Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-17 | Broncos -1.5 v. Dolphins | 9-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
359 Denver at Miami Now that the quarterback roulette wheel has landed on Trevor Siemian, we will look to back a Broncos team which has hit rock bottom. It’s now clear that the Broncos have the best chance to win behind this quarterback. He performed well this year when his surrounding players were healthy. That’s the case again here as Denver has finally gotten key pieces back in the lineup. Miami continues to struggle offensively while making mediocre offenses look good. Carolina with 45, Oakland with 27, the Jets with 28, Tampa Bay with 30 and Baltimore with 40 just in the past few weeks. Miami has virtually no home field advantage. We will back the Broncos here who still have the best unit on the field, the Denver defense. PLAY DENVER |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs v. Jets +3.5 | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 15 m | Show | |
368 Kansas City at NY Jets The Chiefs are in a freewill losing 5 of 6 with offensive outputs of 10, 9 and 17 the past three games. Opponents are stuffing the run and making Smith throw the ball long, a terrific strategy. KC has dropped three straight on the road to the struggling Giants, Cowboys and Raiders. Todd Bowles has gotten more out of his team this year than anyone in the league. This team gives full effort every time out, losing just once all season by double digits way back in week two. New York outplayed Carolina last week and couldn’t get the victory. We expect a better result out of the Jets here, who haven’t left the city since November 12th. PLAY NY JETS |
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12-02-17 | Georgia Southern v. Costal Carolina +3 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 35 m | Show | |
310 Georgia Southern at Coastal Carolina The Eagles look like a different team since the coaching change, winning two straight and covering 4 of 5. But despite the improvements in Statesboro we are surprised by this current line. We actually have Coastal favored here based on a great situational spot for the host. Georgia Southern is now playing its ninth straight week as its last bye happened on September 30th. The Chanticleers on the other hand had last week off after a 13-7 win in Idaho. Now the first year FBS squad can end the season on a two game winning streak by taking care of business at home. On the season Coastal is exactly even in explosive plays, at 44 each way. Georgia Southern on the other hand is -25 on the year, allowing a whopping 58 plays of 20 yards or more. Even in this covering string the Eagles have permitted 25 while accumulating just 16 explosive plays. Last weeks win at Louisiana was the first road win of the season for Georgia Southern, just can’t trust them as a road favorite here. PLAY COASTAL CAROLINA |
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11-30-17 | Stars +125 v. Blackhawks | 4-3 | Win | 125 | 7 h 56 m | Show | |
9 Dallas at Chicago We’ve been very selective with our NHL plays this year and it’s been to our advantage. Tuesday we went to the Knights game here in Vegas to watch a Dallas team totally outplay the host. Vegas has been the aggressor in just about every game this year and it couldn’t slow down this Dallas squad. Now on the road as an underdog we will back the Stars against what we consider to be an overrated host. PLAY DALLAS |
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11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 113-91 | Loss | -103 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
704 Cleveland at Philadelphia The Cavaliers enter here on a seven game winning streak, but we expect that run to end tonight. Cleveland has had a hard time matching up to young teams with a lot of speed this year, as Cleveland is the oldest squad in the league. This team has a 12-7 record against the 26th ranked schedule. The Cavs have taken advantage of playing the fifth easiest schedule in the league. Philadelphia on the other hand has an 11-7 record facing the hardest schedule in the league. The Sixers have already played Golden State twice, Boston, Toronto and Houston twice. The Sixers are great on the boards and are tough to stop inside offensively. The big weakness for the Cars is defending the paint. Major mismatch for the Sixers here who treat this like a playoff game tonight. PLAY PHILADELPHIA |
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11-26-17 | Bills +9 v. Chiefs | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 16 h 4 m | Show | |
257 Buffalo at Kansas City The Bills players and organization embarrassed themselves last week by putting in a rookie quarterback to start the game. The past three games the Bills refused to give themselves any chance by turning the ball over. Now with the rightful QB back behind center Buffalo has a chance to get back to its drive to make the playoffs. Keep in mind last week Buffalo was +7 with a rookie QB, now the line is higher with Taylor behind center. The Chargers are playing better ball than the Chiefs, yet the line is higher. Kansas City has lost 4 of its last 5 games with the only victory coming against a Denver team riding what is now a 6 game losing streak. The last four games KC has played the NY Giants, the Cowboys, the Broncos and the Raiders. Every one of those teams have been playing terrible ball. Can’t trust the Chiefs in this price range. PLAY BUFFALO |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show | |
261 Carolina at NY Jets Both teams enter off a bye week but we would much rather back the more talented Panthers squad here. Carolina has three losses on the season, losing to New Orleans and Philadelphia along the way. Carolina has beaten New England and Atlanta. The Jets were a major surprise out of the gate winning 3 of 5, but has since dropped 4 of 5. The only good team the Jets beat all season was Jacksonville in overtime. Only once all season has this team surpassed 28 points in a game. The Jets have an extremely tough schedule from here on out. We may have seen the last Jets win this season. PLAY CAROLINA |
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11-25-17 | Clemson v. South Carolina +13.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
198 Clemson at South Carolina We’ve had this game circled all season just like the homesteading Gamecocks. We love Dabo Swinney and everything he stands for, but it’s a miracle how well this team has done with such a drop-off in talent. Despite having the better personnel in a vast majority of games, the Tigers have only started three first half drives in opponent territory. The defense just isn’t the same as in past editions. While very good it’s not excellent as it was a year ago. As for the key stat of explosive plays, Clemson is +6 on the season. The worst for all the teams considered to be in the running for the Final Four. South Carolina is +8 on the season in explosive plays and it has eight drives starting in opponent territory in the first half. Will Muschamp has done an outstanding job in his second year in Columbia. While the stats don’t always show it, this team finds ways to win. This is a huge rivalry in the state of South Carolina. Last year Clemson pummeled the Gamecocks 56-7. You know this game has been circled and now South Carolina has the personnel to take this to the wire. An outright upset would not surprise. PLAY SOUTH CAROLINA |
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11-25-17 | Iowa State +3 v. Kansas State | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
163 Iowa State at Kansas State Really like the job Matt Campbell has done here in his second season. He took over a program that was 3-9, 2-10 and 3-9 the previous three seasons. In just his second year the Cyclones had improved so much there was talk of the Big 12 Championship going through Ames. But after losses to West Virginia by 4 and Oklahoma State by 7 this team has become an afterthought. Not in our eyes as we really like the situation and the matchup here. Let’s take a look at how the Cyclones have done on the road this year. A 41-14 win at Akron who is playing in the MAC Championship game. A 38-31 win at Oklahoma, a team likely to play for the National Championship. A 31-13 win at Texas A&M, a 23-13 win at Baylor and a 20-16 loss at West Virginia. That’s a pretty good road season by anyones standards. Kansas State is exactly even in explosive plays this year, Iowa State is +15. The Wildcats haven’t has a bye since September 23rd, and are coming off three straight games that were get wrenching. A 42-35 overtime win at Texas Tech, a 28-23 loss hosting West Virginia, and a 45-40 upset victory at Oklahoma State last week. K State was a 19 1/2 point underdog in that contest. Can’t expect a full tank of gas out of the host here, who really shouldn’t be favored. PLAY IOWA STATE |
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11-24-17 | South Florida v. Central Florida -10 | 42-49 | Loss | -102 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
138 South Florida at Central Florida Likely the most overrated team in the country is the South Florida Bulls. This team has had a cakewalk schedule and lost to the only decent team it played, Houston as a 10 point favorite. The Knights will be much better than any squad this team has faced all year. This is a double revenge game for UCF after losing to the Bulls each of the last two seasons. While UCF hasn’t played a high quality schedule either, it did beat Memphis, Navy and SMU. UCF has a +39 explosive play advantage on the season, while the Bulls are at +19. A win here and the Knights finish the regular season undefeated. The double revenge angle doesn’t hurt. This team has had this game circled all year. Now its time to show your strengths. PLAY CENTRAL FLORIDA |
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11-24-17 | Navy v. Houston -4.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
130 Navy at Houston We’ve been disappointed in this Navy team all season. Sure a 6-4 straight up mark is fine, but it pails in comparison to previous editions. A major problem is turnovers. This year in first half the Midshipmen are down 7 turnovers, something hard to imagine for a club that doesn’t throw the ball. In the last nine seasons Navy only had one year it didn’t have a turnover advantage. That was in 2014 when it was -4 on the year. Navy is also at a -7 margin in explosive plays. This team is also off a hard fought rivalry game with Notre Dame with Army on deck. Houston is the fresher team after having a bye two weeks ago before coming up short at Tulane. That should provide all the motivation the Cougars need to end the regular season. Houston is +1 in explosive plays and does a nice job against the run. That’s the key in this matchup as Navy is one-dimensional. Houston lost to Navy last year as a 17 point favorite, so you know this team has had this game circled. PLAY HOUSTON |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss +16 v. Mississippi State | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 81 h 39 m | Show | |
113 Mississippi at Mississippi State These two teams are heading in opposite directions heading into the Egg Bowl. Mississippi is playing much better ball down the stretch of the season, after struggling out of the gate. The Rebels are 2-2 SU with the losses coming by 7 points to Texas A&M and a single point against Arkansas. The offense has improved steadily, while the defense played its best two games of the season the past two weeks. The Mississippi State Bulldogs were riding high on a four game winning streak before hosting Alabama. The game was tied at the half and the Crimson Tide dominated late in a 7 point Bulldog loss. Last week this team really struggled against an Arkansas team that had fired its coach and athletic director. The offense hasn’t looked nearly as explosive as earlier in the year. Mississippi needs this game to be bowl eligible and looks for revenge after a 55-20 loss at this location last year. Keep in mind the Rebels had won 3 of the four previous meetings with the only defeat coming in overtime. This line is simply too high. PLAY MISSISSIPPI |
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11-22-17 | Clippers -2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 116-103 | Win | 100 | 6 h 23 m | Show |
507 LA Clippers at Atlanta The Clippers have lost 9 straight games and finish off the road trip at Atlanta and Sacramento. A nice pair to get right against. While LA enters this contest with a 5-11 record, the nine straight losses have come against all teams expected to be in playoff contention. The Hawks, not so much. Atlanta is just 3-14 on the year. And have played about how you would expect from a team that was gutted in the off-season. The Hawks have one victory at home all year and that was against equally inept Sacramento. The Clippers have far better talent here and get back in the win column on Wednesday. PLAY LA CLIPPERS |
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11-21-17 | Kent State +15 v. Akron | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
101 Kent State at Akron This is the biggest rival for each of these programs as the campuses are roughly 20 miles from each other. The Golden Flashes have had a disappointing season but a season ending win over its rival would be a big boost to the offseason morale. Especially because it would likely keep Akron out of the MAC title game. Akron really pulled off a shocker last week beating Ohio U as a 15 point home underdog. That was after the Bobcats pounded Toledo the week before. We expect this Zips team to look more like the team that enters here with a 5-5 SU record in FBS games this season. Because of the importance of this game the line is 5 points higher than what it should be. For comparison sake let’s take a look at common opponents over the last 6 weeks. Akron was +15 at home last week against Ohio U, while a month ago the Flashes were +17 on the road in Athens. Six weeks ago Akron was +12 1/2 at Western Michigan, while two weeks ago the Flashes were +20 1/2 at the same venue. With these examples we see Akron being an 11 point favorite here at best. We take the generous number here as the Golden Flashes make this a game. PLAY KENT STATE |
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11-18-17 | Oklahoma -36.5 v. Kansas | 41-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
343 Oklahoma at Kansas Is is possible that the Sooners will have a letdown after facing TCU and Oklahoma State? Most likely. But is Kansas good enough to stop a possibly disinterested foe? Highly unlikely. With just Kansas and West Virginia to end the regular season the Sooners can only help themselves in the committee minds by winning in blowout fashion. Here is the season long explosive play numbers for these two teams. Oklahoma 88 to 48. Kansas 32 to 63. That’s a combined 71 explosive play difference for the Sooners. Sure the line is high but keep in mind Kansas has allowed 35 first half points three times this season.Oklahoma has produced 35 or better first half points three times this season. In the last two weeks the Sooners put up 38 first half points against TCU and Oklahoma State. This one should be decided very quickly. PLAY OKLAHOMA |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 25 h 57 m | Show | |
375 Virginia at Miami Florida The Cavaliers have really improved from the 2-10 season Bronco Mendenhall had in his first season in Charlottesville. Virginia has won 5 of 8 including beating Boise State and Georgia Tech. Miami should be in for a letdown here after facing Notre Dame and Virginia Tech the past two weeks. Keep in mind Miami has a short week ahead as it travels to Pittsburgh next Friday. After beating the Cavaliers the past two seasons we can see the Hurricane being let than focused here. While others vying for the national title have terrific explosive play numbers, Miami is only up 15 on the season. PLAY VIRGINIA |
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11-18-17 | UL-Monroe +37 v. Auburn | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
385 Louisiana Monroe at Auburn The Warhawks enter this game off a bye off wins over Appalachian State and Idaho. We expect the positive vibe to continue here as ULM looks to perform much better than last years 58-7 loss to these Tigers. This is the ultimate sandwich situation for the Tigers. Off beating #1 Georgia and having Alabama on deck. If Auburn can beat the Tide next week and Georgia again in the league championship, Auburn will have a chance to make the final four. We can see the coaching staff resting key players here, which will make it hard for the Tigers to surpass this number. PLAY ULM |