Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 36 m | Show |
209 Middle Tennessee State & Arkansas State in Montgomery, Alabama Brent Stockstill has been a stud for the Blue Raiders when he has been healthy. That’s where we find the Middle Tennessee signal caller on Saturday. With the son of the coach behind center we expect big things from this squad. Middle Tennessee has moved the ball well against this level of competition. The problem has been first half turnovers. Down 13 turnovers in the first half of games despite producing an 8-4 yards per play advantage. Arkansas State just lost the conference title to Troy 32-25. That was the game this team wanted, especially playing at home. The Sun Belt is the lowest rated conference in the country, yet the Red Wolves have been installed as the favorite here. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State has a +27 explosive play margin on the season, while Arkansas State sits at +10. Better team from the better conference as an underdog. Can’t beat that combination. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +6.5 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 45 m | Show | |
201 North Texas & Troy in New Orleans Some money is coming in on the Mean Green here and we fully agree. We get the team from the better conference as an underdog, and if the Mean Green take care of the football the stats show this game to be a coin flip. North Texas has an explosive offense which can trade points with anyone. Troy just won the Sun Belt with a 32-25 victory over Arkansas State. Many will remember the shocker it pulled off at LSU beating the Tigers 24-21. But despite a solid overall record this team played a very easy schedule. We will take the points here in a game that should be an exciting bank and forth showdown. PLAY NORTH TEXAS |
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12-02-17 | Georgia Southern v. Costal Carolina +3 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 35 m | Show | |
310 Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina The Eagles look like a different team since the coaching change, winning two straight and covering 4 of 5. But despite the improvements in Statesboro we are surprised by this current line. We actually have Coastal favored here based on a great situational spot for the host. Georgia Southern is now playing its ninth straight week as its last bye happened on September 30th. The Chanticleers on the other hand had last week off after a 13-7 win in Idaho. Now the first year FBS squad can end the season on a two game winning streak by taking care of business at home. On the season Coastal is exactly even in explosive plays, at 44 each way. Georgia Southern on the other hand is -25 on the year, allowing a whopping 58 plays of 20 yards or more. Even in this covering string the Eagles have permitted 25 while accumulating just 16 explosive plays. Last weeks win at Louisiana was the first road win of the season for Georgia Southern, just can’t trust them as a road favorite here. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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11-25-17 | Clemson v. South Carolina +13.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
198 Clemson at South Carolina We’ve had this game circled all season just like the homesteading Gamecocks. We love Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for, but it’s a miracle how well this team has done with such a drop-off in talent. Despite having the better personnel in a vast majority of games, the Tigers have only started three first half drives in opponent territory. The defense just isn’t the same as in past editions. While very good it’s not excellent as it was a year ago. As for the key stat of explosive plays, Clemson is +6 on the season. The worst for all the teams considered to be in the running for the Final Four. South Carolina is +8 on the season in explosive plays and it has eight drives starting in opponent territory in the first half. Will Muschamp has done an outstanding job in his second year in Columbia. While the stats don’t always show it, this team finds ways to win. This is a huge rivalry in the state of South Carolina. Last year Clemson pummeled the Gamecocks 56-7. You know this game has been circled and now South Carolina has the personnel to take this to the wire. An outright upset would not surprise. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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11-25-17 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
163 Iowa State at Kansas State Really like the job Matt Campbell has done here in his second season. He took over a program that was 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 the previous three seasons. In just his second year the Cyclones had improved so much there was talk of the Big 12 Championship going through Ames. But after losses to West Virginia by 4 and Oklahoma State by 7 this team has become an afterthought. Not in our eyes as we really like the situation and the matchup here. Let’s take a look at how the Cyclones have done on the road this year. A 41-14 win at Akron who is playing in the MAC Championship game. A 38-31 win at Oklahoma, a team likely to play for the National Championship. A 31-13 win at Texas A&M, a 23-13 win at Baylor and a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. That’s a pretty good road season by anyones standards. Kansas State is exactly even in explosive plays this year, Iowa State is +15. The Wildcats haven’t has a bye since September 23rd, and are coming off three straight games that were get wrenching. A 42-35 overtime win at Texas Tech, a 28-23 loss hosting West Virginia, and a 45-40 upset victory at Oklahoma State last week. K State was a 19 1/2 point underdog in that contest. Can’t expect a full tank of gas out of the host here, who really shouldn’t be favored. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-24-17 | South Florida v. Central Florida -10 | 42-49 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
138 South Florida at Central Florida Likely the most overrated team in the country is the South Florida Bulls. This team has had a cakewalk schedule and lost to the only decent team it played, Houston as a 10 point favorite. The Knights will be much better than any squad this team has faced all year. This is a double revenge game for UCF after losing to the Bulls each of the last two seasons. While UCF hasn’t played a high quality schedule either, it did beat Memphis, Navy and SMU. UCF has a +39 explosive play advantage on the season, while the Bulls are at +19. A win here and the Knights finish the regular season undefeated. The double revenge angle doesn’t hurt. This team has had this game circled all year. Now its time to show your strengths. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-24-17 | Navy v. Houston -4.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
130 Navy at Houston We’ve been disappointed in this Navy team all season. Sure a 6-4 straight up mark is fine, but it pails in comparison to previous editions. A major problem is turnovers. This year in first half the Midshipmen are down 7 turnovers, something hard to imagine for a club that doesn’t throw the ball. In the last nine seasons Navy only had one year it didn’t have a turnover advantage. That was in 2014 when it was -4 on the year. Navy is also at a -7 margin in explosive plays. This team is also off a hard fought rivalry game with Notre Dame with Army on deck. Houston is the fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before coming up short at Tulane. That should provide all the motivation the Cougars need to end the regular season. Houston is +1 in explosive plays and does a nice job against the run. That’s the key in this matchup as Navy is one-dimensional. Houston lost to Navy last year as a 17 point favorite, so you know this team has had this game circled. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss +16 v. Mississippi State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
113 Mississippi at Mississippi State These two teams are heading in opposite directions heading into the Egg Bowl. Mississippi is playing much better ball down the stretch of the season, after struggling out of the gate. The Rebels are 2-2 SU with the losses coming by 7 points to Texas A&M and a single point against Arkansas. The offense has improved steadily, while the defense played its best two games of the season the past two weeks. The Mississippi State Bulldogs were riding high on a four game winning streak before hosting Alabama. The game was tied at the half and the Crimson Tide dominated late in a 7 point Bulldog loss. Last week this team really struggled against an Arkansas team that had fired its coach and athletic director. The offense hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as earlier in the year. Mississippi needs this game to be bowl eligible and looks for revenge after a 55-20 loss at this location last year. Keep in mind the Rebels had won 3 of the four previous meetings with the only defeat coming in overtime. This line is simply too high. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-21-17 | Kent State +15 v. Akron | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
101 Kent State at Akron This is the biggest rival for each of these programs as the campuses are roughly 20 miles from each other. The Golden Flashes have had a disappointing season but a season ending win over its rival would be a big boost to the offseason morale. Especially because it would likely keep Akron out of the MAC title game. Akron really pulled off a shocker last week beating Ohio U as a 15 point home underdog. That was after the Bobcats pounded Toledo the week before. We expect this Zips team to look more like the team that enters here with a 5-5 SU record in FBS games this season. Because of the importance of this game the line is 5 points higher than what it should be. For comparison sake let’s take a look at common opponents over the last 6 weeks. Akron was +15 at home last week against Ohio U, while a month ago the Flashes were +17 on the road in Athens. Six weeks ago Akron was +12 1/2 at Western Michigan, while two weeks ago the Flashes were +20 1/2 at the same venue. With these examples we see Akron being an 11 point favorite here at best. We take the generous number here as the Golden Flashes make this a game. PLAY KENT STATE |
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11-18-17 | Oklahoma -36.5 v. Kansas | 41-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
343 Oklahoma at Kansas Is is possible that the Sooners will have a letdown after facing TCU and Oklahoma State? Most likely. But is Kansas good enough to stop a possibly disinterested foe? Highly unlikely. With just Kansas and West Virginia to end the regular season the Sooners can only help themselves in the committee minds by winning in blowout fashion. Here is the season long explosive play numbers for these two teams. Oklahoma 88 to 48. Kansas 32 to 63. That’s a combined 71 explosive play difference for the Sooners. Sure the line is high but keep in mind Kansas has allowed 35 first half points three times this season.Oklahoma has produced 35 or better first half points three times this season. In the last two weeks the Sooners put up 38 first half points against TCU and Oklahoma State. This one should be decided very quickly. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
375 Virginia at Miami Florida The Cavaliers have really improved from the 2-10 season Bronco Mendenhall had in his first season in Charlottesville. Virginia has won 5 of 8 including beating Boise State and Georgia Tech. Miami should be in for a letdown here after facing Notre Dame and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. Keep in mind Miami has a short week ahead as it travels to Pittsburgh next Friday. After beating the Cavaliers the past two seasons we can see the Hurricane being let than focused here. While others vying for the national title have terrific explosive play numbers, Miami is only up 15 on the season. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-18-17 | UL-Monroe +37 v. Auburn | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
385 Louisiana Monroe at Auburn The Warhawks enter this game off a bye off wins over Appalachian State and Idaho. We expect the positive vibe to continue here as ULM looks to perform much better than last years 58-7 loss to these Tigers. This is the ultimate sandwich situation for the Tigers. Off beating #1 Georgia and having Alabama on deck. If Auburn can beat the Tide next week and Georgia again in the league championship, Auburn will have a chance to make the final four. We can see the coaching staff resting key players here, which will make it hard for the Tigers to surpass this number. PLAY ULM |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
308 Eastern Michigan at Miami Ohio The Eagles enter play out of the bowl picture after losing to Central Michigan a week ago. This is a team much better than its record, but have not had many breaks go its way this season. Six losses were either by 5 points or less. or in overtime which happened three games this season. In the last month alone Eastern lost two overtime games against Western Michigan and Northern Illinois. Now that the postseason is out of reach we can’t see how this team can right itself for the remaining two games. While Eastern Michigan is just playing out the string, Miami can still go bowling with wins over Eastern and Ball State. With the starting QB back and healthy we look for the Redhawks to do what it did last year, win late in the season to go bowling. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-14-17 | Ohio v. Akron UNDER 52 | 34-37 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 53 m | Show | |
302 Ohio U at Akron Huge game in the MAC tonight as a win for Ohio virtually clinches the division, but Akron will have a lot to say about it. History shows low scoring affairs. In fact, the same setup happened a year ago and these teams combined for only 12 points. The prior three seasons saw point totals of 26, 43 and 46 points. With the Zips offense struggling right now Akron will rely on a defense that has been solid all season when not outclassed as it was against Penn State, Iowa State and Toledo. We look for a tight low scoring game with this contest going under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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11-11-17 | Wyoming +3 v. Air Force | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 23 m | Show |
151 Wyoming at Air Force The Cowboys have cashed 9 straight games in this series and are playing the far better ball at the moment. Wyoming has won 5 of 6 with the only loss coming at league leading Boise State. The Cowboy defense has been outstanding holding all but one opponent this year to 24 points or less. The last three games Wyoming has only permitted 6 combined explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Air Force just had its record broken for the longest streak of games without getting shutout. That was in a 21-0 loss to rival Army. The Falcons are only 2-5 ATS after facing the Cadets. On the season Air Force has permitted 19 more explosive plays than earned, as opposed to the Cowboys who are only -3 on the season. PLAY WYOMING |
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11-11-17 | UAB +7.5 v. UTSA | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 100 h 42 m | Show | |
209 UAB at UTSA The amazing season on UAB football continues on Saturday. Things were so bad in Birmingham that the university didn’t even field a team the last two seasons. Now back, UAB enters play at 5-3 vs FBS opponents, including winning 4 of its last 5 games. The Blazers haven’t permitted more than 23 points in regulation the past five games. The Roadrunners are -1 on the season in explosive plays in conference, UAB is also at -1. UTSA isn’t exactly a powerhouse offensively with a high of 31 points coming against UTEP over the past five games. UTEP by most power ratings is last in college football. In what looks like a low scoring battle getting a number of this size is a gift. An outright upset would not surprise. PLAY UAB |
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11-11-17 | Troy v. Costal Carolina +17 | Top | 42-17 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
148 Troy at Coastal Carolina Can’t see the Trojans getting excited to play a team with one lone victory right before its bye week. Off its third straight victory on Thursday beating Idaho 24-21 the Trojans may be a bit overrated here. Coastal Carolina is stepping up to FBS level this year after winning 43 games at the FCS level the past four seasons. While the wins haven’t been there the energy has. Last week the Chanticleers almost knocked off Arkansas on the road as a 24 point underdog. On the season Coastal is +1 in explosive plays, right behind the +6 of Troy. This line is simply too high for the road favorite Trojans in a letdown situation. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 59 m | Show | |
117 North Carolina at Pittsburgh The Tar Heels were very competitive early in the season before major injuries took a toll on this team. Single digit losses to Virginia and Miami Florida continue to show the fight in this squad. Now off a bye week we look for North Carolina to come out fighting hard with winnable games at Pittsburgh and hosting Western Carolina on deck. Pitt has fared better in the win column, but isn’t really any better than its counterpart on Thursday. Both teams are at -8 in explosive plays on the season against similar schedules. Pittsburgh has only surpassed 31 points once all year, against Rice, one of the bottom feeders in FBS football. The last four meetings were decided by 7 points or less, which is where we see this one landing. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green +8 v. Buffalo | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
103 Bowling Green at Buffalo The Falcons have won the last six meetings in this series, and Buffalo hasn’t won any game against BG by this margin since 2005. Both teams have a +2 explosive play margin in Mid-American Conference action. Bowling Green played the tougher non-conference slate with Michigan and Northwestern. Buffalo faced Minnesota and Army. The Bulls haven’t surpassed 31 regulation points in any MAC game this year. The last three games saw them scoring 20, 14 and 13 points. Tough to lay this type of number against an offense which has averaged 36.5 points per game the last four outings. We like this Bulls team but this line is simply too high. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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11-04-17 | Illinois +14 v. Purdue | 10-29 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 9 m | Show | |
327 Illinois at Purdue In Big 10 play Illinois is 0-5 being outscored an average of 31.2-14.6. That’s 16.6 points per game with an explosive play advantage of 20 to 16. In conference play Purdue is 1-4 being outscored by an average of 20.2- 17.2. An average of just 3 points per game. The Boilermakers are at a deficit of 6 in explosive plays. The lone victory for Purdue over Minnesota 31-17 is what this line is based on, a game in which the team was behind 14-6 at the half. So while the league average shows Purdue to be a double digit favorite here, the eye test says something different. It’s very tough to lay this type of number when the club is averaging just 17.2 points per league contest. An outright upset here would not surprise. PLAY ILLINOIS |
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11-04-17 | UMass +31.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
373 Massachusetts at Mississippi State UMass has won two straight games beating Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. But this team has been very competitive all season long. In fact, its largest loss on the season was by 10 points twice. The Minutemen play to the finish, which is exactly what you are looking for with a sizable underdog. This is a sandwich spot for Miss State. Coming off Texas A&M and having its biggest game of the year on deck vs Alabama. The Bulldogs have lost nine straight games to the Crimson Tide. Who do you think this team is preparing for this week? PLAY MASSACHUSETTS |
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11-03-17 | Marshall +7.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 25-30 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show | |
317 Marshall at Florida Atlantic We expect a big bounce back week from the Thundering Herd after a 41-30 home loss to FIU. Marshall had run off five straight victories before that contest, holding 4 of 5 opponents to 10 points or less. The Thundering Herd have won all four meetings in this series with Florida Atlantic. The Owls have won four straight games after looking terrible out of the gate with Navy. But keep in mind all the weaknesses the teams the Owls faced have. Middle Tennessee State and Old Dominion are without starting quarterbacks. North Texas and Western Kentucky have regressed, especially the Hilltoppers after losing its head coach. So while we think the Owls are much improved, we aren’t buying into the huge power rating adjustment. Marshall has the better explosive play numbers and we can’t pass up this club getting a touchdown or more. PLAY MARSHALL |
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11-02-17 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -8 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
310 Northern Illinois at Toledo Simply can’t trust the Huskies here who have faced a full schedule of weak offensive opponents. Only once all season have Northern Illinois surpassed 14 first half points, and that won’t get it done against this dynamic Rockets offense. On the season the Huskies have produced just 21 total explosive plays of 20 yards or better. This isn’t an offense built on coming from behind. Toledo on the other hand have 41 explosive plays on the year. Defensively the Rockets have allowed just 3, 2 and 2 twenty yard gains the past three games. With the defense getting better and the offense in high gear we will lay the points with the host. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-31-17 | Bowling Green -2.5 v. Kent State | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
301 Bowling Green at Kent State The Falcons have owned this series as of late winning by margins of 35, 48, 10 and 19 points the past four seasons. While BG is just 2-5 SU vs FBS competition, this team has been very competitive when not stepping up in class. Kent State has the worst scoring offense in college football. Only twice did the Flashes reach double digits this year. Scoring 13 hosting Buffalo and 17 hosting Miami Ohio. Strictly looking at first half scoring Kent State has amassed 28 total points in 7 games. That’s an average of 4 points in the first half this season. What is even more astounding in that Kent has had 7 first half drives starting in opponent territory. Bowling Green can score and Kent has no answer, road favorite takes the cash here. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-28-17 | Georgia Southern +26 v. Troy | 16-38 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
183 Georgia Southern at Troy The Eagles just fired head coach Tyson Summers after being blown out at UMass last Saturday. The team is promoting Chad Lunsford who has been with the squad since 2003. This program has had a proud tradition in the FCS ranks and won 9 games each of its first two seasons in the FBS. Last year under Summers the team won only 5 games and this year is winless vs FBS competition. The move had to be made and we expect the best effort of the season for Georgia Southern. Troy is coming in off a blowout win at Georgia State, and has a Thursday contest with Idaho on deck. Keep in mind that Troy has really struggled against Georgia Southern, losing by margins of 4, 35 and 32 the past three years. Last year Troy was favored by a touchdown and lost outright. The Georgia Southern players know the success they have had in this matchup and should come into this game with a whole new positive outlook. This line is way too high in our opinion. PLAY GEORGIA SOUTHERN |
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10-28-17 | Florida International +17 v. Marshall | 41-30 | Win | 100 | 45 h 21 m | Show | |
133 Florida International at Marshall First year Panthers coach Butch Davis has his team coming off a bye, which enables his staff to put in more of the playbook. Like Florida Atlantic last week coming off a bye with a new coach, the Owls crushed North Texas. Both these teams recently played at Middle Tennessee State. The Panthers were an 8 point underdog while the Thundering Herd were a 1 1/2 point favorite. That would mean that on a neutral field Marshall is 9 1/2 points better. That would make the Herd 13 points better this week. But that’s not what we are finding. Marshall is now upwards of 17 in most places. Keep in mind the Herd has a Friday game against FAU on deck, while FIU is off a bye. Nice spot here for the dog along with a very generous line. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State +2 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 77 h 28 m | Show | |
106 South Alabama at Georgia State Not buying into the Jaguars as a road favorite here. Sure the team looked great two weeks ago on national tv in a 19-8 win over Troy. But that hasn’t been the way this team has played this season. Coming in at 2-4 SU vs FBS opponents, with losses to Idaho and Louisiana Tech. Georgia State comes into action on Thursday at 3-2 SU vs FBS opposition. But it just lost to Troy 34-10. So we are catching the Panthers off a bad performance, while the Jaguars are fat and sassy. The last three years this game has been decided by 3, 4 and 3 points. We will gladly take the home dog as we have Georgia State as a three point favorite here. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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10-21-17 | Wake Forest +6.5 v. Georgia Tech | 24-38 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 56 m | Show | |
351 Wake Forest at Georgia Tech The Demon Deacons are off a bye to help prepare for the Yellow Jackets option. Wake has had a very strong defense this year, allowing a season high 28 to Clemson the last time this team took the field. Wake has played a 32 spot tougher schedule thus far, and has a +7 explosive play advantage. That includes games against Florida State and Clemson. The Demon Deacons are on an 8-2 ATS run as a road underdog. Georgia Tech hasn’t been nearly as explosive offensively as in previous years. The Yellow Jackets are producing only 4 explosive plays per game, even overall on the season in explosives. Coming off a heartbreaking tough loss to Miami, we can see this team having trouble bouncing back here. Coming off a 9-4 season a year ago, the Jackets are just 2-2 SU this season vs FBS competition. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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10-21-17 | Buffalo +3 v. Miami-OH | 14-24 | Loss | -120 | 75 h 43 m | Show | |
325 Buffalo at Miami Ohio Despite losing to Northern Illinois 14-13 last week, the Bulls showed great heart being competitive after a 7 overtime game the week prior against Western Michigan. To be able to play a better team coming off that letdown spot says a lot about the kids under Lance Leipold. Buffalo has cashed all three road games this season and won outright the past two visits to Oxford. Buffalo has a +6 explosive play mark despite playing a schedule 26 spots tougher than that of the Redhawks. Miami is +4 in explosive plays on the season, and haven’t covered at home vs an FBS opponent this year. PLAY BUFFALO |
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10-21-17 | Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green +13 | 48-17 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 7 m | Show | |
332 Northern Illinois at Bowling Green The Huskies have played a tougher schedule by 16 spots over the Falcons, but it’s not nearly enough to justify this high line. Northern Illinois hasn’t surpassed 28 points in any FBS game this season. Tough to lay double digits on the road when you can put points on the board. In five FBS games the Huskies have just 14 explosive plays, one of the worst marks in college football. These clubs have split the past four meetings, even though NI won a total of 36 games in those four years. BG started slow last year under Mike Jinks, managing just a 4-8 record. While this year the Falcons are 2-4 in FBS games, the team is off back to back outright underdog wins over Ohio U and Miami Ohio. We said before the season that we would make money on this club in the later part of the year. It’s time to back the rising Falcons over an overrated Husky squad. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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10-21-17 | Pittsburgh +8 v. Duke | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 92 h 34 m | Show | |
345 Pittsburgh at Duke The Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 meetings including crushing the Blue Devils 56-14 a year ago. Pitt has played an almost identical schedule with just 3 spots separating the two. The explosive play advantage is just one for the underdog Panthers. Since allowing 14 explosive plays to Oklahoma State, Pitt has permitted just 17 combined to last four contests. This team is 7-4 ATS as a road dog under Pat Narduzzi, and we take advantage of a line that is at least 3 points too high here. Duke started the year winning against Northwestern, Baylor and North Carolina. But none of those teams are as good as you would have expected. Losses to Miami, Virginia and Florida State have followed. So Duke is looking more like we expected coming off a 4-8 season. We take the generous number here with the Panthers. PLAY PITTSBURGH |
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10-20-17 | Marshall v. Middle Tennessee State +3 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 2 m | Show | |
310 Marshall at Middle Tennessee State The Thundering Herd looks impressive coming into this game at 5-1 on the season. But a closer look shows this team to be way overrated. Keep in mind Marshall owns wins over Miami Ohio, Kent State, Cincinnati, Charlotte and Old Dominion. There is no team in the country that has faced such a weak schedule of FBS opponents. The Thundering Herd rank 109th in the country, and that’s only because others have faced FCS opponents. Despite such a weak schedule this team is only +6 on the season in explosive plays. Middle Tennessee is +15 in explosive plays this season, despite playing a much tougher schedule. Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Minnesota are better than all but one team, NC State, that the Herd has faced. With the visitor 3-0 in conference and the Blue Raiders sitting at 1-2 this is a must win for the host. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee has won 6 or more games the last five years in CUSA. The Blue Raiders are also looking to avenge a 42-17 loss from last year, as an 8 1/2 point favorite. PLAY MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE |
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10-14-17 | Tulane v. Florida International OVER 51 | 10-23 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
145 Tulane at Florida International In games when Tulane is not facing fellow option teams the points have been plenty. 70 points vs Oklahoma and 90 last week against Tulsa. This total is much too low for an offense that is starting to hit its stride. Florida International looked good against Rice, holding the Owls to just 9 points. But other than that it has yielded 61 to UCF, 29 to Charlotte and 37 to Middle Tennessee State. This is the first option team these Panthers seniors have faced. Lots a points scored here. PLAY OVER |
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10-14-17 | Charlotte +16.5 v. Western Kentucky | 14-45 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
163 Charlotte at Western Kentucky This is strictly a play against Western Kentucky, a team averaging just 19.3 points per game, laying almost that here. The only decent defense this team played was Illinois. Scoring only 70 combined points against Louisiana Tech, Ball State and UTEP simply won’t get it done in a favorites role. Other than the 55 the 49ers allowed to a physical Kansas State team, this defense has been fine. Allowing 24 to Eastern Michigan, 28 to Georgia State, 30 to FIU and 14 to Marshall. When Charlotte drops down in class it’s a team we want to look at, especially against a Hilltoppers squad that hasn’t won by this margin all season. |
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10-14-17 | Navy +3 v. Memphis | 27-30 | Push | 0 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
193 Navy at Memphis The Midshipmen have beaten Memphis each of the last two seasons and are 27-14 ats as an underdog the past decade. The Tigers are 0-3 the past three seasons against option squads. The Tigers also have a trip to Houston on Thursday. So its likely the preparation for the option won’t be all the Tigers are looking at this week in practice. PLAY NAVY |
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10-07-17 | California +27.5 v. Washington | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 47 m | Show |
375 California at Washington The last time the Bears traveled to Seattle it came away with a 30-24 victory. While we aren’t calling for the outright win, a cover is easily in its site. We’ve been very impressed with this Golden Bears defense which has allowed just 9 explosive plays in four BFS contests. That includes Oregon, USC and an SEC squad in Mississippi. Justin Wilcox has this team pointed in the right direction off a 5-7 season a year ago under Sonny Dykes. Washington has feasted on bad or rebuilding teams so far. Rutgers, Fresno State, Colorado and Oregon State won’t scare many. Now fat and happen these Huskies will be severely tested for the first time this season. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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10-07-17 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska +11 | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 5 m | Show | |
404 Wisconsin at Nebraska The Badgers have played one of the easiest schedules in the country. Utah State, Florida Atlantic, BYU and Northwestern. This team was tied at the half vs the Aggies, failed to cover by 18 1/2 against the the Owls. BYU has yet to win a game and the Wildcats gave Wisky all it could handle last week as a double digit dog. Nebraska has had a terrific defense since halftime adjustments in the Oregon game. Shutting out the Ducks in the second half, Allowing 21 to Northern Illinois, 17 to Rutgers and 3 to Illinois. While none of those three can be considered strong offensively, Nebraska permitted just one combined explosive play the last three games! In fact, Oregon is the only team that has gotten more than two 20 yard gains against this defense all season. The Cornhuskers held Wisconsin to 23 points each of the last two years. Tough to lay double digits when you don’t reach the end zone on a regular basis. PLAY NEBRASKA |
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10-07-17 | Georgia State v. Costal Carolina +2 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 8 m | Show | |
330 Georgia State at Coastal Carolina Panthers have only played two FBS squads this season, losing at Penn State 56-0 and winning at Charlotte 28-0. This is an unknown role for Shawn Elliott and company as Georgia State hasn’t been installed as a road favorite since joining the FBS in 2013. The Panthers have played the 126th strongest schedule and are minus 8 in explosive plays. Coastal Carolina on the other hand has played virtually the same schedule strength at 128th, and are plus 2 in explosive plays. Games against Massachusetts, UAB and ULM resulted in a 1-2 record SU & ATS. While this is the first year for the Chanticleers in FBS, we like the job Joe Moglia has done in Conway. Wrong team favored. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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10-07-17 | Central Michigan +11 v. Ohio | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
319 Central Michigan at Ohio U The Chippewas have beaten the Bobcats the past three meetings. The team is 6-3 ATS lately as a road underdog. Despite playing three FBS teams outside the MAC the Chippewas have held their own with a 20 to 17 explosive play advantage. In 3 of 4 games Central Michigan had a better yards per play advantage in the first half. Ohio U is off three straight lesser opponents, Massachusetts, Eastern Michigan and Kansas. We aren’t giving them too much credit for that, especially because the Eastern Michigan win came in overtime. Too many points here as we graded this line out at 7 1/2. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN |
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10-07-17 | Tulsa v. Tulane OVER 54.5 | 28-62 | Win | 100 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
361 Tulsa at Tulane The last three years have seen point totals of 77, 79 and 79 points including overtime. While this isn’t the same Tulsa offense of the last two years, the Golden Hurricane can move the ball on the Green Wave. This is the third straight option attack Tulsa has faced. Which is normally a good thing. But when you haven’t proven the ability to stop it, it only gets worse for this defense. Playing the option and cut blocks is a physical way to play. Now this team has to go through it for the third straight week. Tulane is fresh and off a buy after facing the option of Army. While the offense has only scored 21, 14 and 21 the past three games, keep in mind the opposition. One game was against heavyweight Oklahoma, the other two against Army and Navy. When two option teams go head to the head the scoring is stifled. This total is just too low for clubs that should have distinct offensive advantages. PLAY OVER |
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09-30-17 | Akron v. Bowling Green +3 | Top | 34-23 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 31 m | Show |
130 Akron at Bowling Green What the hell have the Zips done to be installed as a road favorite against a team it hasn’t beaten since 2006? BG has won this series by margins of 10, 49, 17, 17, 14, 16, 4 and 24 points covering the last decade. In its first three FBS games this season Akron has been outscored 35-0, 41-14 and 22-17. The Zips are 2-7-1 ATS as a road favorite under Terry Bowden. Bowling Green has played three games vs FBS competition, all on the road. And as expected were beaten soundly in all three matchups as double digit dogs. But now this team returns home for the first time all year against an FBS opponent. This is the second year in the program for Mike Jinks. In his first season in BG, in conference action the Falcons averaged 29.6 ppg while permitting 29.9 ppg. Bowling Green brings a three game MAC winning streak into this contest. We expect that to be extended. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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09-30-17 | Georgia v. Tennessee +8.5 | 41-0 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
180 Georgia at Tennessee The way the pros win consistently in sports betting is to buy low and sell high. That’s exactly what we have here in this contest. Georgia is off a 31-3 blowout over Mississippi State. And are now being praised as the up and coming national contender. Don’t get us wrong, we really like this Georgia team, but keep in mind the Bulldogs have lost to the Volunteers each of the last two seasons. In fact, the last six meetings have all been decided by eight points or less. While Georgia is being praised, the Volunteers are being jeered. That will happen when you can’t distance yourselves from Massachusetts at home. But keep in mind the sandwich situation Tennessee was in. Off a last second hail mary loss to Florida, with rival Georgia on deck. Tennessee has a bye next week while Georgia plays its third straight SEC contest when it travels to Vanderbilt. This line is three points too high based on what happened a week ago. PLAY TENNESSEE |
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09-30-17 | New Mexico State +17 v. Arkansas | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
171 New Mexico State at Arkansas The Aggies are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season and none of it has been a fluke. NMSt has equalled or beaten every opponent in explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This is a team that has 25 explosive plays in its first four games. What we want out of a live underdog. Arkansas had an extra week to prepare for A&M last week and lost in overtime 50-43. Now it takes on a non-conference opponent before facing South Carolina and Alabama. Can’t trust the Razorbacks at all in this situation. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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09-23-17 | UTSA v. Texas State +14 | Top | 44-14 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 46 m | Show |
390 UTSA at Texas State The last three plus seasons the Roadrunners are 6-14 straight up on the road. They are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite and 1-4 ATS as a double digit favorite regardless of location. Too much is being made of the 17-10 win earlier at Baylor, a team completely changing systems. We’ve been very impressed by Texas State despite losses to Colorado and Appalachian State. The Bobcats have only lost the explosive play battle 9 to 8. In first half action they have been outscored just 21-10. When looking at first half yards per play it lost to Colorado on the road 4.7 to 4.1, while outgaining App State 5.2 to 3.6. While this team entered the season as a bottom feeder in a lot of power ratings, the Bobcats have looked like a team on the rise. Keep in mind this team won as a 20 1/2 point underdog at Ohio U in the opener last year before injuries took a major toll. Nice value here with the home dog. PLAY TEXAS STATE |
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09-23-17 | San Diego State -3 v. Air Force | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show |
391 San Diego State at Air Force How many points is it worth in the line after winning back to back games against two PAC12 opponents? Certainly not as much as the current betting numbers would have you believe. Under Rocky Long the Aztecs have held Air Force to point totals of 24, 14, 20, 9, 27 and 25 points in his seven seasons at San Diego State. That’s 19.8 ppg under one of our favorite coaches. During those seven seasons Air Force averaged 30.5 points per game on the season, more than 10 points per game more than what it averaged against San Diego State. With both teams off physical Big Five teams, we will side with the simply better squad in a low priced contest. The Aztecs have won outright the past six meetings. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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09-23-17 | Nevada +28 v. Washington State | 7-45 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
405 Nevada at Washington State The Cougars enter this game undefeated, but we have not been impressed. This is the fourth straight home game for Washington State and it hosts USC next Friday Night. This is surely a lookahead situation for the Cougars. In lined games against Boise State and Oregon State the Cougs outscored them at the half by a combined margin of 38-19. But a closer look shows that Wazzou had four first half drives start in opponent territory. The opposition on the other hand had none, with starting field position of the Boise State 20 and the Oregon State 22. Nevada faced two clubs likely going bowling this year in Northwestern and Toledo. It is also off an embarrassing loss to FCS entrant Idaho State last week. The Wolf Pack are 7-4 ATS as a road dog the past 2+ seasons. Keep in mind the halftime scores against the two Big 5 opponents, 27-27. That’s despite allowing a combined five drives starting in its own territory, with none starting in opposition territory for the offense. So they permitted just 27 first half points even thought five opponent drives started in its territory. This is a team that is below the national radar and we take full advantage. PLAY NEVADA |
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09-23-17 | Old Dominion +28.5 v. Virginia Tech | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 10 m | Show | |
341 Old Dominion at Virginia Tech The Monarchs were highly thought of coming into the season off a 10-3 mark a season ago. But now after losing at home to North Carolina by 30 points last week, people are falling over themselves to bet against them. But coach Bobby Wilder pulled Blake LaRussa after falling behind, for a left-handed freshman quarterback. And after the change Old Dominion played much better ball. Now the freshman gets the start against a Bud Foster defense, not an easy task. But this line move gives us plenty of wiggle room for the Monarchs to bounce back. Old Dominion has a bye next week so after an embarrassing home loss we know this team will have full attention this week in practice. Virginia Tech is 2-0 against FBS competition but in both games the team really struggled out of the gate. In the first half against West Virginia the Hokies were outgained 5.0 to 4.7 yards per play and held a 10-7 halftime lead. At East Carolina last week VT had to score a late TD to claim a 23-17 halftime advantage. Keep in mind the Hokies at that point were outgained 6.9 to 5.4 ypp as a 27 point favorite! We are going to take the big dog here as Virginia Tech has a huge lookahead game with National Champion Clemson on deck. After a 47 point blowout victory it’s going to be hard to motivate this club for the Monarchs. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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09-16-17 | Cincinnati +5.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
123 Cincinnati at Miami Ohio This is a major rivalry game that most people don’t know about. Xavier, Miami and Cincinnati are all close to each other and take special pride in knocking off its neighbors. Here we find a Cincinnati team catching points for the first time in over a decade in this rivalry. Not only are they an underdog for the first time since 2005, the Bearcats have been significant favorites. Starting last year and going backward Cincinnati has been favored by 16, 20, 28.5, 24, 20.5, 15.5, 17, 28.5, 12, 7 and 11 points. That’s an average of over 18 points per game the past 11 seasons. Cincinnati played pretty well at Michigan last week with the spread never in doubt. The Bearcats are down by prior standards but this overlay is way too large. Based on the current line we are looking at a 21 or more point adjustment in one season, way too high. Keep in mind that Miami at the half against Marshall had a turnover advantage and still was outscored 21-13. The Redhawks were outgained 5.1 to 4.0 ypp at the half in a game it lost 31-26. We like this Miami team but this is rare territory for Chuck Martin’s club. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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09-16-17 | Georgia State +37.5 v. Penn State | Top | 0-56 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
125 Georgia State at Penn State The Panthers haven’t played a game since taking on Tennessee State on August 31st. That gives them plenty of time to try to keep this Penn State team under control. Since joining the FBS the Panthers are 11-3 ATS as an underdog of 20 points or more, 21-10 ATS catching double digits. Last year against a fellow Big 10 team the Panthers caught 34 1/2 at Wisconsin and only lost by 6. Penn State had last weeks contest against Pittsburgh circled, as the team felt losing to the Panthers last year cost them a chance to play in the final four. With that game having so much emotion in a rivalry contest along with the Big 10 season starting next week at Iowa, we can see the Nittany Lions going through the motions here. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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09-16-17 | Kentucky +7 v. South Carolina | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
111 Kentucky at South Carolina The Wildcats beat South Carolina each of the last three seasons, twice in the underdog role. When digging deep into the early season stats we feel Kentucky will take this one to the wire. South Carolina enters the game 2-0 on the season, but have been very fortunate. In analyzing first half stats. They have had two drives start in opponent territory, while making the opposition go the full distance on the field. The Gamecocks won the first half turnover battle in both games. South Carolina was outgained 7.0 to 5.6 against NC State and 6.3 to 4.6 against Missouri. In full game stats South Carolina has permitted 10 explosive plays while only producing 7 themselves. The Gamecocks have been very fortunate and that ends on Saturday. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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09-16-17 | Oregon v. Wyoming +14.5 | 49-13 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
186 Oregon at Wyoming The Ducks and Willie Taggart take to the road for the first time under his watch. When the Southpoint sports book in Las Vegas opened this game of the year line it was Oregon -1. While every sharp I know took advantage of that number, it’s now time to look at the homesteading Cowboys as the line has simply risen too far. Oregon looked really good in the first half against Nebraska last week but was shutout after halftime. The concern we have about the Ducks isn’t the scoring ability, but the lack of defense. Nebraska put up 35 last week to continue a recent poor trend. When looking at Oregon road games as of late the Ducks have permitted 34, 28, 45, 52, 51, 35, 36 and 55 points. That’s an average of 42 points permitted over the last eight road games. Now Oregon must travel to Laramie to take on a Wyoming team in altitude, with one of the top college quarterbacks in the nation. Wyoming was a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog under Craig Bowl last season. This is a team that scored 34, 52, 30, 35, 45 and 40 points in home regular season games last year. If there ever was a team with back door offensive potential it’s the Cowboys. Off a terrible showing against a very good defense in Iowa, we look for the Cowboys to ride the arm of Josh Allen to an easy pointspread victory here. PLAY WYOMING |
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09-16-17 | Purdue v. Missouri -7 | 35-3 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
156 Purdue at Missouri We love Jeff Brohm as a coach and he has the Boilermakers pointed in the right direction. But here the betting markets are putting the cart before the horse. When looking at first half stats, which are more telling that full game numbers, a clear picture can be drawn. Purdue outscored Louisville 14-10 and Ohio U 34-7. Impressive, until you give a deeper dive, especially in the Louisville game. In each game the Boilermakers had a plus 2 turnover advantage. Combined Purdue had 3 drives start in opponent territory, while only allowing a single short field for the opposition. In that first half against the Cardinals Purdue was outgained 6.7 to 5.1 yards per play. It also lost the full game explosive play numbers 7 to 2. We couldn’t understand the Ohio U love in the other contest as we had Purdue favored by 5 1/2. Ohio is just a slightly better than average MAC squad. The Missouri home loss to South Carolina last week was a game we can make money on, because the final score wasn’t representative of the way the game was played. Missouri beat South Carolina in explosive plays 6 to 4. In looking at first half numbers the Tigers lost the turnover battle and the Gamecocks had a drive start at the Missouri 25. In truth Missouri outgained the Cocks 6.3 to 4.6 ypp. We lined this contest a full touchdown higher than the betting markets. PLAY MISSOURI |
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09-16-17 | Wisconsin v. BYU +17 | 40-6 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
154 Wisconsin at BYU The Badgers are making a rare trip out west, the first in over three years for Wisconsin. It will also be in altitude where Wisconsin never plays. When looking at first half stats against Utah State and Florida Atlantic, the Badgers have not been impressive. Against the Aggies the game was tied at the half and Wisconsin was outgained 3.9 to 3.0 ypp. Against Florida Atlantic the Badgers led by 10 at the break outgaining the opposition by just 1.8 yards per play. Wisconsin simply wore down the opposition in the second half, not likely having that advantage in altitude against an older and stronger BYU defense. The Cougars have been bad offensively but a change is being made at quarterback. The defense for BYU has been solid, allowing 46 combined points thus far in two FBS contests. With the total the lowest on the board it’s a prime opportunity to buy low on the Cougars. PLAY BYU |
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09-16-17 | Baylor +15 v. Duke | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
141 Baylor at Duke Sometimes you just have to hold your nose and bet a game knowing that you are getting the best of the number. That’s the case here with a Baylor team who has disappointed the masses the first two weeks of the season. We like the hiring of Matt Rhule and we didn’t expect this program to turn the corner overnight, but this has turned into a must win game for the Bears. Starting the season 0-2 and with Oklahoma, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas on the horizon. A loss here and the season could be a complete washout in no time. Duke looked outstanding last week against Northwestern, but keep in mind the Wildcats have really underperformed in the early going. This is a Duke team that was rated virtually even with Baylor two weeks ago, and now are laying two touchdowns to the Bears. Duke hasn’t been a two touchdown favorite over a power five team the past two seasons. The Blue Devils also have hated rival North Carolina on deck. If Baylor plays up to its ability it wouldn’t surprise to see the Bears win this outright, but we feel much safer taking the inflated number. PLAY BAYLOR |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State -14.5 | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 56 m | Show | |
104 New Mexico at Boise State Much of what we do involves first half stats, when both teams are trying to win the game. As opposed to the later stages of contests when many times teams are just running the ball to kill the clock, or throwing the ball in order to make a big comeback. We have found that the first half stats are more indicative of how the teams play. Against two good football teams in Troy and Washington State the Broncos have outscored the opposition 27-10 at the half. In yards per play it was 5.7 to 3.3 against Troy and 5.2 to 4.9 against the Cougars. Those 20 total points allowed included two drives which started in Boise State territory. New Mexico on the other hand played an FCS team in which we don’t chart, as well as a home game last week against rival New Mexico State. The Lobos as a 7 1/2 point favorite lost that game 30-28. But a closer look at the first half numbers really should have Lobo fans concerned. New Mexico was outgained 7.9 to 4.0 and trailed at halftime 23-5. Home teams on Thursdays have a nice scheduling advantage as the Lobos have to travel on a short week. We also like the fact that Boise State blew that game last week in overtime. So while Washington State was celebrating the victory, Boise State can’t wait to get back on the field. The Broncos won this matchup last year 49-21, a similar result here wouldn’t surprise. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-09-17 | Western Michigan +7.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
309 Western Michigan at Michigan State The Spartans were very good to us last week against Bowling Green. Running our three year MAC record to 12-2 with the cover. But this week we go against a Michigan State team that is overpriced in this matchup. Being a directional school in Michigan means the Broncos take special pride when playing instate competition. Thus they are 4-1 ATS the past three plus years when facing fellow Michiganders. Western Michigan is also in its best role of road underdog. Under PJ Fleck this team was 12-4 ATS in that role, and a perfect 1-0 under Tim Lester after the Broncos gave the Trojans of USC all it could handle last week. We talked about Michigan State last week being a team with something to prove off a terrible 3-9 season. They would not overlook Bowling Green and they certainly didn’t. This game is a different story. The next contest on the agenda is taking on rival Notre Dame, followed by Iowa and then instate rival Michigan. The Spartans are just 13-21 ATS as home favorites the past 5+ seasons. We look for the Broncos to take this one to the wire. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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09-02-17 | Vanderbilt -3 v. Middle Tennessee State | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
203 Vanderbilt at Middle Tennessee State The Commodores finished the regular season scoring 45 and 38 against Tennessee and Mississippi. While we are not buying in to the massive offensive improvement, we are willing to back a team with the much superior defense. The last two seasons Vandy allowed just 24 and 21 points per game playing an SEC schedule. It limited the Blue Raiders to 37 total points the past two years. Keep in mind Middle Tennessee State averaged 39.7 and 34 points overall the last two seasons. The Blue Raiders return six starters to a defense that permitted 35.8 ppg a season ago. Getting the SEC defense against a team that’s never been stout defensively, in a low priced game is the way to go. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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09-02-17 | Michigan v. Florida +5.5 | 33-17 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
202 Michigan and Florida in Arlington, TX The Wolverines bring back just five starters from a year ago, and while Wilton Speight returns behind center we’ve never been overwhelmed by his ability. The defense has been decimated by graduation and as good as this coaching staff is, it will take some time to get up to speed. We simply love Jim McElwain and the job he has done at Colorado State and at Florida. Now in his third season his recruits should be ready to shine. The team suspended eight players for this opener, including the best wideout on the squad. But in all honesty we want to back a team willing to put standards ahead of winning. The rest of the team buys in and a more cohesive effort is to be expected. The additional advantage is that the general public will go against the team with suspensions and give us line value. In what is expected to be a low scoring game we will gladly take the points with what we grade out as the better team. PLAY FLORIDA |
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09-02-17 | California +13 v. North Carolina | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
177 California at North Carolina Two teams with plenty of offseason changes meet up in this one. Cal has a new coach in Justin Wilcox who has made his name on the defensive side of the ball. The team also has a new QB as Davis Webb has graduated. But the team returns 14 starters and gets to take advantage of a Tar Heels team losing even more than they have. North Carolina is losing 7 of its top 8 skill position players from a year ago. That includes the first quarterback taken in the draft, Mitch Trubisky. The team that averaged 32.3 and 40.7 ppg a year ago will have a long way to go to get that type of production again. While the early start time would be a concern during the regular season, this being the first game gives the Bears plenty of time to get acclimated. Just too many points to give with a whole new offensive skill set. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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09-02-17 | Bowling Green v. Michigan State -17 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
154 Bowling Green at Michigan State Let’s start this analysis off with the Bowling Green Falcons. After a four win season for Mike Jinks, the program should be back on track now as he starts to play some of his young recruits. The offense will be better as the season goes along. But we want no part of the Falcons here against a Michigan State team coming off its worst season in quite a long time. The Spartans won an average of 10.83 games a season the prior six years before dropping to an unheard of 3-9 record a season ago. Mark Dantonio has a career 108-59 record, and he didn’t forget how to coach overnight. The Spartans start the year with two MAC foes in BG and Western Michigan, along with a bye before facing Notre Dame. He will use the first two games to regain the confidence of his troops after that disastrous season. A motivated bully in week one is what we want to back. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE |
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09-01-17 | Washington v. Rutgers +27.5 | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
144 Washington at Rutgers The Huskies are a popular team that played in the final four a year ago. The offense brings back virtually everyone, while the defense took big hits to the secondary. Washington snuck up on the opposition a year ago, that’s not the case this year. Therefore the numbers on the Huskies are sure to be inflated entering this season, and this game itself has taken money on the dog since the opener. Rutgers has been downright terrible as of late but in his second season Chris Ash finally has some depth to work with. While the offense will never be considered a strength, the defense should be much better than a year ago. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Scarlet Knights double its wins from last year. Long trip from coast to coast for the Huskies and the team has nothing to prove until getting into conference action. This is a bigger game for the host and the line is about 5 points too high. PLAY RUTGERS |
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09-01-17 | Navy v. Florida Atlantic +10 | 42-19 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
146 Navy at Florida Atlantic The Midshipmen have won eight or more games 9 of the last 10 years. This is a program that gets the best out of its players just as you would expect. But the Navy offense is one that gets better as the year unfolds. Keep this in mind, in the first three games against FBS competition the last five seasons, Navy averaged just 23 points per game. Over the entire course of those years Navy averaged 37.9, 36.8, 31.8, 33.5 and 25.0 points per game. It’s a timing offense that’s just not ready to fly early on in the season. The Owls made a controversial hire in the offseason as Lane Kiffin comes in after a highly publicized stint at Alabama. The offense should be better and the defense can’t get any worse. But in reality the team does have a coach that will bring in quality recruits and put people in the stands. Something uncommon in these parts. Based on the way Navy takes time to gel this line is simply too high to trust the Midshipmen. The Owls are on the rise and we get them here in what is a key game for Kiffin and the Florida Atlantic program. PLAY FLORIDA ATLANTIC |
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08-31-17 | Florida International +17 v. Central Florida | 17-61 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
169 Florida International at Central Florida After leaving college football at the end of the 2010 season Butch Davis is returning to lead the Panthers who have 15 starters back. After having coached at Miami and North Carolina as well as the Browns in the NFL, this veteran should have his team well prepared out of the gate. Scott Frost is in his second year in Orlando and the Knights have high hopes for this season. But after taking his club from zero to six wins a year ago regression is in order. UCF was just 2-3 SU at home last year against FBS competition. These clubs met each of the last two years with the road team not only covering but winning outright. We bet this game at +21 when the Southpoint in Las Vegas posted world openers a couple months ago. Our number on this game is only 12 1/2 so plenty of value remains after the wise guys dropped this to the current line. PLAY FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL |
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08-26-17 | South Florida v. San Jose State +22 | 42-22 | Win | 100 | 54 h 54 m | Show | |
296 South Florida at San Jose State Both teams have new head coaches this year and interestingly enough they both came from the same program at Texas. Charlie Strong outlived his welcome with the Longhorn faithful and receivers coach Andrew Sowder was hired at San Jose State. That in itself give the Spartans a familiarity edge here as Sowder knows exactly the type of plays the Bulls will try to run under Strong. Willie Taggart took the Bulls from 2 wins in 2013 to 11 last season and he was lured away in the offseason by Oregon. The Bulls played a quick pace last year and found success, but the defense in turn suffered from the offense getting in and off the field quickly. Strong will be doing the same thing with the Bulls here which means lots of plays and high scoring games. South Florida hasn’t traveled further than Texas the past four seasons. With both teams looking to increase the pace your power ratings need to be adjusted here. That said the current line is still radically inflated from what myself and many of my colleagues have this game set at. A defense cannot be trusted to hold leads after ranking 120th last year, when the personnel isn’t any better in Tampa. We will take the points with a San Jose State team that everyone is overlooking. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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01-09-17 | Clemson v. Alabama -6.5 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
152 Clemson & Alabama in Tampa We played Clemson in this game last year and walked away with the cash. But we’ve watched every Tigers game this year and this team isn’t as strong as a year ago. The defense remains solid but the offense has been very inconsistent. The line advantage that the Tigers had over Ohio State will not be repeated here as Clemson and Alabama have the two best combined offensive and defensive lines in college football. On the season Clemson is 1-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while Alabama is 4-1 ATS. That’s a sizable edge for the Tide in a game where turnovers will determine the winner. Going in to last week the consensus line on this game was anywhere from 9 to 11. Based on Clemson playing its best game of the season this line has dropped about three points. The line value is on the favorite and we will lay the points with the Tide. PLAY ALABAMA |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | Top | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
280 USC & Penn State Both teams finished the regular season as two of the hottest teams in the nation. Both as we often see that hot streak no longer exists this far between games. It happens all the time in the NFL with a bye week, so you can imagine what happens in a January Bowl Game. USC played Stanford, Utah, Colorado and Washington this year. None of those teams in the PAC12 covered the number in its bowl game. We have these two clubs rated about as close as two bowl teams could be, with Southern Cal gaining a small home edge because of the location. In the key numbers we use we have the following: In season long explosive plays Penn State has the edge 3.0 per game to 1.6. In the last four regular season games Penn State is also ahead 17-5. When comparing the teams spread records when losing the turnover battle USC is 3-2 and Penn State is 2-2. When losing the sack battle Penn State is 0-1 ATS and USC comes in at 1-2. So as you can see these two clubs are almost identical in our power ratings. With the Nittany Lions knowing it can finish the season ranked #3 with the losses of Washington, Michigan and Ohio State. We will take the generous points with Penn State. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
265 Florida State & Michigan at Miami We had Florida State ranked second in the country in our preseason power ratings. We were asking too much from this team with a freshman starter. After being blown out by upstart Louisville the Seminoles were put on the back burner by many. But as the season transpired the Seminoles started to get noticed again in the betting markets, finishing the regular season cashing 4 of 5. Michigan has a solid defense but played one of the weakest offense opponent slates in the country. This will be the best offensive unit the Wolverines have faced all year. And we worry about this Michigan offense who put up big numbers against weak opposition. The best defenses it faced were Wisconsin, Iowa and Ohio State. In those three games the Wolverines tallied 54 points and that included two overtimes against Ohio State. This one comes down to the wire and we will side with the better skill players of Florida State. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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12-30-16 | TCU -3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
257 TCU & Georgia in Memphis Much prefer the Horned Frogs here who are 30-21-2 ATS when Gary Patterson has extra time to prepare. This is a team that took a great deal of money in the Game of the Year lines down at the Golden Nugget Sportsbook. It was the most bet on team by the wise guys with a maximum bet of $1,000. Unfortunately this team underperformed all season with a 3-8 ATS mark against FBS opposition. The other two teams with three or less covers were Baylor and Southern Miss, both spread covering teams in the bowl season. With time to reflect on this disappointing season we expect the Horned Frogs to come to play on Friday. Georgia can’t be too excited for this bowl draw after back to back ten win seasons. Kirby Smart has a quality defense in his first season in Athens, but the offense is lacking. There than Alabama the rest of the SEC was really down this year. We’ve already seen Mississippi State struggle with a middling MAC team, and Vanderbilt, Texas A&M and South Carolina lose outright. The line moved towards the Horned Frogs late, and we agree with the move. PLAY TCU |
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12-29-16 | South Florida v. South Carolina +10.5 | Top | 46-39 | Win | 100 | 3 h 49 m | Show |
252 South Florida & South Carolina at Birmingham Willie Taggart is off to Oregon with his top assistants, Charlie Strong will not be involved in this game. Therefore you have a sizable favorite here with an inexperienced coaching staff. South Carolina is a sizable SEC underdog, something rarely seen. It also owns the far better defensive unit. We like the job Will Muschamp has done here and this bowl game is a nice reward for a team expected to finish in last place in its division. Take the generous points with the Gamecocks. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
240 Washington State & Minnesota This line has risen based on the suspension of 10 Golden Gophers, two of them starters. Our line with the full lineups would have been Washington State -4. Therefore we are getting six extra points for a team playing with purpose. We always like to play on teams with suspensions as it galvanizes the squad. We will take the generous points here with a quality defensive unit. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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12-26-16 | Vanderbilt +6 v. NC State | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 19 m | Show | |
233 Vanderbilt & NC State The Vandy defense has been solid all year but the offense has really come on as of late. It all started in the loss to Missouri where turnovers and key penalties really hurt the volunteers. Because of an early deficit Vanderbilt had to open up the offense, and the results were terrific. State has played well when stepping up in class but has been disappointing otherwise. The money is coming in on the Wolf Pack but we prefer the SEC underdog. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College +2.5 | 30-36 | Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show | |
232 Maryland & Boston College Much prefer the best unit on the field on Sunday which is the BC defense. While the offense isn’t anything to write home about the defense has been strong against middling competition. Maryland has been very inconsistent all season and in our ratings should not be favored here. In a matchup of two mediocre teams we will take the far superior stop unit. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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12-23-16 | Ohio +4.5 v. Troy | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
225 Ohio U & Troy at Mobile We’ve had a nice bead on the Bobcats this year and feel Ohio U is the right side in this Dollar General Bowl. Playing a tougher schedule Ohio U is 1.3 explosive plays per game over Troy on the season. Over the past four games Ohio U is +12 in explosive plays over the Trojans. Both teams match up well along the lines and take care of the ball equally well. The Bobcats are 3-1 ATS the past 5 years in bowl games including a 31-29 loss as a 7 point underdog to a similar Appalachian State Sun Belt team a year ago. PLAY OHIO U |
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12-23-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
222 Eastern Michigan & Old Dominion at Nassau Not surprised by Old Dominion money coming in as of late as we made this line 5 points higher than the opener. Eastern Michigan won 7 total games the past four seasons, and have really improved this year under Chris Creighton. While web really like this team and have made quality money on them this season, Old Dominion has major edges. The Monarchs take care of the ball much better, only losing the turnover battle once all season. Old Dominion also only lost the sack battle once, all the way back on September 17th against NC State. We prefer the favorite here in what should be a double digit straight up victory. PLAY OLD DOMINION |
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12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho +15.5 | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
220 Colorado State & Idaho in Boise The problem with bowl season is similar to having a bye during the regular season. Teams that are red hot like Colorado State are thrown out of rhythm, which is why betting on streaking teams doesn’t work. Colorado State has run off seven straight covers to end the regular season, but a closer look at its straight up wins makes us question this high line. Victories over UTSA, Utah State, UNLV, Fresno State and New Mexico are not overly impressive. The win against San Diego State was in a sandwich game for the Aztecs who just played Wyoming and had the Cowboys rematch for the conference title on deck. While Colorado State is good, this line has simply gotten out of control. Idaho is playing its last game as an FBS school and this marks the first bowl game for the Vandals since 2009, a 43-42 win over Bowling Green in the Humanitarian Bowl. Eleven years earlier Idaho also won it’s previous bowl game 42-35 over Southern Miss. This team wants nothing better than to add another bowl victory to its FBS history. Idaho has shown a great deal of heart this year going 2-2 ATS when losing the turnover battle. It’s also covered seven straight heading into this contest, but not as highly hyped as the Rams. This should be a battle. PLAY IDAHO |
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12-17-16 | Southern Miss v. UL-Lafayette +4.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 51 m | Show |
New Orleans Bowl 212 Southern Miss & UL Lafayette in New Orleans The Golden Eagles won 4 total games from 2012-2014, but bounced back with a solid 9-5 record last year. So the team entered the 2016 season with high hopes. After beating Kentucky on the road in the season opener things looked great for first year coach Jay Hopson. But the only FBS victories since then came against UTEP, Rice, Marshall and Louisiana Tech. Three very bad teams an a Bulldogs team that was looking past Southern Miss to the CUSA Championship the following week against Western Kentucky. QB Nick Mullens is reportedly healthy, which is a positive. But that’s the only thing going in the Golden Eagles favor here. The team has struggled along the lines the latter part of the year, and is a negative 15 turnovers on the season. The Ragin’ Cajuns have played in the New Orleans Bowl in 4 of the last 5 seasons. ULL is 4-0 straight up and against the spread in those games. While this isn’t a true home game for Lafayette it’s a game the team shoots for every season. One major reason we like the Ragin’ Cajuns chances here are how these two teams perform when losing the turnover battle. When you are able to cover a game despite losing the turnover battle it tells us the true heart of a team. ULL was a perfect 4-0 ATS in that department this season, the best in the FBS, just ahead of Alabama at 4-1. Southern Miss on the other hand was 0-7 ATS when losing the turnover battle. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State +4 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 95 h 28 m | Show |
Las Vegas Bowl 204 Houston & San Diego State in Las Vegas Houston will be without coach Tom Herman as he has moved on to Texas. The offensive coordinator has been named new head coach, so the team does know who it will be playing for next season. While the move is a positive for the players, we can’t help but see this bowl as a disappointment for the team. This was a club expecting to play in a much more prestigious bowl, and we expect the players to treat this as more of a vacation spot than a proving ground. Houston has been very inconsistent all season in turnovers and along the lines. The +10 sack margin against Louisville was unbelievable, but other than that game the Cougars were -6 on the season in sacks. In 4 of the last 5 games of the season this team averaged less than 4.7 yards per play. San Diego State is very familiar with this location playing in Vegas every other year. The game will take precedence over the festivities for the Aztecs. San Diego State rarely turns the ball over and is formidable along the lines. Donnel Pumphrey is going for the all-time rushing record so the offensive line will be extra motivated. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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12-17-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. New Mexico -6.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 9 m | Show |
New Mexico Bowl 202 UTSA at New Mexico Tough draw in the first bowl game for the Roadrunners. Not only does UTSA have a first year coach in Frank Wilson, but the team is playing on the New Mexico home field. UTSA has had terrible line play all season posting a -21 net sack number in FBS games. In fact, it had just one positive sack game on the season. New Mexico is a team that will run the ball down your throat and gets stronger as the game progresses. On the season the Lobos have a +14 sack margin, which has been even better as of late. In the last seven games New Mexico has dominated in the trenches with a +14 sack margin. Twice this season the Lobos reached double digits in yards per play, 10.0 vs ULM and 13.5 against Wyoming. UTSA is in for a very physical contest. PLAY NEW MEXICO |
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12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 57 h 35 m | Show |
333 Penn State & Wisconsin in Indianapolis Much prefer the red hot Nittany Lions here who have produced an outstanding 3.0 explosive plays per game average, as opposed to Wisconsin’s +1.2 per game advantage. Over the last month Penn State has outperformed the Badgers by 14 explosive plays. Penn State struggled in the trenches through the opening month of the season with a negative two sack margin. Since that time Penn State has a + 15 margin in sacks. Better line play is one of the reasons why this team has put up scoring numbers of 45, 39, 45, 41 and 62 points down the stretch. Wisconsin has relied on forcing turnovers the second half of the season, with a +11 margin the past four games. In those four games the yards per play numbers for the Badgers were not overly impressive. Despite playing the likes of Minnesota, Purdue, Illinois and Northwestern, the ypp numbers were 0.7, 0.3, 1.4 and minus 0.3. Penn State is a strong 2-2 ATS on the season when losing the turnover battle. Wisconsin better rely on more than turnovers to win this Big10 Championship. PLAY PENN STATE |
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12-03-16 | Georgia State +6 v. Idaho | 12-37 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 40 m | Show | |
321 Georgia State at Idaho The line is dropping as we write this and we agree with the movement. On the course of the season Georgia State is +0.7 explosive plays per game while Idaho is -1.9 per contest. Over the past four games the Panthers have a +7 explosive play edge. Georgia State has an extra week to prepare after a home win over Georgia Southern. In fact, this team hasn’t had to leave Atlanta since October 29th at South Alabama. The Panthers are fresh which isn’t the case very often this time of year. Idaho is off a 38-31 victory over South Alabama. The Vandals are riding a rare three game winning streak. After winning 4, 1, 1, 1 and 2 games the past five seasons, Paul Petrine seems to have Idaho on an uptick. The problem is that the Vandals are 3-7 in yards per play analysis this year, and this team isn’t used to expectations. This is only the 10th game since 2011 the Vandals have been favored against an FBS opponent. We will take the points with the Panthers as this one goes down to the wire. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Oklahoma State +11 v. Oklahoma | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -106 | 49 h 20 m | Show |
317 Oklahoma State at Oklahoma These two teams are much closer in talent than this current line is showing. On the season the Sooners have a +1.9 explosive play advantage, while the Cowboys sit at +1.5. Over the last four games Oklahoma State has a +6 margin over Oklahoma. Keep in mind that while the Cowboys have two official losses on the season, the defeat against Central Michigan was later ruled an officials mistake. The only other defeat was at Baylor in the first road game of the season . The road team has won outright the last three meetings in this series, and the past two meetings in Norman produced three point overtime finals. Oklahoma is up 7 net turnovers over the last five games which has helped the team go undefeated over that span. But even with that turnover advantage the Sooners are just 3-2 ATS. On the season the Sooners are 2-4 ATS when losing the turnover battle while the Cowboys sit at 2-1 on the year. As mentioned earlier this line is inflated and we will gladly take the visitor here with35 point home field revenge from a year ago. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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12-03-16 | Temple +3 v. Navy | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 49 h 33 m | Show |
325 Temple at Navy Tough to go against the red hot Owls here in an underdog role. On the season Temple is +2.5 explosive plays per game while Navy sits at 0.2. Over the last month Temple is +19 explosive plays compared the Navy. Temple has cashed 10 straight games heading into this contest, but the Midshipmen are off offensive performances of 75 and 66 points. Temple has its bye on November 12th, while Navy hasn’t had a break since September 24th. The last four Owl opponents produced 3.7, 3.1, 3.3 and 3.8 yards per play. Navy the past three weeks have 10.5, 8.1 and 7.0 yards per play from the offense. So it’s a red hot offense against a red hot defense, something has to give. While Navy has won 6 of 7 as of late, the yards per play stats show a different story. Since October 1st Navy has lost the ypp battle in 6 of 8 games with the only wins coming against SMU and Memphis. We would much rather trust this Temple team who has won the ypp battle 8 of its last 9 games. Defense wins over offense on Saturday. And the huge Army/Navy matchup is on deck for the Midshipmen. PLAY TEMPLE |
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12-02-16 | Ohio +19 v. Western Michigan | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
303 Ohio U & Western Michigan in Detroit The Bobcats biggest loss on the season was by a margin of 9 points at Tennessee. This is a team that has been competitive in every game played and we don’t expect anything to be different come Friday. In the last ten games against FBS opposition the Bobcats held every opponent to 28 points or less. Even in games in which Ohio U lost the turnover margin this defense has permitted 27, 10, 27 and 3 points. Ohio U has great line play with a + 21 sack margin on the season. Last weeks game against Toledo was considered the must have game for Western Michigan. While the Broncos won by 20 it lost the yards per play battle 8.4 to 6.1. It was a +3 turnover margin which led to the WM victory. Western has beaten Ohio by margins of 35 and 21 points the past two seasons, so we can see the Broncos having a bit of a letdown here. Between beating Toledo last week and a possible New Years Day bowl, this game against Ohio U is a flat spot for the Broncos. Keep in mind that ESPN came to Kalamazoo the week before against Buffalo and we can see how Western Michigan would overlook the opposition here. The advantages of turnover margin and sack advantage will not be extreme against this Ohio U squad. Look for a much closer game here than projected. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-26-16 | Tennessee -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 34-45 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State -12 | Top | 12-45 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
160 Michigan State at Penn State Not buying into the Spartans improvement as this team has lost outright to Maryland and Illinois in the past five games. Michigan State is -11 in sacks on the season while Penn State is up 12 sacks in just the past seven games. We expect the Nittany Lions to dominate the line play on both sides of the ball. And Penn State has extra motivation off losses by margins of 39 and 27 points the last two years. PLAY PENN STATE |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -8 | Top | 55-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
214 Mississippi State at Mississippi This line has really surprised us. We have a bigger disparity between our line and the current line on this game than any other this weekend. On the season Ole Miss has a 1.9 explosive play advantage between these two, and over the last month its a +23 advantage for the Rebels. Ole Miss has won 3 of the last 4 with the lone loss coming in overtime in 2013. The Bulldogs over the past seven games have given up an average of 39.7 points per game. Mississippi has played the toughest schedule in the country this year. Games against Florida State, Alabama, Georgia, Memphis, Arkansas, LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M. You can understand how this team has underperformed on the scoreboard. But after an embarrassing loss last week at Vanderbilt you can be sure Hugh Freeze will have his team fired up for this one. Now 13-8 ATS here off a straight up loss in his tenure at Ole Miss, Freeze and company win this by double digits. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-26-16 | Kentucky +26 v. Louisville | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
175 Kentucky at Louisville Huge one way rivalry here for the Wildcats who are really playing well as of late. Covering 6 of 7 heading into this contest with the one pointspread defeat coming by 1/2 a point to Georgia. The Cardinals have won five straight in this series but we don’t expect the same type of emotion from Louisville. This team now not only is out of the final four discussion, but the conference championship is now an afterthought after getting blown out at Houston. Over the past seven games Louisville is -19 in sacks. Not the type of number we want when backing a favorite of this magnitude. Don’t laugh but we expect this one to come down to the wire. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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11-25-16 | Arizona State v. Arizona +3 | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show | |
142 Arizona State at Arizona Wrong team favored here in our eyes as the Sun Devils have taken a major tumble. The line play which was so good earlier in the season has really fallen off. The last two weeks Arizona State lost the sack battle by a combined 16 sacks! That’s almost unheard of. Granted Utah and Arizona are far better defensively than the Wildcats, but that’s even more of a concern as a road favorite. Over the last months the Wildcats own a +4 explosive play advantage over the Sun Devils, and the season totals are much the same. It’s not often you will find a road favorite that has lost five straight games. In fact, Arizona State has dropped eight straight in the yards per play category. Arizona has dropped 3 of the last 4 meetings in this series, and the Wildcats are having a poor season. But that can all turn around by beating Arizona State here and keeping them from becoming bowl eligible. PLAY ARIZONA |
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11-25-16 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. Baylor | Top | 54-35 | Win | 100 | 31 h 16 m | Show |
139 Texas Tech at Baylor The Red Raiders enter this game of an absolutely embarrassing loss at Iowa State. That broke a four game winning streak in the series, and marked the lowest offensive output in any game since 2011. All the quotes out of Lubbock suggest the team is excited to put that game behind them, and beat the hell out of the downtrodden Bears who crushed them last year 63-35. Baylor is simply put a dumpster fire right now with all the off-field issues taking over this program. Baylor has dropped four straight games and the offense is nowhere near as potent as in prior seasons. Over the last month Texas Tech has a +4 explode play advantage over the Bears and we actually have Texas Tech rated as the favorite here. Can’t understand the line move for a team that has not won the penalty advantage in any game, and is -6 in sacks the last month. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-25-16 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -7 | Top | 35-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
118 Toledo at Western Michigan Now that we’ve had some line movement towards the dog we will step in and lay the points with the Broncos. Toledo has been impressive on the road this year but other than the trip to BYU the opponents have been less than stellar. The coaching edge also favors the host here as Jason Candle is in his first year while PJ Fleck will be highly sought after following this season. This is also the ninth straight game for the visitor while Western had a bye just two weeks ago. In looking at explosive plays Western Michigan has been dominant. Up 2.7 per game as opposed to Toledo’s 0.4. Over the last month the Broncos have a +12 advantage over the Rockets. Western Michigan hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year and have won the yards per play battle in 10 straight games. The Broncos are the clear class of this league and it will show on the field on Friday. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-25-16 | TCU v. Texas -3 | Top | 31-9 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 29 m | Show |
128 TCU at Texas The Horned Frogs were highly thought of in the betting marketplace before the season. But I, along with many others were simply wrong about TCU. The defense has been pretty good but this offense has only surpassed last years average points of 42.1 just twice all season. While Gary Patterson has been magical off a bye posting a 24-12-1 ATS mark in his career. In two games after byes this season TCU lost by margins of 24 and 25 points. Losing ATS by a combined 49 1/2 points. This will be an extremely emotional game for the host. Charlie Strong is coaching his last game in Austin after losing outright at Kansas last week. While his won/loss record here has been a disappointment, he is beloved by his players. There is no doubt in my mind that the Longhorn players will leave everything on the field in this game. These type of contests don’t come up very often. But in retrospect the club with the added emotion has great success. PLAY TEXAS |
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11-22-16 | Ball State v. Miami (OH) -7 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
104 Ball State at Miami Ohio Last game of the season for the Cardinals who are not eligible to go bowling. The team is -1.8 explosive plays a game as the offense has struggled to throw the ball downfield. Defensively Ball State has allowed every FBS opponent 21 points or more this season. Turnovers have been a problem with a -10 margin on the season. Nothing that we have read points to any special meaning for the Cardinals here. Miami Ohio lost the first six games of the season but are now undefeated with Gus Ragland behind center. Last year and this year combined Ragland has a 15 to 0 touchdown to interception ratio. The defense has been solid all year but now the offense is playing with confidence. The last four games the Redhawks have produced 35, 37, 28 and 40 points. Miami can win the MAC East with a victory here and a loss by Ohio U tonight against a banged up Akron team. Regardless of what happens in Athens, this Miami team is on the rise. Lay the cheap number with the Redhawks. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-19-16 | Air Force v. San Jose State +10.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show |
414 Air Force at San Jose State Very tough scheduling situation for the Falcons here who are playing its third road game in the last four weeks. With a Friday showdown with Boise State on deck. Air Force has underperformed the last couple months having lost ATS in 5 of 6 contests. The lone spread victory was against Army in winning the Commander in Chief Trophy. Air Force beat San Jose State by 21 last year so there is little motivation here. San Jose State has performed better over the last month in explosive plays, despite facing the tougher of the two schedules. Over the last three games the Spartans played Boise State and San Diego State, the two top teams in the Mountain West Conference. San Jose also is coming off a needed bye after falling to the Boise State team 45-31 in a game it won the yards per play stat. San Jose State really struggled out of the gate but this team is starting to find itself, and best of all its doing so under the publics eye. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia +2.5 | Top | 56-28 | Loss | -100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
342 Oklahoma at West Virginia As well as the Sooners are playing winning seven straight games heading into this week, the list of teams it has beaten all have major flaws. The best two teams on the conference schedule are West Virginia and Oklahoma State, which is the same two teams it ends the season against. A telling sign when handicapping football is how teams do when losing the turnover battle. Oklahoma is 2-4 when that happens, which is about what you would expect. West Virginia on the other hand is 3-1 when losing the turnover battle. The only team better is the consensus best team in the nation, Alabama who is a perfect 4-0. Backing these type of teams gives you a full game of intensity, something the Sooners have lacked all season. The Mountaineers are on an 11-1 straight up run at home, yet have been installed as the underdog here. While Oklahoma is up 2.4 explosive plays per game to West Virginia and its 2.0, the Mountaineers have been better over the last month. We think the wrong team is favored here. PLAY WEST VIRGINIA |
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11-19-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Charlotte +4.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -106 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
344 Middle Tennessee State at Charlotte Huge drop-off for the Blue Raiders at quarterback with Brent Stockstill on the sidelines. Since John Urzua has taken over the yards per attempt have dropped from 7.7 to 6.0 and he’s already thrown more interceptions in 81 attempts to Stockstill 363. The yards per game has dropped nearly 150 per game. Over the last month the explosive plays have been almost exactly the same as that of the 49ers. Charlotte has been an improving team despite the loss last week against Rice. It was the first time Charlotte had been installed as a favorite and it couldn’t handle the pressure. With this being the final home game for the 49ers we feel the team has turned the corner and is capable of pulling off another upset. Over the last five games this team has led at the half, and in the game it trailed the 49ers won 27-24. Middle Tennessee State had scored 42, 51 and 43 points before the QB change, 17 and 25 since. PLAY CHARLOTTE |
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11-19-16 | Georgia Southern v. Georgia State +3 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show | |
404 Georgia Southern at Georgia State Wrong team favored in this one as Georgia State is on the upswing and its going unnoticed. The Panthers have dropped four straight on the scoreboard but when you look closer this team has been just a play or two from victories. Last week it lost to ULM despite having an 8.3 to 5.4 yards per play advantage. In fact, despite a 1-8 overall record the Panthers have held a ypp advantage in four of the last five games. Over the last month they are right there with this opponent in explosive plays. Georgia Southern enters this one having lost six of its last 7 contests. The only victory came by 3 at New Mexico State in a game it lost the yards per play stat. In looking back at how these teams did this season in the betting markets we see that Southern is at 2-7 while State is 5-4. That tells us that the Eagles simply do not deserve to be favored here. After back to back nine win seasons the betting public still considers this team as a powerhouse, it’s obviously no longer true. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma State +4.5 v. TCU | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
407 Oklahoma State at TCU The Cowboys have won 3 of the 4 meetings since the Horned Frogs entered the Big12 Conference. Oklahoma State has won six straight games entering this showdown Knocking off the likes of West Virginia and Texas Tech, two teams the Horned Frogs have lost to in the last three weeks. When looking at explosive plays over the last month and the full season Oklahoma State is superior. When losing the turnover battle the Cowboys are an excellent 2-1 ATS while the Frogs are 0-2 ATS, a telling stat that we like to use when judging team character. TCU is getting a lot of value out of two things. One is the record of Gary Patterson off a bye, which is now 24-13-1. But that wasn’t the expected positive a few weeks ago off a bye before playing West Virginia, a 34-10 loss. The other supposed advantage was a 62-22 win over Baylor before the bye. But as we have seen this Bears team is a complete disaster right now with all the legal battles and players jumping ship. We actually have the Cowboys graded out as a 3 point favorite here, and the 7 point differential in our eyes is a gift. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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11-18-16 | Memphis v. Cincinnati +7.5 | 34-7 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
316 Memphis at Cincinnati Just can’t trust this Memphis defense as a sizable road favorite here. Three of the last four games the Tigers permitted 49, 59 and 42 points. Memphis is very weak on the lines with a -9 sack margin on the season. In fact, only twice all year have the Tigers won the sack battle. Cincinnati has been a big underachiever this year but this is the spot to back the Bearcats. This team has double revenge against Memphis and the Tigers have a more important game on deck against Houston to end the season. Memphis has lost to the Cougars the past three seasons. We only made this line 4, so plenty of value on the home dog here in its home finale. Cincinnati is 29-8 straight up in Nippert Stadium the past six seasons. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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11-17-16 | Arkansas State +8 v. Troy | 35-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
313 Arkansas State at Troy Since the first bye of the season the Red Wolves have been on a run, winning five straight games and cashing each ticket. They catch Troy off that huge win over Appalachian State , who is sure to have some type of a letdown here. Now that Troy entered the poll at 25 after that win, we can see a team that’s not used to that type of success being a bit full of themselves here. On the season and covering the past month Arkansas State has a slight edge in explosive plays, which makes them a dangerous underdog tonight. We made this line a good four points shorter and the sharp money early in the week agreed. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE |
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11-16-16 | Northern Illinois v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
307 Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan With news of the quarterback change a Northern Illinois the line has dropped three points during the week. That’s way too much of an adjustment in our eyes as the change is at most a single point. Keep in mind that the Huskies lost its true starter early in the season and these two signal callers were rated equal at that point. Another reason for the Eastern Michigan love is that the Eagles are now bowl eligible while the Huskies won’t be bowling for the first time in nine years. We actually find that to be a detriment to Eastern Michigan who have had extra time to celebrate. With all the boosters and fans giving them praise all week we can see a team that’s not used to success coming out flat tonight. Northern on the other hand have beaten the Eagles 14 of 15 games, including the last four by a combined margin of 120 points, 30 points per contest. Despite the late loss last week to Toledo this team has outscored the opposition 113-58 the past three games. Rod Carey will not let this team get down on itself and the talent level isn’t a huge drop-off from last year. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |