Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins v. Raiders OVER 43.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Month - NFL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Las Vegas Raiders vs Miami Dolphins @ 4:05 ET - I know Brissett did not look good in relief of the injured Tagovailoa last week but he is a veteran QB fully capable of a bounce back here. Also, he goes from facing one of the best defenses in the league to facing one of the worst. Miami's numbers are poor on offense this season but they faced the Bills and Patriots and those two defenses have been very solid early this season. The Raiders, on the other hand, have a very questionable secondary but I do love their offense and expect plenty of success in this one for the Las Vegas offense at home. The key to the over is we have seen this total drop from the upper 40s to the low 40s and we have great value as a result. Las Vegas, at 2-0 and with a divisional game at the Chargers on deck, could make the mistake defensively of being a bit flat in this one. After all, they hung on for a dramatic OT win in week 1 over the Ravens and then went on the road and beat the Steelers. The set up is now ideal for the Dolphins to surprise and have a very good game on offense. However, I do not trust their defense against a Raiders offense that is very dangerous. As a result, plenty of points in this one and we have a great value with a low total that has been driven even lower in trading. 10* OVER 43.5 in Las Vegas |
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09-26-21 | Rangers v. Orioles -122 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Early Dominator - MLB Sunday 10* Top Play Baltimore Orioles -122 vs Texas Rangers @ 1:05 ET - I know it might seem tough to trust the Orioles but keep in mind we are fading the Rangers. That is the key and that is also why I am making this bet with action (pitchers NOT listed). Baltimore got the win yesterday and Texas is now 23-57 in road games this season. The Orioles are one of the better slugging teams in the majors when at home and I look for them to get the job done here in this one. Now I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, this play is action on the pitchers. Dane Dunning is 0-7 with a 6.80 ERA in his 11 road starts this season and the Rangers have lost 10 of those 11 games. The Orioles John Means has been back in top form for quite some time now! Means has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 5 straight starts and he has averaged 6 innings per start during this stretch. The home team rolls to a blowout win here. 10* BALTIMORE -122 |
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09-26-21 | Royals v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Kansas City Royals @ 12:10 ET - Both these starting pitchers have some good recent numbers and I know that each of these teams have been trending under of late. However, yesterday's game had 18 hits but only 6 runs and I have reason to believe these pitchers get rocked here. Peralta allowed 5 earned runs in less than 6 innings when he last started against the Royals two weeks ago. Bubic has a 1.79 WHIP in his 3 career starts against the Tigers so he is lucky his ERA against them is not even higher. Speaking of high ERA numbers, Bubic now starts at Detroit for the first time in his career and he has a 5.68 ERA on the road this season. Each of his last two road starts stayed under but this followed the over going 6-2 in Bubic's first 8 road starts this season. That type of trending resumes here. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-26-21 | Tottenham Hotspur v. Arsenal OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 105 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - EPL 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Arsenal vs Tottenham @ 11:30 AM ET - These two clubs have been two of the lowest scoring clubs in league action so far this season. In typical contrarian fashion that has me on the over here. The reason is because when these rivals match up you can often throw logic out the window. The fact is this should be a spirited and entertaining match-up and the health of Arsenal is now much better than it was earlier this season. We get a low posted total here because of the trending of these two clubs early this season but I am looking for nothing less than 2-1 final in this one and that would cash our ticket. 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs in league action have totaled 3 or more goals. More of the same here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Arsenal |
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09-25-21 | Oregon State v. USC -10.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 21 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play USC Trojans -10.5 - The Trojans lost their most recent home game to Stanford and it got their head coach fired. Still shell-shocked from that, USC traveled to Washington State and spotted the Cougars a 14-0 lead. Their response? Southern Cal, let by interim coach Donte Williams, rattled off 45 straight points in the huge 45-14 win! That was against the same Cougars team that won at Oregon State by double digits last season and that was the only win Washington State had in their shortened 4-game season. The point is that the Beavers are not a great football program. They have gotten a little better but still they particularly are lacking on defense and I expect USC to have a huge day on offense as they are rolling with confidence after how last week's game played out. The Trojans have won 23 straight games at Memorial Coliseum when hosting the Beavers. That said, of course we still must cover the spread here but I love the fact that the line has dropped from 13 to near 10 now and QB Kedon Slovis is back for the Trojans here and pronounced 100% ready to go after dealing with a neck injury. Southern Cal just has too much talent and too many weapons at the skill positions for Oregon State to be able to keep up in this one. Yes the Beavers are off to a 1-2 start but they lost their only challenging game (at Purdue) and the Trojans have played the tougher schedule. Also, USC is hell bent on making up for their embarrassing home loss in their last game here so I look for the Trojans to keep their foot on the gas throughout this game and win by at least a 3 TD margin! Lay the big points and look for a home blowout in this one. 10* USC -10.5 |
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09-25-21 | North Carolina v. Georgia Tech OVER 64.5 | Top | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 64.5 in Georgia Tech - Yellow Jackets off a low-scoring battle with Clemson but look for this one to be a "track meet" with facing North Carolina. The Tar Heels have scored 59 points each of the last weeks but also gave up over 550 passing yards and 39 points last week. Georgia Tech did throw for over 200 yards versus a stellar Clemson defense last week and I expect the Jackets to enjoy success through the air here. I also suspect that the Yellow Jackets will be forced to throw a lot in this one because they will be playing catch-up throughout this game. The Heels offense is a quick-strike group that is simply too good and too explosive and they won't be slowed down on the fast track at Mercedes Benz Stadium for this one. In years past the Jackets used to run a triple option attack and would be running a lot and also running clock as a result. This is a different team these days and I expect a shootout to be the ultimate result in this game. 10* OVER 64.5 in Georgia Tech |
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09-25-21 | Astros v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Oakland - The A's off a 14-2 win yesterday and the over is now a perfect 8-0 in meetings between these teams at Oakland this season. Overall the Astros have had only 2 unders last dozen games so no matter who is on the mound here I am playing the over in this game. Take action on pitchers if you can. I will mention the pitchers here but the hot bats should continue no matter what in this one. The Astros averaging 7 runs last dozen games. The Athletics averaging 5.5 runs last dozen games. Houston starter Valdez has had the over go 3-0 in his last 3 starts. His last one was a good one but he allowed 4 earned runs in each of his two starts preceding that one. Valdez also allowed 5 earned runs in his only start against Oakland this season. The A's Sean Manaea enters this start struggling with an 8.10 ERA in his last two starts. The Astros tee off on the lefty here as they are #1 in the AL in both batting average and on base percentage against lefties on the season. Look for the over to reach 9-0 on the season in games between these teams at the Coliseum. 10* OVER 8 runs in Oakland |
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09-25-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs +146 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
MLB Saturday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +145 - Cardinals 14-game winning streak has been amazing. It ends here. Cubs get payback after getting swept in yesterday's double-header. I do not care who pitches here. Taking the home team to get back into the win column. However, I will mention that Jon Lester got hammered by the Cubs here earlier this season at Wrigley Field in his lone start against them since leaving Chicago (when was he with Washington earlier this season). Also, the Cubs Adrian Sampson has been respectable in his 3 starts and this will be his first start against St Louis which certainly could be an edge for him against the Cardinals hitters. Contrarian play but this is the right spot for it as the St Louis winning streak reaching 14 means it tied a club record that stood for 86 years - since July of 1935. That is how improbable all this is and I look for it come to an end here and will grab the big home dog. 10* CHICAGO CUBS +145 |
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09-25-21 | Liverpool v. Brentford OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
EPL 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 in Brentford - On the surface this would look like an under. Brentford has conceded just twice in five matches while Liverpool has conceded only once in five matches. However, there is so much more than meets the eye here at first glance. Brentford has faced a rather easy set of fixtures thus far and this includes a number of clubs that are having major goal-scoring issues early this season. Now they host a Liverpool club that has scored 3 goals in each of its last 4 matches across all competitions. Prior to this 4-game stretch they scored only 1 but it was against Chelsea and is the only goal Chelsea has conceded this season! Also, they scored 2 against Burnley and that is a club that is known for playing tight, low-scoring defensive-minded matches. The point is we have a lot of value here with a low total of 2.5 when you consider the firepower the Liverpool attack has! Also, Brentford has averaged 2.6 goals per match its last 5 matches and should at least find the back of the net once as a host against Liverpool. Even if they do not, they are not going to be able to stop the Liverpool attack in my opinion and I am looking for the visitors to score at least 3 in this one as they will want to make a statement. Brentford only got elevated to the league this season and they have played an early season schedule filled with clubs that just are not scoring well. This has led to the strength of their defensive play being over-estimated. This total should be higher than 2.5 and I will not hesitate to step in and take advantage and go with my highest rated play here. 10* OVER 2.5 in Brentford |
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 9* TOP Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 - Revenge game for LSU on the one hand as the Bulldogs beat the Tigers in Louisiana last season. However, lets not forget what happened the year before than when Mississippi State was the host and lost by 23 points despite the first downs in the game being equal. The point is that the Bulldogs have been reminded of that home loss beatdown heading into this game and I feel we have the stronger team at home and in a great spot. Mississippi State is off a loss at Memphis that never should have happened as they outgained those Tigers by more than 200 yards! Now they get a chance to dominate these Tigers and I do feel LSU is a little over-valued right now. The Bulldogs have played the tougher early season schedule and the Tigers are of back to back wins but against Central Michigan and McNeese State. In the only tough game LSU has had they lost to UCLA by double digits. Simply put, this is not the LSU teams of old and they are facing an up and coming Mississippi State team that has impressed early this season and won't make the same mistakes this week at home which they made last week on the road. 9* MISSISSIPPI STATE +2.5 |
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09-24-21 | Montreal v. Toronto -135 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts -135 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Recommend laying the -135 price on the money line rather than the 2.5 points here. Feel it absolutely could prove worth the extra 25 cent price to do so. In terms of SU win this season, Montreal has just 2 and they were against a pair of teams that have a combined 3-9 record. Conversely, Toronto is 3-3 on the season and has a pair of wins against teams with a combined 10-4 record. The Argonauts also have not yet faced the worst team (Ottawa) in the league either. That said, I feel we have some solid line value here with the Argos at home and the Als being a bit over-rated at this point in the season. Toronto also hired long-time CFL veteran coach Chris Jones to be, essentially, their defensive coordinator. With him calling the plays now on defense, look for his presence to be felt immediately and the Argonauts respond well here. Yes I am aware of the QB situation for the home team here but Bethel-Thompson certainly use to being a starter so no issues there. 10* TORONTO -135 |
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09-24-21 | Rangers v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers @ 7:05 ET - I know the Rangers have a bad lineup and the Orioles, though decent, are not exactly juggernauts at the plate even when at home. However, no matter who pitches here I am expecting a slugfest tonight at Camden Yards. The Orioles bullpen on the season has been one of the worst in the league. The Rangers bullpen tends to struggle more on the road than at home. After yesterday's unusual 3-0 game, look for normalcy to return tonight and both teams swing the bats extremely well. The Orioles are expected to start Wells here and he is winless with an 8.65 ERA in his 3 starts this season. The Rangers are expected to start Howard here and he is winless with a 6.50 ERA as a starter this season plus has an ugly 8.53 ERA in his last 3 starts. Wells has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts so Texas should do some damage at the plate here. As for the Orioles, their slugging percentage in home games this season ranks 3rd in the AL behind the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That is impressive company to say the least and I expect the O's to have some solid success at the plate tonight. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-24-21 | Middle Tennessee State v. Charlotte OVER 56 | Top | 39-42 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 56 in Charlotte 49ers vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders @ 6:30 ET - The Blue Raiders benched QB Hockman last week and his back-up Cunningham and led MTSU to a pair of late touchdowns. Granted it was too little too late but with I look for Middle Tennessee (with Cunningham at QB) to build momentum on offense after wrapping up last week's game well. Hockman has quit football so Cunningham is the guy and MTSU has not been able to run the ball well at all this season. That means we should see plenty of passing in this game. The Blue Raiders defense has allowed 31 points per game on the road and as for the 49ers, their defense allowed 437 yards last week. Definitely Charlotte should have allowed more than 20 points last week and, keep in mind, they did allow 28 points in Week 1 this season. I look for the MTSU defense to continue to struggle but their offense, rejuvenated with Cunningham under center, will perform well and lead the way to a high-scoring game. 10* OVER 56 in Charlotte |
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09-24-21 | Cardinals v. Cubs +157 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Friday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +157 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:20 ET (Game 1 of double-header) - Tough spot for the red hot Cardinals. I know that St Louis has been on fire but they had to battle back at Milwaukee last night for a big win as they rallied from an early 5-0 hole in that one. Now they take on a Cubs team in an afternoon game because this is the first of two games at Wrigley Field today. Conversely the Cubs scheduling situation is a good one as they were off yesterday plus already at home from having faced the Twins in a 2-game set earlier this week. I do not care who pitches here as this is a situational play for me and I know the Cubs will bring their A game against the rival Cardinals. So though we are talking about action on the pitchers I will quickly touch on the expected starters. Happ is 4-5 with a 7.32 ERA in road starts this season and opponents have hit .319 against him away from home. Steele does not have good numbers on the season but he truly has been much better in the month of September outside of one bad start. In the other 3 starts this month Steele has allowed only 7 hits in 14 innings. Look for a big upset here in Game 1 no matter who is on the mound in this day game Friday. 10* CHICAGO CUBS Money Line +157 |
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09-23-21 | Panthers v. Texans +8 | Top | 24-9 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
NFL Thursday 10* Top Play Houston Texans +8 vs Carolina Panthers @ 8:20 ET - This is a typical contrarian play for me. Everyone will be high on the Panthers because they demolished the Saints last week. Everyone will be down on the Texans because they lost by double digits at Cleveland last week plus they lost their starting QB to injury. Give me Houston here! For one thing they are at home and they played very well in their first game of the season here. For another thing Carolina is on the road for the first time this season. Yes they have impressed so far this season but the Panthers faced a bad Jets team in week one and then caught the Saints off a big win over Green Bay. Lets not forget the Panthers lost 9 of last 11 games last season. Carolina also went 0-2 last season when off a win in which they allowed 13 points or less. Now here the Panthers are laying 8 points in that exact situation! Houston went only 2-4 in final 6 home games last season but 3 of the 4 losses were by 6 or less points. This means if you would have had Houston plus 8 in each of their last 7 regular season home games you would have gone 6-1 ATS. We have a lot of value here with the home dog and, keep in mind, their #2 QB played his college ball in the Pac-12. It is not as if this rookie QB, Davis Mills, has not faced some tough competition in his career. He'll be ready for the big stage here especially after getting some playing time last week and now this week he is at home for this start. Texans make this one helluva game and should cover the spread along the way. I look for this game to be decided by a one-score margin. 10* HOUSTON +8 |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State -7 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
CFB 10* Top Play Appalachian State Mountaineers -7 vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7:30 ET - Revenge game from last season as the Mountaineers lost 17-7 at Marshall despite having an edge in first downs in the game. Look for payback to be delivered here as Appalachian State has played the tougher early season schedule and also has been the stronger defense early this season. When the Mountaineers played East Carolina they dominated and the final score could have been even more dominant as the Pirates simply got some late meaningless scoring. That same East Carolina team just faced Marshall and the late scores were far from meaningless as the Pirates got the 42-38 upset win by rallying in the 4th quarter. The way each of these teams fared against East Carolina says a lot and I like the fact that Marshall just gave up 42 while the Mountaineers are allowing an average of only 19 points per game this season. Home team rolls here and wins this one by double digits. 10* APPALACHIAN STATE -7 |
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09-23-21 | Cardinals v. Brewers -117 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* Thursday Top Play Milwaukee Brewers Money Line -117 vs St Louis Cardinals @ 2:10 ET - The Cardinals have won 11 straight games. The Brewers are favored here. Big mistake by odds makers, right? No. Long-time followers know how I feel about that and I am expecting a huge home win here. Wainwright certainly has been solid for the Cardinals this season including when facing the Brewers. However, Houser has been dominant against St Louis this season with 0 earned runs allowed in 14 innings. Regardless of the pitching match-up here, I do not see the Brewers getting swept at home in a 4-game series. Milwaukee bounce backs here no matter who is on the mound. The Brewers have had a great season because they have avoided long losing streaks and have only had 2 go past 4 games. Odds are this losing streak ends this afternoon! 10* MILWAUKEE -117 |
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09-23-21 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 7 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
MLB Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) - Wind blowing out at a strong clip for this one. Civale rocked for 7 earned runs in 3 innings in most recent home start. Lopez rocked for 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start. The over is 6-3 in Civale home starts this season. 3 of 4 meetings between these teams at Cleveland this season have gone over the total. White Sox game on Tuesday had just 8 runs scored on 28 hits in a ridiculous under. Look for this one to make up for that as the pitching match-up is ideal. Plus, no matter the pitchers here, even though the temperature will be cool, the winds will help us in this one. The ball will carry well and Lopez gave up 2 homers in most recent start and Civale gave up 3 homers in last home start. 10* OVER 7 runs in Cleveland (Gm 1 of DH) |
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09-22-21 | Twins v. Cubs +105 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line +105 vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 ET - I know Joe Ryan has great numbers in his limited action so far. However, he did allow 3 earned runs in 5 innings when he faced the Cubs 3 weeks ago. Now Chicago sees him again at Wrigley Field where they are a tougher club than on the road for sure. The Cubs fell short 9-5 yesterday but have scored at least 4 runs in 9 straight games. Yes the Twins exploded for 9 runs yesterday but Minnesota had scored 3 or less runs in 5 of 8 games that preceded that rare outburst at the plate. Now they face Kyle Hendricks. I know he does not have the greatest of numbers overall but the fact is Hendricks is 14-6 as a starter this season and is known for coming up with some big starts at home. His most recent outing at home was a solid 6-inning effort versus a tough Giants team. The last time he started against the Twins he shut them out over 8 innings and dominated by allowing just 3 hits and striking out 10. That outing was last September and I look for him to come up with another strong effort here against this Minnesota team. I know Joe Ryan has pitched well so far but this is just his 4th MLB start. Look for the Cubs to do some damage here in their home park. Even with yesterday's win, the Twins still just 32-45 in road games this season and I am looking for Hendricks to improve his record to 15-6 on the season! 10* CHICAGO CUBS +105 |
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09-22-21 | Hamilton v. Ottawa +9 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
CFL Wednesday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +8.5 vs Hamilton @ 7:30 PM ET - Yes Ottawa has been a horrible team so far this season. Definitely the worst team in the league thus far. However, they have some big edges here as they are at home and playing with extra rest and they are catching Hamilton on the road and playing on short rest. Though the Tiger-Cats defeated the Stampeders last week at home, they actually were outgained in the game and were helped greatly by turnovers. The Ti-Cats are still down to their back-up QB and the Redblacks are going to make a game of this one in my strong opinion. Hamilton will get caught looking ahead to big game with Montreal coming up next week. 10* OTTAWA +8.5 |
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09-22-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8 runs in Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals @ 6:40 ET - The Marlins Elieser Hernandez is off a start in which he shut out the Pirates. However, he did not make it out of the 6th inning and he walked 5 in that start while striking out just 3. Hernandez was a bit fortunate to say the least and I feel he will not be so fortunate in this one! The Nationals are just 4-5 last 9 games but have scored 6 or more runs in 7 of last 10 games. Washington should get the job done again at the plate tonight and keep in mind they did a lot of damage against the Miami bullpen last night too. As for the Marlins lineup, look for much more success today in comparison with yesterday. The Marlins will take advantage of facing Josiah Gray in this one. The over is 3-0 in his last 3 start as Gray has a 10.80 ERA during this stretch and allowed at least 5 earned runs in each outing! The over is 5-1-1 in Marlins last 7 games and they have scored 6 or more runs in each of their last two games against a right-handed starter. 10* OVER 8 in Miami |
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09-21-21 | Mets v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Boston @ 7:10 ET - The Red Sox start Eduardo Rodriguez in this one. The right-hander is off a strong road start but got hammered in his prior start which was at home. This comes as no surprise as Rodriguez has struggled at Fenway Park consistently this season. Rodriguez has a 6.32 ERA at home this season. Marcus Stroman gets the start for the Mets in this one. Certainly Stroman has pitched well but he is facing a big test here at Fenway Park. Boston has the #1 batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in the American League in home games this season. The Mets generally don't fare as well at the plate but facing Rodriguez certainly should help in that regard. New York is coming off a rough homestand but has scored 6 or more runs in 5 of last 9 road games. The Red Sox have been red hot at home and have won 14 of 20 games there and averaged 7.8 runs scored per game during this stretch. This is why, regardless of the pitching match-up in this one (make this wager with ACTION on the pitchers if you can), I do like the over. The trending at Fenway Park has been big for overs. 11 of the last 14 games in Boston have totaled 11 or more runs and we just need 10 to cash our ticket in this one. We have strong odds on that in my opinion. 10* OVER 9.5 in Boston |
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09-21-21 | Royals v. Indians -138 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Cleveland Indians Money Line -140 @ 6:10 ET - ACTION on pitchers. Will touch on the pitching match-up here but the team edges are the key for me with this play. Indians better at home than Royals are on the road. Also, Cleveland is 47-28 against teams with losing record this season. Royals only 34-38 against teams with a losing record this season. Kansas City is 10 games below .500 in road games this season. In terms of the pitching match-up Daniel Lynch has a 9.28 ERA last 3 starts and Cal Quantrill is 4-0 with a 2.35 ERA in his dozen home starts this season. Royals are 43-60 against right-handed starters this season. 10* CLEVELAND -140 |
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09-20-21 | Lions +12 v. Packers | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 10 m | Show |
NFL Monday 10* Top Play Detroit Lions +12 - I know that the Packers are generally strong at home and should bounce back here. But for Green Bay to respond and win this game by double digits is what I am doubting. The Packers have some issues. I am not sure how cohesive this group is ever since the Aaron Rodgers off-season saga. This team just looks a bit disjointed. Undoubtedly, talent-wise Green Bay is the better team in this match-up. However, the Lions gained confidence and showed a lot of character in battling back against San Francisco last week. Yes it was a fortunate ATS cover for Detroit but that does not change the fact that it gave new QB Jared Goff and this Lions offense some confidence heading into this week's match-up. Keep in mind Green Bay was turnover-prone last week and just overall it was an ugly performance against the Saints. That said, consider that New Orleans then went on the road yesterday and looked very bad against the Panthers. As for the Niners they went on the road and beat an Eagles team that is playing inspired football early this season. The point is Detroit's cover against San Francisco might be more impressive than first realized and Green Bay's demolishing at the hands of New Orleans might be even worse than originally thought. I would not be surprised to see these teams trade scores a bit and for the Lions to hang around throughout this contest. Look for a game decided by a margin of about 7 points which means we have great value with the big points offered here. 10* DETROIT +12 |
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09-20-21 | Orioles v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
MLB Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia -1.5 +110 - I respect John Means for the Orioles. He is a very solid pitcher. However, Ranger Suarez has been dominant for the Phillies so Baltimore has no edge in the pitching department here. That said, Baltimore is really in trouble when you compare everything else too. The Phillies have the bullpen edge, lineup edge, and home field edge in this one. Of course this is why they are a big favorite of nearly 2 to 1 on the money line. Where we get our value is on the run line. Phillies actually are available at a plus money price by laying the 1.5 runs and I am looking for a dominating win in this one. Baltimore is 47-102 on the season and 82 of their 102 losses have been by 2 or more runs! The Orioles are slumping again too with losses in 7 of their last 9 games. 6 of those 7 defeats by 2+ runs. The Phillies are off a tight loss to the Mets last night but this followed 4 straight wins. Also, Philadelphia is 4-2 in home starts for Suarez and he has a 1.85 ERA in his 9 starts this season and has dominated out of the pen too. The lefty having a phenomenal season. Again, respect to Means but Suarez has been even better and all the other edges are with the Phillies in this one too and that makes this an easy anti-Baltimore call as we fade one of the worst teams in the majors. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 +110 |
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09-20-21 | Nationals v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 101 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
MLB Monday MLB 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Miami - Late season match-ups between two teams that are simply looking to finish out a sub-par year are the types of situations I like to look at for overs. There is no playoff pressure. The hitters come to the plate relaxed. That said, when you have a pitching match-up that should be conducive to an over in a spot like this, it is time to pull the trigger. I know the Nats Fedde has been strong against the Marlins this season but the over is 3-0 in his last 3 starts and this is still a guy who has a 5.16 ERA on the year. Miami catching him at home and seeing him for the 3rd time in 4 weeks absolutely should lead to some success at the plate in this one. At the same time, Luzardo is going up against Washington in a similar situation - 3rd time in 4 weeks - and the Nationals have been hitting him hard. Luzardo has a 6.37 ERA on the season in his 15 starts and the over is 10-5 in those outings. More of the same here as he has a 9.00 ERA against the Nats this season and also the Marlins get their fair share of runs at home in this one too. 10* OVER 8.5 in Miami |
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09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens +4 - The Ravens are off a disappointing OT loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. For all intents and purposes, their season is now over. I am being sarcastic of course but I am simply pointing out public perception here as this line has risen on the Chiefs from -2.5 point favorites to being as high as -4.5 point favorites. Keep in mind Kansas City went 14-2 SU last season but only covered 6 of the 16 games. There is a lot of value here in the home dog in this one. Baltimore is off a road loss and now back home and, keep in mind, they got the cash in 10 of their 16 games last season. KC, of course, is a great team but the public is so enamored with them that it often drives their lines too high. I strongly believe that will prove to be the case again here. Last year Mahomes outplayed Jackson and the Chiefs got a dominating road win at Baltimore last September. So everyone expects this game to be the same. The KC defense did not look good at all last week and gave up substantial yardage to the Browns both through the air and on the ground. Keep in mind, when a home dog can get their ground game going they are particularly dangerous. The Chiefs defense was at home last week and still did not look good. They are generally known for being tougher at home but that was not the case last week. That spells trouble as they now take to the road to face a Ravens team that is angry off a loss plus hell-bent on revenge from last season's home loss to these Chiefs. Keep in mind, Ravens were on a 6-0 ATS run prior to losing to the Raiders last week. Look for them to get back into the SU win column here but I will gladly grab the points as added insurance here as well. 10* BALTMORE +4 |
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09-19-21 | Phillies +111 v. Mets | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies +110 - DO NOT CARE WHO PITCHES. The Phillies have won 4 straight games. Conversely, the Mets have been on the fade for awhile now. New York has lost 5 straight games and 8 of last 11. I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, I am recommending ACTION on the pitchers and feel strongly that the hotter lineup and better overall team gets it done again in this one. Kyle Gibson has struggled recently but he held the Mets to just 1 earned run in 6 innings last month and New York is simply a team lacking confidence at this point. That starts to show up in how the hitters approach their at-bats too and I look for the Phillies to get a big early lead here which will further help Gibson in that regard. Rich Hill gets the start for New York here. Mets are 0-2 in his last two starts and he struggled in most recent one against Cardinals. Hill has decent numbers last 3 starts but 2 of those were against a bad Marlins team and a slumping Nationals team. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-19-21 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | Top | 25-48 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 50.5 in Tampa Bay - The Falcons got embarrassed last week by the Eagles. Their defense here stands no chance against this Bucs offensive machine. Tampa Bay looked great on offense against the Cowboys on opening night. However, the Buccaneers defense certainly had some issues against Dallas. I am well aware of the fact that Atlanta scored only 6 points last week and this week they must throw the ball much more than they did against the Eagles. Too many rushing attempts were getting them nowhere against the Philadelphia defense. Forced to play catch up again this week, look for the Falcons to be much more focused on an aerial attack against TB in this one. The Tampa Bay defense was on its heels some against Dallas and Matt Ryan is a veteran QB whom I expect to be better this week after a tough effort versus Philly. Still adjusting to life without Julio Jones but Atlanta does have some weapons. Tampa Bay threw the ball 50 times last week and only ran it 14 times. With Falcons forced to play catch up in this game (double digit dog for a reason) they will be forced to throw a lot too. That said, games with heavy passing tend to be high-scoring and I like the downward line move on this total as it was even higher before coming down a little. I look for this game to get into the upper 50s. Look for a 35 to 24 type game here at a minimum. 10* OVER 50.5 in Tampa Bay |
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09-19-21 | Chelsea -140 v. Tottenham Hotspur | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
EPL 10* Top Play Chelsea -140 - Tottenham has 3 wins thus far and just 1 loss. However, the 3 victories for the Hotspur were each just by a 1-0 count. The lone loss was a 3-0 drubbing at the hands of Crystal Palace last week. Tottenham also did not perform well outside Premier League action this week and suffered a couple injuries. Unlike the Hotspur, Chelsea continues to roll like a well-oiled machine under Thomas Tuchel and I do not see them being denied here. We get line value because Chelsea is on the home pitch of Tottenham for this one. That means we get a reasonable money line price on the superior club because they are the travelers here. Chelsea has outscored their foes 9 to 1 on the campaign. This opportunity just too good to pass up. I respect Tottenham for sure but they will struggle with the suffocating defense of Chelsea and, at the other end of the pitch, I look for the visitors to find the back of the net a pair of times at least to secure the victory. 10* CHELSEA -140 |
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09-19-21 | Manchester United v. West Ham United OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
EPL 9* Top Play OVER 2.5 in West Ham United - Manchester United and West Ham have been two of the highest scoring clubs in the league thus far. Look for more of the same here. Manchester United is ready to go on the attack here after a disappointing 2-1 loss to the Young Boys outside premier league activity in their most recent match. Man U has a long unbeaten streak in road matches but faces a West Ham club that is firing on all cylinders right now. Even though West Ham will be without Antonio here, the hosts have plenty of firepower and I do not see either club delivering a clean sheet in this one. Also, both teams hungry for the full 3 points in the table and will not settle for a draw and a sharing of the spoils. That said, look for at least a 2-1 final here and this cashes our ticket. 9* OVER 2.5 in West Ham United |
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09-18-21 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton Elks +7 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -104 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
CFL Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton +7 - The Elks are starting back-up QB. I am well aware of this but, at home and with solid running skills, Taylor Cornelius is going to be a pleasant surprise. Getting a full +7 with Edmonton at home is a huge value. The Elks have been very strong statistically this season and should have a better record. They have a solid defense and added another key piece to that defense with a recent star acquisition. This team solid on both sides of the ball and they catch Winnipeg off a key divisional win over Saskatchewan. The set up here is perfect for a home dog upset. Yes the Blue Bombers have been very solid early this season but laying a full 7 on the road against a quality home team is simply too much. Yes the Elks Cornelius is making his first start at QB but he has solid QB skills and there is a big difference between making your first ever start at home comparted to on the road. He is going to have a solid game and this defense for the Elks also keys a very tight game decided by a single score margin in my strong estimation. 10* EDMONTON +7 |
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09-18-21 | Tulane v. Ole Miss OVER 76 | Top | 21-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 76 in Ole Miss Rebels vs Tulane Green Wave @ 8 ET - Huge total posted on this game. I know this might make it seem risky but this is simply not the case when you consider the potency of these two offenses and the fact that both defense have big-time question marks too. Tulane averaging 52 points per game this season and Ole Miss averaging 48.5 points per game so far this season. Both teams like to play fast on offense. This game should have a very fast pace and the defenses will wear down as the game goes on. Yes Tulane played a weak team last week but their first game was at Oklahoma and they put up 35 points but allowed 40. Ole Miss looks as potent as ever on offense but don't be fooled by their early season point totals allowed on defense. They faced an FCS team, Austin Peay, last week. Also, the Rebels were fortunate the prior week as they held Louisville to just 24 points but the Cardinals missed a number of scoring chances early in the game which completely changed the complexion of this game. With the potency of the Green Wave attack, as well as that of the Rebels, don't look for many missed opportunities offensively in this one. It should turn into a back and forth very high-scoring shootout! Ole Miss has a bye on deck and then faces Alabama. The Rebels will not hold back here as they can rest up next weekend courtesy of the bye. That means a relentless Ole Miss attack could get into the 50s here but I expect the Green Wave to also hang around in this one. With this line at two TD's don't be surprised if we see a 51-37 type game in this one. That still clears this total by double digits and that is why this is a top play for me! 10* OVER in Ole Miss |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State -5 | Top | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
CFB Saturday 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions -5 - Not only has Penn State won at Wisconsin, the big win they had over Ball State means they did defeat the MAC Champions of a year ago quite handily. Granted Auburn is a very strong SEC team but this game is at Happy Valley where PSU is known for being a tough team to face. The Nittany Lions hold a key edge here too and that is the fact that the Tigers QB has struggled on the road. While the Auburn QB has solid overall numbers in his career, the positive production has come at home whereas on the road Bo Nix has thrown as many picks as touchdowns. It is no wonder the Tigers have had some road struggles during his time under center. Long term this Auburn team has only covered 32% of the time the last 25 times they have been a road dog. Look for Penn State to carry momentum from their strong start to the season right into this game. This is a night game at Beaver Stadium and the crowd will be roaring with the ESPN cameras on hand. The Nittany Lions defense returned the majority of key contributors from last season's team and I look for this D to make things very tough on Nix and the Tigers offense as his long-term road struggles continue. The line from a 7 down to a 5 is leading to solid line value here as well! 10* PENN STATE -5 |
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09-18-21 | Phillies -111 v. Mets | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies -110 - DO NOT CARE WHO PITCHES. The Phillies have won 3 straight games. Also, Philadelphia has won 3 of last 4 road games when facing a right-handed starter. Conversely, the Mets have been on the fade for awhile now. New York has lost 4 straight games and 7 of last 10. I will touch on the pitchers here but, again, I am recommending ACTION on the pitchers and feel strongly that the hotter lineup and better overall team gets it done again in this one. Aaron Nola has a 2.51 ERA last 3 starts versus Mets and has struck out 24 in 14 and 1/3 innings in those outings. He is 8-3 in his career when starting against the Mets. Carlos Carrasco gets the start for New York here. He has a 6.66 ERA this season in home starts. Carrasco has decent numbers last 3 starts but 2 of those were against a bad Marlins team and Miami did hit him hard in one of the two outings. Look for the road team to roll in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-18-21 | Everton v. Aston Villa OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 107 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
EPL Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Aston Villa - Everton has been rolling big-time under new direction of a former Liverpool manager. They have piled up goals with their new attack and are averaging 2.5 goals per match. This will be an intriguing fixture however because Aston Villa is on their home pitch and certainly not going to back down here. Aston Villa is averaging 1.5 goals per match this season as a host. Last season Aston Villa also averaged 1.5 goals per match. We are getting some line value here because Everton was not a high-scoring club last season but they are a different club this season since changing managers. This should be a highly entertaining match as both clubs will be aggressive on the attack. Everton, as the travelers here, will look to force the issue on the road and I look for their attacking style to lead to a high-scoring match here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Aston Villa |
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09-17-21 | Mariners v. Royals OVER 9 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NOTE: Jon Heasley, called up from AA Northwest Arkansas is now expected to get the start for the Royals in this one as Brady Singer was placed on the injured list. As noted in my original write-up, I do not care who pitches here. This is a TOP PLAY OVER no matter who the starting pitchers are: MLB Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Kansas City - The Royals burned me last night as the over 9.5 totaled just 9 runs and cost me a 5-0 sweep. We should get some payback right here coming right back with the over. This time Kansas City is hosting the Mariners. Note that Seattle is entering this game on run of 12-0 to the over their last dozen games. No matter who pitches here I look for the over to cash in this game so try to play this at a sports book that does not list pitchers on totals. The Mariners have scored an average of 5.3 runs per game last dozen games. The Royals, prior to last night's 7-2 loss to the A's, had scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games. This is why pitchers are not so important even on totals. How hot a lineup is really matters and both these teams, last night notwithstanding for KC, have been getting the job done in that regard. The expected starters, again I do not care who starts, are Flexen and Singer. Note that Flexen has a 5.40 ERA in last 3 starts and the over is 10-2 in his road starts this season. Singer is 4-10 with a 4.85 ERA this season and just got rocked in his most recent start. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER 9 in Kansas City |
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09-17-21 | Central Florida v. Louisville +7 | Top | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFB Friday 10* Top Play Louisville +7 - The Cardinals lost to an Ole Miss team in week 1 that has certainly looked very sharp early this season. I feel we have great home dog value here as a result. Yes the Rebels proved very tough on the Louisville defense in week 1 but they were one of the best offenses in the nation last year. Yes the Knights are a fantastic offense too but the Cards were more competitive in week 1 than the final score showed. They had chances to put points on the board early and did not and the game got away from them after that. I don't see that happening again here. Central Florida is not the exact same powerhouse when they are on the road and this game is going to be a challenge for them. I would argue that Louisville has the better defense in this match-up plus the better special teams units overall and when you add that to home field edge plus getting about a full TD here as a dog I like my chances with the hosts here. Look for UCF to drop to 4-8 ATS that last dozen times they have been a road favorite. It has not shown up yet from an ATS standpoint but this Cardinals team is improved this season but flying under the radar due to an 0-2 ATS start. The result is line value in this spot. 10* LOUISVILLE +7 |
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09-17-21 | Phillies -138 v. Mets | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
MLB Friday 9* Top Play Philadelphia -138 - No matter who pitches here I like the Phillies to get the road win. Philadelphia is riding the momentum of a huge win yesterday. They were down 7-0 early and yet not only rallied for the win, they crushed the Cubs 17 to 8! The Phillies have the better lineup and swept the Mets by a combined score of 12 to 5 when these teams met last month in Philly. New York enters this game struggling on a 3-game losing streak and having lost 6 of 8 overall. The expected pitchers (again I do not care who pitches, go with action on the pitchers) are Wheeler and Walker. Note that Wheeler has dominated the Mets this season including 2-0 with 16 scoreless innings while striking out 18 in last two match-ups against them. Wheeler also enters this start on fire overall with 1 runs allowed in 13 innings while striking out 17 over his last two starts. Walker is struggling bad with 11 runs allowed in less than 11 innings of work over his past two starts. 9* PHILADELPHIA -138 |
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09-17-21 | Calgary +2.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
CFL Friday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders +2.5 - I absolutely do respect the Tiger-Cats defense. However, they have a major issue at QB. They lost starting QB Dane Evans to injury last week and now they are starting a guy, David Watford, who has hardly played at the CFL level. This is no disrespect to him but just saying it is going to be a difficult situation for him. For Calgary, the situation is completely different. Not only is Bo Levi Mitchell back, the other QB that had filled in him for was fantastic. Jake Maier can step right if Mitchell got hurt again. The point is that right now the Stampeders have two healthy quarterbacks that are both better than the Tiger-Cats current starting QB. Losing Evans really hurts this team. I look for the Stamps to build off last week's dominating win at Edmonton and get another big road win here. Note that Hamilton is still over-valued because of their success in the 2019 season. This Ti-Cats team simply is not the same team right now. They are likely to struggle to score points here. 10* CALGARY +2.5 |
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09-17-21 | Leeds United v. Newcastle United OVER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
EPL Friday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Newcastle - Both these clubs conceding goals in bunches so far in this campaign. In fact, Leeds and Newcastle are the two worst clubs in the league thus far in terms of goals allowed. That is one key factor here and then there is this one too: Leeds had no draws in 19 league road matches last season. So if each club scores at least once and Leeds is unwilling to settle for a draw (odds certainly favor that) then you can expect to see at least a 2-1 final here. The fact is Leeds likes to attack and is willing to risk defensive shortcomings by being aggressive on the attack. With that said, we should see plenty of scoring here. Newcastle showed some fight in their battle with Manchester United last week and I certainly see them having some success against the leaky defense of Leeds. That said, we have a ton of value with this total in the 2.5 range. Newcastle's home matches averaged totaling 3 goals last season and Leeds road matches averaged totaling 3.5 goals last season. I am expecting quite an entertaining match here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Newcastle |
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09-16-21 | Giants +3.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 42 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants +3.5 - Remember at the end of last season when the Eagles former head coach Doug Pederson seemingly surrendered the last game of the season when it was very important to the Giants playoff chances? That game did not directly involve New York but it did directly involve Washington and it ended up handing the NFC East title to the Football Team rather than the Giants. Soon New York will have their chance at payback over the Eagles but, first things first, the Giants get a shot at the team that took the NFC East title over them last year. I like New York's chances to get some payback here! Washington will have their #2 QB going here as Heinicke gets the start because Fitzpatrick going to be out some time now with a hip injury. He will probably miss 6 to 8 weeks and Heinicke is now the guy. Though he has shown some flashes of strong play he is still rather inexperienced at the NFL level and there is a reason coach Ron Rivera had selected Fitzpatrick as the starter of course. Look for the Giants defense to force some errors on Heinicke's part in this one. Both teams off losses last week but Washington was statistically dominated while the stats differential in the Giants game showed slimmer margins. I also like the fact that New York has won 5 straight games over Washington and look for that to reach 6 in a row here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS +3.5 |
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09-16-21 | Ohio v. UL-Lafayette -20 | Top | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
NCAAF 10* Top Play Louisiana -20 - The Bobcats are a mess as long-time veteran head coach Frank Solich stepping down over the summer really seemed to hurt this program. While Tim Albin already was with the program, the head coaching experience here is new to him and Ohio University has really struggled. After a season-opening home loss to Syracuse by a 20 point margin the Bobcats should have been ready to respond. The fact they then lost again at home, and this time to an FCS program, speaks volumes about the state of this team right now. Certainly I also know that UL Lafayette did not look good last week and were also facing an FCS opponent. However, the difference is that the Ragin' Cajuns came into this season as a ranked team and were off a demoralizing loss at Texas to open the season. Louisiana was still getting over that defeat when they barely edged Nicholls State last week. That said, I look for ULL to finally play a complete game here and they will not take their foot off the gas here. The Bobcats have been particularly bad on defense early this season and ULL will pound away all game long. Also, Ohio U only scored 9 points in their only game against an FBS school this season. The stats of the ULL game at Texas show that the Cajuns were not as bad as the final score shows. That being said, we truly have value here even with this big number. I expect the home team to win by 4 to 5 touchdowns in this one as the Bobcats continue to suffer some early season growing pains under Albin. 10* LOUISIANA -20 |
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09-16-21 | A's v. Royals OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -114 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Kansas City - The Royals scored 10 yesterday but it still was not enough as the A's scored a dozen! However, it did mark the 2nd straight day that Kansas City reached the double digit mark in runs scored. The Royals have scored an average of 6 runs per game last dozen games! The A's are averaging 7.5 runs scored in their last 8 road games. This is why, no matter who pitches here, I like the over in this match-up. The starters are expected to be Blackburn and Lynch and I will mention their numbers here but, again, no matter who pitches I like the over based on the hot sticks in these two lineups. Blackburn is 0-2 with 7.00 ERA in his two road starts this season and he has been hit hard in each of his last two starts and one of those was at home. Lynch has 6.83 ERA at home this season and he has been hammered in each of his last two starts and one of those was on the road. The point is these guys getting rocked everywhere of late but their home/road splits also show the value with this play. Look for a pair of red hot lineups to lead the way to an easy over again here. 10* OVER 9.5 in Oakland |
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09-15-21 | Red Sox v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle - The over is now 11-0 in Seattle's last 11 games. The Mariners bullpen helped the cause again last night in an 8-4 final that included plenty of late scoring. Getting an 8.5 on this total is a great value. The rather low total is because Marco Gonzales is on the mound for the Mariners. Yes he does have decent overall numbers but he has allowed 16 homers in his 11 home starts this season and has a 5.87 ERA in his 3 career starts against the Red Sox. The over is 7-4 in Boston's last 11 games and the Red Sox have scored an average of 5.5 runs during this stretch. They build off last night's 8-4 win with another strong performance at the plate here. The issue for Boston however will be their own starting pitching situation. Tanner Houck is winless in his 11 starts this season and has a 4.86 ERA in his road starts. He has been roughed up in his last two road starts plus has had 7 walks against just 4 strikeouts in those outings. That does not bode well for him here as the Mariners have averaged 5.4 runs per game during their 11-game over streak. Look for that run to reach a perfect dozen this afternoon! 11-0 L11 and another one expected here. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle |
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09-15-21 | Brewers -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
9* Top Play Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -130 - The Brewers lost yesterday in an unexpected 1-0 extra-innings battle. That made no sense based on the pitching match-up and the way those two starters had been pitching. That said, look for reality to return this afternoon. Brandon Woodruff has a 2.48 ERA in his 27 starts this season. Matt Manning has a 6.13 ERA in his 14 starts this season. In the last road start Woodruff made, he allowed 1 earned run in 6 innings. In the last home start Manning made, he allowed 8 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work. Brewers 49-25 on the road this season. Tigers have been a decent team this season but this one set up to be a complete mismatch and a road rout should result. 9* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -130 |
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09-14-21 | Cubs v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
MLB 10* Top Play Philadelphia Run Line -1.5 +100 - The Phillies offering great line value here. I know Kyle Gibson has struggled last two starts but both were on the road. Between his time with both the Rangers and Phillies this season, Texas and Philadelphia went 10-1 in his 11 home starts. Gibson has a 7-1 record this season pitching has a host with a fantastic 1.59 ERA. He has pitched very well at Citizens Ball Park since coming to Philly. As for the Cubs, they have lost 3 straight and 4 of last 5 and those games were at home. On the road this season Chicago has a 26-43 record and I am expecting another blowout road loss here. The Cubs are 32-52 this season against teams with a winning record. Adrian Sampson has good numbers this season but in limited action. This is a guy who is 6-14 with a 5.37 ERA in his 47 career MLB games (22 starts). Phillies still very much alive in the playoff race and yesterday's off-day will prove to serve them well here as Gibson and his teammates bounce back big at home. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-14-21 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
MLB 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore - Yes Gerrit Cole is on the mound for the Yankees but that is keeping this total lower than it would otherwise be. The Orioles pitching situation is such a mess. Baltimore expected to start Alexander Wells here but really it never matters who the Orioles start because their pitching staff is such a mess including a league-worst bullpen. There has been only one under in Baltimore's last 6 games and they have allowed an average of 10 runs per game during this stretch. The Orioles have just 2 unders last 9 games have scored at least 6 runs in 6 of those 9 games so they have been hitting decently and are known for hitting better when at home. Wells has a 7.94 ERA in his 4 starts this season and just faced the Yankees and got rocked. The over is 5-0 in the Yankees last 5 games and New York has allowed an average of 7 runs per game last 9 games! In other words, their bullpen has not been overly sharp of late and, as noted above, the Orioles bullpen has been a train-wreck. Yankees have scored at least 6 runs in 3 straight games and stay hot here. 10* OVER 9 in Baltimore |
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09-13-21 | Ravens -4 v. Raiders | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
NFL 10* Top Play BALTIMORE -4 - Way back in May when the NFL schedules first came out, the Ravens were in the range of a full TD favorite. Now the line is down to a -4. I'll take it! Defense wins football games. Take a look at the results so far in Week 1 to gauge what I am telling you. The teams that allowed 16 points or less went 10-0. Only one of the wins was by less than a 4 point margin by the way. But what about teams that score real well. Surely they do perfectly well also, right? Actually you would be surprised. There were 5 teams that scored 21 points or more and still lost their games. Those 5 teams averaged 27.2 points per game. That is not a bad scoring average but, as you can see, it is still defense that wins the games. Now look at this match-up. The Ravens are known for having huge preseasons and then opening the new season with a week one win in blowout fashion and I do not see this game being any different. Baltimore was one of the best defenses in the league last season. Las Vegas was one of the worst. The Raiders made some moves in the off-season to address their poor D but it will take some time for the units to jell on that side of the ball. I love the fact that the Ravens are on the road here because we get a much more favorable line. At home they would be a double digit favorite. Instead, on the road and because the betting public is enamored with the Las Vegas team being at home and having a potent offense, we get a low line of only -4. This one should be an absolute rout as the Raiders may hang around for awhile but this Ravens team too strong on both sides of the ball and that eventually wears down Vegas as this game goes on and the road fave should pull away for a win by a double digit margin. 10* BALTIMORE -4 |
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09-13-21 | Astros v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 15-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 9 in Texas - The Rangers Spencer Howard, former Phillie, has made 11 starts this season and has not won any of them. Amazingly he has trended under this season but that has truly kept him under the radar in terms of his poor performance and the fact that we should see some overs the rest of the year with him. Why? Well Howard has a 5.69 ERA this season and has been particularly poor at home with a 9.45 ERA as a host this season. He'll be opposed by Jake Odorizzi in this one. The Astros right-hander has seen the over go 12-7-1 in his starts this season and with both teams off unders yesterday (despite Rangers having 11 hits) I feel we have some value with this total posted at just 9 runs. Texas has had a disappointing season but they have been surprisingly competitive late in the year. The Rangers have been relegated to playing for next year so to speak but have won 9 of last 13 in that role. Texas has averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. As for the Astros, they are off back to back low-scoring games but this was preceded by a stretch of 4 straight overs and Houston averaged scoring 7.8 runs during this 4-game stretch. They are sure to get going again at the plate as they face a struggling Howard here. The decent recent hitting for each club is why I really don't care who the starting pitchers are as I look for the over to improve to 10-6 in what is now the 16th game between these in-state rivals this season. 10* OVER 9 in Texas |
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09-13-21 | Burnley v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 115 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 2.5 +120 in Everton - I am well aware of the fact that Burnley struggles to score goals. It has been their M.O. for a few seasons now as they just try to turn matches into grinders and hope for the best. However, Everton is not going to let that happen here. Under the direction of Rafael Benitez, this club has been rejuvenated. Everton has already scored 7 goals in 3 matches and they have scored at least twice in each match. Here is the key to the over though. Everton could be flat here. I really believe we are going to see some issues for this club just like we saw when Tottenham battled Crystal Palace early Saturday. Tottenham had been rolling and winning key matches and then came out flat and lost 3-0. I am not expecting a clean sheet for either club though here. Everton will score but I am looking for Burnley to find some leaky defense to their liking here as Everton makes the mistake of underestimating here. Keep in mind, Burnley won here 2 to 1 last season and a similar result here would not be a surprise. Either way I am looking for at least 3 goals here because this has proven to be a favorable match-up for Burnley in recent seasons and I feel they will again catch Everton at the right time to make this match a dandy and it sees 3 or 4 goals as a result. 10* OVER 2.5 +120 in Everton |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams -7.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
10* Top Play Los Angeles Rams -7.5 - The Rams had the #1 defense in the NFL last season. The Bears and Rams had similar production on offense last season in terms of points per game but the Bears ranked 26th based on yardage while Los Angeles was 11th. Also, consider this key fact, Matthew Stafford is a gamer that played for a bad Lions team for years. The new Rams QB comes from Detroit where the Lions register double digits in losses year after year. Now he comes to LA where the Rams have averaged double digits in wins the last 3 years. Stafford could truly excel now on a much better team and this Bears defense is "okay" but still a little suspect in my mind. They are definitely not on the Rams level. That being said, you have the better defense and better offense and the much better overall team. Keep in mind Chicago is now going with Andy Dalton at QB. No disrespect to him as I have always felt he is a real gamer too but his best seasons are behind him. Coming to Chicago is not going to change his fortunes like Stafford going to the Rams will do. Dalton 30 tds and 22 ints last 2 seasons and one of those with a Cowboys team that had some talent. Look at Stafford's last 2 years, both with bad Lions teams, and he piled up a ton of yardage and threw for 45 td's against just 15 int's. This line is low as 7.5 which if you give the Rams say 3.5 points for home field edge that would mean the line is -4 on a neutral field. I feel, based on all the match-up edges here, LA is much better than 4 points in comparison with the Bears. I wish we could get -7 here of course but that won't happen but I am expecting the Chicago offense to struggle badly to score and that means Rams by 2 TDs in this one in my opinion so we still have great value here. 10* LOS ANGELES RAMS |
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09-12-21 | Packers v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER the total in New Orleans - This game was moved to Jacksonville because of the hurricane damage in New Orleans. This total is as low as 49 as of early game day morning and I love the value here. The Saints defense performed admirably well last season but lost a ton of veteran experience and now relying on some youth and inexperience. They'll be fine long-term but facing Aaron Rodgers and the top-scoring offense from last season is not how you want to open up your new season breaking in a lot of new guys on defense. While the Packers averaged 32 points per game last season, they also allowed 27 points per game in their first 7 road games of the season (last game held decrepit Bears offense to 16 points at Chicago). So the point is, away from Lambeau Field in particular, the Packers defense is not so special. I know the Saints offense (averaged 30 points a game last year) will not be the same without Drew Brees. However, this is still a well-coached team with a lot of weapons on offense and I except them to have success against a Packers defense that has proven to NOT travel well. 10* OVER the total in New Orleans |
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09-12-21 | Rockies v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
MLB 10* Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -120 vs Colorado Rockies @ 1:05 ET - Momentum is huge in any sport and the clubhouse spirit will finally be much better in Philly than it has been. Not only did they get a much needed win yesterday to snap their losing skid, the Phillies also saw all the teams they are chasing each lose. The Braves, Reds, Padres all lost yesterday and so Philly picked up a game in both the divisional race and the race for the final wild card spot. Snapping their losing skid yesterday look for the Phillies to come up with another big win here. Wil grab the run line of course because Philadelphia is priced very high in this game so the money line is out of the question. But the run line should prove well worth it as the Rockies have been dreadful on the road this season and the Phillies have a huge pitching edge here. Colorado is 20-51 in road games this season and Feltner got destroyed in his first start of the season last Sunday against the Braves. As for Nola, though he has been up and down this season, he has been more consistent again at home this season. Solid 3.33 ERA at Citizens Bank Park plus a very impressive 0.99 WHIP at home. The Phillies are 5-0 in Nola starts versus Rockies and he has a 3.06 ERA in those 5 outings in his career. Keep in mind that includes outings at hitter-friendly Coors Field too. 10* PHILADELPHIA -1.5 -120 |
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09-12-21 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
MLB 10* OVER 9 runs in Detroit - No matter who pitches here I like the over as the Rays continue to be on a high-scoring tear long-term. However, the pitching match-up here that is scheduled certainly does not hurt our chances of a slugfest! Tampa Bay's Luis Patino is off a start in which he allowed 4 earned runs in less than 3 innings and this was at home. Note that Patino has an ugly 7.44 ERA in his 3 road starts this season! As for Tigers starter Tarik Skubal, he has a 9.00 ERA his last two starts and has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts overall. The over 5-1 last 6 Rays games and 7-3 last 10 Tigers games and that trending continues here. 10* OVER 9 runs in Detroit |
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09-12-21 | Liverpool v. Leeds United OVER 3 | Top | 3-0 | Push | 0 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
10* OVER 3 goals in Leeds United - Liverpool is off to a hot start and has already scored well early this season. The match against Chelsea, as you would expect with the Blues stingy defense, was a low-scoring battle. Other than that though, the Reds have impressed on the attack. As for Leeds United, that is what they are known for - to be aggressive on the attack. Being a host for this one I expect some extra aggression from Leeds on the attack as they are desperate for their first win of the new campaign. It has been two draws and a defeat thus far for the host and they can not afford to just sit back and think that will change their fortunes. This club is best when they are on the attack. Of course this often does carry some risk at the other end. Checking the numbers from last season, Leeds matches averaged 3 goals. As for Liverpool, they averaged 2 goals per match as travelers but Leeds averaged 1.63 goals per match on the season. You can see why I am expecting 4 goals here which would give us the win but even 3 goals gets us a push which is not the desired result but certainly a nice safety net here too. Just the way Liverpool has started and knowing what Leeds is capable of on the attack, I am looking for a 3-2 finish or a 2-2 draw here. Should be quite the entertaining affair given the scheduling factors as Liverpool ready to be turned loose on the attack after being bottled up by Chelsea in their league match before the international break. 10* OVER 3 goals in Leeds |
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09-11-21 | Stanford v. USC OVER 53 | Top | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER the total in USC Trojans vs Stanford Cardinal @ 10:30 ET - This is not the same Stanford teams of old. They will throw the ball more because they have to. The concern though is the Cardinal defense can absolutely be exposed by the talented USC offense. One of the keys I like here is that Stanford scored only 7 points last week but were done in by turnovers while the Trojans allowed only 7 points last week but were helped by turnovers. San Jose State threw for over 300 yards against USC last week and you know Stanford is likely to be forced to turn to their aerial attack here because they are likely to be playing catch-up. USC is a big favorite in this game with good reason. The Trojans just have too much talent at the skill positions and will be tough for the Cardinals defense to stop. For those of you that like historical data, which certainly does not hurt us here, the over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings between these teams at USC. Note that Stanford allowed 200 yards rushing at Kansas State last week and that means Southern Cal can certainly gash the Cardinal D on the ground here and that will make the Trojans aerial attack even more dangerous. USC was very balanced on offense last week and had over 400 yards combined between the ground and through the air. The Cardinal allowed 32 points per game last season but also scored 32 points per game in the final 5 games of the season. Southern Cal did not have a single game finish with less than 50 points last season and 4 of the 6 totaled 55 points or more. I feel certain this one will too and we're getting line value here because each team off an under last week. 10* OVER the total in USC |
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09-11-21 | Washington v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
10* Top Play Michigan -6.5 - The Wolverines lost star WR Bell to a season-ending injury last week but the situation at WR for the Huskies is much much worse right now! When you look at who was expected to be the top 3 wide receivers on the depth chart all 3 are out right now! Of the 2nd teamers another guy is out as well right now. No wonder QB Dylan Morris threw 3 picks last week. How can the Huskies be in sync on offense when all the guys they thought they would be relying on to catch the ball are all out? Making matters worse, last week's game was a home game for Washington and was against an FCS school. Now they go on the road to the Big House and take on a Wolverines team hell-bent on having a better season this year. Michigan already pounded out a win over Western Michigan last week. Yes that is a MAC school but it was an impressive win nonetheless and these Wolverines are much more in sync right now on both sides of the ball than the Huskies are. Keep in mind, Washington played only 4 games last season and that was with a first year coach. Compare that to coach Jim Harbaugh, who love him or hate him, is now in his 7th season in his current tenure as Michigan's head coach and he is now 50-22 after last week's win. The retooled coaching staff under him has already implemented some positive changes for this season and I look for this very hungry team to "bring it" again on Saturday night and win this game by a margin of 2 to 3 touchdowns as the Huskies problems in the passing games are a major concern because they can not turn to the ground game for an alternative. Last week they were outgained 127 to 65 on the ground by Montana. The Wolverines only have Northern Illinois on deck so they were fully focused on this game as their toughest one in the first few contests of the season. That is bad news for Washington. This one gets ugly! 10* MICHIGAN -6.5 |
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09-11-21 | Calgary v. Edmonton Elks OVER 45.5 | Top | 32-16 | Win | 100 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 45.5 in Edmonton - The Elks and Stampeders had a high-scoring game last week and the way Harris played at QB for Edmonton and with how leaky the Calgary defense has been, we should again see a huge game from the Elks offense. However, the Stampeders should get a boost with the return of Mitchell because, even under the direction of rookie QB Maier, the Calgary offense has been electric early this season. The Stampeders problem has been in terms of bogging down in the red zone. However, with the veteran Mitchell now back at the pivot, look for the Stamps to get more production out of all their red zone opportunities. No team has more red zone opportunities this season than Calgary. However, no defense has allowed more passing yardage than the Stampeders have. Another shootout likely here. 10* OVER 45.5 in Edmonton |
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09-11-21 | Rangers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
NOTE: Rangers now going with Wes Benjamin most likely. This is still a play for me. The other factors in totals are bullpens, how teams are hitting, situational, etc. It is not just about starting pitching so I do not care that Texas is starting Benjamin. The A's should still hit plenty here. This is still a play for me: 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland - A's rolled to a 10-5 win yesterday and I look for another high-scoring game Saturday. Texas starts Kolby Allard and he is 2-12 with a 5.44 ERA on the season plus has been rocked for 2 homers in EACH of his last THREE starts. The Athletics start Cole Irvin here and he has been having a very rough time of late. He has allowed 5 homers in his last starts! Irvin has been hit very hard overall and has an 11.70 ERA in his last 3 starts. Allard has allowed 6 homers in his last 2 starts versus Oakland. Irvin just faced the Rangers and gave up 8 hits in 5 innings. Texas has been more competitive here late in the season and is 7-4 last 11 games and averaging 5.1 runs scored per game during this stretch. The A's have now scored an average of 6.2 runs last 10 games. Look for this one to get into double digits in runs scored. 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Oakland |
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09-11-21 | West Ham United v. Southampton OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Southampton - West Ham United has not produced a clean sheet in 8 straight road matches. Southampton has not produced a clean sheet in 14 straight matches overall in league action. Considering that plus the fact West Ham's matches have averaged 5 goals this season and Southampton's matches have averaged 3.3 goals this season, you can see why I am comfortable with the over in this one! Strong odds that each club gets on the scoresheet based on the above and certainly neither club wants to settle for a 1-1 draw. That being said, look for at least a 2-1 final here but truly I am expecting 4 or more goals here. West Ham is a club not afraid to risks and go all in offensively but this does tend to expose their weaknesses defensively and the hosts more than capable of taking advantage here. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Southampton |
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09-10-21 | UTEP v. Boise State OVER 56.5 | Top | 13-54 | Win | 100 | 17 h 13 m | Show |
10* OVER 56.5 in Boise State - The Broncos are angry off a loss at Central Florida. This Boise State can score points in bunches and this is particularly true when they are at home where they dominate. Coming off a loss, they will not take their foot off the gas here and they have no qualms about running up the score on teams. That said, UTEP is in trouble here. I feel the Miners defense, untested so far with two easy opponents to open the season, has no chance to stop the Broncos. One thing I will say though is the UTEP offense has a lot of returning starters and is capable of putting up some points here. I just see this one turning into a track meet with plenty of points. Of course the majority of the points will come from an angry Broncos team but they did not run the ball last week and that means plenty of passing throughout this game. The Miners also will be forced to pass to play catchup in this game and UTEP has essentially their entire offense back from last season so they will score some points here. I think the line is about right at a 4-TD margin but the over is the bet here because UTEP offense has capability especially in garbage time late in this game. 10* OVER 56.5 in Boise State |
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09-10-21 | Reds -125 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
10* CINCINNATI -125 - The Reds are 3-0 in Tyler Mahle's starts against St Louis this season. Mahle is 7-2 with a sparkling 1.79 ERA in road games this season. I know that Jon Lester also has good recent numbers and seems to be back in the zone again but I do not trust the southpaw here. Lester still has a losing record on the season and a 4.89 ERA on the year and I feel he is being over-valued by the markets now because of some surprising recent success. The Cardinals do enter this game off back to back wins. However, St Louis only has one long recent winning streak. Usually the streaks end after just two wins. The Cardinals are 1-5 the last 6 times they entered a game off exactly two consecutive wins. Good value with the road team here because Mahle has been piling up the strikeouts and can lead them to another win here but either way, no matter who starts, I like the Reds to bounce back here. If Lester goes, which is likely, look for the road team to pound him. 10* CINCINNATI -125 |
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09-10-21 | Hamilton +3 v. Toronto | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
10* Top Play HAMILTON +3 - The Tiger-Cats were the top team in the East last season and went all the way to the Grey Cup Game where they fell short against Winnipeg. This Hamilton team is still being undervalued by the markets. Yes they started the season 0-2 with a pair of losses out west against teams known for being very strong at home. However, the Tiger-Cats have responded by winning two straight games in divisional action and now here is their chance to start creating some separation in the division. Right now things are very tight in the division and I know Toronto wants revenge here because of the loss last week at Hamilton. However, revenge is over-valued and the Argos still are too mistake-prone and not quite on the level of this Ti-Cats team just yet. 10* HAMILTON +3 |
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09-10-21 | Kansas +26.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 22-49 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
10* KANSAS +26.5 - I know the Jayhawks have been a horrible team but Lance Leopold is a great coach. Granted he got a late start with this team as he was hired later than most new coaches are hired coming into a season. However, he is still - especially with help of coaching staff he brought over from Buffalo - going to get more out of this team than his predecessors have been getting here. They did struggled to run the ball against an FCS foe last week but I like how the defense performed. I also like the fact that, even as bad as the Jayhawks have been the last two seasons, they won the yardage battle against Coastal Carolina last season and the yardage battle was nearly equal in the 12-7 loss the year before that. The point is that there is not such a great separation between these programs as you would be led to believe by the huge spread posted on this game. I look for the Jayhawks to still lose this game by a couple touchdowns but that still gives us some cushion with this line at nearly four touchdowns! This team is going to play hard for Leopold and his staff and last week's game against an FCS foe was a good chance for the team to work through some early season issues. No overnight miracles here with these Jayhawks but I expect a competitive effort here and feel the Chanticleers will also be content to turn to their ground game and just start running clock once they do have a big lead. 10* KANSAS +26.5 |
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09-10-21 | Rays v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
NOTE: Tyler Alexander now expected to start for the Tigers. Still like this play, it is about the lineups not just the pitchers. Tampa Bay has been one of the hottest hitting teams in the majors for quite some time now as noted below and will bounce back off a low-scoring loss. Alexander is 5-9 with a 4.36 ERA and a .277 BAA in his career. The Rays will hit him well. Original write-up: 10* OVER 9 in Detroit - The Rays are off a 2-1 loss Wednesday but that followed a stretch of 4 straight overs. Also, Tampa Bay has scored an average of 8.8 runs last 5 games before that low-scoring loss. TB had scored more than 10 runs on their own in 3 straight road games prior to the 2-1 loss. They should pound the Tigers pitching here as Matt Boyd has struggled in his two starts since coming back to the rotation and the Detroit pen is nothing special either. As for Rays starter Michael Wacha, he has a 6.23 ERA on the road this season and the over is 7-2-1 in those 10 starts. The over is 6-3 in the Tigers last 9 games and they have averaged scoring 6 runs last 8 games. 10* OVER 9 in Detroit |
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09-09-21 | Cowboys +8 v. Bucs | Top | 29-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 53 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach NFL Rotation #451 Thursday 10* Top Play Dallas Cowboys +8 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ 8:20 ET - As long-time followers know, being a contrarian is ingrained into my long-term handicapping skillsets. That said, there is no sport more so than NFL where being a contrarian is a huge key to long-term success. I have also talked before about the sharpness of odds makers and about trusting their numbers in plenty of situations. Odds makers are known for being particularly sharp in the NFL and this is one of those cases where I am putting particularly strong faith in their numbers. Roll back the calendar 7 months ago and just imagine if the Super Bowl was on a neutral field and imagine if it was possible for two NFC teams to square off for the title and it was the 5-11 Cowboys against the 11-5 Bucs. Now make a line. Would your line have been -3? Of course not! Yet take a look at this now in the opening game of 2021. I could be proven wrong but I don't think I will but this could be the biggest "trap line" set in a long time. I am not a believe that the odds makers set trap lines on purpose. I am just saying when something looks "off" it generally fools the public and it is the sharps that end up cashing in. So back to that -3. When lines first opened on this game, and keep in mind the Bucs have all 22 starters back, the first number was a -6 in mid-May. Since this game is being played in TB that line is telling you the Bucs would only be a 3-point favorite on a neutral field. So now, according to the betting masses, the books have it all wrong. This line has been bet up to as high as an 8.5 and the odds makers just do not know what their doing. I am saying they did know what they are doing and the Cowboys are going to be a much improved team this season. The Bucs are, of course, still the better team but I look for this game to be decided by just a single score. Note that last season Dallas was without Prescott for 11 games and it was a disaster season in Dallas. This team will be much improved in year two under coach McCarthy. As for the Bucs, look for them to get caught being a little too "fat and happy" after last year's glorious season where everything seemingly broke their way for a clear path to the SB title. The Cowboys will punch them in the mouth a bit in this game and it will be a lot more competitive than most people are thinking. Keep in mind Tampa Bay went just 4-3 their last 7 home games last season and one of the wins was by 7 points and, overall, only 5 of the Buccaneers final 12 games (including playoffs) leading into their Super Bowl victory was a win by more than 8 points. Just a lot of value after the line move with this one and the odds makers had it right in my opinion so we'll happily grab the value on the other side in typical NFL contrarian style. 10* DALLAS |
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09-09-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
NOTE: Sticking with this play. Dobnak was scratched due to injury so modifying this write-up as of about 4 hours before first pitch. As noted below, there are situational reasons as to why I liked this play. Also, now Andrew Albers is the starter. He was called up from AAA to make this start but he has been getting rocked at a .288 clip by hitters at the AAA level. Also, at the MLB level, Albers got destroyed for 9 runs in 3 innings in most recent start and that was just earlier this month! ORIGINAL write-up: AL Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER 9 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - Look for the 3rd time to be the charm in this match-up. I have seen this pattern before. Two ridiculously low-scoring games followed by an easy over in the next one and that is what I am expecting here based on this pitching match-up and that patterned situation I have seen many times before in the past. The Twins Randy Dobnak just moved back into the rotation and he allowed 5 earned runs in first start back. He is 1-4 with a 6.29 ERA as a starter this season. The Indians should finally get their bats going in this one. Cleveland has not hit well against the Twins so far in the first 3 games of this 4-game set but they entered this series having averaged 6 runs per game last 11 games. As for Minnesota, they have averaged nearly 5 runs per game last 10 road games and their 4-game winning streak also leads to extra confidence at the plate. That is bad news for Cal Quantrill because he is off a start in which he allowed 5 earned runs and 3 homers plus has struggled against Minnesota. Quantrill has an 8.68 ERA this season in his two starts against the Twins and was hit hard in both outings. 10* OVER 9 in Cleveland |
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09-08-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Top Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #915 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - If you want to describe Triston McKenzie's recent performances on the mound as falling into the category of Superman you would not be too far off of reality. However, if that is the case do note that these Twins have proven to be McKenzie's Kryptonite! McKenzie has made two starts against Minnesota in the past 12 months and he has been rocked to the tune of a 12.92 ERA in those two outings. That said, look for the Twins to continue their recent road success here but I can't trust their starting pitcher in this spot either. But, first off, about that road success - Minnesota is 5-3 last 8 road games and the Twins have scored an average of 5 runs per game last 9 games. I know the Indians have suddenly fallen quiet at the plate their last two games but that was preceded by a stretch in which Cleveland won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game. I am looking for double digits to be scored in this one as Minnesota's Joe Ryan is making just his 2nd MLB start. Yes he has good minor league numbers but the step up to the bigs is a big one indeed. Even just looking at spring training 2020 note that he had a 6.14 ERA in 4 appearances (2 starts) against MLB competition. That said, this is also Ryan's first MLB road start and I expect the Indians offense to get back on track after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER 8.5 in Cleveland |
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09-08-21 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Run Line Rout - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #926 Wednesday 10* Top Play Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line -1.5 runs +130 vs Texas Rangers @ 3:40 ET - The Diamondbacks have lost 9 of 10 while the Rangers have won 6 of 9 and yet Arizona is favored as high as -165 on the money line as of very early gameday morning. Big mistake, right? Not at all but rather than laying that kind of price range, I am turning this around to a +130 payback by taking the Diamondbacks on the run line. Note that no team in MLB has fewer one-run wins than Arizona. In other words, if you like them to win, you generally come out much better laying the 1.5 runs with this team. 37 of their 45 wins have been by 2+ runs! As for the Rangers, 69 of their 88 losses have been by 2+ runs this season. The key in this one is the pitching match-up as Kohei Arihara has a 6.19 ERA this season while Luke Weaver, another starter who just came back to the rotation (like Arihara), is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in his home starts this season. Also, Weaver looked great in his first start back. The home team dominates after yesterday's putrid performance. 10* ARIZONA -1.5 runs +130 |
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09-07-21 | Phillies -107 v. Brewers | Top | 0-10 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
ACTION on the pitchers: Perfection Play - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line -110 @ Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 ET - Aaron Nola has had an up and down season for the Phillies but he is a real gamer and I expect to do what he has shown a knack for and that is to bounce back off a bad outing. He was done in by a couple of two-out homers in his most recent start but take a look at what he done recently when off a start in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs. The last 3 times it happened Nola has responded in his next start every single time. The combined stats from those 3 starts: just 3 earned runs allowed on only 7 hits while striking out 27 in the 21 and 1/3 innings spanning those 3 outings. Look for Nola to again come up big here as he is 4-0 with a 2.75 ERA in his 7 career starts against the Brewers. The Phillies have gone 6-1 in those 7 Nola starts versus Milwaukee. No matter who pitches in this game for either team I am suggesting to make this play because the Phillies offense has been lethal of late. Philadelphia is 8-2 last 10 games and have scored an average of 7 runs per game last 11 games. The Brewers have been winning overall of late as well but Milwaukee a mediocre 6-6 last 12 games and averaging only 3.3 runs per game last dozen games. Brewers starter Eric Lauer has low ERA versus Phillies but he gave up 6 runs (but only 2 earned) on 8 hits (including 3 homers!) in 6 innings when these teams met in early May. The way the Phillies are hitting, look for more struggles in this match-up for Lauer and the Brewers bullpen too. 10* PHILADELPHIA -110 |
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09-07-21 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 6:10 ET - These teams combined for 20 hits yesterday but the game stayed under the total. Look for plenty of hitting again today but this time it results in an over. The over was on an 8-3 run in Twins road games before yesterday's under. Minnesota did score 5 runs in the win and have now scored an average of 5 runs per game last 8 road games. The Indians were held to just 2 runs in the loss yesterday but Cleveland had won 7 of 11 games and scored an average of 6 runs per game during this stretch. Minnesota starter John Gant has a 7.30 ERA last 3 starts and each of his last two road starts have gone over the total. Cleveland starter Aaron Civale making his first start in quite some time but in his last start at home back in June he allowed 5 earned runs. He also allowed 4 earned runs earlier this season when he last faced Minnesota. 10* OVER 9.5 in Cleveland |
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09-06-21 | Louisville +10 v. Ole Miss | Top | 24-43 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #225 Monday 10* Top Play Louisville Cardinals (+) vs Ole Miss Rebels @ 8 ET - I have plenty of respect for the coordinators for the Rebels but they could have their hands full without their head coach (Lane Kiffin covid) here and facing a Cardinals team that is on a mission for big improvement under head coach Scott Satterfield this season. The key about the Rebels is they have a very bad defense. The Cards are going to score points here. The other thing is that, is a good as that Ole Miss offense is, I expect the Rebels to get caught trying to do a little too much here. What I mean by that is mistakes offensively because, without Kiffin on the sidelines, the play-calling will not be quite the same. There will be pressure on offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby to call a great gameplan here but will this hurt the rhythm of the offense? Keep in mind Rebels QB Matt Corral had some great numbers last season but if you look at their non-home games last season (this is a neutral site match-up) the Rebels went just 3-2 and two of the three wins were by 6 or less points with one of the wins in OT. Also, Corral threw 11 of his 14 interceptions on the season in two of those road games - at Arkansas and LSU. The road game that was an OT win was at Kentucky. The other tight win was the bowl game against Indiana. We all just saw the Hoosiers get smoked by Iowa Saturday. As for Arky, LSU, and Kentucky - none of the 3 teams had a winning record last season! I am not saying the Rebels will not win this game but I feel hanging onto any type of margin will prove difficult. The porous Ole Miss defense also gives the Cardinals great backdoor cover potential should we need it. Tremendous respect for the Rebels capabilities on offense but also note that Louisville had the #1 pass rated defense in the ACC last season and ranked 17th nationally as they allowed only 189.2 yards per game through the air. This game should be a battle all the way to the end. Grab the big points. 10* LOUISVILLE +10 |
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09-06-21 | Edmonton Elks +6 v. Calgary | Top | 32-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
ESPNews Network Rout - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #677 Monday 10* Top Play Edmonton Elks +6 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 4:30 ET - The Stampeders have played the tougher schedule. Also, they are at home for this rivalry game. However, there is plenty of reason to like the Elks in this one. I know their schedule has been a little weaker but in their 30-13 loss to Montreal the yardage was nearly equal. In their other two games they outgained their opponents by about 250 yards in one and 300 yards in the other. It is very hard to ignore domination like that and I like Edmonton getting 6 points here considering how tough their defense has been too this season. The Elks D has a lot of confidence right now and this offense actually averaging more yardage per game than any other team in the CFL. That said, love fading the line move here too as it went from an early opener of 3 to now as high as 6.5 for this Monday afternoon match-up. The Stampeders are a better team than their record shows but, still, they will have their hands full here. Also, with their #2 QB playing well but the #1 QB now coming back from injury, could this disrupt the chemistry on offense? I say yes it will and the Stamps will struggle just to win this game let alone cover the sizable spread. Elks off a bye week afforded by covid and they won their game solidly before the bye and were strong both on the ground and through the air and the defense does a great job with its pass rush. There is a lot to like in Edmonton right now but they are flying under the radar because of their 1-2 record. Grab the generous points. 10* EDMONTON |
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09-06-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
Perfection Play - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Monday 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line -1.5 -120 @ St Louis Cardinals @ 4:15 ET - The Dodgers are off a loss last night as Walker Buehler had a rare bad start at San Francisco. Look for a dominating effort from Max Scherzer to put them right back into the win column. The only thing I do not like about this play is it a day game in a back to back spot and the Dodgers had to travel east for it after playing on Sunday Night baseball last night. However, their game was a 4 PM local time start yesterday in San Francisco and so the travel situation really not all that bad. As for Scherzer, he is 4-0 with a dominating 1.29 ERA i his 6 starts since coming to the Dodgers! He also has held the Cardinals scoreless over 13 innings while striking out 20 in his last two starts against them including one this season! He'll be opposed by Miles Mikolas for St Louis. The Cardinals right-hander is off back to back starts in which he has allowed a total of 7 earned runs in a total of only 7 and 1/3 innings on the mound. Now facing a Dodgers lineup in bounce back mode, I do not expect this start to go well at all for Mikolas. Also, the Cardinals have to be feeling very "defeated" mentally after blowing a 5-1 ninth inning lead at Milwaukee yesterday. That is a crushing loss for a team chasing a playoff spot. The Dodgers, supported by the brilliance of Scherzer, take full advantage. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS Run Line -1.5 -120 |
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09-06-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Earliest Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 1:05 ET - The Yankees scored 7 runs but lost yesterday. The Blue Jays got 8 early runs in their game yesterday and then coasted to victory behind another dominating performance from Robbie Ray. Neither one of these pitchers are coming anywhere close to the level of a Robbie Ray right now. The Jays Hyun-Jin Ryu has allowed 10 earned runs in less than 10 innings over his last two starts. He gave up two homers and had more walks than strikeouts the last time he faced New York. The Yankees counter with Jameson Taillon here and he has a 9.22 ERA in his last 3 starts. All 3 of those went over the total and the over is 18-7 in his starts this season. The righty faced the Blue Jays earlier this season and got crushed for 5 earned runs in less than 4 innings of work! Toronto has won 4 straight games and scored an average of 8.5 runs per game. The Yankees have averaged 6 runs per game in their last 4 games against a southpaw starter. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in New York Yankees |
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09-06-21 | Toronto v. Hamilton OVER 44 | Top | 19-32 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #675 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Toronto Argonauts @ 1 ET - I know this is a rivalry game and an early-season battle for first place in the East. However, the over should prove to be the play here. Hamilton is coming off a big road win at Montreal and got a big game from QB Dane Evans, filling in for the injured Jeremiah Masoli. Ironically, Evans also was the starting QB in the most recent Labor Day battle (2019) between these teams and he led them to the comeback win with 31 of 37 completions and over 440 yards passing! As for the Argonauts, they have looked very strong early this season and Nick Arbuckle coming off a huge game at QB for them two weeks ago in their big win versus Winnipeg. He completed 23 of 32 for over 300 yards of offense. Don't be surprised if both offenses fare much better than you would think in a typical rivalry game as each of these units is "feeling it" right now and playing with a lot of confidence. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
Money Line Marquee - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #224 Sunday 10* Top Play Florida State Seminoles Money Line +240 vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ 7:30 ET - No points needed here. We already saw a few upsets in Week 1 of CFB involving top 25 teams and we are going to see another one here in my opinion. This game is the chance to put Florida State back on the map in College Football. Why are they are only a TD underdog to a team that went 10-0 in the ACC regular season last year while the Seminoles went 2-6 in ACC action? Precisely! This Notre Dame team, of course, is still going to be a quality team this season. However, the Fighting Irish had so much turnover from last season's team. Particularly concerning are major losses on offense and they lost nearly their entire offensive line. That is bad news against a Seminoles defense hell-bent on playing much better this season. They added some key players through the transfer portal and this FSU defense is going to be much better this season. At home, with the nationally televised cameras rolling and being the only game on the big board, watch the Noles step up very big here and shock an over-rated Notre Dame team still living off last year's successes. This team is really a shell of its former self and is going to be knocked off right away here in game one. The Seminoles have a different look and different attitude coming into this season and have two quarterbacks available now with returning starter Jordan Travis and senior transfer McKenzie Milton both an option to start. ND has a new defensive coordinator who certainly comes in with a strong resume (was with Cincinnati!) but the loss of Clark Lea at DC and some key players on the defensive side of the ball that spearheaded the D before could certainly hurt. Keep in mind, in the first year under FSU head coach Mike Norvell, there were a lot of leftover players from the Fisher and Taggart days. A lot of those players, many unhappy, were dragging down the ship last season. Those guys are gone and there is a lot of strong talent happy to be here that is ready to step right in. I feel the Noles are going to surprise here in week one right away and Notre Dame lost more than half their starters from last year! Upset alert! 10* FLORIDA STATE +240 |
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09-05-21 | Winnipeg +190 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 23-8 | Win | 190 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
Money Line Mauling - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #673 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers Money Line +190 @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 6 ET - Yes, the Roughriders want revenge for losing to the Blue Bombers in the post-season last season (2019). However, Winnipeg has plenty of motivation for this game as well. This is a big rivalry game and the Riders are currently the only undefeated team in the league sitting nicely at 3-0 on the young campaign. That means the Blue Bombers, the defending Grey Cup Champions, are not only on a mission to defend their title they also want to knock off their rivals and move into first place in the division. Winnipeg also has not forgotten losing here at Saskatchewan in the most recent CFL season and, in fact, they lost a pair of regular season meetings with the Roughriders in that year. There is no way they will overlook them here and they want to be the first to hand them a loss this season. In terms of line value, this one opened up with the home team at -3.5 and is now up to a -5. I love fading line moves and here is where the value gets really big. The very first money lines that came out on this game had Saskatchewan at -146 and Winnipeg at +122 and now that has been bet all the way up to the Roughriders being more than a 2 to 1 favorite and the Blue Bombers available at a +190 price. Give me the defending champs that will be highly motivated for a road win here and note Andrew Harris was back at running back last week and looked strong and he'll be ready to go here and is an MVP player for the road dog Bombers. 10* WINNIPEG +190 |
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09-05-21 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
NOTE: This is still a 10* Top Play for me. Pivetta was put on covid-19 list mid-morning today. So now Kutter Crawford makes MLB debut. Crawford had solid AA numbers in the minors this season but then struggled some when he faced AAA competition - 2-3 with 5.52 ERA in 6 appearances (5 starts). In his only spring training action (2019) he was rocked for 4 earned runs in 2 and 1/3 innings. I am betting he gets rocked again here. ORIGINAL write-up: Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Indians @ 1:10 ET - Yesterday's game was very low-scoring. I do not expect a repeat here! The teams were both scoreless through six innings but this starting pitching match-up should mean runs early, often and throughout this contest. Cleveland's Zach Plesac is off a strong start but it was at Kansas City. He faces a much tougher test facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park. There have only been 6 unders in Plesac's 20 starts this season. He had been hit hard in each of his two starts preceding the good one against the Royals. Boston will counter with Nick Pivetta here and he is consistently getting hit hard of late. Pivetta has a 10.12 ERA in his last 3 starts. On the season the Red Sox right-hander has a 5.60 ERA in home starts. Prior to yesterday's under, the over was on a perfect 6-0 run in games at Fenway Park. Look for that over trending to resume immediately in this early afternoon match-up. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Boston |
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09-05-21 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
AL RL Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #966 Sunday 10* Top Play Toronto Blue Jays Run Line -1.5 runs +100 vs Oakland A's @ 1:07 ET - Robbie Ray is on incredible run right now while Cole Irvin is struggling badly. Of course that is a big part of the reason the Blue Jays are a 2 to 1 money line favorite here. Where we get the value is by playing the run line as Toronto is available as low as even money by laying the 1.5 runs! This should certainly be a home blowout and note that 59 of the Blue Jays 72 wins this season have been by two or more runs! Ray has allowed just 9 earned runs in his last 7 starts spanning 47 innings! Also, he has struck out 35 batters in 22 innings in his last 3 starts! Ray is in top current form. As for Irvin, he is definitely at the other end of the spectrum. The Athletics left-hander has a 5.93 ERA his last 3 starts and he is fortunate that is not even higher! Irvin has a 2.12 WHIP in his last 3 starts. That means 2 baserunners per inning on average and he has 8 walks against only 3 strikeouts in his last 3 starts! This looks like a complete pitching mismatch plus Oakland has just 6 wins last 19 games while the Jays have won 6 of their last 7 games! 10* TORONTO -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-04-21 | LSU -2.5 v. UCLA | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
Bulldog's Best - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #213 Saturday 10* Top Play LSU Tigers -2.5 @ UCLA @ 8:30 ET - The Bruins have the edge of a game under their belt. Trouble is that game was against a Hawaii team that certainly did not look too good! This is the same UCLA team that only had 3 wins last season and the teams they beat went a combined 3-10 for the season. I still do not trust the Bruins QB against top tier competition. UCLA head coach Chip Kelly is going to have to prove to me that he can win a big game like this before I would hesitate to fade him. His Bruins just are not quite ready and this Tigers team comes into this game angry. Remember they just won the national championship but now are coming off a disappointing 5-5 season. Their defense was bad and they can not wait to make up for that. The process of the turnaround begins right here in Pasadena in Game One of the season and this highly talented SEC team goes on the road and makes a statement in their first game of the season. Love the fact that the line opened up in the -5 range over the summer but now is a -2.5 on gameday morning. We are getting great value here and keep in mind LSU projected to have a big bounce back season in a very tough SEC while the Bruins also play in a solid conference for sure but still UCLA nowhere close to the top tier programs like Oregon and USC in the Pac-12. Most of the rest of that conference nowhere close to SEC level and we have got great value with the Tigers here because everyone still remembering their disappointing campaign last season. 10* LSU -2.5 |
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09-04-21 | Indiana v. Iowa OVER 45.5 | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
Big Ten Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #173 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Iowa Hawkeyes vs Indiana Hoosiers @ 3:30 ET - The over is 6-0 last 6 times these teams have met in Iowa. Yes, the Hawkeyes are known for their defense but they lost some key guys on that side of the ball heading into this season. Of course Iowa is still going to still be a quality defense but this Hoosiers offense is one that is not afraid to take risks. Indiana, as shown last season and as seen this season with being ranked again, is a quality program that can put points on the board against anyone. I don't totally trust the Hoosiers defense here though, particularly on the road. This total is just too low in my opinion. The Hawkeyes scored at least 20 in all 8 games last season and averaged 32 points per game. The Hoosiers scored at least 20 points in 7 of their 8 games (including bowl game) and averaged 29 points per game. If each team gets to at least 20 and you have got a total in the mid-40s you have a solid chance of hitting your over! I feel we have the odds in our favor in a big way here because I expect each offense to move the ball better than most are thinking in this one. We also have nice weather in the forecast in Iowa and these offensive units each have plenty of confidence based on how they performed last season. Penix now back from injury at QB for the Hoosiers and Petras always seems to gut out wins at QB for Hawkeyes despite his unspectacular play. So look for the Hoosiers to get some big plays downfield and the Hawkeyes to be methodical but productive on offense and it all adds up to this game getting into the 50s, at least, in total points! 10* OVER the total in Iowa |
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09-03-21 | Michigan State v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 38-21 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #154 Friday 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 9 PM ET - The earliest numbers that came out on this game showed the oddsmakers set Northwestern as a 7.5 point favorite and the Cats now are all the way down to a -3 as of very early Friday morning. That means the betting markets are saying these teams are even on a neutral field and the Wildcats are essentially still getting the normal 3 points teams are often considered to have as a home field edge. I am not buying that. The Wildcats lost last season's game with the Spartans courtesy of 4 turnovers. It was their only loss of the regular season and is the first time in nearly a decade that they have lost back to back meetings with Michigan State. Northwestern will get some payback here. First off they are extremely well coached and have an excellent coaching staff put together. Secondly they are a system based team. They can not get the same talent that the bigger Big Ten schools are able to attract and bring in with their top recruits but it is their systems, smarts, hard work, and execution that make them a tough team. The problem with Michigan State (my pick to battle Rutgers for the worst spot in the Big Ten East) is that they have a head coach (Tucker) in his 3rd year overall as a head coach (2nd year with the Spartans) and he is trying to implement his systems but with many veteran players left over that were Dantonio recruits. The Spartans only other win last season, other than upsetting the Wildcats, was winning their annual biggest game of the year (versus rival Michigan). Other than that the Spartans had 5 losses and were outscored by a combined 202 to 70. Yes that works out to an average score of 40 to 14. I am not necessarily expecting that big of a margin here but this one will get ugly for Michigan State fans. The Spartans may get better as the season goes on but this team still trying to adjust to Tucker and his systems. 10* NORTHWESTERN -3 |
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09-03-21 | Montreal v. Ottawa +7.5 | Top | 51-29 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
East Div GAME OF THE MONTH - Rickenbach CFL Friday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks +7.5 vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - These teams have traditionally played on Labour Day weekend in Canada for many years. The games are almost always tight. The odds makers know this too. This line opened up at a 2.5 and yet has been driven all the way up to a 7.5 and that means it is "go time" with the Redblacks in this one. Tremendous home dog value here. The offense looked much better for Ottawa last week in what was their first home game of the season. They should build off that performance this week and have much more in the way of points on the scoreboard to show for it. Montreal is simply over-valued here. This is particularly true when you consider they will be without a key O-lineman and key D-lineman in this game. The Alouettes have been a pleasant surprise early this season but this is a rivalry game and they are on the road and the Redblacks are showing signs of turning the corner. I will gladly grab the generous points being offered to the home dog in this one. 10* OTTAWA +7.5 |
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09-03-21 | Twins v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
TOP Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #967 Friday 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET - Randy Dobnak coming back from an right middle finger strain. His most recent rehab appearance in the minors saw him walk 4 and allow 5 hits in less than 5 innings of work plus he struck out only 2. In the bigs this season Dobnak is 1-6 with a 7.83 ERA. Now he faces a Rays team that had been red hot but is off a shutout loss and has lost back to back games after a 9-game winning streak in which they scored an average of 7 runs per game! In other words, Dobnak is lined up to get rocked in my opinion. However, I am not playing Tampa Bay here because I simply can not trust Michael Wacha. The Rays right-hander is off a good start but was hit hard with 19 hits allowed in 10 innings spanning his two prior starts. Wacha also gave up 7 earned runs on 11 hits in 5 innings at Minnesota less than 3 weeks ago. Look for the Twins to pound him again here. I know Minnesota has, overall, not been scoring much of late but this is a good match-up for them and this flies over the total. 10* OVER 9 in Tampa Bay |
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09-02-21 | Ohio State v. Minnesota OVER 62.5 | Top | 45-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
FOX Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #145 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Ohio State Buckeyes @ 8 ET - I am aware of the rain moving into the Minneapolis area tonight but it might not even start during game time and if it does I do not expect it to be the heaviest stuff as that will come later. Either way, NOT a lot of wind is in the forecast and I expect the offenses to perform just fine here. I know the Golden Gophers are inexperienced at WR but they did add a lot of speed there and, per head coach PJ Fleck, this is the speediest group of wide receivers he has had here. Don't be surprised if they break open for some big gains as we have seen the Buckeyes secondary exposed before. Don't get me wrong, Ohio State is of course one of the best teams in the country and they are solid on both sides of the ball without a doubt. However, the Buckeyes allowed 25 points or more in 5 of their last 7 games last year. Also, the fact this game is on the road will certainly help the Golden Gophers and this Minny team has a solid O-line and is strong at RB and solid at QB. The issue for Minny is their defense and certainly the Buckeyes potent attack can (and will!) exploit that all game long. Ohio State should score plenty but don't be surprised if the Gophers respectable offense keeps them in this game. If they stay right around the 2-TD spread mark in this one (which I feel they will) that should mean plenty of points because I expect the Buckeyes offense to go wild in this one! I also like the fact this total was as high as 66.5 but has settled in at 62.5 as of very early gameday morning. 10* OVER the total in Minnesota |
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09-02-21 | A's -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play Oakland A's Run Line -1.5 runs +100 @ Detroit Tigers @ 1:10 ET - The A's have moved up Frankie Montas to start today's game and that is bad news for the Tigers. Montas has been in phenomenal form since the All Star break with a 2.16 ERA and holding opponents to a .203 BAA. Montas also is 4-2 with a 2.52 ERA in day game starts this season. He'll be opposed by Matt Manning of the Tigers in this one. The Detroit right-hander does have a lower ERA in the 2nd half of the season than he did in the 1st half but he has been quite fortunate. Manning got hit at a .330 clip in August and yet had a 5.23 ERA. As a result of some good fortune, he enters this start with a 3.24 ERA his last 3 starts. This is helping to give us some line value here with Oakland because Manning's stuff is still very hittable and the A's have averaged 5 runs per game last 6 games and had won 3 in a row before yesterday's 8-6 loss. That Tigers win was a rare offensive explosion as Detroit entered Wednesday's game averaging just 2 runs scored per game their last half dozen contests. Look for normalcy to return today and the Tigers resume their losing ways. Detroit had lost 4 straight prior to yesterday's win. Also, the Tigers are 38-50 against right-handers this season and the Athletics are 18-8 against AL Central division opponents this season. 53 of 71 Tigers losses by 2+ runs and 54 of 73 Oakland wins by 2+ runs this season. Those season-long trends continue with a road rout today! 10* OAKLAND Run Line -1.5 runs +100 |
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09-01-21 | UAB -15 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
ESPN Annihilation - Rickenbach CFB Rotation #907 Wednesday 10* Top Play UAB Blazers -15 vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ 7:30 ET - The Blazers are a strong CUSA team. The Gamecocks are a solid program but are an FCS team. This is a step up in class for them. Remember last year Jacksonville State faced Florida State and jumped out to a 14-0 lead partially benefitting from an INT return for a touchdown. The Seminoles, who only won two other games last season by the way, stormed back for a blowout win. This UAB team is rock solid on both sides of the ball and very strong in the trenches. The Blazers defense looks particularly solid this season. As for the strength along the O-line and D-line that is where UAB will get the keys to this victory. Jacksonville State does have a solid QB, he was formerly a back-up at Clemson, but if his teammates are getting beat everywhere else on the field there is not much he can do. UAB begins the season with 4 games away from home (this is a neutral site game) so I expect them to be fully focused here and am expecting them to wear down Jacksonville State as this game goes on. The Blazers can wear teams down on the ground and the Gamecocks might be able to hang around in the first half but eventually UAB is just too strong and has the big talent edge and will eventually pull away and win this game by 20+ in my opinion. 10* UAB Blazers -15 |
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09-01-21 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
AL West Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros @ 4:10 ET - Well aware of the fact that both teams have trended under of late but this game is set up perfectly for an over based on the pitching match-up. Jake Odorizzi starts for the Astros and the over is 11-6 in his starts this season and he has a 5.14 ERA on the road this season. In two starts at Seattle this season, Odorizzi allowed 7 earned runs in less than 10 innings of work. The Mariners start Logan Gilbert in this one. He has been rocked in his last 3 starts and one of those was against Houston and was a particularly rough one. In other words, this is unlikely to be the right match-up for him to turn things around. The over is 7-2 in Gilbert's home starts this season and he has a 5.66 ERA at home and a 13.50 ERA in his last 3 starts overall. Prior to yesterday's loss the Astros had won 8 of 11 games and scored an average of 7 runs in those 8 victories. Look for a big bounce back from Houston at the plate after being shutout by the Mariners yesterday but at the same time I certainly do not see Odorizzi enjoying success against the M's in this one either. 10* OVER 8.5 in Seattle |
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08-31-21 | Phillies +101 v. Nationals | Top | 12-6 | Win | 101 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
ACTION on pitchers - 10* Top Play PHILADELPHIA +101 - Hopefully they can get this one in before the rain hits DC area. They should have time to do so but then the weather from that hurricane that hit Louisiana is moving into the Northeast starting tonight. The Phillies are a red hot and that is why I do not care who pitches as the Nationals are ice cold. It has been a case of Lucky 7 for the Phillies as they have now scored exactly 7 runs in 5 straight games and in each of their last 2 road games. The Nationals will again be unable to match their offensive output. Philadelphia has also won 7 of 8 games at DC this season. Matt Moore may be tough to trust but he certainly is still capable of bettering Patrick Corbin. Note that Corbin has a 6.09 ERA as a starter on the season and an 8.36 ERA last 3 starts. The Nationals have now lost 7 of last 9 games and the road team gets it done again as they continue to narrow the gap with the Braves in the NL East. The Phillies are starting to believe as the Braves are starting to falter and now on a tough west coast road trip. 10* PHILADELPHIA +101 |
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08-30-21 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
ESPN Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Monday 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 ET - Nick Pivetta is off back to back rough outings and has now struggled in 6 of his last 8 outings. In fact, in those 6 outings it has been quite ugly with 23 earned runs allowed in 23 and 2/3 innings! Now Pivetta has to face the hottest offense in baseball. The Rays have a slugging percentage of .486 last 30 days to top the majors. Guess who is #2 in that category in the American League? Yes, it is the Red Sox of course. That said we have two very potent lineups here but we get line value with a low total that opened up at a 9 and dropped to an 8.5 as of very early Monday morning. I will gladly grab the value here. I know Luis Patino has good numbers at home this season but he has been struggling a bit of late with too many walks and too many homers. That included allowing 4 earned runs on 6 hits (including 2 homers) in 6 innings at Boston 3 weeks ago. The Red Sox should get to him again here. The over is 6-2 in Boston's last 8 games. The Rays have not had any unders in their last 7 home games. Those trends continue here! 10* OVER 8.5 runs in Tampa Bay |
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08-30-21 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
NL East Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #953 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs -100 @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 ET - When you look at Zach Wheeler's ERA last 3 starts and then Josiah Gray's ERA last 3 starts, the money line in the -170 range posted on this game would not make sense to you. However, Wheeler was left in his last start too long and has been fantastic this season. This looks like the perfect spot for him to bounce right back. The Phillies are 6-1 at Washington this season. Also, Philadelphia has some momentum heading into this game after taking 3 straight from the Diamondbacks. As for the Nationals, they have been heading the wrong direction for quite some time now. Yesterday's loss dropped Washington to 2-6 last 8 games. Also, the Nats have lost 18 of 24 games. 7 of Washington's last 9 losses have been by a margin of 2 or more runs. The Phillies have scored 7 runs in 4 straight games and also scored 7 runs in most recent road games. The Nationals only had 3 hits yesterday and have scored an average of just 3.6 runs per game last 7 games. The Phillies in a road rout in this one as Wheeler comes up big and Gray gets hit hard as the road team is getting a 2nd look at the young hurler - 1st start against them 4 weeks ago. 10* Philadelphia Run Line -1.5 +100 |
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08-29-21 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -6.5 | Top | 16-18 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I really like Jake Maier for Calgary at QB and he got much better as last week's game went on after a rough early start. That showed resilience and he also showed a lot of grit and determination in the 28-22 win versus Montreal. However, the back-up QB now goes on the road and he faces a very tough and physical Winnipeg defense which also is angry off their first loss of the season - at Toronto - last week. Keep in mind, the Blue Bombers are the defending champs and this defense allowed only 13 points total in its first two games this season. Those were at at home and this game is too and the Winnipeg defense bounces back. Also, I am looking for a huge game from the offense as well as they are expected to get a boost with the return of Andrew Harris at RB. He is a fantastic running back and, overall, one of the best players in the league at any position. All signs pointing to a home blowout here! 10* WINNIPEG -6.5 |
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08-29-21 | Rays -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
NOTE: I do not care who pitches here. If you have access to books that take all MLB plays as action on the pitchers that would be my best advice here. If you can not bet this play with action, I would recommend to re-bet it prior to game time (if sufficient time allows) if there would happen to be a pitching change in the hours leading up to game time. I will explain why in my write-up here: AL Run Line Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Run Line -1.5 -140 @ Baltimore Orioles @ 1:05 ET - This play is based on the teams not the pitchers. Certainly Archer rates a massive edge over Watkins and I will talk about that here. However, here you have a Rays team with the much better overall pitching staff so who cares if Archer does not start here or is limited by his hip? Who cares if Watkins does not start either? Who else do the Orioles have available that would strike fear into the Rays hitters? Exactly! This is one is all about a Rays team that is now 17-1 this season against the Orioles including 8-0 at Baltimore. Yesterday's win was by just a single run margin but I am expecting a road blowout here as Means gave a surprisingly good start yesterday. Watkins has a 16.20 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts versus TB. Archer just coming back from injury and now dealing with a hip ailment but has looked strong on the mound and piled up strikeouts in his limited action. Prior to yesterday's 1-run win, the Rays last 15 wins ALL were by 2+ runs! Look for this one to resume that trend as the Orioles season of misery continues. 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS Run Line -1.5 runs -140 |
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08-29-21 | Jaguars v. Cowboys OVER 36 | Top | 34-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
NFLX Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFLX Rotation #125 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 36 in Dallas Cowboys vs Jacksonville Jaguars @ 1 ET - The Cowboys have a battle going on for the #2 QB spot behind Dak Prescott. Now that Prescott has been pronounced fit for week one of the regular season, that means Gilbert and Rush will definitely be fully turned loose in this game to battle it out in this contest. Considering they are up against a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 23 points in each game thus far, I like our chances for plenty of Cowboys points here. Both of these teams are winless on the preseason and that is even with Dallas having already played 3 games thus far. I don't think either team will hold back in going for the win here no matter that it is a preseason game. As for the Jaguars QB situation, of course we may not see starter Trevor Lawrence in this one but CJ Beathard has been solid for the Jags in the preseason. In fact, other than the 2 picks thrown by Gardner Minshew (now traded away to Eagles), take a look at the Jags other QB numbers: 50 of 75 for 443 yards and 4 TDs and no INTs. Considering that as well as a very aggressive effort from the Cowboys QBs in this one I am expecting a high-scoring contest here. 10* OVER 36 in Dallas |
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08-29-21 | Manchester United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Manchester United @ 11:30 AM ET - I know that Wolverhampton has yet to score this season but they have generated over 40 shots on goal and they are going to get their just deserve soon enough. In fact, Manchester United has not delivered a clean sheet in any of their last 10 matches across all competitions. In other words, look for Wolverhampton to get on the scoresheet finally in this one. However, I am looking for a 2-1 type match. These clubs always tend to have tight matches decided by a single goal but Manchester United has incredible attacking talent. After a 5-1 win in week 1 was followed by a disappointing 1-1 draw in week 2, look for the visitors to be on the attack early and often in this match-up. The incredible signing of Ronaldo (though he will not play until after the international break) is a big momentum boost for this club as well. I look for the visitors to ride the positive wave of momentum here but I also expect the Wolves to put up quite a fight and all those chances they have been generating on the attack are finally going to yield some results. In fact a 2-1 type match is really my minimum estimate here. Look for a 3-2 type match as this one should prove highly entertaining at both ends of the pitch with plenty of quality chances. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Wolverhampton |
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08-29-21 | Watford v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
Early Striker - Rickenbach EPL Sunday 10* Top Play OVER 2.5 goals in Tottenham Hotspur vs Watford @ 9 AM ET - Tottenham his a heavy home favorite here for a reason. However, after opening up the season with back to back big wins, could the Hotspur overlook a newly promoted team like Watford? I do believe so and I feel Watford will find the back of the net at least once but Tottenham will ultimately prevail. Of course that puts this match at nothing less than 2-1 final which cashes our over ticket. I know Tottenham has been involved in low-scoring matches of late but with the international break on deck and with only Crystal Palace on deck in their next match after the break, I look for the Hotspur to be aggressive on the attack here. Watford will be forced to play the same style and, after all, what do they have to lose? Watford can take a run at Tottenham by trying to push hard for that first goal in the match but ultimately the Hotspur have too much attacking talent. Especially with the Harry Kane saga finally resolved, the home club should score plenty in this one and truly could end up getting this match over the total all by themselves. Look for a much more wide open match than the first two Hotspur matches this season. 10* OVER 2.5 goals in Tottenham |
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08-28-21 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NOTE about pitchers. I really do not care who pitches here. If there is a pitching change I would be re-releasing the play because the Rays are likely to go with Wacha but could go with Patino. The Orioles have no strong pitching left as Means was their one guy who was solid earlier this season but now even he is struggling and their bullpen has been horrid. This play is ON no matter who pitches but looks like will be Means vs Wacha. Please re-bet the over if it changes sometime prior to first pitch in this one. TOTAL ANNIHILATION - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #971 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 7:05 ET - Patino is not likely to start here but just mentioning he is winless with a 7.44 ERA in his 5 road starts this season. Wacha is more likely to start and he has a 7.64 ERA in his 7 starts since the All Star break. Look for the Orioles (10 hits yesterday and 31 runs the 3 preceding games) to enjoy some success at the plate no matter who is pitching for the Rays. The reverse is true as well as the Rays should pound whoever the Orioles have out there. Looks like will be Means and he is 0-3 with an 8.16 ERA last 3 starts as his recent struggles continue. The Orioles bullpen has been one of worst in majors this season. Tampa Bay has won 9 of 10 games and scored an average of 7.2 runs per game during this stretch. This game has over written all over it after yesterday's game fell just short. 10* OVER 9.5 runs in Baltimore |
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08-28-21 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 43.5 | Top | 24-12 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
ESPN+ Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER 43.5 in Ottawa Redblacks vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - The news on the injury front for each of these teams was better on the offensive front and worse on the defensive front. That, in and of itself, certainly helps an over. What also helps an over is value in the line and this total has been pushed very low because of early season results. I look for both teams to come out strong offensively in this one. BC has allowed at least 21 points in 2 of 3 games this season. Ottawa has played only two games but did allow 23 points (and 400 yards!) last week at Saskatchewan. This is the Redblacks home opener. They should respond better at home and, looking to bounce back after some ugly performances on offense, I do expect Ottawa to score more in this one. However, the Redblacks also allowed just 12 points (but on 443 yards!) in their very fortunate week one upset at Edmonton. That said, this defense just can not be trusted and the BC offense is capable of a big showing here. It all points to this total being set far too low and I am expecting 50+ in this one so we elevate this one to a top play rating. 10* OVER 43.5 in Ottawa |