I'm surprised William & Mary didn't open a mid-range favorite. I rate the Tribe much better than Hampton.

William & Mary has a superior record - 9-14 overall, 4-6 in the Colonial Athletic Association - compared to the Pirates' 5-17 mark and 2-8 CAA record.

The Tribe also proved that by defeating the Pirates, 81-65, as an 8-point home favorite on Jan. 11.

William & Mary is statistically better than Hampton, too, on both sides of the ball. The Pirates rank last in the CAA in shooting percentage and second-to-last in defensive field goal percentage. They also rate last in the league in rebounding margin. But where William & Mary holds a significant edge is 3-point shooting. The Tribe is 38th in the country in 3-point accuracy while Hampton is 344th in 3-pt defense.

The major concern about the Tribe is their lack of road victories. Some of this concern can be eased by the Tribe upsetting UNC Wilmington as a 12-point road 'dog on Jan. 14. Hampton hasn't been a good home team either going 1-5 ATS in its last six home contests.

Anytime the better team is getting points, I'm seriously interested. That's the case here with Northern Illinois. The Huskies are 8-13, 4-4 in the Mid-American Conference. Western Michigan is 6-15, 2-6 in the MAC.

Northern Illinois is 3-1 in its last four games, with all three victories during this span coming as an underdog. This includes an impressive 10-point victory against 17-4 Kent State a week ago.

Western Michigan, by contrast, has lost four in a row. The Broncos also played Kent State and lost by eight points to the Golden Flashes.

Numerous trends all point to the Huskies as the right side. Northern Illinois has covered 15 of its last 22 road games and is 9-2 ATS the past 11 times versus sub .500 opponents.

Western Michigan is 3-9 ATS the last dozen times meeting a foe with a winning percentage below .400.

The underdog is 8-1 ATS the past nine times these teams have met.

This may seem like a lot of points to lay, but I find the gap between these two Summit League teams much wider than the point spread. So I'm on Oral Roberts.

The Eagles have the offense to easily blow out South Dakota, which is weak defensively. Oral Roberts averages 84.5 points. That's fifth-best in the country.

South Dakota ranks 264th defensively allowing 72.4 points per game. The Coyotes have even a worse statistical ranking in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Eagles reach triple-digits in this home game against the 10-12 Coyotes, who are 2-7 on the road.

Oral Roberts, which has won 17 of its last 18 games, is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 home games when facing a foe with a road winning percentage of less than .400. South Dakota has failed to cover in eight of its past 11 away games.

I don't see the Eagles keeping up with Oral Roberts. They've been held under 65 points in four of their last seven games despite playing in the Summit League, which is a high-scoring conference.

The Bengals are 3-0 against the Chiefs during the past 12 months. They beat them at Kansas City in the playoffs last season. They beat the Chiefs this season with Joe Burrow outplaying Patrick Mahomes. Now Mahomes isn't healthy dealing with a high ankle sprain.

It's time to give Cincinnati its full due. The Bengals are the best team in the AFC.

Cincinnati's underrated defense is peaking at the right time holding their last six opponents to less than 16 points a game. The high-powered Bills, with the second-most points and yards in the NFL, were held to 10 points by the Bengals.

Mahomes will try to gut it out, but the ankle injury will limit his mobility. One of the reasons Mahomes has emerged as the best quarterback in the league is his ability to make plays on the move. Now he's strictly a pocket passer because of the ankle injury.

Burrow is right up there with Mahomes - and he's healthy with better skill position weapons in Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The big question with the Bengals was how would their revamped offensive line hold up minus three starters? That question was answered against the Bills last Sunday when the Bengals dominated putting up 27 points, 412 yards and 30 first downs. Mixon had his best rushing game in more than two months.

Cincinnati has been the hottest point spread team since the middle of last season covering 21 of its last 26 games. The Bengals have covered 69 percent of their last 54 road games. The Chiefs are 1-8-1 ATS during their past 10 home games.

Since Dec. 28, the Bulls have beaten many teams much better than the Hornets. The list includes the Bucks, Nets, 76ers, Jazz, Warriors and Hawks. Chicago was riding a three-game winning and covering streak going into this past Tuesday's game against Indiana.

The Pacers were minus Tyrese Haliburton, their best all-around player, and had lost seven in a row. The Bulls built a 21-point lead and looked in full control. But the Pacers stunned the Bulls by scoring 70 points in the second half to win, 116-110.

Chicago has a chance for redemption now playing the Hornets. Not only are the Hornets terrible - with the third-worst record in the NBA at 13-36 - but they are banged-up and in a bad situational spot.

Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin are out for Charlotte. LaMelo Ball missed Charlotte's last game because of an ankle injury. He's questionable as is Gordon Hayward, who has a groin injury. Ball is the Hornets' leading scorer and top assists man. Oubre is the team's No. 3 scorer. Hayward ranks fifth on the team in scoring. Martin is a reliable rotation player.

The Hornets are 5-16 at home. They have lost 10 of their last 13 games.

Charlotte ranks 28th defensively giving up 119.1 points per game. That figure climbs to 123.8 points going by their last eight games. The Bulls rank fifth in the NBA in field goal percentage and free throw percentage.

The spot isn't good either for the Hornets. They just returned from a four-game, seven-day road trip that concluded Tuesday night in Phoenix with a 31-point loss to the Suns. Charlotte has lost and failed to cover during its past five home games.

Samford is the top team in the Southern Conference at 8-0. Furman is 6-2 in the league. Samford has won eight in a row. This should be a very close game so I find this point spread to be out of whack in this mid-range.

Samford is the superior defensive team. The Bulldogs also have back guard Ques Glover, their leading scorer. He returned to action this past Saturday after being out since Nov. 30. Glover really bolsters Samford's rotation. I don't believe the oddsmaker took that into enough consideration in making this line.

Furman has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has met an above .500 opponent.

This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor covering eight of the last 11 times.

Certain high profile schools get too much respect from the linesmaker. North Carolina falls into that group.

Yes, the Tar Heels are 14-6. However, they are 7-12-1 (37 percent) ATS.

Syracuse is coming on winning and covering five of its last seven games. The Orange are 10-3 SU, 9-4 ATS during their past 13 games. Only one of those losses was by more than seven points. The Orange are averaging 79.5 points in their last four games. They've scored at least 78 points in 10 of their past 12 games.

The Orange are at their point spread-best against strong competition covering five of the last six times when taking on an opponent with a winning percentage above .600.

North Carolina has been at its worst on the road. Not counting neutral site games, the Tar Heels are 1-4 SU and ATS away from home. Their only road victory came against 2-17 Louisville. North Carolina is 1-6-1 ATS in its past eight road contests versus foes with a winning home mark.

Sure it's a huge plus if Giannis Antetokounmpo can play having been out with knee soreness. But I see the motivated Bucks rolling past the Pistons even if Antetokounmpo can't go.

Milwaukee is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three of its last five games, including 114-102 to the Cavaliers this past Saturday. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS following a non-cover.

The Pistons are the worst team in the Eastern Conference. They are 1-6 in their last seven games. Detroit has lost by 12 or more points in seven of its last eight defeats.

There's also a situational factor working against Detroit. The Pistons just played in Paris this past Thursday where they were blown out by the Bulls, 126-108. So jet lag and concentration could be issues.

From a historical perspective the Bucks have dominated this series winning 15 of the last 16 times. Milwaukee is 2-0 versus Detroit this season with wins by two points and 25 points. Both of those victories were in Milwaukee. The Bucks are 7-1-1 ATS the past nine times meeting the Pistons in Detroit.

Kudos to Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars for staging the third biggest comeback in NFL postseason history in coming from 27 points down to nip the Chargers at home last week.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, their season ends here.

The rested Chiefs are 10-1 in their last 11 games, winners of a five in a row. Andy Reid-coached teams are 27-4 following a bye. History is against Jacksonville. Wild-card winners who pulled upsets are 17-29 (37 percent) ATS the following week.

The Jaguars are inexperienced in big games and overmatched by the Chiefs - on both sides of the ball.

Kansas City is the top offensive team in the NFL ranking first in points and total yards. Prior to edging the Chargers and Justin Herbert, 31-30, the Jaguars had faced three straight opponents with bad quarterbacks: Jets with Zach Wilson/Chris Streveler, Texans with Davis Mills/Jeff Driskel and Titans with third-stringer Josh Dobbs. The Jaguars faced six above average quarterbacks since Week 4 going against the Eagles, Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Cowboys and Chargers. Jacksonville surrendered an average of 31.1 points in those games.

Now the Jaguars draw Patrick Mahomes, who torched them for 333 passing yards and four touchdowns going 26-of-35 throwing in a 27-17 Week 10 home victory. The Chiefs netted 486 yards in that game, which is the most the Jaguars have allowed all season. The Chiefs built a 20-0 lead. They won't be coasting in this situation if they build up another early advantage.

I don't see Lawrence being able to keep up with Mahomes at this early stage of his career. The Chiefs showed tremendous defensive improvement, ranking 11th in total defense and No. 2 in sacks with 55. They also batted the most passes down from the line of scrimmage. Lawrence wasn't playing that well down the stretch until the second half against the Chargers. He had averaged 197.6 passing yards with a 1-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio during the last three weeks of the regular season, having trouble against the defenses of the Titans and Jets.

This is the game where Lawrence could really miss his injured left tackle Cam Robinson. Chris Jones produced 15 1/2 sacks and 29 quarterback hits for the Chiefs.

The 76ers are 3-0 on their five-game Western Conference road swing and playing well. But I see them getting tripped up by the Trail Blazers here. It's Philadelphia's fourth game in six days. The 76ers have failed to cover a spread during their last six games in Portland. 

The Trail Blazers are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games. Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games when facing an opponent that has a winning home record. 

Portland is playing well, too. The Trail Blazers won and covered both of their home games against the Mavericks this past Saturday and Sunday. They then played the Nuggets tough in Denver two days ago in a loss that had a misleading final score. 

Look for Portland to bounce back being home again catching the 76ers fat and happy. 

The Nets must prove they can win without Kevin Durant. Or at least beat bottom-feeders. This is their chance.

I see the Nets being highly motivated in this matchup against the Spurs, who are 1-8 in their last nine games, including losing five in a row.

Brooklyn had won 14 of 15 games. But then superstar Durant went down with a knee injury and the Nets lost to the Celtics - no shame in that - and then suffered an upsetting, 112-102, home loss to the Thunder this past Sunday. Ben Simmons didn't play in the loss to the Thunder because of back pain.

Simmons has been cleared to play in this game, which is a boost to the Nets' shrinking rotation. Not only do the Nets want to redeem themselves for losing to the Thunder, but this also is the start of a five-game road trip consisting of games against the Suns, Jazz, Warriors and 76ers. Brooklyn doesn't want to start out with a loss to the 13-31 Spurs. So the Nets should be focused.

The Nets give up 11 fewer points per game than San Antonio, which ranks last in all of the major defensive categories, including scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Spurs' defense has been especially bad lately. The Spurs are surrendering an average of 130.6 points during their last five games.

The Nets have covered five of the last six games in this series.

Even if Lamar Jackson were to play, the Ravens aren't in the Bengals' class. Jackson is sure to be rusty, too, having been out for more than five weeks. Jackson relies on his mobility and that is going to be affected, too, by his knee injury. If Jackson doesn't start, this line will move much higher.

The Bengals are the hottest team in the AFC winners of eight in a row. They are 10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.

Led by Joe Burrow, the Bengals have scored at least 27 points in seven of their last 11 games.

The Ravens have managed five touchdowns in their last 23 quarters. They haven't broken the 17-point barrier in their past six games.

It's not just the quarterback position where the Dolphins are hurting. They have injuries to their best offensive lineman, left tackle Terron Armstead, most elusive running back, Raheem Mostert, and their two stud wide receivers, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

There's just not enough healthy firepower for the Dolphins to stay within double-digits of the Bills.

Buffalo was a coin flip against the Chiefs away from going to the Super Bowl last season. The Bills are just as good - if not better - this season. They are No. 2 in points scored and No. 2 in fewest points allowed.

The Dolphins were life-and-death with the Joe Flacco-led Jets at home last week to even sneak into the playoffs. Miami has a negative point differential on the season. This is the Dolphins' first playoff appearance since 2016. They are just happy to be here.

Josh Allen put up 42 touchdowns for the Bills. The banged-up Dolphins can't match Buffalo's firepower.

The Bills have tremendous motivation to reach the Super Bowl for stricken teammate Damar Hamlin.

The point spread is high - but not high enough. Look for a Bills' blowout.

Abilene Christian hasn't lost consecutive games since Nov. 23, a span of 10 games. I like the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way against UT Rio Grande following a tough 74-72 home loss to Southern Utah, the highest scoring team in the nation. The Wildcats held the Thunderbirds 13 points under their season average, but shot 16 fewer free throws than Southern Utah and missed 20 of 25 3-point shots.

The Wildcats like to play a methodical style stressing defense. That should work far better against struggling Rio Grande, which has lost four in a row.

Abilene Christian ranks in the top 90 in scoring defense giving up 65.4 points per game. The Vaqueros rank 351st defensively, allowing 78.8 points. The Wildcats also commit fewer turnovers and are the better 3-point shooting team.

The spot is right for the Heat to cover this number. Miami is 5-3 in its last eight games. The only bad loss the Heat have during this span is to the Lakers on the road by three points. The other two defeats were to the 27-13 Nuggets on the road by five points and at home to the sizzling Nets by one point this past Sunday. 

There is no way Miami overlooks Oklahoma City, which is four games below .500. Not only have the Thunder won two in a row, but the Heat's next two games are both against the Bucks. So the Heat can not afford a home defeat to this lowly opponent.  

This is only the Thunder's third road matchup in their last 13 games. Oklahoma City is fat and happy having won its last two games, both at home against the Wizards and Mavericks, who were missing superstar Luka Doncic, two days ago. 

The Thunder have lost their last four road contests - falling to the Magic by 11, Hornets by 8, Cavaliers by 7 and Grizzlies by 21 for an average away loss of 11.7 points. 

Oklahoma City is 13-9 at home, but 5-13 on the road. 

Unbeaten Georgia had its scare in its last game, edging Ohio State by one point in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Day. The Bulldogs are 28-1 the past two seasons. During this two-year span, they have won by two touchdowns or more 86 percent of the time.

TCU has been a great story getting to the national title game after being projected as a middle-to-bottom tier Big 12 team. But the Horned Frogs are not in Georgia's class. That's obvious by this point spread. But are Bulldogs two touchdowns better than the Horned Frogs?

Yes, they are.

Georgia is elite on both sides of the ball. They also have far bigger game experience than the Horned Frogs.

The Bulldogs had one of greatest college defenses of all time last season. This season they ranked No. 2 in scoring defense holding foes to 12.8 points. They had the nation's No. 2 run defense and ranked ninth in total defense. TCU can't match that. The Horned Frogs ranked 74th in total defense, 83rd in pass defense and 57th in scoring defense. They don't have NFL-caliber talent at many defensive spots like Georgia does.

Georgia QB Stetson Bennett is going to produce lots of points against TCU. Bennett really came into his own this season ranking in the top-10 in passing yards and completion percentage.

Max Duggan has been outstanding for TCU. But this is the toughest defense by far that he's seen. The Horned Frogs may not have their star running back, Kendre Miller, who is questionable for the game.

The Bulldogs defeated Oregon by 46 points, South Carolina by 41, Florida by 22, Tennessee by 14, Mississippi State by 26 and LSU by 20. Those were some serious whippings. I see Georgia's class difference showing up here.

The Bills are definitely a touchdown better than the Patriots, especially playing at home. Buffalo has defeated New England the past three times by an average of 18.6 points, while outgaining them by average of 143.3 yards. 

Buffalo ranks No. 2 in total yards and fourth in scoring at 28 points a game. The Bills also rank No. 2 in scoring defense and fifth in total defense. The Patriots rank 26th in total offense and are below average in scoring even though their defense has contributed seven touchdowns. Only once in their last 10 games have the Patriots gained more than 328 yards, being held to fewer than 300 yards seven times during this span. 
New England has a good defense, but statistically it is not as good as Buffalo's.

Not only has the Patriots' scoring total been skewed by their seven defensive touchdowns - most in the league since 2017 - but their defensive numbers have been bolstered by having had the good fortune to have played six backup quarterbacks. New England achieved seven of its eight victories going against the following quarterbacks: Mitchell Trubisky, Jacoby Brissett, Sam Ehlinger, Colt McCoy, Zach Wilson twice and Teddy Bridgewater/Skylar Thompson. 

So I find the Bills to be much superior to the Patriots. However, there is a key mental component here: How will the Bills react to their safety, Damar Hamlin, going into cardiac arrest this past Monday night against the Bengals? 

This is a much tougher question to answer. But I believe the Bills will come out hard and try to win big for Hamlin. His condition has shown much improvement allowing the Bills to concentrate. Mario Hamlin, Damar's father, told the Buffalo players to focus on the game because that's what his son would want. The Bills also have less wear and tear on them from Monday's game being called off after just nine minutes rather than the Patriots, who have been involved in close games each of the last three weeks. 

Surprised the spread is so low here? Don't be. The Bulls are in a tough situational spot. Chicago just ended the 76ers' 11-game home win streak, beating Philadelphia, 126-112, on Friday night. The 76ers were minus injured Joel Embiid.

The Bulls also ended the Nets' 12-game win streak with a 121-112 win this past Wednesday.

Back-to-back impressive victories for the Bulls. But now they fly back to Chicago where they'll have the rested Jazz awaiting them.

The Jazz halted a five-game losing streak by rolling past the Rockets, 131-114, on the road this past Thursday. Utah had lost its previous five games by an average of three points with the five defeats occurring by a combined 15 points.

Lauri Markkanen scored a career-high 49 points to lead Utah past Houston. Now Markkanen faces his former team. The Bulls are not only playing without rest, but this is their third game in four days and fourth game in six days.

The Bulls are reliant on their 3-point shooting. Zach LaVine hit 11 of 13 3-pointers against the 76ers. Utah, though, ranks in the top-10 in 3-point defense.

The Hawks are in stop-the-pain mode. They've lost four in a row. Two of those losses were in heart-breaking fashion. One was a double overtime road loss to the Warriors in their last game played two days ago. The other was a one-point loss to the sizzling Nets. 

The Kings return to Sacramento off a 117-115 road win against the Jazz on Tuesday night, scoring the winning basket with 0.4 seconds to play. 
Sacramento's concentration may be off along with a letdown factor following last night's narrow victory. The Kings haven't been home since Dec. 30. This marks their third game in four days and they are coming from Utah's high altitude. It's also the Kings' sixth game in nine days so there is a fatigue factor against them. 

The Kings have failed to cover in their last four home games. The Hawks have won the last three meetings between the two teams, including scoring a 115-106 home win on Nov. 23. 

This is a very low total as befitting two elite defenses. Both teams are 11-2. Mississippi State gives up the fourth-fewest points in the nation at 54.5 points. Tennessee surrenders only 53.2 points per game, third-best in the country.

Scoring is going to be at a premium here so I'll gladly accept this many points with the underdog Bulldogs in what shapes up to be a very low-scoring matchup.

Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in its last five games versus above .500 foes.

I see the wrong team being favored here. Both teams are off bad losses in their last game. But there's a difference.

Ohio lost 17-7 to Toledo in the Mid-American Conference championship game. The Bobcats displayed a lack of offense minus Kurtis Rourke, their star quarterback. They could manage only seven points and 262 yards in the MAC title game without Rourke, who is out for the season with a knee injury. Rourke was the MAC Offensive Player of the Year and easily Ohio's most important player.

Wyoming let up after clinching a bowl spot losing its last two games to Boise State by three points and getting blown out by Fresno State in its last game. 

I'm expecting a much better performance from the Cowboys, who have won their last three bowl games and are well-coached under Craig Bohl. The Cowboys beat Kent State, another MAC school, in their bowl game last season, 52-38. 

Ohio is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 non-conference games. 

Wyoming has the superior defense giving up 23.4 points a game. Ohio gives up 28.4 points. The Bobcats rank 113th in total defense and 130th in pass defense. 

So what do the Mavericks and Luka Doncic do for an encore after coming from nine points down with 33 seconds left in regulation to beat the Knicks in overtime with Doncic producing 60 points, 21 rebounds and 10 assists?

The answer is they don't have an encore. Instead the Mavericks suffer a massive letdown hosting the Rockets, who have the worst record in the Western Conference.

It's going to be difficult for the Mavericks to come down from the high of that improbable victory against the Knicks on Tuesday and Doncic's historic night. Prior to that game, teams trailing by nine points with under 35 seconds left were 0-13,884 during the last 20 years, according to research compiled by ESPN Stats and Info.

The Mavericks have been terrible as mid-sized-to-big favorites. They are 3-15-1 ATS when laying 5 or more points. They also are 1-8-1 ATS the past 10 times against sub .500 foes.

The Rockets are capable of springing upsets. They have defeated the Bucks, Suns and Bulls during their last nine games. Houston shouldn't lack motivation after getting buried by the Celtics in their last games two days ago.

Houston has covered in four of its last five visits to Dallas.

When last spotted, Coastal Carolina was losing 45-26 to Troy in the Sun Belt Conference title game. The Chanticleers were hammered by James Madison, 47-7, in their previous game before losing to Troy. That put Coastal Carolina's ATS record to 2-8 against opponents with a winning record. 

Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach, too, for this game. Its head coach, Jamey Chadwell, left Coastal Carolina on Dec. 4 to become head coach at Liberty. The Chanticleers also will be without its best offensive lineman, Willie Lampkin, and top pass rusher, Josiah Stewart.  

East Carolina played a tougher schedule than Coastal Carolina and has a more explosive offense behind five-year veteran Horton Ahlers. The Pirates rank 24th in total yards. They've committed only two turnovers! Coastal Carolina ranks 101st in scoring defense allowing 30.1 points, which is what East Carolina averages per game. The Chanticleers are 124th in pass defense. 

The Pirates are 13-5-1 ATS against above .500 teams. They have the more stable coaching staff, too, under Mike Houston. 

I don't see Kwahi Leonard and Paul George allowing the Clippers to lose to the Pistons. LA was on a 5-1 SU and ATS run until its last game - a 119-114 loss to the hot 76ers on the road. The Clippers blew a 20-point lead.

Now the Clippers are stepping way down in class. Detroit has the worst record in the NBA. The Pistons have lost five in a row. The Pistons have lost by six or more points in 13 of their last 14 losses. The Clippers should maintain their full intensity after blowing a 20-point lead in their last game.

The Clippers are 11-4 ATS the past 15 times versus opponents with a winning percentage below .400.

The Clippers rank No. 3 on defense. They give up 10 points fewer per game than the Pistons, who rank 29th defensively.

The collapse of the Rams from Super Bowl champions to one of the worst teams in football is complete. They are the Rams in name only. There's really nothing Sean McVay can do with such limited weaponry and a mediocre defense that is without Aaron Donald. 

Russell Wilson had his best performance of the season when he last played two weeks ago throwing for three TD's and 247 yards in a 34-28 loss to the Chiefs. Wilson rates a strong edge on Baker Mayfield and a Rams attack that ranks 30th in rushing, has backup wide receivers and has gone through 12 different offensive line combinations with scrubs manning all the spots. 

Denver has one of the best defenses in the league ranking No. 3 in total yards and scoring defense. 

The Rams managed only 156 yards last Monday against a Packers defense that isn't nearly as good as Denver's. The Rams have also become mediocre on defense giving up 24 or more points in five of their last six games. 

No Tyler Lockett, but the Seahawks still have enough firepower to compete against the high-powered Chiefs with Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker, DK. Metcalf, Noah Fant and Marquise Goodwin. The Seahawks were averaging 28.3 points in their last three games before having to face the 49ers' top-ranked defense.

The Seahawks are in must-win, desperation mode after going 1-4 in their last five games. None of Seattle's last six losses, though, have been by more than eight points.

The Chiefs win, but don't cover spreads. Since Week 2, they are 10-3, but just 2-10-1 ATS. Kansas City is 0-5-1 ATS the past six times laying more than seven points.

Pete Carroll has done one of his best coaching jobs. The Seahawks are on a mini-bye having last played Thursday. I expect Carroll to have a good game plan. The extra rest certainly can't hurt either.

This bowl game is a real letdown for Baylor, which beat Mississippi in the Sugar Bowl last season and had high expectations this season. Those expectations were not met as the Bears finished just 6-6. 

Air Force is one of the most unique and difficult teams to defend and practice against because the Falcons run the triple-option. The Falcons are the No. 1 rushing team in the nation. They have the third-leading rusher in the country, fullback Brad Roberts, and quarterback Haaziq Daniels, who has accounted for 20 touchdowns while averaging more than 20 yards per completion. 

Air Force is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 non-conference games because the Falcons are so unique and hard to prepare against. Baylor is just OK stopping the run. That's not good enough especially when combined with a perceived lack of motivation.

Baylor averages 33.6 points a game. I just don't see the Bears having the ball that much. Air Force led the nation in time of possession at 36:22. No team limited the opposition to fewer plays than Air Force. Look for the Falcons to control the ball, eat clock keeping Baylor's offense from getting into any kind of rhythm. 

The Bills are in a perfect spot to exact their revenge for an oddball, 21-19, road loss to the Dolphins back in Week 3. Buffalo lost to Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by 285 yards. That game was played in brutally humid South Florida conditions back in September.

This matchup is just the opposite with a winter storm watch issued. Cold, possibly heavy snow and gusting winds are in the forecast. The warm-weather Dolphins with their warm-weather QB, Tua Tagovailoa, are not equipped for this type of weather element. The Dolphins rely on precision passing timing with Tagovailoa getting the ball out fast to speedsters Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tagovailoa has never even played in temperatures below 37 degrees.

The Dolphins have been exposed as big-game frauds the past two weeks by the 49ers and Chargers. They managed just a combined 521 total yards of offense in those games. The Chargers were minus several of their best defenders, including safety Derwin James and pass rusher Joey Bosa.

MIami is giving 31.4 points on the road this season while going 1-5 ATS in their last six away matchups.

Josh Allen is much more comfortable in cold weather games. I expect the Bills to score against a mediocre Miami defense and the Dolphins' offense unable to counterattack.

Both teams are 11-2, are conference champions and each own 10-game win streaks. Troy won the Sun Belt. Texas San Antonio captured Conference USA.

The difference is Troy continues to be underrated by the linesmaker. The Trojans are 10-3 ATS. I believe they should be favored in this Cure Bowl matchup in Orlando, Fla.

Troy has the necessary defense to slow down the Roadrunners, who average 38.7 points. The Trojans rank eighth in scoring defense giving up 17.5 points per game and are 19th in total defense giving up 325.3 yards a game. The Trojans recorded 39 sacks, bad news for San Antonio's sixth-year QB Frank Harris. Linebacker Carlton Martial was the best defensive player in the Sun Belt.

The Roadrunners don't have nearly as good a defense as Troy, nor do they have the bowl pedigree having lost each of the past two seasons in bowl games. Troy has won its past four bowl games.

The Trojans got their offense in gear behind QB Gunnar Watson and running back KImani Vidal. The Trojans averaged 42.3 points in their last three games. The Roadrunners rank 90th in total defense and 101st in pass defense.

I like the Cavaliers to cover against the Spurs even if they remain without Donovan Mitchell and Kevin Love. So I'm going to take an early position on them anticipating the line would climb if Mitchell were to play.

Cleveland blew a 17-point lead to the Thunder, but still won by eight points this past Saturday despite not having Michell and Love.

The Spurs are on a min-winning streak having beat the Rockets and upset the Heat this past Saturday on the road. But the Spurs still are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games and own the worst home mark in the NBA at 4-10.

San Antonio is a below average rebounding team. The Spurs also give up the most points in the NBA. The Cavaliers should dominate the boards and inside scoring with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. The Spurs have been without their best rebounder and shot blocker, Jakob Poeltl, who has missed the past five games with a knee injury.

Cleveland has covered during each of its last four visits to San Antonio.

The Dolphins are 8-1 SU, 6-3 when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes a game. The one loss came this past Sunday at San Francisco when Miami ran into the top defense in the league.

The Chargers give up the third-most points in the NFL. They are likely to face the Dolphins' record-setting wide receiver tandem of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle without safety Derwin James and cornerback Bryce Callahan. James is in the discussion for best safety in the league. Miami had produced 30 or more points in four straight games prior to the 49ers.

The Chargers aren't going to be able to slow down Miami. Justin Herbert has too many injuries around him to keep up with Miami's high-powered offense. LA is averaging 21.4 points in its last seven games.

LA has not defeated an above .500 team all season. The step up is too high for the Chargers.

I don't get Cal Poly being favored here even though the Mustangs are home.

Portland State has a winning record, has beaten Oregon State twice and is the 10th-highest scoring team in the country averaging 85.3 points.

The Vikings have covered 10 of their last 14 road games. They are battle tested having played some tough teams, including Gonzaga, and hold a backcourt edge with Jorell Saterfield and Cameron Parker. Those two are combining for nearly 32 points a game.

Cal Poly shoots much worse from the floor than Portland State and ranks 313th in scoring. The Mustangs average 19 fewer points per game than the Vikings.

In the Zig and Zag world of the NBA, this spot sets up for the Jazz. Utah knocked off the Warriors by one point at home on Wednesday, but then the Jazz were beaten by an aroused Timberwolves squad, 118-108, last night. It was emotional for Minnesota because of Rudy Gobert returning back to Utah to face his old teammates.

The Jazz are 10-3-2 ATS following a double-digit home loss.

Denver, on the other hand, stole a victory at Portland last night, 121-120, on Jamal Murray's 3-pointer in the final second. Denver is 8-19 ATS following a victory.

It's a plus if the Jazz get back Lauri Markkanen, who missed last night's game due to illness. But back for Utah is point guard Mike Conley.

Death, taxes and the Bruins beating the Coyotes. Those are about the only three certain things in life. 

Boston has defeated Arizona 19 straight times. 

I'd be shocked if the Bruins didn't make it 20 in a row against the Coyotes, who haven't defeated Boston in 12 years. The Bruins are tied for the most points in the NHL. They rank first defensively and second in goals scored per game. 

The key question is can Boston beat Arizona by more than one goal so as to reduce laying such high vigorish? 

Yes. This is the Coyotes' first home game after a record-tying 14 consecutive road games that began back on Nov. 5. Not surprisingly, Arizona ran out of gas losing its last six games with the most recent defeat occurring two days ago to Edmonton by six goals. This marks the Coyotes' fifth game in nine days. They also have the distraction of finally being home after being gone close to five weeks. 

The Bruins rolled past the Coyotes, 6-3, at home in the first meeting between the two teams this season. Boston has won by multiple goals in 11 of its last 12 victories. 

Josh Jacobs, Davonte Adams and Maxx Crosby have lifted the Raiders back into playoff contention leading Las Vegas to three straight victories. The Raiders got hot last season to sneak into the playoffs and they're showing signs of repeating that this season.

The Rams, on the other hand, are as dead as Jimmy Hoffa.

Sean McVay thinks so little of backup quarterbacks Bryce Perkins and John Wolford, who has a neck injury, that the Rams claimed Baker Mayfield on waivers. The Browns gave up on Mayfield and now the Panthers had their fill of Mayfield.

Whoever is behind center for the Rams has to deal with backups - some fourth and fifth-stringers - at just about every offensive position. The Rams have had to use a different offensive line in every game because of multiple injuries. LA has no ground game and is minus its two best wideouts, Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson.

The Raiders are playing much better defense, limiting opposing running backs to 3.07 yards during the last three weeks, which is the third-lowest mark during this span. Las Vegas also has 11 sacks during its last three games.

Jacobs is the hottest runner in the NFL. He's averaging 179 yards rushing in his last four games. The Rams' defense is far less fierce up front minus Aaron Donald, who is out, along with run-stuffing nose guard A'Shawn Robinson. So Jacobs is in line for another huge performance.

Adams is averaging 137.6 receiving yards in his last three games. Cornerback Jalen Ramsey is the Rams' best player in their secondary and he's been playing poorly.

The Rams put forth a great effort this past Sunday against the Seahawks, a team the Raiders beat. However, the Rams came up short, 27-23, against Seattle. I doubt the Rams produce another ''A'' game. The Raiders are likely to have better, crowd support than the home Rams.

The Pacers may be excused if they are a no-show in this matchup against the Timberwolves. This marks the finale of a seven-game, 11-day road trip for Indiana. The Pacers surprised the Warriors with a 112-104 victory as a 12 1/2-point 'dog this past Monday playing without six players, including Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner and Chris Durate. Haliburton and Turner are questionable while Durate remains out with an ankle injury. 

Indiana is 0-4 ATS following a cover and 0-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 

The Timberwolves won their first game without injured Karl-Anthony Towns beating the Grizzlies by eight points. But then in their second game without him, this past Saturday, they fell 135-128 to the Thunder as 5 1/2-point home favorites. The Timberwolves lost their poise in the game. Rudy Gobert was ejected early and Minnesota was whistled for five technical fouls. That was Minnesota's last game. 

I see the Timberwolves bouncing back having had three full days to rest, recuperate and redeem themselves at home. Minnesota is 5-1 ATS when playing after three or more days of rest.

Minnesota also has defeated Indiana the last three times. This includes a 115-101 road win on Nov. 23. 

Cleveland returns home after losing, 92-81, to the Knicks this past Sunday. The Cavaliers are 5-8 on the road, but 10-1 at home. Going back to last season, the Cavaliers are 11-1-1 ATS during their last 13 games at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse.

The Cavaliers average eight more points per game at home and shoot 49.3 percent from the field compared to hitting 46 percent of their field goals on the road.

The Lakers are playing well, winners of three in a row. LA is 2-0 on its current road swing upsetting the Bucks this past Friday and defeating the Wizards on Sunday. The Lakers are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when meeting an above .500 opponent, though.

The Cavaliers should be the more motivated team defending home turf plus taking on LeBron James, their former face of the franchise. The teams met in LA on Nov. 6 and the Cavaliers won, 114-100.

Home field: Check mark to Buccaneers. It's an off-surface, too, for the visiting Saints. They are used to turf not grass. 

Quarterback: Check mark to Tom Brady over Andy Dalton. 

Defense: Check mark to the Buccaneers' fifth-ranked defense compared to the Saints' 21st ranked defense. 

These are three strong handicapping factors as to why I believe the Buccaneers will beat the Saints by more than a field goal. 

The Saints are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four true road games. They haven't won on a grass field all season, including last week when they were shut out by the 49ers at Levi's Stadium. 

Not only is Brady much superior to turnover-prone Dalton, but he has better receiving weapons with Chris Godwin and Mike Evans. Godwin is coming off his best game of the year since suffering a knee injury last December.

The Saints could be down two members of their secondary with cornerback Marshon Lattimore missing the last seven games due to an abdominal injury and safety P.J. Williams suffering a knee injury last week. 

Brady entered this Week 13 leading the NFC in passing yards. He's been picked off just once since opening week. Dalton has been intercepted six times in his last four games.

Tampa Bay gives up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bucs rank fifth in pass defense and ninth in total defense. The Saints rank 21st in scoring defense. They have the fewest takeaways in the league with just six. 

Much has been made about the Packers' steep descent this season. But look at the Bears. They are 1-8 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games with five consecutive losses. Injuries and trades have made their defense a laughing stock.

Aaron Rodgers has owned the Bears, beating them 24 of 29 times. Rodgers has completed 76 percent of his passes for 1,221 yards with a 16-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last five games versus Chicago.

Rodgers is banged-up. But the Packers finally have their bye next week. So I expect Rodgers to be going all out. He'll be looking at a decimated Chicago secondary that is missing three starters, including both safeties. Chicago has the fewest sacks in the NFC with 16.

Matt LaFleur does one thing consistently right - and that's beat the Bears. He's the only Green Bay coach to win his first seven regular-season games against Chicago.

Justin Fields is expected to start, but he'll be missing his No. 1 wide receiver with Darrell Mooney done for the season with an ankle injury. Fields is a tremendous runner, but the Bears likely will be cautious with him. Fields has an AC-joint shoulder sprain and the Bears have their bye next week.

The Packers also may have finally found a special teams weapon as Keisean Nixon had two 50-plus yard returns against the Eagles last week.

The combination of North Carolina star QB Drake Maye and Clemson being eliminated from the College Football Playoffs helps put me on the underdog Tar Heels. 
South Carolina nipped Clemson, 31-30, as a two-touchdown road 'dog last week ending any Tigers' national title hopes. So this ACC championship game means far less to the Tigers now. 

North Carolina isn't going to be involved in the College Football Playoffs either, but the Tar Heels knew that. They've been pointing to this matchup for weeks knowing they had qualified for this title game. I think that factored in the Tar Heels not playing well in their last two games, upset losses to Georgia Tech and NC State after having won nine of their first 10 games. There was no incentive for them. There will here. 

There's a huge gap in quarterbacks. Clemson's D.J. Uiagalelei has been a major disappointment never adequately replacing Trevor Lawrence. Maye, on the other hand, has put up superstar numbers - 3,847 passing yards and 35 TD passes along with six rushing TD's. He leads the nation in total offense with 4,476 yards. Uiagalelei was terrible last season and he has been inconsistent this season even getting benched in spots. 

Notre Dame defeated Clemson by 21 points. North Carolina fell to the Irish by 13 points. That was the Tar Heels' only defeat of more than four points. 

Spot means a lot in the NBA. This is a good spot for the Pistons. 

Yes those 5-18 rebuilding Pistons, who are minus their top player, Cade Cunningham. He's out with a shin injury.

The Mavericks are off perhaps their most satisfying victory of the season beating the defending world champion Warriors at home on national TV two days ago, 116-113. It was the Warriors who eliminated Dallas in the Western Conference Finals last season. 

After this game, the Mavericks travel to New York to play the Knicks on Saturday. It's a huge revenge spot for the Mavericks. The Knicks embarrassed the Mavericks, beating them by 30 points in Dallas this past March. 

So this game not only is a letdown situation for the Mavericks, but a look-ahead spot, too, for them. I don't expect Dallas to bring its ''A'' game. 
This is the Pistons' third of a four-game homestand. They are 0-2 so far on the homestand with an eight-point loss to the Cavaliers and a 30-point beatdown loss to the Knicks in their last game this past Tuesday. Detroit coach Dwane Casey challenged his team after that loss to the Knicks calling out his players for soft defense and not showing any fight.

Expect the Pistons to go all-out in this one. Detroit has been banged up, but got back underrated Isaiah Stewart against the Knicks. Stewart put up 19 points versus New York. Stewart is the Pistons' top rebounder. 

Still unconvinced? OK, how about this: Despite their 5-18 record, the Pistons have a winning point spread mark. Dallas doesn't. The Mavericks are 5-14-1 (26 percent) ATS. Dallas is 1-10-1 ATS the past 12 times after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. 

The Mavericks also have lost and failed to cover during their last five road games. They are 1-7 away from home with that lone victory occurring in overtime against the Nets in  October. 

The Mavericks have been pointing to this marquee nationally-televised home matchup for a long time. It was Golden State who ended Dallas' season last year beating the Mavericks in five games during the Western Conference Finals. 

The Mavericks committed fewer turnovers than the Warriors during that series, but were done in by cold shooting. 

The Warriors' 27th-ranked defense has regressed very much since then especially on the road. Golden State is 2-9 SU and ATS away from home this season with its only road victories coming against the Rockets and Timberwolves. 

Dallas is on a four-game losing streak. But those losses have come to good teams losing to the Nuggets and then the last three on the road to the Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. 

Now the Mavericks are back home where they have covered seven of the last 10 times when hosting the Warriors.

Since firing Frank Reich, the Colts are 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS upsetting the Raiders on the road and losing to the Eagles by one point at home. The controversial hiring of Jeff Saturday has looked good so far. The players have responded to him.

The most disappointing part of the Colts' season has been their offensive line. If there' one thing Saturday, the long-time former Pro Bowl center for the Colts, knows something about it's an offensive line. He can get it fixed because there is talent there. There is also skill position talent. Jonathan Taylor is back healthy. He's rushed for 231 yards in his last two games.

Matt Ryan is a level higher than rookie Kenny Pickett right now. Pickett has thrown three TD passes and been picked off eight times. He's been sacked 14 times in his last three games.

The Steelers are 3-7 and have lost four straight road games. They entered this week ranked 26th in scoring defense allowing 24.4 points a game. The Colts have the better record and their defense entered the week giving up the 11th fewest points per game at 20. Indianapolis ranked fifth in pass defense. The Colts give up 5.0 yards per play and 307.6 yards per game compared to the Steelers allowing 5.8 yards per play and 375.5 yards a game.

Pittsburgh went into this week ranked 29th in scoring offense, averaging just 16.3 points a game. The Steelers won't have their second-best running back, Jaylen Warren. He's out with a hamstring injury.

Both teams should be highly motivated playing on national TV. But the Steelers' 37-30 home loss to the Bengals last week realistically ended any playoff hope. They are looking at their first losing season under Mike Tomlin. They should be in rebuild mode now.

The Colts have some momentum with the coaching switch to Saturday. They are just two games back in the loss column in the AFC South Division.

The bar is not set high here asking the Colts to win by a field goal.

The Bucs enter this matchup at their most healthy and fresh off a bye. The Browns were hoping to hang on until Deshaun Watson could take over. But that didn't happen. Cleveland is 3-7 with six losses in its last seven games.

Morale is bad with the Browns. So is their defense, which ranks tied for 31st giving up 26.9 points a game. Tom Brady has the passing attack to take advantage along with an upgraded ground attack thanks to more usage from outside threat Rachaad White, who is now properly factored into Tampa Bay's offense.

Tampa Bay has a top-six defense and its offense that has the second-fewest turnovers. Cleveland has only eight takeaways, which ranks 29th. The Buccaneers held Seattle's star rookie running back Kenneth Walker to 17 yards on 10 carries two weeks ago in their last game. Walker had averaged 102 yards rushing during his past five games.

This doesn't bode well for Nick Chubb, who the Browns heavily rely upon. The Buccaneers are going to be tough to run against with the Browns losing emerging center Ethan Pocic to a knee injury.

The Cavaliers come into Milwaukee fat and happy after celebrating Thanksgiving having swept their four-game homestand. They'll find an angry Bucks team awaiting them.

Milwaukee is 9-2 at home this season. However, one of its losses just occurred to the Bulls on Wednesday, 118-113.

The Bucks buried the Cavaliers, 113-98, when the teams last met nine days ago in Milwaukee. That was the seventh time in the last nine tries the Bucks have covered against the Cavaliers at home.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player in the league averaging 30.5 points, 11.6 rebounds and 5.5 assists. The Bucks get back Wesley Matthews, too, to boost their rotation.

Missouri is tough at home going 4-2 with the losses coming to Georgia and Kentucky by four points each. That's the closest any team has come to beating undefeated Georgia this season.

The Tigers can secure bowl eligibility with a victory. It's also a revenge spot for the Tigers. Arkansas won last year's game, 34-17. Previous to that, though, the Tigers had won five in a row in the series.  

Arkansas gained its bowl eligibility last week upsetting Mississippi, 42-27. The Razorbacks could suffer a letdown after that great win. This is just Arkansas' fourth true road game. The Razorbacks could be minus their second-leading tackler, linebacker Bumper Pool. He's dealing with hip and back injuries. 

Josh Allen and Co. won't have an easier defense to go against all season than Detroit. The Lions give up the most yards and points per game in the NFL. They also are likely to be minus their best defensive backfield player in cornerback Jeff Okudah, who is in concussion protocol. 

The Bills just played at Ford Field this past Sunday when their game was moved from Buffalo to Detroit. A fast track makes the Bills' up-tempo offense even more potent. 

The Lions have won three in a row beating the Giants, Bears and Packers. The Bills are a huge step up for them. Buffalo is overdue to play better after not producing an "A'' level game during the last four weeks since beating the Chiefs. 

Detroit hasn't won on Thanksgiving since 2016 when Jim Caldwell was its coach. Don't look for the Lions to end that streak here. 

Mississippi's hopes of winning the SEC West Division ended last week with a narrow loss to Alabama. Following this game, the Rebels meet in-state conference rival Mississippi State in their annual Egg Bowl game. So it's a difficult situational spot for the Rebels going on the road to face Arkansas.

The 5-5 Razorbacks have all kinds of incentive. Not only do they have revenge for a wild 52-51 loss last year to Mississippi State, but they need a sixth win to be bowl eligible. Ole Miss has failed to cover during its last four visits to Arkansas.

Arkansas held LSU to 284 total yards in a 13-10 home loss last week. Now the Razorbacks get back QB KJ Jefferson, who didn't play against LSU. Jefferson is back for this game giving the Razorbacks a dynamic dual threat quarterback weapon. Jefferson has completed 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,981 yards with a 17-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also rushed for 425 yards with six TD's on the ground.

Kudos to the Knicks in opening their five-game road trip with straight-up underdog victories against the Jazz on Tuesday and Nuggets on Wednesday. But I don't see them making it three in a row against the Warriors.

Golden State has won five in a row at home. The Knicks are playing their third road game in four days and are in action for the fifth time in eight days. They caught a break in drawing the Nuggets when Denver was missing Nikola Jokic. Still, it was a highly satisfying win for the Knicks, their first in Denver since 2006. 

The Warriors aren't as fat and happy as the Knicks. Golden State is off a highly disappointing, 130-119, road loss to the Suns this past Wednesday. Warriors coach Steve Kerr fell on his sword taking the blame for the defeat. 

I see the Warriors playing with great intensity back at home in support of Kerr. Golden State is hitting 40 percent of its 3-point shots at home. That would rank No. 2 in the league if it were the Warriors' season average. The Knicks are down defensively from past seasons. They rank in the middle in 3-point defense. 

The Titans have been winning ugly all season. It catches up to them here traveling on a short week with multiple defensive injuries facing a rejuvenated Packers team that saved their season by coming from two touchdowns behind in the fourth quarter to upset the Cowboys this past Sunday.

This is a huge game for Green Bay. The Packers can't take a loss here with their next game against the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Titans can be excused if they don't match the Packers' intensity. The Titans have a two-game lead in the very weak AFC South Division.

The timing of this road Thursday game is very bad for Tennessee. The Titans are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL right now especially on defense. They were outplayed but managed to beat the bumbling Broncos this past Sunday despite missing five defensive starters, including star tackle Jeffery Simmons and big-play linebacker Bud Dupree. The Titans then suffered three more defensive injuries against Denver.

The Packers blew out the Titans, 40-14, at home two seasons ago when the teams last met.

Yes, No. 3 ranked Houston is good, real good. But look at this spread. It's too inflated.

Texas Southern, a Houston school, is going to be highly motivated not to get embarrassed by its next door neighbor. Texas Southern isn't good, but is capable of springing an upset. Just ask Arizona State. The Tigers upset them as 11-point home 'dogs this past Sunday. 

The Tigers have been reliable in this role covering 13 of the last 18 times on the road against an above .500 opponent. 

The 3-0 Cougars have yet to be tested. They rolled past three easy foes and have a much tougher challenge up next next when they go to Oregon to play the Ducks. So their focus is likely to be at 100 percent. 

This is just the third time all season the Grizzlies are underdogs when they are expected to have Ja Morant. He missed Memphis' last game, a 102-92 road loss to the Wizards this past Saturday.

Memphis is 0-3 when Morant has been out. But with him, the Grizzlies are 9-2. The Grizzlies also are 15-7 ATS the past 22 times following a loss.

The matchup has sort of a Zig/Zag feel to it as the Pelicans are off a 119-106 home win against the Rockets from Saturday. New Orleans is 0-5 ATS following a victory.

The Grizzlies have defeated the Pelicans three of the last four times when Morant has started.

Miami has yet to get going at 6-7. The Heat are at least two levels down from the Suns. The key question is are the Heat good enough at home drawing the Suns likely without Chris Paul for a third straight game?

I rather doubt it. Considering the situation - the Suns off an embarrassing loss to the Magic this past Friday - I will get involved backing underdog Phoenix.

The Suns had a cold shooting night against Orlando while the Magic were hot making 52.4 percent of their shots from the floor.

Phoenix is 8-3 ATS the past 11 times following a loss. They are 4-0 SU this season after losing in their previous game. Phoenix also has covered in its last four visits to Miami. Cameron Payne is one of the more underrated backup point guards in the league.

The Heat have their own key injury. Tyler Herro, Miami's second-leading scorer, has missed the last three games due to a sprained ankle.

Miami just got down hosting the lowly Hornets during its past two games. The last time the Heat faced a team of this high caliber was in their second game of the season when they hosted and lost to the Celtics. The Heat have failed to cover the past six times they've met an above .500 opponent.

The Bills don't need Josh Allen to beat the Vikings, who are a bogus 7-1. Only one of Minnesota's wins has been against a winning team with six of its victories occurring in one-score games. The Vikings have a losing ATS mark. The one time the Vikings had a step-up game, they lost 24-7 to the Eagles.

Already the Vikings have built up an insurmountable five-game lead in the loss column in their NFC North Division. I doubt the Vikings get as motivated for this game as the Bills will at home off a terrible loss to the Jets.

I want Buffalo in this spot and I'm fine with Case Keenum, who is one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league and is surrounded by weapons in the Bills' high octane offensive attack. Keenum is experienced and proficient in Buffalo's spread type offense. I don't see the Bills, with their aggressive nature, dialing things back.

Not only is the spot bad for the Vikings catching the Bills off a division loss, but the setting isn't good either for Minnesota. The Vikings are a dome team traveling into Buffalo in mid-November with the forecast calling for possible snow showers and wind in the 10-20 mph range.

Texas Christian is ranked fourth in the country in the latest The Associated Press Top 25 poll. Texas is ranked 18th. Yet the Longhorns are solid favorites. Usually it's the oddsmaker who has the correct power rankings, not the Top 25 voters. This time, though, it's the Top 25 poll that is accurate about these teams.

TCU is the better team. The Horned Frogs are 9-0, including 6-0 in the Big 12. They just defeated Texas Tech by 10 points. Texas is 6-3 with two of its defeats coming to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, two teams that TCU defeated.

Texas lacks TCU's consistency and polish. The Horned Frogs have already beaten four ranked opponents. Only Tennessee has knocked off more with five.

The Horned Frogs have dominated the Longhorns, too, going 7-3 SU, 8-2 ATS against them since becoming a Big 12 member 10 years ago. They are 4-1 versus the Longhorns in Austin.

The Carolina Panthers are the worst team in the NFC. So it's a no-brainer for me to lay less than a field goal against them especially when the Panthers are going to start P.J. Walker at quarterback. 

Walker's 317-yard passing performance against the Falcons two weeks ago was an outlier. Walker's ability is far closer to the 3-of-10 passing for nine yards and two interceptions he had against the Bengals last Sunday. The Falcons rank last in pass defense. Walker won't be able to exploit that.

I'm not a fan of Baker Mayfield. But at least he's a legitimate NFL starting quarterback, albeit a lower class one. Walker isn't. Even a fresh Sam Darnold would be a better choice than Walker in attacking such a vulnerable secondary. 

The Falcons aren't very good either. But they do run the ball well with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley and Marcus Mariota, who is more of a rushing threat than a passer. The Bengals gashed the Panthers on the ground for 241 yards, averaging 6.2 yards on 39 runs. If you can't stop the run, you're going to have trouble with Atlanta. 

Not only did the Panthers trade their best offensive chip, Christian McCaffrey, but they have injuries to three of their key defenders: pass rushing star Brian Burns, underrated lineman Derrick Brown and safety Jeremy Chinn. I'm expecting Burns and Brown to play - it's a bonus if they don't - but the Panthers still are going to have problems stopping the Falcons' ground game. Carolina has surrendered 79 points during the last two weeks. 

The fallout in Carolina from its one-sided loss to Cincinnati is more coaching turnover. Interim coach Steve Wilks fired two defensive coaches, Paul Pasqualoni and Evan Cooper. The Panthers are a rudderless team right now. They don't have the quarterbacking, nor run defense, to beat the Falcons even at home on a Thursday night. 

The buy sign is on for the Monday night home underdog Saints following their best game of the season, a 24-0 home win against the Raiders last Sunday. The Saints held the sometimes potent Raiders to 183 yards of offense.

A key for the Saints is an improved ground attack spearheaded by Alvin Kamara that is averaging 171 yards rushing in their last four games.

The Ravens have been favored in three of their last four games and failed to cover each of those times.

Baltimore shored up its defense trading for Roquan Smith. However, the Ravens are down their two best receivers with tight end Mark Andrews and wideout Rashod Bateman both out. It' not likely Gus Edwards is going to play either.

This is a buy low opportunity on the Bengals, who looked terrible this past Monday night scoring just 13 points against the Browns and losing by 19 points. 

The Bengals don't have Ja'Marr Chase. The Panthers don't have Christian McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson. They also don't have a lot of incentive either with a 2-6 record and in rebuild mode. 

Cincinnati buried the Falcons, 35-17, two weeks ago. The Panthers lost to the Falcons this past Sunday ending any crazy dream for them of competing in their bogus NFC South Division. 

Joe Burrow doesn't need Chase to bury the Panthers. Burrow has completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, leads the NFL in passing yards and has 17 TD passes. He still has three high quality receiving targets in Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and Hayden Hurst. 

Carolina's pop gun attack operated by P.J. Walker isn't going to be able to keep up. 

The Bengals want to redeem themselves after Monday's embarrassment. This is a kill spot for them at home. The line is reasonable enough to get involved. 

TCU is the third-highest scoring team in the nation and fourth in total yards. The Horned Frogs have scored at least 38 points in every one of their games going 8-0 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. Texas Tech is 89th in scoring defense giving up 29.3 points a game.

I don't see the Red Raiders, who have been horrible on the road, staying within single digits of the unbeaten Horned Frogs.

Texas Tech just got slaughtered, 45-17, by Baylor last week and that was at home. The Red Raiders have played three road games - North Carolina State, Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They lost all three of those contests by 10 or more points.

Max Duggan is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation accounting for 26 touchdowns with just two interceptions. Texas Tech couldn't stop Baylor, which averages nearly a touchdown less per game than TCU. I don't see the Red Raiders slowing down Duggan and a TCU attack that averages 48.7 points a game at home.

Coastal Carolina is 7-1. That's the best record in the Sun Belt Conference. But the Chanticleers aren't even favored at home here against Appalachian State. Did the oddsmaker make a mistake with a wrong favorite?

Nope.

Appalachian State is better than Coastal Carolina on both sides of the ball. Coastal Carolina has built its record feasting on easy opponents. This is the first time all season the Chanticleers are underdogs. They were upset by Old Dominion, 49-21, when they last played at home. What does that tell you? 

The Mountaineers rank in the top-25 in scoring offense and total offense. Senior quarterback Chase Brice has accounted for 25 TD's with four interceptions. The Mountaineers have three good running backs headed by Camerun Peoples. It's a red flag for the Chanticleers that they were gouged for 323 yards and four TD's on the ground by Old Dominion. The Chanticleers are even worse in pass defense ranking 116th. 

Coastal Carolina has good skill position players, but they aren't as good as Appalachian State's top weapons. The Chanticleers aren't as battle tested either as Appalachian State. Coastal Carolina has failed to cover any of its past four home games.  

The oddsmaker has it right. The Mountaineers are the superior team and they will prove it here. 

I don't know why there is so much respect for the Browns in this matchup. They are not a good team. I'm not buying into the home division 'dog on Monday night, nor the Ja'Marr Chase injury as reasons not to back the Bengals.

Yes, Chase is a top-five receiver. But the Bengals are deep at wide receiver and the Browns have it worse in the injury department. Out for Cleveland is its top cornerback Denzel Ward, elite guard Wyatt Teller and emerging tight end David Njoku, who had become QB Jacoby Brissett's favorite target.

The Bengals' offensive line has gotten better. Joe Burrow has taken advantage of that to throw for 1,560 yards with 12 touchdowns and just one interception during Cincinnati's last five games. The Bengals have won four of those contests.

Cleveland, by contrast, has lost four in a row. Brissett is a career backup. Cleveland relies on Nick Chubb and an excellent ground attack. That's needed to make up for an anemic downfield passing attack.

The Bengals are the more balanced team with Joe Mixon on the ground and Burrow still having two excellent wide receiving targets, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd.

Cincinnati has covered eight of its past nine road games. The Bengals also have covered seven of the past eight times when playing in Cleveland.

Fresno State star QB Jake Haener still could be out. That would mean another start for Logan Fife, who has been picked off six times filling in for Haener. But even if Haener can play, he's going to be rusty having last played Sept. 17. So I disagree with how high the Bulldogs are favored here. This should be a very close game with first place in the Mountain West Conference West Division at stake. 

Fresno State is 3-4 on the season, which includes a stunning road loss to Connecticut. The Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home contests. San Diego State is 26-10-1 (72 percent) versus below .500 opponents. 

The Aztecs have held three of their last four foes to 14 points or fewer. San Diego State has the superior special teams play, too, with an excellent kicker/punter in Jack Browning. ESPN ranks the Aztecs No. 1 in special teams efficiency. 

Greg Schiano has done an outstanding job with Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have a winning record through seven games for the first time in eight years and are a bowl contender.

The Scarlet Knights have been at their point spread-best on the road going 31-14, including 10-3-1 during their last 14 away games.

Minnesota has gotten progressively worse after a 4-0 start. The Gophers have lost and failed to cover in their last three games, losing all three by 10 or more points.

The problem for Minnesota is scoring. The Gophers are averaging fewer than 14 points during their last three games. Tanner Morgan is one of the worst QB's in the Big Ten and he's questionable with a concussion.

The Gophers rely on a strong ground attack headed by Mohamed Ibrahim. Rutgers, however, ranks sixth against the run and eighth in defensive total yards. The Scarlet Knights also are tough on special teams, too, leading the Big Ten in blocked kicks with four.

Very tough scheduling spot for East Carolina here. The Pirates just upset American Athletic Conference rival Central Florida this past Saturday - their best win of the season - and now have to travel cross-country going into high altitude to Provo, Utah on a short week to take on BYU in a non-conference game. 

The Pirates are going to encounter an angry BYU squad that has lost three in a row, falling to Liberty, Arkansas and Notre Dame after a 4-1 start. This is a huge game for the independent Cougars, who would hurt their bowl opportunities with a loss here. 

East Carolina has a much bigger matchup in its next game facing Cincinnati, who is unbeaten in the AAC. 

BYU and East Carolina share a common opponent, South Florida. The Cougars smashed the Bulls, 50-21. BYU led 38-0 in the second quarter while outgaining South Florida, 575-279. East Carolina beat South Florida, 48-28, at neutral site Boca Raton due Hurricane Ian and gave up 455 yards to the Bulls. 

The Bucks are serious championship contenders with Giannis Antetokounmpo arguably the best player in the league. The Nets are not a good team right now. They rank last in 3-point defense and 28th in defensive scoring and defensive field goal percentage. Ben Simmons has yet to fit in.

Given all this plus the Bucks being rested and ready having last played on Saturday, I am confident laying this shorter-than-expected number with Milwaukee.

Antetokounmpo has a strong history against the Nets with a career average of nearly 25 points per game.

The 1-2 Nets haven't looked good. They lost at home by 22 points to the Pelicans, beat the Raptors by four at home and then lost by 10 to the Grizzlies on the road despite strong performances from Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined to make 28 of 44 shots (64 percent) from the floor. Brooklyn is 1-6 ATS following a loss going back to last season.

Bill Belichick has faced many difficult challenges in his 23 years as head coach of the Patriots. Devising a defensive game plan to stop Justin Fields is not one of them.

The Bears have the worst passing offense in the NFL. Fields is more dangerous as a runner than a passer. He hangs on to the ball way too long. That's one reason why he has  been sacked once in every five passing attempts. That's how bad it is. 

Chicago needs to run the ball well to have a chance. That doesn't figure to happen. The Patriots are extremely well-coached defensively. They just held Nick Chubb to a season-low 56 yards on the ground and the Browns to more than 100 yards below their rushing average last week. The Bears don't have a runner near the caliber of Chubb. 

The Patriots are likely to get back starting QB Mac Jones along with Damien Harris. The run-oriented Patriots should grind down the Bears, who rank 29th in run defense. 

The dysfunctional Panthers draw Tampa Bay at a bad time. Todd Bowles just ripped his Buccaneers after they were upset, 20-18, by the Steelers this past Sunday. So zero chance of the Buccaneers taking the Panthers lightly.

An elite Tampa Bay defense should have little trouble stopping a Panthers attack that doesn't have a legitimate starting NFL-caliber quarterback. Take away three defensive touchdowns and the Panthers would be averaging 13.6 points per game, which would be the lowest in the league.

Carolina's money-burning ways have continued from last season. The Panthers are 1-13 SU and ATS in their last 14 games. They have lost their last three games all by double-digits.

This is an easy get-right game for the Buccaneers.

(Note that I released this game early in the week before the Panthers traded Christian McCaffrey. So the line has gone up. I still like the Buccaneers to absolutely bury the Panthers by more than two touchdowns so while much of the line value is gone the handicap still holds up.)

Seems hard to believe after suffering three blowout losses, but Georgia Tech can put itself into bowl consideration. The Yellow Jackets have turned their season around after firing Geoff Collins. They are 2-0 since Brent Key was named interim coach, upsetting Pittsburgh as a 21 1/2-point road 'dog and Duke as a 3 1/2-point home dog.

It's not a coincidence. Key has fixed special teams issues and changed morale. The Yellow Jackets have their confidence up after winning consecutive games for the first time since 2018 when Paul Johnson was coach.

I expect Georgia Tech to keep its momentum hosting Virginia, which is the only winless team in the ACC having lost all three of its conference games. The Cavaliers are struggling under first-year head coach Tony Elliott.

The Cavaliers haven't scored more than 20 points against an FBS opponent. Brennan Armstrong is a decent QB, but he doesn't have much skill position help and he's playing behind a rebuilt offensive line.

"We are still a team that needs a lot of work fundamentally,'' Elliott was quoted as saying. That kind of quote is not very confidence-inspiring especially coming six games into Virginia's season.

The class difference between these two teams is much wider than this point spread.

The Nuggets are serious championship contenders. They also are healthy, something they rarely were last season.

The Jazz are serious contenders, too, - for the first overall draft pick. Gone is coach Quin Snyder. Also departed are Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanovic. The Jazz are in full rebuild mode.

Utah didn't look good during preseason. The team has huge holes. The Nuggets want to start fast so they'll be out for a lopsided victory here.

The market is down on the Celtics because of the season suspension of coach Ime Udoka and injuries to Robert Williams III and Danilo Gallinari.

What's being overlooked is the Celtics still have their All-Star wings in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, a shored-up backcourt with the addition of underrated all-around player Malcolm Brogdon and upper-tier role players Grant Williams, Derrick White, Al Horford and Marcus Smart. 

Joe Mazzulla, Boston's new head coach, has minimal head coaching experience but will be helped and guided by Brad Stevens. 

The Celtics finished 28-7 last season. They outscored their opponents by 14.8 points per 100 possessions during their last 32 games. 

The 76ers finished last season 3-12-1 ATS on the road. Short price to lay with the superior team especially at home. 

Given the quality of Denver's defense and injuries to several of their own key players, including top pass rusher Joey Bosa and wide receiver Keenan Allen, I believe the Chargers are priced too high so I'll be on the underdog Broncos.

Denver entered Week 6 allowing the second-fewest yards per pass attempt, second-fewest TD passes and had the fifth-most sacks.

Russell Wilson no longer is his prime. But he still knows how to win and is capable of playing much better as he makes the transition from Seattle to Denver. He faces a Chargers defense that ranks 31st in scoring defense giving up 27.2 points a game and 6.2 yards per run. Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone are solid enough backs to take advantage of the Chargers' weak run defense, which in turn sets up Wilson to effectively pick his spots.

Rejoice time stops here for the Jets. While New York was celebrating beating the Dolphins and their third-string rookie quarterback this past Sunday, the Packers were on their way home from London in humbling fashion after blowing a double-digit lead against the inferior Giants.

Aaron Rodgers has a chip on his shoulder the size of his ego. I like Rodgers that way. The Packers are 9-0 SU and ATS following a loss with all but one of those victories coming by at least 10 points. How did Rodgers fare in these nine games? Try a 24-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

The Jets are fat and happy having stopped a 12-game division losing streak. They are 3-2 with a miracle win against the less-than-bright Browns, another come from behind victory against the 1-4 Steelers and receiving an early Christmas gift of drawing an unprepared and ill-equipped Skylar Thompson when Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out early in the Dolphins game.

Yeah the Jets are improved. They have some promising young players. But don't get carried away. The underachieving Packers are still at least two - if not three - levels higher than the Jets and are playing at home in circle-the-wagons mode. Green Bay is 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS during its last 15 home games.

Matchup-wise, the Packers can run on the Jets with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. If the Jets load the box - which I expect them to do - Rodgers has enough reliable pass catching targets and MVP ability left to burn the Jets.

Green Bay is healthy on defense. They have the pass rushers with Rashaun Gary, Kenny Clark and Preston Smith to take advantage of the Jets' vulnerable offensive tackle situation, which is a fourth-string option at left tackle and a second-stringer at right tackle. Zach Wilson has yet to impress me. He's made 15 NFL starts. He's committed 14 turnovers and been sacked 47 times.

I don't expect the Packers to be flat, or to be bothered by jet lag. The Saints and Vikings played in London two weeks ago. Both won last week without the benefit of taking their bye week.

This is your classic buy low spot on the Packers.

The Padres are 32-27 since the start of August even being reinforced with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Josh Hader. They aren't at the 111-win elite level of the Dodgers.

This is especially the case in this Game 1 matchup where the Dodgers have one of their aces going in Julio Urias, while the Padres are starting Mike Clevinger.

Clevinger is not in the class of teammates Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove, who shut down the Mets during their wild card series. Clevinger is 7-7 with a 4.33 ERA. He made three starts against the Dodgers this season spanning 13 innings. He was 0-2 with a fat 9.69 ERA.

By contrast, Urias dominated the Padres going 3-0 in four starts against them with a 1.50 ERA in 24 innings. Urias had three of those starts in September going 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in them. Career-wise, Urias is 6-1 versus San Diego with a 2.19 ERA in 61 2/3 innings.

So I don't see the Padres keeping this one close.

Nevada is 2-3. But the Wolf Pack aren't nearly as bad as Colorado State, which is 0-4 and has been outscored by 121 points.

This is going to be an intense game with Nevada drawing its biggest home crowd of the season. The reason being that Colorado State's head coach is Jay Norvell. He's in his first year after coaching Nevada the previous five seasons.

Many of Nevada's players were recruited by Norvell, who left in December and took with him to Colorado State 11 Wolf Pack players, five recruits and several assistant coaches.

So far it has been a disaster for the Rams. They rank last in total offense and are in the bottom-10 in numerous other offensive categories, including rushing, third-down conversion rate, red zone offense, scoring defense and several special teams categories. The Rams are in the argument for worst team in the country.

Yes, the Rams played Michigan and Washington State. But they also lost to Middle Tennessee State by 15 points and fell to FCS Sacramento State by 31 points.

The good news for the Jets is Joe Flacco won't be under center anymore. The bad news is Zach Wilson will be. I don't understand Jets optimism about Wilson. He was horrendous as a rookie last season. One of the three-worst starting quarterbacks in the league.

Not only could Wilson be rusty making his 2022 debut, but the Jets have an injury-riddled, inexperienced offensive line. The Jets are down to fourth-string left tackle Conor McDermott to protect Wilson's blindside. New York's other starting offensive tackle is fourth-round rookie Max Mitchell. What good are intriguing skill position talents if you have an inaccurate quarterback behind a bad offensive line?

The Steelers won't have superstar T.J. Watt. But they have other decent pass rushers.

I give the Steelers a strong coaching edge with Mike Tomlin over Robert Saleh plus a situational advantage having extra preparation time from having played last Thursday. That extra time helped Minkah Fitzpatrick come out of concussion protocol. He's a difference maker on defense.

Mitch Trubisky has excellent receiving weapons and is playing a softer defense at home. This is Trubisky's best opportunity all season.

Following this game, the Steelers play the Bills, Buccaneers, Dolphins and Eagles with three of those games being on the road. So this is a very important win opportunity that Pittsburgh can't blow.

This matchup is below-the-radar. Because if it wasn't, East Carolina would be a much larger favorite. 

South Florida lost its home field advantage when the game was moved from Orlando to Boca Raton because of Hurricane Ian. The Bulls were 2-10 last season. They are terrible again this season going 0-3 against Division I teams. The Bulls were slaughtered, 41-3, by Louisville last week. They were out-gained by 384 yards in that game. 

East Carolina is 2-2, but has outgained its opponent in every game. The Pirates nearly upset North Carolina State as a 12-point 'dog, losing 21-20 on a missed extra point. 

The Pirates have covered nine of their last 12 games. They have a balanced attack and a veteran QB in Holton Ahlers, one of the better QB's in the American Athletic Conference. The Pirates beat South Florida, 29-14, last season. Expect the same this time around, too. 

Timing means a lot in the NFL - and the timing sure isn't good for Miami in this Thursday night road game.

It's not just Tua Tagovailoa being questionable with back and ankle injuries.

The Dolphins still could be exhausted from their huge, 21-19, home win against the Bills this past Sunday. The game was played in Miami's scorching September humidity. Miami's defense was on the field for nearly 41 minutes as the Bills offense ran 89 plays.

The Bengals got back on track rolling past the Jets after close losses to the Steelers and Cowboys where they played well below their capabilities. Cincinnati's offensive line, expected to be much improved, gave up two sacks to the Jets after giving up 13 during the first two games.

The Bengals have yet to play well. Still, they could be 2-0. They lost to the Cowboys on a 50-yard field goal as time expired and nearly beat the Steelers in overtime despite a minus-5 turnover ratio. Neither the Cowboys, nor Steelers, are very good right now.

But the Jets are bottom tier. So not only are the Bengals stepping down in class, but the spot sets up well for them. Cincinnati already is in must-win mode at risk of falling 0-3. The Jets are in a rare fat-and-happy mood. They still might be riding Cloud 9 after their miracle comeback against the Browns last Sunday after being down 13 points with less than two minutes left. The last time a comeback like that was pulled off was 21 years ago.

Don't be fooled, though. Joe Flacco still is Joe Flacco. He's an immobile sloth who is washed-up.

The Super Bowl runner-up Bengals are at least two levels higher than the Jets. Joe Burrow should have the rust off now. Tee Higgins is expected to play joining superstar Ja'Marr Chase. Cincinnati's revamped offensive line is due to play much better against a weak Jets defense.

After six years of avoiding Southern Cal because Clay Helton was its coach, it's safe again to back the Trojans. Their new coach, offensive guru Lincoln Riley, has turned around the Trojans. Riley brought QB Caleb Williams with him from Oklahoma. Williams is one of the top QB's in the country. He's thrown for 874 yards and eight TD's this season for the 3-0 Trojans. Williams' top target is Jordan Addison, one of the best wide receivers in the nation.

Oregon State also is 3-0. The Beavers are getting strong QB play, too, from Chase Nolan. He ranks 13th in passer ratings.

But there's a class and athlete difference between these two schools. Helton couldn't take advantage of that. The Beavers upset USC as a double-digit road 'dog last season. That was Oregon State's first win in Los Angeles in 61 years. So the Trojans also have revenge motivation to go with an edge in athleticism along with an elite coach and quarterback.

The Trojans have taken much better care of the ball under Riley, not nearly as careless. They are plus 10 in takeaways/giveaways. That's the best ratio in the nation. USC has yet to turn the ball over.

Points especially matter here. That's usually the case with a total Under 40.

I'll accept this many in this division matchup. The Steelers have flaws, yes. But the Browns can't be trusted - nor should they be - in this point spread range.

As bad as Mitch Trubisky is, I'll take him above Jacoby Brissett.

The Steelers are giving up 18.5 points per game, which includes an overtime period against the Bengals. The Browns rank 26th in defensive scoring allowing 27.5 points per game.

The short week may work against the Browns. They still could be reeling from blowing a 13-point lead with 1:55 left in a shocking, 31-30, home loss to the Jets this past Sunday.

Najee Harris is off to a slow start. Harris shredded the Browns for 279 rushing yards last season helping Pittsburgh defeat Cleveland twice. If Harris can get back on pace that would relieve pressure on Trubisky, who has much better receiving targets than Brissett has. Harris catches a break with Browns defensive end Jadeveon Clowney ruled out with an ankle injury.

The Steelers have covered five of the last six in the series. Cleveland is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games.

Mike Tomlin gets a strong checkmark in the coaching department against Kevin Stefanski. The Steelers have covered 63 percent of the time when getting points during the Tomlin era.

The Packers suffered a very frustrating loss to the Vikings opening week. Fortunately for them their favorite patsy is up next - the Bears. It's true Aaron Rodgers owns the Bears. Green Bay has defeated Chicago six consecutive times and 12 of the last 14 times at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has accounted for 15 TD's in the Packers' last four games against Chicago with a 141.5 passer rating. Unlike past victories, though, the Packers will dominate the Bears in the trenches and with a strong 1-2 running/catching punch of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers should have Allen Lazard back as his No. 1 wide receiver. He'll also be looking to throw to reliable tight end Robert Tonyan, who he has excellent chemistry with.

Green Bay's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Bears, on the other hand, may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. Chicago's inexperienced tackles Braxton Jones and Larry Borom are no match for Kenny Clark, emerging Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. This is the biggest mismatch between defensive line and offensive line in all of the Week 2 matchups.

The Bears' upset of the 49ers last week came because Justin Fields threw a 51-yard TD pass on a busted play when Chicago was trailing 10-0. That got the Bears going and ignited them. The 49ers were flat. Trey Lance is inexperienced. Rodgers is not. Rodgers has turned the ball over only once the last six times he's faced the Bears.

The Packers have won 13 straight regular-season home games. This isn't the playoffs, the Packers won't choke here.

There are two ways of looking at Georgia's 49-3 thrashing of Oregon in Atlanta two weeks ago. Either the defending national champion and top-ranked Bulldogs are that good, or Oregon isn't nearly as dangerous as cracked up to be. I go with the first.

Look for the Ducks to get redemption on national TV in the confines of Autzen Stadium where they have won 20 straight and 29 consecutive non-conference games.

BYU is ranked 12th in the nation following its exciting 26-20 overtime home win against Baylor last Saturday. But the Cougars are nowhere near the level of Georgia. They also are likely to be without their two best wide receivers again, Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua.

Oregon is tough in the trenches - one of the few schools to return all five of its starting offensive linemen - and has physical linebackers. BYU averaged only 2.4 yards rushing against Baylor.

But the Ducks' major strengths are speed and skill position depth. These are major edges against BYU and will prove the difference. Oregon got some of its confidence back rolling past Eastern Washington - a decent FCS school - 70-14, covering easily as 27-point home 'dogs last week.

Oregon QB Bo Nix always has been better at home where he has a 28-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio compared to just 12-to-12 on the road. Nix should have ample time to spot his speedy downfield targets given the experience of his offensive line.

Yes, the Chiefs look great again. But the Chargers are right up with them as a double-digit win team with realistic Super Bowl aspirations. The Chargers traveling on a short week is mitigated by this being an early-season division game so the fatigue factor is lessened and the team has familiarity with the opponent.

The point spread should not be this high. It's partly due to an overreaction from the Chiefs smashing the Cardinals opening week. The Cardinals, though, are a bad and banged-up team right now.

The Chargers can match the Chiefs' talent level. Justin Herbert, like Patrick Mahomes, is a top-five quarterback. The Chargers have by far the best running back in Austin Ekeler and the better pass rush with Khalil Mack making an immediate impact last week in tandem with another premier pass rusher, Joey Bosa. Los Angeles also is strong in the defensive backfield and in the offensive line.

Really the Chargers' only weaknesses are stopping the run and special teams. But the Chiefs don't beat teams on the ground and it's their kicker, Harrison Butker, who is out.

The Chargers have fared well recently when playing in Kansas City going 3-0-1 ATS during their last four visits. The Chargers have won there each of the last two seasons. No shock at all if they make it three straight road victories against the Chiefs.

Huge motivation for both teams in this Monday night Russell Wilson Bowl. But the pressure is on Denver as road chalk. Expectations aren't nearly as high on the Seahawks.

Seattle has a strong home field advantage. The crowd will be up for this matchup. Wilson is several rungs higher than Geno Smith. But Smith has weapons with D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett and Noah Fant. Rashad Penny is healthy so Smith has a ground attack to rely upon, too.

I find the Broncos to be overrated. Wilson is on the downside of his career. He's not quite as accurate as before and he's less of a danger to run. Wilson didn't get any timing down with his new team during preseason. So the Seahawks catch the Broncos at a good time.

The Seahawks are 19-8-1 ATS as a home underdog during the Pete Carroll era. The Seahawks have covered 16 of the last 23 times they've been a 'dog. Smith, for all the criticism, is 6-3 ATS as a home 'dog when starting.

Don't be fooled by the Week 1 outcomes when accessing these two teams in this matchup.

South Alabama rolled past Nicholls State, an FCS school, 48-7, last week while Central Michigan lost 58-44 to Oklahoma State. 

The Jaguars are a middle-of-the-road Sun Belt Conference team. They have failed to cover in their last six road games. 

Central Michigan covered against Oklahoma State, who is ranked 11th in the country. Chippewas QB Daniel Richardson completed 36 of 49 passes for 424 yards and four TD's with no interceptions against the Cowboys. 

The Chippewas came on strong last season winning seven of their last nine games, including upsetting Washington State in a bowl game. They are on a 6-0 covering run. 

So give me a solid MAC team against this Sun Belt foe. 

Louisville and its quarterback, Malik Cunningham, are not who we thought they would be. The Cardinals are much worse than imagined and Cunningham, hindered by a bad offensive line and devoid of talented wide receivers, shouldn't even be mentioned in the same breath with his Louisville predecessor, Lamar Jackson.

The Cardinals were buried, 31-7, by underdog Syracuse in their opener last Saturday. The Orange have an excellent running back, but little else offensively. Yet they produced 449 yards of offense against Louisville with Orange QB Garrett Shrader racking up 332 yards of offense with his arm and legs. The Cardinals gave up an average of more than 400 yards per game last season and don't appear improved.

Now Louisville has to go back on the road to face a better QB in Central Florida's John Rhys Plumlee, a transfer from Mississippi. Plumlee rolled up 407 yards of offense in leading the Knights to a 56-10 win against South Carolina State in their opener eight days ago. Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 road games.

Central Florida's defensive strength is its secondary. So I don't see the overrated Cunningham faring much better while the Knights behind Plumlee can take advantage of the Cardinals' porous defense.

It may have been the best game of the entire WNBA season when Las Vegas beat Seattle on the road two days ago in overtime, 110-98. The Aces forced overtime by scoring at the buzzer. The Storm blew a 4-point lead with 11 seconds left. Seattle led the WNBA in free throw percentage and 3-point shooting. But the Storm's Tina Charles missed a pair of free throws near the end that would have likely sealed the victory in regulation for Seattle. The Storm also was outshot from 3-point range by Las Vegas in Sunday's loss.

The Aces can clinch the semifinal series with a victory today leading the best-of-five series 2-1. Seattle won the first game of the series. The Aces have won the last two.

But I deeply envision the Storm forcing a Game 5 by winning this home game.

Why? Let me count the reasons:

I don't see the Storm losing in Sue Bird's final career game at home.

I can't see A'Ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray playing any better than they did this past Sunday. They are both excellent players. Wilson might be the best player in the league. But they were both on their ''A'' game. They can only hope to match those performances, which is going to be extremely difficult.

I don't envision Seattle losing for the third time in a row. The only time the Storm lost three in a row was during their second, third and fourth games of the season back in early-to-mid May. The Aces are 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory.

I doubt the Aces will shoot better than the Storm from beyond the arc again. Seattle was the No. 1 3-point shooting team in the league. The Aces ranked 10th of 12 teams in 3-point defense. Yet Las Vegas made 52 percent of its 28 3-point shots Sunday, while the Storm hit 48 percent of their 27 3-point shots.

This is far more of a mismatch than this point spread indicates. Louisville has defeated Syracuse the past three times by an average of 30 points, including out-scoring the Orange, 71-3, during the last two meetings.

Louisville owns a monster edge at QB with Malik Cunningham, the top rushing QB in the ACC. Cunningham is protected by a very underrated offensive line.

Syracuse is forced to be one-dimensional on the ground with Sean Tucker because its QB, Garret Shrader, is terrible. Shrader is very inaccurate and he's not helped by a weak group of receivers. Tucker is excellent, but the Cardinals will be stacking the line against him.

The Orange haven't been able to turn the corner under Dino Babers with just 11 victories during the past three years.

Ottawa has covered during each of its last NINE visits to Montreal. That's a strong historical trend. But there is much more as to why I like the underdog Redblacks to cover if not win straight-up.

The defending WNBA champion Sky understand how crucial winning Game 2 of this semifinal series against the Sun is after getting upset at home by Connecticut in Game 1. Teams leading the best-of-five playoff series are 15-0 in WNBA history. In other words, no team has ever come back from a 2-0 deficit. The Sky also realizes that Games 3 and 4 are in Connecticut. 

Chicago also was upset in its playoff opener at home last series losing to New York, 98-91. The Sky came back to smash the Liberty by 38 points in Game 2 at home. 
I understand the Sun are a level higher than the Liberty, who did well to even make the postseason. But until the Sun sprung that Game 1 upset, they had lost six in a row to the Sky. Those games were close, but the Sky still won those games by an average of 5.1 points, which is more than this spread. Connecticut is 2-5 ATS in its last seven visits to Chicago. 

The Sun are tough inside. They defeated the Wings in their previous playoff series despite making only 13 of 46 3-pointers. Connecticut was able to hurt Dallas inside. The Sky hold a backcourt edge and they have the bigs with Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman to combat Jonquel Jones, DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas. 
It's extremely difficult for an underdog to win consecutive road playoff games. I don't see the Sun pulling that feat off in this game. 

On the surface this seems like a spot to back the underdog Angels. After all, they just swept three games from the Blue Jays in Toronto while the Yankees dropped their second straight game to the lowly A's in Oakland on Sunday.

But I don't see it that way. Instead I see this as a kill spot for the Yankees. So I'm taking them on the run line, eliminating the heavy juice that comes with backing the much superior Yankees.

Not only do the Yankees possess a huge offensive advantage, but they have the better starting pitcher going and a strong situational edge. The Angels just concluded a 10-game road trip that took them to Detroit, Tampa Bay and Toronto. They had to make the 5 1/2-hour flight back to Southern California on Sunday night while the Yankees just had a short flight from Oakland to Los Angeles already being on the West Coast .

Keep in mind, too, that the Angels had lost nine of 10 before sweeping the Blue Jays. The Yankees had gotten back in a groove winning five in a row before losing to Oakland on Saturday and Sunday.

Frankie Montas goes against lefty Jose Suarez. Montas is a good pitcher. He started slow when he was dealt to the Yankees but looked back to normal in his last start holding the Mets to two runs in 5 1/3 innings with six strikeouts.

Suarez has a 4.19 ERA compared to Montas' 3.84 ERA. Suarez's ERA climbs to 4.81 when pitching at home. Suarez has fattened his record and stats facing the weak-hitting A's twice and Royals once during his last five starts giving up no earned runs in those three appearances spanning 17 1/3 innings.

Suarez is facing a Yankees squad that is first in homers and second in runs. Not exactly the A' and Royals. The Yankees are 40-18 in their last 58 games against a southpaw starter. New York also has beaten the Angels seven of the last 10 times on the road.

This is the third and deciding game in this playoff series. The Sun are at least one level higher than the Wings. Perhaps they got overconfident, though, after they buried Dallas, 93-68, in Game 1. The Wings came back to upset the Sun, 89-79, this past Sunday. Both of those games were in Connecticut.

That was the Wings' first playoff victory since 2009. Now Dallas is likely to get back Arike Ogunbowale, its leading scorer. The Wings are the home team here.

Things are looking up for the Wings, right?

Perhaps. But I don't see the Wings upsetting the Sun again in this winner-take-all matchup. Connecticut has more talent, deeper bench and big-game playoff experience. Ogunbowale has missed eight of Dallas' last nine games. So she could be rusty. The Wings did fine without her to make the playoffs.

Connecticut is looking to reach the semifinals for the fourth consecutive season. Dallas has one playoff victory in the last 13 years. The Sun had the second-best road record in the league at 12-6. The Wings have a losing home mark. The Sun also have covered their past six away contests and are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've played in Dallas.

The teams have been conducting joint practices and the Packers' defense has been getting the better of things, according to multiple reports. Jordan Love has much to prove in this game. So does the Packers wide receiving corps. 

Saints coach Dennis Allen has never won a preseason road game as a head coach going 0-7, including 1-6 ATS. New Orleans doesn't put a premium on preseason games. The Saints are 7-14 SU, 6-15 ATS in preseason since 2015. The Saints aren't putting emphasis on this game either. 

The Saints aren't going to play many starters here. The few they do won't play long, perhaps a series or two. Jameis Winston is nursing a slight foot injury. He won't play. New Orleans' backup QB's are Andy Dalton and Ian Book, a stiff who figures to draw most of the minutes. 

The Saints' third and fourth-stringers didn't look good in a 17-13 loss to the Texans last week. The Packers are likely to leave some of their starters and second-stringers in longer than the Saints. Green Bay is home and cares more about winning this game than New Orleans does.  

The defending WNBA champion Chicago Sky host the New York Liberty in this opening playoff game. There's a big class difference between the 26-10 Sky and 16-20 Liberty. The key question is the gap enough for the Sky to cover this number? 

I say it is. 

The Liberty did well to get into the playoffs. They accomplished the task by winning six of their last eight games. But none of these games was against any of the top five teams in the league. There's a dropoff from the top five teams - Sky, Aces, Sun, Storm and Mystics - to the rest of the league.  

Chicago has a huge edge inside. The Sky led the WNBA with an average of 42.1 points in the paint. The Liberty was last in that category, averaging 31.2 points. Candace Parker and Emma Meesseman give the Sky a strong inside presence. Chicago finished No. 1 in the league in field goal percentage. The Sky also have much better depth and bench strength than New York. 

The Liberty is highly reliant on star guard Sabrina Ionescu. But she can go hot and cold. New York ranked third-from-the-bottom in scoring. The Liberty did well to reach the postseason. But they aren't going to advance out of the first round. 

The announcement that Deshaun Watson is going to start has caused a switch of favorites in this game. Cleveland is now road chalk. The marketplace has this wrong. The Jaguars should win this game. 

The Jaguars laid an egg against the Raiders in the Hall of Fame game. But now the Jaguars have played a game and are home here. Those are key situational edges. Watson hasn't played since January of 2021. He's learning a new offense and isn't likely to play very long. The Browns are run-oriented. However, their two best running backs - Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt - are not expected to play. 

Jacksonville coach Doug Pederson has more of a sense of urgency than Browns coach Kevin Stefanski. The Jaguars fell behind the Raiders, 20-0, at halftime. Keep in mind, the Jaguars didn't play their top two QB's, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Beathard, against Las Vegas.

Peterson is going to play a lot of starters here. Lawrence, Travis Etienne and the rest of Jacksonville's first-string offense will get at least a couple of series. Lawrence has looked good in training camp. So has Etienne. The Jaguars upgraded their wide receiving corps. Lawrence needs game time work with them. This is that opportunity. There will be many defensive starters playing, too, for Jacksonville. The Jaguars outscored the Raiders, 11-7, in the second half. Jacksonville had five sacks against Las Vegas. 

I would rather have Beathard than either of the Browns' third and fourth-string QB's, Josh Dobbs and Josh Rosen. Those two figure to see the bulk of action for Cleveland.

Way under the radar, Mitch Keller is pitching the best ball of his career. The season numbers show a 3-8 record and 4.21 ERA. But Keller has been pitching great during his last five starts giving up just six earned runs during this 31-inning span. 

If given 1 1/2 runs, Pittsburgh would be 7-2 in Keller's last nine starts. One of those losses was 2-0 to the Rockies at Coors Field. 

Arizona is pitching Madison Bumgarner, who is on the downside of his career. He's 6-10 with a 3.96 ERA. Bumgarner has surrendered 14 earned runs in 24 2/3 innings during his last four starts allowing 30 hits and eight walks. He's given up a home run in four of his last five starts. 

The Aces got back on track this past Sunday upsetting Seattle on the road, 89-81. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon made a key adjustment starting center Kiah Stokes. That gave the Aces more size and rebounding.

Las Vegas has covered 10 of the last 14 times it has hosted Atlanta. However, the last time the Dream played in Las Vegas, which was on July 19, they upset the Aces, 92-76.

The Aces are in a good spot to exact revenge. The Dream are playing for the fourth time in six days. They just played in Minnesota two days ago. WNBA teams fly commercial, so six games in four days is an extremely tough grind. Making matters worse for the Dream is they are short-handed. They were only able to use eight players in their 10-point loss to the Lynx this past Sunday.

One of Atlanta's missing players against the Lynx was Tiffany Hayes. She is the Dream's leading scorer. Her status is up in the air due to an ankle injury. Atlanta is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven games.

Out of gas and out of motivation, the Sparks should be no match for Washington. Los Angeles realizes its playoff goal is not going to be met. The Sparks' postseason hopes have realistically been dashed with a six-game losing streak, the latest coming in heart-breaking fashion. That was an 88-86 road loss to Atlanta on Friday where a Sparks' game-tying basketball came just after time expired.

That loss was mentally draining for the Sparks. I don't see them getting right to put forth much of an effort in this mismatch. The Sparks are also physically drained. This is their fourth game in six days, fifth in eight days. The last four all have been away from home LA is 2-6 ATS following a loss. The Sparks have failed to cover in four of their last five visits to Washington D.C.

The Mystics are one of the five best teams in the WNBA. They are at least two levels higher than the Sparks. Washington defeated Las Vegas by 10 points at home this past Tuesday, but then played one of its worst games of the season in a double-digit road loss to the defending champion Sky on Friday. The Mystics rested their superstar, two-time league MVP Elena Delle Donne, in that loss to Chicago. Delle Donne is expected to play against the Sparks.

The Mystics are 6-1 ATS the past seven times versus sub .500 opponents. Unlike the 12-20 Sparks, I see the Mystics being up for this home game. Given their talent and coaching edges that should mean an easy victory.