Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-19-11 | Boston College +24.5 v. Notre Dame | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show | |
383/384 Boston College at Notre Dame
The Boston College Eagles epitomize the type of team we are looking to back. They are a decent defensive team who lacks a dynamic offense. When they win they win ugly which keeps them from getting noticed by the novice sports bettor. This is a team that has been held to 19 points or less in all but two games all season, yet they are a respectable 4-6 ATS. But more importantly they have cashed 3 of their last 4 games as the betting markets have long given up on Frank Spaziani's crew. This is a one sided rivalry in which BC has held the upper hand over the years. They have beaten the Irish straight up in 6 of the last 8 meetings, having not been a double digit underdog since 1998. Now they are installed as a more that three touchdown dog in a game which could be the defining moment in an otherwise disappointing season. You see the Eagles won't be going bowling this year for the first time in 13 seasons. So for all intents and purposes this is their bowl game, a contest with hated rival Notre Dame. Keep in mind the recent history between these two. The recent points scored in these games have been 44, 36, 17 and 41. In fact, the posted total on this game is only 47. It's hard to cover in a rivalry game when you are laying more than half as many points as are expected to be scored in the entire game. While Boston College clearly has the motivation in this game Notre Dame may come out a bit flat, after all isn't that the Irish's personality? This is a team that is 3-2 ATS in the home favorite role this season but haven't had a winning spread record in that role in any year since 2002. They have won 7 of their last 8 contests including three straight wins by 24, 7 and 42 points. They have a huge revenge game on deck against nationally ranked Stanford as the Cardinal pounded the Irish last year 37-14. That 23 point margin was their largest defeat in the last three years. With Notre Dame looking at bigger games in the future and Boston College pointing to this game on their schedule, we will gladly take the inflated line with this ugly dog. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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11-19-11 | Louisiana Tech v. Nevada -7 | Top | 24-20 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 23 m | Show |
387/388 Louisiana Tech at Nevada
We've made some nice change this season on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs as they have covered the number five straight heading into Saturday action. But now the betting public has overrated this squad in a terrible situational spot. Louisiana Tech isn't happy to be playing in the WAC and you really can't blame them. Situated in Ruston Louisiana they would be much more comfortable in either the SEC or Conference USA. But they have been relegated to the WAC with the teams from California and Utah for example which makes for a terrible road schedule. Fresh off a huge victory over SEC entrant Mississippi, the Bulldogs now head out once again for the third straight week and fifth time in their last six games. Louisiana Tech has lost six straight games to Nevada and the past three visits to Reno have resulted in losses by margins of 23, 39 and 10 points, failing to cover the number by a combined 52 1/2 points. Nevada is a covering machine at home under Chris Ault. In his current go round at the school he has posted a 30-13 spread mark in home games. In two games this year against UNLV and last week against Hawaii is was clear that Ault went for the pointspread cover in order to reward his backers. That's the way it is in Nevada where sports betting is legal. It's also telling that in the last 6+ seasons Ault is 32-19 ATS in conference action. It's a recruiting ploy for Ault who knows it's tougher to get star athletes to go to Reno when the likes of San Jose and Hawaii are viable conference alternatives. With the line sitting around a touchdown we can very easily see Ault going out of his way to cash this for local fans of the program, something he's starting to be known for. PLAY NEVADA |
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11-19-11 | Tulane +14 v. Rice | 7-19 | Win | 100 | 70 h 57 m | Show | |
355/356 Tulane at Rice
It's been another ugly season in New Orleans as the Green Wave enter play at 2-9 on the year. After win totals of 4, 3, 2, 4, 4, 2, 5 and 5 in eight plus seasons we basically know what we are going to get out of this Tulane squad. But in this particular match-up what we normally see isn't reality. The last six times Tulane has played Rice the highest posted line has been 3 1/2 points, this season it's up to two touchdowns. Surely the Rice Owls must be a powerhouse this year because we already know Tulane is basically right in line with the typical Green Wave teams of the past. But in reality the Owls enter play at 3-7 on the season. Rice has dropped 6 of their last 8 games with the wins coming against Memphis and UTEP, two teams with a combined seven victories between them. This isn't your typical Rice offense that has produced 26 points or better in 4 of the last 5 seasons. This squad has been held to less than that average in all but four games all season, scoring 24 or less in six games. Rice simply doesn't have the offensive talent to lay this type of number. In fact, they have been a double digit favorite just once in the past 6+ years. To show how overvalued this Rice team is right now the last three games they own a +6 turnover advantage yet they are 1-2 ATS losing to the number by a combined 12 1/2 points. Tulane is not a very good team by any estimation but the Owls aren't a whole lot better. Getting two touchdowns in a game with a historically close talent level gives us plenty of value with an ugly dog. PLAY TULANE |
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11-16-11 | Ohio v. Bowling Green +7 | Top | 29-28 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Ohio U at Bowling Green
The Bobcats have excelled in their two nationally televised contests beating Temple 35-31 as an underdog and taking care of Central Michigan 43-28 last Thursday. But now they face a team they have struggled with in the past. The Bobcats are just 7-12 straight up and 5-14 ATS in this series, although they have won and covered the past two seasons. Because the public has witnessed the good Ohio U the past two weeks this line has been a bit inflated. We saw the same thing with Northern Illinois last night and they struggled for the outright victory, we see more of the same tonight. Bowling Green hasn't played since an embarrassing nationally televised loss to Northern Illinois on November 8th. Ohio U on the other hand has two less days to prepare after having last played Thursday night. While Ohio U is already bowl eligible the Falcons need to sweep their last two games over the Bobcats and Buffalo for any postseason hopes. The Bowling Green offense has struggled as of late posting 21 or less points in six straight games, but this Ohio U offense hasn't always hit on all cylinders either. Bowling Green has had a problem with turnovers all year, only winning the turnover battle twice all season. But this Bobcats team also struggles in that regard so the Falcons won't be dominated in the trenches. Off two straight embarrassing losses to Kent State and Northern Illinois we expect Dave Clawson to have his team fully prepared to close out the home portion of their schedule with a win tonight. PLAY BOWLING GREEN |
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11-15-11 | Ball State +17.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
Ball State at Northern Illinois
First nationally televised game for the Cardinals who have cashed four straight games while staying under the radar. After struggling in back to back games against Oklahoma and Temple this team has rattled off point totals of 33, 35, 31 and 23 the last four games. Ball State has played very well at this venue as of late winning 2 of the last 3 visits covering the spread in those three meetings by a combined 62 points! The Cardinals excel in the role of MAC home dog posting an outstanding 14-3 ATS mark. It is their third straight road game but they are off a straight up victory at an improving Eastern Michigan squad. Northern Illinois is a very public team right now after back to back impressive nationally televised wins over Toledo and Bowling Green. But keep in mind that the Huskies only beat Buffalo by a single point and lost outright at Central Michigan. They are far from a dominant squad. Northern Illinois has three less days to prepare for this contest, and they are likely to come into this game fat and happy off five straight wins and a bye on deck. Especially when you take in to account that they beat Ball State 59-21 last year in Muncie. PLAY BALL STATE |
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11-12-11 | TCU +15.5 v. Boise State | 36-35 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show | |
151/152 TCU at Boise State
This is the first time all season TCU has been a road underdog, they haven't been a road dog since 2009 at Clemson, a straight up underdog winner. The Horned Frogs have excelled on the conference road posting a 22-5 straight up mark in MWC away action. Despite being non-conference opponents until this season these two clubs are very familiar with each other. They have met in 2 of the last 3 years in bowl action, splitting the contests with neither team winning by more than seven points. TCU is 7-2 straight up against ranked teams the past three years. Boise State is 0-3 ATS at home this year. The past 11 seasons they were 41-22 ATS in Boise. That shows how overrated this Broncos team is this season. This is a step up game for Boise State after playing the likes of UNLV, Air Force, Colorado state and Fresno State the past four games. In a telling situation the week before those games the Broncos played Nevada, the team that ruined their undefeated season a year ago. Boise State failed to cover the spread in that game by a full touchdown. PLAY TCU |
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11-12-11 | Wyoming v. Air Force -13.5 | 25-17 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 18 m | Show | |
141/142 Wyoming at Air Force
The line on this game is low in our estimation based on what happened a week ago. Wyoming gave TCU all they could handle on the scoreboard in a 31-20 loss, but that's not the real story. TCU had an obvious look ahead with Boise State on deck so they took the Cowboys lightly. After all TCU beat Wyoming 45-0 last year and had outscored them by a combined margin of 144-17 the three previous years. While Wyoming did cover the spread by 8 points against TCU they had a plus 5 turnover advantage. If you only cover a pointspread by 8 when you have a huge turnover advantage you were completely outplayed, despite the final score. Air Force in turn beat Army to win the Commander in Chief Trophy. Many will feel that their work has been done and that they are expected to letdown against the Cowboys, in fact many teams would. But this is not a normal squad, it's a group of military men who play this game for enjoyment, not as a stepping stone to the NFL. Air Force struggled against Wyoming last year in Laramie winning 20-14 as a 13 point favorite, they will not look past the Cowboys. The Falcons have dominated Wyoming defensively as of late holding them to 14, 0, 3 and 12 points the last four meetings. We expect another outstanding Air Force defensive effort on Saturday. PLAY AIR FORCE |
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11-12-11 | Rice +17 v. Northwestern | 6-28 | Loss | -115 | 68 h 36 m | Show | |
123/124 Rice at Northwestern
The Owls are coming in off a confidence building victory over UTEP 41-37 in Conference USA action. The offense has scored 20 points or more in eight straight games which makes them a dangerous underdog in this price range. They posted scoring totals of 24 against Purdue, 31 vs Baylor, 24 against Southern Miss and 34 vs Houston. They have the ability to match the Wildcats scoring as they won't be intimidated by stepping up in class. Northwestern is in a conference sandwich situation after pulling the outright upset last week at Nebraska. The Huskers had a huge letdown after shocking Michigan State the previous week with Penn State on deck. The quotes from the Husker players actually acknowledged that fact. Keep in mind that Northwestern has lost outright in 5 of their last 7 games and have traditionally been a terrible home favorite. They are 0-1 in that role this year and 5-21 ATS since 2001. Off back to back road wins over Indiana and Nebraska we expect the Wildcats to enter this game a bit overconfident. After all they beat the Owls 30-13 last year in Houston. Northwestern has permitted 25, 38, 34, 41, 42 and 38 points to their last six opponents, not the type of defense worthy of laying this many points. PLAY RICE |
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11-11-11 | South Florida -3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 37-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
South Florida at Syracuse
The Bulls have been money burners as of late dropping five straight to the number. But with closer inspection we see that they lost last week in overtime as a 2 point favorite and the prior game they failed to cover by just six points. So while the betting public has soured on this team the markets have made an overadjustment. Keep in mind this team is 4-4 on the season and is still bowl eligible. South Florida is 5-1 SU & ATS in this series including wins by 14, 31 and 27 points the last three times they played in this building. While the Bulls have obviously slipped badly the last six weeks this program is at a higher level than the one they will be playing on Friday. Syracuse is 5-4 on the season but they have been extremely fortunate with that record. They were being blown out in the opener before the Wake Forest quarterback left the game with an injury. The Orangemen stormed back against a backup to win in overtime. They also beat Toledo in overtime when the officials miscalled a field goal attempt. This is a team that has had one bye all season and has played in three overtime games. South Florida has had two byes thus far and only one overtime contest. The Orangemen are just 5-12 ATS in the home underdog role and have failed to cover 3 of their last 4 games despite a combined turnover advantage of plus 7 in those games. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA |
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11-10-11 | Ohio -6.5 v. Central Michigan | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Ohio U at Central Michigan
History will show that Central Michigan has dominated this series, but those meetings happened a long time ago. The Ohio Bobcats are 1-10 straight up in Mount Pleasant but they haven't played here since 2005. There are many things to like about the Bobcats here starting with an extra two days to prepare as they are off a Wednesday contest while the Chippewas played on Friday. And while Ohio is off a big game vs Temple they had a bye the previous week. Therefore they have played just once since October 22nd while the Chippewas played twice. Not only that but Central Michigan is now playing their 11th of 12 straight games without a bye. To make matters worst for the host each of their last four games came right down to the wire with outcomes being decided by 3, 1, 4 and 7 point margins. Central has had an emotional month and after facing the likes of Kent State, Akron, Ball State and Eastern Michigan they will be stepping up in class on Thursday. At 3-7 on the season the host is no longer bowl eligible and they have nothing to play for but pride. Central Michigan has only held the inept offenses of Kent and Akron somewhat in check. They have permitted 44 to Western Michigan and 41 to Northern Illinois. Ohio's offense is every bit as good as those two squads and this Bobcat defense is better. Ohio is the much better team here and the line is very favorable. We saw the road teams cover both games on Tuesday, add another ticket to the cashing pile on Thursday. PLAY OHIO U |
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11-09-11 | Miami (OH) +13 v. Temple | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
Miami at Temple
The Owls will be going through some changes on Wednesday as sophomore QB Chris Coyer will be getting the start after looking very good coming off the bench last week against Ohio U. While that may turn out to be a positive for the Owls a huge negative is the status of star running back Bernard Pierce. Pierce is by far the most talented rusher in the MAC and he will be playing on Sundays. He suffered a head injury late in the Ohio U game and he is likely to miss this contest. This is a revenge game for Temple who lost last year to Miami 23-3 in the season final, costing themselves the chance to play in the MAC Championship game. While they want to extract revenge we're not sure they will have that kind of success in this pointspread range. While Temple has been an excellent defensive team they have been inconsistent offensively. Likely without Pierce we don't see that changing regardless of the signal caller. Unlike the shootouts like what we have seen as of late from MAC participants this game should be decided on the defensive side of the ball. The Vegas total opened at 41 1/2 and has been bet up but that's likely more of a cause for what has happened around the league as opposed to this singular game. Miami has cashed the last two meetings in this series by margins of 27 and 15 1/2 points. They match-up very well with Temple as they both play solid defense but the Redhawks have the better and more experienced signal caller. Miami has put up 28, 41 and 35 points the last three weeks and they may have found a solid ground game after a strong showing a week ago. This is simply too many points for the Owls to lay in what is expected to be a game played in the 40's. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-08-11 | Western Michigan +12.5 v. Toledo | 63-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show | |
Western Michigan at Toledo
The Broncos have dominated this series winning 4 of the last 5 meetings in straight up fashion, including victories at Toledo by 28 and 14 points. After back to back losses Western returned to their winning ways last time out in a 10 point home victory over Ball State. This is the first nationally televised contest this season for the Broncos who finish the season playing three straight under the national lights. Toledo took a lot of game day money last week only to allow a return touchdown on the opening kick as they never could slow down Northern Illinois in a 63-60 home loss. Those special teams problems could be a concern again today as it's tough laying double digits when you aren't clicking in all three phases of the game. Toledo has faced a bevy of run first offenses this year so their secondary hasn't been tested. It was exposed last week and we feel Western Michigan can have success once again. This line is inflated based on the Toledo offensive numbers and the recent play of Western Michigan. We expect this game to be decided by a touchdown. PLAY WESTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-05-11 | Louisiana Tech +3.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 123 h 59 m | Show |
389/390 Louisiana Tech at Fresno State
The Bulldogs have traditionally struggled on the road and it makes a great deal of sense. Located in Ruston Louisiana it's a hell of a long way to get to the other locations in the WAC, especially all the way to the coast to face a team from California. But that hasn't been the case this year which tells us just how good this Bulldogs squad is. Louisiana Tech is a perfect 4-0 ATS on the road this year cashing at the likes of Southern Miss, Mississippi State, Idaho and Utah State. This is a team that came within 2 at the Top 25 Golden Eagles, took an SEC squad like the Bulldogs to overtime, won by 13 visiting the Vandals which is always a tough trip, and winning outright in Logan against a pretty good Aggie squad. Only Idaho can be considered a weaker team than Fresno State. Louisiana Tech has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings in this series and they are looking to avenge a home loss to the Bulldogs last year. Fresno State has just three wins on the season, against North Dakota, Idaho and Utah State. North Dakota is an FCS school, Idaho is winless against FCS competition and Utah State owns one FCS victory. Needless to say this Fresno State team is way down from the last four seasons when they posted a combined 32-20 record. Fresno has never had much of a home field advantage. The last 5+ seasons they have posted a 7-23-1 spread mark in Bulldog Stadium. The last five times Fresno State hosted Louisiana Tech they managed an 0-4-1 spread record. The Bulldogs are a very young team with just 10 returning starters. They haven't yet learned how to win, a problem the visiting Bulldogs have finally figured out. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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11-05-11 | Washington State +10 v. California | Top | 7-30 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 2 m | Show |
365/366 Washington State at California
Talk about public perception leading to a bad line. Washington State came into this season winning 2, 1 and 2 games the first three years of the Paul Wulff regime. They started the season winning 3 of 4 but have dropped four straight heading into this contest. So those on the outside looking in are saying that this is the same old Cougars team that is the laughingstock of the PAC 12. But those willing to put in the effort know that this is a team that is much better than their recent results. Washington State lost at UCLA by 3 earlier this month, a team that crushed California last week. They then lost at Stanford by 30, a team that was won and covered every game this season. The following week the Cougars were in the unfamiliar home favorite role against Oregon State and predictably failed to live up to expectations. It was the first conference home favorite role under Wulff. Last week Washington State lost at Oregon but played them extremely well in a 43-28 loss on the road. The Cougars cashed just 4 of 7 tries in the red zone as the Oregon special teams caused them fits. But in between the 20's the Cougars played the Ducks virtually even. Because of those games we are seeing great pointspread value on the visitor who has cashed 7 of 9 in the road underdog role. California on the other hand is known to have a huge home field advantage. But they are not playing at home this season, instead the Bears are calling AT&T Park their home as Memorial Stadium is being renovated. So because of public perception this line is at least a field goal too high in our estimation. Cal is 4-4 on the year with wins over Fresno State, Colorado, Presbyterian and Utah. Just two weeks ago they were just 1 1/2 point home favorites over the Utes, now they are laying over a touchdown more to a very comparable Washington State club. If you've followed the Golden Bears over the last seven years or so you are well acquainted with the California fade. It's not a haircut or a dance but the way the Golden Bears end their seasons. Over that time frame California is 8-21 ATS the last four games of the regular season, to go along with 2-4 ATS in bowl games. Washington State marks the first of the final four games of the season for California. We will ride the wave, or the fade in this instance, with the underrated Cougars. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE |
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11-05-11 | Idaho +9.5 v. San Jose State | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 116 h 25 m | Show | |
371/372 Idaho at San Jose State
The Vandals lost another heartbreaker last week as they missed a field goal that would have given them a win over Hawaii. Now 1-7 on the season including six straight losses gives us value this week against San Jose State. Keep in mind that this Vandals team lost in overtime at Virginia and dropped a 7 point decision at a much improved New Mexico State team. Despite the terrible record they are a respectable 4-4 ATS on the year and a perfect 2-0 in the road underdog role. Now 9-3 ATS as road dogs the past 2+ seasons. This has been a low scoring series with points coming at a premium. The last six meetings have averaged just 40 points and based on the two teams this season we can see another low scoring affair. Catching over a touchdown in a low scoring game is huge, especially when you consider that the last four meetings have been decided by 8 points or less. San Jose State is just 3-5 on the year and has won just six games straight up the past 2+ seasons. They own victories over New Mexico State by 10, Colorado State by 7 and Hawaii by a single point. They have just one victory over an FBS squad the past three seasons by more than the current line in this game. The Spartans are 0-5 ATS the past 2+ seasons as a home favorite. While San Jose State is an improving ball club they can not yet be trusted in this price range. PLAY IDAHO |
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11-05-11 | Southern Mississippi v. East Carolina +9.5 | Top | 48-28 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 52 m | Show |
369/370 Southern Miss at East Carolina
The Golden Eagles have started to get a great deal of press based on their 7-1 start. They have broken into the Top 25 for the first time in seven years and they are being featured on CBS Sports College Football Confidential the next three weeks. A nice accomplishment for Larry Fedora and his players. But all that does is make this Southern Miss team complacent and overrated in the betting marketplace. Keep in mind that the Golden Eagles have dropped 3 of the last 5 meetings in this series despite being favored four times against East Carolina. Southern Miss has cashed 6 straight games overall heading into this match-up so they are a bit overvalued right now despite facing a very weak schedule. East Carolina has won three straight after being embarrassed 56-3 at Houston. That was the first of three straight road games for the Pirates, but they rebounded nicely since that game as this young team has matured. Now in their second home game in a row we expect East Carolina to be a very dangerous home underdog. Now 13-5-1 ATS in the role of home underdogs the Pirates look for their third straight outright win in this series. While Southern Miss will provide a much tougher defensive opponent than they have faced as of late, this Pirates defense themselves is getting better and better each week. Keep in mind that East Carolina is 5-3 ATS on the season. In each of their three losses they had a negative turnover differential of 4 in every game. QB Dominique Davis is coming into his own and the mistakes he made earlier this year are in the rearview mirror. After all he had a 37-16 touchdown to interception ratio a season ago and he has been in a record breaking mood the past two weeks. A red hot quarterback and an improved stop unit makes this home dog a dangerous one. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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11-05-11 | Kansas +14.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 117 h 48 m | Show |
339/340 Kansas at Iowa State
The Jayhawks are coming off a string of six games in which they faced teams that are or have been in the Top 25 at one time or another this season. As expected they were pounded on a regular basis which culminated in a 43-0 loss last week at Texas. That was the first time Kansas has been shutout since the 2002 football season. In fact, the Texas defensive starters reentered the game late to ensure the blanking. Now after being humiliated on a regular basis they face off against a team they have beaten straight up in 5 of the last 6 meetings. A team that is coming off a huge upset victory over a squad that beat Oklahoma the previous week. Kansas is stepping way down in class this week and yet they are in the same pointspread range as games against Georgia Tech and Kansas State, two teams far superior to the Cyclones. Iowa State was winless in Big 12 action going into last week, losing by margins of 23, 23, 35 and 16 points. They took advantage of a terrible scheduling spot for Texas Tech off a huge Oklahoma upset with in-state rival Texas on deck. So now Iowa State comes in fat and happy off their best game of the season and a bye on deck, facing a team that has been beaten by a combined score of 330-124 the past six games. Do you really think Paul Rhoads will have the attention of his players in practice this week? All his team knows is that they just beat the team that beat Oklahoma and that they won 28-16 over Kansas last year. Handicapping 101 says that we need to hold our noses and back the Jayhawks here. We didn't do that with the St Louis Rams on Sunday and we're still kicking ourselves, it won't happen again. PLAY KANSAS |
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11-03-11 | Akron v. Miami (OH) -14 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show | |
305/306 Akron at Miami Ohio
Akron has the lowest ranked offense in all of college football and we doubt they will have much success here. They put up 22 points last week against Central Michigan but all those points came after the Chippewas has a substantial lead. In their road games this season the Zips have lost by margins of 8, 45 and 42 points without a single pointspread cover. Akron is winless on the season despite playing 5 of 8 games at friendly Infocision Stadium. Akron has now gone 12 straight games on the road without coming closer than 7 points on the scoreboard. This is a team that is 1-19 straight up in the Rob Ianello era. Defensively they have performed pretty solid this season but this offense has major problems. Miami has struggled this year when stepping up in class but against lesser or equal foes the Redhawks have thrived, especially as of late where they have won 3 of their last 4 contests. Defensively Miami has been stellar, holding the likes of Missouri to 17, Kent State to 3 and Buffalo to 13. They have the talent to keep the Zips to 10 points or less here. Last year they held Akron to 14, so if the Zips repeat that output we feel strongly of a Redhawks cover here. Like Akron Miami doesn't have a strong offense but they are getting better as the season has unfolded. Overall three of the last four weeks they have posted scores of 41, 28 and 35 points. This is a big game for the Don Treadwell program and Miami overall. They play three straight games in front of nationwide audiences with the next two being against much tougher foes in Temple and Western Michigan. Miami has dominated this series winning 6 of 7 overall while cashing at a 4-2-1 clip. Look for the Miami defense to control this game as they wear down the Zips. PLAY MIAMI OHIO |
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11-01-11 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -7.5 | 63-60 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
Northern Illinois at Toledo
Northern Illinois was a dangerous road team under Jerry Kill the last three seasons posting a 12-6 spread mark away from DeKalb under his watch. But now that he's gone off to Big 10 country the Huskies have struggled when stepping away from home. Northern Illinois is 0-4 ATS away from home this year losing to the pointspread by a combined 61 1/2 points. They lost outright at Kansas when favored, were beaten by 42 in Chicago against Wisconsin, lost outright by 7 at Central Michigan as over a touchdown favorite and last week struggled to beat Buffalo 31-30 as a two touchdown chalk. Simply put this team has underperformed all season, especially away from home. They own three wins on the season over Army, Cal Poly and Kent State. Since 1997 Northern Illinois is 1-6 straight up and 2-5 ATS at Toledo losing by pointspread margins of 8, 45 1/2, 17 1/2, 4 and 24 points. This is a program that has had a lot of success overall on the road but not in the Glass Bowl. Since 2002 Toledo is an amazing 34-17 against the spread at home, including 25-13 in the home favorite role. They are 12-4-1 ATS overall in this series. But more important than all of that is that the Rockets lost to the Huskies 65-30 last year in DeKalb. This is one team that holds a grudge after being beaten badly by a conference opponent. In 2009 Toledo lost to Western Michigan by 32 points, last year they covered by 16 against the Broncos. Also in 2009 they lost by 16 to Temple, this year in the next meeting they covered by 31 1/2 against the Owls. In 2009 the Rockets dropped a 28 point decision to Central Michigan and last year they covered by 7 against the Chippewas. How bout the same year they dropped a 14 point decision to Bowling Green and last season they cashed by 8 1/2 against the Falcons. The 65 points Toledo permitted to Northern Illinois last year was the most the Rockets have given up in over two decades. You can bet Tim Beckman will remind his team of that this week. PLAY TOLEDO |
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10-29-11 | Wake Forest +7 v. North Carolina | 24-49 | Loss | -100 | 73 h 5 m | Show | |
119/120 Wake Forest at North Carolina
Wake enters play this week with a solid 5-2 record with one of the two losses coming in overtime at Syracuse before this team learned how to win. Keep in mind that was the season opener coming off a 3-9 year. The Demon Deacons had a big lead in that game before the starting quarterback was injured, and they collapsed down the stretch. But since that time only Virginia Tech has gotten the better of Wake with close victories coming against Boston College, Florida State and Duke. This is still a team that is underrated in the betting marketplace with a 4-3 spread mark with pointspread defeats by 1 and 2 1/2. This is a program under Jim Grobe which stresses taking care of the football and playing the field position game. Since 2001 when Grobe took over the reigns in Winston-Salem the Demon Deacons have a plus 67 turnover advantage. That makes for a dangerous underdog in this price range. With Notre Dame and Clemson the next two weeks this is a game Wake needs to win. North Carolina has a severe coaching disadvantage in this game. With the Butch Davis fiasco leaving the program with a stacked deck this coaching staff lacks experience and has made many puzzling in-game moves. Despite having quality athletes the Tar Heels are only 5-3 straight up and 3-5 ATS on the season. They are off back to back losses against physical Miami and Clemson squads. This is also a sandwich game for NC as they had blowout revenge against Miami Florida and Clemson is a Top 10 squad. On deck they face their in-state rival NC State looking to avenge four straight losses in the series. Unlike the Demon Deacons North Carolina doesn't do a very good job of taking care of the football. When facing good defenses they have lost the turnover battle to Rutgers, Miami and Clemson by a combined margin of 11. The Tar Heels are on an 8-16 spread run when installed as a conference favorite. This is not the type of team worthy of laying such a number. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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10-29-11 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -14 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 50 h 44 m | Show | |
189/190 Baylor at Oklahoma State
The Baylor Bears continue to be a nationally featured football team because of QB Robert Griffin III, but this is still a middle of the road at best Big 12 squad. They are 4-2 on the season with wins over TCU who lost an NFL starting QB, Stephen F Austin, Rice and Iowa State. They lost to the only two good teams they played Kansas State and Texas A&M. Baylor has simply been dominated in this series losing 14 of 16 meetings with a 2-12-2 spread mark. The last five years Baylor has lost to Oklahoma State by margins of 27, 27, 28, 31 and 42 points, failing to cover the posted number by a combined 88 1/2 points. Sure the Bears are better than they have been in the past but so are the Cowboys. Baylor can score on anyone but keep in mind they allowed 48 to TCU, 31 to Rice, 36 to Kansas State and 55 to Texas A&M. The offense is good but this defense has major problems. Oklahoma State has won 18 of their last 20 games going 15-4-1 ATS in the process. Not only are they covering but they are doing so by margins which shows just how underrated this Cowboy team is. They have cashed the last six games each by 5 points or more. As a home favorite Oklahoma State is 24-12 ATS. This is a team that not only has to win but has to do so by margins in order to get the opportunity to play for the National Championship against the SEC entrant. This is an offense that can score at will against Baylor. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE |
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10-29-11 | SMU +3 v. Tulsa | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 9 m | Show |
153/154 SMU at Tulsa
SMU had a major letdown last week after gaining revenge on Central Florida for a loss in last years Conference USA championship game. After putting up point totals of 38, 40, 42 and 40 the prior four weeks Southern Miss held the Mustangs to just 3 total points, the lowest points scored in the June Jones era. Now SMU comes out with a vengeance against a team they have cashed against 6 of the last 7 meetings, the lone pointspread loss being a 21-18 win last year laying 6 1/2. In those seven meetings SMU has covered the pointspread by a combined total of 94 points! They are 12-7 ATS as a conference road underdog. Here is a stat you rarely see in your handicapping. SMU is 4-3 ATS on the season despite not winning the turnover battle in any game. As we all know if you can predict the team that will win the turnover battle you will get rich in your sports betting. So even though the Mustangs have yet to win the turnover battle against any opponent they have a winning spread record. That right there shows you how undervalued this SMU team is in the sports betting marketplace. Tulsa has only won the turnover battle three times all season, all against far inferior competition. They held the edge against Tulane, North Texas and Rice who are a combined 6-16 straight up against FBS competition this season. When stepping out of the dregs of college football Tulsa has lost by 33, 26 and 20 points, allowing 47, 59 and 41 points in the process. Tulsa has beaten up on the likes of Tulane, North Texas, UAB and Rice, they are taking a sizable step up in class here. Keep in mind that the Golden Hurricane are 4-12 ATS in this series and the road team has cashed 7 of the last 9 meetings. Off back to back satisfying double digit wins the much more motivated squad resides in Dallas. PLAY SMU |
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10-29-11 | Boston College +7.5 v. Maryland | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 34 m | Show |
141/142 Boston College at Maryland
Boston College has been favored over Maryland each of the last six years yet the Eagles are installed as a touchdown underdog here. This is a team that excels in the role of road underdog posting a 16-8 ATS mark. Coming off a spread covering competitive loss at Virginia Tech the Eagles are stepping way down in class here. Sure the offense has struggled all season but it's not like they are facing the same stop units as they have the last two games. Clemson and Virginia Tech are far more advanced than this Maryland defense. Maryland owns just two victories on the season. The first was hosting Miami Florida in the season opener when new coach Al Golden hadn't had enough time to prepare his team after taking over for Randy Shannon. New coaches often struggle out of the gate and with all the off-season troubles this program faced it was clear Golden wasn't ready for a conference clash right out of the box. The other victory for the Terrapins was over FCS entrant Towson, a non-covering victory. Maryland is on a 7-16 spread run as home favorites. They have cashed just once since the opening game against an unprepared Miami squad. Each of the last four meetings in this series have been decided by a seven points or less, so we ask why is this line so inflated? The Terrapins are playing for the seventh straight week after facing three physical squads in Florida State, Clemson and Georgia Tech. BC on the other hand had a bye week before taking on the Hokies last week. Boston College is the fresher team and the line in this game is overly adjusted because of the weak Eagle offense. Maryland isn't the type of team you lay this type of number with as they have underperformed against the spread all season. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE |
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10-29-11 | Virginia Tech v. Duke +16 | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 10 m | Show | |
135/136 Virginia Tech at Duke
The Hokies have underperformed all season posting a 2-6 spread record and 1-6 mark the past seven games. With the only straight up loss coming against Top 10 ranked Clemson the general public continues to view the Hokies as an elite club. But in following this team all season we know better. This is a club that has unimpressive victories over East Carolina by 7, Miami at home by 3 in a game they needed to score late for the outright win and last week they trailed Boston College at home at halftime. Virginia Tech has traditionally been an excellent road favorite but this season they are 1-2 in that role. Now they will be playing without their leading tackler Bruce Taylor who was lost for the season against BC. We also question the Hokies motivation here as they are coming off three straight victories with a bye on deck. Coming out of the bye they face Georgia Tech and North Carolina in nationally televised Thursday night contests. It also doesn't help that Virginia Tech beat Duke 44-7 last year in Blacksburg. Duke is a much improved team this year under David Cutcliffe with a 3-4 record with two of those defeats coming by 1 and 2 points. Only Stanford and Florida State got the better of the Blue Devils and both of those teams are superior to VT. Duke is 11-7 ATS the last two plus seasons as an ACC dog and this is a hungry squad looking to avenge that 37 point defeat. Keep in mind that Duke easily covered the prior two meetings in this series by pointspread margins of 9 and 6 points. Duke permitted 30 points or more 12 times the last two seasons but only Stanford and Florida State have scored more than 27 against this stop unit in 2011. This is two many points to lay with an overrated squad in a clear lookahead situation. PLAY DUKE |
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10-26-11 | Connecticut +10.5 v. Pittsburgh | 20-35 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
Connecticut at Pittsburgh
The last five meetings in this series featured single digit spreads with the underdog cashing all five contests, while winning four of those outright. So why has this line come out at double digits? Both teams enter play at 3-4 on the season and they have both beaten the only two common opponents in Buffalo and South Florida, UConn sweeping the games ATS while Pitt split against the number. Connecticut is 8-4 ATS as a road dog the last three seasons including 5-2 in that role in conference play. In fact, the Huskies are now 11-4 catching points regardless of the location. The reason is pretty simple, the Huskies play solid defense and they rarely turn the ball over, two positives when playing an underdog. The last five seasons UConn has a plus 29 turnover differential and teams that win the turnover battle are a terrific pointspread play. Last year Connecticut held a plus 2 margin against the Panthers and they won outright as a 6 point underdog. Pittsburgh has really struggled under former Tulsa head man Todd Graham. An excellent innovator offensively he just doesn't have the correct players to fit his system at Pitt. As opposed to the ball control offense of UConn the Panthers have only won the turnover battle in one game all season. When they lose the turnover battle they are 0-4 against the spread. This is a team that has scored 14, 10 and 12 points three of the last four games. Tough to lay double digits when you have trouble putting points on the board. Pitt is now 0-3 ATS this season as a home favorite failing to cover the number by a combined 53 points! UConn played on national television just once all season losing outright at home to Iowa State. Pittsburgh on the other hand blew out a weak South Florida team just four weeks ago. The betting public tends to remember what they saw last and to them Pittsburgh is clearly the far superior team. We beg to differ. PLAY CONNECTICUT |
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10-25-11 | Troy +7 v. Florida International | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show | |
101/102 Troy at Florida International
The Trojans are in revenge here for a 52-35 home loss against FIU last season. That defeat cost Troy the outright league championship that they ended up sharing with the Golden Panthers. Troy had won the previous six meetings between these two schools. After winning eight or more games the past five seasons Troy is just 2-4 entering play tonight, but two of those losses were to Top 10 opposition Clemson and Arkansas. Troy has dropped their last two games and they have never lost three straight since joining the Sun Belt Conference. In the role of conference road dog the Trojans are 3-0 ATS the past 5+ seasons, so this is a rare role for the visitor. In each of the seven meetings in this series Troy has been a favorite of eight points or more, now they are installed as close to a touchdown underdog in a game they had circled coming into the season. While Troy has yet to play in front of a national audience the Golden Panthers have done so three times this season. They won 2 of those 3 games including an outright upset at Louisville. But despite a 4-3 record this team only boasts a 3-4 spread mark. In fact, they failed to cover against Akron by a touchdown, the worst team in the FBS. FIU has dropped four straight to the number and in the role of home favorite they are just 3-7 ATS since 2009. Troy has three extra days to prepare off two embarrassing losses in a game they circled coming into the season. FIU may have the better known players but Troy has the better football program. PLAY TROY |
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10-22-11 | Georgia Tech +3 v. Miami (Florida) | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 34 m | Show | |
319/320 Georgia Tech at Miami Fl
Georgia Tech was a darling in the betting community early on with four straight pointspread covers. But after going 0-2-1 ATS the last three weeks the Yellow Jackets have lost their luster. Georgia Tech has been at their best after losing outright as a favorite under Paul Johnson, now 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in that role. Keep in mind that this is a team that doesn't hurt themselves, as last week was the first time this year that the club lost the turnover battle. The Jackets are now 7-3 ATS as road dogs under Johnson and 13-6 ATS overall on the road. This team doesn't get rattled in enemy territory and is always dangerous because of the way they play offensively. Off back to back poor offensive performances and with revenge for a 35-10 home beat-down by the Hurricanes a year ago we expect Georgia Tech to put in their best effort of the year. Miami has the better personnel in this matchup but you never know what kind of effort you will get from this group. We we see the same intensity that we saw last week as the Hurricanes went into Chapel Hill and beat North Carolina? Or will we see a team that lost at home to Kansas State and lost and failed to cover at Maryland? Miami hasn't posted a winning conference or overall home favorite spread mark since 2001,which shows just how little this home field means for the Hurricanes. Off a satisfying road win with a Thursday nationally televised revenge affair hosting Virginia on deck do you really think Miami will be fully focused for the Georgia Tech option? Not on your life, as Miami has never been considered a high academic recruiter. All these kids know is that they have beaten Georgia Tech by a combined 41 points the past two years and on Thursday they can strut their stuff in front of all their friends. That's not the type of team we want to back. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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10-22-11 | Texas A&M v. Iowa State +21 | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 35 m | Show | |
333/334 Texas A&M at Iowa State
After facing the likes of Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Texas Tech and Baylor this is a flat spot in the schedule for the Aggies. Even more so when you consider that they have Missouri, Oklahoma and Kansas State on deck. Off a 55-28 blowout hosting Baylor the team could be fat and happy heading into Ames on Saturday. Mike Sherman hasn't exactly excelled in the college ranks after coming over from the NFL. His teams continually have the more talented players but rarely do they play up to that talent level. Which is a major reason why they are just 2-4 ATS despite a 4-2 straight up mark. This is a team that has played away from College Station twice this year and have yet to gain an ATS victory. With embarrassing 30-9 home loss revenge on deck against Missouri it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Aggies overlook this lesser foe. For a point of reference under Sherman the Aggies have never been more than a 14 point road favorite. Iowa State enters this game at 3-3 overall and 0-3 in Big 12 action. They have been beaten soundly the last three weeks by Texas, Baylor and Missouri. But keep in mind they were getting 15 at Baylor and 17 1/2 at Missouri, now they are getting a higher spread despite playing at home. The last 4+ years the Cyclones are a respectable 14-12 ATS at Jack Trice Stadium where they already own an outright underdog victory over Iowa this season. Even in defeat last week the team may have found their quarterback of the future in Redshirt Freshman Jared Barnett who looked good replacing Steele Jantz last week. So now the Aggies have to prepare for two signal callers instead of one. The last time Iowa State was anywhere near this pointspread range at home was last season when they received 17 points while hosting #9 ranked Nebraska. Iowa State gave the Huskers all they could handle in a 31-30 overtime loss. We expect another great effort from Paul Rhodes crew as they take advantage of an overconfident favorite. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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10-22-11 | East Carolina v. Navy -10 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -104 | 52 h 24 m | Show |
369/370 East Carolina at Navy
The Pirates of East Carolina were good to us last week after an embarrassing performance at Houston. But now we find the Pirates playing their third straight road game in a non-conference affair with Navy, a team that beat them 76-35 last year. Just like a season ago East Carolina is more worried about conference action than preparing for the Navy option. Now standing at 2-1 in the East Division of Conference USA the team has goals of making it to the conference championship. So despite having revenge from last year we can't see the Pirates approaching this game with high intensity. They couldn't stop Navy last year and with five straight conference games on deck we can't see the Midshipmen having any trouble scoring again this season. Offensively the Pirates will be missing two starters on the offensive line and they already lack big play ability. Going into the Memphis games last week East Carolina had just one offensive play of 40 or more yards. While they did have three against Memphis that was likely more of a factor of the Tigers defense than the Pirates offense. Navy should be a fired up squad as they enter play off four straight losses including a 21-20 defeat at Rutgers last week. This is a team that rarely turns the ball over based on their style of play as they haven't lost the turnover battle in any game this year. In fact, Navy is plus 36 in turnover ratio the past 4+ seasons. East Carolina on the other hand have lost the turnover battle in the last four games by a whopping 12 miscues. Navy does have rival Notre Dame on deck but after tasting defeat as frequently as they have the Midshipmen will not overlook East Carolina. While Navy has lost four straight, three of those defeats were by margins of 1, 1 in overtime and 3. Navy takes out some frustrations here. PLAY NAVY |
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10-22-11 | Louisiana Tech +6.5 v. Utah State | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 57 m | Show | |
345/346 Louisiana Tech at Utah State
The Bulldogs are off a bye after pounding Idaho 24-11 at the Kibbie Dome. This team has been road warriors this season covering by 10 at Southern Miss, taking Mississippi State to overtime as a 19 1/2 point underdog and beating Idaho by 13 laying 4. While distance is normally a major factor for a team outside of the WAC's general area it won't be this week with the Buuldogs off that bye. These teams have played six times in conference action with Louisiana Tech winning five times, the lone loss by 2 points in 2009. In those six meetings the Bulldogs have covered the pointspread by a combined 25 1/2 points. Last year Louisiana Tech held the Aggies in check 24-6 at home. Both teams are very similar as they each start freshmen signal callers, but the Louisiana defense is the superior unit on the field. Utah State is a bit overrated in the public's eye as they took BYU to the wire earlier in a nationally televised contest. All Joe Public knows is this is the team who took Auburn to the wire and the Tigers are the defending National Champions. While all that is true this is also the same team who lost at Fresno State by double digits last week and who also dropped an overtime affair hosting the very weak Colorado State Rams. The Aggies own one spread win as a home favorite vs BCS competition the past two seasons. Utah State is 3-7 ATS as of late in Romney Stadium and they are 0-5 ATS at home against conference rivals the past two plus years. Simply put Utah State is 2-4 on the season with wins over Weber State and Wyoming, they simply do not deserve to be a favorite in this price range against a quality traveler. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-20-11 | UCLA v. Arizona -4 | Top | 12-48 | Win | 100 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
UCLA at Arizona
Both teams had byes last week but Arizona used the extra week to fire their head coach and promote the defensive coordinator. Tim Kish takes over for Stoops as he was on the staff as the defensive coordinator. While Kish has no head coaching experience the change at the top has to be viewed as a positive for Arizona. The players had been tuning out the high strung Stoops who clearly wore his emotions on his sleeves. Word out of Tucson is the players and the practices are more relaxed and the new coach has brought back a fun atmosphere. Off five straight losses the Wildcats are a hungry team and they want to assure the higher ups in the administration that the move was warranted. Offensively Arizona doesn't have any problems as Nick Foles will likely be playing on Sundays. The problem has been a defense which has regularly struggled and has had to deal with injuries. But after playing the likes of Oklahoma State, Oregon, Stanford and USC we expect the Arizona stop unit to step it up this week in front of a home national audience. Arizona has owned this series as of late winning 4 straight while cashing 3 of those games. The only non-cover for the Wildcats was last year when they were favored by 9 on the road and won by just 8. UCLA is now on a 3-10 spread run as a conference road dog. The defense has permitted 38, 49 and 45 points to the only three decent offenses they have faced. This is coming off a year in which they permitted over 30 ppg. UCLA has won three games this season but those wins came over San Jose State and Washington State at home along with a victory at Oregon State. Those teams have a combined record of 6-11 vs FBS competition. UCLA has averaged less than 15 points per game the last three years against Arizona. They don't have enough offensive talent to trade points with the Wildcats. This is a huge game for the host after the coaching change and it's in front of a national television audience. Look for Arizona to make a statement here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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10-15-11 | Idaho +3 v. New Mexico State | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 49 m | Show |
189/190 Idaho at New Mexico State
The Vandals enter this game still looking for their first victory over an FBS participant and that gives us plenty of value since Joe Public isn't running out to bet Idaho on his parlay cards. This game fits a simple system that we've used for years that has a lot of validity. When two bad teams face off always take the points. The reasoning is simple, as the team winning the game is just happy as hell to get the "W" and isn't prepared to extend the margin. It's hard to ask a bad football team to not only win but to win by a margin, and despite the play here on the Vandals these are two bad football teams. That said, Idaho is the lesser of two evils. From a pure power rating angle we actually have Idaho as a 3 point favorite in this game. Last week they dropped a 24-11 home contest to Louisiana Tech. But in looking over the box score we see that the Vandals came within 13 points as a 4 point underdog despite a -4 turnover margin. Keep in mind this is the same team who gave their all the week prior in a 21-20 loss at Virginia, in a spot in which they could have easily been a no-show in the middle of conference action. Idaho has dominated this series winning 13 of 17 meetings and cashing 7 of the last 9. They beat the Aggies by margins of 23, 15 and 6 points the last three years, covering the spread by a combined margin of 35 points. New Mexico State is coming in off a bye week after outlasting in-state rival New Mexico 42-28. For a team that had won a combined 18 games the last 6+ years you know they were flying high the last two weeks with all the Aggies boosters patting them on the back. While they enter this game at 2-3 on the season the wins came against Minnesota and New Mexico, two of the most troubled programs in college football. Minnesota coach Jerry Kill recently marveled at the lack of talent he was given from departing head coach Brewster. So even though New Mexico State has a better resume this remains one of the worst teams in college football. Keep in mind the Aggies are now 4-15 ATS in the role of home favorite and 3-15 ATS overall in Aggie Memorial Stadium. This is not a strong home field advantage by any measure. Idaho on the other hand is in their preferred role of road dog in which they boast a 9-3 spread record including covers at Texas A&M and Virginia by a combined 21 points this year. PLAY IDAHO |
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10-15-11 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech -3 | 41-34 | Loss | -103 | 119 h 12 m | Show | |
179/180 Kansas State at Texas Tech
Hats off to the job Bill Snyder has done since returning to Kansas State. He has his team standing at 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS with wins over Miami Florida, Baylor and Missouri. He now has his team ranked in the Top 25, but now the Wildcats have become an overrated squad as they go on the road for just the second time this season. The last time they traveled they took on a Miami Hurricane squad right after their huge revenge victory over Ohio State. And if you've followed the Miami program you know from one week to the next that they could be the most inconsistent team in college football. In fact, they haven't had a winning home spread mark since 2001, a full decade. Now they head to Lubbock to face a team they haven't come close to covering against in years. Simply put Texas Tech has owned Kansas State regardless of who has been on the sidelines. How's this for series dominance: 66-14 as a 16 point favorite, 58-28 as a 7 point chalk, 59-20 as a 15 point favorite, 35-25 as a 3 point underdog, 38-19 as a 14 point underdog and a 23-28 loss as a 31 point underdog. In the last six meetings the Red Raiders are 6-0 ATS in this series covering by a grand total of 127 points! That includes double digit covers as substantial favorites, small favorites, small dogs and sizable dogs. No matter what the strengths or weaknesses of these teams Texas Tech simply dominates the Wildcats. Now with the Red Raiders being undervalued with close decisions against Texas A&M, Kansas and Nevada we can step in and take the dominant team playing at home with an extremely short number. Texas Tech is 26-14-1 ATS off a straight up loss and have a trip to Norman to face Oklahoma on deck. The Red Raiders have had only one losing home spread record going back over a decade, and in that season they were 2-3 ATS. This is one of the strongest home field advantages in the country. Off an outright loss we look for Tech to continue their dominance over the Wildcats. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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10-15-11 | East Carolina -15.5 v. Memphis | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 24 m | Show |
183/184 East Carolina at Memphis
The Pirates take a major step down in class this week after facing the likes of South Carolina, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and Houston. East Carolina has lost to teams that are a combined 21-3. At 1-4 on the season the team still has a shot at winning their division, even after losing the turnover battle by an astounding 12 the past three weeks combined. One of our favorite handicapping angles is to take a much more talented team off an embarrassing loss against a squad they have dominated in the past. Say what you want about the Pirates this team and this program is miles ahead of the program they will be facing on Saturday. Off a humiliating 56-3 loss to Top 25 Conference USA powerhouse Houston the Pirates will be playing with a chip on their shoulders. Keep in mind that East Carolina has beaten Memphis by 22, 19, 20, 16 and 15 points the past five years, covering the spread by a combined 56 points. Memphis owns two victories over FBS teams the last 2+ years combined. One of those victories came against a Sun Belt Conference entrant and the other was a victory over UTEP in 2009. This is a team with virtually no home field advantage with home losses by margins of 42 and 45 against FBS teams this season. In fact, against non-FCS competition Memphis has lost by margins of 42, 45, 20, 36, 39, 22 and 41 points the last seven home games. Memphis failed to cover those games by a combined 98 points! Now they take on a superior team with a major chip on their shoulders. This one could and will get ugly in a hurry. PLAY EAST CAROLINA |
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10-15-11 | Central Florida +3 v. SMU | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 60 m | Show | |
169/170 Central Florida at SMU
The Knights have been an afterthought in the eyes of the betting public after losing a 24-17 nationally televised decision to BYU a few weeks back. They have dropped three straight against the number losing the turnover battle by 2 in each of those three games. Still, Central Florida boasts one of the strongest defensive units in college football allowing only three defensive touchdowns on the season, and not a single score through the air. Star running back Brynn Harvey returned fully healthy last week and tore up the Marshall defense for 180 yards on the ground. He missed all last season because of injury and his touches were limited the first four games of the year. A healthy Harvey gives this offense a huge boost as it takes some of the pressure off QB Godfrey. UCF is in a strong role as the team is 10-4 ATS as road dogs. Central Florida has held their own as of late against SMU winning the last three meetings including last years Conference USA Championship game. What's been really impressive is that they have held the high powered SMU offense to 7, 17 and 20 points. Well below the Mustangs season averages of 25.7, 21.3 and 28.3 in those years. The Knights are also 9-1 ATS on the Conference USA road the past 2+ seasons. SMU enters play having won four straight games including a very emotional 40-33 overtime victory over TCU two weeks ago. That game led to a war of words between June Jones and TCU head coach Gary Patterson. Coming off a huge victory and sitting around campus for two weeks is an easy way for players to get overconfident, and that's exactly what we expect here. SMU has played an extremely easy schedule with the only two quality teams they played being TCU and Texas A&M, a 46-14 season opening loss. SMU has never been good in the role of home favorite posting a 2-12 spread record the past 4+ seasons. Sure this is a huge game for SMU as they look to avenge a loss in the Conference Championship game, but that's already factored into this number. While the Mustangs have that motivation they have yet to solve this UCF defense. We will back the better stop unit catching points with a running game that's just starting to blossom. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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10-14-11 | Hawaii v. San Jose State +6.5 | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show | |
Hawaii at San Jose State
Hawaii struggled in their first two road games at Washington and UNLV. The loss to the Rebels was especially frustrating as UNLV hasn't come within 20 points of any other opponent. But the Warriors rebounded the next two games with victories over UC Davis and Louisiana Tech, holding a +5 turnover margin in those two games. While on paper this Hawaii offense looks as potent as a year ago we're not so sure. They are very young and inexperienced on the offensive line and lately injuries are becoming a concern. If they can't protect Bryant Moniz this offense becomes much less dynamic. They are off a bye so they may become healthier but they are coming off two very satisfying wins, and they have beaten San Jose State in 9 of the last 10 meetings. San Jose State is looking to avenge a 41-7 loss last year on the road. But they have played the Warriors much tougher in this building. The last four meetings in San Jose have been decided by 7 in overtime, 7 in overtime, 7 and 3 points. All games went down to the last possession. We see a similar outcome here as despite a 2-4 record this is an improving team. The Spartans losses this season came against Stanford, UCLA, Nevada and BYU. Other than the Stanford game San Jose State was in every other contest and cashed in every instance. The team held out starting running back Brandon Rutley last week in anticipation of this league contest, he will be a game time decision. But even in his absence freshman Tyler Ervin was impressive against BYU. Hawaii is a young team that only returned 9 starters from a year ago. Not sure they can be expected to not only win and cover on the road. The last time they were in this role they failed to cover by 37 1/2 points at UNLV. San Jose State on the other hand returned 18 starters and are an undervalued commodity. Coming into this season they had posted a spread record of 6-17-1 the past two seasons. Already 4-2 ATS this season with one of those losses by 1/2 a point shows that this is a team on the rise. The last four meetings here went down to the wire, we expect the same conclusion here. PLAY SAN JOSE STATE |
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10-13-11 | San Diego State +7 v. Air Force | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
San Diego State at Air Force
The Aztecs have held their own defensively this season holding every opponent to 28 points or less and that includes the talented offenses of Washington State and Michigan. After facing two primarily running teams the last two games with the Wolverines and the Horned Frogs the Aztecs should be well prepared for the Air Force option, especially considering they had a bye just two weeks ago. Rocky Long has been a tremendous conference road dog dating back to 2000 while at New Mexico, his teams have cashed 17 of 27 in that role. Even the last two years under Brady Hoke the Aztecs were at their best catching points on the conference road with a 4-1 spread mark. After facing the defenses of Michigan and TCU, San Diego State should have a breakout offensive game against an Air Force squad that has been a sieve defensively. Keep in mind this team put up 49, 23 and 42 points the first three games of the season. Air Force has played three FBS squads this season allowing 35, 34 and 59 points. That's not the type of numbers you want from a touchdown favorite. This is also a sandwich game for the Falcons who are off Navy and Notre Dame with Boise State on deck. While it's doubtful the Cadets will look past a nationally televised conference affair, it's obvious that this game surrounds more important contests. Air Force is on a 1-6 spread run as a home favorite including non-covering wins over FCS entrants South Dakota and Tennessee State. After winning 9,8,8 and 9 games the previous four seasons it's obvious that the Falcons are a bit down this year. They own just one FBS victory and that game was settled in overtime against Navy. Overall 6 of the last 10 meetings in this series have been outright upsets, not sure we won't see another here. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE |
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10-08-11 | Auburn v. Arkansas -10 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 77 h 22 m | Show |
347/348 Auburn at Arkansas
The Tigers are coming off a huge victory last week at South Carolina where color blind Cocks QB Stephen Garcia virtually gift-wrapped the game for Auburn. After a four interception game we expect the Tigers to regress here as they play their second of four straight brutal SEC contests. Auburn has yet to lose the turnover battle in any game this season yet they are just 2-3 ATS. That's very important as no team was expected to fall further than the defending national champions. Keep in mind they returned just six starters and struggled against the likes of Utah State and Florida Atlantic. Now the Tigers must face Arkansas without their two most productive receivers who are listed as all but out this Saturday. In order to beat Arkansas you need to outscore them, and after posting point totals of 16 against South Carolina and 24 against Clemson, we doubt Auburn has the fire power to keep this one close. Arkansas is off back to back games against Alabama and Texas A&M with a bye on deck. They played the little sisters of the poor their first three games but showed pretty well the last two weeks stepping up in class. As opposed to Auburn, Arkansas has only won the turnover battle once all season yet they stand at a profitable 3-2 ATS. The Razorbacks have also beaten Auburn in 2 of the last 3 meetings including a 44-23 underdog victory here the last time these two met in Fayetteville. Arkansas was dominated across the lines against a physical Alabama squad but they won't be at a disadvantage here against an Auburn team that simply isn't overwhelming in the trenches. The Razorbacks have the far superior skill position players and they will be stepping down in class after the last two weeks. Under Bobby Petrino the Razorbacks are a solid 11-4-1 the past 2+ seasons in Razorback Stadium. We expect a strong showing from the host here. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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10-08-11 | Arizona State v. Utah +3 | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 28 m | Show | |
337/338 Arizona State at Utah
On the surface the Sun Devils look to be off of back to back strong outings against USC and Oregon State. But upon closer inspection we find Arizona State to be a bit overrated coming into this game. Against USC they took advantage of a +4 turnover margin to win going away and last week they beat what is clearly the weakest team in the conference in the Beavers. Despite a turnover edge they failed to cover against Oregon State. This is just the second road game of the season for the Sun Devils who lost at Illinois 17-14. Despite a solid 4-1 straight up mark they are just 1-4 ATS on the season. Arizona State went all last year without being road favorites and now they are put in that role off satisfying back to back wins while Utah is off a very rare home loss. Utah is now 23-2 straight up in Rice-Eccles Stadium including outright wins over five Top 20 teams the last 4+ seasons. They came out last week very overconfident, as we expected after blowing out in-state rival BYU 54-10 and having the following week off. After two weeks of being patted on the back for crushing their biggest rival the Utes came out flat last week against Washington. Now off an embarrassing loss we get Utah at home knowing they are 5-1 ATS as a home dog in the Kyle Whittingham era. Jordan Wynn was knocked out of the game last week but back-up QB Jon Hayes played strong in his absence. Wynn hurt his shoulder last year and word is he never truly recovered. It's telling that Vegas didn't keep the game off the board awaiting his injury news, as the change at quarterback can be nothing but a positive for Utah. It's bounce-back time for the Utes as they take advantage of an overrated Sun Devil squad on a strong home field. PLAY UTAH |
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10-08-11 | Florida +14.5 v. LSU | 11-41 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 16 m | Show | |
389/390 Florida at LSU
The line has jumped up to the two touchdown range with the news that Florida starting QB Brantley will be out for this game. That has moved the line well beyond the value point for Gators backers. Keep in mind that the last two years Brantley has a touchdown to interception ratio of 14-13. A likely freshman quarterback making his first start can't be that much of a drop-off. Keep in mind that Florida recruits some of the most talented signal callers in the nation. We also get pointspread value as Florida is off a nationally televised blowout loss against Alabama, while LSU has dominated as of late in front of a national audience. Keep in mind this is still the Florida Gators, a team that is 8-2 ATS off a straight up loss. The Gators are also a solid 6-1 ATS as a conference road dog. Because these teams are made up of the best athletes in the country they have the ability to win on the road, which is why the SEC as a group has the lowest home field advantage in college football. LSU has never fared well in this role. Now 3-17 ATS as a conference home favorite under Les Miles. They are also 1-13 ATS laying double digits at home in conference play. This stop unit has gotten a ton of national publicity as of late for good reason but the last time they played a fast opponent they allowed 27 points in the opener to Oregon. No doubt about it LSU is good, but they are an overvalued commodity right now while Florida without their starting QB is undervalued. We step in and take the more than generous points with a capable Florida team reeling from a lopsided loss. PLAY FLORIDA |
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10-08-11 | Temple -9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 42-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 31 m | Show |
335/336 Temple at Ball State
Temple has proven themselves as a true contender in the MAC after giving Penn State and Maryland all they could handle in back to back weeks. They suffered a letdown last week hosting a very good Toledo squad as turnovers did them in. Now 11-3 ATS on the road we look for a big bounce-back from the Owls here. Coach Addazio was furious after the game saying his team totally got away from what his team is, and that they would surely pay all week at practice. He said he would guarantee that his team would be "pissed off" and ready to take out some frustrations on Saturday. Ball State is off a humiliating 62-6 loss at Oklahoma now they return home to face the power rushing MAC squads of Temple and Ohio U in back to back weekends. Under Pete Lembo the Cards are now 1-8 ATS in conference home games after struggling against Buffalo here in their MAC opener. Keep in mind that twice last year as double digit home favorites this team was forced to go to overtime against Eastern Michigan and Akron, the two worst teams in this conference. Now 2-11 ATS overall under Lembo at Scheumann Stadium the Cards look to be in for a long day with a fired up Temple squad looking to take no prisoners. PLAY TEMPLE |
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10-01-11 | Hawaii +4.5 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 44-26 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
173/174 Hawaii at Louisiana Tech
The last time the Warriors visited the mainland they were embarrassed at UNLV as a 19 point favorite 40-20. The prior visit the Warriors fell at Washington 40-32 failing to get the cash. This is a team that has had success on the road against lesser squads but struggles in the road dog role. Hawaii is now 9-14 ATS catching points on the road. Considering they they are an amazing 77-63 ATS overall the last decade you can really tell that the Warriors struggle in this role. Hawaii simply doesn't have the talent at the skill positions that they have had in the past. Bryant Moniz is still solid while throwing just a single pick in four games but this team lacks the explosiveness of prior versions. Defensively Hawaii has permitted 40 points in each of their road games to offensively challenged clubs Washington and UNLV. Hawaii has really struggled at this location over the years as Ruston isn't an easy travel location. Louisiana Tech may come into this match-up at just 1-3 but they have faced three teams that are better than anything the Warriors have fought with. The Bulldogs came within two points of Southern Miss in Hattiesburg, they took fringe Top 25 opponent Houston to the wire here in a 35-34 loss, and then last week they took a solid SEC opponent to overtime at Mississippi State. This is a team that is hiding in the weeds and ready to pound a team of this quality. The last three times the Bulldogs hosted Hawaii not only did they cash the tickets but they did so by a combined 71 points! These games have not even been close as it's been very clear that Hawaii simply struggles in Ruston. With Louisiana Tech stepping down in class we look for the host to take advantage of a sizable location edge and win this one going away. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH |
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10-01-11 | Idaho v. Virginia -16 | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 25 m | Show | |
123/124 Idaho at Virginia
Tough spot for the Vandals who opened up conference action last week in a 48-24 loss to Fresno State. They had that game circled as the Bulldog's scored with 13 seconds left the prior year knocking Idaho out of bowl contention. They were completely outplayed in that game and now must travel all the way to the east coast to face Virginia in a non-conference affair before hosting league rival Louisiana Tech next week. If Idaho falls behind early this week we can see Robb Akey giving playing time to his younger players. Off a straight up loss Akey is now 10-21 ATS at Idaho. The Vandals have been a bit fortunate thus far facing a Bowling Green team that traveled a long way to get to Moscow only to see the Falcons pound the Vandals 32-15. Against Texas A&M the Aggies had a huge game on deck against Oklahoma State and the Vandals still lost by 30 even with a turnover advantage of two. Last week they faced Fresno State with the Bulldogs hosting SEC squad Mississippi this week. Now they take on a Virginia team off back to back losses with a bye on deck. Virginia is a much better team this year than their record would indicate. They are only 2-2 but they lost to North Carolina by 11 and Southern Miss by 6. They had a -2 turnover differential in both those games. While rarely a chalk of this magnitude the Cavaliers have held their own as a sizable home favorite as of late. They beat a good William & Mary team by 37 here to open the season as an 8 point choice. Last year they beat Eastern Michigan by 27 laying 24 and VMI by 41 getting a push against the number. Virginia has thrown seven interceptions the past three games but they won't have to rely on the passing game here. The Cavaliers simply should be able to dominate in the trenches and grind out a spread covering victory, extending in the second half. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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10-01-11 | Arizona v. USC UNDER 57 | 41-48 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
161/162 Arizona at USC
Big step down defensively for the Wildcats after facing Oklahoma State, Oregon and Stanford. USC has been held to 23 points or less in 3 of 4 games with 38 hosting Syracuse being the only offensive success. The Orangemen had to travel the entire length of the country for that payday. Series history shows point totals of 45, 38, 27, 33 and 23 points the last five meetings. USC lost the football four times last week so we expect Lane Kiffin to feature the run this week in order to lessen turnovers, but to also keep talented Arizona QB Foles on the sideline. Arizona was held to 14 at Oklahoma State and 10 hosting Stanford. They haven't scored more than 21 points in any of the last eight meetings with the Trojans. We look for history to repeat itself here as this game stays comfortably under the posted total. PLAY UNDER |
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10-01-11 | Georgia Tech -10 v. North Carolina State | Top | 45-35 | Push | 0 | 48 h 14 m | Show |
131/132 Georgia Tech at NC State
The Techsters are now 25-12 ATS on the road dating back to 2004. Because of their running style with coach Paul Johnson they limit turnovers which is a major key in winning football games. Georgia Tech is 4-0 SU & ATS on the season and they have yet to lose the turnover battle in any game. It's very likely that they have another edge in that department here as this team is blocking like a machine offensively. A highly productive machine at that. After scoring 63, 49, 66 and 35 points so far this season we expect another offensive explosion from the Yellow Jackets. Coach O'Brien's club held the Jackets somewhat in check in last year's 45-28 road upset win in Atlanta. But we can't count on that happening again as this defense is in shambles. Four more players from that defense will be out this week and now only one defensive starter remains at his original position from the team that started the year. Off an embarrassing 30 point loss on national television against Cincinnati things are only getting worse for the Wolfpack. Despite a 2-2 record coming into play this week the Wolfpack are winless ATS, failing to cover the number by 42 points. When you are losing to the number by double digits per game and you can't field a defense with enough healthy bodies to face an offensive system you only see one time a year, we want no part of this home dog. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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10-01-11 | Arizona +12.5 v. USC | Top | 41-48 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
161/162 Arizona at USC
The Arizona Wildcats just faced possibly the three most explosive offenses in college football, Oklahoma State, Stanford and Oregon. All three of those games were seen by a majority of the country and in all three games the Wildcats were beaten to the tune of 75 combined points. Therefore nobody wants anything to do with Arizona in this game. If you've followed our analysis over the years you know that is exactly the time we want this ugly dog. Keep in mind that just three weeks ago the Wildcats were a 14 point underdog in Stillwater against the highly ranked Cowboys, now they are receiving virtually the exact same number from a USC team that has problems of their own. The last four times these two clubs met up the final verdict was 7 points or less each time with Arizona cashing three of those meetings. Nick Foles could very well be the best quarterback in the country that isn't in the national spotlight. Despite being forced to throw from behind he has an amazing 10-0 touchdown to turnover margin. Last year he posted a 20-10 margin with 71% completions, he simply knows how to play. USC is battling injuries to many of their rotational players which makes this team a questionable favorite. Now on a 4-8 home favorite spread run the Trojans are not a team we feel comfortable laying points with. Off a game in which they lost the turnover battle 4-0 we expect USC to try to keep Foles off the field by rushing the football and playing a ball control game. Last week they were lit up by the Sun Devils for 43 points which was almost as much as they permitted the first three weeks. With the game being shortened and Arizona really stepping down in class defensively this week the high number here puts us clearly on the Underdog. PLAY ARIZONA |
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09-29-11 | Houston v. UTEP +17 | 49-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
103/104 Houston at UTEP
Under Kevin Sumlin the Cougars have struggled in the role of road favorite posting a 3-11 spread mark. Just two weeks ago they traveled to Louisiana Tech and escaped with a 35-34 straight up non-covering victory. Houston has dropped 4 of 5 meetings in El Paso straight up with the lone victory coming by just 3 points in 2007. The offense is solid as always as Case Keenum has been in a Cougar uniform for is seems forever. But we have real concerns about this defense which yielded 34 to UCLA, 23 to North Texas and 34 to Louisiana Tech, all teams with offensive liabilities. You don't want to lay this type of number on the road with a weak defense which has been a problem for Sumlin since he got here. With a major game on deck against East Carolina we can see the Cougars lack of focus since they beat the Miners 54-24 at home last year. UTEP is more of a pro style offense this year which means more huddles and more runs. That shortens the game and makes these points even more valuable. Trevor Vittatoe finally moved on and now the Miners have two lesser known equal quarterbacks to share the load. Last week UTEP was dominated on the line of scrimmage against the physical South Florida Bulls, but that won't be the case here. This is also the right role for the Miners who are 9-4 ATS as a home dog under Mike Price, including 7-2 ATS in Conference USA action. The last three years UTEP has only lost two home games by more than 10 points and both those games came against ranked opponents from the Big 12. While we like this Houston team this simply isn't the spot to back them. You take em points! PLAY UTEP |
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09-24-11 | Vanderbilt +15.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 3-21 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 32 m | Show |
363/364 Vanderbilt at South Carolina
The Commodores were making solid strides under Bobby Johnson heading into 2009 when injuries took a toll on the team in a 2-10 season. Right before the 2010 season was to get underway Johnson abruptly quit the program which left Robbie Caldwell to piece together some semblance of a team, it didn't work as another 2-10 season followed. But now the Commodores are back on solid ground with the hiring of James Franklin. Through three games Vanderbilt had already tasted victory more than they had in either of the previous seasons and they started league play with a convincing 30-7 win over Mississippi last week. This is a team that returned 19 starters including QB Larry Smith. Vanderbilt despite a subpar history has played the Gamecocks very well, especially in Columbia. The last four visits have resulted a 17-6 outright victory in 2007 along with respectable losses by 4, 7 and 11 points. Until last years unstable situation Vanderbilt had cashed to the tune of 20-5-1 ATS as a road underdog. Under Franklin who is known as an excellent recruiter we expect that to continue. With a bye next week we look for another solid effort from the Commodores here. We went against the Gamecocks last week with a strong play on Navy and we were rewarded with a wire to wire spread covering win. South Carolina hasn't yielded more than 23.5 ppg in any of the last seven seasons but we have serious doubts about that streak continuing. So far this year they permitted 37 to East Carolina, 42 to Georgia and 21 last week to Navy. This is the 2nd of 4 straight home games for South Carolina with revenge games each of the next two weeks against Auburn and Kentucky. While we're sure Spurrier wasn't happy with the team's play last week, we're not so sure that he has the horses to dominate an SEC squad. After all they trailed East Carolina badly in the opener and traded leads with Georgia the entire game. The dog in this series has cashed 8 of the last 9 meetings and Vanderbilt looks like a strong bet to continue that trend. PLAY VANDERBILT |
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09-24-11 | Temple +9 v. Maryland | 38-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 30 m | Show | |
325/326 Temple at Maryland
Owls are now 6-1 ATS on the road in non-conference affairs and 12-1 ATS overall against non-MAC competition. Last week Temple had the lead and was in Penn State territory late in the game before the favored Nittany Lions grabbed the outright victory. This is a hard nosed team that is solid defensively and doesn't turn the ball over, an excellent combination for an underdog in this price range. Temple has permitted 7, 3 and 14 points in three games this season and they held the opposition to 24 points or less in 8 of 12 games a season ago. Temple doesn't force passes in the air attack and they run the ball extremely well with a strong stable of backs. They rotate quarterbacks with both having success running the football. More rushes and less passes are always a good thing with underdogs in this price range. Temple does host conference rival Toledo next week but the Owls are 8-1 ATS facing non-conference opposition before a MAC game, so no lookahead here. As for a letdown after playing Penn State, Temple is 3-0-1 ATS the following week the last four seasons. Maryland starts two freshmen along the defensive line which could be a big problem against this physical Temple offensive. The Terps have speed but are a small defense so Maryland could very well wilt defensively as this game progresses, which leaves a back door cover a distinct possibility. Keep in mind that the Terrapins allowed a short handed Miami team to score 24 while permitting West Virginia 37 last week. Danny O'Brien is a talented quarterback but once again Maryland will be without their best two wideouts who have been suspended. The Terps went from 2 wins in 2009 to 9 last season. The +15 turnover margin was a major reason. We're looking to play against Maryland any chance we get this season and we start that philosophy on Saturday. PLAY TEMPLE |
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09-24-11 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
345/346 North Carolina at Georgia Tech
North Carolina is in a strong role as they are 6-2 ATS as road underdogs. Always like to take the better defensive team getting points and the Tar Heels have shown the ability to slow down this potent Yellow Jacket offense. The last five years these two have tangled and Georgia Tech has averaged just 19 points per game. Considering that overall the Yellow Jackets have averaged over 27 ppg that's a solid accomplishment. North Carolina is 3-0 on the season and the only thing that has slowed down this scoring offense has been mistakes. They own a -4 turnover margin which isn't indicative of the talent on this team. North Carolina has held James Madison, Rutgers and Virginia to a total of 49 points. It's a much tougher schedule to the one faced by their opponent. Georgia Tech went head to head with Western Carolina, Middle Tennessee and Kansas. Georgia Tech is known primarily for their rushing prowess but this season they have had great success in the passing game. That said, they have yet to play any team that you could even consider average defensively. Last year Georgia Tech managed just 76 yards through the air and we don't expect that number to be much higher. Overall these are two teams we are looking to back this season but we were really surprised this line came out so high. We have the Tar Heels rated as a slightly better team yet they are a touchdown underdog. Better team, extra points and the much better defense. That's a combination we'll go to war with every time. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-22-11 | North Carolina State +8 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-44 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
NC State at Cincinnati
The Bearcats have a reputation of beating up the little guy but struggling when stepping up in class. Last year as a double digit favorite they beat Indiana State by 33, Miami Ohio by 42 and Rutgers by 31. This season has been no different with a 62 point win over Austin Peay and a 45 point victory last week over Akron. Cincinnati is just 1-10 ATS when the game is lined in single digits. That is to say, in what is considered a competitive game the Bearcats underperform. Two weeks ago Cincinnati took money in their trip to Tennessee and they were dominated by the Volunteers 45-23 despite a two turnover advantage. Last year the Bearcats went into NC State and dropped a 30-19 decision as a 2 point underdog despite winning the turnover battle. Special teams were a big reason they lost last year and the Wolfpack have a huge edge in that regard here. Cincinnati had a terrific kicker a season ago in Jacob Rogers and his graduation has left a sizable void for the Bearcats, not only in his field goal kicking but in his kickoff placement. NC State will once again have a huge edge in special teams Thursday night. NC State has some injury concerns in the defense as three projected starters are out this week. While that is definitely a concern we like the job Mike Glennon has done since taking over for Wisconsin transfer Russell Wilson at quarterback. The Wolfpack have now gone 16 straight games without losing by more than a touchdown. Unlike the Bearcats they cash in competitive games going 8-4 ATS in games with a single digit pointspread. They are also a very solid 12-6 ATS under Tom O'Brien as a road underdog. If you remember back to O'Brien's reign at Boston College his teams were 6-1 ATS his last four years in the road dog role. NC State struggled at Wake Forest in their only other road game but we feel the Demon Deacons are one of the most underrated clubs in college football. With Cincinnati's failures in stepping up in class and O'Brien's ability to get the best out of his clubs in this role we really like the points here in this nationally televised battle. PLAY NC STATE |
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09-17-11 | Navy +17 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 37 m | Show |
153/154 Navy at South Carolina
There is plenty of value taking teams who don't turn the ball over when playing on the road. Last year Navy only lost the turnover battle 2 of 8 games in neutral or road venues. In fact, the past 3+ seasons the Midshipmen have a +34 turnover differential. Going back the past 9+ years Navy is now 23-9 ATS as a road underdog. It makes a great deal of sense yet they continue to cash as the betting public ignores the fact that this isn't your typical road team. Football is just a minor part of what these men have to endure and their maturity definitely shows. Navy has lost just one game by more than this spread in the last 3+ seasons. That includes games against Notre Dame 3 times, East Carolina, Ohio State, Pittsburgh twice, Hawaii and Rutgers. They will not be intimidated playing in SEC country. South Carolina is coming off what could be their most important game of the year in a back and forth 45-42 victory over Georgia. They along with the Bulldogs are considered the top contenders in their division. Next week they return to conference action to take on an improved Vanderbilt team followed by defending National Champion Auburn. So not only is this a sandwich affair for Steve Spurrier's crew but they must prepare for an option type of offense they rarely see. You know they didn't spend a great deal of practice before the season on Navy, especially with their two tough opponents to open up the season. Both East Carolina and Georgia went bowling last year. So basically they have one week to get ready for the Midshipmen, off their must win game over the Bulldogs. We just can't see South Carolina dominating this game especially when you consider that they are not a team that wins the turnover battle on a regular basis. The last five seasons South Carolina has never ended the year with a turnover advantage. That's actually pretty amazing when you consider they play non-conference cupcakes like Furman, Florida Atlantic and Wofford. This is simply too many points to give a club that won't beat itself, and the letdown for South Carolina has to be a factor. PLAY NAVY |
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09-17-11 | Nevada -6.5 v. San Jose State | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 42 m | Show |
149/150 Nevada at San Jose State
Last week we went against Nevada against Oregon and we easily cashed with a fired up favorite. This week we take advantage of public perception and back the road favorite Wolf Pack. Nevada has posted six straight winning seasons and they are in the middle of a brutal schedule. Not only are they off Oregon but after this week's game they go to Texas Tech and Boise State before facing in-state rival UNLV at home. Starting with four straight road games including Oregon, Texas Tech and Boise should definitely prepare the Wolf Pack for WAC play. Chris Ault is now in his 27th season at Nevada and if anyone knows how to prepare his team for this rough slate he does. From a player perspective off an embarrassment at Oregon and with two very tough road games ahead this is an early must win game for the Wolf Pack. The players were very upset with their play last week and that's the type of team we want to back especially against a team they have dominated. Nevada has beaten San Jose State by margins of 22, 55 and 24 points the last three years. While Kaepernick and Taua are gone we are not looking at a -37 1/2 number this team laid to the Spartans last year. San Jose State is off back to back road games in Pac 12 country as they dropped 54 and 10 point decisions to Stanford and UCLA. The Spartans have a very weak home field advantage which is one reason why they are 3-6 ATS catching points here the past three seasons. Their only home win a season ago was a 16-11 victory over Southern Utah. They lost here to the likes of UC Davis and Utah State. This is a team that has won three games the past 2+ seasons and has shown no signs of a turnaround under Mike MacIntyre. There is simply a class difference with these two programs and the Wolf Pack have the talent to run it up. After facing the speed of Oregon last week the Spartans will look like a slow motion train the Wolf Pack are looking to ride. PLAY NEVADA |
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09-17-11 | Eastern Michigan v. Michigan -28.5 | 3-31 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
117/118 Eastern Michigan at Michigan
One of our favorite handicapping angles comes into play in this game. Eastern Michigan just beat Howard 41-9 and Alabama State 14-7, now they step way up in class on the road to play Michigan. Keep in mind that this is a team that had won just two games in the Ron English era heading into this season. They beat Ball State in overtime by 3 points and Buffalo by 4 points. Now off back to back wins over weak programs they take on a very much improved Michigan team. The last three years on the road against automatic qualifying FBS conferences the Eagles have lost by 27, 45, 53, 36, 28, 3, 27 and 32 points. That's 1-6-1 ATS when stepping up in class. And each of those games were proceeded by much better opponents than what Eastern Michigan has played this season. Michigan is off a huge come from behind win over Notre Dame 35-31 last weekend. While we will admit that this could be a letdown spot for the Wolverines we feel that adjustment has already been factored into the line. Besides, this is a team that has gone 15-22 the past three seasons so we don't feel that they will letdown in this situation. In fact, Michigan is 5-1 ATS the last six years after playing Notre Dame with the lone non-cover coming last year against FCS entrant Massachusetts. With a non-conference game with San Diego State on deck there is no look ahead for the Wolverines. Last week in our play on Oregon over Nevada we talked about the huge speed adjustment the Wolf Pack were about to endure, the same can be said about the Eagles here. This Michigan team not only has far superior speed to either of the Eastern Michigan opponents they have faced but they will also be much bigger and stronger. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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09-16-11 | Boise State -20 v. Toledo | 40-15 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show | |
103/104 Boise State at Toledo
Boise State gets much of their hype from their Blue Turf in Boise, but the value in betting this team is clearly on the road. The last three seasons the Broncos are 13-4 ATS away from home with 12 of those 13 games resulting in straight up wins. After dominating Georgia in Atlanta in week one the Broncos had a bye last week. With only Tulsa on deck at home next week there is no looking past the improved Rockets. Chris Peterson is terrific when given extra time to prepare. In his six years in Idaho Boise State is 3-1 ATS in season openers and 4-1 ATS in bowl games. Because the Broncos have what many consider a weak schedule from here on out they need to look especially impressive when playing in front of the National TV cameras. Boise State beat Toledo last year 57-14 at home as a favorite of 38 1/2 points. Now they are laying as of this writing 18 1/2 points less with the change in location. That's way too much value to not play the Broncos here. Keep in mind that only once last year were they favored by 20 points or less on the road, and now to do so against a MAC school is even more ridiculous. In our opinion Boise State and Alabama are the two best teams in the country. If the Tide or for that matter Oklahoma were playing this week at Toledo do you really think they would be only a 20 point favorite? No doubt about it Toledo is one of the best teams in the MAC. But keep in mind that they are off a shutout revenge affair with Ohio State, the holy grail for other Ohio football programs. They gave the Buckeyes all they could handle last Saturday in a 27-22 Ohio State victory, but it was clear Ohio State was looking past that in-state game towards the beaches of Miami Florida this week. For all Toledo has accomplished under Tim Beckman they are just 7-4 straight up at home in his tenure. They do return 18 starters from a season ago but they only played three quality opponents the last two years, Boise State, Ohio State and Arizona. They were outscored in those games by a combined margin of 136-16. So we're taking last week's game against the short handed Buckeyes with a grain of salt. Yes Toledo is a better club than what they had the past two seasons, but have they really made up enough ground to stay within 20 of the Broncos. We seriously doubt it. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-15-11 | LSU -3.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 19-6 | Win | 100 | 55 h 55 m | Show |
101/102 LSU at Mississippi State
Short preparation for both of these teams this week but the Tigers had a semi bye as they faced Northwestern State as a 48 point favorite, while the Bulldogs had a conference battle with defending National Champion Auburn. LSU showed their speed on defense against Oregon in opening week action and the offense put the ball in the air with a lot of success. We knew the Tigers could run the ball, but with Jarrett Lee behind center coach Miles opened up the offensive passing playbook. We expect to see more of that on Thursday as the Tigers look to continue their fast start. In his seven years in Baton Rouge Les Miles has posted an 8-5-1 ATS mark as a conference road favorite. His teams are 34-16 straight up in SEC action. The better the conference the less home field advantage exists and Miles' clubs are an excellent proposition on the road. This is a team that doesn't get rattled, and they have already shown their mettle against the team that played in the National Championship a year ago in their 40-27 win over Oregon. With a non-conference affair against West Virginia on deck, the Bulldogs have their full attention. Mississippi State is an overrated club in our eyes. They blew out a Memphis team in week one, the same Tiger squad that lost last week to a Sun Belt team by 44 points. Last week they came up a yard short to an Auburn squad who is returning just 6 players and struggled to beat a WAC school the previous week. The Bulldogs don't own a very strong home field advantage as this club is just 20-31 ATS at home the past nine seasons. The only quality team they beat at home last year was Georgia and that team underperformed all season. The Bulldogs have not fared well in this series losing 18 of the last 19 meetings in straight up fashion, while cashing just 4 of those 19 games. Mississippi State won 4 games in 2008 and 5 in 2009, after winning 9 games last season we expect a regression for Mississippi State this season. You rarely see teams make a permanent climb in the SEC, sure you have your one year spikes but overall the best teams win each and every year. We're pretty confident that the Bulldogs are a few years away from the Alabama's and LSU's of this conference. This number is much too short considering talent and past history. Keep in mind the last time LSU played here they were favored by 12 points. The gap between these two programs hasn't narrowed by nearly that much. PLAY LSU |
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09-10-11 | Notre Dame -3 v. Michigan | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
375/376 Notre Dame at Michigan
Rule number one in week two college football betting is don't overreact. About two months ago while I was betting the opening numbers from the Golden Nugget Casino, myself and a few highly regarded sports betting minds pounded Notre Dame in this match-up. It was a play on Notre Dame and a play against Michigan. The line went up as high as 4 1/2 before the betting stopped. Now after week one the line is down to -3 and possibly dropping. Why? An obvious overcorrection in the betting marketplace. Notre Dame was involved in an on again off again situation last week because of terrible storms in the area, as a matter of fact Michigan was affected by the same storm. So the outcome of those games has to be taken with a grain of salt, because it was a situation I'm sure neither team had ever been through before. That said, the Irish lost to South Florida in a game they totally dominated. They doubled the Bulls yardage wise but had an amazing -5 turnover disadvantage. How many times do you see a 10 point favorite lose the turnover battle by 5 and still only lose the game by a field goal. That shows you just how talented this Notre Dame team is. Michigan on the other hand had a 3 turnover advantage against a team from the MAC, a much weaker squad than the one the Irish faced. So their rain shortened 24 point victory was less impressive. Michigan has a new coach and new coordinators and while I do believe they will improve as the season goes on, they are really stepping up in class here. As much as we like Brady Hoke we like Brian Kelly even better. Maybe it's because in his time at Central Michigan, Cincinnati and Notre Dame he has made us a great deal of money. Want an example of how good a coach Kelly is? How bout since 2005 his teams are 24-11-1 ATS on the road. Want more? How bout 14-5 ATS off a loss. We took the +1 and P on the Irish when this game opened and we still like them at the current price. Betting on talented teams off a terrible game has tremendous value, doing so in week 2 is even more extreme. PLAY NOTRE DAME |
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09-10-11 | Tulsa -13 v. Tulane | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 69 h 25 m | Show | |
327/328 Tulsa at Tulane
Three of the last four seasons the Golden Hurricane have won 10 or more games. New head coach Bill Blankenship is well aware of the treacherous schedule his team has to encounter to open up his first season at the helm. They just played #1 Oklahoma with games against Oklahoma State and Boise State on deck. In the middle of this murderers row sits the lowly Tulane Green Wave. The same Green Wave team that the Golden Hurricane have beaten by margins of 28, 24, 49, 24, 35 and 24 points the past six seasons. Tulsa not only won in impressive fashion each time, they covered the spread by a combined 84 points! In conference action the past eight seasons Tulsa is 43-24 ATS. This is a team that takes these games seriously and off a 33 point beat down last week we expect the Hurricane to be a category 5 this week. Tulane beat FCS entrant SE Louisiana last week 47-33. So the Green Wave go from a pedestrian FCS opponent to a league power in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane on the other hand just played the speed of Oklahoma and now step way down in class this week. For those looking to support Tulane with a home dog angle there simply isn't one as they are just 6-16-1 catching points at home. To make matters worse for the host they lost their best wide receiver to injury last week. This is a team with little depth that has folded on a regular basis when the inevitable injury bug hits. Tulane is 4-14 ATS off a win while Tulsa is looking to build team confidence before hosting the Cowboys next week. This one could get ugly in a hurry. PLAY TULSA |
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09-10-11 | Nevada v. Oregon -26.5 | 20-69 | Win | 100 | 52 h 11 m | Show | |
335/336 Nevada at Oregon
Head coach Chris Ault for the first time in quite some time has a major rebuilding job ahead of him. Last year the Wolf Pack won 13 games, four more than any other Nevada team in over a decade. That club averaged 41.0 points which was the most since 1996. By far the two most important cogs of that offense, QB Colin Kaepernick and RB Vai Taua are gone. Both moving up in class to play in the NFC West. That's 2929 yards of rushing and 3022 yards of passing gone in one graduation class. Now after three seasons of Kaepernick at the helm the Wolf Pack bring back just five offensive starters. Needless to say this will be a huge drop-off in scoring for Nevada. While they bring back seven starters on defense the 21.4 ppg allowed last year was a full 7.1 ppg improvement over the previous season. It's been 20 years since Ault and the Wolf Pack had that type of stop unit. That will surely regress back to previous 30 ppg levels. It's said by just about every coach out there that the biggest improvement for a team happens after the first game of the season. Well Nevada had a bye last week. Yes, they not only open up the season a week later but they do so against a team that played for the National Championship last year and were thoroughly embarrassed on National Television last weekend. Nevada hasn't fared well when stepping up in class. While we all remember their shocking OT win over Boise State last year, that was simply an aberration. The last six years Nevada has gone to a bowl, they have failed to cover 5 of those 6 games. The lone spread cover was in 2006 against Miami Florida in the MPC Computer Bowl. If you remember back then the Miami players were extremely disappointed with the bowl selection as they had to fly into Boise Idaho and face Nevada on the blue turf. The Wolf Pack playing in the WAC were very familiar with the venue and had a strong outpouring of support. Nevada lost that game 21-20 catching 3 1/2 points. So in reality the lone bowl cover came under opportune circumstances. Against ranked teams in regular season action Nevada is 3-7 ATS the past five seasons. The final score last week showed LSU beating Oregon 40-27 but turnovers in this game were the key. The Tigers had a three turnover edge last week which basically gift-wrapped the LSU victory. Oregon went all last season without a turnover disadvantage of that magnitude. In fact the Ducks had a plus 63 turnover advantage the past 12 years going into that contest. Oregon is 25-18 ATS against non-conference opposition. As a favorite of 20+ they are 7-1 ATS the past three seasons. Off an embarrassing loss and a huge drop in the polls we expect these Ducks to be a fired up bunch. With only Missouri State on deck the Wolf Pack has the full attention of this angry favorite. PLAY OREGON |
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09-10-11 | Rutgers v. North Carolina -10 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 37 m | Show | |
319/320 Rutgers at North Carolina
Rutgers was outscored by 5.7 points per game last year in a 4-8 season. While many expect Greg Schiano to rebound this year we feel it will be more of the same in New Brunswick. The defense brings back just five starters and the starting cornerback tandem has just four combined starts between them. The running game that was so strong in the past with Brian Leonard (I just like mentioning his name), averaged just 2.7 ypc last season. The Scarlet Knights played four quality teams on the road last year and allowed 35 to West Virginia, 69 to Cincinnati, 28 to South Florida and 41 to Pittsburgh. They should be in for a long game against a big and physical Tar Heel team. North Carolina has a stud in highly touted QB Renner and an experienced offensive line. After averaging just 25.3 ppg a season ago we can see this team blowing past the 30 ppg threshold. Defensively the Tar Heels allowed just 17.1 ppg in 2009 before suspensions decimated the stop unit last year. That said they still held the opposition to 23.2 ppg last season. With those players back for a full season we expect this defense to be one of the best in the country. North Carolina played a very good James Madison team last week and the JMU coach was very impressed. He said North Carolina is the best team by far they have played in years. Keep in mind James Madison beat Virginia Tech in Blacksburg last year when the Hokies were ranked #13 in the nation. PLAY NORTH CAROLINA |
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09-03-11 | Boise State -3 v. Georgia | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show | |
187/188 Boise State at Georgia
When this line came out at the Golden Nugget a long time ago the +6 was quickly grabbed up by the first bettor in line. The line continued to tumble down to +1 1/2 at one point before the Boise backers got involved. The line shot back up to 4 1/2 and has now settled down to +3 which is where it should have been all along. While we are big believers in Georgia this year we still made Boise a higher favorite in this game which is why we weren't running to the window to grab the +6 at the GN when it was originally released. Boise State is always maligned because of their weak schedule, but when they have stepped up in class they have been hugely successful. The Broncos are 11-3 ATS against non-conference opponents the last three seasons, and 67% ATS the last five years against BCS Conferences. In addition, in bowl action the last few years they beat #20 Utah 26-3, beat #3 TCU 17-10, lost but covered against #11 TCU 17-16 and beat #7 Oklahoma 43-42 in overtime. That's 3-1 SU and a perfect 4-0 ATS against Top 20 competition in bowls. This is a team that beat Virginia Tech last year in the opener 33-30 and Oregon in the season lifter in 2009 19-8, both covers. Simply put you don't want to bet against Chris Peterson when he has time to prepare. Boise State is 23-3 straight up under Peterson against non-conference competition, cashing 15 of 22 contests. Boise State has a bye next week while Georgia starts conference play against South Carolina. That scheduling advantage for Boise more than makes up for any home state edge the Bulldogs will have by playing in Atlanta. Looking for a motivation angle for the Broncos? You can look back to the last time they played Georgia. It was in 2005 in the heat and humidity between the hedges. That won't be a concern here in the air conditioned Georgia Dome. We really like the makeup of this Georgia team but they are simply outclassed here. The Bulldogs don't have the edge in the trenches and they lost a huge playmaker at the wide receiver position when AJ Green went to the NFL. If you remember Georgia really struggled last year when he was out of the lineup. Under Richt Georgia has always been a much better pointspread play on the road. In fact, they are 24-32 ATS playing at home. There will be plenty of spots to back this solid Georgia team this season but this is one spot we want nothing to do with them. Speed kills and the Broncos have it. PLAY BOISE STATE |
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09-03-11 | BYU v. Ole Miss +3 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
165/166 BYU at Mississippi
After back to back 9-4 seasons in Houston Nutt's first two years in Oxford the Rebels fell to 4-8 last year and failed to play in the postseason. But Nutt has twice been SEC Coach of the Year and with 13 returning starters we expect the Rebels to be much more competitive this season. Ole Miss is 8-3 ATS vs non-conference foes under Nutt. After losing outright in their home opener last year to Jacksonville State you can bet the team has his attention in this opener. A key for the host will be the humidity factor as BYU doesn't see much of that out west, especially in their old conference the Mountain West. The Rebels bring in their biggest offensive line under Nutt which should provide a good push in the running game. BYU will have a tough time preparing for the Rebel offense because Houston Nutt has delegated the play calling to David Lee who has been a mainstay in the NFL the last few seasons. BYU has faced the SEC three times winning once by only 3 points. The Cougars traveled just twice out on the mountain area last year losing 34-10 at Florida State and 31-3 at TCU. In fact, take a glance at how the Cougars have done traveling against quality teams. Last year they failed to cover by 14 at Florida State and cashed by a single point at TCU. In 2008 they beat Washington by just a single point as an 8 1/2 point favorite, they also failed to cover by 23 at TCU. In 2007 they lost ATS and SU at UCLA and were beaten outright by 8 as a 6 1/2 point favorite at Tulsa. While BYU brings back 15 returning starters the edge they have had in their prior conference was size, they won't have that advantage against an SEC school. The Cougars will have another solid season in their first year as an independent, but with Texas, Utah and Central Florida on deck after this one they could really be behind the eight ball to start the year. MIssissippi coming off a terrible season and with only Southern Illinois on deck have had this game circled all off-season. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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09-03-11 | Troy State +16 v. Clemson | 19-43 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
201/202 Troy at Clemson
The Trojans are known as a live underdog when stepping out of conference but the truth of the matter is that they are just pedestrian. In the last ten years they are 28-28-1 ATS out of conference and 8-6 ATS vs BCS schools. The past two seasons they are 1-3 ATS against the big boys losing to Oklahoma State by 3 , by 45 to South Carolina, by 36 to Arkansas and by 50 to Florida. The only cover was in that Oklahoma State game in the second contest of the year, where the Cowboys started the season with just 8 returning starters. The good news for the Trojans is they return 7 starters on defense from a season ago, the bad news is they allowed over 30 ppg a year ago. What's most troubling for Troy is that a full nine players from the 3 deep are already lost for the season. Troy may be able to handle that attrition in the Sun Belt, but early on they will really struggle when stepping up in class. Clemson has 14 starters returning from their first losing season in over a decade. Of their seven losses five came by 6 points or less. In fact, just once did this team lose by double digits. While an outsider will look at the overall record we know that Clemson outscored the opposition by 5.2 ppg last year and took national champion Auburn to overtime. Simply put this team is much better than their record from a season ago. Troy likes to spread the field with their passing game which is tough to defend, but since this is the opening game the Tigers should be well prepared defensively. By the way, 3 of the starting 4 wideouts for Troy will be making their Trojan debuts. |
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09-02-11 | TCU -3.5 v. Baylor | 48-50 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 36 m | Show | |
145/146 TCU at Baylor
The line continues to drop in this one as the 6 1/2's have turned into 3 1/2's as of this writing. Which puts us solidly on the favorite here. While I traditionally look to play against teams in opening week who lost a quarterback to the NFL, word out of Fort Worth is that Casey Pachall may actually turn out to be un upgrade. Like many QB's from smaller conferences it's more about the system than the talents of the signal callers. For example look how many BYU QB's get drafted and how many have success at the next level. TCU returns only eight starters from a year ago, but just two seasons ago they returned just 10 and saw their per game averages go up 5.4 points from the previous year. In our opinion Gary Patterson is one of the best coaches in the college game and he's 4-1 ATS in season openers the last five years including a 17-7 win here at Baylor in 2006. Last year Baylor lost at TCU 45-10 while catching 21 points. Now there has been roughly a 17 point swing. That number is about 10 points when factoring in the site change. The last three times Baylor has faced TCU the Bears have been beaten by a combined score of 89-17, an average of 30-6. How much of a drop-off does TCU have to go through to lesson the gap between these two programs? Has the gap changed by 10 points from last year? We obviously don't think so. Baylor was 7-6 last year despite going 3-1 in games decided by 8 points or less. The previous season in a 4-8 campaign they were 2-0 in 8 or less point decisions. Last season Baylor went bowling for the first time in 16 years. They will regress to the mean this season which is to say they remain a far cry talent wise from the team in Fort Worth. PLAY TCU |
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09-01-11 | Bowling Green v. Idaho -7 | 32-15 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 27 m | Show | |
137/138 Bowling Green at Idaho
While many will point out how well the Falcons did last year in non-conference action, the truth is they regressed as the season went on. They were 1-7 straight up in MAC play, being outgained by 105 yards per contest. The defense does return seven starters but they allowed 33.6 ppg a season ago. Despite starting ten games last year Matt Schilz had to fight off an incoming freshmen for the starting quarterback job. Maybe an 8 to 14 touchdown to interception ratio had something to do with it. He was never the same after coming back from an injury suffered in the third game of the season. Bowling Green has one of the youngest teams in the nation with 54 freshmen and 27 sophomores. That's telling considering the lack of depth on this squad. While the Falcons bring back four starting offensive linemen, they were last in the country in rushing last year. Idaho is coming off a 6-7 season after going 8-5 in 2009 and beating these Falcons in the Humanitarian Bowl. Now in his fifth year in Moscow Robb Akey has really upgraded the talent in this organization. There are currently seven players from last years team that are in NFL training camps right now. Idaho is strong in the defensive front seven as they return seven starters from a unit which has improved by 14.5 ppg the last two seasons. QB Brian Reader takes over this season as the starter, he produced a solid 5 to 1 touchdown to interception ratio last season. The Vandals are 9-1 ATS vs non-conference competition the last two seasons with the only pointspread loss coming as an 8 point road favorite at Colorado State. This is a solid team that should continue to improve defensively. PLAY IDAHO |
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09-01-11 | Wake Forest +7 v. Syracuse | 29-36 | Push | 0 | 57 h 45 m | Show | |
Wake Forest at Syracuse
To show the lack of enthusiasm for this Orangemen team the Stadium which seats 50,000 is expected to have just 37,000 in attendance for the season opener. After five straight seasons of four wins or less Syracuse managed a solid 8-5 season including a bowl win over Kansas State. While Doug Marrone has done a fine job we expect this club to regress this season. They were very healthy last year and they benefitted in close games going 4-0 in contests decided by 7 points or less. The non-conference slate was much easier last season while they face the likes of USC on the road this campaign. The offense returns eight starters but they only produced 22.2 points last season. The defense was very good last year but only five starters return on that side of the ball. Syracuse has been a far better team the last few years on the road so they don't deserve the traditional home field advantage. Jim Grobe has done more with less than just about any coach in the country. Coaching at a university which is known for their basketball and not football prowess is a major challenge. That said in his ten year career in Winston-Salem he has posted five winning seasons. Off back to back losing campaigns and with 17 returning starters we expect the Demon Deacons to return to respectability. This is the most experienced team Grobe has had in the last decade, and after a huge 9.5 ppg defensive drop last year we expect Wake to be much better defensively. Grobe is 34-24-2 ATS getting points at Wake Forest and the line here is much higher than we projected. Mid level squads like Syracuse and Wake Forest tend to have a certain level of play based on history and talent. Syracuse exceeded that level last year while Wake Forest regressed. That gives us plenty of pointspread value to open the year as we grade out Wake Forest as the slightly better team catching a touchdown. PLAY WAKE FOREST |
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01-10-11 | Oregon +3 v. Auburn | 19-22 | Push | 0 | 24 h 4 m | Show | |
Oregon & Auburn at Glendale, AZ
Going into the final week of the season we had Oregon as the better team power rating wise. Although we fully respect what the Tigers did in the SEC Championship we can't throw out everything we learned all season. Sure the SEC is the superior conference but Auburn has gotten just about every break imaginable this season. They won by 3 points at Mississippi State, had to go to overtime hosting Clemson, won by just 3 points at Kentucky and had to use a major second half comeback against Alabama in order to get to this game. While many will say that playing in close games provides a team the ability to win under pressure, I believe it just shows that Auburn are not nearly as good as their record. Oregon was only challenged twice this year, in a 42-31 win at Arizona State and a 15-13 win at California. But against bowl participants they beat the SEC's Tennessee Volunteers on the road by 35, beat Stanford 52-31, a team that could very well be playing in this game if not for the Oregon loss. The Ducks also won at USC 53-32 and beat Washington 53-16, and Arizona 48-29. The SEC is being touted as by far the best conference in the country, and in the past few years that is true. But this year the conference as a whole was down as teams like Georgia, Florida and Tennessee took a major step back. Even the defending National Champion Alabama couldn't win by previous margins. Auburn is getting far too much credit for playing in the SEC when it's clear that as a whole their schedule wasn't nearly as tough as in years past. PLAY OREGON |
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01-03-11 | Virginia Tech v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 12-40 | Win | 100 | 19 h 14 m | Show |
Virginia Tech & Stanford at Miami
Stanford has a hell of a football team that just doesn't get enough publicity. They suffered just one loss on the season and that was to Oregon, a team playing in the National Championship game. The Cardinal actually led that game at the half before the Duck's superior quickness did them in. Virginia Tech simply doesn't have the team speed that Oregon possesses. The Cardinal offense has gotten all of the accolades for good reason as Andrew Luck may be the best quarterback in the college ranks. But it's the defense that has gotten better and better as the season has gone on, limiting their last five opponents to a combined 44 points. Virginia Tech is a good football team but I'm not sure they should be playing in a game of this magnitude. They allowed 33 points in a virtual home loss to Boise State and gave up 30 to NC State which has a solid quarterback at the helm. Other than those two teams they haven't faced another quality signal caller. If the Hokies are going to allow a similar number of points here to what likely is the best quarterback they have faced this season, we can't expect this pedestrian offense to keep this game close. The last three times Virginia Tech has faced a Top 10 ranked team in a bowl game they lost every game, while averaging just 19.3 points per contest. We look for more of the same as the Cardinal have the power running game, better quarterback and stronger defense. PLAY STANFORD |
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01-01-11 | Penn State v. Florida -7 | Top | 24-37 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Penn State & Florida at Tampa
Joe Paterno announced earlier this week that he will be back for yet another season in Happy Valley. Based on this season that may not be a positive. In fact, many Penn State fans will consider that as a negative. Penn State was a young team this year with only 17 seniors on the roster. In looking over the schedule the best team they beat was either Michigan or Northwestern, teams that they played at home. Against the better teams on the schedule Penn State lost to Alabama by 21, to Iowa by 21, to Ohio State by 24 and to Michigan State by 6. Penn State really struggled against good defensive teams scoring 3 against Bama, 3 against Iowa and 14 against Ohio State. Even with extra preparation time we can't see this offense having much success against a solid Florida defense. The Brett Favre of coaching announced his retirement again as Urban Meyer is stepping down for the second straight year. Because of that we expect a big emotional game from his Gators players. We're well aware of the off the field issues this team has had, including injuries, but sometimes emotion overcomes obstacles. The Gator offense started to come together late in the season and we look for more of the same here. Penn State doesn't have great playmakers this season in order to stretch the field. That negates what has been a weakness for this Florida defense. Off an embarrassing 31-7 in-state loss to Florida State we look for a very emotional effort from the Gators playing in their home state. Lay the wood as Urban Meyer leaves the program with a solid victory. PLAY FLORIDA |
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01-01-11 | Northwestern +9.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Northwestern & Texas Tech at Dallas
The last time we saw these Wildcats play they were steamrolled by Wisconsin 70-23 in a game in which they had a turnover deficit of seven. The week prior Northwestern allowed 48 points to Illinois. You can bet this team is chomping at the bit to redeem themselves here against another team from a power conference. Under Pat Fitzgerald the Wildcats went bowling each of the last two years and covered the spread both games, with each game ending in an overtime loss. If there is a more motivated team coming into their bowl game we haven't found one. Texas Tech beat one good football team all season, a 24-17 home win over Missouri. Other that that the most impressive victory likely came in the season opener as the Red Raiders beat SMU at home 35-27. Keep in mind that this is a team that lost a home to Texas in the worst season for the Longhorns in decades. Northwestern had a habit all season of blowing sizable leads in the second half. Much of that had to do with facing a physical Big Ten Conference schedule. Now with five weeks of rest we expect the Wildcats to come out healthy and strong throughout this contest. PLAY NORTHWESTERN |
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12-30-10 | Army v. SMU -7 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
Army & SMU at Dallas
Big props to Rich Ellerson who has the Black Knights bowling for the first time since 1996. But truth be told Army played what could possibly be the weakest schedule this side of the MAC and Sun Belt Conference. The best teams the Knights faced were Hawaii in a 3 point home loss, Temple in a 7 point home loss, Air Force in a 20 point home loss, Notre Dame in a 24 point neutral site loss and Navy in a 14 point neutral site loss. The Cadets lost to every decent team they faced this season. SMU has a distinct advantage here after facing a similar styled Navy team earlier this season. June Jones reiterated that fact earlier this week. The Mustangs held Navy to 28 points in that game and have been very solid defensively for much of the year. Keep in mind that this is the team who gave TCU all they could handle in an earlier 41-24 loss. While Conference USA isn't a hot bed of football strength the Mustangs have fared better than the Knights against quality opposition. They beat East Carolina and Tulsa, two teams who went bowling this year. With June Jones putting to rest the Maryland rumors it's time for the Mustangs to take the next step. After a 45-10 pounding of Nevada in the Hawaii Bowl last year SMU continues their rise. PLAY SMU |
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12-28-10 | North Carolina State +3 v. West Virginia | Top | 23-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
North Carolina State & West Virginia in Orlando
West Virginia is about to go through a great deal of change. Bill Stewart has already been told that he won't be around after next season and they have already made some coaching changes for this game. Those coaches who haven't already been dismissed must worry about future jobs for 2012. This is not the type of atmosphere you want in a bowl game situation. The Mountaineers have only practiced seven times since the matchup was announced and the West Virginia fan base has been very slow in buying tickets for this contest. NC State has a veteran coach in Tom O'Brien who has had great success in the postseason. Remember that he was the head man at Boston College who garnered great success from his bowl game victories. The Wolfpack also have the better quarterback which is a huge edge in these type of affairs. We expect late money to come in on NC State once the late bettors realize the situation in Morgantown. There are still some 3's available as we write this but they likely won't last. NC State has been very good to us this year as we announced that they would be our play on team in college football this year. With a 9-3 spread record they haven't disappointed, while the smart money has been against West Virginia just about all season. Look for the Wolfpack to win this one outright. PLAY NC STATE |
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12-04-10 | Auburn v. South Carolina +6 | Top | 56-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
Auburn & South Carolina at Atlanta
Make no mistake about it this Auburn team has been very lucky to be in the position they sit right now. They won by just 3 points at Mississippi State. They beat Clemson at home by a field goal in overtime. They took advantage of a plus two turnover margin in beating these same Gamecocks by 8 at home. Auburn beat Kentucky by 3 points. The Tigers beat LSU at home by 7 points. And last week coming off a bye they made a huge second half comeback in order to beat Alabama by a single point. It's said it's better to be lucky than good, I guess that's Auburn's season in a nutshell. South Carolina has three losses on the season as they didn't win the lone coin-flip game on their schedule. The Cocks lost at Kentucky by 3 and were pounded in a meaningless game against Arkansas in November. The reason why the game meant nothing to South Carolina was that they had to beat Florida the following week in order to play in this game. So the three losses came in a meaningless game, by 3 on the road at Kentucky and by 8 on the road at Auburn. While the Tigers were involved in close game after close game South Carolina's wins were by margins of 28, 11, 19, 14, 14, 14, 12, 45 and 22 points. Auburn struggled at home against Clemson yet South Carolina beat them on the road by 22. The Tigers almost had their season end last week at Alabama yet the Gamecocks beat the Tide by 14 points. If the coin-flip games would have gone any other way the Gamecocks would likely be favored here. We expect the outright upset in revenge. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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12-04-10 | SMU v. Central Florida -9 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show | |
SMU at Central Florida - USA Conference Championship
Tough spot for the Mustangs who had to go to overtime on the road at East Carolina in order to secure the title shot. After losing at UTEP in early November the Mustangs had to sweep the last two games in order to play here. June Jones is known to have great offensive teams in the past and SMU produced 29.2 ppg a year ago. But this team has only had offensive success against the poor defenses of Washington State, Rice, Tulane, Marshall and East Carolina. This stop unit will be the best they have faced all season this side of TCU who they lost to by 17 earlier at home. The SMU defense did very well against weak scoring units but every quality offense they faced had success. While the Mustangs were forced to win out down the stretch the Knights of UCF ended the season with two cupcakes, Tulane and Memphis. They beat those two by a combined margin of 67 points. We were impressed by the resiliency of this team. At the end of October they played East Carolina, a team they had lost to the past four years and beat the Pirates 49-35. The following week they went into Houston and beat the Cougars on national television. The following week the Knights hosted Southern Miss and the Golden Eagles did what they always seem to do, beat Central Florida. But instead of sulking this team went out the next two weeks and pounded the opposition. Now playing at home we look for the stellar Knights defense to be the difference. UCF has beaten the Mustangs 31-17 and 49-20 the past two meetings, we look for a similar ending here. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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12-03-10 | Miami v. Northern Illinois -17 | 26-21 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami Ohio & Northern Illinois at Detroit
The Redhawks are very fortunate to be in the MAC Championship game. They needed Ohio U to beat Temple, and for Kent State to beat Ohio U last week. Kent coach Doug Martin shocked everyone by announcing his resignation after a 38-3 loss at Western Michigan. The players rallied around their outgoing coach and beat Ohio U last week in a very emotional game for the Golden Flashes. If he had not decided to leave it's pretty clear than Kent would have gone out with a whimper and Ohio U would have been playing in this game instead of Miami. The week prior Ohio U upset Temple 31-23 to take all the air out of the Owls who were pointing towards a MAC Championship all season. There was no surprise last week when the Redhawks beat a broken Temple team to play in this game. Miami has been fortunate to get by playing the bottom tier of this conference. They played Eastern Michigan, Kent State, Central Michigan, Buffalo, Bowling Green and Akron. In addition to a defeated Temple squad the Redhawks lost at home to Ohio U 34-13. So they avoided Northern Illinois, lost to Ohio U at home by 21 and beat a Temple team after the Owls lost a chance to play in this game. Not what you would call a stellar resume. Northern Illinois is by far the class of this conference as they are undefeated in league play with wins by margins of 36, 14, 31, 26, 7, 35, 38 and 68 points. They beat Temple 31-17 back when the Owls looked like the team to beat in conference. This game is being played on turf and the Huskies have posted a 9-0-1 spread mark their last 10 games on turf. They are very fast and it's shown when they are on the fake surface. Miami has been at their best at home as they have underperformed outside of Oxford. They lost at Florida by 22, lost at Missouri by 38, lost at Cincinnati by 42 and beat the conference weaklings Central Michigan, Buffalo, Bowling Green and Akron by 7, 12, 3 and 5 points respectively. Coming off a 3-21 record the last two seasons the Miami players should really be proud of what they have accomplished, but Northern Illinois is the far superior squad. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS |
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11-27-10 | Houston v. Texas Tech -9 | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 8 m | Show | |
Houston at Texas Tech
The Cougars entered the season as the favorite in Conference USA off a 10-4 season with record setting QB Case Keenum returning. But he was injured midway through the year and the Cougars have plummeted. Houston has dropped 5 of their last 7 games with the victories coming against SMU and Memphis. Houston beat the Red Raiders last year 29-28. The Cougars went ahead with just 49 seconds remaining which Texas Tech remembers well. The Cougars had a huge crowd and they were ranked in the Top 20 for the first time in years. The game was big for the players and the program as Texas Tech ran into a motivated host. But things are a bit different this year as Houston is playing for a .500 record. Quite a difference from where they entered the season. Texas Tech has also had a disappointing season but they didn't enter the year with the expectations of the Cougars. Tommy Tuberville took over a program that was shocked by the firing of the very successful Mike Leach. A victory here not only ensures the Red Raiders of another winning season, but it also adds to their last home game dominance. Texas Tech is 22-3 straight up and 19-5 ATS in their home finales since 1985. Look for payback Saturday as Texas Tech takes advantage of a wounded Cougar. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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11-27-10 | BYU +8.5 v. Utah | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show | |
BYU at Utah
If this game had been played a month ago we would have come to an entirely different conclusion. But right now the Cougars of BYU are playing the much better ball. After getting a bye to start the month of November the Cougars have won big with victories by margins of 48, 39 and 33 points. Granted they did face the bottom feeders in the Mountain West of UNLV, Colorado State and New Mexico, but the Cougars were dominant. This rivalry is called the Holy War and it's been closely contested as of late. Four of the last five games have been decided by 7 points or less including two games in overtime. Utah like BYU feasted on the bottom of this conference but they did so before we knew how lopsided the Mountain West was. With big wins over UNLV, New Mexico and Colorado State the Utes were at one time very highly ranked. But the last three weeks they lost to TCU by 40, lost to Notre Dame by 25 and had a huge comeback against San Diego State to escape with a 4 point win. Now with a full season of games to compare it's pretty obvious that the Utes are an overrated football team. Utah hasn't beaten any quality teams this year by more than 5 points, including Pittsburgh, Air Force and San Diego State. To expect them to win by double digits against their biggest rival would be a mistake. PLAY BYU |
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11-27-10 | Washington Huskies v. California -6.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 27 m | Show |
Washington at California
The Huskies haven't been very competitive on the road this year losing the last two games by margins of 37 and 30 points. While they did upset USC in a huge game for head coach Greg Sarkisian and his staff, they also lost at BYU in the opener when the Cougars were simply terrible. Off a bye last week Washington pulled away in the second half and beat UCLA 24-7 at home. But now with a road trip to Pullman next week to face instate rival Washington State, the Huskies are in a sandwich situation. The Golden Bears have been simply awful away from Berkeley but at home they have been dominant. When not facing the top ranked teams of Oregon and Stanford the Bears have won by margins of 49, 45, 28 and 33 points here. Even in a loss to Oregon they gave the top ranked team in the country all they could handle in a 15-13 defeat. Last week they ran into a very physical Stanford team and the Cardinal simply dominated. But against the more finesse teams on the schedule California has been unstoppable here. Cal has dominated Washington in Berkeley winning by margins of 41, 7 and 47 points the last three visits. Last year the Huskies embarrassed the Golden Bears 42-10 in Seattle, look for payback from the host. PLAY CALIFORNIA |
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11-26-10 | Buffalo v. Akron -1 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
Buffalo at Akron
We went against the Bulls last week for our college football game of the year and we do so again here. Buffalo simply doesn't put up enough points to be in this price range on the road. The last six weeks they have produced 17, 3, 17, 9, 0 and 14 points. Keep in mind all those games came against the weak defenses of the MAC. The Bulls have beaten Akron the past three years and the Zips are winless, but Akron is the only one of these two squads showing heart right now. The Zips are the last winless team in the FCS and you know they don't want that stat in the record books. Despite an 0-11 record Akron continues to play for first year coach Rob Ianello. Last week they took Ball State to the wire in a five point home cover. The previous game they took Ball State to overtime on the road. In the game preceding that Akron trailed Temple on the road at halftime 6-0 before the physical Owls wore them down in the second half. The Zips aren't an offense force by any means but this game is all about heart and pride, two things the Bulls have a shortage of right now. Last week we backed the one win Eagles this week the winless Zips make up money. PLAY AKRON |
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11-20-10 | Tennessee -9 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 0 m | Show |
Tennessee at Vanderbilt
These two clubs are going in opposite directions. The Volunteers have cashed three straight games including impressive wins over Memphis 50-14 and Mississippi 51-14. Derek Dooley in his first season in Knoxville is turning this program around and he will take great pride in pounding in-state rival Vanderbilt. The Vols have won 11 of the last 12 meetings including a 15 point victory a year ago at home. The last time Tennessee visited Vandy they won by a 10 point margin in 2008. As long as the Volunteers don't turn the ball over they are an excellent pointspread proposition. They are just 1-3 ATS when having a turnover deficit. A telling stat happened three weeks ago when Tennessee gave South Carolina all they could handle in a 38-24 loss. Despite a negative three turnover disadvantage the Volunteers covered the spread by 3 1/2 points. That type of TO deficit very rarely results in a pointspread cover unless the betting public is dead wrong with their evaluation of a team, and that has proven out the last two weeks with spread covers of 16 and 35 points. Vanderbilt is having a season they would like to forget. Right before the year started long time coach Bobby Johnson abruptly quit the program. That left the team with many question marks and after a 2-8 start to the season not many of those questions have been answered. Vanderbilt has one of the weakest offenses in the nation having been shutout in the first half an amazing three times. The Commodores have dropped five straight games ATS but they end the season with a winnable game next week when the host the equally woeful Wake Forest Demon Deacons. I spoke earlier in reference to turnover margins. Vandy has lost that TO margin five times this year in turn losing to the spread each time by a combined 83 points. Vandy knows a win over Tennessee could make their season but the Commodores just don't have the horses to pull it off. Tennessee has shown no reason to pull of the reigns against other competition and to beat their in-state rival by a margin would be a recruiting statement for Dooley in his first year at UT> PLAY TENNESSEE |
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11-20-10 | Arkansas -3 v. Mississippi State | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
Arkansas at Mississippi State
We knew coming into the season that Arkansas would be dynamic offensively and it has surely proven out. The last five weeks they have scored 43, 38, 49, 41 and 58 points. But the defense has been a major surprise as they have held all but one opponent to 24 points or less. That includes Georgia, Alabama, Texas A&M and South Carolina. The Razorbacks have gone on the road and posted a 3-1 straight up record with the lone loss coming at Auburn. In fact, their only losses came against Alabama, the defending national champion, and Auburn who is currently slated to play in the BCS title game. Arkansas has beaten Mississippi State 8 of the last 9 meetings including a 42-21 home win last year. We were on the Bulldogs last week against Alabama with poor results. The situation screamed for a play on Mississippi State off a bye with Alabama's national title hopes ruined. But the Tide dominated play and came away with a 30-10 victory that was more lopsided than the final score. The simple truth is that the Bulldogs just don't have the offensive firepower to compete with very good offenses. This is a team that scored 14 against Auburn, 7 against LSU, 10 against Florida and 10 last week against Alabama. Other than Auburn, this Arkansas offense is vastly superior to the those other teams. Mississippi State is 5-5 ATS on the season despite a plus 7 turnover margin. They have yet to cover this year without a turnover advantage going 0-4 ATS losing to the spread by a combined margin of 34 1/2 points. Mississippi State just doesn't have an offense able to trade points with Arkansas and the Razorback defense has held far more dynamic scoring teams in check. PLAY ARKANSAS |
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11-20-10 | Eastern Michigan +7 v. Buffalo | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 45 h 56 m | Show |
Eastern Michigan at Buffalo
The Eagles are a team nobody gives any credit to because of a 1-21 straight up record as of late. But this team is improving every week under second year coach Ron English. Eastern Michigan has posted a 4-6 spread record on the year despite losing the turnover battle eight times. They have played the likes of Ohio State, Ohio U, Vanderbilt, and Virginia, all teams that should and did manhandle the Eagles at the point of attack. This team easily stayed under the number last week at Western Michigan and now they take a huge step down in class to face an equally skilled Buffalo team. The Eagles played very competitive ball against the likes of Miami Ohio, a 7 point road loss, Ball State, an overtime road win and last week at Western Michigan. Because of their blowout losses when they were outclassed, especially offensively, this team is thought to be weaker than they truly are. Eastern is 3-3 ATS on the road this season and a perfect 3-0 ATS away in conference. The games at Ohio State, Vanderbilt and Virginia were basically paycheck games for this program. Buffalo enters play at 2-8 on the season. The two wins came over Bowling Green and FCS entrant Rhode Island. The Bulls lost at home to Miami Ohio by 12, the same team Eastern beat on the road, and lost at home to Ball State by 17, the same team the Eagles only lost by 7 to on the road. Buffalo played the last two weeks in front of a national audience against Ohio U and Ball State and next week they appear on TV again as they go to Akron. So this could be considered a sandwich situation for the Bulls. Buffalo is on a 1-5 ATS run in the role of home favorite with outright losses in four of those games. The Bulls have score 3, 17, 9, 0 and 14 points the last five weeks. They are averaging just 11.8 points per game in league play. So I ask you, how can a team scoring less than two touchdowns a game be expected to cover a touchdown spread? We call for the outright upset as Eastern Michigan is simply the better team in this matchup. PLAY EASTERN MICHIGAN |
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11-17-10 | Miami v. Akron +9.5 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show | |
Miami Ohio at Akron
The Redhawks became bowl eligible last week with their win over Bowling Green. This is their third straight road game and 5th in the last six games. They last played a game last Wednesday and they have a quick turnaround to face Temple at home next Tuesday in their season finale. Miami hasn't won a road game by more than a touchdown since the 2005 season. Teams of the caliber of the Redhawks are just happy with a victory and rarely win by margins, especially on the road. Miami is 3-6-1 as a road favorite the past five seasons. It's the first season at the helm for Akron coach Rob Ianello and the extra preparation time is a huge edge. This is a team that is winless on the season but they are coming off a game in which they took Ball State to overtime on the road. They have faced every team in the top echelon of the MAC and have avoided the bottom feeders of Buffalo, Eastern Michigan and the like. While Miami Ohio isn't one of the dregs of the league they surely aren't in the class of Temple, Ohio U and Northern Illinois. In the NFL winless teams off a bye are excellent pointspread propositions and this spot is big for the Zips who end the season with Miami Ohio and Buffalo, two very winnable games. Unlike most of the teams on the Zips schedule they won't be athletically outmanned here. With the team off a confidence building overtime loss two Saturdays ago we expect Akron to get over the winless hurdle tonight. PLAY AKRON |