Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 121 h 5 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #124 Take San Francisco 49ers over Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) We will continue to ride the 49ers after cashing for us last week. Jimmy Garoppolo is 3-0 as a starter (3-0 ATS). Still not sold on QB Blake Bortles and they feasted on Houston last week and I just do not see him being able to consistently win games on the road. Jacksonville has bad road losses this season at the Jets and at the Cardinals. Expect this to be a field goal game and we will cover the spread with whoever comes out on top. |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets +7.5 | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 118 h 3 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #108 Take New York Jets over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Chargers saw their hopes for making the playoffs all but disappear with their poor showing against the Chiefs last Saturday. Just do not feel they can get up for this game (2nd straight road game) while making a cross country flight to New York. The Jets have won more games than most people thought they would this season and this is their last home game. They played decent at New Orleans last week and I just do not see them getting run off the field since both teams do not have much to play for. New York is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog (won straight-up 5 of those games). |
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12-24-17 | Browns +6.5 v. Bears | 3-20 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 1 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #111 Take Cleveland Browns over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Many people believed this is the game Cleveland would win this season to avoid an 0-16 winless season. The Bears are never a strong play as a favorite and they are 0-6 ATS (0-6 straight-up) in their last 6 games as a home favorite. John Fox has not done enough to earn another season and Mitch Trubisky threw three interceptions last week in Detroit. The Bears are banged up in the trenches on both sides of the football and the underdog is 7-2 ATS (1 push) in Chicago’s last 10 games. |
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12-23-17 | Texas Tech v. South Florida -2.5 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 93 h 8 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #222 Take USF Bulls over Texas Tech Red Raiders (Birmingham Bowl, Saturday, 12/23 12 pm ESPN) Been a fan of this USF team all season long and they had an impressive 9-2 record in the very offensive heavy American Athletic Conference. The Bulls should have little trouble moving the football up and down the field against Texas Tech, one of the worst defenses in the country. Texas Tech is very inexperienced, and they were fortunate to win six games to become bowl eligible. The last time Texas Tech made a bowl game they got pounded and expect a similar result today against a Group of 5 team ready to pound a team from a major conference. |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders OVER 45.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 37 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #330 Take Over in Dallas Cowboys @ Oakland Raiders (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) Both teams are desperate to win this game and keep their playoffs hopes alive. Whoever wins this game will likely have to do it by putting up big numbers in the passing game setting up a strong play for the over. Oakland has gone over the posted total in 7 of their last 9 games played during Week 15 of the NFL season. |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -2 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 123 h 34 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #325 Take New England Patriots over Pittsburg Steelers (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The No. 1 seed in the AFC is likely on the line when the Patriots take on the Steelers in Pittsburgh, PA on Sunday afternoon. Pittsburgh is coming off two victories in which they were less than impressive against inferior teams. New England was flat last week against Miami, but they are never down for long and expect a big bounce back in this game. The Patriots are 3-0 against the Steelers the last two years and QB Brady has a 22-0 touchdown to interception ratio in his last 7 games against them. |
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12-17-17 | Titans v. 49ers -2 | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 76 h 31 m | Show | |
7 Unit Play. #328 Take San Francisco 49ers over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) TOP NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK. The 49ers are coming off back-to-back wins for the first time in a couple of years, and look for them to make it three in a row on Sunday. Tennessee is just not that good, and it appears their quarterback may be overrated. Tennessee lost to Arizona last week, and they have won just 2 of their past six road games (1-5 ATS). San Francisco has won two straight road games, and expect the home crowd to be engaged for the first time this season since they may have found their franchise quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo. Tennessee is 3-13 ATS (1 push) in their last 17 road games against teams with a losing home record. |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 15 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #324 Take Seattle Seahawks over Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off losses in their previous game but Seattle at home is always a tough out for teams. The Hawks already beat the Rams this season in Los Angeles. Seattle is 17-8 ATS in their last 25 divisional games as a home favorite. The Rams should have won last week against the Eagles especially when QB Wentz went down with a torn ACL, but they allowed the back-up to win the game in come from behind fashion. Just not sure if they are ready to win the NFC West. Los Angeles is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an loss in their previous game. |
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12-17-17 | Bengals +11 v. Vikings | 7-34 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 11 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #311 Take Cincinnati Bengals over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Vikings need just one victory to clinch the NFC North Division for just the second time since 2009. The were riding high entering last Sunday with an 8-game winning streak before suffering a loss at Carolina. We hit with Carolina last week and expect the Bengals to keep this closer than most believe this Sunday at US Bank Stadium. Minnesota is home for the first time in 4 weeks and with so much on the line for them I expect them to come out nervous and play this game not to lose. Cincinnati was terrible last week against Chicago but expect pride to take over and they will play much better this week. The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. |
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12-17-17 | Packers +3 v. Panthers | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 5 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #309 Take Green Bay Packers over Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Packers are still a long shot to make the playoffs, but they did get back QB Aaron Rodgers for this game and all three of their remaining opponents are ahead of them in the playoff standings. Carolina put up an impressive victory last week against Minnesota, but this team has not handled prosperity well over the years and expect them to take a step back this week. If Green Bay can stop the run I believe they will take this game down to the wire and pull it out by a field goal late. Green Bay is 25-10 in their last 35 games played during the month of December. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State -3.5 | 35-30 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 5 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #210 Take Arkansas State Red Wolves over Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Camellia Bowl, Saturday, 12/16 8 pm ESPN) These teams are very familiar with one another and Arkansas State has won the last three meetings, all of them by blowouts (51-24, 45-19, 45-0). QB Justice Hanson put up monster numbers this season throwing for over 3,600 yards and 8.4 yards per attempt. There will be a lot of points in this game, but I just believe the Red Wolves will pull away late and win this game by double digits. MTSU is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 bowl games. Arkansas State is 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. |
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12-16-17 | Oregon v. Boise State +8.5 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 98 h 42 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #206 Take Boise State Broncos over Oregon Ducks (Las Vegas Bowl, Saturday, 12/16 3:30 pm ABC) This is just too many points to be giving against Boise State. The Broncos thrive as an underdog and have covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 bowl games against Power 5 teams. Boise State is also 2-0 ATS this season as an underdog. Oregon has their quarterback back but lost their head coach who now is in charge at Florida State. Oregon just does not appear to be getting back to national dominance any time soon. Oregon is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Boise State is 4-1 ATS following a victory in their previous game. |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1 | 43-35 | Loss | -120 | 122 h 40 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #128 Take Los Angeles Rams over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) Tough situation for the Eagles having to stay on the west coast after losing to Seattle last Sunday night. These may be the two best teams they have faced all season long and I do not see things getting any easier this Sunday in Los Angeles. The Rams are on a 6-1 ATS run over their last 7 games and I just do not believe in the Eagles fully. Philadelphia has trampled bad teams and Los Angeles has a ton of talent on both sides of the football. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of December. The Rams are 8-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 12 home games against teams with a winning road record. |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 118 h 17 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #116 Take Carolina Panthers over Minnesota Vikings (Sunday 1 pm FOX) People keep waiting for the Vikings to come back down after such a high with Case Keenum as their quarterback. Sooner or later this is going to happen as his track record is not good. This is the third straight road game for the Vikings and that will eventually catch up with them. What this selection comes down to is that the Panthers just need this game more to keep their playoff hopes alive. All the trends in recent weeks favor the Vikings but despite their success most people do not believe they are a true threat to reach the Super Bowl. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an loss in their previous game. |
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12-10-17 | Packers -3 v. Browns | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 16 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #117 Take Green Bay Packers over Cleveland Browns (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Packers still feel they have a chance to make the playoffs and for that to occur this is a must win game. The Browns just do not have a strong offense, as they have been held under 300 yards for the seventh time this year. Green Bay is 3-1 against the new Browns (3-1 ATS) and has won those three games by an average of 23 points. Cleveland hung around last week against Los Angeles covering the spread, but they never threatened to win that game. Covering a 14-point spread is much different than covering a field goal spread. Green Bay is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games played during December. Cleveland is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14.5 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 121 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #371 Take Cleveland Browns over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) It is not often you find a team that is under .500 on the season but this big of a favorite in the NFL. But this may be a good luck charm for the Browns, as this is the only team Hue Jackson has beaten during his tenure as Browns coach (1-26 overall). Cleveland put up 405 yards last week outgaining the Bengals. If they do that again and take care of the football I believe they can keep this deficit in single digits. San Diego is 7-19 ATS in their last 26 home games. |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | 31-38 | Loss | -120 | 118 h 45 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #367 Take Kansas City Chiefs over New York Jets (Sunday 1 pm CBS) We will go against the grain in this game and look for the Chiefs to bounce back against the Jets. Kansas City has a major edge in talent on both sides of the football and if they play to their potential they will win this game by double digits. Despite losing five of their last six games, the Chiefs still sit atop the standing in the AFC West. Kansas City is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Sooner or later the Chiefs will figure this out and get back on track and hopefully that starts on Sunday. |
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12-03-17 | Bucs v. Packers +1.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 93 h 19 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #366 Take Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Brett Hundley played his best game of the season last week in Pittsburgh and look for the Packers to get back on track the next two weeks against inferior competition. Green Bay put up 462 total yards on offense last week and they have won the two most recent meetings with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers are also playing their third straight road game and playing in Green Bay in December is much different than practicing during the week in South Florida. Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against NFC teams. Green Bay is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played during the month of December. |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin +7 | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 101 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #328 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Ohio State Buckeyes (Saturday 8 pm FOX) People keep doubting the Badgers but all the do is win games and I just do not see this Ohio State team being able to run up and down the field on them. This is the best defense Wisconsin has ever had and QB J.T. Barrett is not the type of quarterback that can beat teams throwing the ball consistently down the field. Wisconsin looked much more impressive in games against Iowa and Michigan than did Ohio State (common opponents). This just has a different feeling that other Wisconsin appearances in the Big 10 Title Game. This Badger team is extremely confident on both sides of the football and this not as strong of Buckeye team as we have seen in the past. Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 straight games. Expect a game that is very competitive that goes down to the wire, but Wisconsin pulls it out by a field goal to advance to the CFP. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia v. Auburn -2 | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 48 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #322 Take Auburn Tigers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 4 pm CBS) The SEC East teams have not won this game since 2008 and I do not believe this will be the year that will change. Auburn is riding high after beating Alabama last week. They got banged up in that game at the running back position, but I still believe they are the better team against Georgia. The Bulldogs struggle when they cannot run the football and that will be the key for the Tigers to have success. Auburn is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games played in December. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia Southern -2.5 v. Costal Carolina | 17-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 49 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #309 Take Georgia Southern Eagles over Costal Carolina Chanticleers (Saturday 1 pm ESPN 3) Apparently Georgia Southern is the best 2-9 team in the country. I watched their entire game last week against Louisiana and it was no fluke that they were the better team. Now they are on the road again facing a Chanticleer team that will likely be without QB Tyler Keane. The Eagles have played their best two games of the season the last two weeks and look for them to complete the trifecta on Saturday. Coastal Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC -4 | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #304 Take Southern Cal Trojans over Stanford Cardinal (Friday 8 pm ESPN) USC is the fresher team for this championship and sooner or later a team from the south will win this game. USC already beat Stanford by 18 points this season and they have a major edge in talent for this game. Stanford had a physical game with Notre Dame last week and if USC can stop their rushing attack and do not believe they will be able to move the ball and score points. Stanford is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS victory in their previous game. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 121 h 52 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #268 Take Los Angeles Rams over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The are two of the surprise teams in the NFC this season. The Rams laid an egg in the second half against Minnesota last week but expect them to bounce back in a big way today at the Coliseum. The Saints have won eight straight games but exhausted a lot of energy last week to beat the Redskins in overtime last week at the Superdome. Over his career Drew Brees has not been the same quarterback when playing outdoors and the Saints have a much more important game the following week against Carolina. The Rams are 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a winning road record. |
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11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -10 | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 117 h 28 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #258 Take Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The Chiefs are in freefall at the moment but Buffalo should provide the perfect remedy to get back on track. By now you know how dysfunctional the quarterback situation is for Buffalo and despite being 5-5 this team may be lucky to win a game the rest of the season. The Chiefs defense is still playing well and sooner or later the offense will breakout and light up the scoreboard. Kansas City is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC East teams. |
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11-25-17 | Georgia Southern v. UL-Lafayette -6 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 31 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #216 Take Louisiana Ragin Cajuns over George Southern Eagles (Saturday 5 pm ESPN 3) The Eagles are coming off their first victory of the season beating South Alabama 52-0 in one of the most surprising results of the entire 2017 college football season. Now they take on a desperate Ragin Cajuns squad needing to win this game to become bowl eligible. Louisiana was a seven-point underdog last year and won, 33-26 in Statesboro. Louisiana is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. Georgia Southern is 5-14 ATS (1 push) in their last 20 games overall. Expect a double-digit victory on Senior Day for the home team. |
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11-25-17 | Alabama -4 v. Auburn | 14-26 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 60 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #225 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Would go bigger on Alabama if I believed this was a winner take all game. But the way things are going I feel they can lose this game and still make the College Football Playoffs. That being said, I still believe Alabama will win this game, something they have done 5 of the last 6 years (5-1 ATS). The difference in this game will be the Crimson Tide defense as they are allowing just 87 yards per game rushing. Alabama is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games. Expect Alabama to make a play late in the fourth quarter to win this game by 7-10 points. |
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11-25-17 | Indiana +3 v. Purdue | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 32 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #151 Take Indiana Hoosiers over Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) This Battle of Indiana has everything on the line. Besides winning the Old Oaken Bucket, the winner becomes bowl eligible and the loser finishes out the season and 5-7. Indiana has been playing better of late and will enter this game having won two straight games (both by double digits). Purdue is also coming off an impressive victory at Iowa and because of that performance they have been installed as the favorite. Indiana has won four straight in this series and had a much more difficult conference schedule. Purdue is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 home games. |
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11-24-17 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh +14 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 34 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #132 Take Pittsburgh Panthers over Miami Hurricanes (Friday 12 pm ABC) The Hurricanes have not played a road game since October 28th and in that game, they struggled to defeat the worst team in the league. Miami is coming off a 44-28 victory against Virginia and is guaranteed a spot in the ACC Championship Game. That final is misleading as they trailed by 14 points in that game before turning it on in the fourth quarter. This is be the Panthers final game of the season and I believe Miami could still lose this game and win next week against Clemson to make the College Football Playoff. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. Expect Miami to win by 7-10 points as they are looking ahead to the Championship Game next week. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #110 Take Dallas Cowboys over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 4:30 pm CBS) The Cowboys face a must win situation when they host their annual Thanksgiving Day game. The Chargers are coming off their best performance of the season but most of that success had to be with Buffalo QB Nathan Peterman throwing five interceptions. The Chargers are playing on Thanksgiving for the first time since the merger and playing Thursday games on the road is always a tough task. Dallas is getting a step down in class compared to their last two games (Philadelphia & Atlanta) and should be getting back some of their players for this game. The Chargers never seem to handle prosperity well evident by their loss at Jacksonville two weeks ago and you just cannot count on them to win games consistently. Los Angeles is 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games following a victory in their previous game. Dallas is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a losing record. |
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11-19-17 | Bengals v. Broncos -2.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
7 Unit Play. #470 Take Denver Broncos -2.5 over Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Denver laid an egg last week on NBC, but expect them to bounce back in a big way this week against a lesser opponent. Much of Denver's demise was caused by poor special teams play, and if they can clear that up they should win this game. Cincinnati is playing their third straight road game, and they are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 road games when they are an underdog. Denver still has a strong defense, and the Bengals rank last in total offense in 2017. This will not be a pretty game, but Denver playing at home in the afternoon is always a tough situation for the opponent. |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 119 h 13 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #452 Take Chicago Bears over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears are coming off a terrible performance against Green Bay last Sunday. They played terrible and coached terrible at different times in that game and still have a decent chance to win it. Now they take on the Lions, a team that has won two straight games, but they did not look impressive last week against Cleveland. The Bears beat the Lions last year in Chicago and Detroit is just 2-6 ATS (1 push) as a road favorite in a divisional game. Chicago is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 home games when they are an underdog. Chicago has already beaten Pittsburgh and Carolina at home this season and Detroit never seems to handle prosperity very well. |
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11-18-17 | San Jose State v. Colorado State -33 | 14-42 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 44 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #390 Take Colorado State Rams over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 3:30 pm CBSSN) The Spartans might be the worst team in FBS and the Rams should be able to name their score in this game. The Rams are in desperate need of a victory having lost three straight games including blowing a 14-point lead in the final two minutes last week against Boise State. The Spartans have lost 9 straight games and all their losses have been by double digits. Colorado State is angry, and they are going to take out their frustrations on San Jose State. The Spartans are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a winning record. Colorado State is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played during the month of November. |
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11-18-17 | Hawaii v. Utah State -10.5 | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 97 h 15 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #350 Take Utah State Aggies over Hawaii Warriors (Saturday 3 pm) The Warriors started off well at 2-0 but have been in freefall the rest of the season losing 7 of their last 8 games. Their only win came against San Jose State, the worst team in FBS. Utah State has won three straight games against Hawaii and will enter this game fresh as they did not play last Saturday. Utah State needs to win one of their last two games to become bowl eligible and I expect them to win this game by double digits. Hawaii is 8-25 ATS (1 push) in their last 34 games overall. Utah State is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a losing record. |
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11-18-17 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -7.5 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 94 h 13 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #416 Take Wisconsin Badgers over Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 12 pm FOX) The Badgers just continue to win games and will enter this game 10-0 and all their victories have come over today’s posted number. Wisconsin is not pretty on offense and they turn over the football way too much but their defense is outstanding. Michigan will struggle to move the football on them and sooner or later Wisconsin will pull away and win this game convincingly. Iowa had Wisconsin on the ropes last week yet they still lost by 24 points. Wisconsin has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 meetings with Michigan. Michigan is 5-10 ATS in their 15 road games as an underdog. |
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11-12-17 | Giants v. 49ers | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #271 Take New York Giants over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25 pm FOX) Hard to make a case for a play on either one of these teams. San Francisco opened as a favorite but now the Giants are favored because of their quarterback. San Francisco suffered many more injuries last Sunday against Arizona and despite losing 20-10 they were never really in that game. Jimmy Garoppolo is not expected to start this game and without him they just cannot move the football on a consistent basis. New York has their own issues as well, but I believe they will play with pride after quitting and getting embarrassed last week against Los Angeles. Just like I said last week, covering big spreads is one thing compared to having to win straight up to cover the spread. The winner will also cover the spread and that will be the New York Giants. |
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11-12-17 | Packers +5 v. Bears | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 119 h 41 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #253 Take Green Bay Packers over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) This line jumped a couple of points after the Packers performance on Monday Night against Detroit. Now it is way too high as the Bears are not good enough to be favored by this many points against anybody in the league. Green Bay has won six straight games in Chicago (5-1 ATS) and this is the first time Chicago is favored at home against a divisional team in three years. QB Rodgers is out and everyone is licking their chops to play the Packers, but I do not believe they are at a quarterback disadvantage in this game. Both teams will play this game close to the best and I believe this game will be decided by a field goal. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played during Week 10 of the regular season. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 10 games played during Week 10 of the regular season. |
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11-12-17 | Chargers +4.5 v. Jaguars | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 119 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #257 Take Los Angeles Chargers over Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Los Angeles is coming off of a bye and they will enter this game having won three of their last four games. The Chargers have won six straight against Jacksonville (6-0 ATS) including a 24-point victory last year. The road team has been the play in Jacksonville games this season as the visitor is 6-1 ATS in their last six games. The is another game that will go down to the wire and we will collect with whoever comes on top by a couple of points. Jacksonville is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a victory of more than 14 points in their previous game. |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame -3 v. Miami-FL | 8-41 | Loss | -105 | 102 h 9 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #165 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over Miami Hurricanes (Saturday 8 pm ABC) We will go against Miami again this week after losing with Virginia Tech last week. Notre Dame has much more to play for than did Virginia Tech and I see them controlling the line of scrimmage and going right at the Miami defense. The Hurricanes defense is very weak against the run allowing 170 yards rushing per game and three times teams have rushed for over 200 yards against them. That is the bread and butter for the 2017 Irish and they will cover their fourth straight road game this season. The Irish have played the better schedule thus far and sooner or later Miami will get exposed. That will occur Saturday night at Hard Rock Stadium. |
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11-11-17 | Alabama -14 v. Mississippi State | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 3 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #177 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Mississippi State Bulldogs (Saturday 7 pm ESPN) Mississippi State is 7-2 this season but both of their two losses have been blowouts. Alabama has won nine straight in this match-up (6-3 ATS). The Bulldogs were likely looking ahead to this game as they struggled to put away UMASS last week, one of the worst teams in the country. Mississippi State will struggle to put points on the board in this game against the Tide’s defense and I expect Alabama to pull away in the second half to win this game by 21-24 points. Alabama has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 road games. |
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11-11-17 | USC -13.5 v. Colorado | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #183 Take USC Trojans over Colorado Buffaloes (Saturday 1 pm FOX) USC has righted the ship after losing to Notre Dame is embarrassing fashion. They have won two straight games (Arizona & Arizona State) and both of those teams have already beaten Colorado this season. The Buffaloes appeared in control last week against ASU but fell apart in the fourth quarter and expect a carryover effect into this game in Boulder. Colorado will have a tough time becoming bowl eligible as they must win one of their final two games (@ Utah on 11/25). USC is 11-0 against Colorado with a 22-point margin of victory in those games. USC needs to win out to earn a New Year’s Six Bowl Bid (will not be the Rose Bowl) but I still believe they are the best team in the conference. |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals -1 v. 49ers | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 124 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #465 Take Arizona Cardinals over San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Cardinals got old in a hurry and this appears to be a lost season, but I still believe that they have enough to be the 49ers. San Francisco just got a boast trading for Jimmy Garoppolo but he is not expected to start this week. Covering big numbers is different than winning games and the 49ers will likely have to win straight-up to cover this short number. QB Drew Stanton is played well in the past and he has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Arizona is dominated this series of late and look for that to continue Sunday. San Francisco wants a high draft pick and the only way to get that is the keep losing games. |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 8 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #454 Take New York Giants over Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off a bye week and I just do not see the Giants getting blown out in this game. New York has owned this match-up beating Los Angeles 7 straight times (7-0 ATS) with a 13-point average margin of victory. The Rams are a nondivisional road favorite for just the third time in 10 years. I believe the Rams are playing a little over their heads now and this will be their second cross country flight in three weeks (London Game two weeks ago). The Rams are 2-10 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games against NFC teams. The Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against teams with a winning road record. |
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11-04-17 | Colorado v. Arizona State -4 | 30-41 | Win | 100 | 103 h 20 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #352 Take Arizona State Sun Devils over Colorado Buffaloes (9 pm PAC-12 Network) Arizona State laid an egg last week against USC (we had the Trojans) but they should bounce back in a big way playing their second straight home game. Colorado is not USC and they are also nowhere near the team that they were in 2016. CU-Boulder is coming off a 16-point victory against California, but they have not done well against the top teams in the league. ASU is 21-11 ATS in their last 22 home conference games. The home team has also covered three of the last four in this series. I do not see the Buffaloes winning another game this season and ASU has beaten Colorado 7 of 8 times. They not only beat them in this game they also cover the spread. |
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11-04-17 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -1 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #334 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Northwestern Wildcats (Saturday 3:30 pm BTN) Nebraska is coming off an exciting win against Purdue last time out and look for them to carry that momentum into Saturday in Lincoln. This is a game Nebraska must win to qualify for a bowl game and Coach Reilly has a knack of doing just enough to get to six wins. Northwestern is coming off an overtime victory of their own against Michigan State, but I am just not sold on them being a top team in the Big 10. QB Tanner Lee has been playing outstanding football of late with just one interception in his last four games. Northwestern is coming off back-to-back overtime victories and I wonder how much they have left in the tank. This will be a close game but in the end, I feel Nebraska finds a way to get it done. |
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11-04-17 | Iowa State v. West Virginia -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 51 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #338 Take West Virginia Mountaineers over Iowa State Cyclones (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Iowa State has been the talk of the Big 12 the last few weeks but I just do not see them going into Morgantown and leaving victorious. West Virginia has won the last three match-ups (3-0 ATS) and look for QB Grier to bounce back after throwing 4 interceptions in his last game against Oklahoma State. The Big 12 usually features a tough game every week and I believing Iowa State is playing a little over their heads now. West Virginia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of November. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions OVER 45.5 | 20-15 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #272 Take Over in Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions (Sunday 8:30 pm) Both teams have strong armed quarterbacks and I expect them to be a high scoring game where both teams move the football through the air. Detroit tends to be down in the game before making a rally in the fourth quarter. The Lions have gone over the posted total in their last 4 home games. |
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10-29-17 | Chargers v. Patriots -7.5 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 22 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #266 Take New England Patriots over Los Angeles Chargers (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Both teams enter on high notes, but I feel New England is just too tough for the Chargers playing in Foxboro. Both teams have a bye week on deck and that would seem to benefit the Patriots, who are 8-0 straight-up and 7-1 ATS over the last 8 years. New England has also beat Los Angeles three straight times (3-0 ATS). The Chargers have some defensive lineman that can pressure QB Brady, but this is a coaching mismatch and New England will pull away late to win by double digits. Los Angeles is 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following a victory in their previous game. |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | Top | 12-20 | Loss | -105 | 118 h 23 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #254 Take New Orleans Saints over Chicago Bears (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Bears victory last week was fool’s gold and they are not a good team. Furthermore, their offense is terrible, and they will not be able to keep pace this week against New Orleans. The Saints did not even play well last week on the road and still won by 9 points against a team that already pounded the Bears. New Orleans defense is for real and when you pair that with QB Brees this is a team that can make some noise in the playoffs. The Saints have won four straight games via blowout and should have no problem winning this game against a rookie quarterback by double digits. QB Mitchell Trubisky has not done anything to make we believe he can win games on his own, as he is just completing 50% of his passes. If the Saints do not beat themselves, they will win this game going away. |
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10-28-17 | USC -3 v. Arizona State | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 104 h 14 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #173 Take USC Trojans over Arizona State Sun Devils (Saturday 10:45 pm ESPN) These two teams are heading in opposite directions and the public has really turned on USC. But the talent edge is still big in the favor on USC and they have pounded the Sun Devils the last two years winning by scores of 42-12 & 41-20. USC is 14-3 in the last 17 match-ups against Arizona State. The Sun Devils are coming off back-to-back upset victories, but I believe they are playing over their heads now and will come back down from that high. USC still controls their own destiny in the South Division and sooner or later they will get back on track. That will happen Saturday night. USC is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss in their previous game. |
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10-28-17 | Washington State v. Arizona OVER 64.5 | 37-58 | Win | 100 | 103 h 48 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #200 Take Over in Washington State Cougars @ Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 9:30 pm PAC-12 Network) Both teams have explosive offenses and this I feel that this posted total is too low. Arizona is becoming the surprise team in the conference as Rich Rod was fighting for his job but now has rattled off three straight victories. The Wildcats are scoring over 43 points per game and I expect this game to be played at the pace Arizona wants. Arizona has gone over the posted total in 16 of their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. |
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10-28-17 | Nebraska +6 v. Purdue | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 0 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #117 Take Nebraska Cornhuskers over Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday 7:30 pm BTN) Nebraska seems to play better on the road as they are away from their negative fan base. The Cornhuskers are coming off a much-needed bye after facing Wisconsin & Ohio State the previous two weeks. Purdue is coming off an embarrassing loss to Rutgers and that is the type of loss that can sabotage at team for the rest of the season. Nebraska is 16-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 23 road games. Purdue is 5-12 in their last 17 home games. Coach Mike Reilly has a knack for doing just enough to get into a bowl game and I just have a feeling Nebraska wins this game straight-up. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #206 Take Ohio State Buckeyes over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 3:30 pm FOX) BIG 10 GAME OF THE YEAR. This is just a brutal scheduling situation for Penn State. They are coming off an emotional high by beating Michigan last week. This is a game their assistant coaches said they wanted to win big in the worst way. Now they must go on the road into a hostile environment against a team that must win out in order to make the College Football Playoff. Despite losing last year to Penn State, Ohio State has won 4 of the last 5 match-ups and Coach Urban Meyer is 24-10 ATS (1 push) with revenge for losing to a team in the last meeting. Since their loss to Oklahoma, Ohio State has won five straight games with their closest margin of victory 31 points. Some like to point out that all these opponents Ohio State has played have been terrible but who exactly has Penn State played this year? Michigan is way down and Penn State could have very easily lost at Iowa on September 23rd. The posted line tells me a great deal about this game, as it opened at 7 after Penn State looked dominating last Saturday. It seems to me that odds makers were begging people to put money on Penn State. We will not fall for that trap and take the better team playing at home. The Buckeyes have covered the spread in their last 4 games. |
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10-28-17 | Louisville -2.5 v. Wake Forest | 32-42 | Loss | -125 | 94 h 47 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #127 Take Louisville Cardinals over Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Saturday 12:20 pm ACC Network) Louisville has been one of the most disappointing teams in the country this season but they do have Lamar Jackson as their quarterback. That alone should allow them to beat Wake Forest for a fifth straight time. This was a close battle until Louisville pulled away big time in the second half last year winning by 44-12. That is how we see this game going as well. Sooner or later Louisville will get hot on offense and I do not believe Wake Forest will be able to keep pace with them. The Cardinals are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games against teams with a winning home record. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots -3 | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 126 h 36 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #476 Take New England Patriots over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Patriots have yet to play a complete game at home this season but I feel that will occur Sunday night in Foxboro. Atlanta has not looked that impressive in 2017 either having lost two home games and they could be 1-4 on the season for not some luck against Chicago and Detroit. Atlanta is not the same team away from the dome and I am not a fan of their new offensive coordinator. New England is 8-1 ATS off a victory in their previous game against non-divisional foes off a loss. |
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10-22-17 | Saints v. Packers +6 | Top | 26-17 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 6 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #466 Take Green Bay Packers over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 1 pm FOX) QB Rodgers will not be playing in this game but I feel that the spread has been over adjusted. Green Bay would have been around this much of a favorite if they had their No. 1 quarterback. Having a week to prepare Brett Hundley and playing at home will benefit this team and I see this as a field goal game. I believe New Orleans is playing a bit over their heads especially on defense and I expect them to revert back to the norm in this game. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3.5 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 101 h 48 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #402 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish over USC Trojans (7:30 pm NBC) Would have used this as an 8-unit play had the line come in under three but still believe it is a solid play. Notre Dame is a sleeping giant at the moment and they have a much better team that odds makers are giving them credit far. USC has a gauntlet of a schedule with no bye weeks until the end of the regular season and that has taken its toll on this team. QB Sam Donald has not played well this season and I still am not a big Clay Helton fan as a head coach. The Irish are coming off a bye week and they have covered the spread four straight week by an average of 14 points over the posted number. Notre Dame is getting the job done on both sides of the football giving up just 21 points per game. Both teams still have a shot at the playoffs and I expect Notre Dame to win by double digits. |
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10-21-17 | Michigan v. Penn State -9 | 13-42 | Win | 100 | 101 h 46 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #356 Take Penn State Nittany Lions over Michigan Wolverines (Saturday 7:30 pm ABC) Penn State got embarrassed last year at Michigan but they have not lost a regular season game since then. They are loaded and Michigan is still searching for answers especially on the offensive side of the football. The Lions are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games as a favorite. Michigan still has a solid defense but this will be the best offense they have faced this season. I also believe that Coach Franklin will want to run up the score if given a chance in this game to make a statement. Michigan is 1-4 ATS (1 push) in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Penn State is 13-1 ATS (2 pushes) in their last 16 games overall. |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri -15 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 93 h 9 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #374 Take Missouri Tigers over Idaho Vandals (Saturday 12 pm SEC Network) Missouri has played much better the last two weeks with their offense finally getting it together and I believe they will outscore their way to a 20+ point victory in this game. Idaho led 20-0 last week against Appalachian State before giving up 23 unanswered points in a loss. Idaho is just 1-10 ATS vs Power 5 teams and Missouri tends to blowout Group of Five teams. Idaho is just coming for a check and I do not expect them to put up much of a fight. |
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10-20-17 | Air Force v. Nevada +6 | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 79 h 47 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #312 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Air Force Falcons (Friday 9:30 pm CBSSN) Nevada has put together back-to-back impressive performances in their last two weeks and I look for them to carry that over into their homecoming game on Friday night. Air Force is playing their third road game in the last four weeks and will struggle to defend the Air Raid offense of Nevada. The Pack have struggled to stop the triple option in the past but this is a new defensive scheme and I just do not see them getting run off the field at home. Air Force is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. Nevada has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. This should be a field goal spread and getting this many points is too good to pass up. |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2.5 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 121 h 13 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #268 Take Arizona Cardinals over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) We have been very successful all season long picking teams that looked bad the previous week and we will again use that format. Arizona did not come to play last week at Philadelphia but they still have some talent on both sides of the football. Arizona blasted Tampa Bay last season by a score of 40-7 and this is a game they need in the worst way to keep their slim chances of a playoff spot alive. Arizona has yet to cover a spread this season but I feel the odds makers have over adjusted the spread in this game. Arizona should be favored since and homefield will give them a big edge in this game. |
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10-15-17 | Browns +11 v. Texans | 17-33 | Loss | -135 | 118 h 9 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #251 Take Cleveland Browns over Houston Texans (Sunday 1 pm CBS) This was supposed to be a battle of rookie quarterbacks with the same first name (different spelling) but Cleveland benched DeShone Kizer. I feel that will help the Browns on offense playing a team that suffered major injuries on defense. Houston put up a lot of points last week against Kansas City but they were never really in that game and most of those stats and points came in garbage time. Just feel Cleveland will be somewhat competitive and keep it as a one score game. Houston tends to play to their level of competition and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against teams with a losing record. |
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10-14-17 | UCLA v. Arizona +1.5 | 30-47 | Win | 100 | 102 h 7 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #178 Take Arizona Wildcats over UCLA Bruins (Saturday 9 pm PAC-12 Network) Rich Rod deserves credit for turning around the Wildcats this season and likely saving his job. The same cannot be said for Jim Mora, as he has yet to elevate the Bruins to one of the top teams in the league. UCLA has owned this season of late but this is the final stretch over the last month of playing three road games. UCLA struggles to stop the run and that is what Arizona does best. UCLA is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games. |
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10-14-17 | Northern Illinois -4 v. Buffalo | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 36 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #127 Take Northern Illinois Huskies over Buffalo Bulls (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN 3) Just do not know how much the Bulls have left in the tank after a marathon 7 overtime loss against Western Michigan last Saturday. They have a coach that appears in over his head and NIU has owned this series going 9-0 in the last 9 meetings winning by an average margin of 29 points per game (7-2 ATS). The Huskies have played a brutal schedule thus far and should find it easier to move the football against the Bulls. Northern Illinois is 33-15 ATS (3 pushes) in their last 51 road games. |
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10-14-17 | Connecticut v. Temple -9.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -120 | 93 h 4 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #130 Take Temple Owls over Connecticut Huskies (Saturday 12 pm ESPNN) No play against UCONN is a bad play as they have been getting bombed on the road and today should be no different. The Owls played their best game of the season last week against East Carolina and they should win this game big as well. Temple is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home favorite. UCONN is 8-19 ATS (1 push) in their last 28 games as an away underdog. Connecticut struggles in pass defense and I just do not believe they will be able to keep pace in this game. |
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10-08-17 | Ravens +2.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 17 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #469 Take Baltimore Ravens over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:05 pm CBS) The Raiders have never been a team that seems to handle prosperity well and become a consistent playoff team. They have looked terrible on offense the last two weeks and now must play a game without their QB Derek Carr. Baltimore looked terrible last week as well against Pittsburgh but should be able to move the football better against this Oakland defense. The Raiders are never a good play as a home favorite going 11-25 in their last 36 occurrences. This was a one-point game last year with Oakland winning and I just cannot see Oakland blowing them out with E.J. Manuel behind center. Baltimore cannot play as bad on offense as they did last week, can they? |
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10-08-17 | Cardinals +6.5 v. Eagles | 7-34 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 51 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #463 Take Arizona Cardinals +6.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Cardinals have not looked impressive whatsoever to open the season but they are 2-2. Philadelphia is improved but they are not good enough to be laying this many points against a decent Arizona team. Sooner or later Arizona will put it all together and they still have weapons on both sides of the football. Arizona has covered the spread against Philadelphia in their last five meetings. This will be a game that goes down to the wire and we will cover with the underdog with whoever comes out on top. |
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10-07-17 | Arizona v. Colorado -6 | 45-42 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 16 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #372 Take Colorado Buffaloes over Arizona Wildcats (Saturday 8 pm PAC-12 Network) the Buffaloes have a two-game losing streak but this is a get well game for them in Boulder against a team that has a coach squarely on the hot seat. Colorado had to replace much of their talent from last year’s South Division Championship. The Wildcats have gone downhill in a big way since the Rich Rod tenure started with some early success. They do not have a quality win this season and turned over the football five times last week against Utah. CU-Boulder won this game by 25 points last year in Tucson and they are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a conference favorite. Arizona is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games as a conference underdog. Colorado is well coached and this is a game they must get to keep confidence high for the entire 2017 season. They will get it by double digits. |
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10-07-17 | Missouri v. Kentucky -10 | Top | 34-40 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 49 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #402 Take Kentucky Wildcats over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm SEC Network) Missouri is a terrible team and we will go against them for a second straight week (Won big with Auburn in their last game). The Tigers have been blown out three straight games and only Auburn is a ranked team that they faced. Getting blown out by Purdue and South Carolina is a head scratching moment for a coach that is in over his head. This will be Missouri’s first road game and they are TERRIBLE on both sides of the football. They have nothing to hang their head on as their offense has not been able to move the football after their first game against an FCS team. Kentucky did not look that impressive against Eastern Michigan but they did hold the Eagles to just 20 yards rushing. Kentucky has a very solid rush defense and if they can make the Tigers one dimensional that should be enough to win this game big. We said two weeks ago that playing Missouri is a get-well game for the Auburn offense and the same thing will be true on Saturday for Kentucky. Missouri is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. Kentucky has covered the spread in 8 of their last 9 SEC games. |
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10-07-17 | West Virginia v. TCU -13 | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 46 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #388 Take TCU Horned Frogs over West Virginia Mountaineers (Saturday 12:30 pm FS1) These teams are just heading in opposite directions this season. West Virginia had a replace a ton of talent from 2016 and TCU has most of their talent back. TCU has a huge advantage on defense compared to West Virginia, as the Mountaineers struggle to stop the run. Both teams are coming off a bye and TCU is 10-2 ATS when coming off a bye during the regular season. This is a consensus play among most of the weekly newsletters that come out and it has all the keys to indicate a blowout by the home team. Revenge and a weak home record in 2016 will make sure TCU has the full attention of West Virginia. |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #303 Take New England Patriots over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday 8:25 pm CBS) The Patriots have played just one road game this season and that was a 16 point victory at the New Orleans Saints. That is how we see this game going as well against another NFC West team. New England will put points on the board and I just cannot see the Tampa Bay Buccaneers keeping pace. Tampa Bay is missing some key players on defense and QB Tom Brady has a variety of weapons he can just to move the football. New England has god awful on defense last week against Carolina and I believe they can only go up from there. Not sure Jameis Winston can pick them apart the way Cam Newton did. New England is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against teams with a winning record. |
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10-01-17 | Raiders v. Broncos -2.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 123 h 46 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #276 Take Denver Broncos over Oakland Raiders (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) Oakland was exposed last week and I do not believe they will challenge to be the top team in the AFC. Now they are playing on the road for a second straight week against a divisional rival. Denver has won 8 of the last 10 games against Oakland. Denver has a bye on deck and the favorite has covered 8 of the last 9 games. Denver has a much better defense than does Oakland and playing in the Mile-High air should give QB Siemian some confidence. Denver is always a tough team to beat early in the season, especially at home and they get the job done against on Sunday afternoon. |
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 122 h 18 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #269 Take New York Giants over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Giants put forth a much better performance last week in Philadelphia but were done in by a 61 yard field goal as time expired. OBJ is getting closer to 100% and he gives the Giants a threat in the passing game that few teams in the league have. Tampa Bay is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games when they are a favorite of more than two points. Sooner or later the Giants are going to put it all together and win a game. Now is as good as time as any. Tampa Bay is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played during Week 4. New York is 8-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games played during Week 4. |
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10-01-17 | Panthers v. Patriots -8 | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 14 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #254 Take New England Patriots over Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The Patriots have yet to look impressive at home but this is the game they will break out and win by double digits. Carolina was exposed last getting blown out by the Saints, a team New England has already beaten this season. New England is 14-5 ATS when playing at home despite failing to cover the spread in their last two home games. Carolina has yet to play anybody good this season with their first three games coming against San Francisco, New Orleans, and Buffalo. New England is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games. Carolina is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games played on fieldturf. |
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09-30-17 | Nevada +10 v. Fresno State | 21-41 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 25 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #203 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Fresno State Bulldogs (Saturday 10 pm AT&T Sportsnet) Fresno State is not good enough to be laying this many points against anybody in FBS. This line is more about how bad Nevada has been playing but on paper these are two equal teams. Nevada has had quarterback issues but they are starting the quarterback that gives them the best chance to win games. The home team is 0-6 ATS in this match-up the last 6 meetings. The Bulldogs have allowed 41+ points twelve times since the start of the 2015 season. Nevada will hang around in this game as we will collect with a nice underdog. |
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09-30-17 | Iowa v. Michigan State -3.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #146 Take Michigan State Spartans over Iowa Hawkeyes (Saturday 4 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off home losses but the stats in each of those game tell a different story as to how well each team played. Michigan State put up 496 yards of total offense last week against Notre Dame but were done in by three turnovers. Iowa lost the total yardage battle to Penn State, 579-273, yet was ahead until the last play of the game. Michigan State needs to clean up the turnovers and they should win this game by double digits. Iowa is 3-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games following an ATS win in their previous game. Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. If Michigan State protects the football they will win this game by double digits. |
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09-30-17 | Georgia v. Tennessee +8 | Top | 41-0 | Loss | -115 | 98 h 56 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #180 Take Tennessee Volunteers over Georgia Bulldogs (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) The SEC is a one team league and we have seen the other members go up and down and not be able to handle prosperity. Georgia is coming off a big win against Mississippi State and now must go on the road into hostile territory. The Volunteers have won two straight games against the Bulldogs despite trailing big in both of those games. Butch Jones is not a great coach but he has a habit of keeping the game close and he will accomplish this yet again on Saturday. The point spread has been over adjusted off Georgia’s game last week and we will take advantage of a favorable line. Georgia is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a victory in their previous game. Tennessee is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State +3.5 | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 78 h 18 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #110 Take Utah State Aggies over BYU Cougars (Friday, 8 pm CBSSN) The Cougars are coming off a bye week after getting destroyed by Wisconsin in Provo the previous week. The Aggies had a get-well game against San Jose State and that should give them confidence heading into this game. BYU is without QB Tanner Mangum and they do not deserve to be favored against anybody on the road. BYU has the 7th worst offense in the country and if Utah State does not beat themselves they will win this game straight-up. BYU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Utah State is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games played on Friday. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #481 Take Seattle Seahawks +2.5 over Tennessee Titans (Sunday 4:05 pm FOX) The Hawks offense has looked terrible thus far in two games, but they still do have talent and sooner or later they will have a breakout game. Seattle has a big edge in coaching, and I see Tennessee struggling to move the football on offense. Tennessee is 0-13 ATS coming off a double-digit victory in their previous game. Seattle is 5-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 7 games as a road underdog. This will likely be a game that goes down to the wire, but I feel Seattle will come out on top. Getting points is just icing on the cake. |
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09-24-17 | Dolphins v. Jets +6 | Top | 6-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 30 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #468 Take New York Jets over Miami Dolphins (Sunday 1 pm CBS) Jay Cutler is not David Carr and I just do not believe he will be able to pick apart the Jets like the Raiders did last week. Miami was lucky to get a win last week in San Diego needing a missed field goal as time was expiring. I usually believe that teams bounce back after getting embarrassed the week before in the NFL and expect that to be the case here. This is a tough travel situation for Miami, coming back from San Diego and they have to go to London next week. Miami is 1-6 ATS (1 push) in their last 8 games played during Week 3. |
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09-23-17 | Washington -10.5 v. Colorado | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 104 h 52 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #353 Take Washington Huskies over Colorado Buffaloes (Saturday 10 pm FS1) This is a rematch of the PAC-12 Championship Game last year and I expect a similar result to the 31 point victory by Washington last year. Washington has beaten Colorado five straight times (5-0 ATS) and their defense is much more preserved than the Buffaloes. The Huskies have rolled the last two weeks and they know they need to run the table to get back to the college football playoffs. The Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Huskies gave up a backdoor cover to the Bulldogs last week but they are 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS loss in their previous game. |
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09-23-17 | Auburn -19 v. Missouri | Top | 51-14 | Win | 100 | 101 h 22 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #373 Auburn Tigers over Missouri Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN U) SEC GAME OF THE YEAR. Missou opens the 2017 season with 4 straight home games and after Saturday they will have recorded just 1 victory. Missouri has a terrible defense and this is clearly a get-well game for Auburn. Missouri has given up 66 points the last two weeks against two bad offensive teams in Purdue and South Carolina. They fired their defensive coordinator last week and still looked terrible. Auburn looked better than their total score indicated last week moving the ball up and down the field but were down in by 5 turnovers. If they protect the ball this week they will win big. Missouri is 3-9 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games played in September. |
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09-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State -11.5 | 44-31 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 25 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #384 Take Oklahoma State Cowboys over TCU Horned Frogs (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) The Pokes are on a tear and one must continue to ride them until they slow down. TCU is also 3-0 but they have not looked that impressive. Their 28-7 victory at a bad Arkansas team is very misleading. Oklahoma State has blown out TCU by 20 and 25 points the last two years. QB Mason Rudolph is one of the Heisman frontrunners and sooner or later he will pick apart this defense and get up by double digits and cruise from there. TCU will have some moments on offense as well but I just do not believe they will be able to keep pace in this game. TCU is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 lined games. Oklahoma State is 5-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. |
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09-23-17 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M -2.5 | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 94 h 39 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #394 Take Texas A & M Aggies over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) Both of these coaches are squarely on the hot seat but I just believe Kevin Sumlin has more talent on his side. A & M has won five straight conference games against Arkansas despite not covering the spread in many of those game. Now the spread is low and if they beat them for a six straight time the odds are they will also cover the spread. QB Kellen Mond is getting more confident since being forced into action and I expect him to play his best game of the season today. The Razorbacks have allowed 28+ points in 10 of their last 12 games. A & M is 17-5 ATS in their last 22 games played during September. Arkansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against teams with a winning record. |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 32 h 56 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #302 Take San Francisco 49ers over Los Angeles Rams (Thursday 8:25 pm NFL Network) The 49ers won just two games last year and both of those victories came against the Rams. The Rams have played a home heavy schedule opening with both of their first two games at the Coliseum. Los Angeles is 10-22 ATS in their last 32 division road games. The 49ers defense will keep them in this game and this is the weakest defense they will have faced thus far in the season (Carolina & Seattle). LA is 0-8 ATS (1 push) in their last 9 games against NFC teams. San Francisco is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against NFC West teams. San Francisco wins this game straight-up. |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys v. Broncos +2 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 122 h 30 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #284 Take Denver Broncos over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 4:24 pm FOX) Both teams are coming off home wins but we will ride the Broncos again to a hot start this year like what they did last year. New York looked lost without OBJ last week and Dallas will have a much tougher time containing the Broncos this week. Denver is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog. Denver is 7-0 in their past 7 home games during the first two weeks of the season. Denver has the better defense and we saw last week home far ahead the defenses are compared to the offenses in most cases. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against teams with a winning record. Best of Luck – Doc’s Sports |
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09-17-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Bucs | 7-29 | Loss | -135 | 118 h 5 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #275 Take Chicago Bears over Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday 1 pm FOX) This is just too many points to be laying considering the Bucs have yet to play a game and the Bears put forth a respectable performance against the Falcons last week. Tampa Bay is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Some are expecting a home field bump and an emotional performance since this area is recovering from a Hurricane but that certainly did not happen last week in Houston. Mike Glennon wants to play well against his former team and I believe this game will do down to the wire and just be decided by a field goal. Tampa Bay is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played during September. |
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09-17-17 | Titans -1.5 v. Jaguars | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 50 h 59 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #261 Take Tennessee Titans -1.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday 1 pm CBS) The posted line tells you a great deal about this selection. Giving that Jacksonville looked like world beaters last week in Houston and Tennessee lost at home to Oakland one would expect the Jags to be a solid home favorite. That is not the case as the odds makers are begging you to take Jacksonville. Just do not believe the coach quarterback combination is good enough to win many games and this is just a 5-6 win team. Jacksonville is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games played during week 2 of the NFL season. |
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09-16-17 | Colorado State v. Alabama -28.5 | 23-41 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 2 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #178 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Colorado State Rams (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 2) This is the second straight MWC team the Tide will face and I expect another 30 point victory for Alabama this week as well. The Rams looked awful against Colorado and I do not see things getting any better in this game against another Power 5 team (maybe the best team in the country). Colorado State is 2-5 in their road opener the last 7 years. The Tide are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against team with a winning record. |
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09-16-17 | Oregon State +21 v. Washington State | 23-52 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 40 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #173 Take Oregon State Beavers over Washington State Cougars (Saturday 5:30 pm PAC-12 Network) I really believe that this line is inflated and at the start of the year this would have been a 11-13 point spread. We are now getting great value with a team that has disappointed through three games this season. The Beavers have won 12 of the last 17 games in this series. Washington State had to rally from 21 points down last week to beat Boise State and I just do not believe they will be able to jump on the Beavers early and put them away. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games. Mike Leach is never a good play as a favorite and Washington State seems to always play to the level of their competition. This is a conference game with a desperate team and I just do not see a bloodbath. Oregon State is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 PAC-12 games. Washington State has failed to cover the spread in 4 straight home games. |
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09-16-17 | Wisconsin -13.5 v. BYU | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 99 h 43 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #153 Take Wisconsin Badgers over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ABC) BYU has one of the worst offenses in the entire country. If Ty Detmer (offensive coordinator) were not a living legend at BYU he would have been replaced after the LSU game. I still believe there is a chance that may happen after this game. BYU has just produced two touchdowns the last two weeks and they came in garbage time against Utah last Saturday night. Wisconsin is coming off a lackluster performance in which they dominated the yardage (564-248) and time of possession but were did not cover the spread because of two turnovers. They will need to clean that up in this game. BYU will hold their own on defense but they will eventually wear down because of their lack of offensive efficiency. There seems to be a rift between the offense and the defense (including coaches) and this will be the best defense BYU has faced this season (Wisconsin beat LSU last year). Wisconsin has covered the spread in six straight road games. BYU is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. The Badgers win this game by twenty points and we collect in the process as well. |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos -3 | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 123 h 54 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #482 Take Denver Broncos over Los Angeles Chargers (Monday 10:20 pm ESPN) It is now cool to trash John Elway for his apparent lack of finding a franchise quarterback after Peyton Manning retired. Denver won 9 games last season and that was 4 more than Los Angeles did in 2016. Denver has dominated this series of late winning 10 of the last 11 meetings. Wade Phillips is now with the Chargers but nobody seems to have lasting success with this franchise. Denver is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of September. Los Angeles closed on a sour note in 2016 losing five straight games against the spread. |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks v. Packers -3 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 1 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #474 Take Green Bay Packers over Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) These teams seem to meet every year with the home team dominating this series (5-0 ATS last five games). The Hawks lost in Green Bay by 28 points last season and by 10 points in 2015. Green Bay is 8-1 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 home openers. The Packers have the better offense and QB Rodgers has enough weapons to attack this strong Hawks defense in a variety of ways. Seattle is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. Green Bay is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games played during the month of September. |
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09-10-17 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Lions | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 37 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #461 Take Arizona Cardinals over Detroit Lions (Sunday 1 pm FOX) Just never been a big believer in Jim Caldwell as a consistent winning coach in the NFL. Arizona took a step backwards last season but do well in road openers going 8-1 ATS over the last nine years. Arizona went into Ford Field in 2015 and won by 25 points. Detroit is one dimensional and that will not work against an aggressive defense like Arizona. The Lions failed to cover the spread in five straight games to end the 2016. Arizona is favored on the road against a playoff team last year. That tells me all I need to know. |
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09-09-17 | Utah -1 v. BYU | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 105 h 13 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #395 Take Utah Utes over BYU Cougars (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) Utah has dominated the Holy War in recent years winning six straight and going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Provo. BYU looked god awful against LSU especially on offense. They will be better in this game but I just do not believe Ty Detmer is a good offensive coordinator that can work to his quarterback’s strengths. The Cougars did not look that impressive against Portland State either two weeks ago. Utah is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 nonconference games. BYU is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. |
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09-09-17 | Toledo v. Nevada +10 | 37-24 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 50 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #370 Take Nevada Wolf Pack over Toledo Rockets (Saturday 7 pm ESPN 3) The Wolf Pack did much better than expected against Northwestern last Saturday and could have won the game straight-up despite being a 24 point underdog. I believe they are again undervalued this week in the home debut of Coach Jay Norvell. The Rockets have not performed well when playing outside the eastern/central time zone going 1-7 straight-up in their last 8 games. Just not sold on the Rockets defense being able to hold up for 60 minutes. Both teams will put up points in this game by a do not see a double-digit deficit for the home team. Nevada held up well in the trenches last Saturday and they should be able to do that again on Saturday. Nevada has covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. |
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09-09-17 | Marshall v. NC State -24 | 20-37 | Loss | -101 | 101 h 51 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #368 Take NC State Wolfpack over Marshall Thundering Herd (Saturday 6 pm ESPN 3) We used Marshall last week and were lucky to be successful. In that game Marshall had two kickoff returns for a touchdown to go along with a pick-6. NC State dominated the yards against South Carolina but wound up with the loss. Both teams will come back to reality in this game and the result will be a 30 point victory for the home team. Marshall is 1-16 straight-up in their last 17 road openers (4-13 ATS). If they cannot move the football against Miami Oh they will not be able to move the football against a middle of the pack ACC team. Marshall is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS in their previous game. NC State is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 nonconference games. |
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09-09-17 | TCU -3 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 99 h 33 m | Show |
10 Unit Play. #364 Take TCU Horned Frogs over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) It is not often a road team is favored in a true SEC home game but it is well warranted in this situation. TCU returns a ton of experience from last year and they also have revenge on their minds after blowing a late lead to Arkansas last year in Fort Worth. TCU is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road openers winning those 9 games by an average of 18 points per game. Coach Gary Patterson is too good of a coach to be down for long and I expect TCU to come close to recording 10+ wins this season. Arkansas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games. 61% of the early money is coming in on Arkansas yet the line keeps going up. That tells me the smart money is backing the road team. |
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09-03-17 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 0 m | Show | |
3 Unit Play. #210 Take Virginia Tech Hokies -4 over West Virginia Mountaineers (Sunday 7:30 pm ESPN) I do not believe West Virginia is a top 25 team this season. They must replace a ton of talent on both sides of the football including their quarterback from last year. The Mountaineers are just 3-9 against the Hokies and the are facing a team on the rise. It is important for Virginia Tech to get off to a good start as they have not performed well in neutral site games of late. That changes tonight and they will win this game by double digits. |
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09-02-17 | Florida State v. Alabama -7 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 31 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #206 Take Alabama Crimson Tide over Florida State Seminoles (Saturday 8 pm ABC) The Crimson Tide just seem to dominate these games and I see this one as no different. Alabama is 5-0 straight-up and 4-1 ATS in their opening neutral site games the last five years. The Tide also have an experienced quarterback for a change and that should bode well in this game for them. FSU was down big earlier to a lesser Ole Miss team in 2016 and if that happens again I cannot see Alabama letting them back into the game. Florida State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Alabama has covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games. |
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09-02-17 | Georgia Southern +34 v. Auburn | 7-41 | Push | 0 | 99 h 47 m | Show | |
4 Unit Play. #189 Take Georgia Southern Eagles over Auburn Tigers (Saturday 7:30 pm SECN) The Eagles struggled last year recording only five wins after back-to-back nine win seasons. Expect them to go back to a triple option run first style and that bodes well against a big underdog since it keeps the clock running. Auburn has a trip to Death Valley on deck and I do not expect them to give away much in this game. Auburn lost five games last year and Coach Malzahn is facing adversity for the first time in his tenure at Auburn. They will win this game but it will be much closer than this inflated spread. Auburn is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played during September. |