The Cavaliers have been great in their two Game 7's during the playoffs. But they haven't been so good in their opening playoff game. They lost by 10 points on the road to the Pistons in Game 1 in their recently concluded series.

The timing is not good for Cleveland to stay close in this Game 1 opening playoff series road matchup against the Knicks.

While the Cavaliers are off an emotional road upset of the Pistons two days ago, the Knicks have been rested and prepared for the past nine days after sweeping the 76ers in their second round playoff series.

This setup is similar to when the Knicks hosted the 76ers in Game 1. Philadelphia had just upset the Celtics on the road in Game 7. They weren't ready to play and got blown out by the Knicks by 39 points.

The Knicks are riding a seven-game winning streak where they outscored their opponents by an NBA-record 185 points.

I find the Knicks to be the best team in the Eastern Conference. They have the top net rating of all the playoff teams during the postseason so far.

It is not a fluke. Credit to the Cavaliers for taking out the Pistons in come from behind style. But the Knicks have the better up and down roster, the superior defense and are in a hugely advantageous situation. 

The Pistons know this spot - a Game 7 at home. They were in this same situation just two weeks ago hosting Orlando. Detroit came through with a 116-94 victory.

Now the Pistons host the Cavaliers. Same scenario. Yes, Cleveland is better than Orlando. But the Cavaliers are not trustworthy on the road. They are 1-5 SU and ATS in their playoff away games.

Detroit is the superior defensive team. The combination of the Pistons' defense, being at home and Cleveland's lack of playoff success on the road puts me on the Pistons.

Home court and defense matter very much in this series. Detroit has both going in this Game 5.

The Pistons have won their last five home playoff games - two against the Cavaliers and three versus the Magic. Detroit allowed an average of only 96.8 points a game during these games.

Cleveland is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five road playoff games, losing twice to the Pistons and three times to the Raptors.

The Pistons win when they get defensive stops. That should be the case here. The Pistons ranked third defensively and also were third in defensive field goal percentage while being the top rated defensive 3-point team.

The Cavaliers are not as strong defensively ranking 11th defensively and 26th in 3-point defense. They are soft away from home. Don't expect the Cavaliers to get 20 fewer fouls called on them than the Pistons like they did during the past two games in Cleveland.

I want the WNBA champion Aces going for me following their embarrassing, 99-66, season-opening home loss to the Mercury on Saturday.

Distracted by the pregame ring ceremony celebrating their title, the Aces were flat. It was a huge revenge spot for the Mercury, who were swept by the Aces in the WNBA finals. Phoenix played well and with more desire than Las Vegas. 

Expect the Aces to play much better today and with far more intensity. Las Vegas closed out last season winning its final 16 regular season games. They should be even better this season with the addition of talented guard Chennedy Carter joining league MVP A'ja Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Jewell Loyd.

The Sparks had a losing record last season and did not make the playoffs. They are better this year, but still are several tiers below the Aces.

It is LA's season opener. The Aces are in an advantageous situation having already played a game. Fatigue is not a factor for the Aces playing without rest since it is just the second game of the season and Wilson, Gray and Young all were rested the entire fourth quarter against Phoenix. 

The Cavaliers are in must-win mode down 0-2 against the Pistons in this playoff series. I expect the Cavaliers to get the job done with the series shifting to Cleveland. 

Cleveland is 8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS in its last eight home games. This includes going 4-0 at home against the Raptors in the first round. 

The Pistons went 1-2 SU and ATS at Orlando during their first round playoff series against the Magic. 

Cleveland was 7-of-32 from 3-point range in Game 2 and James Harden missed 10 of 13 shots from the floor. I don't see Cleveland and Hardin being nearly this cold in Game 3. 

The 76ers very well could cause problems to the Knicks in this playoff series. But I don't see it happening in this Game 1. The timing and situation just don't work for the 76ers here.

Philadelphia just won a grueling seven-game series against the Celtics. The 76ers accomplished this by beating Boston, 109-100, as mid-sized underdogs this past Saturday. It is one of their biggest franchise victories in the last 25 years.

But this is not enough recovery time - both physically and mentally - for the 76ers to perform well here against a rested New York team that just outscored the Hawks by an average of 32 points per game in winning the last three games of its playoff series.

The Knicks' offense is humming. The 76ers ranked 19th defensively. Fragile Joel Embiid is likely to play, but he is not 100%.

This one sets up for the Knicks and they get the job done. 

Injuries have robbed the Timberwolves of Anthony Edwards, the NBA's third leading scorer at 28.8 points a game, and scrappy point guard Donte DiVincenzo. Edwards has a hyperextended knee and DiVincenzo suffered a ruptured Achilles.

Minnesota's home court advantage doesn't come close to compensating for those crucial injuries.  

Knucklehead Jaden McDaniels didn't do the Timberwolves any favors either when he scored a meaningless layup in the final seconds of Game 4's blowout Minnesota victory.

That drew the ire of the prideful Nuggets and woke up Nikola Jokic, who responded with 27 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds in Denver's, 125-113, Game 5 victory. That game wasn't even as close as the final score. Denver led by 27 points at one point.

Facing elimination down 3-2 in the series, the Nuggets now have their confidence and intensity. This really is the series as I don't expect Denver to lose at home if there is a Game 7. I expect the Nuggets to be up for the challenge and to cover this number.

Phoenix has not been competitive in losing the first two games of this playoff series to Oklahoma City. But now the scene shifts to Phoenix for this Game 3.

The Suns are going to give a monster effort here after being embarrassed in the first two games. The Thunder are without Jalen Williams and his 20 points per game. He suffered a hamstring injury in the last game and is out.

Oklahoma City may be the best team in the NBA, but they are not good at covering point spreads going 8-14 ATS in their last 22 games.

Phoenix has the defense, motivation and home court advantage to stay within single digits. The Suns gave up the sixth fewest points during the regular season and ranked second in 3-point defense.

This is a big game for the Hornets. Not only is it their final regular season home game, but they are trying to catch the Raptors to earn the sixth playoff seed in the Eastern Conference.

Charlotte also wants to prove it can beat Detroit having lost both meetings to the Pistons this season.

The situation lays out for the Hornets to do just that. The much improved Hornets are 11-4 in their last 15 games. They have covered nine of their past 12 games and have been idle since Tuesday.

The Pistons don't need this game. They have earned a well-deserved rest having clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference.

Cade Cunningham returned to the Pistons this past Wednesday after having missed 11 games because of a collapsed lung. Cunningham may not play on Friday, though. If he does, he likely will be on a minutes restriction.

Sparked by the return of all-time great Stephen Curry, Golden State nearly upset Houston at home this past Sunday losing by one point. The game was nationally televised and Curry made it exciting.

The Warriors and their crowd were up for that game as it was Curry's first action in more than two months. This matchup against lowly Sacramento is much different.

Golden State realistically is locked into the No. 10 seed in the Play-In Tournament. This is the first of four games in six days to close out the regular season for the Warriors. Golden State coach Steve Kerr isn't interested in covering a lopsided point spread margin like this.

Kerr wants to get Curry acclimated again and to ease him into the playoffs. Curry, who missed 27 straight games because of a right knee injury, scored 29 points in just 26 minutes against Houston.

I doubt the Warriors have nearly the same intensity here that they did against Houston in Curry's first game back. Curry is going to be on a minute's restriction. While Curry will play, Jimmy Butler,  Moses Moody and Al Horford  are all out and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with knee injury.

Golden State is 5-14 in its last 19 games, including losing four in a row. The Warriors have won by more than 15 points just once in their last 29 games. Yes, most of those games were without Curry. But even with Curry, the Warriors are far from a dominant team.

Sacramento is 1-1 versus the Warriors this season. The Kings were blown out by the Clippers, 138-109, in their most recent game this past Sunday. Prior to that, however, the Kings beat the Pelicans straight up as a 6 1/2-point underdog and upset the Raptors, 123-115, as a 13-point road underdog. The Kings have covered four of their last six games. 

Like him or not, Dan Hurley has done an excellent job getting UConn to this NCAA tournament title game. Unfortunately for the Huskies, an all-time great Michigan team awaits them.

Connecticut's tough defense isn't going to be able to stop the Wolverines and the Huskies' offense isn't good enough to trade points.

Michigan is averaging 94.4 points a game in its five NCAA tournament games. The Wolverines are the only team in tourney history to score 90 or more points in each of their first five games.

I don't think the Huskies are as good as Arizona and Michigan beat the Wildcats by 18 points.

Statistically, Michigan has the better numbers and the Wolverines played in the stronger Big Ten Conference. Michigan’s offensive firepower advantage and interior defensive dominance should not only result in a victory, but a cover too. 

The Hornets have been one of the hottest teams in the league in the second half of the season, winning 28 of their last 31 games. Kudos to Charlotte.

But our concern is the point spread. Charlotte is just 7-7 ATS in that regard the past 14 games, while the Pacers have covered seven in a row. Indiana's flying below the radar with straight up victories against the Bulls and Heat in its last two games.

Indiana only has lost by more than 15 points once in its last 12 games. The Pacers are 2-1 against Charlotte this season.

Of utmost importance is the situation. Indiana was idle on Thursday while Charlotte played and defeated the Suns, 127-107, at home. This will be the Hornets' fifth game in the last seven days and they will be playing without rest.

Charlotte has the incentive of  competing for playoff seeding, while the Pacers are playing for a high draft choice.

However, the Hornets have to be smart about things. Following this matchup, their final four regular season games are against the Timberwolves, Celtics, Pistons and Knicks. So the backdoor could swing wide open for the Pacers if they were to fall substantially behind. 

The Golden Knights have had just four coaches in their franchise history. John Tortorella is the fourth.

Frustrated by losing six of their last seven games, the Golden Knights saw a move to get one of the great coaches of all time and swung the axe on Bruce Cassidy. Tortorella is a two-time coach of the year and ranks ninth all-time in victories with 770.

Tortorella inherits a Golden Knights squad that is third in the Pacific Division and trails Edmonton by three points for second.

Not only should the Golden Knights be highly fired up following excruciating back-to-back home losses in extra time, losing to the Oilers, 4-3, in overtime this past Thursday and 5-4 in a shootout to the Capitals this past Saturday, but they will be motivated to the max for Tortorella's first game.

Las Vegas couldn't have asked for a more hapless opponent for the occasion drawing Vancouver. The Canucks are far and away the worst team in the NHL. The Canucks have allowed a league-high 271 goals while scoring just 180, fewest in the NHL.

Vancouver has lost five in a row, getting outscored 25-9 in the process. Each of the Canucks' past seven losses have come by more than one goal. 

The oddsmaker knows all of this of course. But this is a clear kill spot for the Golden Knights. Laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line is the way to cut down on the heavy juice. 

Maybe the most impressive thing about Iowa's upset of Florida last week was the Hawkeyes achieved the victory despite their star, Bennett Stirtz, going 0-for-9 from 3-point range and scoring only 13 points.

Nebraska is on house money having ended an 0-8 NCAA Tournament history and survived Vanderbilt, 74-72. The Commodores made just 41% of their shots from the field and made only 58% of their free throws against the Cornhuskers.

Credit to Nebraska's defense. But Iowa's defense is slightly better than the Cornhuskers. Plus the Hawkeyes are the superior defensive rebounding team and free throw shooting team. They beat Nebraska, 57-52, at home and lost in overtime to the Cornhuskers on the road.

These two Big Ten teams certainly know each other well. No knock on Nebraska coach Fred Hoiberg, but Iowa's Ben McCollum is in the argument for best coach in the country and Stirtz is the best player on the floor.

I like that McCollum has ample time to prepare for Nebraska's unique defense and its heavy reliance upon 3-pointers.

Because the Cornhuskers are so reliant upon shooting 3-pointers, it is more of a negative to them with this game being played at a neutral site, the Toyota Center in Houston. 

Maybe it is because they want Cooper Flagg to win Rookie of the Year honors. Because lately the Mavericks have proven to be quite feisty. They have taken both the Warriors and Clippers to overtime in their last two games.

The Nuggets have not been anything special the past two months going just 13-13.

But what really makes Dallas a strong play here are the scheduling dynamics. The Mavericks were idle yesterday. Denver wasn't. The Nuggets had to go all out to squeeze a 125-123 road win against the Suns last night. All but one of Denver's starters played at least 32 minutes in that game.

The last time the Nuggets played without rest was a week ago against the Grizzlies. Memphis not just  covered as 12 1/2-point home 'dogs, but won straight-up, 125-118. This is Denver's sixth game in nine days, too. It is a big letdown spot for the Nuggets.

Dallas has put up 120 or more points in five of its last seven games. The Nuggets rank 20th defensively. Denver's strength is its offense and No. 1 ranked 3-point shooting. The Mavericks' defensive strength is their No. 2 ranked 3-point defense.

The Mavericks are 2-1 against the Nuggets this season. 

The records show UNLV to be 18-16 and Tulsa 27-7. Sometimes records are not a good indicator of who is going to cover, especially when it comes to the NIT.

But not in this case.

Tulsa is a much better team than UNLV on both sides of the ball. Toss in a home court edge and this point spread is too short.

The Golden Hurricane rank 23rd in the country in scoring and have the 11th best 3-point shooting percentage. UNLV has much worse defensive numbers, ranks 99th in scoring and 148th in 3-point shooting.

The Rebels' 3-point defense goes all the way down to 303rd when they are the road team. UNLV also has trouble limiting turnovers when away from home.

UNLV is heavily reliant upon one scorer, Dra Gibbs-Lawson. However, Gibbs-Lawson runs hot and cold. 

Texas A&M is going to have a lot of trouble with Saint Mary's grind out, slow down style. I rate the Gaels' Randy Bennett as one of the better coaches in the country. Bennett has had ample time to prepare his team for the Aggies' frenzied style.

The Aggies give up nearly 14 more points per game than Saint Mary's and are a very bad defensive rebounding team. The Aggies are not in great form either, just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. They are 3-9 versus NCAA Tourney teams this season.

Saint Mary's ranks 21nd defensively giving up 66.3 points a game. They are 10th in 3-point shooting. Since Feb. 1, the Gaels have had the best 3-point shooting percentage of any team in the field. Oh yes, the Gaels also are the most accurate free throw shooting team in the country. 

This high point spread might be accurate if Auburn cared about this game. But the Tigers don't. They are still disappointed about being omitted from the 68-team NCAA Tournament field fight despite having played the third hardest schedule in the country.

I don't see the Tigers being ready, or motivated, to play up to their capability. They are 3-9 in their last dozen games.

South Alabama, on the other hand, has plenty of incentive. “It’s an honor for our team to be invited to play in the NIT,” South Alabama coach Richie Riley was quoted as saying. “This group has battled adversity all season and is truly deserving of this opportunity. I’m thankful that I’m going to get to coach these guys for a little longer.”

The Jaguars are 21-11. They've only lost once by more than 13 points and that came to East Tennessee State, which won the Southern Conference.

South Alabama has the Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year in Chaze Harris, who averages 18.9 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. The Jaguars will be going all out to prove themselves against their bigger in-state rival. 

The Rockets have a rest advantage and home court edge where they are 23-8. They also draw the Lakers fat and happy after LA escaped with a controversial, 127-125, overtime home win against the Nuggets this past Saturday.

Houston matches up well to the Lakers. That was evident in the previous meeting this season between the two teams. The Rockets buried the Lakers, 119-96, at LA on Christmas Day. The Lakers had all of their star players in action, too.

The Lakers' problem against the Rockets is their offense is set up for their star players to do their thing in isolation rather than do a lot of off ball movement. Houston's defense is more bothered by motion offenses. 

The Rockets' defense has been in good form lately, too, giving up 105 or fewer points in regulation during four of their last six games.

The Wild are in a mood to stomp a weak foe such as the Maple Leafs. Minnesota has lost two straight home games getting upset by the Rangers and Flyers as big home chalk. I don't see it happening a third time against Toronto. This is a kill spot for Minnesota.

The Maple Leafs have been a major disappointment this season. They are 1-9 in their last 10 games, out of playoff contention and recently lost their team captain and star center Austin Matthews for the season.

Both teams are in action for the fourth time in six days. There is a difference, however. Minnesota has been home for nearly a week while Toronto is playing at its fourth different venue and coming off a shootout loss to the Sabres on Saturday. 

I like Utah Valley to beat California Baptist in the Western Athletic Conference Tournament championship game.  The Wolverines had their scare in yesterday's game beating UT Arlington, 67-65, as an 8 1/2-point favorite. Utah Valley got the rust off in that game having not played for six days. The Wolverines also got used to the small venue at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, site of the tournament.

Utah Valley has won 10 of its last 11 games, including the past seven. The Wolverines average 84 points a game, which is 11 more than California Baptist averages. Utah Valley ranks 11th in the country in field goal percentage. The Lancers rank 299th in field goal percentage.

The two teams are next to even in defensive field goal percentage ranking 38th and 39th, respectively, holding opponents to 41.4 percent shooting.

Utah Valley has defeated the Lancers in eight of the last 10 meetings.

Nothing against Michigan, but I trust Tom Izzo and want Michigan State going for me with this many points. Michigan is the superior team. No argument there. But the Spartans are very good, too, and the Wolverines may not be as fully motivated as usual since they have already clinched the Big Ten title.

Michigan State had a disastrous first half in its first meeting against Michigan on Jan. 30. The Spartans missed 14 of their first 18 shots and trailed by 16 points at halftime. Michigan State ended up making only 4-of-23 shots from 3-point range for 17 percent. The Spartans average 35.6 percent from 3-point range on the season. Despite the horrendous shooting, Michigan State lost by only eight points.

I expect the Spartans to shoot better. Michigan gives up only 1.7 fewer points per game than Michigan. Both are very tough defensively. Michigan State leads the country in defensive rebound.

The Wolverines have less rotation depth than they did in the first meeting having lost sophomore guard L.J. Cason (8.4 ppg) to a torn ACL last week.

Not only is Coastal Carolina better than Georgia Southern, but the Chanticleers have a huge rest advantage.

Georgia Southern, 8-10 in the Sun Belt Conference, is playing for the fourth straight day. Coastal Carolina enters this Sun Belt Conference Tournament quarterfinal completely rested having last played on Feb. 27. The Chanticleers earned their bye going 11-7 in conference action.

Coastal Carolina gives up nearly eight fewer points per game than the Eagles. The Chanticleers also hold a strong rebounding edge. They led the Sun Belt in defensive rebounding. 

Cincinnati is off a stunning, 84-68, road upset of Kansas this past Saturday. The Bearcats were 8 1/2-point underdogs.

I would be very surprised if Cincinnati pulls off a similar away upset here against Texas Tech. Not only are the Bearcats in a letdown spot, but they are 2-5 in their Big 12 road games.

Cincinnati's defense has been much worse when not playing at home and the Bearcats rank last in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting percentage. They also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation ranking 334th.

Texas Tech is 13-1 at home. That includes a 6-1 conference home mark. The Red Raiders are second in the Big 12 in 3-point shooting percentage and in field goal percentage. They average 10 more points per game than Cincinnati.

I thought this line would be much higher even with star big man J.T. Toppin lost for the season with a knee injury. The Red Raiders blew out Kansas State, 100-72, as 12 1/2-point home favorites on Saturday in their first game without Toppin, who was the Big 12 Player of the Year last season.

This line has been discounted because of Toppin being out. Texas Tech, however, has a deep roster and still has star players with Christian Anderson, who averages 19.1 points a game and leads the Big 12 in assists, and Donovan Atwell. He leads the Big 12 with 100 made 3-pointers and is second in the conference in 3-point shooting accuracy.

The Red Raiders are anxious to prove they can still win without Toppin and they want to do it at home in front of a national TV audience with this game being broadcast on ESPN2. 

Covering this large of a point spread isn't easy in the NBA. It is especially difficult when you are rusty and have multiple key injuries. That's the situation the Thunder are in hosting the Nets.

The Thunder haven't played in eight days. They will be without stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams, along with sixth-man Ajay Mitchell.

Oklahoma City is 7-7 in its last 14 games as its injuries have taken a toll. Gilgeous-Alexander has missed the last five games with an abdominal strain. He is the second-leading scorer in the NBA at 31.8 points a game.

The Nets got their post-All-Star break rust off getting blown out by the Cavaliers, 112-84, on the road last night. Cleveland played an outstanding game in raising its hot streak to 11-1. The Thunder host the Cavaliers in a nationally televised Sunday game. Oklahoma City cares more about that matchup than hosting the lowly Nets.

Brooklyn coach Jordi Fernandez ripped his team after the blowout loss to the Cavaliers. “It was the lack of effort and readiness," he was quoted as saying. "I’m not going to let it fly. ... Once again, we know we’re better. Our standards are higher than this and now we’ve got to move onto the next one. We’ve got to hold everybody accountable, myself included, and then go and fight better.”

I'm expecting a much better effort from the Nets. The timing is right for them to make this a close game against a wounded powerhouse that is rusty and also in a look-ahead spot.

Vermont has dominated the America East Conference, winning or owning a share of the regular-season crown in eight of the last nine seasons. But to those who seriously follow this conference, UMBC is the better team this season. The Catamounts are down from past years.

UMBC has the better conference record and two fewer losses overall than Vermont. The Retrievers lead the league with a +6.3 scoring margin, give up the fewest points per game in conference play and also are No. 1 in defensive rebounding.

They also have a winning point spread record which Vermont doesn't have. The Catamounts give up more points per game than UMBC and rank 286th in 3-point defense. The Catamounts are 70th in 3-point defense.

The Retrievers are 9-2 at home. They have won six of their last seven games. UMBC is on a four-game win streak, winning their past three games by an average of 18.3 ppg. This is the Retrievers' best conference start since their 2007-2008 championship season.

The oddsmaker has made a mistake opening Vermont as a road favorite.

This is bad on bad. Northwestern is home, but certainly doesn't deserve to be this high of a favorite. Maryland has the better overall and Big Ten Conference record.

The Terrapins are playing better, too. They are 2-1 in their last three games with upset victories against Iowa, 77-70, and at Minnesota, 67-62. The Terrapins were plus 10 1/2 vs. Iowa and plus 9 1/2 against the Gophers.

Northwestern has lost five consecutive games. The Wildcats are averaging 60 points per game during this span. They have no business laying this many points. Maryland nearly swept them last season winning, 74-61, at home and losing, 76-74, in overtime on the road.

Rider hosted Sacred Heart on Jan. 19. It did not go well for Rider. The Broncos lost, 105-85.

No surprise as Rider is 3-21, including having a 2–13 Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference record. Sacred Heart is 11-16 and 7-9 in the MAAC.

The Pioneers are easily double digits better than Rider as they proved in the first matchup and now they are home where they have a winning record.

Sacred Heart is averaging 78.8 points per game. That's 13 points more per game than what Rider averages. The Broncos have one of the worst offenses in the country ranking 359th in scoring, 350th in points per possession, 360th in field goal percentage and 365th in 3-point shooting.

Rider is almost as bad on defense giving up an average of 79.5 points a game, which ranks 289th. The Broncos are 345th in 3-point defense. Sacred Heart ranks 53rd in 3-point shooting accuracy and attempts the seventh most 3-pointers in the country in home games. 

Despite an 80-73 loss to Villanova in their last game, the Hoyas have been playing much better. They had won and covered their previous four games, including upsetting Butler and Providence on the road.

Connecticut has been an overrated point spread team the entire season and nothing changes here. The Huskies are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They are an inflated favorite again in this matchup. 

Princeton is trying to win its fourth Ivy League title in the past five seasons. The Tigers have their revenge game of the season hosting Cornell.

Cornell embarrassed Princeton, 87-64, at home two weeks ago. Princeton followed that loss by upsetting Colombia on the road, 80-68, as 5 1/2-point underdogs. Columbia has a better record than Cornell.

Despite that earlier loss to Cornell, the Tigers have dominated the Big Red under coach Mitch Henderson winning 24 of the past 26 meetings.

Defense is the difference here. Princeton ranks 167th defensively giving up 74.9 points a game. The Tigers rank 48th in 3-point defense.

Cornell ranks 360th defensively giving up 89.4 points a game. The Big Red are 352nd in defensive field goal percentage and 364th in 3-point defense. They are one of the worst defensive teams in the nation. 

The All-Star break can't come soon enough for Dallas. The Mavericks have lost eight in a row going 2-6 ATS in those eight games. Dallas is just 5-17 on the road and playing its third consecutive away game.

This is a golden opportunity for the Lakers to go into All-Star break with a much-needed victory. Luka Doncic  will miss his fourth game due to a left hamstring strain. But LeBron James and Austin Reaves are back for LA.

Meanwhile, Cooper Flagg is out for Dallas. The rookie is the heart and soul of the Mavericks. His absence hurts Dallas more than the Lakers not having Doncic.

The Mavericks have the fourth lowest offensive rating in the NBA. Their defense has been terrible, too, lately giving up an average of 131 points during the last three games. 

The Bucks enter this matchup rested, their confidence up riding a three-game win streak - longest of the season - and the good feeling that the team is serious about winning this season having not traded Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Antetokounmpo remains sidelined. But the Magic are not expected to have Franz Wagner, their leading scorer at 22.2 points a game. He has an ankle injury. 

Milwaukee's victories during its win streak were all at home against the Bulls, Pelicans, and Pacers. None of those teams are any good. However, the Bucks covered each game while compiling the second-highest offensive rating in the league during these past three games.

So, yes, this is a step-up game for Milwaukee. But it is not one that the Bucks should be double-digit underdogs. Orlando is 27-24. Its defense has slipped from second last season down to a middling 15th. The Bucks rank just one spot below Orlando defensively giving up an average of 116.7 points a game. That is one point below what the Magic allow per game.

Milwaukee has a rest advantage having played last Friday, while Orlando was in action two days ago.

The Bucks have a very underrated backcourt of Ryan Rollins and Kevin Porter Jr. They can help Milwaukee stay within single digits. 

Monday Free Play

Kings plus 8 at Pelicans 

It was the upset of the season. Host Portland defeated Gonzaga, 87-80, as a 22 1/2-point underdog this past Wednesday.

Unfortunately for the Pilots they have to play again. That game comes today against Seattle.

It's a monster letdown spot for Portland. The Pilots can't be blamed if they are still in celebration mode.

Before stunning Gonzaga, the Pilots had lost three in a row getting blown out in the previous two games by Washington State and Pacific.

The reality is Portland is 11-14 and in ninth place in the West Coast Conference. The Pilots give up nearly 80 points a game. They rank 315th in 3-point defense and 338th in 3-point offense.

Seattle is 15-9 and ahead of the Pilots in the WCC standings. The Redhawks play much better defense than Portland giving up an average of 67.9 points a game, which ranks 34th. They also are a better 3-point shooting team and defend against the 3-pointer much better than Portland.

No chance Seattle takes Portland lightly either after what the Pilots did to Gonzaga.

Kudos to Belmont for leading the Missouri Valley Conference. But I see the Bruins getting tripped up by Illinois-Chicago on the road here. 

UIC just had its eight-game win streak halted by Murray State on the road, 81-74, this past Tuesday. But the Flames are tough at home where they are 7-3 and averaging 78 points a game. That's three points up from their season average. 

The Flames have held their last four home opponents - all MVC teams - to an average of 61.7 points a game. 

UIC is worth backing as a home 'dog in this range. 

Not only do the Warriors have revenge for a last second, 99-98, loss suffered to the 76ers earlier this season, but they are in a dream scheduling spot.

The 76ers are playing for the sixth time in eight days, third in four days and without rest after beating the Clippers, 128-113, last night.

The Warriors, by contrast, have been idle since Friday. Golden State is 7-3 in its last 10 home games with its three losses suffered during this time frame at home all coming to superior teams to the 76ers.

Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler and Jonathan Kuminga are out for Golden State. But the Warriors own a deep bench and are expected to have Moses Moody. The 76ers won't have suspended Paul George and likely won't have Joel Embiid, who played last night and logged more than 32 minutes. Embiid hasn't played in consecutive games all season.

The Clippers have been sizzling since Dec. 18 going 16-3. This is a game they have been pointing to for more than two months and the spot lays out well for them.

LA was playing terrible when it met the Nuggets for the first time this season back on Nov. 12. The Clippers lost at home to the Nuggets in embarrassing fashion, 130-116. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in that game.

Oh, yes, the Clippers also have revenge from the Nuggets taking them out in seven games in the playoffs last season.

Leonard is averaging a career-high 27.9 points per game. He has scored at least 20 points in 25 straight games.

LA has had two full days to rest and game plan for this matchup. Leonard is expected to play. Denver is playing without rest after getting past the Nets, 107-103, last night. It also is the Nuggets' third game in four days.

The Nuggets are playing without four starters – Nikola Jokic (left knee), Cameron Johnson (right knee), Christian Braun (left ankle) and Aaron Gordon (right hamstring). Jamal Murray played 33 minutes against the Nets last night.

There is a chance Jokic could make his first appearance since hurting his knee on Dec. 29. But his minutes likely would be reduced and he probably would be rusty. 

This is the Clippers' night to shine and they will have the motivation to do just that against a tired and crippled Nuggets team. 

LaSalle is off an upset victory against Dayton last Wednesday. Now the rested Explorers are stepping down in Atlantic 10 Conference class meeting Fordham, which is 1-6 in its last seven games.

The Rams are a terrible offensive team. They rank 314th in scoring, 354th in 3-point shooting and 313th in free throw accuracy.

Fordham relies on an outstanding defense. However, that defense hasn't been very good recently. Fordham is giving up an average of 74.5 points a game during its last six games, which is nine points above its season defensive average.

Points are going to be at a premium with a total this low as both teams are heavily defensive oriented and play at an extremely slow pace.

This is ESPN’s first “Big Monday” of the college basketball season. The network sure picked a good game with top-ranked and unbeaten Arizona at No. 13 BYU.

I predict that by the end of this game the Wildcats will no longer be undefeated.

I base this on a tough scheduling spot for the Wildcats, an electric home crowd for BYU and Arizona's soft Big 12 schedule so far.

BYU is the first KenPom top 40 team the Wildcats have played in conference. Arizona is coming off victories against Cincinnati this past Wednesday and West Virginia this past Saturday. So this is the Wildcats' third game in six days.

The Cougars, by contrast, will be playing for only the second time since Jan. 17. They were home in their last game against Utah this past Saturday.

Arizona's lack of 3-point shooting could prove pivotal. The Wildcats take the fewest 3-pointers in the Big 12 and rank 10th in the league in 3-point accuracy. BYU shoots 40 percent of its field goals from beyond the arc.

Look for Ohio to hang in at home against 15-4 Akron in this Mid-American Conference matchup. The Bobcats can't match Akron's explosive offense, but they are a respectable 11-9 and 5-3 in the MAC.

The Zips are just a mediocre defensive team. Ohio averages 78.2 points a game and ranks 63rd in field goal percentage. The Bobcats' scoring average climbs to 82.6 points if you go by their last five games.

Akron is playing its second consecutive road game after beating Buffalo three days ago. Ohio is 8-3 at home. The Bobcats are not going to lack motivation playing at home on a Friday night and on national television with the game being shown on ESPNU.

The Bobcats have two of the better players in the MAC in Jackson Paveletzke and Aidan Hadaway.

Ohio upset Akron at home last season, 84-67. 

The Pistons are laying big points on the road here in an obvious letdown situation. Detroit just defeated Boston, its closest challenger in the Eastern Conference, by one point at home on national television this past Sunday.

Now the Pistons have to go on the road for the first time since Jan. 4 to play the 10-35 Pelicans before returning back home for two games. I don't see the Pistons having their full concentration and motivation against the Pelicans.

New Orleans has a rest advantage having last played on Saturday. The Pelicans should be up for this game as former Pistons executives Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver are now with New Orleans.

Detroit is just 6-9 ATS as a road favorite. New Orleans has a winning point spread record and has covered eight of the last 10 times when getting more than eight points.

Indiana is a great team. I just don't believe the Hoosiers are a touchdown better than Miami.

The Hurricanes have not lost a game by more than six points all season. Their two losses were by six points in overtime on the road against SMU and back in mid-October to Louisville by three points.

This is just the fourth time Miami is an underdog this season. The Hurricanes won the other three times beating Notre Dame, Texas A&M and Ohio State.

Indiana gave up the second fewest points in the country. Miami surrendered the fourth fewest points.

I rate the Hurricanes as having the best combination of offensive and defensive lines. They have multiple pro prospects on both lines.

The Hurricanes can keep a clean pocket for Carson Beck and force Fernando Mendoza into mistakes.

Miami also has the most talented non-quarterback skill position player in wide receiver Malachi Toney.

Midnight strikes here for the Patriots. I base this opinion on Houston having more playoff experience, the superior defense and New England's weak schedule catching up to them.

Nothing against Drake Maye, who has been fantastic, but the Patriots' fattened their record against extremely weak competition. The Bills were the only playoff team they met during their last 13 regular season games.

The Chargers were the best defense the Patriots went up against all season. They held New England to 16 points last week. The Texans defense is better. It ranks in the top three in points per game allowed (17.4), yards per game allowed (277.2) and takeaways (29). Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson are the best edge pass rushing duo in the NFL. They combined for 27 sacks.

C.J. Stroud got better during the second half of the season, ranking 8th in expected points per play since Week 9. Stud wide receiver Nico Collins is out with a concussion. Houston is deep at wide receiver, though. 

This may not be Buffalo's best team during the past several seasons, but the Bills have their clearest path to the Super Bowl in the Josh Allen era with both Kansas City and Baltimore sidelined.

I don't see Denver getting the best of Buffalo. There is no comparison between Allen, a top three quarterback at worst, and Bo Nix. Neither team has stud receivers, but the Bills  hold a strong rushing edge.

Buffalo is the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL and also ranks first in pass defense.

Yet the Broncos are favored because they are home and are perceived to have the superior defense. The Bills have deep playoff experience, something the Broncos lack. Buffalo's run defense has improved. The Broncos fattened up their defensive numbers because of easy competition.

Neither team has very good defensive numbers on the season. But what the oddsmaker has overlooked in this America East Conference matchup is the improvement shown by UMass Lowell.

The River Hawks have won three in a row, holding these opponents to a combined average of 67.3 points a game. They are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.

NJIT averages 66 points, which ranks 355th in the nation. The Highlanders shoot 38.3 percent from the field, which ranks 363rd. They also are a well below average defensive rebounding team.

Lowell has the best offensive efficiency in the conference. The River Hawks average 81.6 points a game, which is 15 points more than what the Highlanders average a game. They also are the superior rebounding team.

I certainly respect Mike Vrabel and Drake Maye for leading the Patriots to a 14-3 record. But I don't trust inexperienced playoff teams as chalk, especially when they played a soft schedule as New England did.

The Chargers have playoff experience, the better defense and Justin Herbert is as good as Maye. The team that has a quarterback with playoff experience versus an opponent with a quarterback making his postseason debut has covered 66% of the time during the past 60 instances.

New England played only three games vs. teams that made the playoffs with winning records, splitting with AFC East rival Buffalo and losing to Pittsburgh.

Los Angeles gave up the fifth fewest yards and ninth fewest points. They also had the fourth-most takeaways. Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter is highly regarded.

The Patriots have good defensive statistics, too, but I find them skewed because of the schedule. New England fattened its numbers against the Raiders, Jets twice, Titans, Browns, Giants and Dolphins the last week of the regular season when Quinn Ewers was their quarterback.

The Chargers' biggest weakness is their offensive line. However, the Patriots' pass rush is below average. New England tied for 21st in sacks. 

Trinidad Chambliss has helped take Mississippi on an exciting ride. But Chambliss and the Rebels haven't faced a pass rush as deadly as the Hurricanes. It's not just Miami's defensive line why I like the Hurricanes. They hold an edge on the offensive line, too, and are in a better situational spot.

Mississippi has one less day of rest and preparation for this Fiesta Bowl having played on New Year's Day in a tough game against Georgia. Miami defeated Ohio State on New Year's Eve.

Lane Kiffin's departure really could have an effect in this matchup. Mississippi is down to a skeleton coaching staff. I'm not sure the Rebels will be as fully prepared as they need to be for this opponent.

The Hurricanes averaged six sacks against Texas A&M and Ohio State in their two playoff games. Pass rusher Rueben Bain could be a first-round draft choice if he comes out. Miami's offensive tackle, Francis Mauigoa, is a likely first rounder, too.

Miami's quarterback Carson Beck isn't as fancy as Chambliss. But he's a steady force and does what is necessary for the Hurricanes to win.

I am looking for a strong bounce back from Oklahoma State after the Cowboys suffered an embarrassing, 102-80, road loss to Texas Tech this past Saturday. The Cowboys were 12-1 entering that game. They are 10-0 at home, including an early season win against Texas A&M.

Central Florida is 12-1, enjoying a strong season, too. But it is going to be tough for the Knights to get up for this game after their 81-75 home upset win against Kansas in their Big 12 opener this past Saturday.

Oklahoma State coach Steve Lutz called out his team for its poor defensive showing against Texas Tech. The Cowboys have better defensive numbers than Central Florida and the spot is ripe for them to get a convincing win.

A hot Joe Burrow at home versus rookie QB Shedeur Sanders and a banged-up, disinterested Brown's team is worth more than a touchdown. So I don't mind laying this number with Cincinnati.

It has been a frustrating season for the Bengals. Burrow has taken out that frustration on his last two opponents. He's gone a combined 49-of-63 passing (78%) for 614 yards (9.7 YPA) with a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio against the Cardinals and Dolphins. Cincinnati won and covered those two games by a combined margin of 82-35.

The rudderless Browns are likely playing for the last time under probably soon-to-be-departed coach Kevin Stefanski. I don't see Cleveland having much incentive following a satisfying home finale win over the Steelers last week.

The Browns' major interest is hoping Myles Garrett sets the sack record.

Sanders needs a lot of weapons around him. He won't have that. Top running back Quinshon Judkins is out with a broken leg. Sanders is most comfortable throwing to his two good tight ends, Harold Fannin Jr. (groin) and David Njoku. Both are out, too.

The Bengals' defense has improved because they have forced 11 takeaways the last six games, tied for third most in the NFL during that span. Sanders has thrown seven interceptions the past three games.

The good thing about backing Navy in a bowl game, such as today's Liberty Bowl, is you don't have to worry about opt-outs. You also can exploit a defense that can't stop the run. Cincinnati ranks 98th in run defense. The Bearcats also were last in the country in takeaways with only two.

Navy is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country by a wide margin. QB Blake Horvath accounted for 25 touchdowns. Cincinnati, on the other hand, will not have its starting quarterback as Brendan Sorsby has opted-out. It's a huge loss for the Bearcats.

Cincinnati figures to be rusty and unmotivated having last played way back on Nov. 29. The Midshipmen, who beat Army on Dec. 13, won't have those issues.

USC is better than TCU on both sides of the ball with a top 12 offense and top 40 defense. The Horned Frogs were an inconsistent Big 12 team and this is reflected in their numbers - 42nd in scoring and 71st in points allowed.

But like any bowl game in this modern era of mercenary college football, opt-outs have to be factored.

The Trojans had the more opt-outs with the top losses being their two best wide receivers. TCU, however, won't have its star quarterback, Josh Hoover. He threw for 3,472 yards with 29 touchdowns this season. USC retained its star quarterback, Jayden Maiava.

USC also has better depth than TCU. The Trojans can withstand their opt-outs. TCU can't stay within a touchdown without Hoover. 

I also give the Trojans a coaching edge with Lincoln Riley. The Trojans have won and covered each of their last two bowl games the past two seasons under Riley. 

The Bears turnaround to an 11-4 record is one of the most remarkable stories in the NFL this season. But you know what? The 49ers also are 11-4. They trail the Seahawks by one game in the NFC West.

Chicago clinched the NFC North when the Packers lost to the Ravens Saturday night. That takes the pressure off the Bears and could mean a less intense performance from them even though playoff seating is at stake.

The Bears have pulled out six wins this season in games where they trailed in the final two minutes of regulation, setting a record for the most late-game comebacks in NFL history. Chicago leads the NFL with 31 takeaways and 21 interceptions.

Note, though, the Bears are 2-4 when they create one or no turnovers.

San Francisco is clicking offensively. The 49ers are averaging 34.4 points in their last five games, all double-digit victories. The 49ers have not punted during their last 22 possessions and their defense has generated nine takeaways in their last five games. The Bears are giving up 6.6 yards per play on the road, which is the worst in the NFL. 

The heavily banged-up Packers caught a monster break this past Thursday with the Lions getting upset by the Vikings. That Detroit loss puts the Packers in the playoffs and takes the pressure off them.

Baltimore does not have that luxury. The Ravens are in must-win mode knowing a loss eliminates them.

So a huge motivational edge to the Ravens. Baltimore is the far healthier team, too, which also means a lot.

It is not just Jordan Love being out for Green Bay. The Packers have several offensive linemen who are questionable and their most versatile offensive lineman, Elgton Jenkins, is on the injured list along with their best run stuffer, Devonte Wyatt, and superstar pass rusher Micah Parsons.

The loss of Wyatt could prove the most significant. Both teams are down to backup quarterbacks, Tyler Huntley and Malik Willis. Neither is much of a downfield threat. The Ravens rank third in rushing and have Derrick Henry. The Packers are 15th in rushing and have Josh Jacobs, who is nursing a sore knee and can't compare to Henry.  

The Ravens have held seven of their last 10 opponents below 20 points. The Packers surrendered 34 points to a mediocre Denver offense two weeks ago.

It has been a distracting Christmas time for the Warriors courtesy of more Draymond Green nonsense. Green caused another stir by removing himself from the team in the middle of the Warriors' last game.

Maybe that incident has been forgotten, but I like the Mavericks getting this many points in this nationally televised matchup.

Anthony Davis and rookie Cooper Flagg are the Mavericks' two best players. Both are playing at high levels. Davis is averaging 26.3 points in his last six games. Flagg is averaging 25.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.1 steals during his last 11 games, living up to the high expectations of being the No. 1 overall player taken in the draft.

The Mavericks have met or exceeded their season average of 113 points a game in 11 of their last 12 games. This includes a huge confidence building, 131-130, win against the Nuggets this past Tuesday. 

The Rainbow Warriors have been stellar when playing at home this season going 6-1 SU and ATS with the lone loss coming by two points to Fresno State.

All together, the Warriors were 8-4 ATS, while Cal was 5-7 ATS.

Each team played Stanford and San Diego State. Hawaii beat both of those teams, each at home. The Warriors ended San Diego State’s six- game winning streak with a resounding, 38-6, victory.

The Golden Bears were blanked, 34-0, at San Diego State and lost, 31-10, at Stanford.

Hawaii has the better numbers on both sides of the ball and in scoring margin.

So the indications are clear that Hawaii is the superior team.

I get that the Kings are horrible, having lost nine of their last 10 games and being without their two best players, Domantas Sabonis and Zack Lavine.

But this line is inflated given the Rockets' situational spot.

Houston is coming off one of its most satisfying road wins of the season, snapping the Nuggets' six-game winning streak while getting revenge for a controversial, 128-125, overtime loss to the Nuggets this past Monday. Rockets coach Ime Udoka was fined $25,000 for publicly criticizing the officiating after that Monday loss.

Kevin Durant scored 31 points against Denver on Saturday. He also played 40 minutes. Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith each logged 38 minutes.

So not only are the Rockets in a monster letdown situation, but they carry a heavy fatigue rating in action for the third time in four days and twice within two days. The last time Houston played without rest was on Dec. 6 against the Mavericks in Dallas. The Rockets were 6.5-point favorites and lost, 122-109.

The Kings also played on Saturday and lost, 98-93, to the Trail Blazers at home. So the Kings don't have to do any traveling for this matchup. 

Sacramento is 3-3 ATS in its last six games and getting very good play from rookie Maxime Raynaud, who is filling in for Sabonis. 

The Lions are fighting hard for a playoff spot after losing on the road to the Rams last week. Under Dan Campbell, Detroit is 15-5 ATS following a loss, including 4-1 ATS this season. This is the Lions' final regular season home game.

This game is not as important to the Steelers as it is to the Lions. That's because Pittsburgh can still win the AFC North Division by defeating the Ravens in Week 18.

Detroit usually takes care of margins in its victories with all eight of its wins coming by 7 or more points. The Lions' average victory margin this season is 15.5 points a game. Pittsburgh has lost four of its six games by 10 or more points.

Jared Goff has a 29-to-five touchdown-to-interception ratio and will be helped by the Steelers missing their top pass rusher, injured T.J. Watt. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery should be able to gash a below average Pittsburgh defense that ranks 28th in yards allowed.

The Lions have some vulnerabilities in their secondary, but Pittsburgh isn't strong enough offensively to take advantage enough to cover this point spread.

The Knicks have won five in a row. They are desperate to hang a championship banner on the rafters at Madison Square Garden. They haven't done this in the NBA since 1973. If they can't win a title, they at least would like to capture this NBA Cup championship.

The Spurs won't lack motivation either, but they are coming off a huge emotional victory against the Thunder in the semifinals of the NBA Cup. San Antonio was a 10-point underdog in that game.

This will be just Victor Wembanyama's second game back from a 12-game absence. He has a minute's restriction.

The spread is low enough to back the Knicks, who average more points per game than San Antonio and have a better defense.

Duquesne has defeated just one winning team and that was Stony Brook. The Dukes are 2-7 ATS. They were crushed by Boise State, 86-64, as a 14-point road 'dog three days ago.

That bodes well for Nevada. The Wolf Pack have stepped up their game going 4-1 SU, 3-1-1 in their last five outings.

The Wolf Pack are hitting 42.7 percent of their 3-pointers during their last seven games. Duquesne ranks 279th in 3-point defense.

Nevada also is a much better free throw shooting team than the Dukes.

Indiana's overall record is 6-18. But that record is misleading.

The Pacers are playing their best basketball of the season. They are 4-2 in their last six games and have won two in a row beating the Bulls on the road and Kings at home by double digits each. Indiana is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games.

Indiana has exceeded its season scoring average of 111.3 in five of its last six games. The Pacers are averaging 118.7 points during their past four games. Philadelphia averages 116.9 points per game.

The 76ers have been without starter Kelly Oubre Jr. and role player Trendon Watford. Joel Embiid, of course, can never be counted on to play.

Along with improved offense, Indiana has picked up its defense. The Pacers are a top-10 defensive team going by the last 10 games. The Pacers can't match the 76ers in big name players, but they have a number of unsung players doing well. One of these is center Jay Huff, who  leads the league in blocks. 

North Texas is a false favorite. Tulane is the more balanced team, is home, has more title game experience and a much better defense than the Mean Green.

Tulane gives up fewer than 25 points a game and ranks 34th in run defense. North Texas' defense improved as the season progressed, but still ranks 124th in stopping the run. Green Wave dual threat QB Jake Retzlaff can take advantage of that. He threw 14 touchdown passes for Tulane this  season and set a school record for quarterback rushing touchdowns with 14.

Tulane is making its third straight American Conference Championship appearance. North Texas hasn't won a conference title since 2004, nor won a bowl game since 2013.

The Green Wave also played the tougher schedule. They went against three Power Four opponents in Northwestern, Duke, and Mississippi. North Texas played a much weaker non-conference schedule.

The Mean Green heavily rely on QB Drew Mastemaker, a redshirt freshman, who passed for 3,835 yards and 29 TDs. The weather conditions, though, could hurt North Texas' passing attack with rain expected during the evening.

The game is being played at Tulane's outdoor, on-campus Yulman Stadium. The rain is going to cause the field to be soggy and slow down the passing attacks. That is going to hurt North Texas more.

The Mavericks are going for their first three-game win streak of the season.

I don't see them getting it.

The Heat are 7-1 in their last eight games. Miami is 2-0 in its past two road games winning by 10 points against the 76ers and by 36 vs. the Bulls.

Dallas still could be on Cloud Nine after stunning the Nuggets in Denver with a SU victory as an 11-point  underdog two days ago. 

The Mavericks are banged-up in the front court. Both P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford are questionable with ankle injuries. 

New England is 10-2 and has won nine in a row, which is the longest active win streak in the NFL. The Giants are 2-10 and already eliminated from playoff contention.

Yet the gap between these teams is not as gargantuan as their records indicate.

Multiple key New England injuries, the return of Jaxson Dart from a concussion and the Patriots' unfamiliar position of having all the pressure on them while hosting their first Monday Night Football matchup in five years  make this matchup far more even than perceived.

The Patriots' injuries are not that well-known outside of New England because they are not to skill position players. But these injuries are very important. The Patriots will be breaking in two new offensive line starters on the left side with tackle Will Campbell and guard Jared Wilson out. Campbell probably is New England's best offensive lineman. They were both injured in New England's, 26-20, road victory against the Bengals last week.

The Pats didn't have good offensive line depth before the injuries. New England also has had trouble running the ball ranking 19th in rushing. The Patriots have heavily relied upon the arm and legs of Drake Maye. The Giants' defensive strength is their pass rush.

New England's defensive line also has been impacted by injuries. Standout tackle Milton Williams is out. Another key run-stuffer, Khyiris Tonga, is questionable as is linebacker Harold Landry, whose play has regressed because he's been playing hurt.

Another below-the-surface injury for the Patriots is special-teams ace Brenden Schooler, who is out  with an ankle injury.

Dart has provided the Giants with a spark. He is back from a concussion. Dart has accounted for 17 touchdowns in his seven starts with the Giants, who average slightly more than 24 points a game when he is under center.

The Giants played each of the three top teams in the NFC North tough during the last three weeks. They held fourth-quarter leads in each game before losing in overtime at Detroit, by seven points to the Packers and by four points to the Bears on the road.

The jury is out on interim coach Mike Kafka and his new elevated defensive coordinator, Charlie Bullen. But the early returns appear promising with the Giants seeming to play with more passion and better morale than they did under Brian Daboll.

There are some bad defenses in the NFL. Then there are the Cincinnati Bengals. They are in a league of their own when it comes to horrendous tackling and giving up points and yards. The Bengals are second-to-last in run defense and facing Derrick Henry.

And run defense is the Bengals' best defensive category! Cincinnati gives up the most points, yards, yards per play, passing yards and passing touchdowns in the league. It is why they are 1-8 in their last nine games.

This is a get-right spot for Lamar Jackson if ever there was one.

It is a pipe dream to think Joe Burrow, who has a history of starting slow, is magically going to keep the Bengals within a touchdown of Baltimore after being out for two and a half months with a toe injury. Not having No. 2 wideout Tee Higgins certainly doesn't help the Bengals' cause.

The Ravens have all the momentum winning five in a row to go from 1-5 to 6-5. Baltimore's defense has stepped up holding each of its last six opponents below 20 points. The Ravens' average winning margin during their five-game winning streak is 12.8 points a game.

Kudos to the Kings, who in the last four days have pulled off stunning straight-up victories as double-digit underdogs against the Nuggets on the road and Timberwolves at home in overtime.

Previous to that, however, Sacramento had lost eight consecutive games going 1-7 ATS. I don't see the Kings pulling a third straight upset victory hosting the Suns. Even with those upset wins, the Kings are just 5-13.

Sacramento is not going to have Domantas Sabonis, who is sidelined with a knee injury. Sabonis is Sacramento's best player. He leads the team in rebounding and is third in scoring.

The Kings also could be minus guard Dennis Schroder, who during the past six games is averaging 14.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 6.0 assists. Schroder is dealing with a hip injury.

Phoenix is in an angry mood after a disappointing, 114-92, home loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Suns had  won eight of nine before that defeat. Devin Booker draws all the attention for Phoenix with his 26.4 point scoring average, but quietly newcomer Dillon Brooks has been huge for the Suns. Brooks is averaging 22.0 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.9 steals.

Booker and Brooks should have big games against a Sacramento defense that ranks 27th in scoring defense and 27th in defensive field goal percentage.

It would not be surprising if Miami rested some of its rotation players. The Heat raced to a, 127-117, victory against the 76ers on Sunday. The Heat had four players log more than 30 minutes against the 76ers.

Not only are the Heat playing without rest, but this marks their fifth game in eight days. The Heat need all of their energy because they are playing at a much faster pace than in previous seasons.

The Mavericks are a disappointing 5-13. But they've only lost by more than nine points once in their last eight games. Dallas has had several close losses during the span, losing to the Knicks by two points, Clippers in overtime and Bucks by two points.

Cooper Flagg has started to play better for the Mavericks and Dallas could get back its best player, Anthony Davis.

There has become a class difference between these two teams. BYU's only loss this season came to Texas Tech. No shame in that as the Red Raiders are ranked sixth in the country and have met, if not succeeded, lofty preseason expectations.

Cincinnati has been exposed in its last two games losing, 30-24, at home to Arizona and getting crushed at Utah, 45-14, by the Utes.

BYU gives up the 14th-fewest points at 17.8 and ranks 24th in total defense. Cincinnati ranks 123rd in yards allowed per game and has only two takeaways.

Cincinnati can't match BYU's defense, nor the Cougars balanced offensive attack. 

Lafayette and Stonehill are a combined 2-9. They each have won one game. But I'm getting involved in the game because I don't see Lafayette justified as a road favorite.

Stonehill has won four consecutive games at home going back to last season. The Skyhawks' lone  home game this season was a 100-48 romp against non-board team Thomas College.

Lafayette struggles on the road and on the glass. The Leopards are 328th in offensive rebounding and rank 282nd in defensive rebounding. Stonehill is consistent on both ends of the glass ranking 162nd in offensive rebounding and 163rd in defensive rebounding.

The Leopards also have trouble scoring, ranking 324th in points per game and 356th in points per possession.

The Mavericks' terrible decision to trade Luka Doncic last season is still reverberating. Dallas GM Nico Harrison recently got fired because of that and the 4-11 Mavericks are off to their worst 15-game start since the 2017-18 season.

Dallas is 2-8 in its last 10 games. Anthony Davis is injured, of course, and won't play. An illness has hit the team where Cooper Flagg and Caleb Martin may not play leaving the Mavericks even more shorthanded.

The Knicks are 6-2 during their last eight games, but off a two-point road loss to the Heat two days ago. So New York won't lack motivation or focus.

Not only is there a class difference here, but the Mavericks are potentially very short-handed. 

Points are going to matter in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring game. So I'm happy to take them with the home underdog in a battle between two good defenses and two weak offenses played in 30-some degree weather with a chance of rain.

Western Michigan averages 21.8 PPG. The Broncos have surpassed 24 points only twice.

Northern Illinois can run the ball effectively and it ranks in the top-50 defensively in scoring defense and total yards. The Huskies held San Diego State to six points at home earlier this season. That's nearly 20 points below the Aztecs' season average.

The Huskies just bashed the FBS’s worst team in UMass, 45-3, on the road last week. A significant takeaway from that game was NIU giving quarterback Jalen Macon his first FBS start. Macon played well accounting for four touchdowns while displaying excellent mobility. 

No need to overthink this one. Dallas is the superior team and the Raiders have very little home field advantage.

The Raiders' offensive line is broken and so is their beat up quarterback, Geno Smith. Minus injured left tackle Kolton Miller and right guard Jackson Powers-Johnson and Las Vegas has the worst offensive line in the league. It is a big reason why the Raiders entered this week scoring the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 15.4.

The Cowboys' defense has been bad so far, but it was greatly upgraded during their bye last week. Dallas added Quinnen Williams, one of the best run stuffers in the NFL, from the Jets and linebacker Logan Wilson, who may have been the Bengals' second-best defensive player until falling out of favor with Cincinnati management. The Cowboys are further reinforced with the return of DeMarvion Overshown from injury.

The Raiders are surrendering more than 24 points per game. They're not going to be able to keep up with the Cowboys' top-five offense.

I'm also expecting the Cowboys to play an emotional, intense game following the death of one of their players, Marshawn Kneeland.

We are getting a nice discount on the Vikings because the record shows Chicago to be 6-3 and Minnesota 4-5.

The Vikings, though, are better than their record while the Bears are much worse than their record.

Chicago is off improbable back-to-back comeback victories against the Giants and Bengals. The Bears also own a pair of one-point victories against the Commanders and Raiders. The combined record of those two teams is 5-14.

The Bears have been outscored on the season.

I don't like slow-processing Caleb Williams in this tough road venue facing Brian Flores' blitz-happy Vikings. I'm not a huge fan of J.J. McCarthy, but I do believe he will play better and have an easier time than he did last week against the Ravens' savvy defense.

I give the Vikings' offensive line a huge check mark against the Bears defensive line.

Look for the Vikings to dominate the trenches and win this game with room to spare. 

The oddsmaker has Kennesaw State as a road favorite against Jacksonville State in this Conference USA showdown.

I don't buy that. I like the combination of the Gamecocks' running back Cam Cook and quarterback Caden Creel operating behind a physical offensive line. Jacksonville State ranks fourth in the nation in rushing at 261.1 yards per game. The Gamecocks are also 51st in run defense.

Kennesaw State can't match that. The Owls rank 60th in rushing and 75th in run defense. They run better than they pass. Their defense has managed only five takeaways.

Jacksonville State wins the trenches - and the game. 

Ohio is the slightest of favorites against Western Michigan. But the Bobcat should not be a road favorite at all.

Western Michigan not only is home, but has the superior defense. Only 11 teams in the country give up fewer yards per game than the Broncos. Western Michigan also ranks 19th in scoring defense, holding foes to 19 points a game. The Broncos have the second-best defense in the MAC.

Ohio, by contrast, gives up 5 more points per game than Western Michigan and ranks 76th in run defense and 73rd in pass defense.

Western Michigan is 5-1 in i's last six games. One of those wins was, 14-13, at home against Toledo as a 13 1/2-point underdog. The Broncos held the Rockets to nearly 20 points below their season average.

It's a good spot, too, for Western Michigan. The Broncos last played on November 1st and they don't have to travel for a short-week Tuesday game like Ohio does here.

The last time Utah played was this past Friday at Minnesota. The Timberwolves buried the Jazz, 137-97. That was the most points Utah has surrendered all season.

Now it's the Jazz's turn to host the Timberwolves and the timing is good for Utah to get revenge.

Minnesota is playing for the third time in four days and without rest after downing the Kings, 144-117, in Sacramento on Sunday night.

The Jazz hold a winning spread record as they often are underpriced. That's the case in this matchup. 

Never thought I would be saying this season, but the Patriots are actually in a letdown spot having won six in a row.

Drake Maye has emerged as a star. But the Patriots have played an extremely easy schedule. New England's last four victories have come against the Falcons, Browns, Titans and Saints. The combined record of those four teams is 7-27. The Bills are the only good opponent the Patriots have faced.

Maye has been carrying an offense with a below average rushing attack. The Buccaneers rank 7th against the run. Tampa Bay has had two weeks to prepare for Maye having been idle last week.

I don't see  Maye being able to successfully trade points against Baker Mayfield. 

If it weren't for an overtime loss to eighth-ranked BYU, Arizona would be 5-0 at home this season. The Wildcats are holding foes to an average of 12.5 points in regulation during their five home games.

Kansas' defense has fallen apart. The Jayhawks are yielding 32.4 points in their last five games. Kansas has trouble stopping the run and its cornerbacks are vulnerable to Arizona QB Noah Fifita, who has accounted for 24 touchdowns and just four interceptions.

The Jayhawks' offense also has regressed. Kansas was averaging 20.3 points per game in its last three games until producing 38 points against hapless 1-8 Oklahoma State. A cluster injury problem at tight end has hurt Kansas' offense.

At this point of the season, Arizona is at least a touchdown better then Kansas especially going by its track record at home.

Given a healthy Davis Alexander at quarterback and a better balanced lineup, I believe Montreal is the best team in the CFL. Look for the Alouettes to prove that here against Hamilton.

Montreal's offense looked great in a 42-33 Eastern Conference semifinal victory against Winnipeg. Alexander had a big game as did running back Stevie Scott III, who rushed for 136 yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries.

Hamilton's run defense was the worst in the CFL this season, allowing more than 110 yards rushing per game.  

Tiger-Cats QB Bo Levi Mitchell had a big season. But Mitchell doesn't have a run game to fall back on like Alexander does.

Montreal also has the superior defense. The Alouettes allowed the fewest yards per game in the CFL. 

The Spurs return home following a two-game West Coast trip where they lost to the Suns and Lakers, failing to cover in either game.

Awaiting the Spurs are the 5-2 Rockets. Houston went 52-30 last season and is better this year with the addition of Kevin Durant. The Rockets are rolling right now, winning five in a row with four coming by blowouts.

Houston is a much better team than San Antonio. The Spurs are going through growing pains. San Antonio superstar center Victor Wembanyama didn't play that well during the West Coast trip. Houston's Ime Udoka is one of the better coaches in the NBA. He has the pieces to defend against Wembanyama.

The Rockets are loaded with Durant, Amen Thompson, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. They are much stronger than the Spurs, so laying this short road price is a bargain.

Dallas is averaging 30.8 points per game, second-best in the NFL. The Cowboys have arguably the best wide receiver tandem in the league with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens. They have the best kicker in the league by far with Brandon Aubrey and their pass rush is still solid even without Micah Parsons.

But somehow the Cowboys are only a field goal favorite at home against the Cardinals, who have lost five in a row. That's what misplaced love for Jacoby Brissett can cause.

The record needs to be set straight. The Cardinals are not as good, I repeat not as good, with Brissett at quarterback instead of injured Kyler Murray.

Brissett is a journeyman, pocket passer who wasn't good enough to start for the Patriots, Colts, Dolphins, Commanders and now Arizona. The Cardinals are below average in all major offensive categories. They also are 1-17 in their last 18 games without Murray!

Arizona's defense ranks among the bottom-12 in yards allowed. passing yards and takeaways. Cardinals cornerbacks Will Johnson and Max Melton are not going to get the better of Lamb and Pickens.

No Murray, no Cardinals cover.

You won't find a better buy-low spot on the Falcons than right here. Atlanta is off a 24-point home loss to the Dolphins, who just looked terrible against the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. New England has won five in a row.

I find the Falcons to be the superior team, though. The only above average team the Patriots have beaten during their win streak was Buffalo. Their other victories came against the Browns, Titans, Saints and Panthers. Those four teams have a combined record of 8-24.

Atlanta also has defeated Buffalo. The Falcons have victories against the Commanders and  Vikings on the road, too. They were without Michael Penix and Drake London in their loss to the Dolphins and strangely only gave Bijan Robinson nine carries and three passing targets. Now  Penix and London are healthy and even an idiot like Raheem Morris can figure out that Robinson needs to be more heavily involved since he could be the best all-purpose back in the NFL.

The Falcons have won straight-up the past two times they've been underdogs.

Drake Maye has been carrying a pedestrian Patriots offense. Atlanta is much improved defensively and New England will be without its best running back, Rhamondre Stevenson.

The Patriots already have lost to the Steelers and Raiders at home this season. They are 4-13 in their last 17 home games.