The Nationals return home where they have beaten the Braves 21 of the past 26 times.
This game certainly doesn't figure to be close with unheralded converted reliever Ryan Weber making his first start of the season due to Matt Wisler being out. 
Half of the handicap is fading second-year man Weber, who was 0-3 in five starts last season and has a 5.24 ERA this year. The longest he's pitched this season is 3 2/3 innings. That was back in April. 
The other half of the handicap is playing on Nationals ace Max Scherzer, who is having another superb season and is in excellent form allowing a combined two runs on five hits in his last two starts spanning 16 innings with a 21-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Scherzer has given up fewer than three earned runs during each of his last seven home starts. 
The Nationals have dominated the Braves this year winning 11 of 13 times. 

Winnipeg is hot with four straight victories that have coincided since Matt Nichols was installed as its starting quarterback. Saskatchewan is 1-8, 3-6 ATS. 
But those records can be thrown out in this annual Labour Day Classic. The game is a sell-out in Saskatchewan. It's also the Roughriders' season. If they can't get a win here - in a home game they are going all out to win - then there really is no pulse on the team. 
I'm expecting the Roughriders to play their best game of the year fortified with returning injured offensive linemen and wide receiver Rob Bagg back. 
Saskatchewan has won four of the past five times hosting Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers haven't been favored since opening week. Now they're laying more than a field goal in an annual rivalry Labour Day matchup. I'm not buying it. This marks Winnipeg's third consecutive road game, too. 

First it's important to note this game isn't in Madison. It's in Green Bay at Lambeau Field and LSU expects to have 30,000 fans. The seating capacity is 80,735. So almost half the crowd will be for the Tigers. 
As far as the matchup, it couldn't come at a worst time for Wisconsin. The Badgers need to shore up their offensive line because of injuries. Their best offensive lineman recently retired due to repeated injuries. They also are unsettled at quarterback. It would have been best for Wisconsin to ease into their schedule. That's certainly not the case here.
LSU is an absolute powerhouse with tremendous skill position talent. Leonard Fournette rivals Deshaun Watson as the best player in college football. 
Highly respected Tigers defensive coordinator Dave Aranda knows the Badgers inside-and-out having been their defensive coordinator the previous three seasons before coming to LSU this season. The Badgers hated to see him go. 
Wisconsin is going to lose anywhere from three to six games this season. The Badgers aren't in LSU's class and that point is made worse for Wisconsin by this being the opening game. 

Colorado has its best team since 2007 with 18 returning starters. Colorado State could have its worst team in five years. Yet because some look upon this matchup as some sort of in-state rivalry, the spread is less than double-digits. 
Wrong number. The Buffaloes should roll past the Rams with huge edges in the trenches and in the passing game. 
Colorado is deep at running back and has a top wide receiver in Shay Fields. Colorado State has to replace it's entire defensive front and is thin and inexperienced in the secondary. Senior Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau and Fields should put up big numbers.
The Buffaloes showed defensive improvement last year and that should continue this season. They return nine defensive starters plus get back suspended senior nose tackle Josh Tupou. Colorado State lost its best receiver from last season.  
The Buffaloes have won and covered five of the last six in this series and are in great position to extend that run given the timing of this matchup. 

The last week of preseason is a crapshoot. I usually don't get involved. But I can't see the Vikings being prepared at all to play after seeing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater suffer serious injuries at practice on Tuesday. That had to be devastating for the team. 

The Vikings are shell shocked right now. Playing a game - even a meaningless one like this - has to be the last thing on their mind. Their thoughts are about Bridgewater right now. Not the Rams. 

Vikings coach Mike Zimmer has to be careful how much he plays veteran Shaun Hill in this game now because Hill is the new Vikings starting quarterback. This means most of the quarterback playing time in this game going to undrafted free agent  Joel Stave and Brad Sorensen, who was just cut by the team before Bridgewater went down. 

Rams coach Jeff Fisher has been treating the preseason more serious than other coaches trying to build up momentum and optimism for the Rams in their first year since returning to Los Angeles. The Rams hold a quarterback edge with Case Keenum, Jared Goff and Sean Mannion. All three of those are much better than Stave. 

It's a rough to fade Calgary, but the Stampeders have a bit of a cushion in the West Division and could be in letdown mode.
Even if they aren't, though, Hamilton always plays the Stampeders tough. In all but two of the last eight meetings, the games have been decided by less than a touchdown. Calgary is 3-0 the past three times meeting the Tiger-Cats. However, the combined margin of victory in those three games is by a total of eight points. Hamilton has covered the past five times when playing in Calgary. 
The Tiger-Cats have picked up their game with the return of QB Zach Collaros. Hamilton has scored 31 or more points in four of its last five games. The Tiger-Cats are proven road warriors, too, covering 70 percent of their last 20 away contests.

Both Pittsburgh and New Orleans are 0-2 in preseason. 
Sean Payton wants to change that. Saints starters on both offense and defense are expected to see extended action. The Saints want this game. 
The same can't be said for Mike Tomlin, who isn't crazy enough to risk Ben Roethlisberger to injury especially since Roethlisberger has become more injury prone the last couple of seasons. 
Pittsburgh's 1-9 SU and ATS mark the past three years in preseason isn't a fluke. Tomlin is one of those coaches who does not care about winning these meaningless games.
While Drew Brees should see most of the quarterback action, the Saints also have capable backups in Luke McCown and Garrett Grayson. 
The Steelers lost their veteran backup quarterback, Bruce Gradkowski, to a hamstring injury. That means extended playing time for Landry Jones and Bryn Renner, who has been cut by four teams during the past two seasons and likely is going to be out of the NFL when preseason finishes. 

Montreal has the second-worst record in the Canadian Football League. The Alouettes were 1-5 in their last six games - with all the losses occurring by double-digits - until they upset Ottawa last Friday as nine-point road 'dogs. 
The Alouettes are 0-5 ATS following a win and have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games. I don't think they are very good and a fluke victory doesn't change that opinion. It just sets up a letdown scenario for Montreal against the rested and hot Blue Bombers. 
Sparked by quarterback Matt Nichols, Winnipeg has won three in a row. The Blue Bombers beat Edmonton on the road, Hamilton at home and Toronto on the road by a combined 50 points. All three of those opponents are .500 teams. The Blue Bombers were underdogs in each game. 
The Blue Bombers were idle last week and are expected to get several key injured starters back, including their top receivers. In the meantime, Nichols has found good chemistry with Clarence Denmark, Kris Adams, Jace Davis and Thomas Mayo. 
Winnipeg leads the CFL in takeaways and its secondary can get an added boost with the return of Chris Randle and Macho Harris. 
The Blue Bombers should have plenty of depth now that they are healthier. The timing is right, too, off a bye and catching Montreal in a letdown spot. 
The Alouettes have been favored only once - and that was against the worst team in the league, Saskatchewan - and they shouldn't be favored here. 

Jered Weaver and J.A. Happ are both 33. But that's where the similarity ends.No pitcher has more wins than Happ, who is 17-3 with a 3.05 ERA. Happ has turned his career around to where he's a serious Cy Young candidate. Weaver, on the other hand, has lost his fastball and is on a continuing decline.
Weaver has a 5.47 ERA. The Angels are 6-14 in his last 20 road starts. The Angels have lost 14 times when Weaver has started - all by more than one run. 
The Angels did win on Wednesday. But they are playing the string out losers of 15 of their last 19. The Blue Jays are in a pennant race and draw the Angels here in a get away game where the Angels have to cross the border following the game. 
Toronto is 21-5 in Happ's last 26 starts, including winning the past seven times he's faced a sub .500 opponent. 

If given 1 1/2 runs, the Phillies would be 13-3 in their last 16 games. They still hold playoff hopes and have won their past four games. 
The Phillies just faced Dodgers starter Kenta Madeda eight days ago and got to him for three runs in five innings. This is another quick turnaround look at him. 
Phillies starter Vince Velasquez has been much better when pitching at Citizens Bank Park going 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA in his nine home starts this season. Velasquez is from Southern California and has a strong revenge motivate after the Dodgers roughed him up eight days ago in a 9-3 loss at Dodger Stadium. 
The Phillies' bullpen has been overworked, but got a much needed day off yesterday with the Phillies being idle. 

These two teams just had a joint practice on Friday and the Texans looked good during it reinvigorated from a day off on Wednesday and by the less humid weather than they are used to. 
The Texans are the superior team and I see their energy and focus carrying over into this game. 
Houston holds a strong skill position edge, particularly with its wide receiver depth. That should prove crucial here. I would take Brock Osweiler over Blaine Gabbert. The 49ers could be missing Colin Kaepernick, too, He's missed the last two days of practice with a sore shoulder.
Chip Kelly's top priority is to get his system in place. That's going to take time. 
Taking points is a nice bonus. 

The Packers have lost and failed to cover in five of their last six preseason openers. Mike McCarthy doesn't care about these preseason openers. Hue Jackson does in his Browns coaching debut. 
That's why Jackson is going to play starting quarterback Robert Griffin III a lot. That gives Cleveland a monster quarterback edge since neither Aaron Rodgers nor backup Brett Hundley are expected to play. Hundley remains sidelined with a an ankle injury. 
This leaves the Packers' quarterback rotation left to a pair of undrafted rookies. On top of that, the Packers have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line. So they'll be playing backups in the offensive line. Green Bay lacks depth in its offensive line. 
The Browns are the team with far more motivation with a number of starting spots up for grabs. 

They are in different conferences, but the Saints will have great familiarity with the Patriots since the teams have been jointly practicing. That's a big plus when taking points in a preseason game. The two teams met last preseason and New Orleans jumped out to a 15-0 lead before losing by two points. 
I like the Saints' quarterback situation better than New England's for this preseason matchup. Consider Drew Brees and Tom Brady a wash. Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't looked sharp for New England. The Saints' backups are veteran Luke McCown and second-year man Garrett Grayson, who completed 8 of 12 passes against Baltimore in the Saints' preseason opener last year. Rookie QB Jacoby Brissett figures to play a lot in this game for New England. 
The Saints are working hard at establishing a tough defensive mind set under new defensive coordinator Dennis Allen. The Saints have more to prove during the preseason. This is what Bill Belichick said this week, "We still have things we need to install." The Patriots have lost and failed to cover in their last two preseason openers losing by 11 points to the Packers last year and by 17 points to the Redskins in 2014. 
New Orleans has covered seven of the past nine times when getting points in preseason and is 4-1 ATS in its last five preseason openers. 

The defending Grey Cup champion Eskimos are finding out that repeating isn't going to be easy. They have lost their last two games - both as solid home favorites. It's the first time Edmonton has lost two in a row since 2014. 
Now the Eskimos go on the road to play Ottawa where they are underdogs for the first this season. Look for the Eskimos to bounce back. They won their lone away game this season and are 8-2 ATS following a straight-up loss. 
Edmonton opened its season with a 45-37 overtime loss to the Redblacks so there also is a strong revenge factor. 
There is nothing wrong with Edmonton's offense. Quarterback Mike Reilly leads the CFL in passing yards and touchdown passes per game. Reilly is attacking a banged-up Redblacks secondary down several veteran starters. 
The Eskimos certainly should put up their share of points and they're due to play much better because the talent is there. 

The number is inflated because Ottawa starting quarterback Henry Burris is back after missing five games with a finger injury, while Logan Kilgore makes his first start replacing injured No. 1 quarterback Ricky Ray for Toronto.
These teams just played each other on July 13. The score was tied 20-20 with 2:49 left when the Redblacks returned a punt 75 yards for a touchdown in a 30-20 final.
Burris could be rusty. That's a possibility. But I also believe Kilgore will be ready having had all week to practice with the first unit. Kilgore looked good in preseason and will be coached up by Scott Milanovich, who has a strong reputation for developing quarterbacks.
Also in Kilgore's favor is the Argonauts have improved their ground attack ranking in the middle after finishing last in 2015. Toronto's offensive line is coming around, too, allowing only one sack in its last game, a victory against Montreal, which has a top-four defense. The Argonauts should be primed for a big effort not only because it's short revenge, but also rallying around their replacement quarterback. 

Road teams have been gold this CFL season. B.C. has contributed to that going 2-0 SU and ATS in its two away matchups. The Lions aren't strong at quarterback, but they compensate for that with a league-leading running attack and outstanding defense that ranks No. 1 in fewest yards allowed per game. The Lions' ground attack can take advantage of Calgary's defensive line injuries making it easier for quarterback Jonathon Jennings to pick his spots. 
The Lions upset Calgary, 20-18, opening week as 2 1/2-point 'dogs. Now they are off a bye and the pointspread is doubled. It wasn't a fluke the Lions won the first meeting as they outgained the Stampeders while running off 17 more plays. 
Calgary's only two wins have been against Winnipeg, which has the worst record in the league at 1-4. 
The Lions have outgained each of their first four opponents. The line is inflated because of Calgary's revenge angle and perhaps the oddsmaker not fully buying into the much improved Lions.

Road teams have been gold this CFL season going 13-3-1 and 15-2 against the spread through Thursday. Toronto has been part of this home field problem going 0-2 at their new BMO Field, losing by an average of 16 points to Hamilton and Ottawa. A crowd of less than 10,000 is expected so the Argonauts don't have a strong home field despite their new digs. 
This has been a road team series, too, with the visitor winning nine of the last 10 times. 
Montreal has a strong defense, but the CFL's weakest offense. A large part of the Alouettes' problems on offense have been because of injuries, including an eye injury to quarterback Kevin Glenn. But Glenn has been taking first-team reps this week after missing last week's game and is expected to start. That should give the Alouettes a needed boost.
The Alouettes do have a strong defense. Toronto averages fewer than 24 points a game and ranks last in yards gained. So this is a lot of points for the Argos to lay. 

I want to fade Edwin Jackson in the worst way while getting behind Max Scherzer. Of course the whole world wants to do this, too. So this is a way to get the matchup - laying 1 1/2 runs - without having to risk 3/1 odds. 
The Nationals have lost back-to-back home games with Stephen Strasburg and Tanner Roark. I don't see them dropping a third consecutive game with their third of three aces. 
Jackson is in my top five National League worst starter list even though he nearly threw a no-hitter during his last start. The Marlins cut Jackson this season after he had nearly a 6.00 ERA in eight games with them. The Padres are his 11th team. He has a 4.58 lifetime ERA and 1.45 WHIP. 
Scherzer is one of the five best starters in the National League and he's in typical great form with a 5-2 mark and 1.61 ERA in his last nine starts. He's struck out 81 during this time frame spanning 61 1/3 innings. 
The Nationals have won by more than one run in 11 of their last 13 victories. 

Promising Julio Urias can only hope to be as dominant as Stephen Strasburg is right now. Strasburg is more than living up to his huge ceiling as he tries to become the first pitcher since Roger Clemens in 1986 to open a season 14-0. 
Strasburg has held his past four opponents to fewer than two earned runs compiling a 0.94 ERA. Strasburg has a 1.71 career ERA versus the Dodgers in four starts.   
The 19-year-old Urias has great potential, but he's going through growing pains and he doesn't have the element of surprise on his side nor pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium in this road matchup. The Nationals saw Urias less than a month ago in LA. They'll be ready for him.  

Take the Padres out of Petco Park and they become a dangerous offensive team. San Diego is averaging 7.8 runs in its last six road games. 
The Padres also are 11-7 during their past 18 overall games. The Dodgers are 6-11 in their last 17 games if giving up 1 1/2 runs.
I like the way San Diego starter Luis Perdomo is developing. He has one of the league's highest ground ball rates during the last month and is coming off a six-inning start against the Diamondbacks allowing just two earned runs with five strikeouts and no walks. That was at Chase Field, too, which is far more challenging to pitchers than Dodgers Stadium. 
Dodgers starter Brandon McCarthy is on the comeback trail following Tommy John surgery. This only will be his second start of the season. McCarthy has a lifetime 4.82 ERA with the Dodgers. LA is without injured outfielder Joc Pederson and its bullpen carries a heavy fatigue rating after Scott Kazmir went just three innings last night. 

This is just too many points for Edmonton to give up considering the defense and coaching of their opponent.
Saskatchewan surrendered just 186 passing yards and 66 rushing yards to Toronto in its lone game this season. However, the Rough Riders lost because of turnovers - including a fumble return brought back for a touchdown - and bad special teams play. Saskatchewan quarterback Darian Durant looked good in the loss completing 31 of 48 throws for 310 yards and a touchdown. 
Look for Coach Chris Jones to clean that up. You know the Rough Riders are going to be tough under Jones, who knows the Eskimos having coached them to the Grey Cup last season before leaving for Saskatchewan this season along with his coaching staff. 
Edmonton also lost in its lone game this season. The Eskimos really appeared to be missing Jones as they gave up 45 points to Ottawa. The Eskimos not only are minus Jones, one of the top defensive minds in the CFL, but also are in heavy rebuilt mode at linebacker and in the secondary. 

The Braves ended a four-game losing streak by upsetting the Cubs in a rain-delayed, 11-inning makeup game Thursday. Now the Braves draw the rested White Sox, who were idle Thursday, and lefty Chris Sale. 
Atlanta has the worst offense and worst record in the majors. The Braves are 9-22 versus southpaws. This is a kill spot for the White Sox so I'm going to lay a 1 1/2 runs at considerably reduced juice. Matt Wisler has shown some promise, but he's far from Sale's class and is backed by a bad bullpen that also carries a high fatigue rating. 
Chicago is 15-3 in Sale's past 18 starts. The White Sox are 8-1 in Sale's past nine home starts and 8-0 in his last eight interleague starts. 
The White Sox are playing well winning seven of 10, including their past five. 

Calgary is double-digits better than Winnipeg especially when playing at home. 
The oddsmaker opened the Stampeders a little light because Calgary was upset by BC last Saturday, 20-18. That was the Stampeders' first season-opening loss since 2011 and should prove a wake-up call especially after blowing an 11-point second half lead. 
The last time Calgary lost two games in a row in a season was early in 2012. That's the longest streak in Canadian pro football history. Calgary is 21-6 ATS following a loss.  
Winnipeg is a bottom-three team that looked bad in losing at home to Montreal to start the season last week. Drew Willy was sacked five times and didn't look good. The Blue Bombers are averaging just 17.2 points during their last four games. So their poor offensive performance wasn't a surprise. 

The Phillies are playing much better. They've won four of their last six, including the first two games of this series. They would be 7-0 if given 1 1/2 runs during their last seven games.
The Diamondbacks have lost four in a row. They have been terrible at Chase Field dropping 27 of 40. This includes losing eight of the past nine times against a foe with a losing road mark. 
Phillies starter Zach Eflin is pitching better giving up three runs in his last two starts spanning 11 2/3 innings. Diamondbacks starter Archie Bradley is 1-2 at home with a 5.79 ERA. The Phillies just faced him on June 19. The Diamondbacks' bullpen is in disarray, weak in middle relief and closer Brad Ziegler has blown two of his last three save opportunities. 

This is a kill spot for the Astros with everything lining up. But rather than lay such hefty juice, going the run line route makes sense. 
The Reds are force-feeding Cody Reed. It's his first big league start. The Reds are desperate because of a cluster injury problem in their starting rotation. Making matters worse for the Reds is their horrendous bullpen, which has a 6.46 road ERA and is heavily taxed having pitching 21 2/3 innings during the past four days. 
The powerful Astros have the offense to take advantage. They also have Dallas Keuchel on the mound. Houston is 21-6 in Keuchel's last 27 home starts and he's 14-3 the past 17 times when pitching on five days rest. 
Despite winning last night against the Astros, the Reds are just 6-17 in their last 23 road games versus opponents sporting an above .500 home mark. 

It's my belief the Warriors are the superior team here when they have Draymond Green. He returns to action for this Game 6. 
LeBron James and Kyrie Irving took advantage of Green's Game 5 suspension to combine to make an astounding 33 of 54 shots from floor. The rest of the Cavaliers aren't impressive and I don't see James and Irving having a Game for the Ages like they did in Game 5. 
Golden State has proven itself time after time following a loss going 16-1 in those instances! The Warriors are an underdog here making that powerful 94 percent trend even stronger. 
A telling statistic from Game 5 was the Cavaliers coming up with just 15 assists. Cleveland's ball movement wasn't good. Kevin Love continues to be a non-factor and the Warriors own a huge bench edge.
The extra time off from playing on Monday favors the Warriors because they are much better coached with Steve Kerr over rookie coach Tyronn Lue. It's a plus if Andrew Bogut is able to play for the Warriors, but not essential. 
The Warriors are going to have fresh legs and Green, who not only is a tremendous defender but helps open the floor offensively for Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. The importance of Green to Golden State is immeasurable and it will show in this game. 
The Cavaliers, on the other hand, are totally reliant on James and Irving. Those two aren't enough to stop a rested and superior Warriors team from winning. 

As great as Clayton Kershaw is, his record would be just 6-6 in his last 12 starts if the Dodgers were minus 1 1/2 runs. If there is one team that has been competitive against Kershaw it's the Diamondbacks. Kershaw is 11-8 against them with a 2.76 ERA. Kershaw is 1-6 during his last seven starts at Chase Field.
The Dodgers rank 27th in batting average and OPS. They are a predominantly right-handed hitting team, a negative when going against southpaw Patrick Corbin. Only three times in their last 16 games have the Dodgers scored more than four runs. Their bullpen is below average aside from star closer Kenley Jansen. LA already has blown nine saves on the road. 
Paul Goldschmidt, the Diamondbacks' key hitter, has a strong history versus the Dodgers and is batting .391 since May 27. The Diamondbacks are much stronger offensively versus lefties, too. 
Corbin had a 2.97 ERA at Chase Field in 2013 and a 3.11 ERA at home last season with a 44-to-six-strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's had a down season so far this year, but has recently showed signs of regaining his one-time All-Star form. 

Kyle Hendricks hasn't been nearly as good on the road as he has been at Wrigley Field. Hendricks is 1-3 with a 4.37 road ERA compared to 3-1 with a 1.99 ERA at home. This also is the Phillies' third look already at Hendricks having just faced him two starts ago. 
Philadelphia's offense has picked up with the call-up of Tommy Joseph and picking up Jimmy Paredes. 
Phillies starter Jerad Eickhoff is underrated having made seven of 11 quality starts this season. The Phillies' bullpen also is underrated having been quite good this season. 

The Twins are even worse than thought. They are 5-20 in their last 25 games, owners of the worst road record in the American League at 4-19. They have lost the past seven times following an off day. 
I don't see those numbers improving as Minnesota travels to Seattle to take on a hot Mariners club - 7-2 last in its last nine games - and going against Felix Hernandez with rookie Pat Dean. 
Hernandez has some mileage, but is still an elite pitcher. He's in good form, too, with a 2.21 ERA in his last three starts. Hernandez has dominated Minnesota also going 4-0 with a 0.63 ERA in his last five starts against the Twins with a 1.93 lifetime ERA in 17 outings.
The Twins are last in the American League in runs scored. Seattle, on the other hand, is swinging hot bats. If you discount a 5-0 loss to Rich Hill three games ago, the Mariners are averaging seven runs during their last six games. Dean is making just his second big league start. 

Yes, I know this is the Warriors' season and the Zig-Zag fully is in play here, which means Golden State is the side to play following two straight losses.
But it's too difficult for me to turn down this many points considering how much the Thunder have outplayed the Warriors during Games 3 and 4 winning by a combined 52 points. 

Forget about last season when the Warriors won the championship. Forget the Warriors' record regular season. This is the present and simply put the Thunder are outrebounding, outshooting and even outhustling Golden Sate. The statistics for the series bear this out: The Thunder are shooting 45.6 percent from the floor to the Warriors' 44.4 percent, are plus 27 on the boards, plus six in steals, have 14 more blocked shots and have committed five fewer turnovers.

Oklahoma City is the healthier team, has the momentum and its confidence level is at its highest. Contrast this with the Warriors, who are on the wrong end of an elimination game for the first time in Steve Kerr's two years. 

The Warriors are in uncharted waters. Their big men aren't playing well. Neither is Draymond Green. Stephen Curry isn't physically right, maybe playing at 70 percent since returning six games ago from a sprained right MCL. 
The Cavaliers blew out the Raptors last night after losing two in a row. But there's a class difference between those two teams. There isn't a class difference between these two teams. If there is, it's the Thunder being much better than the Warriors right now. 

OK, the Raptors got their measure of respect beating Cleveland, 99-84, at home in Game 3 of this Eastern Conference Final series this past Saturday. 
There is no way a game like that happens to Cleveland in Game 4. I fully expect to see the Cavaliers play their "A" game. Even their "B" game should be enough to cover this number. 
Toronto had its moment. Now things revert back. The Cavaliers buried the Raptors by 31 and 19 points, respectively, during the first two games of this series. The Cavaliers are - and always will be - in control of this series. They totally outclass the Raptors, who have gone as far as they can go. 
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Co. buried the Pistons and Hawks. The Raptors are next in line. 
Toronto has failed to cover six of the past seven times following a victory. The Raptors also are 4-10 ATS versus foes with a winning record. 

Never before have the Cavaliers blown out a team in the playoffs like they did Toronto in Game 1 winning by 31 points. The Cavaliers have yet to taste defeat in the postseason and they certainly can't be faulted for feeling overconfident in hosting the Raptors in Game 2. 
No, I don't see the Raptors pulling off an upset for the ages here. But I do see a better situation for Toronto and a strong effort forthcoming. That should ensure the Raptors of staying within a dozen points of Cleveland.
Keep in mind, the Raptors were tired and obviously flat in Game 1 this past Tuesday having just finished a grueling seven-game series against Miami on Sunday. The opener against Cleveland was Toronto's third game at a different gym in five days. Only one day to prepare and regroup to face the Cavaliers wasn't nearly enough.
Now the Raptors have been at the same venue for three days. So look for a lot fresher Raptors team especially star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowery, who saw their shortest playing time against the Cavaliers in any playoff game. 
Toronto has proven to be resilient and tough following a loss covering seven of the past 10 times in that instance. Each time the Raptors lost in the playoffs, too, they bounced back with a victory going 6-0 in these spots. The Raptors also are 13-5 ATS the past 18 times versus foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
The Raptors had a better record than Detroit and Atlanta. Yet the Cavaliers were 10 1/2 and 11-point home favorites against the Pistons in the playoffs and minus 7 and 7 1/2 versus the Hawks at home in the playoffs. 
So the Cavaliers certainly are paying a premium for their lopsided Game 1 victory. I'll take the value with an underdog that has much to prove, including a lot of self-respect, following Game 1. 

The Thunder are getting a lot of kudos for knocking off San Antonio. But this is a bad spot for Oklahoma City. Remember what happened to the Thunder when they played at San Antonio in Game 1 of their Western Conference semifinal series? They were blitzed by 32 points.
Now I'm not saying Golden State is going to bury the Thunder like that, but I do believe the timing and matchup is right for the Warriors to win by double digits in this opener of the Western Conference finals. 
The Warriors have a tremendous home floor as evidenced by losing just once at Oracle Arena all season. Golden State went 3-0 versus Oklahoma City during the regular season winning at home against the Thunder by 15 and 8 points, respectively. The Warriors have covered in seven of their last eight home game, including going 5-1 ATS during the playoffs.  
Now much of that is factored into the line. What's isn't built as much into the line is the belief that the Warriors have the versatility, flexibility, superior coaching and athletic talent to take advantage of being off for four full days and counter the Thunder's rebounding edge. 
Oklahoma City was able to beat San Antonio by dominating the Spurs on the boards. That forced the Spurs into a deliberate style where they had to rely on a mediocre perimeter game. San Antonio got out of sync. Some of the Spurs showed their considerable age.
The Warriors' talent are in their prime. Stephen Curry proved he's back from his knee injury averaging 34.5 points, 9.5 assists and seven rebounds during the final two games of Golden State's semifinal victory over the Trail Blazers. Curry and banged-up center Andrew Bogut should heavily benefit from the extra time off between series. 
I expect the Warriors to be in sync and able to hurt the Thunder via fast breaks, something the older and slower Spurs were unable to do. The Thunder aren't going to be able to beat the Warriors like they did the Spurs. That difference is going to manifest itself in this Game 1. There's also the chance the Thunder still are on a big high from upsetting the Spurs and not able to settle down for this much different opponent especially being on the road.  

I can understand a certain respect level for the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. But opening the Spurs a road favorite based on the past four games in this playoff series is just plain wrong. 

Since getting blown out in Game 1, the Thunder has won three of four winning by one on the road, 14 at home and by four points on the road while losing by four points in Game 3 at home. The Thunder has outrebounded the Spurs in each of these past four games. And that's the key to this game and the series.
The Spurs and Popovich are limited in what they can plan and do when Oklahoma City is controlling the boards. The Thunder led the NBA in rebounding this season. They outrebounded the Spurs by 18 boards in Tuesday's Game 5 victory. Unsung Steven Adams is coming up big. There is no fluke to Oklahoma City controlling the backboard. 
This is what Tony Parker was quoted as saying following the Spurs' Game 5 loss: "We know that's (rebounding) the key of the series. We know we have to control the boards. We made a lot of stops tonight (Tuesday), but we just can't get the boards and it's killing us in the end. Control the boards. I think that's the key of the series. We can't keep giving them opportunities to score." 
Popovich has tried to limit superstars Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook by playing more half-court offense. The Spurs actually were getting needed stops in Game 5 holding Durant and Westbrook to a combined 20 of 48 (41.6 percent) shooting from the floor. But the Thunder still were able to upset the Spurs in San Antonio by their rebounding dominance. That's not going to change especially with the venue being moved now to Oklahoma City and the Thunder that much more confident. 
San Antonio built a 67-15 regular-season record by steamrolling lesser foes. The Spurs are 2-8 ATS the last 10 times when facing foes with a winning mark above .600. They also have failed to cover seven of the last 10 times following a loss. 
Oklahoma City is playing its finest basketball right now. The Thunder certainly are capable of winning a championship. They are 12-4 ATS the past 16 times meeting opponents with a winning record. 
The Thunder also have covered seven of their last nine games against San Antonio and are 12-3 ATS the last 15 times hosting the Thunder. 

Since Game 1, the Thunder have outplayed the Spurs winning two of the last three. Oklahoma City has the most talented player, Kevin Durant, and is the better rebounding team. Steve Adams has turned into a strong wildcard proving to be highly effective inside against San Antonio. 
The Spurs have much on their plate already dealing with Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Now Adams has to be accounted for, too. 
Oklahoma City has covered eight of the past 10 times on the road going against an opponent with a home winning percentage above .600. The Spurs fattened their record during the season burying patsies. They are 2-7 ATS the past nine times hosting foes with a winning percentage above .600. 
Yes, home-court means a lot. I respect the heck out of San Antonio and Gregg Popovich especially when playing at home. But this line is inflated enough to get involved with Oklahoma City. 

The Raptors find themselves in a must-win spot here by virtue of losing Game 1, 102-96, in overtime at home this past Tuesday. A Toronto loss to Miami in this Game 2 could set up a Heat sweep with Games 3 and 4 in Miami. 
The oddsmaker is well aware of this. It's certainly no bargain laying this many points with the Raptors. But I'm confident the handicap will hold. This is Toronto's game to win. 
Toronto is the younger team with much to prove especially All-Star Kyle Lowry. The Heat are the old gunslingers. They managed to thwart off the Raptors' late challenge in Game 1, but Dwayne Wade doesn't have much spring in his step and Hassan Whiteside isn't 100 percent. Both teams had to go the full seven games to win their first-round series. The Heat are the older team and had to come back from being down 3-2 to Charlotte to pull it off. The Heat will be the more fatigued team on Thursday, in action for the third time in five days having gone from home to Charlotte to Toronto.  
Even defeating the Raptors in Game 1, Miami still has only covered three of its past 11 road matchups. 
It's easy to get down on Toronto for not winning at home in Game 1. Still, let's not forget the Raptors had a better season record than Miami by a whopping eight games, won three of four against the Heat during the regular season and is playing at Air Canada Centre where they averaged 104.4 points per game. 
Now this isn't to cast a blind eye to how poorly DeMar DeRozan and Lowry are playing. The Raptors live-and-die with their two backcourt All-Stars. Toronto's backcourt shot just 12-of-35 (34.2 percent) from the floor in Game 1. Lowry had a mere seven points, including a half-court 3-pointer that forced overtime. Miami, by contrast, had its backcourt connect on 20 of 41 (48.7 percent) shots from the field. Yet the Raptors still took the Heat to overtime. 
Lowry and DeRozan didn't play well either in the Raptors' first-round series against the Pacers combining to shoot less than 32 percent from the field. During the season, the Raptors hit 37 percent of their 3-pointers. Only four teams had a higher percentage. 
Toronto's backcourt stars are well overdue to shoot much better. If those two just have their average games, the Raptors should easily prevail given how well some of their other players such as center Jonas Valanciunas are performing.  
I'm not advocating the Raptors are the superior team and should win the series. But I do believe the zig-zag pattern is a fit here. It's a natural letdown spot for the Heat while the Raptors should display a game-of-the-year type mentality. 

A mere 12 hours after dispatching the Chris Paul and Blake Griffin-less Clippers in six games, the Trail Blazers left for the Bay Area to meet Golden State for this Sunday matinee. 
The Warriors are an outstanding team even without injured Stephen Curry. But they also have a nice scheduling edge here, too. Golden State has been idle since Wednesday. Once word came out that Paul and Griffin were out it was a foregone conclusion that Portland would win its first round series. So the rested Warriors should be well prepared for the Trail Blazers. 
Not only do the Warriors have a sense of urgency to play well at home knowing that Curry is likely out at least the next three games, but they won't be taking the underdog Trail Blazers for granted. That's because Portland dealt Golden State its worst loss of the season, 137-105, on Feb. 19 in Portland. It was quite a different story when the teams last met. The Warriors beat the Trail Blazers, 136-111, at Oracle Arena on April 3. 
The Warriors also hosted the Trail Blazers on March 11 and won, 128-112. Portland does not have a good history on the road against the Warriors failing to cover in 21 of its past 28 visits. 
Golden State is tough to game plan against even without Curry because of its versatility and multi-dimensional players. The Warriors, right now, can stake their claim to being among the greatest teams in NBA history. I think Portland's Terry Stotts is one of the more underrated coaches, but he's pressed for time to properly game plan for the Warriors because of the short time span after his team finished off the Clippers. He and his staff had to fully concentrate on getting past the Clippers.  

No Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin. No chance for the Clippers. We know this. They know this. But the Clippers still have enough pride and talent to not go gently into the night against one of the weaker and more inexperienced playoff teams.
We also know the Clippers don't perform well under playoff pressure. The Clippers blew a seven-point against the Thunder in the final minute of their Game 5 Western Conference semifinal game to lose that series two seasons ago and last season blew a three-to-one game series lead against the Rockets. 
But now the pressure is on Portland not the Clippers. Nothing is expected of the Clippers with Paul and Griffin out. So I'm expecting the Clippers to actually step up. 
This is what Clippers coach Doc Rivers was quoted as saying, "I think now that we know what to expect, you'll see a much better game for a full game. We win Game 6, it's right back to our momentum. ... We're still focused and ready to go." 
Usually I don't put much stock in what a coach says. But this quote rings true. 
The Trail Blazers have a lot of youth. They are inexperienced in big games and have a poor recent playoff history especially in a favorite's role. The Clippers still have talent and pride with DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, Jamal Crawford and Paul Pierce. These guys aren't exactly stiffs. 

I don't see upstart Charlotte beating the veteran Heat three straight times. Charlotte got back into the series by winning the last two - both at home.

Now the Hornets visit AmericanAirlines Arena. 
Here is Miami's history at home: The Heat have won and covered their last eight home games. Each win was by eight or more points. They are 13-0 at home during their past 13 first-round playoff games and 13-2 in their last 15 home postseason contests. The two losses during this span were to San Antonio. 
Now here is Charlotte's history on the road and in the playoffs: The Hornets are 2-19 in their last 21 games at Miami. This includes losses in Game 1 and Game 2 of this series by a combined 44 points. The Hornets are 0-9 in their last nine playoff games. 
The Hornets got back into the series by taking advantage of their homecourt and clamping down defensively defeating Miami, 96-80 and 89-85, the past two games. The savvy, veteran-laden Heat are picking their spots. Now is their chance.  
Charlotte has failed to cover eight of the last 11 times following a victory. The Hornets have surrendered an average of 112 points to the Heat in four games at AmericanAirlines Arena this season. 
Miami committed the fourth-fewest fouls in the league during the regular season. Yet the Heat have been whistled for 18 more fouls than Charlotte. I don't see the Hornets getting the benefit of their flops on the road. The Hornets have shot 28 more free throws than Miami in the series, connecting on 82.8 percent from the line. The league has to be aware of that discrepancy. The Hornets are an excellent free throw shooting team, but they aren't that good averaging 79 percent from the line during the regular season.  
The Hornets, to their credit, won these past two games minus injured Nicolas Batum. He's a game-time decision because of an ankle injury. If Batum remains out it's a plus for the Heat. Batum is one of Charlotte's three best players. But even if Batum plays, he could be rusty and could disrupt Charlotte's rhythm. 

Down 3-1 to the Thunder, I don't see the Mavericks' proud veterans mailing in this game. Dirk Nowitzki and Co. have a lot of pride and are much better coached under Rick Carlisle than Oklahoma City is under rookie NBA coach Billy Donovan. 

Wesley Matthews has done an excellent job keeping a frustrated Kevin Durant in check. I'm sure the Mavericks didn't appreciate Durant conking Justin Anderson on the head during the final minute of the Thunder's 119-108 Game 4 victory this past Saturday. 
The point spread is so large because the Mavericks' point guards can't match Russell Westbrook and Oklahoma City has a huge rebounding edge. But Enes Kanter and Steven Adams - although coming off strong performances - are not exactly All-Stars. The bar isn't set that high for Dallas to hang in. 
Oklahoma City does have better depth, but the Mavericks will have had two full days off to rest and game plan. Dallas has covered in nine of its last 12 road games. The Mavericks have proven tough, too, when going against upper tier opponents covering seven of the past nine times versus foes with a home winning percentage above .600.
The Thunder has lost 15 times when leading in the fourth quarter. A lot of that is on Donovan, who gets outcoached. Oklahoma City is a mediocre 6-6 straight-up in its last 12 games. The Mavericks also have a strong history when playing in Oklahoma City covering 71 percent of the time there during their past 29 road trips. 
 

I expect Stephen Curry to play - and play well. He has recovered from his sprained ankle. The Warriors are due for a good shooting game. They averaged an NBA-best 48.7 percent from the floor during the regular season, but have shot just 42.9 percent in Game 1 and 43 percent in Game 3. Houston is not a strong defensive club. Only five clubs gave up more points per game than the Rockets.

The Warriors received their wake-up call and the Rockets got their measure of respect during Thursday night's 97-96 Houston victory. Despite that loss, Golden State still has defeated Houston 14 of the past 16 times. The Rockets are 2-7 ATS following a victory. 

No home-court isn't going to matter. Neither is better execution. The crippled Grizzlies are simply totally overmatched by the Spurs. It's not a fluke San Antonio has held the Grizzlies to an average of 71 points in jumping out to a 2-0 series lead. The Spurs are one of the greatest defensive teams ever. 

San Antonio's average win in the series is by 29 points. So I'm surprised this line opened so short. The Grizzlies, down their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - can't compete inside nor outside. They are shooting less than 36 percent from the floor during the series. Memphis is down to using Jordan Farmar and Xavier Munford as its point guards. Those two are a combined 10-of-26 from the field.
The Spurs' bench is easily better than the Grizzlies' starters outscoring them by an average of 16 points. Zach Randolph is the only decent Grizzlies' player still standing and he's totally frustrated shooting 26.7 percent in the series while averaging a puny 8.5 points a game. 
It was easy to see this coming as the Grizzlies are 1-12 in their last 13 games, including losing their past six games. The Spurs have whipped the Grizzlies seven consecutive times, winning the last two in Memphis by an average of 17 points. All together, San Antonio has covered seven of its last nine in Memphis. 
The Spurs have destroyed the Grizzlies despite playing sloppy at times. Don't look for the veteran Spurs to screw around here. They're looking for a sweep and are not going to let up. There is nothing the Grizzlies can do about it given their multiple injuries. They know that. They did well to make the postseason. 

This isn't your normal No. 1 versus No. 8 seed matchup. Cleveland has the big names - LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love - but the talent gap between these two clubs isn't as large as perceived. 
Detroit has the best big man on the floor, Andre Drummond, and has the athletic and tall forwards who can bother James with Tobias Harris, Marcus Morris and Stanley Johnson. At point guard, Reggie Jackson has more playoff experience than Irving. 
The Pistons won three of their four meetings against Cleveland this season. They should be loose having last made the playoffs six seasons ago. All the pressure is on the Cavaliers. 

Another big factor in Detroit's favor is the coaching matchup of Stan Van Gundy, who I consider one of the better coaches in the NBA, against inexperienced Tyronn Lue. The Cavaliers were 30-11 under David Blatt and 27-14 under Lue. The Cavaliers lost straight-up eight times when favored by seven or more points under Lue. 

Brad Stevens has gotten as much of his limited Celtics team as possible. The Celtics lack Atlanta's front-line talent - especially dealing with Al Horford and Paul Millsap - and lack the size to take advantage of the Hawks' rebounding weakness. 

The Hawks aren't as good as their 60-win team of a year ago, but they are better than their 48-win total shows. No team was stronger defensively than the Hawks following the All-Star break. The Hawks allowed just 96.8 points per 100 possessions during that span with San Antonio the next closest at 99.3.

Boston is much worse on the road. The Celtics have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 away matchups. 

 

Phoenix actually is playing well winning back-to-back road games and covering four of its last five. 
The Suns have double revenge motivation having been blown out in their last two games against the Kings - both in Sacramento. 
The spot sets up well for the Suns. The Kings are off an emotional and highly satisfying 114-112 victory this past Saturday night against Oklahoma City. That was the Kings' final home game of the season and their last game ever at Sleep Train Arena as they will be playing in a new downtown arena next season. The Kings drew great crowd support in the victory against Oklahoma City.
I don't see the Kings having nearly the motivation as they go on their final road trip. All-Star center DeMarcus Cousins already has said he won't play on the road trip in order to rest his sore feet. Point guard Rajon Rondo, the Kings' second-best player, has missed missed three of the past four games and also may not play. The Kings' bench scoring is down, too, with Omri Casspi and Marco Belinelli both sidelined. 

We know the Nets are playing the string out. But let's be realistic about the Wizards, too. They are three games below .500 and 3 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East behind Detroit with five games remaining. 
The only consistency the Wizards have shown is an ability to be inconsistent. Lack of effort and low basketball IQ always are in play with the Wizards. This is their first home game since returning from a crucial - and unsuccessful - five-game West Coast trip. The last two times Washington played at Verizon Center it fell by 21 points to the Hawks and lost in double overtime to the Timberwolves. The loss to Minnesota likely doomed Washington to non-playoff status even before the five-game road swing.
I would be surprised if Randy Wittman - someone I regard as one of the weaker head coaches in the league - is back next season for Washington.
But what about the Nets? The bad news is no Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young, their two best players. Both have been shut down for the season. The oddsmaker is spooked by the Nets after seeing them get blown out by the decimated Pelicans, 106-87, two days ago. Bojan Bogdanovic, who may be Brooklyn's best player now, was rested that game and point guard Donald Sloan missed the game due to illness. Both should play against the Wizards. The loss of Lopez is somewhat mitigated in this matchup because the Wizards have gotten smaller this season.
The Nets have a bunch of young, unproven players drawing big minutes now. The pluses in that are fresh legs - important this late in the season - and the ability to play hard with futures up in the air. The Nets aren't tanking either since their prize lottery picks goes to Boston. The backdoor should be wide open, too, with the Wizards playing at the Pistons on Friday in their biggest game of what's left in their season.

After 54 consecutive regular-season home victories, the Warriors finally lost at Oracle Arena knocked off by the Celtics, 109-106, in their last game two nights ago. How will Golden State respond? I believe they respond in a big way with a blowout home victory against Portland, a team that dealt the Warriors their most lopsided loss of the season back in February.
Golden State hasn't dropped back-to-back games all season. The Warriors' average winning margin following each of their losses this season is 13.4 points. They are 19-9 ATS the past 28 times after a defeat. 
The Warriors don't play again until Tuesday when they host the lowly Timberwolves. So a full focused effort should be there. Golden State remains highly motivated to set the single-season wins record. The Warriors still haven't secured the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference either. The Warriors need to win five of their last six games to break the Bulls' 1995-96 record of 72 victories in a season.  
Portland is one of those tough-at-home, bad-on-the-road type teams. The Trail Blazers won their seventh straight home game defeating the Heat Saturday night. But have lost eight of their past nine road matchups. They are playing without rest, which is much rougher this late in the season.  
Golden State leads the NBA in scoring at 115 points per game. Portland has allowed an average of 118.9 points during its past nine away contests. The Trail Blazers don't have a good history either when playing at Golden State failing to cover in 20 of their last 27 visits. 
The Trail Blazers need their best player, Damian Lillard, to have a big game. Lillard, however, is in a slump shooting less than 30 percent from the floor during his last five games. Without a big game from Lillard, the Trail Blazers don't have nearly enough scoring to keep up with the Warriors. 

Since Jan. 10, only Golden State and San Antonio own better home records than Portland's 16-3 mark. Not only do I believe the Trail Blazers are better than the Celtics, but they are home and in a better spot. 
This is Boston's third of five consecutive West Coast games. Brad Stevens has squeezed out all of Boston's talent - there just isn't that much - and the Celtics have been hitting a late season wall going 4-5 SU, 3-6 ATS in their last nine games. Boston is 1-6 ATS in its last seven road matchups with the lone cover coming against the 76ers. When stepping up on the road against foes with a winning home record, the Celtics are a terrible 2-12 ATS.
Boston's best player is guard Isaiah Thomas, but he's trumped by Portland's star backcourt tandem of Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum. Not only is Portland fighting for playoff seeding - with the possibility they might get edged out of the postseason - but they have revenge for an embarrassing 23-point loss earlier this month to Boston in which Lillard and McCollum did not shoot well. 
Portland is averaging 114.4 points during its last 10 home games and has won five in a row at Moda Center. The Trail Blazers are rested having been home for a week. They are 9-2 ATS when playing on two days rest. 

The Warriors are chasing the 1995-96 Bulls for best record in a season. They are far superior to Utah. The spread is low enough to back Golden State.
The line is low because Utah has won eight of its last 10, is trying to hold on to a playoff spot and the Warriors had to play last night beating Washington at home, 102-94. But those aren't strong enough reasons to not fade the Jazz.
Golden State also is playing well winning 12 of its last 13, including five in a row. The Warriors have covered 58 percent of their road games this season despite frequently laying inflated numbers. The Warriors also are 16-2 when playing without rest. Golden State has owned the series winning 10 of the last 11 versus Utah, covering six of the past eight. The Warriors are 3-0 this season against the Jazz with an average winning margin of 14 points.  
Utah can't stay with Golden State offensively ranking 28th in scoring at less than 98 points per game, which includes a 123-75 rout of the Lakers this past Monday. That was a season high in points for the Jazz and could be another reason why this line is lower than I anticipated. The Lakers, though, are pathetic and quit in that game. 
So the Jazz go from the worst to the best. Utah has played only one team that would make the playoffs right now - Oklahoma City - during its last seven games. In addition to playing the Lakers during this span, the Jazz also played the Suns, Bulls, Bucks and Timberwolves. Utah has failed to cover eight of the last nine times when playing an opponent with a winning record. The evidence is just not there for the Jazz to step up against the best team in basketball that has motivated and monster matchup edges.  

I have no doubt Oakland is superior to East Tennessee State. My hesitation about backing Oakland in this Vegas 16 Tournament - the most minor of all the post-season  tournaments - is how motivated will the Golden Grizzlies be after having their sights set on reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011.
That didn't happen because Wright State upset Oakland in the Horizon League tournament semifinals. That occurred back on March 7. The Golden Grizzlies had not played since then until dispatching Towson, 90-72, on Monday. 
Now Oakland gets East Tennessee State, which beat a lackluster Louisiana Tech, 88-83, on Monday. I'm convinced Oakland is past its NCAA Tournament disappointment and will be focused to win this inaugural Vegas 16 Tournament. 
"That's why we wanted to be in this tournament because with the heartbreak of (the Wright State) loss and the expectations of the team, the expectations that we had put on ourselves, I don't think we could have been ready to play four days later in a minor tournament," Oakland coach Greg Kampe was quoted as saying. "So that's why we wanted to be in this and now we're making this a season, and we're going to try to win a season."
A motivated Oakland should destroy East Tennessee State, which hails from the Southern League. Oakland finished second to Valparaiso in the underrated Horizon League. No team scored more points per game than the Golden Grizzlies, who averaged 86.4 points and also had the seventh highest free throw percentage and 13th-best 3-point percentage in the country. East Tennessee State ranks 228th defensively giving up 73.8 points per game. 
Oakland features one of the best guards in the nation in Kay Felder, who led the country in assists with 9.3 a game and was the fourth-leading scorer in the nation at 24.2 points a game. The Golden Grizzlies are an impressive 22-6-1 ATS versus above .500 teams, are 24-5-1 ATS following a victory and have covered in their last six non-league games.

Absolutely must-win spot. Revenge angle. Better team. All of those fit why I like the Wizards to steamroll the Lakers. 
This is the start of a crucial five-game West Coast trip for the Wizards, who have lost two in a row after winning five straight to put their postseason hopes in dire straits. The Wizards have about a 12 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to several analytical websites. A loss to the Lakers would realistically kill any playoff hopes. 
The Wizards do draw the Lakers, Kings and Suns - three teams playing for next season - on this trip. However, they also get the Clippers and Warriors, who are 34-0 at home. So Washington can't afford a slip up here. 
If playoff incentive isn't enough, the Wizards should be sky-high for this matchup remembering how the Lakers beat them, 108-104, in front of a full house at Verizon Center in early December. Kobe Bryant was instrumental in that victory scoring 31 points. I'd be shocked if Bryant even produced a decent game here dealing with a right shoulder injury and shooting less than 36 percent from the field. 
During their five-game win streak, the Wizards held opponents to 41.3 percent shooting and 92.4 points a game. But in their last two games, the Hawks shot 53.6 percent from the floor and the Timberwolves made 53.1 percent of their field goals. The Lakers can't get hot like that. They rank last in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. Only two teams score fewer points per game than the Lakers. 
Making things worse for LA, is emerging point guard D'Angelo Russell isn't likely to play due to a sprained ankle. Few point guards are better than Washington's John Wall, who is going for his ninth consecutive double-double. 
The Lakers are one of the worst home teams in the league at 10-26, 16-20 ATS. They have failed to cover in five of their last six at Staples Center. The Wizards have covered during four of their last five road games against the Lakers. 

These two were long shots entering the NCAA Tournament, but here they are in the Sweet 16. I believe Gonzaga is for real while Syracuse is a tier lower than the Bulldogs catching several breaks to reach this point. 
The Bulldogs made their move winning the West Coast Conference by beating Portland, BYU and St. Mary's by an average of 13 points per game. Then in this NCAA Tournament, the Bulldogs stretched their winning and covering streak to seven in a row beating Seton Hall by 16 points and Utah by 23. Seton Hall had entered the NCAA Tournament off upsets of Xavier and Villanova. 
Syracuse was lucky to have even gotten a bid to play in the tournament losing five of its last six games entering the Big Dance. The Orangemen drew Dayton, which was 4-4 and 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, in the opening round. The Orange then got to meet overmatched Middle Tennessee State. which just two days earlier had posted one of the greatest upsets in NCAA Tourney history defeating Michigan State as a 16 1/2-points underdog. Neither Dayton nor Middle Tennessee State was nearly as good as Seton Hall and Utah.  
The Bulldogs have the height, offensive rebounding, passing skills and shooting ability to beat Syracuse's vaunted zone defense with studs  Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. Sabonis. Gonzaga has scored 82 or more points in five of its last seven games while shooting close to 52 percent from the floor in its last five matchups. The Bulldogs are doing it on the defensive end, too, holding Utah to 42 percent shooting. The Utes averaged 48.8 percent from the field, 10th-best in the nation. Utah could manage just 59 points against the Bulldogs. Seton Hall scored only 52 points. 
I always like to back a team that shoots better from the free throw line than their opponent and that's the case here in a huge way with the Bulldogs. Gonzaga ranks 15th in the country in free throw percentage at 75.8 percent. Syracuse rates 221st at 68.6 percent. 

I'm going to fire now on the Nets anticipating that Tyronn Lue is going to rest some of his key Cavaliers, maybe even LeBron James, which would likely result in a lower number. The Cavaliers are playing for the fifth time in seven days and off a hard-fought 113-104 home win against Milwaukee last night with James and Kyrie Irving each logging at least 37 minutes. 
The Nets' roster can't compare to Cleveland's. But Brooklyn is playing had and with spirit. The Nets' young players are trying to prove themselves. Sean Kilpatrick is providing an upgrade on Donald Sloan averaging 18 points during his last five games and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is back from an ankle injury. These under-the-radar players will give a full effort - something you can't assume the Cavaliers will have in this road flat spot. Cleveland is 3-11-2 ATS its last 16 road games when going against a foe with a losing home record. The Cavs also have failed to cover the last four times following a victory. 
I like the Nets' roster composition and energy much more now with Joe Johnson gone. A key to picking the right spot to back the Nets is making sure center Brook Lopez is playing. Brooklyn is 8-4 ATS the past 12 times Lopez has suit up. 
The Nets have double revenge motivation and have covered the past four times versus above .500 opponents. 

This is a natural letdown spot for the Hornets traveling to play a weak foe less than 24 hours after a stunning 91-88 home victory against San Antonio last night. The Hornets came from 23 points down to pull out the improbable win against the Spurs. There is a fatigue factor, too, for the Hornets playing for the fifth time in seven days.
The Nets have defeated the Hornets six of the past eight times at home. Brook Lopez, the Nets' best player, is expected to play after sitting because of a virus in the Nets' last game, a 115-103 road loss to the Pistons this past Saturday. The Nets are 7-4 ATS the past 11 times Lopez has played. Lopez's presence is huge because the Nets lack an inside game without him. 
Brooklyn is 5-1 ATS following a loss of more than 10 points and also is 8-2 ATS after not covering the spread in its previous game. 

A 94-85 home loss to Utah last night puts the Bucks 10 games under .500 and six games out of the last playoff spot in the East with a dozen games left. So, no, the Bucks aren't going to make the playoffs.
This is something Jason Kidd realizes. That's why he's made the decision to cut back on his starter's minutes and use the rest of the season to evaluate his entire roster. 
That decision helps make the Pistons even a stronger home favorite against the Bucks. 
Detroit defeated Milwaukee, 102-91, on Feb. 27 in the team's last meeting. That was in Milwaukee and the Pistons won despite making just 42 percent of their shots from the floor. The Pistons hold two strong edges on the Bucks - rebounding and point guard play with Reggie Jackson. The Bucks are thin at the key position. Michael Carter-Williams is out for the year. So is O.J. Mayo, who while not a true point guard was taking some of the load off by helping out with the ballhandling. 
The Bucks were outrebounded by the Jazz, 45-27, last night grabbing a laughable two offensive rebounds. Utah ranks fifth in the league in rebounding margin. Detroit is fourth. Andre Drummond is the No. 1 rebounder in the NBA. The Bucks rank 23rd in rebounding margin. 
The spot is good also for Detroit. The Pistons are in the fourth of a franchise-long nine straight home games. They are 20-11-2 (64%) ATS at home this season. Detroit also is 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times hosting a team with a winning percentage of less than .400. 
The Pistons are mere percentage points out of the final playoff spot in the East. They know the path to the playoffs lies in beating bad teams at home. Stan Van Gundy ripped Detroit's lack of defense in its last game, a lackluster 115-103 win against the Nets this past Saturday. 
Milwaukee is 9-26 in its road games. The Bucks have a losing spread mark away from home. They are playing without rest and finally realizing their playoff hopes aren't going to happen. 

Northern Iowa has a lot of things you look for in an underdog at this point of the season: The Panthers have NCAA Tournament experience, are well-coached, are hot with 13 wins in their last 14 games (12-1-1 ATS), rank 12th in the country defensively, rank 17th in free throw percentage and can make 3-pointers. They also have beaten a number of top teams, including North Carolina, Iowa State, Stephen F. Austin and Wichita State twice.

Yet the Panthers are downgraded because they are a mid-major and because of their miraculous 75-72 first-round upset victory against Texas when Paul Jesperson hit a buzz-beater from beyond half court.

Perhaps the Panthers don't have the fancy talent that some of the major conference teams have. But there are intangibles at work here. Ben Jacobson has been Northern Iowa's coach the past 10 seasons - and he's not going anywhere. He has honed an effective, close-knit system with excellent team work and chemistry. The Panthers are not about individuals. They fit well into a team structure. This might sound like a cliche, but teamwork can't be underestimated with an underdog at this late point of the season.

Texas A&M had not been to the NCAA Tournament since 2011 until this season. The Aggies were lucky to meet Green Bay in the first round, a team that doesn't play good defense at this high level. Northern Iowa holds foes to 63.2 points a game. The Panthers are 8-0-1 ATS the past nine times playing opponents with a winning percentage above .600.

The Clippers are in angry mood after Doc Rivers justifiably ripped his team following a 113-102 road loss to Memphis last night. The Clippers were beaten straight-up as double-digit favorites. 

Now the Clippers draw a team as decimated with injuries as the Grizzlies in the Pelicans. New Orleans has five players out for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. They soon may be joined by Anthony Davis, the team's one star.
Davis missed the second half of New Orleans' last game this past Friday with knee soreness. He also has a sore shoulder. There is talk the Pelicans may shut Davis down for the season since they aren't making the playoffs. Davis certainly isn't likely to play today. All of this has to be disheartening to an already disheartened Pelicans team. 
New Orleans is 2-9 in its last 11 games. The Pelicans' only victories during this span have come against the Kings. They are 2-7 ATS versus opponents with a winning record and are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall games. 
The Clippers have a good history of bouncing back - 9-2 ATS the past 11 times following a loss - and have defeated the Pelicans in all three meetings this season and 11 of the last 13 times.  

The Clippers are less awesome minus Blake Griffin. They don't have the star power to cover double-digit type road spreads in letdown spots, which this matchup is for them. 

The Clippers just buried the Rockets in Houston two nights ago in a highly-satisfying grudge match victory. Before that game, the Clippers played the Spurs and hosted the Cavaliers in a nationally televised matchup this past Sunday. Now the Clippers get the crippled Grizzlies. This is LA's third of five straight road games. The Clippers play at New Orleans on Sunday and then travel to Golden State in a real test matchup for them. So this looms as a flat spot for the Clippers.
LA is 1-5 ATS following a straight-up win and can be excused if it doesn't take the Grizzlies serious. Memphis is down Marc Gasol and Mike Conley. The Grizzlies' third best player, Zach Randolph, has missed the last seven games with a knee injury. 
The Grizzlies have lost four in a row, three of those coming on the road. They are fighting hard to maintain their playoff spot. This is a stop-the-pain game for the Grizzlies, who always have held a strong home-court. Memphis has won five of its last seven games at FedEx Forum despite its injuries. The Grizzlies have covered 73 percent of their last 22 home contests. They also have covered in 11 of the past 13 meetings versus the Clippers.
There's a chance both Randolph and Vince Carter, who has missed the last four games with a strained calf, return for this game. That would be an added bonus but I like the Grizzlies in this spread range even at far less than 100 percent. 
Lance Stephenson and Matt Barnes, two emotional players and former Clippers, are playing at high levels for Memphis. Stephenson is averaging 23.5 points, 8.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in his last four games, while Barnes has contributed an average of 16 points and 8.2 rebounds during his last five games. Both of these players will be sky-high for this matchup. 

The monster difference between the Big 12 - arguably the best conference in the nation - and the Ivy League doesn't merit this short of a spread. 
Baylor is way too athletic and talented for Yale, which has been able to feast on Ivy League competition while the Bears have gone against some of the best teams in the country. 
There is no chance either of Baylor overlooking the Bulldogs after the Bears were stunned, 57-56, by 14th-seeded Georgia State in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last year. 
Yale hasn't played in the NCAA Tournament since 1962! The Bulldogs also have been distracted by team captain Jack Montague's recent expulsion from the school amid rumors of sexual misconduct. He was the team's fourth leading scorer. 

Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne is well rested and excited about making its first NIT appearance since elevating to Division I status 16 years ago. 
San Diego State is not rested and is not excited about hosting this NIT matchup. It's a huge letdown for the Aztecs to play in the NIT rather than the NCAA Tournament. This is a short turnaround for San Diego State having played for the third time in three days this past Saturday. The Aztecs have had a sellout during their last 72 home games. That streak is going to end here as Viejas Arena only is expected to be half full. I don't see the Aztecs being mentally and physically ready to cover this big of a number. 
San Diego State has the No. 4 defense in the country. However, the Aztecs average only 68 points per game and their Mountain West Conference had a down season this year. San Diego State also has concerns about the health of its backcourt. 
IPFW has an RPI rating of 72, which is comparable to the rating Fresno State had prior to the Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Bulldogs upset the Aztecs, 68-63, to win the Mountain West Conference Tournament. 
The Mastodons have the best player in the Summit league in guard Max Landis. They are well rested since the Summit League's tournament was played the previous week giving the Mastodons an eight-day break to recharge their batteries. 
IPFW can score averaging 80.2 points a game, 26th-best in the nation. The Mastodons rank fourth in the country in 3-pointers made and are eighth in shooting percentage. The Mastodons also are road tested having played 20 times away from Fort Wayne while going 12-4 (75%) ATS in their lined road contests. 

Short-handed New Orleans is way overmatched to begin with and the situation makes it worse.
New Orleans is 1-7 in its last eight games. This marks the depth-shy Pelicans' third road game in four days and fourth in six days. They have lost five players for the season, including two of their top four players in Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. The Pelicans also could be missing point guard Norris Cole for a fourth straight game. He's dealing with a back problem. 
The Pelicans are 7-26 on the road with five straight road losses. They stand a far better chance of winning away from home in their next game when they meet Sacramento on Wednesday. 
Golden State ranks No. 1 in points per game and 3-point shooting. No guard tandem comes close to making as many 3-pointers as Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson. 
The Pelicans rank 25th in points allowed per game, 25th in defensive field goal percentage and 26th in 3-point defensive field goal percentage. They can't stop the Warriors. They can only hope to stay within shouting distance. That's likely going to mean a strong game from their streak-shooting top 3-point man, Ryan Anderson. However, Anderson is in a cold spell missing 23 of 28 shots from beyond the arc during the last five games. 

The Warriors own the best start in NBA history at 59-6. They are 30-0 at home. They have beaten the Pelicans eight times in a row at home. You always worry about a team being overconfident and flat when laying this many points. But I see the Warriors maintaining their intensity. 
Golden State received a wake-up call from the Suns during its last game, a 123-116 home win two days ago. The Warriors trailed by nine points in the fourth quarter in that game. The Warriors do not play again until Wednesday when it hosts the Knicks. So there is no look-ahead negative factor. The Warriors have dominated Western Conference foes, too, ATS-wise going 21-10-1 (68 percent) the past 32 times. 
 

Nearly decimated New Orleans gave it all it had before losing in overtime to Memphis last night. The Pelicans have lost five players for the season, including key cogs Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon. All but one of New Orleans' starters played at least 41 minutes last night. Anthony Davis logged 47 minutes. Top reserve Ryan Anderson went nearly 37 minutes. Point guard Norris Cole didn't play and is questionable for this matchup. 
This is the Pelicans' fourth game in six days. The Bucks have been idle since Wednesday and have a strong revenge motivation after the Pelicans embarrassed them, 116-99, at New Orleans on Jan. 23. The Pelicans shot an incredible 17 of 31 from 3-point range in that win. 
New Orleans is 1-6 in its last seven games and out of playoff contention. The Pelicans are 7-25 on the road, including losing 23 of their past 30 away contests. The Bucks are seven games above .500 at home. 

Both teams have strong offenses, but Fresno State is better defensively and is the fresher team. The Bulldogs also are peaking at the right time winning nine of their past 10, including their last seven games. 
Colorado State isn't as deep as Fresno State and is playing for the third time in three days. The Rams played in the late game last night exerting a lot of energy in upsetting Boise State, 88-81, as a seven-point underdog. 
The Bulldogs have the Mountain West Conference Player of the Year in Marvelle Harris and beat Colorado State during their lone meeting this season, 87-73, at home on nine days ago. 

Phoenix is 3-2 in its last five games and coming off an impressive 109-100 road win against the Grizzlies this past Sunday. But don't for an instant think the Suns are any good. They aren't. Neither are the Knicks. This is bad on bad and the point spread has become out of whack here.
The Knicks opened three-point favorites. Now that's been reversed. This is a clear over adjustment. The Suns not only have failed to cover the last four times they were home favorites, but lost straight-up each time. They also were 0-10 ATS following a victory until upsetting Memphis. 
Carmelo Anthony will be the best player on the court and he's been hot - averaging 26.4 points in his last five games. Star Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis should be less rusty, too, after shooting just 3-for-11 from the field in last night's road loss to the Nuggets. He had missed the game before that with a bruised leg. 
The Knicks were bad in that loss. But in their two prior games, they beat the Pistons by 13 at home and lost to the hot Celtics by one point on the road. New York was 3-0 ATS in its last three away contests before laying an egg against the Nuggets.  

Penn has depth and is much improved from last season. The Quakers nearly upset Princeton as seven-point home 'dogs losing 73-71 in overtime back in January. The Quakers blew an 11-point lead with four minutes left.
So Penn has strong revenge motivation for this final game of the season. Keep in mind there is no conference tournament in the Ivy League. That's a bad break for the Tigers, whose hopes of winning the conference were dashed when Yale clinched the title with a victory this past Saturday. 
Princeton is way overpriced in this matchup. Not only has Penn covered 13 of the last 16 in this series, including four of the past five, but the Tigers are 1-4 in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS at home versus foes with losing road records. The Tigers also are 0-4 ATS the past four times following a victory. 

I want the Warriors off their most shocking and worst-played game of the season, a 112-95 road loss to the Lakers Sunday afternoon. The Warriors haven't shot as bad from 3-point range as they did against the Lakers - 4-for-30 - since December of 2013. 
I have to believe the Warriors are going to be in a super kill mood returning home where a victory tonight would break the Bulls' NBA record for consecutive home wins. The Warriors scheduled a shootaround today even though they played yesterday. It's the first time they have had a shootaround the day of a game when playing without rest and it demonstrates how serious they are taking this matchup. 
Golden State is 20-7-1 ATS the past 28 times when playing on the second of consecutive days and also 15-5 ATS the past 20 times after not covering the spread during their last game. 
Orlando couldn't give the Warriors a battle when it was in a much better spot playing at home on Feb. 25. The Magic lost 130-114 as eight-point underdogs. Stephen Curry scored 51 points in that contest, but the rest of the Warriors didn't play that well. It was a flat game for Golden State and they still beat the Magic by 16 points on the road. 
Now the Magic not only face what should be an aroused and embarrassed Warriors squad, but also are off a highly-deflating, 102-84 home loss to the lowly Suns this past Friday. That dropped the Magic's record to 8-21 in their last 29 games and put a stop to any realistic talk about them making the playoffs. This is what Magic coach Scott Skiles was quoted as saying following that defeat. "We should probably stop talking about (the playoff chase) right now because this was a game we had to have." 
Orlando is 4-9 ATS following a double-digit loss at home. 

Yes, Purdue is tough at home. But the oddsmaker isn't giving enough respect to Wisconsin with a line this high. The Badgers have won 11 of their last 12 games - losing only to Michigan State during this span - while going 10-2 ATS. 
The Badgers are playing their best ball after a slow start. They need this game to lock up their 18th consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance and earn a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Wisconsin has covered 10 of the past 11 times following a victory.
Purdue is 22-1 SU in its last 23 home games. But the Boilermakers haven't been that sharp failing to cover in five of their last eight games in West Lafayette, including their past three home contests. Purdue caught Wisconsin early in the season before the Badgers caught fire beating them by six points. The last time the Boilermakers swept the Badgers was 2008-09. 
This has been a road series with the visitor covering six of the past seven times. It also has been a close series with three of the past four games decided by six points or fewer. Note, too, that Purdue is 1-6-1 ATS when playing a foe with a winning percentage above .600. 

Detroit played last night, but it's Portland that carries a high fatigue rating in this matchup. The Pistons were idle for two days before losing to the Knicks, 102-89, on Saturday. Now they return home where they have covered 64 percent of their games at The Palace of Auburn Hills. 
Prior to losing to the Knicks, the Pistons had held their previous five opponents to an average of 93.6 points a game. Detroit is a top 10 defensive club and thanks to Andre Drummond one of the best rebounding teams in the league. 
Portland ranks 16th defensively and is at the end of a its six-game road trip. This marks the Trail Blazers' fourth away matchup in six days. Portland stayed hot opening with three victories on their trip, but now have lost two in a row falling to Boston and Toronto. You would have to go back to 2006 to find the last time the Trail Blazers finished a trip of at least six games with a winning record. 
This is statement time for the Pistons if they are serious about making the playoffs. The key for the Pistons is finding their offense. They were held to 81 points on the road against the Spurs this past Wednesday and only managed 89 versus the Knicks last night. Keep in mind, though, the Spurs are the No. 1 defensive team in the league. The Pistons just suffered an off-game against the Knicks as Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris, who had been playing well since coming to Detroit, were a combined 8-for-37 from the floor versus New York. 
I envision Stan Van Gundy having the Pistons fired up for this Sunday home game and their offense should step up versus a mediocre opposing defense and tired opponent. 

A month ago Avery Bradley hit a buzzer beater as the Celtics upset the Cavaliers in Cleveland, 104-103. The Cavaliers haven't forgotten. Not only is this a huge revenge spot for them, but it's a great situation, too. 
Both teams played Friday night. The Cavaliers waltzed past the Wizards, 108-83, at home. Kyrie Irving was the only Cleveland player to log more than 31 minutes. Kevin Love received the night off. He'll be fresh. 
Boston, on the other hand, had to rally from eight points down in the final four minutes to nip the lowly Knicks, 105-104, at home last night. The Celtics had to exert a lot of energy to pull out that victory. Now the Celtics immediately fly out to Cleveland for their first road game since Feb. 22. Boston has been outstanding at home, but are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four road games losing to the Timberwolves, Jazz and Bucks. The Cavaliers were idle for three days before rolling past the Wizards. They are far more rested than Boston.
The Celtics rely on fast breaks and the scoring of Isaiah Thomas. However, the Cavaliers rank fifth in defending opponents fast breaks and Thomas is shooting under 32 percent from the field against the Cavaliers in nine games against them since he joined Boston. 
This is statement time for the Cavaliers being the dominant team in the Eastern Conference. They want to prove that to the upstart Celtics and the spot lays out well for them to achieve that. 

Kentucky has much to prove on the road. I see the Wildcats bouncing back following a 12-point road loss to Vanderbilt by solidly defeating fading Florida, which has dropped three in a row and is 0-4 in its last four home games. 
I expect a much stronger defensive effort from Kentucky after John Calipari lit into his team about giving the Commodores too many layups and dunks. Star Kentucky guard Tyler Ulis also is in back bounce mode after a rare terrible performance. 
Florida is 2-8 against top 50 RIP ranked teams. The Gators are surrendering an average of 85 points during their last three games and are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. 
The Wildcats rolled past the Gators, 80-61, nearly a month ago in the first meeting despite not having third-leading scoring Alex Poythress. The senior forward is healthy for this game. 

Memphis is 10 games above .500 and 4-2 since losing its best player, Marc Gasol, to a broken right foot. The Grizzlies are still a borderline playoff team without Gasol, at their best versus lower tier opponents such as the Nuggets. The Grizzlies have defeated Denver four straight times and are in a great spot to continue that streak.
The Grizzlies should be primed for a strong, concentrated effort after an embarrassing, 111-106, road loss to the Suns on Saturday. This is what Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley was quoted as saying following that loss: "We still feel like we are rolling right now and playing good basketball. For us to come out and not play our best, I think our focus level wasn't where it need to be." 
Denver is 13 games below .500. The Nuggets are headed for worse, too, after losing their best player, Danilo Gallinari. He suffered a severe ankle injury in the Nuggets' last game, a 122-116 overtime loss to the Mavericks. 
Gallinari is the key to the Nuggets. He leads the team in scoring at 19.5 points and also is the man when the offense breaks down -which it often does - by his ability to get to the free throw line when nothing is going on. Gallinari connects on 86.8 percent of his free throws. Even with Gallinari's great free throw percentage, the Nuggets rank 16th in the NBA in free throw percentage at 76.5 percent. Now that mediocre percentage is headed lower with Gallinari sidelined. Denver went 1-5 in December when Gallinari missed six games with another ankle injury. 
The Grizzlies still have the veteran savvy, huge point guard edge with Conley and bench to cover this short road number against a Denver team that could be reduced to a starting lineup of D.J. Augustin, Gary Harris, Kenneth Faried, Darrell Arthur and JaKarr Sampson. Faried is the only legitimate starter of that bunch. 

The Heat have dominated the Knicks, winning eight of the past nine times, including going 4-0 SU and ATS at Madison Square Garden.
Miami is the superior team, but the oddsmaker has downgraded the Heat because they have injuries and played on Saturday. 
Chris Bosh, second-string point guard Beno Udrih and third-string point guard Tyler Johnson are all out for the Miami. But the Heat just signed veteran Joe Johnson, who may be able to play, and are 3-2 since the All-Streak break minus Bosh beating three decent Eastern Conference teams - Hawks, Wizards and Pacers. The Heat's lone defeats since break have come against the Warriors by six points and on the road against the Celtics, who have won 10 in a row at home. 
Miami is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Eastern Conference games and steps way down in class. Fatigue shouldn't be that much of a problem because the Heat played a day game yesterday. Miami has a winning record when playing without rest. They've adjusted to the loss of Bosh with veteran Luol Deng stepping up. Johnson isn't a big loss. 
The Knicks are lottery-bound again. They are a bit fat and happy after beating Orlando, 108-95, this past Friday. Before that game, though, the Knicks had dropped nine of 10. They are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. New York also isn't entirely healthy. Carmelo Anthony, Arron Afflalo and Kristaps Porzingis all missed practice on Saturday with assorted injuries. 

Colorado State defeated Nevada Reno, 76-67, as three-point home favorites three weeks ago. Nevada Reno's star point guard Marquez Coleman played 33 minutes in that game. Colorado State, which often lives and dies with the 3-pointer, missed 24 of 32 from 3-point range in that game. The Rams did get 26 more rebounds than the Wolf Pack.
Now it's rematch time and the Wolf Pack are likely to be missing Coleman, their leading scorer. He has a severely sprained ankle. It would be a surprise if he played. The Wolf Pack are not a deep team. Colorado State is not a good matchup for them. The Rams are an up-tempo, high scoring team that draws the seventh most fouls in the country. They rank 31st in the country averaging 79.9 points a game. 
The Wolf Pack have struggled with the higher scoring teams in the Mountain West Conference while faring better versus the grind-out type teams. This is the wrong opponent at the wrong time for Nevada-Reno. 

Montana is in position to grab its first regular-season win at Weber State since 2004. Weber State heavily relies on guard Jeremy Senglin and big man Joel Bolomboy. The duo has  accounted for 46 percent of the Wildcats' scoring. However, the 6-foot-9 inch Bolomboy suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game and the senior power forward is not expected to play. 
This is a huge loss for the Wildcats, who don't have anyone averaging double figures in scoring aside from Senglin and Bolomboy. Losing Bolomboy also hurts the Wildcats defensively as he is their leading rebounder and shot blocker. He also averages 17.6 points a game. 
Montana ranks among the top 40 in defensive rebounding. The Grizzlies have won seven of their past eight games, including the last five. This is the first time they've been an underdog in a Big Sky Conference game all season. Martin Breunig, the Grizzlies' 6-8 senior forward, should be in line for a big game without Bolomboy to hinder him. Breunig leads the Grizzlies in scoring at 19 points a game. 
Weber State has failed to cover in its last six games, including the past three at home. The Wildcats are overrated and vulnerable missing Bolomboy. 

Even a well-coached, veteran team such as the Spurs can be excused if they are anxious to finally get home. This marks the final game of the Spurs' annual "Rodeo Road Trip." They are 6-1 in their last seven games, all on the road. 
The Rockets have covered the past six times at home versus San Antonio. Houston should have its confidence up, too, after overcoming a 21-point second-half deficit to defeat red-hot Portland on the road this past Thursday. The Spurs are just 4-9 ATS the past 13 times facing Houston. 
Both James Harden and Dwight Howard are playing well. Harden is averaging 34.4 points in five games following All-Star break. Howard has posted five double-doubles in his last six games. 

This is a big revenge spot for Indiana. The Hornets whipped the Pacers by 23 points on Feb. 10. That was the game, though, where the Hornets lost Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, their best defender, for the season. 

Despite that injury the Hornets were riding high winning five in a row until falling 114-103 on the road to the Cavaliers two nights ago. I could envision the Hornets letting down after their streak was snapped.
Paul George is having a huge season for the Pacers. George had 22 points in the Feb. 10 loss, but rookie forward Myles Turner contributed only 10 points. Turner is playing much better now averaging 17 points since the All-Star break. 
Indiana is at its point spread best versus Eastern Conference opponents going 21-10-1 ATS for 68 percent. 

San Antonio is a very good team without Kawhi Leonard. But when they have Leonard, the Spurs rank with the Warriors as the top team in the NBA. Leonard came back last night after missing three games with a calf injury and helped spark the Spurs to an easy 16-point win against the Kings. Leonard will be less rusty now that he's had a game.
Yes, the Spurs played last night. But they were idle the previous two days. So there shouldn't be a fatigue factor. The Spurs are at least several tiers higher than Utah. The Spurs have a huge coaching, guard and bench edge. 
San Antonio gives up the fewest points per game in the NBA and has the highest margin of victory. When Leonard is in the lineup, the Spurs allowed just 92 points a game. The Jazz average 98.4 a game, which ranks 26th. 

Considering the class difference and matchup - the Spurs are 2-0 versus the Jazz this season winning by 25 and 37 points - San Antonio should easily be able to cover this number. 

South Carolina is a dominant 14-1 at home this season. The Gamecocks have covered 14 of their last 17 at home, including going 9-3 ATS this season. 
Tennessee is coming off an impressive 81-65 home victory against LSU. However, the Volunteers haven't won back-to-back SEC games all season and are 0-6-1 ATS following a straight-up victory. They also aren't likely to have have leading scorer, Kevin Punter. He missed the victory against the Tigers because of a stress fracture in his foot. Teams often play well the first time without their star player with the rest of the team stepping up wanting to prove something. It's more difficult the second time without a star especially following a victory. 
Punter scored 36 points when Tennessee defeated South Carolina, 78-69, at home on Jan. 23. So this is a huge revenge spot for the Gamecocks, who lead the SEC in rebounding and have a substantial frontcourt height advantage. 

First off, UNLV isn't very good on the road. The Rebels are 2-8 in true away contests this season. They've failed to cover in their last four road matchups.
Second, the Rebels are near depleted. Already down big men Stephen Zimmerman and Ben Carter, their two leading rebounders, the Rebels now won't have key reserve Dwayne Morgan, who had been averaging close to 20 minutes. He's out with a shoulder injury. That leaves the Rebels down to six scholarship players.
The third key factor here is the situation. UNLV is off a crazy overtime victory against in-state rival Nevada this past Saturday at home. The Rebels tied the game on a 3-pointer by Patrick Macaw right before the buzzer sending the game into overtime. 
The spot is a double edge sword because not only do the Rebels have to come down from that high, pulling out a game against their most hated rival, but Boise State is rested, ready and has revenge. The Broncos last played on Wednesday. They blew a 76-61 lead to lose on the road to New Mexico in their last game. 
So not only are the Broncos itching to erase that stench, but have payback for a 10-point road loss to the Rebels. UNLV had Zimmerman and Carter in that matchup. The two combined for 28 points and 19 rebounds in that game. 
Boise State is up-tempo. The Rebels are going to be hard-pressed to keep up with the Broncos being short-handed and at a tough road venue. 

The Warriors aren't just great at home. They also are an NBA-best 25-5 on the road, including 18-11-1 (62 percent) ATS on the road. The Warriors also are 12-5 following a non-spread cover. 
Atlanta already has lost six more games than it did all of last season. The Hawks aren't in good form either losing and failing to cover in four of their last five. Both teams are playing for the third time in four days, but the Warriors have the stronger bench. 
Hawks point guard Jeff Teague is dealing with a wrist injury. The Warriors have a couple of their big men out, but the Hawks are not a good rebounding team. Atlanta also is missing backup big man Tiago Splitter, out for the year after hip surgery. 

The Pistons have covered 64 percent of their home games this season and have revenge for an embarrassing 115-99 road loss to New Orleans from last month. 
While Detroit is a top home team, New Orleans is a terrible road team. The Pelicans are 6-21 away from home, 11-16 ATS. The Pistons have covered nine of the last 11 times against opponents with a losing road mark. New Orleans also is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games versus Eastern Conference opponents.
The Pistons upgraded themselves at the trade deadline. Their main pickup, Tobias Harris, scored 21 points off the bench this past Friday against the Wizards in his Detroit debut. 
New Orleans is the longest of shots to get a playoff berth. Detroit, on the other hand, is very much in playoff contention. The Pistons can't afford to be flat here at home with a road game against the Cavaliers on Monday. 
I see the Pistons going all out to halt their four-game losing streak. Anthony Davis is an outstanding big man, but Detroit's Andre Drummond is having as good as any season a big man is having. He is leading the league in rebounding and has a higher field goal percentage than Davis. 

This is a battle for first place in the Big West Conference and one of Irvine's biggest home games ever. A rare sellout crowd is expected. 
The Anteaters have revenge for a road loss to Hawaii. Before that loss, Cal Irivne had covered four in a row versus the Rainbow Warriors. The Anteaters are 10-1 at home this season and have covered 10 of their last 14 Big West games.
Cal Irvine ranks 42nd in the country in defense holding foes to less than 66 points a game. The Anteaters have a big rebound/shot blocking edge at center with 7-foot-6 Mamedou Ndiaye. 
Hawaii also could be without guard Aaron Valdes, its second-leading scorer. He's been sick with the flu so even if he plays he may still be under the weather.

Golden State is the best team in basketball. The Warriors haven't dropped two in a row all season - and I don't see it happening here. The Warriors should be extremely focused and fired-up following a shocking 137-105 road loss to Portland Friday night. The Trail Blazers are tough at home and brought their "A" game. The Warriors were rusty and not as focused as they should have been coming off All-Star break. 
The Clippers are off a hugely-satisfying 19-point home win versus San Antonio two nights ago. The Clippers are more bullies than elite. I question their mental makeup and heart. The Clippers are 5-12-1 ATS against foes who have a winning percentage above .600. They are 6-13 ATS at home versus opponents who sport a winning road mark. I don't see the Clippers being able to beat the Spurs and Warriors in a row even at home. 
Golden State has covered 64 percent of its road games this season and is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 Pacific Division games. The Warriors still will be fresh, too. This is just the Warriors' second game in 10 days and none of their players logged more than 30 minutes last night. 
There are plenty of All-Stars in this matchup, but none the caliber of Stephen Curry, who is having one of the greatest seasons in NBA history. No one can guard Curry certainly none of the Clippers' weak backcourt defenders. Golden State has defeated the Clippers four consecutive times, including winning both meetings this season. 

The Wizards started slow last season, but ended up finishing 10 games above .500, earned the No. 5 spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs and swept the Raptors in the first round. 
Now, though, at the All-Star break the Wizards find themselves in 10th place, three games away from the playoffs. Basically the Wizards have nearly the same roster. I expect them to make a move now that Bradley Beal is healthy and John Wall is having a superstar-type season. Wall suffered a bruised knee in the Wizards' final game before the break, but showed he was OK scoring 22 points on 10-of-14 shooting in the All-Star Game. 
Utah is 26-26. The line is priced too low in my opinion because the Jazz entered break winning seven of their last eight games. But those victories came on the road against the Mavericks in overtime, at the Suns and the rest were at home versus the struggling Bulls, Bucks, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Hornets. That's not exactly Murder's Row. The Jazz have failed to cover in nine of their last 13 away games. 
This matchup could be a season-defining moment for the Wizards. They can't waste any time getting things turned around especially taking a home loss to this mediocre opponent with their trumped-up recent record. 
This game was supposed to be played last month, but a massive snowstorm caused a postponement. Because of that, Washington has to play Detroit at Verizon Center on Friday and then at Miami on Saturday. That's three games in three days. 

Tulane is coming off a 94-87 overtime home win against Memphis as seven-point 'dogs. Does this suddenly make the Green Wave a good team? No. Tulane is six games under .500 on the season and just 3-10 in the Atlantic Athletic Conference despite that victory. The Green Wave are 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times they have gone against an opponent with a winning record. 
Houston is much the superior team. The Cougars proved that when they routed the Green Wave, 63-45, as 10 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 5. Tulane's previous two home games before upsetting Memphis were against Central Florida and South Florida. The Green Wave lost both of those games straight-up as a home favorite. They lost by eight to Central Florida and by 13 to South Florida. 
Houston averages 78.6 points per game. The Cougars hold foes to less than 70 points a game while compiling an 18-7 record. They are 5-1 in their last six games. 
Tulane holds foes to 70 points a game, but doesn't have the offense to keep up with Houston ranking 304th in scoring at 66.7 points a game and 327th in shooting percentage at 40.3 percent. Houston is the better team and also peaking while Tulane is a letdown mode after its biggest win of the season.  

Ball State is favored on the road for the first time since its opening away matchup back on Nov. 13 against Bradley, who beat the Cardinals, 54-53. 
Since then the Cardinals have been road 'dogs eight straight times. The last being this past Saturday when they upset Central Michigan - the team picked to capture the Mid-American West Division - 75-63 as eight-point 'dogs. 
Ball State is 0-5 ATS the past five times following a victory. The Cardinals have a bigger game on deck hosting Northern Illinois on Friday. So this is a potential trap spot for the Cardinals, who have lacked consistency all season. Since the beginning of MAC play, the Cardinals haven't won more than two consecutive games. 
Ball State is 9-19 ATS in its last 28 MAC matchups and 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing at Miami of Ohio. The Red Hawks should have defeated Ball State in the first meeting as 6 1/2-road 'dogs on Jan. 16. Ball State came back from 14 points down to win, 48-46. 

The Red Hawks not only have revenge motivation but focus shouldn't be a problem either after they were embarrassed, 93-49, on the road against Toledo this past Saturday. Prior to that the Red Hawks had won and covered three of four, including the past two two. 

At stake here is sole possession of second place in the Horizon League, which means a lot because the top two seeds in this conference tournament draw double byes. 
If you go by the Pomeroy ratings, you'll find Oakland ranked 101st and Wright State rated 138th. Oakland is the superior team and Wright State's home-court isn't enough to offset that edge even acknowledging that the Raiders have won 10 in a row at Nutter Center. 
Wright State last played at home nine days ago. The Raiders are off a huge road win against Horizon League leader Valparaiso this past Saturday, The Raiders, 13-point underdogs in that game, won on a last-second putback basket by Biggie Minnis. 
It may take a while for the Raiders to come down after that victory. They are 4-10 ATS following a cover and have failed to cover in five of their last six games played on Monday. 
Oakland is the highest scoring team in the league averaging 87.1 points a game, which ranks second nationally. The Golden Grizzlies are No. 1 in the conference in free throw percentage and 3-point percentage. Oakland guard Kay Felder leads the league in scoring at 24.7 per game. He had 33 points when the Grizzlies buried the Raiders, 89-63, on Jan. 22. Wright State failed to slow the tempo down in that matchup. 
The Golden Grizzlies are the only team in the Horizon League without a conference road loss. They've won their past six away games and are 21-4-1 ATS following a victory. They have too much offense for Wright State, averaging nearly 20 points more per game than the Raiders. 

Normally I don't get involved with All-Star games, but this game is an exception.

The West roster isn't just better than the East roster - it's vastly superior. LeBron James is the only player on the East I would rate as among the top 10 players in the game. The West has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Kawhi Leonard, Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, James Harden and Chris Paul. 

The East can't come close to matching that talent and depth. The West also has a huge coaching edge with Gregg Popovich, one of the greatest coaches of all time, against novice Tyronn Lue, who shouldn't even be coaching in this game. 

The West has multiple teammates playing - Durant, Westbrook from the Thunder, Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge from the Spurs and Curry, Green and Klay Thompson from the Warriors. These guys are all used to playing with each other. 

These huge edges are more than enough to overcome the randomness factor that can pop up in exhibition games. 

Illinois State is coming off three wins and covers, the last two as double-digit 'dog winners against MIssouri Valley Conference leader Wichita State at home -  coming from 18 points down to do it - and winning at Evansville this past Thursday. The victory against Evansville moved Illinois State into second place in the league. Now the Redbirds get a well deserved home rest stop against Bradley, which is second-to-last in the conference.
The Redbirds are laying a huge number- an opening 18 to 18 1/2 points - in this rivalry matchup. The Redbirds haven't been favored by more than 8 1/2 points all season. Their largest victory margin versus a board foe is 13 points. 
The two teams met on Jan. 20 and Illinois State won, 55-52, as an 11-point favorite. Bradley shot 31.2 percent from the floor. The Braves shoot 36.7 percent on the season. 
The Missouri Valley is a conference known for well-coached, disciplined teams that play strong defense. Illinois State certainly fits that mold giving up less than 67 points per game. But the Redbirds also only score 67 points a game. Bradley doesn't score much, but the Braves surrender less than 70 points a game. The Braves are giving up an average of just 56 points during their last two games. 
Bradley is going to play at a slow, deliberate pace. The total is low. So taking this many points in a rivalry matchup is huge especially against a foe in a letdown spot. 

Cal-Northridge can't match Cal-Irvine's defense, but the Matadors average more points, shoot better from the floor and have a far better free throw percentage than Irvine.
The Anteaters are 8-1 at home, but the Matadors have covered the last five times they've been on the road versus opponents with a home winning percentage above .600. Northridge has covered four of its five Big West road contests.
The Matadors last played on Wednesday defeating Cal-State Fullerton, 75-67, at home. Irvine had to play on Thursday in Honolulu losing a Big West showdown battle with host Hawaii, 74-52. The Anteaters have a quick rematch with Hawaii hosting them next Saturday.
Meanwhile, the Anteaters have to get their sea legs back under them, along with their mental focus, returning back to California for this matchup. It's not a great spot for the Anteaters and Northridge has enough going to keep it close. 

New Orleans doesn't have the defense to control the Thunder. The Pelicans rank 24th both in points allowed and defensive field goal percentage. Oklahoma City ranks No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 109.9 points a game and has been averaging 112.4 points during its last 15 games. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are each playing at high levels and the Thunder have the big bodies in Serge Ibaka and Steven Adams to slow down Anthony Davis. Durant is averaging 36.3 points during his last three games.
The spot is ripe, too, for Oklahoma City. New Orleans has won two in a row. Those victories were against Minnesota and Utah. Now the Pelicans jump way up in class following a narrow 100-96 home win against the Jazz last night. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS following a cover. This is the Pelicans' third game in four nights. Their depth is down with Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans out. 
The Thunder are 13-2 in their last 15 games with their lone loss during their last seven games coming on the road to Golden State. 

I like Brad Stevens a lot. But there exits a huge talent gap between Stevens' Celtics and the Clippers. LA has enough star power to go 18-4 despite not having Blake Griffin the last 22 games. The Clippers don't need Griffin to beat Boston on the road especially given the circumstances of the matchup. 
The Clippers have been on the East Coast the past three days after getting away with a lackluster performance in a 98-92 overtime win against the 76ers this past Monday. The Celtics, on the other hand, are crossing a time zone flying into Boston in the wee hours of the morning following a bizarre 112-111 road loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday night. The Celtics clawed their way back from 18 points down in the final quarter to tie the game only to lose on a free throw by Khris Middleton with less than a second left after a deadball foul had been called.  
The Clippers have won 12 of their past 14 away contests. They feast on Eastern Conference foes going 11-3 in their last 14 games against them. They've covered 72 percent of their past 27 games versus Eastern Conference opponents.  LA received its wakeup call against the 76ers during its last game. The Clippers have covered each of the last eight times following a non-cover and also are 9-2 ATS when playing on one day's rest. 
Because of Doc Rivers and Paul Pierce, the Clippers get extra motivated when they play the Celtics especially in Boston. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS during their past six trips to Boston winning each of the four meetings since Rivers left the Celtics to become LA's coach. 
The Celtics have a strong bench. They are better than most teams when playing without rest. But Jamal Crawford - a streak shooter - has been the hottest reserve player in the NBA averaging 22 points during his last five games. 
The Clippers are at their best in these type of matchups, beating up a weaker Eastern Conference foe. The Clippers have the talent edge, are in a good spot already being in Boston before the Celtics arrive and have the motivation knowing they can't get away with being flat against this caliber of opponent especially when their first two games following All-Star break are against the two best teams in basketball - San Antonio and Golden State. 

The Knicks are broke and interim coach Kurt Rambis isn't going to fix them. Rambis was horrible when he coached the Timberwolves from 2009 to 2011 and he takes over a bad situation that isn't likely to get resolved until next season, certainly not during the brief period before All-Star break. 
The short Derek Fisher era was a disaster for the Knicks. New York was 40-96 during his reign. That's the worst percentage of any Knicks coach lasting longer than a season. Fisher was the Rich Kottie of New York basketball coaches. 
The Knicks are 1-9 in their last 10 games and have dropped five in a row failing to cover any of their last five. Yes, the Wizards are struggling, too. But they are a level above the Knicks, match up well to New York and catch the Knicks in a horrible transition spot. Not only is morale low with the Knicks, but there is dissension among the coaching ranks with the hiring of Rambis. 
New York is well deserving of its losing streak averaging fewer than 96 points during its last 10 games while surrendering more than 106 points per game during its last 15 contests. This the Knicks' final game before having 10 days off for All-Star break. I could very well see them mailing this one in. 
But what about the Wizards? The record shows they are 3-8 in their last 11 games. It also reveals Washington, though, to have played very tough opponents during this span including the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, Celtics twice, Rockets, Heat and Trail Blazers. 
The Wizards have had three days to stew about blowing a 19-point road lead to the Hornets this past Saturday in a 108-104 loss. The good news is John Wall continues to play at a high level, Bradley Beal is out of his minutes limitation and Nene could return for this game. Unlike the Knicks, the Wizards hold realistic playoff hopes and should have a great deal of urgency for this game. 
Washington hasn't dropped three consecutive road games all season. The Wizards have covered seven of their last nine road matchups. They have played their best against Eastern Conference clubs going 14-6 ATS. They also have beaten the Knicks seven of the past eight times while winning four in a row at Madison Square Garden.

Five times Denver has been an underdog this season. Five times the Broncos have covered winning four of those games straight-up.
The Panthers are this big of a favorite, in part, because of how strong they looked in beating the Cardinals by 34 points in the second of the two championship games. 
Denver holding New England to just 18 points the AFC title game is just as impressive, though. The Broncos held the Steelers and Patriots to an average of 17 points in playoff competition while dealing Tom Brady his lowest quarterback rating of the season. It's not a fluke. The Broncos ranked No. 1 in total defense, pass defense and sacks. 
Carolina's defense isn't as dominant relying on an NFL-best 39 takeaways and plus 20 turnover ratio. The Panthers are down two starters in their secondary and likely to be missing star linebacker Thomas Davis, who suffered a broken arm against the Cardinals. Davis was playing as well as any Carolina defender. Denver lost its starting safeties against New England, but both vowed to play in the Super Bowl. 
Carolina only beat one opponent, Seattle, with a winning record when it was playing outside of Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers lost to Atlanta the last time they were away from home. The Panthers have been to one Super Bowl - back in 2003. They are an inexperienced in this setting and a shaky favorite having nearly blown late leads against the Colts, Packers, Giants and Seahawks in the playoffs when they won 31-24 after being up 31-0. 
The Broncos are 'dogs in this range because of the quarterback matchup. Cam Newton deserves to be the MVP. Peyton Manning is Alex Smith now. But Manning also looked the healthiest he's looked in months. Manning may be the wisest quarterback to ever play. Certainly he's in that discussion. He knows his defense is elite - capable of winning the Super Bowl.
There is no more opportunistic team than the Panthers. The key for the Broncos is not turning the ball over. Manning's regular season statistics show horrific numbers - a 9-to-17 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a last-place passer rating. However, the savvy Manning hasn't turned the ball over during the playoffs. He had a 103.8 quarterback rating in the first half against the Patriots. 
Manning has better wide receivers than Newton and is smart enough to stay away from shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Instead, Manning will ride C.J. Anderson, who has been at least Jonathan Stewart's equal averaging 5.6 yards a carry during his last four games, and let his defense win the game. 
The Broncos just played in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. They are looking for atonement for a 43-8 loss to the Seahawks. The Panthers' defense isn't nearly as dominant as Seattle's was two years ago especially minus starting defensive backs Charles Tillman and Bene Benwikere. They also could be down safety Roman Harper and pass rusher Jared Allen. 
Newton and the Panthers are thrilled to be on center stage. How will they handle it? Accuracy isn't Newton's strength. If he comes out tight the Broncos' elite defense surely will take advantage. Wade Phillips is one of the sharpest defensive coordinators of all time. He has two weeks to prepare and major cards to defend against Newton, including a pair of dominant edge pass rushers in Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. 
The bottom line is taking more than a field goal with an elite defense, more experienced big-game team and having one of the sharpest quarterbacks of all-time with a better supporting cast around him. 

Miami is playing well and is healthier than it has been. However, the Clippers are a level higher and have been in Florida since Friday when they defeated the Magic, 107-93. So the Clippers shouldn't be bothered by the early start and difference in time.
The Clippers have won 17 of their last 21 games and have covered in nine of their last 11 road games.
The Clippers beat the Heat at home, 104-90, on Jan. 13 despite missing Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, who was out with an illness. Jordan is back and playing well with 15 or more rebounds in his last six games. Miami's Hassan Whiteside isn't going to be dominant squaring off against Jordan.
The Clippers also have been getting excellent bench production from streaky Jamal Crawford, who has scored 20 or more points in four of his last five games, including the past three. 

This is more than just a case of taking points in a matchup of two bad Sun Belt Conference teams. Both schools ranked in the top 25 in defense, but lack height and struggle to score while playing at a slow pace. 
So points should be at a premium like they were when they met for the first time this season on Jan. 2. Georgia State won that matchup, 58-46. It was the fourth straight time in the series that the road team covered as the line was pick'em. This gives Texas State revenge motivation. 
Now, a month later, Georgia State is nearly a double-digit favorite. Home-court certainly isn't worth that many points. Not only are the Panthers way down from last season, but they are in bad form. Georgia State is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS in its last five games with its lone victory during this span coming in overtime by three as an 11-point home favorite against Georgia Southern. That was the last time the Panthers were home, which was back on Jan. 19.
Texas State averages only 67.1 points a game. But that's still higher than Georgia State, which averages just 65.7 points a game. 

The Bulls are due to play better and Utah hasn't won three games in a row all season. 
Chicago should be fired-up after giving up an embarrassing 69 points in the second half during its 120-93 road loss to the Clippers on Sunday. That was a day game giving the Bulls a few extra hours in this second of consecutive games. The Bulls should be accustomed to the time difference as this is their third consecutive West Coast game. Chicago opened its road trip with a 114-91 victory against the Lakers this past Thursday. 
The Jazz are healthier than they have been, but I like the Bulls' talent better especially in the backcourt with Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose. The Jazz have played a very weak recent schedule - having faced the Timberwolves this past Friday in their last game, Hornets twice, Pistons, Nets, Knicks, Lakers and Kings. Detroit is the only one of those teams above .500.
Utah is 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing on two days rest. The Bulls have beaten Utah in seven of the past nine meetings.

I see a kill spot here for the Warriors after they narrowly escaped the 76ers last night, winning 108-105. The Warriors almost blew a 24-point lead. Look for a more focused effort after that scare especially now that they've settled into East Coast time playing their second of three road games in a row. 
Stephen Curry and Co. would like to prove themselves in the media center of the country with a big performance. The Warriors could be at full strength, too, with center Festus Ezeli possibly returning after missing two games with an injured knee and Andre Iguodala back after being rested for the first time this season in last night's game. 
Golden State is 10-1 when playing without rest. The Warriors also are 18-8-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 11-2 ATS following a non-cover. 
The Warriors lead the league in scoring and have been at their offensive-best averaging a staggering 122.3 points in their last seven games. The Knicks are much improved this season, but they have only managed to defeat the hapless Suns during their last five games.  

Boise State is 10-1 at home. New Mexico is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 road contests, 2-8 ATS when playing against a home opponent with a winning record. 
The Broncos may just have the best player in the Mountain West Conference in James Webb III. He scored 23 points when the Broncos beat New Mexico, 69-59, on the road last season. The Lobos held Webb in check in last season's rematch at Boise State. However, the Broncos still won, 76-65, because Nick Duncan connected on eight 3-pointers.
Don't expect anything to change now that we've turned the calendar year. Boise State remains a bad matchup for New Mexico because of the style of the two teams. Boise State is an up-tempo team that likes to fire up 3-pointers. The Broncos are especially dangerous at home. Discounting their game against San Diego State, which ranks first in the country in defensive field goal percentage, the Broncos are averaging 86.3 points during their last home contests. 
New Mexico can run, too, but often prefers to set up their big men with inside touches. The Lobos lack Boise State's scoring depth and explosiveness. 
Just two weeks ago, New Mexico lost to Wyoming at home. By contrast, Boise State just beat Wyoming by 10 points on the road a week ago. 

Mercer is frustrated after two straight road overtime losses. The Bears can take advantage of their angry mood being in a kill spot at home against overmatched VMI, which is 6-12 SU and 2-9 ATS. The Keydets have failed to cover during their last seven road games and nine of their past 10 away matchups. VMI's last four road losses have been by an average of 25.5 points.  
Mercer leads the Southern Conference in rebounding, has a very strong defense and can take advantage of VMI's weak defense and short lineup. The Bears are yielding an average of only 56 points per game at home holding opponents to 37 percent shooting from the floor. The Bears' average home victory this season has been by more than 17 points.