Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns -3 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:00 ET): As far as the NFL spectrum goes, you can't get any further apart than these two teams. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season. The Browns went 0-16. Yet, here we are in the preseason and Cleveland is favored. For what it's worth, the Browns did go 4-0 SU/ATS last year in the preseason. They are 1-1 SU/ATS this year. Philly has dropped both of its preseason games thus far, including a Super Bowl rematch w/ the Patriots last week. I took New England in that one, noting the likelihood that the Patriots would be the more motivated side (revenge!). I was clearly right as the Pats quickly raced out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back. They led by as much as 34-7 in the 2nd half en route to a 37-20 win and cover. This being the third week of the preseason, starters will see the most action of any of the four games. That means QB Nick Foles (hero of LY's Super Bowl) will play about a half for Philly. That would seem to give the visitors a significant advantage. But Foles injured his throwing shoulder last week, taking a hit, and did not return. Expect the Eagles' coaching staff to be extra cautious w/ Foles given the uncertain status of Carson Wentz, who will NOT play here and may or may not be ready for the start of the regular season. It's not like Foles was particularly effective when he was in there last week. He completed just 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards in his 2018 debut. Also, Foles will be missing a ton of key receivers and wideouts. Four running backs (Ajayi, Clement, Pumphrey and Sproles) are all out as are the top three WRs (Jeffrey, Agholor, Wheaton). The Browns are reportedly drawing some serious action from the betting public for the upcoming season, both in terms of exceeding their projected number of wins as winning the AFC North and Super Bowl. Hey, everybody loves a longshot. Maybe its being on Hard Knocks that's responsible for that. Obviously, this team is not going to win its division, let alone the Super Bowl, but they should be vastly improved. This is still preseason and I expect them to be the more motivated side Thursday night, especially playing at home. They're certainly more healthy compared to the Eagles. At QB, Tyrod Taylor (presumed Wk 1 starter) will play the bulk of the first half. But after he exits, expect #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield to come in and make plays. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
08-23-18 | Edmonton v. Hamilton -3 | Top | 24-25 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): This is a spot that the Ti-Cats simply must take advantage of. They're coming off a bye and hosting an Edmonton squad that is on a short week (just four days between games). Perhaps its that quick turnaround for the Eskimos that is responsible for the line shift. But also be aware that despite their 3-5 SU record, Hamilton has actually outscored its opponents in 2018. This is a squad that has been favored in every game but one so far, that one being its last game where they lost by six at Winnipeg. While they've fallen short of expectations so far, I have the Ti-Cats bouncing back in a major way Thursday night. Lay the points. Edmonton had no problem beating Montreal last Saturday, but who isn't blowing out the Als these days? The Eskimos actually failed to cover the spread in the 40-24 victory as they were lofty 19.5-pt favorites at home. They did rack up 536 yds of total offense, but again, take any stats w/ a "grain of salt" when they come at Montreal's expense. These teams met back in Week 2 w/ Hamilton prevailing 38-21 as 6.5-point road underdogs. There was nothing "phony" about that win either as the Ti-Cats came in and rolled up 528 yards of offense. Hamilton has suffered three losses by six points or less so far, so really this is a team that's played better than its record shows. As stated above, they are off a loss here, 29-23 to Winnipeg. But that was a road game. It was also two weeks ago. The schedule sure sets up nicely for a big Ti-Cats win tonight as their opponent is facing a tough spot w/ limited time to rest and practice in between games. Meanwhile, you have to figure Hamilton has had this game circled ever since losing to the Blue Bombers. They've actually dropped four of five, including two home games, so the level of motivation should be very high Thursday night. Since 2011, the Ti-Cats have 35 wins at home vs. just 24 on the road. They'll also be honoring CFL Hall of Famer Joe Montford at halftime, so emotions should be REALLY high here. The Ti-Cats are also 7-2 ATS following a SU loss. 10* Hamilton |
|||||||
08-23-18 | Braves v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 47 m | Show |
PLAY STILL VALID AFTER MIAMI PITCHING CHANGE! 8* Run Line Miami (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. Miami has revenge coming into this series as they were swept by Atlanta earlier this month. The Fish have really had their problems w/ the Braves in 2018, losing 12 of the 15 overall meetings including six straight. But here they are getting them at home and will face one of Atlanta's weaker starters. Just last night, the Marlins stunned the Yankees, winning 9-3. It was their third win in the last four games and the one loss came by one run. Atlanta looked good in its last series, sweeping the Pirates while allowing just two runs. But I don't see Miami doing any worse than a one-run loss in tonight's series opener. Play the RL. Sean Newcomb will be the Braves' starter in question tonight. As referenced above, he hasn't really pitched all that well lately. He comes in w/ a 7.63 ERA and 2.153 WHIP his L3 starts after getting hammered by Colorado last week. He lasted only 5 1/3 innings while giving up seven runs on nine hits. That was after allowing five runs on 12 hits (lasted just four innings) his previous start. Believe it or not, but the Braves had won four straight Newcomb starts before losing that last one. But prior to those four straight wins, they'd lost each of his previous five outings. Overall, things have been trending downward for Newcomb, who had a 5.06 ERA in July and is at 7.63 here in August. The Braves are also w/o their closer Aroyds Vizcaino right now due to shoulder inflammation. Miami will now send a rookie to the mound here in Elieser Hernandez. Originally, it was set to be Dan Straily. The change is probably for the best as Straily had really been struggling of late. Something to note here is that Miami is a far more competitive ballclub at home than on the road. Most of their losses to the Braves this year have been in Atlanta. Hernandez is making just his sixth start of the year here and first in nearly two months. He didn't pitch all that bad previously, allowing 2 ER or less in four of those first five starts. He's also worked as a reliever and has made four appearances against the Braves, posting a 1.13 ERA in eight innings. His work at home has generally been much better than on the road. In August, Hernandez has made six relief appearances and has a 2.00 ERA. Atlanta is 18-8 in one-run games this year, but playing the game on the RL nullifies that good fortune. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5) |
|||||||
08-22-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (12:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Orioles +1.5. Well, it's come down to this. Either the Orioles win today, or they get swept for a third straight time by the Blue Jays. They're 1-11 overall vs. Toronto this season and were swept here back in June and July. Getting swept by the same opponent two straight times is exceedingly rare. I can't remember the last time I saw it happen three times in a row. Recognizing that the O's aren't a good time, I'll again use the run line here to aid in the cause. Baltimore scored first on Monday, but still lost 5-3. Yesterday's game was close early, but then the Toronto bats exploded for four home runs, three of them coming in one inning. It was an 8-2 game by the end of the fifth and that ended up being the final score. Again, I fully understand that the Orioles aren't having a good season. But neither really is Toronto. This is the first time the Blue Jays will have won a home series since sweeping Baltimore last month. On paper, today seems like the O's best shot at victory. They'll face Thomas Pannone, who is making his first ever big league start. It's not like Pannone excelled in the starter's role down at Triple-A Buffalo either. He posted a 4.91 ERA in six starts. He appeared in nine games total "down on the farm," and didn't win any of them (5.36 ERA). At one point, Pannone had to serve an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's policy against performance-enhancing substances. He'll be opposed by David Hess, who made his own big-league debut back in May. He won two of his first three starts, but is 0-6 w/ a 6.61 ERA in 11 starts since. However, in one start against Toronto, Hess did pitch well. He gave up just one run (and five hits) in six innings of work. Despite their 10-0 home record against Baltimore this season, the Jays still have a losing home record overall and have been outscored here. Despite what's happened so far in the series, I think taking the run line remains the best option here. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) |
|||||||
08-21-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Orioles at +1.5. Last night saw them fall (again) to the Blue Jays and they're now 1-10 against their AL East rival in '18. It's been a miserable season overall in Baltimore where the team is now 51 games under .500, the worst record in all of baseball. Despite the lack of success against Toronto this season, or the general lack of success overall, I do believe the O's will show up and compete Tuesday. Expect them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. It's not like Toronto is a fearsome ballclub. They came into this series having just been swept by the Yankees over the weekend. Obviously, this particular division opponent sets up a lot nicer for them. That said, the team is still being outscored at home this year. Take away Baltimore and they're actually just 22-32 at Rogers Centre. Last night was a close game early (Orioles scored first), but the key was a four-run Toronto fifth, which broke the game open. Baltimore did end up outhitting Toronto ever so slightly, 8-7, but went 1 for 7 w/ RISP and left eight men on base. The O's are seeking to avoid what would be a third straight sweep at the hands of Toronto here. Getting swept twice in a row by the same opponent is fairly rare; three times is almost unheard of. I truly believe that Baltimore is going to win a game in this series. Tonight's pitching matchup features two struggling starters, opening up the possibility of Baltimore's offense being able to lead the way. They'll face Sam Gaviglio, who has just one victory all season (in 17 starts!) and it came all the way back on May 25th. The team has won just one of his last eight starts overall, against Baltimore ironically, but it was a one-run victory. That's a result we'll be just fine w/ here. Gaviglio has a 5.82 ERA and 1.676 WHIP his L7 starts and last time out surrendered five runs in just 4 1/3 innings - against Kansas City. Dylan Bundy goes for the Orioles and while his recent numbers are no better, his numbers over the course of the entire season are better than Gaviglio's. Bundy has actually been a better pitcher on the road this season. He also has a 2.27 ERA in nine career appearances vs. Toronto. 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) |
|||||||
08-20-18 | Orioles +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Orioles +1.5. Both of these teams were substantial underdogs on the money line and lost accordingly. In fact, they both went down by exactly eight runs. But the O's, at least on paper, should have more of a chance here in Toronto than they did in Cleveland over the weekend. Meanwhile, this is obviously a drop in class for the Blue Jays after being swept in New York. The last two series between these AL East rivals indicate a substantial edge for the Jays (both sweeps) and all of those games did take place here, "North of the Border." Overall, Toronto is 9-1 vs. Baltimore this season. But I feel the revenge-minded O's will do no worse than a one-run loss here. Play the run line. It's almost hard to fathom just how truly wretched this season has bee in Baltimore. They are currently 50.5 games out of first place as well as 50 games under .500! Believe it or not, they do NOT own MLB's worst run differential though. That belongs to Kansas City at -217. (Baltimore -191). But the O's are no better than the second worst team in all of baseball and are 16-46 on the road. But I like the revenge angle and the RL here. One of their losses in Cleveland over the weekend was by one run and they also won a game. They've also won the last two starts made by tonight's pitcher Andrew Cashner and both times Cashner turned in a quality outing. He's allowed just 3 ER, on nine hits, in 14 innings of work over that time. Cashner also owns a 1.93 ERA in three previous starts vs. Toronto this season. The Jays really came unraveled yday w/ manager John Gibbons getting ejected, but not before getting into it w/ his own CF Kevin Pillar, who got caught making the final out in the sixth by trying to steal. This is not a great team by any measure either and the fact that they're so prohibitively favored here opens up the rare opportunity to take an additional 1.5 runs and go against them. Starter Marco Estrada is of B2B rough outings where he allowed nine runs in 12 IP, including four home runs. It's difficult to continually sweep the same opponent. Twice in a row is pretty rare, but three straight times is almost unheard of. Baltimore will win a game in this series and note that five of their nine losses to Toronto this year have come by exactly one run. 8* Run Line Baltimore |
|||||||
08-18-18 | Bears +3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Chicago (9:05 ET): The Bears are a team w/ a 1st year head coach (Matt Nagy) that has yet to taste its first victory of the preseason. They've played twice mind you, losing both games close. They covered for me in the Hall of Fame Game, losing 17-16 as underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens. They followed that up LW w/ a 30-27 loss at Cincinnati. Unlike the Ravens game where they scored late to "steal" the cover, that loss to the Bengals saw them ALLOW a late TD to blow the lead and cover and they left w/ no cash in what closed as a pick 'em game. I fully expect the Monsters of the Midway to want to win this week's game for their new HC and it should come easy against a Denver team that was absolutely shredded last week in a 42-28 home loss to Minnesota. Take the points. Last season was the first on the job for Denver HC Vance Joesph. He went 4-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, but that did not translate to the regular season where the team finished a very disappointing 5-11 SU. The defense isn't what it once was and the offense had (has?) a hole at the most important position (quarterback). To address that issue, Case Keenum was brought in to be the starter. But in limited action LW, he was able to complete just 1 of 4 passes for five yards. Behind him is Paxton Lynch, who is quickly turning into a major bust, and Chad Kelly. Kelly was a surprise last week, throwing for two TD passes and 177 yards against the Vikings backups. But I wouldn't expect a repeat performance of that. Then there is the Broncos' defense, which gave up 24 pts in the first half and 400 yds for the game. I'm not a big Joseph fan and wouldn't be surprised to see him gone at the end of this season. Now the Bears certainly have things to work on themselves here, namely turnovers. They have 7 TO's so far, but the good news is that that's correctable. Their own defense gave up 447 yds, but the offense gained 423 of its own. Starters will play deeper into the first half here. Most of the key offensive weapons saw very limited or no time last week, but that'll change here w/ Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson all suiting up. Having an extra game under their belt at this point will help the Bears here. 10* Chicago |
|||||||
08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams | Top | 15-19 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:00 ET): We've seen some substantial line movement here, which - at least so far this preseason - has typically been a sign to "follow the money." One could certainly argue that the Rams will want to atone for an ugly showing in the first week of the preseason where they were routed by the Ravens 33-7. But there's yet to be any real indication that the Rams are taking the preseason very seriously. This is a team w/ a clear eye on the regular season and making the playoffs. Their activity in the offseason puts them on a short list of Super Bowl contenders for some. But there has been some turmoil, namely the Aaron Donald holdout. HC Sean McVay held out most of his starters in Week 1 and has vowed to do the same here. Meanwhile, the Raiders are operating under a 1st year HC (Jon Gruden), thus they will be more inclined to be motivated. They did win their preseason opener, at home, 16-10 over the Lions. Now, both coaches have publicly stated that they'd rather NOT play this game considering the teams will open the regular season opener against each other on Monday Night Football. So you can expect some pretty vanilla game plans. Again though, that nullifies that talent edge that the Rams have, at least when at full strength. Withe the Raiders coming off a disappointing 2017 season (went 6-10 SU), they've got more question marks and thus position battles where individual players are competing for spots on the roster. It might not be until late in the game, but eventually it will become apparent that the Raiders are the more motivated side here. Oakland's defense held Detroit to just 227 total yards last week, so I wouldn't expect them to be a problem against a Rams' offense that probably won't show anything. Rams' QB Sean Mannion looked terrible last week against Baltimore, completing only 3 of 13 pass attempts for 16 yards. Brandon Allen did better, but still threw for only 73 yards. Again, Jared Goff is almost a lock NOT to play. For the Raiders, Derek Carr did take some snaps LW and I'll take his backups - Connor Cook and EJ Manuel - over what Los Angeles has to offer. 8* Oakland |
|||||||
08-17-18 | Giants v. Lions -3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:00 ET): Both of these teams have first year head coaches and both dropped their respective preseason opener. In the case of the Giants, now led by Pat Shurmur, they lost 20-10 at home to the Cleveland Browns (a team Shurmur formerly coached). Matt Patricia's Detroit Lions lost their opener 16-10 at Oakland. Can you believe its only been two years since BOTH of these teams were in playoffs? Me either. The Giants fell harder last year as an injury-riddled team basically quit on Ben McAdoo and finished 3-13 SU. The Lions were 9-7 SU and actually finished w/ a better point differential (+34) than they did in their 2017 season playoff season. But it still wasn't enough to save Jim Caldwell's job. Bottom line here is I expect Patricia and his coaching staff to be highly motivated to win the first time in front of the fanbase. The lone highlight for the Giants in that first preseason game may have been the performance of #2 overall draft choice, RB Saquon Barkley. He went for 39 yards on his first carry. Sadly though, it's highly unlikely he'll be seeing any time in this game. Barkley suffered what is being termed a "minor hamstring injury" and did not participate in the joint practices w/ the Lions this week. At QB, Eli Manning is at the point in his career where the preseason is fairly useless. That leaves an underwhelming trio of signal-callers for Shurmer to rely on here. Last week saw Davis Webb, Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta combine for 167 passing yards on 38 attempts. Hardly inspiring. The G-Men were 4 of 17 on third down last week as well. Detroit was hardly impressive in Patricia's debut. They too scored 10 pts and gained just 227 total yards (3.5 yards per play). They were 3 of 14 on third downs and neither QB - Jake Rudock or Matt Cassel - attempted to throw the ball downfield much. Like I said earlier though, the determining factor here should be the homefield advantage as Patricia looks to win over the fanbase. One interesting stat is that the Lions are 11-1 SU their last 12 preseason home games, covering the spread nine times. I fully expect them to "play to win the game" Friday night. 10* Detroit |
|||||||
08-16-18 | Steelers v. Packers -5.5 | Top | 34-51 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:00 ET): It's been a rather traumatizing week in Steelers camp w/ Ben Roethlisberger getting knocked down in practice and ending up in the league's concussion protocol. Thus, I have to believe the team is just going to want to "get through" this Week 2 preseason game in Green Bay. Taking advantage of three Eagles turnovers, the Steelers won their first preseason game, 31-14. I do not anticipate they'll be as fortunate this week. Lay the points. QB Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here (will likely play for just a few series) for the Packers. But even if he leads the offense to a score or two, it will be more than worth it. Rodgers has made headlines by ripping his young receiving corps for what he perceived as some "sloppy" practices. So expect that group to be motivated Thursday night. One thing is for certain and that's Green Bay had no problems racking up yardage on offense in the first preseason game. They ended up w/ 445 in a 31-17 win and cover over the Titans. Overall, they had three TD drives of 75+ yards. Behind Rodgers will be Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer, both of whom have started regular season games last year. Both should be able to move the ball against the Steelers' backups. The Packers are one of the teams that seem to take the preseason fairly seriously. They've won seven of their last nine overall, scoring 20 or more pts in four of the last five. They've also been particularly strong at home where they've won eight of nine in preseason play, including six straight. Meanwhile, I just can't see the Steelers taking this one too seriously. (Remember, there's no LeVeon Bell either). It's been a tough week of camp w/ multiple injury scares. Do not be surprised is Pittsburgh ends up being a bit of a disappointment this season. 8* Green Bay |
|||||||
08-16-18 | Eagles v. Patriots -3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
10* New England (7:30 ET): Think there might be some motivation from the favorite here? Even Tom Brady is likely to see time in this one as the Patriots look to exact a little bit of revenge here against the Eagles. Granted no matter what takes place Thursday night, it cannot erase the memory of what happened to the Patriots last February in Super Bowl 52. That was the rare instance of a Bill Belichick team seemingly being outplayed and outcoached. Preseason or not, if you don't think the New England coaching staff wants to win this one, you're kidding yourself. The Super Bowl Champion Eagles committed three turnovers in a 31-14 loss to the Steelers last week. They looked anything but the part of defending Super Bowl Champs, but it was just the 1st preseason game. Perhaps the only interesting thing that they did was attempt a two-point conversion after each touchdown (went 1 for 2). Neither of Philadelphia's top two quarterbacks - Carson Wentz or Nick Foles - took a snap. Since Wentz has yet to be cleared for contact, he's unlikely to play at all in the preseason. Foles, who is battling neck spasms, will start. But HC Doug Pederson will probably have Foles on a short leash. Only one starting receiver will see time and that's newcomer Mike Wallace. The first team defense was the bright spot LW vs. the Steelers, but won't be out there long either. Again, I feel this one comes down to simple motivation. Under Belichick, New England has been driven by spite and any measure of revenge they can exact on the Eagles - no matter how small - is something worth going for. Consider that even though they fell behind by double digits last week, the Patriots rallied back to win and cover against Washington, 26-17 as 2.5-pt chalk. As far as "wanting to win the game" goes, the Pats outscored the Redskins last week 23-0 in the second half. They clearly were playing to win. If that's the case, you can only imagine the mindset entering this one. 10* New England |
|||||||
08-14-18 | White Sox +1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. It hasn't been a very good 2018 for the Tigers, but they've certainly had their way w/ the Sox, going 9-1 head to head against them. That includes a 9-5 win last night where they rallied back from an early three-run deficit and really beat up on the White Sox bullpen. Key was having Nicholas Castellanos back in the lineup (missed Sunday's Game) as he continued his torrid hittting against Chicago pitching w/ a career-high five hits. Interesting though is that of the nine wins this year against Chicago, last night was just the third by more than two runs for the Tigers. Tonight, I expect the underdog to do no worse than a one-run loss. Looking at these two clubs as a whole, I would not say that Detroit is so significantly better that they should be dominating to this degree. The White Sox probably should have been up even more last night, but ended up going just 2 for 9 w/ RISP. "We had more opportunities to add on runs, but we left them out there," manager Rick Renteria said. While another loss means little in the big picture, the White Sox have to be sick of losing to the Tigers at this point. Tonight, Renteria hands the baseball to Lucas Giolito, who was once thought of as a top prospect in the organization. He hasn't necessarily panned out that way (largely due to control issues), but the team is basically .500 (11-12) in his 23 starts. He was roughed up his last time out, but that was against the Yankees. Detroit's offense is nothing like what he faced there. In fact, the Tigers average fewer runs per game than do the White Sox. Given Detroit's success in the season series, it should not be that big of a surprise to find that tonight's starter Blaine Hardy is 2-0 against the White Sox in '18. He allowed just one run in both starts. However, he allowed five his last time out in what ended up being a 6-0 loss to the Angels. The Tigers have actually "forgotten to score" (i.e. shutout) in each of Hardy's last two starts. It's rare to find Detroit favored like this on the money line, which thus opened up the RL and I'll gladly take the +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) |
|||||||
08-13-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Monday's starter Jacob deGrom is having himself one of the unluckiest seasons in recent memory. Despite posting the lowest ERA (1.77) among all qualified starters, not to mention ranking 2nd in WHIP among all NL starters, deGrom's team start record this year is just 9-14. That's owed to lousy run support, but armed w/ an additional 1.5 runs, the run line could change that for him tonight. deGrom has made 15 consecutive quality starts heading into Monday night where the Mets will meet the Yankees in a makeup game. Note that he was set to start the rained out game, back on June 22nd, so the Yankees can run, but they can't hide from deGrom here. The Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss Monday night, thanks to their starting pitcher. I had the Mets Sunday as they beat the Marlins 4-3. They actually come into this make-up date having won three of four, albeit at the expense of the Reds and Marlins. But deGrom gives them a chance against anybody, even the mighty Yankees. In his last start, deGrom would not be denied as he tossed eight scoreless innings w/ 10 strikeouts. The Mets actually won, 8-0. Incredibly, that was just the third time the team scored more than three runs in a deGrom start, dating all the way back to the start of May! Interesting though is that deGrom is rarely an underdog on the money line. Because he is here, it opens the possibility of the RL. Five times this season the Mets have lost a deGrom start by one run. It is incredible that there have been six times where deGrom has pitched 8+ innings this season and NOT gotten the win. That just doesn't happen very often. The Yankees will also be sending their ace to the bump Monday night. Luis Severino has a 19-5 TSR as he typically enjoys far greater run support than what deGrom gets. That said, while Severino had a great 1st half to the season, he hasn't looked like the same pitcher since the All-Star Break. The team has dropped three of his last four starts and twice he allowed at least 6 ER while lasting five innings or less. The Mets' offense isn't anything special, but remember they'll open this game "up 1.5 runs" for us. The price on deGrom +1.5 runs is simply too tempting to pass up! 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) |
|||||||
08-11-18 | Chargers v. Cardinals -2.5 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
10* Arizona (10:00 ET): We've got a first year HC for Arizona (Steven Wilks), so that should lead to added motivation for the home side Saturday night in the desert. Meanwhile, as per usual, the Chargers appear cursed. We're not even halfway through August and already three players have been lost for the year to ACL injuries. Two were expected to be key contributors, those being TE Hunter Henry and DB Jason Verrett. I still think Los Angeles can compete for an AFC West Championship in the regular season, but clearly they're going to want to error on the side of caution here in the preseason opener. I'll lay the short number w/ what should be the more motivated side, which is looking to win for its new HC the first time he's in front of the fanbase. The Lightning Bolts are just 2-6 SU and ATS in the preseason the last two years. Their only win a year ago came in the "dress rehearsal" game (Week 3) where starters saw extended time. I simply cannot imagine QB Philip Rivers will play much, if at all, in this game. His two backups are Geno Smith and Cardale Jones. Yikes! Neither is inspiring at this time in their respective careers. On the defensive side of the ball, last year HC Anthony Lynn elected to play his starters about a quarter in the first preseason game. Maybe that holds true again Saturday, but it's highly unlikely we'll see Joey Bosa after he didn't practice this week due to a sore foot. The Chargers' special teams, particularly the kicking game, are always an adventure. For the Cardinals, the big story is going to be rookie QB Josh Rosen. Expect him to play a lot here. Rosen has a chip on his shoulder after not being drafted as high as he thought he should be. Personally, I felt Rosen was the most "NFL ready" signal caller in the Draft. I can see him playing quite well Saturday night even though it's his first professional game. That could make for an interesting 1st major decision for HC Wilks as it's believed Sam Bradford will enter the regular season as the starter. Maybe that's the way it ends up being, but Rosen isn't going to sit back and allow the decision to be an easy one. By all accounts, Rosen is grasping the offense well in practice. The vanilla schemes the Chargers' D is likely to offer him here will not be difficult to take advantage of. 10* Arizona |
|||||||
08-10-18 | Hamilton v. Winnipeg -5 | Top | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 81 h 6 m | Show |
10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): Last week, Hamilton made for one of the easiest bets in my life as I cashed them as seven-point road favorites at Montreal. They won 50-11, completely outclassing the Als (led 41-3 at half!) and their embarrassment of a QB, Johnny Manziel. The idea that a QB that had just come to a team (the worst one in the league, no less!) two weeks prior and would be thrust into the starting position was laughable. So, clearly any assignment from here on out will be tougher for the Ti-Cats. This one in particular is going to be a challenge as they have to visit Winnipeg to play a rested Bombers team that's also off a big win. I'll lay the points Friday night. Winnipeg is off a home and home sweep of Toronto, winning 38-20 on the road, then 40-14 at home. Two of the team's three losses this year have come by just a field goal. Their four wins have come by an average of 30.5 points per game. Obviously that average will start to come down eventually. But, tonight I look for the rested Blue Bombers to come out quite motivated. They're looking to avenge their largest defeat of the season, which came at Hamilton, 31-17 back in Week 3. But that game saw them play w/o the services of QB Matt Nichols, who is now back in the fold. This is going to be a much better team than the one that faced the Ti-Cats last month. Four first half interceptions of Manziel quickly turned last week's game into a joke for Hamilton. They actually led 28-0 after 15 minutes, which is the largest lead for ANY TEAM IN CFL HISTORY after the 1st quarter! That much-needed win snapped a three-game losing skid, all of which came as favorites. Tonight marks the first time since Week 2 that the Ti-Cats will be underdogs. While that might make it seem like there's some value, I think it also speaks to the respect commanded by the Bombers when at full strength. Only unbeaten Calgary has outscored its opposition by a wider margin so far this season. With a rested home team looking for revenge, Hamilton is going to find things much more difficult Friday night. 10* Winnipeg |
|||||||
08-10-18 | Falcons v. Jets -2.5 | Top | 0-17 | Win | 100 | 80 h 6 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (7:30 ET): The Jets aren't expected to be very good this year. Quite frankly, no one - save for the Patriots obviously - is going to be very good in that division (AFC East) in 2018. But that won't matter here in the preseason where it will be more about backups and position battles as opposed to the overall level of talent on the teams. The Flyboys open their preseason at home tonight against the Falcons, a team that typically doesn't take the preseason very seriously. Two years removed from the Super Bowl, Atlanta should be formidable in the regular season. They know who their "horses" are, but that works to their disadvantage here. Lay the points. I am a little surprised that the Falcons are expected to play some of their regulars for as much as a full quarter tonight. This is includes QB Matt Ryan. But it won't include WR Julio Jones. On the other side of the ball, the first string defense is not expected to see extended playing time. It may just be the first set of downs. Even if Atlanta was to get off to a nice start w/ Ryan under center tonight, don't expect them to hold the lead or do much after he exits. Last year saw the Falcons go 0-4 SU in the preseason, scoring 14 pts or less in three of the games. The key here is going to be a motivated Jets side taking control in the second half. Unlike Atlanta, NY doesn't know who its starting QB will be in Week 1 of the regular season. They have rookie Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater and veteran Josh McCown as their options. Of the three, Bridgewater (coming off major injury) is the one LEAST likely to earn the job. But all three will see time Friday and they'll each want to show the coaching staff what they can bring to the table. The rookie Darnold is the most intriguing player to watch here. HC Todd Bowles enters this season firmly on "the hot seat" and would probably like nothing more than to start the year out w/ a victory. Look for the Jets to "play to the end" and cover the spread here. 10* NY Jets |
|||||||
08-10-18 | Rays v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. It's also a revenge spot for Canada's lone pro baseball franchise. Back in June, they were swept down in Tampa Bay at a time where the Rays were about to go on a run. The Rays would actually drop the next three games (to the Yankees), but then would go onto win 16 of the next 22 games. The streak hardly mattered though; they're only barely above .500 right now and the front office elected to be "sellers" at the trade deadline, rather than double down on a possible playoff push. Toronto is 5.5 games back of TB in the AL East and though they're the inferior team on paper, I'm willing to say they do no worse than a one-run defeat here at home. A big key for the Blue Jays this weekend is getting the Rays "north of the border." Granted, the Jays aren't a dominant home team by any means (just 28-30). But it's that the Rays are significantly worse on the road. Their record away from home is just 24-33 while it's 34-24 at Tropicana Field. But the recently completed homestand hardly went well for the Rays as they ended up dropping four of the last six games and those came against the Orioles and White Sox, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. You don't see Tampa Bay favored on the money line away from home that much. It works to our advantage here by opening up the chance to play the run line. Sweeping the same opponent twice in a row is hard to do, especially if it's a division rival. This series will be a drop in class for Toronto as they just got done hosting Boston. They won just one of the three games, that lone win coming last night. Offensively, the team has averaged 6.0 rpg over the last week while batting a collective .303. They'll send Marco Estrada to the hill tonight and he's fresh off allowing just one run over seven innings in his last start (a 5-1 win over Seattle as a +215 ML underdog!). Blake Snell starts here for the Rays and while he's had a fine 2018 season, he's not the same pitcher on the road (mirroring the play of the team as a whole). While Snell is 6-1 w/ a 0.97 ERA in nine home starts, he's just 6-4 w/ a 3.34 ERA. His WHIP over the L3 starts is 1.535 as there have been control issues (eight walks). He'd spent some time on the DL prior to his last outing, which saw him last just four innings. There may be a "quick hook" if he struggles again tonight. Note that the Rays' last six games have all been decided by exactly one run. Either way, that's a result we'll take this evening. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5) |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Colts +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
8* Indianapolis (10:00 ET): The big story for this game is that Colts QB Andrew Luck is expected to play, perhaps for as long as a full quarter. That's obviously pretty rare - for a starter of his caliber - to play so long in the first preseason game. But this is a special circumstance. Luck has not played in a NFL game in 20 months. His amount of throwing has gradually increased as training camp has progressed. Without question, Luck's shoulder is the biggest key to the Colts' 2018 season. Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back from a horrific season where they went 4-12 SU and were outscored by 141 pts, the third worst differential in the entire luck. Presuming Luck is back in the fold, an increase in the number of wins is all but assured in '18. But the rest of the roster is full w/ holes and question marks. It also simply isn't that talent-rich. But what we'll be getting Thursday night is a lot of position battles (and thus a high level of effort) for a new coaching staff, led by Frank Reich. Another reason you can probably expect the Colts to win more games this year - they blew a NFL-high seven 2nd half leads. That's actually the third most in one year by any team since the AFL-NFL merger. It's also highly unlikely to be repeated. Meanwhile, it's a very different Seahawks team in 2018 than what we're used to seeing. The Legion of Boom was disassembled (only Earl Thomas remains) and this is now very much QB Russell Wilson's team. Problem is, like Luck, he's no longer surrounded by a lot of talent. Here, WR Doug Baldwin won't play due to a knee injury. Another veteran wideout, Brandon Marshall, may not play either. The offensive line, long the weak spot of this team, is learning a new scheme. On the other side of the ball, the secondary has to break in three new starters and the front seven is already down two starters. For years, Seattle has been great in the preseason, under HC Pete Carroll. They went 4-0 SU/ATS last year. But this is a much different team, one where the odds are shorter that they WON'T make the playoffs than they will. 8* Indianapolis. |
|||||||
08-09-18 | Panthers v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 31 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): This past offseason should have been a time to rejoice in upstate New York. Last season saw the Bills end what had been the longest playoff drought in league (dated back to 1999). Granted, the playoff game didn't go so well. It was an ugly 10-3 loss to Jacksonville, but the bottom line is the Bills should have felt fortunate to even be there. This was a team that had been outscored by 57 pts in the regular season and did not do well against teams w/ winning records. The goodwill from that first playoff appearance in two decades has quickly disappaited w/ the front office deciding to shed salary, leaving a roster that's clearly inferior to last year's team. Perhaps one of the more notable changes occurred at QB where Tyrod Taylor was jettisoned. It never seemed like the coaching staff liked Taylor and they now have three potential choices to replace him. None are particularly attractive as you have AJ McCarron (career backup), Nathan Peterman (complete disaster LY) and Josh Allen (a rookie w/ questionable potential). The irony though is this uncertainty at the most important position actually works to the Bills' BENEFIT here in the preseason opener. All three signal-callers are likely to see time Thursday and should be motivated. Having motivated signal-callers on the field for the majority of the game is always something to look for when handicapping the NFL preseason. Carolina is another playoff team from last year that I expect to take a step backwards in 2018. They were fortunate to go 11-5 SU as they were 7-1 in one-score games. The big difference, at least for this game, between them and Buffalo is the key question of motivation. The Panthers are far more likely to be content w/ "what they have." They probably aren't as aware of the pitfalls that await them this season. They pretty much bring back the same roster, led by QB Cam Newton, who isn't going to play much here (if at all). There is the question of depth at running back w/ Jonathan Stewart gone. The small-ish Christian McCaffery simply isn't built to be an "every-down" back in this league, if such a thing even still exists anyway. Another issue facing the Panthers here is they've suffered multiple injuries along the offensive line in camp. They aren't going to want to risk further depth issues. Therefore, you're likely to see an overwhelmed third string OL much of the time Thursday. That means trouble. Lay the short number w/ the more motivated team that's playing at home. 10* Buffalo |
|||||||
08-03-18 | Hamilton -7 v. Montreal | Top | 50-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
8* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Montreal is - quite easily - the worst team in the entire CFL. They've won just one time all season and that was back in Week 3 as 11-pt dogs at Saskatchewan. They've been outscored by 100 pts in six games overall and things have gotten so dire here that the team has decided to bring in Johnny Football as their new starting QB. Ironically, it was tonight's opponent that originally had Manziel's rights before trading him to the Als just a couple weeks ago. Obviously, there will be a lot of hype surrounding this game, but that works to our advantage as Montreal is being WAY overvalued in this spot. Manziel has not played pro football - of any kind - since 2015 and will be starting here just two weeks after coming to Montreal. Lay the points. Also helping to undervalue the favorite here is the fact Hamilton is off three consecutive outright defeats. Two were against Saskatchewan (home and home) and the other last week, 21-15 to Ottawa. In the case of the last two losses, turnovers have killed the Ti-Cats as they're -4 in that department. The team is now 2-4 SU on the year (w/ wins over Edmonton and Winnipeg), yet has been outscored by just five points. They absolutely hammered Montreal in both meetings last year, winning by a combined score of 76-16. Granted they lost the game outright, but the fact the Ti-Cats were six-point favorites at Saskatchewan just last month makes them look like a "real steal" by comparison here. The last five QB's to make their CFL debuts have all lost. So that's what Manziel is up against here. He will be the fourth different starting QB for the Als in the last four games, something we have not seen from any CFL team this century. I just can't see him playing all that well. Rather, this is a desperate act by a bad team playing at home and looking to boost attendance. Again, the Als are without question the worst team in the league this year and the gap is significant between them and the rest of the field. They are very likely to go all season w/o being favored in a single game. Getting a full TD at home sounds like a value, but not when you're this bad. Consider they've gotten 8.5 or more pts from the oddsmakers in all but one game this season and are being outscored by 16.7 PPG. 8* Hamilton |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Saskatchewan +7 v. Edmonton | Top | 19-26 | Push | 0 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
8* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): After sweeping a home and home w/ Hamilton (were underdogs in both games), the Rough Riders lost at home to Calgary last week, 34-22 as 7.5-pt dogs. Even though they didn't cover, there's no shame in that result, given that they were up against - easily - the best team in the league. This week finds them smack dab in the middle of a Stampeders' sandwich as they'll again face Calgary in Regina next week. They'll certainly have more time to prepare for that rematch (16 days) than they do here vs. Edmonton as it'll be just four days in between games for the Riders when they take the field Thursday night. Tough as that may sound, the points are plentiful here and the team is 3-1 ATS as a dog TY w/ three outright wins. Edmonton is 4-2 SU (2-4 ATS) and has a claim to be CFL's second best team. They hammered lowly Montreal last week, 44-23, as 10.5-pt road chalk. That game took place on Thursday, so it's a full week off for the Eskimoes. But after dominating the Als so thoroughly (outgained them 513-303), might this be a bit of a letdown spot for the home team? I certainly think that could be the case. Last week was also just the second time that the Eskimoes covered the spread. Two of their four wins have been by three points or less. While their defense remains one of the league's best, they are allowing a virtually identical number of points per game to Saskatchewan. I'm not sure the offense is prolific enough to make up the difference required to cover the spread. The Riders are also getting back two key contributors for this game, one on each side of the ball. QB Zach Collaros is expected to make his season debut Thursday night and that obviously makes the offense a whole lot more dynamic. Originally, Collaros wasn't going to return to Week 10, so this early return is a key bonus. He's the bigger of the two returns, but DB Nick Marshall should definitely help on the other side of the ball as well. Plus, Marshall being back means Duron Carter is back to being a slot receiver. While the number of PPG allowed are nearly identical from the two defenses here, Saskatchewan allows fewer YPG and I believe will have the edge at the LOS. They like to the run the ball on offense and can exploit a poor Edmonton run defense. In a divisional matchup like this, my view is that a spread like this is simply too high. Edmonton is just 7-15 ATS its L22 home games while Saskatchewan is 8-2 SU/ATS following a loss. 8* Saskatchewan |
|||||||
08-02-18 | Bears +2.5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:00 ET): I can only assume that it is Baltimore's "preseason reputation" that is responsible for the early line move in this year's Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Under HC John Harbaugh, the Ravens have gone a remarkable 28-12 SU in the preseason including a perfect 4-0 three of the last four seasons. Not only that, but they were also a perfect 4-0 ATS last season (also 4-0 SU). Given that preseason lines are generally short, the ATS record (27-13) isn't that much different than the SU mark. When it comes to handicapping the preseason, so much comes down to the simple question of motivation. Obviously, Harbaugh's teams have proven to consistently have that edge over their opponents this time of year. But, for this game, I expect it to be the Bears that come out as the more motivated side. This is their first game under new HC Matt Nagy and I'm taking the points. I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season. Minnesota and Green Bay are the obvious favorites, but don't be surprised if the Monsters of the Midway make it three playoff teams from the old "Black & Blue" division. Nagy's expertise is on the offensive side of the ball (comes over from the Chiefs where he was OC) and will be expected to tutor second year QB Mitchell Trubisky, who has a bevy of new weapons this year. The front office went out and added the following receivers via FA: Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel & (tight end) Trey Burton. For the defensive side of the ball, Nagy made a smart move and retained DC Vic Fangio, the one thing worth keeping from the failed Jox Fox regime. The Bears actually had a good defense LY as they ranked in the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. Baltimore is obviously the more "known commodity" here, but that could lead to complacency. Despite still being buried by the albatross that is Joe Flacco's contract, the Ravens are thinking playoffs for 2018, which will be GM Ozzie Newsome's final season at the helm. I seriously doubt Flacco will play much here, if at all. That leaves the reigns to rookie Lamar Jackson, a former Heisman winner that is still learning the playbook, and Robert Griffin III, who was out of football entirely last year. That's hardly inspiring. Trubisky is certainly more likely to play than is Flacco and so are some of the Bears' starters. You have to think they'll want to impress their new HC and as underdogs, I'll gladly take them. 8* Chicago |
|||||||
08-01-18 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. A's | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -170 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I'm taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto is on the verge of being swept for a second time by Oakland this season. They lost all four games at home earlier in the year (May) and have gone 0 for 2 here in Oakland this weekend, losing by scores of 10-1 and 6-2. While the A's seem to be surging towards a possible Wild Card, they've definitely overachieved some, as they've got the run differential of a 60-win team (actual reecord is 63-46), although nowhere to the degree that the team they're chasing (Seattle) has. That little bit of overachieving can be directly tied to a fortunate 19-9 record in one-run games. We're "shielded" from that particular result here and though the Jays definitely are the inferior ballclub here, I don't think their YTD record vs. the A's is properly reflective of the difference between the two teams. Getting swept by the same opponent twice is pretty rare. Take the +1.5. Marcus Stroman starts today for Toronto and should play a significant role in the Jays doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Stroman is off B2B solid starts where he's allowed just three runs in 13+ IP. Granted, those two starts came against the White Sox and Orioles, two of the very worst teams in all of baseball. But save for one head-scratching start against the Mets on the Fourth of July, Stroman has been pretty good overall since returning from the DL back in late June. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five of the seven starts. Something to remember w/ this opponent (Oakland) is that they are strangely inferior at the plate when here at home compared to on the road. For the season, the A's are averaging just 3.9 rpg in Oakland (.227 BA). They lead all of MLB in scoring on the road at 5.5 rpg. Stroman is the best starter Toronto will send to the mound in this series, so perhaps he's the one that can finally take advantage of the A's hitters not being as prolific here by the Bay. As for Oakland, they counter w/ Sean Manaea, who likes pitching here at home (0.818 WHIP). However, his results haven't been that great as he's just 3-4 in 10 starts (6-4 TSR). Getting back to the Oakland offense, remember that they only scored four runs this past weekend in three games at Coors Field. The A's have actually been outscored here at home this season and w/ the line currently doing some "curious things," I'll side w/ the road team +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5) |
|||||||
07-30-18 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. A's | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -145 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Oakland got a "cold dose" of reality over the weekend as they got swept out in Colorado. Despite playing in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field AND being the highest scoring road team in all of MLB, they managed all of four runs in the entire three-game series. Now, upon their return home, I feel it will be a cold dose of another "r" word, that being revenge. Toronto has it, stemming from a four-game sweep that occurred North of the Border all the way back in May. You don't see that happen too often (a home team getting swept in a four-game series), so the Jays will come in highly motivated. They do no worse than a one-run loss here. While Oakland was getting swept in Colorado, Toronto took two of three from the lowly White Sox over the weekend. Now, they were very close to losing the series and dropping B2B games on Sunday. But they scored five runs in the top of the ninth for the 7-4 win. Overall, it was a good weekend for the offense, as they tallied 22 runs against White Sox pitching. They did lose rookie Lourdes Gurriel Jr to an ankle injury, but should be just fine here against A's starter Edwin Jackson, who has slipped recently w/ 5.21 ERA his L3 starts. Though the team still won (6-5 over Texas), Jackson is off his worst start of the season, having allowed five runs in 4 1/3 innings. Another thing that should concern Oakland is their somewhat massive offensive decline at home. While they lead all of MLB in runs scored on the road (5.6 per game), they drop all the way down to a mystifying 3.7 rpg at home w/ a .224 batting average. That should be "music to the ears" of Jays' starter Marco Estrada, who comes off the DL here to start for the first time in almost a month. Normally, I might consider that a time to fade, but we're getting an additional 1.5 runs to work w/ here and Estrada threw a quality start against Oakland earlier this year. It was a hard-luck loss to be sure as Estrada allowed just three runs and seven hits in 6 2/3 innings and finished w/ a 6-0 KW ratio. But he was supported w/ only one run. I'll call for more offense tonight from Toronto and Estrada to take care of the rest. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5) |
|||||||
07-29-18 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (1:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Braves at +1.5. With the Phillies losing each of the last two days, there was a great opportunity for Atlanta to make a move in the NL East. Alas, the opportunity has been wasted. Entering Sunday, the Braves will simply be looking to avoid getting swept by the red-hot Dodgers here at SunTrust Park. To call the last three days "disappointing" would be putting it mildly as the home team has been outscored 17-4 (facing Rich Hill, Clayton Kershaw and Alex Wood). Such a performance from Atlanta here at home is quite rare. Fortunately for them, the old handicapping mentality of a four-game sweep at home being rare applies here. I'll say they do no worse than a one-run loss this afternoon. Now, it's quite obvious that beating the Dodgers is no small feat. There was a time early in the season when LA was dead last in MLB in net units. But they've turned it around and now seized control of the NL West thanks to winning 43 of their last 63 games. That said, not only are four game sweeps as the road team rare, so too has been sweeping the Braves. The last time the Dodgers swept the Braves in a four-game series was 1990! Ross Stripling will the starter tasked w/ the job and while he's generally pitched well this season, he's coming off an outing where he allowed five runs in 4 2/3 innings. Considering he allowed 3 HR's, the Dodgers should feel fortunate that they were still able to win that game (7-6 over the Phillies). The team is 4-0 in Stripling starts in July, but he's allowed 4+ ER in two of those. The Braves have now dropped 13 of 18, thanks to a pretty severe offensive decline. In addition to scoring only four runs in this series, they've averaged just 2.2 rpg those L18 games. But, for most of the season, they've been near the top of the league in scoring at home. So, it's just a matter of time before they starting swinging the bats better. I'm also encouraged by the way today's starter Sean Newcomb pitched his last time out. Granted, the offense showed up that day (Braves won 12-1), but Newcomb allowed just one run - on a solo HR - over six strong innings. The team had dropped his last five starts previous to that, but he's still 9-5 in 20 starts w/ a 3.41 ERA and 1.279 WHIP. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) |
|||||||
07-26-18 | A's v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line Texas (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This is the finale of a four-game set in which the home team has yet to win. Yes, Oakland has been a hot team of late. But they've also had a bit of lady luck riding on their shoulders. Take last night, for example, as they rallied for two runs in the top of the ninth to win 6-5. That was after a 10-inning win Tuesday where they came back from a 10-2 deficit. While they've won five straight, three of those victories have come in extra innings. Given that luck, I've decided that the RL is our best option here. Three of those five straight A's victories have come by exactly one run. I'll say Texas does no worse than a one-run loss here as they look to avoid getting swept (home teams rarely get swept in a four-game series). Bartolo Colon will get the baseball for the Rangers tonight as the rotund righty looks to reverse a recent poor stretch. He's 0-3 his L3 starts w/ a 5.30 ERA. But the thing is, he's been no worse than Oakland starter Trevor Cahill, whose ERA in his L3 starts is 5.14. Cahill also has a slightly higher WHIP in his last three turns. Cahill has the much better overall ERA and WHIP, but not on the road where those numbers are 5.92 and 1.315. He's winless in five road starts and has actually won only one decision in 10 starts total this season (1-2 WL Record). Colon has pitched well against the A's, one of his many former teams, this year and throughout his career. He's 10-6 all-time against them w/ a 3.34 ERA (22 starts). That includes two solid showings here in '18 where he's allowed a total of just three runs in 11 innings of work. Truthfully, the Texas pitching staff has not done a very good job in this series, but maybe that shouldn't be all that surprising when you consider Oakland is the highest scoring road team in all of MLB. But what is surprising is that the A's are only 18-26 vs. the rest of the AL West this season. They are 7-5 vs. the Rangers, but as detailed above, there's been some great fortune along the way. Right now, Oakland is outperforming its run differential, which says they should have closer to 56 wins, rather than the 60 they actually have. They're also pretty lucky to be 18-8 in one-run games. Playing tonight's game the way we are negates that record, however, and I would not be surprised at all to see Colon lead the Rangers to a win here. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5) |
|||||||
07-13-18 | Yankees v. Indians +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Indians +1.5. Taking Cleveland didn't work out so well yday (lost 7-4), but I have no problem coming right back w/ them today. While last night did mark the Tribe's seventh straight loss to the Yankees (dating back to LY's LDS), these teams are a lot more even than how they've been priced. Cleveland, leaders of a weak AL Central, are still 29-18 at Progressive Field this season where they average 6.1 runs game. That makes the highest scoring team in all of baseball, mind you. Yankees starter Domingo German has poor numbers away from Yankee Stadium, so w/ the revenge angle still in play, I'm willing to say Cleveland does no worse than a one-run loss in this spot. Last night, the Indians were able to score four times off Luis Severino, knocking him out after just five innings. But Corey Kluber's curious struggles vs. New York continued as he too allowed four runs through five frames. Unlike Severino, he was allowed to stay in the game and that proved to be a mistake as he gave up two runs in the top of the eighth, breaking open what was a tie game. Though they were held below their YTD scoring average here at home yday, the offense does not concern me here w/ Cleveland. They'll be facing German, who has a 7.10 ERA and 1.421 WHIP in five road starts (still winles). That's even after allowing just one run at Toronto on Sunday, which was actually an inefficient start as he threw 100+ pitches in just six innings. Now it is imperative that the Indians get to the rookie early as the Yankees do lay claim to the best bullpen in baseball. But considering German is somehow unbeaten despite a 4.85 ERA his L6 starts, I'd say he's "due" for an off-night. Cleveland will start Shane Bieber, a rookie himself that is off his 1st career defeat. He had a perfect 5-0 TSR going into Sunday's start vs. Oakland, but allowed four runs in six innings. Ironically, he'd done the same in his start previous to that one, but was bailed out by the offense vs. KC. Bieber has allowed exactly 4 ER in three of his six starts, but just two total in the other three. He also comes in sporting a 36-6 KW ratio. The Indians have to start winning more at home (given their scoring average here) and giving those offensive numbers, I'd say taking an additional 1.5 runs seems like a sound wager. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5) |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Rays v. Twins +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
8* Run Line Minnesota (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Both of these teams won yday afternoon. Both also come into this series playing quite well. In the case of Tampa Bay, that's "really well." The resurgent Rays, buoyed by creative management of the pitching staff, have won five straight and 14 of their last 18. Not to be outdone, the Twins (still eight games below .500) have won six of their last seven. Now you could certainly poke a hole in Minny's win streak as it came at the expense of Baltimore and Kansas City, the two worst teams in all of MLB. But the Rays resurgence is also not w/o question marks. While they've won 14 of their last 15 home games (holding their opponent to two runs or less 12 times!), this team's road record is still only 22-27. They average just 3.8 rpg away from Tropicana Field. That and a revenge angle have me on the Twins in Thursday's series opener. If you haven't been following the team, the Rays have gotten very creative w/ their pitching staff. Back in mid-May, manager Kevin Cash elected to try something new. That would be using relievers as starters, "openers" as he likes to call them, but not asking them to log "starter-like" innings. The results (thus far) have been nothing short of incredible as the Rays have the lowest team ERA in all of baseball the L2 months. Yesterday was a fine example of what Cash has been doing as five Rays pitchers combined to hold the Tigers to two runs on seven hits. Now, that said, they still almost lost the game, needing a three-run C.J. Cron home run in the bottom of the seventh to pull out the 4-2 victory. It should also be pointed out they were playing the Tigers. Similar to Minnesota, TB has faced a weak slate of opposition recently, including the Mets and Marlins. Ironically, it won't be an "opener" today for Cash & the Rays, but rather their best traditional starter. Blake Snell was an All-Star snub (just ask teammate Chris Archer!), given that he leads the league in ERA (2.10) and has a 0.42 ERA/0.877 WHIP his L3 starts overall. However, if there is one issue w/ Snell, it is his control. Or rather lack of it. He has issued 19 walks his L5 starts alone. Look for the Twins to take advantage tonight as they've already averaged more than 5.0 rpg the last week. I already mentioned that the Rays' offense can't be reliably counted upon on the road and that will work to the favor of Twins' starter Kyle Gibson, who has pitched better than his 3-6 record indicates. He threw seven solid innings his last time out and has a 105-46 KW ratio for the year. One final note I'll add is that the Twins have revenge coming into this series as they were swept at "the Trop" back in April. But they have a winning record (25-20) at home. They do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Minnesota |
|||||||
07-12-18 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 2 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. This AL East rivalry has certainly gone Boston's way in 2018 (not to mention 2017 as well) as they are already 7-2 head to head w/ the Jays this season. That includes a three-game sweep here at Fenway back on Memorial Day weekend. Since the start of last season, the Red Sox have taken 20 of 28 overall meetings. But I look for Thursday's series opener to go a little differently, or at least the road team to do no worse than a one-run loss. Boston has won a lot of one-run affairs this year (14-8 in such games), so playing the matchup this way guards us against that. It also helps that this is a night game where the Sox are "only" 42-24 (as opposed to a ridiculous 23-5 in day games). With Saturday & Sunday both day games, this may be the Jays' best shot in the series. Toronto had to settle for a split w/ Atlanta in its previous series as it lost yday, 9-5. It was their fifth straight series they failed to win (tied three of them) despite winning the series opener EVERY time! It should be noted that three of their previous seven losses have come exactly by one run. In an effort to continue winning series openers, the Jays will send J.A. Happ out to the mound Thursday. Originally, it was going to be Marco Estrada, but manager John Gibbson swapped their spots in the rotation (Estrada now starting Friday). This actually works out better as Happ has been the staff's most reliable (and profitable!) starter w/ a 10-5 record and 1.18 WHIP. The southpaw was outstanding vs. the Red Sox when he faced them earlier this year, allowing just one run in seven innings and posting a season-high 10 strikeouts. Toronto actually won as well, 4-3, though Happ didn't actually factor into the decision. There was a time when David Price consistently deserved to be in this price range, but I believe that time has passed. Thursday's starter for Boston comes in sporting an ugly 8.36 ERA and 1.643 WHIP his L3 starts. That's after giving up a total of 12 runs in his last two, which have spanned a combined eight frames. Price has beaten Toronto twice this season, but he lasted only 5 and 5 1/3 innings. The Blue Jays' hitters were able to work the count against him both times as well, drawing a total of seven walks. While the Red Sox come into this series having won nine straight, the last two teams they swept were the Royals and Rangers. This series will be tougher and Toronto could very well steal the opener tonight. 8* Run Line Toronto |
|||||||
07-11-18 | England v. Croatia +0.5 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
10* Croatia +0.5 (2:00 ET): As I said in my previous analysis, it's looking more and more like "the year" for England. I took The Three Lions in the quarterfinals when they blanked Sweden, 2-0, arguably their finest performance of this tournament to date. There's a real irony to the fact it was their lone loss (1-0 to Belgium) that set them up so well in this - clearly - weaker half of the draw. But make no mistake about it, their semifinal opponent - Croatia - is no pushover. Sure, it has taken penalty kicks for the Blazers to advance each of the last two rounds (over Denmark, then Russia). That left me unhappy as I was on them both times. But remember that it took PK's for England to get by Colombia as well in the Rd of 16. I see an even match here and Croatia will do no worse than a draw after 90 mins. A lot is being made of the extra football Croatia has had to play just to get here. But the reality is that they've played only 30 mins more than their English counterparts. I view that as a non-factor. More intriguing to me is how England handles its new role of the hunted (as opposed to being the hunter). They performed quite well against Sweden, their 1st match of the tournament where they did not concede. At the same time, it was also the first match where Harry Kane failed to find the back of the net. However, this is England's first trip to the World Cup semis in 28 years. The pressure is squarely on them Wednesday and I expect them to play a bit cautious. Croatia has scored 10 goals in the tournament, just one fewer than England. They've also been less reliant on set pieces. They clearly have the edge in the midfield as well, where led by Luka Modric and Ivan Rakitic, they may be as talented as any team in the entire draw. Also keep in mind that 6 of England's 11 goals scored in this tournament came against a lousy Panama side. Croatia is unbeaten in its last six matches overall. They will not go down easily and I feel England is overvalued in this particular spot. 10* Croatia |
|||||||
07-09-18 | Brewers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a play on the run line only where I'm taking the Marlins +1.5. This will be the second straight series that Miami comes in w/ revenge. The last one saw them lose to Washington three more times before eventually avenging yday with a convincing 10-2 victory,. I didn't play any games in that series as I figured Washington was set to turn it around, yet at the same time "knew" the Marlins were going to eventually get a game. They almost did right off the bat, but blew a 9-0 lead in the series opener, which set the tone for the rest of the series. The Fish then dropped the next game (Friday) in walk-off fashion, 3-2, before getting routed on Saturday. I feel that, back home, they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. As was the case w/ Washington, Miami will be looking to avenge a four-game sweep here. Milwaukee took all four games from them back in mid-April, but that series was contested at Miller Park. The Marlins have been slightly more competitive here at home this season, getting outscored by only 0.6 rpg as opposed to 2.2 rpg on the road. That's actually quite the difference. Playing tonight's matchup this way obviously guards us against a one-run loss and the Brewers happen to have 21 one-run victories already this season, most in the National League. The Brew Crew happen to have won six of their last seven, including a 10-3 victory Sunday over the Braves. But aside from yday, they really haven't been scoring a ton of late. Ryan Braun will be out of the lineup tonight and possibly until after the All-Star Break. Tonight's pitching matchup is interesting because on the surface, you'd think it would be a huge edge to Milwaukee, but that's not really the case. Marlins starter Jose Urena has been one of the most hard-luck pitchers in baseball this season, right next to the Mets' Jacob deGrom. Urena has a terrible 3-14 team start record and his 4.18 ERA won't exactly "knock your socks off" (though it's not terrible either). But Urena has a 1.182 WHIP, which indicates he should have had far more success to this point. Lately, the proverbial "worm" has "started to turn" w/ Urena going 2-2 over his L7 starts. He just threw five shutout innings LW vs. Tampa Bay as the team won 3-0. Urena has allowed 3 ER or less in 10 of his 17 starts this season after going 14-7 in '17. Milwaukee's Chase Anderson has been sharp of late w/ a 1.56 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts. But his ground ball to fly ball ratio concerns me. Despite being a first place team, the Brewers are not priced as road favorites this high on the ML that often. So it's an excellent opportunity to grab the +1.5. 10* Run Line Miami (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-29-18 | Rockies +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
8* Run Line Colorado (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line only where I am taking the Rockies +1.5. The month of June has gone very differently for these two NL West clubs. Colorado is just 9-16 while Los Angeles is 17-7 (not to mention 27-11 since 5.17). Ironically, those disparate records began when the Dodgers swept the Rockies, at Coors Field, the first three days of the month. The Dodgers' bats took full advantage of the environment that Coors Field typically provides, scoring 33 runs in the three games. They've continued a torrid pace the rest of the month, hitting 53 home runs total. They need "just" five more in the next two days to tie a MLB-record for most HR's ever hit in a month. Here at Chavez Ravine, I expect a much different series than what we saw earlier in the month at Coors. That said, the runs allowed side of the ledger has been a problem for these Dodgers, as we saw yday in an 11-5 loss to the Cubs. After Clayton Kershaw threw scoreless, the bullpen imploded, giving up seven runs in the seventh inning alone. With the bullpen already in tatters, there's an obvious problem here, and I don't see them getting the kind of start here from Rich Hill that they got yday from Kershaw. Hill has not pitched particularly well this season (5.30 ERA, 1.514 WHIP), particularly here at home where he has a 6.10 ERA and 1.742 WHIP (in four starts). Hill allowed four runs in five innings his last time out, though the Dodgers did beat the Mets, 8-7. Hill has never pitched well against Colorado, however, going 0-3 w/ a 7.52 ERA in four starts. This year's Rockies have been a bit different than past editions as they've actually been a bit better on the road than at home. Tonight's starter Tyler Anderson is emblematic of this as he's unbeaten in his nine road starts (3-0) w/ a 6-3 TSR. He's delivered B2B quality starts away from home, allowing just 3 ER in 14 IP. Rockies' pitching has held opposing hitters to a .237 average outside of Coors this season. The team has some "momentum" (hate that word!) coming into this series after rallying to beat the Giants yday, 9-8, snapping a four-game losing streak in the process. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss defeat tonight and I expect victory. 8* Run Line Colorado (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-29-18 | Brewers v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
6* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds at +1.5. While Milwaukee is in first place in the NL Central, it was actually the last place Reds that came into this weekend series as the hotter team. Cincy had won 9 of its last 10 going into last night, but dropped the opener, 6-4, falling to 1-6 head to head w/ the Brew Crew this season. That lone win came in the season's first meeting and the last four losses have all come here at home. But buoyed by that recent stretch of winning, the Reds have been surprisingly decent under interim manager Jim Riggleman, basically playing .500 ball. They have revenge here and I don't think they'll do any worse than a one-run loss. Milwaukee came into this series have dropped 6 of its last 10. Fortunately for them, it didn't really cost them in the division race, which they still lead by 2.5 games over the Cubs. I don't think for a second this team is better than the Cubs, though they very well could end up making the playoffs. Their road record is very good (23-16), especially here in Great American Ballpark. But, offensively, questions abound. They're just middle of the pack in most categories & are now likely to be w/o leadoff man Christian Yelich tonight, and possibly the remainder of the series. He left last night's game w/ tightness in his back. It didn't cost the team last night, but could be a significant factor the rest of the weekend. Both starting pitchers tonight have looked good recently. The Reds' Sal Romano (not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character of the same name) has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. Now, he was a bit fortunate his last time out as he gave up five runs to the Cubs (in 5 IP), yet the team still won, 8-6. But there was nothing lucky about his two previous pitching performances as he gave up just one run in 15 IP, allowing just eight hits. He'll be opposed here by Chase Anderson, whose numbers over his L3 starts are also good (0.923 WHIP), but all of those were at home. Plus, one of them saw him allow six runs in a 10-9 loss to Philadelphia. He was lucky to beat the Reds back in May as he allowed four runs on six hits in 5 1/3 IP. Romano has made just one previous start against Milwaukee and allowed just two runs and four hits in 5 IP. Again, I feel the Reds win here or do no worse than a one-run loss. The run line helps nullify the fact the Brewers are 18-11 in one-run games (easily most one-run wins in NL) while the Reds are 6-14 (worst such record). 6* Run Line Cincinnati |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 8 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
06-28-18 | Poland v. Japan | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
8* Japan +0 (10:00 AM ET): Note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here, meaning that in case of a draw, the result will be a 'push.' This is a nice way to "protect" ourselves in a situation where Japan, not Poland, should now be considered the favorite. Group H, already considered the most "wide open" when the draw was announced, quickly plunged into "choas" w/ the results of the first two matches here in Russia. Those results saw Japan stun Colombia and Senegal upend Poland. Japan didn't stop there though, earning itself a rather dramatic draw against Senegal and they are now the group leaders w/ four points. Poland, meanwhile, is winless and the only team in the group eliminated. So you can see how, from a motivational perspective, I'd side w/ Japan here. It wasn't supposed to be this way for Poland. Coming into the World Cup ranked #8 by FIFA, the Eagles were expected to advance past the Group Stage, led by Robert Lewandowski. But this isn't a deep team and that's why I played against them in the opener vs. Senegal (using the Asian Handicap). That was an ugly game and the sixth straight time Poland failed to win its first WC match. Then, a 3-0 loss to Colombia ensured a 32-year drought of not advancing past the Group Stage would continue. The lack of depth behind Lewandowski has been apparent in the first two games as they've scored just one goal (and it came late vs. Senegal and maybe shouldn't have counted) and had only six shots on goal. Having already been eliminated and off two brutal losses, I question this side's ability to find the adequate motivation on Thursday. Just like Poland at the bottom of Group H is a surprise, Japan at the top is equally (if not more) shocking. After stunning Colombia 2-1 in the opener, they pulled out a dramatic 2-2 draw vs. Senegal w/ Keisuke Honda coming off the bench to score in the 78th minute. All they need here is another draw and they're onto the Round of 16. But don't think for a second that the Samurai Blue will be satisfied w/ simply a draw here. This is an attacking group w/ plenty of experience. "I think we have to focus on getting three points rather than make calculations. We have four points after two games but we haven't accomplished anything yet," said captain Makoto Hasebe. They are the more motivated side here and I believe will be victorious here. 8* Japan |
|||||||
06-27-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Angels (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Angels +1.5. Simply put, the Red Sox have not been a good opponent for the Angels this season. In four games against the AL East heavyweights, the Halos have been outscored 36-4! That's an average score of 9-1, which was the final last night, ironically enough. Though the Red Sox are a very good team, I just don't believe the gap between these two teams is as sizable as what we've seen in the four head to head meetings this season. That's why I'm willing to say Los Angeles does no worse than a one-run loss here. Many are of the opinion that the five American League playoff teams could very well be set at this point (NY, Boston, Cleveland, Houston, Seattle). But if anyone is going to crash the "party," it will be the Angels. Last night's game got off to a terrible start if you were rooting for the Angels as the first pitch from starter John Lamb was hit over the fence by Mookie Betts. It was 5-0 after the second inning and the game was basically over at that point. The Red Sox homered four times as the won for a fourth time in five games. They are 26-12 at Fenway this season. Sending Rick Porcello out to the mound tonight seems like it would keep things trending in a positive direction as he has a 0.947 WHIP his L3 starts overall. He just threw seven scoreless innings of one-hit ball his last start, which was against Minnesota. That was the fourth time in his last five starts that Porcello allowed 2 ER or less. But the nine-game winner has not pitched particularly well in the past against the Angels, going just 7-7 w/ a 5.51 ERA in 17 starts. Andrew Heaney will start for the Angels and I believe he'll be up for the challenge. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 13 starts this season, including the last one where he scattered nine hits over seven innings and gave up just one run. He started June w/ a CG one-hitter vs. Kansas City and also went eight innings (allowed just three runs) in his last road start, which came at Oakland on June 17th. Since April 27th, he's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of 11 starts. The Angels have been on a slide of late (lost four straight), but are due for better results and have been a better team on the road than at home. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-26-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* Run Line LA Angels (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Angels +1.5. Now, admittedly, this is not the greatest of spots for the Halos. They had to play a make-up game yday ... and lost to the lowly Royals, 2-0. But they should certainly be motivated by that humiliating defeat, not to mention revenge as they look to exact it against a Red Sox team that swept them back in April. That series was not a good one for LA as they lost all three games - by a combined score of 27-3. Boston is riding high right now after taking two of three from LA's division rival Seattle over the weekend. But they are overpriced here, opening up some real value w/ the RL. The road team does no worse than a one-run loss here. The Angels will have to face David Price tonight. But that sounds more dubious than it actually is. Price does own a 10-5 team start record, but his ERA (3.81) and WHIP (1.214) are positively mediocre. Those numbers were even worse prior to the last month or so. Last time out, Price gave up two home runs as the Red Sox lost 4-1 in Minnesota. That was the team's first loss w/ him on the bump since early May. Don't be surprised if they drop two in a row though as Price is just 6-7 lifetime vs. the Angels w/ 3.45 ERA. He also has a 4.01 ERA and 1.307 WHIP at home this year. That's not exactly awe-inspiring. Because of injury, the Angels starting rotation is somewhat in shambles. So they have to call upon John Lamb for a third time. Lamb hasn't exactly lasted long in either of his first two starts (just 8 1/3 IP), but he's allowed only five runs. The Red Sox have never faced him, so that's an advantage for the pitcher. As good as Boston has been at home this year, the Angels have been equally as impressive on the road. Don't be fooled that the road record is "just" 21-17; the Angels are outscoring opponents by 1.4 rpg away from home this year. Only AL West rival Houston (who has been ridiculous on the road) has a better scoring differential on the road this season. Mike Trout loves to play here at Fenway as he's hit .371 in 16 career games here. Note that if you take out day games (where they're a MLB-best 20-5), the Red Sox record drops to "just" 32-22. 10* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-20-18 | Morocco +1 v. Portugal | Top | 0-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* Morocco +1 (8:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the Asian Handicap here where all we need is a draw. Morocco got the proverbial "raw deal" in its opening match, losing on an "own goal" (in the 95th minute!) to Iran, 1-0. I had the Under in that game, an easy winner. I did not have a play in Portugal's opener where they drew Iberian rival Spain, 3-3, as all three of their goals came off the foot of the incomparable Cristiano Ronaldo. Prevailing wisdom here is that a mentally beaten Morocco will be no match for Ronaldo and company. But I contest that theory. What If Ronaldo isn't at the same level we saw him at against Spain? The Atlas Lions can certainly earn a draw here. Realistically, Morocco probably needs a win here to have any chance of advancing past the group stage. Therefore, look for them to be a lot more aggressive than they were against Iran. That said, this is still a team that "should have" played to a scoreless draw vs. Iran. Had they done so, they would have added to their already impressive total of recent "clean sheets." As I said in my analysis for the matchup w/ the Iranians, Morocco went unbeaten in CAF qualifying and didn't concede a single goal in six matches. That's really impressive. It should also be stated that while they lost to Iran, the Atlas Lions truly did outplay Team Melli. They had 13 shots on goal (to Iran's 8) and also had possession of the ball 63% of the time. The reigning Euro Champs would seem to have a clear path to advancing to the Round of 16. Beating Morocco and Iran would get them there and Selecao has lost just two competitive matches since the '14 World Cup. Both times Ronaldo was injured and did not play. However, it needs to be reiterated how this isn't the deepest of teams. Other than Ronaldo, who can score? No one did vs. Spain and they also conceded three goals. Considering the "stinginess" of the Moroccan side, Portugal won't be scoring as many times here as they did in the opener. Count on that. A goal from the Atlas Lions all but assures us this won't be a losing bet. 8* Morocco +1 |
|||||||
06-19-18 | Senegal +0.5 v. Poland | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show |
8* Senegal +0.5 (11:00 AM ET): Please note that I'm using the "Asian Handicap" for this play, which means we win if the game is a draw OR (obviously) if our side prevails outright. I like Senegal getting a half-goal in this situation as I believe them to be every bit as talented as their favored counterparts in Poland, if not more. Group H is perceived to be the most "wide-open" of the entire draw and if there is to be an "upset," I believe it would be here and that could have major ramifications for the rest of the group and possibly have Senegal advance to the round of 16 alongside group favorite Colombia. The +0.5 is a nice luxury to have here. Qualifying for this year's WC came fairly easy for Senegal. The Lions of Teranga took 14 points in their six matches (four wins) and scored 10 goals in the process. They didn't lose and one of the two draws saw them give up the lead in the 88th minute. It's a talented group, led by Sadio Mane, who was Liverpool's second best player this past Premier League campaign, behind only Mohamed Salah. It's the first World Cup appearance since that miraculous run to the quarterfinal round in 2002 (which included an opening rd win over France) and while no African side has ever won a WC, I believe this one can certainly make some noise in the group stage. Poland comes in at 8th in the FIFA rankings, but I have to wonder if that's too high. The team is highly dependent on Robert Lewandowski, whose 16 goals were tops in UEFA qualifying. However, some of the other key players simply did not have impressive seasons w/ their respective clubs. Quite frankly, I don't think it's a stretch to say Senegal is the deeper side here. This will be Poland's first WC appearance since '06 and they haven't made it out of the group stage since 1986. They are likely going to be w/o defender Kamil Glik on Tuesday, which would be a key absence. I see a draw being a likely scenario here (which would be potentially huge for Senegal) and that's all we need. 8* Senegal +0.5 |
|||||||
06-16-18 | Montreal +8 v. BC | Top | 10-22 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
06-14-18 | Astros v. A's +1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. Perhaps I'm being too stubborn here. But my belief in a simple revenge system has me on Oakland again here. Since beating Houston 8-1, back on April 27th, the A's have had no luck against this division rival - at all. Last night marked their seventh consecutive loss to the Astros, and generally speaking, most of the games haven't been close. Last night wasn't (13-5 final) and the A's have now been outscored 62-17 during that seven-game losing streak. This afternoon finds them facing the prospect of being swept for a second straight time - at home, again, no less - by Houston. That just doesn't happen often. I'll say Oakland does no worse than 1-run loss here. Now it definitely won't be easy as the A's must face Justin Verlander. This comes on the heels of facing Gerrit Cole yday. Talk about a tall order. Of course, it really didn't matter what pitcher they were facing last night given their own starter (Paul Blackburn) gave up eight runs while getting only four outs. It was 10-0 by the end of the second inning and, at that point, any comeback attempts is rather futile. The story was somewhat similar on Tuesday where the Astros jumped out to a 3-0 lead after the first inning and didn't need to worry about "looking back." Obviously, I'm hopeful that we get a better start today from Frankie Montas and he can mitigate or out & out prevent early damage from taking place. Montas is 3-0 this season, with a 1.25 ERA and 0.877 WHIP. So it's not like he hasn't pitched well previously. Now, Houston is a definite step up in class from the teams Montas has faced previously. His last two starts have both been against Kansas City. The margin for error here against Verlander, who leads MLB in both ERA and WHIP, is slim. But Montas seems "up" for the challenge as he's allowed just three runs in 21 2/3 innings. As good as Houston has looked in the first two games of this series, eventually the odds have to catch up w/ them (right?) and they're due to drop a game to their AL West rival. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-13-18 | Astros v. A's +1.5 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the A's at +1.5. Ever since taking the first head to head meeting of the season (8-1 on April 27th), the A's have had no luck at all against the mighty Astros, losing six straight times to them and getting outscored 49-12 (!) in the process. The last four losses have all come here at home, including 6-3 last night as scoring the game's first run didn't even matter (Houston responded w/ a four-run 2nd inning). Tonight, the Astros figure to be a VERY public side considering Gerrit Cole is pitching. While it's tough to argue that Cole and the Astros shouldn't be heavily favored here, the revenge angle has me believing Oakland will do no worse than a one-run loss in this spot. Take the run line (+1.5). Paul Blackburn being on the mound here definitely gives the home team a lift. While it came against the lowly Royals, Blackburn's first start of '18 probably could not have gone any better. He went six innings and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits. Oakland won the game 4-1 and would go onto give up just seven runs total in that four-game series. Houston is obviously a major step up in class from KC (in fact, I'd argue there isn't a larger step up in class from one series to the next in all of MLB!), but this A's team is better than you probably think. Plus, since coming over from Seattle last year, Blackburn has never lost at home in six tries. The A's have dropped B2B games just once this month and are allowing just 3.7 rpg at home for the year. Seems like the +1.5 is nice luxury to have. I won't go through a complete run down of Cole's expolits, lest I want to dissuade you from fading them in this spot. He has been the best starter in a rotation that has been the best in all of MLB so far. Houston is - incredibly - outscoring its opposition by a 2:1 margin on the road this season. The team is actually underperforming, in terms of wins and losses, when measured by run differential. Having outscored opponents by a MLB-best 130 runs, they've played to the level of a 49-win team (current record is 43-25). The issue has been them going 6-12 in one-run games, the WORST such record in all of baseball. My "gut" (which isn't getting any smaller, by the way!) tells me that the 'Stros are due to start winning their fair share of one-run decisions moving forward. This game very well could be the start of such a run. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-12-18 | Astros v. A's +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -135 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the A's at +1.5. Oakland has legit revenge here as they were swept by Houston, back in early May, here at home. After taking the first head to head matchup of the year, 8-1, they've lost five straight to the 'Stros while getting outscored 43-9 in the process! But for tonight, I think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss. Yes, Houston comes in riding a five-game win streak and has the best run differential in all of baseball (+127). But they've curiously struggled in one run games to this point (just 6-12). Meanwhile, Oakland has outperformed its (admittedly low) expectations so far as they come into this series sporting both a winning record and positive run differential. Aiding the A's case here tonight is the fact they'll have Daniel Mengden on the bump. Mengden, despite an 0-2 TSR vs. Houston this year and coming off a rough outing, is probably the "right man for the job" in ended this head to head losing streak. Even after giving up six runs last Wednesday vs. Texas (allowed 4 HR's!), he still sports a 2.54 ERA and 0.854 WHIP his L7 starts. At home, his ERA and WHIP are 2.67 and 0.87, so I fully anticipate he'll keep his team in the game tonight. The last time he faced the Astros, two solo home runs were the only mistakes he made in a 4-1 loss. This A's team just took three of four from the lowly Royals over the weekend, so they'll enter the series w/ some confidence, especially with their top starter on the mound for the opener. Statistically, Houston has been the top road team in all of baseball this season, outscoring opponents by a 2:1 margin. But that success has little to do w/ tonight's starter, Lance McCullers Jr, who carries a 5.55 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in seven road starts into this contest. True to form, McCullers only previous start in Oakland was not one of his finest. He also hasn't been particularly great his L3 starts overall. While facing a trio of first place teams, McCullers turned in a 6.61 ERA and 1.408 WHIP in that trifecta of outings. His last road start saw him allow seven runs in Cleveland and three home runs. He allowed two more HR's in his last start. I can see the A's "stealing one here." 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-12-18 | Indians v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the White Sox +1.5. Perhaps, in retrospect, it was unwise for me to play Chicago last night, even w/ the benefit of them getting the additional 1.5 runs at a great price. There was no answer for Indians' starter Carlos Carrasco, who shut them out over seven innings w/ 11 strikeouts. The White Sox had just two hits for the game and have won just one time against Cleveland - in 11 tries - dating back to last September. They're 0-4 against them here in 2018 (outscored 29-10), but with the revenge angle still in play - and being 5-0 off their L5 losses - I believe the White Sox +1.5 is still the way to go here as Tuesday is the game where they'll have the "easiest" pitching matchup. Now Indians starter Adam Plutko does come in w/ a 3-0 TSR for the year. His last start came in the previous series vs. the White Sox and Cleveland won that game, 9-6. But that was no thanks to Plutko as he gave up five runs in five innings, not to mention two home runs. He's allowed a total of 5 HR's in his three starts. After starting against the White Sox, Plutko was sent back down to Triple-A where he tossed a no-hitter on June 2nd (was perfect through eight innings). But this is the big league level now. I also still have legit concerns over a Cleveland bullpen that currently ranks 30th (i.e. last) in ERA. The Tribe are just 2-3 following a shutout victory this season and 3-8 when priced between -125 and -175 as the road team. The money line today, when compared to last night, makes it appear as if this is the game in the series where they are most vulnerable. Veteran James Shields will toe the rubber for the White Sox in this one. While he was roughed up to the tune of seven runs in his last outing, Shields deserves better than just one win in 13 tries this season. That one win came on Opening Day too, but was the first of seven quality starts from the 37-year old. It should be noted that White Sox pitching has limited the opposition to four runs or less in eight of the last nine games and just 10 runs total the L4 games combined. Cleveland comes in batting only .225 on the road this season and has topped five runs only one time in its last nine games. On paper, the White Sox seem overmatched in this one, but I feel they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-11-18 | Indians v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the White Sox +1.5. Like Milwaukee, the White Sox have revenge here as they were swept in three-game set in Cleveland late last month. Another similarity to that Cubs-Brewers matchup is that this one too has been quite one-sided w/ 9 of the past 10 matchups going the Indians' way. Unlike Milwaukee though, Chicago is a decided underdog here and probably deserves to be. After all, they are a bottom five team in all of baseball in both number of wins and run differential. But that's where the RL comes in as I don't see the Sox doing any worse here than a one-run loss. It's really difficult to sweep the same opponent twice, especially a division foe. Being able to get the +1.5 at this kind of price is pretty remarkable. Chicago has won four of its last six games, including two of three in Boston over the weekend. Obviously, they were sizable underdogs on the ML in both wins. They cashed in at +255 in Friday's opener (won 1-0) and then north of +200 again yday in the 5-2 victory. While they have yet to win this year as a ML home dog of +175 or higher (0-3), Cleveland is just 3-2 when priced north of -175 on the road. All three of those games for the White Sox came against Houston, who is in a different class than the Indians. Again, Chicago has been playing better baseball this month, turning in a 6-4 record despite facing two first place teams. That record has netted quite the ROI as they've been a sizable ML dog in every game. Cleveland just took two of three in Detroit and has won four of its last five overall. They lead what is shaping up to be a historically weak AL Central by five games now and its a lead they probably know they can maintain "no matter what" throughout the course of this season. I suspect the Indians will win nowhere near the number of games they did last year, but then again, all that's important for them is the playoffs (early exit last year despite homefield advantage). Carlos Carrasco gets the starting nod Monday and while he's off a dominant effort his last time out, it's difficult to trust a pitcher that allowed a total of 11 runs in his two starts prior. A big difference between the 2018 Indians and last year is that this groups ranks dead last in bullpen ERA (by a wide margin) after ranking first in that category in '17. So don't rule out a late Chicago rally in this one either. The White Sox send Lucas Giolito to the mound here and while his numbers might seem to indicate that it's been a rough year, he's actually given up 3 ER or fewer in five of his last eight starts. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox |
|||||||
06-11-18 | Cubs v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -144 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
8* Run Line Milwaukee (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Brewers +1.5. The last time the Brew Crew met the Cubs, it was not a pleasant experience. At least for them, it wasn't. They were swept in a four-game set at Wrigley and shut out in three of the games! In fact, they scored a total of just two runs for the entire series. But that was Wrigley and this is Miller Park. Milwaukee is 18-11 at home this season and despite being 1-7 head to head w/ the Cubs in 2018 (did lose 3 of 4 to them here in early April), they still have a half-game lead in the division. Run differential suggests that the Cubs are the better side here, and over the long-term they might be. But my "gut" says the Brewers do no worse here than a one-run loss. Both of the previous series between the teams took place all the way back in April. Since that time, the Brewers have gone 23-13 overall and basically led the NL Central during that entire timeframe. They enter this series having just taken two of three at Philadelphia (the only loss coming yday, by one run), totaling 24 runs in the pair of wins (scored 12 in each game). Getting back to yday's one-run defeat, the Brewers have been involved in quite the number of one-run affairs this season. Their 22 such games are most in the National League and they've gone 15-7 in those contests. Even if you feel they are "due" to lose one, that result would be just fine here given how we're playing Monday's matchup. Milwaukee is also 26-13 in night games this season. They were #1 in all of MLB in net units going into yday at +15.2 for the season. The Cubs have won 8 of 10, but lost yday, 7-1 to the Pirates. That loss cost them what would have been a sweep, not to mention first place in the division. Tonight, they'll send out Jose Quintana to the mound. He's off a season-best 10 K's in his last outing, but still has only a 4.20 ERA and 1.368 WHIP in 12 starts overall. Brewers starter Junior Guerra has been better of late (0.944 WHIP L3 starts) too. These two faced off in the last series between the teams and while Quintana got the better of Guerra, the latter gave up only one run on three hits (in 6 IP). The revenge angle is strong here and three of the previous eight matchups have been one-run games. 8* Run Line Milwaukee (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-10-18 | Cardinals v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds at +1.5. It was NOT "lucky #13" for the Reds yday as they lost for an unconscionable 13th straight time to the division rival Cardinals. That "baker's dozen" of defeats includes an 0-9 mark this season and on Sunday they'll be looking to avoid what would be their THIRD sweep at the hands of the Cards already. Note I did cash Cincinnati +1.5 in the opener of this three-game set as they took the Redbirds into extra innings (lost 7-6). That's what I'll do again here today as you just don't see one team sweep another twice very often, let alone three times (especially when it's division rivals). It has obviously not been a good season in Cincinnati as the team is now 22-43 overall (season worse 21 games below .500), its worst 65-game start since 1934. Of course, they opened 2018 by losing 18 of their first 21 games (which included both prior sweeps at the hands of the Cardinals) and fired manager Bryan Price quickly. Under interim Jim Riggleman, things have been better as the team had basically been playing at a .500 level prior to this series. Incredibly, the Reds have lost to the Cardinals 11 straight times at home now. That has to be "due" to change, right? Maybe Anthony DeScalafani being back in the rotation is what the team needs. In his first start back from Tommy John surgery, DeSclafani wasn't exactly great five days ago against Colorado (allowed 4 runs in 5 IP). But he's maybe the only pitcher on staff w/ a history of success against the Cardinals. Though he's not faced them since 2016, his career record is 4-1 vs. St. Louis (w/ a 2.13 ERA). The Redbirds won six straight Carlos Martinez's starts earlier this season, but he got hurt and missed almost a month of action. Like DeSclafani, he made his return to the rotation last Tuesday to less than stellar results. Martinez made it through only four innings and issued five walks while admitting to throwing the ball rather tentatively as he was afraid of reinjuring his arm. Velocity was way down. On the back end, the Cardinals are still w/o closer Bud Norris, which could conceivably open things up for a late Reds' rally, if need be. That's what happened Friday, leading to the winning RL ticket. The home team does no worse than a one-run loss Sunday. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-08-18 | Cardinals v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Reds at +1.5. Coming off a win over Colorado (avoided a sweep) here at home yday, the last team the Reds probably wanted to see in this spot is St. Louis. After all, they are 0-7 against the Cardinals this season. But I believe Cincy does no worse than a one-run loss spot. The Cards are by no means great on the road and this is a team that just avoided getting swept themselves w/ a win yday over Miami. Even losing two of three to the Marlins at home is pretty embarrassing in its own right. The revenge angle is obviously strong here as it's tough to sweep the same opponent twice (let alone THREE times), particularly a division rival. Take the +1.5. It's "Matt Harvey Day" (ha!) at Great American Ballpark on Friday. In all seriousness, Harvey has pitched pretty well for the Reds after the unceremonious exit from Queens. Now his last two outings were pretty rough, but both of those came on the road and one of them was at Colorado. His only start at Great American Ballpark so far (wearing a Reds' uniform) saw him pitch 6 1/3 innings and give up only one run on three hits. It was the best of his five starts w/ Cincinnati thus far. Though winless in four career starts vs. St. Louis, Harvey's ERA in those games is a strong 2.05. It may have taken extra innings yday against the Rockies, but the Reds were long overdue for a win as they'd outhit Colorado in the first two games, not to mention San Diego the game before that as well. St. Louis has dropped 8 of 14 and it's been over a month since they won B2B games. So yday's win doesn't exactly set them up well here. Again, dropping two of three (at home, no less) to the Marlins is not encouraging. Nor are the numbers of starter Luke Weaver on the road, such as his 5.22 ERA and 1.466 WHIP. Here, Weaver will face an offense performing a lot better than his recently. While the Reds are averaging 5.0 rpg (.295 batting average) the L7 games, St. Louis is at 4.1 rpg w/ a .258 batting average. I just find it hard to believe the Reds will get swept for a third time by the same team. Just to be "careful," we'll use the run line to our benefit as it's a good price. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-06-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 110-102 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): While a series sweep entails one team winning four in a row, a loss tonight in Cleveland would all but end the Cavaliers' season. For the third year in a row (this is the fourth straight Finals meeting), they have opened the NBA Finals by losing the first two games in Golden State. Barring a series comeback many just aren't seeing right now, the Cavs will likely rue the Game 1 loss for some time. So many things (reversed call, missed FT, JR Smith blunder) went against them in the overtime loss, that it's a wonder they even were able to make it to Game 2. While they fought valiently Sunday night, the underdog Cavs just couldn't seem to get over the hump in a wire to wire defeat, 122-103, at the hands of the Warriors. But, now at home, I think we'll see them perform a lot better. I'm taking the points in Game 3. If it feels like we've seen this before, that's because we have. Just last round, in the Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland found itself down 0-2 to Boston w/ the series heading back home. They would go onto win the next two games here in C-Town and eventually the series. Now, this Warriors team is a lot more formidable than the Celtics. But, same as that Boston series, I have to believe the Cavs' players not named "LeBron James" will start to set up now that they're back on their home floor. In the first two games, James' teammates are an abysmal 8 of 32 from three-point range off his passes, including 5 of 16 when uncontested. JR Smith, Jeff Green, Kyle Korver and Jordan Clarkson are a combined 14-54 from field in the series, including 5-25 on 3's. Again, look for these shooting numbers to jump way up now that we're at the Quicken Loans Arena. Golden State shot 57.3 percent from the field in Game 2, which makes them basically impossible to beat. In fact, they were near 54% for the first two games as a whole. But, just like Cleveland's shooting numbers must go up, the Warriors' must go down. At four games, Golden State is currently on its longest win streak of the postseason. They are 9-21 ATS this season off 3+ consecutive SU wins. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the Cavs never scored more than 94 pts in any of the four games in Boston. But in the three home games, they scored: 116, 111 and 109 pts. In the last five home games, they've averaged 113.8 PPG. In both '15 and '16, they beat GSW here at home in Game 3. Last year, they should have done the same, but blew a huge lead. With their season basically on the line, I'm on the home dog. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-04-18 | Royals +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
8* Run Line Kansas City (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Royals at +1.5. Back in April, these teams played three times in what was supposed to be a four-game set (one rainout) in KC. The Angels took all three games. Now the Royals have a shot at revenge and while I must concede my overall outlook on this club isn't good, I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Despite a poor record and an embarrassing 16-0 loss Friday (to the A's), the Royals are still 7-5 overall their last 12 games. The Angels come in off a successful series against Texas (took two of three), but have a losing home record (14-18), burning a lot of money in the process (-8.2 units). Danny Duffy will start for the Royals tonight. The team's Opening Day starter did not get off to a good start here in 2018 as he was 1-6 through his first 10 starts w/ a 6.88 ERA. At one point, he went through a stretch where he allowed 5+ ER in six of seven outings. But while he's still near the bottom of the pile in terms of net units for all starters (-5.9), Duffy comes in off B2B quality efforts and most importantly the team won both times. Duffy allowed just one run to the Rangers and Twins, on only four hits each, while working a total of 13 2/3 innings. He did not face the Angels in the April series, but is 2-1 all-time against them w/ a 3.46 ERA. The Angels' lineup is batting just .222 at home for the year. Nick Tropeano will get the baseball for the home team tonight. He did pitch in that last series between the teams and shut out KC for 6 2/3 innings. But even after B2B quality starts himself (both on the road), Tropeano has some issues. He's winless in four tries at home and has a 5.31 ERA and 1.426 WHIP. This Angels' lineup has struggled regardless of where it's played lately as they've been held to three runs or fewer in six of the last eight contests. They're also just 5-9 when facing a LH starter this year. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-03-18 | Cavs +11.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 16 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): This is an interesting game to handicap. The crux of the arguement hinges on whether or not the underdog Cavaliers truly have a formula to stick w/ the heavily favored Warriors, or will they be "emotionally spent" coming off a brutal Game 1 overtime loss? For me, I believe it's the former. I understand the need for the marketplace to "respect" the Dubs, but to me, the oddsmakers have them overpriced in this series. As maligned as this year's "supporting cast" might be, any team that can claim LeBron James on its roster is capable of winning on any given night. I almost never mention the officiating in my analysis, but there was certainly a myriad of calls that went against the Cavs Thursday night that cost them the chance at pulling the outright upset. After cashing the Over in Game 1, I'll take the points in Game 2. James had 51 points in Game 1 (on 19 of 32 shooting) to go along w/ eight rebounds and eight assists. It's a real shame how it was "wasted." His teammates went a combined 25 of 67 from the field (just 37.3%) including 7 of 30 from three-point range. Obviously, they need to be better. There was the JR Smith gaffe that will live in infamy, which followed a George Hill missed free throw that could have won the game at the end of regulation. Kevin Love played pretty well, but was also just 1 of 8 from behind the arc. I expect the supporting cast to be "better" here, which it will need to be as it would be beyond any superlative were James to score 50+ again. One key area where the Cavs did dominate Game 1 though was on the glass. They outrebounded Golden State 64-42, including 19-4 on the offensive end. Tristan Thompson will NOT be suspended here and I see no reason why the Cavs can't dominate the "smallish" Warriors on the glass again. This is the fourth time this postseason that Golden State has won three straight games. They have yet to win four straight. They lost Game 4 of the San Antonio series, then Game 3 of the New Orleans series and then Game 2 of the series as well. Now all of those losses did take place on the road. They have lost once at home this postseason (Game 4 vs. Houston), but overall have won 18 of their last 19 playoff games at Oracle Arena. I want to point out though that each of the last three games have seen them have to rally from a deficit of at least nine points. That doesn't seem like a very sustainable blueprint to me. Andre Iguodala is still out w/ a knee injury and listed as doubtful. I'm not sure the team shoots 51.1% from the floor again like it did in Game 1 either. For the season, when off three or more consecutive SU wins, the Warriors are just 8-21 ATS. Cleveland is 5-1 SU this postseason when down in the series and 17-10 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
06-01-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -139 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
8* Run Line Texas (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Not even the RL could help Texas yday as they fell to Seattle 6-1. But I'll still go with them here in a revenge spot against the Angels. It was a three-game sweep when these teams met earlier this season in Arlington. The Angels took all three games there, but what's interesting about both teams is how they've each been better on the road this season. Los Angeles is only 12-17 at home so far while Texas is a respectable 13-16 on the road (11-19 at home). It's been proven to be pretty difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, particularly a division foe. I say the Rangers do no worse than a one-run loss here. While the Rangers were able to split up in Seattle, the Angels actually had a worse start to the week as they dropped three of four in Detroit. All three losses were by four or more runs, including 6-2 yday afternoon. Now Shohei Ohtani will be back in lineup today (pitched Weds, so he had yday off), but the bottom line is this offense has scored three runs or fewer in five of its previous seven games. I don't see them turning things around here against the ageless Bartolo Colon, who has shockingly delivered a 0.96 WHIP in his nine starts this season, including 0.706 on the road where he's unbeaten w/ a 1.59 ERA. Colon rebounded from his worst start of the year (vs. the Yankees on 5.21) by allowing just three runs over 7 IP vs. Kansas City last Saturday. He did not pitch against the Angels in the previous series. He's gone at least six innings in five straight starts and has allowed more than 4 ER only once all season. While Colon continues to surprise, so too does Angels starter Jaime Barria, who leads the rotation in both ERA and WHIP (yes, better than Ohtani). He's delivered a slightly better ROI than Ohtani as well, despite making three less starts, but that has to do w/ pricing. Barria has been an underdog in each of his L3 starts and actually allowed 4 ER his last time out. Shockingly, the Angels are being outscored by more than a full run per game at home this year. Therefore, I don't see them winning by multiple runs here, especially after they were able to do so in all three games vs. the Rangers in the last series. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5) |
|||||||
06-01-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* Run Line Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Pirates +1.5. Now playing this NL Central matchup this way was a major letdown for me and anyone else who had the Bucs last night. Up 8-5 going into the bottom of the ninth (and w/ an additional +1.5 in hand), they frustratingly let the Cardinals score five times and win in walkoff fashion, 10-8. That came after Pittsburgh's own four-run eighth, which capped a comeback from an early 4-0 deficit. Losing on a walk-off 3-run HR is a really "bad beat" from where I sit, but once again I'll say the Bucs do no worse than a one-run loss here. Like yday, this starting pitching matchup is a rematch from last week's series and I'll side w/ the pitcher & team that have revenge. After winning his first three starts of the season, Pittsburgh has gone just 2-6 in Jameson Taillon's last eight starts. That includes a loss in the last one despite Taillon giving up just three runs on five hits over 6 1/3 innings (6-1 KW ratio). That was yet another instance of the Pirates faltering late against the Cards as they led that game 4-1 (at home) going into the seventh (lost 6-4). So last night wasn't unprecedented, nor was Taillon's performance. Despite that 2-6 TSR his last eight outings, he's allowed 3 ER or less five times during that stretch. He also allowed 3 ER or fewer in each of his first three starts where the team went 3-0. During that time, Taillon turned in B2B scoreless efforts (over 15 IP) including a complete game. Of course, St. Louis doesn't want to hear about "bad luck" considering all the one-run losses they've suffered at the hands of first place Milwaukee this year. That said, I'm going to go against them again tonight. The bullpen has been severely overworked the L2 games and the everyday lineup is battling a slew of injuries. That puts a lot of pressure on starter Mike Mikolas and while he's been up to the task so far (6-0 in 10 starts!), he was obviously fortunate to escape w/ a no-decision his last time out. Mikolas allowed four runs in six innings opposite Taillon and appeared to be the inferior pitcher to these eyes. Now it was arguably one of Mikolas' weaker starts to date, but could it be a sign of things to come? In his 1st start against Pittsburgh this season, the shoe was on the other foot as he pitched well, but didn't factor into the decision as the Cards lost by one run. By the way, St. Louis is just 4-7 this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
8* Run Line Texas (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. They prevailed yday, by one run, winning 7-6. Generally speaking, one-run games have gone quite well for the Mariners this season (they have a MLB-high 16 one-run victories so far), however we know that will probably "work itself out" and regress back to the mean. Seattle is a team that I don't feel is anywhere close to as good as its overall record (33-22) and in fact I find it "laughable" that they are just one game back of an Astros team that has a MLB-best +123 run differential (Seattle only +8!). The M's are a team I'll be looking to play against when the situation calls for it as they are not only fortunate to be 16-9 in one-run games, but also 5-0 in extra innings this year. The situation calls for a 'play against' this evening. Texas has its own "unique" history w/ one-run games the previous two seasons. In 2016, they won the American League West w/ 95 victories. But they only had a +8 run differential for the year. How could that happen? Well, they turned in the best single-season record in one-run games in MLB HISTORY at 36-11. Last year saw them predictably regress down to 78 wins w/ a MLB WORST 13-24 mark in one-run games. While they may not improve on their overall win total here in 2018 (team is currently 24-34), they should perform better in one-run games at least. Sure enough, they're 6-5 so far (also 5-1 in extra innings). Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's talk about tonight's pitching matchup. Wade LeBlanc has shocked me in turning in a 4-1 TSR for Seattle w/ a 1.71 ERA and 0.949 WHIP. Interestingly though, he has yet to factor into a single decision (0-0 personal WL record). Each of his last three starts have been one-run victories by the Mariners! The Rangers counter w/ Mike Minor, whose numbers aren't as impressive as LeBlanc's, but he has a 4-3 TSR. Two of the three games in this series have been decided by one run (each team winning one), but Texas has won two straight, scoring 16 runs in the process. I feel that the Mariners' 16-12 home record is pretty phony considering they have been outscored by 0.4 rpg. Meanwhile, the Rangers have actually performed far better on the road this season than they have at home. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-31-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 8-10 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Pirates at +1.5. The Bucs won yday, 2-1, thus avoiding what would have been a three-game sweep (at home) at the hands of the Cubs. Truthfully, it has not been a great finish to the month as the team has dropped 9 of its last 12 after winning eight of nine prior to that. Now they face another NL Central rival, one that they can look to extract some revenge against for a pair of losses last weekend. St. Louis took two of three at PNC Park over the Memorial Day weekend, but let me down yday afternoon with another one-run loss to the Brewers. Here, I don't see the Redbirds doing any better than a one-run win. Take the +1.5. The pitching matchup Friday features a repeat of last Saturday with Trevor Williams (PIT) again facing off against Jack Flaherty (StL). Interestingly enough, I backed Flaherty and the Cards in that game and it was a pretty easy 4-1 victory. At the time, St. Louis was still looking to avenge a three-game sweep that happened at PNC Park late last month. They did, but now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" w/ the Pirates playing w/ revenge. This is a favorite situation of mine where you have two pitchers facing off in B2B starts and you take the one who lost the prior meeting. Getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with in the spot seems like a nice luxury to have as well. Flaherty allowed just one run and four hits over 6 IP on Saturday, continuing a string of solid showings here in 2018. Interestingly enough though, this will be just his second start at home. Meanwhile, Williams has pitched better on the road than at home this season (3.14 ERA, 1.046 WHIP). While only one of the six head to head meetings this year between these teams have been decided by one run, both have been involved in their fair share of such affairs throughout the course of the season (like yday!). The Bucs are still 4-2 vs. the Cards in '18 and have scored at least four runs in all but one of those games. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:05 ET): Will we really see a road team win both Game 7's in the Conference Finals? The oddsmakers and public certainly think so as Golden State is a pretty significant favorite here, which is rare for a road team in a Game 7. Of course, that has a lot to do w/ the status of Chris Paul for the Rockets. For the record, as I write this, the Rockets are saying CP3 is "questionable" and will be a "game-time decision." Whether or not he plays, this play stands. Though Game 6 ended up being a disaster for Houston, note that that they did put together a 39-point first quarter w/o Paul. On the road. I'll take the points w/ the (rare) home dog in a Game 7. The Rockets have now been held under 100 pts in four straight games. Just how unprecedented is that? In the regular season, there was never an instance of them failing to score at least 100 pts in consecutive games! They've averaged just 91 PPG these L4 contests, which is just stunning. But, again, as we saw in that 1Q Saturday night, this team is more than capable of still scoring even w/o Paul. Consider that despite shooting 8 for 12 from three-point range in that 1Q of Game 6, the Rockets finished the game just 31 of 77 from the field overall (40.3%) and would go onto miss 20 of their final 27 attempts from behind the arc. James Harden in particular has really struggled from distance, going a combined 4 of 23 the L2 games. But, now the Rockets are back home and I just don't see any way we don't see across the board improvement offensively here. Four straight games of 40% shooting or worse is pretty unprecedented for any team in this league, especially this one. Home teams are now 104-27 SU all-time in Game 7's. That's just under an .800 win percentage. Over the last five years, home teams are 14-4 SU and two of the four wins by the road team came from the LeBron-led Cavs. On the road, the Warriors will not shoot as well here as they did at home in the second half of Game 6. They outscored the Rockets 31-9 in the fourth quarter, which is ridiculous and not going to happen again. Houston has not lost B2B games in the playoffs (going 4-0 ATS off a loss as well). Paul or not, I just see a ton of value w/ a team that was favored over the Warriors the last time here at home. 8* Houston |
|||||||
05-27-18 | Cavs +3 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
05-27-18 | Mets +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (2:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Mets at +1.5. After taking the opener of this four-game series, the Metropolitans have lost two in a row. They fell by one run (in extra innings) on Friday and then were absolutely bludgeoned in a 17-6 defeat yesterday. The former is a result that work just fine for us, given our use of the RL here, and the latter sets us up w/ the requisite value for being able to use the RL at a decent price. I remain unsold on Milwaukee, who does lead the NL Central at 33-20, but they've also been "propped up" by a 13-5 record in one-run games and they're 4-1 in extra innings. Mets do no worse than a one-run loss here. Believe it or not, but the Mets actually led 3-0 yday after the top of the first. But the Brew Crew quickly answered w/ three runs of their own. Note that the Mets did score again in both the second and third innings, only to again allow Milwaukee to tie things up (at 5-5) in the bottom of the third. It was a 7-6 game heading into the bottom half of the fifth when the home team tacked three more runs on the board. A seven-run eighth wasn't needed but put the "exclamation point" on the victory. It was the Brewers' eighth win in the L10 games as they tied the record for most runs scored in a game at Miller Park. It was also their largest margin of victory this season. For all that, Milwaukee is probably feeling pretty good about itself coming into today's series finale. They have their most consistent pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin, on the mound as well. However, Chacin is just 2-5 lifetime vs. NY w/ a 5.76 ERA. He also did have four walks in his last start. Interesting is that even following yday's offensive outburst, the Brewers are still only basically dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed here at home. The Mets remain a winning proposition on the road this year (13-10) and are 3-1 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Though he's had a couple of rough outings this month (both at home), the Mets' Zack Wheeler is off a strong showing his last time out where he allowed just three runs (only 1 earned) and had nine strikeouts. Don't blame him for losing that one. Wheeler has also pitched better on the road this season w/ a 3-1 TSR, 3.27 ERA and 1.182 WHIP. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-26-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Angels (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. Doing this worked out well last night as the Angels dropped the game, 2-1, thereby coming through for us on the RL. Problem is that they're still winless this season in four tries against the Yankees, thus our theme of revenge in tonight's three-pack continues. The Angels may be 0-7 against the Red Sox and Yankees this season, but they're 28-16 against everyone else and remain a strong value getting the additional 1.5 runs, especially at this price. Look for them again to do no worse than a one-run defeat tonight. Last night saw the Angels have to contend w/ Luis Severino, who added to his MLB best net units (now +9.0) by leading his team to another victory. They could manage just the one run off Severino on Friday, but still were in solid position to win most of the way, as late as the eighth inning when Shohei Ohtani came to bat w/ a chance to tie. But it simply wasn't to be. But the good news here is that the Halos get to face Sonny Gray tonight rather than Severino. Though Gray pitched well his last time out, that came against the lousy Royals and he still has a 5.48 ERA and 1.630 WHIP after nine starts. His numbers are even worse here at Yankee Stadium (6.48, 1.76) and the Angels still have the best road record in all of MLB at 16-6. The Angels will send Jamie Barria out to the bump tonight and that's a good thing. Through five starts, Barria has a 2.13 ERA and 1.026 WHIP and he's been at his best on the road where his ERA/WHIP are 0.87 and 0.968 respectively. He's yet to allow more than 2 ER in any start and did not face the Yankees in the prior series. He's allowed just six runs in 25 1/3 IP and last time out held Houston to just one run on four hits in 7 1/3. He had seven strikeouts and no walks and gave his team a chance (where they ultimately came up short) against Gerrit Cole. That game came all the way back on 5.15, so the rookie is well-rested here and in good position to help his team break through for the first time against the Yanks. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-26-18 | White Sox +1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the White Sox at +1.5. The White Sox appeared poised to start this series out w/ a win as they quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead last night and led 4-2 heading into the bottom of the eighth. But that's when their bullpen betrayed them, giving up three runs in that half inning, resulting in a 5-4 loss. They're now 0-4 head to head w/ the Tigers in 2018. The revenge angle is still in play (boy, will today's three-pack resemble last night's) and because of that I'm back the road team again in this one. Only this time it's getting the additional 1.5 runs, a situation which would have resulted in a win last night. The White Sox have the fewest number of wins in all of baseball (15) and a pitcher that has an 0-4 team start record (w/ a 7.11 ERA and 1.684 WHIP) going tonight. That may not sound all that promising, but it's not like the Tigers are any "great shakes." The team from the Motor City came into this series as losers of five of their last six. Now they've won B2B games, but that doesn't bode too well for them considering win streaks of three or more have been rare this year. There's been only three of them previously, the longest at four straight. Obviously, one was the prior sweep of the White Sox. The other included a sweep of another last place team, Baltimore. The team is still averaging only 2.7 runs over its last seven games while batting a collective .216. The starter for the White Sox here is Hector Santiago. While his numbers are poor; they're largely skewed by one awful start against Minnesota earlier this month. In the other three, he's allowed 3 ER or less everytime. All three of those have resulted in one-run losses, again, a result that would be just fine given how we're playing this one. Allowing three solo home runs his last time out was simply a tough break as those were the only runs he gave up in the contest. Santiago will be opposed here by Francisco Liriano, who is off a shockingly good showing at Seattle on Sunday where he went eight innings and gave up only one hit. But I wouldn't look for a repeat of that from a starter who has a 4.64 ERA and 1.406 WHIP at home this year (4 starts). I won't be backing Chicago much this season, but I will here until they get a win over this division rival. You just don't see a team sweep another twice in a row very often, especially if it's division rivals. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-25-18 | Angels +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 43 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Angels (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. I've written about this in previous discussions about the Angels, but they've really struggled when taking on the American League's top teams. Against Boston, Houston and the Yankees, they're a combined 3-9 w/ all three wins coming against the Astros. They're 25-13 against "everyone else." They were swept by both the Red Sox and Yankees back in April. They get a chance to avenge the latter tonight and even though they are rather massive underdogs on the money line, I see them having a shot to pull it off. Certainly, they'll do no worse than a one-run defeat here. Take the +1.5. Now I am by no means attempting to minimize the accomplishments of Yanks' starter Luis Severino. Two years removed from an 0-8 record as a starter, Severino is now the most profitable pitcher to bet on (so far) here in 2018. He's got a 9-1 team start record (+8.0 units) and absolutely deserves it, given a corresponding 2.35 ERA and 0.969 WHIP. He's had only one non-quality start and that was the loss in Boston back on April 10th. He did face the Angels in the previous series and held them to three runs over seven innings. However, that was still only a one-run victory as the Yankees needed runs in the 9th and 10th innings to come out ahead. In fact, two of the Yankees' wins in that three game sweep last month were of the one-run variety. We can live w/ that result here. The Yankees may have scored 10 or more runs in three of the last four games, but for just the second time in the last month, they're coming off B2B losses. Those came at Texas of all places. A big reason I feel that the Angels are a tremendous value here is their 16-5 road record is the best in baseball and they are averaging an impressive 5.9 runs per game. Shohei Ohtani will no longer be starting in this series, but he'll still hit and he's coming off a strong game yday where he had two doubles, leading an 8-1 win at Toronto. Andrew Heaney will be the one starting Friday and getting hit for four unearned runs his last time out snapped a string of four consecutive quality starts. He's allowed five or less hits in five straight starts, giving up just 4 ER total. Note that the Yankees are just 5-5 the L10 games after going 17-1 their previous 18. It makes sense that they're cooling off following such a ridiculous run and that cooling off period should extend into this weekend. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +1 | Top | 94-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
8* Houston (9:05 ET): While the Eastern Conference Finals is being controlled by homecourt advantage, over in the West, the zig-zag theory has held firm as the loser of the previous game has stormed back to win each of the last three games. It was Houston's turn in Game 4 as they pulled the upset in Oakland, 95-92 as nine-point underdogs. I'm proud to say that I was on the dog there as the Rockets essentially "saved" their season following an embarrassing 45-point loss in Game 3 just two nights earlier. The zig-zag theory indicates tonight would be the Warriors' time to shine, however, the series has now shifted back to Houston. I've actually been on the Rockets in every game in the series, feeling that they're undervalued, and I'm not wavering from that viewpoint here in a spot where the "world" figures to be on Golden State. We're certainly not accustomed to seeing final scores in the 90's from either the Warriors or Rockets, so the fact that Tuesday's game ended up 95-92 is definitely quite shocking. These are, after all, the two top offensive teams in the league (both in efficiency and points per game). The fact that the Rockets averaged just 90 PPG in the two games at Golden State and were still able to come away w/ a split should actually have them feeling quite well about themselves. Because they average 113.9 points per game at home and should be considered a virtual lock to improve upon the shooting of the last two games, each of which saw them shoot just 39 percent from the floor. In particular, we should see them improve from three-point range where they were just 23 of 72 the L2 games. In the two home games in this series, Houston scored 106 and 127 pts. Now Golden State is going to improve upon its own 39% shooting from Game 4 as well. They shot better than 50% from the floor in each of the first three games. But I'm not sure they get to that level here. Even if they do, they still have to win, which is not easy to do for the road team in Houston. The Rockets are 40-9 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by 9.2 PPG. They are also 52-14 SU this year when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella take the floor together. Consider that Golden State jumped out to a 12-0 lead in Game 4, led by 12 again in the fourth quarter and still lost. And that was at home! Those advantages won't be present here in Houston. While both may end up playing, Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala (the latter being questionable) are not 100% and that has an impact on a shortened Warriors' rotation that really can't play its bigs due to the Rockets' "small-ball" lineups. 8* Houston |
|||||||
05-24-18 | Astros v. Indians +1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -144 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cleveland (6:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Indians at +1.5. It's a revenge spot for the Tribe, and specifically starter Mike Clevinger, who came out on the losing end to the Astros and Charlie Morton last Saturday. The same two starters face off again here as the teams will play four more against one another this weekend after the Astros won two of three in their home park last weekend. The "immediate revenge" situation is one of my favorites in MLB handicapping as you take the losing starter from the first meeting, figuring he (and the team) will be highly motivated. Add in the fact Cleveland is at home here and we can get an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at a decent price) and it's a "no-brainer" to me. Houston's pitching staff has easily been baseball's best in 2018, but Cleveland is one of the few teams w/ the capability of matching them. Case in point, the Indians were able to win a game yday in Chicago despite scoring only one run. In fact, they held the Cubs to just one run total in two games at Wrigley. So is the fact they've allowed just 12 runs over the last six games. Clevinger has given up 3 ER or fewer in seven of his nine starts this season and that includes last week vs. Houston where he allowed three in 6 1/3 IP. Four walks (season-worst) did burn him. But it was also Clevinger's first loss of '18 after starting 3-0 w/ a 2.70 ERA. Be careful about criticizing Cleveland's .500 record as they've outscored opponents by 28 runs over the course of the season. Houston has the best run differential in all of baseball (+110) and has won three straight after their own sweep of a NL opponent (Giants). Morton is 6-0 (6-3 TSR) w/ a 1.94 ERA and 0.934, which almost seems unfair given the other names in this rotation (Keuchel, Cole, Verlander). But winning by multiple runs in Cleveland should prove tricky for the Astros. The Indians are averaging a strong 5.8 runs per game at Progressive Field and aren't priced this way too often. Morton has also only had to make two road starts so far and his last one (5.5 vs. Arizona) was easily his weakest of the season as he finished w/ more walks than strikeouts and lasted just five innings. That was in a NL park as well w/ no DH. The Indians do no worse than a one-run loss in this revenge spot. 8* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-23-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | Top | 83-96 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, after seemingly being written off after the first two games, the Cavs have stormed back to tie the Eastern Conference Finals at two games apiece. Now we head back to Boston for Game 5 where the Celtics have not lost the entire postseason. They're a perfect 9-0, both SU and ATS, here at TD North Bank Garden w/ the vast majority of the wins coming by double digits. Both Games 1 and 2 of this series were decided by DD as the Celtics won by 25 and 13 pts. But there's probably something to the fact that Cleveland has held a double digit lead in each of the last three games, largely holding it for the majority of the previous two. I'm willing to put my money w/ LeBron James as it would appear the lack of their own "go-to" option is finally starting to catch up w/ Boston. After shooting 51% from the floor in Game 1, the Celtics have not shot the ball well the rest of the series. They're at just over 41% for the last three games and that includes a 25 of 81 mark from three-point range. Defensively, Cleveland has largely been a lot better in the playoffs than they were in the regular season (when they ranked a woeful 28th in efficiency). For the entire postseason, the Cavs are allowing just 101.7 PPG, which is a lower average than the defensive-minded Celtics! Now Boston's scoring typically goes up here at home. It would be easy to say that they'll regain lost form here in Game 5. But Cleveland is actually 9-5 SU here in TD North Bank Arena in this second era of LeBron. It was easy to forget after the first two games, but the Celtics don't have their best player (Kyrie Irving) and I'm not sure who they can count on - consistently - to counteract James. LeBron is the difference maker here as he turned in yet another 40+ pt effort in Game 4 (44 to be exact), albeit one w/ "only" five rebounds and three assists. He is averaging 33.7 PPG in the playoffs. Though they led wire to wire in Game 4, the Cavs had a lot of miscues (which can easily be corrected) that allowed that game to stay closer than it should have been. Namely turnovers, seven of them coming from LeBron. He'll need some help from the supporting cast obviously, but I sense a big game coming from James tonight as for the first time in the series, we'll see the road team get a win. 10* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the second time in three games, the Rockets were humiliated by the Warriors as they lost Game 3 by an embarrassing 45-point margin. Once they got down, it was a total laydown "effort" which saw them get outscored 38-18 in the fourth quarter. Steph Curry finally came alive for the Warriors, scoring 35 pts on 13 of 23 shooting. That was more points than he had in Games 1 and 2 combined (34) when he was 2 for 13 from three-point range. At one point, before catching fire late in Game 3, he was 3 for 19 from three-point range for the series. As for Houston, they shot just 39.5% overall for the game. This shapes up like a classic "zig zag" spot in the NBA playoffs where you take the team that got blown out the last game. That's precisely what I'll do as this is a big number for a Rockets team that was favored in both home games. You don't see the Rockets lose that big or score that little very often. Sunday marked just the third time all season that they were held below 85 points. They came back and won the next game after both such occasions. They are also 7-3 SU off a double digit loss this season. They have yet to drop B2B games this postseason, coming back from their lone loss in the Minnesota series w/ a 19-pt win (on the road) and then their lone loss in the Utah series w/ a 21-pt win (also on the road). Of course, the also rebounded from losing Game 1 of this series w/ a 22-point win in Game 2 (at home). So that's an average margin of victory of 21 PPG when off a loss in the playoffs. Not saying that will happen here, but it's illustrative of how the team doesn't play poorly in B2B games. Conversely, the Warriors are just 3-6 ATS when leading in the series during these playoffs. Everyone has been quick to proclaim "the return of Curry," but he really didn't get going until Game 3 was out of reach. Andre Iguodala has been listed as "doubtful" for tonight w/ a knee injury. Getting back to the Houston supporting cast, we saw Eric Gordon, P.J. Tucker and Trevor Ariza combine for 68 points (on 23 of 33 shooting!) in Game 2. That same trio had just 23 total pts (8 of 24 shooting) in Game 3. They should, collectively, have a bounce back effort tonight. Remember that Houston is 51-14 SU this year when another trio - James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Capella - all play. 10* Houston |
|||||||
05-22-18 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
6* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run play only where I am backing the Marlins at +1.5. I did the same yday and unfortunately the team "forgot to score," dropping a tough 2-0 decision on the road to the Mets, who are now 4-0 this season vs. the Fish. They swept them back during an 11-1 start, but since then NY has largely floundered under first year skipper Mickey Callahan, going just 13-18 overall. Keep in mind they've also now won four straight, so the slide had been much worse prior to this, their longest win streak since that 11-1 start. But I see Miami doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight as they still have revenge and there are "key indicators" that they are the "sharp side" here. Take the +1.5. Incredibly, last night was the seventh time already that the Marlins have been shutout this season. It was also the second time in the last five games, a stretch which has seen them get held to two runs or fewer four times. But the scoring should come tonight against Zach Wheeler, who has been one of the "weak links" of the Mets' rotation so far. Of course, you could have said the same for last night's starter, Jason Vargas, but look what he did. Still, Wheeler has a 5.92 ERA and 1.553 WHIP through seven starts this year and has been particularly bad here at home w/ a 9.56 ERA and 2.062 WHIP. The team is 0-3 when he starts here at Citi Field as well as 0-3 his L3 starts overall. Last time out, he gave up six runs in just four innings in what turned out to be an ugly 12-1 loss to the Blue Jays, an American League opponent that was playing w/o the DH. Miami looks to have the better starter on the mound again tonight. Last night, Elieser Hernandez pitched well enough to win, but the offense failed to support him. Tonight, we have Caleb Smith, who is off one of his weaker efforts to date, but has also pitched well against the Mets before. Back on 4.10, he allowed just three runs in five innings, but Jacob deGrom and the Mets still won 8-6, thanks to a four-run rally over the final two innings (obviously not Smith's fault). Smith had allowed 2 ER or fewer in four straight starts prior to his last one. Something to keep in mind about Vargas' performance for the Mets last night as that his previous turn in the rotation had been skipped (due to him pitching so poorly), so he was working on extended rest. That is NOT the case here w/ Wheeler. The Mets are still only 27th in MLB in runs scored. 6* Run Line Miami (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-21-18 | Marlins +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Run Line Miami (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Marlins at +1.5. I probably don't have to tell you that it's been a very ugly start to the season for the Fish. They currently own the worst record in the National League (17-29) and the worst overall run differential in all of baseball (-88). Not that this should really come as any real surprise. Though the franchise has two World Series victories to its credit in its relatively brief 25-year history, virtually every other season has seemed only to serve ownership (i.e. their pocketbooks) and not the fanbase. When a Derek Jeter-led group purchased the Marlins in the offseason, an immediate teardown began (yet again) and all the signs of a last place campaign were present. Now that we've got all that out of the way, let's talk about why I think Miami can win this game! For starters, the team is a respectable 3-3 over its L6 games w/ one of those losses (yesterday's) coming by just one run (and that was after giving up six runs in the bottom of the ninth!). This is also a situation I like as they have revenge for a prior three-game sweep that took place back in April. That came at a time when the Mets were playing great baseball. They started 11-1 under 1st year skipper Mickey Callahan, but have since gone just 12-18 their L30 games and that includes a three-game sweep of Arizona over the weekend. The current Mets' win streak (three games) is their longest since beginning the season 11-1. I find it's difficult to sweep the same opponent twice in a row, especially if it's a division foe. That's why I look for the Marlins to do no worse than a one-run loss in this game. In that D'backs-Mets series, I was 2 for 2, cashing the Mets on Friday and then the Under yesterday. In both instances, I leaned heavily on the Mets' starters, who were Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard. But I don't dare endorse Monday's starter, Jason Vargas, who comes in w/ a very ugly 13.86 ERA and 2.674 WHIP after three starts. All three have been Mets' losses and they've been outscored in those games by a combined score of 30-4! Even worse is that two of the games came against Cincinnati and San Diego, who are the "other" last place teams in the NL. So there's hope for Miami here, especially if their starter Elieser Hernandez pitches the way he did in his big league debut last Wednesday. There, he gave up just one run (on a solo HR) and three hits in 5 IP and the team beat the Dodgers as +180 ML dogs. Don't forget that the Mets rank only 26th in MLB in runs per game. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-20-18 | Rockets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:05 ET): The Rockets tied up this best of seven Western Conference Finals w/ a convincing 127-105 win in Game 2. It feels as if that game took place "eons ago," (Wednesday to be exact), so allow me to remind you that Houston's back was really "up against the wall" in that one as the chances of them overcoming a 2-0 series deficit to the Warriors, with both losses coming at home, was next to nil. Now the scene shifts to Oakland for Game 3 and it's no surprise that the Dubs are prohibitive favorites to reassert control in the series. However, I see them being favored by too many here as I'll remind you that Houston was the better team - whether you're talking record, net efficiency or point differential - in the regular season. Take the points here. It's not as if the Rockets' postseason performance should result in any sort of "downgrade" here either. Like Golden State, they needed just five games to advance past their first two opponents. Tonight marks the first time in these playoffs that they will be an underdog. After basically failing to exceed their season average in points per game six straight times, Houston finally "woke up" offensively in Game 2, scoring 127 points on 51.1% shooting and they made 16 three-pointers. It's not like the team's scoring average dips that much on the road where they are averaging over 110 PPG for the season. They also have the best road record in the league mind you at 34-11 SU. They've won the L3 road games, one in Minnesota and two in Utah, by an average of almost 18 PPG (all by 13 or more). Now Golden State is obviously a "step up" from those two aforementioned teams (actually, SEVERAL steps up), but with the points this is more than "doable" for the Rockets and, in fact, I believe they can take this game straight up. Yes, Kevin Durant has been as good as any player not named "LeBron James" in these playoffs. But what about Steph Curry? He is averaging only 17.0 PPG and has missed 11 of 13 three-point attempts. The "knee-jerk" reaction would be to call for a breakout performance here in Game 3, but I'm not so sure of that. Plus, Houston scores so much that the Warriors' margin for error in covering this spread is pretty small. That's if they even win. Note that the Dubs are just 10-22 ATS when facing an opponent w/ a winning record the second half of the season. This one can go either way, so I'm definitely taking the points. 10* Houston |
|||||||
05-18-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Tigers at +1.5. This play is also a bit of an "about face" for me, though it's precisely the same situation I used (admittedly unsuccessfully) last night. That being, taking the losing pitcher in an "immediate revenge" situation as he's facing off against the same starter for a second consecutive outing. Here, we have Detroit's Michael Fulmer squaring off against Seattle's Felix Hernandez. King Felix and the M's got the best of Fulmer and the Tigers last Saturday, but I'm not quite sure that'll happen again as in yday's analysis, I did point out the myriad of issues Seattle is facing right now. I'll say that Detroit does no worse than a one-run loss Friday night. Fulmer did not pitch well last Saturday as he gave up six runs in 4 1/3 innings (allowed only five hits, but also three walks). It was the second straight start he allowed more runs than hits. Control has obviously been somewhat of an issue for him, but the bottom line is that he's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his eight starts this season. The Mariners lineup he faces this time around won't have Robinson Cano in it as he's been suspended for 80 games due to violating MLB's drug policy. That's a severe blow to a Seattle offense that could manage only two hits over the final six innings last night w/o either Cano or Nelson Cruz. It was the third time in four games that the M's were held to two runs or fewer and sixth straight game they were held to four or fewer. The Tigers have actually won five of six now w/ the only loss coming via shutout in Cleveland Wednesday. They are actually only three games below .500 right now. Though they did lose to Hernandez last week, it's not as if they didn't get to him as they scored five times in five innings off him. Make no mistake about it; this is no longer the "King Felix of old," the former Cy Young winner that was once unbeatable here at Safeco Field. He has a 5.66 ERA and 1.419 WHIP for the season (nine starts), so he should feel fortunate to have a 6-3 team start record coming into tonight. He's allowed 5 ER in B2B starts as well. As a team, the Mariners are actually being outscored by a full run per game at home. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-16-18 | Astros v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Angels (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Angels at +1.5. It was a brutal loss for the home team last night, one where they lost "coming from ahead," giving up four runs in the final two frames. The end result was 5-3 in the Astros' favor. That did come on the heels of a 2-1 win in the series opener Monday, so they now stand at 3-2 head to head w/ their main rival in the AL West this year. It is a little surprising to see that the Halos have a losing home record this season (11-13), but if you also take away two sweeps that they suffered at the hands of the Yankees & Red Sox, then they're a very impressive 25-11 against everyone else. Houston is absolutely to be respected, but LA won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. The Angels had to face Gerrit Cole (who has been ridiculous so far this season) yday and almost were able to pull out a victory. They took an early 2-0 lead thanks to the new top of the order, which has Mike Trout in the leadoff spot, followed by Justin Upton. Trout drew a walk in the first inning and Upton followed it w/ a HR, so look for the new lineup to become the regular one. Tonight, they'll face Justin Verlander, who is actually winless in May despite continuing to lead the AL in ERA. The problem has obviously been lack of run support as he's gotten just ONE run in his last 20 innings of work. LA pitchers have done a very good job in this series at limiting Houston hitting, holding them to just two runs total in 15 IP. Though he's pitched well against them since coming to the Astros, Verlander still has a 5.15 career ERA here at Angel Stadium. Starting opposite Verlander will be Garrett Richards, who has opposed him many times before. He actually came out on the wrong end of a pair of pitcher's duels late last season, but he's still 5-4 w/ a 3.28 ERA in his career vs. Houston. Unlike Verlander, the Angels' offense has been supportive of Richards, scoring at least four runs in seven of his eight starts in 2018. He's also helped himself by allowing 3 ER or less in six of the last seven. He hasn't given up more than five hits in any of the last seven starts. As impressed as I am w/ the Astros this year (1st in MLB in run differential), I don't see them dominating here as they managed just one run in the first 15 innings of the series before rallying yday. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): Though they failed me in Game 1 (fell victim to a second half "surge"), I'll come back w/ the Rockets again in Game 2. This is basically "must-win" territory for the home team, as they do not dare fall behind 0-2 w/ the series set to move back to Oakland. Now, they wouldn't be eliminated per se, but let's be honest, dropping B2B home games to the Warriors would be "death." While the Dubs shot well in Game 1 (52.5% overall), the same really can't be said for the Rockets (45.9% overall). They scored just 50 pts after halftime, which was the difference. As was Kevin Durant scoring 37 points. James Harden scoring 41 for Houston wasn't even enough. But w/ their backs against the wall, I'll take a Rockets team that is 11-3 SU off a SU loss as a favorite this season. The rationale for taking the Rockets here is essentially the same as it was for Game 1, only now amplified due to the situation. They've now lost only nine times in 48 tries at home this season w/ a point differential of nearly plus nine points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston. The Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs. I anticipate the Rockets shooting better as a team here in Game 2 compared to Game 1. Not since the first two games of the 1st round series vs. Minnesota have they been held under 110 pts in consecutive contests. Furthermore, Golden State is just 8-20 ATS off three or more consecutive victories this season. That includes an 0-2 SU/ATS mark here in the postseason as they've followed up their previous three game losing streaks w/ a SU loss both times. The Rockets should get more here from the players beyond the trio of Harden, Paul and Capella as well. 10* Houston |
|||||||
05-15-18 | Rangers +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
6* Run Line Texas (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This is a horrendous spot for the Mariners. Not only did they play three games over the weekend (doubleheader on Saturday), but they lost 2B Robinson Cano to a long-term injury (broken hand). Then, they had to head to Minnesota for a make-up game on Monday, which they somehow won 1-0 despite their reliever pitching through a bout of food poisoning. The game's only run came about in the eighth inning after a throwing error by Twins' 1B Logan Morrison. Meanwhile, Texas got a much needed off-day on Monday after being held to just three runs in three games by the Houston Astros. The Rangers' 2018 outlook is far from rosy at this point, but they should do no worse than a one-run loss here, given the circumstance. Yes, they struggled to score against the Astros, but that's the #1 pitching staff in baseball right now and they were 2:1 underdogs in every game. It's not like Seattle has some prolific offense as they average only 3.7 rpg at Safeco Field and could manage only the unearned run yday. Plus, they are w/o Cano. Oh, I should also mention that yday's game in Minnesota started an hour and a half late because of rain. Interestingly enough, Texas has been a better team on the road this season (9-10) than at home (7-16) and keep in mind that road record was even better before the visit to Houston. Mike Minor gets the start here for the Rangers. He is tied for the team lead in wins (3) even though his ERA and WHIP aren't exactly what you like to see. He did give up three home runs in his most recent start, but that number equaled what he'd allowed in his first six, so I don't think it's indicative of anything. Minor is also working here on extended rest. He has a 1.65 career ERA vs. Seattle, who counters w/ Mike Leake, who has started eight games this year and has a 5.72 ERA and 1.511 WHIP. Those numbers are worse than those of Minor, yet Leake somehow has a 5-3 team start record. Leake pitched well his last time out, but has yet to deliver B2B quality starts this season. So I think he's likely to have an off-night here and Texas will take advantage. 6* Run Line Texas (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 4 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:35 ET): Well, it certainly didn't take the media (both national & local) to write Cleveland off in this Eastern Conference Finals. After a Game 1 debacle that saw the Cavs lose by 25 points (108-83), it's all aboard the Boston train seemingly. I had the Celtics in Game 1 mind you, but have to admit that I was very surprised at the ease at which they prevailed. They got out to a big lead early and never looked back. It obviously won't be that easy in Game 2 and I'm going w/ the "zig zag" theory for Game 2, expecting a Cavaliers' bounce back. LeBron James in particular was bad in Game 1, getting held to 15 pts on 5 of 16 shooting (missed all five 3-pt attempts). Cleveland, one of the top offensive units in the game, shot just 36% as a team and was 4 of 26 from three-point range. That won't happen again and I'm on 'em for Game 2. While Cleveland couldn't hit water from a boat in Game 1, Boston - its starters in particular - could not miss. The Celtics finished the game at 51.2% from the field, but that's a little misleading as the starting five combined to go 34 of 59 from the field, which is an unconscious 57.6% overall. That quintent also accounted for 10 of the team's 11 made three-pointers. Needless to say, we won't be seeing that happen again, even if Cleveland is a somewhat deficient team at the defensive end. The Celtics are still perfect at home this postseason (8-0 SU and ATS) and 10-3 ATS overall in playoff games, but Cleveland has not lost B2B games in the playoffs. They are also 15-8 ATS as dogs this season. The Cavs have been held under 85 pts only two times previous to Game 1 this season. After both instances, they came back and won the next game. They are also 10-4 SU in that situation the L3 seasons. Boston, as good as it is defensively, had only held an opponent to 85 pts or less five times all season. Obviously, Cleveland is going to be better in Game 2 than they were in Game 1, but my call is that they'll be SIGNIFICANTLY better - to the point that we'll head back to Cleveland w/ the series knotted up at a game apiece. Don't forget James came into this series averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game this postseason. 8* Cleveland |
|||||||
05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -105 | 65 h 59 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): For the 1st time since Steve Kerr became the head coach of the Golden State Warriors (which was 2014), the Warriors do NOT have homecourt advantage in a playoff series. The Rockets won 65 games in the regular season, finishing seven games clear of the Dubs, thus getting the top spot in the Western Conference this year. Yet, they are they underdogs in this series and not even being given much credit at home. I think there's tremendous value on Houston in this series opener (and possibly Game 2?) as this is a team that has lost only eight times at home all season (in 47 games), winning by an average of 9.4 points per game. They, not Golden State, led the league in point differential and net efficiency rating during the year. They also won the regular season series, taking 2 of 3 games, including the only matchup here in Houston. Now the Warriors are by no means having a down season. Their numbers may not be as prolific as they were each of the last two seasons, but they've still lost only three playoff games in six series since Kevin Durant became a member of the team. But here's another stat for you: the Rockets are 50-5 straight up this season when the trio of James Harden, Chris Paul and Clint Cappella take the court together. This postseason, Houston has turned the ball over on less than 10 percent of its total possessions. That number would be an all-time playoff record if it holds. For the first time in the Kerr-era, Golden State faces an opponent that may not only be just as good as the Warriors offensively, but - gasp - possibly better! The Rockets also shocking allow fewer PPG than the Dubs. You won't find the Warriors as underdogs too often. Usually, it only happens when multiple star players are out for a stretch, like we saw earlier this season. Interestingly, they are just 1-5 ATS this year as dogs. They are also just 9-21 ATS in the second half of the season against teams w/ winning records. Neither of these teams have lost this year when playing w/ three or more days rest (both 7-0 straight up), although Houston is better ATS in that situation. Just like you don't find Golden State as underdogs too often, you won't find the Rockets as this short a favorite very often. I'm sure this is the shortest number they've had to lay at home all season when healthy. The Rockets have waited all year for this game and this series. They'll show up - big time - in Game 1. 10* Houston |
|||||||
05-14-18 | Indians v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 115 | 25 h 52 m | Show |
9* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Tigers at +1.5. Few will give the home team a chance in this one. After all, they've now dropped 11 in a row to the division rival Indians. That includes a four-game sweep in the Motor City last month. Furthermore, they are facing Carlos Carrasco in the series opener. Carrasco has certainly had the Tigers' number through the year as his team start record against them is 8-0 the L8 times he's gone against them. That includes a CG victory in the aforementioned sweep that took place last month as he allowed just one run on three hits. However, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with - at this price - is too good of an opportunity to pass up, in my opinion. The Tigers were not a good team last year as they "led" the American League w/ 98 losses. This year, things aren't looking quite as bleak considering their record currently stands at 17-22 and they're only three games back of Cleveland despite getting swept. After splitting a doubleheader on Saturday, Detroit beat the Mariners on Sunday, 5-4, in walkoff fashion. They're now a very respectable 10-9 at home this year. While the everyday lineup has been ravaged by injuries (top four in batting order all out!), I see the home team doing no worse than a one run loss here. It helps having Michael Fiers on the mound. Monday's starter for the Tigers has pitched well against Cleveland in the past. It might not be as good as Carrasco has done against them, but Fiers is 2-1 w/ a 2.42 ERA in four career starts vs. the Tribe. He did not face them in the series last month. Fiers is coming off a strong effort where he held Texas to just two runs and six hits in 5 1/3 innings. He was pulled after just 79 pitches, so he should be fresh here. As good as Carrasco has been vs. Detroit the L3 season, there is the matter of him having a 6.23 ERA and 1.385 WHIP his L3 starts. He did dominate his last time out, but that was in a National League park (no DH). Also, the Indians have been far from dominant this year. They did beat the lowly Royals yesterday, 11-2, but that win only served to get them a game above .500 and they remain a losing proposition at the betting window (-8.9 units). Especially on the road where they're only 7-10. 9* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-13-18 | Cavs v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 83-108 | Win | 100 | 36 h 34 m | Show |
8* Boston (3:35 ET): It's the same Eastern Conference Finals as last year with the Cavs taking on the Celtics. There are two rather significant differences from last year's matchup, which saw Cleveland win - rather easily - in just five games. One is that this year Boston has the homecourt edge. Two is that Kyrie Irving won't be suiting up - for either side. The Celtics thought they had pulled off a real "coup" in acquiring Irving from the Cavs via trade this past offseason. But he's missed the entire postseason w/ an injury and won't be a factor here. That hasn't stopped Boston from advancing so far, as they needed only five games to eliminate previously red hot Philadelphia. Interestingly, both teams were pushed harder in the first round (Cleveland by Indiana and Boston by Milwaukee) w/ each series going seven games while they made quicker work of their respective second round opponents than expected. Cleveland swept Toronto in the last round, an incredibly impressive performance considering the Raptors were the top seed and won 59 regular season games. While you can write off the Raptors as "choke artists" all you want (Cavs swept them in the 2nd round LY as well), there's no underselling the brilliance of LeBron James at this point. He's averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.0 blocks per game in the playoffs. But the big question here is what kind of help will he get? He got very little in the Indiana series before several players stepped up against Toronto. But the Celtics are a much better defensive team than the Raptors. They ranked #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. That's a far cry from the Cavaliers, who were 28th! Boston is a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS at home in the postseason. Incredibly, this will be the fourth time they will have been an underdog. It's pretty clear to me that this team has been wildly underrated in the wake of the Irving injury. They are 23-8 ATS as underdogs this season, including a perfect 10-0 ATS at home (9-1 SU). The Celtics finished the regular season w/ the best ATS record in the league. Contrast that w/ Cleveland, who was the WORST ATS team in the league and is still just 21-48 ATS as a favorite. Playing w/ three or more days rest, the Celtics are 4-1 SU/ATS while the Cavs are 0-3 SU/ATS. LeBron has been otherworldly, but I don't think that alone can be enough in Game 1. 8* Boston |
|||||||
05-09-18 | 76ers -1 v. Celtics | Top | 112-114 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): It's well-known that no team has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit to win a series in NBA playoff history. The chances of it happening here remain small, but the Sixers did stay alive for another day by taking Game 4, 103-92 as seven-point chalk. It's worth noting that Philly has been favored in every game during the series, so them falling behind three games to none was quite the shock. The price came down for Game 4 and I think remains at an appropriate price for Game 5 here in Boston. Remember that the Sixers were in control in Game 2 (led by as many as 22) and Game 3 was an overtime affair that certainly could have gone either way. They were able to win Game 4 despite a poor shooting effort. Boston has gotten by short-handed so far in the playoffs, but another body has dropped (Shane Larkin) and I'll call for the 76ers to stay alive for another day and take Game 5. The Sixers came into this series having won 20 of 21 games and were -400 on the money line to advance. In retrospect, that was pretty clearly a case of bad pricing by the oddsmakers, but the initial read still should be respected. Especially seeing as Boston has been far from dominant since winning Game 1. Sure, Philly was not going to be able to maintain its ridiculous winning percentage. I said that coming into the series when I took the Celtics (as home dogs) in the opener. Though they have not shot well in the series, charting the games, Philadelphia has had the better shot selection. We know Boston was #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but I suspect the Sixers' shots are about to start falling. TJ McConnell got the surprise start in Game 4 and led the way w/ 19 pts on 9 of 12 shooting. I suspect we'll see more of him here. The play of Ben Simmons has been a real "sore spot" for Sixers' fans in this series, but the good news is his shooting can only get better. Meanwhile, I just don't trust Boston to find consistent scoring w/o Kyrie Irving. Something not talked about enough w/ the Sixers is that the ranked in the top five in defensive efficiency (during the reg season), just like the Celtics. They've actually been better on the defensive end here in the playoffs. Boston has shot better than 46% in just three of their 11 playoff games so far. While I still have my doubts that the Sixers pull off the miracle (i.e. come back to win the series), I do think they'll force a Game 6 back at home. 10* Philadelphia |
|||||||
05-08-18 | Pelicans +13.5 v. Warriors | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (10:35 ET): ): It certainly would appear as if we're destined for a Rockets-Warriors Western Conference Finals. Both teams enter Tuesday up three games to one in their respective series and are at home tonight. The idea that the Pelicans could beat the Warriors three straight times seems pretty laughable to be honest, so it's only a matter of time before their season comes to a close. Anthony Davis and company are double digit dogs for Game 5 following a 118-92 loss in Game 4 Monday night. They have just two wins over Golden State in the last three seasons, Game 3 included. But they did cover the spread here in Oakland in Game 2 (lost by only five) and because everyone is going to be so quick to "write them off," I think there's value here. Take the points. It was a wire to wire win in Game 4 for the Dubs, led by Kevin Durant's 38 points. Steph Curry is back and he had 23 pts as well. The team has won its last 14 home playoff games (a streak that dates back to last season), so they have to be feeling confident coming into tonight. But let's not forget the call the pointspread the "great equalizer" for a reason. Golden State is only 18-26 ATS at home this year and was a bottom five team overall at the betting window during the regular season. The spread tonight is higher than it was in Games 1 and 2 and we can use that to our advantage. It's not like New Orleans is any weaker here than they were going into the first two games in Oakland. The Pelicans are 11-2 ATS overall their last 13 games. Golden State isn't the only team in this series that can score. New Orleans averages 111.6 PPG. Only the Warriors and Rockets averaged more during the regular season. A team that can score that much seems pretty dangerous as a double digit dog, no? Any team w/ Anthony Davis on its roster has a fighting chance in my opinion. Davis had 26 pts and 12 rebounds in Game 4 and that was considered an "off-night" as he committed a game-high six turnovers and was just 8 of 22 from the field. Game 3 was a different story, however, as he had 33 pts and 18 rebounds. He's averaging nearly 14 rebounds per game in the series in addition to more than 26 points. Consider this: since X-Mas, the Pelicans have been double digit dogs just two times (one was Game 2). They covered both time. 8* New Orleans |
|||||||
05-06-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +5 | Top | 100-87 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Just as I did in Game 2 of this series, I'll be using the old "zig zag theory" (taking ATS loser of previous game) here in Game 4. The zig-zag theory is by no means "foolproof," but I do think its often a way to seize upon some great value, particularly when taking an underdog that was blown out in last game. Game 1 saw Utah lose 110-96 (trailed by 25 at half), only to bounce back and stun the Rockets in Game 2, 116-108 as double digit road dogs. But Game 3 was a giant step back for the Jazz as they lost at home, 113-92. In six meetings w/ the Rockets this season, the Jazz have lost by double-digits five times. While that hardly sounds inspiring, that's not in any way indicated of what this team is capable of and remember I'm already 3-0 in this series. Take the points w/ the home dog. The big story coming into Game 4 is the status of starting Utah PG Ricky Rubio. He hasn't played since injuring his hamstring in the close out game of the Oklahoma City series, but the team is "optimistic" that he will play here today. With Rubio out of the lineup, rookie Donovan Mitchell has been forced into point guard duty and I think it's safe to say that move has affected his game for the worse. Mitchell is shooting just 32.2% for the series. As a team, Utah has not shot well in either loss this series as they were 41.7% overall from the field in Game 3 despite making 11 of 29 three-point attempts. But with or without Rubio, I'm willing to call for a bounce back as the Jazz are 31-14 SU at home this season, shooting 46.5%. They also allow only 97.1 PPG here. Remember this was the #2 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. As a home dog, they had been 7-3 straight up and against the spread prior to losing Game 3. Houston had allowed 50% shooting in four of its last five games before holding Utah in check Friday night. That includes both Games 1 and 2 in Houston. The Rockets are certainly the more talented team here, thanks to James Harden and Chris Paul, but have actually not been very good when one or both are off the floor. They're also just 21 of 73 from three-point range the L2 games. They took a lot more mid-range 2's in Game 3 and found success, but I wouldn't count on that happening again here. The Jazz are basically playing for their season tonight, so I expect a much better effort - on both ends of the floor from them. Remember what I said in my Game 2 analysis; this Jazz team hasn't lost B2B games (with the exception of the meaningless reg season finale/playoff opener) since before MLK Day. 10* Utah |
|||||||
05-04-18 | Dodgers v. Padres +1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Diego (9:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Padres +1.5. Now endorsements of this ballclub will be few and far between this season. But w/ the Dodgers coming off an emotional series w/ the rival D'backs, tonight sets up as an excellent "ambush" spot for the dog. Note the game and series takes place in Mexico City. After losing seven of eight to the D'backs to start the year, LA won each of the last two days, but they're still below .500 and seven games out of first place in the NL West. The only team below them is the Padres, but the Dodgers are closer to them than they are first place. I say that knowing full well that LA has outscored its opponents by 12 runs despite the losing record. But San Diego, who has revenge for a prior sweep, does no worse than a one-run loss here. All things considered, the +1.5 is a really cheap price. It was in San Diego that the Padres got swept by the Dodgers. It happened roughly two weeks ago w/ the Dodgers coming in and outscoring them 30-10 over the three games. Similar to here, LA was coming off a series against Arizona. At the time, it seemed like a "get well" spot and it was, but in the big picture signaled no real turnaround. The Dodgers have gone just 6-8 the L14 games. Only the hapless Reds have dropped more units at the betting window this season. Injuries, particularly the season-ender to Corey Seager, have really decimated the everyday lineup here. San Diego, by the way, arrives in Mexico City after an off-day. That's a big advantage in my view. Tonight's pitching matchup is a battle of prospects. Walker Buehler is the #1 rated prospect in the Dodgers' organization, as far as arms go, and gets the starting nod tonight. He's made two starts previous to tonight and gone five innings in both, allowing just two runs total (both last time out). Both resulted in wins for the team, but they were also against the Giants and Marlins, two bad teams. San Diego counters w/ their #7 rated pitching prospect, Joey Lucchesi. He's made six starts in 2018 and has a 2.78 ERA and 1.113 WHIP. The team has won three of his last four times out and there's been only one time all year where he gave up more than three runs (loss at Arizona). All things considered, the +1.5 is a nice luxury to have and is a strong value at the "going rate." 8* Run Line San Diego (+1.5) |
|||||||
05-03-18 | A's v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
analysis soon |
|||||||
05-02-18 | Jazz +11.5 v. Rockets | Top | 116-108 | Win | 100 | 57 h 34 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Game 1 of this second round series took place Sunday afternoon and was the fifth time this season that the Jazz and Rockets faced off. For a fifth time, it was Houston prevailing in lopsided fashion, doing so 110-96 as 11.5-pt chalk. The Rockets are now 5-0 SU and ATS against the Jazz this year, every win coming by a minimum of 11 pts. The average margin of victory has been 16.8 points per game. As someone who "stood on the sidelines" for the Game 1 spread (I instead cashed the Under), I have to say "isn't it time for Utah to play Houston close?" Now not having Ricky Rubio (strained left hamstring) definitely hurts - both literally and figuratively - but I believe the Jazz can overcome his absence by playing their usual brand of defense (#2 in efficiency during regular season) and at least cover the spread here. Take the points. Game 1 was never really close as Houston jumped out to 13-point lead by the end of the first quarter and pretty much coasted from there. They led by 25 at halftime and by 18 entering the fourth quarter. The Rockets shot 53.1% from three-point range, making 17 of 32 attempts w/ seven of those coming from James Harden (career playoff-high). Harden had 41 points, eight rebounds and seven assists for the game as the usually defensively-minded Jazz had no answers. I had thought the Houston-Minnesota series would offer up a blueprint for Utah to defend Harden, but it was to no avail. If you recall, early on in Round 1, Harden struggled when the T'wolves sank their big man, Karl-Anthony Towns, in the paint to prevent drives. With Rudy Gobert in the middle, I thought the Jazz would do better than they did in Game 1. Fortunately for them, it was only "one game." Utah missed 15 of its 22 three-point attempts and missing 9 of 22 free throws certainly didn't help matters either. I expect the team to improve in both areas for Game 2. Something to keep in mind here is that the Jazz closed the regular season on a 29-6 run. While there was a stretch back in March where they dropped three of five, they haven't lost B2B games (save for the reg season finale (meaningless)/playoff opener) since before MLK Day! Including the playoffs, this is a team that has won 33 of 42 games and getting double digits. I think they can keep it close here against Houston, for a change. The quick turnaround between series did Utah no favors (eliminated OKC on Friday), but here they've had two days in between games. Houston is just 5-10 ATS this season playing w/ exactly two days rest. 10* Utah |
|||||||
05-01-18 | Cavs v. Raptors -6 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): LeBron James is the best basketball player in the world (and no worse than the 2nd best player ever), but Cleveland is not a great team. Throughout my analysis of their 1st round series vs. Indiana, I mentioned how the Cavs finished the regular season ranked 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. That was ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix. Speaking of that 1st round series (which just ended Sunday, mind you), it went the distance (seven games) and the Cavs four wins were by a combined 14 points. None were by greater than four. Meanwhile, two of their three losses were by 18 or more points and they were outscored by 40 pts in the series. That's the worst total point differential for any team that won a playoff series since 1984! Now Toronto has an ugly past to overcome here. Namely, they've only won two playoff Game 1's in franchise history, one of those coming in the last round vs. Washington. They've been eliminated each of the last two years by the Cavaliers, even getting swept last year. However, there are signs that 2018 could be a little different. Namely, the Raptors have the homecourt advantage this year. In the regular season, they owned the best home point differential in the entire league. They won all three home games in the 1st round vs. Washington, all by eight points or more. Yes, they did drop two of three regular season meetings w/ Cleveland. But both losses came on the road and were by six points or less. The one meeting that took place here North of the Border (back in January) saw the Raptors win by 34 points! Had I told you before the series that Cleveland would allow only 100.6 points per game to Indiana, you would probably assume that they'd advance w/ relative ease, not be taken the distance. But despite allowing more than 101 pts just one time, the Cavs needed a full seven games. Tristan Thompson and George Hill stepped up big on Sunday, but overall James had little to no help in the series. LeBron led the team in all five major statistical categories and scored 3x as much as any other Cav. The quick turnaround between series does the visitors no favors here. Let's not forget Cleveland barely outscored its opponents during the regular season. It would take another superhuman effort from James just for the Cavs to have a chance here and I can't see him averaging 34.4 PPG on 55% shooting again like he did vs. the Pacers. 10* Toronto |
|||||||
04-30-18 | 76ers v. Celtics +3.5 | Top | 101-117 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): Well, according to oddsmakers and pundits, it seems as if a "changing of the guard" has already taken place even before this series has begun. Going into Sunday, Philadelphia was the betting favorite to win the Eastern Conference (though that could change based on Cleveland advancing). But what is for certain is that the Sixers are favored not only to win this series (-400 odds last I looked!); they're favored in Boston for Game 1. Given the Celtics' lack of health, maybe that shouldn't be a surprise. Plus, Philly has won 20 of its last 21 games. But I'll hang my hat w/ the home dog that is getting no respect here, noting the fact they were #1 in defensive efficiency during the regular season. A long layoff also could leave the 76ers a tad rusty. Take the points. These teams met four times during the regular season w/ Boston winning three of them. But not much can be ascertained by those individual results, considering the Celtics had Irving and the Sixers hadn't totally matured yet. The last meeting, which took place all the way back on January 18th, saw Philadelphia win here in Boston by a score of 89-80. Going into that game, the Sixers' record was 20-20. They finished the regular season at 52-30 and the finished off the Heat in just five games in Round 1. Three of the four wins were by double-digits, but don't think for a second that the Celtics are on par w/ the Heat. The homecourt advantage in Boston is very real as is evident by the fact the Celtics won all four home games in Round 1. Boston is also 20-7 ATS as a dog this season, including a perfect 8-0 at home (7-1 straight up)! So, when they're undervalued like this, it's often the best time to strike. Going to back to them losing the last regular season matchup to the Sixers, Brad Stevens' team is a remarkable 65-36 ATS playing w/ revenge the L3 seasons, including 20-5 ATS this season. Now, I realize they don't have Irving and could also be without Jaylen Brown in Game 1. But the defense is the key. After a shaky start to the Milwaukee series, the Celtics allowed an average of just 93.3 PPG the last three games. The Sixers, as successful as they've been down the stretch, still allow an average of 107.1 PPG on the road. Then there is the matter of that 20-1 SU stretch, will be difficult (if not impossible) to maintain. 10* Boston |
|||||||
04-28-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 101-123 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
10* Golden State (10:35 ET): Both of these teams made it look pretty easy in Round 1. With Golden State, that really wasn't much of a surprise as they were facing a depleted San Antonio squad (minus Kawhi Leonard) that also was dealing w/ the wife of their head coach passing away. The Warriors didn't sweep, but considering they were w/o Steph Curry (questionable to play tonight), finishing the series in five games has to be considered a "victory" in every sense of the word. Three of the four victories came by double digits. As for New Orleans, arguably no team in the playoffs has exceeded expectations any more than they have. They shockingly swept Portland, also going 4-0 ATS in the process. The Pelicans have now covered nine in a row, but I think they're overvalued coming into this series. Lay the points. Over the last three seasons, New Orleans has beaten Golden State only once in 11 tries. That came in the final regular season meeting this year, 126-120, right here in Oakland. That game was played earlier this month and while the Warriors did have Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson all active, they were a different team at the time. All three of those players, in addition to Curry, had missed time due to injury and were still trying to "get their legs back." Both teams shot the ball remarkably well in that game, but Golden State getting to the free throw line only 11 times (and making just 7) really hurt in the end. The "wild card" here is Curry's potential return, which will happen sometime in this series, possibly as early as tonight. Incredibly, New Orleans is 2-26 SU the L28 meetings w/ Golden State, including a four-game sweep in the first round back in 2015. That sweep was the only time previous to this year that Anthony Davis had ever been in the postseason. He certainly made this chance count w/ a dominant effort against the Blazers as he averaged 33 points and 12 rebounds per game. But I see no way the Pelicans perform as well here as they did in Round 1. Of the eight playoff teams in the Western Conference, New Orleans had the worst point differential in the regular season. I think the draw vs. Portland was a fortunate one as the Blazers were lucky to finish third in the Conference. The Pelicans' poor defensive numbers may also come back to haunt them in this series as they gave up 110.4 PPG in the reg season, most among all playoff teams. Golden State was again the top team in offensive efficiency this year and led the league w/ a 113.5 PPG scoring average. The Dubs are also always underrated defensively as they finished tied for seventh in efficiency during the regular season. This is a team that has lost only two games in its last five playoff series. Curry or no Curry, I see the Warriors taking Game 1 rather easily. 10* Golden State |
|||||||
04-27-18 | Rays +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Its the other of the two games in this package where the team I'm taking has revenge for a prior sweep. In the case of the Rays, they are actually 1-6 head to head w/ Boston so far this season, having beaten them on Opening Day, but then losing six in a row. That includes a three-game sweep in Fenway earlier this month. Now, a lot of teams have been losing to Boston in what has been a historically great start for them. Following that Opening Day loss to the Rays, the Red Sox would go onto win 17 of their next 18 games and they now stand at 19-5 following consecutive wins at Toronto. But Tampa Bay also comes into this series hot, having won six in a row. I'm confident in saying they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here as the RL is a solid price. It also would appear that TB has the starting pitching edge tonight w/ Blake Snell taking the mound. Snell has a 2.54 ERA and 0.988 WHIP in five starts and he's been particularly strong in the last three where his ERA and WHIP are 1.40 and 0.828 respectively. During that stretch, he's three runs in 19 1/3 IP (allowed 1 run in every start) on just 10 hits and has a 25-5 KW ratio (all five walks came in one start, but he doesn't have any the last two). The Rays have also won all three games. Really, he has only one bad start and it came at Yankee Stadium. The other four, he's allowed 1 or 0 ER every time. He was a hard luck loser to Boston in his 1st start of '18 as he threw 5 2/3 scoreless innings of three-hit ball only for the team to fall 1-0 at home. Dating back to last seaosn, Snell is now 8-2 w/ a 2.74 ERA his L15 starts. In this historic start of theirs, Boston has had some good fortune, namely a MLB-best 7-1 record in one-run games. No one else is even close to that. All three games in the previous series (vs. Toronto) were decided by one run. So calling for a one-run game here is not w/o precedent and either way it would be a win for us. But I also wouldn't be surprised to see the streaking Rays "steal one" here either, not just b/c of the revenge angle, but also b/c they are facing Drew Pomeranz, who simply was not very good in his first outing. It took place exactly one week ago and while the Red Sox won, Pomeranz allowed three runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work. Here, he'll be facing a Rays lineup that has scored 46 runs during its win streak, including eight or more in each of the last five games. Again, no worse than a one-run loss for the revenge-minded Rays here. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5) |
|||||||
04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -107 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): The home team has won and covered all five games in this series w/ the Celtics now holding a 3-2 lead after Tuesday's 92-87 win as 4.5-pt favorite. Personally, I went w/ the Under, which was a ridiculously easy winner (cashed by 25 pts) after each of the first four games finished Over the total. So now Milwaukee is facing elimination, but back home where they took both Games 3 and 4. Their second win came on a last-second tip-in by Giannis Antetokounmpo, but because Game 3 was so lopsided, the Bucks have actually outscored the Celtics in the series. But something I predicted for Game 5 came to fruition and that's Milwaukee's hot shooting of the past few games would start to cool off, thanks to a Boston defense which ranked #1 in efficiency during the regular season. Sure enough it did as the Bucks shot just 36.8% in Game 5. I'll hang my hat w/ that Boston defense yet again for Game 6, this time taking the points. The Celtics are no slouch when it comes to getting points. They are 20-6 ATS as dogs this season. They are also 28-14 ATS in road games. We've already touched on the defense, which has been the calling card under HC Brad Stevens. The Celtics allowed the fewest number of points per game in the regular season in addition to being first in efficiency. The loss of several players, most notably Kyrie Irving, has not and should not effect them at all on that end of the floor. Now, offensively, the team has struggled to shoot the ball in this series. They've shot just 43.8% in this series and that percentage would be much lower had they not connected at a 53.3% clip. But just like Milwaukee's previously hot shooting was due to hit a "speedbump," I feel Boston's is due to improve. Marcus Smart is also now back, remember. Milwaukee is the only entrant in the playoff field that was outscored during the regular season. They trailed by as many as 16 points in Game 5. It was 18 turnovers from the Celtics, who were also scoreless for a five-minute stretch in the third quarter, that kept the Bucks in the game. If you followed my excellent NCAA Tournament run, then you already know how much I value play on the defensive end of the floor and especially when the better defensive team is getting points. The Bucks are also just 14-26-3 ATS in home games this season. 10* Boston |
|||||||
04-23-18 | Thunder +5.5 v. Jazz | Top | 96-113 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (10:35 ET): The Thunder fell behind in this best of seven series, two games to one, w/ a 115-102 loss on Friday. After taking Game 1, OKC has now dropped back to back games and would be in REAL trouble were they to lose again here. Oddly, after getting off to poor starts in both home games, the Thunder raced out to a 30-22 advantage at the end of the 1st quarter in Game 3. But they found themselves down by halftime and a surprising triple double from Jazz PG Ricky Rubio led to the final result. The Thunder shot the ball well enough, but were outrebounded badly. Given how Utah tends to defend here in Salt Lake, wasting a good shooting night can end up as a big missed opportunity when viewed in retrospect. But I'll take the points here in Game 4 as I expect the Thunder to play better. I'd go ahead and guarantee that we won't be seeing another triple double from Rubio, but Russell Westbrook has already beaten me to the punch in that regard. Westbrook has declared that he will see to it. It would also help if the All-Star point guard shot better than 5 for 17 like he did in Game 3. I suspect he will and thus finish w/ more than 14 points. Though he continues to post good all-around numbers, Westbrook has really struggled in both Thunder losses in this series, going for just 33 total pts on 12 of 36 shooting. Paul George has played well, but Carmelo Anthony has been persona non grata, averaging just 15.3 PPG in the series. The Thunder are 7-4 SU off a double digit loss this season and rarely are a dog in that role (as they are here). Utah was my 10* Game of the Week in Game 2 (plus the points) and rewarded me there w/ a straight up victory. I wasn't surprised to see them win Game 3 either, but now I question the number of points they're being asked to lay. This has been a great team down the stretch obviously as they've won 30 of their last 37 games overall. But in eight meetings this year w/ the Thunder, they've been favored by more than 1.5 pts just twice and Friday was the first time. The Jazz also shot well in Game 3, better overall than the Thunder in fact, and I don't see them hitting 52.5% overall from the field again. Nor do I see B2B blowouts, so again, taking the points is the way to go. 10* Oklahoma City |
|||||||
04-22-18 | Reds +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -160 | 16 h 8 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (2:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Reds +1.5. It certainly hasn't been a good season in Cincy thus far, especially when playing the division rival Cardinals. Not only are the Reds a MLB-worst 3-17 overall, but they're now 0-6 head to head with St. Louis and facing the prospect of getting swept for a second time by the Redbirds, Sunday at Busch Stadium. Revenge for a prior sweep is one of my favorite angles in MLB handicapping, so I thought taking the Reds +1.5 on Friday was a good idea. But they lost that game, their first since firing manager Bryan Price, 4-2. Of course, yday saw them lose by only one run, 4-3. I'll go "back to the well" on Sunday and call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. The Reds were "oh, so close" to picking up their third win of the season on Saturday as they tied the game w/ a three-run seventh, only to cede the eventual game-winning HR (by Yadier Molina) in the bottom half of the frame. But Cincy had a chance to at least tie things back up in the top of the ninth when they had the bases loaded, but Scooter Gennett hit into a game-ending DP. It's now 10 straight losses to St. Louis (dating back to last season) for the Reds, their longest losing streak in this division rivalry since dropping 11 straight back in 1949. At some point, they have to break through, right? What you may have already noticed yourself is that the ML is significantly lower here than it was for either of the first two games in the series. Note that St. Louis is just 1-3 this season as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range at home. They're also below .500 in that same range over the L3 seasons. I suspect that the dropping of the price has to do w/ facing Miles Mikolas, who has a 4.26 ERA so far (three starts) and opponents are batting .250 against him. Mikolas will be working on a full seven days' rest here as he was jumped in the rotation by Carlos Martinez (started yday) after the Cards had two rainouts in three days. A veteran of the Japanese circuit, Mikolas did not fare too well in his first start here at Busch, giving up four runs. I do not expect him to pitch as well as Martinez did yday. The good news here for Cincinnati is that today's starter Luis Castillo was on the mound the last time the team won (that would be Monday in Milwaukee). Castillo had eight strikeouts in 6 2/3 IP vs. the Brew Crew and has been a bit unlucky in giving up 11 runs overall this season as he's allowed only 16 hits in 17 2/3 IP. The Reds' bullpen, prior to losing yday, had been working on a scoreless streak of 18+ innings. The worm HAS to turn for Cincy here, at least for one day. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) |
|||||||
04-21-18 | Blazers +7 v. Pelicans | Top | 123-131 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
10* Portland (5:05 ET): Needless to say, the third-seeded Trail Blazers did NOT expect to find themselves in the current situation going into Game 4. That would be down 0-3 in the series and facing elimination. They've been thoroughly outclassed by the Pelicans w/ the margin of defeat growing greater every game. But, as a result of that, we've seen a massive swing in the pointspread from Game 1. After being six-point favorites for Games 1 & 2, the Blazers are now six-point DOGS here in Game 4. I came into this series thinking New Orleans was the undervalued team (cashed them as a 10* in Gm 1) and was proven right, but now things have shifted too far in the other direction. It's predictable, given what we have seen in the first three games, but I can't see Portland going down w/o a fight and this is too many points to lay for the Pelicans. Take the points. New Orleans thoroughly dominanted Game 3 here at home, taking a 64-45 advantage by halftime and never looking back. They are the highest seed (6th) to take a 3-0 series led in the NBA playoffs since '01, so yes, this is a surprise. Personally, I didn't buy Portland as the third best team in the West coming out of the regular season, but a case could also be made that the Pelicans weren't the sixth best team either. They do have a virtually identical net efficiency rating compared to Portland (which is why I thought they were the undervalued team in Gms 1 & 2), but now "the shoe is on the other foot." Also, the Pelicans' regular season point differential ranked 15th out of the 16 playoff teams and was just ninth in the West. There's all sorts of finger-pointing going on in the Pacific Northwest right now and for good reason. Head coach Terry Stotts may not survive if his team is swept here as his career playoff record is very bad (12-27 SU). Also, leading scorer Damian Lillard has REALLY struggled with the different defensive looks New Orleans has thrown at him in this series. He's averaging only 18.3 PPG in the series (down from almost 27.0 in the reg season) on 32.7% shooting, including 8 of 25 from three-point range. I have to believe he's going to play better here in Game 4. At the same time, I just can't see the Pelicans' Nikola Mirotic playing as well as he did (30 points) in Game 3. No team seeded sixth or lower has ever swept a series since the NBA did away w/ the best of five first round scenario some time ago. The Blazers are 6-2 ATS this season following a losing streak of three or more games. 10* Portland |
|||||||
04-20-18 | Celtics +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -118 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
8* Boston (9:35 ET): While it appears that the oddsmakers are almost "inviting" Celtics' money here, this is the other game on the Friday NBA card (see Toronto-Washington) where blindly taking the "zig zag theory" seems like a fool's errand. While the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. Case in point, after squeaking out a win and cover (needed overtime) in Game 1, Boston was far more dominant in Game 2, winning 120-106 even though they actually closed as one-point dogs at some shops. Yes, the Bucks have outshot the Celtics in both games so far, but should we be counting on that happening again and if not, it's hard to make an arguement for them, especially w/ what looks like a massive coaching advantage for the Celtics. Take the points. Bucks' HC Joe Prunty would be better served playing his starters longer, and together more, moving forward. When they're on the court, Milwaukee has arguably looked like the better team in this series. But w/ a deeper roster (despite a myriad of injuries!) and far superior coaching, the Celtics have counteracted that. They may not have Kyrie Irving for the playoffs, but Jaylen Brown has stepped up for Brad Stevens' team, scoring 50 pts in the first two games. This is just far too many points for the top defensive team in the league (in terms of efficiency) to be getting in this spot. The Celtics are a ridiculous 19-5 ATS as underdogs this season. Remember that Milwaukee is the ONLY team in the playoffs that was outscored in the regular season. Boston finished #1 at the betting window during the regular season as well, going 48-30-4 ATS overall. I already mentioned how profitable they've been as underdogs, well, they're also 27-13-1 ATS on the road. If you want to count them as underdogs from Game 2 (and like I said, they did close +1 at some shops), they are 12-1 ATS this year coming off a SU win as as dog. Consider that the Bucks shot almost 60% from the floor in Game 2 and still lost by double digits. That's pretty incredible. The likelihood of Milwaukee shooting that well again tonight, even at home, is minimal at best. They even trailed by as many as 20, again despite shooting nearly SIXTY PERCENT from the floor! If the Bucks do win here, I can't see them doing so by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for. 8* Boston |
|||||||
04-20-18 | Reds +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Run Line Cincinnati (8:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. There are three factors that have led me to take the beleaguered Reds in this spot. One is that they just fired their manager, Bryan Price, after four very non-descript seasons. The team's .419 win percentage under Price was the worst in the league during that timeframe and a 3-15 start to this season was looking rather ominous. However, as we see in all sport, a coaching/managerial change often provides a short-term boost to a team. I also like when the Reds chose to make the move, on an off-day. St. Louis, meanwhile, had to finish a series yday w/ the Cubs (lost 8-5) and that's a second reason why the Reds are appealing in this spot. The third and final reason is that Cincy has revenge for a four-game sweep (suffered at home) just last week. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here tonight. The numbers are pretty ugly for the Reds so far this season. They've been outscored by a MLB-worst 50 run margin so far and are the first team to start a campaign 3-15 since the 2015 Brewers. The good news for the Reds is that Brewers team did NOT finish in last place in the NL Central that season. That's because the Reds did! But as bad as things have been here, they can only get better now that Price is gone. The team is off B2B shutout losses to Milwaukee, for instance. They've been held to three runs or fewer five times in the last six games. But they did score 10 times in a rare win Monday. Tonight's starter Brandon Finnegan gets a second crack at St. Louis tonight and I find it difficult to believe he won't improve upon last Saturday's performance where he allowed five runs on six hits, lasting only 4 1/3 innings. St. Louis had a five-game win streak snapped yday and really they were lucky to score five runs as they had only five hits and struck out 11 times. Three Cubs' errors kept the door open in a game the Cards initially fell behind 6-0 after just two frames. Getting back to the revenge angle here, it's difficult to consistently beat the same opponent, day after day, especially if it's a division rival. Starting here for the Redbirds will be Michael Wacha. He was hardly dominant in last week's series vs. the Reds as he lasted only five innings and gave up four runs. In fact, Wacha has yet to make it past the fifth inning in any of his three starts this season. A failure to do so yet again puts a real "onus" on already taxed Cardinals' pen. At the very worst, I can see Cincy putting some runs on the board late to make this a one-run game (similar to what they did in LW's series finale), but I also give them an excellent shot at winning this game as well! 10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) |
|||||||
04-20-18 | Raptors +2 v. Wizards | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): This is one of two games on Friday's NBA card where oddsmakers are clearly anticipating "zig zag" bettors stepping in and taking the home team, down 0-2 in its respective series. But while the "zig zag theory" (simply taking the ATS loser of the previous game) has enjoyed a relative degree of success in the past in NBA playoff betting, its effectiveness seems to have waned in more recent times. For instance, those hoping for a Washington bounce back in Game 2 (they lost Gm 1, 114-106 as 7.5-pt dogs) were rudely greeted w/ an early Raptors' firestorm and the result ended up being an even more lopsided Game 2 (130-119). Compared to the lines from the first two games of the series, it sure looks like the oddsmakers have overcompensated here. Take the points. Now I don't expect Toronto to shoot as well here as they did at home in Game 2. They scored 44 pts in the 1st quarter, had 76 by halftime and never looked back in finishing w/ 130. After making a franchise record 16 three-pointers in Game 1, the Raptors made 13 more in Game 2, though they did slow down in the 2nd half, making only two. The key was the first quarter when every starter made at least one attempt from long distance and the team was 7 of 13 overall. DeMar DeRozan matched a career playoff-high w/ 37 points. This is actually the first time in franchise history that the Raptors have led a series 2-0 and I don't think for a second they are about to let up. Note their scoring average hardly dips on the road (they still average 111.1 PPG) and they're a perfect 4-0 ATS this season after scoring 130+ pts the previous game. Washington was not a good ATS team at home during the regular season, going just 15-24-2. They were 10-22-1 ATS when favored here in D.C., so I really don't understand this line at all. Toronto is significantly better and should still be favored on the road in this series. Yes, the Wiz are essentially "playing for their season" tonight, but this is a team that's won only one game in April and it came against an injury-riddled Boston team. Washington has won only three of its last 14 games as well. So this really isn't a very good team and I think this Raptors' team - which had the best year in franchise history - is being severely underrated right now. Toronto has shot better than 50% in both games, outrebounded Washington badly in Game 2 and led by as many as 23. 8* Toronto |
|||||||
04-20-18 | Wild +1.5 v. Jets | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Minnesota (7:40 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Wild +1.5. This is a pretty cheap price on a team as good as Minnesota, getting an additional 1.5 goals to work with. Yes, the overall outlook is looking rather bleak after a Game 4 loss (2-0) that puts them down 3-1 in the series and having to make a return trip to Winnipeg where the host Jets are an outstanding 34-7-2 SU for the year. But, as much as I leaned on the simple concept of home ice advantage for previous plays in this series, the anticipation of the Jets closing things out has led to a ridiculously inflated price for Game 5 and the PL now becomes a viable option. Maybe this is Minnesota's final game, but I see them doing no worse than a one-goal loss in this spot. The last time a team wearing Winnipeg Jets' sweaters had a 3-1 series lead was 1992 (!) against the Vancouver Canucks. They failed to close out that series and have never advanced since. (To be fair, the franchise went away for some time, before resurfacing as the Atlanta Thrashers). So tonight is going to be a REALLY big deal in Manitoba. But, the pressure is on and the Jets will have to win w/o three of their top four blueliners. Already w/o Toby Enstrom and Dmitri Kulikov (both injured), the team will now have to deal with the suspension Josh Morrisey (for a cross-check in Game 3). Furthemore, a fourth defensemen (Tyler Myers) is also listed as questionable for this game. That's a lot of key personnel missing for a game aainst what will be a very desperate Wild team. Minnesota has typically bounced back this year after a poor offensive effort as their record is 12-5 SU after being held to one goal or fewer in their previous game. Case in point, they scored six times in Game 3 (following a 4-1 loss in Game 2), chasing the previously red-hot Connor Hellebuyck. Despite being badly outshot in those first two games, the Wild remained competitive, which is a mark in their favor. Devan Dubnyk has actually outplayed Hellebuyck in this series (.930 save percentage to .899) and I just can't see Minnesota going down w/o a fight in this one. 8* Puck Line Minnesota (+1.5) |
|||||||
04-18-18 | Jazz +4 v. Thunder | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City took Game 1, 116-108 as 4.5-pt dogs. They were led by Paul George, who scored 36 pts including a Thunder franchise record eight three-pointers made (on 11 attempts!). He was 13 of 20 overall from the floor. Russell Westbrook added 29-13-8 while Carmelo Anthony had 15 pts. It hasn't always been that "easy" for OKC's "Big 3" and truthfully Game 1 wasn't all that easy, even though they led comfortably for the entirety of the second half. The Jazz did initially get out to an 11-2 lead and given their defensive exploits, I was a little surprised they surrendered it so quickly. I expect a Utah bounce back in Game 2 and will take the points as I won't be the least bit surprised if they snap a long losing streak here in OKC. The big storyline for Wednesday will be the health of two key players, one on each side. For Utah, Donovan Mitchell is listed as questionable. He suffered a left foot bruise in Game 1, but did go through practice on Tuesday. More concerning though is the questionable status of George for OKC. He bruised his right hip and was less participatory in the Thunder's team practice on Tuesday. Obviously, the loss of George would be the bigger deal of the two. Sources have indicated that Mitchell will play for Utah. Regardless, I expect the other Jazz players to improve upon their collective Game 1 performances. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how OKC would replace George's lost production. Right now, I'm operating as if he will play, but even so a duplication of Gm 1 seems highly unlikely. Utah was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They were the only team besides San Antonio to allow fewer than 100 points per game. Let us not forget just how hot the Jazz were in the second half of the season. Going all the way back to January 24th, this is a team that won 20 of its final 26 regular season games and never during that stretch did they drop B2B contests. Including the regular season finale, now they have, putting them into a rare situation where we can also grab some points. It has been over three months since Utah last lost three straight times. Really, outside of a poor December (that bled into the start of January), this was a remarkably good team. At one point, they lost 13 of 16 games. Other than that streak, they have won 45 of 66 this season! Oklahoma City was NOT a good bet during the regular season, going 24-41 ATS as a favorite. They were also only 2-14 ATS vs. division opponents. 10* Utah |
|||||||
04-18-18 | Pacers +8 v. Cavs | Top | 97-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): Followers of the famed "zig-zag" theory (bet ATS loser of previous game) will surely be on the Cavaliers here after the favorite was thoroughly embarrassed in Game 1 at home, losing 98-80 as seven-point chalk. As someone who was personally on the Pacers, even I have to admit that I was stunned at the ease w/ which they rolled to victory. The 80 pts allowed marked a season-low for Indiana and keep in mind it came against a team that has LeBron James, averages 110.5 PPG and ranked fifth in the regular season in offensive efficiency. But in all due respect to those "zig zag" players, I've got a bit of a different read on this series. I came into the postseason feeling the Cavs would be overrated. After all, they were a league-worst 32-49-1 ATS in the regular season. Maybe Cleveland bounces back and wins Game 2, but they won't cover. Take the points. It wasn't just that the Cavs were the worst team in the league at the pay window in the regular season. It's that they set fire to their backers' bankroll when favored, going 19-43-1 ATS. As discussed extensively in my Gm 1 analysis, this team has major issues defensively where they ranked 28th in efficiency, ahead of only lowly Sacramento and Phoenix. Among playoff teams, only New Orleans gives up more points per game. Shockingly though, defense was not the issue in Game 1, offense was. James posted another triple double, but the other four starters combined for just 25 pts. The team shot only 38.5% overall from the field, including 8 of 34 from three-point range and missed 8 of their 20 free throw attempts. Sure, I expect the offensive numbers to improve in Game 2, but if I'm a Cavs fan, there should be a fear about the old defensive issues costing them. Certainly, the inefficiencies on defense can be directly tied to the terrible ATS record from the regular season. Indiana has now beaten Cleveland four times in five matchups this year. They incredibly jumped out to a 21-pt lead in the first quarter Sunday and led by as many as 23. Cleveland did cut it to seven in the 2H, but got no closer than that. Victor Oladipo, the Pacers' best player, led the way w/ 32 points. Something else I mentioned in my Game 1 analysis is that even though Indiana is just 5-11 SU vs. Cleveland the L3 seasons, they are 11-4-1 ATS. True to form, here in Cleveland, they are now 2-7 SU in Cleveland and 7-2 ATS. Indiana's only loss to Cleveland this year came on a day when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor and still the final margin was only seven. Over the L3 seasons, Cleveland is 13-35 ATS when off a double digit loss (5-15 ATS this year) and 2-11 ATS after scoring 85 pts or less the previous game. 8* Indiana |
|||||||
04-17-18 | Bucks +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 106-120 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 24 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): We caught a really bad break w/ the Bucks in Game 1 as overtime once again proved to be "an underdog bettor's worst friend." In retrospect, I gladly would have taken the SU loss w/ the Bucks in regulation. Taking four points from the oddsmakers, they were down three when Khris Middleton hit a near halfcourt heave w/ no time remaining to force OT. While that miracle shot gave the Bucks "second life," it proved to be our undoing as they wound up losing by six points. Worst of all is that, down four and w/ little chance to win, they fouled w/ just a few seconds remaining. They now get a chance at revenge in Game 2 and my read on this series remains unchanged as Boston is no more healthy than they were going into Game 1. Take the points. Middleton and Giannis Antetokounmpo combined for 66 pts in Game 1 while Malcolm Brogden scored all of his 16 pts after halftime. Still, it was not enough. But Antetokounmpo has certainly had Boston's number this season as he's averaged over 33 pts, 11 rebounds and 5 assists per game. He's also shooting over 50 percent from the field. Unfortunately for the Bucks, he fouled out in overtime. One has to wonder if the Bucks could have pulled off the upset had he not. What we do know is the Bucks beat the Celtics twice in the regular season. One of those was in a great spot (2nd game of the year after Boston had just lost Gordon Hayward), but the other was late in the year when Boston was w/o Kyrie Irving. They've done it before and can do it again. Not only are the Celtics w/o Irving and Hayward, they don't have Marcus Smart or Daniel Theis either. This is what I said in my Game 1 analysis: "It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring." Nothing I wrote there has changed in 48 hours. Boston may have been #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season, but the Bucks shot better in Game 1 and I don't expect Terry Rozier to go off again in Game 2. 8* Milwaukee. |
|||||||
04-16-18 | Nationals +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Nationals at +1.5. This is an early season revenge spot for the Nats, who were swept at home by the Mets earlier this month. That has set the tone for the National League East in the early going w/ NY racing out to a red-hot 12-2 start (NL's best record) including a perfect 6-0 on the road. Meanwhile, the Nats (division favorite coming into the season) are languishing behind at 7-9, having just dropped three of four at home to the Rockies (were big ML favorites in every game). Tonight marks the 1st time all season that Washington is an underdog on the ML, which opens up an opportunity w/ the run line and I don't see them doing any worse than a one-run loss in this game. 1st year Mets' skipper Mickey Callaway stepped into a great situation w/ this Mets team. The former Indians' pitching coach inherited a great staff that was not healthy virtually all of 2017. The rotation is at full strength right now though and the results speak for themselves. Leading the way has been ace Jacob deGrom, who has a 3-0 team start record to go along w/ a 3.06 ERA and 1.132 WHIP. Now, those numbers aren't exactly out of this world. In fact, he gave up four runs in his last start, which came against lowly Miami. He's also yet to make it past the six inning mark. deGrom is 6-4 in 13 career starts vs. Washington, last facing them in September. He did post an 11-0 KW ratio, but still lost the game. Something worth noting here, based on how we're playing this one, is that both Mets victories in the last series came by exactly one run. Meanwhile, Washington has blown a lead in five of its nine losses this season. They are just 1-4 in one-run games and their last two losses have come by that exact margin. Yesterday, they lost on a two-out HR hit by Colorado's Ian Desmond (former teammate!) in the top of the ninth. That happened at approximately the same time the Mets were winning in their final at-bat (on a walkoff HR). So there's been a lot of good fortune going the Mets' way and bad fortune going the Nats' way in these disparate starts to the season. Making his season debut tonight for Washington will be Jeremy Hellickson. He hasn't pitched in an official game since his final start w/ Baltimore last season. As much of an "uphill climb" as it seems to be taking on deGrom, I can't help but love this price on an underachieving Nationals team that's due to start playing better. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5) |
|||||||
04-15-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 98-80 | Win | 100 | 43 h 11 m | Show |
10* Indiana (3:35 ET): The East is wide open and because they have LeBron James, Cleveland comes in as the betting favorite to win its fourth consecutive conference crown. I suppose its not difficult to understand why. Toronto (#1 seed) has an ugly postseason history. Boston (#2 seed) has a ton of injuries, including one to their best player, Kyrie Irving. Philadelphia (#3 seed) is both young and unproven. Yet, the Cavs are no "slam dunk" this postseason in my view. They're the fourth seed for many reasons, not the least of which is they were terrible defensively in the regular season, ranking 28th in efficiency (ahead of only Sacramento and Phoenix). They were also a disaster at the betting window, going a league worst 32-49-1 ATS, including 19-43 when favored! They did sweep these Pacers in the 1st round of LY's playoffs, but three of those games were decided by six pts or less and Indiana is improved now. This will be a hard fought Game 1 and likely series. The Pacers surprised everyone in going 48-34 SU in the regular season. Most did not think they were going to be a playoff team when they dealt Paul George away in the offseason, but led by Victor Oladipo, here they are. They actually finished w/ a better point differential than Cleveland in the regular season, so judging by that metric, this spread is way too high. Indiana also finished tied for 12th in defensive efficiency. They did fail to cover the regular season finale (meant nothing), but note they've only failed to cover in B2B games one time since the beginning of March. Including last year's playoff series, Cleveland is 11-5 SU vs. Indiana the L3 seasons, but just 4-11-1 ATS. So while they usually beat the Pacers, the games are often close. True to that form, here in Cleveland, Indiana is 1-7 SU, but 6-2 ATS. Indiana won three of the four regular season matchups this year, only losing the final one when the Cavs shot a ridiculous 56.1% from the floor (and still only won by seven). I really can't stress just how bad the Cavs are on the defensive end and it's going to prevent them from winning here in the playoffs by any kind of significant margin. Also, Indiana was 4-0 SU/ATS when playing w/ three or more days rest in the regular season and actually finished w/ a winning road record. 10* Indiana |
|||||||
04-15-18 | Bucks +4 v. Celtics | Top | 107-113 | Loss | -101 | 41 h 41 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (1:05 ET): This is not your "normal" matchup of a #2 and #7 seed in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Obviously, something must be "afoul" for me to endorse a Bucks team that was actually outscored during the regular season. If the last game of the regular season was any indication, then they clearly don't fear the Celtics as they put forth a rather shameful effort in losing 130-95 at Philadelphia. They entered that game w/ a chance to move up to sixth and possibly play either the Sixers or Cavs w/ a win. Perhaps Boston is the better matchup though. After all, the Celtics are going to be without Kyrie Irving for the entirety of the playoffs, no longer how long they last. I believe Boston is ripe for a Round 1/Game 1 upset. Take the points. These teams split four regular season matchups. In those four games, Bucks' superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo averaged 33.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 5.1 assists and shot 53.9% from the field. He also averaged 10.5 free throw attempts per game. I look him to be the difference maker in the series. Clearly, if Milwaukee is to advance, it will be him carrying the team. Perhaps most telling of those four regular season matchups was the last one when Milwaukee won 106-102 on April 3rd. Antetokounmpo scored 29pts against an Irving-less Celtics team, but most encouraging of all is that the team was able to go on 11-3 and 16-4 runs while he was on the bench. Milwaukee was generally overpriced on a game by game basis in the regular season, but I like them more as dogs. Not only is Boston w/o Kyrie, they also don't have Gordon Hayward, Marcus Smart and Daniel Theis. It's going to take one heck of a Brad Stevens coaching job to get this team out of the 1st round, let alone further. The Celtics lost four of their last six regular season contests w/ one of the wins coming in a meaningless regular season finale against the sorry Nets. The other win was against Chicago. This team only outscored its opponents by 3.6 PPG to begin with and that includes Irving playing the majority of those games. I'm just not sure who they lean on for crunch-time scoring. Sure, the C's were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency, but the Bucks shot 54.4% from the field in the last meeting. In the second half of the season, Boston went just 8-13 SU against teams that had a winning record. 8* Milwaukee |