Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-26-16 | UMass +7.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 40-46 | Win | 100 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
10* UMass (11:59 ET): This is the classic overlay w/ a team trying to become bowl eligible. Hawaii is 5-6 SU and needs a win here to get to the postseason. I really respect what 1st year HC Nick Rolovich has done out on the Island, but the Warriors have failed to cover their last four games, a stretch that has seen them win SU just one time - last week by 1 (14-13) at Fresno State. So the idea of them being asked this much weight, even given the circumstance, doesn't seem right. Admittedly, UMass has not looked good of late and is a 2-9 team. But the players should treat this trip as "their bowl game" and I'll take the points. One of UMass' two wins came against FCS Wagner. That was their only home game in the final five weeks of the season. Trips to Tulsa and BYU the L2 weeks have predictably gone poorly, but those are good teams. The Minutemen also have the distinction of playing South Carolina tough earlier this year, in Columbia, as they lost that game by only six points. Going from being a MAC team to an Independent probably was not a wise decision for this program (losing out on that Western Michigan money!) and having 10 starters back essentially ensured this would be a rebuilding year for HC Mark Whipple. But his offense has averaged nearly 6.1 yards per play the L3 weeks and I think will be able to move the ball against a Hawaii defense that gives up yards in bunches (6.3 YPP). Hawaii is still getting accustomed to the role of favorite. Last year, they went 0-4 ATS laying points and lost two of the games outright. This year, they are 0-3 ATS in that role after last week's non-cover. So that's 0-7 ATS as chalk the L2 years with four outright losses. This year, they lost outright to both UNLV and New Mexico. This is just the third time laying a TD or more against a FBS foe the L2 years. While the Warriors have won four straight home finales, three of them have been by seven points or less. Last year, they were outgained by their three non-conference visitors despite a 3-0 SU record. Over the L3 games, they are being outgained by roughly 150 YPG. Maybe Hawaii wins here, but if they do, it won't be by much. 10* UMass |
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11-26-16 | Wolves +14 v. Warriors | Top | 102-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (10:35 ET): This is the second game of a back to back for both teams and both won last night. Minnesota, per the usual, dominated a lesser foe. Golden State swept a home and home w/ the Lakers. Again, I'm bucking a little history here as the T'Wolves are an almost unfathomable 0-16 SU (3-13 ATS) off their last 16 double digit victories. I'm willing to guess that most of the spreads haven't been this high, however. Yes, that has plenty to do with the opponent, but I believe that a) the T'Wolves are much better than their actual record and b) the Warriors are due for a letdown after winning 10 in a row. Take the points here. Minnesota's five wins this year have come against Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando, Philadelphia and Phoenix. All were by double digit margins. They are 0-4 SU/ATS off the previous four victories, but in none of those instances were they getting this level of disrespect from the oddsmakers. I again lean on the fact that Tom Thibodeau's team has a positive point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. Last night marked yet another game where they held a double digit lead at one point in the game. That's been happening in almost every game for Minnesota. But usually they're blowing them. Last night was different, however, as they outscored the Suns 31-10 in the fourth quarter. Look for that result to build some confidence for this young team. All five starters scored in double digits last night, by the way. Minnesota played Golden State tough last season, even winning a game here in Oakland as 14.5-point dogs. There was also a narrow five-point loss at home. Overall, they've covered three in a row at Golden State and are 5-2 ATS against them the L3 seasons in all meetings. The Warriors are just 23-26 ATS the L3 seasons as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. It should be noted that GSW shot the ball ridiculously well in the two games against the Lakers (56%!) while Minnesota is coming off two poor shooting efforts (39%). Those should start to even out and while the Warriors are now back to #1 in my own personal power rankings, I do not see them covering tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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11-26-16 | Florida v. Florida State -7 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
10* Florida State (8:00 ET): The annual rivalry matchup w/ Florida State has become something of a burden for Florida the L2 years. Just like in 2015, they have the SEC Championship Game (vs. Alabama) on deck. Making matters even more difficult for the Gators this year is that they just played LSU last week, a game that had to be rescheduled (Hurricane Matthew) from October 8th. Jim McElwain's team was supposed to be coming off a tune-up vs. Presbyterian, but instead is left to dust itself off after winning a game 16-10 as 13.5-point dogs despite gaining roughly one-third of their total yardage (280 yards) on one play (lone TD). Florida State won this game last year, 27-2 in Gainesville, and should roll again. Lay the points. Florida's lone TD last week was a 98-yard pass in the third quarter. Other than that, they gained just 172 total yards from scrimmage while giving up 423. It was a goal line stand to close the game that preserved the victory after the Gators had kicked a pair of field goals in the final five minutes. Over its last games, UF is averaging only 15.3 points per game. These offensive woes are nothing new as LY they gained only 262 yds vs. FSU and were held out of the end zone entirely. That was the fourth time in the last six years that they were held to seven points or less by the Seminoles. Not surprisingly, Florida is 1-5 SU the past six years in this rivalry game. It will be Austin Appleby starting at QB tonight and I don't see him doing much. FSU was largely "written off" following the ugly, early season loss to Louisville. Last second losses to both North Carolina and Clemson will probably keep them out of a "New Year's Day bowl game," but this still remains one of the best teams in the country, at least in my opinion. They put up over 650 yards LW at Syracuse and the final score would have been even uglier than 45-14 were it not for four turnovers. The Seminoles seniors being honored here will be highly motivated by the chance to wrap up their careers at 8-0 vs. Miami and Florida. Meanwhile, Noles HC Jimbo Fisher no longer has to deal w/ LSU rumors. Florida, by the way, is still dealing w/ a number of injuries - on both sides of the ball. FSU should win this one by double digits. 10* Florida State |
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11-26-16 | South Carolina v. Clemson -24.5 | Top | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
10* Clemson (7:30 ET): Clemson finished last year's regular season unbeaten and ranked #1 in the entire country. While they won't finish w/ either of those distinctions in 2016, the path to a second straight playoff appearance remains clear. They'll be a double digit fave in their next two games, this and the ACC Championship. All they need to do is win both and they'll finish in the top four. While there may be no incentive to beat down rival South Carolina here, I nevertheless think they will. How do the lowly Gamecocks keep pace here? Clemson averages 38.5 points per game, South Carolina averages only 20.4 PPG, a number which drops to an unsightly 11.0 on the road. The public is making a huge mistake by throwing its support behind the underdog here. I will lay the points. For much of the last decade, this Palmetto State rivalry had gone South Carolina's way. But the tide has certainly turned with Dabo Swinney taking Clemson to new heights. The Tigers have won each of the L2 years, including a 35-17 beatdown the last time here in Death Valley. That marked the Gamecocks' largest loss to Clemson since '04. Last year, in Columbia, it was a much closer game w/ the Tigers winning only 37-32 as 20-point chalk. The situation was similar to tonight as Clemson knew it had the ACC Title Game on deck. But, a year wiser and now accustomed to the role of the "hunted," I think they'll fare better. Plus, they are at home. Yes, Pitt beat them here two weeks ago, but that experience should have them highly motivated today as they honor the Seniors. After having the "bubble burst," I was impressed that Clemson still rolled last week, beating Wake Forest 35-13. They outgained the Demon Deacons 456-197 and while they did not cover, note it was a 28-0 game early in the second quarter. I'm not too worried about the Tigers taking the "foot off the gas" here, however. By the way, this is just the second road game for South Carolina since September 24th! The last one was two weeks ago as they lost 20-7 at Florida. Their most points scored in any of the four road games this year is 14. Clemson has scored 35 or more points in seven of its last nine games. 10* Clemson |
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11-26-16 | Texas-Arlington v. Fordham +1.5 | Top | 67-63 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
8* Fordham (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is 3-3 SU so far and the results have essentially gone "according to script." Their three wins have all been against non-lined opponents - TX Southern, St. Francis-IL and Mount St. Mary's - while their three losses all came on the road, to Minnesota, Florida Gulf Coast and Arkansas. Here, they have opened as a slight favorite for another three-game trip, which begins in Fordham. The Rams lost their only road game so far, the season opener, 96-59 at East Tennessee State. But they've bounced back with five consecutive home wins, including routs of their only two lined opponents - Rider and St. Peter's. So I see some value in them only needing a SU win this afternoon. This is also a revenge spot for Fordham, who lost 77-72 (+3) at UT Arlington in the season opener last year. Despite shooting the ball better overall, including from three-point range, the Rams still lost by 5. The key was they only got to the free throw line six times. While they converted every opportunity from the charity stripe, it wasn't enough even w/ UT Arlington shooting only 57.1% there. That's because the Mavericks got to the line 21 times and their six extra makes were essentially the difference. I do not expect that discrepancy to exist today and if it does, it will be in favor of the Rams. Also, the teams both attempt about 21 FT's per game. Fordham is shooting 77% there while UT Arlington is 58.4%. The Rams have won 16 straight at home against non-conference competition, so you can see why this can be perceived as a great value. Defensively, this team seems to be much improved this year. While the class of opponent can be called into question, they've allowed an average of just 55.8 points the L4 games. Forcing turnovers has been huge as they are averaging over 11 steals per game. On both ends of the floor, Joseph Chartouny has led the way as he's averaged better than four steals per game during these L4 games while on the offensive end he's averaging 16.2 PPG on 56% shooting. Meanwhile, UT Arlington will likely be unable to continue its recent hot shooting from the L2 games (53.4 FG%), here on the road. 8* Fordham |
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11-26-16 | Duke v. Miami (Fla) -15 | Top | 21-40 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (3:30 ET): I know there's an outside shot Duke can still get to a bowl w/ a win, but I can't see them being too interested in this season ending trip to Coral Gables. The Blue Devils hopes of becoming bowl eligible were essentially dashed last week w/ a horrible 56-14 loss at Pittsburgh. That was a Pitt team primed for a letdown (were off upset of Clemson) no less. But they instead destroyed Duke w/ a 461-268 edge in total yds. It had been four straight seasons ending in a postseason trip under David Cutcliffe, so 2016 certainly represents a step back in Durham. Furthermore, other than a season-opening win over FCS NC Central, the Blue Devils other three wins have all been by seven points or less. They're really only a few plays away from an 11-game losing streak. Miami opened the year 4-0, only to lose the next four games. But they've since put together a three-game win streak w/ every win coming by double digits. That includes one over Pitt, 51-28. After whipping UVA 34-14 in Charlottesville, "The U" won 27-13 at NC State, a game they never trailed and outgained the Wolfpack 415-329. I'm sure they'd now love nothing more than to head into the bowl game riding a healthy four-game win streak. QB Brad Kaaya comes in just 146 yds shy of his third straight 3,000 yard season, something no other Miami signal caller has ever done. Also, he's just 275 yards shy of Ken Dorsey's all-time school record. I wouldn't worry too much about this pointspread as the 'Canes are 4-1 ATS the L3 seasons as a home favorite of 10.5 to 21 pts. Of course, the big talking point here will be LY's controversial finish where an eight-lateral play that shouldn't have counted won it for Miami, 30-27 as 12-pt underdogs. Obviously, as you can tell by the shift in pointspread, much has changed in one year's time. But that has as much to do w/ the fact Duke is just 6-11 SU since that loss. Miami is allowing just 16.2 PPG at home this season. Meanwhile, Duke is allowing 35.6 PPG on the road. I'm calling for a blowout here as Mark Richt's team rolls on to the postseason. 8* Miami FL |
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11-26-16 | Notre Dame +17.5 v. USC | Top | 27-45 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): I do believe that the expectation here is that Notre Dame, no longer bowl eligible, is going to be blown out by one of the hottest teams in the entire country. Because of that, we can take advantage of what I feel is an inflated spread. Consider that over the summer, this line was only USC -5. Obviously, the Fighting Irish are no longer worthy of that level of respect from the marketplace. But, despite perceptions, Brian Kelly's team has been more unlucky than bad in 2016. Every loss has been by eight points or less, four by three or less. So, I don't see any reason to expect them to be blown out for the first time now. USC has won seven in a row overall, covering in the last five wins, but after wrapping up the Pac 12 slate w/ an upset of previously unbeaten Washington and blowout of rival UCLA, I don't think they'll be gunning for the blowout either. Take the points. USC still can get to the Pac 12 Title Game, but only if Colorado loses at home to Utah Saturday night. That game takes place after this one is over and the reality is that USC's result has no bearing on next week's fate. It's not as if this team can make it to the College Football Playoff either; a 1-3 start all but guaranteed that. It should be noted that the Trojans' two wins by 14 pts or less during this streak of theirs came against Colorado and Washington, the only two decent foes they faced. I'm not saying Notre Dame is anywhere near that level, but this is more points than USC had to lay against either Utah State or Oregon. In fact, the only bigger spread they've faced was vs. Cal. The buzzards might be circling in South Bend w/ rumors of HC Brian Kelly's demise and the program forced to vacate wins due to an academic cheating scandal. But there's still plenty of talent on hand here, notably QB DeShone Kizer. This offense also ran for 200+ yds last week (now done so in B2B games) and led a good Virginia Tech team by 17 pts on two different occasions. They wound up losing 34-31, despite a slight edge in total yards. There are simply too many brutal losses to go through here, so many so, that an upset here could not erase them. But the bottom line is I expect the Irish to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Notre Dame |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss -9 | Top | 55-20 | Loss | -111 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* Ole Miss (3:30 ET): Much of the luster has been lost in this year's Egg Bowl as both Mississippi and Mississippi State check in w/ losing records. While I'm sure the 4-7 Bulldogs would love to cost the Rebels' bowl eligibility, that's just not the way I see things playing out here. The home team is 14-3 SU the L17 installments of this rivalry and that includes B2B wins as the lower ranked team in Oxford for Ole Miss. Last year, it was 38-27 Rebels in Starkville as one-point favorites. Last week, it was a struggle offensively (on the road) against a good defensive team in Vandy. This week, I see the Rebels' offense rolling en route to a DD win. Lay the points. Though not even bowl eligible, I still believe Ole Miss to be among the top 30 teams in the country. Coming off a 10-win season and having beaten Alabama B2B years, expectations were high for Huge Freeze coming into 2016. I faded them in the opener vs. Florida State, a game they led big early. They also came as close as anyone to beating Bama. A three-game gauntlet of Arkansas, LSU and Auburn derailed them, but last week was the head-scratcher as they got dominated by Vandy, 38-17 as 9.5-point favorites. Don't think for a second that these Ole Miss seniors won't be looking to atone for that performance on a day they will be honored. Mississippi State was also upset last week; albeit only as a one-point fave against Arkansas. Still, they gave up 58 points at home and that's not a good sign here. It was the second straight week the defense allowed 51+ and fourth time in the last five games they allowed at least 40 or more. So you can see why I think the Bulldogs defense is likely to be torched Saturday afternoon. Both Alabama and Arkansas were able to go for 600+ yards on them. While 2-5 in SEC play, Ole Miss is basically even in terms of total yardage. Mississippi State is being outgained by about 70 YPG in league play. So there's a definite reason that the Rebels are decided favorites here. Again, they need to win to become bowl eligible, so that and the chance to beat up on their rival, should be all the motivation they need. 8* Ole Miss |
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11-25-16 | Hornets -1 v. Knicks | Top | 111-113 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It's pretty shocking that the Knicks have a .500 record. They have been outscored by an average of 3.2 points per game this season and have a similar efficiency rating of -3.5. There's only a handful of Eastern Conference teams doing worse than those numbers currently. However, the Knicks have been able to post B2B wins over Atlanta and Portland to start the week to square their record away at seven wins and seven losses. This is a third straight home, but unlike the first two I see no edges for the Knickerbockers. Charlotte should come in plenty motivated (off three straight losses) and is the better team to begin with. They have started the year by cashing 7 of the 10 times they've been favorites. The number here is virtually irrelevant, but I expect the Hornets to win. New York had some minor edges heading into their past two games. It was an early start time Sunday vs. Atlanta and those always seem to favor the home side. They were catching the Hawks playing the second of B2B road games as well as Charlotte had just beaten them two days earlier. Then, it was a visit from a Portland team who is actually one of the few with a worse defensive efficiency rating than the Knicks. So, a 107-103 win wasn't too surprising there and note that was a close game (could have gone either way) throughout. I would still be concerned w/ the Knicks defense (26th in efficiency) and I won't even waste my breath touching on the offensive situation as Phil Jackson is still pressing the team to run his antiquated triangle scheme. Charlotte just played San Antonio really tough on Wednesday night. That was a home game on ESPN that saw them come up five points short as five-point underdogs. Eight Hornets actually scored in double figures there (good sign!), but a season high 16 turnovers really undid them. It was their third straight loss, but that stretch includes a trip to resurgent New Orleans as well. The home loss to Memphis was not ideal, but the Grizzlies have been playing well of late also. The key is all three of those teams are better than the Knicks, who are just 4-10 SU and ATS as home underdogs of three points or less. 10* Charlotte |
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11-25-16 | Cal Poly v. Illinois-Chicago +4.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
10* Illinois-Chicago (4:30 ET): This is the second game for both teams and of the day in the NIU Showcase (Northern Illinois), played here in DeKalb. Obviously, one stands to reason that UIC would have the edge in whatever crowd support is present Friday afternoon. But Cal Poly did just beat the host team of this event, 68-64 as 10-pt underdogs, Wednesday night. However, for that very reason, I'm calling for a letdown here from the Mustangs, who now curiously find themselves in the role of favorite for this second game here. UIC, meanwhile, looks to atone for a 91-80 loss suffered against Elon. The Flames have scored 80+ points in every game so far, making them the proverbial "tough out" taking points. Interestingly, Cal Poly had dropped its first two "true" road games of the campaign, losing at both Pepperdine and Arizona State by a combined 31 points. Wins over non-lined foes Cat St. Dom Hills and Bethesda weren't enough to impress me, so I actually faded them Wednesday vs. Northern Illinois. That obviously turned out to be a mistake as the Mustangs shot 51.1% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range, which was probably the difference in the game. After leading for much of the first half, Cal Poly wound up falling behind by six with just over eight minutes remaining in the game and it was looking as if I might have a shot at the cover. But, the Mustangs were able to mount an impressive rally from there and instead take the game outright. Note that they are just 9-14 ATS in the favorite role the past two seasons. UIC is 2-2 SU on the young season. Besides what happened Wednesday, their only other loss came by two points out in San Francisco. Overall, the Flames have shot the ball quite well thus far. They're at 47.7% from the floor. But they've struggled from beyond the arc, connecting at only 28.2%. Assuming Cal Poly "cools off" from outside (compared to their last game) and UIC has a modicum of improvement in that department, there's your difference maker right there. I just can't see Cal Poly winning B2B games out here in the "Land of Lincoln," so an outright upset is a distinct possibility here. 10* Illinois-Chicago |
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11-25-16 | Washington v. Washington State +6 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
8* Washington State (3:30 ET): Needless to say, it's been a very long time since the Apple Cup meant this much. What we have here is a de facto Pac 12 North Championship game as both Washington and Washington State are 7-1 in league play. But only UW is considered playoff worthy as admittedly Wazzu did lose its season opener to a FCS school. They also lost at Boise State. But after the 0-2 start, Mike Leach's team won its next eight games. Admittedly, they played only one ranked team during the win streak (Stanford). But "thanks" to LW's loss at Colorado, we are able to get some value w/ this squad. Knocking their rival out of CFP contention while at the same time taking the North is motivation enough for Wazzu, but they also have the matter of looking to erase a three-year losing streak to the Huskies. Take the points. I played LY's Apple Cup and took Washington in a 45-10 blowout in Seattle. But, it's important to note that QB Luke Falk did not play for WSU that day. Falk is obviously the team MVP as he's thrown for almost 4,000 yds this season and leads the country in both completions per game and completion percentage. But Falk isn't the only reason I'm taking the Cougars here. Two things seperate this team from past editions, those being an ability to run the ball and defense. They've run for more than their season average (132.5 YPG) each of the last four games. Also, the defense is #1 in the conference against the run (129.5 YPG) and just got back NT Robert Barber. By the way, the Wazzu offense averages 50.2 PPG at home. That scoring average should scare the Washington defense, which is w/o two key players, Joe Mathis and Azeem Victor. The Huskies getting dominated by USC, at home two weeks ago, was a real eye-opener for me. Sure, they were able to overwhelm Arizona State last week. But the Sun Devils' pass defense is the worst in the Pac 12 to begin with and was without two starters. I'm a little surprised that the line is so high here as the Huskies have failed to cover four of their last five games. They've had two close calls on the road thus far, at Arizona and at Utah, and this will be their toughest trip to date. 8* Washington State |
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11-25-16 | Arkansas v. Missouri +8 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 38 h 31 m | Show |
10* Missouri (2:30 ET): Mizzou comes off one of the most confounding results of this entire College season. They rolled up an incredible 740 yards of total offense, but due to four turnovers (among other things), they lost to Tennessee 63-37. It's been "that kind of year" in Columbia for 1st year HC Barry Odom as this will mark just the third time since '02 that the Tigers won't be bowling (3-8 SU/4-7 ATS). For their season finale, they welcome in Arkansas, who is off a minor upset in Starkville LW, 58-42. I know that the West Division's dominance over the East in the SEC is well documented, but the home team has taken both all-time meetings between these two. Something I find curious is that despite the perceived statuses of the respective programs, this is the 1st time that Arkansas will have been favored since Alcorn State on 10.1. Meanwhile, Missouri was actually the favorite in three of its previous five games. Take the points. Two weeks ago, Mizzou was a big play for me as they finally won an SEC game (snapped 11-game conference losing streak) by beat Vandy 26-17 here at home (were -3.5). Last week, if you had them +17 in Knoxville, I offer my condolences. Yes, the offense (which averages over 500 YPG) rang up the 740 yards, a remarkable achievement by any measure. But somehow a 35-30 game early in the fourth quarter turned into a 63-37 final. The Tigers ran for 420 yards and went for 600+ yards total for the 4th time this season. So I do not anticipate offense being an issue here. Getting points is a nice luxury to have. It just isn't often that you find Mizzou getting this many points at Memorial Stadium. Yes, I'm well aware that the Tigers will be w/o leading rusher Damarea Crockett, who is suspended. But they still have Ish Witter, who ran for 163 yds himself vs. Tennessee. Arkansas has a very leaky defense, particularly on the ground where they give up 6.3 yards per carry and 216 yards per game. Outside of Fayatteville, the Razorbacks' defense is giving up a frightening 8.1 yards per play, 45.2 points per game and 582 yards per game. Again, laying points w/ those kind of numbers seems to be a terrible combination. This is the first SEC game that the Hogs have been favored in this year! This also marks the first time all year that they've played B2B road games. 10* Missouri |
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11-24-16 | Seton Hall v. Florida -2.5 | Top | 76-81 | Win | 100 | 20 h 38 m | Show |
10* Florida (8:30 ET): It's certainly been an interesting start to the season for Florida. They've yet to play an actual home game as the O'Connell Center is still being renovated. This hasn't seemed to bother them though as they've opened the year w/ four consecutive wins at neutral sites, the most recent being a 78-61 triumph over Belmont on Monday. It was their third double digit victory of the young season so far. Tonight, a much closer game is expected against Seton Hall as part of the Advocare Invitational in Lake Buena Vista. The Pirates arrive in the Sunshine State fresh off a minor upset of an Iowa (in Iowa City!) and while I can see why a lot of people are calling for the same thing here, the value is on the Gators. Lay the short number. It's not like Florida has had to venture far this season. The first two games of the season were played in nearby Jacksonville and neither Florida Gulf Coast nor Mercer proved to be much competition. St. Bonaventure was able to hang tough in Lakeland last Thursday, but as mentioned above, Belmont was no match in Tampa earlier this week. I feel that the fact the Gators have to play their first 11 games all outside of Gainesville will benefit them greatly. While not ranked, I certainly feel Mike White's team is making a strong case and should be favored by more in its home state. A great sign for the Gators thus far is their free throw shooting is much improved from last year when they ranked 323rd (out of 346) nationally. This year, they are up to 75.2% from the charity stripe and that's proven to be a big edge for them so far (more on that in a bit). Seton Hall has shot the lights out in their first three games at 54.2% overall. But here they'll be running into a team that has limited its opponents to a 38.4% shooting thus far and only 60 points per game. Free throw shooting can decide games and this year it looks to be a problem for Seton Hall, who is only at 56.6%, barely higher than their overall field goal percentage! Florida has really benefited thus far from poor opponent FT shooting (57.8%), so could that trend continue? Speaking of trends, Seton Hall is due to regress after posting one of the better ATS records in the country last year. The Pirates could come out flat after being off for a week. 10* Florida |
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11-24-16 | LSU v. Texas A&M +7.5 | Top | 54-39 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
10* Texas A&M (7:30 ET): Needless to say, both schools were hoping a little bit more would be on the line Thanksgiving Night. But Alabama made sure that the SEC West was decided long ago and now these two are simply relegated for pride. Granted, despite it's now almost-annual late season swoon, Texas A&M probably can still parlay a Sugar Bowl appearance were they to win here. Regardless, I was going to take them anyway as I hate this spot for LSU, who had to play the make-up game LW vs. Florida and lost 16-10 despite giving up only 270 total yards of offense, more than a third of that coming on one play, the Gators' lone TD of the game. Meanwhile, A&M had a virtual layup last week in hosting UTSA here in College Station. Take the points. I should point out that the Aggies did not cover LW as they were big 25.5-pt favorites. That's nothing new here in College Station as LW marked the seventh consecutive time the Aggies fell short of the oddsmakers' expectations (after 4-0 ATS start!). But I see them collecting the cash here as they catch a huge break w/ Leonard Fournette not playing for LSU. Compared to past seasons, the Aggies have a good defense (thanks to former LSU DC John Chavis) and I just can't see this LSU offense doing much w/o Fournette. While they've averaged just over 40 PPG in the three games he's missed so far, that's misleading as the opponents were Jacksonville State, Missouri and Southern Miss. This is also a big revenge game for the Aggies, who are 0-4 SU against the Tigers since joining the SEC. Getting the game at home is big as their only loss here in College Station this season came by a single point after blowing a 21-6 fourth quarter lead. LSU's two previous wins here came by only five and six points. In two of their last three games, the Tigers have scored 10 and 0 points. Not saying the Aggies have the defense the caliber of Alabama or Florida, but they can hold this offense in check. Also, on the other side of the ball, LSU's top tackler (Kendall Beckwith) is out as well. Interim HC Ed Orgeron is pretty lame duck by this point as it's pretty obvious at this point that he shouldn't get the job. 10* Texas A&M |
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11-24-16 | Vikings +2 v. Lions | Top | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The Vikings have had quite the interesting season so far. They started 5-0 SU, quickly establishing themselves as a "team to beat" in the NFC. At that juncture, they were an incredible 18-3 ATS over a 21-game span. But what followed was a 0-4 SU/ATS stretch where the offense was anemic to say the least (14.0 PPG). They bounced back last week, however, beating Arizona 30-24 at home. That win guaranteed this would be a battle for first place in the NFC North as Detroit likewise comes in w/ a 6-4 SU record. Despite beating the Jags 26-19, the Lions were actually held under 300 total yds last week and didn't get the cover until the final 22 seconds when they kicked a field goal (only after drawing an encroachment penalty on 4th and 2 earlier in the drive). Detroit has been a tad bit lucky this year, I'd say w/ all six wins coming by 7 pts or less. I think the wrong team is favored here. One of those four consecutive losses that the Vikings suffered was at home to Detroit, so this is a revenge game for them. The loss took place three weeks ago and was a 22-16 final in overtime. Until last week, that represented the Lions' largest win of the season. Note that to even get to OT they had to have a Matt Prater 58-yard field goal w/ no time remaining in regulation. That was a 4-play, 35-yard drive that began w/ only 23 seconds left. Minnesota never got the ball in OT as Detroit went 11 plays and 87 yards for the win. At the end of regulation, the Vikings held a 337-224 edge in total yards, so even though they were never covering (were -6.5), it would still qualify as a bit of a brutal loss. These teams have alternated season sweeps the L2 years, but this year I'm calling for a split. I mentioned earlier that the Lions have been a bit lucky en route to this 6-4 SU record of theirs. Though 5-1 SU last six games, they've been held under 300 total yds five times in regulation during that time! They're being outgained over the course of the season and have a point differential of just +6 for the year. (Minnesota is +29). Honestly, I was a little scared of the fact that the Vikings needed two non-offensive TD's last week to get by Arizona, but then I remembered Detroit did the same! I think the Vikings defense, which ranks #2 in scoring and #3 in yards allowed, ultimately is the difference maker here. Incredibly, the Lions rushed for only 14 yards last week against the Jags. In what figures to be a low-scoring game, I'm taking the points. 10* Minnesota |
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11-23-16 | Thunder +2.5 v. Kings | Top | 101-116 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): My, how times have changed? The Thunder are crashing, to the point they are now getting points ... in Sacramento? Yikes. Last night brought a brutal loss, to the Lakers, as Nick Young stunned everyone w/ a go-ahead three-pointer w/ only five seconds remaining. The final score was 111-109, OKC's second consecutive defeat by four points or less. They are now only 8-7 SU this season, their first w/o Kevin Durant, but that hardly qualifies them to be a dog to a lowly foe like the Kings. The difference between the Thunder and Pelicans (who I'm playing against in this 3-pack) tonight is expect the former to be more motivated in their unrested situation. Take the points. Sacramento was on the winning end of a buzzer beater Sunday night, or should I say the right side of a disallowed buzzer beater? Hosting Toronto (were 3-pt underdogs), the Kings led by what ended up being the final score when the Raptors' Terrance Ross hit a three-pointer. But the officials set the clock didn't start on time and disallowed the shot in controversial fashion. Truth be told, the Kings were fortunate they got off to such a strong start (36 first quarter points) as they likely would have lost had the game gone to OT (though I can't prove it!). They also still rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. A major story thus far has been their decreased pace of play under HC Dave Joerger. Oklahoma City was 6-1 SU to start the season and still has Russell Westbrook, who is nearly averaging a triple double. They also rank 6th in defensive efficiency, a far cry from where the Kings are at. Joerger started a smaller lineup against Toronto in an effort to speed the pace up, but the problem w/ that here will be OKC figures to dominate them on the boards. The Thunder are currently fourth in the league in rebounding rate. Oklahoma City was an 8.5-point favorite in both visits to California's capital city last season. Obviously, the departure of Durant must be figured in, but this line is a clear overreaction to recent results by the oddsmakers. 8* Oklahoma City |
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11-23-16 | Wolves -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 96-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (9:35 ET): New Orleans embarrassed me (and the Hawks) last night as they went on the road and picked up a surprising 112-94 win as eight-point pups. It was their third consecutive win and cover and fifth straight up win in the last seven games following an 0-8 SU start. The return of PG Jrue Holliday has proven huge as its eases the burden of Anthony Davis, who was left to carry a sorry supporting cast early in the year. But I don't like the Pelicans chances tonight in the second game of a back to back as they face a T'wolves squad that's a whole lot better than its 4-9 SU record shows. Most of their games have been in the pick 'em range thus far, but this is an opponent they should be favored to beat - even on the road. Believe it or not, Minnesota still sports a positive YTD point differential and efficiency rating despite the losing record. That's largely owed to the fact that their four wins have all been blowouts. The four teams that they've blown out - Memphis, the Lakers, Orlando and Philadelphia - span efficiency ratings that the Pelicans would fall right in the middle of (below Grizzlies & Lakers, but above Magic & Sixers). The T'wolves still rank 7th in offensive efficiency, even after being held to an average of 82 PPG in losses to Memphis and Boston. The game vs. the Celtics was yet another where this team blew a double digit lead (led by 13 entering the fourth quarter). They've now held a double digit lead in virtually every game this season. The Pelicans are 3-0 SU since Holliday's return, but it was a career night from fellow PG Tim Frazier (21 pts, 14 assists) that set the tone in last night's shocking blowout in Atlanta. Right off the bat, realize that New Orleans is 1-3 SU/ATS this season when playing in the second game of a back to back this season. Don't look for them to duplicate last night's shooting where they were 52% overall and 44% from three-point range. They are also still giving up 113.2 PPG at home, a frightening number considering Davis' presence. Last year, they gave up 144 points to the T'wolves in a loss! 8* Minnesota |
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11-23-16 | Cal Poly v. Northern Illinois -9 | Top | 68-64 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): After losing for the first time, I like the Huskies' chances of getting back on track tonight in DeKalb. Saturday, they lost by two out at Cal State Northridge (covered as 2.5-pt dogs), but here it's a West Coast team having to make the trip to their gym. All things considered, it's been an impressive start for Northern Illinois as they've won all three home games, including one against Indiana State. Can't say the same for Cal Poly-SLO, however, as the Mustangs lost and failed to cover their first two road games, at Pepperdine and Arizona State. Back to back home wins over the likes of Cal St Dom Hills and Bethesda aren't going to change my view of this team whatsoever. Lay the points. This is NIU's own tournament, so you'd naturally expect them to play well. Elon and IL-Chicago are also in DeKalb this week and will be the next two opponents for both teams with three games played over a four-day span (no games tomorrow). Yes, I did play against Northern Illinois on Saturday in that trip to CS-Northridge. I was lucky enough to escape with a push (bet the game at -2), but the reality is even that was quite the fortunate result. One could reasonably conclude that the Huskies would have won that game were it not for a massive shooting disparity that saw them make only 34.1% of their FG attempts while CS-Northridge was 51.9%. Both teams actually made the same number of field goals (28), but NIU had 82 attempts to 54 for CSN! If just two of those extra 28 shots would have gone down, they would have won! A big reason that I went against Northern Illinois in that spot was they were on the road and their opponent had revenge. Neither of those situations are present tonight. The Huskies have won 31 of their past 37 home games and are 14-1 SU (10-3 ATS) after scoring 80+ Points the previous game. In the first three games in DeKalb, they averaged 80.7 PPG. Meanwhile, Cal Poly is just 8-23 SU its L31 road games and allowed both Pepperdine and Arizona State to shoot better than 50% from the field earlier in the year. If NIU can get off anywhere near the number of shots they did at Cal-State Northridge, they'll win this one easily. 10* Northern Illinois |
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11-23-16 | Heat +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 84-107 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Coming into the year, these were two Eastern Conference teams expected to trend in very opposite directions. Miami finished third in the conference LY w/ a 48-34 SU record, but the defection of Dwyane Wade and others (no Chris Bosh) led most reasonable minds to conclude that the Heat would tumble down the standings this year. That has pretty much played out as they stand at 4-9 entering tonight after an embarrassing loss to the 76ers on Monday. But, somewhat surprisingly, the Pistons appear to be in just as bad of shape as they've dropped four in a row entering tonight (also 0-4 ATS) and they're simply not playing as well as people expected coming off LY's 8th place finish. Take the points. One bright spot for the Heat right now is their defense. They are one of only three teams in the league to currently be allowing fewer than one point per possession. A big key in that is Hassan Whiteside, who is averaging 14.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per game. He had a career-high 32 points against Philadelphia, but the problem is that no one else stepped up. Quite frankly, the rest of the Heat were terrible as they combined to shoot a horrendous 21 of 69 from the floor, which is barely above 30%. One could point to the absence of Justise Winslow, but things had been going fine previous to Monday as the team had won B2B games straight up and covered four straight. Yes, there was a six-game SU losing streak to start November, but half of those losses were by three points or less. The same can be said for Detroit, who has lost three times by three points or less in this four-game losing streak of theirs. But they're still being priced as if that streak has not occurred, which is a problem for them. I have these teams rated evenly coming into tonight, so anything over +3 is a value on Miami, especially in what figures to be a low-scoring game (Under is 7-0 in Detroit home games so far). Overall, the Pistons are just 2-7 SU and ATS their last nine games. 10* Miami |
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11-23-16 | UL-Lafayette v. James Madison -3 | Top | 82-70 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
8* James Madison (4:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for the Dukes of JMU. I should know as I played against them 10 days ago, when as a 6-point favorite, they lost outright to Rice 94-70! They're now 0-4 following losses to Montana State and Texas Southern. Therefore, it may seem curious that the oddsmakers would favor them here, but that probably speaks to how bad UL Lafayette is. The Ragin Cajuns dropped their first two games, both on the road, one at Montana State as well. They've since "bounced back" w/ B2B wins at home, but both came against non-lined opponents, OK Panhandle State and Delaware State. Monday's win over Delaware State came only by a single point. Lay the points here. James Madison did not shoot the ball well vs. Texas Southern and that's putting it mildly. They shot only 18 of 50 (35%) overall from the floor, including a dreadful 5 of 21 from three-point range. It was their second straight bad shooting night as they were just 30.4% overall at Montana State! Ironically, their best shooting game of the young season came in their most lopsided loss, the aforementioned game against Rice. That one was at least at home, so that's something to lean on. I see the offense increasing tonight against a LA Lafayette team that has already given up 82+ points in three games this season. Meanwhile, in the Ragin Cajuns first two road games, they too were below 37% shooting. A big issue for JMU to this point has been the status of Ramone Snowden and Vince Holmes, two key transfers that were expected to contribute immediately. However, both were quickly suspended for violating team rules. Holmes has yet to play in a game. Snowden, who comes by way of Niagara, has played in every game but is struggling to find his shot (30% FG). I look for Snowden to break out here. Winless and off a game where a comeback effort fell short, I'm expecting to see some fire from JMU here in what will be their last home game before December 20th! There's a sense of urgency in Richmond right now that the visitors will be unable to match tonight. 8* James Madison |
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11-22-16 | Indiana -11 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
8* Indiana (9:00 ET): This will be my second time playing against IPFW this year and the reason here will be, generally speaking, the same as the first. Unbeknownst to many, the Mastadons were the top ATS team in the country last year. That's going by percentage at least as they were 21-8 at the pay window. No team that played at least seven games LY covered at that high of a percentage (almost 75%). Therefore, I've stipulated that regression is coming for 2016-17. After IPFW covered the spread in the season opener, losing 92-83 at Arkansas (but as 15-pt dogs), I target them for a fade last Wednesday and they got hammered by Illinois State, 75-57 (getting only 6.5). I've got no problem laying points here w/ an even better team. This is a rare early season road date, but obviously they won't be going far. It's their only scheduled "true" road game of the non-conference slate. Having won by nearly 40 pts on Saturday (against Liberty) and w/ the next game not until Sunday, the Mastadons should have the Hoosiers' full attention here. Already, IU has recorded one impressive win as they beat Kansas in the season opener, 103-99 as six-point dogs. Tom Crean typically fields an offensive juggernaut and this year appears to be no different. Through three games, the team is averaging 96.7 PPG. Yes, overtime was needed to beat Kansas, but even then the Hoosiers scored 89 pts in regulation. One of the games IPFW failed to cover last year was against Indiana. Playing in Bloomington, they lost 90-65 as 20-pt dogs. I don't think that the linesmakers have shifted enough to represent the growing discrepancy between the two programs for this year. Indiana is now ranked #3 in the country. As mentioned earlier, they just destroyed Liberty, holding the Flames to 29.7% shooting from the floor and forcing 26 turnovers. The Hoosiers dominated the rebounding battle and shot better than 60% themselves. It may not be that dominant this go around, but it doesn't have to be. 8* Indiana |
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11-22-16 | Pelicans v. Hawks -8 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): I'm a little surprised that this isn't a double digit spread. I have the Hawks rated among the top five teams in the league currently, alongside all "the usual suspects." (Those being the Clippers, Warriors, Spurs and Cavs). In fact, this team holds a win over the Cavaliers, in Cleveland no less. They come into tonight off B2B losses though, falling on the road to Charlotte (by four) and the Knicks (early Sunday start). The team did drop B2B games once before ... and promptly responded by blowing out a good Houston team here at home immediately after. Therefore, I don't see them having trouble w/ the Pelicans. Considering New Orleans was a seven-point dog at Orlando last week, this price looks like a real bargain by comparison. Lay the points. Since opening 0-8 SU, New Orleans has won four of its last six games. But this team is still "Anthony Davis and little else." Now the return of PG Jrue Holliday has been big as they are 2-0 SU since his return (was tending to his ill wife). Yes, the Pelicans just beat the same Charlotte team that handed Atlanta a loss. But there's a few things that should be pointed out there. One is that the Pellies got them at home in the second night of a back to back (Hornets had just beaten Atlanta the previous night). It was an overtime game as well where NO had to rally from an 11-pt deficit heading into the 4Q. When the Hawks lost to the Hornets the previous night, Dwight Howard was ejected in the 4Q. Dennis Schroeder flat out stunk Sunday in New York, going 0 for 8 from the field. Improvement is a guarantee tonight. Also, the Hawks will welcome key reserve Thabo Sefolosha back to the lineup tonight (missed L3 games). It is important to note that Atlanta is now #1 in the league in defensive efficiency (.96 points per possession) and will be facing a New Orleans offense which ranks 25th. Despite the cities close proximity, this is the first meeting in over a year between these two teams. Atlanta swept last year and was a 13-pt favorite when they hosted. They are 6-1 ATS at home so far this year while New Orleans is 12-26 ATS off its L38 SU dog victories. 10* Atlanta |
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11-21-16 | Western Carolina v. Ohio State -26.5 | Top | 38-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The Buckeyes are 3-0 SU, but have yet to cover the spread a single time (0-3 ATS). Wins over Navy, NC Central and Providence have all been by 10 pts or less. Therefore, on the surface, it may not seem like a good idea to lay this monster number tonight as Western Carolina pays a visit. But the Catamounts are prime material to get routed seeing as they've already fallen by more than this spread twice this season and this will be their second road game in three days. The first resulted in a 35-point loss at Marshall (were +16 there). They've also lost at Miami FL by 49, in the season opener (were +22.5 there). Lay the points. This game is a part of the non-bracketed, Global Sports Invitational. The two sides have already played one common opponent, that being NC Central. While the Buckeyes certainly could have been a lot more impressive against the Eagles, they still won 69-63 here in Columbus, last Monday (were -24). Meanwhile, Western Carolina lost to them at home, 67-59, in a non-lined affair. "I didn't like a whole lot of what I saw tonight," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said in reference to his team's win over NC Central. Matta would go on to say, "We weren't physically and mentally very tough. Obviously, we have to get that corrected." Fortunately for Matta, his team looked a lot better in Thursday's 72-67 win over Providence, though the MOV was no greater. But OSU did dominate in terms of shooting the basketball, 50 percent to 35.4. Western Carolina scored only 59 pts against NC Central and has been even more inept offensively on the road, scoring just 53 PPG in road losses to Miami and Marshall. Even worse, they've shot below 30 percent in those two losses. I just don't see the issues being corrected here. The Buckeyes have been one of the more dominant home teams in the country under Matta, posting the most home wins of any D-I team at home since 2007-08 w/ 124. JaQuan Lyle had a monster game vs. Providence, registering 21 pts, eight rebounds and seven assists. 8* Ohio State |
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11-21-16 | George Washington v. Georgia -6 | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* Georgia (7:00 ET): This game takes place in Kansas City, Missouri and is a semifinal matchup in the CBE Hall of Fame Classic. After losing the season opener, 74-64 at Clemson, the Bulldogs have bounced back to post B2B victories in this event, beating UNC-Asheville and Furman. While both games were closer than the 'Dawgs would have liked, I'm still impressed enough by what I saw. Remember that this is a program that has won 20+ games each of the L3 seasons under HC Mark Fox. As for George Washington, they arrive in KC at 3-0 SU, but were hardly impressive in narrow wins over MD-Eastern Shore or Siena (both decided by four points or less). In their last game, the Colonials were fortunate that Ark Pine Bluff shot a woeful 26.7% from the floor (GW was at 35.6%). It was a different kind of game last time out for UGA as they had to deal w/ Furman shooting the ball at a 50% clip on Thursday. What kept the Paladins in the game was a 10 of 21 mark from three-point range (UGA was just 5 of 18). But while the 'Dawgs may have struggled from distance, they dominated on the interior, going 23 of 35 on two-point attempts. Yante Maten and JJ Frazier again carried the scoring load w/ a combined 55 points. Over the L3 seasons, this team is 9-4 ATS coming off a game where it scored 80+ points. Also of interest is they don't get upset much; their SU record when priced as the favorite is an impressive 31-6 SU. George Washington won the NIT last year, but has far less experience on this year's squad w/ eight underclassmen suiting up. Contrast that w/ Georgia, who figures to be a threat in the better SEC. Again, GW struggled to get by MD-Eastern Shore in its opener (despite a massive +20 edge in attempts at the FT line) and then was back and forth virtually the whole way w/ Siena at home last Tuesday. The Colonials won't have the same edges on the interior here as they did against the Saints, nor will Georgia shoot the ball as poorly as Arkansas Pine Bluff did on Thursday. Neither team has shot the ball particularly well from three-point range, but I'll point to the fact that Georgia has more overall talent and GW is just 2-8 ATS its L10 games vs. the SEC. 10* Georgia |
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11-20-16 | Long Beach State +15.5 v. UCLA | Top | 77-114 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): UCLA is 3-0 and played three home games against overmatched foes. Not surprisingly, Pacific, CS-Northridge and San Diego all fell by the wayside by double digit margins. Tonight, they host a Long Beach State team whose record is unfair as they've certainly been unafraid to step up and take on strong competition. That's been the hallmark under Dan Monson, but this year has taken things to a whole new level. The 49ers have played Wichita State, North Carolina and Louisville in the L3 games and due to some uncharacteristically poor shooting, all three went really poorly. But I look for a bounce back here and I'm taking the points. Playing a fourth straight top foe on the road and third ranked opponent in less than five days seems like a really tough spot. But Monson should have his team ready. They've shot just 31.2%, 36.4% and 29.5% those L3 games and I cannot state enough how they're almost certain to top those percentages tonight. UCLA is allowed 80 and 87 pts its first two games. Also, bad defense has hurt the 49ers. Both Wichita State and North Carolina shot better than 55% against them. Again, those numbers are a virtual lock to come down. This perennial Big West power is better than its shown thus far and is due for a competitive game. They've played UCLA tough each of the last two years, losing by only 7 and 14 pts. While UCLA is getting at least 14 PPG from five different players, they will not be able to keep that up. Four players on the roster are dealing w/ injuries right now. It should be pointed out that they failed to cover against both CS-Northridge and San Diego. In games with high totals such as this, these teams have experienced very different results. If the total is 160 to 169.5, UCLA is 0-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Meanwhile, LBSU is 11-2 ATS L13, 5-0 if away from home. They are also 10-4 ATS after allowing 80+ points the previous game. This is a bounce back spot for the underdog and a great spot to fade an overvalued favorite. 8* Long Beach State |
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11-20-16 | Jazz +3.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 91-105 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): Both of these Northwest Division teams are pretty banged up right now. Utah, a popular pick to break through into the upper echelon of the Western Conference this year, started in kind at 6-2 straight up. They are now 7-7 SU. They've lost three straight, the first two as favorites. But then yday, even getting 6.5, they could not cover in what ended up being a 111-102 loss to Houston. But I thought there was some positive takeaways. Other than Gordon Hayward, the other four Jazz starters had a combined seven years of NBA experience. Yet the team actually shot better than 50% from the floor. Really, the box score shows an even matchup except for the 14-5 disadvantage Utah faced in turnovers. Denver has covered its last three games. But they have just one SU win in their last six. They come in off a OT loss here at home to Toronto, 113-111. After falling behind early (trailed by 10 after 1Q), the Nuggets rallied to take a five point lead by halftime. From there, it was a close game throughout. But even though the Raptors shot only 61% from the FT line and 45.7% from the floor, Denver could not get the job done. Part of the problem is that they were a horrendous 4 of 25 from three-point range. Another issue is that they are really thin in the backcourt right now. Both Gary Harris and Will Barton are out and HC Michael Malone has been tinkering w/ his starting lineup. This team's only SU win over the L6 games came at Phoenix's expense. Denver is just 1-4 SU at home this year. I believe Utah is being undervalued here due to the back to back situation. Note Saturday's game was played a little earlier than normal, so this B2B may not be as tough as some others. By the way, the Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS playing in the second game of a back to back this year! They are also 5-1 ATS playing against a team w/ a losing record. In terms of efficiency, there is no denying which team has been better and even the Nuggets' home court edge shouldn't make them a favorite here. Utah is allowing only 94.4 PPG so far (#1 in the league!) while Denver is allowing 108.3 (bottom 7). The Jazz are 6-2 SU and ATS the L8 head to head meetings including a 4-0 SU sweep LY. 8* Utah |
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11-20-16 | Packers +2.5 v. Redskins | Top | 24-42 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:25 ET): Aaron Rogers and the Packers appear to be declining at a frightening rate and rumors about the QB's personal life don't seem like they'll help matters. But I can't help but think back to LY's Wild Card Game between the Pack and the Redskins. Green Bay came to FedEx Field as a short underdog and dominated an overmatched Washington team, 35-18. I see the exact same scenario playing out Sunday night. If Mike McCarthy doesn't have his team ready to go coming off LW's embarrassing 47-25 loss at Tennessee, then maybe it is time for a total re-evaluation. Meanwhile, I'm still unsold on the 'Skins even though they won their division last year and come in at 5-3-1 SU. Take the points. Over the L3 seasons, Washington is 3-8 ATS including 1-5 when laying three or less at home. That one cover came LW in a back and forth game over slumping Minnesota, 26-20 laying 2.5. That result actually did GB a major favor all things considered (keeps them only one game off a division lead). But note the Redskins were coming off a bye last week, giving them a bit of an advantage. No such edge exists here. Like so many teams in this league, Washington's record is a byproduct of fortune in close games. The only team they've beaten by more than a touchdown is the Browns and even that game was close in the fourth quarter. People forget, but the team was 0-2 SU at one point and headed to New York as a sizable dog against the Giants. I took them in what ended up being an outright win there and they're now 5-1-1 SU/6-1 ATS L7 games. Now I view them as fade material. It was four second half field goals that won the game for them last week as the offense failed to get into the end zone after halftime. Contrary to popular belief, the Green Bay offense hasn't been terrible of late. They've averaged 27.7 PPG the L3 games, despite losing all of them. The defense was terrible last week, but I don't see the Washington passing attack exploiting them the same way Tennessee did. For the record, a -3 turnover margin really hurt the Pack last week. This will be just the second time all season that Rodgers and company have been a dog. They covered the first, at Atlanta. They are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS L7 meetings w/ the Redskins. 10* Green Bay |
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11-20-16 | St. Joe's v. Ole Miss -2 | Top | 68-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
10* Ole Miss (6:00 ET): Going against St. Joe's didn't prove to be fruitful on Friday afternoon, but I'm going back to the well here on Sunday. The Hawks covered more games (24) than any other team in the country last year, but have lost a lot of talent since then. There's also the simple "law of averages" at play here, which says they simply won't be as profitable here in 2016-17. But after failing to cover the season opener (won by 1 over Toledo), I give them credit for posting double digit wins over Columbia and Loyola Chicago. But now it's time for what is clearly the stiffest test yet, that being a date w/ fellow 3-0 team Ole Miss. I like the Rebels to come through Sunday evening in the Virgin Islands. While Mississippi is 3-0 SU, they are also 0-3 ATS. All three wins thus far have been by seven points or less. That largest MOV of 7 pts also happened to come in an overtime game, their last time out, against Oral Roberts. So because of all the close calls, we're now getting a better than expected value. Note that the Rebels still average 90.3 points per game! Obviously then, you'd like to see them tighten the defense up. But when you have Miami (FL) transfer DeAndre Burnett pouring in 41 pts (like he did vs. Oral Roberts, who needs defense? Also, it's not like Andy Kennedy's team is playing that bad of defense, they just play at a fast pace. No opponent has shot better than 47.7%, at least overall. Oral Roberts was able to stay in the game by shooting a somewhat ridiculous 11 of 19 from the three-point line and 15 of 16 from the FT line. St. Joe's shot 55.2% against Columbia, but other than that they haven't been so hot from the floor. They really benefited from Loyola only getting to the free throw line 12 times on Friday and missing 21 of 27 three-point attempts. Their two best players from last year - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and will be out 2-3 weeks. I'm not coming off what I said two days ago and that's St. Joe's is fade material right now. 10* Ole Miss |
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11-20-16 | Eagles +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -130 | 89 h 39 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (4:25 ET): I was as shocked as any when the Eagles started the year 3-0 (though in retrospect, two wins came against Cleveland and Chicago) and as unsurprised as any when they came crashing back down to Earth by losing four of their next five. But let's give the team some "due" for beating a hot Atlanta team last week, 24-15, even if it was at home. Some will point to the fact they (Philly) are just 1-4 SU/ATS on the road this year and set to visit the most hostile venue in the league. But w/ a defense that has played every bit as good as Seattle's (yes, you read that correctly!), they absolutely can - and should - stay in this one throughout, if not pull off the "unthinkable" - that being an outright win. Take the points. Also of note is that this line was set to open at Seattle -4.5. But that was before the Seahawks upset the Patriots, a result that I was on the right side of, thank you very much! Anticipating an onslaught of Seattle money here, the oddsmakers had no choice but to bump up the number. One has to think what would the reaction of been had the Seahawks defense not held New England out of the end zone at the end of the game Sunday night. This is a really tough spot for Russell Wilson and company as they have to fly back cross country after a heavily hyped primetime affair and lay points to a possible playoff contender. There have been only two teams all year that Seattle has beaten by more than seven points. Those are San Francisco and the Jets, both of whom are bottom five teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Eagles actually sport the league's third best point differential. I use that metric as a guide to predict future performance as I find it to be far more reliable than a team's actual won-loss record. Because all four losses have come by a TD or less and all five wins have been by at least nine points, we find Philly +66 in points for vs. against right now. Only Dallas and New England are better (Seahawks "only" +35). Seattle's offensive line and running game (certainly connected) turned in its best game of the year last week, but I'm not sure that gets repeated against an Eagles defense which permits only 101 YPG over land and just held the top offense in the league (Atlanta) to only 303 yds total last week . 8* Philadelphia |
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11-20-16 | Jaguars +7 v. Lions | Top | 19-26 | Push | 0 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Here we find the oddsmakers asking something of the Lions that they have not done all season. That is win a game by at least seven points! Sure Detroit is 5-4 SU and currently sitting atop the NFC North by virtue of their largest win of the season, 22-16 over the Vikings two weeks ago as 4.5-pt underdogs. But how ironic that the Lions' largest win of the season was an overtime game? Somewhat incredibly, all five of the teams wins have come about as a result of fourth quarter comebacks. They've also benefited by committing only six turnovers. Interestingly, enough the defense has forced only seven. I'm just not ready to get on board w/ this team quite yet, particularly in this price range. As favorites, Detroit is only 0-2-1 ATS this year including outright losses to both Tennessee and Chicago. Jacksonville, on the other hand, has consistently been on the wrong end of close games. They are 2-7 straight up, but four of those losses have been by five points or less. Two of the most painful have come over the L2 weeks. The defense held both Kansas City and Houston under 300 total yards of offense, yet both times the Jags came up short on the scoreboard. I had them plus the points against the Chiefs two weeks ago and thankfully they did cover there (as 7-pt dogs). Comparing spreads for a minute, there's no way the Lions deserve to be favored by as many as points as the 7-2 Chiefs. Last week saw Jacksonville curiously bet to the role of favoritism against rested Houston (something I disagreed with) and they lost that one 24-21. Turnovers have doomed the Jags in these last two losses as they are -6 in that department. What we're looking at here is a Jaguars team that's probably better than its record and a Lions team that is certainly not as good as its record. Using a stock analogy, it's time to "sell high" on the Motor City. Detroit has actually been outscored on the season. I handicap this game the same way I did the JAX-KC matchup and the Jags not only covered in Arrowhead, they probably should have won outright as they outgained the Chiefs 449-231! Jacksonville has now covered four of the last six times it has been a road dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Jacksonville |
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11-20-16 | Ravens +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -123 | 85 h 14 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Following last week's wild 35-30 win over Pittsburgh and New England's subsequent loss to Seattle, I now have the Cowboys ranked as the #1 team in the league. Let that sink in for a little bit. They have a rookie QB and a rookie RB and there's a strong likelihood that Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott finish 1-2 in the Rookie of the Year voting (actually more like 2-1, Elliott is your likely winner). America's Team has covered the spread in every game since their Week 1 loss to the Giants. However ... it's not like they've been blowing teams out. Other than Cleveland (who is the worst team in the league), no win this season has come by a margin greater than two touchdowns. Half have been by a TD or less. This being their largest spread of the season, I think we may finally have reached our "tipping point" w/ Dallas this week and I'll fade them. In fact, there have only been three times all season where the Cowboys have been favored by more than ONE point. I already referenced the game at Cleveland. The other two were vs. Chicago and Philadelphia, both Sunday Night games coincidentally. The fact that the 'Boys are now favored by more to beat the Ravens than they were the lowly Bears shows how off the pricing was for them and Chicago at the start of the year. It also shows value to me on Baltimore here. Also, you'll note that they only covered against the Eagles due to overtime as they took the opening possession and scored a touchdown. Yes, you have to give Dallas credit for winning these games, but LW's high-profile win has brought the weight of expectations, something they may not be ready to meet, at least at this price. Also, this team is just 7-13 ATS in Jerry World the L3 seasons. Baltimore is a team that, win or lose, almost always plays close games. They've actually been favored in more games this year than have the Cowboys (6 of 9)! In fact, there hasn't been a single time this year that the Ravens have been getting more than 3.5 pts from the oddsmakers. So you can see how far the market has shifted here towards Dallas despite the fact the Ravens have won B2B games and have had extra time to prepare following a 28-7 cakewalk two Thursdays ago against Cleveland. The Ravens also have the best defense in the league in terms of yards allowed and are top five in scoring. Since the start of last season, this team has played all of three games that weren't decided by one possessions. Two (both losses) were last year w/o Joe Flacco. The other was the aforementioned game LW vs. the Browns. Take the points here. 10* Baltimore |
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11-19-16 | Northern Illinois v. CS-Northridge -2 | Top | 82-84 | Push | 0 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
8* CS Northridge (11:00 ET): Both Northern Illinois and CS-Northridge have played three games. The former is 3-0 while the latter is 1-2. But as is so often the case, records can be misleading. Northern Illinois has yet to leave DeKalb and has played three very weak opponents (Indiana St, Roosevelt, Idaho). Meanwhile, CS-Northridge comes off road dates vs. UCLA and Stanford, neither of which you'd expect them to win (were double digit dogs both times out). Here though, the Matadors are a slight favorite at home and I think a great value. NIU hasn't shot well in either of its two wins over D-I teams. This is also a revenge spot for CSN. Lay the points. Last year, in DeKalb, Northern Illinois beat CS Northridge 83-71 as 9.5-pt dogs. We touched on NIU's relatively poor shooting this year, but let's revisit the shooting numbers from this matchup last year, shall we? The Mastadons actually outshot the Huskies from the floor (47.3% to 44.4%), but three-pointers were huge as were free throws for the eventual winner. NIU was 11-24 from behind the arc while CSN was 4-12. Meanwhile, from the charity stripe, CSN actually missed more than they made and they had 31 attempts. Talk about a lot of missed opportunities in a game lost by single digits. For the record, NIU was 24 of 34 on its free throw attempts. True road games have seen Northern Illinois go just 7-21 SU the previous two seasons (2-8 ATS L10). They are also 9-23 SU as an underdog the L2 years. The 14-point win over Idaho on Wednesday was a bit misleading in the sense that the game was tied at halftime and the Vandals shot only 32% from the floor. Also, NIU had a massive 25-9 edge at the free throw line. This is a good spot for the host Matadors to get back on track. 8* CS Northridge |
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11-19-16 | USC v. UCLA +13 | Top | 36-14 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 41 m | Show |
10* UCLA (10:30 ET): At the start of the season, most would have thought this would be the game to decide the Pac 12 South. Instead, the most historical rivalry game out West (I think that's fair to say, right?) is relegated to mere afterthought. Granted, USC is still a player as the Trojans are 6-2 SU in conference play after picking their most impressive win of the season, last week, at Washington's expense. But UCLA, even though they too won last week, has taken a rather dramatic fall in year #5 under HC Jim Mora as they are 2-5 SU vs. the rest of the conference and just 4-6 SU overall. But, to me, this has created a situation where there's a ton of value on the home underdog here. This being a rivalry game, the Bruins should still be highly motivated, especially considering winning out means a bowl game. Take the points. Last year, UCLA returned every starter on the offensive side of the ball, expect at the most important position of all. Fortunately, Josh Rosen was able to step in as a freshman and help guide the team to an 8-5 SU season. This year, the offense returned Rosen, but little else. A complete inability to run the ball (only 87 YPG!) and the injury to Rosen has really derailed them. But, last week we saw them run for 163 yds (2nd most in a game this year) in a 38-24 win over Oregon State. QB Mike Fafaul threw for 281 yards. Of note here is that while the Bruins may be 2-5 SU in conference play, they've scored just as many points as they've allowed (192). Their five losses have all been by 10 pts or less. They were actually favored in two of the five losses, but are also 2-0 ATS as DD dogs. Don't forget the Stanford debacle either. Aside from the Utah game, Mora's defense hasn't been terrible either (25.8 PPG allowed). When this line was first released over the summer, it was expected that UCLA would be about a 2.5-point favorite. My, how times have changed. I faded USC in their season opener, vs. Alabama, when they lost 52-6. The team actually stood at 1-3 SU, but give Clay Helton credit for righting the ship as the Trojans have looked impressive in rattling off six straight wins. In particular, last week's performance vs. Washington stands out. But it also makes them more prone to a letdown and I wouldn't be surprised if the Trojans players are actually looking past this game to Notre Dame next week! That won't be the case though for UCLA, who lost LY's game 40-21 (+3) and is trying to be bowl eligible. Revenge! 10* UCLA |
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11-19-16 | Arizona +5 v. Oregon State | Top | 17-42 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:30): As noted in the Stanford-Cal writeup, things have not gone well for Arizona in 2016. The bloom is definitely off Rich Rodriguez's rose here in Tucson as his Wildcats are a horrendous 1-9 at the betting window and only 2-8 straight up. Their season is all but officially over. They have not won since beating Hawaii back on Septmber 17th. Since then, it's been a 0-7 mark against the Pac 12 w/ all but one loss (ironically to Washington) coming by double digits! Why then an endorsement in this spot? Well, how about the fact that Oregon State is favored. The Beavers, who are 2-8 SU themselves, but 7-3 ATS, were last favored against a FBS foe last October (as in 2015) vs. Colorado (-1), a game they lost outright here in Corvallis. Admittedly, it's pretty hard to state a case for the underdog in this one, though I will point out that despite a 3:1 ticket count on OSU at most shops, the line has come down. So I'm not the only one thinking this way. So let's make a case AGAINST Oregon State shall we? Not only will this be the first time they've been favored over a FBS opponent this year, it will be just the second time they have NOT been a double digit dog! The Beavers have just one Pac 12 win (and I was on it!) in Gary Andersen's two years here, that being a 47-44 overtime win over Cal last month. They are also dealing with the news of WR Seth Collins, who earlier this week was admitted to the hospital with an "illness" and listed in critical condition (now in "good" condition). That will be difficult for the players to overcome. Collins was second on the team in receiving yards. Arizona beat Oregon State last year, 44-7 as 10-point favorites in Tucson. So a lot has changed in the last 365+ days. There are many reasons that the Wildcats have faded in 2016, but chief among them has been the injury to QB Anu Solomon. I'd also like to point out that the Wildcats have had to play arguably the seven best teams in the conference consecutively. I'd argue that there's not much of a difference between these teams, only the ATS records, which again reflect perception from the start of the year. No way OSU should be favored by more than the standard three points here. 8* Arizona |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma -2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 56-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 16 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): Perhaps we were too quick to write off the Big 12? With all of last week's chaos, a second life has been breathed into the conference's CFP aspirations, though it will still take a lot more chaos for the eventual champ to still get in. The two most likely reps are Oklahoma and West Virginia, who meet Saturday night in Morgantown. Anyone who follows my picks on a regular basis should know that I naturally gravitate toward home underdogs in situations such as these. But not here. Much has been made of the fact that WVU brings in the Big 12's best defense. But guess what? Here they'll be facing the league's best offense. This is not necessarily strength on strength though; OU is +17.6 PPG and +152 YPG in Big 12 play while WVU is only +11.6 PPG and +95 YPG. West Virginia beat Oklahoma all the way back in the '08 Orange Bowl, 48-28, as 10.5 pt underdogs. That outright win gave (at the time) interim HC Bill Stewart a job he did not deserve. But, the fairytale did not last long w/ Stewart getting dismissed after only three seasons (despite going 9-4 SU each year) and just as the school was set to join the Big 12. Why do I bring any of this "ancient history" up? Well, because, I find it somewhat ironic that Stewart's successor (Dana Holgorsen) has had no such luck beating OU despite now taking them on an annual basis. Since joining the Big 12, the Mountaineers are 0-4 SU vs. the Sooners. Furthermore, the MOV has gotten larger w/ each passing year: 1, 9, 12 and 20 have been the final margins. Last year, in Norman, OU won 44-24 as six-point favorites thanks to a dominant fourth quarter. So why does WVU think it will be different this time? Well, it probably has something to do w/ their unique 3-3-5 defense which is holding Big 12 foes to an average of just 20.2 points per game. I concede to the Morgantown faithful that holding Texas Tech and TCU to 27 pts total is really impressive. But this here will be the best offense they've seen so far. Oklahoma comes in averaging a whopping 44.2 PPG led by the awesome backfield tandem of Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon. Lost in the Sooner resurgence is the fact the defense is giving up an average of only 321 yards the L3 games. I don't think WVU QB Skylar Howard, who threw three picks last week, will necessarily "take advantage" of the - at times - soft OU pass coverage. The Mountaineers were actually outgained by Texas - by 153 yards - last week. Meanwhile, OU rolled up 566 yds in a three touchdown blowout of Baylor. Of the five meetings as conference rivals, this is the shortest spread the Sooners will have faced. I think it's telling they're favored here and it's for good reason. 10* Oklahoma |
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11-19-16 | Stanford v. California +10.5 | Top | 45-31 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
8* California (5:30 ET): It's been awhile since Cal won "The Big Game." To be exact, it's been six straight years losing to rival Stanford and only one of those games ('11) hasn't been decided by double digits. They couldn't beat the Cardinal any of Jared Goff's three years as the starter here in Berkeley, so why now? Well, this is certainly the most "down" David Shaw's team has been in his time in Palo Alto. Stanford has fallen way short of preseason expectations (were top 10) and this will be just the third double digit spread they've seen all year. The first two were both at home and they didn't cover either time. Furthermore, against Arizona (worst team in the conference) three weeks ago, they were only asked to lay 3.5! Take the points. One might take a look at recent form, on both sides, and conclude that this line is justified. But let's take a look at who each team has played, shall we? Stanford has won three in a row, but played Arizona, Oregon State and Oregon, arguably the three worst teams in the Pac 12. Cal has lost three in a row, all by three touchdowns or greater, but they've had to face USC, Washington and Washington State. Those are arguably the three BEST teams in the Pac 12. Those respective streaks have had a massive influence on this line and like I said earlier, Stanford failed to cover as DD chalk against Kansas State and Oregon State, at home. Cal has been a home dog four times this year and three times won outright, beating Texas, Utah and Oregon! A win here and bowl eligibility is still a possibility for the Bears. Stanford, prior to LW against Oregon, had some real problems scoring. In fact, they've topped 27 points only twice all year and that was against Arizona and Oregon. Had it not been for that miraculous defensive TD at the end of the game vs. UCLA back on 9.24, then the team would have gone five consecutive games w/o topping 17 points. This three game win streak has changed perception, but again, they faced the three weakest teams in the league. Cal has proven to be far more dangerous at home this season, averaging 39.2 points per game. The underdog will most definitely be up for this rivalry game. 8* California |
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11-19-16 | Navy v. East Carolina +8 | Top | 66-31 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
8* East Carolina (4:00 ET): Some of my biggest disappointments in all of College Football this year reside in the AAC. East Carolina is one (Cincinnati definitely another) as the Pirates are 3-7 both SU and ATS following last week's 55-31 home loss (as 6.5-point favorites!) to SMU (were -3 in TO's). ECU has covered just one of its last seven games, that being a 41-3 decision over lowly UConn here in Greenville. With no chance of bowling, you may wonder why I'd choose now to back Scottie Montgomery's team. Well, for one, I think there's a ton of value here as this marks just the fifth time since 2012 that an ECU team has been an underdog at home. They are 4-0 ATS previously, including a SU win over NC State earlier this year. Also, this is more of a play AGAINST Navy, who is off two somewhat miraculous wins the L2 weeks. Take the points. With only one returning starter on offense, I have to say that I thought Navy would take a step back this year. But Ken Niumatalolo is doing a great job here (9th season in Annapolis) as he has his Midshipmen at 7-2 (SU) and in position to win the AAC West Division. That being said, give the nod to Niumatalolo, but this team has had some good fortune in 2016. Like when I took them last month against Houston and they were outgained 481-382, yet still came away w/ a relatively easy 46-40 victory due to three Cougars turnovers. Then we move to the L2 weeks. They somehow beat Notre Dame, 28-27 as seven-point dogs, despite allowing the Fighting Irish to score on every single drive except one. Last week against Tulsa, they were outgained 576-501, but managed to hold on for a 42-40 despite it appearing they fumbled w/ under two minutes to go and that should have given Tulsa the ball. (Refs didn't see it that way). Navy has been a solid money-maker the last several seasons under Niumatalolo, but this will be the most points they've laid to a FBS opponent all year. As I said before, East Carolina is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog the L5 seasons and not only did they upset NC State back in September (33-30, +6.5), they upset Va Tech last year. In fact, three of those four games have seen the Pirates prevail outright! Navy does not have a great pass defense and despite it's 7-2 SU record has actually been outgained this year! By the way, this is a make-up game as it was originally to be played on 10.13 but was postponed due to Hurricane Matthew. It's also a revenge spot for ECU as they lost 45-21 in Annapolis LY as only five-point dogs. 8* East Carolina |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma State v. TCU -4.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -103 | 60 h 12 m | Show |
*10* TCU (12:00 ET): I absoutely love this spot for the Horned Frogs, who are an unranked team favored over the #13 team in the country. I don't have the exact record in front of me, but it's always a trap when the unranked team is favored against a Top 25 opponent as in the public will tend to bite on the ranked dog, often to no avail. Furthermore, TCU is off their second bye in four weeks. While they did not fare well the last time off the bye (lost 34-10), that was a trip into Morgantown. After following w/ another disappointing overtime loss (as 10-pt favorites) at home to Texas Tech, Gary Patterson's team picked up - by far - its most impressive win to date as it thrashed Baylor in Waco, 62-22 as seven-point dogs (I was on them) two weeks ago. While they're now rested, OSU is off a tough 45-44 home win over Texas Tech LW that came down to a missed XP and they gave up 500+ yards. This is also their fifth game in as many weeks. Lay the points. Situationally, I love the Horned Frogs here and it's a revenge spot to boot. Last year, in what was a battle of unbeatens (both 8-0 SU), they lost outright in Stillwater 49-29. TCU was #5 in the country then and OSU was #12. Fast forward to this year and because of that result plus the Horned Frogs' disappointing record, we are able to now get a cheaper price in Ft. Worth. Homefield has proven vital in past meetings between these two as the host is 9-1-1 SU all-time. Shockingly, TCU has lost three home games this year - two in overtime - after losing none (13-0 SU) the previous two seasons. The three losses, to Arkansas, Oklahoma & Texas Tech, have come by a combined 12 points. By the way, despite losing LY's game to the Pokes by 20, the Horned Frogs actually outgained them 663-456 (were -4 in TO's)! As maligned as QB Kenny Hill has been this year by the TCU faithful, he is on pace to break the single season passing record at the school. This offense also ran for 431 yards two weeks ago in Waco. Oklahoma State is by no means as dominant as their 8-2 SU record shows. While the manner in which they lost to Central Michigan was ridiculous, they also did lose to Baylor by 11. A five-game win streak has followed, but three of those wins have come by seven points or less. OK State is 6-1 in Big 12 play, but just +32 yards per game. Meanwhile, TCU is 3-3 SU in Big 12 play, but +43.2 YPG. Yes, the better team is favored. 10* TCU |
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11-18-16 | Loyola-Chicago +5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 57-71 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (12:30 ET): I'm looking to go against St. Joe's here simply because the Hawks owe the books some money. What do I mean by that? Well, last year saw them finish w/ one of the best ATS records in the country (24-11). In fact, no team covered MORE games. Earlier this week, recall we faded another team that was quite profitable last year (IPFW) and they were blown out. Here we can grab points at a neutral location (Virgin Islands) w/ a team that has already won three times this year. That would be Loyola Chicago, who has predictably dominated three overmatched foes by an average of 37.4 points per game. Meanwhile, St. Joe's was lucky to escape Toledo in the opener before a hot shooting night enabled them to get by Columbia. There hasn't been a game yet where Loyola has failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor while holding the opponent under 37%. Of course, Alcorn State, Indiana-Northwest and Eurkea is a real "rogue's gallery." But dominating those teams is what was expected from the Ramblers and exactly what they delivered. In the past, this team has taken advantage of getting the points as in a 22-12 ATS record the L2 seasons as an underdog. While picked to finish near the bottom of the Missouri Valley, this is already the best start for the program since '97. The three big wins have given this team some confidence. Remember they nearly upset Wichita State in the MWC Tourney last year. Milton Doyle (16.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is a great player and a couple of key transfers have made this roster much better than we've seen in past years. As for St. Joe's, they are by no means as strong as last year's 28-8 SU squad. Their two best players - DeAndre Bembry and Isaiah Miles - both departed. One returning player (Pierfrancesco Oliva) is already out for the year and another - James Demery - is dealing with a foot injury and listed as questionable here. We saw the Hawks struggle in the opener - at home - against Toledo. That was a game they trailed most of the first half and never led by more than four points. They won't shoot as well here in the Virgin Islands as they did vs. Columbia. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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11-17-16 | Saints v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:25 ET): Both of these teams are off brutal losses last week. Fortunately, I can say I went AGAINST the Saints as they lost in one of the wildest ways I've ever seen, a blocked XP returned for a GW two-point conversion. They had just tied Denver 23-23 when the deciding play took place. Either way, I was not in danger as I had the Broncos +3. But, still, it's always nice to see one of those plays go your way. New Orleans, in my mind, has greatly exceeded expectations this year. They are 4-5 SU SU, but it wasn't that long ago that they were 0-3 SU and most (myself included) were writing the epitaph for the Drew Brees-Sean Payton era. I think that despite the Panthers' problems, the road team is way overvalued in this one and I'll be laying the points. Carolina has probably been the league's biggest disappointment to this juncture. No matter how you sliced it, regression was going to be a reality for this team coming off LY's 15-1 SU campaign. It should be pointed out however that no team that has won 15 or more games in a regular season has won fewer than 10 the subsequent season. At 3-6 SU right now, the Panthers are definitely threatening to become the first. But despite this poor record, they haven't played that poorly. It's just that many of the bounces that went their way in 2015 have gone against them here in 2016. They led the league in turnover margin LY (+20). This year, they are 29th (-7). Four of their six losses have been by three points or less. They outgained Kansas City last week, 341-256, but shockingly blew a 17-0 lead. The Chiefs never led until the final play. This is also a revenge spot for the Panthers, who lost 41-38 in New Orleans back in Week 6. Their secondary was torched by Brees (400+ yds) in that game, but it was obviously played in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. It's no secret that when you take the Saints outdoors, their offensive production tends to go down significantly. That's what I expect here. Carolina's defense has looked a lot better since the bye, admittedly facing some weak offensive opponents. But they didn't give up a touchdown last week and are allowing just 311.7 YPG the L3 weeks. As a home favorite of three points or less, the Panthers are 7-2 SU/ATS L3 years. Thursday night games tend to favor the superior team, especially when they're at home, and despite what the records say, Carolina is the superior team here. Consider that the lookahead line for this game (posted in the summer) was Carolina -10. This is a really great value play. 10* Carolina |
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11-17-16 | 76ers v. Wolves -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Though they let me down in the last game, I'm coming back with the T'wolves here. Despite a poor 3-7 SU/ATS record, they have actually outscored opponents this season by 1.8 PPG. Only ten teams have a better point differential. They rank third in the league in offensive efficiency, behind only Golden State and Toronto. How is it that they have all these impressive stats, but an unimpressive record? Well, the "issue" is that all three of their wins have been lopsided blowouts. Those wins came at the expense of Memphis, Orlando and the Lakers, two of them here at home. Here, the opponent can't be any worse as it's Philadelphia and this is a rare spot to actually fade the 76ers off a win! Lay the points. When I first checked the score Tuesday night, I was happy w/ what I saw. Minnesota led a tough Charlotte team by double digits at the break (were +2) and seemed well on their way to snapping an 0-14 SU skid when off a double digit win (they had blown out the Lakers by 26 Sunday night, my 10* Game of the Week). Unfortunately, what followed was a dreadful third quarter that saw them get outscored 36-17. This was not the first time the T'wolves have blown a double digit lead this season. In fact, it was the sixth time! In eight of the team's 10 games this year, they have led by double digits at some point in the first half. The third quarter has been a killer all year long and defensively the team needs work (28th in efficiency). Fortunately for tonight, they face the worst offensive team in the sport. Philadelphia averages a woeful .947 points per possession, last in the league. Only four other teams are under 1.00 PPP. Per 100 possessions, the Sixers are being outscored by 12 points, which is also (easily) the worst mark in the league. They did beat Washington last night, 109-102, as seven-point dogs. But frankly, the Wizards aren't very good. Note this is a virtually identical setup to the last time Philly was off a win. After upsetting Indiana at home, they had to go on the road the following night and w/o rest got blown out by Atlanta, 117-96. They've failed to cover both game this year when unrested, losing by an average of 17.5 PPG. 10* Minnesota |
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11-17-16 | Elon -4.5 v. South Florida | Top | 74-61 | Win | 100 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
10* Elon (7:00 ET): This line has skyrocketed, but may have reached it apex. Regardless, I would bet ASAP. To the casual observer, this seems like a curious game to experience such a significant line move. However, USF is still w/o Jahmal McMurray, who is expected to be suspended for the first six games of the year for an "undisclosed violation." This is a significant loss for the Bulls. McMurray was their top returning scorer from a year ago (15.2 PPG). At times, he was the only reliable offensive option for a team that would finish 8-25 SU overall. An 84-73 win over non-lined Florida A&M does little to dissuade me that USF is going to be in a lot of trouble w/o their best player. Lay the points here. Elon College, who comes by way of the Colonial, and is off a wild 100-95 loss to Charlotte Monday where they were 4.5-pt home favorites. No the game did not into overtime. While overall shooting was actually in favor of the Phoenix, what ultimately undid them was the three-point line. Charlotte shot a preposterous 10 of 14 from three-point range. Elon took nearly twice as many three-point shots (26), but made one less. I can't stress enough how rare it is to see a team go 10 of 14 from three-point range. South Florida certainly won't, that's for sure. Furthermore, the FT line hurt Elon on Monday as well. They were only 18 of 26 from the charity stripe while Charlotte went 22 of 26. Considering they scored 100 pts in their season opener (vs. lightly regarded William Peace), I don't think the Phoenix will have much trouble scoring here. These schools have never met before. Look for Elon's Steven Santa Ana to be the difference maker here. He went for 32 points in the last game and made five three-pointers. As far as the price range goes, Elon is 10-3 ATS as a road fave of 3.5 to 6 points, including 2-0 the L3 seasons. USF is 6-18 ATS as a home dog in that same range, including 0-4 the L3 seasons. Bottom line is that the oddsmakers made this line way too low and will pay for it. 10* Elon |
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11-16-16 | Ball State +20.5 v. Toledo | Top | 19-37 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
8* Ball State (7:00 ET): This is not a good spot for Toledo to be laying nearly three touchdowns. First off, they are fresh off erasing the ghosts of many years' past by beating rival Northern Illinois last week, 31-24 as seven-point chalk, on the road. That win snapped a six-game losing streak to the Huskies. Next week, the Rockets have a huge showdown w/ unbeaten Western Michigan, which likely will determine the MAC West. So to say 4-6 Ball State won't have UT's full attention might be a mild understatement. I'm taking the boatload of points w/ the underdog in this one. Ball State comes in having failed to cover four in a row. But it should be noted that they were favored in three of those contests. Twice they lost outright, including the last game (vs. Eastern Michigan), so the oddsmakers were off in their view of this team. But, as we so often see, there's now been an overreaction in the marketplace. Earlier in the year, the team had no issues covering a 12.5-pt spot at Central Michigan. That's their lone cover in the L6 games, but not coincidentally the only time the oddsmakers had been more than generous. Believe it or not, the Cardinals have been favored in six of their last eight games. They are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season and only been outscored by an average of less than two points per game! After posting B2B victories over Toledo in 2012 and '13 (both winning years for the program), BSU has lost each of the last two seasons. Last year was a 24-10 defeat in Muncie (as 5-pt dogs), a game that really wasn't very competitive. But the Cardinals are definitely better this year under Mike Neu and I'm not convinced Toledo is as strong. To me, anything above 17 points is a bargain here. Keep in mind that last week BSU led Eastern Michigan 21-0 before imploding. They were still ahead 41-40 w/ 1:35 remaining, however (lost 47-41). A -9 TO margin has done them no favors this season (had five LW). Toledo, meanwhile, trailed NIU by double digits in the second half before rallying for the SU victory. They were slightly outgained for the contest. Though possibly w/o their star RB James Gilbert (now listed as probable though!), the Cardinals have enough weapons on offense (525 yds LW) to keep it close thanks to a leaky Toledo defense. 8* Ball State |
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11-16-16 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Illinois State -6.5 | Top | 57-75 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
8* Illinois State (7:00 ET): Unless you're a real college basketball die-hard (like me!), then you are probably unaware that IPFW was one of the best ATS teams in the nation last year. The Mastadons were an impressive 21-8 at the betting window, the best such record for any team that played more than seven lined games. True to form, they covered in this year's season opener at Arkansas. As 15-pt road underdogs, they lost 92-83. They've since played another game, which was not lined, and beat Kenyon College 117-60. That's a meaningless result. Tonight, they visit Normal, IL and I feel the result will be "anything but normal" for IPFW, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned as the number is way too small. Lay the points. Illinois State dropped its season opener, as a two-point road favorite at Murray State. It was a back and forth game throughout w/ things not decided until a GW three-pointer was made w/ 1.5 seconds remaining. Note that the biggest lead in the game - eight points - was held by ISU. The Redbirds also led by seven w/ 3:23 remaining. So it was a tough loss. A big problem is that while they shot at roughly the same percentage as Murray State from three-point range, the Racers made twice as many. That's an 18-point edge right there, which is tough to overcome on the road. Murray State is also a good team, certainly better than IPFW. It speaks volumes that ISU was favored on the road against them. IPFW will not shoot better than 60% again like they did vs. Kenyon. Note they shot just 36.2% against Arkansas. Illinois State is 24-8 SU its L32 home games. They have also won 28 of the last 37 times (straight up) they have been favored. With the number so short here, I like the Redbirds to win and cover. 8* Illinois State |
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11-15-16 | Hornets v. Wolves +2 | Top | 115-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): I'm bucking some pretty serious history w/ this play. Over the past three seasons, the T'wolves are 0-14 straight up (3-11 ATS) when coming off a double digit win. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark already this season. But, despite what you've just read, I'll be taking them at home tonight against Charlotte. This is a much better Minnesota than in years' past and while they are only 3-6 SU so far, their three double digit wins have resulted in a positive point differential for the season (+4.0 per 100 possessions). They are #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only annual leader Golden State. Charlotte has been impressive in its own right so far, but I expect them to start coming back down to Earth. Take the points. While their three wins have come by a total of 78 points, the T'wolves' six losses have been by a total of only 53 points. Two of the losses were to OKC and the Clippers. The other four were all single digit defeats, three of them by four points or less. Typically, and this goes for all sports, point differential and the ability to win by large margins are better predictors of future success (or lack of it) than a team's actual record. In the case of Minnesota, I like what I've seen and right now would consider them to be the leading contender to nab the 8-seed in the Western Conference. My *10* Game of the Week Sunday was on them as they destroyed the Lakers 125-99, paced by a career-high 47 points from Andrew Wiggins. I actually like Karl-Anthony Towns even more, so there's a real solid foundation for 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau. This is a tough spot for Charlotte following B2B close losses to Toronto and Cleveland. Expect this team to still finish in the top 4-5 of the Eastern Conference as their strong second half LY went largely unnoticed. But, as I just said, I just don't like the spot. Yes, they are 5-1 ATS laying points thus far and surprisingly that includes three road games. But this is only the Hornets' fifth road game overall and the previous three teams they were favored against - Milwaukee, Miami and Brooklyn - should all be considered inferior to this opponent. Jeremy Lamb is still out for the visitors as well. 8* Minnesota |
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11-15-16 | Southern Miss v. LSU -17 | Top | 61-78 | Push | 0 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* LSU (8:00 ET): This will be my second time going w/ LSU in this young season. Given my record, you should already have concluded that the first went well. It did as they beat up on Wofford, 91-69 as only a seven-point choice. Now, they face another team off a high scoring Opening Night win, that being Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles come off a 101-96 victory, but that was with double overtime and against a team named "Tougaloo," a NAIA school. Win or not, that result is certainly not a good sign when stepping up in class from a NAIA opponent to one from the SEC. Meanwhile, this is probably a DROP in class for LSU. Lay the points. Little defense was played in that USM-Tougaloo matchup. How do I know? Well, look no further than the box score which reveals that the Golden Eagles shot 56.7% from the floor, including 7 of 14 from three-point range. I don't see a duplication of those numbers tonight, in fact, I see a massive dropoff. Unfortunately, that coincides with a worrisome USM defense which permitted a NAIA school to shoot better than 50% - on the road. Speaking of the road, it has not been kind to USM in recent years, particularly in this price game. The team is just 3-25 SU in true road games the L3 seasons not to mention 0 for its last 42 as a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. LSU, on the other hand, is 26-7 SU its L33 home games including nine straight victories as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. They are 47-2 L49 at -12.5 or higher in Baton Rouge. Two years ago, they downed Southern Miss by 20 here (were 17-point favorites). Just to rehash from my analysis Friday: though it is by no means "addition by subtraction," I think this team will be better off this year w/o Ben Simmons, who often struggled to integrate himself into the flow of the offense. Another positive in that the Tigers won't be consistently overvalued. Remember, at one point last season, they were 9-3 SU in SEC play! 8* LSU |
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11-15-16 | Delaware v. La Salle -15.5 | Top | 68-74 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Similar to yday's play on Nevada, we will use fairly "worthless" results to our advantage in handicapping this game. Delaware is 2-0 SU, but one of those wins came at the expense of something called "Goldey-Beacom." The Blue Hens did, and I give them credit here, upset Bradley their last time out as eight-point underdogs. Yet they're even more significant dogs for tonight's trip to Philly as they take on LaSalle. This despite the host Explorers being off an outright loss (were -2.5) at cross-town rival Temple Friday. That was an overtime game for the record. Given Temple just lost last night at home to New Hampshire, one might seek to conclude that this seems like a "real steal" to take the points. But the oddsmakers clearly aren't buying it and nor am I. Had the results discussed above not unfolded they way they did, one has to wonder what this line would have been. I think LaSalle should be commended for still getting to 92 points despite shooting only 42.3% against Temple, including 9 of 28 from three-point range. I think that it's more than reasonable to expect the Explorers to shoot better tonight in their own gym. Yes, overtime aided them in getting to 92 points, but scoring 81 in regulation is "nothing to sneeze at." This is a relatively deep team now, with two freshman starting. Ten different players saw action Friday and all of them have started at one point or another in their careers. Though they're 2-0, I see Delaware really struggling to keep pace in this one. They've scored just 64 and 63 points in their two wins and beat a D-II school by just eight points. They've shot no better than LaSalle to this point and have actually been worse from three-point range (27.6%). So you can see that one team obviously plays at a much faster pace. A key to the Blue Hens success so far has been atrocious shooting from their opponents. Both Goldey-Beacom and Bradley shot 32% from the field. Sure, the Delaware defense needs to be credited there, but only to a point. LaSalle will shoot better, play faster and is simply the Blue Hens' most talented opponent yet. I expect a blowout here, so lay the points. 10* LaSalle |
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11-15-16 | Ohio v. Central Michigan +1 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Ohio finds itself in strong shape to win the MAC East (they have the tiebreak over Miami b/c of head to head). All they have to do is win one of these final two games, this one vs. Central Michigan or the home finale vs. Akron, and they'll get a chance to possibly face Western Michigan and cost the conference millions of dollars. (W Michigan is unbeaten and if they win out will go to a New Year's Six Bowl Game). Unfortunately for Frank Solich and his Bobcats, I believe the division clinching win won't come until next week. Yes, it appears as if they and Central Michigan are heading in opposite directions, but the Chippewas get this one at home and still are looking to become bowl eligible. I'm going with them Tuesday night. Bowl eligibility looked like a mere formality after CMU started the season 3-0 SU and found itself favored to beat a Power 5 school (Virginia) on the road back on September 24th. But the Chippewas lost that game to Virginia, 49-35, and have been in free fall mode ever since. They are just 2-5 SU the L7 games overall and have lost B2B games outright as the favorite. First, as 12-pt chalk here in Mt. Pleasant, they lost 27-24 to Kent State. Then, two Fridays ago, they were humbled by resurgent Miami 37-17 in Oxford. Because they are 1-6 ATS these L7 games, now they're not even favored to win on Senior Day. The players do not want to leave their bowl fate up to next week's road date w/ Eastern Michigan. Besides, a 6-6 SU MAC team is by no means guaranteed a bowl. It would behoove CMU to win out. Motivation aside, I think the situation and matchup is favorable to the home team here as well. This is Ohio's third time playing on the road in the last four games. While they're perfect 5-0 ATS away from Athens this year, the Bobcats have been held under 20 points in three of those games. While they beat Buffalo 34-10 their last time out (Nov 3), it was a 413-392 total yardage disadvantage for Solich's team. It was a 27-10 game at halftime due to a bevy of Buffalo miscues, two of which resulted in Ohio scoring drives that totaled ONE yard (two FG's)! Central Michigan once explosive offense will get things going against an Ohio pass defense which has given up 741 passing yds the L2 games. Chips QB Cooper Rush, a three-year starter, still has an outside shot at becoming his school's all-time passing leader w/ a strong finish. 10* Central Michigan |
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11-14-16 | Loyola Marymount v. Nevada -11.5 | Top | 64-79 | Win | 103 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
8* Nevada (10:00 ET): Both teams here already have a game played under their respective belts. Given the pointspread for tonight's matchup, you might be surprised to learn how those first games each went. Then again, considering Loyola Marymount's opponent was something named "Vanguard University" (NAIA school), I think it goes w/o saying that a win there was all but assured. But just to show how little that result meant, the Lions are still sizable underdogs to Nevada here despite the Wolfpack taking it on the chin in their opener (at St. Mary's). We'll use these results to our advantage here as I believe the home team to be significantly undervalued as a result. Lay the points. There are some wild shooting numbers to report on from each team's game on Friday. LMU saw Vanguard University shoot a preposterously low 23.2% from the floor (16-69) including 1 of 18 from three-point range. Those Lions (also Vanguard's nickname) had no "roar" whatsoever as they shot an unconscionable 5 of 35 after halftime and finished w/ only 17 pts in the second half! Needless to say, when LMU jumped out to a 20-2 lead, the game was basically over. But let's not make any conclusions that LMU is significantly better than we thought because of that result, which was a glorified exhibition game. This team is being picked to finish near the bottom of the West Coast Conference and is outside the Top 200 in most reputable power rankings systems. Nevada ran into one of the top WCC teams Friday night, that being St. Mary's, who shot 60 percent from the floor en route to an 81-63 victory. I don't know what it is about the Gaels and early season home games, but they always seem to shoot ridiculously well in them. Keep in mind that St. Mary's opened the year ranked #17 in the country, so this is a massive drop in class for the Wolfpack. I have seen this team projected for as high as a third place finish in the Mountain West this year. Loyola Marymount was very bad defensively last year (allowed 74.8 PPG) and beat only ONE top 150 RPI team all year, that being Pepperdine in double OT. Home team rolls in this one. 8* Nevada |
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11-14-16 | Bengals v. Giants | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (8:25 ET): A significant line move took place during the week on this Monday Night matchup w/ the Bengals going from a small dog to either a pick or small favorite. This might seem curious to you as the Giants have been an ever so slightly better team in the first half of the season and are at home. But Cincy is in off its bye and should be in position to turn in one of their best performances to date. The last time we saw them, they tied another NFC East team (Washington). When you look at who they've lost to this year (Steelers, Broncos, Cowboys, Patriots) there's certainly no shame there. The Giants were kind to me last week as I had them in a win and cover over the Eagles. But they were outgained there and pretty fortunate to win thanks to two early Carson Wentz interceptions. I'm on the Bengals here. The Bengals posted one of the best ATS records in the league last season as they finished 12-3-2. That typically leads to an overrating in the marketplace the following year, so I'm not surprised to see them currently standing at just 2-5 ATS. Still though, despite the perception that this team has taken a massive step back, offensively at least, it really hasn't. QB Andy Dalton is third in the league in yards per attempt (8.16). WR AJ Green is #1 in the league in receptions and #2 in receiving yards. This passing attack should find success against a Giants defense that is ranked 25th against the pass and is dead last in the league in sacks w/ 11. Though outgained somewhat significantly by the Redskins in London, it should be pointed out Cincy led that game by double digits in the third quarter. Given how top heavy the AFC has become, it is almost imperative that the Bengals win tonight or their playoff chances get even slimmer. The Giants have won and covered three straight games to get back in the thick of a tight NFC East race. While they never trailed the Eagles last week, they were essentially gifted a 14-0 lead and had to hold on from there. They barely gained over 300 yds in the contest while at the same time giving up 443. This offense simply cannot run the ball effectively as they are dead last in the league, averaging just 68.3 YPG! Over the L10 NFL seasons, home teams averaging less than 70 YPG rushing are 7-23 ATS when failing to run for 100 in any of the L3 games. To me, this one boils down to the fact the Bengals are a little better than their overall record shows while the G-Men are a little worse. 10* Cincinnati |
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11-13-16 | Seahawks +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 3 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:25 ET): I respect New England and like everyone else have them as my #1 rated team in the league right now. But the idea of Seattle getting this many points is too good to pass up. Since 2012, the year Russell Wilson became the team's QB, there has been only one occasion where the Seahawks have been getting a touchdown or more. It was in that 2012 season and as eight-point dogs they covered in San Francisco (Thurs night game), a 13-6 loss. Yes, it's a short week for the 'Hawks and the Pats are off a bye. But Seattle just doesn't get blown out as both losses this year have come by six points or less. Just twice since '12 have they lost a game by more than a TD. Those losses came by 9 and 10 points respectively and both were one-score games entering the fourth quarter. Take the points. This is of course a rematch from the Super Bowl two years ago and that will dominate the headlines. The Patriots won that day, 28-24, but as well all know it should have been Seattle repeating as SB champs as Wilson was interecepted at the goal line on a foolish play call. That game, obviously, at a neutral field, was a pick em. I don't think enough has changed since that time to justify this line, even w/ the Patriots being at home. Tom Brady has been terrific, but lost in the numbers is the fact he's faced some really weak teams. Remember that the Pats got a major break facing Pittsburgh w/o Roethlisberger. At home this year, New England has actually been outgained. The Seattle defense has been a bit shaky in recent weeks, but gets safety Kam Chancellor back tonight, which is critical. The defense is still allowing only 16.7 PPG for the year and allows fewer YPG than does the Patriots. In what projects as a low-scoring affair (yes!), taking the points is the way to go. I look for the Seahawks to feel disrespected by the line here and come out w/ a chip on their shoulder. I would not be the least bit surprised to see Seattle play its best game since the bye week. They covered the only other time they were a dog this year, which was the tie at Arizona. Remember about the edge West Coast teams usually have in primetime games (look up 'Circadian Advantage'). 10* Seattle |
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11-13-16 | Lakers v. Wolves -4 | Top | 99-125 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): The T'wolves let me down last night, losing to the Clippers 119-105. While there's no shame in losing to the best team in the league right now, I had thought Minny could at least take advantage of a generous spread at home w/ LA coming in off a hard fought victory (at OKC) the night before. The problem was they fell behind early and could never really recover. That's a rarity as the T'wolves entered last night as the highest scoring first quarter team in the league. They've blown multiple double digit leads already and I feel they're far better than the 2-6 SU record as they are still own a positive point differential for the season! Meanwhile, it's probably about that time to start fading the Lakers. They've won five of six, including a 126-99 beatdown of New Orleans last night, on the road no less. For those struggling to explain the Lakers' surprising succes this year, it's actually pretty easy. They removed the biggest ballhog in league history from their lineup (you know who) and the offense has improved dramatically. But that offense still hasn't been as efficient as Minnesota's has been. I take a look at this line and can't help but feel its decreased far too much from what it would have been just a few days ago. I give the Lakers credit, but they are clearly playing "above themselves right now" and it's only a matter of time before they begin to regress, in my view. Playing in the second game of a back to back has not been kind to the Lakers in the past; they are just 5-30 SU in that spot the L3 seasons! Yes, they did beat Atlanta earlier in the year w/o rest. Double digits wins like last night have been rare for this team in recent years and they are just 3-9 SU/4-8 ATS off a DD win of any kind the L3 seasons. Last night saw the team shoot better than 55% from the floor (!) and that can't possibly carry over to tonight's game. If anything, LA is due for an off-shooting night. Again, in terms of efficiency, the T'wolves have been the better offensive team this year. To sum it all up, what we have here is one team that's been overperforming its expectations by a wide margin and another that's undeperforming. I look for a return to normalcy tonight. 10* Minnesota |
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11-13-16 | Cowboys v. Steelers -1 | Top | 35-30 | Loss | -125 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): In a season bereft of compelling storylines, I gotta ask - "How 'bout them Cowboys!?" Dallas is 7-1 SU, which is the best record in the NFC, and for our purposes they come in w/ the best overall spread record in the league (7-0-1 ATS). Since pushing against the Giants in Week 1 (only SU loss), they have covered seven consecutive games. They've been the underdog in three of them, but not the last two when they took on Philadelphia and Cleveland. A 35-10 win over the moribund Browns needs no investigation, but it should be pointed out they needed OT to get by the Eagles. While I tip my cap to the job done being done by HC Jason Garrett and certainly QB Dak Prescott, I'll argue that the Steelers are the Cowboys toughest opponent to date. In a must win for the Black & Gold, I'll lay the points. Now may not seem like the proper time to stump for Pittsburgh. They've lost three in a row, including 21-14 at Baltimore last week. That marked Ben Roethlisberger's return from injury, but he and the offense simply didn't look the same. Some of that, however, has to do with facing one of the league's top defenses. In fact, the Ravens are giving up the fewest yards per game in the league right now (281.6) and only 17.8 PPG (6th). Dallas is actually fourth in points allowed (17.5), but 10th in yards, so there's some bend but don't break there. They've also been lucky to face some pretty weak offenses. I anticipate a big bounce back from the Steelers offense here. In three home games w/ Big Ben at the helm, this offense has averaged 32.6 PPG w/ the QB posting a 12-2 TD-INT ratio. Roethlisberger was actually a lot better in the second half after the slow start LW. Historically, there is a lot of value in taking the Steelers as a home favorite of three points or less. They are 6-1 SU/ATS the L3 seasons in that price range. The three-game losing streak is also key as it's very rare to find Mike Tomlin's team on this kind of slide. This is just the third time in his tenure that they've lost this many in a row. Coming off a division loss, they are 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS the L3 seasons. Dallas is due to drop one. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-13-16 | 49ers +13.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 65 h 58 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This is a time to "hold your nose" and take the points. There's no doubt that Cleveland is the worst team in the league this season, but there's also no doubt that San Francisco is 31st. They come into Week 10 at 1-7 SU and ATS. That lone win and cover came all the way back in Week 1 when they beat the Rams 28-0. Since then, it's been seven straight ATS losses where every defeat has come by at least a touchdown. Five have been by at least 17 points. None of that can make this play sound even the least bit appealing, but this is one of the biggest spreads of the year so far this NFL season and in a division game, it's an automatic take for me. Arizona is off its bye and there's a case that they're much better than their 3-4-1 SU record. They have a +39 point differential for the year, which is largely owed to a pair of blowout, one over Tampa Bay, the other against the Jets. But also recall, I played against this team two weeks ago (was my *10* Game of the Week) when they lost out in Carolina, 30-20. The game was not as close as the final score indicated as they were down 24-0 late in the first half. This is quite the banged up team right now w/ 10 players currently on season-ending IR. The loss of LT Jared Veldheer looms large for an offensive line that was already struggling to protect Carson Palmer. By the way, this offense has seen its production go way down from last year. They've been held to 21 pts or less in five of eight games. On the defensive side of the ball, the Cards will be w/o Tyrann Mathieu here and that is another huge loss. Mathieu is the key player for Bruce Arians' defense. Note that this is the second meeting of the year between these two. The first saw Arizona win 33-21, but total yardage was basically a wash (228-286) and the 49ers had more first downs (25-17). That was w/ Blaine Gabbert as QB as well for the Niners. Colin Kaepernick is an upgrade at the position and in the loss LW to the Saints, threw for nearly 400 yards. The Cardinals should feel lucky that they scored 33 pts despite < 300 yards and seven-game ATS losing streaks in this league are rare. Look for the dog to find a way to stay within this number. 10* San Francisco |
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11-13-16 | Rice +5 v. James Madison | Top | 94-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
8* Rice (2:00 ET): This little school in Dallas, TX was quite kind to me on Saturday as the football team (had just 1 game all season) went to Charlotte as 10.5-pt underdogs and won outright, a ~SIGNATURE~ 10* ULTIMATE POWER release! Now, I'll look to back the school's basketball program as they look to erase the memory of a bankroll busting campaign last season. The Owls finished 2015-16 at 7-18-2 ATS, which was the worst pointspread record in the country of any team that played at least 10 games. But they were only outscored by an average of 4.7 PPG. I'll make the case that it will be a nice little bounce back season for Mike Rhoades' team. Take the points. James Madison is the opponent for Rice on Sunday and the Dukes have already played a game. They lost it, 62-55, at Old Dominion. JMU did not shoot the ball well from any range, going just 39.6% overall, including 6 for 30 from three-point range. They also didn't help themselves the few times they got to the free throw line, going only 7 of 13 there. JMU actually led (by one) at the half, but allowed the first basket of the second half and trailed the rest of the way. Looking at the preseason CAA projections, the Dukes are a team expected to finish in the middle of the pack and remember that league isn't as strong as it once was. You may recall they went 21-11 SU a year ago, good for third in the league. But they were one and done in the conference tournament. Playing for a second time in three days, though it's early in the season, I don't think does this team any favors. Like JMU, Rice returns four starters from LY. Most notable is Marcus Evans, who led all freshman last year by averaging 21.4 points per game! Evans will be the best player on the floor Sunday afternoon. Not much is expected from the Owls this year (picked for 9th in C-USA), but I think they will exceed those low expectations. The problem for them last season was on the defensive end as they gave up 80.5 PPG, one of the worst marks in the entire country. There's just no way they don't see a decrease in that average. As we saw in their opener, JMU isn't a strong offensive team and they're just 13-27-1 ATS L41 home games. 8* Rice |
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11-13-16 | Broncos +3 v. Saints | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): Quite frankly, I'm pretty shocked at this line. Denver has been a dog only three other times this season. Once was at home, on Opening Night, vs. Carolina. That was clearly a mistake as they won that Super Bowl rematch. They also won at Cincinnati outright, getting 3.5. Last week, closing lines may vary, but I'm using a one-point line and there the Broncos failed to cover, instead losing to Oakland 30-20. Still, that was their first ever ATS loss as a dog under HC Gary Kubiak (7-1-1 all-time) and I love them taking pts here against a Saints team which is back to the role of favoritism after spending much of the year as a dog. Despite a pair of close wins over Carolina and Seattle, New Orleans' homefield advantage isn't what it once was. Take the points. The Saints opened the year 0-3 SU, losing on the final play to both the Raiders and Giants. The last time they were favored here at home was Week 3 and they were blitzed by division rival Atlanta, losing that game 45-32. From that point on, they were a dog in four straight games, including the home dates vs. Carolina and Seattle which they won by a combined eight points. Their other win during that stretch was a gift courtesy of San Diego, who literally fumbled away that game. Last week brought arguably their most "complete" game of the season (won 41-23), but it was against San Francisco, who turned the ball over four times. Even with that cover, it should be pointed out that NO is only 7-16-1 ATS the L24 times it has been favored, not to mention 10-14 straight up! The Broncos not only have the better record, but the better point differential here as well (+48 vs. +4). In fact, only three other teams - Patriots, Cowboys, Eagles - have a better YTD point differential than Denver. Yes, it stinks they will be w/o both CB Aqib Talib and DE Derek Wolfe Sunday. But if there's a defense here that you'd want to worry about, it's still the Saints, who allow 29.7 points an 400+ yards per game. Those numbers both get worse here at home. Denver is still #1 in the league against the pass (183.3 YPG), so look for them to keep Drew Brees in relative check. Meanwhile, the Saints' defense ranks dead last in the league against the pass! 8* Denver |
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11-12-16 | Clippers v. Wolves +4 | Top | 119-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Interestingly enough, my own personal power rankings indicate that the Clippers should be favored by MORE in this contest. But two things need to be taken into account here. One is that the Clips are playing in the second game of a back to back. Often times, we find teams undervalued in this role, but note here as they will have been favored (on the road) both times. Secondly, as good as LA has been to this point of the season (8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS), it is highly doubtful that they'll be able to maintain their current pace where they've been outscoring opponents by an incredible 14.9 points per 100 possessions! Off the tough game last night at OKC, the Clips are ripe to be upset. Take the points. Minnesota might be 2-5 SU, but they are better than their record. Believe it or not, they are outscoring their opponents by almost four points per 100 possessions. They are 4th in offensive efficiency. Both of their wins have been blowouts. The last one, three nights ago, saw them go to Orlando and prevail 123-107 as 2.5-point pups. In retrospect, that was an awful line. Three of the T'wolves losses this year have been by four points or less and they blew double digits leads in all of them. There is a chance PG Ricky Rubio could return tonight, which would be a big boost. Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Wiggins form a strong young core. I do believe that 1st year HC Tom Thibodeau will improve the defense. Right now, I'm leaning towards this team being the #8 seed in the Western Conference. The Clips played their worst defensive game of the season last night against OKC, giving up 108 points. That may not seem that shocking to you, but consider that the Thunder rank in the bottom six in the league in offensive efficiency. To reiterate, Minnesota is fourth in that department. The Clips still are giving up only .92 points per possession. There is simply no way they will be able to maintain that average. The Clips have looked good in the back end of both back to backs this year, but eventually the roll has to slow down. It was a two-point game last night in OKC (won 110-108) and it was essentially close throughout. Can this resurgent LA bench really continue to be trusted? 10* Minnesota |
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11-12-16 | Michigan v. Iowa +21.5 | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 54 h 43 m | Show |
10* Iowa (8:00 ET): There is a massive discrepancy between the spread here and what it was back in the summer. The lookahead line was Michigan laying only 4.5, but due to a combination of the Wolverines still being unbeaten (9-0 SU) and Iowa a major disappointment, we have seen a shift to more than three touchdowns. I believe this to be a very tricky spot for Jim Harbaugh's team. The spotlight is now on them more than ever as they fight to stay in the top four and laying this many points on the road against a desperate team may not be as easy as you think. Following LW's embarrassing 41-14 loss at Penn State. I expect some Hawkeye pride to kick in here, and in a "buy low" situation, I'll take the points. As impressive as the numbers have been for Michigan thus far, the schedule really hasn't been. Sure, wins over Colorado, Penn State and Wisconsin look impressive in retrospect, but all of those games were in Ann Arbor. Penn State was really banged up when Michigan played them. The Maize and Blue have played just two "true" road games all season long and one was against Rutgers. We all rememeber how that went. But the other was two weeks ago at Michigan State, a situation strikingly similar to this. Even more so than Iowa, Sparty has been a massive disappointment this year, but still was able to stay within a three TD spread throughout, losing only 32-23. I'd like to take this time to point out that MIchigan's last four opponents are a combined 4-20 SU in Big 10 play. Iowa entered LY's Big 10 Champ Game unbeaten (12-0) and would go on to lose to Michigan State 16-13. They were then destroyed in the Rose Bowl by Stanford, 45-16. This year, they have already lost four times, but before LW, none of those had been by more than eight points. A defense that's allowing only 21.3 PPG, essentially the spread for this game, should absolutely keep them in this thing throughout. One would have to go back a long way to find the last time Kirk Ferentz was this sizable of an underdog. The last time they were getting at least 17 was 2013 at Ohio State and they covered that game, losing only 34-24. As a home dog of any size, Ferentz is 6-2-1 ATS. 10* Iowa |
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11-12-16 | Wyoming v. UNLV +7.5 | Top | 66-69 | Win | 100 | 49 h 18 m | Show |
8* UNLV (3:30 ET): Wyoming got me last week, beating Utah State 52-28 as four-point chalk. In my defense, I was quite complimentary of the job Craig Bohl is doing here in Laramie and how could I not be? Last week's win improved them to 5-0 SU in Mountain West play and 7-2 SU overall. But, as is the case with every other team I'm fading in this three-pack, I remain leery of them in the chalk role, especially when on the road laying a big number. With the Pokes, LW's win and cover snapped a six-game ATS losing skid as a favorite that went back three years. Take note the game was also at home. While 5-0 SU in Laramie this year, they are just 2-2 SU on the road (1-2 ATS). That split is consistent w/ what we've seen from this program in recent seasons. Coming into this year, they'd dropped 16 of 18 road games. Wyoming has enjoyed some good fortune in this resurgent year such as three wins by eight points or less and a +6 turnover ratio. Really, they've been winning in spite of a defense that is pretty lousy. The Cowboys give up 32.5 PPG and 6.44 yards per play away from home. They allowed 500 yards in an outright road loss (were -6) at Eastern Michigan back on September 23rd. Since then, they've gone 4-0-1 ATS vs. the closing line. But they have a huge lookahead to fellow MWC unbeaten San Diego State next week, whom they'll host. Meanwhile, the Pokes figure to have the full attention of UNLV, who is off its bye and outright loss at San Jose State (as three-point favorites) the week before that. The Rebels are just 2-8 SU L10 vs. Wyoming, including three straight losses since 2011. But the last two were both decided by seven points or less and last year's game in Laramie was decided on a 62-yard TD pass w/ 2:28 remaining. That was the regular season finale and UNLV was actually a two-point favorite there! While Tony Sanchez's team has not won since 10/15, like I said they'll be quite eager to take the field here following a bye and B2B outright losses. This team was a short favorite against both Colorado State and San Jose State. But the last time they were a dog, they won outright at Hawaii. Sanchez is 0-4 ATS all-time as a home dog, but I look for the home team to do no worse than a cover Saturday afternoon in Vegas. The bye is huge for them as is the lookahead for Wyoming. 8* UNLV |
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11-12-16 | Vanderbilt v. Missouri -3.5 | Top | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 49 h 14 m | Show |
8* Missouri (3:30 ET): The betting patterns for this SEC tussle are by no means unprecedented, but they certainly qualify as unique. All week long, over 80% of the tickets written have been on the dog, Vanderbilt. But the line has gone UP and Missouri is now favored by more than they were at the open. That might seem a little curious given how Mizzou comes in on a 0-5 SU/ATS streak. Here at home, they've lost twice outright as a favorite - to Middle Tennessee and Kentucky - but Vandy is the weakest opponent they will have faced in some time. This is also a revenge spot for the Tigers, who lost an ugly 10-3 game LY in Nashville. I cannot see Mizzou, who I thought would be much better this year, continuing to slide. Lay the points. A big issue that I see for Vandy here is that it will be very hard for them to "get off the mat" following LW's close call vs. Auburn. This is the Commodores second straight road game, which is always a tough spot for any team. Last week, they were a little fortunate in that Auburn starting QB Sean White did not play in the first half (injury), thereby ensuring it would be a close game throughout. White came into the game w/ his team down 13-10. Of course, the Commies' own offense did little to help its own cause from that point on. They scored just three points after halftime, part of a continuing issue for Derek Mason. In conference play this year, Vandy is averaging a woeful 12.4 PPG! That's not going to cut it. The L4 times Vandy has covered, they have been a dog of 8.5 or more points every time out. Last week, I bought "low" on Ohio State, who was an undervalued favorite in their game vs. Nebraska. I by no means anticipate another 62-3 final here, but what I do expect is Missouri's best game of 2016 against a FBS foe. The offensive numbers here at home are somewhat skewed due to a 79-0 win over Delaware State. But they did score 45 against Middle Tennessee a few weeks later. Defensively, this was a strong team last year (16.2 PPG allowed) and it's been a major disappointment to see them regress in 2016 (allow 30.4 PPG). Last week, they faced South Carolina and the key was a -3 turnover margin for Mizzou as they outgained the Gamecocks (465-428). Vandy has won just 3 of its last 21 SEC games and is 4-20 SU L24 times as an underdog. 8* Missouri |
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11-12-16 | Rice +10.5 v. Charlotte | Top | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
10* Rice (2:00 ET): Shame on me, but I thought Rice was in a position to improve this season. They dropped to 5-7 SU LY, David Baliff's ninth season at the school. Instead, they've gone in the wrong direction and are currently in position to finish w/ the worst record in the Baliff era. The Owls have just one win and it came three weeks ago, at home vs. FCS opponent Prairie View, 65-44. But I happened to have cashed this team once this year and that was in a one-point loss to UTSA the week prior to their only win to date. The defense has been a disaster the L2 games, allowing over 100 pts and 1300 yards to La Tech and Fla Atlantic. But as I'm about to show, I don't think Charlotte's offense will be able to take advantage. Take the points. To say Charlotte's recent string of performances have come out of nowhere would be a mild understatement. The 49ers have won three of four, covering the spread every time out. This is just the program's fourth year of existence and second at the FBS level! The three wins over the last four weeks match their number of victories from the previous 17 games. This will be now be their first time EVER favored over a FBS foe and they're laying double digits. This is a clear overreaction by the marketplace after winning road games over FAU, Marshall and Southern Miss as 13, 8 and 17 point underdogs respectively. Last week, they beat Southern Miss 38-27 despite allowing 498 total yds. The key was the 49ers were +3 in turnovers. Consider that when these teams met in LY regular season finale, Rice was an 11-pt favorite and won 27-7. So there's been a massive swing in one year's time. Again, a lot of that does have to do w/ the decline of the Owls and admittedly, they aren't giving us much to work with here. But I keep coming back to the somewhat head-scratching proposition that Charlotte is favored. The 49ers' three wins over the last four weeks have come by a total of 19 points and two were by five points or less. This line certainly appears to be a case of putting "the cart before the horse." In my own personal power rankings, I would have this as a four-point spread, making this the biggest discrepancy of the week. 10* Rice |
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11-12-16 | Wofford v. LSU -8 | Top | 69-91 | Win | 100 | 5 h 57 m | Show |
8* LSU (2:00 ET): Last year, LSU was a massive bust at the betting window. Among teams that played more than seven lined games, they had one of the worst ATS records in the country at 11-20-1. That included a poor start to the year w/ an 0-5 (ATS) November. The issue was that they were overvalued because of Ben Simmons, who has now moved on to the NBA. Granted, the Tigers were not a bad team; they finished 19-14 SU and at one point were 9-3 SU in SEC play. But a bad finish, which culminated in an embarrassing 71-38 loss to Texas A&M in the conference tourney was "all she wrote." The team may not be better per se this year, but there is definitely more value in taking them at the window. Lay the points here. Wofford, who we've seen in the NCAA Tournament before, also comes in off a down year. They went 15-17 SU overall and finished 4-10 SU in non-conference play. This year, the Terriers are projected to finish third (I've seen as low as fifth) in the Southern Conference where everyone is chasing incumbent Chattanooga. Last year's leading scorer, Spencer Collins, graduated and that leaves some big shoes to fill. This will a young team this year w/ as many as six freshman possibly being asked to contribute. We saw last night w/ our play against Harvard what relying on so many young players can look like this early in the season. Call me crazy, but I think LSU may come together better than expected w/o Simmons. At times last year, it appeared as if the team did not understand how to utilize its superstar properly. Either they were too reliant, or didn't go to him nearly enough. I think that the coaching staff will have a real emphasis on starting the season strong consider the hole that was dug last year. Antonio Blakeney will be one of the top players in the SEC this year. Wofford is only 11-19 ATS in road games the last two seasons and as an underdog they are 7-13 SU/3-17 ATS. 8* LSU |
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11-12-16 | Miami (OH) v. Buffalo +10.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 48 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Teams unfamiliar w/ laying this kind of weight will be the prevailing theme in this three-pack. Here, we have Miami (OH) laying points on the road for the first time since 2011. Not only that, but they are double digit road chalk for the first time since 2005, when they were still in the shadow of the Big Ben era. After losing to Akron, 35-13, on October 8th this was a program that had dropped a somewhat unfathomable 40 of 45 games dating back to 2012. However, something shocking occurred last month and that's the Redhawks have produced a four-game win streak, every single time winning outright as a small dog. But now the role has changed and the value lies in fading them. Miami hosted Buffalo last year and was a seven-point dog. While they covered, they still lost the game, 29-24. Now, because of this four-game win streak, there has been a shocking change in the marketplace w/ them now laying more points on the road than they were getting at home LY. I have a ton of respect for the turnaround HC Chuck Martin has engineered in his three years here in Oxford and in fact I took the RedHawks just two weeks ago when they went to Ypsilanti and beat Eastern Michigan as seven-point dogs. They followed that up w/ arguably their most impressive performance to date, a 37-17 win over Central Michigan at home. But I can't disregard the fact this team was 0-6 SU at one point this season! Them being double digit road chalk is somewhat unfathomable. They have not been asked to lay DD chalk, home or road, since that 2011 season. Now, for Miami to be laying this many points on the road, the opponent obviously has to be struggling. Buffalo comes in at 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS for the year. They lost LW, 34-10 on the road, to MAC East leader Ohio. But that was a clear letdown spot after they upset another conference foe unworthy of laying heavy weight on the road, that being Akron. As 19.5 pt home dogs, I took them against the Zips and the result was a 41-20 win! While 0-4 SU on the road, the Bulls are 2-3 SU at home and getting outscored by only 3.2 PPG here at UB Stadium. They have beaten Miami six of eight times, including four straight. 8* Buffalo |
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11-12-16 | Northwestern v. Purdue +14 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -115 | 46 h 48 m | Show |
8* Purdue (12:00 ET): Coming off hard-fought losses against Big 10 heavyweights Ohio State and Wisconsin, I view this as a tricky spot for N'western laying so many points, on the road. Curiously, the Wildcats have performed better away from Evanston this year as in 3-0 ATS. But .. this is the first time they will have been a favorite off campus. Purdue, in a transition year that's already seen a coaching change, has lost four in a row. But this is a team that's been besieged by poor fortune as much as anything else. They rate a horrendous -14 in turnover differential, which is 127th out of 128 teams nationally. I've cashed this team before in West Lafayette (vs. Nevada) and like them here again in this spot. Take the points. One week removed from taking Ohio State down to the wire, Northwestern was a popular upset call LW hosting Wisconsin. It didn't work out that way however as they were beaten 21-7 by the Badgers. They had virtually no success running the ball, gaining only 39 yards on 19 attempts. The Wildcats' lone score came right before the half. Aside from that drive, the offense gained only 229 total yards. Having been held to 24 or less points in all but two games this season, this is hardly the ideal team to be caught laying this number away from home. In fact, this is the first time Pat Fitzgerald's team has been a road favorite in the L3 seasons. Being a DD road fave in Big 10 play is almost unprecedented. These teams met last year in Evanston and Northwestern was "only" a 14-pt favorite at home. The final score there was only 21-14. That was a much better Wildcats team, for the record. As alluded to above, turnovers have been the bugaboo for the Boilermakers as they've won that battle just once in the last eight games. Darrell Hazell was dismissed after a 49-35 loss to Iowa on October 15th. They've subsequently lost three straight for interim HC Gerad Parker. But they've been competitive twice. Last week, they led a good Minnesota team at the half 28-23, but three turnovers cost them. Here at home, the offense averages an impressive 465 YPG and while there's nothing to play for but pride here, I see a competitive game the whole way. 8* Purdue |
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11-11-16 | Harvard v. Stanford -4 | Top | 70-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Stanford (11:00 ET): The Cardinal have moved on from Johnny Dawkins. Last year's 15-15 SU (11-15-1 ATS) finish was the "straw that broke the camel's back." In steps former UAB head man Jerod Haase, who helped that program improve its win total each of the four years he was there. By no means is the cupboard bare here in Palo Alto for Haase. He'll inherit four returning starters from LY's team as well as 10 of the top 11 scorers. So there is no reason to believe this team won't improve here in 2016. This game, it should be noted, takes place in China. Harvard has brought in a strong recruiting class and figures to be the favorite in the Ivy League under HC Tommy Amaker. However, the Crimson have largely been a bust when priced as the underdog. Over the last two seasons, they've won just 4 of 17 games in that role. The line is really short here, it should be pointed out. Stanford is 29-8 SU as a favorite the L3 seasons. Theyve also won 21 of the last 28 non-conference games. Robert Cartwright is a name to pay attention to here. The Stanford PG missed all of last season due to a fractured right arm. Him handling the ball should be a big difference maker. Also, remember that this team won the NIT two years ago. It's not that they were a bad team last year; they simply undeperformed under Dawkins. I have them undervalued coming into this year and will gladly lay the points in this opener. 8* Stanford |
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11-10-16 | Utah v. Arizona State +6 | Top | 49-26 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (9:30 ET): For a second consecutive season, I'm not a huge buyer on fast start from Utah. The Utes opened the year 7-1, but ran into Washington two Saturdays ago and lost 31-24 up in Seattle. Granted, there's no shame in that effort, but a number of the team's wins so far have been close and I don't believe for a second that they're as good as their #15 rating. Playing on the road for a third time in four games may very well "catch up" w/ Kyle Whittingham's team. This is a revenge game for an Arizona State team that is getting a healthy Manny Wilkins back under center. Wilkins should be a big boon for the Sun Devils offense and the team should be quite fired up about a Thursday night home game. Take the points. When these teams met LY in Salt Lake City, it was ASU that entered the fourth quarter w/ an 18-14 lead. From there, however, it was all Utes as they scored the game's final 20 points and covered the five-point spread w/ "room to spare." Still, that's a bit of a misleading final considering the game had five lead changes and the dog led outright going into the final quarter. The scene shifting to Tempe this year is significant as the Sun Devils are a strong 4-1 SU (5-0 ATS!) here this season and 20-10 SU L30 vs. Pac 12 home games. With Wilkins throwing for 290 yards (21 of 30 passing), ASU hung 51 here on a Cal team that happened to hand Utah its first loss of the season. Overall, the Sun Devils are averaging 43.6 PPG at home this season w/ the only loss coming by five to a Washington State team I have rated higher - somewhat significantly - compared to Utah. The Utes may be 7-2 straight up right now, but let's not fail to mention that four of those victories have been by seven points or less. Two of the three that weren't came against Southern Utah (FCS) and San Jose State. They also waxed a downtrodden Arizona team by 13, but that was at home. As a seven-point road favorite at Oregon State last month, they struggled in a 19-14 win and this is a stronger foe than the Beavers. I anticipate the Utes defense struggling against a Sun Devils offense which has gone for 51 and 66 points in home wins w/ Wilkins as the QB. Let's not discount some of the good fortune Utah has enjoyed either this year (+9 in TO's) or the fact they have failed to cover each of the L3 times they have been road chalk of 3.5 to 7 pts. 10* Arizona State |
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11-10-16 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 112-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): The Pelicans have yet to win a game. The only other team that can claim that dubious distinction is Philadelphia over in the Eastern Conference and that was probably to be expected. Though dealing with numerous absences, there's no excuse for the Pelicans, who have one of the best players in the league in Anthony Davis. Though the team is on the road tonight, I can see them breaking through for that elusive first win. Milwaukee is a team that surprises me in that they rate a lot higher than I expected in my own personal power rankings. But after three straight high scoring wins and covers (one at New Orleans' expense), they managed only 75 points in a dreadful overtime loss at Dallas Sunday. When these teams met back on November 1st, it was a high scoring affair w/ the Bucks coming from behind to win 117-113 as 3.5-pt dogs. Despite a 35-point effort from Davis, the Pelicans were outscored in the pain and outrebounded somewhat significantly as the Bucks got a variety of stunning contributions. Greg Monroe, coming off the bench, even grabbed 11 rebounds. Another problem for New Orleans was that they finished the game by missing 18 of their final 22 three-point attempts. I do not expect these kind of numbers to appear in the box score in tonight's game. What I do expect is another standout performance from Davis, who averages 30.9 PPG and also is among the league leaders in rebounds, steals and blocks. The Bucks just lost to another team that was winless, Dallas, on Sunday. That was with the Mavs missing two starters as well, so there's hope for New Orleans yet. Milwaukee was just dreadful on on the offensive end in the loss, scoring only 48 points after the first quarter! My god. They were outscored 12-1 in the OT period and 27 turnovers for the game certainly didn't help. Losing a game when your opponent shoots 9 of 38 from three-point range is not a good sign at all. This is also just the third time this year that the Bucks will have been favored. They are 1-1 ATS thus far, failing to cover as eight-point chalk over Brooklyn. The Pelicans are still 58-46 ATS as a dog the L3 seasons. 10* New Orleans |
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11-09-16 | Bowling Green v. Akron -9.5 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Akron (7:30 ET): This is a virtual must-win for the Zips, who need one more to become officially bowl eligible. They wrap up their regular season on 11.22 in Athens (at Ohio). That will be a tough one as not only is it on the road, but Ohio may very well be looking to clinch the MAC East. This is an opponent at the other end of the divisional spectrum as Bowling Green has yet to win a conference game is only 1-8 SU overall. That one win was over a FCS foe, North Dakota. Since then, they've lost four of seven games by double digits. One of them was 77-3 to Memphis. I look for Akron to win its final home game - big. Bowling Green's defense is very, very bad. They allow 45.1 PPG for the season and have given up 40+ each of the last three games. They come in off a 45-20 loss at Northern Illinois where they were outgained 481-314. You can really run the ball on this team. They allow 226 YPG in that department for the year. Now Akron is also in off B2B losses and has a leaky defense in its own right. But they can certainly put points up more consistently than the Falcons. The Zips average 29.8 PPG compared to just 21.2 for BGSU and that second number drops to 18.2 when they are on the road. We don't find Akron is this price range often, but they are 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points the L3 seasons. Those games, both home finales, saw them win by a combined 50-6 margin! In fact, they are 5-2 SU their L7 home finales including three consecutive wins by 15+ points. There's plenty of revenge the Zips would like to exact on this Falcons team as they have lost four years in a row to BG and are just 2-10 ATS the L12 meetings overall. Last year, it was 59-10. But there is no denying which side is stronger in 2016. 8* Akron |
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11-08-16 | Wolves -4 v. Nets | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves have just one win this year, but it came by 36 points (over Memphis). That's a greater margin than their four losses combine to equal (30 points) even after factoring in their first "bad" game of the year, a 112-92 loss at Oklahoma City Saturday night. Prior to that, Minny had actually led by 15+ points in each of their first three defeats. So, we're coming off the first time all year that the T'wolves didn't lead their opponent by double digits. Much improvement was expected from this team in 2016-17 and I believe they are a lot better than the overall record. Lay the points. Brooklyn, on the other hand, was projected by most to be one of (if not THE) worst teams in the league. Because of that, they have been able to take advantage of some large spreads and start the season 5-1 ATS. They are 2-4 SU, but three of the losses have been by five points or less. While they've performed better than I projected them to (so far), I still have little regard for this Nets squad and I expect them to get run out of the gym here. A number of key players are out for them, most notably PG Jeremy Lin. Randy Foye and Greivis Vasquez are also battling injuries. Foye is listed as probable but Vasquez is not expected to play tonight. Ricky Rubio's absence has affected Minnesota at the point guard position, but they'll have the best player on the floor Tuesday in the form of Karl-Anthony Towns, who is off B2B 30+ pt games. This is not just the best player in this game, but one of the best young players in the league. Something else that's interesting is the fact that the T'wolves rank in the Top 10 in the league in both offensive and defensive efficiency! The Nets haven't played since Friday and this is their fourth consecutive home game. But that second half of the equation may not be a good things considering their awful 4-16 ATS record when taking the court after playing three in a row here at the Barclays Center. 10* Minnesota |
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11-08-16 | Western Michigan v. Kent State +22.5 | Top | 37-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Kent State (7:30 ET): The underdog Golden Flashes figured to be already "up against it" here facing unbeaten Western Michigan (avg MOV = 25.9 PPG), but were just dealt a bit of terrible news when it was announced that leading tackler Nate Holley was suspended for this game and the foreseeable future. Holley has been arrested on kidnapping charges (can't make this stuff up!) and while I wasn't happy to see that, the fact that the line has shifted so severely seems like an overreaction to me. The pressure is now on WMU, who only needs to win to earn the "Group of Five" spot, not win by any kind of significant margin. The Broncos did clobber Ball State last Tuesday, but I envision a closer game this week. Take the points. Kent State has had a little more lead time into this game, which can be viewed as a minor advantage. They last played October 29th and won on the road, 27-24, over Central Michigan as 12-point underdogs. While forcing four turnovers there was definitely key to the Golden Flashes' cause, note CMU also benefited from a safety and defensive TD themselves. So Kent's defense, which has really come on strong of late, actually only gave up 14 points. That makes it four straight games allowing 20 pts or less. Now the loss of Holley is big, but I think this group can withstand it. It also should be pointed out that the Flashes' four losses to non Power 5 foes (they had to play both Alabama and Penn State, two top 12 teams) have all come by four points or less (15 pts total). Because these teams are in opposite divisions, they don't meet every year. That being said, it is worth nothing that Western Michigan has dropped its last two trips to Dix Stadium, including 41-24 back in '12 when Kent State made it all the way to the MAC Title Game. Clearly, the Golden Flashes aren't anywhere near as strong this year but w/ the defense not having even allowed the number of points that the oddsmakers are calling for them to lose by here, they look like a solid value as a home dog. Expect this to be the biggest game of the year for KSU as its a rare nationally televised home game. WMU has covered all five road games this year, but this is the first time they've had to play back to back. 8* Kent State |
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11-07-16 | Jazz v. 76ers +7.5 | Top | 109-84 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Yesterday's win by Dallas (I was on 'em!) leaves only two teams winless across the league. They are New Orleans (many injuries) and "old reliable" Philadelphia. There hasn't been a lack of trying w/ these young Sixers, however. Saturday night saw them rally back from a double digit deficit here at home against Cleveland to lose by only a single point. Thus, they easily covered the spread there. Utah appears to be getting a bit too much respect by comparison and this is the second game of a back to back for them. Yesterday, in an early start time, the Jazz beat the Knicks by five (114-109), the return of Gordon Heyward to the lineup. But winning by any kind of margin here will prove difficult. Take the points. Saturday night actually saw the Sixers come all the way back to take the lead on Cleveland before the incomparable LeBron James worked his magic and found an open Channing Frye for the GW three-pointer. Still, even though it was their 42nd consecutive loss in October/November, Philly should hold its head high. Joel Embid scored 22 points and was a perfect 4 for 4 from behind the three-point line. He currently leads the team, averaging 18.5 PPG. Three of the Sixers' losses this year have come by six points or less, two of them by two points or less! Other than the game vs. Atlanta, they've generally been pretty competitive. As for Utah, we're all thinking this is their year to breakthrough into maybe the Top 5 in the Western Conference. It certainly was an encouraging sign to see Hayward score 28 points in his return Sunday afternoon. But the B2B scenario should catch up w/ the Jazz here. Laying points on the road is still fairly a new concept for this team. Note they trailed for the majority of the first three quarters yday, even by double digits in the first half. I don't see them shooting better than 50 percent for a second consecutive game. While Hayward is back, Alec Burks and Boris Diaw remain out, leaving them a bit short-handed and that can come back to bite a team when its playing w/o rest. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-06-16 | Bucks v. Mavs -2 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:05 ET): The decline of the Mavericks is something we all expected this year, but so far the decline has been more severe than initially thought. They enter Sunday as one of only three winless teams in the league. The other two are New Orleans (very injured) and Philadelphia (always terrible). In fact, the Mavs actually own the worst per game scoring differential in the Western Conference right now (-8.8). But they are favored tonight, at home, against an opponent playing w/o rest. Milwaukee won big on their home floor last night, 117-91 over Sacramento, and might be a bit too overvalued here as a result. I'm calling for Dallas to get its first SU win of the year. Lay the short number. Since scoring 121 pts in in an overtime loss to Indiana (season opener), the Mavs haven't hit 100 points again. After two of their first three losses either came in OT or by one point, it's been B2B double digit losses to Utah and Portland. But I'll make the argument that this is their weakest opponent yet. They have dominated Milwaukee through the years, winning 11 of the past 13 meetings including three straight here at home. Yes, I'm well aware there will be no Dirk Nowitzki tonight (or for the foreseeable future), but I think that the remaining pieces can get the job done. Thus far, the team is shooting just 41.8% from the floor. That number can only go up, right? To my earlier point about the Bucks possibly being overvalued here, note that over the L3 seasons they are just 2-10 against the spread when on a three-game win streak. Going back more than a decade, they're 48-87 ATS in the role. They've beaten New Orleans, Indiana and Sacramento, but needed OT to get by the Pelicans and their only other road game so far resulted in a double digit loss to the Pistons. I don't think playing in the second night of a back to back does them any favors here either. Over the L3 seasons, they are just 15-27 SU when playing w/o rest and that includes the double digit loss to the Pistons I just spoke about. 8* Dallas |
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11-06-16 | Colts +7.5 v. Packers | Top | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 68 h 32 m | Show |
8* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Using preseason "lookahead" lines, Green Bay was "supposed to be" a favorite in every game this year. But they ended up being a dog LW at Atlanta (+3), and while they covered, they also lost the game straight up 33-32. That SU drops the Pack to a surprising 4-3 on the year and I'm banking on "the world" being on them here. But the Colts are also off a loss (30-14 at home to Kansas City) and in danger of seeing their season slip away. We know we have two of the most talented QB's in the game on hand here, but it's likely to be some other contributor that proves to be the difference maker in this one. I'm going to take the points as it's rare to get this many w/ Andrew Luck. If you've been following the Colts at all in recent years, then you know that they've been fortunate to experience a lot of luck, both with a capital and small "L." QB Andrew has certainly carried a deeply flawed roster (thanks Ryan Grigson!) as far as he can, but there's also been a great deal of good fortune along the way. Since Luck (the QB) was drafted, this team has gone a somewhat preposterous 30-11 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Ironically, the likely regression they are likely to experience in this department is what has me on them here. I feel the most likely result of this game is a close Indianapolis loss. The Packers, like the Colts, are dealing with a ton of injuries right now. Their only win over the L3 weeks came at the expense of a Chicago team that was forced to turn to its third string QB for the majority of the game. That win is their only one of more than a touchdown all year. Meanwhile, three of the Colts' five losses have been by four points or less. So that regression I spoke of above is already starting to take hold. Many are now touting Rodgers' completion percentage over the L3 games, but note that LW vs. a suspect Falcons defense, he averaged only 5.4 yards per attempt. That won't get it done when trying to win by any kind of margin. While the fact the Colts are only 3-10 SU/5-8 ATS as a dog of 7 or more since '12 worries me, some of those games were w/o Luck, Andrew that is. 8* Indianapolis |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers +4.5 | Top | 41-23 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Are the 49ers worth a regular endorsement? No. But, coming off six straight ATS losses (longest active streak in the league) and a bye, they are most certainly worth a look here in a situation that appears to be most favorable. Not only are they off their bye week, but they happen to be catching New Orleans off a game against Seattle. I've regularly discussed the "car crash" type effect playing the Seahawks can have on a team the following week. In fact, my *10* Game of the Week selection for Week 8 was against the Cardinals, who were coming off the now-infamous 6-6 tie the week prior vs. Russell Wilson and company. So last week's surprise 25-20 win over Seattle somewhat works AGAINST the Saints here. It may not be quite the horrible situation that Arizona found itself in LW, but it's certainly worth fading New Orleans here. I think that most folks, myself included, came into this NFL season thinking that the Saints' best years were behind them. Sure enough, they opened 0-3 SU and things were looking very bad w/ a leaky defense that was the worst in the entire league in 2015. But there's been a bit of a stunning turnaround over the last month w/ the team winning three of four. However, those three wins all have been by five points or less and by a grand total of nine points! Two of them were also at the Mercedes Benz Superdome, where they are always much better, and as dogs. The third SU win also saw them catching points, at San Diego, and that was quite the fortunate victory. The offense gained only 275 yds total in the contest and the team trailed by double digits w/ less than five minutes to play. However, TWO late fumbles by the Chargers basically gifted the Saints the win there. New Orleans can be a great value as a home dog, but not as a road favorite. Since 201o, they are just 10-19 ATS in the latter role, including 2-8 L10. The last time was Week 10 of LY and they were destroyed in Washington, 47-14. I know the 49ers don't offer much on paper, but a trip out to the West Coast can always be trouble. Don't believe me? Well, how about the fact New Orleans has lost EIGHT straight road games vs. the NFC West, going 1-7 ATS! Four of those games saw them actually favored. I still believe Colin Kaepernick to be Chip Kelly's best option under center. The bye week has allowed for RB Carlos Hyde to return to the lineup. Take the points. 10* San Francisco |
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11-06-16 | Eagles v. Giants -2 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): I've heard a lot of crowing this week about how "the Eagles can't possibly drop to 0-3 (SU) in the division, can they?" Sure they can. After all, let us not forget that this team was projected to finish last in the NFC East coming into the year. They are now 4-3 SU, which quite frankly is as many wins as I thought they'd have all season. The stunning 3-0 SU start altered the collective viewpoint of Carson Wentz and company quite drastically. But a quick check back of that early season win streak reveals two of their victims were Cleveland and Chicago, the former being the clear cut choice for worst team in the league. (Bears are w/o a doubt bottom five). Since that 3-0 SU start, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU. Recall that I had them in that one win, but that was against a Minnesota team when the market had clearly shifted too far against the Eagles (they were +3 in the 21-10 upset). Here, they are in off an OT loss to Dallas (Sunday Night Game) and playing on the road against a rested, division foe. I believe them to be ripe to get blown out. Lay the short number here. The Giants, as just mentioned, are off their bye week. They'd won B2B games prior, beating Baltimore and Los Angeles (in London), both by relatively close margins. Whereas sometimes we see the bye halt a team's momentum, I do not believe that will be the case w/ the G-Men here. This team has won six of the last eight years coming off its bye and I like 1st year HC Ben McAdoo to continue the trend here. While the rushing attack has been anemic to say the least, I still love the passing game w/ Eli Manning throwing to a bevy of quality receivers, Odell Beckham Jr chief among them. The Giants defense is much improved this season as it has allowed more than 24 points only one time. It's pretty shocking to see that this team has zero wins by more than seven points this year, but I'm calling for this to be their largest MOV to date. This is also a big revenge spot for the G-Men as the Eagles have swept them each of the last two seasons. But that was w/ a different coach and different personnel. Rookie QB Carson Wentz has shown major signs of regression over the last month as he's averaging a paltry 6.69 yards per pass attempt. The loss of WR Josh Huff certainly won't help the passing game and it also hurts the Eagles' special teams as he was their kick returner. This offense has averaged only 256 YPG the L3 weeks. Though their defense has kept them afloat, the Eagles are still being outgained for the year. 8* NY Giants |
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11-06-16 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 64 h 9 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): I readily admit that it appears as if these are two teams headed in very opposite directions. But I'm serious when I say that you should not be surprised if, at the end of the day, the Jags pull the outright upset here. I'm expecting a supreme effort here as HC Gus Bradley is now officially on the hot seat after his team was drubbed last Thursday by Tennessee, 36-22. The reality is that the game was not as close as the final score indicates as Jacksonville trailed 27-0 at halftime and 36-8 early in the fourth quarter. The loss resulted in a change at offensive coordinator w/ Nathanial Hackett replacing Greg Olson. The bottom line is something had to be done w/ the team averaging only 19.9 PPG to this point. Take the points in this one. Kansas City has won three straight since the bye, all by relatively comfortable margins. But there's some attrition going on here w/ starting QB Alex Smith and RB Spencer Ware both out for this game. There hasn't been much adjustment by the oddsmakers in the wake of those injuries, which is surprising to me. Granted, neither is a star player, but a team being w/o its starting QB and RB is pretty big time. I think too much stock is being put into Nick Foles, whom I've never had much regard for. Foles is familiar with Andy Reid (played for him in Philly) and looked good enough last week, but that was against an awful Colts defense. By the way, the Chiefs also just put RB Jamaal Charles on IR, so that means Charcandrick West will carry the load in the backfield. West has NEVER been an every down back in this league before. I think that the extra time to prepare is going to be huge for Jacksonville here. When they were blown out by Tennessee, it was a bad spot as it was short week and they were off a tough loss to the Raiders. In many ways, this reminds me of the Bills in Week 3 (whom I played) as they had just made a change at OC after a Thurs night loss. The Bills wound up upsetting the Cardinals the following week, jumpstarting a nice run for them. The Jags' defense is pretty good actually (13th in yards per game allowed) and facing a short-handed KC offense, they'll keep the team in the game. This is the most points the Chiefs have been asked to lay at the betting window to date and they are already 0-2 ATS when laying six or more. 10* Jacksonville |
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11-06-16 | Cowboys v. Browns +7 | Top | 35-10 | Loss | -108 | 64 h 8 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): I'd say we are getting fairly close to the "Dallas' bubble" bursting here. That's not to say the Cowboys are going to fall apart down the stretch, miss the playoffs or even fail to win their division. But the team has now covered six in a row following LW's overtime decision over Philadelphia. That was a game where they were hardly ever covering the five-point spread (there was an 11-minute stretch in the 2Q when they led by a touchdown) until the GW TD was scored in OT. Yes, they did outgain the Eagles by a ton (460-291), but that discrepancy certainly widened after the one drive in OT. (Also, that total yardage discrepancy could be used as further proof to play against the Eagles this week - see elsewhere in this three-pack). Of note to me is that Dallas has only twice been favored by more than a single points this season. Other than last week, Chicago was the other instance. Both times were at home. Here, they are decisive road favorite and getting the vast majority of public support. This smells like a "trap game" to me. Take the points. Now, I can understand any potential unwillingness to support Cleveland, the league's lone winless team. The odds will say the Browns are going to finish this season winless (they'll be a dog in every game), a dubious distinction only "achieved" by the '08 Lions in a 16-game slate. But the Browns have at least been competitive this year. Half of their eight losses have come by six points or less. Last week, they led the Jets 20-7 at half, only to lose 31-28. They actually didn't cover there (closed +2.5), nor did they cover in games they led outright earlier in the season vs. Baltimore and Washington. But neither of those numbers were as large as this one is. Injuries on both sides of the ball (secondary and offensive line) for the Cowboys threaten to keep this game closer than it "ought to be." Both Barry Church and Mo Claiborne are out in the defensive backfield for this one. As of press time, it remains unsettled as to whom will be under center for the Browns, but the reality is it's an irrelevant call as it won't affect my play whatsoever. Whether it's rookie Cody Kessler or veteran Josh McCown, either will have WR Corey Coleman to throw the ball to. Coleman has 173 receiving yards in the two games that he's played in. This is the first time that Dallas will be asked to lay at least a TD on the road since the 2011 season. 8* Cleveland |
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11-05-16 | Nevada +15 v. New Mexico | Top | 26-35 | Win | 100 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
8* Nevada (10:15 ET): How about this Mountain West? While Boise State is still considered the team to beat in the Mountain Division, the Broncos no longer control their own destiny thanks to last week's loss to Wyoming. Also threatening to crash the party is New Mexico. Bob Davie's Lobos have won three in a row (since losing to Boise State) and two of those came as underdogs. Last week, they went out to the Island and "upset" Hawaii 28-21 as 2.5-point pups. The week after playing out in Honolulu is notorious for hangovers for College Football teams and in this case it's certainly newsworthy to see the Lobos laying this many points. So far, they have been DD chalk three times this season. Twice they failed to cover and once they lost outright (to New Mex State). They did beat LA Monroe 59-17 two weeks ago, as 15.5-pt chalk, but the Warhawks are a very bad team. Take the points here. While New Mexico was out on the Island LW, Nevada had the week off. That's an edge worth noting for a Wolfpack team having an uncharacteristically "down year." They're not used to losing seasons in Reno, but currently Brian Polian's team is just 3-5 SU after a home loss to Wyoming two weeks ago. Things have gone even worse at the betting window w/ the team just 1-6-1 ATS. But I should point out that they have been the favorite in half of their games and a dog of eight points or less in three more. The only team they were DD dogs to was Notre Dame. This line looks like a real steal compared to the kinds of teams UNM has been asked to lay 10 or more to previously and that Nevada is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine times as a DD dog! New Mexico has not beaten Nevada since 1941! They have lost three straight as conference rivals, including 35-17 LY in Reno. To show how far the market has shiften in the last year, the Lobos were four-point underdogs for the 2015 meeting. Note that Nevada is a perfect 5-0 SU the L3 seasons when coming off B2B SU losses. Their only ATS loss in those five games came four weeks ago against Fresno State, a game they won 27-22, but they were favored by seven in that spot. This a tricky spot for New Mexico, off a SU dog win at Hawaii, and the fact Nevada is rested is a big deal. 8* Nevada |
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11-05-16 | Utah State +5 v. Wyoming | Top | 28-52 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
10* Utah State (10:15 ET): HC Craig Bohl has engineered quite the turnaround in Laramie as Wyoming is your shocking leader in the MWC's Mountain Division on the heels of their somewhat shocking upset of Boise State last week. Such a result obviously is prone to make the following week the ultimate letdown and in this case we find the Pokes in the still somewhat irregular role of favorite. This will be just the third time all year that they've been favored to beat an FBS foe and one of the two previous accounts for one of their two SU losses. They lost at Eastern Michigan 27-24 as six-point chalk back on 9.23. A much shorter and recent trip to Nevada brought about a push using the closing line (42-34, -8), but that's not enough to convince me that laying the points here would be wise. While Wyoming is exceeding expectations, Utah State is currently falling short of them. A perennial power in the Mountain West, the Aggies stand at just 3-5 SU overall, including 1-4 in conference play. They were humbled LW at home, 40-13 by San Diego State, a game they gave up a ghastly 400 yards rushing. But that was the first time that Matt Wells' team had failed to be competitive in league play ths year. They have also had Wyoming's number through the years, winning four straight all by double digits. Last year, it was 58-27 in Logan and they were 26-point favorites. That's a 30+ point swing in just one year's time! Clearly, the tables have turned, but few could have projected - even a few weeks ago - that USU would come in here at the underdog. Let's not discount the fact that the Aggies have also had one extra day to prepare here. That could come in handy. Wyoming absolutely should be commended for the win over Boise State last week, but note they actually won the game on a late safety, that came w/ just over a minute remaining. They trailed by eight halfway through the fourth quarter and were it not for a two-point conversion and safety, they probably lose. It was the third upset in the last four weeks and first win over a ranked opponent since '02. So, yes, I'd say the letdown is in full effect here. The Cowboys have not covered as a favorite against a FBS foe since beating Air Force in the fourth week of the 2013 season! Since then, they are 0-7-1 ATS including four outright losses. This is just the third time they've been favored to beat a FBS foe in the L19 games. Take the points. 10* Utah State |
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11-05-16 | Clippers +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 116-92 | Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): Both of these Western Conference powers won last night, on the road. The Clippers went to Memphis and won 99-88 and really things were in line to be a bit more lopsided (Grizzlies outscored them 31-23 in the fourth quarter). LA led by as many as 21 in the contest and what should be real scary for San Antonio here is the fact the Clips were able to win so comfortably despite shooting only 37.6% from the floor. The Spurs, meanwhile, gained a measure of revenge for their only loss of the season Friday night. They beat Utah 100-86 as a short favorite, payback for a 106-91 home loss that took place earlier in the week (Jazz were my *10* Game of the Week in that first meeting). In this battle of heavyweights, I'll take the points. The more things change, the more they stay the same. It's the familiar names on top of the Western Conference standings right now and the Clippers are right in the thick of things w/ a 4-1 SU and ATS record. Their only loss so far came by two points, at home, to fellow one loss team Oklahoma City (were seven-point favorites there). Considering last night and that the loss to OKC came by a score of 89-87, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that it's now been B2B poor shooting efforts from Chris Paul and company. But what should surprise you is the fact this team is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency - by a wide margin. They are giving up just 0.89 points per possession, a remarkable achievement when you consider San Antonio led the league LY at 0.96. Obviously, keeping that pace up will be difficult for Doc Rivers' team, but if they can stay near the top of the league, they'll have no trouble at all finishing at least third in the West this year. We know how Greg Popovich sometimes treats these back to back efforts, so there is always the chance some key Spurs could be rested. They are already w/o their starting backcourt of Danny Green and Tony Parker. Therefore, I highly recommend betting this one now as we've already seen the number start to come down. Note: this play still stands regardless of line movement. Note that the Clips are a strong 29-12 SU in the second game of a back to back the L3 seasons, including an 18-pt win over Phoenix earlier this year. This projects to be a low-scoring game, so taking the points is the way to go. 10* LA Clippers |
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11-05-16 | Nebraska v. Ohio State -17 | Top | 3-62 | Win | 100 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Eyes tend to open when we have spreads such as this for a battle of teams ranked in the Top 10. But the often laughable CFP committee's rankings is not something I'd put a ton of stock in. Sure, they tend to get the teams at the top right, but after that, it's a total "crapshoot." Truth be told, only one of the teams involved here is a legit top 10 squad and I'll give you a hint ... it's not Nebraska. Sure, Ohio State has looked shaky in recent weeks, failing to cover four in a row. But they're at home here and catching the Cornhuskers at a most opportune time, that being the second of B2B road games. That's the precise spot that gave the Buckeyes their only loss in 2016. In Nebraska's case, last week was their first SU loss of the season and it came in overtime at Wisconsin. Lay the points. Prior to the ATS losing streak, right-minded people were questioning if OSU might be on par w/ top ranked Alabama. Clearly, that was a case of "putting the cart before the horse," but this remains one of the most talented teams in all the land under HC Urban Meyer. In five years in Columbus, Meyer has gone 57-5 straight up. But clearly w/ a line such as this, a SU win is something we're taking for granted. As for the margin of victory, how soon we forget this Buckeyes team went to Norman, Oklahoma in September and won easily, 45-24. They are outscoring foes by 27.5 PPG for the year. In that loss to Penn State, they still outgained the Nittany Lions 413-276. Last week, they ran and passed for 200+ in a closer than it should have been 24-20 win over Northwestern. Last week was clearly Nebraska's toughest test to date and they scored only 17 pts and gained 305 total yards in Madison. This is a bigger step up in class and it's the second straight road game. Teams coming off their first loss tend to struggle the week after the "bubble is burst" and that's what I'm banking on here. It's a much different offense that the Cornhuskers' defense will face here compared to last week. I think it speaks volumes that despite catching roughly only 20 percent of all wagers for this matchup, Ohio State has seen the line increase rather dramatically. Yes, about 80% of the public is fading the Buckeyes, which is almost unheard of. Yet, the so-called "sharp money" has spoken and it's saying "O-H-I-O." 8* Ohio State |
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11-05-16 | Missouri +7.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -130 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
10* Missouri (4:00 ET): Like TCU, Mizzou let me down last week but I'll keep the faith. For a second straight week, the Tigers lost outright. This time, it was to Kentucky, 35-21 laying seven points. The previous week saw them lose 51-45 to Middle Tennessee on Homecoming Weekend (were favored by 8.5 there). Now 2-6 SU, they're back to being underdog, which should suit them better. I especially like this line because the opponent, South Carolina, is not a side you want to be caught laying points with. Not only because they are averaging only 17.7 PPG for the year, but they are also 0-5 against the spread AND straight up when laying 3.5 to 10 pts the L3 seasons. Furthermore, the Gamecocks should be prone to a letdown coming off a somewhat shocking win over Tennessee last week, 24-21 as 15-pt home dogs. Take the points. The last two weeks have seen South Carolina score 34 and 24 points. Prior to that, they had not scored more than 20 in any game. So, again, you can see why fading this team as chalk might be a prudent maneuver. They've been a favorite just twice all year and once they were only caught laying 1.5 pts to East Carolina (won 20-15). The other time was two weeks ago and as 20-pt favorites, they only managed to beat UMass 34-28. That UMass game marked the debut of freshman QB Jake Bentley in the starting lineup. Before Bentley, this offense had only two TD passes in in six games. Bentley has thrown four the past two games. But still, a six-point win over UMass proves little to me. Last week's upset of Tennessee saw the Gamecocks benefit tremendously from a +3 turnover margin. One also has to question what the Vols had left in the tank following a difficult scheduling gauntlet. I mentioned South Carolina's horrible mark as a favorite earlier. Well, on the other side of the ledger, Missouri happens to be a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the road underdog role when priced between 3.5 and 7 points. Four consecutive ATS losses seems like a streak due to come to and end. Since beating South Carolina last year, 24-10 as three-point favorites, the Tigers have lost 10 straight SEC games. Another streak that seems like it "has to end." This is a good "buy low" spot for a team that will be desperate to hold onto bowl eligibility. 10* Missouri |
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11-05-16 | Arizona +17 v. Washington State | Top | 7-69 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 23 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:00 ET): The Pac 12 has been turned upside down this year. Washington is the clear class of the league and while perennial power USC is also involved in conference championship chatter, the rest of the contenders are unfamiliar names. Teams like Oregon, Stanford and UCLA have been replaced in the pecking order by the likes of Colorado and Washington State. The latter is actually tied w/ rival Washington atop the North Division currently (both 5-0 SU in league play). Meanwhile, there's only one team w/o a win in league play and that would be Arizona. It's certainly been a trying year in Tucson for Rich Rod, but despite the disparate records, I feel his side is the one with the value here. Take the points. Predictably, Arizona has been a disaster at the betting window this season (more on that later). But, over the last three weeks, Wazzu is 0-3 ATS itself. What's notable about that is the Cougs were favored in every game. While they've still managed to win all three straight up, each win came by six points or less and just 15 total. The only other times they've been favored this year was against Idaho (terrible) and Eastern Washington (FCS). They actually lost to the latter outright in the season opener. This now looks to be the most points they will have laid to a conference foe in many, many years. Yes, it's even more than they laid last wee against Oregon State, a program that has just one Pac 12 win the L2 seasons. Mike Leach has his team ranked and that can certainly create an overvaluation in the marketplace. Remember; they trailed OSU last week, 24-6 at the half. The last time that WSU laid 17 or more points to a Pac 12 foe was 2012 vs. Colorado (were -20). They lost that game outright. Arizona, admittedly, has not been competitive since taking Washington to overtime back on September 24th. Last week, I expected more as they were off a bye week hosting Stanford. Instead, they lost 34-10. Rich Rod is dealing w/ a lot of attrition this year, most notably at the QB position w/ injuries. But I'll call for better play at that position this week, no matter whom is under center. Also, this is a revenge spot for the Wildcats, who lost 45-42 LY in Tucson as seven-point favorites. 10* Arizona |
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11-05-16 | TCU +8.5 v. Baylor | Top | 62-22 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
10* TCU (3:30 ET): Neither team had a good Saturday last week and in the case of TCU, they helped spoil mine. I laid the points w/ the Horned Frogs and expected a massive offensive day facing a suspect (to say the least!) Texas Tech defense. What I got instead was an outright loss as 9.5-point favorites, 27-24, in double overtime. At no point in the game was TCU covering. It's been quite the disappointing campaign thus far in Ft. Worth w/ Gary Patterson's team now a revolting 1-7 at the betting windown (only 4-4 SU). Meanwhile, Baylor's last game went no better for them as they suffered their first loss, 35-35 at Texas, and did so off a bye. Things have gotten ugly in Waco as well, although mainly for off the field reasons as the Bears are still trying to recover from the untimely departure of former HC Art Briles. Three of TCU's four losses this year have come by six points or less, so this number looks like a bargain. The first of those three losses came to Arkansas, 41-38, in double overtime. So including last week, that's two 2OT losses for the Horned Frogs this year. The other close loss they suffered came to Oklahoma, 52-46. This line here stands to be the most points that TCU gets in any game all regular season long. This is a team that had gone 5-0 ATS as an underdog the L2 seasons. It is quite rare to find them getting more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers. It happened three times when the team finished 4-8 SU in 2013. They went 3-0 ATS in those games, including a cover at Baylor's expense in the reg season finale. Baylor has hardly been a juggernaut at the pay windown this year, covering only two of seven games. They'd played a very week schedule prior to running into Texas. Their non-conference opponents were Northwestern State, SMU and Rice. Since the start of Big 12 play, we've seen the defense give up an average of 431 YPG. These schools have developed quite the rivalry in recent years w/ each of the L3 meetings decided by seven points or less. That includes the infamous 2014 meeting here in Waco where TCU blew a 3 TD lead (lost 61-58), ultimately costing themselves a shot at the first College Football Playoff. Whereas TCU's issues are correctable, I feel Baylor is a program in total disarray due to all the off the field scandal. I'll take the points. 10* TCU |
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11-04-16 | Hawks v. Wizards -2 | Top | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): At 0-3 SU and ATS, the Wizards are one of just four teams w/o a SU win so far. They are the ONLY team that has not covered. I look for that to come to an end after tonight when they host the team that beat them in the series opener, that being Atlanta. The Wizards have played the fewest number of games in the league to this point, so they still should be fresh. I readily admit to playing the Wiz in the aforementioned season opener and though they lost by 15, it was a one-point game entering the 4th quarter. They also blew a lead on the road, at Memphis, the following game. Wednesday night in the home opener, one would have hoped that things would turn around (I know I hoped they would!), but instead they lost to Toronto 113-103 - despite shooting 58.3% from the floor! The Hawks had the best point differential in the league (+19.3) through the first week, but suffice to say that was going to last. I played against them Wednesday when they lost outright, at home, to the Lakers. The final score there was 123-116 and the Hawks came in favored by 12. They allowed LA to shoot 53.9% overall and score 72 points after halftime. With the losses of Jeff Teague and Al Horford in the offseason, questions are abound re: this team. Defensively, they had been able to maintain last year's standard. That was before facing LA though. Scoring has not been an issue for Washington, who has been in every game. They just need to learn how to finish and not turn the ball over. It's not like this is a young team; they have a talented backcourt. They were my pick to win the Southeast and while early returns have not been good, I'm not giving up. Look for this to be their first win of the year. 10* Washington |
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11-04-16 | Temple v. Connecticut +10 | Top | 21-0 | Loss | -103 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
8* UConn (7:00 ET): Temple was a major breakout team last year as they opened 7-0 SU (ranked #22) before losing a nationally televised home game to Notre Dame. From that point on, it was a bit of a limp to the finish as they lost four of their final seven games, including the Boca Raton Bowl to Toledo. I think that everybody (myself included) figured regression would be in the cards for HC Matt Rhule in 2016 and that premonition looked accurate in the early going w/ the Owls starting just 3-3 SU. But not only has the team won its last three games, they've been a covering machine all season. After dropping the season opener at home to Army (28-13, were 14-pt favorites), the Owls have covered eight in a row, most recently a 34-13 win nine-point chalk LW vs. Cincinnati. But this week marks the first time all year that we find them in the role of road favorite. Take the points here. UConn's season has not gone particularly well, whether you're talking on the field or at the betting window. The Huskies enter this game at 3-6 SU/2-7 ATS and have just one win since mid-September. Last week was perhaps the nadir as they got clobbered at East Carolina, losing 41-3 as seven-point underdogs. There, they were coming off a loss in their "big rivalry game" to UCF, so it wasn't the most ideal of spots. Still though, it was an awful loss and one that clearly affected this line. But the overadjustment is something we must take advantage of here. More often than not, the Huskies' defense shows up, particularly in Storrs. Last year, UConn allowed fewer than 20 points per game for the season. They've maintained that average this year, at least at home, where they give up only 19.0 PPG. Though 41-3 is very ugly, UConn did itself no favors LW by committing three turnovers. The Huskies have generally saved all their worst performances for the road where they are not only winless, but have lost three times (in four chances) by double digits. But at home, they have not lost by more than eight points. That loss came to UCF, who they still outgained and actually led 13-0 early in the game. Remember, UConn beat Houston here at home last season. They then had to go to Temple the following week and predictably got whacked, but the line here isn't much different from what it was LY in Philly and that's something worth noting. Temple ran 79 plays LW (compared to only 49 for Cincinnati). Bottom line is that I cannot see their ATS win streak (now the longest in the country!) continuing. 8* UConn |
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11-04-16 | Central Michigan -3.5 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 17-37 | Loss | -101 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
8* Central Michigan (6:00 ET): Here we have the somewhat "classic" situation of a favorite off an outright loss (in the chalk role) taking on an underdog that won SU (as a dog) the previous week. It's actually one of two such games on Friday's card (also San Jose St @ Boise St). Spoiler alert: there's also one such game on Saturday - stay tuned. Often times, I like to exploit this situation because the respective teams become over and undervalued for the following game. Getting back to the task at hand, the team here off a SU dog win last week should be familiar to those that are regular clients. I had Miami +7 last week and all they did was go to Ypsilanti and defeat Eastern Michigan by a score of 28-15. They never even trailed. But even though they're returning to Oxford this week, they're still an underdog and I believe this line to be way too short. Lay the points. All things considered, Central Michigan had a massively successful season in 2015. Despite abruptly losing their previous head coach in January, the Chippewas managed to go 6-2 SU in MAC play and tie for 1st place in the West Division. They outgained conference foes by an impressive 83.8 YPG. Current HC John Bonamego figured to be in a much better spot entering year #2 w/ 16 returning starters including senior QB Cooper Rush. Sure enough, the Chips opened this year at 3-0 SU. But they have since dropped four of five SU. Last week saw their 11-game win streak against the MAC East come to an end in shocking fashion as the fell 27-24 (as 12-pt favorites) to lowly Kent State, in Mt Pleasant no less. They did outgain the Golden Flashes ever so slightly (349-340) and led by as many as two touchdowns midway through the third quarter. But they were undone by four turnovers and lost on a GW FG w/ no time remaining. For evidence of value on CMU in this week's matchup, look no further than last month when they were actually a similar sized favorite at Virginia, a Power 5 school! The Chippewas also won at Oklahoma State earlier this year, albeit in controversial fashion. They have won five of the last six matchups with Miami. The RedHawks have won three in a row, but were 0-6 SU to open the season remember. Two of their wins were against Kent State and Bowling Green. As much as liked them last week, that was because they were getting more points against an inferior squad (compared to CMU). I look for the Chippewas to get back on track. 8* Central Michigan |
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11-03-16 | UCLA +13.5 v. Colorado | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
10* UCLA (9:00 ET): A season that they'd hope would "turn up roses" (i.e. Rose Bowl appearance) has instead turned into an unmitigated disaster for UCLA. The Bruins were my call to win the Pac 12 South this year, but here we find them w/ five losses already heading into November. Difficult as it is to imagine, the news just keeps getting worse as star QB Josh Rosen (missed L2 games) is now expected to be out for the remainder of the season w/ a shoulder injury. UCLA comes into tonight having dropped three in a row, all by seven pts or less, and will again turn to Mike Fafaul as their starter under center. At 2-6 ATS for the season, I feel the Bruins come in greatly undervalued for this contest as this line would have been considered unfathomable two months ago. Take the points. Colorado, meanwhile, is your surprise leader in the Pac 12 South (6-2 overall, 4-1 conference). The Buffs are the ONLY team in the country w/o an ATS blemish on the resume as they come in at a perfect 8-0 at the pay window. Their only two SU losses came at the hands of Michigan and USC. They are coming off a 10-5 win over Stanford where they clearly benefited from a +4 turnover margin. So there's been some good fortune along the way and you have to wonder how long that will last. Even in their only Pac 12 loss (at USC), they were fortunate to cover considering they were outgained 539-371, but again forced four TO's to keep it close (lost 21-17 as 5-pt pups). There was also the matter of USC taking a knee inside the 5-yd line to run the time out. I have a lot of respect for what HC Mike MacIntyre has done in Boulder, but we've gotten to a point where his team is overvalued, I think. To me, the big stories are that CU is still unbeaten ATS and that over the summer, they probably would have been considered underdogs in this matchup. As Pac 12 rivals, UCLA is 5-0 SU. The last two years have seen them prevail by just three and four points, but still that doesn't mean they deserve to be getting this many points. Fafaul now has plenty of game experience and completed 40 out of a mind-numbing 70 pass attempts vs. Utah. The Bruins' five losses this season have come by a total of 32 points, or less than 7 PPG. This will easily be the most points that they have gotten from the oddsmakers in any game this season. 10* UCLA |
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11-03-16 | Celtics v. Cavs -9.5 | Top | 122-128 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Anyone thinking there might a "championship hangover" with the Cavaliers best think again as they are off to a 4-0 start, outscoring opponents by 11.5 points per game. Certainly, it will be a bit of a somber mood tonight in Cleveland after the Indians dropped Game 7 of the World Series across the plaza last night. But that's nothing that LeBron and company can't rectify. This is a big Eastern Conference matchup on TNT considering much has been made of Boston being the Cavs top contender this season. But as you can see, the oddsmakers still believe there to be quite a gap at the top of the pecking order. I agree and will lay the points here as the Celtics are in the second game of a back to back. The Celtics did win last night, 107-100 at home against Chicago, placing them as one of a number of teams in the East at 3-1 SU, one game behind the Cavs. But Boston is only +3.0 in per game point differential, which shows they've hardly been dominant. In fact, every one of their games have been decided by seven points. Under Brad Stevens, they have been an outstanding bet in the second game of a back to back, going 25-12 ATS (league-best during that time). But this is quite the challenge as they could be w/o both Al Horford and Jae Crowder due to injury. Horford is in the league's concussion protocol after leaving last night's game. Crowder sprained his ankle. The team was fortunate to be picked up by Amir Johnson, whose 23-point effort included four three-pointers. Don't expect a repeat of that here. Cleveland was not at its best defensively (far from it) Tuesday night against Houston, but that can be excused given the Rockets forced the pace of play. The #1 team in offensive efficiency thus far, the Cavs scored 128 points for the game, which was moved up to a 6:05 ET start to accommodate the World Series. Even after allowing 120 pts to the Rockets, the Cavs are still top nine in defensive efficiency in the early going. They held both New York and Toronto to under 39% from the field. With Boston having struggled defensively against some subpar offensive opponents thus far, I expect James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love to all have big games here in what should turn into a somewhat surprising blowout. 8* Cleveland |
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11-02-16 | Rockets v. Knicks -1.5 | Top | 118-99 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): I don't have much affinity for the present construction of this Knicks squad (imagine trying to run the triangle offense in 2016 w/ Derrick Rose no less!), but this is a really favorable spot for them as they catch Houston off a big game in Cleveland. In a game where the start time was moved up to accommodate the World Series, the Rockets came up short, 128-120 against the World Champion Cavaliers. My gosh, this is a bad defensive team. Thus far, they are giving up an alarming 1.13 points per possession, the worst such mark in the league. Consider that the Lakers were last a year ago, allowing 1.09. That gap is far more significant that you might think. It's absolutely ludicrous that the Knicks were attracting so much action before the season to win the NBA Finals, but for one night they'll look good. Of course, the Knicks also played last night and lost. Defense wasn't necessarily their problem; rather they shot only 40.7% in a 102-89 loss. Both road games have resulted in less than desirable performances thus far as they also scored only 88 pts in a loss at Cleveland Opening Night. But the Knicks' one previous home game saw them score 111 pts in a win over Memphis. I'm calling for something along those lines here against the defensively inept Rockets. On the positive side, Rose at least contributed a season-high 19 points last night. For Houston, James Harden had a legendary game (41-15-7) last night in Cleveland, but it still wasn't enough. Harden is highly unlikely to match those kind of numbers again tonight; thus it's pretty tough to make a case for the Rockets winning. It's a heavy burden on Harden right now as starting PG Patrick Beverly remains out. Dating back to January of 2010, these teams have played a total of 13 games. The Knicks have won only once straight up (3-10 ATS), but that one win did come last year. Keep in mind they have fielded some pretty bad teams through the years. Also, all three ATS wins have come in the L5 meetings. I just think that the burden on Harden is too great in this second game of a back to back. Adding to the problem is that Trevor Ariza sustained a head injury last night and is listed as questionable here. 8* New York |
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11-02-16 | Lakers +11.5 v. Hawks | Top | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (7:35 ET): Through the first week of the season, it is Atlanta that owns the league's best per game point differential at +19.3. Don't expect them to keep that up, however, as this certainly does not grade out as one of the league's better teams. (I had them rated eighth in the East coming into the year). So, even hosting the Lakers, I look for that lofty point differential to start coming down. Be aware that the Hawks led the Wizards by only one point entering the fourth quarter in their season opener. It was a similar situation Monday hosting Sacramento as they trailed entering the 4Q of that one, before outscoring the Kings 27-14 over the final 12 minutes. This impressive point differential of theirs is basically owed to one game, that being a 104-72 road rout of lowly Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. I'm taking the points here. This is the Lakers' fourth consecutive road game and second of a back to back. That helps to explain why tonight's line is a bit inflated. Since surprising Houston, 120-114 (as six-point dogs) in the season opener (at home), it's been three straight losses for Los Angeles. But they've covered in two of the three, at Utah and last night at Indiana. Yet, we still find them getting the most points they've gotten in any game on the trip here tonight. I patently disagree with the idea of Atlanta laying more points to an opponent than Oklahoma City, the one team the Lakers have failed to cover against on this trip. Even that was a relatively competitive game for Luke Walton's team as they trailed by only four w/ just under five minutes remaining. Last night, they were more than competitive w/ the Pacers, rallying back from a 16-pt deficit to take the lead for a brief time in the fourth quarter. With Kobe Bryant out of the picture, the Lakers can now actually focus on getting better as a team. Last year was a disgrace that stunted the growth of the young players, who had to sit idly by and watch Kobe jack up an inordinate number of shots. We've already seen a modicum of improvement in the early going under Walton. I simply cannot support Atlanta in this price range. 8* LA Lakers |
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11-02-16 | Raptors v. Wizards +1 | Top | 113-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): It's been a relatively "light" schedule to this point for the Raptors and Wizards, both of whom are playoff hopefuls here in 2016. Actually, that moniker largely undersells what Toronto hopes to accomplish this season; they were in the Conference Finals a year ago and hope to at least make it back there. Then again, they have already failed their first test, that being a nationally televised home date vs. Cleveland. The result there was a 94-91 loss (they basically trailed wire to wire). Since then, they have bounced back w/ a three-point win over Denver. This will be the first road game for the Canadian contingent and ironically it's in our Nation's capital, a place the host Wizards have yet to play this season. Washington is 0-2 SU/ATS having dropped road games to Atlanta and Memphis. This is a non-playoff team from last year that I have ascending into the top eight in the East. The Southeast Division is clearly wide open and someone must fill the void left by the disintegration of the Heat. With one of the best backcourts in the league (John Wall and Bradley Beal), I believe the Wiz will be that team. You would have hoped they would at least split the first two games, but oh well. Against Atlanta, it was actually a one-point game entering the 4th quarter before things fell apart. The final score against Memphis was also a bit misleading in that the game went to OT, only after Marc Gasol hit a three-pointer in the final seconds of regulation. That was a brutal situation as Gasol made 4 three-pointers in that game; which is one more than he made all of last season. Last year, Toronto owned Washington head to head as they took all four matchups. Two were decided by three points or less, however. This being the Wizards' home opener and them being well rested is a significant advantage, I think. Over the L3 seasons, Toronto is just 31-46 ATS following a game where they scored 105+ points (They beat Denver 105-102). Opponents will NOT continue to shoot 47% from three-point range against Washington. I point to what Minnesota (a team that blew leads in its first two games) did last night as evidence the Wizards are in line for a strong performance tonight. 10* Washington |
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11-01-16 | Jazz +10.5 v. Spurs | Top | 106-91 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:35 ET): This game sets up rather perfectly from where I sit. The demise of the Spurs has certainly been greatly exaggerated as Gregg Popovich's bunch is off to a 4-0 start - both SU and ATS. Most notably, they crushed Golden State on Opening Night, 129-100, and remember that was a road game! Since then, they've beaten three sub-par foes - Sacramento, New Orleans and Miami - all by comfortable margins. But what this run has done is greatly inflate the line for what projects as a tough, low-scoring matchup w/ the improved Jazz. Considering how the low the total is for this matchup, unless the Spurs turn in some sort of remarkable defensive effort, I don't see how they are able to cover this number. Take the points. Utah is the chic pick in the Western Conference this year. While they did not make the playoffs last year (finished 40-42), they had a per game point differential (+1.2) that was better than four teams that qualified. (Only the heavyweights - GSW, SA, OKC and LAC - were better!). But, so far, this year has been a bit of a disappointment. They stand at only 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS following an embarrassing 88-75 loss to the Clippers on Sunday. Seeing that point total, I shouldn't have to tell you that it was a pretty horrendous shooting night for the team as they connected on only 39.7% of their FG attempts and the four starters other than George Hill combined to score only 20 points. Even facing a top tier foe like San Antonio, improvement is all but guaranteed tonight. The Jazz definitely miss Gordon Hayward (out first 20 games), but there is still plenty of talent on hand here. Hill led the way w/ 18 pts Sunday afternoon and backup PG Dante Exum was also in double figures. The quartet of Boris Diaw, Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood and Joe Johnson combined to go a miserable 8 of 25 vs. LA and that will be improved upon here. Clearly, all the preseason praise led to an overvaluation in the market, but now the team is back to being properly rated, if not undervalued. They have had their struggles in the last few seasons in San Antonio, but this is the best they've brought here in a while. Again, taking the points in a game projected to be as low scoring as this one is typically a good idea, particularly if its a conference game. 10* Utah |
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11-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Ball State +17.5 | Top | 52-20 | Loss | -102 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
8* Ball State (8:00 ET): Headed into Saturday, we still had nine unbeaten teams across the nation. Seven of the nine (Alabama & Western Michigan both off) found themselves playing on the road and four (WVU, Baylor, Nebraska, Boise State) lost outright. After having the weekend off, Western Michigan now tries to avoid that same fate as it travels to Muncie, IN to face Ball State. While the Cardinals are somewhat predictably 0-7 SU as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 pts the L3 seasons, they've managed to cover five of those games and not once this season have they lost by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here tonight. Of course, Western Michigan is easily the best team in the MAC, but the pressure is now on the Broncos as they play for the "Group of Five" spot in a New Year's Day Bowl Game. Take the points. HC PJ Fleck has simply done a phenomenal job here in Kalamazoo. His first year here (2013)saw the team go just 1-11 SU, but they jumped up to eight wins the following year and then repeated that feat last season. This year, they're off to the 8-0 SU start and have two wins against Big 10 teams (Illinois, Northwestern). All four MAC wins have come by at least two touchdowns and like I said before; there's no denying that this is the best team this conference has to offer. But this is some heavy weight that the Broncos are laying here. This is more points than they laid against Akron, who is probably an inferior foe compared to BSU. Only once during Fleck's tenure here has WMU been asked to lay more points on the MAC road and that was LY against an Eastern Michigan squad that finished 1-11 SU. It seems like there's plenty of value on the home dog tonight. Revenge is also a motivating factor here as certainly the Ball State players remember the way they were thrashed LY in Kalamazoo. The final score read 54-7 in favor of WMU, the largest margin of victory ever in this series. But this is a better Cardinals' team as they've already topped LY's three-win total and haven't dropped a game by more than 10 points. They did lose their last time out, outright here at home to Akron (25-35, -3.5), but are a perfect 3-0 ATS as dogs this season, including an outright win at Georgia State. This will be the first time they're getting points at home under 1st year HC Mike Neu, whose team has scored at least 20 points in all eight games this year. The offense has the MAC's leading rusher in RB James Gilbert (987 yds, 11 TDs) and this team is the third least penalized in the country! It was only a four point game in WMU's last visit here, two years ago. 8* Ball State |
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10-31-16 | Vikings v. Bears +5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:25 ET): This is quite the interesting game to handicap. We have one of the league's perceived best teams (Vikings) laying a short number to one of the perceived worst (Bears) and predictably the majority of bettors are all over the road chalk in this one. But alarm bells should be going off when you see how the line has moved throughout the week. This appears to be a classic "pros vs. joes" matchup w/ the sharp dollars on the home dog. If you're a regular client/follower of mine, then you already know that I'm a firm believer in the idea of regression to the mean. Well, Minnesota is 18-4 ATS its L22 games. But last week found them in this exact same role of road chalk and they lost outright at Philadelphia. As the public continues "warming up" to the Vikes, I predict that sparkling ATS record to take a significant hit. Meanwhile, the Bears are a dreadful 1-6 SU/ATS this year and going back to last season, just 2-8 SU/3-7 ATS at home! These respective numbers HAVE to start moving closer to the average, no? I'm taking the points. The big story w/ Chicago is that Jay Cutler is back as the starting QB. Though Brian Hoyer put up some big numbers in Cutler's absence, they didn't necessarily mean anything in the grand scheme of things. Cutler is also a clear upgrade over the only other QB option, Matt Barkley, who had to go most of the way in the team's loss last week to Green Bay. Of interest here is that the Bears have had a long time to prepare for this game, going from a Thursday night game to a Monday night affair. While this Bears offense may rank dead last in the league in points per game (15.9), they're actually a respectable 18th in yards per game, which tells me they've left many scoring opportunities "on the table." This offense is actually a lot better than its given credit for as is evident by the fact it rolled up over 900 yards in close losses to the Colts and Jaguars. Meanwhile, this Minnesota offense is nowhere near as good as its given credit for. With Adrian Peterson out of the lineup, the running game has become persona non grata, averaging only 74.3 YPG. Their season high for yards on the ground in a game is a paltry 104. They are last in the league at 2.6 yds per carry. The offensive line is not particularly good. I'm not ready to anoint QB Sam Bradford as anything special either. He looked like the "old Bradford" in LW's loss at Philly. In three road games this year, the Vikings have scored a total of TWO offensive TD's and one came in garbage time (0:37 left) LW. This team is a very pedestrian 12th in YPG differential (Chicago is 17th!). In what projects as a low-scoring game, taking the points is the obvious way to go. 10* Chicago |
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10-30-16 | Lakers +8 v. Thunder | Top | 96-113 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): Though Bryant himself was terrible last year, the expectation was for the post-Kobe era Lakers to really struggle this year. Instead, they opened the campaign w/ a surprise win at home (over Houston) and then covered the spread at Utah Friday night. Here, we find them making the trip to OKC and I feel the value is on them as the dog. OKC is 2-0 SU, but also 0-2 ATS as the numbers vs. both Philadelphia and Phoenix proved to be too much. The Thunder are of course also dealing w/ a major offseason departure, that being Kevin Durant. While Russell Westbrook and a formidable frontcourt will be enough to keep them near the top of the Western Conference, it appears as if that's not enough to cover spreads against the teams perceived to be at the bottom of the league. Take the points. In fact, at home, the Thunder were taken to overtime by Phoenix on Friday night. It took 51 points and a triple double from Russell Westbrook to get the 'W.' It was the first time since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1974-75 that we saw a player acheive a triple-double w/ at least 50 points. Such a performance from Westbrook might be both a "blessing and a curse" for OKC this year. While obviously a talented player that's capable of carrying this team to 50+ wins, Westbrook figures to dominate the ball a bit too much and that likely will lead to a few "bad" performances as well throughout the season. The team could become too reliant and the offense too stagnant. Consider only one other player was in double figures Fri night (Victor Oladipo). The team shot just 41.7% from the floor w/ Westbrook taking 44 of the team's 96 attempts. The Lakers have not beaten the Thunder since March of 2014. That's eight consecutive losses and they are just 2-5-1 ATS in those matchups as well. Last year, they were a double digit dog in all four and covered only once. Despite that, there's no denying that the Lakers look like a better team so far in 2016. While OKC figures to have one player dominate the ball, LA is now "done with that" as Bryant thankfully retired. 8* LA Lakers |
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10-30-16 | Chargers +4.5 v. Broncos | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 36 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:05 ET): More often than not, I've been on the Chargers this year. This play will make it four straight weeks. I've cashed them each of the last three, including B2B outright wins over Denver and Atlanta. Save for a 38-14 blowout of lowly Jacksonville in Week 2 (which I was also on!), every Chargers game this year has been close. As in decided by one possession. Their largest loss this year is six points and that was an overtime game (Week 1 vs. KC) where they blew a 27-10 fourth quarter lead. I'll continue to stump that this team is better than its overall record (now 3-4 SU) as they have a YTD point differential of +21, which is better than all but nine teams in this league. They really dominated Denver at home and are capable of beating them again. Take the points. That Week 6 win over the Broncos, which came as 3.5-pt underdogs on a Thursday night, really saw San Diego assert itself from the start. They never trailed and actually led 21-3 early in the fourth quarter. This being the Chargers, they led Denver back in it and things got far too close for comfort by the end. It ended up a 21-13 win after a Denver Hail Mary attempt fell short. Now, Broncos supporters will want to point to the absence of HC Gary Kubiak from the sidelines in that one. But I've never been one to rate Kubiak as one of the stronger coaches in the league. I still think SD is due to start winning more division games; the win two weeks ago snapped a 10-game SU losing streak to AFC West foes. Their last road division win came over Oakland back in 2014. Isn't it about time for that to change? Last week, when I took SD over Atlanta, I noted the bad situation the Falcons found themselves in. They were off a tough, close loss at Seattle the week prior. Playing the Seahawks often has a negative carryover effect to the following game because they are so physical. Well, here, Denver is working on a short week as they played Monday night. Though the defense re-established itself in the 27-9 win over Houston, Trevor Siemian and the offense really didn't impress. Now that group is w/o starting RB CJ Anderson. The Broncos also have injury issues on the defensive side of the ball. San Diego has its own injury issues, but have already demonstrated an ability to overcome them. They've also demonstrated an ability to cover as underdogs, particularly on the road when priced between +3.5 and +7. They're 7-0 ATS L7 in that role. San Diego was my pick for most improved this season while I had Denver regressing. I'm not coming off either point. 10* San Diego |
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10-30-16 | Patriots v. Bills +6 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 31 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Obviously, the focus here will be on the revenge angle as back in Week 4, the Bills handed the Patriots their only loss of the year to date via a 16-0 shutout. Of course, that was against a banged-up, third-string rookie QB (Jacoby Brissett). Since Tom Brady returned from his suspension, the Pats have been virtually untouchable. They've won and covered all three games, beating Cleveland, Cincinnati & Pittsburgh (all AFC North teams!) each by double digits. New England's 6-1 ATS record is the league's best currently. Because of the aforementioned revenge angle, this line has become inflated. The Bills still have a top five scoring differential in the league and are a live dog here. Take the points. Perhaps the Bills were a bit of a "bubble" in the sense that entered LW w/ the league's top scoring differential and riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They got upset at Miami, losing 28-25. While outgained significantly there (454-267), thanks to 200+ yards rushing from the Dolphins' Jay Ajayi, it should be noted that they entered the fourth quarter w/ a 17-14 lead. It was actually a 17-6 game entering the final minute of the third quarter. As anticipated, the Bills defense has been much better in the second year under Rex Ryan, allowing just 18.7 PPG. Last week marked just the second time they allowed more than 20 and again, they had given up only 6 through 44 minutes. At the same time, this offense has continued to improve, led by emerging QB Tyrod Taylor. Five of the last six weeks, they've scored 25+ points. That makes them very attractive as a home underdog. Yes, Bill Belichick has NEVER been swept by an AFC East rival in his tenure here. But that is precisely what has helped inflate this line. Buffalo is getting roughly the same respect a Roethlisberger-less Steelers team did last week and that is something I patently disagree with. While New England has absolutely established itself as the premier team in thiss league right now, I would argue that this will be their toughest opponent to date. I've mentioned this before, but while NE is 4th in points per game allowed, they are 14th in yards. That "bend but don't break" approach typically cannot last. The Bills are 13-6 ATS as an underdog the L3 years, including 7-2 if priced between +3.5 and +9.5. They're 2-0 SU/ATS as a home dog of +3.5 to +7. 10* Buffalo |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers -3 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 47 h 31 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): This is an absolutely horrible spot for Arizona. Not only are they off a game against division rival Seattle, a team I've previously identified as having a "car crash" type effect on its opponents' next game, but that was an extraordinarily physical game that went 75 minutes to a tie. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know I played against Atlanta last week as they were coming off a physical, down to the wire game against Seattle the week prior. The Falcons ended up losing outright, wilting late, 33-30 in OT. To add insult to injury, kickoff was moved here to 1:00 ET, which is 11 AM local for Arizona. Meanwhile, Carolina is rested and ready coming off its bye. I say lay the short number in this one. The Panthers being 1-5 SU and ATS so far is one of the real shockers in the league. This is the defending NFC Champion after all. Their only win was here at home over lowly San Francisco in Week 2, 46-27, a game they were favored by 11.5. Since then, it's been four consecutive outright losses. The first two were to Minnesota and Atlanta, both of whom have turned out to be division leaders. They outgained the Vikings, but were undone by a -3 turnover margin there. The 17-14 loss to Tampa Bay again saw the TO bug rear its ugly head and that can be pinned on backup QB Derek Anderson as Cam Newton (concussion) had to sit out that game. The defense was downright atrocious in a 41-38 loss at New Orleans. Despite what you've just read, Carolina is still outgaining its opponents by 22.8 yards per game! The last seven times the Panthers have been a home favorite of three points or less, they've won and covered six times. The bye allowed them to get healthy, particularly in the secondary w/ James Bradberry and Robert McClain back. The offense is 13th in the league in yards per play and third in # of 10+ yard plays. I realize that the Cardinals, like the Panthers, are better than their record and have revenge for LY's NFC Title Game disaster on this field. But revenge alone will not be enough to overcome what is an absolutely horrible spot situationally. This is their eighth straight game w/o a bye. 10* Carolina |
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10-29-16 | Stanford v. Arizona +5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 32 m | Show |
8* Arizona (11:00 ET): Late night in Tucson, I believe this to be a great spot for struggling Arizona (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) to get back on track. For starters, the Wildcats are off a bye. Last time we saw them, they were being humbled 48-14 here at home by USC. They are -7 in turnovers the L2 games. This is a team that gave Washington its toughest test to date. The Wildcats are now a dog for a fifth straight time in Pac 12 competition, but fortunately it comes against struggling Stanford, losers of three of their last four. The big problem w/ the Cardinal being a road favorite is they simply don't score much. Last week, at home, they were held to 5 points in a humbling defeat at the hands of Colorado. The line movement for this matchup clearly indicates that the home dog is the sharp side here. Take the points. Even when Stanford was 3-0 SU, there were some pretty clear warning signs that trouble might lie ahead. They were outgained 335-272 by Kansas State in the opener. Only 109 yards passing against USC was certainly uninspiring. The finish against UCLA speaks for itself as they trailed 13-9 and after scoring the go ahead TD late, recovered a fumble on the final play to "steal" the cover. The wheels have come off ever since. I went against them in Washington when they were humliated 44-6, the worst loss of the David Shaw era. The next week is when things really began to go off the rails as Washington State came to Palo Alto and won 42-16. An ugly 17-10 win over Notre Dame (neither team gained 300 total yds) turned out to be only a one-week repreive as they scored just 5 points LW at home vs. Colorado, their fourth straight game gaining less than 300 total yards. I mentioned Arizona's turnover issues earlier, well, the same issue has haunted Stanford as well. The Cardinal have turned it over in every game this year, including 10 the L3 weeks. So, that is a battle to watch, as it likely decides the game. Stanford is 9-2 SU the L11 matchups, including four straight wins (55-17 LY as 11-pt home favorites), but this year's edition is nowhere near as strong. Off the bye, Rich Rod pulls one of his patented upsets. 8* Arizona |