Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-14-19 | Army +11.5 v. Navy | 7-31 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 12 m | Show | |
Army/Navy 3:00: Historically a low scoring game, this one sets up as one too. With light drizzle, and two run games worth note (Navy #1/Army #2), lots of clock eating here. At the same time, both teams very similar in production on both sides of the ball. QBs Perry (Navy) and Hopkins (Army) lead dangerous triple option teams - both limited in passing. Hopkins did bang up his leg in the last game in Hawaii but good to go. Army surely underachieved this season and won't be bowling but they were in almost every game; as a matter of fact, they lost 6 of 7 by single digits. Army won this one 3 straight and they won't be bowling this year; however, Army will consider this as their bowl keeping this one tight. Army the call. |
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12-14-19 | Syracuse +3 v. Georgetown | 79-89 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
Syracuse/Georgetown 1:00: Georgetown, already lost Gardner and Alexander, now down to 7 scholarship players after the latest incident involving LeBlanc and Akinjo. Probably not directly going to come in to play in this game, but the depth will later in the year. For now, it's bad for the program. In this series, the road team has gone 10-2 ATS and the dog 8-3 ATS. Boeheim has his zone defense gradually working in to a disruptive force, forcing turnovers and creating points off it. Georgetown is turnover prone (16.7 per game) and should fall victim here. We'll look for Hughes and company to deliver the goods. |
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12-14-19 | Oregon +3.5 v. Michigan | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Oregon/Michigan Noon: Oregon has been a dangerous road team under Altman for years. The Ducks have covered 10 of their last 11 road games and were extremely competitive this season going 3-1 ATS against the likes of Memphis (W), Seton Hall (W), Gonzaga (OT) and a narrow loss at UNC. Sure, Oregon has a few players that will sit out but depth is there and Altman know how to use his bench. We'll look for Pritchard and company to keep it tight for the Michigan defense (173rd in nation) will allow the Ducks to stay in it. |
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12-13-19 | Nebraska v. Indiana -16 | 90-96 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Indiana 8:00: At first glance, Nebraska seems to be the call; after all, they beat them outright last year on Indiana's home floor and have Fred Hoiberg, who had success years ago at Iowa State, now running the show. With a closer look, however, we see that Nebraska hasn't beaten a good team yet and the cupboard was left bare for Hoiberg in terms of quality recruits. The 'Huskers are poor defensively and worse - ridiculously bad on the defensive boards (next to last in NCAA Division 1A) and a pathetic free throw shooting team at 56%. Therefore, if they don't outscore their opponent, they most likely won't win. That doesn't bode well against the vengeful Hoosiers. Indiana is gradually getting back their early season scoring prowess as they get healthy. Hoosiers are a strong boarding team (9th in the nation) and can put points on the board (81 PPG). They're 5-1 ATS at home and 5-2 ATS on Fridays. Hoosiers should roll. |
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12-12-19 | Jets v. Ravens -15.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 28 m | Show | |
Jets/Ravens 8:20: Jets are winning games but against lightweights. And when they did beat up some winning teams - Dallas 10/13 and I had them against Oakland on Nov 24th, it was at East Rutherford. Going on the road is a different story. The Jets are in the bottom of the NFL in offensive rushing and it will hurt them here. Baltimore brings a hard charging defense that's quite opportunistic (+8 turnover margin). And Darnold is at his most vulnerable on the road. On the other hand, Lamar Jackson and company are cranking it up and the #1 rushing team in the NFL at 200.9 YPG is rolling over defenses. Sure, NY has a good run-stop-unit but Q. Williams (neck) is a big defensive line force who will be missed; moreover, the Jets' secondary will be without 3 of their starters. Remember, Jackson has thrown 28 TD passes this season including 16 over the last 5 games. Baltimore juggernaut should continue to roll in prime time as they vie for the #1 seed. |
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12-12-19 | 76ers v. Celtics +1.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 45 m | Show | |
12-11-19 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers -2 | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Rutgers 7:00: Rutgers no joke at home. A good scoring mix lead by Harper Jr., Johnson and Baker. And they've got some juice coming off the bench with Yeboah and Young. Rutgers off a pair of tough road losses including Sunday staying within the number at Michigan State. Wisconsin, on the other hand, is feeling pretty good about themselves off a blowout over Indiana; however, they struggle to generate offense on the road and ranked 256th offensively. Rutgers can D UP at home and I like them here. Home team in this series is 5-1 ATS. Rutgers the call. |
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12-10-19 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | 69-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
Maryland/Penn State 7:00: This series has been home dominant with the home team winning outright the last 5 times. Penn State has a strong floor and a veteran team coming off a blowout loss to a very good team in Ohio State. Penn State was in that game (trailing by single digits with 14 minutes left) until their star - Lamar Stevens fouled out. Penn State goes when Stevens goes. He does have a good surrounding cast that should keep Cowan and company in check. Maryland came back from the dead to win their last game at Illinois. Maryland won't have an easy time here. We'll grab the bucket. |
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12-09-19 | Giants v. Eagles OVER 44.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 17 h 13 m | Show | |
Giants/Eagles 8:15: This series has gone "over" in 6 of the last 7 meetings and I expect another high scoring game here. Eli Manning returns and there might be a bit more magic left; after all, he's got some decent receivers to go to in Golden Tate and Darius Slayton along with now healthy RB Barkley. He faces a Philly defense that struggles against the pass. And remember, the Dolphins hung 37 on them last week. As for the Giants' defense, Wentz and company should thrash them. Giants haven't stopped any team worth note all season. They allow 28.3 PPG - bottom tier of NFL. Giants are 7-1 O/U on the road and 5-1 O/U after scoring less than 15 points previously. "Over" easy. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks +1 v. Rams | 12-28 | Loss | -111 | 17 h 56 m | Show | |
Seattle/Los Angeles 8:20: Seattle has been doing their best work on the road (6-1 ATS) and, as a I mentioned before, Pete Carroll is the prime time king. Seattle won this matchup in Week 5 yet are playing better at this stage of the season. Mid season arrivals - Clowney and Josh Gordon are making big contributions. And RB Penny adding to the potent run game with Carson behind a strong offensive line. OC Shottenheimer doing a good job mixing it up as QB Wilson continues to play at a high level. Rams want revenge from earlier season defeat; however, they're just 1-10 ATS at home with revenge off a division road game. We'll ride the Seahawks here. |
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12-08-19 | 49ers +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 48-46 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show |
49ers/Saints 1:00: 49ers fought a hard battle last week and nearly pulled off a win vs the hottest team in the NFL. San Francisco's defense exhibited its quickness last week doing a pretty good job against the MVP frontrunner - Lamar Jackson. 49ers' defense will have another stern test against a potent New Orleans' offense. I believe the #1 defense in the NFL is up for the challenge. Saints didn't look all that sharp last week vs a weak Atlanta defense. Saints will face a significant upgrade in front four and secondary. Saints miss RB Ingram (Baltimore) ranking 17th in rushing this year. That will be a problem against this hard nosed SF defense. On the other side of the ball, the 49ers have a strong run game with a loaded backfield and Garoppolo has sharpened in recent weeks after TE Kittle got back in the lineup. 49ers a strong road team at 5-1 ATS and I like them here. |
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12-08-19 | Broncos +10.5 v. Texans | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
Broncos/Texans 1:00: Broncos on a nice 4-1 ATS run and most likely found their future QB in Lock who did some good things last week against the Chargers. They've covered 5 of their last 7 road dog roles. Sure, Watson is playing great but him and his mates should have a bit of a letdown off that huge win against New England last week. Houston is a mere 1-8 ATS at home vs the AFC West and just 1-5 ATS as home chalk. We'll look for Denver to keep it tight here. |
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12-08-19 | Colts +3.5 v. Bucs | Top | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Colts/Bucs 1:00: Colts are a respectable 6-2 ATS on the road, 3-1-1 ATS as a road dog, and 5-0 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Reich is a quality coach at figuring out what needs to be done. He put them on a nice roll down the stretch last year and should be able to rebound here; after all, Colts are 7-1 ATS on the road vs the NFC South, 5-0 ATS in this series. Colts actually outgained the Titans last week but 3 turnovers did them in. We'll look for refined play here vs a Bucs team that's 8-20 ATS as home chalk, 2-10 ATS in Week 14 and failed to cover in their last 5 home games. Colts' defense had a winning formula at KC vs the potent Chiefs offense on October 6th. We'll look for Indy to force Winston in mistakes today. And with the emergence of Pascal at WR, Brissett and company should work a TB pass defense that allows 282 YPG. Bucs a dismal 2-13 ATS off back to back away games and should succumb here. |
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12-07-19 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State -15.5 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
Wisconsin/OSU 8:00: Hard to stop the Buckeye machine this year with a perfect season and 9-2 ATS in the process. Moreover, they usually stay hungry this time of year with a 4-1 ATS December ledger. They dominated Wisconsin in Columbus back on October 26th taking away Wisconsin's biggest threat - Jonathan Taylor. OSU allows a miniscule 232.6 YPG and surely QB Jack Coan isn't going to dent the ball hawking secondary. OSU usually wins the battle in the trenches and Wisconsin can't beat them there. On the other hand, OSU QB Justin Fields (MCL) is good to go after the scare at Michigan. He's got a crap load of weapons including J.K. Dobbins to do more damage. OSU feeds off blowouts as their 10-2 ATS mark off a SU win of 20+ indicates. OSU the call. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
Georgia/LSU 4:00: LSU has solidified a spot in the CFP. They have the most likely Heisman Trophy candidate QB Burrow who pilots the top offense in the nation. However, I do like the Georgia defense that is very difficult to run and pass against. They absolutely shut down a potent Auburn offense for nearly 4 quarters before a late surge as Georgia loosened up coverage. I'm going to look for them to keep Burrow in check early. Offensively, the Bulldogs feed off RB Swift who is good to go after sustaining a shoulder bruise last week. LSU has had some defensive lapses this year and Georgia can run the football. Georgia desperately needs a win here to qualify for that 4th CFP spot. We'll look for them to make a run for the money. |
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12-07-19 | Baylor +9.5 v. Oklahoma | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show | |
Baylor/Oklahoma Noon: I was on Baylor in the first meeting and I'm staying on them here despite the return of Oklahoma's top gun WR Lamb. Baylor has an underappreciated defense that is top tier in the Big 12 and 13th ranked in the nation in terms of allowing points (18.4 PPG). Brewer and company can also move the football and proved it in the first matchup. The Bears are coming off a blow out win at Kansas on the 30th. Rhule will surely have his boys fired up for this one in an opportunity for an outside shot at that fourth spot in the playoffs. Rhule is 16-3 ATS against conference foes coming off a double-digit win. Baylor the call. |
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12-06-19 | Clippers +4.5 v. Bucks | 91-119 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 41 m | Show | |
Clippers/Bucks 8:35: Bucks have been on a roll but this is their first big challenge in a while and Los Angeles should be up for it. Clippers, off since Tuesday, are 4-0 ATS on 2+ days rest and won 11 of the last 16 in this series. Clippers Leonard (knee) should be good to go and has a hot supporting cast to enter this one. Harrell and Patterson have been picking up their game of late to add support to George, Leonard and Williams. Bucks' Greek Freak having an MVP caliber year and he's well supported, but Clippers should keep it tight in a game they're up for. |
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12-06-19 | Clippers v. Bucks OVER 232.5 | 91-119 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 26 m | Show | |
Clippers/Bucks 8:35: This series has gone "over" in 4 of the last 5 contests; moreover, 5-0 O/U at Milwaukee. Clippers gladly run with teams who like to run. Clippers are 7-1 O/U vs teams above .500. With all of the top guns healthy locked, loaded and well rested, we'll look for this one to bust "over" the total. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon +7 v. Utah | 37-15 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
Oregon/Utah 8:00: Utah has been a money making machine this year with 8 straight covers; however, Oregon has a veteran offense with a future #1 NFL draft choice in QB Justin Herbert to keep it close. Sure, the weather conditions are poor with rain and high winds on a soggy Levi Stadium grass in Santa Clara; however, Oregon has a run game too at 181 YPG. It won't be easy against one of the top defenses in every category across the board. Nevertheless, like Oregon to keep it tight. Remember, Utah was in a similar situation last year leading into the conference championship and ended up laying an egg to a lesser talented Washington team. And defensively, Oregon underrated with a solid run-stop unit and ball hawking secondary. Ducks the call. |
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12-05-19 | Cowboys v. Bears +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Bears 8:20: Cowboys have the overall talent edge but still unable to put it together. They haven't defeated a winning team all season and now laying points on the road vs a .500 team. We'll take the points with a Bears team that's 6-1 ATS off back-to-back wins vs a conference opponent. Bears' offense not a juggernaut by any stretch but Trubisky showed promise last week at Detroit as receivers other than Robinson and Cohen are starting to create separation. Also, RB Montgomery not the back Jordan Howard was, but starting to excel as the season progresses. Dallas does have the #1 offense but unable to capitalize and finish in the end zone. Tonight, they face a pretty good defense under Pagano that needs to show the passion of their former DC Fangio. We'll look for that to emerge tonight in a much needed win for Chicago to stay in the playoff race. |
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12-05-19 | Rockets v. Raptors OVER 230 | 119-109 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
12-04-19 | South Carolina v. Massachusetts UNDER 141 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
South Carolina/U Mass 7:00: Both of these teams are offensively challenged to a degree. SC struggles to put up points against winning teams and relies on sound defense, forcing turnovers to manufacture points. Frank Martin doesn't have that gifted go-to scorer. Lawson is the Gamecocks' leading scorer and Kotsar has recently shown promise. The Minutemen rely mostly on G T.J. Weeks to generate points. Both teams guard the 3 point line well at around 27%, yet don't have that pin point accurate 3 point shooter to do any damage in the first place. SC is 2-6 O/U vs the Atlantic 10 and this total is slightly higher than it should be. "Under" the call. |
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12-03-19 | Duke +6.5 v. Michigan State | 87-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
Duke/Michigan State 9:30: Neither team is making money for anybody this season for both teams overpriced early; however, Duke's Coach K is dangerous as a dog as once again demonstrated with their 11/5 win over Kansas as a 2' point pup. Moreover, Coach K has virtually owned Izzo on a 7-1 SU run and he's still stewing over the one point loss in the NCAA's at the end of March. Duke won't have their third leading scorer Cassius Stanley (hamstring) but Baker and a host of talent can surely fill in. Sure, Michigan State's PG Winston is a game changer but Duke has a pretty great PG of their own in Tre Jones. And C Carey Jr. can measure up to Michigan State's big man Tillman. Duke is 10-3 ATS vs the Big Ten and you can always expect a Coach K team to play at maximum effort in these marquee games. Duke the call. |
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12-03-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +3.5 | 127-94 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 22 m | Show | |
Detroit/Cleveland 7:05: Detroit feeling pretty good about themselves after their home blowout win over San Antonio. And the public has reacted positively too labeling Detroit as the overwhelming bet tonight. However, if you step back and look at the Pistons recent history, you don't want to be laying points on the road with this team. They're 1-5 ATS on the road vs teams with a winning percentage below .400. They've covered once out of seven times in Cleveland, and they're 0-3-1 ATS following a win of 10 or more points. Sure, Beilein's boys are taking it on the chin but his young bunch is showing signs of improvement. Cleveland covered at home in their last game vs Milwaukee and PG Garland stepping up his game. Cleveland 20-7 ATS vs teams below .400 and we'll take the points here. |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
Vikings/Seahawks 8:15: Vikings are well rested and that usually helps this late in the season for a contending team. Minnesota, however, is a mere 2-8 ATS following a bye. They're also a dismal 2-10 ATS on MNF. Throw in Thielen as a scratch and that will surely help Seattle's secondary. Not a fan of this year's Seattle defense but they've become increasingly opportunistic forcing 16 takeaways over the last 6 games. And now that Penny broke out as the lead horse in the backfield, him and Carson can help QB Wilson stay on path as an MVP candidate. Seattle is 5-1 ATS at home vs Minnesota. Sure, Zimmer and company in a revenge mode from last year but I'm staying with the prime time coaching king - Pete Carroll. Seattle the call. |
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12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | 22-28 | Loss | -114 | 16 h 17 m | Show | |
Patriots/Texans 8:20: Patriots' offense should finally step up their game tonight; after all, they face a Romeo Crennel defense that's in the bottom tier in passing yards allowed, red zone defense, 3rd down efficiency to name a few. Without DE Watt (IR), the Texans' struggle to create a pass rush. Overrated Crennel will attempt to blitz forcing man coverage and QB Brady will pick the weak Texans' secondary apart. Sure, the Patriots had some sickness this week but should be up to speed tonight. And they'll get back a few receivers (Sanu & Dorsett) for Brady. New England has virtually owned the Texans and Belichick loves going against his old former assistants. Patriots' defense should continue to find ways to disrupt offenses and we'll look for them to keep Watson in check. Patriots the call. |
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12-01-19 | 49ers +6 v. Ravens | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
SF/Baltimore 1:00: Baltimore on a big roll with 7 straight wins outscoring foes 135 to 26 in the process. Rams were the latest victim as Wade Phillips' defense looked lost in assignments as Baltimore gashed them with Ingram and Lamar Jackson. And surely the Rams' defensive personnel was a step slow to the speed of Baltimore. Today, SF's #1 defense in terms of total yards allowed and passing yards, has the speed to contain Jackson providing assignment football is coordinated correctly. Based on how SF played mobile QBs this year, and they've faced a few good ones (Wilson, Murray), we'll look for them to do a decent job here. On the other side of the ball, Garoppolo has been in nice rhythm over the last 5 games with 13/4 TD/INT. And TE Kittle should be good to go after resting a few practice days while RB Breida should be back; moreover, T Staley (finger) possibly good to go as well. Furthermore, the SF defense is relatively healthy and the fastest defense Lamar Jackson and company has faced. Armstead and Bosa are nightmares as the bookends. DC Saleh has been dialing up good schemes. We'll look for SF to keep it tight here. |
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12-01-19 | Bucs v. Jaguars +3 | 28-11 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
Bucs/Jaguars 1:00: Last week, Jaguars ran into a vengeful Titans team but should rebound in this spot. Jaguars' QB Foles usually flourishes when the odds are stacked against him. He is now 0-2 in his return to the lineup and questions abound about going back to Minshew III. We'll look for him to torch the Buccaneers' poor secondary which is in the bottom tier of the NFL. On the other hand, Bucs are 0-5 ATS off a SU win and Arians is 1-7 ATS on the road off a division game vs a non-division opponent. Winston putting up big numbers but throwing way too many interceptions. We'll look for Jax to deliver here as a dog. Dog in this series 7-1 ATS. |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers +2.5 | 13-20 | Win | 101 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
Browns/Steelers 1:00: Browns will miss DE Garrett (suspended) more than the Steelers will miss QB Rudolph (fined and benched). Hodges stepped in nicely in place of Rudolph (benched) to deliver the win. Steelers looking to avenge the loss at Cleveland on the 14th. Cleveland hasn't won in Pittsburgh since 2003! I don't like Cleveland laying points here. They're 0-7 ATS after a win of 14+ and just 6-21-1 ATS vs teams above .500. Pittsburgh a sweet 11-1 ATS at home off a division game with revenge against a division opponent. And the Browns are thin at OT with Robinson in concussion protocol. Not good vs a good edge rush team of Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh the call. |
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11-30-19 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +3 | 38-17 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 16 m | Show | |
Wisconsin/Minnesota 3:30: Gophers turning in a magical season and I'm staying on them here. Minnesota beat up the Badgers last year 37-15 at Wisconsin. This year, Minnesota has a better football team across the board. QB Tanner Morgan has been outstanding managing games and has a pair of 1000+ receiving yard receivers in Johnson and Bateman; moreover, the run game consistently cooks with 1000+ yard rusher Rodney Smith. On the other side of the ball, the Golden Gophers possess the 11th ranked defense (yards allowed) and have an outstanding pass defense. The key, of course, is stopping RB Jonathan Taylor. Badgers are on a 1-4 ATS slide and just 5-11 ATS off a SU win. They've failed to cover in 5 of their last 7 November tilts. Gophers 32-16-2 ATS in November and I'm rowing the boat with Fleck and the Gophers. |
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11-30-19 | Wyoming +11 v. Air Force | 6-20 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
Wyoming/Air Force 2:00: Wyoming is an amazing 10-0 ATS in this series. Cowboys' defense plays the run well (2.8 YPC) and we'll look for more assignment defensive football against AF's vaunted triple option. Wyoming the call. |
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11-30-19 | Wake Forest -3.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 30-39 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
WF/Syracuse 12:30: Nothing left to play for but pride for Syracuse. An underachiever this year at 4-7 and home for the holidays. On the other hand, WF overachieved this year and going bowling. Morever, Clawson and his boys are out to avenge last year's 41-24 home shellacking. This season, boasts the 17th ranked offense in the nation and should move the ball up and down the swiss cheese Syracuse defense (111th ranked). Offensively, Syracuse has had QB problems all season. Tommy Devito did not live up to expectations; of course, he had big shoes to fill with Dungey (Browns) leaving. WF usually wins against losing teams and should deliver here. |
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11-30-19 | Ohio State -8 v. Michigan | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
OSU/Mich Noon: Michigan is at their best this season at home (6-0 SU) but still not talented enough to win this one. OSU is on a 16-2 SU run in this series and Harbaugh is 0-4 (2-2 ATS) vs them. OSU has Heisman trophy candidates (QB Fields and DE Young ) on both sides of the ball. Throw in a top rated defense and a punishing offensive line with an underrated RB Dobbins and outstanding wide-outs. Last week, OSU made costly errors (fumbling on Penn State's one yard line) to keep from covering. Today, look for total focus as the Buckeyes roll. |
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11-29-19 | Virginia Tech -2.5 v. Virginia | 30-39 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 48 m | Show | |
Virginia Tech/Virginia Noon: If this game was played early in the season, Virginia would have the edge and would be my undisputed selection; however, Virginia is a money burning 4-19 SU in their last 2 games of the year. The Cavaliers AD did them a favor this time, however, scheduling lightweight Liberty last week after their bye week. Today, the Hokies are a significant upgrade for them. VTech has compiled a sweet 6-1 SU/ATS run ever since QB Hooker has been inserted in as the starter. He has not thrown an interception. His counterpart - Perkins - has been very sharp too; however, since well loved veteran DC Bud Foster announced that this will be his last year coaching, his defense has been lights out; as a matter of fact, they're coming off 2 straight shutouts! Virginia's defense has had some key injuries including star C Hall (ankle) and that will be trouble against Fuente's bunch who has his run and pass game cooking. VTech 5-2 ATS at Virginia and I'm rolling with the Hokies. |
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11-29-19 | Miami-OH +3.5 v. Ball State | 27-41 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
Miami OH/Ball State Noon: On paper, it appears Ball State has a significant edge with QB Drew Plitt passing for big numbers while leading the offense to 34.3 PPG! However, the Cardinals' defense is too much in a giving mode and I'm not buying in. Miami OH has a sluggish offense but do play sound defense. They've found ways to win 7 games this season and I'm staying on them here. Redhawks have covered 13 of the last 16 conference games, and 4-1 ATS in Muncie; furthermore, they're 6-1 ATS in November. Ball State a sluggish 3-13 ATS at home vs teams above .500. Miami OH the call. |
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11-28-19 | Saints -6.5 v. Falcons | 26-18 | Win | 100 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
11-28-19 | Bills +7 v. Cowboys | 26-15 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
11-28-19 | Bears -4.5 v. Lions | 24-20 | Loss | -117 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
11-27-19 | Magic v. Cavs +1.5 | 116-104 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 60 m | Show | |
Magic/Cavs 7:05: Orlando has not won a game on the road this season (0-7 SU) and should not be laying anything as a traveler; especially without Vucevic (ankle) and even Gordon (ankle). Cavaliers' Clarkson and Sexton buying into Beilein's system and this should be a good test for them. And with Nance Jr. filling in well for Love (back), we'll look for the Cavaliers to notch a home win. Cavaliers 20-7-1 ATS vs team below .400. Cav's 2-0 SU at home in this series. With the dog at 7-1 ATS in this series, grab the Cavaliers. |
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11-27-19 | Dayton v. Kansas -3.5 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
Dayton/Kansas 5:00: Dayton a dangerous team with Obi Toppin shooting an astounding 72.3% from the field and can knock down the 3. However, Kansas can offset his effort with big man Azubuike. And Kansas has a better balanced backcourt led by Dotson. Kansas defense much more sound and that ultimately will be the decision maker. Self is a successful tournament coach whereas his counterpart - Grant - never got his teams to the NCAA Sweet 16. Kansas the call. |
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11-27-19 | Dayton v. Kansas OVER 147 | 84-90 | Win | 100 | 1 h 33 m | Show | |
Dayton/Kansas 5:00: Dayton is the #1 FG% team in the nation shooting a ridiculous 56%. And they've taken on some pretty stiff competition. But defensively, they rank a dismal 282 in the land. Kansas has the talent to match points and can run the floor with the best of them. Kansas 4-1 O/U vs Atlantic 10 whereas Dayton 11-1 O/U in non-conference play. Over the call. |
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11-26-19 | Clippers v. Mavs +2 | 114-99 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
11-26-19 | Western Michigan -8.5 v. Northern Illinois | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Western Michigan/N. Illinois 7:00: Western Michigan has a chance to represent the MAC West in MAC Championship with a win here; therefore, much to play for. As for Northern Illinois, playing for pride; however, not much shown this season in comparison to yesteryear. The Huskies had a nice run in MAC contention and bowl games up until this season under new HC Hammock. He's taken this team a step backwards. N Illinois riddled with mistakes (-7 turnover margin) sloppy play and poor decision making. QB Childers, in for starter Bowers (concussion), threw 3 INTs last week and he'll have to go against another opportunistic defense in WM. WM, (+7 turnover margin), should ride their thoroughbred - Bellamy - in the cold Huskie Stadium. WM had an extra week of prep and, because they're bowling and have something to play for, that should pay dividends. And although WM hasn't shown strength on the road, the sparse crowd in DeKalb will have no effect on them here. Huskies just 3-8 ATS after allowing 40+ and 3-13 ATS after a double-digit loss at home. WM the call. |
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11-26-19 | Wichita State v. South Carolina UNDER 132.5 | 70-47 | Win | 100 | 2 h 55 m | Show | |
Wichita State/S. Carolina 6:00: Heavy "under" trends on Wichita State as they're locking down opponents to the tune of 58 PPG. The Shockers have not allowed a team to shoot 40% this season. On the flip side, defensive minded South Carolina is holding foes to 59.4 PPG. Martin's boys are once again hustling defensively but offensively challenged. SC shooting just 42% from the floor and a feeble 27% from 3 point range. On the neutral court in Cancun, we'll look for brick city here. |
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11-26-19 | Wichita State -3.5 v. South Carolina | 70-47 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
11-25-19 | Ravens v. Rams +4 | 45-6 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
Ravens/Rams 8:15: At first glance, Ravens appear to be the call; after all, they're coming off four straight dominating wins. And three of four of those vs very good teams: Seattle/New England/Houston. The press has Lamar Jackson as the front runner for MVP and that isn't far fetched by an stretch. But not so fast. LA Rams' DC Wade Phillips had the fortune of watching film on Jackson gobbling up yardage on the previous opponents and, similar to a pro golfer standing behind a foe as he putts on an undulated green, can use that to formulate a plan of action. Rams have a good run stop unit (#4 allowing 89 YPG) and improving secondary. We'll look for Phillips' defense to find a way to corral Jackson while taking away running lanes he's so accustomed to hit. On the other hand, Rams' offense showed promise last week as Gurley stepped up his game (97 yards on 25 carries). Ravens' defense is 25th vs the run and Gurley can be the gateway to getting QB Goff comfortable in the pocket again. And he may have that tonight with Cooks and Woods back in action; consequently, that should take the pressure off Kupp who can now be that great possession guy again. Rams have been underrated virtually all season and quietly accumulated a 7-3 ATS mark this season. I'll take them here. |
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11-24-19 | Packers +3.5 v. 49ers | 8-37 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Packers/49ers 8:20: Packers coming off a bye this late in the season is a good thing. They're in great position for the playoffs and they get a chance to get their bodies rested and the injured back on the field. GB a sweet 22-12 SU off a bye week and they've covered 3 of 4 on the road this year. And they've had success at SF at 7-2-1 ATS. SF, on the other hand, showing signs of attrition. They've gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Sure, TE Kittle will help Garoppolo tonight, but we'll grab the points in prime time with Aaron Rodgers. Shannahan just 2-10 ATS at home after scoring more than 22 points. GB the call. |
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11-24-19 | Bucs v. Falcons -3.5 | Top | 35-22 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
Bucs/Falcons 1:00: These teams heading into the opposite direction with TB plummeting on an 0-6 ATS slide while the Falcons have reversed course to grab three straight covers including a 2-0 SU/ATS roll in impressive fashion. On comes another NFC South Division rival that is beatable. Falcons' QB Ryan should torch the TB defense that allows an NFL worst 31.3 PPG. On the the other hand, now that the Falcons have found their pass rush, Winston will again be vulnerable. He's thrown 18 INTs this season and fumbled 8X over his last 5 games. Falcons 7-3 ATS after allowing less than 15 points previously. Home team in this series 4-0 ATS while the favorite is 11-5-1 ATS. Falcons the call. |
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11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | 3-34 | Win | 101 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Raiders/Jets 1:00: Raiders getting much praise and sitting well in the AFC West; however, a closer look reveals they've beaten teams with a combined 7-23-1 record. Surely the Jets fall in to the loser category as well but this is a tough spot for Oakland. They have to travel cross country to cold and rainy East Rutherford for an early game - clearly out of their element. Raiders are just 1-3 ATS at MetLife Stadium vs the Jets. Sure, the Jets' offense leaves much to be desired but now that Sam Darnold has gotten back, the Jets are coming off two solid wins with some offensive firepower; moreover, even RB Bell has scored a TD in his last 2 games. And the Jets' defense is no joke. They're improving dramatically. Jets' HC Gase 6-1 ATS at home vs opponent off back-to-back SU wins. We'll take the field goal with the home team. |
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11-24-19 | Panthers v. Saints -9.5 | 31-34 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
Panthers/Saints 1:00: Saints suffered a brief bump in the road on November 10th vs Atlanta; however, bounced back nicely vs TB last week. Meanwhile, Carolina running out of its magic as QB Allen has 3 TDs with 8 INTs over his last 4 games. Won't get easier today vs a stout New Orleans defense that can get after QBs. Allen has been vulnerable to sacks during losing streak. We'll look for Drew Brees to keep it rolling as Michael Thomas continues to break recepeption records and RB Kamara should follow up an impressive return last week with another big game. |
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11-23-19 | Nebraska -6 v. Maryland | 54-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
Nebraska/Maryland 3:30: Both teams struggling but Nebraska still has a chance to go to a bowl if they win out. We'll look for them to get by Maryland which proved it get beat the lightweights but get blown out when faced with a competitive team. Not a fan of Locksley who did nothing when at New Mexico years ago. And his team has not been competitve in his losses, not only losing on the scoreboard but in the stats by a wide margin! On the other hand, Nebraska's HC Frost has his men competitive. They ran the rock well as RB Mills led the way gutting the Wisconsin defense for 7.7 YPC! We'll look for the 'Huskers to clean up their mistakes and cruise in this one. |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M +13 v. Georgia | Top | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
Texas A&M/Georgia 3:30: Georgia now in the #4 spot after getting by Auburn. And they're likely "eating the cheese" as they relish another shot at the National Championship; however, not so fast as Texas A&M is no joke. They're coming off a blowout of South Carolina and usually handle blowout wins well as their 7-2 ATS mark indicates after a 20+ point win. A&M QB Mond has plenty of weapons at his disposal, a sound offensive line as well. Georgia's defense, as good as it is, can be worn down late as indicated last week after Auburn actually outrushed them. A&M HC Fisher can call plays with the best of them. And A&M's defense highly underrated. The Aggies lost all 3 to Top 10 opponents (Clemson/Alabama/Auburn) yet competive in all. Pretty good value here as A&M looks for their signature win. With Georgia just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 homies, we'll grab the points. |
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11-23-19 | Michigan v. Indiana +10 | 39-14 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
Michigan/Indiana 3:30: The jury still out on Michigan when they hit the road vs quality opposition. They got smothered at Wisconsin, did not cover at Illinois, lost SU at Penn State and now enter a dangerous Memorial Stadium in Bloomington where Indiana has covered 4 of 5. And despite a shellacking from Ohio State, the Hoosiers sport a Top 20 defense (yards allowed) and the #12 passing team in the nation behind Peyton Ramsey. Indiana has gone 3-0-1 ATS in this series. With Michigan just 3-8 ATS on the road and Ohio State looming over them next week, I'm taking the points.. |
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11-23-19 | Boston College +21 v. Notre Dame | 7-40 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
Boston College/Notre Dame 2:30: BC on a decent 4-2 ATS run. They need one more win to be bowl eligible and should be competitive here. BC is 20-8 ATS on the road, 5-1 ATS at Notre Dame, and 14-3-1 ATS as a road dog. ND just 3-6 ATS as home chalk and can't be trusted in November at 7-16-1 ATS. BC's QB Grosel finally showing signs of gaining confidence after taking over for injured starter - Brown; of course, he's got a really good RB Dillon and solid TE Hunter to help him. BC offensive line can hold its own (with the exception of Clemson). BC should cover here. |
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11-23-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State -18 | 17-28 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Penn State/OSU Noon: Penn State does have a solid Top 20 defense and an offense that produces 428 YPG. And yes, QB Clifford has a few weapons in RB Journey Brown and WR Hamler; however, don't believe they're offensive line can hold up against the front 7 of OSU, especially now that DE Chase Young returns. OSU is the #1 defense in the nation in yards and points allowed! And offensively, Justin Fields and company may be held in check for a quarter or two but gradually will pull away and assert themselves late for the win and cover. Penn State HC Franklin a shaky 1-13 ATS on the road vs opponents greater than .666 win %; moreover, 1-7-1 ATS as a road dog of less than 25 points. |
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11-22-19 | Colorado State +7 v. Wyoming | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
Colorado State/Wyoming 9:30: Wyoming has struggled since they lost their duel threat QB in September. They're offensive line is also banged up after coming off 2 straight losses. Rams, meanwhile, have gone on a 3-1 SU/ATS run. They lost their QB Hill (ACL) but O'Brien has done a nice job as the backup. Rams are coming off a home loss to Air Force; however, AF triple option difficult to prep for in a week. Rams are 10-2 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. And they're 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road tilts. With the road team at 5-1 ATS in this series, we'll grab the TD with the road team. |
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11-21-19 | Colts +4 v. Texans | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show | |
Colts/Texans 8:20: This one I delayed until knowing if T.Y. Hilton (calf) is good to go. Hilton has been a nightmare to Houston; in 8 games, he's caught 46 passes for 1018 yards and 7 TDs! He remains questionable but based on reports, he should go. Moreover, the Colts are well guided under Reich. Consider this: The Colts are an amazing 10-1 ATS vs teams above .500. QB Brissett stepped in nicely last week and so did backup RB Jonathon Williams behind perhaps the strength of their team - Offensive Line. Texans' defensive front not the same without DE Watt. Texans just 2-8 ATS vs winning teams and not a good home favorite at 1-4 ATS. Moreover, Texans just 2-7 ATS on Thursday compared to Colts 12-4-1 ATS mark. Yes, Watson and Hopkins is a lethal combination but like the way the Colts' defense is playing now. Colts the call. |
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11-21-19 | Blazers v. Bucks -13 | 129-137 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
Blazers/Bucks 8:05: Blazers have not fared well in this series and currently not playing good basketball; consequently, that's a recipe for disaster against one of the hottest teams in the NBA. Blazers' Stotts said, "I liked what I saw" with new addition Carmelo Anthony on the floor. Does he realize they were outscored by 20 when he was on the floor? Without Lillard, Blazers should continue to struggle. On the other hand, Giannis and Bledsoe should continue to light it up. |
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11-20-19 | Toledo v. Buffalo -8 | 30-49 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show | |
Toledo/Buffalo 7:30: Hard to imagine Jason Candle's team getting 8 points against a MAC opponent. But it's true and justified. Based on inability to hang in conference games on the road with turnovers offensively and poor defense, Toledo has been embarrassed on the conference road vs lightweights Bowling Green and, to a lesser degree, Ball State. As for Buffalo, with the exception of an inexplicable breakdown late to Kent State, the Bulls have been a solid play at UB Stadium (13-4 ATS). Tonight, in the November chill of Buffalo, they'll pound the rock with Patterson and Marks. QB Vantrease (6 TDs/1 INT) has done a nice job managing the games in the absence of starter Myers. Ball control and good defense should be enough to deliver tonight for the Bulls who are vying for bowl eligibility with this win. |
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11-19-19 | Suns v. Kings -125 | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 36 m | Show | |
11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5 | 24-17 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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11-17-19 | Bears +7 v. Rams | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 24 m | Show | |
Bears/Rams 8:20: Rams offensive line in tatters and that doesn't bode well against a hungry Bears' front. Goff has succumbed to much pressure this year and it surely won't get easier tonight. He'll be missing one of his key vertical threats in Cooks and RB Gurley still showing signs of lingering injury issues. And defensively, Rams' secondary not what it was a year ago. Rams got shut down in Chicago last season (6-15) and want revenge; however, the numbers don't stack up under McVay: He's 1-4 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a division game. |
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11-17-19 | Texans +5 v. Ravens | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Texans/Ravens 1:00: Texans off a big win in London followed by a bye week should result in money today. Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 bye weeks under O'Brien; moreover, teams off wins in London followed by a bye are a sweet 6-1 ATS. Texans' secondary held up well in London and now had a chance to get healthy. Corners: Conley, Joseph and Roby are good to go and now Hargreaves (acquired from TB) is joining mix. The Texans had extra time to construct a game plan to contain Lamar Jackson. Baltimore overdue to fall and it should come here. Ravens just 1-6 ATS vs the AFC South and sport a poor 1-10 ATS mark off SU/ATS win vs opponent off a double digit SU/ATS win. Furthermore, Ravens 5-12-2 ATS off a SU win of 14+. And remember that Houston has a playmaker of its own in QB Watson who is quietly have an amazing season too: 70% completions/18 TDs/5 INTs. Texans a dangerous dog here. |
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11-17-19 | Bills v. Dolphins +7 | 37-20 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
Bills/Dolphins 1:00: Dolphins have turned it up several notches since early season blowouts; as a matter of fact, Miami has covered 5 straight including 2-0 run SU. They're looking to avenge earlier season loss. With QB Fitzpatrick under center at home, always dangerous getting points. Miami running the rock well and should deliver here. Buffalo showing signs of slippage on a 1-2-1 ATS slide including vs Miami Week 7. |
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11-17-19 | Jets +2.5 v. Redskins | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show | |
Jets/Redskins 1:00: Redskins play like they're throwing in the towel and having a bye week this late in the season won't do them any justice. Redskins 1-7 ATS in their last 8 following a bye. Callahan has given the keys to Haskins to finish the season. That's like throwing a sheep into a wolves den. Haskins clearly not grasping the heavily detailed offense Callahan is known to employ. Jets' defense devours the run (#2) and should be unleashed from all angles on Haskins today. On the other side of the ball, Darnold is a much better quarterback than his counterpart and has a pretty good supporting cast in RB Bell (overdue for a big game vs Redskins' 28th defense vs run) and speedy receivers to work a poor Redskins' defense that doesn't put a whole lot of pressure on QBs. Redskins were outgained 52-18 during their 3 game slide and that gap should widen after today. Jets the call. |
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11-16-19 | Oklahoma v. Baylor +10.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
Oklahoma/Baylor 7:30: Oklahoma has had its share of problems against winning Big 12 teams. Last week we cashed in on Iowa State as a road dog and they were a 2 point conversion away from steeling a SU win. Tonight, it won't get any easier for the Sooners. They're defense has worn down over the course of the season as the 48 and 41 points in back to back weeks indicate. They'll have their hands full with QB Brewer and company who have an experienced offensive line that's plowed backs to 188 YPG (5 YPC); morover, they spread the field as well as anyone in the league with a plethora of athletes. On the other hand, Baylor's defense held its own with some pretty good offenses. Sure, this is the best offense they'll face, but we'll give the edge to the home team in revenge mode. Sooners just 4-9-1 ATS in last 14 road games. Baylor hangs tight. |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota +3 v. Iowa | 19-23 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
11-16-19 | Georgia v. Auburn +3 | 21-14 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
Georgia/Auburn 3:30: Georgia just a victory away from clinching the SEC East but it's not going to be easy. Auburn has taken on a tough schedule and slugged it out with some of the best with just 2 losses - both on road including a 3 point loss and cover at #1 LSU. Sure, Georgia has that awesome defense that hasn't allowed a rush TD all season, and, on the offensive end arguably the best back in the nation in Swift. But keep in mind that Auburn is 18th in the nation in rush TDs and 19th in the nation in rush yards per game (220 YPG). Also keep in mind that the Tigers play the run well (Top 20 run stop unit) and structurally well positioned across the board overall defensively. And yes, they're off a bye week and usually take advantage of it (5-0 ATS). Oh, and they're seeking to avenge last year's 27-10 loss at Georgia. Did I mention that they're 7-0 ATS as dogs with revenge vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins? Auburn the call. |
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11-16-19 | Navy +7.5 v. Notre Dame | 20-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
Navy/Notre Dame 2:30: Navy has given ND lots of problems over the past few decades including at South Bend where the Midshipmen sport an 11-2 ATS mark. Navy is once again a threat after a down 2018. Sure, the line has tightened (+7') but deservedly so. The Navy defense is structurally improved and their offense is back to running like a well oiled machine. FB Carothers is pounding out nearly 10 YPC! And with an extra week to prep for ND, Navy should be ready. On the other hand, ND didn't have a bye week and the triple option is tough to prep for. And not the greatest time to take on Navy. ND HC Kelly a shaky 6-16-1 ATS in November. Navy the call. |
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11-16-19 | Tulane v. Temple +6 | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
Tulane/Temple Noon: Tulane is getting better every year under Fritz and having a great year; however, a bit overvalued to be giving a sound Temple team a near TD on its home field. Temple is coming off a masterful defensive performance against USF. The Owls are 41-17-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards rushing. Sure, Tulane has that explosive offense but keep in mind their QB McMillan accounts for alot of that offense including leading rusher. We'll look for Temple to scheme accordingly and play them tough. Owls 4-1 ATS in last 5 home games and we'll grab points here. |
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11-15-19 | Fresno State +1 v. San Diego State | 7-17 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
11-15-19 | 76ers v. Thunder +3 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
76ers/Thunder 8:05: Thunder has a brief history of responding favorably off a blowout loss of 10+ points at 4-0 ATS. They're also 4-0 ATS on 2 days rest and had time to prep for a 76ers team that probably will be without Embiid (knee soreness). And the 76ers have not had success in Oklahoma City at 1-4 ATS. We'll take the points. |
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic -3.5 | 109-111 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 37 m | Show | |
Spurs/Magic 7:05: Spurs struggling to find their game in a 1-5 SU/ATS funk. Defensively, they're in the bottom tier of the NBA; as a matter of fact, the past three games, they've yielded 135, 113,129 respectively! And Wednesday, they shot a poor 17% from the perimeter in getting blown out in Minnesota. Now they go into a confident Orlando arena where the Magic come off a big win over Philadelphia. Orlando is the #1 defense in the NBA. Sure, they're in the bottom tier offensively, but now learning to translate defensive stops into offensive buckets. Their offense is picking up a bit as Vucevic and Gordon are getting some good support. Even former #1 pick Fultz contributing well. Orlando 7-2 ATS after scoring 100+ and they're 15-7-1 ATS in their last 26 home games. Spurs a money burning 1-11-1 ATS after allowing 125+. Orlando the call. |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | 7-21 | Loss | -116 | 18 h 6 m | Show | |
Steelers/Browns 8:20: Browns have covered 4 of the last 5 in this series but ALL as a dog! Now the Brownies are cast in a role where they've not been good: At home and as a favorite. Browns are a money burning 9-23 ATS at home, 7-19-1 ATS in November, and 1-4 ATS off a SU win. Steelers on a sweet 6-1 ATS run and I'm going to continue to ride them here. Steelers' defense starting to play up to its potential, especially after finding missing piece - S Fitzpatrick - a few games back. We'll look for the Steelers' Heyward, Dupree, Watt to disrupt Mayfield's game. And former Browns' CB Joe Haden is turning back the clock playing great football. Offensively, Rudolph getting the job done while his receiving mates including former college buddy - Washington - turning up their game! Steelers a strong prime time team including 4-0-1 ATS on Thursday; moreover, they're 13-2 ATS off SU/ATS win vs less than .500 division opponent off SU win. Pittsburgh the call. |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina +4 v. Pittsburgh | 27-34 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
NC/Pittsburgh 8:00: Tar Heels 6-0 ATS off a bye and should keep this one tight. The last 3 games in this series tight (combined 7 points victory margin). Tar Heels find a way. |
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11-14-19 | North Carolina v. Pittsburgh UNDER 50 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
North Carolina/Pittsburgh 8:00: This has generally been a high scoring affair between the teams; however, NC's former HC Fedora ran a no huddle offense with limited success putting tremendous pressure on the defense which resulted in a defensive collapse late. This season, Mack Brown has slowed the tempo down allowing brilliant new DC Jay Bateman (adjusted to opposing defenses TDs just 23 PPG) to work magic with his unit. Pittsburgh went to a more wide open offense this year but borderline successful. Pittsburgh's defense, however, is a sack happy bunch that is stingy giving up yards. NC's QB has been sacked frequently this year (3.2 sacks per game!). NC 2-8 O/U on Thursdays. Pittsburgh with heavy "under" trends. |
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11-13-19 | Warriors v. Lakers -8 | 94-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Warriors/Lakers 10:05: Warriors' HC finding out what life in the NBA is without star power. He's got former Laker G Russell as virtually is only weapon now. And the Warriors' defensively are in the bottom tier in the NBA allowing a whopping 122 PPG. They'll continue to take their lumps here vs the rebuilt Lakers. Lakers getting healthier as Rondo back in the fray to add to an already dangerous veteran lineup. |
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11-13-19 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -17 | 3-44 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
Bowling Green/Miami OH 8:00: Miami OH the much better team here. Sure, BG has won four straight in Oxford but not this season. Redhawks have won and covered 4 of their last 5 MAC games and take on a significantly inferior BG team coming off a bye week. Sure, a bye week this late in the season is generally a good thing, for a winning team; however, BG sitting at 3-6 SU on the year with virtually no shot at a bowl game is a bad thing; after all, losing teams in November off a win followed with a bye week are a dismal 2-9 ATS. BG's offense is pedestrian. It centers around running QB Grant Loy who also leads the team in rushing. Loy has 5 TD/7 INT on the season. He faces a pretty good Miami OH defense. In comparison, Miami OH's defense allows nearly 100 yards per game LESS than BG's. Miami OH's QB Gabbert is nothing to rave about but he and his backfield mates should have career numbers against a Falcons' defense that allows 34 PPG! Technically, BG 1-7 ATS vs an opponent off back-to-back SU win (last one as a dog). Miami OH should cruise. |
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11-13-19 | Clippers +2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -104 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Clippers/Rockets 7:35: Leonard not satisfied with an NBA Championship as he's come out of the gate strong along with his mates. Already taking out the Lakers and Raptors, Clippers eyeing another NBA heavyweight and should dispatch them. Houston 0-4 ATS vs teams above .600 while Los Angeles is 5-1 ATS in the same role; as a matter of fact, Houston is 0-4 ATS vs winning teams - period! Clippers have gone 4-1 ATS in Houston and should deliver. |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 47.5 | 42-14 | Loss | -118 | 17 h 8 m | Show | |
Eastern Michigan/Akron 6:00: This game was moved up a few hours due to inclement weather in Akron. Double-digit winds and sleet do not make way for points. Neither does a Zips offense that cranks out a miniscule 10 PPG! Akron has major offensive line concerns. The Zips can't run the football (1.9 YPC) and QB Kato Nelson can't get the ball downfield because he's been sacked a whopping 40X! Akron is 1-5 O/U off a bye week. Eastern Michigan's ground game is not the greatest at 99 YPG and QB Mike Glass III won't have favorable conditions to get the ball to his pretty good receiving corps. We'll look for this one to stay Under. |
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11-11-19 | Raptors +10 v. Clippers | 88-98 | Push | 0 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
11-11-19 | Seahawks +6.5 v. 49ers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Seahawks/49ers 8:15: 49ers clearly look like world beaters at 8-0; however, a closer look reveals weaknesses that Seattle can exploit. 49ers' defense, as good as it is, does allow 4.7 YPC. Seattle's offensive game starts with the run and Seattle has a deep backfield led by Chris Carson (764 yards). And up until now, the best QB the 49ers faced was the Rams' Goff - who isn't having that good of a season. Russell Wilson is playing at MVP caliber and he will show up in Prime Time just like the Prime Time king of coaches - Pete Carroll. And remember, the 49ers' best tackler LB Kwon Alexander (out) will not play; moreover, offensively, SF most likely will be without Garoppolo's favorite target - TE Kittle (knee/ankle). Carroll 10-1 ATS as a dog vs .500 or greater division opponent. And SF has been a money burner off a bye at 0-8 ATS. I like those numbers! |
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11-11-19 | Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Seahawks/49ers 8:15: Both teams have their share of weaknesses defensively and we should see them emerge tonight. Seattle's defense leaves much to be desired vs the run and through the air. Meanwhile, the 49ers' defense is rock solid but allows lots of yardage on the ground; consequently, that should ignite a Seahawks' offense that thrives on play action with Wilson. We'll look for a night with explosive plays. Seahawks 13-5 O/U in their last 18 games. They're 8-2 O/U on the road vs a team .500 or greater. SF has gone Over in 8 of their last 11 against winning teams. And this series has gone "over" in 5 of the last 7 . "Over" it is. |
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11-10-19 | Panthers v. Packers -4.5 | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
Panthers/Packers 4:25: Packers were overdue for a stinker and it hit last week at Los Angeles. Today, look for the Packers to bounce back strong in this spot. Carolina has been winning - on a 3-1 SU/ATS run but not confirmed in out-gaining opponents. They've been beaten in the stats in their last 4 games. It will be difficult for them to create turnovers and stay in this one at Lambeau Field where Rodgers and company should lock in. Carolina's defense has allowed 9 rush TDs over that stretch and that should allow RBs Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams to get rolling. GB defense needs to step up and should turn it up a notch on Carolina's QB Allen. |
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11-10-19 | Rams v. Steelers +4.5 | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
Rams/Steelers 4:25: Going to be tough for fair weathered Rams to go into Heinz Field in November and grab a win. Sure, Rams have been road warriors but catching a surging Pittsburgh team that's dangerous in November (74-45 SU). Rams have a long history of struggling in November (43-71 SU) and won't have an easy time here. They're coming off wins over lightweights Atlanta and Cincinnati. Today, grinding out those points will be difficult to come by against a surging Pittsburgh defense. |
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11-10-19 | Bills +3 v. Browns | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
Bills/Browns 1:00: Browns have failed to cover at home (0-3 ATS) and on a dismal 0-4 ATS slide. Hard to lay points with a team in the lower echelon of the league in points scored (25th) and points allowed (23rd). Sure, the Bills have compiled a winning record against losing teams but they didn't make the schedule. And remember, Bills traded punches toe to toe with NE covering the number. Bills have the #3 defense in the NFL in terms of yielding yardage. Technically, Browns a poor 1-8 ATS in their last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Bills 4-1 ATS in this series and should make a game of it. |
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11-10-19 | Lions v. Bears -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Detroit/Bears 1:00: Lou Holtz once said, "You're never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you're never as bad as they say when you lose." The Bears were over-hyped in the pre-season coming off a spectacular 2018; this year, the media is ripping them a new ass and that finally brings some value back to Chicago. Trubisky overdue for a quality game and it should come here; after all, Detroit has the 30th ranked pass defense, allowed 400+ yards in 5 of 8 games this season. Bears' RB Montgomery starting to pick up his game. We'll look for Allen Robinson and RB Cohen to turn up their games a few notches here. On the other hand, Chicago still has a pretty good defense. Bears 3-1-1 ATS last 5 at home in this series and should deliver. |
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11-09-19 | Iowa State +15 v. Oklahoma | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
Iowa State/Oklahoma 8:00: Iowa State used to be the whipping boy for Oklahoma before Matt Campbell got there. To think the Sooners were 73-5-2 SU in the history of this series with routine blowouts for years. Enter Matt Campbell and the Cyclones' culture has changed. Campbell is 3-0 ATS the Sooners including the amazing 38-31 outright as a 31 POINT DOG in Norman in 2017! Campbell still is equipped with enough weaponry to be more than competitive tonight. QB Brock Purdy not as flashy as Hurts but every bit as tough a competitor. he's got a great TE to go to in Kolar, solid steady receivers and an emerging freshman RB in Breece Hall. Defensively, Cyclones every bit as solid as Oklahoma. And remember, Cyclones have out-gained every opponent this season except Baylor (-6). Iowa State 7-0 ATS as a dog off a SU/ATS loss and dangerous here. |
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11-09-19 | LSU v. Alabama -5.5 | 46-41 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
LSU/Alabama 3:30: Books need Alabama after the 'Tide opened at -7 and was bid down to 5'. We'll grab the 'Tide here. Orgeron may finally have an offense at LSU but he's a ATS bust as a head coach going 11-23 SU vs winning SEC teams in his career. Sure QB Burrow is putting up record numbers and has the usual LSU stud receivers to go to; however, remember what Alabama did to them last year AT Tiger Stadium - a 29-0 whitewash. Alabama's reloaded and Tagovailoa (ankle) has good movement in practice. And as good as LSU's receivers are, Alabama's Waddle, Smith and a virtually uncoverable Jeudy are nearly impossible to keep from the end zone. Alabama is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series and a solid 7-2 ATS off a bye. Tide rolls. |
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11-09-19 | Stanford -3 v. Colorado | 13-16 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
Stanford/Colorado 3:00: Stanford does not have its best team this season but one thing about David Shaw's Cardinal is they get better as the season progresses. Shaw 25-7 SU in November; moreover, he and his boys usually dispatch the weak sisters of the PAC 12 this time of year. They're 18-7-2 ATS vs teams below .500 and 10-1 ATS vs less than .666 opponent off a SU/ATS loss. With QB Costello back in the fray and looking to guide his team to bowl eligibility with a few more wins, Cardinal is the way to go here. Colorado is a fade for they're 0-8-1 ATS in November and headed down another inglorious free-fall. |
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11-09-19 | Penn State v. Minnesota +7 | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Penn State/Minnesota Noon: #17 ranked Minnesota can possibly vault to a single digit ranking with a signature win vs #5 Penn State. P.J. Fleck has done an amazing job developing this program as the Gophers attempt to stay undefeated. RB Rodney Smith sets the tone for the Minnesota offense behind a solid offensive line. It won't be easy vs the #2 rush defense in the nation; however, if there is a small weakness Minnesota can exploit, it is Penn State's secondary. Gopher's underrated QB Tanner Morgan has the ability to stretch the field and he's accurate. On the other hand, Penn State is every bit as dangerous as their #5 ranking suggests. Their TE Freiermuth is as good as they get. But Minnesota's defense is rock solid and plays the pass well (#9 in FBS). Antoine Winfield Jr. who has the genes of his old man who played forever in the NFL, is a ball hawking (5 INTs) stud to lead a dangerous secondary. Minnesota gets the edge at home here. Penn State is incredibly consistently inconsistent off ATS covers at 1-7 ATS. Minnesota the call. |
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11-09-19 | Vanderbilt +27 v. Florida | 0-56 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
Vanderbilt/Fla Noon: Vanderbilt is a pathetic excuse for an SEC team; nevertheless, they should cover here. They're 4-1 ATS in Florida and catching the Gators at a bad time. Florida has been through SEC's murderer's row taking on the likes of Auburn, LSU, S. Carolina and last week dropping to Georgia. Sure, Florida will pound the crap out the poor run stop unit of Vandy and get in the win column but don't believe they'll cover the inflated number. Vandy's had some recent pathetic teams under Mason yet managed to keep the losing margins tight to the tune of 2, 7, 14 and 10 the last 4 years. Fla is just 2-7 ATS off SU losses and 4-10 ATS in November. Vanderbilt the call. |
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11-07-19 | Heat +1.5 v. Suns | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show | |
Heat/Suns 9:05: Suns a perfect 7-0 ATS but the money flow should come to a screeching halt here. Devin Booker has been playing out of his mind averaging 26 PPG and Monday dropped 40 on Philadelphia. We'll look for him to run out of gas as cagey coach Spoelstra will find a way to slow him down and force the other average shooting Suns to beat them. Miami, coming off a loss at Denver, is 5-2 SU too. The Heat have gone 16-2 SU in this series. Sure, Nunn is struggling but Miami is well balanced with Butler and Winslow easily able to catch fire. Miami the call. |
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11-07-19 | Chargers v. Raiders | 24-26 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Chargers/Raiders 8:20: Chargers' QB Rivers is a sweet 9-4 at Oakland Coliseum where he's thrown for 1,217 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 INT. He should torch an Oakland pass defense in the bottom tier of the NFL allowing 300 yards per game; at the same time, LA has gotten their run game cooking with Gordon grinding out 80 yards last week vs the Packers. Gordon has hit 4 straight games of 120+ vs Oakland! Sure, Raiders' offense cooking but liked how the Chargers got after Rodgers and the Packers Sunday. Bosa and Ingram are menacing on the edge and the Raiders' offensive line is hurting. Chargers 4-0 ATS in prime time and 4-0 ATS in Oakland. Chargers the call. |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 41 m | Show | |
Miami OH/Ohio U 8:00: Miami Ohio's defense keeps them in games but their offense (123rd in FBS) has been dreadful. QB Gabbert has completed just 53% of his passes with 5 TD/5 INT. Run game is respectable and that is what they'll lean on tonight against a Bobcat run-stop-unit that has trouble stopping the run; however, Ohio U defense will surely adjust accordingly to take away Miami's main threat -RB Shelton who cut loose for 148 yards on 14 carries at Kent State prior to their bye. A side note - Kent State defense is at the bottom tier in the FBS. Ohio U has a ground game with a deep backfield. We'll look for the Bobcats to be focused tonight; after all, they're in a revenge mode (30-28 LY) and flourish off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU/ATS win at 11-0 ATS. They're also 6-0 ATS at home off a SU dog win. With the favorite and home team at 3-1-1 ATS in this series, Ohio U the call. |
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11-06-19 | Knicks v. Pistons -3.5 | 102-122 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show | |
Knicks/Pistons 7:05: Even with all the Pistons injury problems, they should deliver here. Knicks still have a dreadful offense (29th in NBA @ 99.6 PPG) and Barrett hitting a stretch of 17 of 48 from floor. Detroit getting good backcourt work from reserves Kennard and Brown. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in this series. Defensive minded HC Casey should find a way to keep NY's offense stagnant. Detroit 8-2 ATS at home vs teams with winning % less than .400. We'll lay a few buckets with Detroit, eager to get back in the win column. |
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11-05-19 | Lakers -7 v. Bulls | 118-112 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
11-05-19 | Ball State v. Western Michigan OVER 63.5 | 31-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
Ball State/Western Michigan 8:00: Both teams have strong ground games yet both can't stop the run. WM run stop unit allows a generous 171 YPG whereas BS allows 161. Competent QBs, strong run games, and experienced offensive lines make way for an "over". This series has gone 4-1 O/U in its last 5 meetings. Broncos 6-0 O/U off a bye week. Ball State 6-1 O/U in November. Over it is. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | 37-18 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 52 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Giants 8:15: Heavy Dallas supporters for this one but we'll take the touchdown with the home team. Cowboys not a great prime time team and struggle on MNF (4-10 ATS). Giants are seeking to avenge their opening day loss and should be competitive here. Giants' QB Daniel Jones now at the helm and showing signs of maturity as the season progresses. And he has speedster Slayton and a healthy RB Barkley will surely help. Cowboys' pass defense (9th) leaves much to be desired. And linebacker depth thinned with Vander Esch (neck) on the mend. He covers lots of ground on pass plays. Defensively for the Giants, they have their flaws; however, secondary playmakers Peppers and Bethea can make plays; moreover, the Giants have 22 sacks on the year and add Leonard Williams (ready to go). We'll look for NY to hang tough here. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants OVER 48 | 37-18 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show | |