| Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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| 08-18-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12 | Top | 122-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
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Now it's time for the Bucks to get serious. The Raptors and Celtics, their main competitors for the Eastern Conference crown, each won their opening playoff games on Monday. Both covered the spread, too. A combination of urgency, Orlando injuries and the Magic's poor history of stepping up versus strong competition bodes well for the Bucks covering even as double-digit favorites. The Magic are 3-12 ATS the last 15 times going against above .500 opponents. The Bucks owned the Magic this season going 4-0 with a winning average margin of 17 points. The Bucks not only led the NBA in points per game at 118.7, but also gave up the fewest points in the paint. The formula to beat the Bucks is to be hot from 3-point range and be able to control Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Magic rank 25th in 3-point accuracy and lack a defensive stopper to deal with Antetokounmpo. Aaron Gordon is best suited to guard Antetokounmpo. Gordon, however, is doubtful due to a hamstring injury. Even if he plays, he won't be 100 percent. Not ideal when taking on arguably the NBA's best player. Gordon isn't the only player hurt for Orlando. Jonathan Isaac is out as is backup point guard Michael Carter-Williams. Both are strong defenders. The Magic are likely to fall behind and they lack the necessary firepower to get back into the game. This hurts them, too, if things turn into a fourth quarter garbage affair because the Bucks have an excellent bench. So I doubt Orlando's back-door capability.
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| 08-17-20 | 76ers v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 101-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
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The feeling here is the Celtics have been laying in the weeds. They are going to be dangerous in these playoffs and are a much better team than the 76ers especially with Philly missing injured Ben Simmons and with Joel Embiid once again not 100 percent. Boston is 22-14 away from home. Philadelphia is 12-26. But the 76ers' problems don't end there. The Celtics own edges at four of the five starting spots with Simmons out. Philly's lone matchup edge is Embiid against Boston's lunch-pail centers Daniel Theis and Robert Williams. Embiid suffered a bruised hand last Wednesday, too. So he might be hampered. The Celtics are loaded with athletic wing players. Simmons was the 76ers' best defensive player. Boston can set up mismatches all across the court and savvy coach Brad Stevens knows how to do that especially given extra time. The 76ers can't counter a playmaker like Kemba Walker, nor do they have the scorers to match Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Gordon Haywood. The 76ers didn't have enough time in the bubble to build the on-court chemistry needed to beat a high caliber opponent with their new starting lineup of Tobias Harris, Al Horford, Embiid, Josh Richardson and Shake Milton. Those five had limited minutes together during three of their last four seeding games. It doesn't bode well for the 76ers that they surrendered 53 points to T.J. Warren and 51 to Damian Lillard during the seeding games.
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| 08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
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Lance Lynn isn't pitching this game for Texas. That's a buy sign on Colorado especially with German Marquez taking the mound. Marquez tamed the Rangers when he faced them opening day limiting Texas to one run on two hits in 5 2/3 innings. But Lynn beat the Rockies that day, 1-0. Lynn also defeated the Rockies, 3-2 on Friday. Marquez has been solid all season not giving up more than two earned runs during any of his four starts. He has a 2.08 ERA and knows how to pitch at Coors Field. The same can't be said for Kyle Gibson, who is scheduled to make the start here for Texas. Gibson is 4-11 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.59 WHIP in 20 career interleague starts. This horrible mark doesn't include any games at Coors Fields either. This is the first time Gibson will pitch at the best hitting park in the majors. Gibson surrendered four runs on nine hits in 4 1/3 innings against the Mariners during his last start five days ago. The Mariners rank 26th in scoring averaging fewer than four runs per game. The Rockies lead the majors in runs scored at 5.5. They also are No. 1 in batting average. So Gibson is stepping way up in class. The Rangers by the way, rank 28th in runs at 3.6. The Rockies are 9-4 during their last 13 home games while the Rangers are 3-9 in their past 12 road contests.
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| 08-08-20 | Orioles v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
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The world champion Nationals were embarrassed, 11-0, by the lowly Orioles on Friday in the first game of this rivalry interleague series. Look for the Nationals to get their revenge today. Not only were the Nationals humiliated at home, but there is a strong sense of urgency. That loss dropped the Nationals to 4-6. The regular season is just 60 games. Baltimore is 32-82 in its next game following a victory. The Nationals are finally at full strength and have the superior starting pitcher going in a matchup of Thomas Eshelman versus Austin Voth. Eshelman is a fill-in for John Means. So this could turn into a bullpen game for the Orioles. Voth had tremendous success in his previous start against the Orioles. That came last July when he beat them, 8-1, giving up one run on four hits and one walk in six innings.
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| 08-03-20 | Phillies v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
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Yankees minus 1 1/2 runs minus $1.55 (run line) hosting Phillies Coming off eight days of being idle due to Coronavirus concerns, the Phillies are back in action against the best pitcher in the American League if not all of baseball - Gerrit Cole. Good luck with that. This is a huge mismatch and it's priced accurately that way. But the juice can be reduced to a more manageable level by backing the Yankees on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs. The Yankees are in the argument for best team in baseball opening 7-1. The Phillies appear way down this season. They've played only three games going 1-2. The three starting pitchers the Phillies have drawn are Sanday Alcantara, Caleb Smith and Robert Dugger. Now their rusty bats have to go against the dominant righty Cole. Philadelphia is 1-8 the last nine times it has faced a righty starter. The Phillies are starting Jake Arrieta, who is on the downside of his career and coming back from an elbow injury. . The Yankees have won six in a row. Cole is riding a career-best 18-game win streak. He hasn't lost in his last 24 starts. New York has been dominant as a home favorite winning 45 of the last 57 times in that role for 79 percent. All of the Yankees' victories except one this season have been by more than one run. |
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| 08-02-20 | Mavs -5.5 v. Suns | Top | 115-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
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The Mavericks are several tiers above the Suns. They are a tremendous scoring team and are a bit below-the-radar even though they are 40-28. Dallas has lost by four or fewer points in six of its last eight defeats. Dallas still is steaming from its last game, a 153-149 overtime loss to the Rockets two days ago. The Mavericks blew a 3-point lead with three seconds left in regulation. Dallas is 20-7-1 ATS following a loss. The Mavericks now step way down in class. The Suns were only invited to Orlando to fill out the number of teams. On top of this, Phoenix is a bit fat and happy after opening the rebooted season with a 125-112 victory against the Wizards, who are the worst team in the reboot. The Suns lack the Mavericks' depth especially with Kelly Oubre Jr. and Aron Baynes both out. Phoenix is 6-13 ATS in its last 19 games.
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| 08-01-20 | 76ers v. Pacers +5.5 | Top | 121-127 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
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Talent-wise, the 76ers do hold an edge on the Pacers especially with Indiana missing emerging star Domantas Sabonis. He's out due to plantar fasciitis in his left foot. But there other factors that point to this being a very close game. Each team is 39-26. So it's an important matchup for playoff seeding. A loss wouldn't be devastating for the 76ers, though, because they drew a very easy schedule in this reboot of the season. Philadelphia's next four games following this one are against the Wizards, Magic, Trail Blazers and Suns. None of those teams has a winning record. The 76ers were practically unbeatable at home. But away from Wells Fargo Center, Philly went just 10-24. There are many questions for the 76ers such as: Can they be trusted as mid-sized neutral site chalk against a solid playoff team like the Pacers? Is Shake Milton a reliable point guard? Can Ben Simmons make the transition to power forward and be as effective without handling the ball so much? Is Joel Embiid fully healthy after missing the 76ers' last two scrimmages with a strained right calf? The Pacers have solid depth and Victor Oladipo is expected to play. He was just rounding into his All-Star form when league play was halted. |
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| 07-31-20 | Kings v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 120-129 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
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The Spurs are in serious danger of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1997. This is a must-win spot for them. Sacramento needs to win, too, to keep its outside chances alive. San Antonio is 27-36. Sacramento is 28-36. The Spurs' best big man, seven-time All Star LaMarcus Aldridge, is out. The Kings' top big man, Marvin Bagley III, is out. Sacramento's best player is DeAaron Fox. He leads the team in points, assists and steals. Fox has been dealing with a sprained ankle. He may not be 100 percent. Certainly he's going to be rusty. Center Jakob Poeltl has looked good when Aldridge has been missing. The Spurs actually were outscoring opponents by 4.5 points per 100 possessions when Poeltl was on the floor instead of Aldridge. This is the first game back for each team since March. It's a no-brainer that Gregg Popovich gives the Spurs a monster coaching edge against Luke Walton especially in these circumstances. The Kings are much better in an underdog role. They are just 5-12 (29 percent) the past 17 times when laying points.
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| 07-30-20 | Clippers +3 v. Lakers | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 137 h 28 m | Show |
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I believe the better team is the underdog especially with the Lakers being without guards Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley. The Clippers are at full strength and have the strongest bench in the league. The clubs met three times this season. Every game was at Staples Center, which is the home floor for each of them. So neither team had a home court edge. This is significant because they are now playing at neutral site Orlando. The Clippers beat the Lakers two of three. The Clippers are 7-1 during their last eight games with that lone defeat occurring to the Lakers, 112-103. Note the Clippers were 2 1/2-point favorites in that contest. So the line value is obvious. Bradley and Rondo played significant roles in that win. Bradley had one of his best games of the season with 24 points while Rondo dished off seven assists. Bradley is an ace defender so his big scoring game was an added bonus for the Lakers. Bradley, though, isn't playing because of Coronavirus concerns and Rondo is sidelined following thumb surgery.
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| 07-30-20 | Jazz v. Pelicans -2.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 19 m | Show |
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I'm going to take an early position on this game by locking into this number not knowing for sure if Zion Williamson is going to play. Even if Williamson is unavailable, I still like the Pelicans to cover this short number. New Orleans has all of its players healthy. The Pelicans still have loads of star power with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday and Lonzo Ball, who was playing his finest ball when the season shut down. The Pelicans have far more motivation than Utah. The Pelicans can't afford to lose. The Jazz can. Utah already has its playoff ticket punched even if it were to lose every game in Orlando during this reboot. So the Jazz are using these reboot games to tinker and fine tune for down-the-road playoff competition. Winning is not paramount to them at this stage. The Jazz need to find scoring having lost their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic, for the season due to a wrist injury. Utah is going to greatly miss Bogdanovic's long-range shooting and marksmanship. There's also the question if Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell, their two best players, can get along. They were feuding following the season being postponed after Gobert tested for Coronvirus. Their games do not complement each other. The Pelicans won all of their scrimmages, including impressively defeating the Bucks, 124-103. They have looked crisp and sharp.
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| 07-25-20 | Tigers v. Reds -1.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
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Luis Castillo is a serious Cy Young Award candidate and the Reds appear to be one of the most improved teams in baseball. The Tigers remain the Tigers - a team that went 47-114 last year and had the worst offense in the league. Detroit has dropped 23 of its last 31 interleague road games. I don't see Ivan Nova changing that trend. Nova, the Tigers' scheduled starter, doesn't miss many bats. That's dangerous against a slugging Reds team that has added power hitters Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas and is playing in their offensive-friendly ballpark.
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| 03-11-20 | Kansas State v. TCU -1.5 | Top | 53-49 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 43 m | Show |
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TCU was 2-0 versus Kansas State during the regular season. I don't see that pattern changing in their Big 12 Conferernce Tournament game. The Horned Frogs have played better down the stretch even defeating Baylor three games ago. TCU has a chance to draw an NIT bid with a good tournament showing. Kansas State is not going anywhere with a 10-21 record, 3-15 mark in the Big 12. The Wildcats actually are a little fat and happy having halted a 10-game losing streak with a 79-63 home win against Iowa State this past Saturday on their senior day. TCU is the better and more motivated squad. The Horned Frogs also have revenge incentive. Kansas State defeated them, 70-61, in the Big 12 Tournament last year.
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| 03-10-20 | Nets +11.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
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The Nets are a pesky underdog. They have covered five of the last six times getting points and are in an excellent spot to cover the spread again. The Lakers are coming off impressive victories against the Bucks this past Friday and rival Clippers two days ago. The Lakers host the Rockets on Thursday in a much bigger matchup than this one. That makes this a major letdown situation for the Lakers. Brooklyn is playing its second game under interim coach Jacque Vaughn having opened his era with a 110-107 home win against the Bulls this past Sunday. One of Vaughn's changes from former Nets coach Kenny Atkinson was starting and giving more minutes to center DeAndre Jordan at the expense of Jarrett Allen. Jordan helped the Nets outrebound the Bulls, 50-31. He is a better defensive player, rebounder and shot-blocker than Allen. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are going to receive all the attention, but Jordan knows the Lakers well from his many years with the Clippers. Brooklyn has an underrated backcourt, too, with Spencer Dimwiddie and Caris LeVert, who is averaging 28.8 points in his last four games.
Tuesday Free Play Timberwolves plus 12 1/2 at Rockets It has been eight years since the Timberwolves beat the Rockets in Houston. I don't expect Minnesota to end that 13-game road losing streak to the Rockets. I do expect, though, the Timberwolves to hang within single digits. Houston isn't playing nearly well enough to be laying this many points to any NBA opponent. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing to the Knicks on the road by two, falling to the Clippers by 15 at home, dropping a road game to the Hornets by nine points and getting blown out at home by 20 points to the Magic two days ago. The Rockets have been cold with their 3-point shooting and are minus-36 rebounding during their losing streak. That's the danger of going with the smallest lineup in the NBA. Houston also could be minus Eric Gordon, its third-leading scorer. He's questionable with a knee injury. The major part of my handicap is a fade on the Rockets. But the Timberwolves do offer a top-10 offense. They have produced at least 115 points in 11 of their last 14 games. D'Angelo Russell is an accomplished scorer and shooting guard Malik Beasley is one of the more underrated players in the league producing nine 20-point performances in 13 games since coming from Denver. Sure there's a chance the Rockets take their frustrations out on the Timberwolves. Keep in mind, though, the Rockets are playing their third game in four days and have a far bigger matchup on deck against the Lakers on Thursday. Houston is not a deep team either. So even in a worst case scenario for the Timberwolves of the Rockets getting things together, the backdoor should swing open if late-game garbage time should occur. |
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| 03-09-20 | Coastal Carolina +5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 65-70 | Push | 0 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
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Coastal Carolina averages nearly 10 more points per game than Appalachian State. That showed when the teams last met 10 days ago at Appalachian State. The Chanticleers won, 84-77, as 4-point road 'dogs. The Chanticleers average nearly 80 points on the road. The Mountaineers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home agmes and 1-8 ATS the past nine times when favored. I really like Coastal Carolina point guard DeVante Jones. I also like the way the Chanticleers stepped up defensively in their last game nipping Texas-Arlington, 63-62, as 5.5-point road 'dogs in their first round Sun Belt Conference Tournament game this past Saturday. The Mountaineers have short revenge, but Coast Carolina certainly isn't going to lack incentive knowing it needs to win this Sun Belt Conference Tourney to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.
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| 03-07-20 | Penn State -7 v. Northwestern | Top | 69-80 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
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Penn State needs to get well and Northwestern is the perfect remedy. The Nittany Lions are in a kill mood after losing four of their last five games, including a 79-71 loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State this past Tuesday. Before meeting the Spartans, the Nittany Lions played at Iowa, hosted Rutgers, played at Indana and hosted Illinois. Now they are dropping way down in class. Northwestern has lost 13 of its last 14 games with its one win during this span coming in overtime against Nebraska when the Cornhuskers missed a mind-boggling 22 of 30 free throws. Each of the Wildcats' last six losses have been by eight or more points. Northwestern is on pace to lose its most Big Ten games in 30 years. The Wildcats are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games, too. The teams met on Feb. 15 and Penn State had no problem handling Northwestern winning, 77-61.
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| 03-06-20 | Ohio +2 v. Miami-OH | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
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Wrong team favored. Ohio buried Miami of Ohio, 77-46, when it hosted the Redhawks on Feb. 8. I don't see anything that has changed now a month later. Miami of Ohio being home doesn't alter that. The Redhawks are 3-7 in their last 10 games, scoring 65 or fewer points in seven of those matchups. They are last in the Mid-American Conference East Division with a 5-12 record. The Bobcats have held eight of their last 10 opponents to 69 points or fewer, while averaging 71.1 points. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. Jason Preston has been hot for the Bobcats scoring at least 18 points in five of his last six games.
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| 03-05-20 | Portland v. Santa Clara -7 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 1 m | Show |
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Portland enters tournament play on one of the worst runs in the nation going 0-14 SU, 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 games. The Pilots have scored 65 or fewer points in nine of their last 11 games. Santa Clara averages 75.8 points a game. Santa Clara buried Portland, 85-61, on the road in the first meeting this season on Feb. 1. Santa Clara hosted the Pilots in a rematch on Feb. 29 and just won by five, 73-68. Portland, a bad shooting team, made 10 of 24 from 3-point range and sank 80 percent of its free throws. The Pilots are a 67.5 percent shooting free throw team. Now the stakes are raised with this being a first-round West Coast Conference Tournament game at neutral site Las Vegas. I don't see Portland being able to stay within single digits this time around.
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| 03-04-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5 | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
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I like Notre Dame as a home 'dog in revenge. Florida State nipped the Irish, 85-84, as a 9-point home favorite on Jan. 25. The Seminoles may not be completely recovered from a last-second, 70-69, road loss at Clemson this past Saturday. The Irish need a victory to boost their NCAA Tourney chances. The had won three straight until an 84-73 road loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. Notre Dame has never lost to Florida State at Purcell Pavilion. The Irish give up the fewest turnovers per game and have a huge inside advantage thanks to John Mooney, who is tied with Tim Duncan for the single-season record of 15 double-doubles in ACC competition. This has been a 'dog series, too, with the favorite just 1-5 ATS the last six times.
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| 03-03-20 | Cleveland State v. Oakland -7 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
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Oakland is home for this first-round Horizon League Conference Tournament matchup. The Golden Grizzlies are peaking winning five of their last six. Their scoring has increased since star guard Rashad Williams returned from injury 13 games ago. Oakland has scored 68 or more points in each of its last 10 games. Cleveland State averages 64.3 points and ranks 329th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency ratings. The Vikings are terrible long-rang shooters, which impacts their ability to come from behind. While Oakland is on the upswing, Cleveland State enters the tournament having lost three of its past four. The Vikings are 0-2 to the Golden Grizzlies this season losing by an average of nine points.
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| 03-02-20 | North Carolina A&T -1 v. South Carolina State | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
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I have found one college basketball game I like on the Monday board and it comes from the small Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference. North Carolina AT&T opened the slightest of favorites against South Carolina State. The Aggies are not a good road team, but they still are superior to South Carolina State. The Aggies rolled past the Bulldogs, 78-63, in the first meeting a month ago despite missing 16 of 19 shots from 3-point range. The Aggies are tied for first in the conference with an 11-3 mark. They are 15-14 overall and have won eight of their last 10. South Carolina State is 11-16 overall and 6-9 in conference. The Aggies hold a huge backcourt edge with Kameron Langley and Ronald Jackson. They have helped the Aggies score 71 or more points in 14 of their last 15 games. I find this a very cheap price to get the much better team.
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| 03-01-20 | Pistons +7.5 v. Kings | Top | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
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The Kings just defeated the Grizzlies in Memphis two days ago. That was a big victory for the Kings. Sacramento concluded its four-game road trip going 3-1. Now, though, the Kings could run into an ambush and may also be short-handed. Sacramento may not have its full concentration and motivation returning home to face the lowly Pistons. Sacramento has failed to cover seven of the last 10 times it has been a home favorite. So the Kings are not good in this home favorite role. The Kings could really be in trouble if their two top point guards, De'Aaron Fox and Cory Joseph, both are out. Each is questionable. Fox has been battling an abdominal injury while Joseph has a bruised heel. Detroit has been getting strong contributions lately from youngsters Christian Wood and Brandon Knight along with a steady hand from rejuvenated veteran Derrick Rose. The Pistons are playing loose and had their confidence restored with a 113-111 road win against the Suns on Friday.
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| 03-01-20 | Florida International +5 v. Charlotte | Top | 67-52 | Win | 100 | 5 h 9 m | Show |
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This should be a closely contested game as these two teams are nearly even in the Conference USA standings and playing for tournament seeding. Florida International outscores Charlotte by nearly eight points a game and forces the most turnovers in Conference USA. Turning the ball over is a weakness for Charlotte. The 49ers have scored fewer than 69 points in four of their last six games and are going to have problems scoring inside facing the Panthers' ace shot blocker Osasumwen Osaghae. I also like the Panthers having revenge motivation for a blowout loss suffered to the 49ers on Jan. 25.
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| 02-28-20 | Nets -2 v. Hawks | Top | 118-141 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
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The Nets have dominated the Hawks this season winning and covering all three meetings. Brooklyn's winning margin against Atlanta this season is 13 points. Brooklyn is trying to hold on to the No. 7 seed in the East. This is important since the 8th seed would face the Bucks in the first round. The Nets are in stop-the-pain mode having lost two in a row. The Nets are a better team than the Hawks and should be fully focused knowing their next two games are on the road against the Heat and Celtics, which loom as likely losses. I would suggest locking in now if you can because the line would skyrocket up if Trae Young can't play. He's been battling an illness and didn't practice Thursday. |
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| 02-27-20 | Arizona State +4 v. UCLA | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
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Arizona State romped past UCLA, 84-66, at home as six-point favorites three weeks ago. The Bruins have gone 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS since then. But Arizona State also has been playing well winning its past seven games. So I have to get involved taking these points. The Sun Devils can hold their own inside against the Bruins and have top-notch guards in Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. They both average more than 20 points a game. Martin ranks second in the Pac-12 in scoring while also averaging four assists a game and 1.6 steals.
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| 02-26-20 | Bradley -3 v. Illinois State | Top | 74-71 | Push | 0 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
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Bradley buried Illinois State, 75-63, as 8 1/2-point favorites on Jan. 22. The Braves accomplished that despite not having their two top scorers, Elijah Childs and Darrell Brown. Both are back for the Braves. It was the fourth straight time Bradley has defeated Illinois State. Illinois State plays better at home and is the host team. However, the Braves are the superior team and the spot sets up well for them. Illinois State is off an upset home win against Drake in their Senior Day game. The Redbirds are fat and happy after that win. They also are locked into the No. 9 seed for the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament, which opens next week. Bradley still has a shot at being as high as a No. 2 seed. The Braves rank 27th in the nation in defensive field goal percentage. Illinois State ranks last in the MVC in assist-to-turnover ratio and is ninth in the conference in scoring at 65.8 points. So not only is Bradley much better, but the situation is ripe, too, for the Braves. Considering this, I believe this line is way too short as I expect the Braves to win by double-digits again. |
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| 02-25-20 | Thunder -6.5 v. Bulls | Top | 124-122 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
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Considering the Bulls' massive amount of injuries, I would rate the Thunder three levels higher than Chicago. So I don't mind laying these road points. Oklahoma City has been a top road team covering 22 of its last 27 away games for 81 percent. The Thunder have covered their last 13 away games! This is the Thunder's first road matchup since the All-Star break. The Thunder have looked great coming off break beating the Nuggets, 113-101, and Spurs, 131-103. They are 3 1/2 games out of being the No. 3 playoff seed in the West. Chicago is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games. The Bulls still are far from healthy being without Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter Jr., Wendell Carter Jr., Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. They are extremely thin up front. Zach LaVine and promising rookie Cody White are it for the Bulls right now. The Thunder have a deep rotation, including three very good guards. Oklahoma City is 20-6 ATS the past 26 times versus sub .500 foes. The Bulls have covered only 31 percent of their last 58 home games.
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| 02-24-20 | Magic +3.5 v. Nets | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
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Brooklyn is 8-4 in its last 12 games. Orlando is 3-9 in its past 12 games. Note, though, that half of the Nets' victories during this 12-game span were against below .500 foes. The Magic have played a far tougher schedule during their last 12 games drawing the Thunder, Heat twice, Celtics, Bucks, Clippers and Mavericks. The Magic have struggled versus elite teams, but are 8-3 SU and ATS the past 11 times when meeting below .500 foes. This includes a 101-89 home win against the Nets on Jan. 6. Orlando gives up five fewer points than Brooklyn. The Magic have been idle the past three days. This is a huge game for the Magic as they trail the Nets by 2 1/2 games for the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs. That's important because the 8th seed would draw the Bucks in the first round.
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| 02-23-20 | Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
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I don't want to minimize Portland not having Damian Lillard here. It's a big loss. But Detroit has nothing anymore. The Pistons have gotten rid of Andre Drummond, Reggie Jackson and Markieff Morris. The Pistons have lost five in a row. I can't see them being competitive on the road against a borderline Western Conference playoff team that has motivation. The Trail Blazers can't afford to take the Pistons lightly. And they won't minus Lillard and being 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West. Even minus Lillard, the Trail Blazers still have the three best players on the court in CJ McCollum, Hassan Whiteside and Carmelo Anthony. Portland is a top-eight scoring team that averages nearly 114 points. Detroit has no firepower anymore. The Pistons are averaging 96.6 points during regulation in their last five games.
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| 02-22-20 | Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | Top | 76-78 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
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Nevada-Reno should keep rolling. The Wolf Pack have won four in a row. Their scoring has taken off as the Wolf Pack have produced 86 or more points in six of their last eight games. The Wolf Pack own a strong home-court edge, too, winning 19 straight Mountain West home contests. They are 11-2 at home this season. Fresno State isn't playing nearly as well, isn't as good as Nevada and is a poor road team. The Bulldogs beat Air Force at home in their last game. However, they were 1-3 in their previous four games before that with the lone victory coming in overtime against a pathetic San Jose State squad. The Bulldogs are 4-9 on the road. They don't have the firepower to hang with the Wolf Pack, who are averaging 77.5 points and rank 12th in the nation in 3-point shooting.
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| 02-21-20 | Celtics -6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 127-117 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
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Boston comes out of the All-Star break winning eight of its last nine. Minnesota is 1-15 in its last 16 games and lost 115-108 at home to the Hornets nine days ago the last time it took the floor. The Celtics won't have Kemba Walker. They will Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward along with a much strong bench than the Timberwolves. Brad Stevens versus Ryan Saunders is a monster coaching mismatch. The Timberwolves will be minus Karl-Anthony Towns. That leaves them D'Angelo Russell, who is learning the Timberwolves' system, and a bunch of garbage, including a very thin front line. This is the first of a four-game road swing for Boston. The Celtics face the Lakers, Trail Blazers and Jazz after this matchup. Stevens knows the Celtics can't screw up this first leg of the road trip. Boston is 5-1-1 ATS the past seven times when playing on three or more days rest. Minnesota is 4-10 ATS the last 14 times in similar situations. The Celtics also have won and covered the past six times they've met the Timberwolves.
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| 02-20-20 | Murray State -4 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 60-63 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
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Eastern Illinois had won four in a row when it played on the road against Murray State on Jan. 30. Murray State beat the Panthers for the fifth straight time, 73-70. Since that loss, Eastern Illinois has gone 1-4 SU and ATS. The Panthers are not playing well like they were at the end of last month. Murray State is 13-2 in its last 15 games. The Racers are tied with Austin Peay on top of the Ohio Valley Conference. They are clearly better than Eastern Illinois, which is 5-9 in conference and has a losing overall record. The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four home games. The superiority of Murray State is illustrated by the KenPom ratings, which have the Racers ranked 153rd in offensive efficiency and 141st in defensive efficiency compared to Eastern Illinois, which is rated 242nd in offensive efficiency and 249th in defensive efficiency.
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| 02-19-20 | Valparaiso v. Drake -4 | Top | 75-77 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
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Drake has a size advantage with 7-footer Liam Robinson and is a very strong 13-1 at home. Valparaiso is just 4-8 on the road. The Crusaders, however, nipped Illinois State, 65-62, on the road in their last game this past Saturday for their second straight victory. Valparaiso hasn't won three Missouri Valley Conference games in a row all season. The Crusaders are averaging 59.7 points in their last four games. Drake has scored a minium of 71 points in six of its last eight games.
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| 02-18-20 | Nevada -1.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 88-74 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show |
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If you toss out a 73-64 road loss to Boise State, Nevada is averaging 89.6 points during its last six games. New Mexico has surrendered 78 or more points in eight of its last 10 games and five of its past six games. The Wolfpack have a backcourt edge with Jalen Harris and Jazz Johnson. Nevada forces a lot of turnovers and New Mexico commits a lot of turnovers. New Mexico lost its low post edge when double/double machine Carlton Bragg was dismissed from the team in mid-January. The Lobos didn't have Bragg when they were slaughtered by Nevada, 96-74, in Reno on Jan. 25. The Wolfpack are ascending while the Lobos are going downhill. New Mexico is 1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS in its last six games. The Wolfpack have won three in a row while covering seven of their last eight.
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| 02-17-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas -16 | Top | 71-91 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
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Iowa State is real down this season. Poor play on the road and the loss of star guard Tyrese Haliburton for the season are factors the Cyclonces can't overcome. The Cyclones are 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in true road games. In their last two road games, they lost by 29 at Oklahoma and by 15 at West Virginia. By comparison, Kansas just trounced Oklahoma by 17 points at home this past Saturday and two games ago defeated West Virginia on the road by nine points. That's a good current comparison showing the difference between Iowa State and Kansas and why I feel confident laying this many points with the Jayhawks. Kansas destroyed Iowa State, 79-53, on the road in the first meeting between the teams, too. The Jayhawks are 10-0 SU, 7-3 ATS since losing to Baylor. They trail the Bears by one game for first place in the Big 12 with six games left to play. So I'm not expecting a letup from Kansas especially after Iowa State beat Kansas in the Big 12 Conference Tournament last season. If there's a letdown it probably would come from Iowa State as the Cyclones are coming off an 81-52 home win against Texas from Saturday.
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| 02-16-20 | Memphis +4 v. Connecticut | Top | 61-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
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I'm often attracted to the better team receiving points. That's the case here. Memphis is 17-7 and defeated Connecticut, 70-63, at home on Feb. 1. It was the Tigers' fourth straight victory against the Huskies. Despite their excellent record, Memphis has had a number of close losses. The Tigers have lost to Georgia, SMU and South Florida by a combined nine points. They just lost in overtime at Cincinnati in their last game this past Thursday. The Tigers blew a 10-point lead with six minutes left against the Bearcats. The Huskies are 13-11, but are not playing well losing eight of their last 12. The Huskies are going to have problems controlling Memphis' Precious Achiuwa inside.
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| 02-15-20 | West Virginia v. Baylor -5 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
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I don't see Baylor's 21-game win streak ending at home to West Virginia. The Bears have too much guard depth for the Mountaineer and flexibility with the ability to win playing either slow or fast. West Virginia has scored just 49 and 59 points during its last two games shooting under 32 percent in each. The Bears have held nine of their last 13 opponents to 57 points or fewer. The Mountaineers have lost and failed to cover in each of their last three road contests losing by 10 points to Oklahoma, by eight to Texas Tech and by 16 to Kansas State.
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| 02-14-20 | Illinois-Chicago +11 v. Wright State | Top | 58-75 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
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Wright State is on top of the Horizon League standings at 11-2, while Illinois-Chicago is 7-6. But that doesn't mean Wright State is strong as a favorite. In fact, the Raiders are most decidedly not going 4-11-1 ATS as favorites of five points or more. Illinois-Chicago is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games. The Flames are road tested, too, winning four of their past six away games with the two losses coming by a combined three points. This has been a 'dog series with the underdog covering four of the last five times. That has meant Illinois-Chicago. The Flames have won and covered the past three times versus Wright State, including 76-72 at home this season as six-point 'dogs.
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| 02-14-20 | Fairfield +3 v. Marist | Top | 57-53 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
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I have found an underdog spot I like between two lower tier teams from the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. Fairfield and Marist are two of the lowest-scoring teams in the nation. Fairfield averages 59.7 points. Marist averages 60.7 points. Fairfield has the better defense ranking 45th in the nation in scoring defense. The Stags have gone 7-5 in their last 12 games. They have proven themselves away from home with a neutral floor victory against Texas A&M and road win against Oakland. Marist is 6-15 on the season. The Red Foxes have been favored just twice this season, both times back in November. They lost both of those games straight-up.
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| 02-13-20 | Arizona v. California +10 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
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Arizona is highly talented. The Wildcats also are widely inconsistent and don't play that well on the road where they have failed to cover 10 of the past 14 times. California is a bad road team, but 10-3 at Haas Pavilion. The Golden Bears have covered five in a row at home and own Pac-12 home victories against Washington, Stanford and Oregon State. Point guard Paris Austin has stepped up his play recently for the Bears, who also have been clamping down defensively holding their last six foes to an average of 62.5 points a game. The Wildcats are coming off their worst shooting game of the season, a 65-52 home loss to UCLA this past Saturday. Cal's slow play can frustrate the Wildcats.
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| 02-12-20 | Cal-Irvine -4 v. Cal-Riverside | Top | 63-59 | Push | 0 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
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Cal Irvine is the best team in the Big West Conference. The Anteaters have covered 68 percent of the time during the past 26 instances they have been favored. I want them going for me in this short point spread range off a loss and against a mediocre UC Riverside squad, who has just one player averaging in double figures. That's Arinze Chidom and he's scores 11.1 points a game. The Anteaters had a four-game win streak snapped by UC Santa Barbara this past Saturday. The Highlanders have lost five of their last seven games. They are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times when taking on an above .500 opponent. They also have failed to cover four of the past five times as a home 'dog. Cal Irvine beat the Highlanders by 16 points when the teams met earlier this season.
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| 02-11-20 | Bulls v. Wizards -2.5 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
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Down four of their five best players, it's no wonder the Bulls have lost five in a row. Chicago is missing injured Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Otto Porter and Wendall Carter. Now the Bulls have to face a below-the-radar Wizards squad that has won seven of their last 10 home games. Washington has gotten key role players Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans and Mo Wagner healthy and improved itself at the trade deadline picking up Shabazz Napier. The Wizards have beaten far better teams than the Bulls during their last 10 home contests, including knocking off the Mavericks, Nuggets and Celtics. Washington won't lack motivation either after blowing a 12-point lead at home in a loss to the Grizzlies this past Sunday. The Bulls are 4-8-1 ATS the past 13 times when taking points. Chicago averages nine fewer points per game than Washington.
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| 02-11-20 | Northern Illinois +8 v. Ball State | Top | 59-63 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
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Points really matter here as this figures to be a grind-out type of matchup as evidenced by the total. Northern Illinois has won five in a row. The Huskies have held their past five opponents to an average of 56.2 points a game. Ball State is an inconsistent shooting team and not as good from the foul line as Northern Illinois. The Cardinals have allowed 67 or more points in three of their last five games and are 6-14 ATS the past 20 times when going against foes with a winning record. The Huskies are 9-2 ATS, by contrast, when playing an above .500 opponent. They also have covered in their last five road contests. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog going 5-0-1 ATS in the past six meetings.
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| 02-10-20 | Baylor -6 v. Texas | Top | 52-45 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
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Probably some team is going to end top-ranked Baylor's win streak, which sits at 20 in a row. But I highly doubt Texas is going to be that team. The Longhorns don't have it this season. They just blew a 31-19 halftime lead at home to Texas Tech on Saturday losing, 62-57. Texas also lost a pair of starters to injuries in that game, Kai Jones and Jase Febres. Neither is expected to play today. Both are guards. Jones is Texas' second-leading scorer although none of its players average more than 13 points a game. Baylor is 7-0 in true road games. The Bears also rolled past the Longhorns, 59-44, at home on Jan. 4. Baylor whipped Texas by 15 points in that game despite being outshot from the floor and making just 5-of-15 free throws. It was the eighth time in the last nine meetings Baylor has beaten Texas.
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| 02-09-20 | Ohio State v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
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Wisconsin is very strong at home as evidenced by its 10-1 mark in Madison. The Badgers do their best at home against strong opponents. I'm expecting a focused, strong effort from the Badgers after they suffered an embarrassing, 70-52, road loss to Minnesota this past Wednesday after knocking off Michigan State at home in their previous game. The Badgers shot a season-low 28.4 percent from the floor against the Gophers. The Badgers shot just 38 percent from the field in the first meeting this season against Ohio State. Wisconsin missed 17 of 23 shots from 3-point range in that game yet still won, 61-57, on the road despite being outshot. Ohio State is coming off a 61-58 road win against Michigan this past Tuesday. I don't see the Buckeyes pulling off consecutive away victories against the Wolverines and Badgers.
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| 02-08-20 | Gonzaga -6 v. St. Mary's | Top | 90-60 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
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Gonzaga is the class of the West Coast Conference and I expect the Bulldogs to get the job done against the Gaels. Saint Mary's is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 home games. The Gaels also have been a poor underdog going 4-12 ATS the past 16 times in that role. Gonzaga should be a lot sharper than it was when it beat Loyola Marymount this past Thursday, 85-67. The Bulldogs missed 14 of 15 shots from 3-point range in that victory. That was a fluke, though, as the Bulldogs were leading the nation in 3-point shooting previous to that. The Gaels don't have the firepower and scoring depth Gonzaga does. The Bulldogs were averaging 12 more points per game than St. Mary's, leading the nation in scoring and ranking No. 2 in field goal percentage. The Bulldogs haven't forgotten losing to Saint Mary's in the WCC tourney last season. They have owned the Gaels beating them 15 of the past 19 times.
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| 02-07-20 | Heat +1 v. Kings | Top | 97-105 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
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Jimmy Butler isn't likely to play and Miami has a losing road record at 12-13. OK, now that those two items are out in the open, I still expect Miami to win this game. Better team, better coach that's why. The Heat are off a 128-111 road loss to the Clippers this past Wednesday. Miami doesn't play again until Sunday when it is at Portland. So the Heat should be fully focused. They are 20-5-1 ATS following a defeat. I consider Miami's Erik Spoelstra one of the better coaches in the league and Sacramento's Luke Walton one of the worst. The Kings are once again playing for the future. They have been dreadful at home going 3-12-1 ATS the past 16 times.
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| 02-06-20 | Pelicans -4 v. Bulls | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
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Aside from Zach LaVine, the Bulls are fielding a junior varsity lineup due to their many injuries. Guard Kris Dunn is the latest Bulls casualty. He's out with a knee injury joining Lauri Markkanen, Wendell Carter Jr. and Otto Porter Jr. on the sidelines. The Bulls can't wait until All-Star break to try to regroup. They are minus their No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 leading scorers. This is their first game back from an 0-3 road trip that concluded with losses to the Nets and Raptors by a combined 42 points. Those defeats put Chicago 14 games below .500, its low mark of the season. New Orleans is on the upswing. The Pelicans were playing well even before Zion Williamson joined the lineup. There's a chance Williamson doesn't play here because of a sprained toe, but New Orleans still has way more talent than the Bulls with Brandon Ingram, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and JJ Redick. The Pelicans are dropping way down in class having just played the hot Grizzlies, Rockets and Bucks. New Orleans is 8-1 ATS the past nine times meeting a sub .500 opponent. The Bulls have failed to cover 20 of the last 26 times as a home underdog and are 1-8 ATS versus the Pelicans at home. The teams met on Jan. 8 in New Orleans and the Pelicans easily handed the Bulls, 123-108.
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| 02-05-20 | Bradley v. Drake | Top | 60-73 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
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Bradley beat Drake, 80-72, at home to begin Missouri Valley Conference play. Now Drake gets its revenge. The Bulldogs are much stronger at home - 11-1 - and the Braves are much weaker on the road. Bradley averages fewer than 64 points on the road. Drake holds road foes to 64.6 points at home, while averaging 76.2 points when playing in Des Moines.
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| 02-04-20 | Bucks -6 v. Pelicans | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 12 m | Show |
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No doubt the Pelicans are going to be sky-high for this nationally televised (TNT) home matchup now that they have Zion Williamson healthy and living up to his hype averaging 19.5 points and shooting 61.5 percent from the floor. But a couple of things are being overlooked with this line opening too short in my view. The Bucks are the best team in basketball and they, too, will be highly motivated to perform well here. The small-market Bucks don't take nationally televised games for granted like the big market teams do. Milwaukee has a lot of pride. That pride was stung when Giannis Antetokounmpo and other Bucks felt their team should have received more All-Star Game roster spots. The Bucks have won 10 of their last 11 games. All of those victories except one were by at least nine points. The Bucks are at the top of their game. The Pelicans are 3-3 since Williamson returned from knee surgery. The Pelicans are still in the feeling out process with Williamson and his teammates. They are not fully in sync yet. The Pelicans were not match for the Bucks when they lost 127-112 at Milwaukee on Dec. 11. Williamson didn't play then. But Antetokounmpo also missed that game.
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| 02-03-20 | Pistons v. Grizzlies -6.5 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
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The Grizzlies may be ahead of schedule with their many promising young players. They are holding down the final playoff spot in the Western Conference with the Trail Blazers and Spurs chasing them. I don't know if Memphis can make the playoffs. I'd be kind of surprised if the Grizzlies did finish ahead of the veteran Trail Blazers and Spurs. But I do know the Grizzlies have a deep pool of talented youngsters and can beat bad teams like the Pistons at home especially when the spot is favorable as it is here. Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 18 of its last 20 games. The Pistons rank 27th in defensive field goal percentage and coming off a 128-123 home overtime victory against the Nuggets on Sunday. Detroit rallied from 21 points in the win. Prior to that victory, the Pistons had lost five in a row with the losing margin being by an average of 12.2 points. Derrick Rose suffered a groin injury against the Nuggets. He's not expected to play. Rose has been tremendous this season. He and Andre Drummond have been Detroit's best players by far. Rose is the Pistons' most complete player. The Grizzlies, on the other hand, are itching to play again after being embarrassed by the Pelicans this past Friday, 139-111. That was the game following the Grizzlies' 127-106 road win against the Knicks that turned ugly at the end. Jaren Jackson sat out his one game suspension against New Orleans. He'll be play here. The Grizzlies also are hoping Brandon Clarke can play, too. He's been bothered by a sore hip. Even with that loss to the Pelicans, the Grizzlies still have won 11 of their last 14 games. This includes a 125-112 road victory versus the Pistons on Jan. 24. Jackson scored 29 points in that win.
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| 02-01-20 | Rutgers v. Michigan | Top | 63-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
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This matchup is part of the Big Ten's Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden in New York. Michigan is 3-0 in neutral site games this season, while Rutgers is 1-5 in neutral-site matchups. The Wolverines have won nine in a row playing at Madison Square Garden. They also are a perfect 10-0 lifetime verus Rutgers winning the last five in the series by an average of 10.4 points. Rutgers is a much stronger team when playing at home. The Wolverines defeated Nebraska, 79-68, this past Tuesday minus suspended guard Zavier Simpson. Rutgers struggled against Nebraska two games ago, finally defeating the Cornhuskers, 75-72, as 13.5-point home favorites last Saturday. Simpson will be back in action in this game for Michigan. That's huge. Theer's a chance the Wolverines also could get back Isaiah Livers from a groin injury. That would be an added bonus, but I like Michigan to win this game with or without Livers.
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| 01-31-20 | Raptors -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-92 | Win | 100 | 17 h 19 m | Show |
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The Raptors have won nine in a row going 6-3 ATS. The Pistons are 15 games below .500. They've lost four in a row - all by double-digits. So I'm going to ride the much superior and hotter club against a dead Pistons team that has been a huge money-loser at home, 2-9 ATS in their 11 home contest. The line is short because the Raptors played on Thursday and weren't that sharp in a 115-109 road win against the Cavaliers. Toronto should play better here. The Raptors destroyed the Pistons, 122-99, when the teams last met in Detroit on Dec. 18. Look for a similar result here. |
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| 01-30-20 | Cal-Irvine -4.5 v. UC-Davis | Top | 80-65 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
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Cal Irvine is a class above UC Davis and due to play better after its coach, Russell Turner, took his team to task for recent performances. The Anteaters went 31-6 last year giving up 63.6 points a game. Irvine is strong again this season yielding 65.6 points while averaging 73.4. The Anteaters had their 14-game Big West Conference road streak broken in their last away game, losing to Long Beach State, 63-56, eight days ago. They followed that up with a lackluster, 74-67, home win against Cal Poly this past Saturday as 16-point favorites. Prior to those two games, the Anteaters had covered five in a row. I see Cal Irvine getting back on track with a focused road effort here. UC Davis is 2-6 ATS at home this season. The Aggies lost both matchups to Irvine last season, including, 64-48, at home last Feb. 28.
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| 01-29-20 | Lightning -1.5 v. Kings | Top | 4-2 | Win | 132 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
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Look for Tampa Bay to beat the Kings for an eighth straight time - and in a big way, too. The Lightning came out of All-Star break not looking good in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Stars on Monday. They will look to take their frustrations out on a rusty Kings squad that hasn't played in 11 days and is 1-6-1 in their last eight games. The Kings don't have much of a home ice edge and the mood figures to be somber in LA so soon after the death of Kobe Bryant. Tampa Bay goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy is having a strong January with a .955 save percentage.
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| 01-26-20 | Suns v. Grizzlies -2.5 | Top | 109-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
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It's not a misprint. If the season ended today, the Grizzlies would be in the playoffs. Memphis has come on winning eight of its last 10 games, going 7-3 ATS, to grab the eighth spot in the Western Conference. Phoenix is much improved, too. But the Grizzlies are the better team with more balanced scoring and prime rookie of the year candidate Ja Morant trumping Ricky Rubio at point guard. Morant is averaging 17.4 points and 7.1 assists. Sparked by Morant, the Grizzlies are the highest scoring team in the league this month. Memphis has scored 110 or more points in 15 of its last 16 games. Phoenix ranks 20th in scoring defense and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Suns enter this matchup a bit fat and happy having defeated the Spurs this past Friday in San Antonio. It was the Suns' first win there in seven years. The Suns beat the Grizzlies on Nov. 2. Memphis has improved a great deal since then beating the Suns, 115-108, on Dec. 11 and 121-114 on Jan. 5. Both of those victories came at Phoenix.
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| 01-25-20 | CS-Northridge -1.5 v. CS-Fullerton | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
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Lamine Diane is firmly back in Cal State-Northridge's lineup after missing games due to off-court issues. Diane makes a huge difference. Just ask Cal Santa Barbara. Sparked by Diane's 27 points, the Matadors upset Santa Barbara as big road 'dogs, 83-75, this past Wednesday. It was the seventh time in their last nine road games, the Matadors have covered the spread. Cal State-Fullerton is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 home games, including failing to cover the past nine times as a home 'dog.
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| 01-25-20 | Mavs v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
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Utah is the hottest team in the NBA winning 18 of its last 20 games. The Jazz's last three victories have been by an average of 28.3 points. Dallas is one of the most improved teams in the NBA, but this is a tough road spot for the Mavericks. The Jazz have been idle since Wednesday, while the Mavericks played on Thursday and earlier this week lost underrated big man Dwight Powell for the season with an Achilles injury. The Mavericks beat the Trail Blazers in Portland on Thursday in their first game without Powell. I don't see them doing that to the Jazz, who can exploit the injury with Rudy Gobert playing at such a high level. The Jazz have covered their last seven home games and are 13-3 ATS the past 16 times laying points.
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| 01-24-20 | Kent State v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
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These two teams are going in opposite directions. Kent State started 13-3, but the Golden Flashes are struggling now with a three-game losing streak. I don't see Kent State getting well on the road against two-time defending Mid-American Conference champion Buffalo. The Bulls have won four in a row and won't want to be embarrassed on national TV. Buffalo can be outstanding rebounding on the offensive end and Kent State hasn't done a good job rebounding on the defensive glass.
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| 01-21-20 | Illinois v. Purdue -5.5 | Top | 79-62 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
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I want Purdue going for me here off a loss and in revenge mode. Illinois is playing well, winning four in a row. But the Illini are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road contests when meeting a foe with a winning home record. Purdue has one of the strongest home-courts in the nation. The Boilermakers are 8-1 at home this season and have won 15 consecutive Big Ten home matchups. Purdue is coming off a 57-50 road loss to Maryland this past Saturday. The Boilermakers are 9-1-2 ATS following a loss. The Boilermakers also have revenge for an embarrassing 63-37 road defeat to Illinois four games ago. Purdue shot a school-worst 25 percent from the floor in that loss. The Boilermakers have won the last eight times they've hosted the Illini.
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| 01-20-20 | Oklahoma +10 v. Baylor | Top | 57-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
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Baylor got past Iowa State and escaped Oklahoma State on Saturday. Things don't let up for the No. 2 ranked Bears, though, with this matchup. Oklahoma has its confidence again after beating TCU, 83-63, two days ago. Baylor had a much more difficult time with its Saturday victory against the Cowboys trailing by 12 in the second half. It was a terrible beat for those who backed Oklahoma State at plus 6. The Cowboys trailed by three with 14 seconds left, but ended up losing by seven when Baylor sank four free throws at the end. It was the only time all game that the Bears led by that many points. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.
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| 01-18-20 | West Virginia v. Kansas State +6 | Top | 68-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
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West Virginia is in a vulnerable spot coming off probably its best game of the season, an 81-49 home win against TCU this past Tuesday. The Mountaineers shot a season-high 58 percent from the floor. The Mountaineers are going to have to take desperate Kansas State's best punch. The Wildcats' Big 12 season hangs in the balance as they are 0-4. Kansas State is one of the top 45 defenses in the country and they are going to be tough at home in this spot. West Virginia has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been a road favorite.
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| 01-17-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan State -9 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
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Wisconsin is not the same team on the road as it is at home. The Badgers have a losing away mark. The spot isn't good either for Wisconsin. The Badgers are off a thrilling, 56-54, home win against 17th-ranked Maryland this past Tuesday, while Michigan State has had five days to think about its worst loss in three years, a 71-42 road defeat to Purude this past Sunday. The Spartans have covered 68 percent of their last 52 home games versus below .500 road opponents. They have won 11 straight against Wisconsin in East Lansing. Michigan State's best players - Cassius Winston, Xavier Tillman and Aaron Henry - are all off their worst performance. They won't lack motivation. The Badgers can't match that being away from Madison.
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| 01-16-20 | Suns -3 v. Knicks | Top | 121-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
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The Suns aren't as good minus point guard Ricky Rubio. The combination of missing Rubio and having the Hawks shooting 49.5 percent caused Phoenix to lose, 123-110, to Atlanta on Tuesday. Rubio is back and I like Phoenix to cover this small number off that bad loss. The Suns are one of the more improved teams in the league, while the Knicks remain one of the worst. New York also could be without its leading scorer, Marcus Morris. He's missed the past five games due to a sore neck. The Knicks could be short-handed at point guard, too, which is one of their many areas of weakness. Phoenix is 6-2 ATS the past eight times on the road meeting a foe with a losing home mark. The Suns also have covered seven of the past nine times at Madison Square Garden. |
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| 01-14-20 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -3 | Top | 54-56 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
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Wisconsin has a very strong home-court and is a better team with big man Micah Potter, an Ohio State transfer, settling in. Potter, who became eligible six games ago, scored a career-high 24 points with 13 rebound as the Badgers defeated then 20th-ranked Penn State, 58-49, on the road this past Saturday. Now the Badgers are in Madison where they are extremely tough. Big Ten home teams are a mind-boggling 32-5 in conference games this season for 86 percent! Consequently, Maryland is a weak road club. The Terrapins have lost their three true road games and are 1-5 ATS in their past six away contests. Maryland just lost by 18 points at Iowa three days ago.
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| 01-12-20 | Hornets +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 92-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
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The Suns find themselves favored by more points than they have all season. Is it justified? Maybe by the oddsmaker's perspective, but not by mine. The Suns are 4-9 ATS the last 13 times they've been favored this season. Their record at home is 8-14. They are 4-9-1 ATS during their last 14 home contests. Charlotte can't beat or usually hang with good teams. But the Hornets have 13 victories versus sub .500 opponents. They play them tough. Charlotte is 5-2 the past seven times meeting a foe with a losing record. Terry Rozier, the Hornets' key player, is hot averaging 27.4 points on 51.1 percent shooting from the floor in his last five games. The Hornets have proven themselves on the road, too, covering eight of the last 10 times when going against opponents with a below .500 home mark. Red-hot Utah blew Charlotte out in the Hornets' last road game. However, the Hornets upset the Mavericks in their road game before that one.
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| 01-12-20 | Michigan State -3.5 v. Purdue | Top | 42-71 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
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I'm going to ride Michigan State. The Spartans are playing well - eight straight wins - and match up well to Purdue. The Boilermakers have a tough frontcourt with big men Matt Haarms and Trevion Williams. But the Spartans rank No. 2 in the country in rebounding margin and have the tough perimeter defense that Purdue needs to dent in order to set up its inside game. The Boilermakers, though, have been cold from the outside especially from long range missing 27 of their last 36 shots from 3-point range. Michigan State holds a backcourt edge led by point guard Cassius Winston, who is one of the best in the country. The Boilermakers are 0-5-1 ATS the last six times they've been 'dogs.
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| 01-11-20 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -10.5 | Top | 59-67 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
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Toledo is superior to Western Michigan and in the ultimate stop-the-pain mode having lost five in a row. I'm expecting the Rockets to take their frustrations out on the Broncos. They have defeated Western Michigan the past four times, including whipping the Broncos by 19 points at home last March. Toledo is a much better offensive team than Western Michigan averaging nearly 10 points more per game. The Broncos are also weak defensively ranking 279th.
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| 01-08-20 | Nuggets v. Mavs -3 | Top | 107-106 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
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Luka Doncic had a rare off-game when the Mavericks last played the Nuggets. That was back in October at Denver. Yet the Mavericks still won, 109-106. Doncic has been putting up monster numbers. The Mavericks' firepower is bolstered with Tim Hardaway Jr. back from a hamstring injury. It's a plus if Kristpas Porzingis can play after missing the past four games with a knee injury. I still like the Mavericks regardless of Porzingis' status. The Nuggets aren't nearly as good on the road where they are 2-6-2 ATS when meeting a foe with a winning home mark. It's Denver's fifth consecutive away matchup and concludes its nine-day road trip. So there is a fatigue factor against them, too. Dallas is 11-5-1 ATS the last 17 times when favored. The Mavericks also are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times hosting the Nuggets.
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| 01-07-20 | South Florida v. East Carolina +4 | Top | 59-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
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South Florida is nothing special. But the Bulls are inflated road favorites here after defeating Connecticut by 15 points at home in their last game. The Bulls have not won a road game all season. East Carolina has the best player in Jayden Gardner and plays better at home. The Pirates have won their last four home games.
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| 01-06-20 | Nuggets -8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 123-115 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
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This spot sets up for the road favorite Nuggets. Denver is 1-2 on its current road trip, which concludes on Wednesday at Dallas. The Nuggets are coming off an embarrassing, 128-114, loss to the short-handed Wizards. Denver coach Michael Malone ripped his team following that humiliation. The Nuggets are far superior to the Hawks, who are the worst team in the NBA at 8-28. Denver shouldn't lack incentive against this bottom feeder especially since one of the Hawks' rare victories was achieved against the Nuggets in the first meeting back on Nov. 12. Atlanta is off a surprising, 116-111, home win against the Pacers this past Saturday. That was just the Hawks' second home win since Dec. 2. Atlanta is 2-11 SU, 5-8 ATS in its past 13 games. The last time the Hawks won consecutive games was the first two games of the season. The Hawks are dealing with injuries with John Collins (back), Jabari Parker (throat) and Cam Reddish (wrist) all hurt.
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| 01-04-20 | Titans v. Patriots -4.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
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So what did the Patriots' shocking home loss to the Dolphins in Week 17 mean besides hosting a wild-card game instead of getting a bye? It means line value on New England as I consider this number too short. Look for Tom Brady to step up as the weaknesses on Tennessee's defense - vulnerable to short passes and a banged-up secondary that ranks 24th in pass defense and 27th in quarterback hit rate - suit his strengths and that of the Patriots. Brady can still pick apart defenses that are vulnerable to short passes, which the Titans are. Sony Michel is running better and Julian Edelman is healthier than he has been giving Brady his security blanket. New England has much the superior defense. The Patriots surrendered the fewest points and yards in the NFL. Their run defense has looked good, too, holding opposing running backs to 3.5 yards per carry during the last five games. Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown are Ryan Tannehill's two major weapons. The Patriots can afford to bring their safeties into the box to help on Henry because cornerback Stephon Gilmore has the talent cover Brown one-on-one. Gilmore may have been the best defensive player in the NFL this season. Tannehill is unproven in big games such as this. He has a poor record, too, versus defensive guru Bill Belichk with a 4-7 mark, 11 interceptions and a 60.1 percent completion rate. The Titans also are bucking these monster numbers: The Patriots have covered 68 percent of their last 65 home games, are 7-2 ATS in their last nine playoff games and are 48-22-1 (69 percent) following a loss.
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| 01-03-20 | Pelicans +11 v. Lakers | Top | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
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The Pelicans come in extremely well-rested having been idle the past four days. Brandon Ingram has become a star taking some of the sting of not having projected superstar rookie Zion Williamson. New Orleans is playing its best ball winning a season-best four games in a row. The Pelicans' average win margin in these games is 14.3 points and they've done it against strong competition defeating the Rockets, Pacers and Nuggets in their last three games. A major key in the Pelicans' turnaround has been defensive improvement. They've held five of their past seven opponents to 100 points or fewer. The Lakers are just 3-4 in their last seven games. They have failed to cover seven of the last nine times laying points. The Pelicans have strong incentive taking on the Lakers with Ingram, Lonzo Ball and Josh Hart being former Lakers. The Pelicans played the Lakers tight in the first meeting, losing 114-110, at home on Nov. 27. New Orleans is playing much better now.
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| 01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada +8 | Top | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
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Akron and Bowling Green were the two worst teams in the Mid-American Conference this season. Ohio blew both of them out during its last two games. If you discount those two games, though, the Bobcats went 2-8 ATS, including an 0-6 ATS mark when favored. They also failed to cover in the four games they played against other bowl teams. Nevada is undervalued here, too, because while Ohio was blowing out bad opponents the Wolf Pack fell to UNLV as a 6.5-point home favorite in their final regular season game. Nevada is better as a 'dog than favorite. The Wolf Pack defeated Purdue, San Diego State and Fresno State straight-up all as a double-digit 'dog. The Wolf Pack also knows this venue in Idaho and its higher elevation and unique blue field because they play Boise State being in the Mountain West Conference.
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| 01-02-20 | Boston College v. Cincinnati -7 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
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Boston College was the sixth-best rushing team in the nation. Most of its rushing yards, though, were provided by AJ Dillon, one of the premier running backs in college football. Dillon is turning pro so he's sitting out this game. Dillon led the ACC in rushing with 1,685 yards. That's just one of the Eagles' many problems. BC's coach, Steve Addazio, was fired at the end of the regular season and the Eagles' offensive coordinator, Mike Bajakian, left to take a job at Northwestern. The Eagles lost their starting quarterback, Anthony Brown, to a knee injury and backup QB sophomore David Bailey has been erratic. Cincinnati is far more stable. The Bearcats have a major edge on defense and a balanced offensive attack with quarterback Desmond Ridder healthy again and solid running backs MIchael Warren III and Gerrid Oaks. |
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| 01-01-20 | Blazers -3.5 v. Knicks | Top | 93-117 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
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The Trail Blazers are in stop-the-pain mode after losing at home to the Suns, 122-116, this past Monday for their fourth consecutive loss. Portland is having a disappointing season, but remain a far superior team to the Knicks. That was proven when the Trail Blazers destroyed the Knicks, 115-87, three weeks ago. It was Portland's sixth straight win against New York. The Knicks couldn't stop the Trail Blazers' star guard tandem of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, who combined for 58 points. New York is in big trouble again the backcourt against those two. The Knicks could be down to one healthy point guard, Elfrid Payton, as Frank Ntilikna (groin) and Dennis Smith Jr. (oblique) are both questionable. Carmelo Anthony should be stoked to go all out returning to Madison Square Garden having starred for the Knicks for seven seasons.
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| 12-30-19 | Green Bay +6 v. Northern Kentucky | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
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Wright State and Northern Kentucky were the preseason picks to win the Horizon League with Green Bay in the top four. Green Bay played at Wright State this past Saturday and was leading by five points with less than five minutes left before losing, 90-84, but covering as 10-point underdogs. Now the Phoenix draw Northern Kentucky on the road. The oddsmaker is taking into account not only Northern Kentucky being at home, but also beating Green Bay five consecutive times. Half of those victories, though, were by six points or less. Northern Kentucky also has a pair of key injuries. Leading scorer and rebounder for the Norse Dantez Walton is out. Jalen Tate, the Norse's top assist guy and one of the best players in the Horizon League, isn't likely to play either. So Green Bay catches a huge break to be playing the Norse now. The Phoenix play fast and have been receiving solid guard play. They are averaging more than 82 points a game, which is eight points more per game than Northern Kentucky averages.
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| 12-29-19 | 49ers v. Seahawks +3.5 | Top | 26-21 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 49 m | Show |
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Seattle is far more experienced in big prime time game such as this and owns an eight-game win streak against the 49ers. The Seahawks are banged-up defensively, but are getting some of those players back, including Jadeveon Clowney. The 49ers also have key defensive injuries namely Kwon Alexander, Dee Ford and Jaquiski Tartt. The Seahawks have won a staggering 84 percent of their prime time games under Pete Carroll, including beating the 49ers, 27-24, on the road in a Week 10 Monday night game. The Seahawks have a monster edge at quarterback in a matchup of Russell Wilson versus Jimmy Garoppolo. The Seahawks took care of their injury situation at running back by bringing back Marshawn Lynch. They also have an underrated running back in Travis Homer.
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| 12-28-19 | Kings v. Canucks -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
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The Kings upset the Sharks, 3-2, in overtime at San Jose on Friday. The Kings' reward? They have to fly to Vancouver for a game today against the well rested Canucks. The Kings have lost 40 of the past 56 times following a victory. Vancouver last was in action this past Monday. The Canucks entered the holiday break hot winning three in a row with all of the victories coming at home. Vancouver scored 13 goals during those three games. The Canucks have won the last four times they've met the Kings.
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| 12-28-19 | Pistons v. Spurs -4 | Top | 109-136 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
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The Spurs could be the most inconsistent team in the NBA. They have been playing better lately, though, and are in a big home revenge spot. The Pistons embarrassed the Spurs, 132-98, four weeks ago in Detroit. I like Gregg Popovich in payback mode. The situation sets up for San Antonio, too. The Pistons are thin in the bakcourt with Reggie Jackson and now Luke Kennard out. Derrick Rose and Bruce Brown are less than 100 percent. Blake Griffin is batting aliments, too. The Spurs are off a loss to the Mavericks, while the Pistons just destroyed the Wizards, 132-102, this past Thursday. The Pistons are 2-8-1 ATS following a victory. Detroit also has been miserable as a road 'dog posting a 3-11-1 ATS mark the past 15 times in that role.
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| 12-27-19 | Washington State +3 v. Air Force | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 5 m | Show |
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You couldn't ask for a bigger contrast in styles with Air Force a top rushing team and Washington State a great passing team. The Cougars led the nation in passing with Anthony Gordon putting up better numbers than any QB, including Joe Burrow. Gordon has a slew of talented wideouts. Air Force is better versus the run than pass. The Falcons are used to running teams in the Mountain West Conference. Their pass defensive numbers look better than what their talent level is since they played Colgate along with heavily ground-oriented Army and Navy. Air Force doesn't have the depth in the secondary to hang with Washington State. The Falcons also lack the necessary strong pass rush. If you discount games against Colorado State and Hawaii, the Falcons only had 13 sacks. Washington State is better stopping the run than the pass. The Cougars have covered 15 of the last 22 times they've been underdogs.
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| 12-26-19 | Pittsburgh -10.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 34-30 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 51 m | Show |
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Pittsburgh isn't fancy. The Panthers are meat and potatoes. But they should destroy Eastern Michigan being a Power Five team dropping way down in class to play a Mid-American Conference team in the Quick Lane Bowl. The bar is not set high here for the Panthers. Eastern Michigan can't stop the run and is going to have problems keeping the Pitt defense off quarterback Mike Glass III. The Panthers are 5-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards. The Eagles have yielded at least 230 yards on the ground in four of their last five games. Led by Jaylen Twyman, who has 10 1/2 sacks, the Panthers have recorded 49 sacks and 98 tackles for losses. So Pittsburgh should control the trenches. The key is motivation. Will the Panthers get up for this opponent? They certainly should. Panthers coach Pat Narduzzi is 0-3 in bowls games at Pittsburgh. The Panthers were nipped, 14-13, by Stanford in their bowl game last year. The Panthers won't have a better chance than this to get Narduzzi his first bowl win.
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| 12-23-19 | Spurs +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 145-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
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The Spurs had started to turn around their disappointing season going 5-3 with victories against the Clippers and Rockets until losing, 134-109, at home to the Clippers. That was an embarrassing loss. I see the Spurs recovering against the Grizzlies. Memphis is 5-3 in its last eight games. Do note, though, that four of those victories have been against the Warriors, Wizards, Suns and Kings. Those are all bad teams. The Spurs have revenge motivation for a 113-109 home loss to the Grizzlies last month plus the humiliation of falling to the Clippers this past Saturday. This is priced around pick. I want Gregg Popovich going for me.
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| 12-22-19 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 128-104 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
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The Nuggets have won five in a row and LeBron James is probably going to miss his first game of the season due to a muscle strain in his back. Because of these factors the line is greatly reduced from what it normally would be with LA at home. I will lay the short number not just because of the value factor, but because of the spot and my belief the Lakers will step up big time here to prove they can win at home without James. Let's start with the Nuggets. Their five consecutive victories have all come at home. They are a different team on the road. Denver is 1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS in its past five away matchups with the lone winner coming against the pathetic Knicks. On to the Lakers. They are back from a road trip that concluded Thursday with a loss to the Bucks, the best team in basketball. The Lakers also lost to the Pacers before that game, perhaps looking ahead to the marquee matchup against the Bucks. Now the Lakers are home where they have covered 13 of the last 18 times. LA hasn't lost three games in a row all season. The Lakers are going to dig in hard here. Obviously it's a monster bonus if James somehow plays. But I am not anticipating that. I am anticipating Kyle Kuzma, their third-best player, to be back in action tonight. The Lakers still have the best player on the court in Anthony Davis. Look for prideful veterans Dwight Howard and Rajon Rondo to spark a strong bench effort, too, after each of them played poorly versus the Bucks.
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| 12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 64 h 48 m | Show |
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San Diego State's defense is going to trump Central Michigan's offense. The Aztec's finished in the top five in the nation in run defense, scoring defense and total defense. SDS held foes to 12.8 points a game. No team reached 24 points on the Aztecs, who also held all but three of their 12 opponents to 85 or fewer rushing yards. Central Michigan was stopped by Miami of Ohio, 26-21, in the MAC title game. San Diego State is a much better defensive team than Miami of Ohio. The Chippewas are 0-5 when rushing for fewer than 135 yards. Wyoming was the lone team to rush for more than 135 yards versus SDS. The Aztecs have enough offense to cover this number. The key for them is they don't turn the ball over averaging just 0.6 per game. San Diego State shouldn't lack motivation either coming off an embarrassing 27-0 loss to Ohio, another MAC team, in last year's Frisco Bowl. SDS also lost two years ago to Army in the Armed Forces Bowl so its seniors should have plenty of incentive. The venue - Albuquerque, N.M. - favors SDS, too. Not only is it closer for SDS fans to travel to but it's in high altitude and the Aztecs have experience playing there having met New Mexico two seasons ago.
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| 12-20-19 | Buffalo -4.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 31-9 | Win | 100 | 263 h 29 m | Show |
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Buffalo holds key edges in the trenches both in running the ball and stopping the run. The Bulls' Jaret Patterson is one of the best backs in the nation. He rushed for 1,626 yards and accounted for 18 TD's. Charlotte has a good RB, too, in Benny LeMay. The Bulls, though, rank fourth in the nation in stopping the run, while the 49ers are 99th in run defense. Charlotte has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has faced a winning opponent. The 49ers won seven games to qualify for their first bowl game. But six of those victories were achieved against weak team and the other win came against Marshall when the Thundering Herd were in a flat spot. The 49ers are 5-13 ATS the past 18 times playing a team outside of Conference USA. Buffalo played in a bowl game last season. So the Bulls have bowl experience. Charlotte doesn't, which is a huge negative.
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| 12-19-19 | Nets v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
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At 10-16, the Spurs are off to their worst start under Gregg Popovich. Lately, though, the Spurs have shown life. They have won four of their last seven games, including defeating the Clippers and Rockets during this time frame. San Antonio should be 5-2 during this span with two victories against the Rockets. However, the Spurs blew a 25-point lead against Houston on Monday when they last played. The Spurs have had two days to deal with that loss and get psyched for this matchup. They draw Brooklyn coming off a 108-101 overtime road victory against New Orleans. The Spurs hold a frontcourt edge on the Nets with LaMarcus Aldridge and their guards have picked up their play. There also is a mental hurdle the Nets face here. San Antonio has owned the Nets at home beating them 16 times in a row! The Nets haven't won at San Antonio since 2002.
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| 12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
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Gregg Popovich has been coaching the Spurs for 23 years. He's never had a season this bad. San Antonio is 10-15. The Spurs are even worse against the spread at 6-18-1 (25 percent), which is the worst ATS mark in the NBA. Houston is one of the best teams in the NBA. Yet when these teams last met two weeks ago in San Antonio, the Spurs won in double overtime, 135-133. The Rockets blew a 22-point lead in that game. That was also the game where the officials' mistakenly waved off James Harden's slam dunk basket. It was the most frustrating and controversial game of the season for the Rockets. Now Houston gets its chance for revenge. The Rockets not only are thirsty for payback, but they are off a surprising home loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. San Antonio is off an overtime victory against Phoenix also on Saturday. That game, though, was played in the high elevation of Mexico City. It was the fourth straight overtime game for the Spurs. So San Antonio could have a fatigue issue especially after playing Mexico City. The Spurs have failed to cover 17 of the last 21 times after a victory. The Rockets have a monster edge in the backcourt with James Harden and Russell Westbrook, while Clint Capela can hold his own in the frontcourt against the Spurs' big people.
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| 12-15-19 | Patriots -9 v. Bengals | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 73 h 26 m | Show |
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Can the Patriots be beaten for a third straight game? Can the Bengals pull this off? You have to be kidding. Go back to 2002. That's the last time the Patriots lost three in a row. The Patriots have covered 71 percent of the time off a loss during the last 17 years under Bill Belichick going 41-17. The Patriots' last two losses have come to the Texans and Chiefs. The Bengals have the worst record in the NFL. New England has feasted on bottom-feeders posting seven victories by at least 14 points. Cincinnati is the second-lowest scoring team in the NFL averaging 15.2 points a game. Not once have the Bengals scored more than 23 points in a game. New England has the top defense in the NFL giving up the fewest yards, points and yards per play. Cincinnati also ranks second-to-last in total defense, last in rushing defense and gives up the most yards per play. Tom Brady is far more effective when his ground attack is working. New England isn't going to lack motivation either. Not only do the Patriots need to win to maintain a high playoff seeding, but there is bad blood after the the Bengals brought up a new "Spygate" mention to the attention of the NFL. |
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| 12-13-19 | Knicks v. Kings -8 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
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Quietly and well below the radar screen, the Kings have been one of the hottest point spread teams in the NBA covering 15 of their last 19 for 79 percent! The Knicks find themselves in a very rare situation - being in a letdown spot. New York halted a 10-game losing streak with a 124-122 road overtime victory against Golden State on Wednesday. The Knicks are 6-21 ATS following a spread cover. They haven't won consecutive games all season. The key here is are the Kings good enough to cover this high of a number? They haven't been this large of a favorite all season. I believe the Kings can given how well they are playing and the situation. Sacramento has won three in a row knocking off the Mavericks, Rockets and Thunder. Those teams are all considerably better than the Knicks with the Rockets and Mavericks rating among the best teams in the Western Conference. Marvin Bagley III is back for the Kings. He's their best big man. The Kings play their next four games on the road starting Sunday. So motivation shouldn't be a problem. New York is playing its third road game in four days. The Knicks rate with the Cavaliers, Hawks and Warriors as one of the four worst teams in the NBA. Even after scoring 124 points against the Warriors, the Knicks rank last in the NBA in scoring, field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Sacramento had no problem with the Knicks at Madison Square Garden last month beating them, 113-92. It was the Kings' fourth win in a row against New York.
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| 12-12-19 | Mavs -5 v. Pistons | Top | 122-111 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
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First, note the venue. This game is being played in Mexico City. That's a plus for Dallas, which is much closer to Mexico than Detroit. The Mavericks also have several Spanish speaking players, including star point guard Luka Doncic. The Mavericks have been dominant away from home going 15-3-1 ATS (83 percent) in their last 19 road games. Dallas is at least one level, if not two levels, higher than Detroit. The Mavericks last played on Sunday. So they've had ample time to rest, prepare and stew over their last game, a home loss to the Kings that ended a five-game win streak. The Pistons have played a weaker schedule. They've met only three teams from the Western Conference, all of whom have losing records.
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| 12-11-19 | Lakers -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 96-87 | Win | 100 | 18 h 40 m | Show |
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The Lakers are among the three best teams in basketball. They are a sizzling 14-1 in their last 15 games and unbeaten away from Staples Center going 11-0. I rate the Lakers close to three levels higher than Orlando. The Magic have consistently failed to step up against elite competition going 1-9 versus above average teams. The Lakers should be focused and energized having last played on Sunday. The Magic have failed to cover in five of their last seven home games. |
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| 12-09-19 | Raptors -5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
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Toronto is in stop-the-pain mode on a season-long three-game losing streak. Those losses, however, have occurred to the Heat in overtime, Rockets and 76ers. Now the Raptors step way down in class taking on a lottery foe they have owned. Toronto has won won the past 10 meetings against the Bulls, including, 108-84, earlier this season at Chicago. It was the fifth straight time the Raptors have covered at the Bulls. The defending champions know how to get it done against weaker opponents. Toronto is 13-3 ATS the past 16 times when facing below .500 teams. The Raptors may not have injured guard Fred VonVleet against the Bulls. He hurt his knee in Sunday's 110-104 loss to the 76ers. But starting point guard Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka are back for Toronto. Toronto matches up well to the Bulls. The Raptors rank No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage while the Bulls are the second-worst shooting team in the league.The Bulls also played on Sunday and suffered a tough 110-105 overtime loss to the Heat on the road squandering a one-point lead in the final seconds. Rarely do the Bulls play well in back-to-back games.
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| 12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 10 m | Show |
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I don't see where LSU is a touchdown better than Georgia at a neutral site. George has the better defense and is more experienced in big game neutral site games than LSU. The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine neutral site games. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 in the country in scoring defense giving up 10.4 points a game. They haven't surrendered more than 20 points all season! As good as LSU is offensively, Georgia has the better rushing numbers and gives up 2.7 yards per run, while the Tigers yield 3.8 yards a run. When it comes to passing, Georgia allows 9.6 yards per completion compared to LSU's 13 yards per completion. Georgia needs a victory here to reach the College Football Playoffs, while LSU already is in. So more is at stake for the Bulldogs.
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| 12-06-19 | Wizards v. Heat -9.5 | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
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Miami is 8-0 at home this season. Going back to last season, the Heat are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 home contests. Miami shoots 51.4 percent from the floor at home compared to 45.1 percent away. The Heat give up 17 fewer points per game than the Wizards. Washington is 12-29-1 ATS the last 42 times it has been on the road facing an above .500 home foe. Not only is Miam vastly superior to Washington - which this point spread reflects - but it draws the Wizards being in a highly favorable situational spot. The line doesn't fully reflect that. Washington is off maybe its best game of the season, a 119-113 home win against the 76ers. The Wizards had lost three in a row prior to that victory. The Heat are off a disappointing, 112-93, road loss to the Celtics from Wednesday. Miami is 18-7-1 ATS following a non-cover. The Heat also are 14-2-1 ATS the past 17 times when going against a below .500 opponent. The Wizards are shorthanded in the middle with center Thomas Bryant sidelined with a foot injury. In addition, point guard Isaiah Thomas is dealing with a calf injury.
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| 12-05-19 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -130 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
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The Cowboys are the more well-rounded team with far better skill position talent than the Bears. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot rate major edges on Mitch Trubisky and David Montgomery. The Bears haven't recovered from their London loss to the Raiders. They are 3-5 in their last eight games with their lone victories during this span coming against the Giants and Lions twice. Those teams have a combined record of 5-18. Trubisky has only played well against the Lions. He's been a stiff against every other opponent. Chicago's defense is down from last season and its offense has been hijacked by Trubisky's lack of progress. Chicago's run defense is prey to Elliott likley missing run-stuffing Akiem Hicks and linebacker Danny Trevathan. The Cowboys are the more motivated team. Dallas is that rare team that rates high in both offensive and defensive yards. The Cowboys average the most yards per game in the NFL and they surrender the eighth-fewest yards.
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| 12-04-19 | Kings v. Blazers -3 | Top | 116-127 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
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You wouldn't know it from their Tuesday performance against the Clippers, but the Trail Blazers are back on track after multiple frontcourt injuries helped cause a rough 2-10 stretch last month. Portland had rebounded to win three in a row until getting blown out, 117-97, on the road by the Clippers last night. The Clippers are 13-1 at home and one of the five best teams in the NBA. The Kings are a likely lottery team again. They are missing their second-best scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and top big man, Marvin Bagley III. Both are injured and not expected to return to the lineup until later this month. In addition. Bogdan Bogdanovic is dealing with a sore hamstring. He's the Kings' fourth-leading scorer and top reserve player. The Trail Blazers have fortified their All-Star backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum by taking a chance on Carmelo Anthony, who has played well. Center Hassan Whiteside is having a strong bounce back year, too, for the Trail Blazers after leaving Miami. The one positive to the Trail Blazers' loss to the Clippers last night was not a single Portland player logged more than 30 minutes. Portland had not played in three days prior to the loss to the Clippers. So there should not be a fatigue factor. Note, too, that Sacramento has lost during its last 11 visits to Portland.
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| 12-03-19 | UTEP +5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 56-59 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
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Yes, home-court and revenge are worth something. Just not this much. The teams met three weeks ago and Texas El-Paso won by 15 points, 65-50. New Mexico State had trouble handling UTEP's press. The Aggies have played better since then. But the Miners also are playing well. They are 5-0 on the season and their bench strength just got a huge boost with Kaden Archie, a transfer from TCU, now eligible. The Miners won the first matchup despite Bryson Williams limited to just 17 minutes due to foul trouble. Williams is the best player on the court averaging 18 points and 6.8 rebounds a game. He still scored 19 points and pulled down eight rebounds in the first meeting. UTEP has covered eight of its last nine nonconference games for 89 percent. |
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| 12-01-19 | Patriots -3 v. Texans | Top | 22-28 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 56 m | Show |
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The Patriots' defense is putting up numbers not seen since the 2000 Ravens. I don't see the Texans, with their weak offensive line, lack of a ground attack and poor coaching, being able to solve New England's defense. New England is getting better offensively as more offensive linemen and wide receivers get healthy. The Texans have a slow, banged-up secondary and their pass rush took a massive hit with J.J. Watt sidelined for the season. Bill Belichick has had Bill O'Brien's number. The Patriots are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS versus the Texans since 2015. Belichick won't be adverse to running up a score, too. There is bad blood between these two teams after the Patriots filed tampering charges after the Texans tried to lure New England's director of player personnel, Nick Caserio, to be their general manager.
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| 11-30-19 | Nuggets -4 v. Kings | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
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This line is short. Denver is far superior to Sacramento. The Nuggets also are healthy. The Kings are missing their second-leading scorer, De'Aaron Fox, and best big man, Marvin Bagley III. The Nuggets enter this matchup well-rested and hot, winners of six in a row. Denver has been idle since Tuesday. The Kings are in a tougher situational spot even though they are the home team having just returned from a four-game East Coast trip. Denver is 5-1 on the road this season. One of those victories was against the Kings, 101-94, during the second week of the season when Fox was playing for Sacramento. The Nuggets won that matchup by seven points despite an off-game from their best player, Nikola Jokic, and making just 36.7 percent of their field goal attempts. Taking on the Kings always holds special meaning for Denver coach Michael Malone. He was fired by the Kings after coaching them for just two seasons. I regard Malone as one of the better coaches in the league. He has the Nuggets playing their finest defense ever, ranking No. 1 in the NBA in fewest points per game. The Nuggets have covered eight of the past 10 times against the Kings.
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| 11-30-19 | UNLV v. Nevada -7 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
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Nevada Reno is the superior team, is home and in strong revenge mode after blowing a 23-0 lead to UNLV last season in losing, 34-29, in this annual rivalry matchup. The Wolf Pack eased up in that game and it cost them. That won't be the case this season. Nevada coach Jay Norvell has done everything to fire up his team, including bringing in former Nevada coach Chris Ault to speak to the team. The Wolf Pack should enter this matchup with a lot of confidence having just upset San Diego State and Fresno State both on the road during their past two games. UNLV, by contrast, lost by 29 points at Fresno State and lost by three points to San Diego State at home. UNLV is off an emotional victory against San Jose State. That was the final game played at Sam Boyd Stadium and the Rebels were fired-up for it. Now reality sinks in. The Rebels aren't going to a bowl game for a fifth straight year and coach Tony Sanchez has been fired.
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