Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-06-21 | Bulls v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 118-92 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Given what transpired last night, I’m a little shocked the Magic opened as the underdogs here. It was a much needed 123-119 win for the home team on Friday and I backed them as underdogs. They got a career-best 43 points from Nikola Vucevic, who also had 19 rebounds. It was the just the 4th 40-15 game EVER by a Magic player and the first since 2017. I’m coming right back with Magic again tonight. My read on this matchup obviously hasn’t changed in the last 24 hours, so I’m going to recycle a good bit of yday’s anaylsis. The key for me is that Chicago just shouldn’t be favored on the road. They are bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency and now 0-2 ATS in the road chalk role this season. Yesterday marked their second loss in a row and fifth in the last six games. They are now giving up 118.8 PPG on the road, just a terrible number. Only Golden State and Brooklyn allow a higher average away from home. Unlike those two teams, the Bulls don’t have the necessary firepower to overcome the defensive deficiencies. Each of the last two games have seen the Bulls fall into a double digit hole. They trailed the Knicks by 17 after just one quarter Wednesday night, a game in which they ended up shooting 6 of 36 from three-point range. Last night they were behind by 14 in the fourth quarter. So the game was not “really” as close as the final score seemed to indicate. Chicago is just 1-4 SU on the second night of a back to back. Orlando is actually 2-0 SU/ATS coming off a SU win as a dog. Look for the home team to make it two in a row Saturday night. 10* Orlando |
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02-06-21 | St Bonaventure v. St. Louis -3 | Top | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* Saint Louis (2:00 ET): Perhaps no team in the entire COUNTRY has been more adversely affected by COVID-19 than the Saint Louis Billikens. The preseason favorites to win the Atlantic 10 were in the top 25 of my own power ratings when their season was paused around Christmas time. Unfortunately, the Billikens have gone 0-2 SU since returning to the court, losing outright to Dayton and La Salle over the L10 days. They’ve gotten only 10 games in all season and now must face arguably the hottest team in the A-10, St. Bonaventure, who has won seven in a row. I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on Saint Louis. While adjustments obviously needed to be made by the linesmakers in the wake of the B2B upsets, this looks like a classic “overadjustment” to me. The Billikens had just four days of practice after not playing for 33 days when they took on Dayton. Then they had a game vs. Richmond postponed just minutes before the scheduled tipoff. Wednesday’s loss at La Salle was a genuine shocker (the Billikens were favored by 12) as they struggled again from three-point range. That’s been the problem in the two games as they are shooting a woeful 7 of 32 from behind the arc. With more practice time and two games under their belt, you have to figure St. Louis’ shooting is destined to improve. They actually shot 51.8% overall against Dayton; it was just the three-point line that was the problem. Prior to the pause, this has been an excellent three-point shooting team (still 37.4% for the season). At the same time, the Bonnies aren’t going to shoot 61.4% again like they did vs George Mason (at home) last week. The A-10 leaders have been beating up on the bottom of the league while St. Louis has been out of the picture. The Bonnies’ road record could easily be 1-3 SU. 10* Saint Louis |
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02-05-21 | Seattle University -3 v. Dixie State | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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02-05-21 | California Baptist +10.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
8* Cal Baptist (9:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned to see this line so high. My own power ratings suggest a much tighter spread is appropriate. The game will take place in Las Cruces, the first time NMSU has gotten to play on their home floor since COVID restrictions were lifted in the state. But home court advantage is still not enough to justify the Aggies laying so many points. They have just six games under their belt this season and only three since the New Year. They were swept last weekend at Grand Canyon. Cal Baptist is coming off a disheartening home loss to Dixie State their last time out. The Lancers were 9.5-point favorites for that one, but fell 79-75 as 9.5-point chalk. That loss snapped a 5-game win streak. The Lancers led by as many as 7 points in the second half, so it’s a game they could have won. While they’ve yet to win on the road this season (0-3), two of three losses have come by single digits. One was against USC in the season opener. Another was by only four points at Utah Valley State. They are 15-7 ATS L22 as an underdog. New Mexico State has not beaten a single D-I foe this season, so I have no unearthly idea why they’d be favored by so many points here. Their three wins have come against Western New Mexico, Benedictine (AZ) and Arizona Christian. They are 0-3 otherwise, though all those games were on the road. Still, the Aggies scored just 53 points in their last game and can’t possibly be trusted to cover a spread like this. They shot just 36.5% from the field on Saturday and were down by as many as 17. This spread simply looks to be way off. 8* Cal Baptist |
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02-05-21 | Bulls v. Magic +2 | Top | 119-123 | Win | 100 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): This has been a very frustrating season for the Magic thus far. They actually have the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference and are just 4-13 SU in non-division games. This is a non-division game and they come in having lost four in a row overall and three straight at home. Injuries have been a problem with the latest being forward Aaron Gordon’s ankle, which will keep him out at least a month. The Magic are already without Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac for the rest of the season. Chicago has been a “tough out” for much of the season so far, a little surprising, but has also not played well of late. They come into tonight’s game having lost four of five. This will be the first of two in a row in Orlando for the Bulls, who are also dealing with injuries to Otto Porter and Wendell Carter (neither will play tonight). The Bulls have been “road warriors” so far this season with an 8-2 ATS record away from home, however, this will be just the second time they’ve been favored. The only other time Chicago has been favored away from home this season was 1/15 at Oklahoma City and they lost that game 127-125, in overtime. They also just lost to the Knicks, 107-103 as home favorites, Wednesday night. They fell behind by 17 after the first quarter and shot 6 of 36 from 3-point range. As bad as Orlando has looked recently, I don’t think Chicago should be laying points on the road to anyone as they are still bottom five in the league in defensive efficiency. This is a game the Magic really need to win. 10* Orlando |
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02-04-21 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -1 | Top | 115-103 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Memphis (9:05 ET): These have been two of the league’s hotter teams recently. However, both are off a SU loss. The Grizzlies had their seven-game win streak come to an end Tuesday night in Indiana as they were beaten pretty emphatically, 134-116. It was the second night of a back to back where they were coming off a 31-point win in San Antonio. The Rockets had their six-game win streak end last night in Oklahoma City as they got beat 104-87. Now they are in the second night of a back to back, a situation they’ve somehow managed to be in just one other time all season. Memphis is currently tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now with a 9-7 SU record. After opening 0-5 at home, they’ve now won three straight here, beating the Nets, Sixers and Suns, which is an impressive list of teams. This is a top five team in the league in defensive efficiency and they’ve done well coming off a DD loss this season, going 3-1 ATS in that spot. As they know from Tuesday, being rested can be a significant edge when your opponent isn’t and that’s a major reason we’re backing the Grizz in this one. Houston didn’t have John Wall in the lineup last night, tonight they’ll be without Victor Oladipo. This is part of the “load management” strategy as both are still recovering from injuries. As mentioned above, the Rockets scored just 87 points last night, a far cry from the “James Harden days” and what they’d done Monday vs. Thunder (scored 136). I think it’s pretty remarkable that this is just the second time the Rockets are in the second night of a back to back this season. It’s also their third road game in four nights and fourth in the last six. They are 2-7 ATS L9 on no rest and 2-11 ATS L13 off a DD loss. 10* Memphis |
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02-04-21 | Belmont v. Eastern Illinois +14.5 | Top | 89-61 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Eastern Illinois (8:30 ET): Yes, I’m going to fade Belmont again. This will be the third straight time as the Bruins’ unbeaten run through the OVC has come very close to ending each of their last two times out. I cashed both Austin Peay and Murray State in the last week vs. Belmont, games the Bruins easily could have lost outright. They beat Austin Peay by five and Murray State by one. Now they are laying big points to Tony Romo’s alma mater in what is their third straight road game. While you should take the points, this third OVC play in this report has the potential to be a major upset. Remember that I’ve already cashed Miami over Duke and East Carolina over Houston this week, both were double digit dogs that took the game outright. Belmont (12-0 vs OVC) has the most conference wins without a loss in the country and is certainly “due” to drop a game after the narrow escapes we’ve seen recently. They trailed at the half in each of those L2 games. Eastern Illinois ended a LONG losing streak (8 games) with a 70-61 win over SIU Edwardsville on Tuesday. Five of those eight losses came as a favorite, so the Panthers have definitely underachieved this year. They were actually 0-8 ATS in those eight SU losses! But this is the most points they’ll get all season (in conference play) and it’s at home. Talk about motivation - they’ve lost eight straight times to Belmont. But six of those were on the road. This is a team that doesn’t get blown out often. 8* Eastern Illinois |
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02-04-21 | Austin Peay +2.5 v. Eastern Kentucky | Top | 94-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Like I said in the Murray State writeup, I’m in love with this OVC card tonight! In addition to cashing Murray State against Belmont as my 10* Game of the Month on Saturday, Austin Peay also cashed a winning ticket (for me) at Belmont’s expense recently. They too played the Bruins right down to the wire, only to come up just short of ending Belmont’s unbeaten OVC run. That game, which was on Thursday, saw the Governors lose by only five points. They’ve since beaten Tennessee State and SIU Edwardsville both by 15. Tonight, the Governors are at Eastern Kentucky, who is the second place team in the OVC. EKU is 14-2 overall and won nine straight. They’re also a perfect 8-0 SU at home. But shades of Morehead State (who I’m also fading tonight), the Colonials have really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. Another similarity to that Morehead State fade is that this is a revenge game. Austin Peay lost the first time, by five at home, as a 4.5-point favorite. Eastern Kentucky was actually a dog at Jacksonville State over the weekend, which should tell you what the oddsmakers really think of them. They won, but by only four points, their third win by five or less in the past six games. Based on the early line movement, it certainly appears as if Austin Peay is getting some love from sharp bettors and they’ll get my love as well considering they are 3-1 ATS as a dog. EKU is due to lose. 8* Austin Peay |
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02-04-21 | Murray State -2.5 v. Morehead State | Top | 56-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Murray State (7:00 ET): I’m in LOVE with the Ohio Valley Conference slate tonight! All three plays in this report come from the OVC, which I’ve been paying close attention to in recent weeks. Just last Saturday, Murray State was my 10* NCAAB Game of the Month as they covered the spread vs. unbeaten (in conference play) Belmont. Just 48 hours later, the Racers shook off that one-point loss by downing SE Missouri State 77-60 on the road. While this is now their third game in less than a week, we are getting a TON of value considering Murray State was a 13-point favorite when they hosted Morehead State earlier this season. Now that first meeting is something Murray State would like to forget as they lost outright as 13-point chalk, 61-56. It was a dreadful shooting night for both teams, but what was truly remarkable is the Racers shooting just 13 of 31 on two-point attempts! Since that loss, the offense has gotten back on track. They’ve scored at least 71 in six straight games and are now 3-0 ATS in the last three. Morehead State has been a covering machine with seven straight ATS victories. They’ve also won nine in a row straight up. The OVC is shaping up to be a three-team race with them and Eastern Kentucky trying to track down Belmont. But, as is evident by this spread, the standings aren’t really representative of the power rankings. Other than the win over Murray State, Morehead has really been beating up on the bottom of the OVC. If Murray State was a 13-point favorite the first time around, they should be favored by a lot more in the rematch. Oddsmakers have overadjusted. 8* Murray State |
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02-03-21 | LSU +8.5 v. Alabama | Top | 60-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
8* LSU (7:00 ET): This is a giant revenge game for the Bayou Bengals, who lost by 30 (at home!) to Alabama last month. As you can guess from the score (105-75), nothing went right for them that night in Baton Rouge. The tailspin began right away with Alabama opening the game on a 23-4 run. The margin grew to 31 before halftime and never dropped below 26 in the 2H. The Crimson Tide set a SEC record in that game with 23 made three-pointers. Quite obviously, it can’t possibly be THAT ugly for LSU tonight. Despite what happened to them in the first meeting, LSU is a good team. They come in at 11-5 SU and could have beaten #13 Texas Tech on Saturday. They lost that game by only five points and had a seven-point lead with just over a minute to go. It was the Tigers’ third loss in four games, which goes back to the debacle vs. Bama, so it’s getting to be “desperation time” for Will Wade’s team. Considering they’ve only been beaten twice by more than five points this year, I’ll be taking the points. Alabama is also off a loss in the Big 12-SEC Challenge, theirs coming here in Tuscaloosa against an Oklahoma team that was playing without two starters, one of which was Austin Reaves (leading scorer). That snapped a 10-game win streak for the Tide, who are still unbeaten in SEC games (9-0 SU). Only two other teams in the country (Baylor, Belmont) are 9-0 or better in conference play and I can’t see the Tide running the table in the SEC. LSU’s top four scorers were all held below their season averages (in points) the first time around. This time they make a game of it. 8* LSU |
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02-03-21 | Kentucky +5 v. Missouri | Top | 70-75 | Push | 0 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (7:00 ET): UK missed its opportunity to face #6 Texas over the weekend, which may have been for the best seeing as how I don’t think that’s a game they would have won. COVID-19 not only cancelled the Texas game, but pushed this one vs. Missouri back a day. This has obviously not been a typical season in Lexington as the Wildcats are just 5-10 SU and barring some unforeseen run in the SEC Tournament, they will NOT be a participant in March Madness. However, I do see them playing “spoiler” in this spot. Missouri is the team that my power rankings differ from the pollsters the most on. The Tigers come into this game ranked #16 in the country, but my power ratings have them just inside the Top 40. The KenPom ratings, which I think are very useful, agree with me. Cuonzo Martin’s team really pulled a “rabbit out of the hat” on Saturday, coming back from a late 12-point deficit to beat TCU in overtime, 102-98. They never came close to covering the 10-point spread though. This is the first of two big games in Columbia this week as Mizzou will also host Alabama on Saturday. Might they actually look past UK then? Bottom line is I expect the Tigers to start dropping some games. They are 2-6 ATS after allowing 80+ points and 0-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Kentucky is 3-0 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 6 points. The last time we saw Coach Cal, his team was leading at Alabama with less than five minutes remaining. They imploded down the stretch and failed to cover the 7-point spread, but I think they get the money here. Take the points. 8* Kentucky |
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02-03-21 | Houston v. East Carolina +16.5 | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
8* East Carolina (6:00 ET): #5 Houston has undoubtedly been red hot as of late. They went 8-0 in January with the last six wins all coming by 17 points or greater. They’ve covered four straight times. Sunday saw them decimate SMU, 70-48, as a 9.5-point home favorite. You’ll notice that 17-point benchmark is basically what the oddsmakers are looking for tonight as the Cougars, now ranked #5 in the country, travel to face East Carolina. As good a team as this is, it’s obviously not easy to keep winning games by such a large margin. So I’ll be taking the points in this one. East Carolina’s January went a lot differently than Houston’s. The Pirates were 0-5 SU/ATS last month while having to deal with a two-week pause due to COVID. Their last win came all the way back on December 22nd against Tulane. Conference play has gone much differently than non-conference play did for ECU. While they’ve beaten all six non-conf opponents this year, they are just 1-6 SU vs. the rest of the American. However, it should be pointed out that four of the five losses in January were by single digits. They were tied 65-65 with Tulsa (only team to beat Houston this year) here on Saturday, only to get caught on the wrong end of a 12-3 run to end the game. It’s not as if I expect East Carolina to win this game. But I do think they’ll keep it closer than what the oddsmakers are thinking. The Pirates are a solid 6-3 SU at home this season with just one bad loss (to Memphis). Houston doesn’t play for another week after this game, so they may be looking forward to the break and not be fully focused. They are probably due for an “off-game” anyway. They are 0-5 ATS the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they allowed less than 50 points. East Carolina has covered five straight home games vs. teams with a winning road record. 8* East Carolina |
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02-02-21 | Illinois v. Indiana +2.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:00 ET): Illinois is back where it “belongs,” ranked #12 in the country. Truthfully, my power ratings say they should be ranked even higher. But tonight they happen to be facing a team that I feel is also underrated by the pollsters, that being Indiana. With a 9-7 SU record, IU isn’t “wowing” anyone right now. But consider that they will come into this game well-rested (haven’t played in over a week!) and also won by 12 at Iowa last month. That’s more impressive than the Fighting Illini beating the Hawkeyes by just five points at home last Friday. You can probably guess the reason for Indiana’s sabbatical from the court. They were supposed to face #4 Michigan on Saturday, but the Wolverines had COVID issues. Avoiding a trip to face a top four opponent before playing this game is a big break for the Hoosiers. Now they’ve actually lost their last two games here in Bloomington (both as favorites), but tonight marks the 1st time they’ve been a home dog all season. They’ve gone 4-1 ATS when getting points on the road, so you’ve gotta like their chances of pulling this one out, even if Galloway and Franklin can’t go. This is a revenge game as well. The Hoosiers lost in Champaign-Urbana back on December 26th by a score of 69-60. That was actually the one time they failed to cover when getting points (were +6.5). They shot poorly and were outrebounded 40-28. Generally, neither shooting nor rebounding have been problems for the Hoosiers. That win over Iowa on Friday was Illinois’ first over a team currently in the Top 25. Indiana may not be ranked, but my power ratings call them a top 25 team in the country. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
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02-02-21 | Baylor v. Texas +5.5 | Top | 83-69 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
8* Texas (7:00 ET): If there ever was a time for #2 Baylor (16-0 SU) to drop a game, it would be here in Austin. The Bears just played a tough opponent (Auburn) Saturday night while Texas had the weekend off. The Longhorns were going to face Kentucky, but COVID took care of that matchup (issue was obviously on the UK side). So now the Longhorns come in well-rested for their biggest game of the season and you know motivation will be through the roof. They are 4-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Texas is just seven points away from being unbeaten itself. That’s the total number of points their three losses have been by with none of the margins being greater than four. The last time they took the court was exactly one week ago and they fell 80-79 to red-hot Oklahoma here in Austin. That they were able to almost win despite not having HC Shaka Smart, two starters and one key reserve (all out due to COVID) was pretty impressive. For the final possession, the Longhorns had just five scholarship players available as three more guys fouled out during the course of the game! Everyone, including Smart, is expected to be back tonight. Yes, I’m fully aware of how good Baylor is. But Texas is a top 10 team playing at home. Not only were there extenuating factors working against them in the loss to OU, but in a 79-77 loss to Texas Tech on 1/13, they blew a 10-point halftime lead. They led that game most of the way. It’s pretty shocking that all three of the Longhorns losses have occurred at home, but again those were all by razor thin margins and to teams ranked in the Top 15. Tonight is the most points they’ll get in any game all season. It’s a good value. They are rested. They easily could be undefeated. They can beat Baylor. Take the points. 8* Texas |
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02-02-21 | Butler +4 v. Marquette | Top | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
8* Butler (5:00 ET): Both Butler and Marquette have been pretty cold of late. Butler has lost its last two games and four of its last six. Marquette has lost three in a row and seven of 10 . Even worse is that the Golden Eagles are 1-9 ATS in those 10 games and 0-4 the L4. So laying points with them right now seems like a BAD idea. They are just 3-7 ATS as chalk this season. Butler couldn’t hit water from a boat in their last game as they shot just 34.3% against Xavier, 68-55 loss as two-point favorites. The Bulldogs REALLY struggled from behind the three-point arc where they missed 20 of 25 attempts. That’s well below their season average, obviously. Three things to keep in mind here, however. One is they’re going to shoot better tonight. Two, they own a win over Creighton. Three, Christian David and Bo Hodges are now both playing. Each made their season debut vs. Xavier and while it didn’t help there, there’s no denying the Bulldogs are now a better and deeper team. Hodgers is a transfer from East Tennessee State. Marquette is down a player, Justin Lewis, as he injured his ankle in practice Saturday. While “just” a reserve, Lewis is a key frontcourt contributor. Without Lewis, the Golden Eagles lost by two to St. John’s on Sunday. But the game was really not that close as they trailed by 15 at halftime. Butler has had one extra day off (compared to Marquette) between games and will certainly be motivated to end an 0-4 ATS run in this rivalry. Take the points. 8* Butler |
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02-01-21 | Blazers +10 v. Bucks | Top | 106-134 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): Milwaukee can still claim the East’s best point differential and efficiency rating, but they’ve lost B2B games and done so to vastly inferior opposition. As a result, they’re now third in the conference standings. Friday brought a narrow defeat at the hands of New Orleans then without rest they fell in Charlotte on Saturday. Do I think the Bucks are likely to win here at home tonight? Yes, but the number is clearly inflated based on that expectation (which I’m sure most people share) and don’t think they’ll cover the spread. Take the points. Portland is coming off a 123-122 win in Chicago where Damian Lillard scored a season-high 44 points, the last three of which came on a game-winning three-pointer. It was Lillard’s second 40+ point effort of the season and he’s averaging 34 over the team’s last eight games. The Blazers obviously need that kind of production as they’ve been playing without both CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic. But players like Gary Trent Jr have been stepping up. Trent had 18 against the Bulls and is averaging 21 the L3 games. The Blazers are just 3-3 SU their L6 games, however, two of the three losses were by just three points each. It’s rare that you can get them plus this many points. They’ve actually been better offensively on the road this season as they’re averaging 118.2 PPG. Certainly defense has been an issue, but you could say the same for Milwaukee, who has given up 113+ in five of the last six games including 131 to New Orleans and 126 to Charlotte. The Bucks are only 1-4 ATS vs. Western Conference teams this season and have lost three of those games outright. 10* Portland |
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02-01-21 | UCF +9 v. Memphis | Top | 69-96 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Central Florida (8:00 ET): Memphis seems to have gone from “underachieving” to “a little bit overrated” in a hurry. That’s due to a 4-game ATS win streak, but I think it’s important to remember what preceded that, a 7-game ATS LOSING streak. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had a LOT of close calls this season, the most recent coming last week at SMU where they lost 67-65 (but did cover as 4-point dogs). This is the most points the Tigers have had to lay in over a month and I think the spread is too high. UCF is off its own narrow defeat, theirs coming Saturday at Wichita State by a score of 93-88. As you may have guessed from the final score, that game went to overtime. It was the sixth loss in the last seven games for the Golden Knights, who certainly didn’t help themselves by turning it over 22 times against the Shockers. It was a game they led at halftime and just the second time all year they lost when scoring at least 61 points. The last two games have seen dramatic improvement on the offensive end for UCF and I’m expecting a better showing than the oddsmakers are for tonight’s game. A couple weeks ago, I laid a short number with Memphis here at home and they blew out Wichita State 72-52. But I’ve seen too many close games from the Tigers to want to lay this many points. Seven of their last nine games have been decided by seven points or less. Four of those have been SU losses. I know UCF is a bit “offensively challenged,” but they’ve topped 70 in regulation each of the L2 games. They led Wichita State by eight with less than four minutes to go on Saturday. Meanwhile, Memphis trailed SMU by as many as 16 on Thursday. 10* Central Florida |
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02-01-21 | Duke v. Miami-FL +11 | Top | 75-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): It has NOT been a good run for Miami of late as they’ve dropped four in a row - both SU and ATS. Short-handed, they lost 66-54 at Wake Forest on Saturday, which was the second time in the last three games they lost as a favorite. Things will not be any easier tonight when they host a suddenly surging Duke team that’s won B2B games. But because the Blue Devils are among the most “public sides” in the sport, we’re able to get a good number in this nationally televised contest and I’m taking the points as this number has simply grown too large. Duke’s B2B wins have come against Georgia Tech and Clemson. Against the former, they were tied with just 2:33 remaining before pulling away via the charity stripe. The Clemson win on Saturday may have been the best the Blue Devils have looked all season. They won 79-53 after jumping out to a big lead and never looking back. But both of these recent wins were in Durham. The Blue Devils still have zero wins this season against the Top 25 and are 1-3 SU on the road. I think the idea of them being ranked is somewhat ludicrous. Yes, Miami is really short-handed right now and has had horrible luck against Duke in recent years. But I expect Jim Larranaga’s team to be “up” for this one. I mentioned earlier that the Hurricanes have lost four straight. Well, three of those losses were on the road. Duke is still a young team and I’ve been on the record calling them “overrated” even before the loss to Michigan State back in November. I just don’t think this should be a double digit spread. 8* Miami FL |
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02-01-21 | Georgia Tech +4.5 v. Louisville | Top | 58-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
8* Georgia Tech (2:00 ET): Louisville is ranked #25 in the country as of this writing, but the Cardinals are likely to drop out of the new poll (when it comes out later today) due to losing 54-50 at Clemson last week. That was the third loss they’ve suffered over the course of the previous four games, a stretch which includes their lone home loss of 2020-21, 78-65 at the hands of Florida State. They did defeat Duke here last Saturday, but by just five points. That’s one of three Cardinals’ wins by five points or less since Christmas, the difference between a 6-3 record in their L9 games and a much more mediocre mark. Georgia Tech just beat Florida State, albeit in Atlanta, 76-65 on Saturday. That was the Yellow Jackets’ sixth win in the last eight games and something to keep in mind is that both losses are games they easily could have won. GT led Virginia by as many as 11 points on 1/23 before losing 64-62 in overtime. The next game saw them in front of Duke late, but they lost that one (also on the road), 75-68. Had the Jackets held on in either game, we might be talking about them replacing L’ville in the Top 25 today. Beating a team like Florida State is not easy and GT did it by holding the Seminoles to their lowest point total of the season. The Yellow Jackets also come in averaging 77.7 PPG themselves. They shot 50% from the field in the second half Saturday. Alongside FSU, Georgia Tech is top two in the ACC in both three-point shooting and overall field goal percentage. Considering that L’ville only made 31.6% of its shot attempts against Clemson, you’ve got to like the Yellow Jackets’ chances defensively in this one, especially considering they just held the ACC’s #1 scoring team to almost 15 pts below its season average. Georgia Tech is 5-2 ATS as a dog this season, so I’ll gladly take the points here. 8* Ga Tech |
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01-31-21 | Nets v. Wizards +9 | Top | 146-149 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:00 ET): The Wizards have not won since returning to the court seven days ago. They didn’t play for nearly two weeks and are now 0-4 since returning, both SU and ATS. Tonight will not be an easy game as they face the Nets, who of course now have James Harden among their ranks. But we’re getting a big number on the home team as Brooklyn figures to be one of the more overvalued (and public) sides moving forward. I’m taking the points here as the Wizards actually beat the Nets earlier this month. That win was in Brooklyn, before the Harden trade, on January 3rd. The Wizards won 123-122 as a seven-point dog. You can see we’re now getting more points with the Wiz AT HOME than they were getting on the road. That’s the Harden factor. Also, despite resting Kevin Durant, the Nets just put up 147 points (franchise record in regulation) on Friday, their 4th straight win. However, you should be aware that the Nets are just 2-2 SU this season following a game where they scored 130 or more points. Washington is starting to get players back from the COVID list, so expect them to play better. Bradley Beal currently leads the NBA in scoring with 34.7 PPG. He scored a season-low 26 in Friday’s loss to the Hawks and the team shot a season-worst 36.5%. Six technical fouls by the Wizards didn’t help their cause in that game either. Expect better shooting from Beal and company tonight though. When they beat Brooklyn, they only shot 41% from the field. They’ll top that number tonight. The Nets are only 3-6 ATS vs. teams that have losing records. 10* Washington |
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01-31-21 | Illinois State +18.5 v. Drake | Top | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
10* Illinois State (3:00 ET): There are three unbeaten teams left in College Basketball. You’re more than likely well aware of two of them, Gonzaga and Baylor, as those are the top two ranked teams in the country. But the other is Drake, a team whose season was interrupted for a full three weeks because of COVID-19. The Bulldogs are 15-0 after returning to the court earlier this week and winning a couple close games at Missouri State. Perhaps most impressive of all is that they are also 13-0 ATS this season! However, I personally don’t think Drake is even the best team in the Missouri Valley. (That would be Loyola IL, who they will face in a couple of weeks). When they returned to the court Tuesday (following a 22-day layoff), the Bulldogs looked a little shaky as they trailed Missouri State by 15 at halftime and it certainly appeared their unbeaten run was headed for its demise. But they rallied to win there (outscored Missouri State 42-20 in 2H) and then won again by five the following night. Today marks the largest spread for any Drake game this season, with the exception of Chicago State, who was arguably the worst team in all of College Basketball before cancelling its season. Illinois State should be getting a lot more respect from the oddsmakers than this. While only 5-10 SU on the year, most of the Redbirds’ losses have been close, the exceptions being the pair against Loyola. They just lost two at home to Valparaiso, both of which saw them come in as the slight favorite. The second of those two games saw them ahead late, but they were outscored 7-2 in the final 99 seconds and lost 70-66. It certainly didn’t help that their second leading scorer (Josiah Strong) scored only two points the entire game. While Drake is likely to win this game straight up and thus remain unbeaten, their ATS win streak is certainly long overdue to end. 10* Illinois State |
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01-30-21 | Pistons +5.5 v. Warriors | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
10* Detroit (10:05 ET): The Pistons are by no means a good team, but they did just upset the Lakers on Thursday night, 107-92 as seven-point home underdogs. That was their second big upset in the last three games as they also beat the 76ers at home, 119-104 as 4.5-point dogs. They’ve covered the spread in three of the last four games and a very respectable 10-6 ATS when getting points this season. Tonight they are at Golden State as they look to pull off B2B wins against the last two Western Conference champions. I think we all expected a Warriors bounce back this season after last year’s injury-riddled disaster. However, I think it’s also pretty clear the Dubs are never going to ascend back to the heights of their championship squads. They were blown out Thursday night in Phoenix, 114-93, as for the fifth time this season they failed to produce a three-game win streak. The previous two games were both here at home vs. Minnesota and while they covered each time, the Warriors are still only 4-3 ATS as favorites this season. Detroit has just one road win this year and it came against an injury-riddled Heat team. But surprisingly, their scoring average jumps away from home. Now so does the number of points they allow per game, but if they can hold the Lakers to just 92 (as they did Thursday), then I think they can get the job done defensively tonight. This is a revenge spot for a 10-point loss back on December 29th when the Pistons were playing the second night of a back to back. They’re rested this time and I’ll take the points. 10* Detroit |
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01-30-21 | Belmont v. Murray State +3 | Top | 72-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
10* Murray State (8:30 ET): With Winthrop’s loss last night, there is now only one team in College Basketball that is 10-0 or better in conference play. That would be Belmont. The Bruins are 11-0 vs. the rest of the Ohio Valley, but had a very close call Thursday at Austin Peay, whom they defeated only by an 81-76 margin. In a game with 26 lead changes and 12 ties, I shouldn’t have had to sweat the cover with Austin Peay, but that’s what ended up happening. Still, I did get the ATS win and I’m thinking tonight will be an outright win on Murray State, who is MUCH better than their 7-7 overall record. This will be only the third time Belmont has had to play B2B road games. They did not cover in either of the first two instances. Those games were against Jacksonville State (won by 7) and Evansville (won by 9). While it’s a much shorter number here, that’s because Murray State is 6-2 at home this season and averaging 88.6 PPG. They are one of the few teams in the OVC that I feel can “trade buckets” with the Bruins. Murray State’s two home losses are by a combined eight points. The Racers come into this evening off a very strong effort, a 73-53 blowout of Tennessee Tech, which was here in Murray. This is a revenge game for Murray State as they lost down in Nashville 68-55 back on December 30th. They only trailed by one at halftime, holding Belmont to a season-low 26 first half points. The difference in that game was second chance points and turnovers. I expect Murray State to play a “cleaner” game now that they’re at home. They shoot a blistering 54.3% here and also defend the 3-point line very well (opponents hitting just 27.4% for the year). Take the points, but I’m expecting the outright upset. 10* Murray State |
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01-30-21 | Utah +8.5 v. Colorado | Top | 77-74 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
8* Utah (2:30 ET): I certainly respect Colorado. In fact, my own power ratings say this should be a Top 25 team. I took them the first time they faced Utah and while that ended up being a 65-58 victory on January 11th, it was not easy for the Buffaloes. They trailed by 10 at the half before storming back for their first win in Salt Lake City since the 2011-12 season. Six made free throws in the final minute ensured they’d cover that day (as short 2.5-pt favorites), but covering this larger spread at home may prove more problematic. The Buffaloes have now won six of their last seven to get to 13-4 SU overall, including 7-3 in Pac 12 play. I look at this league as a four-team race with them, UCLA, USC and Oregon. But as much as I admire what’s going on in Boulder right now, the team has been “playing with fire” a bit. The earlier game vs. Utah isn’t the only time they’ve come from behind after being down big at halftime. In last week’s 70-59 win at Washington State, they trailed by as many as 18 points. Another win over Wazzu (on Wednesday) saw them catch a break as the Cougars were playing without their leading scorer. Colorado’s only loss in the L7 games came as a sizable favorite (-14.5) against (arguably) the worst team in the Pac 12, Washington. So it would be foolish to say Utah doesn’t have a chance to win this game straight up. After all, they led Colorado by double digits in the first meeting. That was actually the second consecutive game where the Utes blew a DD halftime lead and lost. Overall, they’ve dropped six of eight, but have had the halftime lead in four of those six losses, three times by double digits! They only lost by two at UCLA as well. I see the Utes being VERY motivated by the revenge factor here. 8* Utah |
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01-30-21 | Cal-Irvine v. Hawaii +3 | Top | 53-51 | Win | 100 | 15 h 19 m | Show |
10* Hawaii (11:59 PM ET): UC Irvine has been hot of late, winning six straight to get to 7-4 SU on the season. Playing in the Big West, those wins have hardly been against “world-beaters.” The last two wins were against last place Cal Poly and while the defensive numbers from those games look great (just 93 total points allowed on less than 33% shooting), the Mustangs are one of the most offensively challenged teams in the entire country. UC Irvine hasn’t been reliable on the road (1-4 SU) and Honolulu is arguably the toughest trip to make in the conference. I’m taking the points here. Hawaii is off a solid 76-53 win at Cal State Fullerton last Saturday. That was revenge for an 83-67 loss the night prior. The Warriors have solid rebounding and play good defense, a combination I certainly like to see when taking a team. They just held CS Fullerton to 4 of 19 shooting from three-point range. That they were able to win so convincingly on the road, despite making just four foul shots, is pretty impressive, The Warriors’ schedule has certainly been impacted by COVID, but they’ve now played six games the last three weeks, so they should be in better “rhythm.” Hawaii did lose its last two home games, both to Cal State Bakersfield, so they should be really motivated for a home win tonight. As I mentioned earlier, Cal Irvine has been shaky on the road. This will be just the second away game since X-Mas for them. They’ve averaged just 62.6 points in those five previous road games. Also, tonight marks just the third time in 12 games that the Anteaters have been favored. They’ve definitely overachieved. Hawaii was actually favored in each of its last four games. They are 2-0 ATS as dogs this season. 10* Hawaii |
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01-29-21 | Florida International +7 v. Charlotte | Top | 55-63 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
8* Florida International (6:00 ET): FIU started the season 8-3, but all of a sudden has lost five in a row - both SU and ATS. They’ve been without their second leading scorer, Radshad Davis (13.3 PPG), for the last three games. That partially explains the recent slide, but the real culprit has been the Panthers’ complete lack of defense as they’ve allowed 79 or more points in each of the L4 games. The Charlotte team they’ll face tonight is offensively challenged, a good sign, and I’m hopeful Davis will return. Even if he doesn’t, still take the points as this number is way too high. Charlotte is a team I’ve played against previously. In fact, it was exactly two weeks ago when they hosted UAB. The 49ers ended up losing that game in humiliating fashion, 61-37, as 2-point home underdogs. They’ve won two of three since then, avenging the UAB defeat and beating FAU last Saturday 74-71. However, this is a team that should feel pretty lucky to be .500 (7-7 SU) on the season. Four of its wins have been by four points or less. They’ve lost to a non-DI opponent (Belmont Abbey) and have played three overtime games this month. I understand that FIU has been struggling of late, but this line should not be so high. These teams’ play at vastly different tempos with FIU ranking 20th in number of possessions per game while Charlotte is 328th. That’s something to watch as this game unfolds. If FIU can push the tempo, then things will go in their favor. I don’t think they are as bad as they’ve looked these L5 games and with Charlotte owning just three wins by more than four points this year, who would want to lay points with them? They are, in fact, 1-4 ATS as chalk this season. Take the points. 8* Florida International |
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01-28-21 | New Mexico +7 v. Fresno State | Top | 62-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* New Mexico (11:00 ET): Fresno State is a team I’ve targeted previously and as a favorite, they become a really attractive fade. The last time they took the court was eight days ago vs. Boise State. I took Boise State -14.5 and that was a winning bet despite the fact Fresno State had the halftime lead. (The game ended up 73-51). They were supposed to play Boise State again on Friday, but that game got postponed. While the Bulldogs have been better at home this year, there’s a reason for that (weak opponents). I don’t think you can trust this team laying this many points (unless they’re playing San Jose State). Four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They swept two home games against San Jose State, covering as 14-point favorites both times. Since then, they’ve lost three in a row, all on the road. Given a 3-6 ATS record in conference play, I just don’t know why you’d want to lay points with this team right now. Now truthfully New Mexico hasn’t been very good either as they are actually tied for last in the Mountain West after splitting with San Jose State last weekend. They lost the second game as 9.5-point favorites, a result they will desperately want to atone for here. Remember that the Lobos haven’t been allowed to play any actual home games this season. Being on the road again won’t bother them. Take the points. 8* New Mexico |
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01-28-21 | Belmont v. Austin Peay +5.5 | Top | 81-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Austin Peay (9:00 ET): There are only two teams in the country that are 10-0 or better in conference play and one of them is Belmont in the Ohio Valley (the other is Winthrop in the Big South). Belmont has won 13 in a row overall since tasting its lone defeat this season, which was a bit of a shocker as they were 17.5-point favorites at home over Samford when they fell 96-83 on December 5th. Coming off a dominating win over SIU Edwardsville, the Bruins now head to Austin Peay for what will be one of their toughest games during the entire OVC slate. Austin Peay may have been caught “looking ahead” to this one as they were upset by Jacksonville State on Saturday, 76-70 as a four-point favorite. They ended the game on the wrong end of a 9-0 run. Though they shot the ball well (52.9%), for a second straight game their defense was shockingly poor. They allowed Jacksonville State to shoot 63.3% from the field, an even higher percentage than what Tennessee Tech (56.1%) last Thursday. The Governors better shore that defense up quickly as they are now facing a team that just scored 114 points in its last game. My view is that Austin Peay is ready for this one and will be much better defensively. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were in the last two games. Austin Peay’s last seven games have all been decided by nine points or less with the three losses all coming by six points or less. So this is a team that doesn’t get blown out very often. They are 7-1 straight up when playing with three or more days rest and a perfect 4-0 SU off a loss. Belmont has been really impressive, but this is their toughest test to date. Take the points. 10* Austin Peay |
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01-28-21 | Blazers v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 101-104 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:30 ET): Two teams trending in opposite directions here. Houston, who has moved on from James Harden, has now won a season-high three in a row. Their new starting backcourt of Wall and Oladipo led the way in Tuesday’s 107-88 win against Washington, combining for 44 points. Having outscored the opposition this year, the Rockets have outperformed their 7-9 SU record and should continue winning tonight as they host a wounded Portland team that has lost three in a row ATS. The Blazers’ suffered their third straight ATS defeat on Monday when they lost outright at home to Oklahoma City by a score of 125-122. It was their third SU loss in the last five games, all of which were played at home. Tonight is the beginning of a six-game road trip and you’ve got to be concerned about their prospects considering Nurkic and McCollum are both out long-term while Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr (COVID) are listed as questionable for tonight’s game. Portland is very much the opposite of Houston as they’ve underperformed their 9-7 SU record by being outscored this year. They should feel rather fortunate to be tied for 5th in the Western Conference right now, but I don’t see them maintaining that position for very long, in light of the injuries. This team is really bad defensively (29th in efficiency) while Houston is a surprising 4th in that category. This is a revenge game for the Rockets, who were beaten by two up in Portland the day after X-Mas (blew a 10-point halftime lead). 10* Houston |
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01-27-21 | Thunder v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are off a couple of very frustrating home losses to Denver over the weekend. Both games went to overtime. One went to double OT. The first saw the Suns blow a double-digit lead in the second half. Losing Devin Booker to an injury was critical down the stretch. But despite not having their leading scorer, Phoenix still competed the next night, taking the Nuggets to two overtimes before wilting late. Booker has been ruled out again tonight, but I still see the home team having enough to win. Oklahoma City was projected by many to be the worst team in the Western Conference this year. But they’ve been better than expected, going a respectable 7-9 SU the first 16 games. They just won in Portland Monday night, 127-125 as 4.5-point dogs. That was thanks to jumping out to an early lead (led by 10 at end of 1Q). But before that win, the Thunder had dropped three straight. They also have the league’s third worst point differential entering tonight. Obviously, I’m not expecting a repeat of Monday night here. Phoenix may be without Booker, but OKC will probably be without Al Horford and George Hill again. The Suns have enjoyed three full days off to get ready for this one, which should be an easy win. I am projecting the Suns to be a top six team in the West this year. Even though they’ve been better than expected, I still see the Thunder finishing near the bottom of the standings. Chris Paul should be motivated facing his former team. 8* Phoenix |
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01-27-21 | Mavs +3 v. Jazz | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:05 ET): While it may seem “dangerous” to go against a Jazz team that’s 9-0 SU/ATS its L9 games, this is the second night of a back to back for them. If there ever was a time for them to “slip up,” it would be here against a Mavs team that has underachieved the last two weeks, but is now healthy. I can’t deny just how impressive Utah has been during its nine-game win streak, out-scoring teams by 15.7 PPG. But they’ve been facing a lot of bad teams, like the Knicks last night. It’s time to “sell-high.” Coming into the year, the Mavs were a team I projected to finish in the top four of the Western Conference. As of right now, their record is just 8-9 SU and they’ve lost two in a row. But they’ve been short-handed for about three weeks, missing Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell due to COVID-19. All three traveled with the team to Salt Lake City and have been upgraded to probable. Even if not all of them play, remember we took the Mavs to win in San Antonio, which they did, last Friday. Utah’s 108-94 win over New York last night was not as easy as it looks from the final score. The Jazz trailed by 15 in the first half before completely shutting the Knicks offense down after halftime. They actually still trailed by one heading into the 4Q but allowed just 13 points over the final 12 minutes. That cost me a big Over play, which I’m not happy about. New York made only 12 field goals the entire second half! That won’t happen with Dallas, who should be happy to get some of its key players back. Before the three players in question left the lineup, this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. 8* Dallas |
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01-27-21 | Bucks -6 v. Raptors | Top | 115-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:30 ET): This rematch of the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals is being played in Orlando as are all Toronto “home games” this season. The Raptors have actually fared well in their new digs (5-2 SU), especially when compared to their poor 2-7 road record. But a matchup with the team I still consider the “beast of the East” is unlikely to go well for the home team as they have been playing short-handed (no Pascal Siakam). The Raptors lost 129-114 at Indiana their last time out. Though their 10-6 SU record is hardly dominant, the Bucks continue to boast the East’s best point differential and net efficiency rating. Make no mistake about it, this is the best team in the league outside of the Lakers. After losing B2B games for the first time all season, the Bucks went out and handled their business Sunday with a 129-115 win over a good Atlanta team. They continue to pace the league in offensive efficiency and have the league’s highest scoring average as well at 120.1 PPG. The big key here is that Toronto has not fared well when facing teams with winning records. They are just 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in those games this season. This will be their third game in four nights (after a hard-fought split in Indiana) while the Bucks have been off for two days. I just don’t see any way the Bucks lose tonight and the number isn’t very big. Lay it. 8* Milwaukee |
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01-27-21 | Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame +1 | Top | 62-51 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (7:00 ET): Virginia Tech already was a team I felt didn’t deserve to be ranked in the Top 25, now they’ve had to suspend arguably their best player for the foreseeable future. So the Hokies are a very logical fade Wednesday night when they travel to South Bend and face Notre Dame. They just lost by 18 in Syracuse Saturday and that was with starting guard Tyrece Radford (the suspended player in question) in the lineup. This will be their third straight game on the road as well. Notre Dame got me on Sunday by going to Coral Gables and beating Miami 73-59. They played a somewhat “sloppy” game (16 turnovers), but shot the ball very well and dominated the Hurricanes on the glass. The Fighting Irish finished the game at 53.8% from the field, including 10 of 18 on three-pointers. They also held a 37-28 rebounding advantage. That was a pretty impressive ACC road win and the Irish’s second win in a row overall. They defeated Boston College 80-70 here at home in their previous game. It can’t be understated what losing Radford means to Va Tech. He is second on the team in both scoring and rebounding and was the “best player on the court” (Coach K’s words) when the Hokies beat Duke earlier this month. My power ratings are quite bearish on Va Tech, still having them outside the Top 40. They’ve lost two of their three “true” road games thus far. This is a revenge game for ND who lost by 14 down in Blacksburg 17 days ago on a bad shooting night. At home, things will be different. 10* Notre Dame |
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01-27-21 | Rhode Island -6.5 v. La Salle | Top | 73-60 | Win | 100 | 5 h 28 m | Show |
8* Rhode Island (5:00 ET): After suffering a disappointing loss at Duquesne last Wednesday, Rhode Island came up with a less than inspiring effort Saturday against lowly Fordham. They managed to win, 52-42, but never came close to covering the 17-point spread. That performance was especially disappointing me as I laid the point. When you give up only 42 points at home, that should be an ATS win, no matter how large the spread. La Salle is off a shocking win at Richmond Saturday where they came in as 16.5-point underdogs. The Explorers pulled the upset in large part because they shot 57.1% from the field. That was the second game in a row they shot that exact percentage from the field. One would figure they are due to “cool off.” Facing an opponent that just allowed only 42 points in its last game seems like the “right time.” While LaSalle certainly isn’t as inept as Fordham offensively, URI can certainly turn in another top-notch defensive effort here. The Rams have held two of their last three opponents under 33% shooting. Something to keep in mind is that earlier this month La Salle shot just 28.1% from the floor in an ugly loss to George Mason. So they can be wildly inconsistent. Rhode Island is 11-4 SU, 11-3-1 ATS their L15 visits here. 8* Rhode Island |
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01-26-21 | Missouri +3 v. Auburn | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Missouri (9:00 ET): A little surprised my power rankings are now saying Mizzou is a bit underrated here after earlier in the year, they (the power rankings) seemed to be lower on the Tigers than the market was. Do I think they are the #12 ranked team in the country (as they are in the latest AP/Coaches Polls)? No. But they are better than Tuesday’s opponent, Auburn, a team that has come on strong of late (5-0 ATS L5) but still doesn’t even crack the top 65 of my power rankings. Take the points here. Missouri has won and covered three straight, the latest win being very impressive as they went to Knoxville and beat Tennessee 73-64 as a 6.5-point underdog. That’s why they moved up to #12 in the polls. The Tigers have lost just twice all season, one of those being to Tennessee, so that’s now been avenged. The last three wins have been by a total of 36 points. Missouri shot very well in the 1H against Tennessee and played excellent defense throughout, holding the Vols to 35 percent in the 2H and forcing 18 turnovers. Auburn just hung 109 points on South Carolina Saturday, which is probably the reason they come in favored over a ranked team. Admittedly, the Tigers have looked much better since #1 recruit Sharife Cooper became eligible. Him playing coincides with the team’s 5-0 ATS run, but they are just 3-2 straight up in those games. They were actually the underdogs in Columbia on Saturday. This will be just the third time they’ve been favored in SEC play (if the line holds). Missouri has won four of the six games they’ve been an underdog. 10* Missouri |
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01-26-21 | Western Michigan +14 v. Ohio | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (6:00 ET): Western Michigan isn’t very good, but this number has grown far too high vs. Ohio Tuesday night. The last time the Bobcats were favored by double digits was against the worst team in the MAC (Northern Illinois) and they didn’t come close to covering as they won by just three points. While a solid 4-2 this month, the Bobcats have won just once by more than 10 points and I don’t think they’ll do that here as the team is only 8-6 SU on the year and 1-4 ATS off a SU win. WMU has lost five in a row, four of them at home. While it sounds bad, be aware that the Broncos’ last four opponents are who I’d rate the top four teams in the conference. During the five-game losing skid, WMU has led or been tied at the half in three of them. That includes Saturday vs, Akron, whom they led 38-31 at the break. Eventually, this team is going to have a breakthrough. They are 2-0 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points this season. Ohio was dreadful from three-point range Saturday vs. Ball State, making only 5 of 22, but they compensated for it by taking 35 free throw attempts, which was a lot more than the 19 Ball State took. That advantage at the charity stripe is how the Bobcats won by eight. The game before, OU scored a season-low 26 pts in the 1H (at home) in a game they basically trailed wire-to-wire vs. Kent State. Just not convinced that this is a squad that belongs in this price range. In two of the last four games, the Bobcats have allowed 57% (or higher!) shooting. 8* Western Michigan |
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01-25-21 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 81-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma State (9:00 ET): Both teams could very well be short-handed coming into this one. Well, we know Iowa State will. The Cyclones have been hit hard by COVID-19 with their last four games, three of which were to be against Top 25 opponents, all postponed. They haven’t played since Jan 9th when they got their doors blown off by Texas Tech, 91-64, which left them at 2-7 overall and 0-5 vs. the Big 12. I faded ISU in that Texas Tech game and will do so again now as they’re in even worse shape. All Iowa State team activities have been paused for the L10 days, creating quite the challenging situation for HC Steve Prohm. Prohm has said the Cyclones will be without several players for tonight and that all four of his walk-ons will need to be “ready to play.” That doesn’t sound promising. This was already looking like a rough season in Ames and now the team has gone 10 days without a full practice. Because of protocols, no more than two players have been able to practice together at a time and players aren’t even allowed to see one another, unless they are roommates. Oklahoma State had a key absence Saturday as the Big 12’s leading scorer and presumed #1 NBA Draft pick Cade Cunningham did not suit up. But despite missing their best player, the Cowboys actually led #1 Baylor at the half! Cunningham was cleared for Saturday (COVID), but was not ready to play according to the coaching staff. His status for tonight remains unknown, but the bottom line here is that the Pokes are the much better team here. They’ve not only hung tough with the likes of Baylor, Texas & West Virginia, but also beaten Texas Tech and Kansas. If Cunningham does play, it’ll be a bonus as I don’t think this game will be close at all. 10* Oklahoma State |
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01-24-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 26 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (6:40 ET): The Chiefs are not only in, but hosting the AFC Championship Game for a third consecutive season. However, it certainly FEELS a lot different than last year when they rode a 7-game ATS win streak into the season’s penultimate game and defeated Tennessee 35-24 here at Arrowhead Stadium. That team would of course go on to win the Super Bowl and end the season on a 9-0 ATS win streak. This year, the Chiefs come into the AFC Title Game on a 1-8 ATS run and that one cover comes with an asterisk as some (myself included) were able to grab the Saints +3.5 in that game, which ended up being a 32-29 KC victory. Last week, they had to hold on to beat the Browns 22-17 (closed -7.5 most places) as Patrick Mahomes left the game with a concussion. I’m operating on the assumption that Mahomes is going to play Sunday. It’s not as if Kansas City hasn’t had to overcome some attrition before. In last year’s playoff run, they trailed by double digits in all three games! Buffalo is in its first AFC Championship Game since 1994 when they were in the final year of their infamous four consecutive Super Bowl appearances (0-4), led by Jim Kelly, Thurman Thomas and Bruce Smith. They are viewed as the “up and comers” in this matchup, but the reality is the Bills are a bit lucky to be here as they’ve been outgained in both playoff games, 472-397 by the Colts and 340-220 by the Ravens. Both games swung on goal-to-go decisions by the opposing team. Indianapolis failed to score a TD on 4th down while Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson threw a “pick-six” in the end zone when the game was still 10-3. Remember that the Chiefs got a first round bye, so that and the home field are two key advantages they have here. Back in Week 6, they won in Buffalo 26-17 as 5.5-point favorites, so we’re getting a ton of value with this line. I took the Chiefs in the first half of that game and won. Here I’ll play the full game as Mahomes has won 11 straight starts and is 26-14 ATS as a single-digit favorite. 10* Kansas City |
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01-24-21 | Notre Dame v. Miami-FL -3 | Top | 73-59 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (6:00 ET): The Hurricanes are off a terrible 83-57 loss at Syracuse from earlier in the week. Even though that was their 7th loss in 10 games, “The U” is certainly due for better results as it has fallen by five points or less in five of those seven defeats. Look for them to get back on track Sunday vs. the Fighting Irish, who are off a rare win, just their second in the last eight games. The Irish have just one road win all year and it was by a single point over struggling Kentucky. Lay the points here. Notre Dame has played only four games in January and three of them were on the road. They lost at Virginia, Virginia Tech and North Carolina. Then came an 80-70 win over Boston College last Saturday where they were 4.5-point favorites to win. It was a strong first half that propelled them to victory there, but the issue has been that the Irish are just not good defensively. They allow 75.7 PPG on the road. Being an underdog hasn’t been good at all for them as they are 5-33 SU L38 (1-8 this year) and 3-6 ATS this year. Miami is solid defensively as they allow 64.2 PPG here in Coral Gables and a 39.5 FG%. I’d say what happened Tuesday in Syracuse was an atypical performance, not indicative of what the Canes are all about. As I alluded to earlier, this team has been rather unlucky in close games this season. They have three losses by two points or less. I say they bounce back in a big way here as ND is 0-4 ATS its L4 times playing with 7 or more days rest and dead last in the country at forcing turnovers. 10* Miami FL |
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01-24-21 | Fordham v. Rhode Island -16.5 | Top | 42-52 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): I have faded Fordham before, successfully I might add. It was in home games vs. St. Bonaventure and UMass, back to back, that I stepped in and won. Sunday is another good time to fade. While Rams did cover the spread their last time out, staying within a 18.5-point spot against Davidson (lost 73-58), they still have yet to score 60 points in a game all season and that’s a problem when facing a Rhode Island squad that’s more than capable of hanging a big number here. URI has had its own issues with the pointspread recently, losing games they were favored to win against UMass and Duquesne. It should be pointed out though that those outright losses came on the road. In fact, they’ve played just one home game since January 3rd. It was a 20-point win over George Mason last Saturday. The Rams come into this game sporting a 4-1 SU home record and I really like the fact they are holding the opposition to just 40.5% shooting for the season. Fordham has just one win this season and it came by a single point (55-54) in a shocking upset of Dayton (they were 12-point underdogs). Averaging only 51.0 points per game is really horrendous when you think about it and Rhode Island will not be in a giving mood Sunday having lost two of their last three games outright. URI is 3-0 ATS off a conference loss so far and this just might be the easiest game they’ve got left on the schedule. Note their last two losses were both by just two points, one in overtime and the other they blew a DD lead. 8* Rhode Island |
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01-23-21 | Weber State +1 v. Southern Utah | Top | 72-77 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
10* Weber State (2:00 ET): It’s rare that the oddsmakers make an error. It’s even rarer when they do so on the same matchup twice in a row. But that certainly appears to be the case here. I wish I would have gotten down on Weber State Thursday night when they hosted Southern Utah as the Wildcats rode a hot first half (led 47-27 at the break) en route to an easy 91-67 win and cover as three-point favorites. Despite that lopsided result, Weber State did not open as the favorite for this rematch on Saturday. I realize this game is in Cedar City, but my power ratings say the road team should be favored. Getting back to the concept of the oddsmakers’ error, certainly it’s always possible that one team just had a “good day” and made them (the oddsmakers) look bad. But I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here. Yes, Weber State played a great game Thursday and they were at home (where they are now 7-0 SU this season). But I simply believe they are the better of these two teams. The Wildcats are now 6-1 ATS on the season and have won their last four games (all at home) straight up. They are only 1-3 SU on the road, but two of those losses were against Boise State and BYU, who are quality opponents. Southern Utah is 10-3 SU, but they have four wins by five points or less and two one-point victories. Like Weber State, the Thunderbirds are undefeated at home (8-0 SU), so the expectation here will be for them to earn a split of this home and home. But it’s telling the line isn’t higher. Again, I think Weber State should be favored. Will the shooting be as lopsided as it was Thursday night? Probably not. But Southern Utah has a LOT of ground to make up and I don’t see that happening in less than 48 hours. 10* Weber State |
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01-23-21 | James Madison +6.5 v. Northeastern | Top | 63-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
8* James Madison (12:00 ET): So something will have to give in this Noon ET tip in the Colonial. Northeastern is undefeated in the conference (6-0 SU and ATS) while James Madison is a perfect 4-0 ATS as underdogs. One thing is for sure. The visitors won’t lack motivation in this matchup. They’ve lost six straight times to the Huskies while also failing to cover every game. But this time, the number seems a tad too high. An early line move towards JMU seems to confirm my “suspicions” about this matchup. Northeastern’s 6-0 start in the CAA has seen them sweep three teams - Elon, Hofstra and College of Charleston. Impressive as that may seem, three of the last four wins have come by five points or less. Now those are three that they played on the road. But still, the Huskies should feel a little fortunate. They just won two close ones last weekend at Charleston where they were slight favorites. The Huskies haven’t been favored by much in any of their conference games to this point. This opened as the largest spread to date. They have not been favored by more than six points in any game this season. James Madison has played only one conference game due to opponents’ COVID issues. They won that lone CAA tilt, beating Towson last Saturday by a score of 81-72 as a 2-point road dog. That was the Dukes’ third straight win dating back to Jan 5. Yes, three of their wins this season have been against non-DI teams. But they almost beat VCU as a 20-point underdog on the road, losing that game 82-81. Something that needs to be stated is that JMU has the CAA Player of the Year in Matt Lewis, who went for 30 points last time out and hit 9 of 12 three-pointers. Take the points. 8* James Madison |
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01-22-21 | Grand Canyon -11 v. Dixie State | Top | 77-74 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): GCU is a team I’ve played before this season, when they hosted Nevada back on December 11th. They won that game 87-77 as a 1-point dog, at the time improving their won-loss record to a perfect 4-0. A three-game losing streak then followed, but two of those setbacks were by just 1 point and they actually covered all three. They’ve played just four games here in January, winning them all, including a pair of blowouts last week vs. non-DI team Bethesda (CA). The Antelopes’ ATS record this year is 7-1. Dixie State is new to D-I this season and the hodge-podge WAC seemed like the ideal landing spot for a team making the jump from Division II. However, as you may have guessed, things haven’t gone all that well for the Trailblazers this season. They are just 4-5 SU, two of those wins coming vs. non-DI teams and the other two coming by a combined four points. It’s a four-game losing streak heading into this game with two of those losses coming by at least 33 points. (Admittedly, one was vs. Gonzaga). Going by their 7-1 ATS record, it’s clear that the oddsmakers aren’t giving Grand Canyon enough respect and that continues to be the case with this number, which should be several points higher. Dixie State is among the very worst teams in the country (my own personal power ratings say bottom 15) and I don’t see how they deal with a GCU team that is shooting 53% from the field for the season. Bryce Drew’s Antelopes are the ONLY team in the country to rank Top 10 in both field goal percentage offense and defense! This is a decent team, at least when compared to the rest of the WAC lot. 10* Grand Canyon |
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01-22-21 | Mavs -2 v. Spurs | Top | 122-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavericks ended their longest losing streak in two seasons (three games) Wednesday night, picking up a nice 124-112 win in Indiana. Believe it or not, that was the first game all season that the Mavs shot better than 50% from the field (52.4%). That’s shocking when you consider this team led the league in offensive efficiency last season. Despite the 3-game losing skid I mentioned at the top, the Mavs are still 6-2 ATS L8 games and I expect them to begin moving up the Western Conference standings in no time. They are 4-0 ATS off their previous four straight up victories. San Antonio is coming off its worst loss of the season, something I can’t say I’m sorry about. Their 121-99 loss to the Warriors Wednesday night was my 10* Game of the Week (on Golden State -1) and saw the Spurs never lead in the entire contest after falling behind by double digits in the first quarter. They trailed by as many as 25 at one point as it was a dreadful shooting night, particularly from three where they finished an unsightly 4 of 33. Will their shooting improve in this game? Yes, probably. But I still don’t think that will be enough. Since a four-game losing streak that surrounded the New Year, the Spurs have NOT dropped B2B games, going 6-3 SU overall. But I feel that distinction ends here tonight against what I view as a far superior team. I had the Mavs finishing in the top four in the West prior to the start of the season and right now they are 9th, so it’s time to get going. As I said in Wednesday’s analysis, the Spurs had been fairly fortunate recently, beating Portland and Houston when both were severely short-handed. 10* Dallas |
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01-22-21 | Troy State v. Coastal Carolina -11.5 | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (6:00 ET): These Sun Belt foes met on three different occasions in the 2019 calendar year and each time the underdog emerged victorious. Coastal Carolina won 88-75 as a 5-point road dog in January of that year while Troy then returned the favor two months later with a 74-67 upset as 11-point pups. The first meeting of last season saw Troy win 77-59 as a 4.5-point dog. But then a “sense of normalcy” was restored in the second meeting as Coastal Carolina breezed to a 90-60 win and cover as nine-point chalk. That’s the way I think this one is going to go tonight. Troy comes in on a three-game losing streak, every loss coming on the road. They were swept at Georgia Southern last weekend, losing 67-64 and 63-56. Offense has been a major problem this season for the Trojans as they’ve failed to score 70 in 9 of their last 10 games vs. D-I opponents. (The exception being a 79-71 home win over Samford). For the season, they are averaging only 61.2 PPG and that number dips to an ugly 56.8 when away from home. Three-point shooting (24.5%) has been abysmal. This team is also only 13-27 ATS its L40 Sun Belt games. Coastal Carolina is off a 71-68 loss to Georgia State, the only game they played last weekend. They did cover the spread though as seven-point road underdogs. Troy’s lack of offensive punch becomes a real problem when you consider the Chanticleers come in averaging a very healthy 87.1 PPG and that number jumps to 90.0 here in Conway. Granted, that’s somewhat inflated by wins over non-DI opponents, but still the team is shooting 50% from the field at home this season, including 40.6% from three-point range. Way too much firepower from the favorite in this one as CC looks to get back to the top of the conference. 8* Coastal Carolina |
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01-21-21 | Pelicans +7 v. Jazz | Top | 118-129 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): Second meeting in the last three days for these teams. The Jazz took the first, 118-102 here at home on Wednesday night, as they shot well from three-point range (21 of 47) while the Pelicans did not (6 of 26). That 45-point difference from behind the arc more than accounted for the final score. Utah has looked quite good of late as they are on a six-game SU and ATS win streak, but you should not count out New Orleans in this spot as they are desperate for a win and getting a decent amount of points. With just one victory in their last seven games, New Orleans really needs to “get going.” That one victory came against defensively inept Sacramento on Sunday and other than that, the offense really hasn’t “been there” for Zion Williamson and company. The Jazz have been outstanding defensively during the win streak, but again that can change in an instant and I certainly don’t see the home team being as prolific offensively as they were Wednesday, especially from “downtown.” Williamson is coming off B2B 30+ point games for the first time in his career. Wednesday night’s contest was largely decided in the third quarter where the Jazz outscored the Pelicans by 16 points, which was the exact final margin for the game. I’m impressed with Utah’s fondness for the 3-point shot, but that can also lead to an “off-night,” which you have to think is coming. The team’s hot start really shouldn’t be that big of a surprise when you consider they’ve gone off as the favorite in 12 of 14 games. Take the points in this one. 10* New Orleans |
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01-21-21 | Eastern Illinois +13 v. Belmont | Top | 66-79 | Push | 0 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
10* Eastern Illinois (8:00 ET): Belmont has ruled the Ohio Valley Conference this season with a perfect 8-0 SU record and their only loss of 2020-21 came all the way back on December 5th to Samford. But it is worth noting that one loss did come here at home, a game where the Bruins were 17.5-point favorites. You have to think eventually this team is going to drop an OVC game and while it may not be tonight, the number the Bruins are laying seems quite large against an Eastern Illinois team that’s better than its record. Hopefully, Eastern Illinois gets its leading scorer (Josiah Wallace) back from a hamstring injury for tonight’s game. Wallace is second in the OVC in scoring (17.5 PPG) and the team has gone winless since he got hurt. The injury occurred 1/9 vs. Austin Peay, a game which the Panthers ended up losing at the buzzer, 74-71. After shockingly falling at home to Morehead State as seven-point favorites (87-61!), Tony Romo’s alma mater suffered another crushing defeat on Saturday as they fell in OT to Eastern Kentucky. After three straight losses at home, it’s fair to say Eastern Illinois has underachieved. While the Wallace injury has a lot to do with that, this is a team that has plenty of senior talent and should be better than 3-10 ATS. I look for them to come out fired up here against a team they haven’t beaten since 2015. Belmont just gave up 91 points (no overtime) to Jacksonville State in its last game. Were Wallace to play, that would be a HUGE plus, but I’m taking the points regardless here as EIU should keep it close throughout. 10* Eastern Illinois |
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01-21-21 | Wichita State v. Memphis -2.5 | Top | 52-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
8* Memphis (7:00 ET): Memphis played at Tulsa on Sunday and I felt that line was way off. Turns out that I was incorrect in that assessment as the Tigers (who closed -1.5) lost by a single point, 57-56, to fall to 1-9 ATS on the season and 6-5 straight up. It’s certainly been an underwhelming season thus far for Anfernee Hardaway’s team and they’ve had three games postponed since December 30th, meaning the loss to Tulsa is the only time they’ve played this month. But there’s still time to “turn things around” and I believe it happens tonight at home vs. Wichita State. Wichita State’s recent form is a lot better than Memphis’ as the Shockers have won seven of eight and covered the last four. They’d had no issues with cancellations until Sunday when they were supposed to travel to SMU. I wonder if that breaks the “momentum.” Yes, I’m fully aware that in their last game the “Wheat Shockers” destroyed Tulsa 72-53, but that was at home. They’ve played just four “true” road games and while they’re 3-1 SU, the record could be worse considering all four games were decided by five points or less. Memphis has been favored in every game this season, which should tell you something. This is a talented team with five double digit scorers and they play excellent defense, giving up only 58.0 PPG here at home. Wichita State has actually covered six in a row going back to 12/15 as two of their last eight games came against non-DI foes. Other than last time out (vs. Tulsa), they don’t have a dominant conference win to speak of, so I see the respective trends reversing tonight as the home team gets back on track. 8* Memphis |
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01-20-21 | Spurs v. Warriors -1.5 | Top | 99-121 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:05 ET): Last season was anything but normal in the NBA. There was a shutdown in March, a “bubble” beginning in July and the Finals weren’t completed until October. But on a less serious note, there was something else strange when it came to start the postseason. Neither the Spurs nor the Warriors were in sight. The two Western Conference stalwarts both missed the playoffs in 2020, but they’ve each got their respective eyes back on them this season. The Spurs come in at 8-6 SU on the year and currently sit 5th in the West. Golden State, at 7-6, isn’t too far behind (in 7th). Last time out, the Spurs were able to take advantage of a short-handed Portland team (no Nurkic or McCollum) and won 125-104 as 1.5-point favorites. It was their second straight victory as they were also able to beat the Rockets 103-91 as seven-point chalk two days earlier. Again, that was a short-handed opponent though. In the wake of the James Harden trade, Houston was down to only eight players and almost couldn’t play. Yet they still led San Antonio for much of the first three quarters. Golden State was obviously short-handed for most of last year as injuries caused them to nosedive down the standings. San Antonio, like a lot of other teams, took advantage and swept the season series from the Warriors. It was two wins, one in overtime. But this year’s Warriors, while still not back at their Championship level, are much better with Steph Curry playing every day. They just upset the Lakers on Monday, a game where I backed them to cover. This line looks low to me. 10* Golden |
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01-20-21 | Auburn v. Arkansas -5.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Arkansas (9:00 ET): After starting the season 8-0, Arkansas has struggled, losing four of its last five games. But tonight the Razorbacks are matched up against a team they’ve already beaten once this year and that win came on the road with little difficulty. Now they welcome Auburn to Fayetteville where their WL record is still 9-1 SU + they are averaging 88.7 PPG. Auburn has struggled on the road, not just this season (where they are 1-3 SU), but the L3 seasons as they’ve gone 7-17 ATS. Lay the points here. I remember the first Arkansas-Auburn matchup well as I won by laying the points with Arkansas. The game went down on December 30th and featured plenty of offense with the Hogs winning by a final score of 97-85. Key for me is that they were laying 3.5 points in that one, now they’re laying only slightly more at home. Thus, I’m seeing plenty of value here given how that first game played out. Auburn actually shot 51.9% in the first meeting, including 15 of 27 on three-pointers, yet still lost by double digits at home! The Tigers are quite unlikely to match those shooting percentages tonight. They are shooting just 28.4% on the road this season from three-point range. Even with red-hot shooting, they couldn’t beat Arkansas at home. Therefore, I just don’t see much of a path to victory this time. Arkansas has gone cold in its L5 games (39.2 FG%), but given their YTD scoring average (12th in the country!) should bounce back. They shot nearly 50% from the field in the 1st meeting and also had an edge at the FT line, making 77% compared to 58% for Auburn. Those free throw percentages are right in line with the respective season averages. Off a horrible game vs. Alabama, this is a prime “buy low” spot for the Razorbacks, who are holding opponents to just 64.3 PPG in Fayetteville. 10* Arkansas |
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01-20-21 | Fresno State v. Boise State -14.5 | Top | 51-73 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
8* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is flat out rolling right now. It’s 12 straight wins for the Broncos following a season-opening loss at Houston, for which there should be no shame at all (Houston is a top 10 team). All but one of those 12 victories has been by double digits and when I took them on New Year’s Eve (at San Jose State), they won 106-54 as a 22-point favorite! The Broncos are one of a dwindling number of teams in the country that still has a perfect conference record and I see things staying that way tonight against overmatched Fresno State. The Bulldogs come in at just 5-5 SU on the year and the road has been rather unkind to them. They’ve lost all four previous road games (by an average of 18.5 PPG) and none of them have been close. Last weekend saw FSU get swept in Reno, losing by 14 and 16 in two games vs. Nevada. That’s actually better than they did earlier in the year at Colorado State when they dropped two in a row by a combined 44 points. They’re now at Boise for a pair this week (next game is Friday) and it’s difficult to see how a team that’s 1-5 ATS vs. .500 or better teams competes here. Furthermore, four of Fresno State’s five wins this season have come against either non-DI teams (William Jessup and Fresno Pacific) or San Jose State (worst team in the MWC). They are 0-4 ATS as underdogs. They have shot just 38.1% in those four previous road losses and are making only 24% of their three-point attempts. They are also a horrible free throw shooting team. Boise State is 28th in the country in scoring (81.8 PPG) and their average margin of victory in MWC play so far is an eye-popping 23.4 PPG. They allow only 58.4 PPG at home. 8* Boise State |
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01-19-21 | Penn State v. Illinois -8 | Top | 65-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
8* Illinois (8:30 ET): There really is no excuse for Illinois to have lost so many games thus far, even though four of the five defeats have come by six points or less (three by 3 pts or less) and the other to #2 Baylor. My own personal power ratings still consider the Fighting Illini a top 10 team in the country, but right now they are on the verge of falling out of the Top 25 in both polls (AP/Coaches) after suffering B2B losses to Maryland and Ohio State in the L9 days. Both those losses came here in Champaign! I can’t see a third straight home loss, so I’ll lay the points against a team the Illini have already beaten this season. This is a rematch from 12/23 when Illinois went to Happy Valley and won 98-81 as four-point chalk. Based on that line and result, you can see we are getting some value with the favored side tonight. Penn State shot 53.8% in that first meeting, something they are very unlikely to do here in the rematch as their FG% on the road this season is just 39.7. They allowed Illinois to shoot 55% in the first go-around as I see no reason why the Illini can’t come close to matching that number tonight, given how they are shooting overall (51.3%) for the season. Penn State has played just twice since that loss to Illinois last month. They’ve gone down in road games at Purdue and Indiana, the latter taking place Sunday. It was the third game in a row the Nittany Lions allowed at least 80 points. That’s not a good sign when taking on the 7th most efficient offense. Remember what I mentioned earlier, the Illini hung 98 points in the first meeting. Poor starts have doomed Brad Underwood’s team the L2 games. I do not see that happening here. 8* Illinois |
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01-19-21 | SE Missouri State +5 v. Tennessee State | Top | 63-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* SE Missouri State (7:00 ET): This is a matchup of two not-so-good Ohio Valley Conference sides and the bottom line is you would want to take the points, no matter who was favored. I’ve got the teams rated virtually even, so there’s really no reason that Tennessee State should be laying this many points … to anyone. They are last in the OVC with a 1-6 SU record and just 2-8 SU overall. While five of those losses have come by four points or fewer (what crummy luck!), I still would never endorse the Tigers as chalk. SE Missouri St is just 3-8 SU and 1-4 vs. the rest of the OVC. But they are 5-1 ATS on the road as well. They actually covered the spread at Belmont, notable as that’s the class of the conference and the Bruins also happened to destroy Tennessee State by 25 here in Nashville. Now the RedHawks have just one SU win in their last eight games, but it came against … Tennessee State back on January 2nd! It was an 83-79 win for SEMS, a game that went to double overtime. That the RedHawks won was pretty remarkable when you consider they shot just 35.8% including 5 of 23 from three-point range. SEMS has also had poor luck in close games, losing four games that were decided by six points or less. They did win the close one vs. TN State, doing so as 1.5-point chalk. I see no reason why the line should have swung so much for the rematch. As an underdog, the Red Hawks are 6-3 ATS this season with outright wins over UMKC and Lipscomb. Tennessee State has been favored only two other times, one of those being their last game, which they lost outright at Tennessee Tech 74-71. Take the points. 10* SE Missouri State |
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01-18-21 | Warriors +9 v. Lakers | Top | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Lakers, as expected, have been very good this season as they lead the Western Conference with an 11-3 SU record. They’ve won five in a row and 9 of their last 10. Their YTD point differential (+11.0 per game) is the league’s best and their net efficiency rating is right on par with Milwaukee. What I’m saying is that, yes, the defending NBA Champs are again the team to beat. They’ve won four straight by double digits, but look for tonight’s game to be a little closer than expected as they’re facing a Golden State team that’s eager to get back to the pinnacle of the league once again. Last year was an injury-induced disaster for the three-time champion Warriors and a bounce back was all but assured for 2020-21. Just how much they “bounce back” remains to be seen as the Dubs currently sit 8th in the West and aren’t the same offensive juggernaut they used to be. They’ve lost B2B games - to Indiana and Denver - and had a game vs. Phoenix postponed on Friday. Having not played since Thursday, I’m expecting a hot start here from the fresh Warriors in this nationally televised affair. One key for the Dubs will be maintaining their recent play on the defensive end. They’ve held six straight opponents under 115 points and if they can do that again here, they should be able to easily cover the large spread. The Lakers have actually lost each of the L3 years on MLK Day -- by a total of 60 points! Also, all three losses this season have come at home. With a game at Milwaukee later this week, the Lakers may be overlooking the Warriors and that would be a mistake. I smell a big game from Steph Curry. 10* Golden State |
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01-18-21 | VMI +7.5 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 81-92 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
8* VMI (7:30 ET): These SoCon rivals met three times last year, once in the Conference Tourney, and while East Tennessee State won all three games straight up, it was VMI that covered the spread every time. The losses were by six, five and 13 points and the Keydets have nothing to hang their heads over as East Tenn State was a good team last season. This season, the Buccaneers aren’t quite as strong, hence this line being in the single digits (something that wasn’t the case in any of the three meetings LY). VMI is a strong offensive team, which was very evident on Saturday when they defeated The Citadel 110-103. No, there was no overtime. The Keydets are now averaging 82.1 PPG on the season, so it’s going to either take a lot of points by ETSU, or a really strong defensive effort, to cover the number here. VMI is 7-3 ATS on the year, including 4-0 if they allowed 80+ points the previous game. I realize their defense is shaky, but this is a spot the Keydets usually cover in. Also, two of their last four losses have been by two points. East Tennessee State is coming off a loss, 78-66 at Wofford where they were 9.5-point underdogs. That was their first game in two weeks, but it was late, not early, that saw them struggle. The Buccaneers can’t score at the rate VMI does and while they are the better defensive team here, I don’t think they’ll be able to contain the opponent enough to cover this large of a spread. ETSU has only been favored in three games so far and only one time by more than 3.5 points. They failed to cover, laying 12.5 to Gardner-Webb. Two of ETSU’s last three opponents have shot at least 50% from the field. 8* VMI |
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01-18-21 | St. John's +8.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
10* St. John’s (2:30 ET): It just feels right to be able to once again call these teams conference rivals. UConn has rejoined the Big East this season and this will be the first meeting w/ St, John’s since 2013. The Huskies not only comes in ranked (#25), but they’ve covered six in a row. The Huskies’ only loss came by two points against Creighton (a top 10 team). They’ve won four straight (SU) since including a 3-0 January record with all those games coming on the road. UConn hasn’t taken the court in a week due to a game with #3 Villanova being postponed. This game will be on FOX Monday afternoon. St. John’s hasn’t had nearly the amount of problems with COVID cancellations than UConn has. The Red Storm have played nearly twice the number of games the Huskies have and come into today sporting a 7-7 SU record. It’s been a bit of a struggle recently as the team started 5-1, but has now dropped six of its last eight including a 2-point home loss to Marquette on Saturday. As an underdog, the Johnnies have struggled and they are also winless on the road (0-4 SU). They are in both roles Monday, but I’m expecting this to be a strong effort off the narrow loss 48 hours ago. This boils down to the fact that I feel UConn is due for a bad game. Coming off a week layoff and playing a rare weekday afternoon game, it just “feels” like this might be it. St. John’s has had several narrow losses, just not Saturday, while UConn’s won a couple close ones. The Huskies are without leading scorer James Bouknight and quite frankly were lucky to beat Depaul last week as they were outrebounded and shot the ball poorly. Depaul was careless with the basketball and that’s why UConn won the game. St. John’s averages almost 80 PPG and will be a lot tougher to beat. Take the points. 10* St. Johns |
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01-17-21 | Evansville v. Bradley -8.5 | Top | 55-86 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
8* Bradley (4:00 ET): These teams just played Saturday and while Bradley “only” won 69-60, they are still being undervalued for this rematch. The respective shooting percentages from yesterday’s game are very interesting to look at. Bradley shot an incredible 61.4% from the floor while Evansville finished at just 37.7%. You may see those numbers and think there’s no way that kind of difference will repeat itself. But consider Bradley was only 3 of 11 from three-point range (27.3%) while Evansville was 14 of 34 (41.2%). Making 11 more threes than your opponent and still losing by nine is a pretty bad deal if you’re Evansville (or any other team for that matter). I just don’t see there being any way that discrepancy repeats itself again Sunday. So that’s bad news for the Purple Aces, who made only SIX two-point field goals in yday’s game. I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a low number! Meanwhile, Bradley shot 24 of 33 from inside the arc, so they’ve got a clear edge down low in this particular matchup. Evansville is now just 1-4 SU on the road this season. They are 6-7 SU overall and did cover six straight games at one point, but consider them overachievers as they’ve been favored just twice in their last eight games. They’ve now lost two straight as they fell at home, 73-68, to Illinois State last Sunday. Bradley has won two straight as they beat Northern Iowa by two on Monday. The Braves have won four in a row at home and have beaten Evansville six straight times by an average of 11 PPG. They have huge edges down low and defensively. 8* Bradley |
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01-17-21 | Memphis -1.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 57-58 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
10* Memphis (3:00 ET): Memphis has failed to cover six in a row and is just 2-8 ATS on the season. But things should change today as they face Tulsa for the second time. This spread is as off as any I’ve seen in awhile. The Tigers were 9.5-point favorites when they hosted Tulsa on December 21st. While they lost that game 56-49, my personal power ratings still have them significantly favored in this revenge spot. Oddsmakers opened them as underdogs, which appears to be a mistake as they were quickly bet to the role of favorite. I’ll follow the money on this one. In that first meeting, there wasn’t much offense to speak of. I do find it incredible that Memphis found a way to lose, at home, despite holding Tulsa to just 19 points in the first half! Things took a dramatic turn after the break with the Golden Hurricane outscoring the Tigers 37-22. Neither team shot well with Tulsa making only 34.7% of their FG attempts and Memphis making only 32.1%. The teams combined to go a horrendous 10 of 41 from three-point range. The difference came at the FT line where Tulsa made 17 of 28 compared to just 10 of 21 for Memphis. Anfernee Hardaway’s team has had their last three scheduled games all postponed due to COVID, so they should be “itching” to take the court Sunday. They haven’t played since December 29th! So they’ll be fresh. Meanwhile, Tulsa just lost by 19 at Wichita State on Wednesday, snapping a six-game win streak. As well as they’d been playing, the Golden Hurricane come in averaging just 61.7 PPG and Memphis is a stout defensive team. I believe in my power ratings and the fact Memphis is better than its record (they’ve been favored in every game) while Tulsa is not as good as theirs. 10* Memphis |
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01-17-21 | Massachusetts -8 v. Fordham | Top | 65-46 | Win | 100 | 4 h 19 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (2:30 ET): UMass is 4-3 SU, which has to be considered disappointing as all three SU losses came when they were favored. But those three losses - to Northeastern, Bryant and George Mason - were all by five points or less. So the Minutemen could easily be coming into Sunday with a better won-loss record. They’ve definitely turned things around over the last week or so, beating LaSalle and Rhode Island, the latter being a close game that went their way (80-78) and it was an upset as the Minutemen were three-point home underdogs. Now they are road favorites and should have little difficulty beating a Fordham team that has yet to break 55 points in any game this season. If you recall, I just played against Fordham Wednesday afternoon when they faced St. Bonaventure. That ended up being a somewhat close call with the Bonnies prevailing 68-54 as 11-point road favorites. The Rams scored only 17 points in the second half as their offensive woes continued. Not only have they yet to score more than 55 in any of their five games, but they are shooting a dreadful 34% from the field, including 23% from three-point range. As I mentioned in Wednesday’s writeup, Fordham was picked to finish last in the Atlantic 10 this year. You’re starting to see why. Three of their four losses have been by double digits and two of those were by 24 and 37 points. They are one of the worst offensive teams in the country. So this should be easy pickings for a UMass team that is averaging 85.3 PPG. The Minutemen have scored at least 75 in every game and beat La Salle twice, by 19 and 16, which is noteworthy as Fordham lost to the Explorers by 37. 8* Massachusetts. |
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01-16-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Blazers | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): I guess it’s time to “pump the brakes” on that Hawks’ bandwagon as the team has now dropped five of six following what was an impressive 4-1 SU start to the season. They just lost last night in Utah, 116-92, a result I did not care for as an Over bettor. That was the Hawks’ seventh straight game to go Under, yet oddsmakers are still expecting a high-scoring game here as they face Portland. I’ll stick with taking the points here as the underdog should be pretty desperate for a win. The Blazers were also blown out in their last game, losing 111-87 here at home to Indiana. While they had won four in a row before that, two of the wins were against Sacramento and another was vs. Minnesota. The other was a 1-pt win over Toronto, who is struggling. Portland is now just 1-5 ATS this season at home where it has been outscored. They are a bottom five team in the league in defensive efficiency, which is not a good sign. Neither is the fact Jusuf Nurkic broke his wrist Thursday and will be out indefinitely. Atlanta could not buy a bucket last night as they went 5 of 28 from three-point range and watched Utah go on a 21-0 run to open a 29-point lead. As horrible a performance as that was, the Hawks are obviously going to shoot the ball better tonight being that they are facing a poor defensive team. Trae Young in particular is due for a big game. The Hawks had been 3-0 ATS in the underdog role prior to last night’s loss, which was their largest of the season. Teams are often undervalued in the second night of a back to back, especially if they’re off a loss, and that’s the case here. Take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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01-16-21 | Ravens +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -100 | 76 h 12 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:05 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams square off Saturday night in the Divisional Round. I’m betting big on the Ravens. While Buffalo is on a seven-game win streak, Baltimore has won six in a row and covered seven straight. The Bills just had their own eight-game ATS win snapped last week. Though their fans could hardly care as the franchise FINALLY got the proverbial “monkey off its back” by winning in the postseason for the first time in a quarter century. But they were a bit lucky to win considering the Colts outgained them 472-397. In fact, all nine Indianapolis drives ended in Bills’ territory! The Bills’ defense forced only two punts the entire game and both were in the 1Q! Baltimore had to overcome an early 1Q deficit to win its Wild Card Game, which was sweet revenge after what happened against Tennessee in LY’s playoffs. But I thought the Ravens were pretty clearly the better team last week. They outgained the Titans nearly 2:1 (401-209). With the Bills’ defense struggling for much of last week, I expect the Ravens offense to put up a big number here. Their strength is running the ball and that happens to the weakness of the Bills’ defense which has allowed 150+ rush yards five times this season. Lamar Jackson and company have had no issues scoring down the stretch, averaging 34.3 PPG during the six-game win streak. The Ravens ended up leading the league in scoring differential in the regular season. So this will likely come down to Baltimore’s defense being able to stop Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense. I think they’re up for the challenge. Allen’s two top receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are still battling injuries and RB Moss is out, leaving Devin Singletary as the primary ball carrier. With the weather forecast calling for snow, that’s a benefit to the team that likes to run more (which is Baltimore). I do NOT think the Ravens should be underdogs here, but I’ll gladly take the points as they are 9-2 ATS their L11 as dogs, including seven outright wins. Jackson is 14-3-2 ATS on the road. 10* Baltimore |
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01-16-21 | Rams +7 v. Packers | Top | 18-32 | Loss | -125 | 73 h 32 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:35 ET): A majority of the headlines referred to the Rams’ Wild Card victory over the Seahawks as “shocking.” But it was no shock to me. I backed them. While it was a little surprising to see them score 30 points with Jared Goff being called into emergency duty, I specifically cited the Rams’ defense as a reason they might pull the upset. I don’t think people realize how good this team, specifically its defense, really is. The Rams had the best yards per play differential in the league during the regular season and their defense was #1 in scoring, total yards allowed and passing yards allowed. Going into the Divisional Round, we know Goff will be starting and I’ll take the Rams plus the points again. Green Bay defied regression to go 13-3 SU for the second straight regular season. Aaron Rodgers is the likely MVP this year. To be clear, when I talk about “defying regression,” I’m speaking of the fact the Pack went an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU in one-score games a year ago. That usually guarantees a fewer # of total wins the following season, but it didn’t here and that’s largely because of the play of Rodgers. Green Bay had a much better YTD point differential in 2020 (+140) than they did in ‘19 (+63). They come into the playoffs on a real roll, winners of six straight games, all by seven points or more. But only one of those victories came against a team that finished with a winning record. I’m not going to put much stock in Goff’s 0-2 record when gametime temperature is 32 degrees or lower as that is a very small sample-size. Like they have much of the season, it’ll be the defense carrying the Rams anyway. Aaron Donald is going to play, which is key. So is the fact Jalen Ramsey will be charged with covering Rodgers’ favorite target Davante Adams. The Rams’ defense has allowed more than 24 points in just three games this season. This team is 5-2 ATS and STRAIGHT UP as an underdog and is a perfect 6-0 ATS/SU coming off a division game. Even with the bye, I don’t think this spread should be higher than five points. Take the points. 8* LA Rams |
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01-16-21 | Florida +1 v. Mississippi State | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Florida (4:00 ET): The Gators went almost three weeks without playing a game in December. Since returning to the court “full-time,” they’ve gone 3-2 SU including a key win over Ole Miss, 72-63, in Gainesville earlier in the week. Now they head to Starkville where they’ll take on a Miss State team that lost its “shooting touch” in a 56-55 loss to Texas A&M on Wednesday. That was the fewest points scored in a game by the Bulldogs since the season opener. They had topped 80 in six of their previous eight contests. While the tendency is to back the home team in a bounce back spot, that’s not the case here as Florida is just plain better. Of course, the big story this season with Florida was the on-court collapse of Keyontae Johnson, back on 12/12 vs. Florida State. It was after that the team went nearly three weeks without playing. The Gators have also had to endure players missing games due to COVID, such as Scottie Lewis, who did not play in the last game. Things were not looking great following losses to Alabama and Kentucky, but then came the win Tuesday over Ole Miss where the Gators really turned up the defense. Remember that this team beat LSU a couple weeks ago. They are also playing with double revenge here (0-2 vs. Miss St L2 seasons). MSU has lost four games this year in which it held a halftime lead. Wednesday vs. Texas A&M was the latest. They led the Aggies by 10 at the break in that one, only to score just 22 points in the 2H. A&M closed the game with a 12-5 run to win by a single point. Don’t be surprised if that has a carryover effect. Florida has had an extra day off (compared to MSU) to prepare here. Miss State struggles to defend the three-point line and you should look out for Florida’s Colin Castleton, who had 21 pts, 10 rebounds and EIGHT blocks in the last game. 10* Florida |
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01-15-21 | UAB -1.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 61-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
10* UAB (5:00 ET): UAB looks to be severely underpriced here. The Blazers have lost only one time (9-1 SU) and that was to Chattanooga (who’s now 11-3 SU) by three points. They were 10.5-point favorites in that lone defeat, which they’ve subsequently bounced back from by beating Southern Miss twice last weekend. But, as double digit favorites, the Blazers did not cover either game vs. Southern Miss. While this is only the second “true” road game of the season, they beat a decent E Tenn State team in the first and that was on the only game (besides today) this season that they DIDN’T go off as a DD favorite. We look to be getting a real discount here. Charlotte is 5-5 SU and coming off a terrible loss to a non-DI opponent, Belmont Abbey. That’s the only game the 49ers have played in the L2 weeks. The team had previously won four of five and covered two straight at home vs. Western Kentucky. They did have a couple impressive early season wins, beating South Carolina State by 38 and upsetting Davidson on the road as a 10.5-point dog. But their other three wins have all been by four points or less and they’re a bit lucky to even be .500 at this point. Defensively, UAB has been excellent, giving up just 57.0 PPG. That ranks 3rd in the country among teams that have played at least 10 games with the only two allowing fewer being Houston and Tennessee, a pair of Top 10 teams in the country. Charlotte has been through a lot recently with their last two games both going into OT and a COVID 19 cancellation vs. Marshall. Not only did they just shoot only 36.8% against a non-DI team, but they’ve allowed three of the last five opponents to shoot 50% or better. UAB has double revenge and is 5-1 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest. 10* UAB |
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01-14-21 | Warriors +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:05 ET): Denver has struggled out of the gate and I can’t say I’m all that surprised. Coming off B2B seasons where they seemingly “overachieved,” regression was eventually going to take hold. In 2018-19, the Nuggets really benefited from a 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. In 2019-20, they weren’t as fortunate in close games, but did manage to still finish 3rd in the West despite having the 6th best point differential in the Conference. They have begun the current season 5-6 SU (3-8 ATS) and are coming off a six-point loss in Brooklyn the other night. Conversely, everyone expected Golden State to improve this year after shockingly falling to the depths of the league in 2019-20. Injuries were the main culprit for LY’s decline. I don’t think we’ll ever get to the point where it’s the “Warriors of old,” but there’s no reason why the Dubs can’t nap a top eight spot in the West this season. It’s a little surprising that they’ve only been favored three times so far, the most recent being Tuesday’s 104-95 LOSS to Indiana. But despite that, they still come into tonight sporting a 6-5 SU overall record. The Nuggets are probably due for a lower-scoring game tonight after shooting better than 50% from the field in three consecutive contests. Plus, they just allowed the Nets to shoot over 60% on Tuesday. But Golden State should see its own scoring increase here following B2B subpar shooting efforts against Toronto & Indiana. Rather quietly, the Dubs are playing great defense of late as they’ve held their L5 opponents to 105.6 PPG on 42.9% shooting. I like them as underdogs tonight as they’ve won outright four of their last five times in that role. Take the points. 8* Golden State |
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01-14-21 | Purdue v. Indiana -4 | Top | 81-69 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:00 ET): The Hoosiers have lost seven straight times to Purdue, a streak that goes back to the 2016-17 season. But this year, IU is clearly the better team and I think they’ll show that Thursday night at Assembly Hall. I was on the Hoosiers Sunday evening when they went to Nebraska and won 84-76 as a six-point favorite. While that ended up being a close game for much of the second half, be aware that IU led by double digits at halftime and was in control most of the way. They’ve now won three of four, the lone loss coming in double overtime at Wisconsin last week. I’m laying the points here. Purdue is off an upset as they went to East Lansing last Friday and beat Michigan State 55-54 as a six-point dog. We know Sparty is overrated this year, but don’t tell that to the contingent in West Lafayette as they were just happy to win a game after dropping three of their previous four. The Boilermakers have also really been struggling at the betting window where they are just 2-7-1 L10 games. I should mention tonight will be their FOURTH consecutive road game, a tall order no matter the opponent, but when faced with a team that has an argument to be in the Top 25 the task is obviously even more difficult. Purdue has played a total of five “true” road games before this. They have been held under 60 points in four of them. That seems troubling when facing a team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home, not to mention just dropped 84 on the road. The Hoosiers are also 14th in the country in defensive efficiency. They are obviously well aware of the losing streak to Purdue and thus should come in supremely motivated here. Tip your cap to Purdue for the win at East Lansing, but they trailed by 15 at halftime and won on a last second shot. 10* Indiana |
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01-13-21 | Pelicans +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 106-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (10:05 ET): The Pelicans haven’t played since Friday and will be eager to end a three-game slide here. They were favored in all three losses - to Indiana, OKC and Charlotte - all of which were at home. Then came a COVID-19 postponement as they were supposed to face Dallas Monday, but the Mavs didn’t have enough available players. With extended rest, I like the Pelicans getting points tonight as they are back on ESPN to face the inconsistent Clippers. Take the points. The Clips let me down Sunday as they were not able to defeat the Bulls by the margin the oddsmakers were calling for. They won 130-127 as double digit favorites, a result they’ll take considering it came on the heels of a meltdown against the Warriors two days prior. But letting the Bulls shoot over 60% for the game was a major “red flag” to me. They trailed by seven at halftime, but were rather fortunate to go 20 of 38 from three-point range and thus rallied to win. I don’t think they can count on that kind of shooting again here as the Pelicans are holding teams to an average of just 100.2 PPG on the road thus far. I just think this is too many points for the Clippers to be laying to a desperate team. While they are 1-4 ATS as favorites this year, the Pelicans have not gotten this many points in any game so far. I’ve got this spread at 4.5 as New Orleans has outscored its opponents this season. They should be fresh and with this being the start of a six-game road trip, highly motivated. 10* New Orleans |
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01-13-21 | Mavs v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 104-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): I like the Mavericks quite a bit and fully anticipate they’ll finish in the top four of the Western Conference by season’s end. But Charlotte has very much been an above-average team so far (surprising!) and because of that I’m taking the points Wednesday night. While the Mavs come in as winners of three in a row - SU and ATS - the Hornets have won and covered four straight, three of those coming in the underdog role. I had them last Friday in an upset of New Orleans on ESPN. Following that, they blew out the Knicks 109-88 as five-point home favorites. This is already the second (and final) meeting of the season between these teams. Back on December 30th, the Hornets went into Dallas and pulled out a stunning 118-99 upset as eight-point underdogs. That was a cold-shooting night for the Mavs as they made only 39.1% of their FG attempts and were 12 of 42 from three-point range. If you’re looking for a reason why the Hornets have gotten hot, then look no further than the defensive end. Since a season opening loss in Cleveland, only Philadelphia has topped 110 points against them. Dallas had a game postponed due to COVID on Monday, so that very well might “throw them off.” The last time they played was Saturday (a 112-98 win over Orlando), so don’t be surprised if they come out rusty. A slow start could very well cost them and this looks like a real bargain on the Hornets considering they were +8 when they visited Dallas. Now they are they home team and the Mavs are 0-5 ATS L5 as road favorites. 8* Charlotte |
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01-13-21 | St Bonaventure -11 v. Fordham | Top | 68-54 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
8* St. Bonaventure (2:00 ET): We have what appears to be a massive mismatch from the A-10 this afternoon with the Bonnies playing at the long-time dreg of this league, Fordham. The road team comes in at 4-1 SU with the lone loss coming by six at Rhode Island. Since then, they’ve managed to beat a good (but somewhat overrated) Richmond team and then blew out St. Joe’s 83-57 last week. I don’t see any reason why the Bonnies shouldn’t win in blowout fashion again today as they face an opponent that has yet to score more than 55 points in a game this season. Fordham last’s game was played on Saturday and they did hang in there against Duquesne, “only” losing by three points (48-45!) as 13.5-point road underdogs. That came on the heels of the Rams’ only win of the season, a shocking 55-54 upset of Dayton here at home where they were 12-point underdogs. Prior to that, they lost by 24 and 37 to George Washington and LaSalle. Because of COVID-19, the Rams’ season didn’t even get underway until December 30th. It’s not like there was much to look forward to as they were predicted to finish LAST in the conference in the preseason poll. With Fordham’s offensive numbers being so dreadful, I just don’t see how they keep pace in this one. Yes, they’ve been able to rely on their defense to cover the L2 games and pull the one outright upset. But St. Bonaventure comes in averaging a solid 73.4 PPG. Furthermore, they defend the three-point line quite well as is evident by the fact their opponents are shooting just 25.7% from there for the season. Fordham is 341st in offensive efficiency this season (out of 357 teams). The Bonnies have covered six straight times against them and today should make it seven. 8* St. Bonaventure |
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01-12-21 | Pacers v. Warriors -3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Indiana is off a tough loss last night in Sacramento (127-122 as 3.5-pt favorites), which I feel makes them particularly vulnerable in the second night of B2B road games. Golden State, who is building “momentum” in the wake of victories against the Clippers and Raptors, should take full advantage of the situation. Since opening 0-2, the Warriors have won six of eight and what’s particularly jarring is the fact they’ve gone off as the favorite in just two of the victories. But this seems like an obvious time to lay a short number. Golden State’s surge has actually come on the strength of their work on the defensive end as they’ve held four straight opponents to 108 points or less. During their incredible run of five straight Finals appearances, the Dubs routinely ranked among the league leaders in defensive efficiency. That’s something I think has been forgotten. Steph Curry actually had one of the worst shooting nights of his career vs. Toronto (2 of 16!), so it was a real “feather in the cap” that the team still won that game. Curry should obviously be expected to shoot the ball much better tonight. Indiana had been playing solid defense as well, but has now given up 125+ points in B2B games, both of which they lost as favorites. Making matters worse for tonight is the fact the team is already playing short-handed (no Warren, Lamb or McConnell) and the top three scorers (Sabonis, Brogdon, Oladipo) all played 37+ minutes last night. This simply looks to be a terrible spot for the Pacers. Depth is already a huge edge for Golden State as their reserves average 41.8 PPG (4th most in the league) while Indiana’s average only 30.3 (27th). That edge should be further exacerbated tonight. 10* Golden State |
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01-12-21 | Providence v. Marquette -3 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Marquette (9:00 ET): This Tuesday night Big East battle is critical for both teams, but especially Marquette, who has failed to cover in five straight games. The lone SU win during that stretch was by four against Georgetown (on Jan 2), but that was quickly followed with an 11-point home loss to UConn. Friday’s game at Villanova had to be postponed and there’s a good chance (given ‘Nova is the #3 ranked team in the country) that would have been yet another defeat. I view the postponement as a huge break for the Golden Eagles as they come into tonight well rested (full week off) while the opponent (Providence) is playing its second road game in three days. Let’s also not forget that Marquette holds victories over both Wisconsin and Creighton. Those are both top 10 teams! So the fact they’ve been struggling so much in conference play confounds me a bit. Against UConn, they were up 18 (in the second half!) but were on the wrong end of a 42-13 run down the stretch (what?!) and scored just two points over the final 4:44. Still, I don’t think there’s any reason to panic. At home this year, the Golden Eagles are allowing a FG% of 37.9! Their own shooting, which has been poor the L2 games, should improve here against a team that’s not very good defensively. Providence is coming off B2B losses by a combined three points. They lost by two at home to Creighton on Jan 2, then by one at Xavier on Sunday. The loss to Xavier was particularly brutal as the Friars shot better than 51% for the game and led by seven with just over a minute to go. They allowed the game’s final eight points and the winning basket, a three-pointer, came with just 0.1 seconds left on the clock. I find it hard to believe Providence is going to be able to recover from a defeat such as that with such a short turnaround between games. They are 1-6 ATS playing with one or less days rest the L3 seasons, including 0-2 this season. Not only does the schedule work in Marquette’s favor here, they’ve got the added motivation of double revenge for a pair of losses to the Friars last season. 10* Marquette |
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01-12-21 | Akron -9 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 65-67 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
8* Akron (3:00 ET): You may not know this, but Northern Illinois is atrocious. At 1-9 SU, the Huskies can be found among the bottom 25 teams in the country in my personal power ratings. They are the lowest rated MAC team. The one win came against a Chicago State team that could be the worst in the entire country and actually just suspended its season. But coming off a surprise loss at Eastern Michigan on Saturday, don’t look for favored Akron to take the Huskies lightly. Rather, they can sense the “blood in the water” and should win here in blowout fashion. The Zips were hoping for a convincing win Saturday in Ypsilanti, but were instead upset by Eastern Michigan as 5.5-point chalk. They scored a season-low 59 points as they shot just 25% from 3-point range. Turning it over 17 times didn’t help matters either. I think they re-discover the shooting touch Tuesday as NIU just allowed its previous opponent (Miami OH) to shoot 53.2%. It was almost exactly one year ago that Akron came here to DeKalb and won 72-49 as 2.5-pt favorites. Northern Illinois has been dreadful at the offensive end, averaging only 58.8 PPG. They’ve topped 64 only twice, against Ball State on 12/8 and Ohio on 1/5 . That Ohio game is the only one the Huskies have covered as it was a 3-point loss. Saturday’s 70-58 loss to Miami was already the sixth double digit loss (in 10 games) for the Huskies. They are now 5-14 ATS the L3 seasons coming off a game where they scored 60 points or less.The favorite won’t mess around in this afternoon game. 8* Akron |
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01-11-21 | Colorado -2.5 v. Utah | Top | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Colorado (6:00 ET): Colorado may or may not enter the rankings when the new Top 25 poll is released later today. Regardless they SHOULD be included as my power rankings like this team quite a bit, calling them the Pac 12’s best. They just beat Oregon 79-72 on Thursday and that’s significant because the opponent they face tonight (Utah) just lost to the Ducks on Saturday (here in Salt Lake City) by a score of 79-73. Colorado also holds a recent victory over USC, who destroyed the Utes 64-46 three days later. Oddsmakers opened this line way too low and I’m jumping on it. Troubling for Utah is the fact they shot 55.8% against Oregon and still lost. It’s a virtual certainty that the Utes will not shoot that well again tonight. Against USC, they made only 27.9% of their field goal attempts. While it may not get that dire again this evening, Colorado is top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency and allows only 62.6 PPG. The fact Utah blew a 10-point halftime lead against Oregon may carry over here. While Utah has the home court edge tonight, that obviously doesn’t mean a ton in 2021. Colorado has the edge in rest as they haven’t played since Thursday while Utah’s game with Oregon was on Saturday. This game was originally going to be played on March 6th, but got bumped up because Colorado’s game with Oregon State (scheduled for Saturday) was postponed. Utah HC Larry Krystowiak seems to be tinkering with his lineup while Colorado will have the best player on the floor in McKinley Wright IV. Lay the short number. 8* Colorado |
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01-10-21 | Indiana -6 v. Nebraska | Top | 84-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 38 m | Show |
10* Indiana (6:00 ET): Similar to yesterday’s GOW winner on Texas Tech, I’ve got this line a lot higher than it actually is. With a 7-5 SU record, Indiana obviously isn’t going to merit much conversation for the Top 25. But my power ratings DO consider them a Top 25 team. Consider that four of their five losses this year have been to Top 25 teams with the most recent (Thursday) coming in double overtime at #8 Wisconsin. That was the third loss to a team rated in my own Top 10, two of them in OT. The Big 10 gauntlet is tough for everybody, but Nebraska is probably the worst team in the conference. So look for the Hoosiers to win big Sunday. Nebraska has lost four in a row coming into this game and they haven’t been all that competitive. While they covered their last game, as a nine-point underdog here at home vs. Michigan State, that was actually the Cornhuskers’ first ATS victory since November 28th (and just the second of the season). They lost by seven to Sparty, but before that their previous five losses had all been by double digits. They lost here in Lincoln as a five-point favorite to Nevada. Their only three wins this year have been vs. McNeese State, North Dakota State and Doane College. IU won all three meetings w/ Nebraska last season, all of the wins coming by six or more points. Right before the season shut down, they ended the Cornhuskers’ season with a 25-point beatdown in the Big 10 Tournament. Nebraska is being outscored by 17 PPG so far in Big 10 play and isn’t likely to match the kind of shooting we saw from them vs. Michigan State. Defensively, Indiana is allowing just 40.7% shooting for the year. I think this is where they break out offensively, even without Armaan Franklin. 10* Indiana |
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01-10-21 | Bulls v. Clippers -11 | Top | 127-130 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (4:05 ET): I expect a VERY strong effort from the Clippers on Sunday afternoon. This is a team that just blew a 21-point second half lead Friday and lost to the rival Warriors. Following that defeat, Kawhi Leonard quipped “things have to change.” He was probably referring to the fact that since the start of last season, the Clippers have lost an NBA-high eight times when leading by 15+ points. This team should definitely be better than 6-4 coming into Sunday. It’s “wrong place, wrong time” for the Bulls here. Now we’ve got to be wary of the fact Chicago has covered seven of its last eight games including the last four. All of those covers came as underdogs and they’ve won four of the games outright. But Sunday afternoon in LA will mark the Bulls’ fourth road game in six days and you have to wonder how much they’ll have left in the tank. Honestly, I think the fact they have been covering so much sets us up with some nice value. Yes, the spread is double digits. But it’s not like the Clips aren’t capable of winning by that kind of margin. They’ve won twice by at least 13 this season and there have been multiple other games where they built DD leads. The fact that they are routinely up so big should tell you something - this is still one of the better teams in the NBA. Again, they should be very motivated coming off the Golden State loss.The Bulls just lost by two and four points the last two games, making this an even harder than normal fourth road game in six days. The Bulls are 27th in defensive efficiency and I believe could get torched by a motivated favorite. 10* LA Clippers |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team +9 | Top | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:15 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Tampa Bay is a big road favorite here, which is actually NOT a great spot historically as the only three previous road teams to be favored by six or more all lost outright, including the now infamous 2010 Saints, who were facing a 7-9 division winner (Seattle) that no one thought “deserved” to make the playoffs. Washington is only 7-9 and we all (rightfully) mocked how bad the NFC East was this year. But the truth of the matter is that the Football Team is better than its record. They had a +6 point differential in the regular season, which is better than two other playoff teams - Chicago & Cleveland. Also, they were 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS in starts made by Alex Smith, who hasn’t been an underdog of more than seven points since guiding the Chiefs to an upset win in New England back in Week 1 of the 2017 season. The last two 7-9 (SU) teams to make the playoffs both won in the Wild Card Round. This is the Saturday night game and let’s not forget Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS in primetime this season. They lost (outright) to the Bears, Saints (badly) and the Rams. The only primetime win was by two points against the Giants, Washington’s division rival. I believe the Football Team has the kind of defense (tremendous front four) that can give Tom Brady trouble. Plus, Brady’s best receiver (Mike Evans) may not even play (‘gametime call’). This Washington defense is #2 in the league in yards allowed and #3 in scoring. The Football Team’s last five losses have all been by seven points or less. 8* Washington |
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01-09-21 | Hawks -4 v. Hornets | Top | 105-113 | Loss | -107 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): I’m “turning on” the Hornets here after they delivered me a 118-110 outright win last night in New Orleans. The change of course makes sense. Not only is this the second night of a back to back for Charlotte, but they are also facing a revenge-minded Atlanta team they just defeated Wednesday night. I’d say it seems pretty easy to envision the Hornets having a “letdown” game Saturday night, coming off B2B upsets. We’ve got to pay a premium here (Hawks were only -5.5 at home Weds night), but it’s well worth the investment, in my opinion. Following a strong 4-1 start to the year, the Hawks were looking like one of the most improved teams in the league. But three straight losses - all as favorites - have really quelled that discussion. It’s not just that the Hawks have lost three in a row, it’s who they’ve lost to: Cleveland, New York and Charlotte. If they envision themselves as one of the league’s most improved teams, then those are games they have to win. It is worth noting that they held DD leads in the second half against both the Knicks and Cavs. Those are games that Atlanta SHOULD have won. Against Charlotte on Wednesday, the Hawks took a lot of ill-advised shots early and found themselves in a 16-point hold at the end of the 1Q. They trailed by as many as 24 as Gordon Hayward scored a career-high 44 points. But they did battle back to make a game of it and took the lead in the 4Q before fading late. Charlotte was actually down by 18 last night before coming back to win. The fact they had to play a game in between the two vs. Atlanta, last night no less, is an obvious disadvantage. I’m expecting the Hawks to roll here and improve to 5-0 ATS on the road this season. 10* Atlanta |
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01-09-21 | Rams +3.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (4:40 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. While the QB situation is in flux, I don’t think most are aware of just how good this Rams defense is or the fact the team’s YPP (yards per play) differential is among the very best in the league this season. I’m taking the points here. This Rams’ defense led the league in both scoring (18.5 PPG) and yards allowed (282.1 per game) this season. They were also #1 against the pass. Opposing offenses scored a TD on only 16% of their possessions during the regular season. While you may think Seattle QB Russell Wilson is set “to cook” here, you better think again as he went just 2 of 16 on passes of 30+ yards the final eight reg season games, including 1 of 6 vs. the Rams, who are the best in the league at limiting such completions (just 14.8%). Wilson has NOT thrown for more than 200 yards in any of the L3 games, a stretch which has seen the Seahawks get outgained, something that was the case over the course of the season as well! The more interesting battle here seems to be whomever the Rams QB is vs. the improved Seattle defense. Rams HC Sean McVay won’t announce whether its going to be Jared Goff or John Wolford until right before kickoff, but obviously he and the team knows. Seattle doesn’t, which is an obvious disadvantage. The Seahawks’ defense went from being the worst in the league over the first eight games to the best over the final eight games, which is quite the transformation. The reality is probably somewhere in the middle. Most Seahawks’ games end up being close, so I like the points with a Rams team that has covered four of its last five as a road dog of three points or less. 8* LA Rams |
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01-09-21 | Texas Tech -7.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 91-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (4:00 ET): Texas Tech remains one of the more talented teams in the country, but they really need to start covering some games. A failure to cover the 16.5-point spot vs. Kansas State earlier this week made it seven consecutive ATS losses for the Red Raiders, who come in at #19 in the country for Saturday’s tilt with Iowa State. This is certainly a game that the contingent from Lubbock should win as ISU is just 2-6 SU and coming off games vs. Baylor and Texas. So I’ll lay the points in this Big 12 matchup. Not sure what Iowa State did to the schedule markers, but this has been an absolutely brutal stretch of games for the Cyclones. As I just mentioned, in the past week they’ve had to take on both Baylor and Texas, a pair of Top 4 teams. They lost by 11 to Baylor and by 6 to Texas, so the ‘Clones were competitive and in fact covered the spread in both games. But what will they have left as they prepare for a third straight game against a top five defense in the country? Texas Tech makes you work at the offensive end and I’m just not sure ISU is gonna have much left in the tank here. Last season, Texas Tech swept the season series from Iowa State, winning by 20 and 30 points. So this is an opponent they’ve dominated in the past. I think it’s critical to note that while Texas Tech “only” won by 11 its last time out and Iowa State “only” lost by six its last time out, the margins were bigger for a substantial portion of those games. Iowa State has beaten only two teams this year: Arkansas-Pine Bluff and Jackson State. Some of that is due to the brutal schedule, but they did lose here in Ames to South Dakota State and were blown out (by 28) at Iowa. Texas Tech slams the door here. 10* Texas Tech |
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01-09-21 | Colts +7 v. Bills | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 49 h 32 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (1:05 ET): Underdogs have generally been the way to go in the Wild Card Round, going 6-2 STRAIGHT UP the past two seasons. Going all the way back to 2007, there has been at least ONE upset in the WC Round in 11 of 13 seasons. Now that the “SUPER” Wild Card Round is upon us (six games rather than four due to playoff expansion), I don’t really expect the trend to change. Did you know the Colts were an underdog just ONE time during the regular season? That was when they were +1 in Cleveland of all places. They are the ONLY team in the league that wasn’t +3 or higher in any game in 2020. Buffalo comes into the playoffs red-hot, having won six straight (all by 10 pts or greater) and 9 of their last 10. Their only loss in those L10 games came on the now-famous “Hail Murray” vs. Arizona. The Bills have covered the spread in each of their L8 games, which is the longest ATS win streak entering the postseason since the 2011 Saints. Only three teams in history have carried a longer ATS win streak into the postseason and all of them came prior to 1995, which is the last time the Bills franchise won a playoff game. While the Bills are deservedly big favorites to win here, there’s a lot of pressure on them in what is their first home playoff game since ‘96. I don’t think most people fully appreciate how good this Colts team is. They played just one bad game all season (vs. Tennessee) and that was when they had a number of key defensive players out. This defense is top 10 in the league in both scoring and yards, having spent a majority of the year at/near the top. QB Rivers is 6-2 ATS in his career as a playoff underdog, including 4-0 when getting seven or more points. I think this spread should be several points lower and the Colts are absolutely capable of winning outright. They’ve won six of eight and in one of those losses (Pittsburgh) they blew a DD lead. Buffalo’s top two receivers (Diggs, Beasley) are both dealing w/ injuries. 10* Indianapolis |
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01-08-21 | Hornets +6.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Hornets have been dreadful when favored thus far (0-3 STRAIGHT UP!), but they’ve been somewhat reliable when getting points, going 3-2 ATS and producing all of their SU wins in that role. The most recent win came Wednesday night when they went to Atlanta and beat a much improved Hawks team 102-94. They led by double digits almost the entire way (save for a big 4Q run by the Hawks) and were led by Gordon Hayward’s career-high 44 points. Meanwhile, New Orleans has also struggled in the role of favorite. They’ve lost two straight as chalk, falling here at home to Indiana and Oklahoma City. The latter saw them laying eight points to a Thunder team that simply is not very good. The Pelicans gave up 27 fast break points in the game, allowed OKC to make 19 three-pointers and trailed by as many as 14 (10 entering the 4Q). Because of Zion Williamson, there’s a lot of “hype” surrounding this team, but I don’t really think they’re “their yet.” It’s the Pelicans that find themselves favored (again) tonight, so I’m going to fade as I expect Charlotte to “stick around.” Something that surprises me is that the Pelicans are just 25th in offensive efficiency. This very well could turn out to be a low-scoring game, so that’s another reason to want to take the points. Then again, the Pelicans have allowed 111+ points in five of their previous seven contests. Charlotte has allowed that many just twice since the season opener. Going back to before the shutdown, the Hornets are 10-2-1 their L13 games as an underdog. 10* Charlotte |
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01-08-21 | Northern Kentucky +3 v. Cleveland State | Top | 44-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
10* Northern Kentucky (7:00 ET): Seeing Cleveland State atop the Horizon League with a 6-0 record is not something I expected to see, especially after the Vikings were throttled 101-46 by Ohio U one month ago. In that game, CSU found itself on the wrong end of a record-setting 40-0 run (spanning both halves). That’s right; they gave up 40 consecutive points to the opponent without scoring one themselves! Since that time, the Vikings are 7-0 ATS and have won six in a row in league play, sweeping IPFW, Youngstown State and IUPUI. It’s a run that’s bound to come to an end and in the words of Neil Young, “tonight’s the night!” Northern Kentucky is off its own sweep of IPFW last week, winning those two home games by seven and two points. The Norse were expected to be one of the Horizon’s top teams this season (#3 in preseason poll) and have started conference play 3-1 SU. While they’ve yet to win a “true” road game in 2020-21, they’ve had great success here at CSU in the past, going 4-1 SU/ATS L5 visits. I was impressed that they were able to win their last game despite only SEVEN free throw attempts (made them all). One area where I expect NKU to improve tonight is their 3-point shooting as they are hitting just 28.4% from behind the arc thus far. Pegged for seventh in the preseason Horizon League poll, it is definitely a surprise to see Cleveland State in 1st place sporting a 6-0 SU/ATS record. The Vikings started the season outside the top 300 in my power ratings. Give them some credit, but two of the three teams they’ve swept are expected to be the bottom two in the league. Also, only one of the six victories has been by more than 10 points. The Vikings have been terrible for years, averaging just 11 wins per season since 2017-18! Trust me when I say that the better team is getting points here. 10* Northern Kentucky |
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01-07-21 | Mavs +3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:05 ET): These two teams finished 7th (Dallas) and 3rd (Denver) respectively in the Western Conference standings a season ago. But that’s quite misleading. It was the Mavericks who had a far better YTD point differential (+4.9 per game vs. +2.1 for Denver) and I was REALLY hoping that they’d be matched up in the 1st round of the playoffs, so I could fire away on Dallas. That didn’t happen though. What did happen is that Denver overcame TWO 3-1 series deficits to get to the Western Conference Finals while the Mavs went home after the 1st round. For Denver to finish above Dallas last year, there had to be some “luck” involved and sure enough they had nine wins by three points or less and a Western Conference-high five wins in OT. That’s BEFORE the playoffs, mind you. Dallas was a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, undercutting the fact they had the third most double digit wins in the conference. I’m not sugarcoating it one bit when I say the Mavs were a better team than the Nuggets last season. I believe they are going to be better this season. Now is their time to prove it. The Mavs are off a 113-100 win in Houston, which was much needed as they were off a loss in Chicago (no Doncic). Doncic returned with a triple double vs. the Rockets. Though just 3-4 SU right now, the Mavs have destroyed the Clippers (51-point win) and also beat Miami by 10. Denver was 1-4 before a home and home sweep against lowly Minnesota. They’ve already lost a couple of close games, so the expected regression in that area has taken hold. These teams met three times last season with Dallas winning twice and the loss was by one point. The underdog is the better team here. 10* Dallas |
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01-07-21 | BYU +17.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* BYU (8:30 ET): So far, only one team (West Virginia) has been able to stay within single digits of #1 Gonzaga. It’s tough to find many flaws with the top-ranked team in the country as they’ve shot the ball at 50% or better in every game but WVU (were 49.3%) and the last six wins have all come by 23+ points. They even defeated Kansas and Iowa, two teams I consider to be Top 10 in the country, by double digits. But eventually the Zags are due for an “off-night.” All we need here is BYU to stay within 17 points, which I believe is very plausible. BYU beat Gonzaga last February by 13 points. They did it by holding the Zags to 5 of 25 shooting from 3-point range. Now that game was played in Provo, but note the Cougars have won both of their road games this season and those were not “easy” games at Utah State and San Diego State. The Cougars have played just one bad game all year and that was against USC on December 1st. Other than that, their only loss was by just four points to Boise State. They are more than capable of “hanging” with Gonzaga tonight. The win over San Diego State marked the only other time previous to this that BYU was an underdog this season. They were even favored in the USC game, which should tell you that this is a pretty talented team. Tonight is the start of a brutal stretch of three road games (at St Mary’s and San Francisco next week), so BYU does not want to start their 2021 with a blowout loss. They’ve had two weeks to prepare for this game, so you have to expect that they’re ready for the challenge. I don’t expect them to win, but they will keep it close. Take the points. 8* BYU |
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01-07-21 | Cincinnati +6 v. SMU | Top | 76-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): The Bearcats have lost five in a row, the last four all coming as favorites. They are 1-7 ATS on the season (2-6 SU). So clearly they are underperforming. But all of their losses have come vs. teams in the top 100 of my power rankings. Three of the last four have been by five points or less. So I relish the opportunity to take this team as an underdog, something that they’ve been only one other team this season (vs. Tennessee). The Bearcats have played a much more difficult schedule than SMU to this point, so I view the respective won-loss records to be very misleading (which is reflected in the spread). SMU just suffered its first loss of the year and it came here at home, 74-60 to Houston. Now Houston is obviously a very good team. But the Cougars also happened to be the first “good” team SMU had faced all season. The only other game they’ve played that was expected to be competitive was at Dayton, which they won by just two points. Two things that HAVE to improve for Cincinnati here are their 3-point shooting (just 26% on the year) and the amount of times they turn the ball over (21.1% of all possessions). One would think that those numbers can ONLY get better. The Bearcats have beaten SMU seven straight times by an average of 13 PPG, so this is a matchup they’ve definitely done well with in the past. I see no reason why Cincy should be struggling as much as they are. They were competitive against everyone except Georgia (lost by 15 on the road) and SMU’s 6-1 SU record just seems phony. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati |
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01-06-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Heat | Top | 107-105 | Win | 101 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): It’s a rematch of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals tonight on ESPN with the Heat hosting the Celtics. Coming up short in that series should still be fresh in the minds of the Celtics being that it was less than three months ago. The unprecedented short turnaround between seasons is something to keep in mind when looking at the Heat as their season didn’t end until mid-October. They’ve gotten off to a bit of a “slow” start, alternating losses and wins through the first six games. If that pattern holds for Miami, then tonight will be a loss. They are coming off a 118-90 win over a bad Oklahoma City team (as 9-pt chalk) Monday night. But they are 0-2 SU/ATS when coming off a win this season, those losses coming by 47 (to Milwaukee) and by 10 (at Dallas). Incredibly, the Heat have had a different starting lineup in every game so far, so things are far from “settled” with this group right now. While all three wins have come here at home, it’s pretty difficult to look past the inconsistency we’ve seen from the Heat thus far. Boston turned in its own impressive win Monday, beating the Raptors 126-114 as a six-point dog. They were led by Jayson Tatum’s 40 points. This will be the Celtics’ fourth straight road game and third in four nights. But obviously, the revenge factor should counteract any “disadvantage” that situation presents. I expect them to be the far more motivated team Wednesday night and it would be even better if Marcus Smart returns from a thumb injury. The Celtics were favored in every game in the ECF, remember. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season and 29-18 ATS the L3 seasons. 8* Boston |
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01-06-21 | NC-Greensboro +2.5 v. Wofford | Top | 84-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): I think it’s fair to say that most expect Furman to be the pace setter in the underrated SoCon this season. This was a strong conference last year and the teams we’ll be focusing in on today are likely competing for “who’s #2” (behind Furman). We’ve got UNC Greensboro, who is off an upset loss to East Tenn State (who was another good team from this conference LY) visiting Wofford. This is a very significant game for the visitors, not just because of the upset loss Saturday, but also because they have had problems beating Wofford in the past. I think they do so here. Take the points. The previous two seasons have seen Wofford go 5-0 ATS, 4-1 SU against UNCG, which includes a win in the 2019 SoCon Tournament They are 7-1 ATS the L8 meetings as well. However, the majority of those games were close. Four were decided by four points or less and both games last year went into OT. UNCG ended its four-game losing streak to Wofford with an 83-79 win in the most recent meeting, but obviously did not cover as 9-point chalk. I think that a key to handicapping this matchup is the expectation that we will see a reversal of “shooting fortunes” from each team’s last game. UNC Greensboro shot a dreadful 32.8% from the floor in the loss to ETSU, a game they were favored to win by 7.5 points (lost 71-61). Led by Isaiah Miller, arguably the best player in the SoCon, I expect a much better effort on the offensive end tonight from the Spartans. Meanwhile, I don’t think there’s any chance Wofford matches the 63.3% shooting we saw against Samford on Sunday. UNCG is simply better at the defensive end. 10* UNC Greensboro |
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01-05-21 | Wolves +12 v. Nuggets | Top | 116-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (9:00 ET): Things couldn’t be going much worse for the T’wolves right now as they’ve lost four straight - by a combined 95 points! Karl-Anthony Towns is injured and won’t play again tonight as the team finishes off a home and home with Denver. The Nuggets won 124-109 in Minnesota Sunday night, getting key contributions from Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and most surprisingly, Facundo Campazzo. But I don’t believe the team can count on shooting 42% from three-point range again, like they did the other night. Before the win in Minnesota, the Nuggets had gotten off to a very disappointing 1-4 SU start to their season. This is a team that has defied the odds a bit the L2 seasons, winning a lot of close games, not to mention rallying from a PAIR of 3-1 series deficits in last year’s playoff run. I do NOT see them finishing as high in the Western Conference standings this year. Considering they’ve lost three of four home games, the Nuggets are far from a safe bet in this price range. Defensively, they are dead last in efficiency in the entire NBA. Minnesota really needs an inspired effort tonight. Not just because of the four-game losing streak. They’ve also lost nine in a row to Denver going back to 2018. They actually shot the ball well Sunday, making more than 51% of their field goal attempts, but it was from behind the arc where they struggled. They made only 10 of 31 3PA and with Denver making nine more 3PA, that was the difference in the ball game. Look for that discrepancy to be a lot tighter tonight and the T’wolves to stay within the double digit spread. 8* Minnesota |
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01-05-21 | Rutgers v. Michigan State -1.5 | Top | 45-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (9:00 ET): Michigan State became drastically overrated because of a win over Duke (another overrated team) on December 1st. That was the last time they’ve covered a spread! It’s seven straight ATS losses for the Spartans heading into tonight’s home game vs. Rutgers. While I do think Sparty remains overrated at #23 in the country, the same can be said for Rutgers at #15 and I think this is where Tom Izzo’s team “gets back on track” ATS. They did just win at Nebraska Saturday, 84-77, as 9.5-pt favorites. I had MSU when they beat Duke back on 12/1. It was the start of this incredible 87-55-2 run I’m on entering Tuesday. You wouldn’t have known the Spartans were overrated by that performance, which saw them up double digits most of the 2H en route to a 75-69 “upset” in Durham. They did have three more “comfortable” wins after beating Duke, but were favored by 23 or more in all three. That partly explains the ATS skid. But opening Big 10 play at 0-3 was a “head-turner,” even though two of the losses were on the road and the other game was played on Christmas. I just can’t see them losing tonight at the Breslin Center though. Rutgers is off a 2-point home loss to Iowa, which no doubt took something out of them. While the Scarlet Knights did beat Illinois earlier in the year, that was at home. Their last road game resulted in a 12-point loss to Ohio State. That’s the only loss besides Iowa, but I can’t look past what a challenging spot this is as they are back on the road facing a second straight Top 25 team. Michigan State was up 17 on Saturday, so don’t let the single digit MOV fool you and they are 9-0 against Rutgers since becoming conference rivals. 10* Michigan State |
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01-05-21 | Iowa State v. Texas -12 | Top | 72-78 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:00 ET): I suppose you could say this is a “letdown spot” for Texas coming off their incredibly impressive dismantling of #6 Kansas over the weekend. The Longhorns won in Lawrence, 84-59 as a 4.5-point dog, which has to be placed among the very best single-game performances by any team so far in this College Basketball season. It was the second largest road win over an AP Top 5 team in HISTORY and vaulted the 8-1 Longhorns into the top five themselves. The good news for tonight is that they don’t have to be nearly as good against an Iowa State team that’s in a trick spot itself. Iowa State just played Baylor over the weekend, so the schedule makers are doing them no favors by sending them to Austin right after that matchup. I was a little surprised the Cyclones were able to stay within the number against #2 Baylor, losing only 76-55 as a 15.5-point dog. But the game was in Ames. ISU is the only winless team in conference play in the Big 12. They are 0-3 and let’s not forget how they were obliterated by Iowa on the road, losing by 28. Their only win in the L6 games came against Jackson State. Considering Baylor didn’t even play its best game and still beat ISU by 11 on the road, I see no reason why Texas doesn’t prevail by double digits here in Austin. My own power ratings have this spread much higher, at about 17 points. The Longhorns probably are thinking “payback” here after they were blown out in Ames (lost by 29) last season. Texas showed that it is one of the best defensive teams in the country (#4 in efficiency) on Saturday and Iowa State has been held to 65 points or less by each of its previous four opponents. This one could get ugly in a hurry. 8* Texas |
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01-03-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Suns | Top | 112-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): I have a TON of respect for the 5-1 Suns, but this feels like an opportunity to “sell high” on them. Right now, I’ve got Phoenix rated third among all Western Conference teams, but tonight sees them facing one of the two teams above them, that being the Clippers, who are off a loss and thus in no mood to “fool around.” Prior to losing at Utah on New Year’s Day, the Clips only other previous defeat was that head-scratching effort against Dallas. They bounced back from that with a 23-point win in Minnesota. Going back to the bubble, Phoenix has now gone a simply amazing 13-1 SU/ATS their L14 games. The only loss & non-cover came in the second game of this season when they fell 106-103 in Sacramento. Since then, it’s been four more victories with the most recent being at Denver (106-103). This will be the third consecutive game they come in as the underdog, pretty remarkable when you consider what they’re doing, but I just can’t see another “upset” here against the best team they will have faced to date. It was a bad shooting night for the Clippers in Utah (just 38.8%) despite the return of Kawhi Leonard to the lineup after he’d missed the two previous games. It wasn’t “all bad” for Leonard however as he matched a career-high with 16 rebounds against the Jazz, despite wearing a face mask. Look for LA to work the ball inside here against the Suns. The Clippers aren’t just 1-0 SU/ATS off a loss this season, they are 21-8 SU their L29 off an outright loss as a favorite. The Suns can’t keep winning/covering forever, right? 10* LA Clippers |
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01-03-21 | Southern Illinois +11.5 v. Drake | Top | 55-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 60 m | Show |
10* So Illinois (6:00 ET): Drake looks to continue its improbable start to the season here as it hosts Southern Illinois Sunday night in a battle of Missouri Valley heavyweights. The Bulldogs are not only 11-0 SU, but also 9-0 against the spread! They opened conference play by sweeping a pair of road games at Larry Bird’s alma mater (Indiana State), winning by 18 and 7. This will be the first of two games in two days vs. SIU and you can bet Drake will be motivated since they lost both games to the Salukis last season. Southern Illinois is no slouch in its own right. They too were unbeaten heading into their last game, which turned out to be a shocking 84-72 loss to Evansville in Carbondale. The Salukis were eight-point favorites in that one having just defeated the Purple Aces the day before. This team covered the spread each of its first five tries this season and that includes outright wins over Murray State and Butler, the only other two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21. They won here as a 6-point dog, 79-72, a year ago. There is no doubt that Drake is going to be fired up for this double revenge spot, however, eventually the Bulldogs’ improbable ATS run has to come to a halt. Not only are they 9-0 ATS this season, they are 47-26 ATS the L3 seasons! Talk about making the oddsmakers look bad! You just don’t see an ATS record like that very often and the Bulldogs are even 30-12 ATS L42 as a favorite. But Southern Illinois is as tough an opponent as they will have faced so far this season and I’m taking the points with an angry dog off a loss. The Salukis led that last game at the half before Evansville caught fire from three-point range. Meanwhile, in their last game, Drake actually went into the break trailing Indiana State. 10* So Illinois |
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01-03-21 | Seahawks v. 49ers +6.5 | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): Realistically, Seattle (11-4) doesn’t have much to play for here, so I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points on the road in Week 17. Yes, they still do have an outside shot at earning homefield advantage and the NFC’s #1 seed, but that would require not only a win, but losses by BOTH Green Bay & New Orleans. The latter part of that equation is rather unlikely. Some “scoreboard watching” could lead to the Seahawks potentially “shutting it down” in the second half, making the points look even more attractive in this NFC West matchup. San Francisco proved last week that they are not going down without a fight in 2020. I took them as a dog against the Cardinals and they delivered an outright win over a team fighting for its playoff life. Since the start of last season, the 49ers are now 9-3 ATS as underdogs with eight outright victories. Three of their six SU wins this season have come against the division (2 vs. LA, 1 vs. ARI) and there is nothing more that they’d like to do here than beat a team they have struggled mightily against ever since Jim Harbaugh left. Since 2012, the Niners are just 4-14 ATS vs. the Seahawks. This seems like a really nice value on SF considering they were just a 1-point underdog up in Seattle back in Week 8. They lost that game 37-27, but still I can’t see justifying the spread getting this much bigger on the road. Seattle has failed to cover five straight away from home and seven of their wins this season have come in one possession games. I know that it’s a “raw deal” for the Niners having to play their “home games” in Arizona and they’ve yet to win as the “home team” here. But they did just win on this field last Saturday. This will be their 4th time playing here in the last 5 weeks. As I said last week, the Niners are better than their record as they’ve outgained opponents on the season. CJ Beathard is a better QB than Nick Mullens, especially with TE George Kittle back on the field. 10* San Francisco |
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01-03-21 | Titans v. Texans +7.5 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 53 h 53 m | Show |
9* Houston (4:25 ET): The 4-11 Texans have been relegated to spoilers here, but don’t expect them to “tank it” against a hated division rival that they could potentially knock out of the playoffs. Also, Houston does not have any Draft incentive being that they’ve already traded away next year’s 1st round pick (big mistake!). DeShaun Watson and JJ Watt are still both on this team and seven of the Texans’ losses this season have come in one-score games. I expect them to remain competitive at home on Sunday and this is an inflated line due to the Titans needing to win the game (my power ratings say the line should be +3.5). We know about Tennessee's success since Ryan Tannehill became the starting QB (20-4-1 ATS!), but they got drilled last Sunday night up in Green Bay. That 40-14 defeat sets up a scenario where the Titans basically must win to get in the playoffs/win the AFC South. A loss would be devastating as the Colts (also 10-5 SU) are hosting Jacksonville and will almost certainly win that game. Oddsmakers are well aware of the situation and have inflated this number knowing the public will want to bet the team in the “must-win” spot. Something to remember is that these teams went to overtime in Tennessee back in Week 6. The Titans were very lucky to cover the spread in that game as they scored a TD (rather than kick a FG) to win 42-36 as a 3.5-point favorite. Now they are an even larger favorite on the road, so there’s obvious value to be had here with a Houston team that is 14-7 ATS vs. Tennessee since 2010. Something else worth noting is that Houston has outgained its opponents this season while Tennessee has not. The Titans are rarely road favorites of this size, which helps explain the ridiculous ATS record. Take the points. 9* Houston |
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01-03-21 | Packers v. Bears +4.5 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
8* Chicago (4:25 ET): Green Bay has seemingly defied regression this season and is now in position to earn home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs. They looked incredibly impressive last week on SNF, destroying a good Tennessee team 40-14 at Lambeau Field. Last year’s Packers went 13-3, but had a point differential of only +63. They benefited from an extremely fortunate 9-1 SU record in one-score games. I thought that record in close games virtually guaranteed fewer wins this season (it usually does), but here we are with the Pack at 12-3 heading into the final game of the season, which finds them favored in Chicago. The Bears are just looking to make the playoffs, something that admittedly seemed very far-fetched a month ago. But a 3-game win streak that has seen them average 36.7 PPG has them in control of their own destiny. A win here would clinch a playoff berth. Now beating the Packers has been a problem for Matt Nagy’s team, who lost 41-25 in Lambeau the Sunday after Thanksgiving. But since then, with Mitch Trubisky back in at QB, this has been a different offense/team. The Bears’ offense has put up 30+ points in four consecutive games, something they hadn’t done going back to the 1960’s! My prediction of WL regression for the Packers can still hold true with a loss here. That piqued my interest a bit. So did the way the line has moved this week. There can be no denying that the Bears are a much different team than they were the first go-around with Green Bay. While the Packers will be motivated to earn the 1st round bye, the Bears won’t be lacking for motivation either. Trubisky is trying to earn a new contract, Nagy is trying to save his job and the team is trying to get into the playoffs by beating a rival they are 3-18 SU against in the L21 meetings. Take the points with the home dog here. Green Bay just lost its starting LT to a season-ending injury on Thursday, which is certainly significant. 8* Chicago |
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01-02-21 | Texas-Arlington +4 v. Arkansas-Little Rock | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
10* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): This is an immediate rematch from yesterday, a situation we’re going to be seeing plenty of this College Hoops season. Little Rock prevailed on Friday, winning 102-93 as four-point chalk. In what was one of the most insane things I have ever witnessed, the Trojans shot 70% from the floor including 9 of 14 from three-point range. Three months from now, my guess is that we’ll still be able to call that game Little Rock’s best offensive effort of the season. I’m taking the points with the revenge-minded underdog here. Now UT Arlington obviously needs to shore things up defensively today. The good news is that Little Rock hardly attempted a high volume of threes yesterday. The Trojans went into Friday averaging just six makes per game from behind the arc, so don’t expect them to go wild from deep again here. Nor can they possibly match yesterday’s overall shooting effort. The key is to try and hold Little Rock under 72 points, which - despite what happened yday - is doable. UT Arlington is 4-0 SU this season when holding the opposition under 72 points. The Mavericks are a good three-point shooting team as they are making about 10 per game, which places them second best among Sun Belt teams. In particular, keep an eye out for both Wells and Griffin, the team’s most lethal marksmen from behind the arc. This is a really big game for UT Arlington, not just because they are seeking to avoid an 0-2 start in conference play, but also they are 0-5 SU their L5 visits to Little Rock. I thought they might be the right side going into yday and will back them here today. 10* UT Arlington |
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01-02-21 | Oregon v. Iowa State -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (4:00 ET): Oregon is a team that should feel pretty fortunate to even be in the Fiesta Bowl as they only got to play for the Pac 12 Championship because Washington had to back out due to COVID-19 concerns. Making the most of their opportunity, the Ducks upset unbeaten USC in that penultimate game, 31-24 as a three-point underdog. However, don’t let that one win fool you. Oregon was very much a shaky team in the regular season and I successfully faded them twice - their two SU losses (to Oregon State and Cal). They were not all that impressive in their first three wins either. A win here for Iowa State would not only be an “exclamation point” on the job Matt Campbell has done in Ames, but also perhaps the program’s most notable bowl win EVER. So I don’t think motivation is going to be a problem for the Cyclones, who are coming off a tight 27-21 loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship where they were -3 in turnover margin, but outgained the favored Sooners. Iowa State is simply much better than any team Oregon has faced this year as the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 12, at least at the top. I’ve got four Big 12 teams, ISU being one, rated above every Pac 12 team in my personal power ratings. Oregon has had success as an underdog in the bowls previous to this, but Iowa State is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents since 2017 and 4-1 ATS its last five games as a favorite. Plus, I think the Cyclones are going to be the hungrier side come Saturday and I’m not talking Tostitos (old sponsor of the Fiesta Bowl). Major edge at QB for ISU with Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall should gash an Oregon defense that allowed a ton of rush yards when it faced Oregon State RB Jefferson. On the other side of the ball, the Ducks may be without their top RB (Vardell), which would not be good facing the #10 ranked run defense in the country. 10* Iowa State |
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01-02-21 | Ole Miss +9.5 v. Indiana | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
8* Ole Miss (12:30 ET): Some of the same trends I discussed for Auburn-Northwestern apply here. Whether or not Auburn covers (this is being written on New Year’s Day), I will follow the trends here for Ole Miss-Indiana in the Outback Bowl. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. So I’m taking the points with the Rebels. Indiana went 7-0 ATS in the regular season, the best such mark in the entire country. But they haven’t played a game since December 5th and will be without QB Michael Penix Jr. In two games without Penix, the IU offense has managed just 115 and 130 yards passing. I can’t say that Ole Miss has a stout defense, but not facing Penix is a break. There’s a lot of talk about the Hoosiers having a “chip on their shoulder” here as they felt they should have been selected for the Fiesta Bowl. But they’ve also lost their last five bowl games, not having won one since 1991. Ole Miss has its starting QB Matt Corral, who threw for nearly 3000 yards and 27 touchdowns in the regular season. Corral won’t have his two top WRs here, but he didn’t have them in the regular season finale vs. LSU either and the Rebels still scored 48 points. This was the SEC’s third best scoring offense (40.7 PPG) and they led the conference in rushing (217.7 YPG). Indiana saw only one good offense this year, Ohio State, and gave up 42 points in that game. The Rebels faced a much harder schedule and will be motivated here for their first bowl since 2016 and first under Lane Kiffin. 8* Ole Miss |
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01-02-21 | Missouri v. Arkansas -4.5 | Top | 81-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
8* Arkansas (12:00 ET): So this is a battle of my most overrated (Missouri) and underrated (Arkansas) teams in the country. The road team comes in ranked #12 while the home team is unranked. My own personal power ratings say it should be just the opposite. That’s something that does not happen very often. Sure enough, I just cashed Arkansas in their first road game of the season (at Auburn) Wednesday. That same night I faded Mizzou as they got blown out (at home) by Tennessee for their first loss of the season. Now I can take advantage of the power rating discrepancies on both teams in the same game! It speaks volumes that an unranked team would be favored over #12, even at home. Of course, I’m not surprised as I heavily touted Arkansas earlier in the week. The Razorbacks are 9-0 SU with an average margin of victory approaching 27 PPG. Every win this season has been by double digits. My power ratings call them a Top 15 team in the country. They are a senior-laden team that continues to get the job done defensively, allowing an opposing field goal percentage of just 37.7. Of course, the Hogs are pretty good at the offensive end as well with four straight games of 85 or more points. Meanwhile, Missouri has had trouble scoring in B2B games. Even before getting held to just 53 by Tennessee, the Tigers could only muster 54 in a nail-biter over Bradley (won that game by 1 point). Both those games were in Columbia. This will be just the 2nd “true” road game for the Tigers and easily the toughest yet. When these teams met here in Fayetteville last season, the Razorbacks held Mizzou to just 4 of 21 shooting from three-point range. The Tigers’ 3-pt shooting has gotten no better this year (only 27.3%!) and Arkansas just allowed Auburn to shoot better than 50% from behind the arc and still won by 12. Mizzou is getting too much credit for its upset of Illinois. They were picked to finish 10th in the SEC in the preseason poll. 8* Arkansas |
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01-01-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have that very embarrassing loss to Dallas on their resume, but are 4-0 otherwise. They’ve looked very good in those four wins, the last two both coming by 23 point margins. They’ve also won on the road against the Lakers and Nuggets. Utah is a curious 0-2 SU at home thus far as they just lost here to Phoenix last night, 106-95. The Jazz are very lucky that they’re not coming into this game on a three-game losing streak as they managed to beat OKC 110-109 three days before losing to the Suns. If you recall, I faded Utah when it hosted Minnesota the day after Christmas. That ended up being a 116-111 loss (for the Jazz) as 9.5-point favorites with them trailing most of the way. Then came the 1-point win at OKC, another game they trailed for a good portion of the game (GW shot came w/ 7 secs remaining). Last night vs. Phoenix, the Jazz just “didn’t have it” as they trailed the entirety of the final three quarters. Playing without rest against an opponent the caliber of the Clippers is a really tough spot for New Year’s Day. The Clips have lost five in a row here in Salt Lake City, a streak that dates back to 2017. So they should come in properly motivated. Remember that Kawhi Leonard missed the 51-point loss to Dallas, but is now back. He had 28 points in a 128-105 win over Portland on Wednesday night. Leonard is one of five double digit scorers right now for LA, another being Paul George, who went for 23-10-7 against Portland. George has led the team in scoring in three of the five games thus far. This line is a steal. 10* LA Clippers |