Stephen Nover

Stephen Nover

I have had only two losing season in pro football in my handicapping career. I have the best sources in the business thanks to more than 25 years as a sportswriter, handicapper and analyst.

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Free picks

Game Details
May 11 '21, 3:45 PM in 4h
MLB | TEX vs SFO
Play on: OVER 8 -109
Game Analysis

Once upon a time, I thought Jordan Lyles was going to be a good pitcher. That never materialized. Lyles is having another bad season going 1-2 with a 7.09 ERA. That ERA balloons to 11.57 if you go by his last three starts. Opponents have slugged at least one home run in each of Lyles' last 12 starts going back to last season. The Giants rank No. 3 in the majors in home runs. Brandon Belt and Buster Posey have each hit eight homers. 

 But I'm not about to lay this high of a price on the Giants since they're pitching Logan Webb. I thought he showed promise during spring training, but he's disappointed so far with a 1-3 record and 5.34 ERA. Webb isn't in good form, giving up nine earned runs during his last 9 2/3 innings.  The Rangers have shown surprising offense ranking in the top-eight in batting average and homers. This despite playing in their new stadium, Globe Life Park. It's one of the best pitching parks in the majors. Texas has some underrated hitters with Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nick Solak and Nate Lowe.  Returning to the Rangers' lineup is Khris Davis. This is a huge plus for the Over because Davis is a supreme power-hitter, but a bad fielder. Normally he's a DH, but playing at a National League park he has to be hidden in the outfield like he was in left field on Monday night.  The weather conditions will be nice with the forecast for temperatures in the high 60's and a slight wind blowing out to center.  If Lyles and Webb pitch according to form there should be no problem for each of these teams to produce at least four runs apiece.  (Editor's note: Stephen Nover has a Max Unit baseball underdog play going today in addition to this free selection. Stephen is on a 70 percent hot streak on his premium side/run line plays. Don't miss any of Stephen's plays, all of which come with his trademark deep analysis.) 
  
   

Pick Released on May 11 at 01:39 am

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SERVICE BIO

Sports gaming writer for Las Vegas Review-Journal 1984-1997. Professional handicapper since 1999. Author of three books - Las Vegas Sportsbeat, Sportsgaming Beat, Winning Fantasy Football. Taught sports betting at UNLV. Former co-host of the Sunday Night Stardust Line sports gaming radio show. Was part-time oddsmaker and analyst for Roxy Roxborough. Recognized NFL expert with 21 of 23 winning seasons.