Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 234 | 83-86 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 26 m | Show | |
Nets/Bucks 7:30: Nets shot the lights out on their home floor in Game 1 and 2; unfortunately for Milwaukee, they couldn't keep up. Consequently, with four straight going "under" in this series, oddsmakers adjusted this 'total' to lowest level since August 4th, 2020 (230). On that day in Milwaukee, the teams combined for 235. Let's remember, in the regular season, Milwaukee controlled the #1 offensive output in the NBA at 120 PPP. They didn't forget how to manufacture points. They've had a few days to digest the loss and find ways to attack a Brooklyn defense that has its share of weaknesses (21st in league). The Milwaukee brick laying from the perimeter should cease tonight in their comfortable confines. Bucks 36-16 O/U on 2 days rest. "Over" it is. |
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06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns OVER 222 | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 19 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Suns 9:30: This series has gone 6-1 O/U in the last 7 meetings and 6-0 O/U last 6 in Phoenix. Nuggets faded down the stretch of Game 1 but Malone should use his bench better late tonight. We'll look for newly crowned MVP Jokic to turn up his game after mediocre (to his standard) performance in Game 1. Of course he'll need supporting help and will need Porter Jr. and someone else to hit shots consistently. we'll bet they do. Suns continue with great offensive chemistry after coming off series against a number 1 defense (Lakers) and Paul seems like his shoulder is getting better. We'll stay on the "over" here. |
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06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 21 m | Show | |
Clippers/Jazz 10:00: Clippers have not had much turnover time since their Game 7 win. Now they have to play in the high altitude of Utah where they haven't had much success (8-21-1 ATS). Well rested Utah may have Conley (hamstring) back in the fray on limited minutes. He's been a huge part of their success. More importantly, Jazz have too much talent, depth and discipline to fall here. With Donovan Mitchell back on the court, the Jazz rolled vs Memphis. Sure, Leonard and George are a dangerous duo but they don't have the supporting cast to challenge the likes of Mitchell, Bogdanovic, Conley and most likely Defensive Player of the Year - Gobert. Throw in Sixth Man of the Year - Clarkson and Utah is a tough out. LAC just 1-6 ATS off a 10+ point win. The emotional and draining win will make it difficult to regroup in a limited turnover time. Tread lightly though, Utah has been historically sluggish off extended layoffs. |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Hawks/76ers 7:30: Had Hawks in Game 1 but will jump on Philadelphia here. Hawks are shooting lights out as they are peaking at right time; however, 76ers fought way back in game by putting long lanky Simmons on Trae Young, limiting his effectiveness to a certain extent. Most likely see a similar strategy. Embiid surely didn't show lingering effects of knee issue. As good as Capella is, he still had trouble containing Embiid. And we'll look for Curry and Harris to show up tonight. Sixers should turn it up a few notches here. |
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06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers OVER 223 | 102-118 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 31 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-07-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Suns | 105-122 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 21 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Suns 10:05: Nuggets have 4 consecutive victories at Phoenix including the last two in OT. Sure, Murray and Barton were in those; however, love how Porter Jr. and Campazzo have stepped up their game to fill the void of Murray. Jokic is the MVP favorite for a good reason. The offense is run through him and he's making everybody around him better. We'll take the points with the road strong Nuggets. |
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06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | 86-125 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
Bucks/Nets 7:35: Bucks, the #1 scoring offense and #3 perimeter shooting team in NBA showed plenty of rust after a 6 day layoff with a poor 20% shooting from 3 point range. They were effective, however, getting in the paint (45%) and getting to free throw line. As bad as they shot, they almost covered. Harden (hamstring) won't play tonight, which puts stress on the starters Irving, Durant and veteran journeyman - Blake Griffen. Griffen had a great game but I don't expect on encore performance here. Milwaukee's Middleton and Holiday can only get better while Lopez and Giannis continue to create problems for teams in the low post. Brooklyn won't play DeAndre Jordan because of his poor defensive consistency and that puts lots of minutes on Griffen who shouldn't be able to hold up under the fire for 40 minutes. We'll grab the bucket with Milwaukee here. |
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06-06-21 | Mavs +6.5 v. Clippers | 111-126 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 32 m | Show | |
Mavericks/Clippers 3:35: Mavericks do their best work as an underdog and sport an impressive 5-0 ATS mark as a road dog. This series has gone to the road team with each team winning 3 games on their opponent's home floor. Mavericks play well in LA where they've covered 4 straight. Sure, Leonard was sensational in Game 6 and his supporting mate - George has his moments; moreover, Reggie Jackson is having a solid series. On the other hand, Dallas has one superstar that is carrying the team - Doncic. He has average - by NBA standards - talent surrounding him in Marjanovic, Hardaway Jr., Brunson and Porzingis. Doncic has been sensational at Los Angeles and if he hits near or above 40 points, it usually results in a Dallas win. Clippers will surely try to find another creative way on stopping him by throwing different bodies on him, cutting him off early in sets and trapping him; however, we'll look for him utilize his superior skills and hopefully get decent support from his teammates who can close on the rim. Clippers 2-6 ATS on Sundays and don't do their best work as a favorite or when expected to win. We'll take the points. |
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06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Hawks/76ers 1:05: Like how McMillan resurrected the Hawks season after it was going in the toilet under Pierce. Moreover, he did an outstanding job prepping Atlanta defensively in the playoffs in shutting down the Knicks. We'll look for him to work more magic against a 76ers team with an ailing star - Embiid (knee). Embiid is questionable as I write this; however, he's not at his most mobile and I'm going to lean on him missing this one; consequently, that leaves a void for underrated Hawks' center - Capela to exploit. Dwight Howard not equipped to handle long minutes either. Trae Young showed in Round 1 that the stage wasn't too big for him. He did a great job lighting it up from the perimeter, tear dropping it in the low post and as a distributor when NY clamped down on him. He has some good shooters supporting him too in Bogdanovic, Hunter and Collins. On the other hand, Curry is coming off a huge game and Harris is playing great. But going into this one with the team dependent on Curry, Harris and poor foul shooting Simmons, it should be a different story. 76ers just 10-11 SU without Embiid. Hawks play well on Sundays (7-0 ATS) and now a confident road team that's grown substantially since they last visited Philly. Atlanta the call. |
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06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show | |
Bucks/Nets 7:35: Well rested Bucks not intimidated going into Brooklyn where they've gone 16-4-1 ATS. Sure, they'll play the Big 3 - Irving, Durant, Harden - together for the first time but like their chances. With the addition of Jrue Holiday, Bucks have much more versatility than last year. Giannis and Middleton are continue to play at an elite level during the playoffs. And Lopez has been a force down low that Brooklyn should have trouble with. We'll look for the Bucks to keep this competitive tonight. |
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06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-03-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Blazers | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 18 h 3 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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06-02-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 226 | 110-126 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show | |
06-02-21 | Hawks +1.5 v. Knicks | 103-89 | Win | 100 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
Hawks/Knicks 7:35: Knicks exposed as bricklayers when the stakes are highest. The #1 defense in the NBA during the regular season but because of offensive ineptitude, NY unable to hustle back offensively to stop the array of good shooters on Atlanta. Only players stepping up for NY are Derrick Rose and hustle guy Taj Gibson. Regular season Knicks' stars - Randle and Barrett just not ready for prime time. Atlanta much more relaxed and proficient on both ends of the floor. McMillan is doing an amazing job coaching in preparation on disrupting the Knicks' offense. And the Hawks also have bench players coming in to deliver as Gallinari and Huerter exhibited in the last few games. Atlanta the call. |
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06-01-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | 140-147 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-31-21 | Jazz -5.5 v. Grizzlies | 120-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Jazz/Grizzlies 9:35: Donovan Mitchell's return makes a huge difference in this series. He's the main driving force among a talented group of players. Throw in Bogdanovic, Conley, Ingles and then Clarkson off the bench, just too much for Memphis to handle. Morant is an incredible playmaker while Brooks is a super in his supporting effort. But the normally dominant post force - Valanciunas has been cancelled out by the superior Jazz C Gobert. As long as Gobert stays out of foul trouble, Utah should deliver again. |
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05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
Suns/Lakers 3:35: Suns were in Game 2 until frustration set in and Booker got tossed. Payne has done a nice job taking over for Paul. There's no tomorrow for Paul who has to shake off his bruise and get to work. He's up there in age and this may be his last chance at vying for a title. Ayton has been rock solid in the low block and Booker should continue to light it up. On the other hand, James (ankle) and Davis (calf) playing well through injuries while getting good support in Game 2. Phoenix should turn the table here and make this competitive. Suns 11-4 ATS off a SU loss and covered 7 of last 10 as a road dog. Suns the call. |
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05-30-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | 96-113 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
Knicks/Hawks 1:05: Barrett and Randle have been horrendous thus far in the playoffs yet the Knicks are within grasp of covering. Rose has been awesome in the series and needs better support. Knicks have thrived all season on defense (#1 scoring defense in NBA) and will have to cut off lanes (Young), box out better and cover the perimeter better; consequently, that should lead to some transition buckets to get the sluggish offense generated. McMillan is outcoaching Thibs now and the Knicks need to shake out of their jitters. Knicks are 13-4 ATS on the road, 5-1 ATS off a loss of 10+ and have had success in Atlanta (18-7-1 ATS). |
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05-29-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5 | 121-111 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
Jazz/Grizzlies 9:35: Donovan Mitchell, as expected, was the difference maker in Game 2. But these Grizzlies have lots of fight in them. Grizzlies have a solid base of talent including Brooks, big man Jonas and their superstar - Morant. They'll need more production from their bench in this Bane and Grayson Allen will need to hit some shots. Grizzlies 20-8 ATS off a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 5-0 ATS as a home dog. We'll take the points here. |
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05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +4.5 | 120-103 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Bucks/Heat 1:35: Sure, 4 of 6 in this series have been Milwaukee blowouts including the two playoff games. And the Heat are terribly out of rhythm offensively getting very little from last season's playoff hero - Herro, and Dragic and Robinson laid an egg Thursday. Tonight, I believe the Heat will exhibit more fight. Butler, Adebayo lead a tough team that plays the playoff dog role well (5-2 ATS). We'll grab the points with the home team in a desperation mode. |
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05-28-21 | Clippers v. Mavs +3 | 118-108 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 44 m | Show | |
Clippers/Mavericks 9:35: Clippers had some time to find an answer on how to stop Luka Doncic; after all, they had plenty of film from last year's ousting of Dallas in the playoffs, the two game split in the regular season, and now, the 0-2 home playoff embarrassment. Tye Lue, taking over for Doc Rivers this season, says he's not worried but for the sake of the organization, that better translate to the court today. However, not sure it will. Clippers threw everything at Doncic but he triple doubled them in Game 2 as a result. When cast offs like Hardaway Jr. scorch you in two games for 21 and 28, respectively, you better be worried. Not sure Lue has the answer. Clippers just 1-6 ATS off a SU loss and have failed to cover this series in 4 of the last 5 attempts. We'll take the points. |
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05-28-21 | Nets v. Celtics UNDER 227.5 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 4 m | Show | |
Nets/Celtics 8:35: Brooklyn defense, #21 ranked in the regular season, turned up its intensity in post season in two blowout wins. Brooklyn is 0-5 O/U after scoring 100+, and they're 1-4 O/U in their last 5 road trips. Boston 1-5 O/U as a playoff dog and 1-4 O/U after allowing 100+. As a home dog, Boston 5-11 O/U. We'll look for this one to stay "under". |
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05-28-21 | Knicks +5 v. Hawks | 94-105 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 31 m | Show | |
Knicks/Hawks 7:05: Knicks' regular season top gun - Randle - shook off the rust and got into form in the second half of Game 2 to help the Knicks deliver the goods. Looked like nerves and over zealous energy hit the Knicks in the first half of Game 1. I see NY more relaxed at Atlanta tonight. NY sports a 18-7-1 ATS mark in Atlanta, including a 113-108 win there January 4th. And Derrick Rose didn't arrive in NY until February 8th and they're a much better team with him on the floor now. Knicks control the #1 defense in the NBA and should continue to make needed adjustments to Atlanta's sharp shooters and playmakers - Young, Bogdanovic, Hunter. Late in Game 2, Reggie Bullock did a good job on Young. We'll probably see more of that matchup tonight. Knicks 9-2 ATS as a road dog we'll take. |
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05-27-21 | Nuggets +4 v. Blazers | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-27-21 | Suns +7.5 v. Lakers | 95-109 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
Suns/Lakers 10:05: As expected in Game 2, Lakers came out strong with fire in the belly of Anthony Davis; despite that, Suns remained competitive even with Chris Paul struggling with his shoulder. Tonight, look for the Suns to keep it tight; after all, they're 11-3 ATS off a SU loss and covered 7 of their last 9 road tilts. Ayton needs to match Davis' intensity and I think he will. And Booker surely lends consistent significant offensive support. Lakers just 7-19 ATS off a SU win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home favorite roles. Phoenix the call. |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +1.5 | 113-84 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 14 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 225 | 113-84 | Win | 100 | 4 h 13 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Jazz 10:05: With Donovan Mitchell back in the fray tonight, Utah overdue for a breakout and it should come here. Ingles good coming off bench but not as full time on this Jazz team. Conley and Mitchell usually masterful in directing the show and should wake up the crowd here. Morant, Jonas and Brooks have been phenomenal in the playoffs thus far but face a huge challenge here as the depth of Utah should wear them down over 4 quarters now that Mitchell is back. |
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05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 23 m | Show | |
Hawks/Knicks 7:35: Liked how Burks elevated his game in Game 1; however, disappointed in Barrett (6 of 15) and, even more - Randle (6 of 23). I expect Randle to make a significant step up; after all, he torched the Hawks in 3 regular season games to the tune of 37.3 PPG/12.3 RPG/6.7 APG. And if Noel (ankle) is unable to go, Gibson is surely able to lend more quality minutes. Thibodeau needs to address getting very little, if anything, out of Payton. Thibs has been pushing the right buttons most of the year and confident that he'll make a solid decision on that. And let's not forget Thibodeau presides over the #1 defense in the NBA and should make the necessary adjustments to keep a handle on Young and Bogdanovic. Knicks solid as a home favorite all year at 13-4 ATS and 5-0-1 ATS on 2 days rest. NY the call. |
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05-26-21 | Wizards +8.5 v. 76ers | 95-120 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 28 m | Show | |
Wizards/76ers 7:05: In Game 1, 76ers went to the free throw line a staggering 33 times - a more than 2 to 1 advantage to the Wizards - Westbrook had 6 turnovers and ineffective as a shooter, Beal was only 1-6 from 3 point range, yet Washington still covered. We'll look for the Wizards to tighten up the bolts and be competitive once again; after all, they're 7-0-1 ATS off a SU loss, 6-0 ATS in their last 6 dog roles, 6-0 ATS on Wednesdays, and 4-0 ATS on 2 days rest. Coach Brooks does a nice job with adjustments and we'll stay on Washington. |
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05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
Lakers/Suns 10:05: The bulk of this Lakers' team has been here before. Last season, lost game 1 against the Blazers and proceeded to sweep. This Suns team is a bit more hungry and disciplined. I had the Suns in Game 1 and they delivered but will fade them here. Sunday, A.D. was outplayed by Ayton and the criticism is plentiful. Normally, a superstar doesn't have back-to-back bad games and I expect him to step up here to aid James. Lakers need more from Kuzma, and Schroder should step up his game. Lakers do have one of the top defenses in the NBA. That surely comes in handy down the stretch for stops. Lakers the call tonight. |
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05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
Blazers/Nuggets 10:05: Blazers chose to guard Jokic straight up; consequently, Nurkic and reserve Canter were abused; however, Jokic only had one assist as Jokic's mates didn't step up enough. Porter Jr. is a Top 10 trey bomber but was a miserable 1 of 10 from 3 point line. Look for Nuggets to make the right adjustments. 4-1 ATS off a double-digit loss at home. |
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05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
Heat/Bucks 7:35: Rarely does a superstar have back to back bad games. I would put Jimmy Butler in that category and he should shine tonight. Butler was held in check to a degree by Giannis yet still had open shots he would normally hit. Butler is a big-game player and has a proven supporting cast that flourished in the bubble last season vs Milwaukee. Miami 4-0-1 ATS following a SU loss and we'll grab the points. |
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05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz OVER 215.5 | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Jazz 9:35: Grizzlies pulled out a huge OT win at Golden State on Friday. And that was without the services of big man Jonas who fouled out in 4th. Morant was huge and he's getting good support from multiple Grizzlies. Utah, of course, is tough defensively and pack a strong offense. And throw in the added services of Donovan Mitchell (ankle), who should be on limited minutes, and former Grizzly - Conley who's back in the fray, and the well rested Jazz should run the floor tonight in the high altitude to tire out the Grizzlies. This series is set at its lowest 'total' in a while at Utah. This series is 5-0 O/U at Utah and we'll go "over". |
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05-23-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | Top | 107-105 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
Hawks/Knicks 7:05: Knicks' players bought into Thibodeau's defensive philosophy and the result paid dividends with the Knicks locking in the #4 seed as a host in the playoffs. Atlanta came on strong too after a mid-season coaching change. McMillan's done a great job guiding Atlanta to the playoffs after a rough start under the departed Lloyd. However, the #1 defensive team in the NBA has proven they can make stops but can run the floor and run an efficient half court offense. Randall has been amazing, Barrett has been big time support, and the Derrick Rose resurgence has been amazing. Knicks control a 6-0-1 ATS mark in this series and should deliver at MSG. |
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05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns -2.5 | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
Lakers/Suns 3:35: Lakers did a nice job forcing the Warriors' Curry out of his game late. Pesky Caruso was one of the key defenders disrupting him. And the Warriors did not have another offensive option who is a go-to-down-the-stretch-guy. Wiggins surely wasn't the answer. However, Suns have options. Chris Paul is a veteran point guard who has a solid supporting cast -especially SG Booker who can light it up. Then there is veteran playoff journeyman Crowder who rises to the occasion in big games. Lakers on a 1-4 ATS slide and not quite on their game yet. Phoenix the call. |
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05-22-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets +1 | 123-109 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 12 m | Show | |
Blazers/Nuggets 10:35: Lots of action on Blazers but I'm going the other way. Jokic was instrumental in keeping the Nuggets afloat when Murray went down April 12th. Since then, the Nuggets went a 13-5 SU including a meaningless loss to the Blazers to end the regular season. Campazzo, a pick up from Argentina, did a good job defensively to help fill some of the void. And Gordon, another good late season pick up has fit in the Denver system nice. With Monte Morris getting healthy and Porter Jr. continuing to add support to Jokic, Denver is still dangerous. Sure, Lillard and McCollum are a solid backcourt duo but Denver is better coached, more disciplined defensively and should deliver here. |
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05-22-21 | Celtics +8 v. Nets | 93-104 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 56 m | Show | |
Boston/Brooklyn 8:05: Prior to the season, Boston was selected to be a top contender by many; however, they underachieved dramatically - needing a play-in game to advance to the playoffs. It's no secret that Boston does a lot of their best work when expectations are low - as exhibited by their 30-17 ATS mark as an underdog over the last 47 games, including 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road dog roles. Sure, Brooklyn has the big-three together today in Irving, Durant and Harden. But they haven't had a whole lot of court time together and I don't expect magic chemistry against a pretty well disciplined Celtics' defense. And I realize the Celtics are void of Jaylen Brown (wrist) but Tatum and Walker have a pretty good supporting cast including energy driven Smart. After 3 straight losses to the Nets, look for the vengeful dog to turn in another scrap fest. We'll grab the points. |
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05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show | |
Heat/Bucks 2:05: Last season in the playoffs, the Heat ousted the heavily favored Bucks. Today, Milwaukee wants the revenge but Miami won't be an easy out. Miami came on strong down the stretch of the season with an 11-4 SU run and getting healthy. Butler's health will be important and he's battling through a back problem. Heat went 7-13 SU without Butler in the lineup. He should be good to go today. And let's not forget the supporting cast that stepped up last year to land the Heat in the NBA Championship vs the Lakers. Herro was huge and Spoelstra's decision to insert Dragic in as starter in the playoffs paid big dividends. Heat 21-9 ATS on 3 days rest and 4-1 as a playoff dog. Jury still out on Milwaukee and we'll take the points. |
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05-21-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -4 | 117-112 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Warriors 9:05: Like Jonas and Ja but Curry is shooting the lights out and Draymond Green is the guy that can take away Jonas in the paint. Warriors are 6-1 ATS off a SU loss and they control this series to the tune of 8-3 ATS. We'll look for the Warriors to advance to Utah. |
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05-20-21 | Pacers +3.5 v. Wizards | 115-142 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
Pacers/Wizards 8:00: Pacers OK with this game for they're in triple revenge mode and actually play better on the road. Malcolm Brogdon's return added life back into the Pacers' offense. And despite the injuries, Indiana working well together. Sabonis should give the Wizards' interior a problem. And Mr. Regular Season - Russell Westbrook - laid an egg when the Wizards really needed him to shine while Beal is showing diminishing returns playing through a lingering hamstring injury. Westbrook has had his share of post-season slumps and it could be in his head again tonight. Worth taking points with Pacers. |
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05-19-21 | Warriors +5.5 v. Lakers | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show | |
Warriors/Lakers 10:00: Lakers took two of three in this series. The one they lost was a 115-113 loss to the Warriors on January 18th with a healthy Lakers' squad at Los Angeles. Going in to this one, Lakers' top guns - James, Davis and even Schroder are battling injuries and haven't seen much time on the floor together over the last month. Meanwhile, Golden State has found their rhythm on a 6-0 ATS run and playing well together. I'll take the points here. |
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05-18-21 | Wizards +2 v. Celtics | 100-118 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 47 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow later... |
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05-16-21 | Lakers -7 v. Pelicans | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 5 h 27 m | Show | |
05-15-21 | Heat -2.5 v. Bucks | 108-122 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 28 m | Show | |
Miami/Milwaukee 8:10: Bucks do not want any part of a playoff matchup with the Miami Heat. A Milwaukee, sitting at the 3 seed, with a win tonight would most likely pit them against the 6th seeded Heat next week. Remember, in last year's playoffs, the Heat eliminated the heavily favored Bucks in 5 games. We'll probably look for limited play of Giannis, Middleton and Holiday. On the other hand, no reason for the Heat to take foot off the throttle. They're on an 11-3 SU run and covered 6 of their last 7 ATS. Milwaukee should stay drop to their 6th straight ATS loss. |
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05-14-21 | Pelicans v. Warriors -2 | 122-125 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-13-21 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4.5 | 114-103 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 0 m | Show | |
Denver/Minnesota 8:10: Wolves have been playing a great stretch of basketball - winning or in virtually every game since April 20th with the exception of a vengeful Miami team on May 7th. Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns and Russell have great chemistry together. Denver's Jokic holding the Nuggetts together since Murray's season ending injury April 12th. They're still looking to improve their seeding position as they currently trail LAC by 1 game and the Suns by 3. They're on a 1-4 ATS slide and have failed to cover their last 4 as road chalk. With Minnesota at 5-2 ATS in this series and looking to end their season strong, we'll take the points. |
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05-12-21 | Wizards +6.5 v. Hawks | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
Wizards/Hawks 7:10: Under normal circumstances of mid-regular season, given tonight's roster, talent disparity is clearly in favor of the Hawks. However, at this stage of the season, Wizards are fighting for their Playoff Play-In lives! With top scorer - Beal (hamstring) out, the burden is put on triple-double king - Westbrook. Fortunately, Scott Brooks doing an amazing job using his bench to accommodate Westbrook. Hachimura has done a nice job in support while Bertans, Neto and Beal's replacement - Ish Smith work hard enough to keep games close. Wizards 7-1-1 ATS last 9 road games and we'll take the points with the desperate and vengeful team. |
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05-11-21 | Magic v. Bucks -13 | 102-114 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 9 m | Show | |
Magic/Bucks 9:10: Good value with the Bucks which lost in a lackluster effort last night. Sure, they'll go into this one unrested but last night Budenholzer pulled his starters around 6 minutes of the 4th and they'll be ready to roll here. Orlando has been getting pummeled since starting their rebuilding project after releasing Vucevic, Gordon and Fournier. And they have not fared well in this series at 0-5 ATS. Bucks 4-1 ATS following a loss and we'll roll with them. |
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05-10-21 | Bucks v. Spurs +7 | 125-146 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
Bucks/Spurs 8:40: Decent value here with a Spurs team that looks down and out losing 6 of the last 7 SU; however, 3-3-1 ATS over that stretch. They're clinging on to the 10 and final Play-In spot and do have something to play for here. Milwaukee is settled in and really not concerned about seeding as they prepare for playoffs, maybe even limiting minutes for top guns: Giannis, Middleton, Holiday. Spurs have covered 5 straight in this series and we'll look for them to step up their game a notch here. |
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05-09-21 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 128-96 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show | |
T-Wolves/Magic 7:10: Both these teams are not participating in post-season and will be playing the regular season out. Orlando, riddled with injuries, finishing season with makeshift lineup. T-Wolves, on the other hand, have a legitimate future with team nucleus: Karl-Anthony Towns, Edwards, Russell and playing well. Wolves competing well and should bounce back off three tough losses vs playoff caliber teams. Minnesota 9-3-1 ATS off a SU loss while Magic just 1-6 ATS as a home dog. We'll lay some wood here with Minnesota. |
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05-08-21 | Spurs +6 v. Blazers | 102-124 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-08-21 | Nets -3.5 v. Nuggets | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 7 h 42 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-07-21 | Wolves +6.5 v. Heat | 112-121 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
T-Wolves/Heat 8:10: Minnesota has won 5 straight (5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS) in this series and they're no easy out tonight. Anthony Edwards is playing a great stretch of basketball and hot from the perimeter. Miami, on the other hand, is struggling to guard the perimeter - as evidenced against Dallas. Sure, Spoelstra will make the needed adjustments and will have Jimmy Butler back for this one. Some good chemistry going on with Russell, Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns. We'll look for Minnesota to continue to compete. |
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05-06-21 | Bulls -4 v. Hornets | 120-99 | Win | 100 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
Bulls/Hornets 7:10: On the surface, looks like the Hornets are the call; after all, they're at home - where they've been respectable, and starting to get healthy. However, a closer look reveals the Bulls beat Charlotte twice this season - at home and on the road - and they get back two key cogs - LaVine and Vucevic. Sure, the Bulls are on a 4 game slide and on the verge of elimination from a play-in position; however, they've taken on a tough stretch over those 4 games: NY, Milwaukee, Atlanta and Philadelphia. Now that they have their key players back and in a desperation mode, we'll look for Chicago to win with authority today. |
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05-05-21 | Spurs +7 v. Jazz | 94-126 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
Spurs/Jazz 9:10: Spurs were slow out of the gate last night and the Jazz defensively made sure they didn't recover. Tonight, look for cagey veteran Spurs' HC Popovich to make the right adjustments; after all, Utah is still without their star Mitchell and his backcourt partner Conley. Spurs have enough talent to keep this one tight; moreover, every game important for the Spurs now to bolster shot at playoff-play-in. Spurs are 12-3-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss. Spurs the call. |
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05-04-21 | Mavs v. Heat -3 | 127-113 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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05-03-21 | Spurs +7.5 v. Jazz | 99-110 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 35 m | Show | |
Spurs/Jazz 10:10: Jazz still playing pretty good basketball despite the absence of their star back-court players - Mitchell and Conley. Conley and Mitchell were instrumental in domination for much of the season, including the 130-109 win in January vs San Antonio. Bogdanovic is now one of the key offensive driving forces while rookie Trent Forest made big plays in the 4th quarter to get by Toronto on Saturday. Unlike San Antonio, Utah had a day of rest to recoup after a difficult, condensed schedule. Spurs have no time to feel sorry for themselves after falling to Philadelphia in OT yesterday. They're desperately clinging in contention with GS, NO and Memphis for a spot for a Play-In game. The good news, Popovich rested DeRozan and Poeltl yesterday for today. And Keldon Johnson stepped up his game recently. Tonight, Dejounte Murray (knee) is off the injury report and should be back to spark the desperate Spurs. Spurs 18-7-1 ATS as a road dog and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 unrested. Take the points. |
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05-03-21 | Pacers +4 v. Wizards | 141-154 | Loss | -104 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Pacers/Wizards 7:10: Lots of focus now on a hot Washington club but don't count the Pacers out. Indiana, 5-1 ATS road run, remains 1 1/2 games ahead of Washington. Sure, Westbrook and Beal are a super backcourt duo; however, Levert and Sumner are pretty freaking good themselves; moreover, like Indiana's smooth frontcourt now that Sabonis is back in the fray to help Brissett on the boards. Indiana covered 5 of the last 7 in this series and sports an impressive 11-4 ATS mark at Washington. I'll take the points! |
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05-02-21 | Heat v. Hornets +5.5 | 121-111 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 2 m | Show | |
Heat/Hornets 8:10: The return of LaMelo Ball and Malik Monk add quality depth to the Hornets as they vie to catch Miami, whom sit one game ahead of the Hornets in the NBA Eastern Conference. Both teams played last night and won. Charlotte has won the first two games of this season series and can sweep it here for the first time in 19 years. Heat 15-16 SU on the road and giving 5 1/2 points to a pretty good home team when healthy. We'll take the points. |
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05-01-21 | Pelicans v. Wolves +3.5 | 140-136 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Wolves 8:10: New Orleans working for that Play-In game while Minnesota merely playing for pride. Thursday night, the Pelicans battled back from a double-deficit to finish off a depleted OKC team; meanwhile, T-Wolves decided they weren't going to fold to bolster their lottery leverage and dispatched the Warriors. T-Wolves on a 4-0 run and playing their best stretch of basketball. Russell, Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns clicking together; moreover, now Rubio is stepping up his game with 26 on Thursday. Don't like the inconsistency of the Pelicans. Talented but can't count on NBA vagabond Van Gundy to pull his team together in crunch time. Pelicans 2-5 ATS off a SU win and 3-10 ATS in this series. And remember, Karl-Anthony Towns and Russell did not play back in January when the Wolves won. And the Wolves followed that up on March 11th in a 135-105 throttling to end their nine game losing streak. We'll take the points again with the resurging Wolves. |
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04-30-21 | Bucks -1 v. Bulls | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
Bucks/Bulls 9:10: Bucks lost Giannis (ankle) last night early and it surely disrupted their play in Houston. Tonight, we'll look for them to battle back. Bucks have more than enough talent surrounding Holiday and Middleton to carry them here vs Lavine -less Bulls. Tread lightly however, Bucks not a great team unrested; however, they do play well in Chicago (8-0 ATS). |
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04-30-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Celtics | 140-143 | Win | 100 | 7 h 2 m | Show | |
Spurs/Celtics 7:40: Boston cooling off a bit after a hot run. The Celtics are on a 1-3 ATS slide and will be without two key players - Walker (oblique) and energy guy on both ends of the floor - Smart (suspension). Spurs desperate to hang on to Play-In positioning. Spurs are coming off a loss to Miami and control a 4-1 ATS mark off a SU loss and 15-5-1 ATS as a road dog. Sure, White is out but Spurs have good depth at point with Murray and Mills. And surely DeRozan can run the show. Spurs the call. |
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04-29-21 | Bucks -12.5 v. Rockets | 136-143 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
Bucks/Rockets 8:10: Bucks bolstering their defensive presence with the addition of P.J. Tucker. Most of the Bucks' playoff roster set and they're still capable of grabbing that #1 seed with a strong finish and some falling off from Brooklyn and Philadelphia. As for Houston, they're playing out the season with a makeshift lineup. Bucks 5-1 ATS vs team under .400. We'll look for the the #1 offense in the NBA to roll tonight. |
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04-28-21 | Spurs +5 v. Heat | 111-116 | Push | 0 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
Spurs/Heat 8:10: Heat dealing with some injuries and continuing inconsistent play, are welcoming revenge minded Spurs to Miami tonight. Spurs got blown out by Miami April 21st only to follow it up with a 3 game win streak. Popovich has them playing well and finishing. We'll take the points with the playoff minded Spurs. |
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04-28-21 | Lakers v. Wizards +3 | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
Lakers/Wizards 7:40: Now that A.D. is back in the fray and LeBron days away from making his appearance again, pundits believe all is well in La La Land. Not buying it yet and value with the Wizards here. Wizards coming off a tough overtime loss Monday in their 2nd night of a back to back vs a surging Spurs team. They should bounce back here. Wizards defense, which allows 118.2 PPG during the regular season, whittled that number down to 110.9 during their win streak. Spurs ran them wild in that OT loss. We'll look for the Wizards legs to recover tonight. They're 9-1 ATS on 1 day of rest; moreover, back on February 15th, Washington came back from a 17 point deficit to whip Lakers (LeBron James present) 123-112. Lakers lost a pair of game to Dallas with Anthony Davis back with limited minutes and came back to win vs lightweight Orlando Monday. Lakers still not in great rhythm as major sparkplug Schroder (probable) battling a sprained ankle. We'll look for Westbrook and Beal to go off tonight. |
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04-28-21 | Bulls v. Knicks -5 | 94-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 36 m | Show | |
Bulls/Knicks 7:40: Knicks let a double-digit lead elapse vs Phoenix on Monday. It was their first loss in 10 games. Randle finally went cold and the Knicks ran out of gas late. Nevertheless, we'll look for NY to bounce back strong here. HC Thibodeaux and former MVP Rose, two former Bulls, want to stick it to their old club. Bulls just 2-8 ATS at MSG. Knicks 12-3 ATS off a SU loss and a strong 20-6 ATS vs teams under .500. NY the call. |
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04-26-21 | Suns v. Knicks +2 | 118-110 | Loss | -114 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
Suns/Knicks 7:40: Knicks are the hottest team in the NBA with 12 straight covers and 9 consecutive SU wins. We'll grab a bucket here with them at MSG. Randle has been consistently hot and his supporting cast is one of the reasons. When Derrick Rose is on the floor, Knicks are running a smooth offense. Thibodeaux may consider increasing his minutes in place of struggling Payton. Bullock, Barrett continue to be great in supporting roles. Suns appear to be running out of gas - as exhibited yesterday at Brooklyn. Suns miss Crowder's high energy. He's still questionable with a bad ankle. Suns just 1-4 ATS unrested and we'll stay on red hot Knicks. |
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04-25-21 | Suns +1.5 v. Nets | 119-128 | Loss | -107 | 1 h 18 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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04-24-21 | Spurs +2.5 v. Pelicans | 110-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show | |
Spurs/Pelicans 8:10: Spurs are in a position to claim one of the final two Western Conference Playoff-Play-In games and I believe they'll be at full throttle tonight and deliver. Spurs were shorthanded Thursday with DeRozan (bruised quad), Murray and Mills getting rest in their second of back-to-backs. Spurs rallied and cruised by the Pistons. Gay (back issues) should be good to go tonight. Stakes are high tonight if a tie-breaker comes into play as the regular season wraps. Each team won a game on its home court this season. New Orleans coming off a blowout over lightweight Orlando; however, look for veteran championship winning Popovich to outcoach NBA retread Van Gundy. Pelicans still have major defensive lapses during critical moments of meaningful games. Pelicans need this game more than San Antonio but won't get it. Spurs have covered 4 straight in this series and I'm looking for them to cover a fifth tonight. |
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04-23-21 | Grizzlies +3.5 v. Blazers | 130-128 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show | |
Grizzlies/Blazers 10:10: Grizzlies still in the playoff hunt and getting back Jaren Jackson Jr. will help. Jackson did well in his first game of the season earlier this week and we'll bet he helps Morant and company work the Blazers. Portland is reeling down the stretch on a 1-5 SU slide and even with Lillard back, Blazers' HC Stott finds ways of losing the close ones. Grizzlies a dangerous road team having covered 9 of their last 12 road tilts (losing one cover in MSG in OT). Memphis is a sweet 4-0 ATS off a SU loss of more than 10 points. We'll look for Grizzlies to take it to the wire here. |
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04-22-21 | Suns -1 v. Celtics | 86-99 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
Suns/Celtics 7:10: Going to stay on Suns which are unrested yet rolling with momentum off big relief win at Philadelphia last night. Suns are healthy and well in to contention for NBA Western Conference #1 seed. This line opened with Suns a 6' to 7 point favorite on news of uncertainty of Boston's Tatum and Walker; however, dwindled down to -1 now that both are listed as "available". Nevertheless, Celtics won't have big man Williams III to keep Ayton off the glass, nor will they have Jaylen Brown (shoulder) who contributes 24.5 PPG. I will remain cautious because Suns have taken their foot off the throttle before against a banged up or inferior team - San Antonio April 17th blowout loss comes to mind; however, Suns know what's at stake and want that #1 seed, control a 10-2-1 ATS road run, 4-0 ATS at Boston, and 10-4 ATS unrested. And they get to rest a few days after this with Brooklyn on deck Sunday. Phoenix the call. |
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04-21-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1.5 | 127-137 | Win | 100 | 17 h 28 m | Show | |
Hawks/Knicks 8:10: Knicks with 7 straight wins, 10 straight covers. NY took out Atlanta back on February 15th 123-112. Randle went off for 44 points in that one. He and the Knicks are still cooking with gas. Knicks still boast #1 defense in the NBA, making key stops down the stretch and hitting clutch shots. Atlanta playing a great stretch of basketball themselves. Ever since McMillan took over running the team, Atlanta has been rolling. Both teams playing unrested but like the Knicks depth and how Thibodeaux uses his bench. Knicks 5-0 ATS unrested and 5-0-1 ATS in series. Roll with the Knicks. |
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04-20-21 | Wolves v. Kings -3 | 134-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 0 m | Show | |
Wolves/Kings 10:10: Kings showed there is a glimmer of hope remaining for a potential Playoff-Play-In after dispatching the Mavericks Sunday. They need a serious winning run to go on and lightweight Minnesota is surely a winnable game. T-Wolves aren't seeing the playoffs and playing into revenge here. They got the best of Sacramento April 5th and the Kings should be ready tonight. Whiteside is back in the fray to add the needed depth while Barnes, Davis, Wright adding solid scoring. T-Wolves' defensive lapses are notable and should allow the Kings to deliver down the stretch. Home team 6-2 ATS in this series and we'll roll with Sacramento. |
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04-19-21 | Suns +3 v. Bucks | 128-127 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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04-18-21 | Kings +9 v. Mavs | 121-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
Kings/Mavericks 7:40: Dallas most likely due for Playoff-Play-In while Sacramento on the verge of elimination from post season play altogether; as a matter of fact, Kings need to go on a 14-2 SU run to reach .500. Sacramento has lost 9 straight games yet showed promise at Phoenix in 122-114 (+12'). Dallas, on the other hand, is on an 0-4 ATS slide. Mavericks allow teams back in games on account of consistent defensive lapses; consequently, they're a money burning 5-11 ATS home favorite. Kings, 5-1 ATS in Dallas, have some scorers (Fox, Hield, Barnes) who can keep them in this one. Take the points. |
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04-17-21 | Jazz v. Lakers +8 | 115-127 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show | |
Jazz/Lakers 4:40: Jazz' superstar Donovan Mitchell left last night's game with a sprained ankle. I doubt he'll be a go here. Should give the Lakers an opportunity to be competitive here. Lakers got blown out by the Jazz back on February 24th -114-89. A.D. was out that game. Lakers are holding the fort down till him and Lebron James are back. Drummond, should be a go Saturday, gives the Lakers a low post threat to help with Gobert. Lakers have alternated wins and losses over last 10 games. They're coming off a loss to the Celtics Thursday and need to improve seeding as the season winds down. Jazz 1-5 ATS in Los Angeles and may be slightly out of rhythm unrested here without their top gun (Mitchell). We'll grab the points here. |
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04-16-21 | Knicks +5 v. Mavs | 117-109 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
Knicks/Mavericks 9:40: Knicks on a roll (7-0 ATS run) and we're staying on them here. Randle is getting great support from his surrounding cast as someone - Burks, Rose, Barrett - is consistently stepping up off the bench or in the supporting role. Thibodeaux has his men playing great defense (#1 in NBA) and they're hitting shots. Dallas coming off an amazing last second win at Memphis as basketball magician Doncic sank an off balance 3 pointer at the buzzer. We'll look for them to be over-celebrated here. Knicks hungry and 6-1 ATS in Dallas. New York the call. |
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04-16-21 | Pelicans v. Wizards +2 | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Wizards 7:10: Pelicans looked sluggish against NY on Wednesday and we'll look for a carry over effect tonight vs the heating up Wizards. Pelicans' perimeter game sluggish as their top perimeter guns are out. And they're not defending the perimeter too well either. That doesn't bode well against the electric backcourt of Washington. Beal and Westbrook playing a great stretch of ball leading a well synchronized attack. Brooks has the Wizards looking at closing in on the Playoff Play-In and need a win here. Wizards are streaky at 5-0 ATS off a 10+ point win and 5-0 ATS on 1 day rest. They're also looking to avenge earlier season 124-106 loss at New Orleans. They got them in The Verizon Center tonight. Home team in this series is 6-1 ATS. Washington the call. |
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04-15-21 | Kings v. Suns -12 | 114-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show | |
Kings/Suns 10:10: Going to be tough for struggling Kings to trade buckets with the red hot Suns. Kings are in the bottom tier of the NBA - defensively - allowing nearly 119 PPG. They're on an 8 game losing streak (1-7 ATS) after another disappointment last night vs Washington. They're a money burning 8-23 ATS off a SU loss and going nowhere fast. Suns, in a top playoff seed hunt, have it together and healthy. Booker, Paul and Ayton just too much for the Kings. |
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04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
Bucks/Hawks 7:40: Hawks are playing great ever since McMillan stepped in as interim coach following the Pierce firing. Hawks are on a 16-5 SU run and into playoff talk. Hawks had to play without leading scorer - Trae Young (calf) the last few games; however, it was a seamless transition as Goodwin filled in nicely scoring 17 and 18 points, respectively. Bogdanovic has been great and Capela has been great defensively. Hawks got the swagger and, fortunately, the bench is producing. I think it will hold up here. Bucks will not have Giannis (knee) again. Bucks got by lightweights Orlando and then Minnesota last night to keep it rolling. Middleton and Holiday are keeping it together there; however, McMillan has Atlanta playing defense and it won't be easy for the Bucks like last night's blowout. We'll take the points. |
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04-14-21 | Knicks +3 v. Pelicans | 116-106 | Win | 100 | 18 h 58 m | Show | |
Pelicans/Knicks 8:10: Pelicans playing a pretty good stretch. Williamson and Ingram are a dangerous duo but depth a bit thin. Don't like the fact they were up 23 at halftime on lightweight Sacramento only to have the Kings battle within 4 late. 8 games this month starting to have an effect on them. Knicks are a bit deeper and playing a really good stretch (6-0 ATS run). Pelicans, whoever, are inconsistent (1-4 ATS off an ATS win) and 0-5 ATS on Wednesdays. Knicks have covered 7 of their last 8 road tilts. They're 8-3 ATS in New Orleans. Thibodeau has the Knicks playing great defense (#1 in NBA) and will find a way to slow Zion down and outcoach Van Gundy. Take the points. |
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04-13-21 | Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show | |
Celtics/Portland 10:10: Celtics picking up their game at the right time. They're on a 5-1 SU run capped by a strong comeback Sunday in Denver. Boston pulled another late comeback win battling back from 14 down to finish on a 40-8 run in a 105-87 whitewash. Tatum has been on fire and he's getting good support from a healthy and confident supporting cast. Portland, on the other hand, on a 2-4 SU slide. Lillard is struggling and they're not playing well against winning opponents as they're 0-6 ATS mark vs teams above .500 attests to that. Boston has had success in Portland winning 3 of the last 4 there. Boston the call. |
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04-12-21 | Lakers v. Knicks -3 | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show | |
Lakers/Knicks 7:40: Give credit to the Lakers, which ambushed the Nets Saturday. Drummond is turning out to be a huge pickup for them. However, Nets were not at full capacity with both Durant and Irving on limited minutes. And Lakers have not won back to back games SU since the 26th and 28th of March. Knicks playing a good stretch of hoops now - 5-0 ATS run as Randle and Barrett are working it. Knicks are MONEY as a favorite at 20-8 ATS. They're also 4-0 ATS unrested and covered 8 of last 8 as home chalk. Lakers have had trouble in NY 2-7 ATS and not good on Mondays (2-5 ATS). I don't believe the Lakers will sneak up on the Knicks tonight. |
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04-11-21 | Spurs +6 v. Mavs | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show | |
Analysis to follow... |
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04-10-21 | Rockets v. Warriors -9 | 109-125 | Win | 100 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
Rockets/Warriors 10:10: Both teams coming off losing efforts yesterday. Warriors at some point are going to have to step up their level of play - particularly on the defensive end - if they want to make the post-season. They currently sit outside on the fringe in qualifying for a playoff spot and need to blow out makeshift, limited talent teams like Houston. Warriors are relatively healthy with Curry, Green, Wiggins - are you kidding me? - underachieving. Warriors do deliver vs teams under .400 on the road playing at Golden State at 8-2 ATS. With a major talent and coaching disparity, look for Golden State to blow this one open. |
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04-09-21 | Yankees -130 v. Rays | 5-10 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 29 m | Show | |
Yankees/Rays 3:10: Kluber over due to get rolling and it should come here. The two time Cy Young Award winner controls a 5-2 mark with a 2.67 ERA vs the Rays. Rays counter with Rich Hill who did not look good against the Marlins on Saturday. Yankees hitting lefties well at the moment (.299 BA) should send Hill to the showers early and subsequently tee off on the overused bullpen. Yankees the call. |
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04-08-21 | Suns v. Clippers -6 | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
Suns/Clippers 10:10: I was on the Suns (+2) last night and they delivered in OT. Tonight, I'm fading them off that emotional win. Clippers are coming on strong (2-0 SU/ATS) after an expected slip up vs Denver. Leonard and George establishing a nice rhythm while Beverly is back in the fray to solidify a solid lineup. Suns just 1-8 ATS in Los Angeles while the Clippers have covered 8 of their last 10 at home. Suns just don't have the recovery time (mentally and physically) to recharge for tonight. Clippers nipping at the heels of the Suns in the Pacific and need to secure a win here to move up a game in the division. Lay the points. |
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04-07-21 | Jazz v. Suns +2 | 113-117 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show | |
Jazz/Suns 10:10: Both of these teams at the top of the tier in standings and ATS. However, Jazz slipping into a 1-3 ATS funk. Coming off a poor shooting perimeter game in Dallas on Monday where Jazz went 12 of 44. Jazz just 8-18-2 ATS following a SU loss. Phoenix Big 3 - Booker, Paul and Ayton in great rhythm now. The Suns sport a 5-2 ATS mark as a home dog and covered the last 3 in this series. We'll roll with Phoenix. |
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04-06-21 | 76ers v. Celtics +1 | 106-96 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 51 m | Show | |
76ers/Celtics 7:40: Celtics starting to play better, coming off two solid outings as Tatum, Smart, Walker, Brown and even center Williams stepping up his play; moreover, newly acquired Fournier, after a rough start, came on strong last two games off the bench as a big contributor. Celtics eager to avenge a pair of mid January defeats at Philadelphia. Boston, 19-7 ATS as a home dog, catching the Sixers' Embiid in not his greatest form. Embiid dominated in those January games; however, he's working his way back after an extended injury and limited in floor time. Celtics the call. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor +4.5 v. Gonzaga | 86-70 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
Baylor/Gonzaga 9:20: Baylor is coming off a dominating clinic on both ends of the floor against a very good Houston team; meanwhile, Gonzaga escaped in OT in what will be remembered as one of the great, if not the greatest, Final Four games ever. The emotional turnaround may be a bit hard to bounce back from for the Bulldogs after that epic clash. It was an old school 15 round slugfest with plenty of haymakers. Suggs, Timme, Kispert are prime timers and surely will show up tonight; however, anything after that huge win is anticlimactic. Surely, Coach Few is capable of flipping the script with laser focus on Baylor; however, the deep Baylor Bears should be a bit more fresh after their demolition of Houston. Baylor might be a bit undersized against Timme down low but has a few big bodies to throw at him with Thamba and Mayer. And I realize Suggs is a big time performer but Defensive Player of the Year - Davion Mitchell - can harass him enough to disrupt the Zags' rhythm a bit. And keep in mind that the Bears are the #1 three point shooting team in the nation at a ridiculous 43% clip. Bears have the defensive rhythm established and their offense is back to what it was earlier this season on their big run. We'll take the points with Baylor. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga OVER 159 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
Baylor/Gonzaga 9:20: Gonzaga, the #1 scoring team in the nation (91.6 PPG), has yet to be contained this season. And as good as Baylor's defense is, they will not contain them either; however, Bears are no slouch offensively, dropping 82 PPG (#4 nationally) and sporting the #1 three point shooting % in the nation at a near 43% clip. Baylor surely will not attempt to slow the game down and make it a half court game. Bears and Zags both thrive on turnovers leading to transition and have the personnel to finish at the basket. Timme is a matchup nightmare, and Suggs is big time prime time player along with the other future NBA baller -Kispert. Throw in Ayayi and defensive answers become nearly non-existent. On the other hand, Baylor is equipped with great talent too and they're in great rhythm. Gonzaga may be a step slow after their epic OT clash with UCLA Saturday. Gonzaga a ridiculous 40-18 O/U in their last 58 games. Baylor 14-3 O/U run. It's in the character of these teams to turn it up and with both offenses in great rhythm, we'll stay "over"! |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga -14 | 90-93 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 26 m | Show | |
UCLA/Gonzaga 8:34: UCLA would love to turn this into a grind it out affair like they did against Michigan. Juzang was amazing in the halfcourt; Campbell had his moments on switches and even toasted 7'1" Dickinson. And there was great supporting help; however, Gonzaga has proved to be another animal with immense talent that can turn it up on command. Timme and Suggs looked unstoppable and slipped it into another gear against a very good Trojans team. Gonzaga sports the #1 offense in the nation and no matter how Cronin draws it up, his hard working team won't be able to limit the talent of Gonzaga. Gonzaga has turned up defensive intensity, forcing turnovers and breaking to basket. Their finishing level is tops in the nation. We'll lay the wood with a laser focused Bulldogs team. |
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04-03-21 | Houston +5 v. Baylor | 59-78 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 45 m | Show | |
Houston/Baylor 5:14: Rode Baylor throughout this tourney but will grab the points here with Houston. Cougars are a stifling defensive team (#2 nationally) that force teams in to doing bad things. Sure, Baylor has +4 turnover margin in the NCAA Tournament and forced nearly 17; however, Houston manages the ball well and, although go into shooting slumps, can crash the boards with the best of them. And that is Baylor's weakness. They're 8th in the Big 12 in defensive rebounds and the lower tier nationally. If Houston can limit Baylor in offensive production, control the boards, and limit turnovers, Cougars can deliver. It was the prescription Kansas used to beat them February 27th and we'll look for savvy veteran Coach Sampson to employ a similar strategy. Take the points. |
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04-02-21 | Thunder v. Suns -12.5 | 103-140 | Win | 100 | 20 h 25 m | Show | |
OKC/Phoenix 10:10: OKC coming off a big win over struggling Toronto on Wednesday. Thunder 4-10 ATS after scoring 100+ and 1-5 ATS on 1 day rest. The Thunder are able to beat lightweights or a depleted heavyweight occasionally; as a matter of fact, they dispatched the Suns in Phoenix back on January 27th. It should be duly noted though that the Suns were without their top gun Devin Booker that night. When Chris Paul is forced to be the go-to-scorer, the Suns struggle. Paul is a facilitator and Booker is the natural scorer. Throw in Ayton down low and energy driven wily veteran Crowder and the Suns are a legitimate contender. Suns 13-5 ATS at home, 5-0 ATS on Friday and can close as a favorite (19-7 ATS). Suns the call. |
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04-01-21 | Nuggets -1.5 v. Clippers | 101-94 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
Nuggets/Clippers 10:10: Both teams rolling but Clippers dealing with injuries. George, Beverly, Ibaka, Morris (calf), and the inability to get Rondo (thigh) on floor will make it difficult to compete four quarters with a determined Nuggets team that's eager to avenge its Christmas day -121-108 loss. Lue's depleted bench showed Tuesday vs lightweight Orlando - allowing them to roll in the second half. Nuggets are healthy, Jokic playing at an MVP level, Murray - hitting stride, and when Porter is on his game - currently is- Nuggets hard to stop. In addition, Nuggets feeling good going forward with addition of Gordon and McGee which will add versatility to their defense. Nuggets nipping at the heels of the Clippers in the standings and need this one. Nuggets covered 5 of the last 7 in this series and I'm riding them here. Nuggets the call. |
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03-31-21 | Knicks -3.5 v. Wolves | 101-102 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
03-30-21 | UCLA v. Michigan -6.5 | 51-49 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
UCLA/Michigan 9:57: At first glance, UCLA, my choice vs Alabama, would be the call here; after all, they took down Michigan State in OT in the First Four. Proceeded to dispatch BYU and blasted ACU. Then found a way to hang with analysts favorite pick - Alabama before crushing them in OT. The fact of the matter is that Alabama couldn't make free throws. The Crimson Tide was a ridiculously bad 11 of 25 from the charity stripe which ultimately cost them the game. Meanwhile, Michigan beat up what many analysts agreed was the best Florida State team ever! And they did it without one of their stars - Livers (Out for season). Wolverines' floor leader Smith was phenomenal, Brown was strong off the bench while Austin Davis, Wagner, Dickinson working backdoor cuts and pick and roll to perfection. Can't see UCLA beating this tough and gritty team on the glass. And Michigan is knocking down their free throws at a 76% clip. We'll roll with Michigan again. |
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03-30-21 | USC +9 v. Gonzaga | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
USC/Gonzaga 7:15: Gonzaga is surely a talented team loaded with scorers. Kispert, Suggs, Timme and Ayayi can light it up on any given evening; however, the athletic Mobley brothers don't have to take a backseat to anybody. Evan has been a beast most of the season and his brother - Isaiah- elevated his game in the NCAA Tournament; moreover, Trojans getting great backcourt play from Eddy and White. PAC 12 continues to be a money maker in this tournament - a testament to how strong this conference is. For Gonzaga, they're toying with the lightweights for most of the regular season and it could cost them here. These PAC 12 teams are underrated in their defense and USC is one of those. The 64.1 PPG the Trojans allow - good for 38th in the nation - doesn't reflect how good defensively USC is. We'll take the points with the Trojans! |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
Arkansas/Baylor 9:57: Arkansas has been fortunate to come back from double-digits in a number of games including its 12 point second half deficit to Oral Roberts on Saturday. The Hogs utilized their size by going to the paint and cleaned up the glass on the smaller Golden Eagles in the second half. This time, however, the Hogs will have their work cut out for them vs the long, athletic Bears. Bears, the #1 three point shooting team in the nation (42.9%), had an extreme off day vs a very well coached and disciplined Villanova team. Bears shot a miserable 15.5% from beyond the arc yet won and covered! Coach Drew had the Bears attack the rim in the second half and despite a sluggish outing from leading scorer Jared Butler, Mitchell and Flagler elevated their game to deliver the goods. In addition, the Bears turned up the defensive intensity to force turnovers and get out and run. Baylor not only can ring up points (#3 in nation), they can lock down in critical moments defensively. Arkansas should have trouble finding their rhythm attacking the glass vs the swift Bears' defense. Baylor the call. |