Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-03-19 | Packers -3.5 v. Chargers | 11-26 | Loss | -102 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
Packers/Chargers 4:25: Packers rolling and Aaron Rodgers' favorite target Davante Adams should be back today. Chargers barely eked out a win last week at Chicago and come home to a city (Carson) where they get little fan support; as a matter of fact, there will be more GB fans in this stadium than Chargers' supporters. GB 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games. Chargers' run game (69 YPG) can't get going even with Gordon back. And Chargers will have to adapt to new OC after Whisenhunt let go earlier this week. Technically, Chargers 2-10 ATS as a home dog of more than 3 points vs an opponent off SU/ATS win. |
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11-03-19 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | 24-31 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
11-03-19 | Bears +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 14-22 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Bears/Eagles 1:00: Revenge spot for Chicago, which is stewing about last season's playoff last second FG doink. Bears still haven't corrected the doinks (FG miss in last seconds last week) but do remain very competitive under competent HC Nagy. Bears' QB Trubisky starting to gather confidence, especially since rookie RB Montgomery grinding out yardage. And WR Allen Robinson II continues to shine. Remember, he had a huge day vs Philadelphia last January. And Philadelphia's pass defense (21st in NFL) leaves much to be desired. On the other hand, Chicago's defense still strong under new DC Pagano. Technically, Bears 5-0 ATS vs opponent off SU dog win. And they're 18-4 ATS before Detroit. Eagles' HC Pederson just 1-6 ATS at .500 or greater off non-division game vs opponent off back to back SU losses. Bears get er done. |
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11-03-19 | Texans v. Jaguars +1.5 | 26-3 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 1 m | Show | |
Houston/Jacksonville 9:30 am: This one is going off early in London. Should not be a problem for Jacksonville; after all, they've done this trip for 4 straight years going 3-1 in the process including a competitive loss. As for Houston, their first trip here. it will be a difficult trip for the Texans who come here banged up - secondary still on the mend, WR Fuller (hamstring) out, J.J. Watt (season ending pec tear). Yes, QB Watson is magical but only so much magic he can do on his own. His offensive line is hobbling and that doesn't bode well for a dominant d-line of the Jaguars and collectively as a team ranked #3 in the NFL in sacks. On the other hand, Jag's QB Minshew II showing magic of his own. And he's got a run game with Fournette to help aid his game. Dog in this series 10-4 and we'll look for Jacksonville to exact revenge from 9/15. |
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11-02-19 | Virginia v. North Carolina -1.5 | 38-31 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
Virginia/North Carolina 7:30: NC's HC Mack Brown doing a great job in putting the Tar Heels in position to win. They should do well here behind freshman QB Howell who has the surrounding talent to deliver at home. NC grinding out 434 yards of offense per game and making big plays defensively. That doesn't bode well for Virginia, which is struggling on the road (1-3) primarily due to turnovers (10). Cavaliers 1-4 ATS in November and will fade them here. |
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11-02-19 | Georgia -6 v. Florida | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Georgia/Florida 3:30: Despite double-revenge motive for Florida, I'm staying with Georgia here. Gators, and surely reserve QB Trask, will face the best defense in the SEC today. Bulldogs have allowed 267 YPG or 4.3 Yards Per Play. Georgia takes away the run game and makes it extremely difficult to pass downfield. On the other hand, Georgia's run game has continued to roll. They're pounding out 238 Yards Per Game behind RB Swift. In this series, the team that has won the run game has won the game. Veteran QB Fromm should be the benefactor behind Swift to keep the vulture like Florida pass rush unit at bay. Favorite in this series 4-0 ATS and we'll roll with Georgia. |
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11-02-19 | Akron v. Bowling Green -3.5 | 6-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Akron/Bowling Green 2:00: The Zips flat out cannot run the football ranked dead last in the nation in rush yards per game (56); consequently, QB Nelson under constant duress. BG is not better but has a run game and that will help at home. Akron's defense is pretty bad (36 PPG allowed). The Zips have yet to cover a game this season and it will be another stiff challenge here; after all, they're 1-10 ATS in the last 11 meetings vs BG. |
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11-02-19 | Nebraska -3.5 v. Purdue | 27-31 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 12 m | Show | |
11-02-19 | NC State v. Wake Forest -7.5 | 10-44 | Win | 103 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
11-01-19 | Bucks -4.5 v. Magic | 123-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
10-31-19 | 49ers -10 v. Cardinals | 28-25 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
San Francisco/Arizona 8:20: SF has been Arizona's whipping boy for some time. The 49ers haven't beaten Arizona since Jim Harbaugh was patrolling the sidelines back in 2014. This year, however, the 49ers have what it takes to deliver. Their defense is allowing a meager 224 YPG on just 4.4 yards per play! Arizona's QB Murray is doing a decent job taking care of the football but is limited in weaponry tonight. With RBs' Johnson and Edmonds out, the Cardinals had to grab Drake from Miami. 49ers a bit banged up but Garoppolo starting to get in rhythm and Arizona defense leaves much to be desired. SF 9-0 ATS in Games 9-12 on the road off a SU win vs a less than .500 opponent off a non-division game. SF the call. |
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10-30-19 | Nationals +129 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 129 | 4 h 10 m | Show | |
Washington/Houston 8:08: Bizarre road dominated series but not so bizarre if take a closer look. Washington put their best pitchers on the mound to start at Minute Maid: Scherzer and Strasburg and will put Scherzer back on tonight. Scherzer has been money in post season: Threw a lights out inning at Los Angeles on the 4th. Then allowed just 1 run over the Dodgers in 7 innings for a win on the 12th. He then shut down the Cardinals on the 12th with 11 strikeouts and allowed only 1 hit over 7 innings. And on the 22nd did enough for the win at Houston. He had neck spasms that were problematic as of just a few days ago but he's feeling it tonight. And consider this: Washington is 22-8 vs Houston over their last 30 games including a mind boggling 11-1 at Minute Maid Park! Greinke is solid but had his share of shaky moments throughout the post-season. We'll grab the Nationals to deliver the goods again. |
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10-29-19 | Nationals +163 v. Astros | 7-2 | Win | 163 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
10-29-19 | Hawks +8 v. Heat | 97-112 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 52 m | Show | |
Atlanta/Miami 7:35: Good value with the Hawks after coming up short yesterday at home vs Philly. Hawks are now 3-0 ATS on the year and should cover here in Miami; after all, Hawks have covered 4 straight in this series and 3-0 ATS in Miami. A short flight shouldn't be troublesome for the Hawks. Too early to get fatigued in back-to-back games. Hawks are 4-1 ATS unrested as well. Sure, the Heat will unleash Jimmy Butler for his season debut. But the chemistry could be altered a bit. Heat rookie Nunn is lighting it up. Anyway, Heat just 1-5 ATS vs a team with a winning road record and they've had trouble on Tuesday (2-9 ATS). We'll look for Young and company to hang around. |
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10-27-19 | Panthers v. 49ers -4.5 | 13-51 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
Panthers/49ers 4:05: A defense and a ground game in the top tier of the NFL usually equates with success in the standings. Such be the case of the 6-0 49ers which has choked out all of its opponents. Carolina's QB Allen has been outstanding but will face his toughest test to date: Nick Bosa and Dee Ford have been nightmares for the opposition. If there is a defense which can contain McCaffrey, this is the unit. Carolina overdue to fall flat and it should come here. Panthers a dismal 1-7 ATS rested vs a .500 or greater team. |
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10-27-19 | Eagles v. Bills UNDER 41 | 31-13 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
Eagles/Bills 1:00: Inclement weather should be a driving force coupled with a pair of teams with limited offensive firepower. Rain is forecasted along with 21 MPH wins in Orchard Park. Bills aren't a juggernaut offensively (22nd scoring points) but do bring the 3rd ranked defense to the field. Philadelphia is struggling offensively (23rd) and turnovers have been an issue. This series is 1-4 O/U in its last 5 meetings and Bills are on a 1-5 O/U run. Eagles 2-5 O/U on the road. "Under" the call. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos v. Colts -4.5 | 13-15 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
Broncos/Colts 1:00: Frank Reich doing an amazing job with the Colts, who have been ultra competitive in every game this year. Colts now on a 2-0 SU/ATS run and taking on a Broncos team that got buried 30-6 on their home field on the 17th. Denver has a recent history of shaking off those bad defeats going 0-5 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. Broncos 1-6 ATS in Indy and don't possess enough offense to do damage to a Colts' defense which got back All-Pro LB Leonard last week. Underrated QB Brissett getting it done now that Hilton is back in the fray. Colts the call. |
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10-27-19 | Bengals v. Rams -11 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Bengals/Rams 1:00: Rams got it going last week in a route at Atlanta. Newly acquired Jalen Ramsey made an immediate impact virtually locking down Julio Jones. Today, he'll have an even easier time without A.J. Green (ankle). Now we know why QB Dalton was respectable when Green was tearing up the field since 2011. Bengals now the worst rush team in the NFL with an offensive line that can't get Mixon going this season; moreover, they're also the worst defensive team in terms of total yards and rushing yards. That's a bad combination against a heating up Rams team that's finding its game. McVay should teach his protégé Zac Taylor a serious lesson in London today. McVay 8-2 ATS as a favorite vs less than .500 team off non-division game. |
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10-27-19 | Giants +7 v. Lions | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Giants/Lions 1:00: Lions have been a good underdog play virtually all season at 4-1 ATS. But now they're cast in the favorite role in which they struggle. 0-1 in that role this season as a 2' favorite at Arizona. And Patricia is a dismal 1-5 ATS at home vs the NFC. Lions in the bottom tier of the NFL defensively (31st) in terms of yards allowed and passing yards (30th). And trading S Diggs didn't sit over well with teammates. Moreover, offensively the loss of Kerryon Johnson (knee) won't help ward off the rush of Stafford - who's been doing a good job making plays. Today, interception prone Daniel Jones should find a rhythm with Barkley back in action (72 rush last week). Giants have covered 7 of their last 9 road tilts and HC Shurmur is at his best off a home game at 8-2 ATS. Giants the call. |
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10-26-19 | South Florida v. East Carolina +2 | 45-20 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
S. Fla/East Carolina 3:45: Mike Houston gradually turning around East Carolina after a disastrous two years under Scottie Montgomery. Houston has the Pirates on a 3-0 ATS run and brimming with confidence with a strong second half comeback (cover) at UCF last week. We'll look for the Pirates to finally get a win in this series. |
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10-26-19 | Auburn +11 v. LSU | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Auburn/LSU 3:30: Now that Malzahn took over play calling duties (started in bowl game last year), his offense is cooking; especially in the run game where they're 11th in the nation running the rock. And QB Nix is doing a solid job managing the game. We'll look for Auburn to eat clock and gain yards to keep the explosive LSU offense off the field. Auburn also sports a 23 ranked defense. Auburn a sweet 7-0 ATS as dog of 11 or less with revenge vs an opponent off back to back SU wins. Auburn it is. |
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10-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -4 | 16-12 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
Miami-Fla/Pittsburgh Noon: Miami Fla off embarrassing loss at home to rebuilding Georgia Tech. Today, it won't get easier as the Panthers seeking to avenge last season's 24-3 loss. Panthers' HC Narduzzi is finally shaping his defense to what he had at Michigan State as a DC years ago. Pittsburgh leads the FBS in sacks (36) and that doesn't bode well for the Hurricanes. Miami-Fla has uncertainty at QB with Perry and Jarren Williams both nursing shoulder injuries; moreover, the 'Canes have yielded 31 sacks which is the 4th most in the FBS. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-26-19 | Liberty -7.5 v. Rutgers | 34-44 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
Liberty/Rutgers Noon: At first glance, how can a team that is just in its second year of FBS play be laying 7' points on the road to a Big Ten team? Then you look at the numbers and see why. Rutgers has been mauled by all of its conference opponents, the starting QB and top WR both red-shirted and the HC was dismissed. Rutgers ranks dead last in scoring at 11.1 PPG. On the other hand, Liberty's HC Freeze, who did great things for Ole Miss from 2012 - 16. He's got a solid offensive unit. Defensively, the Flames are struggling but do get back their corners Faulk and Dabney to shore up the secondary this week. Liberty the call. |
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10-25-19 | Astros v. Nationals +133 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
Astros/Nationals 8:07: Staying on the red hot Nationals who are feeling it after a thorough blasting in Houston Tuesday night. It's not going to get easier on the Astros tonight. They face another rock solid post-season pitcher in Anibal Sanchez. Sanchez has plenty of playoff experience with a dazzling 2.56 ERA 1.05 WHIP and 60 strike outs over 56 innings of work; moreover, Sanchez was 4 outs away from a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLCS in a 2-0 win over St. Louis. Astros counter with Zach Greinke who is fading down the stretch. Greinke sports a bloated 6.43 ERA over his last 3 post-season outings. That's not boding well facing a sizzling Washington lineup. Nationals are now on an amazing 42-16 roll including 8 straight playoff wins. Not getting off the Nationals train here. |
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10-24-19 | Redskins v. Vikings -16 | 9-19 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
Redskins/Vikings 8:20: Washington's interim HC Callahan excessively detail oriented but the players at this stage of the season thinking way too much and it's slowing them down. Vikings playing fast and hard and improving on both sides of the ball; moreover, QB Cousins in rhythm with his multitude of dangerous weaponry. Washington defense horrible and it should get ugly. Vikings 7-1 ATS as a home favorite of more than 3 points off back-to-back wins. |
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10-23-19 | Nationals +166 v. Astros | 12-3 | Win | 166 | 18 h 15 m | Show | |
Nationals/Astros 8:07: Gladly take Strasburg and the hot hitting Nationals who still haven't cooled off after their stunning NLCS win over St. Louis. Washington a stunning 40-16 run and still hot! Strasburg has been magical this post-season with 33 strike outs with only 1 walk. His counterpart, Verlander is 0-4 with a bloated 5.67 ERA in WS action (Detroit and Houston); moreover, he's coming in to this one with a lofty 5.16 ERA this post-season. Nationals the call. |
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10-23-19 | Celtics +5 v. 76ers | 93-107 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Celtics/76ers 7:35: Like this matchup despite the height differential favoring Philadelphia. Of course, Sixers are now in control of Horford to pair with Embiid and Simmons. But Celtics have a bit of speed and shooting advantage with newly acquired Walker (formerly New Orleans), Haywood, Tatum and Brown. Jury will be out on Josh Richardson replacing J.J. Redick. Celtics 5-1 ATS at Philadelphia and like them here. |
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10-21-19 | Patriots -9 v. Jets | 33-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
Patriots/Jets 8:15: Could make a case for NY here. QB Darnold gave life to the dormant Jets' offense last week in their 24-22 home win vs Dallas. And the Jets have covered 5 of the last 6 at home vs NE; moreover, Pro-Bowl LB Moseley (groin) should be good to go. Nevertheless, NE had a bit extra time for this one and Belichick is a dangerous 9-2 ATS as a road favorite with extended rest. Moreover, Jets have gotten outgained in yardage in every game this year including their win vs Dallas. Their run game with Bell is not working for Bell doesn't have the horses to delay and wait for blocking like he did in Pittsburgh. Belichick has taken total control of the defense this year and the Patriots are #1 in virtually every defensive category. Can't see Darnold shredding a well disciplined secondary without a significant run game; moreover, his top receiver Robby Anderson will be locked on CB Gilmore whom has virtually owned Anderson. We'll look for QB Brady to shine when the lights are brightest - as usual. |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | 10-37 | Loss | -114 | 139 h 11 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Ravens v. Seahawks OVER 48 | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 60 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons +3 | 37-10 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
10-20-19 | Vikings v. Lions +2.5 | 42-30 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
10-19-19 | Duke +3.5 v. Virginia | 14-48 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
Duke/Virginia 3:30: Duke QB Harris delivering and thankful for run game from Jackson behind a sturdy offensive line. We'll look for the Blue Devils front to hold up against the sack happy Cavaliers. Sure, Virginia has covered 4 straight in this series but Cavaliers' poor offensive line play, has caused a sluggish run game in turn putting QB Perkins under constant duress; as a result: inability to punch it in the end zone could be costly here vs a stout Duke defense. And the loss of CB Bryce Hall (ankle) is a big blow to the Cavaliers. Duke the call. |
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10-19-19 | Tulsa v. Cincinnati -16.5 | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Tulsa/Cincinnati 3:30: Cincinnati not ready to hang with the likes of Ohio State yet but can surely handle the lightweights of the American Athletic. Tulsa is included in the lightweights after two sub-par season under HC Montgomery. The Golden Hurricane is coming off their 2nd straight loss - 45-17 whitewash vs Navy on their home field. Now, they travel to a pretty strong venue - Nippert Stadium where the Bearcats have covered 4 straight. Bearcats have a solid defense and an offense that can make plays behind QB Ridder who has a dangerous target in WR Medaris. Hurricane defense demoralized vs Navy - allowing 388 yards on the ground. Fickell is 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite and we'll roll with him and Cincinnati here. |
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10-19-19 | Temple +9.5 v. SMU | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
10-19-19 | NC State v. Boston College +3.5 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
NC State/BC Noon: This series has been tightly contested in recent years and the Wolfpack were surely not impressive in their last 2 road tilts - blowout losses at West Virginia and Florida State. BC has a solid offensive line (allowed only 3 sacks) to support QB Grosel - who did an admirable job after starter Brown went down at Louisville. BC is 5-1-1 ATS in this series and had an extra week to prepare to avenge last year's 23-28 loss at Raleigh. BC can run the rock with RB Dillon (745 yards) and that will surely help Grosel in play action. NC State still searching for an identity offensively. We'll grab the points with BC which is 18-6 ATS in October and 4-1 ATS following a bye. |
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10-19-19 | Clemson -24 v. Louisville | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
10-18-19 | Marshall +6 v. Florida Atlantic | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
Chiefs/Broncos 8:20: Broncos showing life after 0-4 start with 2 SU wins and covers. They've been competitive in virtually every game and will surely attempt to mimic the success of Indy and Houston; as a matter of fact, throw in Detroit (cover but SU loss) which out rushed the Chiefs substantially. Denver has the run game with Lindsay and Freeman to keep QB Mahomes off the field. The non explosive Broncos will surely attempt to methodically gain ground and eat clock tonight. KC run stop unit in bottom of NFL tier (30th) and the Chiefs' defense is 27th in yards allowed. Denver has faced some respectable defenses already and will face the weakest of the season tonight. We'll look for Flacco to deliver. KC explosive offensively but Denver has tightened the bolts as the season progressed and found their pass rush. Denver a sweet 10-2 ATS on Thursday, especially dangerous as a Thursday Night home dog 5-2 ATS. |
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10-15-19 | Astros v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
10-14-19 | Lions +4 v. Packers | 22-23 | Win | 100 | 16 h 25 m | Show | |
Lions/Packers 8:15: Lions have had the Packers' number lately in this series with 4 straight wins. Detroit coming off a bye week which means TE Hockenson will be available to add to an already dangerous Detroit receiving corps of Marvin Jones and Golladay. And RB Kerryon Johnson, coming off a career day vs KC, should carry the rock plentifully vs a GB run stop unit in the bottom tier of the NFL. Defensively, Lions should have CB Slay back to give QB Rodgers a hard time. Rodgers without his top receiver - Adams (toe). Lions in October are a super 10-1 ATS as an above .500 dog vs an above .500 team with revenge. We'll grab the points. |
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10-13-19 | Steelers +7 v. Chargers | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 19 m | Show | |
Steelers/Chargers 8:20: Chargers now a money burning 1-3-1 ATS and back to their unofficial home in Carson where Steelers' fans may outnumber Chargers' fans. Steelers have covered 3 straight and I'm staying on them here. 3rd string QB Hodges knows the offense and has a solid supporting cast to work a middle of the road defense. Defensively, Steelers have some serious talent and it's a matter of time before they mesh. We'll look for Pitt to hang around. Steelers in October are a dangerous 10-0 ATS as a dog off a division game vs non-division opponent. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-13-19 | Titans +2 v. Broncos | 0-16 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
Titans/Broncos 4:25: I had Denver (+6) as my Top Play last week but I'm fading them here. Titans are predictably unpredictable in a sense that just when you think they've turned the corner and set to begin a win streak, they lay an egg; at the same time, when you write them off after a sluggish performance (like at home vs Buffalo last week) they come back with knock-out power. Expect the latter today. Mariota has taken good care of the rock and RB Henry is overdue for a big game. Denver has yet to win at home and Tennessee is at their best on the road. Titans in October are an impressive 9-2 ATS off a SU loss vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Tennessee the call. |
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10-13-19 | Cowboys -7 v. Jets | 22-24 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Cowboys/Jets 4:25: Cowboys have a tendency to beat up the sub-par teams and we'll jump back on them here. Dallas is 7-1 ATS on the road vs a team with a losing home record. They're also 6-0 ATS in Week 6. Sure, Jets' QB Darnold is back and NY should find some offense; however, Dallas has too many weapons at Prescott's disposal to allow the 24th ranked defense (points allowed) to stop them. Dallas the call. |
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10-13-19 | Seahawks +1 v. Browns | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Seahawks/Browns 1:00: Coaching mismatch as Carroll is a sweet 11-2 ATS as a .500 or greater team vs an opponent off a SU/ATS loss. Browns, coming off a disastrous MNF outing, are a money burning 1-11 ATS after scoring less than 10 pts. On a short week and thin at corner with Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) doubtful.The well rested Seahawks, off a huge Thursday Night win, should have QB Wilson work more magic. He has a solid ground game to work off of too. On the other hand, Mayfield having a tough time with poor line play. Seattle will surely improve on their pass rush and it should come today. Seattle the call. |
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10-12-19 | Navy -1 v. Tulsa | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show | |
10-12-19 | Kent State v. Akron +15 | 26-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
Kent State/Akron 3:30: Quite insulting to the Zips to be underdogs of two touchdowns to their fiercest rival. The Zips have never been a two touchdown underdog on their home field to the Flashes. With the exception of the Rob Ianello years (2010-11), the Zips have always been competitive in this series for the highly coveted Wagon Wheel Trophy. I do realize the Zips run game is crappy; however, Kent State's run stop unit is not exactly a stone wall (allowing 279 yards per game); as a matter of fact, the Badgers' RB Jonathon Taylor thrashed them for record setting numbers including 5 TDs! Sure, it was the Badgers and Akron is far from that caliber. Nonetheless, Zips off a bye week and it's iffy if QB Kato Nelson (shoulder) will return. He was in street clothes Tuesday at practice. I do like 3rd stringer Zach Gibson who went in for ineffective backup Robbie Kelley and went 12 of 16 for 173 yards. He does have some receiving weapons. We'll look for the Zips to hang tight here. |
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10-12-19 | Oklahoma -10 v. Texas | 34-27 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
Oklahoma/Texas Noon: Hard to dismiss Texas HC Herman's record as a dog but not comfortable with Texas here. Sooners have the most explosive offense in the nation led by Heisman favorite - Hurts. Texas defense ranked 104th in the nation and their secondary is thin (injuries). Yes, Ehlinger is a dark-horse Heisman candidate himself; however, Oklahoma brings to the Cotton Bowl a Top 50 defense. And Lincoln Riley remains dangerous as a conference road favorite of less than 14 points against .500 or greater teams. Oklahoma delivers. |
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10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +4.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Memphis/Temple Noon: Rod Carey doing another bang up job to continue Temple's success. Carey, who had great success at Northern Illinois, came over to Philadelphia this season to start the Owls at 4-1. He has some talent to work with as Temple continues to improve its numbers. They're a Top 20 defense and #10 vs the pass which will be vital in stopping the Memphis ground game and QB Brady White. I believe his men are up for the challenge; so far, they've held their last 2 opponents to 5 of 28 on third down. And offensively, the Owls can pound the rock as RB Davis has accumulated 503 yards rushing behind a veteran offensive line. QB Russo has his limitations but makes plays. Memphis just 1-10 ATS on the road vs opponent off a double-digit SU win. Temple's covered four straight in this series and Rod Carey has always been a dangerous conference home dog of a coach. |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -126 | 2-0 | Loss | -126 | 3 h 4 m | Show | |
Washington/St. Louis 8:08: Sanchez had some good post-season starts but not convinced he can go deep into the innings tonight vs a hot hitting Cardinals lineup coming off a shellacking over Atlanta. Cardinals 16-6 after scoring 5+ runs previously. And still concerns in spots in the Washington bullpen. We'll grab Mikolas who did well in G1 of the NLDS with 1 run on 3 hits over 5 innings. Cardinals have won 7 of the last 9 at home in this series. Cardinals the call. |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL UNDER 43.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 4 h 2 m | Show | |
Virginia/Miami-Fla 8:00: This series has gone 1-4 O/U in its last 5. I expect another lower scoring game primarily on account of Miami's QB issues. They're unable to manufacture points consistently and still undecided on who is the starter. As impressive as backup QB Perry coming of the bench to torch V Tech for 400+, he's green in a lot of areas - as exhibited last year vs Virginia. This season, the 'Canes face a Top 10 defense which plays the pass well. On the other hand, defensive minded HC Diaz upset with last week's performance vs V Tech. I expect a better defensive effort tonight. Virginia has offensive line issues - ND ravaged them up front - and Virginia won't have an easy time moving the football. These teams are a combined 4-14 O/U in October. "Under" it is. |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
Giants/Patriots 8:20: Giants covered 5 straight in this series; however, that was in the Eli Manning era when Manning took two Super Bowl wins away from Brady, Belichick and Kraft's trophy case. Daniel Jones enters the new Giants' era and he's guided the Giants to a 2-1 SU/ATS mark. He was awesome against defensive lightweights TB and Washington but struggled vs defensive stalwart Minnesota. Now he has to face the #1 defense in the NFL in points and yardage allowed; moreover, he has to do it at a dominant home field without some of his top weapons and down to his 3rd string RB. Difficult task especially vs Belichick who is 11-0 SU/7-4 ATS against rookie QBs. And let's not forget that the Patriots lead the league in takeaways (12). And throw in that the Giants are 30th in the league defensively. Brady surely overdue to breakout when the lights are shining bright. Technically, Giants' HC Shurmur a dismal 1-7 ATS off a non-division game vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. We'll lay the wood. |
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10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -104 | 13-1 | Loss | -104 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
10-09-19 | Cardinals v. Braves UNDER 7.5 | 13-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 5 m | Show | |
10-07-19 | Browns +5 v. 49ers | 3-31 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Browns/49ers 8:15: Browns proved the stage wasn't too big for them when they mauled the Jets in NY on MNF September 16th. Tonight, we'll look for Cleveland to hang tight with SF. Browns are 4-1 ATS vs NFC competition and even gave the incumbent NFC Champs - LA Rams a bit of trouble September 22nd. Defensively, Browns are in good shape; offensively, they broke out last week in Baltimore as Nick Chubb established a run game. Tonight, another dose of Chubb and the Browns will benefit with the return of Antonio Calloway (suspension). Him or OBJ will be matched with SF's weak link corner Moseley, who is now forced to play opposite Sherman because of injuries in that position. We'll look for Baker Mayfield to be on his game. Technically, Shanahan is just 1-8 ATS at home after scoring more than 22 points; moreover, SF a poor 0-8 ATS off a bye week. Cleveland the call. |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +6 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Broncos/Chargers 4:05: Everyone and their brother finding Denver as a major go-against, especially after latest choke at home vs Jacksonville last week. And after losing Chubb (ACL), life in Denver is bleak, at best. Nevertheless, I like the value with the Broncos here. They've been competitive in their last 3 games and still have some solid veteran stars. QB Flacco still has some juice and some decent skill players including RB Lindsay. Defensively, Broncos are disgusted RB Fournette ran all over them last week. Look for defensive minded HC Fangio to figure things out and give Denver a fighting chance here; after all, Chargers have not displayed elite status this season; moreover, the win over lightweight Miami is surely not a declaration of dominance or winning momentum. Los Angeles is just 11-27-1 ATS at home and just 1-5 ATS at home vs losing teams. Denver controls a 12-4 SU record in this series and is a dangerous dog here. |
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10-06-19 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
Bucs/Saints 1:00: Saints doing an amazing job to keep winning momentum after Brees went down. Bridgewater stepped in and delivered as the Saints reeled off 2 straight against good teams - Seattle and Dallas. Like the Saints here as well. Defensively, Saints' pass defense has been porous but responded well last week. TB's Winston had a monster game last week but he's inconsistent and will throw interceptions. And TB's defensive secondary has been vulnerable for most of the season. Technically, interesting to note that Sean Payton is 33-13-1 ATS following consecutive SU/ATS wins including 23-4-1 ATS vs winning foes. He's also 9-2 ATS off a SU win vs an opponent off a SU dog win. Hard to fade those numbers. Saints deliver. |
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10-06-19 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Panthers | 27-34 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Jaguars/Panthers 1:00: Both teams lost their starting QBs and both flourishing in the process. Carolina's Kyle Allen stepped in and guided his team to victories while Gardner Minshew has been fabulous working his magic as well. I'm going to lean to Jacksonville here behind Minshew. He has Fournette (225 yards rushing last week) and a few more vertical threats in Chark, Westbrook and Conley. Carolina super dependent on McCaffrey (411 rush/218 receptions) to ignite offense. I'm looking for Jacksonville's defense to shake up QB Allen and end his magic. Jaguars the call. |
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10-06-19 | Ravens v. Steelers +3.5 | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
Ravens/Steelers 1:00: Ravens off 2 straight defeats in which defense gave up a ton of points. Now they're going in to Pittsburgh laying points in a historically tightly contested series in which the dog is 7-1-1 ATS; moreover, I can't remember the last time the Ravens were a favorite on the road in this series. Tomlin has been a dangerous dog in his coaching career including 12-1 ATS as a dog vs a .500 or greater opponent. Sure, Pittsburgh is coming off a short week and banged up a bit; however, they'll be up for one of their most fierce rivals. And they have the quality depth on both sides of the ball to stay competitive, especially on their home field. Pittsburgh the call. |
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10-05-19 | Texas v. West Virginia +10.5 | 42-31 | Loss | -109 | 2 h 6 m | Show | |
Texas/West Virginia 3:30: West Virginia heading in right direction with HC Neal Brown. Brown, while with Troy, went 6-0 ATS as a home dog of more than 9 points. He's got Oklahoma transfer Austin Kendall running the show and he's doing a solid job as his offensive line is improving - especially to help establish run game. Texas, meanwhile, having trouble defending the pass (124th in nation) and not good when laying double digits on road. Texas also has Oklahoma on deck and the Longhorns are 1-7 ATS in this situation. |
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10-05-19 | Maryland -13.5 v. Rutgers | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | Utah State +28 v. LSU | 6-42 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
10-05-19 | Iowa +4 v. Michigan | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 35 m | Show | |
10-04-19 | Central Florida -3 v. Cincinnati | 24-27 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 45 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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10-03-19 | Rams v. Seahawks -120 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
Rams/Seahawks 8:20: Seahawks have historically played the Rams tough even when the Rams were at their best last year; as a matter of fact, got swept last year but covered both. Tonight, Seahawks are pretty healthy including OT Duane Brown (practiced Wednesday). Moreover, QB Wilson has a new big target in TE Dissly. And RB Penny should be ready to go to add depth to a an already strong backfield. Rams' defense falling off sharply this year. And offensively, Goff racking up big numbers but mistakes happening with limited run game. Pete Carroll is money in prime time at 26-5-1 SU and 8-1 SU Thursday. Yes, on Seahawks in one of the loudest venues in the NFL. |
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10-02-19 | Rays +124 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 124 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
TB/Oakland 8:09: Gladly take the Rays and Charlie Morton at this price. Morton is a seasoned vet with successful playoff experience (Houston). He was well worth the investment this year for Tampa Bay. TB was 11-5 in his road starts. And he had a strong September at 3-0 with a 2.45 ERA. Manaea is quite the pitcher himself; however, shoulder surgery last year limited him to 5 starts this year. Sure, he was strong in all of them and good for 5 innings, 6 tops. Like the TB bullpen a bit better. TB 8-1 in Game 1 of a series and I'll grab the value with the road team here. |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show | |
Bengals/Steelers 8:15: Both teams struggling to find an identity after losing key starters in the off-season. Steelers reeling after losing QB Big Ben (elbow), WR Antonio Brown (released), RB Bell (traded to Jets). But QB Rudolph has shown promise with a strong outing last week at SF. He has quality weapons in Smith-Schuster, James Washington and Diontae Johnson. Pittsburgh should look to get run game going against one of the bottom feeders of the NFL in run-stop-units. Bengals' defense allowing 169 YPG on nearly 5 YPC! Sure, Pittsburgh's defense isn't worth mentioning among the elite either. They're struggling but have some pretty good young talent including S Fitzpatrick (from Miami). Cincinnati's QB Dalton is putting up big numbers in Zac Taylor's system; however, with superstar A.J. Green (ankle) gone for an extended time, the Bengals thrust Boyd, Tate and speedster Ross into the play-making roll. The only problem is there is no run game (42 YPG on 2.4 YPC) - last in the NFL! Consequently, Pitt defense should tee off on the shaky Bengals' offensive line and make life miserable for Dalton and Mixon. Technically, Steelers an amazing 25-5 SU on MNF including 4-1 ATS run. They're also a super 19-3 ATS when they're less than .500 vs less than .500 division opponent; moreover, a perfect 13-0 ATS as less than .500 favorite vs divisional opponent off a SU loss. Finally, the Bengals have been a whipping boy for the Steelers with Pittsburgh controlling an 18-7-1 ATS mark over the last 26 games in this series. We'll roll with Pittsburgh. |
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09-29-19 | Jaguars +3 v. Broncos | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
Jacksonville/Denver 4:25: Broncos' OC Scangarello not getting it done with Flacco and company. The first year signal caller's offense has generated a just 16, 14 and 16 points over their 3 weeks of work. Jacksonville defense showed improvement the last few weeks defensively, including a strong performance on the 19th vs Tennessee (7 points). We'll look for that dominating pass rush led by Campbell to do damage to immobile Flacco. On the other hand, rookie QB Minshew II proved that his relief appearance at Houston on the 15th was no fluke. He followed up with a strong start against Tennessee. Denver's defense has yet to register a sack or fumble recovery. Fangio was an excellent DC but questionable HC. Technically, Jaguars are 7-0 ATS with rest vs less than .600 opponent. And Marone is 4-0 ATS off a home game vs an opponent off a double digit SU loss. Jacksonville the call. |
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09-29-19 | Vikings +1.5 v. Bears | 6-16 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 39 m | Show | |
Vikings/Bears 4:25: Bears have not looked impressive on the offensive end with Trubisky and it's not going to get easier here vs the stout Vikings defense. So far, Allen Robinson II is the only key cog at a wide out in the passing game vs a ball hawking Vikings' secondary in Waynes, Rhodes, Harrison and Smith. Vikings seeking double revenge from last year's sweep. Look for the #2 rush offense in the NFL behind Delvin Cook to grind out the yardage while Cousins will have another weapon to add to his dangerous receiving arsenal (Diggs, Thielen) today with the return of Treadwell. Vikings 6-1 ATS in Week 4 and catch Chicago on a short week off that MNF game. Minnesota the call. |
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09-29-19 | Raiders +6.5 v. Colts | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
Raiders/Colts 1:00: On the surface, looks like an easy call with Indy. Colts are coming off two straight wins whereas the Raiders dropped two straight following a win over Denver. A closer look, however, reveals a rash of injuries to key personnel for Indy. All Pro LB Leonard (concussion), S Hooker and DE Lewis cut into their defensive depth for the second week. And T.Y. Hilton (quad) takes away QB Brissett's top deep threat. Oakland is hoping OT Trent Brown (ankle) is good to go in order to help the character of Gruden's offense - run game behind RB Josh Jacobs. Technically, Oakland a sweet 8-0 ATS on the road vs the AFC South. Keep in mind that the last year, the Colts went into Oakland and smothered them 42-28. Interesting to note that the Colt's HC Reich is 0-4 ATS vs a less than .500 opponent seeking revenge. And since the Colts are 0-4 ATS in Week 4, we'll side with Oakland which is 5-1 ATS off a SU loss. |
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09-29-19 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 42 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
Patriots/Bills 1:00: Both of these teams have demonstrated strong defensive efforts despite the weakness in the teams they've played. Patriots with Belichick as the architect and signal caller of this year's defense, has not allowed an offensive TD in 3 games! Buffalo's offense is clearly not a juggernaut but has been productive. Patriots' defense has shut down the run early against all opponents and I expect them to do the same here before they tear into QB Josh Allen. On the other hand, Buffalo picked up where they left off last year with strong defensive effort in all 3 games. They'll have their hands full but Brady has some targets dinged up and even Brady is hobbling on a injured calf. NE is now 4-11 O/U in their last 15 games. Buffalo is on a 1-5 O/U run and this series is 2-5 O/U. Under it is. |
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09-29-19 | Patriots -7 v. Bills | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Patriots/Bills 1:00: Patriots have won 29 of 34 in this series and they're 16-5-1 ATS in Buffalo. With Edelman traveling, Brady (calf) able to practice this week, and a defense that has not given up a single offensive TD this season, New England is primed to deliver again. Sure, Bills are a quality team for I cashed the winning ticket with them in Week 1; however, areas of concern offensively with Josh Allen and surely Belichick will find a way to exploit his and the rest of the Bills' offensive weaknesses. A few points of value here as the Bills are a mere 1-4 ATS at home vs winning road teams. |
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09-28-19 | NC State +7 v. Florida State | 13-31 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 30 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | SMU -7.5 v. South Florida | 48-21 | Win | 102 | 2 h 14 m | Show | |
SMU/USF 4:00: SMU run game cooking and Texas transfer QB Buechelle running an efficient offense with multiple support from coaching staff and players. USC defense pretty good but offensively, they're stuck in neutral. Poor QB play with McCloud and even worse Barnett. And USF sloppy play exacerbated with penalties. SMU the call. |
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09-28-19 | Clemson v. North Carolina +27.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | Virginia +11 v. Notre Dame | 20-35 | Loss | -116 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | Northwestern +25 v. Wisconsin | 15-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
09-28-19 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M -23 | 27-31 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
09-27-19 | Arizona State v. California -4 | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
Arizona State/California 10:30: California's defense picking up where it left off last year. Although there are some troublesome spots, Golden Bears have now held their last 11 opponents to less than 24 points. And they put away SEC Ole Miss last week on the road with superior play from their QB Chase Garbers who perhaps played his best game in two seasons at the helm of California's improving offense. Arizona State very competitive in games but overvalued at 1-3 ATS. They got upset at home vs Colorado last week. The Sun Devils are just 1-8 ATS off a SU conference favorite loss. Bears 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of less than 12 points off a non-conference game. Cal the call. |
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09-27-19 | Duke +3 v. Virginia Tech | 45-10 | Win | 100 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
Duke/Virginia Tech 7:00: Virginia Tech has shown regression in areas this season. Despite all the returning starters on a Bud Foster defense, they've made mediocre offenses appear to be juggernauts. They were outstated by BC, Old Dominion and Furman in their 0-3 ATS ledger this season. Duke is hungry for revenge from last year's 31-14 embarrassment at home. Blue Devils are 9-1 ATS on the road with revenge off a non-conference game and 5-0 ATS as a dog with rest. Duke the call. |
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09-26-19 | Eagles v. Packers -4 | 34-27 | Loss | -106 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
Eagles/Packers 8:20: Could make a case for the Eagles here in three competitive games but underachieved in the Vegas money at 0-3 ATS. This will be there toughest assignment thus far and on a short week. Defensively, Eagles have concerns in their secondary and, offensively their vertical threat Desean Jackson (abdominal strain) is still out. They're also having trouble getting the run game started - fumble problem related - and that won't bode well vs the new improved GB defense. Packers have gotten after the QB so far - 12 sacks and their secondary is much improved from a year ago. Offensively, Packers' QB Rodgers, despite the 3-0 mark, disappointed in the offense and he should come out smoking under the bright lights tonight with his weapons Adams, Marquez-Valdez-Scantling, and Aaron Jones. Eagles' pass defense ranks 29th vs the pass and they've only registered 2 sacks. Packers 9-0 ATS as a non-division home favorite of less than 13 points off a non-conference game. GB the call. |
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09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 19 m | Show | |
Bears/Redskins 8:15: Sure, Redskins have been a miserable MNF performer at 0-6 ATS and everybody and their brother have pounded Chicago on this one. But don't get too excited about the Bears. They're generally slow out of the gate in September (5-12 ATS) and do not play well on the road against teams with losing records at home (1-5 ATS); after all, in Nagy's season debut last year, as good as it was, the Bears failed to cover at lightweight Arizona, Miami and NY Giants. Moreover, keep in mind that the Redskins are 5-0 ATS in this series. Sure, the Redskins' defense was a sieve against their first two opponents; however, Philly and Dallas do have respectable offenses, Chicago's offense is 30th in the NFL. Gruden can be dangerous as a dog and we'll grab the generous amount of points on the homie. |
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09-22-19 | Texans +3 v. Chargers | 27-20 | Win | 104 | 15 h 14 m | Show | |
Texans/Chargers 4:25: Can't count on the Chargers this time of year at 4-8 ATS in first 3 games of the season over the last 4 years. Moreover, their makeshift home stadium - now Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, is almost equivalent to a road game where their stadium capacity is a mere 30,000, almost never sold out and lots of times more than half filled with traveling team fans. LAC now 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 designated home games. Love QB Rivers but he's a sitting duck lots of times and Houston's Watt, Merciless and rookie Omenihu will be bringing the heat. And with Chargers' S Adrian Phillips out, Houston's QB Watson overdue for big game. Chargers have had trouble closing out games and that trend should continue. Texans 4-0 ATS off an ATS loss and should deliver here. |
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09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks -4.5 | 33-27 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show | |
Saints/Seahawks 4:25: Thought this line would be a bit higher considering the importance QB Brees (thumb) brings to the offense. Bridgewater is an adequate replacement and Hill is respectable in his novelty role; however, noisy Century-Link Field will be too big a test considering this is Bridgewater's first start in years. Pete Carroll a strong 10-2 ATS as a greater than .500 team vs an opponent off a SU loss. Seattle the call. |
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09-22-19 | Steelers +7 v. 49ers | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Steelers/49ers 4:25: Teams heading in opposite direction as the Steelers remain winless and without their #1 QB while 49ers rolling 2-0 out of the gate. Easy call for the 49ers, right? Not so fast. 49ers a money burning 1-13 ATS in their last 14 favorite rolls; moreover, HC Shannahan 0-7 ATS at home off a non-division game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Furthermore, 49ers are 1-8 ATS at home off scoring more than 22 points. Sure, Garoppolo is continuing his success and everything is running smooth in SF. But Pittsburgh is not an easy out. Steelers' HC Tomlin 11-1 ATS as a road dog vs an opponent off back-to-back SU wins. Steelers' QB Rudolph showed promise last week vs Seattle. And he's got weapons in Smith-Schuster, a solid TE and his old college teammate - speedster James Washington. I do realize Pitt's defense is struggling but they have talent and will figure it out. Surely, newly acquired Fitzpatrick will make an immediate impact. Steelers the call. |
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09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings -8 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Oakland/Minnesota 1:00: Zimmer a cash cow as a non-division home favorite at 18-2 ATS. Oakland hits the road off a tough loss. Raiders are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games and face an ornery Vikings team eager to get back in the win column after early game collapse at Green Bay. Minnesota did make a strong comeback that fell short but positive momentum should carry over here. Vikings a more complete team now that their running game is Cook-ing, literally! And Thielen, Diggs and Rudolph eager for breakout games. Should come here vs a still suspect Raiders' defense. |
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09-21-19 | Notre Dame +15.5 v. Georgia | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Nebraska -13 v. Illinois | 42-38 | Loss | -104 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | West Virginia v. Kansas +5 | 29-24 | Push | 0 | 3 h 1 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina -2.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
09-21-19 | Central Florida v. Pittsburgh UNDER 61 | Top | 34-35 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
UCF/Pittsburgh 3:30: UCF is rolling coming in to Pittsburgh knowing they're undefeated and with the thought of a 45-14 waxing last year of Pitt in Florida. UCF posting 600+ yards a game with freshman QB Gabriel at helm as everything is going their way. But hold everything. Pittsburgh's HC Narduzzi is one of the great defensive minds in college football and very dangerous with revenge; as a matter of fact, 7-1 ATS in revenge mode vs opponent off SU/ATS win. He's also 2-10-1 O/U off a SU loss. And for all the points UCF puts up, they're 2-7 O/U after scoring 40+. Moreover, they're heavily tilted towards "under" because of their strong defense as well. Pitt should play them tough here in a lower scoring game. Big play on "under" and even tread lightly on Pitt (+11). |
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09-21-19 | LSU -23.5 v. Vanderbilt | 66-38 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
LSU/Vanderbilt Noon: Given the same game with the old LSU offense under Orgeron, this would be a tough call laying that amount of wood; however, with the wide open attack of LSU Pass Game Coordinator - Brady, we'll lay it! Joe Burrow is a perfect fit for the Tigers' offense which has arguably the best receivers in the NCAA at his disposal. And throw in the run game, Vandy, which , which allows a generous 512 YPG or 7.8 yards per play, long day for the Commodores; after all, LSU still has that historical solid defense and Vandy offense not a threat. LSU 7-1 ATS as a road favorite of 12 or more vs an opponent off a SU loss. Tigers the call. |
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09-20-19 | Air Force +7.5 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 11 m | Show | |
09-19-19 | Titans -124 v. Jaguars | 7-20 | Loss | -124 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
Tennessee/Jacksonville 8:20: Just when you think the Titans are rolling they will disappoint. And when you lose faith in them, they'll win convincingly - as they did vs Browns in Week 1. After coming off a loss last week, we'll look for Tennessee to respond favorably; after all, they're 4-1 ATS in September and looked sharp on both prime time games last season. Last year, RB Henry ran all over the Jags. He's healthy this year and Mariota is overdue to get on his game. On the other hand, Jaguars' QB Gardner Minshew II stole the show last week by rallying his team to a near victory (failed 2 point conversion) at Houston. However, Titans had a week to study him and should find flaws in the rookie's game to exploit. Jag's HC Marrone is a poor 1-7 ATS off an away game vs an opponent off a SU loss. Titans up 4-0 ATS in this series and on a short week, believe the Titans recovered quicker and should deliver in a spot they do well in (8-1 ATS as Thursday night favorites). |
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09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 23 m | Show | |
Houston/Tulane 8:00: Tulane is no joke as HC Fritz has them improving every year; however, Houston still ahead of the recruiting game and should deliver here. The Cougars stomped Tulane last year 48-17 under former HC Applewhite. Now West Virginia's former head man - Dana Holgorsen calling the shots and he's picked up the Cougars recent tradition of covering as a dog (2-0) with covers against two ranked teams - Oklahoma and Washington State. Houston is a dangerous 14-1-1 ATS as a dog over the last 7 years. Defensively, the Cougars need work but have the explosive offensive firepower to match points with Tulane. Houston the call. |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets UNDER 45.5 | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Browns/Jets 8:15: Both defenses respectable and should stall out offenses that are searching for game. Former Browns' DC Gregg Williams who is now the Jets' DC is still bitter in not being retained as Browns' HC and not a fan of current Browns' HC Kitchens who released him. We'll look for Williams to dial up successful schemes to limit the Browns' struggling offense. Browns are 1-9 O/U off a double-digit loss at home. On the other side of the ball, Jets' QB Darnold (mono) is out and replacement is former Denver QB Trevor Siemian who never put up big numbers while in Denver. Gase should take a conservative approach with him. "Under" it is. |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +7 | 23-3 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 36 m | Show | |
Browns/Jets 8:15: Didn't think line move would be this dramatic. QB Darnold is clearly not an NFL Top 5 QB and the Browns haven't shown they are what they were hyped to be in pre-season after getting blown out by the Titans on their home turf. Jets are replacing Darnold with veteran Trevor Siemian who had a winning record as a starter with Denver. Jets are also seeking to avenge last year's loss in QB Mayfield's debut. Jets a dangerous 8-3 ATS as a MNF home dog where the Browns are a troublesome 0-4 ATS on MNF off a double digit SU loss. We'll grab the points here. |
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09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show | |
Eagles/Falcons 8:20: Going to grab value with a Falcons team that is 10-1 SU/ATS in home opener with Matt Ryan as their QB. Falcons are also 4-0 ATS in Week 2 while the Eagles tend to struggle in Week 2 at 2-8 ATS. The Falcons did get mauled last week in Minnesota but do sport a plethora of weaponry to exploit an Eagles' defense that got shredded by Case Keenum last week. Defensively, Falcons' got worked on the ground but held Cousins to under a 100 yards passing. Falcons have a ball hawking secondary and great LB in Deion Jones. Atlanta should settle in at home and deliver. |
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09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams OVER 52 | 9-27 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
Saints/Rams 4:25: Unimpressed with the Saints' defense which regressed from a year ago. They gave up nearly 8 yards per play to Houston last Monday. Today, Rams' QB Goff and his explosive weaponry should be more in rhythm against a softer defense. On the flip side, Brees looked sharp with his set of weapons and that should carry over here against a Wade Phillips' defense that looked less fierce in Week 1 than a year ago. Saints exploded for 510 yards on the Texans. Saints are 7-2 O/U in September and 13-6 O/U in Week 2. Rams have gone 5-1 O/U in their last 6 home games. This series is 8-3 O/U. "Over" the call. |
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09-15-19 | Vikings +3 v. Packers | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Vikings/Packers 1:00: Vikings kicked the crap out of Atlanta last week and I'm liking them going into Green Bay to make a run for the money. Sure, GB slugged it out successfully against Chicago but Bears' defense wasn't the same without DC Fangio. And QB Trubisky was his usual self (mediocre) when facing Green Bay, regardless of coordinator. I like Minnesota's run game with Delvin Cook and QB Cousins surely has the receiving weaponry and protection (OL) when the passing game gets rolling. As for the GB offense, QB Rodgers and company converted just 2 of its 12 third downs last week. And their won game was not good. They'll face a stiffer test against the very good Vikings' defense. Vikings tied in GB and won in Minnesota last year. Zimmer is 11-2 ATS vs an opponent off SU/ATS win with revenge. |