11-14-15 |
BYU v. Missouri +7 |
|
16-20 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 38 m |
Show
|
190 BYU at Missouri While most of the press regarding this game has focused on off the field racial problems, there is still a contest being played in Arrowhead Stadium. BYU has had severe offensive line problems as of late and it’s been a while since the Cougars played a decent football team. With coach Pinkel following the lead of his players in threatening to not play this game, the mood in the locker room has to be one of unity. While there has been many distractions for Missouri it does have two extra days off before this contest. Also playing in Kansas City should also be an advantage as the entire state has struggled lately with racial bias. Our numbers point to a nice advantage for Missouri but more than anything emotion should be a big edge for the Tigers here. PLAY MISSOURI
|
11-14-15 |
Wake Forest +27 v. Notre Dame |
|
7-28 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 53 m |
Show
|
169 Wake Forest at Notre Dame Demon Deacons coming off a bye, which is big this time of year. The Irish on the other hand have faced a powerful schedule of Pittsburgh, Temple, USC, Navy and Clemson the last six games. With rival Boston College in Fenway Park and Stanford left on the schedule. This is a clear flat spot for the Irish especially after making the latest final four rankings. Notre Dame has been a poor double digit favorite while Wake has been excellent taking double digits out of conference. We back the Demon Deacons here to keep this one under the number. PLAY WAKE FOREST
|
11-14-15 |
Washington v. Arizona State -2.5 |
|
17-27 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 16 m |
Show
|
186 Washington at Arizona State The Huskies and Sun Devils are both in danger of not qualifying for a bowl this year. Therefore both teams should give solid efforts here. Something lacking as of late from both. But Todd Graham has only coached one team that ended the season with a losing record and we like his chances here. When breaking down conference games the Sun Devils have produced a solid yardage advantage while the Huskies continue to be out gained. And Arizona State has completely dominated Washington with 9 straight wins and covers. Better talent gets it done for the host here. PLAY ARIZONA STATE
|
11-11-15 |
Bowling Green -3 v. Western Michigan |
Top |
41-27 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 33 m |
Show
|
105 Bowling Green at Western Michigan
Big MAC showdown on ESPN2 on Wednesday as Bowling Green & Western Michigan get ready for a shootout. BG has won the yardage battle in all but one game this season, the opener against Tennessee which had a 47 yard difference. Going into the last game for each BG had a 54-33 explosive yard edge over the opposition while WM sat at 35-38, allowing three more plays of 20+ yards than it achieved. Both teams had permitted 5 drives of 80 yards or more, but while the Broncos had just 9 themselves the Falcons produced 17. This game means more to the visitor as Western still has division opponents Northern Illinois and Toledo remaining on the schedule. The winner of that three team race plays in the MAC Championship game. Bowling Green on the other hand finishes the regular season with a non-divisional Toledo team and Ball State. Those two contests as well as this one are the only MAC regular season revenge games for Dino Babers and his crew. We expect him to emphasize that fact to his team as a motivating factor. The Broncos just played the dregs of the conference Ohio, Miami, Eastern Michigan and Ball State. This is a huge step up game for the host.PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
11-07-15 |
Wisconsin -10.5 v. Maryland |
|
31-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
28 h 30 m |
Show
|
391 Wisconsin at Maryland Wisconsin is getting healthy and the key offense ball carrier is not back in action. While the offensive line hasn’t been nearly as productive this season, it hasn’t been helped by banged up ball carriers. Now we can really see how this Wisconsin run game can do with all its weapons. Maryland doesn’t have a lot of depth and when facing a downhill running team that weakness can be exploited. Look for the Badgers to pull away in the second half as the Terrapins fade. PLAY WISCONSIN
|
11-07-15 |
Cincinnati v. Houston -9 |
|
30-33 |
Loss |
-105 |
29 h 32 m |
Show
|
348 Cincinnati at Houston Both teams have excellent offenses but the Cougars have by far the better stop unit. The problem with the Bearcats is the defense allows quick scores along with a quick strike offense. That means the stop unit has to get back on the field quickly, a likely reason for some of the problems. Houston’s defense isn’t worn down and it faces less plays and has better success. We will back the host in a game in which one poor unit on the field gets exploited. PLAY HOUSTON
|
11-07-15 |
Vanderbilt +21 v. Florida |
|
7-9 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 7 m |
Show
|
341 Vanderbilt at Florida Last week Vandy faced an elite passing team in Houston, Florida doesn’t have that ability to attack through the air. The Commodores lost the turnover battle by three to Western Kentucky, Georgia and South Carolina yet only lost those games by 2, 17 and 9 points. That shows me that even when times are tough this team is able to stay competitive. Florida’s two biggest wins on the season were against Mississippi and Georgia, games in which the Gators had a turnover advantage of four in each game. When not holding a large turnover edge Florida won by 7 against East Carolina, 5 against Kentucky and a single point to Tennessee. PLAY VANDERBILT
|
11-06-15 |
Temple -14 v. SMU |
|
60-40 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 40 m |
Show
|
319 Temple at SMU Many out there feel that the loss to Notre Dame was a bubble burst loss for the Owls. We don’t see it that way. Temple lost at home to Notre Dame last week in a tightly contested contest, but it’s not like the Owls were looking to play for the National Championship. They still remain undefeated in conference play with the league title in their grasp. If anything that close defeat was a confidence builder for this club. Now after tasting defeat the Owls drop way down in class to take on an SMU team that while improved is still one of the lesser teams in the nation. SMU wants to play fast which means more plays and a longer game which is an advantage to the better team. More plays mean more chances for the Owls to extend a lead. We have the much better defense in Temple and an inconsistent offense with SMU who looks competent one week and totally lost the next. We will lay the short number with the far better team here off a rare loss. PLAY TEMPLE
|
11-05-15 |
Baylor -17 v. Kansas State |
Top |
31-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
29 h 21 m |
Show
|
307 Baylor at Kansas State Now that the Baylor starting QB is out for the season with a neck injury the Bears have turned into an afterthought in the national landscape. Even the rankings that came out yesterday have Baylor sitting on the sidelines for the Final Four Playoff. But as Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. The new QB Jarrett Stidham may be better than any that have played the position over the past decade. The players have talked highly of him and his stats have been outstanding in mop up duty. Both teams are off a bye but with a new signal caller the extra time to prepare edge goes to the Bears. Bill Snyder is one of the all-time great college coaches. He has been especially good in the underdog role. But this Wildcats team is just a shell of its earlier self as injuries have devastated this team, especially in the defensive backfield where Baylor can really take advantage. Kansas State is being out gained by 222 yards per contest in Big 12 action, not a good sign when facing the nation’s elite offense. PLAY BAYLOR
|
11-01-15 |
Air Force v. Hawaii +7 |
Top |
58-7 |
Loss |
-125 |
26 h 11 m |
Show
|
206 Air Force at Hawaii The Falcons haven’t visited the Big Island since 2001. Air Force has Army on deck which is a much more important contest. Hawaii returns home after 4 of 5 games on the mainland. This is a team that has already faced Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State. The Warriors defended the option against New Mexico just two weeks ago. With 4 of the final 5 games at home we look for Hawaii to end the season strong. Starting with a victory on Saturday against Air Force. PLAY HAWAII
|
10-31-15 |
South Florida +7 v. Navy |
|
17-29 |
Loss |
-105 |
15 h 33 m |
Show
|
123 South Florida at Navy The Bulls are on the improve as the offense is starting to come together. The defense is solid and coming off a complete shutdown of a potent SMU offense. This veteran stop unit should be able to keep this Navy team in check similar to a far less talented defense in Tulane last week. PLAY SOUTH FLORIDA
|
10-31-15 |
Western Kentucky -24 v. Old Dominion |
|
55-30 |
Win
|
100 |
14 h 27 m |
Show
|
181 Western Kentucky at Old Dominion Although the final score didn’t show it the Hilltoppers played LSU very close a week ago. This is an excellent team that has shown a bully attitude against lesser opposition. Western scored 66 last year against Old Dominion and this years Monarchs team pales in comparison. Despite eight returning offensive starters the host hasn’t been the same without Taylor Heinicke behind center. The Monarchs don’t have the scoring to keep this close. PLAY WESTERN KENTUCKY
|
10-24-15 |
Washington State +7.5 v. Arizona |
|
45-42 |
Win
|
100 |
43 h 46 m |
Show
|
411 Washington State at Arizona Washington State hasn’t lost an FBS game this year by more than 6 points and that came at California, a superior team to the Wildcats. The Cougars have already won crossing the country at Rutgers and winning outright as well at Autzen Stadium against the Ducks. The last two weeks this team put up 97 combined points against the Oregon schools and should find plenty of success here. We didn’t like this Arizona team coming into the season and have seen nothing to change our minds. Despite a 5-2 straight up mark this team has been pounded when stepping up in class. While that’s not the case here we have this game much closer in our power ratings than this line dictates. When facing Top 40 offenses Arizona has permitted 56 and 55 points along with 497 and 550 yards. We have this Cougars offense in the same range as Stanford and UCLA, the two teams Arizona couldn’t compete with. Real chance for another outright road win here for the Cougars. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE
|
10-24-15 |
Hawaii +7 v. Nevada |
|
20-30 |
Loss |
-100 |
16 h 21 m |
Show
|
409 Hawaii at Nevada The Warriors have gotten a lot of flak about its lack of scoring on the mainland. But take a look at the teams it played, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Boise State. Finally dropping down in class last week Hawaii put up 27 covering the spread at New Mexico. This is a team that has been installed as a combined 101 point underdog in FBS games and yet has only permitted 20 plays of 20 yards or more on the season. That’s 12 less explosive plays than Nevada who has been a cumulative underdog by 31 points. The only FBS teams to exceed 402 total yards against Hawaii were Wisconsin and Boise State. Only Ohio State and Boise State have surpassed 28 points against Hawaii which makes taking over a touchdown such a strong value. Nevada has been favored over FBS competition three times this year, losing 2 of 3 outright. The Wolf Pack are 2-4 on the year vs FBS teams despite never losing the turnover battle in any of those games. Which tells us that the host isn’t worthy of this type of favoritism. PLAY HAWAII
|
10-24-15 |
Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech |
|
45-43 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 33 m |
Show
|
361 Duke at Virginia Tech Revenge game for Duke as a one point loss a year ago kept them from playing in the ACC Championship. Duke has been a nice money maker as of late with a 23-9-1 ATS mark while the Hokies are money burners at 20-37-2 ATS. The Hokies are known as a superior special teams squad but those beliefs are in the past. Duke has the far better kicking game in this matchup. Duke enters this game off a bye and we feel this squad is clearly superior to Virginia Tech. The Hokies will get its starting quarterback back this week after playing a bit in the second half a week ago. But this team and program is on the downside the past few years. Despite Virginia Tech owning this series with a 13-1 SU mark, the better team catching points is the way to go here. PLAY DUKE
|
10-24-15 |
Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 61.5 |
|
26-52 |
Win
|
100 |
22 h 44 m |
Show
|
327 Indiana at Michigan State On the season these two clubs have combined for 146 explosive plays, the same number as Memphis at Tulsa last night. That total was in the 77 range while this one sits more than two full touchdowns less. The last two years these two combined for 73 and 70 points and this Spartans defense is nowhere as good as those units. Indiana has put up 27 or more and 400 yards against all but one opponent, including Wake Forest and Ohio State who both have strong stop units. Michigan State is sure to have a letdown here after that amazing finish at Michigan. The team has a well needed bye after this game. The Spartans are a talented offensive team but this defense has been exploited. This team has permitted 11 drives of 80 yards or more and allowed 37 explosive plays. With the in-state showdown finally over and with a bye on deck we can see the Spartans playing this game free and easy. That points to a lot of scoring. PLAY OVER
|
10-24-15 |
Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 |
|
17-41 |
Loss |
-109 |
19 h 24 m |
Show
|
324 Ohio U at Buffalo Ohio has played one quality offense all season and that was last week against Western Michigan. Against teams of Buffalo’s ilk the Bobcats have allowed just 16 points a game. Ohio has only 20 explosive plays on the season and coming off by far its worst defensive performance of 49 points, we can see this team stepping up the “D” once again. Buffalo has the same problem moving the football with just 13 explosive plays on the season. This team is averaging less than 21 points per game against FBS squads. It too is coming off its worst defensive performance of the year allowing Central Michigan 51. Every other team scored 28 or less and that includes Bowling Green who has dominated offensively against everyone. With both teams off season highs in points allowed we will expect a low scoring affair here. PLAY UNDER
|
10-24-15 |
Central Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State |
|
23-21 |
Loss |
-105 |
16 h 37 m |
Show
|
317 Central Michigan at Ball State It’s not often you can find value in the only undefeated ATS team in the country. But the betting public has been slow to react to the Chippewas. Central Michigan has scored 29 points or more against everyone besides Big 5 opponents Oklahoma State and Michigan State. This team has covered the number by 4 points or better in every game and is beating the closing line by a combined 68.5 points. Despite being a combined 57.5 point dog to FBS opposition the Chippewas have produced eight more explosive plays than it allowed. Ball State on the other hand has been a combined 46 point underdog to FBS opposition and have allowed 13 more explosive plays than it has produced. The Cardinals have been a quality team taking points in the past, but are just 1-3 ATS this season. In three home games this season this team failed to cover by 21 against VMI, by 8 vs Toledo and by 25 against Georgia State. All this despite the fact that Ball State hasn’t lost the turnover battle in any game this year. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
10-24-15 |
Bowling Green -13.5 v. Kent State |
Top |
48-0 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 19 m |
Show
|
321 Bowling Green at Kent State The Falcons have moved the ball effectively against everyone. Producing yardage numbers of 532, 725, 536, 539, 579, 692 and 557 yards. That includes teams from the SEC and two from the Big 10, all on the road. Bowling Green has produced 49 explosive plays while allowing just 30. This team has had an amazing 16 drives of 80 yards or more while allowing only 5. The Falcons haven’t been stopped by anyone and we can’t see Kent State being an exception. Kent State defends the run well but that’s about the only positive for the Golden Flashes. Two weeks ago this team allowed 38 points and 518 yards to Toledo, a comparable team to the Falcons. Offensively the Flashes have been held to 3 against Illinois, 7 vs Minnesota, 7 to Toledo, 15 to Umass and just 20 against bottom feeder Miami Ohio. Kent has produced just 16 explosive plays on the season, less than a third of what BG has accomplished. Quite simply the Flashes don’t have the offensive ability to match points with the Falcons and the defense can’t control them. PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
10-23-15 |
Memphis v. Tulsa +11 |
|
66-42 |
Loss |
-110 |
29 h 13 m |
Show
|
312 Memphis at Tulsa We can see a major letdown here for Memphis after upsetting SEC member Mississippi a week ago. Many players playing for the likes of Memphis grow up dreaming about being recruited and playing in the SEC. It’s not hard to imagine those players had last weeks game circled. The Tigers have moved the ball on everyone, but we have serious concerns about laying double digits on the road with this defense. The last four games the Tigers have permitted 480, 377, 752 and 579 yards. Memphis has allowedd seven drives this season of 80 yards or longer.Tulsa can move the ball just as well if not better than Memphis with yardage outputs of 463, 563, 456, 603, 600 and 618 yards. The Golden Hurricane have produced 38 explosive plays which is actually eight more than the Tigers. While Tulsa gives up a lot of yardage this team has only permitted three 80 yard or higher drives this season, four less than Memphis. In an obvious high scoring affair we will back the host who has a good shot at the outright upset.PLAY TULSA
|
10-22-15 |
Temple v. East Carolina OVER 47.5 |
|
24-14 |
Loss |
-110 |
6 h 57 m |
Show
|
307 Temple at East Carolina Now that the total has dropped we are stepping out with a play on the over here. These two teams have combined for 108 plays of 20 yards to higher this year which would equate to a total in the mid 50’s. Take a look at the poor offenses Temple has faced, Penn State, Charlotte, Tulane and Central Florida. UMass has the ability but still ranks in the lower 30 offensively. Only Cincinnati has a quality offense and 60 points were scored when those two teams got together. East Carolina games tend to be high scoring. In fact, this is by far the lowest total of the season for the Pirates. All but one of their FBS games surpassed the total. Last week the Pirates tried to slow down the Tulsa Hurricane by snapping the ball after 26.7 seconds. That was much higher than the average of less than 23 seconds per play. Which is a major reason why that game last week stayed under the total. The weather is on no concern here so the track will not be affected. Look for East Carolina to return to a quicker offense to keep the Owls from making defensive adjustments. PLAY OVER
|
10-17-15 |
San Diego State +3 v. San Jose State |
|
30-7 |
Win
|
100 |
35 h 37 m |
Show
|
211 San Diego State at San Jose State Wrong team favored here as Rocky Long’s bunch starting to play with confidence. While the Aztecs are coming back to the mainland from Hawaii, San Jose State had to go to overtime last week to beat UNLV without its starting quarterback. San Diego State has won 11 of 16 Mountain West Conference road games in straight up fashion. Also 18-7-1 ATS in conference play as of late. Long is best in the second half of the season and his team has a distinct rushing advantage in this game. San Jose State excels against the pass but struggles defending the run. All San Diego State does is run. Look for an easy Aztecs victory. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
10-17-15 |
Florida +7.5 v. LSU |
|
28-35 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 25 m |
Show
|
161 Florida at LSU Too much of a line move after the Florida starting QB was suspended for the season. The back-up started the year as the main man and has plenty of experience. As a side note this is the fourth straight game LSU has faced off against a back-up signal caller. Florida stops the run allowing just 101 yards on the ground this season. LSU on the other hand is a one dimensional team with the likely Heisman Trophy running back. The night game favors the host, but we don’t see the Gators that far off in talent from the Tigers. LSU is unproven right now while Florida looks to be a team on the rise. PLAY FLORIDA
|
10-17-15 |
Vanderbilt v. South Carolina -2.5 |
|
10-19 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 18 m |
Show
|
190 Vanderbilt at South Carolina Overreaction here as money has flooded in on the Commodores after the resignation of Steve Spurrier. Our contacts down south have talked about his losing the passion for football the last couple seasons. He enjoys the golf course and a few drinks which have cut into his time with the team. The players voted on who they wanted to replace him and this Gamecocks team has much more talent than Vanderbilt. Emotion will be key here as the coach basically quit on his players. You can bet the team will want to prove the Ole Ball Coach wrong for giving up on them. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA
|
10-17-15 |
Alabama v. Texas A&M +4 |
|
41-23 |
Loss |
-104 |
28 h 50 m |
Show
|
160 Alabama at Texas A&M Alabama should move the ball well on the ground here but this is the type of team that has given the Tide fits over the last few years. A&M has cashed 2 of the last 3 meetings but Alabama blew them out a year ago 59-0. So now A&M in addition to shutout revenge has an extra week to prepare, while Alabama is off physical Georgia and Arkansas. The Texas A&M defense is better this season and DC John Chavis knew how to defend the Tide the last six years at LSU. Bama has scored 106 total points the past five years against his Tigers defenses, slightly over 21 points per game. Anything close to that here and the Aggies get the cover with a real shot at a victory. PLAY TEXAS A&M
|
10-17-15 |
Michigan State +7.5 v. Michigan |
|
27-23 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 49 m |
Show
|
173 Michigan State at Michigan Michigan State was favored by 5 1/2 points before the season, four just two weeks ago and was even with Michigan last week. Now the Spartans are getting over a full touchdown based on current events. But keep in mind the Wolverines ran the opening kickoff back and after a three and out scored again. Northwestern was down 14-0 before the game was really underway, and the Wildcats aren’t built for comebacks. Michigan state has won 6 of 7 in this series while cashing the last 7 meetings. The Spartans have won 19 of 20 Big 10 contests, including 11 straight on the road. Michigan State is a perfect 10-0 ATS as a single digit dog. Too much of an overreaction here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
10-17-15 |
Pittsburgh +3.5 v. Georgia Tech |
|
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 49 m |
Show
|
169 Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech Georgia Tech is a one-dimensional offense with real injury concerns in the backfield. The key to the Yellow Jackets is the run game and these ball carriers are dropping like flies. Obviously this coincides with Georgia Tech dropping four straight games. The defense is also struggling as this looks to be a non-bowling year for the host. Pittsburgh has lost just one game, a 3 point defeat to undefeated Iowa. This team stops the run extremely well and looks to avenge a complete turnover prone contest a year ago. Wrong team favored here. PLAY PITTSBURGH
|
10-17-15 |
Purdue +24 v. Wisconsin |
|
7-24 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 21 m |
Show
|
139 Purdue at Wisconsin Wisconsin has dominated this series winning and covering 9 straight. But off a last second come from behind victory over Nebraska we can see Wisconsin being disinterested this week. Purdue isn’t world beaters by any means, but it has posted a nice 9-5 spread mark the past four seasons in the road dog role. Keep in mind Wisconsin just gave Hawaii 24 1/2 here three weeks ago and we have Purdue a full 7 points better than Hawaii in our power ratings. We will go against the uninterested favorite here. PLAY PURDUE
|
10-17-15 |
West Virginia v. Baylor -21 |
|
38-62 |
Win
|
100 |
24 h 18 m |
Show
|
176 West Virginia at Baylor Huge revenge game here for Baylor who lost last year to West Virginia costing this team a chance to play in the final four. Keep in mind that was the game following the huge match-up against TCU. Baylor is 17-7 ATS as a double digit favorite and has had this game circled for close to a year. West Virginia held the Bears to season lows in points, yards and first downs in that game. A Baylor offense which has led the nation in yardage the last three years and doing so again. Unless West Virginia can keep this Baylor offense off the field by having a big rushing game, the Bears win in a blowout. PLAY BAYLOR
|
10-17-15 |
Louisville +7.5 v. Florida State |
|
21-41 |
Loss |
-110 |
24 h 17 m |
Show
|
201 Louisville at Florida State The Cardinals are 11-0 ATS as a road dog and Bobby Petrino coached teams are 22-8 ATS playing in revenge. Louisville is coming off a bye week while Florida State outlasted top rival Miami Florida a week ago. Florida State is just 5-15 ATS its last 20 games as this team is always a shaky favorite. Florida State has made pulling out these type of games on the scoreboard a habit, but we think that streak ends here. PLAY LOUISVILLE
|
10-15-15 |
Auburn v. Kentucky +2 |
|
30-27 |
Loss |
-108 |
53 h 28 m |
Show
|
106 Auburn at Kentucky In our memory we can’t come up with a team that has had as much of a collapse as these Tigers. Thought by many to be a major contender for the national title along with one of the strongest coaching staffs in recent memory. This is a team that has yet to cover a number having lost to the spread by a combined 70 points in five games. The Tigers have been out gained in all but one contest, including last time out against San Jose State. If Auburn didn’t have a +4 turnover edge in that game the Tigers would have lost to a Mountain West Conference team at home. A major reason for the struggles has been the inability to move the ball down the field on a consistent basis. Despite being favored in all but one FBS game this team has allowed 7 more explosive plays than they earned. On the season in FBS games Auburn has yet to have a drive of 80 or more yards. This offense can’t be trusted in the road favorite role.Kentucky had a major scare before the break needing overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky. While it was an obvious look ahead spot with a bye on deck we will stack up the Wildcats work against the Tigers any day. Keep in mind this team lost the turnover battle to Florida and still only lost by 5, being out gained by just 4 yards. The Wildcats also won on the road at South Carolina and beat Missouri. Kentucky is the better team right now as the stats obviously prove. Don’t let the names on the uniforms cost you a money making play on Thursday.PLAY KENTUCKY
|
10-13-15 |
Arkansas State v. South Alabama +4 |
Top |
49-31 |
Loss |
-108 |
7 h 20 m |
Show
|
102 Arkansas State at South Alabama Have not been impressed with the Red Wolves who have failed by 21 points or more to the spread in 3 of 4 FBS contests. This is a team that went 1-3 ATS in the road favorite role in the first season of Blake Anderson’s tenure and was pounded at both USC and Toledo this year. Stepping down in class didn’t help them against Idaho last time out.South Alabama was beaten at Arkansas State last season 45-10, it’s worst defeat of the year. The last time the Jaguars played in Ladd-Peebles Stadium it was crushed by NC State 63-13. This will be a team on a mission here tonight and despite just 5 returning starters from a year ago we find value in the home dog. Despite being a substantial underdog in every game, this is a club that has been able to be competitive in explosive plays, something the Red Wolves have lacked. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA
|
10-10-15 |
UL-Monroe +9.5 v. Tulsa |
|
24-34 |
Loss |
-110 |
30 h 21 m |
Show
|
365 UL Monroe at Tulsa The Warhawks have been pounded on the ground so far this season but lets take a closer look at the opposition. This team has faced Georgia, Alabama and Georgia Southern, all ground based systems that are among the best running teams in the country. ULM will be facing a different type of opponent this week in Tulsa and we can see Todd Berry’s team playing them tooth and nail. Tulsa is making great strides in the first season with Philip Montgomery at the helm. His faced paced offense has really looked impressive in the early going. The only problem is that the Golden Hurricane defense is back on the field regularly with limited rest. It shows as Tulsa has permitted 563, 390, 773 and 638 yards. The 390 game was against a one dimensional New Mexico squad. This Tulsa team is much improved but you simply can’t lay this type of number with such a poor defense. PLAY UL MONROE
|
10-10-15 |
Washington State +17 v. Oregon |
Top |
45-38 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 47 m |
Show
|
359 Washington State at Oregon We all know how dominant the Oregon Ducks have been the past few seasons. But there is one team that has had its number when it comes to covering the spread, the Washington State Cougars. The last five seasons the Cougs have cashed by margins of 16, 15 1/2, 5 1/2, 20 and 15 1/2 points. In what looks to be a down year for Oregon we can see the Cougars taking this one to the wire. When it comes to explosive plays of 20 yards or better against FBS competition Washington State has produced 15 while allowing 14. The Oregon Ducks are at 20 for and 21 against. This team which has lived in the national spotlight has allowed more explosive plays than they themselves earned. Considering that the Ducks were a combined 56 1/2 point favorites in those games tells us that this is a highly overrated squad. We were on Oregon last week against Colorado and while it was a double digit cover we left feeling we may have been a bit lucky. Luck won’t be a factor here as this game will be much closer than the current line suggests. PLAY WASHINGTON STATE
|
10-10-15 |
Connecticut +3 v. Central Florida |
|
40-13 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 46 m |
Show
|
381 Connecticut at Central Florida Wrong team favored here as the Huskies have clearly shown more this season than the Golden Knights. Despite being significant dogs in 3 of 4 FBS contests the Huskies have produced more explosive plays than it allowed. The UConn defense held every opponent under 350 yards until tiring late in the BYU altitude last Saturday. After facing Missouri and BYU on the road this club won’t be intimidated in Orlando. Central Florida has been a huge disappointment this year. Coming in with an 0-5 record with home losses to FIU and Furman. The Knights not only lost on the scoreboard to all five opponents but were also out gained. As opposed to UConn, the Golden Knights have permitted 11 more explosive plays of 20 yards or better than it produced. Wouldn’t surprise us if Connecticut goes off the favorite here. PLAY CONNECTICUT
|
10-10-15 |
UMass v. Bowling Green -13 |
Top |
38-62 |
Win
|
100 |
48 h 48 m |
Show
|
348 Massachusetts at Bowling Green We were higher on UMass than just about anybody coming into the season but we have lessened our enthusiasm. We really think Frohnapfel is a quality signal caller but this team hasn’t put it all together to be the money maker we expected. The team crushed FIU last week while stepping down in class but this defense hasn’t shown any improvement. What’s more troubling is that the Minutemen have only produced one 80 yard or longer drive this season, giving up six in the meantime. This offense should have been explosive but hasn’t lived up to expectations. Bowling Green has simply moved the ball against every opponent on the schedule. Putting up 536 yards or better against everyone. That includes a team from the SEC and two from the Big 10, conferences known for playing quality defense. As opposed to the Minutemen the Falcons already have 12 drives of 80 yards or longer while allowing only three. In a game where big plays will set the tone we will ride the hot handed Falcons as they continue to put up big numbers. PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
10-03-15 |
Oregon -7.5 v. Colorado |
|
41-24 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 44 m |
Show
|
175 Oregon at Colorado What an overreaction from last week’s Duck soup. Sure Oregon has now lost two games this year and are out of the National Championship picture, but this is still an excellent program. The last four years in this series the Ducks were favored by 32 1/2, 39, 47 and 31 points. Oregon outscored Colorado by a combined 216 to 42. The last time Oregon played on the road it took Michigan State to the wire in a game it very easily could have won. Btw, the Spartans are one of the top ranked teams in the nation. The Ducks have only permitted one drive of over 80 yards all season while producing five themselves. Talk about stepping up in class. The Buffalos have played Colorado State, UMass, Hawaii and Nichols State. Despite the lack of quality opposition, Colorado has allowed three more explosive plays than accomplishing themselves. This team just doesn’t have the speed to keep up with this wounded duck who has a huge chip on its shoulder. PLAY OREGON
|
10-03-15 |
Fresno State v. San Diego State -8 |
|
7-21 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 2 m |
Show
|
218 Fresno State at San Diego State There have been some really strange line moves early in the week and this one tops the cake. Why would anyone want any part of this Fresno State squad who has been downright terrible to open the season. The team has used three quarterbacks with not a single one looking competent. The defense hasn’t impressed at all and shows no signs of getting better. San Diego State is the class of this division, and after facing quality foes such as California and Penn State on the road, they can now take out some frustrations. Five straight winning seasons for the Aztecs who are looking at triple revenge against the Bulldogs here. We were considering San Diego State when the opening line of 11 popped up. We love the Aztecs at this lesser number. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
10-03-15 |
UNLV v. Nevada -6.5 |
Top |
23-17 |
Loss |
-106 |
50 h 46 m |
Show
|
216 UNLV at Nevada Wow, what an overreaction from one week ago. The Rebels pounded an FCS squad 80-8, and now money is pouring in on the Rebels and their first year coach hired straight from high school. We have to admit that the effort from the players this season is night and day from previous editions, but it’s not like the recruiting has made great strides in one summer. This is still a program with 2 win seasons in four of the last five years. UNLV had a magical year in 2013 when the team went 7-6 and went bowling. In that year the Rebels beat the Wolf Pack. In the last four years this program didn’t go bowling Nevada won by margins of 22, 5, 37 and 18 points. We were really impressed with the Wolf Pack last week. Going to Buffalo after playing at Texas A&M and having hated in-state rival UNLV on deck. Many thought it was a throwaway game for the Wolf Pack, but that wasn’t the case. Nevada not only played tough but won outright in what could have been a meaningless game. This is a program that has gone bowling in 5 of the last 6 years and has only one losing campaign in the last decade, the 2013 team who lost to the Rebels. Nevada is the better team and this line has overcompensated off one FCS win for UNLV. PLAY NEVADA
|
10-03-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan +3 |
Top |
19-29 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 53 m |
Show
|
170 Northern Illinois at Central Michigan Third straight road game here for the Huskies after traveling to Ohio state and Boston College. In those two games Northern produced 190 and 153 yards against two elite defenses. While they will step down in class here this isn’t your traditional offensive powerhouse. The Huskies are 32-1 against the rest of the MAC but just 1-2 against Central Michigan. Central hasn’t won an FBS game this season but faced Oklahoma State, Syracuse and Michigan State. The combined yardage in those three games was 1203 to 1069 with the underdog Chippewas coming out ahead. Central lost the turnover battle in all three of those games. The Chippewas had three more explosive plays in those games than it allowed, pretty impressive for what was considered a middle of the road MAC school. While Northern has been excellent on the road and does have revenge here we will back the under the radar home dog. PLAY CENTRAL MICHIGAN
|
10-03-15 |
Kansas +17 v. Iowa State |
|
13-38 |
Loss |
-110 |
46 h 47 m |
Show
|
125 Kansas at Iowa State The Jayhawks have dropped something like 30 straight on the road, but looking over the last 2+ seasons we see Kansas with 6 total wins and Iowa State with the same number of victories. The line the last three seasons in this series has been 3, 4 1/2 and 4 1/2. So why the big discrepancy this season? Kansas is what we thought they were, the likely worst team in a power five conference. Not sure Iowa State has improved enough to justify the double digit pointspread movement. Sure the Cyclones are in revenge for a 34-14 Kansas victory a year ago, but this team has been in revenge virtually every game as of late. Iowa State out gained Toledo in an overtime loss two weeks ago before the bye. But we feel the Rockets are one of the most overrated teams in the country. Paul Rhodes needs this win badly, but we can’t see that large a difference between these two programs. Iowa State hasn’t been a double digit favorite in Big 12 action since 2011. PLAY KANSAS
|
10-03-15 |
Houston v. Tulsa OVER 79.5 |
|
38-24 |
Loss |
-106 |
46 h 36 m |
Show
|
149 Houston at Tulsa Both these teams want to play fast under new head coaches. Houston is producing 82, 92 and 78 plays, while Tulsa is producing 86, 89 and 91 plays. Former Ohio State OC Herman has taken over the offense at Houston and you can see how his absence has affected the Buckeyes. While the Houston defense isn’t bad the Golden Hurricane will still find success. In three games for Tulsa there have been 42 explosive plays of 20 yards or better. Tulsa has produced four drives of 80 yards or longer. So this team can sustain a drive and has big play ability. Lots of plays and fast possessions point to a high scoring matchup. PLAY OVER
|
10-03-15 |
South Carolina v. Missouri -2.5 |
|
10-24 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 30 m |
Show
|
188 South Carolina at Missouri This is the worst South Carolina team Steve Spurrier has fielded since taking over the reigns in Columbia 11 years ago. There have been many references the last few years about his love of alcohol and golf interfering with his coaching ability. Even if those rumors are untrue it’s been a quick slide for the Gamecocks after three straight 11 win teams ending in 2013. In measuring explosive plays which are of 20 yards or more the Gamecocks have allowed 20 while producing 16. Not a quality stat for a team that has been favored in 3 of 4 games. But what is more staggering is when you look at sustained drives of 80 yards or more. South Carolina has permitted seven such drives thus far without a single 80 yards or better drive of its own. That tells you the real problem for the Gamecocks, no skill position talent. Missouri is without QB Mauk who was suspended, but that just gives us extra value this week as he has underperformed this season. The Tigers lost last week at Kentucky and Gary Pinkel is 13-3 the last 4+ years ATS off a loss. Off 11 and 12 win seasons the last two years we will back the better team at home. PLAY MISSOURI
|
10-01-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Cincinnati +6.5 |
|
23-34 |
Win
|
100 |
9 h 22 m |
Show
|
104 Miami Florida at Cincinnati The Hurricanes are getting way too much credit in this one as we had this game lined less than a field goal. In two games against FBS opposition this team has a whopping turnover margin of +7. When looking at drives of 80 yards or more Miami has one while allowing the opposition four. Last year Miami won just once outside of the state of Florida and this is the first game this season in which they do so this year. As opposed to the fortunate Hurricanes the Bearcats have lost the turnover battle by a whopping margin of 10 on the season vs FBS squads. Despite that fact this team has only been outscored by 13 points in those games. While the Cincy defense isn’t anything to write home about this offense produced 557, 545 and 752 yards the past three games. The injury to Gunner Kiel hasn’t affected this squad who has averaged over 32 points per game for each of the last four seasons. The Bearcats are 8-4 ATS as home dogs covering the past decade, we look for an outright victory.PLAY CINCINNATI
|
09-26-15 |
Ball State +20 v. Northwestern |
|
19-24 |
Win
|
100 |
52 h 35 m |
Show
|
397 Ball State at Northwestern The Cardinals are the type of team we like in the underdog role. A team that can run the football and shorten the game. So far this season Ball State has run for 5.5 ypc, 6.3 ypc against Texas A&M and 5.3 ypc. Ball State has 18 returning starters from a 5-7 team that actually outscored the opposition on the season. Before that the Cardinals won 19 games total the previous two years. Pete Lembo is coming off his first losing season in Muncie and the Cards are off to a 2-1 start this year. This club is at its best in this role posting a 32-13 ATS mark as a road dog heading into this season. While this is the third straight road game for the Cardinals, this line is highly inflated. Especially for a team in the Wildcats who are a better dog than favorite. Northwestern is 3-0 and nationally ranked. We want no part of teams the first week they enter the Top 25, especially with a club that has been mediocre for much of the last decade. Northwestern is 11-23 as a home favorite the last ten years, which tells you how rare this club is favored and that it’s not their preferred role. With conference action on deck with Minnesota revenge we feel the dog will give the Wildcats fits all day. PLAY BALL STATE
|
09-26-15 |
Arkansas State +7 v. Toledo |
|
7-37 |
Loss |
-106 |
51 h 2 m |
Show
|
335 Arkansas State at Toledo Did you know that despite having a perfect 2-0 record with wins over Arkansas and Iowa State, the Rockets are dead last in the FBS in yardage differential. Toledo is being out gained by a whopping 184.5 yards per contest. Worse than the likes of UNLV, New Mexico State and North Texas. That doesn’t even take into account the opening game against Stony Brook which was cancelled after the half. Toledo was struggling in that contest. So while the Rockets are 2-0 on the year we better not get too overwhelmed by that start on the scoreboard. Arkansas State doesn’t have the gaudy record after playing USC and Missouri. What it does have is GoDaddy Bowl revenge from just a few short months ago as Toledo beat the Red Wolves 63-44. This is a quality program that has produced 35 wins the past four seasons. With lowly Idaho on deck and off a Missouri State blowout victory, we like the underdogs chances on Saturday. Toledo off two Big Five victories with a trip to Ball State on deck. PLAY ARKANSAS STATE
|
09-26-15 |
UMass +29 v. Notre Dame |
|
27-62 |
Loss |
-106 |
47 h 26 m |
Show
|
365 Massachusetts at Notre Dame Little known QB Blake Frohnapfel leads an experienced offensive line with major scoring potential, as the Minutemen look to be a very strong underdog in this contest. After going to Colorado, and then facing a really strong Temple squad, this club won’t be intimidated here. UMass went to Vanderbilt and Penn State last season along with trips to Wisconsin and Kansas State in 2013. Massachusetts returns 19 starters and is always a live dog with the arm of Frohnapfel. The major reason for liking the dog here is the Notre Dame injury situation along with a major sandwich spot. The Irish are dropping like flies this season and need a break in order to get some of these starters back in the lineup. The last thing Brian Kelly wants is to be further depleted with Clemson and USC coming up on the schedule. Notre Dame played a great game a week ago after Malik Zaire went down with an injury. The team rallied behind the QB and beat a really good Georgia Tech team. That was a statement game for Notre Dame with another circled game on deck vs Clemson. Kelly and his troops know this game can be won by handing the ball off and keeping the clock moving. Get out of this game healthy and get ready for the Clemson Tigers. Throw in the fact that the Irish are 18-32 ATS as home favorites and the dog gets our full attention. PLAY MASSACHUSETTS
|
09-26-15 |
Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 59.5 |
|
30-27 |
Loss |
-110 |
47 h 17 m |
Show
|
393 Oklahoma State at Texas Texas had 52 plays in the opener vs Notre Dame and only 38 against Rice. The Longhorns put up 83 plays last week against California. With Heard taking over at QB for Texas this team put up 42 points and 44 points the past two weeks. The change at signal caller has been drastic for this squad as the total Notre Dame dominance in the opener with Swoops behind center is a distant memory. Last year both these teams struggled offensively in comparison to previous seasons. We feel both offenses are on the uptick. Oklahoma State returns eight offensive starters and QB Mason Rudolph led this team to 578 and 534 yards the past two weeks. The Cowboys are finding themselves offensively and this isn’t even close to the Texas defense that held them to just 192 yards a season ago. Texas ranks 119th this season allowing over 500 yards per game. We expect a shootout. PLAY OVER
|
09-26-15 |
Central Michigan v. Michigan State -26.5 |
Top |
10-30 |
Loss |
-110 |
69 h 36 m |
Show
|
316 Central Michigan at Michigan State Very surprised by the shortness in this line as we have two sets of power ratings supporting numbers of 35 and 38. Central Michigan has faced Oklahoma State who had struggled offensively until last week, Monmouth and Syracuse which has been very injury prone at quarterback. While it’s an in-state game the Chippewas do have Northern Illinois on deck and the Huskies have major revenge for a home field loss a year ago. The last time Central played a Top 20 team on the road it lost at Michigan by 50 points in 2013. That team is very similar to the squad John Bonamego took over this year.Michigan State is 8-3 ATS installed as a double digit favorite, and 8-2 ATS when facing opposition from the state of Michigan. The Western Michigan Broncos stayed under the number opening week here but that was the game prior to Oregon for the Spartans. With only Purdue on deck there is no lookahead for Michigan State. Last week in a post Oregon situation the Spartans were favored by 24 1/2 vs Air Force. Now the line is only slightly higher against a team we rate 8 points worse than the fly boys. Big edge here for the host.PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
09-19-15 |
SMU v. TCU OVER 66 |
|
37-56 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 13 m |
Show
|
187 SMU at TCU Over Chad Morris in his first year in Dallas has this team on the rise. The former Clemson OC has the Mustangs playing a much faster pace after this club amazingly averaged only 11.1 points per game a year ago. SMU held it’s own against Baylor and pulled away late against North Texas. The offense looks night and day different than a year ago and we have value right now playing this SMU squad over. TCU has scored 56 and 48 points the last two years against SMU. With a much faster pace from the opposition we can look for even more scoring for the Horned Frogs. But while SMU was held to a combined 17 the last two years in this series, we expect at least 20 and probably more from SMU on Saturday. TCU returned just 5 starters on the defensive line from a year ago, and we see this unit being weaker this season. Minnesota and Stephen F Austin didn’t expose TCU but a good passing game from the Mustangs certainly can. This one will be a shootout as the dog will never quit trying to get into the end zone. PLAY OVER
|
09-19-15 |
Stanford +10 v. USC |
|
41-31 |
Win
|
100 |
54 h 9 m |
Show
|
195 Stanford at USC We make lines on every game in college football before the start of the season. Our preseason line on this game was USC favored by 4. Now we are catching many more points based on what we have seen the first two weeks of the season. While we can see the line being slightly higher we feel this is a major overreaction. The last five meetings in this series have been decided by margins of 3, 3, 7, 8 in triple overtime and 2. The spreads have been 3, 3, 8, 7 and 10. So regardless of how either one of these teams has been viewed by the betting public the results all point to one outcome. These programs are on equal footing, which makes this line out of whack. Stanford lost to what we feel is a pretty good Northwestern team who had a big time zone advantage. This squad returns nine offensive starters from a team that has won 42 games the past four years under David Shaw. USC is taking a major step up in opposition here after taking on Arkansas State and Idaho the first two weeks. Keep in mind although USC beat Stanford 13-10 last year the Cardinal was the better team on the field. Many missed opportunities and poor red zone play cost Stanford that game. The last three meetings have resulted in Trojans points scored of 13, 20 and 14. Tough to lay this number when you have struggled to score against this opponent. PLAY STANFORD
|
09-19-15 |
Texas Tech v. Arkansas -11.5 |
|
35-24 |
Loss |
-110 |
53 h 25 m |
Show
|
170 Texas Tech at Arkansas What do you know, Texas Tech has looked lights out against Sam Houston State and UTEP. That’s typical Red Raiders football as this team piles on the points against weak opposition but struggles mightily against the big boys. This team is 8-15 as a road underdog and 16-9 at a road favorite. Those stats cover the past ten years and three head coaches. Texas Tech is an easy team to handicap. Play on them against teams that lack depth and play against them when facing physical squads. Bret Bielema took his Wisconsin experience to Fayetteville a couple years ago and installed a massive offensive line and a major running game. This year he’s adding a passing attack that can put him equal to or surpass the Alabama Crimson Tide. Last week facing a MAC team his thought process had to be that it was an ideal squad to open up the passing game against. So instead of running the ball down the throats of a smaller team Bielema made the mistake of passing on a team from a passing conference. That mistake cost the Razorbacks the game and gives us value here. PLAY ARKANSAS
|
09-19-15 |
Auburn +7 v. LSU |
|
21-45 |
Loss |
-105 |
50 h 51 m |
Show
|
149 Auburn at LSU Just a couple weeks ago Auburn was considered a major national title contender. Now after having to go to overtime to beat Jacksonville State this team is being left for dead. Classic sandwich situation for the Tigers last week off a nationally televised game against Louisville and LSU this week. Keep in mind that Jacksonville State is a powerhouse in the FCS and would be favored over many FBS squads. This is a good team that Auburn obviously took for granted. Now with something to prove we expect a huge effort from the team that clobbered LSU 41-7 a year ago. Sure LSU has embarrassing revenge, but this game not being played at night in the Bayou which is a missed opportunity for LSU. It’s win percentage is significantly better in night games as opposed to afternoon affairs. LSU held on against what we feel is a weaker Mississippi State team last week and Les Miles is just 25-36 ATS as a home favorite in his tenure in Baton Rouge. Auburn has cashed the last three meetings and we feel this line is at least a field goal too high. PLAY AUBURN
|
09-19-15 |
Texas-San Antonio v. Oklahoma State -24.5 |
Top |
14-69 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 4 m |
Show
|
156 UTSA at Oklahoma State The Roadrunners went from being the most veteran team in college football to the youngest this year. Just five returning starters for UTSA. We went against this team a week ago because we weren’t buying into the competitive game against Arizona in the opener. Just as we predicted, the Kansas State Wildcats wore down this lack of quality depth squad, and won and covered for our backers. Now we have a team who has only been in the FBS for five years playing three straight games against power five conferences. Oklahoma State has underperformed to start the season, failing to cover by double digits against Central Michigan and Central Arkansas. So we have a motivated favorite with clear skill position edges, taking on a team that they beat by 30 and 21 points each of the last two years. With upcoming opponents Texas and Kansas State looking down from previous years the Roadrunners get the full attention of the Cowboys here. Under Mike Gundy the Cowboys are 28-15 ATS as home favorites. PLAY OKLAHOMA STATE
|
09-19-15 |
Illinois +9.5 v. North Carolina |
|
14-48 |
Loss |
-115 |
46 h 29 m |
Show
|
125 Illinois at North Carolina The coaching change at Illinois right before the season has turned around a recently weak program and made the team believers. Tim Beckman was disliked by his players to put it mildly and since his firing the team has played amazing football. Much of this line is attributed to the terrible Illini road play under Beckman. But with renewed vigor we can see this team turning that negative around. North Carolina is a talented offensive team and the change at defensive coordinator is sure to be a plus. But we want no part of the Tar Heels laying points as they have been nothing special out of conference. This team looked good in the opener against South Carolina, but we aren’t high at all on the Gamecocks this season. Despite the high number of returning starters this Tar Heels team is overrated in our opinion. Too many points to lay into a confident team. PLAY ILLINOIS
|
09-19-15 |
Tulsa +31 v. Oklahoma |
|
38-52 |
Win
|
100 |
46 h 26 m |
Show
|
131 Tulsa at Oklahoma Golden Hurricane new head coach Philip Montgomery likes to play fast and his team so far has bought into the quicker pace. He was the offensive coordinator at Baylor and before that worked on that side of the ball at Houston. He knows how to put points on the board quickly which is what makes Tulsa a dangerous dog. Oklahoma is off what Bob Stoops called possibly his most satisfying victory in his career. Considering he has been at Oklahoma 17 years shows just how big that comeback overtime win was last week at Tennessee. He despises the SEC and was really pointing towards that game. Now facing a major letdown the Sooners are laying a huge number to a team it beat by 45 and 31 points the past two years. With an off week on deck do you really think these players are focused on Tulsa? Major letdown situation for the Sooners here against a live dog that can put points on the board. PLAY TULSA
|
09-12-15 |
Pittsburgh v. Akron +12 |
Top |
24-7 |
Loss |
-106 |
31 h 14 m |
Show
|
368 Pittsburgh at Akron A year ago the Zips shocked Pitt on the road. A huge win for the Akron program and an embarrassment for the Pitt faithful. So the first thing many will say about this contest is Pittsburgh revenge. While that’s certainly true we look at it another way. Akron gained a great amount of confidence with that victory and knows they can play with the Panthers. Especially considering Pitt is without it’s best offensive player at running back. Pitt struggled with Youngstown State last week and we really like that Penguins squad. Akron despite the score at Oklahoma really shut down the Sooners running game. The Zips brought in Power Five Conference transfers along the defensive line and the team is much better against the run. With strength on strength in the trenches we will gladly take the double digits at home with an Akron squad playing a huge out of conference opponent. PLAY AKRON
|
09-12-15 |
San Diego State +14 v. California |
Top |
7-35 |
Loss |
-105 |
30 h 24 m |
Show
|
357 San Diego State at California Rocky Long is one of our favorite college football coaches. While others will avoid uncomfortable questions Long seems to relish them. At the Mountain West Conference media day he told us the only way a team from his conference would ever get into the National Championship Playoff would be if its expanded to eight teams. He rolled his eyes when he talked of the Power Five Conferences letting a team from outside in the four team playoff. After last weeks game against San Diego he said his team didn’t show anything, playing vanilla the whole game. Cal is just 3-10 SU & ATS at home under Sonny Dykes in his two years in Berkeley. He has another outstanding offense but his defense the last two years permitted 39.8 and 45.9 points per game. Not enamored laying double digits with a defense that can’t tackle. PLAY SAN DIEGO STATE
|
09-12-15 |
Notre Dame v. Virginia +11.5 |
|
34-27 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 3 m |
Show
|
354 Notre Dame at Virginia Can’t go wrong going against a very public team after an outstanding performance the prior week. And while it’s clear the Irish have a talented and deep squad, much of its success last week was because Texas was simply terrible. The scheduling spot is a tough one as well, as the Irish played a traditional powerhouse in Texas and must face the Georgia Tech option next week. The depth for Notre Dame is already being tested as the team is down to its third string running back. Mike London isn’t very popular among many pundits we like like him just fine. He’s a dangerous underdog and we have made good money backing Virginia with him at the helm. Notre Dame is not a good road favorite, in fact, not a good chalk regardless of location. We expect this one to be a one score outcome. PLAY VIRGINIA
|
09-12-15 |
Kansas State -16.5 v. Texas-San Antonio |
|
30-3 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 39 m |
Show
|
327 Kansas State at Texas San Antonio Despite a 34-0 win last week over South Dakota, the Wildcats only won the yardage battle by 69. That did not please coach Snyder and we see him getting these kids fired up during practice this week. QB Ertz was knocked out of the game last week, but our contacts told us there wasn’t really a number one quarterback coming out of camp. So we get the pointspread advantage of a backup quarterback without it really being much of a drop off. This is a familiar site for Kansas State as it played in the Alamo Bowl here at the end of last season. While the Roadrunners looked good last week they faced what we consider a weak Arizona defense who lost its All-American Scooby Wright early in the game. Without Wright the defense played wrong all afternoon. (You see what we did there?) This team went from being the most veteran in college football a year ago with 20 returning starters to the youngest this season with just 5 returners. Overreaction to Texas San Antonio as the Wildcats dominate. PLAY KANSAS STATE
|
09-12-15 |
Bowling Green +7.5 v. Maryland |
Top |
48-27 |
Win
|
100 |
25 h 54 m |
Show
|
369 Bowling Green at Maryland The Falcons got better as the season went on a year ago and we feel the peak has yet to be reached. Looking to play as fast as possible the Falcons tired a bit as the game went along last week at Tennessee. Keep in mind the Bowling Green depth is nowhere near that of an SEC squad. While Maryland looked good last week we’re not buying the Terrapins laying this type of price. Maryland is a team that can’t be trusted as the squad still doesn’t have enough quality depth. Playing a team like Bowling Green can easily exploit that weakness. Don’t look for the Falcons to fade in this one as it goes down to the wire. PLAY BOWLING GREEN
|
09-05-15 |
Mississippi State v. Southern Miss +21 |
Top |
34-16 |
Win
|
100 |
80 h 11 m |
Show
|
204 Mississippi State at Southern Miss Two teams heading in opposite directions yet the betting line hasn’t caught up to the changes. Southern Miss had an excellent program not too long ago but fell on hard times. Now we look for SM to continue the better play from a year ago. The Golden Eagles bring back 15 starters as well as three transfers from the power five conferences. Overall 9 of 10 offensive linemen return along with much better depth all around, including the quarterback position. It’s the third year of coach Todd Monken’s system which should be a big plus. Mississippi State was once the top rated team in the nation last year but consistently faded as the season unfolded. Excellent QB Prescott returns along with a talented offense, but this defense has many question marks. It wore down as the season unfolded and the true depth of this team is a mystery. Manny Diaz is back as defensive coordinator after leaving Louisiana Tech. He will get the best of these players as the season unfolds but we’re not sold at this point. A lack of depth in the front seven tells us that the Golden Eagles can keep the chains moving.PLAY SOUTHERN MISS
|
09-05-15 |
Old Dominion v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 65.5 |
|
38-34 |
Loss |
-106 |
136 h 32 m |
Show
|
162 Old Dominion at Eastern Michigan The Monarchs will be playing more of a ball control offense this season after the graduation of the All-Conference Center and QB Taylor Heinicke who was a four year starter. Old Dominion will have a new quarterback who has never taken a snap at this level. In fact, the two players looking for snaps were a 2 star recruit by rivals and a non-recruit. The defense has given up more points per game than the prior season in four straight years but the team couldn’t get a set lineup last year because of injuries. So with more depth this season we expect the Monarchs to turn that around. Eastern Michigan’s defense improved by 4.3 points per game last year despite playing at Florida, at Michigan State and facing top tier offenses in the MAC away from Rynearson Stadium. This is a team with 8 defensive starters returning which is more than any season since 2009. Our contacts have been impressed by the strides this defense has made in the off-season and with the Monarchs breaking in a new signal caller we expect the Eagles to hold them in check. The last two years Eastern Michigan averaged 15.2 and 18.8 points per game. This is not a quality offense at this time despite the excitement of QB Reginald Bell. Just 5 returning starters and six straight years of averaging less than 22 points per game. The defense will keep the Eagles close but the offense may not have the talent to produce victories.PLAY UNDER
|
09-03-15 |
TCU v. Minnesota +14.5 |
Top |
23-17 |
Win
|
100 |
78 h 44 m |
Show
|
142 TCU at Minnesota Since I do a lot of betting on Games of the Year releases months before the season starts, I have found that fading the expected dominant teams adds to my great success. It also includes early season match ups, especially week one. For an example look at how everyone thought of Florida State a year ago. There was nowhere to go but down. The same is true of Ohio State and TCU this season. Keep in mind Ohio State was a 12 1/2 point favorite in Minnesota last year and won by a touchdown. Now we have TCU laying more than that against a better Golden Gophers squad. TCU was the luckiest team in college football last year with turnovers at +6.3 points per game. The starters last year were very fortunate with injuries losing only eight combined games across the entire season. The team also led the country in field position advantage at +9.9, far surpassing the rest of the NCAA. The team lost its longtime defensive coordinator and tons of talent to the NFL from that side of the ball. Only 1 of the top 7 tacklers return. This is the best team yet for Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill. With a terrific secondary that matches up very well with the Horned Frogs. Minnesota also competes well with the TCU special teams, and not many other units across the country can say that. Playing a team with the fast tempo of TCU right now is the ideal time of year to do so. Lots of time to prepare the players as opposed to the middle of the season. Minnesota is a well balanced team that can give this overrated Horned Frogs squad all it can handle. The 23 point loss at TCU last year was by far the biggest loss margin on the season, so Minnesota has this game circled. Keep in mind Minnesota only lost to Ohio State by 7 and by 10 at Wisconsin last year. The Gophers are on an 8-1 ATS run as a double digit dogs. PLAY MINNESOTA
|
01-12-15 |
Ohio State +7 v. Oregon |
|
42-20 |
Win
|
100 |
7 h 17 m |
Show
|
277 Ohio State & Oregon This game has been broken down and dissected all week throughout the media and fandom. Therefore we won’t bore you with details. Simply put the Buckeyes in our eyes have a sizable big game experience edge at head coach. A coach who has excelled in big games and in the role of an underdog. Ohio State is the more physical team and likely to slow down the Ducks by having success on the ground. Getting close to a touchdown here is an overlay for two teams that we feel are far closer to equal at this point of the season.PLAY OHIO STATE
|
01-01-15 |
Wisconsin v. Auburn -6 |
|
34-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
215 h 55 m |
Show
|
256 Wisconsin & Auburn at Tampa Normally we would jump all over a good team who was embarrassed last time out, as Wisconsin was by Ohio State. But since that game the coach has left and we have serious concerns about the lack of team speed on this Badgers team. That was one reason why this club struggled so badly against the Buckeyes. Teams that spread the field have given Wisconsin fits. And it must be mentioned that the Badgers have one of the worst bowl records in the nation. Auburn started the season strong and scuffled down the stretch, exactly the type of team we like to back in bowl season. This team has a ton of talent and has something to prove after being in the national title mix. This number is cheap in a Big 10/SEC matchup. PLAY AUBURN
|
12-30-14 |
Notre Dame +7.5 v. LSU |
|
31-28 |
Win
|
100 |
170 h 5 m |
Show
|
243 Notre Dame & LSU at Nashville A nice bowl money maker over the years is playing on teams who struggled down the stretch. And Notre Dame certainly qualifies after starting the year strong and falling apart in the second half of the season. That gives us a focused team in this contest along with nice line value as bettors tend to remember what they have seen recently. And recently the Irish have underperformed. LSU is a young team that has gotten better week by week. Which is why this line is a bit inflated in our eyes. While it’s true this isn’t the same team as it was early on, it’s still a young team with many key players going bowling for the very first time. We will back the more veteran Irish in a game we are sure they have the higher focus. PLAY NOTRE DAME
|
12-29-14 |
Texas +6.5 v. Arkansas |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-115 |
155 h 31 m |
Show
|
241 Texas & Arkansas at Houston With the total sitting in the 45 range, points become very valuable in this contest. Both teams improved as the season went on and are now about where we projected both to be at the beginning of the season. While next year looks bright for both these clubs there is still one game to play. We really like the job Strong did for the Longhorns as he cleaned house early and often. After a slow start to the season this team started buying into his system. With both teams having excellent defenses we prefer the team who can throw the ball as Arkansas is a bit one-dimensional offensively. In a low scoring slugfest we will take the points with what we consider an equal team playing in its home state. PLAY TEXAS
|
12-29-14 |
Clemson v. Oklahoma -3.5 |
|
40-6 |
Loss |
-105 |
151 h 12 m |
Show
|
240 Clemson & Oklahoma in Orlando Handicapping Clemson is very simple. With Watson this is a dynamic offense that can move the ball on anyone. With Stout this is a team that struggles to move the ball and can be beaten by anyone. The defense is outstanding but you can only do so much when the offense continues to put you in poor field position. The drop off at quarterback is about the largest in college football. Oklahoma looked like one of the best teams in the nation early on but struggled down the stretch. But with the QB returning, and the poor run giving us great line value we love the favorite here. The Sooners were embarrassed by its play against Oklahoma State and can’t wait to get back on the field here. Everything we have read supports a very positive effort from Oklahoma. Motivation is key and Clemson can’t be overly excited here with Watson electing surgery now as opposed to waiting till the season ends. Clemson got their big victory over South Carolina, time to enjoy Mickey Mouse and company. PLAY OKLAHOMA
|
12-27-14 |
Miami (Fla) v. South Carolina +3.5 |
|
21-24 |
Win
|
100 |
117 h 14 m |
Show
|
232 Miami Florida & South Carolina in Shreveport Miami has taken early money in this matchup which isn’t much of a surprise as the Hurricanes have taken money most of the season. While Miami is a talented team it has continued to underperform when stepping up in class. Constant double digit losses can only mean the talent level on this team is higher in expectations than reality. South Carolina has played the tougher schedule and has four losses of a touchdown or less. This is a team that remains competitive in far more games than the Hurricanes. It’s also a rare occasion when a team from the SEC is installed as an underdog in a bowl game. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA
|
12-24-14 |
Fresno State +2.5 v. Rice |
|
6-30 |
Loss |
-102 |
55 h 18 m |
Show
|
219 Fresno State & Rice in Honolulu First island bowl game in a while for Rice who will obviously enjoy the surroundings more than Fresno State, who has played in this bowl before and makes trips here every other year. The Bulldogs have slight edges in offense and defense and a substantial advantage in special teams as it’s an Owl weakness. Fresno State is also an underdog who has played the stronger strength of schedule. Fresno was embarrassed in the post season a year ago. This is the team that has more to prove in the contest. PLAY FRESNO STATE
|
12-20-14 |
Utah -2.5 v. Colorado State |
Top |
45-10 |
Win
|
100 |
49 h 54 m |
Show
|
205 Utah at Colorado State A bit surprised by the line movement on this one as the head coach-less Rams have been taking money, knocking this line down to 3 in the process. Colorado State gets to play in Las Vegas every other year and the holiday travel of this game could be a chore for Rams backers. Playing in the Mountain West Conference also means Colorado State played the weaker of the two schedules.Utah on the other hand has sold out its allotment of tickets as the Top 20 ranked basketball team is also playing in Vegas this weekend. That adds to the excitement for the Utes faithful. While Colorado State throws the ball well it rarely sees the pressure Utah will bring defensively. Utah has always traveled well to this location in past years as part of the Mountain West and we expect them to have a solid advantage in the stands. We know Utah is excited to be here, not so sure with a Colorado State team with a coach that left for Florida.PLAY UTAH
|
12-06-14 |
Wisconsin v. Ohio State +4.5 |
Top |
0-59 |
Win
|
100 |
55 h 27 m |
Show
|
128 Wisconsin at Ohio State The Badgers for the most part are a one dimensional team with a terrific running attack. The featured rusher twisted his ankle late in the game last week which could be a problem here for Gordan and the Badgers. Regardless of who is running the football for Wisconsin the Buckeyes know defensive priority number one. Ohio State is down to its third quarterback of the season but Jones was battling neck and neck with Barrett before the season started. He doesn’t have the legs of the previous two signal callers but he does have a strong arm. Urban Meyer has been a major money maker for bettors over the years and now he has the opportunity to win as an underdog. When nobody gives Meyer a shot that’s exactly when we want to back him. Ort numbers say the line change of 7 points because of the QB situation is about 3 points too high. We will gladly take Ohio State as an underdog in this contest. PLAY OHIO STATE
|
12-06-14 |
Louisiana Tech +11 v. Marshall |
|
23-26 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 23 m |
Show
|
121 La Tech at Marshall In was clear that Marshall looked past Western Kentucky last week and the Thundering Herd paid for it in a major way losing in overtime as a huge favorite. Marshall fell behind early and laid it all on the line to try to save its undefeated season and a chance to play in a major bowl. That dream crushing loss is sure to be evident here against a team on the rise in Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs have quietly become a very good football team again this year and a real money maker for its backers. This team has the firepower to match the Herd here and a defense that is improving by the week. We are catching a quality tram here against a Marshall squad who hasn’t played a complete game in quite a long time. PLAY LOUISIANA TECH
|
12-05-14 |
Arizona +15 v. Oregon |
|
13-51 |
Loss |
-110 |
33 h 34 m |
Show
|
107 Arizona & Oregon at Santa Clara To knock off heavily favored Oregon last year was an accomplishment, to do so again this year brings validity. The Wildcats and Rich Rodriguez match up extremely well with Oregon as Rich Rod’s knowledge of this system has been a major key. He implemented this style of play back when he roamed the sidelines at West Virginia, and because of that he’s able to defense it. Arizona will come into this game with as much confidence as a two touchdown underdog can possibly have, while Oregon must be a bit skittish against the only team who have been able to beat them as of late. PLAY ARIZONA
|
11-29-14 |
Michigan State -13.5 v. Penn State |
Top |
34-10 |
Win
|
100 |
5 h 22 m |
Show
|
399 Michigan State at Penn State The Spartans have been dominant ever since losing to Ohio State. The defense has stepped up and the offense gets better every week. This is a good matchup for the visitor as Penn State has had trouble protecting the quarterback all season. This line is similar to the one when Ohio State visited Happy Valley. But the major differences are Michigan State has a more experienced quarterback that can take advantage of a Penn State defense that hasn’t faced many quality scoring units this season. This game is in the afternoon while the Buckeye game was a rare night contest. That was a major edge for the Nittany Lions that won’t be repeated here. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE
|
11-29-14 |
Syracuse v. Boston College -11.5 |
|
7-28 |
Win
|
100 |
3 h 34 m |
Show
|
348 Syracuse at Boston College The Orangemen have a laundry list of injuries for this game. The head coach said it’s the most beat up team he has seen in his 24 years of coaching. A 3rd or 4th string player is starting at QB and MLB, two of the most important positions on a football team. The offense has really struggled as of late and will be in for a long day against this Boston College stop unit. BC on the other hand has the power running game to wear out a thin Syracuse defense. The constant pounding should really open up big holes in the second half of the game. PLAY BOSTON COLLEGE
|
11-28-14 |
Northern Illinois +8 v. Western Michigan |
Top |
31-21 |
Win
|
100 |
47 h 33 m |
Show
|
319 Northern Illinois at Western Michigan Experience counts and that’s a big edge for the Huskies players and coaches. Northern Illinois has dominated this league the past number of seasons, playing and winning big games on a consistent basis. After a slow start to the season as expected, the Huskies are right back where they normally are, playing a huge game late in the season.Western Michigan has been a big money maker for backers this season with some spots showing the Broncos undefeated against the spread. While on the surface that would be a terrific thing based on the past, but just the opposite when looking towards the future. Everyone who has been riding the Western Michigan money machine will be back for more here, which will and has pumped up this line. That gives a pointspread advantage to the much more experienced team. The Broncos had a great recruiting class this year and the future looks extremely bright. But this team just doesn’t have the experience to play in this type of game against a club who expected to be here where the season started. PLAY NORTHERN ILLINOIS
|
11-22-14 |
New Mexico v. Colorado State OVER 66.5 |
|
20-58 |
Win
|
100 |
20 h 54 m |
Show
|
163 New Mexico at Colorado State When it comes to Lobo games our first instinct is to take a look at the Over. New Mexico has an outstanding running attack that averages 6.3 yards per carry. The problem with the Lobos is that they are equally bad at stopping the run allowing 6.0 ypr. When facing defenses rated at #90 or worse the Lobos have scored 24, 38, 31 and 31 points. The Rams have third third best offense New Mexico has faced this year. In the other two games against Top 60 offenses they permitted 58 and 60 points. Colorado State is coming in off a bye which should prepare them a bit better for this option attack, it also doesn’t hurt to have another option team with Air Force on deck. But the Rams allow 4.5 ypr on the season despite facing a slew of bad running football teams. When facing defenses ranked 80 or worse Colorado State has scored 42, 31, 45, 38 and 49 points. Last year these two clubs combined for 108 points. We are looking at a repeat in that point range. PLAY OVER
|
11-22-14 |
Rutgers v. Michigan State -22 |
|
3-45 |
Win
|
100 |
18 h 28 m |
Show
|
134 Rutgers at Michigan State The beat up Rutgers defense was able to survive against a weak passing one dimensional Indiana team. But that won’t be repeated here against Michigan State still trying to take out some frustrations off that Ohio State loss. The Spartans cannot only pound the rock with success but have a passing game to extend the margin. Rutgers is wearing out in its first year in the physical Big 10 Conference and we expect that to continue here. When facing a defense not ranked in the Top 50 in the nation, Michigan State has scored 73, 56, 45 and 56 points. Not only do we feel the Spartans will cover this number, they have a decent chance of taking this total over just by themselves. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE PLAY OVER
|
11-22-14 |
Rutgers v. Michigan State OVER 56.5 |
|
3-45 |
Loss |
-110 |
18 h 27 m |
Show
|
134 Rutgers at Michigan State The beat up Rutgers defense was able to survive against a weak passing one dimensional Indiana team. But that won’t be repeated here against Michigan State still trying to take out some frustrations off that Ohio State loss. The Spartans cannot only pound the rock with success but have a passing game to extend the margin. Rutgers is wearing out in its first year in the physical Big 10 Conference and we expect that to continue here. When facing a defense not ranked in the Top 50 in the nation, Michigan State has scored 73, 56, 45 and 56 points. Not only do we feel the Spartans will cover this number, they have a decent chance of taking this total over just by themselves. PLAY MICHIGAN STATE PLAY OVER
|
11-21-14 |
UTEP v. Rice OVER 51.5 |
|
13-31 |
Loss |
-110 |
27 h 10 m |
Show
|
117 UTEP at Rice The Miners have moved the ball at will against the majority of opposition this year, putting up 26 points or better against all but one opponent. In fact, only two games all season stayed under the current line on this contest. In those two games the opposition was Southern Miss and UTSA, two of the weakest offensive units in college football. Rice has been able to put points on the board when not stepping up in class against the likes of Marshall, Notre Dame and Texas A&M. In games against similar talented defenses as UTEP only once all season have the Owls not reached 28 points in a contest. The last five meetings in this series has resulted in point totals of 52, 57, 78, 68 and 59 points. In our opinion this number is cheap.PLAY OVER
|
11-15-14 |
Utah v. Stanford UNDER 43 |
Top |
20-17 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 48 m |
Show
|
356 Utah at Stanford The Utes had held every opponent faced to 28 points or less this season until that debacle last week against Oregon. We all know how that turned out after we all thought Utah had a 14-0 lead over the Ducks. Stanford has one of the weaker offensive games in which Utah has faced this year. Coming off an embarrassing performance we expect this defense to step up against a manageable foe. Stanford when facing offenses not ranked in the Top 30 have permitted zero to Army, 20 to Washington, 17 against Washington State and 14 against Oregon State. When facing a Top 30 defense Stanford has managed just 10 against USC, 20 vs Washington, 14 vs Notre Dame and 16 against Oregon. Coming off a bye after allowing a whopping 45 points to Oregon we know the defense will be primed for a bounce back. PLAY UNDER
|
11-15-14 |
Rice v. Marshall -21 |
Top |
14-41 |
Win
|
100 |
27 h 60 m |
Show
|
376 Rice at Marshall The Rice Owls have been a nice story this season, but the fairy tail ends on Saturday. In looking over the Owls schedule one thing stands out, the lack of offense against somewhat quality defenses. When facing Top 75 defenses Rice has scored 17 against Notre Dame, 17 vs Texas San Antonio and 10 vs Texas A&M. That’s it. This team has feasted on bad defensive teams and Marshall will be the second best stop unit Rice has faced this year. When facing Top 75 offenses Rice has permitted 48, 38 and 45 points in the three games against somewhat quality scoring units. Marshall as we know is an elite offense despite having faced an equally poor schedule. Marshall is averaging 48 points per game, having scored 35 or more against every single opponent. The Thundering Herd also has a huge edge in special teams as the Owls are among the worst in the country in the third phase of the game. Add it all up and Marshall wins in a complete mismatch. PLAY MARSHALL
|
11-15-14 |
Temple v. Penn State UNDER 39 |
|
13-30 |
Loss |
-104 |
25 h 0 m |
Show
|
324 Temple at Penn State If you are looking for offense this is going to be a long and boring contest. Penn State played one terrible defensive team this year, Massachusetts. In that game the Nittany Lions scored 48 points. In every other game this season Penn State has averaged less than 17 points per game. While the Penn State offense is horrible the defense has been outstanding. When facing what we consider to be a Top 50 defense the Owls have scored 10 vs Houston, 14 against Central Florida and 13 vs Memphis. This Penn State stop unit is a step above each of those. PLAY UNDER
|
11-14-14 |
Tulsa v. Central Florida OVER 55 |
|
7-31 |
Loss |
-109 |
32 h 26 m |
Show
|
317 Tulsa at Central Florida We believe too much emphasis on this total is attributed to early season Central Florida opposition. The Knights started the year against Penn State, Missouri, Houston and BYU. All teams that play pretty good defense. That has contributed majorly to the poor Central Florida offensive numbers. Since that time we have seen total points scored of 33, 48 and 66 against questionable offensive teams of Connecticut, Tulane and Temple. Now we get the best of both worlds with a weak Tulsa defense but an offense that can put up some points.In Tulsa’s two games against very good defenses 59 and 60 points were scored. But here is the real kicker. Against bad offensive teams Tulsa games have ended up with 69, 71, 59, 68 and 66 points. So even poor offensive teams can have success against this Golden Hurricane stop unit. This is a stand alone game on Friday night so you know the total is going to rise. Let’s get this one out now as obviously the Florida weather won’t be a factor.PLAY OVER
|
11-13-14 |
East Carolina v. Cincinnati OVER 68 |
Top |
46-54 |
Win
|
100 |
8 h 3 m |
Show
|
311 East Carolina at Cincinnati These two teams have plenty in common when it comes to playing quality offenses, a plethora of points will be scored. Because of the general weakness of the offenses faced with these schedules the true offensive prowess of these clubs has been a bit overlooked. Against what is considered Top 50 Offensive squads these two clubs have combined for point totals of 56 and 111 for East Carolina and 92, 78 and 89 for Cincinnati. With neither of these teams ranking in the top half of defensive rankings we can look for an old fashioned shootout in this televised contest. PLAY OVER
|
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois OVER 58.5 |
|
24-27 |
Loss |
-112 |
9 h 6 m |
Show
|
303 Toledo at Northern Illinois Huge game in the division as Toledo stands 5-0 and the surging Huskies 4-1. While Northern Illinois has had great success in this conference over the last few years and Toledo has taken money virtually every week, we will look in another direction with our selection. Both teams have dynamic offenses with both able to wear out a defense with its ground game. Neither stop unit has been overly impressive this season and can be exploited. While we normally look for a conservative game plan in such a key matchup, we feel both coaches know the best way to success is relying on strong offenses. We expect this one to be a shootout.PLAY OVER
|
11-08-14 |
Florida v. Vanderbilt +14.5 |
Top |
34-10 |
Loss |
-106 |
32 h 21 m |
Show
|
136 Florida at Vanderbilt Nice spot to go against the Gators here off big upset win over Georgia last week. That victory could go a long way in saving the head coaches job, but we’re not buying into a Gator turnaround. This is still a team who has serious offensive flaws and is in a spot to take the Commodores lightly. Many times when handicapping sports your first impressions are hard to ignore. Take Vanderbilt for instance. This is a team that fell off a cliff after the coaching change and looked as disorganized as possible in the early going. But teams tend to improve the second half of the season with new coaching staffs and become a nice play on squad getting inflated numbers. That’s exactly what we have here as we can see a different Commodore team than early in the year. Let’s take advantage and grab the home dog who has played hard all season. PLAY VANDERBILT
|
11-08-14 |
Louisiana Monroe +4.5 v. Appalachian State |
|
29-31 |
Win
|
100 |
29 h 33 m |
Show
|
131 UL Monroe at Appalachian State In our opinion this line is an overreaction to App State’s success the last two weeks against Troy and Georgia State, two teams who have thrown in the towel on the season. Keep in mind the Hilltoppers have lost to the likes of Southern Miss and Liberty this year. While Appalachian State has a solid running game it’s the Warhawks who own the better defense. App State is just 2-2 straight up at home and this line has been over adjusted off of beating up two weak opponents. The Warhawks stood toe to toe with Texas A&M last week and are not getting the credit they deserve. An outright win would not be a surprise. PLAY UL MONROE
|
11-08-14 |
Texas A&M v. Auburn OVER 68 |
|
41-38 |
Win
|
100 |
28 h 11 m |
Show
|
159 Texas A&M at Auburn The Tigers have permitted 21, 38 and 35 points to similar rated offenses as the Aggies. In turn Auburn has scored 45, 59, 45 and 42 points against similarly rated defenses. The Tigers have a huge edge along the offensive line here which should keep the markers moving. A&M QB Kyle Allen was highly recruited and laid a complete egg last week against UL Monroe. But we expect a much better offensive game from the Aggies here. Texas A&M is averaging 26 points per game against the best four defenses it faced, while Auburn has the best offense Texas A&M has played this year. Lot’s of scoring and neither coach is shy about running up a score. PLAY OVER
|
11-07-14 |
Memphis v. Temple UNDER 52.5 |
|
16-13 |
Win
|
100 |
50 h 11 m |
Show
|
114 Memphis at Temple This is one of the three weakest offenses the Tigers will have faced this season along with Middle Tennessee and SMU. Memphis held those two opponents to a combined 27 points. With Temple coming off its first win over a ranked foe in 16 years the Owls won’t be able to count on a +5 turnover advantage to get on the scoreboard. Temple does play solid defense and we expect the Owls to be stout this week against a Memphis squad who has feasted on the weak defenses of Middle Tennessee, Cincinnati, SMU and Tulsa this year. Both teams stop the run well and we believe this total is in part shaped by recent questionable results. PLAY UNDER
|
11-01-14 |
Oklahoma State v. Kansas State -11 |
Top |
14-48 |
Win
|
100 |
31 h 28 m |
Show
|
368 Oklahoma State at Kansas StateNow that the line has gone down a bit it’s time to jump in with one of our favorite money makers, Bill Snyder and the Kansas State Wildcats. K State is our long shot pick to make it into the Final Four as they currently sit at #9 at the moment. This is a team with a stout defense and an offense that’s dynamic but stays under the national radar. With the playoff structure in view it wouldn’t surprise us if any of the top 20 teams tack on an extra score to impress the pollsters.Oklahoma State is known as a high flying offensive squad but once the starting QB went down this team imploded. A major drop off at the quarterback position has made this team ordinary at best. The Cowboys have scored just one offensive touchdown in the last ten quarters and the going will be tough on Saturday against this stop unit. The number looks to be at least six points too low.PLAY KANSAS STATE
|
11-01-14 |
East Carolina -7 v. Temple |
Top |
10-20 |
Loss |
-116 |
66 h 29 m |
Show
|
315 East Carolina at Temple Nowhere to go but up in regards to this line movement. Pirates looked as though it went through the motions in front of a national audience on Thursday in a 31-21 victory over Connecticut. But that was a rare national stage for a bad UConn team and it left it all on the playing field. East Carolina on the other hand has higher expectations. After being criticized in the press for not distancing themselves we don’t expect East Carolina to take any prisoners here.Temple is a team fading fast and the betting public has been slow to react. The Owls were absolutely steamrolled last week against Central Florida and the first half stats were about as dominant as you will ever see for a 6 point favorite. Temple started the year fine but since that time has regressed. Early games against Vanderbilt, Navy, Connecticut and Tulsa don’t look nearly as strong now as all those teams have disappointed. PLAY EAST CAROLINA
|
10-31-14 |
Cincinnati -4 v. Tulane |
|
38-14 |
Win
|
100 |
33 h 51 m |
Show
|
309 Cincinnati at Tulane The line on this game has come up short in our opinion as QB Kiel was injured again last time out for the Bearcats. While he has been impressive in his first year here backup Munchie Leqaux has plenty of starting experience and he looks to be 100% healthy. The Bearcats are off SMU & USF the past two weeks so it hasn’t been worn down by the opposition, while the team has a bye on deck. The Green Wave is coming in off a bye, but after a strong 7-6 season a year ago this program looks to have regressed to it’s pre 2013 state of 2 to 4 wins per season. While the Mean Green rarely get the ESPN cameras, the low attendance here limits any type of home field advantage. We expected this line to be 7-8 points and because of the Cincinnati quarterback situation we are getting a nice bargain with the clearly better team. PLAY CINCINNATI
|
10-30-14 |
Troy +26 v. Georgia Southern |
|
10-42 |
Loss |
-108 |
9 h 31 m |
Show
|
303 Troy at Georgia Southern While it’s clear that the host should be able to run all day on the visitor, the opening line of 20 1/2 is closer to what the true number on this game should be. As we write this we are now seeing lines as high as 27 as the run happy host has taken all the early money. But while the Eagles have been big money makers for backers this year, this team is starting to be overpriced. Sports betting is not only betting teams but betting numbers, and this pendulum is about to swing the other way. Troy is down to the last four games under coach Larry Blakeney who has been in this program for 24 years. We firmly believe these kids will lay it all on the line for him the remainder of the season. While the Trojans don’t have the talent of the Eagles, the overinflated line keeps us easily in this contest. PLAY TROY
|
10-25-14 |
Ohio State v. Penn State +14 |
|
31-24 |
Win
|
100 |
56 h 30 m |
Show
|
196 Ohio State at Penn StatePenn State has had two byes in the past three weeks. That’s a huge advantage for a first year coach in the program in James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are allowing just 13 points per game at home. Holding their three opponents to 10, 17 and 4 points below their season scoring averages. Penn State allows just 61 rushing yards a game which is Ohio State’s strength. They have been on the road just once in the past six weeks. Ohio State hasn’t been tested since the Virginia Tech loss. Not a single team Ohio State has played is having a good year. Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent St, Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers have all underperformed. We really don’t know how good this Ohio State team is and it’s much better at home than on the road. PLAY PENN STATE
|
10-25-14 |
Ole Miss -3 v. LSU |
|
7-10 |
Loss |
-115 |
128 h 41 m |
Show
|
171 Mississippi at LSU Our stats say the Rebels are the best team in the country and this team has proven that letdowns aren't an obstacle. LSU had a great game against Kentucky but overall have been a disappointment. We fully expect the visitor to win this one by a touchdown. PLAY MISSISSIPPI
|
10-25-14 |
Temple v. Central Florida -7 |
|
14-34 |
Win
|
100 |
53 h 33 m |
Show
|
136 Temple at Central FloridaBoth teams stand at 4-2 on the season but the Knights have faced the much tougher schedule. In fact, Temple last faced one of the ten easiest schedules in the country. Only Houston has a real chance of gong bowling out of the six teams the Owls have played and the Cougars beat Temple 31-10 last week. Central Florida is very tough against the run which puts the onus on QB PJ Walker for the Owls who was just 27 for 60 the past two games. The Knights by the way beat Houston on the road 17-12. Cheap number for a team on the rise.PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA
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10-25-14 |
West Virginia +2.5 v. Oklahoma State |
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34-10 |
Win
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100 |
124 h 49 m |
Show
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191 West Virginia at Oklahoma StateNormally we would look to back a team off an embarrassing performance and fade a team off a big win. But when the clear better team is getting points we will buck traditional handicapping. The Mountaineers are legit and the Cowboys just aren’t up to previous editions. West Virginia has the better quickness as Oklahoma State has major problems on both sides of the ball.PLAY WEST VIRGINIA
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