Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-10-20 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - The Rays start Josh Fleming. He is coming off a tough start at home versus the Marlins. That doesn't bode well for now facing a Red Sox team that, despite having a rough season, still does have a dangerous lineup. Fleming allowed 4 earned runs on 7 hits in 5 innings of work. He has given up 3 homers in 10 innings spanning his two home starts in this, his rookie, season. The Red Sox start Mike Kickham. He is 31 years old but has very little MLB experience but Boston is so desperate for pitching. Kickham is 1-3 with a 10.19 ERA in his 16 career MLB appearances. The Rays entered Tuesday's game having scored an average of 5 runs per game their 8 most recent games and I look for Tampa Bay to take advantage of facing Kickham and a poor Red Sox bullpen as they bounce back from a 5-3 loss. As for the Boston lineup, they have averaged nearly 7 runs per game their last 4 games and that is even though two of those games were 7-inning games (double-header with Phillies Tuesday). The Rays bullpen also hasn't lived up to its billing lately so look for runs from both teams early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Tampa Bay |
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09-09-20 | Islanders +150 v. Lightning | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #37 Wednesday 10* New York Islanders Money Line (+) vs Tampa Bay Lightning @ 8:10 ET - The Islanders got destroyed 8-2 in Game 1. I had the Lightning in that game as it was a very tough spot for the Isles and it paid off easily. Now, the markets are heavily favoring the Bolts in Game 2 but this situation actually favors New York. The Islanders are 4-1 in this post-season when off a loss. Not only that, those 4 wins came by a combined score of 16 to 2. Now I am not saying this will be a dominating win for the Islanders as I have a ton of respect for Tampa Bay and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. But, the fact is the Isles should respond off a very embarrassing loss in Game 1 and they are so well-coached. Yes, TB is well-coached too but after all the bounces went the way of the Lightning in Game 1, I expect a turn of events here in Game 2 and, without a shadow of a doubt, the money line value is clearly with the Islanders in this bounce back spot and being given a +150 payback opportunity. I'll take it! 10* NEW YORK ISLANDERS |
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09-09-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays OVER 10 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Blue Jays vs New York Yankees @ 6:35 ET - This game being played at Sahlen Field in Buffalo and the wind will be blowing out toward right or right-center at a decent clip as a weather front moves through the area starting late in the afternoon and into the evening hours. I like this set-up for some long ball damage in this one! Yes the Yankees have been slumping but they can break out against Tanner Roark here. Yesterday the Yankees left 10 men on base and went 0 for 7 with runners in scoring position. I expect them to make up for that here. Roark has allowed 5 homers in the 14 and 1/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. Opponents are hitting .317 against Roark this season. Also, in his home starts he has a 7.00 ERA and in night games he has a 6.61 ERA. He'll be opposed by Deivi Garcia on the mound for the Yankees. I know the 21-year old rookie is known for his curveball but he is making just his 3rd big league start and allowed 4 runs in less than 5 innings in his start last week. Also, Toronto was averaging 7.7 runs per game prior to yesterday's low-scoring win. That said, I look for the powerful Blue Jays bats to come right back to life and take advantage of facing a rookie hurler still learning the ropes on a hitter-friendly night in upstate New York tonight. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-09-20 | Raptors +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #709 Wednesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - Brad Wanamaker scored 15 points off the bench for the Celtics on Monday. The rest of the Boston bench scored a TOTAL of 3 points! To put that in proper perspective, the Raptors bench scored 44 points in Monday's loss. Yes, the Celtics starers vastly outplayed Toronto's starters in Game 5 but I don't see that happening again here in Game 6. You know the Raptors, whom had won 2 straight before Monday's ugly loss, will respond big. I also certainly don't expect the Celtics to shoot 49.4% from the floor while the Raptors shoot just 38.8% from the floor like we saw in Game 5. Nor do I expect the Celtics to go to the line 27 times while the Raptors get just 13 free throw attempts. Boston is a popular choice in this one but the line move is giving us even more value with the Raptors now getting as much as 3.5 points as of early game day morning. I'll take it! I am expecting a Game 7 to result in this series and if the Raptors do fall short here look for it to be by just a bucket. Grab the points! 10* TORONTO |
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09-08-20 | Stars +145 v. Golden Knights | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBCSN Blowout Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #35 Tuesday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8:10 ET - Everyone will be lining up on Vegas here off a loss. I am quite sure of that. Yet, like I mentioned in my Game 1 write-up on Dallas, the Stars faced tougher competition to get here. I am not trying to totally knock Vancouver but the Canucks were a young team and not as well coached as the teams that the Stars faced to get here. The Golden Knights also were fortunate in their first round match-up as they faced a Blackhawks team that was the #12 seed and barely even made it into the qualifying round of this unique 2020 playoff set-up. The point is that the Knights have really had to take a step up in level of competition for this series. The Stars beat a solid Flames team and an Avalanche team that I had predicted would win it all this season. In other words, Dallas has earned my respect. I am not saying Vegas is not a good team. Of course they are a very good team or they would not be here but what I am saying is that the Stars are not getting nearly enough respect from the betting markets here. I'll take the big dog that knows they played a sloppy 3rd period and were lucky to hang on for the 1-0 win. Of course Vegas is likely to respond here but Dallas had a lot of scoring opportunities in Game 1 that they did not cash and that was even with playing a bit of a "protective game" after getting the early 1-0 lead. The Stars score plenty more here and keep the Golden Knights on their heels in this one. 10* DALLAS |
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09-08-20 | Orioles v. Mets OVER 9 | Top | 11-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #965 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles @ 7:10 ET - The Mets just faced the Phillies two best pitchers - Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler - but scored 22 runs in the 2 games! New York is feeling it right now at the plate and now will take advantage of a big stepdown in class for this one. The Orioles send John Means to mound. The Baltimore southpaw is 0-3 with an 8.10 ERA in his 6 starts this season and just faced the Mets last week which certainly won't help him here! Starting for New York it will be Michael Wacha on the mound. He is 1-2 with a 7.20 ERA on the season and has been rocked at a .322 clip in his 5 starts. Last season Wacha was hit at a .290 clip and struggled to a 4.76 ERA for the Cardinals so this is not a complete shock that he has been very hittable this season. Also, Baltimore enters this game with some confidence at the plate as they have won 5 of 7 games and scored an average of 5.5 runs per game their last 8 games. Considering all the above, this is a rather low total posted on this game and I won't hesitate in going to my highest level with the rating on this play. 10* OVER the total in New York Mets |
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09-08-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 217.5 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #705 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 6:30 ET - I am expecting Giannis to play for the Bucks but, even if he doesn't, we saw what Milwaukee is capable of without him as they rallied the troops to win in overtime in Game 4. I am well aware of the fact that, without OT, Sunday's game would not have gone over the total. However, I am also well aware of the fact that the only reason it needed overtime to go over was because of a horrific 4th quarter performance in terms of scoring. I don't expect a repeat of that here and look for this game to comfortably fly over the total. Each team should shoot a little better from 3-point land overall and Miami fired up a bunch of them from long range in Game 4. The Heat had scored well in this series prior to Sunday's loss and I expect them to bounce back here. But the Bucks proved they are not going to go down without a fight. That said, higher scoring game than many are expecting here as the defense of Milwaukee has not been good in this series but the Bucks, on the other end, will keep the pressure on the Heat and I really don't expect Giannis to miss this. The turn of his ankle bothered him in Game 4 because it was already so tender. But the fact is it did not look severe at all and he'll be good to go here. I would recommend playing this one early because I expect the total to rise later. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NBCSN Blowout Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #34 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 8 ET - Huge edges for the Bolts here. They are much more rested as they had 6 days off while the Islanders just finished up an epic battle in a 7-game series with the Flyers that saw 3 games go to overtime. With the conference finals being played in Edmonton, the Isles had to immediately get in a plane and fly west as they had hardly any time to enjoy their big win over Philadelphia in Toronto on Saturday night. Not only is Tampa Bay more rested and holding the travel edge (they arrived to Alberta well before the Islanders did), I also like other edges here for the Lightning. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been fantastic between the pipes whereas New York's #1 netminder Semyon Varlamov has been shaky at times. I know Thomas Greiss got the shutout win over the Flyers in Game 7 for the Isles but he is the normal #2 guy for a reason. The point is that the Lightning have a significant goalie edge here and with the rest edge and the fact that the Bolts have won 4 straight games and beat a tough Boston team convincingly, I am willing to lay the price here. Rare for me to lay much of a price, especially for a top play, but just too many edges in this situation for Game One! 10* TAMPA BAY |
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09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy | Top | 55-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB Rotation #243 Monday 10* Top Play BYU Cougars (-) @ Navy Midshipmen @ 8 ET - This line is right around a pick'em so the first thing I want to mention is that if you can not get BYU at plus points then I would recommend playing the money line with Cougars rather than laying points. Of course line movement could impact that decision but just keep that in mind when you go make this wager. Many saw Army, another option team, blast Middle Tennessee on Saturday afternoon and are likely siding with Navy here under the same angle that a defense will struggle badly against the option attack. However, there are some key factors here that have me thinking contrarian to that. One is that, unlike the Blue Raiders, BYU has a strong defense and they return the majority of their top tacklers from last season's defense. Another factor here is that Navy lost their QB from last season and he was truly a special performer, a true star for the program, and is a key loss. Overall, when you look at returning personnel from last season, it is a huge edge for the Cougars in this one in terms of experience level on the roster compared to that of the Midshipmen. Additionally, even though this game is being played at Navy the Midshipmen won't have the usual crowd edge and plus it is a night game so it is no problem for the body clocks of BYU coming from out west. Sometimes when a team like the Cougars has an early game (Noon ET) back east those types of situations can be a problem. Again, no issue with that here and Brigham Young's offense battled a lot of injuries last season but look for the now much healthier unit to surprise some people with how successful it will be early this season. 10* BYU |
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09-07-20 | Celtics v. Raptors +2 | Top | 111-89 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #702 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - Sometimes a series can turn on one shot and that is what you're seeing here in this one. When the Raptors got the last second 3 to win Game 3, they took that momentum right into Game 4 and now have won back to back games. Keep in mind, Toronto won 7 of 8 regular season games in the bubble, had won 4 straight regular season games prior to the pandemic-forced shutdown and now have won 6 of 8 playoff games. In other words, this is a Raptors team that has won 17 of its last 20 games. Certainly Boston is a very good team and also has the best coach in the NBA. However, some self-doubt is creeping in as they are not knocking down shots like they had been and the Raptors are the much more confident team right now. That said, I am happy to fade the line move here and grab the couple points now being offered with Toronto. Keep in mind the Raptors also led Game 2 by 8 points heading into the 4th quarter. It is a tight series and I like having the momentum and the points on my side! 10* TORONTO |
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09-07-20 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #907 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers @ 4:10 ET - The Mariners Marco Gonzales has great numbers this season but he has been inconsistent and generally gets hit hard when off a good start. He has not been able to string together good outings very often at all and is off a good start. In other words, that is a good sign for our purposes here. Another good sign is that the Rangers hit him hard when they faced him last month. Texas got to Gonzales for 4 earned runs in 5 innings. After yesterday's 4-3 loss for the Rangers, look for them to bounce back at the plate as they again get to Gonzales early and often. Texas will need all the runs they can get because I expect Kolby Allard to get rocked. He has been hit hard in each of his last two road starts and one of those was here at Seattle as well. Additionally, Allard has been hit hard in day games this season. In other words, this is not an ideal match-up for either pitcher and I am going to take advantage of the low total (8 / 8.5) posted on this game and go with a top play in this one. 10* OVER the total in Seattle |
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09-06-20 | Stars +148 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-0 | Win | 148 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
NBC Blowout Rout - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #35 Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Stars Money Line (+) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 8 ET - Vegas faced two teams to reach this point - the Canucks and the Blackhawks. Dallas faced two teams to reach this point - the Avalanche and the Flames. What is noteworthy about this is that both teams that the Golden Knights faced finished with less points in the regular season than the two teams that the Stars faced. Not only that but the Blackhawks were a 12th seed so they were the lowest seed that ended up making the post-season out west. As for the Avalanche that was a team that many (including me) predicted would be playing for the Stanley Cup. So the point is that I feel the Stars have faced a tougher road here and the Golden Knights have been fortunate with their match-ups. Vegas faced a Chicago team coached by a 35-year old and a Canucks team coached by a 49-year old. Now they face a Stars staff with plenty of coaching experience including interim head coach Rick Bowness whom is 65 years old and has been coaching since 1989 which means, yes, the year 2020 marks the 5th decade in which he has coached. Dallas has shown a lot of firepower in the offensive zone in this post-season and will test the Knights in a way that Chicago and Vancouver simply weren't capable of. This is the best team by far that the Golden Knights have faced in the post-season while I am not sure the reverse is true at all. The Avalanche team, even with injuries, was a very high-powered team that the Stars just got past. I think all that experience serves them well immediately in Game 1 before Vegas can make some adjustments as this series on. I am happy to grab the big dog value here with the Stars. 10* DALLAS |
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09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 219 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #745 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 3:30 ET - The Heat have scored at least 115 points in every game this series and the Bucks are certainly not showing any signs that they can slow them down. At the same time though, I just don't see Milwaukee getting swept right out of the playoffs without at least putting up a fight to avoid the sweep. That said, the Bucks won't stop until the final buzzer sounds on this one and they need to push the pace a bit and try to get Miami back on their heels a bit. Keep in mind, Milwaukee averaged 29 points per quarter through the first 3 quarters of what was essentially a must win Game 3. After the epic fourth quarter collapse in that one I look for the Bucks to come up with a much better "close out" in Game 4. Does that mean that Milwaukee wins and avoids the sweep? Not necessarily and that is why I am not touching the side in this game. However, what it goes mean is we should see plenty of points in this one as I expect the Heat to reach at least the 115 mark again and, this time, the Bucks are right there with them when the final buzzer sounds. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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09-06-20 | Reds v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #963 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds @ 1:35 ET - There were 5 homers hit in yesterday's game between these teams but 4 of the 5 were solo bombs. The game stayed just under the total as it ended up with 8 runs. Look for today's game to make up for it. For one thing this is a day game and the ball should carry at least as it did in last night's homer-filled contest. For another thing, the pitching match-up is conducive to an over. The Pirates Chad Kuhl allowed 2 homers in 5 innings against the Reds last month. Also, Kuhl is coming off a start in which he allowed 4 runs (3 earned) in just 4 innings. Kuhl has allowed 6 homers in his last 5 starts and the Reds sluggers are feeling it after going yard 4 times in yesterday's game. The Pirates also should enjoy success at the plate in this one. Pittsburgh is facing Cincinnati's Teejay Antone. He has mostly worked out of the pen this season. Antone is unlikely to pitch deep into this game and that means plenty of Reds bullpen likely to be involved in this one and it has not been a good start to the season for them overall. As for Antone, he allowed 2 homers in his most recent appearance (a start) and gave up 3 earned runs in 4 innings. In his only other start this season he walked 4 in 4 and 1/3 innings. More struggles for Antone (as well as the Reds pen) in this one and it should fly over the total as the Cincy sluggers have a big game again too. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-05-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +115 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #6 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) vs New York Islanders @ 7:30 ET - Seeing guys like Kevin Hayes, Claude Giroux, and Travis Konecny getting on the scoresheet in recent games is big news for the Flyers. Throughout this post-season Philadelphia has been winning on the strength of team depth and the goaltending of Carter Hart. However, along the way, much has been made of the lack of production for some of the big name guys for Philadelphia and that includes James van Riemsdyk whom also has gotten in on the scoring in recent games too. All of this has helped lead the way to a Flyers comeback from a 3-1 series deficit to tie the series at 3. With yesterday's losses for the Avalanche and the Canucks, neither of the other teams that did the same thing the Flyers have done were able to complete the comeback and advance to the conference finals. However, Philadelphia's head coach Alain Vigneault has already done this multiple times in his career and I look for him again help lead the way to a series comeback from a 3-1 deficit to advance to the next round. Yes the Flyers were heavily outshot in Game 6 but they played much better than what that lone stat (shots on goal) would lead you to believe. The Islanders haven't made it to the conference finals in 27 years. The Flyers rallied all the way back from a 3-0 series deficit to oust the Bruins in 2010. That was the same year Philly lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to the Blackhawks. History is on the side of the Flyers here but I also like the boost they have received from the return of Oskar Lindblom to the ice. He has a rare form of bone cancer (Ewing's sarcoma) and he and the Flyers go all out again here in Game 7. They could have Sean Couturier back from injury as well. I am actually expecting that but even if he does not return I still see all the value with the confident Flyers here who have proven throughout this series that they can win the tightest of games. Give me the underdog here! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-05-20 | Phillies +156 v. Mets | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - I understand this line but that doesn't mean I agree with it! Seeing the Mets as a favorite here is not a surprise considering home field and the pitching match-up. But the fact everyone is lining up on New York here and pounding the Mets money line is not justifiable in my opinion. Now we have the chance to take a team that has won 10 of its last 11 games and we're getting them in the +150 range. I'll take that any day of the week that ends in a Y. You get my point! Spencer Howard is a rookie and he struggled against the Mets when he faced them but he is making improvements with each start he makes. He is off a solid outing against the Nationals in his most recent start and I liked the way he threw. Yes the velocity on his fastball dipped a little by the end of his start compared to the beginning of the outing but how is that different from Seth Lugo whom is very over-rated in this spot. He is making just his 3rd start of this season and in the most recent outing he tired as the start went on as he pitched into the fourth inning for the first time in two years! Lugo had been working out of the bullpen this season. Not only that, he has faced the Phillies twice out of the pen this season and they have notched 5 hits in 1 and 1/3 innings! In other words more hits than outs for Lugo against Philly this season. The betting markets are not properly evaluating this game in my opinion and I'll take a Phillies team that has won 10 of 11 and 5 straight as a big dog in this one. Note that the Mets have lost 6 of their last 8 games! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-05-20 | Raptors v. Celtics OVER 213.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #741 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors @ 6:30 ET - Each of the first three games in this series stayed under the total so we're now seeing some value here with the over in Game 4. I look for both teams to shoot better from three point land after the Celtics made just 9 of 29 and the Raptors only 13 of 40 in Game 3. Also, Toronto was just 9 of 16 from the free throw line in Game 3. Just some crazy numbers that I don't see being repeated here and, keep in mind, that game still totaled 207 points. That is not far from the number we're looking at with this total so a few more made threes and a few more made free throws and this game is over the total. That is precisely the call I am making here as the Celtics respond with a little more emphasis in the offensive end coming off the loss. At the same time Toronto feels like they are absolutely back in it after the clutch shot to win Game 3 and will ride a wave of momentum to a strong showing in the offensive end in this one. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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09-04-20 | Phillies +115 v. Mets | Top | 5-3 | Win | 115 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (+) @ New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Phillies have won 9 of their past 10 games. Philadelphia ranks among the hottest teams in baseball right now and here is an opportunity to take them as an underdog against a Mets team that is off a huge comeback win over the rival Yankees yesterday in a Subway Series match-up. Additionally, New York sends a struggling Rick Porcello to the mound. The Mets right-hander has been hit at a .321 clip by opponents this season and only has two quality starts in his seven outings. Porcello has a 6.00 ERA on the year. Now, of course I am fully aware of the fact that the Phillies Jake Arrieta is off a every ugly outing where nothing went right. However, that is part of the appeal here actually because Arrieta had been pitching much better than he showed in that ugly outing versus the Braves on Sunday night. In fact, he entered that start with a 4.32 ERA in 5 preceding starts. It was the shortest start of his MLB career and he is a veteran hurler and a gamer. In other words, you can expect a very strong effort from him here. Prior to getting rocked by the Braves, Arrieta had made two divisional start this season. He allowed just 1 earned run on only 6 hits in 11 innings of work! He knows how important divisional games are and Arrieta bounces back here and the Phillies improve to 10-1 in their last 11 games! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #745 Friday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Miami Heat @ 6:30 ET - Now we play the Bucks. After losing Game 1 everyone jumped on Milwaukee in Game 2. I had the Heat as you know. Why? Because I am a contrarian capper by nature and I saw the world jumping on the Bucks so, of course, I was on the other side. Now you have a case where there are finally non-believers about this Milwaukee team and we're seeing a lot more attention on Miami. So what do I do? Pound the Bucks here! After coming so close to a win in Game 2 but ultimately falling just short, Milwaukee puts it all together here and gets a resounding win by a double digit margin. You can almost feel it before it happens and there will just be a special focus from the Bucks (a very talented team of course) in this one after the way the game on Wednesday was decided late in such frustrating fashion for Milwaukee. Now it is payback time. The last 3 times the Bucks entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games they are a perfect 3-0 SU and the average margin of those 3 wins was 11.3 points per game with none of the victories coming by less than 7 points. That certainly works for our purposes here! 10* MILWAUKEE |
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09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -127 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #4 Friday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) vs Dallas Stars @ 4 ET - When you let a team hang around in a playoff series, no matter the sport, it can sometimes come back to bite you! This is particularly true in the NHL. A hot goalie and momentum go a long way toward deciding hockey games and we have now seen that hold true in no less than 3 of the 4 series going on right now in the NHL. We're going to see three NHL Game 7's which is a beautiful thing to see. The Golden Knights have played well but ran into a red hot goalie (Thatcher Demko) and that series has gone from 3-1 to 3-3. The Islanders have played well but ran into a very resilient Flyers team playing with a ton of emotion and that series has gone from 3-1 to 3-3. Then you have this one where all you hear people talk about is the fact that the Avalanche were a cup favorite but now they have too many injuries. Looks like the Colorado players are having nothing to do with talk like that! They have rallied the troops and this is yet another series that has gone from 3-1 to 3-3. Michael Hutchinson has been a key between the pipes because of the injuries to the top two Avs goalies. I am aware of the Gabriel Landeskog injury for the Avs but his linemates on the top line including Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen and there has simply been no quit in this team no matter whom is on the ice. MacKinnon is having a post-season for the ages but is 0-2 in Game 7's and can't wait to change that here. Look for that to happen. The Avs advance as the Stars, still shaken from blowing a 3-1 series lead, fall short again this year just like they did last year in a similar situation against the Blues. The Avalanche simply look like the better team, even with injuries, as this series has gone on. The Avs are relentlless and have too much firepower for Dallas to put away. 10* COLORADO |
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09-03-20 | Flyers +105 v. Islanders | Top | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #25 Thursday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) vs New York Islanders @ 7:00 ET - While there are question marks about whether or not Barzal will play for Islanders in this one and whether or not Couturier will play for the Flyers in this one, I want to get this play out early for everyone. The fact is I expect Barzal to play and Couturier not to play but I still like the Flyers in this one. If Barzal was announced as being out and Couturier being in than so much the better. But the fact is momentum and having your big guys going strong is a key in the hockey post-season and the Flyers check the boxes on both of those things heading into this game. In Game 5 they finally saw Giroux score a goal (he also picked up his 6th assist on the GW OT goal no less!) plus van Riemsdyk also scored a goal. Coach Vigneault is pushing all the right buttons with these Flyers and though Konecny has not scored a goal he picked up a pair of assists in the win. Coming back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 is not easy but coach Vigneault has let teams to series wins multiple times after a 3-1 series hole. Also, if you don't believe momentum and getting the big guys going is key in a series you're not paying attention to the series out in Edmonton where Colorado got a 4-1 win last night to force a Game 7 after being down 3-1 in that series with Dallas. Look for the Flyers to also force a Game 7 by getting the big win tonight. The Islanders are a great team for sure and very well coached but Philly has the momentum here and unlike the Avalanche (down to a 3rd string goalie no less!) the Flyers have a true #1 netminder (Hart) healthy and ready to go here tonight. I love Game 7's in NHL and this series absolutely appears destined for a Game 7 after the way the Flyers responded twice in Game 5 to show how resilient they are. They gave up the first goal of the game just one minute into to the game to fall into a hole. They then allowed the final two goals of regulation to blow a 3-1 lead. They still win in OT. That is resilience with a capital R and this Flyers team is firing on all cylinders right now with or without Couturier. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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09-03-20 | Raptors -110 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #733 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - Why is Toronto in the same range of line as the first two games even though they Boston prevailed in both games? Exactly! Don't be fooled here folks. Many will take the Celtics here with the prevailing thinking being just that. The feeling one of bewilderment as to why Boston is a dog even though they already have proven in back to back games that they are the better team. Well a series is a best of seven not best of three and I look for the Raptors to start getting back into this series immediately. Keep in mind, in Game 1 the Raptors got a wake up call in the first quarter and the rest of the game was played about even. In Game 2 Toronto was ahead by 8 points heading to the 4th quarter before the Celtics pulled away late and won the game by 3 points. Give Boston credit for sure but the Raptors will play the full 48 minutes here and get back into this series. The Raptors had 90 shots from the field in Game 2 while the Celtics only had 76 from the field. Toronto had more 4 more steals and Boston had 5 more turnovers. Sounds like should have been a Raptors win, right? Precisely...and this one will be! 10* TORONTO |
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09-03-20 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 10 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals @ 4:05 ET - Zach Eflin has good stuff but he is known for struggling against left-handed hitters and this season has been no exception in that regard. I like taking the Nationals bats to bounce back after last night's shutout loss and they go from facing Nola and Wheeler to a step down in level of pitcher in Eflin. Don't get me wrong, he is a solid pitcher but moreso when the match-ups favor him and this is not one of those cases as he has a history of some struggles against a number of Washington hitters. The good news for Eflin is he should get plenty of run support here. Even though the Phillies only scored 3 runs yesterday they faced one of the best hurlers in the game in the form of Max Scherzer. That said, facing Anibal Sanchez will quickly rejuvenate the Phillies sticks. Philadelphia enters this game having won 8 of 9 games and they have scored an average of 5.9 runs per game their last 10 games. More of the same expected here and this one turns into a high-scoring slugfest in ideal afternoon weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park. Sanchez is 1-4 with a 6.90 ERA this season and has been hit at a .326 clip in his 6 starts this year. More of the same this afternoon. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche -123 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #19 Wednesday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) vs Dallas Stars @ 8 ET - What happens when a team has a chance to put a team away and then doesn't? We're about to find out. The Avalanche were down 3-1 in this series against the Stars but then absolutely blitzed Dallas and scored the first 5 goals of Game 5 and rolled to a 6-3 win. It will again be Michael Hutchinson between the pipes for Colorado tonight. Yes he is the #3 goalie but he is behind two solid netminders in Grubauer and Francouz - each of which are dealing with injuries. 2 of the 3 goals Hutchinson allowed were on power plays for Dallas and the reality is he played quite well. Also, dating back to the regular season, he has allowed just 4 goals on the last 55 shots he has faced. Keep in mind, Hutchinson is again likely to get plenty of goal support here too as the Avalanche have averaged 5 goals per game over the last 3 games. Also, the Avs finished off the Coyotes with identical 7-1 wins in each of the last two games of the series. I am not saying the same thing happens in this series but I am saying that the Avalanche are a very strong team and will force a Game 7 in my opinion. Give the Stars credit for getting the 3-1 series lead but now all the momentum is with Colorado and Dallas coach likely regrets making a goalie change at a crucial juncture in the series. He went to Ben Bishop in Game 5 as he was healthy enough to play again but he got absolutely blitzed and the Avs now have plenty of confidence against both of the Stars netminders. This Avalanche team is so dangerous in the offensive zone and I again don't see them being denied in this one. Just too much firepower and the confidence of Dallas is absolutely shaken now. I don't care what they say. They know they let a great chance slip away and have given the Avs plenty of hope! 10* COLORADO |
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09-02-20 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 102 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs Kyle Hendricks is winless with a 5.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. He allowed 10 hits in 6 innings in his most recent start. Historically Hendricks has been better at home than on the road and that trend has continued this season. He compiled a 5.02 ERA on the road last season and has a 6.61 ERA away from home so far this season. The Chicago right-hander is facing a Pirates team that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 4 games and that trend continues here. The Pirates will need all the runs they can get here because the Cubs are expected to crush the ball too. Chicago will take advantage of facing Joe Musgrove. The Cubs have a .464 slugging percentage in road games this season (#2 out of 30 MLB teams!) and Musgrove will be making his first start since August 4th. He is winless with a 6.75 ERA in his 3 starts this season and plus dealing with triceps inflammation. That is why he has been out for 4 weeks. Plus Musgrove was worse at home (5.09 ERA) than on the road last season. That trend continues here and this game should see plenty of runs early, often, and throughout. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-02-20 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #729 Wednesday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:30 ET - Everyone will be on the Bucks to bounce back here in Game 2. In typical contrarian fashion, I'll be on Miami! The Heat played (and swept) a tough team in round one of the post-season when they knocked off the Pacers. Milwaukee got a "cake walk" match-up with facing the lowly Magic and yet they struggled to pull away from Orlando often in those games. Yes, the Bucks did win 4 straight from the Magic after dropping the opener but I am just talking about the fact that there were long stretches where Milwaukee just looked a bit "out of sorts" in that series. The bad news for Bucks fans is now they are facing a Heat team that is much stronger than the Orlando team they faced in round one. Miami is scrappy and that helped lead the way to a lot of Bucks turnovers in Game 1 and the Heat were active on the offensive glass. Jimmy Butler is a very driven player and is helping lead his teammates to victory. Until (unless?) Giannis Antetokounmpo does the same for the Bucks there is some concern in Milwaukee for sure. Also, the Bucks Eric Bledsoe is dealing with a strained hamstring too and will not be 100 percent even if he plays tonight. As I mentioned in the intro here, the world will be lining up on the Bucks off a loss but there is a reason the odds makers opened up Game 2 with a line of Milwaukee -4. As fully expected, the betting markets feel the odds makers made a mistake and have run this line to a -5 and I would not be surprised to see it go higher as the day goes on but I want to get this play out to all customers early. 10* MIAMI |
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09-01-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #17 Tuesday 10* Top Play Vancouver Canucks Puck Line +1.5 goals -130 vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 9:45 ET - I am well aware of the fact that there has not yet been a game decided by a 1-goal margin in this series. But I feel strongly we see a tight one in the Edmonton bubble tonight. The Canucks aren't going away without a fight and they are fired up after taking a 3-2 lead to the 3rd period against the Golden Knights on Sunday only to ultimately lose. Vancouver gave up 3 goals in a span of about 6 minutes of the first half of the final period in Game 4 and it is payback time here. I have tremendous respect for the Knights however and that is why I wouldn't be surprised to see an overtime game like we saw last night when the Bruins were facing elimination against the Lightning. Boston forced OT before finally losing to Tampa Bay in the 2nd overtime. In this case, of course would be nice to have a big money line payback on the Canucks should they win outright but I would not be surprised if they play a fantastic game and yet ultimately fall just short in a one-goal loss as Vegas looks to close them out and move on. Vancouver had won 5 of 6 when coming off a loss but that was entering Game 4. After that defeat, the Canucks are now 5-2 the last 7 times when entering a game off a loss. Look for Vancouver to bounce back here and note that the Golden Knights entered Sunday's game having gone just 4-3 the last 7 times they were off a win by a multiple goal margin and 3 of those 4 wins came by just a single goal including 2 in overtime. In other words, if you just played the puck line +1.5 goals against Vegas in those 7 games you went 6-1 with your bets! Of course that angle is now 6-2 after the Golden Knights 2-goal win in Game 4 but I'll gladly take that 75% angle with the Canucks here as I don't see them exiting this series quietly. 10* VANCOUVER Puck Line +1.5 goals -130 |
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09-01-20 | Cubs v. Pirates OVER 9 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:05 ET - The Cubs Jon Lester allowed just 1 earned run in 5 innings in his most recent start but he gave up 8 hits. Lester was hit at a .294 clip by opponents last season and has now allowed 14 earned runs on 26 hits in 14 and 2/3 innings spanning his last 3 starts. The Chicago left-hander is facing a Pirates team that has scored 5 or more runs in each of their last 3 games and that trend continues here. The Pirates will need all the runs they can get here because the Cubs are expected to crush the ball too. Chicago will take advantage of facing Chad Kuhl. The Cubs have a .467 slugging percentage in road games this season and Kuhl has 7 walks against just 2 strikeouts in his last 2 starts and he has been fortunate the damage was minimized. Kuhl has allowed 10 hits in 6 and 2/3 innings the last two times he has faced the Cubs. That trend continues here and this game should see plenty of runs early, often, and throughout. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -111 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -111 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #724 Tuesday 10* Top Play Toronto Raptors Money Line (-) vs Boston Celtics @ 5:30 ET - With the line on this game dropping to as low as a -1 on the Raptors as of early game day morning, I am recommending a play on the Toronto money line for this one. It is available as low as a -110 and I fully expect the Raptors to bounce back. Yes, they lost game 1 by 18 points but the Celtics made 7 more threes on one less 3-point attempt! In other words, Boston shot well from 3-point land and Toronto did not and that 21 point variance from downtown was the difference in the game. I also like the fact that the Raptors only turned the ball over 14 times while the Celtics turned it over 22 times. That is eventually going to catch up with Boston and I don't see Toronto falling into an 0-2 hole in this series. In other words, it is payback time in Game 2 for the Raptors. 10* TORONTO money line |
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08-31-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -113 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #12 Monday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 7 ET - Many will be looking the way of the Bruins here. After all, they have lost 3 straight games and are trying to avoid elimination and this is practically the same Boston roster that was one win away from winning it all last season! In typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side here. I look for Tampa Bay to make it 4 in a row and not even let the Bruins sniff the potential of getting back in this series. By the way, the Bolts are 7-0 in terms of winning a series when they hold a 3-1 lead. In this case, I look for them to get the close out victory tonight. The Lightning have won the last two games by a combined 10-2 score and a key has been Jaroslav Halak, rather than Tuukka Rask, being between the pipes for Boston. This is not a knock on Halak as normally he is a solid goalie but, the fact is, he is not playing that well right now and neither are his Bruins teammates in front of him! Conversely, Andrei Vasilevskiy has been playing exceptionally well between the pipes for TB at the other end and I fully expect that to continue tonight. This Tampa Bay team is so hungry this season after what happened last year when they had an absolutely stellar regular season but then got swept out of the post-season in the first round! This Lightning team absolutely looks like a team on a mission in these playoffs and we see that continued inspired effort again Monday! 10* TAMPA BAY |
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08-31-20 | Cardinals v. Reds OVER 9 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cincinnati Reds vs St Louis Cardinals @ 6:40 ET - The Cardinals erupted for 7 runs in their win yesterday. The Reds got drilled 10-1 yesterday but should bounce back at the plate here. Why? Dakota Hudson is on the mound for St Louis. He has good numbers this season but 3 of his 4 starts have been at home. Why does that matter? Historically Hudson has dominated at home but struggled on the road and I look for that to continue here. The Cardinals right-hander had a 4.13 ERA and got hit at a .271 clip on the road last season and he had a 5.54 ERA in his 12 away appearances the year before that. Now he faces a Reds team that had won 4 of 5 games prior to getting blasted yesterday. Cincinnati scored 6 runs in all 4 of those wins and 3 of those were just 7 inning games! As for St Louis, they have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against Anthony DeSclafani and this is a great spot to fade him. DeSclafani hasn't pitched in 10 days as he was away on paternity leave. Also, that start came against the Cards so they are getting a quick "second look" at him now. DeScalfani allowed 8 baserunners in his 4 innings in that start against St Louis and he was lucky the damage wasn't worse. This time it will be! Keep in mind in his only home start this season (the one preceding his road start at St Louis) DeSclafani allowed 9 earned runs in just 2 innings of work. He gave up 3 homers at Great American Ball Park in that one. More of the same expected here. 10* OVER the total in Cincinnati |
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08-31-20 | Heat +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #719 Monday 10* Top Play Miami Heat (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks @ 6:30 ET - The Heat are well-rested after sweeping the Pacers in the first round. The Bucks did win 4 straight over the Magic after the losing the first game but went stretches where they truly didn't play that well against an Orlando team that they really should have dominated. Keep in mind, Miami faced a much tougher team in the first round than did Milwaukee. The Heat took on an Indiana team that finished 17 games over .500 while the Bucks took on an Orlando team that finished 7 games under .500 in the regular season. Also, Milwaukee seems more distracted by the incidents taking place in Kenosha, WI which makes sense, of course, because that city is practically a suburb of Milwaukee. The Heat didn't have that distraction come up until after they had already finished off the Magic in round one and I like what I am hearing and seeing with the Miami players heading into this first game of the round two series. Combining the factors above with the fact we get a handful of points here and I have no hesitation in grabbing the dog in this one. 10* MIAMI |
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08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #713 Sunday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 8:30 ET - The Nuggets won Game 5 and this followed a Game 4 loss that came by a margin of just 2 points. Denver also could get Gary Harris back for this game. He has worked his way back to be being closer and closer to a return. Now, after some extra time off because of the postponement of games, Harris might actually be ready to see some action here. The return of a starter, though he would likely come off the bench in this one, would be a boost to the Nuggets for sure. Either way, I like Denver in this one as they most certainly have proven they are not going down without a fight in this one. Remember Games 2 and 3 were blowout losses for the Nuggets but they have responded since then for sure. A Game 7 in a first round playoff series would be good for the NBA wouldn't it? Looks like they just might get it with this series. Keep in mind the Nuggets were a 4.5 point favorite in Game 1 of this series which they won in overtime. Now they are a 2.5 point dog in Game 6 of this series. I feel the line value here is clearly with Denver in this spot. The Nuggets, as noted above, got their tails kicked in with the ugly losses in Games 2 and 3 but they have since responded and the hungry dog bites the hardest as they say. Great line value with the underdog in this one especially when you factor in the potential return of Harris. Either way, for me, this is a great situation for backing the dog that is still down 3-2 in this series and welcomed the extra rest. 10* DENVER |
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08-30-20 | Flyers +110 v. Islanders | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Game of the Week (Eastern Conference) - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #7 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (+) vs New York Islanders @ 8 ET - The Flyers performance in Game 3 wasn't nearly as bad as the final score would lead one to believe. Philadelphia gave up a very late goal - 5 seconds left in second period - and that really hurt them as that is a killer for a team. The fact is the Islanders are a very tough team and this is likely to be a tight back and forth series. On that note, I really like the Flyers to respond off the loss with a huge effort here to get the win. They have not had a losing streak since early January! Dating back to the regular season and including this post-season, Philadelphia is 11-0 when coming off a loss. Look for the Flyers to improve on that mark here after being shut down in Game 3 where the second period did them in after they looked so sharp in the first period. This is a very good Philly team and they also hold the "back to back" edge in my opinion. In terms of the goalie match-up, if it is again Varlamov and Hart in this back to back note that Hart is 10 years younger than Varlamov and may respond better physically. If the teams go to the back-ups I like Elliott (12-5-2 away from Philly this season) over Greiss (7-6-2 away from home this season). Just a much better overall team effort expected in this one for the top-seeded team as they continue to show great resilience improving to 12-0 last dozen times they have been off a loss! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-30-20 | Braves v. Phillies -125 | Top | 12-10 | Loss | -125 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
IMPORTANT NOTE: I still like this play and EVERY MLB PLAY that I put out despite the pitching change. The BIGGEST books here in Vegas where I live (Westgate and Southpoint) BOTH went to action only on ALL baseball wagers - SIDES, TOTALS, Run Lines, ALL of it! This is likely the wave of the future. Each year that goes by starting pitching becomes LESS and LESS important. Bullpens are becoming MORE important and also what has always mattered still matters too...that is the current state of a team and its hitters. That leads to momentum for hitters and their team overall. In any event I'll get off my soapbox here but I personally wager thousands of dollars daily here at the Westgate next to where I live and EVERY baseball wager is action and I would not have it any other way - win, lose, or draw. So there you have it folks. My play is on the PHILLIES as they look to win their SIXTH in a row. The updated pitcher for the Braves is expected to be Tommy Milone. I could care or less. If it was Mickey Mouse for the Braves and Daffy Duck for the Phillies here I am riding the home team and the hotter team with all the momentum and with the lineup that has been producing better at bats. Best of luck always and please keep this in mind for all future MLB wagers from me as well. Thank you, Scott - ORIGINAL write-up - Game of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #930 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - The Phillies have now won 5 straight games and are closing the gap on the Braves. Philadelphia can move to within 1 game of first-place Atlanta with another win tonight and I am betting (literally) that they will do just that. The Braves are only 6-10 in road games this season. The Phillies have a winning record at home and are currently one of the hottest teams in the majors. They start Jake Arrieta this evening and he rates a big edge over Huascar Ynoa in my opinion. Arrieta has been a better pitcher at home ever since he came to the Phillies. 3.64 ERA and .238 BAA at home in 2018. Last year was a sub-par season for him overall but he still went 5-3 at home and held hitters to a .256 BAA at Citizens Bank Park which was much better than his production on the road. This season Arrieta has a 3.38 ERA in his two home starts and he is a "gamer" who likes "big game opportunity" like this one provides. Sunday night game and a key battle against the division leaders. He'll be ready. As for Ynoa, he is a 22-year old whom has a 7.94 ERA in his 6 MLB appearances (2 starts). Also, Ynoa won't be helped by the fact that he is facing the Phillies for the 3rd time this season. The more a lineup sees a young hurler like that whom is still "finding his way" the worse it tends to be for the pitcher. Look for the home team to stay hot in this one and take advantage of the line value. Yes the Braves are a strong team but the pitching edge, home field edge, and momentum edge all belong to the Phillies in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-29-20 | Flyers +102 v. Islanders | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 52 m | Show |
PA Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #25 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - NOTE: This original write-up was based on the game being played Thursday evening. The game is now being played Saturday at 7 ET. I still am going with the same selection as a Top Play. Here is the original write-up: The Flyers built a 3-0 lead in yesterday's game and were still up 3-1 halfway through the final period and up 3-2 with about 2 minutes left. They then let the game slip away as Islanders tied it at 3 plus got a 2 minute power play to close out regulation. If the Isles had scored on that power play or been the club to score in overtime, the Flyers season would have likely been over. Coming back from a 2-0 deficit after a completely demoralizing loss is a lot to ask. Instead, the mood on this Philadelphia hockey club is very upbeat as they got the 4-3 OT win with a Myers goal just a couple minutes into OT. The Flyers, dating back to the regular season, have now won 17 of their past 21 games. They also hold a goalie edge for this back to back situation. It should be Varlamov and Hart in this one but lets talk about all 4 goalies because of the back to back. Greiss came in yesterday for the Islanders after Varlamov allowed 3 goals in 15 minutes. Greiss, 34 years old and having not played much at all since the spring, did play well but now this would be a back to back for a guy just coming back to live big game action. Varlamov, after his long playoff shutout streak, allowed 3 goals in 15 minutes and the Flyers are now "in his head" a little. As for Hart, he is only 22 years old and playing in a back to back wouldn't bother him in the least. If the Flyers call on their back-up, Elliott, he is a veteran player like Greiss. However, unlike Greiss, he is fresh because he did not play yesterday. Two evenly matched teams but the Flyers have momentum and goaltending on their side in this crucial swing game in this 1-1 series. Also, Philly coach Vigneault tweaked some of the lines yesterday and it paid immediate dividends. More of the same here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-29-20 | Pirates v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
Game of the Month Total - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:10 ET - The Brewers start Brett Anderson in this one. The lefty had a 4.67 ERA in home games last season (with Oakland) and has a 4.26 ERA at home so far this season. Last year he got hit at a .292 clip when pitching as the host and this season so far he has been hit at a .286 clip at Miller Park. 6 of the 7 meetings between these teams have totaled at least 9 runs. Pittsburgh, prior to yesterday's 9-1 loss, had scored at least 5 runs in 5 of 6 meetings with the Brewers this season. The fact is, as bad as the Bucs season has been thus far, they have had some success against Milwaukee pitching. Look for more of the same here but also look for Pittsburgh starter JT Brubaker to get crushed. The rookie right-hander will be facing the same team twice for the first time this season. When teams get a second look at a hurler that does make a big difference and the Brewers just saw him on Sunday. Brubaker has a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts and this could be the start where the wheels come off for him! Milwaukee got their sticks going yesterday and can carry that momentum right into today's game. Look for the high-scoring trend in Pirates / Brewers match-ups to continue on Saturday evening at Miller Park. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-29-20 | Thunder +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 80-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Saturday 10* Oklahoma City Thunder (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 6:30 ET - Now, thanks to the extra time off afforded by the boycotts and resulting postponement of NBA games, Russell Westbrook is expected back for the Rockets for this one. However, he could be on a minutes limitation and also will Houston be able to seamlessly adjust with him back on the floor? Keep in mind, we're still seeing a struggling James Harden from 3-point land as Luguentz Dort continues his strong defensive play on the perimeter for the Thunder. After falling into an 0-2 hole, Oklahoma City changed things up in a bit and went to a smaller lineup at times and it has certainly worked as this series is now tied up at 2 games apiece. Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder, a pair of point guards, have picked up their level of play and the small ball approach has paid dividends for OKC. I am expecting more of the same here in Game 5 and am happy to grab the handful of points being offered. We're getting even more value here now because the markets have reacted to the Westbrook news and have pushed the Houston spread higher. The Rockets continue to jack up a lot of threes and I fully understand that is part of their normal game but with Harden making just 11 of 39 the last three games (thanks in part to Dort covering him in these games) Houston is just a bit "off" right now. Will they be able to easily adjust to Westbrook being back on the floor? I am not so sure about that! This (Rockets being just a bit "off" in recent games) has opened the door for the Thunder to take advantage and they will do so again here. Grab the points! 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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08-28-20 | Nationals v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 10-2 | Win | 103 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals @ 7:30 ET - The Nationals Max Scherzer is, of course, a big name pitcher so that is helping to keep this total lower than it should be. Scherzer has actually struggled of late as he has allowed 4 homers in his last two starts and this has helped lead the way to him being charged with 9 earned runs in 11 and 2/3 innings. Also, Scherzer is 4-5 with a 5.90 ERA in his 11 career starts against Boston. The Red Sox start Martin Perez in this one and he is having a decent start to the season based on his ERA but that is helping to give us value here because he has been on the cusp of major trouble in a number of his starts. In other words it is likely he is eventually going to get pounded and I would not be surprised to see the wheels come off for Perez in this home start. He has struggled more at Fenway Park than on the road this season and, keep in mind, Perez had a 5.12 ERA last season and a 6.22 ERA the year before. The bad times are imminent for Perez as he won't be so lucky to escape big damage this evening. Looks like favorable weather conditions expected in Boston for this one tonight too. With the Red Sox also having a shaky bullpen and having lost more arms in recent trades, I see this game flying over the total. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -138 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #13 Wednesday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) vs Dallas Stars @ 10:30 ET - After receiving a wake-up call in Game 1 and losing badly to the Stars, the Avalanche needed to respond and they did. The problem however is the response only lasted half the game. The Avs were up 2-0 about midway through the game and then all of the sudden found themselves on the wrong end of a 2-man advantage. The last thing you want to do when you have a 2-goal lead and are looking to even a series up is to end up with two of your men in the penalty box! The rest is, as they say, history now. But the fact that the team I feel has a great shot at winning the cup this season is now in a 2-0 hole in this series makes this a fantastic spot for backing them. Yes the Stars have momentum as the puck continues to bounce their way. Give them credit but, again, Colorado let that game slip away and sometimes learning experiences come at a high price. In this case, the Avalanche let that game get away from them and it has put them in a 2-0 hole. That said, it is not too late to respond and I know the kind of effort we're going to get from this highly talented, exceptionally skilled Avalanche team in this one. Also, look for the Avs to be more grittier in this game. Even though this is not an elimination game, teams very rarely come back from a 3-0 deficit so this is about as close to a win or go home game as there is. Colorado needs more hitting and more blocked shots and, at the same time, I expect them to again heavily outshoot the Stars like they did in Game 2 (40-27 edge). Adding up all the factors and knowing that Pavel Francouz played a much better game in net than the final score would lead you to believe, I am willing to lay the moderate price (-140 range) on the Avalanche in this one and expect them to play their best game of the post-season. 10* COLORADO |
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08-26-20 | Phillies -108 v. Nationals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Washington Nationals @ 6:05 ET - The Phillies have been a streaky team this season and enter this game seeking a 3rd straight win. I'll take my chances with Aaron Nola over Patrick Corbin offering great value in this spot. Keep in mind, the Nationals have lost back to back games and are 6-12 at home this season as they continue to suffer with world championship letdown after winning it all last year. The Nats Corbin had great success against the Phillies last season but he is not the same pitcher right now. The Washington left-hander has been hit at a .302 clip in his 4 August starts and I look for him to get hit big early and often in this one. I also love backing Nola after a very rare bad start. He had been pitching like a Cy Young candidate prior to this. Before his last start was an ugly one, Nola had gone 2-0 in his 3 most recent starts and allowed just 2 earned runs on only 8 hits while striking out 30 over 21 innings! Look for him to resume that type of form here and the Phillies have improved their biggest weakness (bullpen) too with that recent trade activity. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -104 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #6 Tuesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 7 ET - The Lightning got down early against Boston in Game 1 but they fought their way through that and looked strong the rest of the way nearly rallying all the way back from a 3-0 deficit. After falling short 3-2, but infused with confidence, the Bolts will be ready to take it to the Bruins in Game 2. The Lightning are built more for the post-season than they were last year. They match up much better with Boston now and that was part of the reason that Tampa Bay took 3 of 4 regular season meetings. Game One of this series swung on a couple of big plays. One was the Bruins getting on the board with only a minute left to go in the first period. Then a power play early in the 2nd period led to their 2nd goal. This is not to take anything away from Boston but those key momentum swings were game changers. The Lightning looked much stronger and confident as the game went on and they'll carry that momentum into Game 2. I also still like Bolts goalie Vasilevskiy over Bruins goalie Jaroslav Halak. Though Halak is solid there is a reason he is the #2 behind Tuukka Rask whom now has departed the bubble. The Lightning come out flying and even this one up. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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08-25-20 | Cubs v. Tigers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #959 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs @ 7:10 ET - 2016 - 4.47 ERA. 2017 - 4-12 record 5.72 ERA. 2018 - 1-4 record 5.88 ERA. 2019 - 4.11 ERA. 2020 - 8.00 ERA. What stats are these? They are the numbers from Tyler Chatwood's night game outings. He has had some big seasons in day games but tends to struggle in night starts and now Chatwood is making this start after being out with a mid-back strain since early August. That said, this is unlikely to go well for him. The Cubs hammered the Tigers 9-3 yesterday and Detroit has now allowed an average of 7 runs per game their last 13 games. Though not a great team offensively, the Tigers have averaged 4 runs per game in their last 7 home games. With this total at a 9.5 and Chatwood likely to give up some and Spencer Turnbull likely to get hit hard, this one should easily get to double digits. Turnbull has faded recently. He started strong this season but now has allowed 6 earned runs in 6 and 2/3 innings (while walking 8!) in his last two outings (both short ones as you can see). Turnbull entered this season with a 3-19 MLB record and ERA up near 5.00 and now faces a Cubs team that is hitting .266 in home games this season which ranks them 5th out of the 30 MLB teams. Look for runs early, often, and throughout this contest. 10* OVER the total in Detroit |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #714 Tuesday 10* Top Play Denver Nuggets (+) vs Utah Jazz @ 6:30 ET - The Nuggets had a miracle cover in Game 4 when Murray hit a "meaningless" 3-pointer in the final seconds to get in the backdoor for the cash for Denver backers. From that standpoint, it would seem that Utah would be the play here. After all, the Jazz had no business not winning ATS in Game 4. However, a closer look shows something very different. The Nuggets had 100 shots from the field and shot 49% while the Jazz had just 73 shots from the field and yet Denver did not win that game outright! Are you kidding me? So what happened is that the Jazz hit a ridiculous 14 of 29 three pointers. Also, Utah had 36 free throw attempts compared to just 13 for the Nuggets. These unusually statistical disparities are highly unlikely to repeated here in Game 5 and I am riding with the highly motivated underdog here in Game 5. Not only did Denver come up just short in Game 4, the Nuggets are also highly motivated as this a win or go home game. The Jazz have a 3-1 series lead. Look for that to be a 3-2 lead for Utah after tonight's game goes into the books. 10* DENVER |
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08-24-20 | Islanders v. Flyers -110 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
PA Insider - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #2 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 7 ET - This should be a fantastic series. It is always tough to gauge teams coming into a new series because the match-ups are different and you have to factor in the prior series. In this case, I feel that edge goes to the Flyers. The Islanders are a great team and I am expecting this to be a fierce battle in this series but Game 1 sets up well for the Isles to fall short. They are coached by Barry Trotz and he is the former Capitals coach that took Washington to the Stanley Cup title win over Vegas in 2018. Now just two years later he got a chance to meet his team in the post-season and his Islanders dominated them in the 4-1 series win and it ended up getting Caps coach (and his former assistant coach) Todd Reirden fired. That was an emotional series win not only for Trotz but also his players because the players know how bad Trotz wanted that. Can they immediately handle now facing a tough Flyers team in Game 1 of this series? I think this is the one game in this series that the Flyers should dominate. They get Niskanen back, they are confident after knocking off a scrappy Canadiens team that had upset the Penguins. Yes those Penguins that include star players like Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin. The point is that the Flyers got tested by the Habs and it was good for them to build up some playoff mettle as young goalie Carter Hart continues to play as a much more experienced player than you would expect with his young age. Philly got their power play going late in the series with Montreal and that also is a confidence boost heading into this tough post-season match-up. Yes, the Islanders won all 3 regular season meetings but those were a long long time ago when the Flyers were still adjusting to new coach Alain Vigneault way back in November! Keep in mind, dating back to regular season and including the round robin action under this bubble too, the Flyers have won 16 of their last 19 games! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-24-20 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #903 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins @ 6:05 ET - Waiting has paid off here this morning as we're now seeing some 9 starting to show up on this one. This total opened up at a 9.5 which may seem high at first glance but a closer look shows you why the odds makers set it this way. Now we'll take advantage of the false perception of the betting markets that has driven this total lower. The Marlins Pablo Lopez shows a 2.42 ERA on the season but the Nationals have a number of hitters whom have enjoyed success against him. Additionally, Lopez has allowed 14 hits in 12 innings spanning his last two starts and those were both at home. In his most recent road start he allowed 5 hits plus walked 4 for a total of 9 baserunners in just 5 innings. Now Lopez must deal with a Nats team that is starting to turn the corner (particularly at the plate). Though only 7-6 in their last 13 games, Washington has scored an average of 6.4 runs per game during this stretch! The issue for the Nationals today will be on the mound as Austin Voth gets the start. He has allowed 8 earned runs on 15 hits and 5 walks in the 8 innings spanning his last two starts. Though not knocking the cover off the ball the Marlins have averaged 4.4 runs per game their last 11 games and Voth is not in good current form. Miami will take advantage. The result should be a back and forth high-scoring affair with a lot more scoring than many are expecting here. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-24-20 | Rockets v. Thunder OVER 219.5 | Top | 114-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets @ 4 ET - I am aware that it took overtime for Saturday's Game 3 between these teams to go over the total. However, the odds makers are also aware of that fact too! They set this total at 221 and it has dropped to as low as a 219 as of early game day morning. Keep in mind that would make this one about 5 points lower than the opening total for the Game 3 match-up. That said, do you really think the Rockets are going to again make just 30% of their threes (15 of 50 Saturday) or that James Harden is going to have a 3rd straight bad game from beyond the arc? Me neither! Yes I aware that Luguentz Dort is now back for the Thunder and guarding him but Harden will get his open looks from deep and start knocking them down. Adjustments are made throughout a series. Additionally, I liked the response I saw from an Oklahoma City team that showed on Saturday that they are not just going to pack it in for this series. Last but not least, Game 3 did have 120 points at halftime so it was on pace for 240 before things tightened up the rest of the way. All signs point to good value, from a situational standpoint, with this low total. I'll take it! 10* OVER the total in Oklahoma City |
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08-23-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -105 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #84 Sunday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Lightning Money Line (-) vs Boston Bruins @ 8 ET - I'll take Lightning #1 goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy over Bruins goalie Jaroslav Halak. Yes, I know Halak is more of a #1b option rather than a true #2 but Tuukka Rask is the normal starter in Boston for a reason. Halak let in a few soft goals against the Hurricanes and he is going to be tested even more here by Tampa Bay. The Bolts are a team on a mission after getting swept out of the playoffs in the first round last year. That followed a record-setting regular season for them and the Lightning enter this series a very focused team after knocking off a tough Columbus team. Yes the Bruins ultimately looked good in getting past Carolina but the monumental collapse of the Hurricanes in a game they led 3-0 was something they never bounced back from. The Canes were a disappointment in blowing that game which would have tied the series at 2 games apiece. Keep in mind, Carolina never should have lost Game 1 either as the Bruins had a goal count that never should have counted and that is why the game eventually went to OT instead of being a 3-2 Canes win. The point is that the Bruins won a double-OT game plus came back from a 3-0 third period deficit. Give them credit for that but they were facing a Carolina team that has some issues. Now they face a Lightning team with no real issues other than still waiting on Stamkos to come back but they have been (and are use to) playing without him. I also like the fact that the Bolts have experienced goaltending behind Vasilevskiy. Conversely, the Bruins back-up (because of Rask leaving the bubble) is a #3 goalie with zero NHL experience. If Halak gets hurt or struggles Boston has a significant issue. The Lightning now have the physicality to match up with the Bruins and they take Game 1 here to set the tone for this series. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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08-23-20 | Angels v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #969 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oakland A's vs Los Angeles Angels @ 4:10 ET - Friday's game had 8 runs through 6 innings and stayed under the total. Saturday's game had 7 runs through 5 innings and stayed under the total. Sunday's game? It goes over the total. The odds makers opened this game up with a total of 9 for a reason but it has dropped to an 8.5 as the betting markets think it is a mistake that this total is posted this way. That's because Dylan Bundy and Frankie Montas were so strong early this season and the thinking is that they will bounce back here. I beg to differ. One of the keys here is that Bundy has shown a history of struggling once he gets down. That said, after that great start to the season he then struggled and allowed 4 runs to the Giants in just 4 innings plus he walked 4 as he had issues with command of his pitches. When you enter a season having gone 15-30 with an ERA north of 5.00 the prior two seasons combined it doesn't take much to dent your confidence. Now Bundy faces and A's team that will be seeing him for the 3rd time already in a span of a month. That often doesn't go well for the pitcher as the more a lineup sees him, the more they start to get better swings at his pitches. This is particularly true if said pitcher is struggling with the location of his pitches. I expect a few of Bundy's mistakes end up in the outfield seats on a mild afternoon with a light breeze blowing out. As for Montas, he got absolutely crushed in his most recent start (which was also a day game by the way) as he allowed 9 earned runs in less than 2 innings of work. This will be the 2nd time he is facing the Angels this season and in the prior start he definitely "scuffled" a bit as he walked 3 plus hit a batter and overall allowed 7 baserunners in just 4 innings. That will eventually lead to trouble, just like it did for him against the Diamondbacks earlier this week. Both starting pitchers could be a helluva lot better than they just were and yet this one still will go over the low total. I like both lineups. I know the Angels have underachieved early this season but they still have some big-time pop in their lineup and the A's are generally solid at the plate in home games (particularly day games). 10* OVER the total in Oakland |
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08-23-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +8 | Top | 133-135 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #744 Sunday 10* Top Play Dallas Mavericks (+) vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 3:30 ET - The Mavericks announced that Luka Doncic's MRI showed "nothing alarming" and that he would be a game-time decision. That is another way of saying everything is fine but we just don't to announce it yet so everyone can wonder whether Doncic will play or not. Of course his ankle was hurting him bad after he got hurt and then it stiffens up on you and you can't move well out there on the floor once that happens. But now after receiving treatment ever since, Doncic will be ready to go here I am sure. We have strong big dog value here with the Mavericks in my opinion. The two losses they have had in this series each came by 8 points and that includes Friday's loss which featured a team-record 45 point 2nd quarter from the Clippers. Note that the Mavs beat the Clips by double digits in Game 2. Now, down 2-1 in this series and facing a key Game 4, Dallas is going to battle tooth and nail throughout this contest with Kawhi Leonard and company. That said, if the Mavericks do fall short look for it to be by a margin of only a bucket or two. Grab the big points! 10* DALLAS |
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08-22-20 | Stars v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 116 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Situational Shocker - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #81 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars @ 8 ET - I am calling this one a shocker because when you think of playoff hockey you think of tight, low-scoring games as a general rule. However, in this case you have a Dallas team that does its best when skating fast and allowing guys like Tyler Seguin to open things up and create in the offensive zone. As for the Avalanche, they are a very fast and skilled team and showed that in knocking off the Coyotes by identical 7-1 scores in each of the final two games of their first round series. As for the Stars, how about scoring 7 straight times to win 7-3 after allowing the first three goals against the Flames in that game? The fact is both these hockey clubs are very confident in the offensive zone right now and we're getting line value because all 4 regular season meetings between these teams (as well as the round robin game too) totaled 5 or less goals. That said, how can this total be posted at 5.5 goals by the odds makers? Exactly! It is going over folks. The Stars have won 4 of their last 5 games and scored an average of 4.8 goals per game in those 4 wins. The Avalanche are averaging 4.1 goals per game their last 7 games. Look for a wild one here. I know that is not the norm in playoff hockey but this is a situational play. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | Top | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #736 Saturday 10* Top Play Oklahoma City Thunder (+) vs Houston Rockets @ 6 ET - The Thunder got a boost defensively in Game 2 as Dort returned to the lineup. He is the best perimeter defender Oklahoma City has and he was a big part of the reason the Rockets Harden was held to 5 of 16 from the field. Though the Thunder still ultimately lost the game their confidence is up after leading the game going to the 4th quarter. The Thunder had too many turnovers compared to Houston and that cost OKC the game. Oklahoma City is a perfect 5-0 SU the last 5 times they have entered Game 3 of a playoff series down 2 games to none. This is a contrarian play as the line has moved toward the Rockets and I love the Thunder in this spot as they finally put it all together on both ends of the floor after playing much better defense in Game 2. Look for Game 3 to be a complete game for the underdog. 10* OKLAHOMA CITY |
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08-22-20 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #901 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:05 ET - Of course I am well aware of the fact that the Pirates have been the worst team in MLB so far this season. I am also well aware of the fact that the Brewers have struggled at the plate thus far on the season. However, this total was set at 9.5 with good reason and I think the set up is ideal for a big game at the plate for both teams. The Pirates have a much needed boost of confidence after yesterday's 7-2 win saw them pound out 14 hits. The Brewers had a tough time at the plate yesterday but will take advantage of facing Pittsburgh's Derek Holland here. He is winless with a 7.36 ERA in his 4 games this season and has been particularly bad in his 3 starts. Holland got progressively worse with each start he made and the Brewers get to him early and often in this one. The Pirates will likely strike out often against Josh Lindblom but the Milwaukee right-hander still has a knack for giving up big hits and Pittsburgh is "feeling it" at the plate after yesterday's big win. Lindblom has a 7.07 ERA so far this month and has had trouble with allowing too many homers. On the season the journeyman right-hander has given up too many walks too as he has had trouble with command of his pitches. Look for more of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Pittsburgh |
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08-21-20 | Flyers -129 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #15 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Montreal Canadiens @ 7 ET - It has been feast or famine for the Canadiens so far in this series and I expect the latter to be the result in Friday's Game 6. Yes the Habs exploded for 5 goals in a wild one in Game 5 (and also in Game 2 when the Flyers didn't show up and Montreal was playing for their coach - heart surgery) but in the other 3 games the Canadiens not only lost but they scored a TOTAL of 1 goal in those 3 games! Flyers netminder Carter Hart has a knack for bouncing back off poor outings and he did not look good on Wednesday. That said, the young goalie is cool under pressure and had come up with back to back shutouts in Games 3 and 4 after that ugly Game 2 where his teammates hung him out to dry. Speaking of teammates and how they react around Hart, the fact that Montreal's Suzuki tapped Hart on the helmet after the Habs scored their 2nd goal to tie the game on Wednesday will be accounted for. I don't wish ill will upon anyone but Suzuki has a bullseye on his back for this game. Already the Flyers Niskanen (suspended for this game) broke the jaw of Gallagher (one of Montreal's best players) after the Suzuki incident. Gallagher is now out for the rest of the post-season (which I suspected the end would have been coming tonight anyway) and they will struggle to overcome his absence. He is a speedy player and an agitator on the ice. The Canadiens will miss him more than the Flyers will miss Niskanen although certainly the D-man is an important player for Philly. In terms of coaching the Flyers bench guys have the most combined experience of any coaching staff in the NHL. They hold a huge edge over Montreal with Claude Julien still recovering from heart surgery and with an assistant coach now handling coaching duties for the Canadiens. Philly also got their power play going in Wednesday's Game 5 and that is a key confidence boost for this team. They earned their #1 seed and, dating back to the regular season, had won 15 of their last 17 games prior to the Game 5 loss. Payback time here and don't be surprised if someone taps Suzuki on the head in the handshake line after this game is over as the Flyers send the Canadiens packing. Big mistake on Suzuki's part and he and his teammates will pay the price after lighting a fire under the Flyers for this game 6. Philly will be buzzing all over the ice for this one and will have their skating legs going at 110%! 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-21-20 | Phillies -107 v. Braves | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Scott 'The Bulldog" Rickenbach MLB Rotation #961 Friday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:10 ET - Two words. Aaron Nola. Yes, I know that the Braves Max Fried has good numbers this season too. However, he recently faced the Phillies on August 9th and, though the stat line looks good, Fried had to survive a couple of jams to get through his 5 scoreless innings. Look for the Phillies potent lineup to break through against him this time. As for the Braves, they couldn't get anything going against Nola in his 8 innings. He was never really threatened and only allowed 1 solo homer in that start. He has been absolutely dominant early this season and his ability to work deep into games negates the impact of a sub-par Phillies bullpen. Yes, when the pen is called upon in the middle innings it is a problem but when only needed at the end of a game for an inning or two they can get the job done. Nola has been a workhorse and piling up strikeouts and allowing very few hits. More of the same here. The Braves are 8-3 at home this season and the Phillies are 1-4 on the road. So that means the odds makers are clueless, right? You guys know how I feel about that. The odds makers are sharp and this game is priced this way for a reason. Nola and the Phillies get it done after a frustrating double header result in Buffalo (faced Toronto) yesterday. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz OVER 218 | Top | 87-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets @ 4 ET - Not only are the Jazz scoring very well so far in this series, Mike Conley is expected to clear quarantine and return to the floor for this one! He gives Utah another dangerous scorer and is expected to be back in the lineup Friday. The Jazz saw Donovan Mitchell go off for a ton of points in Game 1 and then in Game 2 he became more of a distributor and Utah was equally as dangerous on the offensive end. That said, I don't see Denver suddenly slowing the Jazz down in this one. Utah is simply playing with too much confidence and have looked great on the offensive end. However, I certainly do expect the Nuggets to respond in a big way after dropping Game 2 in ugly fashion and that means plenty of points expected from Denver in this one too. We are getting line value because the totals continue to be set somewhat based on long-term numbers and, the fact is, the Jazz are playing a different style of basketball right now than they were during the regular season. Utah, had they not lost Game 1 in OT, could easily be up 2-0 in this series. That said, the old adage of "if it ain't broke don't try to fix it" applies here and the Jazz keep piling up points. However, in this one the Nuggets end up keeping pace with them in what should be a dandy of a game as they respond off of Wednesday's loss. 10* OVER the total in Utah |
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08-20-20 | Islanders v. Capitals OVER 5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #5 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Washington Capitals vs New York Islanders @ 8 ET – The Capitals Alex Ovechkin got going in their Game 4 win Tuesday and that is a good sign for Washington. It is always toughest to get that 4th win in a series and the Islanders know it. That said, expect a much better game from the Isles here but the Capitals now have confidence again and this is particularly true in the offensive zone. That should lead to plenty of goals in this one. We have seen a lot of high-scoring games in potential elimination games in recent days. When teams are putting it all on the line to save their season the scoring has gone up in most of those contests. 3 of the 4 games in this series have totaled 5 or more goals and, especially given the dynamics of this situation, I expect that this one will too. Starting with Blackhawks/Golden Knights Tuesday night, 4 of the 5 games in which a team was facing elimination totaled 7 or more goals. I expect a 4-3 type game here and will grab the value with this total at 5 goals. 10* OVER the total in Washington |
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08-20-20 | Magic v. Bucks -12.5 | Top | 96-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach NBA Rotation #716 Thursday 10* Top Play Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs Orlando Magic @ 6 ET – It was the first game in a week for Giannis Antetokounmpo on Tuesday (he missed the final game of the regular season after the head butt incident) and, overall, the Bucks looked like the same team that casually went through bubble play as there was no real need to push hard. Now, the push needs to come after they got embarrassed by the Magic and lost by a double-digit margin as a double-digit favorite. While many will look to again grab the big dog here (how can they again be favored by so much after Game 1 played out like it did?) I am on the other side of this game in typical contrarian fashion. Remember last season the Magic beat the Raptors in a Game 1 upset and then proceeded to lose the next 4 and get ousted from the playoffs. I am not saying the same thing happens in this one but I just know the Bucks got their “wake up call” and will be ready to respond in a big way here on Thursday. Look for Milwaukee to be much better on the defensive end and I also do not expect Middleton and Lopez to again combine for 6 for 21 from the field. Off the bench Connaughton and DiVincenzo combined for 2 for 10 from the field. Again, unlikely to be repeated! Giannis Antetokounmpo and his Bucks teammates bring their “A game” to this one and the Magic aren’t going to again hit nearly 50% from the field, 40% from 3-point land, nor 95% from the free throw line. Everything clicked for Orlando in Game 1 but the Bucks give them a dose of reality here and that is why I am more than willing to play the big number for a top play in this one. 10* MILWAUKEE |
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08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies OVER 11 | Top | 10-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 33 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation – Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach MLB Rotation #905 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Houston Astros @ 3:10 ET – This line has moved overnight from an 11.5 down to an 11 and that is giving us even more line value in what is an excellent situation here. The Astros and Rockies combined for 19 runs yesterday. A lot of it came off the bullpens as the teams combined for 30 hits. When you factor in the bullpen struggles with the fact that both starting pitchers should struggle today and both lineups scored well yesterday and it is an afternoon game at a very hitter-friendly ballpark…you have all the ingredients for a slug-fest here. The Astros Cristian Javier has great numbers on the young season but he is a 23-year old rookie making his first ever start at Coors Field and he already has a 6.00 ERA this season. As for the Rockies German Marquez, I know he is a quality pitcher with good stuff but the Astros have a number of hitters that have fared well against him and the key is that he is a much better pitcher on the road than at home. He has a low ERA this season at home but that has been in just 2 starts and opponents have hit .288 against him at Coors Field. In other words, the earned runs are soon to follow! Last season Marquez was hit at a .317 clip at home and compiled a 6.26 ERA. Look for runs early, often, and throughout what should be a wild day game affair. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-19-20 | 76ers +5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NBA Rotation #705 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - This line makes no sense really except that sentiment is very anti-Sixers right now. The fact is this line is very close to the same it was for Game 1 even though the 76ers led Game 1 outright by 6 points early in the 4th quarter. Additionally, Gordon Hayward (played 34 minutes in Game 1) is now out for the rest of the series with a Grade 3 ankle strain. He'll be replaced by Marcus Smart but that further weakens a Celtics bench that the Sixers Alec Burks outscored all by himself as he had 18 points and the Boston bench had just 8 points in the opener. As much as I don't 100% trust Joel Embiid I do expect him to finish this game much better than he finished the Game 1 match-up as he couldn't get the big buckets when he needed to. The Sixers are desperate to even this series up and the situation is perfect for them to do just that after falling just short in Monday's game and now Hayward being out. The Celtics are short-handed and Philly is hungry and did win 3 of the 4 regular season match-ups between these teams. I'll gladly grab the points here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-19-20 | Coyotes v. Avalanche OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach NHL Rotation #73 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Avalanche vs Arizona Coyotes @ 5:30 ET - I absolutely expect a better "compete level" from the Coyotes here in Game 5 after they got thoroughly embarrassed in the 7-1 loss in Game 4 on Monday. However, the only way Arizona is going to compete is to take some chances to open things up offensively because you know the Avalanche are going to get theirs! Colorado is a high-octane very dangerous team and they were already clicking even in the Game 3 loss. That was a 4-2 loss for the Avs but they fired 51 shots on goal. Now that they have finally broken through big-time against Coyotes goalie Darcy Keumper, the floodgates are truly wide open. Look for the Avalanche to keep coming in waves in this one just like they did in the blowout win in Game 4. The Avs are averaging nearly 4 goals per game in this series and the Coyotes are averaging 2.3 goals per game the last 3 games. We can expect at least a 4-2 type game here in my opinion and the odds maker have moved the total from a 5 (prior games) to a 5.5 (this game) with good reason. Like I said, the floodgates are now open for this ultra dangerous Avalanche team and, at the other end, the Coyotes will have to take chances and try to create some good scoring chances. It is their only chance to possibly keep up in this game and have a chance to spring the upset. The over 5.5 is available at a solid plus money price so this is another added benefit here and I am going with a top play here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-18-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:35 ET - The Orioles start Wade LeBlanc in this one. He went 6-7 with a 5.71 ERA last season and that included getting rocked when he faced the Blue Jays as a member of the Mariners. So far his time in a Baltimore uniform hasn't gone any better. He has a 7.13 ERA in his first four starts as an Oriole this season. Look for Toronto to get to him early and often in this one. The issue for the Jays will be the fact that hard-throwing rookie Nate Pearson is enduring some growing pains. After going 5 scoreless in his debut, Pearson allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his next start and had some issues with command of his pitches in that one. That then really became an issue for Pearson in his next start as he was absolutely rocked by the Marlins and walked 4 while striking out just 1 in that one. The Orioles scored just 2 runs in last night's game but entered that one averaging 6.9 runs per game over their preceding 10 games. Baltimore has allowed 6.9 runs per game in their past 7 games. The Blue Jays last 5 games have totaled an average of 13.4 runs per game. More of the same on tap in this one. 10* OVER the total in Baltimore |
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08-18-20 | Thunder v. Rockets +2.5 | Top | 108-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
TNT Annihilation - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #772 Tuesday 10* Top Play Houston Rockets (+) vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:30 ET - The big story for Game 1 of this series is the Rockets Russell Westbrook not playing. The story that is not getting as much press but is a key factor here is Luguentz Dort not playing. The Thunder guard is earning a reputation as a lockdown defender and did a fantastic job stifling James Harden when these teams met in January. However, he is not going to play in this game and a massive game from Harden can be expected. The Rockets version of small ball is not easy to play against and Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan spoke about the length and physicality that Houston plays with even though they are not a big team. Yes the Rockets enter the post-season off 3 straight losses but how motivated were they for those games? Houston did beat the Lakers and the Bucks earlier in bubble action. Also, the Rockets just wrapped up a 72-game season and only twice did they have a 4-game losing streak. I don't see this streak reaching that 4-game mark as you can see Houston having a 4-game losing streak is rare. We are getting some extra value here because the market move is toward OKC in early trading action. In typical contrarian fashion, I am grabbing the value on the other side as Rockets coach Mike D'Antoni (2x NBA Coach of the Year winner) wins the Xs and Os battle in this one. 10* HOUSTON |
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08-18-20 | Flames v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #67 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Dallas Stars vs Calgary Flames @ 5:30 ET - Contrasting styles in this match-up and it is leading to more offense as the series has gone on. Two of the last three games have totaled 9 goals. The Stars got a wake-up call with the 2-0 shutout loss in Game 3 and they won't look back now. I am not saying they win this game but I am just saying that the 5-4 OT win in Game 4 showed them how they need to play. They can't match the physical play and size of the Flames but they can try and play faster and out-skate them. We saw flashes of that in Game 4 and it helped lead to a game with plenty of goals. The problem for the Stars is that they have had to use big players like Oleksiak for extended minutes to try and match the size of the Flames but he committed multiple penalties that hurt the Stars in Game 4 and led to power play goals for Calgary. Also, he made questionable decisions with the puck in my opinion. This is leading to turnovers and we're seeing a lot of great scoring chances for each club in this one because of the way they are playing. It is certainly not tight, defensive-minded hockey. It is more like first one to score 5 goals wins. In all seriousness, the Flames have averaged 4 goals per game their past 6 games and the Stars have their offense back (and confidence back) thanks to winning 2 of the last 3 games by a score of 5-4. With this total at 5 goals for this one I feel we have solid value on the over. I feel there is plenty of justification for this total to have moved to a 5.5 and it hasn't. Great line value as a result and I am expecting a 4-3 type game. 10* OVER the total in Dallas |
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08-17-20 | Bruins v. Hurricanes +113 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #58 Monday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) vs Boston Bruins @ 8 ET - Look for a rally the troops game for Carolina as everyone will step up their game here after the Andrei Svechnikov injury in Game 3. He had a goal and assist in the Hurricanes Game 2 win. Now, after losing Game 3, it will be payback time for the Hurricanes. Keep in mind, Carolina should have won Game 1. The Bruins had a goal count in regulation that never should have counted. Had it not counted, the game would have never ended up in OT. Instead it would have been a 3-2 Canes win in regulation. The fact is these are 2 very evenly matched teams and I like getting the underdog value with a Hurricanes club looking to respond big off a loss and show a response after the Svechnikov injury. Additionally, I know that Jaroslav Halak is a solid netminder for the Bruins but he didn't have time to think too much when #1 goalie Tuukka Rask made his announcement that he was leaving the bubble just prior to Game 3. Now, with plenty of time for Halak to ponder everything and realize he is the #1 and Rask is gone, he might be more easily "rattled" by Hurricanes shots in this one and I am sure the Canes will be coming in waves in this must win game. They can't afford to go down 3-1 in this series. 10* CAROLINA |
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08-17-20 | Mets v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
NL East Total of the Year - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Miami Marlins vs New York Mets @ 7:10 ET - The Mets are hungry to bounce back after getting swept by the division rival Phillies. New York faced some tough starting pitching in that series but now gets a break in facing the Marlins Jordan Yamamoto. Miami is also looking to bounce back after suffering a home shutout at the hands of the Braves yesterday. They will take advantage of facing a Mets bullpen that struggled some in the series at Philadelphia. Certainly that bullpen is likely to be called upon early in this one because starter Robert Gsellman is unlikely to pitch deep into this game. The Mets are expecting around 50 pitches in this one for him after he threw only 33 in his first start. Gsellman was impressive in his short rookie campaign in 2016 but has a 4.83 ERA since then so he has been nothing special and is still trying to get "stretched out" early this season. Yamamoto is struggling with allowing too many homers early this season and last year (his rookie campaign) he was much better on the road in comparison with at home as he compiled a 6.00 ERA in his 8 home starts. Yamamoto has allowed 4 earned runs and 2 home runs in each of his two starts so far this season even though he didn't last more than 4 innings in either one. He is facing a Mets team whose .262 team batting average ranks 2nd in the National League behind only Colorado. Look for the Mets to pound Yamamoto while the Marlins bounce back at the plate at home after being shutout yesterday. 10* OVER the total in Miami |
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08-17-20 | 76ers +6 v. Celtics | Top | 101-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #755 Monday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Boston Celtics @ 6:30 ET - The 76ers won 3 of the 4 meetings in the regular season but lost the most recent game after winning the first 3. Philly is also seeking revenge for their 2018 playoff ouster at the hands of the Celtics. That series turned when Boston rallied from a 22 point deficit to win Game 2 and then took Game 3 in an overtime win. Now the Sixers have Al Horford going against his former team and seek payback beginning Monday evening. There is a lot of anti-Sixer sentiment since Ben Simmons was lost to injury but the 76ers have shown signs of playing better since he went out. They raise their game to another level here and possibly shock the Celtics in game one. Look for a tight game here late and if the Sixers fall short I expect it only be by a bucket or two. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-16-20 | Flyers -130 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
PA Insider - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #49 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Flyers Money Line (-) vs Montreal Canadiens @ 8 ET - The Canadiens gave a huge effort in Game 2 to even this series up as they played inspired hockey right from the first drop of the puck. Their head coach Claude Julien was in the hospital and is now recovering from heart surgery and you have to give Montreal credit for a great effort in Game 2. However, not only did the Habs win that game they "showed up" the Flyers a little bit as assistant coach Kirk Muller (filling in for Julien) put his top power play unit on the ice late in the game and with the Canadiens already up 5-0. This did not go unnoticed by the Flyers and I already would have expected a huge response from Philly in Game 3 but that fact only strengthens their resolve. Keep in mind Philly was one of the hottest teams down the stretch in the regular season and the Canadiens were quite cold late in the season. Yes the Habs have a great goalie in Carey Price but the Flyers goalie Carter Hart plays like he is much older than his young age and is certainly showing signs, Game 2 notwithstanding, that he is going to be a great goalie in this league. Look for Hart and the Flyers to bounce back strong in Game 2. We're getting great line value here as a line that was closer to the -160 range in prior games is now down in the -130 range. The Flyers didn't show up in Game 2. They will be there in Game 3 and anybody that looks up and down the roster of skaters on these teams knows that the Flyers are the better team in this series. Yes, Montreal having Price in goal is big but the Flyers Hart has been fantastic in key games this season and this is another key game. Philly beat Price in Game 1 and I don't see them going down 2-1 in this series against a 12 seed! Yes the Habs got past the Penguins but Malkin looked out of sorts in that series and the Pens just aren't what they use to be. Philly earned the #1 seed with a strong regular season and then fantastic play in the round robin. One game doesn't change all that. It is payback time here. Head coach Alain Vigneault and the Flyers can't wait for their chance at redemption and they'll make it count here. Look for some of Philly's top guys to get going in this series. It shows how deep that Philly is that they have played well (up until Friday) in this post-season and yet many of their big guns have been held off the scoresheet. I look for that to change here. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-16-20 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 3:10 ET - For those of you that were with me on the over in this match-up yesterday we share in our feelings of disbelief. I have been in this business for multiple decades and that was one of the most frustrating games I have ever watched. Ultimately we fell just short which didn't surprise me because we had so many wasted opportunities inning after inning and I knew this would ultimately cost us. The teams threatened constantly but went a combined 4 for 29 with runners in scoring position. That is not a mistake in my typing...there were indeed 29 at-bats with runners in scoring position and yet the teams failed to cash in time and time again. The teams also combined to hit into 5 double plays in the game. You couldn't script a much more frustrating game for an over player. I was dead wrong when I played the over in this match-up Friday but I was spot on Saturday and the result was just a ridiculous bad beat. It happens. Look for the 3rd time to be the charm. Afternoon game at Coors Field with designated hitter too plus temperatures near 100 degrees and practically no humidity. In this very light air the ball will be carrying like crazy and I look for both these pitchers to get hit hard. I know Kolby Allard has strong numbers for the Rangers this season but that is in very limited action. This is still a guy who has a 5.34 ERA in his MLB career. When he faced Colorado as a member of the Braves two years ago he gave up 3 earned runs in just 1 inning and that start was in Atlanta. Now he faces them at Coors Field and the Rockies get to him early and often in my opinion. As for Colorado starter Jon Gray, he is winless with a 6.41 ERA in his four starts this season. Gray has a 7.08 ERA at home this season and entered this season going 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA in day game outings the past two seasons combined. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:10 ET - I missed badly with this play yesterday but won't hesitate to come right back with it here. Favorable weather for an over expected at Coors Field tonight in Denver and I like this pitching match-up in terms of expecting plenty of runs. I know German Marquez has great numbers this season but he has only made one of his four starts at home. Keep in mind this guy would have even more fantastic numbers if he didn't have to pitch his home games at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Marquez had a 6.26 ERA at home last season and got hit at a .317 clip there. His most recent start was at Seattle and he did allow 5 runs though only 2 were earned. His strikeouts were down in that start too. I feel that is a sign of things to come here for Marquez as he now makes just his 2nd home start of the season. The Rangers counter with Kyle Gibson and I feel strongly that his better years are far behind him. Having spent most of his career in the AL he has never faced the Rockies and they will give him a rude welcome to Coors Field here. Gibson entered this season having had just one solid season out of the past four years in terms of a low ERA. In the other 3 seasons his ERA was a 5.00 combined. He'll struggle here in hitter-friendly Coors Field and both teams bounce back at the plate after last night's unusual pitchers' duel here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-15-20 | Avalanche v. Coyotes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 120 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #37 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Arizona Coyotes vs Colorado Avalanche @ 3 ET - No excuse for yesterday's game not to go over the total. The game was tied 2-2 after two periods. The Coyotes played much better in the offensive zone after being shutout in Game One. The Avalanche continued to show how dangerous they are with high skill and speed at the forward position. Yet missing a couple shots at the empty net ultimately resulted in a game that ended 3-2. I especially like this situation because it is a back to back and is a day game too. This puts extra stress because the Coyotes back-up goalie Raanta just now returned from injury and Kuemper is likely to get the start in this back to back spot. As strong as he has been this is still a tough situation for a netminder. The Avalanche have mostly used Grubauer throughout this post-season so now he goes in the 2nd game of a back to back or its Francouz that gets the start (likely) and he could show some rust. When you consider these factors and yesterday's tough result for over players plus the fact that the over 5.5 is available at +120 here, you have great value on the over in this spot. Arizona is down 2-0 in the series and will continue to push for more offensive zone time here even if it means more risk of trouble in their own defensive zone. Coyotes desperate for a win and the Avalanche want to play a more aggressive game after they were held in check for stretches in Game 2. Remember that in Game 1 the Avs had plenty of shots before finally breaking through. I expect this game to be their true breakout game as they score 4 or 5 goals and the Coyotes net at least a couple again. 10* OVER the total in Arizona |
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08-15-20 | Grizzlies +6 v. Blazers | Top | 122-126 | Win | 102 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #723 Saturday 10* Top Play Memphis Grizzlies (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 2:30 ET - Portland was the much hotter team in the bubble but they certainly haven't looked that impressive recently in terms of blowing teams out. Yes, the Trail Blazers are on a 3-game winning streak but the 3 wins came by a combined total of 7 points! The Blazers barely got by a Brooklyn team that was playing for nothing on Thursday night! Now Portland comes into this game favored by a half-dozen points and I understand that from the standpoint that the Grizzlies have underachieved under the bubble. However, lets not forget that Memphis is the better team on the defensive end and, though just 2-2 in their last 4 games, this a must win game or their season is over. Perhaps the Grizzlies ultimately fall short by a bucket or two but, again, I am happy to take the better defensive team in a game that could turn into more of a "grinder" than most are expecting based on the high total posted on this game. Look for the dog to stay within this number and possibly even spring the upset! Give me the points! 10* MEMPHIS |
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08-14-20 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 12.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Total Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #919 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Texas Rangers @ 8:40 ET - The Rangers Lance Lynn had a strong start against the Rockies to open up this season but that game was in Texas. Now he gives the Colorado sticks another look at him and the game is at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Lynn went a combined 11-17 in road starts the past two seasons and that included having an ERA above 6.00 in outings away from home in 2018. His breaking stuff may not break as well given the weather conditions expected in Denver Friday evening. He'll be opposed by Rockies rookie Ryan Castellani who had a successful 4-inning stint in his MLB debut. Keep in mind that was on the road at Seattle and now he'll battle the much tougher conditions of pitching at Coors Field. First starts for young hurlers at Coors Field tend to not go well. Castellani did pitch well against the Mariners but did give up quite a lot of hard contact. That will lead to more trouble here than it did in the Pacific Northwest. The result should be runs early and often in this one. The Rockies series with the Diamondbacks averaged 18.3 runs per game and that was a 3-game set that wrapped up Wednesday. Look for this weekend set to also be high-scoring. 9 of the Rangers last 13 games have been games that got into a total of double digits in terms of runs scored and, of course, at Coors Field those types of games would translate to about 15 runs. Look for a slugfest here. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-14-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -118 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #31 Friday 10* Top Play Washington Capitals Money Line (-) vs New York Islanders @ 8 ET - Washington let game one slip away as they blew a 2-0 lead. It was good that the Capitals had John Carson back on the ice but now they've lost Nicklas Backstrom for game two courtesy of a big hit from the Islanders Anders Lee that certainly did not go unnoticed by Tom Wilson and the Caps. The point is that this is a highly emotional series right off the bat as former Washington head coach Barry Trotz is now the head coach of the Islanders. These teams don't like each other at all and what I like about the Capitals in this spot is that they have been there done that! This is a team that won the Stanley Cup two years ago and knows how to handle adversity. That said, though the Islanders are a very strong team in their own right and may end up winning this series, I see the Capitals responding in a big way here in Game 2 and getting the win. Yes the series is early but to go into an 0-2 hole would be tough to climb out of and the Caps respond in a big way here in Game 2 after what happened in Game 1. I am speaking about the 2-0 lead being blown in the 4-2 loss and I am talking about Backstrom getting knocked out of the game. You are going to see a very focused effort from Alex Ovechkin and company in this one and they will not be denied. Take advantage of the low price being offered on this one. 10* WASHINGTON |
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08-14-20 | Thunder v. Clippers OVER 222 | Top | 103-107 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #719 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 6:30 ET - I am sticking with the pattern that has been working very well for me. Two teams involved that will both be playing back-ups and that means very little defensive pressure is likely and we should see a run and gun high-scoring affair. The Clippers enter this game with having played 6 straight games that totaled 229 points or more. The only game that has been low-scoring for LA under the bubble in Orlando was their very first game which was against the Lakers. Of course you will see nothing like the defensive intensity of that game here. In fact you will see the exact opposite and the back-ups will score just fine. In fact, look at Oklahoma City's most recent game. They rallied from a huge deficit thanks in large part to bench production and they beat the Heat 116-115 on Wednesday. The bench led the way to the comeback win. The Thunder reserves showed me a lot with that performance there but it was also the 3rd time in 4 games that OKC has allowed 115 points or more. That said, I look for this game to get into the 230s with plenty of scoring on both ends of the floor as it plays out with the defensive intensity of an All-Star game. In all seriousness this is like an All-Star game but without all the all-stars. It will be free flowing with a lot of great looks at the basket and I'll take advantage of the rather low total posted on this game which is based more on historical data than the true situation here. 10* OVER the total in Los Angeles Clippers |
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08-13-20 | Pelicans v. Magic OVER 226 | Top | 127-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Situational Slaughter – Rickenbach NBA Rotation #701 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs New Orleans Pelicans @ 9 ET – In a meaningless game I am looking for a very free-flowing affair with very little defense and a ton of points scored. The Magic are locked in as the #8 seed in the East while the Pelicans are eliminated from playoff contention in the West. New Orleans has allowed 125 points per game in their last 4 losses. The Pelicans have averaged a respectable 114.2 points per game in their last 5 games on the other end of the floor. The Magic have lost 5 straight games and not scored well. But in their first two games under the bubble they averaged 130 points and those games got into the mid-240s. Again, there is no pressure here and this will be a free-flowing game where the shooters can run and gun and without any concern about the end result. This will play out like an All-Star game except with very few stars involved! Just a ton of offense and no defense. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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08-13-20 | Hurricanes +129 v. Bruins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 129 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Thursday 10* Top Play Carolina Hurricanes Money Line (+) vs Boston Bruins @ 8 ET - After Carolina (and yours truly) got ripped off by the Bruins in Game 1 yesterday, we'll look for payback here in Game 2. Yesterday's game should have ended 3-2 in regulation time as a Hurricanes win. The Bruins were given a goal they never deserved on a play where the officials said there was no hand pass because the goalie then froze the puck after the hand pass. But if he froze the puck after the hand pass how is that the Bruins were allowed to play a frozen puck and score a key goal? This is not just a disgruntled Hurricanes bettor telling you this. I am telling you that all analysts who watched that play and spoke about it agreed. It was an egregious error by the officiating crew. Basically an impossible goal to allow to be counted in a situation like that. You can only imagine how fired up Carolina is here and they can't wait for this shot at quick redemption here in Game 2 and are happy this is a back to back spot so they can get right back on the ice. The Hurricanes welcomed back Dougie Hamilton in Game 1 and could get Justin Williams and Sami Vatanen both back for Game 2 on Thursday night. After the tough loss in the 2nd overtime yesterday, the Hurricanes will respond in a big way in Game 2. Yes, Boston is a strong team but they only won 4 of their last 8 regular season games in regulation time and still have not won a game in regulation in the bubble in Toronto. Look for that streak to continue here (4 straight games without a regulation win) and this time the Bruins are on the losing end. The Hurricanes are ultra hungry after getting swept out of the post-season by the Bruins last year and then after a frustrating result in game one. 10* CAROLINA |
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08-13-20 | Rays v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 17-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #957 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:30 ET - Kyle Hart is a rookie making his first ever MLB appearance and the Red Sox southpaw will face a Rays team that is suddenly scoring runs aplenty. Tampa Bay is on a 5-game winning streak and averaging 7 runs per 9 innings during this hot streak. They are scoring well and that continues here against a rookie that will prove to be over-matched in his first ever MLB appearance plus has a bad bullpen behind him. Don't be surprised if the Red Sox also do plenty of damage at the plate in this one too. Boston had 5 runs on 12 hits yesterday and now faces Tyler Glasnow. The Tampa Bay right-hander is struggling to round into form this season. Glasnow has a 7.36 ERA in the month of August and has struggled to command his offerings. Too many walks getting him into trouble. That continues here and this one flies over the total at hitter-friendly Fenway Park. 10* OVER the total in Boston |
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08-12-20 | Raptors v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 125-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #764 Wednesday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Toronto Raptors @ 6:35 ET - The Raptors are locked into the #2 seed for the post-season and already know they'll be facing the Nets to open up the playoffs. The 76ers are dealing with injury issues and certainly can't afford to lose any more key players. That said, this game is a battle of back-ups. Keep in mind yesterday the 76ers played back-ups against a very hungry Suns team that was highly motivated and undefeated under the bubble. Phoenix finally pulled away in the 4th quarter but the Sixers were down by just 3 points with under 8 minutes to go in that game. Keep in mind, that was a game the Suns had to have while the 76ers were just playing back-ups for the most part. Now today's game is a game of back-ups and Toronto is not motivated. That said, I love the underdog value being offered to Philly in this one. Don't be surprised if they get an upset win but certainly they should manage at least the cover against the Raptors in this one. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-11-20 | Braves v. Yankees OVER 10 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #955 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in New York Yankees vs Atlanta Braves @ 7:05 ET - Jordan Montgomery got rocked by the Phillies in his most recent start. Also, the Yankees southpaw is known for struggling against right-handed bats and he'll see plenty of those in the Braves lineup tonight. As for Atlanta starter Touki Toussaint, he is off a great start versus the Blue Jays but he is known for struggling in road outings. Pitching at Yankee Stadium against the potent Bronx Bombers is no easy task so this is likely to be a particularly rough outing for Toussaint. I know the Atlanta right-hander had his curve working against Toronto in his most recent start but he'll hang a few of those tonight and the Yankees sure know what to do with those! The Yankees .455 slugging percentage is #1 in the American League. The Braves .460 slugging percentage in road games is #1 in the National League (not including Nationals as they just played their first road game of the season). Considering the above factors as well as the fact that a light breeze is expected to be blowing out to left field for this one, and you have all the right ingredients for a slugfest in the Bronx tonight. 10* OVER the total in New York Yankees |
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08-11-20 | Suns v. 76ers OVER 226 | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Philadelphia 76ers vs Phoenix Suns @ 4:35 ET - I used the Suns over here yesterday and it cashed and I will come right back with it again today. Phoenix has yet to lose a game under the bubble. Yesterday's win was their 6th straight and they've averaged 120 points per game during this red hot stretch. Of course that is why they're such a huge favorite here against a 76ers team that will be playing entirely back-ups in this one. A combination of rest and injury factors mean 2nd and 3rd stringers take the floor for this one. I know that may concern some in terms of whether Philly will score enough here. But with no pressure on the Sixers I am expecting them to play a very free-flowing game with a lack of defense on one end and some hot shooting on the other end. Again, no pressure on these 76ers and the Suns have proven their very happy to "run and gun" with teams. The result should be a nice pace to this game and one that easily eclipses the rather low total on this one considering the Suns are averaging 120 points per game in the bubble and are facing a Philly team that is already counting down the days to the playoffs beginning. Little resistance from the Sixers in this one and a ton of points as a result. 10* OVER the total in Philadelphia |
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08-10-20 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 12-8 | Win | 103 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #913 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 8:40 ET - Hot weather expected today in Denver and then a nice south wind helping us out through the evening. I am looking for a high-scoring slugfest at Coors Field on Monday night. The Rockies Jon Gray actually has a tendency to pitch well at home but that hasn't been the case against the Diamondbacks. Versus Arizona in 5 home starts in his career, Gray is winless with a 6.08 ERA. Also Gray has shown a tendency to struggle more against lefties than righties and he'll face plenty of left-handed lumber in the Dbacks lineup tonight. As for Arizona starter he is struggling badly early this season and the last place you want to try to work out your struggles as an MLB pitcher is Coors Field! In this most hitter-friendly venue, look for Ray to get crushed. He is 1-2 with a 9.45 ERA so far this season. Also, the Rockies lineup is absolutely loaded with guys who have crushed Ray. Colorado has seen plenty of Ray since they are divisional rivals and this is his 6th straight season as a full time starter for the Diamondbacks. I know Arizona has not hit well on the road this season but Coors Field is very kind to hitters and they've enjoyed success here against Gray. Also, the Rockies are the #1 home hitting team in the majors with a .293 BAA thus far on the season. 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-10-20 | Thunder v. Suns OVER 224 | Top | 101-128 | Win | 100 | 5 h 22 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #737 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 2:35 ET - The Suns are 5-0 in the bubble thanks in part to offensive production. Indeed, Phoenix is averaging 116.4 points per game in their 5 games in the bubble. On the other end of the floor the Suns have allowed 112 points or more in 4 of the 5 games. The Thunder are off a win versus Washington yesterday and scored 121 points in that game. OKC has been a little "hit or miss" in terms of their offensive production and their tempo. However, the red hot Suns control the tempo in this one and the Thunder are going to be forced to pick up the pace if they want to keep up. As a result, look for plenty of points in this one. The Suns want to try and run the Thunder right out of the arena as Phoenix knows that Oklahoma City is in a back to back. The Suns continue to push for a playoff spot and they'll run and gun again here as a result. 10* OVER the total in Phoenix |
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08-09-20 | Blue Jackets +150 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 150 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
NBC Sports Network Rout - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #21 Sunday 10* Top Play Columbus Blue Jackets vs Toronto Maple Leafs @ 8 ET - The winner of this game takes on the Lightning. Wouldn't it be perfect if that team ended up being the Blue Jackets? The same Columbus team that swept Tampa Bay out of the first round of the playoffs last year after the Bolts had a regular season performance for the ages. I believe this is precisely what we'll see here. Yes I am aware of the injury situation with Zach Werenski and Ryan Murray of the Jackets but I am pulling the trigger on a huge bounce back performance from Columbus here. After the unreal loss to Maple Leafs Friday (Blue Jackets were up 3-0 with 6 minutes to go), Columbus will be right back to work here. Coach Tortorella would have it no other way and you're going to see one of the most physical and gritty performances from a wounded dog then you'll ever see in an NHL post-season. I just don't see the Blue Jackets being denied in this bounce back spot after the Maple Leafs miracle win on Friday night. To me the Jackets are the better playoff-built hockey team in this series. I know Toronto is very talented but I like the grit of this Blue Jackets team and feel we've got tremendous line value here with them as a sizable dog in a series where no team has managed to win back to back games. Look for that trend to continue here. 10* COLUMBUS |
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08-09-20 | 76ers +3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #731 Sunday 10* Top Play Philadelphia 76ers (+) vs Portland Trail Blazers @ 6:35 ET - As I suspected the 76ers, whom have won 3 straight games SU but had not been covering, finally got their first cover in their most recent game. They played an Orlando team desperate for wins and it did not matter. With Al Horford back in the starting lineup because of Ben Simmons likely being out for the year, the Sixers played loose and relaxed and got the win. Look for a similar result here. Portland is desperate for wins and will be a popular choice here but a lot of pressure is on them to win and they are in a back to back spot. They totally blew their game against the Clippers and LA didn't even play Kawhi Leonard as he was rested. That was inexcusable on the part of the Blazers and now they are in a back to back spot and facing a rested 76ers team that has nothing to lose and is playing winning basketball and I look for them to make it 4 straight SU wins but will gladly grab the points being offered. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-09-20 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #973 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in LA Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants @ 4:10 ET - The Giants Kevin Gausman went 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA. The hope for him was that a change of scenery would get him going here in San Francisco. However, though he piled up strikeouts in his first two starts he also makes too many mistake pitches. He also faced the Dodgers out of the pen two weeks ago and that won't help him here as it didn't go well and now Los Angeles will be seeing him again in a rather short span of time and plus with the Dodgers off a tight loss yesterday in which they didn't hit well, you can bet their lineup will be dialed in for a much better performance at the plate in this one. Also, it is a day game at Dodger Stadium and the ball does carry better here in day games than night games. Walker Buehler is familiar with that and has struggled more in day games than night games so far in his young career. Also, he's scuffling a bit early this season as he is still trying to round into form. Make no mistake he is ultra talented but his command is a little off and that is why he is giving up too many homers early on. We get a low total because he is on the mound for this one and this has led to good value on the over and so I am raising this one to my highest level. 10* OVER the total in LA Dodgers |
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08-08-20 | Braves v. Phillies -105 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #908 Saturday 10* Top Play Philadelphia Phillies Money Line (-) vs Atlanta Braves @ 6:05 ET - As mentioned here in my write-up yesterday (but the game was rained out), the Phillies lineup has been stronger than expected considering the layoff (covid-19) they've endured early this season. Philadelphia should enjoy plenty of success tonight at the plate against the Braves Kyle Wright. Yes, Wright's 2nd start was better than his first but that's not saying much. Wright's first start was very ugly and then in his 2nd start he was fortunate to work out of multiple jams. He is a highly regarded prospect but faces a big challenge with the hitters the Phillies have in their lineup. As for Philadelphia, they start Jake Arrieta here. Since coming to the Phillies from the Cubs in 2018, Arrieta has proven better at home than on the road and also better in evening starts than day games. Of course this is an evening game at Citizens Bank Park and I like the odds of Arrieta, a hard-fighting old-school gamer, to come up big in this key divisional battle for the Phillies. He seemed to get stronger as his start went on in his first outing this season and that was against a Yankees lineup that is arguably the most potent in all of baseball. Arrieta was getting plenty of swings and misses later in his start and really seemed to find good command of "his stuff" in the latter stages. Look for him to carry that momentum right into this start and the Phillies pen has plenty of fresh arms with all the extra time Philly has had off early this season and even so far this week too. 10* PHILADELPHIA |
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08-08-20 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche -115 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach NHL Rotation #2 Saturday 10* Top Play Colorado Avalanche Money Line (-) vs Vegas Golden Knights @ 3 ET - The Avalanche are the best team in the NHL right now. They are healthier than they have been in a long, long time and it is amazing that MacKinnon, Landeskog, and Rantanen haven't scored yet in the first two round robin games and yet the Avs still have looked so good in winning the two games by a combined score of 6 to 1. In the regular season Colorado beat the Golden Knights by a combined score of 13 to 4 in their two meetings and those two games were at Vegas no less! Now these teams meet on neutral ice and the #1 seed for the upcoming NHL playoffs is on the line. I don't see the Avalanche being denied. They are the much better team. Yes, Vegas has also gone 2-0 in this round robin but they had a miracle rally against Dallas and then played a St Louis team that seemed surprisingly uninspired hockey. The Golden Knights, even with Blues seeming a bit sluggish, still had to rally from an early 2-0 hole and later still trailed 4-3 going to the 3rd period. Keep in mind they trailed the Stars by a count of 3-1 with about 10 minutes to go in that game before their miracle rally. The Vegas goaltending is suspect with Fleury struggling and Lehner now playing with his 4th club in 3 seasons! Lehner will get the start here and seems to have supplanted Fleury. The Avs have allowed just 1 goal so far in 2 games while the Golden Knights have allowed 7. Also, as shown in the regular season, the Avalanche have shown they pose some match-up problems for Vegas! 10* COLORADO |
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08-08-20 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 232 | Top | 122-117 | Win | 100 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #713 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Portland Trail Blazers vs Los Angeles Clippers @ 1:05 ET - Both teams off high-scoring wins and are shooting the ball extremely well. Portland off a particularly red hot shooting performance from beyond the arc. The Trail Blazers, not including OT, have scored 124 points or more in 3 of their 4 games in the bubble. They'll be helped by the fact that the Clippers Patrick Beverley (awarded twice to the All-Defensive team in his NBA career) is expected to miss a 2nd straight games. LA, after that fierce battle with the Lakers in their first game within the bubble, has averaged 122.3 points per game since then. You can see why I am forecasting this game to get into the 240's per the above. 10* OVER the total in Portland |
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08-07-20 | Oilers -129 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Rotation #59 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Oilers Money Line (-) vs Chicago Blackhawks @ 6:45 ET - The Oilers lost on a very late goal in Game 3. It was no fault of the goalie on that play but one thing for certain is that neither team has been particularly sharp between the pipes as goals continue piling up through this series. I know that the Blackhawks have played very well in this series and have Edmonton on the edge of elimination. However, I just don't see it happening. After the Oilers got off the initial shock of an ugly 1st period stretch in Game 1 of this series, they have played well for long stretches and I like the coaching edge here in a crucial game as well. Edmonton is coached by Dave Tippett and Chicago is coached by Jeremy Colliton. Note that Tippett was playing in the NHL before Colliton was even born. Yes he is 24 years his senior and I look for Tippett to rally the troops here for the Oilers. Teams off a loss in this post-season have responded well for the most part with the lone exception being a flat Rangers team that was ousted by a Hurricanes team that was firing on all cylinders. So not including the Canes series or the round robin games, we're talking about only the 5-game series here, teams off a loss are 12-3 so far. That is an 80% cash in rate and I am more than willing to lay the fair price (-130 range) here with a desperate, more talented, and better coached Oilers team. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-07-20 | Thunder v. Grizzlies OVER 222 | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #703 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder @ 4:05 ET - This total has dropped from its opener and has added value to the over in this spot. The Thunder are off a fantastic effort against the Lakers and allowed 86 points in that win. Usually after a big win like that a team comes out and allows a bunch of points in their very next game. That plays right into our hands in terms of this play on Friday. Memphis is off a loss to Utah and needs to respond big as the losses keep piling up for them as they cling to the #8 seed. The problem for the Grizzlies though is they have been giving up plenty of points and seem incapable of getting key stops when they need to. Look for them to have another subpar game on the defensive end and note that the Thunder allowed 121 points to the Nuggets in their game immediately prior to the win over LeBron James and company. Look for plenty of points in this one! 10* OVER the total in Memphis |
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08-06-20 | Maple Leafs v. Blue Jackets +135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 135 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
NHL 10* Columbus Blue Jackets Money Line +135 - The Maple Leafs loss of defenseman Jake Muzzin for the remainder of this series is a big loss. He is arguably their best blue liner and is a playoff-tested veteran. His absence will be felt and, though I have been impressed with Leafs goalie Anderson and how well he has played I am wondering when the cracks will start to show and losing Muzzin could be the beginning of it. The Blue Jackets aren't happy with the Game 2 result but have to be happy being tied 1-1 heading into this Game 3 and the fact that the games have been tight and low-scoring. That plays right into the hands of Columbus. Also, they have a big experience factor edge in coaching with Tortorella over Keefe. Keep in mind the Leafs were red hot when Keefe first took over for the fired Babcock early this season but they then faded the rest of the season. I am still not sold on this Toronto team. They are very talented and played a great game two but they are known for playoff failures and I expect a strong bounce back from a gritty Blue Jackets team that swept the league-best Lightning out of the post-season last year. Coach Torts and this Jackets team know a thing or two about playoff hockey and that experience edge as well as the Muzzin factor for this one means that this is way too much underdog value to pass up on. Great situation here with the Blue Jackets also picking up a little edge with being the designated home team for this one. Keep in mind that means they can match personnel the way they want because they get the "last change edge" on line changes. 10* COLUMBUS |
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08-06-20 | Reds v. Indians OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #909 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Cleveland Indians vs Cincinnati Reds @ 6:10 ET - Being a contrarian has served me very well through the years and, of course, with these teams both struggling at the plate so far this season this one is contrarian all the way. But when the timing is right, being a contrarian is very rewarding. This looks like one of this spots and I am going over the total of 7.5 runs. Both teams induced 6 walks yesterday and I like seeing that kind of patience at the plate. The Reds start Luis Castillo here and he gave up 5 runs to the Tigers in his most recent start. Most of the damage was done by the bottom third of the Detroit lineup and that is not a good sign for Castillo as the Tigers are not exactly a powerhouse at the plate either. As for the Indians Carlos Carrasco, he gave up 3 homers in his most recent start but was lucky they were all solo bombs. Last season Carrasco went 2-5 with a 7.07 ERA in evening action (14 games, 5 starts). Both teams had base running mistakes and hit into double plays that cost them yesterday as well. Look for a result here that will surprise many and I forecast this game will be over the low total by the middle innings. 10* OVER the total in Cleveland |
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08-06-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 222 | Top | 116-130 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #777 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat @ 4:05 ET - Off an embarrassing loss as a nearly 20 point favorite against the Nets, the Bucks respond in a big way here. Milwaukee also is getting a couple players back too for this one. The Bucks have been one of the faster paced teams in the NBA in the bubble and that will lead to plenty of points in this one. Milwaukee also has a respectable bench which is one of the tops in the NBA. The way I see this game playing out is the Bucks coming out with plenty of tempo combined with better offensive efficiency than we've been seeing from them. They are healthier, they are going to play their starters more, and they're looking for a big-game effort from everyone. The Heat will be forced to "run and gun" to keep up with them as the Bucks force the tempo. The result should be a big Bucks win that lands close to the number ATS but, in my opinion, crushes the total and flies over. That is why I am going with a big game play here on this total. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |
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08-05-20 | Raptors v. Magic OVER 221.5 | Top | 109-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #771 Wednesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors @ 8:05 ET - This total, as of early game day morning, has already made a big downward move from 224.5 to 221.5 in early action on the game. I look for the Magic defense to struggle in a back to back situation and they have allowed an average of 118 points per game in their first three games. But even though they continue to give up piles of points, Orlando is in a battle for a playoff spot and they'll continue to battle hard in that regard. That means they'll have to turn to the offensive end to try and get an upset win here and the Magic are averaging 123 points per game in their first 3 games back. Though the Raptors, one of the top teams in the East, have been involved in a pair of lower-scoring games since the reboot I look for a different story here. The first two games for Toronto were against the Lakers and the Heat and, as a result, were more intense defensive-minded battles. The Raptors have dominated the series with the Magic and could easily overlook them here as a result. The point is a little less defensive intensity and a free-flowing game is likely. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the early line move here but that is with good reason as explained above. 10* OVER the total in Orlando |
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08-05-20 | Red Sox v. Rays -132 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -132 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #954 Wednesday 10* Top Play Tampa Bay Rays Money Line (-) vs Boston Red Sox @ 6:40 ET - The Rays got back on track with a 5-1 win over the Red Sox yesterday. The "home team theme" in Rays games continued as they are 5-1 at home and if you just played the home team in all Tampa Bay games so far this season you are 10-1. I look for this trend to continue Wednesday and will take advantage of the big downward line move on this one. The line went from as high as nearly 180 to now as low as nearly 130 as of early Wednesday morning. I am aware of Margot being put on the bereavement list for the Rays but he wasn't hitting anyway. Also, Tampa got Meadows back just yesterday and he responded with a huge game for them. Things are looking up for TB right now while the slumping Red Sox have lost 4 straight games. Boston's Martin Perez hates Tropicana Field. In 5 appearances there, including 4 starts, he is 1-3 with an 8.39 ERA. As for the Rays Ryan Yarbrough, he is off to a fantastic start this season with a 1.54 ERA and with going at least 5 innings in each start. Also, the Rays have one of the best bullpens in baseball behind him. It all should lead to another home win here. I don't often lay prices but this one offers tremendous line value given the situation as well as the line move. 10* TAMPA BAY |
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08-05-20 | Avalanche -125 v. Stars | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
NHL 10* Colorado -125 - The Stars are off the type of loss that is very tough to bounce back from. Dallas just allowed a very late lead against Vegas to slip away and a 3-1 edge turned into a 5-3 defeat in an inexcusable turn of events. The Stars have had the Avs number and that showed in the regular season meetings between these teams. But Colorado is healthy and hungry and has their eye on earning the #1 seed through this round-robin event after knocking off the defending Stanley Cup Champion Blues in the opener. Colorado didn't even get much production on offense from their top guys and yet still beat St Louis and that says a lot about just how good this Avalanche team is. I look for much more from them in this game Wednesday as they are so hungry for the #1 seed and they want to prove to Dallas that they can top them in case these teams do meet up again in the post-season. I respect the Stars but the situational edges go to the Avs here and that is why this game is priced the way it is. Lay it! 10* COLORADO |
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08-04-20 | Giants v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #921 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants @ 8:40 ET - Being a contrarian is a key to long-term success in this industry. The odds makers are pretty sharp so when you see a line move dramatically from an opener it pays to pay attention. This is one of those cases where everything lines up and I love fading the line move. This total opened up at a 13 and has moved all the way down to an 11.5 in morning trading activity. Of course that is because German Marquez has had two great starts to open up the season and the fact is that he is a very good pitcher for sure. But he pitches his home games at Coors Field! Lets not forget that! His first two starts were on the road. Last season at home he got hit at a .317 clip and had a 6.26 ERA. The prior season Marquez had a 4.74 ERA and got hit at a .284 clip. In other words, it is no fluke as his numbers each of the past two seasons reflect the strong home/road dichotomy that so many Rockies pitchers have. Making things now even tougher on pitchers at Coors Field is that they have to also face a designated hitter now instead of a pitcher at the plate. Now lets talk about Giants starter Kevin Gausman. The veteran right-hander is off a 3-9 season that saw him compile a 5.72 ERA. In his first two appearances as a Giant (one start) he has been rocked at a .343 clip by opposing hitters. Now he'll get to enjoy Coors Field on top of all this! In other words, this one likely to get ugly in a hurry as both lineups enjoy big days! 10* OVER the total in Colorado |
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08-04-20 | Flames v. Jets +133 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Rickenbach NHL Rotation #36 Tuesday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Jets Money Line (+) vs Calgary Flames @ 6:45 ET - I successfully used the Jets in Game 2 under the theory of "wounded dog bites the hardest" and that paid off then and I feel it will again in Game 3. Yes the Jets are hurting with the injury issues for Laine and Scheifele but they are a determined bunch and using the Tkachuck / Scheifele incident as a motivating factor for the rest of this series is going to carry them. Though it took a late goal to put away the Flames in Game 2 it never should have come to that. Both the Calgary goals were a bit fluky. First off a horrific turnover where the Jets suddenly (and mistakenly) let up and you could just see it that something stupid/bad was about to happen. Then the other Flames goal went in off a redirect off a Jets players skate! As for the Jets goals the 1st and 3rd were beauties and the 2nd one was a gritty goal in front where hard work right in front of the goalie and being willing to take a shot off yourself and then score off it was key. I have really liked the way the Jets Hellebuyck has been playing and neither goal was his fault in game two. That said, the Jets are offering superb underdog value and this highly motivated bunch gets it done in game 3 as a sizable dog again. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-04-20 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 229 | Top | 119-116 | Win | 100 | 3 h 47 m | Show |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach NBA Rotation #751 Tuesday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Milwaukee Bucks vs Brooklyn Nets @ 1:35 ET - Don't look for the Bucks to take their foot off the gas in this one. Yes, they'll be resting guys late with a huge lead but their bench will be just fine against the Nets. That said, I look for a very high-scoring game here as the Bucks take out their frustration on an over-matched Nets team. Milwaukee lost a tight one to the Rockets on Sunday because they scored just 4 points over the final 3 minutes of the game. Brooklyn is off a key win over Washington that same day and that built confidence in the offensive end. Yes it was only the Wizards but just getting a W and having a successful effort and scoring 118 points means something. Now the Bucks will impose their will on the Nets and then after establishing a huge lead this game turns into a free-flowing high-scoring run and gun affair as the Bucks bench players get to enjoy their time on the floor too against an out-classed Brooklyn team in this one. 10* OVER the total in Milwaukee |