Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-16 | TCU -20.5 v. SMU | Top | 33-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
8* TCU (8:00 ET): At 0-3 ATS so far, TCU has clearly failed to impress in the early part of the season. They struggled w/ a FCS opponent (South Dakota) in the opener (won 59-41) and then lost outright at home to Arkansas (41-38, -10) the following week. Last week was probably their "best" effort to date, a 41-20 win over Iowa State, but they still failed to cover the 24.5-pt spot. This week, the Horned Frogs hit the road for the 1st time to play in-state rival SMU. While the spread is again large, I think it offers substantial value considering that the lookahead line for this matchup was nearly four touchdowns and now we can lay less than three. Look for Gary Patterson to get the most complete performance out of his team to date and for TCU to win this one "going away." Lay the points. SMU is off a bit of a rocky showing against a FCS foe themselves. Last week, they hosted lightly regarded Liberty and won only 29-14. That game was much closer than the final score indicated as the Mustangs scored 10 points in the final minute. After kicking a FG to go up 22-14 (still one-score game), they returned an INT for a TD w/ 18 seconds left. That play did affect the ATS outcome for some bettors. The fact that Liberty turned the ball over four times in that game and were still "tooth and nail" is not a good sign at all for SMU here. Second year HC Chad Morris figures to have this team improved once the AAC portion of the schedule hits, but this is a big step up in class. Consider that LY saw the Mustangs head into Ft. Worth as 37-point underdogs and lose 56-37. The defense allowed 720 yards(!) and while it actually did get close for awhile, TCU initially led 42-17. Even after factoring in the change in venue, the spread should not have moved this much. Overall, SMU has lost the L3 meetings w/ TCU by an average of 35.3 points per game. That includes 48-17 in '13 and 56-0 in '14. Despite TCU's defense allowing a ghastly 34 PPG thus far, I see a team that's getting better. Despite trailing much of the way against Arkansas, they actually outgained the Hogs in that game, 572-403. A -2 turnover margin really hurt them there (one INT returned for a TD). Against ISU last week, they led 41-10 early in the 4Q. Clearly, there's nothing wrong with this offense (46 pts & 572 yards per game!) and I think the defense makes enough stops to cover this spread w/ "room to spare." 8* TCU |
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09-22-16 | Texans v. Patriots | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
10* 1st Half Houston (8:25 ET): Please note that this is a 1st half play only where I am taking the Texans. As you know, I "rolled the dice" and went w/ the Patriots as a 1H play in Wk 1. Despite starting Jimmy Garoppolo against the heavily favored Cardinals, the Pats went into the halftime break w/ a 10-7 edge and wound up taking the game outright, 23-21. In Wk 2, Garoppolo and the team looked even better against the division rival Dolphins. The QB threw three first half TD passes en route to New England entering halftime w/ a massive 24-3 edge at home. But, as you now know, all did not end well. Garoppolo suffered a shoulder injury and while the Pats had a big enough lead to hold on for a (31-24) victory, that means rookie Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starter's role for Week 3. Clearly, the Tom Brady suspension could now catch up with the Patriots. Yes, Garoppolo came in and played remarkably well the last two weeks. But consider that he had a full summer to prepare for Arizona. Miami is a bad team. Now you're asking a rookie to make his first career start, on a short week no less, against a good defense. Through two games, the Texans have allowed just 26 points (3rd best) and have the most sacks (9). They have JJ Watt, in case you forgot. Last week, this defense held Kansas City to just a field goal in the first half. The Chiefs first four drives resulted in eight yards - total. In other words, don't expect Brissett to have the same kind of initial success that Garoppolo did. While the rookie did complete six of nine pass attempts for 92 yards last week, the offense scored only a single TD under his direction. Obviously, New England's record under Belichick when priced as an underdog must be respected here. (Note: I'm not convinced they will close as a dog). But I still believe Houston will go into halftime with the lead. The defense has not given up a touchdown in six quarters. The offense, with Brock Osweiler at the helm, should be able to move the ball on a Patriots defense which is w/o the suspended Rob Ninkovich. Note Ryan Tannehill was able to throw for nearly 400 yds last week w/ 3 second half TD's against NE. I don't buy the reports that Garropolo might play here. That's a total decoy. I look for Brissett to struggle and the Texans to lead at the half. 10* 1st Half Houston |
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09-22-16 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +10 | Top | 26-7 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
8* 1st Half Georgia Tech (7:30 ET): Please note that this is a 1st Half play only where I'm taking the points w/ Georgia Tech. The story here is that the home team has won 10 of the last 11 meetings in this ACC rivalry. That would seem to favor the Yellow Jackets right there, but the oddsmakers certainly don't, installing them as big home underdogs for this Thursday night matchup. Normally, I might be "all over" the home dog in this situation, but I don't think GT is getting enough points - for the game that is. The 1st half line, on the other hand, offers strong value as the number is more than half the full game line. Take the points here as I think the Yellow Jackets certainly keep this one close for a half and may very well go into the break w/ the outright lead! Certainly, this first half won't be as easy here as it was last week for #5 Clemson. A 45-0 lead at the break led to overmatched South Carolina State simply yelling "mercy" and the teams elected to play a shortened second half (12 min quarters). It ended up being a 59-0 victory for the Tigers. However, I'm not sure that game does much for a team that largely "sleepwalked" past its first two opponents. It was an ugly opener against Auburn (won 19-13) on the road, followed by a game w/ Troy (won 30-24) that was way too close for comfort. The respective scores at halftime of those games were: and 10-3 and 13-10. Bobby Dodd Stadium has not been kind to Clemson in the past as they haven't won here in Atlanta since '03. It's also the site of their last regular season loss (2014), a game where QB DeShaun Watson (then a freshman) tore his ACL. Then, there's also the matter that this is a giant lookahead spot for the Tigers; they have a top 10 showdown w/ Louisville looming next week. Georgia Tech turned in a very complete performance last week in dismantling Vanderbilt 38-7 as six-point favorites. They outgained the Commies 511-275 in the process. That brings GT to 3-0, so they've already matched LY's total # of wins. Paul Johnson's team was an obvious candidate to improve this season as LY saw them suffer a mind-blowing five losses by a TD or less. They've already won one close game this year, over an improved BC squad. The big stunner in LY's tussle w/ Clemson was GT's triple option being held to only 77 yds rushing! This year, the offense appears to be a bit more dynamic w/ the passing attack seemingly much improved. Also, the Yellow Jackets defense ranks 7th nationally in scoring (10.3 PPG allowed) and after giving up a TD on the opening drive LW, they held Vandy to just 200 total yds the rest of the way. I see the home dog making a game of this for at least a half - if not longer. 8* 1st Half Georgia Tech |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -117 | 124 h 28 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:30 ET): Incredibly, this marks just the third time in the L23 games where the Bears will be a favorite! They went 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS at Soldier Field last season. None of that may sound encouraging, but how about some long overdue progression to the mean? Philadelphia and its rookie QB Carson Wentz are nowhere near as good as they looked last week in a 29-10 win and cover over the moribund Browns. I'll hold to the the belief that the Eagles will end being one of the very worst teams in this league. Chicago, on the other hand, is a team that I have improving in the second year under HC John Fox. It starts w/ better play at home. With this line move, you'll want to note that it came despite the ticket count actually being in favor of Philly. That's a signal to me of "sharp money" liking the Monsters of the Midway in this one. So do I. Lay the points. Eagles fans had to be happy w/ what they saw out of Wentz in Week 1. But, again, keep in mind that 278 yard, two TD performance came at the expense of a terrible Browns' defense. Chicago's defensive performance from Week 1 (against Houston) won't necessarily turn any heads, but they did allow only 23 pts and had the lead going into the fourth quarter. Almost certainly, the Bears will give Wentz more problems than the Browns did. This is also Wentz's first road start. I think the accolades drawn by the rookie QB over the past seven days are a bit of an overreaction. Wentz is already down one key receiver, that being TE Zach Ertz. This was not a strong receiving corps to begin with. The Chicago offense was a massive disappointment in Week 1. They gained only 258 total yards. But they also faced a strong Texans defense. QB Jay Cutler actually had a pretty good 2015, but loses OC Adam Gase. But he gains WR Kevin White, who missed all of his rookie season due to injury. White and Alshon Jeffery should form a strong receiving tandem. Cutler should look to exploit a weak Eagles secondary, which lost Leodis McKelvin to a hamstring injury last week. Remember that they had traded Eric Rowe to New England right before the start of the season. Bottom line is that I put little to no stock into Philly's win last week and believe the Bears are poised to be a lot better this year. 10* Chicago |
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09-18-16 | Packers -2.5 v. Vikings | Top | 14-17 | Loss | -103 | 52 h 7 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): I fully anticipate the Packers being the "squarest" of sides tonight. While usually I hold such plays in a bit of disdain, there is no disputing the Vikings were fortunate winners in Week 1 (beat Tennessee 25-16). There's also, in my mind, no disputing their likelihood of them regressing in 2016 after a surprise run to the NFC North crown last year. A now 15-3 ATS mark since the start of last season has to start being chipped away at. The QB situation is the obvious thing to point to when it comes to regression. While Mike Zimmer went w/ Shaun Hill in Wk 1, it will be Sam Bradford getting the nod tonight. I've never been impressed w/ Bradford. Much will be made of Minnesota opening its new home stadium tonght. But the numbers don't lie; NFL teams typically see homefield advantage decline in the first two years of a new stadium. Remember they're now have to adjust to the new setting as well. Lay the points. The Vikings were shut out in the 1H last week, but rallied to beat the Titans on the back of TWO defensive scores. The Hill-led offense never did get in the end zone and Adrian Peterson was held to only 31 yards rushing on 19 carries. As a Tennessee backer in that game, the result was quite frustrating. The step up in class for Minnesota here is pretty significant. With Teddy Bridgewater at the helm LY, they often struggled to beat the good teams on the schedule. Now having turn to Bradford, I don't see that "knock" against them changing This is a bit of a revenge spot for the Pack, who lost in Week 17 here in Minnesota last year, a game that decided the division. GB comes into 2016 as the favorite to win the North though and actually projects to be favored in every game this season. I think the short number is a tremendous value here. Yes, they were held under 300 total yards LW vs. Jacksonville and failed to cover (by one-half point.) But note Minnesota is 0-2 SU/ATS as a home dog of three points or less the last two seasons. Aaron Rodgers going against Bradford is obviously a major edge here for the Pack and the GB offense is going to be tons better this year w/ a healthy Jordy Nelson back in the lineup. 8* Green Bay |
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09-18-16 | Falcons +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:25 ET): The Falcons lost outright as favorites last week (31-24 at home to Tampa Bay). Meanwhile, Oakland won outright as a road dog (35-34 at New Orleans). Those disparate results are likely to make the Silver and Black the more attractive option to the public, but I'll use that misconception to my advantage and take the points here. It was the slightest of edges in total yards for the Dirty Birds LW (374-371) while the Raiders were outgained by the Saints, 507-486. A defense that gives up that many yards certainly has to be viewed as shaky in the chalk role and it's not as if Oakland is favored regularly. In fact, the previous two seasons have seen them go only 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS laying points. They were 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in non-conference games prior to last week's last second win. Atlanta's defense had its own issues against Tampa Bay. But I still have faith that HC Dan Quinn (former DC in Seattle) will turn this unit around. The pass rush, or rather a lack of it, has long been the albatross for this franchise and they failed to record even a single sack last week. But they'll be facing a pretty weak offensive line in this matchup and the Raiders are down their starting right tackle. I think the Atlanta offense will have little difficulty moving the ball here. Facing the prospect of an 0-2 SU start, this game is a real referendum on QB Matt Ryan. As a dog, Ryan has eight outright wins the previous two seasons. Note the Falcons are 6-1 ATS the previous seven years in Week 2. Oakland has rarely been able to sustain success through the years. They are just 7-21-1 ATS their L29 games following an ATS win. I am not as high on this team as some others are as I think LY's jump from 3 to 7 wins indicates either regression or plateauing is on the horizon for 2016. I'm still not sold on QB Derek Carr. Remember the Raiders trailed the Saints by double digits in the 2H last week and twice needed a touchdown and two-point conversion in the 4Q. They won the game w/ a gutsy two-point try in the final minute. Had that not been successful, we'd be looking at this team and this game MUCH differently. 10* Atlanta |
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09-18-16 | Jaguars v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 48 h 2 m | Show |
8* San Diego (4:25 ET): Prior to Week 1, I went on the record and called for San Diego to be the most improved team in the league. I had them last week plus the points at Kansas City and while they did cover there (+6.5), a 33-27 overtime loss is one that stings. The Bolts had leads of 21-3 and 27-10 (in the 4Q!) that evaporated. The game really swung with a Keenan Allen injury (now out for the season - ACL). Likewise, Jacksonville covered, but lost, in Week 1. They played Green Bay tough, but ultimately came up short, 28-24 as 4.5-pt dogs. It's interesting that the public is on them here, as a short road dog. Pyrrhic half-point covers for both seem to have created a fairly even matchup, but I'm sticking to my guns here. I believe the Chargers and going to be much improved while the Jags are overrated. Lay the points. Philip Rivers looked every bit as good as I anticipated last week. He completed 25 of 36 passes and I still think he's good enough to overcome the Allen injury. Rivers has certainly had Jacksonville's number in the past w/ a five-game win streak (5-0 ATS) including LY's 31-25 road win. There, he completed 29 of 43 pass attempts for 300 yards and four touchdowns. The Chargers' 5-0 SU run against the Jags is their longest active win streak against any opponent. It only dates back to 2010 as the teams have played every year since then w/ the exception of 2012. The Rivers-led offense has scored 30+ pts in four of those games, including 33 in a 19-point victory the last time Jacksonville had to visit the West Coast. Again, I feel Jacksonville is being overvalued coming into the year. Yes, they played Green Bay tough last week. But that was at home. Yes, there are some nice individual pieces on this young team. But I do not believe they are set to take the leap. The offense ran for only 48 yards on 26 carries a week ago. That's awful. Again, it is odd to see an underdog receiving this much love from the public. It's created a situation where, to me, the value lies w/ the short home favorite. Again, it was a tough loss for SD last week. But for three quarters they looked like the better team compared to KC, who is a superior foe when compared to Jacksonville. 8* San Diego |
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09-18-16 | Saints v. Giants -4.5 | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -108 | 93 h 52 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Truthfully, I don't think the Saints will win many games this season. But last week I thought would be one of them. In the home opener, they led the Raiders by two touchdowns early in the second half. But their always suspect defense cost them another game by giving up 22 pts in the fourth quarter, including game-tying TD + 2pt conversion, then a game-winning TD + 2pt conversion. Losing a one-point game on a 2-pt try in the final minute really has to sting and now Drew Brees and company have to take their act out on the road (where they are never as strong). That leaky defense figures to be a problem facing a NY Giants offense that features Odell Beckham Jr. I look for the G-Men to win this one in a rout. The Giants are a team due for some luck to go their way. Week 1's 20-19 win over Dallas was a good start. Though slightly outgained by the Cowboys (328-316), the G-Men pulled out the rare close win. Games decided by 8 pts or less did not go this team's way LY (just 3-8 SU), thus a reversal of fortune is probably in the cards here. Maybe I'm in the minority, but I like the coaching change from Tom Coughlin to Ben McAdoo. I certainly like the offense to have a big game here considering the last two times the Giants have faced the Saints, they've scored total of 101 points! New Orleans gave up nearly 500 yards total last week. They did so while allowing 6.4 YPC rushing, a 63.2 completion percentage and 7.6 yards per pass, all horrible averages. Eli Manning should certainly have a big day here. Again, we all know how the Saints aren't as strong on the road. Last year, they went 3-5 SU away from the Superdome, but the key is that only one time did they score more than 24 points (27-21 win over the Colts). In five of the games, they were held to 20 pts or less. At home, they did beat the Giants in one of the wildest games of the season, 52-49. This go around, only the Giants will be able to sniff that point total. You really have to worry about the Saints' cornerbacks going against this Giants' receiving corps. Last week, NO lost its top corner Delvin Breaux to a broken leg. Beckham had eight catches for 130 yards in LY's meeting. By the way Breaux's replacement, rookie Ken Crawley, was the one that gave up the final TD against Oakland LW. 8* NY Giants |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): In true "Titan-like" fashion, Tennessee really let me down in Week 1 as they turned a 10-0 halftime lead over the Vikings (were getting 2.5) into a 25-16 loss and non-cover. This despite holding Adrian Peterson to only 31 yards rushing (on 19 carries) and the entire Vikings offense to no touchdowns. The game swung dramatically on a pair of Minnesota defensive TDs. As for Detroit, they went to Indianapolis and won 39-35 as two-point underdogs. The Lions were actually a pretty popular pick among sharps in the LVH SuperContest, thus it's not a surprise to see them now getting more support here in Week 2. But I think the line has been driven up too much and the Titans are a good play plus the points. I could easily see them taking this game straight up as well. At 4-12-1 ATS since the start of last season, Tennessee is really leaving its few remaining backers broke. But I'm not afraid to "get in at the ground floor" and "buy low" on this stock. This team absolutely should improve in 2016 provided QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy. As I conceded last week, Mike Mularkey is as uninspired as it gets as a HC choice, but the team will improve in spite of him. I absolutely believe they would have beaten Minnesota LW had it not been for a -3 turnover ratio. Again, the defense allowed no touchdowns last week and two of the Vikings' four field goals were long (45+ yards). Yes, there is some concern going against a better offense and QB (Matthew Stafford) here, but note those 39 points the Lions scored LW came at the expense of a very bad and banged up Colts defense. I think that the defenses that each team faced in Week 1 play a big role in handicapping this contest. Tennessee goes from facing a Vikings defense that will likely finish the season ranked in the top 10 to a Detroit stop unit that likely won't finish anywhere near that ranking. The Lions just gave up 400+ total yards w/ Andrew Luck completing 31 of 47 pass attempts. Another key here is the Lions laying so many points. They were favored just five times all of last season and only once by more than 3.5 points. I simply think this line is an overreaction to Detroit winning in Week 1 and Tennessee's SU record last year. The Titans are due! 8* Tennessee |
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09-18-16 | Chiefs v. Texans -2 | Top | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Certainly, the oddsmakers are giving some credence to the fact that the Texans now have Brock Osweiler as their starting QB. Last year, with the "immortal duo" of Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden at the helm, Houston checked in as a three-point home underdog for a playoff game vs. the Chiefs and promptly lost 30-0. Now, with Osweiler at QB, they're slight favorites for the rematch. The revenge angle can often times be overplayed, but I do think it matters here. Kansas City was very fortunate to win a 11th straight regular season contest LW as they rallied back from a 27-10 fourth quarter deficit (at home) to overcome the Chargers in overtime. They remain very banged up - on both sides of the ball. Yes, I played against the Chiefs LW and "lived to tell the story." For three quarters, truthfully, the game went just as I'd anticipated. They were being thoroughly outclassed by the Chargers and went into halftime down 21-3. That game really swung w/ the Keenan Allen ACL injury, which left the San Diego offense virtually impotent. Note it was the largest comeback in Chiefs history! But it shouldn't mask the fact that there are major injuries on both sides of the ball w/ this team. On offense, RB Jamaal Charles is again expected to be out. Two starting offensive lineman, both guards, are also looking they'll miss this game. Thus I'm not sure backup Spencer Ware can replicate his performance against the Chargers here against a better Texans defense. Speaking of defense, KC is w/o Justin Houston, possibly Tamba Hali and LB Sam Barrington left w/ a hamstring injury last week. The secondary is in questionable shape as well. So, yeah, this is a very injured team that was lucky to win its first game. Houston is also off a win, although theirs came by a more comfortable margin. Here at home, they beat the Bears 23-14 as six-point chalk. Yes, they too trailed going into the fourth quarter, but they also finished w/ a 344-258 edge in total yards. Osweiler looked good in throwing for 231 yds and two scores. The defense certainly did its job as well. The SU/ATS win improved the Texans' record as favorites to a very strong 13-2 SU/12-3 ATS the L3 seasons! Thus, as a short home favorite, they are a great value here as they go for DOUBLE revenge (also lost to the Chiefs in Wk 1 last year). Osweiler will be a difference maker against the banged up KC defense. 8* Houston |
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09-17-16 | UCLA -3 v. BYU | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 78 h 19 m | Show |
8* UCLA (10:15 ET): This is the second year in a row that these schools hook up. Last year, as 16-point chalk in Westwood, UCLA held on for a hard fought 24-23 victory. BYU came into that game unbeaten (as did UCLA, both were 2-0) off memorable last second wins over Nebraska and Boise State. This year, they are off a loss and a crippling one at that. Last week was the Cougars sixth straight loss in the "Holy War" with rival Utah and it came by a 20-19 score with them failing on a 2-pt conversion w/ 18 seconds to go. They lost despite SIX Utah turnovers. Note that were it not for a last second FG vs. Arizona in Week 1, BYU would be 0-2 right now. Yes, both games so far have come down to the final play (par for the course w/ BYU!) and this is the home opener. But compared to last year, the Cougs are getting far too much respect here in Provo. Lay the points! Again, BYU is lucky to be 2-0 ATS as the offense has scored only 37 pts. The defense has been the key, forcing eight turnovers total. But what if those TO's don't come? This matchup sees the BYU defense face the best QB it has seen - by far- this season. UCLA's Josh Rosen is destined to be a pro, coming off a freshman season where he threw for 23 TD passes and nearly 3700 yards. The first two games this year haven't been overly dominant, but last week saw the Bruins score 42 points on a rapidly improving UNLV team. It may not have been enough to cover a massive 27.5-pt spread, but I was impressed how Rosen completed passes to 13 different receivers. That will certainly keep the BYU defense guessing. As will emerging UCLA RB Soso Jamabo, who keyed a Bruins rushing attack that went for 219 yards last week. The Bruins' defense brings nine starters back from LY and should be much stronger this year. I thought that overall, the team outplayed Texas A&M (in College Station) in the season opener (468-442 edge in total yards), only to lose in overtime. Prior to that loss, UCLA was on a 7-2 SU run in non-conf away games. I just don't think that the BYU offense has enough firepower to keep pace here. I also think that the gap in talent is much wider than last year, but that's not reflected in the spread. 8* UCLA |
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09-17-16 | Ohio State v. Oklahoma +1.5 | Top | 45-24 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (7:30 ET): This shapes up to be one of my favorite plays of the entire season. Incredibly, Oklahoma is a home dog for just the third time ever under Bob Stoops. The last time was all the way back in the year 2000 (Stoops 2nd year in Norman!) when #1 Nebraska came to town and OU won that game outright 31-14 en route to winning the National Championship. I realize that OU did let us down big time w/ that loss to Houston in the season opener. But that was a de facto road game and I could argue that Houston is a better team that Ohio State! Yes, the Buckeyes have looked dominant their first two games, but Bowling Green and Tulsa aren't true prep for the least experienced team in all of College Football to head into Memorial Stadium where Stoops is now 97-8 SU (93%) all-time following LW 59-17 massacre of LA Monroe. Take the points (though I anticipate an OU win). You're likely to hear and read a lot about Urban Meyer's success in road games. Since coming to Columbus, he hasn't lost one. But there's a first time for everything and I simply cannot understand why the Buckeyes are favored here. Consider that the opening number (over the summer) had Oklahoma favored by six to win this game! As I said above, OSU came into 2016 as the least experienced team in the entire country. The NFL Draft hit them hard and left them w/ only SIX returning starters. Some say that allows Meyer to mold the team to his liking better, but I don't buy that. Last week, the Buckeyes didn't score an offensive TD until the 9:42 mark of the third quarter. Granted, the weather was rough, but that's no excuse against a team like Tulsa. On defense, they have already lost a starter along the line (Tracy Sprinkle) to a season-ending injury. Oklahoma has won outright the last four times it has been a dog. Again, you have to go back almost 16 years to find the last time this team was a dog in Norman. They entered 2016 w/ legitimate CFP hopes (made it last year), but a second loss in September would basically wreck the entire season. I don't see that happening. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon form arguably the best RB combo in the country. I like QB Baker Mayfield to play better here than he did vs. Houston. I love tight end Mark Andrews. Ohio State has gotten THREE touchdowns from its defense already this season; that kind of fortune is difficult to maintain. 10* Oklahoma |
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09-17-16 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -3.5 | Top | 29-16 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 10 m | Show |
8* Auburn (7:00 ET): For a road underdog, Texas A&M seems to be drawing an irregular amount of public support. I will concede that the home team is 0-4 SU (and ATS) in this SEC West rivalry with each of the last three seasons seeing the road dog come in and pull an outright upset. In fact, the last time A&M came calling to Jordan-Hare, they were 23-point dogs and won 41-38! Auburn returned the favor LY in College Station, winning 26-10 as seven-point pups, so I can see why people are thinking revenge and the points might be a good idea here. But that's also made the Tigers undervalued in this spot, at least from where I sit. Remember that they did play #3 Clemson tough here (lost only 19-13) and those Tigers are a much better team than A&M, who is just 4-11 SU/5-10 ATS taking points under HC Kevin Sumlin anyway. Lay the points here! I had Auburn plus the points against Clemson in the season opener. It was by no means the prettiest of covers, but they got the job done. Last week, as expected, brought a far more convincing effort w/ a 51-14 beatdown of Arkansas State (where HC Gus Malzahn worked in 2012). It's only been two games, but I've been impressed w/ this Tigers defense. Last week, they held the Red Wolves to just 66 yards rushing on 35 carries. I know it won't be that easy here against A&M, but having already faced DeShaun Watson, they should be ready. Thanks to recruiting efforts, the Auburn defensive line is much better this year and I favor them over a relatively inexperienced A&M O-line. Offensively, it appears as if Malzahn has settled on Sean White at QB. White accounted for over 300 total yds last week and looked a lot more comfortable than he did vs. Clemson. Under Sumlin, A&M has lost only two times in September. Once was his very first game, also the first start of Johnny Manziel. The other was to #1 Alabama in 2013. Since that second loss, they've won 10 straight in September. But almost all of those have been home games. The Aggies didn't play a "true" road game in September last year and this will be the first of 2016. I put little stock in LW's 67-0 drubbing over Prairie View A&M (who always stinks) and in many ways the roles are reversed here for Sumlin's team from the Week 1 overtime win over UCLA. That game saw them come in unranked, but favored over the Top 25 opponent. Now, that's the case for Auburn. This is a situation that I often like to exploit w/ the public typically siding with the ranked team getting points. I think Auburn is better than last year when they won 26-10 in College Station and led by double digits most of the way. 8* Auburn |
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09-17-16 | Navy v. Tulane +5.5 | Top | 21-14 | Loss | -106 | 55 h 47 m | Show |
10* Tulane (7:00 ET): Matt Forte's alma mater is drawing some sharp action this week. That may seem a little odd to you, but Tulane certainly has a good defense that is built to keep them in games. In the season opener, the offense scored only three points, but they still covered easily (were getting more than two touchdowns) in a 7-3 loss at Wake Forest (who then pulled off an impressive outright win at Duke LW). Last week, as you might expect, went a lot smoother against Southern. The Green Wave drubbed the Jags 66-21 as a 31.5-pt choice and while that result may not mean much in the long run, at least it likely gave the offense enough confidence that they now think they can compete (and possibly beat!) a Navy team I feel is due to regress in 2016. Ride the (Green) Wave as they sink the Midshipmen! Take the points. Navy was under fire from some sharp action last week as well, but held on to beat UConn 28-24 in Annapolis. They actually ended up (just barely) covering the closing number of -3.5, but not w/o some good fortune as UConn was inept at the end of the game and let time run out while at the Middies' 1-yard line! A big reason why many (myself included) believe Navy is set for a "down year" is the massive exodus of experience from LY's 11-win squad. Four-year starter Keenan Reynolds was perhaps the program's best player since Roger Staubach and he's gone. Incredibly, HC Ken Niumatalolo returned only ONE starter on the offensive side of the ball. In the season opener, he literally had to find a QB out of the stands (not making this up!). It didn't matter b/c the opponent was Fordham (Navy won 52-16), but expected starter Tago Smith is now done for the year w/ a torn ACL. That leaves Will Worth to make his first career road start here. Worth played okay LW vs. UConn, but only accounted for 174 total yds on eight pass attempts and 19 carries. When facing Navy, the triple option is typically an issue for most teams. It won't be for Tulane. That's because 1st year HC Willie Fritz runs virtually the same offense. The Green Wave ran for 437 yards last week thanks to their own change at QB, going to freshman Jonathan Brantley. But the key here remains the Green Wave defense, which has a ton of experience (eight starters back) and last week forced four turnovers. Last year saw Navy gain season lows in both rush yards (133) and total yards (291) against Tulane. That game was much closer than the 31-14 score seems to indicate as Tulane outgained them and what was a 10-7 game at halftime only got out of hand due to some turnovers (one a fumble at the Navy 1-yd line!) and the Green Wave offense being stopped on downs. While this is Navy's first trip to Yulman Stadium (built in 2014), they are just 1-8-1 SU all-time in the city of New Orleans. 10* Tulane |
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09-17-16 | Oregon v. Nebraska -3 | Top | 32-35 | Push | 0 | 72 h 43 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (3:30 ET): We have a Top 25 team taking on an unranked opponent here, but it's the latter that's favored. This is a situation I often like to exploit as the public sees the number next to the one team and falls into the trap of "they must be better." The reality of the matter is that often times the gap isn't what you might think. In this instance, you have #22 Oregon, a program that is no longer what it once was under Chip Kelly. But based on reputation (I can only assume) they've drawn the majority of the action for this week's cross-country tilt in Lincoln. I'm on the record as saying Nebraska will be much improved this season as last year's team was much better than it's 6-7 SU record (all but one loss by 8 pts or less). Saturday afternoon, I'll call for the biggest win of the Mike Reilly era. Lay the points. Reilly is of course quite familiar w/ the contingent from Eugene. He came from Oregon State where seven straight losses in the "Civil War" contributed to a rather unpleasant end to his 14 year tenure in Corvallis. Last season marked the only time in Reilly's coaching career he didn't face the Ducks. Needless to say, 2016 has gotten off to a much better start than 2015. Whereas last year saw Nebraska open 3-5 SU (all five losses by 5 pts or less) w/ a horrible Hail Mary loss to BYU in the home opener, this year they've rung up 95 points in a pair of blowout wins over Fresno State and Wyoming. I don't think Nebraska will have much difficulty moving the ball against an Oregon 'D' that has allowed 27 PPG so far to Cal Davis and Virginia. Last week, the Ducks surrendered 220 rush yards (not counting sack yardage) at over 7.0 YPC . Oregon did not cover last week's home game vs. UVA as they won only 44-26 laying 24 points. They did have a chance to cover late, but a TD run was called back. I've already touched on the Ducks' defensive issue and with the offense you have to wonder how a first year FBS starter (transfer Dakota Prukop) will perform in his first "true" road game. Oregon might be 8-1 ATS L2 years in road games (4-0 LY as a dog), but as I said earlier, this program isn't to be feared like it once was. The Cornhuskers are "due" for a marquee win. They get it here. 10* Nebraska. |
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09-17-16 | Florida State -1.5 v. Louisville | Top | 20-63 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 4 m | Show |
10* Florida State (12:00 ET): This line has bounced around during the week, but I find the 'Noles to be a great value as a short favorite. Louisville is drawing a lot of attention for a couple of blowouts against overmatched opponents, spots where historically HC Bobby Petrino has been at his best. Charlotte and Syracuse were no different as the Cardinals rang up 132 points and 1508 total yards on them! But this is a massive step up in class where Petrino teams typically fail. In fact, if the last two years are any indication, Petrino should be worried about his own defense here. Florida State has scored 42 and 41 pts against them, gaining 265 and 177 yards above what L'ville allowed per game defensively those seasons. Overall, the Seminoles are 14-2 SU vs. Louisville. I have FSU making the CFP this year; thus I'll take them here. I rolled w/ the Noles in their season opener. Obviously, I expected them to win comfortably, but they really impressed me in how they turned a 28-13 halftime deficit into a 45-34 win. For the record, I believe Ole Miss is a better team than Louisville. Last week was in essence a bye week in Talahassee as they drew Charleston Southern (and an undermanned Charleston Southern at that), who was down TEN starters. That made for a 52-8 win where the Noles scored on their first 13 possessions! Now, this is a "true" road game (played Ole Miss in Orlando), but I wouldn't be too concerned about that as their only two road losses the L3 years came via a blocked FG return and to the #1 ranked team in the country at the time (Clemson). Keep an eye on this line as FSU has been a dog just TWICE in the last five years. So, again, great price especially w/ Jimbo Fisher being 3-0 SU all-time in ACC games where both teams come in ranked in the top 10. All the headlines this week have gone to Louisville QB Lamar Jackson, who has gotten himself into Heisman consideration after already accounting for 13 TD's in the first two games. But that came against two very bad defenses. The stop unit Jackson will face here is one that has allowed less than 20 PPG in five of Fisher's six years here. Though safety Derwin James is out, FSU is loaded enough through the 2-deep that they'll be fine. I won't be surprised if the best QB in this game turns out to be FSU's freshman Deondre Francois, who stepped into an excellent situation being surrounded by 10 returning starters. Francois certainly didn't look like a freshman in throwing for 400+ yards in his debut vs. Ole Miss. Louisville's defense allowed 426 total yds LW vs. Syracuse. FSU RB Dalvin Cook went for 223 total yards LY vs. them. Calling for the better team to win straight up is not a stretch in my estimation! 10* Florida State |
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09-17-16 | Temple +9 v. Penn State | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 48 h 47 m | Show |
8* Temple (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points for Penn State to lay against an in-state rival that beat them SU last year, particularly coming off what was (to PSU) a more meaningful in-state rivalry game last week, which ended up being a heartbreaking defeat at Pitt. That 42-39 loss (closed as 3-pt dogs) saw the Nittany Lions rally all the way back from a 28-7 first half deficit, only to ultimately come up short. Thus, even as the favorite here, PSU won't be lacking for motivation (revenge!), especially on a Saturday afternoon home game where they'll honor Joe Paterno. But given LY's result, which was a 27-10 Temple win as six-point dogs, it's pretty tough to justify this number. Sure, the oddsmakers have adjusted slightly. But not enough in my estimation. As far the Owls' own motivation is concerned, let's not forget HC Matt Rhule is a PSU alum. Take the points. Last year's outright win by the Owls snapped a streak of 31 consecutive losses to the Nittany Lions. It was the season opener and set in motion a historic season in Philly w/ Temple racing out to a 7-0 SU start and Top 25 ranking. They finished 10-4 SU and won the AAC East Division (lost bowl). They're one of those teams clearly earmarked for regression in 2016, but they can still lose close here and bring home the cash. I don't know if anyone foresaw the shocking start this season got off to w/ a 28-13 outright loss to Army as 14-pt home favorites. A -3 turnover differential was the story there. The Owls did bounce back LW by drubbing Stony Brook 38-0 (allowed just 133 total yds). That's a virtual bye week, another big advantage for Temple given what PSU faced last week. There was nothing flukish about LY's 27-10 win by the Owls at Lincoln Financial Field. They outgained the Nittany Lions 317-183 and the defense dominated w/ 10 sacks. It's said that Penn St HC James Franklin "likes" this year's QB Trace McSorley better than the disposed Christian Hackenberg, but we'll see how McSorely does against this defense. Penn State also has Michigan on deck next week. I just think that given the situation, I would not want to be laying more than a score w/ the Nittany Lions, who have already lost outright four times in Franklin's tenure. Temple, meanwhile, is 15-7 ATS as a dog under Rhule including 5-2 last year (four outright wins). 8* Temple |
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09-16-16 | Arizona State v. Texas-San Antonio +19.5 | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
8* UTSA (9:00 ET): TX-San Antonio saw HC Larry Coker surprisingly step down after a 3-9 SU finish LY. The Roadrunners certainly challenged themselves w/ a non-conference slate of Arizona, Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Colorado State. While they lost all four of those games, they covered two and went on to go a respectable 3-5 SU in C-USA. New HC Frank Wilson didn't have to wait very long for his first win w/ the team beating Alabama State 26-13 in the season opener. But they followed that up w/ a 23-14 loss at Colorado State, who had just been humiliated by rival Colorado the week earlier. While, on paper, things don't look great again for UTSA this week, on paper is not where they play the games. The Roadrunners are catching Arizona State off an upset of Texas Tech last week (in Tempe) and I think are a bargain getting all these points. This will be the fourth year in a row that UTSA is welcoming in a Power 5 conference school. They've yet to win in the three previous tries, but came closest two years ago against Arizona (lost only 26-23), who is obviously ASU's main rival. Despite the presence of RB Jarveon Williams, the Roadrunners ran for just one yard on the ground LW. Williams' was a 1,000+ yd back a year ago and has to do better here. Fortunately, he and the rest of the UTSA offense will be going up against an ASU defense which permitted over 600 total yards LW vs. TT. In their game vs. Colorado State LW, the Roadrunners were close most of the way, never trailing by more than 10 pts and it was a one-score game until a late Rams' FG (w/ 2:24 remaining) put things out of reach. I'm not as high on Arizona State as some others. The Sun Devils were a massive disappointment last year (6-7 SU finish), something I called for. While I expect improvement for 2016 (see last week), they do only have four returning starters on offense and 10 total. Most will be in awe of LW's point total and Kalen Ballage scoring eight touchdowns, but all that's done is serve to inflate the line. ASU was not a road favorite a single time last season; they've actually lost seven of their last eight "true" road openers straight up. 8* UTSA |
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09-16-16 | Baylor v. Rice +31 | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 52 h 4 m | Show |
10* Rice (8:00 ET): Certainly, the odds do not cast a favorable light on Rice's chances Friday night against Baylor. But speaking of lights, ESPN will be on hand here and that should lead to the 30+ pt underdog being a little bit more motivated than usual here. It has certainly been a disappointing start to the season for David Baliff's Owls, who have lost by DD margins to both Western Kentucky (46-14) and Army (31-14). But both of those games did take place on the road. I was really disappointed by LW's result as I had the Owls plus the points and they even jumped out to an early 7-0 over the Cadets! But a week after being unable to stop the WKU passing attack, the defense was pretty impotent against Army's running game. Despite those two very disappointing setbacks, this is a lot of points and I'm going to take them! Baylor obviously had as tumultuous an offseason as any program in America. Rampant scandal and mismanagement resulted in the firing of Art Briles, the architect of the entire program here in Waco. Now Jim Grobe is stepping into a pretty brutal situation. Neither Northwestern State (55-7) nor SMU (40-13) were able to provide the Bears much resistance in the first two games, but it's notable that BU fell short of the oddsmakers' projections in both games. Ranked 21st in the country, I believe Baylor is getting a bit too much respect still. They were tied w/ SMU 6-6 at the half LW (trailed 6-0 at the end of the 1Q!) and RB Shock Linwood is battling a neck strain, leaving him at less than 100 percent. The interview that Briles gave ESPN last week certainly did this program no favors and could serve as a distraction for the team. With the Big 12 opener on deck (vs. Ok State), this is a total lookahead for the Bears' players. As for Rice, there is no lookahead here as this will be their first time hosting a ranked foe since 1997. Yes, they are 0-7 SU/ATS the L7 years vs. Baylor, including last year's humiliating 70-17 loss in Waco where they gave up almost 800 total yards. But consider the Owls were "only" 33-pt dogs for that game, on the road. That result has created a ton of value for this year's encounter and I'm going to exploit that as I know Rice is better than its shown the first two weeks. 10* Rice |
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09-15-16 | Jets v. Bills +1 | Top | 37-31 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:25 ET): There's been a major line move here for this AFC East battle. The Bills, who opened as two-point favorites and were quickly bet up to -3, are now 1-pt dogs (at home) due to the uncertain status of WR Sammy Watkins. Classic overreaction by the public, in my opinion. The Bills swept the Jets last year, winning both games by the same 22-17 score. The second cost the Jets a playoff berth (game was played Week 17), so obviously some will be fascinated by the revenge angle here, especially considering Buffalo has actually won and covered the last five meetings. Of course, we saw how the big revenge angle played out last Thursday in Carolina-Denver. For the record, some are anticipating Watkins playing here, but regardless if he does or not, these Thursday night games always seem to favor the home team on a short week. I'm taking Buffalo at a tremendous price. I've earmarked the Jets for regression in 2016, so I was not the least bit surprised to see them lose in Week 1 (at home) to the Bengals. They were outgained 381-340 in the 23-22 loss, which did come on a last second FG. But the offense never really got the passing game going (188 yards), which was my concern w/ Ryan Fitzpatrick coming into camp late following an extended holdout. Quite frankly, I'm stunned to see the Jets get this much love from the public. As a "true" road favorite LY (excluding London game vs. Miami and neutral site game vs. Giants), they were 0-3-1 ATS, losing outright three times! One of those was obviously the final game at Buffalo. Now the Bills' offense was pretty putrid in its own right (just 160 total yds!) in the 13-7 loss to Baltimore in Week 1. Many, myself included, had high hopes for this unit coming into 2016. At home, against a familiar foe, I expect QB Tyrod Taylor to play much better this week. The silver lining of last week was Rex Ryan's defense looked a lot better than it did in 2015. They allowed just 83 yards rushing on 28 carries, which is key here as the Jets' passing game is not dynamic. The Bills also covered their final four regular season home games last year. If they can beat the Jets on the road in a Thursday night game (did so last year), then they can do the same at home this year. 10* Buffalo |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7.5 | Top | 40-16 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:30 ET): This is a game I actually circled in the offseason. Fool me once, Houston, shame on you. Fool me twice, then I guess it's shame on me. The now 6th ranked Cougars caught me by surprise when they knocked off Oklahoma in the season opener, 33-23, as 13.5-pt underdogs. Note that game really swung on a missed FG that was returned for a TD by UH and also I underestimated what a big deal it would be for them to play in NRG Stadium (just five miles off campus). That makes this the first "true" road game of the campaign. Houston's only loss last year occurred out on the road, at UConn as 10-pt chalk. Yes, I know QB Greg Ward Jr did not play in that loss, which ended up costing the team a shot at the CFP. But Ward also sat out last week due to a sore shoulder. The team obviously didn't need him to beat Lamar (won 42-0), but him being less than 100% means trouble against a Cincy squad that is 27-5 SU at home the L6 seasons. Take the points. I'm pretty high on Tommy Tuberville's Bearcats this year. This team was much better last year than it's 7-6 SU record. Though Houston, Navy and Temple all won 10+ games and Memphis (9-4) had a program-defining season, it was actually Cincinnati that led the entire AAC in YPG differential at +167.4! The biggest problem for the Bearcats in 2015 was turnovers. They were -19 in that department, but already we've started to see that number start to turn through two games this year. They were +5 in TO's LW at Purdue, a 38-20 win that I thought was impressive as a lot folks were actually betting AGAINST the Bearcats. It was impressive in the sense that it was the program's first road win over a Big 10 school in six decades. They also led Purdue 31-7 in the third quarter. Getting Cincy at this price is simply a tremendous value. They're a perfect 2-0 ATS the L2 years as a home dog, including an outright upset of Miami FL (on a Thursday night) last season. They also cashed as nine-point dogs at Houston LY (lost 33-30) while outgaining them 589-427. Houston has not beaten Cincy B2B times since a five-game win streak that ended in the early 1970's. The L3 meetings between these two have been decided by a total of 18 points. The Bearcats may be down their top six pass catchers from last season, but LW vs. Purdue (512 yds) marked the NINTH time since the start of last season that the offense gained at least 500 total yds. I won't go so far as to call for the outright upset here, but it's definitely a possibility as Thursday night home teams almost always come ready to play! 10* Cincinnati. |