Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-21 | Purdue +7 v. Notre Dame | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 92 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take Purdue Boilermakers over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (2:30p.m., Saturday, September 18 NBC) The Irish got a scare last week from Toledo and now will face the most talented team they have seen in 2021 through 3 games. Notre Dame has a quarterback controversy and a defense that has not been stopping teams whatsoever. The Irish have been giving up a ton of sacks as well. The underdog is 13-2 ATS in the last 15 games Purdue has played in. The road team is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two in-state teams. Notre Dame is 2-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games against Big 10 teams. |
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09-18-21 | Nevada -1.5 v. Kansas State | 17-38 | Loss | -115 | 91 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #135 Nevada Wolf Pack over Kansas State Wildcats (2p.m., Saturday, September 18 ESPN+) Nevada is for real and they are catching the Wildcats at the right time, with their starting Quarterback Skylar Thompson out with a knee injury. The Pack were able to cruise last week against an FCS opponent and we see know that their victory in week 1 against Cal was a decent win. K-State struggled last week against Southern Illinois, and I do not see them being able to keep pace with Nevada unless turnovers play a role in this game. Nevada has covered the spread in 5 straight non-conference games. K-State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. |
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09-18-21 | Coastal Carolina -13.5 v. Buffalo | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 7 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #121 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers over Buffalo Bulls (12p.m., Saturday, September 18 ESPN2) This would have been a great game last year but Buffalo lost their coach and has fallen off in 2021. They got destroyed last week at Nebraska and they will have trouble if the Chanticleers can stop the run. Buffalo lost their top receiver and top running backs from 2020. Coastal Carolina is 9-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 games overall. Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of December. |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -4.5 v. Raiders | 27-33 | Loss | -100 | 126 h 5 m | Show | |
10 Unit Play. Take #481 Baltimore Ravens over Las Vegas Raiders (8:15p.m., Monday, September 13 ESPN) The Ravens dominated the preseason for five straight years, and we expect them to get off to a good start in the 2021 regular season. Baltimore returns most of their 2020 team and the Raiders defense has ranked in the bottom four each of the last four seasons. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 opening week games. The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Just do not trust the coach and gm with the Raiders and feel this may be the end of the line for Jon Gruden in Las Vegas. Lay the points and take the better all-around team in Baltimore. |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots -2.5 | 17-16 | Loss | -125 | 98 h 16 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #474 New England Patriots over Miami Dolphins (4:25p.m., Sunday, September 12 CBS) Just feel that the Patriots are better in the trenches in this game and that will allow QB Mac Jones to make some plays in the passing game. Will Fuller is suspended for this game, and I just do not have a lot of faith in QB Tagovailoa making enough plays to win this road game. Miami is 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games on field turf. Miami is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games @ Foxboro. The Patriots have covered 4 of their last 5 opening week games. |
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09-12-21 | Steelers v. Bills -6.5 | 23-16 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #454 Buffalo Bills over Pittsburgh Steelers (1p.m., Sunday, September 12 CBS) The Steelers feel apart at the end of 2020 including a defeat at Buffalo and we see this game being a double-digit game as well. Pittsburgh will have to be able to throw the football down field to win games in 2021, as defenses will stack the line of scrimmage. The Steelers are 2-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 season openers the last decade. Buffalo is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. QB Allen made great strides last year and look for that to continue in 2021, especially early in the season. |
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09-12-21 | Seahawks -2 v. Colts | 28-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #465 Seattle Seahawks over Indianapolis Colts (1p.m., Sunday, September 12 FOX) Seattle will travel east but I just feel they are in a better situation for Week 1. QB Wentz was injured during camp and then got covid last week. Wentz was 0-5 straight up against Seattle with the Eagles. Indianapolis also has offensive line issues and I see Seattle winning this game by double-digits. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between Seattle and Indianapolis. The Colts are 1-11 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 season opening games. |
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09-11-21 | Missouri v. Kentucky -5 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 77 h 23 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #374 Kentucky Wildcats over Missouri Tigers (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 11 SECN) Just feel Kentucky is farther along with Mark Stoops ninth year compared to Eliah Drinkwitz in his second season. Missouri struggled last week against Central Michigan and Kentucky should signs that then can pass the football with a new offensive coordinator in Lexington this season. Missouri struggled to stop Central Michigan giving us a bunch of passing yards. Despite losing by 10 points last year, Kentucky has still won 5 of 6 against Missouri. The Tigers are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games. Kentucky is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games. |
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09-11-21 | NC State -2.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #361 NC State Wolfpack over Mississippi State Bulldogs (7p.m., Saturday, September 11 ESPN2) This is a classic case of an SEC team playing an ACC team at home and thus the number does not fully reflect the talent disparity between the two teams. Mike Leach is not Lane Kiffin when it comes to offenses in the SEC, the Bulldogs were not able to run the ball at all against Louisiana Tech last week. The La Tech Bulldogs blew that game last week being outscored 21-3 in the fourth quarter and missing a field goal at the buzzer to lose by 1 point. NC State has two strong running backs, and they return their entire secondary. This will not shutdown the Bulldogs passing attack but I expect them to be able to hold their own. NC State is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games. Mississippi State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against ACC teams. |
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09-11-21 | California v. TCU -11 | 32-34 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #346 TCU Horned Frogs over Cal Golden Bears (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 11 ESPNU) We went against Cal last week as our top play and will do so again this week. They are a lifeless team and only scored 3 points in the last 3 quarters against Nevada. Now they must face another veteran team with a proven head coach in Gary Patterson. They finished strong in 2020 and will enter this game having won 4 straight. Nevada torn them apart last week and expect Max Duggan to pick them apart as well. The Golden Bears are 1-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games. The Horned Frogs are 4-0 ATS (1 push) in their last 5 games as a favorite. |
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09-11-21 | Pittsburgh -3 v. Tennessee | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 56 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #315 Pittsburgh Panthers over Tennessee Volunteers (12p.m., Saturday, September 11 ESPN) Tennessee struggled on offense against a terrible mid-major last Thursday and now must face a real team with a defensive minded coach. The Panthers return most of their skill players on offense including Kenny Pickett. Tennessee had yet another coaching change and now must learn a new system under Josh Heupel. QB Joe Milton was terrible last week going 11 for 23 and just 140 yards. Pittsburgh is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 nonconference games. Tennessee has a ton of trends to fade them including going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games. |
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09-04-21 | Nevada +3.5 v. California | Top | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #217 Nevada Wolf Pack over California Golden Bears (10:30p.m., Saturday, September 4 FS1) Just believe Nevada is better on both sides of the football, especially on offense. The Wolf Pack have an NFL prospect in Carson Strong and will have a bunch of fans at this game trying to get away from the smokey conditions in Reno. Cal is just 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games as a home favorite and this line has the wrong team favored. The Bears went just 1-3 last season and all 3 of those losses were against bad teams. This is the year Nevada is expected to make a run for the MWC Championship and it will start on Saturday. This line is just a Power 5 team playing at home so the public will jump on that number. In reality Nevada has better talent, and they will win this game straight-up. |
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09-04-21 | UL-Lafayette v. Texas OVER 58 | 18-38 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 57 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #188 Over in Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Texas Longhorns (4:30p.m., Saturday, September 4 FOX) The Steve Sarkisian era gets underway Saturday afternoon in Austin against one of the better mid-major programs in the country. The spread looks inviting, but we will instead not bite on that and focus on the over. Texas has averaged 56 points against Louisiana in their last two meetings. Texas averaged 42 points last season and if they hit that mark on Saturday, we should easily hit the over. Louisiana has gone over the posted total in 10 of their last 12 games against Big 12 teams. Texas has gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 10 games. |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy +2.5 | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 58 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #178 Navy Midshipmen over Marshall Thundering Herd (3:30p.m., Saturday, September 4 CBSSN) We all remember Navy looking helpless last year against BYU in the opening game on Labor Day. But that has a rare situation for Coach Niumatalolo, as his 2020 team did not have time in practice to work on any fundamentals. They also faced the No. 2 pick in the draft and now they get to face a team in Marshall with a first-year head coach. The Thundering Herd never seem to be satisfied with their coach despite having a great tradition and winning records. That will catch up to them in this game, as Navy will pull the upset. Marshall is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Navy is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. |
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09-04-21 | Penn State v. Wisconsin -5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 29 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #166 Wisconsin Badgers over Penn State Nittany Lions (12p.m., Saturday, September 4 FOX) This is one of the best Big 10 opening games in recent memory. We will follow the line movement that keeps going higher, as Wisconsin will be pumped up for a full stadium of fans. Wisconsin has revenge on their minds having lost 4 straight games to Penn State. The Lions are just 3-6 in their last 9 games as a road underdog and have only covered the spread 1 time in their opening game over the last 4 years. The home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings between Penn State and Wisconsin. |
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09-02-21 | Bowling Green v. Tennessee -35 | 6-38 | Loss | -108 | 50 h 30 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #144 Tennessee Volunteers over Bowling Green Falcons (8p.m., Thursday, September 2 SECN) Bowling Green is terrible and they were not competitive in any of their 5 games last season (went 0-5 straight-up and 1-4 ATS). Tennessee has a new coach in Josh Heupel and he will bring an up-tempo offense that can score points in a hurry. Tennessee needs to get their fans behind this program and with a brutal schedule ahead this is a game they need to dominate and win by close to 50 points. Bowling Green is 0-9 ATS in their last 9 road games. |
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08-28-21 | Connecticut v. Fresno State UNDER 63 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 66 h 18 m | Show | |
2 Unit Play. Take #305 Under in Connecticut Huskies @ Fresno State Bulldogs (2p.m., Saturday, August 28 CBSSN) Yeah, UCONN decided to play football this year! Not playing last year gave Coach Randy Edsall another year that he does not serves as head coach of this team. For the Huskies to have any chance in this game they will need to control the ball on offense and run some clock on each possession. Fresno State is not an offensive juggernaut going 3-3 last year and only scored 40 points in 1 of their 6 games played. Expect a score in the mid-50s and we will look to collect with the under in this affair. |
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05-16-21 | Sam Houston State +5.5 v. South Dakota State | Top | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take 308903 Sam Houston State Bearkats over South Dakota State Jackrabbits (2p.m., Sunday, May 16 ABC) The line is going up and I feel that the Bearkats have what it takes to take this game down to the wire. The Missouri Valley Conference was not as strong this season, but still got credit based on the strength of NDSU this decade. The Jackrabbits are the best team in the league, but this will be far and away the most explosive team they have seen in 2021. San Houston State had no business winning last week against James Madison, but they scored 28 points in under 3 minutes and held on against James Madison last week. They have a huge edge in this game since it is being played in Texas and they can bus to the game (about a 3-hour trip). This game will go down to the wire and we will come out on top with whoever pulls it out by a field goal. |
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05-08-21 | James Madison +1 v. Sam Houston State | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308973 James Madison Dukes over Sam Houston State Bearkats (2:30p.m., Saturday, May 8 ABC) A battle of unbeatens is set to do battle at Bowers Stadium in Huntsville, TX on Saturday with a television broadcast on ABC. The Dukes are outstanding at ball control and I feel they have the better defense in this game. James Madison honestly believes they should be hosting this game and expect them to make a statement in this game as they advance onto the championship game (also being played in Texas). SHS is coming off a big win last week against North Dakota State, the dominate team over the last decade in FCS and I just do not know how much left they will have for this game. NDSU was nowhere near as strong this season and SHS still had to hold onto dear life to beat them. JMU has a much better quarterback than what NDSU showed last week and that will be the different today. |
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05-02-21 | North Dakota v. James Madison -2.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 52 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308958 James Madison Dukes over North Dakota Fighting Hawks (6p.m., Sunday, May 2 ESPN2) Just feel the Hawks are getting to much publicity in this game due to the conference that they played in. North Dakota State destroyed them on March 20, and they have not been able to play many games since then. James Madison is not flashy at the quarterback position and they are rock solid on defense and I just do not see them losing this game at home. The Dukes were upset when they were given a No. 3 seed in the FCS Playoffs and expect them to march onto the final four with a victory on Sunday at home. We will lay the small points and expect close to a double-digit win. |
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04-24-21 | Southern Illinois +4.5 v. Weber State | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308919 Southern Illinois Salukis over Weber State Wildcats (4p.m., Saturday, April 24 ESPNU) The Wildcats were a top 5 team going into the spring season, went undefeated and yet are only around a 4-point favorite against a 5-3 team. How is that possible? That is because they have not looked that impressive against fledging team that did not make the playoffs. Their last 4 wins have come by a combined 18 points and Southern Illinois is the strongest team that they will have faced in the spring season. Southern Illinois has wins over Northern Iowa and North Dakota State this season and played in the highly competitive Missouri Valley Conference. Weber State is just playing with fire each and every week and that will bite them on Saturday. Southern Illinois wins this game straight-up and getting points is just icing on the cake. |
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04-17-21 | Richmond +12 v. James Madison | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308995 Richmond Spiders over James Madison Dukes (2p.m., Saturday, April 17 Flo Football) The two best teams in the CAA are finally set to do battle Saturday in Harrisonburg, VA. Both teams have had the last two weeks off and both teams are undefeated in 2021. I just do not see a blowout in this game since it means more to Richmond with regards to making the FCS Playoffs. Both teams are strong on offense scoring over 30 points per game and I just do not believe the Dukes will be able to completely shutdown Joe Mancuso and company. This is the toughest opponent James Madison will have played in 2021 and while I see them winning, I expect a battle for 60 minutes. Grab the points in this battle of unbeaten teams. |
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03-27-21 | Elon v. Richmond -11 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #308958 Richmond Spiders -11 over Elon Phoenix (4p.m., Saturday, March 27 NBC Sports Washington/FLO SPORTS) FCS GAME OF THE YEAR We have faded the Phoenix the last two weeks and easily won both games and now we look to complete the trifecta on Saturday. These two teams met two weeks ago in Elon and Richmond won that game 38-14. The selection just comes down to the fact the Phoenix are using their third or fourth string quarterback. Neither one is any good and expect the Spiders to stock the box and force them to beat them through the air, something they have not been capable of doing in 2021. Elon is getting beat up and they are 1-4 on the season with 3 of those losses coming by at least 21 points. Richmond will dominate this game for 60 minutes and win by 20+ points. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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03-06-21 | UC Davis v. Idaho -3.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
7 Unit Play. Take #308938 Idaho Vandals over UC Davis Aggies (3p.m., Saturday, March 6 Pluto TV) Idaho had one of the most impressive upsets of the year beating Eastern Washington last week by 7 points. Now they face a lesser team in UC Davis and also get to face them raw, as the Aggies have yet to play a game in 2021. Idaho likes to throw the football and should find little resistance from UC Davis in this game. Throw in the fact that UC Davis is coached by noted loser Dan Hawkins and I see this being a double-digit victory for the home team. The Vandals will shutdown the run for a second straight week and make UC Davis one-dimensional. |
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03-04-21 | South Dakota v. North Dakota OVER 47 | 10-21 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take #308902 Over in South Dakota @ North Dakota (6p.m., Thursday, March 4 ESPN+) Just believe both offensives are strong enough to score in the twenties and that should set up a win with the over in this game. This total appears to be over adjusted from most games going under the posted total in the first two weeks of action. South Dakota has created 8 turnovers in two games and I just do not see that happening against this strong team in North Dakota. The Fighting Hawks have the two best wins of any FCS team thus far in 2021 and expect them to light-up the scoreboard on Thursday. |
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02-28-21 | Tennessee State v. Austin Peay State UNDER 56 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #308989 Under in Tennessee State @ Austin Peay (3p.m., Sunday, February 28 ESPN+) Until the evening games, we have seen a lot of this FCS games stay under the posted total and today should be no different in this game. Austin Peavy dominated Tennessee Tech to just 156 yards and I expect another strong performance in this game. |
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02-26-21 | Southern v. Alabama State +7.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
6 Unit Play. Take 208942 Alabama State Hornets over Southern University Jaguars (7p.m., Friday, February 26 ESPN3) We will follow the line movement in this game, as both teams are opening up their spring season. Southern finished 6-1 on conference play in 2019, but they did not have a ton of blowouts except when having inferior smaller level teams. They opened 2019 at 1-3 and I do not see them blowing out Alabama State tonight in a true road game. The Jaguars win by defense and running the football and thus it is hard to cover this type of number unless they get turnovers. Alabama State has a strong offense led by Michael Jefferson and with Southern having some injuries on defense this game should go down to the wire. |
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02-21-21 | Tarleton State v. New Mexico State UNDER 57.5 | 43-17 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 23 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take Under 57 in Tarleton State @ New Mexico State (2p.m., Sunday, February 21) The Texans have an advantage of already playing a game this season, but they really ran out of gas down the stretch. They blew a 14 point lead late and could not even get a first down in two drives in overtime. The line has swung towards New Mexico State, but we will focus on the under. Most of the game thus far in FCS hit gone under the posted total and today should be no different. |
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02-13-21 | McNeese State v. Tarleton State +1 | 40-37 | Loss | -116 | 8 h 31 m | Show | |
2 Unit Play. Take #308902 Tarleton State (pk) over McNeese State (7p.m., Saturday, February 13 FSSW) We will follow the line movement in this selection, as McNeese State opened just under a field goal favorite but now this game is a pick’em. Both teams have a ton of talent at the running back position with the Texans returning two of their top three running backs from last year. Tarleton State is moving up from division 2 and this will be there first game ever as an FCS team. I think they want to show they belong and will win this game straight-up. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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02-07-21 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3 | Top | 9-31 | Win | 102 | 126 h 40 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #102 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Kansas City Chiefs (6:30p.m., Sunday, February 7 CBS) SUPER BOWL 55. Just feel Tampa Bay is the better all-around team and Tom Brady seems to be the destined winner of this game. Tampa Bay has won three straight road games to get to this point or being the first team ever to host the Super Bowl in their own stadium. Kansas City is loaded on offense, but they have offensive line injuries, and the Buccaneers have a pass rush capable of putting pressure on QB Mahomes for the entire 60-minute game. Kansas City has been winning games of late, but they have not been covering the spread and I just do not see them being able to move the football at will against this Tampa Bay defense. These two teams met earlier this season and Kansas City jumped out big before Tampa Bay rallied, and had they gotten a stop might have been able to win that game. Tampa Bay has gotten revenge on two teams in the playoffs and I expect them to get revenge on Kansas City as well. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between Tampa Bay and Kansas City. The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games. The Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Tampa wins this game straight-up and gives Brady his 7th Super Bowl. |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | 24-38 | Win | 106 | 123 h 33 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #314 Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills (6:40p.m., Sunday, January 24 CBS) The Chiefs have struggled to cover spreads of late despite winning games and I just feel Any Reid will get his team back to the Super Bowl for the second consecutive year. Sooner or later the Chiefs will cover a spread and I do not see them losing this game straight-up and thus expect to win and cover the spread. Kansas City has gone 6-0 straight-up against teams with a winning record. Buffalo has been playing great of late, but they are a young team and I just do not believe QB Allen is ready to lead this team to a Super Bowl at the age of 24. Kanas City is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Buffalo. |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers -3 | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -118 | 119 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #312 Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3:05p.m., Sunday, January 24 FOX) This line has been creeping down since it opened Sunday night and I now like the Packers even more. QB Brady has played in cold weather for most of his career but he just is not playing at the same level as QB Rodgers is now. Tampa Bay benefited greatly from 4 New Orleans turnovers last week and I just do not believe Green Bay will do the same thing. The Packers have not only been winning games of late, they also have been covering the spread in those games as well. Now we get them at home (with fans) and a low number. Green Bay is 8-1 straight-up at home this year (6-3 ATS) and I see them jumping out early and winning this game by double-digits. Tampa Bay is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of January. Green Bay is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played during January. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 matchups between the Buccaneers and Packers. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | 30-20 | Win | 103 | 124 h 13 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #307 Tampa Bay Buccaneers over New Orleans Saints (6:40p.m., Sunday, January 17 FOX) Round 3 of Tom Brady vs. Drew Brees takes place Sunday night at the Superdome in New Orleans, LA. Just feel it is impossible to beat Tom Brady 3 times in 1 season and thus we expect Tampa Bay to not only cover the spread but win this game straight-up. The Saints did not look that impressive last week and if the Bears had a functional offense, they would have taken that game down to the wire. QB Brees still has trouble moving in the pocket and throwing the deep ball and the Buccaneers have the defense to put pressure on him for 60 minutes. New Orleans is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | 3-17 | Loss | -106 | 102 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #303 Baltimore Ravens over Buffalo Bills (8:15p.m., Saturday, January 16 NBC) Both teams are playing well down the stretch and you could make a case for Buffalo, but the experience of the Ravens will prevail in this game. Buffalo looked shaky last week against Indianapolis at home and both times they appeared to have control of that game; they gave up a touchdown in a matter of one minute. QB Jackson got his first playoff win last week at Tennessee and I just feel the Ravens defense is playing better now. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road playoff games. Buffalo is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played during the month of January. |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers -6.5 | Top | 18-32 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #302 Green Bay Packers over Los Angeles Rams (4:35p.m., Saturday, January 16 FOX) NFL PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR We used the 49ers has our top play last year right out of the gate in the Divisional Round and will follow that formula again in 2021. The Rams are banged up and the game time temperature for this game should be around 30 degrees. The Packers are rested and QB Rodgers knows the importance of having the No. 1 seed in the NFC (only had it 1 other time in his career). Green Bay is 13-1 in their last 14 home games. QB Rodgers has a 23-2 touchdown to interception ratio at home this year. Green Bay led the league in points this year and I just do not believe Los Angeles will be able to match them score for score in this game. The Rams are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the Packers. The favorite is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings as well. Green Bay is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Alabama | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 11 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #499 Ohio State Buckeyes over Alabama Crimson Tide (8:05p.m., Monday, January 11 ESPN) Would not surprise me if Alabama jumped out to an early lead in this game, but I believe Ohio State will be able to take this game down to the wire. Alabama has not faced a complete team like this all year and I just do not believe they will be able to run the Buckeyes off the field. The Crimson Tide defense has trouble when teams can spread you out and this will be a high scoring game that will remain in single digits. Ohio State played their best game of the season last time out and it would not surprise me if they follow that up with another strong performance this Monday. Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 bowl games. Ohio State is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog. |
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01-10-21 | Bears v. Saints -10 | Top | 9-21 | Win | 100 | 101 h 36 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #150 New Orleans Saints over Chicago Bears (4:40p.m., Sunday, January 10 CBS) The Bears backed into the playoffs this season with a soft schedule down the stretch before getting pounded at home last week against the Packers. The Saints are simply better on both sides of the football and they will win this game by double-digits. New Orleans lost last year in the wildcard round and thus they will not take this game lightly. QB Trubisky has played better of late, but neither the coaching staff or fans have much confidence that he will perform well in this game. He is not the quarterback of the future and this may be the end of the road for him in Chicago as the starter. New Orleans is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in the last 7 games against Chicago. The Saints are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens -3 v. Titans | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 97 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #147 Baltimore Ravens over New Orleans Saints (1:05p.m., Sunday, January 10 ABC) The Ravens are everyone’s sleeper picks, and it would not surprise me in they make some noise in the 2021 playoffs this season. QB Jackson has yet to win a playoff game in his career and I expect him to finally get that monkey off his back on Sunday. Tennessee does not have a strong defense and they just are not particularly good in any layer on defense. The road team is 3-0 ATS (1 push) in the last 4 matchups between Baltimore and Tennessee. The Titans are 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 home playoff games. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +8.5 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 80 h 12 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #146 Washington Football Team over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:15p.m., Saturday, January 9 NBC) Nobody is giving Washington much of a chance in this game, but teams that host playoff games with a record of .500 or less have been well in this spot. Alex Smith is a capable NFL quarterback and expect him to bounce back in a big way on Saturday night. The strength of the football team is their defense and expect them to contain QB Brady and company for much of this game. These teams have met twice before in the playoffs and both of those games have been decided under tonight’s posted number. The underdog is 5-0 ATS (1 push) in the last 6 games between Tampa Bay and Washington. The Buccaneers are 1-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games played on Saturday. |
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01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills -6 | 24-27 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 3 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #142 Buffalo Bills over Indianapolis Colts (1:05p.m., Saturday, January 9 CBS) Just do not feel that Phillip Rivers will be able to keep up with the high scoring Bills offense in this game. Buffalo finished the season on fire, winning 6 straight games and all of them came over today’s posted number. Buffalo went 5-2 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. Indianapolis is 2-4 ATS this season against teams with a winning record. The Colts are 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 4 games as an underdog. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between the Colts and Bills. Finally, the home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 games in this series. |
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01-03-21 | Jaguars v. Colts -14 | 14-28 | Push | 0 | 119 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #104 Indianapolis Colts over Jacksonville Jaguars (4:25p.m., Sunday, January 3 CBS) The Colts need to win and also need help or they will be on the outside looking in when it comes to the AFC playoffs. Jacksonville is terrible and has already thrown in the towel on their 2020 season getting the No. 1 draft pick. This will be a 20+ point victory for the Colts and we will not hesitate to lay the points in this game. |
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01-03-21 | Packers -5 v. Bears | Top | 35-16 | Win | 100 | 119 h 7 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #105 Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears (4:25p.m., Sunday, January 3 FOX) The Packers will need to win this game to clinch the No. 1 seed and earn the only bye in the NFC. Green Bay has won 8 of the last 9 games against Chicago and crushed them in the first meeting in November at Lambeau Field. The favorite is 14-6 ATS in the last 20 meetings between Green Bay and Chicago. The Bears are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with a winning record. QB Rodgers cements his legacy as the 2020 MVP with another outstanding performance and a double-digit Packers victory. |
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01-03-21 | Steelers v. Browns -7.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -100 | 116 h 41 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #110 Cleveland Browns over Pittsburgh Steelers (1p.m., Sunday, January 3 CBS) The Browns got a gift with Pittsburgh winning last week and now the Steelers can rest up for the playoffs and not try and win this game. The line has skyrocketed but it will not matter with Cleveland winning this game by double-digits. Pittsburgh has dominated this series, but this is not the same Cleveland doormat that they have been for the last two decades. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Steelers will show some fight early but in the end Cleveland will pull away and make the playoffs with a dominating win. |
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01-03-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Bills | 26-56 | Loss | -106 | 116 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #123 Miami Dolphins over Buffalo Bills (1p.m., Sunday, January 3 CBS) The Dolphins have a lot more to play for in this game, as Buffalo will likely be the No. 2 seed with Pittsburgh not playing to win on Sunday. It would be a remarkable accomplishment for this Miami team to make the playoffs and they will do that with a win. Miami is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC teams. Buffalo is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games played during the month of January. |
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01-02-21 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Texas A&M | 27-41 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #497 North Carolina Tar Heels over Texas A&M Aggies (8p.m., Saturday, January 2 ESPN) Orange Bowl Everyone expects a letdown in this game for Texas A&M since they did not get into the College Football Playoff, and now they must face a high scoring offense in North Carolina. We will grab the points with the Tar Heels, as Mack Brown is familiar with the Aggies have played them numerous times in the Big 12 while he was the head coach at Texas. North Carolina underachieved this season, but I believe they will play a complete game tonight and take this one down to the wire. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State v. Clemson -7 | Top | 49-28 | Loss | -115 | 75 h 3 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #334 Clemson Tigers over Ohio State Buckeyes (8p.m., Friday, January 1 ESPN) Sugar Bowl This is a rematch of the semi-final game last year in which questionable officiating allowed Clemson to emerge victorious. But in 2020 I just do not see the same Ohio State team that have been so explosive in year’s past. Clemson had a 541-263 yardage edge against Notre Dame and that game was never in doubt after the first quarter. Everyone thinks Ohio State will be motivated for revenge and the diss that Dabo Sweeny gave them by ranking them No. 11 in the coaches poll, but in the end talent wins out. |
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01-01-21 | Notre Dame +20 v. Alabama | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 71 h 43 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #331 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Alabama Crimson Tide (4p.m., Friday, January 1 ESPN) Rose Bowl Nobody is giving Notre Dame a chance in this game, but I believe they will be able to score some points against this Alabama defense. The Tide have been lit up on defense a couple of times this season and Notre Dame has an offense capable of scoring 30 points against them. The Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Alabama is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played during the month of January. The Tide might be up big at some point in this game, I just believe Notre Dame will keep it in the teens once 60 minutes are completed. |
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12-31-20 | Ball State v. San Jose State -7.5 | 34-13 | Loss | -114 | 215 h 8 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #322 San Jose State Spartans over Ball State Cardinals (2p.m., Thursday, December 31 CBS) Arizona Bowl Ball State is coming off their Super Bowl two weeks ago winning the MAC Championship in surprising fashion over Buffalo. Not sure how much left in the tank they will have for this game. The Spartans are explosive on offense led by QB Nick Starkel, who has 16 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions in 7 games played this season. Ball State is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. San Jose State is 12-3 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 17 games. |
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12-30-20 | Wisconsin v. Wake Forest +6.5 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -108 | 189 h 10 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #312 Wake Forest Demon Deacons over Wisconsin Badgers (12p.m., Wednesday, December 30 ESPN) Duke Mayo Bowl We have faded Wisconsin in their last two games and easily covered both games. Wisconsin has quarterback issues, banged up wide receivers, and running backs that are not explosive. They have a solid defense, but they have yet to face an offense as up-tempo and explosive like Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons are coming off a bad performance against the Cardinals, but that final score is a little misleading (Louisville scored 17 points in the last 17 minutes of that game). Wake Forest is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Wisconsin is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. If Wake Forest can take care of the football, they should be able to take this game down to the wire and win it straight-up. |
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12-29-20 | Oklahoma State v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -109 | 171 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #296 Miami Hurricanes over Oklahoma State Cowboys (5:30p.m., Tuesday, December 29 ESPN) Cheez-it Bowl The Hurricanes have lost 3 straight bowl games and I feel it is important for Many Diaz to right the ship in this game. Miami has the advantage of playing in-state for this game and there will be fans in attendance. I am a big fan of D’Eriq King and expect him to bounce back in a big way tonight after a bad performance against UNC last time out. Oklahoma State beat Iowa State but that was their only quality win on the season and I just think Miami has a big edge at the quarterback position. The Pokes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. |
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12-27-20 | Titans v. Packers -3 | Top | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 125 h 24 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #480 Green Bay Packers over Tennessee Titans (8:20p.m., Sunday, December 27 NBC) Green Bay has the No. 1 seed in sight if they win this game tonight and I see no reason not to lay this small number with the best team in the NFC. QB Tannehill has played outstanding this season but he is not in the same league as Aaron Rogers, the likely MVP of the league. Green Bay has been jumping out early on teams of late and I see them doing the same as well in this game. They will need to stop the run-on defense, but their defense last been playing better of late as well. The Titans are 3-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 games played during Week 16 of the regular season. Green Bay is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. The Packers win this game by 7-10 points and lay claim to the No. 1 seed in the NFC. |
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12-27-20 | Rams v. Seahawks | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 26 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #476 Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Rams (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 27 FOX) This is an important game in the NFC West with the winner likely winning the NFC East and hosting a playoff game. Everyone expects to the Rams to bounce back after an embarrassing loss to the Jets last Sunday, but I just do not see them going into Seattle and winning this game. The Hawks have covered the spread in 5 of their last 7 home games. Seattle is also 9-4 ATS against Los Angeles in the last 13 games against them in Seattle. |
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12-27-20 | Panthers v. Washington Football Team -2.5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 11 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #470 Washington Football Team over Carolina Panthers (4:05p.m., Sunday, December 27 CBS) Carolina is just playing out the season and will enter this game having lost 3 straight games and 8 of their last 9 games. They are competitive in some of those losses, but they are still losses and that eventually takes its toll on a team. Washington has so much on the line in this game and with Alex Smith expected to be back I think they have enough to win it. Washington has beaten Carolina each of the last two seasons. The Football Team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games. The Panthers are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games against teams with a losing record. Finally, Coach Ron Rivera wants to win this game in a big way since he was fired by the Panthers last year. |
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12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers | 24-28 | Loss | -125 | 118 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #465 Indianapolis Colts over Pittsburgh Steelers (1p.m., Sunday, December 27 CBS) Pittsburgh is in freefall now and not much analysis is needed to describe why we are picking against them. They have lost 3 straight games including 2 against inferior opponents in Washington and Cincinnati. They are banged up on defense and have not been able to run the football whatsoever. The Colts need this game more and want to end their 6 games losing streak to the Steelers. Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite. Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of December. |
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12-26-20 | Dolphins v. Raiders +3 | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 101 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #462 Las Vegas Raiders over Miami Dolphins (8:15p.m., Saturday, December 26 NFLN) Just do not trust the Dolphins as a favorite on the road. They are coming off a big win over New England last Sunday and it will not surprise me if they have a letdown in this game. The Raiders have extra rest and I do not see much of a drop-off with Mariota as quarterback. Miami is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games during Week 16 of the regular season. Las Vegas is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played during Week 16 of the NFL season. |
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12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo -3 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 72 h 41 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #280 Buffalo Bulls over Marshall Thundering Herd (2:30p.m., Friday, December 25 ESPN) Camellia Bowl Buffalo is coming off their worst performance on the season, losing to Ball State in the MAC. Marshall has a suspect offense and that will put a lot of pressure on them to be able to stop Jaret Patterson in this game. Marshall will enter having lost 2 straight games by an average of 14.5 points. Marshall is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss in their previous game. Buffalo is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games overall. |
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12-20-20 | Chiefs -2.5 v. Saints | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 119 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #365 Kansas City Chiefs over New Orleans Saints (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 19 CBS) The Saints are coming off a devastating loss at Philadelphia last week and now will likely not earn the top seed in the NFC (only 1 team gets a bye this year). The Chiefs have been winning games but not covering the spread of late, but now they have a low number where they likely just need to win the game. QB Brees have been eyeing this date to return but I do not think it will matter. Kansas City is an offensive machine and New Orleans will have to score in the high twenties to have a chance to cover this spread. Kansas City is 11-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 16 road games against teams with a winning home record. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a winning record. |
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12-20-20 | Texans v. Colts -7 | 20-27 | Push | 0 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #342 Indianapolis Colts over Houston Texans (1p.m., Sunday, December 20 CBS) This is the second meetings in three weeks for the Texans and Colts. Houston is just playing out the string and I see them losing this game by many more points than the first game. Indianapolis got right last week in Las Vegas and expect them to continue their success. They have the ability to beat teams running the ball or throw the air and I just do not have any confidence in this Texans defense. QB Watson did not throw a touchdown pass in the first meeting (only time this season that happened). Houston is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Indianapolis is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games divisional teams. |
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12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 115 h 10 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #354 Miami Dolphins over New England Patriots (1p.m., Sunday, December 20 CBS) This is a bad situation for the Patriots, as they have fallen out of playoff contention in the AFC and will be playing their third straight road games. Teams have figured out the Patriots, and you can beat them by not turning over the football and making Cam Newton beat you through the air. Miami has covered the spread in 6 of the last 8 games against New England in Miami. This is by far the worst Patriots squad they will have faced during the last 8 years. Miami put the final nail in the coffin for New England and wins this game convincingly. |
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12-19-20 | Alabama -17 v. Florida | 52-46 | Loss | -109 | 98 h 18 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #240 Alabama Crimson Tide over Florida Gators (8p.m., Saturday, December 19 CBS) Just do not believe Florida has any desire to play in this game against a team that is much better than them. By losing to LSU last week, Florida cannot make the college football playoff. Alabama has won this game the last 6 times they have been in it by an average of 18 points per game. The Crimson Tide have been getting better on defense and expect them to contain the high-powered Florida offense. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games between Alabama and Florida. The Crimson Tide are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games played. Florida is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games. |
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12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos UNDER 50 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 39 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take Under in Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (4:30p.m., Saturday, December 19 NFLN) The Bills will be making their second trip west in three weeks and it would not surprise me if they come out a little flat after such an emotional win on Sunday Night Football. The Bills have gone under the total in 4 of their last 5 games against AFC teams. The Broncos have gone under the posted total in 23 of their last 33 games against AFC teams (1 push). |
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12-19-20 | Clemson v. Notre Dame +10.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 15 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #236 Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Clemson Tigers (4p.m., Saturday, December 19 ABC) For the first time in years, Notre Dame has the athletes to make this game competitive against the top teams from the south. The Irish already beat the Tigers this year and I just do not believe this will be a blowout with Trevor Lawrence back behind center. Notre Dame can win the ACC for the first and likely only time in their history and they will not pass up this opportunity. The Clemson defense is still the same as it was in the first meeting where Notre Dame put up 47 points in that game. Both teams will put up points in this game, but I see the result being in single digits. The Irish are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. |
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12-19-20 | Minnesota +12.5 v. Wisconsin | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #211 Minnesota Golden Gophers over Wisconsin Badgers (4p.m., Saturday, December 19 BTN) Wisconsin has a terrible offense and should not be giving this many points against anyone in the Big 10. They have a quarterback that lacks confidence, and they are playing a team that has won 3 of their last 4 games. Wisconsin may get some playmakers back for this game, but I just cannot overlook the fact that they have scored 20 combined points in their last 3 days. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon v. USC -3 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -106 | 74 h 5 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #252 USC Trojans over Oregon Ducks (8p.m., Friday, December 18 FOX) Oregon was a late add to this game after Washington did not have enough healthy players. The Trojans have a major edge getting to play this game at their home stadium and I just do not trust Oregon enough to keep this close. Both teams have played down to the level of their competition, but USC tends to pull away late, whereas Oregon often loses close games. Losing to Cal and Oregon State is embarrassing for the Ducks and now they must face a team with better talent and experience than what they have. Oregon is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. USC is 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 games between Oregon and USC. |
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12-13-20 | Cardinals v. Giants +2.5 | Top | 26-7 | Loss | -100 | 116 h 47 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #158 New York Giants over Arizona Cardinals (1p.m., Sunday, December 13 CBS) Just believe these two teams are heading in opposite directions. Arizona is a fluke play away from losing 5 straight games and they may need to win 3 of their last 4 to make the playoffs. The Giants have won 4 straight and have control of the NFC East since they own the tiebreaker with Washington. They are coming off their best performance of the year beating Seattle in the Emerald City last time out. It goes not matter who the Giants start at quarterback, they are going to win this game. Arizona has been easy to run on of late and Wayne Gallman should put up big numbers. Arizona is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite. The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. |
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12-12-20 | Virginia +2 v. Virginia Tech | 15-33 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #421 Virginia Cavaliers over Virginia Tech Hokies (8p.m., Saturday, December 12 ACCN) Virginia beat Virginia Tech last season for the first time in 16 years and look for them to make it 2 in a row on Saturday night. Both teams play a lot of people at quarterback, but the Hokies are coming off a blood bath against Clemson last week and I do not feel they will be ready to bounce back in just one week. Virginia Tech enters this game having lost 4 straight games and they have been blown out in their last two (lost 47-14 to Pittsburgh). Justin Fuente is on the hot seat and he may not survive if things do not go well on Saturday. Virginia will enter this game having won 4 straight games. |
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12-12-20 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +1.5 | 7-28 | Win | 100 | 94 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #386 Iowa Hawkeyes over Wisconsin Badgers (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 12 FS1) The Badgers lack confidence on the offensive side of the football, and they have been exposed for their lack of playmakers. Iowa has a chance to end this 4-game losing streak to Wisconsin by getting them at home this season. Iowa has won 5 straight games and only one of those wins came by less than double-digits. They have a better defense than does Indiana and expect them to crowd the line and force Wisconsin to beat them over the top with deep throws. Wisconsin is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Iowa is 4-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 games. |
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12-12-20 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. Louisville | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #113 Wake Forest Demon Deacons over Louisville Cardinals (12p.m., Saturday, December 12 ACCN) Just do not like this Louisville team in 2020. They appear to have taken a step back in year two under Scott Satterfield. They are 3-7 this season and do not have any quality wins among those three. Wake Forest does not have a bad loss this season and they also have some quality wins against Virginia Tech and Virginia. Both of those teams are better than what they will see today from Louisville. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between Wake Forest and Louisville. But this game just comes down to Wake Forest having an identity on offense (up-tempo) and Louisville will not be able to keep up in scoring. The Demon Deacons are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Cardinals. |
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12-11-20 | Nevada +2.5 v. San Jose State | 20-30 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #309 Nevada Wolf Pack over San Jose State Spartans (10p.m., Friday, December 11 CBSSN) Just cannot picture San Jose State playing in the MWC Championship Game next week. They have a much-improved team in 2020 but I feel having to vacate the Bay Area will finally catch up with them in this likely winner take all game. The Spartans were expected to host their last two games, but they had to travel to Hawaii last week and now will play this game at Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas. Nevada has already played a game here in 2020 and they only had to leave the state of Nevada one time this season. Nevada is 15-2 straight-up and 12-5 ATS against San Jose State in the last 17 meetings. Both teams have stud quarterbacks, but the difference could lie with Nevada’s defense. |
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12-10-20 | Patriots +4.5 v. Rams | 3-24 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 42 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take #101 New England Patriots over Los Angeles Rams (8:20p.m., Thursday, December 10 Amazon Prime) Look for the Patriots to play a competitive game in Los Angeles after pounding the Chargers on Sunday. The Patriots have beaten the Rams 6 straight times (5-1 ATS) and I see them taking this game down to the wire. New England is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on Thursday. Los Angeles is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on Thursday. |
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12-07-20 | Bills -2.5 v. 49ers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 25 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #477 Buffalo Bills over San Francisco 49ers (8:15p.m., Monday, December 7 ESPN) Buffalo has already won in Arizona this season and now they get a huge advantage with the 49ers having to play on the road as well. Just not sold on the 49ers, especially on offense. QB Mullins has limitations and if Buffalo does not turn over the football, the 49ers will struggle to score points. Buffalo has gone 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC teams. They have already beaten the Rams and Seahawks, and had the Cardinals beat before giving up a Hail Mary pass with just seconds remaining. They will make it 3 of 4 on Monday night against the NFC West with a double-digit victory. |
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12-06-20 | Eagles v. Packers -9 | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 120 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #472 Green Bay Packers over Philadelphia Eagles (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 6 FOX) The Eagles had no business being less than a double-digit underdog to the Packers at Lambeau Field. Philadelphia is coming off a 6 point loss to Seattle on Monday Night Football, but at no point in that game did anyone believe they had a chance to win it. Their offense is terrible and sooner or later QB Rodgers will get hot and cruise to a double-digit victory. Philadelphia is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record. Green Bay is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against NFC teams. |
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12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers +1 | 45-0 | Loss | -106 | 120 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #474 Los Angeles Chargers over New England Patriots (4:25p.m., Sunday, December 6 CBS) The line tells me that the Chargers have the better talent in this game, but the Patriots have the better coach. QB Newton had another terrible performance last week but got bailed out late by a missed field goal and a questionable late hit out of bounds. The Patriots must play three straight road games and I do not believe that they have the talent to make the playoffs this season. New England is 2-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games played during the month of December. The opening team favored has covered the spread in 4 straight games between New England and Los Angeles. |
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12-06-20 | Lions v. Bears -3 | 34-30 | Loss | -109 | 116 h 13 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #452 Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions (1p.m., Sunday, December 6 FOX) The Lions are a mess and I do not see things getting better under Darrel Bevel as interim coach. Chicago cannot beat the Packers, but they still have a capable defense and already beat the Lions in Detroit earlier this season. Chicago has covered the spread against Detroit in 4 of their last 5 meetings. Detroit has 4 of their last 5 games and all 4 of those losses have come by double-digits. |
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12-05-20 | UCLA +3.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 25-18 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #383 UCLA Bruins over Arizona State Sun Devils (10:30p.m., Saturday, December 5 FS1) Just cannot trust Arizona State laying points in this game. The Sun Devils have been off since November 7 and now have to play a team that is getting better in UCLA. The Bruins are 2-2 and both of their losses went down to the wire and I see them winning this game straight-up. UCLA was a mess last year but dominated ASU leading by over 30 points at one point in that game. The Bruins may also get back Dorian Thompson-Robinson and that will only enhance their chances of winning this game. UCLA is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 games against Arizona State. |
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12-05-20 | Clemson -21.5 v. Virginia Tech | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 99 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #343 Clemson Tigers over Virginia Tech Hokies (7:30p.m., Saturday, December 5 ABC) Virginia Tech has been a fraud all season long and I do not see things getting any better today against one of the two best teams in the country. The Hookies are lost three straight games including getting blown out last time out against Pittsburgh. Clemons is playing to impress the voters and expect them to score a bunch of points in this game as well. The Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the Hokies. Clemson is 20-7 ATS in their last 27 ACC games. |
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12-05-20 | Clemson v. Virginia Tech OVER 67 | 45-10 | Loss | -108 | 99 h 60 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #344 Over in Clemson Tigers @ Virginia Tech Hokies (7:30p.m., Saturday, December 5 ABC) We have Clemson in this game and if they cover this big spread as expected this game should go over the posted total as well. We easily hit the over with Clemson last week and will look to make it two in a row. Clemson has gone over the posted total in 5 straight games. Virginia Tech has gone over the posted total in 8 of their last 11 games. |
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12-05-20 | Florida v. Tennessee +17.5 | 31-19 | Win | 100 | 95 h 44 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take #378 Tennessee Volunteers over Florida Gators (3:30p.m., Saturday, December 5 CBS) The talent level does not warrant this big of a number, but Tennessee has lost 5 straight games and has a coach on the hot seat. But if there was ever a game that could get up for it would be this one. The home team has won 4 of the past 5 matchups (4-1 ATS). Florida might be looking ahead as they control their own destiny to make the College Football Playoffs. Tennessee finds a way to keep this around 7-10 points, as Florida has not been that impressive in their last two games. |
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12-05-20 | Ohio State -23 v. Michigan State | 52-12 | Win | 100 | 91 h 15 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #355 Ohio State Buckeyes over Michigan State Spartans (12p.m., Saturday, December 5 ABC) Michigan State has pulled off two surprising upsets this year but all three of their losses have come by double digits. Now they are set to face the best team in the league and I do not see them keeping this game close whatsoever. The Buckeyes are beaten Michigan State 4 straight times and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games in East Lansing. Michigan State just do not have the offense to threaten this suspect secondary of Ohio State. Michigan State is 3-14 ATS in their last 17 home games. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. |
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12-02-20 | Ravens v. Steelers -10 | 14-19 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 29 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take #278 Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens (4:30p.m., Wednesday December 2 NBC) Just do not see the Steelers losing their unbeaten streak to the Ravens at home on Thanksgiving. The Steelers are the best team in the league mainly due to their defense, and I expect the Ravens to struggle moving the football in this game. Baltimore is coming off a devastating loss on Sunday to Tennessee, and I just do not believe they can recover in 4 days. Pittsburgh has covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 games and already beat Baltimore on the road this season. Baltimore is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss in their previous game. Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against teams with a winning record. |
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11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6.5 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #276 Philadelphia Eagles +5 over Seattle Seahawks (8:15p.m., Monday, November 30 ESPN) Just do not trust the Seahawks defense, especially on the road against a desperate team. QB Wilson has thrown 7 interceptions over his last 5 games and he has fallen out of the MVP race. QB Wentz has been poor as well, but I trust that he will play better at home. The Eagles still sit atop the standings in the NFC East. And if they can win games like this, they will win the division. Just do not believe they Seahawks can beat the Eagles 7 straight times. They have been similar teams over the last decade, and Philadelphia is the more desperate team tonight. |
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11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -7.5 | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 125 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #274 Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears (8:20p.m., Sunday, November 29 NBC) The Bears are a sinking ship now, and this just cannot find a quarterback that can consistently win game. The Packers have won 7 of the last 8 games against the Bears (5-3 ATS) and this is just a complete mismatch at the quarterback position. Both Bears quarterbacks have injuries, and it does not matter who starts for them, the Packers are winning this game by double digits. |
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11-29-20 | Cardinals v. Patriots +2.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #254 New England Patriots over Arizona Cardinals (1p.m., Sunday, November 29 FOX) This is just a coaching mismatch to the highest degree. The Cardinals have had an easy schedule this season and should have a better record than 6-4 (losses to Carolina, Detroit, & Miami). New England has won 6 of the last 7 games against Arizona and getting them as an underdog is too good to pass up. The Patriots still have a chance to make the playoffs and they have covered the spread in every home game that they have been an underdog in since 2005. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. New England is 36-17 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 56 games when they are an underdog. |
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11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals OVER 42 | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 33 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #256 Over in New York Giants @ Cincinnati Bengals (1p.m., Sunday, November 29 FOX) The total has been adjusted with the Joe Burrow injury but the Bengals have been an over team this year. Prior to last week the Bengals have gone over the posted total for today’s game in 4 straight games. The Giants have gone over the posted total in 4 straight road games when they are favored. The Bengals have gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 9 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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11-28-20 | Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 60.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -108 | 104 h 35 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #246 Over in Nevada Wolf Pack @ Hawaii Warriors (11p.m., Saturday, November 28 Local) The Warriors kicked it into gear last week against Boise State in the second half to cover the spread and easily go over the posted total. Nevada has played against terrible quarterbacks this season and thus their defense is not as strong as it would appear to be on paper. Hawaii has gone over the posted total in 21 of their last 29 home games when they are an underdog. Both teams want to make a statement and the best way to do that is by scoring a lot of points. |
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11-28-20 | Kansas State v. Baylor -5 | 31-32 | Loss | -115 | 100 h 36 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #234 Baylor Bears over Kansas State Wildcats (7p.m., Saturday, November 28 ESPN2) Kansas State has been a fraud of late with a terrible offense that has struggled to score points. They have quarterback issues with Will Howard getting pulled last week in their 45-0 loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats are getting outgained by over 100 yards and if Baylor does not help them, I see them winning this game by double digits. Baylor has been a tough luck loser this year with all 5 losses 11 points or less. Kansas State has not been able to stop teams rushing the football on the road. Baylor has the better quarterback, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. Teams have figured out how to stop Kansas State, but the oddsmakers have not caught up to how bad they are on offense yet. |
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11-27-20 | Stanford v. California -1 | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 8 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #138 California Golden Bears over Stanford Cardinal (4:30p.m., Friday, November 27 FOX) Cal finally gets a home game and I believe they have too much talent for Stanford in the Big Game. Cal had an edge in yards and first downs last week against Oregon State, but two interceptions did them in. Chase Garbers is too good of a player do play this poorly for many games and he will break out of his funk in this game. Stanford has yet to win a game this year as well and they are 0-5 ATS in their last 6 road PAC-12 games. Cal ended their long losing streak to Stanford last year and expect them to make it two in a row Friday in Berkley. The favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games between Stanford and Cal. The Golden Bears are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games played during the month of November. |
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11-27-20 | Nebraska v. Iowa -13 | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -113 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #148 Iowa Hawkeyes over Nebraska Cornhuskers (1p.m., Friday, November 27 FOX) The Hawkeyes have righted the ship winning 3 straight games in blowout fashion. Nebraska is terrible on both sides of the ball and I do not see things getting any better in this game. They cannot stop the run and they are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. Iowa has won 5 straight in this series and winning their games by an average of 30 points is just hard to overlook. Penn State was just as desperate last week against Iowa and they got killed. Nebraska has quarterback issues and whoever gets the start will struggle to move the football against this Iowa defense. Nebraska is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games. Iowa is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a losing record. |
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11-26-20 | Washington Football Team +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 41-16 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #123 Washington Football Team over Dallas Cowboys (4:30p.m., Thursday, November 26 FOX) Nobody can handle prosperity in the NFC East and I look for this game to go down to the wire. Dallas had a medical emergency on Tuesday and thus they were not able to practice for a team already on a short week. Washington won the first meeting by 22 points and having a stable quarterback in Alex Smith should allow this team to win some games down the stretch. The underdog is 28-13 ATS in the last 41 meetings between Washington and Dallas. |
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11-22-20 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 51 | 9-24 | Loss | -109 | 115 h 7 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #454 Over in Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints (1p.m., Sunday, November 22 FOX) No Drew Brees for this game and thus the Jameis Winston era gets underway in New Orleans. Unlike San Francisco last week, the Falcons have a capable quarterback and dynamic offense. Both teams have traditional been over plays because of their offense and expect a lot of points in this game. The Falcons have gone over the posted total in 20 of their last 26 games played on turf. The Saints have gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 9 games. |
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11-22-20 | Patriots -2 v. Texans | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 6 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #457 New England Patriots over Houston Texans (1p.m., Sunday, November 22 CBS) The Texans are one of the most disappointing teams in the league in 2020, as they have already fired their coach. JJ Watt wanted out before the trade deadline and now he is just playing out the season making sure he stays healthy. Houston has only beaten New England one time since 2009 and New England will enter having won two straight games and still is alive for playoffs. This line has swing 5 points after the Patriots beat the Ravens Sunday night and we will follow the movement. The Patriots are 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against the Texans. |
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11-22-20 | Titans v. Ravens -6 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 5 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #466 Baltimore Ravens over Tennessee Titans (1p.m., Sunday, November 22 CBS) Everyone is down on both teams, but I will side with the Ravens at home bouncing back. Baltimore has revenge on their minds, as Tennessee knocked them out of the playoffs in 2019. The Titans have lost 3 of their last 4 games including two home games. The Ravens dominated the stats against the Titans in January last year but were done in by turnovers. QB Jackson needs to prove that he has beat the good teams in the league and today is a perfect opportunity for him to do that. Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. When Baltimore wins, they usually cover, and they are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games against AFC teams. |
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11-21-20 | San Diego State v. Nevada +2 | 21-26 | Win | 100 | 94 h 43 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #388 Nevada Wolf Pack over San Diego State Aztecs (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 21 CBS) As of this writing the wrong teams is favored, as Nevada is going to make the MWC Championship Game and is a perfect 4-0 on the season. Both teams have played easily schedules this far but not being able to play in San Diego will eventually catch up with the Aztecs. They got beat by San Jose State and now have a brutal finish to the season with 3 of their last 4 games on the road (will be lucky to win 1 of them). Nevada has covered the spread in 4 of their last 6 games against SDSU and has the best player on the field in Carson Strong. The Wolf Pack defense has talent as well and I believe that the Aztec offense will struggle to move the football against them. Never been a Brady Hoke fan and feel Rocky Long was the genius of SDSU for the last decade that got them to overachieve on a consistent basis. Nevada is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. SDSU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a double-digit loss in their last home game. |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
NOTE: THIS IS A FIRST HALF PLAY. 10 Unit Play. Take #395 Wisconsin Badgers (-3.5 First Half Line) over Northwestern Wildcats (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 21 ABC) Big Ten Game of the Year Northwestern is 4-0, but they have started poorly in two of their four games. They would not have covered this number against Iowa or Nebraska, two teams that are inferior to Wisconsin. I expect Wisconsin to jump out early and feel great value lies with the first half line. Wish this line came in under a touchdown for the game, but the Badgers dominated Michigan last week and thus we are left with this higher number. Wisconsin is clearly the second-best team in the league, and the winner of this game will likely reach the Big Ten title game in Indianapolis. The Wildcats have not been as impressive since their 40-point victory over Maryland to open the season, grinding out games against Iowa, Nebraska, and Purdue to reach 4-0. Their defense is good, but they have yet to face a team like Wisconsin that can beat you on the ground or through the air. I just feel that Wisconsin is better on both sides of the football (healthier for this game compared to last) and will pull away in the second quarter to win this game by double-digits. Northwestern can only play at a certain pace. And if they get behind, they will struggle to come back if they are one-dimensional. Wisconsin is 17-7 ATS in their last 24 road games. Northwestern is 2-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 home games. |
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11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +6 | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 94 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #344 UCF Golden Knights over Cincinnati Bearcats (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 21 ESPN) We have been riding Cincinnati for most of the year including the last 3 weeks, but I finally believe that the number has been over adjusted. The Bearcats have been doing most of their damage at home and now much finish out the regular season with 3 straight road games. UCF is legit and they will be up for this game trying to knock off the Bearcats and spoil their perfect season. Cincinnati has yet to face an offense as strong as what UCF has. The home team has won 4 of the 5 games between these two teams. UCF has not been a home dog since 2016 and despite missing some key people of defense, I believe they can take this game down to the wire. |
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11-21-20 | California -3.5 v. Oregon State | 27-31 | Loss | -104 | 94 h 39 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #379 California Golden Bears over Oregon State Beavers (3:30p.m., Saturday, November 21 FS1) Think the line on this game tells us something. Cal was in an impossible situation last week having to travel to UCLA on short notice for a 9 a.m. local start at the Rose Bowl. Now they have a full week to prepare and not that their opponent will be the Oregon State Beavers, a bottom feeder program in recent years. The visitor is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 Oregon State games. Cal still has the best player on the field in Chase Garbers and his success last year just cannot be overlooked. Last week was the anomaly for the Bears and expect them to bounce back today in Corvallis. |
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11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 50 h 24 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. Take #322 Seattle Seahawks over Arizona Cardinals (8:20p.m., Thursday, November 19 Amazon Prime) Everyone is down on the Seahawks after two straight losses but those came against likely playoff teams in Los Angeles and Buffalo. Seattle gave away the first meeting blowing a double-digit lead late in the fourth quarter. Arizona is coming off a huge win when a miraculous finish to beat Buffalo last time out. Everyone is buying Arizona stock now, but I believe there is no carryover week to week in the NFL. Seattle needs this game more and they will get it behind the best player on the field in Russell Wilson. Seattle is 7-1 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 10 games played on Thursday. |
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11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | 52-44 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show | |
6 Unit Play. Take #313 Western Michigan Broncos over Central Michigan Chippewas (7p.m., Wednesday, October 18 ESPN2) Both teams enter 2-0 straight-up and against the spread. Western Michigan has the best win of the bunch beating Toledo last week in dramatic fashion. Expect that to carryover into this game against CMU. Western Michigan has won 5 of the last 6 matchups and the visitor has covered the spread in this game 8 straight games. QB Kaleb Eleby is the best player on the field throwing 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions this season. Central Michigan has 6 turnovers in just two games this season and that will not get the job done against good teams. |
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11-15-20 | Ravens v. Patriots +7.5 | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. Take #274 New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens (8:20p.m., Sunday, November 15 NBC) Just believe that this is too many points for a road game. The Patriots should have lost to the Jets last Monday, but they won as time expired and will be up for this game. QB Jackson has not played at his MVP level of 2019 and expect Coach Belichick to have a game play to contain him. The Ravens are just 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games. QB Jackson rallied for his first career victory when trailing at half last Sunday but I just do not see a blowout in this game. The underdog is 6-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 meetings. |
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11-15-20 | 49ers v. Saints OVER 49.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -111 | 121 h 55 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. Take #272 Over in San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints (4:25p.m., Sunday, November 15 FOX) The Saints finally stayed under the posted total last week against Tampa Bay, but it was not their fault. They scored 38 points in that game and expect him to hit the thirties in points on Sunday as well against the 49ers. These two teams have gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 9 meetings (1 push). The Saints have been an over team this season hitting that mark 7 of their last 8 games. They have gone over the posted total in 7 straight games as a favorite. San Francisco has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 games after a loss in their previous game. The 49ers have a ton of injuries but if they do not turn over the football, they should be able to put up some points against the Saints in this game. These two teams met in 2019 (Week 14) and the final score has 48-46 with 981 combined yards. |