Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-22-22 | Rutgers v. Minnesota -1.5 | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Toledo +5 v. Ohio | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Toledo/Ohio 6:00: The class of the MAC meet tonight. Value with the Rockets which sport a sweet 12-4-1 ATS mark for the season. Coach Massey has the talent to hang with the lead dog of the MAC. Toledo has 4 starters who average double digits and can hang with most mid-major conference teams. Toledo is a better defensive team and rebounding team. No question, Ohio U can light it up, but Toledo is more than capable of hanging around. Rockets 6-1 ATS on Fridays and covered 6 of last 7 road tilts. The road team in this series is 8-2 ATS and the dog is 7-2 ATS. Rockets the call. |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Toledo v. Ohio OVER 146.5 | 87-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show | |
Toledo/Ohio 6:00: Both of these teams can light up the scoreboard and this game should continue to be high scoring in the series; after all, the last 3 sported totals of 157, 173 and 167, respectively. Rockets are 10-3 O/U on the road vs a team with a home winning % above .600. Bobcats 19-7 O/U in their last 26 at home vs teams with a road wining % above .600. We'll go "over" |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Georgetown +11.5 v. Providence | 75-83 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
Georgetown/Providence 5:00: Providence has a solid team this year under Cooley with 4 grad transfers and lots of talent; however, they've been idle since January 8th after 3 straight postponements. Meanwhile, Georgetown had their long layoff last month with before dropping 3 straight games. They're on an 0-4 SU/ATS slide and in a desperation mode. Ewing has some talent including a few 3 point marksmen including Donald Carey (47.3% from treyland) who will be back tonight. He missed the last 3 games. Carey can surely help take pressure off Harris, Rice and add to free up leading scorer Mohammed. Dog in this series is 9-3 ATS and we got some value with the Hoyas as the Friars attempt to get their legs back and try to restart after a red-hot run. Georgetown the call. |
|||||||
01-19-22 | TCU +5.5 v. Oklahoma State | 56-57 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
TCU/Oklahoma State 8:00: Okie State coming off huge win over #5 Baylor. I'm going to look for a letdown here vs a more the more TCU Horned Frogs. TCU is coming off a big win themselves over a strong Oklahoma team. TCU, the more consistent team, on a 6-1 ATS tear. Horned Frogs' HC Dixon has a strong resume as a winner in the regular season going back to his days at Pittsburgh. His teams were strong on the boards and very good defensively. This TCU team resembles those old Pittsburgh teams. Okie State has some big wins but not consistent and just 1-6 ATS on Wednesdays, 1-4 ATS at home. With TCU on the road vs teams with a home winning % above .600, we'll take the points with TCU. |
|||||||
01-18-22 | North Carolina v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Baylor v. West Virginia +6.5 | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
Baylor/West Virginia 5:00: Both teams coming off losses. Baylor in a bit more decline off two straight home losses. The #6 ranked Bears, which play really well on the road, earned the right to be a road favorite but a bit overvalued here considering the circumstances. WV sports a perfect 10-0 SU mark at their strong home venue albeit not a strong schedule. However, WV has held its own in this series the last few years on its home floor winning outright March 7, 2020 and taking Baylor to OT on March 2, 2021. The Mounties still have a big piece of that team in place with McNeil, Bridges and Sherman. They no longer have McBride and Culver but Huggins added Malik Curry to fill the void. The Bears, however, came out of their loss to Okie State banged up a bit with Akinjo (glute) and F Sochon (ankle) questionable. WV is aggressive defensively on their home floor and will surely target Flagler who made a few key turnover errors late vs Oklahoma State. WV, 5-1 ATS off an ATS loss, will be fired up to gain ground in the Big 12 and boost resume for Big Dance with a huge win opportunity over the #5 team in the nation which is vulnerable here. Bears just 3-7 ATS off a SU loss and 1-4 ATS on Tuesdays. West Virginia the call. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 11-34 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 19 m | Show |
Cardinals/Rams 8:15: Cardinals very capable of pulling the upset here. Rams' overrated defense got more bad news late in the week with two key secondary components FS Taylor Rapp and SS Jordan Fuller out. They had to bring up 37 year old Eric Weddle to help fill the void. Rams struggled vs playoff teams this season at 2-5 SU. Stafford (0-3 SU in playoffs) was on fire though the first 8 games (310 YPG/22-4 TD/INT) going 7-1 SU but production fizzled in the last 9 (268 YPG/19 TD/13 INT) with a 5-4 record. Road team got the best of this series this season. And Cardinals are at their best on the road at 8-1 SU. RB James Connor should be good to go and defensively, the addition of JJ Watt (off IR) will be an added boost. Cards 18-6-3 ATS as a road dog. Rams don't play the favorite role well at 3-7 ATS and just 1-4 ATS as a playoff favorite. Cardinals the call. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Purdue v. Illinois -1.5 | 96-88 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 59 m | Show | |
Purdue/Illinois Noon: Purdue was red hot early in the season but has cooled down recently on a 2-7 ATS slide including losing outright at Rutgers and at home to Wisconsin. Sure Boilermakers' Williams and Edey are beasts inside and Stefanovic and Ivey are great on the perimeter; however, Illinois' Cockburn a major problem for teams in the low post and the Fighting Illini have a host of dangerous perimeter shooters (Plummer, Frasier, Grandison). I do like Illinois defensive intensity and their ability to handle the ball a bit better than their counterpart. With the home team 6-1-1 ATS in this series, we'll ride Illinois here. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Steelers +13 v. Chiefs | 21-42 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 4 m | Show | |
Steelers/Chiefs 8:15: Steelers got pummeled at KC on December 26th. They come into this one as a double-digit dog. They are professionals and surely will be motivated under seasoned post-season coach Tomblin. They have a fighting chance to cover with very thin margin for error. Roethlisberger clearly in his declining stages of mobility but can still sling it. Fortunately, his supporting cast has picked it up over the last few weeks. And another weapon added to the offense in Smith-Schuster will help. They'll need to go deep more frequently to test the KC secondary that's given up the big play more than usual this season. And KC defense has lacked the hustle over the last few weeks. Steelers' run game with RB Harris turned it up a few notches the last few weeks, which is a good sign that the Steelers' offensive line is improving. Establishing long drives and keeping Mahomes and company off the field can help immensely. When the KC offense is on the field, TJ Watt will need to be at his best to force errant throws. We'll look for the Steelers to cover the big number. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | 49ers +3 v. Cowboys | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
49ers/Cowboys 4:30: Dangerous matchup for the Cowboys. Cowboys went down the stretch facing only one playoff contender (Philadelphia rested starters) losing to Arizona at home. On the other hand, SF went on a sweet 7-2 ATS run down the stretch including an impressive double-digit comeback win in OT at Los Angeles. SF QB Garoppolo has a wealth of weaponry to go to with versatile Deebo Samuel, and throw in TE Kittle, WR Aiyuk and RB Mitchell. I'll look for HC Shanahan to outwit his old boss - Dan Quinn - who is now the DC of Dallas. Dallas has the explosive offense but clock management a concern in close games. And SF has the disruptive defensive front -(Bosa and Armstead) to give Prescott trouble. SF has a good run stop unit with a healthy MLB Warner and a respectable secondary. 49ers play the dog role well covering 5 of last 6 in that role. SF the call. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Eagles +9.5 v. Bucs | 15-31 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 22 m | Show | |
Eagles/Bucs 1:00: Eagles not the team they were back in Week 6 when they were beaten 28-22 by Tampa Bay. Back then, they didn't have an identity where they were going offensively. That game was a turning point for the coaching staff. They played to their strength - QB Hurts' legs and integrated zone read and gap QB power schemes to their offense. Hurts and RB Sanders flourished as they became the #1 run offense in the NFL. Moreover, the RPO (run, pass option) game opened up to utilize #1 draft pick Devonta Smith and TE Goedert. Sunday, with inclement weather expected in Tampa, the Eagles should lean on their productive clock eating offense to gain yardage and eat clock. Brady, down a few weapons - Fournette (IR), Antonio Brown (cut), and Godwin (IR), will have to lean on Gronkowski and Evans for big plays. That's a bit easier to manage for a mediocre Philadelphia defense. On the other side of the ball, the Buc's do sport the #3 rush defense but did allow eight 100-yard games this season compared to just 4 last season. And keep in mind that Eagles All-Pro T Lane Johnson and go-to TE Goedert didn't play in the first matchup. Eagles, 10-1 ATS as a dog, 4-1 ATS off a SU loss. TB 1-5 ATS as a playoff favorite. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Patriots +5 v. Bills | Top | 17-47 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills healthier going into this one with almost a clean slate of healthy bodies; meanwhile, Patriots will be without LT Wynn (hip/ankle) which will require offensive line shuffling. Fortunately, this game's weather will be one of the coldest on record (2 degrees w/ 14 MPH winds) and that favors New England. First matchup in this series - December 6th - Patriots threw just 3 passes while gutting the overrated Bills' run stop unit. Surely more passes will be thrown tonight as Patriots' OC McDaniels will find the soft spots in the Bills' defense. Offensively, Bills' QB Josh Allen completed just 49% of his passes over the last 2 games and has the 2nd worst completion % among quarterbacks in freezing game temperatures. Patriots have had success in Buffalo at 7-1 ATS. Sure, Patriots coming off a bad defensive game vs Miami but sport a 24-7 ATS mark after allowing 30+ points, they're 18-6 ATS w/ revenge against conference opponents above .400. This series has gone to the road team at 19-6-2 ATS and the dog at 5-1-1 ATS. Patriots the call. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 44 | 17-47 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 42 m | Show | |
Patriots/Bills 8:15: Frigid temperatures (2 degrees/14 MPH winds) should turn this game into a ball control defensive battle similar to the December 6th slugfest. Patriots 2-8 O/U as a dog and 1-4 O/U on road as a dog. This series has gone 1-4 O/U in Buffalo. Buffalo 2-5 O/U as a home favorite. We'll look for this one to stay "under". |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Alabama v. Mississippi State -1 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders +6 v. Bengals | 19-26 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 22 m | Show | |
Raiders/Bengals 4:30: Impressive 4 game win streak got the Raiders in to the playoffs and they're not going to be a pushover. Keep in mind that in this first matchup back on November 21st, Raiders were in that game 13-16 with 5 minutes left in 4th quarter before some critical mistakes. And during Raiders 4 game run down the stretch, they were able to find ways to win those close games and that means a lot in the NFL. Bengals present a dangerous offense with QB Burrow, virtually uncoverable Chase, Higgins and Boyd; however, Cincinnati's offensive line a concern. Burrow has been sacked 51 times and faces 2 outstanding rushers in Ngakoue and Crosby (leads league in QB pressures). And although Raiders' QB Carr doesn't get the favorable reviews that other QBs do, he makes big throws in key stretches of games. He's equipped with healthy weaponry now that TE Waller is back, along with Renfro and emerging WR Jones. Raiders' Jacobs doing a solid job running the rock and comforting to know Las Vegas is 7-0 ATS after rushing for 150+ yards. Raiders are a dangerous road dog at 6-2 ATS. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Akron +1.5 v. Kent State | 55-67 | Loss | -108 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Akron/Kent State 8:00: Zips on a pretty good 6-2 ATS run since November 24th. Defensively, they're 41st in the nation allowing 62.5 PPG. And remember, Zips took Ohio State to the buzzer in Columbus. This game is a 25-minute bus ride to Franklin Township against their hated rival. Kent State, 1-6 ATS slide, sports a sluggish offense ranked 245th in the nation. The Zips are simply a better team offensively, on the boards and defensively. Zips getting consistently great work from F Ali Ali who's been strong on the boards and a big boost offensively. Zips have won 3 straight in this series and I expect a 4th tonight. Akron the call. |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin -2.5 | 68-78 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
Ohio State/Wisconsin 7:00: Big revenge game for Wisconsin. Back on December 11th, the Buckeyes throttled the Badgers 73-55 in Ohio. Badgers couldn't stop 6'7" F Liddell who dropped 28 on them. Badgers haven't lost since, going on a 6-0 SU/3-2 ATS run. On paper, Badgers' numbers don't look good but they're great at making needed adjustments in matchups; for example, locked down Indiana, beat Purdue -class of the Big 10- on the road as Jonathan Davis went off for 37, and outscored the prolific offensive machine of Iowa 87-78 with 5 Badgers scoring double digits. The Badgers are coming off winning and covering at Maryland while the Buckeyes are coming off a satisfying win over Northwestern. Buckeyes 2-5 ATS off SU win and 0-4 ATS on Thursdays. With the favorite at 14-6 ATS in this series, we'll look for the rolling, vengeful Badgers to deliver on their strong home floor. |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Minnesota v. Michigan State -12.5 | 69-71 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Miami-FL +6.5 v. Florida State | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
Miami-Fla/Florida State 8:00: Miami Florida stewing over lack of respect after Saturday's upset on the road over then #2 Duke. Larranaga finally has a solid team of shooters and a great facilitator in Charlie Moore. Meanwhile, Florida State handed Louisville its first ACC loss. Florida State going into this one knowing they've knocked off Miami-Florida seven straight times. Florida State 0-4 ATS off SU wins this year. I don't see Miami-Florida with a letdown for they're hungry to beat their intra-state rival after a long drought. Look for Final-4 Coach Larranaga to keep his boys focused. Canes 7-3 ATS on the road vs a home team with a winning % above .600. Miami U the call. |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
Georgia/Alabama 8:00: Kirby Smart assembled his best team yet and he's overdue to finally beat his mentor -Saban. In the SEC Championship, Alabama QB Bryce Young was able to set his feet and make amazing throws in tight windows of a step slow Georgia defense. Smart will surely make the needed adjustments with his amazing versatile athletes of Dean and Travon Walker while not tiring out mammoth DL Jordan Davis - like he was on December 4th. The good news for Georgia and a key loss for Alabama is 1000+ receiving yard WR John Meche III (out). He was a key part in that game (6 receptions for 97 yards and a TD) before his injury. Now the Bulldogs' secondary can focus their attention on Alabama superstar receiver Jameson Williams. The 'Dogs can either roll coverage to him, bracket him or double him leaving Bryce Young without a proven secondary downfield threat. On the offensive side of the ball, Bulldogs will establish heavy doses of RB Zamir White behind their dominant offensive line coupled with play action to superstar TE Brock Bowers - that no defense has found an answer for. QB Stetson Bennett has progressively gotten better after adversity and we'll look for his moment of glory to arrive as a solid game manager. Interesting stat is Georgia is a sweet 14-0-1 ATS as a favorite of less than 13 points with revenge. We'll look for Kirby Smart to finally get the best of Saban. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders +3 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 17 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Raiders have been through a lot this season but are finding ways to win down the stretch. That's quite unusual for a team that usually packs it in this time of year. Raiders are finding ways to overcome adversity while areas of their game continue to improve. The offensive line, which has been shuffled around all season, is starting to gel. Defensively, Gus Bradley's unit has given up 20 or less in 4 of the last 5 games. And Derek Carr keeps hanging in their to make plays down the stretch. Carr has extra incentive today. After the Chargers' 28-14 win on October 4th, their DE Bosa spouted off about Derek Carr, "Great dude, great player...but we know once you get pressure on him, he kind of shuts down." Carr remembers that and surely will do everything to atone for his underachieving performance that day. He should have TE Darren Waller (knee) available today. And RB Jacobs (ribs) should be good to go. After all, they know there is no tomorrow if they lose. Chargers are the trendy choice here but sport an 0-7 ATS mark as a division favorite off a double-digit SU win. Dog in this series is 18-7 ATS and we'll roll with the vengeful Raiders. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Patriots -6 v. Dolphins | 24-33 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
Patriots/Dolphins 4:25: Dolphins beat the Patriots in Week 1 at New England 17-16. No coach is better in same season revenge than Bill Belichick. He's 18-4 ATS with revenge vs .400 or greater conference opponents; moreover, 15-2 ATS with division revenge off a non-division game. To narrow it down, he's 14-2 ATS in the final two weeks of the season with revenge of a division opponent. Patriots have won 8 of the last 9 at Miami and should deliver here; after all, Patriots can still win the AFC East with a win and if Buffalo loses to the Jets today. We'll look for the Patriots to keep it rolling here. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Seahawks +5.5 v. Cardinals | 38-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Cardinals 4:25: Cardinals can still win the NFC West with a win and getting help from SF. The Seahawks are simply playing out the season. I won't count the Seahawks out in this one. Seattle, coming off a blowout win at home vs Detroit, determined to finish season strong. They do have a few defenders out, including LB Wagner, RDT Woods and SS Neal. Cardinals are not without their share of injuries either. Cards will be without LDE Phillips, RCB Wilson. And offensively, Cardinals thin at RB with Connor (heel) and Edmunds (ankle) limited in practice this week. Russell Wilson starting to get back in rhythm and the run game was cooking last week with Penny (170 yards). We'll look for Seattle to keep this competitive. Pete Carroll a sweet 12-4 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. Arizona just 3-4 SU at home including 0-4 SU slide there. Moreover, a money burning 9-24 ATS as a home favorite. Seattle the call. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Titans/Texans 1:00: Titans should be locked in here; after all, at stake is a first-round bye. Titans earlier in the year played down to their competition including dropping the first meeting in this series in Week 11 at home 22-13. In that game, the Titans out-yarded the Texans 420-190 but Tannehill threw 4 INTs! Now that the Titans' offensive line is much healthier and Julio Jones and A.J. Brown can be on the field at the same time, Titans should keep the offensive machine working. RB Foreman will get the nod again while Derrick Henry gets ready for playoffs. But no alarm, the mending Titans' offensive line paved the way against a pretty good run stop unit of Miami last week for 132 yards. Texans' run stop unit is worst in the NFL. On the flip side, there is no DeShawn Watson who scared the Titans' last year or even Tyrod Taylor who directed the win in Week 11. Davis Mills, who may be a decent QB down the line, will get the nod. He's struggling with a 32.2 QBR - 29th in the league; he doesn't have a run game (32nd in NFL) to help him out and the Titans' revamped defense is getting after the QB, ball hawking the secondary and stopping the run now. Titans 4-0 ATS after running for 150+ and they're 4-0 ATS after scoring more than 30+. Texans 1-4 ATS off SU loss of 14+. Titans the call. |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | 28-24 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Broncos 4:30: I hit with the "under" on December 5th in this series at KC. Today, we'll stay "under" again. Line value added to "under" with both teams coming off poor defensive performances. For the Broncos, they gave up a rare 101-yard kickoff return and a 45 yard TD pass to Mike Williams. That's rare for a Vic Fangio coached program against a division rival. Meanwhile, KC got smoked by the speedy receivers of Cincinnati despite tight coverage. Today, KC secondary matches much better against the Denver receiving corps and surely Drew Lock is no Joe Burrow. Denver defense will have some tough sledding without CB Patrick Surtain II (out); nevertheless, Denver defense gives but is tough to break (#3 scoring defense). Fangio most likely will sit in a Cover 2 shell and force KC to run the football with Edwards-Helaire still out. Broncos are 0-6 O/U after allowing 30+ points and 1-5 O/U in their last 6 dog roles. Moreover, they're 5-20 O/U when the O/U line is set at 45 or over. With Fangio at 0-6 O/U w/ revenge vs division, "Under" is the call. |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -7.5 | 68-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Kansas State/West Virginia 2:00: K State struggling with Covid off 2 straight losses and still not at full strength including their bench leader - Webber (out). Jermaine Henderson fills in vs an angry Bob Huggins who's coming off a loss to Texas on the first and then a postponement vs TCU. Fortunately for WV, they're back at full strength including go-to-guy Taz Sherman. WV strong on their home floor should deliver the goods and then some vs a shell team of K-State. |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Texas -3.5 v. Oklahoma State | 51-64 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 43 m | Show | |
Texas/Oklahoma State 2:00: Didn't take long for Chris Beard to steer Texas on to the winning road. Already 2-0 in conference play and like their chances here. Okie State, which is no longer equipped with Cade Cunningham (NBA), suffered their 4th home loss on Tuesday. Like the poise the Longhorns have in their backcourt with Carr and Ramey. They're operating at a +7 turnover margin and road savvy. Texas delivers. |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Virginia +6 v. North Carolina | 58-74 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
Virginia/North Carolina 1:00: Virginia has owned North Carolina - winning and covering seven straight. I still find value in Virginia today. North Carolina's first year HC Hubert Davis has talent but won't have 6'11" Garcia (10 PPG) and versatile 6'9" Manek (12.4 PPG) is a game time decision. The Tar Heels couldn't close out ND on the 5th and now going to lay 6 points to a team they haven't beaten since February 2017. Meanwhile, Tony Bennett's bunch is coming off 2 impressive conference road wins over Syracuse and Clemson. Moreover, they've had an extra day of prep. Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a home win % above .700. Cavaliers have a veteran group led by Gardner and Franklin who are part of a group that can slow the Tar Heels down and work their methodical attack successfully. Take the points with the Cavaliers. |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Marquette -2 v. Georgetown | 92-64 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
Marquette/Georgetown 6:30: Georgetown has been idle for nearly 3 weeks due to Covid issues. Wednesday, was their first full practice in more than 2 weeks. Going to be hard to establish a rhythm and keep up with the frenetic pace that Shaka Smart will employ with his Golden Eagles. Marquette is coming off a blowout of Providence on Tuesday. Smart's blend of transfer talent Morsell (MD), Kuath (OK) and PG Kolek (George Mason) appear to be establishing a rhythm offensively. And their big man - Justin Lewis - adds a strong dimension to their inside game. GT does have some 3 point marksmen in Rice, Carey and dangerous Mohammed but Smart surely will shift defensive pressure to the perimeter. Eagles 4-1 ATS on the road vs home team with a home win % above .600. And they're 6-2 ATS on Fridays. Marquette, under Wojciechowski, had some success at Georgetown and under the new leadership of Smart, the Golden Eagles should deliver tonight. |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Ohio State v. Indiana -2 | 51-67 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
OSU/Indiana 7:00: Hoosiers were horrendous at Penn State on Sunday where they were a brick laying 4 of 17 from 3-point range, out-boarded yet still managed a narrow 3-point loss. Hoosiers now return home where they're 9-0. Indiana returned home successfully with a win in each of their last 2 road defeats this season. They're taking on an OSU team struggling defensively (198th nationally). Buckeyes had trouble getting their legs back at lightweight Nebraska where they needed OT to pull off a win. Prior to that, OSU was on an extended break (Dec 11th) after Covid issues occurred. We'll give the edge to the hungry Hoosiers here. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS. Indiana the call. |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -2.5 | 47-51 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow..... |
|||||||
01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -7 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
LSU/Kansas State 9:00: Long list of opt outs on the LSU game. They're coming off two big wins under their interim coach while Kelly waits in the wings. But question their motivation here. They'll be without star LB Clark and DL Farrell Jr.. Consequently, K State will focus on pounding the football with their 320 lb average offensive line to free up 1200+ rusher Deuce Vaughn. And QB Skylar Thompson (69% completions) (leg) is good to go. Meanwhile, LSU is undecided on QB with transfer Max Johnson opting out. They have unproven QBs Nussmeier, Faulk and Kirklin unsettled on. Most likely lean on RB Kiner who is replacing opt out 1000+ rusher Davis-Price. Kansas State equipped with playmakers including DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah who has 11 sacks and 14 1/2 TFLs. Should see K State wear down the Tigers similar to what Kentucky did to them earlier in the season. K State the call. |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Browns +2.5 v. Steelers | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
Browns/Steelers 8:15: Browns eliminated from playoffs by virtue of LA Chargers winning Sunday. Steelers are holding on for their dear lives to land a playoff spot but must win out and get some outside help next week; as a result of the conclusion of today, this line bumped around. Cleveland opened as a small favorite but as of Sunday evening became a dog. Regardless of the bad news for Cleveland, this is a longtime rivalry and they would like nothing more than to end Pittsburgh's playoff hopes on Monday. Therefore, I see Cleveland showing up to play some football. They have the better offensive line/run game even without Conklin (IR). Chubb ran through a decent Packers' defense last week for 126 yards; moreover, Hunt (ankle) should be back and throw in D'Ernest Johnson (averaging 5.7 YPC), you got a three headed monster thrashing through a poor Steelers' run-stop-unit that gives up 142.7 YPG (31st in NFL). And Mayfield, who's had a poor year, has most of his receiving targets available. On the other hand, Steelers' run game never got on track this year (87.6 YPG) as Najee Harris has to work for every 3 YPC and a cloud of rubber chips he can muster. And sad to say, Big Ben no longer has that ability to move around the pocket so well, process and react the way he did for so many years. Browns' secondary is thin but I don't believe the old magic of Ben will resurface tonight against a formidable Browns' pass rush with Garrett and Clowney healthy. Browns the call. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Giants v. Bears UNDER 36.5 | 3-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
Giants/Bears 1:00: Two offenses ranking in the bottom tier of the league with backup QBs. Dalton should get the start for the Bears. While the Giants will share time with either Fromm or Glennon. If that's not ugly enough, Toney and Slayton are out, their starting center (Price) is out, and Freddie Kitchens is once again calling the plays. No wonder RB Barkley (ankle) may want to sit this one out. With both defenses respectable and keeping them in games, scoring will be at a premium. And throw in the 28 degree weather with high winds and the low set total doesn't look that low after all. Bears 1-6 O/U in their last 7 home favorite roles and the Giants are 6-19 O/U run. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Raiders +8.5 v. Colts | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
Raiders/Colts 1:00: Raiders usually slip slide away with the December weather but are defying logic this time around as they control their own destiny with a legitimate shot for the playoffs if they win out. They're off two wins and we're back on them again today. The trendy pick is Indianapolis which is coming off a monster win Christmas Day at Arizona. But Indy not the greatest in the role back at home off back-to-back SU/ATS wins where they're 0-7 ATS. Sure, they're getting back lots of bodies from the Covid list, including - most likely Wentz. And the line is inflated because of it. Raiders' defense impressive last week holding Denver to 18 yards rushing and 150 total yards. And the Raiders' run game looked solid last week as well with Jacobs (129 yards/ 4.8 YPC). The Raiders' offense could surely use TE Waller (Covid/Knee) but Moreau is doing a decent job and Carr is making the best of who he has at his disposal. We'll look for the Raiders to stick around; after all, they're 9-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. In the spirit of John Madden - Go Raiders! |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals +4 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Bengals 1:00: Bengals are one win away from winning the AFC North while the Chiefs are looking for that First Round Bye. Always a concern with the Bengals off two straight wins - a spot that has been shaky for a few years, but we've got Cincinnati at home as a dog and they're 9-1 ATS as a dog off a SU win of 14+. And the Bengals are in great hands with Joe Burrow who is maturing into an elite QB. His weaponry is healthy and his line is improving. Moreover, defensively, WLB Logan Wilson is back, the secondary is stepping up their game, and sack master - Hendrickson (14 sacks) is healthy. Sure, KC gets back TE Kelce but RB Edwards-Helaire is out. Chiefs now a dangerous team but a bit overvalued here considering they're just 4-9 ATS after scoring 30+ in previous game. Bengals the call. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans -3 | 3-34 | Win | 102 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Titans 1:00: Titans A.J. Brown made a huge difference last Thursday. Miami is a blitz happy team and most likely that means man coverage on Brown. Tannehill clearly a more confident QB with Brown in the lineup and Wesbrook-Ikhine is stepping up his game. And fortunately, the Titans' left side of their offensive line is back this week with LG Saffold and LT Lewan returning to protect Tannehill better and improve on the run game with Foreman and McNichols. Defensively is something to get excited over as a Titans' backer. Their sack strong line is healthy and the nine days of rest compared to Miami's 5 days, allowed their secondary to heal their wounds. Miami still has offensive woes starting with one of the worst run games in the NFL (30th). Tennesse is a sweet 6-0 ATS as a favorite after a Thursday game. Miami just 1-4 ATS following a Monday Night game. A win over the Dolphins gives Tennessee the AFC South Championship. Tennessee the call. |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Utah +4 v. Ohio State | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show | |
Utah/Ohio State 5:00: Ohio State sported the #1 offense in the nation but comes into this one a virtual shell of that regular season roster. Star opt outs include their two top receivers Wilson (1,058 yards) and Olave (936 yards), their top OL Petit-Frere. C.J. Stroud is a very good QB but only as good as his surrounding talent. He faces a tough Utah defense that gets after the QB with 3.2 sacks per game, a big time linebacker and solid secondary. And Utah is no slouch offensively with QB Cameron Rising (18 TDs/5 INTs/ 2279 yards) and a 1000+ rusher w/ 20 TDs in Tavion Thomas. OSU had its share of problems defensively this season and have a few opt outs on that side of the ball too with Haskell Garrett out. Utah HC Whittingham a strong 7-2 SU in last 9 bowl games and lead his team to a strong finish with a blowout of Oregon in PAC 12 Championship. Utah still hungry though as they are first time in the history of the program going to the Rose Bowl. OSU, on the other hand, OSU had higher aspirations (CFB playoffs) and I question their motivation. Utah the call. |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
Oklahoma State/Notre Dame 1:00: Mike Gundy posts an outstanding 7-2 ATS ledger in bowls since 2012, including 5-0 run. And this year, defense has been the strength of the team posting a Top 10 defense nationally. DC Jim Knowles is off to Ohio State in the same capacity. Oklahoma State has 4 defensive assistants and a grad assistant guiding the defense while Gundy overlooks the plan. The players know their roles and shouldn't miss a beat. On the other hand, Notre Dame opens a new era with Marcus Freeman as their head coach. Players are with him but the Irish won't have leading rusher Kyren Williams (NFL prep) or OL Josh Lugg. Oklahoma State posts nearly 4 sacks per game and should give QB Jack Coan trouble. Oklahoma State offense should have their top rusher - Warren - back after he missed the Big 12 Title game. His difference was notable in that loss to Baylor. QB Spencer Sanders doesn't have the pressure on him like season past Oklahoma State QBs. Based on personnel and bowl history, Oklahoma State has the edge and we'll jump on them here. |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Kentucky v. Iowa UNDER 44 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Iowa/Kentucky 1:00: Expect old school football with teams that like to pound the football and play great defense. Iowa offense not potent (123rd in the nation) and should be even less potent today without their 1100+ rusher Tyler Goodson who opted out (NFL prep). Iowa's QBs' Petras or Padilla don't strike fear in defenses. And Kentucky is solid defensively. Iowa counts on their defense to set them up in field position; after all, they're #1 in forcing turnovers and Kentucky is prone to turnovers. The Wildcats do, however, run the ball well. They have a 1200+ rusher in Rodriguez and an 1100+ receiver in Wan' Dale Robinson. Their other two receivers opted out. Iowa is 14th in the nation in scoring defense and rarely gives up explosive plays. We'll look for a ground and pound clock eating game with limited scoring. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Georgia v. Michigan +7.5 | Top | 34-11 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
Michigan/Georgia 7:30: Michigan coming into this one with lots of confidence after blowing out Ohio State and winning the Big 10 Championship decisively. Georgia, on the other hand, came out of the SEC Championship with a lot of uncertainty after getting blasted by Alabama. Georgia's Smart doesn't lose often but is only 1-4 ATS off a SU loss. Not convinced they're 7.5 favorites here. Michigan is very well balanced in every facet of the game. Wolverines possess an outstanding offensive line (Joe Moore Award winner) to counter the formidable defensive front of Georgia. Wolverines' run game with Haskins and Blake Corum is the best the Bulldogs face this season. And QB McNamara has been an excellent game manager who limits mistakes (only 3 INTs in 264 attempts). His numbers (2,301 yards, 14 TDs, 64% Comp) don't jump off the page but his on-field leadership is tremendous. And he has a solid receiving corps including clutch TE Erick All. As for the Bulldogs' offense, their TE Brock Bowers will surely be the focal point of the passing game and Michigan should be well prepared to counter. Georgia's QB Bennett a solid game manager but he can be rattled in big games as his 2 INT's in the Alabama game suggests. And Michigan has a solid run-stop unit that surely respects Geogia's powerful run game but has demonstrated that it can limit explosive plays (#4 in points allowed). Moreover, they can rush the passer with Hutchinson and Ojabo collecting a combined 25 sacks! With these teams matching well, I'm taking the points with the hungry underdog that finally got over the hump in the Harbaugh era and raging with confidence. |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Cincinnati +14 v. Alabama | 6-27 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
Cincinnati/Alabama 3:30: Big step up here for the Bearcats but they're ready for the big stage. This veteran team proved its worth in last year's Peach Bowl vs Georgia with a competitive 24-21 loss as an 8.5 dog. With the nucleus of that team back here, they're not going to be intimidated in this spot. Bearcats possess arguably the best secondary in the NCAA with corners Gardner and Bryant. They can sack the QB (37) and opportunistic (18 interceptions). QB Bryce Young was fabulous vs Georgia in the SEC Championship and sliced and diced Georgia's secondary. Cincinnati's defensive staff had the opportunity to break down the film and make the adjustments with their outstanding secondary personnel. This is not one of the better offensive lines of Alabama. They've given up nearly 2.7 sacks per game and the run game is 81st in the nation. Keep in mind that Bearcats' HC Fickell was part of the Ohio State defensive staff that beat the 2014 Alabama team in the Playoff Semi-Finals en-route to winning it all that season. Offensively, Bearcats can move the football with veteran signal caller Desmond Ridder (3190 yards, 30 TDs/8 INTs). And he can hurt teams with his feet (361 yards/6 TDs). And RB Jerome Ford (1242 yards/19 TDs) who transferred from Alabama is surely capable of accumulating yards behind a very good offensive line. Cincinnati 5-0 ATS as a dog and 6-0 ATS vs teams above .500. We'll take the two TDs. |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Central Michigan v. Washington State OVER 57 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
Central Michigan/Washington State Noon: Both teams present explosive offenses. Now Washington State will not have its top 2 running backs (Borghi and McIntosh) and their starting tackles; however, they've shuffled their line throughout the season and managed to put points on the board. In this instance, they face a poor secondary of Central Michigan. The Chippewas are aggressive in their blitz schemes (3.1 sacks per game) but give up explosive plays. Washington State has skill players Jordan (801 yards/9 TDs) and Harris (955 yards/7 TDs) that can torch the CM secondary. QB De Laura can sling it (23 TD/9 INTs/ 64%). And RB Nakia Watson gets his opportunity to showcase his running skills. On the other hand, CM has an explosive offense that Washington State will have trouble with. RB Lew Nicholls III ran for 1710 yards and 15 TDs and can catch the ball out of the backfield. QB Richardson has a wealth of athletes including vertical threat Pimpleton. And Washington State won't have its starting corners including Jaylen Watson (opted out NFL). Washington State 4-0 O/U as chalk, CM 10-3 O/U as a dog and 7-3 O/U vs non-conference. "Over" the call. |
|||||||
12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Michigan State | 21-31 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/MSU 7:00: No secret that both of these teams' top stars are opting out (NFL). Spartans won't have their Doak Walker Award winner Kenneth Walker III and Pittsburgh will be without Heisman Trophy finalist QB Kenny Pickett. With all facets of game considered, Pittsburgh has the edge. Panthers have a Top 10 offensive line in the nation, Biletnikoff Award WR Jordan Addison and shifty, versatile RB Abanikanda. and 6'6" TE Lucas Krull that can help out backup QB Nick Patti (12 of 14 this season). Michigan State pass defense is one of the worst in the nation - allowing 338 yards per game. On the other hand, Pittsburgh defense is one of the best run stop units in the nation (#6). Remember, Pittsburgh HC Narduzzi was a tremendous DC for Michigan State before he took over Pittsburgh's HC duties. Panthers 12-5 ATS in December, 6-1 ATS vs teams above .500 and beat Top 25 Teams in 5 of the last 6 years. Michigan State a concerning 1-8 ATS as a favorite vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Panthers the call. |
|||||||
12-30-21 | South Carolina v. North Carolina -10 | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
South Carolina/North Carolina 11:30: Hard to imagine Mack Brown losing two straight bowl games. North Carolina easily underachieved this year and Brown should have his men well prepared; after all, he has his NFL bound QB Sam Howell available and a good amount of weaponry at his disposal in the #9 offense in the nation. South Carolina played great defense this year but offensively stuck in neutral. QB Jason Brown performed mediocre with 56% completions, 8 TDs and 6 INTs. He has a pretty good RB in White and decent receivers. And NC defense is nothing to write home about. However, unlikely SC can trade points effectively with the Tar Heels. NC will score and I would be surprised if SC can slow this game down and keep the Tar Heels off the field. Tar Heels coming off a season ending loss at NC State and in an ornery mood. They're 9-4 ATS off a SU loss under Brown and should deliver here. |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Oregon/Oklahoma 9:15: Legendary Sooners' former head coach Bob Stoops steps in to coach this game and should do well holding the program together in the interim until Venerables leads them next year. On the other hand, Cristobal bailed and Ducks' assistant McClendon will lead until Dan Lanning steps in for the 2022 season. Didn't like how the Ducks finished the season losing in blowout fashion to the Utes in 2 of their final 3 games. The 38-10 burial in the PAC12 Championship was not a good indication of a team with much heart after getting stomped by the same Utes team 38-7 a few weeks earlier. Sure, the Sooners won't have 4 defensive starters for this one but have quality reserves that got plenty of reps during the season. And Ducks' QB Anthony Brown is surely no Justin Herbert. On the other hand, Oregon has its share of opt outs including pass rush specialist Thibodeaux. Sooners' QB Caleb Williams is a playmaker and he has a solid supporting cast. We'll lay the points with Oklahoma. |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Iowa State v. Clemson UNDER 44.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
Iowa State/Clemson 5:45: A matchup that looks to be lower scoring. Clemson, which never got its offense in rhythm under QB Uiagalelei (9 TD/8 INT 54.7% completions), most likely will struggle vs a the Top 10 Iowa State defense. Cyclones play 3-3-5 presents problems to most teams. They limit explosive plays and can create havoc on QBs with DE Will McDonald IV (11' sacks) leading the way. Moreover, Clemson limited in vertical threats now that E.J. Williams (Covid) and Ross (foot) are out. They do have RB Shipley (true freshman) who came on strong to establish a run game for the Tigers mid-season. They look to lean on him tonight. On the other hand, Iowa State's All-American RB Breece Hall opted out to prepare for the NFL draft and that's a big loss. He was the fuel to the Iowa State offense and QB Brock Purdy leaned on him heavily. Now Clemson's ball hawking secondary can keep their focus on TE Kolar and WR Hutchinson. Technically, Clemson is 1-7 O/U in December, 0-6 O/U vs the Big12 while Iowa State is 0-8 O/U in bowls. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force +1.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Air Force leads the FBS in rushing with 341 YPG with multiple backs gobbling up chunks of yardage. QB Daniels runs the offense well and he sports 5 YPC in his 705 yards rushing. Sure, Louisville had 2 1/2 weeks to overcome getting gashed (362 rush yards) by Kentucky; however, very tough to simulate the precision, speed, rhythmic motion of the Falcons' triple option attack with a scout team. That kind of speed and precision can't be simulated. Cardinals' defense allowed 157 YPG during regular season. Defensively, AF is fundamentally sound in all areas and a Top 10 defense in terms of yards allowed. They have playmakers at all levels. Cardinals' versatile QB Malik Cunningham is a major playmaker and won't be stopped. AF has the discipline to contain him to a certain extent. AF has done well in bowl games and rise to the occasion as its 23-9 ATS non-conference and 6-2 ATS bowl ledger suggests. Cardinals 0-3-1 ATS vs MWC. Air Force the call. |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Louisville v. Air Force OVER 54.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 53 m | Show | |
Air Force/Louisville 3:15: Thought this 'total' would be a bit higher considering the contrasting offenses that are explosive and difficult to prepare for. Cardinals possess one of the most versatile QBs in the game in Malik Cunningham who has multiple weapons to go to. Air Force defense is very good but this is surely the best they've faced all season. On the other hand, Cardinals will face the vaunted Air Force triple option which is difficult to prepare for. Louisville hasn't been a good run stopping unit this season and just got pounded by a Kentucky team in their last game of the season. Louisville is 5-2 O/U after allowing 200+ yards rushing, and they're 6-2 O/U in non-conference play. AF is 4-1 O/U as a bowl dog. "Over" the call. |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Houston +2 v. Auburn | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
Houston/Auburn Noon: Both of these teams have coaches with a troubling history of bowl losses and now on teams with a brief history of bowl losses. With all personnel together, Auburn would be TD favorite in this one but all personnel is not together for the Tigers. Auburn won't have key offensive cogs: QB Nix (Oregon transfer), RT Brodarious Hamm (NFL draft prep); sure, QB T.J. Finley was an adequate sub in the final two games including almost the monumental upset of Alabama. But credit the Auburn defense and major miscues by Alabama more. And key Tigers' defensive personnel - LB McCain and All-American C McCreary. And let's not forget the change in OC for Auburn as Boba was fired in November. Austin Davis steps in to fill the role. Just too much change to create a smooth-running team going into this one. Houston is not without key players skipping this one. Explosive KR utility guy Marcus Jones opted out (NFL draft prep) but overall, Houston maintains the nucleus of its team. QB Clayton Tune (28/9 TD/INT), leading rusher McCaskill lead a pretty potent offense that dropped 37.3 PPG on opponents this season and only coughed up the ball twice all season. Defensively, the Cougars ranked #6 in the nation in total yards allowed and allowed just 21 PPG (#28). Sure, Auburn had the way tougher schedule in the SEC but the lack of their top playmakers should disrupt their chemistry. Houston coming into this one with more continuity and worth taking as a small dog. |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints UNDER 37 | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Saints 8:15: This 'total' opened at 40 but whittled down to 37. Still value with the "under". Saints hit hard by Covid and down to their 4th team QB Ian Book. This will be his first appearance, let alone start, in an NFL regular season game. Sean Payton will surely not put him in a role to air it out regularly, especially without his starting T Ramczyk (covid) out; instead, Payton will have him lean on his supporting skill cast including versatile Kamara as a key check down option. Should be tough to get the vertical pass game going with limited vertical weapons, thin offensive line and the ball hawking secondary of Miami. On the other hand, New Orleans' defense (#4 in points allowed) will again need to step up their game like they did vs TB and Brady. Despite some thinning in the secondary, they can get it done vs a mediocre Miami offense (24th total yards). Dolphins 2-5 O/U as road favorite while the Saints are 4-12 O/U off back-to-back SU wins, and they're 2-9 O/U after allowing less than 15 points. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins v. Saints +3.5 | 20-3 | Loss | -119 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
Dolphins/Saints 8:15: Yes, Saints ravaged with Covid issues on both sides of ball. But still not ready to lay points with the Dolphins on the road (2-5 as road chalk), especially on MNF (2-8 ATS). Sure, the Dolphins are a popular choice now that they're on a 6 game win streak. A closer look reveals all but one of those wins were against teams below .500. The game they won was vs the Ravens at Miami on Thursday night (Nov 11th). Tonight, Saints will rely on their run game and quick game with 4th team QB Ian Book running the show. He's got Kamara, Callaway and Smith to lean on. Sean Payton will surely find a weakness to exploit in the overly aggressive Miami defense. On the other hand, Saints' defense coming off a superb performance vs explosive TB. Tonight, they face the struggling run game of Miami (30th in league). The Saints are short a few secondary players but still have lockdown CB Lattimore available and a few others who've played significant minutes this season. Saints a sweet 6-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points previously, 7-3 ATS in December; what's more, Saints 5-1 ATS on MNF off back-to-back SU/ATS wins in the Payton era. Saints the call. |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Washington Football Team +10 v. Cowboys | 14-56 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Washington/Dallas 8:20: Cowboys are rolling and surely a solid spread winner this season, but Washington is no easy out. Washington didn't have any quit in them with a fierce rally on Dec 12th before a big defensive play by Parsons sealed the deal. We'll look for the Football Team to give their rival a tough time here. Rivera sports a solid 4-2 ATS mark vs Dallas and he's 5-1 ATS with revenge. With Heinicke back at the helm, Washington has a fighting chance. Take the double digits. |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Broncos v. Raiders +1 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Broncos/Raiders 4:25: Raiders have had Denver's number going 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS in its last 8 in this series, including 34-24 on October 17th. In that game, Raiders got after Bridgewater hitting him a number of times and sacking him five times. Today, interception king - Drew Lock - takes over at the helm as Bridgewater is in concussion protocol. Lock has a tendency to rally his troops and make flashy plays but usually follows up with a late game interception or fumble that proves costly. Raiders still have an outside chance to get into playoffs and I surely trust Carr more than Drew Lock. Of course, Waller (knee) and Ruggs (cut) are no longer around but Carr still has enough weaponry at his disposal and TE Moreau turning into a pretty good target as well. We'll jump on Las Vegas. |
|||||||
12-26-21 | Bills v. Patriots -1 | 33-21 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
Bills/Patriots 1:00: Bills swept this series last year including the 38-9 whitewashing at Foxborough on December 28th. Patriots got busy in the free agency market bolstering their offensive and defensive line, adding playmaker hybrid edge rusher Judon and linebacker Van Noy. And the draft went well choosing QB Mac Jones; as a result, they're in position to sweep this series and win the AFC East. Bills have had trouble in this spot - coming off a double-digit SU win vs division opponent off SU/ATS loss. Buffalo run-stop-unit was exposed in first matchup Dec 6th, and Pats get Damien Harris (hamstring) back with C Andrews today. TE Hunter Henry could play a key role today as well. Buffalo won't have their starting guards - LG Feliciano and RG Ford (covid). That doesn't bode well for a team attempting to establish their run game. NE 3-1 ATS off losses and we'll hop on Belichick and the Patriots again here. |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -2 | 22-16 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Colts/Cardinals 8:15: Good spot for Arizona to get it together here; after all, they're a sweet 15-2 ATS when coming off consecutive SU/ATS losses including a perfect 12-0 ATS vs .600 or less opponent; moreover, if the opponent is non-division, they're a perfect 11-0 ATS. After losing to the Rams, Cardinals got rolled by Detroit but don't get too concerned. Cardinals are 8-2 ATS off losses of 14+. Cardinals should have RB Conner (heel) good to go while QB Murray is overdue to step up his game. Sure, he won't have Hopkins (knee) but TE Ertz, Kirk and A.J. Green is a solid trio of weapons. Indy is a bit banged up including in their secondary with S Sendejo out. Offensively for Indianapolis is a concern with their best lineman G Nelson (Covid) out. In addition, other interior linemen - C Kelly (personal) and G Glowinski (Covid) are declared out at this time. Arizona front line a formidable bunch, including a healthy WLB Chandler Jones, can get after the QB. And Wentz has been vulnerable to the sack. Sure, Jonathon Taylor is playing at MVP level but without his top hogs up front, lanes may close quickly tonight. Arizona not that easy to score against (5th in points allowed) and opportunistic (forced 24 turnovers). Arizona overdue to get on track here. With Colts' Reich just 2-10 ATS off back-to-back SU wins vs non-division foes, Cardinals the call. |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Browns v. Packers -7 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show | |
Browns/Packers 4:30: Hard to fade the Packers. They're strong this time of year (4-1 ATS Week 16) and covered 16 of their last 21 home games. Cleveland desperately needs a win to cling on slipping playoff hopes but Green Bay is also looking to secure a win for home field advantage throughout playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is the front-runner for the MVP and he should stay on top of his game despite having a few starting linemen out; after all, Cleveland has a razor thin secondary and their top pass rushers - Clowney (Covid) out with Garrett (groin) hurting. Sure, Rodgers won't have Valdes-Scantling and Cobb - both out; however, he still has plenty of weaponry with Adams, Lazard. St. Brown and RBs Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Browns will have Mayfield available but a few linemen out. And Packers' defense, unlike in years past, is well managed under DC Joe Berry. We'll look for them to close at home. Packers are 20-8 ATS off an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in this series. Green Bay the call. |
|||||||
12-25-21 | Ball State +6 v. Georgia State | 20-51 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Georgia State/Ball State 2:30: We won't sleep on Ball State which exploded out of the gate last year in their bowl win last year as an 8 point underdog vs San Jose State in a 34-13 win which was more lopsided than the final score indicated. This season, Ball State underachieved with virtually the same veteran players (leniency law allowed seniors to return another year in 2021). Yes, the Cardinals have their respectable line and skill players including QB Drew Pitt and his solid targets in Jackson, Hall and Tyler. And RB Carson Steele ran for a solid 829 yards with 6 TDs. Defensively, they're underrated. They're tough in the red zone and opportunistic forcing 15 turnovers. Georgia State is definitely confidant coming into this one with a strong 7-5/ 8-4 ATS ledger with a strong offense and surging defense. They're confident they can run all over the Ball State defense with their deep backfield and versatile QB, but I'm not buying it. Cardinals are 10-4 ATS as a dog, 14-5 ATS vs teams above .500 and 4-0 in December. This Bowl has historically been close in scoring and I expect that here. Take the Cardinals. |
|||||||
12-23-21 | 49ers -3 v. Titans | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
49ers/Titans 8:20: Titans are a dangerous dog but are having their share of problems on the offensive side of ball. Penalties and turnovers are abundant. Tannehill threw 11 INTs over the last 9 games and he's been sacked 41 times - that's tied for most in the NFL with Joe Burrow. Problem could be exacerbated tonight with a healthy Nick Bosa (15 sacks on the year) aligned where Tennessee is thin - on the left side of the line. Tennessee's LT Taylor Lewan (back) and LG Saffold (shoulder/Covid) are out. Tennessee, which has been devoid of explosive plays since RB Derrick Henry went down October 31st. It doesn't look that Julio Jones (hamstring) will be ready tonight but A.J. Brown (chest) should be good to go which is a concern. But SF secondary rising to the occasion over their 5-1 ATS run and they have the defensive line (Bosa with at least 1 sack in 6 straight games) getting to QB. Offensively, SF has playmakers - Kittle and Deebo Samuel along with FB Juszczyk. RB Elijah Mitchell (knee) is out but HC Shanahan has been good at mixing up formations penciling in players to make plays during their run. And Jimmy G is doing well at the helm. Tennessee still controls the lead in their division but SF needs a win to stay in the NFC West race. SF has closed as a road favorite at 4-1 ATS and we'll give the edge to them here and lay a field goal. |
|||||||
12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -6.5 | 29-17 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
UCF/Florida 7:00: Lots of action on UCF which went on a 5-1 SU/3-3 ATS down the stretch. A closer look at those wins reveals wins against lightweights Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Connecticut and USF; moreover, a closer look at notable season wins reveals Boise State out of the MWC. Meanwhile, Florida has been battling vs heavyweight SEC competition including trading blows with #1 Alabama in a 31-29 loss but easy cover (12). Sure, QB Anthony Richardson and NFL bound DE Zach Carter opted out but the prospects of the Gators are looking bright with new HC Napier. Special Teams Coordinator Greg Knox takes over in the interim and has a number of 5* athletes who will be auditioning for Napier's staff. QB Emory Jones has a number of starts for Florida and will be auditioning for a number of Power 5 Conference teams as he enters the transfer portal. Bottom line is that UCF's HC Malzahn is several top recruiting classes behind the Gators. Knights just 1-4 ATS as a dog. Gators 12-5 as neutral site favorite. With the athlete disparity, the Gators should keep it together tonight in a win and cover. |
|||||||
12-23-21 | Miami-OH v. North Texas +1 | 27-14 | Loss | -106 | 2 h 30 m | Show | |
Miami OH/North Texas 3:30: North Texas took it on the chin early but went 5-0 down the stretch to qualify for this bowl. They did it with an improved defense and pounding the football with DeAndre Torrey. Miami-OH got here with more finesse relying on the arm of Brett Gabbert and big play receiver Sorenson. Miami OH defense pretty solid as well. NT faced a more difficult schedule banging favorably with the likes of bowl teams UTEP and UTSA. And favorable external factors for NT here. They'll be playing nearby in Denton, Texas - essentially a home game for the Mean Green; in addition, more experience playing on natural grass than their counterpart; as a matter of fact, Miami-OH hasn't played on a grass field since September 4, 2010. Miami-OH just 4-13 ATS in non-conference and 2-5 vs Conference USA. We'll look for the Mean Green to pound it out on the ground successfully here. |
|||||||
12-22-21 | Missouri v. Army -6.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 46 m | Show | |
Missouri/Army 8:00: Army got over their biggest loss of the season to Navy and appear to be focused on Missouri. Black Knights couldn't get their run game going vs a tenacious Navy defense but should bounce back here; after all, they face one of the worst run-stop-units in the nation. Missouri defense yields 228.8 YPG which is 125th out of 130 FBS teams. Army's vaunted triple option attack, which requires a defense to prepare for disciplined assignment football approach, grinds out 286.4 YPG (#2 nationally). Moreover, both their QBs are respectable throwing when the occasion calls for it. Army's Anderson and Tyler have combined for 9 TD passes with 0 INTs. Defensively, Army posts the #15 ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Sure, competition level was severely less than Missouri - which battles in the tough SEC. However, Missouri will be without the their key weapon - Tyler Badie who posts impressive numbers- 1604 rush yards, 330 yards receiving and combined 18 TDs! He opted out to prepare for the NFL draft. On top of that, Missouri is going with a new QB Brady Cook who will make his first career collegiate start. He beat out Bazelak who was ineffective in the final game of the season; consequently, should be hard to establish a well-orchestrated offense with limited prep time. Army has been a solid bowl team under Monken at 3-1 ATS. We'll roll with Army |
|||||||
12-21-21 | San Diego State v. UTSA +3 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
UTSA/San Diego State 7:30: UTSA won't have their top RB McCormick who's prepping for the NFL draft. He was a huge part of the running game and a big loss; however, UTSA offense no one trick pony. The Roadrunners are equipped with great athletes including versatile QB Frank Harris who passed for nearly 3000 yards with 25 TD passes and only 5 INTs. Moreover, he ran for 565 yards and 6 TDs. Roadrunners have decent depth at RB with Brady and B.J. Daniels who both run for nearly 5 YPG behind a veteran, physical offensive line. And wideouts Franklin and Cephus, who've collectively accumulated over 1700 yards receiving and 17 TD catches, should be able to expose the SDSU secondary that was torched against Utah State last week in the MWC Championship. Sure, SDSU will show up today, they're well coached; however, offense too pedestrian to penetrate a physical and athletic UTSA defense. We'll take the Roadrunners. |
|||||||
12-21-21 | Seahawks +7 v. Rams | 10-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Rams 7:00: By the late portion of last week, nearly half of the Rams' team was under protocol. Protocol restrictions were eased by the league officials a week ago so many of those players will be good to go providing a few negative tests. A few key Rams' players who were listed as "out" as of Monday include SLB Von Miller, TE Tyler Higbee and LT Havenstein - all impact players. Missing the key personnel is one thing, but the disruption of preparation with the Rams' practice facility closed is a concern. Meanwhile, the Seahawks, which still are mathematically alive in the playoff race, went on with business in preparation with limited Covid issues. Seattle is off 2 straight wins and hypothetically could finish at 9-8 providing they win out. It's not unusual for the Seahawks to be strong this time of year; after all, they're 4-1 ATS in December and dangerous vs their division, especially in the dog role; for example, they're 10-1 ATS as a dog vs a division opponent off a SU/ATS win. In addition, they're 9-2 ATS vs division opponent off back-to-back SU/ATS wins. Defensively, Seattle is yielding but not giving up many points. Seattle is 4th in the NFL in scoring defense. Sure, McVay has had Carroll's number; however, Seahawks now in double revenge mode, including last year's playoff loss gives extra incentive to Seattle. With the run game starting to pick up with RB Penny, and QB Wilson getting in better rhythm, Seattle won't be an easy out. Seahawks the call. |
|||||||
12-20-21 | Vikings -6.5 v. Bears | 17-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Vikings/Bears 8:15: Bears playing for pride but even that is questionable at this stage of the season; after all, Chicago is 0-4 ATS off a SU loss of 14+ in their last 4 in that role. They hung with GB for 3 1/2 quarters last week before the flood gates opened. Tonight, it's not going to get easier. Sure, Fields will be a good QB and he does have a few playmakers in WR/PR Grant, Mooney and RB Montgomery. But having Allen Robinson on the Covid list won't help. Moreover, they won't have LT Peters and most likely their RT Borom. That won't bode well against a top tier pass rushing unit of Minnesota and ball hawking Peterson, Smith and Harrison roaming the secondary. Offensively, the Vikings may be fully loaded if Thielen (ankle) is added to the roster. As of today, he is questionable - which is good news for Vikings' backers but bad news for the Bears; after all, they will most likely be without their entire starting secondary - Covid issues. Super rookie - Justin Jefferson uncharacteristically dropped a few last week and should put up big numbers tonight. Cousins has been solid on the road and he's been accurate most of the year; of course, having Delvin Cook in the backfield is always a huge benefit. Don't like laying points with Minnesota; after all, they give up big leads (last week a sweat to the end) but in this instance, Vikings have a clear-cut advantage in personnel and should take advantage of it. Vikings the call. |
|||||||
12-20-21 | Tulsa v. Old Dominion +9.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
Old Dominion/Tulsa 2:30: Tulsa played a tough schedule and were competitive against some elite teams, including taking #4 Cincinnati to the wire in a controversial loss. However, Old Dominion no pushover. They started the year sluggish after no games last year due to Covid, but turned things around after their bye week reeling off 5 straight wins and covers. Monarchs are solid on both sides of the ball. Tulsa has a pretty strong run game led by Shamari Brooks but QB Brin has thrown 16 INTs this season. Old Dominion is well disciplined defensively with an opportunistic secondary. Offensively, the Monarchs started cooking offensively when inserting red shirt freshman Hayden Wolf. He's put up some good numbers and has a solid vertical threat in WR Jennings and a 6'8" match-up nightmare in the red zone with TE Kuntz. Moreover, a 1000+ yard rusher in Blake Watson behind a sturdy offensive line. Old Dominion went 8-3 ATS vs non-conference foes. Not crazy about Tulsa laying near double-digits here. They're just 2-6 ATS vs C-USA. Take Old Dominion. |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Bengals v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Bengals/Broncos 4:05: This series has gone 1-3 O/U in its last 4 meetings. Denver is a team with a middle of the road offense (#20 scoring) with a well-disciplined defense (#2 scoring defense). Consequently, Denver on a 1-6 O/U run. We'll ride that here. Bengals' offensive line has issues which don't allow Burrow and Mixon to do what they're capable of doing. The Bengals' defense, however, capable of holding their own here. Bengals are 1-4 O/U off a SU loss and 5-14-2 O/U as a road dog. Denver is 4-20 O/U when the OU line is 45 or more. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Bengals +3 v. Broncos | 15-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
Bengals/Broncos 4:05: The Bengals have played pretty well on the road this season with wins at Pittsburgh, Detroit, Baltimore and Las Vegas. They're coming off a narrow OT loss to San Francisco. They're 5-2 ATS off a SU loss; moreover, Joe Burrow is 3-0 ATS off consecutive losses in his career. Bengals' offensive line struggling but Burrow has amazing processing skill to find his talented receiving corps including explosive Ja'Marr Chase. Bengals are 7-2 ATS on the road vs teams with winning home records. Denver, on the other hand, can't be trusted off big wins of 14 points or more where they've gone a disappointing 3-8-1 ATS. We'll look for the Bengals to get it done on a field where they've historically had success (4-0 ATS). Cincinnati the call. |
|||||||
12-19-21 | Titans v. Steelers -1 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
Titans/Steelers 1:00: Steelers coming off arguably their worst first half of football in recent memory on the 9th at Minnesota. They did, however, show grit in that second half with a ferocious rally to nearly cover. We'll look for that enthusiastic play to stem over to this game at Heinz Field where the Steelers have gone 4-0-1 SU in their last 5 games there. Steelers 6-1 ATS after allowing 35+ points. Steelers realize they're on the ropes in the playoff race and will need to run the table while hoping for other contenders to fall. Steelers do have a few bodies getting better (LG Haeg, C Haden) and hopefully have Watt (groin) good to go. Fortunately for Pittsburgh's defense, they compete with a much less explosive offense today. Tennessee offense has averaged just 4.6 YPP over their last 5 games. Tennessee offense is simply not rolling with key playmakers A.J. Brown and Derrick Henry on IR. Foreman not getting it done and Tannehill struggling as the numbers support. Pittsburgh has won 3 straight in this series and we'll look for them to deliver here. |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots +2.5 v. Colts | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
Patriots/Colts 8:20: Both teams well rested coming off bye weeks and have had success doing so. And both running the football well and playing solid defense. Edge to Patriots, however, in a few key factors: Colts may have one of the best Guards in the NFL in Quenton Nelson but collectively, since Trent Brown came back vs the Browns, the Patriots have the best offensive line across the board. Sure, NE top rusher Damien Harris is out, but NE can just feed Stevenson and Bolden the rock without missing a beat vs a Colts' undersized defensive front. Then Mac Jones can go to work. Defensively, Patriots have a way of taking away the key component of a game and we won't put that past Belichick with extra prep time. He surely will have prepped his men to stop the NFL's leading rusher Jonathon Taylor. The Patriots' #1 scoring defense will then surely unleash it's well orchestrated pass rush on Wentz who's been solid limiting interceptions; however, he gets hit (60x) the second most in the NFL behind only Atlanta's Matt Ryan (71). With the ball hawking secondary of NE, Wentz could resort back to his Philly daze. Technically, Belichick 11-3 ATS as a greater than .500 team off a SU dog win vs a greater than .500 team off a SU win. He's also an amazing 41-15 ATS after allowing less than 250 yards in previous game. Colts don't play the home favorite role well at 2-5 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 10 home games. Patriots the call. |
|||||||
12-18-21 | UAB +7 v. BYU | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
UAB/BYU 3:30: Seemingly, #13 BYU should be giving more points than a TD; after all, they've beaten 5 PAC 12 teams and beat Virginia of the ACC. UAB is a dangerous dog under Bill Clark. He built the Blazers out the depth of ashes after UAB disbanded for the 2016-17 years. He's got a veteran team that won the C-USA Title last year and turned in some strong performances this year. There have been underachieving performances as well, but Clark's covered 2 straight bowls and brings a hungry team to Shreveport where they'll have more fan support than BYU. The Blazers' defense is stout: #1 in C-USA in terms of yardage. They're run stop unit is 11th in the nation in stopping the run and BYU's Allgeier is surely their focus today. And the Blazers have a respectable line on both sides of the ball. Defensively, they average 2.6 sacks per game and have a well disciplined secondary to limit QB Hall. Offensively, they're a veteran group that's physical and can run the rock with 1100 yard rusher DeWayne McBride. Dylan Hopkins is a capable field general with a solid supporting cast of receivers. We'll look for UAB to gain ground, eat clock and cover this this game. |
|||||||
12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -12 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 1 h 38 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
|||||||
12-18-21 | Appalachian State -2.5 v. Western Kentucky | 38-59 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
Western Kentucky/Appalachian State 11:00: Western Kentucky has a juggernaut for an offense with the nation's #1 passer Bailey Zappe who posts video game numbers in the #2 offense in the nation. Defensively, they're yielding (28.7 PPG allowed). Appalachian State, on the other hand, runs the football well (187.6 YPG), has a competent QB in Chase Brice, and plays bang up defense allowing just 19.3 PPG. The Mountaineers have a veteran defense with a good rush and ball hawking secondary. Mountaineers 6-0 in Bowls and have taken out Bowl contenders Coastal Carolina, East Carolina, Georgia State and Marshall. They're coming off a loss to ULL for Sun Belt Championship. Western Kentucky, coming off a loss to UTSA for CSUSA Championship, just 1-6 ATS vs Sun Belt Conference. Mounties 4-1 ATS neutral site favorite and we'll grab them here. |
|||||||
12-17-21 | Coastal Carolina -10.5 v. Northern Illinois | 47-41 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 41 m | Show | |
NIU/CCU 6:00: Northern Illinois coming off big MAC Championship win to cap off a tremendous season. I don't believe they have what it takes to cover this game, however, Coastal Carolina on a mission to win this bowl after failing in this same bowl last year. CC has the 6th ranked offense in terms of PPG with 40.4 led by passing efficiency leader Grayson McCall. He has multiple weapons including a prolific run game with RB Shermari Jones and 1000+ receiver Heiligh. NIU gives up way too many yards on the ground (216 YPG); consequently, should open up more explosive plays for a defense that's given up the big play routinely. NIU does have a decent offense led by QB Lombardi and RB Ducker. CCU more disciplined on the defensive end however. And they can bring the pass rush (32 sacks). Technically, NIU 0-6 ATS in Bowl Games and 2-8 ATS as a dog. We'll lay the points with the Chanticleers. |
|||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs -3 v. Chargers | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Chargers 8:20: In Week 3 of this series, Chargers delivered the goods 30-24 outright at KC as a 6.5 point dog. Chargers forced 4 turnovers in that game snatching two fumbles and picking off Maholmes twice. For the Chiefs, it was part of a miserable 3-4 SU start to the season. Since then, the Chiefs' defense tightened up the bolts and were instrumental in KC's 6-0 SU run by forcing 16 turnovers, allowing just 311.7 YPG and 10.9 PPG. All is not well for this game, however. Star defensive lineman Chris Jones (Covid) is most likely out. KC has stepped up with other linemen during their run and there is a good shot they can attack the Chargers' weakness along the offensive line. Chargers, already playing two backups along their offensive line, most likely will be without LT Slater (Covid). Former Chargers' drop down linebacker Melvin Ingram will be aiming to work LT sub Trey Pipkins. KC secondary much better than week 3 and should do a better job keeping Chargers' star receivers Allen and Williams in check. Furthermore, versatile RB Ekeler (questionable) on a short week to heal a sprained ankle. On the other hand, Chiefs' offensive line gradually getting it together and should start opening holes for Edwards-Helaire against a leaky Chargers' run-stop-unit ranked 31st in the NFL allowing a generous 141 YPG. Consequently, that would open up the passing game for Mahomes, Hill and Kelsey to get back to their high octane game. Technically, Chargers 0-4 ATS as a dog vs opponent with revenge. Road team in this series 15-5-1 ATS. And Coach Reid a sweet 13-3 ATS as a favorite off double digit ATS win. Chiefs the call. |
|||||||
12-13-21 | Rams +2.5 v. Cardinals | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
Rams/Cardinals 8:15: Rams started season well, then underachieved since October 24th going on an 0-5 ATS plunge before blowing out the Jags last Sunday. Rams, along with Arizona, are arguably the two most talented teams in the NFL on paper. Arizona has lived up to its billing to a certain extent while the Rams are overdue to get it going. We'll look for Los Angeles to deliver here; after all, they haven't lost in Arizona since 2014. They're 6-0 ATS on Arizona's home field. Sure, the Rams are well aware they laid an egg at San Francisco on Monday, November 15th. Yet, they're still 6-2 ATS on MNF on the road vs a division opponent and they're seeking to avenge their 37-20 loss in Los Angeles earlier this season. Arizona is a miserable 1-7 ATS on MNF vs a division opponent and 1-5 ATS as a MNF home favorite. We'll back the Rams here. |
|||||||
12-12-21 | 49ers v. Bengals +2 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
49ers/Bengals 4:25: Bengals coming off a disappointing loss at home to the Chargers. A game in which they were on their way to making a miraculous comeback before RB Joe Mixon fumbled and the Chargers scooped and scored to put it away. Bengals have resilience in them. Burrow, who practiced this week with sore finger, is a sweet 8-2 ATS off a loss as a starter. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a dog after allowing 35+. They're also 6-0 ATS as a non-division home dog off a SU favorite loss. 49ers who will have Deebo Samuel back, are a money burner as a favorite at 4-11 ATS and 1-4 ATS in December. Samuel, the fuel to the SF offense, is dealing with a groin issue and I'm finding it hard to fathom he'll be able to go full throttle today. We'll look for Cincinnati to deliver here. |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Lions v. Broncos -11 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Detroit/Denver 4:05: Had Detroit last week in their epic last second win at home vs Minnesota; today, I'm fading them against a hungry Denver team. Denver's coming off a disappointing divisional loss to KC but still in the playoff hunt. Broncos are 10-1 ATS after scoring less than 15 points. They're also 11-2 ATS vs teams under .500. Moreover, they're 10-1 ATS as favorites of more than 4 points vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Broncos will have Melvin Gordon back today to add to the quality RB depth after Javonte Williams (102 rush yards last week) did a bang up job in KC. Don't see the Lions hanging with a well disciplined Vic Fangio coached defense, especially without a run game this late in the season. And the Lions had nearly a dozen players down with the flu mid week. Broncos should wear them down over the course of this game. Denver the call. |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Ravens v. Browns -2.5 | 22-24 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Ravens/Browns 1:00: Huge scheduling advantage for Cleveland who are coming off a bye in revenge mode from November 28th loss. In that game, they intercepted Lamar Jackson 4X yet still lost the game. Browns had time to rest and get healthy, watch film and prep for a team that's absolutely owned them in recent years. Meanwhile, Ravens coming off loss to Steelers last week and lost their Pro Bowl C Marlon Humphrey (pec). Cleveland absolutely has to win this game to contend for a playoff spot. This time, we'll look for the Browns to establish some semblance of a run game this time around. Bottom line, mid December bye week should pay dividends and give them the win and cover. |
|||||||
12-12-21 | Saints -5 v. Jets | 30-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Saints/Jets 1:00: Saints way overdue to get untracked after dropping 5 straight games. New Orleans offense, which has been dreadful during their slide, gets a significant boost with Alvin Kamara back. Also LT Armstead returning will help vs a Jets' defense last in virtually every category in the NFL. QB Taysom Hill should find a semblance of a rhythm running the offense this week. And the Jets are severely shorthanded with eight players out of practice as of Wednesday. Jets are 5-14 ATS after allowing 30+ points. Saints a decent road favorite at 17-8 ATS and 9-3 ATS on the road vs teams below .500. Saint the call. |
|||||||
12-11-21 | Navy +7 v. Army | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
Army/Navy 3:00: Army has gotten the best of this series in recent years at 5-2 ATS including last year's 15-0 shutout. Niumatalolo pretty good in a revenge mode and had his men cover 7 of the last 9 games after a rough start. Army is clearly the more complete team with a better defense, better run game and QB. But don't count the Midshipmen out, they're 5-1 ATS with extra rest and covered 6 of their last 8 dog roles. They'll have extra motivation playing for their fallen comrade Bourgeois. Take the points. |
|||||||
12-10-21 | Murray State +11.5 v. Memphis | 74-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
|||||||
12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
Steelers/Vikings 8:20: Both teams in desperation mode and still in playoff hunt. Minnesota in a bit more dire need of a win after two straight losses, including embarrassing outright defeat Sunday at Detroit. The Vikings, one game behind Washington and SF for the final NFC Playoff spot, has been atrocious defensively over the last four weeks - allowing 29 or more points in 4 of the last 5 weeks. That is highly uncharacteristic of a defensive minded Mike Zimmer coached team. Help is on the way though. Vikings will get back perennial All-Pro C Patrick Peterson, and important LBs Kendricks and Barr. Fortunately, banged up interior line of Pittsburgh stays banged up with B.J. Finney and Joe Haeg remain out. And protecting Big Ben and unleashing RB Najee Harris has been a problem for most of the year. Offensively, Minnesota will miss Thielen (out) but Justin Jefferson is a matchup nightmare and K.J. Osborn is a decent secondary or third option along with TE Conklin. And Dalvin Cook (shoulder), the engine that fuels the Minnesota offense, could actually play, which would be awesome. He's upgraded as questionable with limited practice. Bottom line, Kirk Cousins, underrated QB, should be able to work the struggling Steelers' secondary. Technically, Vikings not a good favorite, but 7-1 ATS at home off a SU loss vs a greater than .500 opponent. Moreover, Zimmer is a sweet 11-2 ATS off back-to-back SU losses vs non-division foes. Furthermore, Vikings 5-0 ATS on Thursdays off a SU loss. Steelers a money burning 1-5 ATS on Thursdays vs an opponent off SU loss. Take the Vikings. |
|||||||
12-07-21 | Butler v. Oklahoma -11 | 66-62 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
Butler/Oklahoma 9:00: Butler sports a respectable 5-3 SU mark on the surface but all wins come against lightweight teams. When they managed to step up in competition, the Bulldogs fell flat dropping to Michigan State, Houston and Texas A&M. The 1-5 ATS Bulldogs now have to travel to their first true road game with one of their top playmakers - Bryce Nye (torn labrum) most likely out. Offensively challenged Butler averaging just 64.6 PPG (306th nationally) will have difficulty manufacturing points vs Porter Moser's well-disciplined bunch. Moser, who had lock-down teams while at Loyola University Chicago, still driving his men to improve on the defensive end despite allowing only one team to shoot better than 37% this season. Butler likes to shoot from the perimeter but Oklahoma allows just 26.5% from the perimeter. Duke transfer Goldwire working well at the point and 6'10" Tanner Groves should be too much for the Bulldogs tonight. Oklahoma the call. |
|||||||
12-06-21 | Patriots +3 v. Bills | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show | |
Patriots/Bills 8:15: Bills have alternated wins and losses since October 10th. Sure, they're still an elite team but have their flaws. One of them is the offensive line. Bills' offensive line mediocre at this time of year. Since October, each time the Bills have lost the run game, they've lost the game: Tennessee, Jacksonville and Indianapolis all out run them and proceeded to win. NE now has their run game cooking with Harris and Stevenson behind a physical offensive line and Mac Jones is on with his receiving corps. Bills' top corner Tre'Davious White (ACL) is troublesome. On the other side of the ball, Patriots are locked in as the #1 defense in points allowed and #2 in takeaways. And Belichick has his edge rusher in Judon. Moreover, he's got a lock down corner in J.C. Jackson who should get the assignment on Bills' Diggs. And let us not forget that the Patriots got swept in this series last year including an embarrassing 38-9 demolition on their home field. Belichick doesn't take that lightly and now has the personnel to seek revenge. Belichick a sweet 14-2 ATS with revenge vs a division opponent in December. Take New England. |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 47.5 | Top | 9-22 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Broncos/Chiefs 8:20: Both of these teams turning up the heat defensively. Love how the Broncos held the potent Chargers' offense to 13 points last week. Broncos have the #3 scoring defense in the NFL allowing just 17.8 PPG. Chiefs are actually turning it up defensively holding their last 4 foes to 17, 7, 14 and 9 points, respectively. Broncos have a more conservative ball control offense and will be without RB Melvin Gordon. This series has gone "under" in 3 of the last 4 games. Denver is 3-15 O/U when the 'total' is set at above 45 vs a conference opponent. Broncos are also 4-14 O/U vs the AFC West. Chiefs are coming off a bye week and 3-11-1 O/U in that role. These teams are a combined 14-30 O/U in December. We'll stay "under". |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Vikings v. Lions +7.5 | 27-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Vikings/Lions 1:00: Lions stick around in games and dangerous as a dog; moreover, they're 5-0 ATS as a division home dog. The Lions traded blow for blow with Minnesota in Minneapolis on October 10th in a 19-17 SU loss but cover as an 8 point dog. Vikings do not play the favorite role well at 1-8 ATS and 0-4 ATS in December. Not having Delvin Cook (shoulder), who is the driving force of that offense, will put more pressure on QB Cousins to produce. Of course having Jefferson and Thielen is always a huge plus. And surely the Detroit defense leaves much to be desired; however, Minnesota defense struggling itself; as a matter of fact, they're 30th in yards allowed and yielding vs the run. Detroit won't have explosive RB Swift but Jamaal Williams a productive backup. Minnesota has a big void at MLB without Kendricks (63 solo, 4 sacks, 2 INTs). Detroit QB Goff has some solid weapons including TE Hockenson. We'll look for the well rested Lions to give that extra revenge effort and deliver its 3rd straight cover in this series. |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Giants v. Dolphins -6 | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Giants/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins starting to roll and I don't see a setback here; after all, they're getting back DeVante Parker (activated) and C Deiter (activated). Meanwhile, Giants lose QB Daniel Jones (neck) and Shepard and Toney are doubtful. Can't have confidence in Mike Glennon who's record as a starter leaves much to be desired. Couple him with new OC Freddie Kitchens and that's a disaster waiting to happen. Dolphins' defense has been rock solid over the last 4 games allowing an average of just 11.5 PPG. Offensively, Tua starting to get in rhythm with his receivers. Giants are thin in the secondary and won't have an additional playmaker - CB Adoree Jackson (out). Miami a sweet 10-2 ATS at home vs less than .500 foes, 7-1 ATS vs an opponent off a home game, and 9-2 ATS off non-division vs less than .500 foe. Giants 3-12 ATS on the road vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Miami the call. |
|||||||
12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | 41-22 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
Chargers/Bengals 1:00: Tough schedule for the Chargers - Coming off a loss at Denver and now have to travel to Cincinnati. Bengals sport a 6-1 ATS mark in this series and they're coming off two strong wins at Las Vegas and home vs Pittsburgh where they grinded out 159 and 200 yards rushing, respectively. That doesn't bode well for the Chargers' yielding run-stop-unit that's last in the NFL allowing 145 YPG. Joe Mixon should continue to set things up for Joe Burrow. Burrow slinging the ball to multiple weapons -Chase, Higgins, Boyd and TE Uzomah. Chargers without C Asante Samuel won't help matters. December football means you got to be able to run the rock. Chargers ran for a mere 72 yards on the ground last week. Bengals control the #4 run stop unit in the NFL and can rush the passer. LAC a money burning 2-12 ATS off a double-digit SU division road loss. We'll lay a field goal with Cincinnati. |
|||||||
12-04-21 | Houston +10.5 v. Cincinnati | 20-35 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 54 m | Show | |
Houston/Cincinnati 4:00: Houston no easy out. Since losing their season opener to Texas Tech, the Cougars rattled off 11 straight wins. They have a Top 20 defense in points allowed, and they get after the passer (3.58 sacks per game). Bearcats' QB Ridder is good but this is one of the better defenses he's faced this season besides ND. What is troublesome for Cincinnati is their kicking game. And Houston has the most explosive return specialist in the nation in Marcus Jones who has run back 6 kickoff returns and 3 punt returns. Moreover, Cougars can move the football. QB Tune completed 69% of his passes with 26 TDs and 8 INTs. He has a solid line and good supporting help in skill positions. We'll look for Houston to hang around in this one. |
|||||||
12-04-21 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
Appalachian State/UL-Lafayette 3:30: Appalachian State eager to exact revenge on the Ragin' Cajuns after their October 12th 41-13 beatdown. Sure, the Mountaineers have been on a winning mission since, simplifying their offense and playing stellar defense en-route to a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS tear. And the Mountaineers have beaten UL-L in the last two Sun Belt Championships. But don't count the Ragin Cajuns out. Sure, Billy Napier is headed to Florida but he insists on coaching this final game to guide his men to what has eluded him in his outstanding tenure at bringing back UL-L football to respectability. He's got a great defense, a veteran, versatile QB Levi Lewis and a hungry group of men. And the Cajuns do not lose at home. We'll look for Napier and his boys to go out winners. |
|||||||
12-04-21 | Utah State v. San Diego State -3.5 | 46-13 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 39 m | Show | |
Utah State/San Diego State 3:00: This line has stayed steady on some books but has gotten as high as -6' in others. We won't waiver from the near TD favorite with the Aztecs. Aztecs physically beat up the Aggies last year in a 38-7 beat down. This year, SDS still has a legitimate Top 10 scoring defense allowing just 17.3 PPG. This year, Utah State does have a new QB in Arizona State transfer Logan Bonner who has some solid weapons including dangerous wideout Devin Thomkins. Not to worry SDS backers. The Aztecs have a ball hawking secondary with 15 INTs led by Sr. CB Taylor Hawkins. And the Aggies have had trouble at times protecting Bonner. That doesn't bode well for them with the Aggies fierce defensive front led by sack master Cameron Thomas (10 sacks). On the other side of the ball, SDS likes to control the clock with a bruising run game behind a physical offensive line. Aztecs rush for 178 YPG. Bottom line, if you look at Utah State's losses this season, they come vs physical teams that beat them handily on the line of scrimmage: Wyoming bludgeoned them on the ground in a 44-17 demolition; BYU pounded them 34-24 and Boise State throttled them 27-3. Utah State 0-12 ATS as dogs of less than 24 points vs .700 opponents. Sure, SDS has not been a good favorite but in this instance, brute force should dominate finesse. Aztecs the call. |
|||||||
12-03-21 | Clippers v. Lakers +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 34 m | Show | |
Clippers/Lakers 10:10: Two underachievers going at it on their home floor. Lakers will be designated home team and the crowd is usually partial to the Lakers at The Staples Center. Clippers on an 0-5 ATS/1-4 SU slide but they do get Paul George back tonight. The Lakers, on a 3-2 SU/2-3 ATS run, will have LeBron James back as he cleared Covid19 protocol and that will help ignite the loaded talent roster of the Lakers. They've lost three straight in this series and tonight is the optimum time to get up another game in the standings on the Clippers and re-establish their presence as a serious contender in the Western Conference Pacific. We'll take a bucket with the Lakers. |
|||||||
12-02-21 | Cowboys v. Saints UNDER 47.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Saints 8:20: A few points of value with this Over/Under. Saints are limited in offensive weaponry. QB Taysom Hill should get the start but he doesn't have a lot of explosive options to go to. Kamara (knee) practiced on a limited basis this week and he is surely the best option for Hill to hook up with; however, he's been out 3 weeks and just had a few practices. Dallas' interim HC Quinn, who is also the DC, should adjust his defensive plan accordingly. The Cowboys' defense has given up more than enough explosive plays this year. Tonight, if Quinn has his deep defenders keep everything in front of them, he should be able to limit Saints' scoring. Dallas, on the other hand, should have Prescott's top receiver - Lamb - and on a limited basis - Cooper. Cowboys' run game, however, a concern. Just 64 rush yards last week and New Orleans' run-stop-unit allows just 91.9 YPG (#3). Saints' defense allows a respectable 22.6 PPG. Cowboys will be without both their offensive line coaches and HC McCarthy. Shouldn't affect play calling duties. Dallas, however, will be without RT Steele (Covid) and LT Smith really struggled last week after getting back into action recoverin from injuries. Technically, Dallas is 2-10 O/U vs the NFC South, 1-4 O/U as a road favorite and on a 1-4 O/U run. Saints 0-9 O/U Thursday run and this series is 1-4 O/U. We'll stay "under". |
|||||||
12-02-21 | Bucks v. Raptors +5 | 93-97 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
Bucks/Raptors 7:40: Red hot Bucks won its 8th straight game last night in a 127-125 thriller at home vs Charlotte. Following that emotional win, the Bucks have to travel to Toronto unrested to face a pissed off Toronto team that's lost 3 straight and sports a poor home floor mark of 1-9 ATS. Toronto, however, sports a sweet 9-1 ATS mark off 3 straight losses outgunning their opponent by an average of 13 PPG in that situation. Toronto has held their own in this series at 3-1 ATS in its last 4 meetings. And the Bucks sport a disappointing 1-5 ATS unrested. Sure, Toronto has its share of injuries but the Bucks are thin inside without Lopez (out). We'll look for Van Fleet and Siakam to lead a big effort here in Toronto. Take Toronto. |
|||||||
12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | 119-115 | Loss | -106 | 1 h 11 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks have showed resilience off losses at 5-2 ATS and we'll grab them here. They won in Atlanta and then had a solid cover (SU loss) in Brooklyn led by Alec Burks. Burks took over the starting PG duties in place of Kemba Walker as announced Monday by Thibodeaux. Too early to tell if it's the right decision but NY has a pretty deep bench of playmakers including former Bull - Derrick Rose. Randle needs to continue to elevate his game like he did on November 21st (34 points) in the Knicks loss to successfully counter Vucevic. Bulls coming off big win over Charlotte on the 29th but kind of choppy off SU wins as of late at 1-3 ATS. Bulls are a good road favorite but 1-4 ATS on 2 days rest and 0-4 ATS at MSG. We'll take NY and the bucket. |
|||||||
12-01-21 | Utah v. USC UNDER 137.5 | 73-93 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Utah/USC 11:30pm: These teams are both well-disciplined on the defensive end. USC's Enfield has his boys holding foes to a smothering 34.4% from the floor and hasn't allowed a single opponent to shoot 40% this season. Utah's first year HC Craig Smith - who came from defensively stout Utah State - has his team allowing just 60 PPG (48th nationally) and guard the perimeter well (24.8% - 4th nationally). Trojans aren't going to light it up from 3 point land for Ellis is their top gun hitting the trey at a 41% clip but averaging around 15 PPG. USC does have the interior presence with Mobley but Utah defense stingy at allowing 38% from floor. And USC can get to the foul line but clanks it at a disappointing 57.7% clip. On the offensive end for Utah, they're more workmanlike than sizzling shooting. 7' C Craig Smith and G Jenkins are key contributors but aren't going to light it up on USC's home floor. USC is 3-8 O/U after allowing less than 50 points in previous game while Utah is 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road tilts. "Under" the call. |
|||||||
11-30-21 | Duke -2.5 v. Ohio State | 66-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 34 m | Show | |
Duke/Ohio State 9:30: There's always a chance of a letdown by a team after a huge win; after all, Duke took out top ranked Gonzaga in Las Vegas on Friday 84-81 to surge to #1. OSU will surely be hungry to knock them off but unlikely. Coach K, in his final season, will have his guys even keeled and well prepared. He's got a great mix of experienced talent including captain - Wendell Moore Jr., Roach and Williams to blend with super freshman - Banchero. And the Blue Devils are far more disciplined on both sides of the floor at this stage; for example, Duke is 2nd in the nation in fouls per possession while OSU ranks 234th; moreover, Buckeyes turned the ball over 17 times resulting in 23 points vs Florida. Duke forced #1 Gonzaga into 17 turnovers on Friday. Duke is 21st in nation in forcing turnovers. And the crowd surely won't sway Duke. They delivered on Friday in front of 20,400! We'll grab the Blue Devils. |
|||||||
11-29-21 | Seahawks +1 v. Washington Football Team | 15-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
Seahawks/Washington 8:15: Lots of bad news in the press on the Seahawks: riddled by injuries, Russ Wilson not in rhythm with receivers, defense struggling to make plays. Pete Carroll will have none of it. He's looking at going 7-0 down the stretch to make playoffs. I won't bet against him. Carroll is 14-2 ATS off back-to-back losses and the undisputed king of NFL coaches in Prime Time. Seattle a sweet 11-3 SU on MNF. Worried about the Seahawks going to the Eastern Time Zone? Seahawks a sweet 14-2 SU the last 16 with Carroll in that situation. Washington a money burning 5-12 as a home favorite on MNF and just 1-4 ATS in their last 4 at home. We'll grab the Seahawks. |