Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-18-22 | Washington Commanders +1.5 v. Lions | 27-36 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
Commanders/Lions 1:00: Lions not ready nor deserved to be a favorite yet. Philadelphia ran all over them (216 yards) last week and it's not going to get any easier vs Washington. Commanders' revamped offense looked good last week as Wentz threw 4 TD passes and distributed the ball well to his multiple weaponry Samuel, McLaurin, Dotson and Gibson (130 all-purpose yards). Detroit does not have the secondary strength to hold up against that firepower. And sure, Commanders' defense has its concerns too. And Swift (144 yards rush last week) is outstanding; however, he's got an ankle issue and may not be at best. Also, Detroit's Center - Ragnow is out. Grab the Commanders to go to 2-0. |
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09-18-22 | Panthers +2.5 v. Giants | 16-19 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show | |
Panthers/Giants 1:00: Both teams started last week sluggishly and had strong finishes, except Giants pulled out a win and Panthers had to watch in horror a last second 58 yard field goal sail through the uprights. Look for Mayfield and company to battle back today. Carolina 10-2 ATS as a less than .500 dog vs a non-division opponent early in the season. NY 1-9 ATS at home vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss early in the season. Carolina a bit more hungry for this one. Panthers the call. |
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09-17-22 | Colorado State v. Washington State -16.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Colorado State/Washington State 5:00: Washington State coming off one of the most impressive non-conference victories in school history. They went into Madison, Wisconsin and knocked off the Badgers as a 17.5 point dog. The Cougars' defense held the vaunted Wisconsin run game to less than 4 YPC. Now, the Cougars will take on a Rams' unit that is 130th out 131 teams running the football with a paltry 36 rush YPG. And their QB Millen has been sacked 16 times! It's not that their skill personnel is bad, it's an offensive line that can't block anyone. Jay Norvell won't figure it out just yet. i don't believe Washington State will suffer a letdown here. Cougars covered 4 of last 5 at home and are 15-6 ATS at home vs a team with a losing road record. |
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09-17-22 | Kansas +9 v. Houston | 48-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Kansas/Houston 4:00: Lance Leipold gradually turning the moribund Kansas Jayhawks around. Since last season, they've now covered 5 straight games and, with a win here, could be the first Kansas team to be 3-0 SU since the 2009 team under Mark Mangino. The Jayhawks offense is cooking with QB Jalon Daniels. Kansas won a barnburner at West Virginia in OT last week. Houston's defense is nothing to rave about - allowing 455.5 YPG (116th). Jayhawks surely capable of trading points. We'll grab the points. |
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09-17-22 | BYU +3.5 v. Oregon | 20-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
BYU/Oregon 3:30: BYU plays a tough physical brand of football. They went into a slugfest with a tough Baylor team last week and came out victorious. I expect a similar result here. Oregon QB Bo Nix can light up the scoreboard vs lightweights but he's in for another heavyweight battle here. The first one didn't fare well vs Georgia and it won't go well tonight. Sitake has lots of returning starters on a deep defensive unit, a good QB Hall and quality special teams. BYU 10-0 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points off a SU win. BYU the call. |
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09-17-22 | Oklahoma -11 v. Nebraska | 49-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Nebraska Noon: Scott Frost era officially over and the transition to a new coaching staff comes at an inopportune time. Oklahoma so far has been near flawless in their execution with QB Dillon Gabriel playing well: 70% completions, 5 TDs, 0 INTs. Defensively, Sooners allowed just 16 points. Mickey Joseph, the interim HC for Nebraska will attempt to get Casey Thompson and company rolling here; however, the focus is questionable at best here. We'll look for the Sooners to deliver. |
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09-17-22 | Purdue +1.5 v. Syracuse | 29-32 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Purdue/Syracuse Noon: Syracuse screened the crap out of L'ville in Game 1 and followed up with a blowout of Jim Mora Jr.'s rebuilding project at Connecticut. Today, Babers gets his toughest test yet. Purdue was a minute away from pulling the upset against Penn State in Game 1. Brohm's boys bounced back with a blowout win over Indiana State. We'll look for the Boilermakers to follow up with a win here. Purdue more than capable of trading points with Syracuse whose offense is fueled behind QB Shrader and RB Sean Tucker. Purdue is equipped with accurate QB Aidan O'Connell and his top WR Charlie Jones who already has 21 catches for 286 yards and 4 TDs. Expect Syracuse to bracket or double him. Look for TE Durham to step up his game today. Defensively, Purdue without their star Jalen Graham. Boilermakers do have some defensive depth to handle the massive line of Syracuse and good leadership from Chris Jefferson (72 yard TD return in 4th quarter vs Penn State). Purdue sports a 16-6-2 ATS mark on the road vs teams with a winning home record. Syracuse sports a money burning 1-4 ATS mark vs Big 10. Purdue the call. |
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09-15-22 | Chargers +4 v. Chiefs | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
Chargers/Chiefs 8:15: Chargers a dangerous road dog vs their division at 16-4-2 ATS. And they're 3-0-1 ATS in Kansas City. This line moved a point when Chargers' All Pro WR Keenan Allen (hamstring) was ruled out. Nevertheless, accurate and poised QB Herbert still has a good amount of weaponry at his disposal. DeAndre Carter is on the verge of a breakout year. TE Everett an underrated TE, and Joshua Palmer shows promise in his second year. They do need Mike Williams to step up his game. And the backfield is loaded with Ekeler, Kelley, Spiller and Sony Michel. If a receiver is open, Herbert will find him. And the offensive line, bolstered in offseason, held up well vs Las Vegas. We'll look for them to follow up strong here. Chiefs are dangerous on both sides of ball but do have some secondary issues and I believe they're going to be tested tonight. And let's not forget about Chargers' defensive bookends Bosa and Mack. Keeping Maholmes in pocket will be essential and those two are the best for the job. Chargers very capable of trading points with KC as they've proven in recent years. Road team 16-5-1 ATS in this series and I'm going with the trend. Chargers the call. |
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09-12-22 | Broncos v. Seahawks +7 | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
Broncos/Seahawks 8:15: Russell Wilson now at the helm of Denver after piloting the Seattle' offense for 10 seasons. And the Seahawks are equipped with arguably the worst QB situation in the NFL with journeyman Geno Smith as the starter and former Denver cast off - Drew Lock as the backup. But if you think a Pete Carroll coached team is going to roll over, you got another thing coming. Seattle addressed the offensive line in the off-season with a strong draft and #1 pick Charles Cross and #3 pick Abraham Lucas have made strides. Carroll will most likely establish the run game with Penny, Homer and Dallas. #2 draft pick Ken Walker (hernia) most likely not ready. Establishing that run game and setting Geno Smith up with play action would be the plan. On the other side of the ball, Seahawks have solid rookie corners including Tariq Woolen who already worked his way into the starting lineup. Broncos have a rookie head coach Hackett and three novice coordinators. I don't expect the defense to be dominant like it was under defensive mastermind Fangio. Seattle sports an 8-1 ATS mark as a MNF home dog. We'll grab the TD. |
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09-11-22 | Packers v. Vikings | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
Packers/Vikings 4:25: Packers have lost 4 of the last 6 trips to Minnesota and I'm confident the Vikings can deliver again. Vikings' underrated QB Cousins loaded with weaponry and they're all healthy for a change. Thielen and Justin Jefferson spearhead one of the best WR duos in the NFL. And when RB Cook is doing his thing, Minnesota is hard to stop. Green Bay made some questionable off season moves including not re-signing one of their best pass rushers - Za'Darius Smith (44' sacks/53 tackles in 91 games). The Vikings, ironically, were glad to pick him up to add to their pass rush with Hunter. New DC Ed Donatell, who studied under one of the best defensive minds in the business - Vic Fangio, installed the 3-4 and more built to handle the teams that air it out. Reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers won't have dominant Devonte Adams (Raiders) to throw to. And Lazard (knee) is doubtful. He has rookie #2 draft pick Christian Watson as one of his go-to guys. Vikings addressed the defensive backfield in the draft and have a nice blend of talent to deliver. Minnesota the call. |
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09-11-22 | Raiders +3.5 v. Chargers | 19-24 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
Raiders/Chargers 4:25: Rematch of season finale in which Las Vegas knocked Los Angeles out of the playoffs. Dog in this series is 19-7. Raiders made some notable changes in the offseason that should help them on both sides of the ball. Offensive mastermind - Josh McDaniels now commands the sideline and he's excited to have his QB Carr throwing to arguably the best receiver in the NFL Davante Adams (picked up from GB). Add TE Waller, Renfrow and healthy RB Jacobs to the mix in back of a healthier offensive line, Raiders should be able to trade points with the best of them. Of course, Los Angeles is loaded on both sides of the ball; however, top C J.C Jackson who was acquired from NE in the offseason, had foot surgery on August 24th and won't play. Offensively, Chargers will be dangerous as usual with QB Herbert and his weaponry. But Raiders also addressed their defense in the off-season adding Chandler Jones to the mix to team with Max Crosby as a dangerous edge rushing tandem. Raiders are 5-1 ATS in Game 1 and we'll ride them here as Los Angeles offers no home field advantage. LA is 20-41-1 ATS in home games. Raiders the call. |
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09-11-22 | Giants v. Titans -5.5 | 21-20 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show | |
Giants/Titans 4:25: Brian Daboll has Bills' QB Josh Allen to thank for launching him to the head coach of NY. Thursday Night, Josh Allen had a seamless transition to new Bills' OC Dorsey as the Bills' offense never looked better. Sure, Giants won big in the draft but still need work to clean up their game. Titans are a mission team this year after getting bounced by Cincinnati in the playoffs last season. RB King Henry is healthy and despite losing A.J. Brown (Philadelphia), Tannehill has a pretty solid receiving corps assembled in Robert Woods (from Rams), TE Austin Hooper (Cleveland) and their #1 draft pick Treylon Burks (Arkansas). Giants 0-5 ATS last 5 road dog roles and 1-4 ATS in this series. Titans the call. |
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09-11-22 | Browns v. Panthers | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
Browns/Panthers 1:00: Give the edge to the home team here. Former Brown - Baker Mayfield, now the starter for the Panthers. He had the off-season shoulder surgery which cleaned up his injured left shoulder. His shoulder injury ultimately led to his departure in Cleveland. He won the starting job for Carolina and should have a major chip on his shoulder against his former team today. This is when he is at his best and we'll give him the edge over Browns' signal caller - Jacoby Brissette. Mayfield has a solid cast of weapons including a finally healthy Christian McCaffrey. Browns sluggish in Week 1 games at 6-15-1 ATS. Carolina the call. |
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09-10-22 | Colorado v. Air Force -17.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 38 h 49 m | Show | |
Colorado/Air Force 3:30: I don't expect a fall off from AF here. They racked up 582 yards on the ground last week in route of Northern Iowa. Falcons now face a Colorado defense that allowed TCU to run all over them to the tune of 275 yards. The Buffaloes won't have much time to turn around the run stop unit and focus on assignment football to stop the vaunted triple option of Air Force. And the Buffaloes do not have the QB to make any noise against the well disciplined Falcons. Dorrell's QB for the first half last week - Brendon Lewis - threw for a paltry 78 yards before relieved of duties. J. T. Shrout came in the second half and did a bit better - 157 yards and a scoring drive; however, the game was already in the balance. Lay the wood with Air Force, which is 7-1 ATS vs a less than .500 non-conference opponent. |
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09-10-22 | Memphis v. Navy +5 | Top | 37-13 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Navy 3:30: Memphis program eroding ever since Norvell left for Florida State. Silverfield now 0-10 ATS on the road with Memphis. I definitely don't feel comfortable laying points on the road here in a double revenge situation for Navy. Navy is coming off a disappointing loss to Subdivision Delaware Hens. Navy played uncharacteristically sloppy (3 turnovers) against the Hens. Look for the discipline to be instilled this week under well-organized Navy HC Niumatalolo. Memphis, which got lit up in the air against Mississippi State last week, must now turn their attention to assignment football against the Midshipmen Triple-Option. Not an easy transition. Navy sports a 5-2 ATS mark in this series and the home team is 5-0 ATS. Memphis is 0-8 ATS as a favorite of less than 10 points vs an opponent off a SU favorite loss. Grab the points at home with the Midshipmen. |
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09-10-22 | Alabama -20 v. Texas | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show | |
Alabama/Texas Noon: Texas probably did a disservice to themselves by blowing out UL-Monroe. They now got Alabama's attention. The Crimson Tide is coming off a 55-0 shellacking of Utah State whom they held to a meager 136 total yards. 'Tide eager to atone for last year's NCAA Championship loss should stay hungry here. And they should be focused here considering they have on deck the very cupcake - UL Monroe - that Texas battered last week. Sure, Sarkisian, former OC for Nick Saban, had a great recruiting class, and landed Ohio State QB transfer Quinn Ewers, who did OK in his debut vs defenseless UL Monroe. Doing just OK against the loaded Alabama defense could be problematic. Alabama All American LB Will Anderson (17' sacks last year) should be keeping Ewers up all week with the cold sweats. Defensively, Longhorns ranked 93rd defensively a year ago and, although improved, UL Monroe is no match for the offensive machine of Bryce Young and company. Saban, who rarely loses to former assistant coaches, lost twice to his disciples last year, including Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart. Saturday, he should get back on track in blowing out his former assistants. |
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09-10-22 | South Carolina +9 v. Arkansas | 30-44 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
South Carolina/Arkansas Noon: Gamecocks are no longer a pushover in the SEC. Last season, Shane Beamer delivered a winning campaign including a bowl win as a double-digit dog against North Carolina. In the offseason, SC had tremendous success in the transfer portal. They nabbed former Heisman favorite Spencer Rattler from Oklahoma and brought his TE Austin Stogner. Moreover, signed one of the top wide receivers in the nation in Antwane Wells Jr. from James Madison. All of them contributed in Week 1 win over Georgia State. Beamer has a lot of the core group of last year back plus a solid recruiting class - better than Arkansas. And just like his highly successful coaching dad - Frank Beamer, Shane has the special teams at peak performance - last week played a huge role in the win with two blocked punts and two 50-yard field goals. Look for the Gamecocks to stick around. |
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09-08-22 | Bills v. Rams +2.5 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Bills/Rams 8:20: Incumbent Super Bowl Champ Rams find themselves as an underdog and it's highly disrespectful. Sure, understand the hype of the Bills. They're loaded and the pre-season favorite to win the AFC. They do, however, won't have their best corner - Tre'Davious White (IR). Sure, Buffalo bolstered their secondary through the draft but having to deal with the dynamic All-World WR Kupp and newly acquired but outstanding and highly underrated Allen Robinson will be extremely challenging for them. And throw in a healthy TE Higbee and RB Cam Akers, Rams have the skill talent at QB Stafford's disposal. Sure, Von Miller is a threat but don't discount Rams' OT Noteboom. He's a quality replacement for retired Whitworth. And defensively, let's not forget about the most disrupting force in the NFL - Aaron Donald. And WLB Leonard Floyd is a proven pass rush threat. Moreover, CB Ramsey (should) is good to go to match on Diggs. Bills' offense is a machine with Josh Allen and his emerging talent WR Gabe Davis. Plus #2 draft choice RB James Cook is good. Nevertheless, Rams' DC has deep talent including newly acquired future Hall of Fame Mike LB Bobby Wagner. Sure, Bills got the best of the Rams the last few times, but that was with QB Goff, now at Detroit. Stafford makes a difference. Rams are 5-0 ATS in Week 1 and 10-4 ATS in September. We'll grab the undeserved dog and the points. |
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09-05-22 | Clemson -23 v. Georgia Tech | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show | |
Clemson/Georgia Tech 8:00: Clemson could be a mission team this year. They've been out of National Championship contention for a few years but don't discount Dabo Swinney. He still garnered a Top 10 recruiting class, have a devastating Front 7 coming back defensively, and bolstered their skill personnel with 5* QB Cade Klubnik if DJU struggles again. As for Georgia Tech, they've taken a nosedive since Paul Johnson and his Flex Bone left. Geoff Collins has been unable to establish a strong recruiting base in his money burning 10-21-1 ATS ledger. Clemson is breaking in new coordinators but should be fine. Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 in this series. Lay the wood. |
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09-04-22 | Florida State +3.5 v. LSU | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Florida State/LSU 7:30: Huge expectations for LSU this year with new hire Brian Kelly. And rightfully so. Kelly was sensational at Notre Dame considering his limitations on recruiting with the high academic standard of the Irish. With LSU, he'll get those 5* recruits. As for today, the Tigers are not where he'd like them to be. His QBs are not home run hitters: Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels had a mediocre season last year while redshirt freshman Nusmeier is years away from being a threat. LSU lost some stars on both sides of the ball and won't have top RB Emery (academics). On the other hand, Florida State has been quietly getting better since mid-last year under Norvell. They finished on a 5-2 ATS run down the stretch last year and started this season blowing out Duquesne in a tune-up. In that game, they had 3 backs run for 100+ yards each. And yes, they have some push up front on both sides of the ball. Florida State had lots of freshmen starts last year (32%) which was the 3rd highest in the NCAA. And Norvell has lots of returning production and solid dual threat QB in Jordan Travis. Throw in the strong Top 20 recruiting class, and Florida State should be back in business this season. Tonight, we'll look for the cover. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -4.5 v. Syracuse | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show | |
Louisville/Syracuse 8:00: Cardinals rolled the Orange last season to the tune of 41-3 as Malik Cunnigham has 5 TD's in the first half! Sure, Syracuse would love revenge but the previous year Cardinals bludgeoned them 30-9. Go back to 2019, the Cardinals won by 22 points. Simply put, Satterfield owns Babers. The Orange are also thin at QB with last year's starter DeVito transferring to Illinois. With Louisville having a lot of returning production back from last year's bowl season, we'll look for the Cardinals to get off to a good start again. |
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09-03-22 | Memphis v. Mississippi State -16.5 | 23-49 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
Memphis/Mississippi State 7:30: Bulldogs had 134 starts by sophomores last season and his team improved dramatically in scoring and stats on both sides of the ball. With that kind of returning production, look for the Bulldogs to get out of the gate strong this year. They face an eroding Memphis team under Silverfield in his third year as HC. Tigers 0-9 ATS on the road with him thus far. We'll lay the wood here. |
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09-03-22 | Houston v. UTSA +4 | Top | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Houston/UTSA 3:30: Houston super hyped off their successful 12-win season and an eyeball focused on joining the Big 12 next season. And this one is heavily overweighted with betters pounding Houston. Hype has not been good for Houston; as a matter of fact, since 1949, each time they've come off a double-digit win campaign, they've averaged just 6.5 wins the following year. Holgersen will tease you with a modicum of success and let you down the next. Don't discount UTSA and HC Traylor. They're coming off a highly successful 12-win season themselves. And lots of great skill personnel coming back including QB Frank Harris who can flat out ball. Btw: Roadrunners are 10-1 ATS as a dog of 9 points or less. Grab the points. |
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09-03-22 | Colorado State +31 v. Michigan | 7-51 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Colorado State/Michigan Noon: Much hyped Wolverines, pre-season ranked 8th in the nation. However, still uncertainty in a few areas. Harbaugh starting QB McNamara today and next week going with sophomore McCarthy. Nevertheless, offense should be solid with lots of returning starters in all areas. Defense, however, is a concern. Lost SEVEN to the NFL and not the easiest thing to sort out for week one. Colorado State is now run by Jay Norvell who produced a good offense at Nevada and went bowling his final 4 years there. He brought with him QB Clay Millen and a pair of solid receivers in Horton and Stovall. In addition, got 13 players from the transfer portal. Colorado State was respectable under defensive minded Addazio. The Rams' defense is led by returning linebackers Carter and Jackson who produced a majority of their tackles. Interestingly, the Rams were in virtually every game last season except the last game of the season vs Norvell's Nevada team which trashed them 52-10. We'll look for the Rams to cover here. |
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09-01-22 | Penn State v. Purdue +3.5 | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 15 m | Show | |
Penn State/Purdue 8:00: Penn State has dominated this series to the tune of an 8-0 run but haven't met since 2019. The Nittany Lions regressed last season losing 6 of their last 8 games; moreover, statistically went backwards both on offense and defense. Sure, QB Clifford has his OC back and a star freshman RB; however, lost a top receiver (Bell) to the NFL and have to break in 3 new offensive linemen. They had one of the worst run games in the Big 10 (13th) at 107.8 YPG. On the other hand, Purdue's HC Jeff Brohm is feeling good off a successful season and bowl win. He has his star QB Aidan O'Connell back and added Iowa's explosive WR Charlie Jones, who was the Big Ten Return Specialist winner. Purdue is a dangerous dog at home and I'll grab the points. |
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09-01-22 | West Virginia +7 v. Pittsburgh | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 120 h 27 m | Show | |
West Virginia/Pittsburgh 7:00: Pittsburgh's Narduzzi surely has his Panthers heading in the right direction. They're coming off a stellar 2021 season, have their whole offensive line back, some good defenders back, and added some blue-chip players (QB Kedon Slovis, WR Mumpfield) to replace QB Pickett (NFL) and defector WR Jordan Addison (USC). However, they won't have CB Mathis in a young secondary. West Virginia no joke. HC Neal Brown may be just 17-18 SU there in his 3 years for the Mounties, but he's a solid coach and a dangerous dog. His Mounties out recruited Pittsburgh and he's got some talent to work with. Former Trojan and Georgia Bulldog - J.T. Daniels is an upgrade and he's protected by experienced offensive line and good skill personnel. And lineman Dante Stills anchors a solid line in a well-coached defense that's young but hungry. With the dog in this series at 4-1 ATS, we'll grab the points. |
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09-01-22 | Central Michigan +21.5 v. Oklahoma State | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Oklahoma State 7:00: Tonight, it's unlikely the Chippewas will go into Stillwater and knock off the Cowboys like they did in 2016. That loss left a bad taste in Gundy's mouth but the players in that game are no longer on the field. And Central Michigan HC Mcelwain, who's been on the Chippewas' sideline since 2019, has reloaded with a pretty good team. Last season, CM finished on a 6-1 SU/ATS roll, including upsetting Washington State in the Sun Bowl. He fielded many underclassmen, and that experience will help starting the season tonight. Most of his entire offensive line that led RB Lew Nichols to 1,848 rushing yards is back. With Nichols, QB Richardson and WR Dallas Dixon leading the skill personnel, Chippewas have a fighting chance to stay in this one. And Okie State lost some key defensive personnel from their top Big 12 defense. And their defensive coordinator - Tim Knowles - bolted to Ohio State. Former Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason takes over to guide a defense that lost 6 of the top 8 tacklers. Defensively, Chippewas were tops in the nation in TFL's last season and bring back a respectable cast of players. They'll have their work cut out for them against Spencer Sanders and company. We'll look for CM to stay in this one and cover. |
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08-27-22 | Vanderbilt -9.5 v. Hawaii | 63-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt/Hawaii 10:30 Under normal season conditions, teams traveling to Hawaii have trouble there. Teams get caught up in the festivities, oceanic views, pretty women, and the adjustment to the time zone. The Commodores were bad last year but managed to be competitive in the dominant SEC down the stretch of the season covering 5 of their last 6 games. This season, Vanderbilt has a more mature team this year with more speed, a solid recruiting class (32nd in nation), and HC Lea should have them more defensively sound than a year ago. On the other hand, Hawaii had a dismal offseason - bringing in a new head coach - Timmy Chang - who lost a ton of players through the transfer portal with the dismissal of Todd Graham. The recruiting rank under Chang was in the bottom tier of the NCAA Division I. Should be a tough season for the former record setting QB and it starts tonight. Lay the wood with Vanderbilt. |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern +11.5 v. Nebraska | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
Northwestern/Nebraska 12:30: Both teams finished at 3-9 last season. The lone win for Nebraska was a 56-7 white washing of the Wildcats in Nebraska. Northwestern had a pitiful offense last season but did a decent job on the recruiting trail this season. And they do have some decent returning starters from last year. NW HC Pat Fitzgerald is dangerous as a dog with revenge vs a sub .500 team at 9-1 ATS. The 'Cats are also 5-2 ATS in August football. We'll take the double digits on this neutral field in Ireland. |
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08-27-22 | Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 52 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Northwestern/Nebraska 12:30 pm: Both of these teams' offenses I expect to be stuck in neutral in the early going. Northwestern was one of the lowest scoring teams in the nation last season and 3rd worst Red Zone offense behind U Mass. This year, still uncertainty at QB but it looks like former South Carolina QB Hilinski will get the nod. Look for NW to rely on run game behind a few dudes, including possible NFL first rounder - OT Skowronski. NW has scored 30+ in just 2 games vs Power 5 conference teams under OC Bajackian. Nebraska, on the other hand, parted ways with QB Martinez and will look for Texas transfer Casey Thompson to guide the offense. We'll look for growing pains early with new OC Mark Whipple who was with Pittsburgh last year. Of course, he had QB Pickett and WR Jordan Allison to light up the scoreboard. He doesn't quite have that kind of talent to work with yet. These teams are playing on a grass field in Ireland for the first time ever. They're a combined 1-8 O/U in their last 9 on grass. "Under" the call. |
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08-26-22 | Patriots +1 v. Raiders | 6-23 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
Patriots/Raiders 8:15: Patriots' offense was pathetic on Tuesday in the scrimmage vs Las Vegas, but Wednesday got better. Run game starting to click a bit and Las Vegas still adjusting to their new DC's schemes. Raiders' offense was stymied for the most part in the scrimmages; after all, Josh McDaniels spent 18 years as the OC of New England under Belichick. And former Patriot - QB Stidham - who should get a majority of the reps, won't have dominant WR Davante Adams (resting) at his disposal. Adams abused New England's corners in practice but won't play tonight. I like Zappe in the mop up duty for New England. He has a decent command of the offense. Patriots, always dangerous as a preseason underdog (21-9 ATS), the call. |
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08-26-22 | Patriots v. Raiders UNDER 37.5 | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
Patriots/Raiders 8:15: Patriots' offense stuck in neutral without McDaniels on their sideline calling the shots. On the other hand, Belichick knows his former OC and what he runs like the back of his hand, And the Patriots' defensive front getting it done - winning battles on the line-of-scrimmage. We'll look for a slugfest here in a low scoring game with limited, if any, explosive plays. |
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08-25-22 | 49ers v. Texans +2.5 | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
49ers/Texans 8:15: 49ers have been impressive early and then hang on late. They're 2-0 including a 17-7-win last week over Minnesota. And Shanahan pointed out that his starters will see more action tonight. As for Houston, can't discount their 2-0 pre-season ledger; however, defense has been the catalyst for the Texans; as a matter of fact, the Texans' defensive line has overachieved accounting for 11 sacks and 16 pressures while the Texans' young secondary is holding up well. Offensively, QB Davis Mills hasn't been flashy but productive enough to give the Houston defense time to recover between drives. And 3rd string QB Driskel is doing well with the mop up duty. SF is 0-4 ATS off a double digit ATS win vs an opponent off back-to-back wins. Take the home dog here. |
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08-25-22 | Packers v. Chiefs +1.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Packers/Chiefs 8:00: Oddsmakers had Chiefs at -4' early, but Andy Reid's statement to the press that he's undecided on playing starters this week shifted the line to GB as a slight favorite. That's fine. Chad Henne has proven he can guide the KC offense down the field and the KC offensive line is holding up well. Defensively, the young guys are producing: Rookie corners: Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson have shined in practices. GB, on the other hand, still haven't harmonized with Aaron Rodgers let alone Jordan Love - who will receive the lion's share of the action tonight. KC is 4-1 ATS off back-to-back SU pre-season wins and we'll grab them here. |
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08-22-22 | Falcons v. Jets +2.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
Falcons/Jets 8:00: Jets got the best of Atlanta in the scrimmages leading up to this game. We'll look for NY to deliver the goods. Flacco could see a bit of the action with a respectable Mike White playing most of the way, and Streveler mopping up. Jets a decent 8-4 ATS as a pre-season home dog. Sure, Desmond Ridder had a decent performance last week and should see limited action. Not confident with Franks in the mop up role. Jets a bit deeper defensively and we'll take the points. |
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08-21-22 | Eagles -1.5 v. Browns | 21-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show | |
Eagles/Browns 1:00: Eagles got the best of the Browns in their scrimmages this week. Eagles loaded with skill personnel and a bolstered offensive line. And QB Minshew is a capable starter for a few teams in this league. Him and Carson Strong are simply better than the Browns' mop up QBs: Dobbs and draft bust Josh Rosen. Eagles' draft was strong with Georgia DT Jordan Davis and LB Nakobe Dean. Browns' defense staunch but drops drastically after first team exits. Stefanski doesn't plan on playing starters much at all. We'll look for Philadelphia to deliver. |
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08-20-22 | Cowboys v. Chargers -3 | 32-18 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Chargers 10:00: Both teams coming off a loss, but Chargers should respond favorably. Cowboys a dismal 16-27 ATS as a pre-season road dog. Dallas should sit most of their starters and the receiving depth is thin. QB Will Grier will finally get an attempt to make the roster but Chargers have enough defensive depth to neutralize the Dallas offense, which drops off considerably when the starters sit. And Chargers' DE Rumph looks to capture that swingman spot to spell relief for Bosa and Mack. He's been impressive in camp thus far. Offensively, Chargers QB Easton Stick I like. He was solid driving the team down the field last week; hopefully, he gets a majority of the snaps over perennial backup Chase Daniel who can't get the ball downfield. And the Chargers' deep backfield of Spiller, Kelley and Rountree looking for that backup spot behind Ekeler. Chargers, a decent home favorite at 23-16 ATS, should get er done. |
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08-20-22 | Washington Commanders +5 v. Chiefs | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 43 m | Show | |
Commanders/Chiefs 4:00: Chiefs don't put much stock into pre-season, as their 19-32 ATS mark as a home favorite suggests. Washington not a big pre-season winner either, but like their late game depth that should come into play in the 4th quarter. KC and Washington will most likely use their starters early; however, KC thin at the receiving corps for Mahohmes with Hardman and Smith-Schuster laboring with injuries. Washington has ridiculous depth along their defensive front and add #2 draft choice Mathis to the mix; consequently, Commanders are in good shape to stop the heavy packages (12, 21, 13 personnel) KC throws at them. And offensively, Commanders have a solid QB rotation of Wentz, Heinicke and Sam Howell throwing to some talented receivers, including #1 draft choice Dotson. We'll grab the points. |
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08-19-22 | Saints +3 v. Packers | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 60 m | Show | |
Saints/Packers 8:00: Saints a dangerous pre-season dog at 20-9 ATS. They looked very mediocre vs the Texans last week but should step it up a notch vs Packers. They've given Green Bay fits over the years (4-1 ATS) including that blowout win in Week 1 last regular season. Backup QB Andy Dalton, who directed a nice scoring drive vs the Texans last week, should see more playing time here. Ian Book and Costello are fighting for a roster spot and will see mop up duty. Saints do have some weapons. #1 draft pick from Ohio State - Olave looks great in practices vs GB, but he'll probably see limited if any action here. Nevertheless, Saints have a bit of receiving depth this year with a finally healthy Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry. And #1 pick OT Trevor Penning who brings a bad attitude, should help protect the QB and solidify the run in a revamped offensive line. Packers' backup Jordan Love has yet to impress in prime time. Saints' defense well-orchestrated under Allen vs the Packers. Take New Orleans. |
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08-18-22 | Bears v. Seahawks -3.5 | 27-11 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Bears/Seahawks 8:00: Seahawks were a half a minute away from covering last week's game at Pittsburgh. Secondary issues cost them early and late. Look for Pete Carroll to play a big hand in helping talented young corners Bryant and Woolen to tighten things up tonight. Bears' offense still trying to rev up and QB Fields will see limited action. Backups Siemian and Peterman do not instill fear in secondaries. Seahawks' pass rush looked decent last week and should be better tonight with the Bears shuffling of their offensive line. Defensively, Bears top defensive player - Roquan Smith is out (holdout) and that should allow the Seahawks to ignite their running game despite the absence of Walker III (out). Sure, Drew Lock (Covid) won't play but Geno Smith and Eason have big opportunities to bolster their status on the depth chart tonight. They'll do it in front of an improved offensive line. Seattle the call. |
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08-15-22 | Mets +147 v. Braves | 1-13 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Mets/Braves 7:20: Mets are on a nice roll and taking command of this series. NYM now 5-1 in their last 6 vs Atlanta. And Carlos Carrasco running hot: 5-0 with a 1.69 ERA over last 42 2/3 innings. Braves, after dropping three straight to NYM, went on a nice run (6-0). And Spencer Strider is solid at home; however, he averages 3.2 innings pitched in his starts and that puts increased pressure on the bullpen. NY playing great fundamental baseball can find a way to win this one even without 3rd baseman Guillorme tonight. Mets the call. |
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08-14-22 | Vikings v. Raiders OVER 36.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Vikings/Raiders 4:25: Two offensive minded head coaches in O'Connell and McDaniels seem to have their offenses a bit further along than their defenses. Minnesota will use more 11 personnel (one RB, one TE, 4 receivers) under O'Connell. Raiders' defense under new DC Graham is more complex than it was under Gus Bradley. There are multiple different packages to install and the Raiders currently are a bit banged up on that side of the ball early. Sure, Cousins (Covid 19) won't play, but Kellen Mond and veteran Sean Mannion have multiple skill weapons at their disposal. As for the Vikings, they too have a new defensive philosophy with a bunch of talented but young secondary personnel. These guys only been together for 3 weeks and there could easily be confusion. This series is 3-0-2 O/U. We'll give the offenses the green light here and see this one go "over". |
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08-14-22 | Vikings +5 v. Raiders | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 13 m | Show | |
Vikings/Raiders 4:25: This line tilted towards Las Vegas when Cousins (Covid 19) was ruled out. But don't sweat it. Mond and Mannion have a solid surrounding cast and the Raiders' defense is in the early stages of adapting to new DC Graham. His scheme is complex and look for more confusion in the secondary. And sure, the Vikings' defense is in the same boat under a new DC. However, equipped with better personnel this season, especially in the secondary, to make plays. Remember, these Vikings were involved in six contests last season that were decided on the final play of the game. Vikings stay in games and that should carry over to the O'Connell regime. Vikings a decent pre-season road dog at 29-20 ATS and we'll grab the points. |
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08-13-22 | Rams v. Chargers -3 | 29-22 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 58 m | Show | |
Rams/Chargers 10:00: Possible early struggles for the Rams who most likely won't have QB Stafford (arm). Chargers' defense should be much improved this year with off-season additions (Mack) and a healthy secondary. And not that confident in Rams' QBs Perkins and Perez down the stretch. Chargers are loaded offensively. They even bolstered their offensive line through the draft for QB Herbert. Chargers #1 pick G Zion Johnson should help significantly in protecting Herbert and opening up holes for RB Ekeler and #4 pick Spiller. What could be problematic late for the Rams in this game is the secondary depth. McVay has 6 defensive backs sitting in this game, including Ramsey, Hill, Rapp, Fuller, Scott and Long Jr. Not a fan of career backup QB Daniel who struggles to get the ball down the field, but Stick and Peters could play in to working the Rams' thin secondary late. Fair value with the Chargers here. |
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08-13-22 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Steelers | 25-32 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 30 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Steelers 7:00: Seahawks went into rebuild mode and I like it. They bolstered their offensive line through the draft with two fine OTs and #2 pick RB Kenneth Walker III should flourish with Penny in Carroll's system. Sure, QB Wilson is a huge loss but Geno Smith and Drew Lock should hold the fort down until a big signing. And remember, 3rd team QB Eason threw 41 completions last preseason (5th in NFL) and decent in mop up duty. On the other hand, I like what Carroll is doing with the defense. He's gotten some great additions in the draft - #2 CB Bryant and #5 pick 6'4" Tariq Woolen. And a new DC Hurtt was long overdue. Steelers expended their #1 on QB Pickett. I don't believe he's the long term answer for Big Ben. Steelers have a few receivers banged up today. Seattle always dangerous as a pre-season road dog at 32-18 ATS. Seattle the call. |
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08-12-22 | Browns +2.5 v. Jaguars | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show | |
Browns/Jaguars 7:00: New Jaguars' HC Pederson should have his men playing better this year. Tonight, though, edge to the Browns. Browns' Watson has been working hard with the first team and he has a good surrounding cast with plenty of skill talent, including a deep backfield. And veteran QB Brissett is a quality starter in this league and should be ready for Week 1 when Watson most likely will serve the start of his suspension. And the Browns' defense should improve this year. Jaguars got a game under their belt last week and that usually serves as an advantage. They're given fair value as a favorite but like the Brownies as a hungry dog; after all, they're 10-2 ATS vs less than .500 opponents in preseason. Jax doesn't play the favorite role well off a SU loss at 4-10 ATS. Browns the call. |
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08-12-22 | Falcons v. Lions | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
Falcons/Lions 6:00: Falcons a bit more ahead in progression on both sides of the ball than Detroit. Last season, Falcons improved defensively under veteran DC Dean Pees; however, pass rush was bad. Falcons healthier on that side of the ball and 2nd round draft pick Ebiketie should help aid in sacks. On the other side of the ball, Mariota and Ridder rotation much further along than the Goff, Boyle Blough rotation under new OC Ben Johnson. Falcons covered well on road last year and control a 5-1 ATS mark at Detroit. Falcons the call. |
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08-11-22 | Giants v. Patriots +3 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Giants/Patriots 7:00: Lots of hype on the Giants. The success of their draft, offensive guru and new HC Daboll, and a healthy RB Barkely turning heads in pre-season camp. On the other hand, Patriots' offense seemingly struggling with new OC Patricia. And that disparity is reflected in the line. Don't rule out the Patriots. They're deeply rooted in discipline while Giants are in the early stages of adapting to a new system across the board. Patriots 20-9 ATS as pre-season dogs always a concern for faders. And the 3-9 ATS mark for NYG as road favorites equally a concern for Giants' backers. And it should be. Patriots will mop up late with slinging QB Zappe and we'll grab the points. |
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08-09-22 | Yankees v. Mariners +124 | 0-1 | Win | 124 | 4 h 36 m | Show | |
Yankees/Mariners 10:10: Neither team playing lights out. Yankees, however, on a 1-5 slide after winning for the first time since August 1st in New York. Seattle has responded to losses well recently going 4-1 off a loss, and 5-0 after allowing 5+ runs. Yankees paid the price for that win yesterday losing their DH Carpenter (foot) who was batting a healthy .305 as of yesterday. And the Bronx Bombers will have to face Luis Castillo again. Castillo came over to Seattle from Cincinnati. He did well in his first start in a Seattle uniform beating the Yankees on August 3rd allowing 3 ERs in 6 2/3 quality innings. Sure, Yankees got a good look at Castillo and have done well facing pitchers twice or three times a year; however, Castillo is a gamer and the bullpen has been respectable. Yankees counter with Gerritt Cole who hit a rough patch. He's allowed 11 runs in 12 innings of work, including that August 3rd matchup when he allowed 7 ERs. Cole has been in these slumps before it took a few games to shake out of it. With Seattle 6-0 on Tuesdays, 13-3 in Game 2 of a series, and 5-2 at home when the 'total' is set at 7 to 8', we'll ride the Mariners here. |
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08-06-22 | Yankees v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | 0-1 | Loss | -114 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
German/Montgomery 7:15: Maybe a pitcher-friendly park but both teams set for blast off tonight. Cardinals will put newly acquired Montgomery on the mound to face his former team. Montgomery struggled in his last 2 starts for the Yankees. He allowed 8 runs in 6 1/3 innings. Yankees are 3-0-1 O/U in last 4 vs lefty starters. Aaron Judge is on fire (.404 BA, 10 HRs, 23 RBI) since All-Star break. Yankees counter with struggling Domingo German (6.39 ERA/1.82 WHIP) and NY should go to bullpen early; after all, German averages about 4.1 IPG in limited action as a starter. He's facing a formidable Cardinals' lineup currently led by Goldschmidt and Arenado. Cardinals are 7-1 O/U in last 8 at home vs teams with winning records. And they're 20-8 O/U in their last 28 vs AL East. "Over" the call. |
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08-05-22 | Red Sox v. Royals +101 | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 56 m | Show | |
Red Sox/Kansas City 8:10: Tonight, we'll give the edge to the Royals with cagey veteran Zack Greinke on the mound. He's been outstanding at home this season at 3-1 with a 1.65 ERA. In his last 4 starts at home, he's allowed just 2 runs over 22 innings of work. Although he hasn't pitched well vs Boston in his career, he should do well against this Boston lineup. Boston counters with rookie Josh Winckowski. Before a solid effort on Sunday vs Milwaukee, Winckowski got beat up in 4 straight starts (6.75 ERA). We'll look for more growing pains for the kid here in Kansas City. Boston just 5-13 off a loss and 3 and 8 in their last 11 road tilts. KC the call. |
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08-04-22 | Blue Jays v. Twins +112 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 9 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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08-01-22 | Dodgers v. Giants +126 | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 57 m | Show | |
Dodgers/Giants 9:45: Dodgers playing great ball, but Giants have a good chance with Webb tonight. Logan Webb has been money at home and at night. And in 7 starts vs the Dodgers, he sports a respectable 3.28 ERA. Weeks back, he threw 6 solid innings allowing 1 ER to the Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. He's very comfortable at home and capable of going deep into the game. On the other hand, former Angel and often injured Andrew Heaney takes the hill for LA. He sports a bloated 7.02 ERA vs SF in 4 starts. Dodgers just 2-5 their last 7 in SF. Giants are 8-1 in their last 9 home games when the 'total' is set between 7 and 8. Take SF |
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07-30-22 | Twins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Twins/Padres 7:15: Padres finally broke out of their power slump last night by launching 5 HRs off respectable Joe Ryan. Padres on a 5-4-1 O/U run. We'll look for the momentum to carry over against Sonny Gray who doesn't do his best work at night (4.70 ERA). Padres counter with fan favorite Joe Musgrove. Musgrove started the season virtually unhittable but has given up 9 ER on 14 hits over his last 10 1/3 innings. And he's 0-2 with a lofty 9.72 ERA vs Minnesota. Twins are 6-0 O/U in interleague road vs teams above .500. Padres now 4-0-1 O/U in last 5 when 'total' set between 7 to 8'. Shift in run momentum gives us an "over" play here. |
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07-30-22 | Twins +120 v. Padres | 7-4 | Win | 120 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Twins/Padres 7:15: Twins sport a solid 21-8 mark following a game in which they scored 2 runs or less. They haven't lost 4 straight games all season. We'll look for Minnesota to bounce back strong with Sonny Gray taking the hill. He's held batters to .225 BA this season. Twins are 9-5 when he starts. On the other hand, Padres counter with Joe Musgrove. Musgrove was lights out earlier this season but now struggling - giving up 9 ER on 14 hits over his last 10 1/3 IP. He's 0-2 vs Minnesota with a bloated 9.72 ERA. With the Twins 6-1 on Saturday, we'll look for them to bounce back strong here. |
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07-28-22 | Guardians -113 v. Red Sox | 2-4 | Loss | -113 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
Guardians/Red Sox 7:10: Cleveland on a 7-3 run while the Red Sox struggling on a 2-11 slide. Over a span of 2 1/2 weeks, Boston has 16 errors (3 with Cordero yesterday), 11 unearned runs. Worse yet, Boston starters are 0-12 with a lofty 7.65 ERA this month. Kutter Crawford will try to stop the bleeding tonight. He's done some good work lately (1-1 2.82 ERA last 4 starts) but can't forget his only start vs Cleveland last September -giving up 5 ER in 2 innings. On the other hand, Cleveland's Triston McKenzie has found a nice groove with a 3-0 run with a 0.34 ERA over his last 4 starts. This will be his first start vs the Red Sox. Boston misses injured Story and Devers, which started the 2-11 slide. We'll back the Guardians here. |
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07-27-22 | Giants -108 v. Diamondbacks | 3-5 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
San Francisco/Arizona 3:40: Giants sluggish after All-Star break mired in an 0-6 slide being outscored 39-16 over that stretch. We'll look for them to break out today vs Zac Allen. Allen has been inconsistent this season. He's coming off a brilliant game vs Washington but could struggle here. He sports a 1-4 mark with a bloated 5.05 ERA in 8 starts vs the Giants. Giants are countering with Logan Webb who has been rock solid (1.38 last 4 starts), and 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in 4 starts vs Arizona. SF sports a 35-16 mark in this series and overdue to get back on track here. They're 4-1 in Game 3 of a series while Arizona has a futile history in Game 3 at 26-57. Giants the call. |
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07-26-22 | Braves -112 v. Phillies | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 26 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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07-25-22 | Angels v. Royals -105 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show | |
Angels/Royals 8:10: KC showing progress winning 2 of 3 since break. Angels 2-8 slide as they finally won in a big way yesterday at Atlanta. Look for former Angel - Zach Greinke to settle the Angels' bats back down. Veteran right hander won 3 of his last 5 starts and sports a respectable 3.57 ERA in 19 games vs the Angels. On the other hand, Syndergaard is a mere 1-7 in his last 8 starts. Angeles just 10-27 in Game 1 of a series. KC is 7-3 in Game 1 of a series and won 6 of their last 8 in their home park. KC has taken 2 of 3 in this series this season and should deliver tonight. |
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07-24-22 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 8 | 5-8 | Loss | -114 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
Padres/Mets 7:08: Analysis to follow... |
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07-23-22 | Padres +140 v. Mets | 2-1 | Win | 140 | 4 h 23 m | Show | |
Padres/Mets 7:10: I'll take the value with former AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell. He's coming off a sluggish performance at Colorado; then again, lots of pitchers struggle at Coors field. Prior to that, Snell had back-to-back quality starts vs SF and LAD. We'll look for him and the respectable SD bullpen to deliver. Mets counter with Chris Bassitt. He is entering tonight coming off 5 straight quality starts; however, prior to that on June 8th, he was rocked for 7 ER in just 3 1/3 innings by the Padres. Padres are 19-9 vs starters with a WHIP less than 1.15, and control a 4-1 run in this series. San Diego the call. |
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07-22-22 | Astros v. Mariners +114 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 3 m | Show | |
Houston/Seattle 10:10: Mariners on a 14-0 run and tonight can tie their franchise record of 15 straight wins set back in 2001. We'll give them the nod here. Seattle has given Urquidy problems (1-3 6.25 ERA in 7 appearances) including this season (0-3) and he couldn't make it to the 5th inning in any of the starts. On the other hand, Seattle's Gonzales has turned in 3 quality starts vs Houston going 6 or more innings while allowing 3 or fewer runs. What's more, the Seattle pitching over the last 25 games has been lights out. Starters are 12-3 with a 3.15 ERA. And the the bullpen sports a 1.49 ERA holding batters to just a .167 BA. Astros 2-6 in Seattle and we're jumping on Seattle here. |
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07-22-22 | Angels +132 v. Braves | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Angels/Braves 7:20: Value with blistering hot Ohtani who sports a 9-4 record with a 2.38 ERA including a 6-0 run with a miniscule 0.45 ERA over that span. Braves reliant on the long ball (2nd highest HR total in league) should have a hard time with Ohtani; after all, he hasn't given up a HR in nearly 40 innings of work. On the other hand, 38-year-old Morton was starting to heat up when he ran into the Mets prior to the All-Star break. He was lit up for 5 runs in 5 innings. Also to note: Braves are just 6-13 in their last 19 vs starters with a WHIP less than 1.15. Angels the call. |
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07-21-22 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 6-9 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
Giants/Dodgers 10:09: Heavy "under" trends coupled with two solid pitchers in their respective roles while in a pitchers' park gives us an "under" play. Dodgers on a 6-13-3 O/U run and 14-33-4 O/U in Game 1 of a series. Giants 1-7-1 O/U in Game 1 of a series. Carolos Rodon is 1-5 O/U vs teams above .500. This series is 1-4-1 O/U in its last 6 matchups. Rodon and All-Star and consistent in allowing 2 runs or less. Mitch White, on the other hand, a pretty good righty when at home. Won't last long but has the backing of a solid bullpen. And the shuffling of the Giants lineup without SS Crawford (IL) and 3B Longoria (IL) gives way for inconsistency at plate for SF. "Under" the call. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Celtics lost composure in Game 5 with turnovers and meltdowns (Smart) and the Warriors capitalized on it late to secure the win. Look for Boston to bounce back here; after all, they're 13-3 ATS off a SU loss, 8-2 ATS on 2 days rest. And they've been money on Thursdays at 5-0 ATS. Golden State just 6-13-2 ATS in the last 21 in this series and 1-3-1 ATS in Boston. Warriors won their playoff road game already but tough to follow up at this tough venue. We'll look for Boston to stay alive tonight. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics OVER 210 | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show | |
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Two well-disciplined top 3 defenses been clamping down and the refs have been letting them play; as a result, the 'under' is popping. Tonight, got a line (210) that's dropped in our range and we're going "over". This is the lowest total in this series over the past decade! We'll look for better shooting by Boston and Curry, who rarely has back-to-back bad games, should significantly add to the total. Interesting side bit: Warriors and the Celtics on Thursday are a combined 15-1-1 O/U. "Over" it is. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics +4 v. Warriors | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Boston/Golden State 9:00: Successfully had Golden State (+4) and the Under (213') on Friday to go 5-1 overall in sides and totals in this NBA Championship. Go back on Boston here. Celtics play well on the road as a dog (9-2-1 ATS) and covered 9 of the last 11 at Golden State. Boston is emphasizing rebounding for tonight; after all, when they win the boards, they're 2-0 vs the Warriors. When they lose the rebounding battle, they're 0-2 vs them. They've had a few days rest and that's important for veterans like Horford. Boston 8-1-2 ATS on 2 days rest. Moreover, they play well on Mondays (4-0 ATS) and they're strong off losses at 13-6 ATS. Golden State, however, just 3-8 ATS off a SU win. Boston not intimidated at this venue and we're taking the points. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors +4 v. Celtics | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Warriors have won at least one road playoff game in 26 consecutive series, the longest streak in the NBA. Tonight, GS should steal one here; after all, they're 4-0 ATS off a SU loss, 4-1 ATS on 1 day rest and 10-2 ATS on Fridays. On the other hand, Boston a mere 1-4 ATS off 10+ point win and just 2-8 ATS on Fridays. Curry (foot) should be good to go. Warriors the call. |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: This series has been softly called by the referees relative to other playoff series. The refs are letting them play. Both teams are defensively stout and make good adjustments. Warriors are 2-6 O/U off a SU loss, 1-4 O/U in their last 5 dog roles, and 1-4 O/U off a SU loss of 10+. This series is 4-12 O/U and 3-7 O/U in Boston. "Under" the call. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors +3.5 v. Celtics | 100-116 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 58 m | Show | |
Warriors/Celtics 9:00: Realize Celtics are hot off SU losses and have gotten the best of Golden State (5-1-1 ATS) in recent times; however, Boston has been mediocre ATS at home in the playoffs as their 4-5 ATS mark indicates. If Golden State is going to take one in Boston, it should come here; after all, they sport a strong 5-1 ATS mark off a SU win of 10+ and have won at least one road game in each of their last 26 playoff series since 2013! Look for the Warriors to steal one here. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors UNDER 215.5 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show | |
06-02-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Warriors | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show | |
Celtics/Warriors 9:00: At first glance, seems Warriors should be 5-point favorites tonight; after all, the well-stocked explosive weaponry is capable of lighting it up on any team at any time on this floor; however, Boston has given Golden State some trouble recently, including the 110-88 beating at the Chase Center on March 16th. Curry struggled in that game vs Smart before leaving with an injury. Boston was also stronger in the paint. Tatum, Brown and Smart are currently at their best and a healthy Williams III is giving Boston that added force in the paint to help out Horford. Golden State has inexplicably been sluggish on Thursdays at 18-39 ATS while Boston sports a 4-0 ATS mark on this day. Boston is a dangerous road team at 20-5-1 ATS including 8-1 ATS as a road dog. They're physical, well-disciplined defensively, and sport an 8-1 ATS mark at Golden State. With that said, value with the Celtics tonight. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat +2.5 | 100-96 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
Celtics/Heat 8:30: Heat have recaptured the momentum in this series. And should have Herro (groin) put some minutes in. As I mentioned in Game 6 analysis, Butler would come back strong, and he did. Tonight, like Miami to stay competitive on their home floor. Miami's covered 9 of their last 12 on this floor. Heat the call. |
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05-29-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 195.5 | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Celtics/Heat 8:30: These teams are very good defensively, but series sports an 11-5 O/U ledger. This total has been dropped down sharply and we're going "over". Celtics 8-3-1 O/U as road chalk. And Heat 8-2 O/U in Conference Finals. "Over" the call. |
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05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Usually big-time players step up their game off sub-par games. Jimmy Butler didn't play well in Game 5 so we'll look for him to have a good game in Boston, where he's played well; as a matter of fact, Miami sports an 11-4 ATS mark at Boston. The Heat sport an impressive 5-2 ATS mark off a SU loss and 19-9 ATS as a dog. Herro (groin), after missing last 2 games, should add the extra needed depth for the Heat to stay competitive this time down the stretch. Miami the call. |
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05-26-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -6.5 | 110-120 | Win | 100 | 21 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-25-22 | Celtics v. Heat +1.5 | 93-80 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-22-22 | Warriors v. Mavs -2.5 | 109-100 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-21-22 | Heat +6.5 v. Celtics | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
Heat/Celtics 8:30: Back on Miami here. As anticipated in Game 2, Boston came out firing with Smart back in the lineup while Tatum was expected to go off after that disastrous 3rd quarter, he experienced in Game 1. Tonight, however, look for Spoelstra to make the right adjustments. Butler did a bit too much in Game 2. Need Herro to step up his game and now that Tucker (questionable) is out, someone else will have to turn it up a notch on Miami. They have the depth to do it. Heat a strong 6-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home and a sweet 10-3 ATS at Boston. Miami the call. |
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05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics OVER 207.5 | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 19 h 33 m | Show | |
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 13 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Warriors 9:00: Mavericks had some good looks at the basket in Game 1, but the ball wasn't going down; tonight, we'll look for the Mavericks to ring them up. Mavericks 38-16 ATS off a SU loss, and 13-4 ATS after allowing 100 points previously. We'll look for Kidd to make the needed adjustments. Brunson and Bullock should be able to play better, and pretty confident Doncic's game will improve dramatically from Game 1. Mavericks are 6-2 ATS on 1 day rest and covered 11 of last 15 vs Golden State. Dallas is 6-2 ATS at Golden State. Warriors just 3-8 ATS on 1 day rest and 2-6 ATS as chalk. Also, they're 1-5 ATS off SU win. Dallas the call. |
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05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Celtics/Heat 8:30: Celtics played a great 1st half in Game 1. Williams III was big trouble for Miami early as he worked his way back from injury. But the third quarter malaise culminating in a 20-5 Miami 3rd quarter run put the Celtics away. Jason Tatum, who had a strong first half, got lazy in the 3rd quarter and shoulders the blame. He's a big-time player and should show up tonight. He'll have Smart (knee) back in the lineup to supply the needed sustainable energy. Look for the Celtics to make the needed adjustments on Butler. Celtics have responded well off losses and on the road throughout the season/playoffs. Grab the points. |
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05-18-22 | Mavs +5 v. Warriors | 87-112 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 60 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Warriors 9:00: Mavericks had the luxury, unlike Boston, of having an extra rest day off their Game 7. Kidd had a chance to diagnose the Warriors' offense and institute a defensive plan. Mavericks' defense was stupendous in Game 7 vs Phoenix and will surely be up for the challenge with all the explosive weapons Golden State possesses. On the other end of the floor, Doncic got help at the right time as Dinwiddie came alive in the last two games contributing 15 and 30, respectively. When he's on, Dallas offense runs smooth to help out Doncic and Brunson. We'll grab the points. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
Celtics/Heat 8:45: Celtics have a quick turnover time. They're coming off emotional Game 7 win Sunday. Marcus Smart, their energy force on both sides of the floor, has a sprained foot. They do get back Williams III (left knee) but limited minutes. Meanwhile, Heat hasn't been on the floor since last Thursday and well rested. They're deep and dangerous despite Lowry (hamstring) laboring. Edge to Miami which is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home favorite roles. |
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05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 203.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
Celtics/Heat 8:45: The total for this series is set at its lowest in years. This series has gone 7-3 O/U in its last 10 meetings. Miami had just two poor playoff shooting performances in its last 10 post-season games. They've eclipsed 100 in 8 of last 10. As for Boston, they just had 1 poor playoff scoring performance - May 1st at home vs Milwaukee - in their last 10 playoff outings. Both teams are shooting well and have electric big game players - Tatum for Boston and Butler for Miami - who are stepping up their game and getting the needed bench help. Their defenses are solid but their offensive execution a bit better. These teams are a combined 8-0 O/U in Conference Final games and we're staying "over". |
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05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Suns 8:00: Home series all the way as the home team a perfect 6-0 ATS. Won't fight that trend here. Booker is back up to speed and Chris Paul usually takes over when the lights shine the brightest. Suns 4-0 ATS in their last 4 as home favorites. Suns the call. |
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05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Bucks/Celtics 3:30: Visiting team in this series is 5-1 ATS. Tatum and Smart carried the Celtics to victory in Game 6. Look for the heart of a champion to emerge from the Bucks tonight. Giannis remains a consistent force in the playoffs and needs a little more help. Portis and Connaughton have stepped up their game in the void of Middleton (out). Need Lopez and Allen to contribute. Look for Budenholzer to make the right adjustments here. Bucks 7-2-1 ATS off a SU loss. Milwaukee the call. |
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05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Warriors 10:00: Wednesday was an absolute embarrassment for the Warriors. Look for Golden State to turn the tables on their comfortable confines. Golden State prides themselves on defense and adjustments will surely be made. Offensively, much better shot selection is most likely to happen. |
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05-13-22 | Celtics v. Bucks -1.5 | 108-95 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Celtics/Bucks 7:30: Bucks showed the heart of a champion late in Game 5 at Boston. Giannis was his usual All-NBA self, Connaughton put in quality minutes, Portis was clutch, and Holiday stepped up his game big time including his amazing defensive play on Smart. Celtics are formidable foes, but Bucks have a slightly deeper bench despite the loss of Middleton. Boston's Williams III loss hurts depth. Horford doing an amazing job but Giannis young legs really tough to stop down stretch in 4th. Milwaukee finishes. |
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05-12-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 86-113 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-11-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Bucks/Celtics 7:00: In this playoff series at Boston, both games did not reach 200 points; as a matter of fact, 5 of the last 7 in this series at Boston went "under". Both coaching staffs are well versed on defense and know their roles despite the lineup changes. "Under' the call. |
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05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns OVER 213 | 80-110 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Suns 10:00: Both home games for the Suns in this series went "over". In Dallas, both went "under". We'll go back to the "over" here. Lines-makers adjusted the total down after those two lower scoring games in Dallas. Look for the Suns to turn it up a notch or two tonight. Unlikely Chris Paul will foul out with just 5 points like Game 4. Suns are 11-3 O/U as playoff chalk. Mavs should match the pace. Mavericks 7-2 O/U road and 4-1 O/U as a road dog. "Over" the call. |
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05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show | |
76ers/Heat 7:30: In Game 4, Heat couldn't hit the ocean from 3-point land (20%). We'll look for the Heat to be a much better shooting team on their home floor tonight. Heat 7-1 ATS as home chalk while the 76ers struggle as a road dog at 1-4 ATS. And Philadelphia just 1-6-1 ATS at Miami. Miami the call. |
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05-09-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -10 | 98-101 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Warriors 10:00: Major uphill battle for Grizzlies without their playmaker Morant (knee) who averages 27.4 PPG. Warriors just too deep and talented. |
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05-09-22 | Celtics +1 v. Bucks | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |
Boston/Milwaukee 7:30: Celtics have had enough time to learn how to exploit Milwaukee's loss of Middleton. Almost got there in Game 3. Tonight, we'll look for them to close it out. |
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05-08-22 | Heat +2 v. 76ers | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
Heat/76ers 8:00: 76ers threw a curveball a few hours before Game 3 by clearing Embiid. Heat had not prepared for the dominant big man; consequently, his presence helped ignite an inspired 76ers team. 76ers were fined by the NBA for the slick move. Tonight, Miami will be well prepared for Embiid. As for Miami, Lowry played in Game 3 but was ineffective (0 points). We'll look for a better game from him here as he establishes his rhythm. Look for Spoelstra to push the right buttons tonight. Heat 7-3-1 ATS in this series, 13-6-1 ATS off a SU loss. Miami the call. |