Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-04-17 | Fairfield v. Siena -3.5 | Top | 66-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Siena (9:30 ET): At least for this quarterfinal matchup, I don't believe Siena is being given the proper respect as the MAAC Tournament host. The Saints finished tied for 3rd in the conference after winning their final regular season contest, but will be the #4 seed in the tourney. That's just fine though. It means they draw a Fairfield team that they swept in the regular season. But that's not the only reason that isn't a favorable draw for the visiting Stags. This will be their third consecutive road game and it's looking as if one of their starters may not play tonight. Being the tournament host could mean big things this weekend for Siena, such as the possibility of hosting top seeded Monmouth tomorrow. But before that, they must T.C.B. (Take Care of Business) here. I think they will. Lay the points. Despite the relatively strong finish, Siena's regular season could fairly be dubbed "underwhelming." Coming into the year, they thought they'd be able to challenge Monmouth for the top spot. But they finished well off the pace (six games back) instead. Some of that is due to Nico Clareth missing significant time. Second on the team in PPG (13.6 in just 25 min per game), Clareth returned for good in early February and the Saints are 5-2 SU ever since. Both losses came against Monmouth. Clareth scored 22 pts (off the bench) in Sunday's 80-64 win over Marist. Siena led by as many as 22 thanks to some strong shooting, particularly from three-pt range. The win also improved their home record to 10-4 SU this year. In those seven games w/ Clareth back, Siena has topped 80 points five times. They are also shooting better than 50% the L5 games. Fairfield ended its regular season w/ consecutive wins, on the road. But both came by four points or less and were low scoring games. In a sharp contrast to the way Siena ended its regular season, Fairfield has scored 62 pts or less in each of the L4 games. Now, as referenced above, they could be w/o a starter. Amadou Sidibe, the team's only seniora that sees significant minutes and one of their best players, is battling an ankle injury. In addition to being the Stags' fourth leading scorer, Sidibe is also #2 in the MAAC in rebounding. Even if he does play, this won't be the best matchup for him as Siena has the conference's top rebounder (Brett Bisping) on its roster. Sidibe also has a propensity to get into foul trouble. Bisping helped Siena outrebound Fairfield in both meetings during the regular season. Those two games saw Fairfield get to the FT line a total of only 17 times! That's been a problem for them much of the season. I look for Siena to roll here on its home floor. 10* Siena |
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03-04-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): The Hornets seemed to be building some momentum prior to a very disappointing 120-103 loss at Phoenix Thursday night. That result leaves them three back of the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and nine games below .500 overall. But the record would appear to be misleading when you consider they have actually outscored opponents this year and have the East's sixth best net efficiency rating. Only four teams in the Conference (the top four!) have outscored opponents over the course of this season. Tonight, Charlotte finally wraps up this long road trip (7th straight) that began before the All-Star Break. They're at a Denver team that's an enviable 8th in the Western Conference, but coming off a pair of upsets on the road, the Nuggets are being overvalued in this spot. Take the points. As I said earlier, Charlotte seemed to finally be trending in the right direction before the bad showing in Phoenix. They'd covered three straight, going 2-1 SU (one loss in OT at Clippers) and keep in mind that came after starting the trip by blowing double digit fourth quarter leads at Toronto and Detroit. They have covered just four of their previous 18 games and are an unfathomably bad 1-17 SU as an underdog this year. But I maintain that they are better than their record. Part of the issue has been Cody Zeller missing so many games. The team has nearly as many SU defeats in the 20 games he's missed (3-17 SU) as they do in the 41 games in which he has played (23-18). While Frank Kaminsky won't play tonight, Zeller will and he's proven to be the more important of the two players. While we've seen some hot shooting of late from Denver, I seriously doubt that they will be able to match Phoenix's somewhat preposterous 59.7% clip from the other night. The Nuggets did just score 125 and 110 in wins at Chicago and Milwaukee respectively, but laying points remains a concern w/ a team that is 30th in the league (that's last!) in defensive efficiency. (Charlotte is 8th in def efficiency). Starting power forward Kenneth Faried will again be out of Denver's lineup, which is a big deal as he's the key cog in the team's league best rebounding rate. 10* Charlotte |
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03-04-17 | Montana State v. Weber State -7.5 | Top | 67-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Weber State (9:00 ET): What has happened to the once mighty Big Sky power known as Weber State? The Wildcats are really limping to the finish here w/ four straight losses. The most recent came here at home to long-time rival Montana on Thursday. But even worse has been the Wildcats' returns at the betting window. They've failed to cover nine games in a row and are just 1-12 ATS their L13 games overall. That one cover came against one of the real dregs of the league, Idaho State, as well. But let us not forget that this is the same team that opened Big Sky play at 11-2 SU. The conference opener was an 87-75 win at Montana State and that's the team they close the reg season out against. The result will be similar. Lay the points. This being Senior Night should add to the loads of motivation Weber State already has. They are tied w/ Montana State for third place in the conference (Idaho also 11-6 SU), so a lot is on the line here. Weber State still has to be cursing itself for the way it let one slip away against Montana two nights ago. More than halfway through the second half, they were shooting 55% percent from the floor and led by double digits. Most of the time, that turns out to be a win. But it wasn't as the Wildcats went cold late and lost for the 1st time at home to Montana in 13 seasons. They are still 9-3 SU at home this year and averaging 85.6 points per contest. I just find this entire swoon to be pretty shocking and figure "tonight is the night" for it to end. Montana State was a 4.5-pt dog at home when they lost to Weber State, 87-75, back in December. So by that line comparison, it certainly appears as if they aren't getting enough "help" from the oddsmakers for the rematch. The Bobcats have won five in a row, but are also playing their second road game in three days. Aside from beating rival Montana in the home finale last Saturday, they've mainly been beating the bottom teams in the league and not by large margins either. Again, I simply believe the favorite is being way undervalued here given their pedigree and circumstance. 10* Weber State |
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03-04-17 | Raptors v. Bucks +2 | Top | 94-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Both of these teams have reason to be concerned, but their respective playoff hopes each received a huge boost w/ last night's results. Both won SU as underdogs. Toronto went to Washington (not an easy place to win) and prevailed 114-106, avenging a home loss to the Wizards that took place Wednesday. Since learning they'd be w/o starting PG Kyle Lowry for the rest of the regular season, the Raptors are a surprising 3-1 SU/ATS. But how long can they keep that up? Milwaukee, on the other hand, is a team that needs to pick up the pace. They are six games below .500 and 1.5 games back of 8th place in the Eastern Conference. But they picked up a big win here at home last night, beating the Clippers (who had Chris Paul in the lineup) 112-101 as 5-point dogs. After a tough stretch, it does look like the Bucks are finally "getting it together" (won 5 of 8). I'll call for them to make it two straight at home tonight. Beating the Clippers last night was a nice way to atone for Wednesday's somewhat shameful showing here against Denver. That game saw the Bucks trail virtually the entire way (32-15 after 1Q). Last night was a much different story as they basically led wire to wire (led 34-19 after 1Q). They led by as many as 23 against a good Clippers team that is at full strength, forcing them into a season-high 23 turnovers. Again, it bears repeating that Toronto is NOT at full strength currently. Lowry should prove to be a HUGE loss for them. Though 5-1 SU this year when Lowry does NOT play, Toronto has actually been outscored by 4.3 pts per 100 possessions in those games. Another positive takeaway from last night for Milwaukee is that they were able to win despite the Clippers shooting 56% from the field! That's hard to do. Suffice to say, I don't see the Raptors coming anywhere near that percentage, though they did shoot slightly better than 50% last night in D.C. But their SU record in the 2nd game of a back to back is a losing one. Toronto has had Milwaukee's number in the past two seasons, going 7-0 SU against them, including 3-0 this year. But that was w/ Lowry averaging 23.0 PPG. Yes, the Bucks are w/o Jabari Parker, but that's been mitigated by the return of Khris Middleton to the starting lineup. Milwaukee has played better than its record as they've outscored opponents on a per possession basis over the course of the season. 8* Milwaukee |
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03-03-17 | Celtics v. Lakers +8 | Top | 115-95 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35): This long-time rivalry no longer means much, especially w/ Los Angeles being so downtrodden. Ever since starting the season with a respectable 10-10 SU record, the Lakers have dropped 32 of 41 games, including five in a row. They are the worst defensive team in the league. Yet, I have reason to believe they'll be quite competitive tonight as they host the Celtics. First off, this is a spot where Boston will be ripe for a letdown after beating Cleveland in a "playoff-like" game (on national TV), at home Wednesday. I was on them there remember. But it's been awhile since the Celtics beat anyone by any kind of significant margin. So I'll take the points. Boston was an 11-pt favorite at home when they beat the Lakers 111-103 last month. Thus, they certainly appear to be overvalued in this rematch. Certainly, the Lakers' recent slide must be accounted for, but it seems as if the oddsmakers have adjusted too much, expecting a likely influx of public money on the Celtics here. The Lakers are likely to treat this game more seriously as they look to snap their losing streak. For Boston, this game carries nowhere near the importance of Wednesday's contest vs. Cleveland, a back and forth affair that saw 22 lead changes and wasn't decided until the final minute. Though the Under has cashed in each of their last five games, Boston is by no means a good defensive team as they allow over 105 PPG. That makes it difficult to cover when in this price range on the road. Boston has a really good record as road chalk, but it's rare to see them laying this many. In fact, the last time they did, they lost outright in Sacramento. The Lakers led Charlotte going into the fourth quarter Tuesday. That was after playing tough games against OKC and San Antonio to start the second half. Going into the Break, the Lakers were a respectable 12-14 SU at home and basically dead even in terms of points scored vs. allowed for the season. 8* LA Lakers |
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03-03-17 | Heat v. Magic +3.5 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Back on Feb 13, the Magic beat the Heat 116-107 as eight-point underdogs. At the time, Miami was coming off its first loss in nearly a month (to Philadelphia). I still view that 13-game win streak as one of the strangest things of this NBA season so far. Coming out of the All-Star Break, I expected the Heat to regress some, but that really hasn't happened yet as they are now 4-1 SU/ATS since the Orlando loss. I'm proud to say I was on the Magic that last meeting and despite the Heat being out for revenge, I'll back them again tonight. I'm still of the belief that Miami is due to regress and they certainly look overvalued tonight. Miami did drub Philadelphia two nights ago, winning 125-98 at home. They shot 54.4% from the field and essentially led wire to wire. But it was a much different offensive showing in the previous game, which was a 96-89 loss at Dallas. I realize the Heat are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season after scoring 115+ pts the previous game, most of those games coming recently, but they could very well be w/o Dion Waiters tonight. Waiters has been a key contributer in the team's overall resurgence. Hassan Whiteside is also battling an eye issue. The Heat are just 13-19 SU on the road, so it's pretty rare to see them laying points. Sure enough, last time they were road chalk was the loss to Philadelphia that snapped the 13-game win streak. Tonight is just the FIFTH time all season that they've been road faves. Orlando, meanwhile, is off a disappointing home loss to the Knicks on Wednesday. However, there were some positive takeaways, namely them allowing just 41 pts in the second half. Overall, they're giving up exactly 1.0 point per possession since the All-Star Break. No team is allowing that little on a per possession basis over the course of the year. What made the loss to the Knicks so disappointing is that the Magic were coming off a long layoff. This is still just their second game since Saturday when they routed Atlanta 105-86 on this floor. That and the Miami game are their only SU wins over the past nine games, but as bleak as the future may look here, Orlando is the play plus the points tonight. 10* Orlando |
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03-03-17 | Central Michigan +10 v. Western Michigan | Top | 80-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): Back on February 3rd, Central Michigan beat Western Michigan 86-82 as 3.5-pt chalk. Since that time, these two MAC West rivals have gone in very opposite directions. Central Michigan would win their next game, an 97-87 upset of Ohio, but has now dropped a stunning six in a row despite the presence of Marcus Keene, who is the nation's leading scorer at 29.4 PPG. The Chippewas are also 0-6 ATS in those six SU losses. Meanwhile, Western Michigan has not tasted defeated since losing in Mt. Pleasant, going a perfect 7-0 SU and ATS its last seven games. In my opinion, these disparate streaks have created a situation where the favorite has become greatly overvalued. I'll take the points. Keene has certainly not shot the ball well recently, which is a big reason for CMU's slide. He is a pretty miserable 46 of 127 from the floor those L6 games. With three straight 20+ losses, many are going to simply write off the team in this reg season finale. But I think that's a mistake given what Keene and CMU are capable of offensively. They were absolutely embarrassed by Eastern Michigan in the final home game Tuesday and should would atone for that miserable defensive performance (gave up 109 points). Note that this could possibly be the first time ALL SEASON that the Chippewas close as double digit underdogs! This is a team averaging 88 PPG getting plenty of points. It would take quite the prolific shooting night for Western Mich to cover this spread. Note the Broncos shot 51% from the floor in Mt. Pleasant last month and still lost. Western Michigan certainly can score too, especially here in Kalamazoo. But lately it been the Broncos defense that has carried them. They've held three straight opponents to 56 pts or fewer, a streak I can assure you will NOT continue here. Now the Broncos are playing for at least a share of the MAC West title. They can win the division outright if they win here and Ball State loses (at home) to Northern Illinois. So the pressure is on and I feel it will be difficult to win by any kind of margin. Note Central Michigan still has the better overall SU record this season. Similar to Central Michigan not having been a dog of this size all year, this stands to be the most points Western Michigan has had to lay to any opponent all season. The Broncos have only been favored in FIVE of 17 MAC games overall. 10* Central Michigan |
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03-03-17 | The Citadel -1 v. Western Carolina | Top | 78-72 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
8* The Citadel (5:00 ET): If you're not familiar w/ The Citadel's brand of basketball, there's one thing you should not expect much of and that's defense. Consider that despite averaging over 90 PPG (2nd most in the country), the Bulldogs are 11-20 SU. This is due to being the worst defensive team in the country, allowing more than 95 PPG! Fortunately, for their opening round matchup in the SoConTournament, they draw Western Carolina. Both teams went just 4-14 SU in conference play, but interestingly two of Western Carolina's wins came at The Citadel's expense. That seems odd, though both victories were by a margin of five or less. I can't see the Catamounts pulling off the season sweep, so I'll call for The Citadel to score enough to take this rubber match. The Citadel is not shy about putting up three-point shots. In the two meetings w/ Western Carolina, they've attempted 76 (!), exactly 38 in each game. They've made only 26, not a great percentage. It really hurt them going just 11 of 38 in the last meeting as they lost by four at home (were six-point favorites). Something else that certainly did not help was falling behind by 18 at the half. But still, the Bulldogs wound up having a chance to tie in the final minute! The first game was a 100-95 final. Again, it was a one possession game in the closing seconds and The Citadel had a chance to tie. Though the Bulldogs defense is beyond "suspect," I just can't see Western Carolina making over 50% of its three-point attempts again as they've done in the previous two meetings. Now onto some positives for The Citadel. They did win their final two regular season games, both as pretty big underdogs. Saturday they went to Samford (were +13.5) and won 102-96 thanks to a 60-point second half. That snapped an 11-game overall losing streak! Then, in Monday's reg season finale, they upset Chattanooga (were +8), 85-76. That's certainly an encouraging performance, especially on the defensive end. As for Western Carolina, they too won on Senior Night Monday, beating VMI (last place team in the SoCon), 81-68 as two-point chalk. What's so shocking about the regular season results between these two is that both games were played at The Citadel's pace and they still lost. Western Carolina only averages 55.1 PPG away from home and is the third lowest scoring team in the country overall! 8* The Citadel |
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03-03-17 | Loyola-Chicago -3 v. Southern Illinois | Top | 50-55 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 47 m | Show |
8* Loyola Chicago (3:30 ET): An interesting situation presents itself in the first of four Missouri Valley quarterfinal matchups today. Southern Illinois will be looking to upset favored Loyola for a third time this year. Back on February 4th, they beat the Ramblers on the road, 67-61 as six-point dogs. Then, last Saturday in Carbondale (reg season finale for both), they did it again (this time as only a 1-pt home dog), 72-70. Yet despite those results and SIU being the higher overall seed (4 vs. 5), Loyola is again the slight favorite here. So the oddsmakers are clearly maintaining the Ramblers are the better team here and so will I. With the double revenge angle in play and this being the second meeting in less than a week, I'll call for the third time to be the charm for Loyola IL. Lay the short number. Last Saturday's win is what secured the 4-seed for Southern Illinois. Both teams came into the reg season finale at 8-9 SU in MVC play. The game was not decided until Salukis' guard Armon Fletcher made a three-point basket w/ 17 seconds remaining. Both teams shot the ball well; it just so happened that SIU made the key shot. Neither team led by more than four points at any time in the contest. The Salukis also shot well in their upset of the Ramblers three weeks earlier. Loyola did not shoot well in that first meeting, particularly from three-point range. However, I am not expecting SIU to shoot the ball that well here this afternoon. That's because when they leave Carbondale, they are averaging only 62.5 PPG for the year. Loyola IL is just 2-6 SU vs. their in-state rival since joining the Missouri Valley. So there's additional motivation present here beyond this just being a conference tournament game. The Ramblers did not end the regular season well, dropping six of their final eight contests, but you should note that FOUR of those losses were by TWO points or less! While obviously not a "true" road game here, I again have to go back to my belief that Southern Illinois won't score much here. In three of their last five games away from home, they've failed to score even 50 points! I just can't see the inferior side winning for a third time this year. The underdog has actually won (straight up!) each of the L4 times these teams have met. Time for that to change. 8* Loyola Chicago |
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03-02-17 | Hornets -3.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-120 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): At the All-Star Break, the Hornets were a team I said was worth investing in. Sure enough, they've covered three straight games. The latest was a somewhat narrow 109-104 victory over the Lakers. They actually trailed going into the fourth quarter, but rallied to win behind Kemba Walker's 30 points. That result could certainly be dubbed a "reversal of fortune" for Charlotte, who had typically been on the WRONG end of some fourth quarter comebacks recently. Most notably, they blew double digit 4Q leads at both Toronto and Detroit, games that bookended the All-Star Break. Since that time, they've won at Sacramento, taken the Clippers to overtime (lost by three) and then beat the Lakers Tuesday. There's still much work to be done for the team w/ the fifth best point differential and net efficiency rating in the East, however. I expect them to beat up on the lowly Suns here. Yes, though eight games below .500 and in 11th place, the Hornets have outscored their opponents by more on a per game and per possession basis than all by four other teams in the Conference. That would be the "big four" of Cleveland, Boston, Washington and Toronto. One could argue that they "should" be 5-0 on the current road trip, which ends Saturday in Denver. But they've twice lost in overtime and are actually a league-worst 0-5 SU in OT games this season. That's after going a league-best 5-0 SU last season. (Funny how that works out!). But all the tell-tale signs are there that a turnaround is coming. Cody Zeller returned against the Lakers following a six-game absence. The team went 1-5 SU in those six games and is 3-17 SU w/ Zeller out of the lineup this year. That means they are 23-17 SU when he does play. Walker had the big game Tuesday, but also keep an eye on Frank Kaminsky, who is averaging 19.9 points and 7.8 rebounds the L10 games. Meanwhile, Phoenix offers little reason for hope down the stretch. Clearly one of the five worst teams in basketball, they've dropped all three games since the Break and are just 2-8 SU their L10 overall. Defense, or rather lack of it, continues to be the primary concern. They allowed 130 points in an embarrassing effort Tuesday in Memphis. That marked the second time in three games they allowed 128 or more. Granted, all three games since the Break were on the road. But even at home, the team is giving up 111.7 PPG and is just 9-17 SU. This is a pretty short number to lay against a bad team. With the team well out of contention, HC Earl Watson is turning to his younger players. While I can't say I blame him, that likely means the losses are likely to continue to pile up. 10* Charlotte |
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03-02-17 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -11 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (9:00 ET): In the buildup for this Thursday night Big 10 showdown, you're likely to hear plenty about Wisconsin "trending downward." Well, I'm not buying it. Sure, it's true that the Badgers have lost back to back games and four of their last five. But that one win happened to be my *10* Game of the Month, a 71-60 victory at Maryland's expense. That was two Sundays ago and since then, they've lost at both Ohio State and Michigan State. But are two conference road losses worth getting that upset about? I think not. Here at the Kohl Center, the team has lost only one time all year. That was to Northwestern on Feb 12. But still, they are +21.0 points per game compared to their visitors here in Madison. Iowa is likely feeling a bit "too good about itself" coming off their own win over Maryland last weekend. Lay the points. It is concerning that all four of Wisconsin's recent losses have come to unranked foes. But previously, they'd gone a perfect 19-0 SU vs. teams outside the top 25, winning by an average margin of 18.7 PPG. So what ails them now? Well, it's more about recent opponents getting hot from three-point range. Ohio State made 10 of 16 from behind the arc last Thursday, it's best percentage in over a decade. Michigan State wasn't nearly as hot Sunday, but Wisconsin certainly was cold. The Badgers have now been held below 44% shooting in nine consecutive contests, which must improve. But given the Iowa defense and the fact Wisky is still above 47% from the field at home, I expect that improvement to begin tonight! Iowa is a really tough team to get a beat on. Saturday's win at Maryland was just their second "true" road win of the year. The other one came at Rutgers. Defensively, the Hawkeyes are not good. They're allowing over 80 PPG outside of Iowa City. They got a career best performance out of freshman Jordan Bohannan Saturday (24 points), which is unlikely to be repeated, as is the team's overall 8 for 12 three-point shooting from that last game. The Hawkeyes are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Badgers the previous two seasons, including an outright loss LY (as six-point favorites) at home. I cannot see them being competitive, let alone winning, in B2B road games against ranked foes. 8* Wisconsin |
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03-02-17 | Eastern Washington v. Southern Utah +9.5 | Top | 91-75 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Southern Utah (8:35 ET): What in the world would possess a man (or woman!) to take a team like Southern Utah? Well, as I've stated previously, their opponent here (Eastern Washinhgton) happens to be one of the more fortunate teams in the entire country. Eastern Wash, despite a shiny looking 20-9 SU record, has only outscored its opponents by an average of 3.4 points per game this year. They've still managed to snub me a time here or there, most recently in an 82-72 win over Weber State last Thursday. But that was at home. Tonight, they're on the road and laying far more points than usual. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been favored on the road this year and the first by more than 3.5 points. Looking through Southern Utah's season (which admittedly is pretty ugly), you'll see that they are far more competitive at home. Though only 3-8 straight up at home, Southern Utah is being outscored by less than one point per game in those contests They average 82.5 PPG in here in Cedar City. Thus I can see them taking advantage of a leaky Eastern Washington defense that permits 76.7 PPG on the road. The Thunderbirds were able to match the oddsmakers projection for the 1st matchup vs. EWU, losing by "only" 15. I realize that included a "garbage time" comeback, but you can look for SUU to shoot a lot better tonight compared to that January game. They finished at just 35.8% at Eastern Washington. At home, they shoot 47.9% overall and 38.0% from three point range. With two games remaining, both at home, the Thunderbirds have a legit shot at finishing outside the Big Sky basement. All they need to do is win once and hope Idaho State loses out. I mentioned earlier that Eastern Washington has been a "lucky" team this year. The indespensible KenPom rankings have them as the third luckiest team in the nation. To help illustrate that point, they've gone 5-1 SU in overtime games this year including three wins in games that went to double or triple OT. Saturday's 89-77 win over Idaho State ensured the Eagles will be getting a 1st round bye in the upcoming conference tourney. Yes, they could still conceivably catch North Dakota for the regular season title, but that's unlikely due to North Dakota playing its final two games at home. Eastern Washington is just 5-8 SU in "true" road game this year, thus I certainly would not trust them as a favorite of this magnitude. 10* Southern Utah |
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03-02-17 | Warriors -7.5 v. Bulls | Top | 87-94 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:05 ET): I'm not afraid to "buy low" when there's some bad news and in the case of the Warriors, the bad news is that Kevin Durant is going to be out for at least the next four weeks. Let us not forget that w/o Durant this team set the regular season record for wins last year. They are certainly capable of continuing to win at their usual pace even w/o his services. That said, they do enter tonight's game in Chicago off a rare loss. Washington got them Tuesday, 112-108, but the Wizards are also a very good home team. I'm far less scared of the Bulls, who simply do not deserve to be in the same price range the Wizards were. Furthermore, Golden State is a perfect 9-0 SU this season when off a loss, winning by an average margin of 15.4 PPG. Lay the points. Chicago also suffered an outright loss as a favorite Tuesday. Only there's came here at home, 125-107 vs. Denver. Consider they actually led at halftime. While the Bulls had actually won their previous four games, there are plenty of reasons not to like this group moving forward. They seemed to be a "seller" at the trade deadline and HC Fred Hoiberg is openly talking about seeing what his younger players have to offer. I never liked the makeup of this team coming into the year and their best player, Jimmy Butler, has gone ice cold the L3 games. He's 18 of 53 from the floor and Hoiberg said he was never in a "rhythym" Tuesday vs. Denver. Like most Eastern Conference teams, the Bulls have been outscored over the course of this season. These teams met not long before the All-Star Break and the Dubs prevailed easily, 123-92 as lofty 19-point favorites. Judging by the line for tonight's rematch, I think it's safe to say that the oddsmakers have overreacted to the Durant injury. Granted Butler nor Dwyane Wade played in last month's meeting. But it was the third straight time the Warriors have beaten the Bulls by double digits. Chicago's season-worst effort on the defensive end in the last game is an obvious concern here facing the league's top offense. Expect Steph Curry (remember him?) to take charge w/ Durant out of the lineup. Klay Thompson also had 28 points (six 3-pt FG's) in Oakland vs. the Bulls, a game where the Dubs also happened to be coming off a loss. 8* Golden State |
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03-01-17 | Utah State v. UNLV +4.5 | Top | 59-66 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
8* UNLV (11:00 ET): The two Mountain West teams in question here experienced VERY different results in their respective last games. Of course, that means we can use those to our advantage as the team that experienced the much more unpleasant result (that would be UNLV) is now available at a far more affordable price than they ought to be. The Runnin' Rebels were run right off the court Saturday by Nevada, losing 94-58 here in Las Vegas. It was the Rebels' NINTH straight loss as clearly this program has fallen on hard times. As for Utah State, they are off an 89-58 drubbing of Air Force. Tonight marks the Aggies' regular season finale while UNLV still has one game left, at Fresno State, on Saturday. As bad as things have gotten for the Rebels, it is pretty shocking to see USU in the road favorite role. I'll take the points. Utah State has nothing to play for here. The Aggies have won their last two games, which has created some distance between themselves and the bottom two in the MWC, San Jose State and UNLV. After a 2-6 SU start in conf play, USU has won five of nine. As I just stated, they've won two straight. One would have to go back to the non-conference portion of the schedule (when they were facing a series of non-board teams) to find the last time the Aggies won three in a row (Dec 6-19). This is just the second time they've been able to pull off B2B conference wins. After winning at San Jose State last Wednesday, the Aggies played by far their most complete game in MWC play, crushing Air Force by 31 in Logan. They shot nearly 60 percent from the field in that game, a far cry from what we've seen most of this season, especially on the road. For the record, the Aggies shoot just 43% from the field away from home and are 3-10 SU in those games. Tonight marks the first (and only) time this year that they will be a road fave. Like Utah State on Saturday, I'm hoping Senior Night motivates UNLV to their strongest showing of the year. Clearly, it can't get any worse than what happened here on Saturday. Four of the Rebels' last five losses have now come by double digits. They haven't been a good shooting team this year, but recent opponents haven't been missing either. I know it was a 79-63 final when these teams met in Logan two months ago, but will Utah State really make 13 three-pointers again tonight? I think not. I also think that the Aggies may not be fully invested in this game being that it is their reg season finale. 8* UNLV |
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03-01-17 | Cavs v. Celtics +1.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): This is a very important game for the Celtics as far as establishing themselves in the Eastern Conference hierarchy. They've already gotten a break w/ Toronto losing Kyle Lowry for the remainder of the regular season. One would now think the Celtics are a lock for the #2 seed in the East, though Washington may have something to say about that. Still, the team Boston is more concerned with is Cleveland, whom they trail by four games entering tonight's showdown. The Cavs had a great February, losing only two of 11 games and LeBron James didn't play in one of the losses. But it was also somewhat of an easy schedule and they haven't been on the road since the All-Star Break. They are 0-6 ATS this season coming off three or more consecutive home games. Boston did itself no favors on Monday, losing here at home to Atlanta by a score of 114-98. They were 4.5-pt favorites. While the loss looks bad, note it was the second game of a back to back. They'd won in Detroit the previous night. Truth be told, neither of those L2 games were good shooting nights for the Celtics. Critical to Monday's loss was Isaiah Thomas going just 4 of 21 from the field. I expect both him and the team to improve tonight against a Cleveland defense that is nothing more than middle of the road. In fact, the defending World Champs come into this game ranked a pretty ugly 20th in defensive efficiency. Boston averages a strong 109.5 points per game at home for the year. Though it hasn't been enough, in two games vs. Cleveland this year, they've averaged 120 PPG. Both Cavs wins over the Celtics this season saw strong efforts from Kevin Love, who is not in the lineup right now. The Champs have bolstered their roster in recent days, but it may take a bit for the new pieces (Deron Williams, etc) to gel. The Cavs have actually been outscored on the road this year (give up 108.4 PPG!), so I'm not sure they should be favored here. The two earlier season meetings w/ Boston were both played in Cleveland. The Celtics are 5-2 ATS following a double digit loss this year and considering they're off a home loss and have a five-game West Coast swing looming, motivation should be high for the home team in this nationally televised affair. 8* Boston |
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03-01-17 | Rhode Island v. St. Joe's +8.5 | Top | 68-49 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* St. Joseph's (7:00 ET): It has been an absolutely miserable season for St. Joe's, one that has seen them lose numerous players to injury. It's a sharp contrast to last year when they were one of the top ATS teams in the entire country. Entering tonight's home finale, the Hawks have lost eight in a row. Saturday's 61-60 loss at St. Louis (were favored by 4.5) was probably the most embarrassing setback of them all. Rather than attempt to tie the game (were down three w/ only seconds remaining), James Demery elected to make a simple layup, leaving his team w/ a one-point loss. The result also leaves St. Joe's tied w/ Duquesne for the bottom spot in the Atlantic 10 Conference. But if there's anything that could provide a little boost to this downtrodden program right now, it's Senior Night. I'll take the points. Rhode Island provides the opposition for St. Joe's tonight. While they destroyed the Hawks 88-58 in the first meeting (back on 1.3), this is obviously a road game. The Rams have won their L4 A-10 roadies plus are coming off a big 69-59 home victory over VCU on Saturday. They are trying to lock down the #3 seed for the upcoming conference tourney. But might they be coming into this game a little overconfident? Neither they nor their opponents have shot the ball well these L5 games. Remember that this is a team that lost 53-43, at home, to Fordham not that long ago. URI couldn't miss the first time they played St. Joe's, hitting an incredible 16 of 30 three-point attempts. For the year, they average just six makes per game from behind the arc. They'll score a lot less in tonight's rematch. While St. Joe's has not won since late January, they've generally been competitive. Four of the previous seven losses have been by seven points or fewer. As bad as things have gotten, this is just the fourth time we find the Hawks getting points at home this year. Not only that, but it will be the MOST points that they've gotten in any home game so far. Rhode Island's win over VCU coupled with their "bubble" status has them overvalued in this situation. 10* St. Joe's |
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02-28-17 | DePaul v. Providence -11 | Top | 64-73 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
8* Providence (8:30 ET): Major revenge spot here for the Friars, who lost 64-63 to DePaul earlier in the year, on a last second three-point play. Up until last week, that was the Blue Demons' lone win in Big East play! (They beat Georgetown two points Wednesday). Both teams have been hot at the betting window, Providence especially, but considering the revenge angle and their "bubble status," I expect a rout from the home team here. This is the final home game and Senior Night for Providence, so clearly all the motivational factors you look for, are present here. Lay the points. Admittedly, Providence has done most of its damage at the betting window as an underdog. It's not often we find them favored and this will easily be the most points they've been asked to lay to any Big East opponent. But that makes sense given that they are hosting the last place team. They are just 2-2 SU/ATS as a fave in conf play, but did cover the last time in the role, which was a 75-63 home win over Xavier. In that first meeting w/ the Blue Demons, they led by nine at halftime, but were ultimately undone by 20 turnovers. They haven't turned it over that many times in a game since. In Saturday's 73-69 win over Marquette, they rallied from a double digit deficit, a huge win. Seeking revenge for a road loss, the Friars are now 6-1 ATS this season. They have also covered their last seven games overall! So DePaul's two conference wins have come by a total of three points. They are being outscored by 11.5 points per game in Big East play and average only 62.7 PPG on the road. Look for them to struggle again offensively tonight as Providence is giving up only 63.8 PPG at home this year. After being competitive in both games last week (lost by only three at home to Seton Hall on Saturday), look for the Blue Demons to revert back to past form. They'd lost five straight by double digits before the win over Georgetown. While a perfect 4-0 ATS the L4 games, two of those saw them come in as large underdogs. Providence knows they let one "slip away" the first time these met and isn't about to let that happen again. 8* Providence |
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02-28-17 | St. John's v. Creighton -11 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* Creighton (8:00 ET): It is not a good scene right now in Omaha. Creighton's starting point guard Maurice Watson has been arrested for alleged sexual assault and less important is that the team is on a two-game losing streak. This is the backdrop for the home finale tonight against St. John's. Clearly, it would be easy to dismiss the Blue Jays as double digit favorites here, but the contrarian in me sees an opportunity to "buy low." The Blue Jays remain one of the most efficient offenses in the game and note that Watson had actually been out dating back to Feb 6 due to a season-ending knee injury. So while the latest news is very serious, the team had already been w/o him for several games. St. John's does not scare me, particularly on the road. Lay the points. Now there are signs that missing Watson was significantly hurting Creighton. They've lost five of nine overall, including three of five since his knee injury. But several of those losses were close, most notably a 68-66 loss to Providence last Wednesday, which was the last time the Blue Jays played a home game. Few teams are going to win at Villanova, which is where they played over the weekend. That 79-63 loss is a little misleading in the sense that it was actually a tie game at halftime. The only other time this season that Creighton found itself coming off B2B losses was on January 28th when they routed DePaul. They have covered 14 of their last 18 games against teams w/ a losing record. They come in averaging 84.3 PPG at home and already beat St. John's earlier in the year, 85-72 as seven-point road favorites. The road has generally been unkind to the Johnnies. Six of their seven Big East road games have resulted in double digit losses. They are off a win over Georgetown, but that was at home. They can thank 22 Hoyas' turnovers for that one, not to mention the fact they were able to shoot 7 of 13 from three-point range. I would not expect to see a repeat of either of those numbers here tonight against a desperate and motivated Creighton side. In that first meeting, Creighton really dominated and led by 18 at the half. Chris Mullin's bench could be a little thinner than normal here as Darien Williams is questionable w/ an ankle injury. 8* Creighton |
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02-28-17 | Jazz v. Thunder | Top | 106-109 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): Incredibly, I still think most bettors are severely underrating the Jazz. I took them Sunday and "all they did" there was hand Washington its first regulation loss at home in over two months! Impressively, it was a game Utah dominated throughout. They led by as many as 24 in the second half. They destroyed the Wizards on the glass and got to the free throw line far more frequently. Gordon Hayward led the way w/ 30 pts, but let's not "sell short" Rudy Gobert's performance as the Frechman had 15 pts, 20 rebounds and four blocks, a very nice statline. The Jazz have not only posted three straight double digts wins, but they continue to lead the league in points allowed (95.4) and I think are a great bet tonight in Oklahoma City. The Thunder also come into tonight riding a three-game win streak. But their 118-110 win over New Orleans Sunday was a little tougher than the final score seems to indicate. Russell Westbrook did have 41 points and another triple double, but that final margin represented the most points OKC led by the entire game. It wasn't until the final minutes that they started to pull away. In fact, it was no more than a two possession game (w/ the Pelicans leading) most of the game. As I've mentioned many times before, the Thunder's offensive efficiency has gone down the toilet w/o Kevin Durant. The team ranks a shocking 20th in that category and is actually being outscored on a per possession basis over the course of the season. Tonight marks a big step up in class from the three previous opponents: New York, the Lakers and New Orleans. Utah has revenge here for a two-point home loss last month. They are 70-42 ATS in all revenge situations the L3 seasons, including 36-11 if the loss was at home. Rodney Hood did not play for the Jazz in that last meeting. Utah is a solid road team (17-11 straight up!) and they are 2-0 SU/ATS this season off a SU win as a dog. I just don't like this Thunder team beyond Westbrook and Victor Oladipo remains unavailable. Look for OKC to struggle offensively in this matchup. 10* Utah |
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02-27-17 | North Carolina v. Virginia +2.5 | Top | 43-53 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
10* Virginia (7:00 ET): North Carolina is as hot as any team in the country currently. They should find themselves in the Top 5 when the new poll is released later today. It's been four straight wins and covers for the Tar Heels, one of them being a 65-41 destruction of Virginia in Chapel Hill. Tonight is the rematch at John Paul Jones Arena. The Hoos picked up a much needed win Saturday, turning in one of their better offensive efforts in some time at the expense of hapless NC State. I also happen to fell that Tony Bennett's team is underrated as I still consider them among the top 20 in the country. The revenge angle is strong here and as I suspected might happen UNC comes in as an underserved favorite. Virginia is still the top defensive team in the country. Take the points. When these teams met nine days ago in Chapel Hill, it was all Tar Heels. Virginia had an atrocious shooting night, making only 27.8% of their overall field goal attempts, including 2 of 10 from three point range. It was a 65-41 final, a game where UNC was a six-point home favorite. The Virginia offense would again be held below 50 pts in a home loss to Miami last Monday (overtime game!), but then bounced back w/ what was definitely one of the better efforts in sometime. Saturday at NC State saw the Hoos shoot 48.9% overall including a blistering 11 of 16 from three-point range. The team was due to start shooting better and I think Saturday will be a big confidence boost. Defensively, there are no issues here. HC Bennett's "pack line" defense gives up the fewest number of points per game in the country at 55.8. That numbers dips down to 51.1 in home games w/ their oppnents shooting just 36.7%. North Carolina followed its win over Virginia by beating Louisville pretty handily last Wednesday. The L'ville game was also at home. Then they went to Pitt on Saturday and won 85-67 as eight-point chalk. Clearly, HC Roy Williams has his team playing well at the right time, but tonight marks the 1st time they've had to play B2B road games in a three day span since ACC play began. Not surprisingly, this will be the 1st time that Virginia has been a home dog all season. In fact, it's been a very long time since they've been a dog to anyone in Charlottesville. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-3 ATS taking points, all of those being road games. This game means more to Virginia than it does North Carolina, who hosts Duke in the reg season finale on Saturday. 10* Virginia |
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02-26-17 | Hornets +10 v. Clippers | Top | 121-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (9:35 ET): The Hornets (finally!) won a game yday, beating the depleted Kings 99-85 in Sacramento (closed as 4-pt favorites). I think they're being severely undervalued here in the second game of the back to back against the Clippers. Of course, losing 12 of your previous 13 games straight up while going 2-10-1 ATS will do that. But I made the case yday and will continue to do so today, that right now Charlotte is a great "buy low" team. Some might want to say the same about the Clippers, who are off B2B losses (Golden State and San Antonio), the latest coming in Chris Paul's return to the floor. But Paul being back has driven the price up way too high in my estimation. A SU win, but non-cover for LA is your most likely result here. Take the points. "Chris hadn't played and you could see that. We played on one side of the floor for most of the night (Friday). It felt like the same way when Blake (Griffin) came back the first game. We were moving, but we just weren't in sync." Those words come by way of Clippers HC Doc Rivers. I agree w/ the notion that it will take some time for Paul to fully integrate himself back into the lineup. He scored 17 points to go along with six rebounds and five assists vs. San Antonio. The 105-97 loss snapped the team's 5-game ATS win streak. This will obviously be the first time laying this many points in awhile. The last two times they were asked to lay 10 or more was against the likes of Orlando and the Lakers. While Paul being back certainly accounts for "something," Charlotte is definitely a higher caliber opponent than those previously mentioned foes. The Hornets won Saturday despite shooting only 40% from the floor. They actually led by 21 going into the fourth quarter. That makes it three consecutive games they've taken a double digit lead into the 4Q and all of those games were on the road. They blew the first two, at Toronto and Detroit. However, the vast majority of their losses during the recent skid you'll notice were close games. This team still ranks fifth in the East in point differential and net efficiency rating. While they've had little to no success against the Clippers in recent years, the last meeting was decided by only five points in Charlotte and the Hornets actually checked in as the slight favorite. Good value on the road dog here. 10* Charlotte |
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02-26-17 | Jazz +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
8* Utah (5:05 ET): Washington was perhaps the hottest team in the league going into the All-Star Break. They'd won 18 of 21. So that made Friday's 120-112 loss at Philadelphia somewhat surprising. John Wall turned in his 18th 20-10 (pts-assists) game of the year while Bradley Beal scored a game-high 40 pts. But the rest of the team contributed very little and the Wizards actually trailed by double digits going into the fourth quarter. While Washington is third in the East, tonight's opponent (Utah) is fourth in the stronger West. I don't think that the Jazz get nearly the credit they deserve as they are absolutely a top five team in the entire league, by my ratings. Their second half started w/ a takedown of Milwaukee on the road and this is absolutely an instance of the better team getting points. Washington has suffered just ONE home loss since December 6th. It came in overtime against Cleveland on Feb 6, a game which saw LeBron James make an insane buzzer beater (falling out of bounds, banked in) at the end of regulation. So it's easy to understand why they are favored here. Utah is surprisingly just 3-11 ATS when priced as an underdog this season as they've averaged only 94.6 PPG in those contests. Their defense also gets significantly worse as they allow 101.7 PPG as opposed to just 93.4 PPG when favored. That being said, it certainly does appear as if the sharp money has spoken on this game w/ the majority of tickets coming in on the Wizards, but the line dropping anyway. To me, it's a pick 'em matchup, even factoring in the home court. While the difference between the teams' offensive efficiencies is somewhat neglibile, the Jazz have a major edge on the defensive end where they rank third in the league in efficiency. No team allows fewer points per game than the Jazz. They held Milwaukee to 95 Friday night, the third straight game holding a foe below 100. The only teams in the league giving up fewer points per possession are San Antonio and Golden State and the difference is close. After Utah, there's a pretty large drop off in points per possession. Offensively, they shot 50% against the Bucks and the game was never really in doubt following an 18-2 first quarter run. Washington giving up 120 pts to the 30th ranked team in offensive efficiency (Philly) was not a good look and I'll point out that the Wiz's winning run was built up by playing a LOT of bad teams. 8* Utah |
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02-26-17 | Middle Tennessee v. UAB +6 | Top | 66-64 | Win | 100 | 4 h 30 m | Show |
10* UAB (1:00 ET): Middle Tennessee is the top dog in Conference USA and truth be told, one of the few mid-majors capable of winning a NCAA Tournament game this year. But this is going to be a tough spot for them visiting UAB. While they've been off since last Saturday, this will be the Blue Raiders' third consecutive road contest. UAB has also been off for a week and the Blazers will undoubtedly treat this as their biggest game of the year. Not just because it's a visit from MTSU, but also because they're desperate to end a season-worst three game losing streak. Prior to a 60-49 loss on New Year's Day, UAB had covered four straight head to head w/ the Blue Raiders. They were 8.5-pt road dogs in that game, so when you factor in the change in venue, this appears to be a really solid value. Take the points. Middle Tennessee has lost only one conference game and four games total this season. Three of those losses took place before X-Mas, so overall they've won 14 of 15 w/ the only loss coming by three at insanely hot UTEP. They are coming off a 97-point effort vs. Marshall, which was their highest scoring effort against any D-I opponent all season. However, concerning is that they also allowed the Thundering Herd to score 60 pts - in the second half! That win clinched the #1 seed for the upcoming conference tourney, so the Blue Raiders don't have much to play for here down the stretch. That makes them a shaky bet laying points, particularly on the road. Not only is MTSU 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts, they are 1-4 ATS after scoring 80+ pts. Conference USA has a lot of bad teams, so some of their margins of victory this season aren't really as impressive as you might think. UAB is just 1-5 SU/ATS in the month of February and they were actually favored in FOUR of those games. So they've certainly been falling short of the oddsmakers' expectations. That's also the case when priced as a dog as their record in that role this season is just 1-6 ATS. But this will be the FIRST time they've gotten points at home all year. They are 10-3 SU here w/ an avg MOV of 13.2 points per game, which is obviously impressive. I view this as an excellent "buy low" opportunity w/ the team shockingly off three straight DD losses. The last two were on the road. Before losing here to Old Dominion on 2.11, the Blazers had won 26 straight C-USA home games! 10* UAB |
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02-25-17 | CS-Northridge v. UC-Irvine -9.5 | Top | 80-83 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
8* UC Irvine (10:30 ET): I think most people would consider UC Irvine the class of a weak Big West Conference. However, the Anteaters now find themselves in a first place tie w/ UC Davis (both 9-5 SU) after dropping a game on the road Thursday (as 5.5-pt favorites) to Cal State Fullerton, 56-54. It was a game they led by six midway through the second half. Given that they held CS Fullerton to 31.4% from the field for the game, including 4 of 21 from three-point range, it's a game the Anteaters probably feel they "should" have won. An interesting thing I found in breaking down that box score is that while CS Fullerton shot slightly worse than did UC Irvine, they also had 21 more attempts from the field (offensive rebounding!). Rarely do you see a discrepancy like that. With the Anteaters somewhat desperate to bounce back, the line for tonight's matchup against Cal State Northridge looks far too low to me. Let's start w/ the fact that UC Irvine won the season's first meeting 105-73, on the road! While topping the century mark obviously grabbed the headlines there (season high in points scored), it was also another in a long line of solid efforts on the defensive floor for the Anteaters as well. They held Northridge to just 30.3% shooting for the game. Ranking 37th nationally in points per game allowed (65.1), they allow only 60.6 PPG at home. In terms of field goal percentage defense, the numbers get even more impressive as opponents are shooting only 38.3% against HC Turner's outfit. Meanwhile, CS Northridge's defensive numbers look somewhat horrific in comparison as they allow 81.3 PPG. Making life even more challenging for the underdog here is that they are now w/o starter Rakim Lubin, who was lost for the season due to an Achilles tear. This will also be the Matadors' second road game in three nights. Thursday, their lousy defense again cost them as they gave up 96 points in an ugly loss at UC Davis. The two road games in three nights scenario tends to be a killer on most College teams more often than not, but having to do so against the top two teams in your league is particularly brutal. Throw in the fact that it's Homecoming tonight on campus and UC Irvine should be extra motivated. It just looks like the oddsmakers were "asleep" in setting a low line for this one. 8* UC Irvine |
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02-25-17 | Delaware v. Elon -11.5 | Top | 59-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* Elon (7:00 ET): Today marks the end of the regular season in the Colonial, so all the home teams should be fairly "fired up" on their respective Senior Days. But none more so than Elon, who is trying to solidify its place among the top four in the upcoming CAA Tournament. The Phoenix are off a heartbreaker Thursday night as they fell here at home in double overtime, 105-104, to Northeastern. They fell prey to a freshman, Bolden Brace, hitting 10 three-pointers in a stunning display that led to a career-high 40 points. Losing at home when you score 81 points in regulation and turn the ball over just three times is pretty frustrating. Luckily, Elon will have Delaware to kick around tonight. The Blue Hens are playing their second road game in three days, having just lost at College of Charleston Thursday. It was their second straight double digit defeat. Lay the points. Delaware has just five conference wins, putting them in second to last place, ahead of only Drexel. Three of the wins came in a row earlier this month and one of them came at Elon's expense. It was another OT loss for Elon, this one coming by a score of 76-74 as seven-point chalk. That was also the first of three straight wins that all came by two points or less for Delaware. As alluded to above, they have since regressed w/ B2B double digit losses to William & Mary and Charleston. The road has generally been unkind to the Blue Hens this season as they are just 3-13 SU away from home and getting outscored by about 14 PPG. Looking at the line for the first matchup between these teams and then factoring in the change in venue, this looks to be a really solid value on Elon. Senior Night should obviously have the home team highly motivated here as should Thursday's loss. In the first go around w/ Delaware, the Phoenix shot only 40.7% from the field. We should see a stark rise in offensive production here as they are averaging 82.3 PPG at home this season. But it's largely been the defensive end of the floor where Elon has been excelled this year, at least in CAA play. They are tops in the conference, holding opponents to just 42.3% from the field. Thursday's game vs. Northeastern marked an "off night" as they allowed the Huskies to shoot 50%, the highest percentage by an opponent during the conf schedule. Previously, they'd held 10 of 11 opponents below 45% from the field. They are 9-1 SU this year when holding the opponent below 40%, not a surprising record, but what is key is that Delaware shoots just 39.9% on the road. Elon is also the top defensive rebounding team in the conference. They are 6-1 ATS this season after allowing 80+ points the previous game, so again, this looks like a clear bounce back spot for them. 10* Elon |
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02-25-17 | Hornets -2.5 v. Kings | Top | 99-85 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (5:05 ET): It appears as if the Hornets are falling apart. I took them on Thursday, getting 4.5 points at Detroit. They led the Pistons by as many 18, but ended up not even covering despite the game going into overtime. This was the second consecutive game where they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost. The other was at Toronto right before the Break. As a result, Charlotte now finds itself nine games below .500 and 3.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the East. So, it's now or never. I continue to lean on the fact that they still sport the East's fifth best point differential and sixth best net efficiency rating. Having covered only TWO of their previous 14 games, isn't it about time that the Hornets are just due? Lay the points. Sacramento surprised everyone on Thursday, winning the 1st game of the post Boogie Cousins era. They were seven-point dogs here at home against Denver. Honestly, I was not all that shocked as you knew they were likely to be written off by the public and oddsmakers in the wake of the debacle that was the Cousins trade. GM Vlade Divac appears to be not very good at his job. Now it's time for reality to set in for the Kings, who aren't likely to be a very competitive team down the stretch. Off a double digit win this year, the team's record is just 1-5 SU and ATS. I don't see them shooting as well as they did Thursday night (52.3%), not w/ the likes of Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans and Darren Collison being heavily relied upon. It was a break facing Denver, who ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency. The Kings rank 24th in that category. Charlotte has shown that they can play well. At least for three quarters, they looked quite good against both Toronto and Detroit, taking double digit leads into the fourth quarter. Both games were on the road. In my analysis for the Detroit game, I did note the Hornets' awful record when priced as an underdog this year (now 1-16 SU!). Well, they're favored today, so we don't have to worry about that. I continue to believe that the time is right to "buy low" on this team. This is also a revenge spot from a 109-106 home loss last month as seven-point favorites. 10* Charlotte |
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02-24-17 | Celtics v. Raptors -3 | Top | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Raptors were limping (badly) before the All-Star Break, but picked up what I feel was a huge win in their last game, beating Charlotte 90-85. Maybe that doesn't sound all that impressive to you, but consider Toronto was down by 17 entering the fourth quarter and on a three-game losing streak. Tonight's nationally televised contests shapes up as a huge showdown in the Atlantic Division. The public perception is that Boston has surpassed Toronto as the top challenger to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics, in fact, do have a four-game lead in the standings. But the Raptors' net efficiency rating and point differential is better, which indicates this race is nowhere near over. Toronto is also 10-2 SU/ATS vs. division foes including a 2-1 mark vs. Boston. Lay the short number w/ the home team. In the month leading up to Break, Toronto went just 5-11 straight up. But they took an abnormal number of close losses. Six were by five pts or less and four were by two points or less! That's what made the rally against Charlotte so important. The Raptors are still 19-10 SU at home this year and outscoring their visitors by a healthy average of 8.5 points per game. One of the most efficient offenses in the league, they average 111.6 PPG at home this year. They also are averaging 113.1 PPG in division contests. This is a revenge spot as they lost in Boston on the 1st of February, 109-104. Previously though, they'd beaten them twice. Overall, they are 8-3 ATS their L11 games vs. the Celtics including 4-1 at home. Avery Bradley is still expected to be M.I.A. for Boston, which is a big deal. Yes, they won 11 of 13 going into the Break and last Thursday's loss to Chicago was highly controversial. But their SU record as an underdog is only 6-11 SU and this number is short enough that it probably won't factor in. While Boston stood pat at the trade deadline Toronto added a couple of key pieces in PJ Tucker and Serge Ibaka. They, not the Celtics, are the second best team in the East and I believe they'll use tonight's national showcase to reaffirm that. 8* Toronto |
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02-24-17 | Grizzlies v. Pacers +1 | Top | 92-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): Only the atrocious Nets were colder going into the All-Star Break than were the Pacers. Indiana has lost six straight, but still remains in sixth place in the wide open East. Yet, with uncertainly and unhappiness now abound, it is clearly in the team's best interest to end this skid ASAP. Especially considering the number of teams within striking distance. I think the time off will prove to be good for them. While four of the six losses did come here at home, note the Pacers' record here is still an impressive 20-10 SU. They also had to play a pretty hard schedule before the break w/ two games against Cleveland, two against Washington (hottest team in the league) and another vs. San Antonio. With the team's next five game all on the road, I'm figuring the coaching staff has this one labeled as a "must win." Memphis lost its final game before the All-Star Break, as eight-point favorites, to New Orleans. They too are in sixth place in their conference, although the West is better and so is the Grizzlies' record compared to that of the Pacers. The Grizz figure to battle w/ OKC the rest of the way for the six seed. While I think that the time off for the Pacers was probably for the best, the same cannot be said for Memphis, who has failed to cover both times this year they've played w/ three or more days rest. In fact, they are just 2-8 ATS this year when playing w/ two or more days rest. They're also 3-6 ATS coming off a SU loss as a favorite. Another surprise is that they have a losing record (10-11 SU) vs. the Eastern Conference. Again, not sure Memphis should be getting such respect from the linesmakers here, especially w/ an offense that ranks just 19th in efficiency. Indiana's recent problems can be tied to a lack of defense. They've given up an average of 116 points per game during the losing streak w/ all six opponents scoring 110 or more. But again, they had to face some of the top offenses in the league during this time. I like the Pacers' chances even more tonight if they get Thaddeus Young back in the lineup. Reportedly, Young went through 5 on 5 drills yesterday and seems ready to go. It's not as if the Pacers have been dominated during the losing streak and it should be pointed out they'd won seven in a row previous to it. I put a lot of stock in that 20-10 SU home record and expect the losing streak to end tonight. 10* Indiana |
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02-24-17 | Oilers +1.5 v. Capitals | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Edmonton (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am backing the Oilers at +1.5. Edmonton has improved a lot this year, so it's rare to be able to play them on the PL this way, at least at a reasonable price. Of course, the opponent has something to do with this as Washington comes in - pretty clearly - as the best team in the league. But while the Caps may be 7-1-1 this month and have only five regulation losses at home all year, there's been some good fortune along the way. Approximately half of their games (26 of 59) have been decided by one goal w/ most of those seeing them come out on the winning end. Such a result would be just fine were it to occur again tonight, but I also think the underdog Oilers could win here as well. Edmonton has won four of five overall and now finds itself tied for second place in the Pacific Division. It has been an impressive leap up the standings this year for a team that finished w/ only 70 points last year. They've already surpassed that number in 2016-17 and we still have more than a month to go in the regular season. Key to their success has been one of the top road records in the league at 18-10-5. They just won at red hot Florida two nights ago, 4-3. They put 35 shots on goal in the win. This team also recently won at Chicago, so it's not as if they haven't proven they can beat the top teams on the road. Furthermore, the Oilers' record after scoring 4+ goals in their previous game is 11-5 this year. Very early in the season, they beat Washington 4-1 at home. Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby has actually struggled some of late w/ a poor .896 save percentage his L4 starts. The teams still won all four times, largely because of an offense which was able to tally 21 goals. I don't see that kind of production being matched tonight as the Oilers' Cam Talbot has been pretty hot of late w/ a .933 save percentage his L4 starts. The Oilers are a surprising 7th in goals allowed. The 4-3 win over Florida on Wednesday marked the 27th time this year that an Edmonton game was decided by just one goal. Their eight shootouts are tied for second most in the league. 8* Puck Line Edmonton (+1.5) |
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02-24-17 | Pennsylvania v. Cornell +5 | Top | 69-66 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Cornell (7:00 ET): Penn should probably not be laying points on the road, against anyone. Granted, the Quakers did just win a pair of road games last week, one of them as a favorite (at Brown). But following what is now a four-game SU/ATS win streak, they certainly seem to be a bit overvalued for this trip to Cornell. Tonight marks the first home game for the Big Red in nearly three weeks. They went just 1-3 SU on the road over the L2 weeks, which included an 82-63 loss at Penn, who were 6.5-pt favorites. That certainly makes this line curious by comparison. It was the Quakers fifth straight win and cover in this Ivy League rivalry, so while history may not be on Cornell's side Friday, the law of averages certainly is. Take the points. Penn was just 7-12 SU overall before this win streak started two weeks ago. Admittedly, it has been a pretty dominant four-game run. After beating Columbia 70-62 at home exactly two weeks ago, the Quakers have rattled off three straight wins by 16 or more points. Against Cornell, they shot 54.7% from the field (Big Red shot 38.9%). Incredibly, the Quakers 42-14 going into halftime. Needless to say, that kind of advantage happens maybe once or twice all season. The sharpshooting continued last week at both Brown and Yale as Penn finished above 50% from the field in both games, including 57.6% against Brown. To call this stretch of hot shooting "surprising" would be an understatement. For the year, the team is just 284th nationally, averaging only 68.7 points per game. Of course, Yale shooting only 32.8% from the floor on Saturday helped as well. This year will see the 1st ever conference tournament in the Ivy League. Only the top four teams make it. Right now, Princeton, Harvard and Yale all appear to be sitting pretty. The fourth spot is absolutely still up for grabs. Thanks to the four-game win streak, Penn is now in position to qualify. But lest we forget, a 4-6 SU record in conference play means that the Quakers started 0-6! Cornell is just one game back at 3-7 SU. I expect the Big Red to play a lot better at home where they average 77.9 PPG for the year. Meanwhile, I expect all these road game to start catching up w/ Penn. 10* Cornell |
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02-23-17 | Weber State +3 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Weber State (9:05 ET): This is a big game in Big Sky country. Weber State once the conference, but has suffered two of its three losses over the past four games. The one that really hurt came last Saturday at home to North Dakota. That allowed the Fighting Hawks to take over first place. Weber State trails by just one-half game, so a win here and they are tied, although UND swept the season series. Not far behind is also Eastern Washington, who is 10-4 SU in Big Sky contests, which puts them one game back of Weber State. When these teams met the first time, Weber State was a NINE-point favorite and I just don't think enough has changed since that time to justify the rather massive swing we're seeing here from the oddsmakers. I'll take the points. Not only has Weber State suffered a pair of SU losses recently; they've also failed to cover the spread in six straight games. This will be just the second time in conference play that they have been an underdog. The first was all the way back on New Year's Eve when they went to Montana (were +2.5) and won 84-81. Remember that these Wildcats opened Big Sky play 4-0 and 9-1. There have been a number of close calls recently, but I just don't see the justification in making this team a dog in this spot, even on the road. There are no significant injuries to speak of. It's not often that I go w/ the road team in College Hoops, but I'll make an exception here as the Wildcats are 4-1 ATS taking points this year. They were 5.5-pt favorites against North Dakota last Saturday. By the metrics, Eastern Washington has been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They are an amazing 5-1 SU in overtime games including three wins in games that went to double or triple overtime! Their only loss over the last five games also came at North Dakota. They've since responded w/ a couple blowout wins over a couple of bad teams, Northern Colorado and Idaho. Even there, the Eagles experienced a bit of "luck" as those two teams combined to shoot below 35% from the field. Don't count on that kind of fortune here as Weber State comes in shooting at a 49.5% clip for the year including a lights out 41.9% from three-point range. It took a big second half rally to beat EWU the first time, but still I really disagree w/ this pointspread. 8* Weber State |
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02-23-17 | Rockets -3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 129-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): As I'd anticipated, New Orleans is being overvalued in the wake of the Boogie Cousins trade. Despite that, the Pelicans could very well still make a run at the 8-seed in the Western Conference. But here, they'll be facing one of the league's top teams and the number is just far too short. Houston is a top five ATS team in the league and has gone 20-8 ATS against foes w/ a losing record. New Orleans, remember, is only 23-34 SU. In the only prior meeting this year, the Rockets won 122-100 as they actually led by that same 22-point margin after one half of play. They were big 12-point home favorites in that game as well. It's going to take time for Cousins and Anthony Davis to gel. Lay the short number w/ the road team here. Even before the Cousins trade, New Orleans had created some momentum for itself. They went 3-1 SU/ATS on a four-game road trip, losing only (ironically enough) to Cousins and his old team, Sacramento. They pulled outright upsets over Minnesota, Phoenix and Memphis. But the fact they were a dog against those first two speaks volumes about what the marketplace thought of them. Remember that Cousins has never been part of a winning team. Even Davis, as outstanding as he is, hasn't had a ton of success so far in his NBA career. The team also lost some depth in dealing for Cousins. It's not like they were deep to begin with. Even w/ Davis' presence, the Pelicans' ranked just 27th in the league in offensive efficiency. Davis didn't really get any kind of break over the weekend as he was the MVP of the All-Star Game. Houston lost its last game - as a 10-pt favorite - to Miami last Wednesday. I chalk that up to the team looking forward to the All-Star Break. They'd been off the three days prior and were on a four-game win streak. Moving forward, I see no reason to not expect this team to solidify its place as one of the three best teams in the West. With James Harden running the show, they obviously can score in bunches. Currently, they are second (only trailing Golden State) in the league, averaging 114.4 PPG. They are fully healthy coming out of the Break w/ Patrick Beverley back and Lou Williams being brought into the fold. At 19-11 ATS, this is one of the top two road teams at the betting windown in the entire league. 8* Houston |
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02-23-17 | Hornets +4.5 v. Pistons | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): It sure is nice to have the NBA back, isn't it? Charlotte was a team that did not end the 1st half well. They went into the All-Star Break on a real tailspin. They've covered only two of their last 13 games overall and are just 3-10 SU over that same span. Their final game before the Break was perhaps the most painful result yet as they blew a huge lead in Toronto (outscored 32-10 in 4Q!) and lost 90-85 as six-point pups. Hey, at least they covered! I expect this to be one of the more motivated teams coming out of the Break. Note they still own the East's sixth best net efficiency rating and point differential. That's more than you can say for Detroit, who is 2.5 games up on Charlotte, but also an inferior team according to the numbers. Take the points. The Pistons had their own struggles in the 1st half, but went into the Break on a 6-3 SU/ATS run. They are clearly a much better team at home (17-11 SU), but they've still been outscored overall over the course of the season. Shooting remains an issue. They are 28th in the league in "true" shooting. They've failed to score 100 pts in three of the last four games. Something to keep in mind is that the team's longest win streak all year is only three games, so sustained success is not something we're seeing in the Motor City. The majority of their recent wins have come against the dregs of the league, such as Philadelphia, the Lakers and Dallas. There was also a miracle one-point win at Toronto. Simply put, even after factorinig in home court advantage, I do not believe the Pistons should be favored to this degree. Charlotte is clearly in "do or die" mode to start the second half. Their next six games will all be on the road, the next five out West. They do get a break in that they avoid most of the top Western Conference teams on the trip. It is shocking to see the team's record as an underdog is 1-15 straight up. But, again, I expect that to turn around. They have lost two of three to the Pistons this season, but the last meeting (which took place here in Detroit) was a one-point game. A buzzer-beater from Marco Belinelli was disallowed as it came a split second too late. Had it counted, it would have been the punctuation mark on a 47-30 run to close the game. I'm sure the Hornets players will be eager for revenge. They turned it over only five times in that game. 10* Charlotte |
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02-23-17 | UTEP v. Florida Atlantic +1 | Top | 60-55 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (7:00 ET): The rise of UTEP is one of the most "under the radar" stunning things of this entire College Basketball season. Basically "left for dead" at 2-13 SU, the Miners have inexplicably won 9 of 11 and covered 10 consecutive games! I suppose this is somewhat comparable to what the Heat did in the NBA. But like the Heat, the idea of UTEP being a legit threat in Conference USA seems a bit far-fetched. Tonight, they are at Florida Atlantic. It was a one-point game (66-65 UTEP) when these teams met earlier in this season and that was the last time the Miners did NOT cover (were -1). This ATS streak is bound to end and considering the team has lost straight up each of the previous two times it has been on a three-game win streak, tonight looks like the night! FAU stopped a three-game losing streak w/ a 94-82 win at lowly Southern Miss Saturday. It was the Owls' highest scoring game of the year against a D-I opponent. They shot 61.2% from the field and made 15 three-pointers. Will they be able to match those numbers tonight? Probably not. But let's give this team some credit. Save for games against the top two teams in their league (Middle Tenn, LA Tech), they have been competitive virtually every time out. Five of their C-USA losses have come by six pts or fewer, two of them in overtime. Earlier in the year though, the Owls went to Ohio State and won in OT! While just 4-8 SU at home this year, the Owls have only been outscored here by an average of 1.2 PPG. They are better than their record shows. There's been a stark contrast w/ UTEP when it comes to close games. The Miners' stunning surge has largely been a byproduct of winning a lot of close ones. Of their nine conference victories, five have been by six points or less and three were decided in overtime. Two were one-point games, one of those the win over FAU, a game which did to go OT. That game was decided on a buzzer-beater and was actually the Miners' second straight one-point win in OT at the time. There have been four wins by four points or less for UTEP during the 9-2 SU run. So what I'm saying is that they're due to lose a close one. There's definitely some value here on FAU considering the change in venue as it was a 1-pt spread in El Paso. Again, UTEP has failed to win both times they've been on a three-game win streak this season. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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02-22-17 | Providence v. Creighton -8 | Top | 68-66 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
8* Creighton (9:00 ET): Creighton is off big 87-70 win over Georgetown (shot 53.1%) Sunday, which improved the Blue Jays' record to 22-5 SU on the season. Unfortunately, all five of those losses have come in Big East play and as a result they are still looking up at both Villanova and Butler in the conference standings. Four of the five losses have come over the last month and they are at Nova on Saturday. So, winning tonight is imperative. The Jays host a Providence team which has covered five in a row and eight of its last nine. The Friars are 11-3 ATS as underdogs this season. But this number looks too low to me and as a result, I'm laying the points. Creighton already beat Providence - by 14 - on the road earlier in the season. Though Providence has found success at the betting window, road games haven't gone all that well for them. They have the ignominious distinction of being the ONLY Big East team to lose to DePaul this season. They've won just one road game over the last month and that was by one point at Marquette. Having a full week to prepare here may seem like an advantage to some. But I sense the time off is a contributing factor to this line being so low. Remember last Wednesday's 75-63 win over Xavier isn't as impressive as it may seem considering the Musketeers were w/o their two top scorers. At home, the Friars were actually down at the half before pulling away late. In the first meeting, Creighton's efficient offense was on full display as they shot a blistering 56% from the field. This is one of the nation's top shooting teams, in fact, only UCLA is shooting at a better percentage for the year. They are better than 50% for the year in Big East play, which would be the highest percentage by a conference member since Syracuse in the late 1980's. The sharp shooting is nothing new as in the six years under HC Greg McDermott, the Blue Jays are top five in the nation in both overall and three-point shooting percentage. They're averaging 85.5 points per game this year. Providence, like G'town on Sunday, will have no answer defensively. 8* Creighton |
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02-22-17 | DePaul v. Georgetown -12 | Top | 67-65 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (7:00 ET): On the surface, DePaul has been competitive - at least by its woeful standards - the L2 games. Though they still lost by an average of 14.5 PPG, the Blue Demons managed to cover against both Villanova and DePaul. But the fact remains this team has just ONE win in Big East play this season (an upset of Providence back on January 10th) and is 0-11 SU away from home. They've been outscored by an average of 13 PPG by conference foes, which has to be a sweet sound for tonight's opponent, Georgetown. The Hoyas are still licking their wounds a bit after being taken behind the proverbial woodshed at Creighton Sunday. But this is a big drop in class for them and one they should handle w/ ease considering they've already beaten DePaul on the road this season. Lay the points. John Thompson III's bench might be a little shorter tonight w/ two reserves - Bradley Hayes & Tre Campbell - both listed as questionable due to foot and knee injuries, respectively. But it's no matter against this weak opponent that they've beaten six times over the L3 seasons. It's been more than 20 years since DePaul won here. About three weeks ago, the Hoyas won at DePaul. It was only by a three-point margin, but that sets us up well here w/ some good value. G'town was eight-point favorites for that first meeting, so w/ the switch in home court, it certainly appears to be some decent value. Again, DePaul has not won a single game away from home this year. They've been outscored - on average - by 14.8 PPG in those 11 contests. If you happened to have DePaul on Sunday, god bless you. A half court heave at the buzzer gave them the cover at Butler. The final score was 82-66 and DePaul was 17.5-point underdogs. They closed the game on an 11-0 run over the final two minutes after trailing by as many as 27. That was thanks to some sloppy play from Butler (turnovers!) and more free throw attempts than they should have been getting. It was a similar story earlier in the week vs. Villanova as the Demons trailed that game 39-18 at the half and again fell behind by as many as 27 in the second. This second road game in four days is the culmination of a brutal stretch for the worst team in the Big East as they just had to play the top three teams, all in a row. G'town had no answers for Creighton's efficient offense on Sunday, but this will be a far easier task, obviously. It should be noted that the Hoyas project to shoot much better tonight from 3-pt range than they did Sunday when they were a woeful 3 of 22. 10* Georgetown |
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02-22-17 | UCF v. Temple -3 | Top | 71-69 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
8* Temple (7:00 ET): Temple has lost B2B games as a favorite. Perhaps they were looking forward to this revenge spot against UCF, who beat them by 24 back on New Year's Eve in Orlando. The first of those two outright losses was pretty embarrassing as they fell to lowly East Carolina 78-64 as 6.5-pt chalk. How did that happen? Well, the Owls went ice cold in the second half as they went from a halftime lead (by 1) to a 17-point deficit pretty quickly. Sunday, here at home against UConn, it was a much tighter affair. Again, the Owls blew a halftime lead, this one was six points. They lost on a last second layup (just 2.9 seconds remaining). It was a game they led almost the whole way and by as many as 10 pts in the second half. I look for them to take out their frustrations on UCF tonight. Lay the short number. The loss to UConn was actually the second time this season that Temple lost a home game in the closing seconds. The other was against Tulsa back on 1.14. They are already guaranteed just their third losing record in conference play over the L34 seasons because of those two defeats. Injuries also have taken a toll, but here they may actually be the beneficiary of a key absence on the other side. UCF's fourth leading scorer Tanksley Efianayi is listed as questionable due to a knee injury. After missing last Tuesday's game vs. Tulsa entirely, Efianayi played only four minutes at ECU Sunday, a game the Golden Knights won by only three. That game required UCF closing on an 11-2 run just to pull out the SU victory. So they too very easily could have lost to the Pirates. When these teams met on New Year's Eve, Temple couldn't hit water from the boat. They finished at just 31.2% from the field including an ugly 5 of 25 from three-point range. Aside from a game against a very good SMU team, that is their lowest scoring effort against any American Conference opponent. They were also -20 in FT attempts, not that it mattered in a 77-53 loss. But this time around, it's UCF's shooting I'd be concerned with. The Knights average just 63.9 PPG away from home. They have lost the last five times they've been a road dog of three points or less, covering only once. Meanwhile, Temple is 18-6 ATS the L24 times it has been asked to lay three or less at home. 8* Temple |
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02-21-17 | Colorado State v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 68-56 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (10:00 ET): Colorado State visits the famed "Pit" in Albuquerque for a very important Mountain West matchup. The Rams are one of three teams currently tied atop the MWC at 10-4 SU in league play. New Mexico isn't far behind, just 1.5 games off the pace at 9-6 SU. But if they are to catch the top three, winning tonight is probably a neccessity. The homecourt edge may not be what it once was for the Lobos, but it is still strong as is evident by their 10-3 SU record at "The Pit" this season. They are only 3-7 ATS in those games, however, which reflects inflated lines based on their past strong history here at home. But the number is short tonight, probably due to the fact Colorado State is 9-1 ATS in "true" road games. I'm laying the points as the Lobos already beat CSU in Fort Collins earlier this season. When New Mexico arrived in Fort Collins for that earlier meeting, they were struggling. They'd lost three in a row. But they responded w/ an outright 84-71 win as four-point underdogs as they shot 55% from the floor. But that game was more notable for the fracas that took place afterwards between a UNM assistant CSU forward Emmanuel Omogbo. So clearly, emotions will be high for this rematch. But the problem from Colorado State's perspective is that there's turmoil from within right now as a report came out three days ago alleging their own HC (Larry Eustachy) berated and intimidated players, creating a "culture of abuse." There have been calls for Eustachy's job, something that is likely to create major distractions moving forward. The Rams have won and covered four straight entering tonight, but all of those wins came before the report on Eustachy was released. Normally, having a week off (as CSU has had here) would be a good thing. But this being the 1st time the Rams have taken the court since the report came out may work against them. They do host San Diego State on Saturday, so this may be a bit of a lookahead spot as well. Not so for New Mexico, who is off a loss at Fresno State Saturday. But that was just their third loss in the last nine games. Curiously, two of those losses were to bottom tier MWC teams, but the Lobos also hold road wins over three of the top teams in the league as well. They also average 78.4 PPG here at home. 10* New Mexico |
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02-21-17 | Northern Illinois v. Central Michigan -3.5 | Top | 89-66 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
8* Central Michigan (7:00 ET): The MAC West remains one of the most wide-open races in any conference in all of College Basketball. Currently, five of the six teams are separated by just two games. However, of late, it appears as if both Northern Illinois and Central Michigan are determined to play their respective ways out of the race. Northern Illinois has lost four straight, the last two at home and those were killers considering they came against Toledo and Ball State. Not to be outdone, Central Michigan has lost three in a row, the last two also coming at home. Playing one more time in Mt. Pleasant, I can't see the Chippewas losing another home game, thus I'll gladly lay the points in this revenge spot. You can always expect plenty of points when Central Michigan takes the court. Case in point; they've scored a total of 193 points the L2 games and lost both. Saturday was a painful overtime loss to Ball State, the current MAC West leader, by a score of 109-100. The Chips were a small 2.5-pt favorite for that game. They lost despite Marcus Keene scoring 40 pts for the sixth time in a game this season. He is the nation's leading scorer at 29.8 PPG and as a result CMU is third nationally in points per game at 89.9. They average 95.2 at home. Prior to losing to Buffalo and Ball State over the L7 days, the Chips were 10-1 SU on their home floor. I find it very difficult to believe that a Northern Illinois squad that's averaging only 64.2 PPG on the road can keep pace here. Back on January 7th, Northern Illinois did beat Central Michigan 87-83 in DeKalb. They did so despite making nine fewer three-pointers than the Chippewas, who also got to the FT line 44x. Shockingly, NIU controlled most of the game. Given the statistical profile, that almost seems impossible. At the time, that was the start of a four-game MAC win streak for the Huskies. But they're only 2-7 SU since w/ one of the wins coming by just a bucket. This is not a good shooting team - at all. They are just 38.7% from the field on the road, including 26.8% from three-point range. They've lost 16 of the past 19 visits to Mt. Pleasant and I can't see them winning this one either. 8* Central Michigan |
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02-21-17 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -6 | Top | 61-56 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
10* Toledo (7:00 ET): The MAC West is very wide open right now w/ every team besides Eastern Michigan separated by just two games. The two teams in question here are both tied at 7-7 SU in conference play, which is one game behind division leader Ball State. Northern Illinois, Central Michigan and Eastern Michigan have all been fading of late, so this is a very important game as both Toledo and Western Michigan will still get to host Ball State later this month. Toledo is the home team here as well and I love the set up from their perspective. Not only is it a revenge game (lost 90-74 in Kalamazoo last month), but WMU is just awful away from home. The Broncos are 1-13 SU when they're not the home team, which includes four neutral site losses than came by an average of more than 16 PPG. I say lay the number here. The aforementiond 90-74 loss to WMU stands as Toledo's worst conference loss of the season. Four of the other six have been by six points or less w/ three of those coming by four points or less. The Rockets were actually 4.5-pt favorites when they visited Kalamazoo, so by comparison, this line looks like a steal after factoring in the change in venue. Especially w/ how bad of a road team Western Michigan has been. Toledo comes into tonight having covered four straight w/ the only SU loss during that stretch coming at Akron. They beat Northern Illnois by eight, on the road, Saturday in overtime. However, while they may have needed an extra five minutes to put away the Huskies there, note that the Rockets actually led by as many as 15 in the second half. They shot 54.5% from the field for the game. In the first meeting between these teams, Western Michigan shot an insane 70% from the field, also matching that number from three-point range (7 of 10). I assure you that's not a misprint and also they will not be matching that performance here tonight. The Broncos' road woes are actually more attributable to the defensive end, however, as they give up over 80 PPG on better than 50 percent shooting. That's trouble against a Toledo side which is one of the better shooting teams in the entire country and is at 54% overall the L5 games. At home, the Rockets average 82.3 points per game. Toledo's only two home losses this year have come by a TOTAL of three points. I look for the Rockets to be the ones to keep pace tonight in the MAC West. 10* Toledo |
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02-20-17 | Texas v. West Virginia -16 | Top | 62-77 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (9:00 ET): Well, Bob Huggins team finally won an overtime game. They entered Saturday 0-3 in OT contests, which accounted for half of their losses this season. It took TWO OT's to dispatch of Texas Tech and while they failed to cover the spread (my ONLY NCAAB loss this weekend), they actually came pretty close, winning the game 83-74. (The closing line was -10). Some may attempt to make the case that this would be a bad spot to lay points w/ the Mountaineers given that they they are only two days removed from a marathon win. But, it's a big drop in class from Texas Tech to Texas and that isn't being properly accounted for by the linesmakers. When WVU went to Austin earlier this year, they were an 11.5-pt choice. Thus, it looks as if we have plenty of value for tonight's rematch when factoring in the change in venue. I have not attempted to hide my affinity for WVU this season. I think this is one of the top teams in the country and a squad that can make a LOT of noise come Tournament time. They are certainly better than their record. Even at #9 in the country (new poll comes out later today), I feel they are ranked too low. Remember last Monday, they had Kansas "dead to rites" - in Lawrence. At home this season, they are 14-2 SU and outscoring opponents by 24 points per game. It was not easy Saturday vs. Texas Tech, but they outrebounded the Red Raiders, forced 20 turnovers and were able to overcome the opponent shooting a blistering 58% from the field in regulation (held them to 13% in the two overtime periods). I will again mention how big turnovers are for this team; they lead the country in the number forced and differential. Texas is highly unlikely to shoot 58% from the floor in this game. Not just because WVU had held its three previous opponents all below 35%, but also due to the fact the Longhorns are a dreadful three-point shooting team. We're talking 30.3% overall from behind the arc (27.1% on the road) for the season. The Longhorns have not won a SINGLE game away from home this year (0-12 SU!) and in doing so, average only 63.8 points per game. They are 330th nationally in three-point shooting and 311th in foul shooting. They played surprisingly well in Austin against the Mountaineers, but that won't be the case here. 8* West Virginia |
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02-20-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Georgia Southern +3.5 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -108 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
10* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): The sadists that run the Sun Belt have done it again as all four road teams Monday are playing away from home for the second time in three days. The only one of the four being asked to lay points is TX-Arlington, who not coincidentally is also the only one of the four that won Saturday. The Mavericks should probably be considered the SBC's best team at this point, though by no means is that a definitive distinction. Tonight they face one of the two teams that's just one-half game off the lead, that being Ga Southern. TX-Arlington was a very fortunate winner Saturday at Georgia State, so they could easily be coming into this game - perhaps the biggest in the remainder of the SBC reg season - off a loss. I'll take the points w/ the home dog. TX-Arlington won Saturday by hitting a 35-foot shot w/ just two seconds left. The final score was 68-67 at Georgia State and as I said, they should feel very fortunate to have won that game. Not only because of the last second shot from Eric Neal, but also because - as a team - they shot just 35.5% from the field. Sure, we should probably expect that number to improve here. But, by how much? For the year, the Mavericks are shooting a woeful 30.8% from three-point range when away from home. All six of their losses have been "true" road games this year. Half of those have been as favorites vs. conference foes. Here they'll have to deal w/ an offense which averages a very impressive 85.5 PPG on its home floor. The result of that average is Georgia Southern is 10-1 SU in Statesboro. Georgia Southern also won a close one Saturday, beating Texas State 70-67. Though they did not hit their season average in points per game, they did shoot the ball well. I talked about the likelihood of TX Arlington shooting better tonight than they did in the last game. Well, similarly, we should probably expect an increase in point production from the home side as well. A big difference in the last games from these respective teams was game control. Aside from the final score, TX Arlington never led in the second half. Georgia Southern led Texas State the whole way, by as many as 17. The Bulldogs' lone home loss of the season came all the way back on Dec 4, by three, against Florida Gulf Coast. By the way, this is also Senior Night on campus as it's the final reg season home game for GSU (next three all on the road). Expect a very motivated team and a raucous crowd. 10* Georgia Southern |
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02-19-17 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -6 | Top | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (1:00 ET): Count me among the group that is not a strong believer in Maryland. Yes, the Terps are an impressive 22-4 SU overall, including 10-3 SU in Big 10 play. But they've had a tremendous amount of good fortune along the way, namely a 9-3 SU record in games decided by six points or less. The majority of those close wins came early in the season, thus we've already started to see some regression to the mean in this department, including a pair of losses to open February. They did just win at Northwestern (as 2.5-pt pups) on Wednesday, improving to an unfathomable 10-0-1 ATS as an underdog this year (10-1 straight up!). But this stands as their toughest test to date as they face one of the two teams in their league that I have rated as clearly better. I'll call for Maryland's incredible streak as an underdog to come to an end here. Lay the points. Wisconsin is currently tied w/ Maryland at 10-3 SU in Big 10 play, so the winner here will move into a first place tie w/ Purdue, who won Saturday. To me, Purdue and Wisconsin are the class of this league and there's a gap between them and the field. They are the only teams worthy of the Top 25 in the Big 10 in my estimation. However, the Badgers are coming into this big game a little wounded, both literally and figuratively. Literally in the sense that Bronson Koenig is still battling a lower leg strain that caused him to miss the Michigan game on Thursday. Figuratively in that the team has now dropped B2B games w/ a pair of sub-60 pt performances. They fell here in Madison (rare home loss!) to Northwestern last Sunday, then w/o Koenig fell at Michigan. Thursday marked the first time in his career Koenig missed a game. Reports are that he practiced Friday. His status is still listed as questionable for today. But regardless if he suits up or not here, I'm on the Badgers. Though a senior and an important cog on the team, Koenig is NOT Wisconsin's best player. They'd actually been winning despite some subpar individual performances from him prior to the injury sidelined him. The Michigan game was neck and neck w/o him throughout and that was on the road. This is the first time all season that the Badgers have dropped B2B games. I should point out that the N'western game marked their 1st and only home loss of the season. They are 13-1 SU at the Kohl Center, outscoring foes on average by 21.8 points per game! I'll bank on that defense that is holding foes to just 55.8 PPG here to "rule the day." After he scored a career-high 32 points in the last game, Maryland start Melo Trimble should come back down to Earth here. 10* Wisconsin |
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02-18-17 | USC v. UCLA -9.5 | Top | 70-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
10* UCLA (10:00 ET): While I admittedly have some concerns about UCLA (specifically, their poor defense) come NCAA Tournament time, I have far more concerns regarding their rival, USC. This may seem like a lot of points to lay in a rivalry game, but it's telling that USC remains unranked despite just five losses this season and playing in a Power 5 Conference. I actually do not consider them one of the top 50 teams in the country, let alone the top 25. Therefore, I've got no issue laying this number w/ a Bruins team that is among the best in the country offensively and well rested, playing its third straight home game. I should bring up that this is a revenge spot for UCLA. One of their three losses this season came on January 25th at USC, 84-76 as seven-point chalk. At that time, they were coming off a loss to Arizona, which remains the only time they've dropped a home game all year. They actually shot much better overall than the Trojans in the first meeting, but the difference was USC making 14 three-pointers compared to just six for the Bruins. That +24 margin from behind the arc is what enabled the Trojans to pull the upset. That was a season-high for them. UCLA also committed 17 turnovers (a season worst for them) and the 76 points still stands as the fewest they've scored in any Pac 12 game this season. This is a team that averages 91.9 points per game, which is the most in the country, and that average jumps to 94.6 PPG at home! This spread looks like a great value considering what UCLA was asked to lay in the first meeting, on the road. Their average margin of victory here at home is 20.1 PPG. Since losing to USC, they've won four straight, three of those by 16 points or more. The latest came Sunday vs. Oregon State, 78-60. Lonzo Ball again led the way in that one w/ 22 pts and nine assists. The Bruins were actually held to just 32 points in the first half, a season-low, but still won comfortably. Having not played since Sunday, they should be rested and ready for tonight. USC has been off since last Saturday when they lost at Oregon, 81-70. It's easy to see this team's 9-2 SU record away from home this season and think the points are a bargain, but the Trojans have been quite fortunate throughout the year. UCLA gets its revenge in a major way. 10* UCLA |
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02-18-17 | Colorado v. Oregon -11 | Top | 73-101 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
8* Oregon (3:00 ET): The seventh ranked Ducks have lost only two Pac 12 games all season. One was at UCLA last week, a game where they blew a double digit halftime lead. The other, also on the road, came against Colorado. They'll look to avenge that one this afternoon and with the national TV cameras present here in Eugene, I expect a highly motivated favorite. Oregon has been unbeatable here at home this season - literally - as in they're 16-0 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 21.1 points per game. This being the second road game in three days (dreaded spot for Pac 12 teams) does Colorado no favors here. Lay the points. Oregon was a 6.5-point favorite when they ventured into Boulder last month. While oddsmakers certainly have to account for the result of that game, it still appears (to me) that the Ducks are a bargain here at this price. As you probably know, the effect of home court advantage is quite drastic in college basketball. I already meNtioned Oregon's perfect home record. Well, Colorado is just 4-7 SU in "true" road games. One of those wins came Thursday at Oregon State, who is winless in conference play. I played against the Buffs in that game and it was tooth and nail most of the way. They even trailed at halftime. In my analysis, I called it a "sandwich spot" as CU was off a blowout win Sunday over Washington State (81-49) and had this higher profile game on deck. I think I was proven right. The first meeting between these teams marked Oregon's worst offensive effort to date in conference play. It also tied their lowest scoring game of the season. It's one of just three games they failed to score at least 70 points. Here in Eugene, they average 82.8 points per game. Aside from one bad half against UCLA, the Ducks have been pretty close to perfect the L4 games. They absolutely destroyed Arizona on this floor, 85-58, two weeks ago. Thursday, it was a 79-61 win over Utah. They shot 53.4% for the game and led by 16 at halftime. Oh by the way, it's not just this season that Oregon is dominating at home. They've won 41 STRAIGHT TIMES here, which is the nation's longest home win streak! The two teams they've beaten over the L7 days (USC, Utah) are both better than Colorado, a team that lost its first seven Pac 12 games. 8* Oregon |
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02-18-17 | Bowling Green v. Ohio -10.5 | Top | 75-95 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
8* Ohio (2:00 ET): One might make the argument here that Ohio is in store for a letdown after pulling B2B upsets on the road. But not I. Really, it's been pretty remarkable what the Bobcats have been able to do since losing leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year. I had them when they hosted MAC leader Akron two weeks ago. They won that game convincingly, 85-70, handing the Zips their first conference loss of the season. After that was a letdown here in Athens w/ OU losing (as nine-point chalk) to Central Michigan. But since then, they've won twice on the road - both times as dogs - beating Ball State and Eastern Michigan. Both wins were relatively close, but one that was not came back on January 28th when they destroyed today's opponent, Bowling Green, 96-72. That was w/o Campbell and as seven-point chalk. Thus, the Bobcats look like a bit of bargain here. Bowling Green, as you might surmise, is not a good team. They've lost both games over the past week, both by double digits. The latest came at Western Michigan by a score of 89-79. The Falcons were seven point underdogs in Kalamazoo, but even the oddsmakers can't help when you continue to play poor defense. BGSU has now allowed six of its last seven opponents to score at least 82 points while only one of the last six hasn't shot 51.9% from the floor or better. For the season, the team is allowing over 80 PPG away from home and that's a big reason they are just 2-9 SU in such games. Last Saturday, they allowed Buffalo (who is not a great team) to shoot 63.5% from the floor! If the Falcons shoot anywhere close to what they did in the first meeting w/ Ohio, then they are in major trouble yet again. In that first meeting, Ohio held BGSU to just 33.3% from the floor including 7 of 34 from three-point range. Consider that Ohio made only TWO free throws the entire game (went to the line just 7 times!) and still won by 24 on the road. Of course, it helped that they shot 53.5% from the floor including 18 of 35 from three-point range. Bowling Green's track record indicates that the Bobcats may be able to match those numbers here this afternoon. Again, that win came w/o Campbell in the lineup. Ohio is 5-1 ATS its last six times laying between 9.5 and 12 points in Athens, including a perfect 2-0 this season. This line should be higher. 8* Ohio |
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02-18-17 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -12 | Top | 74-83 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 53 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (2:00 ET): This matchup has many elements you look for in handicapping College Basketball. First off, WVU is going to be in an ornery mood in its return to Morgantown after blowing a huge lead late at Kansas Monday. They lost in overtime (still covered), a game they will certainly rue for some time. But I anticipate HC Bob Huggins channelling what happened in a positive direction. This is also a revenge spot for the Mountaineers, who lost by one down in Lubbock earlier this season. At home, WVU has destroyed opponents to the tune of a 25.0 PPG margin. For this afternoon's rematch, they are catching the Red Raiders right after an upset of Baylor on Monday. The revenge angle is strong here and I anticipate a blowout. Lay the points. With less than three minutes to go, West Virginia led Kansas by 14 points Monday. Again, that was in Lawrence. They held the Jayhawks to 34.4% shooting for the game. It is almost inexplicable that they ended up losing. Still, as disappointing a result as that may be, I still view this team as one of the very best in the country. Defensively, we all know about the press that forces opponents into turning the ball over at a high rate. But the Mountaineers have also held four of their last five opponents below 50% shooting including the last three all under 35%! Texas Tech has done a good job of not turning the ball over lately, but I question that ability in this environment. Their road record is just 1-6 SU and a big reason for that is their overall shooting numbers drop dramatically. The Red Raiders upset Baylor Monday thanks to some strong shooting (51%). But I don't see them being that sharp here having to deal with the West Virginia press. Remember that the 1st meeting went to overtime w/ the score tied 67-67 at the end of regulation. Again, while Texas Tech has been careful w/ the ball lately, they are facing a deep team that leads the country in turnovers forced and turnover margin. It will be a whole different animal facing the Mountaineers in Morgantown where as mentioned earlier, the home team is bludgeoning opponents, outscoring them on average 90.9 to 65.9. Also consider that three of West Virginia's losses this year have come in overtime. They are better than the overall record and still a top 5 team in my estimation. 10* West Virginia |
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02-18-17 | Northern Iowa v. Wichita State -15 | Top | 44-73 | Win | 100 | 4 h 4 m | Show |
8* Wichita State (12:00 ET): Northern Iowa got off to an uncharacteristically terrible start in Missouri Valley play, losing its first five conference games. Needless to say, the faithful are not used to seeing those kind of results. However, there has been somewhat of an incredible turnaround in Cedar Falls w/ the Panthers winning 9 of their last 10, the only loss coming on the road to second place Illinois State. UNI is seeking to become the 1st team in MVC history to start conference play 0-5 SU or worse and still finish above .500. They may very well achieve that, but this afternoon is a tall order as they visit the top team in the league, Wichita State. The Shockers have lost only one MVC game all year, also at Illinois State, and they are outscoring opponents by a whopping 18.8 PPG. Northern Iowa has been hot, but lay the points here. It's pretty ridiculous that Wichita State is not ranked in the Top 25. The Shockers are 24-4 SU overall and two of those losses, to Michigan State and Louisville, took place back in November. Last time I played them was the revenge spot against Illinois State and they destroyed the Redbirds 86-45 here at home. Since then, they've continued to roll, posting three more double digit victories. The latest came Wednesday at Southern Illinois where they won 87-68, covering the 13.5-pt spread. They shot 55.6% from the floor, which will be a difficult number to duplicate here, but then again the Shockers are one of the top shooting teams in the country and above 50% at home where they are destroying opponents by an average of 27.3 points per game. I just don't see how this team isn't considered among the 15 best in the country right now. When Northern Iowa opened conference play 0-5 SU, one of those losses came at the hands of Wichita State. It was an 80-66 loss as 10.5-pt home underdogs. Using that line and result as a baseline, the favorite sure looks undervalued here, don't they? I realize that the Panthers have seemingly turned their season around, but the majority of the wins have come at the expense of the bottom of the league, which is very weak. When facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG (WSU averaging 81.8), UNI is 0-9 ATS this season. A big reason for that record is that they are averaging only 63.3 PPG for the year and an ugly 59.8 PPG on the road. Incredibly, during Wichita State's current nine-game win streak, only one of the wins haven't been by at least 15 points! 8* Wichita State |
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02-17-17 | Canisius v. Rider +2.5 | Top | 85-77 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider's record (14-13 SU overall, 7-9 in MAAC) won't cause you to do cartwheels, but the Broncs most definitely have been competitive of late. Therefore, at home tonight, I anticipate them beating a Canisius team they already took care of on the road earlier in the year. Rider has covered three straight and in both SU losses, they lost the lead in the final two minutes. They led Fairfield on the road Monday night, but could not hold on as they went cold down the stretch. They still covered though, as four-point dogs, losing only 69-67. That came after an insane 112-107 win last Saturday over Quinnipiac here at home. No, there was no overtime. Also, last week saw the Broncs play Monmouth (MAAC's top team) tough, losing by only five. Take the points as I believe the home team will finish off a season sweep here. Canisius comes off an 89-83 home win over Iona where they were slight one-point favorites. They are now two games up on Rider in the conference standings. The game w/ Iona was tied in the late stages before the Golden Griffins closed on a 6-0 run. However, I remain concerned about this team's defense, or rather lack of it. Somehow they have managed to go 9-6 SU, 10-4-1 ATS on the road despite allowing an average 83.7 points per game! Each of their last five opponents - and seven of the last eight - have shot 50% or better from the field. Rider may be w/o assist leader Stevie Jordan, but they still have four other double digit scorers on the roster. Twice the Golden Griffins have been road chalk in MAAC play and both times they lost the game outright. Those were against bottom tier teams Niagara and Quinnipiac, both of whom are looking up at Rider in the MAAC standings. When Rider won at Canisius earlier in the year, they shot exactly 50% from the floor in a 72-66 upset as 6.5-pt dogs. Using that number as our baseline and factoring in the switch in home court advantage, you'd certainly think the Broncs would deserve to be a slight home favorite for the rematch, especially considering they won SU the first go around. Something to note is that they pulled that upset despite making only two three-pointers the entire game! They are now 4-1 SU/ATS the L5 meetings vs. Canisius and 16-3 SU the L19 times hosting them. Rider sees its scoring average jump all the way up to 80.4 PPG here at home, so I see another strong offensive showing tonight. 8* Rider |
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02-16-17 | Loyola Marymount v. St. Mary's -15.5 | Top | 48-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* St. Mary's (11:00 ET): Wrong place, wrong time for Loyola Marymount here. They are venturing into St. Mary's right after the Gaels lost for the just the second time in conference play. That loss did take place here at home, against rival Gonzaga on Saturday. The Gaels played the Zags tough, but ultimately came up short (by 10 points) on the scoreboard. Both WCC losses so far have come to Gonzaga. Otherwise, St. Mary's has taken care of business in conference play w/ 11 of its 12 wins coming by double digits. One of those came all the way back on December 29th as they beat Loyola Marymount on the road, 72-60 as 11.5-pt chalk. I suppose you could make the case that this is a big number to lay after suffering a disappointing loss, but SMC has had adequate time to get over what happened on Saturday. Lay the points. Loyola Marymount had the misfortune of playing Gonzaga two days before St. Mary's did. They lost by 30, at home. If you're going to make the case that the Lions might take advantage of a letdown here from the Gaels, then you probably would have also argued that they should have taken advantage of a lookahead spot last week. That clearly didn't happen. Loyola did win its next game, 66-60 over Portland on Saturday, but the Pilots are a very bad basketball team. I mean really bad. As in their last win was December 31st. St. Mary's beat them 74-33 here at home. Note Loyola is also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less their last game. Also troubling for the Lions is that they've shot worse than 40% from the field in three consecutive games. As I'm about to get into, St. Mary's can be a very staunch team defensively. There was a game two weeks ago where St. Mary's allowed just 27 points. Not in a half, but in a GAME. That was at San Diego on Feb 4. For the year, the team is giving up just 56.6 PPG, which is second best in the nation, trailing only Virginia. Besides Gonzaga, only one WCC team has been able to score 70 against the Gaels and that was Pacific, who hit it right on the nose. St. Mary's average margin of victory here at McKeon Pavillion is 15.8 points per game. Against a below average foe like Loyola Marymount, they should be able to top that. The only team besides Gonzaga that came in here and won this season was TX-Arlington. That was all the way back in the second game of the season. After a couple of bad shooting performances last week, the Gaels should rebound here against a team which allows its opponents to make 48.8% of its field goal attempts (38.6% from 3-pt range) on the road. 10* St. Mary's |
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02-16-17 | Colorado v. Oregon State +11 | Top | 60-52 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): There's no sugarcoating the fact that this has been an awful season up in Corvallis. Not only has Oregon State yet to win a single conference game (0-13 SU!), but they have been w/o their best player, Tres Tinkle (coach's son), ever since January 7th due to a wrist injury. The result has been them getting outscored by an average of 16.7 PPG by Pac 12 foes. Most of the games, as you can tell, have not been close. But one that was took place at the end of January at Colorado. There, the Beavers were able to stay within the generous 18-pt spot, losing only 85-78. The rematch is tonight and it seems as if the oddsmakers still haven't learned their lesson as, now on the road, CU is still laying too many points given that they are a below average Pac 12 team. Furthermore, this is hardly a great spot for the Buffs. They're in off a blowout win on Sunday and have a far "bigger" game on deck, at Oregon, later this week. Take the points. Oregon State actually has a history of playing Colorado tough, at least here in Corvallis. They've both won and covered the spread in five of the past six meetings here, including LY's 60-56 win as three-point favorites. There haven't been many Pac 12 wins since, but at least the Beavers can enter w/ some confidence knowing they've been able to at least hang w/ the Buffs recently. They were also able to hang w/ UCLA, at least most of the way, on Sunday. Taking on one of the league's top teams, OSU actually led late in the first half and held the Bruins to a season-low 32 1H pts. The 78-60 final is a bit misleading, although UCLA pulled away halfway through the second half. But still, OSU stayed within the number (+25.5) the whole game. Colorado dominated Washington State on Sunday, winning 81-49 as 12.5-pt home favorites. It was their second straight game scoring 81 pts on better than 50% shooting. But both of those games took place in Boulder. The Buffaloes have just one Pac 12 road win this season and it came at Stanford back on 2.2. They are 0-6 SU otherwise. One key reserve, Deleon Brown, may be out tonight as he sustained a concussion Sunday. CU is only 5-10 ATS this year when laying points. As mentioned above, they'll be at Oregon this weekend, a date that they players and coaching staff are probably pointing to alot more than this one. The Buffs are also 0-4 ATS this season after allowing 60 pts or less in the previous game. Coming off a blowout like that has inflated this line. 8* Oregon State |
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02-15-17 | Hawks v. Clippers -2.5 | Top | 84-99 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers are still w/o Chris Paul and facing a formidable schedule, but don't count this team out yet. They just concluded a grinding, five-game road trip w/ three consecutive wins, the last two both coming in the underdog role. The more impressive of those two came last time out as they beat Utah 88-72, a throwback defensive performance to the early portion of the season when they led the league in efficiency. Now they actually get to play a home game! Their only other time over the last 11 games that they got to play at Staples Center was unfortunately against the Warriors (on 2.2) and you get one guess as to how that went. Tonight, they host an Atlanta team I happen to feel is quite overrated. Lay the short number. The Hawks are now fourth in the Eastern Conference at 32-23 straight up. That SU record comes w/ a big caveat though as they've actually been outscored over the course of the year.This will be their third straight games out West. After losing by a single point at Sacramento, they topped Portland 109-104 as 2-pt dogs Monday night. Don't let that score fool you though as the game went to overtime and it was a bad shooting night for both teams. The Hawks shot only 38.6% from the floor, but were fortunate that Portland finished at 35.9%. One area that Atlanta was dominated was on the glass. Portland grabbed 78 rebounds for the game. That's a lot and the Blazers are hardly a great rebounding team. Atlanta was pretty fortunate to even make it to OT Monday as they needed a Paul Milsap buzzer beater at the end of regulation to get there. They also trailed by seven in the extra frame before closing them on 12-0 run. There's no Paul, but Blake Griffin is picking up the slack for the Clips by averaging 25.4 points, 9.8 rebounds and 6.8 assists the L5 games. While the team may not match its defensive performance from the last game, I expect improvement on the offensive end. They'd scored at least 100 pts in six straight games prior to Monday. Note that it was only three weeks ago that the Clippers went down to Atlanta and won outright as seven-point dogs. That was not only w/o Paul, but w/o Griffin as well. One player I expect to regress on the Atlanta side is Tim Hardaway Jr, who has scored in double figures 10 straight games. That's easily a career best stretch for him and should come to an end shortly. 8* LA Clippers |
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02-15-17 | Indiana +5.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 74-75 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
10* Indiana (9:00 ET): The Hoosiers are in a bad way right now. Some of that had to do w/ losing leading scorer James Blackmon. But Blackmon was back on the court Sunday when the team lost 75-63 to Michigan at Assembly Hall. It was their fifth loss in the last six games and the one win during that stretch was against Penn State and required three overtimes. So you would actually have to go all the way back to a January 21st home victory over Michigan State to find the last time this squad won a game in regulation. That sounds bad and I realize the road record isn't good (1-5 SU/ATS), but let us not forget this is a team that beat BOTH Kansas and North Carolina this year. Time to get back on track tonight. Take the points. Minnesota is one of a handful of Big 10 teams I believe to be highly overrated (Maryland and Northwestern are the others). The Gophers actually ended January on a five-game losing streak. While they've certainly turned things around here in February (won three in a row), the competition has been weaker. Saturday saw them go to last place Rutgers and prevail 72-63. The Scarlet Knights shot the ball terribly and didn't rebound as well as they normally do. That was the Gophers second straight Big 10 road win, but they've come at the expense of the bottom two teams. The other was 68-59 at Illinois back on Feb 4, another game where they benefited from poor opponent shooting (38.1%). In between, there was a VERY fortuitous cover here at home against Iowa. That game, which went to double overtime, actually saw the Gophers cover as seven-point favorites, 101-89. Minnesota is just 6-6 SU in league play and will have trouble containing this offense. Indiana comes in averaging over 80 PPG and is also a top 36 team nationally in rebounding. Lately, the offense has struggled, but that's had a lot to do w/ Blackmon. He's gone just 5 of 21 from the field in two games since returning to the lineup. That's gotta improve, right? With everyone starting to write off the Hoosiers, I feel now is the perfect opportunity to jump on board? I can see an outright upset here as these teams would be rated relatively even on a neutral floor. Even with the homecourt edge, Minnesota is favored by too much. 10* Indiana |
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02-15-17 | St. John's v. Butler -10.5 | Top | 86-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Butler (8:30 ET): St. John's has covered five straight games, the latest being a minor upset of Seton Hall (at home) on Saturday. Meanwhile, Butler is off an outright loss at Providence (were three-point favorites). That and the fact that the Johnnie's upset the Bulldogs in the first meeting of the year have created some much needed value on the favorite tonight. Consider that Butler was an eight-point favorite in NYC when they lost to the Red Storm, 76-73, back on December 29th. That game saw St. John's shoot 54% from the floor, their best mark to date in conference play and well above their season-long average of 43.8%. HC Chris Mullin has - somewhat shockingly - turned things around here, but his team is due to get blown out. Lay the points. Butler is considered to be a NCAA Tournament team right now, but losing at Providence Saturday certainly won't help their cause. The team is still ranked in the Top 25 mind you (#24), even though they've lost three of four. That was after an 18-3 start though that included an 11-0 SU mark at home. The Bulldogs have actually lost B2B home games - to Georgetown and Creighton - as they allowed both of those teams to shoot the lights out. But usually it's Butler that has no issue scoring here in Hinkle Fieldhouse. They average 79.8 PPG on 50.0% shooting here. I expect the team's leading scorer Kelan Martin (15.4 PPG) to have a bounce back effort tonight after totaling only 20 pts in the L3 games. Notable is the Bulldogs' 3-1 SU/ATS record this year off a Big East loss. St. John's had a full week off prior to winning Saturday. Their opponents (Seton Hall) were coming off a pair of overtime wins, so certainly it was an ideal spot for the Red Storm. Another key in winning that game was turnover margin. They forced 18 and converted those into 30 points. Meanwhile, they turned it over only eight times themselves. Maybe they've simply been undervalued, but the bottom line is that the only two times St. John's has been favored in league play this year came against last place DePaul. The market catches up with them tonight. 8* Butler |
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02-15-17 | 76ers v. Celtics -10 | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): Yes, there is no denying that Philadelphia is much improved this year. That's obvious by the fact they are 12-9 straight up since January 8th. They've also covered 16 of their last 22 games as well, including three consecutive upsets coming into tonight. They swept their way through the Southeast, beating Orlando, Miami and Charlotte, all games where they were an underdog. But let's keep a few things in perspective, okay? Most notably, even with all the improvement, this is still one of the five worst teams in basketball. They have also NEVER had a win streak of four games over the last three seasons. In fact, their only two three-game win streaks both came last month and in each instance, they failed to cover the next time out. Both of those were double-digit road losses, at Washington and at Atlanta. History repeats itself tonight. Boston has also won its last three games, two of them as road underdogs. Last time out, they finished off their Western Conference swing w/ a 111-98 win as 1.5-pt chalk at Dallas. This is a very hot team right now; their only loss in the last 11 games came at Sacramento (!) on Feb 8. Right now, the Celtics have a golden opportunity in front of them. They are #2 in the East, only 2.5 games back of Cleveland and the Cavs are now going to be w/o Kevin Love for the next six weeks. They can pick up as many as 1.5 games before the All-Star Break as they have not only this game, but Chicago tomorrow night. Meanwhile, Cleveland hosts Indiana in the second game of a back to back tonight. There will be a lot of chatter during the Break about whether or not Boston can overtake the defending World Champs. One thing is for certain and that's the Celtics have had no problem beating the 76ers the last few years. They've won all 10 matchups the L3 seasons, though they are 0-2 ATS against them this year. Both wins were by four points or less. But Philly will again be w/o the service of Joel Embiid tonight. The Celtics won at both Portland and Utah despite being down two starters and now have Jae Crowder back. Avery Bradley is still out, but that shouldn't matter as the 76ers allow over 108 PPG on the road. The Sixers also remain the least efficient offense in the league. Isaiah Thomas continues to lead the way for Boston w/ three straight 20+ pt games. He should have another big one here. 10* Boston |
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02-15-17 | Temple v. East Carolina +6 | Top | 64-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
8* East Carolina (7:00 ET): This is most definitely a tricky spot for the road favorite, Temple. Not only are the Owls playing the second of B2B road games, they pulled an upset in the first leg, beating Temple 74-62 as six-point dogs Sunday. It's a shorter turnaround compared to their opponent as East Carolina last played Saturday. Admittedly, ECU isn't exactly in the finest form right now (lost 9 of 11). But the Pirates are 10-4 SU at home where they hold their opponents to just 58.4 points per game. Furthermore, there's a little value on them for this rematch as in the 1st meeting w/ Temple, they were nine-point road underdogs. Yes, there had to be adjustment after losing the game 81-62, but the market has swung too far against ECU here. Take the points. Even after beating Memphis, Temple is still near the bottom of the American, just one place ahead of East Carolina. The Owls entered Sunday at just 4-8 SU in conference play, so I question how worthy they are of laying points on the road. This will be just the second time as road chalk this year in conf play. They pushed the 1st time, winning 79-71 at Tulane, who is worse than East Carolina. Sunday in Memphis, the Owls won due a strong close to the first half. They actually trailed 23-14 early before going on an 18-0 run over an 8:42 span. That run essentially decided the game. Like I said earlier though, this is not your typically strong Temple squad. They've been outscored by about four points per game in conference play and particularly concerning here is that they are 0-4 ATS off an conference win this year. East Carolina did not shoot the ball well in the first meeting with Temple (3 of 14 from three-point range). The Pirates aren't a great shooting team to begin with, so that's hardly a surprise. Still, we should see improvement at home tonight. But the real improvement should come on the defensive end. That's a really impressive number that they're holding visitors to here at home. Note they held Cincinnati to just 55 pts in their visit last month. The Pirates have covered five of the last seven games overall. A big key here is that leading scorer BJ Tyson, who has been out w/ a knee injury, could be back on the floor for the first time since Jan 11. He was in uniform (but did not play) for Saturday's disappointing road loss to USF (ECU were 2-pt favorites). ECU did beat Temple here in Greenville last season in a near identical price range. 8* East Carolina No ActionNo |
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02-15-17 | Fordham v. Rhode Island -14 | Top | 53-43 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
8* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): Fordham, like the team we played against yday (Marist), is not a good team. Thus I can't see why anyone would endorse them, even in this price range. The Rams may not be the worst team in the Atlantic 10 this year, but as per usual they're near the bottom of the league. Their only win over the L5 games was a double OT affair at St. Joe's. Tonight, they'll travel to Rhode Island to face another group of Rams, this one better and likely more angry. The Rhodies lost here at home their last time out, 75-74 to Dayton, a result which knocked them 2.5 games behind the conference leaders. The Rams are most certainly a "bubble team" right now in the eyes of the selection committee and really could use a blowout win in this spot. They'll get it. Any time a team loses by a single point at home, there's going to be a feeling of disappointment. But for Rhode Island last Friday, they REALLY had to be kicking themselves. They led a good Dayton team 73-69 w/ just 24 seconds left, but let it slip away despite holding the Flyers to 41.1% shooting for the game. That's a scenario where you HAVE to close. Two losses to the Flyers (by a combined five points) may ultimately sink URI's postseason hopes, but the bottom line is this team had won and covered four in a row prior to Friday's setback. Those four wins all came by a remarkably consistent 8 to 12 pt margin against the "middle class" of the A-10. This is a matchup w/ a bottom tier team that the should win by a larger margin. Friday was just the second home loss of the year for the Rams, who are outscoring visitors by 12.2 PPG to begin with this year. Fordham only averages 62.5 PPG on the road, so they'll have trouble keeping pace tonight. This will be their only meeting w/ Rhode Island this season, but the Rams should take it very seriously considering they actually lost at Fordham last year. But at home, URI won by 16. Both games saw Rhode Island shoot better than 50% from the floor. Given that scoring average, it should be no surprise that Fordham doesn't shoot the ball away from home. They're at 39.6% for the year. They also can't stop their opponents, particularly from three-point range. The fact they let home teams shoot 43.1% from behind the arc is really alarming. Rhode Island may just be 2-8 SU against the top 100 of the RPI, but they are 14-0 SU against everyone else. 8* Rhode Island |
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02-14-17 | Raptors -7 v. Bulls | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): I find it very odd that the Bulls are a perfect 9-0 - both straight up and against the spread - the past nine meetings with the Raptors. During this time, Toronto has been the better overall team, without question. Right now they may be slipping (lost 10 of 14), but I think a case can be made that Toronto is still a top two or three team in the East. (Their net efficiency rating is still the best!). Fortunately, Chicago is not playing well either of late as they've lost three straight, all in embarrassing fashion. Both teams are looking to atone for miserable performances Sunday as Toronto blew a double digit lead at home to Detroit. The price tag might seem high, but that's because the Bulls are going to be w/o both Dwyane Wade and Jimmy Butler again. Lay the points. Chicago just wrapped up a 2-4 SU road trip (all non-conference games) w/ three consecutive double digit losses. One was to Phoenix. The latest came Sunday at Minnesota and there we saw how dire things can get w/o Wade and Butler. By early in the second quarter, the Bulls were behind 45-19 and the game was basically decided. I see no reason to expect any kind of marked improvement tonight from a very short-handed squad. Paul Zipser and Nikola Mirotic are also likely out here. Many times, the first home game back after a long road trip is a really tough spot. While the Bulls are 5-0 SU/ATS off three consecutive losses this year, right now they just don't have the horses to compete. I said it many times earlier in the season, but I was surprised when things got off to seemingly a good start for this roster. I never viewed this as a playoff team. Toronto still doesn't have Patrick Patterson, but they are far healthier than Chicago. They also let a 16-point lead get away Sunday at home against the Pistons. That can't happen. I envision the team coming into this game highly motivated, especially after PG Kyle Lowry ripped their recent play. Offense is no issue for the Raptors as they are tied for second in the league in efficiency (w/ Houston), trailing only the obvious #1 (Golden State). The defense has been an issue, but as I said in Sunday's analysis, Chicago is not a good offensive team. I played the Under in the Bulls' loss to the T'wolves, which cashed. To rehash the facts, Chicago is the worst three-point shooting team in the league, both in terms of percentage and number made. That's including all the games that both Butler and Wade played in. Without that duo, plus two key reserves, they're going to have a REAL struggle to keep pace here. 10* Toronto |
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02-14-17 | Marist v. St. Peter's -12 | Top | 46-71 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
10* St. Peter's (7:30 ET): Marist is a very bad basketball team. They have just three conference wins this season, the last one coming all the way back on January 16th against Niagara. Since then, it's been seven straight MAAC losses, five of them by coming by double digits. One of those five was to tonight's opponent, St. Peter's, an 81-65 loss that took place at home. Tonight, they head to Jersey City as decided underdogs and I don't see this game going well for them. St. Peter's, playing a pretty road-heavy schedule of late, has covered six of its last seven games and were it not for an an abundance of close losses, they'd be right there w/ Monmouth, challenging for the MAAC regular season title. I see them "putting the boots" to the underdog in this one. Lay the points. Incredibly, five of St. Peter's six conference losses have been by three points or less. While five of their last six games overall have taken place on the road, ironically it was the one home game that that accounts for their lone ATS loss during that stretch. They fell at the buzzer, 72-70 to Canisius, as three-point favorites. That and a two-point home loss to Niagara last month really sting. The Peacocks have also recently lost by just a single point at Monmouth in overtime. That was after beating the MAAC leaders here at home, 71-61, earlier in the year. But let's talk about what the Peacocks do well, shall we? Last week, they went 2-0 SU/ATS on the road, crushing both Quinnipiac and Manhattan by a combined 48 points. Sunday in Manhattan, they shot 56% from the floor and never trailed. This is also a very good defensive team. They allow just 62.6 PPG, which is 14th best in the country. While SPU went 2-0 on the road last week, Marist was 0-2 at home. The Red Foxes lost by 20 to Fairfield and then by seven to Siena. Unlike tonight's opponent, they do not defend well. On the road, Marist gives up an alarming average of 80.1 points per game. They've also shot just 37.2% from the floor over the last five games. On the road, they are just 2-12. Here they'll have to contend with the fact that St. Peter's is 12-4 ATS in conference play and 6-1 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 60 pts or less. I think a decent case could be made that St. Peter's is a major darkhorse come conference tourney time. These teams are in completely different classes right now. 10* St. Peter's |
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02-14-17 | Ohio v. Eastern Michigan -1 | Top | 79-71 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
8* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Friday, Eastern Michigan failed to do what Ohio did the week prior. That's beat Akron at home. The Eagles fell for a fourth consecutive time as the Zips shot a blistering 52.9% from the floor. That 87-76 final was EMU's sixth loss in the last seven games and after leading the MAC East at one point, the Eagles are now just 13-12 SU on the season. Meanwhile, Ohio has had an interesting L4 games, alternating a pair of upsets w/ SU losses as a favorite. After being Akron two Saturdays ago, the Bobcats fell at home (as 9-pt favorites) to Central Michigan. They responded by pulling a minor upset at Ball State on Friday, 79-77 as 1.5-pt dogs. I just can't envision Eastern Michigan losing again here, especially considering they're at home, so I'll lay the very short number. Though I was on Ohio when they beat Akron (Zips' 1st MAC loss of the season), I warned that this was not the same team we saw at the start of the season. That's because they lost leading scorer Antonio Campbell for the year (knee injury) back on January 20th. Again, the team has alternated wins and losses in the six games w/o him, three times losing SU as a favorite. Another of their three remaining double digit scorers, Kenny Kaminski, was injured in the last game. However, he may still play here. But what Bobcats' backers need to be concerned about here is their team gives up 76.8 PPG on the road. Also, it was an awful shooting night the first time they faced EMU this season. In an ugly 53-49 loss, Ohio shot just 30% from the floor. That was at home w/ Campbell in the lineup, mind you. Another troubling sign is Ohio's propensity to blow big leads. Twice in the L4 games, they've lost a lead of at least 18 points. They actually blew all of a 25-pt lead Friday at Ball State before pulling out the two-point victory. Eastern Michigan also needs to be concerned about its defense. They've allowed two straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the floor and on Friday, Akron hit 18 three-pointers against them. Ohio can be a deadly three-point shooting team as well, but we've already see the Eagles put the clamps down on them once. What EMU need not worry about here is their offense, which averages 87.0 PPG here in Ypsilanti. Note Ohio actually led EMU 26-19 at the half in the 1st meeting, so that's another blown lead. Having lost four in a row, Eastern Michigan is a desperate team here. I see them picking up their first home win since 1.17 tonight. 8* Eastern Michigan |
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02-13-17 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -6 | Top | 61-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* LA Lafayette (8:00 ET): Maybe more than any other conference in America, the Sun Belt seems to take perverse enjoyment in making its members play two road games over the span of three days. (Note: The Pac 12 typically does this a lot too, only Thurs-Sat). Tonight, South Alabama is forced to do the deed after pulling out a three-point win at LA Monroe on Saturday. This will actually be the Jaguars' third consecutive road game, they won the 1st too (at Troy, 76-71, as six-point underdogs), so this is an attempt at a somewhat improbable sweep. Prior to the trip starting, the team was just 2-7 SU in "true" road games this year. They'll be visiting LA Lafayette, who just lost their fourth game in a row Saturday, at home, to Troy. Given situation and circumstance, I'll back the Ragin Cajuns here. Lay the points. LA Lafayette is just 4-8 SU in conference play, but the majority of losses have been close. Four have come by five points or less. Now they did just give up 100+ pts for a second time. Troy hit the century mark on the nose thanks to a career-high 31 pts from Jordan Varnado. The 100-88 final was a tad bit misleading in the sense that it was a six-point game in the final 30 seconds. (Troy made 12 of 14 FT's in the final 1:19). Defensive ineptitude aside, the Ragin Cajuns can score, especially here at home. They average 87.4 PPG here at the Cajundome, so it's actually pretty head-scratching that they've lost four times here. Prior to the loss to Troy, the team had lost B2B road games - both by four points or less. South Alabama has covered four in a row, their only loss during that time coming by just three points at Georgia State. So it would appear to the "naked eye" that these are two teams trending in opposite directions. However, considering that the Jaguars average only 69.8 PPG on the road, it's right to question just how they'll be able to keep pace here. The team's overall field goal percentage has also been up of late and is thus likely to start regressing back to the mean (42% for the year) sooner rather than later. Both recent road wins were close for USA; on Saturday they faced the last place team in the conference and won by only three. That snapped a seven-game losing streak to Monroe, so there could be a bit of a letdown here in what shapes up as a tough spot anyway. 8* LA Lafayette |
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02-13-17 | Magic +8 v. Heat | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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02-12-17 | Virginia -7 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
8* Virginia (6:30 ET): In past analysis, I have not hid my affection for HC Tony Bennett and his Virginia Cavaliers. The Hoos are off perhaps their finest win of the year here having downed Louisville 71-55 on Monday. That was in Charlottesville and a much needed performance after dropping two of their previous three (both losses by 4 pts or less). Here, they'll hit the road to face a team they recently destroyed in Charlottesville, that being Va Tech, who found itself on the wrong end of a 71-48 beatdown back on Feb 1. As a result, the number for tonight's rematch is obviously a bit inflated, but in my opinion it is still not high enough. The Hokies are simply nowhere near UVA's class and the Cavaliers will take this game seriously considering they lost LY's visit to Blacksburg. Lay the points. Virginia continues to lead the nation in points allowed, giving up just 54.0 per game. As mentioned earlier, they held Va Tech to only 48 in the first meeting. The Hokies shot a woeful 35.7% from the floor in that game (including 3 of 20 from 3-pt range!) in what ended up being the most lopsided margin of victory in this in-state rivalry over the last 25 years. Even with the scene shifting to Blacksburg, I can't really see much justification for Va Tech keeping this one close. The Hokies are 12-1 SU at Cassell Coliseum this season, averaging over 85 PPG, but Virginia has won 23 of its last 33 ACC road games. While 3-3 SU over its last six games, two of Va Tech's wins were by a single point. They lost again (at Miami) on Wednesday. Virginia has had an extra two days to prepare here, which should be considered an advantage they probably did not need. If there is one area that the Cavs do need work on it's limiting turnovers. They have given it away 29 times the L2 games after averaging just nine per game previously. Fortunately, Va Tech does not force many TO's. Again, Virginia is not bothered by playing on the road where they've gone 7-2 against the spread. On Monday, they looked as good as any team in the country (in the 2nd half at least), outscoring Louisville 39-21. Remember the Cardinals came into that game as hot as any team in the country. I believe Virginia is a top 5 team nationally and should be pretty close to that ranking after a win tonight. 8* Virginia |
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02-12-17 | Cincinnati v. SMU -4.5 | Top | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
10* SMU (4:00 ET): Cincinnati is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. The others are: Vermont (America East), Princeton (Ivy) and Gonzaga (WCC). However, a case could certainly be made that the Bearcats are NOT the clear-cut best team in the American. Today they'll face what will be their toughest conference game of the season, a trip to SMU. Not only are the Mustangs perfect at Moody Coliseum this season (8-1 ATS too!), they're 46-3 SU here the L3 seasons. They have also won seven straight, six of those by double digits, since losing the first meeting w/ Cincinnati by just two points. That 66-64 loss (as 4.5 pt dogs) on Jan 12 is the Mustangs ONLY loss dating back to November! Last Saturday, we saw three teams w/o a conference loss get priced as underdogs. All three lost, so I'll lay the points in this situation. SMU comes in averaging a very impressive 1.18 points per possession in conference play. That's quite the efficient offense there. At the same time, they also are giving up only 58.6 points per game, which is fewest in the country and third fewest in the country. They are led by Duke transfer Semi Ojeleye, who is one of only two players in the conference averaging both 17 pts and 5 rebounds per game. He dropped a career-high 30 points (also had 10 boards) in Thursday's 66-50 win over Temple. Scary is the fact the team didn't shoot particularly well (37.9 FG%) and still won comfortably, on the road no less. They completely dominated Temple on the glass, outrebounding them 49-32. They also outrebounded Cincy in the first meeting. The fact that SMU just cracked the Top 25 is a bit preposterous. I've had them safely ranked in my Top 20 for some time. Cincinnati was able to build a lead as big as 15 pts in that first meeting as they shot the ball much better than SMU, particularly from three-point range. But good luck w/ repeating that feat considering SMU outscores its visitors by 22 PPG at home. Both Bearcats losses this year took place out on the road. Granted the last one took place all the way back on Dec 10 at Butler. Like SMU, Cincy shot the ball poorly in its last game, yet still won by double digits. That should tell you right there that these are easily the two best teams in the American. But the key today will be the homecourt advantage plus the fact the Bearcats are just 1-5 ATS this season vs. teams allowing fewer than 64 PPG. 10* SMU |
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02-11-17 | Oklahoma v. Iowa State -9 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (6:00 ET): All the goodwill that came with last Saturday's upset of Kansas (in Lawrence!) was quickly swept away as Iowa State was upset by Texas on Tuesday. Given it was the second of back to back road games and what the Cyclones did against the Jayhawks, maybe such a result was inevitable. They came out of the gate ice cold, making only 2 of their first 17 shots from the floor. They were down 30-13 to start the game. They eventually fought back, tying the game in the final minute, but lost on a pair of free throws in the closing seconds. While the Cyclones have now dropped three of four overall, I like their chances of bouncing back tonight against an Oklahoma team that is not playing well. ISU is 6-1 ATS the L7 games in the series, including a five-point win in Norman earlier this year. OU was actually a two-point favorite in that first meeting, but that was before we knew how bad this season would be for the Sooners. They've now lost six in a row and are coming off a tough result Wednesday vs WVU as they scored only 50 points at home. That was a bitter pill to swallow considering they led for much of the first half. But their shooting never got on track (33% for the game) and they struggled badly against the Mountaineers' press. This is clearly the worst team in the Big 12 this year as they're just 2-9 SU in conference play. They've failed to top 70 pts in any of the L4 games and probably won't here considering ISU allows only 63.9 PPG at home. While the loss to Texas was disappointing, last Saturday's win at Kansas shows Iowa State can play w/ anyone. With the exception of a loss to Iowa, there hasn't been a single game this year they haven't been in. They lead the conference in transition points (20.5 per game) and PG Monte Morris is a player to keep an eye out for. His assist to turnover ratio (4.59) is currently on pace to be the best in league history and the best by any player in the country in the L20 years. I already mentioned how the Iowa defense performs at home, well, the offense is pretty good too. It averages 82.3 PPG, so it's an avg MOV of 18.4 PPG here in Ames. I think the Cyclones are a lot better than their given credit for; I'd certainly consider them "top 25 worthy" in fact. They'll show that here. 10* Iowa State |
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02-11-17 | Clippers v. Hornets -2.5 | Top | 107-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (5:05 ET): The Clippers are in the midst of a pretty tough stretch and the fact they are w/o their leader (Chris Paul) has made things all the more brutal. Going back to January 21st, they've had to play 9 of their last 10 games on the road. The lone home game was against Golden State. This will be their fourth straight game out East and the trip will finally end in Utah Monday. They are off a win, but that came at the expense of the dysfunctional Knicks. Prior to that, they'd dropped seven of nine and three straight. Meanwhile, injuries are also a legitimate reason to cite for Charlotte's current slide, although they are healthier now. Still they have just one win in the last nine games and it was a close one against Brooklyn. This is a game they NEED to win. Lay the points. Thursday night saw the Hornets fall here at home to the Rockets, 107-95 as 2.5-pt dogs. A poor third quarter (outscored 36-22) and turnovers (season-high 22) were to blame for that one. Houston is no stalwart defensively, so it was definitely disappointing to see Charlotte score only 95 points. They average more than 105 PPG for the year. But the team has not shot the ball well recently. That should change here facing a Clippers defense which has fallen off a cliff. Los Angeles now allows 109.6 PPG on the road this season and just gave up 115 to the Knicks. That was after allowing 118 against Toronto. Lost in the all the drama surrounding Carmelo Anthony and Charles Oakley Wednesday night is the fact the Clips actually trailed the Knicks by 10 points in the fourth quarter. Blake Griffin is starting to play well again after returning from his own injury, but w/o Paul this is clearly a much worse team. It took a unique set of circumstances to come back and beat the Knicks, which is pretty embarrassing. I look at a Hornets team that has covered only one of its last 10 games (last Saturday at Utah) and seen an opportunity to "buy low." 8* Charlotte |
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02-11-17 | Texas v. Oklahoma State -11.5 | Top | 71-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): Oklahoma State lost outright as a favorite its last game while Texas won straight up as a dog. That typically creates a situation where there's value on the home side and this afternoon in Stillwater is no different. Beating Iowa State (at home) and having a 6-1 ATS road record may look impressive. But note that the Longhorns are an ugly 0-10 SU outside of Austin this season! Oklahoma State, whose games typically don't lack for scoring, averages an impressive 93.5 PPG in Stillwater. So I'll call for the Pokes to bounce back from Wednesday's disappointing result where they scored only 69 pts here and lost to Baylor by three points. They were actually 1.5-pt chalk for that matchup, notable because Baylor has lost only two games all year. That should tell you right there about how the marketplace views the Cowboys. Lay the points here. The discrepancy between what Oklahoma State averages at home and Texas averages on the road is quite significant. The 'Horns average just 61.9 PPG on the road, so as you can see it will take quite the yeoman's effort on the defensive end to keep pace today. I'm not sure they have it in them. They did pull off an 82-79 win over OK State, in Austin, back on January 4th. That still stands as UT's highest scoring game - by a wide margin - in Big 12 play. They were down at the half, however, and were aided by an edge in FT attempts, an area where they typically do not convert. Note that wasn't a good spot for OSU as it was a "sandwich game" between West Virginia and Baylor. Tevin Mack had a career-high 27 pts for Texas, but is of course now out indefinitely due to a suspension. Given Mack's absence, it was pretty shocking to see the Horns upset Iowa State earlier in the week. Again, that game was shockingly decided at the FT line, which is not Texas' strong suit. Iowa State also shot the ball terribly early on. Perhaps that had something to do w/ the letdown spot they were in, coming off their own upset of Kansas. OSU had a five-game win streak snapped w/ the loss to Baylor. Again, the idea of a letdown spot was in play as the Cowboys were off an impressive upset of West Virginia, in Morgantown no less! Playing two top 10 teams in a row is a tough spot. This will be a clear drop in class. Texas won't shoot the ball as well as Baylor did Wednesday as the loss of Mack clearly should catch up w/ them. OSU did hold Baylor w/o a field goal over the final four minutes of the game, so they can play some defense too. 8* Oklahoma State |
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02-11-17 | Denver v. North Dakota State -4.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (3:00 ET): North Dakota State currently leads the Summit League, but two teams are within one game of them. They faced one of the two today, at home, as Denver comes calling. This will be a revenge spot for the Bison, who suffered one of their three league losses this year at Denver, nearly one month ago. They were embarrassed actually, losing 79-55 as a two-point favorite. Given what the spread was there and what it is now, it sure looks as if there's some substantial value on the favorite for this rematch. They are off a blowout of South Dakota State on Thursday, which thankfully snapped a two-game losing streak. Denver is off B2B wins, one a blowout of Oral Roberts (as an underdog) and then a close call at home vs. Ft. Wayne last Saturday. The fact that Denver has been off for a week may have influenced this line as well. But I'm highly skeptical of this team being able to replicate recent performances. Back on Jan 31, they shot a ridiculous 72 percent in the second half against Oral Roberts, which led to a 93-69 win as three-point dogs. The Pioneers are a good shooting team (50% in conf play!), but that's taking things to an unsustainable level. Sure enough, their next time out they declined to 41.7%, but still managed to beat Ft Wayne thanks to C.J. Bobbitt's buzzer beater in overtime, which gave the team a 76-73 win as 2.5-pt home favorites. While having only played twice in the past 11 days seems like a nice luxury, it could lead to some rust and certainly NDSU will not be lacking for motivation here. The Bison experienced a dreadful shooting night in the 1st meeting vs. Denver as they finished a lousy 31.7% from the floor (19 of 60!). That is easily their worst offensive showing of conference play. After losing as favorites to both IUPUI and South Dakota last week, NDSU bounced back by making over 51% of its shots in an 82-65 rout of South Dakota State on Wednesday. Note that the Bison have been a favorite in every Summit League game thus far. At home, their record is 9-2 SU and their scoring average jumps to 79.5 PPG. They have hit 80 pts in 7 of 10 Summit League games thus far. This is a pretty deep team w/ seven different players scoring at least 18 pts in one game this season. 10* North Dakota State |
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02-10-17 | Lakers v. Bucks -4.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I certainly am not averse to buying low on bad news. In this instance, the "bad news" for the Bucks is that for a second time in three years Jabari Parker has suffered a season-ending knee injury. Parker's permanent departure from the lineup comes at a time when Kris Middleton had finally rejoined it. Compounding matters is that Milwaukee is ice cold right now. After looking like a legit player in the Eastern Conference for much of the first half, they've dropped 11 of 13 - both SU and ATS. But help arrives tonight in the form of a visit from the lowly Lakers. Sure, Los Angeles has covered six of seven, but they just got blown out in Detroit and this will be the finale of a five-game Eastern trip. You have to wonder what they have left in the tank. Lay the points. Even w/o Parker, I believe this line should be close to double digits. Parker, who started at power forward, was second on the team in scoring. But Giannis Antekounmpo is still here and Middleton is now back. I think there's been a clear overreaction to the Parker injury by the marketplace. Even as the losses have started to pile up, the Bucks still sport a positive net efficiency rating. I used the phrase "buy low" in the first sentence of this analysis and it's something I say often. Milwaukee is not as bad as they've looked lately, particularly in the Heat game Wednesday. Strangely, that loss to Miami dropped them to 0-7 SU/ATS when playing with three or more days rest. They're .500 in all other games and have a positive point differential. This is a really low number to lay to the Lakers on the road. Luke Walton's team is just 6-24 SU on the road, giving up over 112 points per game. This is the worst team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. Walton has been trying out some different lineups of late, which while smart for the long-term, will also lead to short-term struggles. When priced as a road underdog (as they are here), the Lakers are being outscored by an awful 12.8 points per game. Milwaukee's scoring increases rather dramatically at home anyway, so even w/o Parker, I expect plenty of points from them tonight in what virtually shapes up as "must-win" for them. 10* Milwaukee |
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02-10-17 | Heat v. Nets +7 | 108-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): We have two teams trending in totally opposite directions here. Miami has, improbably, won 12 in a row and covered the spread in all 12 games. Brooklyn has lost 11 straight and is a hideous 1-22 SU its L23 games. The Nets' current 13-game home losing streak is the longest to ever begin a calendar year! But I'm going to buck the trends and back the underdog Friday night at the Barclays Center. Why would I do such a thing? Well, in addition to the simple laws of regression, the Nets have certainly been more competitive of late. They just took Washington to overtime Wednesday night, which made it B2B covers as their six losses have all been by single digits. Consider this number is nearly identical to what the Heat were asked to lay - in Miami - just 12 days ago! Take the points. Miami's current win streak may be the biggest shocker of the NBA season so far. It has more than doubled their total number of wins for the season as they were 11-30 SU before it began. Interestingly though, they have been favored in just four of the 12 games. While they've obviously covered all four spots, note over half of the wins during the streak have been by eight points or less. I'd still be leery of laying this many points w/ them, especially on the road. Sure they are 7-3 ATS as a favorite so far in 2016-17, but this will be only the third such time on the road and by far the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Even after factoring in the current win streak, Miami's road record is still only 10-17 SU and they're being outscored by 4.3 points per game. It's not like Brooklyn is great anywhere, but at least seven of their nine wins this year have come at home. The last one was January 2nd, but as I said earlier, they've been more competitive of late. This will be their third time facing Miami during the Heat's current win streak and both times the Nets have played them tough. The first meeting, which took place here in Brooklyn on 1.25 saw them blow an 18-point lead entering the fourth quarter. Five days later down in Miami was another close one as the Nets only lost by eight despite a massive discrepancy from behind the three-point line (outscored 33-12). I simply believe that both team's disparate streaks are due to end some time and why not simultaneously? A couple of weeks ago, it would have been considered insane to see Miami in this price range on the road. 8* Brooklyn |
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02-10-17 | Akron v. Eastern Michigan +1.5 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): On Saturday, I played against Akron and they promptly dropped their first MAC game of the season, 85-70 at Ohio. In my analysis for that game, I'd brought up how the Zips should be considered one of the luckiest teams in the entire country as they could boast six wins by five points or less. Well, you can now make that number SEVEN (wins by 5 pts or less) as they rebounded from the loss to OU by beating Ball State 65-63 on Tuesday. They were nine-point favorites though, so they failed to cover for a fourth consecutive game. Tonight finds the Zips playing at Eastern Michigan. EMU was leading the MAC West for much of the season, that was until this current three-game losing streak that they're on. But I have them bouncing back here in Ypsilanti. Akron does hold a 70-63 win over Eastern Michigan, back on January 20th. But remember they'd also beaten Ohio at home too. That loss by Eastern Michigan was what started the current slide as they've not only lost three straight, but also five of six overall. Two of those have come at home as favorites. They are still more than alive in the division, however, as all but one team in the MAC West is separated by just one game in the standings. Meanwhile, still w/ a sizable lead in the East, might we start to see some complacency set in w/ Akron? Note that the Zips' last three wins have all been by three points or less and by a total of six points. While they are a dominant home team (won 29 straight!), results on the road have been so-so as Akron is just 3-5 SU in "true" road games this year and 13-19 SU the L3 seasons. Eastern Michigan averages an impressive 88.0 PPG at home. Two Saturdays ago, they were a play for me as they went to Miami and recorded their 1st win in Oxford in over 20 years and did so in pretty dominant fashion. Since that time though, they've dropped three straight. In all three games, free throw shooting was an issue for the Eagles. Against both Kent State and Northern Illinois, they watched as opponents got to the charity stripe w/ tremendous regularity. Tuesday in Toledo saw them get to the line only EIGHT times themselves while the Rockets shot a blistering 53% for the game including 10 made three-pointers. But with an avg MOV of 19.5 PPG at home, I can't help but think EMU is a tremendous value, especially in such a desperation spot. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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02-09-17 | Louisiana Tech -5.5 v. UTEP | Top | 62-61 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (9:00 ET): La Tech is 16-8 SU overall and currently in second place in Conference USA. They trail Middle Tennessee by only two games. A one-point loss way back on January 7th to UTSA (were 16.5-pt favorites) still looms large. But I believe the Bulldogs can certainly still end up finishing in first place, although it will be tough considering they've already lost to MTSU. For this game, I feel they're drastically undervalued. Part of it is a four-game ATS losing streak. The other half of the equation is UTEP has pulled not one, not two, but THREE consecutive upsets. They were underdogs of seven points or more all three times. The latest saw the Miners beat Middle Tennessee at home Saturday, 57-54 as 11-point dogs. They can't do it again, can they? I'll lay the points. These two met back on January 5th and it was all La Tech in 20-point (64-44) win in Ruston. Neither team shot well (both below 40%), but a key difference was La Tech making 10 three-pointers while UTEP only made two. The Bulldogs offense was again on full display Saturday night w/ a 94-point effort Saturday against Marshall. Granted, the defense wasn't very good (gave up 90 pts), but I don't think UTEP is capable of that kind of point production. Even with the recent resurgence, UTEP has scored more than 66 points only twice in its last 10 games! Prior to winning six of their last seven, UTEP was just 2-13 SU on the year. So color me skeptical of them. Teams have not shot the ball well against the Miners recently as Middle Tennessee was actually the first in the L6 games to be above 40%. You have to tip your cap to UTEP for handing MTSU its first league loss of the year. But they actually trailed 27-16 at the half and didn't take their first lead until there were less than three minutes left in the game. It was a similar story last week against UAB as the Miners trailed that game 28-19 at halftime before rallying to win 63-59 as seven-point dogs. As impressive a run as this has been, eventually the Miners will revert back to the team we saw earlier in the year. 8* Louisiana Tech |
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02-09-17 | Rockets v. Hornets +4.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Both of these teams won as large favorites on Tuesday. However, while Houston covered, Charlotte did not. The Hornets at least snapped their long losing streak (seven games!) by beating Brooklyn 111-107. However, it should be pointed out that the Hornets held a 17-point halftime lead and controlled the game despite a pretty poor shooting performance. Houston, on the other hand, pulled away late from Orlando in a 128-104 win and cover. They too had a big halftime edge, but also had to outscore the lowly Magic 34-20 in the fourth quarter to grab the cash. Charlotte's recent struggles have had more to do w/ injuries than anything else and now they're healthier. Houston hasn't exactly been tearing it up at the betting window either. Take the points w/ the home dog. Even after losing seven in a row and falling to ninth place in the Eastern Conference, the Hornets still sport the East's fifth best point differential and net efficiency rating (those two things are tied together). The recent schedule hasn't been all that kind as they had to play the Warriors twice, not to mention the Wizards and Jazz, who are two of the hottest teams in the league. I mentioned they didn't shoot well Tuesday vs. Brooklyn. They finished the game at 39.2% including 7 of 26 from three-point range. They should shoot much better tonight. Houston is not known for its defense and gives up 110.8 PPG on the road. Cody Zeller might finally return to the lineup tonight, but regardless, seven Hornets scored in double figures vs. the Nets. This team is 16-10 SU at home this year and this will be just the FOURTH time they've gotten points here. Houston is only 4-4 SU its last eight games and an even worse 2-6 against the spread. Though they did defeat Charlotte 121-114 at home last month (led by 20 at half), I don't think they should be laying this many points on the road. While the Rockets have one of the league's best ATS road records (18-11), that's because they are 7-1 as dogs. I simply believe Charlotte is due to turn it around, both in the standings and at the pay window. They are a great value as a home dog in this spot. 10* Charlotte |
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02-09-17 | Rice v. Florida International +6.5 | Top | 89-78 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
10* Florida International (7:00 ET): According to KenPom, FIU has been one of the unluckiest teams in the entire country. That's confirmed by six losses by five points or less while they have no such victories. Of course, the Panthers have won only five games all season and just one of their last 10! They are coming off a 15-point loss at Charlotte Saturday, which dropped them to 0-10 SU in "true" road games. But here at home, they've been far more competitve (outscoring opponents!) and I like the spot hosting a Rice team that will be laying points for a second straight road game. The favored Owls did cover Saturday as they won 95-80 (sound familiar), but that was against North Texas, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country! Take the points. As you might guess, FIU shoots the ball a lot better at home. They are at 48.9% overall from the field including 38.1% from three-point range. Then again, offense certainly wasn't the issue Saturday against Charlotte, who shot a blistering 59.6% from the field against the Panthers. Expect the defense to be better tonight simply because it can't be any worse than it was there. Now Rice is a top 25 offense in terms of points per game, but they've also been able to take advantage of what has been a really weak recent schedule. You would not expect a team like Rice to be 3-0 SU as road favorites, but they are. However, covering in that spot twice in a row is unfamiliar territory. Rice's defense also gets significantly worse away from home. They allow opponents to shoot 46.7% from the field in road games. Curiously, the Owls are 0-9 ATS their L9 Thursday games. The last one, they lost to Old Dominion, outright, as 4-point favorites. Something else that should be noted here is Rice had been off for a full week heading into the North Texas game. This week, they play not only here at FIU, but at FAU on Saturday. The home team has won each of the last two meetings between these schools. Look for this one to be closer than expected w/ an outright upset a distinct possibility. 10* Florida International |
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02-08-17 | Cavs -2.5 v. Pacers | Top | 132-117 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For a second straight game, the defending NBA Champs will pay visit to a red-hot team. Monday saw them go to D.C. to take on a Wizards team that had won 17 straight at home and 11 of 12 overall. It took overtime - and a miraculous shot by LeBron James at the end of regulation - but the Cavs did emerge victorious by a score of 140-135. Now they take on an Indiana team has won seven straight games. While it may seem like a tough spot for LeBron and company, I think all the chatter about "what's wrong" with this team has galvanized them and we're about to see them go on a bit of a run. I'm actually disregarding my own numbers on this one as I feel the Cavs' net efficiency is a bit misleading due to James missing a few games. One of those was against Indiana on November 16th. Cleveland gets revenge here. Lay the points. Indiana is actually 8-1 ATS its last nine games vs. Cleveland, but they've benefited from James sitting out multiple times during that streak. Back in November, it was a 103-93 win here at home over the Cavs. Incredibly, that was the fourth time in the past two years that the Pacers got to play Cleveland at home with James resting. But let's be clear, LeBron is playing tonight and coming off an outstanding performance against the Wizards where he went for 32 points and 17 assists. Something to keep in mind is that James fouled out in overtime and the Cavs still won, thanks to Kyrie Irving scoring 11 of his 23 points in overtime. Kevin Love, the subject of trade rumors, scored 39 points and had 12 rebounds. Love might very well be in store for another big game tonight as he went for 27-16 in that November meeting. Indiana could be w/o Thaddeus Young here, which would make defending Love all the more difficult. Indiana's defense has been a lot better of late with them holding four straight opponents below 100 ptsa and three of them to 90 or less. But none of those teams were Cleveland, who ranks fifth in the league in offensive efficiency and makes 39% of its three-point attempts. In fact, the Pacers' last four opponents all rank in the bottom third of the league in offensive efficiency and yes that includes Oklahoma City. While the Pacers have been tough at home all season, I view this as another statement game for Cleveland, who has quietly covered its last three games. 10* Cleveland |
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02-08-17 | South Florida v. Connecticut -13 | Top | 51-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Like Xavier-DePaul, this is another game where the home team should roll. UConn is looking to bounce back from an 82-68 loss at Cincinnati (the top team in the American) on Saturday and has the perfect opponent to do just that. South Florida has yet to win a game in conference play and I don't see them starting tonight. UConn already beat USF once this year, by 21 down in Tampa, and were 7.5-point favorites when they did so. Using that number as our baseline, it would seem as if tonight's line should be several points higher. Lay the points. I will concede right off the bat that this is not your typical strong UConn team. Barring some miraculous late season run or winning the AAC Tournament, they will not even make the field of 68. They trailed the whole way Saturday against Cincinnati, but again that's a very good team they were facing. Because of injuries, they've been down to as few as six scholarship players at times this year, but it appears as if both Juwan Durham and Steven Enonch will be back tonight from their respective foot injuries. Prior to losing to Cincy, the Huskies were on a season-best three-game win streak. They've won four in a row here at home. I suspect we'll see a lot better defense from Kevin Ollie's team tonight after they gave up 82 points to Cincinnati. That was the most allowed in any conference game this season. Also helping the UConn defense in this one is the fact South Florida comes in averaging only 62.4 PPG in conference play. They have lost all 11 American games by an average of 16.4 points. Their last win came all the way back on 12.22 vs. Delaware. They only time they won a road game this year came back on 12.1 at Troy. What's real concerning here for the Bulls is they just shot better than 50% in B2B games and still lost - comfortably - both times. I would expect a sharp decline in the team's overall shooting tonight as UConn holds its visitors to just 61.2 PPG at home. Don't be too fooled by the final score from Saturday (83-74) as the Bulls actually trailed Temple by 23 at the half and only shortened the margin once the game was well in hand. The first time these teams met, USF allowed UConn to make 12 three-pointers. 8* Connecticut |
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02-08-17 | South Dakota v. IUPU Ft Wayne -6.5 | Top | 93-82 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
8* IPFW (7:00 ET): Among schools whose games were regularly lined, Fort Wayne was the top ATS team in the country last year at 21-8 (72.4%). Despite the predictable regression in that department this year (they're just 7-11 ATS) and the fact they are just 5-5 SU in conference play, I still view this as the best team in the Summit League. One thing is for sure and that's the Mastadons take care of business at home where they are 11-1 SU and averaging a whopping 95.9 PPG. Tonight, they look to rebound from a tough road loss at Denver as they host South Dakota in what is a revenge spot. I look for the Mastadons to win big in this one. Lay the points. IPFW lost to Denver at the buzzer - in overtime - on Saturday. It was their fourth loss in the last six games, a far cry from last season when they lost only four conference games all season and were the top seed entering the Summit League Tournament (were upset in the semfinals). But again, I feel that the homecourt edge tonight will be the difference maker. The Mastadons have not only covered 19 of their last 27 games played on this floor, but they've topped 100 pts in three of the last four home games! It's been a road-heavy schedule that's contributed to the downturn of late. This will be just the second home game for the Mastadons in the last month. The first saw them beat rival IUPUI by 30 on January 25th. South Dakota pulled an upset over IPFW at home on January 14th. It was an ugly 66-63 game where neither side shot well. Unfortunately for the Coyotes, they won't be able to count on Ft. Wayne shooting that poorly again. Especially considering they give up 78.7 PPG away from home to begin with. South Dakota pulled an upset Saturday, beating the first place team in the Summit (North Dakota State), 76-66 as six-point underdogs. But this will now be their third consecutive road game. They've shot above 50% from the floor in the first two, but I do not see that trend continuing this evening. Note IPFW is a strong 9-1 ATS the L3 seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* IPFW |
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02-08-17 | DePaul v. Xavier -15.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
8* Xavier (6:30 ET): The Musketeers just upset Creighton, 82-80 as five-point dogs on Saturday, and did so w/o the services of Edmond Sumner. Sumner (knee) was lost for the year in late January and remember that Myles Davis has also left the team. So there's plenty of attrition going on here, but it didn't stop the team from recording its first win over an RPI Top 25 opponent on Saturday. If the Musketeers were able to down a team like Creighton, then certainly they should have little difficulty here against Big East lightweight DePaul, right? The Blue Demons enter this contest having lost all but one league game and they are 0-9 SU on the road as well. Let's continue to take advantage of Xavier still being undervalued in the wake of some personnel looses. Lay the points. How did Xavier upset Creighton? Well, let's start by pointing out that they shot better than 50 percent from the field and got really hot late. Five three-pointers were the key during a 19-7 second half run which essentially decided the game. It also helped that Creighton missed free throws. Now starting in place of Sumner, Quentin Goodin scored 15 points. It was the Musketeers third straight win, so they've yet to lose since the Sumner injury. All three wins have been close, but tonight marks - by far - their easiest league game of the season. Xavier is 11-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 14.8 points per game. They've beaten DePaul by double digits three straight times, including twice last season. They are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season as home favorites of 12.5 or more points. Saying DePaul is "not good" would be putting it mildly. Their only Big East win of the season came by a single point, at home, vs. Providence. True road games have been a complete disaster as they've lost all six (also 0-3 at neutral sites) by an average margin of 17.1 points per game. They come into tonight off a 13-point loss to Marquette, at home. They gave up 92 points there and that's not a good sign when you only average 62.0 per game on the road. Incredibly, the Blue Demons are shooting just 35.7% from the field this season when away from home. That includes an atrocious 24.9% from three-point range! At the same time, they allow opponents to make 48.7% of their FG attempts and 38.2% from three-point range when they are the road team. This should be a blowout. 8* Xavier |
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02-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan -3.5 | Top | 57-86 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* Michigan (9:00 ET): When these teams met nine days ago in East Lansing, Michigan State was a desperate team. They entered the game on a three-game losing streak. However, they were able to defeat the rival Wolverines 70-62 as slight three-point favorites even though the sharper dollars appeared to be on the other side. Now it's Michigan that's desperate. They lost here in Ann Arbor to Ohio State over the weekend, 70-66 as four-point chalk, dropping them to just 4-6 straight up in Big 10 play. However, I don't see them dropping B2B home games. After all, they are 12-3 SU this year in Ann Arbor, holding opponents to just 62.0 points per game. Therefore, I'll lay the short number. Michigan State was a play for me last Thursday as they went to Nebraska and won 72-61 as a short road favorite. So it's now B2B wins for Sparty and they were off this weekend. But this team simply isn't as strong an outfit as we're used to seeing under HC Tom Izzo. Thursday marked just their second "true" road win of the year and when they're not a home favorite, the team's record is just 5-8 SU this season. They did shoot a blistering 63 percent from the field in the second half against Nebraska, but that's unlikely to be matched here due to the Michigan defense not to mention the simple laws of regression. They also made 11 of 17 three-point field goals in that game, which is well above their norm. Michigan is better at home primarily because the defensive numbers improve so much, but they also shoot the ball slightly better. They did not shoot the ball well at all in the first meeting w/ MSU, finishing that game at just 33.9% from the field including 7 of 26 from three-point range. Note that prior to suffering that loss in East Lansing, the Wolverines had just blown out Indiana by 30 (here at home) the game previous. While MSU is considered "safely" in the field of 68 (NCAA Tournament) right now, Michigan is right on the bubble. They BADLY need to win this game and I think they will as the hot shooting we're used to seeing from John Beilein teams should return. They were only 37.3% from the field against Ohio State Saturday, which was pretty shocking. 10* Michigan |
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02-07-17 | Canucks +1.5 v. Predators | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -170 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Vancouver (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Canucks +1.5. I just played against Vancouver Saturday. It was an easy 6-3 win for me (and Minnesota). It was the Canucks' third straight loss, the last two coming since the All-Star Break. They've been outscored 13-4 during that time. As ugly as that sounds, getting an additional 1.5 from the oddsmakers here is a solid value against a mediocre outfit like Nashville. Sure enough, these two faced off twice in January and both times the game was decided by one goal. Only four goals total were scored in the two games combined. The Predators are off a shutout loss, 1-0 at home to Detroit on Saturday, which is hardly inspiring. Vancouver does no worse than a one-goal loss here. While in third place in the Central Division, it's a distant third for the Preds. It's also a precarious one-point lead they have over the Blues, who won last night. I will concede that despite losing 1-0 to the Red Wings on Saturday, the Preds somewhat dominated. They finished w/ a 42-19 edge in shots. Recently, the team has done well in getting the puck on net. It was the third time in the last five games w/ at least 39 shots. But it also marked the first time in five games they didn't give up at least 30. The team has also played its fair share of one goal games recently. To be exact, they've been involved in 11 since the New Year. That's out of a possible 16 games. They've played 22 one-goal games overall this season. Vancouver's road record, third worst in the league at 6-15-3, certainly won't inspire much confidence. But again, that's where the puck line comes in. Four of their last six road games have been decided by one goal. Overall, the Canucks have played even more one goal games than the Preds (25 total). Also note that Nashville has dropped three straight games to teams w/ losing records. Can a desperate Vancouver team at least end up tied at the end of regulation here? I think they can. Not only that, they could very well pull the outright upset. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) |
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02-07-17 | Nets v. Hornets -10.5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -106 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Neither of these teams have been playing well of late. The Hornets have lost seven in a row to fall out of the top eight in the Eastern Conference. I did cash them plus the points Saturday, however, as they lost by only seven at Utah. On the bright side, that marked the first time they covered a game during this losing streak. Of course, that's nothing compared to what Brooklyn has gone through this season. The Nets have just ONE win since X-Mas and have lost their last nine games. While they've been somewhat competitive in the last four (all decided by single digits), the fact is this team has just two road wins all year and isn't going to win tonight. Charlotte is better than its record shows. As I mentioned in Saturday's analysis, they have the fifth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. Lay the points. While I believe the Hornets are better than their 23-28 SU record, they have actually struggled against the Nets this year. They're 0-3 ATS against them so far this season, including an outright loss (in Brooklyn) back in December. When they hosted the Nets last month, they were favored by 12 and won by only seven. That game saw Brooklyn make 17 three-pointers, which is atypical. The Hornets haven't won since, but have had to play Golden State twice, not to mention a couple of red-hot teams in Washington and Utah. Saturday night in Utah saw them enter the fourth quarter w/ a nine-point lead only to get outscored 32-16 over the final 12 minutes. It should be pointed out that leading scorer Kemba Walker was sick going into that game, but is now reportedly feeling better. No matter what way you slice it, Brooklyn is the worst team in the league. They have lost 20 of 21 games since beating Charlotte at home on 12.26. On the road, they give up an average of 117.5 PPG. What's really scary if you're a Nets fan (besides still being a Nets fan) is that the team has actually played better defense of late and is still losing. It's last three games, opponents have shot only 41.6 percent against them. Over the L5 games, they're giving up an average of "only" 107.4 PPG. Given they are last in the league defensively, I expect this to lead to Charlotte having its best offensive output in some time tonight. The price is high here and I know Charlotte hasn't been good of late. But if there's any recipe for a turnaround, it's a visit from Brooklyn. I like the addition of Miles Plumlee to the roster as well. 8* Charlotte |
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02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves | Top | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): Pun intended, but the Heat are red hot right now. They arrive in the Twin Cities riding a 10-game win streak where they are also 10-0 ATS. For much of the year, in my weekly power rankings column, I made the case that this team was better than its record. But in saying that, I never would have expected this! Speaking of "better than it's record," the T'wolves are a team that should have a lot more wins. They've lost three in a row to drop to 19-32 SU on the year, but interestingly have the Western Conference's eighth best per game point differential and net efficiency rating. In addition to the three-game losing streak, mor bad news came down over the weekend when it was announced Zach LaVine was done for the year w/ an ACL injury. Still though, I believe they have enought - at home - to snap Miami's stunning win streak. Though LaVine is one of three under-22 (year old) players on the T'wolves roster to be averaging at least 18.9 PPG and started 47 of 50 games this year, his absence may not have quite the severe impact you think. Before losing to Memphis on Saturday, the team had gone 3-0 SU/ATS w/ LaVine out of the lineup, all three wins coming by double digits. LaVine isn't a great defender and strangely PG Ricky Rubio seems to shoot a lot better when he's not on the floor. Karl Anthony Towns (double-double in 30 of last 32 games) and Andrew Wiggins are still the team's two best players. Something else to consider is that the T'wolves are 7-1 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive SU losses. They actually led Memphis by 16 after one quarter on Saturday, but it ended up being yet another game where the T'wolves blew a double digit lead (I've lost count how many times they've done that this season). Something else to consider is Minnesota is 3-7 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That record is bound to improve. Speaking of improvement, it's safe to say no one saw Miami coming. Prior to this 10-game win streak, they'd actually lost 10 of 11 and were 11-30 SU overall. Though they do have wins over both Houston and Golden State during the streak, it's largely been an easy and home-heavy schedule, which in part explains the surge. Playing Brooklyn twice and Philadelphia over the L6 games definitely helps. Offensive production has been way up of late, but they still ranks 26th in the league in efficiency. We should start to see regression there. Also, the Heat are only 8-17 SU on the road this year, averaging just 96.7 points per game. 8* Minnesota |
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02-06-17 | Monmouth v. Rider +8 | Top | 74-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Rider (7:00 ET): This is a revenge spot for MAAC-leader Monmouth. But because of that, the spread is inflated. The Hawks haven't fared too well on the conference road thus far, going 1-3 ATS w/ the one cover being a four-point win at Canisius. Of course, they also didn't fare well the first matchup vs. Rider (back on New Year's Eve) when they lost 93-90 as 14-pt home favorites. That was an overtime game that saw Monmouth fall behind by 13 at the half. They would go on to lose their next game as well (at St. Peter's), but have since won nine in a row. Still though, this line is clearly inflated if you use the number from the first meeting as our baseline. Rider certainly won't be lacking for motivation here either as they lost by 21 to Iona on Friday. Take the points here. Elsewhere on Friday, Monmouth avenged its only other MAAC loss from this season. They faced St. Peter's in a situation similar to this, only at home and the number certainly appeared to be more advantageous from their perspective. I took the bait and was let down as the Hawks only prevailed 71-70 (were -8.5) and needed OT to do so. While they initially raced out to 14-2, Monmouth struggled from that point forward, letting St. Peter's tie the game by halftime. They even faced an eight-point deficit w/ just over six minutes remaining. While this is the Hawks' second nine-game win streak of the season, note the program has NEVER won 10 consecutive games. The first time these teams matched up, Rider definitely benefited from catching Monmouth at the right time. The Hawks were off a high-profile game vs. North Carolina where they were blown out 102-74 and thus more ripe to be upset. Rider pulled off the SU dog win by outscoring the Hawks 41-28 in the first half and holding them to 38.9% shooting for the game. For tonight's rematch, another break may have already gone Rider's way as Monmouth's second leading scorer Micah Seaborn (15.4 PPG) injured his knee on Friday and may not play here. Though they average plenty of points, Monmouth is hardly a great shooting team (42.9%). Rider was on the wrong side of a pretty massive shooting discrepancy Friday vs. Iona, but the Broncs are also a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts last game. I'd be a bit surprised if Rider pulled out another SU dog win at Monmouth's expense here, but the number is generous. 10* Rider |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 149 h 58 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (6:30 ET): For once, we have actually have the two best teams in the league in the Super Bowl. Both the Patriots and Falcons have rolled in getting here, producing the league's two biggest scoring differentials in the regular season and then a pair of playoff routs. New England is an incredible 15-3 ATS and has lost only one time since Tom Brady returned to the lineup in Week 5. They essentially drew a "double bye" into the AFC Championship Game as not only were they off for the Wild Card Round, but Houston was simply no match in the Divisional Round. Then, in the AFC Championship Game, they do what they always do - and that's blowout Pittsburgh. Atlanta, whose offense leads the league at 34.4 PPG, blew through both Seattle and Green Bay w/ incredible ease in the NFC side of the draw. They beat those two foes by a combined 39 points, scoring almost at will. While I agree the Falcons should be underdogs here, I believe getting a full field goal w/ this offense is too good to pass up. I'll take the points. I was on Atlanta in both playoff wins, so perhaps I'm a bit biased. But, man, they sure did make it look easy against two top tier opponents. Granted, Seattle was w/o Earl Thomas, but Matt Ryan & company shredded what has long considered to be one of the top defenses in the league. In the NFC Championship Game, Green Bay came in as hot as any team in the league. The Falcons destroyed them in a game that was never really close. Two plays into the second half, they'd scored 31 points and from there, pretty much coasted. If anything, their 493 total yds gained UNDERSELLS the job they did. This is an offense that averaged 6.7 yards per play during the regular season w/ the highest number of 20+ yd plays as well. Also, the Falcons' YPP differential of +1.1 was by far and away the best in the league. It was a half yard better than the #2 team in that category. While that may not sound like much, that gap was larger than the #2 and #12 team. New England's defense comes in ranked #1 in the league in scoring, but they have faced nothing like Ryan this season. In fact, they have faced one of the weakest slates of QB's I have seen in some time. Prior to facing Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC Championship Game, these were the last eight QB's they'd faced: Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Fitzpatrick (twice), Jared Goff, Joe Flacco, Trevor Siemian and Matt Moore. While the Pats offense is no "chopped liver," they are not as prolific as Atlanta and I look for the Falcons to bring a ton of pressure on Super Sunday. Atlanta's defense has been a lot better in the two playoff games and was able to shutdown Aaron Rodgers by bringing pressure. They can do the same to Tom Brady. I don't think that "having been here before" is that big of an edge for the Pats, whose largest SB margin of victory is four points in a game they probably should have lost (Seattle). 10* Atlanta |
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02-05-17 | Colorado v. California -6.5 | Top | 66-77 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
8* California (4:30 ET): It appears as if you have to be a pretty good team to beat Cal. Their last four losses have come against Virginia, Arizona, UCLA and Oregon. Sunday's opponent, Colorado, is not at that level. Yes, the Bears did lose earlier in the year to San Diego State and Seton Hall. But those were neutral site games. Here in Berkeley, the team is 13-2 SU w/ an avg MOV of +12 points per game. The only two home losses came to Virginia and Arizona by a combined nine points. It was a double overtime win here on Thursday (over Utah) and while that can take a lot out of a team, the fact that Colorado is playing its second road game of the weekend mitigates that. I can't see the Buffaloes pulling back to back upsets (won at Stanford on Thurs). Lay the points. I really like this Cal team. Even though it was a double overtime game Thursday, they never trailed Utah by more than three points. The Utes came in shooting a Pac 12 best 53.9% from the field, but Cal held them to just 41.5%. It was just the second game all year that the Bears were outrebounded. I do not think it's going to happen in B2B games. Ivan Rabb now has 11 double-doubles and the Bears blocked nine shots against Utah. There should be a massive edge inside for the home team in this game. By the way, Colorado is just 1-11 SU all-time in Berkeley. While just 1-5 ATS the L6 games, Cal has won all but one of those straight up, a visit to an Oregon team that has not lost a home game all season. Defensively, the Bears have a massive edge in this game. They allow only 59.9 PPG at home while Colorado allows 80.4 PPG on the road. Colorado is just 3-6 SU in "true" road games this year. They upset Stanford on Thursday despite a season-high 23 turnovers and making just one field goal over the final six minutes. That actually made it B2B upsets as they shocked Oregon last week in Boulder. This three-game win streak looks "nice and shiny," but remember that the Buffs opened Pac 12 play 0-7. With a tough three-game road trip looming, this is almost a "must-win" for Cal. I feel they're going to dominate the inside and score at will this afternoon. At the same time, Colorado is due to regress after pulling off a pair of upsets. 8* California |
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02-04-17 | Hawaii +6.5 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): The Warriors may be in the second game of a back to back, and off an upset, but they're getting far too many points tonight at Cal State Northridge. The host Matadors have won three consecutive games, oddly as 1-pt favorites every time, but this price range is a bit of rarefied air for them. Only twice all season have they been asked to lay this many points and both times they failed; home games against Idaho State and UC Riverside. Thus, I'll look past what is typically an unfavorable situation for Hawaii as I think they're getting enough help from the oddsmakers to make this a winning ticket. Take the points. Believe it or not, but Hawaii has played only THREE "true" road games so far. Thursday was their first win as they went to UC Riverside as 3.5-pt dogs and won outright, 72-63. It was their second consecutive win after routing UC Santa Barbara at home last Saturday by a score of 78-56. Three of the team's four Big West losses this year have been by six points or less. The only bad one was to UC Irvine, who is easily the top team in this league. Thursday saw the Warriors jump up to a huge 20-point halftime lead and then coast in the second half. They have already beating Northridge once this year, 80-77 as 2.5-point home favorites. It was pretty remarkable that they were able to win despite a -16 disadvantage in FT attempts. CS Northridge is not a good defensive team as they allow over 81 points per game. That makes them pretty unappealing as a favorite right there. They are off a wild 108-98 win over Long Beach State Thursday, their 1st game hitting triple digits on the scoreboard since a double overtime loss in 2014. The Matadors do lead the conference in points per game, but at "only" 79.1. They had trouble getting stops in the season's 1st meeting vs. Hawaii and are 1-9 ATS this year coming off a game where they allowed 80+ points. The Matadors are not only 6-17 ATS seeking revenge for a road loss, but also only 1-6 ATS at home this year. 8* Hawaii |
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02-04-17 | Hornets +9 v. Jazz | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (9:05 ET): What has happened to the Hornets? They've totally lost their sting, that's for sure, as the team comes into Saturday on a six-game losing skid. Though it should be noted that two of the losses came to Golden State, there is no denying that Charlotte is going through its roughest patch of the season. However, despite now being four games below .500 and tied for 8th in the Eastern Conference, they actually still own the fifth best point differential in the East. Tonight may seem like a tough task at Utah, especially if Kemba Walker (illness) can't go. But I believe the Hornets find a way to at least stay within the number. Utah isn't exactly a team built to blow out opponents by large margins. Take the points. The Jazz, like Charlotte, have had the last two days off. Unlike the Hornets, they are off a win. They beat Milwaukee, here at home, 104-88 as eight-point chalk. But prior to that, they'd dropped three of four straight up and were just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight. Going back further, they are only 4-11 ATS L15. Defensively, Utah is among the very best teams in the league (3rd in efficiency) and holds foes to an average of just 93.3 PPG at home. But they're also one of the few teams that doesn't average 100 PPG. In the role of favorite, the team is simply less appealing, particularly this price range. We also know that they will be w/o Rodney Hood, who is out w/ a knee injury. Charlotte will be w/o Cody Zeller and that's meant bad news in the past. They are an ugly 1-11 SU when their starting center is out of the lineup this year. But help has arrived in the form of Miles Plumlee, who is scheduled to make his Hornets debut here. With or without Walker, the team's defense can't be any worse than it was against the Warriors on Wednesday. They allowed 21 three-pointers in that game, something Utah is simply not capable of doing. I just think the Hornets are a lot better than what they've been showing of late. They did beat Utah early in the year, at home. 10* Charlotte |
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02-04-17 | UAB -7.5 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 67-82 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
10* UAB (4:00 ET): The Blazers just lost (on the road) to a bad UTEP team Thursday night, but will get a chance to bounce back here against one of C-USA's other bottom-feeders, that being UTSA. Given the events of 48 hours ago, UAB is now available at a far cheaper price than they ought to be. Prior to losing at UTEP, they had won seven of eight. Meanwhile, UTSA has lost four in a row. Thursday brought their first home loss of the year, to Middle Tennessee, but this may be viewed as a bit of a letdown spot by the players after hosting the league's top team. They even had a lead at halftime, but obviously could not hold on. I think it will be tough for the players to get over that disappointment. UAB is 6-2 ATS off a SU loss. Lay the points. UAB also enjoyed a halftime lead in their previous game, only to come up short. In their case, they held UTEP to only 19 first half points. But a key 14-2 second run by the Miners totally changed the game and UAB could not recover. It was a rare off night from the floor for the Blazers, who shot just 39.3% for the game, including 6 of 20 from three-point range. They also certainly did not help themselves from the FT line where they went just 9 of 18. That's a killer in what ended up being a four-point loss. I anticipate UAB's shooting will improve dramatically here as in each of the six games previous to the loss to UTEP, they were above 50% from the field. They are also normally a very good FT shooting team (76%); in fact, they are 20th in the country at the charity stripe! UTSA does well defensively, at least at home (61.4 PPG allowed), but struggles offensively. They are 325th nationally in scoring offense and 341st in FG%. The Roadrunners have been below 40% from the field in five straight games. While they've got the nice home record, most of the wins were close. They come into today off four straight double digit losses, a streak which began w/ one of the ugliest performances of this entire NCAAB season, that being a 59-39 loss at UTEP. I feel that given the disparate ways these two teams shoot the ball, there's a reciepe for a blowout here. Something that's also benefited UTSA at home this year is opponents are only making 63.4% of foul shots. That cannot possibly continue. 10* UAB |
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02-04-17 | Akron v. Ohio | Top | 70-85 | Win | 100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
10* Ohio (12:00 ET): The number of teams still w/o a conference loss continues to dwindle and THREE such teams will be an underdog on Saturday. The first is Akron, who visits MAC East rival Ohio. These teams have already met once this season w/ the Zips (obviously) winning 83-68 as six-point favorites. Since then, their cushion in the division has grown to four full games as Ohio has lost two more times, including their last time out as they fell 90-85 at Western Michigan on Tuesday. That game saw the Bobcats blow a 21-pt lead (were up 10 w/ just over 5 mins remaining). As heartbreaking a defeat as that may be, I expect OU to get over it quickly in this revenge spot. Lat the points. Ohio has not been the same since losing Antonio Campbell for the year. The senior forward was leading the team in scoring (16.4 PPG). All four league losses have come since the injury. But they've also managed to win big at both Northern Illinois and Bowling Green w/o him. Plus, they did lead WMU big on the road. The Bobcats did not have him the first time they faced Akron, so it's not as if they will have to make up lost production. They've also shot the ball at 50% or better in each of the L3 games. Here in Athens, they're 9-2 SU and holding teams to just 61.9 points per game. Those two home losses have been by a combined seven points. They happen to be the last two home games they've played. So, that's another reason motivation will be high here. Akron could also be w/o a key contributor Saturday afternoon. Michael Hughes is listed as questionable. Even with him, the Zips have been a pretty lucky team this season. Their luck rating at KenPom is actually second highest in the country, trailing only Sam Houston State. What do I mean by that? Well, for starters, they have a ton of close wins. Six by five points or less to be exact. Five of those took place in January, including the last two times they've been in action. Last Saturday, they squeaked by Buffalo by a single point, 91-90 as 7.5-pt chalk. They won that game via two free throws in the final seconds. Then on Tuesday, they had to rally back from a 14-point halftime deficit to win at Northern Illinois, 76-73. So we have a team off a huge come from behind victory visiting a team that just blew a huge lead and lost its previous game. With this also being the second of B2B road games for Akron, it's tough to like them in this spot. Ohio is 29-11 ATS its L40 games as a home favorite of three points or less. Akron goes down for the 1st time in MAC play. 10* Ohio |
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02-03-17 | Pacers v. Nets +7 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets are not a good basketball team, so why the endorsement here? Well, this is the second time in a row we find the Pacers laying points on the road. The first saw them outlast Orlando Wednesday night, 98-88. I admit that I was on the Magic there, but the longview says Indiana isn't likely to keep covering away from home. They are still just 8-15 - both SU and ATS - on the road this year. They're home tomorrow night for a game w/ Detroit and could be looking ahead. Also, they've been able to pull out some lucky wins of late. Not saying Brooklyn wins here but they will keep it within the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. Take the points. The Nets have won just 1 of their last 19 games. So why do I think they have a chance here? Well, in addition to Indiana's road woes, the Nets have been fairly competitive of late. Four of their last five losses have come by eight points or less. Against the Knicks on Wednesday, they led most of the way before blowing the game late. They jumped out to a 27-15 first half lead and led for the first three quarters. The 38 points allowed in the first half marked a season-low. It's somewhat cruel that a team known for playing bad defense still couldn't get the job done even when holding the opponent to 35.4% shooting. Typically, Brooklyn can score. Tonight, I think they can take advantage of an Indiana team that allows nearly 110 PPG on the road. Prior to beating Orlando two nights ago, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU/ATS as road favorites. Suffice to say, this will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any road game this season. Earlier in the year, they came to Brooklyn as six-point favorites and lost the game outright. Consider that there have been eight times this season when the Nets have lost a game where they blew a double digit lead. They do play at the league's fastest pace, so they have that going for them. Indiana recently won a couple of games it probably didn't deserve to, including an overtime game against Sacramento last Friday. Probably time to "sell high" on this group. 10* Brooklyn |
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02-03-17 | St. Peter's v. Monmouth -8.5 | Top | 70-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
10* Monmouth (7:00 ET): Though they've won eight straight and are seemingly in control of their conference, don't expect any kind of letdown from MAAC leader Monmouth in this situation. That's because they're matched up w/ the last team to beat them, St. Peter's. When these schools met back on January 2nd, the Peacocks prevailed 71-61 as 5.5-pt home dogs. That result left Monmouth at 0-2 in conference play. It was a bad shooting night for the Hawks, who scored only 19 points in first half en route to what still stands as their lowest scoring output in conference play this season. St. Peter's has remained formidable, especially when taking points, but tonight should be Monmouth's night to garner revenge. Lay the points. Like I alluded to, St. Peter's has been really strong at the betting window. They've gone 9-2 ATS L11 and since the upset of Monmouth, their only three SU losses have come by 2, 2 and 3 points. But tonight is their third consecutive road game and they are off a loss, at Iona, on Sunday. That was an overtime game as well and saw the Peacocks fail to get the job done defensively. Iona made 13 of 23 three-pointers and that's something to keep an eye on here as Monmouth makes an average of nine shots per game from behind the arc. I'm pretty surprised to see St. Peter's doing this well in conference play considering nationally they rank outside the top 300 in points, rebounds and assists per game! It should be noted that the L2 times the Peacocks have been on a three-game ATS win streak (as they are here), they've failed to cover the next time out. Monmouth is 10-1 SU at home and averaging 86 PPG. Last time here, they set the school record for points scored in a single game w/ 95 in a beatdown of Quinnipiac. That was their second straight home victory scoring 90 or more points. Monday, they poured in 83 in a double digit win at Marist. Overall, the team has won four in a row by double digits. There's some definite value here considering the Hawks were favored by 5.5 at St. Peter's last month. While they actually trailed Marist at the half Monday, I'm not too concerned given that Monmouth should shoot a lot better than 40% here. They did score 56 pts in the second half. Again, this figures to be one that the Hawks have had circled on their calendar for some time. They'll take no mercy. 10* Monmouth |
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02-02-17 | Niagara v. Fairfield -5.5 | Top | 61-81 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Fairfield (8:00 ET): The opening suggested that these two MAAC teams are relatively even, but I don't believe that to be the case. Sure, Fairfield had its share of struggles in January. At one point, they'd lost five in a row, clearly bottoming out w/ a 42-point loss at Monmouth on 1.22. But since then, the Stags have rallied for B2B victories, both here at home. The last one came by 29 points, Tuesday vs. Manhattan. Niagara is also off a win, 80-67 over Rider on Saturday, but the Purple Eagles now find themselves on the road. That's a place they haven't been too often recently, in fact, only one of their previous six games took place on the road. This is a small number and Fairfield is already 5-1 ATS this season when taking on a team w/ a losing record. Lay the points. This is the first meeting of the season between these two. Fairfield swept last year while Niagara did the same in 2015. While the visitors come into this game having won three of four, two of the wins required late rallies. On 1.21, Niagara scored the game's final six points to beat St. Peter's by two. Then on Saturday, they closed on a 24-9 run to get by Rider, 80-67. That marked the Purple Eagles' largest margin of victory in a MAAC game this year. They benefited by Rider shooting only 36.8% for the game. I expect them to struggle defensively in this game, given that they allow 77.7 PPG for the season. They are just 2-9 SU on the road as well. As mentioned above, Fairfield also rolled to victory in their last game. They held Manhattan to only 25% shooting in a 78-49 win Tuesday. While it's a quick turnaround here for the Stags, I expect them to keep rolling at home. Saturday, they beat Marist here by double digits as well. At home, the Stags do a great job of defending the three-point line as they allow just 26.9% shooting from behind the arc. 10* Fairfield |
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02-02-17 | Memphis University v. South Florida +13 | Top | 85-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
10* South Florida (7:00 ET): USF got absolutely rocked in its last game, losing by 41 to the best team in the American, Cincinnati. Thus, it was a given that the number would be inflated for their next game (and it is) as they return home to host Memphis. Memphis is not as good as Cincinnati and while USF certainly has plenty of ground to make up after Saturday, this is a good value. Yes, I realize the Bulls have yet to win a single conference game this season and are averaging less than 60 PPG in AAC play. But Memphis seems unworthy of this price range, given their defensive struggles on the road and overall problems covering the spread (1-4-1 ATS L6). Take the points. South Florida has already played Memphis tough once this year, losing by only six on the road. That game took place a little over two weeks ago and was a pretty ugly affair. Had USF gotten to the FT line more than SEVEN times, perhaps they could have pulled an outright upset. They held the Tigers to 35.1% shooting. Whatever offensive improvement we see from Memphis tonight will be mitigated on the defensive end. They are giving up 76.9 PPG on the road so far this season. They are just 2-2 in American road games w/ one of the wins by only a three-point margin. Even at home, they didn't shoot the ball well Saturday, making just over 30% of their shots in an ugly 57-50 win over East Carolina. Obviously, when a team is 0-9 SU in conference play, there aren't a ton of positives to report. But South Florida is third in the league in three-point percentage and they have outscored opponents by 86 points in the painted area. As hard as it is to win conference road games, this is just way too many points for a pedestrian team like Memphis to lay. 10* South Florida |
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02-02-17 | Michigan State +1 v. Nebraska | Top | 72-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Believe it or not, Nebraska actually swept the season series from Michigan State last year. The two wins came by a combined three points, however. Still, that makes this a big double revenge spot for HC Izzo and Sparty, who could use the win anyway. This MSU team is not as strong as per usual. Their record is only 13-9 SU and prior to beating rival Michigan on Saturday, they had dropped three in a row. Of course, this is the time of year when the Spartans traditionally "turn it on." They've gone 10-3 ATS the L2 seasons in the month of February and I do believe they're catching Nebraska at an opportune time here. The Cornhuskers just upset Purdue here in Lincoln over the weekend, so they're likely in store for a letdown. Prior to that win over Purdue, Nebraska had really been struggling. They'd lost five straight, which makes MSU's three-game skid seem like "small potatoes" by comparison. Granted, two of those five Huskers losses were decided by a single point and were decided at the buzzer. But one came to lowly Rutgers. What went right for them against Purdue? Well, two players (Jack McVeigh and Jeriah Horne) came off the bench to score a total of 37 points, which was an unlikely boost. I don't think that duo can be counted on a nightly basis. While a couple of close games may not have gone Nebraska's way recently, note all four wins in Big 10 play have been by four points or less. Then there was last season's pretty fortuitous sweep of Michigan State. What I'm saying is that another close loss tonight would not surprise me. Michigan State is still considered a NCAA Tournament team, but a loss here could do some real damage to their resume. Like Nebraska, they were able to turn things around over the weekend. Unlike Nebraska, they did it w/ defense by holding the Wolverines to just 33.9% shooting for the game, including 7 of 26 from three-point range. This is still a top 50 defense in terms of efficiency, mind you. While MSU has lost nine times, it's not as if many of those defeats were bad losses. Five of them came at the hands of Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor, Duke and Purdue. Those are all top 20 teams. I just can't see a third consecutive loss to Nebraska taking place as I would have MSU as the slight favorite, even on the road. Revenge will be theirs. 8* Michigan State |
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02-01-17 | Air Force v. Fresno State -9 | Top | 64-73 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:00 ET): This is another revenge spot, for Fresno, as they lost to the Flyboys last month in Colorado Springs. What followed for the Bulldogs was an impressive three-game win streak, including victories over Boise State and Nevada. But that came to a halt Saturday night w/ a bit of a surprising loss at Utah State (were 2-pt favorites). Air Force has not played since last Tuesday when they shocked San Diego State 60-57. That, ironically, snapped a three-game losing streak and was their first win since beating Fresno State back on 1.11. I look for Fresno to get its revenge here as the home court advantage is a big deal, not only considering their own 9-1 SU home mark, but the fact Air Force is winless on the road. Lay the point. The home-road disparity has played itself out for FSU throughout conference play. They're 4-0 SU at home and 1-4 SU on the road. At home, they just seem to be a bit of a different team as they average 80.0 PPG on almost 49% shooting. That one MWC road win was a big one as it came at Nevada, giving them a season sweep of the Wolfpack, who are considered to be the best the conference has to offer. This has been a bit of a covering machine this season as they're 12-4 ATS overall and 5-1 at home. A bad shooting night (35%) of their own combined w/ hot shooting from the opponent (56%) is what doomed them Saturday in Logan. But I don't see Air Force being able to create the same kind of disparity that Utah State did. Certainly not on the road. The Falcons have lost all eight times they've venture off campus this year, including six "true" road games. In the process, they are giving up an average of more than 81 PPG. It's a real stark contrast between home and away as in Colorado Springs they're outscoring opponents by double digits while on the road they are being outscored by double digits. The season best effort on the defensive end against SDSU last week isn't likely to be duplicated here as the Falcons are just 3-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 pts or less the previous game. I also think the week off can hinder more than help. Just look at FSU, who was in the same spot on Saturday (also coming off an upset). Though the AFA has covered 8 of the past 10 matchups vs. Fresno, the Bulldogs have still won eight of those straight up. 8* Fresno State |
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02-01-17 | St Bonaventure v. Duquesne +7 | Top | 71-64 | Push | 0 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
8* Duquesne (8:00 ET): The Dukes may very well always be a bottom tier team in the Atlantic 10, but tonight they're catching a nice number at home against a vulnerable St. Bonaventure squad. The Bonnies are off a loss at Rhode Island on Saturday and are now being asked to play B2B games on the road for the 1st time since conference play commenced. Duquesne, meanwhile, will just be happy to be back home following road losses to Davidson and Richmond last week. Each team's loss on Saturday can be explained by bad FG% numbers. St. Bonaventure shot just 29.5% against Rhose Island while Duquesne ALLOWED Richmond to shoot 53.4% (and gave up 101 pts in the process w/ no overtime). I feel Duquesne's defensive numbers are more likely to dramatically improve here than SBU's offensive numbers. Take the points. Scoring 90 points and not covering as a double digit dog is tough to do in this spot, but Duquesne pulled off the feat on Saturday. It was their fifth loss in a row and seventh in the last eight games. Making matters more frustrating from Saturday's ATS loss is that the Dukes actually led outright, 57-52, early in the second half! It also didn't help that Richmond essentially doubled them up at the free throw, which was key in the result at the betting window. While the conference record obviously isn't good, it's not like the Dukes were favored to win many of these games (only one, vs. St. Louis, whom they beat). It also hasn't helped that they've had to play most of the top teams in the conference. Overall, they've remained competitive as they're only being outscored by 3.0 PPG for the year. While 13-7 SU overall, St. Bonaventure's margins of victory have tended to be razor thin. Their most impressive work of the year came at neutral settings. Take those six games away and they're winning by an average margin of less than three points per game! Prior to losing at Rhode Island on Saturday (trailed wire to wire), the Bonnies needed to rally back from 18 down to overcome St. Joe's the game before. With a big home game looming vs. VCU this weekend, I look for this to be a bit of a trap spot for St. Bonaventure, who is just 2-2 ATS as a favorite in conference play. 8* Duquesne |
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02-01-17 | Pacers v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:35 ET): With a three-game win streak, Indiana has risen to sixth place in what is still a pretty weak Eastern Conference. Despite this, they've still been outscored over the course of the season. They are off an impressive upset of Houston, but that was at home. Now they hit the road where they've gone just 7-16 SU/ATS this year and giving up 110.9 points per game. Furthermore, coming off an upset win has not been an advantageous spot for them this year as they're only 1-6 ATS in the role. Granted, laying just a short number to an Orlando team that is one of the few NOT in the contention in the East might not sound all that challenging. But the Magic have been competitive the L2 games, including an outright win at Toronto. Take the points. The Magic admittedly haven't fared well in the past vs. the Pacers. They're just 1-8 SU/ATS L9 H2H meetings including an 0-2 mark this year. Both prior meetings though came in Indiana. The first saw Orlando score just 69 points. The second saw them give up 117. So there's clear work to be done on both ends of the floor here. Fortunately, leading scorer Evan Fournier (16.8 PPG) has returned to the lineup. Also, as mentioned before, Indiana is not good on the defensive end when taking its act on the road. Overall, the Pacers have allowed 100+ pts in 14 of their last 15 games. Last time out, Fournier and the Magic weren't in a great spot, playing the second of B2B road games at Minnesota. They were off the upset of Toronto the night prior, but still were able to take the T'wolves into overtime before falling by only six. Back at home w/ a day off, I expect the team to play well. Indiana's win over Houston was surprising, particularly the margin of victory it came by. They shot 54% in a 120-101 outright win as three-point dogs as Paul George scored 30+ for a fourth straight game. The Pacers were also fortunate in that James Harden had an off-shooting night (3 of 17!). Speaking of good fortune, Friday's win over Sacramento would certainly qualify as they basically trailed the whole game before a furious fourth quarter rally led to overtime. I definitely put a ton of stock in the home vs. road split w/ this team as they're being outscored by 6.8 PPG on the road. As a road favorite, they're a terrible 1-6 both SU and ATS. 8* Orlando |
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02-01-17 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -9.5 | Top | 62-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
10* Clemson (7:00 ET): If his team keeps it up, Georgia Tech's Josh Pastner is certainly going to win ACC Coach of the Year. He probably is worthy of some National COY discussion. That's because his Yellow Jackets, picked to do next to nothing this year, keep pulling upsets. In the last six games alone, they've won straight up four times as a dog. They're 6-0 ATS overall. That stretch started w/ a 75-63 win in Atlanta over Clemson (were +10). Tonight is the rematch w/ the Tigers, in Death Valley, and incredibly Clemson will be asked to lay fewer points here than they were on the road. Granted, CU had lost six in a row before Saturday's 67-60 win at Pitt. But this is still a good team, one that is clearly capable of winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here. Lay the points. Again, I'd like to point out that Ga Tech has yet to be favored in a single ACC game! Their latest upset came on Saturday when they stunned Notre Dame on a last second buzzer beater. It was the Jackets' second victory over a top 15 team last week as they also destroyed Florida State. Both games took place in Atlanta. Against Notre Dame, they trailed by as many as 10 early and were able to overcome poor three-point shooting. Despite the impressive week (and month for that matter), you have to wonder when the Jackets will begin simply regressing to the mean. They are only 1-3 SU on the ACC road mind you. At Virginia, they managed only 49 points. At Duke, they were beaten 110-57. On the offensive end, the team has yet to shoot better than 50% in any conference game this season. Clemson may not be in the same class as a Virginia or Duke, but like those two teams, they can beat Ga Tech by double digits. Remember that the Tigers opened the year 12-2 SU. Then 2017 happened. After opening ACC play with a win at Wake Forest on New Year's Eveb, the team dropped six straight, four of the losses coming by five points or less. They've had to play North Carolina, Notre Dame, Louisville and Virginia. No shame in losing to those teams. Really, the only "bad" loss is the one to tonight's opponent as they were 10-pt favorites in Atlanta. In retrospect, that was clearly a bad read by the oddsmakers but that doesn't mean it's not a tremendous value now laying fewer points at home. In that first matchup, Clemson shot just 36.7% from the floor. I project major improvement from that number here as they are at 47.2% at home where they average an impressive 81.2 PPG. 10* Clemson |
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01-31-17 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -9.5 | Top | 68-77 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (11:00 ET): Both teams here are off home losses. That said, it's still a huge benefit for San Diego State to be at home. Whether you're talking football or basketball, Wyoming sports always seems to have one of the sharpest home-road dichotomies. This year's Pokes also have a strong split in terms of being favored or an underdog. When favored, they're 10-0 SU. When they're an underdog, they're just 2-6. Take away the one time they were favored (won 80-70 over lowly San Jose State) and they're just 1-5 SU in "true" roadies with all of the losses coming by six points or more. It's been many years since they last won here at Viejas Arena. Lay the points. San Diego State was the consensus choice to win the Mountain West this year, but stumbled out of the gate, losing its first three league games. They went on to win the next three, but tonight hope to avoid a pattern as they're off B2B losses, both as favorites. First it was a road loss at Air Force last Tuesday, 60-57, as 6.5-pt chalk. That game saw the Aztecs blow a second point lead. It was another narrow setback on Saturday, this time on the road, as they lost in the final seconds at Colorado State. That was a one-point game. In fact, three of the Aztecs' five league losses have come by three points or less. All three wins have been by double digits. They do remain tops in the conference, giving up just 62.9 points per game. I really do like their chances of a bounce back here. Among Mountain West teams, Wyoming takes the most three-pointers and makes the fewest. That's a rather dubious combination. They are making less than 30 percent of their attempts from behind the arc in conference play. On the road, that number drops to a horrendous 26.5%. I think the Cowboys simply lack the firepower to keep pace here against what should be a very motivated favorite thaty's looking to bounce back from a pretty rare home defeat. 10* San Diego State |
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01-31-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers +3 | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The last time that the Lakers hosted the Nuggets, oddsmakers had the game as a pick em. So there's clearly some value on the home side in this rematch, although I should point out that the Nuggets did win that last meeting, 127-121. Still, I don't believe that's enough to justify the shift in the market that's taken place. Sure the Lakers have just one SU win in the last three weeks and are w/o PG D'Angelo Russell. But the Nuggets happen to be w/o Nikola Jokic and I do not see them winning a fourth straight game here tonight. Take the points. Denver has won seven of nine overall and Jokic was a big reason for that. The big man had been averaging 23.9 points, 11.1 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this month. He's also shooting 60 percent from the floor this season. So his absence is going to be a big deal. The team was able to overcome it Saturday in Phoenix as they got a season-high 32 points from Danilo Gallinari and they went to the free throw line a ridiculous number of times (42), making 37. For the season, their road record is still only 9-14 SU and they are giving up 111.1 points per game overall, third most in the league. The only time that the Lakers have won since 1.8 was the last time they played at home, 108-96 over Indiana. They just played three in a row on the road and did cover Thursday night in Utah, as 14-pt dogs. They haven't played since, making this the longest stretch of time off they've had between two games all season. It should serve them well. Also, there's a lot of revenge in play here as the Lakers are 0-5 SU and ATS the last five times hosting the Nuggets. At home, the Lakers have been a lot more competitive this year and actually own a positive scoring differential! There aren't exactly a lot of "prime spots" to back the Lakers, but this is one of them. 8* LA Lakers |