Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-05-19 | Kent State v. Wisconsin -35 | Top | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): Interesting scenario here. We've already laid one big number w/ Wisconsin against a MAC team (Central Michigan) and that wound up being a 61-0 win. We've also previously laid a big number against this Kent State team (-36 w/ Auburn) and that ended up being a 55-16 win. With Wisconsin every bit as good as Auburn and Kent State every bit as bad as Central Michigan, this number makes sense. What doesn't is that it's started to trickle down a bit. Kent State is just 1-18 SU its last 19 games vs. current Big 10 teams and it should be noted the one win came against Rutgers, who was in the Big East at the time. The 18 losses have been by an average of over 30 PPG. Wisconsin is very much for real this year. Lay the big number. Coming off a very impressive beatdown of Michigan, it was going to be next to impossible for Wisconsin to come out w/ the same intensity against Northwestern last weekend here in Camp Randall. While they failed to cover the 24.5-point spread, they nevertheless did win 24-15, a game where the defense allowed just over 3.0 yards per play. The fact they were slightly outgained by N'western is misleading in the sense they ran 22 fewer plays. The offense will obviously have to play a lot better this week and should against a Kent State defense that was gashed for 467 yards on the ground by Auburn two weeks ago. In case you forgot, the Badgers have RB Jonathan Taylor, who has rushed for 100+ yards in nine consecutive games. That's the longest active streak in the country entering Saturday. Conversely, Kent State is going to struggle to move the ball in this game. Yes, the Golden Flashes did just go for 62 points and a school-record 750 yards last week. But that was against one of the worst teams in the entire country, Bowling Green, who is a 46.5-point underdog this week. Now the Flashes face the #1 ranked defense in the country that is giving up just 7.3 points and 192.3 yards per game. The Badgers defense has actually scored nearly as many TD's (3) as it has allowed (4). Opponents are converting just 15.5% on third-downs against Wisconsin, the lowest percentage in the nation. Needless to say, it is going to be a rude return to Madison for Kent State HC Sean Lewis, who was a QB and TE here over a decade ago. 8* Wisconsin |
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10-04-19 | Twins +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
10* Run Line Minnesota (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing the Twins +1.5. From how we look at things, there are a couple of reasons why Minnesota would be this large of an underdog for Game 1. None of them have to do w/ anything you will see play out on the field Friday. Well, you'll see the Yankee name on the front of the jerseys and that alone has a lot to do w/ how the marketplace reacts. But such a reaction is often irrational and based merely on "reputation." Speaking of reputation, the Twins don't have a good one in the postseason, especially when matched up w/ the Yankees. From 2004-2010, they lost four LDS to the Yankees and overall have lost 13 consecutive playoff games. But it's 2019 and we have reason to believe this time will be a little different for the Twins. Let's start w/ their record-setting lineup, which had FIVE players hit at least 30 home runs. No other lineup in baseball history can claim that. Yes, the Yankees also ended up hitting more than 300 HR's total, something no other team had ever done, but the Twins finished w/ ONE more on the year. An interesting tidbit w/ this Twins offense is that it performs better on the road. They averaged 6.1 runs per game on the road, the highest such average in all of MLB. That resulted in them winning 55 regular season games on the road, which was easily the most. Jose Berrios starts Game 1 for the Twins. He may not have been dominant down the stretch, but he was certainly effective and ended up having a good year. He has 26 strikeouts in his last 26 1/3 IP. The Yankees did not face him in any of the six regular season meetings. The one weak spot w/ this Yankees team is the starting rotation. Though Game 1 starter James Paxton has a perfect 11-0 TSR since the beginning of August, he did leave his last start w/ a sore muscle. We think Paxton could be "due" for a loss here. Interestingly, the Yankees were ML home favorites in the -175 to -250 range 22 times in the regular season and lost 10 of those games. The Twins lost the regular season finale, but are 44-18 off a loss. They do no worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 10* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5) |
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10-04-19 | Cardinals v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (4:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are backing Atlanta +1.5. The Braves lost Game 1, 7-6, which is costly as it was a home game. It was their first blown lead of 2+ runs in the eighth inning or later in the postseason since 2005. Now they've got to face Jack Flaherty, who has been as lights out as any pitcher in baseball in the second half. But if there's one "saving grace" for the Braves, it's that Game 2 is still in Atlanta. Obviously, dropping the first two games at home in a five-game series is basically a death knell. But fortunately for Atlanta, Flaherty hasn't been as effective on the road this year. The Cardinals are just 8-9 in his 17 road starts. Look for the Braves to do no worse here than a one-run loss. The Braves had a 3-1 lead entering the top of the 8th yday and seemed poised to take Game 1. But they allowed the Cardinals to score six times in the final two frames, including four in the 9th. They then put forth their own rally, scoring two in the bottom of the ninth, but it wasn't enough. Of course, if they were to come up one run shy again today, that's okay given how we're playing the game. If you're looking for motivation here, Atlanta has now dropped nine straight postseason games, which is one away from tying the MLB record set by the Cubs. They've also lost nine straight postseason series going back to 2001. Look for an "all out effort" in Game 2 Friday afternoon. It would be silly to run through Flaherty's exploit as that would only raise apprehension about playing against the Cardinals starter today. However, what about the Braves starter for Game 2, Mike Foltynewicz? He's been every bit as good as Flaherty recently. Over his last three starts, Foltynewicz has a 2.00 ERA and 0.722 WHIP. He's allowed just five ER his L5 starts, the exact same number as Flaherty, though in four fewer IP. But the bottom line is that w/ Atlanta in full desperation mode, getting them +1.5 at home is a value too great to pass up. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) |
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10-03-19 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +10.5 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
10* South Alabama (7:30 ET): I guess I can understand why South Alabama is a double digit dog here. After all, every time they've faced a FBS opponent this year, they've lost by at least 13 pts. (Their only win was 37-14 over Jackson State). The Jaguars have also lost five straight years to Georgia Southern, failing to cover the spread in all five games. All five were decided by at least 15 points. Why should you expect anything different Thursday night? Well, Georgia Southern has also yet to beat a FBS opponent this year! They aren't exactly "favorite material" (if you know what I mean), especially when it comes to laying double digits on the road. Take the points here. Georgia Southern certainly failed to impress me last Saturday as they lost 37-24 at home to Louisiana. We've come away impressed w/ Louisiana in the past, but they were playing on the road for a second straight week while Georgia Southern was off a bye. It's a spot you'd expect the Eagles to play better in. Instead, it was a game they never led (despite being +2 in TO's) and got outgained 440-252. The only team the Eagles have beaten this year is Maine and that was by just eight points (26-18) at home. Their other two losses were against Power 5 opponents (LSU, Minnesota) on the road. After winning 10 games a year ago, Ga Southern definitely was a candidate to regress in 2019, but it appears said regression could be more severe than anticipated. South Alabama may represent a steep drop in class from a P5 opponent, but we still see them being a "tough out" in this spot, despite the poor history w/ Ga Southern. The Jaguars have taken their lumps so far this year, but they did cover against Nebraska (lost by only 14 in Lincoln) and then last week at La Monroe. It was a 7-pt game LW heading into the 4Q and USA actaully had a 24-18 edge in first downs over ULM. After playing three of the first five games on the road, including B2B weeks, the Jaguars should be pretty motivated for a Thursday night home game on ESPNU. They are 7-2 ATS the L9 times they've been off B2B losses. There was just one time LY where Ga Southern was favored by more than this on the road and we faded them in the spot. They were facing a bad Texas State team and only won the game 15-13. Same thing here. 10* South Alabama |
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09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): A battle of 0-3 teams is certainly not what the ESPN brass had expected here, at least certainly not from the Pittsburgh side of things. But the Steelers are definitely reeling in the wake of Ben Roethlisberger’s season ending injury. Ironically though, the only game Big Ben will end up starting and finishing this year was the team’s worst to date, a 33-3 loss to the Patriots. Losses the last two weeks have both been close, coming by a total of six points. While the total yardage count from last week indicates the Black & Gold were outplayed rather drastically by the 49ers, we expect them to bounce back this week. A loss to the Bengals would certainly be a new low in the Steel City. Lay the points. The Bengals have also suffered two close losses to start the year, both of theirs coming on the road. They lost by only 1 at Seattle and then by just 4 LW in Buffalo. In between, they were smashed at home by San Francisco, losing 41-13 while giving up 572 yards in the process. Unlike with Pittsburgh, Cincinnati was not expected to be good this year. They were the consensus choice for last place in the AFC North and that’s where we still see them. While they’ve fought hard in the first two road games, that doesn’t necessarily mean they will this third time around. The Steelers have dominated this division rivalry, beating the Bengals eight straight times and 11 of the last 12. Getting to face Mason Rudolph instead of Big Ben this time, the Bengals probably feel that “this time could be different.” But they remain one of the very worst teams in the league. We’ve got this spread at closer to a touchdown, placing a lot of value on Pittsburgh at home. The Steelers have won 10 of their previous 11 division games and are 17-9 SU the L26 times they were favored. The number is too low here. 10* Pittsburgh |
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09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:20 ET): The Saints as a home underdog? Yes, please! Obviously, we are aware of the Drew Brees injury keeping him out of this game, but that didn't stop New Orleans from going to Seattle last week and winning 33-27 as a 5.5-point underdog. It is very rare to find the Saints getting points at the Mercedes Benz Superdome as it's only happened eight times since 2010. They've gone 6-2 ATS in those games, winning five of them outright. While it's the Brees injury that's largely responsible for this line, there's also a growing amount of respect for Dallas in the marketplace, something that we're not sure whether or not we share in. While the Cowboys are 3-0 SU/ATS, they've beaten the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins, all of whom are bottom five teams. Take the points here. These teams met last year, in primetime, and the Cowboys shockingly handled the Saints. We were on Dallas in that Thursday night game, as 7.5-point home underdogs, and they won 13-10. It was a remarkable defensive effort against Drew Brees, but this time it's Teddy Bridgewater that's the Saints QB and the game is in New Orleans. We would be foolish to suggest that the Saints are better long-term w/ Bridgewater at the helm opposed to Brees, but it's not as if the former can play any worse than Brees did in LY's meeting. Brees was held to 127 yards passing in that game. The Saints still only lost by three. Now, exactly nine months later, they get their shot at revenge and it's been noted "in the building" just how much the Saints remember LY's game. The Cowboys, traditionally, have not been a good favorite under Jason Garrett. They have covered all three games as chalk this year, but again, you have to consider the opponents. The bottom line is that Dallas SHOULD be 3-0 entering this game. But they should not be the betting favorite. We saw last week the oddsmakers severely underestimated some of the backup QB's being called into duty as they went 6-0 ATS, 5-1 SU and the only SU loss was Pittsburgh, by four points, in a game they probably should have won. Bridgewater, who has been a starter before, is an incredible 13-2 ATS when taking points. That's the best ATS record for any QB as an underdog in the Super Bowl era. He's 24-7 ATS overall as a starter. The Saints are being grossly underestimated in this spot as it's a primetime game at home. 10* New Orleans |
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09-29-19 | Vikings +1.5 v. Bears | Top | 6-16 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (4:25 ET): Note - due to the late nature of this pick (being released late A.M. Sunday), analysis will be more brief than usual. Chicago and Minnesota share 2-1 records, but as we always harp on, won-loss records are not always created the same. Chicago’s two wins this year have come against Denver and Washington, two teams that are a combined 0-6. They were fortunate to win in Denver and the Redskins are a complete dumpster fire right now, a team whose defense is so bad that we called for Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense to get on track Monday night. (Had the Over). But that win on MNF didn’t really do much for our overall view on the Bears, who aren’t going to be as successful as they were last year. Minnesota has dominated in its two wins, racing out to 21-0 leads against Atlanta and Oakland. Both of those games came at home, but even on the road the Vikings SHOULD have beaten the Packers. They outgained Green Bay 7.4 to 4.8 on a per play basis, only to be foiled by a couple of egregious and ill-timed Kirk Cousins turnovers. The Vikes should be able to lean on their defense in this game, however. They are tied for 5th in scoring (15.7 PPG allowed) and face a Bears offense that has yet to gain 300 total yards in any game. As far as Cousins is concerned, the offense should focus on running the ball. Only one team can claim to beat their 193.7 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota is the better team here, which is already reflected in the line. But expect them to win outright here as they easily could be 3-0 while the Bears could easily be 1-2. Chicago was actually outgained by Washington on Monday night, but clearly benefited from being +4 in turnovers. Teams coming off a win on Monday night have now failed to cover seven straight times. 8* Minnesota |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +5.5 | Top | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:05 ET): Seattle was 10-6 last season and made the playoffs as a Wild Card. We liked them to regress here in 2019, so imagine our shock when they started 2-0. But those victories came under interesting circumstances. The two teams they beat - the Bengals and Steelers - are now a combined 0-6. They were actually outgained by a bad Bengals team, at home, 429-233. They held on to win that game by one. Then they beat Pittsburgh by two, but that was when the Steelers lost Ben Roethlisberger to injury. The injury occurred with the Steelers ahead. Oddsmakers expected the Seahawks to go to 3-0 last week as they faced the Saints w/o Drew Brees at home. But they were upset 33-27 and it wasn’t really that close. Arizona has yet to win in the Kliff Kingsbury/Kyler Murray era. They did rally for a 27-27 tie w/ the Lions back in Week 1. That’s a Lions team that hasn’t lost. After that, the Cardinals played Baltimore tough, losing by only six on the road. We thought it was a mistake to have them favored last week at home vs. Carolina, even though the Panthers were playing w/o Cam Newton. Sure enough, they lost that game 38-20. But we’ll call for a much better performance at home this week. This line shouldn’t be more than a field goal, in our opinion. The Legion of Boom days are long gone in Seattle. This Seahawks secondary gave up 418 yards passing to Andy Dalton in the opener and has faced a backup quarterback for the last six quarters. Murray may be a rookie, but he’s trusted to throw a lot in the Air Raid system. We certainly don’t like Seattle in this price range. They’ve gone just 4-10-1 ATS as a division road favorite under HC Pete Carroll. They’ve also failed to cover 7 of the last 10 times they’ve been a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points, losing four of those games outright. The Cardinals have covered the last five times as a dog of 3 to 7 points. A desperate home dog is worth taking here. 8* Arizona |
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09-29-19 | Titans +3.5 v. Falcons | Top | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is hardly a great matchup for the favored Falcons. First off, it’s against an AFC opponent. Non-conference games have not treated this team well the last several seasons. A loss last week to the Colts was the 12th straight time they failed to cover against an AFC team (1-11 SU!) They are 5-21 ATS L26. It’s a 4-14 ATS mark under Dan Quinn and the franchise is 1-10 ATS and 3-13 SU when favored in these non-conference games. The fact the Titans come in w/ extra time to prepare (played last Thursday) is another disadvantage Atlanta didn’t need. Take the points. It’s more than just trends working against the Falcons here. The matchup isn’t great either. The strength of this offense is throwing the football. But the Tennessee defense has performed quite well against the pass this year. A defense that has yet to allow more than 20 points in any game this year is also giving up just 190 pass YPG. That’s top four in the league. Plus, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is turning the ball over too much. His six interceptions are tied for the league lead and two of them have come in the red zone. Penalties have also been an issue for the Falcons, something that is usually NOT the case w/ Tennessee (save for last week). Another reason we like the Titans here is the extended prep time. Ten days ago, we faded them as a road favorite in Jacksonville and an anemic attack went down 20-7. The first two teams to lose on Thursday night have come back to win their next game. While Tennessee is rested, Atlanta just suffered a major injury with Keanu Neal tearing his ACL again. This is the second straight season that the All-Pro safety is out with that injury. The defense fell off a cliff w/o him LY. Back to the trends, the Titans are 11-5 SU and 11-3-2 ATS vs. the AFC South. While they failed to cover off a loss LW, the team is still 19-13-1 ATS w/ Mariota in that role. They are also 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS off B2B losses. Let’s not forget they went to Cleveland and won 43-13 in Week 1. 8* Tennessee |
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09-28-19 | Hawaii +2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 54-3 | Win | 101 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): We've got Hawaii rated as the better team here, so don't be surprised when they go to Reno this week and win. The Rainbow Warriors already won big for us once this year, on the very first day of the season, when they hosted Arizona and won that game outright 45-38 (as 10-pt dogs). They've since gone 2-1 despite a schedule that included two more Pac 12 teams (beat Oregon State). A 52-20 loss at Washington (still a very good team) was really not as bad as the final score looks. Despite not scoring on any of their first six possessions and turning it over three times, the Warriors were only down 18 entering the 4Q. Last week was a chance to get back on track as they routed FCS Central Arkansas. We'll take the points here. Meanwhile, Nevada got one over on us last week as they outlasted UTEP 37-21 as 14-point favorites. In the analysis, we conceded UTEP wasn't much of a team, but were willing to grab the points against what we viewed as an overvalued favorite w/ an injury at the QB position. Sure enough, the game was tied 21-21 in the 3Q. The Wolf Pack did not seize the lead for good until there was a little over 16 minutes left of game time. Remember that this is a team that also has suffered a rout at the hands of a Pac 12 opponent (Oregon). Only Nevada lost 77-6 in a very non-competitive effort. There is that season-opening upset of Purdue, but as detailed last week that was a very phony (and lucky) victory. The Wolf Pack's only other win this year was by six over a FCS team, Weber State. QB Carson Strong is expected back this week for Nevada, but we still view Hawaii as the superior side. Now each of the last two years has seen the Wolf Pack pull an upset, including 40-22 LY in Honolulu. But the Warriors should be motivated by that double revenge angle and the fact they've lost 10 straight games in the state of Nevada (0-5 vs. both UNLV and Nevada). The weather factor (expected to be cold) is probably overrated. Remember Nevada needed to be +5 in turnovers to beat Purdue 34-31 as they were outgained in the game by 115 yards and down 17 in the second half. After three straight TD drives LW, Hawaii was up 28-0 before some turnovers allowed their opponent to hang around. Their QB (Cole McDonald) is the better signal caller here. 8* Hawaii |
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09-28-19 | UNLV +9.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 17-53 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 18 m | Show |
8* UNLV (8:00 ET): Rebels HC Tony Sanchez may be coaching for his job at this point as UNLV has started 1-2 w/ its only win coming against a FCS team (Southern Utah) in the season opener. Sanchez, who was a popular hire due to his success coaching high school in the Las Vegas area, has not been able to get this program off the ground. He's had four losing seasons and a fifth could mean he's heading back to high school. But a bye week may have come at the right time for Sanchez as he's had extra time to prepare for a shaky favorite, Wyoming, who is among the most overrated 3-win teams in the entire country. Take the points. \We called Wyoming the MOST overrated 3-0 team in the country last week as they went to Tulsa. Things were looking good w/ the Cowboys (+3.5) down 17-7 entering the 4Q. But two shocking TD drives later, they were unbelievably up 21-17 and looking like they might overcome a double-digit deficit for a 4th week in a row. Thankfully, Tulsa did end up scoring a TD and won 24-21. But we should have known better than to lay a -3.5. But now the Pokes are favored and that's more to our liking. Again, this team has been outgained in every game this season and is -98.7 YPG overall! That's worse than UNLV, who is -38.7 YPG! Wyoming still does rate better than UNLV, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are calling for here. The last time these Mt West rivals met, it was quite the memorable game w/ UNLV winning 69-66 in 3 OT's back in 2016. The underdog has pulled an outright upset in both meetings during the Sanchez era. The Rebels are 15-7 ATS as road dogs under Sanchez and have covered four of the previous five times they have been getting between 3.5 and 10 points. The bye week allowed for QB Armani Rogers to get healthy and the team is 10-3 ATS when he starts and finishes a game. RB Charles Williams is 2nd in the country in rush yds per game. Wyoming's QB Sean Chambers is completing just 38% of his pass attempts and operating behind a suspect line. With UNLV's next three games against Boise St, Vanderbilt and Fresno State, Sanchez desperately needs a win here or he risks losing his job. Not saying he gets it, but the Rebels will cover. 8* UNLV |
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09-28-19 | Mississippi State +10.5 v. Auburn | Top | 23-56 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 49 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (7:00 ET): Miss State played w/o starting QB Tommy Stevens last week, but there was no dropoff w/ backup Garrett Shrader coming in and completing 17 of his 22 pass attempts. That was good enough to earn SEC Freshman of the Week honors as the Bulldogs beat Kentucky 28-13. We had the Under in that game, a winner in its own right, as the defense had just as much to do w/ the win as Shrader did. The status of the Miss State QB situation is somewhat in question going into this game w/ #7 Auburn, but that's okay as "defense travels" and we like MSU as an underdog. Take the points. Auburn is one of three teams that's started 4-0 ATS. It's probably not coincidental that we're also playing against one of the other two in this 3-game report, that being SMU. Like SMU, the Tigers are off a big upset on the road last week as they went to Texas A&M and demonstrated they were the better football team, winning 28-20 as 4-pt dogs. The game wasn't really that close though as Auburn never trailed and was up 21-3 going into the 4th quarter. They did end up getting outgained though as A&M had three long scoring drives in the 4Q. That was the first big "true" road win for QB Bo Nix as the Tigers now have beaten both Oregon & Texas A&M away from home (Oregon was a neutral site). But let's see how they do in a pretty clear letdown spot, laying more than one score, with a road game at Florida (#9) on deck. It's surprising how few times Auburn has been a home favorite of -7.5 to -10 through the years. But they failed to cover 9 of the last 11 times in the role. No matter who has been the QB, Miss State doesn't get beat big often, unless they are facing Alabama. The Bulldogs did lose to Kansas State earlier in the year, by 7, in Starkville. But Kansas State was probably underrated coming into the year. That was the game starting QB Tommy Stevens got hurt and the difference in the game wound up being a 4Q kick return for a TD by Kansas State. Miss State had the total yards edge in that game. Remember that Auburn easily could have lost the opener to Oregon as they never led until the final 10 seconds. Miss State won this game a year ago, 23-9. They are being undervalued in what is a "sandwich" spot for Auburn. 8* Mississippi State |
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09-28-19 | SMU v. South Florida +8 | Top | 48-21 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 42 m | Show |
8* South Florida (4:00 ET): If you're a regular client, then you may remember how we routinely faded USF down the stretch last year. The Bulls had actually started the year 7-0, but we called them the most overrated team in the country at the time and made our mark by cashing numerous tickets at their expense. They finished the season at 7-6 w/ all six losses coming by double digits against bowl teams. That losing skid bled into this year as the Bulls lost their first two games (Wisconsin, at Georgia Tech) before finally winning two weeks ago, here in Tampa, against South Carolina State. It was the program's first victory in nearly 11 months! Now we're not saying that SMU is as overrated as USF was at this time last year. But the Ponies are in a tricky spot here. Last week saw them go to TCU and come away w/ a 41-38 upset. Not only did they snap a record seven-game losing streak to the Horned Frogs, but it was also the program's first win against a ranked Power 5 opponent since 1986! They were 7.5-point underdogs. Now they have to turn around and lay points on the road, against a rested opponent. The Mustangs are one of three teams in the country to start 4-0 ATS, so they've clearly been undervalued in the early going. Again, we're not saying they are anywhere near as overrated as USF was last year. But in the power ratings, they are the weakest 4-0 SU team in the country right now. Led by QB Shane Buechele, this would be SMU's first 4-0 start since 1984, the "heyday" of the program and before it got the infamous "Death Penalty." A transfer from Texas, it's not shocking to see Buechele thriving in Sonny Dykes' offense as his receiving corps here is actually comparable to what they have right now in Austin! But USF has given SMU fits in the past, taking the previous three meetings including a 24-pt win the last time here in Tampa. SMU may have been able to snap a losing skid against one opponent last week, but that was as an underdog. Both road wins this year have been by 7 pts or less and they're 0-2 ATS as road chalk under Dykes. USF made a QB change for the South Carolina State game w/ redshirt frosh Jordan McCloud replacing senior Blake Barnett. McCloud accounted for five TDs in the win and has now had an extra week of practice. Don't be surprised if USF surprises here. 8* South Florida |
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09-28-19 | Florida Atlantic +1 v. Charlotte | Top | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 48 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (3:30 ET): Unless I'm missing something here, this line is an eye-opener. Last week Clemson HC Dabo Swinney did his best to hype the Charlotte program, but the 52-10 result there tells us that was probably nothing more than "coach-speak." Sure, the 49ers are scoring more this year, averaging 47 PPG against non-Clemson foes. But that includes games vs. Gardner-Webb (FCS) and UMass (who is the worst FBS team in the country). FAU is a team we had bouncing back in 2019 and after taking their lumps the first two games (against Ohio State & UCF), Lane Kiffin's Owls have put up 40+ points in B2B wins. This is a big revenge game for FAU, who lost as 17-pt home favorites to Charlotte in LY's regular season finale (costing them bowl eligibility). Obviously, the line is a LOT more favorable this time around. The road team has actually won all four meetings between these teams. Last year, it was Charlotte kicking a 56 yard FG as time expired for the 27-24 upset. FAU led that game 21-10 at the half and would go on to outgain the 49ers by 112 yards. If losing that game doesn't have the Owls motivated here, then I'm not sure what to say about Kiffin. Two years ago, he came to FAU and engineered a massive turnaround, leading the team to 11 wins. There was a predictable dropoff LY, perhaps more severe than expected, but 2019 should see the Owls return to the top of the C-USA East Division. Meanwhile, Charlotte was picked for last. Yet, look at this line! Doesn't make much sense to me. Charlotte's offense might be "improved," but the defense remains really bad, especially at stopping the run. This is interesting b/c LY the 49ers were Top 10 IN THE COUNTRY against the run, allowing just 105 YPG. But FAU still ran for 187 yards against them. That was w/ Devin Singletary (graduated), but he accounted for less than half the total in LY's game. FAU's run game has dipped w/o Singletary, but they should be able to get on track here against a Charlotte defense allowing over 200 YPG over land. Keep in mind that FAU's YTD rushing total is still severely hampered from facing Ohio State. QB Chris Robison delivered B2B 300+ yd passing games in wins over Ball State and Wagner. Prior to two weeks ago vs. UMass, Charlotte had been favored over a FBS opponent only ONCE in their history! Now look at this line. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame -12 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 52 h 19 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This looks to be the rare time where the public has cooled on the Fighting Irish as they are off yet another loss to a Top 5 opponent, that being Georgia last week. But the Irish certainly played better than they usually do in that spot, losing by only six to a team that is certainly among the four best in the entire country. The idea of a "moral victory" is probably offensive to those in South Bend, but this remains a Top 10 team in the country. But after most of the nation watched them lose such a high-profile game, they aren't going to want to lay double digits w/ them against a fellow ranked foe. Our recommendation is to do it. There is a huge gap between Notre Dame and Virginia, even larger than what the oddsmakers are saying here. Virginia is 4-0 and ranked #18 in the country. However, they may be among the most overrated teams by the pollsters. We don't even have them in our Top 35, let alone the Top 20. Tip your cap to the job done by Bronco Mendenhall here in Charlottesville, but his Cavaliers simply aren't ready to compete w/ a team like Notre Dame quite yet. The Hoos were quite lucky to escape w/ wins against Florida State and Old Dominion the L2 weeks and those games were at home. ODU actually outgained them as Virginia had only 244 yds total. A lot of people were fading them in that spot and for good reason. We faded them vs. Florida State and that looked like it was going to be an outright upset before the Seminoles gave the game away (still covered). Notre Dame has a top 10 defense in terms of efficiency, thus you should look for UVA to struggle again moving the football. Consider that the Cavaliers failed to score until there were only 7 mins left in the 1H vs. Old Dominion. One of their three second half TD's came from the defense. Notre Dame, led by QB Ian Book, also has the edge offensively in this game as it was just two weeks ago they put up 66 points here at home. Yes, that was against New Mexico. But the bottom line is that Virginia is very average both offensively and on special teams. The Irish won't need to score a ton here, but will score enough to win by at least two touchdowns. The only teams they've lost to since the start of last season are: Clemson and Georgia. 8* Notre Dame |
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09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 52 m | Show |
8* Arizona State (10:30 ET): Cal may be 4-0, but I have a hard time believing this is the 15th best team in the country (as they have been labeled by the AP). In my own personal power ratings, I have the Bears outside the Top 40! Yes, they do have two "true" road wins against Washington and Ole Miss, the former of which is a legit top 20 team. But Ole Miss is a team we faded back in Week 1 (at Memphis) and haven't really been impressed w/ ever since. Still, the Rebels offense put up 500+ yards on the heralded Cal defense (after putting up just 173 in the loss to Memphis!) and the Bears needed a goal line stand at the end of the game to preserve a 28-20 win. Cal's resume now includes three wins by eight points or less (including North Texas, who outgained them) and a 2 TD win over a FCS school (Cal Davis). Not convinced that the better team isn't the one getting points here as Arizona State has already gone to Michigan State this year and won outright. Take the points. The key to Cal's resurgence over the last two years has been their defense, which can claim one of the best secondaries in the entire country. But that defense was shredded last week by Ole Miss and the offense in Berkeley remains a huge liability. While they put up 433 total yds last week at Ole Miss, a lot of that came on big passing plays in situations that weren't all too favorable. Somehow QB Chase Garber was able to go 12 of 17 for 245 yds passing on plays where the offense was either 2nd & 7 (or longer), 3rd & 4 (or longer) or 4th down. Let's see him do that again. (Hint: we don't think he'll be able to). Last year, a more experienced Cal offense (10 starters back) could only manage 21.5 PPG. This year's Cal offense returned only four starters. They've yet to score more than 28 pts in any game. Arizona State's defense isn't too shabby either. The Sun Devils had allowed just seven points in each of the first three games en route to a 3-0 start. But they then wound up losing the Pac 12 opener to Colorado 34-31, a game which was pretty even throughout. As I said earlier, the Sun Devils already hold a win in East Lansing. So losing at home to Colorado didn't make much sense, other than it was a "letdown" spot. Herm Edwards has done a much better job in Tempe than most expected and will have his team ready to go here. Including the win over Michigan State, Edwards is now 4-1 ATS as a road dog (the only loss coming LY, ironically to Colorado). He's beaten Michigan State twice now. 8* Arizona State |
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09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The underdog has gone a perfect 3-0 this season on Thursday night. We've been on the dog each of the last two weeks with Bucs upsetting the Panthers and the Jaguars upsetting the Titans. The Eagles certainly hope the underdog trend continues this week as they are 0-3 ATS and more importantly (for them) 1-2 SU. They face a Green Bay team that is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS, but the Pack have hardly been dominant in getting there. The Packers have actually been outgained in all three games and their YPG differential of -41.6 is certainly not what you'd expect from an undefeated team. They were fortunate to be +3 in turnovers LW at home vs. Denver and the week before actually saw them get outgained 7.0 to 4.9 by Minnesota on a per play basis. In a desperate spot for the Eagles, we're going to take the points in this matchup. Coming into the year, we did hail the Packers as being one of the most likely teams in the league to improve on last season's win total. Seeing them win only six times w/ a healthy Aaron Rodgers last year was somewhat shocking. So a coaching change was made (Matt LaFleur replacing Mike McCarthy). LaFleur, a 1st time HC, was supposed to reinvigorate Rodgers. But the offense is just 28th in YPG (286.7 YPG) and are 30th on third downs, converting just 25% of them time. Instead it's been the Packers defense that's been reinvigorated. They have 12 sacks (3rd most) and a league-leading +6 turnover differential. Those numbers are likely to lead most teams to a 3-0 start. But LB Za'Darius Smith just popped up on the injury list Wednesday (knee). We're not convinced this Packers' defense can continue to carry an offense that's playing so poorly. It's also helped that Green Bay's three opponents have all shot themselves in the foot. Meanwhile, the Eagles were the ones shooting themselves in the foot last week vs. Detroit. They allowed a TD on special teams, turned it over twice (leading to six Lions' points) and failed to score after blocking a FG. QB Carson Wentz also didn't have a full compliment of weapons LW as both starting WR's were out as was his TE for most of the game. But both Alshon Jeffrey and Dallas Goebert are expected back Thursday. Philly is scoring more than Green Bay so far, which is another reason to like them plus the points here. As underdogs, the Eagles have covered 9 of the last 13 times, winning eight of those games outright! 10* Philadelphia |
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09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +3.5 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:20 ET): What a difference a week makes in the eyes of the public. The Browns have gone from trendy road favorite to unpopular home dog, which is quite the week to week turnaround in this league. Making the perception all the more head-scratching is how they handled the short-handed Jets Monday night, winning that game 23-3 in dominant fashion. Perhaps some still have a "bad taste" in their mouth from the Browns' first game, which was an ugly 43-13 loss here at home to Tennessee. But that game got away from them late, making the final score at least a little misleading. An underdog for the 1st time here in 2019, we'll grab Cleveland plus the points Sunday night in what shapes us as the franchise's biggest game in years - hosting the defending NFC Champion Rams. Cleveland has done well in the past in this spot. At least recently. They were 4-1 ATS as a home dog last season and are also 4-1 ATS getting four points or less (home or road) w/ Baker Mayfield as the starting QB. They have also won and covered all three primetime games w/ Mayfield as the starter. Again, all trends only go back to last season, but there's no denying that this is a "new Browns team," at least compared to most of the moribund offerings this franchise has provided over the L20 years. Yes, they caught a break Monday night w/ the Jets having to turn to a 3rd string QB. But it hardly appeared as if Trevor Siemian was going to do anything productive before getting hurt. The Browns' defense allowed just 262 yds last week and a lot of that game in "garbage time." They do have some injuries to deal w/ on that side of the ball this week, but can get through it. In particular, look for the Browns to potentially win this game "in the trenches" w/ a talented defensive line going against an inexperienced Rams' O-line. There could be as many as three Rams lineman w/ three or fewer starts on their career resume playing tonight. On offense, QB Baker Mayfield must get rid of the ball quicker. He seems aware of that issue and thus we look for it to get rectified here. The Rams have caught some breaks of their own the first two games, facing an injured Cam Newton and a Saints team that lost Drew Brees to injury. We're not nearly as high on the Rams as the market seems to be. They have not covered three of the previous five times they've been a road fave of -3.5 to -7 points. 10* Cleveland |
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09-22-19 | Jets +22 v. Patriots | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, for the Jets, this is certainly not how you'd draw up the 2019 season. They are 0-2, having blown a 16-pt lead at home vs. Buffalo in Week 1 and are now down to their THIRD string QB after a 23-3 loss to Cleveland Monday night. Now, on a short week, they face the Patriots. The game is in New England where they have not won since 2010's shocking playoff upset, "led" by Mark Sanchez. Luke Falk is now the team's QB as the Jets look for their first regular season win here at Gilette Stadium since 2008! But they don't call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for nothing. It's a historic spread Sunday w/ the Jets getting three touchdowns. Regardless of what teams are involved, this is an automatic take the points situation. NFL underdogs of 21+ points have covered at a 67% rate all-time, going 22-11-2 ATS. Bill Belichick coached Patriots teams have NEVER covered as a favorite of 20 or more points, going 0-4 ATS. They haven't been in this situation since 2011 against the Colts when they won by just a touchdown. While the New England defense has yet to allow a TD this year, resulting in the team outscoring its first two opponents 76-3, they won't be so fortunate to face a team like the Dolphins every week. Note Miami is also getting more than 20 pts this week (at Dallas), making this a VERY unusual week of NFL betting. The reason we'll be taking the Jets and not Miami this week is pretty simple. The Jets are a much better team. Falk probably isn't much of a downgrade from Trevor Siemian and now he'll at least have had practice reps w/ the first team offense. For what it's worth, Falk is 8th on the NCAAF all-time passing yardage list. Covering a spread like this is hard to do in the NFL and it should be noted that the Patriots got TWO defensive touchdowns last week vs. the Dolphins and another from WR Antonio Brown, who is no longer w/ the team. The Jets defense has allowed just 40 points in two games. 8* NY Jets |
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09-21-19 | Nevada v. UTEP +14.5 | Top | 37-21 | Loss | -109 | 52 h 14 m | Show |
8* UTEP (8:00 ET): We won't try and sell you on UTEP being a good team because they are not. But the Miners are off a bye week and getting a good number of points, at home, against an overrated Nevada squad. The Wolf Pack are only averaging 19.7 PPG through three games, so the thought of them laying 2 TD's on the road seems far fetched to us. It is an opening night upset of Purdue, 34-31 as 11-pt home dogs, that has the contingent from Reno overvalued here. The reason they won that game was they were +5 in turnovers, which offset them being outgained by 115 yds in that contest. Since then, the Wolf Pack were "put in their place" with a 77-6 loss to Oregon, then could only beat FCS Weber State by a score of 19-13 last week. Take the points here. Nevada trailed Purdue 24-7 at the half and were down 31-14 halfway through the third quarter. The fact they came back and won that game was a minor miracle. They scored 10 pts in the final minute, including a 56-yard FG w/ no time remaining by a walk-on kicker. Had that comeback not taken place, we'd be looking at a 1-2 team whose only win would be by six points over a FCS opponent. If that were the case, this line probably looks a lot different. The Wolfpack have been a road favorite just twice under HC Jay Norvell (third year here in Reno), both times LY, and they are 0-2 ATS including an outright loss to a terrible San Jose State team. So there is real hope for UTEP here. Now here's the ugly part. UTEP has lost 24 of its last 26 games. The two wins were this year's season opener (vs. FCS Houston Baptist - by two points) and last year against Rice (who we currently rate as the worst team in the FBS). But the good news is we don't need the Miners to win, only cover. Being off a bye is good. Coming into the year, we did think this would be an improved team as they were better last year than their 1-11 SU record showed. This is a spread that belongs in the single digits as Nevada has lost 10 of its last 13 road games. 8* UTEP |
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09-21-19 | Wyoming v. Tulsa -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 48 h 20 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): Wyoming is 3-0 (straight up), but it would be a grave mistake to think those in Laramie should make holiday plans revolving around a New Year's Six Bowl game. Of all the teams still unbeaten across the country, the Cowboys are likely the weakest. That's largely confirmed by the fact they are getting points from 1-2 Tulsa this week. Now, the Golden Hurricane fought valiantly against Oklahoma State last week. They were up 21-20 at the half and would have covered (+14) had it not been for a late TD. We were on them in that spot, a tough loss for sure, but they get it back here against a different (and much weaker) group of Cowboys. Lay the points. Just to reiterate what's already been said about Wyoming's "phony" record, they are 3-0 but have been outgained in all three games. They've had close calls each of the last two weeks against Texas State and Idaho, neither of whom are any good. The Texas State game is one of just two times the Cowboys have won a non-conference roadie under HC Craig Bohl in 10 tries. They did so despite being -151 in total yards and -11 in first downs (lucky!). Interestingly enough, the Pokes were favored in that game (-7.5) and their only other non-conf road win under Bohl (LY vs. New Mexico State). Last week's home victory over FCS Idaho was even tighter (21-16) as Wyoming again overcame an early double-digit deficit and being outgained for the game. Tulsa has already played Michigan State and Oklahoma State, so they aren't likely to be intimidated by an opponent w/ an unbeaten record. Wyoming has actually won seven straight dating back to LY, but it's time for that to end this week. A big problem the Cowboys have is a passing attack which has averaged just 82 yards passing per game w/ a 39.1 completion percentage! Tulsa's rushing numbers are skewed due to how many sacks they gave up in the Michigan State game. The offense has moved the ball pretty well since that time and hasn't turned it over. The Golden Hurricane also have the better defense in this matchup (36th in efficiency). Add it up and you've got what should be an easy win for the home team. 10* Tulsa |
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09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette +3 v. Ohio | Top | 45-25 | Win | 102 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
8* Louisiana (2:00 ET): Sometimes if it's "too good to be true," it often is. Case in point, Ohio U returns to Athens this weekend, reeling, as they are off B2B road losses to Pitt and Marshall. They are laying just a short number at home and one might think this is a good landing spot for Frank Solich's Bobcats to bounce back. But we feel Louisiana is the better team in this matchup as the Ragin Cajuns come in feeling pretty good about themselves following B2B wins where they put up 593 and 748 (!) total yards of offense. Ohio's offense isn't performing up to expectations thus far and this very well could turn into a third consecutive loss for them. Take the points! Ohio was beaten far worse than 20-10 final score showed against Pitt. They barely gained 200 yards in the 20-10 loss and then followed that up w/ a poor defensive effort LW against Marshall where they gave up over 500 total yards. The offense was better there, but this still has to be considered a disappointing start considering QB Nathan Rourke is back. But there were just three other starters back from LY's record-setting offense in Athens. Granted, the Bobcats were underdogs in both losses, but we have our concerns w/ them being favored here as the defense has struggled to stop opponents through the air and on the ground. The Louisiana offense ranks 4th nationally in first downs. Ohio is also on a three-game losing streak to Sun Belt teams, including two bowl losses. Louisiana played for the SBC Championship last year and should exploit the Bobcats' suspect rush defense. The Ragin Cajuns have gone over 400+ yards rushing each of the last two weeks, admittedly against weaker competition, but Ohio also just allowed 300+ yds on the ground to Marshall last week. Louisiana returned its top three rushers from LY, so it's no surprise they have found so much success on the ground this year. This team hung tough against Mississippi State in the season opener, losing by only 10 points despite five turnovers and even ran for 164 yds against what was one of the top defenses in the country last year. 8* Louisiana |
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09-21-19 | UL-Monroe +19 v. Iowa State | Top | 20-72 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
8* UL Monroe (12:00 ET): Both teams are coming off one-point losses here. However, the situation is not entirely identical. UL Monroe has had a week off to recover from its 45-44 overtime loss at Florida State. Iowa State, who had its bye two weeks ago, now needs to find a way to quickly recover from losing to Iowa last Saturday. That's going to be tough to do, given the nature of the defeat and the fact it was the fifth straight time they lost to their in-state rival. Laying a big number in this spot makes the Cyclones an attractive fade too as UL Monroe has already proven it can hang w/ a P5 opponent. Take the points. Iowa State has to be demoralized about losing to Iowa. Not just because they had an extra week to prepare, but also the manner in which they lost. They outgained the Hawkeyes by 105 yards, but two turnovers proved costly, especially the second one which was a muffed punt in the final two minutes. That came after the offense had turned the ball over on downs in Iowa territory its previous drive. Scoring only 17 points on a Hawkeyes' defense that was very beat up in the secondary has to be very disappointing as well. Keep in mind the Cyclones needed OT to get by Northern Iowa, a FCS team, in their opening game. I feel that this is an overrated team, ripe for the picking right now. They've failed to cover five of the last six times they were favored here in Ames, all five ATS losses coming as DD favorites. UL Monroe has to like the spot that they are in as they had no problems covering a similar spread against Florida State. Yes, the Seminoles have their issues right now, but the Warhawks led them in the 4th quarter. They lost b/c of a missed extra point in OT. Kicking issue aside, this is one of the most experienced teams in the entire country and they've previously beaten six P5 opponents. Offensively, they are led by QB Evans and RB Johnson, the latter of which went for 126 yards on 26 carries vs. FSU. The UL Monroe rush defense is an area of concern, but fortunately for them ISU has struggled to run the ball effectively so far (just 91 yds vs. Iowa) as they badly miss David Montgomery, who is now in the NFL. 8* UL Monroe |
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09-21-19 | Western Michigan +5 v. Syracuse | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 29 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (12:00 ET): Really tough spot for Syracuse here as they are off a deflating 41-6 loss to Clemson last week where they were thoroughly outclassed just as they were by Maryland the week prior in a 63-20 loss. The defense was torched for a combined 1,262 yards in the two losses, which is certainly NOT what you want to see out of a favorite in any situation. While favored at the Carrier Dome this week, the Orange will be up against yet another opponent that is superior on the offensive side of the ball and you should expect WMU QB Jon Wassink to have a big day here. Syracuse is nothing close to the team they fielded last year as losing QB Dungy (school's all-time passing leader) is something they are still trying to overcome. Take the points. Dungy's replacement is Tommy DeVito, who has not played well to this point. DeVito is bottom 20 nationally in QBR and has more interceptions (4) than TD passes (3). Of course, DeVito's play is largely irrelevant when the Orange defense has played so poorly. They allowed a frightening 8.6 yards per play LW vs. Clemson. Obviously, the Tigers are as good as it gets, but Western Michigan is going to be able to move the ball here as well. Last year, the Broncos hung 42 points (in a losing effort) on the 'Cuse defense in the season opener at Kalamazoo. I'm sure they haven't forgotten and the fact this is a revenge game makes the spot even sweeter for the underdog. The Broncos put 57 points and nearly 700 total yards on the board last week vs. Georgia State, so that's even more evidence that they should score plenty here. The week prior saw them stymied at Michigan State, but that's as good a defense as they'll see all year. Wassink is in his third year as the starter here and is 13-1 SU vs. non-P5 teams. That record obviously doesn't apply here vs. an ACC opponent, but it's still worth mentioning. Wassink is also Top 10 in the country in QBR right now. With Syracuse now 1-6 ATS following a SU loss, the underdog is the play here (plus the points) as WMU can absolutely take this game outright. 8* Western Michigan |
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09-20-19 | Utah v. USC +4.5 | Top | 23-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
10* USC (9:00 ET): These Pac 12 South rivals already have a common opponent and that's BYU. Each team had to go to Provo and both were listed as a 5-point favorite. Utah won their game, 30-12, while USC lost outright 30-27. So the Utes should be the obvious call here, right? (Especially seeing as we had them in the win over BYU). "Not so fast, my friend!" An interesting tidbit from those games is that the two teams averaged a near identical number of yards per play (5.75 vs. 5.72). Southern Cal may have lost, but did so in overtime. They also led in the 4th quarter, but ultimately could not overcome a -3 turnover differential. (Note: Utah was +3 in TO's in its game vs. BYU). With the home team having covered seven of eight matchups since Utah became a Pac 12 member, we'll take the points w/ the Trojans. With Southern Cal having lost QB J.T. Daniels to a season-ending ACL injury (in the 1st game), one would naturally think Utah has the edge offensively coming into this one. I'm not so sure that's the case. Even with QB Huntley and RB Moss returning, the Utes aren't likely to put up a ton of points on a consistent basis as they play at a very slow pace. USC has found a replacement for Daniels in freshman Kedon Slovis, who completed 28 of 33 pass attempts for 377 yards in the 45-20 win over Stanford, which was the last time the Trojans played at the Coliseum. Slovis wasn't quite as effective last week in his first career road start, but still completed 24 of 34 passes for 281 yards. Don't think Utah will simply be able to "outscore" USC in this one. I mentioned earlier that the home team is on a 7-1 ATS run in this rivalry. That also includes six straight wins by an average of 9 PPG. Our numbers actually indicate USC should be slightly favored here, even though Utah has covered the last three matchups, including a one-point loss here in LA two years ago. But the Utes have not won straight up at the Coliseum since 1916! Trojans HC Clay Helton has not been good as underdog in the past and his seat will only get warmer were his team to lose again this week. He's got road games at Washington and Notre Dame on deck, so expect an "all hands on deck" approach to this Friday night home game. 10* USC |
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09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars +2 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for home field advantage in these Thursday night NFL games. The road team has pulled an upset each of the first two weeks w/ Green Bay beating Chicago and Tampa Bay beating Carolina. But if an upset were to happen for a third straight time to open the season, this time it would be by the home team. Jacksonville comes in as a short home dog as they are 0-2 on the season following losses to Kansas City and Houston, both of whom were division winners last year. Something else to consider is that the Jags have been swept each of the last two years by the Titans. They will come into this game highly motivated and are our choice. Take the points. One of the big mistakes we made last week was overrating Tennessee's Week 1 performance in Cleveland. Sure, the Titans won that game 43-13. But they were only up two points late in the 3Q before the Browns imploded. Tennessee was actually outgained in that contest (346-339), but was fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. They are now +5 in turnovers on the season, but lost LW to the Colts 19-17. Truth be told, we were NOT high on Tennessee this year, but chose to take them last week as it seemed all the stars had aligned w/ the other three AFC South teams all losing in Week 1 and two of them seemingly having serious issues at the QB position. That line of thinking was obviously a mistake. Losing Nick Foles to a broken clavicle in Week 1 seemed like a death blow to the Jaguars' 2019 season. But backup Gardner Minshew II seems like he'll be a capable replacement. So far, Minshew has completed almost 70% of his pass attempts and he very nearly pulled off a comeback in Houston last week. (The Jags lost that game 13-12 as HC Doug Marrone elected to go for two and the win instead of kicking the extra point and forcing OT.) Moving forward, Tennessee probably isn't going to be as fortunate w/ turnovers as they've been the first two games. Even though he has asked to be traded, Jags DB Jalen Ramsey is going to play tonight. Don't be surprised if he has a good game and it's the Jags forcing some TO's against often error-prone Titans QB Marcus Mariota. It's a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags Thursday night. We'll back 'em. 10* Jacksonville |
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09-16-19 | Browns v. Jets +7 | Top | 23-3 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:20 ET): The Jets would certainly appear "up against it" here as starting QB Sam Darnold is out (mono) and will miss a significant period of time. They also have injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well. But in a battle of desperate 0-1 team, taking the points still seems like the logical way to go here, especially the in the wake of the line move when it was announced Darnold would be out. As we saw last week in a 43-13 home loss to the Titans, Cleveland may very well be overhyped. There's a lot of pressure here on a team that hasn't been a road favorite of more than five points since Bill Belichick coached here in 1995. Take the points. Speaking of former Browns' coaches, Gregg Williams guided the team to a 5-3 (SU) finish LY, which played a major role in the team getting so much attention in the offseason. Williams is now the DC for the Jets and finds himself in the headlines this week, not just b/c he's facing his former team. New Browns WR Odell Beckham Jr called Williams out for instructing his players to "injure" him in a 2017 preseason game (when OBJ was w/ the Giants and Williams was DC in Cleveland). This is probably much ado about nothing, but Williams being the Jets' DC now does give his team somewhat of an edge as he certainly knows the Browns' tendencies on offense. Even short-handed, look for the Jets defense to play well Monday night. As for the offense, the Jets should lean heavily on Le'Veon Bell, who had a nice return LW w/ 92 total yards on 23 touches. Bell did have a MRI Wednesday (shoulder) but checked out. The Jets should have won Week 1 at home vs. Buffalo as they were gifted a +4 TO margin in the 1H, but blew a 16-0 lead. Speaking of turnovers, Cleveland imploded in the 4Q LW vs. Tennessee w/ Baker Mayfield tossing three picks. They went from down 15-13 late in the third to 43-13 by the end of the game. It probably wasn't as bad as the final scored showed, but I come back to the fact that the Browns being favored on the road (let alone by this much) still doesn't "feel right." They've failed to cover four of the previous five times they've been favored (were -5.5 LW), losing three of those games outright. 10* NY Jets |
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09-15-19 | Colts v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 14 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): When handicapping the NFL, one must be careful to not overreact to single game or week. Case in point, we were not particularly high on the Titans coming into the year. But it's hard to disregard just how well things "broke" for Tennessee in Week 1. Not only did they go out on the road and destroy a clearly overhyped Cleveland team, 43-13, but look at what's going on in the rest of their division (AFC South). The other three teams lost and two of them (Indy, Jacksonville) now have serious issues at QB. Honestly, right now, it's hard NOT to make Tennessee the favorite to win the AFC South. The Colts are still trying to get over the shock of Andrew Luck's sudden retirement last month. Certainly, they can expect little sympathy from any future opponent. But especially Tennessee, who Luck tormented for the better part of this decade. Luck was drafted in 2012. Since that time, the Colts are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS vs. the Titans. Even that record is misleading though. Both Tennessee SU victories came in 2017, the year Luck missed due to injury. With Luck out of the picture, the Titans know that now is the time to seize the reigns of the division. Here, they are getting the Colts in the second of B2B road games, which is a tricky spot to open the year. Since 2015, teams that open the season w/ B2B road games have gone a money-burning 1-14 ATS, losing by almost 8.5 points per game. Meanwhile, this is Tennessee's home opener. They've gone 12-4 SU in Nashville the past two seasons and come in with plenty of confidence after last week's strong effort on the road where they appeared strong on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis fought valiantly against the Chargers in Week 1, but ultimately came up short in OT. Jacoby Brissett has been thrust into the starting QB role and ironically he was the starter for both losses two years ago to the Titans. Also of concern in Indy is kicker Adam Vinateri, who missed three kicks Sunday, essentially costing his team the game. Love the spot here for the Titans as they aren't going to pass on an opportunity to kick the Colts while they're down. 10* Tennessee |
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09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -104 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Teams that start 1-0 typically have difficulty sustaining "momentum" (I'll always hate that word!) when they have to hit the road in Week 2, going a money-burning 5-18 ATS in that role since 2016. Taking it a step further, when the team is playing the second of B2B road games to open the year, they are 1-14 ATS (since '15), losing by an average of 8.4 PPG. Now this particular situation is a bit unique w/ Buffalo as they're actually playing in MetLife Stadium for a second consecutive week! They came back to beat the Jets last week, 17-16, erasing a 16-0 hole they'd dug themselves thanks to FOUR 1st half turnovers. But I can't see them pulling off the "New York sweep" here as I remain bearish on their 2019 fortune. The Giants weren't as lucky as the Bills in Week 1 as they ran into a revamped Cowboys offense and got blown out 35-17. The way they defended Dallas' new RPO-heavy look was reminiscent of something you'd probably see in a backyard football game! But the good news is that the Bills don't have the same level of talent as the Cowboys. Also interesting is that the Giants' offense actually gained 470 total yards last week (7.2 yards per play!), exactly 100 more than the Bills did in their victory. The disparate results boiled down to efficiency, particularly in the red zone where the G-Men failed to score at all in two of their four chances. It is important to remember that the Bills trailed the Jets 16-0 midway through the third quarter last week. At the time, QB Josh Allen had already turned the ball over four times (2 INTs/2 fumbles) and the offense had just 155 total yards. But incredibly, they would more than double that yardage total on the next three drives, scoring 17 points and pulling off a shocking comeback. Really, the Bills had no business winning that game. They also benefited from two missed Jets' kicks, an extra point and a field goal. Eli Manning is 7-0-1 ATS as a dog vs. the AFC East in his career, including a couple of memorable Super Bowl upsets you "may" remember. 8* NY Giants |
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09-15-19 | 49ers +1.5 v. Bengals | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (1:00 ET): Interestingly enough, the same trend we cited as a reason to fade Buffalo is applicable here to the 49ers. They too opened their season w/ an "ugly" road win, beating the Buccaneers 31-17 despite being outgained. So what's the difference here w/ the Niners? Well, in the interest of full disclosure, I'm a lot higher on them than the market seems to be right now! My own personal power ratings have them as a field goal favorite for this game, which is against what I feel is one of the worst teams in the league, Cincinnati. Buck the trend here as the 49ers "shock the world" and open their season w/ B2B road wins out East! The Bengals turned in a game effort LW in Seattle, outgaining the Seahawks 429-232, but still coming up a point short (lost 21-20). I think a lot of people are going to see how close that game was and get fooled into thinking Cincy might be some kind of a threat on a weekly basis. Don't fall into that trap. While the Bengals should be commended for staying close in a game few, if any, expected them to win (they closed +9), I don't see this team winning very many games in 2019. They have a 1st year HC (Zac Taylor) who inherited a roster that peaked several years ago. I'm not convinced the "improvements" we saw on both sides of the ball LW are any sign of things to come. Meanwhile, all of my key indicators are pointing up for San Francisco this season. Last year, the team was dead last in turnover margin at -25 as they took the ball away only SEVEN times the entire season (including just TWO INT's)! That's a number that has a way of reverting back to the mean (league average), year to year. Already there are encouraging signs in that department as the Niners picked off THREE passes last week alone (see how that works?) and returned two for touchdowns! On offense, QB Jimmy Garoppolo is back and while his numbers from LW left a lot to be desired, note the Niners offense had TWO touchdowns negated due to penalties. To offset the travel, the team decided to stay out East this week and practice in Ohio. Smart move. Yes, they have injuries at RB, but so do the Bengals w/ Joe Mixon out. I look for the Niners to pull out a close one here. 8* San Francisco |
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09-14-19 | Florida State +8 v. Virginia | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:30 ET): It's "put up or shut up" time for Willie Taggart and Florida State. The Seminoles were supposed to be improved in 2019 after going 5-7 SU LY, their 1st losing season since 1976! But so far, there hasn't been much sign of that. It started w/ an outright loss to Boise State in Week 1, a spot where we faded the 'Noles as the circumstances surrounding that game (date/time change due to Hurricane Dorian) made it seem like a real "leap of faith" (at least in our eyes) that they should be laying so many points. Still, even though we were on Boise State, we were stunned to see them shut out FSU in the 2H and come back from a DD deficit. It almost went from bad to worse LW against LA Monroe, but the 'Noles were able to escape with a 45-44 OT win. Virginia now seems to be the trendy pick to win the ACC Coastal (FSU is in the Atlantic w/ Clemson), which seems wide open now w/ Miami off to an 0-2 start. The Cavaliers won 8 games LY, their most in a season since 2011. They've already won conference game, opening the year by beating Pitt on the road, 30-14 (were 2.5-pt chalk). It was an even easier time LW w/ FCS William & Mary as the Hoos prevailed 52-17. Yet it sure is odd to see Virginia favored over Florida State. It's been decades since that was the case. Remember LY they were favored at Va Tech (who they still haven't beaten in 15 years) and lost the game outright. Maybe there is a changing of the landscape in the ACC, but it's tough to ignore the fact Florida State is 14-3 SU its L17 meetings vs. Virginia w/ all but one of the wins coming by double digits. The average margin of victory has been 24.6 PPG. While the pressure is definitely on Taggart in Tallahassee, the Seminoles have led their two games 31-19 and 24-7 at the half. Now they're underdogs for the 1st time. There won't be any kind of second half letdown this time and we're taking the points. 8* Florida State |
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09-14-19 | Kent State v. Auburn -35 | Top | 16-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
8* Auburn (7:00 ET): Kent State is going to be very bad this year. You may already guessed or even know that, but it is essential to this play. The bottom of the MAC just isn't ready to be competitive on a national platform such as this. We saw an example of that last week with our play on Wisconsin, who annihilated Central Michigan 61-0. Well, Auburn is probably every bit as good as Wisconsin and even though both games saw them fail to score enough points to even cover this spread, look for this to be the Tigers' coming out party. Lay the big number. Ironically, Kent State's QB Woody Barrett is an Auburn transfer. Perhaps it will be nice for Barrett to see some of his former teammates, but once the game gets going he may very well regret his decision to change sides. The Golden Flashes have yet to do much offensively as they put up only 200 total yards in the season-opening 30-7 loss to Arizona State. But losing that game was to be expected as they were 24-pt road dogs. Ironically, in victory last week, they may have been even less impressive. They needed OT to get by FCS Kennesaw State 26-23. Kent was only a 4.5-pt favorite in the game, which says a lot about the state of the program, and needed a late FG just to force OT. They were outgained by 100 yards (-7 FD's) and Kennesaw State is hardly a top tier FCS school. The jump in class here is about as steep as it gets for the Golden Flashes. Auburn had the "miracle" win to start the year over Oregon and then a less than stellar showing last week vs. Tulane. They will be looking for that proverbial "pound of flesh" and Kent State happens to be an ideal candidate. The Flashes are 0-14 SU all-time vs. the SEC, losing by an average of 37 PPG. They have allowed an average of 211 rush yards the first two games, which means this is the spot where the Auburn offense finally gets going. They can name the score here as they get ready for the SEC gauntlet. 8* Auburn |
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09-14-19 | Iowa -1 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Push | 0 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
10* Iowa (4:00 ET): I know that Iowa State is at home, off a bye and hasn't beaten Iowa in five years. But they're going to have to wait at least another year in Ames to hold the "coveted" Cy-Hawk Trophy. We were on Iowa in this matchup last year and they came through w/ an "ugly" 13-3 win in Iowa City. They're better in 2019 while you can't say the same for Iowa State. Look for no further than the Cyclones nearly losing the opener two weeks ago to FCS Northern Iowa, needing triple overtime to get by 29-26 as 20.5-point favorites. Now they take on the premier program in the state. Lay the points. Iowa is 2-0 w/ wins over Miami OH (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). I thought last week's Big 10 opener couldn't have gone much better. What promises to be a good defense held the Scarlet Knights to just 125 total yards and two of the last three years they've held ISU to just a field goal. Remember that for LY's game, Iowa State was also off a bye, an unexpected one, as their season opener vs. South Dakota State had been cancelled. The Hawkeyes have won nine straight non-conference games, going 6-3 ATS in the process. They are also 17-2 SU their L19 games as a favorite, going 12-6-1 ATS. That includes 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS on the road. Perhaps the best news for Iowa coming into this year's matchup though is how their number of yards per play on offense is up significantly - from 5.44 to 6.27. I've seen a lot of people talk about how Iowa will struggle to run the ball in this game. Well, how about the other side of that equation? Iowa State ran for only 25 yards on 19 carries in LY's game and that was w/ David Montgomery as RB. Montgomery is now off to the NFL and Iowa's defense has allowed just 143 yards rushing - total - in its two games. While ISU's win over Northern Iowa was their seventh in a row at home (tying a school record), it was ugly as they could score only one TD in regulation. Both teams came into the year ranked, but only one (Iowa obviously) deserved to be and they deserve to be far bigger favorite for this rivalry matchup. 10* Iowa |
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09-14-19 | Arizona State v. Michigan State -14 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 23 m | Show |
8* Michigan State (4:00 ET): The Big 10 would appear to be quite loaded this year. I've got six teams in my Top 20. We're already playing one of them (Penn State) elsewhere in the 3-pack and here we'll also be laying double digits w/ another conference power, that being Michigan State. Sure, this play "smells" awfully similar to last week's misfire w/ Washington over Cal. It's a revenge spot for the favorite, but with one significant caveat. In this instance, the underdog (Arizona State) is traveling cross-country. We took the Sun Devils in LY's meeting, but not here. Lay the points. When Herm Edwards was hired to the coach at Arizona State, the jury was definitely out. But, ironically, it was the win over Michigan State in the 2nd week of last year that silenced the doubters. As mentioned, we were on ASU in that game as it was a late night start in hot Tempe. Edwards hired a good coaching staff around him, but a big difference between this year and last is the personnel on the field. Last year, it was a multi-year starter at QB (Manny Wilkins) throwing to one of the top receivers in the country (N'Keal Henry). Both are gone and this time the Sun Devils have a true frosh (Jayden Daniels) making his first career road start. The early returns on this ASU offense haven't been great as they've put up just 49 points against Kent State and Sacramento State. Last week's lone TD came w/ just 4:42 remaining on a 72-yard pass play. By the way, the Sun Devils' offensive line has been shaky as well. Of course, it wasn't necessarily the offense that won the game for ASU last year. It was a 16-13 game where the defense held Sparty to just 2.3 YPC. But Michigan State didn't have much trouble moving the ball, by land or through the air, last week against Western Michigan. They rolled up 582 total yards in the 51-17 win, including 251 on the ground. Remember that Michigan State was really hurt by injuries last year and easily could have finished better than 7-6. They're a much more experienced group this year and get revenge against Arizona State here. 8* Michigan State |
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09-14-19 | Oklahoma State v. Tulsa +14.5 | Top | 40-21 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 19 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (3:30 ET): We've already seen Oklahoma State cover one double digit spread on the road as they went to Corvallis to open the season and beat Oregon State 52-36 as 13.5-pt chalk. But w/ this defense, we're not sure they're built to do that very often. The Pokes will be improved in 2019 after a string of 10-win seasons (three in a row) was broken last year (went 7-6) due to a bunch of upsets. They have beaten Tulsa all three times under Gundy by an average of 33 PPG. But this Tulsa team is a bit better and that Cowboys defense remains suspect. This is also Tulsa's home opener. Take the points. Oklahoma State also has some bigger fish to fry, namely next week's Big 12 opener in Austin. That's a game that's been decided by a field goal three of the last four years (all OSU wins). But for Tulsa, this is an in-state rivalry they'll treat w/ the utmost importance. For Oklahoma State, it's hardly Bedlam. I mentioned earlier that Tulsa is 0-3 vs. Gundy-led OSU teams and none of the games have been particularly close. Well, this is the Cowboys first trip East since 2011. It's a big deal for the Golden Hurricane. This is an experienced team w/ an underrated defense that played a lot of good teams close last year, including Texas, whom they only lost to by 7 (as 22-pt dogs) in Austin. Tulsa has already played Michigan State, who they lost to 28-7 in Week 1. While the Golden Hurricane were held to a frighteningly low yardage total (just 80 due to sacks!), that was an odd game. Michigan State scored five times in the second quarter, but one was a defensive TD and another was a safety. The three offensive scores, all field goals, came on drives that totaled ZERO yards. So Tulsa's D really did a good job against a superior opponent. Last week, they blew out San Jose State 34-16 w/ 539 total yds as they discovered the run game. In two games, Oklahoma State's defense has yielded an average of 164 rush YPG. Look for this to be a surprisingly close game. 10* Tulsa |
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09-14-19 | Pittsburgh v. Penn State -17 | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 0 m | Show |
8* Penn State (12:00 ET): It's only been two games, but it's hard not to like what James Franklin and Penn State are doing. The metrics sure do love them as the Nittany Lions have outscored their two opponents 124-20. Sure, one opponent was an FCS school (Idaho) and they started slow last week against Buffalo (trailed 10-7 at halftime!). But when you start slow and still win 45-13, covering a 31-point spot to boot, that probably means you're a pretty talented football team. And talented in precisely what PSU is. I'll gladly lay the points in this Noon ET kickoff in Happy Valley. Pitt is coming off a pretty dominant 20-10 win over Ohio last Saturday in what was a really early kick (11 AM local time). The Panthers did finish w/ more than a 2:1 edge in total yards (481-212), but it's obviously a big step up in class this week as they hit the road to face a Power 5 opponent. It's a step up in class they haven't been able to handle under HC Pat Narduzzi as they're 0-3 ATS the L3 years, losing by a combined 64 pts in the previous two. In its last four games vs. P5 opponents, Pitt has scored a grand total of just 40 points. They have more turnovers (6) than touchdowns (4) in those games and have failed to gain a first down on half of their drives! That futile run against P5 opponents, including the season-opening loss to Virginia where the Panthers could only muster 14 pts and were completely shutout in the second half. It's a better defense that they'll be facing here and Franklin isn't shy about "pouring it on" late either. Penn State is 22-3 SU its last 25 games and has covered the spread in 16 of those games. They are also 12-4 ATS the L16 games at Beaver Stadium. Last year, this game was 51-6 and that was in Pittsburgh. It certainly doesn't help that the Panthers are banged up along the defensive line going into this matchup. 8* Penn State |
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09-14-19 | Arkansas State +33.5 v. Georgia | Top | 0-55 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 33 m | Show |
8* Arkansas State (12:00 ET): Going against #3 Georgia might sound like a risky proposition, however, might the Bulldogs be a bit "sleepy" in this early kickoff Saturday in Athens? They've got a much bigger game on deck (Notre Dame) next Saturday and certainly the players are feeling pretty good about themselves right now following wins over Vandy (30-6) and Murray State (63-17) to start the season. We're obviously getting a lot of points in this matchup and that scenario hasn't exactly treated UGA well under Kirby Smart as he's just 7-11 ATS as a home favorite, including 2-5 ATS vs. Group of Five teams. Georgia has also failed to cover four of the last five times it's been asked to lay 31 or more. Take the points. Arkansas State is off a highly emotional win as their HC Blake Anderson surprised the team by showing up before the game. Anderson had been on leave due to his wife, Wendy, passing away from cancer last month. Right from the kickoff, the Red Wolves played inspired football in Las Vegas, crushing UNLV 43-17. It was their first win of the year after losing under interim HC David Duggan to SMU the previous week, 37-30. That loss no longer looks like a reason for the Red Wolves to hang their heads, however, especially with the difference in the game being a kick return for touchdown. SMU just clobbered North Texas, so they might be a better football team than most realize. Arkansas State is obviously going to be driven by emotion the rest of the season. HC Anderson is now back with the team. Even the Georgia program has decided to honor Wendy's passing by announcing a a "pink-out" for Saturday's game. I just can't see ASU being blown out here, at least not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. Last year, the Red Wolves hung nearly 400 total yards on Alabama's defense, a game which will have them better prepared for what they face here. We saw what the offense could do last week and in two games, they have scored 73 points. They'll score enough here to cover the generous number. 8* Arkansas State |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina +3 v. Wake Forest | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -106 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (6:00 ET): Who says "you can't go back home again?" Mack Brown is back in Chapel Hill and North Carolina is 2-0 SU/ATS after opening the season w/ B2B upsets over South Carolina and Miami. Now, for the first time since Brown's return, I'm ready to proclaim the Tar Heels as being the better team GOING INTO the matchup as this week they face Wake Forest. Yes, the game takes place in Winston-Salem but this Demon-Deacons team appears overrated. Starting a season w/ three consecutive upsets is rare, but not unprecedented. Take the points. In an odd quirk, this is actually NOT an ACC game even though both schools hail from that particular conference. Because of the size of the ACC (14 teams) and that they aren't in the same division, the schools decided to renew their rivalry on their own. Good for them. The home team has won four straight w/ UNC's 50-14 triumph in 2015 being the last meeting. But during his previous tenure (1988-97), Brown feasted on his in-state rivals, winning the last 16 such games. I don't think there's any denying that Brown has this program pointed back in the right direction. The Tar Heels were going to be improved this year no matter who the coach was (lost five games LY by 7 pts or less), but it's looking like Brown was the right man for the job. Both teams have had their fair share of close calls so far. North Carolina's two wins have come by a total of seven points and both saw them rally late in the 4Q. They did finish w/ a 483-270 edge in total yds against South Carolina despite being down 20-9 entering the fourth. Wake Forest barely escaped Utah State in Week 1, winning on a late Kendall Hinton TD. But the WR is now injured and out. Last week against Rice, the Demon Deacons didn't pull away until late and actually had fewer first downs than the Owls. The Tar Heels were a lot better than their 5-19 SU record the L2 seasons and Brown clearly has them trending in the right direction. My power ratings indicate they should be FAVORED here. 8* North Carolina |
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09-12-19 | Bucs +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): Both teams are coming off Week 1 losses here. The Buccaneers could have beaten San Francisco, but instead lost 31-17 in a game where two Jameis Winston interceptions were returned for touchdowns. It was a very sloppy game that saw three total touchdowns scored by the defense (one by TB) and FIVE nullified due to penalties. Meanwhile, don't be fooled by the closeness of Carolina's 30-27 loss to the Rams at home. They never led and were down double digits most of the way. Both teams desperately want to avoid an 0-2 hole and I think this is far too many points to lay on a short week for Carolina. Go w/ the dog. I had BOTH of these teams improving this year. One week in, they each have some work to do. I outlined the Panthers' path for improvement in my analysis last week. It had a lot to do w/ their record in close games over the L2 seasons. Two years ago, they were quite good in them. Last year, not so much. Well, last week's result definitely mirrored the second half of last season as they dropped to 0-6 their L6 games decided by seven points or less. But the reality is they were lucky to even finish that close as they punched in a garbage time TD in the final two minutes to make it 30-27. Going back to last season, a big issue w/ the offense has been Cam Newton's failure to "go deep." His longest completion in Wk 1 went for only 17 yds and he only attempted one pass of 20+ yds. Ultimately, I think Bruce Arians will have the Bucs improved. Whether or not he has the right pieces right now is up for debate. But the Bucs offense, which did gain a ton of yds last year, should have been better in Week 1. A lot of that falls on Winston and the interceptions. Look for him to clean up those mistakes here. The Bucs' defense did its job week, holding the 49ers to just 256 total yards. In the end, I view the market as being too one-sided on this matchup as the underdog is going to be every bit as desperate as the favorite. 10* Tampa Bay |
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09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 78 h 55 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (4:25 ET): This is a matchup where we are markedly higher on one team and markedly lower on the other. On paper, it's easy to understand why so many are writing off the Giants in 2019. They went 5-11 last season, lost WR Odell Beckham Jr in the offseason and made a questionable 1st round draft pick (QB Daniel Jones out of Duke). But this team wasn't as bad as you might think last season as they finished middle of the pack in DVOA and were only outscored by 43 points. The fact they lost eight games by 7 pts or less (most in the league) signals they may have actually been more unlucky than bad. Dallas was certainly more lucky than good last year. They went 10-6 SU and won the division despite only outscoring opponents by 15 pts over the course of the season. To put that point differential in its proper perspective, note that the other three division winners in the NFC were all +138 or better! Things really changed for the better after a mid-season trade for WR Amari Cooper. But it was not Cooper, nor the exploits of any one individual player that drove the Cowboys' success. Rather, it was a 9-2 record in games decided by 7 pts or less. That includes a perfect 7-0 after the Cooper trade, all those wins coming in the final nine weeks. Just once did the Cowboys win a game by more than eight points all year! The running back position is likely to be spotlighted in this matchup. With Beckham gone, the Giants are likely to lean heavily on second year RB Saquon Barkley, who had an outstanding rookie year. Dallas' bellcow Ezekiel Elliott just signed this week and there's no way he'll be in "game shape." Throw in the likely change these teams are going to experience this year in close games and you can smell an upset here. The G-Men also will be motivated by revenge as they've been swept the last two years by the Cowboys. The Giants have covered 11 of their last 16 road games. 10* NY Giants |
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09-08-19 | Bills v. Jets -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -100 | 75 h 33 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): So, we're higher on the Jets than most are for this season. We see a team that has plenty of room to improve, and should given that they finished LY 1-5 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less and w/ a -10 turnover differential. They have one of the worst Pythagorean win differentials (-1.3) as well, signaling that they were a lot better team than what you'd think w/ a 4-12 SU finish. QB Sam Darnold actually played a lot better in the 2nd half of his rookie season as his TD-INT ratio in the L4 games was 6-1. The offense adds RB Le'Veon Bell, who is fresh after sitting out all of last season and there's a new HC (Adam Gase) to preside over it all. Most are going to view these two AFC East rivals as being pretty even coming into 2019. But while we're high on the Jets, the same cannot be said for Buffalo. They did have two more wins than the Jets LY, but the two teams finished w/ nearly identical point differentials. We remain unsold on 2nd year QB Josh Allen as well. His 53% completion rate was worst in the league last year. Remember that it was at this time last year, many (us included) were projecting the Bills to be the worst team in football. They surprised in going 6-10 SU, but don't let that fool you into thinking they'll be improved for this year. Unlike the Jets, there were no substantive additions made on either side of the ball for the Bills, or on the coaching staff for that matter. The offense was actually quite bad last year and we don't think the defense is going to be as good this year. If we're right about the Jets, then it means beating the Bills at home. These teams split last year, but each time the road team won. The Bills' defense gave up 200+ rush yards in three games last season. So Bell could have a big debut here for the Jets. Buffalo has won just 5 of its last 17 road games and is 7-16 SU as an underdog. Lay the short number. 10* NY Jets |
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09-08-19 | Rams v. Panthers +2.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 4 h 15 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): All the key metrics indicate that the Panthers will be an improved team in 2019. Ironically, it was at this time last year, we were proclaiming they were set to regress. The 2017 team that made the playoffs (went 11-5 SU overall) did so on the strength of a 7-2 record in one-score games and that was unsustainable. Now, for awhile there, our calls for regression looked foolish as the Panthers started last year 6-2. But, it turned out we were right as they lost their next seven games (five of them by 7 pts or less) and missed the playoffs altogether. Now, for many of the same reasons we said they'd regress last year, we believe they'll improve this year. Under HC Ron Rivera, the Panthers have a habit of having bounce back years w/ their record in "close games" almost being like a yo-yo year to year. Sean McVay has transformed the Rams into one of the league's real powerhouses the last two seasons. They made it all the way to the Super Bowl last year, but chose a most inopportune time to have their worst offensive game under McVay. The Patriots held them to 260 total yards and three points in an ugly game. What New England did that day will be studied and borrowed by all future Rams' opponents. One thing we know is certain and that's LA won't be repeating LY's 7-1 record in close games (sound familiar?), which happened to be a league best. It will also be challenging to match LY's +11 turnover differential as well. So, with one team set to improve and the other set to regress, our call on this one is pretty easy. Cam Newton wasn't healthy down the stretch for the Panthers last season and while he sustained a minor injury in the preseason, all indications are that he's ready to roll here in Week 1. Todd Gurley was basically M.I.A. in the Super Bowl for the Rams and we think he's a big question mark heading into this season. The loser of the previous year's Super Bowl has gone 3-16 ATS in Week 1 the L19 seasons as there's often a "hangover effect" from losing that big game. Newton is 14-5 ATS as an underdog since 2015, including a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times he's gotten points at home. Teams that missed the playoffs and had a losing ATS record the previous year (Carolina was 7-9 ATS) are 30-15-1 ATS the L10 years in Week 1 if matched up w/ a playoff team. 8* Carolina |
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09-07-19 | California v. Washington -13.5 | Top | 20-19 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 45 m | Show |
10* Washington (10:30 ET): You wanna talk some line value. Last year when these teams met, Washington was an 11-point favorite in Berkeley. They obviously lost outright (12-10), setting up the big revenge play here. But only having to lay a similar number here in Seattle seems like a real bargain. The Huskies were ranked #15 in the country at the time of LY's loss and while Chris Petersen's team isn't being considered nearly as dangerous for 2019, that seems a bit foolish on the surface as they're actually ranked slightly higher currently and we agree w/ the pollsters' assessment. Lay the number here in this Pac 12 opener! It's not just the revenge angle that has us on UW here. We're simply not fans of this Cal team either as they figure to really struggle to put points on the board. They got away w/ not scoring a single offensive TD in last year's upset, but don't figure to be that fortunate again as the Huskies are certainly reminding themselves of what happened that day. While it's a new year, Cal has only four starters back on offense. They turned the ball over quite a bit in 2018 and that looks like it's still going to be a problem as they coughed it up four times in last week's 27-13 win over Cal Davis. The Bears' defense is very good, one of the nation's best on the backend in fact, but they are going to be tested a lot more here. One of the reasons you should not expect much of a slip w/ Washington this season is they brought in a transfer at QB in Jacob Eason, who comes over from Georgia. Eason's first start saw him throw for four touchdowns and 349 yards in a 47-14 rout of Eastern Washington. The Huskies also ran for 200 yards on offense as it really was a complete performance. This is a team that has won the Pac 12 two of the last three seasons and can absolutely get back to the Championship Game again this year. They are a perfect 14-0 SU at home the last three years, so not only will there be no upset this time around, look for the Huskies to win big Saturday night in a revenge spot on National TV. 10* Washington |
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09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 104 h 44 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (10:30 ET): It can't be understated as to what an amazing turnaround Jeff Tedford has engineered here at Fresno State. Two years ago, he inherited a team that had just gone 1-11 SU and finished dead last in the Mountain West Conference. Under his direction, the Bulldogs have gone a stunning 22-6 SU and 20-6-2 at the betting window. They were 12-2 SU last year and won the Conference Title, winning at Boise State. That was a revenge spot for a regular season loss on the blue turf. Late Saturday, FSU gets a shot at revenge for the other of LY's two losses, that being Minnesota, who now must come out to the West Coast (LY's game in Minneapolis). Take the points. Last year was a very even game that saw Fresno State give up the go-ahead score (was tied 14-14) w/ just over three minutes remaining. The game ended w/ FSU throwing an INT in the end zone on the potential game-tying score. I love the fact that the Bulldogs are getting points at home for this rematch as they're a perfect 7-0 ATS as underdogs under Tedford following LW's cover at USC. While they lost the game 31-23, note FSU actually outgained the Trojans 462-447. Yes, Southern Cal lost its starting QB to a season ending injury, but the real key was a 100-yard kickoff return for a TD in the third quarter. Take that away and it was basically an even game at the Coliseum. Minnesota is not as good as USC, but you already knew that. PJ Fleck's team had trouble beating South Dakota State last week, winning by only seven (28-21) as 14-pt favorites. Yes, South Dakota State is one of the better FCS programs. But Minnesota needed a late score just to win the game on the field. The problem for the Gophers appears to be along the line - on both sides of the ball. They gave up a ton of rushing yards last week (174) and considering Fresno just ran for 200+ against USC, expect them to rack up plenty of yards over land in this one as well. 8* Fresno State |
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09-07-19 | Calgary v. Edmonton -2.5 | Top | 33-17 | Loss | -114 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (7:00 ET): For the second week in a row, these Alberta rivals will meet. Calgary is 2-0 in the season series, including a 25-9 win last week. They'd won 24-18 earlier in the year, but the "catch" is that both games took place at McMahon Stadium in Calgary. Edmonton certainly isn't going to take those losses lightly and now w/ the homefield advantage for the first time, we expect them to exact some revenge. We won w/ the Under in each of the first two meetings and expect that Eskimos defense (still #1 in the league) to "show up" here after LW's poor performance. Lay the short number. The Eskimos gave up a season-high 462 yards last week as QB Bo Levi Mitchell made his return for the Stampeders. That was the big storyline heading into the game and we'd thought there was a good chance Mitchell might struggle in his first start in nearly two months. Turns out that wasn't the case. Although, it was really the Stamps' ground game that got things going as they went for over 200 yards rushing. Now let's see how Mitchell performs on the road. Calgary isn't going to run the ball that effectively again, that's for sure. The Eskimos defense still allows just 278.9 yards and 20.3 points per game, which rank 1st and 3rd in the league respectively. Last week saw Calgary have not only the homefield edge, but also the advantage of being off a bye. Neither of those situations are present this week. The Stampeders have lost two of their last three road games with the one win coming by a single point. Edmonton is now off B2B losses, so they're motivated by more than just revenge here. It was the worst offensive game of the season last week for the Eskimos, but they should bounce back at home where they've gone 4-1 SU this season, winning by an average of nearly 10 PPG. 10* Edmonton |
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09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -6.5 | Top | 23-14 | Loss | -116 | 98 h 31 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-07-19 | Central Michigan v. Wisconsin -34 | Top | 0-61 | Win | 100 | 97 h 56 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): It's important NOT to overreact to just one game. However, if Wisconsin's season-opening win over USF (49-0 shutout!) was any indication, then the Badgers may be more improved that most realize. This was going to be an improved team anyway after shockingly falling to just eight wins LY, the low-water mark in Madison over the past decade. The Badgers are our choice to win the wide-open Big 10 West this year and are a potential Top 10 team down the line. Currently ranked #16 in the polls, they should have zero difficulty in blowing out a Central Michigan team that is probably still the worst the MAC has to offer. The huge number won't scare us off. Lay it! That 49-0 win over South Florida last week came on the road for Paul Chryst's team as they outgained the Bulls 433-157. If you recall, we railed against USF for much of last season, but at one point they were ranked. So they have every right to be excited in Madison right now. Remember that RB Jonathan Taylor is coming off a season in which he ran for 2194 yards! He ran for four touchdowns last week. The defense wasn't up to par last year, but clearly has improved. In Chryst's first three seasons here, the Badgers never allowed more than 16 PPG. That number spiked to 22.6 PPG last season, but will almost certainly decrease in 2019. Central Michigan was horrible last season, winning only 1 game and it was against FCS Maine (by a score of 17-5!). Jim McElwain, who previously failed at Florida, takes over this job and it's a pretty big rebuild up in Mount Pleasant. The Chippewas did open the season w/ a 38-21 win, but it was against FCS Albany and giving up that many points probably isn't a good sign. The defense was considered the stronger side of the ball last year, but still allowed over 200 rush yards per game and has just three starters back. So Taylor should run wild here. CMU did have only three losses by 24+ points LY and just one (51-13 at Toledo in the final game) by more than this spread. But it's been a long time since the Chips faced a team as good as Wisconsin. It promises to be a LONG Saturday for them. 8* Wisconsin |
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09-07-19 | Bowling Green +23.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 0-52 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 21 m | Show |
8* Bowling Green (12:00 ET): This is one where we don't see an outright upset, but we're not about to bypass taking this many points against a Kansas State squad still getting its proverbial "feet wet" in the post Bill Snyder era. The Wildcats slipped to 5-7 SU in Snyder's final season, missing a bowl for the 1st time in nine seasons, by blowing a 17-pt lead in the reg season finale at Iowa State (but they still covered for us!). Chris Klieman takes over, coming from North Dakota State where he won four FCS Nat'l Titles in five years. His first game went well w/ the Wildcats running for a school record 361 yards (on 58 carries) against FCS Nicholls State. Though Bowling Green has struggled the last several years, don't expect them to get run over like that. Take the points. Bowling Green also has a 1st year HC in Scott Loefer, who spent the better part of the last decade serving as the OC for some high profile programs (Auburn, Va Tech & BC). This is clearly a massive rebuild he's undertaking and it didn't help that QB Jarret Doege decided to transfer late. But the Falcons' first game was a success as they too clubbed a FCS opponent, beating Morgan State 46-3 w/ a 620-70 edge in total yards! Consider that a "confidence-builder" for a rare P5 game against a team from a conference other than the Big 10. Kansas State has two big road games on deck, at Mississippi State and Oklahoma State w/ a bye week in between. Don't be surprised if late in the game (assuming this one isn't coming down to the wire), the coaching staff doesn't become more concerned about those games than this one. As for BGSU, who just suffered through three bad seasons under former HC Mike Jinks, expect an all-out effort Saturday afternoon in Manhattan. The early start time may do no favors for the favorite either. Consider that this spread is currently larger than what KSU was asked to lay to an FCS opponent last week. There were only three times in the previous two seasons where the Wildcats were asked to lay between 21 and 31 points. They won all three games, but failed to cover twice. This is too big a number for them to be laying right now. 8* Bowling Green |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse v. Maryland -1 | Top | 20-63 | Win | 100 | 93 h 17 m | Show |
8* Maryland (12:00 ET): Over the course of the final nine weeks of last year's NCAAF regular season, we nailed an amazing 18 outright upsets. Wasting little time this year, we've already nailed Hawaii (+11.5) on Opening Night as well as Boise State over Florida State last Saturday. We anticipated this to be the latest addition to our "upset brigade," but unfortunately it can no longer qualify as the line has "jumped the fence" here w/ Maryland now favored. Never fear though. The Terps still are a solid play here as Syracuse (#21 AP/#22 Coaches) is a ranked team in name only. It's a new era in College Park, MD w/ Mike Locksley taking over. Locksley served as the OC under Nick Saban at Alabama the L2 seasons and was the Broyles Award Winner (top assistant) last year. The Maryland players went through alot LY w/ the death of a teammate and the dismissal of D.J. Durkin. But they still opened w/ an emotional 34-29 upset of Texas. Locksley's 1st game as HC projected to be a whole heck of a lot easier and it was w/ Terps beating Howard 79-0. It was a 56-0 game at halftime, giving the starters some rest coming into this week, which is their 1st real test. The Terps finished w/ a 623-68 edge in total yds last wk despite basically taking the 2nd half off. The defense, which has five seniors, allowed just 1 rushing yard and never allowed Howard to cross midfield. For the record, the line flipping might be a blessing in disguise considering the Terrapins are 6-3 ATS their L9 times favored. Dino Babers looks to be building a winner at Syracuse. Last year, his 3rd on the job, saw him guide the Orange to a 10-win season. But don't look for them to be as good as last year. A season-opening win over Liberty (24-0) showed that the offense is going to miss dynamic QB Eric Dungey, who graduated as the school's all-time passing leader. Yes, like Maryland, the 'Cuse pitched a shutout last week as well. But it came against an opponent whose HC was laying in a hospital bed (not making this up!). All three of the Orange's losses LY came outside the Carrier Dome. They are just two years removed from a winless season on the road. Maryland is the better team and look for them to win this battle of former ACC rivals. 8* Maryland |
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09-01-19 | Houston +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:30 ET): Oklahoma HC Lincoln Riley has earned the moniker of "quarterback whisperer" in his two seasons at Norman, although I'm not sure just how much actual whispering is required when you have the likes of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray (the last two #1 overall DC's of the NFL) at your disposal. Riley and the Sooners have seemingly been gifted another star QB in the form of Jalen Hurts, who transferred out of Alabama when it became Tua Tagovailoa was the man in Tuscaloosa. Hurts will be tasked w/ leading a team in search of its fourth playoff appearance in the last five years. The Sooners figure to be favored in every game this season, but are laying a hefty number to a Houston team in the opener. Take the points here. It was 2016, one year before Riley took over for Bob Stoops, that Oklahoma lost outright to Houston in the season opener. They were 12-pt favorites that day, on a neutral field, and lost 33-23 to a Houston team that had legit playoff aspirations of their own that season. Things didn't play out that way (team finished 9-4 SU that year) and Tom Herman wound up leaving for Texas. After two seasons of Major Applewhite at the helm, a change was made and Dana Holgorsen is now running the show. Holgorsen is very familiar w/ OU having coached at WVU the last eight seasons. He didn't have much success, but this team is arguably more talented than what he had the last few years in Morgantown. Speaking of QB's, Houston's D'Eriq King must be mentioned. He accounted for FIFTY touchdowns a year ago and that was with missing the final two games, neither of which went well for the Cougars. Injuries also hurt on the defensive side of the ball and that showed in those final two games (both blowout losses). But because of those injuries, the returning defense has more experience. Under Holgorsen, King should flourish. This is a very dangerous Houston team, one that should not be getting this many points, even in Norman. The Cougars were actually favored in every game King started last year. Oklahoma has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been chalk of 21.5 to 31 points. 10* Houston |
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08-31-19 | Duke +33.5 v. Alabama | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 35 m | Show |
10* Duke (3:30 ET): I'm certain you recall Alabama being absolutely humiliated by Clemson last January in the BCS Title Game as Nick Saban was handed perhaps his worst ever defeat, losing 44-16. So the narrative seems to be that the Crimson Tide are going to come out angry in 2019, looking to blow everyone away (much like they did last year before running into Clemson). The Tide are quite accustomed to these neutral site season openers, winning nine in a row by an average of 24 PPG. But I'd be hesitant about laying this many points. In fact, I'm grabbing the number as Duke is always pesky under HC David Cutcliffe. Now, at the end of the game, I fully anticipate the announcers yelling "Roll Tide." I just don't think they'll "roll" as much as the oddsmakers think they will. Duke comes into the year having to replace QB Daniel Jones, who the NFL's Giants made their top draft choice. While that pick may have been somewhat maligned by draftniks, Jones will be missed in Durham. Still, I trust Cutcliffe enough to expect him to get something out of the QB position. Quentin Harris has made only two career starts (both coming LY when Jones was hurt), but is a senior. One starting receiver (Jake Bobo) is out, but he didn't exactly have awe-inspiring numbers last year. The bottom line is that the only P5 teams w/ more bowl victories than Duke in the L4 years are: Alabama, Clemson and Wisconsin. The Blue Devils can make a game out of this, at least for awhile, which will keep this game within the number. Alabama obviously lost a ton of talent to the NFL. While they're in solid position to replace it, there will still be many first-time starters in the lineup. I don't expect the same fire we saw from the Tide last year, at least in non-conference play. Maybe that will disappoint Saban, but he can settle for another SEC Title & playoff sport. Duke is 10-2 ATS as an underdog the last two seasons and 8-2 ATS when getting 31 or more points going back to '93. 10* Duke |
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08-31-19 | Ole Miss v. Memphis -5 | Top | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 73 h 0 m | Show |
8* Memphis (12:00 ET): Consider all that happened to Memphis last season. There were four different games where they blew a DD lead and lost. Two were against a UCF team that would run the table in the regular season. The other two were upset losses at the hands of Navy (terrible weather) and Wake Forest (Birmingham Bowl). They were also upset as two-touchdown chalk at Tulane. That Tulane loss left them 0-2 in AAC play. Yet the Tigers would still go onto win their division and appear in the Conference Title Game. This year's team projects to be better and I'm taking them in the season opener vs. Ole Miss. Now you may be questioning laying points w/ an AAC team against an opponent from the big, bad SEC. But know that Memphis has gone 13-2 SU at the Liberty Bowl the L2 seasons w/ both losses coming by a single point! They are 0-4 SU against UCF the L2 yrs, but 18-5 SU vs. everyone else. It was four years ago that Ole Miss came to the Liberty Bowl as a 10-pt favorite and lost by double digits (38-24). That was a much more talented Rebels squad too; at the time they were ranked #13 in the country. The Ole Miss team that arrives this year hasn't had a winning season since 2015. They have just three returning starters on offense as well. Now the Rebels were dealing w/ a bowl ban the L2 years and have made significant changes at coordinator w/ Rich Rod running the offense and Mike MacIntyre running the defense for HC Matt Luke. There are 10 starters back on defense. But they are going to struggle to score in the early going (freshman QB) and that should prove costly against a Memphis team that's averaged no fewer than 38.8 PPG under HC Jay Norvell. This is an 11 AM start local time. Ole Miss has gone just 3-6 SU, 2-6 ATS on the road the L2 seasons and is 2-10 SU, 2-9 ATS as a dog. Memphis is not only 13-2 SU at home the L2 season, but also 10-5 ATS. Lay the short number. 8* Memphis |
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08-31-19 | Boise State +5 v. Florida State | Top | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 73 h 59 m | Show |
10* Boise State (12:00 ET): Well, Mother Nature has intervened here, moving the game from Jacksonville to Tallahassee due to the threat of Hurricane Dorian. That turns it from a de facto to actual home game for Florida State. In the interest of full disclosure, I had Boise State before the news came out. I'm sticking w/ them too as now we'll (likely) be able to get an even better number. Remember this is just as much a disruption for FSU as it is the Broncos (game takes place earlier in the day now too). You're not going to see Boise, a 31-win team the last three seasons, getting points very often. Take advantage. Florida State does figure to be one of the more improved teams in the country. Last year seemed almost like a "worst case scenario" under HC Willie Taggart as the 'Noles finished 5-7 SU and missed out on a bowl for the 1st time since 1982! It was their first losing season since Bobby Bowden's 1st year here, back in 1976! Taggart can only dream of the kind of career Bowden had here. While this team is definitely going to be better than last year's edition, I think this spread is a classic case of "putting the cart before the horse," or Bronco, whichever you'd like. The last two years have seen Florida State go just 8-16 against the spread. Boise State is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a dog. FSU had only one win over a ranked team last year and it was BC (#22) by 1 pt here at home. Boise State brings a tremendous defense to Florida. The Florida State defense remains a question mark. Due to the change in time and venue, plus weather uncertainty, don't be surprised if this turns into a low-scoring game as well. Fewer total points scored is just another reason to take the underdog in this one as Boise's freshman QB Hank Bachmeier can make some plays. 10* Boise State |
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08-30-19 | Rice v. Army -21.5 | Top | 7-14 | Loss | -103 | 55 h 2 m | Show |
8* Army (6:00 ET): Army just keeps marching along under HC Jeff Monken, who has set a new school record for wins in a single season each of the last two years! The Cadets were 11-2 last year, one of those losses coming at Oklahoma (in overtime!) The other was the season opener at Duke, the only "bad" game they played all season. Something tells me that Monken will have his team far better prepared for the season opener this year, which comes against a Rice team that projects to be one of the worst, if not THE worst team in the entire country! The Black Knights can name the score here. Lay the points. Army has gone 21-5 SU the last two seasons and ended LY ranked #19 after clobbering Houston 70-14 in the Armed Forces Bowl. This is truly a team to be reckoned with now. They've won 23 straight at West Point as well. Rice won't be threatening them straight up here, rather it's all about the pointspread and final margin of victory. Yes, the Owls have had a full offseason to prepare for the triple option offense Army runs. But considering how bad the defense was last year, it'll take a lot more than just preparation. The last two games vs. Army have resulted in losses by a combined score of 80-26. Rice won just two games last year, the opener (vs. FCS Prairie View A&M) and the finale (upset of Old Dominion). In between, they lost 11 in a row and were outgained by 138 yards per game in C-USA. Unless something drastic changes, the Owls project to be underdogs in all 12 games this year. They were 0-7 SU on the road a season ago, losing all seven by at least two touchdowns. The defensive line is inexperienced coming into the year. Army's offense led the country in time of possession last year while Rice's simply lacks the firepower to keep up. Last year, the Owls averaged only 18.9 PPG (actually up from 16.3 in '17!) 8* Army |
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08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:15 ET): One of these years, BYU is going to win a "Holy War" (lost 8 in a row). It just isn't going to be in 2019. The Cougars seemed to get plenty of love from early bettors for this season opening matchup vs. rival Utah, but the Utes are a legit top 15 team in the country this year and one of the favorites out in the Pac 12. Thus, this number looks to be way too short. Yes, many of these games have been close, including last year when Utah came back from a 27-7 deficit to win 35-27 (-11) in Salt Lake. But this Utes team just may be the most talented BYU has faced in recent memory. Lay the short number. Consider that last year Utah made it to the Pac 12 Championship Game (lost to Washington 10-3) despite losing their starting QB and RB midway through the season. Both are back and ready to contribute in a major way. You know the Utes are going to be eager to take the field here after losing a bowl for just the second time under HC Whittingham. Something not talked about enough outside Pac 12 circles is that Utah perennially has one of the best special teams units in the country. They are also very strong along both the offensive and defensive lines entering the season. BYU went 7-6 last season, a nice bounce back from the somewhat shocking 4-win campaign in 2017. This is HC Kalane Sitaki's fourth year in Provo and obviously he's winless in "Holy Wars." While the Cougars should be a decent team in 2019, they simply are not at the level of the Utes, who (again) are a legit top 15 team. There are plenty of returning starters for Sitaki (17 total), but still there exists a gap between his team and the one in Salt Lake. Consider that in last year's comeback win, Utah didn't have either QB Huntley or RB Moss. Now they do. This number is just too low. 8* Utah |
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08-29-19 | Florida International v. Tulane -2.5 | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 33 h 0 m | Show |
10* Tulane (8:00 ET): Tulane has seen its win total inherit in each of Willie Fritz's three seasons. Fritz inherited a 3-win team in 2016, brought them up to 4, then 5 in 2017 (just missed a bowl) and then finally 7 last year, including that elusive bowl win (1st since '02). The Green Wave started just 2-5 SU last year before going 5-1 down the stretch. While an easier second half schedule was somewhat responsible for the surge, credit must also be given to QB Justin McMillan, whose insertion into the starting lineup also coincided w/ the surge. Only five offensive starters return for Tulane, but one is McMillan, now a senior. Fritz should also have one of his better defenses this year w/ eight starters back on that side of the ball. Speaking of improving, credit must be given to the coaching job being done at FIU by Butch Davis. In his two years back in Miami (previously served at "The U"), he's led the Panthers to 8 and 9-win seasons. Last year's ended with a bowl win, same as Tulane, 35-32 over Toledo. Davis will have eight starters back on both sides of the ball this year, including senior QB James Morgan (NFL prospect) and expectations are thus pretty high for this team. But after going 4-1 SU on the road last year, I see the Panthers actually taking a step back in '19 (maybe just a slight one). Last year, FIU pulled off six outright upsets as underdogs. I don't see that happening again either. These teams met back in 2017 w/ FIU winning 23-10 as a DD home dog. That right there should tell you how far the program has come under Davis. But look for Fritz and Tulane to get revenge here. They're used to opening the season on a Thursday night as they've done so six of the last seven seasons. After last year's early season slumber, the Green Wave will be looking to start fast in 2019. FIU has dropped 12 of its last 14 season openers, including three straight. The big key here will be Tulane's rushing offense, which averaged 219 YPG last year and will going against an FIU defense that allowed 192 YPG on the ground. 10* Tulane |
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08-29-19 | Bucs v. Cowboys -4.5 | Top | 17-15 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:00 ET): Here's a game that's seen a significant line move as I suspect Bucs' 1st year HC Bruce Arians is going to play this one pretty conservatively. It was two weeks ago when I took the Cowboys to cover against the Rams. They did just that in a 14-10 victory. I bring that up because that game also saw a significant line move go Dallas' way. America's Team followed that win up w/ a very impressive showing last week at home vs. Houston, winning 34-0. The Cowboys' defense has played very well this preseason, giving up a total of just 27 points. Lay the number here. Tampa Bay comes in 2-1 after winning each of the last two weeks. Their three games this preseason have all been decided by two points or less. They covered for me in the opener, in backdoor fashion, losing by only two at Pittsburgh. Then, they rallied late to beat Miami 16-14, but failed to cover the number. Last week, it was an ugly 13-12 win over Cleveland. The offensive line was dominated by the Browns, giving up five sacks. We'll be seeing the BACKUPS for that unit this week, which sounds scary. Also the Bucs' offense was shutout entirely in the first half last week as they were down 9-0 going into halftime. Backup Blaine Gabbert suffered a dislocated shoulder, adding injury to insult. Don't expect much scoring either way in this one, but given how the Dallas defense has looked so far, you really shouldn't expect much from the Tampa Bay offense this week. The Cowboys allowed just 135 total yards last week vs. Houston, as impressive a "dress rehearsal" game as any team had. Cooper Rush has had a solid preseason and has likely already earned the backup role to Dak Prescott. 8* Dallas |
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08-29-19 | Colts v. Bengals -3 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Still shell-shocked from the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, you think the Colts might be a LITTLE distracted here. They're already on the verge of a winless preseason anyway and the Luck fallout has obviously consumed camp in Indy this past week. They've averaged just 17 PPG in the first three games and failed to cover all three. Now, obviously this game in Cincinnati will be no different than the other three in that they don't have Luck. But extra precaution will now have to be taken at the QB position so that there's no more surprises heading into the regular season. If you've been following my preseason selections the last few years, then you know that I love to bet a 1st year head coach in his first home game. More often than not, it works. The rationale is pretty simple. At a time when there's little motivation on either side, a new coach is going to want to win to get the fanbase on his side. Well, things didn't work out for new Bengals HC Zac Taylor last week at home vs. the Giants. Note Cincy did lead 17-10 early in the 4Q, only two allow two Giants' touchdowns, one on a punt return. This is Taylor's last chance to win over the fanbase in what promises to be a long season. Look for him to make good on it. Jacoby Brissett will be the Colts starting QB when the regular season starts, but I don't think HC Frank Reich dares to play him here for risk of him getting hurt. In last year's preseason finale (also against the Bengals), the Colts did sustain a couple injuries. So it's going to be a very cautious approach from them here. Meanwhile, I believe Taylor is going to want to win. Rookie QB Ryan Finley, a 4th round DC, has had a strong camp for the Bengals. Cincy has scored 23 pts each of the last two weeks, more than the Colts have scored in any game this preseason. 8* Cincinnati |
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08-29-19 | Eagles v. Jets -4 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (7:00 ET): Same thing as the Bengals here as Jets HC Adam Gase is trying to avoid going winless at home in his first year at the helm. Technically, he's already 0-2 SU at home this preseason as the opener was against the Giants. The Jets lost that game 31-22 and then again last week to the Saints, 28-13. The latter was a game I still cashed in on as the Under, which won - barely, was my 10* Total of the Month. It was a rare time sitting out a 1st year HC in his home debut, but I'll come back w/ Gase and the Jets this time as they close out the preseason vs. Philadelphia. I'm actually quite high on the Eagles going into this year, but the team you see Thursday night won't even resemble the one you see Week 1 vs. Washington. Philly has actually had a pretty rough preseason as they've lost TWO quarterbacks to injury, those being Nate Sudfeld and Cody Kessler. Things got so dire at the position that 40-year old Josh McCown was dragged out of mothballs! McCown actually looked fairly good in his debut last week, completing 17 of 24 passes for 192 yards. But the Eagles QB situation is not pretty heading into the preseason finale. The Eagles lost last week to the Ravens, 26-15, as three-point home underdogs. It was a game that was ruled "no action" as weather prevented it from going a full 60 minutes. Outside of McCown, it was not a particularly good performance from the Eagles anyway. They were down 26-0 at halftime. Keep in mind that this was the "dress rehearsal" game. I'll still stand firm that the Eagles are going to win the NFC East this year, but they're not going to win this game as Gase will be out to win one in front of the faithful at MetLife Stadium. 8* NY Jets |
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08-24-19 | Arizona v. Hawaii +11 | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 124 h 12 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (10:30 ET): You may recall that we opened last season w/ a play on Hawaii and they richly rewarded us w/ a 43-34 outright upset of Colorado State as two-touchdown underdogs. It may not be that easy this time around, but the Warriors getting double digits out on the island is simply too good to pass up (last year's opener was on the road). One of the many rationales cited for playing Hawaii in LY's season opener was that the opponent (CSU) matched the Warriors' inexperience and was caught laying far too many points, given the situation. Well, this year Hawaii has twice as many returning starters (18) as they did a year ago. Take the points. Arizona was very close to making a bowl game last year, but blew a 19-point 4Q lead to rival Arizona State in the regular season finale. That left them at 5-7 SU in HC Kevin Sumlin's first year in Tucson. Sumlin should be cut some slack at QB Khalil Tate was injured most of the year and the team just wasn't the same w/o him and his dual threat ability. I would expect the Wildcats to be better this season, but laying double digits on the road to a team that won a bowl game last year, in the opener no less, seems to be a case of "putting the cart before the horse." No one saw Hawaii starting last year at 6-1, probably not even HC Nick Rolovich. But the "Run and Shoot" (offense) is back in Honolulu and the Warriors scored 40+ five times in the first six games despite having just three starters back from 2017. Now they have nine starters back on both sides of the ball. I don't see the Warriors matching LY's 8-win total or even likely winning this game outright, but they are certainly capable of putting a lot of points on the board, so them in the underdog role is attractive here. Hawaii is on an 8-2 ATS run vs. the Pac 12 while Arizona has failed to cover 16 of its previous 21 road games. Take the points. 8* Hawaii |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton -6.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
10* Edmonton (9:00 ET): Early on, it appeared as if Hamilton and Winnipeg were set to "run away" w/ the respective divisions. However, Edmonton has since surged up the pecking order and many (myself included) now consider them the best team in the league. The rash of injuries at QB across the CFL this season is something I've never seen before and the latest team hit was Winnipeg as last week they lost Matt Nichols for (at least) six weeks w/ an upper-body injury. Expect no sympathy from the Eskimos as this is both a revenge game and a chance to pull into a first place tie in the Western Division. The oddsmakers are pretty clear on who they prefer in this one and I'm inclined to agree. Lay the points. This was going to be a tough game for Winnipeg even w/ Nichols. But playing for the 1st time w/o their starting QB, here of all places, is not ideal. Edmonton is giving up a league-low 18.2 PPG and is also a perfect 4-0 SU at home this season. Getting the start in place of Nichols will be Chris Streveler. He's been used in some short yardage situations this year, but has attempted only nine passes. Steveler did play some last year, but this is a tough ask. The Bombers had already failed to cover three in a row prior to last week's 16-point win over BC. As stated above, this is a revenge spot for the home team. Edmonton lost 28-21 at Investors Field back in Week 3 despite a +3 edge in turnovers and 440-273 edge in total yards. It's really pretty amazing that they lost that game. But now that they are getting the Bombers at home, look for the Eskimos to show that they are the team to beat in this league right now. With all the QB's having gone down, Edmonton is in great shape w/ Trevor Harris, who threw for 420 yds last week in a 41-26 win over Toronto. No team is outgaining foes by a wider margin this year than the Eskimos (+173.9 YPG) and it's not even close. Winnipeg is #2 at +36.0 YPG. 10* Edmonton |
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08-22-19 | Packers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 21-22 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 34 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:00 ET): The Raiders are 2-0 in the preseason, but don't look for that to carryover into the regular season. Making more headlines right now in Oakland is Antonio Brown's act, which is rapidly wearing thin. With or without Brown, the Raiders are probably destined to finish last this year in the AFC West. For the first time this preseason, expect them to taste defeat as they face the Packers at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, Manitoba (home of the CFL's Blue Bombers) Thursday. The Packers will be motivated here coming off a 26-13 loss to Baltimore last week. Lay the points. While they lost last week, Green Bay's 1st preseason game was a success as they won for 1st year HC Matt LaFleur in his Lambeau debut, beating the Houston Texans 28-26 as one-point favorites. The Pack actually led that game 28-10 going into the 4th quarter. Less should be made of last week's loss as, for whatever reason, Baltimore always tries very hard to win these preseason games. Last week marked the Ravens' 11th consecutive preseason win. The Raiders don't have that same kind of attitude and it's already been a challenging week dealing with Brown. For Green Bay, this will be the first of two consecutive games where they'll be playing a team they meet again in the regular season. Raiders HC Jon Gruden has been notorious with his disdain for that situation and thus I'm not convinced the Silver and Black will treat this "dress rehearsal" game w/ the same sense of urgency that you'd normally see. The word out of Raiders' camp is that health is the primary concern right now as several players are injured. Meanwhile, for the Pack, Aaron Rodgers may very well see the field for the first time. LaFleur has previously said he wants to get Rodgers some game experience before the regular season starts. Regardless if Rodgers plays or not, expect the Packers to win easily. 8* Green Bay |
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08-22-19 | Giants v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -135 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Based on the first two preseason games, concerns over the Giants' 2019 fortunes may be all for naught. Of course, we know better and wouldn't want to make any premature claims based on two exhibitions. That said, you probably should expect the G-Men to improve upon LY's 4-win total. Rookie QB Daniel Jones will at some point replace two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning. But we're months from that now. The Giants did beat the Jets 31-22 and the Bears 32-13 the L2 weeks, but both games were at home. Let's see how they play on the road, in front of a crowd eager to see what it's new head coach has in store. Lay the points. Marvin Lewis was finally run out of Cincinnati after 16 seasons. Those 16 seasons may have brought more highlights to Bengals' fans than the 16 that preceded Lewis' tenure, but ultimately they brought no playoff wins. You shouldn't expect any playoff wins this year under 1st year HC Zac Taylor either. But Thursday should certainly bring a motivated effort as it's the team's first time playing in Cincinnati under Taylor. The Bengals opened the preseason by splitting a couple road games. They lost 38-17 at Kansas City, but were a lot better last week in a 23-13 win in Washington. Not only did the defense obviously play better, but the offense turned it over three fewer times as well, which always helps. In the past, I've constantly harped on the motivational edge a home team enjoys in the preseason when playing for a new coach. We saw it w/ our 10* Game of the Week in Week 1 (Arizona) and last week Tampa Bay may not have covered, but they did come back and win for Bruce Arians. Expect the same out of the Bengals for Taylor. Backup QB Ryan Finley has looked good so far in the preseason. The rookie out of Boise State has completed 33 of his 44 pass attempts for 259 yards and three touchdowns. With this being the third game, Andy Dalton and the starters will see the field more. The same holds true for the Giants, but it likely comes down to the fact that the Bengals' backups will be more motivated than their Giants' counterparts. 10* Cincinnati |
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08-18-19 | Seahawks +3 v. Vikings | Top | 19-25 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:00 ET): The Seahawks "suffered" through an 0-4 preseason last year, but were more successful in this year's opener, beating Denver 22-14. What's impressive about that is the Broncos already had a game under their belt, having played the Hall of Fame Game in Canton. Curiously, Seattle closed as a slight home dog for LW's contest. But despite resting most starters (including QB Wilson) they had no problem winning outright as it was 22-6 early in the fourth quarter. One of the more refreshing takeaways from that contest was the play of backup QB Paxton Lynch, who threw 109 yards and scored two touchdowns. Seattle was a playoff team last year. But they were one and done at the hands of Dallas. Minnesota is two years removed from an appearance in the NFC Championship Game, but failed to make the playoffs a season ago, slipping to 8-7-1. They too were a winner in their first preseason game, beating New Orleans 34-25. They put up 460 total yards in that effort, including 217 on the ground. That's pretty impressive. Then again, the Saints have a reputation for not treating the preseason with much urgency. Seattle also ran the ball well last week (151 yards), for the record. The Vikings defense did give up its fair share of points last week, but also scored a touchdown early in the second half, which is what broke the game open. On offense, QB Kirk Cousins led an eight-play, 73-yard drive in his lone series last week. He and the Vikings' first-teamers played into the 2nd quarter in LY's 2nd preseason game and that's expected again here. For Seattle, Russell Wilson sat out the preseason opener, but is also expected to go at least a quarter here. I like the points here as the Seahawks' backups looked good last week. 8* Seattle |
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08-18-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
8* Run Line Arizona (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the D'backs at +1.5. We won w/ the RL yday in a game fueled by revenge (Braves over Dodgers), but this one goes even further than that. While I concede this series has been a gross misread on my part (I've had Arizona in every game), I still believe what the numbers say and that's the D'backs are the far superior team. Taking the run line today "protects us" from what the Giants do best and that's win one-run games. They are a MLB-best 29-11 in that scenario and don't forget about their 12-2 record in extra innings either. The home team does no worse than a one-run loss today. Just as I said in the Texas writeup, a home team getting swept in a four-game series is pretty rare. What makes this series all the more frustrating from the D'backs perspective is the numbers I alluded to earlier. Though San Francisco is 63-61 and Arizona is 61-63, the Giants have actually been outscored this season (by 47 runs!) while the D'backs have a YTD run differential of +61. Consider that the D'backs run differential is actually third best in the entire National League! The Giants is 4th worst w/ only the three last place teams worse. Run differential suggests Arizona has been about 11 games better than SF this year, not the two games worse that they are in actuality. Taking the +1.5 wasn't an option in any of the first three games of this series, but it is here due to the Giants having Madison Bumgarner. But I'm playing the teams, not the starters here. Starting pitching is obviously important, but it isn't the "end all, be all" that it used to be in MLB betting. That said, it is "refreshing" to see that MadBum has a 4.64 ERA and 1.344 WHIP on the road to go along with a losing (5-6) team start record. I know that Merrill Kelly has struggled for Arizona, but with the numbers (specifically a +1.5) on his side, the D'backs get the cash here. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5) |
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08-17-19 | Cowboys -3.5 v. Rams | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Two teams that have proven to care little about the preseason meet Saturday night in Hawaii. Given the line movement for this Saturday night matchup, it speaks volumes about the Rams' perceived lack of effort. Of course, the Cowboys have now lost five straight in the preseason after last week's 17-9 setback to the 49ers. We played against Dallas there, but will back them and the line move in this one. The Rams only scoring three points against the Raiders last week was an ominous sign as to what we should expect from them the next three weeks. Lay the points. The Rams were outgained 407-190 in last week's loss in Oakland, a game in which virtually no key player saw the field. Some starters aren't even making this trip. Blake Bortles will again start at QB. He, John Wolford and Brandon Allen combined to go 15 of 28 for 133 yards last week. There was no semblance of a running game either as the offense averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. The Rams' lack of effort in the preseason is not new. In the four games last season, they scored just 49 points. So that's now a total of 52 points in the last five. That's a big reason why we took the Under in last week's game in Oakland. Now Dallas obviously needs to show a pulse here and I think they will. They did lead last week's game 9-7 entering the fourth quarter. That kind of defensive effort bodes well considering the skeleton crew they are likely to face here. Seeing as Dak Prescott saw the field last week, he will again this week. Four times last week, the Cowboys made into the red zone, only to come away empty-handed. So it was a better performance offensively than you might think. Every Rams starter sat last week and most will again here. 10* Dallas |
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08-17-19 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Braves at +1.5. You might be surprised to see the home team as the underdog in this battle of division leaders, but the reputation of Hyun-Jin Ryu and the Dodgers needs little in the way of introduction. Plus, the Braves are now 0-4 vs. the Dodgers here in 2019. But while Ryu has been other-worldly at Chavez Ravine this season (11-0 TSR, 0.81 ERA, 0.798 WHIP), he's been downright "mortal" on the road by comparison. The Dodgers are also just 6-5 in Ryu's 11 road starts. Atlanta does no worse than a one-run loss tonight and I give them a great shot at pulling the upset. Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz returned to the rotation earlier this month and has led his team to a pair of wins, even though he's not exactly been dominant himself. Going back to June though, Atlanta is a perfect 5-0 in Foltynewicz's last five starts. It should be noted Atlanta did lead 3-1 early last night before failing to score again after the second inning. But they still led 3-2 going into the eighth, which is when LA seized control of the game. A three-run HR drastically altered the trajectory of the game and the Braves could not recover as it was too little, too late. The Braves have had their issues w/ Ryu in the past, just like every other team has this year. But the lone meeting of 2019 was at Dodger Stadium. Yes, I have a ton of respect for what Ryu and the Dodgers have accomplished individually and collectively, but I believe in the revenge angle here and Ryu simply hasn't been as dominant on the road. This is a great price on the Braves at home where they are 34-27 on the year and almost never an underdog. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) |
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08-16-19 | Dolphins v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 14-16 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET): I'm projecting Miami to be the worst team in the league this year. That figures to be a popular take as oddsmakers have established them having the lowest regular season win total at 4.5 (still 5.0 at some shops). I'll first point out that this is a team that went 7-9 SU last year despite being outscored by 114 points. That's a worse point differential than either 6-10 Buffalo or even the 4-12 Jets! Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins have managed to go 23-25 despite a negative 243 point differential and even make the playoffs once. Now it's time to "pay the piper" (so to speak) as the roster has been completely torn down and a new front office/coaching staff is starting from scratch. For what it's worth, the Dolphins did win their first preseason game, 34-27 over Atlanta. They scored a late TD to get the win for Brian Flores in his coaching debut. Perhaps the most impressive takeaway is that Josh Rosen threw for 191 yards on 13 of 20 passing. He led three different scoring drives of 60+ yards. Rosen, who was the top draft choice of Arizona last year, is embroiled in a battle w/ veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. But keep in mind that Rosen's performance came against an Atlanta team that has now lost 11 straight preseason games. Another issue from last week is Rosen absorbed an abnormal amount of punishment (for preseason) as the Miami offensive line looks to be really bad. They were even manhandled by the Falcons' reserve D-lineman, not a good sign obviously. If you recall from my analysis last week, I said the Bucs would improve this year. QB Jameis Winston looked good in his only drive, directing the offense on a 12-play, 81-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown. I think the Winston to Mike Evans combination is going to be a big one in Tampa this year. Tonight marks the 1st home game for coach Bruce Arians, a spot his counterpart won in last week. We've constantly harped on the added motivation a 1st year coach feels in his home debut and will use that situation to our advantage yet again here. 10* Tampa Bay |
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08-15-19 | BC +11 v. Winnipeg | Top | 16-32 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
8* British Columbia (8:30 ET): I successfully played on (BC) and against (Winnipeg) these teams last week and will keep those respective reads for Week 10. We all know that British Columbia has been struggling this year as last week's 35-34 loss to Hamilton dropped them to 1-7 SU on the year. But it was a game effort by the Lions as they came up just one point as big underdogs. I can see a similar story unfolding this week as Winnipeg is coming off a hard-fought 26-24 win over Calgary last week, one in which they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. I had the Stampeders plus the points in that one and will take the big number this week w/ B.C. Like I just said, it was a game effort from the Leos LW. The actually outgained the Ti-Cats 437-355. The problem was being -3 in turnovers and that's why they blew a 34-19 lead. Giving up a long punt return late led to the game-winning score for Hamilton in the final minute. In the first half, they allowed a kickoff to be returned for a touchdown. Despite the tough loss, expect the Lions to come out roaring this week. QB Mike Reilly has his 4th 300+ yard game of the year against the Ti-Cats. WR Bryan Burnham had 149 yards and two touchdowns. Burnham had 156 yards - on five catches - in the Week 1 meeting against Winnipeg. RB Andrew Harris went for 148 yds over land. The interesting thing about that opening week matchup is that the Blue Bombers closed as a pick em. They're now large favorites for the rematch, laying double digits at home. But after failing to cover three in a row and a tough division win over their nearest rival, this is a tough spot to be laying so many points. The Bombers haven't had a bye since Week 2. BC just had theirs two weeks ago and will come out desperate for a win here. 8* British Columbia |
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08-10-19 | Cowboys v. 49ers -4.5 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (9:00 ET): The degree to which they'll improve can be debated, but you should certainly expect the 49ers to be a better team in 2019. Oddsmakers are certainly "on board" w/ that line of thinking, posting an 8-win total for a team that won only 4 games a season ago. If you go back to this time last year, the Niners were actually a pretty trendy pick to improve. They were coming off a strong second half of 2017 w/ Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. But Garoppolo was never really healthy and the team suffered badly. It also didn't help that they were a league-worst -25 in turnover differential. Trust me when I say virtually every sign is pointing "up" for San Francisco heading into this season. Dallas had its own breakout in the second half of last season and ended up winning the NFC East and a playoff game over Seattle. They were 7-2 after acquiring WR Amari Cooper, but were also a lucky team in that they were 8-2 SU in games decided by seven points or less, six of those wins coming after getting Cooper. Also note that they only outscored opponents by 15 pts all of last season. I expect the Cowboys to regress (in terms of wins) in 2019. Whether or not you agree w/ me on that, you certainly have to agree that HC Jason Garrett has never been good in the preseason as his SU record is a lousy 12-21. That includes 0-4 last year. While Garoppolo's health may rightly be a concern for 49ers' fans (he won't play at all here), they should rest at ease a little bit thanks to the fact that backup Nick Mullens has put up nearly identical numbers in the same number of games started. Mullens will start this game. There were some injury scares this week on the defensive side of the ball this week w/ Nick Bosa and Jason Varrett both getting hurt. Both are out for the preseason, but neither was going to play much here anyway. Look for San Francisco to make a statement at home in the preseason opener. 8* San Francisco |
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08-10-19 | BC +11 v. Hamilton | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
10* British Columbia (7:00 ET): It's been a rough start to the season in Western Canada, at least in B.C. where the beloved Lions are 1-6 and in last place. The Leos' lone victory this year came by one point, 18-17, on a last second rouge over a Toronto team that was winless all the way until last week. Five of the team's six losses have been by double digits and the last three have been by a total of 67 pts (including two 27-pt losses at home). My hope, obviously, is that the team is going to be a lot better off the bye. I think they will, so take the points against a wounded (literally & figuratively) Hamilton team. Contrary to what's going on in B.C., Hamilton's season got off to a wonderful start. The Ti-Cats were really humming along at 5-1 after beating previously unbeaten Winnipeg, 23-15, in Week 7. But disaster struck in that game w/ QB Jeremiah Masoli getting injured. Coming into the year, Masoli was easily the best QB in the East Division and that's why I (along w/ so many others) thought that they would breeze to a first place finish. They still are in first, but things have gotten closer after LW's 24-19 loss to Saskatchewan. The Ti-Cats simply are not the same w/o Masoli, so that's why I'm preaching to be wary of this double-digit spread here. I had the Under in LW's loss in Regina. While credit for Hamilton scoring only 19 pts could easily go to a Roughriders defense that previously held them to 17 pts in the opener, don't look past the change at QB. Dane Evans threw for just 129 yards last week, a far cry from what we're used to seeing from Masoli. Furthermore, the Hamilton offense has only managed 234.7 YPG the L3 weeks. With B.C. off its first bye of the year, I think they'll come out refreshed and easily cover this large spread. 10* British Columbia |
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08-09-19 | Bucs +2.5 v. Steelers | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET): The Bucs enter the 2019 season w/ a new head coach (Bruce Arians) and hopefully a new "lease on life." They still have some issues though, namely the same old QB (Jameis Winston) and a defense that gave up a frightening number of yards last season. But I think this team will enter the year somewhat underrated. They really weren't as bad as last year's 5-11 SU record indicates, considering they actually outgained opponents on a per play basis. What really hurt was losing six of the nine games decided by 7 pts or less and a -18 turnover margin. Arians will have them "ready to go" for this preseason opener and I'm taking the points. Pittsburgh is also going to be better than a lot of people expect this year. Yes, they lost both RB Leveon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. But the former didn't play at all last season anyway and the latter's production can be offset by Ju Ju Smith-Schuster. Last year's nine-win season seemed like the "floor" for the Steelers, who were certainly more "unlucky" than bad. They too lost a lot of close games (5) and had a bad turnover margin (-11). I don't think they'll be as motivated as the Bucs tonight though. This is a team more focused on the regular season. Looking at the backup QB situation, Tampa Bay has Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fitzgerald and Ryan Griffin. Not exactly a "murderer's row," but the player to watch is going to RB Ronald Jones, who is having a tremendous camp. Out of USC, Jones had a disappointing rookie season last year. But he seems like he's going to "break out" in 2019. Arians used to be the OC in Pittsburgh, so that only adds to his motivation here. He's been saying the right things all week and 1st year head coaches have treated us well so far in the preseason. Pittsburgh's backup QB rotation of Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs and Devlin Hodges does not scare us. 8* Tampa Bay |
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08-08-19 | Chargers v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 129 h 47 m | Show |
10* Arizona (10:00 ET): The Cardinals have a first year coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who certainly seemed to "fail his way up" after being fired at Texas Tech. Kingsbury will have a rookie QB in Kyler Murray (#1 overall DC), the former Heisman Trophy winner, who replaces another 1st round DC (from just last year!) in Josh Rosen (traded to Miami). Not much is expected this year from Arizona, but I believe they have the potential to be at least a little bit better than LY's disastrous 3-13 SU finish. Playing the 1st preseason game at home, with a new HC, they'll certainly be more motivated than the Chargers, so lay the short number. Coming off a playoff appearance, the Chargers know "who they are" heading into 2019. Well, with one possible exception. RB Melvin Gordon is holding out and that could last into the regular season. Gordon was unlikely to play here anyway, same for QB Philip Rivers. Under HC Anthony Lynn, LA is 3-5 ATS in the preseason and has lost both years in Week 1. Another position of concern for the Bolts heading into the year is left tackle where anchor Russel Okung is out due to blood clots. Taking most of the snaps at QB will be the trio of Tyrod Taylor, Cardale Jones and rookie Easton Stick. When we backed Denver in the Hall of Fame Game, it was made clear that 1st year HC's are something we target. These preseason games often come down to motivation and we saw the Broncos play down to the wire, scoring a late TD for the win. At home, Kingsbury should be especially motivated to win. Getting the fanbase on your side is a must. Murray is scheduled for 10-12 snaps hopefully while Brett Hundley (who we last saw filling in for an injured Aaron Rodgers in 2017) will play backup. 10* Arizona |
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08-08-19 | Calgary +9 v. Winnipeg | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
8* Calgary (8:30 ET): QB Bo Levi Mitchell (injured since Week 3) was eligible to return for this game, but just to illustrate how well things have gone w/ backup Nick Arbuckle in there, the Stampeders have elected to push back Mitchell's return at least one more week. Since losing in Week 1 to Ottawa (blew double digit lead), the Stamps have won five of six (only loss by 7 at Hamilton) to catch Winnipeg in the Western Division. The Blue Bombers started the season 5-0, but have subsequently dropped B2B games at a most inopportune time. Too many points here. Take Calgary as a dog. After a 2-2 start, it seemed as if many were quick to write Calgary off. But their defense is playing as well as any in the league right now, giving up an average of just over 16 PPG during a three-game win streak. Arbuckle is doing an outstanding job here as well. Last week, he completed 19 of 28 passes for 189 yards in a 24-18 win over rival Edmonton. Honestly, that was one of Arbuckle's weaker efforts. He has two 350+ yard games under his belt. It's pretty rare to see the Stampeders as an underdog, certainly of this magnitude. Earlier this year, they pulled one outright upset on the road, beating Saskatchewan 37-10 as 5-point pups. Much will be made of Winnipeg's motivation in this one coming off the terrible loss to Toronto last week. Plus, this is a rematch of LY's Western Final, which was won by the Stampeders 22-14 as five-point favorites. The Bombers seem to be the only team in the league that hasn't suffered an injury at QB and pivot Matt Nichols was playing like a MVP in leading the team to a 5-0 start. But he had an "off week" last week, throwing for a season-low 169 yds as the Bombers blew a 20-pt first half lead to lose by one, 28-27, in the closing seconds. The week before they lost to a Hamilton team that lost starter Jeremiah Masoli to injury. Calgary is catching Winnipeg at an opportune time and may not even need the points! 8* Calgary |
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08-02-19 | Mets v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh Run Line (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Pirates at +1.5. The Mets are a hot team right now and we backed them yesterday as they won for a seventh straight time, shutting out the White Sox 4-0. They'd previously swept Pittsburgh, who they're matched up again w/ this weekend. Last weekend's series was in Queens and while I've previously stated that recommendations on the Bucs will be "few and far between," I'm willing to take them at home here, with revenge and getting an additional run and a half. This seven-game win streak has the Mets within two games of .500 and certainly viable in what's going to be a wide-open Wild Card race in the National League. But let's not go too far w/ the praise. I backed them yday because they were matched up w/ one of the very worst teams in all of baseball. Pittsburgh is probably the NL's 2nd worst team right now (Miami is definitely worse), but they're generally tougher to beat here at PNC Park. It's been an ugly stretch in the Steel City, that's for sure, as the Bucs come into this series having dropped 16 of 19 games since the Break. But five of those losses were by one run, including one to the Mets last weekend. Admittedly, things don't look that great for the home team coming into this series. Not only have they been losing and are matched up w/ a hot team that just swept them, but they've got some suspensions to deal with as a result of the brawl w/ the Reds a few days ago. There is going to be a lot of pressure here on starter Trevor Williams, but he does have a 1.80 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Mets. He was a 3-0 loser to Steven Matz last Saturday and will oppose Matz again tonight. Matz went the distance in that game for his 1st CG shutout of 2019. But he has a 6.40 ERA and 1.654 WHIP on the road and won't be as effective this time around. 8* Pittsburgh Run Line (+1.5) |
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08-01-19 | Broncos -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:00 ET): The Broncos enter the 2019 season w/ a new head coach (Vic Fangio) and new starting QB (Joe Flacco). Being that this is their first game under a new HC, I think they're more apt to take this Hall of Fame Game more seriously compared to their opponents, who largely are bringing back the same cast of characters from last year. First year head coaches are usually a target of mine in these preseason games as motivation is such a key factor in handicapping them. A new coach definitely wants to get the fanbase on his side and the best way to do that is through some wins, even if they occur in games that are rather meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Lay the points here. Atlanta hasn't taken the preseason very seriously under Dan Quinn, at least I hope that the case because they've gone 5-11 SU in his four seasons here, including B2B 0-4 campaigns. So it's an eight-game preseason losing streak heading into this one for the Falcons. Were it a new coaching staff, I'd say they'd be motivated to end it. But with Quinn comfortable entering year five, I don't think it's a priority for him. Last year, the Falcons offense scored a grand total of 27 pts in four preseason games. QB Matt Ryan threw just two passes in Week 1 of the Preseason LY and may not play at all tonight. WR Julio Jones definitely isn't going to play. Flacco and Ryan were both drafted in the same year (2008). Flacco has won a Super Bowl, but his best days seem to be behind him. He won't play Thursday, but the Broncos have an interesting battle going on for the backup QB role involving three rookies: Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Kevin Hogan. The hope is that Lock will win the job as he was drafted highest. But Hogan will start. This is something else to look for in the preseason, that being having motivated signal callers in the game, which ensures the offense will at least be a little more than "vanilla." History says the Broncos will be the more motivated side here. 10* Denver |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan v. BC +3 | Top | 45-18 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
10* British Columbia (7:00 ET): It has not been a good start to the season for BC, who sits at 1-5 SU/ATS w/ their lone win coming on a last-second rouge over (still) winless Toronto back in Week 4. But I'll take a flier here as the Lions are a home dog in an immediate revenge spot vs. division rival Saskatchewan. Last week at Mosaic Stadium, the Roughriders prevailed 38-25 as six-point chalk. You may recall the fact I was on them. But comparing spreads, there definitely appears to be value on the home side as a dog this go around. Take the points. A key factor in me playing Saskatchewan last week was the fact they were coming off a bye. They were certainly eager to take the field after being embarrassed two weeks prior (also at home) by Calgary, 37-10 as five-point favorites. BC has not yet had its bye (comes next week). With their next three games coming against Winnipeg and Hamilton, two on the road (yikes!), this week is absolutely the Lions best shot at a win between now and the end of August. Getting this one at home is also huge as Saskatchewan is 0-2 on the road having opened the season w/ losses at Hamilton and Ottawa. The Roughriders haven't played a road game in a little over a month. The Lions actually outgained the Roughriders last week, 458-379, but gave up far too many "big plays" in the second half. For QB Mike Reilly, it was still a nice bounce back performance (31-40, 346 yds) after the disastrous game vs. Edmonton the week prior. Despite the 1-5 record, the Lions' offense actually leads the entire CFL in first downs w/ 130. With their season basically at stake here, I'll take them as a home dog. 10* British Columbia |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton -11 | Top | 0-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Edmonton (9:30 ET): The Eskimos are set to take the field just five days after they last played. That's hardly ideal, but the situation is actually worse for the visiting Argonauts, who are still winless (0-5) and playing their third road game in as many weeks. Four of the Argos' five losses have been by at least 10 points, including last week's when a sloppy second half led to a 26-16 defeat at the hands of Calgary. But the real reason the Argos are in trouble here may have nothing to do w/ them at all. Rather, it's the fact Edmonton was upset Saturday at Montreal as six-point chalk. I'm laying the points here as this could get ugly, in a hurry. The Eskimos just played their L3 games all on the road, so they know the situation Toronto is facing all too well. It was a 20-10 defeat out in Montreal Saturday, the Esks' lowest scoring game of the season. But now they're back home where they've gone 2-0 so far this year, beating Montreal by seven and B.C. by 16. In particular, look for QB Trevor Harris to have a bounce back game tonight as the Argos' defense is giving up a league-worst 37.6 points per game. Despite a subpar game last week, Harris is still leading the league in passing yardage (1,633) w/ eight TD passes. Even w/o RB C.J. Gable and receiver DaVaris Daniels, Harris and the Edmonton offense should have no trouble moving the ball in this game. It's not just the defense that's bad for the Argonauts. The offense is averaging a league-low 15.0 PPG and they come into this game w/o RB James Wilder Jr and slotback Armanti Edwards. Sure it was a game effort last week in Calgary, but seven turnovers doomed the Argos and they looked really bad in the second half. QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson (threw 4 INT's vs. Calgary) simply doesn't look "ready for primetime" and he'll be going against a defense that's giving up just 20.4 PPG, third fewest in the league. Going back to last year, Toronto has now lost 14 of its last 15 games. Again, lay the points here. 8* Edmonton |
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07-20-19 | BC v. Saskatchewan -4.5 | Top | 25-38 | Win | 100 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
10* Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): So I like the total in this matchup as well. But, coming off a bye, I expect the Roughriders to have little difficulty covering the spread. British Columbia is reeling right now as QB Mike Reilly had a nightmare game against his former team, Edmonton, a 33-6 loss at home. The Lions are very lucky not to be 0-4 right now as their lone win came in last second fashion, on a rouge, 18-17 over still winless Toronto. I think a pretty clear case can be made that B.C. is the West's weakest team this year and I'll lay the short number w/ the Roughriders. As mentioned above, Saskatchewan is coming off its bye. Perhaps it came at an opportune time as they too are off an embarrassing home loss, theirs coming to Calgary, 37-10 as five-point favorites. That leaves the Riders at just 1-3 SU this year. But their first two losses came by just nine total points. They also dominated Toronto here, 32-7, something B.C. failed to do. A big key for the Riders lies at stopping the run. The first three games all saw them hold the opponent below 100 yds rushing. B.C. has really struggled to run the ball this year w/ only the Toronto game seeing them gain more than 91 yds over land. Three times they've been at 53 yards or less. The Lions are barely averaging over 300 YPG so far. They also are barely averaging 20 PPG. I see the Roughriders having a bounce back game defensively. I realize backup Cody Fajardo struggled two weeks against Calgary, but this is a much weaker opponent he's facing this week. The Riders are 4-1 ATS off a bye and 12-5 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Saskatchewan |
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07-19-19 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg -10 | Top | 1-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
10* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): The Blue Bombers have emerged as one of the CFL's top teams this year as they are the only unbeaten remaining at 4-0. But that's only part of the reason why they are such prohibitive favorites this week against the REDBLACKS. Thanks to an injury to starting QB Dominque Davis, Ottawa is going w/ Jonathan Jennings at the pivot this week. An offseason signing, Jennings has never started for the Redblacks previous to this. It's a tough spot and to make matters worse, the team is reeling having gone 0-3 SU/ATS the L3 games. Lay the number. Winnipeg is off to its first 4-0 start in decades. The franchise hasn't started a year 5-0 since 1960 when they went 14-2 and won the Grey Cup. But this group looks to be something special as they've won every game by at least seven points, including 29-14 at Ottawa back in Week 4. The Bombers were actually four-point underdogs in that game, so obviously a lot has changed since then. The biggest is the Redblacks QB situation, but also it's become quite clear that the Bombers are among the league's elite teams this year. (Really, it's either them or Hamilton for #1). Winnipeg is giving up the fewest points in the league right now (19.7 per game) while also averaging 34.5 PPG themselves. So as you can see, this really is a tough spot for Jennings to come in and make his Ottawa debut. The Redblacks have all of three passing TD's this year and all of them came in the Week 2 win over Sasktachewan. Since then, they've scored only 33 points (at a time when scoring is way up across the CFL) including last week's very disappointing 36-19 home loss to Montreal. Given how the Bombers dominated them the first time around, I can't see how this game goes any better for the Redblacks. 10* Winnipeg |
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07-06-19 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan -4 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 25 m | Show |
10* Saskatchewan (10:00 ET): Those well versed in CFL betting know that fading Calgary is something you didn't often do, even when the Stampeders were being asked to lay a big number. The Stamps have dominated this league the past several seasons, but a loss in LY's Grey Cup followed by a mass exodus of talent in the offseason have left them a shell of their former selves. The latest setback may be the biggest one of all as last week saw QB Bo Levi Mitchell go down w/ an "upper-body injury" that has landed him on the six-week injury list. I have no hesitation here in laying a short number to the Stamps in their first road game of 2019. Despite the Mitchell injury, Calgary was able to come from behind and pull out a miraculous victory last week at BC. But the way they started the game probably doesn't speak well to the future. They were down 21-1 at one point (at home!) and trailed 32-21 in the fourth quarter. Mitchell's replacement, Nick Arbuckle, came in and delivered a stunning performance in relief by completing all nine pass attempts, two for touchdowns. But I wouldn't look for a repeat of that here against a stingy Roughriders defense. It's now a hostile environment for the Stampeders playing a team that smells "blood in the water." Saskatchewan was my top side last week as well as they rolled Toronto 32-7 in the Mosiac Stadium opener. They rolled up 522 yds of total offense while allowing the Argos to gain only 314. Despite being 1-2, the Roughriders have outgained all three of their opponents this year. They have their own injury at QB (Zach Collaros out), but Cody Fajardo has come in and proved himself, leading the offense to 73 points in two starts. Expect the Roughriders' defense to do its job here as well. They face a Calgary offense that has run for just 73 yds this year, a big reason why the Stamps have been outgained in both games. Remember Saskatchewan won the season series from Calgary last year and that was a much better Stampeders team. 10* Saskatchewan |
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07-05-19 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Run Line Miami (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5. Yet another revenge play where we'll have an additional 1.5 runs in our proverbial "back pocket." Normally I would not even consider the Marlins here, given the oddsmakers are giving them such a small shot of winning. But having the undefeated Jordan Yamamoto on the mound is definitely a "game changer." Yes, Atlanta has played well of late and they have owned the Marlins. But my view is that the road team does no worse than a one-run loss tonight. The Braves are 22-6 vs. the Marlins since the start of last season, including 8-1 in 2019, but they've yet to face Yamamoto. Considered just a "throw in" as part of the deal that sent Christian Yelich to Milwaukee, Yamamoto has been a real "bright spot" on a last place team. He has a 4-0 TSR w/ a 2.35 ERA and 0.957 WHIP. After completely shutting down the Cardinals in two different starts (no runs allowed in 14 IP), Yamamoto moved on to face the Phillies twice and while not quite as dominant, he still allowed only five hits in 9 IP. There were some control issues in those starts, but I don't see that being a long-term issue for him. I know Atlanta's offense has been red hot of late, but Yamamoto should "cool them off" somewhat tonight, thus opening the door for an upset. Note the last two times the Braves beat the Marlins, it was a one-run game. Here, you also have the fact that Julio Teheran has looked HORRIBLE of late. Friday's starter for Atlanta comes in w/ an 11.92 ERA and 2.736 WHIP over his L3 starts! He was a little better his last time out, but still lasted only 3 1/3 innings. We're getting the better pitcher +1.5 runs here, which is exceedingly rare and an opportunity that's simply too good to pass up. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5) |
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07-05-19 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -154 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. Fueled by the revenge angle, I took the Rays yday and it was a pretty brutal beat w/ them rallying to tie the game in the ninth, only to then lose 8-5 (in 10 innings). They're now 2-8 against the Yankees this year, which largely explains why they're looking at a 7.5 game deficit in the AL East standings heading into the final weekend before the All-Star Break. While many will disagree, I don't feel that the Yankees are substantially better than the Rays, so the head to head record seems a little misleading. With an extra 1.5 runs in their "back pocket," TB is again the play tonight. Then again, maybe the Rays won't even need the +1.5. Ultimately, the run line would NOT have helped last night as they gave up five runs in the top of the 10th, but they held the Yankees to just three runs in nine innings. Tampa continues to pace the entire league w/ only 3.7 rpg allowed, so them getting the +1.5 here could be potentially huge. Brendon McKay gets the start tonight and it's hard to be any better than he was exactly one week ago in his big league debut where he held Texas scoreless for six innings. He retired the first 16 batters that he saw and allowed just one hit. It'll likely be tougher for McKay this time around, facing the Yankees, but I think he's up for the challenge. While there's no way Masahiro Tanaka will be as bad as he was his last time out, hopefully the dreadful performance over in London last weekend has him shaken. In what ended up as a ridiculously high scoring series, Tanaka couldn't even make it out of the first inning as he gave up six runs to the Red Sox. That's obviously "out of character" for him, but Tanaka is only 5-5 in 17 starts this year and the team is only 2-4 in his six starts away from home. The Rays do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5) |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
10* Saskatchewan (7:00 ET): In my analysis for last week's Hamilton @ Toronto game, I wrote the following "I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here." Well, that turned out to be a sharp move as Hamilton ANNIHILATED Toronto by a score of 64-14. As a result, the Argos opened as double digit dogs this week at Saskatchewan, who is also winless on the season (0-2). But the Roughriders can at least lay claim to being competitive in both of their defeats. In fact, they outgained both Hamilton and Ottawa and that was on the road. This is the season opener at Mosaic Stadium and comes on Canada Day, so you can expect a rabid crowd. I expect the Riders to reward their fans w/ a blowout victory here tonight. Even though they've lost both games, there is plenty of reason to believe in this Saskatchewan team here, even w/ QB Zach Collaros on the six-week injured list. The defense held Hamilton to just 23 points in Week 1, a significant achievement considering what the Ti-Cats have done subsequently. Then last week, under the direction of QB Cody Fajardo, they still scored 41 points on Ottawa. Unlike the Redblacks, Toronto is probably not capable of trading scores here as they came into the season w/ major questions at the pivot (QB) and those certainly were no closer to being answered following Week 1. The Argonauts managed just 214 total yards vs. Hamilton and the defense was shredded for 600+ yards while giving up touchdowns on each of the first six drives. Lay the points 10* Saskatchewan |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg -5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (8:30 ET): Winnipeg is off a bye and has only played once, a 33-23 win over B.C. where they were +3 in turnover differential. Edmonton is 2-0, but will be playing on the road for the first time this season. So the stakes are high for this early season Western Division showdown. I'm going to lay the points w/ the Blue Bombers as I feel they are going to present some more challenges offensively than what the Eskimos have seen so far this season. Edmonton is off a spirited win over B.C., 39-23 as 2.5-pt favorites, a game where the sharp money had lined up AGAINST them. But they were able to contain former pivot Mike Reilly and the rest of the Lions offense, holding them to just 157 total yards of offense. With that performance, Edmonton is #1 in the league in yards per game allowed through two weeks. They are also #1 in yards gained on offense due to piling up over 600 in the opening week win over Montreal (32-25). But make no mistake about it, playing on the road for the first time, this is going to be the Esks toughest challenge. These rivals have split the last eight meetings. This will be Winnipeg's first home game as well. Interesting to note that Edmonton was just 2-7 SU on the road last season en route to a last place finish. The two teams they've beaten so far are a combined 0-3. Winnipeg's Andrew Harris ran for 148 yards on 16 carries in the opener and is the player to watch here. Look for the Bombers to reign supreme Thursday night. 8* Winnipeg |
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06-22-19 | Hamilton -3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 64-14 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (7:00 ET): I think it speaks volumes that - off a less than stellar offensive showing in Week 1 - Hamilton would be favored on the road here against a Toronto team coming off an opening week bye. That probably speaks more to the current state of the Argos than anything else. They went 4-14 SU last season (worst record in the league) after winning the Grey Cup in 2017. They enter 2019 w/ plenty of uncertainty, particularly at the QB position. I'm laying the points here. Hamilton won its season opener, 23-17 over Saskatchewan. Many were surprised the Ti-Cats didn't score more given the way their offense performed under June Jones down the stretch last season. They are the one team in the East that entered the year settled at QB as Jeremiah Masoli threw for 5,209 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Even with wideout Luke Tasker out for this game, the Ti-Cats have a deep group of playmakers that are more than capable of moving the ball. Remember they were facing a tough Saskatchewan defense last week. Toronto's simply is not of that same caliber. The Argos haven't had much success against their provincial rival in recent years, covering only 3 of the last 15 matchups. Hamilton took three of four last year, including both here in Toronto. While Corey Chamblin is back as the head coach of the Argos (previously served as DC here for the Grey Cup team in '17), he has his work cut out for him. I really think they're going to struggle to score points early on. QB James Franklin is a big question mark. The defense isn't as talented as the group Chamblin had two years ago. Hamilton makes a statement here that they are the team to beat in the Eastern Division. 10* Hamilton |
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06-21-19 | BC +4 v. Edmonton | Top | 23-39 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
8* British Columbia (9:00 ET): In Week 1, B.C. learned first-hand that Winnipeg may very well be "as good as advertised." The Lions were dealt a 33-23 loss by the Blue Bombers, at home no less, which is obviously NOT how they wanted to start the season. Meanwhile, Edmonton opened its season by downing Montreal 32-25 in a home game that was less competitive than the final score would indicate. The Eskimos outgained the Alouettes, 608-299, but needed a late score after the Als actually tied things up w/ a 4Q comeback. But let's not kid ourselves. The Als are the worst team in the CFL. More than anything else, it was a -3 turnover differential that killed BC last week. They didn't have a balanced attack on offense (only 4 yds rushing on 4 attempts), but QB Mike Reilly had a solid debut as he completed 22 passes for 324 yards. Winnipeg was far more balanced on offense w/ 170 yards rushing and 180 passing. I expect the Leos defense to be a lot more stout this week against the Eskimos, who don't have an Andrew Harris (who led the league in rushing last year for Winnipeg). This is a big game for Reilly after he chose to leave Edmonton for B.C. in the offseason. The pivot (QB) who replaced Reilly is Trevor Harris and he was the league's most accurate passer in Week 1. But for any Eskimos fans wanting to say "good riddance" to Reilly, they better be careful what they wish for. This will be a much more challenging game than Week 1 was for Edmonton. It's highly unlikely that they'll enjoy anything close to the massive edge in total yardage that was present vs. Montreal. Thus, I'm taking the points here. BC will run the ball more here (how could they not?) against an Eskimos' defense that permitted 134 yds on 17 carries last week. Also, the Lions have a big edge on special teams, thanks to return man Brandon Rutley, who had a 108-yard return for TD against Winnipeg. 8* British Columbia |
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06-20-19 | Angels v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays +1.5. Toronto just can't seem to beat the Angels as last night's 11-6 loss dropped them to 0-6 head to head this season. But that's where the RL can at least help us this evening as they look to avoid what would be a pretty embarrassing four-game sweep in their own ballpark. Home teams rarely get swept in four-game series, so that & the revenge angle have me taking the Jays +1.5 here. Now last night I did take the Angels. It was the second time in the series that they scored 10 or more runs. The middle game was a lot different as that was only a 3-1 win where they had to rally. Last night was all about Mike Trout as he had a career-high 7 RBI's, including his sixth career grand slam. The loss dropped Toronto to 12-25 at home this year as they have the lowest team batting average in all of baseball. It may not appear that tonight's starter Clayton Richard (10.21 ERA, 2.026 WHIP L3 starts) is poised to help the cause, but LA is just 11-17 in games where they face a southpaw starter. Richard had one really bad outing, that came the last time he pitched here at home (vs. Arizona). But other than that (gave up 7 runs in 2 2/3 IP), he hasn't been all that bad. It's not as if Angels starter Jose Suarez has been "lights out" either. He's allowed a HR in each of his three starts and has a 4.50 ERA. He's also yet to go more than 5 2/3 innings in any start. To me, this simply boils down to the "just due" factor for Toronto as they are on their longest home losing streak in 15 seasons. Meanwhile, this is the first time the Angels have been above .500 since they were 8-7 on April 13th. 8* Run Line Toronto (+1.5) |
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06-18-19 | Angels v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -140 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* Toronto RUN LINE (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Blue Jays at +1.5. I was set to make this very same wager last night. But Toronto made a last minute pitching change, thereby rendering the play "no action." It's a good thing too, as they lost 10-5 to the Angels. But I'll come back w/ TOR +1.5 today as we're assured of having a much more capable starter on the mound (Marcus Stroman). Though the Angels are 4-0 vs. the Blue Jays so far in 2019, I'm not convinced they are a demonstrably better ballclub in any real, tangible way. Stroman definitely looked good his last time out, which ended up being a rare Toronto win. He allowed just two runs - only one earned - across six innings as the Blue Jays beat Baltimore. It was also the fifth time in the last six starts that Stroman allowed 3 ER or fewer. Last night's pitching was a disaster for Toronto as Edwin Jackson came in during the second inning and allowed seven runs. That's not going to happen w/ Stroman on the mound. While the Jays definitely have been struggling this year, what makes yday's defeat so disappointing is the fact they were coming off a big 12-0 win over Houston on Sunday. With the win yday, the Angels moved within a game of .500. This isn't the first time they've had a chance to pull "even" on the season and every time previous seems to follow a predictable pattern. The last seven times LA has had a chance to move to .500, they have lost. Tyler Skaggs will start for them on Tuesday and quality starts from him have been few and far between, especially on the road where his ERA (6.11) and WHIP (1.471) are both poor. Last night's game couldn't have gotten off to a better start for the Angels, but I expect the Blue Jays to get revenge here. 8* Toronto RUN LINE (+1.5) |
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06-13-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -2.5 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): I just can't see the Warriors losing this game. Not after what happened in Game 5. I'm not referring to the Kevin Durant injury, of course, though that should not be minimized. Rather, I'm talking about how Golden State saved its season AFTER the Durant injury, "stealing" the game by a score of 106-105. Another reason I can't see the Dubs losing here is the fact Toronto won the first two games played here in Oakland. Them going 3-0 SU at Oracle Arena just seems far-fetched. I'll gladly lay the short number here as I'm concerned about the Raptors' psyche. The loss of Durant is obviously significant. The Warriors lost three of the first four Finals games without him (though they were previously 5-0 w/o him since the initial injury). But the Game 5 comeback did not require his presence. It was the "Splash Brothers" (Curry & Thompson) combining to hit three consecutive three-pointers (after being down six) late in the fourth quarter. I've said previously that if there's one team that could overcome an injury to a player the caliber of Durant, it would be the talent-rich Warriors. They still have four former All-Stars on this roster, one of them a former league MVP himself (Curry). Durant did have 11 pts in 12 mins in Game 5, but after the injury took place, Golden State still expanded its lead to as many as 14 points. (By the way, it should also be pointed out that Kevon Looney reaggravated his injury & is also done for the series). Now they are back at home where they don't lose often - let alone three times in a row. That's the key for me as this one seems destined to go to a Game 7. Toronto was minutes away from its first ever NBA Title and now has to go to a hostile environment instead. I admit that this is far more of a "gut" play than a technical one, something I don't do often. But it's the right call here. 10* Golden State |
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06-07-19 | Raptors v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 105-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:05 ET): While it's the Warriors' fifth straight year in the Finals, this particular edition appears to be in no way as dominant as the previous four (three of which won at all). After taking a 123-109 loss in Game 3 (at home!), the Dubs have now trailed by double digits in each of their last six games. They've actually won four of those, but no Kevin Durant and no Klay Thompson proved too big of an obstacle to overcome Wednesday night. Thankfully, Thompson is going to be back for Game 4. Off a loss, I'm laying the short number w/ Golden State at home. Few gave them a chance of winning this series, but the Raptors are definitely making everyone sit up and take notice. While it hasn't been quite the same stifling defense that we saw in the first three rounds (held Orlando, Philadelphia and Milwaukee under 100 PPG), Toronto has held Golden State to exactly 109 pts in all three games, which is 8.4 PPG under its season average. Offensively, the Raptors have hit on all cylinders in two of three games (should be easy to figure out which two!). Game 3 saw them shoot 52.4% overall, their highest FG% in any game this postseason. All five starters scored at least 17 points, including Danny Green going 6 of 10 from three-point range. I just can't envision a similar offensive showing from the Raptors here. Meanwhile, Golden State should certainly improve offensively w/ Thompson back in the fold. They shot just 39.6% from the floor in Game 3, their LOWEST field goal percentage in any game this postseason. Without Durant, the Dubs had managed just fine, losing only one time (Game 1 in Toronto). Steph Curry has shown he's more than capable of picking up the scoring slack, which should be assumed considering he's a former league MVP himself. Curry just went for 47 points in Game 3, his career playoff high. You have to assume Golden State will be a lot better on both ends of the floor here. They are 8-3 ATS following a SU loss going back to the regular season. Not since X-Mas have they been off a DD loss and lost again their next time out. 10* Golden State |
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06-02-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -2 | Top | 109-104 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 27 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): Purveyors of the famed "zig zag theory" (bet the ATS loser of the previous game) may be quick to hop on the Warriors here, but allow me to pump the brakes on that notion right off that. Isn't a big part of the zig zag theory anti-public perception (i.e. buy low on a team that just lost)? My read here is that most are going to expect Golden State to bounce back from the 118-109 loss in Game 1. But for all the same reasons I liked the Raptors in the series, I like them again here. They're again undervalued. They play great defense. Kevin Durant is still out. So lay the short number w/ the home team. Golden State was off a long layoff going into Game 1 as they swept Portland in the Western Conference Finals. But that was a highly misleading sweep to say the least. In three of the four games, they trailed an inferior Blazers squad by double digits. Before that series, no team in NBA Playoff history had ever come back to win TWO straight when trailing by that many. The loss of Durant has become an underrated factor because the Warriors were able to sweep that last series (and because they closed out Houston w/o his services). I'd like to now reiterate something I said in my Game 1 analysis & that's the Dubs have been one of the WORST teams to bet on this season. Only the Lakers & Knicks had worse regular season ATS records. Something else worth reiterating is that Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs. They held the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. Golden State was obviously held under its season average in Game 1. 10* Toronto |
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05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors -1 | Top | 109-118 | Win | 100 | 104 h 16 m | Show |
10* Toronto (9:05 ET): Despite being w/o Kevin Durant for (at least) Game 1, Golden State enters the NBA Finals as a prohibitive favorite for a fifth consecutive year. Of course, twice they made it here w/o Durant's services, but one of those was their only Finals loss. Unlike the previous four years, the Warriors will not be playing the Cleveland Cavaliers (no more LeBron!). Instead, it will be the Toronto Raptors. Interestingly enough, this will also be the 1st time the Dubs do NOT have home court advantage in the NBA Finals. Despite being prohibitive favorites to win this series, they have been bet to the underdog role for Gm 1 after opening as an ever-so slight favorite. I completely agree w/ the line move and will take the Raptors here as my *10* Game of the Year! Toronto has played outstanding defense in the playoffs, holding the previous three opponents (Orlando, Philadelphia & Milwaukee) to 99.6 PPG on 41.7% shooting. At home is where the numbers get real impressive, especially if you take away the fact that Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was a double overtime game (where Toronto barely trailed). Do that and the Raptors are giving up just under 96 PPG in regulation here at the Air Canada Centre. They just held the Bucks, who were the only team to average more points per game in the regular season than the Warriors, to 102 pts or less in regulation each of the last four games. So I do believe they are capable of limiting the Durant-less Dubs offensively here at home. Golden State certainly has the edge in rest coming into the Finals. They last played a game on May 20th, giving them a full nine days off heading into Game 1. But that brings up the old "rest vs. rust" debate. Their turnarounds were much quicker between the last two series. Then there is the matter that the Warriors trailed by DOUBLE DIGITS in each of the last three games against Portland. No team in NBA history had ever rallied from B2B 13+ pt deficits to win in the playoffs, let alone three straight times. Toronto has Kawhi Leonard, who has been a man possessed this postseason, averaging 31.2 PPG on better than 50% shooting. Golden State had one of the worst ATS records in the league in the regular season and was 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Raptors. 10* Toronto |
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05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): The Raptors are now leading this series, three games to two, and quite frankly deserve to be up. Aside from a poor performance in Game 2 at Milwaukee, they have outplayed the Bucks. They easily could have won Game 1 (but blew the lead late). Games 3 & 4 here in Toronto were basically wire to wire victories (even though the former went to double overtime). Then in Game 5, they gave the Bucks a taste of their own medicine in rallying to steal a win. That upset was the 1st SU win by a road team in the ECF and now has Toronto knocking on the door of their first ever NBA Finals appearance. I'll lay the short number w/ them at home. That the Raptors were able to win on the road - despite shooting only 36.9% from the floor - is a minor miracle. They came back from an early double digit deficit, led by Kawhi Leonard's 35 points, to win 105-99 as a 7.5-pt underdog. Now they're back home where they are 7-2 SU in the playoffs. But what's been most impressive of all about the Raptors has been their defense. They're allowing just 99.9 PPG in the playoffs, on 41.2% shooting. The last three games have seen them hold the Bucks, the league's top scoring team from the regular season, to 102 pts or less in regulation. Even more impressive is that no opponent has scored more than 104 in regulation here in Toronto during the playoffs. I had the Under in Game 5 and called for the Raptors' bench to cool significantly after the hot shooting from Game 4. Well, now that they're back "North of the Border," I expect the bench to be a factor again. Admittedly, it is tough to pick the Bucks' season to end, but the Game 5 loss was a crusher. That the Raptors have shot barely above 40% in the series and have a chance to close things out is a bad sign for Milwaukee. I expect another offensive game from Toronto similar to Game 4. 10* Toronto |
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05-21-19 | Bucks v. Raptors +2.5 | Top | 102-120 | Win | 102 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:35 ET): My condolences to anyone who may have had the Under in Game 3, which was an all-time bad beat as it took not one, but TWO overtimes to send the game Over the total. Toronto was definitely happy w/ the result, however, as the 118-112 win enabled them to "get back" in the series. Now only down 2-1 in the series (as opposed to the 3-0 "death knell"), a win here by the Raptors would reduce this Eastern Conference Finals to a best of three affair. I cashed the home dog last night in a "must-win" scenario and while they didn't win, they were covering virtually wire to wire. I'll take the points again tonight. Had it not been for OT, Game 3 would have marked the seventh straight home game that Toronto held its opponent below 100 pts. That's a pretty remarkable accomplishment in the modern NBA. For the entire playoffs, they are holding teams to 99.8 points per game on 41.2% shooting. At home, the PPG allowed average drops to 95.3. The most pts they've allowed in regulation for any home playoff game is 104. Coming into this series, they'd allowed 100+ pts in just 3 of 12 playoff games and two of those were on the road. The Raptors were definitely outclassed in Game 2 at Milwaukee, but led most of the way in both Games 1 and 3. Game 1 was an infamous chokejob, similar to what we saw from Portland throughout the Western Conference Finals. Toronto led that game by as many as 13 and was up seven entering the 4th quarter. Game 3 did see them outscored in each of the final three quarters, however, the Bucks led just twice in the entire game: 2-0 and then 105-103 in double overtime. I feel the Raptors should be favored in this game (as they were in Game 3). 8* Toronto |
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05-20-19 | Warriors v. Blazers +4 | Top | 119-117 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): It's all come down to this for the Blazers, who must win tonight or their season is over. Obviously, their chances of coming back to take this series currently rank somewhere between slim and none. But considering they've led each of the last two games by double digits at halftime, I won't hesitate in backing them at home. Especially now that they are an underdog, which was not the case for Game 3. Also, Portland is 12-1 ATS at home the L2 seasons when playing w/ revenge for a double digit loss (lost Game 3 by 11 points). Take the points here. Coming into this series, no team in NBA history had ever won B2B playoff games in which it trailed by more than 13 points. That's changed now w/ the Warriors doing just that in both Games 2 and 3. Game 2 was bad enough as Portland blew an eight-point lead w/ just over four minutes to go (and they led by 15 at half). But Game 3 may have been even worse as the Blazers led that game by as many as 18 in the first half, at home, and not only didn't win, but they didn't cover either. It was a double digit loss (110-99) where they were held to a measly 33 points after halftime. Portland averages 118 PPG at home for the year, so we should a bounce back performance offensively tonight, at least relative to the second half disaster from Saturday. They scored 66 points in the first half, so they're certainly capable of scoring against this Warriors team, which by the way remains w/o both Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins. Sure, the Warriors still have three other All Stars on the roster, a luxury almost unheard of in the history of this league. But they are also 1-7 ATS their L8 games following an ATS win and also 19-42-2 ATS when off a double digit victory. 10* Portland |
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05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): Needless to say, the Blazers have to have this game. They blew a "golden" (pun intended!) opportunity to steal one on the road, losing Game 2 114-111 after leading almost the whole way. It was in many ways reminiscent of what happened to Toronto in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now we know how the follow-up for the Raptors went (they were blown out), but I think it'll be different for Portland as they are at home for Game 3 and in a virtual "must-win" situation. The Blazers are 4-1 ATS following a SU loss in the playoffs, including covering Game 2. Lay the short number here. Portland was up 15 at halftime in Game 2 and looked well on their way to pulling the outright upset. Even w/ just over four minutes to go in the game, they were up eight and that was after the Warriors came back to tie things up after three quarters. But that's when the wheels came off as Golden State ended the game on a 14-3 run. As disappointing a loss as it was, I fully expect the Blazers to play better here at home. They didn't really shoot the ball well in either of the first two games w/ Damian Lillard being the biggest offender at just 10 of 28 overall from the field. At home, the Blazers average 118.1 PPG, which is well up from the 109.9 PPG they average on the road. When Kevin Durant was lost to injury, I said you should expect Steph Curry to pick up the scoring load for the Warriors. That's exactly what has happened w/ the former league MVP scoring 30+ points in each of the L3 games. But now that they're playing on the road, don't be surprised to see Golden State struggle a bit more to score. By the way, Portland has not lost three straight games since early December. Since that time, they are 6-0 SU off B2B losses, covering the spread five times. Lillard is going to play better here and the Blazers will win. 10* Portland |
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05-17-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): Each of the last two nights in the NBA playoffs, we've seen the underdog lose (straight up) in the most painful way possible, that being giving away the lead late after losing most of the game. Portland was up by 15 at halftime last night, but at least they still ended up covering (+7.5). Toronto couldn't even do that, even after leading almost the entirety of Game 1 here in Milwaukee. The Raptors, specifically Kawhi Leonard, wilted late and didn't score a single basket over the final four minutes. The end result was them losing 108-100 as a 6.5-pt underdog. As the final seconds of Game 1 ticked away, the announcers were not shy about "shoveling some dirt" on the Raptors' proverbial grave. "This is like losing two games," they exclaimed. Reggie Miller and Chris Webber are of course both pretty bad and I think the demise of Toronto has been greatly exaggerated here. Again, the did lead almost the entire way in Game 1. We're not necessarily asking them to win tonight, they only need to cover. Given how good they have been defensively in the playoffs (only 96.9 PPG allowed), covering the spread is more than reasonable here. What makes the Game 1 result all the more infuriating for the Raptors is that Kyle Lowry played very well, scoring 30 points on 10 of 15 shooting (made seven three-pointers). But Leonard faded badly down the stretch (fatigue?) w/ only two points in the fourth quarter (still ended up w/ a team-high 31). Pascal Siakam (15 pts) was the only other Raptor in double figures, so it'll need to be more of a "team effort" this time around. Again, definitely possible and make note of the fact Toronto is 10-1 ATS this season when coming off 3 or more ATS losses. They have not lost B2B games SU since late March. 10* Toronto |
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05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): This will be just the second time this postseason that the Raptors have been underdogs. Given the kind of defense we've seen from them in the first two rounds, this would seem to be a nice value. The only previous time they were getting points in these playoffs was Game 4 of the Philadelphia series (+2), a contest they actually opened as the slight favorite and wound up winning outright, 101-96. I had them there. While I won't guarantee an outright victory this time around, taking the points is definitely the way to go in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. As stated above, the defense we're seeing from the Raptors in the playoffs has been pretty remarkable. They are giving up just 96 PPG on 41.3% shooting. Now they will be facing the top scoring team in the league now, but I think Toronto will be up to the challenge. Just twice in the last 11 games have the Raptors given up over 100 points. While both exceptions came on the road (at Philadelphia), don't think for a second that Toronto won't be able to score here as well. They average 113.1 PPG and while they hit that average only once in the Philly series, don't be surprised at a breakout offensive performance tonight. Milwaukee had a much easier time than expected w/ Boston in Round 2. That has them as the overwhelming favorite to win this series. But, make no mistake, the Raptors are a better team than the dysfunctional Celtics. The Bucks also lost Game 1 to Boston on this court. That's their only loss of the postseason, but still. There is a question of "rest vs. rust" here w/ Milwaukee having been off for so long (last played exactly one week ago). And the Bucks' track record is not good in this spot as they are just 5-14-1 ATS the L20 times they've played on three or more days rest. 10* Toronto |
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05-14-19 | Blazers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
8* Portland (9:05 ET): Considering the Blazers were able to win twice in Denver (who had the league's best home record), there's no reason to doubt they can't win a game at Golden State. Plus the Warriors are playing without their best player Kevin Durant. Now we certainly can't discount the embarrassment of riches the Dubs enjoy, talent-wise. They still have Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green. But this was a team that was certainly susceptible to losing at home in the regular season and they lost twice here in the 1st round to the Clippers. They are only 18-28-1 ATS in all home games for the year. Take the points in Game 1. Golden State won all three home games in the Houston series, but those three victories were by a total of 15 points and none by greater than six. When they went into Game 6 at Houston w/o Durant, there was a pretty clear overadjustment by the oddsmakers in terms of both the side and total. It was the most points the Warriors were getting for any playoff game under HC Steve Kerr and they took advantage by pulling an outright upset. But, here, it appears as if they (meaning the oddsmakers) have overcompensated the "other way" in that there seems as if there's been NO adjustment for Durant's absence. Portland did win here once in the regular season, right after Christmas, 110-109 as nine-point underdogs (in OT). Overall, they split the four regular season meetings. The Warriors were at "full strength" in all four of those games as well. Both losses found Golden State coming in extra motivated. They were on a four-game losing streak (longest of the Kerr-era) heading into the season's first meeting and then it was the second game of a home and home (Portland won the first) the other time they beat the Blazers. No such additional motivation is present here. If anything, I expect Portland to be the more motivated side. 8* Portland |