Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-29-23 | La Salle v. Temple OVER 142.5 | Top | 99-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #657 CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs La Salle Explorers @ 7 ET - This is part of the Philly Big 5 tourney and I love the fact that this total has gone from the upper 140s to the low 140s. The current number is in the 143 range as of early game day morning. The Explorers and Owls both play at a decent pace. Both shoot a lot of threes. Both are comfortable, of course, playing here in Philly. La Salle is the road team here but it is no big deal as Fran Dunphy just got his 600th career win and the Explorers coach was the head coach here at Temple for many years too. I like the fact that LaSalle has seen 4 different leading scorers in its last 5 games. It shows you they do not have to rely on just one guy. The Explorers have averaged 75 ppg in the 5 wins in their 5-1 start to the season and they even scored 66 in their loss to DUKE! La Salle should score very well here but I am on crazy about their defensive capabilities. Though the Owls rely more heavily on their top scorer Hysier Miller. They have other solid scoring options too and will make their way through this defense without a problem, especially with confidence in their own arena! The Owls have been held below 73 points just once this season and are allowing 70 ppg but averaging 75. This one should get into the 150s given all of the above and so I do feel we have solid line value in a game that should be back and forth and reach at least the 150 mark. These guys push hard in this Philly Big 5 games and I expect exciting game here! 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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11-29-23 | FC Copenhagen v. Bayern Munich OVER 3.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 29 m | Show |
Rotation #224249: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 -105 in Bayern Munich vs FC Copenhagen @ 3 ET - This one sets up well for goals from both clubs and I love the over here. It says something for sure in the fact that the books are holding the total on this one at a solid 3.5 across the board. Indeed, I am projecting a 3-1 type match here at a minimum. FC Copenhagen is in a dogfight for 2nd place in this group with Galatasaray and Manchester United. As such, they will need to push hard for the full 3 points in this one but, of course, the odds are heavily stacked against them as they face one of the top clubs in the world and in Munich no less! Even with that however, the point is that Copenhagen must throw caution to the wind and go for it here! That will of course expose them in their own end of the pitch on the counterattack and Bayern Munich has the attackers to make life miserable for the visitors here. The hosts have easily locked up the #1 spot in this group already but they still want to put on a strong show at home here plus have so much club depth that is so talented. They will be scoring well again on Copenhagen here but I also love that the visitors are off some recent high-scoring matches! 4 of their last 5 matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 5 goals apiece. Consider that plus an inability to stop Bayern Munich on their own pitch here and the goals are sure to fly in this one. 10* OVER 3.5 -105 in Bayern Munich |
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11-29-23 | Manchester United v. Galatasaray OVER 3 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #224233: Champions League | Group Stage: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -105 in Galatasaray vs Manchester United @ 12:45 ET - Important match for both clubs and I love the over here. It says something for sure in the fact that the books are holding the total on this one at a solid 3. Indeed, I am projecting a 2-2 type match here. Galatasaray has plenty of attacking power but they have some concerns regarding defensive personnel entering this one. Also, Manchester United has revenge from losing the reverse fixture on home soil. Couple that with the fact that Man U is starting to score goals and regain confidence plus enter this one off an exciting 3-0 win in EPL action, there is plenty of reason to expect an exciting affair here in Istanbul. 10* OVER 3 -105 in Galatasaray |
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11-28-23 | Ducks v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NHL - OVER 6.5 -120 in Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks @ 10:07 ET - The Ducks are mired in a losing streak but this Anaheim team has some talent up front. Problem is that they have been a sieve in their own end of the rink. In their current 6-game losing streak they are allowing 5 goals per game! I know Anaheim has not been scoring well of late but Vancouver enters this one having some struggles of their own in terms of goals conceded. The Canucks have allowed 3.3 goals per game in a 4-5 stretch their last 9 games. Vancouver has scored an average of 4 goals per game this season and is a heavy favorite here with good reason. Look for a 5-3 type game! OVER 6.5 - 120 in Vancouver |
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11-28-23 | Golden Knights v. Oilers -140 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
NHL - Edmonton Oilers -140 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:07 ET - This line has been moving strongly toward Edmonton. Keep in mind Edmonton started the season very poorly and the Golden Knights started the season on fire plus they are the defending champs. Yet, look at what this line is doing here. What does that tell you? Exactly...there is some sharp money coming in on the Oilers here. This is a playoff revenge situation plus Vegas is in the 2nd game of a B2B and has struggled to score goals of late. The Oilers are playing a fresh brand of hockey under their new head coach and off B2B high-scoring wins plus going for a 4th straight home ice win. Oilers want this game bad against the defending champs that eliminated them last season! Lay it! EDMONTON -140 |
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11-28-23 | NC State +2 v. Ole Miss | Top | 52-72 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #629 CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play NC State Wolfpack (+) @ Ole Miss Rebels @ 9 ET - The Wolfpack are a 2 or 2.5 dog in this one as of about 11 hours before tipoff. This line actually opened with NC State as a small favorite in some spots. I love fading line moves like this. First off, Ole Miss is undefeated. Secondly, the Rebels are at home. Thirdly, the line is moving toward the undefeated home team on their home floor. I will grab the dog often in spots like this and particularly when are 1-loss team is coming off that very first loss of the season. The Wolfpack are a solid team loaded with upperclassmen. This is part of the ACC/SEC annual battle and I like the fact the Rebels last 3 wins have all come by slim margins - an average margin of victory of just 1.7 points - and now they face the toughest test yet! This will be the toughest team they have faced and the Wolfpack not in a good mood coming off that loss. Give me the motivated ACC dog that won nearly TWICE as many games as Ole Miss last season! 10* NC State (+) |
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11-28-23 | Raptors +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 103-115 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - First off this line looks funny with Brooklyn only a 1.5 point favorite as of about 10 hours before tipoff. Why are the Nets such a small home favorite here? Glad you asked! The fact is Brooklyn is dealing with some injury concerns entering this one and that will impact both their effectiveness and team depth in this one. Also, they are off B2B wins here and not going to be as hungry as a Toronto team that is off a loss and has gone 5-0 the last 5 times this season in which they are off a defeat in which they scored 107 points or less. Look for this hungry Raptors to make it 6 in a row in this situation. Do not let the line fool you here! 10* TORONTO +1.5 |
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11-28-23 | Hurricanes v. Flyers +144 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
NHL - Philadelphia Flyers +145 vs Carolina Hurricanes @ 7:35 ET - Carolina is certainly a strong club but they have had some issues this season and the Flyers have been a scrappy team that has played well early this season and really surprised a lot of people in the NHL. They will have Carter Hart in goal for this one and he has been strong early this season and the underdog Flyers are a great value pick in this one. PHILADELPHIA +145 |
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11-28-23 | RB Leipzig v. Manchester City OVER 3 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #224229: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -130 in Manchester City vs RB Leipzig @ 3 ET - I am looking for a wide open affair. Both clubs are already set to advance as City beat Leipzig 3-1 in the reverse fixture and that is what has them 1-2 in their group in the standings. That said Leipzig can go all out here and try to pull off a miracle big win on the road as they have nothing to lose. However, City come into this one a bit angry plus could get Grealish back. That said, they will be very aggressive here because they are off B2B draws in EPL action including a 1-1 match versus Liverpool in which they know they made a mistake getting far too conservative with a 1-0 lead. They will be very aggressive here at home and remember their prior match was a 4-4 draw with Chelsea. They have averaged scoring 3 goals per match last 7 matches and only the most recent one stayed under 3 goals so we have solid value with the total on this one! 16 of last 20 RB Leipzig matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. City favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line but RB Leipzig is talented and will play freely here given the situation so that means a 3-1 or 4-2 or 3-2 type final appears to be in the cards here. Plenty of scoring here as both clubs go all out in attack mode here. 10* OVER 3 -130 in Manchester City |
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11-28-23 | Celtic v. Lazio OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #224205: Champions League | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Lazio vs Celtic @ 12:45 ET - Lazio at home is favored by 1 goal on the goal line and I agree with that assessment. I also do not feel Celtic will be shutout here. That puts this match up to at least a 2-1 final the way I see it. Both clubs have motivation here so there will be aggression on the attack. Also, each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have finished 2-1. Celtic has seen 9 of last 10 matches across all competitions total at least 3 goals and those averaged 4 goals apiece. Lazio tends to be lower scoring but they are off a 2-1 loss in Serie A action and will take advantage of facing a weaker foe in this one. Lazio's most recent match in Champions League was a 1-0 win but they both scored and conceded in the 4 matches before that. More of the same expected here and the hosts get a 1-goal win and that means 2-1 at a minimum here the way I see it! 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Lazio |
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11-27-23 | Utah v. St. Mary's OVER 133.5 | Top | 78-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #867: CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER 133.5 in St Mary's Gaels vs Utah Utes @ 11 PM ET - The Gaels are off an 89-55 win and will carry momentum after scoring big on their home floor. The Utes continue to score big early this season but have not been great on the defensive end so I am expecting plenty of scoring here. Utah is off a game in which they scored 82 points but lost as they gave up 91 to St John's. However, they also faced a tough Houston team, known for defense, and they managed to score 66 points in that loss. They are averaging 82 points per game this season but have allowed 71 per game. All their games have totaled at least 135 points and the Gaels have scored well in 2 of their 3 home games and enter this one with confidence after a hot shooting effort. That carries over into this one plus the Utes continue their high-scoring style. 10* OVER 133.5 in St Mary's |
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11-27-23 | Bears v. Vikings OVER 44 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears @ 8:15 ET - This total is a 44 as of early gameday morning. Considering all the unders cashing consistently in the NFL this season and all the primetime unders as well, this total seems too high, does it not? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. This divisional showdown between two teams generally known for defense more than offense might surprise people to see a total posted in the mid-40s. It is no mistake! Note that the Bears will have Justin Fields back at QB for this one. The Vikings Josh Dobbs has been solid at QB so far since being acquired from the Cardinals. Now, look at some recent numbers for these teams. The Bears have given up piles of points when away from Soldier Field this season. Chicago is allowing 29 ppg this season when they are away from home. The Vikings defense has been solid overall this season but even they are allowing 22 ppg at home this season. The Bears offensive production can ramp up again with Fields under center and the Vikings low points allowed numbers hides the fact that their pass defense has been mediocre. Chicago has a decent ground game that can open things up through the air as the ground attack of Herbert and Foreman (plus Fields dangerous legs) keeps the defense honest as they must respect the ground game. As for the Bears defense, they have struggled against the pass this season and the Vikings have good overall numbers through the air this season. Dobbs is not Kirk Cousins but he has looked solid and should be especially strong at home in this one. The first meeting was just 19-13 (Vikes win) and the posted total was also 44. Now the rematch has the same total despite the first one staying under by double digits and the Vikings having only one offensive TD in that game. Head-scratcher? No...just another solid sign from the books that the play here is the over! I expect 50+ in this one! 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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11-27-23 | Lakers v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 94-138 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Los Angeles Lakers @ 7:10 ET - This line is around a 5.5 or 6 and that is saying the Sixers might only be about a bucket better than the Lakers on a neutral floor. I am just not buying that argument. The Lakers have won 3 straight road games but they lost 5 straight road games prior to that. Also, the Sixers have surprisingly lost each of their last 3 home games so you know they have this one circled on their calendar. This is particularly true because Philly has a couple road games on deck. Also, their most recent win was only by 4 points but this followed the first 9 of 10 Philly wins coming by a margin of at least 7 points and I feel certain this one will too! Lakers have some banged up players and I expect Davis and James to play but neither is likely to be 100% here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-27-23 | Bruins -1.5 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5 +100 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7:07 ET - The Blue Jackets just blew a 2-0 third period lead and lost at Carolina. They were heavily outshot in that game. Columbus is not a very good hockey club plus they used their red hot goalie Merzlikins in that one. He had helped steal a couple wins for them. Now in the 2nd day of a B2B, look for Martin to be in goal here and he has struggled and allowed at least 4 goals in 3 straight appearances! The Bruins have played a tough schedule recently and off B2B losses and defeats in 3 of last 4. After this game they will not play again until Thursday so I fully expect them to take advantage of facing a weaker foe and go all out here in a blowout road win. 6 of the 7 Bruins road wins this season by a multi-goal margin. The Blue Jackets, loss to Hurricanes yesterday notwithstanding, have mostly come by 2 or more goals this season. More of the same here. 10* BOSTON -1.5 +100 |
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11-27-23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Fulham OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 115 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Fulham vs Wolverhampton @ 3 ET - We get line value here because Fulham is one of the lowest scoring clubs in the league. On their home pitch, and catching Wolverhampton off he upset win over Tottenham, don't be surprised when Fulham finds some goal-scoring success in this one. Wolverhampton has both scored and conceded in 10 straight matches across all competitions. Their last 11 matches have averaged 3.5 goals apiece! The Wolves are scoring 2 goals per match last 11 matches and Fulham will get on the board here. Look for this match to find its way to at least a 2-1 final. I know this series has a history of low-scoring matches but the set up for this one is different and Fulham is so hungry for a win in league action. You are going to see them attack a vulnerable Wolves back line in this one but Wolverhampton will, of course, be dangerous on the counter-attack. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Fulham |
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11-27-23 | Universitatea Cluj v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 107 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Universitatea Cluj @ 1:30 ET - Universitatea Cluj is off a scoreless draw but each of their two prior matches totaled at least 3 goals and that included a 3-0 victory for them in their most recent match away from home. Monday they are in the capital of Romania and I expect the goals to fly here in Bucuresti. Rapid is off a rare scoreless draw also but they had scored at least 2 goals in 4 straight matches and averaged scoring 2.2 goals per match in their last 6 matches before that ugly result with Sepsi. Rapid has scored 3 goals per match in their last 5 home matches and will surely bounce back here at home after that ugly draw. That is why I expect the goals to be flying in this one as we also see Universitatea Cluj bouncing back and getting on the board after a scoreless draw. 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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11-27-23 | Sepsi v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #206889: Romania Liga 1: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +105 in FCU 1948 Craiova vs Sepsi @ 10:30 AM ET - FCU 1948 Craiova has both scored and conceded in 5 straight matches. Their 8 home matches this season have averaged 4.5 goals apiece! Sepsi off rare B2B scoreless matches but did score 2 goals in most recent road match. We'll see goals here! This is revenge for a 1-0 loss for FCU 1948 Craiova in the first meeting and 3 of 4 meetings prior to that totaled at least 3 goals and those 3 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! 10* OVER 2.5 +105 in FCU 1948 Craiova |
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11-26-23 | Bulls +4.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Chicago Bulls (+) @ Brooklyn Nets @ 7:40 ET - The Bulls are hungry for a win. They have revenge here against the Nets from a loss earlier this season too. Also, Chicago is catching Brooklyn in the 2nd night of a B2B and off a revenge win over the own. The Nets had revenge against Miami and they got it. Don't be surprised if, based on scheduling dynamics and situational advantage, the Bulls are the more aggressive and fresh team here. I know Caruso and LaVine are each listed as questionable for this one but I expect them to play. Either way, I like the underdog Bulls here in this one and will grab the points, currently around a 4 or 4.5 as of mid-day Sunday. 10* CHICAGO (+) |
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11-26-23 | Illinois-Chicago +3.5 v. NC-Greensboro | Top | 57-58 | Win | 100 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #751: CBB Sunday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames (+) vs UNC Greensboro Spartans @ 7 ET -As I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on UIC, the Flames were off a blowout win Friday so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. Now Illinois-Chicago is 5-1 on the season and that was a solid George Washington team they beat yesterday. Now they face UNC Greensboro. The Spartans are 4-1 on the season and have looked strong but they have hit a very high percentage of 3's recently and now face tough tourney situation in that it is a B2B2B and the hot shooting fades. Couple that with the fact they've been giving up too many offensive boards and this is not the right kind of team to take advantage of the Flames guard-heavy style. The Flames will fare well in this match-up and I like having the sizable points in this one. Also UIC has some height and length edges in guard play as well. Grab the points! Illinois-Chicago (+) |
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11-26-23 | Blue Jackets v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
NHL 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Puck Line -1.5 -120 vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 5:07 ET - This is a great spot because the Jackets are off B2B wins and have NOT won 3 straight games yet this season and now they are in the wrong place at the wrong time. The Hurricanes are off an 8-2 loss to Tampa Bay. It was the night the Lightning got goalie Vasilevskiy back and it was in Carolina! It was an ugly loss despite the fact the Hurricanes allowed only 14 shots on goal in that game. Truly and unheard of type of loss and this Carolina team is too good to not bounce back after a game like that. In fact, they are already 5-0 this season when off a loss in which they were held to 3 or less goals. They will again bounce back here. The Blue Jackets are 0-8 the last 8 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 games dating back to when they ended a 3-game winning streak the season BEFORE last season! Also, of those 8 losses, ALL 5 of the defeats against an Eastern Conference foe were by a multi-goal margin. So we are testing 100% multi-year spot with this puck line play. Lay it! 10* CAROLINA -1.5 -120 |
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11-26-23 | Bills +3 v. Eagles | Top | 34-37 | Push | 0 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (+) @ Philadelphia Eagles @ 4:25 ET - This is a very tough spot for the Eagles. They are off two of their biggest wins of the season as they beat their biggest division rival threat, the Cowboys, and then went out and got Super Bowl revenge at Kansas City Monday night. Short week, traveling, B2B huge wins...and now hosting a Bills team that is off a huge win after firing their offensive coordinator. Before you say it was only the Jets last week, the fact is the New York defense is respectable and the Bills really did a number on them last week. I look for the Eagles to be emotionally spent for this one and I expect Buffalo to take advantage. The Bills have a bye week on deck so they will go all out here. The Eagles did have a bye week between the Cowboys and Chiefs game but I still think this Philly team is going to be out of gas here. Keep in mind, if that pass was not dropped last week, KC wins that game over the Eagles. In my mind, the current Bills, after the OC change, are truly a much better team than their 6-5 record while the Eagles are a very strong team but truly not a 9-1 team. Just look at this line for validation of that. The odds makers are saying this 6-5 team is equal to this 9-1 team and that is why Philly favored by only 3 even though this game is on their home field! That said, the public likely to look hard at the Eagles here but the sharp money - including ours - will be on the Bills. 10* BUFFALO |
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11-26-23 | Browns v. Broncos -114 | Top | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Broncos (-) vs Cleveland Browns @ 4:05 ET - This line is -1 as of about 8 hours before kickoff but why even lay -1 -110 when there is access to -120 or -115 on the money line. The latter is my recommendation on this one and I do look for Denver to come up with a dominating win but, just in case it is tight, would be nice to have a pick'em rather than laying even 1 point. The Browns got a tight win last week but that was at home and now their rookie QB is going on the road for the first time and the Broncos come into this one surging. Also, Cleveland's win with the rookie at QB was over a Steelers team that entered the game 6-3 on the season but has now been outgained in all 10 games this season. The point is that this is going to be a tough spot for Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) as Denver is at home and has won 4 straight games. Even the defense is gaining some confidence as the Broncos have allowed only 17.4 ppg last 5 games and that included facing Chiefs twice plus Bills and Vikings! Both the Browns and Broncos have been winning tight games of late but, again, this is first NFL road game for a rookie QB and if we have another tight game on our hands I will take the now-rejuvenated veteran Russell Wilson over an NFL rookie making his first ever start every time. Look for Wilson and the Broncos to stay red hot. Cleveland might be out of gas off B2B tight, hard-fought late wins over divisional opponents. 10* DENVER (-) |
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11-26-23 | Steaua Bucharesti v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -116 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +110 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs FCSB @ 1:30 ET - There is snow here in Romania this morning but it is a little heavier in the Galati area in comparison with the Bucuresti area where I live. This match is the one today that is in my city and by game time for this one it is expected to have moved out of the area and I expect decent field conditions in Bucuresti for this one. Even with cold weather, you can see the odds makers are holding this total at a 3. This is not a mistake. We should see plenty of fireworks here for this one. There is no love lost between these two Bucuresti clubs and this is a rivalry match that should bring out the best in Dinamo. However, they are near the bottom of the table and FCSB is at the top and the reality is Dinamo will push hard here on the attack but their weak defense will be exploited. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these rivals in Liga 1 action have totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. FCSB enters this match with each of last 3 matches totaling at least 3 goals. Dinamo often struggles to score but they are allowing an average of 2 goals per match this season and plus, with nothing to lose, will go all out on the attack and be aggressive in that end of the pitch. 10* OVER 3 +110 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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11-26-23 | Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - This line is currently as high as +2.5 as of about 6 hours before kickoff and I have been waiting but, of course can't wait too long, hoping we might even see +3 start to pop up. Either way, I don't think we'll even need the points. In my opinion, the Steelers are the worst 6-4 football team in the history of the NFL. They have been outgained in every single game this season. Yes, 10 straight games to start the season Pittsburgh has NEVER won the stats battle. It will catch up with them. They lost to the Browns in OT last week and now this week I expect them to lose to the Bengals. We get line value here with a nice home dog spot on Cincy because of Burrow being out. Don't be surprised if Browning plays well here. It is good he got some action last week and now he's been able to work with the first team offense and prepare all week for this game. He is ready and so is Cincinnati. This is a big game for them. The Steelers have revenge here as they suffered a home loss in the most recent meeting between these division rivals. However, Pittsburgh entered this season 1-6 ATS when playing with revenge and facing a team off a SU loss. The Bengals off tough B2B SU/ATS losses and will bounce back here. In fact, Cincinnati is a PERFECT 7-0 ATS the last 7 times they have entered a game off B2B SU/ATS losses. 10* CINCINNATI + |
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11-26-23 | Manchester United v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #200033: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Everton vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - Everton just handed a 10-point deduction in the table for rules violations so I expect them to respond in a big way here as they are fired up and have been playing well on the pitch but now are in the relegation zone because of the penalty. Manchester United also has been dealing with off the field distractions and needs to respond here. That said, they are sure to bring their A game here as well. I know they have not been scoring well in EPL action but this Man U club has the attackers necessary to close out scoring chances in the final third. I look for them to finally get untracked in this one as I expect an aggressive approach from both clubs given the recent events that transpired. Both want (and need) the full 3 points as Man U even has Championship League place aspirations again this season as they have responded after a slow start to the campaign. That said, a 1-1 type battle here will eventually find its way to at least 2-1 given the incentive of each club in this one. Neither will just settle for a draw here. Man U actually does not have a draw yet in their dozen matches this season and I can not envision either club being held scoreless here. Hence, strong odds that 1-1 becomes 2-1 eventually. Man U off a 1-0 win but that was against Luton Town and Man United had allowed 2.5 goals per match last 4 matches across all competitions prior to that 1-0 win. Everton, across all competitions, has seen 8 of last 12 matches total at least 3 goals. More of the same in store here. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 |
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11-26-23 | CS U Craiova v. Otelul OVER 2 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -120 in Otelul Galati vs Universitatea Craiova @ 10:30 AM ET - There is snow here in Romania this morning and it is a little heavier in the Galati area in comparison with the Bucuresti area where I live. However, by game time for this one it is expected to have moved out of the area and I expect decent field conditions in Galati for this one. The fact this total is down to a 2 makes it a must play for me. Galati has gone 5 straight matches across all competitions without a defeat and they are playing with added confidence plus off a big 4-2 win over UTA Arad. As for Universitatea Craiova, they are off a win in the debut of coach Ivaylo Petev and, across all competitions, have gone 3 straight matches undefeated. So you have a couple clubs playing with confidence and the fact the first match was a scoreless meeting way back early in the season in July is keeping this total lower than it should be. I know Galati are the draw specialists in the league (11 in 16 matches) and we could see 1-1 here but Universitatea Craiova has only a 31% draw rate this season and I am banking on a 2-1 type match here. 10* OVER 2 -120 in Otelul Galati |
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11-26-23 | Aston Villa v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #200029: English Premier League Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -125 in Tottenham vs Aston Villa @ 9 AM ET - Tottenham does have injury issues but this includes to their defense which was a big issue in their most recent matches. That said, Aston Villa is a goal-happy club that is certain to take advantage and be aggressive on the attack in this one. The issue for the visitors is this Hotspur club still has solid attacking options and they are so tough at home and will be able to get some scoring going as well. This one has the makings of a 2-2 type battle. Note that 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. Also, across all competitions, Aston Villa has scored at least 2 goals in 5 of last 6 matches! They averaged scoring 3 goals per match in those 5 matches and are playing with a lot of confidence. Tottenham is averaging scoring 2 goals per match on the season. Don't be surprised if each club reaches the multi-goal mark in this one. 10* OVER 3 -125 |
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11-25-23 | Flyers +137 v. Islanders | Top | 1-0 | Win | 137 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +135 @ New York Islanders @ 7:37 ET - This is a great spot for the underdog Flyers. They lost at home to the Rangers yesterday but outshot New York by nearly a 2 to 1 ratio! Even though Hart was in goal yesterday and that means this will likely be Ersson between the pipes, the latter has been playing quite well in recent starts. Also, Sorokin likely in goal for the Islanders here in this B2B spot and the Isles are off a win yesterday and were at Ottawa. The travel situation actually favors the Flyers here. Also, they have revenge and plus Sorokin, before that start against Philly, has struggled this season. The Flyers are off B2B losses but are already 2-0 this season when they enter a road game on a losing streak of 2 or more games. Look for that record to improve to 3-0 here as before B2B losses they won 5 straight. The Isles have won 3 straight but that included tight wins and, prior to this, they had enduring a long overall losing stretch all the way back to mid-October. Great underdog value here and payback revenge for the Flyers. 10* PHILADELPHIA +135 |
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11-25-23 | Illinois-Chicago -118 v. George Washington | Top | 89-79 | Win | 100 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #655: CBB Saturday 10* Top Play Illinois-Chicago Flames Pick -115 vs George Washington Revolutionaries @ 7 ET - GW is off a double-OT game and that will be tough on them here in this tourney being played in the Bahamas. Also, while they had 4 guys top the 40 minute mark and 1 total 34 minutes, the Flames are off a blowout win so they were able to rest guys and only 2 guys exceeded 27 minutes and neither one of those topped the 31 minute mark. UIC is well-coached and now the coach has been able to assemble the type of roster he wants here. It has been process for sure but this Flames team looks stronger this season than they have been in a long time. There is a reason the 4-1 team is a small favorite over the 5-0 undefeated George Washington team. Don't let the line fool you. Lay it! Illinois-Chicago -115 |
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11-25-23 | 76ers -115 v. Thunder | Top | 127-123 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers -115 @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 5:10 ET - The Sixers off B2B losses including a bad one at Minnesota in which Embiid missed because it was a back to back and he needed to rest his hip. However, he is expected back here and we get nice value because the Sixers are on the road and facing a tough team. I do respect this Thunder team and they are playing solid basketball. However, the Sixers rarely get on losing streaks and I expect them to put a stop to this one here. Last season and into this season they have been very strong when entering a game off B2B losses or 3 losses in a row (rare) and they have not lost 4 straight last season or this season. I like the Sixers team chemistry this season and they will respond here tonight. The road team won both meetings between these teams last season and that included the Thunder winning the most recent game which was at Philly. So the Sixers can also get some payback in this one tonight. The Thunder are tied with Minnesota at the top of the NW Division and they have the Wolves on deck so this is also a lookahead spot for OKC. The Thunder are 6-1 on the road this season but 5-3 at home. Sixers bounce back here. 10* PHILADELPHIA -115 |
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11-25-23 | Alabama -13 v. Auburn | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Alabama Crimson Tide (-) @ Auburn Tigers @ 3:30 ET - This line keeps dropping and is now down to a 13 as for about 7 hours before kickoff. The fact is the Crimson Tide are already locked into the SEC title game next week BUT there is no way they will come out flat in this rivalry game. Coach Nick Saban knows that coach Hugh Freeze has led his teams to a few wins over him in SEC action and no one else has won more than one over him. Not only that, Saban knows his team can not afford come out flat here and have an ugly performance and then expect to be at their best against Georgia next week. So the Tide will be well prepared and roll here as they have been rolling for quite some time now after a slow start this season. They are now 7-0 SU in SEC action on the season while the Tigers are 3-4 SU in SEC games and here is a huge key. The 3 wins for Auburn have come against Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State. Those 3 teams are a combined 2-21 in SEC action this season and are easily the 3 worst teams in the league. Now the Tigers face one of the leagues best and the Crimson Tide have won 4 straight games each by 14 or more points. This line dropping to 13 make this one particularly attractive. The Tigers off that ugly loss last week which completely deflated their confidence. Auburn got hammered by New Mexico State last week! The Tide will bring their A game and are firing on all cylinders right now and win by a multi-TD margin! Mismatch! 10* ALABAMA (-) |
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11-25-23 | Colorado v. Utah -20.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Utah Utes (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 3 ET - This line is around a 20.5 as of 7 hours before kickoff. As long-time followers know, I do not normally lay big points. However, when the situation calls for it, I have no hesitation. This Colorado team is really bad. They are so weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball. So no matter how much talent you have at the skill positions, you struggle as a team. Now, even more concerning for the Buffaloes here is the most key skill position of them all (QB) is an issue heading into this one as Sanders got hurt in most recent game and may not be able to go here. Even if he is under center for this one, he will not be 100% and will be running for his life most of this game. The Utes come into this one angry off a bad loss at Arizona. Utah has lost 3 of 4 but the other two losses were to Oregon and Washington. Those are two very strong teams of course. Also, they did cover against the Huskies and, after the ugly loss to the Ducks, they responded as they so often do. They thrashed Arizona State 55 to 3! Now, after an ugly loss to the Wildcats, I am sure we will see a response here! The Utes are often so strong in the trenches and that is particularly true off a bad loss. Utah is known for toughening up and pounding teams after they themselves suffer a rare beatdown. Whittingham has coached the Utes for nearly two decades and he is the exact opposite of flashy Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders who is in his first year at Colorado and getting a baptism by fire in the Pac-12. The Buffaloes are 4-7 but could just as easily be 1-10 on the season. They get exposed again by a superior team and the Utes will not let up here. 10* UTAH UTES (-) |
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11-25-23 | UTA Arad v. CFR Cluj OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj vs UTA Arad @ 1:30 ET - It will be cold in Cluj-Napoca for this one with temperatures near freezing. However, no snow expected until Sunday. I am expecting decent field conditions for this one and note that CFR Cluj has been one of the best clubs in the league again this season. They will want to prove something here as the manager will have his team fired up about some rumors involving another Romanian manager replacing him. Keep in mind, CFR Cluj has been playing well overall so I think they are going to play very strong here after all this "noise" in particular. Also, they are off a 3-3 draw on the road plus won their most recent home match 3-1. So the goals will be flying here. Arad did lose the first meeting this season between these clubs by an identical 3-1 score. Arad enters this one having scored at least 2 goals in 5 straight matches and these matches have averaged 4.4 goals apiece! 10* OVER 2.5 in CFR Cluj |
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11-25-23 | Arsenal v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #200020: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -115 in Brentford vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Brentford screwed up in their most recent match and tried to go to 5 men on defense and it backfired. It hurt their firepower and they still could not stop Liverpool anyway and lost the match 3 to 0. Prior to that match, Brentford had won 3 straight matches and scored an average of 2.7 goals per match. The Bees will bounce back here in terms of taking a more aggressive approach on the attack. However, Arsenal is having a rock solid season and is near the top of the table and has scored an average of 2 goals per match on the season. Couple that with the Bees in bounceback mode on their home pitch and off a shutout loss, I am looking for at least a 2-1 final in this one but expecting even more. 10* OVER 2.5 -115 in Brentford |
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11-25-23 | Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Ohio State Buckeyes (+) @ Michigan Wolverines @ Noon ET - Michigan has won the last two meetings but this was after many years of domination for Ohio State. The Buckeyes should resume their winning ways in this rivalry this season as this will be the game that the Wolverines being without coach Harbaugh is finally going to come back to bite them. These two teams are quite evenly matched and for me the key angle here is the revenge factor and the coaching factor. It is not often that Ohio State is a dog and, when they are in a range of +3.5 (the line here) to +7.5 it shows you they are playing a quality team but also means the situation is not such a disadvantage that they are a heavy dog. Sure enough the Buckeyes - this includes bowl games - have excelled in this situation of being a dog of more than a FG but less than 8 points. In other words, not a 2-possession line. They have actually gotten the upset on a number of occasions when priced between 3.5 and 7.5 as an underdog but the key is they are a perfect 7-0 ATS last 7 times and no this is not ancient data. It is all since the 2014 season. I like the Buckeyes again in this spot as it makes sense this angle works as you have one of the best teams in the nation getting points. I respect Michigan but they have not looked as sharp past two games and again being without Harbaugh will hurt them as they now face a dominant team that has continued to roll here late in the season. Grab the points, 3.5, as of about 4 and 1/2 hours before kick-off. 10* OHIO STATE + |
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11-25-23 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Voluntari OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in FC Voluntari vs Farul Constanta @ 10:30 AM ET - Hagi, the manager of Farul, will have to be in the stands for this one due to suspension. Though Farul has been playing better of late and they will have to be aggressive here against a Voluntari, this could effect some tactical matters without the tactician on the sideline and that means some extra scoring chances in a wide-open affair. One thing for sure is the weather is nasty here in Bucuresti today (Voluntari a suburb of the city I am currently in) but the slick field could even maximize scoring chances with some defensive slip-ups. One key is that this is a rather new stadium and has one of the better fields in the league. So the rain will not have as much of an impact here as it would in an older venue with a bad field for example. Both clubs are seeing their matches average 3 goals apiece this season and Voluntari has scored well recently but also allowed 2 goals per match last 3. Farul won the last meeting 4-1 but also has allowed 1.5 goals per match last 4 matches as they enter this one. So we should see at least a 2-1 final here. Farul has both scored and conceded in 5 straight matches. 10* OVER 2.5 in FC Voluntari |
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11-25-23 | Chelsea v. Newcastle United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
Rotation #2000091: English Premier League: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -120 in Newcastle United vs Chelsea @ 10 AM ET - Chelsea is a different club under Mauricio Pochettino and have been scoring goals like crazy. Couple that with the fact Newcastle United is on their home pitch and known for scoring much better here than on the road and you have a great set-up for an over. Also, the international break was a much-wanted recovery period for the hosts in this one and they should get some get players back for this one. The result should be at least a 2-1 final in an entertaining affair here. 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -120 in Newcastle United |
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11-24-23 | Pistons +7.5 v. Pacers | Top | 113-136 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Detroit Pistons (+) @ Indiana Pacers @ 8:10 ET - As of about 8 hours before tipoff this line is in the 7.5 range and the Pacers are hurting with some injuries including top scorer Haliburton. Even if he plays, he is dealing with right wrist pain. That will not help in the scoring department. That said, the Pacers have to score a ton to win games because this team just not play defense. There is a reason this line is coming down even though we are talking about a Detroit team (2-13) that has the worst record in the league. Pacers allowing 126.4 ppg and this is the worst mark in the league. If you look at Indiana's last 6 games, none were Pacers wins by more than 6 points and they have gone just 3-3 in those games. There is a reason some action is coming in on a team that has lost 12 straight games, 5 of the last 7 defeats have been by a single digit margin. Look for another very tight game here as the Pistons are very hungry for a win and will take advantage of shoddy defensive play of the Pacers. 10* DETROIT (+) |
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11-24-23 | Jets +123 v. Panthers | Top | 3-0 | Win | 123 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Friday Winnipeg Jets Money Line +125 @ Florida Panthers @ 8:05 ET - The Jets have been hot with wins in 9 of 11. Also, Winnipeg welcomes back coach Bowness for this one after a leave of absence tending to his wife (illness). That said, I look for the Jets to rally around him and him being back and Hellebuyck certainly rates the goalie edge over the Panthers Bobrovsky. The latter has been very inconsistent this season with a number of bad starts. The Panthers also lost the first meeting at Winnipeg this season. This Jets team is just too hot and this is a great underdog price on them. Florida has lost 2 of 4 and this is another tough match-up for them. 10* WINNIPEG +125 |
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11-24-23 | Texas Tech +14 v. Texas | Top | 7-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Texas Longhorns @ 7:30 ET - The Red Raiders are catching +14 here as of early game day morning. This is a big rivalry. These schools definitely do like each other. Even though Texas has revenge and should find a way to win this, I feel the line is far too big. The Red Raiders clinched bowl eligibility last week so you might think they would be flat here. On the contrary though, I feel this will allow Texas Tech to play loose and relaxed and confident here and that makes for a dangerous underdog. The Red Raiders would love nothing more than to prevent Texas from getting to the Big 12 Championship. The Longhorns lost to Oklahoma earlier this season so an OU win, Okla St win and Texas loss would leave Horns out of the picture. I am not saying an upset happens here but I am saying all the pressure is on UT. The Horns are 5-1 SU last 6 games but only one of those wins was by more than 10 points. Also, the Red Raiders are 5-2 SU last 7 games and on a 3-game winning streak SU and their first 3 losses this season were by 8 or less points. They only have 1 loss (17 points) by more than a 13-point margin this entire season. Given all these numbers, a 2-touchdown line here is substantial. Grab the big points. 10* TEXAS TECH (+) |
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11-24-23 | Penn State -22 v. Michigan State | Top | 42-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Penn State Nittany Lions (-) at Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET in Detroit - This is a neutral site venue but of course if favors the Spartans as the game is at Ford Field in Detroit. However, the fact the Nittany Lions are traveling actually is good news for their backers. Penn State lost on the road at Ohio State (as usual) this season but their other 3 road games have all been wins and by a combined score of 122-41. The Nittany Lions only two losses this season are to the Buckeyes and the Wolverines. They are just not quite at the level of OSU or Michigan just yet but they are close. Michigan State is not and that is why this is a play for me even with the Nittany Lions a 22-point road favorite as of early game day morning. The Spartans are a mess with the in-season coaching change and player departures and player injuries. Yes they snuck by Indiana last week but they lost by a combined 87 to 3 to Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions are not far from the level of those two teams as I noted above. That said, the average margin of those two Michigan State defeats was 42 points and we only need to win this by about half that. Penn State is going for a New Year's Day bowl so they will still be focused here. With no concerns about a Big Ten Championship they can play loose and relaxed here and I expect their season-long trend of pounding the bad teams (especially away from home) to continue here with a win by at least a 4 TD margin! 10* PENN STATE (-) |
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11-24-23 | Seton Hall +1.5 v. Iowa | Top | 72-85 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Seton Hall (+) vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ 6 ET - Iowa might rate as a slightly better overall team and Seton Hall is only +1 or +1.5 as of about 5 hours before tipoff. However, the better defense belongs to the Pirates. Iowa certainly has some key seniors too but the overall rotation for Seton Hall is loaded with seniors. They are coming off their first loss off the season. Conversely the Hawkeyes have lost 2 of 3 games now. They are a very good team and score well but they are not good on the defensive end. That said, the defensive edges for the Pirates and the fact this is a veteran-laden team early in the season coming off their first loss has me siding with the small dog here. 10* SETON HALL (+) |
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11-24-23 | Dolphins v. Jets +9.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
NFL Friday 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) vs Miami Dolphins @ 3 ET - We are getting 9.5 points in this one as of early game day morning. Home field matters in this one. I know the Dolphins are off a home game they should have covered (but were done in by turnovers) and that the Jets have struggled badly on offense of late. However, this New York team at home already beat the Eagles and Bills here and 2 of their 3 losses were by 6 or less points. Now look at what the Dolphins have done away from Miami and also keep in mind that, though not too cold, it will be chilly and windy for this game in New York. Note that the Dolphins are just 2-3 SU in games played away from Miami and both victories were by 7 or less points. This is a divisional game and the Jets have a respectable defense that will be amped up for this one. I expect this one, like so many Jets home games this season, to be decided by a slim one-score margin. 10* NEW YORK JETS (+) |
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11-24-23 | Botosani v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -100 in Petrolul Ploiești vs FC Botosani @ 1:30 ET - FC Botosani has looked better since the managerial change and is coming off B2B draws that have totaled an average of 4 goals. Overall, 3 of their last 4 matches in league action have totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4.5 goals apiece. The goals should keep flying here as Petrolul Ploiești is off rare B2B scoreless draws and, after the international break, they can't wait to get back on the pitch and get back to playing well again. Knowing they are taking on the last place club in the league, look for them to be aggressive on the attack here. Their most recent home match was a 2-2 draw and that was preceded by a 3-1 road win for Petrolul Ploiești. Look for them to be strong here at home again but FC Botosani is playing their best football of the season now under a new manager and they are so hungry for that first win. That said, it is imminent and no one will want a share of the spoils here as the visitors off B2B draws and the hosts off 3 straight draws and these clubs had a 1-1 draw earlier this season. Strong push from both clubs here given the circumstances and the result should be at least a 2-1 final the way I see this one playing out. 10* OVER 2.5 -100 in Petrolul Ploiești |
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11-24-23 | Iowa v. Nebraska OVER 24.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Iowa Hawkeyes @ Noon ET - NO...your eyes are NOT deceiving you. The actual posted number on this FULL GAME total is down to 24.5 points as of about 7 hours before kickoff. This is the lowest posted total in CFB history! Of course it is because Iowa continues to trend under and their offense is lousy but they have a fantastic defense. Also, they are matched up with a Cornhuskers team that has also been playing great defense but struggles on offense. Nebraska has a solid ground attack but they struggle through the air. The key to this over play however is situational. The Huskers need a win to be bowl eligible. This is one of those games where Nebraska is going to have to get creative on offense and make some things happen. There will be some risk taking even if it involves some crazily designed running plays. But the fact is the Iowa defense may not be at its best here either. That's because this Hawkeyes team has already punched its ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. How can they be fully focused here when they know that is on deck and this game really does not mean much to them. Sure, Iowa still wants to win and I expect them to have some success on offense here and it won't take much to get this over the total. Keep in mind, if each team gets to just 12 points we can not lose this game because someone will score in OT. We just need 12-12. So now take a look and note that Nebraska has scored at least 14 points in 8 of last 10 games. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 15 points in 8 of 11 games this season. Yes this will be a tight game and not a lot of scoring but I can't foresee anything less than 27 points in this one. Look for at least a 14-13 type grinder here at the very least. The Hawkeyes may look a little different this week since their Big Ten Championship Game spot is locked up and Huskers are desperate and will push hard here. Will make for some interesting dynamics here because each team known for conservative play and defense but both are in a situation where you throw caution to the wind. They will each be willing to take risk here. 10* OVER the total in Nebraska |
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11-24-23 | CSMS Iasi v. Hermannstadt OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -102 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #206893: Romania Liga 1: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -100 in Hermannstadt vs Poli Iasi @ 10:30 AM ET - The first meeting between these clubs this season was a 3-1 final and, considering the way they are going right now, I am expecting more of the same here! Both clubs enter this one on long unbeaten streaks which, of course, builds confidence. Hermannstadt has not lost in 12 straight matches dating back to August. During this run there was one scoreless draw but the other 11 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. I know there is always a chance of a 1-1 draw burning us here but I believe the odds makers set this total at 2.5 with good reason and we'll see 3 or more goals here. Poli Iasi has not lost in 5 straight matches and they are off a 3-3 draw. Their most recent road match was a scoreless draw but Poli Iasi scored 2 goals in each of their last 3 road games prior to that! Their last 6 road matches, prior to that scoreless draw, averaged 3 goals apiece. Coming off the 3-3 draw at home, look for that high-scoring road trend to resume here given the situation. 10* OVER 2.5 -100 in Hermannstadt |
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11-23-23 | 49ers v. Seahawks UNDER 44 | Top | 31-13 | Push | 0 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers @ 8:20 ET - This total is in the 44 range as of early gameday morning and this is a big battle for 1st place in the NFC West division. The big story leading into this one has been the health of Seahawks QB Geno Smith and, now that he is expected to play, this total is even ticking up a bit. I feel we have huge value with the under in this one. The Seahawks are facing a very tough defense and the last thing that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll wants to do here is to get into a shootout with the Niners. San Francisco has the much better offense in this match-up. I know the Seattle defense has not been great but they are at home and this is a huge game and the defense is known for stepping at home in primetime key games like this through the years. I sense a raucous atmosphere for this one and the Seahawks to bring it with a huge effort on D here. The Niners have been better since the bye week and I love their defense but lets not forget that San Francisco had produced only 17 points in each of three games before the bye week. The Seahawks have scored an average of just 17.5 points last 6 games. I see some value in this total in the mid-40s. The 49ers have allowed an average of only 14.8 points in their 5 road games this season. But I look for this to be a game management type of game from both sides. The Niners are on the road in a loud venue and want to lean on their defense and a strong ground game. The Seahawks also are likely to be conservative here as they face a top defense and also are well aware of the recent results from SF QB Purdy. Yes this is a playoff revenge game for the Seahawks but they will have their hands full. Look for a hard-fought game here and I am projecting a 21-14 final based on all of the above. That means we have some wiggle room for sure with this big total. 10* UNDER the total in Seattle |
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11-23-23 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State +10.5 | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Mississippi State Bulldogs (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 7:30 ET - Too many points. This line around 10 or 10.5 as of gameday morning. Yes, it was only Southern Miss whom they most recently faced but the Bulldogs got a couple key guys back and looked like a much better team and rolled to an easy win. They now will have a much tougher match-up with this Ole Miss team here. However, this is a rivalry game and Mississippi State is at home and the points are just too much. I am happy to challenge the Rebels to cover this double digit spread. The fact Ole Miss has a 9-2 SU record and Mississippi State is a horrible 3-8 ATS this season is keeping this rivalry game line higher than it should be. Other than one bad game their last 5, the Bulldogs allowed just 18.5 ppg in the other 4 games. The Rebels have faced some tough road match-ups this season but losses away to Georgia and Alabama and only getting by Auburn by 7 points means we have some value here with the big points. Ole Miss is not exactly sky-high with confidence on the road and they did lose to the Bulldogs last season. Also, the home team is on an 0-8 ATS run in this series but sometimes a simple trend like that gets over-played and over-valued. That seems to be the case here. Too many points and note that Ole Miss, despite two ATS wins this season, has still covered just 6 of the last 32 times they have been a road favorite of less than 16 points. Also, the Bulldogs have covered 4 of the last 5 meetings. I know the home team has that 0-8 ATS run but I am happy to put it to the test here...in contrarian fashion...home team it is! Grab the big points. 10* MISSISSIPPI STATE (+) |
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11-23-23 | Commanders +13.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Washington Commanders (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:30 ET - If you look at the two big home favorites on Thanksgiving Day, the Lions were at home last week too while the Cowboys were on the road. I am not involved with the early game today but, the point is, we are getting bigger points with this match-up when Dallas is definitely in the tougher scheduling situation in comparison with Detroit. The Cowboys were back east in Carolina last week, then traveled back for this Thursday game and they now have a tougher match-up on deck with the Seahawks next THURSDAY too! In fact the Cowboys have a very tough schedule remaining with Seattle, Philly, Buffalo, Detroit and Miami remaining. They have home and away games against the Commanders but the 5 match-ups in between are brutal. I believe Dallas could get caught looking ahead a bit here. Tough spot for Dallas to be such a large favorite. The Commanders are getting nearly two full touchdowns - early game day morning line is 13.5 - and this is a rivalry game. I feel we are getting some extra value here because everyone just saw Washington lose to the Giants but they had an insane 6-0 turnover deficit in that game. They'll clean things up here. Also there is a unique system edge here. The Commanders are a perfect 8-0 ATS when they are coming off an ATS loss by a double digit margin and they are facing a divisional opponent that has revenge against them and is entering the contest off B2B SU wins! The Cowboys lost regular season finale at Washington last year and enter this game on a winning streak so the system fits perfectly after Commanders got blasted last week in a fluke final against the Giants that was turnover-driven. 10* WASHINGTON + points |
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11-23-23 | The Strongest v. Vaca Diez OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
Rotation #208621: Bolivian Liga Profesional: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -125 in Vaca Diez vs The Strongest @ 2 ET - The last meeting between these clubs totaled 5 goals. The Strongest is, fitting enough, at the top of the table right now and coming off an 8-0 victory. Their last 3 matches have all totaled at least 3 goals. Vaca Diez has seen each of its last 4 matches total at least 3 goals. Solid value with this one at 3 goals. Vaca Diez will want revenge from the last meeting and should make the net ripple at least once here but, of course, the top club in the league is favored with good reason here. The Strongest should continue their strong season and score multiple goals here. That means this one gets over the number. 10* OVER 3 -125 in Vaca Diez |
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11-23-23 | Royal Pari v. Always Ready OVER 3.25 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -59 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #208625: Bolivian Liga Profesional: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 +105 in Always Ready vs Royal Pari @ 2 ET - This is one of those betting situations where "some knows something" as the saying goes. Royal Pari is favored heavily for a reason and I am expecting a 3-1 type battle here but this total would seem high to the casual observer. Note that Always Ready has rarely had a match top 3 goals this season. Royal Pari falls into the same category. So, how can this total be 3.5? Well, Always Ready is at home and angry off a scoreless draw. They should be relentless on the attack here and they scored 5 goals in the 2 matches prior to the scoreless draw and one of those was a 3-2 thriller. Royal Pari has the lesser record this season but they have scored 2 goals in 3 straight matches. Their scoring is up but the hosts are heavily favored for a reason. In other words, this one should get to 4 or more goals. Don't let the line scare you away. 10* OVER 3.5 +105 in Always Ready |
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11-22-23 | Golden Knights v. Stars -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday DALLAS STARS -135 - I had Dallas when they lost at Vegas earlier this season. It is a game they never should have lost. Also, the Stars have playoff revenge from last season. Right now Dallas is the hot team and the Golden Knights have gone cold of late. This is a great spot to lay a reasonable price on a revenge-minded team primed for a blowout win on home ice! |
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11-22-23 | 76ers v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday 10* Top Play Minnesota Timberwolves (-) vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8:10 ET - Current line is in the -4.5 range and I expect a solid home win. Philly had 4 guys score in double digits in last night's OT loss at home to Cleveland. Those 4 players were also the big 4 in terms of minutes played last night as they all topped 40 minutes! This is a really tough spot here for Philly as they are in a B2B while Minny has some rest and the Timberwolves have been playing so well this season. Also, the Sixers have now lost 3 of 5 and certainly are not as a strong of a team as they were early this season before Oubre got hurt. Yes they are still a top team but now short-handed already plus playing the 2nd night of a B2B and the Wolves are 6-0 at home this season and most have been blowout wins and the one that wasn't was still a 5-pt win in OT here. I look for the Timberwolves to take advantage of the situation and roll the Sixers here. 10* MINNESOTA (-) |
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11-22-23 | Flyers +127 v. Islanders | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
PHILADELPHIA +125/+130 - The Flyers have won 5 straight games. It is not a fluke. As I predicted at the start of the season, the front office changes Philly has made would pay dividends and the club atmosphere is now different than the past for sure. As for the Islanders, they are off a win but this followed losses in 7 straight games and losses in 11 of 14 games. This is a divisional rivalry with some past playoff history too and these teams just do not like each other. The fact the motivated road team that is playing the better hockey right now is a solid dog makes this a must play the way I see it. Philly also will have Hart in goal and he has been much better this season than Sorokin has for the Isles! Road upset win here! |
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11-22-23 | Rangers +107 v. Penguins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 107 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
NEW YORK RANGERS +107 - The Rangers just had their first regulation loss in their last DOZEN games! This New York team is a perfect 3-0 this season when off a loss. Quick will likely be in goal since Shesterkin was in goal in Monday's loss at Dallas. The Rangers blew a 2-0 lead in that game and did lead it 2-1 entering the 3rd period. They gave up 6 goals (2 empty netters) after they had scored the first two goals of the game. That is the kind of a loss that will get a team immediately focused and they can not wait to take the ice tonight. I know the Pens are still a quality team but I don't trust Jarry against elite teams and the Pens goalie is facing an angry Blueshirts club tonight that should pepper him with plenty of shots on goal. I like great teams off a loss when they had been playing well just prior to that loss. The Rangers fit the bill in that regard. Grab the small dog on the road on the money line here! |
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11-22-23 | Ole Miss v. Temple OVER 137 | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #677: CBB Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Temple Owls vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 3:30 ET - This total is in the 137 range as of early gameday morning. Based on the tempo with which these teams play as well as the situation here, I fully expect 140s as an end result. Temple is coming off a 78-73 loss to Columbia after starting the season a perfect 3-0. The Owls had an off shooting performance but played with plenty of tempo and they are now averaging 75 points per game this season. Yes, Ole Miss is an SEC team and they have started this season 4-0 but they are coming off a down season and of course the power of SEC basketball is nothing like it has been in SEC football on the national landscape. Of course that is why the spread is a very small one with Rebels a light road favorite here. Look for this one to be tight late too which helps lead to late fouling, quick three point shots and "scramble points" if you will. I am expecting a back and forth battle played at a good tempo as Ole Miss is averaging 71 points per game this season but also has allowed upper 60s in each of last two games. This will be a tough test facing the Owls in Philly with Temple coming off a loss. The Owls have plenty of scorers and I expect a much better scoring performance here after the horrific shooting against Columbia. Keep in mind, the Owls still scored 73 points despite that tough shooting. Here they will force the tempo and note that Ole Miss has shown they are willing to play fast too. 10* OVER the total in Temple |
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11-22-23 | Villarreal v. Zamora OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -124 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Rotation #202201: Spanish Copa del Rey, Second Round: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Zamora vs Villarreal @ 3 ET - Two years ago when these clubs met in Spanish Copa del Rey action the match totaled 5 goals. Look for another high-scoring one here. Zamora is hosting and that will help their cause as they face a higher-tier club from Spanish La Liga. Villarreal has seen each of its last 5 matches total at least 3 goals and those matches averaged 4.4 goals apiece. They are going to be very tough on the lower-tier club Zamora but the fact this match is at Zamora will certainly help the hosts. Look for them to get on the board but be unable to slow down a Villarreal club that scored 5 goals in their most recent Spanish Copa del Rey action earlier this month. Zamora won their first match on penalty kicks after it finished 2-2 in regulation. Their last 5 matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and those 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. 10* OVER 3 +105 in Zamora |
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11-22-23 | Oldham Athletic v. Barnet OVER 3 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #226141: English National League: Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -105 in Barnet vs Oldham Athletic @ 3 ET - This one sets up very well because Oldham Athletic has been a different club and playing with confidence since the managerial change in mid-October. They will put up a fight here on the road and should make the net ripple. However, Barnet is one of the top clubs in this league plus they are at home for this one. They are a solid favorite with good reason here. This is a revenge match too because Barnet lost the last meeting 3-1 and they were at home for that one too! Oldham has scored 4 goals in last 3 matches in league action. Barnet has conceded 6 times in last two league matches and is anxious to respond here on their home pitch. Oldham has conceded about 2 goals per match on the road this season but they are averaging scoring 1.5 goals per match on the season. Barnet is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season but conceding 1.5 goals per match. This one should get to 4 or more goals as Oldham will push the hosts in this one but Barnet favored with good reason and hard-fought battle ending 2-2 or 3-2 appears to be in the cards here! 10* OVER 3 -105 in Barnet |
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11-21-23 | Eastern Michigan +5.5 v. Buffalo | Top | 24-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
CFB Tuesday 10* Top Play Eastern Michigan Eagles (+) @ Buffalo Bulls @ 7:30 ET - The Bulls started having weekday games on Halloween and then through this month of November. Not only did they lose all 3 SU they also lost all 3 ATS! But now we are not just talking about a short-term streak either. This brings the run for Buffalo to 0-9 ATS in their last 9 weekday games! Indeed, the Bulls are better served to stick to Saturday CFB but, of course, they have no say in the matter as it pertains to their season finale here on Tuesday. That said, I love the points here with Eastern Michigan. The Eagles need one more win for a .500 season and to secure bowl eligibility. Yes the teams they have beaten in the MAC are having tough seasons but the same holds true for Buffalo. Eastern Michigan is 3-2 SU this season against MAC teams that currently have a losing record in conference games on the season. One of those two losses was by just 3 points and here we are getting 5.5 points with the Eagles! Rallying for the win against Akron last week as they prevailed in double-OT, the Eagles have some extra confidence heading into this one. Eastern Michigan is 9-2 ATS in weekday road games when they are an underdog and I expect the Eagles, even if they fall short of the SU win, to get at least the ATS cover. This one in a 9-0 ATS play-against Buffalo situation as noted above and I look for the trend to reach 10 in a row ATS here! This is also a revenge game for the Eagles as they allowed 50 points in a home loss to Buffalo last season. They have not forgotten! It is the only time since 2016 that the Eagles have allowed 50 or more points in a regular season game. Payback here! 10* EASTERN MICHIGAN (+) points |
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11-21-23 | Cavs v. 76ers -7.5 | Top | 122-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
NBA 10* Top Play Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:30 ET - This line is in the 7.5 range as of early gameday morning. The Cavaliers are a solid team that has won 3 straight games so this line makes sense. However, Cleveland is going to again be without leading scorer Donovan Mitchell here. Also, the Cavaliers could be without Caris LeVert again. If he does play, LeVert (knee) will not be 100% most likely and, keep in mind, he is also one of the Cavs top scorers. This the Sixers only home game in about a 2-week stretch so they want to make it count! Philly has been so strong and they were encouraged by having Oubre back at practice yesterday. His return is likely still weeks away but the team chemistry in Philly right now is as high as it has been in years so they definitely were also encouraged by having him back at practice Monday! The Sixers are 10-2 last dozen games and 8 of last 9 wins by at least 8 points! In fact, the average margin of victory in Philly's wins this season is 13.4 ppg so I do not expect the spread to be an issue here. 4 of the Cavs last 5 losses by at least 8 points and the Sixers are so strong and confident so far this season and this is particularly true at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-21-23 | La Salle v. Duke OVER 144 | Top | 66-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 143.5 or 144 in La Salle Explorers at Duke Blue Devils @ 7 ET - Duke just crushed another PA team (Bucknell) 90 to 60. Now the Blue Devils face a Philly team, La Salle, that recently beat that same Bucknell team. The point is that if Bucknell can shoot only 37% from the field and still put up 60 points on Duke, than you know that La Salle should be able to top that! The fact is the Explorers are 4-0 this season but, of course, a heavy dog to Duke with good reason. La Salle will not be able to slow down a Blue Devils team that is piling up big point totals this season under new head coach Jon Scheyer but, at the same time, the Explorers enter this game with some added confidence on the offensive end. When you start a season 4-0 and averaging 73.5 ppg you'll have some confidence. The fact is they should get into the 65 range here given all of the above but then note that Duke is favored by around 27 points for a reason. That is why I am projecting a 90 to 65 type game here that puts us double digits in front of this total so we'll take it! 10* OVER 143.5 or 144 in Duke |
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11-21-23 | Armenia v. Croatia OVER 3 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
Rotation #235805: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -115 in Croatia vs Armenia @ 2:45 ET - Croatia holds the tiebreaker edge over Wales but that still means they need to win here to be safe. I look for another strong effort here from Croatia as a result but also note that Armenia is going to put pressure and would love nothing more than to play spoiler here! Armenia has scored at least 1 goal in 10 of last 14 matches across all competitions. But, of course, Croatia is a heavy favorite here with good reason. Armenia has allowed 2 goals per match on average in those same 14 matches. The reverse fixture was only a 1-0 win for Croatia but now they are at home and they should finally erupt for goals here. I know they took the foot off the gas after getting up on Lativa 2-0 early in that one but now they face more of a challenge and I expect that to result in much more scoring throughout in this one. Armenia will be able to play a loose and relaxed style. 10* OVER 3 -115 in Croatia |
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11-21-23 | Turkey v. Wales OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #235825: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -105 in Wales vs Turkey @ 2:45 ET - Wales needs to win and hope the Croatia comes up short today as well. That said, the hosts are very motivated here. However, they also are facing an opponent that is playing well right now and loaded with confidence. Turkey just knocked off Germany and, though that was a friendly match, they are feeling very confident in their attacking abilities right now. Turkey enters this one having won the reverse fixture 2-0 and also having scored at least 2 goals in 17 of last 22 matches across all competitions. Wales needs a win however and has scored an average of 2.3 goals last 4 matches across all competitions. This one has the makings of a solid 2-1 final. Wales has to go hard for the full 3 points but this Turkey club is loaded with attacking options. 10* OVER 2.5 -105 in Wales |
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11-20-23 | Sharks v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
NHL Monday 10* Top Play OVER 6.5 in Vancouver Canucks vs San Jose Sharks @ 10:05 ET - The Sharks will be out for revenge here. I do not expect them to get it as they are heavy road underdogs for a reason here. However, I do expect the Sharks to put up quite the fight and the result should be a high-scoring game here. San Jose lost at home to the Canucks by a 10-1 count when these teams met a few weeks ago. That was when the Sharks were reaching the low point of their winless start to this season and ended up allowing 10 goals in B2B games. Since then they have actually gone 3-3 in their last 6 games. However, they are still 0-7 on the road this season but I like the fact they scored 5 goals in their most recent game, a home win, and they can carry some momentum on the road here! Look for an aggressive game from the Sharks which will push the Canucks to be their best at home. Vancouver has lost B2B games so they need to bounce back here. The Canucks have not lost 3 straight games yet this season and so you have two teams coming in ready to push hard for a win tonight and the goals should be flying. The Sharks have so often struggled to stop quality opposition this season and, at the same time, Canucks have looked vulnerable in recent games so San Jose will score their fair share in this revenge games as well. 10* OVER 6.5 in Vancouver |
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11-20-23 | Eagles +2.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) @ Kansas City Chiefs @ 8:15 ET - This line is currently +3 in some spots as of early game day morning and we will jump on that as I am not sure it will last. There is a lot of +2.5 out there as well. The line is actually a key to my play here. In fact, this will not be the normal write-up you typically see from me. I am sure all of you know plenty about the Eagles and Chiefs and the current situation with each. I am going to talk to you purely about the betting angle with this one as that is the key. How in the world are the Chiefs favored by just 2.5 or 3 points against a team that everyone - save for people from Philly, maybe - would say is better than the Eagles? This is not a neutral site game like the Super Bowl was! This is a night game at Arrowhead and this line is basically telling you that the Eagles are at least as good if not better than the Chiefs. But the betting markets have a general idea of the knowledge that Philly, in between these two most recent years of going to the Super Bowl, had a combined regular season record of 31-33-1 in the 4 seasons from 2018 to 2021. How in the world is this line a -2.5 or -3 for KC when the Chiefs have gone 50-15 over those same 4 seasons? The point is both teams are off great seasons in 2022 and met in the Super Bowl just 9 months ago and both are having great seasons this year, but the Chiefs are the much more consistent team getting it done for many years! Kansas City, as you all know, just won the Super Bowl over this same team on a neutral field! So why is this revenge game for the Eagles priced this way? Someone knows something...and we do too! Based on this VERY interesting betting market for this one and my own interpretation of this match-up, I expect the Eagles will win outright but I am happy to grab the value of taking the points with the field goal available here. 10* PHILADELPHIA (+) points |
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11-20-23 | Heat -115 v. Bulls | Top | 118-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat -1.5 or money line -115/-120 @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:10 ET - Right now, as of early gameday morning, the dominant line on this one is -1.5 but some books even have -1.5 -112 for example which is why I most definitely would recommend the money line for those of you with access to it. The money line is in the -115/-120 range so this is one of those rare situations where a money line does make sense even in a spread sport. The fact is the Heat should bounce back here. They have a chance at right back revenge here as they just lost at Chicago and now get a second chance against the Bulls after blowing a 21-point lead against them. They even still led that game by 9 with under 7 minutes to go in the game but they went on to lose the game by 5. The Heat had won 7 straight games before that loss and the Bulls were 4-9 on the season before that win! Even still without Herro, this Miami team just has too much for the Bulls in this one given the situation. Nice chance at right back revenge for the stronger team and the Heat should roll. 10* MIAMI (-) |
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11-20-23 | St. Joe's v. Kentucky OVER 150.5 | Top | 88-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #821: CBB Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kentucky Wildcats vs St Joseph's Hawks @ 7 ET - This total in the 150.5 range as of early game day morning. St Joe's is coming off an ugly 57-54 loss in which they trailed all the way. Longtime followers know I love totals with bigger numbers when a team is coming off a game like that. This Hawks team has talent and is coming off an ugly, ugly game. That will bring out a solid scoring effort here after they were so "off" with their shooting in the defeat. However, now they face a Kentucky program that - as per usual - is one of the best in the country this season. The Wildcats will run all over this St Joe's team. Now look at the numbers here. UK is about a 16 point favorite. They have averaged 88 ppg so far this season. If the Cats hit 88 and win by 16 that puts St Joe's at 72. That puts this game at 160. I feel we have solid value with the over here because the emphasis for the Hawks will be better production on offense here but, at the same time, they will not be able to slow down this uber talented Wildcats team. With this game at Rupp Arena in Lexington, the Cats might again erupt for 100 like they just did in most recent game. 10* OVER the total in Kentucky |
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11-20-23 | Moldova v. Czech Republic OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Rotation #235937: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 -135 in Czech Republic vs Moldova @ 2:45 ET - This is a key battle as only 2 points separate these clubs in the table for their group. Moldova must go strong here for the full 3 points whereas the Czech Republic only need a draw. That said, I expect a rather wide-open affair here as Moldova can not afford to sit back. I could see them scoring early and then Czech Republic evening things up and then Moldova again having to be aggressive in seeking the decisive goal. At that point it either happens and they get the shocking upset or Czech Republic finishes them off with a 2-1 victory. Either way I see this match getting to 3 goals and will take advantage of the value here with this one posted at 2.5 goals. 10* OVER 2.5 -135 in Czech Republic |
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11-20-23 | England v. North Macedonia OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #235941: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Monday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -115 in North Macedonia vs England @ 2:45 ET - Even though England is in great shape there is still a little motivation here and also I feel they will be stronger here too after winning "only" 2-0 over Malta in most recent match. Keep in mind, England beat these guys 7-0 in the reverse fixture. This match is at North Macedonia however and perhaps these guys get one on the board. They will certainly play loose and relaxed and have actually scored multiple goals in 3 of last 4 matches across all competitions. So North Macedonia gets on the board here but England is a 2-goal favorite on the goal line with good reason. I am looking for a 3-1 type match here. 10* OVER 3 -115 in North Macedonia |
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11-19-23 | Dayton v. Houston OVER 127.5 | Top | 55-69 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Houston Cougars vs Dayton Flyers @ 8:30 ET in Charleston, SC - We get a low total in the 128 range to work with here because the Cougars are known for defense. However, they also had played some weaker scoring teams early this season and then Utah showed them what a stronger scoring team is capable of doing against them. That said, now Dayton faces Houston for the Championship game of this tourney. The Flyers are a solid scoring team too and, though tourney Championship games can be grinders, I do not think Dayton wants to allow this game to play out at that type of pace. The Cougars are a young team in terms of new faces and so this roster is still evolving a bit in terms of their style and the Flyers are going to force the issue here. This one will play out at a solid pace and we are not asking for much to get this into the 130s. Note that the Flyers are averaging 72 points per game but have allowed 73 ppg last 3 games. The Cougars offense has been solid scoring 77 ppg but they just allowed 66 points to the Utes at the other end. We should see 130s here. 10* OVER the total in Houston |
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11-19-23 | Vikings v. Broncos OVER 41 | Top | 20-21 | Push | 0 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings @ 8:20 ET - The Broncos have won 3 straight games and it is amazing what confidence can do for a team. So playing at home on Sunday Night Football I do expect another decent performance here and they'll move the ball on this Vikings team. With each win they notch on their belt this Broncos team is starting to believe they can get the job done and win the games with a decent ground game helping to open things up for the passing game to get going again. The Vikings will also move the ball well here as Dobbs has been a pleasant surprise at QB and Minnesota is also hot with 5 straight wins! So you have two teams squaring off here that are each growing with confidence week by week. I know we have seen a huge under trend in NFL primetime games this season but don't be surprised if Thursday's OVER in Baltimore is a sign of things to come. These trends have a way of reversing in the middle portion of the season and this total down around a 41 is just too low of a range in my opinion. Another thing you get with these season-long trends is an eventual overadjustment of the numbers. The Vikings are averaging 24.6 ppg in their 5-game winning streak. They also are, ironically, averaging 24.6 ppg in their 5 road games this season. Denver has scored at least 19 points in 7 of last 8 games and has averaged 22.3 points in their 3-game winning streak. This one gets into the 40s! 10* OVER the total in Denver |
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11-19-23 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers -146 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
NHL Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line -145/-155 vs Columbus Blue Jackets @ 5:37 ET - The Flyers beat the Blue Jackets at Columbus earlier this season in their season opener. Tortorella was head coach with Columbus in the past so this game always has a little extra special meaning in addition to the fact this is a divisional game. I know the Flyers are in a B2B and just beat the Golden Knights yesterday. However, Philly has won 4 straight games and we get a bargain line on home ice here against a bad Blue Jackets team. That's because Hart was in goal yesterday so the goalie today is likely to be Ersson for the Flyers. But he has actually been solid in recent outings so I expect him to come up with another strong start here if called upon. Overall, the Flyers have bounced back strong this season while the Blue Jackets continue to struggle. Note that Columbus has lost 8 straight and 12 of last 13! They also have only 1 road win this entire season. I look for the Blue Jackets to struggle again as the Flyers stay hot. 10* PHILADELPHIA money line |
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11-19-23 | Jets v. Bills -7.5 | Top | 6-32 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Buffalo Bills (-) vs New York Jets @ 4:25 ET - The dominant line on this one as of about 7 hours before kickoff is a 7.5 but I am not going to let the line being above 7 keep me away from this fantastic spot. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo and the Bills are also coming off their first true home loss (also lost in London, UK) as they fell short against the Broncos Monday. So they have revenge against the Jets from a season opening loss at New York plus they are angry off B2B losses including their first loss in Orchard Park this season. The Jets were a small favorite at Las Vegas and lost outright to the Raiders. Note that the Jets are a long-term 0-11 ATS when they are coming off a game against a non-divisional AFC opponent in which they were favored but lost outright. The Bills are off B2B losses for the first time this season and it has only happened 3 times the past 3 seasons. Each of those 3 times they won their next game by at least an 8 point margin every single time. I know Buffalo has disappointed this season but this is still the stronger team in comparison with the Jets and now they are coming off a home loss as well plus playing with revenge plus we are testing a a play-against angle with the Jets that is 11-0 the last 11. I like our chances for a dozen straight here as the Bills have a fire lit under them for this game! 10* BUFFALO (-) |
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11-19-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Nets | Top | 121-99 | Win | 100 | 3 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (-) vs Brooklyn Nets @ 3:10 ET - The Nets are just 3-4 last 7 games and a big key with that is 2 of their 3 wins came against teams that are now a combined 6-17 this season. Against tougher teams the Nets continue to lose and Brooklyn also hurting without leading scorer Cam Thomas. If you look at this Brooklyn roster you can see it is no wonder why they tend to struggle against top teams. Of course the Nets would like revenge for last season's playoff ouster at the hands of the Sixers but they don't have the roster to do it right now in my opinion. Also, keep in mind, Philly's only losses this season came against a strong Bucks team by 1 point in Milwaukee and they lost both ends of a B2B. But that B2B featured a front-end lookahead with a tough Celtics team the very next night. The point is, the way Philly is playing right now, even without Oubre a bit longer, they just do not lose to lower-tier teams. They will get the big win here in my opinion and we have a very manageable line to work with. 10* PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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11-19-23 | Iceland v. Portugal OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -140 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Rotation #235921: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -140 in Portugal vs Iceland @ 2:45 ET - Portugal is 9-0 and has been ultra impressive and will advance. Iceland can not advance. As a result, this should be a rather wide-open affair the way it plays out. Iceland is off a 4-2 loss but has the confidence of scoring 6 goals in last two matches. They should surprise and get on the board here and I look for at least a 3-1 win for Portugal. The first match was 1-0 but the rematch will play out much differently given the situation and the Portugal club still has many players wanting to prove themselves and that they want to be part of the roster that will go to Germany next summer. Given that, it means a very strong effort from them here and Iceland is simply outclassed in this match-up and that is why I expect the goals to be flying. Portugal wants to finish the campaign with a 10-0 mark and Iceland can play a wide-open style here in hopes of pulling off the shocker. They have nothing to lose. As a result, look for at least a 3-1 type match here. 10* OVER 3 -140 in Portugal |
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11-19-23 | Steelers v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 5 h 58 m | Show |
NFL Sunday 10* Top Play Cleveland Browns -1.5 / -2.5 / or money line -130 vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 1 ET - As you can see from the lines shown here, this one offers a number of options of how to play it as of about 5 hours before kickoff Sunday. What we know here is that the Browns will be without QB Watson and of course RB Chubb has been out since early this season. In fact, that was the first match-up with the Steelers in Pittsburgh. This will be revenge payback here. The Steelers are the worst 6-3 NFL team in recent memory. They have been OUTGAINED every single week this season yet they somehow have miraculously won 6 of 9 games. The nonsense stops here. I know the Browns are off the emotional last-second win over the Ravens last week but this game is huge too. Cleveland will not come out flat here as this game is just too important. They have still been strong on the ground this season even without Chubb. Also, the Browns have a solid rookie option at QB and at least his first start comes at home and against a weak defense. Yes, the Steelers statistically bad against the pass and the run. They also are bad statistically on offense. They have won games with "smoke and mirrors" a lot this season. But now we get line value with the stronger team on their home field and we get that line value because of Watson being out. The Browns are still the better team here and they have revenge on their minds after not only losing Chubb but also losing to the Steelers in that game earlier this season. Cleveland lost that game despite a huge yardage edge. This will be payback! 10* CLEVELAND (-) |
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11-19-23 | Estonia v. Sweden OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #235909: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +105 in Sweden vs Estonia @ Noon ET - Sweden won the most recent meeting 5-0 but their manager is stepping down after this finale. That is why, even though Sweden is unable to advance in this competition, they will come out strong here at home and look to give their manager a proper sending off! Estonia could be subjected to a blowout loss here and the goal line margin on this one is 2 goals. I am expecting a 3-1 type affair. Estonia can play a free-flowing match here as well as they have nothing to lose. That said, they do struggle to score goals but Sweden has allowed an average of 2 goals per match in their last 4 matches. Even if Estonia fails to score here another beatdown as a result would not be a shock and this one exceeds the number! 10* OVER 3 +105 in Sweden |
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11-19-23 | Bulgaria v. Serbia OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 110 | 3 h 15 m | Show |
Rotation #235901: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +110 in Serbia vs Bulgaria @ 9 AM ET - Bulgaria has nothing to play for here but pride but that will motivate them in a strong way against rival Serbia. In other words, the visitors will give a strong effort here just like they did in the 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture at Bulgaria. Now, with Serbia hosting and wanting to punch their ticket via a big win to advance to the next stage, I am expecting plenty of scoring here. Bulgaria has allowed 2 goals in each of last 4 matches. Serbia has allowed at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches. Off a 1-0 loss in a friendly with Belgium, Serbia will come out strong for this one and they had scored an average of 2 goals per match last 11 matches prior to the 1-0 loss in what was just a friendly. We should see at least 2-1 here but certainly expecting much more given all of the above. 10* OVER 3 +110 in Serbia |
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11-18-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Canucks -139 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -139 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
NHL Saturday 10* Top Play Vancouver Canucks -140 vs Seattle @ 10:07 ET - This is a great set-up as the Kraken are off a 4-3 win in the shootout but had lost 12 of 17 games this season prior to that win. Vancouver is off a loss but had won 10 of 12 games heading into that one. Also, the Canucks are a perfect 3-0 this season when off a loss in which they allowed 3 or more goals. The Kraken are 0-2 this season when entering a game off a home win! Seattle is known for struggling to score and Thatcher Demko should be back between the pipes after sitting out the Canucks most recent game, a loss. Demko has gone 8-3 this season with a low GAA sitting around 2 goals and he dominates again here. This is a value price for the Canucks considering the situation. 10* VANCOUVER -140 |
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11-18-23 | Kentucky v. South Carolina OVER 52 | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in South Carolina Gamecocks vs Kentucky Wildcats @ 7:30 ET - This is a great set-up for big points and this total at 52 should prove to be far too low! South Carolina is off a huge 47 to 6 win but that performance for the defense will absolutely prove to be an aberration. The Gamecocks entered that game having allowed 31 points per game this season! The offense has been looking strong with big performances at home all season long! South Carolina will continue to roll here on offense as the Wildcats defense certainly took a step back this season. The Cats had a recent huge performance in which they allowed only 3 points but in their other 4 games since early October they have allowed an average of 43 points per game! I know the UK offense struggled recently but you must consider the opposition they faced in the lower-scoring efforts. Kentucky has a solid ground game and a respectable QB, just like South Carolina, and here they are going up against a weaker defense which will allow them to get going again on offense here. This one should feature plenty of scoring given the recent struggles of both defenses. South Carolina scores so well at home and UK averaged 27 ppg on the road this season even though one of those games was at Georgia. This total is a bargain in a game in which I expect both teams to push into the 30s. The over is 6-1 in the Wildcats last 7 games and the over is 4-1 in the Gamecocks home games! The high-scoring trends continue here. 10* OVER the total in South Carolina |
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11-18-23 | Oklahoma State -6 v. Houston | Top | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma State Cowboys (-) vs Houston Cougars @ 4 ET - This line is a around a 6 or 6.5 and is offering excellent value on the Cowboys. Oklahoma State just got crushed by Central Florida. This was after their big game with Oklahoma. The Cowboys won that game over the Sooners and they historically struggle ATS after facing OU and particularly it makes sense for them to struggle when they have upset Oklahoma like they just did. Keep in mind, that was a 5th straight win for the Cowboys and they were hot. Now, after a very ugly loss to the Golden Knights, I feel certain that OSU is going to bounce back strong here. The Cowboys are the much stronger team on offense and I know their defense is going to come to play after that ugly loss to UCF. As for the Cougars, they have lost 6 of 9 games. Also, two of the only three wins that Houston has in that action was over two teams that now have a combined 5-15 record this season. The Cougars now are facing an angry OSU team that was 7-2 this season and 5-1 in Big 12 games before the embarrassing loss to UCF! I know we are laying points on the road here which is not my favorite thing to do but really there is a decided edge here with the Cowboys. They have been the stronger team all season long and definitely are the much better team on offense and the motivation factor is huge. The Cougars, by the way, just lost to a Cincinnati team that has been dreadful this season. The Bearcats were 0-6 in Big 12 and having a horrible season. Houston struggles again in this one and the Cowboys should roll by much more than a TD. 10* OKLAHOMA STATE (-) |
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11-18-23 | Kosovo v. Switzerland OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Rotation #235893: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 +110 in Switzerland vs Kosovo @ 2:45 ET - Switzerland has not been strong defensively or in goal in this competition and that is why they have underachieved. They are undefeated but have 4 draws among their 8 matches and have allowed 1.5 goals per match last 6 matches. Certainly they are still a potent club however and that is why I like the over in this match-up. I expect a Kosovo squad that comes into this one confident to be able to make the net ripple at least once but ultimately the Swiss should prevail and so I see a 2-1 final at a minimum here. Both clubs hungry for a win and will push hard for the victory and to avoid a draw. The result should be a rather aggressive approach and note that the first meeting was a 2-2 final. Overall, Switzerland is scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match in this competition. Kosovo enters with some confidence here after scoring 4 goals total in B2B wins including a win over Israel. Also, the 2-2 draw with the Swiss in the reverse fixture certainly helps with the confidence factor as well. As a result, look for plenty of scoring in this one. 10* OVER 3 +110 in Switzerland |
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11-18-23 | Croatia v. Latvia OVER 3 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -115 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #235877: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -115 in Latvia vs Croatia @ Noon ET - Croatia comes into this one angry and that is bad news for an outclassed Latvia squad. Croatia took the first meeting 5-0 and more of the same could be in store here! Croatia enters off B2B losses and they now actually need to win here! They will take advantage of facing a Latvia squad that has allowed 3.7 goals per match in its last 3 losses. Latvia did score 2 goals in most recent match at home and they might get another goal here but Croatia pulls away in a match I am envisioning will end at least 3-1. The goal line on this one is -2 in favor of the road squad with good reason. The over is the best value way to play this one the way I see it and Croatia wants to prove they can still get it done even as their roster of players includes guys getting a little long in the tooth. 10* OVER 3 -115 in Croatia |
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11-18-23 | Rutgers v. Penn State OVER 40 | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Noon ET - This total is around a 40 or 40.5 as of about 5 hours before kickoff. The Nittany Lions are off that loss to Michigan as they again lost to the Wolverines and Ohio State as they seemingly do every meeting. However, this one got the offensive coordinator fired. Now I am well aware that Rutgers has a solid defense but this Penn State team is angry, fully focused on a strong performance on offense in this one, and the weather looks good for this one in State College today. That said, the Nittany Lions will be relentless and aggressive on offense. They are 8-2 this season and lets talk about their average points in the 8 wins because, of course, as a 20 point favorite here PSU is expected to win this one as well. The Nittany Lions have averaged scoring 44 points per game in their 8 wins! As for Rutgers, they have a solid ground game on offense and they had averaged 25 ppg in their 3 games prior to the shutout loss against Iowa last week. Those 3 games included facing Ohio State by the way. That said, 44-25 is near the 20-point line on this game. Now, I am certainly not saying that is where this one ends up but you see the logic in arriving at that scoreline and even if shave double digits off each side of that, it puts this final at a reasonable 34-14 and that is more than a TD above the current total on this game. We have solid line value here the way I see it and I truly expect a relentless and dominant effort from the PSU offense here. 10* OVER the total in Penn State |
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11-18-23 | Wales v. Armenia OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Rotation #235869: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +115 in Armenia vs Wales @ 9 AM ET - Both clubs with plenty to play for here and I am looking for a 2-1 type battle as a result. Neither club interested in a sharing of the spoils here and Wales seeking revenge for the 4-2 loss to Armenia in June. Wales has scored an average of 2.7 goals in winning each of its last 3 matches across all competitions. Armenia has lost its last two matches across all competitions by a combined score of 5 to 1. Now they are back home though and should be stronger and confident here and ready to make up for a 1-0 loss to a tough Croatia club in their most recent match on their home pitch. The result is each club scores here and then no one settles for a 1-1 final and I am expecting a 2-1 type match here. 10* OVER 2.5 +115 in Armenia |
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11-17-23 | Colorado v. Washington State -4 | Top | 14-56 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Washington State Cougars (-) vs Colorado Buffaloes @ 10:30 ET - I know the Cougars have their annual rivalry game on deck with Washington but this week's game versus Colorado is the home finale for Washington State. Not only that, the Buffaloes need 2 more wins for bowl eligibility and you can bet (literally) that there is some extra motivation here for the Cougars to make sure flashy Deion Sanders and Company miss out on bowl season. No one in the Pac-12 liked all the attention showered upon the Buffaloes this season and that is a big part of the reason that Colorado is now 1-6 in conference games this season. Now, granted, the Cougars have also had a dreadful season but they can at least get some measure of satisfaction from this season with a win here. The Cougars also are 9-1 ATS when they are a home favorite by a single digit margin of points and hosting a team that is off at least two straight losses! That system fits the bill here with the Cougars a 4-point favorite in this one and the Buffaloes entering this one having lost 4 straight and also 6 of their last 7 since their "smoke screen" 3-0 start to the season. By the way, the Cougars are 3-0 ATS last 3 meetings with Colorado and also 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they have hosted the Buffaloes. A home finale loss for Colorado is how the Buffs enter this one after their disappointing OT loss last week. Now this is their first B2B road game situation with next week's season finale also on the road. Note that Buffaloes are on a 1-7 ATS run when they are playing the first of B2B road games. They could be flat here too after losing a crucial home game last week. Just like everyone else gunning for the Buffs this season, the Cougars will be highly motivated here despite their disappointing record and I expect a huge home finale win as they take each of the aforementioned perfect ATS runs to 4-0 apiece! 10* WASHINGTON STATE (-) points |
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11-17-23 | Panthers v. Ducks +160 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Friday 10* Top Play Anaheim Ducks Money Line +160 vs Florida Panthers @ 10:05 ET - Gibson should be back between the pipes here for the Ducks and he has been great. Dostal really struggled against the Avalanche but now Anaheim should bounce back off that ugly loss. With Gibson in the crease, the Ducks are 4-1 in his last 5 decisions. Also, he has a fantastic 2.19 ERA on the season including a sparkling 1.51 GAA this month. The Ducks were on an 8-2 run before losing their last game by, ironically, an 8-2 count! They are very undervalued here on home ice in my opinion. Florida is a solid team but the Panthers are 6-1 at home but have lost 5 of 9 on the road. This line is heavily shaded toward a club that also lost 22 of 41 road games last season as well. The Ducks are improving and solid on home ice and they show that again here. 10* Anaheim +160 |
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11-17-23 | Maryland v. Villanova -6 | Top | 40-57 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
CBB Friday 10* Top Play Villanova Wildcats (-) vs Maryland Terrapins @ 8:30 ET - The Wildcats are in a great bounce back spot after that embarrassing loss to Penn. They had won their first two games this season and can't wait to get back on the floor after the loss to the Quakers. As for the Terrapins, they are off B2B losses. They have not looked good early this season and now they face an angry team that was ranked heading into that loss to Pennsylvania. The Cats had a huge edge in shots from the field in that game but had an ugly performance. They will bounce back big here on their home floor and take this one by double digits the way I see it and this line is currently in the -6 range. 10* Villanova (-) |
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11-17-23 | 76ers +100 v. Hawks | Top | 126-116 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers Pick'em @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:40 ET - The 76ers are off B2B losses. The last 10 times, including post-season, that the Sixers have entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games, they have won the next game 8 of 10 times! They will bounce back big here after losing a tight one to Indiana and then struggling versus the Celtics in a 10-point loss. The Hawks are not the Celtics! Philly should bounce back here against an Atlanta team that is 6-5 this season but whose last 4 wins are against teams that are a combined 15-30 this season. The Hawks were in the post-season last year but lost in the first round to Boston and that included losing their last two home games of that series. They enter this one having lost each of their last two home games as well. More of the same here as Embiid should play again even though listed as questionable. Keep in mind that game against the Celtics was 2nd of a B2B and he played. Now, with some rest, he should be even stronger here. 10* PHILADELPHIA pick'em |
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11-17-23 | North Macedonia v. Italy OVER 3 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
Rotation #235861: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -105 in Italy vs North Macedonia @ 2:45 ET - These clubs have a history of lower-scoring meetings but this one sets up well for plenty of goals. For one thing, this match is important to Italy and they are looking for payback after a 1-1 draw and surprising 1-0 loss in the two most recent meetings! North Macedonia's fate is sealed in this competition so they can play a very aggressive style here as their is no fear of losing. A loss does not cost the visitors so they may as well "go for it" in this one. That said, there should be plenty of scoring. North Macedonia matches, other than the 1-1 draw with Italy, have averaged 4 goals apiece in this competition. Italy matches are averaging 3 goals apiece and here they want to be very aggressive and make sure they exact revenge. Italy's last 4 matches across all competitions, not including the one with North Macedonia, have averaged 4 goals apiece. Given these numbers AND the key elements of this situation, you can see why I am expecting this one to get to the 4-goal mark at least. We also have the added value that this total is a 3 should this one fall just short of 4 goals. Look for both clubs to be very aggressive here however and that will keep that from happening! 10* OVER 3 -105 in Italy |
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11-17-23 | Albania v. Moldova OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #235849: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2 -115 in Moldova vs Albania @ Noon ET - Albania has been great in this competition thus far but Moldova has been a pleasant surprise plus has a key striker back for this one. Also, Moldova has been very strong at home and they are hosting Albania in this one. Albania just needs 1 point here so a draw is okay for them. However, to have a realistic chance, Moldova is in need of a win here. So you have hosts that will be aggressive and go all out as they must score here and they are a confident group here. Albania would then need to answer Moldova. So, even though I certainly do not want to settle for a push with our bet here, there is certainly the added security in that a 1-1 final gets us just that. I just can not see this match ending with anything less than 2 goals but fully expecting 3 goals here based on the situation. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one. 10* OVER 2 -115 in Moldova |
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11-17-23 | San Marino v. Kazakhstan OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #235841: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Friday 10* Top Play OVER 3.5 -105 in Kazakhstan vs San Marino @ 10 AM ET - Goal difference could still be a factor in terms of the chances that Kazakhstan has to advance. That said, they are heavy favorites with good reason here and I fully expect them to run up the score. San Marino finally scored a goal in Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage action but they are really overmatched here. Kazakhstan is favored by 3 goals here on the goal line for a reason! Even if San Marino fails to score here look for the hosts to score at least 4 goals without reply. On their home pitch and given the situation of goal margin being a factor, the hosts will be relentless on the attack here. 10* OVER 3.5 -105 in Kazakhstan |
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11-16-23 | Canucks v. Flames -136 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Calgary Flames -135 vs Vancouver Canucks @ 9:07 ET - Tough back to back spot for the Canucks and they had to rally from two goals down for a hard-fought win in OT last night. Now Vancouver will likely go with back-up goalie Casey DeSmith in the B2B while the Flames have Jacob Markstrom back from injury and he was strong in his first start back and is now off B2B strong starts. He will prove to be a difference-maker again in this one. Calgary is on home ice plus has the situational advantage here. The Flames have had a tough time early this season but 10 of their last 14 games have been away from home ice. Their schedule has been tough and, with Markstrom back again, and more home ice action on the horizon, the Flames will build off winning 3 of last 5 and earning points in 4 of those 5 games! They are feeling better now than they were early in the season and they catch Canucks off that OT battle last night. Great spot for Flames. Lay it! 10* CALGARY |
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11-16-23 | Bengals v. Ravens OVER 46 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals @ 8:15 ET - Current total in the 46 range as of early morning Thursday. The weather will be perfect in Baltimore for this one. Also, the Bengals are facing an angry Ravens team off a home loss in which they blew the game against the Browns. Note that Cincinnati games are 13-3 to the over in divisional action when the divisional foe they are facing is off a home loss. Also, Bengals divisional road games are 10-2 to the over when the divisional foe they are facing is coming off a home game. In terms of current statistical edges here, I like the fact that Baltimore has averaged scoring 31 points in last 5 games. Also, the Ravens have allowed more than 30 points twice in last three games. The Bengals also off a high-scoring loss and have scored 27 points per game in last 5 games. We should see plenty of points here as Cincinnati is allowing an average of 22 points in their road games this season and they gave up huge yardage in the loss to the Texans last week. The Ravens pile up rushing yardage and the Bengals defense is bad overall including against the run. Cincinnati can score well here however as their passing attack has been piling up yardage under Burrow on a consistent basis for many weeks now. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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11-16-23 | Nets +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 115-122 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Thursday 10* Top Play Brooklyn Nets (+) @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - The current line on this one is around a 3.5 and the Heat are still without Tyler Herro. The game he got hurt in was a game that he only played 8 minutes in. So including that game, Miami has won 4 straight games without him. However, the key here is that 3 of those teams were really bad and are struggling overall this season. In fact, the combined record of all 4 teams is 14-29. Now the Heat face a red hot Nets team that already beat the Heat at Miami this season and that was when Herro was the leading scorer for Miami with 30 points and now he is not even playing tonight. I understand the Heat being favored here as they are at home and have won 6 straight. However, Brooklyn has won 6 of 9 and the only 3 losses were to Boston (twice) and Milwaukee. Of course the Celtics and Bucks are two of the best teams in the league. The Heat, without Herro, are not at that level. The road team gets it done here. 10* BROOKLYN + points |
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11-16-23 | Boston College v. Pittsburgh -3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
CFB Thursday 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Panthers (-) vs Boston College Eagles @ 7 ET - Current line is a -3 as of early gameday morning. The last 3 times that the Panthers were at home and on a losing streak of 3 or more games and facing an unranked foe, they have gone a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS! Also, that streak does not include - Louisville was a ranked opponent - their big home win earlier this season when they snapped a 4-game losing streak by winning big over the Cardinals at home here in Pittsburgh. You can tell by this line that there is more than meets the eye with this match-up. The 6-4 Eagles are a 3-point dog against a 2-8 Panthers team...how can that be? Exactly! Do not let the line fool you. The Panthers were done in by turnovers last week against Syracuse at Yankee Stadium but now they are back home where they have been solid in recent games and I am looking for a very strong effort from them in what is their last home game of the season. The Panthers will make it count and they will get revenge for losing the most recent meeting with Boston College by a single point in 2020. Under Pat Narduzzi, that is the only season in the past 5 that the Panthers did not play in a bowl game and now this season is the same but they can at least finish the home portion of their season schedule with a big weeknight win and make the most of this primetime opportunity with the spotlight in College Football only on Pittsburgh tonight as this is the lone game going in CFB. With the Panthers entering this one on a 4-game losing streak, look for the aforementioned "back to winning at home" streak to reach a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS! 10* Pittsburgh - points |
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11-16-23 | Houston v. Towson OVER 124 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
CBB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Towson Tigers vs Houston Cougars @ 6:30 ET in Charleston, SC - This total is as low as a 124 as of mid-day. The Cougars have averaged 82 ppg so far this season. Why would they score less than 80 here? They are one of the top teams in the country and can cause Towson all kinds of trouble in this one. Of course that is why they are favored by about 20 points in this one. But that puts this game at 80-60 range which is well above the 124 total. Even if we see 75-55 that gets the job done here. The fact is Towson is averaging 64 points so far. I know that, with much tougher competition here, they do not get to that range but at least mid-50s is reasonable and I am expecting a solid over here as a result. The fresh legs of the Cougars and depth of this team could easily get this one well into the 130s. 10* OVER the total in Towson |
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11-16-23 | Faroe Islands v. Norway OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -135 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
Rotation #236205: International Friendly: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 3 -135 in Norway vs Faroe Islands @ Noon ET - Norway won the last meeting between these clubs 4-0. They are favored by 2 goals on the goal line here with good reason. Faroe Islands just not have the roster to keep up with a much deeper and talented Norway club - even with the latter resting players. That said, there should be plenty of scoring here as Norway not happy about the 1-0 loss to Spain in most recent match. This followed 4 straight Norway wins in which they scored an average of 4 goals per match. With no pressure here due to this being a Friendly, don't be surprised if we see a wide open affair with plenty of scoring from the hosts. Faroe Islands might surprise and get on the board here in a 3-1 type match but, even if they do not, look for the hosts to put on quite the show in this one. 10* OVER 3 -135 in Norway |
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11-16-23 | Spain v. Cyprus OVER 4 | Top | 3-1 | Push | 0 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #235813: Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage: Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 4 +105 in Cyprus vs Spain @ Noon ET - This is another match with a much stronger club a heavy favorite and expected to win by a multi-goal margin. I like the over in this one as Spain is favored by 3 goals on the goal line and they just have too much talent for this over-matched Cyprus club. It does not even matter who is on the pitch either. Spain can rest players, etc. but they will still dominate. Cyprus matches have averaged 4 goals apiece last 7 and they are allowing 3.5 goals per match during this stretch. That has included competition that is not on the level of this Spain club as well. That said, I am expecting a 4-1 type beatdown here or even a 5-0 thrashing in favor of Spain. Remember Spain already beat Cyprus 6-0 and they have a recent 4-0 win over Georgia which is the same club that Cyprus just had a similar score-line with but Cyprus was on the wrong end of that 4-0 match. There is so much talent disparity between these clubs as you can see and another thrashing is likely. 10* OVER 4 +105 in Cyprus |
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11-15-23 | Rice v. Texas UNDER 157 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #702: CBB Wednesday UNDER the total in Texas Longhorns vs Rice Owls @ 9 ET - This total is just too high. It is because Rice put up some big points in their first two games but now the Owls face a Horns team that has held each of their first two opponents under 60 points. Note that the Owls are facing a Texas team that will be fully focused here since they have a Louisville team on deck that had a horrible season last year. That game is at Madison Square Garden too so UT does have a road trip on deck. Here at home they play a strong defensive game and they are about a 20 point favorite in this one. If they again hold another opponent in the 60 range, that puts this game in the 80-60 range and that means it falls well below the 157 that is the current number posted on this game. Last year's meeting was high-scoring but because of OT and that was after a 72-72 score in regulation and UT learned their lesson from letting the Owls hang around in that one. They will turn up the heat on defense in this one! UNDER the total in Texas |