Stephen Nover
I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs Spurs | Knicks +5 -115 | Top Premium | 105-95 | Win | 100 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
There should be extra motivation and defensive intensity given that this is a Commissioner’s Cup game.
Atlanta has a couple of outstanding scorers in Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard. But the Dream are 6-2 because of their defense. They give up the second fewest points per game, allow the fewest free throws and rank first in 3-point defense. None of that is good for gunner Caitlin Clark.
Indiana managed only 84 points against expansion Portland, a below average defense, in its last game. That was this past Saturday. The Fever could be rusty with their shooting having been idle for so long. But that ample preparation time should mean needed defensive adjustments. This will be a test for Fever coach Stephanie White, who has drawn criticism for her handling of Clark.
This is what Indiana's star center Aliyah Boston was quoted as saying about this game: “I think (No.) 1, make sure we clean up the glass and not give teams second-chance points, which I think is gonna be super important against (the Dream).” That tells me the Fever will be committed to defense - at least for this game.
I am not expecting only one run to be scored like there were in the Giants' 1-0 win against the Brewers on Wednesday night. But I also am not expecting double digit runs to be scored.
This is a get-away, day game where starters are often given rest and everybody wants to get the game finished fast.
San Francisco has neither power nor speed. It is why the Giants are second to last in the majors in runs scored. San Francisco has scored three or fewer runs in four of their last five games.
The Brewers have scored two or fewer runs in four of their last seven games.
But the total is large here because the oddsmaker is pricing the starting pitching matchup of Adrian Houser against Brewers rookie Coleman Crow.
Houser has a 5.59 ERA. However, his ERA is 4.79 on the road and shrinks even more to 3.90 when he pitches during the day.
Crow has good numbers in a small sample of three big league starts with a 3.14 ERA, 0.6 home runs and 1.9 walks per nine innings allowed. Milwaukee has the fifth lowest bullpen ERA at 3.16.
SERVICE BIO
Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.
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