Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +4.5 v. California | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
111 Arizona State at California Last week we faded an Arizona State team that was ranked 24th in the country. It paid off as Colorado won outright. This week we fade another overrated PAC12 team as Cal enters this contest ranked 15th. Knowing how to read the betting markets is a key to making a living in this industry. Here we see the ranked California team being installed as a 5 1/2 point favorite as an opener. Since that time a steady stream of money has come in on the unranked visitor. And we fully agree with that market move. Cal has been out gained in all three FBS contests. The key to the Bears victories was a +3 turnover margin. That’s not likely to continue this week as Arizona State has an attacking defense that has already forced 13 fumbles on the season. The Sun Devils are also allowing just 3.0 yards per carry. A solid number in what we all expect to be a low scoring game. With Arizona State taking care of the ball with just one interception on the season, we find plenty of value on the dog here. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |
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09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
104 Navy at Memphis This line has bounced around since opening at 11 1/2 on Sunday. It went as low as 10 but was quickly gobbled up. We make this line 15 so we have plenty of value on the host. Navy coming off a rare down season with a 3-10 mark, started the year with impressive wins over Holy Cross and East Carolina. But despite the 87-17 combined winning margin we haven’t really been impressed. Especially considering how disappointing the Pirates of East Carolina have been. Neither of those teams has an offense to challenge this questionable Midshipmen defense. Memphis is coming in off a bye, which gives the team extra time to prepare for the option. That’s a key ingredient in this handicap. The Tigers are also a perfect 7-0 ATS over the last five seasons coming in off a bye. Mike Norvell has really had his team ready with extra preparation time. He’s covered the number by a combined 56 1/2 points in his five games after a bye. Memphis is also looking to avenge a 22-21 loss last year in Annapolis. With Navy riding a ten game straight up losing streak on the road, we fire on the home favorite here. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh +12 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 51 h 54 m | Show |
320 Central Florida at Pittsburgh The Knights had their major show me game last week while hosting Stanford. While the team won by 18, we weren’t overly impressed. Stanford hasn’t looked good in any game this year, and the long trip to Florida certainly wasn’t the best of spots for the Cardinal. That game was sandwiched by two conference games with USC and Oregon. Pitt has played a much improved Virginia, the MAC favorite Ohio U and a very good Penn State squad. In those games the Panthers have outgained the opposition by a combined 229 yards. With just Delaware on deck we can see the host taking this one to the wire. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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09-21-19 | Washington -6 v. BYU | Top | 45-19 | Win | 100 | 51 h 48 m | Show |
349 Washington at BYU This is the first road game of the season for the Huskies, who are 17-9 straight up away under Chris Peterson. Washington pounded the Cougars 35-7 a year ago, and the talent levels haven’t changed much. The records show that BYU is 2-1 on the season. But this team has been outgained and out first downed each and every week. The Cougars are being outgained on the ground by 1.16 yards per carry. Last week was the first time in four seasons under Kalani Sitake that BYU covered as a home dog. Now 1-4-1 catching points at home. We simply don’t trust the Cougars to keep this close. Washington has the much better athletes and a superior coaching staff. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe v. Iowa State -18 | Top | 20-72 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show |
312 Louisiana Monroe at Iowa State Many will point to how well the Warhawks played at Florida State last week. But the Seminoles have struggled mightily this season. Despite the 45-44 loss, ULM lost yardage by 82 and had a +2 turnover margin. Since 2015 when playing at a power five program the Warhawks have lost by 49, 38, 32, 28, 51, 42, 34 and 37 points. That was until last weeks contest at Florida State. On the other hand Iowa State lost to Iowa 18-17, despite losing the turnover battle by 2. The Cyclones outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 total yards. After back to back tight contests, we expect the Cyclones to take out some frustrations here. Iowa State is allowing just 2.15 yards per carry. This defense will force ULM into many third and long situations. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -8 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 32 m | Show |
310 Air Force at Boise State Some money has come in on the Falcons, but we are not in agreement. Maybe it was a head fake trying to get this down to seven, but regardless we like the home favorite here. Second straight road game for Air Force who just knocked off Colorado on the road. While the Falcons got the victory, the game grade points out that they were fortunate with the win. Colorado is +7 on the season in turnovers, so we don’t rate the Buffaloes nearly as high as others. Air Force currently ranks 13th in the country in rushing at 6.04 yards per carry. But that was against two poor rush defenses. Boise State is permitting 3.54 yards per carry which ranks 50th. But they faced Florida State who averages 3.86 ypc, and Marshall who averages 5.99 yards per carry. Which illustrates just how good this Broncos rush defense has been. Unlike non conference opponents that face the option rarely, Boise State faces the Falcons every season. The last two years Boise has won by margins of 10 and 25 points. We expect another double digit home victory on Friday. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-14-19 | Florida State v. Virginia -7 | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
190 Florida State at Virginia The Seminoles survived last weeks 45-44 victory over Louisiana Monroe. After two games this Florida State defense has been on the field for 187 total plays. The Seminoles defense ranks 118th in the country in allowing explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Virginia on the other hand ranks 22nd in that same category. Despite entering play with a -1 turnover margin, the Cavaliers have outgunned the opposition by a combined 365 yards. The win over Pittsburgh 30-14 looks much better after the Panthers pounded the MAC favorite Ohio 20-10 last week. Florida State hasn’t fared well when getting hit in the face this season. The team gets off to a nice start, but once trouble starts this team has shown little character. Bronco Mendenhall always gets the best out of his players. And the host has the much more complete team. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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09-14-19 | Texas State +17.5 v. SMU | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
179 Texas State at SMU Coming off a game in which it outplayed Wyoming in a loss. We are willing to back under the radar Texas State to keep this one interesting. QB Frank Harris has posted a 71.7% completion rate on the season and has enough talent to keep this SMU offense off the field. SMU is off a solid win over North Texas, and has a step up game against instate host TCU next week. Nice spot and value on the instate underdog here. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-14-19 | Army -17 v. UTSA | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
141 Army at UTSA The Black Knights took the Wolverines to overtime last week. Despite the loss the Cadets were the better squad. Normally you would look for a letdown here from a normal football team, but military squads are much stronger mentally. Army only has Morgan State on deck, and you have to feel that last week will bring them in with positive momentum. The Road Runners have a conference game with North Texas on deck, after facing off with the Big 12 entrant Baylor. This will be the first time Texas San Antonio has faced off against an option squad. So how much prep will they have considering the spot. Keep in mind UTSA ranks 111th in explosiveness. Not a good sign when taking on a team that will dominate the clock. PLAY ARMY |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -2.5 | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 1 m | Show | |
104 North Carolina at Wake Forest Tar Heels have gotten off to an impressive start with victories over South Carolina and Miami Florida. But going out on the road for your first true away game on a short week is going to be very difficult, especially after facing a physical Hurricanes stop unit. North Carolina was 0-6 SU last year and 2-9 SU the past two seasons. Only one road game last year was decided by less than seven points. Keep in mind despite the 28-25 home win over Miami, the Tar Heels were outgunned by 99 yards. Wake Forest is also off to a nice 2-0 start with wins over Utah State and Rice. This is a great spot for the Demon Deacons, off Rice and with Elon on deck. Dave Clawson has been a money maker since coming to Winston-Salem with a 32-26-2 spread record. After back to back three win seasons, his teams have won seven games or more the last three years. This squad can start the year 4-0 with a victory here. A huge season could be in store with Boston College, Louisville and Florida state upcoming. In fact, the game at Clemson in mid-November could be Wake’s only loss on the year. But we are getting way ahead of ourselves in that regard. Our numbers show Wake to be the better team and the scheduling spot gives us even more ammunition. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-07-19 | Stanford +3 v. USC | Top | 20-45 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
385 Stanford at USC Both teams will be without its starting quarterback this week, as both suffered injuries in last weeks games. While the drop-off is much more devastating for the Trojans. New Stanford starter Davis Mills was a highly recruited player, while USC’s signal caller was a 3* recruit who was fourth on the depth chart just a month ago. Stanford has won outright 4 of the last 6 meetings in this building, and the Cardinal have a huge coaching advantage. Stanford is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog under David Shaw and 31-14 straight up on the road. USC is now 3-10 ATS as a home favorite the past 2+ years under Clay Helton. PLAY STANFORD |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington -13.5 | 20-19 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
388 California at Washington Major revenge game here for the Huskies who lost 12-10 last year in Berkeley. Word out of Seattle is that former Georgia Bulldog Jacob Eason is making a strong case for this Huskies offense. Washington put up 47 points last week against a very good FCS program Eastern Washington. Eason has a 190 passer rating in that contest. We all know about this defense which held the opposition to just 4.2 yards per play. California only averaged 21.5 points per game a year ago, and managed just 27 last week against Cal Davis. The Bears ended last season scoring 15 points or fewer in 6 of its last 7 games. Can’t see how Cal can score enough points to keep it close against this terrific Washington defense. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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09-07-19 | Tulane v. Auburn -17 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
372 Tulane at Auburn Now that this line has come into range we are going to pounce on this cheaply priced favorite. Tulane ran the ball right down the throat of the FIU defense last week, averaging 7.1 yards per carry on 49 attempts. That’s just what the Green Wave do. But that was against a smaller defense, not one of the biggest and fastest in the country like you find in the SEC. Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in college football. Last week the Tigers held the Ducks to just 2.7 yards per carry. A team with an NFL ready quarterback and a dangerous offense. Many will talk about the letdown after a last second victory. That is why this line has dropped. But we now have a huge point spread advantage, as this has been a huge reaction. No way this situation is worth five points or more in the betting line. This price is one hell of a bargain. PLAY AUBURN |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska -4 v. Colorado | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 45 m | Show | |
331 Nebraska at Colorado Nebraska struggled in a 35-21 win over South Alabama last week. Despite putting up 35 points the team only averaged 2.2 npc and 4.2 yards per play. It was the Cornhuskers defense that was dominant. It’s quite possible that the players looked past the Sun Belt entrant with Colorado revenge on deck. The Buffaloes beat Colorado State 52-31 but really struggled to put away a bad FBS team. The Rams ran for 4.2 npc and averaged 6.5 yards per play. While the Colorado offense looked impressive, it did so against a Colorado State defense that permitted 37 points per game a year ago and return just six defensive starters. Before last week our numbers had Nebraska to win this game by 8 points. This line has moved too much off last weeks results. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse +1.5 v. Maryland | 20-63 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
317 Syracuse at Maryland What a difference in the line when you blow out a nobody 79-0. Maryland crushed Howard last week and now the markets are buying into the Terrapins. The same Maryland team who made a terrible higher of Mike Locksley as head coach. Sure he’s a solid recruiter, but he’s never shown the ability to lead a team. He was 2-26 at New Mexico before being fired. He was an assistant here and his teams never won more than seven games in any of his four years. Yes, he was offensive coordinator at Alabama the past two seasons, but just about any coach can have success there with that elite talent. Syracuse has a proven head coach in Dino Babers, who took this team from a four win squad in his first year to ten wins last season. Babers won 18 games in two seasons at Bowling Green. The Falcons won nine total in the three years since he has left. Before last week we had Syracuse rated eight points higher than the Terrapins. After each team shutout its opening week opponent, the market is saying Syracuse is just one point better? We don’t buy it. Plenty of added value on the visitor here. Btw, Babers is 9-3 ATS here as a road underdog. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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09-01-19 | Houston v. Oklahoma -22 | 31-49 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 43 m | Show | |
216 Oklahoma at Houston Love the Houston quarterback D’Eriq King who had an outstanding QBR of 167 last season. He brings back a talented offense, but we have major concerns about this Cougars defense. The team permitted 37.2 points per game a year ago, and that was with #9 NFL draft pick Ed Oliver. Oklahoma has set offensive records each of the last two years, and brings in former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts. The concern is a depleted offensive line that lost four players in the first four rounds of the draft. While the offense is likely to see some regression, we love the defensive moves in the offseason. The defensive key is the new defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. He did wonders with Washington State in his two years there. Word from camp is the entire defense is buying in, and key defensive linemen have built up muscle while losing weight. That should really work well against this type of offense in Houston. While we expect this game to be extremely high scoring, we expect the Sooners to threaten 60 points. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | Top | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
209 Louisiana Tech at Texas Skip Holtz is on a 14-4-1 ATS run as a road underdog. His teams are on a 16-9 spread run against non-conference opponents. With Grambling State on deck you know his team will be all in to knock off a major conference heavyweight. For some reason Texas has gotten a great deal of hype in the offseason. For the life of us we can’t understand why. In the past five seasons the Longhorns have only had 13 players drafted, including two last year. Under Tom Herman Texas is 1-6 ATS as a double digit favorite. Herman’s role is that of an underdog. Last year they had nine of its 14 games decided by seven points or less. Texas is 3-7 as a home favorite under Herman and the team has a huge game hosting LSU on deck. This is a dangerous spot for the Longhorns. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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08-30-19 | Utah State +5 v. Wake Forest | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show | |
147 Utah State at Wake Forest The Aggies are coming off a tremendous season that saw Matt Wells leave for a higher paying job. Gary Anderson returns to Logan after a previous stint from 2009-2012. Anderson posted a 15-5 ATS mark here in non-conference action. While many have pointed to the return of just nine starters, the team brought back just nine starters a year ago and won 11 games. The key is returning starting QB Jordan Love, the best quarterback in the Mountain West Conference. We highly respect Wake coach Dave Clawson, but we don’t expect much out of this squad this season. The Demon Deacons are second to last in the ACC in recruiting, and this offense is sure to regress this season. Every newsletter we read favored Wake Forest here, and yet the line hasn’t risen. That’s because the smart money knows how good this Aggies team really is. Sure, we would rather have Matt Wells on the sideline, but if he was still here Utah State may have been favored. Better quarterback and the stronger defense as an underdog is something we rarely see. PLAY UTAH STATE |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane OVER 58 | 14-42 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
137 Florida International at Tulane The Panthers have gone over on the road in 11 of its last 14 games. This is a team bringing back 16 starters, eight on the offensive side of the ball. Tulane games averaged 54.3 and 56.7 points the past two seasons. Willie Fritz brought in a new offensive coordinator and the team is looking to play at a faster pace in 2019. PLAY OVER |
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01-01-19 | Texas +11.5 v. Georgia | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show | |
277 Texas & Georgia in New Orleans The Longhorns lost just two of its last 11 regular season games. The defeats coming to Oklahoma State by 3 points and West Virginia by a single point. Texas also split against Oklahoma losing the conference championship. Tom Herman has been an excellent underdog regardless of where he has coached. Off his worst loss of the season we expect the best out of this Texas squad. Georgia is an elite team that deserved to be in the final four. It was even more pronounced after Notre Dame was pounded by Clemson. But the question to be asked is how is this team going to get up to play Texas here, after being so close to playing for the national title. This is the least important bowl game in the Kirby Smart era. Georgia has the superior talent, but winning by this margin is very questionable. We know what we are going to get out of the Longhorns, not so much out of the Bulldogs. PLAY TEXAS |
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01-01-19 | LSU v. Central Florida +7.5 | 40-32 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 51 m | Show | |
275 LSU & UCF in Glendale The Tigers were a bit overrated all season but still ended up cashing half its games. When breaking down how it did against elite opponents LSU went 1-3 SU with the only victory coming against Georgia in a game with a +4 turnover advantage. Losses to Florida, Alabama and Texas A&M were understandable. Central Florida obviously played a much easier schedule, which is the main reason the winning streak is still intact. Last year the Knights beat fellow SEV squad Auburn in the Peach Bowl 34-27. But the Tigers chain they were disinterested in playing. The key to this game in Central’s ability to run the football against this very talented LSU front seven. We believe UCF can score enough in this game to take it to the wire. The loss of QB Milton hurts, but the backup has had plenty of reps in the last month. Too many points here for the Tigers to lay. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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12-31-18 | Northwestern +6.5 v. Utah | 31-20 | Win | 102 | 6 h 35 m | Show | |
265 Northwestern & Utah in San Diego The Wildcats are 5-3 ATS the last decade in bowl games, winning 3 of the last 4 in straight up fashion. Pat Fitzgerald is an excellent coach who gets the best out of his players when not at a major talent disadvantage. Wins over Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Iowa, should prepare his team today. Kyle Whittingham is also a coach that deserves accolades. His only losses this year were to Washington, Washington State and Arizona State, three teams that went bowling. But when looking at quality wins the best we can come up with are Stanford and BYU. We have these two clubs rated much closer than the current number, which is why we feel the victor gets the win by a field goal or less. Plenty of value on the Big 10 here. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +1.5 v. Oregon | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
261 Michigan State & Oregon in Santa Clara Mark Dantonio is a coach we are looking to back this time of year. His teams are 5-1 SU & ATS in bowl season as of late, with the only loss coming at the hands of Nick Saban and Alabama. We have no problem fading a PAC12 team in this price range, as the conference as a whole has been a major disappointment. There is some excitement in Eugene with Justin Herbert returning behind center for another season, but he wasn’t overly impressive this year. Michigan State is the better coached team and gets the victory here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson -12 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
256 Notre Dame & Clemson at Arlington Just about everyone we respect in the gambling community rates Notre Dame outside of the top four by power ratings. Georgia would have been a ten point favorite over the Irish on a neutral field. So while Notre Dame went undefeated, keep in mind the only real team it beat was Michigan in the season opener. Clemson has the postseason pedigree that the Irish lack. The Tigers have played in the national semi-final each of the last three seasons. The defense could be the best in the nation even with the drug suspensions. In our eyes the starting quarterback is the most pro ready signal caller in the country, even without starting the season behind center. Clemson, Oklahoma and Alabama are elite, Notre Dame is on another lower level. PLAY CLEMSON |
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12-29-18 | Arkansas State +2 v. Nevada | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
245 Arkansas State & Nevada in Arizona Wrong team is favored in our eyes as the Red Wolves take much better care of the ball that the Wolf Pack. Arkansas State lost the turnover battle just twice all season. Arkansas State has posted eight straight winning seasons, with this being the eighth straight bowl game for the Red Wolves. The final four games of the season saw this squad allow just 54 combined points. Nevada lost the turnover battle in 7 of 11 FBS games. Keep in mind this club won just three games last year and haven’t been to a bowl since 2015. Wrong team favored. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin +130 | 3-35 | Win | 130 | 4 h 20 m | Show | |
238 Miami Florida & Wisconsin at New York Warm weather squad Miami has to travel to the Bronx in order to avenge the Orange Bowl loss of a year ago. While Miami enters this game at 7-5, none of the wins came against a team having a quality year. Toledo, FIU, North Carolina, Florida State and Virginia Tech all had down years. The victory over Pittsburgh was the week before the Panthers had to play Clemson in the ACC Final. Wisconsin had a disappointing season as well with the best quality wins coming against Purdue and Iowa, both on the road. The weather is obviously a benefit for the Badgers here, as well as the strong run game of Wisconsin. Teams that run the football have a solid advantage in timing over a passing team that hasn’t played in 34 days. And Coach Rich has decided to bring back Rosier under center, who has gotten little play as of late. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
232 Minnesota & Georgia Tech in Detroit Michigan From purely a mathematical comparison this line is pretty accurate. But that doesn’t count the situational advantage for the Yellow Jackets. Paul Johnson is leaving the program after his 11th year at Georgia Tech. In those eleven years this team has been bowling eight years, but only once the past three years. It’s important for this program to get back to a bowl, but more important as it will be Johnson’s final game on the sidelines. We saw the emotional edge a final game can make Monday night in Oakland as the Raiders played its best game of the season in its last home game in the city of Oakland. We expect more of the same here as Paul Johnson is one of the most respected coaches in college football. Minnesota was extremely pleased to get PJ Fleck to come to Minneapolis and take over the team last year. But in two years his teams have an 11-13 overall record. That’s worse than the previous five seasons under Jerry Kill and Tracy Claey.While the Golden Gophers have the better special teams, and the motive of finishing with a winning record, the line should still be closer to double digits. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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12-22-18 | Houston v. Army -5.5 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show | |
224 Houston at Army The Cougars are without its excellent quarterback and one of the top picks in the upcoming draft in Ed Oliver. The word we are getting out of Texas is that this team is not overly excited to be playing in its own state. The Cougars also played in this bowl just four years ago. Army had an outstanding season when compared to preseason expectations. Military schools have been big money makers in bowl season historically. The line contunues to go up on this game and we want to get it before it hits the key numbers of 6 and 7. Even though we have Army winning by double digits, it's a better value now as opposed to what we will see at game time. PLAY ARMY |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest v. Memphis -3 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -114 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
222 Wake Forest & Memphis in Birmingham Deacons heading to a bowl for the third year in a row after not bowling for four years. Entering the postseason at 6-6 is an advantage for Wake, as the team can produce a winning season with a victory. That said, we were a bit disappointed in this team on the year as it just didn’t produce when stepping up in class. Other than the nationally televised shocker against NC State, this team really hasn’t beaten a quality team this season. Sure the team ended the regular season with a blowout victory over Duke, but the Blue Devils were simply not the same team in the second half of the season. Memphis has lost three bowl games in the past three seasons. It’s much more important for Mike Norvell’s crew to taste postseason victory. This is also one of the Top 10 rushing teams in the country, and that’s a big advantage in bowl season. While passing teams don’t have that week to week consistency, running teams don’t have those timing issues. We look for a high scoring game with the Tigers reaching the end zone on a consistent basis. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -3 v. South Florida | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
215 Marshall & South Florida in Tampa The Thundering Herd are 6-0 SU & ATS since Doc Holliday took over the program nine years ago. This is one team you can always count on to give its best during the bowl season. Last time out Marshall lost at Virginia Tech in a throw away game, vs an opponent who needed the win to go bowling. Now off a loss we are getting a motivated team that won’t take USF lightly as the Bulls will be playing at home. Unlike the last three seasons USF doesn’t get to leave home for a bowl. That has to be a disappointment for these players. So how inspired will they be after finishing the season with five straight losses. After 10 and 11 win seasons previous to this year we can’t see any motivation from the host. The Better team is favored but the line should be even higher. PLAY MARSHALL |
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12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 55 h 13 m | Show |
213 Ohio U & San Diego State in Frisco Texas The Bobcats were a bit of an underachiever during the regular season, as this team was expected to run away with the MAC East division. But in retrospect the Bobcats only conference losses were to Miami Ohio on the road by 2, and at Northern Illinois by 3. Ohio was a combined -3 in turnovers in those games. Frank Solich has one of the most senior laden teams in the country, and after coming up short in league play you know this class wants to go out with a bang in this bowl game. San Diego State also underperformed this season, ending the regular part of the schedule losing 4 of 5 games with the only victory being an 8 point win at New Mexico. In the last eight seasons Rocky Long’s teams are just 4-4 straight up in bowl action. San Diego State was favored in 6 of those 8 bowl games. He treats these games as more of a preseason game for the following season, as opposed to just about every other coach. We expect more of the same here after losing at Hawaii outright as an 18 point favorite to end the regular season. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 54 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
206 Arizona State & Fresno State in Las Vegas The Sun Devils have a long history off high scoring bowl games. In the last seven years we have seen 83, 85, 67, 60, 90 and 80 withpoints scored in the six times Arizona State has gone bowling. But this isn’t your typical Sun Devil team, and Fresno State is not your typical defensive opponent. The last three seasons this club permitted 32.8, 39.8 and 33.5 points per game. But this season the opposition has scored 35 or more just twice all year. Fresno State has held every opponent this season to 27 points or less. Last year the Bulldogs allowed just 17.9 points per game. This has been an elite defense under Jeff Tedford. Fresno held PAC 12 representative UCLA to just 14 points earlier this season, with a 34% offensive success rate. We look for a defensive battle here. PLAY UNDER |
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12-15-18 | Tulane -3 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 191 h 52 m | Show |
203 Tulane & Louisiana at Orlando Louisiana lost its conference championship to Appalachian State, and failed to make its preferred bowl in New Orleans. Louisiana had made that bowl game its own with it becoming a goal before the season. Now it must travel to Orlando, which isn’t a bad second choice. That said, the team wasn’t overly excited about it early on, which may give us a nice edge here. Keep in mind the Rain’ Cajuns have been bowling five of the last seven years. Tulane is a 6-6 team that hasn’t been to a bowl since 2013. This is a team that wants to end the season with a win and finish with a winning record. Teams entering bowls at 6-6 have been a very nice point spread play. In that last bowl game the Green Wave lost to this Louisiana team 24-21, so there is some revenge in mind. PLAY TULANE |
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12-01-18 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh UNDER 53 | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 32 h 42 m | Show | |
320 Pittsburgh at Clemson The Panthers are a team that prefers to run the ball and play defense. It will be very difficult for this team to have success on the ground against this stout Clemson stop unit. But this Pitt defense could be good enough to keep this game close. The last four games this stop unit has been outstanding with 20.0, 35.3, 39.0 and 38.0% success rates. Sure this Clemson scoring unit is superior to Miami, Wake, VT and Virginia, but without the Panthers putting points on the board this total is way too high. PLAY UNDER |
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12-01-18 | Akron v. South Carolina -29.5 | 3-28 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 16 m | Show | |
332 Akron at South Carolina A disappointing season for the Zips comes to a close with an added game at South Carolina. Because of the opening game at Nebraska being cancelled the Zips needed to take this game to fill out the schedule. With a four win season Akron has no way of going to the postseason, so its hard to understand the emotion here with a four game losing streak on the line. South Carolina is off a loss to rival Clemson, but the Gamecocks actually played pretty well in covering that number. In fact, South Carolina has cashed three straight FBS games as of late. With the future looking brighter for the host we can really see this team motivated to end the season with a blowout victory. The offense has been rolling and the defense steps way down in class. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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11-24-18 | Utah State v. Boise State -3 | Top | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
182 Utah State at Boise State The Aggies have gotten a lot of well deserved publicity this season by blowing out lesser opponents. But in looking back at the schedule this club has only played two decent opponents, Michigan State and BYU. Each of those games were played while fully rested. The Spartans in the opening game and BYU off a bye. Coming off games against Colorado State, San Jose State, Hawaii and New Mexico, this team isn’t prepared to step up to this level. Boise State has won 4 of the last 5 meetings in this series. Boise State faced Troy, Oklahoma State, San Diego State, Nevada, BYU and Fresno State this season. This club has been tested much more than the Aggies. We back the home favorite here. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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11-23-18 | Virginia -4 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -113 | 52 h 34 m | Show |
139 Virginia at Virginia Tech Talk about a one-sided rivalry. The Hokies have won 14 straight games in this series. But this year the Cavaliers are the much better team and the line shows it. While Virginia lost in overtime last week to Georgia Tech, the Cavaliers had a 55.7% to 31.7% successful play advantage. The Hokies have lost four straight games, failing to cover the number by a combined 75 1/2 points. The defense has allowed 38, 52, 31 and 49 points in those games. We want no part of the host here as Virginia finally gets that monkey off its back. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State +14.5 v. Air Force | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 34 m | Show | |
111 Colorado State at Air Force This is truly a rivalry game as neither team has enough wins to go bowling this year. The Rams defense was horrendous in the early part of the schedule, but since getting into conference play has been better. Last year the Rams were a 10 point favorite in this contest, that’s a 24 1/2 point change in line from two teams that aren’t good enough to go bowling. This is also a big drop in opponent strength after facing Utah State and Nevada the past two weeks. Air Force just doesn’t deserve to be a favorite of this size. PLAY COLORADO STATE |
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11-20-18 | Northern Illinois -5.5 v. Western Michigan | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
101 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan We’ve been dead on with the Huskies this season, including fading them last Wednesday hosting Miami Ohio. This by far has been our most profitable handicap this season in the MAC. Despite having one less day to prepare we will jump back on the Huskies here, who look to improve on an 8-1 SU mark in this series. Even though Northern Illinois lost to Miami last week 13-7, the team once again shut down the opposition defensively. Miami only managed 23.1% successful offensive plays. On the conference season opponents are only averaging 31.2% successful offensive plays against this defense. Western has faded badly since a 51-24 home loss to Toledo. This team is 0-3 SU & ATS as of late with a negative turnover margin of 6 during those games. The Broncos have failed to cover a game this season when losing the turnover battle, 0-6. Look for the better team to bounce back here with a solid victory. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-17-18 | UAB +15.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 20-41 | Loss | -109 | 126 h 29 m | Show |
385 UAB at Texas A&M Blazers enter this game on an eight game winning streak with a rare chance to play at an SEC school. As opposed to the vast majority of teams in Conference USA, UAB has a defense that can compete against elite offenses. A&M has LSU on deck and have lost six straight to the Aggies since joining the SEC. You know that game is high on the priority list for Jimbo Fisher and his first year team. After breaking a two game losing streak with a 38-24 win over Mississippi last week, we can see UAB giving the Aggies all they can handle here. PLAY UAB |
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11-17-18 | Virginia +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 50 h 32 m | Show | |
327 Virginia at Georgia Tech Bronco Mendenhall is very familiar with the option offense, facing it the last two seasons against these Yellow Jackets, and for many years against Air Force when he was at BYU. This defense has held the opposition to only 38.3% successful plays this season. Only twice has a team put up more than 24 points against this defense. Georgia Tech has won three straight and comes into this game on a nice roll. But a closer look at the opposition shows all three opponents it beat have been disappointing this season. Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Miami Florida have all failed to meet preseason expectations. We back the much better defense to easily cover this number. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-15-18 | Tulane v. Houston -10 | Top | 17-48 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
312 Tulane at Houston The Green Wave haven’t had a game all season in which it reached league average offensive success. In fact the last five games Tulane has 31.0%, 35.6%, 35.0%, 33.0% and 25.0% offensive success rates. It’s tough to come back if you fall behind, especially against a Houston team on a mission. Not only have the Cougars lost its last two games, but it lost at Tulane last year as a 9 1/2 point road dog. The Cougars have scored 31 points or more in every FBS game this season, can’t see Tulane putting enough points on the board to keep this one close. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-14-18 | Miami-OH +7 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
305 Miami Ohio at Northern Illinois Major motivational edges in this one as the Redhawks need to finish the season with wins here and at home vs Ball State next week to become bowl eligible. Miami’s offense has been as consistent as anyone in this conference, scoring 30 points or more in every league game. This team is also very strong in the trenches which is a key against Northern Illinois. We’ve been big fans of the Huskies this year and have cashed some quality bets with them. But after Western Michigan took the loss yesterday, the Huskies motivation this week is tempered. Rival Western Michigan is up on deck, followed by the Mid-American Conference Championship the following week. Just can’t see Rod Carey’s team playing with the type of emotion needed to cover this number. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-10-18 | Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | 21-27 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 34 m | Show | |
139 Miami Florida at Georgia Tech The Hurricanes have lost three straight games heading into this contest, all as point spread favorites. So we are buying this Miami team at a season low, and this is the first time all season Miami has been installed as an underdog. Georgia Tech has been held below its season average each of the past five years against Miami. This is a team that dominates teams that don’t see the option on a regular basis. But Miami has the athletes to slow down this running game. Georgia Tech is on a high right now off back to back double digit victories. Buy low, sell high. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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11-10-18 | Oklahoma State +21 v. Oklahoma | 47-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
151 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma The Cowboys have dropped 3 of 4 games as of late, losing as a favorite three times. But a win over Oklahoma would make the season for this team. Oklahoma State has dropped this in-state rivalry by double digits each of the past three seasons. But this line is simply too high. For Oklahoma the season comes down to the trip to West Virginia on the 23rd. There is no lookahead with Kansas on deck. That said, the Sooners haven’t played too many quality offenses until last week at Texas Tech. Despite the win Oklahoma permitted 46 points. We expect the Sooners to easily stay under this number. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-10-18 | Kentucky -5 v. Tennessee | 7-24 | Loss | -111 | 25 h 11 m | Show | |
125 Kentucky at Tennessee Despite the loss last week the Wildcats still have a lot to play for. This should be its toughest test the remainder of the season with Middle Tennessee and Louisville to finish off the year. The Wildcats have played very well on the road with wins over Florida, Missouri and went to overtime at Texas A&M. Tennessee peaked a month ago with a 30-24 win at Auburn. But when looking at successful offensive plays Tennessee was at 32% while Auburn came in at 45%. The Volunteers have only outplayed one team all season in successful play percentage, and that was the pathetic UTEP Miners. Oh yeah, the Volunteers failed to cover that game by 9 1/2 points. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-10-18 | Wisconsin +9 v. Penn State | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
179 Wisconsin at Penn State Looks like a down season for both these programs. But we happen to like the Badgers catching all these points. Despite the 31-17 win over Rutgers, Wisconsin crushed the Scarlet Knights in offense success rate 62.5% to 25.0%. So we once again look to back a team that is low in the betting markets. Penn State has struggled this season when playing quality opposition. Had to go to overtime hosting Appalachian State, lost to Ohio State at home producing just 30.3% offense success rate. Lost to Michigan State at home, scoring just 17 points. Struggled to beat Iowa at home 30-24, and were blown out last week at Michigan 42-7. No way this team deserves to be this size favorite. PLAY WISCONSIN |
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11-09-18 | Louisville +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 23-54 | Loss | -109 | 77 h 24 m | Show |
111 Louisville at Syracuse Talk about an overreaction! Sure Louisville gave up 77 points last week to one of the top two teams in the nation. Yes, the team allowed 56 and 38 the previous two games. But when comparing season long power ratings, season long play success percentages, and last three games play success percentages, we can only see this line topping out at -16. Keep in mind the Cardinals are the only team in the country to play Alabama and Clemson, and the average line in those games was 31 1/2. Two weeks ago Louisville was a 3 point home favorite to Wake Forest, last week Syracuse was a 7 point road favorite at the Demon Deacons. That would make the Orangemen 10 points better than the Cardinals on a neutral field. Add the 3 points for home field advantage and you have a -13 line. Nowhere near where this number is currently. The last four years Syracuse has lost to Louisville by margins of 46, 34, 24 and 22 points. Throw in the fact that Syracuse has the opportunity to knock off undefeated Notre Dame in the Bronx next week, and we are all in with the ugly dog on Friday night. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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11-07-18 | Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3 | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 55 h 38 m | Show | |
106 Toledo at Northern Illinois The Rockets offense has shown itself the past two weeks with success rates of 54.1% against Ball State and 53.0% vs Western Michigan. But the previous week this offense was held to 24.0% against a good defense in Buffalo, and this Huskies stop unit resembles the Buffalo stop unit much better than the last two opponents. Northern Illinois was our pick for the conference title preseason, and now that conference action is in full swing we like the Huskies chances. This is a team that is undefeated in MAC play with the only losses coming at Iowa and Florida State, and hosting Utah. We get the much better stop unit at home laying a small number. Let the general public back the inconsistent high scoring team, we like MAC defense. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-03-18 | Georgia v. Kentucky +10 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 28 m | Show |
330 Georgia at Kentucky There two teams have played virtually identical schedules which means the advanced stats really come into play here. The Bulldogs offense has been good this year with a 50.9% success rate, but the defense has been roughly FBS average at 41.5%. The team has been fortunate in turnovers at +5 on the season, while the play in the trenches has been average at best. Kentucky has a 39.6% offensive success rate with is slightly below the FBS average, but the defense has an outstanding 35.4% success rate. On the season the Wildcats are even in turnovers, but have had terrific sack numbers in the trenches. The Wildcats only loss came in overtime to a very good Texas A&M squad, while Georgia’s only loss came at LSU. We have this game much closer to a pick ‘em than the current line, which puts us squarely on the defensive dog in this key showdown. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-03-18 | Kansas State v. TCU -8 | Top | 13-14 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
400 Kansas State at TCU It’s been a tough season in Manhattan, as the once dominant Bill Snyder hasn’t been able to get this team to play with heart. Other than the 31-12 win over Oklahoma State at home, the Wildcats haven’t been the fighting underdogs of yesteryear. The defense is allowing 54.7% successful offensive plays which isn’t what this team is used to. The Horned Frogs are looking for some payback as the last time Kansas State visited Fort Worth the Wildcats came away with a 30-6 victory. TCU has dropped three straight heading into this contest, and are off an embarrassing loss to Kansas. But the advanced numbers show TCU lost the turnover battle by two and outperformed the Jayhawks in successful plays 53% to 33%. Only Oklahoma has surpassed 47% success against this TCU defense. With an elite coach in Gary Patterson we see a major bounce back here. PLAY TCU |
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11-03-18 | Iowa State -15 v. Kansas | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
387 Iowa State at Kansas Willing to back one of the best young coaches in college football against the weakest team in the conference. The Cyclones have won three straight games and looked really good off its bye week with a 58-40 victory over Texas Tech last week. This is a team that has struggled a bit against excellent passing offenses but have dominated against pedestrian offensive squads. Allowing 13 to Iowa, 13 to Akron, 17 to TCU. The Cyclones also surprisingly held a very good West Virginia offense to just 14 points. Iowa State shut out the Jayhawks 45-0 a year ago. Kansas has played a very weak schedule thus far. The best three teams it played was Oklahoma, West Virginia and Texas Tech. The Jayhawks were outscored in those games by a combined margin of 68 points. On the season this team is only producing 34.1% successful offensive plays. Iowa State is allowing just 38.2% successful offensive plays, and that is against a seven point tougher schedule than the Jayhawks. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-01-18 | Northern Illinois -5 v. Akron | 36-26 | Win | 100 | 74 h 56 m | Show | |
311 Northern Illinois at Akron Huskies have played a four point tougher schedule and still post better advantaged numbers than the Zips. Northern is also fresher playing its second game after a bye while Akron plays its fifth. Northern has a clear advantage defensively allowing just 34.1% success rate on the season. The Huskies are also better in the trenches when looking at the sack rate. Akron does have a pretty good defense allowing just 37.0% successful plays, but that offense is putrid at a 32.1% success rate. The Zips have really struggled to put points on the board against much worse stop units, can’t count on them here against the best defense it has played. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-27-18 | Illinois +18 v. Maryland | 33-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
135 Illinois at Maryland The last two weeks the Illini was a 10 1/2 point home underdog to Purdue, and a 24 point underdog at Wisconsin. If you switch the home field ratings for the Purdue game Illinois would have been at most 15 1/2. Now we find a Maryland team that is far worse laying an inflated number. By our stats Illinois has played a two point tougher schedule than the Terrapins, yet the successful play data only shows Maryland to be about eight points better on a neutral field. This is just too high of a line to not get involved. Maryland gave Rutgers just five points more on this field just two weeks ago. Say what you will about Lovie Smith’s team, it’s not comparable to Rutgers. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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10-27-18 | Cincinnati -8.5 v. SMU | 26-20 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
191 Cincinnati at SMU The Bearcats had its undefeated season end a week ago with an overtime loss to Temple. We were on the Owls in that game and felt we were lucky to get that victory. Even in a loss the Bearcats held a very good Temple team to only 26% successful offensive plays. In fact, on the season Cincinnati is allowing just 30.7% of offensive plays to be successful. While not playing a who’s who of explosive offenses, I don’t care who you played those defensive numbers are outstanding. Now the Bearcats take on another weak offensive team in SMU. The Mustangs have played a 13 point tougher schedule, but the offense still remains subpar. A 28.4% successful play rate on offense just doesn’t inspire much confidence no matter the opposition. We have no problem laying a small number on the road with the much superior stop unit of the Bearcats. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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10-27-18 | Vanderbilt v. Arkansas +1.5 | 45-31 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 60 m | Show | |
194 Vanderbilt at Arkansas Third road game is four weeks for the Commodores who have a bye week on deck. This team just played the three physical defenses of Kentucky, Florida and Georgia. Now it’s installed as a road favorite at Arkansas. Keep in mind Vandy is 2-16 straight up on the SEC road. Arkansas has played a one point tougher schedule and the success rates are exactly the same. Arkansas has struggled against very good offenses like Texas A&M, Mississippi and Alabama. That hasn’t been the case when stepping down in class. The wrong team is favored here as our number shows Arkansas by a field goal. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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10-25-18 | Appalachian State -8 v. Georgia Southern | Top | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
109 Appalachian State at Georgia Southern Much prefer the Mountaineers who have proven themselves on the road with a 3-0 spread mark. That includes an overtime loss at Penn State in the season opener. Last Saturday this team sleepwalked through a ten point home victory over Louisiana. App State has lost the turnover battle twice this year and covered both games by 17 1/2 and 19 1/2 points. The last three seasons the Mountaineers have won this battle by 21, 24 and 18 points. Georgia Southern has won the turnover battle in every game this season, with much of that success coming from a game plan of running the ball down the throats of the opposition. Which makes the Eagles a strong favorite against bad defenses like Massachusetts, South Alabama and New Mexico State. But when playing average or better stop units this team has scored 7, 28 and 15 points. In the last three meetings in this series the Eagles have produced 6, 10 and 13 points. That simply won’t get it done in this contest. PLAY APPALACHIAN STATE |
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10-25-18 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -5.5 | Top | 51-24 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 52 m | Show |
106 Toledo at Western Michigan This is not your typical Toledo football team. Late money came in on the Rockets again last week and it failed to cash once more. The Rockets are 1-5 ATS against FBS competition this season. Toledo is one of the least efficient teams in the country. Offensively just 38.7% of plays grade successful, while 47.1% of defensive plays are successful. That is a very wide negative margin for a team playing in a very weak conference. What’s even more alarming is that this team has only played on the road twice all season. The Rockets continue to be beaten at the line of scrimmage, which should be a major concern this week against Western Michigan. The Broncos despite a 2-5 ATS mark in FBS games, is a team peaking at the right time. Five straight wins for the Broncos and the defense is getting better each and every week. As opposed to the Rockets, this team has played five times on the road, with the only loss coming at Michigan. This line is very cheap as our numbers have the host a double digit favorite. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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10-20-18 | USC +7 v. Utah | Top | 28-41 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
405 USC at Utah Really liking the improvement for the Trojans who have won three straight, with the only losses on the season at Stanford and Texas. Really impressed by this defense who is holding the opposition to just 33.0% successful plays. USC has been outstanding defensively in early down success rate, allowing only 60.2% of first downs on first or second down plays. The Trojans have lost the turnover battle three times yet covered twice, which is a sign of an underrated squad. Utah just demolished Arizona in front of a nationally televised audience last Friday. The week before that the Utes won outright at Stanford. So in stock market parlance Utah is a buying high product at this moment. The Utes defense is better than the FBS average, but the offense is about equal to an average squad. This line should be closer to 3 as opposed to the current number. Plenty of value on the visitor. PLAY USC |
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10-20-18 | NC State +17.5 v. Clemson | 7-41 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 32 m | Show | |
389 NC State at Clemson Yes this is a big step up in class for the Wolfpack, but the results the last two years show us NC State can make this a game. Back to back seven point losses including one in overtime have the Wolfpack entering this contest with great confidence. This club is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS vs FBS competition, and has an NFL ready quarterback. Clemson has what many feel is the best defensive line in college football. But State has only been sacked once all season. It has an 11-1 sack advantage while Clemson’s is 17-8. Two great lines do battle and NC State holds their own in the trenches. Both defenses are outstanding and we expect this to be a lower scoring contest. With points at a premium this line is way too high. PLAY NC STATE |
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10-20-18 | Virginia +7 v. Duke | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
321 Virginia at Duke Only road game in a six week span for the Cavaliers. Virginia has won the past three meetings in this series, with the spreads being 3 1/2 or less. Which is one of the reasons we are looking to take the higher number here with the visitor. The victory over Miami Florida last week wasn’t a fluke. Virginia was even in turnovers in that game, had the higher early down success rate, and the better offensive play success rate. Duke is a quality team but doesn’t deserve to be this high a favorite in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Two of its wins this year came against option based teams. In the other two FBS wins the team took advantage of a combined +4 turnover margin. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-20-18 | Buffalo -1 v. Toledo | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show | |
339 Buffalo at Toledo We missed the best number on this one, but we still have plenty of value to fade what could be the most disappointing team in college football. Buffalo has a huge advantage at the point of attack. The Bulls have a 16-4 sack advantage, while Toledo is down 17-4. You likely won’t see a bigger discrepancy in any game this year. While the offenses are similarly productive, the Bulls only allow a 36.6% success rate on defense. The Bulls are 3-0 straight up on the road including a 36-29 win at Temple. These two programs are heading in opposite directions. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-20-18 | Cincinnati v. Temple -3.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 119 h 27 m | Show |
314 Cincinnati at Temple Bearcats off a bye, but that may put a damper on a team who had won five straight FBS games out of the shoot. While the offense has been pedestrian the defense has been outstanding allowing just 31.7% of plays to be successful. Cincinnati has lost the last three meetings in this series, allowing 34 points or more in every game. Temple has played a six point tougher FBS schedule this season. Even with the tougher competition the Owls advanced stats are just as good as the Bearcats. The offense is slightly better and the defense only permits 33.7% successful plays. What really has our attention is how well Temple does when losing the turnover battle. We all know how hard it is to cover a spread when losing the turnover edge, but the Owls have covered 3 of the 4 games it has done that this season. The last 3+ seasons Temple is 17-6 straight up at Lincoln Financial Field. This number is expected to rise so let’s grab this one now. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-19-18 | Air Force -10 v. UNLV | 41-35 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 35 m | Show | |
309 Air Force at UNLV Now that this line has dropped it’s time to step in with the Falcons. In last years meeting Air Force wore down the Rebels as the game progressed, outscoring UNLV 27-3 in the second half. We expect more of the same here. While the Flyboys offense isn’t quite as good as a season ago, we like what this defense has been doing. The last two games Air Force has held the opposition to 20 and 32% successful offensive plays. Overall 28 combined points allowed against Navy and San Diego State. The Rebels have now played two games without its starting quarterback. The Teams been outscored in that time 109-42. During that period the defense permitted 55 and 57% successful offensive plays. Just can’t trust this home club who hasn’t posted a winning season record at Sam Boys Stadium since 2013. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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10-13-18 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina -6.5 | 45-20 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 5 m | Show | |
124 Louisiana Monroe at Coastal Carolina Terrible spot for the Warhawks who are playing its third straight road game, and fifth in the last six weeks. The last two games have been losses by 49 and 32 points, as ULM continues to have major defensive problems. On the season this team is allowing 56.6% of opponent offensive plays to be successful. Coastal Carolina is 2-2 SU & ATS on the season against FBS opposition. This is only the second FBS home game for the Chanticleers who beat UAB 47-24 earlier. Coastal is also off a bye week, so this team should be much fresher than its opposition. Let’s lay the short number here with the Chanticleers. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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10-13-18 | Texas A&M -2.5 v. South Carolina | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 42 h 48 m | Show | |
121 Texas A&M at South Carolina This Aggies team is much better than its 3-2 SU record in FBS games suggest. Texas A&M is 4-1 ATS despite losing the turnover battle by a combined six through five games. While this team is known for its offense the defense is allowing just 35.9% of plays to be successful. More impressive when you consider it has faced Clemson and Alabama, the two best teams in the country. South Carolina was expected to be very good this year, and are doing pretty well themselves. But our numbers show that defensively this team is virtually average, as opposed to the stout defense that many expected. Coming off a hard fought back and forth game against Missouri, will the Gamecocks have the defense to take down the Aggies? We think not. PLAY TEXAS A&M |
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10-13-18 | Central Florida -4.5 v. Memphis | 31-30 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
183 Central Florida at Memphis We really expected the Knights to take a step back this season after losing Scott Frost to Nebraska. But that hasn’t been the case with UCF going 4-0 SU & ATS vs FBS opposition. The Knights have permitted just two sacks all season, and have allowed just 36.7% successful offensive plays. The Knights are 5-1 ATS as a road favorite the past 2+ seasons. This is a huge revenge game for the Tigers who lost to the Knights 62-55 in double overtime last season. But if you’ve watched Memphis this year it’s clear this isn’t the same quality team. The Tigers have played quite possibly the weakest schedule in the country. Navy, Georgia State, South Alabama, Tulane and Connecticut. None of those teams are any good, including the Midshipmen who are way down from previous editions. The revenge situation will bring money to the Tigers, but UCF is clearly the much better team. Despite the extremely weak schedule Memphis has allowed 11 sacks which producing just 9. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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10-13-18 | Ohio v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 41 h 27 m | Show |
162 Ohio U at Northern Illinois Rough spot for the Bobcats here after a 27-26 comeback victory at Kent State last week. This is the fourth road game in five weeks for Ohio U. This squad has had a tough time on the defensive end this year, despite playing an overall weak slate of offenses. Northern Illinois is back home after three straight road games. The last two being road wins at Eastern Michigan and Ball State. While the offense has been sporadic, the defense has been excellent. On the season the Huskies are allowing just 35.4% of opponent offensive plays to be graded successfully. This team has also done a fine job defending early down success rate. Let’s back the Huskies who have played much better in conference action. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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10-13-18 | Tennessee +15 v. Auburn | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
185 Tennessee at Auburn The Volunteers have played three of the best teams in the country, West Virginia, Florida and Georgia. They enter this game with a -9 turnover margin in FBS contests. But this team is off a bye and now catch over two touchdowns against one of the worst offenses in the power five conferences. Defensively the Tigers are really good, but this offense has done nothing all season. How about a 36.4% successful offensive play percentage. This from a team that has only played one true road game all season. Only once all season in FBS competition this team has scored more than 24 points. This line is way too high in what is expected to be a low scoring game. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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10-12-18 | Arizona +14 v. Utah | 10-42 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 32 m | Show | |
111 Arizona at Utah This Arizona offense isn’t nearly as explosive as a year ago. Mainly because QB Khalil Tate isn’t able to run like in the past. But with the offense being more conservative the defense has improved by leaps and bounds. Utah is coming off back to back conference road games before facing the Wildcats here on a short week. Next week the Utes host traditional league power USC. In looking at successful offensive plays Utah has been below FBS average in all but one game this season, last week at Stanford. So right now the Utes enter this game priced higher than at any time this season. On a short week after its biggest victory of the season. Utah is only averaging 22 points per game against FBS competition, tough to lay this number without offensive explosion ability. ARIZONA |
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10-11-18 | Texas Tech +7 v. TCU | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 52 h 21 m | Show | |
105 Texas Tech at TCU Both teams are coming into this game with uncertainty at the quarterback position. As injuries have affected both starters. But the backups have seen significant time, so we are not worried about who is or isn’t behind center. TCU has had a major problem taking care of the football this season. In four FBS games the Horned Frogs have a -10 turnover margin. This is also a team that has struggled in early down success rate, producing just 59.5% on first downs on first or second down. Texas Tech on the other hand has been much more efficient at 72.8% early down success rate. The Red Raiders have gone on the road and beaten Oklahoma State 41-17 as a 14 1/2 point underdog, the only true road game TT has played this season. This team is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Kliff Kingsbury the past 3+ seasons. We have this game lined more in the field goal range, which gives us plenty of value on the road underdog. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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10-06-18 | Nebraska +19 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show |
409 Nebraska at Wyoming Sports betting is much like playing the stock market, buy when it’s low and sell when it’s high. Here we have one team that is definitely a buy low candidate, while the other team is about to be exposed. Nebraska is 0-4 SU & ATS on the season and have lost the turnover battle in every FBS game. But the advanced stats show some real positives. First off despite trailing most of the games Nebraska actually has a 12 to 11 sack advantage. The Huskers also own a much higher early down success rate than the opposition, 77.8% to 64.5%. While the offense has been pedestrian with a 36.7% offense play success number, the defense has been excellent allowing just 40.1% successful plays. Keep in mind the teams Nebraska have played are a combined 12-5 straight up on the season. Wisconsin is off a bye, but have the big showdown at Michigan next week. It’s quite possible Paul Chryst spent some time the last two weeks preparing for the Wolverines. The Wisconsin offense has been good as always with a 54.6% offensive play success rate, but despite playing very weak scoring units the Badgers are allowing 41.1% of plays to be successful. The Badgers are 1-3 ATS on the season despite a +4 turnover margin. As for the area in which Wisconsin is normally dominant, the Badgers have only gotten 3 sacks on the season while allowing 7 to the opposition. This line has been bet down from the opener and still remains way too high. One of our two power ratings says this should be an 8 point game. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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10-06-18 | UAB +10 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
379 UAB at Louisiana Tech The Blazers came into the season as a team the wise guys were looking to make some money on. But despite a 2-1 spread mark against FBS competition, the hype has somehow quieted. But we aren’t in that majority as we still believe this Blazers team is underrated. The early season 47-24 loss at Coastal Carolina looked bad on the scoreboard, but the advanced stats show a different story. UAB bettered the opposition in early down success rate and were even in play success percentage. UAB has dominated in the trenches this season with a 13-3 sack advantage. Louisiana Tech just knocked off league favorite North Texas, after playing state big brother very well the week before. This is a major letdown situation for the host. Keep in mind despite the 29-27 win at North Texas, the advanced stats showed a different story. In play success rate the Bulldogs lost 47.2% to 39.4%, and won because of a +2 turnover margin. This game should go down to the wire. PLAY UAB |
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10-06-18 | South Alabama +14 v. Georgia Southern | 13-48 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 18 m | Show | |
313 South Alabama at Georgia Southern Third straight road game for the Jaguars. But this is a major drop down in talent after trips to Oklahoma State, Memphis and Appalachian State. It’s also shutout revenge time for South Alabama who lost at Georgia Southern 52-0 last year in the final game of the regular season. While the Jaguars offense has struggled, the defense has played very well considering the strength of the opposition. Allowing 43.8% of opposing plays to be successful, which is right about league average. In fact, despite the 1-4 record the Jaguars are holding their own in line play as they own 11 sacks while allowing just 10. Georgia Southern has cashed all three FBS games this season, but much of that has to do with a +4 turnover advantage. On the season this team is averaging just 38.9% successful offensive plays. In the trenches it’s a 7 to 7 sack rate. With a 52-0 victory against this club fresh in their minds, and a Thursday night showdown on deck vs Texas State, we can see the Eagles looking past the opposition here. Too many points considering the advanced stats and the situation. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 118 h 46 m | Show |
398 Oklahoma & Texas in Dallas The Red River Rivalry resumes with the undefeated Sooners as the favorite. But we are starting to have real doubts about the validity of this team being national championship contenders. While the offense has been as good if not better than expected, let’s take a look at this stop unit. Oklahoma did well in the opening two games against Florida Atlantic and UCLA. But the last three games Oklahoma has permitted 43.1%, 50.6% and 50.0% successful plays to Iowa State, Army and Baylor. They were an average favorite by just over 23 points in those contests. Texas lost the opener at Maryland but has run off four straight victories since then. Defensively the Longhorns have permitted just 21, 14, 16 and 14 points during that streak. No team has sniffed 40% success offensively in those contests. That included blowout wins over USC and TCU. The last four meetings have resulted in seven point or less margins for the winner. Let’s back the much better defense in the underdog role. PLAY TEXAS |
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10-06-18 | Missouri +1 v. South Carolina | Top | 35-37 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 42 m | Show |
335 Missouri at South Carolina Nice spot to back the road Tigers here after suffering its first loss of the season, followed by a bye week. It’s the prime combination for coach Barry Odom to have his teams focus. Especially after losing to the Gamecocks each of the last two years. The Tigers lost by 14 to Georgia but had a better offensive play success rate, 49.4% to 42.9%. This is a team that hasn’t been stopped offensively by any opponent this season. While Missouri was resting, South Carolina is off back to back road games at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Against Kentucky the offense only produced 10 points with a lowly 34.8% offensive success rate. That simply won’t get it done against this high scoring Tigers squad. PLAY MISSOURI |
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10-06-18 | Northwestern +11 v. Michigan State | Top | 29-19 | Win | 100 | 70 h 36 m | Show |
373 Northwestern at Michigan State This is too many points to lay in what is expected to be a low scoring game. Last years contest went to triple overtime before the Wildcats prevailed 39-31. Pat Fitzgerald has been simply amazing in Evanston when installed as a road underdog. With the outright win at Purdue earlier the Wildcats are 24-9 ATS catching points on the road the last 10+ seasons. Michigan State was highly thought of coming into the season, but we never really bought into it. And it’s proven out on the field as Michigan State simply hasn’t dominated against weaker opposition. Despite playing Utah State, Arizona State, Indiana and Central Michigan, the Spartans are only up 117-88. That’s as a combined 62 1/2 combined point favorite. The only somewhat dominant performance was last week against a lower division MAC team, and the Spartans failed to cover by 17 points. With a major trip to Penn State on deck we can’t see the Spartans running away with this one. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas State v. Georgia Southern +3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 32 m | Show | |
164 Arkansas State at Georgia Southern The Red Wolves are 2-1 in FBS action this year with the only loss coming at Alabama. Pretty impressive. Or is it? The 29-20 win at Tulsa showed a 44.9-41.5% successful play advantage for the Golden Hurricane. The reason Ark State won was a +2 turnover margin. Even last week in a non-covering 27-20 win over UNLV the Red Wolves needed a +3 turnover margin. Since turnovers are worth roughly 5 points, both of those victories could have and probably should have been loses. This is also the third road game in four weeks for this squad. Georgia Southern had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, coming after a 31 point loss at Clemson. But the Golden Eagles have cashed both games against FBS competition this year, by a combined 20 points. After a disappointing 2-10 season under first year coach Chad Lunsford, this team is primed to get back to its past success. The Eagles had won 5 or more games in each of the previous nine seasons. With an extra week to prepare and having double revenge this game has been circled in Statesboro. GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-29-18 | Coastal Carolina +14 v. Troy | 21-45 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
197 Coastal Carolina at Troy The Chanticleers have been pretty impressive in the early going with a 2-1 FBS mark. The only loss was at South Carolina, which is a very good team this year. Even in that defeat Coastal Carolina managed a strong 90% early down success rate against that stout defense. Troy’s is a bit overrated right now after back to back road wins at Nebraska and Louisiana Monroe. Despite a 2-1 SU & ATS mark the Trojans have permitted a 48.1% success rate while only producing a 39.9% mark themselves. The team won the turnover margin in both victories. With a short week on deck at it hosts Georgia State on Thursday, we see this as a great spot to fade the Trojans. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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09-29-18 | Kent State +7.5 v. Ball State | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 97 h 23 m | Show |
117 Kent State at Ball State Yes it’s the third straight road game for Kent State, but it’s also the first conference game of the season. The Golden Flashes have been at its best as a road dog with a 13-8 spread mark. Which is pretty impressive considering Kent has a 25-51 straight up record in that time frame. Kent State is already 2-0 ATS when losing the turnover battle, which tells us this team is vastly underrated. Ball State remains winless against FBS competition. A good amount of this line is based on the Cardinals good showing at Notre Dame. But keep in mind that was a major flat spot for the Irish after knocking off Michigan with an SEC opponent on deck. Getting this line in this price range is a bargain. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-29-18 | Temple +13 v. Boston College | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 41 h 42 m | Show | |
127 Temple at Boston College Extra time to prepare for the Owls after beating Tulsa last Thursday. Temple is a nice 13-6 ATS as a road underdog the past 5+ seasons. In three FBS games this team owns a +11 sack ratio, allowing only two sacks during those games. This defense has been outstanding holding the opposition to just 33.1% successful offensive plays. Boston College came into the season with a lot of hype, and started the year 3-0. But last week at Purdue was a wake up call, especially for this offense that only produced 29.3% successful plays. Wins over Massachusetts, Holy Cross and Wake Forest don’t look as impressive now as it did at the time. In a projected to be low scoring game, catching double digits is even more of a bargain. PLAY TEMPLE |
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09-29-18 | Arkansas +21.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 41 h 51 m | Show |
211 Arkansas at Texas A&M We’ve been anti Arkansas and pro Texas A&M all season, and yet we can’t get anywhere near this high a number for this contest. Sports betting is a pendulum where there is a right number for every game. And this one tells us it’s time to back the ugly dog. There was no excuse to lose to a bad Colorado State team, but the Razorbacks had the higher early down success rate in that game 83-71%, as well as the better successful play rate 46.7-41.1%. While losing to North Texas and Auburn is nothing to be ashamed about as those two teams have been bet on squads. A combined -7 turnover margin kept the Razorbacks from cashing in those contests. These teams have met in each of the last nine seasons with the highest spread being 14 points. A&M enters this contest in a tough scheduling spot. Off Alabama and with Kentucky, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Auburn to come. All very good teams that A&M will have problems with. This is the only game Texas A&M will play all season on artificial turf, as it’s a neutral site game in Arlington. Just too many points to lay here for the Aggies. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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09-28-18 | UCLA +11.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-38 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 47 m | Show |
107 UCLA at Colorado Both teams enter this Friday contest off byes last week. UCLA still has not tasted victory with losses to Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State. There is a very real possibility that all three of those teams will be bowling this December. While the UCLA offense is a concern the defense has impressed us. Looking beyond the final scores we see that the Bruins are holding the opposition to just 60% on early down success rate. Just 6 out of ten first downs have been attained on first and second down. That indicates that the defense is much better than what the scoreboard has shown. Despite playing three good football teams, the opposition has only been successful on 45.2% of offensive plays. While that’s higher than league average, it’s much more in line with the early down success rate than the scoreboard. As opposed to the Bruins, Colorado has had an easy schedule of FBS competition. Playing just Colorado State and Nebraska, two teams really struggling out of the gate. Colorado is +2 in turnover advantage, and have lost the sack battle 7 to 5. This is a team that has looked good against inferior competition. The last four meetings in this series have been decided by 4, 10, 4 and 3 points in double overtime. We look for this to be another tight contest. PLAY UCLA |
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09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -11.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
412 Eastern Michigan at San Diego State Long travel scenario for the Eagles who haven’t played in the Pacific Time Zone in at least 20 years. The Eagles have 10 time revenge against Northern Illinois on deck, so we don’t know how much preparation this Chris Creighton team has put into this game. Since it’s the third straight road game this club may use this week as a mini vacation in beautiful California. The Aztecs defense has performed well against Stanford and Arizona State out of the PAC 12. Hosting the Cardinal to only 30.6% successful plays and the Sun Devils to just 41.4%. The offense is right around league average despite being underdogs in both those games. With a bye on deck before a big showdown with Boise State, this is a great spot play on the host. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-22-18 | Louisiana Tech +21 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
383 Louisiana Tech at LSU Rare chance for the Bulldogs to play big brother in the state of Louisiana. The last time these two met was in 2009, a 14 1/2 point cover for La Tech. The Bulldogs are off a bye while the Tigers pulled the road upset over rival Auburn. Skip Holtz is a solid 6-2 ATS as a 20 point or more underdog at Louisiana Tech. He’s also 10-3 ATS as a road underdog of any number the past 4+ seasons. His team is also 6-4 ATS vs Power Five Conferences since taking over the Bulldogs in 2013. LSU beat both Miami Florida and Auburn, but had a +4 turnover advantage in those two games. This is obviously a sandwich game for LSU with Mississippi on deck after playing Auburn. The Tigers are now 0-4 ATS as a 20+ favorite in the last year plus under Ed Orgeron. Great spot here to fade the public favorite. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
377 UNLV at Arkansas State Is this the year UNLV finally returns a winning record? It’s first since 2013 and only winning mark in the last decade. We believe it’s a strong possibility as the defense looks much improved. Offensively the offense produced 71.8% successful plays against UTEP, the worst program in the FBS. But it’s still impressive against anyone. Under Tony Sanchez the one positive role has been as road dog with a 12-4 spread mark including the cover earlier at USC. Arkansas State returns home after playing at Alabama and Tulsa. Even with a +2 turnover margin in those games the Red Wolves were outscored 77-36. When measuring successful play percentages this team has produced 32.3% while allowing 56.8%. Obviously Arkansas State wasn’t expected to compete with Alabama, but it took a +2 turnover margin to win at Tulsa. Not sure this Sun Belt squad is good enough to beat what we consider to be at least an average Mountain West Conference team by a margin. PLAY UNLV |
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09-22-18 | Charlotte +7.5 v. UMass | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
315 Charlotte at Massachusetts After a 1-11 season a year ago we like what Brad Lambert and his squad have done this season in Charlotte. In its short history in the FBS this program has won just one less game on the road than at Jerry Richardson Stadium. So we get the team in the preferred road underdog role against a team without much of a home field advantage. Massachusetts hasn’t won more than two home games in any season since 2010. Under Mark Whipple the Minutemen have been favorites just 11 times in four plus seasons. UMass returns home off a very rare three game road trip, losing at Boston College, Georgia Southern and FIU. Defensively this is one of if not the worst defense in the nation. The opposition has produced 63.6, 55.4 and 69.1% successful plays against the Minutemen. While Charlotte doesn’t have an explosive offense, they can move the ball at will against this squad. Tough to lay over a touchdown when you can’t stop anyone. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +7.5 | Top | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
344 Notre Dame at Wake Forest What has happened to this Irish offense? Last year it averaged 34.2 points per game. This season it has scored 24, 24 and 22 points. More telling is the lack of success in offensive plays. Just 33.3, 41.7 and 44.6% of plays have been successful. Tough to lay points in the road favorite role with an offense that is struggling. Wake Forest has faced two FBS squads and put up better success percentage numbers than both Tulane and Boston College. Keep in mind the Demon Deacons are at a -3 turnover disadvantage in those games. Under Dave Clawson Wake has been a very good home underdog and this is the third straight home game for the Deacs. No way the Irish remain in the Top 10 after this week. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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09-15-18 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -14 | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
158 Central Michigan at Northern Illinois We expected the Chippewas to be down a year ago and the team posted an 8-5 record. I guess we were a year too soon as this team has looked terrible in the early going. Central lost at Kentucky by 15 in the opener, but it owned a +4 turnover margin. A 2 point cover with a +4 TO margin is not very impressive. Central Then hosted Kansas, a team that had lost over 40 straight times on the road. Not since 2009 had the Jayhawks tasted victory on the road. We Kansas not only won, but blew out the Chippewas 31-7. Northern Illinois faced Iowa and Utah to open the season, two of the best defensive teams in the country. Despite double digit losses to both squads, the Huskies looked better than the final scores. When looking at productive plays Northern Illinois produced just 34.4% but allowed only 35.2%. A much better showing than what the final scores indicated. After facing those two tough defenses, we expect this Huskies offense to have a much easier time. After losing to the Chippewas the past four years, you know this team has had this game circled. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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09-15-18 | Vanderbilt v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
138 Vanderbilt at Notre Dame The Commodore defense regressed last year by allowing 31.3 points per game, up from 24.0 the prior season. With seven returning starters we look for this defense to bounce back this season. Against Middle Tennessee and Nevada Vanderbilt permitted just 7 and 10 points. This team is allowing just 65% in early down success rate. Which is the percentage of first downs on first and second down decided by total first downs. Notre Dame is permitting just 62% in early down success rate, allowing 17 and 16 points to Michigan and Ball State. The Irish offense has gotten off to a slow start and we expect that to continue here. PLAY UNDER |
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09-15-18 | Troy +10.5 v. Nebraska | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
129 Troy at Nebraska Under Neal Brown the Troy Trojans are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog. The last three seasons Troy has gone to Boise State, LSU, Clemson, Mississippi State and Wisconsin. Covering every single game including beating LSU outright and losing at Clemson by just 6 points in the Tigers championship year. This is a team you can trust when stepping up in class. Scott Frost and his squad have played just once after weather cancelled the opener against Akron. In that contest Colorado beat the Cornhuskers outright in Lincoln. In that game the starting quarterback was injured and a walk on had to play. The two original backups left the program after the starting quarterback announcement. Now the Huskers hope the starter last week returns, but if he does he will be extremely hampered. PLAY TROY |
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09-15-18 | Kent State +35.5 v. Penn State | Top | 10-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
119 Kent State at Penn State We’ve been very impressed by the job first year coach Sean Lewis has done in Kent. Outplaying Illinois on the road most of the game and clobbering FCS opponent Howard. The same Howard team that beat UNLV straight up on the road in last years opener. This along with Hawaii are likely to be the two most improved programs in college football. Penn State is a step down from the previous two seasons. This team lost a lot of talent to the NFL. State had to go to overtime to beat a pretty good Appalachian State team, and couldn’t put away the Pitt Panthers until the second half. Conference season starts early as the team travels to Illinois to play the Illini on Friday. We expect the Nittany Lions to go through the motions here on a short week. Keep in mind after the Illini game Penn State hosts power Ohio State. The Lions are 4-6 ATS laying 20 or more under James Franklin. The Golden Flashes have the talent to keep this one relatively close. PLAY KENT STATE |
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09-08-18 | Maryland v. Bowling Green +16 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -106 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
362 Maryland at Bowling Green The Terrapins shocked the Longhorns of Texas again last week for the second time in two years. Maryland won as a 12 point underdog. The team was helped along in that game with a +3 turnover advantage. This is a program that was a road favorite just once last season, a 31-24 loss at Rutgers. Only once in the last three years has Maryland won by more than this spread away from home. Bowling Green held tough at Oregon last week. In fact, the Ducks played starters well into the second half of that game. BG had a solid 71% early down success rate against a team in a power five conference. This club has enough offense to take on Maryland head to head here with a chance to pull off the upset. Off a 2-10 season without a home victory, the Falcons will be primed for this Big 10 visitor. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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09-08-18 | North Carolina -16.5 v. East Carolina | 19-41 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 57 m | Show | |
341 North Carolina at East Carolina Despite the 24-17 loss last week at California, we were impressed by this Tar Heels squad. NC lost the turnover battle by 4 and won the sack count 4-0. This team travelled cross country with many suspensions and played the Bears evenly. Larry Fedora will have his club’s attention this week as the last time these two met in 2014 East Carolina put up 70 points on these Tar Heels. East Carolina was 3-9 each of the last two seasons, and if the opener against North Carolina A&T is any indication, this team won’t taste many wins. Last year the Pirates were outscored by 20.1 points per game. Overall 6 of its 12 games resulted in opponents scoring 50 points or more. The Pirates are 6-13 ATS at home the past three seasons. This team has one of the lowest home field advantages in college football. North Carolina wins this one going away. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-08-18 | Buffalo v. Temple -4 | Top | 36-29 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
346 Buffalo at Temple This is the only game on grass for the Bulls this season. Buffalo has an excellent quarterback and many feel this team is in for a big season. Coming off an impressive showing against Delaware State, the Bulls are a popular choice by the masses this week. But we don’t buy in to the Bulls nearly as much as others. In fact, this number should be much higher in our opinion. Temple struggled last week against Villanova. But many people are unaware that the team was having headset problems in the first half. The quarterback had to make the play calls because the OC wasn’t able to get his plays relayed from the press box in the first half. After that was corrected the team played much better in the second half. PLAT TEMPLE |
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09-08-18 | Western Michigan +28 v. Michigan | Top | 3-49 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
309 Western Michigan at Michigan The last five seasons the Broncos are 8-4 ATS when stepping up against power five teams. That includes a half point spread loss to Purdue in 2014. Out of those 12 games Western has yet to lose by more than the current spread on this contest. The Broncos are also 14-6 ATS as a road dog the past five seasons. Michigan is looking to rebound off a 24-17 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines failed to surpass 36 points in any game last year, and despite the optimism we doubt that number can be reached here. Therefore we have a team that’s not likely to score much more than the current line in this contest. Easy call on the dog here, as it’s much more important for the directional state school. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State OVER 56.5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -106 | 245 h 30 m | Show |
219 Virginia Tech at Florida State Getting this one up early as the line has been moving, and we want to lock this one in before it continues. We expect this Hokies defense to take a step back this year. The defensive backfield has already suffered attrition since spring practice. We also expect this offense to be better this season after taking a 6.8 peg drop a season ago. But the real reason for this play is the massive change of pace expected in Tallahassee this season. Jimbo Fisher preferred a slow pace to his offense which really made no sense considering he out talented just about every opponent on the schedule. When you have the better athletes you want to have more plays to exploit that fact. By slowing the pace all you are doing is giving the opposition a chance to stay in the game. Enter Willie Taggart who wants to hike the ball as fast as he can. It keeps the defense from substituting and gives his superior team a better chance to shine. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 peg last year. After averaging 37 mpg the prior six seasons. Let’s get this one in now before this thing rises any further. PLAY OVER |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | Top | 41-59 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
215 Navy at Hawaii The midshipmen are coming off a down 7-6 season, their worst record since 2011. While only nine starters return, that’s a regular occurrence with the military teams. After losing 6 of 7 to end the season, Ken Niumatalolo and company should rebound nicely. Hawaii off a 3-9 season shocked Colorado State in the opener. But we believe most of that had to do with the Rams head coach not being healthy enough to coach the practices. Keep in mind that Hawaii last year was outscored by 11.1 ppg, and had lost 9 of 10 to end the season. The Warriors permitted 5.3 ypr each of the last two seasons. We see the Navy running game wearing out this very questionable Hawaii defense. Hawaii is 4-15-1 ATS at home the past three seasons. This home field advantage is very low. PLAY NAVY |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse v. Western Michigan +6 | Top | 55-42 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 4 m | Show |
144 Syracuse at Western Michigan The Orange had 15 and 18 returning starters the last two seasons and managed to win just four games each year. The team brings back 14 starters this season. While the team will have veterans, keep in mind the Orangemen haven’t posted a winning record since 2013. In the past three seasons Syracuse has a combined two wins away from home. Western Michigan went 13-1 two years ago and fell to 6-6 last year under Tim Lester. The Broncos know this Syracuse squad very well as not only the head coach, but the offensive and defensive coordinators recently coached at Syracuse. Just two years ago Lester was the quarterback coach for Orangemen signal caller Eric Dungey. Here we get a home team that is 17-6 in Waldo Stadium the past four seasons, that knows the opposition better than anyone. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 41 m | Show | |
139 Wake Forest at Tulane The Demon Deacons long known as a defensive football team, really broke out offensively last year. Going from 20.4 ppg to 35.3 last season. The Deacons need to replace its starting QB and its second returning receiver who is out with injury. Other than that this team returns mostly intact offensively. Tulane is coming off a 5-7 season under Willie Fritz. 12 starters return including starting QB Jonathan Banks. The team averaged 27.5 ppg a year ago but the offensive line which returned five starters last year must be rebuilt. We also have concerns about a secondary that lost an NFL draft choice. Our numbers say the Demon Deacons win this game by double digits, as the Wake stop unit is the best unit on the field. PLAY WAKE FOREST |