1* Free Play on White Sox -122

The Braves nipped the Dodgers, 4-3, Tuesday night. I don't see Atlanta beating LA a second straight time in a pitching matchup of Roki Sasaki vs. AJ Smith-Shawver.

Atlanta's bats have gone cold resulting in a 4-7 record in its last 11 games. The Braves are averaging just 2.4 runs during these past 11 games.

Smith-Shawver is set to make only his third start this season. He has a 6.23 ERA. The Dodgers are first in road scoring. Overall, LA ranks second in batting and OPS.

Sasaki is turning his season around after a bad early start. He has not allowed more than two earned runs during each of his last six starts rendering only two homers during this six-game span.

Jack's Free Pick Wednesday: Kansas City Royals +140

The Kansas City Royals are the exact type of team you can make money on down the stretch of the baseball season.  The Royals are out of contention, yet they show up every day.  They are motivated to keep their winning streak going and continue playing the role of spoiler.

The Royals are 9-0 in their last nine games overall while going through their best offensive stretch of the season.  They are scoring 6.5 runs per game in their last eight games.  The Blue Jays have one of the worst offenses in baseball scoring just 3.9 runs per game this season.

Randy Dobnak is 2-1 with a 1.58 ERA in seven starts and two relief appearances for the Royals this season.  He has allowed just 8 earned runs and 2 homers in 45 2/3 innings.  Amazingly, he is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA on the road while firing 23 1/3 shutout innings away from home.  

Spencer Miles has been solid out of the bullpen for the Blue Jays, but he has not fared well as a starter.  Miles is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.64 WHIP in his four starts while allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings.  Bet the Royals Wednesday.

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1* Free Wiseguy Play on Orioles/Cardinals over 8 -120

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Los Angeles Dodgers -127

Roki Sasaki has allowed 2 earned runs or fewer in six consecutive starts and hasn't suffered a loss since June 26th.  AJ Smith-Shawver makes his 3rd start of the season for the Braves as he works his way back from injury.  He has a 6.23 ERA in his first two starts, and he just allowed 4 earned runs in 4 1/3 innings to the Twins in his last start on August 19th.  With such a big starting pitching advantage, Los Angeles is the play today.  Give me the Dodgers.

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1* Best Bet on White Sox -122

No analysis provided.

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. MLS Soccer Take Houston over San Jose (8:30 p.m. EST, Saturday August 29) We have been doing well with our free soccer picks, so let’s grab another winner this Saturday. San Jose was high in the MLS standings to start the season with nine wins in 10 matches, but they haven’t won since before the World Cup. Since June, they have five losses and a draw, with a goal differential of -14. They hosted another struggling side, Minnesota, on Saturday, and this was the worst loss yet, a 5-1 home loss. They gave up during that match, and that seemed like a spot where they might circle the wagons and give an inspired performance. But instead, it seems like they didn’t care. They have been plummeting in the standings, and we just don’t see them raising their level of play here on the road against Houston, the No. 2 side in the Western Conference. Houston has collected 22 points at home in 10 matches, with seven outright wins and a +6 goal differential. They have won 11 of 15 home meetings against San Jose. The Earthquakes have conceded at least a goal now in 17 straight matches, and the defense and goalkeeping has been dreadful and seems to be getting worse by the match. We think this number will rise as the match gets closer, so jump on this one early!

Wednesday's Free MLB Pick

PLAY ON: White Sox -122 

Looking at the Week 0 board this year, one number keeps staring me right in the face. TCU laying a touchdown against North Carolina over in Dublin feels like the cleanest play on the early slate.

I have been on this one for a while now. TCU has the more settled roster, especially in the trenches, and that continuity matters more than most people want to admit in Week 0. North Carolina is still sorting through a heavy overhaul in Belichick’s second season, with a new offensive coordinator trying to install a system on the fly and a pile of new bodies who have not taken meaningful snaps together yet. In college football, that gap tends to show up early, especially when both teams have to fly across the ocean for a noon kick.

Neutral-site openers have always been kind to the more physical, more experienced side. Over the last fifteen years, favorites laying between six and eight points in true neutral-site season openers have covered right around 58 percent of the time. At standard juice you only need to hit 52.4 percent to break even, so that edge is real. When you tighten the filter to games that involved long-haul or overseas travel, the favorite’s cover rate climbs closer to 61 percent and the under hits nearly 60 percent of the time. The average total in those spots has finished almost four points under the number. Jet lag is no joke, and neither is limited practice time before a transatlantic flight.

TCU has been the more consistent outfit under Sonny Dykes. His teams usually play with a clear physical identity and they do not mind grinding it out early in the season. North Carolina, meanwhile, has spent the last couple of years looking like a roster still trying to figure out who belongs where. Historical trends for ACC teams opening against Big 12 competition on neutral fields lean toward the side with better line continuity, and TCU checks that box. Favorites in this exact range that also held a clear edge up front have covered better than 60 percent since the mid-2010s. That is the kind of number that keeps the lights on if you stay disciplined.

I will take the under as a secondary piece if the total sits near 48. Early-season scoring is often suppressed when teams are still installing, traveling, and playing a little tight. Both sides prefer a physical brand of football, and that style rarely produces fireworks in the first half of a Week 0 game on foreign soil.

Hawai’i getting points at Stanford and Memphis as a small dog against UNLV are fine secondary looks if you like chasing value on the dog side. I generally leave the massive numbers alone unless the total is screaming. This TCU spot is different. It is the kind of early-season situation where the sharper side of the board usually cashes, and the travel factor only adds another layer of protection.

I have been wrong before and I will be wrong again, but this one sits right with me. Continuity, trenches, travel, and the historical numbers all point the same direction. If the line drifts a half-point either way I am still on it. Good luck if you decide to ride along.

Note: I bet this selection while was able to get -7. But it s still good at this number.

Please unless your a weekend warrior do not buy off the hook.

BUYING OFF THE HOOK 

Buying off the hook is one of those moves that feels smart in the moment and slowly bleeds you over time. I have watched plenty of sharp money and square money both fall into the same trap, and the long-term numbers do not lie. You are paying extra juice to move the line half a point or a full point so a common final margin turns into a push or a win instead of a loss. Classic example is laying the three and a half instead of the three, or taking the plus three and a half instead of the plus three. The hook disappears, your ticket looks safer, and the price quietly climbs from minus one-ten to minus one-twenty or worse.

That extra juice is the real problem. Standard minus one-ten needs you to cash about fifty-two point four percent just to break even. Jump to minus one-twenty and you need roughly fifty-four and a half percent. At minus one-thirty you are staring at fifty-six and a half percent. Those two to four extra points of required win rate add up fast across a season. The probability of a game landing exactly on the number you bought off is almost never high enough to cover the cost over hundreds of plays.

Football is where the conversation gets loudest because the key numbers actually matter. Three and seven have historically been the biggest hooks in both the NFL and college game. League-wide data over the last decade shows finals of three happening in the high teens percentage range and sevens in the low double digits. Buying off those numbers is the only spot where the math gets closer to break-even. Even then you are usually still overpaying. Outside of those true keys the half-points become pure juice leaks. Teams that routinely buy from three and a half to three or from seven and a half to seven have shown thin or negative edges once you factor in the price.

Basketball is a different animal. NBA and college totals and spreads move around half-points constantly, but the distribution of final margins is flatter. Landing exactly on a three or a four happens less often than football’s big keys, so the value of buying the half-point is even thinner. Same story in baseball with the run line. Buying from one and a half to one or two and a half to two costs you juice that the frequency of those exact margins rarely repays. Soccer worldwide, whether Premier League, La Liga, Serie A or the big South American leagues, runs mostly on Asian handicaps where the half-goal and quarter-goal moves are already priced aggressively. Buying further off the number there is usually just giving the book more of your money for protection you do not need.

I have seen the same pattern in hockey, tennis, and the rest of the major venues. The public loves the feeling of being off the hook. The long-term winners almost never make it a habit. They would rather shop for the best available number, take the standard juice, and live with the occasional hook loss. The ones who grind out profits treat buying points like a last resort, not a regular tool. Only when the price is unusually soft on a true key number does the play even enter the conversation, and those spots are rare.

The bottom line is simple. Occasional, selective buys off a real key number at a fair price can be tolerable. Making it standard operating procedure is a slow leak that compounds against you. The juice almost always costs more than the protection is worth. Stay patient, shop the numbers, and let the hooks fall where they fall. That approach has kept more bankrolls healthy than any amount of buying ever will.

Alex Smart

Our selection is on the Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays game to finish OVER the total on Wednesday at 7:07pm ET for a number of reasons. Here are some of the more important ones:

Kansas City will start Randy Dobnak -- His statistics are really strong. But, he has trouble with walks at times and Toronto will be able to take advantage.

The Royals have won nine straight games and have scored 55 runs over those games (6.1 runs a game average).

Toronto will start Spencer Miles -- He's a relief pitcher. Don't expect him to go too far into this start.

The Blue Jays have seen the total go OVER in 56.1% of their games this season after losing the game prior.

We're on the OVER.

AAA Sports

1* on Twins -127

FREE PLAY on Royals +140