Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
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I went 67-39 (63 percent) in college football in 2022 as verified by Vegas Insider by combining many handicapping factors such as matchup analysis, statistics, history, weather and situational elements. Information is the key. I'm fortunate that I have many sources to rely on. Many stem from having been a sportswriter/sports editor for daily newspapers in the Midwest, South and West for more than 20 years and having been the sports gaming writer for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years while also having covered the UNLV football team as the team beat writer for several years. I have the knowledge, experience and resources necessary to win.
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Stephen Nover is one of the most respected NFL handicappers in North American with the record to back it up: 26 of 30 winning NFL seasons! All of Stephen's plays come with his trademark deep dive analysis. Stephen is a multiple Rotisserie league football champion and was an award-winning sportswriter for the Las Vegas Review-Journal for 13 years. He also worked for the legendary linesmaker Roxy Roxbury, who was the top oddsmaker in North America before retiring. Don't miss out. Lock in now and get all of Stephen's plays at a top value season price.
YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
PICKS IN PROGRESS
The Chiefs had trouble covering point spreads when they were good. Now they are an untrustworthy 6-6 with half of those victories occurring against the Giants, Raiders and Commanders.
Houston is peaking with four straight victories. Three of those wins were against the Colts on the road, Bills and Jaguars. C.J. Stroud has knocked the rust off and is fortified with the deepest set of wide receivers he's had.
Just because the Chiefs need to win this game doesn't mean they will. Even if they do, it's asking a lot for them to cover more than a field goal given their offensive line injuries and going against Houston's top-ranked defense. The Texans are first in fewest points allowed, fewest yards and are tied for seventh in most sacks.
Patrick Mahomes is capable of pulling off magic. He has a lot working against him, though, besides Houston's elite defense. The Chiefs have a ground attack that scares no one and three starting offensive linemen are out.
Slowly but surely the Buccaneers are getting back to full strength on offense. Mike Evans won't be ready this week, but Tampa Bay's top running back Bucky Irving returned last week and looked good. Chris Godwin is getting closer to being his reliable self having returned several weeks ago.
All of this is added firepower for Baker Mayfield, who entered this week tied for seventh in touchdown passes with 19 and ranked 11th in passer ratings.
This is the lowest total on a Tampa Bay game this season. It is set too low because the Saints should be able to contribute their share of the scoring.
Rookie Tyler Shough is averaging 45 passes in the last two games. This will be his fifth NFL start. He has shown improvement. Tampa Bay gives up the sixth-most receptions and eighth-most receiving yards.
Devaughn Vele had a breakout game against the Dolphins last week catching eight passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. Shough also has reliable targets in Chris Olave and underrated tight end Juwan Johnson.
The bar is set low with this total.
Before crowning the Seahawks Super Bowl champions after a shutout of a Max Brosmer-led Minnesota team last week, consider this about Atlanta.
The Falcons are an unlucky 4-8. They have lost by an average of 3.2 points in five of their defeats. Two of their losses - to the Panthers and Colts - came in overtime. Atlanta's latest defeat was last Sunday on the road by three points when the Jets' Nick Folk made a 56-yard field goal as time expired.
If even two of those five defeats were turned around, the Falcons would be a far more respectable 6-6.
Seattle enters this match-up fat and happy and perhaps overconfident. It is not an ideal spot for Seattle. The Seahawks are making the long journey across three time zones and this is an early start. They also are not a dome team.
The Falcons can afford to play loose now. All the pressure is on the Seahawks.
Kirk Cousins is well past his prime. But he still is one of the better backup quarterbacks in the league and has the luxury of having superstar Bijan Robinson to do the heavy lifting.
A December game in Green Bay always means a first look at the weather. It is going to be cold, but sunny. So no problems there.
The good news for the Packers is Jayden Reed is set to play for the first time since Week 2. This gives Jordan Love a rich assortment of wide receivers with Reed, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks and potentially Matthew Golden.
Chicago's secondary has gotten healthy. However, the Bears are still not at full strength at linebacker.
The bad news for Green Bay is that stud defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt is out for the season after suffering a broken ankle on Thanksgiving. Next to Micah Parsons, Wyatt was the most valuable player on the Packers defense because of his run-stuffing ability.
Ben Johnson has done a masterful job turning the Bears' offense into a power attack. Chicago's offensive linemen are better run blockers than pass blockers and D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai are an effective outside/inside running back combo. They can put the Bears in favorable second and third down situations making things easier for Caleb Williams to pick his spots.
SERVICE BIO
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.