Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-19-18 | Cardinals +110 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
903 St Louis at Philadelphia Weaver & Velasquez Great game last night as we were able to cash with the Phillies in extra innings. But we were impressed the way the Cardinals made a game of it. Luke Weaver has gotten better as the season has worn on, posting a 3.52 ERA in his last seven starts. But the main reason to play the Cards here is we want to go against Vince Velasquez when pitching at home. Last year he was 1-5 with a 6.10 ERA at home. This season he is even worse in Philadelphia with a 6.88 ERA. Most sports bettors want to back power pitchers, and for the most part we agree. Which is why we get a nice price with St Louis here. Let’s take the Cards in a game we expect the offense to explode. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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06-18-18 | Cardinals v. Phillies -102 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
952 St Louis at Philadelphia Mikolas & Pivetta Miles Mikolas has been very good this year but a main portion of his success is because of a home ERA of 1.68 on the season. As good as he has been we’ve been just as impressed with Nick Pivetta. He himself has an ERA of 3.13 at home this season with a 1.11 WHIP in Philadelphia. We rate the Phillies bullpen 18% better than that of the Cards. Philadelphia haas also hit 6% better at home vs righties as the Cards have done on the road vs right-handed starters. The last point of emphasis here in the Cardinals traveling after a Sunday Night Baseball game against the rival Cubs. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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06-16-18 | Angels v. A's -125 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show | |
970 Los Angeles at Oakland Lamb & Manaea Really tough spot for the Angels today after putting four players on the DL yesterday after already having injury problems. John Lamb gets called up for the start today and all you need to know is he is 2-12 with a 6.17 ERA in his career. Seam Manaea has a substantial starting advantage. The Athletics are also 11% stronger offensively in this starting pitcher matchup. Throw in home field advantage and we have solid value on the host. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-15-18 | Rockies v. Rangers -104 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
930 Colorado at Texas Bettis & Mendez While Chad Bettis has been rewarded with a 4-1 record this season, he simply hasn’t earned it. In 75.2 innings he only has 53 strikeouts. In his last seven starts he owns a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP. Yolander Mendez will be making his first major league start for the Rangers after competing in the bullpen at the major league level. While we rate him 5% below league average it’s still higher than we rate Bettis. The bullpens are equal but Texas has a sizable hitting edge here. The Rangers hit right-handed starters 15% better than the Rockies do against lefty starters. He like to ride young lefties making starter debuts, and the betting public frowns on names it doesn’t know. Plenty of value here with the host. PLAY TEXAS |
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06-13-18 | Angels v. Mariners +103 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 103 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
918 Los Angeles at Seattle Richards & Gonzales The young lefty from Seattle rates 6% better than Richards in our power ratings. He’s also on a solid 4-1 run with a 2.18 ERA in his last seven games. The Mariners bullpen also rates 10% better than the Angels. Hitting wise we have the host 7% better. So we get a clean sweep for the host and the payback is quite nice. PLAY SEATTLE |
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06-12-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays -105 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
966 Toronto at Tampa Bay Garcia & Stanek The Rays were good to us yesterday and we see no reason to abandon them here. Tampa will be using Stank to start with Pruitt to follow. We rate that combination 5% better than Jaime Garcia, and that may still be a bit short. Garcia hasn’t won a game in his last seven starts, and in that time he is averaging just over four innings per outing. In that time his ERA is 6.25 with a 1.64 WHIP. The Tampa Bay bullpen rates 11% better than the Jays. The host also hits lefties 5% better than the visitor does against right-handed starters. All in all we are getting the better team laying a very small number. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays +102 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 102 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
912 Toronto at Tampa Bay Gaviglio & Yarbrough Sam Gaviglio is off to a nice start with the Blue Jays, but there is nothing in his history that would flash up a buy sign. He’s not a strikeout pitcher by any means, and he throws below league average velocity. So we feel we are playing against a starter that is already at his peak. Ryan Yarbrough is able to keep the opposition off balance with a very good change up. He’s only allowing a .235 batting average on the season, while averaging about a strikeout per inning. The Rays bullpen is 11% stronger than that of the Jays. The hitting in this contest is a virtual tie. In our opinion the wrong team is favored here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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06-10-18 | Angels v. Twins -111 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 2 h 50 m | Show | |
974 Los Angeles at Minnesota Tropeano & Romero Big starting pitcher edge for the Twins here as we rate Fernando Romero a good 19% better than Nick Tropeano. The Angels starter at this point has been a Quad A player, bouncing back and forth from the minors based on starter injuries. The Minnesota bullpen also rates 11% better, although the Angels look like they’ve finally figured out the closer situation. Off pensively we rate the Twins 8% stronger against right-handed starters. Really surprised the line on this game isn’t higher with the host holding all the advantages. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-09-18 | Indians v. Tigers +165 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 165 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
924 Cleveland at Detroit Clevinger & Fiers Mike Clevinger really was a major surprise for the Tribe a year ago, and a lot was expected out of him in 2018. While he started the year off fine, he has struggled his past three starts. In his last 18 innings he has allowed 10 earned runs. He’s also pitched much worse at night than in the day in his short major league career. So we have these two starters pretty even talent wise. Traditionally the Cleveland bullpen has been much better, but this season has been a dumpster fire anytime the call to the bullpen is made. We actually have Detroit as a slightly better hitting team against right-handed starters. PLAY DETROIT |
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06-08-18 | Angels v. Twins +115 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
976 Los Angeles at Minnesota Richards & Lynn While Lance Lynn has had his struggles this season, he has been much better as of late. In his last three starts he has permitted just 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings of work. In his first six years in the majors he never exceeded a 3.97 ERA in any season. After struggling out of the gate in a new league, he is now starting to pitch like his old self. So while our starter numbers show an edge for the Angels, recency has us looking to back the veteran righty for the Twins. Minnesota has an 11% edge in the bullpen, and a 7% offensive advantage against right-handed starters. Wrong team favored here. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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06-07-18 | Capitals +132 v. Golden Knights | Top | 4-3 | Win | 132 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
009 Washington at Vegas The Caps have won the past three games pretty convincingly. Vegas came out in the first period of the last game throwing everything it had at Washington, and still failed to score. It was by far the best the Knights had played in this series and still they couldn’t penetrate the goal. Once Vegas was called for a penalty the game shifted gears as the Washington power play went to work. That’s been the big difference in this series. The Caps have simply dominated the Knights with a man advantage. The only chance the host has tonight is to play a completely clean game, and that’s just too much to ask. The better team closes it out tonight. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-06-18 | Dodgers -110 v. Pirates | 9-11 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 7 m | Show | |
955 Los Angeles at Pittsburgh Ferguson & Williams Easy winner on the Dodgers last night and no reason to expect anything different here. Caleb Ferguson will be making his MLB debut here and we love playing rookie lefties right out of the minors. The opposition doesn’t face as many left-handed starters, and obviously it hasn’t faced Ferguson, who has a bit of a strange delivery. By the time the team likely figures him out the game will be turned over to the bullpen, which is finally in top form. The same cannot be said of the Pirates pen which has crumbled as of late, and is a major reason why Pittsburgh is in a major fade. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-05-18 | A's -124 v. Rangers | 4-7 | Loss | -124 | 6 h 47 m | Show | |
917 Oakland at Texas Manaea & Moore While Sean Manaea hasn’t been nearly as productive as he was earlier in the year with his no-hitter included, he’s still a good 14% better than Matt Moore. You could have a hefty stack of money going against Moore who is a tough starter to back under any circumstances. Especially here as Oakland hits lefty starters 7% better than league average. Nice spot to pick on Moore here at a reasonable price. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-05-18 | Dodgers -116 v. Pirates | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
901 Los Angeles at Pittsburgh Stripling & Musgrove Ross Stripling has been the best pitcher on the Dodgers staff this year. There I said it. As good as Kershaw has been it’s Stripling that has been the rock of this pitching staff. We rate him 17% better than a league average pitcher, and that includes his prior appearances last year. His strikeout rate has skyrocketed and he has been a much better hurler than his previous career would show. That’s how you make money in sports wagering, getting to the trends before the opposition. Joe Musgrove has been lights out thus far, but the sample size is still to low. We expect good things from him but right now he’s being overvalued. The Dodgers have a clear advantage right now in the bullpen, and own an 8% offensive edge against right-handed starters. PLAY LOS ANGELES DODGERS |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals -115 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
008 Vegas at Washington Very surprised by the low line here considering how difficult it has been for the Knights to get good quality shots. The Caps are playing the type of defense that Vegas played in the first three rounds of the playoffs. Before the series started we talked about the defensive edge the Knights had in this series. So far we have been completely wrong in that regard. Sure Las Vegas is putting shots on goal, but they aren’t quality shots. The only scored the Knights had in the previous game was a major mistake by the Caps goalie. Washington has been the better team thus far and to get them at home laying such a small number is a bargain. PLAY WASHINGTON |
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06-02-18 | Red Sox v. Astros -180 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -180 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
974 Boston at Houston Price & Verlander Let me start this by saying that we very rarely suggest playing big favorites in baseball. In fact, just once all season have we released a favorite of higher than -135. That was a winner on the Cleveland Indians at -180. But this game has the biggest value on the board, and we are here to build our clients bankrolls. Therefore we will be backing the Astros on Saturday. Houston has a huge starting pitching advantage of 33% here as Verlander has been absolutely dominant this year. The Astro bullpen rates 26% better than a Boston bullpen who we like very much. Houston also owns a 20% offensive edge against lefty starters, as opposed to the Red Sox hitting against righties. Yes the line is high but it’s up there for a reason. The betting markets know how good the Sox are so the line can only go so high, just not high enough by our numbers. PLAY HOUSTON |
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06-01-18 | A's -119 v. Royals | 16-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show | |
923 Oakland at Kansas City Montas & Kennedy Khris Davis returned to the Oakland lineup yesterday and all of a sudden the club broke out of its hitting slump. That’s good news today against a very hittable pitcher in Ian Kennedy. We really like highly touted Frankie Montas who has pitched most of his time in Oakland as a reliever. We rate Montas 20% higher than Kennedy, who is 13% worse than an average major league starter. The A’s also have the better relief corps and a huge hitting advantage. The A’s bats rate 15% better than that of the Royals. Throw in that fact that this home field has been very minimal this year, and we get solid advantages with the visitor. PLAY OAKLAND |
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06-01-18 | Blue Jays v. Tigers -104 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show | |
918 Toronto at Detroit Garcia & Hardy Jaime Garcia has been a solid pitcher throughout his career when he has been healthy. He rates league average when he’s on the hill. The problem has been he’s just not on the hill enough to be a productive starter. Blaine Hardy has pitched out of the bullpen for just about his entire career, but is having success in the starters role in Detroit. The Tigers hit left-handed starters just about league average, while the Jays are 7% below league average against starting righties. We like the way this Detroit offense is starting to come around. The young players are getting playing time and are making the best of it. Cheap line with what we grade out as a slightly better pitching combination. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals -105 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
901 St. Louis at Milwaukee Reyes & Guerra Alex Reyes is finally back in the majors after having his 2016 season shortened because of Tommy John surgery. At the time the highly praised youngster was 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA. He was dominant during his minor league rehab games and the Cardinals coaching staff have not put any limitations on him today. Our numbers have him 31% higher than his counterpart Junior Guerra. That’s also 24% stronger than an average major league pitcher. While the Brewers do have an 11% better bullpen, St. Louis owns the offensive edge by 9% when facing right handed starters. The Cards are starting to rest from its slumber as key bats like Carpenter are starting to get hot. PLAY ST. LOUIS |
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05-29-18 | Cubs -117 v. Pirates | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 31 m | Show | |
951 Chicago at Pittsburgh Lester & Kingham You don’t find the Cubs on the road in this price range very often. Especially when a hot John Lester takes the hill. In his last seven starts Lester has posted a 1.69 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP. While his road ERA is at 2.93 on the season as opposed to a 1.84 ERA at home, his opponent battling average and his strikeouts per inning are better away from home. Nick Kingham has gotten off to a nice start with the Pirates, but keep in mind he has been highly touted for years, and yet was passed up by lesser talent to make his MLB debut. The big advantage in this contest is offensively as the Cubs rate 15% higher against righties than the Pirates do against left-handed starters. In fact, Pittsburgh is 8% below league average vs lefties. Nice price as we take advantage of Kingham’s good start with the better hitting club. PLAY CHICAGO |
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05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -138 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
002 Washington at Vegas The last time the Golden Knights entered a series with a major rest advantage it lost to Winnipeg. The Jets scored two goals right off the bat to shock the Knights. After that early explosion the team settled down and played the Jets equal through the remainder of that game. We all know what happened after that as Vegas dominated the rest of the series. Now with that knowledge we really expect the Knights to be fired up here, especially in front of the home crowd. We feel Vegas has a major defensive advantage in this game while all other edges are very slight. Look for the Knights to have a great defensive game and win a low scoring contest. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-27-18 | Orioles v. Rays -105 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 1 h 23 m | Show | |
968 Baltimore at Tampa Bay Gausman & Romo-Pruitt Don’t look now but the Rays may be on to something with these bullpen games. If you follow analytics closely the community has long talked about something like this. So far so good for Tampa Bay, and we like this matchup today. We rate the Rays combo virtually equal to Gausman. The bullpen has a whopping 19% edge. Also the Rays offense grades out slightly better. All this and home field advantage point us to the host today. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-26-18 | Twins v. Mariners -118 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
924 Minnesota at Seattle Odorizzi & LeBlanc We grade the Seattle veteran 12% better than Odorizzi. The Mariners bullpen is also 6% stronger than its Twins counterparts. Seattle also grades out 8% stronger against righties as opposed to Minnesota vs left-handed starters. Overall cheap number on the host. PLAY SEATTLE |
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05-26-18 | Astros -102 v. Indians | 6-8 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
921 Houston at Cleveland McCullers & Carrasco While Carrasco has 15% edge on McCullers, Carlos has pitched much better on the road the past few years. This year his ERA is 5.02 at Progressive Field. The Astros bullpen is head and shoulders better than the Indians relievers, and Miller and Allen had to pitch last night. Offensively Houston grades out 12% better than the Tribe against right handed pitching. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-25-18 | Diamondbacks v. A's -128 | 7-1 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 17 m | Show | |
980 Arizona at Oakland Big fan of Patrick Corbin but his advanced stats are showing regression. We would also rather have him pitching with the humidor in Arizona. It’s also hard to back this Diamondbacks lineup that continues to miss key pieces, and the ones still there are really struggling. Sean Manaea has put everything together this season. He’s pitching more to contact which keeps him in the game longer. While we rate Corbin 18% better, the A’s bats are 24% stronger than those of the D’Backs. Cheap number for Oakland with two excellent starters on the mound. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-24-18 | Warriors +1 v. Rockets | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
507 Golden State at Houston Rare opportunity to get the clearly best team in the league without laying points. The Warriors were a short handed bunch last time out and the physical nature of the game seemed to wear on them down the stretch. Keep in mind the mental focus of this team after blowing away the Rockets in the previous game. Golden State was fat and happy and began to read its press clippings. While the Rockets played all out with its back to the wall. Now that Golden State is focused we see the Warriors coming out of Texas with the series lead. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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05-23-18 | Braves +111 v. Phillies | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 31 m | Show |
955 Atlanta at Philadelphia Gohara & Arrieta We’ve been waiting to get a chance to bet Luiz Gohara in a starting role. This young lefty has electrifying stuff, and yet the public knows little about him. We rate him 16% higher than Jake Arrieta who continues to be on the decline. His strikeout rate is very low which means he’s becoming much more hittable than he was with the Cubs the past few years. The offenses are nearly identical while we will admit we prefer the Phillies bullpen by 14%. That said, we are getting Gohara at a cheap price and feel the wrong team is favored here. PLAY ATLANTA |
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05-22-18 | Orioles -120 v. White Sox | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
919 Baltimore at Chicago You won’t find many bigger starting pitching matchups. Because of James Shields past few starts many think they are going to see Big Game James. But we all know that small sample sizes have no value when compared to long term records. We rate Gausman 32% better than Shields, with Big James coming in at 27% worse than an average MLB starter. The bullpens are virtually equal, but the Orioles have a nice 12% offensive advantage against righties. The public may be fooled by small sample sizes but we take full advantage. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-21-18 | Celtics +7 v. Cavs | Top | 102-111 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
705 Boston at Cleveland So Cleveland is favored by 6 1/2 at home in game three after losing by double digits twice in Boston. Now the line is higher after the Cavs blow out the Celtics by 30 in the previous game? That’s not how sports betting works, especially this far into the playoffs where all four teams are among the leagues elite. Boston has the best coach remaining in the playoffs, which really says something with the Rockets and Warriors included, two elite coaches indeed. The Celtics have been terrific all season off a loss, off a double digit loss and off a blowout loss. History says the same thing when it comes to playoff basketball. Simply, the team that gets embarrassed comes out and covers the spread the next game. It happed last night in Oakland and it will do the same tonight in Cleveland. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-21-18 | Braves v. Phillies -114 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
954 Atlanta at Philadelphia Foltynewicz & Pivetta Big fans of both these pitchers this season as they were highly touted and are now coming into their own. But we prefer the host here as we grade Pivetta 20% better than league average and 15% higher than Mike Foltynewicz. The Phillies bullpen is 14% better and the Phillies grade out 4% better offensively against right handed pitching. The public also likes the underdog here, and we know a public dog is a losing dog. Let’s lay the short number with the Phillies. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
928 Cleveland at Houston Carrasco & McCullers Terrific pitching matchup for Sunday Night Baseball. Carlos Carrasco has pitched in this ballpark twice and he has yet to give up a run in 15.1 combined innings of work. Overall his road ERA in his career is 1.38 runs less than when he pitches at home. McCullers has a career ERA at home of 2.47 runs better than on the road. He rarely gives up the long ball which is a big part of this Cleveland offense. Therefore we look for a major pitchers duel tonight in front of the national television audience. PLAY UNDER |
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05-19-18 | Indians v. Astros -111 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -111 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
968 Cleveland at Houston Kluber & Keuchel It’s very hard for us to go against Corey Kluber in this price range, but we simply cannot back this lifeless Indians offense against a quality starter. We actually have Kluber a big favorite in the starting pitcher battle, but everything else says Astros. Houston has an elite bullpen and the Cleveland relievers have been a complete disaster. The Indians hit 4% lower than league average against lefties, and the coaching staff continues to play the likes of Kipnis past his prime. Houston on the other hand is 16% better than league average against righties, and Kluber has a habit of allowing solo home runs. Which with this weak Cleveland offense simply cannot be allowed. PLAY HOUSTON |
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05-18-18 | Rockies v. Giants -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
914 Colorado at San Francisco Freeland & Holland Not a big fan of either of these starters as we have both graded much lower than league average. But we do get to go against the awful Rockies bats at a very fair price. Colorado rates 13% below league average when facing left-handed starters. In fact, that 13% is the same as the offensive advantage in this game for the Giants. With both teams virtually even in the bullpen we will lay the short number here with the much better hitting team at home. PLAY SAN FRANCISCO |
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05-18-18 | Phillies v. Cardinals -110 | Top | 4-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
912 Philadelphia at St Louis Arrieta & Wacha Jake Arrieta just isn’t the same pitcher he was a few years ago. His advanced numbers continued to go down each and every year, which is why the Cubs let him leave in the offseason. His strikeout numbers continue to decline which means he has to survive off his veteran knowledge. In this starter matchup we like Wacha 10% better than Arrieta, and that number should climb as more recent starts from Jake lower his history numbers. While the Phillie bullpen is better, this team has really struggled in the back of the pen. St Louis hits 7% better against right-handed starters and the Cards are also at home. Cheap number as we take advantage of an overrated Philadelphia starter. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-17-18 | A's +113 v. Blue Jays | Top | 10-5 | Win | 113 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
961 Oakland at Toronto Triggs & Sanchez Major starting pitcher edge in this one for the Athletics. We have Triggs rated 27% better than Sanchez, as Aaron continues to fight back from injuries. The bullpens are both good but Toronto’s has a 4% advantage. Oakland has really been a great offense this year. Grading out as 7% better than league average, and 5% stronger than the Blue Jays against righties. All told we have the wrong team favored here as we agree with the early line movement. PLAY OAKLAND |
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05-16-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Twins | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show |
925 St Louis at Minnesota Mikolas & Lynn The Cardinals had a late lead last night only to have the bullpen blow the game. Today we look for St Louis is get that game back behind the arm of Miles Mikolas. Now back in the big leagues after spending time abroad, Mikolas has become a much better pitcher. We rate him 22% better than Lynn, with the offense rated 3% stronger. While the Twins bullpen rates slightly better we really think this starter matchup can be exploited by the Cards bats. Nice price on this one with the better starter and team. PLAY ST LOUIS |
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05-15-18 | Cubs -118 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
955 Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Darvish & Foltynewicz The Braves have become a betting favorite for the general public, and tonight Atlanta is getting the majority of tickets despite being the underdog. Yu Darvish returns from the DL and we’ve gone over his regression both here and I our weekly videos. That said, this line shows all the value on the listing Cubs. Darvish rates a whopping 26% higher than MF and the Cubs bullpen grades out 14% better. Offensively Chicago hits 10% better than the Braves do against righties. Atlanta has been raking against lefties, but against righties the team is actually 2% worse than league average. Very cheap number here for the Cubs. PLAY CHICAGO CUBS |
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05-14-18 | Rockies v. Padres -105 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
904 Colorado at San Diego Anderson & Lucchesi As we have pointed out previously Tyler Anderson actually pitches better in Coors Field than he does on the road. We rate Lucchesi 18% better in the starting pitcher matchup, with the Padres holding a 5% edge in the bullpen. Both offenses rate 12% below league average, with the Rockies taking advantage of the strongest home field edge in baseball. Joey Lucchesi has been better than advertised and he has been excellent in this ball park. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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05-14-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
902 Milwaukee at Arizona Guerra & Corbin Junior Guerra was excellent after coming off the DL but his work has really regressed as of late. IN fact, we rate Patrick Corbin a whopping 30% better than the Brewers right hander. The Arizona bullpen is very good, a full 11% better than the Brewers. Although Milwaukee from the seventh inning on is lethal. The Brewers do have a 2% offensive edge. But the huge variance at starter here is too much to ignore. The D’Backs were just swept at home by the Nationals, which gives us a cheap number here. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-13-18 | Rays v. Orioles -101 | Top | 1-17 | Win | 100 | 1 h 54 m | Show |
968 Tampa Bay at Baltimore Snell & Bundy Dylan Bunny had been a very good pitcher all season until his dreaded start last time out. His struggles were well publicized as he permitted 7 earned run without getting a single out. He was pulled after the most embarrassing start we can ever remember. Now because of that one start bettors are lining up to bet against him here. Even with that start we still grade Bundy 5% better than Snell, who we also like. Baltimore hits 9% better than the Rays, with the only Tampa Bay edge coming in the bullpen. But with Bundy fully rested the Orioles may not need much from the bullpen today. If this game had been played last week this line would be 20 cents higher. We back Bundy this afternoon to put those bad memories to bed. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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05-12-18 | Golden Knights +140 v. Jets | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
021 Vegas at Winnipeg Can’t wait for this series to start with two cities going bonkers over their professional hockey teams. The Knights have a big edge in the rest department after the Jets had to go seven games to knock off Nashville. That quick turnaround really helps the visitor here. You can expect a bit of a letdown here after Winnipeg knocked off a team that had been to the championship the past two seasons. We rare the Jets as the slightly better team, and with home ice advantage Winnipeg should win this series. But this is a great opportunity for the Knights to get the early upper hand, and the underdog number is very fair. PLAY VEGAS |
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05-11-18 | Braves v. Marlins +130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 130 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
956 Atlanta at Miami McCarthy & Straily The Braves have played great ball as of late as the squad has gotten off to a tremendous start to the season. Miami on the other hand entered the year expected to have the worst record in the league. In this contest 80% of the tickets have been written on the Braves, while 70% of the money has been placed on the Marlins. That tells us the public is backing the hot team while the big bettors are backing the home underdog. In looking at our numbers McCarthy only grades out 3% higher than Straily, while the Marlins bullpen is 10% stronger than that of Atlanta. With the Braves only holding a 6% offensive edge here, there is plenty of value on the home dog. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-10-18 | Jets +140 v. Predators | Top | 5-1 | Win | 140 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
053 Winnipeg at Nashville This has been an extremely close series thus far with expected goal numbers being 15.37 for Winnipeg and 14.28 for Nashville. Since 2005 Game 7 hosts are just 27-25, so home ice hasn’t meant much. In this series the road team has won 4 of 6 games. Nashville has been here before, but that only puts more pressure on the host. We are going to back the Jets in what is a nice underdog price in what we grade as an even matchup. PLAY WINNIPEG |
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05-09-18 | Tigers +161 v. Rangers | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 1 h 3 m | Show |
961 Detroit at Texas Liriano & Colon We are well aware of the offensive lineup the Tigers have put on the field today as its likely three best hitters are sitting out this game. That said this line has moved way too far in our opinion. Liriano is rated 14% better than Colon, and the bullpens are even. While Texas does have a 13% offensive edge this number is ridiculous. This line has moved 40 cents with word that Nick Castelanos will be on the sidelines. That’s crazy! We will take the value with the nine major league hitters the Tigers have on the field for Wednesday. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-08-18 | Red Sox +188 v. Yankees | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 49 m | Show |
911 Boston at NY Yankees Pomeranz & Severino Regardless of the pitching matchups in this series the games seem to come down to the wire, and seem to take forever to complete. Many extra inning games and loads of pitching changes. Our feeling has been when these two titans compete we are looking for reasons to take the underdog. Since 2005 there has been 22 games in which the favorite has been -180 or more. The record for the chalk in those games is 12-10. A big loser when it comes to net units. The last three seasons the Sox have been installed as +150 or higher underdogs, in those games Boston is 16-4. The Red Sox are 15-1 this season against right handed pitching, which is amazing. Too much value not to take an elite team here in this price range. PLAY BOSTON |
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05-07-18 | Raptors v. Cavs -5 | Top | 93-128 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
504 Toronto at Cleveland Give the Raptors all the credit in the world for that comeback last time out. But that last basket by LeBron has to have taken out all the will from this team. Keep in mind LeBron James is on a 27-1 SU run against the Raptors at home. That’s been against some very good Toronto teams the last few years. Now the Raptors need to win four straight including two wins in Cleveland. It’s just not going to happen and the visiting knows it. Cleveland on the other hand wants to finish as soon as possible in order to get a bit of rest before the Eastern Conference Finals. James led the league in minutes this season, so you know the Cavs will do everything in its power to close this one out tonight. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-06-18 | Marlins +110 v. Reds | Top | 8-5 | Win | 110 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
909 Miami at Cincinnati Straily & Finnegan Wrong team favored here by our numbers. We rate Straily 10% better than Finnegan, with the bullpen a whopping 15% stronger. Miami has been better against lefties than the Reds have been against right handed pitching. In a battle of pitchers recently on the DL we will back the veteran of the Marlins. PLAY MIAMI |
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05-05-18 | Tigers +133 v. Royals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 133 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
967 Detroit at Kansas City Zimmermann & Hammel Two of the worst starting pitchers in baseball face two of the worst offenses in the game. What to do, what to do? It’s very simple in our minds, you take the underdog. There is no way the Royals should be this level of favorite over anyone I the league. We all know how bad this team has been at home this year, as we’ve taken advantage of them here pretty often this season. Our numbers have this contest much lower than what we are getting from the current betting marketplace. It’s time to take advantage of the Royals at a ridiculous price. PLAY DETROIT |
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05-04-18 | Sharks +150 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
025 San Jose at Las Vegas In game one the Sharks never looked ready to play as it was the worst effort by any team I have seen all year at T-Mobile Arena. Since that game it’s been clear that the better team in this series has been San Jose. The Sharks have proven themselves to be just as fast as the Knights, and a more physical group. This is a must win game for Vegas but this team has little experience in that realm. San Jose has far more playoff experience obviously and the price is very favorable. PLAY SAN JOSE |
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05-04-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -109 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -109 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
910 Pittsburgh at Milwaukee Kingham & Guerra Nick Kingham looked amazing in his first major league start. But keep in mind he has been one of the Pirates building blocks for years, and yet he never made the majors until last week. He’s always had talent but he had been surpassed by others as his progressed had stalled. Junior Guerra was fantastic two years ago but he suffered through injuries a year ago. Now is healthy again and the results have been awesome. We are getting the better team at home with the better starter, bullpen and offense. All at a very cheap price. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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05-04-18 | Blue Jays v. Rays +146 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 146 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
918 Toronto at Tampa Bay Happ & Kittredge Great spot to go against the road favorite Jays here. Toronto played 20 innings of baseball yesterday allowing 24 runs and using 11 pitchers. All but one of those hurlers threw double digit pitches, so fatigue is a real factor here. Tampa Bay on the other hand had yesterday off so every man is available. While JA Happ is a quality starter we also like Andrew Kittredge. Our numbers say this should be an even encounter, yet we are getting a nice underdog payout. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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05-03-18 | Cavs +6.5 v. Raptors | Top | 128-110 | Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
511 Cleveland at Toronto In game one Toronto was well rested and Cleveland was coming off a grueling seven game series with Indiana. The Raptors were favored by 7 in that contest and Cleveland won it in overtime. Now the line is virtually the same despite both teams having equal rest. Toronto has really struggled against the Cavs in the postseason and we unable to distance themselves in game one. Why would anyone think something different is going to happen here? The Cavs match up well with Toronto and when Thompson is in the game the inside edge the Raptors have is negated. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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05-02-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
914 LA Dodgers at Arizona Ryu & Godley Want nothing to do with the Dodgers here as the team continues to lose key players. Last year LA led baseball in most games lost to the DL. This year it’s getting even worse. Now with its All-Star SS Seager out for the season, this team is really in a bind. Throw in the fact that the Dodgers can’t score enough runs to win with Kershaw shows us a fade is in order. We rate Godley 21% better than Ryu and the price in this contest is very reasonable. PLAY ARIZONA |
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05-02-18 | Brewers v. Reds +100 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
912 Milwaukee at Cincinnati Miley & Castillo The Brewers signed Wade Miley with the stipulation that if he didn’t make it onto the MLB staff by May 1st the team would have to release him. That’s the main reason why this retread is still in the league. Miley has more lives than a cat based on his performance in the big leagues. Tonight we take advantage of that with the far superior pitcher in Luis Castillo. We rate the Cincy righty a whopping 24% higher than Miley. That more than makes up for the Brewers superior bullpen. Nice price on the Reds here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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05-01-18 | Pelicans +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 116-121 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
709 New Orleans at Golden State The rich get richer as Steph Curry returns to the Warriors lineup tonight. But does that make them a better team? Of course it does if he is in prime shape and gets his full allotment of minutes. But keep in mind it has been a long time since he has competed on the highest level, and the Warrior coaching staff will be looking to gradually increase his minutes. If would be devastating to this team to lose him again right before the likely occurrence of a Houston/Golden State showdown. Therefore we expect his minutes to be lessoned and his success being down from what we normally would witness. The line in the previous game was roughly 2 1/2 points lower than we find here. The Warriors pounded the Pelicans rather easily. But we expect a major effort out of the dog tonight, and the Curry return gives us extra points to play with. In successful sports betting you buy low and sell high, that’s exactly the situation we take advantage of tonight. PLAY NEW ORLEANS |
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04-30-18 | Rays -116 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
915 Tampa Bay at Detroit Faria & Zimmermann Rare chance to go against one of the worst starters in baseball at a decent price. We rate Jacob Faria a whopping 20% stronger than Jordan Zimmermann, and the Tampa Bay bullpen is 8% stronger than that of the Tigers. The Rays have been playing well right now, and we expect Detroit to be one of the three worst teams in baseball record wise by the end of the year. Cabrera is also questionable today which could take away one of the two productive Tigers bats. The Rays have the more complete team with the far better pitcher here. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-29-18 | A's +195 v. Astros | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -100 | 2 h 13 m | Show |
973 Oakland at Houston Cahill & Cole We think Trevor Cahill is a perfect fit for these Oakland A’s, especially pitching at home. But even in this ballpark his stuff should work well. Cole has been terrific, but he is pitching over his head when looking at career numbers. Keep in mind Pittsburgh’s PNC Park favors pitching. With the offense these A’s have this club is always a dangerous dog. This line is simply way too high. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-29-18 | Reds +182 v. Twins | Top | 8-2 | Win | 182 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
979 Cincinnati at Minnesota Mahle & Berrios The Reds are finally snapping out of its funk after the change in managers. Both of these young starters are play on in our opinion, but the line is simply too high. Minnesota has really struggled as of late and we simply cannot pass up the opportunity to fade them in this price range. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-29-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -5 | Top | 101-105 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 33 m | Show |
706 Indiana at Cleveland Originally from Cleveland we have watched virtually every Cavaliers game since LeBron was a rookie. We know his tendencies, his body language and when he’s coming to play or likely not to play well. This here is a LeBron game. Elite players off an embarrassing performance rebound well the next game. Teams losing by 30 or more points are 5-0 ATS the following game as a favorite. PLAY CLEVELAND |
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04-28-18 | White Sox +123 v. Royals | Top | 8-0 | Win | 123 | 2 h 51 m | Show |
931 Chicago White Sox at Kansas City Fulmer & Oaks We admit Carson Fulmer has been a major disappointment but he does have a high prospect pedigree. Still, how are the White Sox the underdog here. Chicago is 5-6 on the season away from home and have owned the Royals in the early going. Kansas City is 1-11 at home and 1-14 vs right handed pitchers. The Sox have the pitching edge in our opinion also as Trevor Oaks is making his MLB debut. This line is all based on Fulmer and his horrendous stats. But he’s a much better pitcher than what he has shown. Give us the White Sox in this afternoon affair. PLAY CHICAGO FIRST GAME OF DOUBLEHEADER |
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04-27-18 | Rockies v. Marlins +125 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
960 Colorado at Miami Anderson & Urena We haven’t backed the Marlins yet this season but the team can be bet on in the right circumstances. Tonight we get to go against Anderson who is actually a better pitcher at Door Field than on the road. We won on him as a nice dog against the Cubs last time out, but the value goes against him on Friday. Not only do we play against a pitching favorite in a bad role, we also get to go against a very weak offense when not taking advantage of elevation. We have the Miami offense rated 10% better than Colorado here and the bullpens virtually equal. Wrong team favored here at the Marlins build off its recent success. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-27-18 | Tigers v. Orioles -116 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
966 Detroit at Baltimore Fiers & Tillman In handicapping sports you want to be ahead of the curve when it comes to analyzing teams and players. Chris Tillman has been simply terrible since returning from major surgery and the line shows that as he is a small favorite. Despite the game being played in Baltimore and one of the worst teams in the league being the opposition. But we watched Tillman his last start vs Cleveland, and he looked a lot better than the numbers suggest. Even the Orioles play by play man talked about that outing as being the best he has had coming off injury. He had swing and miss stuff but he left a couple pitches right over the plate and the Indians took advantage. Right now we are getting a pitcher with an excellent history before the injury, who is now starting to play to previous form. We’re not a fan of Mike Fiers and this Baltimore offense rates 16% better than the Tigers. Short number to lay here with a pitcher we can find value on. PLAY BALTIMORE |
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04-26-18 | White Sox +146 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 146 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
917 Chicago WS at Kansas City Giolito & Junis Two bad teams battle Thursday night. Giolito has been considered one of the elite pitchers in the minors for years. But injuries and bad performances at the major league level have reduced that enthusiasm. While we still have concerns about his ability, this line is just way too high not to back this young White Sox team. We’ve said in the past that we like Jake Junis, but there are some major regression numbers we can’t ignore. His ERA is a full two runs lower than his FIP, and his BABIP is just .169. League average is in the .300 range. No way this bad Kansas City team should be in this price range against anyone. PLAY CHICAGO WHITE SOX |
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04-25-18 | Brewers -111 v. Royals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
979 Milwaukee at Kansas City Chacin & Hammel Rare chance to bet against one of the worst teams in baseball in this price range. The Royals are 5-16 on the season and just 1-8 at home. This is a team that is every bit as bad as what it was projected to be. Jason Hammel is 16% worse than an average big league pitcher, and the bullpen is 13% worst than league average. Milwaukee is a division leading 15-9 on the year including 7-3 on the road. Much better team here and the price is exceptionally low. PLAY MILWAUKEE |
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04-24-18 | A's -110 v. Rangers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
921 Oakland at Texas Triggs & Hamels We are looking for a big season out of Andrew Triggs, and we see Cole Hamels continuing his fall from a one time elite pitcher. The A’s offense has been pounding and the Rangers lineup is loaded with Quad A players. Oakland is simply the better team across the board. PLAY OAKLAND |
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04-24-18 | Twins +137 v. Yankees | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 22 m | Show |
915 Minnesota at NY Yankees Berrios & Sabathia We grade Berrios 13% better than CC which gives us a nice underdog value play on a starter looking to go deep into this game. He’s well rested after that big start in Puerto Rico. The Yankees are the better team but this matchup favors the Twins. PLAY MINNESOTA |
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04-24-18 | Cubs +109 v. Indians | Top | 10-3 | Win | 109 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
925 Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Chatwood & Tomlin Not a fan of either of these starters but we trust the Cubs offense more than the Tribe’s in this contest. Chicago’s scoring unit is 11% better than Cleveland’s yet the Indians are made the favorite here. PLAY CHICAGO |
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04-23-18 | Angels +182 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 182 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
965 LA Angels at Houston The Angels have been terrific on the road this season, and Tyler Skaggs has finally shown some upside after a disappointing early career. Houston just had a field day against the worst pitching staff in the American League, as the White Sox are a train wreck right now. So the champs return home fat and happy after beating up a Quad A pitching staff, and now must face a group looking to make the postseason. While we agree the Astros should be favored, this line is simply too high. PLAY LA ANGELS |
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04-22-18 | Warriors -6.5 v. Spurs | Top | 90-103 | Loss | -102 | 4 h 6 m | Show |
503 Golden State at San Antonio What was once a very promising season for the Spurs has really turned into a complete waste of a year. The team and its best player are at a standstill, as Leonard continues to sit when the team needs him most. Now San Antonio sits at 0-3 in this series and has to beat the defending champs four straight in order to advance. Because of the yearly high expectations for the Spurs we can’t see San Antonio getting overly excited to have to travel back to Oakland after a victory here. Fading 0-3 teams has been very profitable, doing so against a veteran team with higher expectations is a given. PLAY GOLDEN STATE |
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04-21-18 | Cubs v. Rockies +126 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 126 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
960 Chicago at Colorado Darvish & Anderson This isn’t the same Yu Darvish that we are accustomed to seeing. Let’s break down his last half a season. Darvish last 7 starts in 2017 regular season 37.2 IP 17 ER. In four postseason games 14.2 IP 10 ER. In 3 2018 starts 15 IP 10 ER. Last 14 starts overall 67.1 IP 37 ER 4.96 ERA. That’s not what the Cubs paid him the big money for. Tyler Anderson since 2016 at home. 3.00 ERA in 2016. 4.14 ERA in 2017. 3.00 ERA in 2018. This is a hurler that knows how to pitch in this ballpark. We can take advantage of the wrong team being favored here. PLAY COLORADO |
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04-20-18 | Twins v. Rays -122 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
922 Minnesota at Tampa Bay Lynn & Archer Possible letdown here for the Twins who return to the states after highly publicized Puerto Rico trip with the Indians. Packed houses and constantly cheering fans one minute, Tampa Bay disinterest the next. Archer has been off his game in the early going but he’s one of the elite pitchers in the Junior Circuit. We rate him 40% higher than Lance Lynn which is about as much of a differential you will ever see in this price range. Schedule favors the Rays and we expect the Twins to be a bit tired from that 16 inning game. PLAY TAMPA BAY |
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04-19-18 | Pirates v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 0-7 | Push | 0 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
951 Pittsburgh at Philadelphia Tailon & Arrieta James Tailon has been very fortunate with runners on base, as well as BABIP this season. He has been good but not nearly as good as his numbers would suggest. Jake Arrieta has been fortunate as well but our main reason to expect regression is in this strikeout rate. His numbers really dropped off last year and his fastball speed isn’t any better this season. This total is priced for two elite pitchers, and while both are above average neither is in that elite category. PLAY OVER |
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04-18-18 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
517 Indiana at Cleveland The Pacers have played the Cavaliers as well as anyone this year, and have a good chance to win this series outright. Being from Cleveland we watch every Cavaliers game and Cleveland has severe problems in this series. There was no doubt Indiana was the better team in the opener, and Cleveland still has a major weakness inside. The Pacers are the quicker team and the Cavs have struggled against youth all season. This line is built on reputation and not on the actual skills of the players. PLAY INDIANA |
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04-17-18 | Reds +141 v. Brewers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
957 Cincinnati at Milwaukee Romano & Guerra While the Reds enter play with the worst record in the league, this team is much better than the raw stats would indicate. Sal Romano is one of the Reds young starting group with a very nice upside. We have he and Guerra rated virtually equal in this matchup tonight. Road divisional dogs are a terrific subset in baseball handicapping and we just don’t trust Guerra here. He started the year in the minors as Milwaukee had lost faith in him. Now after one good outing he’s expected to regain past form. We’re not buying it as the Reds are the value team here. PLAY CINCINNATI |
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04-16-18 | Marlins v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 3 h 2 m | Show |
924 Miami at NY Yankees Smith & Severino While Caleb Smith is ranked better than many think he has his hands full on the road today in New York. He’s 24% worse than Severino and the Miami bullpen is 26% worse. Offensively the Marlins are 22% worse and Miami can’t compare in power with the Yankees. We expect this to be a non-competitive game so we have no problems laying the 1 1/2 runs here with the host. PLAY NY YANKEES RUN LINE |
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04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
26 Las Vegas at Los Angeles The first two games have been defensive struggles with both goalies doing outstanding work. Neither team is able to get off many clean shots as the defenses have been swarming. In almost eight full periods these two have combined for a total of four goals. When playing five on five the offenses have been dominated. No reason to expect anything different here. PLAY UNDER |
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04-14-18 | Giants v. Padres -107 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
912 San Francisco at San Diego Holland & Richard Anytime we get a chance to play against Derek Holland at a decent price we are going to take it. He was once a productive major league starter but injuries and DL stints have him hanging on to a job by a thread. Because the top three San Francisco starters are all injured we may get a long look at him in the rotation, which is good for our bankrolls. The starting and relief edges for the Padres are strong, and the offense is better than it has shown thus far. This line should be significantly higher. PLAY SAN DIEGO |
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04-13-18 | Kings v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
56 Los Angeles at Las Vegas Aware that there has been a Kings suspension today for a violent hit in the first game. But still feel this is going to be another major defensive game. Neither team had many fast break scoring chances in the opener, as both squad played terrific defense. The goalies were also outstanding as we have two of the league’s elite in this series. With LA shutting down the Vegas speed we look for another tight defensive effort. PLAY UNDER |
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04-12-18 | Blue Jackets +145 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 145 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
13 Columbus at Washington We like the Blue Jackets to win this series as an underdog, therefore of course we like them here at plus money in the opener. The goalie edge in this one for us goes to Bobrovsky, and we can’t trust the Captals. Washington continues to underperform expectations and the noose is getting tighter on this team. Columbus will play free an easy while all the pressure will be on the host. PLAY COLUMBUS |
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04-05-18 | Diamondbacks +108 v. Cardinals | 3-1 | Win | 108 | 6 h 38 m | Show | |
959 Arizona at St Louis Wrong team favored in our opinion as the starting pitcher edge for the Diamondbacks is a whopping 32%. Wainwright really struggled last year and just returned from an early DL stint. PLAY ARIZONA |
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04-04-18 | Heat -8 v. Hawks | 115-86 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show | |
507 Miami at Atlanta Hawks are in full tank mode while the Heat are looking to keep up in the playoff race. A majority of tickets have come in on the host, yet the line hasn’t moved. As we right this some of the sharper books are leaning toward a higher number. Let’s back the Heat here as the Hawks play dead once again. PLAY MIAMI |
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04-03-18 | Raptors v. Cavs OVER 222 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
703 Toronto at Cleveland The Cavs have had no answer for this Raptors offense. Toronto has scored 133 and 129 points in the first two meetings. While the Cleveland defense has gotten better the slashing Raptors have taken advantage of the Cleveland weakness, an inside defensive presence. Every game is important for Cleveland right now as it looks to hold onto the third seed in the east. Therefore since the team can’t slow down the Raptors, we expect LeBron and company to try to match them offensively, resulting in a high scoring contest. PLAY OVER |
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03-31-18 | Loyola-Chicago v. Michigan -5 | Top | 57-69 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
812 Loyola Chicago & Michigan Heard some quotes from other coaches who made the final four as surprise teams. They all said that the situation is totally different from anything these teams have seen in the past. Because of all the hoopla all the timing of a regular season game goes out the window. Not enough time for a normal shoot around, in and out of the locker room in less time than normal, stadium views as opposed to regular 20,000 seat or less dimensions. Loyola will be going through that for the first time today, while the other three teams have been through it before. On the court Michigan has the athletes to really give the Ramblers trouble. This will be the first time in the tournament in which Loyola will be at a defensive disadvantage. PLAY MICHIGAN |
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03-30-18 | Clippers +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
517 LA Clippers at Portland The road team has won outright all three meetings this season. The Clippers enter this game with double home loss revenge, but the defense is playing much better than the last time these two met two weeks ago. LA isn’t the most talented team in the league but you always seem to get a quality contest from this club. Portland has been all the rage for those looking to play on the hot team. The Blazers have won 17 of 21 games entering tonight. But we went against this team last time out with Memphis and Portland was beaten outright. We look to go against the overrated Blazers again tonight. PLAY LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS |
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03-29-18 | Bulls v. Heat -13 | Top | 92-103 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 1 m | Show |
704 Chicago at Miami The Bulls are in full tank zone after losing its sixth straight game, a 32 point defeat at Houston. Our clients took advantage of Chicago in that contest and we go right back to the well here. This is the first of a back to back for the Bulls, as it plays in Orlando tomorrow. A far easier team to beat than this Heat squad who is fighting for the playoffs. Miami is on a 10-6 straight up run including victories over Philadelphia twice, Washington and Cleveland. The Heat are well rested having not played a back to back game since March sixth. Miami is also off tomorrow before facing Brooklyn, Atlanta twice and New York. This is the time for the Heat to pad its resume. PLAY MIAMI |
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03-29-18 | Yankees -148 v. Blue Jays | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show | |
919 NY Yankees at Toronto This Yankee team is going to be murder against lefties this year, and while we like JA Happ this will be a tough matchup for him. We have Severino rated 28% better than the veteran lefty. With this being opening day the Yankee bullpen is completely fresh, which is bad news for the opposition. This could very well be the strongest bullpen in the history of baseball. Toronto is a team many people liked going into the season, but there are too many injury prone veterans on this team. Therefore we have the Jays rated lower than most others, which is likely why we find value going against them today. PLAY NY YANKEES |
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03-28-18 | Blazers v. Grizzlies +6 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
510 Portland at Memphis This one should be simple right? The Blazers enter this game having won 15 of 17, while the Grizzlies have lost 23 of 25. Unfortunately NBA handicapping is not that easy. This is the first of two meetings with Memphis in the next three games. The Blazers are playing back to back on the road after a 107-103 win in New Orleans yesterday. It’s also the third game in four days for Portland, all on the road. In the last 12 days the Grizzlies have been very competitive except the 140-79 embarrassment at Charlotte. Only two losses by double digits and two victories as well. Memphis has split the first two meetings in this series, and has had a very relaxing schedule of 8 of 9 games playing with rest. We expect this game to come down to the wire. PLAY MEMPHIS |
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03-27-18 | Bulls v. Rockets -13.5 | Top | 86-118 | Win | 100 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
768 Chicago at Houston Rockets had yesterday off after back to back blowouts of Atlanta and New Orleans. Houston plays again on Friday against Phoenix but has the next two days off. The Beard is out tonight which has driven the line down. But the numbers show that with Paul on the floor without him the team is only one point worse this season. Therefore the 3 1/2 point move is simply too much. Granted, against a good team it would make much more of a difference, but tonight the Rockets play the tanking Bulls. Chicago has lost four straight games by double digits, but three of those teams aren’t going to the playoffs. Houston has the best record in the league. We expect the Rockets to run up the score going deep on the bench for late game production. PLAY HOUSTON |
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03-25-18 | Duke -3 v. Kansas | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
721 Duke & Kansas The Blue Devils have been the best team in the country since going to a zone defense midway through the season. Duke has now held 12 straight teams to under 75 points. Duke allows just 46.2% effective field goals on the season. This team always recruits deadly shooters, and now with the team buying into the defensive end this team is extremely tough to beat. Kansas has won 11 of 12 heading into this contest, with the lone loss coming against Oklahoma State. But Penn, Seton Hall and Clemson has been one of the easiest roads in the tourney. We expect this line to climb, therefore lets lock in this number now on what we consider the clearly better team. PLAY DUKE |
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03-25-18 | Texas Tech +6.5 v. Villanova | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
719 Texas Tech & Villanova Sharp books are trending toward the underdog here and we fully agree. Tech has one of the best effective field goal defenses in the country at 46.7%, and Villanova has been shooting unworldly in the tournament as of late. Since the Big 12 Tournament nobody has surpassed 69 points on this team. Villanova was able to shoot over the West Virginia press, but we can’t expect those type of numbers again here. This line is just too high. PLAY TEXAS TECH |
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03-24-18 | Florida State +4 v. Michigan | Top | 54-58 | Push | 0 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
515 Florida State & Michigan Smart money is on the Seminoles as the sharper books are lowering the number. We fully agree with that assessment. We only have these teams ranked 16 places apart in our power ratings, not nearly the difference to have a line this high. Florida State has played the better defense and faced a tougher schedule of Missouri, Xavier and Gonzaga. Michigan is coming off a blowout win over Texas A&M where the team just couldn’t miss from the field. That result has pushed this line up at least two points from where it deserves to be. Another reason for the inflated line is that the Wolverines are on a 12 game winning streak. Handicapping 101 tells you that you lose value on a streaking team as others blindly play on a hot squad. Right now 71% of the bets have come in on the favorite, yet the line is dropping. PLAY FLORIDA STATE |
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03-23-18 | Syracuse v. Duke UNDER 132.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
876 Syracuse & Duke This is a very bad matchup for the Orangemen. Here we have two zone defenses with Duke switching to the zone half way through the season. In order to beat the zone you need to penetrate and dish. That would mean the ability to hit 3 point shots. Unfortunately for Syracuse the team has the worst 3 point shooting out of the Sweet 16 entrants at 31.7%. Duke only allows 31.9% from behind the arc. The Orange are also the slowest paced team, so it will take as much time as possible to take a shot. Syracuse does a nice job from distance defensively allowing just 32.1% shooting. The total in this game is on the low side, but it’s not low enough. These teams met in late February and Duke won 60-44. We expect another similar score here. PLAY UNDER |
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03-22-18 | Kansas State +6 v. Kentucky | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 32 h 35 m | Show |
813 Kansas State & Kentucky Many will overlook K State here based on facing Creighton and Maryland Baltimore County in the first two rounds. But this defense has been very good as of late with only Kansas and Oklahoma surpassing 67 points over the past five weeks. Kentucky enters this game having won 9 of 10 with the only loss coming at Florida. These Wildcats are peaking at tourney time which is a staple of this program. But wins over Davidson and Buffalo haven’t changed our minds on this squad. Kentucky has underperformed all year as opposed to prior editions, and we can’t see this team being a contender. With what is considered an easy slate to the final four we can see these young players buying into all the hype, taking these fellows Wildcats for granted. PLAY KANSAS STATE |
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03-20-18 | Pistons v. Suns OVER 215 | Top | 115-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
661 Detroit at Phoenix Now that the Pistons are virtually out of playoff contention we are seeing the Detroit defense pulling a no show. In 10 of the last 16 games opponents have reached 110 or more points. What was once a team strength has turn into a liability. Phoenix has been in tank mode for quite some time, especially on the defensive end. Here are the point totals allowed over the last eight games, 124, 116, 129, 122, 115, 125, 113 and 124 points. The Suns haven’t won two straight games since December, as the players are just running up and down the court to add to their stats. We expect this one to fly over the posted total. PLAY OVER |
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03-18-18 | Florida State v. Xavier -5.5 | Top | 75-70 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
720 Florida State & Xavier The Seminoles have staggered into the tournament having lost 6 of 11 games including the opening round win over Missouri. Three of those losses were to teams who didn’t make the Big Dance. Xavier only lost five games on the season, all to teams making the Big Dance. That includes two losses to Villanova and Providence. Better team with a cheap line. PLAY XAVIER |
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03-17-18 | Buffalo v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 2 h 19 m | Show |
538 Buffalo and Kentucky As much as we like the Bulls, and we had them in the opening round, the price is too cheap not to take the Wildcats here. The MAC has been terrible in the postseason whether it’s football or basketball. The teams just don’t match up to higher athletic teams. While Arizona struggled down the stretch of the season, the Wildcats are peaking at the right time. PLAY KENTUCKY |
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03-16-18 | Georgia State +14 v. Cincinnati | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 48 m | Show |
881 Georgia State and Cincinnati The Panthers are a tough matchup for the Bearcats with their excellent zone defense. Georgia State allows an effective field goal percentage of 47.1%. Cincinnati struggles offensively when facing a zone. The Bearcats just played three games in three days with every contest being decided by 10 points or less. In 3 of the last 4 contests Cincinnati scored 62 points or less. Tough to lay this type of number in what is expected to be a low scoring contest. PLAY GEORGIA STATE |
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03-16-18 | CS-Fullerton v. Purdue -20.5 | 48-74 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show | |
874 CS Fullerton and Purdue The Titans major problem here is that it can’t defend from behind the arc, which is what Purdue does best offensively. This team posted a solid 20-11 record but only outscored the opposition by a single point a game. Because of the Big 10 playing its tournament early at Madison Square Garden, Purdue will have 11 days off before this contest. Will the team be rusty or refreshed? We feel the extra rest will be a benefit after playing in the physical Big 10 conference. Purdue had a 15.5 scoring advantage on the season and had no problem running up scores in non-conference action. PLAY PURDUE |
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03-14-18 | UL-Lafayette +3.5 v. LSU | 76-84 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
615 UL Lafayette at LSU Rare opportunity for an in-state school to face the big boys in a tournament contest. With LSU having a disappointing season, we can see a good amount of this crowd cheering for the Rain Cajuns. Lafayette is 27-6 on the season and have a 4.2% effective field goal edge on the year. The Tigers lost to five teams who didn’t make the tournament. We can see this coming down to the final possession with he visitor cashing the ticket. PLAY UL LAFAYETTE |
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03-13-18 | Long Island +6 v. Radford | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
543 LIU Brooklyn and Radford The Blackbirds of Brooklyn enter the dance with just an 18-16 record. But it ended the season and the conference tourney by winning 12 of 17. Only one of the losses was by double digits, so even in defeat this team was competitive. The Radford Highlanders have the better 22-12 record but the team actually allows a higher effective field percentage than it generates itself, 49.5% to 49.4%. Brooklyn on the other hand has a 52.3% to 50% advantage. Radford doesn’t deserve to be this type of favorite tonight. PLAY LIU BROOKLYN |