Denver is returning to the New York area after absorbing a 108-95 loss in Boston Friday night and now knowing they have to play better offensively as Im now betting they will be more aggressive with their attack in transition against a Brooklyn side that plays a efficient style of offensive hoops behind a top 10 pace and a lower tier D ranked 20th in ppg allowed at 113.4 ppg. With that said Im betting a combined score  that eclipses this Totals offering. 

Play OVER 

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Play UNDER

 The Houston  Rockets behind the leagues No.2 offence and 2nd fastest pace has averaged 128.2 points in its last six games and Im betting will have another   big effort tonight vs a 22nd ranked ppg allowed D. Meanwhile, the Suns, have allowed an average of 123.3 in their last six. But they've squeezed a pair of wins into the half-dozen, including a 139-132 overtime triumph at New Orleans on Thursday as their offence continues to show some flashes of explosiveness behind the 5th ranked offensive ppg side in the league. Im betting the Suns will do more damage here tonight against Houstons 23d ranked ppg allowed  D, in what should be a chase the leader type of affair. 

Play OVER 

Write-up (analysis):

Write-up (analysis):

This game is based on my output offensive projection numbers which estimate that both these teams will eclipse the 105+ point plateau. Note: PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average score of 240.9 ppg were scored.

The Trailblazers are 10-0 OVER L/10 as a dog off a 10+ point home win in which they shot over 50% from the field with the average combined score clicking in at 229.1 ppg. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (LA LAKERS) - a top-level team (75% or better ) playing a marginal losing team (40% to 49%), in December games are 44-17 OVER L/23 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

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Play UNDER

My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

Play  OVER 

The Thunder are a deliberate defense first team trying to find a groove. Oklahoma City ranks 22nd in ppg offensive output,  12 th in ppg allowed, and 23rd in pace. Meanwhile, the Wolves like to run and gun, but will play down to another teams pace, and with top scorers Wiggins and Towns not playing or seeing limited action and less than 100% their offensive flow will be effected tonight which favors a lower scoring totals output. 

OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-0 UNDER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

The Thunder have gone under in 6 of their L/7  as a favorite.

Play UNDER 

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Play OVER

The  Northern Illinois Huskies are 152nd in the nation in offensive rating with 102.7 and are 200th in pace of play in the country with 70.1 possessions per 40 minutes. They will once again look to grind it out vs a top teir Gaels side, that is not stranger to physical  defensive minded basketball, as only 1 of their 8 opponents this season have eclipsed the 66 point plateau against them. My own projections estimate that the visiting Huskies  will not breach the 60 point plateau, while their own defence grinds this game down into a sleepy affair that remains on the low side of the total. 

ST MARYS-CA is 29-8 UNDER  after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.ST MARYS-CA is 20-8 UNDER (as a home favorite of 12.5 to 15 points with a combined average of 127 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

OU leads the Big 12 in free throw percentage, making 76.6% of its shots from the foul stripe. Im betting we see North Texas  in constant foul trouble as this game progresses and for the Sooners to make them pay through their strong conversion rates, which will help buoy this combined score over the total. I know North Texas has played terffic D, but against this Big 12 foe Im betting their numbers will get corroded. 

 Play OVER 

My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

Oklahoma State is not a run and gun team  and operates under a defense first  concept that suffocates opposition via deliberate pace. Georgetown is not as explosive offensively as some power 5 teams, and despite of not being easily intimidated will have problems with their   flow  in transition today which will effect their out put. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 19-9 UNDER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 139.8 ppg scored. OKLAHOMA ST is 15-2 UNDER  after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combination of 140.8 ppg going on the board. OKLAHOMA ST is 11-2 UNDER  as a home favorite of 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 137.4 ppg scored.  

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (OKLAHOMA ST) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 42-16 UNDER  L5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

 UNDER

The Heat enter off a 121-110 overtime win over the Raptors on Tuesday  and are obviously on tired legs and will not Im betting have alot of energy tonight vs the Celtics and will play with a defensive mind set. Meanwhile, their hosts the Celtics are a defence first team , ranking 5th in ppg allowed behind a deliberate pace . that ranks 21st in the league. The above combination of betting leads to a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. 

BOSTON is 33-19 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 209.9 ppg which gives us more than a possession edge, making this a viable under situation. 

NBA team (MIAMI /BOSTON) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), in December games are 50-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Marylands offence is really clicking and have scored, an average of more than 81 ppg this season.  Notre Dame is averaging 77+ ppg. I know both Ds, are playing well, but Maryland in particular, has shown a propensity to be able to score against the best of defences, and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Meanwhile, Notre Dame will Im betting have to chase or be blown off the court which will result in combined score that eclipses the total.  

MARYLAND is 6-0 OVER  in home games when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  80% or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.2 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

The Clippers are ranked 5th in ppg offensive output in the NBA behind the 8th ranked pace. and 11th in ppg allowed. Meanwhile, Portland ranks 9th in ppg on offence, rank 24th in ppg allowed behind the 9th fastest pace. Tonight Im betting these teams continue their pace and offensive output numbers, and  lack of consistent defensive play and for this score to be eclipsed. 

Over is 14-5-1 in Clippers last 20 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 9-4 in Clippers last 13 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Over is 6-1 in Trail Blazers last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1 in Trail Blazers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

PORTLAND is 11-1 OVER when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. 70% or better ) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 138.2 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Lakers and the Nuggets are both playing very good defensive basketball of late at a deliberate pace. 

The Nuggets rank 1st in the league in ppg allowed at 101.8 ppg and rank 28th in pace, and just 22nd in ppg. Meanwhile, the Lakers 4th in ppg allowed and despite of the offensive talent on board rank just 12th in offensive production, behind the 17th ranked pace. 

With this game promising to be physical, and knowing what the modus operandi is of both teams  and the taxing conditions of playing in the thin air of the Mile High City it is an easy decision to make this an under recommendation.  

Under is 4-0 in Lakers last 4 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 overall.Under is 3-0-1 in Lakers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 5-0 in Lakers last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 19-7 in Lakers last 26 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 24-9 in Lakers last 33 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 13-5 in Lakers last 18 Tuesday games.Under is 35-16 in Lakers last 51 games following a ATS loss.Under is 40-19 in Lakers last 59 vs. Western Conference.Under is 29-14 in Lakers last 43 games following a straight up loss.

Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 7-1 in Nuggets last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 8-2 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 28-10 in Nuggets last 38 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 22-8 in Nuggets last 30 home games.Under is 22-8 in Nuggets last 30 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 20-8-1 in Nuggets last 29 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-3 in Nuggets last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 21-9 in Nuggets last 30 games following a ATS loss.

DENVER is 11-1 UNDER  when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.  70% or better) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 205 ppg. 

LA LAKERS are 18-4 UNDER  after failing to cover 5 or 6 of their last 7 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (DENVER) - after 2 or more consecutive unders against opponent after 3 or more consecutive unders are 126-78 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone  left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

 OVER

Sacramento plays at the 30th ranked pace in the league and 28th in ppg production but Im betting they pickup the pace tonight against a weak defensive side that allows an average of 110.1 ppg on the road this season. Also when Chicago has Zach Lavine on the court and healthy they seem to push the tempo more and that is what I expect tonight in a tilt that eclipses this total.  

SACRAMENTO in their L/30 as a favorite over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 223.9 ppg go on the board.

Over is 16-5 in Bulls last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) are 32-7 OVER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Orlando ranks 30th in ppg on offence, 3rd best in ppg allowed in the league and 29th in pace. This is a deliberate methodical team that bases their successes and failures on top tier defense and nothing will change here today vs the Warriors. Meanwhile, Golden State ranks 21st in offensive output, and will have a hard time finding a better flow here tonight which Im betting  will hinder them further and will also lead to a fairly low combined score in this contest. 

Under is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

Under is 39-18 in Magic last 57 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Orlando.

NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (ORLANDO) - a good offensive team (98-102 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (102 or more PPG), after a combined score of 175 points or less are 40-11 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My College basketball selections are indepthly researched with no stone is left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out investment decision.

 OVER 

My College basketball selections are indepthly  researched with no stone is left unturned in bringing long term winning selections to my clients. Injury reports, trends, coaching tendencies, systems, matchup discrepancies , as well as line movement and mathematical line advantages are all used to make an intelligent well thought out  investment decision.   

 Play UNDER

 MAUI INVITATIONAL - Final Rnd - Lahaina Civic Center - Maui, HI

VTech has allowed just 61.6 ppg overall, while BYU has allowed 69.2 ppg. Both offences has looked average at best, and Im betting on D being key here as both teams are on short rest so run and gun basketball will not be featured here. 

VIRGINIA TECH is 9-1 UNDER in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average score of 118,8 ppg scored.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (VIRGINIA TECH) - a very good team (+8 PPG or more differential) against an average team (+/- 3.5 PPG differential), after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game are 32-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

My . projections make this total closer to 126 thus giving us value on the under . 


MANHATTAN is 8-0 UNDER  versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 31%or less of their attempts over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 125.2 ppg scored.

RHODE ISLAND is 6-0 UNDER  in home games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or les of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 129 ppg scored

MANHATTAN is 10-1 UNDER when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 2 seasons and 6-0 UNDER on the road under the same parameters. 

In MANHATTANs last 25 non conference games the average combined score clicks in at 127.4 ppg. 

Play UNDER 

BATTLE 4 ATLANTIS - Round 1 - Imperial Arena at Atlantis Resort - Nassau

 Alabama has five players who average at least 9.8 points per game. And three of them are shooting better than 50 percent from the floor.The Crimson Tide are also a deep team. Nine players average 12.5 minutes or more per game. Alabama likes to score quickly and push the pace and the talented young men from N.Carolina will forced to reciprocate with some offensive explosiveness of their own or be blown off the court. 

Oats is 22-9 OVER versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in all games he has coached since 1997 with a combined average score of 160.8 ppg scored.

Neutral court teams against the total (N CAROLINA) - in a game involving two average shooting teams (42.5-45%), after 4 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 40% or less are 29-8 OVER L/23 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER

My college basketball selections take into a consideration a wide spectrum of information including current form, past trends, injuries, coaching tendencies, and matchup discrepancies . No stone is left unturned in bringing a winning longterm return on investment to my clients. 

 Play UNDER

CANCUN CHALLENGE - Round 1 - Hard Rock Riviera Maya - Cancun, Mexico

South Carolina has allowed just 59.4 ppg so far this season and their opponents Wichita State just 58 ppg. Both teams modus operandi focuses on a tough defensive posture and nothing changes here tonight in Mexico. 

WICHITA ST is 8-1 UNDER  versus poor 3 point shooting teams - making 31% or less of their attempts over the last 2 seasons.

WICHITA ST is 7-0 UNDER on Tuesday nights over the last 2 seasonswith a combined 124.3 ppg scored.Martin is 7-0 UNDER  in a neutral court game where the total is 130 to 134.5 in all games he has coached. 

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (S.CAROLINA/WICHITA ST) - in a game involving two dominant rebounding teams ( 6 or more reb/game) are 64-22 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (WICHITA ST) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play UNDER 

Detroit is on tired legs and in now way shape or form are the ready to run and gun here tonfight.
DETROIT is 14-3 UNDER when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons.
Meanwhile, Orlando has proven themselves inconsistent this season, overall but the one thing they have shown consistency with is their defense first mentality. Orlando ranks 29th in offensive output, 3rd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace, and that the kind of tone this game Im betting will offer once again. 

NBA team (DETROIT) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) are 53-20 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA  Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (ORLANDO) - well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days, in a game involving two bad teams (25% to 40%) str 29-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

It will be battle of 5-0 in-state teams when Kent State plays at No. 10 Ohio State in Columbus on Monday.

Ohio State is a defence first team, allowing a minuscule 52 ppg  but Im betting Kent will push them to open a bit, behind a offence that is averaging 83.4 ppg. This will see this combined score eclipse what my own projections estimate is a total that is off by 2 possessions. 

Play on the OVER 

MAUI INVITATIONAL - Round 1 - Lahaina Civic Center - Maui, HI

Georgia is averaging 92 ppg on offence while Dayton is averaging 89.7 ppg. 

CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 150.5  points (DAYTON/ GEORGIA) - in a game involving 2 up-tempo teams (60 or more shots/game), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game are 70-30 OVER L/23 seasons for a70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

CAYMAN ISLANDS CLASSIC - Round 1 - John Gray Gymnasium - Cayman Islands

Loyola Chicago is a defence first team, that when they are fresh and well rested can  really make life miserable on opposing offenses. Especially on a methodical low scoring side like South Florida  that is averaging just  63 ppg while allowing just 60 ppg.  Note: LOYOLA-IL is 12-3 UNDER  in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 3 seasons with the combined average score of 123.1 ppg scored. This tilt has me leaning on the under as a viable investment option. 

USF HC Moser is 18-9 UNDER  in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 points/game as the coach of LOYOLA-IL with a combined average of 117.7 ppg scored. 

LOYOLA-IL is 12-2 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.

CBB Neutral court teams against the total (LOYOLA-IL) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (63 or less PPG), after a win by 15 points or more are 23-5 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NIT TIP OFF - Round 1 - HP Field House - Lake Buena Vista, FL

Yale's season of high drama continued in Saturday's 58-56 loss at unbeaten Penn State last time out. The Bulldogs have now played 3 OT games and must be on tired legs and will be no mood to run and gun here, and instead Im betting on a more methodical approach vs Western Michigan this afternoon. Yale has excelled at the defensive end of the floor, limiting its opponents to just 34.9 percent shooting from the field and 25.5 percent from three-point range. More of the same on tap today as this tilt stays on the low side of the number. 

W MICHIGAN is 7-0 UNDER  in road games versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 2 seasons.

CAYMAN ISLANDS CLASSIC - Round 1 - John Gray Gymnasium - Cayman Islands

These teams met last season with the final score clicking in at 88-68 at Fort Collins with NM State winning. Imbetitng on a similar combined offensive output here today in the Bahamas. 

Medved is 11-3 OVER  after a non-conference game as the coach of COLORADO ST with a combined average score of 150.2 ppg going on the board. 

Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 neutral site games.

Play OVER 

The Kings have put up 100 or fewer points in three of their past four games. thanks in part to being with Bogdan Bogdanovic who injured his hip and also because of filling the spot of offensive minded D'Aron Fox with defensive specialist  Cory Joseph. The Kings because of being short handed have been depending on their top tier brand of defense to remain competitive and that will be even more prevalent here tonight against a run and gun Wizards side. This projected game plan Im betting leads to a score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-1 in Kings last 7 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 overall.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 Sunday games.Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 8-3 in Kings last 11 road games.Under is 8-3 in Kings last 11 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.Under is 37-18 in Kings last 55 vs. Eastern Conference.

Under is 4-0 in Wizards last 4 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Washington.Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Play on the UNDER 

No stone is left uncovered in making a advantageous calculation on the outcome of the sporting event. The process includes using style of play , trends, injury reports , and situational factors. The entire process of bringing winning long term selections to clients guarantees long term profitable results.

Play UNDER

Both these teams have shown to have some very porous defences, and both sides know they need to fix that situation, and are working hard to get stops .  Wizards star guard Bradley Beal told reporters. QUOTE:We compete hard enough to win every game. We are top five in offense. We know that is not the problem. We just have to get stops." END QUOTE: Im betting tonight San Antonio trys to reverse a ugly 6 game win streak, by paying more attention to defence vs an explosive offensive side, which in turn will see a slighter slower pace than the Wizards would like to see.  

NBA Teams like the Spurs are 1-17  UNDER  as a road favorite when they are off two games in which they allowed 110+ points with the combined average score of 216.8 ppg scored. SAN ANTONIO is 18-8 UNDER  after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 215.4 ppg going on the board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (WASHINGTON) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 26-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SAN ANTONIO) - after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 110 points or more 3 straight games are 60-26 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER

Sacramento has gone under in 3 straight games and have not allowed more than 99 points in any of those tilts . The Kings own the 29th ranked pace, and 28th ranked offensive output. Look for more methodical action tonight, as they look to slow down the high flying Phoenix Suns! 

Walton is 21-8 UNDER  in home games after having won 2 of their last 3 games in all games he has coached since 1996 with a combined average of 210 ppg scored. 

The Suns are 0-14 UNDER L/14 on the road when the line is within 3 of pick off a game as a favorite facing an opponent with an assist-to-turnover ratio less than 1.5 with the verage combined score clicking in at 193.8 ppg. The Suns are 0-13 UNDER  off a loss as a favorite when they are off two games in which their opponent had double-digit steals with a combined average of 193.1 ppg scored. 

NBA Teams are 8-40-2  UNDER when the line is within 3 of pick with less than two days rest off a win as a home dog facing an opponent taking more than one third of their shots from beyond the arc with a combined average score of 207 ppg scored.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - after going under the total by more than 18 points in their previous game, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 31-10 UNDER  L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play UNDER 

Arkansas put 91 plus points on the board vs Rice in their first game of the season, and are more than capable of repeating that performance here on their own home floor tonight in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total. 

TEXAS SOUTHERN is 6-0 OVER versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 163.4 ppg scored.TEXAS SOUTHERN is 9-2 OVER  when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 169 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

The Raptors were showing signs of fatigue Saturday and Pascal Siakam had an off night with 15 points on 6-for-24 shooting with five turnovers and with only one day rest in between games, I sure their still a bit exhausted. Also being without injured Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka. defence and a slower pace has been key for the Raptors and that will once again be the case tonight here  on home court as they get reacclimatized  to being on home court after an extensive 5 game road trip. Tonight Im betting the Raps will hold the Hornets to under their season ppg offensive average of 106 ppg, and for they themselves to have a limited out put because of being short handed. 

Under is 3-1-1 in Hornets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.Under is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 Monday games.Under is 5-0 in Raptors last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - after going under the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning record on the season are 475-337 UNDER L/23 seasons for a long term 59% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the NY Knicks are struggling, and both are looking at this like a winnable game, and both Im betting will be primed to be aggressive here in transition which Im betting helps this combined score get over this total. Yes, I know both sides have been creating unders of late, but that wont be the case here tonight. Note: NYK L/47 home games have seen a combined average of 217.8 ppg scored.CLEVELAND in their L/44 games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 218.1 ppg scored.

Over is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.

Play OVER 

After scoring only 50 points in a loss to Maryland last time out, Im betting the home team comes out here ready to get back into a offensive groove vs a Hartford side that they can light up. After playing the Terps this will seem like a walk in the park  metaphorically speaking. Hartford will also have to open up offensively with some fireworks of their own or be blown of the court which Im betting leads to a fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total. 

OAKLAND is 62-38 OVER in all home games since 1997 with a combined average of 155.3 ppg. 

Play OVER 

My owns projections make this Totals closer to 155 thus giving us value with a over wager. 

GEORGETOWN is 12-3 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 165.9 ppg scored. 

CBB Road teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GEORGIA ST) - after a game being outrebounded by opponent by 15 or more are 174-106 OVER L/23 seasons for a long term 62% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the OVER 

Washington has the 3rd best offence in the league the 28th worst D ppg allowed, and 8th fastest pace. This is almost always recipe for a high scoring back and forth tilt. Meanwhile, Orlanso has seen an uptick in their offensive outputs of late, and Im betting they will need that extra offence against a team that plays wide open run and gun ball. 

The Wizards are 19-0 OVER with less than two days rest off a road game in which they shot over 50% from the field with a combined average of 232.2 ppg going on the scoreboard. 

WASHINGTON is 10-1 OVER  off a road win over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (ORLANDO) - after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last three games are 83-49 OVER L/5 seasons for a 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Oklahoma State in their usual methodical ways will pound the glass with their big bodies in what Im betting they will force into a a very physical affair. 

OKLAHOMA ST is 18-8 UNDER  versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 8-1 UNDER  versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 11-3 UNDER  in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. OKLAHOMA ST is 13-2 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.OKLAHOMA ST is 23-6 UNDER in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

OKLAHOMA ST is 6-0 UNDER after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons

YALE is 10-2 UNDER versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 42% or less over the last 3 seasons.

Play UNDER 

Kawhi Leonard and Amir Coffey are expected to miss tonight for the Clippers which will effect their flow. Meanwhile, Atlanta is also short handed with a boat load full of injuries, something that will also effect their flow, especially since they will be on tired legs playing their their 4th straight road game in west coast road trip in less than a week. 

The Clippers are 0-5 UNDER L/5 as a home favorite with a combined average of 199 ppg going on the board. 

Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 home games.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a ATS loss.Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss.Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Clippers last 9 overall.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

The Celtics won't be at full strength for the trip out west, and for at least a month after that, with the loss of high-scoring guard Gordon Hayward to a broken left hand earlier in the week. Im betting this will hamper the offensive flow of the Celtics and they will take a more defensive, stance for a while to compensate for their offensive loss. Tonight because of this Im betting this Total is slightly bloated with the value towards the under. BOSTON i in 13 road games    after 6 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined score of 216.1 ppg.

These teams have gone under in the L/4 meetings. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7 or better  PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after a combined score of 215 points or more are 33-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (BOSTON) - a very good team (7  or better PPG differential) against a terrible team (7 or less PPG differential), after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games are 23-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Washington enters this game ranked 8th in pace in the league 8th in ppg(115.6) , and 28th in ppg allowed(120). Meanwhile, Minnesota is ranked 5th in pace, 4th in offensive output (117.2), and 25th in ppg allowed(116.2). Its obvious both sides run and gun with reckless abandon, while exhibiting an inability or disinterest in playing D. It is what it is. A far is this total is concerned, and how high it might seem, you have to remember this is the new NBA , and totals like this will show up more and more often as the league continues its quest to entertain the public. There can be under value with bloated totals, but this one not one of them. 

WASHINGTON is 9-1 OVER  versus good foul drawing teams - attempting 27 or more  free throws/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 244.6 ppg scored.

MINNESOTA is 11-2 OVER against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons. Wolves average 119.2 ppg and opposition  average 114.7 ppg. Based on a aggregate output system I use, 3-6 . points per team is projected above these numbers making this a viable over situation based on past performance trends and current form.

Play OVER 

Orlando are No.1 in ppg allowed in the NBA behind the 30th ranked pace. San Antonio is currently struggling and Im sure the Magic game plan will be to further take them out of their game with a suffocating physical effort which Im betting will contribute to a lower scoring affair.

ORLANDO is 27-15 UNDER versus good shooting teams - making 46% or better of their shots over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SAN ANTONIO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 12 points in two consecutive games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season ARE 39-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

South Carolina improved to 2-0 on the young season when it posted a 66-32 victory over Wyoming at Colonial Life Arena on Sunday behind a top tier D, which Im betting will once again play a smothering style of basketball.  The Gamecock defense is holding opponents to just 24.0 percent from the field thus far, which leads the SEC and ranks third nationally. Needless to say, I expect Cleveland will not do much offensive damage here and only put up 50 points vs Minnesota  on the road in their opener and just 53 points on the board vs Missouri state as visitors. Clevelands output and Carolina D and pace make this an under wager.

Under is 4-1 in Vikings last 5 non-conference games.

Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 overall.Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-0 in Gamecocks last 6 home games.Under is 5-0 in Gamecocks last 5 games following a ATS win.Under is 7-1 in Gamecocks last 8 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game.Under is 7-2 in Gamecocks last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Under is 9-3 in Gamecocks last 12 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.Under is 14-5 in Gamecocks last 19 Friday games. 

Play UNDER

Phoenix is 8th in pace in the NBA and 6th in offensive output,(116.6) and will push all comers into speeding up their game, and opening up or be blown off the court. That is exactly the situation we have here tonight as Atlanta visits in their 3rd  western road game in 5 nights. Run and gun until the clock tips in at zero. The two most recent meetings between these teams last season saw 230 and 232 combined points cored.

Atlanta has gone over in 3 straight games with the combined score of 237.7 ppg scored. Suns have gone over in 4 straight with a combined average of 235.8 ppg scored.

ATLANTA is 12-2 OVER after 2 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 249.3 ppg going on the board. 

PHOENIX is 15-4 OVER after 2 straight games where they attempted 90 or more shots over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 232.9 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (PHOENIX) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-3 OVER L/5 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Seton Hall will play without star guard Myles Powell and that will adversely effect their offensive flow of a team that is defensive minded in nature. Meanwhile, Michigan State is expected play without senior guard Joshua Langford which will also effect the Spartans offence as he compliments star guard Cassius Winston.  With that said, Im taking the under here in a game that should be grinding and physical in nature.

MICHIGAN ST is 7-0 UNDER  after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less over the last 2 seasons which was the case in a 100-47 beatdown of Binghamton last time out. 

Play UNDER 

The Lakers played a aggressive game vs the Suns last night in a big win, that saw the team spread the ball around . Note: The Lakers are 0-14 L/14 UNDER at home after a game as a road favorite in which they had 6+ double digit scorers with a combined average of 193.3 ppg going on the board. Now on tired legs I look for a regression tonight, and for this contest vs the Golden State Warriors to end up on the lower side of the total. 

LA LAKERS are 10-1 UNDER in home games vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 218.5 ppg scored and are are 11-2 UNDER  in home games versus terrible teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 208.1 ppg scored.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - a top-level team ( 75% or better) playing a terrible team (25% or worse ) are 24-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER

Oklahoma City is thundering into top form offensively of late, and as result of their decent Fg conversion rate and uptick in pace have scored 112, 1114, and 119 respectively, with all three going over as their D gets looser allowing 121, 108 , and 121 points. Tonight Im betting on that current form to continue which will force a capable Indiana side  that is in top form to push forward offensively and upping their pace and  gaining on a recent output of 120, 121, 112, 109 points  in their L/4 with 3 of those 4 games eclipsing the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a winning team are 40-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

  The Jazz are off a hard fought battle vs Milwaukee last time out(103-100), and subsequent win, and will be in a bit of an emotional letdown state here in Golden State , which Im betting sees them set an even slower pace than usual ( Utah ranks 1st in pace in the NBA). The Jazz are 0-11-1 UNDER L/12  since Apr 20, 2019 going under by more than 17 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 198.1 ppg, with none of the games, eclipsing this current listed total. Also The Jazz are  0-5 L/5 UNDER  on the road with a combined average of 193.4 ppg going on the board. 

Meanwhile Golden State prepares to play their 4th game in 6 nights, which includes 3 straight road games,  and will now also be on tired legs and happy to also set a slower pace.

UTAH is 16-4 UNDER after a win by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 209.4 ppg.

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - cold team - having lost 8 or more of their last 10 games, struggling team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 45-19 UNDER L/5seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE) - outscored by their opponents by 9+ points/game, after allowing 105 points or more 4 straight games are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

The defending champion Toronto Raptors take on the   Lakers in Los Angeles on Sunday short handed with injuries. Two of their top performers went down with injuries in the club's win over the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday.Guard Kyle Lowry, the Raptors' second-leading scorer at 21.8 points per game, sustained a fracture in his left thumb in the first quarter, and forward Serge Ibaka went down with a severe right ankle sprain in the second quarter. Considering this , Im betting their flow will be disrupted, and knowing that they cant run and gun with the explosive Lakers tonight, a more defensive physical posture will be implemented by the coaching staff which will help keep this tilt on the lower side of this total. 

NBA team (LA LAKERS/TORONTO) - in a game involving two top-level teams ( 75% or better), on Sunday games are 40-14 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

New Orleans is off a loss last night against the Toronto Raptors and will not be in any shape to play defence, tonight against the Hornets something thats been an issue for them all season long, as they allow the worst ppf average in the league ( 124 ppg) behind the 5th best offence ( 117.4 ppg) and 3rd ranked pace. Meanwhile, Charlotte ranks 23rd in ppg, allowed and 24th in defensive rating and will have to open here tonight against this type of wide open team if they hope to notch a win. Note: The Pelicans are 16-0-1 OVER L/17 with less than two days rest coming off a loss with the average combined score clicking in at 250.1 ppg. Every game during this extensive trend run have all eclipsed the current high total. NEW ORLEANS is 12-3 OVER  in road games after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 240 ppg scored. Over is 11-5 in Pelicans last 16 games playing on 0 days rest.ver is 4-0 in Hornets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings.

Play OVER 

The Toronto Raptors and the New Orleans Pelicans opened the season against each other nearly three weeks ago.with the Raptors taking a  130-122 victory  in overtime . Since than both have taken part in some high scoring games  which in some ways is skewing this total to the high side, which offers value for under bettors such as ourselves. ( It it was not for OT the above mentioned tilt would have stayed under the total)

 Gentry is 36-19 OVER  at home when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of NEW ORLEANs with a combined average of 219.1 ppg scored. 

The Raptors have not eclipsed the total in their L/7 as a road favorite with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (NEW ORLEANS) - in a game involving two good shooting teams (45.5-47.5%), after a game making 12 or more 3 point shots are 50-9 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Northeastern won their opener by a 72-67 count  vs Boston U while Harvard won their opening tilt by a 84-27 count vs MIT. Both teams modus operandi is based on a solid D, and a methodical pace, which Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt tonight that remains on the low side of the total. 

Under is 4-1 in Huskies last 5 overall.Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-0 in Huskies last 7 home games. Amaker is 20-9 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better as the coach of HARVARD with a combined average of 133.6 ppg going on the board.HARVARD is 24-11 UNDER in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997 with a combined average of 131.1 ppg going on the board.HARVARD iin their L/15 after a combined score of 125 points or less over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 133.1 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

VETERANS CLASSIC - Alumni Hall - Annapolis, MD

The Wildcats return all five starters from a 24-10 club that finished second in the Atlantic 10 with a 14-4 conference record last season. This team can really light it up in cohesive fashion, and tonight their going to play to Auburns speed and possibly beat them at their own game in a tilt I have pegged to go over the total. 

Davidson will be playing its season opener after running past Glenville State 102-94 in an exhibition.

Over is 6-1 in Tigers last 7 overall.Over is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 neutral site games.Over is 4-1 in Tigers last 5 non-conference games.

AUBURN is 15-5 OVER  when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.2 ppg scored. 

Play on the OVER 

Early season action will have defences in better from than shooters. This is strong instate rivalry that should be hard fought, which will dictate a slower, more physical affair that stays on the low side of the total. 

Under is 9-1 in Blazers last 10 vs. Sun Belt.Under is 17-7-1 in Blazers last 25 Thursday games.Under is 51-25-2 in Blazers last 78 non-conference games.

 Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 overall.

Under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings.

UAB is 50-30 UNDER  as a road favorite or pick since 1997 with a combined average `of 137.1 ppg going on the board.

Play UNDER 

Indiana is exhausted as they prepare to play their 3rd game in 4 nights, and are off a 122-120 OT loss in Memphis last night. Tonight playing defence could easily become an issue on tired legs  in a game I have pegged to be a wide open affair vs a Washington side, that is ranked 26th in ppg allowed on  D, and 5th in ppg on offence and 8th in pace. 

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 vs. NBA Central.

Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.Over is 5-0 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

WASHINGTON is 30-16 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 231.9 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

CHAMPIONS CLASSIC - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY 

Tonight’s No. 1 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Kentucky has a bit of a tainted public leaning totals number attached to it. ( The public loves to bang the over on marquee games) My number on this total is closer to 134 to 136, thus according to my projections we have value to the under. Note: Both teams have been hit with the injury bug, and because of personnel improvisations Im betting a more muted flow and pace which directly effect this total to the under.  

CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 130 and 139.5 points (MICHIGAN ST) - good rebounding team from last season - outrebounded opponents by 4+ per game, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Los Angeles has reeled off five straight victories since dropping the season opener against their intra-city rival Los Angeles Clippers behind super stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis and Im betting will have an above average output offensively today vs a struggling Chicago Bulls team allowing an average of 110.3 ppg. Meanwhile, LAL has been allowing 108 ppg on the road this season, and tonight I look for the chasing Bulls to aggressively open up to keep track on the scoreboard, which will result in combined score that eclipses this total. 

Play OVER 

The Wizards enter this game against the Pistons having lost three straight while giving up an average of 138 points. Washington is ranked 28th in ppg allowed, and 3rd and pace and 7th in offence. The Wizards come at you in run and gun fashion, and essentially force you into opening up. Meanwhile, the Detroit Pistons are currently ranked 21st in ppg allowed, and 24th in defensive efficiency, and if they are going to win they have to up their17th ranked pace here tonight in a game I have pegged to fly over the total. 

Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 road games.Over is 7-1 in Pistons last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 overall.

Over is 6-0 in Wizards last 6 home games.Over is 8-0 in Wizards last 8 vs. NBA Central.Over is 8-1 in Wizards last 9 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home. Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 7-2 in Wizards last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 21-7 in Wizards last 28 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-6 in Wizards last 23 games following a straight up loss.

NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games against opponent after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 25-2 OVER L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

 Utah has the best D in the league so far this season ranking No.1 in ppg allowed at 94 ppg, and rank 28th in pace and 27th in ppg scored at 101. Its obvious what their formula for success is and Im betting on nothing changing tonight . Meanwhile, we all know about the Clippers and super star Kawhi Leonard, but Utah can slow down the most potent of teams , and isolate them in transition , which Im betting will be the case again tonight. With that said, Im betting a combined score that fails to eclipse this total. 

Utahs L/9 games dating back to last season, have gone under the total with the combined average score of 196.2 ppg going on the board.

NBA team (UTAH/LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), first half of the season are 102-47 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA CLIPPERS) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 36-12 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record are 84-44 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

Two teams that are struggling to start their season go head to head tonight .Both  entered Saturday tied for 27th in the NBA in assists per game (19.3). The Sacramento Kings issues have predicated on their lack of scoring consistency from downtown and at the charity stripe. Meanwhile, the Knicks the Kings hosts tonight, are ranked 28th in ppg on offence, and 27th slowest in pace, and depend on a hardcore work ethic to try to stay competitive. Both teams current structural inconsistencies make for a rocky flow, and Im betting tonight that will translate into a lower scoring affair that will not eclipse this total.

The Knicks have gone under in 8 of their L/9 dating back to last season, with a combined average score of 206.9 ppg scored, and have gone under 4 straight times at home, with the with a combined average of 210.7 ppg scored.

NEW YORK is 15-4 UNDER  vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 211.5 ppg going on the board.NEW YORK is 13-4 UNDER  when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 2 season with a combined average of 212.1 ppg. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (SACRAMENTO) - pathetic team - shooting 43% or less with a defense of 46% or better on the season, poor rebounding team - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game are 28-8 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Joel Embiid is expected to miss tonight game for Philadelphia because of suspension, but the way the Sixers are built that wont slow down their offense or pace here this evening. Note: The Sixers are ranked 3rd in PACE this season (107.0). Also PORTLAND in their L/41 games  when the total is 210 to 222 over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 233 ppg go on the board. Full steam ahead here in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

PHILADELPHIA is 9-1 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average of 232.7 ppg scored.

NBA  team (PORTLAND) - good defensive team - shooting pct defense of 43%or less on the season, after 2 straight games making 9 or more 3 point shots are 113-62 OVER  L/5 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

Cleveland took out the  Chicago Bulls 117-111 this past Wednesday. The win marked Cleveland's third consecutive game with an uptick in its scoring, from 85 in the opener to 110 vs. Indiana then 112 in a loss at the Milwaukee Bucks. There is upward offensive momentum at play here tonight in my over call on this tilt.  Meanwhile, Indiana (1-3) concluded a three-game road swing on Wednesday, scoring its first win of the 2019-20 season, 118-108 at the Brooklyn Nets. Both sides have shown slower paces so far this season, but their defensive weaknesses , and current uptrends offensively make this a solid over wager. 

The Cavaliers are 7-2 OVER as a road dog with a combined average of 228.2 ppg scored.

Anomaly or not its interesting to note that CLEVELAND is 9-1 OVER  in road games on Friday nights over the last 2 seasons.with a combined average of 231.2 ppg scored.

San Antonio has been off since beating the visiting Portland Trail Blazers on Monday to improve to 3-0 and are very fresh for this tilt vs the Clippers and should be very ready to press the action vs a LA Clippers side they matchup well against. With a rested Kawhi Leonard in the Clippers lineup they will also be ready to reciprocate in a what Im betting will be a run and gun affair. 

The L/3 meetings here in LA have all eclipsed the total.

LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 OVER  in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons with the combined average score of those 25 games clicking in at 236.6 ppg. 

SAN ANTONIO is 14-3 OVER  in a road game where the total is 220 to 229.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 239.4 ppg scored. 

Play OVER 

We have a huge talent disparity here in this game featuring Memphis and the LA Lakers and Im betting the rebuilding Grizzlies output will be muted, and their over all game plan will be a more  conservative one , than they have shown so far this season, knowing what they are up against. With that said, Im betting we have a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. Note : It must also be noted that there seems to be a concerted effort from the Lakers to be a all around team this season.

LAL are ranked 3rd in ppg allowed this season, and 20th in offence, behind the 28th ranked pace. 

The Lakers are 2-7 L/9 as a home favorite with the average combined score clicking in at 214.2 ppg.

LA LAKERS are 21-7 UNDER  as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (LA LAKERS) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 29-5 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the UNDER 

Utah is a defence first team with a blue collar attitude, and Im betting that will be on full display here this evening in Phoenix. Its early in the season but the Jazz are ranked first in defence allowing 90.3 ppg and are ranked 27th on offence, but the tell tale tape shows them methodically operating with a 28th ranked pace, which is in part indicative of their on court  conservative philosophical mindset. Meanwhile, the Suns are ranked 12th in ppg allowed and 14th in pace and should be on tired legs and in a regressionary offensive mode, after taking part in consecutive hard fought back  forth affairs vs Denver and the LA Clippers.Add to that both teams are playing their 4th game in 6 nights and are certainly on tired legs which in turn will also effect the pace and output of this tilt to the low side of the totals number. 

Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 overall.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 vs. Western Conference.Under is 6-0 in Jazz last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 9-1 in Jazz last 10 Monday games.Under is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 9-3 in Jazz last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games playing on 1 days rest.Under is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 games following a straight up win.

Under is 5-1 in Suns last 6 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.Under is 4-1 in Suns last 5 games following a straight up win. .Under is 16-5 in Suns last 21 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-2 in Suns last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Phoenix.

PHOENIX is 9-1 UNDER  in home games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 213.3 ppg.

UTAH is 31-13 UNDER  after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 214.5 ppg going on the score board. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a home win, team that had a losing record last season are 27-4 UNDER L/23 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after scoring 130 points or more are 36-12 UNDER 23 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

The Suns will play host to the Clippers on Saturday in their second game without key starter  Ayton, and will miss his point production, but overall, this Im betting helps their defence. Ayton has never been known for his defensive play and is also known as a defensive liability.  Add to that the Suns, played last night and will be on tired legs after they lost l in OT by a 108-107 count in the high altitude of  Denver which in itself is exhausting .  So here in LA this evening, Im looking for a tempered effort from the Suns, against what is an explosive Clippers team. This Im betting leads to a much lower scoring tilt than the linesmakers expect. Note: HC Williams in 213 career games when playing against a team with a winning record in all games he has coached has seen a combined average of 192.6 ppg scored.

Play UNDER 

Last time out Philadelphia showed their defensive abilities when they limited Boston  to 36.7 percent shooting overall and 26.9 percent from 3-point range, and are more than capable of a shut down performance here vs Detroit on the road . Meanwhile the Motown Pistons, are off dropping their home opener to Atlanta 117-100 as chalk. There was a lack of good defence, and offence in that tilt, and HC Casey was particularly unhappy with the Pistons D, and tonight Im betting he sets out to correct that. QUOTE:"Our defense (Thursday) was porous and you put that along with bad shooting in the second half, that's a bad recipe," coach Dwane Casey said. END QUOTE.

DETROIT is 17-6 UNDER off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons are with a combined average of 209.1 ppg scored. 

76ers- Joel Embiid is "?" Saturday vs Detroit ( Ankle )

Pistons -Blake Griffin is out indefinitely ( Hamstring )

Play on the UNDER 

Butler, Miami's biggest offseason acquisition, missed Wednesday's season-opening win for the birth of his daughter and will miss Saturday's game against the Bucks and as a result  will effectively curtail the Heats offensive output. The Heats L/7 road games dating back to last season have seen a combined average of 216 ppg go on the board.

The Heats usual motus operandi is based on playing staunch D which will be in effect here, vs the explosive Milwaukee Bucks.

Long term historical trend: MIAMI is 563-469 L/1031 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record with a combined average of 189.1 ppg scored over a very extensive period of time.MIAMI is 103-74 UNDER  as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points with a combined average of 186.8 ppg going on the board.

Play on the UNDER 

Both teams will take the court with revenge motivation: the Clippers on an opponent that ended their season last April; the Warriors on Leonard, who denied Golden State a three-peat while leading the Toronto Raptors to the championship in June. With that said,Im expecting a spirited back and forth game with a boatload full of points going on the board. 

 Over is 7-2 L/9 meetings at Golden State.

Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 games following a ATS win.Over is 10-1 in Clippers last 11 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 6-2 in Clippers last 8 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 road games.Over is 12-5 in Clippers last 17 Thursday games.Over is 14-6 in Clippers last 20 overall.Over is 13-6 in Clippers last 19 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 games following a straight up win.Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 games following a ATS win.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 overall.Over is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 /WARRIORS (LA CLIPPERS) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-13 OVER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Im projecting that this big man crew of Philadelphia to really push forward here this Wednesday night in attempt to assert their standing in the East.  I also  expect a take no prisoners type of affair with alot more points going on the board than the linesmakers and public might expect. In the past Boston has been able to slow down Joel Embiid, thanks to the work of Al Horford and Aron Baynes’  , and now that both are gone, Im expecting Embiid to explode offensively and carry his team forward with maximum momentum   The revamped Celtics will have to follow suit and open up, with some offense of their own,  or be blown off the court, which Im betting helps us get over the Number. 

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA/BOSTON) - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, vs. division opponents are 28-7 OVER L/23 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play OVER 

The public right out of the gate loves the over here in this Battle of LA game  based in part to the concept that  LAL super stars Davis and James will almost single hand-idly eclipse this total all by themselves.(Tongue in cheek) But Im betting the chemistry between these guys is over blown just like this total based on perceptions. Instead Im betting on Lakers sturdy D, to be key. I know the Clippers can also run and gun, but Im betting that wont be the case here tonight as they devise a game plan to slow down Davis and James and the fast break explosiveness of  Alex Caruso and Kuzma, resulting in a more tempered effort by the Clippers in transition. 

Under is 8-3 in Lakers last 11 vs. Western Conference.Under is 5-1 in Lakers last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of LA Lakers's last 19 games when playing LA Clippers.

Play on the UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be intense. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the linesmakers are estimating to be close. 

The Raptors are 2-9-2 UNDER L/11 on the road with a combined average of 210.2 ppg scored.

Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 7-2 in Raptors last 9 Thursday games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games.Under is 9-3-1 in Raptors last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 7-3 in Raptors last 10 vs. NBA Pacific.Under is 7-3-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 8-3 in Warriors last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-2 in Warriors last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less ARE 78-41 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - TOR Leads 3-1

The Raptors have played a physical gritty style of basketball these entire play offs that keys its offence in transition and here in the NBA finals have really pressured the Golden State Warriors, much like they did vs Sixers and the Bucks . The success of the Raptors flow busting modus operandi Im betting will not change here today in a game that promises to be a up North rumble. One team looking for their first ever championship and the other a defending champion on their last legs scratching and clawing to survive. There will be fireworks, but not of the offensive kind, in a game the lines-makers are estimating to be close .

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (TORONTO) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the seasons are 32-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - TOR Leads 2-1

The Warriors uncharacteristically allowed 123 points in  Game 3 of this series vs the Raptors which was just  the fourth time they have allowed 120 points or more in the 2019 playoffs. In the two previous play off campaigns the Warriors allowed more than 120 points just 3 times in total, so Im betting the game 3 anomaly will not be repeated as will as a mean to the regression to the norm for the Raptors offence  after shooting the lights out in game 3 ( 40% from 3 point land, 30+ assists ). With Klay Thompson returning to the floor for game 4, the dynamic of the Dubs defence will return which HC Kerr will key on in a very important game . Also Durant will be out tonight as well, for the Warriors which has diminished their offensive firepower as compared to when he plays, so D will be very important element for Golden State to even this series. When Durant plays the Dubs average 116.5 ppg on offence and when he sits   they average 6.1 ppg less at 110.4 ppg.

In the 48 times Durant as not played because of injury or personal issues , the Total is 30-18  UNDER for a 63% conversion rate for bettors with the   staying under the total by 5.6 ppg.When Durant is not playing and Curry is in the lineup, the under is 26-15 fora 64% conversion rate for bettors   staying under the total by 5.3 ppg. 

Note:The Raptors previous to game 3  were 1-8-2 UNDER  on the road  in the post season with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg scored.

I keep hammering the under in this series, and I could drastically change my mind based on todays results. However, keep in mind  Im not being swayed by a small game 3 sample size. So lets attack the under again.

Play UNDER 

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - Series tied at 1-1

Toronto Im betting will continue to play scrappy physical ball here on the road, against the run and gun Dubs. They practiced this in both series against the Bucks and the Sixers and nothing will change tonight in Oakland.The Raptors are 1-8-2 UNDER since Apr 03, 2019 on the road with a combined average score of 209.8 ppg going on the board. Meanwhile, Golden State's D is very under rated and recently in these play offs held two explosive offences Portland and Houston to 99 and 94 points respectively here at home. More strong stopping capabilities Im betting will be on full display here in game 3.

 .Under is 8-2-1 in Raptors last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Under is 6-2 in Warriors last 8 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-3 in Warriors last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Under is 13-6 in Warriors last 19 home games.

Play UNDER 

Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors Game 2 - NBA Finals

The Raptors who have owned the best half court D in the postseason  did well in game 1 by focusing their attention on Curry and Thompson and with no Durant on the floor the Raptors should continue to be effective slowing down the splash brothers again. Right now the Warriors just don't have enough outlets, and the Dubs HC Kerr know s this , and being the top tier director and  game facilitator he is Im betting the  ball coach will have his  D prepared to play a more guarded transitional game that will help this score stay on the low side of the total. Also it is highly unlikely key Raptors players like Pascal Siakam will score anywhere near what they did in game one, and that the Dinos offensive output is also curtailed in a game that Im betting stays on the low side of the number. 

Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 Sunday games.Under is 6-1 in Warriors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 5-1-1 in Warriors last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.

Play UNDER

NBA Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

The Raptors enter this game ranked 8th in points per game allowed in the league and 15th ranked pace. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors rank 13th in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams have a great deal of offensive talent, but both also have some gritty defensive players. During these play offs the Raptors have made teams like Milwaukee and Philadelphia look less than fluid thanks to their ability to break the flow of their opponents, and Im sure that same formula will be in place Thursday night.It must also be noted that Golden State despite of their reputation as gunslingers also have the ability to play a top tier brand of D, and that Im betting will also be on display.  With that said, Im expecting a chippy physical affair here in Toronto and a combined score that stays on the low side of the total. 

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (GOLDEN STATE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off a home win are 37-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play under 

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

The Raptors have made the Bucks look bad in the last two meetings on this series. It must be noted that Milwaukee has stayed UNDER 10 straight times with rest when they are off two double-digit ATS losses and the line is  -3 to a pick. Overall  in this series the Bucks and the Raptors have struggled offensively .In game 5 the ugliness of this series was highlighted as  Toronto went 31-of-84 from the field while the Bucks were 38-of-84. The Raptors actually made seven fewer FGs, but they came out on top because they made twelve more charity stripe conversions than the Bucks. Tonight with so much on the line, I expect this to be a very physical game that stays on the low side of the total.

NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite of 7 or more against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 36-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER

Western Conference Finals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - STL Leads 3-2

The Raptors looked clumsy and less than fluent offensively in their last game vs the Bucks a OT win , and have actually been less than effective offensively for large portions of these play offs. Im betting that trend will continue tonight. The Raptors over all flow has also effected their opponents like a virus, as has been evident in this series vs the Milwaukee Bucks and the previous series vs the Philadelphia 76ers . Both the Toronto and Milwaukee   converted at less than 40% from the filed in game 3. Note: The Bucks have gone under 10 straight times when coming off a road loss in where they shot less than 40% from the field while  the Raptors  have gone under 7 straight times  in post season play after a game as chalk in which they held their opponent to under 40% shooting from the field. The Raptors are also  0-7 UNDER L/7 in the playoffs with less than two days rest off a home tilt that was tied five-plus times. 

Im expecting a fairly low scoring game here, based on the factors I have pointed out above and on my score projection of this tilt. 

Play UNDER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 3-0

In my betting opinion there is only one way that Portland can possibly steal at least one game in this series, and that is going balls to the walls with all out offensive attack. They have shown their ability to run and gun with the Warriors in the first half of the last two games, before looking fatigued late and eventually capitulating . Now down 3-0 in this series and in desperation mode, Im expecting the Blazers to leave everything on the floor, and to squeeze every last bit of energy they have into this game. This projected  scenario Im betting leads to a high scoring game, that eclipses this total.

PORTLAND is 8-0 OVER  off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 seasons with a combined average score of 237.3 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 12-1 OVER  in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored.

Play OVER

Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 3 - MIL Leads 2-0

The Bucks, in game 1 of this series showed their rust after a week off, while the Raps showed their fatigue in a  108-100 final on Wednesday. In Game 2 on Friday, the Bucks reved things up  and took a 125-103 victory to take a 2-0 series lead. Now Im betting on the Raptors and the Bucks coming out here with all guns blazing in a game that Im betting eclipses the total.

 The Bucks are 11-4 OVER L/15 on the road with a combined average of 236.9 ppg scored in those 15 tilts. 

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 41-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

 Eastern Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - MIL Leads 1-0

The Raptors starters logged a lot of minutes last time out, in game 1 of this series vs the Bucks  and were previously off a 7 game series with the Sixers . So fatigue factors come into play for the Dinos as was the case in the fourth quarter of the last game where  the Raptors were rolled over by a team that they had lead by DDs at different junctures of this matchup. Contrary to belief it takes more effort and stamina to play strong physical defence than to run and gun and wide open fashion and tonight Im betting the Raptors are forced to open up in transition because of the inability to  defend vs a fresher side . This is the lowest total the books have offered from the 5 games these teams have played this year, and the one with the most value for an OVER wager to cash.

MILWAUKEE in 49 games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons has seen a combined average of 219.3 ppg scored.  Toronto in their L/11 after failing to cover the spread in 3 game or more have seen a combined average score of 221.1 ppg scored.

Note: The Raptors have gone  6-0 OVER L/6 as a pup with less than two days rest after a loss in which they were ahead by double digits at some point, going over the number by an average of 23.5 ppg. Meanwhile, the Bucks are 7-0 OVER L/7 with less than two days rest off a win as chalk after a victory where they were behind by double digits, going over  the Total by an average of 20 ppg.  

NBA   teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MILWAUKEE) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 40-12 OVER L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 2 - GSW Leads 1-0

Golden State rolled to  a 116-94 win vs Portland in the first game of this series, and Im betting they are just getting ramped up. Portland had issues converting from the field and despite of  being on tired legs did play more efficient conservative ball like they did against Denver, but the Warriors have just to much firepower, so their efforts were muted . With that said, Im expecting this  Portland  Blazers team to man up here and play more aggressive offensive hoops behind their splash brothers Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum  vs the explosive Dubs in a game Im betting will be much higher scoring than the first game. 

Over is 26-8-1 in Trail Blazers last 36 games playing on 1 days rest.Over is 11-4 in Trail Blazers last 15 games following a straight up loss.Over is 19-8 in Trail Blazers last 27 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 11-5 in Trail Blazers last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

  The Warriors are 8-0 OVER L/8  in  playoff games when they are off a home victory where they held their opposition under their season-to-date shooting percentage average by more than ten percentage points,  going over by an average of +21 ppg.   

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 5 straight game are 130-89 OVER L/5 seasons for a 60% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play OVER 
   
   
 
 

Western Conference - Finals - Best of 7 - Game 1

Portland has really piked up its defensive intensity in these play offs. That was evident vs the Denver Nuggets in this last series. Note: Since late December of 2015, the Denver Nuggets were held to under 37.1% shooting from the field at home in only two games - both were in their playoff series vs Portland. Now the Blazers will go against an explosive Golden State team that they know they wont easily compete against in a run and gun affair, and instead Im betting will focus on a more conservative physical approach here that will help keep this combined score on the low side of the total.

GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 UNDER  in home games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 215.6 ppg scored.

Under is 5-0 in Warriors last 5 Conference Finals games
Under is 10-3-1 in Warriors last 14 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

Play UNDER 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

I know that play off series when they go deep have a tendency of going under. However all games must  be treated independently of each other. There is just to much offence on the floor here tonight in a game that I have pegged to be closely contested for this total not to breached .

PHILADELPHIA is 8-0 OVER  after a game outrebounding opponent by 20 or more this season with a combined average of 239.6 ppg scored. PHILADELPHIA in 53 games vs up-tempo games where they attempt 88 or more shots this season have seen a combined average of 232.1 ppg scored.

Play OVER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 7 - Series tied at 3-3

As in all NBA play off games that have gone deep into a series the opposing sides are a bit fatigued and both sides are very accustomed to each others offensive schemes and all the necessary defensive adjustments have been accounted for thus a lower scoring affair is not out of the ordinary. Add that both sides do not want to make mistakes, and conservative hoops is the norm that makes a under wager here a viable investment option. 

The L/14 seasons have seen the under go 97-69 UNDER in game 6 and 7s of play off series.

Under is 5-2 in Trail Blazers last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Under is 14-5 in Nuggets last 19 home games.

Play on the UNDER 

Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - GSW Leads 3-2

These teams have had alot of half court games over the last few seasons, but the two games played in Houston in this series, showed some more wide open hoops. With Houston on the verge of elimination Im betting they unload here in a big way and leave everything on the court in aggressive fashion which will force the Warriors to run and gun with their desperate opponents in a game I have pegged to eclipse the total.

The Rockets  in their L/10 games since Mar 17, 2019 as a home favorite have seen a combined average score of 220.4 ppg scored.

HOUSTON is 15-2 OVER in home games after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 229.5 ppg going on the score board.

GOLDEN STATE is 20-8 OVER  as a # 1 seed in the playoffs with a combined average of 227.1 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (GOLDEN STATE/HOUSTON ) - in the second round of the playoffs are 104-52 OVER L/22 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the OVER 

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 6 - TOR Leads 3-2

With the way the Sixers are shooting, and their flow has been for the last couple of games Im betting they wont just suddenly come out here and light things up. Add to that when the Sixers star Embiid is off the court his team has been a wreck, and with him playing they have really not been been much better, as its obvious to me hes not 100% as  rumors swirl about his fitness and possible ill health at a very inopportune time. Because the Sixers chemistry looks to be a shambles entering this game I fully expect them to have a muted offensive effort in a game that has a high probability of not eclipsing the number.

Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games.Under is 6-0-1 in Raptors last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 6-0 in Raptors last 6 Thursday games.Under is 4-0-1 in Raptors last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Under is 6-1 in Raptors last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.Under is 5-1 in Raptors last 6 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 9-2 in Raptors last 11 overall.Under is 8-2 in Raptors last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Under is 7-2-1 in Raptors last 10 games following a straight up win.Under is 6-2-1 in Raptors last 9 games following a ATS win.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Under is 6-2 in Raptors last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

TORONTO is 24-7 UNDER off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals with a combined average of 190.6 ppg scored. 

 Play UNDER (LATE STEAM)

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 5 - MIL Leads 3-1

The Celtics are now in desperation mode and must get back to what made their opening game in this series a successful one. In game 1 the Celtics held the Bucks to 90 points and got a win, and since than gotten away from the type of defensive ball that has made them successful over the last few seasons. Tonight Im betting they pay very strict attention to D, knowing that they can not out score the Bucks in a fast paced game and are a big time disadvantage. This Im betting leads to a lower scoring tilt than the lines-makers and public might expect. 

BOSTON is 17-6 UNDER  in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.7 ppg scored.

NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MILWAUKEE) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as a road underdog, with a winning record on the season are 31-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play UNDER 

 Western Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - GSW Leads 2-1

In game 3 of this series I expected a fairly high scoring game , and it went into OT, and we cashed on the OVER. I saw a tendency towards a faster paced set in game 2, which led me to my assessment,  but now Im expecting a more conservative approach here from both teams, and a half court game which is the norm when these teams go head to head over the last few seasons. Remember both teams saw key players play an extreme amount of minutes ( Harden) and now a fatigue factor must be considered.    Houston is and 0-6 UNDER by an average of more than 14 points  as a favorite in the playoffs after a game with eight-plus lead changes while the Warriors are 0-8  UNDER L/8 staying below the number by more than an average 13 ppg as a road pup with less than two days rest off a road loss in which there were eight-plus lead changes. 

GOLDEN STATE is 23-8 UNDER  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined 215.3 ppg. 

NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (HOUSTON) - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after a loss by 6 points or less are 77-37 UNDER L5 seasons for 68%conversion rate. 

Play on the UNDER

 .

Eastern Conference - Semifinals - Best of 7 - Game 4 - MIL Leads 2-1

Milwaukee has imposed their offensive will on the Celtics in back to back games in this series, scoring 123 points in both tilts (wins), and  now Im betting nothing changes tonight as they hit or eclipse that number, again with Boston having no choice but to open up with their own capable offence and also have a substantial output performance. 

The Bucks are 6-0 L/6 OVER on the road eclipsing the Total by more than 18 ppg, with the average combined score clicking in at 244.2 ppg.

BOSTON is 8-0 OVER in home games in the second round of the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 227.5 ppg scored.

MILWAUKEE is 13-4 OVER in road games versus top tier offensive teams - scoring 110+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 238.3 ppg. 

Over is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 road games.Over is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 7-1 in Bucks last 8 games following a ATS win.Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 overall. Over is 5-1 in Bucks last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 13-3 in Bucks last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 Conference Semifinals games.Over is 4-1 in Bucks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 17-5 in Bucks last 22 games following a straight up win.Over is 24-8 in Bucks last 32 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 26-9 in Bucks last 35 vs. NBA Atlantic.Over is 11-4 in Bucks last 15 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 games following a straight up loss.Over is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 6-2 in Celtics last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.Over is 11-4-1 in Celtics last 16 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

These teams have gone over in 8 of the L/10 meetings here in Boston. 

Play OVER 

The last time these teams played they went into extended OT, and now, so many in the public are expecting a muted offensive effort here today because of fatigue factor. But now with all the value sucked out of the total in downward fashion, Im now betting the OVER is a value wager and a game that should see both teams eclipse the 105+ plateau based on my own projections. Note:DENVER is 33-9 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 222.8 ppg scored.PORTLAND is 44-10 OVER  where both teams score 105 or more points in a game this season with a combined average of 236.8 ppg scored.

PORTLAND is 10-0 OVER in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average score of 245.3 ppg scored.

The Nuggets are 6-0 OVER (18.83 ppg) since Apr 07, 2019 as a road dog with a combined score of 232.5 ppg scored.

DENVER is 10-1 OVER  in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 234.6 ppg scored. 

NBA Home teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (PORTLAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days are 61-25 OVER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate. 

Play OVER 

These teams have a history of playing alot of half court games that have gone under the total. However, I noticed an interesting trend of faster paced basketball starting unfold in game 2 in Oakland as the combined score clicked in at 224 points. The Rockets for the most part were expected to  wanted these games to be slower paced, while  the Warriors want to run. Now here in Houston Im expecting the Rockets to be more aggressive and to push the action, and for the Warriors to have no problems reciprocating with some offensive fireworks of their own in a game that Im betting eclipses the total. 

Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 4-1 in Rockets last 5 vs. NBA Pacific.

GOLDEN STATE in their L/25 games as a # 1 seed in the playoffs over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 228.6 ppg scored.

Play OVER