This is a play on the KANSAS CITY ROYALS as part of our MLB Late Double Play Sweeper. Kansas City took the opener of this series last night behind a great effort from Seth Lugo and the Royals have now won five straight games and the confidence is coming back. The offense had been getting hot before scoring just two runs last night but they have gotten nearly back to .500 with the pitching that has been consistent all season with an ERA of 8 which is No. 6 in baseball. Michael Wacha has done nothing special this season but has not blown up as he has a 4.15 ERA and 1.31 WHIP through five starts while allowing three runs or less in four of those. He has given up only one home run on the season and that has been an asset as he allowed only 32 over the previous two seasons and that was over 300 combined innings. Houston was coming off a home sweep over Toronto as the pitching was dominant with only two runs allowed and while they allowed only two runs on Friday, the offense remains down. They are now 4-6 on the road compared to 9-6 at home. Framber Valdez is an elite starter and will continue to be priced that way but he has been rather inconsistent with a 4.50 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in his five starts and has been initiating above average contact. 10* (924) Kansas City Royals

This is a play on the ATLANTA BRAVES as part of our MLB Late Double Play Sweeper. After opening the season 0-7 and then not being able to put together any sort of run, the Braves have won six of their last seven games and we have to jump on board at the + price after being favored in their last games. The offense remains middle of the road overall but Atlanta has averaged 5.6 rpg over this seven-game stretch after scoring more than four runs only seven times in their first 18 games and they have a chance to keep the offense rolling. Now it will be up to Grant Holmes to keep them in games and he has done just that with a 2.08 ERA over his last three starts as he has escaped trouble with a poor walk rate. His .271 wOBA indicates this as it is based on quality and amount of contact and not outcomes. Arizona has lost three straight games and its pitching is creeping further down, now No. 24 in team ERA and are hoping Merrill Kelly can continue his recent success as well. He has a 2.04 ERA over his last three outings after getting shelled by the Yankees and he will be popular at this short price. Despite the recent stretch, his xERA of 5.19 is the concern as his lack of initiating contact will not last especially against an offense starting to find its groove. 10* (909) Atlanta Braves

This is a play on the LOS ANGELES ANGELS as part of our MLB Afternoon Triple Play Sweeper. The Twins broke out with 11 runs on Friday which is the first time they have scored more than eight runs so we are not faithful that this offense has found something to carry forward. Minnesota is now 10-16 behind an offense that is ranked No. 25 or worse in batting average, on base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS and it has been atrocious against left-handed pitching, sitting dead last in batting average and on base percentage while hitting only three home runs, tied for fourth fewest in the league. The pitching has tried to keep them above water but are just middle of the league in ERA and xFIP and Simeon Woods Richardson has not helped out. He was scratched last Saturday to become a bulk reliever and did not fare well again and while his 4.74 ERA is not the worst, his 6.80 xERA is the worst among pitchers facing at least 50 opposing plate appearances. The Angels are back under .500 by a game following the loss and it has not been a positive run over the last coupler weeks but this is the spot to back with Yusei Kikuchi on the hill. He did not have a great starts but has allowed one run over his last two starts to improve his ERA to 3.38 and his xERA to 3.68. 10* (917) Los Angeles Angels

This is a play on the TORONTO BLUE JAYS as part of our MLB Afternoon Triple Play Sweeper. Toronto was coming off a rest day on Thursday following getting swept in Houston as the offense managed only two runs over the three games and the Blue Jays were well on their way last night as they trailed the Yankees 2-1 going into the ninth inning but scored three runs to pull off the win and gain some much needed momentum. They held the potent Yankees offense to minimal production following the first scoreless start of the season for Jose Berrios and will be expecting the same from Kevin Gausman who is coming off his worst outing of the season after allowing three runs or less in his first four starts. While he has not been overwhelming, he has a 3.16 ERA and 0.86 WHIP through five starts while posting a 3.45 xERA and 3.86 xFIP so his expected results are appealing. New York has now lost three of four games after finally putting together a run of going 6-1 in its previous seven games but at four games over .500, it is a disappointing start. Max Fried has been the lone bright spot in the starting rotation with a 1.42 ERA and 1.01 WHIP through his 3.55 xERA and 3.57 xFIP are right in line with Gausman showing overvalue here. 10* (913) Toronto Blue Jays

This is a play on the MILWAUKEE BREWERS as part of our MLB Afternoon Triple Play Sweeper. The Cardinals had gone 7-15 over their last 22 games after opening the season with a three-game sweep over the Twins but after what we have seen from Minnesota, that sweep is looking less impressive. St. Louis was coming off a 1-6 roadtrip before a 3-2 win last night that approached disaster again after the Brewers loaded the bases in the seventh inning with no outs but were able to just get a lone run. The Cardinals got a quality start from Matthew Liberatore and will be looking for the same from Sonny Gray who has two this season and while he has allowed two runs or less in three of his five starts, those were against the Astros, Pirates and Twins which are all No. 23 or worse in both slugging percentage and OPS. Milwaukee lost three of four in San Francisco to open the week and has now fallen back under .500 with the loss last night. The Brewers have similar home and road splits as the Cardinals but we are catching value because of it and turn to Quinn Priester who has looked impressive through his first three starts with a 1.93 ERA while carrying a no-hitter into the sixth inning two starts back and is a much needed addition to the banged up rotation. 10* (901) Milwaukee Brewers

This is a play on the DENVER NUGGETS for our NBA Ultimate Underdog. Following a split in Denver, the Clippers took a 2-1 series lead with a 34-point win in Game Three as they blew it open thanks to a 23-2 run over the end of the first quarter and the start of the second quarter and then never looked back. These blowouts should not happen in the playoffs between two fairly equal teams separated by one game and coming off the first two games that were decided by five points combined. It was the offensive effort for Denver that was lackluster as it shot only 40 percent from the floor including 26 percent from long range while committing 16 turnovers. The Nuggets are catching a rare bigger number as they are 4-2 ATS on the road when getting six points or more, one of those losses coming way back in November and the other coming at Oklahoma City where they entered the fourth quarter down by three points before the Thunder pulled away. We saw this number go between 6 and 5.5 points after opening and then fell down to 4.5 points very early Friday morning and stayed for about four minutes and has been on the move back up since then. The public will be backing the Clippers based on their run of 20-4 over their last 24 games and we feel this is the contrarian spot. 10* (565) Denver Nuggets

This is a play on the MIAMI HEAT for our NBA Round 1 Game of the Year. Miami did its best to hang around in Game Two as it had to withstand 11 three-pointers from the Cavaliers in the second quarter, an NBA Playoff record, and Cleveland led by 19 points late in the third quarter yet the Heat rallied to take a two-point lead with 3:11 left but were outscored 18-7 the remainer of the game. Donovan Mitchell took over and now the Heat find themselves in a must win spot to keep the series alive in a very similar spot where we had Memphis in Game Three heading home down 2-0 and while it still lost, it was a wire-to-wire cover despite the Grizzlies losing Ja Morant for more than half of the game. Miami finally home after winning two Play-In Tournament road games prior to the two games in Cleveland. The Cavaliers coasted to the top seed in the Eastern Conference and they hit the road where they are 30-11 and are going to be the public team here laying single digits. While being one of the best covers teams in the league throughout the season, they are just 9-14 ATS since March 5th, 7-13 ATS as favorites. We are seeing a reverse line move, albeit slight, but this line opened at 6.5 and is down to 6 and even 5.5 despite 82 percent of the money on Cleveland as of Friday afternoon. 10* (562) Miami Heat