Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-14 | Kent State v. Miami (OH) -6 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 120 h 27 m | Show | |
156 Kent State at Miami OhioThe Golden Flashes took advantage of an Army team that does not travel well in gaining the victory last week at home. Kent has had a very trying year after losing key players in the off season and the tragic death of the starting center. The win was great for the players but it isn’t any type of buy sign on this club.Miami is playing better and better each week and we see clear improvement from this football team. This is a chance for the Redhawks to beat up on a team they have advantages against. The number is cheap.PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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10-25-14 | Memphis v. SMU UNDER 49.5 | 48-10 | Loss | -102 | 48 h 42 m | Show | |
162 Memphis at SMUThe Tigers just finished its toughest part of the schedule and now finishes the year with a bunch of weak opponents. After facing SMU the Tigers tangle with the likes of Tulsa, Temple, Tulane, South Florida and Connecticut. At 3-3 on the season Memphis is virtually assured of making a bowl game. Which makes us leery of the Tigers running up the score here. This club knows running between the tackles will but points on the board and in doing so the clock keeps running. Why put Paxton Lynch in jeopardy? SMU on the other hand has scored six points or less in all but one game this season. With a bye on deck the very thin Mustangs will likely want this one to end as soon as possible to get to the week off and recuperate. SMU has been pounded by pass first mentality teams all year and the Tigers rush the ball on average 48 times per game. Look for the Tigers to have a real shot at a shootout here which gives us a comfortable play on the under.PLAY UNDER |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49 | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
108 Miami Florida at Virginia Tech Huge game in ACC Coastal action as both squads sit at 1-2 at the moment. That likely means a more conservative game plan from both squads. Virginia Tech hasn’t lived up to offensive promise this year after Michael Brewer looked like an upgrade at the quarterback position. Defensively the Hokies are stout holding talented offenses like East Carolina and North Carolina to 28 and 17 points. Only East Carolina and Georgia Tech have managed more than 21 against Virginia Tech and we doubt a freshman signal caller will have great success in this one. Miami has padded their offensive stats against bad defensive teams such as Florida A&M, Arkansas State and Cincinnati. The best defense they faced this season was Louisville and the Hurricanes only managed 13 points in that contest. We expect a low scoring affair with the loser likely out of the divisional race.PLAY UNDER |
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10-18-14 | Clemson -4.5 v. Boston College | 17-13 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
375 Clemson at Boston College |
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10-18-14 | New Mexico v. Air Force -10 | 31-35 | Loss | -100 | 45 h 42 m | Show | |
344 New Mexico at Air Force |
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10-18-14 | Eastern Michigan +14.5 v. UMass | 14-36 | Loss | -105 | 44 h 15 m | Show | |
333 Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts |
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10-18-14 | Akron -3 v. Ohio | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -102 | 44 h 13 m | Show |
319 Akron at Ohio U Don’t look now but the Zips are 8-3 its last 11 games as coach Bowden is pointing this team in a positive direction. Akron is looking to avenge an embarrassing 43-3 loss to these Bobcats a season ago. The Zips currently own the top defense in the Mid-American Conference. QB Pohl has been listed as out for this contest but the drop off at QB isn’t nearly as drastic as the line would have you believe. We had Akron favored by 9 with Pohl and he is not a 6 point player. Very few quarterbacks are at this level, especially in a conference like the MAC which is down this year. This overreaction in the marketplace gives us a nice price on the far better team.Ohio U is also playing with a backup signal caller as the Bobcats are very thin at many positions. Akron owns the better defense, better overall talent and 40 point home loss revenge. We expect a double digit victory.PLAY AKRON |
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10-11-14 | Air Force +7 v. Utah State | 16-34 | Loss | -106 | 85 h 28 m | Show | |
189 Air Force at Utah State Huge wins for both programs last week as Air Force has gotten a leg up for the Commander in Chief Trophy with a solid win over Navy. Utah State on the other hand won for the first time in 18 visits to Provo, as the Aggies hadn’t won there since 1978. While both teams are primed for a letdown we put our faith in the military men to overcome the distraction over the mormon men. It’s a special trip for the Air Force players as the team is not chartering a flight as normal, but will be strapping in to an actual Air Force plane many of these players will actually be flying in the coming years. Utah State in knocking off BYU won against the highest ranked team in Aggies history. They also did so in front of a national television audience. While a major reason for the victory was the devastating injury to the BYU signal caller, the Aggies had a solid lead before Hill left the game. Last year Utah State scored 31 unanswered points to win going away in this contest. We are sure the Flyboys fully remember that collapse. In this battle of possible letdown squads we will take the generous points with the Falcons.PLAY AIR FORCE |
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10-11-14 | Toledo v. Iowa State -2.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 91 h 46 m | Show | |
164 Toledo at Iowa State Money has consistently come in on the Rockets and Toledo continues to disappoint backers. The linemakers correctly set the opening number this week and once again a group pounded the Rockets. This group either has unlimited resources or has no clue about what they are doing. Likely a combination of both. Toledo had to go to overtime last week against Western Michigan and we always like to fade teams off an overtime victory. Toledo is currently undefeated in the MAC and this game has no bearing on a conference championship.Iowa State on the other hand needs every win possible in an attempt to become bowl eligible. The Cyclones have played the second toughest schedule in the nation with the five opponents posting a 22-3 record with two of the losses to Florida State and Auburn. With a 1-4 record and games against Oklahoma and TCU on the remaining schedule Iowa State needs this win like blood. Paul Rhodes is at his best in the home favorite role and the Cyclones can take advantage of a smaller Rockets squad.PLAY IOWA STATE |
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10-11-14 | Louisville v. Clemson -11.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
174 Louisville at Clemson Even though we fully expect QB Will Gardner and WR DeVante Parker to return for this game, we feel the line is a bit short with the Tigers. Both players are returning from injury so we can’t expect either to be 100% if they do play. And there is always a chance that either or both could miss the game because of lingering problems. Coach Petrino talked about the scoring unit in his weekly presser and he referred to having a limited offense. Both inexperience at the quarterback position and lack of protection in the offensive line. Neither is a positive when taking on one of the best defensive fronts in college football. Clemson off a shutout of NC State will be primed for another shutdown performance.Under QB DeShaun Watson the Tigers have been dynamic offensively. He has a cannon for an arm and the pro scouts must be salivating with his ability. He put up 266 passing yards off the bench against Florida State and led his team to a combined 91 points in two starts against North Carolina and NC State. To put up 50 points the week after losing the heartbreaker to the Seminoles tells us all about the talent of this Clemson offense. We expect this line to climb so get in now with the Tigers.PLAY CLEMSON |
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10-04-14 | Nebraska v. Michigan State -7 | 22-27 | Loss | -111 | 82 h 30 m | Show | |
410 Nebraska at Michigan State Early money came in on the underdog here but we can’t see a reason why. The Huskers have only one victory against a decent Miami team while padding the schedule with the likes of Florida Atlantic, McNeese State, Fresno State and Illinois. Nebraska had a huge edge in talent in every game except Miami which recruits on par with the Cornhuskers. RB Ameer Abdullah is a stud, no doubt about it but this will be by far the toughest defense he has faced. And speaking of defense the Nebraska numbers look far better than they actually are. They faced a freshman QB in a tough road environment against Miami, and Illinois was without its starter last week. The QB’s for the first three opponents are not exactly highly thought of. Michigan State has played a similar schedule but did travel to Eugene to face the speed of the Oregon Ducks. Those who remember that game are well aware of the Spartans leading that game well into the second half before succumbing to Oregon 46-27. But keep in mind one of the nations top four teams only out gained the Spartans by 25 total yards. It was a -2 in the turnover margin that helps the Ducks pull away late. That game against Oregon on the road was more telling about this Michigan State team than anything Nebraska has accomplished. While Nebraska has won 2 of the last 3 meetings we believe the Spartans have another huge edge in coaching in this contest. Michigan State was burned by 5.7 yards per rush in last years game which was 2.6 ypr higher than in any other regular season game. We expect Mark Dantonio and his staff to address that critical flaw from a season ago. This number is cheap and likely to rise. Get this one in now as we buck the initial line move.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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10-04-14 | UMass v. Miami (OH) -3.5 | 41-42 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 9 m | Show | |
348 Massachusetts at Miami Ohio Tough scheduling spot here for the Minutemen who started the season playing four teams from the power five conferences, and then hosting Bowling Green in the first true home game in Amherst since 2011. Despite having 3 of those 5 games at home and facing likely conference bottom tier squads, the Minutemen have still been out gained by 120 yards per game. While the offense has improved the defense has yielded 30, 41, 34, 48 and 47 points this season.Miami has dropped 21 straight games heading into this contest. But it’s clear the Redhawks are an improved club. It has played 3 of 5 games on the road and have only been out gained by 69 yards per contest. In a game priced in this range special teams could be a key and Miami has a large edge in that regard as UMass has one of the worst ST units in college football. Redhawks get the monkey off its back with a 10 point victory.PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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10-02-14 | Florida Atlantic -6.5 v. Florida International | 10-38 | Loss | -109 | 55 h 37 m | Show | |
303 Florida Atlantic at Florida International Florida Atlantic stands at just 2-3 on the season but this is a club that faced the likes of Nebraska and Alabama. QB Jaquez Johnson is a talented signal caller who could very well be the best player on the field. That’s a big advantage against the freshman quarterback of FIU. In last years contest the Owl defense held the Panthers to just 1.3 yards per carry. If that plays out again the Panthers will be forced to throw the ball which is a sizable advantage for the visitor. FIU hasn’t run the ball effectively all year. The host is coming off an improbable win over UAB as the Panthers had a 6-0 turnover advantage. In the first five games of the season FIU has a +10 turnover advantage. The biggest seasonal advantage in turnovers for this team in the last seven seasons was +5 in 2011. After going 1-11 last year the Panthers look improved but critics are still concerned about the sideline work of Ron Turner who has never tasted success. This offense is extremely weak and can’t count on the big plays or the special teams success it used last Saturday against UAB.PLAY FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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09-27-14 | Oregon State v. USC -9 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 33 h 33 m | Show | |
170 Oregon State at USC Trojans laying what we consider to be a cheap number after having last week off after the embarrassing loss at Boston College. As bad as Arizona State looked Thursday night the Sun Devil revenge angle shouldn’t be a factor for the game next week.Oregon State takes a major step up this week after tangling with Portland State, Hawaii and San Diego state. The Beavers have lost 22 straight visits to Southern Cal and it takes on a USC squad primed for a rebound. Easier time on deck as Oregon State travels to Colorado in seven days.PLAY USC |
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09-27-14 | Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -109 | 102 h 56 m | Show |
179 Duke at Miami Florida First real test of the season for the Blue Devils who step up in class after facing Elon, Troy, Kansas and Tulane. But this is a team that has now won 12 of 13 games heading into this contest with just two losses by more than 3 points in the last 1 1/3 seasons. Duke has a running attack that can find success against the Hurricanes who have shown an inability to stop the run. Last year Duke amassed 358 rushing yards and 6.9 yards per carry against this stop unit. The Blue Devils beat Miami 48-30 as a home underdog and not much has changed with these two programs.Miami had success against weaklings like Florida A&M and Arkansas State, but this team struggled when stepping up in class against the likes of Louisville and Nebraska. Miami has a great deal of talent on defense but this club just doesn’t play well as a team defensively. So while Miami has revenge on its mind it’s the Blue Devils who have the equal to superior team.PLAY DUKE |
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09-27-14 | Central Michigan +15 v. Toledo | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 58 h 21 m | Show | |
137 Central Michigan at Toledo |
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09-27-14 | Northwestern v. Penn State -10 | 29-6 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 34 m | Show | |
136 Northwestern at Penn State |
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09-20-14 | Oklahoma -7 v. West Virginia | Top | 45-33 | Win | 100 | 75 h 10 m | Show |
389 Oklahoma at West Virginia We talked last week about Bob Stoops and his hatred of the SEC. That was part of the reason for our opinion on the Sooners. This week he talked about making a statement against West Virginia because they hung in tough against SEC entrant Alabama. Oklahoma is a legit national title contender who will look to make a statement here against an improved Mountaineer club. Keep in mind last year West Virginia held the Sooners to just 16 points in a 16-7 Oklahoma victory. That 16 points was the smallest Oklahoma home point total since scoring 19 against Kansas State and 13 against Notre Dame in the 2012 season. Both those clubs were ranked in the Top 15 when the Sooners faced them. What did Oklahoma do against those clubs last year? 2-0 straight up and ATS covering the number by 25 1/2 combined points. West Virginia is an improved club under Dana Holgerson but keep in mind since his arrival the team won 10, 7 and 4 games heading into 2014. Overall you can grade his work in Morgantown as unsatisfactory. West Virginia is just 2-3 ATS as a home dog in his tenure and after opening in the 12 point range this line has been pounded down to 7. That’s just too much of an adjustment as we step in with a cheap number on the Sooners.PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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09-20-14 | Northern Illinois v. Arkansas OVER 65 | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 48 h 52 m | Show | |
381 Northern Illinois at Arkansas The Huskies have won 17 straight on the road including a ten point victory last week in Las Vegas. Now this club faces a major defensive challenge against a huge Arkansas offensive line. MAC teams as a whole are smaller in the trenches and the Razorbacks are bigger than the majority of NFL offensive lines. That means plenty of running plays for the hogs against what will be a tired Northern Illinois defense in the second half. That could be especially true after playing in the desert heat last Saturday.While the defense is sure to struggle the Huskies can put points on the board. This is a talented offense that likes to get up and down the field as fast as possible. With a winning pedigree you know there will be a never say die attitude with the Huskies.PLAY OVER |
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09-20-14 | Bowling Green +27 v. Wisconsin | 17-68 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
325 Bowling Green at Wisconsin This line has moved the wrong way in our opinion as the Badgers have taken way too much money along the way. It’s now time to jump in with the underdog at a nice bargain price. BG has a new coaching staff that installed new schemes on both sides of the ball. The team struggled early on in picking up the changes and it showed on the scoreboard right out of the gate. But now with more experience we feel it’s a great time to back the Falcons against what could very well be another overrated Big Ten squad.Wisconsin has the ability to run the ball at will here on Saturday and we expect the Badgers to put up a good number of points. It’s the Wisconsin defense that can be exploited by a Bowling Green offense which will have them on their heels all afternoon. BG tries to go as fast as possible and that’s not the preferred pace for the Badgers. That leaves Wisconsin vulnerable as the game progresses and keeps our dog in play throughout.PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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09-18-14 | Auburn -8.5 v. Kansas State | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
303 Auburn at Kansas State The Tigers lost just a single road game last year in a 14 point spread covering loss at LSU. This is a team that has impressed over the last nine games with outright wins over Texas A&M, Georgia, Alabama and Missouri. Gus Malzahn is an offensive genius and the fast pace of this Auburn offense will have Kansas State on its heals all game.Playing in Manhattan in a Thursday night atmosphere is never an easy thing to do. But as much as we love and respect coach Snyder this team just doesn’t have the horses to compete for the entire game. After an 11 win season in 2012 the Wildcats dropped to 8-5 a year ago. With just 11 returning starters this team doesn’t look equipped to trade points with the Tigers. Speed kills and the visitor owns the edge in bunches.PLAY AUBURN |
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09-13-14 | USC -16.5 v. Boston College | 31-37 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
193 USC at Boston College Now that 16 1/2s are showing its time to step in with the far superior team against a very limited Boston College offense. Many will talk about the cross country travel and the fact that the Trojans are off a lucky win over Stanford. While that is true the line adjustment has been exaggerated. USC has the better players in virtually every position on the field in this matchup. The Eagles are a power running team with a signal caller who doesn’t possess a major college arm. That makes this team one dimensional against what many consider the strongest defense in the country. That makes a lot of long third down conversations which lead to turnovers. We will go out on a limb here and say the USC defense will equal the BC offense in scoring.PLAY USC |
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09-13-14 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -16.5 | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -106 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
124 Eastern Michigan at Old Dominion |
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09-13-14 | Arkansas +1 v. Texas Tech | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
153 Arkansas at Texas Tech The Razorbacks have a huge offensive line that has had its way the first two weeks of the season. This team can run the ball on anyone and it goes up against a very poor defensive team on Saturday. Texas Tech cannot stop the run and the offense looks to be down from previous editions. In watching the Red Raiders play the first two weeks it’s easy to see the offense is having a tough time getting on the same page. Penalties and poor decisions abound and Texas Tech will likely be playing from behind a good portion of this contest. We expect late money to come in on the Hogs here as it wouldn’t surprise if Arkansas goes off as a three point favorite.PLAY ARKANSAS |
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09-13-14 | GEORGIA SOUTHERN +20 v. Georgia Tech | 38-42 | Win | 100 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
133 Georgia Southern at Georgia Tech The Eagles of Georgia Southern have been impressive thus far. Giving NC State a major scare in the opener and blowing the doors off a bad Savannah State team a week ago. Now the upstart football program gets to play one of the two big boys in the state of Georgia as it takes on the Yellow Jackets.Georgia Tech played a similar styled Wofford team in the opener and the game looked like a team scrimmage. Both teams knew exactly what the other was going to run and the game never had a flow which kept the underdog in the contest throughout. We see much of the same here as the Eagles are very familiar with the Paul Johnson system as he was the head coach there for six years and installed the same system while posting a 62-10 record at Georgia Southern. It also doesn’t hurt that the Yellow Jackets have four times revenge on deck when it travels to Blacksburg next week to take on Virginia Tech.PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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09-06-14 | Memphis v. UCLA -23 | Top | 35-42 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
382 Memphis at UCLA |
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09-06-14 | San Diego State v. North Carolina -15.5 | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 22 m | Show | |
376 San Diego State at North Carolina |
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09-06-14 | Louisiana Tech +14 v. UL-Lafayette | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
357 Louisiana Tech at UL Lafayette |
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09-06-14 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt +20 | 41-3 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
347 Mississippi at Vanderbilt Classic first game overreaction here in regards to the Commodores. That coupled with preseason hype for the Rebels gives us a nice overlay price here with the dog. Keep in mind Mississippi used a 75 yard run in the final 1:07 last year to pull out the game in Vandy as a 3 point road favorite. So now we find Mississippi in the same situation but favored by roughly 17 more points. The Commodores are off an embarrassing performance including turning the ball over seven times. You know this team will enter this contest fully focused while we may not be able to say the same for the favorite, off a nationally televised win over Boise State which was much closer than the final score indicated. The highly touted QB for the Rebels was inconsistent as always but got hot in the fourth quarter. It’s clear that Ole Miss has the talent but until it can show a killer mentality the Rebels shouldn’t be trusted in this point spread range. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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09-06-14 | Western Kentucky v. Illinois -5 | 34-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
328 Western Kentucky at Illinois |
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09-05-14 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College +4.5 | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 10 m | Show | |
304 Pittsburgh at Boston College |
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08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia UNDER 57.5 | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 382 h 35 m | Show | |
182 Clemson at Georgia Not only do the Tigers have to replace thousand yard rusher McDowell, star QB Boyd and extremely talented receivers Watkins and Bryant, they also must replace All-Time scorer Calanzaro at kicker. The defense has 7 returning starters from a team that was excellent at penetration of the line. Georgia also enters the season without amazing signal caller Murray while 7 defensive starters return. After the stop unit regressed by close to 10 points per game a year ago we expect Georgia to be dominant at times on that side of the ball. Last year these two combined for 73 points and the casual fan will look to play this game over. But history shows starting the year with two new signal callers points to low scoring games. Throw in the fact that the defenses are extremely talented and we look for a very conservative game plan from the coaches.PLAY UNDER |
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08-30-14 | UCLA v. Virginia +21.5 | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 260 h 21 m | Show | |
160 UCLA at Virginia |
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08-28-14 | Temple +16 v. Vanderbilt | 37-7 | Win | 100 | 417 h 23 m | Show | |
141 Temple at Vanderbilt Vandy is going through changes this year as James Franklin took his services to Penn State. He had great success here winning nine games each of the last two seasons, but the Commodores are about to see regression. Vandy lost a ton of talent in the offseason including the leading tackler, starting QB and top two outstanding receivers. Add in the loss of an outstanding kicker and a new defensive scheme and we expect Vanderbilt to be slow out of the gate. Things are looking up for a Temple program that got better as the season went on last year. Coming off a year in which the Owls made only three field goals and intercepted just three passes we can look for a huge jump. They do have depth issues along the front line but the new defensive scheme for Vandy shouldn't exploit those concerns. This is a team that is fatally deep at QB with transfer Walker and veteran Reilly at the helm. This team is bigger and faster than a year ago and will surprise this season. PLAY TEMPLE |
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08-28-14 | Rutgers v. Washington State OVER 61 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 131 h 8 m | Show |
143 Rutgers at Washington State The Scarlet Knights put up 26.5 ppg a season ago and bring back 9 starters including improving quarterback Gary Nova. Rutgers has a quality offensive line which will give him time to find open receivers against a questionable Cougar stop unit.Washington State put up 31 ppg a year ago while allowing 32.5. The Cougars return 8 starters to an offense that brings back the outstanding Connor Halliday behind center. Washington State is deep and talented at the receiver spots and they have impact freshmen on the offensive side of the ball. With Rutgers have major problems in the defensive secondary the Cougars should be in for a big day offensively.PLAY OVER |
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08-28-14 | Wake Forest v. UL-Monroe +3.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 437 h 43 m | Show | |
136 Wake Forest at UL Monroe |
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01-03-14 | Clemson v. Ohio State -3 | 40-35 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
264 Clemson & Ohio State in Miami
Haven |
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01-01-14 | UNLV v. North Texas -6.5 | Top | 14-36 | Win | 100 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
250 UNLV & North Texas in Dallas
The Rebels haven |
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12-31-13 | Virginia Tech v. UCLA -7 | 12-42 | Win | 100 | 5 h 42 m | Show | |
242 Virginia Tech & UCLA in El Paso
It |
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12-31-13 | Boston College +7.5 v. Arizona | 19-42 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
239 Boston College & Arizona in Shreveport
Boston College had a four game winning streak snapped in the final minute last time out against Syracuse. That not only hurt Eagles fans but our pockets as well. But we come right back with BC here as we just don |
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12-30-13 | Ole Miss -3 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
233 Mississippi & Georgia Tech in Nashville
Mississippi was one of those teams that stayed under the national radar because of playing in the always tough SEC. With a 7-5 record and losses to Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Missouri and Mississippi State. Other than the Bulldogs each of the other defeats came against highly ranked opposition. This is a defense that has held six straight opponents to 24 points or less. Ole Miss has been bowling five times since 2002 winning every game by margins of 21, 14, 13, 3 and 4 points. The Rebels were never favored by more than 3 1/2 points in any of those games. Head Coach Hugh Freeze has experience in the postseason after guiding Arkansas State to a bowl win and cover last year. Georgia Tech has been bowling each of the last five years under Paul Johnson. He |
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12-30-13 | Middle Tenn State +7 v. Navy | 6-24 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
231 Middle Tennessee State & Navy in Fort Worth
Now that the line has reached a full seven points it |
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12-27-13 | Marshall v. Maryland +3 | 31-20 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 18 m | Show | |
218 Marshall & Maryland in Annapolis
Maryland was a team that was devastated by injuries throughout this season. When healthy this club was a real money maker. The extra time off from the regular season gives the Terrapins time to build up reinforcements. The location of this game in Annapolis also favors the Turtles. Teams playing in their own state are able to have an edge in attendance and the excitement of playing in this building is clear from the quotes of the Maryland players. The Terrapins played the tougher schedule and because of injuries this team has stayed under the radar in the betting markets. In our opinion the wrong team is favored here. While Marshall is happy to be here after 6 combined wins the last two years we can |
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12-26-13 | Pittsburgh v. Bowling Green -4.5 | 30-27 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
214 Pittsburgh & Bowling Green in Detroit
The Falcons return to the scene of the crime where last time out they knocked off previously unbeaten Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship. Because of the poor play of the Mid-American Conference thus far we saw money come in against both MAC participants on the Thursday slate. But that isn |
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12-21-13 | Colorado State v. Washington State OVER 65.5 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
201 New Mexico Bowl Colorado St. v. Washington St.
The Rams have a 1.2 yards per play advantage but they have played a much easier slate of opponents. Colorado State permits 63.3% completions and they are facing off against a Cougars team that passes 77% of the time. The Rams victories this year have come against Cal Poly, UTEP, Wyoming, Hawaii, Nevada, New Mexico and Air Force. None of those teams are going bowling this year. Washington State beat both USC and Arizona on the road, who are both playing in the post season. They also lost at Auburn by just 7 points. In fact, Washington State has played much better ball outside of Pullman. The Cougars haven |
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12-07-13 | Missouri +2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 42-59 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 46 m | Show |
121 Missouri and Auburn at the Georgia Dome
The Tigers just aren |
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12-06-13 | Bowling Green +5 v. Northern Illinois | 47-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show | |
105 Bowling Green and Northern Illinois in Detroit
Northern Illinois is by far the most well known team in this conference based on the FBS runs the last two years, along with Heisman hopeful QB Jordan Lynch. Because of that you are always paying a premium when backing the Huskies, especially in a stand alone televised contest in which the public is involved. Northern Illinois has been an excellent team the last five years under Rod Carey and before him Dave Doeren and Jerry KIll. But in our mind this Huskies team isn |
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12-05-13 | Louisville v. Cincinnati +3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 22 m | Show |
104 Louisville at Cincinnati
The Cardinals have been an overrated club all season and because they continue to post victories the lines haven |
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11-30-13 | Boston College -2 v. Syracuse | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 8 m | Show | |
347 Boston College at Syracuse
The Eagles are now 6-4 on the season after a late comeback victory last week at Maryland. This is a team that can better their bowl placement by finishing the season strong on Saturday. It |
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11-30-13 | South Alabama v. Georgia State +8 | 38-17 | Loss | -103 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
372 South Alabama at Georgia State
The Jaguars do not deserve to be favored by more than a touchdown here. They have just one road win the last two seasons and that was by a 2 point margin. Georgia State has played the much tougher schedule and have cashed all but one game this season, five of those covers by a touchdown or more. The last two meetings in the series has seen the Panthers outscoring the Jaguars by 2 combined points. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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11-30-13 | Kansas State -17 v. Kansas | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 1 h 40 m | Show | |
397 Kansas State at Kansas
Total domination in this series for the Wildcats as Bill Snyder takes special pride in beating up his in-state rival. We |
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11-29-13 | Florida International v. Florida Atlantic -28 | 6-21 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 40 m | Show | |
332 Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Ron Turner is working his magic in Miami turning a once solid program into the laughingstock of the state, that is if you don |
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11-23-13 | Boston College v. Maryland | 29-26 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
141 Boston College at Maryland
Have a feeling the Eagles are going to take money come game day so let |
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11-23-13 | Georgia State +24 v. Arkansas State | 33-35 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show | |
187 Georgia State at Arkansas State
When laying a huge number like we see here the favorite must be able to dominate the opposition on both sides of the ball. While we feel the Red Wolves will put up substantial offensive numbers we |
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11-23-13 | East Carolina -6.5 v. North Carolina State | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 9 m | Show | |
129 East Carolina at NC State
While many will look at the easy schedule the Pirates have played, the truth of the matter is that facing weak opposition keeps you fresh this time of the year. East Carolina has played Southern Miss, Florida International, Tulsa and UAB along with a bye the past five weeks. When the Pirates had to step up in class this year they covered by a combined 39 1/2 points against North Carolina and Virginia Tech. The Pirate players and the university in general feel that they are overshadowed in the state by Duke, NC State and North Carolina. This is why the team puts an extra emphasis when playing in-state rivals. East Carolina pummeled the Tar Heels earlier this year 55-31 and now they have the ability to take the state crown by knocking off the Wolfpack. Duke beat NC State and ends the regular season against North Carolina but the Blue Devils don |
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11-23-13 | Cincinnati v. Houston -3 | 24-17 | Loss | -120 | 73 h 59 m | Show | |
148 Cincinnati at Houston
Has anyone in the country played an easier schedule that the Bearcats? Not a single team Cincinnati has played currently has a winning record. Only one team, Rutgers is playing .500 ball on the year, and the Scarlett Knights are extremely banged up. The fact of the matter is that Cincinnati |
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11-20-13 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo OVER 72 | 35-17 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
105 Northern Illinois at Toledo
The MAC West all comes down to this. If Northern Illinois wins they play in the MAC Championship, if Toledo wins here and next week against Akron they are in. Both teams own outstanding rushing games which average 6.3 yards per carry. David Fluellen for Toledo, a solid runner will be a game time decision. He has been in and out of the lineup lately, but the Rockets are strong in the run game with or without him. The weather calls for a possibility of rain, but that shouldn |
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11-16-13 | Oregon State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 17-30 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
363 Oregon State at Arizona State
When handicapping games you must be able to look past what is obvious and find value in what many would overlook. Take for instance this Oregon State offense. The Beavers opened the season by scoring 46, 33, 51, 34, 44, 52 and 49 points. The last two games they were held to just 12 and 14 points. So obviously this offense is regressing. That couldn |
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11-16-13 | Texas Tech v. Baylor -27 | Top | 34-63 | Win | 100 | 126 h 54 m | Show |
360 Texas Tech at Baylor
Last week we had great success backing the Bears and fading the Red Raiders. Why should this week be any different. We have a play on team against a major play against squad. Texas Tech simply does not have the depth to compete against the tough Big 12 late in the year. The last 2+ years Texas Tech is 1-12 SU the final five games of the season with the lone victory coming in double overtime hosting Kansas. The Red Raiders were a 24 1/2 point favorite in that contest. Texas Tech has lost three straight when stepping up in class after starting the season undefeated. Baylor has a 3.7 yards per play advantage to go along with a .50 points per play edge. In a game where 80 plays are expected the Bears would have a 40 point advantage not including special teams play. Many will expect Baylor to have a letdown here after beating up Oklahoma in what was considered a statement game for the host. But each of the last two years the Bears beat Kansas State and Oklahoma outright as double digit dogs and still easily covered the following week. Besides, that Oklahoma game was on Thursday so the Bears have two extra days to prepare. This game is being played in Arlington a neutral site for both these clubs. But Baylor had little problem the last two years taking care of the Red Raiders on a neutral field. We said two weeks ago that we thought Texas Tech was a fraud and it |
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11-16-13 | Memphis v. South Florida +1.5 | 23-10 | Loss | -106 | 82 h 15 m | Show | |
388 Memphis at South Florida
No doubt Memphis is an improved team this year but they are still just 1-6 against FBS competition with the lone win coming against Arkansas State. This is a team that has played an extremely easy schedule with just Central Florida and Houston being quality opponents. South Florida has a 2-5 mark against FBS opponents but they have played the tougher schedule. The Bulls faced Michigan State, Miami Florida, Louisville and Houston. USF also is coming in off a bye week. These two clubs have played two common opponents, Cincinnati and Houston. Memphis lost both those games by 23 combined points while South Florida split being outscored by just 6 points. When looking at season to date numbers we can see where the Tigers could be installed as a slight road favorite. But while the Tigers have regressed slightly the Bulls have played much better ball over the second half of the season. USF has split their last four games against Cincinnati, Connecticut, Louisville and Houston. That |
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11-16-13 | Houston +17.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
323 Houston at Louisville
Louisville has the better record but we |
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11-16-13 | Miami (Florida) v. Duke +3.5 | 30-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show | |
318 Miami Fl at Duke
Miami has dropped the past four games by a combined 57 1/2 points against the spread. What was once a very promising season for Al Golden and his club has turned into a nosedive. This is a team that is 7-2 on the season but has beaten the likes of Florida Atlantic, South Florida, Savannah State and Wake Forest. Victories against Florida, Georgia Tech and North Carolina are not nearly as impressive in retrospect. Running back Duke Johnson remains out and this offense just isn |
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11-16-13 | TCU v. Kansas State -10.5 | Top | 31-33 | Loss | -106 | 75 h 24 m | Show |
392 TCU at Kansas State
The TCU Horned Frogs sit at 4-6 on the season. The truth is that this Horned Frogs team is well below previous editions. The four wins for TCU this year were against SE Louisiana, SMU, Kansas and Iowa State. TCU has now lost 10 of their last 16 games. Last year at home the Horned Frogs lost to Kansas State 23-10. TCU doesn |
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11-16-13 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt -12.5 | 6-22 | Win | 100 | 119 h 1 m | Show | |
322 Kentucky at Vanderbilt
The Wildcats own just one victory on the season against Miami Ohio who is among, if not the worst football team in the FBS. Kentucky hasn |
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11-12-13 | Ohio +10 v. Bowling Green | 0-49 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
301 Ohio U at Bowling Green
These two were expected to compete for the MAC East title before the season started and the Ohio loss to Buffalo last week virtually takes them out of contention. The Bobcats can still forge a three way tie by winning here and having Buffalo lose to these Falcons in their upcoming meeting. That said, Ohio U has set their goal of becoming bowl eligible. One of our favorite handicapping tools is to go against what the public saw last week. What they witnessed last Tuesday was Ohio U getting pummeled at Buffalo 30-3, while seeing Bowling Green pound Miami Ohio 45-3. That gives us an inflated double digit pointspread with a tightly contested series history. Ohio has won 3 of the last 4 meetings, and the Bobcats haven |
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11-09-13 | Virginia Tech +7 v. Miami (Florida) | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 122 h 6 m | Show | |
137 Virginia Tech at Miami Florida
The Hokies entered the bye week 6-1 on the season and primed for a strong second half run. With Duke and Boston College on the horizon we are sure the team was focused on the November 9th meeting at Miami, with only Maryland and in-state rival Virginia on deck. But something happened on the way to a strong bounce back season, as the Hokies lost outright to both the Blue Devils and Eagles. Turnovers were the key in those 3 and 7 point losses as Virginia Tech had a negative 4 turnover margin in those games despite out gaining both opponents. In fact, Virginia Tech has out gained all but one opponent this season, the lone deficit coming by 35 yards to North Carolina. In last years meeting between these two the Hokies held a 421 to 347 yardage edge but a negative 3 turnover margin did them in. Miami is coming in off a bubble burst loss to Florida State. It not only ruined their perfect season but extended their four year futility at the hands of the Seminoles. With a schedule loaded with the likes of Florida Atlantic, Savannah State, South Florida and Wake Forest, you now have to question just how good this Hurricanes team is. Against the best two teams they faced they were out gained by 201 and 242 yards respectively vs Florida and Florida State. Miami hasn |
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11-09-13 | BYU v. Wisconsin -7 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 126 h 19 m | Show | |
158 BYU at Wisconsin
The Cougars have had an impressive season out gaining every single team they have played. The breakout game was in week two when they ran up an amazing 550 rushing yards against Texas. But the running attack has staggered a bit away from Provo with rushing totals of just 187 at Virginia, 160 at Utah State and 264 at Houston. BYU is averaging a solid 0.8 yards per play more than they allow, but Wisconsin is putting up 2.7 more yards per play that they permit. Both teams strengths are in the trenches but Wisconsin does it better. The Badgers are producing 6.3 yards per carry while allowing just 3.1 ypc. So we don |
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11-09-13 | Auburn -7 v. Tennessee | 55-23 | Win | 100 | 123 h 48 m | Show | |
193 Auburn at Tennessee
The Tigers are having a big year but they continue to be underrated in the betting marketplace. The lone defeat on the season was a loss at LSU in a game they were out gained by just 20 yards. Auburn is winning the battle in the trenches this season averaging 0.9 yards per play more than they allow. Tennessee on the other hand allows the same 0.9 yards per play more than they produce. Auburn has a substantial edge in the passing game as they produce 14.5 yards per completion while Tennessee manages just 10.4. On the ground the Tigers average a whopping 5.7 yards per carry and they should have a big game against this Volunteer unit that allows 5.2 ypc. The FBS average is 4.3 ypc which is further illustration of the mismatch in the trenches. Auburn finishes the regular season hosting both Georgia and Alabama. Those games will be virtually meaningless if they don |
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11-09-13 | Missouri -14 v. Kentucky | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 5 m | Show | |
143 Missouri at Kentucky
The Tigers rebounded nicely from the last second loss to South Carolina. That shows character, something this week |
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11-09-13 | Vanderbilt +10 v. Florida | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 115 h 4 m | Show | |
147 Vanderbilt at Florida
Lot |
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11-09-13 | Florida State -34.5 v. Wake Forest | 59-3 | Win | 100 | 72 h 46 m | Show | |
133 Florida State at Wake Forest
With an Oregon win over Stanford this week the Ducks will leapfrog the Seminoles in the BCS standings. With only Wake Forest, Syracuse, Idaho and Florida remaining for the Seminoles they must run up scores. Everyone is counting on a letdown after blowing away Miami Florida, but the talent difference is too great for that to happen. The projected letdown situation is keeping this line in check. The Seminoles have a 4.2 yards per play advantage against Wake Forest. They have a .51 points per play edge in this game. That means based on a 65 play projection the Seminoles should win by 33.5 points not including running up the score. Wake hasn |
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11-09-13 | Kansas State +3 v. Texas Tech | 49-26 | Win | 100 | 72 h 42 m | Show | |
155 Kansas State at Texas Tech
Kansas State has covered their last four games by 43 combined points. The Wildcats are 11-3 ATS as a RD since Bill Snyder returned as this has been an outstanding role for the veteran coach. The Wildcats have beaten Texas Tech by a combined score of 96-58 the last two years, covering by 34 combined points. Over the last five games of the season, the last two plus years Texas Tech is 1-11 SU with the only win coming in double overtime against Kansas. This is a team without a lot of depth and they continually break down as the season unfolds. Think of the Big 12 version of Northwestern. Texas Tech has beaten SMU, Stephen F Austin, TCU, Texas State, Kansas, Iowa State and West Virginia. Not exactly murderers row. TCU is the best team they played and the Horned Frogs are 2-6 on the season. Texas Tech is overrated based on an easy schedule. The Wildcats are the more accomplished team PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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11-08-13 | Air Force v. New Mexico OVER 59 | 37-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show | |
118 Air Force at New Mexico
This is an interesting handicap when it comes to the total. Both teams run forms of the option, which is what each squad sees in practice all season long. Therefore the defenses have an advantage. Both teams have struggled defending the pass, but neither team throws the ball very often. Therefore the defenses have the advantage. Both points involve sound reasoning. So why are we projecting a high scoring game? Because both of these defenses are terrible and both offenses can run the football. The FBS average is 4.3 yards per carry. Air Force runs for 4.9 ypc and allows 4.8. New Mexico on the other hand produces a whopping 6.3 ypc and allows the same 6.3 ypc. You don |
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11-07-13 | Oklahoma v. Baylor -15 | 12-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
110 Oklahoma at Baylor
Simply put we have not been overly impressed by the Sooners this year. Every team they |
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11-06-13 | Central Michigan +21 v. Ball State | 24-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
105 Central Michigan at Ball State
The Chippewas have been an afterthought in the MAC this year which provides us with plenty of value here. Central has played the much tougher schedule after facing the likes of Michigan, Toledo, NC State, Ohio U and Northern Illinois. Despite back to back losing seasons in 2010 and 2011 this is a proud program that has had great success in this league. Dan Enos in his fourth year is making strides and coming in off a Little Caesars Bowl victory last year, the Chippewas are much better than their 3-5 record shows. This team is well rested after having not played since October 19th against Northern Illinois. In that game the Huskies ran all over this team but Ball State hasn |
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11-02-13 | Pittsburgh v. Georgia Tech -9.5 | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 120 h 25 m | Show | |
330 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech
The Pitt Panthers have had virtually no running game as of late putting up 166 combined yards the past three games. Despite playing the easier of the two schedules the Panthers are rushing for a whopping 1.8 yards less per attempt than the Yellow Jackets. Pitt has to have the ability to take time off the clock in order to rest their defense, or this could be a long game for the Panther stop unit. To Pittsburgh's credit they just played a similarly styled Navy team but Paul Chryst and company lost that contest as a road favorite. Pitt has failed to cover the number in all three road games this season, and they have only reached 28 points in one road game the past 2 1/2 years. Georgia Tech won at Virginia last week by double digits despite a negative 4 turnover margin. Now that's impressive! In fact, the Yellow Jackets are 3-3-1 ATS on the season despite a minus 7 turnover margin. Considering that the style of play the Yellow Jackets prefer is running the football those numbers are substantial. At 4-3 on the year and with contests against Clemson and Georgia coming after the bye, this is a must win game for Paul Johnson and company. With Pitt struggling to run the football and with an offensive line allowing 12% sacks, we feel the Yellow Jackets will simply wear down this Pittsburgh squad. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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11-02-13 | Northern Illinois -23 v. UMass | 63-19 | Win | 100 | 67 h 59 m | Show | |
321 Northern Illinois at Massachusetts
Now that the Huskies are moving up the charts with an undefeated record it |
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11-02-13 | Ohio State -32 v. Purdue | 56-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 18 m | Show | |
361 Ohio State at Purdue
Wanted to get this out now as we expect a run on this number early in the morning of game day. Urban Meyer has never been shy about running up scores when he has the better athletes. He |
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10-31-13 | Arizona State v. Washington State +12 | 55-21 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
312 Arizona State at Washington State
The Sun Devils sit at 5-2 on the season with both losses coming away from Tempe. Defeats at Stanford and a neutral site game in Arlington Texas against Notre Dame. Arizona State managed just 115 combined rushing yards in those two contests. The visitor has struggled as of late in this series dropping the last four meetings. In fact, despite being road favorites of 11 1/2 and 21 points the last two times the Sun Devils visited Pullman, Arizona State was only able to outscore the Cougars 54-51. Keep in mind in those two seasons Washington State finished with a combined 5-19 record. Washington State hasn |
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10-26-13 | South Carolina +3 v. Missouri | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 7 m | Show | |
189 South Carolina at Missouri
The Gamecocks have played the slightly tougher schedule and they are playing their third straight game on the road. But it's also their last road game of the season, and other than a year ending game against in-state rival Clemson the path looks to be smooth sailing with a win here. South Carolina is 14-10 ATS in the road dog role and in Steve Spurrier's coaching career he is 39-26-1 SU off an outright loss. The Gamecocks have out gained every opponent this year except Georgia, and have virtually identical numbers in all the key statistics despite Missouri playing a little easier schedule. A major reason for Missouri being favored here is turnovers. They have lost only 3 fumbles this year while the Gamecocks have lost 9. That's likely not a sustainable stat. South Carolina's defense is better than the stats show as they are only allowing 11.2 first downs per game on first and second down. That means they have the ability to limit big plays and make the offense work harder than the raw numbers show. While South Carolina is off a loss as a road favorite at Tennessee, Missouri is in a letdown spot this week. Two weeks ago Missouri as a 7 point road underdog shocked Georgia. Unfortunately starting QB James Franklin went down in that contest and is likely out for the entire season. In stepped highly touted QB Maty Mauk who not only didn't falter against Georgia, but he led the team to a victory last week against Florida. Teams have a tendency to pull together in the face of key injuries which is exactly what the Tigers did. But now after the back to back huge victories to put Missouri on the map a letdown is sure to occur. Missouri is a very good team but the situation calls for the Gamecocks here. We get a terrific spot with at least a team of equal ability at a nice underdog price. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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10-26-13 | Utah +6.5 v. USC | Top | 3-19 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 50 m | Show |
149 Utah at USC
Now that QB Travis Wilson has greatly improved at practice we will send this selection out while 7's are still available. The last two seasons the Utes gave ranked USC squads all they could handle and at this point we are not sure that Kyle Whittingham's team isn't the better squad. Utah has played the significantly tougher schedule and yet have very comparable numbers. When making the needed adjustments regarding the opposition Utah is equal or even better in most of the key statistics. USC still has a slight edge defensively but the Utah offense towers over this scoring unit for the Trojans. Not only is the USC offense weak, it's missing virtually all it's starting skill position players. This is a banged up offense that has been held to 7, 10 and 17 points so far this season. While this Ute defense isn't stellar we can't see these remaining Trojan bodies putting up more than 20 points in this game. That's why taking the current touchdown has so much value. The Trojans most impressive victories this season came against Arizona and Utah State, two teams that for various reasons have not lived up to preseason expectations. Utah on the other hand beat two outstanding football teams in Stanford and BYU. While the attitude in Los Angeles is better since the coaching change the players on hand haven't impressed with their play. PLAY UTAH |
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10-26-13 | Wake Forest v. Miami (Florida) -23 | 21-24 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 45 m | Show | |
160 Wake Forest at Miami Florida
These two clubs have played virtually identical schedules on the season so the numbers are very easy to compare. The Demon Deacons at one time were an excellent road dog under Jim Grobe but those times have changed. Over the past seven seasons Grobe has posted a 7-17 spread mark catching points away from Winston-Salem. Wake has yet to out gain any FBS opponent by more than 10 yards in any game and that includes the likes of Louisiana Monroe and Army. This team has been held to double digit rushing yardage in 4 of 6 games against the FBS. The Demon Deacons are averaging just 4.8 yards per play on offense as opposed to Miami's whopping 7.3. The Hurricanes are permitting an opponent quarterback rating of 55.8 while the FBS average is 80.5. At 2.8 yards per carry offensively for Wake Forest and with a terrific pass defense for Miami, my question would be how is this Demon Deacon squad going to score? The line in this game is being held down because of the lookahead situation for Miami. They have in-state rival Florida State on deck. But recent history shows no lookahead to the Seminoles has been involved. The last three seasons prior to taking on Florida State Miami is 3-0 ATS covering the pointspread by a combined 29 1/2 points, roughly 10 points per game. Wake has no way to move the football on Miami and in turn no chance for the backdoor cover. We will lay the wood with the much better team at a cheap price. PLAY MIAMI FLORIDA |
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10-25-13 | Boise State +7 v. BYU | 20-37 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 28 m | Show | |
109 Boise State at BYU
The Boise State starting quarterback is out in this contest, backup Grant Hedrick gets the start. He was 18 for 21 last week against Nevada in a backup role, rushing for 115 yards, the first time since 2004 a Boise State QB ran for over 100 yards. His dual ability will make it tougher defensively for the Cougars. Boise has out gained the opposition in 6 straight games as the team has progressed nicely since the opening week debacle against Washington. The Broncos have run for over 200 yards in 5 of 7 games. Boise State has won all 3 of the previous meetings including a 7-6 victory over BYU last year in one of the biggest defensive battles we have ever witnessed. Both teams are virtually equal in almost all the key stat categories although BYU has played a slightly tougher schedule. Therefore the line should be in the 4 range, we are getting an extra 3 points based on the QB change, which we feel isn't fully warranted. In fact, many in the Boise State community are questioning why Joe Southwick should get his job back after the injury. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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10-24-13 | Marshall v. Middle Tenn State UNDER 57 | 49-51 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 43 m | Show | |
108 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State
The Thundering Herd came into the season with high offensive expectations. With NFL QB prospect Rakeem Cato at the helm and coming off a season where Marshall averaged 40.9 points per game, the sky was the limit for this offense. After averaging just 21.8 ppg in 2011 this scoring unit was due for regression and that's exactly what has happened to Doc Holliday's club. After starting the season strong against the likes of Miami Ohio and Gardner-Webb this team hasn't been nearly as dynamic offensively. On the season Marshall is averaging just 5.3 yards per play which is less that the FBS average of 5.6. That despite playing a very weak schedule. With Middle Tennessee currently sitting at the league average in yards per play against we can't see this Thundering Herd offense breaking out on Thursday. Marshall is averaging an FBS average of .39 points per play and that has again been vs weak opposition. Defensively Marshall has been extremely good over the course of the season. Allowing 4.5 ypp and .30 points per play. They should have little problem containing a Blue Raider offense that has been terrible all season. Rick Stockstill has done an excellent job since coming to Murfreesboro in 2006. He took his team to the GoDaddy Bowl in 2010 and is coming off a solid 8-4 season. But this years club pales in comparison, especially on the offensive side of the football. This club is averaging just 18.8 points per game and 4.5 yards per play. The passing game is at 8.8 yards per completion which is well below the FBS average of 12.1. This team can't extend the field offensively and they don't have the ability to come from behind. Defensively the Blue Raiders are grading out as an FBS average stop unit, but they have played a tougher schedule than today's opponent. Coming off back to back games against East Carolina and North Texas this stop unit won't be overwhelmed against this Marshall offense. With the two best units on the field likely being the defenses and with Middle Tennessee State having a hell of a time moving the football, points will surely be at a premium in this contest. PLAY UNDER |
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10-19-13 | Georgia State +17 v. Texas State | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 80 h 40 m | Show | |
Georgia State at Texas State
The Panthers have had a rough go of it stepping into their first year of FBS Football. But this is a team that is slowly but surely getting better week after week. Obviously they are overmatched when stepping on the field against the likes of Alabama. But this team can be competitive when stepping down in class like last week against Troy. This is a team that has played the much tougher FBS schedule taking on the likes of West Virginia and Alabama. We also have a club that has cashed four straight games getting over two touchdowns against a team that owns just one quality victory, a 2 1/2 hour lightning delayed win against Wyoming. The Bobcats were out gained by multiple season winless Southern Miss by 185 yards and Louisiana by 376 yards. Texas State has lost outright 3 of the last 4 weeks with the only win being the afore mentioned Wyoming delay game, a contest where the home team had a huge advantage. Texas State is averaging 21.8 points per game on the season against Southern Miss, Texas Tech, Wyoming, Louisiana and UL Monroe. This team simply doesn't have the fire power to lay this type of number to anyone, even a weak team such as this one. The Bobcats are averaging 4.6 yards per play, the exact same number as Georgia State despite playing the far weaker FBS schedule. We won't call for the outright upset but this game will go down to the wire. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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10-19-13 | Auburn +13 v. Texas A&M | 45-41 | Win | 100 | 77 h 38 m | Show | |
Auburn at Texas A&M
Huge revenge game here for the Tigers who were simply embarrassed last year losing 63-21 while hosting Johnny Football and company. The 671 total yards allowed in that game was the most ever permitted in the history of Auburn football. While the Tigers finished the year 3-9 this seasons edition is a much stronger one. Auburn is only permitting 5.8 yards per play which is slightly higher than the FBS average. But this team has faced some pretty good offenses in Washington State, Arkansas State, LSU and Mississippi. Coming off an FCS opponent in Western Carolina you can guess that Gus Malzahn and company worked a bit defending this team in practice last week. With lowly Florida Atlantic on deck you know the team has had this game circled. Texas A&M will put up a lot of points in this game, that much is expected. But this defense has many cracks, particularly in the run game in which Auburn can take advantage. The Aggies have yet to cover a game by more than two points all season, as you are always paying a tariff when backing this high scoring unit. With a schedule that provides clear sailing until a trip to LSU on November 23rd, we can easily see this team overlooking an angry foe that they dominated last season. That has been the character of this team with Manziel behind center and this defense simply cannot be trusted. PLAY AUBURN |
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10-19-13 | Navy v. Toledo -7.5 | Top | 44-45 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 14 m | Show |
Navy at Toledo
For the second straight week the Midshipmen face a team coming off of a bye. That isn't good news for Navy as a major advantage they have in-season is that the opposition rarely sees the Navy option. Getting the extra week to prepare for it is one big advantage for the opposition. Just last week Duke was coming off a bye and they led wire to wire in a dominating victory. The last three games Navy has been outscored by 22 combined points and out gained by 336 combined yards despite playing the likes of Duke, Air Force and Western Kentucky. The Midshipmen are only averaging 20.8 points per game despite playing against very giving defenses. While Toledo does have a big game on deck against Bowling Green, the Rockets have beaten the Falcons each of the last three seasons. This is a team that has gone 5-0-1 ATS against non-conference FBS competition and has already faced Florida, Missouri and an excellent Ball State squad. Toledo has the better overall numbers in this contest despite playing a stronger strength of schedule. The Glass Bowl has been very good to the host as they have never had a losing home spread record in any season in the last decade, that includes a perfect 2-0 spread mark this year. Toledo is permitting just 3.8 yards per attempt this season and that includes a 5.5 ypr Florida success rate in the opener. Since that game this Rocket defense has been stellar against the run, which is the strength of this Navy squad. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-12-13 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss +6.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 58 h 4 m | Show | |
136 Texas A&M at Mississippi
The Aggies had major turnover problems with Ole Miss last year and nearly suffered the outright loss as a 13 1/2 point road favorite. Despite an undefeated season thus far for Texas A&M this team has some major problems that need to be addressed. Keep in mind only once all season has this team won the yardage battle by over 150 yards, and that mismatch came against FCS entrant Sam Houston State. While Johnny Football and the offense once again looks dominant, the defense looks like a sieve. In the opener against Rice the team was missing key defensive starters, but since that time they have simply underperformed. Mississippi started the season strong but the last two weeks the offense couldn't get on track against Alabama & Auburn on the road. But now back home taking on the weak defense of the Aggies the real Mississippi scoring unit should return. The Rebels are averaging roughly the same amount of offensive yards as an median FCS squad, yet they faced three SEC defenses along with one of the better stop units in the Big 12. Plenty of value on the Rebels here based on the past two weeks struggles. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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10-12-13 | Miami (OH) v. Massachusetts Minutemen -3 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 117 h 31 m | Show | |
118 Miami Ohio at Massachusetts
Not even a coaching change will keep us from betting against these Redhawks. After two plus bad seasons in Oxford Don Treadwell has been fired after losing badly once against last week. This time Central Michigan beat the Redhawks on the road, a major feat indeed as the Chippewas had only won a combined five road games the previous 3+ seasons. Miami has been outscored by 38, 36 and 34 points away from home this year and they haven't surpassed 14 points scored in any of their first five contests. On paper this UMass team doesn't look a whole lot better. But keep in mind that the Minutemen faced a much tougher schedule thus far. Games against Wisconsin, Kansas State, Vanderbilt and Bowling Green have toughened up this squad for a major drop down in opposing talent. While the offense is in the same boat at the Redhawks scoring wise this team is only being beaten in first downs by 6.5 a game while Miami is being out-firstdowned by 17.6 per contest. Massachusetts didn't win a conference home game all last year in their first season in the MAC. They have been pointing to this contest as a coming out game, and they finally face a team of similar talent. In the last four games UMass has been out gained by a combined 722 total yards, Miami against lesser competition have been out yarded by a whopping 1186 yards. Only Wisconsin completely dominated UMass, while the Redhawks have been out gained by 280 yards or more on four occasions. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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10-10-13 | Arizona v. USC -5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 79 h 55 m | Show |
108 Arizona at USC
The last five meetings between these two have been decided by 7 points or less as Arizona has held their own against the Trojans. But neither team in this contest has a passing game to speak of and the USC personnel on defense is much superior to any unit the Wildcats put on the field. Arizona has amassed 445 total passing yards on the season despite playing three really bad football teams out of their four game schedule. Northern Arizona, UNLV and UTSA aren't exactly household names when it comes to pass defense and the Wildcats couldn't out gain any of those squads through the air. Arizona is averaging only 5.0 yards per play which is well below the 5.6 FBS average. And that was against a very weak schedule. USC on the other hand only permits 4.7 yards per play and their schedule featured the likes of Washington State, Utah State and Arizona State, three very good offenses. USC is allowing only 3.5 yards per rush which is well below the 4.3 ypr FBS average. They have the ability to stymie the Arizona rushing attack and for the Wildcats to pass the ball, something they haven't done all season. Now that the Lane Kiffin era is over for the Trojans, we can see this team coming out and proving a point from here on out, especially this week. The bye after the Arizona State debacle couldn't have come at a better time. This is a program that recruits the best of the best as the talent level far surpasses that of Arizona which is known as a basketball school. The best unit on the field is the USC defense and we can see that stop unit forcing at least one major mistake out of this limited Arizona scoring unit. This number is extremely cheap. PLAY USC |
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10-05-13 | Washington Huskies v. Stanford -7 | 28-31 | Loss | -112 | 32 h 24 m | Show | |
382 Washington at Stanford
Washington has been explosive offensively but it's come against very suspect defenses. Boise State, Illinois and Arizona have all been burned on a regular basis. In last years contest the Cardinal blew a third quarter lead and Washington took advantage of turnovers. This is the first true road game for the Huskies who faced Illinois in Chicago the only other time they left the state of Washington. This team has never posted a winning spread mark as a road favorite in any year with Steve Sarkisian at the helm. In fact, it's only happened one year in the last decade as travel has not been good for this extreme northwest team. The Cardinal has lost just one regular season game in regulation the past four seasons to a team not named Oregon. That happened last year when Stanford traveled to Seattle to take on the Huskies as a 6 1/2 point road favorite. The only other regular season loss of any kind in that time frame was a 54-48 overtime loss to Notre Dame last year, a game with a very controversial outcome. And we all know the Irish ended up playing in the national championship game. Stanford is averaging a whopping .64 points per play on the season with an FBS average of .39. The passing numbers have been outstanding and the Cardinal has the ability to beat you on the ground. Defensively they are allowing just 9.2 yards per completion which is among the nation's best. PLAY STANFORD |
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10-05-13 | Central Florida v. Memphis +10 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 26 m | Show | |
368 Central Florida at Memphis
Central Florida is coming off a huge game in Orlando against South Carolina. The campus was stoked for a rare chance to host a team from the SEC. This was the game that every player circled on the calendar. The Knights got off to a great start knocking out the Gamecock signal caller and had what looked like a solid lead heading into the half. Unfortunately the second stanza was quite different from the first. Now off a major game in which so much energy was expended the Knights travel to Memphis to take on a team they have beaten by margins of 18, 41, 20 and 18 points the last four seasons. The Central Florida passing attack has been solid but the run game isn't anything special when you consider two of four opponents have been Akron and Florida International. Memphis is a much improved team under second year coach Justin Fuente. After being outscored by margins of 18.8, 25.4 and 13.0 the prior three seasons, under Fuente last year the Tigers cut the deficit to just 5.9 points per game. With 16 returning starts this is a team we are looking to back when the price is right. While the Knights were tangling with a top level SEC squad last week the Tigers were resting. After winning a combined five home games the previous three seasons the Tigers put up a respectable 3-3 mark last year at Liberty Bowl Stadium. All three contests for the Tigers this season went under the posted total by double digits, so we don't expect many points to be scored. Catching double digits with a home underdog on the rise is the way to go in this contest. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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10-05-13 | Georgia -10 v. Tennessee | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
347 Georgia at Tennessee
Too much of an overreaction in this line after the Bulldogs beat LSU last Saturday. This is a team that has gone 7-2 SU on the road the past three seasons with the only losses coming at Clemson and South Carolina. Georgia is averaging a whopping 554 yards per game and that includes contests against Clemson, South Carolina and LSU. Now that's impressive. Aaron Murray is averaging 17.3 yards per completion, well above the 11.9 FBS average. Tennessee is allowing 14.5 yards per pass completion so this could be another record setting day for the Georgia signal caller. Right now leading rusher Todd Gurley is listed as questionable. We don't expect him to play, so when it's announced we expect this line to go down somewhat. So you may want to wait a bit to get this one in. Regardless we are very comfortable with the current 10 point tariff. While Georgia has already had a bye week this will be the sixth straight week of football for the Volunteers. They were blown out when stepping up in class against Oregon, but have underperformed for most of the year against weaker opposition. Tennessee played relatively well against Florida, but the Gators don't have a competent signal caller. The Volunteers have a weak passing game which is a concern as they will need to trade points with Georgia in this contest to remain competitive. This team has been out gained in 3 of 4 FBS contests and only held a 90 yard advantage last week hosting South Alabama. Even in the contest against FCS Austin Peay the Volunteers couldn't produce a passing yardage edge. PLAY GEORGIA |
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10-05-13 | Kansas State +14 v. Oklahoma State | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 47 h 35 m | Show | |
361 Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Much respect to Mike Gundy and the Cowboys at home but this line is much too high not to favor the underdog Wildcats. Since Bill Snyder returned to Manhattan the Wildcats are now 12-6 ATS against conference opponents. 10-3 ATS when installed as a road underdog against any opponent. Off a disappointing loss to Texas followed by a bye week, we take advantage of a coaching edge here with the veteran Snyder. The last three seasons Kansas State has been outscored by Oklahoma State 106-103, a 3 point margin. In those games the Wildcats were a combined 34 point underdog. The Wildcats are converting on a whopping 59% of their third down attempts, as this team can beat you through the air or on the ground. Oklahoma State is off an upset loss at West Virginia, the same Mountaineers team that lost to Maryland in blow out fashion. And in retrospect West Virginia was the better team on the field. We have serious concerns about this Cowboy defense which is permitting over 303 passing yards per contest against FBS competition. That includes Mississippi State, UTSA and West Virginia, not elite squads by any means. Plenty of points will be scored in this one but rarely does a Bill Snyder team get outworked. An outright victory may be too much to ask but in all honesty it wouldn't be a surprising outcome. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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09-28-13 | USC +6 v. Arizona State | 41-62 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 55 m | Show | |
149 USC v Arizona State
The Trojans have owned this series winning outright 12 of the last 13 contests. This is a team that had high expectations entering the year as always but now they are an afterthought in the PAC 12. The offense has really struggled to score as it's now clear that neither one of these signal callers are up to typical Trojan standards. That said, this defense is outstanding. USC is allowing 11 points and 230 yards per game. This unit is permitting 110 yards per game less on the ground than the FBS average. USC is allowing 3.7 yards per play while the average is 5.6, needless to say this stop unit has been impressive. The opposing passer rating for this team is 50.5 as they have been equally strong against the pass. Coach Kiffin knows the best way for this team to compete this season is by playing strong defense and working on field position. Arizona State has a strong passing attack but they don't run the ball very effectively, which makes them a one-dimensional team here. While the offense has averaged 30 points per game they are actually worse than the FBS average in yards per play. The completion rate and passer rating are also below average. Defensively we have major concerns about this stop unit that permits 36 points per contest. The Sun Devils are permitting over 235 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.5 yards per play. Off physical games against Wisconsin and Stanford this ASU stop unit can't be at their best here, while USC is off three straight home affairs. PLAY USC |
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09-28-13 | Wyoming -11.5 v. Texas State Bobcats | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 29 m | Show | |
179 Wyoming v Texas State
Can't help but to be impressed with what Dave Christensen has accomplished in Laramie. With 14 returning starters this year this team is loaded offensively with NFL bound signal caller Brett Smith leading the way. The Cowboys have out gained every opponent they have played including a trip to Lincoln when they faced Nebraska in the opener. Wyoming has now covered 7 of 8 when hitting the road and they won't be intimidated in this trip to Texas. Because of the proximity of Laramie every road game is a tough trip for Wyoming and yet they have proven themselves away from home time after time. Against FBS competition the Cowboys have put up 602, 564 and 622 yards this season. We can't see this Texas State defense slowing down this train. The Bobcats have been out gained by 497 total yards in two contests against FBS competition. They allowed 811 yards in those two games through the air. That was against Southern Miss, a team that went the entire year winless last season, and Texas Tech, a team that is extremely young offensively. If Wyoming and Smith come to play we can see them cracking 50 points themselves in this contest. The Bobcats offense isn't any better, running for less than 100 yards per game and passing to more than 100 yards less than the FBS average. We really like Dennis Franchione as a coach but he just doesn't have the horses to keep this game close. PLAY WYOMING |
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09-21-13 | Kent State v. Penn State -21 | Top | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 50 h 43 m | Show |
328 Kent State at Penn State
The Golden Flashes just haven't been a productive offense without key playmaker Dri Archer who was the catalyst for this team last season when they put up 33.1 points per game. He is listed as doubtful for this weekend contest with Penn State, and with MAC play starting fully next week we really can't see head coach Paul Haynes putting him on the field. Before the season we projected the Nittany Lions to be a 21 point favorite here, so in our mind the huge loss of Archer hasn't been factored into the line nearly enough. In two games against FBS competition Kent State is being out gained by 597 total yards. Both Bowling Green and LSU dominated this team with physical play, and being physical defensively is the trademark of Penn State. Kent hasn't shown the ability to run without Archer and Penn State is excellent against the rush allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. That's makes the Golden Flashes one dimensional offensively which is not what you want going against bigger and faster players. FBS average yards per play right now is 5.7. Penn State is averaging 6.6 against Syracuse, Eastern Michigan and Central Florida, while Kent is allowing a whopping 9.3 yards per play, including 6.3 yards per rush. Bill O'Brien and the Nittany Lions were a perfect 4-0 ATS off a straight up loss last year in his initial season. Now playing a team in which they have the physical ability to impose their will on, puts us squarely on the favorite here. PLAY PENN STATE |
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09-21-13 | North Texas +33 v. Georgia | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 69 h 19 m | Show | |
307 North Texas at Georgia
Inspiring come from behind victory last week for the Mean Green who used the southern heat to their advantage in the second half against Ball state. Now sitting at 2-1 on the season without being beat up by superior competition, this Dan McCarney squad could be a surprise money maker for backers the rest of the way. Since McCarney took over the program in 2011 the Mean Green have been road underdogs at BCS programs three times, cashing each game. As a 27 1/2 point dog to #15 ranked Kansas State they easily covered 35-21. As a 44 point underdog at #3 LSU North Texas lost 41-14, another easy spread cover. In 2011 they played at #2 Alabama and easily covered the spread without scoring a point in a 41-0 defeat. That's three covers against ranked opposition by pointspread margins of 13 1/2, 17 and 6. North Texas won't fall victim to the Georgia heat here and with a bye on deck the Bulldogs get their full attention. Georgia is coming off a bye but with this game sandwiched between Clemson, South Carolina and LSU we can see the Bulldogs using that extra prep time for the Tigers next week. Last year Georgia was a home favorite of 30 or more three times, failing to cover the number in each game by margins of 4 1/2, 5 1/2 and 15 points. Mark Richt hasn't distinguished himself in the home favorite role overall or hosting non-conference opposition. Georgia has permitted 34 ppg against Clemson and South Carolina along with allowing 5.2 yards per carry on the ground, North Texas has the ability to move the football here. With only LSU and Florida left on the schedule to boost the Bulldogs in the polls, we fully expect Georgia to overlook the Mean Green. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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09-19-13 | Clemson -13.5 v. North Carolina State | 26-14 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 26 m | Show | |
303 Clemson at NC State
The Tigers went 3-0 ATS in the road favorite role last year beating Boston College 45-31, Wake Forest 42-13 and Duke 56-20. When they have the superior athletes they dominate. If they can reach the 40 point marker in this one we have a hard time thinking they won't cover. This team can score on anyone, in fact they put up 37 last year at Florida State. After facing off against Georgia in the opener the Tigers played South Carolina State 12 days ago and haven't played since. No lookahead either for Clemson as a home game with Wake Forest is on deck. With an NFL caliber signal caller the Tigers have a huge edge behind center in this contest. We have a penchant for home underdogs in nationally televised affairs but this dog just doesn't have the bite. While the team looked good against a very down Louisiana Tech squad in the opener, it was more of a situation where the Bulldogs were transitioning under new head man Skip Holtz. If you've noticed Louisiana Tech has yet to look like a competent football team in any game since. NC State is using Colorado State transfer Pete Thomas behind center and he hasn't adjusted well. In fact, you can probably say that the drop off from last years signal caller Mike Glennon to Thomas is the biggest drop in the FBS. Despite playing in the defensively challenged Mountain West Conference he had thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. NC State struggled to beat Richmond a couple weeks ago who has since lost to Gardner-Webb. The same GW team who lost to Marshall 55-0. Even with an NFL draft pick signal caller the last two years the Wolfpack posted a combined 15-11 record. Without him the drop off is huge. With just ten returning starters NC State could be looking at a very tough year. PLAY CLEMSON |
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09-14-13 | Wisconsin v. Arizona State -5 | 30-32 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 53 m | Show | |
Wisconsin at Arizona State
These two last met up in Madison in 2010 as the Badgers held on for a 20-19 victory as a 12 point favorite. Since that time Wisconsin has faced off against another PAC 12 entrant Oregon State twice winning 35-0 in 2011 at home, and dropping a 10-7 snooze fest last season as a 7 point road favorite. In a very rare occurrence for the third week of the season we find two teams going head to head that have not permitted a single point thus far in the season. That stat is guaranteed to change here. Teams from the Big 10 never fare well when traveling west of the Mississippi, and we find two of them traveling out west this week. Along with Ohio State who goes to California, the Badgers head to the desert. When the Golden Nugget released this game in their Game of the Year packet months ago the line was a pick 'em. By the time I was able to get back in line to bet it the line had jumped to Arizona State -3. (The Nugget limits participants to only four bets before you have to head to the back of the line.) With many other temping morsels we were not able to get the best line on this game at the time. Still with the current number sitting at 5 there is value on the Sun Devils laying under a touchdown. This is a statement game for the host who has had this game circled all offseason. The chance to beat a team that has played in the Rose Bowl the last three years is big for Todd Graham and this Arizona State program. With temperatures expected to be in the 100 degree range we look for the Badgers to wilt in the second half. PLAY ARIZONA STATE |