There are few sure things. UC Santa Barbara beating Bakersfield is one of them. The Gauchos have won the last 11 meetings.

This includes Santa Barbara's 12-point home win and six-point road win against the Roadrunners this season.

It's not a fluke that Santa Barbara is 19-12, 11-9 in the Big West Conference while the Roadrunners are 14-18 and 8-12 in the conference.

The Gauchos are a much better shooting team than Bakersfield and much superior defensively.

I have Western Kentucky as a far stronger favorite than the point spread indicates in this Conference USA Tournament opener. No, the 17-14 Hilltoppers aren't some great team. But 9-22 Florida International is that bad.

The Panthers just may be the worst 3-point shooting team in the country. They are inferior to Western Kentucky both offensively and defensively.

Florida International is far from being in good form either, covering only one of its last eight games. The Panthers lost 15 of its 18 conference games.

Western Kentucky  just defeated FIU, 76-67, at home this past Thursday. The Hilltoppers were 8-10 in league. They rank in the top 50 in defensive field goal percentage.

Don McHenry, an all-around star, gives the Hilltoppers the best player on the court.

I don't expect Zion Williamson to see action in this game since he played in the Pelicans', 146-117, embarrassing road loss to the Rockets last night. Williamson hasn't played in back-to-back games since returning from a hamstring injury in early January. 

Still, I like the Pelicans getting this many points. 

New Orleans plays much better at home. The Pelicans are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 games in New Orleans. They're much improved on the boards, which was a real weakness.

Mainly, though, my handicap is a fade on Memphis.

The Grizzlies aren't playing well enough to lay this many points on the road. They are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Memphis gave up 94 points through three quarters to the short-handed Mavericks before winning, 122-111, this past Friday. That has been the Grizzlies' lone cover during their past 10 games. 

Memphis continues to be without its best big man, injured Jaren Jackson Jr. He won't play today because of an ankle injury. The Pelicans have upgraded their rebounding enough to take advantage.

This is too many points for UCLA to lay in this cross-town long-standing rivalry. The game means far more to USC, which has started to play better. An upset win by the Trojans here secures their place in the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

USC rolled past Washington, 92-61, three days ago. That halted a five-game Trojans' losing skid and should restore the team's confidence.

The Trojans are a top-100 scoring team. They've produced 82 or more points in three of their last four games. They are dangerous. Just ask Big Ten leader Michigan State. The Spartans fell to USC, 70-64, early last month.

The Trojans trailed the Bruins by just one point with 96 seconds left in the first matchup this season before losing by six points.

This may look like an easy game for the Kings on paper, but it's not given the spot and Sacramento's injury situation. 

The Kings just concluded a four-game, eight-day road trip with a tough loss to the Nuggets two days ago. Sacramento had won the first three games of its road swing and led the Nuggets by nine points going into the fourth quarter, but ran out of gas and lost by six. 

The Sacramento players barely have time to get acclimated to being back home before they go back on the highway for a bigger game against the Clippers on Sunday. So there could be a concentration and focus problem for the Kings, especially given the low bar of their opponent. 

The Kings, though, would be challenged to cover a mid-range number without playing well even if they were healthy. But they aren't. Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk are both out. Those injuries more than offset the Spurs being without Victor Wembanyama. Sabonis is Sacramento's top rebounder, defender and shot-blocker. Monk averages 17.6 points a game and is second on the team in assists. 

San Antonio has an added day of rest after a 14-point home victory against the Nets this past Tuesday. This is a bigger than normal game for the Spurs because De'Aaron Fox is playing against his former team. That should provide extra motivation for the Spurs.

It's easy to overlook Iowa. The Hawkeyes never were able to recover after losing their star big man, Owen Freeman, for the season with a finger injury. Iowa is 3-10 in its last 13 games.

But Michigan State won't be looking past the Hawkeyes despite Iowa's dismal record. It's not just because the Spartans clinch an outright Big Ten Conference title with a win. No, it's more than that.

Tom Izzo has a history of getting the Spartans to peak right before tournament time. That's the case again this season with Michigan State winning and covering its last five games. Izzo is putting a great deal of emphasis on this matchup remembering a home loss to Iowa last season and what happened to his team the last time they visited Iowa. The Spartans blew a 13-point lead with 1:34 left, losing in overtime.

That marked only the fourth time in Division I history a team lost when leading by at least 11 points with 55 seconds to play in regulation.  

This is what Michigan State center Carson Cooper told the Detroit newspapers about this game: "I think for us right now, the attention to detail is probably at an all-time high. Especially Iowa, you can't look past them even though they're not playing great basketball right now, because of what they've been able to do with us the last couple of years. It really makes it personal for us."

Iowa is a top-30 scoring and 3-point shooting team. However, the Hawkeyes rank 340th defensively, surrendering nearly 80 points a game. They are near the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 6-12 league mark. Michigan State ranks fourth in the nation in 3-point defense.

I disagree with the early marketplace activity that has made Stanford road chalk against Notre Dame. 

This is a sell-high on Stanford, buy-low spot on Notre Dame. The Cardinal is off a 3-0 homestand. However, Stanford has lost six of its past seven road games. The Cardinal is averaging just 65 points a game during their past six away contests. This also is their first road matchup since Feb. 15. So there's going to be an adjustment period.

Stanford is a solid shooting team. Notre Dame, though, ranks 42nd in defensive rebounding and can limit Stanford's scoring opportunities.  
The Irish return home following a 74-71 road loss to Wake Forest and an 83-68 away defeat to Clemson. Note, however, Stanford lost at Wake Forest, 80-67, and lost at Clemson, 85-71. 

Notre Dame should be up for this home matchup. I see the Irish getting the job done.

I'm surprised this line opened where it did because I consider New Mexico to be far superior to Nevada. The Lobos are 23-6 and have won nine of their last 11 games. If the Lobos win this game, they earn at least a share of their first Mountain West Conference regular-season title since 2012-13. So New Mexico certainly is going to have incentive.

Nevada is 16-13 and ranks seventh in the Mountain West with an 8-10 league mark. The Wolf Pack have lost three of their last four games. They are off a terrible loss to UNLV  this past Friday. 

The Wolf Pack haven't beaten a top-five Mountain West team all season. 

The Lobos outscore the Wolf Pack by 10 points a game. They also are much better on the boards. New Mexico has the best guard on the floor in Donovan Dent and the best big man in Nelly Junior Joseph. 

New Mexico has won the last three in this series. Nevada isn't expected to have two of its rotation players, Tre Coleman and Daniel Foster.

This is an excellent gauge to determine just how much the Trail Blazers have improved. They are riding a four-game win streak and have drawn to within four games of qualifying for a play-in tournament spot.

The Cavaliers are in letdown mode after coming from 18 points down to defeat the Celtics in Boston two days ago. It was one of the Cavaliers' most satisfying victories of the season.

So the situation, Portland's improvement and getting this many points puts me on the underdog.

Now that the calendar has hit the magic month of March, powerful second-ranked Duke is thinking about down the road with the ACC Tournament and March Madness. This is the Blue Devils' second-to-last home game. I don't see their focus and motivation being fully there.

Duke has to be satisfied to follow up a loss to Clemson with five straight blowout victories. I understand there's a huge talent gap between the two teams. But Florida State is playing hard for Leonard Hamilton, in his final season. The 15-12 Seminoles are playing better in their past six games. An upset win against Duke would be the highlight of their season and a great going away present for Hamilton.

During this span, Florida State beat Notre Dame and upset Wake Forest on the road, covered at Louisville and played better against North Carolina than the final score of 96-85 showed. Malique Ewin, the Seminoles' leading rebounder and shot blocker and second top scorer, had to leave that game with foot soreness. He should play here having had five days of rest. He is the second-best offensive rebounder in the ACC.

Senior Jamir Watkins, the fifth-leading scorer in the ACC, gives the Seminoles that needed star guard to hang against the Blue Devils.

Coastal Carolina doesn't have a player averaging more than 12.7 points a game. It's easy to see why the Chanticleers are last in the Sun Belt Conference while losing 13 of their past 14 games. They rank 341st in scoring.

Georgia State averages nine points more per game than Coastal Carolina. The Panthers are 8-8 in the conference compared to the Chanticleers' 2-14 Sun Belt mark.

The Panthers are playing well with five wins in their last six games. Georgia State defeated Coastal Carolina, 79-74, in the first meeting this season. That was back on Jan. 11. The Panthers have gotten better since then while Coastal Carolina has gotten worse. The Chanticleers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games.

I get that fifth-ranked Houston has the top defense in the country and is at home. But this point spread is too much disrespect to eighth-ranked Iowa State.

The Cyclones average six more points per game than Houston. Iowa State's TJ Otzelberger is in my discussion for best coach in the country. 
Otzelberger dealt with Houston last season and came away with two victories in three games. Point spread-wise, the Cyclones were 2-0-1 ATS versus the Cougars last season.

Perhaps Houston is better than it was last season. But Otzelberger also has his strongest Iowa State team. 

The Cyclones are a top-30 scoring team. Their defense is in excellent current form holding the past five opponents to an average of 64.2 points. 

Otzelberger has a pair of ball handlers, Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert, who won't get rattled by Houston's tenacious pressing defense.

Memphis hasn't lost three games in a row all season. Orlando hasn't won three straight since Dec. 1. 

I don't see these trends changing here. Memphis is the far superior team and isn't going to lack motivation after a 127-113 road loss to the Pacers on Thursday night. A big takeaway from that game is the Grizzlies finally are fully healthy. 

Orlando also played last night, beating the Hawks at home, 114-108. The Magic still don't have Jalen Suggs back in their lineup. He's missed the last 10 games with a bruised thigh. Suggs is the Magic's third-leading scorer and an excellent defensive player. 

Memphis is 36-19. Orlando is below .500. The Magic have lost 14 of their past 21 games.

The Grizzlies average 19 more points per game than the Magic and rank No. 3 in defensive field goal percentage.

The point spread is more than reasonable to back the Grizzlies.

Friday Free Play

Pistons minus 4 at Spurs

Often a team suffers a letdown in their second game after losing a superstar following winning initially. I believe that's going to be the case with the Spurs in their game tonight against the Pistons.

San Antonio gave an inspired, gutty performance in upsetting the Suns on Thursday after learning Victor Wembanyama would be out for the rest of the season because of deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. All Wembanyama was doing was averaging 24.3  points, 11.0 rebounds, 3.7 assists while leading the league in blocked shots with 3.8 per game. Keep in mind, too, that Charles Bassey, who is Wembanyama's backup, has missed the last six games with a knee injury.

Also please note that the Spurs defeated Phoenix in Austin not San Antonio. The game tonight also will be in Austin.

It takes two, though, to make the right handicap. The key question is have the Pistons improved enough this season to justify laying mid-range points with them on the road?

I'm going to say yes. The Pistons enter this matchup with a season-best four-game win streak. Their 29-26 record at this point of the season is their best mark in seven years. Only six teams have had a better record than the Pistons since Dec. 21. Detroit is 18-9 during its past 27 games, registering the fifth-best defensive rating and nine-best offensive ranking during this time span.

San Antonio, by comparison, is 24-29 and has lost 13 of its last 19 games.

The wild-card is Detroit last played nine days ago. The Pistons went into All-Star break riding a lot of confidence and optimism. I have to trust that J.B. Bickerstaff will have the Pistons ready to play to keep their momentum going.

New Mexico leads the Mountain West Conference with a 14-1 record and is hot, winning eight in a row.

Yet the oddsmaker opened Boise State the favorite against the Aggies. Early market activity has been on the Broncos, too.

Wrong?

Not the way I see it. The oddsmaker pegged it right. The Broncos are 38-2 during their past 40 home night games. They have beaten New Mexico each of the last six times they've hosted them.

Even though the Broncos have certain matchup edges on New Mexico, they were buried, 84-65, on the road by the Aggies last month. Boise State committed 17 turnovers and missed 19 of 24 shots from beyond the arc while the Aggies made 54.4 percent of their 3-point shots in that game.

But now Boise State is home with revenge. The Broncos have held their past five home opponents to an average of 56.4 points.

Boise State is the fourth-best defensive rebounding team in the country and a far better free throw shooting team than New Mexico, ranking 36th in the nation in accuracy. The Aggies rank 288th in free throw percentage and are 228th in defensive rebounding.

Arizona has not lost three straight games all season. I don't see that streak ending here for the 13th-ranked Wildcats.

The Wildcats are better than unranked Baylor. They proved that last month at home when they built a 27-point second half lead and coasted to an, 81-70, victory. KenPom ratings have Arizona as the 12th best team while ranking Baylor 29th. 

But now Arizona is in stop-the-pain mode after a 73-70 road loss to surging Kansas State six days ago and a tough, 62-58, home loss to sixth-ranked Houston this past Saturday.

Baylor has a potential lottery pick in big man Norchad Omier. However, the Bears' rotation took a hit three games ago when center Josh Ojianwuna was lost for the season with a knee injury. 

The Bears failed to cover as 8 1/2-point home favorites in beating West Virginia, 74-71 in overtime, two days ago. Just seven players saw action for the Bears with four players logging 35 minutes, including Omier. VJ Edgecombe and Langston Love each went 41 minutes. 

Baylor also had to change its style without Ojianwuna going with four perimeters alongside Omier. That style is less effective matching up against the Wildcats, who rank 12th in offensive rebounding.

Surprised unranked Texas is a favorite against 15th-ranked Kentucky? Don't be. The spot and Kentucky likely missing two key players make the Longhorns a deserving home favorite. 

Texas is in desperation mode having gone 1-4 in its last five games. The Longhorns have played the toughest schedule in the toughest conference, the SEC. But they need this game to improve their NCAA Tournament resume. 

The timing works for Texas. The Longhorns draw the Wildcats after Kentucky just upset fifth-ranked Tennessee at home this past Tuesday. 

The Wildcats, though, finished their emotional victory against the Volunteers minus Jaxson Robinson, who sat out with a wrist injury, and point guard Lamont Butler, who went out with injury during the game. Kentucky coach Mark Pope said he does not expect either player to play. Those are Kentucky's second and third leading scorers. Butler also is Kentucky's assists leader. 

Butler's expected absence should be a plus for Texas' Tre Johnson, who leads the SEC in scoring.

A decimated front-court, no Luka Doncic and a disgruntled, hostile fan base puts me on the Warriors. Golden State is coming on since acquiring Jimmy Butler burying the Bucks and and Bulls in their last two games.

This more a fade on the Mavericks, though. Dallas wanted to load up in the frontcourt and beat teams dominating the paint after dealing Doncic for Anthony Davis. Unfortunately for the Mavericks they have a cluster injury situation with their big men.

Center Daniel Gafford is the latest Dallas casualty after suffering a sprained knee in an overtime loss to the Kings this past Monday. He joins other injured Dallas players Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively II, Dwight Powell, P.J. Washington and Caleb Martin.

The Mavericks are generating no sympathy from their fans, who hate them now for trading Doncic. Dallas probably is better off being on the road than playing at home during this time.

A rejuvenated Butler has made the Warriors relevant again. It's not a fluke the Warriors had a season-16 steals against the Bucks in their last game, a 125-111 win, and that Curry is averaging seven 3-pointers during the past two games.

There is only one team better than the Thunder in the Western Conference and it's not the Suns. Memphis is 35-17, the No. 2 team in the West and nine games better than Phoenix.

I want the Grizzlies after they lost, 125-112, at home to Oklahoma City this past Saturday. That was only Memphis' second loss in its last 12 games. The Grizzlies are 13-3 this season when playing following a defeat for 81 percent.

Phoenix has lost and failed to cover in four of its five games this month. The Suns are expected to get Kevin Durant back, but won't have Bradley Beal for a third straight game due to a toe injury.

The Suns had Durant and still lost at home to the Grizzlies, 117-112, when they last met on Dec. 31.

I believe in taking points with the better team. So I'm going with the Eagles fully realizing how clutch and lucky the Chiefs are in close games.

I give the Eagles a check mark in every area except quarterback and coaching. The Eagles have a much superior running game with Saquon Barkley, are better in the trenches, have a higher-rated secondary and the two best wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.

No team produced more than 23 points against the Eagles during the last 16 games except the Commanders.

Philadelphia ranked either first or second in scoring defense, pass defense and total defense. The Chiefs were below average in pass defense.

Patrick Mahomes doesn't have any superstar skill position players around him unless you include a declining Travis Kelce. Jalen Hurts has Barkley and Brown.

The Eagles don't need to blitz Mahomes because their defensive front is so good both against the run and pass. The Texans had a very good defensive front, too. The Chiefs only managed 212 yards of offense and 4.2 yards per play against the Texans in their playoff opener.

Philadelphia's offensive line was ranked the best in the NFL for the third straight season by Pro Football Focus. Barkley was close to setting the NFL single-season rushing record running behind that line.

Kansas City was an underdog during the past two Super Bowls. The last time the Chiefs were a Super Bowl favorite was against the Buccaneers in 2021. Tampa Bay beat the favored Chiefs, 31-9.

This time around the Chiefs are back to being the Super Bowl favorite. The oddsmaker had no choice, but to make Kansas City chalk. No way could they open Mahomes as a Super Bowl underdog.

That doesn't mean the Chiefs are the better team. They're not, which the Eagles will prove.

Super Bowl Props

Dallas Goedert Over his receiving yardage

Travis Kelce is going to get all the publicity and be heavily bet on the prop market. Dallas Goedert is the other tight end in this Super Bowl matchup.

It's going Over Goedert's receiving yardage, though, that offers value.

The Chiefs surrendered an NFL-high 1,191 yards to tight ends during the regular season. That's an average of 70 tight end receiving yards a game.

Kansas City didn't face too many exceptional tight ends. The last one the Chiefs went against was Brock Bowers eight games ago. Bowers caught 10 passes for 140 yards in that game against the Chiefs.

Goedert is an above average tight end. Jalen Hurts relies on him. Goedert tied A.J. Brown with 18 receiving targets in the Eagles' three playoff games. Goedert averaged 62.6 receiving yards in these three postseason games.

DeAndre Hopkins Over his receptions and receiving yardage: 

DeAndre Hopkins isn't the star wide receiver of past seasons. But he's not washed up either. He remains respectable and dangerous on slant patterns.

I'm sure Patrick Mahomes is not going to ignore him. The Eagles will be keying on Travis Kelce and concerned about Xavier Worthy's great speed. That leaves Hopkins, with his always dependable hands, an inviting target for Mahomes. 

Even though the Raptors won't have Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett while the Thunder gets back Chet Holmgren, I find this point spread too inflated given the situation and Toronto's skill level.

The Raptors have come on to win eight of their last 12 games. They have covered 58 percent of their games this season.

It's easy to see why the oddsmaker is so strong on Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 3-0 on their homestand with blowout victories against the Kings, Bucks and Suns. Holmgren returns for the first time since suffering a pelvic fracture nearly three months ago.

Toronto just suffered its worst loss of the season, 138-107, to the Grizzlies two days ago.

So the Raptors should have motivation after that embarrassing defeat. They also have revenge. Holmgren figures to be rusty, too, after being out for so long.

But the biggest factor in Toronto's favor is the situation. Not only are the Thunder fat and happy, but they have a much bigger game tomorrow night on the road against the Grizzlies. Memphis has the second best record in the West behind Oklahoma City.

So the backdoor could swing wide open if the Raptors need it during the final few minutes when the Thunder surely would be resting starters if holding a big lead.

The Hornets are a bottom-tier team. But they are upper echelon when compared to the 7-41 Wizards. This isn't too many points for the Hornets to lay, playing at home after a tough, 107-104, home loss to the Nuggets this past Saturday in which they led by four points with less than a minute left.

The Wizards halted a 16-game losing streak with a 105-103 road win against the Timberwolves this past Saturday. That put Washington's road record at 2-21. The Wizards have won back-to-back games only once this season - and that was back in October.

The Hornets' front-court received a big boost with center Mark Williams returning from a foot injury. He had 20 points and 15 rebounds against the Nuggets.

I'm attracted to the better team getting points especially when the situation and statistical matchup favor the underdog. 

That's the case in this matchup where the Grizzlies try to make it seven straight wins against the Bucks. Memphis blew out Milwaukee, 122-99, at home back in late October in the first meeting between the team's this season. 

The Bucks showed fatigue getting blown out by the Spurs two days ago. That was the conclusion of a four-game, seven-day road trip for Milwaukee. The Bucks had to fly back for this home game and they will take off for Oklahoma City to play the Thunder on Monday. So the Bucks' focus and concentration might not be fully there. 

Memphis is one of the most well-rounded teams in the league ranking fifth on offense and seventh defensively. The Grizzlies also hold a rebounding edge on the Bucks. Milwaukee will be without Bobby Portis, its second-leading rebounder. That's good news for Memphis big men Jaren Jackson Jr. and Zach Edey.

Gonzaga has a well-earned great reputation. But the Bulldogs are not the class of the West Coast Conference. St. Mary's is with the record and statistics to prove it. The Gaels should not be a home 'dog to Gonzaga.

St. Mary's is unbeaten in nine WCC games. The Gaels are 19-3 overall. Gonzaga is 16-6 overall, 9-13 ATS and is 7-2 in the WCC with losses to Oregon State, 97-89, and to Santa Clara at home, 103-99, on Jan. 18.

The Gaels, who are 11-1 at home, just defeated Santa Clara, 67-54, on the road this past Wednesday. St. Mary's defeated Gonzaga in two of three meetings last season, including in the conference tournament, 69-60.

Gonzaga is the No. 2 scoring team in the nation. However, St. Mary's is the superior defensive and rebounding team. The Gaels give up 10 points fewer per game than the Bulldogs ranking seventh in the country defensively. The Gaels also are the top rebounding team in the nation with a team total rebounding percentage of 57.6 percent.

Gonzaga's 3-point shooting percentage drops seven percent when it plays on the road.

Bottom line: Wrong team favored.

Big favorites can get a little lazy this time of the year in the NBA with the All-Star break not too far away in mid-February.

But I don't see this as a problem for Oklahoma City. The Thunder have the best point spread record in the league at 29-13-2 (69%).

Not only are the Thunder 15 games better than the Warriors in the loss column, but the situation lays out well for them even being the visitor.

The Warriors got away with resting Stephen Curry and his sore knees against the Jazz on Tuesday night in a 114-103 victory. Curry is likely to return here, but the Warriors still are missing two key injured players, Draymond Green and third-leading scorer Jonathan Kuminga.

Golden State has lost and failed to cover during three of the past four times it played without rest. The Warriors were merely a .500 team at home until beating the hapless Jazz.

The Thunder have been idle since Sunday. After this game, they won't play again until Saturday. So Oklahoma, the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA, should have its full focus. The Thunder won't be taking the Warriors lightly either after losing to them at home back in November.

VCU is playing well with five straight victories. But this line is too high.

St. Bonaventure defeated the Rams, 77-75, at home on New Year's Eve. 

The Bonnies are 7-2 ATS in road/neutral site games. 

VCU ranks 12th defensively allowing just 62.6 points a game. St. Bonaventure, though, is right there with the Rams holding foes to an average of 63.6 points a game. VCU's offensive superiority isn't enough to cover this high of a point spread.

Iowa averages nearly 20 points more per game than Minnesota and plays much better at home. Minnesota has yet to win away from home going 0-5 in away and neutral-site court games. That includes blowout road losses to Wisconsin and Indiana, a team Iowa defeated by 25 points at home.

The spot here sets up for an Iowa double-digit victory. The Hawkeyes won't lack motivation returning home after losing West Coast games to UCLA and Southern Cal last week. The Hawkeyes are 10-1 at home with their lone loss occurring to third-ranked Iowa State. 

The Gophers are averaging just 65.2 points in regulation during their last five games. 

Only two teams in the country average more than Iowa's 88.4 points a game - and the Hawkeyes are at their offensive-best at home.

It's rare, but sometimes you can find value on an NFL favorite. This game is an example.

Home field advantage for the Eagles should be worth more than a field goal in this instance given the Rams are traveling across three time zones on a short week to Philadelphia and that's after returning from Arizona to Los Angeles.

This isn't a Rams type of setting either being outdoors with 30-degree weather and possible rain.

I rate the Eagles as far better than the Rams, not just three points better on a neutral field, which is what the betting line seems to indicate.

Philadelphia had its bye in Week 5. Since then the Eagles have gone 13-1. That record most likely would be 14-0 because the one loss came to the Commanders after Jalen Hurts was injured early in the game. Philadelphia had a two-touchdown lead against Washington, but were punchless when backup stiff Kenny Pickett replaced Hurts.

The Eagles defense has become the best in the league ranking No. 2 in scoring defense and first in fewest yards and passing yards. The Rams are not only the lowest scoring team to make the playoffs, but also allowed the most yards of any of the postseason participants.

Hurts was getting the rust off in the Rams' 22-10 wild card win against the Packers this past Sunday. It was far from the Eagles' "A" game. Yet they never were threatened. The Rams lost to the Packers at home, 24-19, in Week 5.

The Rams couldn't hang against the Eagles at home either when they met in Week 12. Saquon Barkley had 302 total yards of offense just by himself in the Eagles' 37-20 victory.

Not only are the Eagles far superior to the Rams talent-wise, but they have home field and the Rams are in a bad situational spot. That merits a double-digit point spread in my view so I'm easily on the Eagles.

Kudos to the motivated Timberwolves, who upset the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, 116-99, on Friday night. The Timberwolves' reward? They have to immediately fly back home to take on an angry Cavaliers squad that was humiliated by the Thunder on national TV this past Thursday.

The rested Cavaliers have been itching to redeem themselves after losing, 134-114, to the Thunder in a game that wasn't even as close as the 20-point margin. Cleveland pulled its starters out early of the blowout in anticipation of this matchup. No Cavalier starter logged more than 25 minutes in that loss with three playing fewer than 21 minutes.

You have to go back to November to find the last time the Cavaliers lost consecutive games.

Minnesota's victory against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden was emotional because of Julius Randle's return to New York. Randle was one of four Minnesota starters to log at least 34 minutes. Not only are the Timberwolves playing without rest, but this marks their third game in four days having lost at home to the Warriors by one point this past Wednesday.

In my view this line is inflated because of how well Ohio State has looked in its last two games - blowouts of Tennessee and Oregon - and how mediocre Texas has looked.

But I'm not convinced Ohio State is better than Texas. Those just happened to be the Buckeyes' two most impressive victories of the season.

I like Longhorns QB Quinn Ewers better than Buckeyes QB Will Howard, who doesn't bring fear when it comes to downfield passing. The Longhorns also have arguably the best cornerback in the country, Jahdae Barron.

I rated Texas as having a tougher schedule. The only team the Longhorns have lost to is Georgia. Ohio State lost to Michigan. Maybe the Buckeyes beat the Wolverines eight of 10 times, but the fact is Texas crushed the Wolverines, 31-12, on the road.

Note, too, the game venue - Arlington, Texas. It's not Austin, but home field has to go to Texas.

All the pressure is on the Broncos here being in must-win territory. This is a new experience for Denver, which hasn't made the playoffs since 2015.

Yes, the Chiefs will be resting many players, including Patrick Mahomes. But this is a Kansas City team deep in talent, prideful and with stellar coaching. The Chiefs won't roll over even without some of their key starters. Carson Wentz is one of the better backups. He won't lack motivation either as he showcases himself.

Andy Reid has a tremendous track record in the final week of the regular season. The Chiefs are 9-1 the last 10 regular season games despite being underdogs on multiple occasions.

Note, too, the Chiefs have beaten the Broncos in 17 of the last 18 meetings.

No one is calling Buffalo a great team. But the Bulls have huge edges in this matchup making this a strong play.

Liberty isn't very good either. The Flames barely beat New Mexico State. They have one of the worst ATS marks in the country at 3-8.

Making things far worse for the Flames, though, are their many opt-outs. They will be down their quarterback Kaidon Salter and star running back, Quinton Cooley, who rushed for 1,234 yards and 13 touchdowns.

That's not all, though. The Flames also lost nearly their entire offensive line and several defensive linemen, too.

Buffalo enters the matchup with momentum and motivation riding a four-game winning streak.

The Bulls are well coached and come from the superior conference as I would take the MAC above Conference USA.

I feel confident laying this many points with Texas State. The talent gap is that large between these two teams, especially since North Texas won't have quarterback Chandler Morris and wide receiver DT Sheffield. Those are the two keys to the Mean Green's offense.

Heck, North Texas needed a close win against 3-9 Temple to even make this bowl game.

It's not like North Texas has done well when playing in a bowl having lost six straight bowl games.

Texas State has its star quarterback, Jordan McCloud, and will do plenty of damage against a North Texas defense that could be the worst of all the bowl teams. The Mean Green rank 121st in scoring defense and 126th in total defense. Their secondary has allowed 22 touchdown throws and their run defense permits an average of 195.5 yards a game on the ground.

On top of that, Texas State coach GJ Kinne has been known to run up scores.

Injuries have decimated the 49ers this season. They are 1-6 in their last seven games and have little motivation being eliminated from the playoffs.

Dan Campbell's style is for his team to go all out. The Lions haven't forgotten about a 34-31 loss to the 49ers in the NFC championship game last season.

Detroit is 7-0 on the road and have a far better offense than the 49ers, who are down to their third-string running back, without Brandon Aiyuk and are scrambling to put together a makeshift offensive line with multiple injuries.

The Lions have multiple defensive injuries, but possess excellent depth in their defensive line and maybe the best safety tandem in the league.

I like the spot here from a Dallas standpoint. The Mavericks are off a home loss on Christmas Day to the Timberwolves, while the Suns upset the Nuggets at home on Christmas Day.

Dallas is the better team and is a slight underdog.

The Mavericks won't have injured Luka Doncic. But that's somewhat negated with Devin Booker, the Suns' second-leading scorer, out with a groin injury.

Dallas has the better defense and has proven it can score and win without Doncic, averaging 117 points during his absence. The Mavericks are 6-2 when Doncic hasn't played.

Until defeating the Nuggets, the Suns had gone 1-7 ATS in their last eight games.

Once a season it might be permissible to lay points with the Hornets on the road. That time is now.

The desperate Hornets, fresh off a players-only meeting, are playing the Wizards.

Washington has the worst record in the NBA at 4-23. The Wizards are 2-21 in their last 23 games. Each of their last 15 defeats have been by double-digits. 

Making it so tough for the Wizards is they have multiple injuries. Kevin Kuzman, their second-leading scorer, is out. So is big man Marvin Bagley III. Several rotation players are questionable, including their fourth and sixth-leading scorers. 

I get that Charlotte is no prize being 7-22. But the Hornets are the healthier team and have revenge for a 123-114 road loss to the Wizards last Thursday. Charlotte shot just 41 percent from the floor and 19 percent from 3-point range in that game. Washington, by contrast, made 49 percent of its field goal attempts and hit 40 percent of its 3-pointers.

The Texans made the playoffs last season. They likely will make the playoffs again because they have a two-game lead in the weak AFC South Division.

But Houston has not shown the necessary improvement to take the next step, which is beating an elite foe such as the Ravens. The Texans have played three above .500 teams during their last 10 games. They lost each of those games to the Chiefs, Lions and Packers.

Baltimore defeated the Texans, 25-9, in the opening game last year and then whipped the Texans, 34-10, in the playoffs. Both of those games were at home for the Ravens. That doesn't matter. The Ravens remain what I consider to be two tiers above Houston. So, yes, I expect them to win this game by more than a touchdown.

Playing on Christmas Day is a plus, too, for the Ravens.

The Wednesday game means the Texans probably aren't going to have two starting offensive linemen and will be missing both of their starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre, because of injuries.

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-caliber season with a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and close to 800 yards rushing. The Texans have never beaten Jackson in four attempts. Houston's defensive strength is its pass rush. Jackson has the mobility to escape that.

The Ravens are going to get their points. I don't see C.J. Stroud keeping up. Stroud's numbers are down from his rookie season. He's minus his No. 2 and No. 3 receivers with Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell out. Stroud may not be fully recovered mentally from watching his friend Dell suffer a career-threatening gruesome knee injury this past week.

Houston made a smart waiver claim getting Dioontae Johnson from the Ravens, who apparently were so receiver-rich they didn't even use Johnson. However, Johnson hasn't had enough acclimation time with Houston to make a dent in this matchup.

Prop Bet

Mark Andrews to score a touchdown and go Over his yardage total

After a slow start, Mark Andrews has returned to his star form. Andrews has scored a touchdown in five of his last six games, including the past four games. During these last six games, Andrews has averaged 4.1 receptions a game and 43.6 yards. His hands are as reliable as ever.

But what makes Andrews especially intriguing in this game is Houston is down its starting safeties, Jimmie Ward and Jalen Pitre. That means the middle of the field should be there for the taking for Andrews. Lamar Jackson trusts him and I expect will be looking often for Andrews.

San Jose State star wide receiver Nick Nash, who led the nation in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, has opted out of this Hawaii Bowl.

I still like the Spartans enough to lay points with them. Why? Because South Florida may be the worst of all the bowl teams.

The 6-6 Bulls didn't beat a quality team all season. Their most impressive performance may have been against Alabama - in a 42-16 loss. The Bulls are off a 35-28 loss to 4-8 Rice. The Bulls were outscored by 27 points when they met bowl teams this season.

San Jose State has the more talented team and I give the Spartans' coaching staff an edge, too. The Spartans also have experience playing in Hawaii being a member of the Mountain West Conference. The Spartans played at Hawaii last season.

The Spartans don't need Nash to take advantage of South Florida's 128th-ranked pass defense. The Bulls' lost players in the transfer portal, including starting safety Tawfig Byard.

Coastal Carolina actually is the home team here. The game is being played at Brooks Stadium in Conway, S.C. That's where the Chanticleers play their home games.

Yet there has been a huge line movement on the University of Texas San Antonio to where the Roadrunners are around two-touchdown favorites.

Coastal Carolina being without its two quarterbacks, Ethan Vasko and Noah Kim, is what is driving the UTSA money.

But you know what? I'm not especially fond of either Coastal Carolina quarterback. Neither is very accurate. Kim only threw 56 passes. Vasko had a 14-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Chanticleers' strength is their ground attack, which ranks 45th.

Coastal Carolina's Tim Beck is a good coach and UTSA has a horrible defense. The Roadrunners rank 108th in scoring defense giving up 31.3 points a game. They ranked 126rd in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks threw for 26 TD passes against the Roadrunners. Only 10 teams surrendered more TD's through the air.

I have confidence in Beck coaching up Tad Hudson to get the start at quarterback. Hudson was a four-star recruit two seasons ago. North Carolina signed him, but Hudson transferred to Coastal Carolina this spring. Given home field, a good ground attack and being an intriguing prospect facing a bad defense, I believe Hudson will do well.  

UTSA isn't exactly some powerhouse. The Roadrunners went 6-6 playing in the weak American Athletic Conference. They were outgained both on a total game basis and yard-per-yard basis.

The Roadrunners shouldn't be this high of a road favorite plain and simple. So I'm going against the line move and backing Coastal Carolina.

The class difference between these two teams is not reflected in the point spread. The Eagles hold edges on the Commanders at every position, including quarterback now that Jalen Hurts is back on the same page with ace wide receivers, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. 

Philadelphia is the best team in the NFC with a franchise-record 10 consecutive victories. The Eagles have won all of these games by four or more points. 

The Commanders rank 25th in run defense. Saquon Barkley leads the NFL in rushing by 214 yards. 

The Eagles' defense has gotten much better as the team is now comfortable executing ace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio's system. 

Philadelphia has held its last six opponents to an average of 15.3 points a game. Jayden Daniels doesn't have the skill position weapons the Eagles have. His offensive line is much worse than Philadelphia's, too, and he's facing a much tougher defense. 

The price is cheap to get the Eagles.

Cal Irvine is 10-1 and has revenge for a 66-62 loss to Duquesne last season.

Cal Irvine is much better than the Dukes this season. The Anteaters shoot better, are the superior rebounding team and make 84 percent of their free throws compared to the Dukes, who make less than 65 percent of their free throws.

The Anteaters are 4-1 on the road while the Dukes have dropped four of their past five home contests.

Marquette has had four days to stew about a loss to Dayton in its last game.

The Golden Eagles are far superior to Butler and I want them off a loss playing at home. 

Marquette is 7-0 at home, 5-1-1 ATS. The Golden Eagles' average home win has been by 23.7 points. 

Butler has a losing point spread record. The Bulldogs lost their last game to Wisconsin, 83-74, at a neutral site. That was their third straight defeat. Early in the season, they lost at home to Austin Peay as a 17-point favorite. 

By contrast, Marquette beat Wisconsin, 88-74, at home. 

Class difference, home-court and motivation should all factor in Marquette covering this number.

Now that Matt Eberflus is gone, my vote for worst NFL head coach is Antonio Pierce of the Raiders.

Not that Pierce has much to work with since the Raiders give up the second-most points in the NFL, rank last in rushing, turn the ball over the third-highest amount and only have one star defensive player, Maxx Crosby.

Make that zero stars on defense as Crosby is now out for the season with an ankle injury.

Atlanta is a mediocre team. But mediocre is enough to beat the Raiders by a touchdown especially considering the situation.

More than likely the Raiders are going to be forced to start third-string QB Desmond Ridder. The Falcons certainly know how to defend Ridder, who is mobile but inaccurate and highly-turnover prone. Ridder started 13 games for the Falcons last season before Atlanta finally gave up on him.

The Falcons' pass rush has picked up considerably during their last two games. Atlanta has recorded nine sacks during this span. If  Aidan O'Connell is somehow able to play on a bad knee - and he's doubtful - the Raiders would have more of a downfield threat but no mobility at quarterback.

The Raiders have no above average weapons for their quarterbacks except tight end Brock Bowers. Las Vegas hasn't broken the 20-point barrier in nine of its last 10 games.

Kirk Cousins could lose his starting position if he doesn't play better for Atlanta. He has far more weapons than the Las Vegas quarterbacks do and is facing a Raiders defense that allows an average of 27.8 points per game - and that was with Crosby, one of the NFL's elite pass rushers.

The Raiders don't have much of a home field edge either with Las Vegas being a tourist destination and being in a dome with controlled settings, which is what the Falcons are used to.

Bryce Young and Carolina are much improved. Now the Panthers have reached the stage where they can lose close games. Carolina does not know how to win. So the Panthers should not be favored.

This is uncharted waters for the Panthers, who haven't been chalk since 2022. 

Dallas is down, its playoff hopes slim. But the Cowboys are not mathematically eliminated yet. Mike McCarthy is fighting for his coaching life. 

The Cowboys will have motivation. They have the best skill position player on the field, CeeDee Lamb, and the top defensive player, Micah Parsons, who is back from injury and has 3 1/2 sacks in his last three games. Parsons could wreak havoc on a bad Carolina offensive line. 

Rico Dowdle has put together the first two 100-yard rushing games of his career the past two weeks. He'll be running against the worst run defense in the league. Carolina gives up 170 yards per game on the ground and 4.97 yards per carry. The Panthers, by contrast, are thin at running back with their No. 2, 3 and 4 running backs all hurt. 

Dallas has put up an average of 27 points per game during its past three games. 

The Panthers, for all of their improvement, still have lost eight of their last 10 games.

Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.  

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a  backdoor capability.

There's too much of a defensive gap between these two teams for me to back the Rams. The timing isn't good either for LA.

San Francisco ranks third in fewest yards allowed and pass defense. The 49ers give up the fifth-fewest yards per play. 

By comparison, the Rams rank in the bottom-nine in most major defensive categories, including scoring, total defense, pass defense, yards per play and run defense. 

The Rams had no answer for the Bills this past Sunday giving up 44 points and 445 yards. Yet they still won. But now the Rams have to travel on a short week. 

The prideful 49ers are in must-win mode at 6-7. They regained their confidence returning home last week and smashing the Bears, 38-13, after losing on the road to the Bills and Packers the previous two games.

The Hawks' 28th defensive rating caught up to them in their last game. Atlanta lost, 141-111, to the Nuggets at home this past Sunday.

I don't see the Knicks beating the Hawks by 30 points. Just double-digits.

New York is by far the superior defensive team - allowing an average of 103 points in its last six games - at home and much the healthier team.

Atlanta has four of its top five scorers banged-up. Jalen Johnson and Bogdan Bogdanovic may not even be able to play.

The Knicks are 5-1 in their last six games. Their past six wins at home have come by an average of 18.3 points.

There is just one NBA team who is unbeaten at home - Orlando. Unfortunately for the Magic this game is at Milwaukee. The Magic are 2-6 ATS as a road underdog. They have really struggled in Milwaukee, too, losing 19 of the last 21 times there. Orlando last beat the Bucks at Milwaukee in 2019.

The Bucks are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kris Middleton are expected to play in this Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinals matchup. Orlando, however, is without its two best players, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner.

The Magic are averaging 101.5 points in their last four away from home games. The Bucks have produced at least 122 points in four of their past five home games.

Milwaukee has too much firepower for Orlando to stay within this number.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are 11-1. They are at the highest elite level, several notches above the Chargers. Given three to 3 1/2 points for home field advantage, why then is Kansas City barely more than a field goal home favorite against Los Angeles? 

Why indeed? 

The Chargers beat the Falcons on the road inside a dome last week despite only gaining 187 yards facing a team with the fewest sacks in the league. No way will the Chargers be able to get away with that against the Chiefs on the road.

The warm-weather Chargers are looking at temperatures in the 30's with wind in the 10-15 miles per hour range for this Sunday night game in one of the toughest road venues in football. 

The Chargers are without their only decent running back, versatile J.K. Dobbins, and aren't likely to have their only decent receiver either with Ladd McConkey dealing with shoulder and knee injuries. Jim Harbaugh has turned Justin Herbert into more of a game manager than gunslinger and Herbert doesn't have the weapons to compete against Patrick Mahomes. 

Kansas City gives up the eighth-fewest points and yards per game. The Chiefs rank No. 3 in run defense. 

LA's strength is pass defense. The Chargers might have the best secondary in the league. However, the Chargers' run defense is merely average. They especially have trouble against opponents who employ a two tight end system like the Chiefs do. 

Kansas City should be able to run effectively against LA especially with Isiah Pacheco getting the rust off like he did last week. He and Kareem Hunt provide the Chiefs with a better than average 1-2 running punch. The Chiefs are back healthy at offensive tackle, too, with the return from injury of D.J. Humphries.
  
A strong ground game will allow Mahomes to pick his spots and lead to the Chiefs' seventh straight victory over the Chargers. 

I've been following and covering UNLV football for 40 years and I haven't seen a better coaching job than what Barry Odom has done with the Rebels this season. Huge kudos to him.

However, I don't see the Rebels staying within a field goal of Boise State. They couldn't do it when they hosted the Broncos losing, 29- 24. Boise State didn't play that well either and Ashton Jeanty was somewhat held in check.

Now the Broncos are home with motivation this being the Mountain West Conference Championship Game. Boise State buried the Rebels, 44- 20, in last year's Mountain West title game, which was played in Las Vegas.

The only team to beat Boise State this season is top-ranked Oregon, which defeated the Broncos by three points in Oregon. Boise State is unbeaten at home winning by an average margin of 25 points.

UNLV relies on a strong ground attack and opportunistic defense. Boise State, though, ranks 17th in run defense and has committed only eight turnovers, seventh-fewest in the nation.

If there's a time to step in against the Lions this is it. Detroit is getting a lot of deserved love riding a 10-game winning streak. Dan Campbell is everybody's coaching darling.

But with little fanfare, the Packers are 7-1 in their last eight games. They also happen to be 18-2 in the month of December under Matt LaFleur.

The major reason, though, why I like the Packers to spring the upset is multiple injuries to the Lions. Detroit isn't likely to have offensive left tackle Taylor Decker.

Jordan Love has a bevy of weapons. They can take advantage of a Detroit defense down its best pass rusher, two of its top three linebackers and also has additional injuries in the line and secondary.

  The Lions have the No. 1 offense in the NFL. Green Bay's defense has been coming on, though, improving against the run and putting more pressure on the quarterback. The Packers are giving up fewer than 16 points a game during their last three games.

Maryland is 7-1 with its lone loss coming to 15th-ranked Marquette by four points. The Terrapins are better than Ohio State and playing at home. That combination should mean a point spread cover here.

Ohio State needs to shake off a 91-90 home loss to underdog Pittsburgh this past Friday. The Panthers pulled the upset on a 3-pointer at the buzzer. Ohio State is a bad free throw shooting team and it bit them against Pittsburgh.

Maryland is a much better free throw shooting team than the Buckeyes and the Terrapins commit four fewer fouls per game.

The Terrapins have revenge, too, for a 79-75 double overtime road loss to Ohio State last February.

The Pelicans have lost eight in a row, five by 11 points or more. Their injured list is longer than my wife's grocery list. This marks the Pelicans' third game in four days days and second on consecutive days.

New Orleans' last three losses have been by an average of 23.3 points.

So I don't see the Pelicans being competitive against the Hawks given the situation and their lack of depth due to injuries.

Unlike the Pelicans, the Hawks are healthy and proven. Atlanta upset the Cavaliers twice last week sweeping a home-and-away series. The Hawks got their letdown game out of the way with a 3-point road win against the Hornets two days ago.

Atlanta is a top-10 scoring team. New Orleans is a way below average defensive team. The Hawks are coming on riding their first three-game win streak of the season. I don't see them slipping here against such an outmanned foe.

Minnesota is not nearly as good as its 9-2 record. The Vikings were fortunate to play the Jaguars, Titans and Bears in their last three games. The combined record of those teams is 9-24 yet Minnesota only beat Jacksonville by five points and needed overtime to subdue Chicago.

The Vikings are due for a loss - and it comes here. Getting points with the Cardinals is just a nice bonus.

Yes, Arizona laid an egg on the road against the Seahawks this past week. The Cardinals also had trouble playing in Green Bay. But this game is inside. That's a major plus for Kyler Murray and his bevy of weapons. Arizona had won four in a row, including defeating the Chargers and Dolphins, before losing to Seattle.

The Cardinals have surrendered just five touchdowns in their last five games. That's the best in the NFL during that span. Arizona also has 14 sacks in its past three games. The Vikings could be down to their third-string offensive left tackle with Christian Darrisaw out for the season and backup Cam Robinson questionable with a foot injury.

Minnesota has been on the road during the last three weeks. So the Vikings' home advantage is somewhat negated by the family/friends distraction factor, especially coming home during Thanksgiving week.

If the Chiefs are going to cover one big point spread this season it's this game.

The Raiders are as bad as their 2-9 record shows. Las Vegas is turning back to immobile Aidan C'Connell after losing Gardner Minshew for the season because of a broken collarbone suffered last week. O'Connell has been out the last four games because of a broken thumb on his passing hand. O'Connell has admitted that his thumb is not 100 percent.

O'Connell can not expect any help from a ground game that is the worst in the NFL. Because of this early Friday start, O'Connell only was able to go through one walkthrough practice. I don't see O'Connell, or the poorly-coached Raiders, being ready for this game.

The Chiefs aren't going to lack motivation for this special stand-alone NFL Friday game, especially after the Raiders upset the Chiefs in Kansas City on Christmas Day last season.

BYU had been living dangerously. They were lucky to have snuck past Utah in a controversial, 22-21, win two weeks ago. The Cougars had their unbeaten bubble finally pricked by underdog Kansas in a home loss last week. 

That loss to the 4-6 Jayhawks confirmed what many believe, including myself, that the Cougars were overrated. 

Now BYU faces one of the most improved teams in the country, 21st-ranked Arizona State in Tempe, Ariz. 

Arizona State is tied for the third-best point spread record in the country at 8-2. Sun Devils head man Kenny Dillingham is a coach of the year candidate. 

It often happens that when an unbeaten team loses their first game midseason-to-late in the year, it loses the next game. It happened to Iowa State, Liberty, Navy and Pittsburgh, all of whom opened 5-0 or better. 

I see it happening to BYU here. 

BYU and Arizona State have played six common opponents. BYU went 3-3 ATS against those foes, while Arizona State covered all six. 

The Sun Devils have the superior run defense and a better rushing offense. Their passing attack is strong, too, with quarterback Sam Leavitt throwing to his favorite target, Jordyn Tyson. 

This is a neutral site matchup being played in Charleston, S.C. as part of the Charleston Classic. Power rating-wise, I have Nevada as the much superior team. So I'm backing the Wolf Pack.

Nevada has a huge size advantage, has played the stronger schedule and is a much better defensive team than Vanderbilt.

The Commodores are averaging 91.5 points, but have played only one semi-decent team and that was California. Their three other victories came against cupcakes. The Commodores have played one of the 15 easiest schedules in the country.  

Vanderbilt is not highly thought of despite its 4-0 record. The Commodores were picked to finish last in the 16-team SEC in the league's preseason poll.

Nevada is a huge step-up for Vanderbilt. The Wolf Pack are well-balanced and more battle-tested. I expect them to have no problem covering this small number.

UCLA has rolled past three cupcakes at home. The one time this season the Bruins stepped up in class they lost to New Mexico, 72-64, as a short favorite at neutral site Henderson, Nev. 

The Bruins are going to get better. But right now they are laying too many points against spunky Idaho State, which has been undervalued by the oddsmaker going 4-0 ATS. 

UCLA fans are not giving the Bruins much home support. UCLA is averaging 4,694 fans, which ranks 17th out of the 18 Big Ten Conference teams in home attendance. Bruins fans don't get excited about bad matchups. 

Idaho State has played Arizona State and USC close, easily covering both road games. The Bengals were 17 1/2-point road 'dogs to Arizona State and lost, 55-48, and were plus 24 at USC losing, 75-69, to the Trojans. 

The Bengals lost as a road underdog to Fullerton and upset San Diego as a four-point road 'dog, 78-66. Idaho State is giving up just 64.2 points per game and is a solid rebounding team. 

Will the Bengals beat UCLA? No. But they can keep this game closer than this lopsided point spread. 

Golden State isn't just 10-2. The Warriors also have the best point spread record in the Western Conference at 9-3.

The Warriors are 8-1 in their last nine games since getting upset at home by the Clippers on Oct. 27 as 9-point favorites.

Now the point spread from that game is cut in half and Golden State has revenge motivation and a good scheduling spot.

The Clippers beat the Jazz, 116-105, at home on Sunday. This is LA's third game in four days. Golden State was idle during the weekend.

LA has been up-and-down all season with a 6-7 record. Golden State is several levels above the Clippers.

Great job by Mike Tomlin and the Steelers this season. But I don't see the Steelers continuing their magic in this step-up matchup. 

Pittsburgh is riding a four-game win streak after nipping the Commanders by one point this past Sunday. The Steelers' previous three victories were against the Giants, Jets and Raiders, whose combined record is 7-22. 

Baltimore is in the argument for best team in the NFL. Certainly the Ravens are the most explosive. Lamar Jackson has thrown 24 touchdown passes to just two interceptions. Thanks to Jackson, rushing leader Derrick Henry and a bevy of quality receivers, the Ravens are No. 1 in the NFL in points, yards and rushing yards. The Steelers just surrendered 27 points to the Commanders. The previous week they gave up 22 points to the punchless Giants. No way can they contain the Ravens.

Pittsburgh is reliant upon the run. Baltimore has the top run defense in the NFL. Russell Wilson is far from his prime. He can't keep up with Jackson. Pittsburgh ranks 26th in passing. 

The Ravens play well on the road, too, going 10-3 during their past 13 away contests. The Ravens defense is dropping way down in quarterback class facing Wilson after going against Joe Burrow. 

Both teams own losing records. But there's a difference. Houston is 3-1 in its last four games and has pulled upsets in its last two games beating Kansas State and Utah. Arizona has lost and failed to cover its past five games.

The Cougars have momentum and confidence. Arizona doesn't. Houston also has found the right quarterback.

Zeon Chriss has sparked the Cougars since replacing Donovan Smith halfway through a 30-19 victory against TCU four games ago. Chriss sets up the pass because he's such an effective runner. He's made the Cougars' offense much better than their season statistics look like.

Arizona surrenders nearly 170 yards on the ground, fourth-worst in the Big 12. The Wildcats have lost three key defenders due to injuries.

The Wildcats have a superstar wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan, but their quarterback play and coaching have been a disappointment. Since the second week of the season, the Wildcats are averaging only 17.2 points a game. Houston surrenders the 23rd-fewest yards per game in the nation.

This is a Friday night game, but attendance at Arizona could be down for this football game because its basketball team has a marquee game against Wisconsin that starts about 75 minutes before kickoff.

All the credit in the world to Jayden Daniels and the Commanders for their surprising 7-3 record. But they aren't nearly as good as the Eagles are from top to bottom and face a brutal scheduling spot here.

The Eagles are back on track winning five in a row. Jalen Hurts has far better skill position talent than Daniels. While Daniels is looking like the Rookie of the Year, Hurts quietly has accounted for 16 touchdowns in his last five games. Philadelphia is averaging 31.7 points in its past four games.

Not only does Hurt have elite receiving targets, but Saquon Barkley should eat well, too, facing a Washington run defense that ranks fifth-from-the-bottom.

While the Eagles had an easy time against the Cowboys last week, the Commanders suffered a tough 28-27 home loss to the Steelers that could be a burst to their growing confidence and swagger.

It's always tough being the road team on Thursday night. The short week also might prevent running back Brian Robinson Jr. and cornerback Marshon Lattimore from playing after missing last week due to injuries.

Bowling Green defeated Western Michigan on the road by 24 points last season. I expect the Falcons to win by double-digits hosting Western Michigan this season. 

Both teams have strong offensive capabilities. I trust Bowling Green's defense far more than the Broncos' defense, though.

The Falcons have scored 27 or more points in six of their nine games. They have one of the MAC's most talented running backs in Terion Stewart.

Western Michigan gives up an average of 34.7 points a game and ranks 124th in the metric of defensive success rate allowed. 

Yes the 49ers are 4-4. No one doubts their talent, though, especially since they are going to be reinforced coming off their bye with Christian McCaffrey, Jauan Jennings and kicker Jake Moody all likely to return here. Deebo Samuel should be a go, too.

Let the record show that San Francisco is 16-2 following a Week 9 bye during the past two seasons.

Tampa Bay's defense is way down, ranking 28th in points allowed and 30th in pass defense. Tampa Bay's gassed defense was on the field for 83 plays this past Monday night in an overtime road loss to the Chiefs. Now they're playing on one less day of rest. Unlike the rested 49ers, the Buccaneers haven't had their bye yet. This will be their 10th straight week of action.

Baker Mayfield has compensated for the loss of his two star wideouts, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, by targeting tight end Cade Otton and his running backs out of the backfield. The 49ers' linebackers, though, are excellent in covering tight ends and running backs. The 49ers have a defensive passer rating of 78.7, fourth-best in the NFL.

It doesn't matter if it's Jordan Love or Malik Willis behind center for Green Bay. The Packers are not at the level of the Lions and are going to lose this game.

Detroit has won and covered in its last five games, peaking right now. The Lions are averaging 43 points a game during their past four games.

During the past two weeks, Green Bay was barely able to squeak past the Texans at home and then nipped the 2-6 Jaguars by three points last Sunday on a field goal at the gun.

I doubt the Packers risk Love since they have their bye next week. Love is on pace to throw 28 interceptions this season. He might be gimpy if he plays. Willis can't throw downfield. The Packers would have no backdoor capability if Willis gets the start.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery have become the best running back tandem in football. Jared Goff is the highest rated passer in the NFC. Amon-Ra St. Brown gives Detroit the best wide receiver on the field. The Lions hold a special teams edge, too.

Green Bay's defense isn't that good, nor does it produce a consistent pass rush. The Packers have been propped up by an unsustainable 19 takeaways, which is No. 1 in the NFL. It's more than the Packers had all of last season.

Goff's matchup gets even better if cornerback Jaire Alexander and versatile defensive back Evan Williams can't go for Green Bay. They were both injured against the Jaguars.

Hawaii can prove tough at home given its built-in travel advantage.
 
But when it comes to playing on the mainland, the Rainbow Warriors clearly are fade material. Hawaii is 1-14 in its last 15 road games, including 0-3 SU and ATS this season. Only once in their past eight away games have the Rainbow Warriors managed to cover the spread.

I don't see them doing it here against Fresno State. 

The teams last met two seasons ago in Fresno. The Bulldogs won, 55-13. Things have changed since then with Jeff Tedford no longer  Fresno State's coach. He resigned before this season due to health concerns. Tom Skipper is the interim coach and the Bulldogs have picked up their pace.

Fresno State has defeated San Jose State and Nevada during the past two weeks to move its record to 5-3. Mikey Keene was 30-of-41 passing while throwing for three touchdowns and 275 yards against San Jose State last week, his best game of the season. Keene has the receiving depth to exploit Hawaii's 73rd-ranked pass defense.

I don't expect Hawaii quarterback Brayden Schager to match Keene and Fresno State's offense. The Rainbow Warriors average only 21.5 points, which ranks them 110th. They are 123rd in rushing and 103rd in yards per game. 

The Bulldogs force an average of two turnovers a game and rank among the top-10 in interceptions. Hawaii, by contrast, has only four takeaways. 

I like the Pacers getting this many points at home even if center Myles Turner is ruled out. He's questionable with an ankle injury.

Indiana has playoff revenge and has been pointing to this home matchup ever since being eliminated by the Celtics last season.

Boston has won five of the past six games in the series. However, all of the games have been close except one. Boston's margin of victory in four of their victories against the Pacers during this span have been by five points in the regular season, five in overtime in the playoffs and three points each during the final two playoff games. That's an average loss of four points.

The Pacers have lost three in a row with the last two coming to the Magic on the road by four points and to the 76ers in overtime. They are in need of a big win. The Pacers certainly know the Celtics well and can hurt them with their backcourt quickness.  

The Celtics are fat and happy being 4-0 and off a satisfying double-digit home win against the Bucks from two days ago.

Look for the Mavericks to be a step slow playing in their first back-to-back game and in action for the fourth time in six days.

Luka Doncic was held out of preseason. He's still trying to get the rust off shooting just 36.1 percent from the field and 30.3 percent from 3-point range.

The Timberwolves have won two in a row since losing to the Lakers opening night. They are one of the better defensive teams in the league.

Minnesota is in a highly favorable situational spot, too, having been idle since Saturday. This is the second of three straight home games for the Timberwolves.

Julius Randle has found his comfort zone with his new Minnesota team. He's shot 22-of-33 (67%) from the floor in the last two games, averaging 28.5 points during this time frame.

When Tua Tagovailoa is healthy and starting, the Dolphins are one of the most explosive teams in the NFL. Tagovailoa makes all his speedy skill position weapons dangerous.

Well Tagovailoa is back in the lineup and Miami should get a huge spark from that, especially being home. The Dolphins face a bottom-tier Cardinals defense that has multiple injuries in their defensive front seven and has a weak secondary that ranks 26th. One of the defenders the Cardinals just lost was linebacker Dennis Gardeck, who is their team leader in sacks.

The Cardinals are traveling cross-country on a short week after upsetting the Chargers at home this past Monday night. Arizona's offense is at its worst playing on grass outdoors.

Note, too, that the last time Kyler Murray won consecutive starts was 2021. It's a string of 11 losses in a row following a victory.

One of the best below-the-radar coaching jobs being turned in this season is by UL-Monroe's first-year head coach Bryant Vincent. This isn't the Warhawks of 2023, who finished last year losing their final 10 games.

Vincent has Monroe off to a 5-1 start both straight-up and against the spread. This includes a 21-19 victory against James Madison as a 19-point 'dog. The Warhawks' only loss was 51-3 to fifth-ranked Texas. That loss has skewed the Warhawks' overall statistics.

South Alabama is the opposite. The 3-4 Jaguars haven't beaten a quality team. Their statistics are artificially high because of an 87-10 victory against Northwestern State, an 0-8 team that plays in the FCS Southland Conference.

The lone time South Alabama stepped up this season was when it played LSU. The Jaguars lost, 42-10, and gave up 677 yards to the Tigers.

Monroe has surrendered more than 300 yards to just one other team besides Texas. The Warhawks have a stout defense, one of the Sun Belt Conference's top running backs in Ahmad Hardy and have an improving quarterback, redshirt freshman Aidan Armenta.

The Toronto Argonauts are 10-7. Edmonton is 6-11. But I fully expect the Elks to beat Toronto.

How's that?

This is the final week of the regular season. Toronto is in the playoffs. Edmonton is not and won't be. The game is meaningless for the Argonauts. Toronto clinched second-place in the East with a 38-31 win against Ottawa last week. It would be foolish for the Argonauts to risk injuries to starters in this game. So I expect many to sit, or play very little.

On the flip side, I expect a big effort from Edmonton. The Elks were idle last week. This is their last game and it comes at home. They have revenge for a three-point road loss to Toronto earlier in the season.

Edmonton has been up-and-down, but the Elks are more than capable. The Elks upset Calgary on the road in their last game. They are a youthful team with many jobs on the line for next year.

Quarterback Tre Ford is one of those Edmonton players auditioning for next season. He's a dual threat and can cause damage, especially against non-starters.

The Bulls may be trading some of their best players during the season. But for now Chicago has a healthy lineup with point guard Lonzo Ball, who missed last season, joining Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Josh Giddey, Coby White, Torrey Craig and Patrick Williams among others.

That's a deep rotation and one worth backing against New Orleans, which closed last season failing to cover eight of the past nine times it was favored.

The Pelicans weren't a great home team either going 21-19. They won't have perhaps their most dangerous 3-point shooter as Trey Murphy III is out with a hamstring injury.

The Knicks enter this NBA season with championship aspirations. That's all and good. But the Celtics are the defending world champions.

Boston has superstars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. The Celtics have tremendous chemistry and hold a huge bench edge against the Knicks.

The Knicks' depth, short to begin with anyways, lost maybe their best reserve, Precious Achiuwa. He suffered a hamstring injury on Sunday and will be out at least a couple of weeks.

The Celtics went 37-4 at home last season. I find this number to be short.

Iowa still has its great defense. Only this season the Hawkeyes can actually produce points. 

The Hawkeyes have scored 31 or more points in four of their six games. They just put up 40 points against Washington last Saturday. 

Michigan State can't match the Hawkeyes in the trenches. The Spartans are down after being buried by Oregon and Ohio State during their past two games.

The Spartans are turnover-prone committing 14. Their quarterback, Aiden Chiles, has been intercepted nine times. 

The Hawkeyes have a top-10 running back in Kaleb Johnson. Iowa also rates a strong special teams edge. 

Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has a strong history when favored by 6 1/2 points or fewer going 37-23 ATS. His Hawkeyes also have covered 78 percent the past 23 times as a road favorite against fellow Big Ten teams. 

Purdue is one of the three worst teams in the Big Ten Conference in a down year for the Big Ten.

But the Boilermakers are better after making a quarterback switch to redshirt freshman Ryan Browne and they draw Oregon at home while the Ducks are dealing with a huge situational disadvantage.

So getting four touchdowns with the Boilermakers is enough for me to get involved.

The Ducks moved to No. 2 in the country in The Associated Press Top 25 rankings after upsetting Ohio State at home, 32-31, at home. Now, six days later, the Ducks are back in action after traveling three time zones losing two days of practice time because of the Friday start. It's going to be difficult for the Ducks to get highly motivated for this matchup after their thrilling, emotional win against the Buckeyes.

This is by far Oregon's longest road trip of the season. The Ducks' other road games were flying to Los Angeles to play UCLA and a less-than-an-hour drive to face in-state rival Oregon State.

Big Ten teams traveling two or more time zones have covered just 31 percent of the time in 13 instances this season.

Yes, Oregon holds a monster talent edge. Browne, though, is a huge upgrade on a disappointing Hudson Card. Browne accounted for 415 total yards in a 50-49 loss to Illinois last week. Purdue averaged 9.2 yards per play against a respectable Illinois defense.

I want no part of the rudderless Raiders. They have serious morale issues, a bad head coach and a bottom-tier quarterback situation.
The Steelers are a well-coached, defensive-minded power team. A good quarterback can beat the Steelers like Dak Prescott did last week. But the Raiders lack that.

Las Vegas is switching QB's going with Aidan O'Connell. He's not any better than Gardner Minshew. Both are backup quality. Davante Adams remains out leaving the Raiders with woeful wide receivers to go with below par running backs. 

The Raiders are going against a Pittsburgh defense that yields the second-fewest points per game at 14.6. 

The Steelers should do enough offensively to cover this number. Bo Nix, after all, posted a 117.2 passer rating against the Raiders last week in Denver's, 34-18, victory. The Raiders had 11 penalties in that game. Antonio Pierce has long worn out the initial spark he provided the Raiders when he first took over as head coach last year. He's a bottom-five coach in my book, while Mike Tomlin is a future Hall of Famer. 

Pittsburgh was nipped by Dallas in the final minute last week. The Steelers are 8-3 ATS following a loss. 

The Steelers are heavily run-oriented. The Raiders rank 28th in scoring defense and 22nd in run defense. They are now without star defensive lineman Christian Wilkins. 

The Raiders are minus 7 in turnovers. The Steelers are plus 4. 

Hard to believe Winnipeg opened 2-6 with the way the Blue Bombers are playing now. They've won eight in a row and top the CFL power rankings.

I'm not going to stand in the Blue Bombers' way as they host Toronto on Friday. Not only are the Blue Bombers looking to lock up the Western Division, but this is a revenge spot. The Argonauts nipped Winnipeg, 16-14 in overtime, at home on July 27. The Blue Bombers haven't lost since.

Toronto is 6-2 at home, but 2-5 on the road. The Argos are 4-4 during their past eight games.  

The Argos have a below average pass defense. If they load up on pass coverage trying to stop Zach Collaros, who has come up big during the second half of this season, they'll be vulnerable to Brady Oliveira, who leads the CFL in rushing.

This line is too respectful of the Panthers. Are they a better team with Andy Dalton at QB? Yes. Are they still the worst team in the NFC? Yes, too.

Dalton isn't some savior. He's an over-the-hill, mediocre starting QB who only has looked decent in comparison to Bryce Young.

Defense, though, is the Panthers' biggest problem. Carolina is surrendering the most points in the NFL giving up 32.3 a game. The Panthers' defense is likely to get even worse as injuries take a toll. They are without their best defensive lineman, Derrick Brown, and just this past week lost their two best linebackers, Shaq Thompson and Josey Jewell.

The Bears have a top-10 defense. They are very opportunistic, too, ranking fourth in takeaways.

Caleb Williams is improving each week. The Bears displayed a balanced attack last week, which can only help Williams as he now faces the easiest defense of his early NFL career.

The Colts are 2-2. The Jaguars are 0-4, the lone winless team in the NFL. But Jacksonville isn't a terrible 0-4. The Jaguars are 2-2 ATS and have losses to the Dolphins, Browns and Texans by a combined margin of 12 points, an average loss of four points. A goal line fumble cost the Jaguars probably a sure win against Miami when the Dolphins were at full strength with Tua Tagovailoa.

The oddsmaker believes it's time for the Jaguars to win making them the favorite. I agree. 

The Colts, a dome team, haven't won at Jacksonville since 2014. Indy has dropped nine consecutive road games against the Jaguars, counting one in London. There is a high possibility of rain for this game. That's a plus in Jaguars' favor being an outdoor team. 

Jacksonville not only is due and in must-win mode win, but the timing is good. The Colts are severely hobbled. Jonathan Taylor is out and Anthony Richardson isn't likely to play leaving the Jaguars to defend against immobile Joe Flacco.

The Colts are even more banged-up on defense. They are down several defensive backs and linemen, including three-time Pro Bowler DeForest Buckner. The Colts rank 31st in run defense. The Jaguars are averaging 5.7 yards per run, which rates second in the NFL.

This isn't the good Troy teams of past years. The Trojans lost a lot of quality players from last season. They are 1-4 with their lone win coming against Florida A&M.

The Trojans average just 21.4 points a game. They don't have the firepower, nor defense, to keep up with high-scoring Texas State. Troy only has one defensive takeaway, too, so turnovers shouldn't be a problem for Texas State.

The Bobcats have Jordan McCloud, who I consider to be the best QB in the Sun Belt Conference. They also have a tremendous offensive-minded coach in GJ Kinne.

No way, though, does Texas State take the Trojans lightly. Not after the Bobcats blew a 22-0 lead in a 40-39 loss to Sam Houston State last week. I see the far more talented Bobcats taking out their frustrations on the hapless Trojans.

First-year head coach Mike Macdonald has gotten the Seahawks out to a 3-0 start. Macdonald is a defensive mastermind and appears to be a promising head coach.

But this is a bad spot for the Seahawks, who have been fortunate to have begun with three easy opponents: Broncos, Patriots - who they beat in overtime - and Dolphins minus Tua Tagovailoa getting Skyler Thompson and Tim Boyle instead. The Seahawks committed 11 penalties in their victory against Miami, but the Dolphins were done in by totally inept quarterback play. That won't be the case here with Jared Goff and his bevy of weapons and excellent offensive line.

The Lions hold Super Bowl aspirations. The Seahawks are far from that stage. This is a huge step-up game for Seattle.

Detroit has revenge for a 37-31 overtime home loss to the Seahawks last year. The Lions also catch Seattle down four key members of their defensive front seven. The Seahawks also might be missing starting linebacker Jerome Baker, who is questionable with a hamstring injury. Out for Seattle are Byron Murphy, Leonard Williams, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe. The Seahawks don't have much of a pass rush without Nwosu and Mafe.

The Seahawks do expect to get back running back Kenneth Walker III. But offensive right tackle George Fant remains out. Backup tackle Stone Forsythe replaces Fant and has the primary responsibility of blocking emerging superstar Aidan Hutchinson, who entered this week leading the NFL in sacks with 6 1/2.

Three days and counting for the Nationals. That's when their dreadful season will be finished. The Nationals are not exactly going out in style. They have lost nine of their last 10 games. Washington is averaging a puny 1.6 runs in its last six games.

The Phillies have motivation trailing the Dodgers by one game for the No. 1 seed in the National League. Philadelphia is 25 games better than the Nationals.

So I see this as a kill spot for the Phillies. The oddsmaker does, too. So to reduce the heavy juice, I feel confident laying 1 1/2 runs on the run line. Of the Nationals' last 13 losses, 10 have come by more than one run.

The Phillies rank fourth in runs and batting average. They are averaging 5.9 runs in their last seven games.

Ranger Suarez has been a dependable starter for Philadelphia with a 12-7 record, 3.15 ERA and 1.16 WHIP.

Washington's Trevor Williams has been injured for two months. This will be only his second start since July 25. He's a journeyman who has pitched for four teams since 2020. Williams has had an ERA above 5.00 in two of the past three years.

And so it will end tonight for Rookie-of-the-Year Caitlin Clark and the Indiana Fever. Thanks to Clark's generational talents, the Fever made the playoffs after going 13-27 last year.

I had the Sun in Game 1 and I'm backing them again after their, 93-69, rocking chair winner in Game 1 of this two-out-of-three series this past Sunday.

This is what I wrote before Sunday's game: There are four major factors working against the Fever now: Playoff inexperience, being on the road, facing the veteran Sun - the top defensive team in the WNBA - and the horrendous coaching of Christie Sides.

All of those factors were evident in Game 1.

The Sun are one of four elite teams in the WNBA along with the Liberty, Aces and Lynx. The rest of teams are tiers below, including the Fever. Connecticut opened this series having competed in 222 postseason games. The Fever's playoff experience consisted of 19 games, none from any of their starters. Indiana hadn't made the playoffs since 2016.

Connecticut led the WNBA in defense. Indiana ranked second-to-last. The Sun held the Fever 16 points below their season average. The magnificent Clark could manage only 11 points on 4-of-17 shooting from the field.

The Sun have now hosted the Fever three times this year. They've won all three games by margins of 17, 21 and 24 points. That's an average win margin of 20.6 points.

The oddsmaker only made a slight adjustment in the point spread. It's not nearly enough for the Fever to cover.

Do I expect Seattle to upset the Aces in Las Vegas and keep its playoff hopes alive down 1-0 in this best two-of-three series?

No. But it wouldn't shock me if the Storm pulled the upset. I'll certainly take this many points to find out.

Seattle is a savvy, veteran team that has a top-four defense and star power with Skylar Diggins-Smith, Nneka Ogwumike and Jewell Loyd, last year's WNBA leading scorer.

The Storm were right with the Aces in Sunday's Game 1 - until the fourth quarter. The Storm collapsed in the final period scoring only two free throws while going 0-for-12 from the field.

Yet the Aces still only won by 11 points, 78-67. Las Vegas shot 43 percent from the floor and 39 percent from 3-point range. Seattle shot 36.8 percent from the floor and missed 12 of its 16 3-point attempts for 25 percent.

You could tell from A'ja Wilson's postgame interview that Seattle was a tough opponent and that she and the rest of the Aces expect a much closer game.

I find this line short in a matchup of the defending Super Bowl champions against the Falcons, who are trying to avoid a seventh straight losing season.

The line is short because the Chiefs will be without their best running back, injured Isiah Pacheco, and the Falcons pulled off a dramatic road victory against the Eagles this past Monday night.

It means the Falcons are on a short week and in a letdown spot.

Andy Reid can mix and match running backs to replace Pacheco, who is not an elite player. Patrick Mahomes is. Mahomes has speedsters Rasheed Rice and Xavier Worthy to throw to on a fast track inside Atlanta's dome stadium. That makes Mahomes even more dangerous if that's possible.

Kirk Cousins played better than he did opening week coming back from his Achilles injury. Cousins isn't all the way back, though. His offensive line could encounter trouble from Kansas City's star defensive lineman Chris Jones, who could collapse the pocket on the immobile Cousins.

I don't see the Falcons being strong enough to trade points with Mahomes.

The Seahawks were getting stale under Pete Carroll. Mike Macdonald is a defensive whiz and a promising first-year head coach. I just don't trust his Seahawks laying more than a field goal in this spot. Seattle was fortunate to draw the Broncos and Patriots in its first two games. If it wasn't for a fourth quarter field goal miss by New England, the Seahawks probably would not have beaten the Patriots.

Yeah Tua Tagovailoa is out. I trust offensive guru Mike McDaniel to coach up Skylar Thompson. The Dolphins have had extra preparation time having played last Thursday, Thompson has been in Miami's system for the past three seasons and he has major weapons with De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Raheem Mostert could be back this week, too, adding to the skill position speed.

Thompson isn't close to Tagovailoa's accuracy, but he's mobile and doesn't have to throw pin-point passes with the speedy stars he has around him.

Seattle is dealing with a major injury, too. Kenneth Walker III missed last week due to an oblique injury. That's likely to cause him to miss this game, too, forcing another top-heavy passing attack from Seattle. The Seahawks are much better off when they are balanced. Miami ranks fifth in pass defense.

Don't be fooled by Edmonton's 5-8 record. The Elks are 5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS in their last six games, peaking at the right time. Their ground game has picked up and speedy dual threat Tre Ford is back at quarterback.

The Elks are averaging 35.1 points in their last six games. They are the best offensive team in the CFL now ranking first in points, rushing yards and No. 2 in total yards. The Elks are playing with tremendous confidence. Being at home is another plus.

Winnipeg can't match Edmonton's speed. The Blue Bombers are averaging 22.7 points in their last seven games. 

It is telling that five of the six writers on CFL.com, the official web site of the CFL, pick Edmonton to win. I concur. 

It was a great night for Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers Thursday night in Miami. Ohtani smacked three homers and stole two bases, thus becoming the first player in MLB history to hit 50 homers and steal 50 bases in a season. The Dodgers clinched a playoff spot with a 20-4 massacre of the Marlins.

Now the Dodgers play again - in Los Angeles. That means an early-morning cross country flight to take on a lowly opponent, the Rockies.

Colorado was idle Thursday. So the Rockies already were in LA ahead of the Dodgers - rested and ready. Colorado is 5-2 in its last seven games.

The Rockies will be pitching Kyle Freeland, who is in good form. Freeland has allowed two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts. He has a 2.00 ERA in his last three starts.

The Dodgers haven't announced their starting pitcher. He's not likely to be good since Jack Flaherty pitched last night and injuries have robbed the Dodgers of many of their former excellent starters. It probably will be a bullpen game for the Dodgers.

There would be a huge class difference in favor of the Jets if there weren't an injury factor and situational element to this game. But there is, making it even worse for New England.

The Patriots are traveling on a short week with a rookie head coach following an overtime game. Not only do the Patriots lack a downfield passing game - none of their wide receivers have averaged more than 31 receiving yards - but they have a cluster injury problem in their offensive line, which wasn't good to start.

New England will be missing the starting left side of its offensive line. They also could be down their center and right tackle. The Jets have defensive injuries. But their defense is deep enough to take advantage especially when they can stack the line knowing their secondary has no fear of Jacoby Brissett.

Aaron Rodgers has enough weapons to rely on to push the Jets' offense to win by more than a touchdown.

The Falcons have had six straight losing seasons. They don't look any better this season with an aging Kirk Cousins off major surgery and a weak defensive front seven.

I put the Eagles right up there with the 49ers as the best team in the NFC. Saquon Barkley upgraded an already stellar Eagles offense. Philly's defense should keep improving as the players get more acclimated to new and highly respected defensive coordinator Vic Fangio.

It's a drop in class for the Eagles' defense going from the Packers to the Falcons, especially given how bad Cousins looked opening week. Rusty from not having played in nearly a year, Cousins could throw for only 155 yards and threw two interceptions in an 18-10 loss to the Steelers. It wasn't just Cousins' poor statistics. He looked extremely shaky in the pocket, maybe not fully comfortable with his repaired torn Achilles injury.

Perhaps the Falcons could get away with a poor performance if they were playing one of their horrible NFC South Division opponents. But they're not. They are going to need their "A" game to stay close to the rested Eagles on the road and I don't see that happening.

Sure the Jets were a major disappointment opening week failing to step up against the 49ers. But now the Jets drop way down in class knowing they can't open the season 0-2.

Aaron Rodgers showed me enough that I'm confident he'll make a big difference in the Jets' offense. He's aided by a top-three running back in Breece Hall and a top-10 wide receiver, Garrett Wilson.

The Titans don't have anyone nearly that good at the skill positions. What they do have is a boneheaded second-year gunslinger quarterback in Will Levis. Not only is Levis inexperienced and inaccurate, but he's mistake-prone and not careful with the football.

The Jets have an elite defense despite not having holdout Hasson Reddick and looking bad against the 49ers. I expect the Jets' defense to dominate an overmatched Levis and a youthful Titans offensive line.

UCLA is down this season and Indiana is a rising team under new coach Curt Cignetti, who made James Madison a power before coming to Indiana. The Hoosiers have an underrated QB in Kurtis Rourke, who played in the MAC last year and thus wasn't that publicized.

UCLA barely got past a bad Hawaii team, 16-13, in their opener. Indiana is a big step up for the Bruins and I don't see them making that step up against an underrated Hoosiers squad that is much better than perceived.

I have to believe the Sky show up and play hard here after an embarrassing, 89-58, home loss to the Mystics this past Wednesday. Chicago has a one game lead on Washington and Atlanta for the final playoff spot. So there is incentive.

It's a weird scheduling spot for Minnesota. The Lynx last played at home on Sept. 1 when they defeated the Sky, 79-74. The Lynx then played three straight road games before returning home for this one game before heading back on the road to face the Liberty in New York on Sunday. That's a much bigger matchup for Minnesota. So it wouldn't be surprising if focus and concentration aren't all there for the Lynx.

Angel Reese is out for the season. However, the Sky still have three other good players with Chennedy Carter, rookie center Kamilla Cardoso, who draws more of the spotlight with Reese out, and underrated Isabelle Harrison, who has looked good since returning from injury.