Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-07-24 | CS U Craiova v. Steaua Bucharesti OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Sunday OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - The over is a perfect 8-0 in Universitatea Craiova road matches as they each totaled at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 4 goals! In other words, goals will fly here in this one! Both clubs entering with 2-0 records so far in the play-off stage as well! Universitatea Craiova lost the most recent meeting with FCSB 3-0 but has since scored in 9 straight matches and averaged scoring 2 goals during this stretch! Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and FCSB has scored 8 goals in these 3 matches! Look for a wild one here as FCSB is so strong but Universitatea Craiova has been playing well and scoring well. FCSB has scored well at home and is averaging 2 goals per match in the last 7 on their home pitch! Look for that run noted above to reach 9 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB |
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04-07-24 | Nottingham Forest v. Tottenham Hotspur OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200053: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 +110 in Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest @ 1 ET - Tottenham is averaging 2 goals scored per match this season plus they are at home here plus they are facing one of the weaker clubs in the league. The Hotspur are hosting a Nottingham club that has allowed 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Given these numbers and the match-up edges for the hosts, you can see why I am expecting Tottenham to score at least 3 goals here. The Hotspur are also motivated because of coming off a 1-1 draw. They are directly behind Aston Villa in the table so they would like to make a push for the #4 spot in the table! That said, 1-1 draws do not help much in that regard! Look for them to blowout Nottingham Forest there. The visitors should also get on the board however. They are off a 3-1 win and have scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches. Plus Tottenham has allowed at least 1 goal in 11 straight home matches! That is an amazing stat and when you also consider that the Hotspur are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line here, you can see why a 3-1 or 3-2 type match is highly probable in this one. Take advantage of the plus money at over 3.5 goals in this one! OVER 3.5 +110 in Tottenham |
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04-07-24 | Liverpool v. Manchester United OVER 3.5 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
Rotation #200077: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 -125 in Manchester United vs Liverpool @ 10:30 AM ET - Some concerns for each club defensively entering this one. In terms of offensive production, the Reds are averaging 2.3 goals scored per match this season and Man U is averaging 1.4 goals scored per match on the campaign. Also, 2 of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled 7 goals! Liverpool enters this match having averaged 3.5 goals scored per match last 4 matches. Man U has scored an average of 2.5 goals scored last 4 matches. Even though some personnel could be back for each club here, there are still health concerns and depth concerns with each club defensively. That coupled with each clubs attacking strengths means we should see plenty of goals in this one! OVER 3.5 -125 in Manchester United |
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04-07-24 | Universitatea Cluj v. Hermannstadt OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Sunday OVER 2 +105 in Hermannstadt vs Universitatea Cluj @ 7:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt is tough on their home pitch and is actually undefeated there ever since losing their home opener. Yes, undefeated last 15 matches and having scored an average of 2 goals per match during this stretch! Their last two home matches were both wins and they scored at least 3 goals in each of them. Universitatea Cluj has not been allowing goals of late but, per the above, I don't see them shutting down Hermannstadt on their own turf. As for Universitatea Cluj entering this one off a scoreless draw, they had won 3 of 4 matches prior to that and had scored 1.7 goals per victory. The low total of 2 on this one adds to the appeal and we will gladly invest here. OVER 2 +105 in Universitatea Cluj |
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04-06-24 | 76ers v. Grizzlies OVER 209 | Top | 116-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Saturday OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 8 ET - There are a lot of question marks about who Philly will have on the floor for this one but the odds makers do have them as a double digit favorite for a reason here of course. That said, this is a late-season non-conference match-up that features a non-playoff team hosting a playoff team that is off B2B key tight wins over stronger teams. I could see a bit of a lackadaisical defensive effort permeating this game from both sides because these are the type of late season match-ups that would lead to a more wide-open affair. It also helps the cause that Memphis has won 3 straight and has been scoring a little better of late. Look at it this way...the Grizzlies have averaged 110 ppg L3 games overall and 110 ppg L5 home games. The Sixers are favored by about 13 in the marketplace so that would put this game at 123-110 for a total of 233 points. I am not saying that happens but I am saying we have some value here when you consider that number is two dozen points above the current posted total of 209 on this game as of about 10 hours before tipoff. The Sixers have won 3 of 4 and have averaged 117 ppg during this stretch and multiple guys missed out in some of those games as well. So even if the 76ers have guys again missing in this one, you can see what they are capable of even without a stacked lineup. Going back to that original formula again looking at the other side of the equation, that puts this at Philly 117-104 over the Grizzlies. A dozen points on top of the current posted number. I see value with this total given the situational and match-up factors. OVER the total in Memphis |
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04-06-24 | Flyers -150 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -150 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Flyers -150 @ Columbus Blue Jackets @ 7 ET - Must win for the Flyers and I know they have been on a losing streak but now they face one of the worst teams in the league. Finally Philly gets on track here. Flyers won the first two games by a combined score of 9 to 4 but the Jackets won the most recent one 3-2 in the shootout. This will be payback. Blue Jackets down to their #3 goalie Jet Greaves and he has only 4 NHL starts under his belt in his career and he is 1-4 all time with a GAA north of 3 in his young career. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-06-24 | Devils v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER 6.5 in Ottawa Senators vs New Jersey Devils @ 7 ET - The Devils and Senators each allowing plenty of goals of late. New Jersey has allowed 18 in last 4 games and has lost 3 straight games. Ottawa has allowed 9 goals last 2 games. Each of their two meetings this season have totaled at least 7 goals. Devils have scored 29 goals in last 8 games and have had 4 straight games go over the total. The Sens are off a 6-0 loss but had scored average of 4 goals in last 6 games prior to that. 4 straight unders after 7 straight Senators games had gone over the total. The way each of these teams has been allowing goals of late, look for the over trend to resume. Their 3 games last season averaged 7 goals. The goals fly when these teams meet. OVER 6.5 in Ottawa |
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04-06-24 | NC State +9.5 v. Purdue | Top | 50-63 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
NCAA Final Four Saturday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 6:10 ET - If you look at the two match-ups today we are talking about two very big favorites. In my opinion the best value is here with this underdog. NC State has been the cinderella team in this year's tourney and, conversely, as much I would like to pull the trigger on Alabama today, Connecticut has burned me multiple times and I just can not go against the Huskies. Out of both games today I feel the best value is in going against Purdue. As strong as Edey is, and he has the height edge here of course, Burns is likely going to do a job against him because he is such a big body. From a conditioning standpoint too, the time off has helped him. NC State has been playing very well defensively for an extended stretch now. They have the guard play to be strong enough on the perimeter too that I don't think this is going to be an easy "inside - outside" game for Purdue. The Boilermakers should still do enough to prevail but it will not be easy. I know the Boilers beat just beat #2 seed Tennessee but as long time followers know, I was not expecting much from the Volunteers because Rick Barnes track record in tourneys is not exactly stellar! That said, Purdue got 40 points from Edey or they likely would not even be here for this match-up today with, arguably, an even more dangerous dog. This Pack team is playing the underdog role perfectly as their confidence is building with each win and they feel no pressure. All the pressure here is on the Boilers to advance. As a result, don't be surprised if Purdue has another very ugly shooting performance here. Points are as high as 9.5 as of 10 hours before tipoff! Grab the big points! NC STATE (+) |
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04-06-24 | Phillies -168 v. Nationals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Saturday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - You can reduce your wager level on this one a bit because the money line is in the -175 range. However, I feel this is well worth the investment level and should cash us a nice ticket. Yes, both teams are struggling early this season but, for the Nationals, that was to be expected while the Phillies are certainly expected to be the much stronger team this season. That said, this is the classic case of buy low, sell high because this price would be much higher if the Phillies were off to a hot start as I mentioned in yesterday's write-up on this same match-up. In this case we take advantage of the value as this line could have easily rather been above a -200 fave level. Just like Nola and the Phillies bullpen yesterday, Suarez will take advantage of facing a weaker lineup here. The Phillies stats are a little skewed because of their first two games being ugly. Note that since then, not including extra innings of course, the Phillies have allowed only 2.8 runs per game last 5 games! As for the Nationals, they have consistently allowed big runs as, prior to yesterday they had given up 6 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games. Also, though both teams faced the Reds, the Nationals also faced the Pirates (losing season again last year) while the Phillies faced the Braves (off another huge season last year). The Phillies Suarez is a tough southpaw and the Nats Jake Irvin went 3-7 with a 4.61 ERA last season. Road rout here! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-06-24 | CFR Cluj v. Rapid Bucuresti OVER 2.25 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Saturday OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 times Rapid has hosted CFR Cluj and, prior to a 1-0 win for Rapid at CFR Cluj, the last 4 meetings overall had all gone over and they averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, Rapid is off a 2-1 road win and their last 3 matches at home have all gone over the total and have averaged 4 goals apiece. As you can see, there are multiple perfect angles here. As for CFR Cluj, they have scored an average of 2 goals in their last dozen matches! Also, they have both scored and conceded in 5 straight road matches. Those have averaged 3 goals apiece. You can see, given the above, why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti |
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04-06-24 | Arsenal v. Brighton & Hove Albion OVER 2.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show |
Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -140 in Brighton & Hove vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Brighton & Hove was shutout at Arsenal earlier this season but they scored 2.5 goals per match in 4 meetings prior to that. They will be out for revenge on their home pitch but Arsenal is battling for the top spot in the table with good reason. Also, this club rested some guys in their mid-week match so fresh legs will make them even more dangerous in this battle. Arsenal is off some lower-scoring wins of late but it is sounding like the shackles will be off in this one and I expect them to play an aggressive attacking style on the road here. Arsenal has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match on the road this season. Brighton, despite some recent low-scoring battles, does still have attacking talent that can make a little noise on their home pitch here. I can't see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 -140 in Brighton |
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04-06-24 | Voluntari v. Petrolul 52 OVER 2 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206889: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Saturday OVER 2 -115 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Voluntari @ 10:30 AM ET - Petro off a 1-0 win in most recent home match but this was preceded by 4 straight overs at home and those 4 matches as a host averaged 3.5 goals apiece. FC Voluntari has had 3 straight overs in road matches in league action so we are testing a 100% perfect trend here with this picks and have great value with the low total in this one. OVER 2 -115 in Petrolul Ploiesti |
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04-06-24 | Burnley v. Everton OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #200085: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -130 in Everton vs Burnley @ 10 AM ET - Everton has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches at home. Burnley has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches overall. Also, there have been 0 draws in the last 5 meetings between these teams. In other words, the handwriting is on the wall that this match should get to at least a 2-1 final. Also, Everton has scored 5 goals in the two meetings (one in Carabao Cup) between these clubs this season but Burnley enters this one having scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches and they've scored an average of 1.7 goals during this stretch. Take advantage of the line value with the low total on this one. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 in Burnley's last 6 road matches in league action and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for that streak to reach 7 in a row in this one. OVER 2.5 -130 in Everton |
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04-06-24 | West Ham United v. Wolverhampton Wanderers OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #200073: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -135 in Wolverhampton vs West Ham United @ 10 AM ET - The last 13 meetings have each had a victor. No draws. That said, can you expect either team to fail to score here? Not in my estimation and the data supports this as well which is why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. West Ham is known for struggling defensively on the road while Wolverhampton is thrilled to be back home after a lot of away matches of late. So look for an emphasis on attack from the Wolves in this one but also note that they have allowed multiple goals to the Hammers in 2 of the last 3 meetings. Wolverhampton and West Ham both off 1-1 draws but, again, there has not been a draw in any of the last 13 matches. With West Ham allowing 2 goals per match on the road this season and the Wolves allowing 1.5 goals per match on the season, look for at least 2-1 in this one! OVER 2.5 -135 in Wolverhampton |
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04-05-24 | Heat -2.5 v. Rockets | Top | 119-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
NBA Friday Miami Heat (-) @ Houston Rockets @ 8:10 ET - As of very early game day morning the Heat are in the -2.5 to -3 range and some money lines are still as low as the -125 to -135 range. I am jumping all over this one early because the Rockets season ended last night. Houston is still mathematically alive but their season effectively ended after they wasted a glorious opportunity last night. The battle for the final play-in position for the upcoming post-season is basically down to just Golden State and Houston. The Rockets were hosting the Warriors last night. They had a chance to move within 2 games of GS with a win. Instead they lost and dropped 4 games back with only 6 games to go. That said, their season is finished and they know it! For me, it is not just about the loss last night, it is the fact that the Rockets got blown out on their home floor and actually were outscored by the Warriors in all 4 quarters! What kind of team is that when you can't accomplish anything in the biggest game of your season! Give some credit to the Warriors for sure but the fact is the Rockets are as soft as a wet paper towel right now! The Heat come into this game hungry and fired up off the home loss to the Sixers last night. That was a tight game and Miami is in a battle with teams like the 76ers and Pacers to secure the #6 seed in the conference and avoid the play-in round. That said, though they fell short last night, the Heat but in a helluva strong effort. Also, they could get Herro back tonight on the floor and that will be another big boost. The Rockets lost starter Amen Thompson to a rolled ankle late in yesterday's game. He has averaged 30 minutes per game last 9 games and they may not rush him back considering their season, as noted above, is effectively over now. This is a great spot to back the Heat at a great number! MIAMI (-) |
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04-05-24 | Flyers +108 v. Sabres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
NHL Friday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line +105 @ Buffalo Sabres @ 7 ET - Huge playoff implications here. The Flyers are 0-3-2 last 5 games but have only one other 5-game losing streak this season. That one ended at 5 games and this one will too. The road team has won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these clubs and the lone exception was the Flyers winning on home ice. Look for the road team trend to continue between these clubs and Philly avoids what would be their longest winning streak of the season. The Sabres sent Levi back to the minors so they are carrying Luukkonen and Comrie as their two goalies right now. Luukkonen has been quite inconsistent of late. He had a recent start that he was pulled before the 9 minute mark so, essentially, his last 5 starts have amount to normal total minutes of 4 starts and over this span of an equivalent 4 starts he has allowed 18 goals - an average of 4.5 goals per 60 minutes! Comrie has played sparingly this season and would be rusty if called upon here and he has a 3.91 GAA on the season. The Flyers have had issues of their own of late but 3 of the 5 teams they lost to (and 2 of those 3 were the OT games) were solid playoff-level teams. The Sabres are a solid team but, for the reasons above, this is the ideal situation to back a Flyers team in a perfect spot to get back on track and at an underdog price. PHILADELPHIA +105 |
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04-05-24 | Phillies -173 v. Nationals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
MLB Friday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 6:45 ET - You can reduce your wager level on this one a bit because the money line is in the -175 range. However, I feel this is well worth the investment level and should cash us a nice ticket. Yes, both teams are 2-4 this season but, for the Nationals, that was to be expected while the Phillies are certainly expected to be the much stronger team this season. That said, this is the classic case of buy low, sell high because this price would be much higher if the Phillies were off to a hot start and if Nola had a good first start. In this case we take advantage of the value as this line would have easily rather been above a -200 fave level. Nola will take advantage of facing a weaker lineup here. The Phillies stats are a little skewed because of their first two games being ugly. Note that since then, not including extra innings of course, the Phillies have allowed only 3.5 runs per game last 4 games! As for the Nationals, they have consistently allowed big runs as they have given up 6 or more runs in 5 of their 6 games. Also, though both teams faced the Reds, the Nationals also faced the Pirates (losing season again last year) while the Phillies faced the Braves (off another huge season last year). Also factor in that Corbin gets the start for the Nationals here and note that he has a 27-57 record since the start of the 2020 season and has an ERA in th 6.00 range since the start of the 2021 season. Road rout here! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-05-24 | Farul Constanta 1920 v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -62.5 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi vs Farul @ 1:30 ET - Sepsi off a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj but this followed 4 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals. Sepsi has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 matches! Farul is off a 1-0 loss versus FCSB but this followed a 2-1 win over Rapid. Now Farul takes a step down in class to face a Sepsi club they have scored an average of 1.6 goals against in last 5 meetings. However, even though Sepsi is not quite on the level of FCSB or Rapid, they are still a solid club on the attack and will be aggressive on their home pitch after settling for a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj last time out. OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi |
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04-05-24 | Botosani v. UTA Arad OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -111 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +115 in UTA vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - UTA off a scoreless draw on the road. However, they have been a different club at home in Arad. UTA is on a long 8-match unbeaten run on their home pitch. Also, UTA has seen 5 of last 6 matches at home total at least 3 goals! Those 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Their last 11 matches at home have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Botosani enters this match off a 2-1 win over Iasi and 7 of their last 9 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. We get to at least 3 in this one! OVER 2.5 +115 in UTA |
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04-04-24 | Flames v. Jets OVER 6 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 102 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
NHL Thursday OVER 6 in Winnipeg Jets vs Calgary Flames @ 8 ET - Hellebuyck has not been himself for a while now. He has allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of his last 5 starts. Dustin Wolf is expected to start for the Flames here and he has lost 3 straight starts and allowed at least 4 goals in 2 of those. Winnipeg and Calgary have both been struggling and each team should be viewing this game as a great opportunity to get their scoring going. That's because the Jets have allowed about 4 goals per game last 7 games. Also, Calgary has allowed 4 goals per game in their last 7 games. You can see why goals can be expected to fly here. The Flames have scored 10 goals last 3 games. The Jets have scored 3.5 goals per game last 11 home games. OVER 6 in Winnipeg |
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04-04-24 | 76ers +115 v. Heat | Top | 109-105 | Win | 115 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Philadelphia 76ers money line +115 @ Miami Heat @ 7:40 ET - I know the Sixers have some guys questionable for this game but I would not be surprised to see every single one of them on the floor for this game. The reason I say that is because this is a huge game in the playoff picture and, either way (even if some guys miss), I like the way the fill-ins have been playing for the Sixers also and they surge for the win here. This is a key game because Miami is in the #6 spot while Philly currently is in the #8 spot yet the Sixers can move within a half-game of the Heat with a win here. Of course the Sixers would rather avoid the play-in round if possible so that #6 seed is quite coveted. There is a reason this line is priced so low on the Heat even though Embiid, Maxey and Harris are all listed as questionable for the 76ers. Don't let the line fool you. The underdog gets the job done here. No points needed! PHILADELPHIA +115 |
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04-04-24 | Penguins -109 v. Capitals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Pittsburgh Penguins -110 @ Washington Capitals @ 7 ET - Not only has Pittsburgh not given up yet on the season, they have the goalie edge in this huge showdown with Washington Thursday. Nedeljkovic is 4-0-1 in his last 5 starts and did not allow more than 3 goals in any of those games. Not only that, Washington's Lindgren is struggling between the pipes of late. The Capitals goalie has allowed at least 5 goals in 2 of this last 3 starts and lost all 3 games! Both teams have been playing well as they make a late-season push for the playoffs but the goalie edge is the key here with the road team in this one. Also, TJ Oshie is out again for the Caps in this one. PITTSBURGH -110 |
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04-04-24 | Indiana State v. Seton Hall +135 | Top | 77-79 | Win | 135 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
NIT Thursday Seton Hall Pirates Money Line +135 vs Indiana State Sycamores @ 7 ET - Both teams are playing very well and I do understand that this game being played in Indiana favors the Sycamores but it is not their home court. Indeed Indiana State is certainly much closer to Indianapolis than Seton Hall of course but I am mentioning all this because I feel we clearly have the value here with the dog on the money line. Why? Because what true justification do the Sycamores have for being favored here? Again, both teams are playing well but Indiana State plays in a Missouri Valley Conference whose other 20-win teams this season were Drake, Bradley and Belmont. Now take at look at the Pirates as Seton Hall plays in the tough Big East Conference. The other 20-win teams in the Big East include UConn, Marquette, Creighton, St John's and Providence. I am not at all knocking or fully writing off the accomplishments of Indiana State. I am just saying that when it comes to being battle tested by some of the toughest teams in the land, I feel the Pirates have the edge in that department and this will be key here! Both teams beat some quality teams in the NIT to get to this point but I am hanging my hat on the long-term here with the Pirates and the Big East competition they had to deal with all season long. In fact, other than two horrible downtrodden programs - Georgetown and DePaul, I would say the rest of the Big East (so I am talking about 9 teams!) is as tough as every single team in the Missouri Valley Conference. Give me the underdog here. No points needed. SETON HALL +135 |
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04-04-24 | Manchester United v. Chelsea OVER 3.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 105 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Rotation #200037: English Premier League Thursday OVER 3.5 +105 in Chelsea vs Manchester United @ 3:15 ET - Chelsea is on a long streak of high-scoring matches. Each of their last 5 matches across all competitions have gone over the total and all of them totaled at least 4 goals and averaged 5 goals apiece. With the defensive struggles the Blues have been having I look for Manchester United to get on the board multiple times in this match. Note also that Man U has had its own share of defensive struggles as well! Manchester United just allowed an insane 31 shot attempts in their match with Brentford and it was incredible that only 5 of them were shots on goal for the Bees and only 1 found the back of the net. In any event, Man U was outplayed in the 1-1 draw and more of the same likely on tap here in terms of conceding shots. Not only is Man U on the road, they also had allowed 2 goals per match in their 3 most recent matches prior to the 1-1 draw with the Bees. Chelsea twice blew a 1-goal lead to 10-man Burnley in a ugly display and I expect the Blues to respond with a strong emphasis on the attack here after not putting the hammer down against Burnley. The result will be plenty of goals here as Man U has plenty of attacking weapons as well but continues to have defensive liabilities of their own. OVER 3.5 +105 in Chelsea |
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04-04-24 | Sheffield United v. Liverpool OVER 4 | Top | 1-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Rotation #200041: English Premier League Thursday OVER 4 -120 in Liverpool vs Sheffield United @ 2:30 ET - Big total but Liverpool is going to open up the floodgates of a porous Blades defense in this one. The other noteworthy fact however is that Sheffield United is continuing to score goals quite well and the Reds have consistently been allowing goals in their matches. Clean sheets for Liverpool have been ultra rare and they are favored on the goal line at -3 goals in this one! That said, I am forecasting a 4-1 type final here and we cash in even on the bigger number of 4 in the marketplace on this one. 10 of Sheffield's last 11 matches have totaled at least 4 goals and those 10 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Don't let the big number on this total scare you away. Liverpool is on their home pitch and ready for a breakout performance after a low-scoring 2-1 win featured a lot of missed opportunities and followed a 4 match stretch in which the Reds scored an average of 4 goals per match. They get at least 4 here again and I projected at least a 4-1 final in this one. OVER 4 -120 in Liverpool |
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04-03-24 | Canucks v. Coyotes OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -118 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Arizona Coyotes vs Vancouver Canucks @ 10 ET - The Canucks will be ready to respond off the 6-3 loss at Vegas. However, Vancouver is in a B2B spot and the Canucks are still without #1 goalie Demko. The #2 guy DeSmith went last night and struggled as he gave up all 6 goals. Tonight it will be the #3 guy Silovs. Though he allowed just 2 goals in his only NHL start this season, it was last week against a Ducks team that has been struggling mightily. He has only played in 6 NHL games in his career and the Coyotes are known for being tougher on home ice. Also, Arizona has been scoring goals like crazy of late. The Coyotes have scored at least 5 goals in 3 straight games and also have averaged 4 goals scored in their last 8 games! Arizona continues to be hot and had won 5 of 7 games before a loss to a very strong Rangers team. The Coyotes continue to struggle defensively and in goal when facing playoff level teams. They have allowed 5 goals per game in their last 4 games against playoff teams. More of the same here and the goals fly in this one. OVER 6 in Arizona |
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04-03-24 | Magic v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 117-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday New Orleans Pelicans (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 8 ET - This line has dropped down a little from 4.5 to 3.5 and I like the value with the home team laying a short price. They have revenge from a loss at Orlando less than 2 weeks ago. That is actually one of the few wins that the Magic have over a quality opponent in many many weeks! If you look at Orlando's schedule, even though they have been hot overall, they have played a ton of bad teams. The Magic schedule has been friendly, to say the least, but that changes here. They are on the road and facing an angry revenge-minded team. The reason the Pelicans are not in a good mood is they are off B2B losses in addition to seeking revenge here. Very early this season New Orleans had a 5 games losing streak. However, from mid-November onward, the Pelicans have gone 5-1 SU when they enter a game off 2 or more consecutive losses. That said, strong odds on a response here from New Orleans even though they are still without Brandon Ingram. By the way, those 5 wins when in this situation included many double digit blowouts and the smallest margin of victory was a 7 point win. The Pelicans roll here. Home court, revenge and situational factors all are in favor of the Pelicans in this one. NEW ORLEANS (-) |
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04-03-24 | Cardinals v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
MLB Wednesday OVER 8.5 in San Diego Padres vs St Louis Cardinals @ 4:10 ET - The Padres have scored just 2 runs in each of the last two games - both losses - versus the Cardinals. However, they will take advantage of facing Zach Thompson here. The Cardinals southpaw has allowed 5 earned runs in 5.1 innings in his only start this season. He was rocked for 3 homers in that game. San Diego will see their bats wake up as a result in this one. Keep in mind the Padres scored an average of 8.6 runs in the 5-game stretch preceding that. The Cardinals have scored an average of 5 runs in their last 4 games and they should stay hot at the plate here as well. St Louis will take advantage of facing a struggling Joe Musgrove. The Padres right-hander has been hit hard in both his starts this season and has given up 9 earned runs in 8.1 innings. More of the same here and we take advantage of the rather low total posted here. OVER 8.5 in San Diego |
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04-03-24 | Aston Villa v. Manchester City OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 105 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rotation #200045: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City vs Aston Villa @ 3:15 ET - I am aware of the injury issues here that relate to each club but I am looking for City to be very aggressive on the attack after the cagey 0-0 draw in the big showdown with Arsenal this past weekend. It is not often that City gets shutout at home and I expect a very aggressive attack from the hosts in this one. That will force Aston Villa to be aggressive if they have any hopes of staying close to City throughout this match so, despite some injury issues, do not be surprised if Villa score well in this one too as Man City does have some injury issues impacting their defense as well. City was scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match this season prior to the scoreless draw with the Gunners. Aston Villa is averaging 2 goals scored per match this season. I am expecting a 3-2 or at least 3-1 type match here as City responds big but will also not deliver a clean sheet either. OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City |
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04-03-24 | Luton Town v. Arsenal OVER 4 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
Rotation #200009: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 -135 in Arsenal vs Luton Town @ 2:30 ET - Luton Town lost 4-3 versus Arsenal when they hosted them earlier this season. They also, despite injury issues, enter this match on a solid scoring run. Luton Town continues to give up goals in bunches but they also have scored in 18 straight matches! For a club that is threatened by relegation, that is an impressive result for sure. The problem for Luton Town is, even though they are averaging 1.4 goals scored per match this season, they have allowed 2.5 goals per match when away from home. Arsenal comes into this one off a frustrating scoreless draw with Manchester City so they will be in full-on attack mode here on their home pitch I am sure. Note that Arsenal has scored 2.4 goals per match this season and Luton has allowed 3 goals per match in last 5 EPL matches away from home. Arsenal is a heavy favorite in the goal line range of -3 and that makes sense to me as a 4-1 final would not surprise me in the least. Luton Town scores for the 19th EPL match in a row but they will not be able to stop the Gunners as the hosts will be on the attack throughout after a scoreless draw in the tough showdown with Manchester City. OVER 3.5 -135 in Arsenal |
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04-02-24 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
MLB Tuesday OVER 8 -115 in Oakland vs Boston @ 9:40 ET - A's were shutout yesterday but scored 11 runs in the 3 games prior to that and their 4-3 win is the only game this season in which totals runs have not reached an 8. I like the value because I like the Athletics bats to bounce back off the shutout loss just like they did with 4 runs in a 6-4 loss after they were shutout in their season opener. Also, the A's have allowed 7.6 runs per game this season and though I think they will hit Bello - he has a 4.35 ERA in his career. Also, Oakland will get hit as Wood struggled badly in his first start this season and he also has only had one decent season since his big years with the Dodgers ended all the way back in 2018. The Red Sox faced some tough Seattle pitching to open the season but will really get the bats going here in Oakland just like they did last night. OVER 8 -115 in Oakland |
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04-02-24 | Georgia v. Seton Hall OVER 145 | Top | 67-84 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday OVER the total in Seton Hall Pirates vs Georgia Bulldogs @ 9:30 ET - The Bulldogs and Pirates are both rolling and scoring well. Both teams allowing in the mid-70s as well this season when they are on the road and this one is in Indiana. Neutral site venue and again, away from home this season both teams have certainly not been strong defensively. Couple that with both teams coming in rolling with confidence on the offensive end and you have a solid match-up for expecting big points here. The Pirates have scored, not including OT of course, 78 ppg last 5 games. Also, Seton Hall has allowed 83 ppg in last 5 games away from home including 91 at MSG against the Red Storm. As for Georgia, they have scored 75 ppg last 6 games and allowed 76 ppg last 6 games. This one had mid 150s written all over it but we are dealing with a posted total in the 145 range so we will grab the huge line value here. OVER the total in Seton Hall |
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04-02-24 | Senators v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6 in Minnesota Wild vs Ottawa Senators @ 8 ET - Fleury getting the start for the Wild and he has struggled badly in each of his last two starts. Korpisalo starting for the Senators and he has been better of late but having a tough overall season and I look for plenty of goals here. This one has upset potential for Ottawa but Minnesota should score well at home also in this one. The Senators have won 5 straight games and scored an average of 4.2 goal during this hot streak. The Wild off a 2-1 OT loss at home but scored an average of 4 goals per game in their last 8 home games before that one. With that said, the goals should fly in this one. Minnesota had scored at least 3 goals in 6 of 8 home games before the loss to the Golden Knights. Ottawa off B2B low-scoring wins but this followed 7 straight games totaling at least 7 goals. More of the same here and great value with this total at 6 goals. OVER 6 in Minnesota |
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04-02-24 | Thunder v. 76ers +5.5 | Top | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Tuesday Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 7:30 ET - Joel Embiid is coming back and YES I do know that it is NOT tonight but just the fact he has been practicing with the team and is expect to see his first action on the Sixers upcoming road trip has the 76ers buzzing! They have been ultra competitive of late even without him and the 5.5 points (as of about 8 hours before tipoff) is definitely a solid value in this spot. Philadelphia has won 2 of last 3 at home and the lone loss was by a single point (to the Clippers) and the Sixers were robbed by a foul that wasn't called in the final seconds. The point is Philly could easily be 3-0 L3 at home. Also, their loss just before the 15-point win over Toronto was a defeat by just 3 points at Cleveland. So the Sixers are already gearing up for Embiid's return and they catch the Thunder at a great time for an upset. Oklahoma City is off B2B wins over Phoenix and then at New York (by 1 point) and they have a tougher match-up with Boston on deck. The Thunder might underestimate the Embiid-less Sixers in this one and Philly has great upset potential here with the way they match up with the Thunder. If they do lose, look for it to be by the slimmest of margins. Grab the points with the home dog. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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04-02-24 | Tottenham Hotspur v. West Ham United OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Rotation #200025: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3.5 +100 in West Ham United vs Tottenham @ 3:15 ET - Tottenham has scored an average of 2 goals in last 6 meetings between these clubs. I know this is a big total at 3.5 but last week the Hotspur match with Luton Town had a total of 4 goals posted and it should have got there. It was crazy that the match ended 2-1. Look for Tottenham to cash in more of their opportunities here but the Hammers will be tough also. Looks like West Ham will not have their #1 goalkeeper so that helps the over here. What also helps is that West Ham is on their home pitch and the Hammers have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 matches across all competitions. This looks like a match set up well to get to at least 2-2 and a 3-2 final is the type of match I am expecting here. Tottenham L9 road matches have averaged 4 goals and this one should get to at least that as well. OVER 3.5 +100 in West Ham United |
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04-02-24 | Crystal Palace v. AFC Bournemouth OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
Rotation #200013: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -130 in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace @ 2:45 ET - Crystal Palace has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches in EPL action. They have averaged 1.5 goals during this stretch. Also, Crystal Palace is off B2B draws but this followed 10 of 12 EPL matches totaling at least 3 goals! Take advantage of the low total of 2.5 goals here as Bournemouth scored at least 2 goals in all 4 matches last month. The over is a perfect 3-0 last 3 Bournemouth matches. OVER 2.5 -130 in Bournemouth |
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04-02-24 | Fulham v. Nottingham Forest OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham @ 2:30 ET - Due to the long-term low-scoring results in Nottingham Forest matches, we get line value here. The fact is that the aggressiveness of Fulham is not going to allow a low-scoring result here and we take advantage of the line value of this total at just 2.5 goals. Not only did the first meeting between these clubs end 5-0 Fulham, the last two meetings at Nottingham Forest have each totaled at least 4 goals. Also, each of the last 8 Fulham matches - all of them in February and March - have all totaled at least 3 goals! A perfect 8-0 run to the over that reaches 9 in a row once this match goes into the books! OVER 2.5 -115 in Nottingham Forest |
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04-01-24 | Celtics v. Hornets OVER 217 | Top | 118-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Monday OVER the total in Charlotte Hornets vs Boston Celtics @ 7 ET - The Hornets scored 118 points yesterday but also allowed 130! Charlotte is now hosting a Boston team off a low-scoring win but, prior to that win, the Celtics had allowed an average of 115 ppg (not including OT) in their 3 games leading into that one. Boston has been scoring well as they averaging 120.5 ppg (not including OT) in their last dozen games. Celtics have gone 10-2 in this stretch and will be willing to play at a faster pace and keep the scoring up against a downtrodden Hornets team. Charlotte has actually scored an average of 109 ppg in their last 12 home games. So don't be surprised if this game, given the above numbers, gets into the 120-105 range at least! That said, with this total in the 217 to 218 range as of early game day morning, there is no hesitation in getting involved here. OVER the total in Charlotte |
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04-01-24 | Islanders v. Flyers -113 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Monday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - Huge game in the post-season landscape and a divisional battle. I like the home ice edge here. Yes the Flyers are off an embarrassing 5-1 home loss to the Blackhawks but this followed having won 8 of last 12 games played on home ice. Conversely, the Islanders are not winning on the road. They truly are not winning anywhere right now. New York enters this one having lost 8 of 10 games overall and 5 of last 6 on the road. The Flyers stop the bleeding here and they are getting a little healthier on defense. They will also respond on the offensive side of the ice after a rare tough performance on home ice versus Chicago. This is a bargain price for home ice when you consider the Isles recent road struggles. Huge game, small price due to recent events and that means extraordinary line value with this one in the -115 range. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-01-24 | Avalanche v. Blue Jackets OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER the total in Columbus Blue Jackets vs Colorado Avalanche @ 7 ET - This total is at 6.5 and the over is priced in the -135 range but it should prove well worth it. The Blue Jackets have allowed 4.5 goals per game last 7 games. Columbus has averaged 3 goals scored in last 7 home games. Of course Colorado is a heavy favorite with good reason here. Look for a 4-3 or 5-3 type game. The Jackets will enjoy some success on home ice but will also struggle to stop this Avalanche freight train. Colorado has won 12 of 15 games and has scored 4 goals per game during this hot streak. The Avs have allowed an average of 3 goals in their last 5 away games. Non-conference match-up as well which generally means less defensive intensity. These teams see each other just twice a season. OVER the total in Columbus |
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04-01-24 | Reds v. Phillies -138 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -138 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
MLB Monday Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 ET - This is a value spot for the Phillies as they are in the -140 range on their home field. Philadelphia was red hot at home for the final months of the regular season and into the post-season last year before they got upset by Arizona in the NLCS. That said, they are undervalued here against a Reds team that is projected to be a .500 team this season. Christopher Sanchez is a scrappy southpaw that had a 3.44 ERA last season and really showed improvement in his 3rd MLB season. He was solid in a start against Cincinnati in 2022 and then it is an edge too that the Reds did not face him last season. Cincinnati is starting Andrew Abbott and last season he started well but then note he had an ERA above 6.00 in both of the final two months of the season - August and September. He seemed to carry those struggles right into this year as his spring training was rough. In fact, he is likely only starting because Williamson and Lodolo are currently out with injuries! Take advantage of this because in this spot we absolutely have the pitching edge and team edge and home field edge too of course. Lay it! PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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04-01-24 | Petrolul 52 v. Dinamo Bucuresti OVER 1.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 50 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
Rotation #206833: Romania Liga 1: Monday OVER 2 +100 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 1:30 ET - Petro has scored an average of 1 goal last 4 matches but also, prior to a 1-0 win in most recent action, Petro had allowed an average of 2 goals per match in last 3 matches. Dinamo has scored an average of 1.4 goals in last 5 home matches and scored at least 1 goal in all 5 of those matches. However, they continue to have struggles defensively and in goal. Dinamo has conceded 1.3 goals per match in last 10 matches. Points are critical in the table for each club and particularly for Dinamo because they need to defend their home pitch and are currently in a relegation spot. They can jump up to a much better position with securing the full 3 points here. Trouble is they can not stop Petro either. As a result, this one gets to at least a 2-1 final. OVER 2 +100 in Dinamo Bucuresti |
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04-01-24 | Roma v. Lecce OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rotation #201233: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Lecce vs Roma @ Noon ET - Both clubs have scored in each of the last 4 meetings between these clubs so look for the goals to fly here. Overall, 7 of the last 9 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals! Lecce has struggled of late but they do average 1 goal scored per match when at home. That said, they are also a dog here for good reason and Roma is likely to get multiple goals in this one. Lecce got a boost with the managerial change which was very recent. However, Roma also made a managerial change at the start of the year and they have been flying high ever since. Roma is 7-2-2 in last 11 matches. Also, the 1-0 win in their last match ended a streak of 9 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals! Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece so you can see why I like the value with this total here. Lecce will put up a fight on their home pitch but they will not be able to slow Roma down and the goals fly here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Lecce |
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04-01-24 | Udinese v. Sassuolo Calcio OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
Rotation #201229: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Sassuolo vs Udinese @ 9 AM ET - Sassuolo is allowing an average of 2 goals per match this season and Udinese is allowing 1.5 goals per match this season. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 4 goals and the 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Each of the last two meetings have been 2-2 draws and another result like that here would not surprise me in the least. Only 4 points in the table separate these two clubs with Sassuolo just below the relegation line and Udinese just above it. Both clubs pushing hard to earn the full 3 points in the table here and I can not foresee anything less than a 2-1 final here given all of the above. Take advantage of the plus money being offered here on the over at 2.5 goals in the market. OVER 2.5 +110 in Sassuolo |
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03-31-24 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 217 | Top | 135-120 | Win | 100 | 6 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Sunday OVER the total in Toronto Raptors vs Philadelphia 76ers @ 6:10 ET - The Sixers are a double digit favorite with good reason, of course, in this one. However, Philly has lost 5 of 6 games and has allowed 109 ppg during this stretch. That puts this one potentially at 120-109 given the 11 point spread on this one. I am not saying that happens of course but I am showing this is as an example of why we have some wiggle room here considering this total is in the 217 range as for 6 hours before tipoff. The Sixers need to take advantage of facing a weaker foe and get back into the win column and I look for them to push the tempo in this one. The Raptors have lost a dozen games in a row. In this 12-game losing streak they have allowed 119.4 ppg. Given all these numbers, the Sixers should get into the 120 range here but even if they fall to the 115 range the Raptors should score well enough on their home floor to get this one over the rather low total posted here. OVER the total in Toronto |
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03-31-24 | NC State +7.5 v. Duke | Top | 76-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday NC State Wolfpack (+) vs Duke Blue Devils @ 5:05 ET - This line is up to as high as a 7.5 as of 9 hours before tipoff and it is too much in my opinion. Seemingly every year a lower-seed team becomes the Cinderella in the tourney and goes on a magical run. This season that team has been NC State and I am not going to let this value-packed opportunity pass me by. Entering Sunday, there are 6 teams still alive for the National Championship and the one and only team seeded lower than a #4 seed out of all these teams is the Wolfpack team. Of course Duke is solid in their own right and they lost to NC State in the ACC Tourney. That makes this a revenge game but while revenge is a key motivator and can be very important in regular season settings, it truly does not mean a damn thing in post-season situations because who is not motivated in the post-season? The Wolfpack are just as motivated to have a shot at winning the national championship as the Blue Devils are. That said, I love the big dog line value here. Duke should not even be here. If Houston did not lose their start guard EARLY in the Sweet 16 match-up, the Cougars don't lose that game. That said, the Blue Devils luck might just run out here but if they do find a way to win I do not expect them to cover this spread. Give Duke credit for beating Houston of course but again that game could have an asterisk by it. Now consider that the two teams they played before that were James Madison from the Sun Belt and Vermont from America East. Again, I am just pointing out good fortune for the Blue Devils in getting to this point. As for NC State, they are on an 8-game winning streak and 6 of the wins were against major conference teams that all had at least 20 wins this season: Syracuse, Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Texas Tech and Marquette. Those are NOT easy teams to keep a winning streak going against so my point is that it is 100% NO FLUKE that the Wolfpack have made it this far. Sometimes a team just jells at the perfect time and becomes a team of destiny. That is the look and feel that this NC State team has this season. Again, maybe the magical run ends here but 8 of the last 10 losses for the Pack have been by single digits and, if they do fall short here, look for it to be by a very slim margin. The Wolfpack are loaded with confidence right now and all the pressure in this one is on Duke as they are expected to win. This makes for a dangerous underdog. The Pack are that dog and this one goes down to the wire. NC STATE (+) |
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03-31-24 | Chicago Fire v. Atlanta United OVER 3 | Top | 0-3 | Push | 0 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
Rotation #209933: Major League Soccer: Sunday OVER 3 in Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire @ 3:45 ET - Each of last 3 times Atlanta has hosted Chicago the match has totaled at least 3 goals all 3 times. Also, those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Additionally, Atlanta is off a 2-0 road loss but they have scored an average of 3 goals in their 2 home matches this season. Chicago has both scored and conceded in all 5 of their matches this season and each of their first 4 matches totaled at least 3 goals prior to last week's 1-1 draw. Even with that, Chicago has seen their matches average 4 goals apiece so far this MLS season and that is what I am expecting here. Look for a 2-2 type match in this one. OVER 3 in Atlanta United |
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03-31-24 | Ducks v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6 in Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks @ 3:37 ET - We get a low total here because Vancouver has not been scoring much lately and we will take advantage because the Canucks are going to be taking advantage too in this one! The fact is Vancouver is facing a struggling Anaheim team in the 2nd day of a B2B and that also has allowed 14 goals last 3 games! As for the Canucks, they are still without their #1 goalie. I know DeSmith has been playing well but Demko is the #1 for good reason. Also, Anaheim used their #1 guy - Gibson - last night so now they are likely going with Dostal here. Dostal is 16-32-5 with a 3.54 GAA in his NHL career! Anaheim has lost 11 of 12 games and given up 4.6 goals per game in the 11 losses! Vancouver is off B2B losses but, prior to this, had won 7 of 9 games. I know some metrics point to the under here but the Canucks are going to come out flying here and I am expect them to pile on the goals while an Anaheim team - certainly with nothing to lose - will do their best to play spoiler here. The result should be a high-scoring 5-3 type game. OVER 6 in Vancouver |
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03-31-24 | Steaua Bucharesti +103 v. Farul Constanta 1920 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 103 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #206849: Romania Liga 1 Play-off Sunday FCSB money line +115 @ Farul Constanta @ 2 ET - Last year Farul won the League Championship thanks to a comeback 3-2 win over FCSB in late May in a match in which FCSB flew a 2-0 lead. This season, FCSB has been the better club and they are still out for revenge from what transpired last May. FCSB went 1-0-1 in the regular season meetings with Farul so they have already gotten some revenge but in the Play-off phase of the season, this is the time they really wan to get their payback. Note that FCSB will be fired up on the road here as their last contest away from home was a rare ugly 4-0 loss. Their other 4 recent matches were all wins and, overall, FCSB has been strong on the road this season as well. Farul has played a little better of late but this club is still nowhere near the level of team they had last season. Farul is off a 2-1 win in Bucuresti against Rapid but this followed just 1 win in their last 7 games! In other words, this is a high value spot from a situational perspective and I look for FCSB to get some play-off revenge here! FCSB money line +115 |
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03-31-24 | Braves v. Phillies +123 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 123 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
MLB Sunday Philadelphia Phillies +120 vs Atlanta Braves @ 1:35 ET - All Star break 2022. What does that have to do with this game? Well the last time the Phillies got swept in a series of 3 or more games on their home field was against the Cubs in July of 2022 in Philadelphia's first series after the All-Star break. The point is that, on Sunday, the Braves are trying to do something no team has done since a season and a half ago! Chris Sale appears to be healthy but this is first real test in awhile after some ups and downs in the spring. Ranger Suarez was solid against the Braves last season including facing him twice in the post-season. Also, in his final 4 starts against Atlanta in 2022 he allowed a TOTAL of only TWO earned runs. Look for Suarez to have a strong start and Sale to struggle here and the Phillies finally get up off the mat after two rough games versus the Braves to start the new season. The first game the Phillies pen imploded then the second game Nola imploded. Look for the Phillies to bounce back here and we take advantage of the home dog value and bank on something NOT happening that has not happened in over a year and a half! PHILADELPHIA +120 |
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03-31-24 | Arsenal v. Manchester City OVER 2.5 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #200005: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 2.5 in Manchester City vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - This is a low total because it is a clash of titans at the top so many are expecting a tight defensive-minded struggle. In typical contrarian style, I am on the other side of what most are thinking about this match-up. As solid as these clubs can be defensively and in goal lets not forget that Manchester City scores an average of 2.5 goals per match at home this season AND Arsenal is the highest scoring road club in the league as they score an average of 2.5 goals away from home. That puts this match at a 3-2 type of match. I am not saying we get that here but I am saying that getting to 2-1 is certainly not asking too much! City is in a battle with Liverpool and Arsenal at the top of the table and the only way to surpass the Gunners is to win this outright and get the full 3 points. Each team is too potent in the offensive end of the pitch to be shutout in this one the way they are going of late. Couple that with City fighting hard for the full 3 points in the table - in particular because they are at home where they are so strong - and I just don't see this one ending with less than 3 goals! Yes I know these clubs had a 1-0 battle earlier this season. However, that was then and this is now and Arsenal has had 9 STRAIGHT matches in EPL action total at least 3 goals! OVER 2.5 in Manchester City |
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03-31-24 | Brighton & Hove Albion v. Liverpool OVER 3.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
Rotation #200001: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 in Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove @ 9 AM ET - Do not let the big total keep you away from this one. No team is higher-scoring on their home pitch than Liverpool this season. The Reds are averaging 2.7 goals scored per match as a host this season! As for Brighton, their road matches have averaged totaling 3.6 goals this season. Overall, on the season in all matches, Brighton has scored an average of 1.8 goals per game. Given these numbers, don't be surprised if we see a 3-2 type match in this one and we only need 4 goals to be a winner! Look for a shootout in this one with plenty of end to end action. OVER 3.5 in Liverpool |
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03-31-24 | Otelul v. U Craiova 1948 OVER 2.25 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 104 | 3 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Sunday OVER 2 -125 in FCU 1948 Craiova vs Otelul Galati @ 7 AM ET - Galati will respond off a 1-0 loss. This followed Galati both scoring and conceding in 5 straight matches. Those 5 matches averaged 3.4 goals apiece. Also, in terms of road matches for Galati, we are testing an UNBEATEN RUN of 5 straight matches totaling at least 2 goals. Those 5 matches averaged 3.6 goals apiece and 3 of the 5 totaled at least 3 goals so here we are testing a 3-0 run to the over going for 4 in a row in Galati road matches. As for FCU 1948 Craiova, they are also off a 1-0 loss but they have an incredible streak in home matches this season. All 15 of their home matches have totaled at least 2 goals and and averaged 4 goals apiece! So this streak is UNBEATEN in all 16 home matches this season and plus 10 of the 15 did total at least 3 goals so this one is testing 10-0 run. Excellent value with this total available at 2 goals. OVER 2 -125 in FCU 1948 Craiova |
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03-30-24 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | Top | 122-113 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Saturday Atlanta Hawks (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 7:40 ET - The Bucks will be without Lillard here while the Hawks could have Jalen Johnson back and he has been playing well. Speaking of playing well, Atlanta has been overall as they have won 4 straight including beating Boston twice! The Hawks have won 7 of last 8 home games while the Bucks are on the road and have some injury issues to deal with here also. Some guys are not 100% for sure. Also, Milwaukee has lost 3 straight road games and 5 of last 6. This is a high value home dog spot as the Hawks have been the hotter team of late plus they are the healthier team right now even though they remain without Trae Young of course. Dejounte Murray is off a 44-point game and has scored 28 points or more in 4 of his last 5 games. This is a classic case of long-term metrics getting too much credit compared to the true current situation. As a result, line value that is off the charts good as Hawks stay hot at home while the Bucks road struggles continue. ATLANTA (+) |
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03-30-24 | Blackhawks v. Flyers -1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
NHL Saturday Philadelphia Puck Line -1.5 vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 7 ET - Flyers are a heavy favorite on the money line here with good reason of course. However, the value is on the puck line where you get a -110 price by taking the Flyers to win this one by at least 2 goals. Of course, the Blackhawks season has been over for a long time while, conversely, Philly is fighting hard to secure a playoff spot. Philly has had a tough schedule of late but they let a good opportunity get away from them when they lost to the Canadiens at Montreal. That was a 3rd straight loss for Philly but now they are back at home where they have won 8 of 12 in this building. Also, Chicago has seen each of their last 8 losses come by at least a 2-goal margin and, amazingly, the Blackhawks have lost 26 of last 28 games! In other words, no hesitation in grabbing the Flyers here. PHILADELPHIA -1.5 |
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03-30-24 | Maple Leafs v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
NHL Saturday OVER the total in Buffalo Sabres vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7 ET - This total is a 6.5 across the board at the time of this posting and is offering solid value in a game I am expecting each team will get to 3 goals. Of course getting each team to 3 goals would translate to at least a 4-3 final. The Sabres off a 5-2 win last night but used Levi in goal which means it will likely be Luukkonen tonight and he has been struggling. That is a big part of the reason that 4 of last 6 Sabres games have totaled at least 7 goals. I expect this one will too. Also, the Leafs are starting Samsonov here an he injured his calf last weekend and has not played since. So he may not be 100% here and he has not exactly been consistent this season! Look for plenty of goals here as Toronto is off a 5-1 win but, prior to this, 6 of last 7 Leafs games totaled at least 7 goals. The Maple Leafs have scored an average of 4 goals in their 9 games. Also, their last road game was an under but that was at a very tough Carolina team. Prior to that, 6 of last 8 Toronto road games totaled at least 7 goals. More of the same likely here given the situation and the above. OVER the total in Buffalo |
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03-30-24 | Illinois +9 v. Connecticut | Top | 52-77 | Loss | -112 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Elite Eight Saturday Illinois Illini (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 6:09 ET - You knew it was only a matter of time before the upsets started rolling in finally. Sure enough, in the Sweet 16 round, the higher seeded team LOST 5 of the 8 matchups. Now, I am certainly not saying the Illini win this game outright but I would not be shocked if they did. Connecticut was the only higher seed to win their game in the 4 Thursday games. In the past 2 days we have seen two #1 seeds and three #2 seeds lose. Illinois is a very strong team on the offensive end. Of course it goes without saying that the defending champs are a sizable favorite here with good reason as they have earned it. However, the Illini - just like UConn - are a very efficient club on the offensive end. Illinois gets that high efficiency in part because they - again, just like the Huskies - score well both inside and outside. The key here is that keeps the pressure on Connecticut here as long scoring droughts are highly unlikely with this Illini team. Illinois has 8 losses this season but not a single one by double digits. For Connecticut to get the money they essentially have to win this game by double digits. Another I like about that is the fact it has been awhile since the Huskies were challenged. That was in a 5-point win over St John's in the Big East tourney. Another interesting thing about that is the line was nearly identical to this line. Are the Red Storm really as good as the Illini? No way! That said, the fact is we are getting an inflated line here because the Huskies have just steamrolled teams in 4 straight games since that tighter win over St John's. Lets take advantage of the line value available now in this one as a result! ILLINOIS (+) |
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03-30-24 | Braves v. Phillies +119 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
MLB Saturday: Philadelphia Phillies (+) vs Atlanta Braves @ 4 ET - This is a great home dog spot for the Phillies off a loss yesterday. Their bullpen failed them yesterday but don't judge a team on one game. The Phillies beat the Braves (again!) in the post-season last year and that including beating today's starter (Fried). The Braves southpaw is certainly a solid starter but this Philly lineup has had some success against him. As for the Phillies Nola, he has been known throughout his career for being tougher when he pitches at home. Also, he has allowed a total of only 4 earned runs in his last 3 starts versus the Braves. Fried allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits and 4 walks in just 4 innings when he faced the Phillies in October and that start was in Atlanta. It certainly will not get any easier now facing them in Philly. Grab the under-valued home dog in this one that is getting as high as +120 on the money line in some spots as of 4 hours before first pitch! We'll take it! PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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03-30-24 | Manchester United v. Brentford OVER 3 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Rotation #200197: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3 -115 in Brentford vs Manchester United @ 4 ET - Both teams have issues impacting their defense and both clubs have the attacking ability capable to take advantage. Brentford's last two matches hosting Manchester United each totaled 4 goals. Also, the Bees last 5 home matches in EPL action have gone 5-0 to the over and these matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece. Manchester United has averaged 2.2 goals scored in last 4 road matches in EPL action. Man U is set to respond here after losing their last away match in EPL action by a 3-1 count and I expect them to take advantage of a Bees club known for struggling in front of their own net. However, the Brentford trio of Mbeumo, Toney and Wissa should enjoy success on the attack as well and I look for an entertaining affair here that could be a 2-2 type match ending with a sharing of the spoils. Look for the over to improve to 6-0 in the Bees last 6 home matches in EPL action. OVER 3 -115 in Brentford |
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03-30-24 | Rapid Bucuresti v. CS U Craiova OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Saturday: OVER 2.5 -114 in Universitatea Craiova vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 3 ET - Universitatea Craiova has gone over the total in 12 of 13 matches! The only one that did not, ironically, was a 1-1 draw hosting this same Rapid club earlier this month. That said, take advantage of the line value here with this total available at 2.5 goals. Rapid has also been trending over with 7 of their last 10 matches totaling at least 3 goals. In fact, Rapid has scored an average of 2.2 goals last 10 matches. Universitatea Craiova has scored an average of 1.8 goals last 15 matches. These averages combine for an expected final totaling 4 goals here. That is what I am projecting as well yet we only need 3 to be a winner here. I like those odds! OVER 2.5 -114 in Universitatea Craiova |
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03-30-24 | Minnesota United v. Philadelphia OVER 3 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
Rotation #209881: Major League Soccer Saturday OVER 3 in Philadelphia Union vs Minnesota United @ 2 ET - Philadelphia's last 3 matches across all competitions have all totaled at least 4 goals. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 5 goals! Minnesota is currently leading the West and is playing very well but you can expect Philly to be strong on their home pitch as well. As a result, look for plenty of goals in this one! Minnesota scoring an average of 2 goals this season. Philly also scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. The over, including 2 road matches this season and their final 3 road matches last season is on a PERFECT 5-0 RUN when Minnesota is away from home. That high-scoring trend, per all of the above, certainly appears destined to make it 6 in a row! OVER 3 in Philadelphia |
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03-30-24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Aston Villa -159 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
Rotation #200194: English Premier League: Saturday Aston Villa Money Line (-) vs Wolverhampton @ 1:30 ET - I know that Wolverhampton has a history of giving Aston Villa trouble but this match is set up for a different outcome. Wolverhampton is dealing with some injury issues which will impact their attack. Aston Villa is angry off a 1-1 draw in EPL action and they also lost their most recent home match in EPL action by a 4-0 count against Tottenham. That kind of loss is an attention getter and they responded with a 4-0 shellacking of Ajax Amsterdam in Europa Conference League action in their next home match after that. Now this is their first home match in EPL action since the loss to Tottenham and that means Wolverhampton is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Arsenal has 10 wins at home this season compared to the Wolves having just 5 wins on the road and we have solid line value here with this moderately priced favorite. Lay it! ASTON VILLA money line (-) |
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03-30-24 | UTA Arad v. Universitatea Cluj OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -134 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Saturday: OVER 2 -135 in Universitatea Cluj vs UTA Arad @ Noon ET - Universitatea Cluj is undefeated last 4 matches and scored a total of 5 goals in the 3 victories. They also are seeking revenge for a 3-1 loss at Arad the last time these clubs met. UTA enters this one off another wild, high-scoring match! Not only was it the 3rd over in last 4 matches, all 3 of the overs have totaled at least 5 goals! More of the same expected here. Excellent value here with the low total as well. OVER 2 -135 in Universitatea Cluj |
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03-30-24 | Burnley v. Chelsea OVER 3 | Top | 2-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
Rotation #200173: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3 -135 in Chelsea vs Burnley @ 11 AM ET - The over is 4-0 last 4 Chelsea matches across all competitions and those 4 matches have averaged 5 goals apiece. The over is a perfect 5-0 L5 road matches for Burnley in EPL action and those 5 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Don't overthink it. The goals should fly in this one. Chelsea has truly been rejuvenated and is scoring very well over a long-term extended stretch now. Even Burnley is off B2B matches in which they scored multiple goals but their problem remains conceding too many goals and that continues here. Look for a 3-1 type match in this one. OVER 3 -135 in Chelsea |
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03-30-24 | CSMS Iasi v. Botosani OVER 2 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Saturday: OVER 2 -118 in Botosani vs Iasi @ 9:45 AM ET - Both clubs off shutout losses so a perfect spot for a bounce back. Speaking of perfect, the over is a perfect 6-0 the last 6 times Botosani has hosted Iasi. Generally speaking, Botosani tends to score better on their home pitch. Note also that Iasi had scored a goal in 4 straight road matches prior to last week's shutout defeat. Excellent value here with the low total as well. OVER 2 -118 in Botosani |
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03-29-24 | Creighton +3.5 v. Tennessee | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Creighton Bluejays (+) vs Tennessee Volunteers @ 10:10 ET - We saw 3 of the 4 lower-seeded teams in the 4 match-ups yesterday win outright. With this line now climbing as high as a 3.5 in some spots, it is go time with this one. The Volunteers are off that huge win over Texas which is, of course, where Vols coach Rick Barnes was head coach for years. Tennessee's Rick Barnes has a history of falling short of expectations and just like that non-covering win over the Longhorns, I expect another very tight game here. The Bluejays have a great shot at the upset but we will grab the points just in case. Creighton is also off a hard-fought win as they wree taken to double-OT by Oregon. That was a fortunate cover for me in that game but the fact is it also shows this could be a season that was "meant to be" for Creighton. The Big East is so tough and absolutely deserved more than 3 teams making the tourney. Note that all 3 teams are still alive with UConn winning yesterday and Creighton and Marquette playing today. Also, Seton Hall made the quarterfinals of the NIT and could win that tournament. I am not sold on the SEC like I am on the Big East as so many of the SEC teams got bounced early. I know that Alabama upset UNC yesterday but now don't be surprised if we see another upset involving the other SEC team left in the tourney today. I will grab the points just in case but remember also that Tennessee lost their final regular season SEC game and then immediately got bounced in the SEC Tourney. Just how good is this team really? They have since beat a MAAC school and yes they then beat Texas but the Horns were turnover-prone and it cost them the game. Note that Tennessee's last two games against Power 5 conference teams - Texas and Mississippi State - saw them shoot a combined 41 of 127 from the field including a paltry 11 of 58 from 3-point land. That will not cut it against sharp-shooting Creighton. The Bluejays plus the points is the value play here. CREIGHTON (+) |
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03-29-24 | 76ers +8.5 v. Cavs | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Friday Philadelphia 76ers (+) @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:40 ET - The Sixers are fired up after they were robbed by the refs at home against the Clippers and it cost them a win. Of course that does not mean they automatically bounce back with a SU win here. However, it does mean they will give a strong effort and that should be enough for at least the ATS cover in this one. They are getting 8.5 points as of about 6 hours before tipoff for this one and the Cavs seem over-valued here. Even if they get some players back for this one, the Cavaliers are truly a banged up team right now. Also, though the Sixers have been struggling they are competing hard and Cleveland has not exactly been lighting the world on fire of late. In fact, the Cavs have lost 7 of 10 games and 1 of the wins was by just 5 points. The Sixers are in this one all the way. Philly is only 3-4 SU last 7 games but 2 of the 4 losses by 7 or less points. Huge hungry underdog value here as 76ers come out firing on all cylinders after feeling they were dealt a bad break loss against the Clippers. The Sixers have won 2 of the 3 meetings this season and their only loss was by 3 points in overtime! Grab the generous points here. PHILADELPHIA (+) |
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03-29-24 | Gonzaga +5.5 v. Purdue | Top | 68-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
NCAA Friday Gonzaga Bulldogs (+) vs Purdue Boilermakers @ 7:39 ET - When these teams met earlier this season in the Maui Invitational, the Bulldogs led by 5 at the half. The problem for Gonzaga was they shot a ridiculous 6 of 32 from three point land. Given that number they should have lost the game by much more than just 10 points. This Bulldogs team is battle tested and they also faced UConn this season. Gonzaga will not be intimidated here and they have a solid 7-man playing rotation. Two of their top guys also ended up with 4 fouls in that prior meeting and that also impacted things. I look for the Bulldogs to be much stronger in the rematch and all the pressure is truly on Purdue here. The Boilermakers are a #1 seed and, as we saw yesterday, with so many strong seeds advancing, the higher seeded team is prone to upsets. 3 of the 4 games Thursday saw the lower seeded team win the game. I would not be surprised to see the underdog Bulldogs win this game outright but we will grab the points just in case as getting 5.5 here is a huge value for sure. GONZAGA (+) |
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03-29-24 | Devils v. Sabres OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
NHL Friday OVER the total in Buffalo Sabres vs New Jersey Devils @ 7 ET - The Sabres starting Levi most likely since Luukkonen struggled in the most recent game and Levi came on in relief and played well. However, overall Levi actually has a 3.48 GAA this season. Also, NJ likely starting Allen here and he has allowed 8 goals in his L2 starts. Also, he allowed 5 goals the last time he faced Buffalo (earlier this season when he was with Montreal). From a goalie standpoint, we can expect goals here. Also, take at look at these teams recent results. Devils have scored 4 goals per game in going 4-1 last 5 games. The Sabres off a low scoring loss but had scored an average of 4 goals per game in their 7 games prior to that. Buffalo has allowed 4 goals per game last 6 games. Look for at least a 4-3 type game here given all the above and this total is a 6.5 across the board right now. OVER the total in Buffalo |
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03-29-24 | CFR Cluj v. Sepsi OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -59.5 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1 Play-off Friday OVER in Sepsi vs CFR Cluj @ 2:30 ET - Sepsi matches have totaled at least 3 goals in 4 straight. So here were are testing a 4-0 run to the over that appears to be set up perfectly for a 5th straight winner. Sepsi has scored an average of 2 goals last 4 matches and CFR Cluj has scored an average of 2 goals last 11 matches. Also, the last 6 meetings between these clubs have all gone over the total as all 6 totaled at least 3 goals. This one will too and we take advantage of the +110 money line range on this over at 2.5 goals on a beautiful spring weather day in Romania. OVER in Sepsi |
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03-29-24 | Hermannstadt v. Voluntari OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Friday OVER in Voluntari vs Hermannstadt @ 11:30 AM ET - With this total available at just 2 goals, we have solid value on the over here. Not only is Voluntari off a 4-3 loss in most recent match, that was the 4th time in 5 matches that their match has totaled at least 3 goals. It was also the 2nd time in 3 matches that they have allowed 4 goals! As for Hermannstadt, they are off a 3-0 victory and it was the 2nd time in 3 matches that they have scored at least 3 goals. Also, both teams have scored in each of the last 3 meetings and also each of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and that includes 3 of them totaling at least 3 goals. So this is testing an unbeaten over run last 5 including 3 winners for a 3-0 mark. Look for tis one to make it 4 in a row. OVER in Voluntari |
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03-28-24 | Bucks -130 v. Pelicans | Top | 100-107 | Loss | -130 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Thursday Milwaukee Bucks (-) @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:10 ET - The Pelicans are still without Brandon Ingram. For the Bucks, their big guns are listed as probable for this game and so they are the healthier team in terms of top talent entering this match-up. Milwaukee off a double OT home loss to the Lakers. Note that the Bucks are 5-2 SU this season when off a home loss. Overall, Milwaukee enters this game on a 3-0 run when off a SU loss. The Pelicans are also off a loss but their bounce back is less likely. New Orleans is just 2-2 SU in the 4 games (including the one he got hurt) since Ingram was injured. Also, the Pelicans have lost 4 of 7 at home. The road team is actually 11-5 in the last 16 New Orleans games! The Bucks had won 11 of 15 before the home loss to the Lakers and this is the ideal spot for a bounce back as Ingram had 26 the last time these teams met and the Pelicans still lost the game by 24 points! MILWAUKEE (-) |
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03-28-24 | San Diego State +11 v. Connecticut | Top | 52-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday: San Diego State Aztecs (+) vs Connecticut Huskies @ 7:40 ET - The Aztecs have lost 10 games this season but only 1 was by a double digit margin. Now, of course, the Huskies are the defending champs and are a big favorite with plenty of reasoning behind it. However, the point is that this Aztecs team is a tough team too. They come from a Mountain West Conference that was very tough this season. Also, they have revenge here from losing the Championship Game to UConn last season. Note that, in that game, the Aztecs were down by just 5 points with about 5 minutes to go when the Huskies hit a big 3-pointer and then eventually pulled away for the win by 17 points. The point is that the game was not the blowout it might look like on the surface in terms of the final score. That experience in the Championship Game will do the Aztecs plenty of good here in the rematch. They have the full confidence that they can compete with this Huskies and, while it seems nearly everyone is practically considering Connecticut B2B champs already, I am not so sure. It is so tough to repeat and so many things have to go right and this Aztecs team can D up. So what happens if the shots are not falling for the Huskies and a tough defensive-minded team like San Diego State gets a lead and can play from in front? Not including OT points of course, the Aztecs have allowed an average of only 63 points last 15 games! The Huskies have a great D too and have allowed more than 67 points just twice in last 9 games but the point is the Aztecs are being a little undervalued here with this inflated number in the 11 range as of 12 hours before tipoff. This game is going to be a war and I expect it to be decided by single digits as a result. The Aztecs have good size on the wings and Jaedon LeDee has been a beast this season for them this season and he was only playing 19 minutes per game on average last season. He will be much more of a handful for the Huskies to contend with this time around! Grab the big points here! SAN DIEGO STATE (+) |
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03-28-24 | Clemson +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 77-72 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Thursday: Clemson Tigers (+) vs Arizona Wildcats @ 7:10 ET - Clemson is hot at the right time. The Tigers beat a solid New Mexico team and strong Baylor team to get here. I like what I have seen. Yes, Arizona is a tough team but this line is in the 7.5 range and looks like too much. Clemson's final 6 regular season losses were ALL by 7 or less points and, in fact, were by an average margin of defeat of just 3 points. Arizona lost 2 of 3 entering the Big Dance and then got a freebie by facing an outclassed Long Beach State in their first match-up. Though facing Dayton was then a tougher 2nd round match-up, note that the Flyers had 6 more field goal attempts in the game. Dayton was simply done in by an off-shooting night from downtown in that game. Note that Clemson has been hot from the field and has 4 guys averaging double digits in points so far in the tourney. Getting balanced scoring is key going up against a tough Arizona team and I like the fact that Chase Hunter has gotten particularly hot. His strong play at the guard position (15 or more points in 7 of last 9 games including 20+ so far in both tourney games) helps take some pressure off leading scorer PJ Hall. But Hall does combine with Schieffelin for solid frontcourt scoring while Hunter and Girard are getting it done in the backcourt. A balanced attack can hang tough with this Arizona team and the Tigers confidence is very high entering this match-up. It is not just coincidence that there are 4 ACC teams in the Sweet 16! At the same time, Arizona is the only team remaining from the Pac-12. Grab the points here! CLEMSON (+) |
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03-28-24 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs -170 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Toronto Maple Leafs Money Line (-) vs Washington Capitals @ 7 ET - This line is a little on the pricey side - in the -175 range - but there are two ways to look at that. One is that it may seem risky to lay a higher price but the other way to view is that normally the Maple Leafs would be at least a -200 favorite, if not -225 or -250, when on home ice against the Capitals. The reason we are getting line value here is because the Caps have been hotter of late and that is keeping this line a lower than we would otherwise see. Keep in mind, Toronto has hammered Washington by a combined score of 11 to 4 in their two meetings this season and that includes one last week. Also, the Leafs should get a boost here with Samsonov likely to be back between the pipes as he recovered from a leg contusion. He is 11-3-2 at home this season. For the Capitals, they enter this one on a 3-game winning streak but have only 1 winning streak of more than 3 games this season! When they enter a game off exactly 3 straight wins, the streak has ended in all but one case this season. Washington going 1-4 in this situation. Some of the recent wins for the Capitals have come against slumping teams or teams that will miss the post-season. Don't get me wrong, the Caps have been playing better but keep this in mind plus the Leafs are on home ice and angry off B2B losses. TORONTO (-) |
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03-28-24 | Blackhawks v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
NHL Thursday: OVER the total in Ottawa Senators vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 7 ET - Great spot for an over here. The Senators scored 5 first period goals at Buffalo last night and then were able to coast in for the victory in an eventual 6-2 win over the Sabres. Ottawa has now had 7 straight games total at least 7 goals! Amazingly, the Sens have either scored or allowed at least 5 goals in 6 straight games! The Blackhawks are off a rare, low-scoring win as they beat Calgary 3-1 but the Flames have quit on the season. That is not the case here as now you have two teams meeting that both are out of the post-season race but both are playing well of late and scoring plenty of goals. The Hawks and Sens are each just building for next season but sometimes that loose and relaxed late-season hockey can bring out the best in two teams scoring as they build for the future. Note that Chicago still has defensive struggles at times but is scoring an average of 3.5 goals per game during their current 6-4 run last 10 games. As for the Senators, they have won 6 of 9 games and averaged a respectable 3 goals not including OT/SO of course. Look for Sens games to MAKE IT 8 IN A ROW in terms of games getting to at least 7 goals! OVER the total in Ottawa |
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03-28-24 | Flyers -146 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -146 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
NHL Thursday Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) @ Montreal Canadiens @ 7 ET - Monday is April 1st and this NO April Fools joke ladies and gentleman ... the Flyers have NOT lost 3 straight games since January and YES they are entering this game off B2B losses! I don't see this streak coming to an end. The Flyers have been playing a brutal schedule of late and they know they must take advantage of a rare reprieve as they look to remain in the #3 spot in the Metropolitan Division. The Flyers have played 7 straight games and 9 of 10 games against teams that are going to be in the playoffs. Now they have a break in the schedule finally and face a team that is in the bottom of the Atlantic Division. Even though off of B2B wins, the Canadiens are still tied with the Blue Jackets for least home wins in the Eastern Conference. Home ice has been nothing special for the Habs and they are now playing their first home game after a long road trip and that first game after such a trip tends to be very tough more often that not. Montreal has lost 18 of last 26 on home ice. PHILADELPHIA (-) |
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03-27-24 | Clippers v. 76ers +6 | Top | 108-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Wednesday Philadelphia 76ers +6 vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 7:40 ET - I really want to take the money line here but the 6 points is certainly nice, added insurance but take a good look at this one because the SU trending is quite impressive! The Clippers are only 5-7 SU L12 games. Simply put, LA has just not been playing that well. This is especially true when you look at the teams they have beaten. They beat the Bulls twice but Chicago has a losing record this season. They beat the Blazers twice but Portland is a poor 19-53 this season. So the only other win must have been against a powerhouse, right? Nope, not at all. The other win was over a Rockets team that would not even make the play-in round of the post-season if the season ended today. All of this said, these struggling Clippers are now favored by a half-dozen points against a respectable Sixers team. Of course Philly is without Embiid and yes the Clips have revenge here for the loss to the 76ers in LA last week. However, this line is still far too high in my opinion. The 76ers are happy to be back home as they have played only two home games in the last 2 and 1/2 weeks and yes they won both games. Grab the points here as the value is with the home dog in this one. PHILADELPHIA +6 |
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03-27-24 | Bruins v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
NHL Wednesday OVER 6 in Tampa Bay Lightning vs Boston Bruins @ 7:35 ET - One could certainly argue for an under here as it is a key divisional battle and both teams have solid goalies. However, this clubs are also very potent offensively and I would not be surprised to see both Hedman and Point back on the ice for the Lightning tonight. Also, the Bruins are in the 2nd game of a B2B while the Lightning are off a long West Coast road trip. Given this situation neither club is likely to be ultra sharp in the defensive zone. However, each club is also loaded with playmakers and the Bruins have seen 6 of last 8 games total at least 6 goals. The Lightning have had 7 of last 9 games total at least 6 goals. Tampa Bay has scored an average of 4 goals per game during this stretch. Boston has scored 3.6 goals per game last 9 games. Look for each team to get to 3 goals in this one and that leads to at least a 4-3 final in this one. OVER 6 in Tampa Bay |
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03-27-24 | UNLV +5.5 v. Seton Hall | Top | 68-91 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
NIT Semi-Final Wednesday UNLV Runnin' Rebels +5.5 @ Seton Hall Pirates @ 7 ET - Certainly I respect the Pirates and, particularly at home, but this Rebels team is also strong and well-coached too - just like Seton Hall. What I particularly like about UNLV here is that they are on a 12-3 SU and 2 of the 3 losses were by just 3 points. Also, the 3 games included two losses to Nevada (NCAA Tourney team) and a loss to San Diego State (still alive in NCAA Tourney and facing UConn next). The point is that this Rebels team has been rock solid and is offering excellent underdog line value here. Remember they were 8-3 on the road this season. As solid as Seton Hall is, it took OT for them to get past an underachieving St Joseph's team in round one of this tourney. Also, the Pirates beat North Texas by 14 but the Mean Green had 5 more shots from the field. North Texas simply had an off shooting night. Give some credit to the Pirates defense of course but Seton Hall now faces a much tougher challenge here. Grab the underdog line value with a team that has played very well on the road this season. I like fading line moves too as this one has been moving toward the Pirates since the line came out. UNLV +5.5 |
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03-26-24 | Cincinnati +3.5 v. Indiana State | Top | 81-85 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NIT Tuesday Cincinnati Bearcats +3.5 @ Indiana State Sycamores @ 9 ET - Look at the two NIT match-ups today and you will notice something very interesting about the difference in the lines on the two games. As long-time followers know, I am a contrarian. When people see something off and jump all over it you will often find me, if I am on the game, absolutely on the other side of the masses. So, in this case, notice that Ohio State is hosting Georgia and the Buckeyes are favored by 8.5 in that one and have the better overall record plus a home record of 15-4 facing a Bulldogs team with a road record of 5-6. Now look at this game. Indiana State has a much better overall record than Cincinnati plus the Sycamores are 15-1 at home while the Bearcats are 4-7 on the road and yet this line opened up at 2.5 in most shops. Sure enough Indiana State is up to a 3.5 point favorite in this one and, for me, it is go time on this one! Whey in the world would the Buckeyes be 8.5 point favorites over Georgia today but the Sycamores opened up as only a 2.5 favorite over the Bearcats when you consider the home / road dominating variances involved in each match-up? Exactly! Don't let this line fool you. Cincy is the play here. Keep in mind, the Bearcats played in the ultra tough Big 12 this season and they are 15-2 in non-conference games with the only two losses to Xavier and Dayton. The Musketeers also made the NIT and the Flyers made the NCAA Tourney. Cincy is a tough team battle-tested and the Sycamores are certainly solid but this line is set "funny" for a reason and I love fading the masses. Road team in an upset is my prediction BUT will grab the value of the points just in case. CINCINNATI +3.5 |
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03-26-24 | Golden Knights v. Predators OVER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6 in Nashville Predators vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8 ET - The Golden Knights Hill is currently injured and the goalie did not travel with the team for this road trip. With Thompson starting last night at St Louis that means he either has to again in a B2B - unlikely and not easy - or little-used Jiri Patera gets the call. Patera has been with Henderson in the AHL and he has allowed an average of 4 goals in his only 4 NHL starts this season. As for Nashville, they are on a hot run an getting solid goalie work. However, the Predators have allowed an average of 4 goals per game in their last 5 meetings with the Golden Knights. In other words, don't be surprised if Vegas again scores well here as there are some match-up edges for them too. But the Preds should also stay hot and Nashville has scored an average of 4 goals in their current 15-2 hot streak. Don't be surprised if each team reaches the 3-goal mark in this one. OVER 6 in Nashville |
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03-26-24 | Devils v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
NHL Tuesday OVER 6.5 -115 in Toronto Maple Leafs vs New Jersey Devils @ 7:35 ET - Great spot for an over here. Toronto is off a 2-1 loss but that was at Carolina and followed 5 straight overs which averaged 8.6 goals per game. Now, back on home ice and ready to go hard after a low-scoring loss I fully expect the Maple Leafs to push the pace in this one! As for the Devils, they are off a 4-0 win but that was a rare shutout. In fact, New Jersey had allowed 3.5 goals per game over a 17-game stretch prior to that shutout win. Another interesting thing about the Devils is they have either scored or allowed 4 goals in 17 of their last 19 games. In other words, don't be surprised if we see at least a 4-3 type battle here. The Leafs had been trending over and the Devils have scored an average of 4 goals per game last 4 games but I also see them struggling to stop a Maple Leafs team that is angry off a loss. OVER 6.5 -115 in Toronto |
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03-26-24 | Poland v. Wales OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
Rotation #225609: Euro Champ Qualifying | Final Tuesday OVER 2 in Wales vs Poland @ 3:45 ET - Poland has some injury issues and that could open things up for Wales to attack the right-hand side. Also I like the fact that Wales is on their home pitch for this one. However, Poland comes in off off a huge high-scoring win - just like Wales - and I expect the boosted confidence to lead to plenty of attacking in this one. Poland has scored at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches and averaged 2 goals apiece during this unbeaten run. Wales has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and they have had 6 straight matches total at least 2 goals. We have excellent line value here with this total available at 2 goals. Wales has scored 2.3 goals per match last 6 matches but also allowed a goal in 4 straight matches. Poland has some issues at right-back so I can not anticipate them delivering a clean sheet here either. In fact, in Euro Champ Qualifying action, Poland has allowed a goal in 3 straight matches. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one given all of the above. OVER 2 in Wales |
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03-26-24 | Greece v. Georgia OVER 2 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Rotation #225601: Euro Champ Qualifying | Final Tuesday OVER 2 in Georgia vs Greece @ 1 ET - Georgia will get a boost with the return of Kvaratskhelia for this one plus they are on their home pitch. However, as hot as Georgia has been in terms of scoring goals on their home pitch, Greece comes into this one rolling large after a 5-0 win over Kazakhstan! Georgia has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches. Even though that included some weaker foes too, it bears mentioning that Georgia has scored multiple goals in 4 straight matches on their home pitch! This is a confident group here hosting but the confidence level of Greece in this key final qualifying match is also sky high! Greece has scored at least 1 goal in 5 of 6 matches and has averaged 3 goals scored per match in those 5 matches in which they have made the net ripple. Like Georgia, it is has included some weaker competition but also Kazakhstan had truly been playing well before Greece shredded them. Also, this was on the heels of an impressive 2-2 draw with France. The value of an over 2 here is certainly huge and I just can not see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final given the current level of play of both of these clubs. OVER 2 in Georgia |
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03-25-24 | 76ers +9.5 v. Kings | Top | 96-108 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Monday Philadelphia 76ers +9.5 @ Sacramento Kings @ 10 ET - Yes, the Sixers are in a B2B spot but they have momentum on their side after knocking off the Clippers last night in LA. Also, they only had two players go big minutes in that game so this Philly team will not be as worn out as one might expect in a B2B. Additionally, Sacramento just got back from a trip back east. Yes, the Kings were off yesterday but they had a lot of travel including coming all the way back from Orlando. Also, if you look at the long-term trending of the Kings this season, they do not have a history of blowing teams out. They are only 18-15 SU last 33 games and many of those wins by a single digit margin. In fact, only 9 times in last 33 games have the Kings won the game by double digits. I like this hungry Sixers team in this spot to stay within the inflated number. They have the shooters to hit enough shots from outside to stay within striking distance of Sacramento throughout this game. PHILADELPHIA +9.5 |
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03-25-24 | Golden Knights v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NHL Monday OVER 6 in St Louis Blues vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8 ET - This should be a great battle with the Blues having won 6 of 7 games and scoring an average of 4 goals per game during this hot streak. This is a key game in the playoff race and though that might lead you to expect a defensive-minded playoff battle, that is just not likely the way these teams are trending of late. Note that 4 straight St Louis games have totaled at least 6 goals. Also, the Golden Knights have won 5 of 7 games and averaged 4 goals scored per victory in those 5 wins and overall they are averaging 3.5 goals last 7 games. I see strong odds on each team getting to at least 3 goals here which would, of course, lead to at least a 4-3 final if each team does reach the 3-goal mark. The Golden Knights have seen 11 of 15 games total at least 6 goals and 10 of the 11 totaled at least 7 goals! More of the same expected here. OVER 6 in St Louis |
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03-25-24 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Tarleton State -5 | Top | 73-72 | Loss | -114 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
CIT Semi-Final: Monday Tarleton State Texans -5 vs IPFW Mastodons @ 7 ET - This is the match-up I wanted and so I am getting involved in this one with a best bet. IPFW was "okay" this season but they still finished in the bottom half of the Horizon League as they finished 7th in the 11-team league. The Mastodons are decently offensively but how well will their shots fall on the road here? Also, IPFW is not good defensively. The Texans, therefore, hold a big defensive edge in addition to also having the home court edge. Also, Tarleton State finished 2nd in the 11-team WAC and the team they finished behind was Grand Canyon. Yes, that same Grand Canyon team that just beat St Mary's in the NCAA Tourney plus would have also upset Alabama were it not for a horrific shooting effort including just 2 of 20 from three-point land! So the point is we have value here with Texans laying a very reasonable number at home in this one. They went 13-3 at home while IPFW went 9-7 on the road this season. Also, 9 of the 12 Mastodons losses this season were by at least 6 points and this one will be too! TARLETON STATE -5 |
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03-25-24 | Racing Ferrol v. Albacete OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Rotation #202089: Spanish La Liga 2: Monday OVER 2 -125 in Albacete vs Racing Ferrol @ 3:30 ET - Each of last 4 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and have averaged 4 goals apiece. When these clubs met earlier this season it was a wild 5-4 win for Racing Ferrol. They are now the visitors in the rematch and they have had 4 straight matches total at least 2 goals and these 4 have averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Albacete, they are out for revenge here and they also have been trending to the over. Albacete has had 5 straight matches total at least 2 goals and these have averaged 3 goals apiece. The over is a perfect 3-0 for each club in their matches this month so we are testing trending that is 100% x 2 in the month of March. Grab the value of the low total here with this one available at 2 goals making it a solid investment opportunity. OVER 2 -125 in Albacete |
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03-25-24 | Gimnasia Mendoza v. Almirante Brown OVER 1.75 | Top | 0-0 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #210601: Argentine Nacional B: Monday OVER 1.75 -135 in Almirante Brown vs Gimnasia Mendoza @ 3 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and these 5 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Almirante Brown has seen each of last two home matches total at least 2 goals and they have scored 3 goals in those matches. They should get on the scoreboard again here at home but Gimnasia Mendoza has been trending over this season with each of last 6 matches totaling at least 2 goals. Those 6 matches have averaged 3 goals and each of last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals so this one testing an over run that is a perfect 4-0. Grab the value of the low total here. OVER 1.75 -135 in Almirante Brown |
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03-24-24 | Yale v. San Diego State OVER 128.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday OVER 128.5 in San Diego State Aztecs vs Yale Bulldogs @ 9:40 ET - While I certainly respect the Aztecs defense, I also respect a Yale team that seemingly can hang tough with most anyone. Remember early in the season they faced Gonzaga when the Bulldogs were #11 in the country and faced Kansas when the Jayhawks were #2 in the country. Those games each totaled at least 135 points and the Bulldogs scored an average of 65.5 ppg in those 2 games. San Diego State is favored by 5.5 points at the time of this write-up. So that puts this game in the 71 to 66 range which is nearly double digits above the total if the Bulldogs perform as they have against other strong teams. In fact, they also scored 65 against a Vermont team that made the tourney and, of course, just scored 78 against a #4 seed Auburn in their upset of the Tigers. This is a confident Ivy League club that can hang tough in this game. At the same time however, with all the talk about the Aztecs D, this San Diego State team can score quite well also. When they faced ranked opponents in the regular season - Utah State twice and Gonzaga once - the Aztecs averaged 84 ppg and won all 3 games! Now they just scored 69 games in beating UAB to advance to face the Bulldogs. Also this is the type of match-up (expected to be a rather tight margin late) that often results in late fouling and quick threes at the other end. Essentially some "scramble points" if needed. However, I expect a solid winner here without the "scramble points" as this one is destined for at least the 130s based on the above. OVER 128.5 in San Diego State |
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03-24-24 | Lightning v. Ducks OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 -115 in Anaheim Ducks vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 8:35 ET - Jonas Johannson has not played in goal for Tampa Bay in a month! But that is because they had no B2B games. Now they do and that means either Andrei Vasilevskiy back in goal tonight (he faced the Kings yesterday) or Johansson. So the options are a tired #1 goalie or a rusty #2 goalie. That sets this up well for an over. Tampa Bay has been scoring very well and a struggling Anaheim can not stop anyone. However, the Ducks should score some here considering the goalie situation of TB as well as the B2B spot for them. Note that Anaheim is off a 4-0 win over Chicago but had allowed 5 goals per game in their 7-game losing streak that preceded that and now they face an angry Bolts club here. Tampa Bay has seen 7 of last 8 games total at least 7 goals as they continue to score well. The Lightning have allowed at least 3 goals in 4 of last 5 road games. Tampa has scored 4.5 goals per game last 8 games. The goals will fly in this one. OVER 6.5 in Tampa Bay |
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03-24-24 | Grand Canyon +6 v. Alabama | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
NCAA Sunday Grand Canyon Lopes +6.5 vs Alabama Crimson Tide @ 7:10 ET - It is unlikely that A & M tops Houston as a double digit dog today. That said, it would not surprise me if Tennessee is the last team standing from the SEC entering the Sweet 16. Yes, another upset win for Grand Canyon is not out of the question here but we will grab the points as added insurance just in case. The fact is that the SEC was over-rated this season and we have seen that play out time and time again in this tourney. Even though the Vols are still standing they are just 1-1 ATS in the tourney after barely sneaking by Texas last night. As for the Crimson Tide they had lost 4 of 6 games before knocking off Charleston to open up the tourney. Yes, they won by double digits but they allowed 96 points to a Coastal Athletic Association team! Conversely, Grand Canyon enters this game having won 6 straight and 30 of 34 this season. Though they come from a weaker conference, I like the fact the Lopes put up an average of 75 ppg in their 4 games versus respectable non-conference foes like San Francisco, South Carolina, San Diego State and now St Mary's to begin the tourney with an upset. Also, they allowed just 71 ppg in those 4 games and one has to have a little concern over Alabama's lack of D in their opening win! Yes, the Tide can score well but they have allowed an AVERAGE of 94 ppg last 11 games! There is nothing "average" about that and this Lopes team has proven they can compete with teams from stronger conferences. This goes to the wire and an outright upset would not shock me in the least! GRAND CANYON +6.5 |
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03-24-24 | Panthers v. Flyers +135 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
NHL Sunday Philadelphia Flyers +135 vs Florida Panthers @ 6 ET - The Panthers are banged up and have lost 4 straight games! Florida has been outscored 16 to 6 during this stretch. Florida is overvalued here against a scrappy Flyers team that continues to battle to remain in a playoff position and got the win again over a tough Bruins team yesterday! Philly has enjoyed recent success against the Panthers too including winning both games this season. With Florida dealing with injuries and negative emotions while the Flyers are winning and have positive vibes stemming from winning 5 of last 7 on home ice. PHILADELPHIA +135 |
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03-24-24 | Oilers v. Senators OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
NHL Sunday OVER 6.5 -120 in Ottawa Senators vs Edmonton Oilers @ 6 ET - The Sens off a big 5-2 win at New Jersey and are tougher team when on home ice and should score well again here. The Oilers are also in a B2B situation but they lost 6-3 at Toronto last night. Edmonton had that great winning streak earlier this season but really have reverted back to their old ways more recently. That is, they still score quite well but continue to allow too many goals. The Oilers have allowed 3.1 goals per game last 23 games since their 16-game winning streak came to an end. The Senators had allowed 4 goals per game last 13 games before the 5-2 win last night. 5 straight Sens have totaled at least 7 goals and you can see why I am expecting today's game to follow suit as well. OVER 6.5 -120 in Ottawa |
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03-24-24 | Elche v. Levante OVER 2 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Rotation #202081: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Levante vs Eiche @ 1:30 ET - I like the odds of this match getting to 2-1 at least. Note that the last 3 times Levante has hosted Eiche each match totaled at least 2 goals and 2 of the 3 reached the 3 goal mark. Excellent line value here with this total available at 2 goals. Eiche is running hot right now and has won 4 straight matches and scored an average of 2 goals per match during this heater. They will not slow down here on the road but you also know that Levante is going to put up a fight on their home pitch. Note that Levante has scored 4 goals last 4 matches and they are at a critical position in the table so they really could do well to earn the full 3 points here. Entering Sunday's action, Levante is one of 7 clubs with between 44 and 49 points in the table. Knowing that Levante is going to struggle to stop a red hot Eiche side yet at home and at a critical stage the season, I see quite an attack from both clubs materializing in this one and an eventual 2-1 type match. OVER 2 -120 in Levante |
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03-24-24 | Colorado +4 v. Marquette | Top | 77-81 | Push | 0 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
NCAA Tourney Sunday Colorado Buffaloes +4 vs Marquette Golden Eagles @ 12:10 ET - I am going to keep riding the Buffaloes. As I have stated in my recent write-ups, once they finally started winning road games their confidence sky-rocketed and they have carried that with them ever since they got on the late-season run following a much-needed road win. Colorado has never looked back and has now won 10 of 11 games. Now, of course, Marquette is a rock solid team. However, all the pressure is on them here as the #2 seed facing a #10 seed. Also, the Golden Eagles had lost 3 of 6 before the win over a #15 seed Western Kentucky team. It is certainly true those losses for Marquette were against top teams as it included #1 UConn and a ranked Creighton team as well. However, what I like about the Buffaloes is they have been so strong with shooting from all over the floor of late. They are playing with a ton of confidence and they are the stronger rebounding team. A big edge on the glass could also end up being the edge that decides this game. No points needed most likely but if the game is ultra tight late and swings the way of Marquette, the 4 points could come in handy. The Golden Eagles are known for being a solid shooting team but the Buffaloes are knocking down 3's nearly as well as any team in the country on the season. Also, Colorado is the better team at the free throw line too which can be a key in tight games when in tourney time like this especially. The points are quite generous considering all of the above. COLORADO +4 |
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03-24-24 | SD Eibar v. Real Valladolid OVER 2 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Rotation #202069: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Real Valladolid vs Eibar @ 11:15 AM ET - I like the odds of this match getting to 2-1 at least. Note that these two clubs have the fewest draws in the league this season with 6 and 7, respectively. Their blended draw rate, as a result, is only 21% as a result and that is very low for this league. Can we expect each club to score though? Absolutely! Real Valladolid is averaging 1.13 goals scored per match and Eibar is averaging 1.55 goals scored per match this season. Eibar is one of the top scoring clubs in the league plus each club is allowing 1 goal per match this season. This one has 2-1 written all over it. Real Valladolid has had 5 straight matches total at least 2 goals. Eibar has had their last 4 matches average 2.5 goals apiece. Also, the last 8 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 2 goals and the matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and 4 of them did reach at least the 3-goal mark. So this play, with the total at 2 goals, is testing a match-up run that is UNBEATEN last 8 and also PERFECT 4 in terms of winning overs! That run reaches 5 in a row here! OVER 2 -120 in Real Valladolid |
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03-24-24 | Gijon v. Amorebieta OVER 2 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
Rotation #202065: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 in Amorebieta vs Gijon @ 9 AM ET - Both clubs have scored in each of the last 3 meetings so we should get this match to 1-1. But what about the odds of a draw? Well, this clubs have a blended draw rate of only 30% this season. The odds favor at least a 2-1 final given the above plus the fact Gijon has gone 4 straight matches without a draw and Amorebieta has gone 3 straight matches without a draw. OVER 2 in Amorebieta |
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03-23-24 | Oregon v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 73-86 | Win | 100 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
Rotation #794: NCAA Tourney: Saturday Creighton Bluejays -4.5 vs Oregon Ducks @ 9:40 ET - As I mentioned in my pick on Oregon over South Carolina, the Ducks have a great head coach and they had a huge coaching advantage in that game. However, now they take on a Bluejays team that also has an excellent head coach. Both Dana Altman and Greg McDermott are veteran coaches with a helluva winning track record long-term. In fact, Altman used to coach at Creighton and was there for a long period from the mid-90s through 2010. So what does this match-up come down to? Well, there are big edges for Creighton in this one as they have a cohesive group of players that have multiple seasons of experience together. That pays off in tougher match-ups like this one. As for Oregon, they rely heavily on a trio of guys that include a freshman plus a senior that played his first 3 years at South Carolina. Now Couisnard is off the huge game versus his former team but again, he and Shelstad and Dante don't have quite the same level of cohesiveness that this Bluejays team has with their guys having all played together for multiple seasons. That creates a bond in big game situations that does make a big difference. I also like the rebounding edge going to Creighton in this match-up as well. The seeding for these tournaments is not easy and is often debated but the fact is they do, for the most part, a damn good job. That said, a #3 seed laying just 4.5 points to a #11 seed is quite a solid value. It is not a mistake as the Ducks are on everyone's radar right now after the Pac-12 Tourney run but, the point is, it has created value in the marketplace. Here we take advantage! CREIGHTON -4.5 |