Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-16 | Coyotes v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -101 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Game #55/56 Sunday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in New York Rangers vs Arizona Coyotes @ 7:05 ET - Both clubs have a goaltending "issue" here and that makes this the perfect set-up for an over. The Rangers used Henrik Lundqvist in net last night so that means this start goes to the back-up or it is a tough back to spot for the Rangers #1 netminder. As for the Coyotes, their #1 goalie (Mike Smith) is currently out with an injury. This has certainly played a key role in the fact that Arizona has allowed 4.5 goals per game so far this season. Though the Coyotes haven't played as well in the offensive zone, they are rested and ready to attack today after yesterday's off day and they are catching the Rangers at an ideal time. Not only is this is a tough back to back for New York but this is a definite flat spot for them. The Rangers badly wanted that win over the division rival Capitals yesterday and they also now face a non-conference team they have dominated in recent meetings. In other words, there are no motivational reasons for the Rangers to bring a strong defensive effort to the ice Sunday and I expect each team to notch at least 3 goals in this one. Keep in mind, Arizona is averaging 3 goals per game on the young season despite some recent struggles on this road trip and the Rangers have scored at least 4 goals in three of their five games thus far on the season. The over is 3-1 in Coyotes games this season and 3-1-1 in Rangers games this season. Look for these trends to continue a spot that is truly a fantastic situation for another high-scoring game to break out. Non conference game, the better team off of an emotional win now looking to relax, the weaker team coming in rested but with goalie issues, etc. 10* OVER 5.5 in New York Rangers Sunday |
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10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #474 Sunday - 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 vs New England Patriots @ 4:25 ET - Yes, the Patriots are off of back to back dominating wins since Tom Brady returned. However, those teams are a combined 2-10 on the season. Yes, the Steelers are without Ben Roethlisberger today. However, they are also a quality team that was 4-1 this season before he got hurt during the loss at Miami last week that dropped Pittsburgh to 4-2 on the season. The point is that this is still a quality Steelers team and QB Landry Jones has had ample time now to prepare as the starter for this game. After their first loss this season the Steelers responded by blasting the Chiefs 43 to 14. Granted, the Patriots certainly are not the Chiefs but, keep in mind, the Steelers don't have to blast the Pats to get the money for us here. In fact, they don't even have to win the game. All they have to do is remain competitive throughout this game and I absolutely see that happening after last week's embarrassing loss. The Steelers overall numbers on defense do not impress but they have certainly shown a lot of "bend but don't break" D this season. That is why Pittsburgh has allowed 16 points or less in all 4 of their wins! The Steelers normally are at their best against quality opposition and, in fact, have gone 12-3 SU in their last 15 games against teams with a winning record. The Patriots win at Cleveland two weeks ago was the first time they've covered as a favorite of more than 4 points in a road game against against an AFC foe in quite some time. Their record in that situation is now 1-7 ATS their last 8 and this is a large spread for the Pats on the road against a quality AFC opponent. The Steelers are undervalued here. Grab the home dog. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS |
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10-23-16 | Chargers v. Falcons -4.5 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -113 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
Non-Conf NFL Game of the Year - Rickenbach NFL Game #470 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons -4.5 vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:05 ET - The Falcons continue to be under-valued and this is a another nice spot to back them as they are hungry off of a tight loss. I rode Atlanta against last week, after having them the week before in their outright win at Denver, and the Falcons were robbed on a late non-call that should have been a penalty. Atlanta still got the cash for me but that cost ATL the outright win. Still, the good news is that means the Falcons will be extra hungry this week and they have covered 5 in a row. I have ridden Atlanta with either a star rated pick or free pick each of their last 4 games so I have been in on a good portion of this hot streak and I see no reason why it won't continue here. The Chargers are off of a huge upset win over Denver and that could leave them flat here. They've lost 8 of their last 9 games with the Falcons and they've also lost 10 fumbles already this season. San Diego has trouble closing out games and Atlanta is the #1 offense in the league. I just don't see the Chargers being able to keep up in this one as they've averaged 3 turnovers per game the last 4 weeks and the Falcons have only averaged 0.83 turnovers per game on the season! Atlanta's strength, Matt Ryan and the passing attack, goes right at the heart of the Chargers main weakness which is pass defense. The Chargers are on a 1-5 ATS run when playing away after a Thursday game and this is also a tough trip as it is an East Coast trip to a non-conference foe and the situation is made even tougher after coming off of a big divisional home win. I don't expect the Chargers to have much left in the tank to match the high emotions of a Falcons team that is still steaming mad from what happened last week. 10* ATLANTA FALCONS |
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10-22-16 | Washington State v. Arizona State OVER 63.5 | Top | 37-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
Pac 12 Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #363/364 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER in Arizona State Sun Devils vs Washington State Cougars @ 10 PM ET - The Sun Devils are off of a disappointing effort on the road as they scored just 16 points last week. However, this is a team that averaged 54 points per game in their first three home games this season before struggling some against a tough UCLA defense in a 23-20 win two weeks ago. Arizona State will take advantage of home field and facing a mediocre Washington State defense to put up some huge points on the board Saturday. The Cougars recent defensive numbers look better but, keep in mind, they faced the struggling offenses of Stanford and UCLA. Prior that, against Oregon and Boise State and Eastern Washington, the Cougars allowed an average of 36 points per game. While there is no questioning the fact that neither one of these teams is particularly stellar on defense, the offenses are very dynamic (Sun Devils QB Manny Wilkins now healthy). Washington State is averaging 501 yards per game on the season! The Sun Devils are averaging 459 yards per game at home. Washington State is on a 16-9 run to the over in games where they are favored in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arizona State, in home or neutral site games against FBS teams, with a posted total of 60 or more, is on a perfect 5-0 run to the over. The Cougars are on a 4-2 run to the over in their last 6 road games. More of the same on Saturday. 10* OVER in Arizona State |
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10-22-16 | Ole Miss +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFB Game #399 Saturday - 10* Top Play Ole Miss Rebels (+) @ LSU @ 9 ET - LSU is in a perfect "play against" spot here. The Tigers certainly have revenge on their minds as they lost badly at Ole Miss last year. However, LSU is simply overvalued in this spot. They have gone from being a 4 point favorite to laying more than a TD in this match-up and that is offering great value to the talented underdog in this match-up. There is a lot of chatter about how great LSU has played since they fired Les Miles after losing to Auburn. However, the Tigers have played only Missouri and Southern Miss since the dismissal of Miles. Missouri is 0-3 in SEC action and has one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Southern Miss is a CUSA team that, other than wins over an FCS school and a 1-6 UTEP team, has allowed 40 points per game in their other 5 games! Ole Miss certainly does not have a great defense but they have forced 7 turnovers in their past three games and the Rebels do have a dynamic offense. This combination has helped lead the way to a 3-2 run their last 5 games and the two losses each came by 5 points or less and one of those was to #1 ranked Alabama. The point is that the Rebels can hang with anybody and I am not convinced that LSU is "back" just because they beat up on two over-matched opponents. Ole Miss is on a 6-2 ATS run as an away dog and 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams have been decided by 7 points or less. The Rebels are also a PERFECT 6-0 ATS when they are an underdog in a game following a SU loss. After losing to Arkansas last week, the Rebels get the job done this week. 10* OLE MISS |
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10-22-16 | Maple Leafs v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Game #5/6 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Chicago Blackhawks vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 7:05 ET - The Blackhawks will be fired up off of a loss at Columbus last night. While I expect Chicago's offense to respond after scoring only 2 goals last night, the goaltending could be a problem here as the Hawks will likely have to start back-up Scott Darling since this is the 2nd night of a back to back. The Maple Leafs, no matter whom they start and no matter the situation, are going to have a goaltending issue. Simply put, Toronto is having trouble keeping pucks out of their own net but, the Maple Leafs offense certainly is making some noise early this season. The Leafs were held under 4 goals for the first time this season in their loss at Minnesota Thursday. However, the over is still 2-1 in their 3 road games this season and they're taking on a Blackhawks club that is 3-0 to the over in their home games this season. Chicago has scored 12 goals in their last TWO home games but the Hawks are allowing an average of 4 goals per game at home on the season. Chicago has scored 11 goals in their last two games against Toronto and the Maple Leafs are much stronger on offense this season with an infusion of young talent. That said, look for a wild one here. The Blackhawks home games have all totaled at least 7 goals and the Maple Leafs first two road games this season each totaled 9 goals. I don't see any reason that we can't get to at least 6 here. 10* OVER 5.5 in Chicago Saturday |
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10-21-16 | Predators -108 v. Red Wings | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
NHL Network Smash - Rickenbach NHL Game #55 Friday - 10* Top Play Nashville Predators Money Line (-) @ Detroit Red Wings @ 7:35 ET - The Predators are a team on the rise and the Red Wings are a team on the decline. Detroit hopes to return to those glory years soon but they truly have lost some of their mojo with barely sneaking into the post-season last year after many years of big success. As for the Preds, the deal for PK Subban is part of a push that Nashville feels can push them closer to the ultimate prize and this team, off of back to back losses, is not a team that anyone would want to face. Adding to the motivation for the Predators is the fact that they not only lost both games to Detroit last season, the Red Wings got the best of them with winning both match-ups the prior season as well. Nashville is hungry to finally notch a win over the Red Wings and the Predators are off of a disappointing 2-1 home loss to the Stars that adds fuel to their fire here. In fact, when off of a game where they were held to 1 goal or less, the Preds have won 23 of their last 35 games and netting $10,000 for their backers at $1,000 per game in those 35 games. As for the Red Wings, they've been a money-burning -$6,600 in Friday games the past two seasons. That said, even though it's Friday night at The Joe, the Red Wings are facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Off back to back wins where Detroit allowed just a single goal in each game, a "let down" is in store here. As for the Predators, off of scoring just 1 goal versus Dallas, and looking to avenge past losses to the Red Wings, they're going to be flying all over the ice to notch the road win here tonight. Keep in mind, while the Preds have outshot their opponents overall on the season, the Red Wings have been outshot by a sizable 139 to 97 margin so far this season. 10* NASHVILLE money line Friday |
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10-21-16 | Hamilton +3.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 39-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #479 Friday - 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - With all the strong records out West, the teams in the East are still battling it out for a playoff spot even though their records certainly do not impress. That said, this is a huge game as it is the back-end of a home-and-home set between these two divisional rivals and there are some key tangibles that have me backing the road dog in this one. Hamilton was in a similar spot with Ottawa last season and the Redblacks took both regular season meetings late in the year which helped them earn home field edge for their playoff match-up. The result was a 3rd straight win for the Redblacks over the Ti-Cats and that post-season defeat (and 0-3 finish versus Ottawa) certainly resonates loudly with Hamilton to this day. That makes this a huge revenge spot for the Tiger-Cats after, not only what happened last season but also, a tight one point home loss to Ottawa last week. The Tiger-Cats got off to a slow start in that game and made some mistakes and that definitely hurt them as their rally fell just short in the one point loss to the Redblacks. Jeremiah Masoli is still in at QB for the injured Zach Collaros and he knows he made some costly mistakes with a pair of picks last week but Masoli went 3-3 as the starter earlier this season and last week's loss won't totally derail him. Look for he and he and the Tiger-Cats to bounce back this week as they also got some newly signed players into action last week to help out at key positions after a few injuries narrowed the roster a bit. They'll be even better this week thanks to getting some reps in last week's the game. Even with last week's win, the Redblacks have won just 4 of their last 11 games. Hamilton is about a 3.5 point dog here and the Tiger-Cats are 7-1 SU when off of a loss against a division rival. That said, I am expecting the outright upset here but certainly going to grab the available points. Ottawa is 0-4 ATS this season when off of a win against a division rival. 10* HAMILTON Friday |
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10-20-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers +1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
Top Side - Rickenbach MLB Game #906 Thursday - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Run Line +1.5 runs vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - Even though Kenta Maeda did not impress against the Cubs on Saturday, he did allow only 4 hits in his 4 innings of work and I am expecting much bigger things from him now that he is back home in the pitcher-friendly confines of Dodger Stadium. Maeda, even with the sub-par start Saturday, is 14-8 in night games and opponents are hitting only .217 against him under the lights. Also, Maeda has compiled a solid 3.22 ERA in home games this season. Interestingly, Maeda's start against the Cubs on Saturday was the first time he had ever faced the Cubs. He struggled some on the first pass through the lineup but after that the Cubs went 0 for 8 against him. That certainly could be a sign of things to come for Maeda in his next start against Chicago especially since he now faces them at home. Jon Lester gets the start for the Cubs tonight and he was tough on the Dodgers Saturday but now faces them at LA. Lester did allow 5 earned runs in 5 innings in his most recent road start and, overall, was not as dominant on the road as he was at home this season. Look for the Dodgers sticks to bounce back after being on the wrong end of last night's 10-2 final. Though it would not surprise me to see the Dodgers win tonight's game outright I do feel that there is great line value with laying a small price to have them at +1.5 runs. 6 of the Dodgers last 16 games have been one-run games and, in what could very likely be a tight, lower-scoring game, I'll grab the +1.5 runs with Los Angeles. 10* DODGERS on the RUN LINE Thursday evening |
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10-19-16 | Maple Leafs v. Jets OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 103 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach NHL Game #53/54 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER 5.5 goals in Winnipeg Jets vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 8:05 ET - Toronto has scored 4 goals in each of their first two games. The Jets averaged 4 goals per game in their first two games but they're looking to respond after being held to 1 goal in their loss to Boston Monday. That was a 4-1 loss for Winnipeg and the Jets have now allowed 4 goals in each of their three games this season. You can see why a high-scoring game should be expected here as the Jets goalie situation is already a major question mark and now the high-flying Maple Leafs, buoyed by rookie phenom Auston Matthews, are now in town. The over is a perfect 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these teams and the Jets scored 10 goals in last season's two meetings. The key here is, although Winnipeg should again enjoy success in the offensive zone tonight, the Jets are unlikely to stop the Leafs at the other end of the ice. Toronto's Matthews scored 4 goals in the season opener so, in their second game of the season, the Leafs opponent (the Bruins in that one) focused on slowing him down. Boston did just that but the flip side of the equation was that four other Male Leafs scored goals in that 4-1 Toronto win. The point is that the Leafs are certainly showing signs already of being a dynamic offense and I look for the Jets to bounce back with plenty of scoring chances in this one after their tough 1-goal performance against the Bruins Monday. Look for the over to improve to 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these clubs. 10* OVER in Winnipeg Wednesday evening |
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10-19-16 | Cubs -105 v. Dodgers | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
Top Blowout - Rickenbach MLB Game #901 Wednesday - 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line (+) @ Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - It is not just the fact that the Dodgers 20-year old Julio Urias will be the youngest pitcher to ever start an MLB post-season game, it is the fact that he has not pitched very much at all over the past few weeks and the fact that the Cubs have a number of hitters who have enjoyed success against him. Urias will be matched up with the Dodgers John Lackey and he is the polar opposite of Urias. Lackey is a veteran hurler with a wealth of experience and there are very few Dodgers hitters who will be in the lineup tonight that have enjoyed success against him. Lackey is a gritty, hard-nosed pitcher who is generally at his best in games like this. The Cubs are down 2-1 in this series, have dropped two straight games, and are desperate for a win. Look for Lackey to be at his best. The Cubs are 8-2 in Lackey's last 10 starts and he has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of those 10 outings. As for Urias, over the past 7 weeks he has made just 2 starts and 2 relief appearances. It is unlikely he will be as sharp as he should be and he certainly is likely to be impacted by nerves for this all-important post-season start. Righties hit .284 against southpaw Urias this season and the Cubs are stacked with dangerous right-handed hitters. The Cubs are on a 32-17 run in road games where their money line is between -100 and -125. The Dodgers are on a 13-20 run in home games with a money line that is between -100 and -125. With this line in the pick'em price range, the Cubs with the veteran hurler over the 20-year old is a situation I won't pass up. 10* CHICAGO CUBS money line Wednesday evening |
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10-19-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
Top Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #903/904 Wednesday - 10* Top Play OVER in Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Indians @ 4:05 ET - The Blue Jays erupted for 5 runs yesterday but the total still fell short of going over. Every game in this series has stayed under the total but that appears poised to change in Game 5. Yes, Indians left-hander Ryan Merritt has some impressive stats at the MLB level but he has logged very few innings so it is important to look a little deeper in a pressure packed playoff situation where a rookie is likely to struggle. Note that, at the AAA level in the minors this season, Merritt was rocked at a .279 clip by opposing hitters. Overall, in his minor league career from rookie level all the way up to AAA level, Merritt has been hit at a .267 clip. The point is, it is not like this guy has overpowering stuff and now he faces major league hitters in a situation that is not the easiest for a young hurler. The Blue Jays will counter with Marco Estrada. Though the right-hander has pitched very well this post-season, he is now giving the Indians bats a quick second look at him as they just faced Estrada on Friday. The righty has allowed 4 homers in his 12 innings against the Indians in his two starts against them at the Rogers Centre. One of those outings was earlier this season and the other was last season so it's not like that is ancient history. In fact, he allowed another homer to them in his Game 1 ALCS start at Cleveland, but the Indians are in line to get much more today as they get a quick second look at him here. The over is 5-1 (83%) in Estrada's last 6 home starts and he was hit quite hard in all 5 of those games that ended up going over the total. I expect another one here. 10* OVER in Toronto |
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10-18-16 | Flyers +145 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Game #17 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) @ Chicago Blackhawks @ 8:35 ET - The Blackhawks are off of a big win over Nashville Saturday but they still have lost 2 of their first 3 games and have been outshot 96 to 70 in those three contests. Also, Chicago has allowed 7 power plays goals in 13 opportunities for the opposition. The Flyers are dead even (60-60) in shots on goal so far this season and have allowed just 1 power play goal in 9 chances for opponents. Philadelphia feels good about earning 3 of 4 points thus far in this season opening road trip and the Flyers are fired up about wrapping it up properly tonight in Chicago before heading home for Thursday's home opener. The Blackhawks have had trouble with the Flyers historically as Philly has won 21 of the last 31 meetings including 3 of 4 the past two seasons. Of course this game carries special meaning for the Flyers as they lost to the Blackhawks in the Stanley Cup Finals in June of 2010. That is the only trip to the Finals that Philly has had in the past 19 years so of course it carries extra meaning for Philly even though only current captain Claude Giroux remains from that team. Michal Neuvirth is expected to be in goal for the Flyers tonight. He won his only start this season and also had a spectacular .981 save percentage in the playoffs last spring and a fantastic .924 save percentage in the regular season. Corey Crawford is certainly a great netminder for the Blackhawks but, dating back to last season, he has allowed 3 goals or more in 10 of his last 12 starts! Chicago has lost 10 of his last 13 starts and they lost his last 4 starts of the regular season last spring, then lost 4 of his 7 starts in the post-season, and now have lost his first two starts of this season. The upstart Flyers are catching him at the right time and note that Neuvirth has allowed 2 goals or less in 6 straight starts. He also started both games against the Blackhawks last season and beat them both times while allowing a total of only 2 goals in the two starts. More of the same Tuesday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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10-18-16 | Cubs v. Dodgers +114 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 114 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Top Blowout - Rickenbach MLB Game #954 Tuesday - 10* Top Play Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (+) vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 ET - Rich Hill of the Dodgers has a big edge in this game in my opinion. Not only does the southpaw finally get to make a post-season start in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, Hill gets to face a Cubs team that has never faced him before. That is a huge edge for the left-hander who has struck out 13 batters in his 7 post-season innings thus far. He'll be opposed by Jake Arrieta and the Cubs right-hander no-hit the Dodgers in a start last season and had another great start against them this season. However, Arrieta comes into this start having allowed 12 earned runs on 20 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last three road starts. The Cubs right-hander has only struck out 12 in those 3 starts and the Dodgers lineup is much stronger against righties than lefties. In what is forecast to be a tight low-scoring game, it certainly is noteworthy that the Cubs are an ugly 4-7 this season in road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The total currently is sitting at a 6.5 on this game and the Dodgers are a fantastic 17-6 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less. The Cubs have lost 12 of the last 22 games that Arrieta has started and Hill was drafted by the Cubs in 2002 so you know he is relishing this opportunity and I expect him to make the most of it. 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS money line Tuesday evening |
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10-17-16 | Jets +8 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
MNF Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #277 Monday - 10* Top Play New York Jets (+) @ Arizona Cardinals @ 8:30 ET - The Jets have an ugly record on the season and the Cardinals are getting QB Carson Palmer back under center for this one. However, the keys to this match-up lie a little deeper in the details. The Jets have played a tougher schedule than have the Cards. Both teams faced the Bills but taking a look at the rest of their schedule, note that Arizona played New England when they were without Tom Brady and then their other three games have not featured a single team that currently has a winning record. As for New York, the Jets have lost three straight games (SU and ATS) but all 3 defeats came against teams that currently have a winning record on the season. In fact, those 3 teams have a combined 11-5 mark on the year. The other key to the value here with the Jets (currently priced at +7.5 in this game) is the fact that head coach Todd Bowles played under Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians when he was at Temple from '82 to '85. Also, Bowles was the defensive coordinator at Arizona (under HC Arians) in 2013 and 2014. There is a little extra motivation, to say the least, for Bowles in this match-up. Additionally, he has some additional knowledge of the Cardinals personnel from having recently coached there. In terms of trends in this match-up, note that Arizona is a long-term ugly 1-11 ATS in games where they are a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points. Also, the Cardinals are known for faltering on Monday night with an 0-6 ATS run in their last 6 and also they are off of a big Thursday night win over the 49'ers and they are on a 1-6 ATS run the week after facing San Francisco. Arizona also has a big divisional game on deck with Seattle so it is hard for the Cards not to look ahead here. The Jets are the hungrier, more motivated team here and they also are getting significant points which makes for excellent line value here. The Cardinals have some key injuries at the guard positions on the offensive line and the Jets have a strong defensive line and will win this game in the trenches. 10* NEW YORK JETS plus the big points in Monday Night Football |
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10-17-16 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
MLB Top Total Annihilation - Rickenbach Game #951/952 Monday - 10* Top Play OVER in Toronto vs Cleveland @ 8:05 ET - The bats have been quiet so far in the ALCS but look for plenty of noise from the sticks now as this series shifts to north of the border. Toronto scored 22 runs in their 3 game series against the Rangers and they have scored 12 runs in their last two games played at the Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays will be facing Trevor Bauer who has allowed 4 homers in his last 3 starts and struggled in his only outing so far in this post-season. Bauer gave up 3 earned runs on 6 hits (including 2 homers) in an outing that lasted less than 5 innings. The Indians right-hander also got rocked for 5 earned runs on 6 hits in less than 2 innings of work in his most recent start at the Rogers Centre. Bauer will be opposed by Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays right-hander has given up 6 earned runs on 13 hits in his last two starts while compiling a 4.15 ERA in those two outings. Respectable numbers but nothing earth-shaking. The Indians have won 4 straight road games and averaged 5 runs per game in the process. The Blue Jays averaged 5 runs per game this season in home games. The over is 3-1 this season in Indians games where they are a road dog in the +150 to +175 range. The bats come alive for both clubs tonight as Bauer struggles again like he did in his most recent start and Stroman struggles against an Indians lineup stepping to the plate with plenty of confidence thanks to the 2-0 series lead. 10* OVER in Toronto Monday night |
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10-16-16 | Falcons +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Top Contrarian Play - Rickenbach NFL Game #271 Sunday - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ Seattle @ 4:25 ET - Seattle's defense looks great statistically so far this season. However, they have played some of the worst teams in terms of offensive production so far this year. Miami, LA, San Francisco, and the Jets are hardly a "who's who" of offensive powerhouses. That said, if any offense can march into CenturyLink Field and not be bothered by the noise in Seattle, it is Matt Ryan and the Falcons. Atlanta has the number one offense in the league this season and they have helped lead the way to a 4-1 start to the season for the Falcons. The other key to this play is the fact that Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn was the defensive coordinator with the Seahawks in 2013 and 2014. This the first meeting between these teams since he's been gone from Seattle. You better believe that Quinn wants this game badly and you'd better believe that he has an edge in terms of understanding the personnel and systems of the Seahawks. That said, the fact we are getting about a full TD here with the much better offensive team is too good to pass up. Seattle is still a quality football team but they are regressing in my opinion. They went from SB win in 2013 to SB loss to 2014 to NFC Championship loss in 2015. This season the regression will continue in my opinion but we just haven't seen it yet due to their soft schedule thusfar. The Hawks are off of their bye week but they do have a big game with division rival Arizona on deck. Also, the Falcons don't even want a bye right now as they simply keep on rolling. Their win at Denver last was their fourth straight upset victory. Even though the Falcons are on the road again for a 2nd straight week they simply stayed out west to prepare for this game. This Atlanta team has bonded together very well and this road trip will continue their surge. They are on a 9-1 ATS run their last 10 in the underdog role. The Seahawks are 1-6 ATS when they are at home and playing with rest. Seattle is also 1-5 ATS when they have the Cardinals on deck. The Falcons are 8-1 ATS off of a SU dog win when facing a non-divisional opponent. This is a classic case of an undervalued road dog against an overvalued home fave and that has created generous line value here. 10* ATLANTA in Sunday's late afternoon action |
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10-16-16 | Ravens +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 23-27 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
EARLY Top Side - Rickenbach NFL Game #253 Sunday - 10* Top Play Baltimore Ravens (+) @ New York Giants @ 1 ET - Ravens offense struggled last week in a home loss to the Redskins but Baltimore was limited by gusty winds in that game. The weather conditions today in East Rutherford, New Jersey will be beautiful and I expect the Ravens to take full advantage. Baltimore has the better pass protection (5.0% sack %) so far this season and the Giants have struggled to get to the quarterback (1.9% sack %) so far this year. Baltimore has also had the better defense this season with the #3 ranked D based on yardage while the Giants defense ranks only in the middle of the pack so far this year. The Giants were fortunate to get the ATS push last week at Green Bay as they only had 219 yards of offense in that game. This followed a dismal Monday night performance at Minnesota where the Giants only put 10 points on the board. Look for their struggles on offense to continue here as Baltimore improves on a 4-1 ATS (and SU) mark in their last five meetings with the Giants. The Ravens are on a long-term 81-33 SU run in games against teams with a losing record while the Giants are on a short-term 1-13 SU run in games against teams with a winning record. There is plenty of line value here with grabbing the points as Baltimore is 9-5 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog while the Giants are already 0-2 ATS this season when favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. The Ravens entered this season with an 8-0 ATS mark when they are road dogs of 3or more points and their facing a team off of a SU loss. That system is in play in this one! Also, the Ravens are on a 7-0 ATS run when they are off of back to back losses (SU and ATS) and they are facing an opponent whose winning percentage is .750 or less. Baltimore is also 8-1 ATS as a non-divisional dog of 2 points or more when they are off of an ATS loss by double digits. Last week the Ravens were -4 and they lost outright by 6 points so this system is in play as well as they missed the cover by 10 points last week. Additionally they entered the season on an 8-1 ATS run when facing an NFC opponent off of a SU loss. The Giants have a trip to London on deck as an additional distraction here. 10* BALTIMORE Sunday |
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10-15-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #903/904 Saturday - 10* Top Play OVER in Chicago Cubs vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 8:05 ET - The wind is going to be blowing out at Wrigley Field on a mild evening in Chicago. Even though the Dodgers have to face a tough Jon Lester they have enough pop in their lineup to take advantage of the favorable hitting conditions for this one. Wrigley Field can be one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in the league when the weather conditions are mild with the wind blowing out to left field. Both lineups will be able to take advantage and Lester did allow 5 earned runs to Cincinnati two weeks ago. The Dodgers will have Kenta Maeda on the mound and he has gone 0-3 with 12 earned runs allowed in less than 10 innings of work spanning his last three starts. This is his first ever start at Wrigley Field and the Cubs lineup is ultra dangerous at home with the wind blowing out. The over is a perfect 7-0 the past three seasons when the Dodgers are a road dog of +150 to +175. Also, the Dodgers come into this match-up having had just 1 under in their last 6 games. The Cubs come into this game having had just 2 unders in their last 11 games! The over is 10-4-1 in Maeda's last 15 starts. More of the same in Game 1 of the NLCS. 10* OVER in Chicago Cubs Saturday |
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10-15-16 | Arizona State v. Colorado OVER 61 | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -118 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
TOTAL OF THE MONTH - Rickenbach CFB Game #181/182 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER in Colorado Buffaloes vs Arizona State Sun Devils @ 8 ET - Both of these teams are off of back to back unders. But in their first games this month their totals fell just short. In last week's games there was an asterisk by each game in terms of the total points achieved. Last week the Sun Devils didn't have QB Manny Wilkins but he's probable for this week's game. As for the Buffaloes, they only allowed 21 points at USC last week but they were fortunate to say the least as Colorado's defense was gouged for 539 yards. This is all helping to offer some nice line value with this total being held down a little lower than it should be given the situation and also given the fact that the weather conditions will be perfect for a high-scoring game in Boulder, Colorado on Saturday night. Mild temperatures, clear skies, and light winds. Look for plenty of offense as the Buffaloes had averaged 43.2 points per game in their first 5 games before last week's tough match-up with USC. As for Arizona State, they also had averaged 43 points per game in their first 5 games of the season before they struggled without Wilkins vs UCLA last week. The Sun Devils defense is a major weakness as they are allowing 404.3 passing yards per game this season. The Buffaloes defense has faced 3 weak offenses this season so they put up good numbers in those but against the tougher offenses (and Arizona State certainly falls into that category), the Buffs D has allowed 481 yards per game! This one has the makings of a back and forth shootout and the over is 12-7 in the Sun Devils last 19 games against teams with a winning record. Also, the over is 10-6 in the Buffaloes last 16 games against teams with a winning record. Two strong offenses, two questionable defenses, perfect weather, and line value. It's all there with this one! 10* OVER in Colorado Saturday |
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10-15-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice +3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #170 Saturday - 10* Top Play Rice Owls (+) vs UTSA Roadrunners @ 7 ET Saturday - UTSA is over-rated right now and Rice is under-rated. As a result, there is solid line value here with the home dog. The Roadrunners are off of a big win over Southern Miss but it was a deceiving final score. UT-San Antonio beat the Golden Eagles by a 55-32 final score but gave up 557 yards in the game! The key was 3 Southern Miss turnovers and also that game was a home game for UTSA. Now the Roadrunners take to the road where they have lost both of their games this season and certainly they are not known for being road warriors. Overall, UTSA is on a 3-9 ATS run as a favorite. Rice is off of a much needed bye week and they are playing this game with revenge. A loss to the Roadrunners last season cost the Owls a chance at a bowl game. Rice hasn't forgotten that and they, of course, have the added motivation of being one of just 2 FBS schools (Miami-OH is the other) that are winless on the season. Rice has played a much tougher schedule than UTSA has so far this season and that is a key to evaluating where these teams are really "at" right now. That said, the markets have a false read in my opinion. The line opened up around a pick'em and then went to UTSA -4. The Roadrunners simply aren't worthy of this line move. UT-San Antonio has allowed at least 445 yards per game in three straight games and Rice has won 3 of the 4 all-time meetings between these teams. Even though the Owls stats look very bad, they have played a much tougher schedule than UTSA and they are not only off of a bye, they also have an FCS school on deck so there will be no lookahead here. The Roadrunners have the full attention of the Owls. Rice is on an 8-3 ATS run in their games against teams with a losing record and the Owls are also a perfect 3-0 ATS when off of a bye week. Look for the Roadrunners to drop to 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games. UTSA simply does not travel well and they're going to have their hands full with an angry Owls team off of their bye week. 10* RICE OWLS Saturday evening |
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10-14-16 | Ottawa v. Hamilton -2.5 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -119 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week Friday - Rickenbach CFL Game #280 - 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - With all the strong records out West, the teams in the East are still battling it out for a playoff spot even though their records certainly do not impress. That said, this is a huge game as it is the first of a home-and-home set between these two divisional rivals and there are some key tangibles that have me backing the home team here. Hamilton was in a similar spot with Ottawa last season and the Redblacks took both regular season meetings late in the year which helped them earn home field edge for their playoff match-up. The result was a 3rd straight win for the Redblacks over the Ti-Cats and that post-season defeat (and 0-3 finish versus Ottawa) certainly resonates loudly with Hamilton to this day. That makes this a huge revenge spot for the Tiger-Cats and they are off of their bye week. This is why, even though they have some injury issues, Hamilton is the play here as Jeremiah Masoli steps in at QB for the injured Zach Collaros. Masoli went 3-3 as the starter earlier this season and the extra week helped he and the Tiger-Cats get fully prepared for this game as they also signed some players to help out at key positions after a few injuries narrowed the roster a bit. The Redblacks certainly are not without their own injury issues including star wideout Chris Williams who is truly irreplaceable. He is simply that good! This will hurt the Redblacks who have won just 3 of their last 10 games and have decided to go back to veteran QB Henry Burris. The problem with that is he simply wasn't that effective earlier this season and, in my opinion, it's going to prove to be "too little, too late" for Ottawa as they take on a rested, hungry, and revenge-minded Hamilton team in this one. The Tiger-Cats enter this game off of back to back losses and that is a situation that has seen them go 6-3 ATS the past three seasons including a perfect 2-0 this season. A lot of points expected here and the Redblacks are on a long-term 11-20 ATS run in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. 10* HAMILTON Friday |
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10-10-16 | Cubs v. Giants -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
DS Game of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #904 - 10* Top Play San Francisco Giants Money Line (-) vs Chicago Cubs @ 9:35 PM ET Monday - Madison Bumgarner did it again with his dominating effort against the Mets in the Wild Card game Wednesday that allowed the Giants to reach this point. Yes they are down 2-0 in this series but having Bumgarner on the mound and being back at home could easily be the momentum shift that San Francisco needs as a win tonight forces another game and that one will also be at home. The point is that the Giants certainly know they are not dead yet and I love having Bumgarner over Jake Arrieta and the Cubs at a pick 'em price. The two big keys with his match-ups are Bumgarner's ridiculous long-term post-season numbers dating back to 2014 as well as the fact that Arrieta is not "on top of his game" right now. We've seen Arrieta struggle in particular since mid-August. Dating back to August 18th, Arrieta has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 of his last 8 starts and he allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of those 5 "tougher" outings. This line has moved some but it is still noteworthy that the Cubs are only 1-7 this season when they are on the road and price from +100 to +125 while the Giants are 11-3 when they are at home with a money line of -100 to -125. Bumgarner has not allowed a single run in his last 23 post-season innings on the mound! Arrieta has allowed 10 earned runs in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two road starts of the season. The home team has won 7 of the 9 match-ups between these teams this year! In road games with a posted total of 7 runs or less the Cubs have gone only 4-6 this season while the Giants are 21-11 in home games with a posted total of 7 runs or less this season. Bumgarner's post-season magic continues tonight. 10* SAN FRANCISCO money line Monday Night |
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10-10-16 | Nationals v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 102 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
Daytime Smash - Rickenbach MLB Game #901/902 - 10* Top Play OVER in Los Angeles Dodgers vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET Monday - Very warm temperatures, dry air, and a light breeze blowing out at Dodger Stadium Monday afternoon means this game is likely to be much higher scoring than many are expecting. Yes, the Dodgers are known for struggling against southpaws but the Nationals Gio Gonzalez comes into this start struggling. Washington has lost each of the last three starts the left-hander has made. In his last 5 starts Gonzalez has had only one quality start. In the other 4 outings he gave up 18 earned runs on 30 hits in just 16 innings of work. As for Los Angeles, they will have right-hander Kenta Maeda on the mound and he also comes into this start struggling. Maeda has given up 8 earned runs on 12 hits in less than 7 innings of work spanning his last two starts. There have only been 4 unders in Maeda's last 14 starts. As for Gonzalez, his last start stayed under the total despite his poor results on the mound but 5 of his last 7 starts resulted in overs. Before yesterday's under, the over was 5-1 in the Dodgers last 6 games and 4-1 in the Nationals last 5 games. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Dodgers Monday afternoon |
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10-10-16 | Edmonton v. Montreal OVER 51.5 | Top | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #481/482 - 10* Top Play OVER in Montreal Alouettes vs Edmonton Eskimos - This total has dropped a little and that is offering exceptional line value on the over. Montreal is a different team with a renewed enthusiasm after the coaching change and defeated Toronto, 38-11, in new head coach Jacques Chapdelaine’s Week 15 debut. In speaking about this early Monday afternoon match-up with Edmonton, coach Chapdelaine said “It’ll be important for us to make sure we keep executing as well as we did last week. We’re looking for an up-tempo type of game again.” Therein lies the key to this play. No team has scored fewer points than Montreal this season and no team has allowed fewer points either. However, with a coaching change, the dynamics can change in a hurry. As you can see from the what the Alouettes head coach is saying here, they are ready to play another fast-paced affair. Of course the Eskimos, led by QB Mike Reilly (on pace for 6,000 passing yards this season) are a very dangerous offense to contend with and will undoubtedly give the Eskimos D some trouble. Edmonton has averaged 29 points per game in their last 5 match-ups with Montreal and I also look for another big game from the Als offense in this one. The over is 3-0 this season in Eskimos games when they enter off of 2 or more consecutive wins. The over is on a long-term 46-30 run in Alouettes October games. More of the same here. 10* OVER in Montreal early Monday afternoon on Thanksgiving Day in Canada |
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10-09-16 | Bengals -1.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #471 - 10* Top Play Cincinnati Bengals (-) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Bengals have the rest edge here as they had a Thursday game last week. By the way, Cincy dominated the Dolphins in that game and the fact is that the Cowboys simply have not faced a team as strong as the Bengals yet this season. Cincinnati has been a playoff team for five straight seasons. The Cowboys have faced a floundering 49'ers team, the Giants and Redskins (both struggling in recent season as part of the NFC "Least" Division, and a Bears team that hasn't had a winning season since 2012. Dallas finally gets tested here and the Bengals defense will have its ears pinned back as they want to test Dak Prescott early and often in this one. The young QB has performed well so far this season but he hasn't faced much pressure and the Bengals are known for having a fierce defense that can "bring the heat". Cincy entered this season with a 7-0 ATS mark in their games against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Coach Marvin Lewis has a reputation for having his Bengals at their best for games like this and they would love nothing more than to knock off "America's team" at "Jerry's World" Sunday afternoon in Dallas. The Cowboys have been a great "story" early this season but the Bengals are the "proven" team in a big game setting like this one. Dallas is on a 5-13 ATS run in home games while the Bengals are on a 12-6 ATS run in road games and a 17-6 ATS run against NFC East opponents. 10* CINCINNATI in late afternoon Sunday action |
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10-09-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #465 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons +4.5 @ Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - Paxton Lynch was pressed into duty at QB for the Broncos last week at Tampa Bay and he performed well. However, the Buccaneers are now 13-39 in their last 52 games and Lynch, likely to start here, is going to face a much tougher test against the Falcons. Atlanta is not a strong club defensively but they are a powerhouse on offense and Matt Ryan and Company should "get theirs" against the Broncos in this one. That will put pressure on the rookie Lynch to come up with a big game here and that is going to be tough in this spot. Ryan threw for over 500 yards last week and 300 of that went to WR Julio Jones who continues to be a beast for the Falcons. The Broncos rock solid defense now meets the offense currently ranked #1 in the league and considering the key injury for Denver at the QB position with Trevor Siemian likely to miss, I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here but certainly there is value in the points. Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and all 3 wins were outright upsets! The Falcons are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the past three seasons combined. The Broncos are known for playing well at Mile High but they have covered only 3 of the last 9 times they are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. 10* ATLANTA in late afternoon action Sunday |
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10-09-16 | Dodgers -120 v. Nationals | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #959 - 10* Los Angeles Dodgers Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 1:05 ET Sunday - The Dodgers will have southpaw Rich Hill on the mound for this one. He hasn't started against the Nationals since 2009 so this is a big edge for Hill as the Washington lineup does not have a lot of familiarity with him. As for the Nats starter, Tanner Roark, he started against the Dodgers in June so the LA sticks have seen him recently. The Dodgers thrive against right-handed pitching and are 70-47 against righties on the year. The Nationals have not fared well as a small home dog (up to +125) as they are 2-4 this season and 7-13 the last 3 seasons combined. Also, with Friday's home loss the Nats are 1-4 in playoff games in recent seasons and 3-7 long-term. The Dodgers are a stellar 28-16 in day games this season and this one is slated for first pitch at 1 PM Sunday - rescheduled from Saturday afternoon. Hill came over from Oakland late in the season and the fact is that he's been a road warrior all season. The Dodgers left-hander is 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.89 ERA in road starts this year! 10* LOS ANGELES DODGERS early Sunday afternoon |
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10-08-16 | Texas Tech +9.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 38-44 | Win | 100 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFB Game #339 -10* Top Play Texas Tech Red Raiders (+) @ Kansas State Wildcats @ 7 ET Saturday - Red Raiders QB Patrick Mahomes is unlikely to play and that's why this line is where it is because, the fact is, the Red Raiders are the better team in this match-up. The key then becomes what happens when the back-up QB comes in for Texas Tech? Though it was "only" Kansas last week, junior QB transfer (from Iowa) Nic Shimonek came in and ran the offense very well and threw 4 TD passes. Shimonek is known as one of the hardest working players on the team and he has been learning Kliff Kingsbury's offense ever since he came over from the Hawkeyes. Shimonek has good size at 6'3 220 lbs and he made good throws and quick reads. He also is full of confidence and has worked very hard to be ready for when he's needed. With many of the quick, shorter passes that are a part of the Red Raiders offense, it is not as difficult to "step in" as a back-up QB and get the job done although Shimonek certainly has the arm and the accuracy for the longer routes as well. Shimonek already got some solid work in back in week one of this season and last week's experience versus the Jayhawks also helps him to prepared for taking on Kansas State here. The Wildcats are only averaging 346 5 yards per game this season and this is nothing new as they averaged only 333.7 yards per game to rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. While I do respect their defense, Kansas State was ripped apart for 59 points by the Texas Tech offense last season and they also were heading into that game off of a loss as well. That said, the fact that the Wildcats are off of a tough tight loss at West Virginia doesn't truly strengthen their position here. In fact, when Kansas State is home off of a straight-up loss and facing an opponent off of a win by a double digit margin, the Wildcats have gone 0-4 ATS. Also, Texas Tech is on a 4-2 ATS run as a road dog and their offense (both based on yardage and points per game) is #1 in the nation in both key categories. The Wildcats just don't have the firepower to keep up here and their defense was exposed last season frequently by teams with high-powered offenses. The Cats allowed 36.9 points per game in their final 11 games last season. That is significant in looking at this match-up because Kansas State never scored more than 45 points in a game last season. This season the Wildcats put up big points on poor teams like Florida Atlantic and Missouri State but they averaged only 14.5 points in their other two games. The Wilcats were outgained by a margin of 422 to 286 last week at West Virginia and the numbers are likely to be even more skewed this week. That has me backing the big dog here that absolutely has a great shot at an outright upset win on the road. The Red Raiders are averaging 664 yards of offense per game this season and though their defense is always a liability, they have some confidence with last week's strong performance and, again, the Wildcats just don't have the offense to take advantage. In their two games that weren't against "cupcake opponents" Kansas State has only completed 29 of 71 passes this season! 10* Top Play TEXAS TECH Saturday |
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10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Top MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Minnesota @ 8:30 ET Monday - With Sunday's action in the books the Vikings are one of only three undefeated teams in the league. In my opinion this still has the Vikes as being a little over-rated. Minnesota lost QB Teddy Bridgewater to injury late in the pre-season and now lost RB Adrian Peterson to a knee injury. Minnesota has been winning with defense and I am well aware of the fact that this team has a great defense and certainly I respect that. However, this is still a team whose offense has been impacted by these injuries and I am not sold on Sam Bradford at QB. Overall, the Vikings offense is averaging only 265.3 yards per game so far this season and that ranks them near the bottom of the league. Conversely, the Giants offense has rolled up 396.7 yards of offense per game so far this year and that ranks them near the top 5 teams in the league. Every single game the Giants have played this season has been close with an average margin of 2 points per game. The Vikings have one win by just a field goal but the other two wins came by more than a TD margin. However, Minnesota was actually outgained in both of those "big" wins! The Vikings defense has been getting the job done by generating turnovers and this is masking a sub-par offense. With the Giants off of a loss where they turned the ball over 3 times for a 2nd straight game, I am fully confident New York will be fired up and ready to play a "complete game" on MNF and avoid the turnover bug. The Vikings, while deserving credit for a solid defense that is pressuring QB's and forcing turnovers, have been fortunate early this season while the Giants certainly have not been so fortunate. That is what is helping to create the line value here. New York blew a 21-9 lead against Washington last week and I look for Eli Manning and Company to respond this week. The Giants are 7-1 ATS when off of a game against the Redskins. Also, they know QB Bradford very well from his days with the division rival Eagles. As for the Vikings, they are on an 0-7 ATS run on Monday Night Football and also 0-5 ATS when off of a straight-up win as an underdog and facing a team that has a winning record. Minnesota is also 0-4 ATS when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 points or less against a non-division opponent. Last, but certainly not least, the Vikings are 2-10 ATS when they are off of a game where they covered the spread by double digits and are now facing a team with revenge. The Giants lost badly at Minnesota late last season and it is time for a little payback. Those angles above add up to a 33-3 ATS mark in favor of the road dog in this one! I am grabbing the points here! 10* NEW YORK GIANTS Monday Night. |
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10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #268 - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+) vs Denver Broncos @ 4:05 ET Sunday - The Buccaneers are off of a tough home loss to the Rams last week as they outgained Los Angeles by over 150 yards in the game but came up on the wrong end of the scoreboard in the 37-32 final. The Broncos were at the other end of the spectrum as they as they barely outgained the Bengals at Cincinnati but yet won the game by a 29-17 final. Of course this wasn't the first time this season that the Broncos have been quite fortunate as they very nearly lost their season opener to Carolina and that game was at Denver. The Broncos have had to rally for their backers in each of their three games this season. While I certainly respect the Denver defense this is a team that honestly could just as easily be 0-3 ATS as they are 3-0 ATS as they were down in the 3rd or 4th quarter of each of their games. Statistically Denver's offense has been much worse than the points per game average you are seeing for them as a team and, also, the Bucs defense has been much better than their points per game average allowed as a team. Last week's "crazy game" against the Rams was a perfect example as they only gave up 320 yards in that game but 37 points! Denver has only covered 4 of their last 11 games against teams with a losing record. The Bucs have covered 6 of their last 7 games against a non-conference opponent off of a SU and ATS win. That system fits perfectly here and I look for the Bucs to spring the upset. 10* TAMPA BAY in the late afternoon games Sunday |
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10-02-16 | Brewers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Game #961/962 - 10* Top Play OVER in Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 3:10 ET Sunday - The first two games of this series both stayed under the total and, of course, this is not only the series finale Sunday but also the season finale for these two non-playoff teams. The fact is that it is very rare for all games of a series at Coors Field to stay under the total and I feel, based on this pitching match-up as well as the fact that this is an afternoon game in mild conditions in the thin air of Colorado, that we are getting superb line value here. This total is only a 10.5 and that means getting each team to 5 runs guarantees us of no worse than a 6-5 game and, therefore, a winning ticket. The Brewers are starting Tyler Cravy and, though he has pitched well out of the bullpen, he got rocked in his lone start this season. Also, he has faced the Rockies a few times recently out of the bullpen and this helps give the Colorado lineup familiarity with him. Repetition against a hurler helps the hitters greatly and the Rockies are hitting .303 and averaging 6.3 runs per game in their home game this season. German Marquez gets this start for the Rockies and he was rocked for 6 earned runs on 12 hits in 4 and 1/3 innings in his most recent start. Though his prior start did see him enjoy some success, Marquez did hit two batters in that outing and he certainly is having trouble with command of his pitches and placement in the strike zone. Remember this is a young pitcher still adjusting to life in the bigs and he has been hit at a .355 clip in all of his appearances in the majors this season. This is the 58th day game of the year for the Brewers and they've only had 22 unders thus far. I expect a wild one Sunday as there is no pressure on either team and the weather is favorable for a high-scoring slugfest under the sun. Both pitchers are unproven and likely to struggle. 10* OVER in Colorado Sunday afternoon |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks -1.5 v. Jets | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NFL Game #257 - 10* Top Play Seattle Seahawks (-) @ New York Jets @ 1 ET Sunday - The Seahawks have gone from being a 3 point favorite in this game to all the way down to a pick'em. The value here is simply too good to pass up on. Seattle has a bye on deck so there is no lookahead for them and, keep in mind, this is still a team that is very hungry because, after winning the Super Bowl three years ago, they then lost the Super Bowl the next season and then last season they were knocked out of the playoffs by Carolina in the divisional round. The last thing the Hawks want to do is go into the bye week with a 2-2 record. The way I see it they already had their "oops" game for the first part of the season when their offense failed to show up at Los Angeles and the Rams beat them in a tight, low-scoring game. As for the defense, they are again performing like one of the elite units in the entire league. That spells bad news for a shaky Ryan Fitzpatrick. The Jets QB threw 6 picks last week and there is no doubt the Seahawks defense is licking their chops and they are going to "bring it" on Sunday! What is also significant about this line dropping to a pick'em is the fact that Seattle is 6-2 ATS (and a PERFECT 8-0 SU) when they enter a game off of a divisional win. The Seahawks will build off of last week's dominating win over the 49'ers. The Jets are on a 1-4 ATS run in games against NFC opponents and they don't fare well in games projected to be tight. New York is an ugly 4-9 ATS in games with a line between +3 and -3. I'll take Russell Wilson over Ryan Fitzpatrick any day of the week and I also know that I have the better defense in this one. 10* Seattle Seahawks in early afternoon action Sunday |
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10-01-16 | Marshall v. Pittsburgh OVER 64.5 | Top | 27-43 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
Non-Conf Total of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #113/114 - 10* Top Play OVER in Pittsburgh Panthers vs Marshall Thundering Herd @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Sophomore QB Chase Litton is back for the Thundering Herd this week after being a late scratch (concussion) for last week's game. How much was Litton's scratch really due to concussion-like symptoms and how much of it was just "sacrificing the game" versus powerhouse Louisville? That is my feeling on this as Marshall head coach John Holliday played at West Virginia and also was on the Mountaineers staff for 23 years. That said, he has a special hatred for the Panthers as he had been involved in the "Backyard Brawl" series for many years as a Mountaineer. That said, Holliday has had his eyes on this big match-up at Pittsburgh and he'll have the Thundering Herd ready to go here. Marshall should do just fine on offense against a struggling Pitt defense that has given up 40.3 points per game the last 3 weeks. The problem for the Thundering Herd is a defense that only returned 4 starters from last year's team. The inexperienced unit is facing a Panthers offense that has produced 38.7 points per game the past three weeks. The Marshall defense has allowed an average of 62 points per game the past two weeks and will have their hands full here. The Thundering Herd are 8-2 to the over in their last 10 non-conference games and that includes 3-0 this season! The Panthers are 8-4 to the over in their last 12 non-conference games. Pittsburgh also is 3-0 to the over the last 3 weeks with each game totaling at least 73 points. This total was as high as a 70.5 and has moved down to as low as a 64.5 as of Friday evening and this is offering excellent line value. There is some rain expected at Heinz Field but winds will be light and the precipitation is not expected to be that significant. 10* OVER in Pittsburgh Saturday evening |
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10-01-16 | Tigers v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 42 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #979/980 - 10* Top Play OVER in Atlanta Braves vs Detroit Tigers @ 7:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's posted total was an 8.5 and the game landed on 8 so it was a tight loss for those who had the over like I did. I won't hesitate to come right back with it here though as the Braves were one of the hottest hitting teams in the league in September and the Tigers scored 6 runs yesterday to notch their 8th win in their last 11 games. Detroit continues to battle hard to stay alive for a Wild Card spot and Detroit is averaging 7.2 runs per game during this 8-3 hot streak. The Tigers are turning to Jordan Zimmerman for this "must win" game and that is a tough situation for Detroit as he has not pitched well at all and has also been battling neck problems. Zimmerman has a 16.61 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed an average of 3 baserunners per inning during this very rough stretch. He'll be opposed by the Braves Aaron Blair who is coming off another poor outing where he again had issues with command of his pitches. Blair has gone 1-7 with an 8.02 ERA in his 14 starts this season. The over is 9-3 in Blair's last 12 starts and 8-1-1 in Zimmerman's last 10 starts. That means we are testing a combined 17-4 run to the over with this play and I'll gladly elevated this one to a top play rating! 10* OVER in Atlanta Saturday evening |
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10-01-16 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 16-17 | Loss | -113 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #126 - 10* Top Play West Virginia Mountaineers (-) vs Kansas State Wildcats @ 3:30 ET Saturday - This line dropped from a 3.5 to a 2.5 Friday and that makes 3 a "win number" for West Virginia which is a great value here. I am well aware of the fact that Bill Snyder is one helluva coach and that Kansas State has defeated the Mountaineers each of the last four seasons. However, last year West Virginia outgained the Wildcats 447 to 304 and yet lost the game by a single point. The Mountaineers held Kansas State to just 10 of 31 through the air. In the last meeting here, in 2014, West Virginia held the Wildcats to a net of ONE rushing yard on 29 carries yet the Mountaineers still fell just short on the scoreboard. Overall, West Virginia has held the first down edge by 49 to 33 in the last two meetings and yet they lost both games on the scoreboard. The point is that coach Snyder hasn't exactly outsmarted Dana Holgorsen in these last two meetings. It's just been a pair of tough, tight losses for West Virginia despite having some key edges. With that said, this is a quadruple revenge spot for the Mountaineers and they are catching K-State at the ideal time. The Wildcats haven't played a tough opponent in a month and that was a double digit loss at Stanford. That was followed by a bye week for the Cats and then easy match-ups with Florida Atlantic and Missouri State! Look for the Wildcats to have trouble adjusting early on as they finally step back on the field with a formidable foe for the first time in 30 days! The Mountaineers are undefeated on the season and got a hard-fought win over BYU last week that will serve them well for facing a well-coached Kansas State team this week. There is only "so much" that coaching can do for a team and the Wildcats are on a 3-7 skid in Big 12 games their last 10 with an average margin of defeat of 15 points in those 7 losses! West Virginia is on a 5-2 ATS run at Mountaineer Field when they are a home favorite. 10* WEST VIRGINIA Saturday afternoon. |
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09-30-16 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg -3 | Top | 40-26 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #280 - 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers -3 vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 8:30 ET Friday - The Blue Bombers are off of a tight loss last week but that was against the #1 team in the league as Winnipeg fell just short of upsetting the Stampeders in Calgary. As for the Eskimos, they are also off of a tight game but they came out on the right side at home against the BC Lions last week. That sets this one up nicely as the Blue Bombers come in hungry off of a win while Edmonton can't help but have trouble coming down off the emotional high of knocking off a tough BC team last week. The Eskimos had lost 3 straight games before last weeks win. Conversely, the Blue Bombers had actually won 7 straight games before their furious comeback attempt against league-leading Calgary fell just short. Even though Edmonton has revenge from a home loss to Winnipeg in late July, note that the Blue Bombers had lost at home to the Eskimos earlier in July and they have a chance to now avenge that defeat at home. With the line dropping from a -5 to a -3 we are getting excellent line value with a Blue Bombers team that got another strong game from QB Matt Nichols last week. The Eskimos win and cover last week was their first ATS win in their last five games! In fact, that was Edmonton's first ATS win in EIGHT divisional games this season! The Eskimos continue to be over-valued this season as the defending Grey Cup champions. By the way, the Blue Bombers certainly haven't forgotten that they not only lost here at home to Edmonton earlier this season but also the fact that the Eskimos won the Grey Cup right here in Winnipeg last year. The Blue Bombers want this game badly and the line move has opened up exceptional line value with Winnipeg as the small home fave here. Keep in mind, even if this line moves back up a little, the Blue Bombers are 3-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points the past three seasons combined. 10* WINNIPEG |
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09-30-16 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 114 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
RL Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Game #910 - 10* Top Play St Louis Cardinals Run Line -1.5 runs (+) vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 8:15 ET Friday - The Pirates are 11-19-1 in their last 31 games after yesterday's ultra rare tie. The big key here with the value on today's play is that 13 of Pittsburgh's last 15 losses have come by at least two runs. The Cardinals are battling hard for a playoff spot, they have an edge on the mound in this one, and the odds are they win the game. That said, I'll gladly grab the plus money on the run line as the money line price on the Cards is of course very steep here. The Cardinals win only came by a run yesterday but 10 of their 12 prior wins all came by two runs or more. The Cards will have Carlos Martinez on the mound and he has a stellar 2.65 ERA in his last 8 starts as he allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of those outings. He'll be opposed by a struggling Tyler Glasnow of the Pirates. The rookie right-hander has a 6.35 ERA at the big league level as a starter and one of his 3 starts this season was at St Louis in early July. The fact the Cardinals have already seen him certainly benefits their lineup and Glasnow also has pitched out of the pen some for Pittsburgh. Nearly every outing (whether out of the pen or as a starter) has seen him struggle if he goes longer than an inning. That said, he is still adjusting to pitching at the MLB level and I expect another tough start for him here. The Pirates are on an 0-5 run as a road dog of +175 to +200 and the Cardinals are on a 35-14 run as a home fave of -175 to -200. The odds are certainly favoring a Cards victory here and, as shown above, the odds also favor any STL win to come by a big margin over the struggling Pirates. 10* Top Play St Louis on the RUN LINE -1.5 runs Friday evening |
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09-29-16 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Best Bet Slugfest - Rickenbach MLB Game #957/958 - 10* Top Play OVER in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 7:15 ET Thursday - Admittedly I got hurt with this same play yesterday but that certainly ended up being a strange game and one that was tough to stomach as my other two plays (one was a free play) were both easy winners with the Mariners in afternoon action and the Rockies under in late night action. As for this match-up, I won't hesitate to come right back with it as, amazingly, there was only ONE INNING in last night's game where the pitcher did not have to pick out of the stretch. That's right, only ONE inning out of NINE (the 7th inning) featured a "1-2-3 inning) with three straight outs. The rest of the game 8 innings - both teams - 16 half-frames had baserunners! The problem? The teams combined to leave 18 men on base and also combined for a pitiful 2 for 19 performance with runners in scoring position. Look for the lineups to make up for that pathetic effort with some clutch hitting coming back to the forefront tonight and I'll gladly fade the early line move here as this total dropped from an opener of 8.5 down to an 8 as of this morning. Daniel Straily gets the start for the Reds tonight and he has a 4.69 ERA on the road this season. Also, he just faced the Cardinals earlier this month and was fortunate to escape virtually unscathed as he walked 7 in less than 6 innings of work! As for the Cards, they will have Alex Reyes on the mound. I am well aware of the fact that the rookie has pitched fairly well overall but note how the Cubs gave him some trouble in his most recent start. That is because he was facing them for a 3rd time (including bullpen work) and they had already seen him for 7 innings. That is similar to this case with Reyes facing the Reds for a 3rd time. He's already logged 7 innings against them (1 out of pen and 6 as a starter) and the more a team sees a rookie hurler, the better the results usually are for that lineup. We saw that already with the Cubs against Reyes and I expect to see a repeat tonight with the Reds. After last night's nonsensical 2-1 final, look for both teams to return to "normal' tonight and that means this one flies over the total. The Cincy bullpen is weak and the Cardinals came into yesterday's game having allowed an average of 6.9 runs per game in their last 7 games. The Reds are 11-6 to the over as a road dog of +175 to +200 this season. Cincinnati is also 10-3 to the over in Thursday games this season. 10* OVER in St Louis Thursday |
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09-28-16 | Reds v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
MLB Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #909/910 - 10* Top Play OVER in St Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds @ 8:15 ET Wednesday - The Cardinals will have Mike Leake on the mound and he started his career with the Reds. Perhaps from putting so much pressure on himself when facing his former team, Leake has struggled badly against Cincinnati. The right-hander is 0-3 with an 8.31 ERA in the three starts he has made against the Reds. That spells bad news for Leake on Wednesday as the Reds have had some big games at the plate recently are likely to "tee off" against him for the 4th time in the past 3 months! Cincinnati, however, also has a concern of their own on the mound in this one. Anthony DeSclafani makes the start for the Reds Wednesday and he has allowed 11 runs (9 earned) on 12 hits and 6 walks in the 10 innings spanning his last two starts. Overall, in his last three starts, DeSclafani has taken the loss in each game and all 3 games went over the total. 3 of Leake's last 4 starts have gone over the total. Entering Tuesday's action, the over was 5-2 in all meetings between these teams in St Louis. Also, entering the Tuesday action, the Reds were 69-46 to the over in their games against right-handed starters. With the success that Cincy has had against Leake coupled with the fact that the Cardinals are still battling hard to stay alive in the playoff race, you have a game with the makings of plenty run-scoring opportunities early and often. The Cards have hit 2 homers in each of their last 2 games against DeSclafani. 10* OVER in St Louis Wednesday evening |
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09-27-16 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
AL East Game of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #965/966 - 10* Top Play OVER in New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox @ 7:05 ET Tuesday - The Yankees rallied for 5 runs in the top of the 9th last night in Toronto to beat the Blue Jays 7-5. Buoyed by that performance and also fired up about facing their most heated rivals, the Yanks should enjoy success at the plate tonight. The Yankees have been a bit of a nemesis for David Price in recent meetings. The ace southpaw of the Red Sox has given up 14 earned runs on 27 hits in the 16 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts against the Bronx Bombers. His counterpart, Luis Cessa, will certainly have his hands full tonight too. The Yankees right-hander is facing a Red Sox team that has won 11 straight games and averaged 5 runs per game in the process. Also, Cessa just faced the BoSox on the 16th and he allowed 3 earned runs on 6 hits in 5 innings and the damage could have been worse as he had trouble avoiding contact. Only 1 of the 15 outs came via a Cessa strikeout. Cessa gave up 3 homers in his most recent home start. Price has given up 4 homers in his last 3 starts overall. The over is 10-1 in Price's last 11 starts! Look for the over to improve to 6-2 in Boston games this season where they are a road favorite of -175 or more. 10* OVER in New York Yankees Tuesday evening |
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09-26-16 | Falcons +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 45-32 | Win | 105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
MNF Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #489 - 10* Top Play Atlanta Falcons (+) @ New Orleans Saints @ 8:30 ET Monday - Huge revenge game for the Falcons as they lost both match-ups to the Saints last year. The first one, at New Orleans, ended Atlanta's 5-game winning streak to start the season. That also began an ugly 1-7 run for the Falcons that ruined their season. They haven't forgotten and, even though the Saints will be hungry here because of an 0-2 start to the season, the Falcons won't be denied. Both teams have solid offenses but New Orleans struggled at New York in the loss to the Giants last week. The Saints defense only allowed 16 points last week but 3 turnovers were the key as New Orleans actually allowed 417 yards. Also, prior to that game, the Saints had allowed an average of 28 points per game in their last 10 games. New Orleans is only 4-10 ATS in the role of home favorite and the revenge-minded Falcons are coming into this one flying high after another strong performance from QB Matt Ryan in last week's win at Oakland. Atlanta outgained the Saints in both meetings in each of the past two years but last year still lost both on the scoreboard. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn is fired up about getting his first win over this division rival (after going 0-2 last year) and you can bet the defensive-minded coach paid plenty of attention to how the Giants frustrated Drew Brees and the Saints offense last week. More of the same this week. 10* ATLANTA Monday Night |
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09-26-16 | Mariners v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #915/916 - 10* Top Play OVER in Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners @ 8:10 ET Monday - This total opened up at an 8.5 and has dropped to a 7.5 on gameday morning and that easily makes it "go time" with this one. The last time I checked these team still play in the American League and the last time I checked neither Hisashi Iwakuma or Collin McHugh are Cy Young candidates! All kidding aside, this total dropping below an 8 in an AL game not involving two pitchers with lights out stuff means we are getting exceptional line value here. Iwakuma just got rocked for 6 runs (5 earned) in less than 4 innings in his most recent start. Also, he has been hit hard by (and lost to) Houston in 2 of his 3 starts against them this season. As for McHugh, I know he has enjoyed great success against the Mariners in his career but this is still a guy who has been hit at a .291 clip this season while compiling a 4.61 ERA. Simpy put he is still not pitching like the guy that had better seasons each of the two prior years. Also, the over is 17-7-2 in the last 26 meetings between these teams in Houston. Yes I am aware of the Nelson Cruz injury but that has helped give us even more value than we should be getting with these two hurlers on the mound and that raises this selection to a Top Play for me. 10* OVER in Houston Monday |
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09-25-16 | Steelers v. Eagles +4 | Top | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show |
Ultimate PA Insider - Rickenbach NFL Game #482 - 10* Top Play Philadelphia Eagles (+) vs Pittsburgh Steelers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - No one believes in the Eagles yet because they've only beaten the Browns and Bears. However, Cleveland actually jumped on Baltimore 20-0 last week before eventually losing. You didn't see Cleveland jump on top of Philly 20-0 did you? As for the match-up with the Bears, even though Chicago's offense certainly may have some issues they are a solid defense and well-coached by John Fox who is certainly a defensive-minded head coach. The Bears weren't able to stop the Eagles in what was supposed to be the Eagles first loss of the year. Now the talk is that Pittsburgh will take them down because finally the Eagles face a top team. Perhaps this is the week that Philadelphia loses but, if they do, it should not be by more than a field goal. Let's not forget, Philly has home field here, and also their defense is vastly improved and certainly the overall "locker room" and team "chemistry" is worlds better now in Philly. Give credit to new coach Doug Pederson and the entire Eagles management team. They are doing a good job already in Philly in terms of having put the right pieces together and that certainly includes rookie QB Carson Wentz who certainly is not your "average rookie" in terms of his intellect for the playbook and for making quick decisions in terms of reading coverages and reading defenses overall. He is a sharp kid with a strong arm and he'll give Pittsburgh some trouble Sunday as, fortunately for the Eagles, they are catching the Steelers at the perfect time. Pittsburgh just got a huge win last week over the division rival Bengals and that is always a physical game that is very taxing mentally and physically to the Steelers. The last 4 times that Pittsburgh is off of a game against Cincinnati they have not covered their next game a single time. The Eagles have their bye week on deck so they will certainly put every ounce of energy into this game and the atmosphere at The Linc is certainly going to be electric. As for the Steelers, they poured every ounce of energy into last week's key divisional win! Philly is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against AFC opponents. Even though these teams are in the same state they don't meet often since they are in opposite conferences but historians will like the fact that the Eagles have covered 4 of the last 5 including all 3 in Philly. The Eagles continue to be undervalued as, with their bye week on deck and with the Steelers off a very demanding divisional showdown, the situational edge here is with the home dog. 8* PHILADELPHIA Sunday |
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09-25-16 | Chargers v. Colts OVER 51 | Top | 22-26 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #485/486 - 10* Top Play OVER in Indianapolis Colts vs San Diego Chargers @ 4:25 ET Sunday - Both teams have gone over the total in each of their first two games and it wasn't because of fluke results either. With Philip Rivers leading the Chargers and Andrew Luck leading the Colts you have two of the top QBs in the league leading these high-powered offenses. As for the defenses, each of these units ranks among the worst in the league and the Indy secondary has been ravaged by injuries of late. Rivers and company have to be "licking their chops" at the downfield opportunities they will have in this game. At the same time, the Chargers defense was monumental in defeat in terms of how they blew that first game at Kansas City, an eventual OT loss for San Diego. Even though the Chargers bounced back with a big home win over the Jaguars, don't be fooled by the final scored. San Diego only allowed 14 points but Jacksonville had nearly 400 yards of offense in that game. The Colts are off of a tough game at Denver but that came against a Broncos defense that is arguably the best in the league. The scarier part of that game was the fact that the Colts D gave up 400 yards to a very questionable Denver offense. That said, the high-powered Chargers attack should roll right through the Indy D on Sunday. Dating back to last season, Indianapolis has allowed an average of 31.6 points per game in their last 7 games! The Chargers had one good game on the road last season. In their other 7 road games last season San Diego allowed an average of 26.6 points per game. This season the Chargers gave up 33 total (27 in regulation) in their lone road game. There is no reason this game shouldn't end up being a 35-31 type game the way these defenses are playing and the way these two QBs can sling it. 10* OVER in Indianapolis Sunday afternoon |
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09-25-16 | Angels v. Astros OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #973/974 - 10* Top Play OVER in Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels @ 2:10 ET Sunday - The Angels scored 10 runs again on the Astros yesterday so they have now taken the first three games of this series by a combined 22-10 margin. Look for another high-scoring match-up today as neither of these pitchers has electric stuff. The Angels are starting Daniel Wright today and he has allowed at least 3 earned runs in all 5 of his starts this season even though he didn't last longer than 5 and 1/3 innings in any of those outings. Overall, Wright has a 7.04 ERA as a starter and the over is 4-1 in his 5 starts this season. The Astros will have Joe Musgrove on the mound this afternoon and he will be facing an Angels lineup that is simply "feeling it" right now as Los Angeles is enjoying playing the role of spoiler. The Angels should pound Musgrove as he has a 5.89 ERA in his last 7 starts. Yes, he has pitched a little better of late but LA is on fire at the plate right now and Musgrove has gone winless (and been hit at a .283 clip) in his two day game starts this season. This line is hovering around a 9 and could drop to an 8.5 but even at 9 it is a play and note that the over is 22-13 this season in Astros games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. With 30 runs scored in the last two games in this series, I am expecting another wild one to wrap things up in this 4-game set. 10* OVER in Houston Sunday afternoon. |
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09-24-16 | Arkansas +6.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #363 - 10* Top Play Arkansas Razorbacks (+) vs Texas A & M Aggies in Arlington, Texas @ 9 PM ET Saturday - A match-up of unbeatens and the Aggies are also 3-0 ATS. However, their week one win was over UCLA in overtime. A & M gave up 468 yards in that game. Their 2nd game was against Prairie View so certainly that was a chance for the Aggies to pad their stats. Then, last week, A & M did knock off Auburn but the Tigers had 26 first downs (compared to 19 for the Aggies) and Auburn did amass 236 yards on the ground. Keep in mind that the Aggies are known for struggling against the run and the Razorbacks have outgained them on the ground by a margin of 517 to 202 in the last two meetings between these teams. Texas A & M did prevail in those games but both were decided in overtime. There is exceptional line value here with the Razorbacks as a 6.5 point dog (as of Friday evening) as they are on a 9-1 ATS run when they are off of a game where they scored more than 35 points. Arkansas blasted Texas State 42 to 3 last week. Arky is also on an 11-4-1 ATS run in SEC games including 9-2-1 when they are an underdog in SEC action. The Aggies are on a 4-8-1 ATS run as a fave in SEC action and A & M is 7-17-1 ATS overall against SEC foes. The Aggies are over-rated right now, early in this season, as they have played the weaker schedule compared to Arkansas. Also, this is a neutral site game and Arkansas is arguably the better team. The Razorbacks defense did return 9 starters from last year's team and they are improved and it looks like head coach Bret Bielema will finally get his revenge against Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies. The Razorbacks are on a 7-1 ATS run in games where they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 10 points. Arky is on an 11-4 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Conversely, A & M is on a 3-10 ATS run against teams with a winning record. Look for these trends to continue here. 10* ARKANSAS Saturday |
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09-24-16 | LSU v. Auburn OVER 44 | Top | 13-18 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #393/394 - 10* Top Play OVER in Auburn Tigers vs LSU Tigers @ 6 PM ET Saturday - Auburn only scored 16 points in last week's game versus Texas A & M but the Tigers were stopped on downs at the Aggies 12 and also held a 26-19 first down edge in the game. Auburn should bounce back against an LSU team whom they put up 21 points on at Death Valley last year. That game totaled 66 points and I expect much more than the 44 (as of Friday evening) that is the current total posted on this game. We're getting some line value here with a low total since LSU has stayed under the total in all 3 of their games this season and Auburn's 3 games have seen only 1 over result. The key helping the value is that LSU faced a very tough Wisconsin defense in week one but, since then, they have run more plays in week two and week three and LSU's offense actually ran 71 plays in last week's win over Mississippi State and very nearly broke the 400 yard mark. Auburn also has been increasing their tempo going from 71 plays to 85 plays to 89 plays so far this season. Keep in mind, Auburn's offense has totaled 1105 yards in their last two games! The defense of Auburn is a concern however with 231 rushing yards allowed versus A & M last week and, note that Auburn has allowed at least 247 passing yards in all three of their games this season! The over is 6-3 when LSU is off of a win over a conference foe. Also, the over is 6-3 when LSU enters a game off of consecutive straight-up wins. With LSU off of back to back wins totaling 57 points and with Auburn looking to respond in a big way after a disappointing home effort versus Texas A & M, I look for plenty of points in this one and will take advantage of the low number being offered. LSU had 323 yards at halftime of last year's game against Auburn! Look for LSU to have another big effort in this year's game but Auburn has been pushing the pace on offense this season and they're not going to slow it down in this game. 10* OVER in Auburn Saturday |
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09-24-16 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #915/916 - 10* Top Play OVER in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 4:05 ET Saturday - The Blue Jays are still batting for a playoff spot while the Yankees have "realistically" been relegated to playing the role of spoiler although they are mathematically "alive" still. The key here is that this means both teams should still be going with their best lineups in this match-up and, with these two starting pitchers on the mound, that should spell a solid O-V-E-R! The Yankees will have C.C. Sabathia on the bump this afternoon and he gave up 7 earned runs in 6 innings when he faced the Jays last month. The veteran southpaw also has been roughed up in 2 of his last 3 starts with short outings where he has been knocked out after only 5 innings or less. The Blue Jays pounded the Yanks for 9 runs yesterday and have notched at least 10 hits in 5 of their last 8 games. Though the Yankees were shut down at the plate yesterday that was against a left-handed starter and they have often struggled against southpaws this season. Today the Yanks face right-hander Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays righty gave up 7 hits in just 5 innings in the Bronx earlier this month. His most recent home start stayed under the total but previously the Blue Jays were 9-4 to the over in Stroman's home starts this season and the Yankees are on a 14-10 run to the over after getting shut out. The Yanks bats will respond today while the Jays stay hot at the plate. Look for the over to improve to 16-9 in Blue Jays Saturday games this season. 10* OVER in Toronto Saturday afternoon. |
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09-23-16 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -104 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #955/956 - 10* Top Play OVER in Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET Friday - After striking out 10 in his final start in August, the Braves Matt Wisler has struck out a total of only 2 batters in his last two starts! Also, one of those two outings came against the Marlins and Miami absolutely pounded Wisler for 6 earned runs on 10 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. The Marlins will have Andrew Cashner on the mound and he struggled against the Phillies (3 earned runs on 5 hits and 3 walks in 4 innings) in his most recent start and this followed a very rough start at Atlanta where the Braves pounded him for 7 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. With both of these lineups very familiar with the pitchers they'll be facing today and with both of these starting hurlers struggling, there should be plenty of runs in this one! Adding to the value is the fact that the Braves are 15-4-1 to the over this month. Also, as a road dog of +100 to +125 this season, Atlanta has gone 10-2 to the over! The Braves won 6-3 yesterday and are 34-22 to the over this season when off of a victory. Yesterday's game pushed the closing total of 9 but the over was 11-4 in the 15 meetings between these teams prior to yesterday. The Braves are averaging 5.9 runs per game in their last 10 games overall as they remain hot at the plate. The Marlins have averaged 6 runs per game in their 4 games facing Braves pitching this month. 10* OVER in Miami Friday |
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09-23-16 | Toronto v. Ottawa -5.5 | Top | 12-29 | Win | 101 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #492 - 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET Friday - Revenge game for Ottawa as they look to avenge a 23-20 home loss to the Argos in the nation's capital back in late July. Since that victory, Toronto has lost 5 of their last 6 games and 4 of the 5 losses came by at least a 13 point margin. That is why I have no fear of laying the points here (currently -5.5) with the Redblacks. With Argonauts QB Ricky Ray out for the season, Toronto is a different team. They have still been moving the ball on offense but they continue to make mistakes and have been done in by turnovers. Ottawa will take advantage of this and the Redblacks are 3-1 ATS the last 4 times they have been a home fave in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, this season, when playing with 6 days or less of rest, Ottawa has gone 3-1 ATS. The Redblacks played the top team in the league, Calgary Stampeders, and lost badly on Saturday. That has them fired up for this divisional match-up Friday and they host an Argonauts team that is on an 8-15 ATS run in divisional games and also playing with short rest here as Toronto got blasted by Winnipeg Saturday. The Redblacks have been very strong against the run this season and that will force the Argos to the air and back-up QB Dan LeFevour who has had issues with throwing costly picks since filling in for Ray. More of the same expected here. 10* OTTAWA Friday |
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09-22-16 | Royals v. Indians OVER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Royal Insider - Rickenbach MLB Game #915/916 - 10* Top Play OVER in Cleveland Indians vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET Thursday - Yesterday's 4-3 Indians win came up a run short of going over the total but the Royals are still on a 19-5 run to the over in their last 24 games. Also, despite yesterday's under, the over is still a solid 45-29 in Indians home games this season. This will be Cleveland's 15th Thursday game this season and so far only 3 have stayed under the total. The Tribe will have Mike Clevinger on the mound and he has a 5.29 ERA on the season with a 1.72 WHIP in his home starts and he is averaging only 4.2 innings per start on the year! The Royals will have Jason Vargas making just his 2nd start of the season and he gave up 8 hits in 6 innings the last time he faced Cleveland. In 6 starts in the minors this season Vargas went winless with a 5.85 ERA and minor league batters hit nearly .300 against him this year. The KC southpaw is trying to work his way back from Tommy John surgery. Cleveland ranks 5th in MLB with a solid .272 batting average against left-handed pitching this season. The over is 9-4 this season in Kansas City road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The over is 8-4 in Vargas' 12 career starts against the Indians. With the Tribe still trying to lock up the division and the Royals still not officially eliminated from wild card contention and two 'shaky' starters on the mound for this one, look for plenty of runs. 10* OVER in Cleveland |
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09-20-16 | Tigers v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
#1 Total - Rickenbach MLB Game #923/924 - 10* Top Play OVER in Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers @ 8:10 ET Tuesday - The Twins got swept at New York by the Mets but are happy to be back home and they're facing a Tigers team whom they just saw in Detroit. Minnesota took 2 of the last 3 games at Comerica Park and scored 19 runs in the process. The Twins and Tigers have been involved in some "slugfest action" in recent seasons in their match-ups at Target Field. The teams have met here 25 times in the past 3 seasons and only 6 of those 25 games stayed under the total. Based on the pitching match-up for tonight, I look for the high-scoring trend to continue. Matt Boyd gets the start for the Tigers and he gave up 7 earned runs in less than 4 innings against the Twins last Tuesday. Overall, the southpaw is struggling of late with 23 hits allowed in 14 and 2/3 innings of work. The over is a ridiculous 50-23 in Minnesota's home games this season and, with the Twins Hector Santiago likely to struggle, I expect this trend to continue. The Minnesota southpaw got the win against the Tigers last week but he had been rocked (including 3 homers in EACH outing) in his last two starts against Detroit. With the Tigers getting a quick second look at him, Santiago is likely to struggle at home where he has a 5.74 ERA this season. The over is 10-5 in his home starts this year. Both teams had yesterday off and Detroit is 10-5 after a day off and the Twins are 11-5 after a day off this season. 10* OVER in Minnesota |
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09-20-16 | Yankees v. Rays -104 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
#1 Side - Rickenbach MLB Game #918 - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays (-) vs New York Yankees @ 7:10 ET Tuesday - As quickly as the Yankees climbed back into the post-season race they fell back out of it even faster. The Yanks have definitely had the air let out of their balloon as they have lost five straight and seven of their last eight. That makes them an easy fade here as they have struggled with southpaws this season and also are hanging their heads a bit today after their recent collapse punctuated by a 4-game sweep at the hands of the rival Red Sox. Another division foe, the Rays, would certainly love nothing more than to help push the Yanks further toward their inevitable elimination from the post-season picture. Left-hander Drew Smyly is 3-0 with a stellar 2.25 ERA and phenomenal 0.81 WHIP in the five starts he has made against the Yankees in his career. Michael Pineda makes this start for the Yankees and he has not managed to complete 5 innings in any of his last 3 starts. This exposes a Yanks bullpen that, of course, is not what it once was as they lost some key arms (like Aroldis Chapman) earlier in the summer. The Yankees were off yesterday and are 4-8 this season when playing with a day off. Also, the Yanks are an ugly 3-9 in games played on artificial turf this year. The Rays swept the Yankees in late July earlier this season and I look for them to make it 4 straight over the Yanks tonight. 10* TAMPA BAY RAYS |
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09-19-16 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #957/958 - 10* Top Play OVER in Colorado Rockies vs St Louis Cardinals @ 8:40 ET Monday - After going over the total in 4 straight games it has been back to back unders for Colorado. However, that certainly hasn't been the fault of the Rockies bats and tonight, in the thin air of Colorado, and with light winds likely shifting and blowing out during the game, we should see plenty of runs here. The Rockies have averaged nearly 7 runs per game in their last 6 contests. The Cardinals come into this game off of a shutout win at San Francisco. The over is 7-1 this season in St Louis games when they are off of a shutout win. Also, in road games where the Cards are priced with a money line between -100 and -125, the over is 14-6 this season! This will be the Cardinals 42nd game against a left-handed starter and so far this season only 15 of the games have resulted in an under. The Rockies will have Tyler Anderson on the mound and he had been on a strong run but he struggled badly against the Diamondbacks in his most recent start. He did not seem 'right' at all in that outing and the 6 runs (5 earned) on 9 hits in just 4 and 1/3 innings is a sign of things to come. He'll be opposed by the Cardinals Carlos Martinez tonight. The right-hander has been hit hard by the Rockies (18 hits in 11 and 1/3 innings) in the 2 starts he has made against them in his career. Martinez also appears to be regressing of late as he has given up 24 hits in the 19 innings spanning his last 3 starts. More struggles for him tonight the toughest ballpark for pitchers in the entire league. 10* OVER in Colorado |
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09-18-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
Div Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #915/916 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees @ 8:05 PM ET Sunday - The Red Sox are heating up again as they have won each of the first three games in this series and, overall, Boston has won 8 of their last 11 games. The Red Sox have averaged scoring 8.5 runs per game in the 8 victories and, even though the Yankees have slumped in this series, it truly hasn't been offensive production that is to blame. The Yanks have scored 14 runs on 32 hits in the first three games of this series. The issue for the Yankees is that their pitching has slumped and that is unlikely to change with CC Sabathia on the mound. The veteran southpaw has faced the Red Sox only once this season but he gave up 5 runs (4 earned) on 9 hits in 5 and 1/3 innings while also compiling more walks than strikeouts. Overall he has given up 15 hits and 6 walks in the 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts against the BoSox. Sabathia is off of a strong start against the Dodgers but LA is not use to seeing him. Now he'll face a lineup that is very familiar with him and, keep in mind, in his start prior to facing the Dodgers he allowed 3 homers in just 4 innings versus Tampa Bay. Sabathia will be opposed by Boston's Drew Pomeranz who has been in a downward cycle. The southpaw is winless with a 6.28 ERA in his last three starts. The Yankees are now seeing him for a 3rd time in a span of two months and they did hit him harder in 2nd meeting than in the first. With Pomeranz having allowed 27 hits in his last 23 innings pitched at Fenway Park, look for the Yankees to get to him early and often in this one as the over improves to 5-2 in Yankees games this season as a road dog in a range of +150 to +175. The Red Sox are 19-11 to the over in home games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. 10* OVER in Boston Sunday night |
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09-18-16 | Colts +7 v. Broncos | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
Shocker of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #281 - 10* Top Play Indianapolis Colts (+) @ Denver Broncos @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Broncos survived their season opener but it truly was a "choppy" debut for new QB Siemian as turnovers certainly were an issue. Overall the Broncos were outgained and narrowly held on for the 1 point victory. I look for Denver to be exposed here as the Colts offense is so dangerous with QB Luck at the controls and Indianapolis put up 450 yards of offense in last week's loss to the Lions. Of course the issue for the Colts, as it was last week against the Lions, is their defense. However, this Broncos offense is going to have some "growing pains" with Siemian at the helm. Denver is on an 0-9 ATS run in games against the Colts and with this spread working all the way up from an opener of 4.5 to a 7 as of Saturday, it is "go time" for me. Indianapolis, the last 10 times they are off of a loss and then are a dog of at least a point or more (basically out of the pick'em price range) they have gone 10-0 ATS! Fired up after a missed opportunity win at home against Detroit last week, the Colts will bring their "A game" this week. The Broncos, by virtue of sneaking out that 1 point win over Carolina, continue to be over-rated and that is evident by the line move here as the Denver backers are out in full force. The Colts are very hungry off of their disappointing 8-8 campaign and the super bowl champ Broncos certainly have a target on their backs this season. Denver is on a 2-5 ATS run as a home fave of 3.5 to 7 points and the Colts are on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points . 10* INDIANAPOLIS in the later games Sunday afternoon |
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09-18-16 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 37.5 | Top | 3-9 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #279/280 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks @ 4:05 PM ET Sunday - Being a contrarian, of course, certainly does not always work. However, it definitely qualifies as a key tool in the arsenal of a quality handicapper and "going against the masses" has played a key role in much of my success in the NFL through the years. This Sunday I go for it again with a situation I feel is offering tremendous value. This total opened up at a 40.5 and has dropped all the way down to a 37.5 as of Saturday. Of course I completely understand the move. The Rams offense was one of the worst in the league last year and then got shutout on Monday night at San Francisco. Seattle has one of the top defenses in the league and the Seahawks are coming off of a 12-10 win versus Miami last Sunday. Why the over here? The Seahawks are seeking revenge as they were surprisingly swept by the Rams last year. That said, Seattle won't take their foot off of the gas if they get up big in this game. Los Angeles has the reputation of being strong defensively but they slipped last year and the yards per game they allowed was much more indicative of this defense than the points allowed. The Rams also lost some key defensive players coming into this season. Look for Los Angeles to struggle to stop a very determined Seahawks offense here but the "surprise factor" here is that I expect Los Angeles to enjoy some surprising success on offense. Yes, the Rams totally laid an egg last week but this is their first home game after the move from St Louis and let's not forget that Jeff Fisher's Rams have scored at least 23 points in 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Seahawks. The last two times the Rams hosted the Seahawks they have averaged 31 points per game. After last week's embarrassment the Rams will play much better on offense this week and head coach Fisher has managed to surprise the Seahawks before. However, I don't see the Rams getting the upset this time but I do expect Seattle to put up a ton of points against this over-rated defense. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Rams in the later games Sunday afternoon |
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09-18-16 | A's v. Rangers OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #923/924 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Texas vs Oakland @ 3:05 ET Sunday - The A's rolled the Rangers 11-2 yesterday and the bats of Oakland should stay red hot today. The Athletics are 5-1 in their last 6 games and they have scored an average of 10 runs per game during this hot streak. Oakland historically has not enjoyed much success against the Rangers Colby Lewis but the A's are so hot at the plate that I expect that to change today. This is particularly likely because Lewis comes into this start having allowed 9 earned runs in just 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 6-1 in home starts made by Lewis this season. The A's will send a struggling Ross Detwiler to the mound for this one. The southpaw was rocked for 5 earned runs in less than 5 innings of work when he faced the Rangers 5 weeks ago. Detwiler is winless in his five road starts this season and he has compiled a 6.48 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in those outings. The over is 6-0 in the A's last 6 games and 14-4 in the Rangers last 18 games. This season, when off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more, Texas has gone 8-4 to the over in their very next game. Look for another slugfest at Globe Life Park in Arlington Sunday. Play the OVER in Texas Sunday afternoon. |
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09-17-16 | Astros v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - 10* Top Play OVER in Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros @ 9:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game had 6 runs by the halfway point as it was Houston 6-0 in the top of the 5th. However, the game ended that way and the result was an under as well as the Mariners first loss in 9 games. Keep in mind, Seattle had won 9 of their prior 10 games and averaged 7.3 runs per game in the process. I fully expect the Mariners lineup to bounce right back against Michael Fiers of the Astros. The Houston right-hander has an ugly 7.30 ERA and 2.27 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Fiers also has struggled on the road throughout this season as evidenced by his 5.62 ERA and 1.53 WHIP away from home. The over is 9-3 in the 12 road starts that Fiers has made this season. Also, Fiers has a 7.00 ERA and has given up 4 homers in the 9 innings he's logged against Seattle in two starts against them his career. He'll be opposed by James Paxton of the Mariners and the southpaw has been struggling. Not only are his current numbers a concern but Paxton gave up 6 earned runs in just 5 innings versus the Astros in his only start against them two months ago. The left-hander comes into this start having gone winless in his last three outings while compiling a 5.87 ERA and a 1.63 WHIP! He's facing a Houston team that is now 4-2 in their last 6 road games and the Astros have averaged 6 runs per game during this stretch. Before yesterday's under, the over was 13-6-1 in Houston's last 20 road games. I look for both teams to enjoy plenty of success at the plate tonight and will gladly fade the early line move here as this total went from an 8.5o to an 8u and this is offering great value on the over. Look for the over to improve to 5-1 this season when the Mariners are off of a shutout loss. 10* OVER in Seattle |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State v. Notre Dame -7 | Top | 36-28 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
Blowout Game of the Month - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #186 - 10* Top Play Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-) vs Michigan State Spartans @ 7:30 ET Saturday - Michigan State is ranked HIGHER than Notre Dame and yet the Spartans opened up as MORE than a TD underdog in this game! What does that tell you? Exactly! If you're a contrarian player like I am you are all over the Fighting Irish in this game. There is a reason the line may "look funny" and that's because Michigan State has had many successful seasons in recent years. However, as I stated before the season, the Spartans will be one of the teams I'll be looking to fade this year. Michigan State lost QB Connor Cook and also a ton of other returning starters on both sides of the ball. Even though the D should still be solid for the Spartans (despite losing a lot of starters) their offense is truly being "rebuilt" and they won't have the firepower to keep up with Notre Dame here. The Fighting Irish have already been tested as they had that tough battle with Texas to open up the season. As for the Spartans, they opened up against an FCS team, Furman, and then had a bye week last week. This has done very little to prepare Michigan State for the "onslaught" that this high-powered Notre Dame offense is going to throw at them Saturday. The Irish offense has averaged 33.5 points per game under Brian Kelly the last two seasons and they are already putting up big points this season (and not against FCS schools). The Spartans only beat Furman by 15 points in week one and the Irish didn't allow a TD to Nevada last week until late 4th quarter. It was a much better performance for the defense compared to week one against Texas but, again, the key here is that the Irish are at home and can put up points in a hurry and the Spartans offense just doesn't have the ability to "keep up" in a game like this. Don't be fooled by the line here. The Spartans will be exposed early this season and this is the first such opportunity so it is the right time to jump in. Michigan State is 2-6 ATS in September games the past 2+ seasons. The Irish are on an 11-2 SU run and 9-4 ATS run in home games! 10* NOTRE DAME Saturday evening |
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09-17-16 | Oregon v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
TOP Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #168 - 10* Top Play Nebraska Cornhuskers (-) vs Oregon Ducks @ 3:30 ET Saturday - Here you have an unranked Cornhuskers team taking on a ranked Ducks team and yet Nebraska is a 3 point favorite over Oregon. Of course this has many bettors flocking to Oregon but truly the odds makers knew what they were doing here. Nebraska is a team on the rise and the Ducks truly aren't the same team they were in recent seasons and yet Oregon remains very popular with bettors. Of course this helps drive value for us in spots like this as I expect Nebraska win this game by double digits. The Huskers have an edge here with head coach Mike Riley formerly coaching at Oregon State. As head man of the Beavers you have to know the Ducks program inside and out and that is an edge here. Cornhuskers QB Armstrong had a huge game last week through the air and Nebraska also delivered a huge game on the ground in the prior week. Certainly I respect the Oregon offense but their defense is very vulnerable and even got gashed by the ground game of Virginia and the Cavaliers certainly aren't known for that. The Huskers have the right personnel and systems to pound on the ground again like Nebraska teams of old but Armstrong also gives them the huge aerial threat that keeps defenses off balance. Note that Oregon had their worst season in a long time with a 9-4 showing last year and their defense allowed 485 yards per game and they now have a new defensive coordinator in Brady Hoke. This is a team that is regressing even though head coach Mark Helfrich is in his fourth year here. They just don't have the same talent level they had in the Chip Kelly years and they lost a ton of starters from last year's team. Conversely, Nebraska returned most of their starters from last year and, after a down year last year, they are poised to bounce back and have already covered each of their first two games while the Ducks are already 0-2 ATS. 10* NEBRASKA Saturday afternoon. |
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09-16-16 | Pirates v. Reds OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 110 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #905/906 - 10* Top Play OVER in Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh @ 7:10 ET Friday - Great American Ballpark is a hitter-friendly ballpark and, right now, the Pirates Ryan Vogelsong has certainly been a hitter-friendly pitcher. Keep in mind, Vogelsong is trying to come back from a devastating injury (that can certainly impact the psyche of a pitcher) as he was hit by a pitch near the eye this summer and it fractured bones and was truly an awful situation to witness. Certainly it is great to see Vogelsong come back from that and get back on the mound in live game action but I think the entire ordeal has impacted him greatly and, definitely, the numbers don't lie. Vogelsong was "okay" in his first few starts after he came back but, in his last three starts, the veteran right-hander has compiled an 11.08 ERA and a 2.00 WHIP. Look for more struggles Friday as he just faced the Reds Sunday and that certainly did not go well with 6 earned runs allowed in 4 innings and no strikeouts against 3 walks. Cincinnati will be "raring to go" after an off day yesterday followed a shutout loss Wednesday. Prior to that shutout the Reds had won 5 straight games and averaged 6 runs per game in the process. As for the Cincy pitcher tonight, an unproven Robert Stephenson takes to the mound. He had a strong start in his first start in September but that was his first MLB start since April. As expected, he regressed in his 2nd start of September and that came against the same Pirates team he is facing tonight. Stephenson allowed 4 earned runs in just 3 innings of work against the Bucs on Saturday. Pittsburgh exploded for 15 runs yesterday at Philadelphia and will be looking to build on that momentum tonight. The Pirates are averaging 5 runs and 10 hits per game over their last 11 games. The over is 41-28 in Pittsburgh games when they are off of a win this season. Also, the over is 63-43 in Reds games against right-handed starters. 10* OVER in Cincinnati Friday evening |
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09-16-16 | Montreal +10 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #291 - 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7 ET Friday - Both teams are off of losses but there is a significant scheduling edge for Montreal here. The Alouettes played last Friday so they've a full week off whereas Hamilton just played on Sunday so they are playing on short rest this week. Adding to the advantage for the Als is that they have a bye week on deck so they will certainly "leave it all on the field" in this week's match-up! Another reason Montreal is certain to give it their all here is the fact they were embarrassed 31 to 7 at home when these teams met back in July. That means a little payback is on order here and I'll gladly grab the double digits with the road dog that has the situational and motivational edges. The Alouettes are showing that they are completely behind their new QB Rakeem Cato as Kevin Glenn is now in Winnipeg with the Blue Bombers. Cato played quite well last week with completing about 75% of his passes and throwing no picks while Tiger-Cats QB Zach Collaros and the Hamilton offense struggled last week at Toronto. The Alouettes have had a frustrating season but anything can happen in the tightly packed East Division and this spot favors the big road dog in a big way. With Montreal a double digit dog in this one, that is the way to go here. 10* MONTREAL Friday |
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09-15-16 | Blue Jays v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #969/970 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 10:05 ET Thursday - This total opened up at a 9 and has already dropped to an 8.5 as of early gameday morning. This is offering extra value on the over here and I won't hesitate to step in. Even though J.A. Happ is a solid southpaw who has had a great season for the Blue Jays, the Angels have always given him trouble. Happ is 0-5 with a 7.83 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP in the five starts he has made against the Angels in his career. The Jays left-hander comes into this start having struggled in his recent road outings with a 5.51 ERA in his last three starts away from home. Happ will be opposed by the Angels Daniel Wright. He has struggled above the AA level in the minors this season. For AAA Louisville this season he was hit at a .314 clip and compiled a 6.13 ERA. Keep in mind that is against minor league hitters! It's no wonder that in his limited action at the MLB level this year (his rookie season) he has compiled a 7.50 ERA and been hit at a .388 clip. This includes his stats with the Reds before he came over to the Angels. Look for Wright's struggles to continue tonight as the Blue Jays are looking to bounce back off of an 8-1 loss and are in a dogfight with the other top contenders in the AL East. While the Angels are simply wrapping up a disappointing season, they do have a powerful lineup with a number of hitters also having enjoyed success against Toronto's Happ. That is why I am forecasting this game to turn into a back and forth slugfest. The over is 3-0 in Wright's starts this season. Also, there have been only 2 unders in Happ's last 8 road starts. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Angels Thursday |
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09-14-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
AL Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Game #919/920 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - This match-up was 7-1 yesterday in the top of the 4th inning but unbelievably did not end up going over the total as the game ended up an 8-1 Minnesota win. Look for the Twins sticks to stay hot tonight but the difference-maker here is that the Tigers bats will join the party. Detroit should have no trouble with the offerings of Minny's Tyler Duffey. The right-hander has made 9 starts since the All Star break and he's been hit at a .333 clip while compiling a 3-5 record and an ugly 7.97 ERA. Duffey got rocked for 6 earned runs in only 3 innings in a late August start against the Tigers and they now get a quick 'second look' at him here just 3 weeks later. Detroit has a pitching "concern" of their own here on the mound Wednesday. Anibal Sanchez is on the mound and he just hasn't been able to shake his inconsistency this season. The Tigers right-hander has given up 21 hits in less than 16 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Sanchez also has seen his strikeout numbers dwindling with just 11 K's in his last 22 and 2/3 innings. The righty has a 5.97 ERA and 1.50 WHIP on the season and Duffey has a 6.13 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the year. The Twins have averaged 5.5 runs in their last dozen game. The Tigers have not been hitting as well of late but they will be able to respond against a struggling hurler today. Keep in mind, Detroit is hitting .267 against right-handers this season which ranks the Tigers 5th out of all 30 MLB teams. 10* OVER in Detroit Wednesday |
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09-14-16 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Game #905/906 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs New York Mets @ 4:05 ET Wednesday - Yesterday's game totaled 7 runs and stayed just under the total. This total opened up at an 8.5 but is up to a 9 as of very early Wednesday morning. Even though the total has moved up half a run, I still see excellent value with the over in this spot. Robert Gsellman of the Mets and Tanner Roark of the Nationals just faced each other last week in New York and that game only totaled 4 runs. However, getting a quick second look in a span of only about a week and a half is a big advantage for the hitters. That said, neither one of these hurlers truly possess overpowering stuff. Roark has surprised this season after going 4-7 with opponents hitting .279 against him last season. What I am seeing from Roark is that the innings have piled up on the season and he may be tiring a bit at this point. In his last two starts against winning teams he has given up 7 runs (6 earned) on 11 hits and 7 walks in just 10 innings of work. As for the Mets Gsellman, he surprisingly held the Nationals to just 1 earned run but in his other two starts since coming into the rotation he allowed 4 earned runs in each outing. Washington will take advantage of having just seen Gsellman last week. The Mets are 20-11 to the over in games where they are a road dog of +150 to +175. The Nats will be playing their 50th day game of the season and so far only 19 of those have stayed under the total. The Nationals were on a 7-1 run before yesterday's loss and they have averaged 5.6 runs per game in the 7 victories. The Mets are 8-2 in their last 10 games and they have averaged 5.5 runs per game in the 8 victories. 10* OVER in Washington Wednesday |
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09-13-16 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #959/960 - 10* Top Play OVER in St Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs @ 8:15 ET Tuesday - Not only is the Cubs Jason Hammel currently struggling but those struggles, as usual, are mostly occurring on the road. The Cubs right-hander has been great at home this season but, on the road Hammel is 5-7 with a 5.26 ERA away from home. Hitters are hitting .286 against Hammel when he is on the road and that is more than 100 points higher than when he is at Wrigley Field. The Cardinals very nearly got no-hit by the Cubs Kyle Hendricks last night so the Cards hitters will be ready to bounce back large against the struggling Hammel who has given up 41 hits in the 20 and 1/3 innings of work on the road over his 5 road starts since July 1st. His road ERA during this 2+ month stretch is 12.84 ERA. Hammel is not the only pitcher likely to struggle tonight. The Cardinals will have Jaime Garcia on the mound for this one and the southpaw has seen the Cards lose each of his last 4 starts while he has compiled an ugly 8.06 ERA in his last 5 starts! Only 1 of his last 5 outings have seen Garcia produce a quality start. The left-hander has been roughed up in each of his last three home starts and the Cubs .449 slugging percentage against southpaws this season ranks them 4th out of all 30 teams and their .355 on base percentage versus lefties ranks them #1 in the National League! Each of Garcia's last 5 starts have gone over the total while the over is 5-2 in the last 7 road starts Hammel has made. Even with yesterday's under, the over is still 16-8 in the Cardinals last 24 games against teams with a winning record. The over is 33-22 in Chicago's divisional games this season. With 9 being a win number thanks to a low total posted on this game, I won't hesitate to get involved here. 10* OVER in St Louis |
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09-13-16 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach MLB Game #969/970 - 10* Top Play OVER in Detroit Tigers vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET Tuesday - With 9 available on this total as of early Tuesday morning, there is exceptional value in this spot. In what would likely be a surprise to many, considering the Twins have the worst record in all of baseball, Minnesota ranks #2 in the American League for slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers with a .438 mark on the season! Though Matt Boyd has allowed just 2 earned runs in each of his last two starts, the southpaw gave up 15 hits in the 11 innings spanning those two outings. Also, he's facing Minny tonight for the 3rd time since the All Star break and familiarity is almost always an edge to the hitters. The more they see of a pitchers repertoire of pitches, the better it is for them! Minnesota hit two homers off of Boyd when they saw him in late August. The Twins will have a struggling Kyle Gibson on the mound for this one. He is 3-6 with a 5.84 ERA in his 14 night starts this season. Also, he has been getting particularly crushed since the All Star break. Opponents hit .348 against him in August and are already hitting .354 against him in his first two September starts. All 8 of his starts since August 1st have gone over the total. Yesterday's game stayed under the total as the Twins had a surprisingly tough time with lefty Daniel Norris. Minnesota is still 24-13 to the over in their games against left-handed starters this season and I expect them to enjoy success today with the added benefit of facing southpaws in back to back starts. The over is also 14-6 in Tuesday games for Minny and 14-7 in Tuesday games for the Tigers this season. 10* OVER in Detroit |
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09-12-16 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies @ 9:40 ET Monday - Tyler Anderson has been pitching very well for the Rockies. However, the Diamondbacks are hitting .274 against left-handed pitchers this season and that ranks them #1 in the National League against southpaws. Also, the Dbacks did get to Anderson for 8 hits in less than 6 innings against him when they faced him in June. Now Arizona will be facing him for a 2nd time and should enjoy some success at the plate just like the Phillies did when they saw Anderson for a 2nd time this season. The Diamondbacks will have Shelby Miller on the mound and the right-hander is facing a Rockies team that is hitting .276 against right-handed pitching this season and that is good for the #1 spot in the National League. Miller has lost both his starts since returning to the majors and he also has an ugly 9.19 ERA in his three starts against the Rockies this season. Miller is 0-7 in home starts this season and the over has gone 5-2 in his starts at Chase Field. The over is 38-23 in Rockies games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs in recent seasons. The over is 46-24 in Diamondbacks home games this season. Also, the over is 12-3 in the Dbacks/Colorado match-ups this season! In the last three seasons combined the over is 33-15 in Diamondbacks Monday games. More of the same tonight! 10* OVER in Arizona Monday. |
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09-11-16 | Giants +1 v. Cowboys | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach NFL Game #473 - 10* Top Play New York Giants (+) @ Dallas Cowboys @ 4:25 ET Sunday - The Cowboys lost 11 of their 12 games without Tony Romo last season and, of course, that is the big story line coming into the new season after he got hurt in the preseason. One of the big keys here is that Dak Prescott is being hailed for his preseason performance with Dallas and that he should hit the ground running for the Cowboys here in Game one. The problem with that angle is that regular season is nothing like preseason. The trouble for Prescott is not going to be his athletic ability or his arm strength or his legs. The problem is going to be making proper adjustments to all the defensive sets he's going to see with stunts, blitzes, etc that are the type of things Prescott did not see in the preseason. The Giants offense can take advantage of a Cowboys defense that is missing some starters early this season due to suspension. With head coach McAdoo (former Packers OC), a Giants offense that ranked in the top ten of the league last season is likely to make strides again this season as they've added even more firepower. The defense also looks improved after a big spend in free agency and the Cowboys have only covered 3 of their last 14 games. Also, Dallas has long been known for struggling in their home stadium and they are actually and ugly 1-7 ATS in home openers! These teams are bitter rivals and the Giants have lost to the Cowboys in a season opener 3 of the last 4 years and now it is payback time as NY has the big edges in this season opener. Let's also not forget we're fading a Dallas team here that won only 4 games last season and that has struggled so badly when Romo is not under center. More of the same here. 10* NEW YORK GIANTS |
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09-11-16 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
AL Total of the Month - Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers @ 3:35 ET Sunday - The Angels will have have Jered Weaver on the mound. The veteran right-hander did have to exit his most recent start after being hit by a line drive. Not only could that be impacting to his psyche in this start, his overall numbers have not been impressive so I expect a return to "normalcy" for Weaver and that means he should get hit hard here. Weaver gave up 5 earned runs in 4 innings in his most recent start which was his first September outing. In August Weaver compiled a 5.45 ERA and was hit at a .357 clip so certainly he was fortunate that his ERA wasn't uglier! This season, in home starts, Weaver has been hit at a .316 clip so I don't expect things to improve against Texas today. The Rangers will have Colby Lewis on the mound and he's just coming back from the DL. The way his rehab assignment went (hit hard in the minors) I certainly don't expect things to go well for him here against a tough Angels lineup. LA got their sticks going again yesterday but fell short in the 8-5 loss to Texas. The over is now 11-1 in the Rangers last 12 games! Also, Lewis has allowed 13 earned runs in his last 16 innings against the Angels. Look for him to struggle again here and Weaver will continue his trend of being very hittable as well and that spells o-v-e-r in this one. 10* OVER in Los Angeles Angels Sunday |
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09-11-16 | Chargers v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
#1 O/U Crusher - Rickenbach NFL Game #463/464 - 10* Top Play OVER the total in Kansas City Chiefs vs San Diego Chargers @ 1 ET Sunday - What I wrote about the Chargers in my AFC West preview before the season certainly holds true here. As noted in that preview, San Diego has been an “under” team in terms of totals in recent seasons but with the offense staying solid (led by Phillip Rivers) and the defense in for a drop-off (departure of Eric Weddle and other significant starters), this team could be in for some explosive, high-scoring games. I stated in that this could be particularly true early this season as there will most certainly be an “adjustment phase” on the defensive side of the ball. With that said, this early season match-up with Kansas City certainly fits the bill because the Chiefs averaged 27.8 points per game in winning their last 10 games of the regular season last year. Kansas City's head coach will be out to show everyone that the Chiefs offense will be just fine even though last year's offensive coordinator Doug Pederson is now coaching the Philadelphia Eagles. However, on the other side of the ball the Chiefs did lose some depth from last year's solid defense and the injury to star LB Justin Houston certainly hurts. The offense has been ahead of the defense to start the season each of the last two years under coach Reid as the over has gone a combined 6-2 in their first 4 games of each of the two seasons. As for the Chargers, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7.5 points under coach Mike McCoy, the over has gone 5-1 (83%) in regular season action. 10* OVER the total in Kansas City. |
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09-10-16 | Virginia Tech v. Tennessee OVER 53 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #367/368 - National TV Best Bet - 10* Top Play OVER 52.5 in Tennessee Volunteers vs Virginia Tech Hokies in Bristol, TN @ 8 ET Saturday - This total is currently in the 52.5 range as of Friday afternoon and we're getting great line value here with the over for multiple reasons. For one thing, there are likely to be 150,000 fans (a record!) for this College Football game since it is being played at Bristol Motor Speedway in Tennessee. These teams both draw so well and this game is being played about halfway between Knoxville, TN and Blacksburg, VA. The point is that it is absolutely going to be an electric atmosphere and the weather is going to be ideal as well with light winds. Another reason we're getting value here is because both teams under-performed last week. Even though Tennessee got the win they are very disappointed (of course) with only putting up 319 yards of offense as a 3 TD fave against Appalachian State last week. Of course the Volunteers likely were peeking ahead to this game and the same is true for Virginia Tech. The Hokies new aggressive fast-paced offense only put up 33 points against Liberty last week as a 31 point favorite. Under new head coach Justin Fuente the pace on offense will be frenetic as he brought over his up-tempo fast-paced style from Memphis. The Hokies did return 8 starters from last year's offense and they had 48 runs and 41 pass attempts last week so look out! The defense though could be an issue for the Hokies with only 6 starters back and they already had regressed last season with one of their worst performances (26.3 points allowed per game) in the Bud Foster era as a defensive coordinator. The over is 7-2 in the Hokies last 9 non-conference games and Virginia Tech is 6-3 to the over in their last 9 games against the SEC. The Volunteers are a perfect 3-0 to the over i their last 3 played on a neutral field. This one, in front of 150,000 fans should have plenty of fireworks as both squads come into this one emphasizing offense. The Vols are not happy at all about their production last week and the Hokies are going to run their offense at a fast-pace this season as we already saw last week. 10* OVER the total in Tennessee Saturday night |
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09-10-16 | North Carolina -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 48-23 | Win | 101 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #373 - Non-Conf Game of the Year - 10* Top Play North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5 @ Illinois @ 7:30 ET Saturday - North Carolina put up quite a battle at Georgia last week but, after leading 24-14, the Tar Heels then allowed the final 19 points of the game to the Bulldogs. I had Georgia last week and was not surprised by the end result. However, what did surprise me is that, even though Heels starting QB Trubisky struggled some, the Tar Heels truly battled hard against a quality opponent and they now take a big step down in class as they face Illinois. Of course the Illini are now led by head coach Lovie Smith who had spent many years in the NFL. While I have plenty of respect for Mr. Smith it is going to take awhile for him to build this team in the way he wants. Illinois is off of an impressive win in Week 1 but that came against an over-matched Murray State team. Also, the Illini certainly were also helped by a turnover factor of 3-0 in favor of Illinois. The line on this Week 2 game opened up at a 10. Of course the betting markets see a road fave of double digits that ended up blowing their game at Georgia and they see an Illinois team off of a 52-3 win and now a home dog and we all see what then happens to this line. As of Friday afternoon it is down to a 7.5 and though I'd like to have a 7 here it is "go time" for me with this one. While the Illini may be feeling a little too good about themselves after last week's dominating win the Tar Heels come into this game very hungry for a win and they only have James Madison on deck. They blasted Illinois 48-14 last season but coach Larry Fedora has his troops ready for this one and certainly has warned his team that this will be a different Illini team with Lovie Smith at the helm. The problem for Lovie is he returns only 9 starters from last year's team and they are projected to be among the bottom feeders in the Big Ten while the Tar Heels are expected to finish near the top of the ACC. The Illini only returned one starter from their back seven on defense this season and they're trying to stop a UNC offense that ranked 2nd in the ACC and 18th in the nation last year with 487 yards per game. As you can see, this should prove to be a road rout! 10* North Carolina -7.5 Saturday evening |
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09-10-16 | Royals v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #925/926 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 runs in Chicago White Sox vs Kansas City Royals @ 7:10 ET Saturday - Yesterday's game between these clubs went over the total and that was the 5th straight over in Royals games and Kansas City's 11th over in their last 12 contests. Based on the wind blowing out at U.S Cellular Field this evening and based on a very favorable pitching match-up for plenty of hitting, another over should be in the offing tonight. The White Sox will have James Shields on the mound and he has a 12.07 ERA in the 28 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 7 starts. The Royals will have Edinson Volquez on the mound and the right-hander has had only one quality starts in his last 8 outings. Quality starts are 3 earned runs or less in a start lasting at least 6 innings. Volquez is struggling as he has a 6.38 ERA in his last 8 outings. The White Sox have had 7 overs in their last 8 games and Volquez has been rocked for 17 hits in his 12 innings against the ChiSox this season. The over is 14-8 in White Sox Saturday games this season. The over is 8-3 in Royals road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs this season. Look for more of the same in this one as the hot hitting continues for both of these clubs and they continue their recent "over" trends. 10* OVER in Chicago White Sox Saturday evening. |
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09-09-16 | Montreal v. BC OVER 48.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #483/484 - Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 48.5 in BC Lions vs Montreal Alouettes @ 10 ET Friday - The Alouettes are turning to Rakeem Cato at the pivot for this one. Look for the 24 year old QB to provide a much-needed spark to the Alouettes offense. Montreal will also get a boost with the return of their leading receiver Duron Carter for this one. He is back from serving a one game suspension and ranks 8th in the league for receiving yards this season. This is even after missing last week's game. Look for Cato and Carter to have a big impact on this game and they could be catching the BC defense at the perfect time. The Lions are off of a successful road swing back east where they picked up a pair of wins and only allowed 18 points per game. With a bye on deck for next week the Lions are likely to get caught looking ahead to the bye week and a big game with division rival Edmonton that looms on deck. The offense will keep rolling along though as the Lions put up 38 points on the Alouettes in Montreal earlier this season. Now BC gets the Als at home and the Lions want to make up for only scoring 9 points in their mos recent home game. BC came into that game having averaged 41 points per game in their 4 prior games and they followed up that game by going on the road and picking up a pair of road wins. In other words, the 9-point showing was most certainly a fluke but BC knows they need to do something about it today. Look for the Lions to push the tempo in this non-divisional match-up. The over is 2-0 this season (and 4-1 the last 3 seasons) when BC enters a game on rest of 8 days. Look for the over to improve to 3-1 this season in Montreal road games with a posted total between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER in BC Friday |
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09-09-16 | Indians v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #973/974 - 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Indians @ 8:10 ET Friday - The over is an amazing 30-7-1 in the Twins last 38 games including 8 in a row and 14 of their last 16. The Indians also have been trending to the over with 6 of their last 8 games going over the total. Danny Salazar gets the start for Cleveland and he has pitched well recently but Minnesota has given him trouble this season. The Twins have faced Salazar twice and have gotten to him for 9 earned runs in less than 7 innings of work. Included in the dominance has been a trio of homers for Minnesota. The Twins will have Tyler Duffey on the mound and he has also struggled against the Indians recently with 9 earned runs allowed in about 12 innings of work spanning his last two starts versus Cleveland. In Duffey's 12 home starts this season, only 3 have stayed under the total. The over is 7-1 in Salazar's last 8 starts. The Indians have scored an average of 6 runs per game in their last 9 games. The Twins have averaged scoring 6.2 runs per game in their last 9 games. More of the same tonight between these two divisional foes. 10* OVER in Minnesota Friday evening |
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09-09-16 | Cubs -123 v. Astros | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #979 - 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line -123 @ Houston Astros @ 8:10 ET Friday - The Cubs have lost two straight games. Since the All Star break Chicago has been one of the hottest teams in the league and they have not lost three straight games a single time! The past two months the Cubs have NEVER lost three straight games and they have their "stopper" on the mound Friday with ace Jon Lester. The southpaw is 15-4 on the season with a 2.61 ERA. Also, the Cubs have won 8 of his 9 starts since the All Star break. The Astros will have Joe Musgrove on the mound and he has an ugly 5.73 ERA on the season and Houston has lost 4 of the 6 starts he has made this season. The Astros are hitting just .246 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 13th out of the 15 AL teams. This is a pitching mismatch and the Cubs improve to an incredible 15-3 this season when playing with a day off while also improving to a fantastic 14-4 in interleague games! 10* Top Play Chicago Cubs Money Line Friday |
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09-08-16 | Rays +114 v. Yankees | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911 - Divisional Dominator - 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line +115 @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 ET Thursday - Both teams are off of wins yesterday but the Rays are still just 59-79 on the season while the Yankees are 73-65 and certainly still have playoff hopes alive. Why then the play on Tampa Bay here? The keys are two-fold. First off I like this pitching match-up. However, even more importantly is the motivational factor here. Being in last place in the division, the Rays could have easily thrown in the towel on the season. However, Tampa Bay certainly still has the motivation of being a "spoiler" to the Yankees and their playoff hopes. After all that is what division rivals strive for when they've had a down season...at least be a "spoiler" late in the year. I also want to add that the Yankees lineup is not what it used to be and the bottom half of the order is particularly weak. That's why I look for Alex Cobb, even though it is just his 2nd MLB start since Tommy John surgery, to have another solid start here. Last week Cobb held a solid Blue Jays lineup to just 2 earned runs in 5 innings while walking only 1 but striking out 7. To me, the line on today's game looked a little "funny" with the Yankees being such a small home favorite even though the public looks and sees a team (the Yanks) that needs to win. As long-time followers know, I like to be a contrarian. Hence, a big play on the Rays today and we fade CC Sabathia. Even though he's pitched better of late, the Yankees veteran southpaw only struck out 1 in his most recent start. Also, at home this season, Sabathia is an ugly 2-8 with a 5.20 ERA. I'll gladly back the Rays in this "spoiler" spot. 10* Tampa Bay Rays Money Line Thursday evening |
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09-07-16 | Royals v. Twins OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #975/976 - AL Central Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 ET Wednesday - This total opened up at a 9 but has dropped to an 8.5 and this is no surprise since the Royals have Danny Duffy on the mound. However, this is a classic case of getting line value where we should NOT be getting it and I'll jump on it. Duffy has great full season numbers but, in his last two starts he has given up 11 earned runs in less than 11 innings of work. Also, in looking at Duffy's last three starts, he has allowed 26 hits in about 17 innings of work! Wednesday he faces a Twins team that simply has been an "over machine" this season. With last night's 10-3 loss going over the total, the over is now 13-2 in Minnesota's last 15 games. Also, against left-handed starters this season the over is 23-12 in Twins games. As a home dog in a price range of +125 to +150, the over is 31--13 in Minnesota games the past three seasons combined. With Kyle Gibson getting the start for the Twins tonight, all these over trends should remain intact. Each of Gibson's last 7 starts have gone over the total as he was rocked to the tune of a 6.62 ERA and .348 batting average against in August and he started off September with an ugly outing last week. Gibson gave up 5 earned runs on 9 hits in less than 6 innings of work against the White Sox. The Twins bullpen has been struggling and, last night, allowed 7 runs in the top of the 9th. The strong 'over trend' has every reason to continue tonight as KC has averaged 6.5 runs per game in their last 12 games and Minny has averaged 7 runs per game in their last 6 games. 10* OVER in Minnesota Wednesday night |
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09-07-16 | Angels v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #969/970 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Oakland vs Los Angeles Angels @ 3:35 ET Wednesday - On Monday the A's started a highly regarded pitching prospect, Raul Alcantara, and he got rocked in a 10-7 loss to the Angels. On Wednesday afternoon, another highly regarded pitching prospect, Jharel Cotten, takes to the mound for the Athletics and I expect another high-scoring contest to result. Yesterday's game notwithstanding, the Angels have been been red hot. Los Angeles had won 10 of their last 12 games and averaged scoring 6 runs per game in the process. As for the A's, they should have no trouble scoring big at home in this one. Oakland will be facing Alex Meyer and the 6'9 right-hander has struggled so far in his limited big league appearances. This does not come as a big surprise as Meyer compiled a 4.79 ERA and was hit at a .281 clip in AAA action at the minor league level last year. Oakland Coliseum is a pitchers' park but with this being an afternoon game the air will not be so "heavy" as it does tend to be in the night games on the west coast. Of course drier air (plus the wind blowing out toward right field at a fairly good clip) should help our cause here. Meyer has already given up 7 walks and 12 hits (including 3 homers) in his 6 innings at the MLB level. 10* OVER 9 in Oakland Wednesday afternoon |
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09-06-16 | Giants v. Rockies -116 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -116 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #912 - Blowout Smash - 10* Top Play Colorado Rockies Money Line -115 vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET Tuesday - The Rockies won yesterday's game 6-0 over the Giants. This may have many looking at San Francisco here to bounce back. However, this pitching match-up favors Colorado in a big way. Tyler Anderson gets the start for the Rockies and the southpaw has been piling up strikeouts (a key for success at Coors Field) with 23 in the 18 and 1/3 innings spanning his last three starts. The Giants will be starting Jeff Samardzija whom has seen his strikeout numbers going south since the All Star break. Also, the San Francisco right-hander is giving the Rockies a 3rd look at him this season while the Giants hitters are seeing Anderson only for the 2nd time in his career. SF has been struggling away from home as they've gone 7-18 (.280 winning percentage!) in their last 25 road games! Conversely, the Rockies have won 8 of their last 12 road games. Also, over the past 5 weeks the Giants have only faced 5 left-handed starters and San Francisco has lost all 5 of those games. More of the same tonight. 10* COLORADO Money Line Tuesday night |
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09-06-16 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 101 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #917/918 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET Tuesday - With yesterday's 7-3 Rays loss to the Orioles, the over is now an incredible 23-6 in Tampa Bay's last 29 games! Even though Jake Odorizzi has been pitching very well for the Rays, this will be the 4th time this season that the Orioles have seen him and they've gotten to him for 22 hits in 16 innings in the first three starts he has made against them. Baltimore will have Yovani Gallardo on the mound and he has given up 26 hits in the less than 16 innings he has logged against Tampa in his last three starts versus the Rays. Gallardo comes into this start having been absolutely crushed in his most recent road start. He has particularly struggled on the road this season with a 7.18 ERA and a 1.75 WHIP and the over is 7-4 in his road starts this year. As a road dog of +125 to +150, the Orioles are 11-4 to the over this season. As you can see, there is every reason to believe the strong over trend for the Rays improves to 24-6 tonight! 10* OVER 8.5 in Tampa Bay Tuesday evening |
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09-05-16 | Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #977/978 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Cleveland Indians vs Houston Astros @ 7;10 ET Monday - The Indians have won 6 straight games and have averaged 6.6 runs in their last 5 games and are on a perfect 4-0 run to the over. As for the Astros, their bats have also definitely picked up the pace of late as Houston has averaged 5.2 runs per game in going 7-3 in their last 10 games. The over is on a perfect 3-0 run in Astros games. Michael Fiers gets the start for Houston and, his last road start notwithstanding, he has not been the same pitchers away from home that he has been at Minute Maid Park this season. On the road this season, the Astros are only 4-7 in Fiers 11 starts and he has compiled an ugly 5.80 ERA in those outings. I look for him to struggle again here while Mike Clevinger of the Indians is also likely to have challenges of his own this evening. Clevinger has more walks than strikeouts in his last two starts and the over is 4-1 in his starts this season. Looking back at Fiers road struggles it is no surprise that the over is 9-2 in his 11 starts away from home this year. The Indians are 20-7 to the over in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs this season. The Tribe are expected to make this a bullpen day with Clevinger making his first start in 3 weeks. That said, the Indians pen wasn't exactly sharp in yesterday's game versus Miami. More of the same tonight as the Astros stay hot at the plate but so too do the Indians. 10* OVER in Cleveland Monday evening. |
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09-05-16 | Edmonton +7 v. Calgary | Top | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #219 - Daytime Dominator - 10* Edmonton Eskimos +7 @ Calgary Stampeders @ 3 ET Monday - The Stampeders won the Grey Cup in 2014. The Eskimos won it last year. In getting there in 2015 Edmonton had to get by Calgary to get there and they did just that by winning their 3rd straight match-up with them in playoff action on November 22nd before winning it all on November 29th. Now, in their first match-up of this season (and the annual Battle of Alberta on Labour Day), the Stampeders certainly are hungry for revenge and they have the home field edge for this one as well. However, a key aspect I see here is that Calgary relies heavily on protection of their QB to make this offense "go" and they've got an offensive line injury at centre. This is forcing another lineman to take over the centre position and it's thrusting a rookie into play at right tackle. The Eskimos defensive line has some players who are very strong when it comes to creating chaos in the backfield by quickly getting past the opposition's offensive line. In this case I look for that o play a key role in this game as Edmonton is just as hungry as Calgary for this game. Yes it is the Stampeders with revenge but the Eskimos are the defending Grey Cup champs who have had some disappointment early this season. Edmonton has responded by winning three straight and they are relishing this opportunity to take down their provincial rivals and, in doing so, they would be knocking off the team that is at the top of the entire league so far this season. That said, I'll gladly grab the big points being offered here. 10* EDMONTON on Monday afternoon |
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09-04-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #913/914 - NL Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 12 runs in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 4:10 ET Sunday - Yesterday and I had the over in Colorado which won for most. It opened up at a 12 and the game landed on 13. It did move to a 12.5 rather quickly but did not move to a 13 until about an hour before first pitch. In any event it was a win for most and I expect another huge win today. This match-up is perfect for a high-scoring slugfest as you have the dry air of the Mile High city with the wind blowing out to center field at a good clip on a mild afternoon at Coors Field. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.5 runs per game in their last 11 games. Also, the Rockies have averaged 7.5 runs per game in their last 8 games. Jon Gray gets the start for Colorado and the last time he faced Arizona he allowed 4 earned runs on 10 hits while striking out just 1 in 5 and 1/3 innings. Gray is off of a solid outing in his last start but he gave up 20 earned runs in 18 innings spanning his 4 prior starts! The Diamondbacks will have Archie Bradley on the mound for this one and he earned just 1 victory in his 6 August starts while compiling a 7.14 ERA and getting hit at a .331 clip! The over is 13-6-1 in Bradley's 20 starts this season and the over was a on a perfect 4-0 run in Gray's last 4 starts before his last start stayed under the total. 12 of the 15 meetings between these clubs have gone over the total this season and I see no reason for that to change today. Ideal weather conditions help the cause here and both teams continue pounding out hits. 10* OVER in Colorado late Sunday afternoon |
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09-04-16 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +4.5 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #218 - Daytime Dominator - 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders +4.5 vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET Sunday - The Roughriders ONE AND ONLY home game between Week 8 and Week 13 is this one. They want to make it count and Saskatchewan is also catching Winnipeg off of a huge road win at Montreal last week. Even though the Roughriders have, by far, the worst record in the CFL, they are coming off of a strong effort at Edmonton last week. I can see many being enticed into playing the Blue Bombers here and laying a rather short number on the road. After all, Winnipeg is 4-1 on the road this season while Saskatchewan is 1-8 overall this season. Don't fall for the "trap line" here on the Blue Bombers as the Roughriders are quite likely to pull off the shocker here at home as this one is all about situational handicapping. The scheduling situation (for both teams) and the line (surprising # on this one) is all you need to know here. However, I will also add that Winnipeg is on a 2-5 ATS run as a favorite while the Roughriders have a long-term 73-53 ATS mark as an underdog in a range of +3.5 to +9.5 points. Grab the points here! 10* Saskatchewan Sunday afternoon |
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09-04-16 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #921/922 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 runs in Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers @ 2:15 ET Sunday - Kansas City is hitting .274 against left-handed pitching this season and that ranks them 5th out of all 30 teams. The Royals should have no trouble with the offerings of Tigers southpaw Daniel Norris who took 105 pitches just to get through 5 innings in his most recent start. Norris is getting hit at a .303 clip this season so he is VERY fortunate to only have a 3.86 ERA on the season. The lefty just faced the Royals last month and he gave up 6 hits and walked 4 while striking out only 1 in 5 and 1/3 innings of work. Norris was fortunate to escape with only allowing 1 earned run in that outing. He won't be so fortunate in the rematch. The Tigers will also do their fair share of damage at the plate in this one as they "tee off" against Edinson Volquez of the Royals. The KC right-hander gave up 5 earned runs when he last faced Detroit (in June) and he also comes into this start having allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits in the less than 8 innings spanning his last 2 home starts! Overall, Volquez starts have resulted in just 1 under in his last 7 outings! Opponents hit .338 against Volquez in August so you have two very hittable pitchers squaring off in a hitter-friendly park with the wind blowing out to left field at a good clip for this game. Add it all up and that equates to what should be an easy over. 10* OVER in Kansas City Sunday afternoon |
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09-03-16 | BYU v. Arizona +1.5 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #206 - Game of the Month - 10* Top Play Arizona Wildcats +2.5 vs Brigham Young Cougars @ 10:30 PM ET Saturday - Tremendous line move here as the Wildcats have gone all the way from being 2.5 point faves to being 2.5 point dogs in this match-up. I do understand what many are looking at here. BYU is a veteran team and has the much better defense in comparing numbers with that of Arizona. Also, the Cougars "veteran" team is defined by a lot of returning starters on the offensive side of the ball including a big, experienced offensive line. This is viewed as a mismatch going against the smallish defensive line of the Wildcats. However, here are the keys that combat all this. Speedy linemen have a way of shooting the gaps when facing bigger opposition and speed kills. Arizona's defensive line may surprise with how they perform in this game. Additionally, Rich Rodriguez is in his fifth year as the head coach at Arizona while Kalani Sitake is not only in his first year as BYU's head coach, it is the first year he's been a head coach anywhere. Additionally, being an independent means the Cougars don't have conference games to look forward to. What motivates a team like this is a game like exactly what they have on deck next week. Brigham Young has a huge revenge match-up in their "Holy War" battle at Utah. The Cougars were absolutely embarrassed in last year's 35-28 bowl loss to the Utes in which BYU was down 35-0 in the first quarter. They can't help but have their sights set on that upcoming big-game match-up next week especially since the Cougars have now lost five straight to Utah! Arizona will have the home field edge (though this game is being played at the University of Phoenix Stadium) and the Wildcats are a Pac 12 offensive juggernaut. The Cats averaged 37 points per game last season and BYU (already peeking ahead to the Utes revenge game) simply is not going to be able to keep up in this one. Look for Rodriguez to outcoach Sitake in the latter's head coaching debut. 10* ARIZONA late Saturday night |
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09-03-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #961/962 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 12 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:10 ET Saturday - The Rockies will have Tyler Chatwood on the mound tonight as he makes his first start since coming off of the disabled list. The right-hander is facing the wrong team at the wrong time. Coming off of the DL is never easy but especially when you have to face a team that has gotten to you for 6 earned runs in 6 innings the last time you faced them. Indeed Chatwood will be tested tonight and, after last night's 14-7 Rockies win, the over is now 10-3 (77%) this season in match-ups between these clubs. Chatwood allowed 23 earned runs in 41 and 2/3 innings in his 8 starts that preceded going on the disabled list and walks were an issue for him too. Amazingly, there has been just one under in the dozen home starts Chatwood has made this season even though he has a 5.43 ERA at Coors Field this year. In other words, the trending to the under is a fluke. Being opposed by Braden Shipley tonight should help the cause here in terms of tonight's game getting over the total. It will be his first start ever at hitter-friendly Coors Field and he's off a start where he allowed just one earned run versus Cincinnati but note he walked 4 while striking out just 1 in that outing. Additionally, prior to that outing he was rocked for 13 earned runs in his 2 prior starts. Look for more of the same tonight as the Rockies have averaged 9.6 runs per game in their last 5 home games and the Dbacks are averaging a solid 5.2 runs per game in their last 10 games. The over is 12-4 this season in Arizona games when they are off of a game where they allowed 10 runs or more. Also, the over is 40-20 this season in Diamondbacks games against teams with a losing record. 10* OVER in Colorado Saturday night |
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09-03-16 | Western Michigan v. Northwestern -4.5 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
Rickenbach NCAA FB Game #160 - High Noon Top Blowout - 10* Top Play Northwestern Wildcats -4.5 vs Western Michigan Broncos @ Noon ET Saturday - You can tell by the line movement on this game (downward) that many are looking at the Broncos as an underdog in this early Saturday match-up. I completely respect Western Michigan as a MAC team but that is the key to the equation surrounding my big play on Northwestern in this match-up. The Wildcats are a Big Ten team that went 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their non-conference games last year. Note that the Broncos went just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS outside of the MAC last season. I am well aware of the fact that Western Michigan has gone bowling each of the last two years and has been a team on the rise in the MAC. However, the last time they played Northwestern they got rolled by a 3 TD margin and the Wildcats have won 8 of their last 9 home openers. With this line moving down there is even more value on Northwestern here as we laying a rather small number against a team from an inferior conference. Remember last year the Wildcats home opener featured an upset win over Stanford. Even though Western Michigan is no Stanford (in terms of motivation for a big win) there is no way that the Wildcats will overlook the Broncos as Northwestern has Illinois State on deck. That means there is definitely no lookahead factor here. The Wildcats were very strong on defense last year and return 6 starters from that D which gives them a huge edge in comparing the defensive capabilities of these two teams. Northwestern allowed only 16 points per game last year while Western Michigan allowed 28 points per game. Over the last 25 years the Broncos are 3-26 SU against Big Ten teams. Over this same period, the Wildcats are 12-5 SU against MAC teams. Big difference in terms of the level of competition and I feel this is a very reasonable line on the superior team whom also has the home field edge. Lay it. 10* NORTHWESTERN early Saturday. |
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09-02-16 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #911/912 - NL Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 11.5 in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET Friday - The Diamondbacks are a perfect 4-0 to the over this season as a road fave of -100 to -125. Arizona is also 8-4 to the over when playing after a day off. The Dbacks also have seen the over go 39-20 in their games against teams with a losing record this season. The Diamondbacks will have Robbie Ray on the mound and he's facing a Rockies team that is averaging 6.3 runs per game (and hitting .304) at home this season. Ray has faced Colorado twice in 2016 and he's allowed 8 earned runs on 16 hits (including 5 homers) in less than 9 innings of work. The Arizona southpaw will be opposed by fellow southpaw Jorge De La Rosa in this one. The Rockies left-hander has given up 14 hits and 7 walks in less than 11 innings against the Diamondbacks this season. That is not a huge surprise as the Dbacks have been tough on left-handed pitching this season and are averaging 5 runs per game against lefties on the year. De La Rosa has a 5.36 ERA in his home starts this season and the over is 7-2 in his starts at Coors Field this year! The Rockies have scored at least 7 runs in 5 of their last 6 home games. Arizona, prior to a loss in their last game of August, had averaged 5.4 runs per game in going 5-3 in their last 8 games. Both teams, after an off day yesterday, resume the hot hitting tonight in the dry air at Coors Field and with the wind blowing out. 10* OVER 11.5 in Colorado Friday |
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09-02-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 104 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #921/922 - AL Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 9 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET Friday - The Twins snapped their 13-game losing streak with an 8-5 win yesterday. Even though Minnesota has been losing it hasn't necessarily kept their bats quiet. In fact, the Twins have averaged 5 runs per game in their last 10 games and the over is on an 8-2 run during this stretch. They have enjoyed success against Carlos Rodon of the White Sox as Minny has got to him for 9 earned runs in 12 innings in his last two starts against them and the Twins hit 4 homers in those two games! Minnesota will have Kyle Gibson on the mound and he has allowed 9 earned runs on 15 hits in 10 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The over is 6-0 in Gibson's last 6 starts and the over is 8-1 this season in White Sox road games with a posted total of 9 or 9.5 runs. The Twins have been an over machine this season including 54-25 to the over in night games. They also are 34-14 to the over when off of a win and 32-15 to the over when facing a team with a losing record. Minny is facing a southpaw again after facing one last night and the over is now 22-12 in Twins games against left-handed starters this season. The ChiSox bullpen has a 4.92 ERA on the road this season and the Minnesota bullpen certainly has played a role in the Twins allowing 7.3 runs per game in their last 12 games! More of the same tonight. 10* OVER in Minnesota Friday |
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09-01-16 | White Sox v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #957/958 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 ET Thursday - With their game going over the total at Cleveland last night, the Twins are now 53-25 to the over in night games this year. In games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs Minnesota has gone 36-18 to the over this season. In games against teams with a losing record the Twins have gone 31-15 to the over this year. Also, against left-handed starters, the over is 21-12 in Minnesota games this year. Certainly the White Sox Jose Quintana has been pitching very well but he has been more hittable on the road than at home. Also, the Twins are very familiar with him as they'll be facing him for the fourth time in less than four months. As for the Minnesota starter today, Ervin Santana has given up 20 hits in his 16 and 1/3 innings against the ChiSox this season and he'll be facing them for the 4th time this season. Familiarity in terms of match-ups almost always favors the hitters. The more they see of a pitcher the better shot they have at making solid contact and Santana is coming off of a start where he struggled with his command and gave up 6 earned runs at Toronto. The White Sox bullpen has a 4.92 ERA on the road this season and the Twins bullpen has played a role in the fact that Minny has allowed 7.4 runs per game during their current 13-game losing streak. Though the pitchers have some decent numbers of late, that is merely serving to give us some extra line value with a low total in this one. 10* OVER 8 in Minnesota Thursday evening. |
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09-01-16 | Ottawa -2.5 v. Montreal | Top | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Rickenbach CFL Game #215 - Divisional Dominator - 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks -2.5 @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Not only are the Alouettes without their star receiver (Duron Carter) due to suspension, their offense has struggled for much of this season. 4 interceptions created a disaster for the Als last week and now they face an Ottawa team fully focused on exacting revenge after an ugly, embarrassing home loss (43-19) two weeks ago. The Redblacks now have their starting QB back and he should be even stronger in his 2nd game back. Ottawa was heavily penalized in last week's game (a loss) and they'll have that cleaned up for this rematch with a division rival this week. The Redblacks had won 4 straight meetings with Montreal before the loss in Ottawa two weeks ago. As a road fave of 3 points or less Ottawa is on a long-term 4-1 (80%) ATS run. Also, the Redblacks excel in games that are projected to be tight. In games with a line of +3 to -3 Ottawa has gone 20-9 SU and 19-10 ATS long-term. Montreal is 0-3 ATS as a home dog of 3 points or less this season. Also, the Als are 9-17 ATS when playing with 6 days or less of rest. Look for the Redblacks to get revenge against a short-handed Alouettes team. 10* OTTAWA Thursday evening. |
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08-31-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #925/926 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET Wednesday - My clients and I took a bad beat with the over in the Twins/Indians game yesterday but, the least we can do is get some payback today. Yesterday's game was 4-4 in the SECOND inning and yet did not go over the total. Many crazy things happened that prevented that game from going over but let's focus on going forward rather than looking back. Both bullpens got some extra work yesterday so that helps in terms of today's over. The big key here is that the Twins Pat Dean should get rocked but I also believe the Indians Corey Kluber will give up his fair share as well. Over the past 12 months Kluber has faced the Twins 3 times and he has given up 4 earned runs in EACH of those three outings. Kluber has compiled a 6.61 ERA in those 3 most recent starts versus Minnesota. As for the Twins Dean, he has allowed 13 earned runs in only 5 and 1/3 innings spanning his last two starts. The southpaw has made 7 starts this season and 5 of those have resulted in overs as Dean has compiled a 6.88 ERA as a starter this year. Each of his last 4 starts have gone over the total and I look for the "over streak" to reach 5-0 today. The Twins are 36-18 to the over this season in games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. The Indians are 19-7 to the over this year in home games with a posted total of 8 or 8.5 runs. Today's play on the over should make up for yesterday's nonsense as the match-up is right for an easy over here! 10* OVER 8 in Cleveland Wednesday |
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08-30-16 | Twins v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #971/972 - Div Total of the Year - 10* Top Play OVER 9.5 in Cleveland Indians vs Minnesota Twins @ 7:10 ET Tuesday - After yesterday's 1-0 battle, today's game is likely to make up for that in terms of runs scored. The Indians Josh Tomlin has gone 0-5 in August and has compiled a 10.80 ERA for the month. Home runs allowed continue to be a problem for Tomlin as he has given up 7 homers in his last 3 starts. The last time Tomlin faced the Twins in Cleveland he gave up 3 homers in a mid-May start. Minnesota will have Andrew Albers on the mound and he is making his first MLB start in 3 years. The big concern with Albers it that, even at at the minor league level, he has been getting hit hard! Albers, at AAA Rochester, has a 3.69 ERA but a .305 BAA. In other words, he's fortunate to have such a low ERA. The prior season, at AAA Buffalo, Albers went 2-11 with a 5.70 ERA and he was hit at a .324 clip. In other words, this guy has proven he still ultra-hittable and he now faces major league hitters that are ready for another breakout game (like the 12-1 Indians win over the Rangers Friday) after some recent frustration at the plate. The over was 6-0 in the Twins last 6 games before yesterday's pitchers' duel. The over is 8-2 in Tomlin's home starts this season. The over is 11-3 this season in Minny's road games where they are a dog of +175 to +200. The over is 9-2 the last 3 seasons combined in Cleveland home games where they are a favorite of -200 to -225. 10* OVER in Cleveland Tuesday. |
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08-29-16 | Yankees v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #923/924 - Total Annihilation - 10* Top Play OVER 8.5 in Kansas City Royals vs New York Yankees @ 8:15 ET Monday - Michael Pineda is having a tough season for the Yankees and he has particularly struggled on the road. Away from home this season Pineda has gone 2-6 with a 5.37 ERA and has been hit at a .287 clip. The over is 7-3 with two pushes in his 12 road starts this year. He'll be opposed by Dillon Gee who got hit at a .329 clip last season and is getting hit at a .293 clip this season. The Yankees are a tough match-up for him as they have hit right-handed pitching very well this year. The Yanks will be looking to bounce back after getting shut out yesterday. That was only the 7th time the Yankees have been shut out this season and they've only had 1 under (out of 6 games) in their next game after a shutout loss this season. Prior to yesterday's shutout, the Yanks had scored at least 5 runs in 9 of their last 10 games. During this solid stretch the Yankees averaged 6.4 runs per game. As for the Royals, after smashing the Red Sox at Fenway Park last night, they remain red hot. Kansas City has averaged 6.7 runs per game in going 11-3 in their last 14 games. As a small home dog priced between +100 and +125 this season the Royals have gone 11-6 to the over. The Royals Gee has struggled badly against left-handed bats throughout his career and the Yankees will be loaded up from that side of the plate tonight. 10* OVER in Kansas City Monday evening |
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08-29-16 | White Sox v. Tigers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
Rickenbach MLB Game #918 - Run Line Rout - 10* Top Play Detroit Tigers -1.5 -105 vs Chicago White Sox @ 7:10 ET Monday - The White Sox James Shields is off of a better start against the Phillies but Philadelphia hadn't faced him since last season. Now he faces a Tigers team that is very familiar with him and seeing him for the 4th time in the last 2 and 1/2 months. That doesn't bode well for Shields who has allowed 14 runs in the 16 innings spanning these three recent starts against Detroit. Also, Shields comes into this start having gone 0-4 in his 5 August starts with a 13.95 ERA and he's been rocked at a .408 clip in these outings. He's likely to get clobbered by the Tigers here and that should provide plenty of run support for Detroit's Matt Boyd to win this game by at least two runs. The Tigers southpaw is 5-0 with a 2.38 ERA in his last 8 starts (and 1 relief appearance) since he moved back into Detroit's rotation. The Tigers are hungry to bounce back after back to back losses to the Angels followed a 5 game winning streak that saw Detroit score 7.8 runs per game with every victory coming by a margin of at least two runs. The White Sox last 16 losses have come by an average margin of 3 runs per defeat and, with a complete pitching mismatch here, this looks like another blowout loss for Shields and the ChiSox. Each of the White Sox last 4 losses with Shields on the mound have come by at least 2 runs with 3 of them by 6 runs or more. 10* DETROIT -1.5 runs on the Run Line Monday Evening. |