Free Basketball Picks from the Worlds Best Handicappers

Stephen Nover ALL Sports Top Sides Picks

Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
03-25-17	Raptors +1 v. Mavs	Top	94-86	Win	100	17 h 25 m	Show
Toronto is playing with a lot of confidence, winners of four in a row. I consider the Raptors a better team than the Mavericks. That was proven just 12 days ago when Toronto blasted Dallas, 100-78. The Raptors outrebounded Dallas by 21 in that game. The Mavericks have ranked with the Kings as one of the worst rebounding teams since the All-Star break. Dirk Nowitzki can't cut it at center and the league has caught up to the Mavericks' youthful backcourt of Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell. Their play has tailed way off after being initially surprisingly good. DeMar DeRozan is on fire producing consecutive 40-point games. Serge Ibaka is back from a one-game suspension to further exploit the Mavericks' rebounding weakness. Toronto has proven it can still win without Kyle Lowery going 10-5 in his absence.
03-25-17	Xavier v. Gonzaga -7.5	Top	59-83	Win	100	14 h 41 m	Show
Xavier is on a surprisingly great run. Gonzaga has yet to play its "A" game in the NCAA Tournament. The due factor is going to kick in here. Look for the Bulldogs to roll past Xavier by double-digits. The 11th-seeded Musketeers kept their miracle of winning the NCAA Tournament alive by closing on a 9-0 run to steal a 73-71 win from second-seed Arizona Thursday. Xavier and LSU of 1987 are the only teams in tournament history to take out three top six seeds during their first three games. That takes a big toll, though. And this is a quick turnaround. It has been a great run for Xavier. Much props to the Musketeers, but I see their season ending here. The team has too many imperfections, a size disadvantage with just one starter taller than 6-foot-6 and a key injury that will hurt them here with starting point guard Edmond Sumner missing after being lost for the season with a knee injury sustained in late January. Standout wing Trevon Bluiett isn't 100 percent either from an ankle injury. Critics of Gonzaga said the Bulldogs couldn't handle West Virginia's pressure defense. Gonzaga did. Now the Bulldogs face Xavier's zone defenses. They'll be ready for that, too, with a necessary inside/outside game that ranked No. 2 in the country in field goal percentage and the 3-point accuracy to rank 68th in 3-point percentage.
03-24-17	UCLA v. Kentucky +1	Top	75-86	Win	100	16 h 31 m	Show
Youth will be served here and I side with Kentucky's talent over UCLA. Lonzo Ball has had to face a lot of distractions due in large part to his big-mouthed dad. Ball is a great talent, but Kentucky also has great talent in its backcourt - and more depth there. Much is being mentioned about the Bruins beating the Wildcats, 97-92, at Rupp Arena back in early December. That was an impressive victory for UCLA. It ended the Wildcats' 42-game home win streak. The Bruins also shot 53 percent from the floor while the Wildcats made just 41 percent of their field goals, which was a season-low at the time. Kentucky isn't going to shoot that bad again and the Bruins aren't going to be that hot again. The Wildcats have been playing outstanding defense holding eight of their last nine opponents to 70 or less points. Opponents have shot under 40 percent during this span against Kentucky. It's a big advantage for the Wildcats - even though they lost - to have played UCLA because now they are fully aware of how fast the Bruins' ball movement is. They won't be taken by surprise not to mention they have a huge revenge factor. The Wildcats are the more physical team. They've yet to play a strong game in the Tournament so far. I say that comes here.
03-24-17	Cavs -2.5 v. Hornets	Top	112-105	Win	100	11 h 31 m	Show
The Cavaliers are two levels higher than the Hornets and shouldn't lack for motivation after getting blown out by the Nuggets, 126-113, this past Wednesday. That cut Cleveland's lead to just one game over Boston for top record in the Eastern Conference. LeBron James is as brilliant as ever, Kyrie Irving is having a strong month and the Cavaliers are finally fully healthy with both Kevin Love and Kyle Korver back from injuries. Irving is averaging nearly 40 points in his last two games. The Cavaliers are 3-0 versus the Hornets this season with a winning margin being by an average of 10 points. The Hornets have failed to cover in 10 of their last 14 home contests
03-23-17	Purdue v. Kansas -5	Top	66-98	Win	100	62 h 56 m	Show
Losing in their opening game of the Big 12 Conference Tournament is the best thing that happened to Kansas. That was two weeks ago and extra rest and motivation by that early exit have propelled the Jayhawks to peak at just the right time. Kansas already is arguably the best team in the country and the Jayhawks have played extremely well in the NCAA Tournament blowing by UC-Davis and defeating Michigan State by 20 points. That pushed the Jayhawks' ATS mark to 6-1 when laying points in the NCAA Tourney. Now the Jayhawks get another Big Ten team, Purdue. The Boilermakers lack the Spartans Big Dance Sweet 16 pedigree and while their defense is solid, it ranks among the bottom in steals and forcing turnovers. Kansas has the superior offense and it's in full throttle. The Jayhawks are averaging 87 points during their last five games. The Boilermakers' backcourt can't match Kansas' guard trio of Frank Mason III, Josh Jackson and Devonte' Graham. Those three are averaging a combined 50 points per game. Mason is especially rolling scoring 20 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Technically this is a netural site game being played at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. The reality is that it's almost a home game for Kansas being just 35 miles east of Lawrence, home of the Jayhawks. Kansas is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 neutral site games, too, while Purdue is 2-5 ATS the past seven times.
03-22-17	Bucks v. Kings +5	Top	116-98	Loss	-105	8 h 21 m	Show
This is a dangerous spot for the Bucks. They pulled off a road upset of Portland last night. This marks the end of their six-game, 10-day road trip. They are playing without rest with home games against Atlanta on Friday and long-time rival Chicag on Sunday looming. Milwaukee is playing well. But the Bucks aren't nearly mature enough to cover a margin like this if they don't produce at least a high "B" game. Milwaukee is 2-8 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. Sacramento has been idle the past two days. The Kings have been tough at home recently beating the Magic and taking the Wizards and Jazz to overtime during three of their last four home contests. The Wizards and Jazz are both superior to the Bucks.
03-21-17	Georgia Tech v. Ole Miss -5	Top	74-66	Loss	-110	20 h 34 m	Show
Georgia Tech isn't the same team on the road. The Yellow Jackets are 2-10 away from home. Yes, that's right. Georgia Tech has exactly two road victories. Mississippi has covered six of its last seven home games. The Rebels have had to play their first two NIT games on the road. They are coming off an 85-80 victory against heavyweight Syracuse, while Georgia Tech has had the benefit of playing its first two NIT games at home beating disjointed Indiana - which just fired its coach - and lightly regarded Belmont. It's not just having home-court. That's accounted for in the line. I like the way Mississippi is peaking. The Rebels ended the regular season defeating South Carolina, which has reached the Sweet 16. They followed that with a victory against Missouri in the SEC Tournament, a one-point loss to Arkansas and then road wins against Monmouth and Syracuse in the NIT. The Rebels are getting outstanding guard play from Terence Davis and Deandre Burnett. The two combined for 49 points against Syracuse, including hitting 11 3-pointers in burning the Orange's fabled zone defense. This doesn't bode well for Georgia Tech, which relies on defense to win. Davis has been hot for a while averaging 18.3 points during his last 11 games. Ole Miss also has Sebastian Saiz. He led the SEC in rebounding, ranking fifth in the nation. He's shot only 34 percent from the floor, though, during his past four games. He's better than a 46 percent shooter on the season. So he's due to play better giving the Rebels an inside-outside game.
03-18-17	Rockets -2.5 v. Nuggets	Top	109-105	Win	100	11 h 38 m	Show
Denver doesn't have the defense to slow down the Rockets. Houston beat Denver, 128-110, the past time it played at Pepsi Center this past December. I see the Rockets coming out strong again after a poor effort last night in a 128-112 road loss to the Pelicans. Houston is 16-5 ATS following a loss, 21-10 ATS versus foes with a losing record and 5-1 ATS in its last six road games. The Rockets are playing short-handed minus two injured players - Danilo Gallinari, their second-best player, and key reserve Wilson Chandler.
03-18-17	Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5	Top	73-79	Loss	-112	28 h 46 m	Show
Northwestern was lucky to escape Vanderbilt in its first round NCAA Tournament game Thursday. The Wildcats are NCAA Tourney novices. This also is their fifth game in 10 days.They are not good enough, nor ready to step up to face an opponent this good. Gonzaga could be the best team in the country and are far more tournament tested. I find this spread short as I see the Bulldogs burying Northwestern. While Northwestern is on Cloud Nine after getting past the Commodores, Gonzaga is in a kill-mood. The Bulldogs defeated South Dakota State by 20 points in their opening Big Dance game nearly covering a 23-point spread despite a flat performance. Bulldogs coach Mark Few was not happy with his team shooting less than 40 percent from the floor, missing 10 of 18 fgree throws and committing more turnovers than assists. Look for guard Nigel Williams-Goss and the rest of the Bulldogs to play far better. Gonzaga is superior to Wisconsin and the Badgers waxed the Wildcats, 76-48, last Saturday in the Big 10 Conference Tournament. Gonzaga is 20-5-1 ATS versus above .500 opponents.
03-17-17	UC-Davis +24 v. Kansas	Top	62-100	Loss	-110	11 h 36 m	Show
UC Davis is a team I've followed being on the West Coast and familar with the Big West Conference. The Aggies are better than perceived. They have athleticism, can play defense - holding their last four foes to less than 40 percent shooting - and have balanced scoring. The Aggies also won't be nearly as rusty as Kansas having defeated North Carolina Central this past Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament play-in game. The Aggies are excited to play in the NCAA Tournament, a first for them. A full effort from them should be forthcoming. Kansas has a different goal and that's to win not just this game but the entire tournament, a feat the Jayhawks are capable of achieving. So Kansas doesn't have the need to go all out every minute of this game with its starters. The Jayhawks also must deal with a rust factor. This is just their second game in 13 days. Kansas last played nine days ago and wasn't sharp losing to TCU in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Kansas is a mighty power, but it hasn't defeated an opponent by more than 19 points in its last 22 games. The Jayhawks are 0-5 the past five times laying 13 or more points, which coincides with their not being a strong favorite going 5-12-1 ATS the past 18 times as chalk. Bottom line is the Jayhawks haven't proven worthy of being good in the role of favorite and have no incentive to cover this big of a margin here.
03-16-17	Weber State v. CS-Fullerton +1	Top	80-76	Loss	-110	20 h 10 m	Show
Falling short in the Big Sky championship this past Saturday was a big deal for Weber State. That 93-89 overtime loss stung the Wildcats especially the seniors. Weber State had captured the Big Sky tournament two of the previous three seasons earning the right to play in the NCAA Tournament each time. Now the Wildcats have a short turnaround to travel and play Cal State Fullerton in a first round Collegeinsider.com Tournament game. It's a huge letdown for the Wildcats. I don't see the motivation here. Not so with Fullerton. The Titans finished third in the Big West and reached the semifinals of the conference tournament where they lost to eventual champion UC Davis, a team that just upset North Carolina Central on Wednesday in the NCAA Tournament. Fullerton finished strong winning eight of its last 10 regular season games. The Titans were the hottest team in the league down the stretch. They are excited about hosting this matchup. The Titans have an excellent player in Tre Coggins and are 12-3 at home. The Titans are athletic and play strong defense. Weber State has failed to cover in seven of its last eight road games. This is what Weber State coach Randy Rahe said about the Titans, "... We've got a challenge. We're going to have to play really well to be competitive with them."
03-14-17	CS Bakersfield +10.5 v. California	Top	73-66	Win	100	17 h 29 m	Show
Losses in six of their last nine games cost California an NCAA Tournament bid. The Bears' consolation prize is the NIT and hosting Cal Bakersfield in this first round game just two days after getting the highly disappointing news they won't be in the Big Dance. Do you think the Bears are excited to play in this game? I sure don't. This is what Cal coach Cuonzo Martin was quoted as saying: "(The players) were very disappointed and that's the challenge now: to get guys' energy levels up to play a game Tuesday night. They're very disappointed, but it goes with the territory." Cal has plenty of distractions, too. There are coaching rumors surrounding Martin. Senior Jabari Bird, Cal's leading scorer, is questionable due to a concussion. Sophomore forward Ivan Rabb, the team's No. 2 scorer, is considering entering the NBA draft. Bakersfield is a worthy enough opponent to spring a straight-up upset. The Roadrunners won the Western Athletic Conference regular-season title. They lost in the conference tournament title game to New Mexico State the day after winning a four-overtime semifinal game. The Roadrunners are the type of hard-nosed defensive team that can be most effective against a down-in-the-dumps opponent. They allowed just 63 points per game on 37.3 field goal shooting. Bakersfield is tournament tested, too. The Roadrunners made the NCAA Tournament last season throwing a scare into Final Four participant Oklahoma trailing by just five points with around four minutes left during their opening round game. The Roadrunners have covered seven of the last eight times in an underdog role and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road contests. These two teams last met on Dec. 28, 2014. That was Martin's first year at Berkeley. Bakersfield won, 55-52. The Roadrunners certainly are capable of repeating that feat especially considering the circumstances. Tuesday Free Play Georgia Tech plus 3 hosting Indiana (NIT) Back in November, Indiana was thought of as a possible Final Four contender after pulling off upsets of Kansas and North Carolina while Georgia Tech was considered a lower-rung ACC team. Rewind four months later to now. Georgia Tech has far exceeded expectations nearly making the NCAA Tournament. Indiana still has Final Four hopes - but for the NIT not NCAA. Of course that's disappointing for the Hoosiers. And it's likely they don't take this first-round NIT game as serious as Georgia Tech. Indiana declined to host this game even though it had the opportunity being the higher seed. The company line for turning down playing this matchup at home was renovations to Assembly Hall. The real reason, though, could be apathy and lack of good crowd support with the students off for spring break. The Hoosiers couldn't overcome injuries down the stretch. They lost six of their last eight regular-season games and were eliminated by Wisconsin in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. So not only is Indiana in bad form, but I can't see the Hoosiers caring much about this game. Another distraction are rumors coach Tom Crean is going to leave Indiana possibly for Missouri. Georgia Tech will be motivated. Yellow Jackets' first-year head coach, Josh Pastner, believes it's a tremendous opportunity not only to play in the postseason, but to defeat a name school with a great basketball tradition. It's a home game for the Yellow Jackets and it's going to be on national television. Pastner is so psyched for this game he's offered to pay for the tickets of any student wanting to attend. As added motivation, the Yellow Jackets want to win so they could meet in-state rival Georgia in the second round if the Bulldogs should beat Belmont on Wednesday as expected. Georgia Tech may have played its most embarrassing home game of the season when it lost to Georgia, 60-43, on Dec. 20. The Yellow Jackets want revenge. The motivation angle works for the Yellow Jackets here, but are they actually good enough to beat Indiana? I certainly believe so with the key being they are playing at McCamish Pavilion. Georgia Tech went 14-4 there against Division I opponents posting home victories against Notre Dame, North Carolina, Florida State and Syracuse. Georgia Tech achieved its success with the nation's seventh most-efficient defense. The Yellow Jackets ranked 15th in defensive field goal percentage. They are led by 6-foot-10 junior center Ben Lammers, the ACC Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 14.3 points, 9.3 rebounds and 3.3 blocks per game. Indiana is far more offensively inclined. The Hoosiers need to shoot well to win. They had problems with Wisconsin, the last strong defensive club they faced scoring just 60 points against the Badgers. Keep in mind, too, this was very much a down year in the Big Ten. The Yellow Jackets have been underrated all season. They've covered 12 of their last 16 games. They are a worthy underdog here.
03-12-17	Rhode Island v. VCU	Top	70-63	Win	100	5 h 1 m	Show
I'm going to roll with Rhode Island, which is playing its best basketball. The Rams are peaking winning their last seven games. Included among these victories is a 69-59 home victory against VCU that was achieved five games ago on Feb. 25. The Rams prevailed by double-digits in that win as 3 1/2-point favorites despite making just 35 percent of their shots from the floor. Rhode Island needs this victory to gain an automatic seed into the NCAA Tournament. A loss here to VCU could keep Rhode Island from making the tournament. VCU had to go overtime to beat Richmond in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament Saturday. That was the later game, too. Rhode Island had a much easier time waltzing past Davidson by 24 points in the earlier Saturday semifinal game. I like that Rhode Island is hitting its ceiling, has less of a fatigue factor than VCU and is deep in the backcourt.
03-11-17	New Mexico State -2.5 v. CS Bakersfield	Top	70-60	Win	100	12 h 20 m	Show
This is the big rivalry matchup in the Western Athletic Conference. New Mexico State is playing at a high level winning its last four games all by 14 points or more. The Aggies have 27 wins, tying for the most victories in school history. The Aggies have revenge for a buzzer-beater loss to Cal State Bakersfield in the WAC Tournament Finals last season. The Aggies had won the previous four conference tournaments before that defeat. Only one New Mexico State player logged more than 33 minutes in the Aggies' 78-60 waltz over Missouri-Kansas City in Friday night's semifinal in Las Vegas. Bakersfield had it far, far rougher in the other semifinal game Friday night. The Roadrunners nipped Utah Valley, 81-80, in four overtimes! Jaylin Airington, the Roadrunners' leading scorer, played 49 minutes. Dedrick Basile, the team's third-leading scorer, was on the court for 53 minutes. Utah Valley was 6-8 in conference and only seeded fourth because Grand Canyon was ineligible for the postseason. The Aggies play an up-tempo style. The timing couldn't be worse for Bakersfield. I believe the Aggies are the superior team and now they have a huge situational element in their favor.
03-10-17	TCU v. Iowa State -4	Top	63-84	Win	100	9 h 11 m	Show
Tremendous job by TCU in stunning top-seeded Kansas, 85-82, yesterday in the Big 12 Conference Tournament. Unfortunately for the Horned Frogs they have no time to celebrate such a heady accomplishment. Iowa State is by far the superior team and catches TCU in a big letdown spot. The Horned Frogs had never defeated a top-three overall ranked team in 17 previous tries. They had entered the Big 12 tournament riding a seven-game losing streak. TCU was 2-10 the past 12 times versus .500 foes before upsetting the Jayhawks. Now the Horned Frogs' season has been made. The Cyclones are 7-1 in their last eight games, including rolling past TCU, 84-71, at home on Feb. 18. Iowa State has that needed excellent senior point guard in Monte Morris, who is playing with a chip on his shoulder after not being named a finalist for the Bob Cousy Award for nation's top point guard.
03-09-17	Clippers v. Grizzlies -3	Top	114-98	Loss	-105	13 h 56 m	Show
Neither team is playing well, but this game is far more crucial for the Grizzlies and they catch the Clippers carrying a heavy fatigue rating. This marks the Clippers' fifth game in seven days and second in two night. The Clippers have failed to cover five of the last six times when playing without rest. The Grizzlies are two game behind the Clippers for the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference. Memphis is off an embarrassing 122-109 home loss on Monday to the Nets, the worst team in the NBA. Memphis has had two full days to live with that loss. So the Grizzlies should be rested, well-prepared and fired-up. Mike Conley has outperformed Chris Paul recently averaging 29 points during his last five games. The Clippers were outrebounded by 14 boards and outscored by 22 points in the paint by the Timberwolves in a 107-91 road loss last night. That's an ominous sign for the Clippers taking on the physical Grizzlies, who rank fourth defensively and ninth in rebounding margin. The Clippers are 19th in rebounding margin and 13th defensively by comparison.
03-09-17	CS-Northridge v. CS-Fullerton -2	Top	68-81	Win	100	10 h 10 m	Show
These teams have gone in different directions leading up to the conference tournament. Cal State-Fullerton is 8-2 in its last 10 Big West games, covering six of their last seven. Cal State-Northridge has dropped six of its last seven. The Matadors' losses have coincided with losing big man Rakim Lubin to a torn Achilles on Feb. 4. He was the team's second-leading rebounder. The Titans have a size advantage and a very good senior guard in Tre Coggins. Fullerton also holds a talent edge, which was proven when the teams met this past Saturday at Northridge. The Titans beat the Matadors, 86-78. Northridge is 3-13 ATS following a loss.
03-08-17	UNLV v. San Diego State -9	Top	52-62	Win	100	17 h 45 m	Show
I can't see UNLV staying within double-digits of San Diego State in this first round Mountain West Conference Tournament game. The matchup is at Thomas & Mack Center, home of UNLV. But that won't matter. The Rebels lost their fan support weeks ago on their way to losing 12 of their last 15 games. The Rebels are poorly coached, don't play smart and aren't physically tough. Those are all fatal weaknesses going against San Diego State. The Aztecs are well-coached, rank 16th defensively in the country and have reached the tournament finals seven of the past eight years. UNLV is likely to be missing forward Tyrell Green, who is doubtful due to a knee injury. He didn't practice on Tuesday. Green is UNLV's second-leading scorer and No. 3 on the team in rebounding. The Rebels' frontcourt is even more vulnerable to the Aztecs without Green. San Diego State has defeated UNLV 10 consecutive times, including winning both games this season by 13 points each. UNLV is 2-8 ATS the past 10 times when taking between seven and 12 1/2 points.
03-06-17	BYU v. St. Mary's -6.5	Top	50-81	Win	100	18 h 25 m	Show
BYU's lack of depth and inexperience should prove fatal against Saint Mary's especially in such a short turnaround. The Cougars just defeated Loyola Marymount, 89-81, in the quarterfinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Saturday. Saint Mary's has shot better than 50 percent during 18 of its 30 games. The Gaels beat the Cougars, 81-68, at home and 70-57 at Provo this season. Both of those games were convincing double-digit wins for the Gaels, who led the Cougars by 25 points in the latter matchup played on Feb. 18. Saint Mary's has been golden in this spread range covering seven of the last eight times when favored between seven and 12 1/2-points.
03-05-17	Canucks v. Ducks -1.5	Top	2-1	Loss	-100	10 h 4 m	Show
This has blowout written all over it so I'm laying 1 1/2 goals on the puck line. Vancouver played its guts out in hanging on to a 4-3 road victory against the Kings last night. The Canucks were outshot, 44-21, and outplayed but survived in large part because of outstanding goaltending by Ryan Miller. The Canucks are not in shape for this quick turnaround. They are playing without rest and for the third time in four days. Miller will be exhausted if he has to play again today. If he doesn't than mediocre backup Jacob Markstrom would be in net. Vancouver has lost the past five times following a victory. Even with the win against the Kings, the Canucks are just 9-20-1-2 on the road. Long-term, Vancouver is 20-45 away. Anaheim is 20-7-2-1 at home with wins in four of its last five home contests. The Ducks got the rust off from their bye week beating the Maple Leafs, 5-2, at home this past Friday. The Ducks can't afford to take Vancouver lightly as their next five games are against the Predators, Blackhawks on the road, Blues on the road, Capitals and Blues again.
03-03-17	Wisc-Milwaukee v. Detroit -1.5	Top	85-60	Loss	-110	11 h 13 m	Show
UW-Milwaukee coach LaVall Jordan knew he was going to have it rough in his first season as head coach of the Panthers. He was hired under difficult circumstances and the Panthers had a dreadful season going 8-23 while finishing last in the Horizon League at 4-14. But now can the Panthers turn things around in the conference tournament opening today against Detroit Mercy? No. The Panthers are a dead team losers of nine in a row. They just hosted Detroit Mercy two games ago on Feb. 24 losing 81-74. The Titans aren't exactly as a powerhouse, but they clearly are better than UWM. So I'm surprised at this low of a spread especially with the game being playing at Joe Louis Arena in Detroit. The Titans finished two games better than the Panthers in conference and have the two best players on the court in Corey Allen and Jaleel Hogan.
03-02-17	Hornets -3 v. Suns	Top	103-120	Loss	-110	16 h 46 m	Show
Charlotte made the playoffs last season and can't afford to lose to the Suns in its bid to make the postseason again this season. Right now they're 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot in the East. Yes, the Hornets appear down from a year ago. But they've been involved in some games with deceiving scores, have underrated Cody Zeller back in the lineup now and the Suns are the second-worst team in the NBA behind only the Nets. Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum are Charlotte's best players. But Zeller's return makes a difference because he provides defense at center. Charlotte is 23-17 when Zeller has played. He returned to the lineup in the Hornets' last game, a 109-104 win against the Lakers on Tuesday. Charlotte is 3-17 when Zeller hasn't played. Big man Frank Kaminsky also has been playing well for Charlotte averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds in his last 10 games. The Hornets were five-point road favorites against the Lakers. This line is shorter and the Suns have a better record than the Lakers. Phoenix has made no secret that it is playing for the future giving minutes to youngsters such as Alan Williams, Tyler Ulis and Derrick Jones Jr. at the expense of veterans Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight. The Suns last played at home on Feb. 15. So their focus and concentration may not be all there especially with so many inexperienced players in the rotation now. The Suns rank 29th in defense. They've allowed triple digits in 22 of their last 23 games. Charlotte ranks 10th defensively yielding an average of eight fewer points per game than Phoenix.
02-28-17	Fresno State +5 v. Boise State	Top	74-67	Win	100	8 h 19 m	Show
Fresno State came on strong at the end of last season and the Bulldogs are doing it again this season winning and covering their last three games. The Bulldogs have been tremendous in an underdog role covering 11 of the last 14 times. By contrast, Boise State has failed to cover in its last six games and also is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games. The line is inflated a bit because it is Senior Night in Boise, but the Broncos don't have any difference makers who are seniors.
02-26-17	Georgia Tech +12 v. Notre Dame	Top	60-64	Win	100	18 h 60 m	Show
Before diving into a breakdown of this matchup and why Georgia Tech getting this many points is the right side, let's examine the history. Georgia Tech and Notre Dame have met seven times since the Irish joined the Atlantic Coast Conference. The games have been decided by 4.1 points. The Yellow Jackets have covered seven of the last eight times versus Notre Dame, including winning the first meeting this season, 62-60, as 6 1/2-point home 'dogs on Jan. 28. Now, nearly, a month later that spread is almost double as the Irish host the Yellow Jackets. I say the line is much too high. Notre Dame has gotten back on track winning four in a row. The Irish win with offense averaging 84.3 points during their victory streak. However, the Irish haven't played in more than a week last in action on Feb. 18. That's too long to go without playing this late in the season. A certain freshness would be welcomed for tired teams down the stretch, but eight days between games means there's a good chance of rust, which would especially hurt an offensive-minded squad such as the Irish. There's a certain zig-zag this late in college basketball for NCAA Tournament bubble teams such as Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are bidding to make the Big Dance for the first time since 2010. Their chances suffered a big blow when they lost at home to North Carolina State, 71-69, this past Tuesday. Josh Okogie had another big game with 25 points, but the Yellow Jackets hurt themselves by blowing 12 layups and going 13-for-22 (59.1 percent) from the foul line. That tough defeat means the Yellow Jackets must - at the very least - win two of their final three games to have a shot at getting an NCAA berth. Those games are against the 21st-ranked Irish, hosting Pittsburgh on Tuesday and then playing at Syracuse. Georgia Tech has had four full days to brew about that missed opportunity against NC State. So look for the Yellow Jackets to throw their best punch at the Irish. They certainly are capable of beating good teams having defeated North Carolina, Florida State, VCU and Notre Dame. The Yellow Jackets are well-coached, have shown fight and their starting lineup has talent especially Okogie, who has scored in double figures in 14 of his 15 conference games. Lack of depth is a problem, which could crop up against Pittsburgh on Tuesday in the short turnaround. Syracuse will be looking for revenge when the Orange play Georgia Tech at home. So this is a game the Yellow Jackets really need. Georgia Tech has covered nine of its last 12 ACC games and is 8-2 ATS the past 10 times versus above .500 opponents. Notre Dame only has beaten one team by more than 12 points since Christmas.
02-25-17	Hawks -2.5 v. Magic	Top	86-105	Loss	-110	15 h 28 m	Show
Both Atlanta and Orlando opened post All-Star break with losses. The difference is the Hawks are far superior to Orlando and have their key cog back in the lineup. The Hawks were blasted by the Heat, 108-90, at home Friday night. The Heat were red-hot hitting 17 of 37 3-pointers while Atlanta made just 38 percent of its shots from the field. The Hawks were minus their floor general, point guard Dennis Schroder. Schroder, who is averaging 17.5 points and 6.3 assists, will play today. He was suspended just for the Magic game for failing to report back to the team on time after the All-Star break. The Magic played on Thursday losing at home to the Trail Blazers, 112-103. The Magic are 5-18 in their last 23 games, a demoralized bottom-feeder playing out the string while missing the playoffs for the fifth straight season. Orlando is 1-6 SU and ATS in its last seven home games. Long-term, the Magic are 6-19-1 ATS during their past 26 home contests. The Hawks helped themselves at break picking up Ersan Ilyasova, a heady veteran who can rebound and hit 3-pointers. The Hawks are 12-3 ATS when playing without rest. They should play much better today with Schroder back and with a chip on his shoulder and Ilyasova having played 16 minutes in his Hawks debut last night. The Magic have gotten even worse since All-Star break after trading Serge Ibaka. The Magic have had trouble containing former teammate Dwight Howard, who is shooting 76 percent against Orlando this season. The Hawks have beaten the Magic in their last two meetings winning by an average of 23 points.
02-25-17	Seton Hall -6.5 v. DePaul	Top	82-79	Loss	-110	7 h 45 m	Show
Seton Hall doesn't want to hurt its chances of making the NCAA Tournament by losing this game. The Pirates have won four of their last six games to get into Big Dance conversation. They destroyed the Blue Demons by 31 points when they played last month easily covering as 14-point favorites. DePaul is fat and happy after ending its 10-game losing streak in style with a 67-65 road win against Georgetown. The Blue Demons were 13 1/2-point 'dogs. DePaul is 3-12-1 ATS following a victory. I don't see DePaul pulling a second straight upset. The Blue Demons have lost their last three home games losing by 13 to Villanova, by 35 to Creighton and by 13 to Marquette. The Blue Demons have matchup issues against Seton Hall's big three of Angel Delgado, Khadeen Carrington and Desi Rodriguez. All three players have scored 1,000 points this season. In the RIP rankings, Seton Hall ranked 48th as of Thursday with DePaul at 224. In the Pomeroy ratings, the Pirates were at 57 with DePaul at 183.
02-24-17	Nets v. Nuggets -10	Top	109-129	Win	100	15 h 57 m	Show
This handicap works both ways. The Nets are the worst team in the NBA losers of 25 of their last 26, including their last 14. The Nuggets would be in the playoffs if the postseason began now. But Denver is in a precarious spot with the Kings, Trail Blazers and Pelicans all close behind. Denver suffered an embarrassing 116-100 road loss to the Kings last night. But playing last night is a huge plus for the Nuggets because they got their post All-Star break rust off. Three of their key players also returned to the lineup - Danilo Gallinari (groin), Kenneth Faried (ankle) and Wilson Chandler (illness) - after being out. Gallinari and Chandler played decently. The Nets now are the ones that are going to be rusty. A horrendous road team anyways with a 2-23 away mark, the Nets got even worse during All-Star break trading away their second-leading scorer, Bojan Bogdanovic in order to play for the future. The youthful, immature and sure-to-be rusty Nets could have trouble focusing after being idle since Feb. 15. The Nuggets, on the other hand, have revenge motivation for a five-point road loss to the Nets. The Nuggets have a good coach, Michael Malone. He'll be stressing that the Nuggets can't afford to lose this home game to such a bad team. So Denver's urgency should be extremely high. Certainly the Nuggets have the firepower to blow out the Nets ranking fourth in scoring at 110.5 points a game. Brooklyn has the worst defense in the NBA surrendering 114.2 points per game. Denver has covered in eight of its last 10 home games. The Nuggets also are 6-1 ATS the past seven times after losing by more than 10 points.
02-22-17	St. Louis +22 v. VCU	Top	50-64	Win	100	18 h 32 m	Show
VCU is in a huge look ahead spot as its next two games are against the other top two teams in the Atlantic 10 - Rhode Island and Dayton. The Rams matchup versus Dayton likely will decide the Atlantic 10 title. I can easily envision a letdown spot for VCU with the Rams taking their foot off the pedal. VCU is 6-15-1 ATS versus foes with a winning percentage below .400. The key is can the Billikens hang in? I believe they can. Saint Louis is an above average defensive team. The Billikens should play with a full amount of intensity after a bad loss to Fordham in their last game this past Saturday. Travis Ford has done a nice job coaching Saints Louis and he called out his players for lack of effort and passion following that loss to Fordham. Up until their last two games, Saint Louis had been on a nice point spread run. The Billikens are still 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games. They are 7-1 ATS following a loss and a tough team to cover a large margin against because of their slow pace.
02-21-17	NC State v. Georgia Tech -3	Top	71-69	Loss	-105	7 h 29 m	Show
I'm going to ride the Yellow Jackets here. They haven't lost a home game since Jan. 7 and that was versus Louisville. Among their home wins have been conference victories against Syracuse, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida State and Notre Dame. They have covered nine of their last 11. The teams met in mid-January and Georgia Tech won by 10 on the road. North Carolina State has dropped and failed to cover seven in a row. Mark Gottfried is a lame duck coach having already been fired. The Wolfpack fell behind Notre Dame by 23 points before losing by nine at home in their last game after getting the news about Gottfried. The Wolfpack lost to the Irish despite shooting 51.7 percent from the floor. Georgia Tech has the 16th best defensive field goal percentage in the country. Now the Wolfpack go on the road. They have lost their last three away games by a combined 79 points!
02-20-17	Texas +16 v. West Virginia	Top	62-77	Win	100	13 h 24 m	Show
Texas is 0-12 on the road and at neutral sites this season. But we're not talking about a crazy money line play here. The Longhorns just need to stay fairly close, something they mostly do having not lost by more than 15 points during their past 23 games. Some of the Longhorns' road problems can be attributed to starting four underclassmen. But these young players - Jarrett Allen, Andrew Jones and Kerwin Roach to name three - are talented. Allen is a 6-foot-11 freshman who could get taken in the NBA lottery. While the Longhorns don't win on the road, they do cover spreads. Texas is 11-5 ATS the past 16 times as a road underdog. The Longhorns have lost by 10 or less points away from home against Oklahoma (by four), versus Georgia (by two), against Kansas (by two), versus Baylor (by 10), against Iowa State (by nine) and against Kansas State (by three). West Virginia just nipped Texas, 74-72, when the teams met for the first time this season on Jan. 14. The Longhorns have had tremendous point spread success versus West Virginia covering eight of the last nine times.
02-15-17	76ers +10.5 v. Celtics	Top	108-116	Win	100	12 h 44 m	Show
Twice these teams have met this season and the Celtics have won by one and four points, respectively. The 76ers have won three in a row. They've covered 19 of their last 26. They are deserving of more respect than this especially considering the situation. The Celtics haven't played at home in 10 days. They just returned from a four-game road trip going 3-1 burying Dallas, 111-98, on Monday night. Boston plays again tomorrow night at Chicago while this is the 76ers' final game going into the All-Star break. So a full effort should be forthcoming from the 76ers while the Celtics, distracted by finally coming back home, may have to hold something back for the Bulls. Boston has been favored by eight or more points eight times this season. Not once have they covered a spread in that role. The Celtics have also failed to cover during their last four home games and are 2-5 ATS following a victory. The 76ers aren't likely to have Joel Embiid, their best player. But Dario Saric and Nerlens Noel have stepped up recently. Saric is averaging 20.8 points and 6.5 rebounds during his last four games. Philadelphia is 8-5 ATS during the last 13 games Embiid has missed.
02-14-17	Dayton v. St. Louis +14	Top	85-63	Loss	-110	16 h 12 m	Show
OK, let's get this out of the way right away. Dayton has the best defense in the Atlantic 10. Kyle Davis is an outstanding player leading the conference both in field goal percentage and 3-point percentage. The Flyers are an impressive team going 46-12 in their last 58 league games, but I don't see them covering this big of a road number against the improved Billikens. Saint Louis has covered the past six times it has been a 'dog. The team has covered nine of its last 10. The Billikens draw the fourth-highest crowd support in the league. They've won their last four home games and own upset home victories against Duquesne, Massachusetts and George Mason since Jan. 25. Saint Louis nearly defeated Dayton at home last season leading by nine with seven minutes left before falling in overtime. The Billikens were worse last season yet almost beat Dayton losing by three as 13-point 'dogs. The Billikens are improved both defensively and offensively topping 75 points in three of their last four games. The spot is excellent, too, for Saint Louis. The Billikens have their confidence up and catch Dayton off a huge underdog road victory against Rhode Island.
02-13-17	Pistons v. Bucks -3	Top	89-102	Win	100	9 h 49 m	Show
OK, the shock of losing Jabari Parker for the season due to a torn ACL has worn off for Milwaukee. This will be the Bucks' third game without their second-best player. Kris Middleton is back now and the Bucks need to have this game trailing the Pistons by two game for the final playoff spot in the East. The buy sign finally is on Milwaukee after the Bucks pasted the Pacers, 116-100, at Indiana this past Saturday. That was a huge confidence and morale boost for the Bucks. The Pacers are one of the better home teams in the league. This also is Middleton's third game back since returning from a torn hamstring that had kept him out the entire season so he should be less rusty. The Pistons just upset the Raptors, 102-101, on Sunday coming from 16 points down in the fourth quarter to pull it off. It's going to be hard for Detroit to retain that intensity for a second consecutive game and fourth game in six days. The Pistons are 3-7 when playing without rest and 5-12 ATS during their past 17 games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Bucks have done well versus Detroit covering nine of the last 12 meetings, including going 4-1 ATS in Milwaukee. Monday Free Play Magic Plus the Points at Heat I'm going to test a handicapping theory. It's the play-against the hot team that just had their long winning streak snapped. In this case it's fade the Miami Heat. The Heat appeared to have their lottery reservations well in order when they lost 30 of their first 41 games. But a funny thing happened on the way to crying about the glory days of LeBron James, Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh. The Heat got hot proving you should never count out the underrated coaching of Erik Spoelstra. Miami rattled off an NBA-high 13-game win streak, longest in league history for a sub-.500 team. The historic streak ended this past Saturday when the 76ers took advantage of a flat Miami road performance to beat the Heat, 117-109. Miami committed 20 turnovers and had just 15 assists in the loss. Now the Heat return to South Florida perhaps missing Dion Waiters for a fourth straight game due to a ankle injury. The team's third-leading scorer is questionable. So there very well could be a lingering deflation for the Heat. Waiters would be missed because he's the only other respectable scoring threat besides Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside. The catch in going against the Heat in this spot is backing the Magic, losers of 12 of their last 15. This is a sure-fire lottery team, devoid of hope dragging into All-Star break with shot morale and daily trade rumors suggesting a thorough housecleaning. Frank Vogel hasn't fixed Orlando's defense, which ranks 20th and 24th in defensive field goal percentage. The Magic just surrendered 112 points in a 32-point road loss to the Mavericks this past Saturday. Dallas happens to be the lowest-scoring team in the NBA averaging 98.2 points. Miami is averaging 112.3 points in its last eight games. That would rank third in the NBA if compounded during the entire season. The Heat still have averaged 107.6 points during their last three games minus Waiters. At least the Magic should be highly motivated, right? They off an embarrassing loss in which their effort was questioned and now play their in-state rival. The Magic have the big men with Serge Ibaka and Nikola Vucevic to keep Whiteside from going crazy. The Magic also are 11-6 ATS when catching seven or more points. So let's give the theory a test.
02-13-17	Baylor -2.5 v. Texas Tech	Top	78-84	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
If it weren't for beating last place Oklahoma, Texas Tech would be 0-6 in its last six Big 12 Conference games. The Red Raiders did get up in a big way to play Kansas at home this past Saturday losing 80-79 at the wire. I don't see the Red Raiders being able to come back that strong just two days later against sixth-ranked Baylor. The Bears are a school-best 22-3 through 25 games and have one of the top players in the nation, Johnathan Motley. In short turnarounds such as this for both teams, talent usually trumps. Baylor has been a huge money-maker on the road, too, gong 15-5-1 ATS in its last 21 away contests. The Bears are 4-2 in conference road games with the losses coming to Kansas and West Virginia, the two teams along with themselves that are vying for the Big 12 title. It's tough to beat Texas Tech in Lubbock, but the Red Raiders are not in the class of Kansas and West Virginia.
02-12-17	Nevada +4 v. San Diego State	Top	56-70	Loss	-110	10 h 44 m	Show
These teams met early last month in Reno and Nevada won, 72-69, as two-point favorites. A key to the Wolf Pack's victory was outrebounding the Aztecs by 12 boards. Nevada is the better rebounding team, leads the Mountain West in 3-point defense and outscores San Diego State by an average of 10 points a game. The Wolf Pack have the matchup edges, motivation and history to beat the Aztecs straight-up again. San Diego State still plays outstanding defense. However, the Aztecs have lost some of their home mystique with losses to New Mexico and Colorado State since the calendar turned 2017. The Aztecs are a bad rebounding team - ranking last in the Mountain West in defensive rebounding - and have trouble scoring ranking last in the conference in scoring and free throws attempted per game. The Aztecs rely on defense and 3-point shooting. They rank 284th, though, in 3-point accuracy and Nevada has a strong perimeter defense. The Wolf Pack are in a dogfight with Boise State and Colorado State to win the Mountain West. The big question is can the Wolf Pack win on the road? They had a bad loss to Utah State, falling 74-57 on Feb. 1, in their last road game. Prior to that game, however, the Wolf Pack posted three consecutive road victories defeating New Mexico, Wyoming and Boise State. The wins against Wyoming and Boise State were in blowout fashion. My feeling is Nevada learned from that road loss to Utah State and should produce a high level game here. Nevada has been a huge money-maker in this spread range covering 13 of the last 16 times when getting up to 6 1/2 points. The Wolf Pack also is 18-6-2 ATS the last 26 times facing an above .500 foes.
02-11-17	North Texas v. Florida International -4.5	Top	71-90	Win	100	12 h 40 m	Show
This is a stop-the-pain home game for Florida International, losers of four in a row. The timing is ripe for the Golden Panthers to do just that. Florida International catches North Texas fat and happy after the Mean Green posted a 70-64 road upset win against Florida Atlantic this past Thursday. That victory halted an 11-game losing streak for the Mean Green. North Texas, though, is horrible on the road going 5-16-1 ATS during its last 22 away contests and has failed to cover the past five times following a rare victory. North Texas isn't used to winning, far less so on the road. The Golden Panthers won't lack for motivation. They can just remember last year's game when they blew a 12-point lead with around six minutes left in a 77-75 road loss to the Mean Green during their previous meeting. Stephen Nover Saturday Free Pick Northern Illinois plus 4 1/2 at Western Michigan The combination of getting the better team with the superior defense and a bunch of points puts me on Northern Illinois. Northern Illinois is four games above .500 while Western Michigan is 8-15. According to the latest Ken Pomeroy's ratings, Northern Illinois ranks 194th, while Western Michigan is 205th. The Huskies have the 70th stingiest defense in the country giving up 68.2 points per game. That number actually comes down to 65.6 when they are on the road. By contrast, Western Michigan allows 78.6 points a game. The Broncos are off a 72-55 win against Miami of Ohio in their last game this past Tuesday. They have failed to cover 15 of the past 21 times following a victory. Northern Illinois is 6-1-1 ATS the past eight times playing Western Michigan. The Huskies have covered three of their past four road games, all as either an underdog or pick.
02-09-17	Celtics +1.5 v. Blazers	Top	120-111	Win	100	15 h 1 m	Show
Every NBA team is going to encounter a flat spot during the course of such a long season. It happened to the Celtics last night. They lost to the Kings, 108-92, despite Sacramento not having suspended DeMarcus Cousins. The Celtics committed 18 turnovers, shot 39.7 percent from the floor and only had four fast-break points. Prior to that game, though, Boston had won seven straight games. The Celtics had reached triple-digits in 25 consecutive games. I see Boston bouncing back strong in this matchup. Fatigue shouldn't factor since Boston last played on Sunday before losing to the Kings. The Celtics also have won five consecutive times when playing without rest, covering four of the five. The Celtics should be use to West Coast time now. If they need extra motivation, the Celtics can point to Jan. 21. The Trail Blazers defeated the Celtics, 127-123 in overtime, on that date in Boston despite finishing their own four-game, six-day road trip back then. The Trail Blazers are off a last-second one-point road victory against the Mavericks two days ago. That was a costly victory for Portland as it lost swingman and key reserve Evan Turner to a broken hand. The Trail Blazers don't have a strong bench, nor good big men to take advantage of Boston's rebounding weakness. Portland is 7-18-1 ATS following a victory. The Celtics have covered 70 percent of their last 18 road contests.
02-08-17	Wizards v. Nets +10	Top	114-110	Win	100	10 h 47 m	Show
Granted Brooklyn is terrible losers of 21 of its last 22 games. But this is a rich spot for the Nets and they're collecting a boatload of points. Brooklyn has covered four of the last five times when getting nine or more points. The Nets usually can be counted on to provide a good effort. They rank 16th in scoring, play hard and are a better free throw shooting team than Washington. They have ample motivation opening a four-game homestand looking to halt a 10-game losing streak. The Nets also have double-revenge incentive for two December losses. They were blown out at Verizon Center, but only lost 118-113 at home to the Wizards. Washington could have trouble getting up for this game. The Wizards' energy may be at low ebb, too, coming off a 140-135 home overtime loss to the Cavaliers this past Monday night. That was the Wizards' biggest game of the season and ended their seven-game win streak. I still question the Wizards' maturity level especially after Bradley Beal started dancing in overtime with the Wizards leading Cleveland by two points. Washington is 0-4 ATS the past four times playing a foe with a losing home record. The Wizards are back home Friday to host the Pacers. It's going to be difficult for the Wizards to care much about this game. The Nets lost 111-107 to the Hornets in Charlotte last night. Only one Nets player logged more than 29 minutes, though.
02-07-17	Iowa State v. Texas +3.5	Top	65-67	Win	100	19 h 29 m	Show
I'm playing the letdown card strong fading Iowa State off its monster double-digit upset road overtime win against second-ranked Kansas this past Saturday. The Cyclones pulled the upset by coming from 15 points down in ending the Jayhawks' 51-game home win streak while likely securing their place in the Big Dance with that victory. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS following a spread cover and has failed to cover in seven of its last eight games in Austin. Texas has the talent to beat Iowa State. The youthful Longhorns have begun to play better going 2-2 following five straight losses. Freshman big man Jarrett Allen has come on to average 16 points and 10.5 rebounds during his last 10 games. The Longhorns are tough at home - owning Big 12 victories against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech not to mention losing by only two to then ninth-ranked West Virginia - and have also covered seven of the last eight times as underdogs. Texas has also covered 71 percent of its last 24 Big 12 games.
02-06-17	Spurs -2.5 v. Grizzlies	Top	74-89	Loss	-110	25 h 20 m	Show
San Antonio has defeated Memphis nine straight times, covering seven of the nine. I expect the Spurs to continue their dominance again in this matchup. The Spurs have won 20 of their 25 road games. This is the opener of an eight-game road swing for them. The Spurs have won nine of their last 11 and rank with the Warriors and Cavaliers as one of the three best teams in the NBA. San Antonio gives up fewer points per game than the Grizzlies and outscores them by seven points a game. Memphis ranks last in shooting percentage, while San Antonio is second in shooting percentage and has the best 3-point shooting percentage in the NBA. Memphis is playing at home for the first time after going 4-2 in its six-game road trip that ended with a 107-99 victory against the Timberwolves Saturday night. The first game back from being gone so long is not a plus for the home Grizzlies, who could be a bit fat and happy after rallying from 19 points down to defeat Minnesota. The Grizzlies have failed to cover five of the last seven times following a victory. They also are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when taking on an above .500 opponent. Monday Free Play Cavaliers at Wizards Under 220 Not only is this the Wizards' most important game of the season, but it's their biggest home game in years. Packed crowd. Nationally televised. Amped up 100 percent to play the defending world champion Cavaliers. Yes, I could envision the Wizards being tight under the pressure and spotlight. Things they're not normally accustomed to. But I'm not going to fade the Wizards at home where they have won 17 in a row. Instead I'm going under the total. Sure there's star power in this matchup headed by LeBron James and John Wall, having his finest season. That's why the total is high. Lost among the glitter, though, is the solid defense both Cleveland and Washington have been playing. The Wizards have held their last five opponents to an average of 96 points. The Cavaliers have permitted an average of 99 points in their past four games. The teams met back in Washington on Nov. 11 in their lone matchup this season. The Cavaliers won, 105-94, for a total of 199 points. Kyrie Irving led the Cavaliers with 29 points. Irving is questionable having missed the Cavaliers' previous game because of a sore quad.
02-04-17	UC-Irvine -3 v. Long Beach State	Top	63-72	Loss	-110	16 h 17 m	Show
Cal Irvine is the superior team and is in stop-the-pain mode after losing two in a row. The Anteaters had won eight in a row before their losing streak. Long Beach State is 4-4 in the Big West Conference, two games behind Cal Irvine and UC Davis for the lead. But the 49ers are overmatched here. They are 7-15 ATS, including 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They also are 1-7 ATS the past eight times when going against an above .500 foe.
02-02-17	Warriors -8 v. Clippers	Top	133-120	Win	100	14 h 14 m	Show
The Clippers got their mojo back by rolling past the Suns on Wednesday night. But the absence of Chris Paul will really be felt in this matchup. The Clippers don't have enough firepower to keep within single digits of the Warriors. Certainly the Warriors aren't going to bury LA by 46 points like they did on Saturday, but they still are vastly superior especially when playing well. And the Warriors are playing well winning 15 of their last 17 games with 10 of their last 11 victories coming by double-digits. Stephen Curry is on fire scoring 82 points in his last two games on 29 of 43 shooting from the floor and 20 of 30 from 3-point range. The Warriors have beaten the Clippers eight consecutive times. They will get their share of crowd support, too, in LA.
02-02-17	Santa Clara -5 v. Portland	Top	60-45	Win	100	16 h 17 m	Show
Santa Clara is a full tier behind Gonzaga and St. Mary's in the West Coast Conference hierarchy. But the Broncos are far better than Portland. That was proven in the first meeting between the teams, which Santa Clara won, 70-42, on Jan. 5. Portland was in free fall dropping four in a row - and that was before their leading scorer and star guard, Alec Wintering, was lost for the season with a torn ACL. That happened less than two weeks ago and the Pilots haven't recovered losing by 16 points to San Diego at home this past Saturday. Portland lost its previous game to Pepperdine, 78-60, as a five-point road 'dog. Wintering was averaging 19.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. Without Wintering, the Pilots aren't just one of the worst teams in the WCC but in the entire country losers of eight in a row.
02-01-17	Clippers -3.5 v. Suns	Top	124-114	Win	100	16 h 49 m	Show
The last time the Clippers took the court was this past Saturday. They were pounded and embarrassed by the Warriors on the road on national television losing, 144-98. That was easily the Clippers' worst loss of the season. Now, after three full days to think about that humiliation, the Clippers finally are back in action playing the Suns in Phoenix. LA hosts the Warriors on Thursday and then takes off on a five-game road trip starting with Boston and Toronto. So there is no way the Clippers can look past the lowly Suns. Minus Chris Paul, the Clippers are far from an elite team. But the prideful Clippers have Blake Griffin back, a star center in DeAndre Jordan and excellent backcourt depth. That's enough to cover this spread range against the Suns, who have dropped four in a row allowing an average of 119.3 points during their losing streak. Griffin is getting the rust off scoring 20 points in 23 minutes against the Warriors in his second game back from missing 18 games with a knee injury. Jordan leads the league in field goal percentage, is No. 2 in rebounding and ninth in blocks. Austin Rivers is having his best season joining J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford to give the Clippers a respectable backcourt even without Paul. The Clippers certainly don't want to enter their Thursday rematch against the Warriors coming off a loss to the Suns, a team they are 2-0 against this season with the average victory margin being 14.5 points. The Suns rank second-to-last in defense and usually are at their worst against Western Conference foes going 6-16-1 ATS in their last 23 games against them. Wednesday Free Pick Nets plus 2 1/2 hosting Knicks When you're the Brooklyn Nets, the goals are modest. Beating their cross-town rival and much more glamorous opponent, the Knicks, is a big deal for the Nets. The timing is ripe for Brooklyn to do just that. Surprised by how short this line is? Shouldn't be. New York averages 106.1 points per game. Brooklyn averages 105.8 points and is the superior free throw shooting team. The Nets play hard, get good ball movement and often are unselfish. They just don't play any defense. So the major part of this handicap is a fade on the fading Knicks. New York is at low ebb being a season-worst eight games under .500. The Knicks have key injuries - Derrick Rose is out with an ankle injury and Kristaps Porzingis is questionable after missing last night's loss to the Wizards due to a stomach virus - are racked with internal strife, including distracting daily Carmelo Anthony trade rumors that the New York tabloids play up big and the team carries a major fatigue rating. It's no wonder the Knicks went 5-12 in January. This marks the Knicks' third game in four days. They lost to Atlanta in four overtimes on Sunday and fell to Washington, 117-101, Tuesday night. The Nets are going to bring energy to this game. The Knicks need to dig deep to find any energy and necessary motivation to match Brooklyn's. The Nets' roster is unimposing. But the Knicks' roster is mediocre at best not good enough to beat any opponent without playing at least above average. Injuries have robbed Rose of his one-time stardom, but the Knicks' starting backcourt without Rose is Brandon Jennings and Courtney Lee. Jennings has played 90:55 minutes the past three days, while Lee has logged 79:36 during this short time frame. They are going to have problems keeping up with the run-and-gun Nets guards. The Knicks have lost 10 of 11 times when playing without rest going 4-7 ATS. They also have failed to cover the last six times when going against a foe with a below .400 winning percentage. This has been a home series, too, with the host covering the past six times.
01-31-17	Dayton -10.5 v. Fordham	Top	75-66	Loss	-110	16 h 58 m	Show
Dayton is vastly better than Fordham and should have plenty of motivation following a 73-69 road loss to VCU in its last game this past Friday. That loss snapped a three-game Dayton win streak. The Flyers have held nine of their last 10 opponents to 67 points or fewer. Fordham averages just 64.7 points in Atlantic 10 play. Fordham has a day less rest having lost 84-66 at home to Davidson this past Saturday. The Rams rank 217th in Ken Pomeroy's rankings, while Dayton rates 36th. The Flyers have covered the past six times versus Fordham, including winning 64-50 during the lone meeting last season. Fordham is 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games, failing to cover in four of its past five home contests.
01-30-17	Western Carolina v. Mercer -13	Top	47-62	Win	100	12 h 0 m	Show
The teams just met on Jan. 21 at Western Carolina and Mercer won, 70-50. Mercer accomplished the 20-point road victory despite making 11 of 19 free throws compared to the Catamounts sinking 16 of 21 free throws. The timing is right for Mercer to bury Western Carolina again. Mercer is playing well covering seven of its last eight games. Western Carolina is off a surprising 68-62 home win against Wofford this past Saturday. The Catamounts were 9 1/2-point underdogs. They have not won or covered two consecutive games all season. Western Carolina also has failed to cover in eight of its last 10 road contests.
01-29-17	Virginia v. Villanova -5	Top	59-61	Loss	-110	7 h 58 m	Show
Look for Villanova to come back strong at home. The defending national champion Wildcats have had four full days to stew about blowing a 17-point lead in a road loss to Marquette this past Tuesday. From that loss, the Wildcats should stress more defensive consistency and a better mix on offense. Virginia is great again defensively leading the nation in fewest points per game. But the Cavaliers lack Villanova's scoring and shoot far worse from the free throw line. Villanova ranks third in the country in free throw percentage at 79 percent. Playing at home, I would take Villanova's offense over Virginia's defense especially coming off a surprising loss. Villanova's prideful seniors - Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Darryl Reynolds - have never lost consecutive games. The Wildcats usually respond well to a defeat covering eight of the last nine times in those instances.
01-27-17	Bucks v. Raptors -4	Top	86-102	Win	100	9 h 42 m	Show
First off, I like the Raptors even though their leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan, is going to miss a third straight game. The Raptors play better defense without him.The Raptors have hung tough without their star losing 108-106 to the Spurs and 101-99 on the road to the Grizzlies. However, the Raptors are saddled in a season-high five-game losing streak. This is a stop-the-pain game for them being at home against the Bucks, who are sub .500 team and have lost six of their last seven games. The Bucks have given up an average of 112 points in their last seven games. Only three teams score more points per game than Toronto. Milwaukee has failed to cover 11 of the past 15 times when going against an opponent with a winning home record. The Bucks are 0-2 this season, too, versus Toronto losing by six at home and by 22 at Toronto.
01-26-17	Pacers v. Wolves -3	Top	109-103	Loss	-107	11 h 23 m	Show
The Timberwolves are playing their best ball going 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Tom Thibodeau has improved Minnesota's defense and Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins are legitimate stars. The Pacers have been horrid on the road covering only 27 percent of their away games. This is the Pacers' seventh different venue in a row. Indiana may be short-handed in the backcourt, too, with Monta Ellis and Rodney Stuckey each questionable with injuries.
01-25-17	UCLA -5.5 v. USC	Top	76-84	Loss	-105	16 h 37 m	Show
UCLA has the talent to blow out just about any team, including USC. The Bruins certainly have the motivation coming off an 11-point loss to Arizona and having triple revenge against the Trojans from last season. The Bruins should redeem themselves after surrendering 96 points to the Wildcats and having their defense called soft. USC is off an 82-79 win versus Arizona State. It has been eight games since the Trojans last won two in a row. They are 0-8 ATS following a victory and 1-7 ATS in their past eight home contests.
01-25-17	Kings v. Cavs -11	Top	116-112	Loss	-110	26 h 39 m	Show
I see this as a total kill spot for Cleveland. The Cavaliers just lost as 9 1/2-point road favorite to New Orleans, 124-122, on Monday despite the Pelicans not having Anthony Davis. Following that loss, LeBron James ripped the team saying in part, " ... It's not about how many minutes I'm playing right now, or being fresh down the stretch. We've got to be good right now and we're not winning." I have to believe the Cavaliers are going to be super fired-up for this matchup. They are far superior to the lottery-bound, chemistry-challenged Kings. So besides a huge talent edge and homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers are going to be highly motivated. They should have their full focus, too, not playing again until Friday when they host the lowly Nets. Cleveland is 19-4 at home and has a winning ATS mark at Quicken Loans Arena. The Cavaliers catch the Kings playing their fourth road game in six days. Sacramento is a bit fat and happy, too, having just upset the Pistons, 109-104, on Monday. Sacramento is 2-8 in its last 10 games with its two victories during this span coming versus the Pistons. The Kings are 0-4 ATS following a win and 4-9 ATS following a spread cover. They have lost and failed to cover during their last four games against the Cavaliers.
01-24-17	Clippers -3 v. 76ers	Top	110-121	Loss	-102	11 h 16 m	Show
I can't see the 76ers beating the Clippers without Joel Embiid, who is out with knee soreness. The 76ers had won eight of nine, but lost to the Hawks on Saturday, 110-93, when Embiid was out. Philadelphia isn't nearly as good without Embiid, the likely rookie of the year award winner. Philadelphia is 2-7 SU, 3-6 ATS when Embiid has sat out this season. The Clippers are learning to live without Chris Paul. They upset the Hawks in Atlanta last night, 115-105, and don't want to give that great victory away with a loss to the lowly 76ers, a team they have beaten the past nine times by a victory margin of 21.9 points. The Clippers should give a full effort since they don't play against until Saturday when they play at the Warriors. The Clippers should get an added boost as Blake Griffin is expected to play after missing the last 18 games with a knee injury.
01-23-17	Kings v. Pistons -5	Top	109-104	Loss	-105	8 h 56 m	Show
The Pistons have won their last six home games and have short revenge having lost to the Kings at Sacramento, 100-94, less than two weeks ago. Detroit is playing well and should have its full focus not playing against until Saturday. The Kings are playing in their third road game in four days. They are down their second-best player, Rudy Gay. Despite beating the Pistons in the first matchup, the Kings are just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games versus Detroit.
01-22-17	Steelers v. Patriots -5.5	Top	17-36	Win	100	139 h 1 m	Show
As Antonio Brown's Facebook Live feed showed the Steelers have a certain punk element to them. Punk teams don't beat the Patriots in Foxboro. Few teams beat New England at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are 33-4 at Gillette Stadium the last four years for a winning percentage of 89 percent. They are 26-9-2 ATS during this span covering 74 percent. The Patriots have also covered 14 of their last 17 overall games. On paper this may look like an even matchup thus getting more than a field goal with the underdog Steelers would seem attractive. In my view, that's the wrong side. My analysis of the numbers, players and situation make the Patriots the right side laying less than a touchdown. Let's start with the coaching. Bill Belichick versus Mike Tomlin is a mismatch. Belichick has an added edge, too, in defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. Now let's look at the defenses. Both were fortunate to go against weak offenses and quarterbacks down the stretch. Pittsburgh has faced the Chiefs, Dolphins, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Bills and Giants during its last seven games. None of those teams even has an above average quarterback. New England also played a number of weak quarterbacks during its last eight games. But the Patriots allowed an NFL-low 15.6 points a game. That's impressive no matter who the opposition is. Only one of the Patriots' last eight foes put up more than 17 points against them. New England's defense is peaking surrendering just 36 points during the last four games, an average of nine points a game. Now the Patriots draw their toughest offensive opponent - on paper. Ben Roethlisberger is far less effective on the road. His history bears that out, including this season where his home numbers were 20 touchdown passes with five interceptions compared to nine touchdown throws with nine interceptions away from Heinz Field. He has been intercepted nine times in his last six games. I rank Antonio Brown with Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. as one of the three best wide receivers in football. However, Brown's fate is tied to Roethlisberger. A bad performance from Roethlisberger likely results in a bad game for Brown. And I like Roethlisberger far less on the road than I do at home especially against a disciplined, intelligent defense that New England presents. The Patriots defeated the Steelers, 27-16, at Pittsburgh in Week 7. The Steelers didn't have Roethlisberger so the result is skewed. The Patriots did keep Le'Veon Bell under control holding him to 81 yards rushing on 21 carries, a 3.8 average. Bell, like Brown, is a top-three player at his position. But Bell's running style is unique in that he has enormous patience waiting for holes to open rather than immediately darting. The Patriots' defense is well-suited to stop Bell's style because it's read-and-react that relies on well-coached design and gap protection rather than all-out aggressiveness and blitzing. I much prefer having Tom Brady at Foxboro than Roethlisberger. Not only is Brady the better clutch quarterback, but he's coming off another monster season finishing with the second-highest passer rating next Matt Ryan and throwing 28 touchdown passes to only two interceptions in 12 games. By not playing the first month of the season, Brady actually has a little less wear and tear on him. New England's inside/outside combination of LeGarrette Blount and Dion Lewis can be just as effective as Bell. Blount rushed for 1,161 yards and led the NFL in rushing touchdowns with 18. He bashed the Steelers for 127 yards on the ground and two touchdowns in the Week 7 victory. Lewis is a triple threat who is dangerous as a runner, receiver and kick returner. New England has won the past 15 times Lewis has been in the lineup. The Patriots don't have a receiver nearly as talented as Brown, but they do have receiving depth both at the flanks and out of the backfield with Lewis and James White. Julian Edelman is one of the best slot receivers and Michael Floyd has provided another veteran dimension. The scary thing about the playoffs is a lackluster performance can get you eliminated. The Patriots were flat last week against the Texans having been idle the week before. Yet the Patriots still not only won, but covered a 16-point spread against a defense better than Pittsburgh's. I don't see New England having a second straight mediocre performance. I'd say the chances are much greater the Patriots bring their "A" game. The situation favors the Patriots. New England got to play on Saturday. The Steelers were forced to play a tough, physical game on Sunday night thus losing an important day of rest so crucial this late in the season. Pittsburgh has covered only one of its last six road playoff games. The Steelers are 3-9 against the Patriots during the Brady Era, including 0-2 in the playoffs. The Patriots have never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium with Brady going 4-0.
01-21-17	UC-Irvine -4 v. CS-Northridge	Top	105-73	Win	100	19 h 18 m	Show
Cal Irvine easily is the best team in the Big West Conference right now. Now while this proclamation may bring yawns with a who cares attitude, the conference is on the betting board and this matchup provides excellent line value. I like the Anteaters to win by double-digits here. They are 6-0 ATS the past six times in a spread range of laying up to 6 1/2 points. Northridge is four games under .500 on the season. The Matadors are 6-9 ATS on the season, 2-6 ATS when playing at home. They just lost by three at Hawaii on Wednesday. So this is a short turnaround coming back from the islands. The Matadors have failed to cover the past nine times following a loss. Irvine, by contrast, buried Hawaii by 28 points two weeks ago. Hawaii has stepped up its game since then and Irvine did play that game at home, but a 28-point win compared to a three-point loss still is a monster contrast. Note, too, the Anteaters also are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing a foe that has a below .400 winning percentage. The Anteaters have a well-balanced team. They've won seven in a row, unbeaten in league play. They are playing their best ball. The same certainly can't be said for Northridge.
01-20-17	Warriors -4.5 v. Rockets	Top	125-108	Win	100	21 h 39 m	Show
You must have a great offense and outstanding 3-point defense to beat the Rockets. The Warriors have both of that leading the NBA in scoring and 3-point defense. They also have the superior roster. Add this up plus throw in a revenge factor and a Rockets fatigue factor and the Warriors should cover this mid-sized spread. Houston is playing for the third time in four days. The Rockets may be without third-leading scorer Ryan Anderson. The power forward has missed the past two games due to illness. The Rockets edged Golden State, 132-127, in overtime last month in the team's first meeting. But if the Warriors are on their "A" game no team can beat them. Golden State has won nine of its last 10. In their last two games, the Warriors defeated the Cavaliers by 35 points and Thunder by 21 points forcing 10 turnovers from Russell Westbrook. The Thunder could make just 8 of 28 shots from 3-point range, an ominous sign for the Rockets, who heavily rely on shooting 3-pointers and playing up-tempo. Up next for the Warriors are games against lottery teams the Magic and Heat. So the Warriors' full focus should be on display.
01-18-17	Pacers v. Kings	Top	106-100	Loss	-110	23 h 38 m	Show
Optimism is fading for the Kings as they've endured a 1-5 homestand in their new state-of-the-art arena. This is the last game of the Kings' extended homestand before they embark on an eight-game road swing. So this matchup is absolutely crucial for the Kings. Indiana is 6-1 in its last seven games. But the Pacers also have failed to cover 13 of their 18 road contests this season and their recent success isn't as impressive as it looks on closer inspection. Let's first start with the Kings. In four of their last five games, they've played the Clippers, Warriors, Cavaliers and Thunder. They played those teams tough, but lost. Their lone home win during their past five games came against the Pistons. The Pacers are far closer to the Pistons than they are to the other teams the Kings lost to. None of the six teams the Pacers beat during their 6-1 streak holds a winning record. The Pacers played five of their past seven games at home. But Indiana is one of those teams with a huge home/road split - 16-5 SU home, 5-14 SU road. The Pacers' lone loss during this span came in London against Denver by 28 points. It occurred six days ago. That's significant. Having made numerous overseas trips I know it often takes more than a week to get your legs and internal clock working properly. Now the Pacers are playing at their fourth straight different venue and third different time zone traveling to the West Coast. Don't read much into Indiana's last game, a 98-95 home win against New Orleans on Monday. The Pelicans lost Anthony Davis to a hip injury during the middle of the third quarter. Still, the Pelicans could have won if they didn't miss nine of their last 10 shots. It's another red flag for the Pacers that their bench was outscored 51-19 by the Pelicans. Indiana got lucky missing Davis for 1 1/2 quarters. If Davis isn't the best big man in basketball than DeMarcus Cousins is. Rudy Gay is back healthy, too, for the Kings. Sacramento has had the Pacers' number lately, too, winning the past four meetings and covering five of the last six in the series.
01-17-17	San Diego State -5 v. UNLV	Top	64-51	Win	100	8 h 41 m	Show
San Diego State is healthy and too strong defensively for a down UNLV team. The Aztecs beat the Rebels by 15 at UNLV last season and then clobbered the Rebels, 92-56, in their final meeting. The Rebels could manage to average only 54 points versus the Aztecs last year and are worse this season. The Rebels are shooting only 36 percent from the field in their last five games. By contrast, opponents are hitting 48 percent of their field goals during this span. San Diego State has a front court edge with big man Malik Pope. Put it all together and this is a cheap price to lay with a much superior foe.
01-15-17	Steelers +1.5 v. Chiefs	Top	18-16	Win	100	162 h 36 m	Show
I believe the Chiefs are bogus and will get exposed here. Kansas City was outgained by 396 yards on the season. The Chiefs' home field advantage is a mystique, too. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games at Arrowhead Stadium. The Steelers aren't going to be bothered by cold weather either. The Steelers have a huge edge at the skill positions with Ben Roethlisberger, LeVeon Bell and Antonio Brown, who might be the best wide receiver in football. Bell is a top-three runner, maybe the best cold weather back, too. Roethlisberger is among the top seven quarterbacks. Their counterparts can't compare. Alex Smith is a bottom-10 quarterback, who represents no downfield threat. Spencer Ware is a mediocre back who has sore ribs and the Chiefs have no above average wide receivers. If West can't play, the Chiefs are in real trouble because that would mean third-stringer Charcandrick West is in line for heavy duty with Jamaal Charles on IR. But it's not just the Steelers having vastly superior skill position players. Pittsburgh also has the advantage in winning both lines of scrimmage. The Chiefs rank 24th defensively in yards allowed. They are minus their top linebacker, Derrick Johnson. They also could be without their best pass rusher, Justin Houston, and safety Eric Berry. Houston still is having problems with his surgically-repaired knee and Berry is slowed by an ankle injury. The Steelers defense has improved as it has gotten healthy. Since Week 11, the Steelers have led the league in sacks and takeaways. The Chiefs have averaged only 3.3 yards rushing per carry during the last 11 weeks. That would rank them 31st if computed during the entire season. Kansas City has parlayed excellent special teams and an NFL-best 33 takeaways into a 12-4 record. Talent-wise, though, the Chiefs are not a 12-win team. Tyreek Hill can make some big plays, but Kansas City lacks an explosive offense. Their defense is bend-but-don't-break and has injuries. It's not a given the Chiefs win the turnover battle. Pittsburgh is the hotter team, winners of eight in a row. The Steelers destroyed the Chiefs, 43-14, when they met Oct. 2 in Pittsburgh. Roethlisberger lit up the Chiefs going 22 of 27 for 300 yards and five touchdowns. Roethlisberger proved he can pick apart Kansas City's secondary and Bell can have success running against the Chiefs' 26th-ranked run defense. It's another plus for the Steelers if they get tight end Ladarius Green back for this game.
01-14-17	Texans +16 v. Patriots	Top	16-34	Loss	-100	23 h 40 m	Show
Simply put this is too many points for the Patriots to lay against a Texans defense that gave up the fewest yards per game in the NFL and has held their last seven foes to 18.1 points per game. Tom Brady remains an upper elite quarterback. But he doesn't have his most potent weapon, injured Rob Gronkowski, and is facing the No. 2 ranked pass defense. The Texans posted their 18.1 average during the home stretch facing upper tier quarterbacks Philip Rivers, Aaron Rodgers on the road and Andrew Luck on the road. Jadeveon Clowney finally lived up to his vast potential helped make up for the loss J.J. Watt. He provides a strong pass rush along with Whitney Mercilus. The Texans have a number of former Patriots players and coaches, including still effective nose guard Vince Wilfork and coach Bill O'Brien. The Patriots enter the playoffs on a seven-game win streak. The only playoff team, though, they played during this span was the Dolphins. It's not exactly sharpening your skills beating the 49ers, Jets twice and, Rams during the last seven weeks of the regular season. In terms of facing offensive production, the Patriots were ranked last by Football Outsiders. The Patriots have built their fancy defensive numbers based in large part by playing the easiest schedule of offensive opponents. So this is taking more than two touchdowns with a clear superior defense, a spread range that rarely happens in that instance. It's fair to point out that Houston is another weak offense that New England draws. True. The Patriots blanked the Texans, 27-0, in early September at home with a third-string rookie quarterback. Some of that fell on O'Brien, who coached a horrendous game playing not to lose rather than to win. O'Brien is smart enough to have learned from his mistake. The Texans picked up some needed confidence in Brock Osweiler during their 27-14 playoff victory against Oakland last week. Osweiler has proven serviceable the past couple of games since regaining his starting job. He has the best wide receiver on the field in DeAndre Hopkins and an above runner in Lamar Miller. So the Texans have weapons. Bill Belichick's goal isn't to punish his former assistant O'Brien by running up a score. He just wants to get his Patriots quickly out of this game with a victory. Belichick isn't interested in style points. Only twice in their last 11 playoff games, have the Patriots won by more than two touchdowns.
01-13-17	Hornets -5.5 v. 76ers	Top	93-102	Loss	-105	10 h 49 m	Show
It's weird to write this, but the 76ers are actually in a letdown spot after coming from 17 points down to nip the Knicks at the buzzer during their last game two days ago. That was Philly's 11th win of the season passing their victory total of a year ago. It also was the 76ers' second consecutive victory. They haven't won three games in a row all season. The Hornets are in stop-the-pain mode after three losses in a row with the last two occurring on the road against the Spurs and Rockets. Charlotte hasn't been in action since Tuesday. Maybe Nicolas Batum returns after missing the last two games with a knee injury. That would be a bonus, but I like the Hornets even if Batum doesn't play. This is a rare game when the 76ers' opponent is taking them fully serious and considering this an important game. That's the case with Charlotte. The Hornets are middle-of-the-road both offensively and defensively. They are well coached and are leading the NBA in forcing turnovers for a fourth straight season. They are two levels higher than the 76ers and won't lack motivation here.
01-12-17	UC-Irvine -6 v. UC-Santa Barbara	Top	66-62	Loss	-105	22 h 23 m	Show
Cal Davis and UC Irvine are the two best teams in the Big West Conference. Santa Barbara is tied for the worst record in the league at 2-11. The Gauchos lost 73-47 to Cal Davis in their last game. Now they draw Irvine. I'm not looking for a 26-point Anteater victory, but I do think they will win easily by double-digits. Cal Irvine is playing well riding a four-game win streak. The Anteaters rank 22nd in defensive field goal percentage. Santa Barbara is a very poor shooting team, which extends to free throws. The Anteaters' are 65-3 when holding opponents to 60 points or less, including 7-1 this season. Irvine holds major edges here in defense, rebounding and bench strength. Santa Barbara has failed to cover in nine of its last 10 games. Irvine is 17-5 ATS versus sub .500 opponents and 9-2 ATS as a road favorite. Some of this can be explained by their strong bench, which has outscored opponent's reserves by 12 points a game. That margin increases to nearly 15 a game when you factor just the last nine games. The Anteaters beat the Gauchos, 61-52, at Santa Barbara last January, but lost the rematch at home last Jan. 30. So the Anteaters should be focused.
01-08-17	Dolphins v. Steelers -9.5	Top	12-30	Win	100	145 h 31 m	Show
Steelers minus 10 hosting Dolphins It would be nice to get some line value, but that's not realistic in the NFL especially in the playoffs. Anyways, I don't see how the Dolphins can beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh in January. I trust the Steelers enough to win by double-digits. The Dolphins have many negatives. The Steelers have many positives. Miami's negatives: Traveling into cold weather. A career backup quarterback in Matt Moore. Even if Ryan Tannehill somehow gets clearance, his mobility will be restricted and he'll be rusty. The Dolphins are 10-6, but minus 17 in scoring differential. The Dolphins were blown out by the Patriots and Ravens. They gave up a staggering 589 yards to the Bills. They barely were able to squeak past one-win Cleveland and two-win San Francisco in home games. The Dolphins are without two of their best players, center Mike Pouncey and safety Rashad Jones. They also have other injuries at linebackers and cornerback. Playoff inexperience. The Dolphins last made the postseason in 2008. They last won a playoff game in 2000. Pittsburgh's positives: The Steelers are home, their superstars are rested and the team is peaking on a seven-game winning streak. Ben Roethlisberger plays far better at home. Pittsburgh is 16-4 with Roethlisberger under center the last three years at Heinz Field. Roethlisberger's touchdown-to-interception ratio at home this season is 19-to-5. Le'Veon Bell is one of the three-best running backs in the NFL. He should be in line for a huge game against the Dolphins, who rank 30th in run defense and are down several linebackers. The Dolphins also don't have a cornerback who can come close to matching up against Antonio Brown. The only home games Pittsburgh has lost this season were to the Patriots without Roethlisberger and to the Cowboys. The Dolphins are far, far below their teams.
01-06-17	76ers +11.5 v. Celtics	Top	106-110	Win	100	8 h 2 m	Show
The Celtics escaped with just a one-point win when these teams last met. The 76ers didn't have Joel Embiid in that game either. The Celtics have been nothing special at home going 9-6 SU and 6-9 against the spread. It's a plus if Embiid plays here, but I like the 76ers even without him. Philly has covered five of its last seven road games. The Celtics are 4-9 ATS the past 13 times playing a foe with a winning percentage below .400. Boston hosts New Orleans on Saturday so the backdoor could be open for the 76ers if the game should get out of hand, which I doubt happens. The 76ers actually have a winning spread and are playing well with two straight victories. Only twice in their last 14 games have the 76ers lost by more than 11 points.
01-05-17	Suns v. Mavs -6	Top	102-95	Loss	-104	10 h 12 m	Show
Prideful, veteran and now healthy at last, Dallas is coming on. Dallas is 9-11 in its last 20 games after opening 2-13. Dallas rolled past the Lakers and Wizards and lost by singe-digits to the Warriors in their last three games. The Suns are 4-16 on the road playing for the third in four days, while this is just the Mavericks' second game in six days. The Mavericks swept the Suns last season winning by an average of 13 points. This is an opponent they have the confidence and veteran savvy to handle - and cover a mid-size margin.
01-03-17	Grizzlies -3 v. Lakers	Top	102-116	Loss	-110	12 h 32 m	Show
The Grizzlies are coming off their best December ever while the Lakers are 2-15 in their last 17 games. Marc Gasol may not play because of a sore ankle, but Mike Conley is back in the lineup. The well coached Grizzlies have beaten the Lakers 10 of the last 11 times. Memphis plays at the Clippers on Wednesday and at the Warriors on Friday so it can't afford to take a loss here. Memphis also has covered in 11 of its last 13 Western Conference games. The Grizzlies rank No. 2 defensively. They give up 13 fewer points per game than the Lakers.
01-01-17	Packers -3 v. Lions	Top	31-24	Win	100	107 h 57 m	Show
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Packers are peaking while the Lions are sinking. Green Bay is riding a five-game winning streak and has the confidence of already beating Detroit this season and of having made the playoffs the past seven seasons. Detroit has lost two in a row and has a history of choking. Jordy Nelson has regained his pre-knee surgery star status and it's sparked the Packers offense. Aaron Rodgers still is in his prime, has found a reliable ground option in Ty Montgomery and has the best pass-protecting offensive line in football. The Lions were torched this past Monday by the Cowboys giving up 42 points. Detroit has just 14 takeaways and 25 sacks on the season. Their secondary is beat-up likely to be without their top cornerback, Darius Slay, and nickel back. They are extremely weak at three of the defensive backfield spots. Slay is dealing with a hamstring injury, one of the worst injuries a cornerback can have. He'll be a liability if he plays because he's not close to 100 percent. The Packers are going to get their share of points here. The key question is can the Lions keep up with their mediocre offense. Detroit lacks Green Bay's offensive personnel. Detroit's offensive line is merely average and its running backs are below par. The Lions have no star wide receivers. Matthew Stafford has made the Lions offense go as he's proven he's an above average quarterback and not just an inconsistent gunslinger who sometimes flashes. However, Stafford has been playing the last couple of weeks with a dislocation and torn ligaments in the middle fingers of his passing hand. This has forced him to play with a glove on his passing hand and he hasn't been effective because of it throwing more wobbly passes rather than tight spirals. In the last two games, Stafford's completion percentage has been 61.5 percent and 56.5 percent when on the season his percentage is 65.5. Stafford needs to have a high completion percentage because the Lions offense has been geared on short passes ever since the middle of last season when they made a change in offensive coordinators going to Jim Bob Cooter.
01-01-17	Raiders +2.5 v. Broncos	Top	6-24	Loss	-110	139 h 26 m	Show
The line has been over adjusted due to Derek Carr's injury. The Raiders are the superior team and have great incentive to win the division. The Broncos are out of playoff contention, quite a letdown for the defending Super Bowl champions. Carr was having an MVP season. Matt McGloin is a wild card. However, the Raiders still have an above average offensive line, good running backs and one of the better wide receiving tandems in Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. The Broncos can't generate any offense. Their running attack is feeble and now it appears they will be starting Paxton Lynch, which kills their passing game. I would take McGloin -sight unseen - above the inexperienced Lynch. The Raiders are plus 18 in turnover ratio. The Raiders outrushed the Broncos, 218-33, in winning the first meeting, 30-20, in Week 9. Denver's ground game is just as bad. Denver's defense still is very good, but has lost its dominance. The Raiders have proven themselves as road warriors going 8-1-1 ATS in their past 10 away games. They have a good spread history at Denver, too, going 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight visits.
01-01-17	Seahawks -9.5 v. 49ers	Top	25-23	Loss	-105	138 h 4 m	Show
Decimated San Francisco has lost 18 players for the season, including Carlos Hyde. Colin Kaepernick is going to have problems trying to figure out Seattle's defense, which does a great job of containing dual-threat quarterbacks, and doesn't have any reliable weapons anymore with Hyde getting hurt last week. The 49ers have covered just three of their last 14 games. Their defense is worn down from multiple injuries and being on the field way too much. A healthy Russell Wilson can take advantage. Seattle has a mediocre offensive line, but the 49ers are one defense they can control. The Seahawks will be fired up, too, after suffering an embarrassing defeat at home to the Cardinals. Pete Carroll certainly doesn't want to enter the playoffs off two straight poor performances and with playoff positioning still at stake. The 49ers pulled out their second win of the season this past Saturday against the Rams. They're totally outmatched here.
12-31-16	Grizzlies +1.5 v. Kings	Top	112-98	Win	100	7 h 34 m	Show
There are plenty of reasons why I like the Grizzlies to beat the Kings starting with that they are the much superior defensive team. Memphis ranks No. 1 in giving up the fewest points per 100 possessions and is No. 2 in fewest road points allowed per game and defensive field goal percentage. The Grizzlies open a four-game West Coast trip here with a lot of confidence and intensity. They lost 96-92 to the Kings at home on Dec. 16. The loss was especially tough because the Kings are coached by former Grizzlies coach Dave Joerger. I like Joerger. But I also like David Fizdale, who is doing a tremendous job coaching the Grizzlies this season. Memphis just rolled past Oklahoma City, 114-80, at home on Thursday. That was a season-low in points for the Thunder. Russell Westbrook couldn't do anything against a Grizzlies defense keying on him. Westbrook had zero assists and six turnovers. The Grizzlies won that game by 34 points despite not having Mike Conley. It's a bonus if Conley plays here, but I'm fine with Memphis if he doesn't. Marc Gasol is going to play. Gasol could be the Comeback Player of the Year. The Grizzlies are 8-3 when Gasol plays and Conley doesn't. Sacramento is heavily reliant on its superstar, DeMarcus Cousins. Stop Cousins and you stop the Kings because they don't have enough good pieces especially with Rudy Gay bothered by a hip injury that has kept him out of seven of the last eight games. Portland just rolled the Kings, 102-89, at home this past Wednesday. The Trail Blazers heavily focused on Cousins, holding him to 8 of 19 shooting from the floor. The rest of the Kings couldn't pick up the slack. When you have to rely on Garrett Temple and Matt Barnes for heavy scoring you're in trouble. That's the scenario I envision in this game especially given then Memphis is a far better defensive team than Portland. The Grizzlies have covered 10 of their last 12 Western Conference games and are 4-1 ATS during their last five visits to Sacramento.
12-31-16	Kentucky v. Georgia Tech -3	Top	18-33	Win	100	88 h 10 m	Show
Bowl pedigree can't be underestimated. Georgia Tech and its veteran coach, Paul Johnson, know all about bowl competition. Georgia Tech has been to a bowl during 19 of the last 20 years. Kentucky hasn't been in a bowl game since 2010. The Wildcats are just relieved to received a bowl bid. The Wildcats' season was made when they upset in-state rival Louisville, 41-38. Note, though, Louisville gained 561 yards on the Wildcats rushing for an average of 6.1 yards per carry. SEC teams such as Kentucky don't face triple option offenses such as Georgia Tech's. I don't see the Wildcats being able to stop the Yellow Jackets. Kentucky surrenders more than 31 points per game. Their rush defense ranks 109th and their total defense is 89th allowing more than 442 yards per game. Georgia Tech ranks in the top 10 in rushing yards averaging 257.4. The Yellow Jackets have come on after a slow start to go 5-1. I like the experience and dual threat ability of Yellow Jackets quarterback Justin Thomas. I like Johnson as a coach. Quarterback and coach are two edges Georgia Tech has going. Kentucky lost by three points at home to fellow SEC foe Georgia while Georgia Tech defeated the Bulldogs on the road.
12-30-16	Bulls v. Pacers -4	Top	101-111	Win	100	15 h 54 m	Show
The Pacers are in circle-the-wagons mode having dropped four in a row, including a 90-85 road loss to the Bulls this past Monday. Indiana has lost 13 of 17 on the road, but is 11-5 at home. The Pacers have won five of their last six home contests, including defeating the Clippers by 21 points and Hornets by 16 during this span. Their backcourt has gotten healthier with the return of Monta Ellis and Paul George broke out of his slump with 34 points in the Pacers' last game a road loss to the Wizards two days ago. Chicago has lost 10 of its 16 road games, including going 0-5 SU and ATS this month. This is a rare week day game, which works against the visitor. The Bulls just squeaked past the lowly Nets by two at home in their last game two days ago thanks to Jimmy Butler, who tweaked his ankle in that game and may not be 100 percent. The Bulls have failed to cover the past seven times following a victory.
12-29-16	Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3	Top	38-8	Loss	-105	18 h 12 m	Show
Playing in a bowl game, especially a minor one such as this, is no big deal for Oklahoma State. This will be the 11th straight year the Cowboys have gone bowling under Mike Gundy. This game is a big deal for Colorado, though. The Buffaloes suffered during their first five years in the Pac-12 while coach Mike MacIntyre was laying a foundation. Everything came together for the Buffaloes this season as they went 10-3 and captured the Pac-12 South Division. The Buffaloes were dominated by top-four power Washington in the Pac-12 championship game. Colorado senior quarterback Sefo Liufau suffered an ankle injury early in that game and didn't play well. He'll be fine here and the Buffaloes have huge motivation to erase the stigma of that Pac-12 title game loss and capture their first bowl win since 2004. The Buffaloes will be ready for prime time after getting some tough experience with it during the Pac-12 championship game. That loss and national exposure provided needed big-game experience for them. Colorado has covered in 11 of its last 14 games and is 7-2 ATS the past nine times when taking on above .500 opponents. Incentive isn't enough, though, to just go with Colorado. I see the Buffaloes having key matchup edges. The Buffaloes and star running back Phillip Lindsay should pile up yards rushing against the Cowboys, who give up an average of 204.4 yards on the ground per game. Liufau is a good running quarterback, too, and doesn't turn the ball over. Oklahoma State has a balanced offense. Colorado, however, has proven itself against elite running backs holding both Stanford's Christian McCaffrey and Utah's Joe Williams to less than 100 yards rushing. The Buffaloes also have the 13th best pass defense giving up just 182.2 yards through the air so Mason Rudolph won't have it easy. Oklahoma State hasn't faced a pass defense this good all season.
12-28-16	Northwestern +5 v. Pittsburgh	Top	31-24	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
While I respect Pittsburgh's offense its defense isn't good enough to keep Northwestern from pulling the upset. Northwestern has excellent skill position talent - including running back Justin Jackson - that can take full advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that allows 35.6 points a game, ranks 97th in yards allowed and 127th in pass defense. Jackson has nearly 4,000 career rushing yards. Northwestern quarterback Clayton Thorson improved immensely as the season progressed finishing with an 18-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last eight games. Pittsburgh has excellent skill position players, too, headed by its star running back, James Connor. However, the Panthers are going up against a much stronger defense as the Wildcats hold opponents to just 22.1 points a game. The Panthers also have to deal with the distraction of their offensive coordinator, Matt Canada, announcing he was leaving to become offensive coordinator at LSU. Note, too, that the Panthers have failed to cover in their last six non-conference games. The Panthers also haven't defeated a Power 5 team in the postseason since 2010.
12-27-16	Washington State -10 v. Minnesota	Top	12-17	Loss	-115	26 h 0 m	Show
Minnesota lacks the quarterback, pass defense and strength of schedule to stay within single digits of Washington State. Washington State's Luke Falk is one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He's completed 71 percent of his passes for 4,204 yards with a 37-to-10 touchdown to interception ratio. The Cougars also have a decent ground attack and their best defense in the five years Mike Leach has been their coach. Falk has a versatile group of receivers with 10 difference players catching at least one touchdown pass. The Cougars rank No. 2 in passing yards per game. Minnesota ranks 70th in pass defense. The Gophers also had the second-worst pass defense in the Big Ten, a conference not known for their quarterbacks. Making matters worse for the Gophers is that several of their defensive backs, including two starters, are among 10 players suspended for the game. The Gophers missed practices by threatening to boycott the game in protest of the suspensions, which stemmed from an incident in an off-campus apartment back in early September. The threaten boycott never materialized. The Gophers don't have the speed nor talent to defend against Washington State's high-powered offense. Minnesota hasn't faced this type of fast-tempo style playing a weak schedule being in the Big Ten. The Big Ten has been terrible against the spread in bowl play going 32-45 ATS, including 2-5 ATS last season and 0-1 ATS this season with Maryland losing straight-up as a short favorite against Boston College. Minnesota's weak offense can't keep up with Washington State. Mitch Leidner threw just seven touchdown passes and had 12 interceptions. He's one of the weaker quarterbacks in the Big Ten.
12-26-16	Nuggets v. Clippers +4	Top	106-102	Push	0	10 h 4 m	Show
It's strange to see the Nuggets a road favorite against the Clippers. But the Nuggets are rested while the Clippers played last night. Denver is such a strong road favorite, though, because the Clippers are going to be without three starters - Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and J.J. Redick. Despite all this I like the Clippers to beat the Nuggets. The Nuggets remain a lottery team. Their defense ranks among the bottom-six in points allowed and shooting percentage. The Nuggets lack consistent scoring weapons. Their strength is rebounding and DeAndre Jordan can negate that. The Clippers are going to be fired-up with their desperate injury situation and off an embarrassing 111-102 loss to the Lakers last night at Staples Center. LA still is respectable in the backcourt with veteran Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers. The Clippers have beaten the Nuggets in six of the last seven meetings, including 119-102 six days ago at home. The Clippers were minus 8 in that game. Now we have a line change of 12 points. It's too much of an adjustment. The Clippers won that game without Griffin and totally dominated Denver's backcourt.
12-25-16	Clippers -6.5 v. Lakers	Top	102-111	Loss	-110	19 h 42 m	Show
Death, taxes and the Clippers beating the Lakers. Those are about the only sure things in life. The Clippers have defeated the Lakers 11 consecutive times winning by an average of 22.6 points during the past 10 meetings. The Lakers are listed as the home team, but both teams play their home games at Staples Center so that is negated. The Clippers are furious after losing 90-88 at home to the Mavericks two days ago. They'll be ready here to pound a team they've long hated since LA has always been a Lakers town. The spot is bad for the Lakers returning home after a seven-game, two-week road trip that didn't finish until Friday night. The Lakers are not playing well after an early hot start dropping 12 of their past 13 going 3-10 ATS. They went 1-6 on their road trip. This is a cheap price to back the much superior, motivated Clippers.
12-25-16	Broncos +3 v. Chiefs	Top	10-33	Loss	-100	60 h 43 m	Show
These teams just met four weeks ago and the Broncos outgained the Chiefs, 464-273. The Chiefs, though, scored a touchdown with 12 seconds left to force in overtime. The Broncos tried a long field goal in overtime that missed and the Chiefs took advantage of the good field position to kick a game-winning field goal with two seconds left. That was in Denver. But the Chiefs have failed to cover in eight of their last 10 games at Arrowhead Stadium, going 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Trevor Siemian has thrown for 984 yards and four touchdowns with one interception during his last three games. Alex Smith has thrown a mere 12 touchdowns passes for the season. Siemian is the more dangerous quarterback and Denver has the superior wide receivers. The Broncos still have their Super Bowl caliber defense. The Broncos have surrendered only 10 touchdown passes and lead the AFC with 40 sacks, with Von Miller accounting for 13 1/2 sacks. Denver is No. 1 in pass defense, No. 2 in fewest yards allowed and fifth in fewest points given up. The Chiefs yield the fifth-most yards per game. Their defense is minus injured star linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Chiefs have the record they have because they have scored seven touchdowns via their defense or special teams while not giving up any in those areas. While the Chiefs deserve credit for being opportunistic they also are lucky. It's far from a given that the Chiefs will score a non-offensive touchdown. They aren't good enough to cover this margin without that type of occurrence.
12-23-16	Eastern Michigan v. Old Dominion -4.5	Top	20-24	Loss	-130	11 h 3 m	Show
The marketplace has bet this game up - and the move is right. Both teams are strong offensively, but Old Dominion has the superior defense and an edge in this setting. This game is being played in the Bahamas where the temperature will be in the high 70's with the humidity being close to 80. Old Dominion is used to this type of weather having played most of its games in heat. Eastern Michigan last played on Nov. 22. The Eagles have been enduring freezing weather being in an extremely cold region. They didn't fly to Nassau until a few days ago leaving snow and seven degree temperatures. Look for the Eagles to run out of gas playing in humidity they are unaccustomed to in what shapes up to be a high-scoring game. Old Dominion played at Eastern Michigan last season and won 38-34. The Monarchs average 36 points, which is six points more than Eastern Michigan scores per game. Old Dominion has a balanced offense. The Monarchs have scored at least 30 points in each of their last five games, all victories. Defensively, Old Dominion gives up three fewer points per game than Eastern Michigan and nearly 60 fewer yards than the Eagles. Eastern Michigan relies heavily on its quarterback, Brogan Roback. Look for Old Dominion to key on him.
12-21-16	BYU -10 v. Wyoming	Top	24-21	Loss	-110	48 h 57 m	Show
The combination of BYU being strong on both sides of the ball and Wyoming being overrated - the Cowboys actually lost to UNLV - puts me on the Cougars. BYU travels well and will have strong fan support for this bowl game in San Diego. The Cougars are the more mature team with older students, which helps in bowl situations. BYU is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games, while Wyoming has failed to cover seven of its last 10 nonleague games. Wyoming is 1-3 in its last four games losing by three points in overtime to UNLV on the road, splitting with San Diego State and losing at New Mexico by 21. BYU is 7-1 in its last eight games. The Cougars beat Michigan State by 17 on the road, won at Cincinnati by 17 and lost by just one point at Boise State. Both teams have outstanding running backs, Brian Hill for Wyoming and Jamaal Williams for BYU. The key here is defense. Wyoming permits 34.8 pints a game and ranks among the bottom 17 in the nation in yards allowed per game. BYU, on the other hand, holds foes to just 19.4 points per game, which was 15th-best in the country. The Cougars rank 33rd overall in total defense and are in the top-10 in run defense. Wyoming is going to have to pass well to stay with the Cougars. Cowboys sophomore quarterback Josh Allen has been prone to interceptions getting picked off 13 times. I'm fine with BYU going with Tanner Mangum at quarterback instead of Taysom Hill, who was injured at the end of the regular season. Mangum has filled in well before when Hill has gotten injured. As a freshman last season, Mangum completed 60 percent of his throws for 3,377 yards and 23 touchdowns.
12-21-16	Kings v. Jazz -7	Top	94-93	Loss	-108	8 h 24 m	Show
The Jazz have the discipline and defense to blow out the Kings. The timing also is right for this to occur. Sacramento is coming off a thrilling and satisfying comeback home victory against the Trail Blazers last night. DeMarcus Cousins scored 55 points after nearly getting thrown out of the game. That was a tough battle for the Kings. Now they play for the third time in four days and without rest in high altitude. The Kings are playing without injured Rudy Gay, their second-best player, too. While the Kings are now 6-6 at home, they are 5-11 on the road. Their road spread mark is better at 7-9, but still .under 500. Sacramento also has failed to cover the last five times following a victory. Utah usually takes care of business against lesser teams. The well-coached Jazz are 10-4-1 ATS the past 15 times they've played opponents with a winning percentage below .400. The Jazz are the top defensive team in the NBA. They surrender nine points fewer per game than Sacramento. Utah should be fired-up after getting embarrassed, 104-74, at Golden State last night. The plus to that blowout was no Utah player had to log big minutes. Prior to that loss, Utah had won seven of eight, including four in a row. The Jazz have won 10 of their last 15 in Salt Lake City.
12-20-16	Pacers v. Knicks -5	Top	111-118	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
New York has covered eight of its last 10 home games. The Knicks are well rested having last played on Saturday. They are expected to get back point guard Derrick Rose, too. He had missed New York's last two games with a back injury. Rose isn't as good as when he entered the league with the Bulls because of injuries. However, he's still highly valuable because of his scoring and leadership. New York is 13-10 with him and 1-3 without him. Rose's presence not only gives New York a third scoring option to go with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis, but adds depth to the backcourt where backup point guard Brandon Jennings can come off the bench. The Pacers are 4-10 SU and ATS on the road. They are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 visits to Madison Square Garden. Indiana also carries a high fatigue rating. This marks their fifth game in seven days and second in two nights. The Pacers nipped the Wizards, 107-105, at home Monday night on a short jumper by Thaddeus Young with less than a second left. The Pacers' three best players logged big minutes in that victory. Paul George played more than 40 minutes. Jeff Teague played more than 39 minutes and Young logged more than 37 minutes. The Pacers are short-handed, too, with Monta Ellis out. Indiana has failed to cover 20 of the last 28 times when playing without rest.
12-18-16	Raiders -2.5 v. Chargers	Top	19-16	Win	100	48 h 56 m	Show
Not only does Oakland hold matchup edges with San Diego all but decimated with injuries, but the Raiders are on extra time having last played a week ago Thursday. The Chargers may have the weakest home field in the league. Mike McCoy isn't likely to return as coach and the team probably is going to leave San Diego. There could be as many Oakland fans here as San Diego spectators. Philip Rivers has lost his top weapons with Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen and Danny Woodhead out. The Chargers are down to fifth-string undrafted rookie running back Kenneth Farrow as their main ball carrier. Rivers has thrown 10 interceptions and been sacked 11 times in his last four games as he presses trying to do much to compensate for his team's numerous deficiencies. Derek Carr had problems with an injured finger in Kansas City's cold weather during Oakland's last game. Now, with extra rest and 10 days to heal, Carr should be back to normal. Oakland's offense can take advantage of a Chargers defense that is down two of their run stuffers and two key cornerbacks. San Diego has just six sacks in its last six games. The Raiders have proven themselves on the road under much harsher conditions going 5-1 SU and ATS. Now the Raiders get to play in their normal time zone against a foe they have dominated recently winning the past three times. The Raiders beat the Chargers, 37-29, at San Diego last season after building up a 37-6 lead. The Raiders are much better this season.
12-17-16	Southern Miss -4.5 v. UL-Lafayette	Top	28-21	Win	100	95 h 53 m	Show
Not only does Southern Mississippi play in the stronger conference - Conference USA - but they have a huge quarterback edge on Louisiana-Lafayette, a Sun Belt Conference team. Early bowl steam should be respected and the early money has all been on the Golden Eagles. I agree. It would have been nice to lay less than four points here, but Southern Mississippi is at least a touchdown superior to the Ragin' Cajuns. Southern Mississippi wasn't the same team when star quarterback Nick Mullens had to miss two games last month due to a concussion. But the senior returned in the regular-season finale and led the Golden Eagles to a 39-24 victory as 14 1/2-point 'dogs accounting for four touchdowns. Mullens, not Brett Favre, holds the Southern Mississippi record for touchdown passes and passing yards. Mullens can exploit a vulnerable Lafayette secondary. The Golden Eagles also have a 1,321-yard rusher in Ito Smith. Sparked by this duo, the Golden Eagles average 33.2 points a game and rank 24th in yards. Lafayette's ground-oriented offense can't match that. The Ragin' Cajuns average 10 fewer points per game and 110 yards less per contest. Lafayette's big gun on offense is running back Elijah McGuire, who has rushed for more than 1,000 yards three straight seasons and scored 52 career touchdowns. Southern Mississippi's defense, though, has the second-lowest third-down conversion percentage in the country. The Golden Eagles also feature a top defensive lineman in Dylan Bradley. He should be highly effective operating against Lafayette's underclass interior linemen.
12-14-16	UC-Irvine v. Nevada -11	Top	69-76	Loss	-115	20 h 6 m	Show
Nevada Reno has way too much offense and talent for Irvine, which has height and can play defense but is far too limited offensively. The Wolf Pack are averaging 19 more points per game than Irvine. I like Reno coach Eric Musselman. He's proved especially strong in a favorite's role as the Wolf Pack are 14-3-2 ATS the past 19 times they've been chalk. They also are 14-3-1 ATS during their last 18 home games. Cal Irvine has 23 more turnovers than assists. The Anteaters are shooting 41.6 percent from the field despite a tall front line and hit only 31.3 percent of their 3-pointers. Reno does a great job of not fouling. Irvine averages less than 17 free throw attempts per game. Irvine has no backdoor ability to cover if it should fall far behind, which I expect. This shapes up as a blowout win for the Wolf Pack. The opening number is short.
12-13-16	Warriors v. Pelicans +10.5	Top	113-109	Win	100	21 h 57 m	Show
The record shows New Orleans to be 8-17. But the Pelicans are 5-4 when starting point guard Jrue Holiday plays. Holiday returned to the Pelicans' lineup this past Sunday after missing the previous three games and helped New Orleans end a five-game losing with an overtime road victory against Phoenix. Holiday scored 23 in the win. That win and Holiday's return should put the Pelicans in a good spot here. They catch Golden State playing its fifth road game in seven days. The long road trip has taken a toll on Kevin Durant, who has made less than 38 percent of his shots from the floor during the last four games. New Orleans has a frontcourt advantage thanks to Anthony Davis, the best big man in basketball. Davis can really put up monster numbers if Warriors starting center Zaza Pachulia has to miss a third straight game due to a wrist injury. Pachulia does a lot of the dirty work underneath for the Warriors receiving none of the publicity that Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green draw. Golden State doesn't have a good recent history in these type of matchups failing to cover eight of the last nine times when facing a foe with less than a .400 home winning percentage. The Warriors return home following this game to begin a three-game homestand so their focus may not be 100 percent.
12-11-16	Pelicans +4.5 v. Suns	Top	120-119	Win	100	10 h 38 m	Show
Knowing they weren't going to beat the Clippers on the road last night, the Pelicans did the smart thing. They rested big man Anthony Davis. Davis should be in for a monster performance against the guard-oriented Suns. New Orleans isn't going to lack for motivation not only looking to put a halt to a losing skid but gain revenge for a 112-111 home overtime loss suffered to Phoenix last month. That may have been the Pelicans' toughest defeat of the season. While New Orleans is playing without rest, the Suns are in action for the fourth time in six days. Phoenix is 3-6 at home and has failed to cover four of its past five games at home. The Suns have been favored four times this season. Not only have they failed to cover each time, but they were blown out in each instance losing to the Kings by 19 points, Nets by 18, 76ers by 15 and Nuggets by six.
12-11-16	Redskins +1 v. Eagles	Top	27-22	Win	100	111 h 50 m	Show
Washington is clearly the superior team. The Redskins showed that in the team's first meeting back in Week 6 when they outgained the Eagles, 493-239. Washington won 27-20 and the score should not have been that close but the Eagles got two non-offensive touchdowns. Since then the Eagles have gotten worse. They are 2-7 in their last nine games. Philadelphia has allowed 26 or more points in five of its last six games. The Eagles have a terrible secondary and a pass rush that has only managed six sacks in the last six games. Washington has a much better secondary and an explosive offense - which ranks No. 2 in yardage and passing yards - that can take advantage of Philadelphia's many defensive shortcoming. It's a plus if star tight end Jordan Reed plays, but the Redskins have many other receiving weapons, including DeSean Jackson, underrated Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis. The Redskins have won and covered the past four in the series.
12-10-16	Michigan +9 v. UCLA	Top	84-102	Loss	-115	8 h 27 m	Show
UCLA has to deal not only with getting back down from the high of knocking off then-No. 1 Kentucky, but a rust factor, too. The Bruins haven't played since beating the Wildcats a week ago. Michigan is a top-10 defensive club. The Wolverines have proven capable beating Texas. The Bruins are in heady territory. Their youth and maturity could catch up to them here against this well-coached, tough Big Ten team. So I'll take this many points.
12-09-16	Pacers v. Mavs +5	Top	103-111	Win	100	9 h 22 m	Show
Dallas is lottery-bound. We know that. We also know the Mavericks are the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. But the Mavericks still have a number of prideful veterans who are not injured - Wesley Matthews, Deron Williams and Harrison Barnes - and they will be motivated to perform at a high level at home here following an embarrassing 120-89 loss to the Kings two days ago. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle held a team meeting immediately following that game. Carlisle told reporters that the Mavericks' play in the second half of that loss was inexcusable. Now the Mavericks have a chance to make amends against the Pacers, who are 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and playing their fifth consecutive road game. The Pacers are off a 109-94 victory against the Suns on Wednesday. Indiana is 2-8 ATS following a victory. The Pacers could be distracted, too, returning home immediately following this matchup to host Portland on Saturday. The Pacers rank 25th defensively so points shouldn't come so hard for the Mavericks. It's a big drop down in class, too, for the Mavericks. During their last nine games, the Mavericks had had to play the Spurs twice, Clippers, Cavaliers, Hornets twice and Bulls.
12-05-16	Blazers v. Bulls -4	Top	112-110	Loss	-105	8 h 36 m	Show
The Bulls are proven at home. The Trail Blazers have proven to struggle on the road. Chicago has covered five of its seven home games this season and seven of its last nine going back to last season. The Bulls knocked off the Cavaliers, 111-105, at home this past Friday. They then suffered a letdown when they played Saturday in Dallas losing 107-82. Dwayne Wade was rested in that game. The Bulls and Wade should be ready now. If they lose this game they could be looking at a four-game losing streak as they play at the Pistons on Tuesday and host San Antonio Thursday. Chicago has covered the past five times following a straight-up loss. Portland is 3-6 SU and ATS in its last nine away matchups. The Trail Blazers' only road victories during this span came against the Mavericks, Nets and Grizzlies. Portland is 0-6 ATS versus above .500 opponents. The teams played on Nov. 15 and the Bulls slammed the Trail Blazers, 113-88, in Portland.
12-04-16	Panthers v. Seahawks -7	Top	7-40	Win	100	44 h 58 m	Show
Expect the Seahawks to take no prisoners here in a double revenge spot against the Panthers, who beat them in the regular season and playoffs last season. The Seahawks are at their finest during the home stretch going 18-4 SU, 16-6 ATS from November through January during the regular season. Seattle has the best outdoor home advantage in football and the Seahawks fans will be rocking here in this nationally televised matchup. The Seahawks have gotten healthier while the Panthers are demoralized and extremely banged-up. Cam Newton is having a down season. The Panthers haven't been able to protect him giving up 32 sacks. Carolina is down to its third-string center. Seattle has star safety Earl Thomas back and elite pass rusher Michael Bennett should be back, too. Russell Wilson is finally healthy. That makes him a dual threat. He'll take advantage of a Carolina defense missing its leading tackler and emotional leader, Luke Kuechly, top pass rusher Mario Addison, who leads the team with nine sacks, and free safety Kurt Coleman. All three are injured.
12-03-16	San Diego State v. Wyoming +7	Top	27-24	Win	100	25 h 41 m	Show
The host has won all three Mountain West Conference title games. Look for Wyoming to contribute to that trend. Wyoming averages nine more points per game than San Diego State and the Aztecs' defense has vanished the last two weeks. Just two weeks ago, Wyoming nipped San Diego State, 34-33, in Laramie as 10-point 'dogs. The score shouldn't have been that close, but San Diego State returned two kickoffs for touchdowns and scored another touchdown on a Hail Mary pass. Wyoming outgained San Diego State by 97 yards and had 12 more first downs. Now the Aztecs have to return to Laramie where the temperature forecast is for the teens-to-low 20's. Not exactly San Diego beach weather. Wyoming has proven itself at home beating Northern Illinois, Air Force, Boise State along with San Diego State. The Cowboys were at least a touchdown 'dog in all of those games. After losing to Wyoming, San Diego State got buried by Colorado State, 63-31, at home last week. The Rams picked up 507 yards in that game. The Aztecs heavily rely on running back Donnell Pumphrey. But he's gotten worn down having carried the ball 305 times this season. Pumphrey hasn't run for more than 76 yards in each of the last two games. Wyoming has its own outstanding runner, Brian Hill, plus playmaking deep threat Tanner Gentry and quarterback Josh Allen.
12-02-16	Colorado v. Washington -7.5	Top	10-41	Win	100	21 h 32 m	Show
Colorado's had a great season, but now the Buffaloes meet their Waterloo here in the Pac-12 title game. Washington has the conference's top defense yielding just 17.8 points per game, a big edge in speed and skill position players with Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Year quarterback Jake Browning and a special teams advantage in both returns and place-kicking. The Huskies also have big-game experience, which Colorado lacks. Add this all up and the Huskies win by double-digits. Washington is the fresher team off consecutive blowout victories against Arizona State and Washington State. Colorado is off a tough physical 27-22 home win against Utah last week. The week before the Buffaloes came from trailing late in the third quarter to win against Washington State, 38-24. The Huskies have won their bowl game in three of the past four years. Their coach, Chris Peterson, has a history of big game having coached at Boise State. Colorado hasn't been on the national stage in years. The Buffaloes' last bowl appearance was nine years ago. Their coach, Mike MacIntyre, did a great job this season but he doesn't have Peterson's bowl and big game resume. Style points matter here, too, for the Huskies. They want a college football playoff berth so a big spread win would help that cause. The Huskies already have beaten nine opponents by at least 24 points.
12-01-16	CS Sacramento v. Pacific -10	Top	58-74	Win	100	8 h 23 m	Show
Sacramento State plays in the Big Sky, a very weak conference. The Hornets haven't covered a game all season. They're likely to get blown out here against a superior Pacific team that is looking to make a strong statement at home under first year head coach Damon Stoudamire. Pacific has played the stronger competition and are coming off a road loss to Nevada. This sets up as a kill spot for the Tigers. Sacramento State coach Brian Katz was quoted as saying this about the matchup: "We haven't played great yet. We think we will, but we haven't at this point. We know Pacific is really good, but I like our group in the long term. By league time, I think we'll be very competitive." That sure doesn't sound like a coach confident of his team right now.
12-01-16	Cowboys v. Vikings +3	Top	17-15	Win	103	7 h 32 m	Show
Dallas is on a tremendous roll, but that stops here. The Cowboys aren't that strong to be laying this number on the road against this classy of a defense and against this strong of a home field, which ranks among the best in football. Stefon Diggs is expected to play, which is huge for the Vikings. Sam Bradford's short passing game will be a lot more effective at home and with Diggs in the lineup. The Cowboys do not have a strong secondary. Their defense relies on their offense to play ball control. The Vikings give up the second-fewest points and third-fewest yards. The short time frame also hurts the visiting Cowboys.
11-30-16	Spurs -8.5 v. Mavs	Top	94-87	Loss	-105	11 h 54 m	Show
I want San Antonio going for me after the Spurs played their worst game of the season in a 95-83 home loss to the lowly Magic Tuesday night. That loss snapped a nine-game San Antonio win streak and can't make Gregg Popovich too happy. Neither can the fact that the Spurs had their lowest-scoring game of the season and committed a season-high 19 turnovers. I have to believe the Spurs are going to be highly motivated for this matchup. Dallas is the perfect patsy, too, with the worst record in the NBA at 3-13. The Mavericks' only victories have come against the Pelicans, Bucks and Lakers. None of those teams have a winning record. There is zero chance of the Spurs taking the Mavericks lightly either since Dallas hung with them in a 96-91 road loss on Nov. 21. The Mavericks missed a jumper with 15 seconds left in that game that would have given them the lead. The Spurs shouldn't feel fatigued since before last night they had been idle for two days. The Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games while the Mavericks have failed to cover in seven of their last nine home games and are 0-8 ATS the past eight times at home when hosting an opponent with a winning road mark. The Mavericks remain without injured Dirk Nowitzki. They are thin at point guard due to injuries and rank last in all of the major offensive categories - scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. San Antonio ranks sixth in fewest points allowed. Dallas plays at Charlotte on Thursday. The Mavericks stand a better chance of beating that opponent than San Antonio. So the Mavericks may play their bench longer if they fall too far behind in an effort to conserve energy for Thursday.
11-28-16	Packers +4 v. Eagles	Top	27-13	Win	100	22 h 14 m	Show
Talent-wise the Packers are better than the Eagles. Philadelphia is tough at home, but Green Bay is way overdue to play better. I see that occurring here as the Packers are improved on offense and their defense is getting key players back. Clay Matthews played last week and cornerback Damarious Randall and linebacker Jake Ryan are expected back Monday. The Packers have outstanding wide receiver depth. Cornerback is a major weakness for the Eagles. One player Aaron Rodgers will look to target is seventh-round rookie draft choice Jalen Mills. Rodgers has the receiving depth to go after Mills with Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams and Randall Cobb. It's a plus for Green Bay's offense that tight end Jared Cook is back. James Starks provides enough of a running threat for the Eagles to respect play-action. Carson Wentz lacks the playmakers Green Bay has. He's inconsistent as most rookies are and won't be able to match Rodgers. The Eagles have the worst receivers in the league and their best running back, Ryan Mathews, is out. Green Bay's defense has been torched the past few weeks. But the Packers' last four games have been against very strong offenses - Redskins, Titans, Colts and Falcons. All of those teams have above average quarterbacks. The Eagles don't. Much is made of Green Bay not playing well, but the Eagles are just 1-3 in their last four games. This is the right time now to jump on the Packers.
11-27-16	Titans -3 v. Bears	Top	27-21	Win	100	136 h 40 m	Show
The answer is yes I can trust the Titans on the road - against this battered foe whose season is shot. Tennessee is in must-win mode at 5-6. Marcus Mariota showed potential as a rookie last season and he has burst out into star status during the last seven weeks throwing 19 touchdown passes with just three interceptions during this span. The Titans are averaging 31 points during this time frame. The Titans aren't one-dimensional offensively. DeMarco Murray still is an elite running back. He has five 100-yard rushing games this season. Injuries have turned the Bears from a slightly-below .500 type team into a bottom feeder ranking among the five worst teams in the NFL. Chicago may shut down Jay Cutler, who has no chance of sparking an offense composed of backup receivers and backup offensive linemen. Alshon Jeffery and Zach Miller are Cutler's two top targets. Jeffery is suspended and Miller is likely done for the year after suffering a broken foot this past Sunday. The Bears have multiple offensive line injuries, too, along with key defensive players out or suspended. About the only strength Chicago had was its run defense, but that is now a weakness, too, with nose tackle Eddie Goldman missing last week. Mariota and Murray can light up this defense. Dick LeBeau has improved Tennessee's defense. The Titans now have a respectable pass rush. Their secondary is vulnerable, but the Bears lack the necessary passing attack to take advantage. Chicago's home field advantage is just about nil. The Bears have dropped 12 of their last 15 at Solider Field going 5-10 ATS in those games.
11-26-16	Oregon -3 v. Oregon State	Top	24-34	Loss	-111	21 h 9 m	Show
The numbers are 34, 21, 24, 12, 27 1/2, and 16 1/2. Those are the spreads Oregon has been favored against Oregon State during the last six years. Oregon has won all of those games against arch-rival Oregon State with only one of the victories being by less than 10 points. Yes, Oregon fell off a cliff this season, their worst in two decades. But the Ducks still hold a major talent gap, are off a victory that shows they still can be dangerous are treating this matchup as their Super Bowl. I want all that going for me and this short spread is a path to involvement. Oregon State is having another crummy year at 3-8. That's to be expected. The Beavers are always a lower tier Pac-12 team. What's shocking is Oregon falling to 4-7. The Ducks, though, are coming off a 30-28 upset win of then-11th ranked Utah. That victory can't salvage a lost season for the Ducks, but it does give them confidence going into this traditional in-state rivalry matchup. Oregon's offense remains potent behind Justin Herbert. It's a big step down in defensive class that Oregon is used to seeing after facing Utah, Southern Cal and Stanford during its last three games. The road team has dominated this series going 9-1-1 ATS the past 11 times. Oregon is 5-0 ATS the past five times playing at Oregon State.