Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-19 | Indians v. Astros -148 | 2-1 | Loss | -148 | 8 h 23 m | Show | |
912 Cleveland at Houston Bauer & Cole Not only have these two teams been playoff rivals as of late, but there is bad blood because of Trevor Bauer. He has been very vocal about how he thinks the Astros pitchers are cheating. Using a foreign substance to get more spin on the ball. The Astros players, especially Bergman have called him out in the press. This has gone on for some time now, so I’m sure this game will have a playoff feel. From a handicapping perspective the big advantage for the host is offensively, with a 21% edge. Cleveland has the much better defense, while the combination of Cole and the Astros bullpen gives them a 25% pitching advantage. While we love Trevor Bauer and his intensity, the Astros are at a very cheap price. We made this line -178. Plenty of value on the host. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-24-19 | Mariners v. Padres -164 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 10 m | Show | |
978 Seattle at San Diego Hernandez & Paddack Here we have a young starter we want to back, against an old starter who is still trying to hold on. Our numbers give the San Diego pitching a whopping 40% advantage in this contest. And Seattle hasn’t hit nearly as well on the road as they have at home. The Padres own all the edges here and this line should be closer to a 2 to 1 favorite. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-24-19 | Marlins v. Indians -151 | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 1 h 40 m | Show | |
976 Miami at Cleveland Alcantara & Rodriguez The Tribe owns every key statistic In this Interleague contest. It’s a rare occasion that Cleveland has a double digit offensive advantage. The Tribe also has a 26% pitching edge. We talked earlier in the season on backing the Marlins as a home dog, but fading them on the road. We made this line much higher, so plenty of value to do so here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-23-19 | Dodgers +100 v. Cubs | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show | |
909 Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago Cubs Maeda & Quintana The Dodgers are the most talented team in the National League, and have the deepest starting pitching staff in baseball. The Cubs are quite the opposite as the starting rotation is getting old, with no Major League ready prospects in the high minors. The Dodgers own every key stat in this contest, from offense, defense and overall pitching. The opening line last night was a complete mistake and was bet into very quickly. It’s still not where it should be as we have the Dodgers as clear favorites in this one. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-23-19 | White Sox -133 v. Orioles | 1-9 | Loss | -133 | 6 h 53 m | Show | |
959 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Nova & Cashner As with yesterday the Sox own advantages across the board in this one. Pitching along gives Chicago at combined 33% advantage. We spoke yesterday about the Orioles success on the road but complete failure at home. It’s hard to think of any team right now that has a worse home field advantage. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-22-19 | Phillies v. Mets -110 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
954 Philadelphia at NY Mets Arrieta & Matz Cheap line on the host here as we grade Matz 10% higher than Jake Arrieta. Philadelphia only hits lefties 2% better than league average. A major drawback for the Phillies here is coming off a series in Colorado. Coors Field is so different than other parks in the league, it does take some time to adjust to when leaving. We take advantage of that tonight. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-22-19 | White Sox -121 v. Orioles | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
959 Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Banuelos & Hess Manny Banuelos was once one of the highest rated prospects in the Yankees minor leagues. He was originally a starter but has worked out of the bullpen for the past few seasons. We rate him 15% higher than David Hess of the Orioles. In fact, our numbers have the Sox with every key advantage in this contest. Baltimore has been a big money maker on the road this year, but burn the cash at home. We look for more of the same here. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-21-19 | Sharks v. Golden Knights -170 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -170 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
084 San Jose at Las Vegas As a season ticket holder for the Vegas Golden Knights, we know this team better than any other in the NHL. We’ve either attended or watched the first five games of this series. After taking a commanding 3-1 lead in the series, the Knights simply went through the motions back in San Jose. Once they fell behind early the team simply bided its time waiting to return to the comforts of home today. Vegas has dominated in this building in the playoffs the last two years, and have simply owned the Sharks here regardless of what time of season these two meet. San Jose can easily get blown out here if it doesn’t score the first goal. That’s the key. If the Sharks get on the board first it can be somewhat competitive. If Vegas scores first we expect a blowout victory. Either way we want to back the host here who will give full effort in front of the home crowd. This would be the very first series clinching home win in franchise history. The players want this badly for the home crowd. PLAY LAS VEGAS |
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04-21-19 | Reds v. Padres -142 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 6 m | Show | |
914 Cincinnati at San Diego Mahle & Lucchesi Big starter mismatch for the Padres here with a 31% advantage for the host. The bullpen is also huge for the Padres. The negative for San Diego is getting off to slow starts. This is a team that continues to struggle through the first five, and finds a way to take the lead behind this excellent bullpen. While we like the Padres in the game, if San Diego starts slowly we can get a great number in live wagering. Keep an eye out for that as we may get the opportunity to hit these Padres twice on Sunday. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-21-19 | Mets -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -125 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
907 New York Mets at St Louis Syndergaard & Hudson We went against young Cards starter Dakota Hudson last time out, and we find another favorable matchup to oppose him here. Syndergaard rates 47% better by our starter numbers, and the bullpen for the Mets grades out much stronger. The line has moved towards the Mets overnight, but not nearly enough. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-20-19 | Mariners v. Angels -128 | 6-5 | Loss | -128 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
978 Seattle at Los Angeles Angels Kikuchi & Cahill There isn’t a lot of data points on the Mariners lefty as of late, but most experts feel Yusei can be a top of the rotation starter. That said, we are not sure he’s at that area right now. But yet he’s being priced that way in the marketplace. We have the Angels being better in every major category in this one, yet the line is very favorable. We will take advantage. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-20-19 | Dodgers -125 v. Brewers | 0-5 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
959 Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Ryu & Anderson Major pitching mismatch here as we rate Ryu 32% better than Chase Anderson. Along with the better bullpen and overall offense, this is a cheap price for Los Angeles. The Brewers biggest edge in any game is when Josh Hader takes the mound. But he threw 34 pitches yesterday and will not be available today. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-19-19 | Blue Jays +118 v. A's | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
927 Toronto at Oakland Stroman & Brooks Is it possible that Marcus Stroman is back? He’s looked much better this season and his advanced numbers back up his results on the mound. Aaron Brooks is a fringe starter and rates 24% below league average. The Oakland bats were on fire earlier, but we rate these two offenses equal at this point of the season. This contest should be a coin flip based on our numbers with the host having a slight advantage playing in this building. PLAY TORONTO |
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04-19-19 | Royals +158 v. Yankees | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 34 m | Show | |
917 Kansas City at NY Yankees Junis & Sabathia CC sure is getting a great deal of respect in his second game coming off the DL. There may have been value on him then, but certainly not now in this price range. The Royals won yesterday so everyone thinks there is no way the Yanks lose two in a row at home against the lowly Royals. But we obviously disagree. We rate Junis 15% better than Sabathia, and the depleted Yankees bats are only 11& better than those of the Royals. This line should be much lower based on players stats, as opposed to names on the jerseys. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-18-19 | White Sox v. Tigers -101 | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 2 h 42 m | Show | |
961 Chicago at Detroit Nova & Ross Slight movement overnight towards the visitor, but not enough in our opinion. We rate Nova 18% better than Tyson Ross. Detroit has slight edges in fielding an offense, but not nearly enough to make up the starting pitcher advantage for the Sox. The bullpens are rated as equal, so no advantage either way. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-17-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -133 | 6-3 | Loss | -133 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
904 St Louis at Milwaukee Wacha & Burnes Decent sized pitching edge for the Brewers here as we rate Milwaukee with a 24% advantage with the starters and the bullpen. With Josh Hader taking yesterday off, he’s available for multiple innings if called on today. Wacha still working his way back from injury, which means this struggling Cardinal bullpen will likely be called on early. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-16-19 | Indians -114 v. Mariners | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show | |
977 Cleveland at Seattle Bieber & Leake You are looking at the current ace of the Indians. The Tribe is having major starting pitching problems as Clevenger is injured, and both Kluber and Carrasco are dealing with low velocity issues. While Seattle owns a sizable 17% offensive edge, the pitching advantage for the Indians overwhelms it. Seattle was very fortunate early on with an amazing average with runners in scoring position. That regressed against the pitching of the Astros, and we see it continuing to regress against Bieber. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-16-19 | Astros -156 v. A's | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
975 Houston at Oakland McHugh & Estrada The A’s are the better fielding team here, but all other advanced stats point towards the Astros. A 16% offensive advantage, a 14% bullpen edge, and a whopping 38% starting pitcher advantage for the visitor. We previously pointed out the Estrada signing being a good one for this division, but he is simply outclassed here against these Houston bats. PLAY HOUSTON |
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04-16-19 | Orioles +220 v. Rays | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 43 m | Show | |
967 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Bundy & Glasnow Probably our most contrarian play of the season. Right now Tampa looks like a major playoff contender, while the Orioles look to be one of the worst teams in the league. But the money line is the big equalizer, and the Rays are simply overpriced here. We are seeing lines in the 240-250 range and we only make this line 208. Unlike sports like the NFL & NBA, baseball teams typically win between 60 and 100 games each season. This line is basically saying the Rays have a 70% or better chance to win this contest. That’s roughly a 115 win team. While we like the Rays on the season, this number is worth a wager on the Orioles. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-15-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -131 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show | |
906 St Louis at Milwaukee Hudson & Peralta Cheap line in our opinion as we rate Freddy 26% better than the young Dakota Hudson. While we like the future of the Cardinals lefty, he’s not yet where this game has him lined. Other than a 3% offensive advantage for St Louis, the Brewers own every other key category we value. We grade the Cardinals bullpen 7% worse than league average, so that could be a big factor in this contest. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-15-19 | Cubs v. Marlins +126 | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
904 Chicago at Miami Darvish & Richards Nice opportunity to go against the struggling Yu Darvish at a plus money price. When the Rangers traded Yu to the Cubs it was clear at the time he was injured, yet Chicago continued to send him to the mound. In turn, he missed a great deal of time after surgery. The team expected him to be his old self this season but he’s still struggling badly, with control being the major problem. Trevor Richards is one of the starters we are looking to back this year. His advanced stats are on the incline, and yet he’s never talked about in baseball circles. Nice chance to back him here at a plus price against the overrated Cubs. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-14-19 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show |
960 San Diego at Arizona Lauer & Greinke At the beginning of every season the fans go crazy about the demise of Zack Greinke. Complaints about his lack of velocity and slow starts are common. But he always looks bad in Spring Training and as the season goes on he becomes the solid starter we expected. This line is based on those same old stories. We have Greinke rated 35% better than Lauer, which is not what this line is saying. It’s rare we get such a starting pitcher mismatch in this price range. We’ll jump on the home team before the expensive Zack numbers show in future starts. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-14-19 | Brewers v. Dodgers -139 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
962 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers Chacin & Stripling We are taking a long range look at the Dodgers here who have lost six straight games. The truth is that this is likely the most talented and deep team in Major League baseball. Playing at home with a starting pitcher advantage of 37%. Los Angeles owns a 13% offensive edge, and the bullpen is currently much deeper than the Brewers. The line is low because the public doesn’t want to lay a price with a team on a losing streak. We scream SMALL SAMPLE SIZE and take the value on the host. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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04-14-19 | Phillies v. Marlins +153 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 39 m | Show | |
952 Philadelphia at Miami Velasquez & Urena Value on the home dog Marlins here who play much better at home than on the road. The Fish pounded the Phillies last night and we like their chances again on Sunday. While the best edge for the host is defensively, this line is simply too high on the visitor. Baseball betting is all about the numbers, and while Philadelphia should be favored, this number is way too high. Value play on the dog. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-13-19 | Pirates v. Nationals -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 42 m | Show | |
902 Pittsburgh at Washington Archer & Sanchez Intense battle yesterday as both teams used key bullpen pieces in the Pirates road victory. We do have Archer rated a full 9% better than Sanchez, but we still like Anibal as we have him graded 9% better than league average. Other than the starter edge for Pittsburgh, Washington owns all other key numbers in this matchup. We look for the host to even the series this afternoon. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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04-12-19 | Brewers +135 v. Dodgers | 8-5 | Win | 135 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
959 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Dodgers Burnes & Urias Plenty of underdog value here on the Brewers, as the Dodgers return home after struggling in St Louis. Milwaukee had yesterday off after playing cross town against the Angels. While LA has a 13% offensive edge here, the Brewers own a slight advantage in all the other key categories. We rate this game much closer than the current price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-12-19 | Indians -149 v. Royals | 1-8 | Loss | -149 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
973 Cleveland at Kansas City Carrasco & Keller Bargain price for the Tribe who has advantages across the board. Cleveland dominated divisional rivals last year and have owned the Royals for the past few seasons. Cleveland has a huge 64% pitching edge in this contest including the starter and bullpen. Neither team has hit well thus far, and it’s very doubtful the Royals can break out against this Cleveland pitching staff. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-12-19 | Mets +100 v. Braves | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show | |
955 NY Mets at Atlanta Wheeler & Wright Zach Wheeler had a breakout season a year ago and he’s even better thus far this season. We rate him a full 22% better than his young counterpart on the mound tonight. New York also has a clear bullpen advantage, which hasn’t been said very often the past few years in New York. With the offenses rating evenly the Mets should clearly be favored here by much more than the current number. PLAY NEW YORK METS |
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04-10-19 | Penguins -103 v. Islanders | 3-4 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
003 Pittsburgh at NY Islanders Along with Carolina, the Islanders are a sentimental team to advance in the playoffs. But the difference is that we believe the Carolina hype to an extent, but not the Islanders, especially against the playoff veteran Penguins team. New York just doesn’t have the offensive depth to threaten this high scoring Penguins squad. Pittsburgh is the much deeper scoring team. The Islanders have the better goaltending, but it’s untested at this level. We expect the first game to be a feeling out period for the host, while the Penguins are well versed in playoff hockey. PLAY PITTSBURGH NHL Series Bets Pittsburgh -155 Dallas +155 St Louis -125 |
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04-10-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -153 | Top | 15-1 | Loss | -153 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
958 Washington at Philadelphia Hellickson & Pivetta The Nationals have the better fielding team, as the Phillies are 4% worse than league average. But that’s the only edge for the visitor in this matchup. We especially show a huge margin on the mound as Pivetta rates a huge 30% better than Hellickson. With Doolittle not available after throwing 22 pitches last night in the Nationals 10-6 comeback win, we like the cheap number on the host. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-10-19 | Marlins +133 v. Reds | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show | |
955 Miami at Cincinnati Richards & Mahle The Reds bats finally broke out yesterday in a 14-0 pasting of the Marlins. So now all is right in Cincinnati. Not so fast as one game does not correct this season long problem. Sure the Reds do own a 16% offensive edge in this game, but the Marlins didn’t use any of its key relievers in that blood bath. While Cincinnati has that offensive advantage, all other numbers point to the underdog Marlins. Especially with a 10% starting pitcher edge as we rate Tyler Mahle 14% below league average. Plenty of value on Miami to bounce back from the embarrassing loss. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-09-19 | Mariners v. Royals +101 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
922 Seattle at Kansas City Gonzales & Junis Don’t look now but the Seattle Mariners have the best record in the Major Leagues. Actually, maybe you should look now because this team is about to take a major fall in the standings. Despite the hot start we aren’t buying the Mariners. Along with the New York Mets, they have yet to play a team with a winning record. Our numbers which do take in the small sample size of this season, show the only Seattle advantage in this contest being offense. The Royals are the much better defensive team, and we give Jake Junis a 6% advantage in starters. Before the season Kansas City would have likely been a -125 favorite here. You just can’t adjust your line over 30 cents based on an 8% of the season sample size. PLAY KANSAS CITY |
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04-09-19 | Rays -157 v. White Sox | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show | |
915 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox Morton & Santana First game off the DL for veteran Ervin Santana. He’s had a long and sometimes stellar career, but not much is expected out of him at this point. In fact, we rate the veteran righty 20% below league average. In this contest the red hot Rays own advantages across the board, and our number has them graded closer to a 2 to 1 favorite to win this game. Nice value on the much better team with a major starting pitcher edge. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-08-19 | Brewers v. Angels -103 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
970 Milwaukee at LA Angels Chacin & Cahill Getting this one up early as we expect the Angels to be a solid favorite by game time. Josh Hader has to throw 36 pitches yesterday to close out the Cubs, so the outstanding closer will not be available for the Brewers here. Milwaukee also has a long travel day while the Angels have been home. Los Angeles finally broke out offensively the last couple games and our numbers have LA 10% better offensively. We also rate Cahill 12% better than Chacin, who continues to have success via smoke and mirrors. PLAY LOS ANGELES ANGELS |
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04-08-19 | Rays -153 v. White Sox | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 58 m | Show | |
961 Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox Snell & Rodon Nice value on the red hot Rays who send the Cy Young winner to the mound on Monday. Tampa has a huge 33% starting pitcher edge in this one. In fact, Tampa owns advantages across the board. While this line has been bet up slightly overnight, it’s still showing 17 cents of value on the visitor. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-07-19 | Red Sox v. Diamondbacks +103 | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
930 Boston at Arizona Velazquez & Kelly When looking at runs scored and runs against, the Red Sox are by far the worst team in the league. And it’s not like they have been playing elite teams to start the season. Oakland was expected to be a playoff contender, but Seattle and Arizona were teams that were bet against in season wins circles. Sure the Red Sox have played every game on the road so far, but this is the defending World Series Champions. The wrong team is favored in this one as we much prefer the Diamondbacks on the mound. Velazquez is 20% worse than an average major league pitcher. Which tells you all you need to know about what the Red Sox have in the high minor leagues. The bullpen edge is all Arizona in this one, despite the Diamondbacks using key relievers yesterday. The Sox terrible start continues on Sunday. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-07-19 | Padres +115 v. Cardinals | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
909 San Diego at St Louis Strahm & Wainwright Wrong team favored here by our numbers, as the only advantage the Cards have in this game is a 13% offensive edge. Wainwright was a dominant pitcher in his prime but after multiple injuries and procedures we rate him below league average. Matt Strahm on the other hand is a player we have really liked for a long time. And now he’s finally being recognized in the baseball community. With Andrew Miller blowing up badly last night, this Cardinal bullpen cannot be trusted. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-06-19 | Cubs v. Brewers -125 | Top | 14-8 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
958 Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee We couldn’t understand the move on the Cubs yesterday, which scared us off another winner as we had the Brewers showing value. The same thing happened on the overnights as Chicago took money again. But now the Brewers money has shown which backs up our projected line of -150 here. That leaves us with plenty of value on what is clearly the better team at this stage of the season. And best of all Milwaukee rested its dominating bullpen piece in Josh Hader. Chicago on the other hand blew out Brach, Edwards, Cishek and Kintzler yesterday. All throwing 16 pitches or more. Our numbers show the host having edges across the board and we are a big fan of Corbin Burnes, who could turn into the ace of this staff. Lay the cheap number on the Brewers. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-06-19 | Royals v. Tigers -125 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
964 Kansas City at Detroit Lopez & Moore The Royals struggle against lefty starters hitting 6% worse than league average. While Kansas City is the better defensive squad by 3%, all the other numbers point towards the home team. While we aren’t fond of either starter, we do rate Moore 12% better than Lopez. In fact, Lopez is rated 24% worse than league average. The number has been bet up a bit, but not nearly high enough. We like this spot for the Tigers on Saturday. PLAY DETROIT |
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04-05-19 | Twins v. Phillies -147 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
918 Minnesota at Philadelphia Odorizzi & Pivetta Our numbers have the Phillies dominating this contest with the only Minnesota edge coming via an 8% defensive edge. Will there be a letdown for the Phillies after facing the Nationals in the last series? Possibly, but unlike the physical play of basketball and football, baseball doesn’t seem to have that same letdown capacity. Philadelphia hits righties at home 20% better than the Twins hit right-handed pitching on the road. And Jake Odorizzi rates 15% worse than league average, while we really like Nick Pivetta. Out rating have him 17% better than league average, and most sharp baseball minds have him exploding this season. Cheap number here with the better team, better starter, and better offense playing at home. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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04-05-19 | Mariners v. White Sox +112 | 8-10 | Win | 112 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
922 Seattle at Chicago White Sox Kikuchi & Lopez If this game was being played a week ago the White Sox would be clear home favorites. But the Mariners have gotten off to a much better start than expected, and now we can take advantage of that small sample size. Seattle took 3 of 4 from the Red Sox and won two straight against the Angels, both series being played at home. When those two opponents played teams other than the Mariners, the Red Sox went 1-3 and the Angels 1-4. So don’t read too much into the Mariners success, it just so happened it played teams struggling to open the season. While Seattle owns slight edges in offense and starting pitching, the White Sox have equal advantages in defense and the bullpen. We rate this game dead even and have Chicago a slight favorite with home field advantage. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-03-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -132 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
906 Arizona at San Diego Ray & Lucchesi The more we look into this contest the more we like a bounce back for the Padres. Arizona hits lefties 6% lower than league average and we rate Lucchesi a solid 5% better than the more publicized Ray. San Diego has a slight defense edge and a 7% bullpen advantage. In reality though that bullpen edge is magnified this afternoon. The Diamondbacks had to use the back end of its bullpen last night as Bradley and Holland combined for 27 pitches. The Padres rested the back end of its bullpen and only Robert Stock has pitched in the last two nights, throwing just 12 pitches in striking out the Diamondbacks side on Monday. Nice price for the Padres to get some revenge. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-02-19 | Twins -134 v. Royals | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
967 Minnesota at Kansas City Berrios & Keller Really impressed with Jose Berrios and what we expect from the Twins ace this year. He dominated the Tribe in his first outing and we rate this Royals offense 10% below league average. In fact, the Twins own advantages in every key category in this one. Including a solid 21% edge in starting pitching. We made this line much higher than what has come out as the opener, and the early money is moving our way. Still plenty of value left in this one. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-01-19 | Astros -157 v. Rangers | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
919 Houston at Texas Peacock & Smyly Drew Smyly returns to action for the first time in a very long time, as his injury past has been extensive. While our numbers rate him 6% better than league average, he will surely by rusty and his pitch count will be monitored. That’s very important as the Texas bullpen will be gassed after using eight pitchers the last two nights against the Cubs. The only edge the Rangers have in this game is a 7% advantage defensively. Brad Peacock would be a number two or three starter on most teams, but he has been blocked in Houston. Our numbers have him at 23% better than league average, and because he hasn’t been a starter much in the past his name recognition helps with the number here. We believe the Astros should have been a -198 favorite here, which gives us plenty of value on the road team. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-31-19 | Braves v. Phillies -137 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
964 Atlanta at Philadelphia While we are not one to release many favorites of this size, this number is very cheap based on our ratings. While we like Kyle Wright for his future success, pitching on national tv in his debut here is a very tough situation. He’s currently rated 14% below league average and the Braves bullpen is in shambles. Jake Arrieta isn’t the same pitcher he was just a few short years ago, but he’s still rated league average by our numbers. We expected this line to be much higher than it is, so we will jump at a rare chance to bet the Phillies at home at a decent number. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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03-31-19 | Cubs v. Rangers +120 | 10-11 | Win | 120 | 5 h 8 m | Show | |
980 Chicago at Texas The early money here has come in on the dog and we fully support it. In fact, we have the Rangers graded out to be the slight favorite here as the opening number was way off. Cole Hamels returning to Texas will be the main story here, but the disparity in defense and the bullpens are where the true value is in this contest. All Joe Public looks for is hitting and starting pitching, which will point them slightly to the Cubs here. But when everything is considered the Rangers hold all the betting value. PLAY TEXAS |
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03-30-19 | Golden Knights v. Sharks -135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
018 Vegas at San Jose These two will be meeting in the first round of the playoffs, and this game means much more to the host. Vegas has dominated San Jose as of late and the host comes into this game losing seven straight games overall. The Knights are playing in the second game of a back to back, after losing at home yesterday as a -200 favorite over Minnesota. With Vegas locked into this spot in the playoffs the urgency is with the Sharks. We expect Max Legace to get the start here and when it’s announced we expect this line to rise. Regardless if it’s Subban on a back to back or Legase, we feel the host has extreme value here. Subban is just 2-9 on the road with a poor save percentage of .890. Either way the Sharks are the play. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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03-30-19 | Rockies v. Marlins +123 | 3-7 | Win | 123 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
908 Colorado at Miami Plenty of value of the host here as we are a big fan of today’s starter Pablo Lopez. We already rate this youngster as 2% better than a league average starter, which is really saying something for a player no one knows outside of the state of Florida. The Rockies are expected to challenge the Dodgers this season, but we just don’t buy it. This offense rates out at league average on the road, and we bet Colorado under in season wins. With Colorado taking the first two games of the series, the public is buying into this short term sample. We like the Marlins to get into the win column here with a very generous price. PLAY MIAMI |
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03-30-19 | Indians -110 v. Twins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
917 Cleveland at Minnesota Loving me some Indians here on Saturday. We have the Tribe with every edge except hitting in this matchup. And we feel Trevor Bauer is in for a Cy Young type of season. We rate him 34% better than journeyman Jake Odorizzi. The Cleveland bullpen and defense add up to another 12% advantage for the visitor. Cleveland has taken money overnight, and we fully agree. But there is still plenty of value in this cheap number. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-29-19 | Cardinals +106 v. Brewers | 9-5 | Win | 106 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
953 St Louis at Milwaukee Opening day game comes down to the wire and the Brewers hold on for the victory. But in doing so Josh Hader had to throw 21 high pressure pitches in two innings of work. As opposed to the best arms in the Cardinals bullpen who had the day off. Our numbers show the Cards to have a 4% hitting edge, and a 5% bullpen advantage if Hader is available. The starter ratings show Flaherty to be 16% better than Peralta, and that number is very generous to the Brewers righty. Let’s grab this underdog price on the Cardinals as we expect St Louis to go off as a slight favorite. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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03-28-19 | Tigers +130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-0 | Win | 130 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
921 Detroit at Toronto Zimmerman & Stroman We are looking to fade the Blue Jays here in the favorite role. This team should be in for a very long season, especially as it keeps the expected rookie of the year down in the minors. Jordan Zimmermann rates exactly even with Marcus Stroman, as both pitchers are 4% below league average. That really tells you all you need to know about these two pitching staffs, as these two mediocre pitchers get opening day starts. The Tigers have a 1% edge in the bullpen, while Toronto has the same 1% advantage in defense. The Jays own a small 3% edge offensively, which doesn’t equate to this betting line. Plenty of value on the Tigers here. PLAY DETROIT |
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03-26-19 | Sabres v. Senators +108 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 108 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
034 Buffalo at Ottawa Wrong team favored here by our numbers. Hutton is 5-14-3 on the road with a save percentage of .899. Anderson is 11-10-2 at home with a save percentage of .917. Overall the Sabers are 11-22-5 on the road and playing in a back to back situation. In fact, Buffalo is playing its third game in four days. The Sabers are on an 0-10-2 run on the road, yet this team is a slight favorite here. Ottawa isn’t very good but this line is crazy. PLAY OTTAWA |
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03-25-19 | Longwood +14.5 v. DePaul | Top | 89-97 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
609 Longwood at DePauk The Lancers are trying to even up its season record tonight at 17-17 with an upset of DePaul. Longwood lives and dies by the 3 pointer, allowing opponents to take 50.3% of its shots from long range. The Lancers themselves take 50.4% of its shots from beyond the arc. But DePaul isn’t a team that takes a lot of 3 pointers with only 33% of its attempts coming from that area. What we like about the visitor is that it only attempts 16.5% of its shots from midrange. Anytime you have a team that puts up 50% of its shots from deep, you have a team that can pull off a upset. This club is 6-1 ATS catching double digits and 3-4 straight up. We like the Lancers chances here. PLAY LONGWOOD |
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03-24-19 | Buffalo v. Texas Tech -4 | Top | 58-78 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
870 Buffalo & Texas Tech Playing in the MAC the Bulls don’t get to see this type of defense very often. The Red Raiders only permit 30% of opponent shots at the rim, while forcing the opposition to attempt 30.5% from mid range. This is also a squad that is excellent against the 3 as it holds the opposition to just 29.5% accuracy from downtown. Buffalo allows opponents to take 39.2% of shots at the rim where Texas Tech shoots 67.4%. This matchup favors the Red Raiders and we expected this line to take that in to account, which is hasn’t. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-21-19 | Northeastern +7.5 v. Kansas | 53-87 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 12 m | Show | |
783 Northeastern & Kansas Kansas is only 8-9 when not playing at home this season. Although this is the top team in the country in SOS. Kansas is getting out rebounded by 2.4 per game. The Campus is 1073 miles from this location, so the committee didn’t do the Jayhawks any favors for a change. Northeastern is 5th in the country in effective field goal percentage. But 328th in the country in offensive rebounds. So neither team has an advantage on the glass. We haven’t liked this Kansas team all season, and with the injuries to key players this club is just a shell of its preseason hype. There is a reason why the Jayhawks are seeded this way, and the location doesn’t help the situation. This one will go down to the wire. PLAY NORTHEASTERN |
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03-21-19 | New Mexico State +6.5 v. Auburn | Top | 77-78 | Win | 100 | 2 h 22 m | Show |
781 New Mexico State & Auburn The Aggies are ranked #2 in the country in shooting inside the arc, and are on a 19 game winning streak. This team loves to shoot the 3 and Auburn struggles against outside shooting teams. NM State is 5th in the country in rebounding margin. Very deep team who can afford to get into foul trouble. Auburn is 2-5 against Top 25 teams and only 10-7 away from home. This club is 8th in the country in offensive efficiency, but has a 220th in effective field goal defense. Campus is a whopping 1876 miles from this location. With two teams playing similar styles we much prefer the underdog here in a game that has a decent shot of an outright victory. PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE |
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03-21-19 | Minnesota v. Louisville -5 | 86-76 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 16 m | Show | |
774 Minnesota & Louisville Rick Pitino Jr taking on Louisville where his dad coached is a major story here. The Golden Gophers are a poor shooting team. This club is only 2-9 in true road games. Louisville is just 3-8 against Top 25 opposition, but Minnesota is far from that type of quality team. While the Cards are just 3-7 its last 10 games, this is a club that is 4th ranked in SOS. The coaching edge should be huge here as we favor the Cardinals. PLAY LOUISVILLE |
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03-19-19 | Loyola-Chicago v. Creighton OVER 136 | 61-70 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
689 Loyola Chicago at Creighton The Blue Jays were disappointed in not making the big dance, so the team won’t likely play much defense here. We expect an up and down game from two teams who can get the shots they want from these defenses. Creighton takes 46.9% of its shots from 3, making a solid 38.5% of those attempts. Loyola allows a long distance shooting percentage of 36.6%. Loyola prefers to shoot inside the arc with 41% success from midrange and 63.6% at the rim. Creighton allows 41.2% from midrange and 63.2% at the rim. It doesn’t hurt that this will be the last game of the season for one of these teams, so late game fouling to extend the season in probable. PLAY OVER |
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03-18-19 | Pistons v. Cavs +7 | 119-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show | |
534 Detroit at Cleveland Cavaliers return home off a winless three game road trip. The last time the Cavs faced the Pistons, Detroit crushed them 129-93. But after a long season of injuries to its key players, the Cavaliers are starting to define their roles. Detroit is playing in the second game of a back to back. Winning an impressive game hosting Toronto yesterday. With the next two days being off days, and looking for a 4-0 season sweep of the Cavaliers. We can’t see Detroit being fully invested here. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-17-19 | Blues -139 v. Sabres | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -139 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
059 St Louis at Buffalo Both teams should be a bit tired here playing its fourth game in six days. The Blues have been excellent on the road with a 20-12-5 record and Jake Allen has produced a road save percentage of .925. We’ve been looking for a reasonable number to go against these Sabres. This is a team that was a major surprise early in the season. But over the later part of the schedule Buffalo has looked like the bad team it was a year ago. PLAY ST LOUIS BLUES |
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03-15-19 | Iowa v. Michigan -8 | Top | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
814 Iowa & Michigan Not only are the Wolverines off a loss to instate rival Michigan State, the team is in revenge for a 74-59 loss at Iowa. Michigan permits only 29% of opponents attempts to be from beyond the three point line. In addition, Michigan only allows 29.4% accuracy from that range. That’s a big part of this Iowa offense as the Hawkeyes attempt 39.5% shots from that area and connect on 36.3% of long range shots. Michigan forces opponents to shoot midrange on 35.9% of its shots, while Iowa only forces opponents to attempt 20% from that low efficiency area. Iowa permits 39% of opponents shots at the rim, while Michigan shoots a solid 66.1% in that area. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-14-19 | Canadiens +120 v. Islanders | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
005 Montreal at NY Islanders The Canadiens come into this game in great shape injury wise, and we much prefer Carey Price in goal. He has an outstanding .918 save percentage playing on the road. While the Islanders are 21-11-4 at home this year, the short number tells you all you need to know about who the wise guys like. We agree with the move and love the Canadiens chances at plus money. PLAY MONTREAL |
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03-13-19 | Pistons +2 v. Heat | 74-108 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
547 Detroit at Miami Both teams are fighting for playoff spots and are playing very well at the moment. But we prefer the Pistons getting the points. Detroit has played slightly better on the road this season, while Miami has really struggled at home this year. The Heat are just 4-7 straight up at home as of late. Detroit on the other hand is 6-4 straight up on the road, including a 119-96 win here in Miami just three weeks ago. PLAY DETROIT |
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03-12-19 | Binghamton +16.5 v. Vermont | Top | 51-84 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
603 Binghamton at Vermont The Bearcats have played much better on the road this season than at home. With a 10-22 record this team will be playing very loose in this one as the season likely ends tonight. The Bearcats are weak against the 3 pointer, allowing 37.7% success this season. But when it comes down to closer shots this team can compete against Vermont enough to make a game of this. The Catamounts are 25-6 and already beat the Bearcats twice this season. In a one bid league all Vermont has to do is win and advance. That gives the underdog a great chance to stay under this number. Playing at home where Vermont has lost only twice all season, we can see the host just going through the motions here and using the bench players extended minutes. Keep in mind Vermont uses an 11 man rotation, so the starters get extended minutes of rest. PLAY BINGHAMTON |
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03-11-19 | San Diego v. St. Mary's -4.5 | Top | 62-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
888 San Diego & St Mary’s Fourth game in five days for a Toreros team who has a very short bench. Four players average at least 71% of the team minutes, with three going for 82.1% or higher. There is only eight players in this rotation, so foul trouble is always a concern. San Diego takes far too many shots from midrange at 33.2% of attempts, and far too little around the rim at 26.8% of attempts. This team has already lost to St Mary’s by 17 and 20 points this year. That increases the Gaels win streak in this series to 11 straight victories. This line is too short in our regard as the Gaels need to bounce back strongly here after losing its last regular season game to arch rival Gonzaga. Fresher team gets it done in a big way today. PLAY ST MARY’S |
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03-10-19 | Pelicans +2 v. Hawks | 116-128 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
507 New Orleans at Atlanta Pelicans have dropped two straight games to Utah and Toronto, and have Milwaukee and Portland on deck. This is the game New Orleans needs to avoid an extended losing streak. Atlanta has lost three straight to Miami, San Antonio and Brooklyn. The Nets loss was a 114-112 defeat last night at home. The Hawks are on a 3-10 SU run at home with the only victories coming against The Timberwolves, Suns and Lakers. Can’t trust this team in a win and cover situation. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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03-09-19 | Celtics v. Lakers +6 | Top | 120-107 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Fresh off our NHL Game of the Week as the underdog Winnipeg Jets won 8-1 yesterday. Now on a 10-3 NBA run and tonight we are STEPPING OUT WITH A BEST BET on the hardwood. Join us as we continue to provide profit for our clients. |
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03-08-19 | Jets +149 v. Hurricanes | Top | 8-1 | Win | 149 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
075 Winnipeg at Carolina Too much value not to jump on the underdog here. Starting goalie Hellebuyck is out tonight and the line has jumped. But we like Laurent Brossoit in goal as his overall save percentage is actually better than the starter. The 30 cent jump is way more than what we would expect, so we now have solid value on the Jets. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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03-07-19 | Valparaiso v. Indiana State UNDER 126.5 | 77-55 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 53 m | Show | |
632 Valparaiso & Indiana State Tournament game in St Louis Valpo does a good job of limiting opponent threes by allowing just 35% opponent shots from the perimeter. Neither team takes many long distance shots at percentages of 28.1% for Indiana State and 33.9% for Valparaiso. Indiana State takes way to many midrange shots at 34.9%, while Valpo forces opponents to take 28.8% of attempts from that range. PLAY UNDER |
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03-06-19 | Cavs +9.5 v. Nets | Top | 107-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
535 Cleveland at Brooklyn The Cavaliers are a whole different team with Kevin Love healthy and in the lineup. With plenty of rest heading into this game and no contest tomorrow, the Cavs Love affair should provide us with a solid play tonight. Brooklyn leads the season series 2-1 but the last game was a triple overtime thriller. Cleveland is 5-3 straight up as of late with Love sitting the bench in the majority of those losses. Brooklyn is fighting for the playoffs which is one reason why this line is so high. But keep in mind the Nets have dropped 9 of its last 14 games. And the team has been slightly better on the road than at home this year. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-05-19 | Mississippi State v. Tennessee UNDER 146.5 | 54-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
642 Mississippi State at Tennessee Bulldogs looking to bounce back from a loss at Auburn last time out. After holding the previous five opponents to 67 points or less, Auburn put up 80. Very much like Tennessee the Bulldogs love shooting from midrange. Putting up 30.4% of its shots from that area, while the Volunteers attempt 36.5% of its shots from that distance. Neither team shoots a lot at the rim with both teams in the 31-32% range, which is below average. Tennessee coming off the revenge win over Kentucky. Both teams match up pretty well here which points us towards a low scoring game. PLAY UNDER |
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03-04-19 | Hawks +9 v. Heat | Top | 113-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
503 Atlanta at Miami Third game in four days for the Hawks who beat the Bulls 123-118 yesterday. But keep in mind none of the Hawks players played more than 28 minutes including Trey Young who was kicked out of the contest after only 18 minutes of play. Miami is the team trying to make the playoffs and will be a popular play with the public today. But keep in mind the Heat have lost outright to the Hawks in all three meetings this season. Can’t trust the Heat here who have lost 6 of 8 outright as of late in this building. PLAY ATLANTA |
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03-03-19 | Magic v. Cavs +6.5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
582 Orlando at Cleveland Terrible spot here for the red hot Magic, off wins over Golden State and Indiana, with Philadelphia on deck. Orlando is very young and hasn’t been able to give the same effort on a night to night basis. Just in the last two weeks this team has lost to Chicago and New York. Cleveland on the other hand rested Kevin Love last night and were embarrassed by the Pistons. Love is back on Sunday and the team has played very well since his return to health. Great situational spot for the Cavaliers to take advantage of all the Orlando hype the last three weeks. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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03-02-19 | Rutgers +9 v. Iowa | 86-72 | Win | 100 | 2 h 25 m | Show | |
697 Rutgers at Iowa Revenge game for the Scarlet Knights who lost at home to Iowa in a game the team really thought it deserved. The strength of the Iowa defense is only allowing 31.8% shooting from downtown. Yet Rutgers rarely shoots from behind the 3 point line. Rutgers is very good defensively around the rim allowing just 55.5% of opponent shots to be successful. With both teams going in opposite directions and the Iowa coach being suspended, we will gladly take the points with the Scarlet Knights. PLAY RUTGERS |
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03-02-19 | South Carolina v. Missouri UNDER 136.5 | Top | 63-78 | Loss | -110 | 1 h 25 m | Show |
660 South Carolina at Missouri The first meeting had 160 points which gives us an advantageous line here for the rematch. Neither team is prolific from deep and South Carolina only attempts 34.5% of its shots from that range. Both teams defend the mid-range shot well, and the Gamecocks attempt 36.6% of its shots from that low efficiency area. Both teams rarely shoot at the rim, yet they are very good at stopping opponents from doing so. Therefore without easy baskets we can see this contest being very low scoring. PLAY UNDER |
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03-01-19 | Bucks -4 v. Lakers | Top | 131-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
553 Milwaukee at Los Angeles Lakers Bucks are in the middle of playing three games in four days on this five game road trip. That said, the Lakers and LeBron James bring out the best in good teams. And this Milwaukee team is playing better than anyone in the league. This contest should also bring special meaning for the Greek Freak as his team lost to LeBron and his squad in the All-Star game. The Bucks have played slightly better on the road this year, while the Lakers have been very poor at home. The Lakers are 18-12 straight up at home on the season, but just 6-8 since mid-December. Simply cannot trust the host to play enough defense to keep this one close. With a winnable game at Phoenix on deck, followed by city rival Clippers, it wouldn’t be surprising if the Lakers go deep in the rotation tonight. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-28-19 | William & Mary -2.5 v. Towson | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
611 William & Mary at Towson The Tribe is looking to sweep its season series with Towson after winning 71-61 at home at the end of December. Riding a three game winning streak the visitor has played better on the road than at home this season. Towson has done the same as its home court value is one of the lowest in college basketball. The Tigers are just 5-5 straight up in this building. It’s tough to back the Tigers considering this team takes only 29.5% of its shots from long range, while permitting opponents to attempt a whopping 45.9% of shots from beyond the arc. When looking at midrange jumpers Towson takes 38.2% from this poor efficiency area, while the Tribe defense allows 28.9% of shots to be taken from that area. William & Mary prefers to attack the basket with 41.3% of shots to be taken at the rim. With Towson not attacking the basket, and not shooting from the 3 point line, this offense cannot be counted on. PLAY WILLIAM & MARY |
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02-27-19 | Georgia Tech +18.5 v. Virginia | Top | 51-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
787 Georgia Tech at Virginia Yellow Jackets have dropped 8 of 9 recently but this team actually matches up decently well with the Cavaliers. Georgia Tech has played much better on the road this season, as have these Cavaliers. The defensive key for Virginia is to force the opposition to shoot from distance, where the Cavs only allow 26.5% success from 3 point range. But Georgia Tech doesn’t attempt a lot of shots from downtown. Tech would rather compete around the rim with 37.7% of its shots coming from close range. With just four games left in the regular season Virginia just wants to win and advance at this point of the year. The last seven games for this club have been decided by 12 points or less. The Wahoos have bigger fish to fry, while Georgia Tech will be looking to pull off a shocker. We feel the visitor will keep this close throughout. PLAY GEORGIA TECH |
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02-26-19 | Akron v. Buffalo -14 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
604 Akron at Buffalo The Zips played a competitive game against the Bulls just two weeks ago at home, losing 76-70. But this Zips team has really struggled on the road with a 1-8 straight up mark on the season. The Bulls on the other hand are undefeated at home this year. In breaking down this contest we see than Akron takes 47.7% of its shots from deep, while making only 31.1%. Buffalo defends the three well permitting just 30.6% from long range. Buffalo has a big advantage at the rim taking 43.7% of its shots from that high efficiency area, while Akron permits 41.9% of opponents shots to be taken at close range. With Buffalo going inside and poor shooting Akron heaving threes, this game turns into a blowout rather quickly. PLAY BUFFALO |
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02-25-19 | Blazers v. Cavs +9.5 | Top | 123-110 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
562 Portland at Cleveland Blazers have won three in a row all by 14 points or more. It is in the midst of a seven game season high road trip. Coming off back to back double digit road wins over Philadelphia and Brooklyn, this team is riding high with Boston and Toronto on deck. If you were looking for a flat spot for the Blazers, this would be it. Don’t look now but the Cavaliers are playing its best ball of the season. Winning three of its last four with the lone loss coming in double overtime. Cleveland has the next two days off before traveling to New York to face the Knicks. This is also the fifth straight game at home for the Cavs who are the far more rested team from a travel aspect. Can’t see the Blazers getting up to play Cleveland here and the return of Love has energized the host. Look for this game to be tightly contested. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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02-24-19 | Stars +100 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
57 Dallas at Chicago Nice price on the visitor who has a new lease on life after bringing in Zuccarello and Lovejoy via trades. Both players are expected to take the ice today which will be a nice jolt for the Stars. Dallas is playing its fourth game in six days, but the team is a respectable 4-4-1 in that situation. Cam Ward is in goal for the Blackhawks and his home save percentage of .899 is worse than either Dallas goalie on the road. PLAY DALLAS |
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02-23-19 | Northern Illinois v. Toledo -9 | 54-57 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 25 m | Show | |
602 Northern Illinois at Toledo 20-6 Rockets are off back to back losses with road games at Ball State and Central Michigan on deck. Huskies have had a full week off, so it may come out a bit rusty to start this game. Northern Illinois allows 48.2% of opponents shots to come from behind the arc. That’s not a good thing when we see the Rockers making 37.1% from long range on the season. Great spot for the Rockets and the matchup favors Toledo to dominate from distance on its own home court. PLAY TOLEDO |
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02-23-19 | Indiana State v. Missouri State -6.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
632 Indiana State at Missouri State The Bears are off an embarrassing loss, being held to just 43 points against Northern Iowa, a team they lost twice to this season. That offensive output was 12 points worse than in any other game this season. Missouri State matches up well in this contest, as the Bears weakness is allowing 40.6% success from 3 point range, but Indiana State only attempts 28.3% of its shots from long range. The Sycamores attempt way to many midrange shots, and Missouri State funnels its defense to force the opposition to take 38% of its shots from that low percentage area. Missouri State is also excellent defensively at the rim allowing only 23% of opponents shots to be taken in that high success area. PLAY MISSOURI STATE |
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02-23-19 | Virginia -5 v. Louisville | 64-52 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
607 Virginia at Louisville The Cavaliers haven’t lost to a team other than Duke all season. This team is even better on the road than at home, a clear sign of a team that can go deep in the big dance. This is a terrible matchup for the Cardinals who take 43.4% of its shots from long range. Virginia allows only 25.8% success defensively from beyond the arc. We saw how bad Louisville struggled last time out against a defense that made them one dimensional, as Syracuse held them to 49 points in a 20 point loss. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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02-22-19 | Davidson v. Rhode Island | 75-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
863 Davidson at Rhode Island This is just a very good matchup for the visitor, who has performed better on the road than the host has at home. When it comes down to Davidson it’s all about the three point shot. This team attempts a whopping 47.8% of its shots from beyond the arc. The weakness of this Wildcats defense is allowing the opposition to attempt 45.5% from that same distance. But Rhode Island only attempts 32.5% from long range and makes a lowly 25.2% from behind the arc. Therefore Davidson doesn’t have to worry about getting beat from deep. The Rams attempt 41.1% of its shots at the rim, but Davidson holds the opposition to just 30.3% of its shots in that area. So Davidson can get the shots it wants, while the Rams will struggle to get off the shots it wants. PLAY DAVIDSON |
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02-21-19 | Pepperdine v. Gonzaga UNDER 156 | 64-92 | Push | 0 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
628 Pepperdine at Gonzaga Last road game of the season for the Waves who have been terrible away from home this year. Pepperdine is 2-10 SU on the season, and a huge underdog in this contest. With back to back winnable games at home to finish the season, we can’t see the Waves running with Gonzaga here. This team has gone under the total in 14 of its last 20 games. Gonzaga on the other hand has an improving BYU on deck in two days. The Zags have gone under the total in 14 of 19 games as of late. Only one conference game has finished with more than 156 points. Pepperdine takes 41.8% of its shots from beyond the arc, but Gonzaga only permits 34.9% of opponents shots from there, along with an excellent 29.6% success rate. Gonzaga can name the score here, but what is the incentive against a foe who just wants to get out of here without embarrassment. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-19 | Bruins +116 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 116 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
73 Boston at Las Vegas We are well aware on the Bruins fourth game in six days, but there is no way we want any part of this fading Knights team as a favorite. Halak has been a hot goaltender as of late stopping .938% of shots the past five games. Cehlarik missed the last game but we expect him back tonight. While Halak has been hot the same cannot be said of Fleury who has only stopped .886% of shots the past five games. In fact, things have been so bad that the team started Subban in net each of the last two games. The Knights defense has continued to turn the ball over deep in its zone, which is a major reason why the goaltending hasn’t been as good this year. The Knights had a ton of breakaway chances last season, and that has dried up this year. As a season ticket holder for the host I’m very worried about this team going forward. PLAY BOSTON |
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02-20-19 | North Carolina v. Duke UNDER 165.5 | 88-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show | |
820 North Carolina at Duke While the general public will look for this to be a high scoring contest. When you break these teams down we find plenty of value on the under. The Tar Heels are an excellent 3 point shooting team, cashing in on 38.6% of attempts from long range. But that’s the strength of this Duke defense as the Blue Devils hold the opposition to just 29.7% from deep. North Carolina in our opinion takes way too many midrange shots, and Duke permits 28.2% of shots to be taken from that range. Duke only allows 29.2% shooting from that area of the court. On the other hand Duke takes 43.7% of its shots at the rim, while North Carolina only allows 30.4% of shots to be taken from close range. So the preferred shooting areas of both teams should be defended well in this matchup. PLAY UNDER |
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02-20-19 | Louisville v. Syracuse -2 | 49-69 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
796 Louisville at Syracuse Tough spot here for the Cardinals who are off three tight games before hosting Virginia. Louisville had to go to overtime against Florida State, lost by two against Duke and followed that up with a one point win hosting Clemson. We all know it’s easier to shoot well from behind the arc at home, but on the road could be a different story here. Louisville attempts 43% of its shots from long range, and Syracuse allows opponents to take 48.1% of its shots from distance. So the Cardinals should get plenty of three point attempts, but the Orange are very good inside defensively. On the season Syracuse has held the opposition to just 30.1% shooting behind the arc at home. PLAY SYRACUSE |
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02-19-19 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 148 | Top | 66-65 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
626 Maryland at Iowa Having a hard time seeing these two getting to the posted total in this one. Terps have reached this number just once on the conference road all season. Maryland ranks 277th in the country in pace, and 19th in effective field goal defense. This team is outstanding defensively at the rim, allowing just 57% field goals. As well as behind the arc forcing opponents to shoot 31.6%. Iowa is also very good defensively from distance permitting just 31.4% shooting from behind the arc. While the Hawkeyes are 70th in pace, the team is 216th in field goal attempts per 100 trips up court. We look for this game to total 143 points or less. PLAY UNDER |
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02-16-19 | Pacific v. Santa Clara | 59-64 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show | |
743 Pacific at Santa Clara Home loss revenge for the Tigers who dropped a double digit decision earlier. This should be a nice matchup for the visitor as Santa Clara permits 44.4% of shots attempted at the rim. The Pacific weakness is allowing 43.6% of opponents shots from beyond the arc, but this team doesn’t attempt a great deal of threes. The Broncos have had a very poor home court advantage all season, and have dropped 3 of 4 outright here lately. PLAY PACIFIC |
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02-16-19 | Ohio +6 v. Central Michigan | 80-87 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 0 m | Show | |
681 Ohio at Central Michigan Simply can’t trust the Chippewas here to lay this type of number. Central has dropped 5 of 7 with one of the victories being by just four points. Host has also lost 2 of 4 SU lately at home. Ohio has lost four in a row themselves, but the talent level is much closer than the betting number represents. PLAY OHIO |
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02-15-19 | South Alabama +8.5 v. Georgia State | 81-90 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
859 South Alabama at Georgia State Home loss revenge for the Jaguars who dropped the earlier meeting 69-66 in mid-January. After losing five straight South Alabama has now won 3 of 5. The Panthers of Georgia State started conference action hot but have cooled off as of late. Dropping 4 of the last 7 games. Georgia State permits 45.2% of opponents shots to be taken from distance, which keeps the visitor in the game throughout. PLAY SOUTH ALABAMA |
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02-14-19 | Southern Utah +3.5 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 73-84 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
687 Southern Utah at Sacramento State Nice matchup for the Thunderbirds who are riding a three game winning streak and already beat Sacramento State earlier at home. Southern Utah can be beat from long range allowing 36.6% shooting, but the host only takes 27% of its shots from beyond the arc. The Thunderbirds only take 20.6% of its shots from midrange, while tonights opponent takes a whopping 30.9% from that low efficiency area. To make matters worse the Hornets only make 30.6% of the shots from that area. Sac State does take 42.2% of attempts at the rim, but the visitor only permits 55.8% shooting from that range. PLAY SOUTHERN UTAH |
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02-13-19 | USC v. Stanford -1 | 76-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
848 USC at Stanford Trojans knocked off Stanford at home 77-66 where USC has played much better ball. But on the road this team is just 1-5 straight up on the season with the lone win coming at Washington State. A concern for USC here is mid-range shooting. The Trojans take 31.9% of its shots from that area, while Stanford forces opponents to take 30.7% of its shots from the least efficient area of the court. Stanford on the other hand attacks the rim with 44.9% of its shots close to the hoop, as opposed to the Trojans who only take 34.2% of its attempts from close range.Revenge for the Cardinal tonight. PLAY STANFORD |
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02-13-19 | Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 106-97 | Win | 102 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
503 Milwaukee at Indiana In-season revenge game for the Bucks who lost to the Pacers by 16 in mid-December. Milwaukee has been golden this year after losing in the previous meeting, as well as coming off a loss in its last game. This is a club that takes losses badly and can’t wait to right the wrong. In its final game before the break we look for the Bucks to end the Pacers six game winning streak. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-12-19 | Duke -8 v. Louisville | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
637 Duke at Louisville With the Blue Devils off the big win at Virginia many will feel that this will be a letdown spot for Coach K’s squad. But the matchup clearly favors the road team. Louisville lives and dies by the three point shot, attempting 43.3% of its shots from long distance. But that plays directly into the Duke defense which only permits 33.8% of attempts from that area and just a 29.5% success rate. Duke takes 43.4% of its shots at the rim, which is much more predictable for success. PLAY DUKE |
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02-11-19 | Bucks -11.5 v. Bulls | Top | 112-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
563 Milwaukee at Chicago Not only have the Bucks been a great team in revenge, this club has bounced back strong off a loss. How bout 13-0 straight up on the season, covering the number by over 14 points per game. Since the start of the season Milwaukee has won those games by margins of 35, 23, 7, 19, 6, 3, 23, 5, 12, 14, 12, 19 and 10 points. This team lost against Orlando Saturday in the second game of a back to back situation. With Indiana and Boston on deck this is a chance for the Bucks to take out some frustrations. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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02-10-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston -3.5 | 58-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
830 Cincinnati at Houston Huge matchup in the American Conference on Sunday. 20-3 Cincinnati, the first place team, heads to Texas to take on the Houston Cougars. Interesting matchup as the Bearcats are more than willing to let opponents shoot from behind the arc. Cincinnati is allowing opponents to take 44.3% of its shots from long range. Houston on the other hand takes 43.9% of its shots from downtown. That should mean many chances for three pointers from the host. The Bearcats shoot way to many midrange shots, 35.6% from that low percentage area. Houston’s defense forces opponents to take 29.5% from that part of the court, allowing just 30.4% accuracy. In this perimeter game we favor the host who is attempting to break the conference first place tie with the Bearcats. PLAY HOUSTON |
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02-09-19 | Long Beach State v. Cal Poly +3.5 | 76-68 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
758 Long Beach State at Cal Poly A down year for the 49ers is looking worse by the day as Long Beach brings a six game losing streak into this contest. This is a team that is 1-10 straight up on the road this season, and yet is favored here. Cal Poly forces opponents to attempt 29.1% of attempts from midrange, while for some reason Long Beach State takes a whopping 41.1% of its shots from that low efficiency area. That in itself tells us all about the wrong team being favored here. PLAY CAL POLY |