Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-23-22 | Jazz +6 v. Celtics | Top | 97-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Utah (7:40 ET): I really respect Boston, but this is too many points to lay to the Jazz, who are looking to bounce back from a loss. Utah has been one of the top teams in the league all season. In fact, I’ve got them second in the power rankings, one spot ahead of the Celtics. So this line doesn’t make much sense to me. Boston is off a 4-0 road trip - where every win came by at least nine points - but it wouldn’t shock me to see them a little “gassed” in their return to Beantown. Meanwhile, with just a one game lead over 5th place Dallas in the race for homecourt advantage, there’s a great sense of urgency for the road team tonight. Take the points. Utah lost in Brooklyn Monday night, 114-106, falling victim to a 37-point performance from Kevin Durant. The Jazz had previously won three straight and the good news is they perform well off a loss. The last time this team lost consecutive games was late January. Since then, they’ve followed their last five SU defeats with a win, including a 15-point victory over Chicago the last time they were in this situation. Something to consider is that while Boston leads the league in defensive efficiency, Utah leads the league in offensive efficiency. They are tough to stop and getting this many points with a team that averages 113.9 PPG is rare. The Celtics actually just gave up 123 to Oklahoma City (who is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league) the other night. Now that number feels like a bit of an aberration, but consider Utah put up 137 when these teams last met, back in December (and there was no overtime). Boston ended up scoring 132 against the Thunder Monday night, but they are just 1-5 ATS this season after scoring 130+ in the previous game. The Jazz have won the last four head to head meetings and a 4-0 ATS their last four trips here to Boston. 8* Utah |
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03-21-22 | Wolves v. Mavs -3 | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:40 ET): The Timberwolves sure are “humming” right now. They’re up to sixth in the Western Conference, and have fifth place Dallas in their sights, after winning (and covering) 10 of their last 11 games. Last time out, the T’wolves beat Milwaukee 138-119 as a 3.5-point favorite. That line swung dramatically after it was announced Giannis Antetokounmpo would not be playing for the Bucks. Minnesota took full advantage of the absence, shooting the lights out, including 22 of 47 from three-point range. But I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate tonight when they face the team they are chasing for fifth. Dallas returns home tonight after a five-game road trip that started well and ended poorly. The Mavericks won the first three games of that five-game trip, including victories over Boston and Brooklyn. But then they lost at Philadelphia and Charlotte on Friday & Saturday. Perhaps they “ran out of gas,” but the bottom line is they can’t afford many more stumbles with just a 1.5 game lead over the T’wolves and Nuggets. The last thing the Mavs want is to “fall into” the play-in round. It’s been a LONG time since Dallas has lost three in a row (Dec 3-7), so I expect a bounce back tonight at home. The Mavs have a big edge defensively in this matchup. They allow just 102.2 PPG at home while the T’wolves are allowing 117.1 on the road. Remember that I faded the T’wolves, successfully, in their lone loss in the L11 games, which was at Orlando. Because of the strong numbers at the defensive end, Dallas is 23-12 SU at home this season. Look for Luka Doncic, who is averaging 28.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 8.5 assists, to get more “help” here than he did in the last game. Role players tend to produce more at home. 10* Dallas |
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03-20-22 | Iowa State v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 54-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (6:10 ET): The Badgers have thrived in close games this season, so it wasn’t much of a surprise to see them “turn it on” late against 14-seed Colgate Friday night. Trailing most of the game, Wisconsin went on a 10-0 run to take the lead for good and held the Raiders scoreless for over seven minutes. The favorite ended up not covering (won 67-60, were -7.5), but I’m going to lay the points here as I think the Badgers got a favorable second round draw with an Iowa State team that I’ve not been sold on all season. Lay the points. Iowa State shot just 35.7% in the first round, but it was enough to pull the upset over LSU, 59-54 as 3.5-point dogs. Remember that the Tigers had just fired their HC, the day before Selection Sunday. So the Cyclones really got lucky with the draw. The turnaround in Ames has been pretty remarkable this season, considering that last year the Cyclones finished 2-22 SU overall and didn’t win a single Big 12 game! They started 2021-22 by winning their first 12 games, but are only 9-12 SU since (including Friday’s win) and had dropped three in a row coming into the NCAA Tournament. Most concerning is the lack of offense; ISU has been held below 60 pts in three of its last four games. Wisconsin commits the fewest number of turnovers per game (8.5) in the nation and gave it away only five times against Colgate. So this team does not beat itself. Like Iowa State, the Badgers have been a surprise team this season (were picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten), but that’s all water in the bridge. I know I’ve pointed to an unsustainable record in close games, but this is a game Wisconsin should win big. I just don’t think ISU is very good. Over the last four games, the Cyclones were held to 36 points by OK State and 41 by Tex Tech! Wisconsin will certainly make more threes than LSU did (only four) here. 10* Wisconsin |
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03-19-22 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | Top | 109-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-18-22 | Bulls +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 102-129 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago (10:10 ET): The two surprise teams in the East, Chicago and Cleveland, have both started to fall off a bit in the second half of the season. In the case of the Bulls, they’ve won just two of their last nine games, going 1-8 ATS, and are now down to 5th place in the Conference. (Remember that they were once in 1st). With seventh place Toronto making a move, the Bulls need to get things turned around in a hurry or they risk falling into the “play-in round” for the playoffs. Despite recent form, I’m going to take the points here as the road team comes in desperate and motivated. Shortly after the All-Star Break, Phoenix dropped B2B games (to New Orleans and Utah), but they’ve since battled back to win seven of their last nine, despite not having PG Chris Paul. The last three games have all been wins and covers for the Suns, one over the Pelicans in a revenge spot. But the other two wins were against the Lakers and Rockets, the former a sinking ship and the latter the worst team in the Western Conference. At 56-14 on the year (best record in the NBA), the Suns have nothing to worry about, but I could see them coming out flat here. The Bulls have certainly seen their defensive numbers take a hit over the last month or so, but Alex Caruso (one of their top defenders) is now back and that should help. Losing at Utah on Wednesday night really shouldn’t be taken as a big deal. Now losing Monday in Sacramento was bad. But I just think this Bulls team comes out ready to play on Friday. Right now feels like a “buy low” spot on a team that was once first in the Eastern Conference standings. 8* Chicago |
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03-18-22 | CS-Fullerton +18.5 v. Duke | Top | 61-78 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
10* CS Fullerton (7:10 ET): Duke has been a complete mess defensively of late. Over the last four games, the Blue Devils have surrendered an average of 82.8 points per game and rank 224th in defensive efficiency. So I’ll gladly grab the big number here with Cal State Fullerton, who won the Big West Tournament to get here. The Titans have held their last five opponents to 39.9% shooting. Obviously, that’s against weaker competition than they’ll see here. But I still see the 15-seed staying inside the number. Duke comes into the Tournament on an 0-4 ATS losing skid. They dropped Coach K’s home finale, losing to rival North Carolina 94-81. Then it was two close wins in the ACC Tournament over Syracuse and Miami. They lost in the Finals, to Virginia Tech, 82-67 as a 5.5-point favorite. I would have expected the ATS losing skid to scare the public off here, but it has not and, in fact, the line has only gotten bigger. I think because of the name on the front of the jersey, this team is overvalued right now. The Blue Devils are young and inexperienced. An outright upset seems unlikely here, although we did see a 15-seed (St. Peter’s) win yesterday. But CS Fullerton has dropped only two games over the last month and those two losses were by a combined eight points. The Titans are a very solid 6-2 ATS as underdogs this season and should come in “loose” as they are essentially playing with “house money” here. Duke’s lack of defense down the stretch makes them a prime candidate to fade as a big favorite. 10* CS-Fullerton |
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03-18-22 | Virginia Tech v. Texas | Top | 73-81 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
8* Texas (4:30 ET): I think we’re getting a GREAT discount on Texas here as this line looks like it might “jump the fence.” I assume the public infatuation has to do with Va Tech winning the ACC Tournament. Now I very much thought the Hokies were capable of making a run in that event, but mainly that was because the ACC was so “down” this season. And the Hokies only finished SEVENTH in that league. Conversely, Texas made an early exit in the Big 12 Tourney, losing in the quarterfinals to TCU. But the Longhorns are still sixth in the country in points allowed (59.6 per game) and have a big edge at that end of the floor. I understand that Texas comes into the NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak where they’ve not topped 63 in any game. But two of those defeats came to Baylor and Kansas (both 1-seeds) and they had an 18-point lead over TCU in the Big 12 Tourney. All but two of this team’s losses this season came to ranked foes. Va Tech is unranked. Teams are shooting just 41.2% against the Longhorns, so I just don’t see the Hokies hitting at the same rate they did against the weak defenses of the ACC. The Horns have had just one losing streak longer than three games in the L3 seasons. Let’s also not forget Va Tech was just 19-12 SU before winning four games in four days to clinch their spot here. One of those wins in came in overtime and required a buzzer beater. I did think - that like Texas - the Hokies were being underrated much of the year. But Texas was a preseason top five team. I think this is a classic case of “recency bias” as too many people are focused on Va Tech’s ACC Tourney run and not the big picture. Teams that are only in the field due to winning the automatic berth from their conference are good first round fades, in my opinion. 8* Texas |
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03-18-22 | Loyola-Chicago v. Ohio State | Top | 41-54 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 40 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (12:15 ET): So, as many of you already know, I rely heavily on a team’s defensive efficiency rating this time of year. Well, in this matchup of Loyola Chicago and Ohio State, my side looks to have a major edge in that regard. Champions of the Missouri Valley, Loyola is #22 in the country in defensive efficiency. Ohio State is #130, easily the worst rating of anyone in the KenPom top 40. Look for the Ramblers to exploit this edge and move on to the Round of 32. Ohio State was upset LY in the first round of the tourney, as a 2-seed, losing 75-72 to Oral Roberts. That Buckeyes team was better than this edition, but still only rated 82nd in defensive efficiency. Now the problem seems to be even worse. Last year’s upset loss was also nothing new for Chris Holtmann. His teams are now just 11-17 SU all-time in Conference/NCAA Tournaments. That includes an early exit from this year’s Big 10 proceedings, 71-68 to Penn State as a 5.5-point favorite. Also, don’t discount the fact the Buckeyes had to play seven games from 2/19 to 3/6 as a result of postponements. Loyola ended up being the four seed for the MVC Tournament, but that was highly misleading as an OT loss to Northern Iowa on the final day of the regular season dropped them from the top spot and they fell victim to a tiebreaker. The Ramblers were always the best team in “the Valley” this season and showed it in the Conference Tourney, including a whipping of N Iowa 66-43. In its last five games that ended in regulation, Loyola has allowed no more than 58 points. While offensively, they don’t score a ton, the Ramblers do shoot 56% from two-point range, top 25 in the country. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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03-17-22 | San Francisco +1.5 v. Murray State | Top | 87-92 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (9:50 ET): I think the line is moving in the wrong direction here, for this 7 vs 10 matchup. Yes, I know Murray State is 30-2 SU and hasn’t lost since December 22nd to Auburn. But San Francisco is the better team from the better conference with a higher defensive efficiency rating. The Dons stayed undefeated into December and one-third (3 of 9) of their losses came to top-ranked Gonzaga. Other than Gonzaga, not a single team beat SF by more than five points this year! Five of their losses were by two points or less! So I’m taking full advantage of this line move and grabbing the points. My own power ratings are simply not as high on Murray State as some others. I’ve got the Racers just outside my Top 50. I know that they probably would have been an at-large team had they not won the OVC Tournament and got the automatic bid. But that was a fairly weak league, outside of Belmont and Morehead State, neither of whom were in my Top 85. Murray State also really benefited from the fact they shot 157 more free throws than their opponents this season and attempted 149 more field goals. If they’re not getting to the line and not getting those second chance opportunities, then they could be in real trouble. San Francisco has a strong backcourt and is also likely getting back big man Yauhen Massalski (13.5 points, 9.4 rebounds per game), which is a big boost. The Dons have not been in the NCAA Tournament since 1998, so they will be highly motivated here. Not that Murray State won’t be, but to me the Racers have the feel of being a bit “too trendy,” especially considering four of their last seven wins were by four points or fewer. Murray State lacks depth in the frontcourt and doesn’t shoot free throws well. San Francisco is outstanding at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit less than 30% from deep. 8* San Francisco |
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03-17-22 | New Mexico State v. Connecticut -6.5 | Top | 70-63 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
10* UConn (6:50 ET): We all know the history of the 5-12 (seed) matchup. In 31 of the last 36 Tournaments, at least one 12-seed has won a first round game. But only one did so last year and that team (Oregon State) came from a P5 conference. I just don’t see it here with New Mexico State and, in fact, I believe 5-seed UConn should be an even larger favorite here. The Huskies have won seven of their past nine games and the two losses were by a combined five points. My own power ratings suggest this should be a double digit spread. So I’m laying the points. UConn is a team with tremendous length, one that grabs the second highest percentage of its own misses in the country. Only Kentucky had a higher offensive rebound percentage. When 6’9” Adama Sanogo is on the floor, the Huskies rebound 39% of their misses and also make 39% of their 3PA. Sanogo missed the team’s lone meeting with Big East Champ Providence this year. I don’t think NMSU has any ability to match up with him and UConn’s massive edge in size and length is going to be a big problem for the underdog in this one. New Mexico State is making its 10th NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 under four different coaches. The problem is the Aggies have not won in the Big Dance since 1993. The WAC is a really weak league. Concerning for NMSU is their turnover rate (21%) as UConn is certainly better than most teams the Aggies have faced. I know NMSU hasn’t lost a game by more than four points since January, but again … the competition. They lost to a terrible Chicago State team. UConn is looking to end its own NCAA Tourney drought as their last win in the Big Dance came back in 2016 . Look for that to end here as the Huskies win BIG. 10* UConn |
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03-17-22 | Marquette +4 v. North Carolina | Top | 63-95 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
8* Marquette (4:30 ET): Once again, this is a matchup where I feel the public is “loading up” far too much on one side, given the respective seedings. Marquette did not have a particularly strong finish to its regular season, going 4-6 SU L10 and getting bounced from the Big East Tournament, 74-63 by Creighton. But I’m not all that impressed with North Carolina as the ACC was “down” significantly this season and the Tar Heels only finished third. They did go on a late season run, including a win over Duke in Coach K’s final home game. But that’s overvalued them a bit. They lost by 13 to Va Tech in the ACC Tourney. Marquette had some close losses down the stretch and thus their SU record could be a lot better. The Golden Eagles have a higher defensive efficiency rating than UNC, something I look at this time of year. In fact, the Tar Heels are giving up a whopping 77.4 PPG outside of Chapel Hill. That simply will not get it done in an NCAA Tournament game, especially when favored. Marquette had the Big East’s most efficient offense inside the three-point arc, shooting 53.1% on 2PA, and they were also 37% from three-point range. Bottom line: I look for Marquette to SCORE in this matchup. I know that Marquette HC Shaka Smart didn’t win a NCAA Tournament game at Texas and his Golden Eagles were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Big East poll. But they might be better than UNC at BOTH ends of the floor. Defensively, no team in the Big East was better at defending the three-point line. Opponents made just 31.8% from behind the arc against the Golden Eagles. North Carolina is a team that often loses when it’s not making its threes (2-7 SU against Quad 1 teams). Also, Marquette led the Big East in steal rate. Let’s not forget UNC lost at home to Pitt last month. Marquette swept Villanova this year and beat Providence once. 8* Marquette |
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03-17-22 | Memphis v. Boise State +3 | Top | 64-53 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
8* Boise State (1:45 ET): Memphis seems to be far too popular a choice here, given the seeding. I know the Tigers are a hot team, winners of 12 of their last 14, but they just got blown out in the AAC Title Game by Houston (71-53) and have to contend with a similarly hot Boise State squad. The Broncos, who will be supremely motivated by the fact the program has NEVER won a NCAA Tournament game (0-7 SU all-time), were regular season and conference tournament champions in the Mountain West. They’ve won 24 of their last 27 games and are an excellent team defensively. Take the points. With a Top 20 defensive efficiency rating, Boise State allows just 60.8 PPG. They held Colorado State (also a NCAA Tournament team) to 52 in the MWC Tourney Final. Offensively, though they didn’t really show it in that win over CSU, the Broncos are also very good. They’ve shot 50% or better in six of the last nine games. While Memphis has improved defensively throughout the season, the Tigers still are allowing 68.4 PPG. Boise State has lost only three games since the start of February and two of those were by just three points each. Memphis also has a major albatross and that is they turn the ball over way too much; nearly one-quarter of their possessions to be exact. Though they did beat Houston twice down the stretch, the Tigers’ “resurgence” mostly came against bad AAC teams that didn’t make the Tournament. Houston is better than any team from the MWC, but overall I’d say the Mountain West was stronger than the American this season. Boise State is 7-2 ATS as an underdog this year and I think the better team is getting points in this matchup. 8* Boise State |
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03-17-22 | Michigan -1 v. Colorado State | Top | 75-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
8* Michigan (12:15 ET): So both of these teams enter the NCAA Tournament with “chips” on their respective shoulders. Colorado State felt like it was snubbed from LY’s Tourney, so the Rams left little doubt in the minds of the committee this year with a 25-5 regular season. But it’s telling that - despite being ranked #24 in the country and the higher seed - CSU is still an underdog to a Michigan team that is just 17-14 SU and barely got in the field. I think it’s the Wolverines who are not only better, but have more to prove in this Round of 64 matchup. I’m laying the points. Don’t be fooled by Michigan’s record vis a vis Colorado State’s. The Wolverines played a much more challenging schedule, one that saw them play 15 “Quadrant 1” teams. KenPom has their schedule rated as the fifth toughest in the country. They successfully navigated their HC Juwan Howard being suspended, going 3-2, and should have beaten Indiana in the Big 10 Tournament (were up 17). Michigan is a team that, despite its record, is still considered Top 25 by my own personal power ratings. Let’s not forget they were in the Elite 8 a year ago. Colorado State not only played a weaker schedule (84th), but I thought they were a bit lucky this year (4th in luck rating at KenPom). The Rams also favor a significant matchup disadvantage here, going against MIchigan’s Hunter Dickinson, one of the best big men in America. The Rams are 304th (in the country) in average height and allowed Mountain West teams to connect at a 51% clip on two-point attempts in conference play. That’s not good. Offensively, they only averaged 55.5 points in two MWC Tourney games. Lay the points. 8* Michigan |
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03-16-22 | 76ers -4 v. Cavs | Top | 118-114 | Push | 0 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): The way things stand currently, this would be a first round playoff matchup in the East. While the underlying metrics suggest that it is Cleveland (the current 6-seed) who has had the “better” season overall, I don’t think the upstart Cavaliers would want to see the Sixers in a seven-game series. For starters, Philly beat them 125-119 when they last met (on March 4th). The Sixers are also clearly a stronger team now (because of James Harden) than they were in the first half of the season. Harden was in the Sixers’ lineup for that March 4th win over Cleveland. He scored 25 points. Each of Philly’s first five games with Harden in the lineup saw the team score at least 125. But the L5 have been a bit of a different story with them averaging just 105.8. But that number is a little misleading because it includes a 99-82 loss at Miami where Harden sat. I should also mention Joel Embiid, who leads the NBA in scoring at 29.9 PPG. The Harden-Embiid duo clearly makes Philly one of the top teams in the East. Now I did fade the Sixers their last time out, and they lost 114-110 (at home) to Denver. But the Nuggets are a better team than the Cavs. Note that Philly did jump out to an early 17-point lead over Denver. Cleveland comes into this game banged up, playing without All-Star Jarrett Allen as well as Rajon Rondo. So I don’t expect them to play as well as they did the last time they faced this Sixers team. Before beating the Clippers in OT on Monday, the Cavs had dropped two straight and five of seven. I know this is a reversal of Monday - when I faded Philly and took Cleveland (won both bets). But the matchup calls for it as I just think the 76ers are the far better team right now. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-16-22 | Bryant +3.5 v. Wright State | Top | 82-93 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
8* Bryant (6:40 ET): No matter who prevails in this “First Four” matchup, it won’t be a long NCAA Tournament stay for either Bryant or Wright State as the winner will go on to face the South's #1 seed, Arizona, in the Round of 64. Bryant, champions of the NEC, is making its first ever appearance in the Big Dance. Wright State, out of the Horizon League, is making its fourth (and first since 2018). Due to the perceived home court advantage for the Raiders (their campus is located just an hour away from Dayton), bettors seem willing to hitch their wagon. But I’m not convinced they should be the favorites here. Wright State has three double digit scorers, but little in the way of depth as four players are averaging 32+ minutes for HC Scott Nagy. If there’s foul trouble, the Raiders are going to be in big trouble here. Nagy seemed disappointed that his team was put in the “First Four,” but the reality is they were down 16 (with 11:47 left!) in the Horizon League Tourney Final against Northern Kentucky, so they’re a bit lucky to even be here. It was a one-point win, 72-71, in that game. Wright State is 262nd in defensive efficiency, worst among all 68 teams in the Tournament. That shaky defense will be tested by Bryant’s Peter Kiss, who is the nation’s leading scorer at 28.2 PPG and does an excellent job at getting to the FT line. The Bulldogs have lost just one game since Jan 6. In the NEC Tourney Final, they destroyed a very good Wagner team 70-43, which made me look foolish (I had Wagner). I know that Bryant benefited from some really poor three-point shooting by opponents in conference play. But Wright State shoots just 32.8% from long distance and I don’t think they are the team to exploit the Bulldogs’ defense. 8* Bryant |
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03-16-22 | Villarreal +0.5 v. Juventus | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
9* Villarreal (4:00 ET): I’m a little surprised at how the tide has seemingly “turned” against Villarreal, one of the hottest sides in all of Europe, following their 1-1 draw with Juventus in the first leg of this Round of 16 Champions League battle. Yes, it was terribly disappointing not to get the win on home soil. But I thought the Yellow Submarine looked like the better side in that match, winning both the possession and xG battles. They conceded a goal just thirty seconds in, but after that were the better team the rest of the way. So I am taking them +0.5 on the goal line in the second leg. (Must be at least even after 90 mins + stoppage time). Since Dec 10, when the UCL Group State ended, Villarreal has been averaging 1.95 xG per match while allowing just 0.93. That is very impressive. While still only seventh in the La Liga table, the Yellow Submarine have the third best GD in that league and should be higher. Looking at their current position on the domestic front, there’s probably a greater importance of winning this tournament, compared to the other remaining sides as there is far less of a guarantee that they will be returning next season. Juventus has moved up to fourth place in Serie A after what was a shaky start to the season. But their underlying metrics (in a weaker league) are not as strong as Villarreal’s. I know they are unbeaten in their last 12 fixtures across all competitions and have not lost at home in 2022. But It would not all surprise me to see Villarreal pull off the “upset” here, or like I said, at the very least be even at the end of stoppage time. Take the +0.5 on the goal line in this one. 9* Villarreal |
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03-16-22 | Borussia Dortmund v. Mainz +0.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
9* Mainz 05 (1:30 ET): For the first time in nearly a month, Mainz will step back onto the pitch, looking to further its chase for the European places in the Bundesliga. We last saw this side back on Feb 26, losing at Union Berlin by a score of 3-1. With all that has unfolded since, Mainz now finds itself 10th in the table, which is higher than usual but also disappointing given that they have a better YTD goal differential than the four teams directly ahead of them. At home and rested, I think they do no worse than a draw on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Borussia Dortmund is still somehow within striking distance of first place Bayern Munich, only seven points shy of the summit. I feel that Bayern should be running away with another Bundesliga title (would be their 10th straight), but recent struggles from the table leaders have caused this race to stay interesting. Dortmund is unbeaten in its last four competitions, including a 1-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld last week. But, at what point does the transfer talk surrounding Erling Haaland (rumored to be headed to Man City) begin to affect the club? I think soon! Mainz has only lost once on home soil this entire season, fewest in the entire Bundesliga. So that’s a key advantage coming into Wednesday’s fixture. Also, I really feel they ought to be higher in the table. Between this and Saturday’s date with Bielefeld, they’ve got an excellent shot at making up points this week. Obviously, they’re well-rested. Finally, you’ve got the fact that Dortmund has been a massive overachiever when it comes to goal scoring this season. They are +14.53 over their xG total. 9* Mainz 05 |
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03-15-22 | Belmont +4 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 71-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Belmont (7:00 ET): The NIT gets underway on Tuesday and you can call this “the Battle of Nashville” with Vanderbilt hosting Belmont in first round action. The underdog Bruins should be psyched for this matchup as it is a chance to beat a SEC program that is located right in their “backyard.” I believe Belmont is the better team here and the clincher is the fact they’ve been off for more than ten days while Vandy is just four days removed from the grind of the SEC Tournament. Take the points here. Belmont’s run in the OVC (Ohio Valley) Tourney ended with a disappointing two-point loss to Morehead State in the semifinal. That was just the second loss for Belmont, going back to mid-January. Since 2022 began, the only teams to beat the Bruins were Morehead State and Murray State. There have been only five instances this season where this team was beaten by more than three points. Rarely are they underdogs; just four times all season have the Bruins been getting points and three of those occasions were part of the non-conference schedule, back before X-Mas. Vanderbilt is one of the weaker SEC teams, though they are currently on a 7-1 ATS run. That’s in stark contrast to Belmont’s 1-8 ATS slide coming into tonight. But Vandy’s recent ATS success is a byproduct of typically being the underdog. They did have a nice upset of Alabama in the SEC Tourney, but were down 15 in the 2H of that game. Belmont is 3-0 ATS the previous three times they’ve played with seven or more days rest. I like the idea of the better team getting points and I think Belmont will be the more motivated team tonight as well. 10* Belmont |
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03-14-22 | Nuggets +2.5 v. 76ers | Top | 114-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Denver (7:40 ET): Playing side AND total in this matchup and let’s start by analyzing the former. Denver, despite four straight ATS losses, seems to be in a great spot here as Philadelphia is in the second night of a back to back and had to go to overtime last night to defeat Orlando (who has the worst record in the Eastern Conference). This line, perhaps influenced by the recent addition of James Harden for the 76ers, opened way too high. Take the points. The Nuggets are looking to bounce back from an embarrassing 127-115 defeat at home, which came against the Raptors. The final score there is a little deceiving as Denver led going into the 4Q. They had 99 points through three quarters, but went cold in the fourth, scoring only 16. Getting dominated in second chance points did not help matters. Still, there’s plenty of reasons to “keep the faith,” especially since the Nuggets have won five straight on the road. Philly won its first five games with Harden in the lineup, but then was blown out Thursday here at home by Brooklyn, then struggled to get by Orlando last night. The Sixers trailed by six going into the fourth quarter and have now failed to cover in four of the last five games, a sign that Harden has made them a bit overrated in the marketplace. The Nuggets have Nikola Jokic and this game marks just the third time over the last month that they have been underdogs. 8* Denver |
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03-14-22 | Clippers v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 111-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): This is a bad spot for the Clippers, who only managed to squeak by the Pistons last night. Now, I know I had LA in that one, as a 4.5-point favorite on the road. They won by just four after Detroit’s Cade Cunningham made a “meaningless” layup with just 8.2 seconds remaining. But to get the SU win, the Clips had to outscore the Pistons 67-49 in the 2H. This team remains short-handed (no George or Leonard) and there’s no real sense of urgency here as they seem destined for a play-in spot in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Cavs are desperate to hold on to a top six spot in the East. They’ve lost 8 of 11 amidst several key injuries and are also just 2-8-1 ATS in that same stretch. On Saturday, the Cavs went to Chicago for a key game and lost 101-91 as 5.5-point underdogs. That leaves them just one game ahead of seventh place Toronto. But they are still fourth in both point differential and net efficiency. I think tonight is a great spot for JB Bickerstaff’s team to get back on track, despite not having some key players. Back in October, Cleveland routed the Clippers 92-79 out in LA. That helped set the tone for a rather shocking first half of the season as the Cavs were arguably the league’s most pleasant surprise. They’ve taken a hit over the last month or so, but are still a much better team than the Clippers and I look for the Cavs to get back to playing solid defense tonight. They are #2 in the NBA in scoring defense (103.7 PPG allowed) and only give up 100.6 PPG at home. Lay the points. 8* Cleveland |
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03-14-22 | Manchester City v. Crystal Palace +1.5 | Top | 0-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace +1.5 (4:00 ET): Note that I’m playing the goal line (+1.5) in this fixture, so a Crystal Palace win, draw or even loss by one goal means we’re winners. Now fading Man City in this spot may seem a bit “risky,” but this will be the Citizens fourth match already in March, across three different competitions. Having already progressed in both the FA Cup and Champions League, the Premier League leaders also turned in an impressive 4-1 thrashing of rivals Manchester United last week. I think that there’s GOT to be some sort of letdown in store for them and CP has proven itself to be a “tough out” on home soil. Crystal Palace currently finds itself 11th in the table, with 33 points, however the Eagles should probably be higher given that they are eighth in the league in xPts. CP comes in on a four-match unbeaten run across all competitions, including their own advancement in the FA Cup. They ran out to a 2-0 win over Wolverhampton last week and have the edge here in the sense they haven’t played since last Saturday while Man City had to play the second leg of its Round of 16 Champions League tie with Sporting Lisbon on Wednesday. That ended up being a drab 0-0 draw. As mentioned earlier, Crystal Palace has been a “tough out” on home soil this season and should have more points. They are actually fourth in the league in xPts at home, so they are due for a positive result here. Remember that the Eagles shocked Man City earlier in the season with a 2-0 win at Etihad. The revenge angle, while in play for Man City, has clearly caused them to be overvalued for the rematch and I’ll gladly take the 1.5 goals in my “back pocket” with the underdog in this one. Man City comes into this one a little depleted on the back end. 10* Crystal Palace +1.5 |
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03-13-22 | Iowa v. Purdue -2 | Top | 75-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
8* Purdue (3:30 ET): We’ve got the potential for a real “shootout” here in the Big 10 Tournament Final as it’s a matchup of the two most efficient offenses in the entire country. But Iowa, playing its fourth game in four days, is at a disadvantage from where I sit. After pretty much breezing through their first two tourney games (beat N’western 112-76 and Rutgers 84-74), the Hawkeyes needed a second half rally to overcome Indiana in yday’s semifinal. Purdue ended up beating Michigan State by only five in the other semi, but led virtually the entire game. I’m going with who I feel has been the best Big 10 team all season. The Boilermakers beat the Hawkeyes both times in the regular season, 77-70 in West Lafayette and 83-73 in Iowa City. They had double digit halftime leads in both games and completely smoked the Iowa defense the last time they met, shooting 61.2% for the game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. I realize that Purdue is 0-7-1 ATS its last eight games, but the pointspread won’t be a factor here as we’re basically needing just a SU win. Iowa has hit 40 three-pointers in the three tournament games, which is quite ridiculous and eventually those shots won’t keep falling. Had they “only” made 39, there’s a chance they wouldn’t be here as it was Jordan Bohannon’s three with less than one second remaining yesterday that got them here. Meanwhile, Purdue was up by as many as 13 in the 2H on Saturday. The Boilermakers are 24-0 SU this season when scoring 70+ points and will almost certainly hit that benchmark today, given Iowa gives up 71.3 PPG. 8* Purdue |
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03-13-22 | Clippers -4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (3:10 ET): The Pistons, 18-49 with the worst point differential in the Eastern Conference, are getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers here, even if they are at home and have covered nine in a row. The Clippers will be desperate for a win here after losing in Atlanta Friday night, 112-106. The Clips at least covered the spread in that game (were +7.5), but clearly felt like they should have won, if not for some whistles not going their way. Marcus Morris’ ejection in the third quarter really hurt. The Pistons’ recent ATS run is a little shocking and with a short-handed lineup, it figures to end here. Multiple players in the regular rotation missed Friday’s 114-103 loss at Boston (where the Pistons were 14-point underdogs). Detroit lost by 11 even though the Celtics shot just 6 of 32 from three-point range. The Pistons allowed the Celtics to shoot 62% inside the arc and make 24 free throws. You also can almost never count on the Pistons’ offense, which is 28th in efficiency and 29th in points per game. The Clippers obviously are still without Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, but they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency and thus I don’t see them giving up many points here this afternoon. While LA certainly looks “safe” when it comes to making the play-in round, a loss here could be potentially devastating. It’s very rare to only have to lay a few points to go against this Pistons team, which has been an underdog in all but three games this season. It’s time to “sell high” on their ATS win streak. 8* LA Clippers |
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03-13-22 | Yale v. Princeton -3.5 | Top | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
10* Princeton (12:00 ET): Princeton was the clear class of the Ivy League this season, but even at 23-5 SU, their resume isn’t strong enough to guarantee an at-large berth in the NCAA Tournament. So the Tigers MUST win here against long-time rival Yale in the Ivy League Tournament Final. They come in riding an eight-game win streak after ousting Cornell in the semifinals yesterday, 77-73, a game where they did not cover the spread. Yale did cover on Saturday, beating Penn 67-61 as three-point chalk, and has won 10 of 12. The teams split the regular season series, each winning in the other’s gym. This rubber match is being played in Harvard’s gym, so no home court advantage for Princeton. But they do have a clear advantage on the offensive end of the floor as they rank eighth in the country in points per game (80.6) and seventh in three-point shooting (38.8%). Yale may normally be tough defensively, holding six of its last nine opponents to 65 points or less, but Princeton dropped 81 on them the last time they met. The Tigers have shot better than 50% each of their last three games. I know that Yale underachieved during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but Princeton has been the better team all season and it would be a bit of a shame if the Tigers aren’t the ones to grab the automatic bid. Yale typically feasts on getting to the free throw line and offensive rebounds, but Princeton is typically pretty good at limiting those two things. Yale is also just 4-11 ATS off an ATS win. 10* Princeton |
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03-12-22 | Wolves v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 113-104 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:10 ET): Looking to fade Minnesota for the second night in a row. Last night worked out pretty well, didn’t it? I said it was time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, who were on a 6-0 SU and ATS win streak going into Orlando. They lost outright, as a 7.5-point favorite, 118-110. Keep in mind that the Magic entered that game with the lowest win percentage in the entire NBA. Now, without rest, the T’wolves must turn around and face the East-leading Heat on the road. I’m fading the T’wolves again, though this time we must LAY points to do so. Miami was also in action Friday as they beat Cleveland 117-105 as an eight-point favorite. The Heat are now 45-23 SU on the season and have a 2.5 game lead over Milwaukee for the top spot in the East. They are now 6-1 ATS their last seven games. Last night ensured they’d keep alive a streak which has seen them not lose B2B games in almost two months. The Heat are 13-3 SU since Feb 3 and are a top six team in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season. As mentioned in yday’s analysis, Minnesota is subpar on the road (16-18 SU), mainly because of the fact it gives up an average of 116.9 PPG on their travels. The T’wolves are just 1-5 ATS when coming off a SU loss as a favorite and I don’t think the jump in class (in terms of opponent) can be overstated here. The T’wolves previous five games saw them face the Thunder twice, Blazers twice and Magic. Those three teams are a combined 73 games below .500! The offensive production is due to curtail. 10* Miami |
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03-12-22 | Texas Tech v. Kansas -1.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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03-11-22 | Wolves v. Magic +7 | Top | 110-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): Minnesota couldn’t possibly be any hotter than they are right now, having won and covered six straight. The last five wins have all been by double digits, three of them by 30 or more points! But this has caused the market to take notice and tonight the T’wolves are lofty road favorites, a position they are not too familiar with being in. Yes, they did recently destroy the Thunder in OKC as a similar sized road favorite (compared to tonight). But I think the T’wolves are due for an off-night here. Orlando just pulled an upset Weds night, going to New Orleans and defeating the Pelicans 108-102 as 8.5-point road dogs. It was the Magic’s fourth win in the last seven games, a solid stretch for them. They still have the worst SU record in the NBA (17-50) entering tonight, but they played the Suns (who have the best record in the NBA) tough the other night and have just one loss by more than eight points since returning from the All-Star Break. They are 8-2 ATS L10 games with a total of 230 or higher. Minnesota has simply been shooting the lights out of late and I don’t think they can continue to do so. They are basically averaging 130 points on better than 50% shooting during the six-game win streak and that cannot be maintained. Defensively, the T’wolves struggle on the road, giving up 116.8 PPG. That’s why they have a sub-.500 record away from home. A team with a losing road record should not be favored by this many points, no matter how well they’ve been playing. Take the points. 10* Orlando |
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03-11-22 | Akron v. Toledo -5.5 | Top | 70-62 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
9* Toledo (5:00 ET): The “chalk walked” into the MAC semifinals with the top four seeds all advancing. The first semi pits top seed Toledo against 4-seed Akron. Both of these teams won close yesterday afternoon. Toledo avoided what would have been a massive upset (they were -17 against Central Michigan) as RayJ Dennis made a layup with 10 seconds left to give the Rockets a 72-71 win. Akron won 70-68 over Buffalo as Greg Tribble made two free throws with 3.2 seconds left. Toledo dominated the MAC during the regular season, going 17-3 straight up and 16-4 against the spread. So it’s a bit surprising that they are such a short favorite here. The Rockets faced Akron just one time in the regular season and won that game 84-76 as a 7.5-point favorite.They shot 59% from the floor while the Zips did not help themselves by missing 10 free throws and shooting only 28% from three-point range. But note Toledo is 12-1 ATS this season vs. teams that have a winning record. Akron comes into this game on a six-game win streak (as does Toledo!) but the last two wins have been by a total of three points. For whatever reason, Central Michigan always seems to play Toledo tough. But the Rockets’ four previous wins had all come by double digits. Toledo is simply the better team here and KenPom has them as an 8.5-point favorite. There’s a major edge at the offensive end where the Rockets rank 35th in the country in efficiency while the Zips are 139th. Assuming UT can push the tempo, Akron won’t be able to keep up. Lay the points. 9* Toledo |
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03-11-22 | Cincinnati +12 v. Houston | Top | 56-69 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The first thing to consider here is that Cincy MUST win the Conference Tournament to make the NCAA Tournament while Houston is obviously a NCAA Tournament team that will get a pretty high seed. The Bearcats did play yesterday, and it certainly wasn’t as easy as the final 74-63 score showed against East Carolina. But after scoring the final 12 points of that game, I think they are going to surprise here and stay within the double digit number. Houston did not have a good end to the regular season as they got clobbered by Memphis, 75-61, a game where they were actually favored by 2.5 points. The Cougars turned the ball over a season-high 20 times in that game and trailed by as many as 23 points in the first half. Now that was just their fifth loss of the season and Memphis is the ONLY team to beat them by more than two points! But I can see a combination of the layoff and overconfidence leading to a poor start here for the favorite. Remember that due to injuries, Houston has a VERY short rotation (sometimes goes only six deep). Cincinnati did lose the two regular season meetings with Houston by a combined 40 points. But again, the perception that creates has led to some value for this tournament matchup. I certainly don’t think the Bearcats can play any worse than they did in either of the two regular season meetings. They made a season-high 10 three-pointers yesterday, a positive sign, and I think they will play “loose and free” here. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati |
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03-10-22 | Nets v. 76ers -4 | Top | 129-100 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): Does Brooklyn, currently in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, probably “need” this game more than Philadelphia (who is third)? Yeah. But don’t discount the motivations of James Harden tonight as he faces his former team. The 76ers are 5-0 in games with Harden in the lineup since the blockbuster trade with the Nets. They have averaged slightly more than 125 points in those five wins, four of which have come by at least 16 points. The Sixers are the better team here and I’ll lay the points. Harden sat out Philly’s 99-82 loss to Miami on Friday. But he returned to the lineup Monday as the team beat Chicago 121-106. It was actually Joel Embiid leading the way in that one, with 43 points. In the 128 minutes that Harden and Embiid have shared the court together so far, the Sixers have outscored opponents by 76 points, an incredible number! Also, the team’s defense has gotten much better, posting a defensive efficiency rating that would be better than the league-leading Celtics (when Harden and Embiid are together). The Nets are still more of a work in progress as Kyrie Irving’s “on again, off again,” status has been a problem (due to him not being vaccinated). I don’t think the team can count on him going for 50 points again like he did the other night vs. Charlotte (who is a bad defensive team). Durant continues to work his way back from injury. He and Irving simply haven’t played together enough over the L2 years and to me this remains an overrated side. The Nets are 2-11 ATS off a double digit win. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-10-22 | Tulsa v. Wichita State -6 | Top | 73-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
10* Wichita State (3:00 ET): Tulsa has been a bit of an unlucky team this season, but I don't think that's going to change here in the conference tournament. The Golden Hurricane did pull out a one-point victory in their regular season finale, beating UCF 73-72, but you’d have to go all the way back to mid-December to find the last time this team posted B2B wins. They finished second from the bottom in the American this year, ahead of only South Florida, and were swept by their first round opponent (Wichita State), losing both games by 10 points. Wichita State comes into this tournament off B2B wins. One of them was against Tulsa, 72-62, as a three-point road favorite. Then the Shockers closed the regular season by beating East Carolina 70-62. It was not a great season in Wichita, but the team still sits inside the Top 50 in defensive efficiency. They’ve won and covered five of the last six meetings with Tulsa and in the regular season sweep this year, held them to an average of just 55 PPG. Remember that Wichita State won the regular season AAC title last season. It’s been a tough fall this year, but they are clearly better than Tulsa and the rest of the bottom-feeders in this league. This line just looks way too short, given Tulsa has just two wins away from home all season. The only “true” road win was against USF while the other was a neutral site game vs. Rhode Island back in November. The Golden Hurricane are also 0-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. 10* Wichita State. |
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03-10-22 | Butler v. Providence -7.5 | Top | 61-65 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 28 m | Show |
8* Providence (12:00 ET): Surprise! Me taking the Friars may come as a shock to those who have followed my plays over the course of the season, but the situation is really in their favor in this Big East Quarterfinal matchup. Rested, they are taking on Butler, who went to overtime to upset Xavier yesterday. Let’s not forget Butler had lost five in a row going into yesterday. Providence has not lost to any Big East team besides Villanova going back to January 4th. I’m laying the points in this one. Now it’s been established that Providence has been arguably THE “luckiest” team in America this season. Their record in close games is stunning and Butler knows this VERY well as the Friars beat them by seven and one in the two regular season meetings, the latter going to OT after Providence rallied from 19 down in the 2H. But that’s water under the bridge now and we’ve got a superior team, rested, against someone coming off an OT game. Note Butler was down four in the last 30 seconds of regulation yesterday, so it was their “turn” to be lucky. Providence hasn’t played since losing (by two) at Villanova on March 1st. This means they should be fully healthy as HC Ed Cooley expects Al Durham to return after missing a month, including the second game vs. Butler. Durham is a double digit scorer, so that’s a key returnee. Butler just isn’t that good (14-18 SU) and not capable of playing any better than they did yesterday. Two players carried the scoring load, and I just can’t see Harris and Lukosius combining for 56 again. 8* Providence |
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03-09-22 | Bulls -6 v. Pistons | Top | 114-108 | Push | 0 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:10 ET): The Bulls have experienced a real “downturn” of late, losing and failing to cover each of the last five games. But most of those losses have come against some of the top teams in the NBA, like Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee and Philadelphia. The Bulls have had some real difficulty beating the top teams in the league, but one team they have not had trouble beating resides at the bottom, that being tonight’s opponent, the Pistons. The Bulls are 10-0 SU/ATS the past 10 meetings including 3-0 this season. Wouldn’t you know though that Detroit comes into Wednesday riding an 8-0 ATS win streak. They are 6-2 SU in those eight games as well. It’s easily the best stretch of basketball that the Pistons have played all season. Two nights ago, here at home, they defeated Atlanta in overtime by a score of 113-110. It was their third straight SU win, the first time they’ve managed a win streak of this length since March of 2019. So something is going to have to give here. It’s a matter of which trend(s) do you believe in? Recently, the Pistons have clearly been better than the Bulls. But, long-term, the Bulls have certainly had the Pistons’ number. I’m looking for the Bulls’ mastery of this rivalry to continue. They might be 0-9 SU this year against Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee - the three teams ahead of them in the East - but their record against the rest of the conference is 24-8 SU. The three wins over the Pistons have been by an average of 22.3 PPG. Nikola Vucevic (questionable) could return tonight. Regardless, the Bulls aren’t as bad as they’ve looked recently nor are the Pistons as good as they’ve looked recently. 10* Chicago |
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03-09-22 | West Virginia +1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 73-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Because Oklahoma State is ineligible for the postseason, this is the only first round game in the Big 12 Tournament and the winner gets the dubious “honor” of having to face Kansas tomorrow in the quarterfinals. So it’s basically “one last chance to shine” for either Kansas State or West Virginia, the two bottom teams in the conference standings. I’m on WVU here as they showed signs of “life” by winning the regular season finale, 70-64 over TCU. Kansas State, meanwhile, has lost five in a row. Now the Mountaineers had dropped seven in a row before beating TCU in Morgantown. But some of those losses were close, including one by just a single point to Texas. This team did start the season by winning 13 of its first 15 games. They have lost 14 of 16 with two separate seven-game skids, however, this is the one matchup they can win in this Tournament. Kansas State has been giving up a ton of points recently, more than their season average each of the last six times out. Making matters tougher for K-State is that one of their leading scorers, Markquis Nowell, has been battling a hamstring injury and is listed as questionable. Nowell led the team with 21 points when they beat WVU in Manhattan on Valentine’s Day. That’s the last time the Wildcats won a game. Note WVU took the first meeting in Morgantown. Kansas State didn’t turn the ball over too many times in the two regular season matchups, but Bob Huggins’ press could be the difference-maker here. 10* West Virginia |
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03-09-22 | Syracuse v. Florida State -1 | Top | 96-57 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
8* Florida State (12:00 ET): Today is the second round of the ACC Tournament. This is the only one of the four matchups where neither of the participants played yesterday. Florida State ended its regular season on a real roll, impressively beating Virginia, Notre Dame and NC State. Impressive is not a word that could be used to describe the way Syracuse finished its regular season as the Orange have lost four in a row straight up and failed to cover five in a row. I expect recent form to hold here and am taking FSU. This tournament is being played in Brooklyn. While that’s within the state boundary for Syracuse, they have just four wins all season outside of the Carrier Dome. This team is shockingly bad at the defensive end, having allowed over 75 PPG for the season. Among ACC teams, only NC State had a worse defensive efficiency rating and the Wolfpack finished in last place and are already out of the Tourney. Bottom line is that I have zero belief that the ‘Cuse can win a game outside of its own gym. FSU actually won at the Carrier Dome back in January 76-71 as a 2.5-point dog. They did so by shooting almost 55% overall and 60% from three-point range. That was after giving the Orange one of their few road wins this season, back in December. I just think that the ‘Noles come into the rubber match in better form. Syracuse blew an 18-point lead and lost at home to Miami on Saturday, which will be tough to get over. Both teams have thin benches, but the Orange are thinner at the moment. 8* Florida State |
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03-08-22 | Cavs v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 127-124 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:10 ET): Already without Caris LeVert and Rajon Rondo, Cleveland just lost All-Star Center Jarrett Allen to injury in Sunday’s 104-96 win over Toronto. One of the surprise teams in the league this year, the Cavs have started to slip, dropping six of their last eight and are now sixth in the Eastern Conference standings. There’s a chance Rondo could return Tuesday, but I certainly don’t like the idea of the Cavs laying points on the road right now, even facing a team like Indiana, who is coming off a rough road trip. While the Pacers essentially “waved the white flag” on their 2021-22 season at the trade deadline (including sending LeVert to Cleveland), they are better than their record. No team has been more snakebit in close games as Indiana’s SU record is just 2-11 in games decided by three points or less. But even after losing 11 of their last 14 overall, there’s some hope here with the starting backcourt of Brogdon and Haliburton playing together. Brogdon had 27 in Sunday’s loss to Washington while Haliburton has scored 20+ in six of the ten games since coming over from Sacramento. This will be the Pacers’ first time playing at home since blowing out Boston here on Feb 27th. Considering who they faced (Orlando twice, Detroit and Washington), the just completed road trip should have been better than 1-3 SU, but the bottom line is the Pacers are a far better team at home (where they actually own a positive point differential). Cleveland is basically a .500 team on the road (17-16 SU) and now playing short-handed. Take the points. 10* Indiana |
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03-08-22 | Wagner +4.5 v. Bryant | Top | 43-70 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
10* Wagner (7:00 ET): These were the top two teams in the NEC all year. In fact, Wagner didn’t even lose a conference game until February, after a 13-0 start. But they ended up losing three of the final five conference games and that resulted in a drop into second place by season’s end. The regular season title was actually decided on the final day when the Seahawks lost to Bryant, 78-70, after blowing a six-point halftime lead. That was also Wagner’s lone non-OT conference loss of the season! As a top-two seed, Wagner got a double-bye into the tournament semis and they promptly blew out Long Island 82-62 as a 5.5-point favorite. Now that game was at home and here they’ll have to play on the road by virtue of Bryant being the top seed. But Bryant certainly struggled here at home in their semifinal, only beating Mount St. Mary’s 70-69 as a 7.5-point favorite. That game was decided on a free throw with no time remaining. Judging by the respective shooting percentages, you would expect Bryant would have lost that game. But they had a huge edge (+19) in FT attempts compared to MSM. Wagner did win the season’s first meeting, 84-81, so there’s that. To me, they have been the better team this season. Bryant has been pretty lucky (#5 luck rating over at KenPom) and my power ratings say that even with the home court edge, they should be a dog here. Wagner has a much higher defensive efficiency rating and should be able to avenge its only regulation conference loss of the season here. They have won 26 of their last 31 NEC games. Take the points. 10* Wagner |
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03-07-22 | Oral Roberts +1.5 v. North Dakota State | Top | 72-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
10* Oral Roberts (9:30 ET): The “chalk has walked” in the bottom half of the Summit League bracket as 3-seed Oral Roberts will be meeting 2-seed North Dakota State in the second semifinal. Honestly, whoever wins this will be a huge underdog in the Final, presuming the opponent is South Dakota State, who hasn’t been beaten in conference play all year. But I’m seeing value in this one as I believe Oral Roberts to be the better team. Take the points. This is a double revenge spot for ORU, who lost the regular season meetings 72-71 and 77-59. In those two losses, the Eagles shot below 25% from three-point range. That’s very uncharacteristic for them. They are shooting 38.1% from behind the arc for the season and average 83.7 PPG, fourth most in the country. Last night in the quarterfinals, they put up 80 against Western Illinois, a game where they never trailed. North Dakota State has been a pretty lucky team this season, winning a lot of close games. It wasn’t close yesterday as the Bison rolled to an 82-62 victory over Denver, but even so they were down at halftime. I think that Oral Roberts is due for some positive regression at the defensive end and they’ve now covered seven straight games on a neutral court. I simply happen to think that the Eagles are the better team here and cannot see them losing a third straight time to NDSU. 10* Oral Roberts |
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03-07-22 | College of Charleston -1 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 57-60 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Charleston (8:30 ET): The 6-seed is favored over the 2-seed in the CAA Tournament, which should tell you something right off the bat. UNC Wilmington (the 2-seed) has been one of the luckiest teams in America this season, going 12-3 SU in games decided by six or less or in overtime. They are 4-0 in OT games. There have been nine instances this season where the Seahawks trailed in a game by double digits, but came back to win. They’ve trailed in 14 of their 22 wins this season, including yesterday’s quarterfinal victory over Elon. Now, given UNCW ended up winning 75-58, you may not realize they were down at halftime on Sunday. But Elon could muster only 22 points in the 2H and their leading scorer was held to four points on 2 of 11 shooting. Tonight’s opponent has had no such issues scoring as Charleston comes in hot, having shot better than 51% in each of its last six games. The Cougars put up 92 last night in their quarterfinal win over Hofstra, who was the 3-seed. I made the mistake of playing the Under in that Charleston-Hofstra game and learned my lesson about what the Cougars can do. They are second in the country in tempo and averaging 78.9 PPG. This is a double revenge spot for them as they lost both regular season meetings to UNC Wilmington. But the set up here is a bit different as both regular season meetings saw Charleston come in off a seven-day break. Maybe that was too much rest? Charleston led by 22 at the half last night. This is a hot team and UNCW is a team due to lose. 8* Charleston |
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03-07-22 | Blazers +15 v. Wolves | Top | 81-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:10 ET): Let’s try this again as we should have had a win Saturday with the Blazers getting a similar number of points, but they fell apart late and ended up either not covering or pushing, depending on when you bet them. Portland was severely short-handed for the contest, but was leading at the half and only down one with 8:41 left. To not cover, as a double-digit underdog, was a really bad break. Now Minnesota has been red hot, winning and covering four straight. They’ve averaged 132.3 PPG during that win streak, which has seen them shoot 52.8% or better in every game. But they are due to cool off, especially after shooting a season-best 56.5% in the last game. That came on the second night of a back to back, after they had made 22 of 47 three-pointers and turned in their highest scoring half of the season. There’s just no way those numbers are sustainable. So with the T’wolves likely to cool off, look for Portland to take advantage and stay within the number this time. Before Saturday, the Blazers had lost three in a row by 30+ points, so as disappointing as that last result was, it marked an improvement. As beat up as they are, I just can’t see a fifth straight double digit loss here. The first two meetings vs. Minnesota this year were decided by a total of seven points. 10* Portland |
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03-06-22 | Nebraska +12.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): Gonna try again to fade Wisconsin, who remains one of the more overrated (and certainly LUCKIEST) teams in the country. The Badgers come into this regular season finale ranked #10 in the country, however both KenPom (#26) and my own personal power ratings (#27) look at them a lot less favorably. The key to the overachieving in Madison has been a preposterous record in close games; the Badgers are 15-1 SU when the final margin is six points or less. Four of their last five wins have been by five points or less, the last three coming by a total of nine points. A win here would give the Badgers the Big 10 regular season title. (They can also clinch if Illinois loses later today). What’s crazy about Wisconsin being the probable #1 seed in the conference tournament is that my power rankings consider them to be just the SIXTH best team in the Big 10! At the bottom of the league is Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers aren’t going down without a fight. The last two games have seen them pull off an upset, beating Penn State by 23 and then Ohio State by eight. The ‘Huskers were DD dogs in both games. Back on January 27th, Nebraska was able to cover the spread (at home) vs. Wisconsin, losing by only eight as nine-point dogs. They are also 3-0 ATS this season as a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS this season when laying 12.5 or more at the betting window, home or road. Just take the points here as when Wisconsin is involved, it’s almost always a close contest. 10* Nebraska |
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03-05-22 | Blazers +14 v. Wolves | Top | 121-135 | Push | 0 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:10 ET): The Blazers are in a terrible way right now, but this is a good spot for them to ambush the T’wolves, who are playing the second night of a back to back. Minnesota obviously looked quite impressive last night, easily dispatching OKC, 138-101 as a 9.5-point road favorite. But there, it was the T’wolves in the advantageous situation as the Thunder were coming off a shock 119-107 win as double digit underdogs. Minnesota is rarely a favorite of this size, so I will play accordingly. Portland certainly cannot play any worse than it has each of the L3 games where they’ve lost by 30+ points each time out! That is insane. I know that they are short-handed and the roster was reshuffled at the trade deadline, but the team should not be THIS bad. Note those three losses came to Phoenix, Golden State and Denver, all of whom are firmly established in the top six in the West and the Suns and Warriors are the top two teams in the NBA. Minnesota is NOT at that level. Before the All-Star Break, the Blazers were on a four-game win streak (season best) which included wins over Milwaukee and Memphis. There is simply no way Minnesota can match what they did last night when they made 22 of 47 three-pointers and had their highest-scoring half of the season. Six players scored at least 15 points. Can you say “letdown spot?” These teams have faced off twice previous to this and while Portland lost both, the games were decided by a total of seven points. This is a great sell-high (Minnesota)/buy low (Portland) spot. 8* Portland |
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03-05-22 | Iowa State +12.5 v. Baylor | Top | 68-75 | Win | 100 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
9* Iowa State (6:00 ET): Coming full circle on Iowa State, who was 12-0 SU and ranked as high as #8 (in the country!) at that time. I was adamant the Cyclones, who finished 0-18 SU in Big 12 play last season, were not as good as their record/ranking. Sure enough, they’ve slipped considerably and come into their regular season finale vs. Baylor at 20-10 SU overall. At least they’ve been much more competitive in conference play this season, going 7-10 SU. That said, it was a horrible showing earlier this week at OK State (lost 53-36) and the Cyclones BADLY need an inspired showing here in Waco to seize some momentum for the Big XII Tournament. Baylor has no issues right now. They are ranked #3 in the country and coming off huge wins over Kansas and Texas. They need a win here and Kansas to lose to Texas to win the Big 12 regular season championship outright. Regardless, a likely #1 seed awaits in the NCAA Tournament. But coming off such high profile wins, and laying a big number here, it’s a good spot to fade the Bears as Iowa State is the team in more desperate need of a good showing. The Cyclones are off their lowest scoring game since 1948 as they shot a season-worst 28.3% from the field. They were just 2 of 17 from three-point range and scored only 16 points in the 2H. Tonight is a revenge game as Baylor handed the ‘Clones their first SU loss of the season, back on New Year’s Day, by a single point. ISU has covered 16 of the last 19 times it has been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. They can’t shoot any worse than they did Wednesday and have already shown they can compete with Baylor. Take the points. 9* Iowa State |
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03-05-22 | Brentford v. Norwich City | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 52 m | Show |
10* Brentford (10:00 AM ET) - Playing this one a little “safe” in that I’m taking Brentford as a “Draw No Bet” wager, which means a draw is a push instead of a loss in this scenario (different from playing the 3-way line). Make no mistake about it though, I expect Brentford to win here and get the full three points. The Bees are arguably the most underperforming side in the Premier League as they are actually 9th in xPts and have a xGD of just -3.69. The fact this newly promoted side is actually 15th in the table with a -17 GD is terribly unfortunate. I think, at this price, we are getting them in the ultimate “buy low” spot. Norwich City, who was also promoted to the top flight before the start of this campaign, is easily the worst team in the Premier League. They have a -40 GD and are at the foot of the table (i.e. in last place), looking like a lock to be relegated down to the Championship for next season. The misery continued midweek as the Canaries fell 2-1 to Liverpool in the fifth round of the FA Cup, thus eliminating them from that particular competition. It’s now four straight losses across all competitions for Norwich, who we just successfully faded last Friday against Southampton. They’ve been outscored 11-2 during the skid. Brentford is actually on an even worse run right now, having come up winless nine straight times. They’ve shipped multiple goals eight times during that stretch, but shouldn’t be overly concerned about conceding here as Norwich has scored only nine goals on home soil all season (fewest in EPL). This is a revenge spot for the Bees as they lost the reverse fixture 2-1 back in November. Brentford won both the xG and possession battle in that first meeting; I simply cannot see them being swept by the basement side. Unlike the other two promoted sides (Watford, Norwich), I can’t see Brentford falling into the relegation zone, so this is a critical three points they need to pick up. I believe they will. 10* Brentford (Draw = No Bet) |
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03-04-22 | Cavs v. 76ers -7 | Top | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Am I falling prey to “recency bias” here? I don’t think so. The 76ers have won four in a row, while averaging 126 PPG, the last three coming with new arrival James Harden in the lineup and those wins have all been by 15 points or greater. Harden has been great so far with 82 points, 27 rebounds and 37 assists. Now the Sixers have faced the Knicks twice and Minnesota. But the Cleveland team they host tonight seems to be heading in reverse and a surprising first half of the season. I’ll lay the points in this one. Not only are the oddsmakers seemingly catching up the Cavaliers, apparently so is the rest of the NBA. Over the L6 games, the Cavs are 0-6 ATS and 1-5 straight up. The streak began with a loss to Philly, pre-Harden. Now it may seem as if I’m being unfair to Cleveland as injuries have taken their toll. But with Caris Levert and Rajon Rondo again expected to be out for tonight’s game, this team is at a disadvantage. They were blown out at home by Charlotte, 119-98, on Wednesday. With Harden and Joel Embiid, the Sixers are now a legit threat to take over the East. It’s odd to see the Sixers have a better record on the road, considering last year they were MUCH stronger here in the City of Brotherly Love. Defensively, they are allowing just 105.5 PPG at home this season and Cleveland has failed to even score 100 in three of its last six games. Look for the Sixers to continue rolling with Harden and move closer to the top of the Eastern Conference standings. 10* Philadelphia |
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03-03-22 | Grizzlies v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:40 ET): Two of the hottest teams in the NBA square off tonight in Beantown. Memphis is third in the West with a 43-20 record and has won 24 of its last 30 games. Not to be outdone, Boston has won 12 of 14. Though they are currently just sixth in the Eastern Conference, the Celtics actually have the best YTD point differential in the East and I think they are a lock to move up the standings. Even with Jaylen Brown ruled out tonight, I believe the home team should be favored in this one. Now stopping the Grizzlies’ Ja Morant is a challenge for any team. Morant has scored 98 points in the last two games, setting a new franchise record twice. He scored 46 vs. Chicago, then 52 vs. San Antonio (on 22 of 30 shooting!). But I believe Boston, one of the top defensive teams in the league, is uniquely suited to slow down Morant. This is the #2 team in defensive efficiency for the season and they are #1 over the last month or so. Their only two losses over the last month both came in the second night of a back to back. The Celtics probably needed yesterday off after rallying back from 17 down to defeat Atlanta. I can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again here. I have a ton of respect for Memphis, but think they will fall to the 4-seed by season’s end (Utah is better). Morant is probably due for an “off game” as well. As a team, the Grizzlies shot the lights out vs. San Antonio on Monday and also held the Spurs to 28% from three-point range. They can’t count on that kind of disparity here against a better team. 8* Boston |
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03-03-22 | Bulls v. Hawks +2.5 | Top | 124-130 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:10 ET): These teams met right after the All-Star Break with Chicago winning 112-108. Fortunately, I bet Atlanta early enough in the day that I still cashed plus the points. Since that win, the Bulls have lost two in a row, falling to Memphis (116-110) and Miami (112-99). I’m on the record as saying I think the Bulls are likely to slip a bit in the Eastern Conference standings, where they are currently second despite having the sixth best point differential. Once again, I’ll be taking the points with Atlanta. The Hawks rebounded from that last loss to the Bulls by beating the Raptors 127-120. Unfortunately, then they blew a 17-point lead against the Celtics and ended up losing 107-98. Now getting up 17 on a team that’s been as hot as Boston is an achievement. But the Hawks really shot themselves in the foot with poor shot selection down the stretch. Expect better shot selection here tonight and it should be mentioned how the Hawks are much better at home (where they are 18-13 SU on the season). This is a big revenge game for Atlanta. Not only did they lose last week in Chicago, but they are 0-3 SU against the Bulls in 2021-22. The Hawks are not only revenge-minded, but more desperate than the Bulls because they are only 10th in the Eastern Conference and just one game away from not making the playoffs at all. I do think they will move up, but with Kevin Durant set to return for Brooklyn, it’s going to be tough to move up very far. The Bulls have struggled defensively ever since losing Ball and Caruso. Trae Young had only 14 points in the last meeting. He’s scored 72 in the two games since. 10* Atlanta |
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03-03-22 | Kennesaw State +8 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 67-78 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Kennesaw State (7:00 ET): Kennesaw State has been incredibly unlucky this season, finishing fourth in the A-Sun East Division despite being tied for the fifth highest rating (in the conference) over at KenPom. I think the Owls can give Western Division Champ Jacksonville State a real scare here in the quarterfinals, even though they are at the disadvantage of having had to play a game to get here. On Monday, the Owls defeated Eastern Kentucky 82-73 and covered the 3.5-point spread. This game is at Jacksonville State as the higher seed gets to host all games in the A-Sun Tourney. Jacksonville State certainly ended the regular season well, posting four straight wins and covers. All four wins were by double digits. But now could be a good chance to “sell high” on the Gamecocks, who are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 9 points this season. It was only a six-point game when they won at Kennesaw State back in January. Kennesaw is 5-1 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a home loss. Also, while Kennesaw is just 2-4 SU over its last six games, they have been remarkably competitive. The four losses have either been by less than six points or in overtime. The Owls really should have a better record and this is a game with some serious upset potential. The underdog has outscored its opponents over the course of this season, which further illustrates how unlucky they have been. Eventually, a team’s luck WILL turn and I give the dog an excellent shot at pulling off the outright win here. 8* Kennesaw State |
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03-03-22 | Oakland +4.5 v. Wright State | Top | 63-75 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
8* Oakland (7:00 ET): I’ve got the Golden Grizzlies rated as the better team here, so I’m surprised the line has moved this way. Oakland did need a win to make the quarterfinals while Wright State had a bye. But that disadvantage is mitigated by yesterday being an off-day. And it’s not like Oakland was really tested on Tuesday. They won rather easily, 69-58 over a terrible IUPUI team, and while they did not cover, take note that the spread was pretty massive (-23.5). I’m taking the better team and the points here. The reason Oakland failed to cover Tuesday was that they were just 8 of 27 from three-point range while IUPUI was 9 of 15. Still being able to win by double digits, while being on the wrong end of that kind of three-point percentage disparity, is pretty impressive. Now, as was already stated, IUPUI is a terrible team (maybe the worst in the country). But I’ve got Oakland rated as the top team in the Horizon, even though they finished fifth! Yes, you’ve got to factor the home court edge for Wright State into this line. But I don’t think that’s enough for Wright State to be favored by this many. Oakland has double revenge from the regular season, losing the two meetings by 4 and 11. Both were one-point games at half. I think it speaks volumes that in the regular season finale, Oakland was a favorite over regular season champ Cleveland State and won rather easily. They’ve struggled at the betting window much of the season, but this is a rare time they are underdogs. Wright State does not defend the three-point line well and I don’t think they’ll outrebound Oakland the same way they did in the two regular season matchups. Trust me on this one. Oakland is the better team! 8* Oakland |
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03-02-22 | Thunder +14.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (9:10 ET): The Thunder have obviously struggled to win games this season, but only Memphis has a better ATS record, OKC has covered at a 64.4% rate this season. That said, they did lose by 21 at home to Sacramento on Monday night. You’ve got to think we’re getting a bounce back effort from the Thunder tonight and I will take the big number. The Thunder have played Denver tough in the two previous meetings, both of which were played in OKC. They won outright (by 14!) in the first one, then only lost the rematch by four points. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is back in the lineup now and he has scored 30 or more in all three games since returning. I just think this is a good time to “sell high” on Denver, who is a season-best 11 games over .500 and coming off a 32-point win over Portland. The Nuggets are still without some key players. Looking at the Nuggets’ current six-game win streak, only twice have they prevailed by more than 10 and twice they won by only a single point. 10* Oklahoma City |
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03-02-22 | LSU +6 v. Arkansas | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
10* LSU (9:00 ET): This is a big one for LSU, who I consider a Top 20 team in America, but they are just 8th in the SEC with an 8-8 SU record. To me, the Tigers should be up there competing with the top four for a conference championship. Tonight they face an Arkansas team that is up in that top four and whose only loss in the last two months was by a single point at Alabama. The Razorbacks are 9-0-1 ATS their L10 games as they pushed as two-point favorites over Kentucky this past weekend. I have the underdog rated as the better team here, so this is too many points and I’ll gladly take them. LSU has won four of six, but both losses were by a total of seven points and one was at Kentucky. The Tigers certainly remember losing as 6.5-point favorites to Arkansas back in Baton Rouge last month. Now it's payback time. This is a tough spot for the Hogs, coming off the win over UK. They also have Tennessee on deck. Tonight marks just the sixth time that LSU is an underdog this season. They are #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. 10* LSU |
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03-02-22 | Knicks +10.5 v. 76ers | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
8* New York (7:40 ET): The Knicks are going for immediate revenge here as they lost to the Sixers, at home, 125-109 on Sunday. The team, which made the playoffs last year, has now failed to cover the spread in 9 of its last 10 games and finds itself on the outside of the playoffs, four games back of the Hawks. It’s now or never for NY if they are to make a playoff push. Though tonight’s rematch is on the road, I don’t see the Knicks getting blown out. I’m taking the points. The Sixers have won three in a row, all on the road. But they are also 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days. This will be the Sixers’ first home game since 2/15 when they were absolutely humiliated (losing by 48) to Boston. Here, all we are needing is the underdog to stay within single digits. The Sixers are winning by an average of just two points per game at home this season. They are third in the Eastern Conference coming into tonight, but my power ratings consider them the fifth best team. Note that on Sunday, it was only a two-point game entering the 4Q. 8* New York |
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03-02-22 | Charleston Southern v. North Carolina-Asheville -10 | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 48 m | Show |
8* UNC Asheville (2:00 ET): UNC Asheville will look to make it a season sweep over Charleston Southern this afternoon. The two regular season meetings weren’t even close with the Bulldogs winning by 23 at home and 19 on the road. Going back, they’ve beaten Charleston Southern all six times over the L3 seasons. This will be the first time, during that stretch, that the teams are meeting in the Big South Tournament. I expect the favorite to roll here. Charleston Southern, who is seeded last in this Tourney, has just one win in its last 12 games and it came over a non-DI foe (Toccoa Falls). Since then, it’s been six straight losses, most of them by double digits. The Buccaneers’ one and only Big South victory this season took place at home, against High Point, and it was by just four points. This is a bad basketball team, folks. UNC Asheville was taken to triple overtime in its regular season finale, but did end up beating Presbyterian 98-96. That was a well-earned victory after dropping the previous two games by a total of six points. Now note the number of points that Charleston Southern allowed in its regular season finale (92) and that was just in regulation. UNC Asheville is 10-3 ATS L13 after allowing 80+ points while Charleston Southern is 2-9 ATS its L11 in that same situation. Lay the points. 8* UNC Asheville |
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03-01-22 | Mavs v. Lakers +6 | Top | 109-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:00 ET): It’s getting to be desperate times for these Lakers, who are six games below .500 and just got their doors blown off, 123-95, at home by New Orleans on Sunday. Certainly, the best Laker fans can hope for is making the play-in round for a second straight year, which does not match the preseason expectations for this club. LeBron James has not endeared himself to management with recent comments about a possible second return to Cleveland. The team was soundly booed off the court after getting blown out by the Pelicans. But I think this is a solid “buy low” spot on the Lakers. It’s a national TV game, at home, and they aren’t going to want to be blown out yet again. They’re facing a Dallas team that I took on Sunday and it ended up being a very fortunate outright winner as the Mavs came back from 21 down to stun the Warriors 107-101 as a 3.5-point underdog. I’ll take the win, but it’s almost as if Golden State “fell asleep at the wheel,” scoring just 13 points in the 4Q and shooting 28.2% from three-point range for the game. As I said in my analysis, the Warriors were short-handed for that game (no Thompson or Green). The Lakers won’t have Anthony Davis, but they do have LeBron James and are getting points at home. The Mavericks are wrapping up a five-game road trip here and have a rematch with the Warriors (in Dallas) on deck. I feel that this game is way more important to the home team and thus taking the points is the best option here. The Lakers are 9-2 ATS this season after scoring 100 pts or less the previous game. 8* LA Lakers |
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03-01-22 | American v. Holy Cross -2 | Top | 69-63 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
8* Holy Cross (7:00 ET): Though they dropped BOTH regular season meetings to American U, I absolutely LOVE the situation here for Holy Cross, who is getting this 1st round Patriot League tournament matchup at home due to still finishing with a better conference record. American U has just five conference wins this year and finished in the basement of the Patriot League. In addition to two of the wins coming at HC’s expense, the Eagles won their final regular season game, 65-55 over Loyola MD. The fact that American won their last game only enhances my desire to fade them here. The Eagles have not won two straight conference games all season. They also have just three road wins. One of those obviously came here, but that was a game where Holy Cross turned in a putrid offensive effort in the 1H, scoring just 14 points. I think it’s fair to say that won’t be repeated tonight. The idea that American U would sweep three games against the same opponent just seems unlikely to me. Holy Cross actually has more than just double revenge coming into this one, they’ve actually lost the L6 head to head meetings. While you might then argue that history is NOT on the side of the home favorite here, I would beg to differ as American U has not won B2B games at any point since Dec 8-11. I find it quite hard to believe the Eagles could beat the same team on the road twice in the same season. After an ATS win this season, American has gone 2-11 SU and been outscored by 10.9 PPG. 8* Holy Cross |
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03-01-22 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan -4.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): I like the value we’re getting here. Eastern Michigan was a 2.5-point favorite when it won at Kalamazoo back on January 4th. The final score of that game was 85-79 and the Eagles never trailed and led by 17 at the half. Now not a ton has gone right for EMU since winning that conference opener. They come into their final regular season home game having dropped 12 of 15 and have failed to cover each of the last four games. But this is a VERY winnable contest where they are laying a short number to the worst team in the MAC. I’m laying the points. Western Michigan had zero conference wins entering Feb 12, but have shockingly won three of their last five, including a 78-67 upset at Bowling Green (were 8.5 point underdogs) on Saturday. That win snapped a 13-game road losing streak for the Broncos, so the idea of them winning AGAIN on the road seems far-fetched. Here’s the other thing; only the top eight teams in the MAC qualify for the conference tournament and WMU has already been eliminated from contention. So they’ve got NOTHING to play for these L2 games. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan can still find its way into the Conference Tourney by winning its last two games. So their motivation is high here. I know the Eagles have struggled to cover the spread recently (1-7 ATS L8), but again, this seems like a REALLY solid value at home against the worst team in the MAC. EMU should have no problem scoring on a team that gives up nearly 80 PPG on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (10:00 ET): The upcoming Mountain West Tournament figures to be a real “dogfight” with the likes of Boise State, Wyoming, San Diego State and Colorado State considered the favorites. But don’t discount this Fresno State team as a possible darkhorse. I realize that the Bulldogs are just 7-7 SU in conference play, but this is a team that ranks #3 in the COUNTRY in scoring defense, giving up just 57.4 PPG. Here at home, that number drops to a paltry 55.7 PPG! New Mexico is a team we last checked on last weekend. They traveled to face last place San Jose State, who was still winless in conference play, and promptly lost 71-55 as 5.5-point chalk. I was obviously very glad to have faded the Lobos in that spot. Two days later, they lost again, badly, this time as 12-point underdogs (81-56 to Utah State). Saturday saw them snap their losing streak with a four-point win over Air Force, but they did not cover the eight-point spread. Note that New Mexico has just one SU win this year in conference play against someone other than Air Force and San Jose State, who are the bottom two teams. Back on Jan 25, FSU won the first meeting of these teams, 65-60 in Albuquerque. New Mexico is much weaker away from home where it is 2-10 SU and giving up 81.5 PPG. Given Fresno State’s defensive numbers (see above), this has the potential to turn into a real blowout. The Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven games against teams with losing records and with their regular season ending with games at San Diego State and Wyoming, a win here is a must. They won by 25 at Air Force last Tuesday and haven’t played since. So the schedule sets up quite nicely for them to dominate on Monday. 10* Fresno State |
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02-28-22 | Alcorn State v. Texas Southern -5.5 | Top | 75-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Given the fact Texas Southern was a 2.5-point favorite for the first meeting with Alcorn State (and that was on the road), it would seem as if we’re getting a bit of a “discount” on the Tigers here at home Monday night. Now, the fact TX Southern lost that first meeting, 73-72, obviously had to be accounted for by the oddsmakers. But my power ratings say that they should be double digit favorites in this one. They’ve won 9 of their last 10 games overall! This game will go a long way in determining the winner of the SWAC’s West Division. Currently, despite losing the first head to head meeting, TX Southern has a half-game edge on Alcorn State. But Alcorn State’s final two games are against the two last place teams in the conference and at home. Figuring they’ll win those, the Braves are in control of their own destiny as far as the division race is concerned. But if TX Southern were to win here and then Saturday vs. Prairie View A&M, they’d win the division based on a better overall WL record. This is Alcorn State’s second road game in three days. They upset PV A&M on Saturday, winning 72-69 as a 2.5-point dog. It was the Braves’ fourth consecutive road win and they really benefited from the opponent going 4 of 17 from three-point range. Alcorn’s last two victories have been by a total of four points. As for TX Southern, I’ve got them as the favorites to win the SWAC Tournament. They shot an impressive 55% against Jackson State on Saturday (third straight game over 50%) and are winning by an average of almost 15 PPG at home this season. Alcorn State shoot just 40.3% on the road, averaging 63.9 PPG. 8* Texas Southern |
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02-28-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Chicago (7:40 ET): This is a huge game for the Bulls. Not just because they are a game back of the Eastern Conference lead, but they are also 0-2 vs. the Heat in the 2021-22 season. Those losses were by three in Chicago and 26 here in Miami and both came before Christmas. The Bulls had won six in a row going into Saturday’s game with Memphis, where they ended up losing by six. As the underdog, I like them plus the points here on Monday. Miami is coming off its highest scoring game since Opening Night. They defeated San Antonio 133-129 on Saturday to improve to 2-0 since the All-Star Break. I find it very difficult to believe that the Heat can match its shooting from the other night as they made 56.6% from the field against the Spurs. It should be noted that the team is 1-6 straight up the last three seasons when coming off a game where they scored 130 or more points. The Heat may be 8-1 SU over their L9 games, but they have also failed to cover the number in four of the last five. Chicago, who has yet to have a losing month all season, is desperate for a “marquee” win this season. Including the 0-2 record vs. Miami, the Bulls are just 1-10 SU against teams with a win percentage of .600 or better. Despite injuries, they continue to lean on DeMar DeRozan, who has 10 straight games with 30+ points. Perhaps even more impressive is the fact DeRozan has shot 50% or better from the field in 8 of those 10 games. He and his teammates will shoot better tonight than they did vs. Memphis. The Bulls are 19-4 ATS this season off a non-conference game. 10* Chicago |
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02-27-22 | Mavs +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 107-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
8* Dallas (7:40 ET): The Mavs let one slip away Friday against the Jazz. They were up seven at halftime after shooting 56% from the field and making 10 three-pointers. But the offense went cold in the 2H (just 48 points) and they went down 114-109 as 6.5-point underdogs. That result leaves them now tied with Denver for fifth place in the Western Conference. Things get no easier on Sunday night as the Mavs stay on the road to face Golden State. But the Warriors are not at full strength right now and this is a game the road team can steal. Take the points. The Warriors are second in the West, six games back of the Suns. I do expect that gap to shrink over the course of the next couple months, but for right now the Dubs are still without Draymond Green and Klay Thompson is questionable for tonight. They were dominant on Thursday, winning by 37 in Portland, but the Mavs are a far better team than the Blazers. Golden State actually went into the All-Star Break on an 0-7 ATS slide at the betting window while Dallas is 7-1 ATS its last eight games. The irony of Dallas’ defensive breakdown Friday night is that they are one of the league’s top defensive teams. They allow just 103.5 PPG (tied for 2nd in the league) and play at the slowest pace in the league. Controlling the tempo will go a long way here in limiting the Warriors offensively. In two previous meetings, Dallas has held Steph Curry to 3 of 19 shooting from three-point range. I expect this to be a close game where having points in our “back pocket” will be huge. 8* Dallas |
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02-27-22 | Jazz -1 v. Suns | Top | 118-114 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
10* Utah (3:40 ET): With Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both back in the fold, the Jazz are beginning to resemble the team that was quite dominant in the early part of the season (began 26-9 SU). They’ve slipped to fourth in the West, but I think Utah is a lot closer to the top two (Phoenix, Golden State) than most realize and they are better than third place Memphis. Coming from behind to defeat Dallas on Friday was a solid start to the second half of the season and I think the Jazz are prepared to make a definitive “statement” this afternoon on national TV against Phoenix. There’s been some substantial line movement for this game as the Suns are going to be without Chris Paul and Cameron Payne. This puts the home team at a significant disadvantage for a matchup that would have been pretty even, if they were at full strength. I faded the Suns on Friday when they lost outright at home to New Orleans, 117-102, as a 6.5-point favorite. You could see the effect of not having Paul on the floor as the offense grew stagnant. Also, historically, the Suns’ turnover rate goes way up when not having Paul in the lineup. This is a double revenge game for Utah, who lost twice to Phoenix last month, by six and eight points. The games were played in a three-day span and the Jazz were without Mitchell and Gobert for both games. Mike Conley also missed the second meeting. Yet Utah was actually ahead in the 4Q of that game, despite being without three All Stars. Now it’s Phoenix playing with a depleted roster. While the Suns must still be respected, I’m expecting a bit of a second-half decline from them while the Jazz should surge into the top three in the Western Conference. Love this spot for the Jazz. 10* Utah |
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02-27-22 | Monmouth -2 v. Siena | Top | 59-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
10* Monmouth (2:00 ET): These MAAC rivals are playing for the second time in three games with Monmouth going for the season sweep. Unfortunately for the Hawks, in between these two meetings with Siena, they lost outright (as a four-point favorite) to St. Peter’s, 70-65. Meanwhile, Siena bounced back with a 78-71 win at Quinnipiac where they were 2.5-point dogs. The Saints have been among the luckiest teams in the country this season and are not even in the top 250 of my power ratings! It is rather shocking to see them tied for second in the conference coming into the final week of the regular season. Monmouth could overtake Siena for second with a win here. It would give them the season-sweep and thus the tiebreak. St. Peter’s is also a game ahead of Monmouth and the Hawks were swept by them. But it’s a very favorable last few games here for Monmouth as they should be favored to win out. The Hawks have been absolute beasts on the road this year, going 13-2 ATS, including 4-0 when laying three points or fewer. When they beat Siena last month, they held them to just 19 points in the first half! As I mentioned the last time I faded them, first half scoring has been an issue for Siena all season. They average 30.1 PPG in the 1H! Since that last time I faded Siena (a winner as they lost outright here at home to Marist), they’ve won two of three. But this is still a team that I feel is very lucky to even have a winning record this season. They rank 272nd in the country in offensive efficiency and 201st defensively. It is very telling that the oddsmakers have them as underdogs at home for today’s game. Iona is clearly the best MAAC team this season, but I have Monmouth #2 and Siena down at #7 in my own power ratings. Lay the short number here. 10* Monmouth |
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02-26-22 | USC v. Oregon -4 | Top | 70-69 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
10* Oregon (10:00 ET): #16 USC has been living dangerously of late, winning its last two games by a total of five points. I played against the Trojans in both games, neither of which they covered. In fact, this team is now 2-6-1 ATS its last nine games. They won in the final second over Washington State last Sunday, 62-60 (as seven-point chalk) after trailing most of the way. Thursday’s win at Oregon State required double overtime. That was against the last place team in the Pac 12. Now, for the first time since their last loss, USC finds itself playing a second straight road game. Oregon picked up a huge win on Thursday, beating #12 UCLA 68-63 here in Eugene. Can the Ducks now make it a “SoCal double” against two of the league’s three ranked teams? I think so! Oregon has now swept UCLA and can do the same here to USC after besting the Trojans 79-69 as six-point underdogs in LA last month. Firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble, a win tonight would do wonders for the Ducks’ resume. And they are favored! Last month, they were up 16 on USC at the half. This is a team that began the year ranked in the Top 15. USC has two key players - Boogie Ellis and Isaiah White - listed as questionable for tonight. So their depth will be tested on the road. I simply do not think the Trojans are as good as their ranking. They’ve been very lucky this season to go 8-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. The line for this game “tells the story.” 10* Oregon |
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02-26-22 | Kings +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 110-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (9:10 ET): These teams are meeting for the second time in three days. While Denver ended up “running away” with a 128-110 victory on Thursday, its second double digit win over Sacramento this season, the game was actually much closer most of the way. The Kings’ deficit was only five points entering the 4Q and that’s despite poor shooting from three-point range (ended up 9 of 29). I anticipate the Kings will shoot better tonight and thus taking the points is the move here. Now is also probably a great time to fade the Nuggets as they are a season-best nine games above .500. The goal for them is obviously to finish in the top six of the Western Conference, which they probably will, but this is a lot of points to lay for a team that has twice won by a single point during its current four-game win streak. The Nuggets also shot 55.8% from the floor on Thursday, which I cannot seem them duplicating tonight. They are just 15-20 ATS as a favorite in 2021-22. The Kings radically changed their roster at the trade deadline as they are desperate to end the league’s longest playoff drought (2006). Entering Saturday, they are 3.5 games out of the final play-in spot as they’ve dropped three in a row going back to before the All-Star Break. It feels like this five-game road trip is going to be a “tipping point” either way for their season. I just don’t seem them losing big again, and honestly an outright win seems more likely in this situation. They are 5-1 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. 10* Sacramento |
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02-26-22 | Creighton +5 v. Providence | Top | 51-72 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
8* Creighton (8:30 ET): You know the drill with this Providence team. The Friars’ incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. After coming back from a 19-point deficit (in the second half!) to beat Butler last Sunday, Providence won in triple overtime against Xavier on Wednesday. Three of their last four wins have required OT and they are also 10-1 SU this season in games decided by five points or less. KenPom, appropriately, has the Friars rated as the “luckiest” team in America and my own power rankings have them as just the SIXTH best team in the Big East. I will continue fading! Providence obviously deserves to be ranked (they are 23-3 SU), but if you think this is one of the Top 11 teams in America, then I’ve got a “bridge in Topeka” you might be interested in buying! They are not even in the Top 40 of my power rankings. Five of their last seven wins have been by four points or less and that DOESN’T even include the 3OT game! I simply refuse to believe this run of good fortune can continue. Creighton comes in looking to play “spoiler” here. The Bluejays have won six in a row, three of them by three points or less, so they know “a thing or two” about close wins as well. Somewhat appropriately, the two Creighton-Providence meetings last year were decided by a total of six points (road team went 2-0). I am aware that PG Nembhard fractured his wrist against St. John’s and his season is done. But another freshman has returned (Kaluma). Creighton is a hot team and, again, this is all about fading Providence. Take the points. 8* Creighton |
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02-26-22 | Raptors v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:40 ET): This is a TERRIBLE spot for Toronto, who just got wiped out last night in Charlotte. It was a 32-point loss at Charlotte in the Raptors’ first game after the All-Star Break. While they were a hot team prior to the Break, winning 9 of 11, we saw none of that last night as the Raptors trailed by as many as 41 points in the 3Q! Pascal Siakam played, despite flu-like symptoms, and shot just 3 of 13 from the field. The Raptors were outrebounded badly and let the Hornets shoot 55% overall. Atlanta lost a close on Thursday, 112-108 in Chicago. They fell victim to DeMar DeRozan as a lot of teams have this month. The Bulls scored the game’s final seven points. The Hawks ended up being a bit short-handed as De’Andre Hunter missed the 2H because of illness, Lou Williams played just 12 minutes and John Collins and Gorgui Deng were both out. Yet the Hawks were right there at the end and that’s despite shooting just 8 of 28 from three-point range and 18 of 27 at the free throw line. Both of these teams obviously feel they will play better on Saturday. But the Hawks are better rested and at home. Trae Young is certainly going to have a bounce back effort here after going just 3 of 17 and scoring 14 points on Thursday. Atlanta also needs the win more as they are 10th in the East, only one game ahead of Washington. This is a double revenge spot for the Hawks, who have twice lost to the Raptors over the last month. I like them to get the job done. 8* Atlanta |
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02-26-22 | Wisconsin v. Rutgers -2.5 | Top | 66-61 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
8* Rutgers (6:00 ET): This is the second time in less than two weeks that Wisconsin, who is ranked #14, is a short underdog to an unranked conference foe. They eked out a 74-69 win at Indiana back on 2/15, but I don’t think the Badgers pull the same trick again here. This is an overrated team, according to my power rankings. I faded them earlier in the week when they escaped Minnesota with a one-point win (Minnesota covered as five-point dogs). The Badgers’ record in close games has been insanely good. I think they’re due to drop one. Oh by the way, Saturday’s opponent (Rutgers) won in Madison earlier this month! After Wednesday, Wisconsin is now 13-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have clearly been one of the luckiest teams in the entire country this season. Clearly, unless you are from Madison, you can’t possibly believe that the Badgers are the 14th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10! My power ratings have them at #30. Rutgers has played an insanely hard schedule of late, but they’ve (mostly) been up to the challenge. They had four straight wins over Top 25 teams (including Wisconsin) before losing at Purdue and Michigan. This is a different team at the RAC as the Scarlet Knights are 13-2 SU at home and holding teams to just 59.7 PPG. Look for them to sweep the season series and cover the spread here. 8* Rutgers |
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02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:10 ET): The Suns played last night and won 124-104 in OKC. Thus they picked up right where they left off before the All-Star Break and have now won eight in a row (and 19 of 20!) and continue to pace the Western Conference with a remarkable 49-10 overall record. This is the best team in the NBA right now, there’s no denying that. But laying this many points, in the second night of a back to back, immediately following a long break seems like as good a time as any to fade them. New Orleans is looking to get that last play-in spot. They are 12th in the West, but only 1.5 games back of Portland. Before the Break, they dropped four of five (all at home). But, unlike the Suns, the Pelicans are rested coming into Friday’s tilt. Also, while the overall record may not sound all that impressive, consider the fact the Pelicans started the year 3-16. Since that time, they’ve played .500 ball and been competitive. They now have CJ McCollum, who they acquired from Portland in a trade at the deadline. Lost in the Suns’ margin of victory last night is the fact they don’t have Chris Paul (injured) right now. They didn’t need their floor leader against a hapless side like the Thunder, but here it should matter more. I know the Suns have beaten the Pelicans twice so far this season, both times by double digits. But the situation really favors the underdog tonight and they didn’t shoot well in either of those first two head to head matchups. They’re a better team now than they were in January (when they last faced PHX). Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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02-25-22 | St. Louis v. Richmond -2.5 | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Two teams in the upper tier of the Atlantic 10 meet in this Friday night battle on ESPN2. I had Richmond on Tuesday, laying the points with them at GW and they came through with a 84-71 win and cover. Looking back, the Spiders have really only had one bad game (more like one bad half) since losing the first meeting with St. Louis, 76-69 back on Jan 2. Since that time, three of their four losses have been by three points or less. The exception was last Friday at VCU (lost by 20), but that was a tie game at halftime. Saint Louis, who is a game up on Richmond for fifth place in the A-10, hasn’t really beaten anyone in the A-10’s upper tier with the exception of a 72-61 win over Dayton three weeks ago. The Billikens dropped two games to St. Bonaventure and were also recently blown out at Davidson. They did rebound from that 21-point loss by defeating St. Joe’s on Tuesday, but that was at home. The Billikens are just 3-4 SU on the conference road this season compared to 7-1 SU at home. Saint Louis is the highest scoring team in the A-10, but they struggle defensively out on the road, giving up 76.1 PPG. Look for Richmond to take advantage. I also find it hard to believe that teams will continue hitting 38% of their 3PA against the Spiders here in Richmond. In the first meeting, Richmond held St. Louis to 5 of 19 from three-point range. This is a major revenge spot for the home team as they’ve lost three in a row to SLU, who is just 1-10 ATS its L11 road games vs. teams that have winning home records. 8* Richmond |
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02-24-22 | USC v. Oregon State +10.5 | Top | 94-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (11:00 ET): USC was very lucky to escape with a 62-60 win Sunday night against Washington State. Thankfully, I had Wazzu plus the points, so it was a winning bet for me. USC won the game on a last second shot after trailing most of the way. They were down six with just over five minutes to go and scored the game’s final five points. Curiously, Washington State was 5 of 32 from TWO-point range in the game and could not take full advantage of 16 offensive rebounds. It was a very odd box score and again, USC was lucky to walk away the victor. At 23-4, this is USC’s best start to a season since 1974. I maintain that the Trojans are slightly overrated and just barely a Top 25 team. They have been rather fortunate to go 7-1 SU in games decided by five points or less. Laying double digits here, on the road, seems like a good time to fade. The Trojans have covered just two of their last eight games. One was as a 10.5 point dog at Arizona (they lost the game straight up) while the other was as a two-point dog (beat UCLA by three). The last time this team covered as a favorite was January 24th. Meanwhile, it has been an incredible free fall for Oregon State, who was in the Elite Eight last year and now is 3-22 straight up. I recall playing against them (successfully) in the very first game of the season. The Beavers have not won since 12/31 and have one of the worst ATS records in the country at 6-18-1. However, I think this is a good value on them in Corvallis. Every SU win this year has come at home and earlier in the year, they stayed within 10 of USC on the road (despite being -12 in FT attempts). Hold your nose and take the points here. USC is overrated. 8* Oregon State |
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02-24-22 | Belmont +3 v. Murray State | Top | 43-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Belmont (9:00 ET): Well, here we go. It’s second-place Belmont (14-2 in OVC, 24-5 overall) taking on first place Murray State (16-0, 26-2) in perhaps the marquee “mid-major” game of this College Basketball season. As you can see from the spread, oddsmakers believe these teams are pretty evenly ranked, much more so than the pollsters, who have Murray State as the #19 team in America and Belmont barely drawing any votes. My view is that Murray State has been a great story this year, but they are NOT one of the Top 20 teams in America. In fact, my own power ratings don’t even have them in the top 50! So it’s probably time for the Racers to be knocked down a peg. They’ve had two “close calls” recently, needing to come from behind in the second half against both Morehead State and UT Martin. Now both those games were on the road. At home, just like in conference play, Murray State is undefeated this season. But it’s probably worth mentioning that they were six-point underdogs in the first meeting with Belmont. The fact they won 82-60 and have gone on such a tear has obviously caused a dramatic shift in the market for this rematch. But, now being ranked, it feels that the Racers are overvalued. Belmont shot horribly in that first meeting, particularly from behind the arc where they finished 5 of 23. They had beaten Murray State four straight times before that loss, however. The Bruins enter tonight’s rematch on a 10-game win streak and four of those wins have been by 20 or more. Tonight is just the fourth time all season that Belmont has been an underdog. They very much have been overshadowed by Murray State’s success this year, but really they are pretty even with the Racers and a legit threat not just to win tonight, but to also “steal” the OVC’s automatic bid in the conference tournament. Take the points. 10* Belmont |
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02-24-22 | Hawks +4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:10 ET): Chicago entered the All-Star Break tied with Miami for the best record in the Eastern Conference. However, there are certain metrics (point differential, net efficiency) that suggest the Bulls are a little lucky to be in the position they currently find themselves in. I’ve got them rated fifth among the Eastern Conference contenders, which obviously suggests a drop here in the second half of the season. Thus, I’ll be fading them coming out the break tonight as they are laying points. Atlanta got off to a VERY slow start this season, but has clawed its way into 10th place in the East and that would give them a shot in the play-in round. I don’t think the Hawks can necessarily finish any better than 8th, but they should have a better second half to the season than they did the first half. The team averaged 127 points in a pair of wins before the break and I think they should put up some points here as Chicago has not been the same defensively since losing Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso to injury. The Bulls are on a five-game win streak coming out of the break, but the Hawks have won 11 of their last 16. All eyes are on DeMar DeRozan, who is the first Chicago player to score 30+ points in eight straight games since Michael Jordan. But Atlanta’s Trae Young is averaging 29.2 PPG his last nine games as well. Remember that the Hawks were in the Eastern Conference finals last season. They remember losing a pair of games to Chicago right after X-Mas and I think will be out for revenge. Take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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02-24-22 | Denver v. St. Thomas -2.5 | Top | 91-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
9* St. Thomas MN (8:00 ET): This would be my first ever play on St. Thomas, a D-I newbie for the 2021-22 season that is competing in the Summit League. The Tommies are simply looking to avoid the basement of the conference standings and with two games to go, I like their chances. They have two favorable matchups, both at home, and are now up a game on last place North Dakota, whom they just defeated 84-74 (as a 1-point road dog) 48 hours ago. Now the Tommies look to avenge a one-point loss they suffered back in December. They are facing Denver, who historically struggles on the road and this season has been no different in that regard. The Pioneers are 2-12 SU in “true” road games, last winning one against aforementioned North Dakota back on ⅔. That’s Denver’s only win over its L7 games as they’ve dropped four in a row, most recently a three-point decision at Omaha seven days ago. That game saw them blow an eight-point lead in the final two minutes and lose at the buzzer. The first meeting between these teams saw Denver shoot the ball ridiculously well at 58.7% overall. But of course that was at home where they play much better. St. Thomas had a 15-point halftime advantage in that first meeting, something that I’m sure the players remember and they’ll be looking to avenge that memory. Also, the Tommies haven’t won at home since New Year’s Day, something they’ll be looking to change. After failing to cover 11 in a row, they’ve covered back to back games. Lay the short number. 9* St. Thomas MN |
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02-24-22 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Western Illinois -12.5 | Top | 76-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* Western Illinois (7:00 ET): It may seem a bit strange to see a team like Western Illinois laying double digits, but you have to consider just how BAD Omaha has been all season long. The fact that the visitors come into this Thursday night Summit League clash off a rare win makes them an even stronger fade, at least in my estimation. Then there’s the matter of this being a revenge game for Western Illinois, who dropped the first meeting (as 13-point road favorites) back in December. You’re going to want to lay the points here. Omaha is 5-22 SU this season, but like I said, they did win their last game. It was a 72-69 win - as 2-point home underdogs - over Denver exactly one week ago. Incredibly, the Mavericks were able to come back from an eight-point deficit in the final two minutes with Frankie Fidler scoring all 11 points, including the game-winning three at the buzzer. Do not expect that kind of magic to repeat itself on the road where Omaha has yet to win this season (0-13) and is being outscored by 24.2 PPG. Western Illinois is on a five-game ATS losing streak, so we’re getting a great value on them here. The Leathernecks were actually 13-point favorites ON THE ROAD in the first meeting with Omaha, a game where they shot horribly (32.4%), especially from three-point range (7 of 37). I really love the revenge angle here, plus the fact we’re getting to play against Omaha off a win. Western Illinois is a high-scoring team (78.8 PPG) and plays much better defense at home. They’ll shoot a lot better tonight than they did in that first matchup with the Mavericks. 8* Western Illinois |
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02-23-22 | LSU +7.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 66-71 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
8* LSU (9:00 ET): The Tigers have fallen out of both polls, but are still considered top 18 by both KenPom and my ratings. There are six SEC teams that I feel belong amongst the Top 20 in the country (it’s a very strong league this year) and this is definitely one of them. LSU is #3 in the country in defensive efficiency, which will serve them well come March and in this critical matchup Wednesday night at Kentucky. Already this season, the Tigers have beaten the Wildcats, 65-60 as a two-point FAVORITE down in Baton Rouge. Because of the revenge angle, this number is inflated. It should be pointed out that Kentucky has struggled in B2B games, first losing by 13 at Tennessee and then falling behind by that same margin against Alabama, before rallying for a win on Saturday. There is no denying the fact that John Calipari has himself a team that can cut down the nets this year. But given the recent form, I can’t see the Wildcats covering this spread tonight. LSU, who is off a loss, is going to be the more motivated side even though they won the first head to head matchup. It was a 77-75 loss at South Carolina on Saturday for LSU. That dropped them to 7-7 SU in SEC play, very much in the middle of the pack, which is not at all indicative of how they stack up against the rest of the league. The Tigers led South Carolina by as many as 11 in the second half before wilting late. This will be just the fifth time getting points all season. Kentucky is short-handed right now and all five starters played 35+ minutes on Saturday. Grab the points. 8* LSU |
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02-23-22 | Wisconsin v. Minnesota +5 | Top | 68-67 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:00 ET): #13 Wisconsin has been extremely lucky in close games this season as they are 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. They have the #7 luck rating at KenPom, who has them at #25 overall. My own power ratings have them a bit lower (#31). Clearly, unless you’re from Madison, you can’t possibly think that the Badgers are the 13th best team in the country. I think that they are only the SEVENTH best team in the Big 10 and consider they were recently a short dog at Indiana, who is NOT one of the six Big 10 teams I have ahead of Wisconsin in my power ratings. Nor is Minnesota one of the top six. But the Golden Gophers are coming off a win, 77-60 over Northwestern as 4.5-point home dogs. It speaks volumes that Wisconsin is basically getting the same amount of respect here than N’western did. Minnesota has won its last two home games, also defeating Penn State 76-70 (as a one-point favorite) back on 2/12. Earlier in the season, the Gophers covered the number at Madison, losing only 66-60 as an 11.5-point dog. The game was tied with 2:23 remaining Remember that this is Wisconsin’s first game after the fracas against Michigan on Sunday. HC Greg Gard was not suspended, but fined and the aftermath could very well be a distraction for the Badgers heading into this one. The Badgers only shoot 31% from behind the three-point line, which is second to last in the Big 10. They instead live at the free throw line and rely on not turning the ball over. Given how their season has played out, I don’t think it’s a sustainable blueprint. Take the points here as I believe an outright upset is likely. 10* Minnesota |
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02-23-22 | Evansville v. Loyola-Chicago -20.5 | Top | 31-82 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (8:00 ET): I “smell” blowout in this one as the best and worst teams in the Missouri Valley match up on Wednesday. Loyola Chicago has stumbled a bit recently, going just 5-3 SU in its last eight games, but that may be a byproduct of having gotten off to such a strong start in conference play. Now the Ramblers find themselves in a first place tie with Northern Iowa, who they’ll face in the regular season finale on Saturday. I don’t see any “fooling around” tonight as Loyola can clinch at least a share of the MVC regular season crown with a win here. Evansville is at the opposite end of the spectrum, in last place in the conference. The Purple Aces are just 6-21 SU overall and 2-14 in conference play. It is a virtual guarantee at this point that they will be seeded last in the conference tourney. Five straight losses, including 74-69 at Valpo on Monday, have really dampened spirits and I just can’t see how the Evansville players come into this one with any sense of motivation, knowing that a blowout loss is quite likely. Meanwhile, it’s the final home game for the Loyola seniors, so they’ll be even more fired up. This is a team that shoots 37.8% from three-point range with Williamson and Norris both over 41%. When they faced Evansville last month, it turned into a bloodbath with the Ramblers making 62.8% of their FG attempts and going 10 of 17 from behind the arc. The final score was 77-48. Following an atypical poor shooting effort Monday at Illinois State (still won 59-50), I expect Loyola to get hot here and never let up. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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02-23-22 | Xavier +2.5 v. Providence | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Xavier (7:00 ET): Providence’s incredible run of luck is bordering on being downright preposterous at this point. They just came back from 19 down (in the second half!) to stun Butler in overtime this past weekend. That was the Friars’ second OT win in the last three games (sandwiched around a loss to Villanova) and five of their last six wins have been by four points or less. For the season, they are 10-1 SU in games decided by five or less. At 22-3 SU and leading the Big East Conference, Providence obviously deserves to be ranked. But to think that they are a Top 10 team is insanity. My own power ratings have them at #45 in the country and say they are just the sixth best team in the Big East! That’s right in line with what KenPom says. Xavier will try and knock off the Friars here. This is a revenge game for the Musketeers as they lost the season’s first meeting 65-62 on a last second three-pointer. Xavier was ranked, but has dropped four of its last five coming into tonight. Two of those losses were by four points or less. Saturday saw them lose at UConn, who is the second best team in the Big East. Xavier did not shoot the ball well at UConn, making only 38.3% overall and 29.4% from three-point range. Yet HC Travis Steele seemed to think it was a case of his team simply missing open looks. I look for the shots to fall tonight for the Musketeers. Providence has failed to cover three in a row and due to drop a game before the end of the regular season. No team in America has been luckier this year than the Friars. Xavier actually has the better YTD point differential! Take the points. 8* Xavier |
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02-23-22 | Central Arkansas v. North Alabama -5.5 | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* North Alabama (7:00 ET): Here’s a matchup most normally wouldn’t think of playing, but my power rankings say there’s tremendous value on the home side, who “should” be laying double digits! North Alabama’s ATS record of 8-14-1 obviously leaves a lot to be desired, but Central Arkansas is not a good team at all and has just two road wins all season. It would seem as if we’re getting a really solid value here as North Alabama was a 3.5-point road favorite the first time these teams played. Now the Lions lost that first meeting 89-88 after blowing a 10-point halftime lead. They led by seven with under a minute to go in regulation! But somehow they let Central Arkansas make four baskets in the final 50 seconds to force overtime. It’s been “that kind of year” for North Alabama, who now finds itself in last place in the ASun West Division with a 2-12 SU record in conference play. They’ve lost six in a row, however four of those losses were by six points or less and the last two were by a total of seven points. It still may feel “risky” to lay points with a team like that, but I assure you that Central Arkansas is very bad. They are my lowest rated team in the entire Atlantic Sun, so it’s a bit shocking to see them with a 6-8 SU conference record. The oddsmakers have not had them favored in a single game this season! It was a 19-point loss that the Bears suffered on Monday (to Liberty). Meanwhile, North Alabama hasn’t played since Saturday, so the schedule sets up nicely for the home team in this one. 8* North Alabama |
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02-22-22 | Alabama -3.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 74-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
10* Alabama (9:00 ET): I’m not ready to “give up” on the Crimson Tide just yet, who definitely deserved to stay ranked following Saturday’s tough 90-81 loss at Kentucky. The Tide led that game by 13 in the 1st half, so they were incredibly unfortunate to leave Lexington without at least an ATS win. The loss dropped them into a four-way tie for fifth in the SEC and three full games back of the top four. I believe Bama is a lot closer to those top four teams than they are the rest of the conference pack. Laying just a short number at Vandy on Tuesday, this is a spot where you’ll want to be on Nate Oats’ team. Like I mentioned earlier, Bama is still ranked, albeit barely at #25. Both my own personal power ratings and the KenPom ratings have them at #20. I will readily admit that the Crimson Tide have NOT been a good bet in conference play as they are just 2-11 ATS vs. the rest of the SEC this season. But this is an opportunity for them to go on the road and make a statement against a Vandy team that just isn’t anywhere near the same class as Bama, despite being only a game behind in the standings. Among SEC teams, I have the Commodores rated 10th and outside the top 80 in the country. The Commies did pick up a win on Saturday, beating Texas A&M 72-67. That was a game where both teams shot very poorly from three-point range, but where Vandy got really lucky was that A&M starters combined for just EIGHT total points in the 1H. I’ve mentioned this with Bama before, but despite very poor three-point shooting this season, they are still averaging more than 80 PPG. Defensively, the game vs. Kentucky exposed some of the issues, but Vanderbilt is not Kentucky. I look for Oats’ team to make a statement tonight that they belong in the Top 25. 10* Alabama |
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02-22-22 | Richmond -6 v. George Washington | Top | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
8* Richmond (7:00 ET): Richmond flat out got embarrassed on Friday, losing by 20 at VCU. That was a damaging loss for the Spiders, who are now sixth in the Atlantic 10 standings and four games off the pace of first place Davidson. Coming off a result like that, many are likely to be a bit “gun-shy” about laying the points on the road here, but I’ll note that Richmond was actually even at the half with VCU and this number really speaks volumes about the gap between the top six in the A-10 and everyone else. George Washington is actually the seventh place team in the A-10 right now with a 7-6 SU conference record. The Colonials have had themselves a profitable last month or so, going 8-1 ATS their last nine games. But they’ve mainly been beating up on the bottom of the conference, defeating teams such as Fordham, LaSalle, Duquesne and Rhode Island (twice). It’s interesting that all three SU losses in those L9 games came against teams in the top six of the A-10, two of them by double digits (13 at St. Louis and 26 at Dayton). Prior to things going awry in the 2H at VCU, Richmond had finally been feeling pretty good about itself. They went into Friday having won seven of nine, the two losses coming by a total of five points. I think the Spiders are better than their record and should hit “paydirt” here. The goal down the stretch is getting a top four seed (double bye) for the conference tournament and that is still very attainable. GW was picked to finish 13th this year in the A-10, so they’ve overachieved as of late. Lay the points. 8* Richmond |
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02-21-22 | New Mexico State v. Seattle University +2 | Top | 68-55 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
10* Seattle U (10:00 ET): With the benefit of hindsight, I’m going to look back and realize I faded New Mexico State “a game too soon.” Saturday did not go well for me when I took Grand Canyon as my *10* WAC Game of the Month as they were beaten soundly at home by NMSU, 82-66 (line was GCU -2.5). I thought my reasoning was sound (obviously) as Grand Canyon came into that game at 12-1 SU at home. But it was “not to be” as NMSU came in and outclassed them from the jump, But the beauty of this is being able to learn from your mistakes and taking advantage of another opportunity. Such is the case here as I just don’t think NMSU is going to be able to win a second straight difficult road game. This time the opponent is Seattle, whom the Aggies are tied with for first place in the conference (both 12-2 SU). Seattle comes in riding a four-game win streak and is looking to avenge one of its two conference losses as they fell 79-64 as eight-point pups in Las Cruces back on February 5th. That was the last time that the Redhawks lost a game. It was a rough shooting night for Seattle back on the 5th as they connected on only 31.9% of their total FG attempts and were 6 of 32 from three-point range. Saturday saw more poor shooting as Seattle sunk just 31.4% of its FG attempts, but this time they were able to still win, 67-64 over Cal Baptist here at home. Fortunately, they were able to dominate in second chance points and took 23 more FG attempts. Should be noted the game before saw Seattle score 102. They average 78.1 PPG for the season at home, where they are 12-1 SU. 10* Seattle U |
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02-21-22 | The Citadel +7 v. Samford | Top | 74-76 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
8* The Citadel (8:00 ET): Samford has been one of the luckiest teams in the country this season, posting the #4 luck rating over at KenPom and posting nine wins by six points or less. Much of that good fortune has come recently as the last four wins have all been by six or less and the Bulldogs have won seven of eight overall. It should also be noted that two of their last four wins have required overtime. The one loss in the last eight games came against the team that they face on Monday and I believe the line for the rematch is inflated. Take the points here. It was on February 5th that The Citadel defeated Samford 107-93 as 1-point home underdogs. No, there was no overtime in that game, a battle of “Bulldogs” if you will. Samford scored a season high 53 points in the first half, but that wasn’t enough as The Citadel scored 100+ points in a game for the fourth time this season and got season-highs in points from both Hayden Brown (35) and Jason Roche (29). Samford played much better defense on Saturday, holding UNC Greensboro to 49 points on 28.3% shooting. The expectation here will be for revenge, but like I said earlier, the line looks inflated. Plus, you have to factor in just how fortunate Samford has been all season, especially as of late. The Citadel have been held well below their season average of 78.0 points in B2B games and you have to figure another offensive explosion is forthcoming. Prior to winning seven of their last eight, Samford had lost six of seven, so they are inconsistent. It’s not often they are asked to lay this many points, so take advantage. 8* The Citadel |
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02-20-22 | Washington State +7 v. USC | Top | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
10* Washington State (7:30 ET): Back on Thursday, I faded USC. It was a little bit of a lucky cover by Washington, who trailed by 17 at halftime and was down by as many as 23 in the second half. But I’ll take it. The reason I faded the Trojans in that spot was two-fold. One, they were coming off an upset win over rival UCLA. Two, I happen to think they’re overrated. While no longer off a big win, Southern Cal being overrated (at #17 in the country) still rings true, so I’m gonna grab the points for the second straight time and go against them. With apologies to Bill Walton, the Pac 12 is not a particularly deep league this season. Right now, I don’t see more than three teams making the Big Dance. USC is on the right side of the bubble. But the fourth best team in the league, according to my power ratings, is Washington State and the gap between them and the Trojans is not that large. The Cougars have been one of the unluckier teams in the country this season, at least per KenPom, and that’s backed up by their 1-8 SU record in games decided by five points or less. I think it’s time for Wazzu to show that it’s better than its record (14-11 SU). Yes, they’ve dropped four in a row. But two of those losses were by a total of six points and the other two were against Arizona and UCLA, who are the class of the conference. The Cougs shot a season-low 28.3% against UCLA on Thursday and will be a lot better offensively tonight. It was a two-point loss when they faced USC back in December. I believe there’s a very good chance of an outright upset here. 10* Washington State |
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02-20-22 | New Mexico v. San Jose State +6.5 | Top | 55-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
8* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State has not won a game since January 8th and that was against Bethesda (CA), a non-DI team. So why would I be taking them? Well, I believe they are catching New Mexico in a flat spot. Over the last six days, the Lobos have faced Wyoming and Colorado State, two of the top teams in the Mountain West. Both games were at home. They pulled the upset over Wyoming, but were not nearly as fortunate against Colorado State. The Lobos’ road resume leaves a lot to be desired as they are just 2-8 SU this season outside of Albuquerque and giving up 82.6 PPG. Furthermore, New Mexico has not played a road game since Feb 5 when it downed Air Force 91-77. That is their only win outside the state of New Mexico all season. The other road win came on 11/30, against New Mexico State, 101-94. The Lobos are just 1-5 ATS their last six trips here to San Jose. This will be just the second time all year they’ve been a road favorite and first time laying more than one point. In the season’s first meeting, New Mexico won 86-70, but it’s difficult for me to see them holding the Spartans to 22.2% shooting from three-point range again. Defense has been a major issue for the Lobos. They just gave up 40+ points in both halves vs. Colorado State. Them laying this many points away from home just seems like a bad idea. San Jose State is not going to want to go winless in conference play for an entire regular season. This is their best shot at a win the rest of the way. Take the points. 8* San Jose State |
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02-20-22 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 63-77 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
8* Michigan (1:00 ET): I’ve been “suspicious” about Wisconsin for some time now, not believing they are one of the top 25 teams in America. Give the Badgers credit though for going into Indiana earlier this week and picking up a 74-69 win. They were actually underdogs in that game, despite being the #14 team in the country facing a ranked opponent. Here, they are only a short home favorite and that’s for good reason as Michigan (who is also off a five-point road win) is rated higher in my power ratings. Take the points. The Wolverines are looking to make it back to back road wins here as they won at Iowa on Thursday, 84-79 as a five-point dog. That’s an impressive win as Iowa is a top 20 team in my power ratings and better than Wisconsin. But Juwan Howard’s team still enters Sunday firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble as they are among the “last four in.” At just 14-10 SU on the year, the Maize and Blue can’t afford too many more losses. They have matched up well with Wisconsin in the past, taking six of the previous eight meetings and sweeping the season series last year. The Badgers are among the luckiest teams in the country this season as they are now 12-1 SU in games decided by six points or less. The other key to their success has been committing the fewest number of turnovers per game in the entire country. But they are still just the EIGHTH highest rated Big 10 team in my power ratings, which speaks volumes. Michigan, who I believe is a fringe Top 25 team despite its record, has played a top four schedule and is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency. 8* Michigan |
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02-20-22 | Providence v. Butler +4 | Top | 71-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
8* Butler (1:00 ET): I just played against Butler, on Friday, and that went very well as the Bulldogs lost 91-57 at St. John’s. They shot only 34.5% from the field while letting the Red Storm hit a blistering 61.4%. But that was a road game and an atypical final margin when looking through recent Butler results. Prior to that ugly loss, six straight Butler games had been decided by six points or less with five decided by three or less. Last time they were at home, the Bulldogs upset Marquette. I believe they can do the same to what I believe is the most overrated team in America, Providence. The Friars got a “taste of their own medicine” back on Tuesday, losing a close one at home to Villanova 89-84. I say “taste of their own medicine” because this team had gone a ridiculous 9-0 SU in games decided by five points or less. Just to give you an idea on my outlook on the Friars, they are not even in the top 40 of my power rankings, despite a 21-3 overall SU record and leading the Big East. I think that after suffering a high-profile loss, they are ripe to be upset here. Things fell apart for Butler late in the first half against St. John’s. I expect the team to play much better here after being embarrassed. Bryce Nze did return to the lineup Friday and played 25 minutes. So that’s a positive. The lingering question now is if Bo Hodges can return here. He’s listed as questionable. With or without him, I expect the upset to be pulled as the Bulldogs were able to stay within seven of Providence (on the road) back on 1/22 despite going 5 of 20 from three-point range and 1 of 4 at the FT line. Take the points. 8* Butler |
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02-19-22 | Long Beach State v. UC-Santa Barbara -4.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
10* UCSB (10:00 ET): This line should tell you “all you need to know.” Long Beach State, who is in first place in the Big West and on an 11-0 SU/ATS run, is an underdog to UCSB, who is buried in the middle of the conference pack. What gives? Long Beach State has been among the luckiest teams in the country this season while UCSB has been THE unluckiest. This per the KenPom ratings. The Gauchos are my second highest rated team in the Big West (behind UC Irvine, NOT LBSU) and deserved favorites here. Long Beach State will be playing its third straight road game and second in three nights here. So they are ripe to be blown out. It’s an incredible run that the Beach has been on when you consider they’ve been the underdog in six of the 11 straight games that they have won, including five of the last eight. They were 4.5-point underdogs when they hosted UCSB earlier in the season. That wound up being a 65-58 final as UCSB played a terrible second half, scoring only 24 points. They finished that game 3 of 15 from three-point range. Expect better tonight. UCSB actually led that first meeting by eight at halftime. Another difference was while LBSU was 17 of 17 from the FT line, UCSB was only 9 of 15. These teams have pretty similar FT shooting numbers for the season, so that disparity won’t repeat itself. The Gauchos are holding visiting teams to just 38.1% shooting when here at home (allow only 59.6 PPG). This team is simply much better than its record and tonight is the time they’ll prove that. 10* UCSB |
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02-19-22 | New Mexico State v. Grand Canyon -1 | Top | 82-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
9* Grand Canyon (8:00 ET): It’s a pretty tight race atop the WAC, which is a better league than you may think. I’ve got New Mexico State and Grand Canyon rated as the top two teams, but for the latter, this game is far more important as they are actually tied for fourth in the standings with a 9-4 SU conference record. Tonight is a revenge spot as the Antelopes lost to NMSU 71-61 late last month. But laying just a small number at home, where GCU is 12-1 SU and 7-4 ATS this season, is a great value. For starters, Grand Canyon shot very poorly in that first meeting with New Mexico State. Not only did they finish at just 29.5% overall for the game, but they were a horrendous 5 of 32 from three-point range. Expect an obvious improvement in shooting here at home where their three-point percentage for the season is hovering near 40%. It’s actually a pretty raucous crowd that GCU plays in front of at home and they’ve rewarded fans by outscoring opponents by 19.3 PPG here this season. Also, don’t discount the defense, which limits teams to 38.4% shooting (that’s all games). New Mexico State is typically the standard-bearer in this conference and sure enough they are currently in first with an 11-2 record. But I think the Aggies have been a bit lucky this season as they are 5-1 SU in games decided by six or less. I’ll definitely be looking to fade them down the stretch. Their last time on the road resulted in a loss to Utah Valley State as a three-point favorite. This game is absolutely crucial to Grand Canyon’s chances of getting a top two seed in the WAC Tournament (and a double bye). I love this spot for them. 9* Grand Canyon |
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02-19-22 | Florida State +15.5 v. Duke | Top | 70-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
8* Florida State (6:00 ET): Duke, who is the only ranked team in the ACC right now (#9), probably feels pretty good about its chances of being alone in first place by the end of Saturday. Notre Dame, who they are tied with, is a six-point underdog at Wake Forest earlier in the day. Here, the Blue Devils are big double digit favorites, at home. But I think it’s a good time to step in and fade as Florida State is certainly about due to cover the spread. The Seminoles are a shocking 0-7 ATS their L7 games entering tonight. At least FSU was able to get back into the win column earlier this week, albeit by the slimmest of possible margins. They beat Clemson 81-80, which snapped a six-game SU skid. Unfortunately for ‘Noles backers, they were laying 1.5. The big issue for this team right now is injuries as three starters have gone down since FSU upset Duke 79-78 as five-point underdogs in Tallahassee back on January 18th. But the Noles are still competing. Only the loss to North Carolina last Saturday exceeds tonight’s spread. Duke is also off a last second win, 76-74 over Wake Forest, where they played without Coach K on the bench for the second half. The Hall of Famer had to leave due to illness and his status (for coaching today’s game) remains up in the air. That makes it difficult to prepare and with a three-game road trip upcoming (starting with another revenge spot, against Virginia), I’m not sure “all eyes” are on this game from the Duke perspective. FSU won the first meeting despite shooting only 35.6% overall and 7 of 25 from 3-point range. They won’t be blown out here. 8* Florida State |
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02-19-22 | Everton +0.5 v. Southampton | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -121 | 19 h 33 m | Show |
10* Everton +0.5 (10:00 AM ET): I’m taking Everton to get at least a point on Saturday. To be clear, with this bet, a draw is a win and so too (obviously) is an outright win. This is a huge fixture for the Toffees, who can move further away from the relegation zone in the Premier League. Currently, they are in 16th place with 22 points, which is only five clear for safety. They picked up a much needed 3-0 win over Leeds last week, their second victory in the last three fixtures. I see them building off that here. Southampton is certainly in the midst of a surge. The Saints have picked up points in three consecutive matches, despite facing the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham and Manchester United. They drew with the two teams from Manchester and won away 3-2 at Tottenham. But I feel now is as good a time as any to sell high on the team from St. Mary’s. I just don’t see them being able to crack into the top half of the table and their -7 YTD goal differential isn’t all that much better than Everton’s -10. Moreover, Southampton may have seven more points than Everton, but that’s partly due to having played two more times. In the reverse, way back in August, the Toffees prevailed 3-1. They very much dominated that day and were deserved winners. Following the January transfer window, this side has some needed reinforcements and is finally healthy again. Southampton, who has drawn seven times in 11 home matches (most in EPL), isn’t 100 percent healthy coming into Saturday. The Saints were lucky to share the points last week with Man U. The three sides below them in the table all have better GD. 10* Everton +0.5 |
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02-19-22 | Hoffenheim v. VfL Wolfsburg | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
10* Wolfsburg (9:30 AM ET): I’m taking Wolfsburg on the goal line, which means a draw is a no bet. Die Wolf has seemingly turned things around the L2 weeks, following a dreadful run of form that saw them go winless for 11 consecutive matches, including nine defeats. That had them dangerously close to the relegation zone, but now they’re back up to a more respectable 12th position in the table and only seven points off the top four (which is where they finished last season). A third straight win here would be gigantic. Now Hoffenheim is currently one of the four sides tied for fourth place in the Bundesliga with 34 points. I greatly prefer Leipzig in the race for the final Champions League spot, so don’t expect Die Kraichgauer to move past them. Like Wolfsburg, it had been a poor run of form recently with three consecutive losses for Hoffenheim before last week’s 2-0 win over Arminia Bielefeld. I find it very difficult to believe they can do any better than sharing the points here, given the poor defense that preceded last week’s victory. Last week was the first “clean sheet” for Hoffenheim since 11/20 vs. Leipzig. After opening 2022 with a 3-1 win over Augsburg (a bottom of the table side), Hoffenheim conceded at least two goals in four straight fixtures, all against teams in the top half of the table. So I expect Wolfsburg to get a goal or two here, continuing the offensive resurgence that has seen them find the back of the next six times over the L2 matches. Also, Die Wolf has revenge for a 3-1 loss in the reverse back in September. Again, no worse than a draw here for the home team. I like those odds. 10* Wolfsburg |
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02-18-22 | Missouri v. Mississippi State -10.5 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Earlier in the week, I faded Miss State. That proved to be a mistake as the Bulldogs just barely stayed within the number at Alabama, losing by only five. But they probably don’t care too much about that down in Starkville as the team is still on a four-game SU losing streak. All four of those losses came to teams that are currently ranked in the top 25 of my power ratings (Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU & Bama). The SEC is tough! But tonight’s opponent, Missouri, is anything but. This is a “get well” game for the home team. Mizzou just got thrashed by Arkansas on Tuesday, losing by 19 points.That was the deficit at halftime, so the game was never really close. The big problem for the Tigers is that they lack a true point guard and opponents are taking advantage by forcing a lot of turnovers. They are 239th in the country in assist to turnover ratio and that’s played a big role in them sitting near the bottom of the SEC standings. Only Ole Miss and Georgia currently sit below. Two of the Tigers’ SEC wins have come against Ole Miss. This will be the first of two meetings in three days between these teams. As hosts for the first one, I expect Miss State to come out “smelling blood in the water.” They led Alabama in the second half on Wednesday. That was after a second half rally fell short at LSU. The Bulldogs played Arkansas and Tennessee tough as well. Like I said earlier, this is a “get well” game and it’s against a Missouri team they’ve beaten four straight. 8* Mississippi State |
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02-18-22 | Marist +1.5 v. Siena | Top | 62-53 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
10* Marist (7:00 ET): Marist is the better team here. Siena has been incredibly lucky this season with the second highest “luck rating” over at KenPom (trailing only Providence). The Saints’ good fortune has continued recently with three consecutive upset victories - over Fairfield, Iona (MAAC leader) and Rider. This run has them squarely in second in the conference (with a 9-4 SU record), but my own power ratings indicate this is anything but the second best team in the MAAC. It’s time for them to suffer a loss. Marist is also coming into Friday riding a three-game win streak. The Red Foxes have beaten Monmouth (83-58 on the road!), Canisius (71-70) and Niagara (77-70). The last two wins were at home, but Marist has more than held its own on the road this season. That includes a 5-0 ATS record when the total is 130 to 134.5. Tonight is also a revenge game for the Red Foxes, who lost at home to Siena, 67-60 as four-point favorites back on January 14th. They will be highly motivated for this one. Siena needed OT to get by Rider on Sunday in what was a revenge spot for them. The Saints scored 40 first-half points in that one, a season-high. I would not expect a repeat of that; after all this is a team that is averaging less than THIRTY points in the first half over the course of the season. They rank outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency! Meanwhile, Marist has been one of the unluckiest teams in the country per KenPom (343rd in luck rating) and has gone 3-7 SU in games decided by six pts or less. It’s time for the luck to turn for these two teams! 10* Marist |
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02-18-22 | Butler v. St. John's -7.5 | Top | 57-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
8* St. John’s (5:00 ET): Butler has played nothing but close games recently with each of their six contests decided by six points or less. Five of them were decided by three points or less! The Bulldogs ended up going 3-3 SU in those six games as they are off B2B upset wins over Marquette and DePaul. But it’s tough for me to forecast a third consecutive upset win here as you’ve got to question what the team has “left in the tank” after such a rash of close contests. Also, Butler may still be without starters Hodges and Nze. St. John’s is off one of its most impressive wins of the season, beating Xavier 86-73 on the road as a 7.5-point dog. The Red Storm seem to have turned it around a bit after a rocky first half of the season. They’ve won three of five, the only losses coming to Villanova and UConn, who I have rated as the two best teams in the Big East. Leading scorer Julian Champagnie had 27 points in the win over Marquette on Wednesday and the team shot better than 50% for the seventh time this season. This is the second time Butler and St. John’s are meeting this month. The Johnnies won the first meeting, on the road, 75-72 despite shooting just 2 of 16 from three-point range. You’ve got to imagine they’ll shoot better than that here. Meanwhile, I don’t see Butler matching its 51.8% shooting from that game as they are averaging only 60.1 PPG on the road while shooting 40.1% overall and 29% from three-point range. This should be a double digit win for the home team. 8* St. John’s |
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02-17-22 | Washington +11.5 v. USC | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Washington (11:30 ET): This is a good spot to fade USC, who I don’t think is the 17th best team in the country anyway. The Trojans are coming off a huge win last week, 67-64 over rival USC, and even with a few days off won’t be able to match the intensity from that game. As I already mentioned, the Trojans are a bit overrated as they aren’t in the top 25 of my own power ratings or at KenPom. The fact USC was able to beat UCLA, despite not having leading scorer (and rebounder) Isaiah Mobley was a minor miracle. Also, their second leading scorer Boogie Ellis did not have a single point! Mobley is expected back for this game, but may struggle in recovering from a concussion. I certainly can’t see Drew Peterson matching his career day that happened against the Bruins. It should be noted that USC has failed to cover each of the last four times its has been favored. The final score (92-68) says Washington got rocked in its last game (by Arizona), but they actually led by 14 early in the game and that was without starting guard Daejon Davis. Davis, like Mobley for USC, is expected back tonight. Arizona is one of the best teams in the country, so there’s no shame in losing to them. Believe it or not, the Huskies are just a game behind UCLA in the conference standings entering tonight. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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02-17-22 | 76ers +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 123-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The 76ers were absolutely housed Tuesday night in Boston, losing 135-87 as a two-point underdog. You can bet they will be eager to wash away that embarrassment as they play their final game before the All-Star Break. Now it’s a tough one, in Milwaukee, on TNT. But the Bucks have failed to cover three in a row, losing two of the games straight up. They were blown out in Phoenix, then lost as 12-point favorites here at home to Portland, a real shocker. The Bucks needed 50 from Giannis Antetokounmpo to down Indiana on Tuesday 128-119. While Giannis has seven 40+ point games already this season (already a career-high), the team cannot count on such a performance every night. The Bucks are just 7-15 ATS this season when facing a team that has a winning record. They are also 0-5 ATS when off three consecutive Overs. Both situations apply here. As you’d expect, that loss to the Celtics saw Philly’s Joel Embiid turn in his lowest point total in quite some time. Embiid has been a beast this season and I expect a big game from him tonight. Yes, the Sixers are still without James Harden, but it’s still the same team that’s been in the top five of the East for most of the season. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Sixers as Tuesday was the sixth worst loss in franchise history. They are not that bad and will show up here to compete. 8* Philadelphia |
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02-17-22 | Heat v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:10 ET): The Hornets could really use a win going into the All-Star Break. They’ve lost eight of their last nine games overall including six straight at home. Few setbacks were more painful than what happened Tuesday night in Minnesota. Charlotte led that game the majority of the way, but allowed the T’wolves to tie it and force overtime. It ended up being a 126-120 loss for the Hornets. I don’t even want to get into what that did for my Under play (on 244). Anyway, I do expect the Hornets to come out pretty fired up tonight and cover the spread. Take the points. Charlotte is the highest scoring team in the NBA currently, averaging 113.8 points per game. So they’ve got that going for them. The problem is that they haven’t been scoring a ton recently. Only twice in the last six home games have they topped 101. But they did have 108 in regulation vs. Minnesota and before that scored 118 vs. Memphis and 141 vs, Detroit. Having just blown a 13-point 4Q lead in their last game, the Hornets should come out motivated tonight and I’m expecting them to hit their season average. Miami is off a 107-99 loss to Dallas on Tuesday, at home. Jimmy Butler, who led the team with 29 points in that game, may not be suiting up this evening. He’s questionable with a shoulder injury. Tyler Herro has already been ruled out again (knee). So this is a great opportunity for Charlotte and adding “fuel to the fire” is that they have double revenge for a pair of losses to the Heat earlier this season. 10* Charlotte |
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02-17-22 | Austin Peay +18.5 v. Murray State | Top | 56-91 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
8* Austin Peay (7:00 ET): Murray State has worked its way into the rankings (#21) with a 21-2 SU overall record and 14-game win streak. The Racers are one of three teams in the country (South Dakota State and Gonzaga are the others) with zero conference losses. They are the top ranked mid-major obviously. Do I think Murray State is the 21st best team in the country? In a word, no. My own power ratings have them just outside the top 50. So now is probably as good a time as any to fade them, especially since we are getting such a big number here. Austin Peay is the opponent Thursday night. The Governors are not having the best season (10-14 SU overall) but do come into this game on a three-game win streak. They are 6-8 in conference play, but five of those losses have been to the top three teams (Murray St, Belmont, Morehead State) and two of the other three were by four points or less. The first game vs. Murray State, which was exactly two weeks ago, ended up as a 12-point loss at home but Austin Peay only trailed by four at the half. What I like about the situation here for AP is that Murray State is coming off a close call, a 57-53 win at Morehead State last Saturday, which saw them trail most of the way and shoot very poorly. The Racers didn’t take the lead until the final two minutes of that game. Again, with the number (ranking) attached to their name, they become overvalued by the public/oddsmakers alike. Austin Peay can play good defense and keep this one close. 8* Austin Peay |
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02-17-22 | Towson -3 v. NC-Wilmington | Top | 79-55 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
10* Towson (6:00 ET): OK, so this is probably the biggest game in the CAA so far this season. UNC Wilmington, who no one pegged to win this thing, has been in first place almost the entire way. I’ve gone through the Seahawks’ remarkable overachievement previously and will double back to it in a moment. Towson, who lost at home to UNCW earlier in the season, is just one back in the loss column (two in the win) entering tonight’s contest. The result is huge for the Tigers and I believe they are deserved favorites in this one. Incredibly, UNCW has won seven games this year in which they faced a double digit deficit. Not only that, four of those DD deficits were overcome in the second half! On Monday, when I successfully faded them (as DD favorites), the Seahawks needed overtime to outlast William & Mary, who is probably the worst team in the conference. UNCW has ZERO double digit wins in conference play. Not only are they 3-0 in overtime games this season, they are 9-2 SU when the final margin is six points or less. This has been one of the “luckiest” teams in the country thus far. Towson is one of FIVE teams in the CAA that are rated ahead of UNCW in my own power ratings. In fact, Towson is the top CAA team in those same ratings. They’ve won 10 of 12 (both losses by 5 pts or less) and are coming off a 36-point smashing of Elon last Saturday. While UNCW was in action Monday, Towson has been off for four days. The spot favors them, they are the better team and have revenge. What’s not to like? The Tigers are also 21-8 ATS L29 road games (10-2 this year). 10* Towson |