Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover ALL Sports Top Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-29-19	Jazz -6.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	103-94	Win	100	9 h 19 m	Show
The teams met just two weeks ago and the Grizzlies beat the Jazz, 107-106, as 7 1/2-point home 'dogs. The Jazz have huge revenge and the line this time around is lower. Mike Conley did not play well in his return to Memphis after being the Grizzlies' point guard for 12 years. Conley vows to be more focused and play better today. Utah made just 40.1 percent of its field goal attempts in that earlier loss to the Grizzlies. The Jazz are not only are anxious for this rematch, but ready to get back on the court after suffering an embarrassing, 121-102, road loss to the Pacers two days ago. The Jazz did get back star center Rudy Gobert in that game. He had been out two games with an ankle injury. The Grizzlies are in a major rebuild job. They've lost five in a row since upsetting the Jazz.
11-28-19	Saints -6.5 v. Falcons	Top	26-18	Win	100	23 h 32 m	Show
The Saints have a legitimate claim to being the best team in the NFC. The Falcons are one of the worst. New Orleans has been great against the spread, too, covering seven of its last nine. One of those non-covers was an embarrassing straight-up home loss to Atlanta from three weeks ago. The Saints were two-touchdown favorites in that game. Now they are just a touchdown favorite. Is the Falcons' home field advantage worth that much? Of course not. The Saints won't have the starting left side of their offensive line with Terron Armstead and Andrus Peat out. But that didn't matter last week when Brees was sacked just twice in 41 dropbacks against the Panthers, who have a stronger pass rush than the Falcons. Brees has a very quick release and tremendous weapons. The Falcons have no answer for Michael Thomas, who is on a record-setting receiving pace. Matt Ryan is dealing with a worse offensive line and is down weapons with Mohamed Sanu traded, Austin Hooper out and backup running back Ito Smith also sidelined. The Falcons probably get back Devonta Freeman, but he's had a disappointing season. Ryan still could be dealing with a sore ankle. He's completed just 57.6 percent of his throws for 6.6 yards per attempt with a three-to-five touchdown-to-turnover ratio during his last four games.
11-28-19	Bears -2.5 v. Lions	Top	24-20	Win	100	57 h 14 m	Show
The Bears have been a major disappointment this season. But the Lions are in worse shape. Detroit has dropped four in a row. The teams just met three weeks ago and Chicago won, 20-13. The Lions didn't have Matthew Stafford in that game and they won't have him Thursday. The Lions also aren't going to have second-stringer Jeff Driskel either. Driskel hurt his hamstring in the Lions' loss to the Redskins this past Sunday. So the Lions are forced to turn to rookie David Blough. He's never taken an NFL snap. Hopefully, you locked into this game early in the week like I did in anticipation of upward line movement. Even if you didn't, though, this is a kill spot for the Bears. Their defense should overwhelm the overmatched Blough. Chicago's defense ranks fourth in fewest points allowed and in fewest yards allowed. The Lions' defense, by contrast, ranks 29th in total yards and 26th in scoring defense. The Bears surrender 81 fewer yards per game than the Lions and nine fewer points a game. The Bears' biggest problem is Mitchell Trubisky. He plays well, though, against the Lions. Trubisky completed 16 of 23 passes for 173 yards and three touchdowns in the earlier victory against the Lions. Trubisky faced the Lions once last season and passed for 355 yards and three touchdowns in a 34-22 win.
11-26-19	Wizards +10 v. Nuggets	Top	104-117	Loss	-109	10 h 34 m	Show
The Wizards are a lottery team. But they are winners when it comes to being big underdogs. Washington is 6-0-1 ATS when taking more than five points this season. The Wizards also are 5-1-1 ATS during their last seven road contests and have covered five of the past six times when meeting the Nuggets. Washington is the No. 2 scoring team in the NBA averaging 119 points. The Wizards should be pumped for this matchup off a bad home loss to Sacramento two days ago. This is the start of a four-game Western Conference swing for the Wizards that includes games against the Lakers and Clippers. The Nuggets are fat and happy going 3-0 on their current homestand with victories against the Suns, Celtics and Rockets. This is their fourth game in seven days. They won't play again until Saturday.
11-25-19	Ravens v. Rams +4	Top	45-6	Loss	-115	10 h 14 m	Show
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are a hot commodity. The Rams are struggling to make the playoffs at 6-4. The combination makes the Rams a good value play. LA has the defense, coaching smarts and offense to win this game straight-up. Oh, yes, the situation is perfect for them, too. Jared Goff is a quarterback you don't want to touch on the road especially in cold weather. But he and the Rams offense are a different animal at home especially against a defense that doesn't apply that much quarterback heat. Goff has all his receiving weapons back, too, with deep threat Brandin Cooks expected to play. The Rams have four quality wideouts plus Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams defense is strong with Jalen Ramsey shoring up the secondary and Aaron Donald having another dominating season in the trenches. Wade Phillips is in the argument for being the top defensive coordinator in the NFL. This is a unit that can control Jackson.
11-24-19	Raiders v. Jets +3	Top	3-34	Win	100	92 h 6 m	Show
Jon Gruden has improved the Raiders this season. But he hasn't improved Oakland enough where it can cover as a road favorite in a flat spot like this. The Raiders are traveling cross-country for an early West Coast start time. Up next for Oakland is an AFC West showdown against the Chiefs. Under Gruden, the Raiders have failed to cover in eight of 12 away matchups. The Raiders need to establish a balanced attack. The Jets do one thing extremely well - stop the run ranking No. 1 in the NFL giving up fewer than 80 yards per game. Saquan Barkley managed just one yard on 13 carries against the Jets. That does not bode well for Josh Jacobs. Oakland is vulnerable through the air ranking 27th in pass defense. Sam Darnold has started to play better and has good receiving targets to take advantage. The Jets' strengths match up well to Oakland and New York also is in the superior situational spot.
11-23-19	Washington v. Colorado +14.5	Top	14-20	Win	100	57 h 47 m	Show
This high line might be justified from a Washington point of view if this were last season and if the Huskies cared about this game. But it's not. Washington is down from the past couple of seasons. The Huskies have the third-best defense in the Pac-12. Certainly that's good by ordinary standards, but not by Washington standards. The Huskies had led the Pac-12 in the key defensive categories during the previous four seasons. Colorado has receiving weapons for experienced QB Steven Montez with Laviska Shenault, Tony Brown and K.D. Nixon. Shenault is one of the top wideouts in the nation. The Huskies already have a bowl spot secured with their 6-4 record. They have a look-ahead spot with their traditional season-ending game against Washington State next week. The Buffaloes are in must-win mode if they want to stay alive for a bowl berth. They have played better at home going 3-2 ATS posting straight-up victories against Nebraska and Stanford. Colorado lost by four points to USC as 10 1/2-point home 'dogs.
11-23-19	Texas +6 v. Baylor	Top	10-24	Loss	-110	22 h 21 m	Show
It may take more than a week for Baylor to get over its choke job against Oklahoma. The Sooners rallied from 25 points down to beat the Bears last week ending Baylor's hopes of an unbeaten season. Baylor doesn't even need to win this game to earn a rematch with the Sooners in the Big 12 title game. All the Bears have to do to accomplish that is defeat Kansas in their regular season finale. Texas has had a disappointing season. But the Longhorns still have an outside chance of a conference title plus a strong bowl game if they win their final two regular season games. The Longhorns are at their most dangerous in an underdog role thanks to Tom Herman. He's the premier underdog coach in CFB. Herman coached Houston for two years before going to Texas. The Cougars were 5-0 ATS as 'dogs under Herman. The Longhorns are 10-4 ATS when getting points in three years under Herman. So Herman's combined head coaching record against the spread as an underdog is 15-4 (79 percent)! I like Baylor QB Charlie Brewer. But I like Texas QB Sam Ehlinger even more. Texas has defeated Baylor the past four times the teams have met, including 23-17 last season and 38-7 in Waco two years ago.
11-20-19	Pistons +1.5 v. Bulls	Top	89-109	Loss	-104	20 h 29 m	Show
Both teams are struggling. But with Blake Griffin back to team with Andre Drummond, the Pistons have the two best players on the court. This spot favors Detroit, too, on several counts. Not only do the Pistons have revenge for a 112-106 road loss to the Bulls from three weeks ago when they were without Griffin, but they have been idle since Friday. The Bulls, by contrast, are in action for the third time in five days. Chicago is just 2-5 at home. The Bulls are minus injured Otto Porter Jr. and Lauri Markkanen, their best big man, is off to a slow start shooting just 36.2 percent from the floor.
11-18-19	Pacers +4 v. Nets	Top	115-86	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
Indiana had won seven of eight games until losing on the road to the Rockets and at home to the Bucks in its last two games. Now the Pacers go back down in class to take on the Nets. Indiana has covered five of the past six times when taking on sub-.500 opponents. Brooklyn hosted Indiana back on Oct. 30 and the Pacers won, 118-108. The season was just beginning back then and the Nets were 3-point favorites. The Nets haven't been a good team so far yet this spread is higher. This is a favorable situation for Indiana and the Nets have an underrated key injury with guard Caris LeVert out until next month due to a thumb injury. He might be Brooklyn's second best player behind Kyrie Irving. The Nets finished a five-game, nine-day road trip by beating the Bulls two nights ago. Irving sat out that game because of a sore shoulder. I assume he's going to play here. It's an unexpected bonus if he doesn't. I'm taking the number now because if word comes out later that Irving won't play the line is sure to drop. The Nets' concentration level could be down a notch in their first game back from their long road journey. The Pacers rank sixth defensively, the Nets 27th. Indiana is giving up 12 fewer points per game than the Nets. Center Myles Turner is back from an ankle injury and looked good in his last game. Power forward Domantas Sabonis is having a strong season on a string of seven straight double/doubles. Turner and Sabonis give the Pacers a frontcourt edge. Indiana is minus injured guard Malcolm Brogdon. That's a significant missing piece. However, the Nets' guard advantage is reduced with LeVert sidelined. The Pacers have covered in nine of their last 11 games against the Nets, including covering the last five times in Brooklyn.
11-17-19	Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers	Top	101-122	Loss	-108	19 h 46 m	Show
The Lakers had to laugh at Atlanta if they were watching any of the Hawks-Clippers Saturday night game. The Clippers won, 150-101. It was the Hawks' worst loss since moving to Atlanta from St. Louis. The Lakers can't help but take the Hawks for granted. Look for the Hawks, though, to play the Lakers tough in this matchup. Not only is there the embarrassment factor from Saturday night, but the Hawks also shouldn't feel the normal fatigue associated with playing on the second of consecutive nights. Only one Atlanta player reached the 30-minute level Saturday due to the blowout. The game also was played at Staples Center, an arena both the Clippers and Lakers use as their home-court. So there is no travel involved for the Hawks. Note these trends, too: The Hawks have covered 11 of their last 16 road contests and are 9-5 ATS versus above .500 foes.
11-16-19	LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5	Top	58-37	Win	100	28 h 53 m	Show
Huge letdown spot here for LSU after the Tigers' great SEC showdown victory over Alabama last week. That effort was both physically and emotionally draining for the Tigers. If you discount its loss to Alabama, Mississippi has lost five games by an average of 6.6 points. The Rebels played both Texas A&M and Auburn close. Mississippi ranks No. 1 in the SEC and 13th nationally in rushing. Rebels freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee is a dual threat. He leads the team in rushing. LSU QB Joe Burrow can't produce points if his offense is on the bench watching Mississippi control clock with its ground attack.
11-16-19	Navy v. Notre Dame -7	Top	20-52	Win	100	23 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to fade the line movement. The marketplace is overthinking this matchup by their heavy play on Navy. Notre Dame has won 16 in a row at home. The Irish have played a tougher schedule than Navy and beat them, 44-22, last season as 21 1/2-point favorites at a neutral site. This is the last ranked regular season opponent Notre Dame faces. So the Irish won't lack motivation. Navy actually has a bigger game on deck with a first-place showdown in the American Athletic Conference West Division playing at home against SMU.
11-15-19	Gonzaga -6 v. Texas A&M	Top	79-49	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Guess what? Gonzaga is going to be good again this season - real good. The Bulldogs are ranked seventh in the KenPom rankings and that high rating is totally justified. The Zags have reloaded. They are strong at every position with excellent depth. Each of their three games has been a blowout victory. The Bulldogs rank third in the nation in scoring per 100 possessions and also are No. 2 in field goal percentage. They are undoubtedly a top-five offense. Texas A&M has tuned-up well for Gonzaga meeting two weak foes, Northwestern State and Louisiana Monroe. The Aggies didn't come close to covering big spreads against those foes. Texas A&M ranks 66th in KenPom's rankings. The Bulldogs buried the Aggies, 94-71, last season and hold a huge talent edge again this season.
11-15-19	Spurs +3.5 v. Magic	Top	109-111	Win	100	16 h 60 m	Show
The Spurs are in a rough patch right now with three straight losses, including a 129-114 road loss to the Timberwolves in their last game this past Wednesday. However, the Spurs still are superior to the Magic. The situation sets up for the Spurs here and there is splendid line value, too. The Timberwolves played great in beating San Antonio. It happens. Teams run into a hot-shooting foe who comes in with their "A" game. Minnesota is a very improved team, too. The Spurs are not the dominant serious title contender of years past. But they remain a quality team with the best coach in the league, Gregg Popovich. The Magic are getting respect from the oddsmaker based on their last game, which was a smashing, 112-97, home victory versus the 76ers. Note, though, the 76ers were playing their second road game in 48 hours and sat out Joel Embiid. The Magic had been idle the previous two days so the situation set up great for them. This game isn't an ideal spot for the Magic. The Spurs are in full stop-the-pain mode. Even with their high scoring effort against the 76ers, the Magic still rank last in scoring and second-to-last in field goal percentage.
11-13-19	Wizards +9 v. Celtics	Top	133-140	Win	100	17 h 34 m	Show
Washington is a lottery team. But that doesn't mean the Wizards lack talent. They are more than just the Bradley Beal show with promising youngsters Rui Hachimura, Thomas Bryant and Davis Bertans. The Wizards have a winning spread mark and are in an excellent situational spot here. Washington last played on Friday. The Wizards should be rested and motivated after being embarrassed at home by the Cavaliers in a 113-100 loss this past Friday. The Celtics are without Gordon Hayward, who suffered a broken hand during the weekend. Hayward was playing at an All-Star level. Boston managed to defeat the Mavericks, 116-106, on Monday without Hayward. This will be the Celtics' second game without Hayward so their motivation may not be as high. Focus could be an issue, too, for Boston. The Celtics take off for a five-game West Coast swing following this matchup. Boston takes on Golden State Friday on national TV. The Celtics' depth, lessened with Hayward's injury, will be tested since this is Boston's fourth game in seven days. The Celtics haven't been good at home either from a point spread perspective going 4-11-1 ATS the past 16 times.
11-11-19	Seahawks +6 v. 49ers	Top	27-24	Win	100	174 h 14 m	Show
Russell Wilson is the best QB in the NFL right now. I want Wilson going for me with this many points on the Monday Night Football center stage. Seattle has covered the last eight times it has been an underdog, including both times this season. The 49ers are the most improved team in the league. But now they have the bullseye and pressure on them to only win, but cover margins, too. They lack Seattle's prime time big-game experience and record. The Seahawks are well-balanced with a respectable ground attack and now three dangerous wide receiving targets for Wilson with Josh Gordon joining Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. San Francisco suffered an unsung defensive injury with linebacker Kwon Alexander out for the year with a torn pec muscle. Alexander was the 49ers' second-leading tackler. The 49ers also have been missing their starting offensive tackles and star tight end George Kittle is doubtful. Seattle has dominated this series winning 10 of the past 11 meetings going 7-3-1 ATS.
11-06-19	Belmont v. Illinois State +6.5	Top	72-79	Win	100	17 h 13 m	Show
Belmont is coming off an outstanding season. But the Bruins could struggle in this opener. They are a team in transition right now playing with a new coach following the retirement of Rick Byrd and losing their two leading scorers from last season, Dylan Windler and Kevin McClain. Windler averaged 21.3 points and 10.8 rebounds. The Bruins draw Illinois State, a middle-of-the-road Missouri Valley Conference team. MVC schools are known for defense and slow tempos. Illinois State is no exception. I can see the Redbirds frustrating the Bruins at home and getting the cover if not pulling off the outright upset.
11-04-19	Rockets -5.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	107-100	Win	100	10 h 54 m	Show
A 13-point road loss to the Nets this past Friday followed by a humilitating 129-100 defeat to the Heat on Sunday. Now do the Rockets lose for a third straight time? No. I'm getting behind the Rockets in stop-the-pain mode. I understand the Rockets are not in sync and their defense is horrible. But this game sets up well for Houston. The Grizzlies are among the worst teams in the NBA. They are in serious rebuild and won't be seeing positive signs for a while fielding an extremely young lineup with a new coach. Memphis also isn't likely to have their most promising big man, Jaren Jackson Jr. He's questionable with a sore knee. James Harden and Russell Westbrook each played less than half of the game in the blowout loss to the Heat. The prideful superstars should be in line for huge performances as Memphis is really struggling, too, defensively. The Rockets have covered five of the last six in the series.
11-03-19	Redskins v. Bills -9	Top	9-24	Win	100	48 h 4 m	Show
The Redskins are averaging 8.5 points in their last six games. They may get shut out by a strong and angry Bills defense that is coming off an embarrassing, 31-13, home loss to the Eagles last Sunday. Before that game, the Bills had held five of their first six foes to 17 points or fewer. I see Buffalo's defense rebounding in big fashion against rookie QB Dwayne Haskins, who is in line to make his first NFL start. Jay Gruden was right about Haskins in that the first-year QB isn't nearly ready. Haskins has a 34.5 passer rating with four interceptions in two cameo appearances. The Bills should stack the line to stop ancient Adrian Peterson forcing Haskins to make plays, which I don't see him doing. The Bills are very alive to come up with a pick-six or two. The Bills don't have a good offense. But Josh Allen can make plays with his feet and Buffalo should be operating from outstanding field position. The Bills do own two double-digit victories this season.
11-02-19	Kansas State v. Kansas +6.5	Top	38-10	Loss	-115	55 h 55 m	Show
Kansas is one of the most improved teams in the nation under Les Miles. The Jayhawks have posted upsets of Boston College and Texas Tech while nearly knocking off Texas losing at the gun. The Jayhawks' offense has picked up under offensive coordinator Brent Dearmon with Carter Stanley one of the more underrated QB's in the country. Kansas is ready to spring another upset, this time against arch-rival Kansas State. The Wildcats have dominated this series winning the last 10 times. The Jayhawks hung tough against the Wildcats last season on the road, losing 21-17. Now the Jayhawks are home, vastly improved, riding some confidence and catch the Wildcats in a letdown spot. Kansas State just pulled off a monster upset of Oklahoma last Saturday as a 23 1/2-point home 'dog. This is the Wildcats' first road game in four weeks and only their third road game of the season.
11-01-19	Bucks -4.5 v. Magic	Top	123-91	Win	100	17 h 51 m	Show
Both Milwaukee and Orlando are 2-2. But that's where the similarity ends. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA during the regular season last year - and they could be even better this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a favorite to win MVP honors. The Bucks have drawn three tough opponents during their first four games - Rockets, Heat and Celtics. The Magic are a borderline playoff team. Orlando has faced three easy opponents in its first four games - Cavaliers, Hawks and Knicks. Yet, the Magic are last in the league in scoring at 95.8 points per game. That's 24 fewer points per game than what the Bucks average. Milwaukee is off a road loss to the Celtics. The Bucks are 22-7 ATS following a defeat. This spread is too low given the quality of the two teams and the Bucks being in bounce-back mode.
10-31-19	Canadiens v. Golden Knights -1.5	Top	5-4	Loss	-100	12 h 6 m	Show
Kill spot here for the Golden Knights. The oddsmaker knows this, too, that's why the money line is so high. I don't lay prices that high, but will gladly take a plus price on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals. The Golden Knights buried the Ducks, 5-2, in their last game. That was back on Sunday so Las Vegas will be well rested. Not so for Montreal. The Canadiens just beat Arizona, 4-1, last night with Carey Price in net. So the Canadiens either will start backup goalie Keith Kincaid, or a tired Price. The Golden Knights are the much superior team and this is a favorable spot for them.
10-31-19	West Virginia v. Baylor -17.5	Top	14-17	Loss	-110	32 h 19 m	Show
This matchup sets up well for Baylor coming off a bye. Baylor is very solid on both sides of the ball and is running hot with seven straight wins. West Virginia is at low ebb losing three in a row, being outscored in those games, 132-59, by Texas, Iowa State and Oklahoma State. Those are all good Big 12 teams. But so is unbeaten 11th-ranked Baylor. The Bears have the third-best scoring offense in the Big 12. The Bears have depth at running back, a receiving threat in Denzel Mims and dual threat quarterback Charlie Brewer knows how to take care of the ball. If you discount the Texas Tech game, Brewer hasn't thrown an interception all season. Brewer will be operating against a depleted West Virginia defense that gives up the most points in the Big 12 and just lost linebacker Josh Chandler to a knee injury.
10-30-19	Pistons +9 v. Raptors	Top	113-125	Loss	-105	8 h 15 m	Show
Games against Toronto always hold extra meaning now for Detroit. That's become they come against Pistons coach Dwane Casey's former team. Casey knows the Raptors and their personnel well having been their head coach for seven seasons until two years ago. The Pistons went 3-0 versus the Raptors last season and they should be up for this one, too. Detroit has covered in six of its last eight visits to Toronto. This is the Raptors' fourth game in six days. Toronto's next game is much bigger - at the Bucks. Blake Griffin isn't back for Detroit yet. But the Pistons have been getting solid play from Christian Wood. He looked good during preseason and that has carried into the season.
10-28-19	Cavs v. Bucks -15	Top	112-129	Win	100	9 h 43 m	Show
The Bucks are in the mood for a blowout after kicking away a 21-point lead at home in a 131-126 overtime loss to the Heat on Saturday. Giannis Antetokounmpo is off to a fast start. The Cavaliers are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and have inexperienced guards. Cleveland, though, is coming off an emotional 110-99 home victory against Indiana on Saturday. The Cavaliers played extremely well in that contest in giving coach Jim Beilein his first pro victory. I don't think the youthful Cavaliers have the maturity to stay close to maybe the best team in the NBA while taking to the road. The Bucks are 21-7 ATS following a defeat. The Bucks are 8-2-1 ATS the past 11 times laying double-digits. They beat the Cavaliers twice at home last season with the average winning margin being 19 points.
10-27-19	Packers v. Chiefs +4.5	Top	31-24	Loss	-110	45 h 14 m	Show
OK, Patrick Mahomes isn't going to play. But the Chiefs are far from dead without Mahomes especially as a home 'dog in this price range. We can all agree Arrowhead Stadium is one of the tougher road venues. There should be unanimous agreement, too, that Andy Reid is an elite coach dangerous with extra prep time, which the Chiefs have from playing last Thursday. Veteran Matt Moore is one of the better backups in the league. I respect Moore because he throws downfield where many backups don't have the skill set to do anything except game manage and checkdown. Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill provide Moore with a top-two tight end and perhaps the premier deep threat in the league. This is just Green Bay's second road game in seven weeks. Aaron Rodgers has a career losing road record and isn't expected to have his top wide receiver, injured Davonte Adams.
10-27-19	Broncos v. Colts -4	Top	13-15	Loss	-115	38 h 25 m	Show
If the Broncos thought they could make a successful run with Joe Flacco at quarterback they were sadly delusional. It took a 30-6 home loss to the Chiefs last Thursday to figure that out. Now, at 2-5, the Broncos know they are dead. Only seven teams during the last 40 years have made the postseason after opening 2-5. Emmmanuel Sanders, Denver's best wideout, got traded. Others are likely to follow before Tuesday's trade deadline concludes. Unless Dwayne Haskins becomes the Redskins new first-stringer, Flacco is the worst starting QB in the NFL. And Garett Bolles may be the worst offensive left tackle in the league. It's a lethal combination that sinks the Broncos' popgun offense that has failed to break 16 points in five of their seven games. The Broncos' defense is good, but not great. Certainly it's not nearly strong enough to carry such a putrid offense. The Colts have proven time after time under Frank Reich that they are legitimate. Indy's defense has back it's best playmaker, linebacker Darius Leonard, and top defensive back in free safety Malik Hooker. The Colts are balanced on offense with Jacoby Brissett coming off a confidence-building four-touchdown performance in a 30-23 home win against Houston last Sunday. When you factor in home field advantage and the Colts being without a major weakness, this line comes up short.
10-26-19	Illinois v. Purdue -9.5	Top	24-6	Loss	-106	41 h 45 m	Show
Congrats to Illinois on pulling off the season's biggest upset with its 24-23 home victory against sixth-ranked Wisconsin last Saturday. The Illini were 28 1/2-point underdogs. It was the first time Illinois had defeated a ranked team in eight years. I'm not a fan of Illinois coach Lovie Smith, though, and I don't see the Illini being ready to go on the road to take on a frustrated Purdue team that has dominated them recently. This is the mother of all letdown spots for Illinois. Purdue has lost its quarterback, Elijah Sindelar, and star wide receiver Rondale Moore to injuries. However, backup QB Jack Plummer is showing steady improvement, the Boilermakers still have good receiving depth - including an excellent pass-catching tight end in Brycen Hopkins - and an edge in coaching with Jeff Brohm. Illinois could be missing its leading pass receiver, Ricky Smalling, and defensive end Oluwole Betiku, who ranks among the nation leaders in sacks. Both were injured against Wisconsin. The Boilermakers have beaten the Illini each of the last three years, including 46-7 on the road last season and 29-10 two years ago.
10-25-19	Blazers -2.5 v. Kings	Top	122-112	Win	100	19 h 57 m	Show
Let's just say Luke Walton's coaching debut with the Kings was less than stellar. That's as kind as I can put it. Sacramento was whipped by the lowly Suns, 124-95, at Phoenix this past Wednesday. The Kings had Marvin Bagley and Buddy Hield in that game. Those are two of their three best players with Bagley being their top big man. Bagley is out now with a broken right thumb and Hield is questionable with an ankle sprain. He didn't practice on Thursday. The Kings are in transition learning Walton's system and now they have to adjust again. The youthful Kings are going to encounter an angry Trail Blazers squad that had their 18-game win streak in home openers ended by Denver this past Wednesday. Portland caught a hot Denver team that made 18 of 32 3-pointers while the Trail Blazers missed 21 of 28 shots from beyond the arc. I trust All-Star guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum far more than what Sacramento has right now. I also like Portland coach Terry Stotts much more than Walton. Portland is 17-8-2 ATS(68%) following a point spread loss.
10-24-19	SMU v. Houston +14.5	Top	34-31	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
These are heady times for SMU. The Mustangs are 7-0 for the first time in 37 years and ranked 16th in the AP's Top 25 poll. That's the highest the Mustangs have been rated since 1985. The combination of that and the perception that Houston is a dead team after losing outright as 21-point road favorites to lowly Connecticut last week push this line to the two-touchdown mark. I'm stepping in at this point. Houston still has bowl aspirations. The Cougars also should get back QB Clayton Tune. He's a big upgrade on third-stringer Logan Holgorsen, who was behind center against Connecticut. Tune didn't play in that huge upset because of a hamstring injury. He is practicing this week and expected to play. The Cougars rank 22nd in rushing. They have the capability to play ball control preventing SMU's high octane offense from taking the field. This also is a big in-state rivalry and has recruting ramifications. The Cougars have revenge motivation, too. They were ranked 17th in the country when SMU beat them last season as 14-point home 'dogs.
10-23-19	Wolves +4 v. Nets	Top	127-126	Win	100	18 h 24 m	Show
I like the Nets and their coach, Kenny Atkinson. Let me be more precise, though. I like and prefer the Nets in an underdog role. They made a huge splash in free agency signing Kyrie Irving, DeAndre Jordan and Kevin Durant, who likely is out for this season. The Nets are getting ahead of themselves. I'm not sold on them being a better team than the Timberwolves. Certainly Minnesota will have the best big man on the court in Karl-Anthony Towns. The Timberwolves bring back the same team from last season. That's a plus because of the continuity. The Nets had good chemistry last season. Let's see if that continues and how things work now that they have Irving, who didn't turn out to be a good fit for Boston last season. It's not a plus either for the Nets that they spend some of their preseason in China. By contrast, Minnesota is under-the-radar right now. Timberwolves coach Ryan Saunders is just 33, the youngest coach in the NBA. He has the Timberwolves playing up-tempo and firing up 3-pointers. That's popular with his players. The Timberwolves don't take a backseat to the Nets in terms of talent with a healthy and rejuvenated Jeff Teague at point guard, wing players Andrew Wiggins and Robert Covington along with Towns, one of the best big men in the game.
10-21-19	Patriots v. Jets +10.5	Top	33-0	Loss	-130	121 h 7 m	Show
The Jets are a much different - and better - team with Sam Darnold at QB. They should be mentally ready to take on the Patriots off a confidence-building home victory against the Cowboys last week. Statistically speaking, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. Darnold has weapons, though, with Le'Veon Bell, deep threat Robbie Anderson and much underrated slot man Jamison Crowder. The Patriots' offense hasn't been that sharp. This has largely gone unnoticed because their defense has been so good and because of an easy schedule. New England, however, is banged up at wide receiver, deficient at tight end and weak at the offensive tackle spots. The Jets should be up for this game more than any other matchup all season being against their most hated division rival and at home on Monday night.
10-20-19	Cardinals v. Giants -3	Top	27-21	Loss	-100	90 h 46 m	Show
The Giants are home, have a huge scheduling advantage and get back Saquan Barkley and Evan Engram. Barkley is a top-three running back and I rate Engram as a top-five tight end. The Cardinals have a porous defense ranking among the bottom-four in several key statistical categories, including yards allowed, points and pass defense. The return of cornerback Patrick Peterson from suspension is a plus for the Cardinals, but doesn't move the needle nearly enough. The Cardinals are coming off a 34-33 home victory against the Falcons. The Cardinals achieved the victory when normally reliable veteran Matt Bryant missed an extra point after the Falcons scored a touchdown with less than two minutes left. The Cardinals nipped the Bengals at the gun on a field gun two weeks ago. The Falcons and Bengals are a combined 1-11. The spread would be much higher here if the Cardinals held a 0-5-1 mark instead of a far more respectable 2-3-1 record. This also is Arizona's longest trip of the season and it's at an early West Coast start time. The Cardinals are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 Eastern Standard Time games. The Giants are on extra rest having played last Thursday.
10-19-19	Kansas +21.5 v. Texas	Top	48-50	Win	100	32 h 50 m	Show
This line might make sense - it it were last year. Les Miles has made Kansas far more respectable. But even before Miles came on board the Jayhawks have given Texas trouble. The Longhorns defeated the Jayhawks, 24-17, last year failing to cover as 15 1/2-point road favorites. Texas beat Kansas by 15 points at home two seasons ago failing to cover as 32-point favorites and three years ago the Jayhawks stunned the Longhorns, 24-21, as 23 1/2-point home 'dogs. Kansas had a bye last week. The Jayhawks draw the Longhorns after Texas just had its annual Red River Shootout against arch-rival Oklahoma. The Longhorns are at TCU next week. So the spot clearly favors Kansas. Sam Ehlinger is one of the best QB's in the country. But I see the Jayhawks having the weapons to hang with Texas especially since the Longhorns have multiple defensive injuries. The Longhorns are giving up 453.3 yards per game, which ranks 111th. They have permitted an average of 31.6 points in their three Big 12 games. Kansas senior QB Carter Stanley ranks among the top 10 QB's statistically in Kansas history. He should be helped by a switch in offensive coordinators that has a more aggressive approach. Stanley has a pair of capable WR's in Andrew Parchment and Stephon Robinson Jr. plus one of the best running backs in the conference, Pooka Williams.
10-13-19	49ers v. Rams -3	Top	20-7	Loss	-120	54 h 28 m	Show
The Rams are feeling heat from the Seahawks and 49ers having lost two in a row. So this becomes a crucial game. Sean McVay is the best coach in the NFC. Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. The 49ers are not used to taking on opponents who are extremely motivated to play them - until now. San Francisco is much improved as its 4-0 record attests. But do note those victories have come against the Buccaneers, Bengals, Steelers and Browns. The combined record of those teams is 5-15. LA is on extra rest having played last Thursday. The Rams are 7-1 ATS when having a rest advantage under McVay. The 49ers, on the other hand, are on a short week coming off a great Monday night home win against the Browns. Lost in the glare of the 49ers' dismantling of the Browns, though, was two key injuries - fullback Kyle Juszcyk and offensive right tackle Mike McGlinchey. Both are out long-term. Juszcyk may be the best fullback in the league. Compounding McGlinchey's injury is San Francisco already is minus star offensive left tackle Joe Staley. Aaron Donald should be in for a monster game. The Rams' defense isn't as down as some may perceive. LA's offense has been turning the ball over, which has put its defense in difficult field position. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have that much starting QB experience. He's going to face a heavy pass rush without his starting tackles. I don't see him keeping up with a high caliber Rams offense that should be well-designed with nine days to prepare under QB guru McVay. Todd Gurley may not play, but the Rams have two other good running backs. One of the keys to McVay's success has been a 10-3 division record. The 49ers are 2-10 against NFC West foes under Kyle Shanahan.
10-13-19	Bengals +12.5 v. Ravens	Top	17-23	Win	100	96 h 45 m	Show
As bad as the Bengals are, the Ravens aren't nearly good enough to lay this big of a number in a division matchup. The Ravens' defense has surrendered 96 points in its last three games. They rank 29th in pass defense and are down several key members in their secondary, including Jimmy Smith and Tony Jefferson. It's become obvious how much Baltimore misses former defensive stalwarts Terrell Suggs and C.J. Mosley, both of whom departed via free agency. The Bengals have proven to be a feisty underdog covering five of the past six times in that role. They nearly beat Seattle and Buffalo straight-up on the road this season. Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS during its last five visits to Baltimore. The Ravens have failed to cover in their last five games and are 1-6 ATS the past seven times they have been favored. Their heavy reliance on running the ball makes them an especially poor choice to lay double-digits.
10-11-19	Virginia +2.5 v. Miami-FL	Top	9-17	Loss	-110	32 h 60 m	Show
Give me Virgina, the superior team that is on extra rest and taking points here. The Cavaliers have had two weeks to stew about their last game, a disappointing 35-20 loss to 10th-ranked Notre Dame. Virginia has an excellent dual threat QB in Bryce Perkins and a strong defense that ranks second in sacks with 24 and is 10th in total defense. I like Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall especially with extra prep time. Miami is on short rest having played last Saturday. The Hurricanes exerted a lot of energy in a valiant comeback from a four-touchdown deficit to lose, 42-35, to Virginia Tech. If you discount their game against non Division I opponent Bethune Cookman, the Hurricanes have been outscored on the season. The Hurricanes will be starting redshirt sophomore QB N'Kosi Perry. It's his first start for Miami this season. The Cavaliers defeated a better Miami team last season, 16-13, at home. The Hurricanes are 2-9 ATS against opponents with a winning record. Virginia has covered in its last four visits to Miami.
10-07-19	Browns +4 v. 49ers	Top	3-31	Loss	-115	118 h 47 m	Show
Burying the Ravens on the road last Sunday was huge for the Browns. Both from a confidence standpoint and also to reinforce their high talent level. Cleveland achieved that victory despite missing its starting cornerbacks, Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams. Both could return here. The 49ers can't match the Browns' skill position talent of Bakery Mayfield, Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry and Nick Chubb. Cleveland's offensive line has been a weak spot. But the 49ers are minus their top offensive lineman with left tackle Joe Staley out with a leg injury. Myles Garrett, who is in the argument for being the best pass rusher in the AFC, could be in line for a huge game. The 49ers are just 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games since making the move to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. They haven't covered as home chalk in five years. I respect Kyle Shanahan. I think the 49ers are much improved. But they are not a playoff contender. Cleveland is. The Browns are the superior team catching points. The 49ers have a weak home field. So getting points is a nice bonus.
10-06-19	Bears -4 v. Raiders	Top	21-24	Loss	-110	141 h 45 m	Show
The Raiders are 2-8 in their road games under Jon Gruden. They have been outscored by 130 points in those games. Statistically, the Patriots have the best defense in the NFL. But considering the caliber of opponents the Patriots have played compared to the Bears, I would go with the Bears being the No. 1 defensive team. I can't see the Raiders putting up many points here even if the Bears are minus Roquan Smith and Akiem Hicks. Khalil Mack is sure to be fired-up playing against his former team. I actually like the Bears' offense more with Chase Daniel at QB instead of Mitch Trubisky. Daniel is the more polished, experienced and accurate passer. He doesn't have to do anything fancy just play with in his means for the Bears to roll past the Raiders. Minnesota buried the Raiders, 34-14, at home two weeks ago. The Bears just got done defeating the Vikings. This marks Oakland's third straight away contest. The game is being played in London, but time-wise it comes out to be a morning game for the Raiders. The Raiders are 1-6 SU and ATS the past seven times on the road during an early start time.
10-05-19	UMass v. Florida International -26	Top	0-44	Win	100	48 h 47 m	Show
UMass won its first game of the season last week beating Akron at home as a 9 1/2-point underdog, 37-29. The Minutemen are terrible, though, and I want to fade them off that victory. UMass had lost its previous four games by 34 points to Coastal Carolina, by 35 points to Charlotte, by 25 points to Southern Illinois and by 27 points to Rutgers. Florida International was idle last week. The Golden Panthers have covered the past four times following a bye. They are 3-0 under Butch Davis after a bye. The Golden Panthers can't slip here if they want to have a realistic shot of a bowl bid. Davis has stressed that to his team. James Morgan looked good for Florida International in a loss to Louisiana Tech going 29-for-41 with 394 yards passing and three touchdowns in its last game. Morgan had been out with an ankle injury. Morgan entered the season as one of the better QB's in Conference USA. UMass is starting third-stringer Michael Curtis at QB. The Minutemen are in rebuild mode starting seven true freshmen, most of any FBS team. UMass ranks 115th in yards gained and is second-to-last in the nation in yards allowed and points given up.
10-02-19	Sharks v. Golden Knights -1.5	Top	1-4	Win	165	24 h 49 m	Show
The Golden Knights have been pointing to this matchup after losing to the Sharks in the playoff last season in a bitter and controversial series. Las Vegas gave an indication of this burying the San Jose, 5-1, this past Sunday in front of a sold out home crowd in the final preseason game. The Sharks haven't been sharp during preseason going 1-5. San Jose will be without suspended forward Evander Kane, too. I believe this is a kill spot for Las Vegas. So taking a big plus price on the puck line makes more sense to me than laying heavy juice on the side.
09-30-19	Bengals v. Steelers -3	Top	3-27	Win	100	18 h 49 m	Show
This matchup has lost much of its star power with no Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown and A.J. Green. It's going to be decided in the trenches - and that's where the Steelers hold a monster edge to go with home field and the mental confidence of having defeated Cincinnati eight straight times. The Bengals can't run the ball, nor stop the run. That's a very bad combination especially when playing Pittsburgh on the road. The Bengals are last in the NFL in rushing and second from the bottom in run defense. The Steelers aren't going to be fancy here. They don't need to be. Mason Rudolph should play better in his second NFL start and first at home. He doesn't need to play great, just steady behind a very good offensive line. Pittsburgh defense will be fired up. It played very well at San Francisco last week. Rookie Devin Bush gives the Steelers' needed linebacker speed that they haven't had since Ryan Shazier was injured. Andy Dalton needs weapons to succeed. Instead he's saddled with a bottom-five offensive line. Bad offensive lines don't travel well. Cincinnati has lost its last seven away matchups.
09-28-19	Central Michigan +17 v. Western Michigan	Top	15-31	Win	100	26 h 13 m	Show
Central Michigan is much improved from last year's 1-11 season under new coach Jim McElwain. This improvement has come during the Chippewas' last two games, a 45-24 home win against Akron and a 17-12 road loss to Miami as a 30 1/2-point road 'dog. The Chippewas won the time of possession battle against the Hurricanes and held them to 1.6 yards rushing and 303 total yards. The Chippewas can control clock, too, versus Western Michigan in this Mid-American Conference rivalry matchup. Central Michigan's has found the right quarterback in David Moore. He's started the past two games and has accounted for 533 passing yards and three touchdowns, two via the air, with one interception. The Chippewas are not the same team that was steamrolled three weeks ago by powerful Wisconsin, 61-0, in Madison. Moore didn't start that game. These two teams are much closer than this spread. Western Michigan was hammered by a Big Ten, too, three weeks ago losing to Michigan State, 51-17. The Broncos lost to Syracuse, 52-33, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs last Saturday. Western Michigan is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games. The Broncos will be without one of their key players, injured cornerback D'Wayne Eskridge. He also is sixth on the team in receiving yards. The Chippewas have covered nine of their last 13 games and have gone 4-1-1 ATS the past six times meeting the Broncos.
09-27-19	San Jose State v. Air Force -18	Top	24-41	Loss	-114	56 h 2 m	Show
San Jose State intercepted five passes from pass-crazy Arkansas in stunning the Razorbacks, 31-24, as 20-point road 'dogs this past Saturday. It was the first time the Spartans ever defeated an SEC foe and their first victory against any power conference opponent since 2006. You can count on one hand and be missing a finger to add up the number of times San Jose State has beaten a power conference team this century. Some of the San Jose players and coaches called it the greatest win in San Jose football history. Heady stuff for the Spartans. The school and the players celebrated in grand style with a campus rally on Monday. That's a rarity and a big deal at San Jose State. The Spartans had two wins the previous two years entering this season. Now, though, the Spartans have to travel into high altitude on a short week after returning 1,800 miles back to San Jose from Arkansas. They draw what should be an aroused Air Force team that lost to Boise State last Friday. The Falcons couldn't sustain their road victory against Colorado two weeks ago when they fell to Boise State. Now they are home again. The Spartans aren't coming up with five interceptions again. Air Force may not even throw the ball five times. The Falcons are the nation's fourth-leading rushing team. They are a physical, option-attack team that is well drilled and disciplined. It's a terrible matchup for San Jose coming off its great victory. The Falcons are tough defensively, too. Only 19 teams surrender fewer yards per game than Air Force.
09-22-19	Raiders v. Vikings -7.5	Top	14-34	Win	100	130 h 54 m	Show
Jon Gruden doesn't fool me. The Raiders are bad on both sides of the ball. Just like last season. They lack skill position talent and their defense is bottom tier. The Raiders don't travel well either losing 15 of their last 17 road/neutral sites matchups going 3-13-1 ATS in those games. The Vikings have one of the best home fields in football covering 70 percent of their last 54 home games. Note this is an early start time, too. Bad news for the West Coast Raiders. Dalvin Cook is a premier running back. If the Raiders load the box to stop him they become vulnerable to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. The Vikings are hungry for a win after losing to the Packers last week.
09-21-19	Louisville v. Florida State -6.5	Top	24-35	Win	100	47 h 50 m	Show
With just a one-point overtime victory against Louisiana Monroe, Florida State is desperate for a victory. The Seminoles are 1-2, but could be 3-0 having blown fourth-quarter leads against Virginia and Boise State. Florida State has the athletes and talent especially on offense. James Blackman has come through at quarterback and Cam Akers is one of the best running backs in the country. Scott Satterfield is doing a good job in his first season at Louisville. But he has a major rebuild job to do. The Cardinals are coming off easy wins against two overmatched opponents, Eastern Kentucky and Western Kentucky. This is a step-up game for the Cardinals and it's also an off-surface for them. While I think the Cardinals are improved and on the right track under Satterfield, I don't see them staying within a touchdown of highly motivated Florida State.
09-20-19	Utah -3.5 v. USC	Top	23-30	Loss	-103	75 h 31 m	Show
If USC's Clay Helton isn't the worst head football coach in a major conference than he's certainly in the discussion for that dubious distinction. The Trojans are 7-19-1 ATS (27 percent) in their last 27 games. Utah defeated USC, 41-28, last year with the score not fully indicative of how much the Utes dominated. Utah built a 34-14 lead, had 17 more first downs and nearly 350 more yards than USC. The Utes have the two best skill position players on the field in QB Tyler Huntley and Zack Moss, one of the best running backs in the nation. The Trojans are starting freshman Kedon Slovis at quarterback due to injuries and transfers. Slovis had a passer rating of just 54 and was picked off three times in a road overtime loss to BYU this past Saturday. Utah met BYU in its opener and won, 30-12, on the road. The unbeaten Utes have covered 12 of their last 17 road matchups.
09-19-19	Houston +5.5 v. Tulane	Top	31-38	Loss	-110	33 h 33 m	Show
I'm not buying into any Tulane hype, or that the Green Wave should be a favorite against Houston. The Cougars have one of the top dual threat QB's in the nation in D'Eriq King, who accounted for 50 touchdowns last season and is getting more comfortable operating Dana Holgorsen's offense. Tulane's Justin McMillan is better than some past Tulane QB's and he has a deep group of running backs and wide receivers. But King has plenty of help, too, especially with the return of running back Patrick Carr. Tulane just played Missouri State this past Saturday. That was a cupcake opponent. Houston's statistics are skewed, especially defensively, by having already played high-powered fourth-ranked Oklahoma and 19th-ranked Washington State. So this is a drop in class for the Cougars, who covered against both of those Top-25 opponents. The Cougars rolled past Tulane, 48-17, at home last season. The Cougars were favored by seven in that game. During the previous four seasons from 2014-2017, the Cougars were favored by eight, 27, 21 and 17 points against Tulane. Houston has covered in six of its last seven trips to Tulane. Now the Green Wave not only is expected to beat the Cougars but cover a mid-size margin doing it. I'm not drinking that Kool-Aid.
09-15-19	Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders	Top	28-10	Win	100	44 h 45 m	Show
Credit to the Raiders for beating Denver in Week 1. Jon Gruden had a good game plan and his defense played hard. But now the Raiders go from Joe Flacco, who I rank with Eli Manning as the worst starting QB in the NFL, to the best, Patrick Mahomes. The Raiders defense is porous and they are now without injured safety Johnathan Abram. The Chiefs should have no problem moving the ball up and down on the Raiders. They don't need Tyreek Hill against such a weak caliber defense. Kansas City averaged 37.5 points against the Raider last season with Mahomes throwing for six touchdowns and averaging 9.3 yards per attempt. Oakland isn't going to be able to keep up with Kansas City. Derek Carr is just a glorified dink-and-dunker. I'm not impressed with his skill position weapons either with Antonio Brown having left. Carr has been picked off nine times in his career by the Chiefs. The Raiders are missing their starting guards. They are one of the few teams that could make the Chiefs defense look good.
09-15-19	Seahawks v. Steelers -3.5	Top	28-26	Loss	-110	116 h 25 m	Show
I want the Steelers at home going for me in this spot. Pittsburgh laid an egg at New England on national television this past Sunday night. Ben Roethlisberger has a strong history of playing much better at home. The Steelers' offensive line is elite. James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are more than adequate replacements from the departed Le'Veon Bell and prima donna Antonio Brown. Seattle is down this season. The Seahawks were life and death to beat a bad Bengals team at home opening week. Seattle is 3-6 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in the first two weeks of the season during the past four plus years. The Seahawks are down because they no longer have their fabled Legion of Boom secondary. All of those guys are gone. Their best defensive lineman, Jarran Reed, is suspended. Seattle is a ground-and-pound team. That style isn't going to work on the road against the Steelers, who won't lack motivation after last Sunday's humiliation to the Patriots. Pittsburgh ranked sixth in run defense and were tied for first in sacks last season. Russell Wilson lost his top wide receiver with Doug Baldwin retiring.
09-14-19	Maryland v. Temple +7.5	Top	17-20	Win	100	24 h 60 m	Show
Maryland is being overrated in this spot following blowout victories against Howard, an FCS bottom feeder, and Syracuse. Both of those easy wins came at home. The Terrapins now hit the road to play a very physical, rested and well-coached opponent. The Owls had a bye last week giving them two weeks to prepare for this nonconference matchup. Temple is averaging just a shade below nine wins per year during the past four seasons. Temple's offense looked good in its opener, a 56-12 romp over Bucknell at home. The Owls may have the best secondary in the American Athletic Conference. The Owls are strong at linebacker, too. They have their top seven tacklers from last season all back. The Owls have covered 11 of the last 14 times they've been home 'dogs winning six of those games outright. A similar situational spot happened last year when the teams met in Week 3. Maryland played Temple that week sporting a 2-0 mark, with one of those victories being an impressive upset win against Texas. The game was at Maryland. Temple won, 35-14. The Owls outgained the Terps by 234 yards.
09-09-19	Broncos +1 v. Raiders	Top	16-24	Loss	-110	148 h 12 m	Show
Von Miller and Bradley Chubb may be the best pass rushing tandem in the NFL. They are in line for big games against a depleted Raiders offensive line that won't have their starting guards and likely going with untested Kolton Miller at left tackle. It's hard to imagine the Raiders getting a ground attack going against Denver minus guards Richie Incognito, who is suspended, and Gabe Jackson, out with a knee injury. I'm not high on Raiders rookie running back, Josh Jacobs. Vic Fangio is an upper level defensive coach and he's had plenty of time to game plan. The Raiders have a bottom-five defense. Indications are that the Broncos' two best playmakers, running back Philip Lindsay and Emmanuel Sanders, are back to health. That's all Joe Flacco needs to game manage a victory here for Denver.
09-07-19	Nevada v. Oregon -23.5	Top	6-77	Win	100	75 h 16 m	Show
Oregon has won 14 straight home openers. The Ducks should have no problem extending that streak to 15 in a row hosting Nevada. Justin Herbert is in the short discussion for best QB in the country. He should find little resistance from a porous Nevada secondary. Oregon is off a brutal 27-21 loss to Auburn in which the Tigers scored the game-winning TD on a 26-yard pass with nine seconds left. Oregon has Montana on deck. So the Ducks should be fully focused for this matchup ready to take their frustrations out on a much weaker foe than Auburn. Nevada is in the opposite spot. The Wolf Pack pulled out a home victory against Purdue as a double-digit 'dog on a 56-yard field goal at the gun in their opener. Purdue had a 14-point fourth-quarter lead against the Wolf Pack, who couldn't stop the Boilermakers' passing attack. The Boilermakers were done in by a 5-0 turnover ratio. That's not likely to happen to a Reno opponent two straight weeks. The Wolf Pack aren't nearly as good as the Ducks and are in a huge letdown spot. Nevada nipped Oregon State at home early in the season last year and then fell, 63-44, on the road to Toledo the following week. Look for a similar pattern here.
09-06-19	Marshall +12.5 v. Boise State	Top	7-14	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
Boise State often is overpriced when playing at home. That's the case here especially with the Broncos coming off an upset road victory against Florida State in their opener last week. The Broncos have failed to cover in 16 of their last 23 home games. Freshman QB Hank Bachmeier spearheaded a tremendous Boise State comeback against the Seminoles as the Broncos rallied from a 31-13 deficit. The Broncos, though, are in a big letdown spot and Bachmeier will be challenged by a strong Marshall secondary. The Thundering Herd get a rare chance to play on national TV. They may be the best team in Conference USA. While Bachmeier gets a lot of attention for his heroics, Marshall sophomore QB Isiah Green looked good in his team's 56-17 win against Virginia Military Institute last week. Green is backed by a deep of running backs and receivers.
09-02-19	Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville	Top	35-17	Push	0	30 h 24 m	Show
Notre Dame is going to get its points in this one. Louisville's defense was terrible last season giving up an average of 44.1 points and 483.5 yards a game. The Cardinals ranked among the bottom-four in those important defensive categories. They are on their fourth defensive coordinator in four years. Making it worse, the Cardinals also got poor punting last season. Notre Dame averaged better than 36 points a game last year after Ian Book became its starting QB in Week 4. I can't see Louisville keeping up. The Cardinals have many questions on the offensive side of the ball. New coach Scott Satterfield seems like a good hire based on his track record at Appalachian State. But it's going to take time to fix the huge mess Bobby Petrino left him. Drawing Notre Dame for their opener is a real bad break for the Cardinals, who have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 home games and are 1-11-1 ATS in their last 13 nonleague games.
09-01-19	Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma	Top	31-49	Win	100	20 h 44 m	Show
I'm not buying that Oklahoma is more than three touchdowns better than Houston. In fact, I like Houston QB D'Eriq King more than Sooners QB Jalen Hurts. I regard King as the top QB in college football especially now that he has Dana Holgorsen as his head coach. King has the rare opportunity to showcase his skills in front of a national TV audidence with the game on ABC. Holgorsen is an offensive guru. He was head coach at West Virginia last year. The Mountaineers played Oklahoma last season and narrowly lost, 59-56. The Sooners shouldn't be laying this high of a number to such a strong offense. Oklahoma was last in the nation in pass defense in 2018 while ranking at the bottom in the Big 12 in scoring defense and total defense. The Sooners also have a question mark at kicker as the FBS' all-time leading scorer among kickers, Austin Seibert, has left. This is going to be a shootout of the highest proportions. Houston was very weak against the run last season. And that was with stud Ed Oliver. But the Cougars have defensive line depth, experience at the safety spots and get to go against the Sooners in their first game breaking in four new offensive line starters.
08-31-19	Virginia Tech v. Boston College +4	Top	28-35	Win	100	172 h 41 m	Show
Virginia Tech's defense was historically bad under long-time defensive coordinator Bud Foster last year. The Hokies should be improved as they can't get much worse. But it's going to take time. The Hokies gave up 31 points a game last season, which ranked 85th. They were 98th in yards allowed and their run defense ranked 106th. BC has one of the top running backs in the nation, AJ Dillon. He's fresh and healthy, something he wasn't last year. Eagles QB Anthony Brown has experience and is capable of running the offense. He has improved as a passer. The Eagles won, 31-21, against Virginia Tech last season on the road. I do think the Hokies will be better, but this isn't a good matchup for them and it's the first game. So I'll gladly accept these points.
08-30-19	Purdue -9.5 v. Nevada	Top	31-34	Loss	-110	250 h 47 m	Show
If I could pick one wide receiver to have on my college football team it would be Purdue's Rondale Moore. He's the most exciting player in college football in my view. This is a perfect storm of key factors that point to Purdue beating Nevada by double-digits. Moore heads up a very strong group of Purdue receivers. Even tight end Brycen Hopkins is very good for the Boilermakers. Senior QB Elijah Sindelar is underrated at this point. He's going to have a big season with so many talented receiving targets. Nevada has a very weak secondary. The Wolf Pack also are untested at quarterback, smaller than Purdue and weaker in the trenches. The Boilermakers have been pointing to this game for a long time after being humiliated, 63-14, by Auburn in the Music City Bowl. Purdue has won each of its road openers under Jeff Brohm beating Nebraska, 42-28, last year and Missouri, 35-3, two seasons ago. Those are better teams than Nevada. The Boilermakers can't misfire here knowing Vanderbilt and TCU are up next for them before they enter Big Ten action. So expect a strong, focused effort from the better team that should result in an easy victory.
08-28-19	Twins -1.5 v. White Sox	Top	8-2	Win	100	18 h 57 m	Show
The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank No. 2 in runs. The White Sox are 28th in runs and 26th in homers. Expect the Twins to pad their homer lead with the wind blowing out strong to left field at 13-16 mph and facing 33-year-old Ross Detwiler, who has surrendered 15 homers in 47 1/3 innings this season. Minnesota is 41-22 on the road. That's the second-most away wins in the majors. The Twins are 8-2 in Jake Odorizzi's last 10 road starts. Odorizzi is pitching on six days rest. That's important since he is 5-0 with a 1.00 ERA when he's pitched on extra rest this year.
08-23-19	Browns v. Bucs +3	Top	12-13	Win	100	58 h 10 m	Show
Beating preseason football is about finding teams who care meeting those who don't while also getting value on the line. This pattern fits the Buccaneers right now in their Friday home game against the Browns. Tampa Bay has been preparing for this matchup like it were a regular-season game. Jameis Winston figures to see his most action. The Buccaneers have a deep set of quality wide receivers and a preseason superstar in backup quarterback Ryan Griffin, who has thrown for 531 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions in Tampa Bay's first two preseason contests. Browns coach Freddie Kitchens said he won't reveal how much his starters are going to play Friday, but indications are the Browns won't be treating this exhibition as serious as Tampa Bay. Cleveland is sitting at 2-0 with nothing to prove. The Browns aren't likely to use Odell Beckham Jr. and Myles Garrett because they aren't 100 percent. Cleveland is a false favorite here based on perception with its unbeaten preseason record and tremendous hype. The Bucs are home and the likely team to treat this game more serious than the Browns.
08-22-19	Blue Jays v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	2-3	Loss	-124	20 h 43 m	Show
The Dodgers simply don't lose at home. They have won 79 percent of their last 57 home games going 45-12. No baseball team can match that. Toronto went through its bullpen trying to beat the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Blue Jays came close, but lost, 2-1, in 10 innings. I don't see the Blue Jays being able to hang against the Dodgers a second straight time in a pitching matchup of rookie Jacob Waguespack versus Kenta Maeda. Prior to Wednesday, the Dodgers' last six victories were by an average of 8.3 runs. Waguespack has a 4.20 ERA. The Dodgers rank in the top four in runs and homers. Maeda has a history of pitching much better at Dodger Stadium. That history has held up this season where he is 6-3 with a 2.84 ERA at home. LA has won eight of his past 11 home starts. Toronto has dropped 14 of its last 17 interleague games, including the past eight when going against a righty starter.
08-20-19	White Sox v. Twins -1.5	Top	4-14	Win	100	17 h 59 m	Show
Returning home following a 5-1 road trip, the Twins were knocked off by the White Sox, 6-4, on Monday. It was just the fourth time in the last 15 meetings the White Sox have defeated Minnesota. I don't see the Twins losing a second straight time to Chicago at home. White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez had been pitching well - until this past Thursday when he was tagged for five earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. The Twins lead the majors in homers and rank second in runs. Nelson Cruz, Minnesota's second-leading home run hitter with 32, has recovered from a wrist injury and is back in the lineup. Lopez has struggled versus Minnesota in his career with a 5.46 ERA in five starts. Twins starter Michael Pineda has been amazing consistent yielding three earned runs or fewer in 15 of his last 16 starts. Pineda has a 3.08 lifetime ERA against the White Sox in six starts. Minnesota has won by more than one run during 10 of its last 11 victories.
08-15-19	Raiders v. Cardinals -3	Top	33-26	Loss	-110	28 h 32 m	Show
Barnum & Bailey otherwise known as the Oakland Raiders' traveling circus visits the desert Thursday. Arizona hosts Oakland looking to go 2-0 in preseason under rookie NFL head coach Kliff Kingsbury. The Cardinals opened with a win and cover beating the Chargers, 17-3, at home last Thursday. Kingsbury certainly wouldn't mind cheering up long-suffering Cardinal fans with another home victory as this will be Arizona's final preseason home game. The Cardinals conclude preseason with road matchups against the Vikings and Broncos. The Raiders have a huge disadvantage playing on the road in a short week after defeating the Rams, 14-3, at home this past Saturday night. It's been a crazy week for the Raiders with Hard Knocks filming and Antonio Brown hogging headlines with his insane antics. So the Cardinals check the boxes when it comes to situation, being the more focused team and motivation in laying positive groundwork for a new coach. Another key in preseason is quarterback rotation. I like what the Cardinals have compared to the Raiders. Kyler Murray played a series last week. He is expected to play longer against the Raiders as the Cardinal need to get their rookie signal-caller more actual game experience. The Raiders don't need to do that with their starter, Derek Carr. I like Murray better than Carr given Murray's mobility and high ceiling. I also prefer Brett Hundley, Arizona's second-string quarterback, much more than Oakland backup quarterbacks Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. Hundley is one of the better preseason quarterbacks. He was 10 of 14 for 104 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers last week. The immobile Glennon was picked off twice without throwing a touchdown pass in his 2019 preseason debut last Thursday. As for Peterman, the less said the better. He is not only one of the worst quarterbacks in the league, but in NFL history. This is the start - and possible - end of Peterman's NFL career after two seasons with Buffalo where he compiled passer ratings of 30.7 and 38.4 with a 3-to-12 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
08-10-19	Rams +5 v. Raiders	Top	3-14	Loss	-110	10 h 51 m	Show
There is a time when Blake Bortles is useful. That time is now. Bortles is now the backup quarterback for the Rams. He's going to see extended playing time against the Raiders. Bortles loves Sean McVay's scheme and system. The Rams will be holding out their star skill position players. Bortles, though, has worked extensively with the second unit. So he already has a rapport with Mike Thomas and JoJo Natson. The Rams have an underrated running back, rookie Darrell Henderson. He could make his mark in this game as the Raiders' defense doesn't look much better than last season's unti that gave up an NFL-worst 29.2 points per game and had only 13 sacks. The teams have held joint practices the past couple of days and the Rams have come away as the far superior team, which they are. The Rams beat the Raiders, 19-15, at home during preseason last year. The Raiders also have been distracted by the filming of Hard Knocks and Antonio Brown's ridiculous behavior.
08-02-19	Ottawa +7.5 v. Montreal	Top	30-27	Win	100	9 h 26 m	Show
The Alouettes are on a three-game win streak and favored for the first time this season. This isn't a little number either. Montreal hasn't won four straight games since 2014. I'm not sold that the Alouettes can cover a touchdown. They are off a bye. But I don't see that as a good thing. It can slow their momentum. It's a big plus for the Redblacks if they get starting quarterback Dominque Davis back for this game. I think Davis plays. But if he doesn't, I like Ottawa at this price anyways. Backup QB Jonathon Jennings was a lot better in his second start completing 15 of 18 passes and the Redblacks defense has looked better. Ottawa has covered 70 percent of its past 37 road games and is 6-0 ATS the past six times playing at Montreal.
08-01-19	Hamilton v. Saskatchewan -2.5	Top	19-24	Win	100	33 h 40 m	Show
I don't see Hamilton beating Saskatchewan on the road after losing its starting quarterback, Jeremiah Mosaoli, for the season this past Friday after Masoli suffered a torn ACL. The Tiger-Cats have to turn to second-year QB Dane Evans. The Roughriders are back home after a pair of victories against British Columbia. They have momentum and revenge for a 23-17 road loss to Hamilton opening week. The Roughriders have dominated the Tiger-Cats at home going 17-4-1 ATS. Saskatchewan QB Cody Fajardo is ahead of his counterpart Evans. Fajardo has made five CFL starts and is coming off a 21-for-26 passing game and 46 yards rushing.
07-25-19	Calgary -5 v. Ottawa	Top	17-16	Loss	-105	50 h 22 m	Show
I like Calgary in a revenge spot for an opening week, 32-28, loss to Ottawa as a 9-point home favorite. The Stampeders have won three of their last four games since then. Their defense has improved giving up an average of 18.6 points a game during their past three games. Nick Arbuckle has been doing a solid job at quarterback for Calgary replacing injured Bo Levi Mitchell. Ottawa really is struggling offensively scoring 14, 19 and one point during its last three games. The RedBlacks have a long injury list headed by quarterback Dominique Davis. Minus Davis and wide receiver R.J. Harris, Ottawa was held to 12 first downs and 175 yards in its 31-1 loss to Winnipeg last Friday. I don't see the RedBlacks solving their problems, especially at quarterback, in time for this matchup.
07-12-19	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	8-9	Loss	-126	17 h 39 m	Show
I want the Astros going for me coming off a 5-0 shutout loss to Lance Lynn and the Rangers Thursday night. The Astros are back healthy with the exception of Carlos Correa. They drop way down in class going from facing Lynn to journeyman Jesse Chavez, who I consider more of a relief pitcher than starter Chavez will be making his fourth start. He's getting worse having allowed seven earned in his last two starts spanning 11 innings. He is off a season-high 90-pitch count. The Rangers have one of the worst bullpens in the majors, while the Astros' relief corps is among the best. Astros starter Gerrit Cole was the AL Pitcher of the Month in June. He is 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA in his last eight starts with 70 strikeouts in 51 innings. The Rangers are really missing injured Hunter Pence. They are averaging just 3.7 runs in their last 11 games discounting a 9-3 Fourth of July victory against the Angels. Each of the Rangers' past six losses have come by more than one run.
07-03-19	Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5	Top	4-5	Loss	-115	18 h 9 m	Show
The Dodgers are just too tough especially at home where they have won 43 of their last 55 games. That's a winning percentage of 78 percent. LA is 9-3 in Walker Buehler's last 12 home games. Buehler is pitching on extra rest. The Dodgers are 9-1 the past 10 times Buehler has pitched on five days rest. Buehler faced the Diamondbacks a month ago holding them to one run in eight innings while giving up two hits with no walks and 11 strikeouts. Arizona starter Merrill Kelly has a 4.99 road ERA. He is 0-2 with a 5.29 ERA in his last three starts. The Dodgers' bullpen has been pitching much better than the Diamondbacks' bullpen during the last few weeks. Arizona closer Greg Holland blew a save Tuesday night by walking four straight batters.
06-30-19	Dodgers -1.5 v. Rockies	Top	10-5	Win	100	10 h 30 m	Show
There is a Dodgers starter who is capable of pitching well at Coors Field. That starter is Kenta Maeda and he's pitching today. Lifetime against the Rockies, Maeda is 6-3 with a 2.30 ERA. Maeda is 5-1 with a 3.00 ERA at Coors Field. Colorado starter Chi Chi Gonzalez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. This is only his second big league appearance since 2016. Gonzalez gave up three runs on six hits and four walks in five innings against the Giants on the road this past Thursday. Gonzalez still has a ways to go to get rid of his considerable rust. He goes from a strong pitcher's park in San Francisco to making his second big league start in three years at Coors against one of the best and deepest offenses in baseball. So I see this as a kill spot for the Dodgers, who have lost two in a row to Colorado. If you discount yesterday's 5-3 loss to the Rockies, the Dodgers are averaging 10 runs and nearly three homers a game during their previous five games at Coors.
06-22-19	Twins -1.5 v. Royals	Top	5-3	Win	100	9 h 29 m	Show
Danny Duffy sits unclaimed in the free agent pool in my 12-team American League Rotisserie league. A couple of owners, myself included, picked him up only to discard him after a brief trial period. The unamimous conclusion is Duffy isn't effective anymore. He wasn't good last season with a 4.88 ERA and he's not good this year with a 4.64 ERA. Duffy is going through another bad stretch with a 7.32 ERA in his last four starts. Now Duffy draws the top offense in baseball. The Royals are 5-13 in Duffy's last 18 starts. Kansas City is 1-7 the past eight times Duffy has faced an above .500 team at home. Kansas City is 15-24 at home. Minnesota is 25-13 on the road. It's a big reason why the Twins have the best record in the majors. The Twins' bullpen advantage was on full display when they came from behind to beat the Royals Friday night. Now Minnesota has a monster starting pitching edge with Jose Berrios taking on Duffy. Berrios is an elite level starter, who unlike Duffy, is in great current form with a 1.31 ERA in three starts this month. Minnesota is 12-4 in Berrios' last 16 starts, including winning his past five road starts. It shouldn't be too much to ask the Twins, who will get nine innings of at bats, to defeat the Royals by more than one run so we avoid laying such heavy juice.
06-20-19	Twins -1.5 v. Royals	Top	1-4	Loss	-113	16 h 42 m	Show
There are four American League teams who are terrible this season - Orioles, Royals, Tigers and Blue Jays. They are teams you would like to fade every day if you could, but the oddsmaker makes that hard to do by assigning heavy juice to their opponent. Baseball being baseball it's not responsible money management to lay huge prices. The trick to getting around this is the run line where you are confident of beating these bad teams by more than one run. I see that here with the visiting Twins in a pitching matchup of Jake Odorizzi versus Glenn Sparkman. Odorizzi is have a magical season with a 10-game win streak and 2.24 ERA. Minnesota is 14-3 in his last 17 starts. Odorizzi is backed by the best offense in the majors. Minnesota ranks No. 1 in runs and homers. The Royals are at their worse going against upper echelon teams. Minnesota has the best record in the American League at 48-24 for a .658 winning percentage. The Royals have lost 50 of the last 62 times when going against a foe with a win percentage above .600. Sparkman isn't very good and he's been downright terrible against the Twins with an 0-3 record and 6.75 ERA in his career against them. The Twins just got to see Sparkman this past Satureday and scored five runs off him in five innings. Kansas City ranks 25th in runs and 26th in homers. The Royals also could be without arguably their second-best player, shortstop Adalberto Mondesi. He leads the majors by a wide margin in steals with 27. Thursday Free Play A's plus $1.02 hosting Rays Tampa Bay is a good road team. They Rays also have a solid starter going in Charle Morton. So why go against them? Three reasons: Price, spot and Frankie Montas. The Rays find themselves in a tough situation. They just were swept in New York by the Yankees, a huge letdown for them considering that was a showdown for the AL East Division lead. Tampa Bay was outscored 21-4 by the Yankees in the three-game series. The Rays have lost seven of their last nine games and have to travel from the East Coast to the West Coast. The last time the Rays were on West Coast time was early April. AL East teams often struggle when playing the A's in Oakland. They are used to playing in hitter's parks. The A's, who are 22-17 at home, play in a pitcher's park that has strange dimensions. It is not a popular venue for opposing teams. I like the righthanded Morton. I just like Montas better. Montas has become an All-Star this season giving up three or fewer runs in 13 of his 14 starts. His swinging strike rate has gone from 8.6 percent last year to 11 percent. The Rays have the added disadvantage of never having faced him. Morton is coming off a subpar start where he allowed four earned runs and two homers in six innings against the Angels this past Saturday. Oakland has won six of its last seven games against a righy starter.
06-16-19	Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5	Top	12-0	Loss	-108	11 h 48 m	Show
Toronto has much to celebrate with the Raptors. Toronto has nothing to celebrate, though, with the Blue Jays, losers of 17 of their last 22 games. The Astros have blasted the overmatched Blue Jays, 22-4, in the first two games of this series. I'm expecting the Astros to manhandle Toronto once again so have no qualms about laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line to reduce the heavy juice. Houston is averaging 8.7 runs in its last four games. Each of Toronto's last 10 defeats have been by more than one run. The pitching matchup is Trent Thornton, who has a 4.78 ERA, facing Brad Peacock, who is 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven starts with 45 strikeouts in 40 1/3 innings during this span. The Astros are 22-8 in Peacock's last 30 starts, including 6-1 this season during his home starts.
06-07-19	Raptors v. Warriors -4.5	Top	105-92	Loss	-104	13 h 59 m	Show
Perhaps the Raptors do win the NBA Finals. But I don't see the Warriors going down a second straight time at home especially with Klay Thompson expected to play. Call it a rhythm or zig-zag play, but the Warriors are due to shoot better in this series. The Raptors are fat and happy after upsetting the Warriors, 123-109, in Game 3 on Wednesday and knowing Kevin Durant remains out. Before pouring dirt over the Warriors, let's remember just two games ago in Game 2 at Toronto. The Warriors held the Raptors to 37.2 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. The result was a 109-104 Golden State victory. I see this Game 4 matchup resembling that Game 2. The Warriors have the big-game NBA Finals-pedigree, a powerful situational edge being home down 2-1 and the quality defense to clamp down on the Raptors, who have been getting far better shooting games from a number of players than what was realistically expected from them.
05-30-19	Warriors +1 v. Raptors	Top	109-118	Loss	-105	82 h 56 m	Show
I give Toronto tremendous credit for overcoming Milwaukee in the Eastern Conference Finals. I also believe the Raptors have the best player on the court in Kawhi Leonard. But Toronto is not in Golden State's class. The Warriors are a level higher. Disagree? Look at the series price. That should tell you what the oddsmaker believes. So I am not buying the Raptors opening a favorite in Game 1 of this championship series. The Warriors know they must win at least one road game to take this series. They will be fully prepared to give a strong effort in this opener. They have had extra prep time from sweeping the Trail Blazers, which helps Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson get healthy. The Raptors lack the Warriors' Championship Series experience having never been to this stage before. You wonder if they still might be on Cloud 9 after taking out the Bucks. The Warriors are 7-3 ATS when playing on three days rest or more. The Raptors are 1-8 ATS in that situation. Golden State always gets off to a good start in the playoffs winning 18 of 19 Game 1's under Steve Kerr, including going 3-0 this season beating the Clippers, Rockets and Trail Blazers by a combined 43 points in its series openers. Toronto, by contrast, lost Game 1 to the Magic and Bucks. There has been some sentiment towards Toronto because the Warriors weren't that sharp despite sweeping the Trail Blazers and Kevin Durant won't be in action. The Warriors have adjusted to Duran't absence, though. Curry and Thompson are shooting more and their bench play has picked up. Golden State's defense has been solid, too. The loss of Durant isn't enough to go against the Warrors at this price point.
05-23-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	105-99	Loss	-107	21 h 31 m	Show
Look, you either believe in the Bucks, or you don't. I do - especially when they are home like here. Milwaukee had the best regular season mark both SU (straight-up) and ATS (against the spread). It has been the same in the playoffs where the Bucks have won and covered 10 of 13 times. The Bucks didn't play up to their capability in Game 3 yet it took two overtimes for the Raptors to put them away at home. I thought the Bucks would play much better in Game 4. The Raptors, to their credit, stepped up and protected their home floor with an impressive 120-102 win. Nick Nurse made some key defensive adjustments and Toronto's role players came through. Now it's the Bucks' turn. Perhaps it's just being glib to say that, but these are the facts: The Bucks are 21-5 ATS following a loss. They have covered 18 of the last 24 times after not covering in their previous game. They also haven't lost three games in a row all season! The Bucks are the No. 1 scoring team in the NBA. They also ranked first in offensive rebounding. They are deeper than Toronto, better on the boards and stronger defensively finishing No. 1 in defensive field goal percentage. In my view, there are only three players who can trump the greatness of Kawhi Leonard. That being LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has the advantage of being at home and healthier than Leonard, who has been hindered by a left leg injury. This is a big spread. I understand that. I hate having to lay more than six, which is a key number in the NBA. But so far the spread has not factored in any of the Bucks' 13 playoff games. The winner of the game covered the spread every time. There's the possibility, too, of the Raptors waving the white flag if they were to fall too far behind by resting Leonard knowing how important he'll be for Games 6 and 7.
05-21-19	Sharks v. Blues -1.5	Top	1-5	Win	181	20 h 52 m	Show
Injuries and the luck factor turning against them leave the Sharks dead in the water for this Game 6 road matchup against the Blues. I don't see San Jose staying alive by beating St. Louis here. Even if the Sharks are hanging in trailing by just one goal there is the strong possibility of an empty net goal taking place since San Jose is in must-win mode down 3-2 in the series. The Blues' superior defense and goaltending with star rookie Jordan Binnington has come alive. The Blues have taken control of the series winning the past two games holding the Sharks to just one goal during this span. The Sharks are 3-7 in their past 10 road contests. San Jose has been the luckiest team in the playoffs. But that luck has run out. The Blues buried the Sharks, 5-0, at San Jose in Game 5. The Sharks have gotten hit hard by injuries with key players captain Joe Pavelski, two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson and Tomas Hertl, their second-leading goal scorer next to Pavelski, all missing significant time in Sunday's Game 5 defeat. Jaden Schwartz has been a monster for the Blues scoring 12 goals during the postseason. Vladimir Tarasenko is stepping up now, too, producing at least one point in five consecutive games.
05-19-19	Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors	Top	112-118	Loss	-109	17 h 52 m	Show
We saw it in Game 3 with the Warriors beating the Trail Blazers by 11 points on Saturday. We're likely to see it here, too, in Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The superior team is an underdog on the road yet easily wins straight-up. Maybe the Raptors can break that mold. I doubt it, though. Milwaukee was the best point spread team during the regular season. Milwaukee is the best ATS team in the postseason, too, going 9-1 SU and ATS. The Bucks have outscored the Raptors by 35 points during the last five quarters. What's become clear is the Raptors aren't good enough, nor deep enough, to beat the Bucks. Toronto hasn't solved Milwaukee's offense, nor its defense, averaging 101.5 points in the series, which is 13 points below its season average. The Bucks have too many weapons to go with with Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Raptors to keep up. Kawhi Leonard doesn't have the bench help, nor the veteran step-up that the Bucks have been providing for Antetokounmpo.
05-19-19	Giants v. Diamondbacks -1.5	Top	3-2	Loss	-100	13 h 11 m	Show
The Diamondbacks' last three victories have been by an average of eight runs. I like Arizona to beat the Giants, enough to lay the run line to get a plus price instead of risk laying heavy juice. Drew Pomeranz is coming off the injured list to start for the Giants. Pomeranz has been highly inconsistent and isn't likely to go deep into the game, which would put the Giants' vulnerable middle relievers into action. Lefty Robbie Ray is in great form for the Diamondbacks with a 3-0 mark and 1.98 ERA in his past five starts. His ERA is 1.10 during his last three starts. Arizona is 5-2 versus the Giants in Ray's past seven starts against San Francisco. The Giants are 5-9 versus lefty starters this season. Word is the Giants will be resting Buster Posey and Brandon Belt. Brandon Crawford may also sit out. San Francisco has won just 33 percent of its past 43 road games.
05-17-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6.5	Top	103-125	Win	100	19 h 13 m	Show
The Bucks not only finished with the best record in the NBA during the regular season, but also the best point spread mark covering 60 percent of their games. Milwaukee has been even better in the playoffs winning and covering nine of 10 games. The Bucks even covered a 6.5-point spread in Game 1 against Toronto despite not playing well until the very end. The Bucks were a bit rusty and Giannis Antetokounmpo is capable of much better. Look for the Bucks and superstar Antetokounmpo to step up their game here. If that's the case, Milwaukee should win by double-digits for the eighth time in 11 postseason games. Milwaukee is a dominant home team, is much deeper than Toronto and Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton are strong enough defenders to bother Kawhi Leonard. The Bucks aren't totally dependent on Antetokounmpo like the Raptors are on their superstar, Leonard. The Raptors had to go the full seven game limit with the 76ers in the Eastern Conference semifinals. That took a toll on Leonard, who was babied during the regular season often sitting out games for rest purposes. Now Leonard is dealing with tough defenders and a fatigue factor. Kyle Lowery played extremely well in Game 1 of this series. But Lowery hasn't looked very good up until this point. I doubt he keeps that up. The Raptors have grown too accustomed to watching and waiting on Leonard to close out games. He's not going to be able to do that against this caliber of elite opponent. Leonard needs help and so far key Raptors aren't providing that. Marc Gasol, Pascal Siakam and Danny Green aren't hitting clutch shots. The Bucks have covered five of the last six matchups against the Raptors. They are the superior team with upside considering their Game 1 performance. Toronto had their chance in Game 1 and blew it. Look for the Bucks to win this game much more handily.
05-15-19	Raptors v. Bucks -6	Top	100-108	Win	100	20 h 56 m	Show
I want the Bucks going for me here in this Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. While Toronto has been up and down and fortunate to survive a Game 7 against the 76ers, Milwaukee has been dominant in the postseason just like in the regular season. The Bucks have won and covered eight of nine playoff games with seven of the eight victories occurring by double-digits. Milwaukee's average winning margin is 15.3 points. The Bucks don't want a repeat of their last series when they were ambushed at home by the Celtics in Game 1. Milwaukee hasn't lost since with Antetokounmpo averaging 30 points during the last four games. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kawhi Leonard are a trade-off. Both rank among the top five players in the NBA. Milwaukee, though, is getting better backcourt play and is the deeper team. The Bucks have had the proper response for everything the Pistons and Celtics threw at them. It's a huge added bonus for the Bucks that underrated guard Malcolm Brogdon has returned after being out seven weeks with a foot injury. He may be the Bucks' best defender. The Bucks defeated the Raptors in three of four regular season meetings and have covered four of the past five in the series.
05-08-19	Rockets +6.5 v. Warriors	Top	99-104	Win	100	19 h 40 m	Show
Some believed the Rockets were better than the Warriors last season when the teams met in the Western Conference Finals. But then Chris Paul got hurt and had to miss Games 6 and 7. The Warriors took advantage to win those games and the series. Paul is healthy this time around. The Rockets are improved and the Warriors have gotten worse. If there is any separation between the two teams now it is minimal at best, which is proven by no team winning by more than six points during the first four games of the series. These games have all been close down to the wire affairs. Yes, the Warriors are home now. But Houston has momentum and confidence having won two in a row. The Warriors are showing more fatigue. Their bench is struggling with just a combined 18 points during the past two games. Stephen Curry isn't 100 percent. Golden State also doesn't have a good point spread track record at Oracle Arena just 11-23-1 ATS (32 percent) the past 35 times there.
04-30-19	Rockets +5.5 v. Warriors	Top	109-115	Loss	-106	27 h 45 m	Show
The Warriors escaped the Rockets last season in the Western Conference finals winning in seven games. Chris Paul didn't play in Games 6 and 7 last season because of injury. The Rockets lost both of those games. Paul is healthy now, the Rockets are better than they were at this time a year ago and the Warroirs are worse. The Rockets nearly beat Golden State in Game 1, but lost 104-100 because of official's calls that didn't go their way, making less than 30 percent of their 3-point shots and James Harden having a terrible shooting game going just 9-for-28 from the floor. I expect Harden to shoot much better. I also expect more calls to go in Houston's favor after the NBA has come under scrutiny for the unfair officiating against the Rockets when Houston faced the Warriors last year and in Game 1. P.J. Tucker and Clint Capela combined to score only four points on 1-for-6 shooting from the floor in Sunday's game. They should do much better especially Capela. The Rockets could be the most underrated defensive team in the NBA. They finished No. 2 in defensive efficiency during the final 15 games of the regular season. They held the Warriors 13 points below their season average while forcing 20 turnovers and coming up with 14 steals. Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson both are less than 100 percent because of ankle injuries. DeMarcus Cousins is out. The Warriors are one of the worst point spread home teams going 10-23-1 (30.3 percent) in their last 34 games at Oracle Arena, including failing to cover 12 of the last 18 times. Houston has covered four of the past five times on the road against Golden State.
04-27-19	76ers +6.5 v. Raptors	Top	95-108	Loss	-104	21 h 44 m	Show
I'll go with the 76ers' superior starting lineup against the Raptors' deeper bench. Toronto's depth may factor later on in this series, but for now both teams are fresh and should have their full energy. Philly has too many weapons for the Raptors. It's going to take Toronto coach Nick Nurse a lot longer to figure out the 76ers than it did the Magic, the weakest of any of the playoff teams. The Raptors don't have enough weapons to contain Joe Embiid, Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, who I'll take over Kyle Lowery in the pivotal point guard matchup. The Raptors have yet to prove they have exorcized their playoff demons. They lost at home in Game 1 to the Magic and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times when playing after three or more days rest. The 76ers are ready to take that next playoff step. They are confident coming off four straight wins and covers against the Nets, who are a better team than the Magic.
04-24-19	Mariners +1.5 v. Padres	Top	0-1	Win	100	13 h 21 m	Show
Padres rookie Chris Paddack is off to a nice start. But he is way overpriced here, enough so where I can take the Mariners plus 1 1/2 runs on the run line without having to lay monster juice. Seattle has won nine of its last 11 road games and has the much superior offense. The Mariners entered their series against the Padres ranked No. 1 in runs scored at 6.4 per game. They have scored 31 runs during their last five games. Seattle has excellent hitting depth with eight players producing at least 14 RBI's. Paddack went six innings, a career-high, in his last outing. He has thrown just 20 innings in his big league career yet is rated a huge favorite by the linesmaker here against Felix Hernandez. Sure "King Felix" is on the downside of a brilliant career, but he still knows how to pitch and he'll be helped throwing at pitcher-friendly Petco Park where he is 5-1 lifetime with a 1.63 ERA in eight starts. San Diego ranked just 27th in scoring entering the series. The Padres are 2-6 in their last eight games and 19-37 during their past 56 home games.
04-20-19	Nuggets v. Spurs -3.5	Top	117-103	Loss	-109	17 h 3 m	Show
The Nuggets haven't won in San Antonio in more than seven years, losing 14 straight times to the Spurs on the road. I don't see that changing here in Game 4 of their playoff series. The Spurs should be up 3-0 instead of 2-1, but blew a 19-point lead midway through the third quarter in Game 2. They are the clear better team and they have a strong home-court history. Second-year guard Derrick White has stepped up big-time for San Antonio giving the Spurs three major weapons along with DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge. The Spurs have those players going for them along with a huge gap in playoff experience. While the Nuggets are involved in their first postseason experience since 2013, the Spurs are in the playoffs for the 22nd straight season.
04-19-19	Raptors -4.5 v. Magic	Top	98-93	Win	100	16 h 19 m	Show
Nice job by the Magic in reaching the playoffs this season and upsetting the Raptors in Game 1. The clock struck midnight, though, for the Magic in Game 2 when they were buried, 111-82, by Toronto this past Tuesday. The Raptors are vastly superior. They could be among the four best teams in the NBA. The Magic can't hang against this type of focused opponent especially when their best player, Nikola Vucevic, can't produce. Vucevic has been held to an average of 8.5 points a game making just six-of-21 shots from the field.
04-14-19	Thunder +3.5 v. Blazers	Top	99-104	Loss	-109	5 h 2 m	Show
If you can't stop Russell Westbrook and Paul George you can't beat the Thunder. Portland couldn't stop either one. Westbrook averaged 29.5 points, 10 rebounds and 8.8 assists against the Trail Blazers this season while George averaged 38 points and 10.5 rebounds. The result was Oklahoma City going 4-0 versus Portland with an average victory margin of seven points. Now the Trail Blazers are without their best big man, injured Jusuf Nurkic, and their second-leading scorer, CJ McCollum, hasn't looked good since coming back late in the season after missing 10 games with a knee injury.
04-12-19	Blue Jackets v. Lightning -1.5	Top	5-1	Loss	-100	20 h 48 m	Show
Tampa Bay was the best team in hockey this season - and it wasn't even close. Perhaps things came too easy for the Lightning in their playoff opener against the Blue Jackets. Columbus has been hot, but there was no excuse except overconfidence for the Lightning blowing a 3-0 lead at home to the Blue Jackets in a 4-3 loss on Wednesday. It was a hard loss for the Lightning. It's a defeat the Lightning should learn from. I expect them to bring a great deal of intensity to this Game 2 matchup. I can't lay this big of juice especially in a Stanley Cup game. But I strongly believe Tampa Bay will win this game by multiple goals so I'm going with the Lightning on the puck line laying 1 1/2 goals and getting a plus price back. Tampa Bay has won by multiple goals in nine of its last 13 victories. The Lightning defense is stronger, too, with the return of Victor Hedman, who missed the last four games of the regular season.
04-09-19	Raptors v. Wolves +7	Top	120-100	Loss	-105	18 h 17 m	Show
This is the Timberwolves' final home game of the season. So a strong effort should be forthcoming from them. Minnesota has been good at home going 25-15 SU, 22-18 ATS at Target Center. Toronto has a losing road point spread mark. This game also means nothing to the Raptors since they are locked into the No. 2 playoff seed in the Eastern Conference. It's the Raptors' final regular season game so obviously they would like to avoid any injury, which could mean sitting out a star such as Kyle Lowery and Kawhi Leonard. The Timberwolves are down to third-string point guard Tyus Jones. He's coming off a career-high in assists, though, and is bolstered by talented scorers, Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Dario Saric Minnesota has covered the past four times against Toronto, too.
04-08-19	Texas Tech +1.5 v. Virginia	Top	77-85	Loss	-106	34 h 33 m	Show
Texas Tech plus 1 1/2 vs. Virginia Great, great job by Chris Beard and Texas Tech reaching the NCAA Tournament title game. Virginia is here, too. The pressure is all on the Cavaliers - and they usually don't respond well to it. The Cavaliers were the first No. 1 seed in NCAA Tourney history to lose to a 16th seed last year. They trailed Gardner-Webb at halftime in their opening NCAA Tourney game this year. Virginia is darn lucky to even survive having nipped Oregon by four points, slipped past Purdue in overtime and received a couple of official's gifts in edging Auburn by one on Saturday winning in highly controversial fashion. Virginia is 2-7 ATS in its last nine NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games and 11-0 ATS the past 11 times going against a foe that has a winning record. The Cavaliers for the first time are going to face an opponent that can match them - if not exceed them - defensively. The Red Raiders held Michigan State to its lowest point total of the season, something I'm not sure Virginia could have done.
04-07-19	Nuggets v. Blazers -3	Top	108-115	Win	100	18 h 23 m	Show
Portland has short revenge for a 119-110 road loss to the Nuggets on Friday. That victory just about locked up the No. 2 seed in the West for the Nuggets. It gives the Nuggets enough cushion that they feel comfortable sitting out their three best players against the Trail Blazers. Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap are all going to miss this game putting the Nuggets at a huge disadvantage. Those three led the Nuggets to their victory against the Trail Blazers two days earlier scoring a combined 70 points. The Nuggets are 3-8 ATS the past 11 times following a victory. Denver has been a mediocre road team all season with just a 20-19 away record. Portland is 30-9 at home and 12-3-1 ATS following a point spread loss. The Trail Blazers not only have short revenge motivation, but are going for playoff seeding still holding a chance at gaining the No. 3 seed. The Trail Blazers hold the No. 4 seed, one game ahead of the Jazz with Utah holding the tiebreaker. CJ McCollum is probable for the Trail Blazers. McCollum, the Trail Blazers' second-leading scorer, has missed the past 10 games with a knee injury. His presence should serve as added inspiration.
04-06-19	Blackhawks v. Predators -1.5	Top	2-5	Win	120	17 h 11 m	Show
The Blackhawks didn't make the playoffs again, but they did finish the home portion of their disappointing season in style with a 6-1 victory against the Stars Friday night. Now, though, the Blackhawks travel to Nashville to face the Predators in the regular season finale with the Predators needing a victory to lock up the Central Division. I forsee a letdown and fatigue issues for the Blackhawks against the highly motivated Predators. This will be Chicago's fourth game in six days and second in two nights. The Blackhawks are 8-21 the past 29 times playing on zero rest and 3-8 when playing for the fourth time in six days. The Blackhawks also are fat and happy from their impressive victory against Dallas Friday. Nashville is 4-1 in its last five games. The Predators aren't going to screw around after pulling out a 3-2 win against the lowly Canucks at home on Thursday after falling behing 2-0. The Predators have defeated the Blackhawks four of the past five times at home and are 8-3 overall versus them during the last 11 meetings.
04-06-19	Auburn v. Virginia -5	Top	62-63	Loss	-110	102 h 15 m	Show
Auburn is really going to miss Chuma Okeke. He's the Tigers' leading rebounder, top defender and third-leading scorer. The Tigers have gotten away with his absence by their long-range hot shooting. That's not going to work against Virginia. Not only do the Cavaliers give up the fewest points per game in the nation, but they rank in the top five in defensive field goal percentage, 3-point defense and defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers haven't played up to their capabilities in the NCAA Tournament so far. I see them finally bringing their "A" game to the table here. The Cavaliers have covered 75 percent of their 20 non-home games this season. I trust them in this spot against this one-dimensional opponent missing its best player.
04-03-19	Astros -1.5 v. Rangers	Top	0-4	Loss	-109	11 h 4 m	Show
The Astros have dominated the Rangers at Globe Life Park winning 14 of the past 16 times (88%) there. I see this as a kill spot for the Astros so I'm laying 1 1/2 runs playing the run line in order to cut back on the heavy juice. The pitching matchup is Gerrit Cole versus lefty Mike Minor. Cole is an elite pitcher, who is 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in five career outings versus the Rangers with four of those starts occurring last season. Minor is a borderline starter, who was hammered in his first start this year giving up six runs on five hits in 4 2/3 innings against the Cubs. The Astros are 39-23 against southpaws since last season, including 2-0 this year.
04-02-19	Nuggets v. Warriors -8	Top	102-116	Win	100	22 h 31 m	Show
I give the Nuggets tremendous credit for their outstanding season. But they are not in Golden State's class. When the Warriors are motivated they can bury any team, including the Nuggets. The Warriors have proven that in the last two meetings defeating the Nuggets by an average of 24 points the past two times. Denver is not a good road team as evidenced by covering only 42 percent of its road games this season. The Warriors will be focused. They are hitting their stride after destroying the Hornets, 137-90, this past Sunday at home. Denver enters the matchup trying to fix its offense. The Nuggets are averaging fewer than 95 points a game during their past five games. Golden State ranks No. 2 in scoring at 117.7 points a game. The Warriors rank No. 1 in field goal percentage. The Nuggets aren't as good as the Warriors and the timing for this showdown matchup isn't good either for Denver.
04-02-19	Wichita State v. Lipscomb +1	Top	64-71	Win	100	16 h 16 m	Show
Lipscomb lacks the name recoginition of Wichita State. But the Bisons are the better team. The Bisons had 14 road victories, most in the nation. So they are well-tested away from home. They are 21-7-1 ATS during their past 29 nonconference games. The Bisons have plenty of experience from last season's NCAA Tournament team. They are 19-3 in their last 22 games and rank in the Top 10 in scoring, scoring margin and assists. I respect Wichita State coach Gregg Marshall. But the Shockers are going to have problems matching up against senior guard Garrison Mathews, who can light things up from the perimeter like he did against North Carolina State in the quarterfinals of this NIT tournament scoring 44 points. Matthews has averaged at least 20 points in each of the past three seasons.
03-30-19	Texas Tech v. Gonzaga -4	Top	75-69	Loss	-109	19 h 13 m	Show
Sure Texas Tech has the capability of upsetting Gonzaga. The Red Raiders play tenacious defense and have a tremendous coach in Chris Beard. But Texas Tech would have to play its "A" game and Gonzaga would have to be off its game. I don't see that happening. Gonzaga has the deep tournament experience, a height advantage, leads the nation in scoring and has a very strong defense, too. Gonzaga ranks No. 1 in the country in scoring, field goal percentage, scoring margin and assist-to-turnover ratio. But the Bulldogs aren't just offense. They also ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, tied for sixth in defensive field goal percentage and were tied for 18th in defensive 3-point field goal percentage. The Bulldogs are deeper than Texas Tech, too, with a 10-man rotation. The Red Raiders are going to have problems up front dealing with Gonzaga's star big men, Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. Add it all up and Gonzaga has enough edges to cover this number.
03-29-19	Virginia Tech v. Duke -7	Top	73-75	Loss	-104	18 h 11 m	Show
Duke had its scare surviving Central Florida, 77-76, in its last game. The Blue Devils pulled that one out down three points with 14.4 seconds left. Expect a much better performance here from the Blue Devils. Duke is big-game, tournament experienced while Virginia Tech hasn't made the Sweet 16 since 1962. The Hokies are 2-6 ATS the past eight times meeting a foe with a winning record. The Blue Devils were missing Zion Williamson when they fell, 77-72, to Virginia Tech on the road during the second-to-last week of the regular season. Duke won't be flat here. The Hokies aren't beating the Blue Devils a second time this season.