Nothing against Carlos Rodon, who has pitched well this season. But the Giants aren't playing nearly well enough right now to be laying this high of a price especially on the road.

The Giants, losers of 10 of their last 13 games, take on an old teammate, Madison Bumgarner. San Francisco is averaging a puny 2.6 runs in its last six games. Bumgarner has pitched his best at home, giving up two runs or less in seven of his eight home starts.

If you discount a 4-0 loss to the Padres, the Diamondbacks are averaging 7.8 runs during their last five games.

Certainly the Diamondbacks are capable of upsetting the Giants given San Francisco's struggles, but I'll lay a short price to have the insurance of 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Arizona would have a winning record in its last 18 games if given 1 1/2 runs.

This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky.

Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5.

The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested.

Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out.

Both Edmonton and Hamilton are 0-3 on the season. But these are different types of 0-3.

Rebuilding Edmonton averages 18 points a game and has the worst defense in the CFL.

Hamilton's three losses have come to Calgary, Winnipeg and Saskatchewan. Those three opponents have a combined record of 8-1.

Now the Tiger-Cats finally get to step down in class - way down in class. This is the Tiger-Cats' second home game. They were nipped by Calgary, 33-30 in overtime, during their first home game.

Hamilton is 14-6-1 ATS in its last 21 home contests.

Edmonton is giving rookie QB Tre Ford his first start. This is a tough road setting for Ford, who replaces Nick Arbuckle. Ford couldn't beat out Arbuckle during preseason. Ford has thrown three passes, completing one throw for eight yards. One of his passes was intercepted. The Elks are going to be without injured James Wilder Jr., their best running back.

Note, too, that the Tiger-Cats have covered the last four times they've played Edmonton.

Losers of three in a row, the Mets haven't dropped four straight games all season. I don't see it happening here. Neither does the oddsmaker, who has made the Mets close to a 2-to-1 favorite to beat the Rangers.

I see this as a kill spot for New York. So I'm going to knock down that heavy juice by backing the Mets on the run line laying 1 1/2 runs.

Why such confidence in the Mets? New York's last two defeats occurred to the powerful Astros. Discount those two games and the Mets would be 24-10 at home. Even with those two losses, the Mets still have won 13 of their last 17 home games.

New York is stepping well down in class facing the below .500 Rangers. Texas is stepping way up in class having played its last six games against the Royals and Nationals, whose combined record is 56-96.

I like the pitching matchup very much, too, It's Glenn Otto versus Chris Bassitt.

Otto has tailed off. He has a 5.31 ERA on the season. Otto's ERA during his last three games is even worse at 6.23. The Nationals got to him for six runs in two innings during his last start this past Sunday. The Mets rank fourth in runs. The Nationals are 24th in runs.

Bassitt has been steady especially when pitching at Citi Field where he has a 3.16 home ERA. Bassitt has a 2.53 ERA in his last three starts and lifetime against the Rangers is 5-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 13 appearances, including nine starts.

Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday.

Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics.

Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue.

There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter.

But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics.

The Giants just concluded a frustrating series against the sizzling Braves where they lost three of four, all by one run. 

I see the Giants taking their frustrations out on the hapless Reds, who have the worst record in the National League, are 11-23 on the road and have lost seven in a row with six of those defeats occurring by more than one run. 

The oddsmaker sees things this way, too. So to avoid the heavy juice, I'm banking on the Giants to win by more than one run. 

Alex Cobb is due to pitch much better. The Reds have below average offensive numbers despite playing in an outstanding hitter's park. Cobb is backed by a far superior bullpen.

The Giants already have faced rookie pitcher Graham Ashcraft, seeing him late last month. Ashcraft pitched well against San Francisco back then. I'm not expecting a repeat. The Giants are averaging five runs per nine innings against righthanders. 

It has been a great run for the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning, but their chance for a three-peat ends Friday night in Colorado.

A combination of an outstanding and hungry Avalanche team and fatigue is too much for Tampa Bay to overcome.

Just like the Celtics, the Lightning have nothing left in the tank this late into the playoffs after enduring a much tougher path than Colorado to reach the finals, including coming back from series deficits to defeat the Maple Leafs and Rangers.

The Avalanche are 7-2 at home in the playoffs. They buried the Lightning, 7-0, in their last home game.

Tampa Bay coach Jon Cooper complaining about the Avalanche having six skaters on the ice when they scored the winning goal in overtime in Game 4 this past Wednesday is sort of hoisting up the white flag. That was a bitter home loss for the Lightning - and the turning point of the series.

The Avalanche have proven to be the superior team. They are fresher and highly motivated. I don't see the Lightning having enough left to hang close.

Through four games of this NBA championship series we have learned several things. The Zig Zag has been in full effect with each team alternating wins and losses and the Celtics are the better team when each team plays well.

The key question is will the Celtics play well in this Game 5?

There's strong evidence they will. Boston has gone 8-3 in road playoff games compared to being 6-5 at home. The Celtics also are 13-1 SU and ATS following a loss. They are 7-0 in the postseason after losing their previous game. This includes winning their final road game against the Bucks and Heat during their two previous series.

The Celtics just seem to play smarter and with more urgency in these crucial road spots.

Stephen Curry had a game for the ages in Game 4 scoring 43 points in a 107-97 Golden State win this past Friday. Golden State scored more than 30 percent of its points in that game off turnovers and second chance points.

I don't see the Celtics making so many silly mistakes in Game 5.

Doubtful, too, that Curry can produce another epic performance to match his Game 4 heroics. Curry has been carrying the Warriors. Jayson Tatum and Boston's main backcourt rotation of Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are all capable of playing much better than they did in Game 4 when the four combined to shoot just 28-of-72 (39 percent) from the field.

Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago.

The Cardinals are trying to avoid a sweep here. The pitching matchup is Miles Mikolas versus lefty Shane McClanahan.

I like the Cardinals' chances of hanging in with Mikolas, who has had nine of 10 good starts this season. He's held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 80 percent of his starts. Mikolas has a 3.14 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

McClanahan has pitched well, too, this season. This isn't a play against him, but taking 1 1/2 runs on what I believe is an inflated Rays' price.

The Cardinals have won 20 of their last 27 games against a southpaw starter. If given 1 1/2 runs, St. Louis would be 14-6 in its last 20 games.

Golden State knows how to win, adjust strategy and stay aggressive when it has to. The Warriors have proven that during the past seven years in the postseason. The Celtics aren't at that stage in the biggest games. I trust the Warriors' experience, their superstars and role players. I don't have as much faith in the Celtics' two superstars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, along with the rest of their team.

The Celtics also have a major weakness. They commit too many turnovers. The Warriors have excellent defenders to take advantage if and when the Celtics get careless, reckless and sloppy with the basketball. Getting back ace defender Gary Payton II is a big plus for Golden State. The Warriors scored 33 points directly off Boston's 18 turnovers in Game 2.

The Warriors are due to get better performances from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. They are a combined 18-of-54 shooting from the floor for 33 percent.

If the Celtics aren't hitting their 3-pointers they are in trouble. The Warriors are the more versatile team.

Boston is far from invincible at home. The Celtics lost not one but TWO home games each to the Bucks and Heat in the playoffs.

Even now it seems unreal the Warriors lost to the Celtics in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Golden State hadn't lost an opening series home game in the playoffs in six years. The Warriors entered the fourth quarter beating Boston, 92-80. Until then, the Warriors had outscored their playoff opponents by an average of 25.4 points per 100 possessions during the final period.

The Warriors took their foot off the gas and the Celtics got hot in epic fashion. The result was an improbable, 120-108, Boston victory. Neither is likely to occur in this Game 2.

The Celtics shot 51 percent from the floor in Game 1. They also shot 51 percent from 3-point range making 21 of 41 shots from beyond the arc. Al Horford, Derrick White and Marcus Smart combined to make 15 3-point shots. Yes, Jayson Tatum is due to shoot better than he did in Game 1. But Horford, White and Smart are not going to keep up their way over the top offensive production.

Golden State shot 44 percent from the field in the opening game and 42 percent from 3-point range making 19 of 45 shots from past the arc. The Warriors - the home team - even shot one fewer free throw than the Celtics.

The Warriors are sure to make adjustments. Steve Kerr isn't above trying to go box-and-one and triangle-and-two to keep the Celtics off balance. He has the versatile defenders to do this with Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Andre Iguodala. There's a good chance, too, the Warriors get back from injury, ace defender Gary Payton II.

At 37-15, the Yankees have the best record in baseball. They just pounded the Tigers, 13-0, on Friday. Expect more of the same Saturday so I have no qualms about laying New York on the run line as the Yankees go for their ninth win in their last 11 games.

The Yankees hold both a strong hitting and pitching edge. New York leads the majors in homers and ranks fifth in runs. The Tigers aren't likely to slow down the Yankees' powerful attack starting rookie Beau Brieske. He is 0-4 with a 5.25 ERA and 1.38 WHIP. Brieske has permitted 10 homers in seven starts.

Yankees starter Luis Severino has looked good on his comeback trail. He's 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA. The Yankees are 7-2 in Severino's starts this season with all the victories except one coming by more than one run.

Detroit is last in runs and homers. The Tigers are averaging 2.81 runs a game, which is the lowest in the majors since 1968. Detroit has been even worse on the road averaging 2.2 runs away from home.

The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference.

The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround.

The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively.

I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday.

The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity.

Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble.

Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win.

No team in NBA history has come back from a 3-0 playoff deficit. Don't expect the Mavericks to become the first. 

Dallas staved off elimination by holding off the Warriors, 119-109, at home two days ago. The Mavericks accomplished this by sinking 20 3-point shots on their way to making 46.5 percent of their 3-pointers. 

I can't see Dallas coming close to repeating that hot long-range shooting, which is its key to upsetting Golden State. 

The Mavericks were a below average 3-point shooting team finishing 19th during the regular season. The Warriors rank No. 3 in 3-point defense holding foes to 34.8 percent from beyond the arc. That percentage shrinks to 32.8 percent when the Warriors are playing at home. 

The Warriors are 8-0 at home in the playoffs. They haven't lost two in a row during the postseason in facing the Nuggets, Grizzlies and Mavericks. 

Dallas has failed to cover in five of its last six road games. Luka Doncic doesn't have enough reliable support for the Mavericks to stay close in this one.

The veteran Warriors know how to finish off opponents. Steve Kerr will be focused, something it was tough for him to do after the tragic school shooting in Texas on Tuesday. Doncic is outnumbered by Golden State's many stars and role players. 

I don't see Boston losing a second straight game at home to Miami following its 109-103 loss to the Heat this past Saturday. A Celtics loss would not fit what has been established as a strong pattern. 

The Celtics are 5-0 SU and ATS following a loss with a winning margin of 19.6 points in those games. All of those victories have been by eight or more points. Jayson Tatum had a poor game against Miami on Saturday missing 11 of 14 shots from the floor and committing six turnovers. Tatum has a strong history of coming back strong, too, following an off-game. 

Miami lost a road game following a victory in both of its playoff series against the Hawks and 76ers. The Heat have not strung together two consecutive road victories in the postseason. Miami has lost by seven or more points in 10 of its last 11 defeats. 

Both teams are banged up. Obviously it's a huge bonus for the Celtics if Robert Williams can play and if Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowery P.J. Tucker and Tyler Herro can't go for Miami. But I'm anticipating the Heat will have all of their injured players on the court. It doesn't change my mind that Boston is the right side here. 

The Mavericks have proven resilient all season both on the court and on the sidelines where Jason Kidd has made necessary adjustments. 

So I see the Mavericks bouncing back in this Game 2 after being embarrassed, 112-87, by the Warriors in Game 1 this past Wednesday.

The Mavericks still might not have come down from their great upset Game 7 road win against the Suns this past Sunday. They will now after their deflating opening game blowout loss.

Dallas missed 20 of 28 uncontested 3-point shots. Luka Doncic was held in check, scoring a postseason-low 20 points on only 6-of-18 shooting from the floor. 
The Mavericks were the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. They bounced back from opening game losses to the Jazz and Sun to win those respective series. Kidd has made crucial right adjustments and tweaks all season. My respect for Kidd's coaching has gone way up this season. 

Even with that Game 1 blowout loss, the Mavericks still have covered 11 of the last 15 times against the Warriors. They are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in Golden State.

I'm taking 1 1/2 goals on the puck line in the belief the Oilers will wilt at home under the pressure of a Game 7. Even if they win, it will be by the narrowest of margins.

Edmonton hasn't won a playoff series in five years.

The Kings were an outstanding 23-11-7 on the road during the season. They are 2-1 on the road against the Oilers during this first-round series.

LA still has some veterans remaining from its Stanley Cup winning teams of 2012 and 2014. So the Kings know how to win important games.

The last time the Bucks received this many points was against the Celtics on the road in Game 1 of this series. Milwaukee won that game, 101-89. 

There's a certain yin/yang to this series with the teams alternating victories during the first four games. 

The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. I see Milwaukee keeping this one closer than the point spread indicates. 

Jayson Tatum is a great player. But Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player on the court. 

The Bucks lost Game 4 by eight points because they shot horrible, especially Jrue Holiday, who was 5-of-22 from the floor. The Bucks also were an uncharacteristic 4-of-21 from inside the paint. The Celtics made 50 percent of their field goal attempts in Game 4. The Buck shot only 41 percent from the field. 

I don't see Holiday and Milwaukee's big men shooting nearly as poorly as they did in Game 4. 

Zig and Zag. Ebb and flow. Whatever you want to call it, the pattern often fits during NBA playoff series. I don't see this series being any different.

The Heat took advantage of home-court and Joel Embiid being out to win the first two games of the series. The 76ers returned home, got Embiid back and won the next two games to tie the series at 2-2.

Now it's Miami's turn to hold serve returning home. I have confidence in Heat coach Erik Spoelstra making the right adjustments and for Miami to turn things around at home in this Game 5.

The 76ers are 7-15 ATS following a victory. They have covered only two of their last 10 away games and are 1-6-1 ATS during their past eight games in Miami.

The Heat have covered seven of the last eight times they've been home.

Even if it's just one point, I'm going to back an underdog that is superior. That's the case with the Celtics in Game 4 of their series with the Bucks.

Boston buried Milwaukee by 23 points in Game 2 and should have won Game 3 this past Saturday on the road. The Bucks got a break on a bad call by the official late in the game to hold off the Celtics, 103-101.

The Celtics only lost by two points - and could have easily won - despite Jayson Tatum missing 15 of 19 shots from the floor, while Giannis Antetokounmpo and a number of his teammates had huge games for Milwaukee. Boston is capable of playing much better. The Bucks aren't without Khris Middleton, who is out with an MCL sprain.

The Celtics are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games while the Bucks are 1-7-1 ATS in their past nine home games when taking on a foe with a winning road mark. Note, too, that since the calendar turned 2022 the Celtics are 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS off a loss.

So the track record is there for the Celtics to bounce back with a victory.

While I certainly expect the Warriors to shoot better than they did in their last game, I don't believe the Grizzlies are getting enough respect on the betting line.

Since an opening playoff loss to the Timberwolves, the Grizzlies are 5-2 SU and ATS in the postseason with the two losses each coming by one point.

The Warriors have some outstanding players, but no one is playing at a higher level right now than Ja Morant. He could be in line for another huge performance with the Warriors minus a pair of their defensive standouts in injured Gary Payton II and Andre Iguodala.

The Grizzlies will be without suspended Dillon Brooks, but are expected to get back big man Steven Adams. Memphis has a size advantage on Golden State.

Both teams should be fresh having not played since Tuesday. All the pressure is on the Warriors returning home. Golden State has failed to cover the last four times when favored.

The Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS when going against an opponent with a winning percentage above .600. Memphis is 16-6-1 ATS the past 23 times in an underdog role.

Credit to the Bucks for upsetting the Celtics in Game, 101-89, this past Sunday. 

Dallas has a tremendous track record in these situations. The Mavericks are the No. 2 defensive team in the NBA. Discounting a 126-118 victory, the Mavericks held the Jazz to 95.2 points in five games while winning their series in six games against Utah. The Jazz averaged only one point fewer per game than the Suns did during the regular season.

So I believe the Mavericks can hang within two possessions of Phoenix.

Both teams have been idle since Thursday. They each are at full strength, too.

This isn't a fade on Phoenix, but a bet-on Dallas.

The Mavericks are 42-16-1 ATS during their last 59 road games against a home team with a winning percentage better than .600. Dallas has covered 10 of its last 14 road games when getting points and also is 21-8 ATS the past 29 times when playing an above .500 opponent.

The Nuggets gained a measure of respect by beating the Warriors, 126-121, at home this past Sunday. That kept the Warriors from sweeping Denver. 

Considering that Joel Embiid may not play, or will be limited if he does, this is getting a lot of points in a do-or-die spot for the Raptors.

Toronto isn't ready to roll over after staving off playoff elimination by defeating the 76ers, 110-102, in Game 4 this past Saturday. If the Raptors wouldn't have lost in overtime in Game 3 this series would be tied 2-2 instead of the 76ers leading 3-1. The Raptors never trailed in Game 3 until overtime. 

Embiid is dealing with a torn ligament in his right thumb. 

The Raptors have covered 69 percent of the time during the past 39 times they've played an above .500 opponent. The 76ers were a better road team than home team during the regular season. 

Once again a team played great in the first game after losing a star player. That pattern fit the Suns in Game 3 of their series against the Pelicans when they won, 114-111, on the road minus superstar Devin Booker this past Friday. 

That gave the Suns a 2-1 series lead. Booker remains out with a hamstring injury. The Pelicans won't be feeling sorry for the Suns. This is the season for New Orleans. 
The Pelicans have the two best scorers on the court with Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum now that Booker is out. The Suns beat the Pelicans in the paint during Game 3 outscoring them, 64-40. 

New Orleans center Jonas Valanciunas had an off-game and underrated forward Jaxson Hayes was ejected in the second quarter. Larry Nance Jr. also didn't play well. I expect those three to at least hold their own in this pivotal Game 4. A loss here at home by the Pelicans puts them down 3-1 in the series with the next game in Phoenix. 

I believe the Pelicans will make this a tough series on the Suns - and that requires a victory here. Phoenix has failed to cover six of the last eight times it has been favored. The Suns were far less effective during the regular season when they were missing Booker. This time it catches up to them. 

Even though they are down 2-0 in their series against the 76ers, I see no panic from the Raptors and their coach, Nick Nurse.

I like Nurse a lot. Enough to feel confident backing the Raptors to beat the 76ers in Game 3 now that they are back in Toronto after losing the first two games in Philadelphia. 

Even though the Raptors are more banged-up than the 76ers, I don't see a talent gap between the two teams. 

Toronto actually outscored the 76ers by nine points during the fourth quarter of Game 2. Nurse is known for making shrewd adjustments and the Raptors should be super intense while the 76ers can't help but subconsciously let up. 

The 76ers failed to cover in their last five regular season road games. They also are 1-5 ATS during their last six visits to Toronto. 

Arizona has become an auto-fade on the puck line. The combination of injuries, inexperience and just wanting to get their season finished have rendered the Coyotes noncompetitive.

The Coyotes are 2-13 in their last 15 games with their only victories during this time frame coming against non-playoff teams the Blackhawks and Sharks.

Arizona has lost six in a row. All of these defeats have been by at least four goals! In fact, 12 of the Coyotes' last 13 losses have occurred by multiple goals.

The Hurricanes can't afford to sleep against the Coyotes being in a tight race with the Rangers for the Metropolitan Division title. Carolina has beaten the Coyotes during seven of their last nine visits.

This is a kill spot for the Avalanche.

Colorado is tied with Florida for the most points in the NHL at 110. The Avalanche have won six in a row. They've been idle since Saturday.

The Kings halted a three-game losing streak with a 5-2 victory against the hapless Blackhawks Tuesday night. The Kings' reward? They go into high altitude to face the rested and ready Avalanche.

Not only are the Kings playing without rest, but it's their third game in four days and they have a cluster injury problem on defense. One of the defensemen out for LA is Drew Doughty.

The Avalanche has dominated the Kings winning the past eight times against them.

 I like the way the Clippers are playing. LA has won five in a row beating the Bucks and Suns during this span. 

The Bucks dominate the Bulls when playing in Chicago covering 10 of the last 11 times. Look for that trend to hold up in this meeting.

Milwaukee is in circle-the-wagons mode having lost two in a row, both at home. The Bucks are at full strength and are at their best laying points on the road covering seven of the past nine times as road chalk. The Bulls are struggling defensively and are only 1-10 ATS the past 11 times when taking on foes with a winning percentage above .600. 

The Bulls have allowed an average of 128.5 points during their last two games. 

Milwaukee has beaten the Bulls in all three games this season, including 126-98 on March 22 during the past meeting. 

Despite all the upsets, the NCAA Tournament championship game comes down to two familiar teams - North Carolina and Kansas.

No surprise the Jayhawks have reached the title game being the No. 1 Midwest seed.

Kansas deserves to be here. The Jayhawks rank in the top 30 in scoring and have the 20th best 3-point defense. They blew out Villanova in their semifinal game Saturday. The Jayhawks can be devastating both in the paint and from the perimeter.

North Carolina isn't as strong defensively and relies on its 3-point shooting. So this isn't a good matchup, nor spot, for the Tar Heels. North Carolina has way overachieved being a No. 8 seed. The Tar Heels reached their pinnacle with an upset semifinal victory against arch-rival Duke.

Each of the Tar Heels' last five defeats have come by nine or more points. So a Kansas blowout would not be a surprise.

Toronto needs to be careful here. The Raptors are fat and happy having just concluded a 4-0 homestand with the last two games being a blowout of the Timberwolves and a huge overtime win against the Celtics.

Now the Raptors take to the road to face the lowly Magic. The last time the Raptors were on the road they lost by 14 points to the Bulls on March 21.

Orlando has covered six of the last eight times it has been a 'dog. Toronto is 4-10 ATS the past 14 times playing below .400 opponents.

Both meetings this season have been close. The Raptors edged the Magic, 110-109, back in late October and Orlando defeated the Raptors, 103-97, on March 4.

Paul George played for the first time in three-plus months against the Jazz this past Tuesday helping the Clippers defeat Utah. LA rallied from 25 points to win, 121-115. George looked great in scoring 34 points in 31 minutes.

Three things about that, though.

The game was played in LA. The Clippers had lost five in a row before that victory and George still may not have his full conditioning.

The Clippers are 1-5 in their last six road games, 2-4 ATS, with their lone victory during this span coming against the lowly Pistons by four points. The Clippers lost by 12 points to the Nuggets and by 29 to the Jazz during their past two away contests.

If George isn't at peak efficiency - and it's hard to imagine he would be playing in just his second game back - the Bulls would have the three best players on the court in DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic.

Chicago is 26-10 at home. The Bulls are 23-7 ATS the past 30 times as a home favorite. They beat the Raptors by 14 points and Cavaliers by 10 during their last two home contests.

The Clippers are 16-23 on the road. They are 1-6 ATS the past seven times when facing an above .500 team.

This handicap is simple. The Hornets are playing well and have been huge money-makers on the road.

The Nets are off a big Saturday night road victory against the Heat. They are at their point spread worst as a home favorite.

Charlotte is 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in its last seven games. Among the Hornets' victories during this span are wins against the Jazz, Mavericks and Hawks. Charlotte is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 road contests.

Brooklyn has performed much better away from home. The Nets are 16-19 at home. The Hornets have a better road mark at 18-18 than Brooklyn does at home. 
The Nets are dreadful as home favorites failing to cover 22 of the past 27 times (18 percent). 

This is a bad matchup for Miami due to Kansas' height, athleticism and transition defense.

The Hurricanes thrive in transition. That's not going to happen against the Jayhawks, though.

Providence hung against Kansas in its 66-61 loss this past Friday, by getting 16 offensive rebounds. Miami doesn't have the size to do that. The Hurricanes aren't good rebounders on either side of the court ranking 311th in defensive rebounds. Kansas is plus 32 on the boards during the NCAA Tournament.

Miami will need to make its share of 3-pointers. That hasn't been happening for the Hurricanes. They are 13-of-40 from beyond the arc during the tournament.

Arkansas has knocked off outstanding teams all season, culminating with the Razorbacks taking down Gonzaga. 

All the Razorbacks do is win games - 18-3 in their last 21 - and cover spreads - 15-5-1 ATS during this span. 

I get the Mike Krzyewski narrative that things are fated for the Blue Devils to win the national championship in this Krzyewski's final season. I admit, too, that I get a little suspicious whenever I see a referee smile at Krzyewski. 

But I have to go with my numbers and matchup analysis. And it doesn't add up to the Blue Devils being favorites in this point spread range let alone favorites at all. 
I've always liked Eric Musselman. He's doing a fantastic job with Arkansas. He's certainly no slouch as a coach - and his teams cover spreads.

Duke bettors often have to deal with inflated lines. The Blue Devils have failed to cover seven of their last nine NCAA Tournament games. 

Duke is as talented as ever. The Blue Devils don't have that much experience, though. Musselman devised an effective plan to limit Gonzaga star Chet Holmgren. The Razorbacks held Holmgren to 11 points. They held the Zags to nearly 20 points below their season average.

Musselman has had a day and a half to come up with something to thwart Duke star Paolo Bachero. I trust him and I trust Arkansas' defense. 

This is my NBA March Game of the Month.

The 31-42 Knicks are back to being a bottom-feeder this season. The only way they can win is to catch an opponent in a letdown spot. That's what the Knicks did on Wednesday upsetting the Hornets. 

It's not a fluke the Timberwolves are 42-30. They are a much improved team with a lot of young talent.

But I want the Mavericks going for me in this matchup.

Dallas is trying to prevent its first three-game losing streak in more than three months following consecutive losses to the 76ers and Hornets. The Mavericks are 13-3 ATS following a loss. 

Minnesota is off a huge 138-119 home victory against the defending world champion Bucks. 

The Timberwolves defeated the Mavericks in the first meeting this season, 111-105, at home on Dec. 19. The Mavericks beat the Timberwolves, 114-102, in Dallas two days later. It was the eighth time in their last 11 visits to Dallas that the Timberwolves failed to cover.

Dallas is 23-12 at home this season. The Timberwolves are 18-18 on the road. The Timberwolves are 1-5 ATS the past six times they've been a road 'dog. 

The Timberwolves will host the Mavericks on Friday. Dallas has the history, motivation and situation to hold court today by covering this small number. 

Texas beat Kansas and Tennessee this season. The Longhorns certainly are capable of defeating Purdue.

The key is the Longhorns' ninth-ranked defense and the tremendous coaching of Chris Beard.

Purdue coach Matt Painter has gone against Beard twice in the NCAA Tournament and lost both times. Beard bested Painter when he was at Arkansas Little Rock and at Texas Tech in a Sweet 16 victory against Purdue in 2018. Beard led Texas Tech to the NCAA Tourney title game 2019 and Elite Eight in 2018.

I trust Beard to neutralize 7-foot-4 Zach Edey inside and fluster Jaden Ivey forcing him to do too much. On the offensive end, Beard's motion offense can exploit Purdue's defensive liabilities, freeing up Timmy Allen and others to get open looks. The Boilermakers rank 207th in 3-point defense.

Purdue is just 1-8-2 ATS in its last 11 games and 7-18-2 ATS the past 27 times when favored. Purdue had failed to cover in its last six games before burying an overmatched Yale squad in its first-round NCAA Tourney game.

Great upset win by New Mexico State beating Connecticut, 70-63, as a six-point 'dog on Thursday. That halted a 12-game NCAA Tourney losing streak for the Aggies and gave them their first NCAA Tourney victory in 29 years.

Teddy Allen scored 37 points to spark the Lobos. That was 13 points more than his season average. Jabari Rice averages 13.7 points. No other New Mexico State player averages even eight points a game.

Realistically the Lobos have accomplished a major goal. They not only made the NCAA Tournament, but finally won a game.

Arkansas has been a covering machine going 11-3-1 ATS (79%) in its last 15 games. The Razorbacks, however, didn't cover their opening NCAA Tourney game beating Vermont, 75-71, as a five-point favorite. Teams that won but didn't cover in their opening NCAA Tourney game are 57 percent against the spread in their second-round game during the past 229 instances.

New Mexico State still could be floating on Cloud 9 while Arkansas knows what it's like to go deep into the NCAA Tourney reaching the Elite Eight last year before losing to eventual champion Baylor.

There are many red flags waving against the Badgers in this matchup. Wisconsin is 1-8 ATS the last nine times it has been favored. The Badgers enter the tournament losers of two in a row, including a shocking home loss to Nebraska. So they are not in peak form by any means.

Johnny Davis, the Big Ten Player of the Year, was hurt against Nebraska and was terrible when he returned against Michigan State missing 16 of 19 shots from the field in Wisconsin's 69-63 loss to the Spartans in the Big Ten Conference Tournament. If Davis isn't 100 percent, the Badgers are in huge trouble.

Colgate has come on very strong winning 19 of its last 20 games, including the last 15. The unsung Raiders have the veteran savvy, scoring depth and 3-point shooting to defeat the Badgers straight-up. Colgate has made the NCAA Tournament in three of the past four years. The Raiders have five players scoring in double figures and rank No. 4 in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin gave up the highest percentage of open 3-point shots in the Big Ten.

The Raiders are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games. Wisconsin is overhyped right now. The line is inflated, too, because the game is in Milwaukee. But Colgate has the experience to handle that.

I thought the Mid-American Conference was strong this season. Toledo was the class of that conference going 26-7, including 17-3 in league. But the Rockets were upset in the semifinals of the MAC Tournament by Akron. So the Rockets didn't get an NCAA Tournament berth. Instead they are in the NIT.

Unfair? Probably. The key is how will the Rockets react? That's a difficult question. I do think the Rockets, though, will win this game. They catch a huge break getting to be the host team. Toledo is 13-1 at home this season. The Rockets are 12-5 ATS the past 17 times when favored.

Dayton is a slow-paced Atlantic-10 Conference team that averages 12 points fewer per game than Toledo. The Flyers are tough defensively. But they don't have the scoring to keep up with the Rockets with the game in Toledo. The Rockets are the sixth-highest scoring team in the nation at 81.5 points. They rank 16th in field goal percentage and 21st in free throw percentage. They also are 16th in the country in assist/turnover ratio.

Every year there are great spots in the NIT featuring favorites who are overpriced because they are off disappointing seasons and suffer letdowns in their first round game. 

These have been two hot, play-on teams. At this point spread range, though, I have to get involved and back Long Beach State.

All the Beach have done is go 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games. They've won eight of their last 10 games and are 20-7 ATS the past 27 times when getting points.

Santa Barbara is the No. 5 seed in this Big West Tournament. Long Beach State is the No. 1 seed.

Boston playing well. But so is Detroit except the Pistons don't get nearly the attention the Celtics do.

The Celtics are looking for their sixth consecutive victory. The Pistons are looking for their 10th straight point spread cover.

Cade Cunningham is making a spirited bid to earn Rookie of the Year honors scoring 20 or more points in his last five games.

The Pistons upset the Celtics, 112-111, at Boston on Feb. 16 as 12-point 'dogs. Now the line is even higher. That was the seventh straight time Detroit has covered against Boston.

The Celtics host the Mavericks on Sunday in a much more challenging game. So a Boston letdown/look ahead situation could exist. Even if the Celtics take this matchup seriously, the Pistons are playing well enough and the line is inflated enough to back Detroit.

A case of food poisoning and lack of defense makes Duke an unattractive favorite. The Blue Devils lost at home to North Carolina in their final regular season game and were unimpressive in an 88-79 ACC Tournament quarterfinal win against undermanned Syracuse yesterday.

This is what Duke coach Mike Kryzewski said following the Syracuse game: ''We're not playing very good defense right now. We did not against North Carolina and we did not in this game. We're missing a lot of assignments. Kryzewski also said some Duke players were dealing with food poisoning.

Miami is 9-3 ATS as an underdog this season, including upsetting Duke, 76-74, on the road in January.

It's getting to the crucial stage for the Spurs. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row while falling 3 1/2 games out of postseason contention.

San Antonio has played nine of its last 10 games on the road, though. This is the first of seven straight home contests. They are 6-2-1 ATS the past nine times when favored.

The Lakers are off a satisfying, 124-116, home win against the Warriors this past Saturday. LeBron James scored 56 points in that game. James is a freak of nature, but he is 37. How much will he have left for this game?

Prior to defeating the Warriors, the Lakers had gone 1-7 SU, 2-5-1 ATS.

The Spurs have a solid bench and rate a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich.

Just because Hartford is playing in its home arena doesn't mean the Hawks should be favored against this opponent, let alone by this many points. 

Albany is 13-17. Hartford is 11-19. 

The teams split their two meetings this season. Albany beat the Hawks on the road, 71-52. Hartford got its revenge this past Tuesday defeating the Great Danes, 67-55. The Hawks shot 13 more free throws in that contest. They also made 13 of 24 3-pointers for 54 percent. Hartford shoots 37.7 percent from beyond the arc on the season. 

The Great Danes are 8-1-2 ATS in their past 11 away games. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering six of the last seven. 

UNLV has come on strong, but the Rebels still failed to finish among the top four teams in the Mountain West Conference. This is UNLV's final regular season game and last matchup before the Mountain West Conference Tournament.

It's a flat spot for the Rebels.

Not so for New Mexico, which has revenge for a 29-point loss to the Rebels earlier in the season.

The Lobos have a winning home record. The Rebels have a losing road mark.

Richmond defeated St. Bonaventure, 71-61, earlier this season. I see the Spiders repeating that performance in the rematch. Taking points is a nice bonus.

St. Bonaventure began conference play slowly before rolling off seven straight wins. However, the Bonnies' streak was snapped in brutal fashion with a 74-51 road loss to VCU this past Tuesday. The Bonnies were minus Osun Osunniyi in that game due to an ankle injury and could be missing him again in this matchup. He averages 11 points and is the Bonnies' leading rebounder.

Richmond is experienced, solid on both sides of the ball, ranks ninth nationally in turnover rate and hasn't lost two straight games since Dec. 30-Jan. 2.

The Spiders also are road tested going 14-5-1 ATS during their past 20 away games, including 8-3 ATS in their past 11. St. Bonaventure is 4-9 ATS the past 13 times against opponents with a winning record.

Campbell is the better team. Power rating-wise, I have the Fighting Camels as a mid-size favorite at a neutral site in this Big South Tournament matchup.

Presbyterian is 12-19. Campbell is 15-12.

The Fighting Camels have a far superior defense giving up fewer than 62 points per game. They rank 22nd in the nation defensively. Presbyterian is one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the country.

Minnesota is much improved this season. That's evident by the oddsmaker opening this game in the pick range. 

But I really want Golden State in this situation. The Warriors are coming off a frustrating, 107-101, home loss to the Mavericks from Sunday. Golden State let a 21-point lead slip in that game. Needless to say, Steve Kerr was not happy. 

The Timberwolves are off a satisfying, 127-122, road win against the Cavaliers last night. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS the past five times when playing without rest. 

This is a kill spot for Ohio State. The Buckeyes are looking for redemption after getting upset this past Sunday at Maryland.

Ohio State still has much to play for trying to secure a top-four seed into the Big Ten Tournament and the bye into the quarterfinals that goes with it. The Buckeyes are 12-1 at home this season, including 8-1 in the Big Ten. They also are 8-2 ATS following a point spread loss.

Nebraska has been bad again this season going 8-21 with a 2-16 Big Ten record. The Cornhuskers, though, are in a rare flat spot having stunned Penn State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog, 93-70, this past Sunday.

San Diego State has the No. 2 defense in the country. I have great respect for the Aztecs. But I'm not buying Wyoming as a home underdog.

The Cowboys have won all 14 of their home games this season. They have the two best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado. Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points per game than San Diego State and also has a respectable defense giving up 65.6 points, which ranks 74th, and is 24th in 3-point defense.

Wyoming is 23-5 overall and 12-3 in the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State is 18-7 overall and 10-4 in the Mountain West.

The Cowboys are proven, too, against good competition going 22-8-1 ATS versus opponents with a winning record.

Barring winning the Pac-12 Conference Tournament, Colorado won't be going to the NCAA Tournament. So this revenge spot is the Buffaloes' game of the year.
It didn't show in the first meeting because the Buffaloes missed 15 of their 20 3-point shots in a 21-point loss, but Colorado can hang within single digits of Arizona based on their size and home situation. 

The Wildcats have a bigger game on deck playing at USC. 

Colorado has been playing well with five victories in its last six games. This is the Buffaloes' final home game of the season so it's senior night. This has been a home team series with the host covering six of the last seven times.
 
The Buffaloes normally shoot much better from beyond the arch than they did during the first meeting. Arizona is just average defending against the 3-pointer. 

San Diego State is in fourth place in the Mountain West Conference. The Aztecs just lost to first-place Boise State by one point this past Tuesday. The Aztecs have second-place Wyoming on deck following this opponent - San Jose State.

San Jose State is last in the conference.

So San Diego State can't be blamed if they take the Spartans for granted while in the middle of a conference sandwich.

The Aztecs haven't been good lately in this role. They've been favored by 14 points or more three times in their past six games. They are 0-3 ATS in those games.

The Aztecs' 0-3 ATS mark laying big points isn't a fluke. San Diego State plays great defense, but only averages 65.1 points a game. That ranks 306th.

San Jose State hung in during the first meeting between the two teams losing, 72-62, on Feb. 9 as a 17-point home 'dog.

The Spartans should be loose and confident having upset New Mexico, 71-55, as a 5 1/2-point home 'dog during their previous game. That snapped a 14-game losing streak. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games and have covered in five of their past six road contests.

Northern Arizona isn't very good at 9-18. But 6-20 Idaho State is downright terrible. I find this a short number to lay with the Lumberjacks at home.

Idaho State ranks 326th in scoring at 64.2 points a game. The Bengals are just as bad defensively ranking 340th in defensive field goal percentage.

The Lumberjacks have covered six of their last eight games.

Chattanooga rolled past East Tennessee State, 82-52, as a 7 1/2-point home favorite on Dec. 31.

The Mocs may not win by 30 points again, but they still should easily win this game.

Chattanooga is the top team in the Southern Conference with a 22-7 overall record and 12-4 league mark. East Tennessee State ranks eighth out of 10 teams in the Southern Conference with a 6-10 league mark. The Buccaneers are under .500 on the season overall.

The Mocs are 21-5-1 ATS the past 27 times playing a below .500 opponent. They also have covered 67 percent of their last 55 road games. The Mocs are 5-1 in their last six road contests.

Chattanooga clearly is superior to the Buccaneers outscoring them per game while giving up an average of eight fewer points a game.

The Buccaneers have revenge and senior night playing in their final home game of the season. But Chattanooga isn't going to lack motivation. The Mocs are on a rare two-game losing skid falling twice at home as big favorites during their past two games. They haven't lost three in a row all season. Chattanooga is 20-7-1 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game.

East Tennessee State defeated The Citadel in its last game. The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread six of the past seven times following a victory.

I'll willingly accept this many points with a desperate Michigan State and Tom Izzo. The Spartans are 1-4 in their last five games. They are 8-3 ATS following a loss.

Iowa, in contrast to Michigan State, has won four of its last five. The Hawkeyes are averaging 90.5 points in their last five games.

This has contributed to an inflated line, though.

Points and possessions matter in the rugged Big Ten. The Spartans haven't been an underdog of more than three points in any of their 15 Big Ten games. The Hawkeyes aren't that much better than the Spartans - if they are even better at all.

I don't trust Penn State's weak offense, nor do I trust the Nittany Lions on the road.

Penn State ranks 306th in scoring. Maryland averages five more points per game than the Nittany Lions.

The Terrapins hold a backcourt edge with Eric Ayala and Fatts Russell, both of whom average more points than any player on Penn State.

The Nittany Lions are 1-6 in their Big Ten Conference road games. They have lost their last five away Big Ten matchups.

Maryland has looked good recently. The Terrapins nearly upset Purdue on the road two games ago falling by one point. Maryland then buried Nebraska, 90-74, in its last game hitting 52 percent from the floor while turning the ball over just four times.

The Terrapins have proven themselves at home knocking off Illinois there and losing to Wisconsin by only one point.

Can the Wolverines win road games against Iowa and Wisconsin in a span of four days? I say no.

Michigan upset the Hawkeyes this past Thursday, 84-79. Now, though, the Wolverines draw the 15th-ranked Badgers also on the road.

Wisconsin gives up the fewest turnovers in the nation at 8.6. The Badgers' traditionally strong defense is coming on, too, giving up an average of 63.2 points during the last four games.

Michigan has faced five ranked teams this season - and lost four of those five games.

Kent State is an upper level Mid-American Conference team. But Ohio leads the MAC and is better than the Golden Flashes. So I'm not buying Kent State opening as the favorite.

The Bobcats are 22-4, including 8-3 on the road. They have a better road mark than Kent State's home record. The Golden Flashes are 16-9, 8-4 at home.

Ohio took care of Kent State, 80-72, back on Jan. 7. Bobcats star Mark Sears had a big game with 28 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the floor while grabbing six rebounds and dishing off three assists.

Sears averages 20.1 points, which ranks in the top 20 in the country. He's a tremendous shooter. Ohio ranks 15th in the country in turnover margin and first in the MAC at plus 4.23.

Kent State can't match Sears, nor Ohio's ball protection.

Ohio is ranked 87th in the latest NET rankings. Kent State is ranked 140th.

After suffering their worst loss in seven years losing by 48 points to the Celtics this past Tuesday, I see the 76ers coming out super intense against Milwaukee.

I don't see another Fresno State loss happening here with the Bulldogs home to the Rebels, who are 3-8 ATS during their past 11 road contests. Fresno State has covered nine of its last 11 home games. 

UNLV has been hot from beyond the arc lately. Don't look for that to continue, though, against a Fresno State defense that ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 57.9 points. 

The Bulldogs shoot better from the floor than the Rebels and also are the superior free throw shooting team. Fresno State beat UNLV, 73-68, at UNLV on Jan. 14. That was the seventh time in the last 10 meetings the Bulldogs have defeated the Rebels. 

These teams met on Jan. 17. Hofstra was an eight-point home favorite and beat Drexel, 71-68. Hofstra is the fourth-best free throw shooting team in the nation at 80 percent. The Pride shot just 10 free throws in that game and also made only 4 of 16 3-pointers.

Hofstra is 14-9 and in third place in the Colonial Athletic Association at 7-4. Drexel is 11-10 and 6-5 in the CAA.

There is a point spread difference of around 10 points in this game compared to the earlier meeting. Hofstra is the better team so I'm attracted to taking this many points.

The Pride just defeated UNC-Wilmington in its last game three days ago. Drexel went against Wilmington on Jan. 31 and lost, 70-63.

Cleveland may appear to be in better current form than the Spurs. But the Spurs have played a much more difficult schedule recently and are in an excellent situational spot here.

San Antonio defeated Houston in its last game. That was this past Friday. The Spurs were 1-4 entering that matchup. But their previous five opponents were the Heat, Warriors, Suns, Bulls and Grizzlies.

Cleveland is 6-2 in its last eight games. The Cavaliers' last five games, though, have come against weak opponents - Pacers, Hornets, Rockets, Pelicans and Pistons.

The Cavaliers acquired Caris LeVert, but still may be without underrated Darius Garland, who has missed the last four games because of a sore back.

The Spurs will be playing for the first time in five days. That's more than ample time for Gregg Popovich to come up with a strong game plan for this specific opponent not to mention ensure a lot of energy from the Spurs. San Antonio is 18-8 ATS the past 26 times when playing on 3 or more days rest for a long-term mark of 69 percent.

San Antonio also has covered nine of the last 13 times it has been a road 'dog. Cleveland is 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has been favored.

Both Utah State and Wyoming are playing well. But the Cowboys are the superior team and are at home with a short point spread.

Wyoming is a perfect 10-0 at home. The Cowboys have outscored opponents by an average of 20.3 points at home.

The Cowboys average 84.1 points at home. That's 12 points higher than what Utah State averages on the road.

The Aggies have won five in a row so perhaps that's why the spread is shorter than I anticipated. However, four of those victories were achieved at home. The Aggies also played some weak competition during this time frame posting wins against UNLV, San Jose State and Air Force.

Utah State has a losing road mark.

Wyoming is 10-1 in its last 11 games and 19-3 overall. The Cowboys trail Boise State by one-half game for the top spot in the Mountain West Conference. They can't afford a loss here especially following their tremendous, 61-59, road upset win against Fresno State this past Sunday night.

The Cowboys feature two of the best players in the conference, Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

These are two of the best teams in the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the sixth-best defense in the country.

But Wyoming is the more complete team. Fresno State also is coming off two easy matchups.

The Cowboys have won nine of their last 10 games. They are 26-9 ATS in their last 35 road games, including covering the past four. This has been a road team series with the visitor going 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times.

Wyoming averages nearly 10 more points pre game than Fresno State. The Bulldogs have one of the best players in the conference, Orlando Robinson. But Wyoming has two of the three best players on the court in Graham Ike and Hunter Maldonado.

I find this to be a buy-low spot on the Trail Blazers following Portland's, 96-93, home loss to the lowly Thunder last night. 

There aren't many easy games in the Big 12 Conference. And this one isn't going to be easy for Texas Tech especially after the Red Raiders won an emotional, 77-64, home game against 23rd-ranked Texas this past Tuesday.

West Virginia is in a desperate situation with six straight losses and possibly missing its best player, point guard Taz Sherman. He's in concussion protocol and questionable for this game.

With or without Sherman, though, I like West Virginia in this spot.

The Mountaineers played well in their last game, an 81-77 road loss to Baylor this past Monday. They shot a season-best 54.2 percent from the field. Look for the Mountaineers to give Texas Tech their best punch. I doubt the Red Raiders can produce another ''A'' game after beating Texas.

Should be a great game: Ohio at Toledo to decide the Mid-American Conference and No. 1 conference tournament seed.

That game, though, is Tuesday. Before that Toledo is being asked to cover what I see as an inflated road number against Ball State.

The Rockets have won nine in a row. But this definitely is a look-ahead spot for them, which could produce a flat effort.

Ball State had won and covered three in a row until getting buried by Ohio in its last game. The Cardinals average a healthy 74 points a game.

The Cardinals have covered eight of their last 11 games. The Rockets have allowed 173 3-point field goals. Ball State has made 180 3-pointers, ranking 69th in 3-point accuracy.

The combination of their 3-point shooting, home-court and catching Toledo in a flat spot should mean a cover for the Cardinals.

I really hope Dejounte Murray plays. But even if he doesn't the Spurs have enough depth and a huge edge in coaching to cover this short number against the Rockets. San Antonio is in stop-the-pain mode losers of three in a row.

The Rockets enter San Antonio fat and happy after a 115-104 home victory against Cleveland this past Wednesday. Houston has lost its previous four games.

The Rockets are 6-17 ATS the past 23 times as a 'dog. They are 2-6-1 ATS during their past nine meetings against the Spurs.

Houston was no match for San Antonio when the teams just met on Jan. 25. The Spurs buried the Rockets, 134-104, dominating the paint with 82 points.

Every point figures to matter in this matchup of elite defenses. Texas has the No. 1 defense in the nation holding foes to 54.5 points. Defense is a Chris Beard trademark as Texas Tech well knows about its former coach. The Red Raiders allow the 19th-fewest points in the country. 

So I'm attracted to the road 'dog receiving this many points. This has been an underdog series with the 'dog covering eight of the last 11 times. 

I trust Beard's defense and the Longhorns' motion offense to find some open looks from 3-point range. I also trust the Longhorns to control their turnover count facing Texas Tech's full-court pressure. 

It comes down to what should be a low-scoring matchup, as the oddsmaker anticipates, where Texas definitely can stay within two possessions. 

The teams just met 10 days ago in Golden State. The Rockets nearly pulled the upset losing, 105-103.

That victory was the start of a five-game win streak for the Warriors. Golden State has won three of those games by a total of eight points.

The Warriors are off a big emotional win against the Nets from two days ago. They are at the Spurs on Tuesday in a revenge spot.

So this looms as a potential flat spot for the Warriors, who remain without Draymond Green.

Houston only has played twice since losing to the Warriors 10 days ago. The Rockets' last game was this past Friday. That should ensure a rested, full effort and an added bonus if Kevin Porter Jr. and Christian Wood are able to return to the lineup.

Notre Dame is hot, winning nine of its last 10 games. But Virginia is just the team to beat the Irish.

The Cavaliers are a bad matchup for Notre Dame as evidenced by Virginia defeating the Irish 16 of 18 times in the series, including the past six times.

Notre Dame relies on its perimeter shooting especially from long range. The Irish rank 27th in 3-point percentage. Notre Dame is very much a rhythm team.

Virginia disrupts that rhythm. No team plays slower than the Cavaliers. Virginia's defense is at its best clamping down on open shots, especially catch-and-shoot 3-point shots like Notre Dame likes to launch.

On the flip side, Virginia guards Kihei Clark and Reece Beekman are adept at patiently beating half-court sets. Given four days to prepare, Virginia's elite coach Tony Bennett should have an excellent game plan.

Virginia is 5-3 SU and ATS in its last eight road/neutral site games. Notre Dame is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 home games versus foes who have an above .500 road mark.

Kudos to the Clippers for coming back from a 35-point deficit against the Wizards to pull out a victory three days ago. That was the second-largest comeback in NBA history. 

Kudos again to the Clippers to beat the Magic two days ago in an obvious letdown spot after trailing by 14 points against Orlando. 

Now, though, the Clippers step way up in class against the team with the best record in the Eastern Conference - Miami. The Heat are 17-5 at home this season. They have covered nine of their last 11 games. 

LA is 10-13 on the road even with its consecutive away victories versus the Wizards and Magic. This marks the Clippers' third game in four days and sixth road game in 10 days. 

The Heat have taken off now that Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro are back in the lineup joining Jimmy Butler. The Clippers are missing their two best players, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Also out is their third-leading scorer, Marcus Morris. 

I see a double-digit Heat victory. 

Penny Hardaway was one of my favorite NBA players when he played for the Orlando Magic. But as a head college basketball coach, Hardaway has to rank among the bottom 10. He actually could be in the argument as the worst coach.

Yes Hardaway's Memphis team has had injuries. But the Tigers have underachieved so much they may not even make the NCAA Tournament. Memphis 5-12-1 ATS on the season. The Tigers are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

Until beating Tulsa in their last game, the Tigers had lost three in a row.

East Carolina is off an embarrassing, 79-36, road loss to Houston this past Saturday. I find this line inflated because of that loss.

Before that defeat to the Cougars, East Carolina had lost in overtime as an underdog to Central Florida and upset Memphis, 72-71, as a 7-point home 'dog. That was less than two weeks ago. Memphis shot 50 percent from the floor in that game while East Carolina made 40 percent of its field goals. Yet the Pirates still pulled it out.

The Pirates may be without third-leading scorer Brandon Suggs, who scored the game-winner against Memphis in the first meeting. The Tigers, though, are far more banged-up. They will be without their leading scorer, Deandre Williams, and likely NBA lottery pick and leading team rebounder Jalen Duren. He is questionable with a hand injury. Also out are Landers Nolley II and Jayden Hardaway. Nolley leads the Tigers in assists.

No player is performing better lately than Joel Embiid, who has scored at least 38 points and pulled down 12 rebounds in four straight games. The 76ers catch the Lakers playing their fourth road game in six days.

The Lakers welcomed Anthony Davis back with a 106-96 victory against the Nets two days ago. Davis, though, is working his way into the lineup. I don't see the Lakers being able to sustain that momentum against this tough opponent. LA is 7-20 AT following a cover.

The Lakers are 2-1 on their current road trip having opened with a victory against the Magic, However, during their previous four away contests the Lakers lost to the Heat by six points, were blown out by the Nuggets by 37 points, lost to the Kings by nine and fell to the Grizzlies by five points.

The Kings should be fired-up after being embarrassed, 128-75, by the Celtics last night. The Kings ended up playing all 13 of their rostered players. No Sacramento player reached the 30-minute mark. So fatigue should not be a factor. 

Prior to that loss to the Celtics, the Kings had gone a respectable 2-4 with their four defeats occurring by a combined 15 points, which is less than four a game. 
Atlanta is in a fat and happy mood, winners of four in a row, including a blowout of the Hornets on the road in their last game four days ago. The Hawks' intensity level could be down here.

The Hawks have not been good as home favorites either, failing to cover 11 of the last 14 times in that role.

There's a chance the Kings get back injured De'Aaron Fox, who I consider their best player. He's been out two games with a sore left ankle. It's a nice bonus if Fox plays, but I'm not counting on that. 

New Orleans has been strong at home winning and covering seven of its last nine. The Pelicans catch a schedule break here hosting a short-handed and tired Indiana squad that is concluding a five-game road trip.

The Pacers are playing for the fifth time in eight days. They are minus their two best players with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolmb Brogdon both out. They've been without Caris LeVert, maybe their third-best player, too. He's questionable. 

Those are Indiana's top three scorers. The Pelicans have held five of their last seven opponents to 105 points or fewer. 

New Orleans enters this home matchup on a winning note beating the Knicks, 102-91, this past Thursday in New York. That was a big confidence builder for the Pelicans after they were blown out during the first two games of their road trip by the Nets and Celtics.
 
The Pelicans have been idle since that game giving them three full days of rest and preparation. The extra time also may allow Brandon Ingram to play. He's questionable after turning his ankle against the Knicks. 

Even if Ingram is out, I still like the Pelicans. 

Do you really think the Rams can beat the defending Super Bowl champion Buccaneers at home traveling cross-country on a short week having just played this past Monday night?

I don't and I'm willing to lay a field goal to back that opinion.

Free of the Lions, Matthew Stafford picked up his first playoff victory knocking off a slumping Cardinals team that hadn't been good since late October. Tom Brady, by comparison, has 35 postseason victories. He's won 21 of his 25 home playoff games.

The Buccaneers are 7-1 ATS as home chalk. They are 8-1 at home this season with an average winning margin of 19.3 points. The Rams are 2-5 ATS versus above .500 opponents.

Brady doesn't have reliable Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown anymore. But he still has a deep wide receiving corps, a rejuvenated Rob Gronkowski and could be getting his two best running backs in Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones.

The Rams' defensive line has come on strong. Aaron Donald is a force. But they have holes in their secondary. Losing safety Jordan Fuller late in the season is a key injury. If the Rams have to trot out 38-year-old formerly retired Eric Weddle they're in trouble.

The Buccaneers' defense is back to being formidable with the return to health of linebackers Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and edge pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul.

These are two of the top 14 teams in the nation, according to the latest The Associated Press rankings. But we're getting a buy-low spot on Michigan State since the Spartans were upset by Northwestern at home in their last game this past Saturday, while the Badgers just defeated Northwestern, 82-76, three days ago.

Michigan State had won nine in a row prior to losing to the Wildcats. Wisconsin is riding a seven-game win streak.

The Badgers are playing extremely well. But the Spartans should never be underestimated. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games against Wisconsin. The Badgers nipped the Spartans, 64-63, at home last season. Michigan State is 7-3-1 ATS versus foes that have a winning percentage above .600.

Both teams give up less than 66 points a game. The Spartans rank 30th in defensive field goal percentage, though, while Wisconsin is 217th.

I see Michigan State winning this game so getting this many points is a nice bonus.

The oddsmaker is downgrading the Knicks because they've lost two straight home games, sleepwalking through a loss to the Hornets during an early start on Martin Luther King Day and then blowing a late lead in a 112-110 loss to the much improved Timberwolves on Tuesday.

Prior to those defeats, though, New York had won five consecutive games at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout wins against the Mavericks and Spurs.

The Pelicans are a drop in class for New York. The Knicks are a much stronger defensive club than New Orleans giving up six fewer points per game.

New Orleans is 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS in its last five road contests. The Pelicans are averaging under 100 points during their last three games.

I don't think the Knicks should be a home 'dog to the Timberwolves. New York couldn't get awake for yesterday's early-start Martin Luther King home game against the Hornets losing by 10 points after trailing by as many as 23 points.

 Look for the Knicks to be more awake for this game after Monday's embarrassment.  Prior to that loss to the Hornets, the Knicks had won five straight at Madison Square Garden with the last two being blowout victories against the Mavericks and Spurs.  The Timberwolves are looking good to the oddsmaker right now because they just rolled past the short-handed Warriors, 119-99, at home this past Sunday night. Keep in mind, though, that before that victory Minnesota had lost and failed to cover consecutive road games against the Pelicans and Grizzlies.

The Cardinals lost their edge with a late October Thursday night home loss to the Packers. They have yet to regain it and I don't see that changing in this matchup. 
Arizona is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games. The Cardinals' defense has been below par the second half of the season. Their secondary has given up 14 TD passes with just one interception during the last five games. 

Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, who had a superstar season, can take advantage. Stafford threw for a career-high 41 TD passes in his first year with Rams offensive guru coach Sean McVay while Kupp led the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and receiving TD's, emerging as the top wide receiver in the NFL. Stafford had no problem in two games against the Cardinals this season, completing 69 percent for 567 yards and a 5-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. 

The Rams are going to get their points here. I don't see the Cardinals keeping up. I give a huge plus to Aaron Donald and a Rams defense line that is peaking against an Arizona offensive line that has sprung leaks and doesn't have a quality healthy running back left. 

This puts tremendous pressure on Kyler Murray, who hasn't been the same dominant force he was earlier in the season before missing four games. Minus superstar wide receiver and security blanket DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals are far less dangerous through the air and in the red zone. Arizona's offense mainly consists of a bunch of 5-yard passes for Murray, which isn't going to get the job done. 

McVay is 5-1 against Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. During these six meetings the Rams have held Murray in check. Murray's averaged 233.2 passing yards, 6.8 yards per attempt with eight all-purpose TD's and nine turnovers along with being sacked 18 times.