Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover ALL Sports Top Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-27-19	Colorado v. Texas -5.5	Top	55-68	Win	100	19 h 54 m	Show
Texas is home and the superior team. The Longhorns rank 30th, according to Kenpom ratings, while Colorado checks in at No. 63. The key question is how motivated are the Longhorns? They were tremendously disappointed not to make the NCAA Tournament. Colorado, on the other hand, has embraced the NIT with its young players having the attitude of using this tournament to gain valuable postseason experience for next year. Fewer than 1,600 fans showed up for Texas' first round home game in the NIT. Normally the Longhorns draw more than 10,000 fans for their home contests at the Erwin Center. The Longhorns doubled their attendance for their second NIT home game. Now with the Longhorns a win away from going to New York for the semifinals of the tournament, the fans and team are starting to get excited. If motivated, Texas should cover this number against Colorado. The Buffaloes are 5-8 in true road contests. Texas is 14-6 at home. Among the Longhorns' home wins were victories against Purdue, Oklahoma, Kansas, Baylor and Iowa State. All of those teams made the NCAA Tournament. The Big East was much better than the Pac-12 this season. Texas didn't make the Big Dance because it went 1-4 down the stretch, including losing to Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament. Star guard Kerwin Roach was suspended for all those games. Roach is back and off his best game in more than a month scoring 21 points with eight rebounds and six assists in the Longhorns' 78-76 overtime victory in their second-round NIT game against Xavier. That's a very encouraging sign for Texas. And just another reason why I like the Longhorns to cover this number.
03-26-19	Rockets +4 v. Bucks	Top	94-108	Loss	-100	20 h 44 m	Show
You would have to go back to Feb. 21 to find the last time the Rockets lost by more than four points. That's a span of 17 games. Houston is 14-2 in its last 16 games. The Rockets' only two losses during this 16-game span occurred to the Warriors by two points and on the road to the Grizzlies by one point in overtime. The Bucks are shorthanded in the backcourt and close to cruise control leading the Raptors by four games for best record in the Eastern Conference. The Rockets have revenge for a 116-109 home loss to the Bucks from Jan. 9 and are playing for playoff seeding in the Western Conference. So this game is more important to them. In a matchup of superstars, primarily James Harden vers. Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks are missing a key underrated cog with Malcolm Brogdon out with a foot injury. He would have been the best defender against Harden. The Bucks also lost guard Tony Snell to an ankle injury in their win against the Cavaliers this past Sunday.
03-25-19	Longwood +15 v. DePaul	Top	89-97	Win	100	16 h 55 m	Show
If you're going to lay this big of a number in a tournament, you better play at least decent defense. DePaul doesn't. The Blue Demons give up 75.5 points a game, which ranks 276th. Only once in their last 20 games have the Blue Demons won by a margin this big. DePaul is 11-26-3 (29.7 percent) following a victory. Reaching the quarterfinals of the College Basketball Invitational may not be a big deal for some teams, but it is for Longwood, a team from the Big South Conference. The Lancers opened the tournament rolling past Southern Mississippi, as 9 1/2-point home 'dogs. That was the 10th time in their last 11 tries the Lancers had covered in a non-conference matchup. DePaul is the home team here. Yet it should be noted that the Blue Demons won't be on their regular home court. It's being used to host a women's basketball tournament. So this game is being played at a much smaller gym that is the home of the DePaul women's volleyball team.
03-23-19	Murray State +5 v. Florida State	Top	62-90	Loss	-115	16 h 12 m	Show
On the surface, this spread should be higher, right? A good ACC team in Florida State taking on Murray State from the Ohio Valley Conference. But there is more than meets the eye here. Murray State is legitimate and on a roll with 12 straight wins. Racers guard Ja Morant may be the second-best player in college basketball in back of only Duke's Zion Williamson. The Racers didn't just beat but dominated a very strong Marquette squad, 83-64, on Thursday. The Racers are on a mission to showcase their talents and Morant's superstar game - 24.4 points, 10.2 assists and 50.4 percent shooting statistics on the season. Florida State had to endure a rugged ACC slate and reaching the conference tournament title game. So sure the Seminoles are battle tested, but the flip side is they also have a higher fatigue factor. That may have been played a part in their less-than-sterling 76-69 non-cover win against Vermont on Thursday. Vermont sank 16 of 32 shots from 3-point range. That could prove telling against the up-tempo gunning Racers. Florida State relies on its size and defense to beat opponents. The Seminoles don't have a Morant. Murray State, though, has a couple of big man pounders in KJ Williams and Darrell Coward to keep competitive on the boards. The Racers are 8-2 ATS, too, during their last 10 non-conference games. Florida State is 1-6 ATS the past three plus seasons under Leonard Hamilton when laying points in post-season tournament action.
03-22-19	Arizona State v. Buffalo -4.5	Top	74-91	Win	100	13 h 42 m	Show
Buffalo blasted Arizona, 89-68, in the first round of the NCAA Tournament last season. I easily can see the Bulls doing the same to a much worse Arizona State squad. The Bulls are the MAC champions. So it's easy to point out they are a mid-major, but Buffalo dominated that conference while the Pac-12 was way down this season. I don't see the Sun Devils being able to keep pace with the Bulls especially with point guard Remy Martin dealing with a groin injury. I'm sure Martin, the catalyst for the Sun Devils, will play but I doubt he will be 100 percent. The Bulls are riding a 12-game winning streak. They are the more rested team having last played on Saturday. ASU had to beat St. John's on Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio to reach this game. This marks the Sun Devils' third game in eight days - all in different time zones. Buffalo is the fifth-highest scoring team in the country at 84.9 points. That's more than seven points better than what Arizona averages. The Bulls certainly aren't going to lack motivation taking on a Pac-12 opponent especially with the added incentive of going against Bobby Hurley, the former coach of Buffalo. Bulls coach Nate Oats was Hurley's lead assistant and recruiting coordinator before replacing his departed mentor. Note, too, that Buffalo is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against nonconference opponents.
03-21-19	Florida v. Nevada -2	Top	70-61	Loss	-109	21 h 40 m	Show
Nevada has far more talent and experience than Florida. The Gators are lucky to have made the Tournament given that they have 15 losses. The Wolf Pack paid their dues last season. They reached the Sweet 16 and have all their key pieces back. I consider Eric Musselman one of the top coaches in the nation. The spread is lower than I thought. One reason for this could be Nevada getting upset, 65-56, as 10 1/2-point favorites against San Diego State in the semifinals Mountain West Conference Tournament. The Wolf Pack are much better than that. They were missing their second leading scorer and top rebounder, Jordan Caroline, in that game. Carolina is expected to play here. Nevada is 19-6-1 ATS following a loss.
03-20-19	Wizards -2 v. Bulls	Top	120-126	Loss	-113	18 h 9 m	Show
The youthful Bulls may not be fully focused for this home matchup as they just concluded three games on the West Coast with a 116-101 win against the Suns on Monday. Motivation shouldn't be a problem for the Wizards. They are in must-win mode trailing the Heat by 4 1/2 games for the final playoff spot in the East. The Wizards are a respectable 8-10 since trading Otto Porter to the Bulls for Jabari Parker and Bobby Portis. Porter has done well with the Bulls, but sat out Chicago's victory against Phoenix with a sore shoulder. Zach LaVine, the Bulls' best player, has been gutting things out with a thigh and knee injury. There are no guarantees Porter and LaVine play against the Wizards. Washington handled the Bulls, 134-125, at Chicago last month. The Wizards have covered seven of the past eight times when meeting a sub .500 opponent.
03-19-19	Dayton v. Colorado -4.5	Top	73-78	Win	100	28 h 48 m	Show
Unlike the NCAA Tournament, some teams aren't excited about getting to play in the NIT. Dayton is one such team. The Flyers finished their regular season in highly disappointing style losing, 64-55, as 4 1/2-point favorites against St. Louis in their opening game of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament. Indications are the Flyers are not excited about traveling to Boulder, Colo., for this matchup. Not helping matters for the Flyers is their leading scorer, Obi Toppin, is deaing with a knee injury. Contrary to Dayton, Colorado is excited about competing in this tournament. The Buffaloes are young and expect to return all of their main players for next season. They want to use this tournament to gain more big-game experience. The Buffaloes are 10-3 in their last 13 games. They also have covered eight of the last 10 times versus opponents with a winning record. This is what Colorado coach Tad Boyle was quoted as saying about his team and playing in the NIT: "We're playing well here down the stretch. There are a few teams that are leaking oil this time of year, but we're not one of them. I like the way we're playing and really the key for our guys is they are excited, they are going to embrace this. They did not want their season to end."
03-13-19	Jazz -7.5 v. Suns	Top	114-97	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
It happened on Sunday, but the Suns still could be celebrating their stunning 115-111 upset win of the Warriors. Phoenix was 17-point road 'dogs. It was the first time the Suns had defeated the Warriors in 19 games having lost 18 in a row to them. The Jazz have won the past four meetings against the Suns by an average of 24.4 points. They whipped Phoenix, 116-88, as 15-point home favories in the previous meeting on Feb. 6. But no way now do the Jazz take the Suns lightly. Utah is in stop-the-pain mode have losting three of four, including two in a row. Utah's defense has been there. But the Jazz's shooting has been off. They hit just 36.4 percent against the Thunder at home on Monday in losing, 98-89. That was the fewest points the Thunder had scored in 27 games. Unfortunately for the Jazz too many of their normally reliable scorers were cold in that game. Donovan Mitchell, who is approaching superstar status, Jae Crowder and Joe Ingles were a combined 15-for46 from the floor in that loss to Oklahoma City. Expect the Jazz to shoot much better against a Phoenix defense that ranks 28th. The Suns have yielded 116 or more points in 18 of its last 22 games. The Jazz are 15-5-1 ATS the past 21 times following a loss and have played better on the road lately covering four of their last five away matchups.
03-12-19	Blazers -2.5 v. Clippers	Top	125-104	Win	100	20 h 43 m	Show
There are reasons why Portland opened a road favorite against the Clippers. The Trail Blazers are the superior team holding a huge starting backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum and also have the best big man in Jusuf Nurkic. It's a strong spot, too, for Portland. The Trail Blazers last played on Saturday while the Clippers are in action for the third time in five days and are playing without rest. LA is in danger of letting down after consecutive impressive home victories versus the Thunder and Celtics. The Trail Blazers have been sharp on the road covering in six of their last seven away contests. Portland also is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings versus the Clippers, while covering in their last four visits against the Clippers.
03-11-19	San Diego +5 v. St. Mary's	Top	62-69	Loss	-109	9 h 18 m	Show
San Diego is playing well going 3-0 SU and ATS in the West Coast Conference Tournament. The Toreros enter this semifinal matchup with a lot of confidence having just destroyed BYU, 80-57, on Saturday. They are 8-3 ATS the past 11 times taking on foes with a winning record. St. Mary's enters the tournament off a disheartening loss to Gonzaga. That was nine days ago. So the Gaels are going to have some rust. Note this game is at neutral site Las Vegas. St. Mary's is 2-7 ATS the past nine times when playing at a neutral site.
03-10-19	Iowa v. Nebraska +1	Top	91-93	Win	100	11 h 25 m	Show
Nebraska plays much better defense at home and as bad as the Cornhuskers have been against the spread lately, Iowa has been worse. The Hawkeyes have failed to cover in their last seven games. Fran McCaffery is back coaching the Hawkeyes after being suspended the previous two games. But Iowa hasn't been good for the past three weeks. If it weren't for a home overtime victory against Indiana, the Hawkeyes would be riding a five-game losing streak instead of a three-game loss streak. The Cornhuskers have revenge for a 93-84 road loss to the Hawkeyes on Jan. 6. Nebraska surrenders 16.3 fewer points per game at home. This is Senior Day at Nebraska and I expect James Palmer and Glynn Watson to play well. This has been a home series with the host covering the last four times.
03-06-19	Louisiana Tech v. Florida Atlantic	Top	72-69	Loss	-108	17 h 22 m	Show
I don't understand this line. But I'll certainly take advantage of it. Louisiana Tech is great when playing at home as evidenced by a 15-1 mark. However, the Bulldogs are 3-10 on the road. They have lost their last eight road games. This includes a 69-61 loss to Florida Atlantic on Jan. 31. The Owls won that game despite shooting just 36 percent from the floor. Florida Atlantic outrebounded Louisiana Tech, 43-31. Louisiana Tech has lost and failed to cover its last two games, falling to Marshall, 90-79, as seven-point home favorites and losing, 83-76, as 1 1/2-point road favorites against Florida International this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are 7-16 ATS the past 23 times following a loss. Florida Atlantic should come in with a lot of energy and confidence. The Owls last played on Thursday when they defeated North Texas, 60-54, as eight-point road 'dogs pushing their record to 17-12. Kudos to first-year Florida Atlantic coach Dusty May as that victory ensured the Owls of their first winning season since 2010-11. The Owls have won and covered three of their last four games.
03-05-19	Utah State v. Colorado State +7	Top	100-96	Win	100	13 h 3 m	Show
Ambush time for Colorado State. The Rams have covered 11 of their last 15 Mountain West Conference matchups, including three of the last four. They draw Utah State off a huge home win from Saturday against Nevada in what was an intense, bitterly fought game. That victory moved the Aggies into first place in the Mountain West and puts them in a letdown spot here. The Rams have revenge motivation and are playing for playoff seeding in the Mountain West Conference Tournament.
03-04-19	Texas +8.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	51-70	Loss	-108	19 h 56 m	Show
Texas Tech and Kansas State are tied for the Big 12 Conference lead with 12-4 league marks. The Red Raiders are 24-5 overall, while Texas is 8-8 in the Big 12 and 16-13 overall. So record-wise this line looks right. But I see this matchup being much closer than what the oddsmaker anticipates. Texas Tech is 16-1 at home, but has a losing home point spread mark. The Longhorns are 4-10 in games decided by six points or less. Their eight conference defeats have been by a combined 30 points for an average loss of 3.7 points. The Big 12 is a tough conference. Texas is a likley NCAA Tournament team with victories against North Carolina, Purdue, Kansas and a 17-point win against Iowa State in its last game this past Saturday. But the Longhorns can't assume anything. So they will be playing hard, too. Note that the Longhorns steamrolled Iowa State despite not having leading scorer Kerwin Roach, who is suspended. It's a plus if Roach is reinstated for this game, but I'm not counting on that. The Longhorns have covered their last four road games. They also are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings against Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have won the past three in the series, including 68-62 on Jan. 12, but their average victory margin in these three matchups is four points.
03-03-19	Marshall +5 v. North Texas	Top	85-82	Win	100	6 h 8 m	Show
Revenge, much better current form and line value. Those three factors heavily line up in Marshall's favor here. The Thunder Herd lost 78-51 to North Texas on the road. That occurred on Feb. 7. The Mean Green haven't won since going 0-5 SU and ATS. They are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Marshall, by contrast, has started to play better winning its past two games. The Thundering Herd upset Louisiana Tech, 90-79, on the road in their last game this past Thursday. Jon Elmore showed why he's one of the best players in Conference USA by scoring 34 points for Marshall in that victory. Marshall is strong offensively averaging 79.9 points a game, which ranks 36th in the country. That's nine more points per game than North Texas scores per game. Defense is Marshall's weakness. North Texas, however, is struggling to score. The Mean Green are averaging a meager 54.4 points in their last five games, failing to reach the 60-point mark in any of their last five games.
03-02-19	Texas-Arlington -3 v. Troy State	Top	79-66	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Texas Arlington is 10-6 in the Sun Belt Conference. The Mavericks are in must-win mode trailing Texas State by two games for the top spot. The Mavericks host Texas State next Saturday in their final regular season game. Texas State is a small road favorite against South Alabama today in a game that tips off five hours later than this one. Texas Arlington beat Texas State in the first meeting this season. So the Mavericks should be going all out here in order to potentially set up a first-place showing matchup next Saturday. Troy is last in the Sun Belt at 4-11. The Trojans couldn't withstand the suspension of forward Jordon Varnado, their leading scorer and second-leading rebounder. Varnado averages 21.5 points a game. Troy's second-leading scorer, Alex Hicks, averages 12.5 points. The Trojans are 1-5 SU and ATS since losing Varnado. Troy hasn't been good in the Sun Belt for a while now going 3-12-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games. The Trojans have lost the past two times to the Mavericks, including 86-76 this past Jan. 4.
03-01-19	Blazers v. Raptors -5	Top	117-119	Loss	-109	19 h 23 m	Show
Kudos to Portland on a great road trip - so far. The Trail Blazers are 4-0 on their road swing following a 99-92 victory against the struggling Celtics on Wednesday. So you can't blame the Trail Blazers if they feel fat and happy right now. Now, though, Portland draws Toronto. The Raptors went 8-1 in February concluding the month with an impressive 118-95 home blowout victory against the Celtics on Tuesday. Toronto is 26-6 at home. The Raptors draw the Trail Blazers playing in their fifth road game in nine days. So the Trail Blazers have a fatigue factor working against them, which isn't helped by swingman Evan Turner and center Enes Kanter not available to play. Portland has lost in its last three visits to Toronto going 1-2 ATS with its losing margin being 11 points. The Raptors have added motivation for this nonconference matchup. They lost 128-122 to Portland on Dec. 14. Point guard Kyle Lowery missed that game.
02-26-19	Magic -6.5 v. Knicks	Top	103-108	Loss	-110	18 h 26 m	Show
The Knicks pleased Spike Lee by upsetting the Spurs on Sunday halting an 18-game home losing streak. But they didn't necessarily please New York management, which is angling for their team to get the No. 1 overall draft pick. I question the Knicks' motivation especially after putting a stop to the worst home losing streak in franchise history. New York has failed to cover the past five times after covering a spread. The Knicks also are 1-8 ATS the last nine times when playing on one day's rest. Orlando usually is in tank mode, too, at this stage of the season. Not this year, though. They are just one-half game behind Charlotte for the final playoff spot in the East. The Magic have achieved this by winning their past five road matchups, including knocking off the Raptors, 113-98, this past Sunday. That pushed the Magic's record to 8-2 in their last 10 games. Unlike the Knicks, the Magic are 7-0 ATS when playing on one day's rest. They have covered five of the last six times against the Knicks, including burying them by 26 points during their last visit to Madison Square Garden on Nov. 11. It's an added plus for the Magic if Knicks center DeAndre Jordan has to miss another game with an ankle injury.
02-25-19	76ers +1.5 v. Pelicans	Top	111-110	Win	100	22 h 17 m	Show
No Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis probably plays. Know this going in. But don't be intimidated by it. The 76ers have had several games to adjust to Embiid's absence. They still have other stars - Jimmy Butler and Ben Simmons - and won't lack for motivation coming off a 130-115 embarrassing home loss to Portland on Saturday. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS the past five times coming off a defeat. The Pelicans are not going to make the playoffs. Davis wants out, the team ranks 27th defensively, morale is shot and they don't have much of a home-court advantage anymore. New Orleans is a little fat and happy, too, off a 128-115 home win against the Lakers on Saturday in which Davis didn't play. Even when Davis suits up he doesn't play many minutes anymore because of his trade request issued last month. The Pelicans know Davis won't be with them next season so they don't use him that much. The Pelicans are 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. They are just 3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS in their past eight home contests even with that victory against the Lakers. The 76ers have become more respectable on the road winning and covering four of their last six away matchups. This includes a nine-point victory against Golden State.
02-24-19	Magic +9.5 v. Raptors	Top	113-98	Win	100	13 h 20 m	Show
Unlike the past few years, the Magic come out of All-Star break very live to make the playoffs. Orlando is playing well going 7-2 SU and ATS in its last nine games. The Raptors do not have a good history in this type of spot and have failed to cover in two previous meetings versus the Magic, winning 93-91 as seven-point road favorites on Nov. 20 and losing 116-87 as five-point road favorites on Dec. 28. Nikola Vucevic had 30 points and 19 rebounds in that Orlando victory. Vucevic gives the Magic the best big man on the floor. Toronto may not have its full intensity coming off an emotional, 120-117, home win against Kawhi Leonard's former team the Spurs this past Friday. The Raptors have failed to cover 11 of the last 16 times when meeting a foe with a sub .500 record. Toronto also is 10-20 ATS the last 30 times when favored. Orlando has covered in six of its past seven road contests.
02-22-19	Harvard -1.5 v. Brown	Top	79-88	Loss	-113	18 h 38 m	Show
Yale and Harvard are the class of the Ivy League. Harvard buried Brown, 68-47, as six-point home chalk on Feb. 2. So laying this short price on the road is more than fair. The Crimson have covered 71 percent of their last 33 Ivy League games. Brown has only covered 17 percent of its past 13 Ivy League contests. Harvard also covered 68 percent of its last 22 away matchups and is 5-1 ATS in its last six meetings versus Brown. Only once in their last eight games have the Crimson lost. That was against Cornell three games ago and came the day after the Crimson went three overtimes in a victory against Columbia.
02-21-19	Rockets -2.5 v. Lakers	Top	106-111	Loss	-109	20 h 11 m	Show
James Harden, Chris Paul and returning Clint Capela trump LeBron James. That's the bottom line here. The Rockets are back to full health. Paul is in shape and playing well again. Capela is expected to play after missing the last 15 games with a thumb injury. Harden is the MVP of the league scoring 30 or more points in 31 consecutive games. Houston is 21-10 in those games. While the Rockets are among the five best teams in the NBA, the Lakers may not even make the playoffs. They are 3-8 in their last 11 games. James has been back for five games since missing 17 games due to a groin injury. But Lonzo Ball remains out with an ankle injury. The Lakers learned one thing during James' absence - Luke Walton can't coach. Houston is 3-0 versus the Lakers this season after going 4-0 against LA last season. The Rockets also have covered in eight of their past 10 road games versus the Lakers.
02-20-19	Villanova -5.5 v. Georgetown	Top	73-85	Loss	-108	18 h 21 m	Show
I want Villanova off a rare loss. I also want to fade Georgtown now that they realistically are not going to get a bid to the NCAA Tournament unless it does extremely well in the Big East Conference Tournament. The Hoyas are 1-3 in their last four games and off a 90-75 loss to Seton Hall. Georgetown is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 Big East Conference games. The Hoyas also are 4-12-1 ATS during their past 17 home games versus opponents with a winning road mark. Star guard Phil Booth had a sub-par game against St. John's this past Sunday in a 71-65 road loss. The Wildcats blew an 11-point second half lead against the Red Storm. Jay Wright isn't taking that defeat lightly. Booth should help the Wildcats exploit St. John's youthful backdourt. Booth, the Hoyas' leading scorer at 18.3 points, didn't have a strong game in the first meeting between the two teams on Feb. 3. Yet the Wildcats still won, 77-65, covering as 11 1/2-point home favorites. Villanova has proven itself on the road covering 69 percent of its last 51 away matchups. The Wildcats also have covered the past four times versus Georgetown.
02-18-19	Illinois +11 v. Wisconsin	Top	58-64	Win	100	18 h 5 m	Show
Missing 17 of 21 shots from beyond the arc, Illinois lost 72-60 to Wisconsin on Jan. 23. Since then the Illini have gone 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS as their talented but inexperienced freshmen have matured and become more consistent. The Illini are beating good teams during this stretch, too, knocking off Michigan State, Maryland and Ohio State on the road. While Illinois is coming on, Wisconsin is slipping. The Badgers have lost consecutive games to Michigan and Michigan State. No shame in that, but the Badgers are showing signs of fatigue. They are not a deep team either. Wisconsin wins with great defense. Illinois ranks No. 13, though, in forcing turnovers. The Illini average four more points per game than Wisconsin and can keep this one close.
02-16-19	Tennessee v. Kentucky -3	Top	69-86	Win	100	21 h 58 m	Show
I understand the Volunteers have won 19 in a row and are 11-0 in the SEC. But I'm not sold on Tennessee, nor its coach, Rick Barnes. If the Vols win this game, I will be. But I don't see them beating Kentucky on the road. Kentucky's freshmen are starting to mesh. The Wildcats have covered eight of their last nine and are 19-7 ATS the past 26 times going against an opponent with a winning record. The Wildcats will be even more determined to win this game after suffering a 73-71 loss at home to LSU this past Tuesday that ended their 10-game win streak. The Wildcats let a nine-point second-half lead against LSU slip, losing on a tip-in at the buzzer. The Wildcats have the talented shooters to exploit Tennessee's lone real weak spot, their 3-point defense.
02-15-19	Northern Kentucky v. Wright State -1	Top	77-81	Win	100	21 h 44 m	Show
This Horizon League showdown is being shown on ESPNU. It's the biggest game of the season for Wright State and I believe the Raiders will be up for the challenge. The Raiders are home and playing their best ball winning seven of their last eight games while going 5-3 ATS. Wright State is 11-2 at home. Northern Kentucky has a losing record on the road and has been very bad point spread-wise away from home covering only three of its last 12 road matchups. The Norse are 1-8 ATS the past nine times when on the road versus an opponent with a winning home record. Northern Kentucky defeated Wright State, 68-64, as 4 1/2-point home favorites on Jan. 11 The Raiders managed to cover despite shooting much worse from the floor than Northern Kentucky, making just three of 15 3-point attempts and shooing seven fewer free throws. Wright State's bench has improved since that defeat. The Raiders also rank 49th in the country in free throw percentage compared to Northern Kentucky, which rates 321st in the nation in free throw accuracy.
02-14-19	Thunder -3.5 v. Pelicans	Top	122-131	Loss	-120	18 h 1 m	Show
A disinterested superstar who scored three points in his last game. A likely soon-to-be-gone head coach. 27th-rated defense. Low morale. Add it all up and you have the New Orleans Pelicans, losers of 10 of their last 14 games. I don't see the Pelicans regrouping for this matchup, their final one before the week-long All-Star break. Anthony Davis, who scored all of three points in 24 minutes during the Pelicans' excruiating painful-to-watch, 118-88, home loss to the Magic on Tuesday, wants out of New Orleans. It's a given the Pelicans are going to deal him. So Davis isn't putting out and the Pelicans are reducing his minutes not wanting to risk him getting injured. Of course this takes a toll on the Pelicans' chemistry. Alvin Gentry isn't going to get through this as the Pelicans are close to falling apart. A 30-point home loss to the 26-32 Magic doesn't bode well for New Orleans. Neither does a 99-90 road loss to the Grizzlies in their previous game. Oklahoma City is an elite team that is a sizzling 11-1 SU, 10-2 ATS. Russell Westbrook is going for his 11th consecutive triple-double and Paul George has been on fire, too, averaging 38.8 points in his last eight games. New Orleans' bottom-four defense isn't going to be able to contain them. The Thunder shouldn't be letting up either since they won't be playing again for another eight days. New Orleans hasn't had much of a home-court edge either losing six of its last seven home games while the Thunder have covered five of their last six away contests.
02-13-19	Bucks -3.5 v. Pacers	Top	106-97	Win	100	17 h 0 m	Show
Indiana lost its first four games after its leading scorer and best player, Victor Oladipo, was lost for the season with a knee injury. Since then the Pacers have rebounded to win their next six games. The teams they beat are the Heat, Pelicans, Lakers, Clippers, Cavaliers and Hornets. Of that bunch only the Clippers are above .500. I don't see the Pacers stepping up in class now that they have to play the Bucks, who have the best record in the NBA and are 13-2 in their last 15 games. The Bucks are "A" level. The Pacers are "C" level. So this point spread is too short in my view. I don't see the Bucks going into All-Star break with a loss. They should have all hands on deck, including superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. He played on Monday when the Bucks whipped the Bulls, 112-99, in Chicago. There are a number of impressive trends pointing in the Bucks' direction such as being 12-3-2 ATS in their last 17 road games, 16-5 ATS when playing on one day's rest and 18-6-2 ATS during their past 26 Eastern Conference games.
02-12-19	Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	108-107	Loss	-115	18 h 45 m	Show
This is the Spurs' final game before All-Star break. They won't play again for 10 days. So you know Gregg Popovich will pull out all the stops to prevent San Antonio from losing a season-high fifth straight game. Lack of defense has really hurt the Spurs on their current road swing. But so has the quality of opposition. San Antonio has faced the Jazz, Trail Blazers and Warriors during its past three games, all on the road. Memphis is 5-18 in its last 23 games, 8-15 ATS. The Grizzlies also are the lowest-scoring team in the league. Despite their losing streak, the Spurs still have covered 69 percent of their last 14 games following a defeat. Memphis is 7-17 ATS the last 24 times it has faced an above .500 opponent. The Grizzlies have won three of their last four. Those wins, however, came against the Knicks, Timberwolves and Pelicans. Those are three bad teams with a combined record of 61-108. The Grizzlies are a worse team, too, after trading Marc Gasol.
02-10-19	Magic v. Hawks +2.5	Top	124-108	Loss	-105	19 h 46 m	Show
Orlando is on Cloud 9 after upsetting the Bucks, 103-83, at Milwaukee Saturday night. Even with that great victory, the Magic are just 9-17 on the road this season and 5-9 ATS in their past 14 away contests. The Hawks are in a great spot to get revenge for a 122-103 home loss to the Magic from Jan. 21. Not only do the Hawks draw the Magic in an obvious letdown spot, but also Orlando will be in action for the third time in four days and playing without rest arriving in Atlanta in the early Sunday morning hours. It's the first time the Magic have to play consecutive games since Jan. 18-19. Atlanta is below-the-radar with some excellent young players - John Collins, Trae Young, Taurean Prince and Kevin Huerter. So the Hawks are not at a talent disadvantage against the Magic. The Hawks are a respectable 12-14 in their last 16 games.
02-09-19	St. Mary's +17 v. Gonzaga	Top	46-94	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
I recall St. Mary's upsetting Gonzaga, 74-71, as 7 1/2-point road 'dogs last season. But while I'm not saying the Gaels can pull a similar upset in Spokane this season, I do believe they can hang in and that this line is inflated based on Gonzaga winning 13 in a row with many of those victories occurring in blowout fashion. The Gaels haven't lost a game in regulation by more than six points since Nov. 21. The Bulldogs are the No. 1 scoring team in the nation. St. Mary's may be down from previous seasons, but the Gaels still are very good. They rank 21st in field goal percentage and surrender fewer than 67 points a game. Gaels' guard Jordan Ford leads the West Coast Conference in scoring at 22.1 points a game.
02-08-19	Bucks -7.5 v. Mavs	Top	122-107	Win	100	19 h 36 m	Show
Maybe the oddsmaker doesn't quite realize how strong the Bucks are and how weak the Mavericks have become. Because this opening line is way short in my view. It's Milwaukee, not Golden State, that has the best record in the NBA at 40-13. The Bucks rank either first, second or third in points per game, rebounding, field goal percentage and 3-pointers. They are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games. The teams met recently - Jan. 21 - with the Bucks winning, 116-106, at home. Since then, the Mavericks have traded four of their top five players. Gone are DeAndre Jordan, Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr. Dallas is left with Luka Doncic and a bunch of lottery-type players. The Bucks will have at least four of the five best players on the court in Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brodon and Eric Bledsoe. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle is left trying to sift out the garbage. It's going to take him a while to figure out his rotation and the Bucks are not the opponent to experiment on. This is a kill spot for the Bucks given how well they are playing, five consecutive victories all by double-digits, and how bad and vulnerable the Mavericks are now the day after the trade deadline.
02-07-19	Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State	Top	77-70	Win	100	21 h 33 m	Show
I'm usually attracted to the superior team in a pick or underdog spot. That's what we have here with Hawaii against Long Beach State. Hawaii is 4-3 in the Big West Conference. The Warriors are in must-win mode being 2 1/2 games out of first place. They are ranked 189th in the highly respected Ken Pom ratings. Long Beach State is 2-5 in the Big West with five consecutive losses. The 49ers are ranked 37 spots behind Hawaii by Ken Pom. The Warriors are surrendering 15 fewer points per game than the 49ers during the past five games. The two teams just met last Thursday and Hawaii was a 9 1/2-point home favorite. The Warriors shot 41.7 percent from the floor, missed 21 of 28 3-pointers and shot five fewer free throws yet still easily won, 74-57. So what has caused around a 10-point difference in the line? Well Hawaii is leaving the island following a 75-54 home loss to Santa Barbara as 3-point favorites, but that's not nearly worth that many points. The Warriors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games following three or more straight home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups versus a sub .500 opponent. Long Beach State is just 3-7 ATS in its past 10 games against foes with winning records.
02-05-19	Lakers -3 v. Pacers	Top	94-136	Loss	-115	11 h 44 m	Show
LeBron. That's the short answer as to why Lakers in this game. LeBron James is set to play in his second game back from injury after missing the Lakers' 115-101 road loss to the Warriors on Saturday. The Lakers are a fractured team right now. James can pull them through. LA has much tougher games on deck in this road trip meeting the Celtics and 76ers in its next two games. The Pacers carry a much higher fatigue rating than the Lakers. They just finished a four-game, six-day road swing that concluded with a 109-107 win against the Pelicans last night. That victory followed a win against the Heat on Saturday. Indiana was 0-4 since losing its leading scorer and top player, Victor Oladipo, with a knee injury for the season before those victories. Oladipo didn't play either when the teams met in the first meeting this season. James did and scored 38 points in the Lakers' 104-96 win.
02-02-19	Lakers v. Warriors -10.5	Top	101-115	Win	100	17 h 60 m	Show
No team can hang with the Warriors when Golden State is home and fully motivated. I see the Warriors playing with a great deal of intensity following a humbling nationally televised home defeat to the 76ers this past Thursday. That halted the Warriors' 11-game win streak and occurred right after Golden State had returned home following a 5-0 road sweep. It was a flat spot for the Warriors and the 76ers took advantage. Golden State has dominated this series defeating the Lakers in eight of the last nine meetings. However, the one loss during this stretch came on Christmas Day when the Lakers humiliated the Warriors, 127-101. That defeat still bothers the Warriors, who should be at full strength to face the Lakers. LA has LeBron James back, but could have a serious problem at point guard with Lonzo Ball out and Rajon Rondo questionable with an ankle injury. James had missed the previous 17 games with a groin injury until returning in the Lakers' last game, a 123-120 overtime win versus the Clippers on Thursday. James had to log 40 minutes in that victory and said his groin felt sore after the game. So if the Lakers fall way behind they may limit James' minutes not wanting to risk him getting reinjured. The Lakers showed they aren't much without James going 6-11 in his absence. The Lakers have failed to cover in nine of their last 12 visits to Oracle Arena.
02-01-19	Grizzlies v. Hornets -4.5	Top	92-100	Win	100	19 h 38 m	Show
The Hornets are the epitome of a good home team, bad road club. Charlotte is 17-8 at home, but just the opposite - 7-18 - in its away matchups. One of the Hornets' few road victories came just nine days ago when they defeated the Grizzlies, 118-107. It was the seventh time in the past eight meetings that Charlotte has covered against Memphis. I'm expecting that trend to continue today. Memphis has hoisted the white flag with losses in 16 of its last 18 games, including a 1-10 record in its last 11 games. The Grizzlies, to their credit, have been competitive in their last four games losing by three to the Kings at home, upsetting the Pacers at home, losing by just three to the Nuggets on the road and falling to the Timberwolves by two in overtime this past Wednesday at home. The last two defeats were especially brutal for the Grizzlies as they blew a 25-point lead against the Nuggets and were knocked off by the Timberwolves when Karl-Anthony Towns hit a 20-footer at the buzzer off an offensive rebound to give Minnesota the victory. I don't see the Grizzlies, with their low morale and trade rumors swirling about their two best players - Marc Gasol and Mike Conley - getting up a third straight time even though they do have a revenge factor. The game is much more important for the Hornets, who currently hold the final playoff spots in the East. Charlotte is off a bad 126-94 road loss to the Celtics on Wednesday. This is the first game of a three-game homestand. Charlotte plays with a lot more confidence at home. The Hornets destroyed the Grizzlies, 140-79, at home last season when Memphis had a better team. I see this opening number clearly being short.
01-29-19	Bucks -6 v. Pistons	Top	115-105	Win	100	21 h 17 m	Show
The Bucks opened their current five-game road trip with a 118-112 loss to the Thunder on Sunday. Milwaukee has yet to lose two consecutive games all season. The Bucks are 12-2 ATS the past 14 times following a defeat. The Bucks have won their next game after a loss by an average of 14.8 points. The Pistons are 2-3 in their last five games, averaging just 97 points during this span. The Bucks rank No. 2 in the NBA in scoring at 117.3. Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond are having tremendous years for Detroit. But the Pistons are getting little from the rest of the players. They have a weak bench made weaker if backup veteran point guard Ish Smith has to miss a fifth straight game due to a groin injury. Detroit is just 1-6-1 ATS the past eight times it has stepped up to face an opponent with a win percentage above .600. The Bucks have owned the Pistons this season winning all three meetings with the average victory margin being 16 points. Big man Brook Lopez has come on making the Bucks extremely dangerous. Lopez's hot shooting from outside has helped free things up for superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. Unlike the Pistons, the Bucks have a deep bench. Lopez scored 25 points - hitting seven 3-pointers - when the teams last met on New Year's Day with the Bucks winning, 121-98, at home.
01-29-19	Tennessee v. South Carolina +9	Top	92-70	Loss	-110	17 h 3 m	Show
Tennessee is finding out that being the top-ranked college basketball team in the country carries a huge target. The Volunteers have had some narrow escapes in two of their last three games beating Alabama by just three points as 13-point home favorites and getting past Vanderbilt in overtime as a nine-point road favorite. I don't see the Volunteers being quite so fortunate on the road against a rugged, well-coached South Carolina squad that has been peaking since SEC play began going 5-1. Going back to last season, the Gamecocks are 11-2-1 ATS during their past 14 SEC contests. This is Tennessee's fourth SEC road game. The Volunteers have trailed in all three of their league road matchups. South Carolina is good at forcing turnovers and rebounding. The Gamecocks will be fired-up, too, under fiery Frank Martin. Tennessee is coming off its third-worst turnover game of the season committing 16 in their last game against West Virginia. South Carolina has covered in four of its last five games versus Tennessee.
01-25-19	Knicks +10 v. Nets	Top	99-109	Push	0	10 h 53 m	Show
The Nets have been a great below-the-radar story winning 18 of their last 23 games to become a solid playoff contender. The Nets have accomplished this with a deep rotation not having any superstars. But now the Nets are laying their biggest number of the season. They are doing this against a long-time division and neighbor rival and they are doing it when they could be without several players to their rotation, one of whom is vitally important. Star reserve Spencer Dinwiddie - who is averaging 17.2 points - is not likely to play because of a thumb injury, Jared Dudley is out with a hamstring injury and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is questionable with a shoulder injury. Dinwiddie scored 25 points when the teams last met on Dec. 8. The Nets beat the Knicks, 112-104, at Madison Square Garden. Despite their turnaround season, the Nets are averaging an NBA-worst 14,258 fans per game. Many of those fans for tonight's game will be Knicks fans. There is a pride element in the NBA. The Knicks upset the Bucks last month. The Knicks will be up for this game. They have covered six of the last seven in the series. The Nets are not a team to lay big points with as 14 of their last 18 victories have been by single digits. Brooklyn has won three of its last four games by an average of three points with one coming in overtime.
01-24-19	Warriors v. Wizards +10.5	Top	126-118	Win	100	11 h 32 m	Show
Just like last season, the Wizards are playing much better without John Wall. How well? They are 8-3 ATS since losing Wall for the season. The Wizards are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. Included among their victories during this current home span are wins against the Bucks by seven and against the 76ers by 17. Milwaukee has a better record than Golden State. The Wizards' only home defeat during this span came in overtime to the Raptors. This is a rare nationally televised (TNT) game for Washington. The Warriors have a more challenging game on deck playing at the Celtics on Saturday. So the Wizards certainly should be the more motivated team.
01-23-19	Nuggets v. Jazz -3	Top	108-114	Win	100	21 h 59 m	Show
Going up against the Jazz in Salt Lake City usually isn't a pleasant experience. It has been especially tough for the Nuggets. Denver has lost seven road games in a row to Utah with the average loss being 14 points. Denver enters this matchup a bit fat and happy following two blowout home victories. Those wins, though, occurred against the Bulls and Cavaliers. Utah, by contrast, is in an angry mood. The Jazz lost 109-104 at home to Portland in their last game this past Monday. The Jazz had won six consecutive games prior to that. Utah is 9-1-1 ATS following a loss. Denver is 2-7 ATS in its past nine road games. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are having exceptional months for the Jazz. Mitchell is averaging 29.8 points in his last nine games. Gobert has pulled down at least 13 rebounds in his last eight games. Gobert could be the best rim protector in the Western Conference and can bother Nikola Jokic. The Jazz's banged-up backcourt is in better shape now with Ricky Rubio back from a hamstring injury that had sidelined him for six games. Rubio got some of the rust off in the Jazz's loss to the Trail Blazers, which was his first game back.
01-22-19	Duke v. Pittsburgh +13	Top	79-64	Loss	-105	19 h 25 m	Show
Duke has a Dream Team of freshmen with RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish. But Pittsburgh also has some very good first-year players with Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowens and Au'Diese Toney. Duke is coming off a huge marquee home victory against Virginia this past Saturday. Pittsburgh is treating this as its biggest game of the season. The matchup has been sold out for weeks. Jeff Capel is a big reason why the Panthers are sky-high for this matchup. Capel played four seasons for Mike Krzyzewski and then coached under him for seven years while probably being Duke's top recruiter. Capel was named Pittsburgh's head coach last March. This is the first meeting between Capel and Krzyzewski. Capel knows the Blue Devils better than any opponent. He knows Duke's tendencies and has intimate knowledge of the plays the Blue Devils run. Duke is likely to be missing point guard Tre Jones, who was leading the Blue Devils in assists and was their fourth-leading scorer. He suffered a shoulder injury last week and is not expected to play. The Panthers have covered 76 percent of their lined games under Capel. Pitt is 9-3 ATS in its home games. The Panthers have a strong history of covering spreads versus elite competition going 9-2-1 ATS the past 12 times facing opponents with an above .600 winning percentage. I expect this game to be close throughout. But if Duke does build a double-digit lead the backdoor should be open for Pittsburgh because Capel and Krzyzewski are close friends. Krzyzewski would not want to embarrass Capel especially on Capel's home-court.
01-19-19	Heat -2.5 v. Bulls	Top	117-103	Win	100	17 h 58 m	Show
Miami is 0-2 on its current four-game road trip. The Heat meet the Bulls here before concluding their road swing against the revenge-minded Celtics on Monday. This is the spot for the Heat to make sure they don't go 0-4 on this trip. Chicago is 0-9 in its last nine games. The Bulls just completed an embarrassing 0-5 road trip with a 30-point loss to the Nuggets this past Thursday. The Bulls come back home for the first time in nearly two weeks at low ebb and suffering a key below-the-radar injury. Chicago rookie forward Wendell Carter Jr. suffered a thumb injury this week that is going to sideline him two-to-three months. The 6-foot-10 Carter was coming on averaging 10.3 rebounds and 7 rebounds per game. More important, he gave the Bulls their only physical presence in the paint. His toughness is going to be missed especially against a rugged, defensive-minded team such as Miami. The Heat surrender the fourth-fewest points in the league. The Bulls are last in scoring. Miami lost 98-93 to the Pistons Friday night. The Heat made 5-of-19 free throws (26.3 percent) in that game setting a franchise-record for worst free throw shooting in a game with a minimum of 15 attempts. Miami isn't a good free throw shooting team mainly because of Hassan Whiteside, the worst free throw shooter in the league. But missing 19 of 24 free throws is absurd. The Heat also didn't have Josh Richardson, their leading scorer, in their loss to the Pistons. Richardson missed the game due to illness. It's obviously a plus if he plays. But even if he doesn't I like the Heat. Their Friday starting group of Whiteside, James Johnson Rodney McGruder, Justise Winslow and Tyler Johnson had only played two minutes together all season. Now they would get to start a second straight game within 24 hours. The Bulls lost to the Heat as four-point home underdogs, 103-96, when the teams met on Nov. 23. The Heat didn't have starting point guard Goran Dragic for that game either. Chicago has lost its last four games at United Center. Three of those losses were by 17 points to the Nets, 28 to the Magic and 25 to the Timberwolves.
01-18-19	Pelicans v. Blazers -2.5	Top	112-128	Win	100	22 h 39 m	Show
Both matchup-wise and situationally the Trail Blazers hold key edges. Portland plays better defense than the Pelicans, who rank 27th in scoring defense, and also is the stronger rebounding team ranking No. 3 in the category. The Trail Blazers are playing well, too, winning seven of their last 10. Anthony Davis is an absolute monster up front, but Portland big man Josuf Nurkic is playing the best ball of his career coming off a triple/double and the Trail Blazers hold a backcourt edge with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. As for the spot, Portland has a strong home-court. The Trail Blazers have won 19 of their 26 home games this season covering 62 percent. New Orleans is a bad road club losing 18 of its 24 away matchups while going 9-14 (39%) ATS in those games. This also is the Pelicans' fourth road game in seven days. Being bad on the road and weak defensively is a tough combination for the Pelicans to overcome. The Trail Blazers have defeated the Pelicans in 13 of the last 15 regular-season games, including 132-119 at home on Nov. 1 in the lone meeting between the teams this season. Davis, though, did not play in that game. Don't look for the Trail Blazers to take the Pelicans lightly, however. Portland still has bitter memories of the Pelicans sweeping the Trail Blazers in the first round of the playoffs last season.
01-16-19	Spurs +1 v. Mavs	Top	105-101	Win	100	19 h 44 m	Show
Gregg Popovich. That's the short answer as to why I like the Spurs here. San Antonio is in circle-the-wagons mentality having lost three of their last four games, including an embarrassing 108-93 loss to the Hornets at home on Monday. I trust Popovich to have his team fired-up. Dallas is tough at home. But the Mavericks are not as good as San Antonio and they have lost 14 of their last 19 games. The Spurs have been excellent in this situation covering 11 of the last 15 times when playing on one day's rest. There is a good chance the Spurs get back Rudy Gay. He has missed the last five games with a sprained wrist. It's an added bonus, too, if the Spurs get back key reserve Marco Belinelli, who suffered a knee injury this past Saturday and is day-to-day.
01-14-19	Grizzlies v. Rockets -6	Top	94-112	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
The Rockets average 10 more points per game than the struggling Grizzlies and are in a kill spot returning home after blowing a 12-point lead against the Magic while suffering a 116-109 road upset loss to the Magic Sunday. Houston is 11-1 SU, 10-1-1 ATS in its last 12 home games, including defeating the Grizzlies, 113-101, on Dec. 31. The Rockets got too lax against the Magic and it cost them. Expect a much stronger effort and focus from the Rockets. Motivation, not talent, is the key for the Rockets against this opponent. And, now, Houston should have that. Based on talent, the Rockets should bury Memphis, which is 7-18 in its last 25 games and 1-7 in its last eight. The Grizzlies have lost by seven points or more in six of their past seven defeats. The Grizzlies are playing short-handed, too, down three of their rotation players with Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks and Chandler Parsons all injured. The Rockets are playing without rest, but the Grizzlies are 2-8 ATS when playing on one day rest.
01-13-19	Eagles v. Saints -8	Top	14-20	Loss	-105	54 h 29 m	Show
No the Saints aren't blowing out the Eagles by 41 points like they did at home in Week 11. Philadelphia's secondary is in better physical shape and Nick Foles has replaced ailing Carson Wentz at quarterback. But this isn't enough to keep the Eagles within a touchdown of the Saints. New Orleans is a level higher this season than the Eagles and playing inside their dome stadium where Drew Brees threw 22 touchdown passes with just one interception. The Eagles struggled against Mitch Trubisky on grass last week surviving only because of Cody Parkey's bad luck on his final field goal attempt. Brees on a fast track with Alvin Karma, Michael Thomas and Mark Ingram is too much offense for the Eagles. Karma and Ingram both are far superior to any of the Eagles running backs. Thomas is the best wide receiver on the field. The Eagles carry a fatigue rating playing in their third straight road matchup while the Saints are rested. Offensive mastermind Sean Payton is dangerous with extra prep time. The Eagles have failed to cover nine the last 13 times they have played on carpet. Foles may be the top backup quarterback in the league. But if he were a starter he would rank among the bottom half. Foles has started the past four games. He has an eight-to-five TD-to-interception ratio during this time. The Saints are much improved defensively. During Weeks 10 through 15 - when they were competing hard for playoff seeding - the Saints gave up 12.3 points per game. No team scored more than 17 points on them during this time. You need a balanced offense and ball-control to beat the Saints inside the Louisiana Superdome. The Eagles rank 28th rushing. New Orleans has the No. 2 run defense. Credit to the Eagles for getting this far. But their journey to repeat as Super Bowl champions ends here.
01-12-19	Colts +5 v. Chiefs	Top	13-31	Loss	-105	121 h 48 m	Show
Andy Reid is a likely Hall of Fame coach. But when it comes to the playoffs he is a Hall of Fame chump. Reid's team have lost eight of their last nine playoff games. This includes a 1-4 postseason mark with the Chiefs. The Titans upset the Chiefs as 8 1/2-point road 'dogs last season in the Chiefs' first playoff game. These Colts are far better than that Tennessee team. The Chiefs went just 3-3 down the stretch going 1-4-1 ATS with their lone cover coming against the Raiders. Indianapolis is 10-1 in its last 11 games. The Colts' defense has been far better than perceived. So has their offensive line, which gave up the fewest sacks in the league. Marlon Mack has emerged as a running back threat. He's better than any of Kansas City's running backs with Kareem Hunt gone. Patrick Mahomes had a great season. But so did Andrew Luck, who threw the second-most TD passes on the season in back of only Mahomes. Luck has playoff experience, something Mahomes lacks. Kansas City's defense has played better at home. But the Colts hold a defensive edge. They've held five of their last six foes to 21 points or fewer. The Chiefs defense surrendered the second-most points per game and second most-yards per game. The Colts have become a physical unit that can play ball control. That's the way to beat the Chiefs.
01-11-19	Bucks v. Wizards +7	Top	106-113	Win	100	17 h 55 m	Show
Sometimes facts lead to misperceptions. There are two examples of this in the Bucks-Wizards Friday matchup. The Bucks have the best record in the NBA. John Wall is a great player being a five-time All-Star. Both sentences are facts. However ... there is more than meets the eye in both statements. Knowing them should help lead to a profitable investment by backing the Wizards. The Bucks deserve huge kudos for compiling the top winning percentage in the league through 40 games. But the Bucks have put together their outstanding record mainly at home. They are 10-7 on the road, 8-8 ATS. So spread-wise, Milwaukee is merely an average away club. The Bucks also are in a flat spot after a huge nationally televised road win against the Rockets and James Harden on Wednesday. Proving themselves on national TV is a big deal to the small market Bucks. This game is far from the madding crowd. It's a low-key affair against a 17-25 Washington team that is minus its best player, Wall. Guess what, though? You can make a strong case Washington is better team-wise without Wall. Remember when Wall was injured last season? The Wizards proceeded to play their best ball winning 11 of 14 games. That streak pushed them into the playoffs. It could happen again this season. The Wizards are 4-3 and 5-2 ATS since Wall was lost for the season. There is more to the Wizards than Wall. Otto Porter Jr. has gotten the rust off since returning from a quad injury. Bradley Beal is a top-scoring backcourt threat. Trevor Ariza is an underrated two-way pro. Wall's injury has also brought more prominence to unsung guard Tomas Satoransky and center Thomas Bryant. Washington has won and covered each of its last three home games. The Wizards are below-the-radar and should be highly motivated to prove themselves in this spot. Please note that since I released this game late Thursday night, the line has dropped quite a bit as word is out that Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful and Eric Bledsoe is questionable. I would not make this a max unit wager at the current number. However, the handicap still holds. The Wizards are very live here to beat the Bucks straight-up if Milwaukee doesn't have Antetokounmpo.
01-08-19	Texas A&M v. Kentucky -12.5	Top	74-85	Loss	-108	17 h 24 m	Show
Kentucky is in a kill position mood after getting upset, 77-75, as five-point road favorites against Alabama this past Saturday in its SEC opener. Wildcats coach John Calipari is putting a lot of emphasis on this matchup after that frustrating loss. The Wildcats are unbeaten at home and have won 79 percent of their games under Calipari following a loss, a span of 58 games. Texas A&M is not very good this season. That has become clear in the Aggies' last two games, both home losses. The Aggies lost 73-71 to Arkansas and before that fell to Texas Southern, 88-73, as 16 1/2-point favorites. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games versus a foe with a losing road record.
01-07-19	Alabama v. Clemson +5.5	Top	16-44	Win	100	115 h 3 m	Show
Clemson isn't getting the respect it deserves from oddsmakers. The Tigers are every bit as good - if not better - than Alabama. Yes, the SEC is a better football conference than the ACC. No argument there. But I will argue the Tigers passed a tough schedule with flying colors beating 10 Bowl teams, eight of them by 20 or more points. Clemson is every bit as dominating as Alabama ranking fourth in points scored while giving up the fewest points per game in the nation. The Tigers have proven themselves huge money-winners in the postseason, too, covering eight of their last nine bowl games. Alabama's defense showed some vulnerability against Oklahoma. True, the Sooners have a great offense. But so does Clemson. I like Tigers QB Trevor Lawrence much more than Kelly Bryant. The Tide defeated Clemson, 24-6, in the Sugar Bowl last season when Bryant was behind center. This time around it will be much different.
01-06-19	Chargers +3 v. Ravens	Top	23-17	Win	100	39 h 22 m	Show
The Chargers are that rare team that plays better on the road than at home. The reason for this is they really don't have a home-field advantage playing at sparsely populated StubHub Center in Southern California. The Chargers are 8-0, though, in games outside of Southern California. They have won in five different time zones and won't be intimidated here. The forecast for Sunday in Baltimore is sunny with temperatures in the 40s with around a 10-12 mph wind. So it's not like the Chargers are going into frigid conditions. Baltimore dominated the Chargers, 22-10, on the road just two weeks ago. Until that loss, the Chargers were in the argument for best team in the league. So maybe they needed a loss like that to sharpen them up and energize their focus. There is no secret to the Ravens. They are going to pound the ball, play for field position and rely on their excellent defense. The Chargers won't be ambushed again by the Ravens. Baltimore beat the Chargers after LA had knocked off the Chiefs the previous week on the road. So it wasn't a great spot for the Chargers. I respect the Ravens. Their defense is better than the Chargers. John Harbaugh is an above average coach, while Anthony Lynn is untested in playoff games. But I believe the Chargers are the better all-around team. Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen give the Chargers the best skill position players. The Chargers also get back big-play tight end Hunter Henry for the first time this season. They also have change-of-pace Austin Ekeler back. He missed the first game against the Ravens. Ekeler is a key because he's good pass-catching back and can hurt the Ravens via screen passes, which would slow down the Ravens' pass rush. The Chargers know what's coming. They are going to be prepared for Baltimore's ground attack by loading up the box. Lamar Jackson is an outstanding running QB, but he's not a good downfield passer.
01-04-19	Wizards v. Heat -6.5	Top	109-115	Loss	-109	19 h 18 m	Show
Quietly Miami has been on a monster point spread run covering 13 of its last 16 games. Look for the Heat to cover another game as this matchup against the Wizards sets up well for them. Washington has been terrible on the road lately losing and failing to cover its past seven away matchups. The Wizards have lost by at least seven points in each of their past seven road defeats. This includes lopsided losses to teams much worse than the Heat, including falling to the Pistons by 16 points and 15 points to the Cavaliers. The Heat should dominate the paint against the Wizards, who are a weak rebounding team and rank second-to-last in scoring defense. The Wizards are minus John Wall and thin up front with Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris out. This has drained Washington's bench. The Heat, though, just got Dion Waiters back from injury boosting their rotation. The Wizards are heavily reliant on Bradley Beal with Wall out. Miami ranks third in defensive field goal percentage and give up the fifth-fewest points per game in the league.
01-02-19	Boise State -3.5 v. Wyoming	Top	69-55	Win	100	14 h 48 m	Show
Wyoming edged Boise State, 79-78, in overtime last season when it hosted them. Boise State got some revenge when it beat the Cowboys, 95-87, at home in the final regular season game last season. Now the Broncos have a great opportunity to get road revenge as the Cowboys have a cluster injury problem in their backcourt. Among Boise State's banged-up players are Hunter Maldanado and Jake Hendricks, both of whom average double figures in scoring. Madanado is out with a back injury, while Hendricks is deaing with a knee injury. The Cowboys have been one of the worst ATS teams in the nation covering only two of their first 12 lined games. Long-term, the Cowboys are 7-18-1 ATS.
01-02-19	Heat -6 v. Cavs	Top	117-92	Win	100	20 h 54 m	Show
Just two games ago, Miami hosted Cleveland. Final score: Heat 118, Cavaliers 94. While I don't expect the Heat to bury the Cavaliers on the road by that much in this short turnaround, I do expect them to cover this spread. The Cavaliers have lost eight of their last nine games, including the past six. They have failed to reach 100 points in five of their last seven games. The Heat rank third in defensvie field goal percentage and seventh in fewest points allowed. Miami is on a nice point spread run covering 12 of its last 15 games. The Heat are 8-1 ATS during their past nine road matchups. The Heat, though, shouldn't lack motivation or being overconfident having lost their last game. That was at home to Minnesota, 113-104, this past Sunday. It was the most points Miami had allowed in its last 15 games. Cleveland is the third-lowest scoring team in the NBA. The Cavaliers are playing at home for the first time in more than a week having concluded a three-game road trip this past Saturday. They could be rusty and unfocused after had a long holiday break following their last game. The Cavaliers are 3-7 ATS on three or more days rest. The Cavaliers have permitted 110 or more points in five of their last six games.
01-01-19	Washington v. Ohio State -6	Top	23-28	Loss	-110	20 h 22 m	Show
I want Ohio State going for me in Urban Meyer's final game as Buckeyes coach and the price isn't too high to get it. The Pac 12 is down this season. That's reflected in the bowls. Washington is one-dimensional relying on a strong defense. But Ohio State has a great offense ranking No. 2 in the nation in yards gained and seventh in points. The Buckeyes average 17 points more per game than the Huskies and play in the stronger conference in my view. If the Huskies fall behind early they are in big trouble because they lack an explosive offense. When motivated the Buckeyes can beat any team with the exception of Alabama and Clemson. Washington isn't close to being in that class. The Huskies lost to Auburn, Oregon and California. Ohio State displayed its power by burying Michigan, 62-39, in its last game. I see a class difference here. Throw in the huge motivating factor to get Meyer a victory in his finale and I'll lay the points.
12-31-18	Virginia Tech v. Cincinnati -6.5	Top	31-35	Loss	-110	14 h 5 m	Show
This is not a very good Virginia Tech team. The Hokies just were able to sneak into a bowl game. I find Cincinnati to not only be the superior team, but the more motivated one. The Bearcats surrendered 152 fewer yards per game than the Hokies. Cincinnati gave up fewer than 17 points a game, while Virginia Tech allowed nearly 32 points per game. The Hokies can be run on and passed on yielding more than 220 yards both ways. Cincinnati has the skill position talent to exploit Virginia Tech's vulnerable defense with dual threat quarterback Desmond Ridder and running back Michael Warren II. The Bearcats also have the best pass rusher in the game in Cortez Broughton and an excellent punter, James Smith. When Virginia Tech loses it is not by a close count. All of the Hokies' six defeats came by 10 or more points.
12-30-18	Kings v. Lakers +1.5	Top	114-121	Win	100	22 h 51 m	Show
LeBron James isn't likely to play because of a groin injury suffered on Christmas Day. But the Lakers are going to go all out here after losing their first two games without James. The first game the Lakers played without James was this past Thursday against the Kings on the road. The Lakers built a 15-point lead with 6:44 left in the game. The Kings came all the way back to win, 117-116, with Bogdan Bogdanovic sinking a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give Sacramento the victory. Stunned by that loss, the Lakers were buried the next day by the Clippers. Now the Lakers have had a full day to regroup. LA doesn't lack talent without James. They have Brandom Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart and Kevin Kuzma. The Kings are an improved team, but their young core isn't as talented as the Lakers. The Lakers are home, highly motivated and getting points against a team they are least the equal of without James.
12-30-18	Dolphins v. Bills -3	Top	17-42	Win	100	140 h 13 m	Show
The Dolphins have lost 11 of their last 12 road games. They are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in their past six away matchups. The Dolphins are not going to the playoffs and likely will have a new coach and management team in place next season. The warm-weathered Dolphins have no interest in traveling to Buffalo where the forecast is for temperatures in the 20's with wind and a 30 percent chance of snow. That's the situational aspect. The fundamental matchup is the Bills have the superior defense and a far more mobile quarterback. Miami ranks third-from-the-bottom in both yards allowed and fewest yards gained. Ryan Tanneheill is a mediocre quarterback, who is even less effective because of a sore ankle. He has been sacked 20 times in the last five games. Buffalo ranks No. 1 in pass defense and also gives up the second-fewest yards in the league. The Bills' defense is far more respectable than Miami's. Josh Allen provides a spark for the Bills on offense. He's already one of the best running quarterbacks having rushed for 100 yards twice this season. The Bills outgained the Dolphins, 415-175, when the teams met in Week 13. The Dolphins won, though, 21-17. The Bills should have taken a late lead but Charles Clay dropped a throw in the end zone with 53 seconds left.
12-28-18	Iowa State +3 v. Washington State	Top	26-28	Win	100	80 h 16 m	Show
There are many reasons to like Iowa State against Washington State especially when the wrong team is favored. Iowa State played in the tougher conference and faced a tougher schedule. The Pac-12 was extremely weak this year. Washington State is a one-dimensional passing team. This is a reflection on its coach, Mike Leach. Iowa State is used to facing passing teams being in the Big 12. The Cyclones have a solid defense. They held West Virginia and Baylor to 14 points each. If the Cyclones can stop Will Grier like they did, they can slow down Gardner Minshew. I find Leach to be an overrated coach. I base much of this opinion on his being 1-7 ATS in his last eight bowl games. The long layoff from the end of the regular season to the bowl game is a real negative for Washington State, throwing off its timing in the passing game. The Cougars are averaging just 16.3 points during their past three bowl games. Washington State was hoping to play in the Rose Bowl. The Cougars had to settle for this minor Alamo Bowl game after losing 28-15 at home to long-time Pac 12 rival Washington. So the Cougars may not be fully motivated. Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy proved himself this season with a 16-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio in eight games. He has a pair of tremendous skill position weapons in running back David Montgomery and wide receiver Hakeem Butler. I also like Iowa State coach Matt Campbell. His Cyclones have covered 69 percent of the time in the 36 past instances when they were underdogs of three points or higher.
12-27-18	Duke +3.5 v. Temple	Top	56-27	Win	100	23 h 39 m	Show
Care to lay points with an 8-4 American Athletic Conference school against an Atlantic Coast Conference opponent, who owns victories this season against bowl teams Army, Northwestern, Baylor, Georgia Tech and Miami? I sure don't. That's one reason I'm taking the points with Duke against Temple in the Independence Bowl. Please note this game goes early Thursday. The Blue Devils are going for their third straight bowl win. They have a tremendous bowl and underdog coach in David Cutcliffe, whose teams have covered 60 percent of the time the past 80 times they have been underdogs. Cutcliffe's teams are 8-2 ATS, too, in bowl games. Temple, by contrast, has a messed-up coaching situation. Ed Foley will be coaching just his second game as Owls head coach Geoff Collins left for Georgia Tech. The Owls' biggest wins were against Maryland, which finished with a losing record in the down Big Ten, and Houston. The Cougars just got blasted, 70-14, by Army in the Armed Forces Bowl. It's clear Duke has played a far tougher schedule. Blue Devils quarterback Daniel Jones is a pro prospect. Wrong team favored in my view.
12-26-18	Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5	Top	34-10	Loss	-100	29 h 14 m	Show
Minnesota ranks 74th in run defense. The Gophers give up 5.2 yards per run, second-worst among all bowl team. And these numbers include the Gophers having their best defensive player, senior linebacker Blake Cashman, who is sitting out this game in preparation for the NFL draft. Cashman was in on 104 tackles. If you can't stop the run, you can't beat Georgia Tech with its unique triple-option attack. The Yellow Jackets are the No. 1 rushing team in the country averaging 335 yards on the ground. Minnesota's defense isn't that good to begin with and now facing Georgia Tech and without Cashman it is in real trouble. The Yellow Jackets have an underrated defense ranking 45th in total yards. The Gophers were 89th in yards gained. The topper is the Yellow Jackets will be highly motivated to bury the Gophers as a sendoff to their coach, Paul Johnson. He is retiring after this game.
12-25-18	76ers v. Celtics -4	Top	114-121	Win	100	18 h 50 m	Show
Strong at home, bad on the road particularly in Boston. That's the 76ers, who are 16-3 at home, but 6-9 on the road. Philadelphia has failed to cover during its last four visits to Boston, including getting buried, 105-87, by the Celtics in the season opener at TD Garden. That was Boston's 10th straight home win against Philadelphia. The Celtics have the deeper bench and are inside the mentally fragile 76ers' heads having defeated them in 13 of the last 15 regular season meetings. It's not just the Celtics. The 76ers have been blown out on the road by other quality teams losing by 27 to the Spurs, by 11 and 17 to the Raptors and by 15 to the Bucks. They even were destroyed by the Nets, losing by 25. Boston is coming off an impressive 119-103 home win against Charlotte on Sunday, a much-needed win that snapped a three-game losing streak. The Celtics got two of their key injured big men back for that game, Al Horford and Marcus Morris. Look for the Celtics to build on that victory. Boston has a much tougher defense than the 76ers ranking fourth compared to Philadelphia's 23rd rating and far more depth.
12-24-18	Broncos v. Raiders +3	Top	14-27	Win	100	20 h 10 m	Show
If there is one game the Raiders should be up for it is this one - a Monday night home game in what could be their final game ever in Oakland. The Broncos are a dead team done in the past two weeks by losses to the 49ers and Browns. Vance Joseph is not expected to return as coach. One of Joseph's failing is Denver's poor road record during his two seasons - 4-11 SU, 5-10 ATS - including a seven-point road loss to the Raiders last season. Denver failed to cover when it hosted the Raiders in Week 2, winning 20-19 as 5 1/2-point favorites. Derek Carr completed 29 of 32 passes in that game for 288 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos' secondary is down a key member with cornerback Chris Harris out. Carr rates a strong edge over journeyman Case Keenum.
12-23-18	Bucs v. Cowboys -7	Top	20-27	Push	0	87 h 29 m	Show
Tampa Bay's defense has shown improvement, but not enough to overcome the Cowboys' ground attack and poor situational spot the Bucs find themselves in. The Buccaneers' defense was on the field for 74 plays comprising 37 minutes against the highly physical Ravens on the road last Sunday. This is their second road game in a row and 11th straight week of playing. I can envision the gassed Buccaneers losing the battle of the trenches to the Cowboys offensive line and superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott. Tampa Bay ranks 27th in run defense. Jameis Winston doesn't often play well on the road. The Buccaneers are averaging only 16.6 points a game in their last three games. Their offense has declined as their defense has improved. The Cowboys have a top-five defense, which is made even better with the return of Sean Lee. The Cowboys are going to be highly motivated following a 23-0 shutout loss to the Colts on the road last Sunday. The Cowboys are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS at home this season.
12-21-18	Blackhawks v. Avalanche -1.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	13 h 0 m	Show
This is a tremendous kill spot for the Avalanche and I have no hesitation backing this view with a puck line play in order to greatly reduce the juice. Colorado is by far the superior team. The Avalanche are rested and draw the Blackhawks in a super letdown spot and with no rest carrying a huge fatigue rating. Chicago defeated the Predators, 2-1, at home Tuesday and then upset the Stars, 5-2, on Thursday in Dallas. This marks their third game in four days - all at different venues - and fourth game in six days. Making this worse for the Blackhawks is playing in Denver, which is high altitude. The Avalanche are 10-6 in their last 16 games. They are the No. 5 scoring team in the NHL with the league's third-best power play. The Blackhawks are in the bottom two both in allowing goals and in killing off power plays. The Blackhawks are without their top goalie, Corey Crawford. They either will have journeyman Cam Ward in net, or rookie Collin Delia.
12-20-18	Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida	Top	38-20	Win	100	68 h 2 m	Show
Current form and superior defense are two keys in projecting bowl winners. So is pedigree. Marshall has all these factors going and the spread is low enough to back the Thundering Herd. Marshall has won and covered each of its last six bowl games under Doc Holliday. Holliday is a coach you can count on. South Florida is in terrible form. The Bulls were bogus when they opened 7-0. That was proven when they finished the regular-season with five straight losses, all by double-digits. The Thundering Herd own a huge defensive advantage. They rank 31st in the country in fewest points allowed at 22 per game. South Florida ranks 92nd in points given up at 31.5. That number shoots up to 39.6 if you count just the Bulls' last five games.
12-17-18	Saints v. Panthers +7	Top	12-9	Win	100	19 h 22 m	Show
It has been a disappointing season to say the least for the Panthers. That's what happens when you lose a lot of close games like Carolina has. Only twice all season have the 6-7 Panthers lost by more than a touchdown. This is the Panthers' Super Bowl. They draw the Saints playing in their third consecutive road game. New Orleans has averaged just 262 total yards of offense in its last three games, which would rank 31st in the league if computed for the entire season. Carolina's troubles have stemmed mainly when they are on the road. The Panthers have won 10 of their last 11 home games, including going 5-1 at home this season.
12-16-18	Eagles v. Rams -9	Top	30-23	Loss	-103	129 h 1 m	Show
Physically and mentally down, the Eagles aren't ready for the Rams. LA is in a kill mood after its worst offensive performance of the season this past Sunday night. That was in cold conditions on the road against a very strong Bears defense. The Rams have multiple weapons to take advantage of the Eagles' messy cornerback situation, which has numerous injuries and is composed of second and third-stringers. Jared Goff is back in his element playing in California. Unlike last season when the Eagles outscored the Rams, 43-35, Philadelphia doesn't have the offensive capability to hang anymore with LA. The Eagles have no ground game to fall back on and Golden Tate has been a major disappointment since joining the Eagles from the Lions failing to elevate Philly's passing attack. The Eagles defense was on the field for 93 plays in their overtime loss against the Cowboys last week. They are worn down. They couldn't ask for a more dangerous offense to face on the road than the Rams. Mentally, the Eagles aren't there either with their playoff hopes realistically dashed following the loss to Dallas.
12-16-18	Dolphins v. Vikings -7	Top	17-41	Win	100	121 h 40 m	Show
The Dolphins are not nearly as good as their 7-6 record. They don't have an elite player on their roster. Their best player might be corernback Xavien Howard and he's hurt missing last week's game. The Vikings have a very strong home field. They have covered 69 percent of their home games under Mike Zimmer. The Dolphins are 1-10 SU, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. They have lost four away games this season by double-digits. Minnesota's defense is far superior. The Vikings also don't have to deal with a high octane offense. The Dolphins' lone outside threat is Kenyan Drake and he is under utilized. Ryan Tannehill is a limited quarterback and playing on a sore ankle. Look for the fired-up Vikings to expose the Dolphins for the fraud team that they are.
12-15-18	Arizona State v. Fresno State -4	Top	20-31	Win	100	68 h 41 m	Show
Credit to Herm Edwards for doing an excellent job with Arizona State. But the Sun Devils are not in Fresno State's class. Fresno State is holding foes to 13.7 points a game this season. That's the second-best scoring defense in the nation. Arizona State surrendered 12 more points per game than the Bulldogs. The Sun Devils will be without their best player with wide receiver N'Keal Harry deciding to skip the game in order to prepare for the NFL draft where he is expected to go in the first round. I'm not that high on ASU quarterback Manny Wilkins especially since he won't have Harry anymore. An insight into this matchup could come with common opponents. Both teams played San Diego State at home. Fresno State beat the Aztecs, 23-14, and had a 108-yard advantage, where as the Sun Devils lost 28-21 to the Aztecs and were outgained, 440-377. Each team also played UCLA. Fresno State whipped the Bruins, 38-14, on the road while outgaining them by 150 yards. ASU nipped the Bruins, 31-28, while playing at home and only outgained them by 41 yards.
12-14-18	Hawks +13 v. Celtics	Top	108-129	Loss	-105	21 h 31 m	Show
The Celtics have won seven in a row, including getting past the Wizards on the road Wednesday despite missing Al Horford, Gordon Hayward and Jaylon Brown. Now the Celtics draw the lowly Hawks at home with a road game looming against the Pistons on Saturday. Not only is the backdoor open for the Hawks, but so is the possibility they can hang in and make this a game. Horford remains out. Hayward and Brown are questionable. Both are ill. The Celtics have no need to rush either back given their depth and not taking the Hawks as a serious threat. Atlanta has covered its last two games. The Hawks upset the Nuggets at home and lost by seven points as 9 1/2-point road 'dogs to the Mavericks. The Hawks are averaging 112.7 points in their last seven games if you toss out a 94-point performance they had against the Hornets. The 112.7-point average would rank 10th best if computed during the entire season. The Celtics have not been good in this type of role failing to cover 12 of the past 15 times when laying more than eight points.
12-10-18	Heat v. Lakers -6.5	Top	105-108	Loss	-109	13 h 14 m	Show
The Heat have opened their current six-game road trip with victories against the Suns and Clippers. I don't expect them to make it three wins in a row. The Lakers have been playing better going 5-1 in their last six games with all of their victories coming by eight or more points. The Lakers rolled past the Heat, 113-97, at Miami on Nov. 18. They hold a huge talent edge. Miami could be without two of its key players. Josh Richardson is dealing with a shoulder injury and Hassan Whitesite has been out for personal reasons.
12-09-18	Jets +3.5 v. Bills	Top	27-23	Win	100	75 h 16 m	Show
When it's dreck versus dreck give me the garbage team getting the points especially with division revenge. That would be the Jets here. Both teams are going with rookie quarterback and rebuilding for next season. But the Jets are going to be super high for this game after the Bills embarrassed them on Nov. 11 dealing them one of the ugliest defeats in franchise history, 41-10. That loss really put Todd Bowles on the hot seat. Bowles is popular with the Jets players. I believe the Jets will put forth one of their strongest - if not the strongest - effort of the season in this matchup. Talent-wise, the Bills are not any better than the Jets.
12-08-18	Nets v. Knicks -3	Top	112-104	Loss	-108	18 h 47 m	Show
The timing of this matchup should work in the Knicks' favor. New York was buried by Boston, 128-100, on the road Thursday. Knicks coach David Fizdale ripped his team following that embarrassment. New York has been playing better lately, though, going 4-4 while covering six of its last nine games. This is a rivalry matchup, but the Nets are in letdown mode after stunning the Raptors, 106-105, in overtime at home Friday night. That win halted an eight-game Brooklyn losing streak. The Nets have really missed Caris LeVert, who was their leading scorer. Until upsetting Toronto, the Nets were 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in their past eight games.
12-06-18	Jaguars v. Titans -4.5	Top	9-30	Win	100	24 h 49 m	Show
Bad quarterback. Decimated offensive line. Shot morale with no playoff chance after entering the season holding Super Bowl aspirations. Say hello to the 2018 Jacksonville Jaguars, the biggest underachievers in the AFC. The Jaguars are further hurt by traveling on a short week this being the Thursday game. Game manager Cody Kessler is 1-8 as an NFL starter. He's isn't going to produce many points with a beat-up offensive line and sub-par receivers. Tennessee's defense has played just below Jacksonville's ranking sixth in fewest points allowed and ninth in yards given up. So while a slight edge to Jacksonville on defense, the Titans have a much superior offense. Marcus Mariota has been playing well. He plays better against the Jaguars than any other team with a seven-game career mark of 107-for172 (62.2 percent), 1,317 yards passing and an eight-to-two touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has rushed for 290 yards and scored two touchdowns on the ground. The Titans have defeated the Jaguars in their last three meetings holding the Jaguars to an average of 10.6 points a game.
12-02-18	Browns +7 v. Texans	Top	13-29	Loss	-140	36 h 42 m	Show
Free of Hue Jackson, rookies Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb are playing their best ball. Mayfield is 36-for-46 passing for 474 yards with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ration in his last two games while Chubb has gained 337 yards from scrimmage and scored four TD's in the last two weeks. Cleveland is a dangerous foe for the fat and happy Texans, winners of eight in a row. Houston is on a short week after dispatching Tennessee at home and two games up on the Colts in the AFC South Division. The Texans aren't nearly as good as their record and are ripe for an upset. They have built their win streak versus easy competition and by winning close games. Houston won four games by a combined 10 points, two of them coming in overtime. They have lost to the Giants and only beaten the Bills by a touchdown. Bill O'Brien plays not to lose. Because of that, the Texans are very bad in a chalk role. Going back to 2016, the Texans are 3-8-1 ATS when laying a field goal or more. Houston also has failed to cover in its last seven December games.
11-30-18	Northern Illinois +4 v. Buffalo	Top	30-29	Win	100	20 h 26 m	Show
Northern Illinois has lost two in a row, but the Huskies are laying in the weeds. They've been pointing to this matchup, the MAC title game. Note the game is at a neutral site, Ford Field in Detroit. Buffalo has the better record and the flashier quarterback in Tyree Jackson. Northern Illinois, though, has the best defense in the MAC. Jackson is turnover prone and hasn't faced a defense this good. Jackson has a stud wideout, Anthony Johnson. But look for Northern Illinois to cause Jackson problems with its pass rush and linebackers. The situation favors Northern Illinois, too. Buffalo played last week. Northern Illinois has been idle since Nov. 20. This also is the Bulls' third straight road appearance and fourth different venue in their last four games. The Huskies nipped the Bulls, 14-13, at Buffalo last season. The combination of the superior defense and running of Tre Harbison - who has rushed for 950 yards while averaging 5.4 yards a carry - should carry the Huskies to a cover if not an outright victory.
11-29-18	Clippers v. Kings +3	Top	133-121	Loss	-110	21 h 47 m	Show
The Clippers are out of the gates fast going 13-6. Sacramento has been a surprise, too, going 10-10 while covering 60 percent of their games. LA is just a .500 team on the road. The two teams are similar in that neither has a superstar, but each has scoring depth. The Kings have six players averaging 11 or more points a game. Buddy Hield and De'Aaron Fox have become of the better backcourt tandems in the league. The Kings entered the middle part of this week ranked seventh in scoring and first in 3-point shooting percentage. There are unique circumstances in this matchup. The spot is ripe for the home underdog Kings. The Clippers played Wednesday night beating the Suns, 115-99, at home. The Kings have been idle since Sunday. This is Sacramento's lone scheduled national TV matchup with the game on TNT. The Kings are not slated to play on ESPN nor ABC this season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from the Kings with a rare chance to be on the national stage and show off their vast improvement.
11-27-18	Southern Illinois -1.5 v. Colorado State	Top	82-67	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
Colorado State went 11-21 last season. The Rams are 4-2 this season, but have played a weak schedule. Southern Illinois is far more battled tested having taken on Kentucky, UMass, Buffalo and Tulsa, who the Salukis beat by 10 points at neutral site Las Vegas during their last game. Southern Illinois is the deeper team, has played the tougher schedule, is more experienced and is better defensively. The Salukis give up eight fewer points per game than the Rams. These advantages are displayed in the latest Kenpom ratings, which has Southern Illinois ranked 114th and Colorado State rated 200th.
11-26-18	Magic v. Warriors -8	Top	110-116	Loss	-102	21 h 43 m	Show
It's an added bonus if the Warriors get back Draymond Green back for this game. But if not, the Warriors have the firepower with Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson, along with a good situational spot, to roll past Orlando. The Magic are coming off a highly satisfying and intense upset of the Lakers beating them 108-104 on Sunday. In their previous road game, the Magic lost to Denver by 25 points. The Warriors should be focused. Not only did they see what happened to the Lakers, but they go on a five-game road trip starting Thursday following this game. The Magic are playing for third time in four days and second in two days. Golden State has dominated the series winning the past 10 meetings against the Magic with eight of the victories occurring by eight or more points.
11-25-18	Packers v. Vikings -3	Top	17-24	Win	100	33 h 36 m	Show
The Packers didn't make the playoffs last season. They aren't going to make the postseason either this season. The reasons are many: A talent shortage. Stale coaching by Mike McCarthy. Key injuries. Lack of a pass rush. Vulnerable secondary. Aaron Rodgers performing at a good rather than great level. The Vikings aren't at the elite level of the Rams and Saints. But they are coming on and clearly are a tier higher than the Packers. Green Bay is 0-5 on the road this season. The Lions, Seahawks and Redskins all whipped the Packers when they hosted them. The Packers lost to those teams by an average of 8.3 points a game. None of those three teams are as good as Minnesota. The Packers are 1-6-2 ATS the past nine times they have been underdogs. Their history under McCarthy is very bad as underdogs. They don't win games they are not expected to win. This is the third year the Vikings are playing their home games at U.S. Bank Stadium. It is a very strong home field. The Packers are 0-2 there having lost 23-10 last season and 17-14 in 2016 when Sam Bradford was Minnesota's quarterback. The Vikings were missing their two best offensive linemen, Pat Elfein and Brian O'Neill, when they met the Packers in Green Bay in Week 2. The game finished in a 29-29 tie. Vikings kicker Daniel Carlson missed three field goals, including two in overtime. Elfein and O'Neill are back for the Vikings. Carlson has been replaced by steady Dan Bailey, who has made 14 of 17 field goals for Minnesota with one of those misses caused by a bad snap. The Vikings have come on since that early season game. Their defense was elite last season and it has yielded just 263.6 yards during the past five games. That would rank No. 1 in the NFL by 37 yards if computed during the entire season. Just two games ago, the Vikings amassed 10 sacks in a 24-9 win against the Lions. Maybe because his knee still isn't 100 percent. Maybe it's because of his barely concealed ill feelings toward McCarthy. Whatever it is, Rodgers isn't having is typical season. There has been tremendous quarterback play from a number of quarterbacks - Patrick Mahomes, Philip Rivers, Andrew Luck, Dree Brees, Matt Ryan and Jared Goff. Rodgers hasn't performed at that level. Rodgers is going to face tremendous inside pressure from the Vikings' defensive line and he doesn't have quality guards to protect him. He's also down several of his receivers, including Randall Cobb, Geronimo Allison and possibly Jimmy Graham, who has a broken thumb. The Packers are thin defensively especially at safety. Green Bay also is without its best defensive player, tackle Mike Daniels. Kirk Cousins has the weapons to take advantage with Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Look for Dalvin Cook to have a big game, too, now that he's healthy. Green Bay's run defense really goes downhill minus Daniels.
11-22-18	Falcons +13 v. Saints	Top	17-31	Loss	-105	56 h 20 m	Show
At 4-6, the Falcons are on life support. They are in must-win mode while the Saints are on cruise control. Normally the home team has a huge edge on Thursday games. But the Falcons are familiar with their division rival and this isn't a long trip. The Saints nipped the Falcons, 43-37, in overtime back in Week 3. I see the same back-and-forth type offensive fireworks in the rematch. Drew Brees is having another brilliant season, but so is Matt Ryan, who threw for five touchdowns in the first meeting. As geat as the Saints have been this season, they are 0-4 ATS the past two yers when laying nine or more points.
11-20-18	Nets v. Heat -3	Top	104-92	Loss	-109	19 h 45 m	Show
I don't understand this line. Miami should have opened a much higher home favorite. True the Heat aren't playing well. They are a disappointing 6-10 and have lost five of their last six. But the Nets are 7-10 and have lost four of their last five. Brooklyn just recently lost its best player, Caris LeVert. The teams met just six days ago in Brooklyn. The Heat were a two-point road favorite. Now they open only a three-point home favorite. The Heat won that game,. 120-107. Miami is a frustrated team capable of much better. The Heat have the two best players on the court, Josh Richardson and Hassan Whiteside. The Nets aren't capable of better. They are not a playoff caliber team. They aren't playing defense either giving up 120 or more points in three of their last four games.
11-18-18	Vikings +3 v. Bears	Top	20-25	Loss	-125	131 h 40 m	Show
Coming off their bye, the Vikings have gotten healthier on defense and their defense is coming on ranking in the top-five during their past four games. Minnesota is close to full strength now and has Dalvin Cook back to provide a home run threat on offense, which it was lacking before. Cook's dangerous presence can mitigate the Bears' pass rush because of his value as a receiving back. Kirk Cousins rates a strong edge on Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears also are unstable at kicker with Cody Parkey missing four kicks last Sunday, including two extra points. The Vikings took care of their kicking issues by signing highly accurate and reliable Dan Bailey.
11-17-18	Texas Tech v. Kansas State +7	Top	6-21	Win	100	25 h 24 m	Show
Kansas State is a must-win mode if it wants to make it nine straight years of going to a bowl game. The Wildcats have a strong history of covering as a 'dog under Bill Snyder and they surely won't lack motivation here with speculation this could be Snyder's final home game. He could be retiring after 27 years of coaching. So this is going to be an emotional setting at Bill Snyder Family Memorial Stadium. Kansas State has lost three games by a combined nine points. The Wildcats have the superior rushing attack - led by Alex Barnes one the best running backs in the country - and better defense. Texas Tech has been regressing. The Red Raiders have lost three in a row. They are likely not to have injured quarterback Alan Bowman available. He's recovering from a lung injury. Kansas State has won the last three in the series, including winning 42-35 at Texas Tech last season.
11-16-18	Memphis v. SMU +8.5	Top	28-18	Loss	-102	33 h 57 m	Show
SMU has come on be tied for first in the AAC West Conference. Mustangs QB Ben Hicks is having a nice season with 1,919 yards and 16 TD passes of which 10 have come during the past four games. The Mustangs have a deep crop of running backs, too. Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and lacks the defense to cover this big of a road number. The Tigers' record has been fattened up by the weak foes they have played such as Mercer, Georgia State, South Alabama, UConn, East Carolina and Tulsa.
11-13-18	Western Michigan -7.5 v. Ball State	Top	41-42	Loss	-100	16 h 45 m	Show
Back in Week 2, Ball State hung in against Notre Dame losing, 24-16. Since then, though, things have gone way downhill for the Cardinals. They are 2-6 since that close loss and out of conference and bowl contention. Their starting quarterback, Riley Neal, is out with a knee injury and their top running back, James Gilbert, has been demoted to second team after missing last week's game with a back injury. Ball State has gotten blasted in its last two games losing, 52-14 to Ohio and 45-13 to Toledo. The Cardinals have two games left and their coaching staff has made it known they are going to be looking at younger players. There are inexperienced players in the secondary and in the offensive line. Western Michigan needs this game to keep its MAC West Division title hopes alive and also secure a bowl bid. The Broncos buried the Cardinals, 55-3, last season. The Broncos are treating this as their most important game of the season.
11-12-18	Jazz -3 v. Grizzlies	Top	96-88	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
The Jazz already have double revenge against the Grizzlies. They are 0-2 versus Memphis this season with both losses occurring in Salt Lake City. Utah was missing Donovan Mitchell in one those losses. Mitchell is healthy now and the Jazz are playing better. The Grizzlies are improved this season. But they are not in Utah's class. The Grizzlies have fed on a bunch of bad teams at home beating the Hawks, Suns and Wizards. Memphis is coming off a 112-106 home overtime victory against the 76ers. The Grizzlies caught the 76ers in the second of back-to-back games following Philadelphia's home overtime win against the Hornets. The 76ers ran out of gas in that game.
11-10-18	Nets v. Warriors -7	Top	100-116	Win	100	10 h 34 m	Show
Even without injured Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, Golden State is strong enough to dispatch the Nets by double-digits at home especially given the circumstances. The Warriors are far the superior team and probably have the best bench in the league. The Warriors are in bounce back mode after their eight-game win streak was snapped by the Bucks on Thursday in an embarrassing 23-point home loss. The Nets are off a dramatic 112-110 road win against the Nuggets last night, winning when Caris LeVert hit a shot with 0.3 seconds left. The Nets can be a pesky 'dog on the road - but not when a vastly better foe takes them serious. That will be the case here.
11-10-18	Miami-FL +3.5 v. Georgia Tech	Top	21-27	Loss	-115	43 h 10 m	Show
Stop Georgia Tech on the ground and you beat the Yellow Jackets. Miami has done that in each of the last three seasons beating Georgia Tech three times in a row. The Hurricanes have a tremendous trio of three-year starting linebackers in Zach McCloud, Michael Pinckney and Shaq Quarterman. They've helped the Hurricanes rank No. 1 in the nation in tackles for losses, being No. 2 in total defense and 19th in scoring defense giving up 19.3 points per game. The last time Georgia Tech faced a defense this good was in Week 4 when it lost 49-21 to Clemson. No, Miami isn't nearly as good as Clemson. But the Hurricanes are good where it counts against this opponent, who they have owned the last three seasons. Georgia Tech has no choice but to run the ball. They are a one-dimensional option offense. Hurricanes coach Mark Richt knows Georgia Tech's offense well from his days coaching at Georgia. The key for Miami is getting good enough quarterback play. That should happen with the decision to go with N'Kosi Perry as the starter this week. He's more talented than Malik Rosier.
11-09-18	Fresno State v. Boise State +3	Top	17-24	Win	100	25 h 16 m	Show
Fresno State has the best defense in the Mountain West Conference. That's helped make the Bulldogs a road favorite here. But that should come with a disclaimer: The Bulldogs haven't faced a decent quarterback or offense. Now they draw the Broncos and Brett Rypien, who is on the verge of becoming the Mountain West's all-time passing yardage leader. Boise State ranks 21st in points per game and 22nd in yards per game. Fresno State hasn't won during its last nine tries at Boise State. The teams last met at Boise State in last season's Mountain West title game. The Broncos were 10-point home favorites - a swing of nearly two touchdowns from the line on this game - and defeated the Bulldogs, 17-14. Fresno State is good. But so is Boise State. The Broncos are just 5-15 ATS at home. But they haven't been a home 'dog before. And they shouldn't be here.
11-08-18	Panthers v. Steelers -3.5	Top	21-52	Win	100	80 h 57 m	Show
The Steelers are playing their finest ball winning and covering their last four games. Carolina is at a severe disadvantage being the visitor for this Thursday game. The Panthers have a below average passing statistics. They are vulnerable to Ben Roethlisberger, who has a strong history of playing much better at home. James Connor has more than filled in well for holdout Le'Veon Bell providing the Steelers with a balanced attack. The Panthers lack the Steelers' strong downfield passing game. Pittsburgh ranks tied for third in the AFC in sacks. Cam Newton is not an accurate passer and will be under a heavy pass rush.
11-07-18	Nuggets v. Grizzlies +4	Top	87-89	Win	100	9 h 41 m	Show
The last time the Nuggets blasted out of the blocks this well was 1976. They are 9-1. But this is a spot to step in against them. Memphis is 3-0 SU and ATS at home. All of its home victories are by 12 or more points. The Grizzlies have covered in their last six home games going back to last season. FedEx Forum is a strong home-court for Memphis. The Grizzlies are in stop-the-pain mode after losing the final two games of their road trip with the last occurring to the Warriors two days ago. Memphis is much improved from last season with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley healthy and having a deeper bench. Denver is in a letdown spot after a huge home victory against the Celtics on Monday. The Nuggets are not that strong away from Pepsi Center going 1-2 ATS during their past three away matchups. Denver also has bad recent track record versus Southwest Division foes going 0-6 ATS against them.
11-06-18	Nets v. Suns +1	Top	104-82	Loss	-106	21 h 53 m	Show
Can the Suns win two in a row? Yes. Phoenix is a different team when Devin Booker is healthy like he is now. The Suns upset the Grizzlies at home this past Sunday. It was Booker's second game back after he missed three games with a hamstring injury. That win halted a seven-game Phoenix losing streak and has given the Suns confidence. Booker was the key. He is one of the best players in the league although he doesn't get a lot of publicity. Phoenix will have the two best players on the court in Booker and rookie Deandre Ayton when they host Brooklyn Tuesday. The Nets are 1-4 on the road. Their lone away win was against the Cavaliers, who have the worst record in the NBA at 1-9. The Nets last were on the road eight days ago when they were blasted by the Knicks, 115-96.
11-03-18	Houston -14 v. SMU	Top	31-45	Loss	-113	30 h 22 m	Show
Houston wins because of its high-scoring offense. The Cougars have scored 40-plu points in eight straight games. They rank first in the country in total yards and No. 2 in scoring. Houston quarterback D'eriq King has had at least two passing touchdowns and one rushing TD in every game this year. The Cougars have an excellent track record on the road going 23-10-1 (70%) in their past 34 away matchups. SMU needs to play ball-control and have a balanced offense to hang with the Cougars. But the Mustangs don't have that. They are averaging 98.6 yards on the ground, which ranks 123rd. SMU is averaging fewer than 50 yards rushing in its last three games. The Mustangs are poorly-coached - 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games - and have given up eight-non defensvie touchdowns, including four pick-six interceptions off Ben Hicks.
11-02-18	Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -13.5	Top	10-29	Win	100	19 h 7 m	Show
Western Kentucky has frustrated Middle Tennessee State for three straight years, including defeating the Blue Raiders, 41-38, last season in triple overtime. Now the table is set for the Blue Raiders to get their revenge in a big way. The Hilltoppers are a dead team done in by the disastrous coaching of Mike Sanford. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. The Hilltoppers are not bowl eligible for the first time in eight years. Middle Tennessee State senior quarterback Brent Stockstill has led the Blue Raiders to a 16-7 record since 2016 in games he has been healthy in. Yet he's 0-3 career-wise versus Western Kentucky. Stockstill is one of the better quarterbacks in Conference USA. The Blue Raiders trail Florida International by just one game in the East Division of that conference. Their offense has a good balance to it with the emergence of running back Terelle West. Western Kentucky can't keep up averaging fewer than 20 points a game. The Hilltoppers give up nearly 30 points on defense. They've allowed 40, 37 and 38 points in their last three games. They can't match the Blue Raiders on either side of the ball. Middle Tennessee State has a good history in these type situations covering six of the last seven times at home versus foes with a losing road mark.
11-01-18	Raiders +3 v. 49ers	Top	3-34	Loss	-103	49 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden is desperate for a victory and he has a chance to achieve that in this nationally televised Thursday night matchup. As bad as the Raiders have been, the 49ers have even a worse record. The 49ers also are one of the most banged-up teams in the NFL. The Raiders have a huge quarterback edge with Derek Carr. This edge would be even greater if C.J. Beathard is a scratch because of a wrist injury. That would make second-year undrafted free agent Nick Mullens the 49ers' starting quarterback. Carr is coming off a four touchdown performance against the Cowboys and has regained his confidence. Usually it's a huge disadvantage to be the road team in the Thursday matchup. But it's different here because Oakland and San Francisco are just a little more than 12 miles apart. So travel isn't an issue for the visiting Raiders. It's the 49ers who are hurt the most by the short week because of their long injury list.
10-31-18	Pacers -5.5 v. Knicks	Top	107-101	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
I see the Pacers bouncing back from a disappointing home loss to the Trail Blazers this past Monday. The Trail Blazers are off to a fast start and they played well against Indiana. The Pacers are a much better team than the rebuilding Knicks, who are 2-5 with their victories coming against the lowly Hawks and Nets. The Pacers entered their matchup against the Trail Blazers having posted road victories against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Victor Oladipo, though, had an off-shooting night against the Trail Blazers after connecting on 17 of 27 shots from the floor against the Spurs and Cavaliers. Indiana has a strong record in bounce back situations like this going 16-5 ATS following a loss. New York is fat and happy after halting a five-game losing streak with a resounding revenge win against the Nets on Monday, 115-96.