Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-20-19 | Magic +4.5 v. Raptors | Top | 97-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Well, I tried fading Toronto on Monday and that went about as poorly as possible. What was a close game at halftime quickly turned into a 132-96 blowout of Charlotte. For Orlando, this will be their second try "North of the Border" this year as they lost here 104-95 as a 4.5-pt dog back on October 28th. I'll also go w/ a second try fading the Raptors as their two key injuries (Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka) are bound to catch up w/ them. Take the points. After a slow start, the Magic have played much better of late. They come into this game on a three-game winning streak. All three victories have seen the team score at least 111 points as they've now hit triple digits in six straight. That's significant because they failed to score 100 in any of their first seven games this year (2-5 SU). Since then, they're 4-2 SU. Defense has not been an issue for Orlando as they lead the Eastern Conference in points allowed at 101.5 per game. The last time these teams met, the Magic's leading scorer Nikola Vucevic was held to just five points on 1 of 13 shooting. Vucevic has since been named Eastern Conference Player of the Week. He's delivered seven straight double doubles and posted season-highs in both points (30) and rebounds (17) on Sunday vs. Washington. Much will be made of the fact Orlando is 0-4 on the road while Toronto is 5-0 at home. But those injuries to Lowry and Ibaka will take their toll on the Raptors. Against Charlotte, they got career best point totals from two players, OG Anunoby and Terence Davis II. That isn't likely to repeat itself. The Magic have lost five straight to the Raptors going back to LY's 1st round playoff exit. They want revenge. 10* Orlando |
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11-19-19 | New Mexico +1 v. UTEP | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (9:00 ET): This battle of unbeatens finds New Mexico departing campus for the first time, but it won't be a long trip for the Lobos as they head to El Paso to face annual rival UTEP. This will be the fourth season in a row these schools are playing and while the home team is 3-0 SU, it has been the Miners leaving w/ the cash on every occasion. But compared to last year, this number has changed dramatically as UTEP was a 16-pt dog when it covered LY in Albuquerque (lost 84-78). They are 8-1-1 ATS the L10 meetings w/ UNM, but this could be the first time since '99 that they go off as the favorite. New Mexico's four wins have not only all come at home, but they've all been by double digits. The most recent was a 90-80 triumph against McNeese State on Sunday in spite of allowing 50.9% shooting. In the first three games, the Lobos never allowed higher than 44.4% shooting. At the same time, they've scored at least 90 in every contest. In three of the four games, they've had five players finish in double figures. This is a good team. UTEP has held its first three overmatched opponents to an average of 59.0 PPG. They did defeat a New Mexico State team who is awaiting on deck for New Mexico. The Miners were 2.5-pt home underdogs in that game, which they won 65-50. Their other two wins came against non-DI opponents. There has been one common opponent for these two teams, that being Eastern New Mexico, whom New Mexico defeated by 21 and UTEP beat by 14. I simply feel that the better team here is the one that opened as an underdog. Don't be surprised if this number "jumps the fence" prior to tipoff. 10* New Mexico |
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11-18-19 | Texas-San Antonio v. Utah State -19 | Top | 50-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
8* Utah State (9:00 ET): Utah State deserves to be ranked #17 in the country as they have dominated all four of their games so far. This was an NCAA Tournament team last year as they won 28 games and the Mountain West. Four of the five starters from that team are back for 2019-20. Keep in mind that sophomore center Neemias Queta has yet to suit up this season due to a knee injury. The Aggies have had a different leading scorer in every game thus far. UTSA's start to the year couldn't be more opposite of what we've seen from Utah State. The Roadrunners are 0-4 and have failed to cover every game. Every loss has been by double digits and what's really shocking is that they were favored to win three of the four games. They haven't played since last Sunday when they lost at home to Delaware, 91-79. So you know UTSA is going to be ready coming into this one. The problem is they simply aren't on Utah State's level. There is a chance Quete could play here (listed as questionable), but even if he doesn't, the Aggies have shown they can do just fine w/o him. They've scored at least 81 pts in every game, all of them having taken place here in Logan. Since only beating Montana State by eight in the season opener, they've won by 55, 41 and 27 points. Still I'm not sure if the oddsmakers have properly accounted for how good this team is just yet. UTSA's shooting has been exceptionally poor thus far and USU is allowing an overall FG% of just 35.0. On the flip side, UTSA has also really struggled to defend and USU has shot 55% of better twice in the L3 games. 8* Utah State |
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11-18-19 | Hornets +9 v. Raptors | Top | 96-132 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Generous number here for Hornets team that has won two in a row. Sure, both wins were razor-thin as they beat the Pistons by three and the Knicks by one. But that doesn't mean they can't stick w/ the defending NBA Champs, who are severely hampered by injuries right now, the most notable being the one to Kyle Lowry's thumb that has him out indefinitely. Serge Ibaka is also out w/ an ankle injury. Without those two key players, the Raptors should not be favored by this many points. Not much was expected from Charlotte this season due to Kemba Walker leaving for Boston. So them being 6-7 SU is somewhat of a surprise. All six wins have come by 7 pts or less, four of those by 3 pts or less. So eventually they will regress. But with the exception of a few games, they've been competitive with everybody. The L3 games have all been decided in the closing seconds. They're a solid 7-4 ATS as underdogs and 5-1 ATS on the road. This play is probably more of a fade on Toronto than anything else. The Raptors, specifically Pascal Siakam, showed signs of wearing down in Saturday's 110-102 loss to the Mavericks. Siakam, who has had to carry the scoring burden w/ Lowry out, scored just 15 pts on 6 of 24 shooting in that last game. On average, Raptors' home games have been pretty high scoring so far. But they probably won't maintain the offensive efficiency due to the injuries. At the defensive end, giving up 112.5 PPG at home is concerning. 8* Charlotte |
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11-17-19 | Hawks +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 101-122 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:35 ET): This West Coast swing is not going well for the Hawks as they've lost three of the first four games. Things went from bad to worse last night as they gave up 150 points to the Clippers. The road trip ends tonight, but at least the Hawks don't have to go anywhere as they're back at Staples Center, this time to face the Lakers. Given how LeBron James and company have looked so far, this isn't exactly what I'd call a "great spot" for the visitors. But they are getting a lot of points against a team that doesn't have that many double digit wins this year. Take the points. For what it's worth, sharp money seemed like it was on the Hawks last night. The number was bet down considerably as they closed as nine-point dogs after opening +13. Obviously, that was a bad read (we didn't take them), but it does show that savvy bettors do seem to have more faith in this team than the oddsmakers. Chalk last night up to "one of those games" as the Hawks shot horrifically (37.8%) while allowing the Clippers to shoot 53.8% overall and 51.5% from three-point range. They probably won't have a worse loss all season. The Lakers come in red hot as they've gone 10-1 their L11 games. But they could only beat Sacramento by two on Friday, a game they were favored to win by 10.5 points. LA trailed by 10 after the first quarter and from there it was a scramble just to earn a SU win. The Kings went undermanned into that game, so there is hope for the Hawks here. Their stock could not possibly be lower coming off a loss like the one they suffered last night, so we will "buy low" and take the points. 10* Atlanta |
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11-17-19 | Bengals +11.5 v. Raiders | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (4:25 ET): Yes, I'm backing Cincinnati this week, the same team that just got beat 49-13 last week and is now 0-9 SU on the season. Going back to the end of last season, the Bengals have lost their last 11 regular season games. There is some merit in taking this team in this spot, but make no mistake about it - this play is more about fading the Raiders, who are laying double digits. Yes, the Raiders are laying double digits to an actual NFL team. That's happened just one time since Week 2 of the 2003 season! Obviously, you should take the points here. Things escalated quickly for the Bengals last week against Baltimore as they basically let Lamar Jackson run wild. However, there were some fluke things that happened along the way that contributed to the game getting so out of hand. QB Ryan Finley, making his first career NFL start, had two turnovers returned for touchdowns. Turnovers aside, I actually thought Finley didn't play all that poorly. The Bengals weren't outgained that severely and actually ended up w/ one more first down than the Ravens. All the big plays went Baltimore's way, but that's not who Cincy is facing this week. Instead, they are facing a team that has yet to win a game by more than eight points in 2019. Somehow, someway, Jon Gruden has constructed a playoff contender out in Oakland. What a way to go out as the franchise is set to move to Las Vegas next season. But even though they are playoff contenders, the Raiders have still been outscored by 32 points, a worse margin than the 3-6 Broncos. They've not only been outscored, but also outgained this year. Last Thursday vs. the Chargers, they won largely because of a +3 turnover margin, one of them an INT that was returned for a TD. They finished w/ eight fewer first downs than the Chargers. Over the L3 seasons, the Raiders are not only 0-3 ATS when coming off B2B SU wins, they are 0-3 SU as well. Add it up and this is one of the weakest DD favorites in recent memory. 8* Cincinnati |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs +6 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 10 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): When I chose Atlanta as our top NFL side for last week, admittedly there wasn't much belief that the Falcons could win straight up. After all, they were two touchdown underdogs to a Saints team that hadn't lost since Week 2. But win straight up is precisely what the Dirty Birds did. The most shocking thing of all is just how dominant a SU victory it ended up being. A previously non-existent pass rush showed up in a major way for Atlanta w/ 6 sacks and 11 QB hits and they led pretty much from start to finish in what ended up being a 26-9 final. After taking a loss like that, the Saints will be expected to bounce back this week. I'm here to tell you "not so fast." In fact, you should once again take the points against them. There are some real issues w/ this Saints' offense right now. In nine games this season, they have scored a grand total of 25 first quarter points. Sunday marked the 4th game this season the offense failed to score a TD in the first three quarters. That's some pretty shocking stuff. Furthermore, despite having a 7-2 SU record, this has been far from a dominant team. Five of the Saints' seven victories this year have been by 7 pts or less. They only have a +22 YTD point differential and are only outscoring opponent by 2.5 PPG. This week will actually mark the 1st time all season that New Orleans has been a road favorite! Conversely, Tampa Bay is a team that's played much better than its 3-6 SU record would seem to suggest. They have actually outgained their opponents over the course of the year. Looking at their six losses, four have been by 7 pts or less. One was in New Orleans, 31-24, back in Week 5. That was the second of B2B road games for the Bucs, who were coming off a shocking 55-40 drubbing of the Rams in LA. We know this team can score as LW's 30-27 win over Arizona marked the 5th time this season TB has scored 30+ pts. That's the same number as the Saints. The Bucs are only being outscored by 2.1 PPG this season. Being able to finally win a close game last week I think will give the Bucs some much needed confidence going into this game. Keep in mind that this game is outdoors where the Saints traditionally don't fare as well. After six straight ATS losses, it's time for the Bucs to finish "in the money" and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-16-19 | UCLA +21.5 v. Utah | Top | 3-49 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 22 m | Show |
10* UCLA (8:00 ET): Since suffering a Friday night loss at USC back in September, Utah has looked like one of the best teams in the entire country. They've gone 5-0 SU and ATS, winning by an average of 25.6 points per game. But I'll call for that streak to end this week (at least the ATS one) as they play host to a UCLA team that has clearly improved in Chip Kelly's second year at Westwood. If you remember, I was on the USC upset of Utah. While the Utes arguably outplayed the Trojans that night, it was still a loss. Here, it's a lot of points to lay in what could be a flat spot. UCLA has won three straight, all by double digits, and could actually move into a 1st place tie w/ the Utes were they to pull the outright upset Saturday night. Like Utah, they are coming off a bye. I actually think that favors the dog in this situation. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely here, the Bruins are definitely much better equipped to face the Utes than they've been in recent years. Their offense has run for 200+ yards in five straight games, so it will be interesting to see if Utah's top ranked run defense can slow that attack down. As dominant as Utah's winning streak looks, they actually trailed Washington by double digits two weeks ago and were still losing entering the 4th quarter. UCLA has lost three in a row to Utah, the last two each coming by 31 points. I'm sure that will be on the minds of the coaching staff and players as they take the field at Rice-Eccles Stadium. Bowl eligibility is also hanging in the balance for the Bruins. To get there, they've still got to win two more games. They'll be favored to beat Cal in the regular season finale at home. But they'll still need to win either here or next week against rival USC. Bottom line is I expect a strong effort from the Bruins here. They have covered four of six games as an underdog this year, winning three of them outright. Three of the past five games, the Bruins' defense has allowed 20 points or less and the last game saw them hold Colorado to a season-low 14. Take the points. 10* UCLA |
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11-16-19 | Bucks -6 v. Pacers | Top | 102-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): It appears as if the oddsmakers won't be letting off the Bucks "quite as easy" this year. Last season, the Bucks made the "quantum leap" into the NBA's elite by winning 60 regular season games and posting the best ATS record in the league. By any account, this season is off to a successful start as the team is 8-3 SU and won six of its last seven games while leading the league in scoring (120.3 PPG). But they're 0-4 ATS the L4 games. Look for that streak to end tonight as the Bucks catch Indiana playing in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. Indiana lost to Houston last night, 111-102, despite limiting the Rockets to just 40.4% shooting, including 14 of 46 from three-point range. The Pacers' own shooting was their undoing as they made just 24.2% from behind the three-point line. It was only the second loss in nine games for Indiana, the other coming by two points (in OT) at Charlotte. But my guess is they won't do as good a job at defending the three-point line tonight as they did against the Rockets. That means trouble when facing a team as prolific as Milwaukee. The Bucks are 4th in the league in three-point makes (13.9 per game) and 2nd in attempts (41.2 per game). Overall, they are shooting 47.3% from the floor and rank 2nd in offensive efficiency. They're also a very respectable 7th in defensive efficiency after leading the league in that department last season. The Bucks are rested and seven of their eight wins have been by at least five points. 10* Milwaukee |
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11-16-19 | Air Force -10 v. Colorado State | Top | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 55 h 18 m | Show |
10* Air Force (7:00 ET): Air Force got an unexpected bye last week due to the tragic death of a New Mexico player. Originally, this week was set to conclude a brutal stretch of 10 games in 10 weeks for the Flyboys and be their sixth road trip during that time. So the bye, while coming under the worst of circumstances, probably couldn't have come at a better time. Colorado State is also off a bye, their second in four weeks. The surprising Rams have won three in a row and covered five of their last six, but they are not a team I happen to believe in. I'm going to lay the points. After four straight 7-6 seasons under Mike Bobo, Colorado State fell to 3-9 SU last year. They expected improvement in Fort Collins this year, but things did not look good early w/ a 1-5 SU start that included a 21-point loss to a Colorado team that Air Force beat on the road. Despite winning their last three games, let's not lose sight of the fact CSU has won only one game all year in which it was an underdog. That was an upset of Fresno State three weeks ago. The Rams have still been outscored on the year and a defense which has not been able to stop the AFA triple option in the past still remains a liability. After going 5-7 SU each of the last two years, Air Force has also improved in 2019. Only they've looked a lot more impressive in doing so. They've won four straight to get to 7-2 and have outscored opponents by 77 points during the win streak. I've had my finger on the pulse, taking them as a short favorite against Utah State (won 31-7) and then fading them as 16-pt chalk against Army (only won 17-13). Colorado State is clearly a much more favorable matchup than Army as the Falcons have beaten the Rams 12 of the last 15 tries, including each of the last three years where they've averaged 430.3 yards rushing per game! As alluded to above, CSU's run defense still isn't any good as they've still allowed 183.7 YPG over land during their 3-game win streak. On the other side of the ledger, the AFA defense ranks 9th nationally at stopping the run (97 YPG allowed) and Colorado State lost its leading rusher to a suspension. 10* Air Force |
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11-16-19 | Louisiana Tech +8.5 v. Creighton | Top | 72-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
10* La Tech (6:00 ET): Off to a 2-0 start, Louisiana Tech is about to be tested for the 1st time as they pay a visit to Creighton. The Bulldogs have won both games by 33+ points and are averaging 90.0 PPG on better than 50% shooting. They held Texas A&M-CC and Wiley College to just 31% from the floor. While such wins really don't tell you a lot about a team, I feel that the contingent from Ruston makes for a LIVE underdog tonight. They are catching Creighton in a bad spot. Take the points. Creighton just lost to Michigan on Tuesday, 79-69 as 5.5-point dogs. They did lead at halftime, but couldn't slow down the Wolverines in the 2nd half. The Bluejays ended up allowing a 56.6 FG% for the game and that simply isn't going to cut it against a La Tech that's shot the lights out so far. Guarding the three-point line wasn't as easy against Michigan as it was vs. Kennesaw State (who went 3 for 20) and that could be a sign of things to come here. It's not easy winning here in Omaha where Creighton has gone 30-8 SU its L38 games. But the Bluejays are also 0-3 ATS the L3 times they've been asked to lay between 9.5 and 12 points on their own floor. Incredibly, they are also just 3 for 10 from FT line in two games! They don't have a single starter taller than 6'7". Despite grabbing 18 offensive rebounds against Michigan, they got only 13 pts off them, a shocking lack of efficiency. La Tech is an explosive offensive team that is great at forcing turnovers and this game will be a nice way to make it up to the fine folks in Ruston still angry about last night's loss on the football field. 10* La Tech |
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri +7 | Top | 23-6 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 18 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): QB Kelly Bryant is set to return this week and that changes the whole dynamic for a Tigers team that has lost three in a row. All three of those losses, including 27-0 to Georgia last week, have been on the road. Clearly, without Bryant last week, they could get nothing going against one of the nation's top defenses. But now they are back in Columbia where they are a perfect 5-0 SU this season and have won every game by double digits! I'm not ready to give up on this team as last week was actually the 1st time all year that they were getting points! Florida has admittedly looked impressive this year as they are 8-2 SU (only losses are to LSU & Georgia). Coming off their own loss to Georgia (24-17), the Gators bounced back in a major way last week by shutting out Vandy 56-0. That was a game where I had the Over and the Gators did all the work themselves in punching me a winning ticket. But they were only up 14-0 at halftime before exploding for 28-point 3Q that included a defensive TD. Coming into the year, I did NOT expect this Gators team to match LY's 10-win total. I think the final two regular season games are going to be tricky. Unless UGA loses its next two (unlikely), then the Gators have nothing to play for (can't win division). That makes them prime fade material in my opinion. Bryant and the home field edge are both huge factors in handicapping this game, but there is even more evidence to support a play on the underdog this week. Missouri has beaten Florida the L2 years by a combined 50 points and has won four of the six games as SEC rivals. Also, the Tigers have the SEC's #1 pass defense (147.7 YPG allowed) and that's key going against one-dimensional Florida offense that can't really run the ball. With Bryant in at QB, this team was once 5-1 and ranked in the Top 25. Really, every Tigers loss this year (besides last week) is pretty head-scratching. Take the points. 8* Missouri |
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11-15-19 | Spurs v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 109-111 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): These teams seem to be going in different directions of late. The Spurs actually opened 3-0, but failed to cover the spread in all three games. That was a pretty clear signal that they might be overrated and sure enough, they have since lost six of eight. Three straight losses where they failed to cover the spread every time now have them at 2-9 ATS on the year, which is the league's worst record at the betting window. Unlike previous editions under HC Greg Popovich, this Spurs team is terrible defensively as it ranks 24th in efficiency. Lay the points w/ Orlando here. The Magic's season started out poorly as they lost six of their first eight games and failed to break 100 points in any of the first seven. But they've since collected a couple wins, including an impressive 112-97 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. That was their second highest scoring game of the year as seven players finished in double figures. Meanwhile, defense has not been an issue. They are 1st in the NBA in points allowed, giving up just 99.1 PPG. They are even stingier here at home where the average drops to 96.3 PPG allowed. I look for Orlando to take advantage of San Antonio's recent defensive decline tonight. The Spurs' most recent loss, which was at Minnesota Wednesday night, marked the third time this season they've allowed 120+ points. It was also the second time they've allowed that many in the last three games. The last five San Antonio opponents have combined to shoot 50.2% from the field. So, if the Magic can take advantage of that and play their trademark defense, this should be a pretty easy victory. The Spurs are 0-4 ATS against the Eastern Conference. 10* Orlando |
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11-14-19 | Nets v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 93-101 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:35 ET): With Kyrie Irving's status in limbo (questionable w/ shoulder injury), this is a good time to play against the already struggling Nets. They'll definitely be w/o Caris LeVert, who has a right thumb sprain. Tonight's game in Denver comes on the heels of Brooklyn blowing a double digit lead in Utah two nights ago, a game they ended up losing 119-114. This has simply not been a good team thus far and they're playing their 4th consecutive game out West in a seven-day span. Lay the points. Denver is also in off a loss, although theirs was less concerning to me. Now the numbers do indicate a poor defensive effort took place against Atlanta on Tuesday. The Hawks scored 125 points w/ 42 of them coming from Trae Young (his season-high) and shot 53% overall, including 15 of 34 (44.1%) from 3-pt range. It was the most points allowed by the Nuggets this season and it came in a game they initially led 12-0. With one of the stronger home court advantages in the league, I expect nothing short of a full bounce back effort by Michael Malone's club. Brooklyn has just one road win all year and it came at the start of this trip, in Portland. Since then, they've been blitzed by Phoenix (allowed 138 pts) and blew the DD lead in Utah. The Nets have been just terrible defensively as they allow 121.4 PPG, second most in the league. This does not seem like the spot where they will fix that issue. Then to make matters worse, the offense is set to suffer w/o LeVert and possibly Irving. Prior to the Atlanta game, the Nuggets had held four straight opponents under 100 points. They are 6th in the league in defensive efficiency while Brooklyn is 26th. 8* Denver |
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11-14-19 | Steelers +3 v. Browns | Top | 7-21 | Loss | -113 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): The Browns' 19-16 win over the Bills last week, ugly as it was, has some convinced that this team has a viable path to the playoffs. Such a line of thinking goes back to just how overrated this team was at the start of the season. Take it from someone who cashed a winning ticket on the Browns (-2.5) last week. This team is NOT going to the playoffs. Not unless something serious changes as this team makes far too many mistakes, bogs down in the red zone at an incredible rate and is just plain poorly coached. I'm taking the points in the Thursday night AFC North matchup. Now Pittsburgh is a team that I believe has a viable track to getting a Wild Card in the depth-shy AFC. Left for dead because of the Ben Roethlisberger injury, the Steelers have all of a sudden won four straight. Before the season, this was my pick to win the division. That's likely out the window now, but at 5-4, making the playoffs is not. Other than New England, no team has been able to beat the Steelers by more than four points this year. Their four losses are to the Patriots, Seahawks, 49ers and Ravens. Those teams are a combined 31-6 SU right now! With Big Ben out, the "Steel Curtain" is back as the defense has given up just 67 pts during the 4-game win streak. The Browns have topped 23 points in just two games all year. Baker Mayfield has regressed badly and actually sports a negative TD-INT ratio. Let's not forget how Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North rivalry like maybe no other division rivalry in the sport. Since Cleveland returned to the league in 1999, they have gone just 6-34-1 SU against the Black & Gold. During that time, the Browns have been favored only THREE times and lost two of them outright. I'm not going to say Steelers QB Mason Rudolph has been great, but the defense certainly has been. Last week against the Rams, they didn't allow an offensive TD. The better team is getting points here and has a sizable coaching edge here to boot. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have excelled as underdogs, including a 9-2 ATS record the L3 seasons. 10* Pittsburgh |
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11-14-19 | Buffalo v. Kent State +6.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show |
10* Kent State (7:00 ET): Kent State has only been bowling twice in program history w/ the last time being 2012 (other was 1972!). In order to snap that drought, this year's Golden Flashes (3-6 SU) are going to need to win out. That may seem like a tall mountain to climb, but looking at the schedule, it's actually doable. Up first is this Thursday night home game w/ Buffalo. At 5-4, the Bulls need just one more win to gain bowl eligibility and they've got the home finale vs. lowly Bowling Green in their back pocket. I'm not entirely sure why the line has shot up so much for this matchup and will take the points! You'll probably hear that Buffalo has "momentum" coming into this game, but regular readers know my feeling that "momentum" is a dirty word. The Bulls have won three straight and are off B2B 43-point efforts, but they benefited from five Central Michigan turnovers in one of them and had a gigantic quarter against Eastern Michigan in their last game. The other win came again 0-10 Akron. This will somewhat shockingly be the 4th time in MAC play that the Bulls are road favorites. But the Akron game was the only time laying more than 1.5. While they were able to get the job vs. Eastern Michigan 12 days ago, Buffalo lost outright at Miami. Kent State has only played three of its nine games here at home. They are averaging 34.7 PPG at Dix Stadium, which is well above their season average on the road (just 20.0 PPG!) The offense is led by dual threat QB Dustin Crum. Not only does Crum's 67.9 completion percentage rank among the top 15 in the country, he also leads the team in rushing. Leading receiver Isaiah McKoy missed the Toledo game, but is expected back here. While the Golden Flashes have lost three in a row, every loss was by 7 pts or less and those were to three of the top teams in the conference. With their bowl eligibility hanging in the balance, the Flashes won't go down quietly. 10* Kent State |
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11-13-19 | Southern Utah v. BYU -12.5 | Top | 63-68 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
10* BYU (9:00 ET): BYU lost as a four-point favorite in its last game, falling to San Diego State 76-71 on Saturday. That same day, Southern Utah pulled off what will likely end up being the highlight of their season, a 79-78 upset of Nebraska where they rallied back from a double digit deficit in the second half. Those results set us up very nicely for a play on BYU here. Yes, the Cougars are a little short-handed right now (Yoeli Childs suspended). But they still led SDSU for much of the second half. It was a game they still should have won. Look for them to take out their frustrations tonight. Lay the points. Southern Utah trailed Nebraska by 11 at halftime and was down by as many as 14 early in the second half. The Thunderbirds made their shocking comeback thanks to some terrible Nebraska shooting down the stretch. The Cornhuskers finished the game at 37.0% overall and 19.2% from three-point range. Surprisingly, SUU was even worse from behind the arc. But they still earned their 1st win over a power conference program since 2003. They needed double overtime to do so as Cameron Oluyitan sank a 10-ft jumper w/ just two seconds left to give his team the upset win (were 7-pt underdogs). Though the schools have not met since 2007, BYU has dominated this in-state rivalry, winning 9 straight times from 99-07. Eight of the nine wins have been by double digits. As mentioned above, while Southern Utah had to come from behind to earn its latest victory, BYU "came from ahead" in its latest loss. Despite trailing at halftime, the Cougars were up eight w/ just under 13 minutes remaining. They were up seven w/ just over six minutes left. Playing at home, it's a game they should have won. Though part of the Maui Invitational, this game is being played in Provo and I don't see BYU suffering B2B home defeats. 10* BYU |
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11-13-19 | Wizards +9 v. Celtics | Top | 133-140 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): Despite being 8-1 SU and 1st in the Eastern Conference, Boston appears quite vulnerable going into tonight's home game vs. Washington. Winners of eight in a row, the Celtics have been "bit" by the injury bug. Gordon Hayward is out indefinitely after breaking his hand against the Spurs over the weekend. Big man Daniel Theis will join him on the bench w/ a sprained finger. Kemba Walker, who is the team's leading scorer, had to leave the last game w/ a case of whiplash. While Walker has been cleared to play tonight, I'm still taking the points in this matchup. If Washington can't compete here, then it's going to be a very LONG season. Honestly, it'll probably be a long season in the Nation's capital regardless, but this is a spot where the team should be ready to go. Coming off B2B losses, the Wizards have had the last four days off. That's a lot of time in between games, even with the "new" NBA schedule. The only other time this season that the Wiz took the floor w/ three or more days was the insane game vs. Houston (159-158 loss) where they did cover. They are 7-4 SU/ATS the L3 season w/ 3+ days rest. Though Walker seems like he's going to play, the Celtics are still short-handed and eventually that's going to catch up to them. The team shot 42.9% from three-point range against Dallas Monday, a percentage I don't believe is sustainable for them. Then again, Jayson Tatum shot 1 for 18 from the field in that game! But it was Walker bailing them out by scoring 24 of his team-high 29 pts in the 2nd half. They can't succeed like that every game though. Washington's leading scorer Bradley Beal had an off-night vs. Cleveland on Friday, missing 13 of 21 shots. He'll shoot better here. Despite being 2-6 SU, the Wizards are only being outscored by 4.1 PPG. 8* Washington |
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11-12-19 | New Mexico State -3 v. UTEP | Top | 50-65 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* New Mexico State (8:00 ET): This "border war" rounds out today's deep dive. Las Cruces and El Paso aren't too far away on the map, but I feel the schools hailing from those corresponding cities are a lot further apart than what the oddsmakers seem to think. New Mexico State has beaten UTEP nine straight times, including a four-point win here in El Paso last season. The number is lower for this year's visit and I'm not sure why as the teams are about the same. Lay the points. New Mexico State could not have had an easier opening game. Faced w/ an opponent that had zero chance, they quickly put Western New Mexico out of its misery. Now I realize that is a "nothing team" the Aggies beat, but the numbers were pretty staggering. The game started w/ 16-0 run. NMSU led 52-16 at the half and was up by as many as 52 in an eventual 92-46 victory. All 10 players that took the court scored. They allowed 28.6% shooting. Let's not forget that this New Mexico State team won 30 games last season and took Auburn to the wire (lost by 1) in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament. Five of its five losses were by six points or less! They have four starters back and figure to run through the WAC yet again. As for UTEP, it's 93-70 win over NM Highlands was not nearly as impressive as what NMSU did in its opener. The Miners actually turned the ball over 20 times and led by only nine w/ just over eight minutes remaining in the 2H. I think it's shocking this number is so low as the favorite is a really good team. 8* New Mexico State |
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11-12-19 | Chicago State +19.5 v. Eastern Illinois | Top | 34-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Chicago State (8:00 ET): I'm digging deep on the board tonight. Chicago State is a team that has averaged 94 points in its first two games, albeit not against the stiffest of competition. The Cougars opened with a 103-60 rout of Judson College, a NAIA school, a game in which they shot the lights out (56.3%!) and led by 20 at halftime. They then lost to Loyola (MD), 98-85 in the home opener. This time, it was the Cougars on the wrong end of some sharpshooting as Loyola made 60% of its field goal attempts in the 1st half. Expect better defense from them tonight as I'll take the points. This is obviously a big number for Eastern Illinois to lay in the wake of an 0-2 start. Now it was expected the Panthers would start 0-2 as they opened w/ road games against Texas Tech and Wisconsin. They did not do well at Texas Tech, losing 85-60, but were surprisingly competitive in Madison, losing by only 13 as 19-point underdogs. EIU was actually within three w/ just nine minutes to play and what makes that even more impressive is they were -17 in points at the free throw line for the game. That discrepancy basically determined the outcome of the game. While Eastern Illinois won't be facing that kind of free throw discrepancy tonight at home, I don't see a clear path to winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here. I know they faced two tough defensive teams, but a 56.0 PPG scoring average isn't exactly what you want to see from this large of a favorite. Especially when matched up w/ an underdog that you know can put the ball in the basket. Something to keep in mind is that Chicago State beat Eastern Illinois last year for their ONLY win over a D-I opponent the entire year (team finished 3-29). They are MUCH better this year. 8* Chicago State |
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11-12-19 | UL - Lafayette +18 v. TCU | Top | 65-98 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Let's continue the "deep dive" into tonight's College Hoops card w/ a play on UL Lafayette. The Ragin Cajuns are hoping for the same kind of success that the school's football team is having at the betting window this year (football team is 8-1 ATS, tied for best ATS record in the country w/ Ohio St). So far the basketball team is 2-0 SU, but neither game was lined. They defeated Loyola (NO) and McNeese State at home, by 28 and 5 points respectively. Take the points here as this number is way too high. TCU has played just one game and it was against Southwestern (TX), also a non-board opponent. The Horned Frogs won by 21 (83-62), but don't expect many more wins like that this season out of Ft. Worth. This team was picked to finish last in the Big 12. While leading scorer Desmond Bane is back, the next top four scorers from LY's team all departed. Bane did go for 26 against Southwestern, a D-III opponent, but it was shockingly just a three-point game shortly after halftime. So the final score there was a little misleading. Again, I won't be betting on TCU to win many games by large margins this year. UL Lafayette is picked to finish 5th in the Sun Belt. They too lost a lot of talent from LY's squad, but did bring in a key transfer (Jalen Johnson) from St. Louis. Also, the team's leading returning scorer, Cedric Russell, went for 22 pts against McNeese State. Giving the Ragin Cajuns hope here is the fact TCU was actually outrebounded in the opening game and allowed nearly 40% three-point shooting. 8* UL Lafayette |
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11-11-19 | Kent State v. Towson | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Towson (7:00 ET): Towson has played two games thus far, the last one being a glorified scrimmage, which they won 100-31 against D-III Bryn Athyn. As you can imagine, the numbers from that game were fairly outrageous for the Tigers as they took a 59-15 lead into halftime and held the opposition to 24% shooting for the game, including 0 for 12 on three-point attempts! While little can be derived from that kind of victory, there's no denying that Towson's first win (over George Washington) had some merit. The Tigers won that one 72-58, easily covering the 5.5-pt spread. I'll lay the points here in the first ever meeting w/ Kent State. Kent State has played just once so far and it was a non-lined affair vs. a D-III school. While they did go on to beat Hiram College 97-58, note that it was only a nine-point game at halftime, which is a little troubling. In the second half, the Golden Flashes did catch fire from three-point range. They ended up making 13 three-pointers in the game and it also helped that Hiram turned the ball over 21 times. Towson certainly isn't going to be as generous this evening though and this being a road game, I think it's smart to be a little leery of what Kent State can really do in this spot. Towson has been able to show off its depth in the first two games. The bench accounted for 65 of the 100 points last game as starters basically sat the entire 2H. Also, the defense has been outstanding so far w/ the two opponents shooting just 31% overall and 20% from 3-pt range. Kent State relied heavily on the 3-pt shot against Hiram, but was only 43% overall from the field, which isn't a good sign here. While Towson was NOT one of the five teams in the CAA that earned a first place vote in the preseason poll, they are nevertheless dangerous, especially w/ this infusion of young talent. Kent State is more experienced, but still is a middle of the road MAC team. The home court edge matters big time here as the Golden Flashes are 0-7 ATS the L2 seasons as a road dog of 3 pts or less. 10* Towson |
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11-10-19 | Illinois v. Arizona -6.5 | Top | 69-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:00 ET): Any concern #21 Arizona may have over impending NCAA sanctions weren't apparent Wednesday night when they completely wiped the floor w/ Northern Arizona. Obviously, it figured to be a lopsided affair going in. But the Wildcats easily covered the 23.5-point spread, winning 91-52 for HC Sean Miller. Freshman Zeke Nnaji led the way w/ 20 points as Arizona dominated down low. Nnaji is one of seven newcomers to the Arizona program this year, so it's no wonder the issues surrounding the program aren't affecting the current roster. Lay the points. This will be the third game for Illinois. But unlike what Arizona did in its first game, the Fighting Illini have failed to overwhelm two lesser opponents. A pair of eight point wins over Nicholls State and Grand Canyon really aren't all that impressive when you think about it and then needed OT to beat Nicholls State at home. The +56 rebounding margin the Illini has enjoyed so far won't be present here. Also, playing a third game in less than a week really isn't the best setup for the first true test of the season is it? Especially when its a second road game in three nights and out on the West Coast. Arizona is simply deeper and better than Illinois. They are also better rested. Not only did Illinois need OT to beat Nicholls State in the opener, they only led Grand Canyon by four at halftime on Friday. Asking them to "keep up" in Tucson seems like a tall order considering the Illini have won just 3 of their previous 23 road games (includes the win at Grand Canyon)! 10* Arizona |
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11-10-19 | Falcons +14.5 v. Saints | Top | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): The 2019 season couldn't be going more differently for these two NFC South rivals. The Saints, despite Drew Brees missing five games, are on pace for a franchise record 14 wins. They also have the league's longest active ATS win streak at 6 games. Atlanta seems to be inching towards the end of the Dan Quinn era, that is unless things change drastically in the second half of the season. They're 1-7 SU overall and 0-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS the L6 games. But while recent history may not be on their side, the Falcons are a desperate, double-digit division dog this week. That's a spot we like, especially with Matt Ryan coming back. While Atlanta has been the worst bet in the NFL over the L2 seasons (7-17 ATS) w/ a ton of outright losses, they are not a DD dog often. In fact, it's happened only five times in the Matt Ryan era and just once under Quinn. While the Falcons are 0-5 straight up in those games, they've gone 4-1 ATS. The spread for each of Atlanta's first seven games was always four points or less. Were the Falcons to get blown out here, off their bye, things would be REAL ugly for Quinn. Can't see that happening. Ryan being back is huge. Against Seattle two weeks ago, even w/o Ryan, the Falcons outgained the Seahawks 510-322, but lost due to being -3 in turnovers. This team is better than its won-loss record. They're outgaining opponents on both a per play and per game basis! New Orleans is 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS. They won every start w/ Teddy Bridgewater starting in place of Brees, but were clearly undervalued in those games. Despite their dominant record, the Saints have five wins by a TD or less. In Brees' return, they did beat the Cardinals 31-9, but that was also a one possession game going into the 4th quarter. They call the pointspread "the great equalizer" for a reason and eventually luck and those ATS results are going to even out. Love the points here. 10* Atlanta |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): There may be some head-scratching over the fact a 2-6 team (Cleveland) is favored over a 6-2 team (Buffalo), but if history is any indication, then the Browns are in good shape here. It's not unprecedented to see a line like this, but it is rare. This is only the 7th time in the L25 seasons that this situation presents itself, that being a team w/ a .250 win percentage or lower being favored over a team w/ a .750 win percentage in Week 6 or later. But when it happens, the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS! It's only the third time it's happened in Week 10 or later in the Super Bowl era and the favorite is 2-0 ATS previously. Lay the points. Buffalo is 6-2 SU and in good position to make the playoffs. But they've certainly taken advantage of a pretty easy schedule. Not only are the Bills the only team besides the Patriots to get to face the Jets & Dolphins twice (2-0 SU so far), they've also gotten to play the Giants, Redskins and Bengals, who are a collective 3-23 SU. Their six wins this year have come against teams that are a combined 9-42 straight up. Cleveland was the "trendy" team coming into the 2019 season, but we see how that's gone. In retrospect, Freddie Kitchens was probably the wrong hire as HC and Baker Mayfield is regressing. But things may not be as bad for the Browns as you think. RB Kareem Hunt is finally able to return from an 8-game suspension. It's not like the offense lacks talent. Just last week, they ran 30 more plays than Denver and possessed the ball for 11 more minutes. But six trips in the red zone resulted in only 19 pts and they lost by five. They are now 0-3 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less. They are also 0-3 SU/ATS at home. That has to change. The schedule so far has been tough. While the Bills have gotten to play all those weak teams, the Browns have had to face the Rams, 49ers and Seahawks, among others. This is just the 2nd home game in six weeks. Home teams in games where the total is 41 pts or less have gone 14-6 ATS this season and 107-85-6 ATS the L5 seasons. It's now or never for the Browns. 8* Cleveland |
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11-10-19 | Chiefs v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): With Patrick Mahomes set to return, this number has skyrocketed in the Chiefs' direction. The thing is, I thought the original number would have been appropriate even w/ Mahomes factored into the equation. HC Andy Reid has struggled in his career vs. the Titans, going 1-7 SU against them, including 0-3 SU/ATS w/ the Chiefs and all of those losses came as a favorite. There was a playoff loss two years ago that really stung. But right now Tennessee isn't even thinking playoffs. They are a desperate home dog off a tough loss LW at Carolina. Typically, this is a stronger team at home and under Mike Vrabel, they are 5-1 ATS/4-2 as dogs of 4+ pts. Take the points. There are two "old school" characteristics Tennessee should lean on here in order to pull the upset. One is their defense. They only give up 18.3 PPG, which is 7th best in the league. The other is run the ball effectively, which they should be able to do. I didn't think RB Derrick Henry got the ball enough, especially in the 1H, LW vs. Carolina. Henry averages 18.2 touches per game, which is important to note because RB's who get at least 14 carries against this Chiefs' defense average 109.4 YPG. The Chiefs' defense has allowed 180+ yards rushing in four different games this year. Also, the Titans offense is averaging about a full yard per play more w/ Ryan Tannehill at QB than they were w/ Marcus Mariota. One has to wonder how Mahomes will play in his first game back from a knee injury. Prior to the injury, the Chiefs' offense had actually been regressing. They'd been held under 26 pts in B2B games, both losses, something that had previous never happened w/ Mahomes as the starter. All but one of KC's last seven games has been decided by one score. They just seem like a real "public side" here caught laying too many points on the road. 8* Tennessee |
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11-09-19 | Wyoming v. Boise State -13 | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -118 | 53 h 41 m | Show |
8* Boise State (10:15 ET): Boise State is no stranger to occupying this space. The Broncos were last involved in a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection when I faded them three weeks ago at BYU. They lost that game outright, as 7-point favorites, 28-25. It's their only SU loss this season. This week, I'll be taking the Broncos and it has a lot to do with whom they are facing. Wyoming has been a previous target due to the fact they've been winning games while consistently being outplayed. The last time I got involved in a Wyoming game was four weeks ago w/ a LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection on San Diego State. That's one of two games the Cowboys have lost this year. The big story here is Wyoming lost its starting QB last week. Sean Chambers made his 1st start midway through last season and really turned the team around. Chambers went 10-2 SU as the starter, but is now done for the season after injuring his knee LW vs. Nevada. Backup Tyler Vander Waal was hardly effective in completing only 3 of 10 pass attempts. The Cowboys were lucky they didn't need Vander Waal to do much as they were already up 24-3 when he came into the game. Boise State knows all too well the importance of having your starting QB on the field. Hank Bachmeier missed that BYU game, but returned last week and led the Broncos' offense to a 52-point effort against San Jose State. The Broncos' defense did give up 42 points and almost 500 total yards last week, but that was on the road. Wyoming, with a backup QB making his first career start, is not a threat. That this game is on the "Blue Turf" is very significant. Wyoming has been outgained by nearly 100 YPG on the road this year (outgained in all three games) and averages only 22.0 PPG. That was w/ Chambers at QB. Boise State is 12-1 all-time vs. Wyoming (lone loss was in Laramie) w/ the avg MOV being 24.4 PPG. The Broncos are 17-1 SU the L18 MWC home games. My numbers say this number would be too low even if Chambers was the starter for Wyoming! 8* Boise State |
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11-09-19 | Missouri +16.5 v. Georgia | Top | 0-27 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
10* Missouri (7:00 ET): While Tigers QB Kelly Bryant remains a "game-time decision" here, this is a play regardless. Admittedly, Mizzou has been a very inconsistent team this year. They've suffered some real head-scratching losses this year, including the last 2 weeks at Vanderbilt and Kentucky. They also lost the season opener at Wyoming. But it is certainly worth mentioning that there was a time when this was considered a Top 20 team in the country. B2B losses have sent them tumbling and while they now have to face to #6 Georgia, this will actually be the 1st time all season that the Tigers have been underdogs! Take the points w/ a dangerous team. We certainly know that Georgia isn't immune to a shocking home loss. It was four weeks ago we faded them vs. South Carolina and they got beat 20-17 as 20.5-pt underdogs (in overtime). Since that time, they've bounced back to shutout Kentucky 21-0 and then last week win the big rivalry game over Florida (24-17). As mentioned earlier, that has the Dawgs ranked #6 in the initial CFP poll and pundits are back to talking about a path to the top four. Sounds like it could be an ideal time for another letdown. Not only is UGA coming off a win over Florida, but they have Auburn (a much bigger game) and Texas A&M on deck. This looks like the proverbial "sandwich spot" for the favorite. I go back to something I talked about in the analysis for South Carolina-Georgia. UGA is a somewhat offensively challenged team. They've scored 24 or fewer points in four of their last five games. So it's problematic for them covering a spread this large. Not only has Missouri not been a dog previous to this, they'd actually been favored to win every game by least 9.5 points! The Tigers have the top pass defense in the entire SEC. It does sound like Bryant will play. While Missouri has only beaten Georgia once since becoming SEC rivals, they've covered five of the seven meetings, including the last four. So they have a history of playing the Dawgs tough. That continues Saturday. 10* Missouri |
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11-09-19 | Austin Peay v. Western Kentucky -11.5 | Top | 75-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (4:00 ET): Both teams won their opening game. Western Kentucky prevailed 76-64 over Tennessee Tech here in Bowling Green, but failed to cover as 19-point favorites. Austin Peay was a 110-67 winner over Oakland City, but do not make the mistake of reading too much into that result. Oakland City is a Division II school that had no chance of winning. Austin Peay did win 22 games last season, but did not make the postseason. They bring back just one starter from that team, Terry Taylor, who scored 21 points in the opener. That's right about where his output was a season ago (20.5 PPG). But the rest of the team being as prolific as it was vs. Oakland City is not something that should be counted upon regularly. The Governors were an insane 41 of 59 on 2-pt attempts Tuesday. That probably won't happen again this season. The size advantage they enjoyed in that first game simply won't be present here. Western Kentucky could be considered the favorite in C-USA this season. They bring back a majority of the team that won 20 games last season. Though they did not cover the large spread in the opening game, they did lead by double digits for the entirety of the second half. They didn't even shoot that well from three-point range, so that's something to look for here. The Hilltoppers were a strong 21-13 overall at the betting window last season. This number ought to be higher, so we'll lay it. 8* Western Kentucky |
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11-09-19 | Southern Utah v. Nebraska -7 | Top | 79-78 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 9 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (2:00 ET): I have to admit that when I first glanced at this line, I thought someone from Nebraska had to be injured. I know Southern Utah is a "program on the rise," but this number is way too short. The game is in Lincoln after all! The reason for the short line is that the Cornhuskers are in off an embarrassing loss in their opener where they fell 66-47 to UC Riverside as 15.5-pt favorites. It was an ice cold shooting night in HC Fred Hoiberg's debut. That's not going to happen again and you should look to take advantage of this line, which is way too low. Nebraska shot just 29.1% from the floor Tuesday vs. UC Riverside, a shocking performance indeed. They were 6 of 26 from three-point range w/ three of their top shooters going a collective 1 for 11. Incredibly, as a team, they missed 35 of their final 44 shots overall. That is unconscionable! Even the free throw line was unkind as Nebraska went 9 for 19 there. As embarrassing a setback as that may have been, you have to chalk it up to "one of those nights." I don't think it's indicative of what we'll see out of Lincoln under Hoiberg. Southern Utah smoked Bethesda in its first game, winning 110-66. But that's a non-board team and this is a big step up travelling to face an opponent out of the Big 10. Last year was Southern Utah's best finish in ages as they went 17-17 and won a game in the CIT. But there's still a big gap between them and Nebraska. Key here is that SUU likes to run, just like Nebraska does, so it's a better matchup for the favorite than UC Riverside was. Also, the Thunderbirds lack the size UC Riverside had. Nebraska allowed just 61.2 PPG in non-conference play a season ago. Defense wasn't the issue on Tuesday though. It'll be the obvious offensive improvement that carries them to a cover here. 10* Nebraska |
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11-08-19 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami-FL -11 | Top | 60-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Coming off a 13-point home loss to Louisville, you've got to figure "The U" will be pretty fired up here. FAU seems like an ideal matchup as the 'Canes are 23-1 SU against them all-time, including a 20-point win as 14-pt favorites LY. The Owls are definitely a step down in class from L'ville, the #5 ranked team in the country. Though Miami initially led 16-9 Tuesday night, little else went right after that. They closed the game on a 16-2 run to make the final score at least respectable. But they did trail by as many as 32. Still, they are the play here. Lay the number. Miami is much deeper and more experienced team than they were a season ago when they finished just 14-18, ending a three-year NCAA Tournament run. Defensively, I expect a much better effort here than what we saw Tuesday. HC Jim Larranaga preached defense all off-season, yet his team allowed L'ville to shoot 55% from the field, which is terribly disappointing. But again, that's a much better team that what they'll be facing here. Last year, the Hurricanes held FAU to 33% shooting and were up 23 by halftime. FAU played a Division II team (Flagler) in its opening game, so little can be drawn from that. The Owls scored 92 points with some red hot shooting, but also gave up 81 points and had 20 turnovers, which are not good signs. In last year's game, Miami had its way on the interior, making 20 of 29 two-point shots! The Canes did shoot well in the 2H vs. L'ville, including 50% from three-point range. Miami is 5-1-1 ATS following a SU loss while FAU is 8-20 ATS off its L28 SU wins. 10* Miami FL |
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11-07-19 | Thunder +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 112-121 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:35 ET): San Antonio is just 1-6 against the spread, which is the worst mark in the league. What makes that ATS record so interesting is that the team is also 4-3 SU. The Spurs were exactly expected to be world-beaters this season, yet have been favored in almost every game. They've lost the last two, however, including 108-100 at Atlanta Tuesday where they were a six-point road favorite. The only game the Spurs covered so far was against Golden State, who is a mess right now. Even coming off an upset loss, I just don't want any part of this Spurs team right now, especially laying points. Take the dog in this Western Conference matchup. The Thunder are only 3-4 SU, but have a better scoring differential than the Spurs. They are coming off consecutive victories at home, over New Orleans and Orlando, where they did a solid job defensively. They currently rank third in the league in defensive efficiency, trailing only Utah and the Lakers. Long-time followers know how much I value the defensive efficiency metric. So even though little is expected from OKC this year, my view is they are an undervalued team right now. Three of their four losses have been by five points or less. They've allowed only one opponent to score more than 104 pts so far and that was Houston, who leads the Western Conference in PPG. The Thunder have lost the last four times they've ventured into San Antonio, also going 0-4 ATS. That seems a little strange as the teams have generally been pretty competitive the last couple years. Obviously, there's been a mass exodus of talent in OKC, but the same can be said for San Antonio. The Spurs have shot poorly the L2 games (not surprising since they lost both) and don't look for them to turn it around here as the Thunder lead the league in opposing FG% (40.3) and 3-point % (27.3). San Antonio's defense has slipped this year as they've yet to hold an opponent below 100 points. 10* Oklahoma City. |
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11-07-19 | Temple v. South Florida +1.5 | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
10* South Florida (8:00 ET): The home team has won all five meetings between these schools and there has been a history of upsets. The first three meetings saw an outright win by the home dog every time. The last two years, the home team entered favored. Last year it was USF going to Philly on a season-worst three-game losing streak and losing 27-17. But they covered as a 13-point dog thanks to taking a 17-0 lead going into halftime. The last time Temple came to Tampa is the ONLY time in the history of the series where the favorite covered. USF won 43-7 w/ a 408-85 edge in total yards. I bring all this up because Temple remains a shaky road team in 2019. While it probably won't get as ugly as it did two years ago here (also a Thurs night game!), take the Bulls. Temple has pulled a few notable upsets this season. The Owls (+5.5) beating Maryland 20-17 back in Week 3 seemed impressive at the time, but the Terrapins have gone from chic to lousy. The Owls did beat Memphis 30-28 as 4-pt home dogs, but that was thanks to four Tigers' turnovers more than anything else. Temple was outgained in that game. Since then, they've been exposed w/ ugly losses to SMU (45-21) and UCF (63-21) w/ the defense giving up 600+ yards in both games. Temple's lone road win of the season came against East Carolina, by a score of 27-17, but they did not cover as 12-pt chalk. They are now 0-3 ATS in all road games. USF has taken some lumps this year, but has battled back to win four of its last six overall. They had won five straight coming off a regular season bye before running into SMU earlier in this season. The Bulls will get a chance to play spoiler down the stretch w/ remaining games against Cincinnati, Memphis and UCF. Including this one, they'll have to win twice to become bowl eligible. USF has actually performed slightly better than Temple has on a per play basis this season and the Owls' shaky play on the road is cause for concern. The Owls have just ONE win this season by more than 3 pts against a FBS opponent. USF's defense is #1 in the AAC against the pass and they have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the COUNTRY. Temple has the 2nd most TO's in the conference this year. 10* South Florida |
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11-06-19 | Long Beach State v. UCLA -16.5 | Top | 65-69 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
8* UCLA (11:00 ET): The Mick Cronin era is set to begin at UCLA. This once proud program has descended into almost being irrelevant, but Cronin should get them back to the top of the Pac 12. Cronin did an excellent job the L13 seasons in Cincinnati, who was perenially one of the top defensive teams in the country. He inherits 13 returning players from the previous regime. The first game is against Long Beach State, a team the Bruins have pretty much dominated over the years. They are 7-0 SU (6-1 ATS) the L7 meetings including a 91-80 win to open last season. Lay the points here in Cronin's debut. LBSU is known for taking on a challenging non-conference schedule under HC Dan Monson. But last year saw them drop 10 of 14 non-conf games while giving up nearly 80 PPG. This year could be a lot uglier and not because of the defense. The top five scorers from LY's team are all gone. No returning player averaged more than 7.2 PPG last season. No one else on this current roster averaged more than 4.0 PPG. The 49ers have finished under .500 five of the last six seasons and have won just 15 games each of the L3 seasons. It could be a long season. UCLA was terrible defensively last season, but I project them to be one of the most improved teams in the country in that department under Cronin's guidance. This was a very good hire. Last year's team had all sorts of distractions and Steve Alford got fired 13 games into the season. Don't forget the program had to deal w/ the Ball family two years ago. It's a more focused group coming into 2019 and Cronin brought in three four-star recruits. Even if Prince Ali's ankle doesn't allow him to play here, the Bruins have enough talent on hand to win big. Cronin is looking to make a statement here. 8* UCLA |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -6.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -114 | 47 h 3 m | Show |
10* Ohio (8:00 ET): This Wednesday night matchup will go a long way in determining who wins the MAC East this year. It's a division Ohio won as recently as 2016, but they've haven't won a Conference Championship since 1968! Miami shares the same 3-1 SU record in MAC games this year and is now 19-7 SU their L26 conference games overall. This is a rivalry game ("Battle for the Bricks"), one that I personally am quite familiar with as Ohio U is my alma mater. But just to show how unbiased I am, last year I had Miami in their 30-28 upset (as 4-pt dogs) in Oxford (also a Wednesday game). But it's back to the alma mater in 2019 as I'll lay the points. Last year's upset snapped a string of five straight wins by OU in the "Battle for the Bricks." I thought it was a terrible spot for them as they were coming off a 59-14 win the week prior and totally overvalued. Miami also needed the game to remain bowl eligible. Jumping out to a 28-7 halftime lead proved to be the difference for the RedHawks as they could only manage a safety in the 2H. Note that Ohio HC Frank Solich (15th year here) is still 11-3 SU all-time vs. Miami and that includes six straight wins here in Athens. There will be no motivational issues this time for the Bobcats w/ the East Division hanging in the balance. They were the favorite to win the Division coming into the year. Ohio started slow this year, including a couple of close losses. But they've seemed to finally hit their stride and played their "best" game of the year two Saturdays ago when they went to Ball State and "upset" the favored Cardinals 34-21. They ran for 300+ yards in the outright win. While 0-4 ATS at Peden Stadium this season, the Bobcats have won 13 of 16 here straight up. Miami is off B2B upsets beating Northern Illinois at home and Kent State on the road. I had 'em in the former. But I can't see three upsets in a row. The win over Kent State was the Redhawks' first on the road. There is a huge edge for Ohio at the QB position w/ senior Nathan Rourke over Miami freshman Brett Gabbert. That alone could be the difference as the home team should win comfortably. 10* Ohio |
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11-06-19 | Wolves v. Grizzlies +5 | Top | 121-137 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Minnesota was able to split the two games Karl-Anthony Towns missed due to suspension (got into a fight w/ Joel Embiid). They won in Washington, 131-109, but then faltered at home against Milwaukee, losing 134-106. Towns is back in the lineup Wednesday night as the T'wolves make the trip to Memphis. While the Grizzlies' season is not exactly off to a "rousing start" (their record is 1-5), they've generally been competitive. This is their third straight home game while Minnesota has had to bounce back & forth between home and the road. Take the points as the T'wolves are overvalued in Towns' return. The Grizzlies' last two home games were against Phoenix and Houston. They lost by nine to the Suns, a game which they led early. Playing against a desperate Rockets team (that had been humiliated the night prior), they lost by only seven. The only times this team has been blown out this year have been on the road. They're 1-3 at home w/ all three losses coming by single digits. One bright spot has been the play of rookie Ja Morant, who leads the team in points and assists. He had 23 and 6 against Houston Monday. We should see Morant and the rest of the Grizzlies shoot better tonight against a T'wolves team that just gave up 134 points and is not noted for its defense. It'll be interesting to see how Towns return affects Andrew Wiggins, who was the primary scorer for Minnesota the L2 games. While the T'wolves have opened 3-1 SU on the road, two of the wins were against Washington and Charlotte (both bad) and the other by a single point over Brooklyn. Their only other win was a very favorable spot against Miami, who was playing the second game of a back to back. I thought the T'wolves were somewhat exposed in losses to the Sixers and Bucks, which came by 22 and 28 points respectively. This isn't a team I'd want to LAY points with on the road. 10* Memphis |
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11-05-19 | Celtics v. Cavs +6 | Top | 119-113 | Push | 0 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavaliers were blown out Sunday night, losing here at home to Dallas 131-111. I think they'll fare better tonight against Boston. The Cavs were 2-0 SU at home before that loss to the Mavs. They have shot demonstrably better here at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse (formerly Quicken Loans Arena), making 47.2% of their field goal attempts while averaging 112.7 points per game. They've scored at least 110 in every home game thus far. Anything close to a similar effort tonight should result in an easy cover. Take the points. Boston moved on from Kyrie Irving in the offseason, but still expects to be a top contender in the Eastern Conference. They enter this game at 4-1 SU, their only loss coming in the season opener to Philadelphia, which was a road game. However, the last two wins have NOT been pretty w/ the Celtics having to rally from a 19-pt deficit against Milwaukee and then needing a last second shot to beat the Knicks 104-102. The Celtics haven't shot very well so far as their FG% is 41.7, which is 27th overall. Kemba Walker, Irving's replacement, has really carried the team w/ three straight games of 32+ pts. The Cavs are definitely rebuilding under 1st year HC John Beilein. But both Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson are both playing well. Love had 29 points and eight rebounds Sunday while Thompson posted his 5th double-double of the season. This team won't be the pushover it was last season, it's first after losing LeBron James for a second time. The Celtics might be 4-1, but they've hardly been dominant in getting to that record, so taking the points here seems smart. 8* Cleveland |
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11-05-19 | Appalachian State +18 v. Michigan | Top | 71-79 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:00 ET): There's an obvious comment to be made here w/ Michigan opening its season against Appalachian State. It was a little more than 12 years ago, over at "The Big House," that the Wolverines' football team laid a historic egg against ASU (then a FCS program) in what still ranks as one of the greatest upsets in the history of that particular sport. Of course, that also happened to be Lloyd Carr's final season in Ann Arbor. It's a new era of Michigan hoops w/ Juwan Howard taking over for John Beilein, who went to the NBA to the coach Cleveland. I don't see Howard losing his HC debut, but the Maize and Blue aren't as good as they've been in past years. Take the points. Howard was of course part of the famed "Fab Five" that took Michigan - and the entire College Basketball world - by storm in the early 90's. But he has zero head coaching experience and is laying a big number tonight. The Wolverines lost their top three scorers from a year ago and freshman Franz Wagner broke his wrist, which will cause him to miss 4-6 weeks. Michigan played a very sophisticated offense under Beilein. Under Howard, it looks like they'll "play faster." But a recent scrimmage against Saginaw Valley State saw them shoot just 9 of 31 from three-point range and at one point, they went seven minutes w/o making a shot. My guess is Michigan isn't going to be as stout defensively either now that Beilein has moved on. Appalachian State went 11-21 SU last season, it's eighth straight losing campaign. So a coaching change was made as Dustin Kerns comes over after a successful run at Presbyterian. Kerns inherits a good deal of returning talent, led by Justin Forrest, who averaged 16.2 PPG last season. He's one of three starters back. The Mountaineers definitely didn't have issues scoring last season as they averaged 79.9 PPG, which was 33rd in the country. The issue was at the other end. But if Michigan struggles to shoot like they did vs. Saginaw Valley State, that issue should be less of a problem. Plus, I expect Kerns to improve the team's overall defense. 8* Appalachian State |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants +7 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 43 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:15 ET): This is the second meeting of the year between these long-time NFC East rivals. I made the mistake of playing the G-Men in the first, which they lost 35-17 as 7-point underdogs. That result seems to have set the tone for the respective seasons as Dallas is 5-3 (coming off a bye) while the Giants are 2-6 SU (and have lost four in a row). The Week 1 win by the Cowboys was also their fifth straight win and cover over the Giants. But look at this line for Monday night's rematch. The Giants are now basically getting the same number of points at home that they were on the road. There's some real value on the home dog here. Take the points. While still struggling, the Giants do look a lot different from when they faced the Cowboys in Week 1. The most obvious difference is at QB w/ Daniel Jones now starting instead of Eli Manning. Jones first appeared in Week 3 vs. Tampa Bay where he led a dramatic come from behind win. He then won his first career start, beating the Redskins 24-3. But since then, it's been nothing but losses as the Giants are 0-4. Slow starts have doomed the Giants during this stretch, but note that two of the four losses have been by six points or less. The other two were to the Vikings and Patriots, two of the best teams in the league. Jones will also finally have a full compliment of skill position players this week as RB Saquon Barkley and WR Sterling Shepard are both set to return. Keep in mind that both TE Evan Engram and WR Golden Tate have missed time as well, but they'll be on the field here as well. On the defensive side of the ball, there's also a fresh new face for the Giants. It's Leonard Williams, who was acquired this week in a trade w/ the Jets. The Giants' defense has been better over the L3 games and I expect a much better showing than the disastrous effort against the Cowboys in Week 1. Despite them destroying the Eagles two weeks ago, I remain highly skeptical of the Cowboys. They are 1-2 on the road w/ the lone win coming against Washington. They've already lost once in this stadium this year, falling as a 7-pt road favorite to the previously winless Jets. Despite many trends pointing Dallas' way in this game, I'm going the other way as this is a great sell high (Dallas) / buy low (Giants) spot with the two teams. 10* NY Giants |
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11-04-19 | Bucks v. Wolves +6.5 | Top | 134-106 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The T'wolves won't have Karl-Anthony Towns tonight (suspended), but they didn't have him on Saturday either and still managed to win 131-109. Granted, that was against the sorry Wizards. But here the oddsmakers are giving them some help in the form of a generous number at home. The T'Wolves' 4-1 start is made more impressive when you consider they've only gotten to play one home game. That lone home date saw them defeat a good Miami team 116-109. That is still Miami's only loss this season. Take the points here. Milwaukee will show up in the Twin Cities off B2B impressive performances. After blowing out Orlando 123-91 on Friday, the Bucks led by as many as 26 against Toronto Saturday and won 115-105. Thanks to a low-scoring 4Q, I was able to cash an Under bet on that Saturday matchup. The Bucks are now 4-2 SU/ATS on the year and could easily be 6-0 SU as they blew DD leads in both losses. That being said, this is the most points they've been asked to lay away from home thus far and it comes against a team that's playing pretty well right now. This is kind of a letdown spot for Milwaukee as Saturday was a big revenge game for LY's Eastern Conference Finals. Six players finished in double figures for Minnesota on Saturday, led by Andrew Wiggins' 21 pts. That's a good sign as they again play w/o Towns, whose suspension came about for fighting w/ Joel Embiid. Something that makes Minnesota's 4-1 start even more impressive is that they have not fared well from behind the three-point line. Opponents are hitting nearly 40% against them for the year. But I don't think that will continue. They should also shoot better from three-point range tonight than they did against Miami (13 for 45). The T'wolves are a surprising 57-28 SU at home since the start of the 2017-18 season. While they are 2-8 SU/ATS L10 meetings w/ Milwaukee, this is a good value. 8* Minnesota |
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11-03-19 | Packers v. Chargers +4 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): I was a big "buyer" on the Packers coming into the season, their 1st under new HC Matt LaFleur. The fact that a team w/ Aaron Rodgers could finish below .500 in B2B seasons is a real "black mark" for LaFleur's predecessor Mike McCarthy, even though one Rodgers was injured for a good chunk of one of those years. This year's obvious improvement aside, the Packers have clearly overachieved in getting to 7-1. They've won four games by seven points or less (lost only one) and are actually being outgained on both a per game and per play basis. I'll fade GB this week as they are the definition of a "public side" here. Take the points. The Chargers finished 12-4 SU for HC Anthony Lynn last year and were favored to make the playoffs again. But they've reverted back to their "old ways" in 2019, losing a lot of close games and falling prey to injuries. All five Chargers' losses this year have been by seven points or less. But, finally, something went their way last week as they held on to beat Chicago 17-16, thanks to a missed FG attempt on the final play. LA was actually dominated statistically in the contest, getting outgained 388-231 and finishing w/ 15 fewer first downs than the Bears. But given how the first seven games had gone, the Lightning Bolts will take a win anyway they can get it. Something worth noting here is the Chargers had not been an underdog in any game this season until the L2 weeks. They pushed as a three-point dog vs. Tennessee and then had the outright win LW in Chicago. This team plays good defense, giving up only 19.6 PPG. Green Bay caught a huge break LW as they got to face Kansas City w/o Patrick Mahomes. This is the first time all season that the Pack have had to play two straight road games. The Chargers have actually lost three in a row at home, a streak we see likely coming to an end here even though they don't have much of a homefield advantage. Despite a 3-5 SU overall record, the Chargers have outgained their opponents and have scored the same number of points as they've allowed. This number is definitely on the "wrong side" of 3. 8* LA Chargers |
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11-03-19 | Bucs +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 118 h 45 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): Sometimes it can be a "thin line" between being 2-5 and 6-2 in this league. Take these teams, for example. The 2-5 Bucs seem to specialize in "throwing games away" whether it be turning the ball over SEVEN times (like they did in London vs Carolina) or blowing 18-point leads (like they did vs the Giants). Last week was another close loss, 27-24 in Tennessee. As for 6-2 Seattle, they have five wins by seven points or less, including four by four or less. They have outscored opponents by only 12 points all year and the schedule is about to get a whole lot tougher. Believe it or not, the Seahawks are 0-4 ATS as home favorites this year. Take the points. Last week was microcosm of the season for these two teams. Tampa Bay outgained Tennessee 389-246, only to commit four more turnovers and lose. There was also an apparent fumble return for TD negated by an inadvertent whistle that would have won the game for the Bucs. It was Tampa's third loss this season by seven points or less. While that was going on, Seattle held on for a 27-20 win at Atlanta. While the Seahawks did lead 24-0 at halftime, they were eventually outgained 510-322, only to benefit from a +3 turnover margin. Such has been the respective 2019's for these two teams. But this is where Tampa Bay's luck changes. Maybe it will be just temporarily, but they are definitely "due." The Bucs have outgained their opponents both on a per play and per game basis. They've only been outscored by 16 pts all year. Seattle's defense is giving up 6.4 yards play, which is more than what the Bucs allow. The Bucs' defense is actually #1 in the league against the run! Meanwhile, The Legion of Boom is long gone in Seattle and last week the Seahawks gave up 400+ yards passing to Atlanta (w/ Matt Schaub). Tampa Bay's offense has big play capability w/ two excellent receivers. Seattle's offensive line is in flux now w/ a new starting center. In each case here, the team's WL record is a little bit misleading. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-02-19 | Florida Atlantic +1.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 53 h 32 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (4:00 ET): This game feels very reminiscent of our September Game of the Month when we took FAU against Charlotte. The Owls were actually a slight dog heading into that contest (shocking in retrospect!), but prevailed 45-27 w/ 550+ yards of total offense. Five weeks later, they head to Western Kentucky to face a team that - like Charlotte - was not expected to finish near the top of the C-USA East Division standings. FAU was, so therefore I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Owls QB Chris Robison expects to start Saturday afternoon. Take the points. These are two of the three teams that have just one conference loss in C-USA's East Division. Both lost to Marshall. Western Kentucky's loss to Marshall was last Saturday, 26-23, but they were 3.5-pt underdogs. So that makes it FIVE ATS wins in a row for the Hilltoppers. I think it's that streak that has them favored here, but note they were underdogs in three of those five games. WKU was -3 in TO's last week at Marshall, which proved costly. The Hilltoppers have been carried by a defense which has allowed just ONE 2nd half touchdown the L5 wks. But last week saw them surrender 401 yards and 26 points, the most in each category since a loss to Louisville on 9.14. FAU is arguably the best offensive team that WKU has faced all season. Again, you would not have expected FAU to be an underdog in this game back at the start of the season. The Owls have won 5 of 6 since since an 0-2 start and really handled Old Dominion last week, winning 41-3. Robison has 208 yards passing in the first half, but didn't play in the second after being driven down hard into the turf. Note the Owls started 0-2 because they faced Ohio State and UCF. Believe it or not, the 24-point loss to Ohio State is tied for the closest any team has been to the Buckeyes all season. Robison has said he's preparing to start, so that's all we needed to know. FAU has beaten WKU both years under Lane Kiffin, winning 42-28 and 34-15. WKU has closed the gap a little in 2019, but still shouldn't be favored. We have the Owls 10 points better on a neutral field. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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11-02-19 | Army +14.5 v. Air Force | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 93 h 38 m | Show |
8* Army (3:30 ET): Over the last two seasons, Army achieved unprecedented heights for the program (at least in the "modern era"), winning 21 games under HC Jeff Monken. They even finished ranked (#19) in the final poll LY, which was their first time in the Top 25 since 1996! This year started auspiciously w/ a narrow win over Rice (who is still winless). But the following week saw the Black Knights nearly upset Michigan in "The Big House," the second year in a row they took a top 10 opponent into overtime (Oklahoma). So everything appeared OK. But October saw the Cadets seemingly marching "in reverse." They've lost four straight, the last three all coming as favorites. Now they're a big dog against Air Force. At 3-5 SU, if Army were to lose here, then they'd need to win out just to be bowl eligible. The situation screams "take the points" as these "Commander In Chief" games tend to be both close and low-scoring. Air Force was a nice winner for us last Saturday. It was a late night game, hosting Utah State, and the Falcons rolled to a 31-7 victory as 3.5-pt chalk. They held USU to just 128 total yards, including just 14 rushing. The Flyboys are now 6-2 SU and have surpassed LY's win total. Five of the last six games, they've held the opposition below 100 rushing yards. That seems critical when facing Army. But let's look at the one opponent the Falcons failed to keep under 100 yards rushing during that stretch. It was Navy, who went for 214 in a 34-25 upset in Annapolis. That's obviously the most comparable offense to what the Falcons face this week. While Air Force may still be unbeaten at home, they do seem ripe for a letdown following three straight double digit victories. Army hasn't lost a game by more than 9 pts all year. As alluded to above, these C-in-C games always tend to be low-scoring. Usually, they are close as well. Army has beaten Air Force two straight years, something that had previously not happened since 1977-78. Last year was a 3-point win (17-14) in West Point. Over the last five seasons, no Army game against either Air Force or Navy has seen more than 43 total points scored. More than half have seen 31 total pts or less scored. That makes taking the points a "no brainer" here as Army is better suited for the underdog role anyway. 8* Army |
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11-01-19 | Lakers v. Mavs +2 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:35 ET): The Lakers are 3-1, having won three in a row, all as home favorites. They actually own the league's top scoring differential right now at +11.8 per game. But it's worth mentioning that their last two wins have come against Memphis and Charlotte, who are two of the league's worst teams. Tonight also marks the Lakers' first game away from Staples Center. Remember they opened the season w/ a game against the Clippers where they were the designated "road team." The Lakers remain a very "public" team and this short number on the road absolutely STINKS. Take the points. Dallas is also 3-1 w/ its lone defeat coming by just two points (at home vs. Portland). The Mavs were expected to improve and contend for a playoff spot this year, so the 3-1 start is a good sign. They are off arguably their most impressive win to date, a 109-106 upset of Denver as six-point road dogs. They won that game despite their two top players - Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic combining for just 22 points on 7 of 22 shooting. But SEVEN other Mavs finished in double figures to help pick up the slack. Expect the two stars to both bounce back this evening and the dropoff from the role players shouldn't be that severe as this is a home game (reserves typically play better at home). Anthony Davis had 40 points and 20 rebounds vs. Memphis in just three quarters of play. But again, the Grizzlies are not a formidable opponent. Davis also appeared to be bothered by a lingering shoulder issue in that game. He was 26 of 27 from the free throw line in that game, which accounted for most of his scoring. I suspect we won't be seeing him at the charity stripe that much tonight. Of course, we should probably mention LeBron James and that Kyle Kuzma is expected to make his season debut tonight. But I wouldn't expect too much from Kuzma in his first game back. I still have reservations about the Lakers defensively and James' teams had the worst ATS record in the league the L2 years. 8* Dallas |
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11-01-19 | Bucks v. Magic +5 | Top | 123-91 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): The Magic are a team we've been tracking all week. While they came up short for us in Monday's loss to the Raptors, they immediately bounced back w/ a win and cover Wednesday night against the Knicks. Admittedly, beating the Knicks wasn't as easy as it looked. The Magic were down at halftime before really putting down the clamps defensively. They held the Knicks to just 39 pts in the 2H. No team is playing at a slower pace than the Magic, whose games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now. I'm counting on that slow pace and defense to be factor tonight as Orlando is a home dog for the 1st time this season. Take the points. Milwaukee won 60 games last year, finishing first in the East. They are the overwhelming favorite to finish first in the Conference again this year. But I suspect they're not going to win as many games this year as they did in 2018. They made a large jump from 44 to 60 (wins) last year based on a new offensive approach under HC Mike Budenholzer (more threes!) and Giannis Antetokounmpo emerging as one of the league's top players. The book is now out on the Bucks though. The "Greek Freak" (Antetokounmpo) is being hampered w/ foul trouble so far this year and the team has twice lost a game in which it held a lead of 16+ points. Defensively, they are giving up 117.5 PPG. Orlando is 2-0 at home this year. Granted, those wins were against the Cavs and Knicks. But considering how poorly the Magic have shot the ball so far, it's a wonder they've won any games at all! They are averaging 95.7 PPG on 39.5% shooting, including 28.8% from three-point range. Every one of those numbers ranks last in the league, except 3-pt shooting, which is 29th (2nd worst). You have to imagine the shooting is set to improve and with Milwaukee struggling defensively, tonight should be the night Orlando breaks out offensively. The Magic have no problems defensively, ranking 2nd in the league in points allowed at 93.8 PPG and 3rd in efficiency. I smell an "upset" here. 8* Orlando |
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10-30-19 | Knicks v. Magic -9 | Top | 83-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): So the Magic are 0-3 ATS to start the season, which is a disappointment obviously, but perhaps also a reflection of the fact there are actual expectations for this team in 2019-20. That hasn't been the case for some time. But w/ LY's playoff breakthrough and the Eastern Conference being so wide-open this year, a team with this kind of continuity (returned 85% of LY's minutes played) should do well. A 1-2 start isn't cause for any kind concern, but after B2B losses, the Magic could really use an easy win tonight. Fortunately, they'll be playing the Knicks! Lay the points. The Knicks had the worst record in the league last season (17-65), setting expectations rather low in the Big Apple. Sure enough, the team opened the year by losing three straight. They did beat Chicago on Monday, but that required a pretty big comeback and the game was at home. The Knicks trailed by 18 at the end of the 1st quarter and were down 7 entering the 4Q. Their first lead came in the final two minutes as Bobby Portis sunk a go-ahead 3-pointer to cap one of the best games of his career (28 points). A player like Portis can't be counted on every night though. In fact, he'd scored just 18 pts total in the first three games. There were only three times all of last season where NY won B2B games, by the way. Orlando has yet to score 100 pts in a game this year, which is a problem. But look for them to get on track offensively tonight. The Knicks aren't a great defensive team obviously. Before beating Chicago, they'd allowed 113+ points in every game. Orlando's only win came here at home where they beat a Cleveland team (95-84) that's pretty comparable to the Knicks. Both losses were on the road. While the offense has struggled, the Magic do rank 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency, which is a good sign My call is that a season-high in points scored is all but a lock tonight and the strong defensive play continues. The Magic are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Knicks. 10* Orlando |
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10-29-19 | Hawks v. Heat -8 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Sunday saw the Heat fail in the second game of a back to back, losing to Minnesota 116-109 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But it's not as if they weren't in the game. Despite a terrible 1st quarter (outscored 36-23), Miami led by 7 entering the 4th quarter. But then the 4Q was even worse than 1st and they ended up not covering. I was happy to see that as we'd taken the T'wolves. But now its time for the Heat to capitalize on an opponent being in the 2nd game of a B2B. It's Atlanta, who lost by 2 last night. We'll capitalize too. Lay the number. The Hawks did cover last night and are now 3-0 ATS on the year. We had them in the opener at Detroit where they won outright (by 17 pts!). That was followed by a 103-99 win over Orlando in the home opener. Trae Young has been very good in the early going, but was held to just six points in the second half vs. Philadelphia last night. That was a much different finish than the Orlando game when he scored the Hawks' final eight points. Monday's result has to be tough to swallow for Young and the rest of the Hawks seeing as they never trailed by more than four and were up 13 in the first half. Much like Miami on Sunday, it's a tough spot for the road team here. Saturday saw Miami rally from 21 down in the second half to win at Milwaukee. I certainly didn't like their chances Sunday in Minnesota given the circumstance, but the Heat played better than expected. They've won their only other home game this season, 120-101 over Memphis, and now are expected to get Jimmy Butler back in the starting lineup. That the Heat didn't start poorly w/o Butler is a good sign. Miami is a team many feel can win the Southeast Division and I'm not going to disagree w/ that (it's between them and Orlando). Atlanta has won just 21 of its last 63 road games and is 7-20 SU in the second game of a back to back. 10* Miami |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins v. Steelers -14 | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): Despite them being left for dead following a season-ending injury to Ben Roethlisberger, don't count out the Steelers quite yet. They are 2-4 SU in a weak AFC. The only game that they played poorly in was a Week 1 loss to the Patriots, who are the best team in the league. Their other three losses have been by a total of nine points. They've saved some of their best efforts for primetime as two weeks ago they beat the Chargers on SNF and the team's "best" game of the year came on a Monday night when they whipped the winless Bengals 27-3. Coming off a bye and facing another winless team (Miami) in primetime this week, I expect the Black and Gold to roll. Lay the points. Despite having one of the worst six-game starts in league history, the Dolphins seem to be drawing some interest from bettors here. Admittedly, they have been more competitive the L2 weeks, going 2-0 ATS. But that was against Washington (who was also winless at the time) and a Buffalo team that isn't as good as its record. Ryan Fitzpatrick seems to have breathed some life into a previously anemic offense, but he's 0-6 SU all-time against the Steelers. Also, Miami has yet to score more than 21 points in a game this season. They've been outscored by 148 points in the six games. No team has scored fewer points and none have given up more (even though many teams have played 8 games as opposed to Miami's 6!). This is a terrible football team, one of the worst in league history and they have a very real shot at going 0-16 SU. Pittsburgh coming off a bye week here is big because it allows for Mason Rudolph to return at QB. Rudolph is no Big Ben, but he's certainly an upgrade over Devlin Hodges, whom they were able to win with out in LA two weeks ago. Every team besides Washington has been able to score at least 30 points against this Dolphins' defense. The Steelers are typically a good October team having gone 8-2 SU, 8-1-1 ATS in the month the L3 seasons. They've got some advantages here in pass protection and should easily be able to move the ball against a Miami defense which ranks 31st against the run. It's a lot of points to swallow here, but the Dolphins are indeed "that bad." 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-28-19 | Magic +5 v. Raptors | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:35 ET): Projecting this year's NBA season proved to be a bit more challenging than normal due to all the player movement in the offseason. In the Eastern Conference, Milwaukee is the consensus top team w/ Boston and Philly probably most people's choices as the top challengers. After that, it gets rather murky. Here we have two teams wanting to be in the mix, Orlando and Toronto. The Raptors are obviously defending NBA Champs, but lost Kawhi Leonard. The Magic are interesting. While there was so much player movement in the offseason, they return about as many of LY's minutes played as any team in the East. Though it's an 0-2 ATS start for them this year, we'll back them plus the points Monday. Orlando returns 85% of last season's total minutes played. The only time w/ greater continuity is Denver. The Magic looked good in their season opener, holding Cleveland to 85 points on 37.1% shooting, but then fell victim to a hot-shooting night by Atlanta's Trae Young (went for 39 pts) in a 103-99 loss to the Hawks Saturday night. The Magic really didn't help themselves by shooting just 35.4% in that game, including 16.1% from three-point range (5 of 31). They should easily improve upon those numbers here. There's also a little bit of the revenge factor in play for Orlando tonight as they were the first team eliminated by Toronto in year's playoffs, losing the series 4-1. The one win did come here in Toronto though. The Raptors are going to have to offset the loss of Leonard somehow. So far, it's been Pascal Siakam, who has scored 86 points in three games. But I don't see that continuing. Siakam's production fell drastically in the third game, down to 19 pts, though it hardly mattered as the Raptors still beat the Bulls 108-84. But this is a team that could easily be 1-2 right now if not for a come from behind, OT victory over New Orleans on Opening Night. Toronto likely will be unable to maintain its current 39.8% shooting from 3-pt range. I like this Orlando team, especially in the underdog role. After they were favorites in the first two games, it's time to back them here. 10* Orlando |
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10-27-19 | Heat v. Wolves -6.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Normally, the T’wolves might not be favored by this many points over the Heat. But this one is all about the situation. Saturday saw Miami rally back from 21 down to defeat Milwaukee on the road. I just don’t think they are going to have much left in the tank as they arrive in the Twin Cities Sunday. The Heat were very fortunate yesterday in that the Bucks missed 24 of their final 27 three-point attempts and Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled out. Time to fade the Heat in the second night of a back to back. Lay the points. Minnesota, like Miami, is 2-0 straight up and against the spread. In the opener, they were able to do what the Bucks couldn’t on Saturday and that’s survive a big second half rally. Despite Kyrie Irving scoring 50 points, Minnesota was able to beat Brooklyn 127-126 in overtime. They followed that up w/ a convincing win over lowly Charlotte, 121-99 as a five-point favorite. It’s important to note that both wins came on the road. Karl Anthony-Towns has been a beast so far, averaging 36.5 points, 14.5 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.5 steals and 2.5 blocks. Remember that Miami is playing short-handed here w/o Jimmy Butler, Dion Waiters and Udonis Haslem. That would be bad in any normal scenario, but it’s brutal for a second night of a B2B. Will Minnesota ultimately be a playoff team in 2020? Maybe not. But they are well positioned to start the season a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread. 8* Minnesota |
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10-27-19 | Broncos +6 v. Colts | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): In what could ultimately be a low-scoring game, taking the points seems like the right move here. It feels as if we’re buying the Broncos at a low-point as they lost 30-6 to Kansas City last Thursday (even though the Chiefs lost Patrick Mahomes to injury). Last Sunday, Indianapolis was in an ideal spot facing the Texans. They were off a bye and won 30-23, leaving them alone in first place of the AFC South. Coming off that big win, it seems like a good spot to fade as the Colts have not won a game by more than seven points all season. The Colts are just the third team since 1970 to open with six straight games decided by seven points or less and win at least four of them. No team has ever started a year by playing seven straight one-score games and going 5-2 or better. So unless you think Indy is going to win in a blowout here, history is against them. Both of their losses came against AFC West team and neither of them were to Kansas City. Despite their 5-2 SU record, the Colts are being outgained on both a per game (-10.5) and per play basis (-1.1). They are a bit of a mirage as far as we’re concerned. The Broncos are better than their WL record. While 2-5 SU, they have actually outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis. The defense allows just 302.6 YPG, which is 4th best in the league! Now the offense isn’t great as Joe Flacco is clearly a stop gap until the next franchise QB is found. But only two of their losses have been by more than one score. The Colts’ YTD point differential is just +5. Denver can easily keep this game close, if not win it outright. 8* Denver |
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10-27-19 | Bengals +14 v. Rams | Top | 10-24 | Push | 0 | 47 h 7 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): The Bengals are winless (0-7), but they are far from the worst team in this league. Four of their seven losses have been by six points or less. Things could have ended up a lot differently last week vs. Jacksonville were it not for four turnovers. Three of those were Andy Dalton interceptions, the first of which came when it was still a one-score game in the 4Q. The second was a pick-six that made it a two-score game. The third led to a FG. The Bengals won’t lose every game this season and while they might not win this one, they’ll stay within the number. Take the points in London. Yes, this is a London game. While a spread such as this might be justified if the game were being played in LA, it’s definitely too high for a neutral setting where anything can happen. The Rams certainly aren’t as dominant right now as they’ve been the previous two seasons. While off their biggest margin of victory this season (37-10 over Atlanta), the Rams are still just 4-3 and not blowing many teams out. Prior to last week, there only other double digit win came when New Orleans lost Drew Brees mid-game. QB Jared Goff hasn’t thrown more than 2 TD passes in any game this season. Cincinnati has covered the last five times they’ve been an underdog of seven or more points and are 3-1 ATS the L4 times they’ve been a double digit dog. While things may look grim in the first season under HC Zac Taylor, the team should stay motivated until they get a win. Anything can happen in a London game, so the Bengals have a better shot here than they would if it were a “true” road game. Taylor knows the Rams as he previously served on Sean McVay’s staff. The Bengals’ defense is a lot more suspect against the run than the pass, but the Rams are more of a passing team. 10* Cincinnati |
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10-26-19 | Utah State v. Air Force -3 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
8* Air Force (10:15 ET): Though Boise State lost last week, it was to a non-conference opponent (BYU). So that means Utah State is still in a first place tie w/ the Broncos atop the division, one half-game up on this week's opponent, Air Force. Of course, BYU over Boise State was last week's LAST CHANCE POWER-DRIVE selection, so it only seems appropriate that we'd be playing this matchup. We're taking Air Force as they've got the homefield advantage + the revenge angle after losing LY in Logan by a score of 42-32. The Flyboys are a team we were relatively high on coming into the year whereas USU figured to regress from LY's 11-2 SU campaign. Lay the short number. The AFA is 5-2 SU overall and coming off a 56-26 win over Hawaii, their 2nd straight win by double digits. The week prior, here in Colorado Springs, saw them beat Fresno State 43-24. So the offense is certainly "humming along" right now. Much of that is obviously due to the triple option as the Falcons have run for 340+ yards in B2B weeks. But they've also added a bit more of a passing element to their arsenal this season. Utah State, save for the 42-6 loss to LSU, has done a good job at stopping the run this year. But the big key here is that the Aggies are last in the country in time of possession. The defense figures to be on the field a LOT of the time Saturday night and is likely to wear down as the game progresses. The only MWC loss Air Force has suffered this was to Boise State, on the road. While they lost that game 30-19 as eight-point underdogs, they actually were dead even in total yardage (355-355) and were up late in the third quarter. The other loss was to Navy, which is always a tricky matchup. Utah State has lost two of its three road games so far and those two losses were the only games so far this season where they were underdogs. Three of their four wins have been in games where they were favored by three touchdowns or more. They are just 4-10 SU the L14 times being underdogs. The TOP element is going to be a big deal here and we look for the favorite to pull away late. 8* Air Force |
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10-26-19 | Maryland +16.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 10-52 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
8* Maryland (3:30 ET): What has gone wrong w/ Maryland? Once touted as an up-and-coming program, the Terrapins have seen their season go "sideways" w/ last week's 34-28 setback vs. Indiana being their 4th loss in the last 5 games (only win was against Rutgers). Of course, we backed the Terps in that lone win. We'll do it again this week as we remain highly skeptical of Minnesota despite its unbeaten record. The Golden Gophers are also off a convincing win over Rutgers, running their YTD record to 7-0 SU. But four of those wins have come by 7 points or less and it's not like they've played a ton of heavyweights. Too many points to pass up here as Maryland is an attractive underdog in this spot. Grab the number. It would be easy to pin Maryland's recent woes on the fact they were starting a backup QB. Tyrrell Pigrome went 0-2 in place of an injured Josh Jackson, who is expected to return here. Two late turnovers, one of them a Pigrome INT, cost Maryland dearly last week in College Park. That came not long after a fumble led to the eventual GW FG for Indiana. While on the surface, things may not look as if they are going too well for 1st year HC Mike Locksley right now, this is a team that was ranked in the Top 25 last month. Even w/ a backup QB, the Terps averaged nearly 400 YPG the L2 games. Not only is Jackson expected back this week, but so too is RB Anthony McFarland, who was also dealing w/ an ankle sprain. It certainly won't be easy for Minnesota to outscore Maryland by the amount the oddsmakers are calling for here. The Golden Gophers may be ranked 17th in the country, but I'm not sure anyone believes there are only 16 teams better than this one. There's probably more than 25 teams that would be favored against them on a neutral field, including six from the Big 10! Maryland may not be one of them, but the Terrapins deserve more respect than this w/ their QB and RB both set to return. They have beaten Minnesota each of the last two years including as a 13-point dog here at TCF Bank Stadium two years ago. Last year, it was a 42-13 game at College Park and the Terps probably were a weaker team then. Look for Minnesota's 4-game ATS win streak to come to an end here as the 'dog should keep this one within single digits. 8* Maryland |
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10-26-19 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State +24 | Top | 41-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
8* Kansas State (12:00 ET): It's not like Kansas State is a bad team or incapable of pulling an upset. Just last week, here in Manhattan, the Wildcats beat TCU 24-17 as 4.5-point pups. They also went to Mississippi State earlier and the year and won outright. A couple losses to Oklahoma State and Baylor have lowered their profile somewhat, but we still don't think they should be catching this many points, even against mighty Oklahoma. The unbeaten Sooners are probably feeling pretty good about themselves coming off a 52-14 beatdown of West Virginia last Saturday. But prior to next week's open date, I can see a letdown taking place here. We've seen some unbeatens go down as big favorite the last couple Saturday's. So take the points here w/ a dog that should be giving its 'A effort'. It would obviously take a 'Herculean effort' from Kansas State to pull the upset. But it's a chance for 1st year HC Chris Klieman to certainly put his imprint on this program. Klieman took over for a legend, that being Bill Snyder, and I think he's certainly done a good job here so far. That shouldn't be a shock considering the success he had at North Dakota State, which was one of the premier FCS teams every year during his tenure there. While an outright upset is admittedly unlikely Saturday in Manhattan, the home dog can certainly stay within this generous number. Last week's upset of TCU brought the Wildcats' ATS record as a home dog to 16-8 the L11 seasons. It was a game they actually never trailed. The surprising thing about Oklahoma this year has been the play of the defense, which ranks 28th nationally in yards allowed. But that unit has lost LB Jon-Michael Terry for the year. The Sooners did outclass Texas in the RRR, but other than that haven't really played anybody of note. They've faced the three worst teams in the Big 12. So the fact they are racking up big margins of victory is not that shocking. A Kansas State defense that has allowed more than 26 pts just one time in 2019 should be OU's 2nd real "test" of the season. The Sooners are just 3-7 ATS following a SU win by 20+ points. Kansas State has upset Oklahoma twice in the past seven years and certainly is out to avenge last year's 37-point loss in Norman. 8* Kansas State |
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10-26-19 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 13 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (12:00 ET): "The U" probably didn't figure it would be getting this many points from Pitt in a late October clash. Then again, they probably didn't anticipate being 3-4 SU coming into this game either. But those are the realities heading into this Saturday at Heinz Field. Last week, the Hurricanes lost outright as 18.5-point favorites to Georgia Tech, a real embarrassment considering the Yellow Jackets had yet to cover a spread all season. You should look for the 'Canes to bounce back and play inspired ball this week, however. We remain unsold on Pitt, a team that is 5-0 ATS its last five games. With that ATS record, note the Panthers have only been favored twice and never by more than 4.5 points! The last four wins have been by a total of 14 points. Take the points. Despite being favored in all of the last six games, Miami is just 3-3 straight up. That's pretty shocking to see. Before losing to Ga Tech, the team's previous loss came to Virginia Tech. You may recall we backed them the following week and they pulled what could be called an upset over a ranked Virginia team (Miami was actually -3 in the game). One certainly has to hope that LW's loss will prove to the nadir of HC Manny Diaz's 1st year here in Coral Gables. It was an overtime loss where Miami had the potential GW field goal (just 25 yards!) blocked at the end of regulation. They also gave up a TD on a fake punt and had a fumble recovered in the end zone for another score. All four Miami losses this year have come by seven points or less. Pitt played Penn State tough and owns an outright win over UCF. They've also picked up a pair of ACC road wins the L2 weeks, beating Duke and Syracuse. But this is a team that was favored by only 4.5 over Ohio U here at home earlier this season. As alluded to above, last week's win at Syracuse marked just the second lined game all season in which the Panthers were the betting favorite. Last year, Miami crushed Pitt 24-3 as the Panthers had a spot in the ACC Championship Game already sewn up. We backed the Hurricanes that day and will do so again this year. Ironically, Miami's only loss to Pitt in the L4 years came in 2017 when they were ranked #2 in the country! While Pitt is 5-2 SU overall, they have a YTD point differential of +1. The Miami defense is allowing a fewer number of points per game. 10* Miami (FL) |
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10-25-19 | Suns +11 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-108 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns are going to need to learn to win w/o the services of Deandre Ayton because the former #1 overall draft pick is now suspended for 25 games due to failing a drug test. Ayton did have 18 pts and 14 rebounds on 9 of 14 shooting in the team's opening night win over Sacramento. Despite winning by 29, Phoenix actually trailed at halftime in that game. But they poured it on in the second half, outscoring the Kings 70-36. The encouraging sign is that they got contributions from a variety of players, so Ayton's absence may be overblown, at least in the short-term. We're taking the points w/ the Suns tonight in Denver as this looks to be a classic oddsmakers' overreaction. The Nuggets also opened their season w/ a win, 108-100 at Portland as 1.5-pt favorites. Last season was a big breakthrough for Denver as they finished second overall in the Western Conference. Wednesday's opener was a big deal to them as it was a bit of revenge for being eliminated by Portland in the second round of last year's playoffs. I expect Denver to regress some in 2019-20 as it's not likely that they'll be able to match LY's amazing 13-3 SU record in games decided by three points or less. There were actually three other teams out West besides top seed Golden State that finished w/ better regular season point differentials than the Nuggets. We don't have them finishing top four in the Conference this year. This is a lot of points to lay, especially this early in the season. Again, you get the sense that oddsmakers had to react to the Ayton suspension. But it seems like an overreaction on this end. He'll be missed, but the Suns seem to be improved this year even w/o Ayton. His production cannot be replaced by one player obviously, but collectively the scoring slack can be picked up. One of the most encouraging signs from the first game was Phoenix holding Sacramento to 39.0% shooting. Ayton was actually a bit of a defensive liability and his replacement (Aron Baynes) is an upgrade on that end of the floor. Take the points here. 10* Phoenix |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:30 ET): We lost two more unbeaten teams last week (Wisconsin, Boise State), dropping the number left nationally to 10. Among those 10 teams, SMU has to be considered one of the more surprising on the list. The Ponies have reached a level that the program has not seen since pre-"Death Penalty." This was not really expected from Sonny Dykes' team in 2019 in what should still be considered a pretty loaded West Division in the American. SMU was actually a slight dog at Arkansas State in Week 1. Since then, they've been an underdog only one other time (at TCU), yet this is the first time all season they truly feel "overvalued." Houston has essentially had the exact opposite season of SMU w/ numerous players electing to redshirt, leading to a very disappointing 3-4 SU record. Before the season started, it would have been considered highly unlikely that SMU would be favored in this game. Being favored by double digits would be almost inconceivable. Yet here we are. The Cougars' QB situation is something worth monitoring as Clayton Tune is expected to return and start. Tune has not been healthy since the Sept 28 vs. North Texas, which was his first start. Remember that Tune was only called into duty because D'Eriq King redshirted. UH should be a much different team w/ a healthy Tune back this week. SMU is now ranked #16 in the country and is the highest ranked "Group of 5" team. So they've got a target on their back now. The only game they've failed to cover was two weeks ago as a DD favorite vs. Tulsa. Off an impressive win LW over Temple w/ Memphis on deck, the Mustangs are in a prime lookahead situation against a team hungry for a win on the national stage. Two of Houston's losses have been by seven points and all four were to pretty good teams. SMU is good, but they aren't the 16th best team in the country by any means. We don't even consider them in the top 30. SMU was a 14-point dog when it faced Houston AT HOME last year. Now they are two TD favorites on the road. SMU pulled the outright upset LY too. Home team has won four straight and 7 of 8 in this Texas rivalry. This is the most points Houston has gotten at home in some time. 10* Houston |
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10-24-19 | Hawks +1 v. Pistons | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): Last night saw the Pistons go into Indiana, without Blake Griffin, and upset the Pacers 119-110 as seven-point underdogs. Now Indiana was w/o Victor Oladipo as well. Griffin is out indefinitely w/ a hamstring injury. So let's see how Detroit handles his absence in the second game of a back to back. Maybe you're right to not expect much from the Hawks this year, but they should be improved after the doldrums of the past couple seasons. Plus they are rested here. Take the points. Atlanta is one of just four teams yet to play a game. This is a young team, save for Vince Carter (who is ironically the oldest player in the league), with 12 players at 25 years of age or younger. They added TWO lottery picks w/ De'Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish. After winning only 24 games in 2017-18 and 29 last season, the Hawks should improve more this year. They have covered the last three times they've played here in Detroit. They were also 23-17 ATS as an away dog last season. The Pistons typically have NOT been a good shooting team the last couple seasons, but did make 52.6% of their field goal attempts last night. Expect poorer shooting tonight. They were trailing going into the 4Q last night, but Luke Kennard made a trio of three-pointers down the stretch, finshing w/ 30 pts off the bench. For the game, Kennard made a career-best six three-pointers. Andre Drummond, who played 41 minutes, had 32 pts and 23 rebounds. Neither Drummond nor Kennard are likely to replicate those kind of numbers tonight. Indiana also lost T.J. Warren down the stretch last night, which was another key factor in the final result. 10* Atlanta |
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10-22-19 | Lakers v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 102-112 | Win | 100 | 15 h 52 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Anyone who bought into the preseason hype of LeBron James in LA paid dearly last season as the Lakers were the second worst in the league ATS, finishing 34-46-2. Only the Knicks did a (slightly) worse job at the betting window. Now Anthony Davis is in LA, meaning the hype train has gained even MORE steam. But the Lakers aren’t even the best team in the city right now. The Clippers added Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and are one of the favorites to win the NBA Title. Remember - unlike the Lakers - the Clippers actually made the playoffs last season. The better team is getting points on Opening Night. Take the points. George will not play Tuesday as he is still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery. But what was the deepest bench in the league adding Leonard to the mix is more than enough to compensate. We’ve got the Clippers finishing no worse than third in the Western Conference this year as it will probably be either them or Houston finishing on top. The Lakers won’t be any better than fourth in our projections. The Clippers were 49-38-1 ATS last season, which was one of the league’s better records at the pay window. They are being undervalued here. It remains to be seen how well James and Davis will mesh. James missed a career-high 27 games last year and his defense began to slip rather dramatically. The Lakers aren’t nearly as deep as the Clippers either. This line jumping the fence (Clippers opened as favorites) is a pretty big deal as the Lakers were just 17-26-2 ATS as chalk last season. DeMarcus Cousins proved to be a worthless signing as he’s out for the year. Kyle Kuzma also won’t play tonight. 8* LA Clippers |
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10-20-19 | Eagles +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): Coming into the year, we projected the Eagles to win the NFC East. But after three weeks, that projection wasn’t looking so hot. Philadelphia was 1-2 and Dallas was 3-0. But two weeks later, the teams were tied. Both lost last week. While the Cowboys still maintain the better YTD point differential, that’s still a byproduct of playing what was the league’s easiest schedule the first three weeks. They faced the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. We’re still confident in Philly winning this division and obviously so is their coach (more on that later). Take the points. Dallas has actually been favored in every game this year. I believe the Patriots and Chiefs are the only other teams that can say that. But after opening w/ that easy three-game stretch, they’ve lost three in a row outright, including an embarrassing setback last week at the hands of the Jets. The Jets were our Underdog POWER-SHOCKER, but even we were surprised at the relative ease with which they won that game (trailed by as many as 18!). The week prior saw the Cowboys fall behind the Packers by 28 points. Now they should be getting back both starting tackles along the O-line. However, their top two receivers are now both banged up. Eagles’ HC Doug Pederson has all but guaranteed a victory this week. HIs team is off a terrible showing in Minnesota where they lost 38-20. But the Vikings happen to be a very good team. This is a triple revenge spot for the Eagles, who lost both meetings last season and the final one in 2017. Road underdogs have been incredible this NFL season, covering nearly two-thirds of the time, and division games have often been the best spot to take them. Furthermore, Dallas is just 2-5 ATS the L7 times it has been favored by four points or less. 8* Philadelphia |
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10-20-19 | Ravens +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 42 h 9 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): I don’t think we’re alone in being surprised at Seattle’s 5-1 SU record. Yes, this was a playoff team last year. But after a 1st round exit, it “felt” like they would be taking a step back. The defense, once the identity of the franchise, is no longer what it once was. However, Russell Wilson is playing the best football of his career. Wilson has had a passer rating of 100+ in all six games w/ a 14-0 TD-INT ratio. He’s completing 73% of his passes at 9.0 YPA. However, I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks have been a bit lucky this year. All but one win, over Arizona, has been by four points or less. Take the points with Baltimore here. Wilson isn’t the only QB gaining headlines in this matchup. The Ravens’ Lamar Jackson is proving he’s no one-year wonder. He has a completion percentage and YPA similar to Wilson. He’s also obviously a bigger running threat. Last week, Jackson ran for 152 yards (against the Bengals). That was in addition to 236 yds passing. Baltimore seems to have a pretty clear path to win a weak AFC North right now. Since beating Miami 59-10 in the opener, they’ve actually been outscored by 5 points. They too (like Seattle) have had lots of close wins. But note they did outgain the Bengals almost 2:1 last week before giving up a garbage time TD. Neither team’s defense is what it used to be. But Seattle is giving up 6.5 yards per play. They had to come from behind to beat a sloppy Cleveland team last week. Baltimore has gone five straight games w/o covering, but this will be just the 2nd time all season that they have been an underdog. They are 11-5 ATS L16 road games. One factor tough to quantify is this will be Earl Thomas’ return to Seattle. Expect the Ravens’ safety to come out highly motivated and play well. At the end of the day, I just can’t see Seattle going to 6-1. 10* Baltimore |
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10-20-19 | Vikings -1 v. Lions | Top | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Many would argue that the Lions were “robbed” Monday night. Two BAD penalties went against them late in a 23-22 loss to the Packers. But settling for five field goals was the real culprit in a game where they were actually outgained 447-299. Refs or no refs, you can’t lose a game where you were +3 in turnovers, even w/ that difference in total yardage. This week, Detroit hosts a Minnesota team hungry for a divisional road win after losing at both Chicago and Green Bay. The Vikings are the better team here and we’ll lay the short number While they did lose at both Soldier and Lambeau Fields, the Vikings’ other four games have all been wins by 2 TD’s or more. They’ve been an excellent home team thus far, going 3-0 and winning by an average of 18 PPG. They too should have beaten the Packers as they outgained them by a huge margin - at least on a per play basis (7.4 to 4.8!) - in a Week 2 meeting in GB. But unlike the Lions, Minnesota was done in by a -3 TO differential against the Pack. The Vikings are 4-0 SU/ATS as favorites this year and 19-8 ATS L27 in the role (22-5 SU). So when the oddmakers like Mike Zimmer’s team, they often come through. While a lot of criticism is thrown Kirk Cousins’ way, one thing the Vikings do very well is run the ball. They are #3 in the league at 159 YPG. On the flip side, the defense is very good at stopping the run, allowing just 91 YPG. On a per play basis, Minnesota has one of the top yardage differentials in the league right now. Most power rating systems consider this one of the top five teams in the league, including ours. On a short week and off a brutal loss, we don’t see Detroit being able to hang here. The Vikings took both meetings LY, holding the Lions to just nine points in both games. 8* Minnesota |
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10-20-19 | Rams v. Falcons +3 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Two teams desperate for a win meet this week in Atlanta. It appears as if the old “Super Bowl loser’s curse” has afflicted the Rams, who opened 3-0, but are now 3-3. The Falcons are 1-5 SU after a BRUTAL one-point loss LW in Arizona, leaving HC Dan Quinn’s future very much in doubt. The big story coming into this game will be the new-look Rams secondary, which will have THREE new starters, including Jalen Ramsey, who was acquired in a trade w/ Jacksonville. Getting a player like Ramsey is huge, but it’s going to take awhile for this new secondary to gel. Take the points w/ an Atlanta team that is at home and desperate. Despite the Falcons’ poor start, QB Matt Ryan actually leads the league w/ 15 TD passes and has thrown for 300+ yards in every game. If he were able to throw for 300+ against this new Rams secondary, he’d be the first QB in NFL history to open a season w/ seven straight 300+ yd games. We think he can do it. The problem for Atlanta has been turnovers, though they’ve cut down on them in recent weeks. Remember this Rams’ defense gave up 55 pts to Tampa Bay a few weeks ago. Atlanta has scored 65 pts the L2 wks. They’ll put plenty of points on the board here. Last week saw the Falcons lose when veteran kicker Matt Bryant missed what would have been the game-tying XP. The week prior saw them fall apart late in Houston as that 53-32 final was actually a one score game at the two-minute warning! The Rams were totally outclassed by the 49ers last week, losing 20-7 at home as their high-powered offense was held to 165 total yards. We told you to take the 49ers and will fade the Rams again here. 8* Atlanta |
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10-19-19 | Boise State v. BYU +7 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
8* BYU (10:15 ET): Right now there are two teams in the top 20 we don't feel actually deserve to be there and they are Boise State and Arizona State. The latter is a DD dog this week at Utah, so obviously the oddsmakers have a similar view on the Sun Devils. But Boise State finds itself laying points in Provo, which isn't surprising, but does open up the opportunity for a "value pick" on BYU this week. Now the Cougars haven't been a good value each of the last three weeks, losing every game (SU and ATS) w/ the last two coming as favorites. They were actually road favorites the L2 games, so now they get to try the home dog role finally and it's one that should suit them quite well. Take the points. Boise State is one of 12 unbeatens we have left in College Football, so it's no surprise that they are ranked. They check in at #14 in the latest poll. For a frame of reference, we have them just outside the Top 25 in our own power rankings. Now you may recall us backing the Broncos back in Week 1 against Florida State. They won, as 6.5-pt underdogs, 36-31. But that win no longer looks as impressive (FSU just isn't that good) and they actually trailed 31-13 in the first half of that game. Since then, it's been nothing but cupcakes on the schedule. They are 5-1 ATS but a lot of the previous spreads seem low in retrospect (only -8 at home vs. Air Force?). QB Hank Bachmeier took a big hit last week against Hawaii and injured his hip. It was bad enough that he didn't play in the 2H and his status for this game is in question. That would obviously be a big loss for the Broncos. BYU is also dealing w/ an injury at the QB position. Jaren Hall suffered a concussion in LW's loss at USF. While concussions must be treated seriously, it seems like Hall is more likely to play than Bachmeier as the latter's injury being described as "not season ending" sounds serious. Neither side is expected to reveal who will start until close to kickoff. Nevertheless, we are on the dog here as BYU has definitely been unlucky the L2 wks (beyond the QB injury) as they outgained both Toledo and USF, only to lose both games. Both were one score games where the Cougars blew a 4th quarter lead. We'll take the points in this one as the home team is 7-2 SU all-time in this rivalry and LY saw BYU only lose by five on the blue turf (as a 13-pt dog). 8* BYU |
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10-19-19 | Kansas v. Texas -21 | Top | 48-50 | Loss | -105 | 49 h 29 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:00 ET): I can see people talking themselves into Kansas here as UT was just lost to Oklahoma in the RRR and now has to come back and lay three touchdowns. However, let's not get it twisted. This is a game the Longhorns should win big. The Horns were a little outclassed last week by OU, but we expected that and they still lost by only seven points. Their only other loss this year was also by seven, to LSU, so a pair of one-score losses to top five teams are their only blemishes. That's not bad. They remain a Top 20 team in the country while Kansas is still clearly at the bottom of the Big XII pecking order, despite having Les Miles as HC and a 24-point win over Boston College. Lay the points here. Texas should not have difficulty scoring points Saturday night in Austin as they are going up against a KU defense that ranks 103rd in efficiency. The Longhorns' offense is #12 in overall efficiency, led by QB Ehlinger, who has thrown for 17 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The game last week vs. Oklahoma was the 1st time all season Texas did NOT go over 400 total yards (only 310), but Kansas is giving up 444.5 YPG so far and that number gets even uglier when you factor out home games vs. Indiana State and Coastal Carolina. Coming off a conference loss, Texas has gone 5-2 ATS the last two seasons. Kansas did shock a lot of people when it went to Chesnut Hill on a Friday night and beat Boston College by 24 points. But that performance remains an outlier on their resume. Since then the Jayhawks are 0-3, including a 37-point loss at TCU. They lost by 25 at home to Oklahoma, which was two weeks ago. Here they are coming off a bye, but also have a new OC as Les Koenning was fired after the OU game. Brent Dearmon is the replacement and he inherits an offense that is averaging (easily) a Big XII low 22 PPG. Any kind of letdown UT might normally suffer here is mitigated by the fact they'll be taking KU very seriously due to an 0-3 ATS head to head record the L3 years. That includes an outright loss in Lawrence in 2016. Kansas lost to Coastal Carolina, at home, 12-7. They had less than 160 total yds of offense in the TCU game. We have this spread at four touchdowns, not three. The Longhorns should win comfortably and cover w/ "room to spare." It was a 24-7 game last year before Kansas scored a couple "garbage time" touchdowns. So don't be fooled by that final margin. 10* Texas |
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10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 25 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (4:00 ET): So we enter Saturday w/ 12 undefeated teams left in College Football. Obviously, by the end of the regular season there won't be nearly that many, if any, left. Of the 12 currently remaining, seven are firmly entrenched as top 10 teams (Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Oklahoma, Ohio State, Penn State, Wisconsin) while three others hail from the "Group of Five" (App State, Boise State, SMU), so they'll be facing "lighter" schedules. That leaves two outliers - Baylor and Minnesota. Few, if any, projected these teams to still be unbeaten by mid-October even though between the two they only have two upset victories, both as very small dogs. But they are the two "most likely" to lose between now and the end of the regular season. We'll call for Baylor's unbeaten run to end Saturday as they are slight underdogs at Oklahoma State. Both teams played Texas Tech their last time out. It was Baylor's turn last week and they needed 2 OT's to remain unbeaten, winning 33-30 as 10.5-point chalk. They needed a last second FG just to get into overtime. It was the Bears' third win this year by eight points or less, two of those coming in Big XII play (23-21 at home vs. Iowa St) and the other against a lousy Rice team. Tip your cap to the job Matt Rhule has done in Waco in just two seasons. His first ended with a 1-11 SU record as he inherited a total mess but then the team jumped to 7-6 last season. They're one win away from matching LY's win total. But Oklahoma State will be the toughest test they've had so far, especially w/ the game in Stillwater. Also, linebacker Clay Johnston is now done for the year (knee) and he led the defense in tackles by a wide margin. Oklahoma State is off a bye, so the situation favors them tremendously w/ Baylor also coming off a tough 2OT game. Yes, the Cowboys did lose to Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that was in Lubbock and they turned the ball over five times. We don't consider the different head-to-head results these teams had vs. Texas Tech to be all that significant. What we do consider significant though is the fact this is just the 5th time since 2013 that a team that's 6-0 SU or better is an underdog to an unranked opponent. The previous three all lost (by at least a touchdown) and that includes a game we played LY w/ Houston against USF (won by 21). Furthermore, the Pokes are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS when unranked and favored against a Top 25 team the L10 years. This is revenge game for OSU as well as they lost 35-31 in Waco (as 6-pt chalk) last year. 8* Oklahoma State |
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10-19-19 | LSU v. Mississippi State +18 | Top | 36-13 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 53 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): Mississippi State has fared very poorly its last two games, losing to Auburn and Tennessee by a combined 43 points. But both of those games were on the road. Now they are back in Starkville (where they are 13-4 SU/ATS L17) and not much is being expected as they are hosting #2 LSU. Mississippi State finds itself as the "meat" smack dab in the middle of a Florida-Auburn sandwich for LSU, who might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming off last week's 14-point win over the Gators in Baton Rouge. We don't think LSU is the #2 in the country, so they're a bit overrated right now as well. Take the points. Now there is no denying LSU has looked very impressive so far, especially on the offensive side of the ball w/ QB Joe Burrow. But this just reeks of being a flat spot in between two games against top 15 opponents, not to mention they have the showdown w/ Alabama after that. So this is the Tigers only game against a non-Top 15 opponent in five week's time. It's on the road where they've only had to go twice and one of those was Vanderbilt. The other was Texas, an impressive win, but it only came by seven points. LSU is 4-0-2 ATS on the season, so there's probably no better time than right now to fade as the public is in love w/ them. Florida actually had more first downs last week (28-22) and it was a one-score game the entire way before LSU put things away w/ a late TD. Early in the 3Q, LSU was down 28-21. Mississippi State has been favored in every game except Auburn this year, so at 3-3 SU they are clearly underachieving. Turnovers have been a problem for them as they've committed 10 in the L4 games, three of those being losses. The trip to Auburn was a disaster and then in an early kickoff (Noon ET) last week they fell behind Tennessee early. As a result, oddsmakers have jacked this price up several points higher than where we feel it should be at. LSU lost here two years ago, 37-7, and was slightly outgained in LY's meeting 260-239. The last four times Miss State has been a home dog, they are 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU w/ the only SU loss coming by 7 against Alabama (#1 at the time). Take the big number here. 8* Mississippi State |
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10-19-19 | Northern Illinois v. Miami-OH +2.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 48 m | Show |
10* Miami OH (2:30 ET): Truth be told, the MAC is not very good this year. No team will challenge for the Group of Five spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so it's all down to conference pride at this point. Both Northern Illinois and Miami were not shy about taking on challenging non-conference schedules. NIU made three consecutive visits to Utah, Nebraska and Vanderbilt, all P5 foes obviously and lost all three games. Meanwhile, Miami made unsuccessful visits to Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State. Both teams are 1-1 in MAC play and 2-4 SU overall. But one thing they don't have in common in last week's results. Northern Illinois went to Ohio and pulled the upset, coming from behind to win 39-36 as 4.5-pt dogs. Miami lost at Western Michigan in a misleading 38-16 final. We still have the RedHawks rated as the slightly better team, so it makes sense to take them here as a home dog. Northern Illinois was down 11 pts at halftime last week in Athens (even w/ a blocked punt returned for a TD) and appeared headed for what would have been a fifth consecutive loss. But the Huskies quickly got back in the game w/ two scoring drives in the 3Q and were actually ahead 29-21 halfway through the 4Q. But it took a FG as time expired to pull out the outright win. It should be noted NIU's only other win this year was against a FCS team (Illinois St) back in Week 1. Winning on the conference road B2B weeks is not easy to do, but that's what NIU is looking at here. Last year, coming off a big home win over Toledo (38-15 as 3-pt chalk), the Huskies would face Miami in DeKalb and lost 13-7 as seven-point favorites. They are just 4-9 ATS off their previous 13 MAC wins. Miami is a very solid 17-7 SU/ATS its last 24 conference games. Despite going 6-6 (SU) overall last year, they were not invited to a bowl. So they'll need a strong finish to guarantee a postseason game this year. Last week's loss to Western Michigan was misleading in the sense that they actually outgained the Broncos despite losing by 22. It was a 21-16 game early in the 4Q despite a pick-six having gone against them. Miami has three "easy" games remaining (Kent State, Bowling Green, Akron) that they should win, but they'll need another just to be bowl eligible. This is their best shot seeing as the other two games will be on the road. They are 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off the L6 conference losses and should get going offensively against a team giving up 33.2 PPG to FBS opponents. 10* Miami OH |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
9* Run Line NY Yankees (7:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where we are taking the Yankees +1.5. Last night, we grabbed the Astros +1.5, seeing tremendous value w/ a team that could certainly win the game "outright." Well, win is exactly what the Astros did, 7-3 and now the Yankees are on the verge of elimination. The Yanks' chances of winning this series aren't looking too good as Games 6 and 7 (if necessary) will be played in Houston. But Game 5 is still at home and we think they can stay alive, at least for another day. The Yankees losing three in a row at home would be pretty shocking. Tonight's pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, won by Justin Verlander and Houston. Verlander went 6 2/3 innings, allowing just two runs on five hits, as his TSR for the year moved to 26-11. James Paxton lasted only 2 1/3 innings as the Game 2 starter for the Yankees as it was the first time since July that they'd lost a game Paxton had started. (Had been 12-0 the previous 12). Though Verlander was clearly superior to Paxton in Game 2, it should be pointed out that the Astros still won the game by only one run. Such a result would be just fine by us tonight given we're playing the run line. It should be noted that Verlander is not infallible. He did lose one postseason start and it was on the road. It was his second start of the series as well as Tampa Bay got to him for four runs in Game 4 of the LDS. Verlander was done after just 3 2/3 IP. You have to figure the Yankees' offense is going to produce more after a disastrous Game 4 where they went 0 for 7 w/ RISP and stranded 10 runners. Four errors didn't help matters either. The Yankees are just 4 for 27 w/ RISP in the series, stranding 33 runners. This was MLB's highest scoring offense during the regular season. With a team this talented and a pitcher the caliber of Paxton set to start, getting a +1.5 at home is too good to pass up. This is just the 5th time in the last three seasons that NY is a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. They are 59-26 at home this year. 9* Run Line NY Yankees |
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10-18-19 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse +3.5 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 35 m | Show |
10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): We've played against Syracuse two times this season w/ very differing results. The first will likely end up as our easiest winner of the year as we went w/ Maryland, a pick 'em, and they beat the 'Cuse 63-20. A week after the Orange had been squeezed by Clemson (lost 41-6), we faded them again, this time as a short favorite here in the Carrier Dome. The opponent was Western Michigan, but the Cuse won 52-33, a game that was much closer than that score. Dino Babers' team is now 3-3 SU overall, losing all three times it has been a dog. They're a HOME dog Friday night vs. Pitt and this looks like a good spot to jump on board. Take the points. Pitt is 4-2 SU, but has actually been favored in one game vs. a FBS opponent. So Pat Narduzzi has his team overachieving w/ upsets of UCF and Duke. They also played Penn State tough, in Happy Valley, losing by just a TD. But they also only beat Delaware by three (17-14) at home. So good luck figuring this team out the rest of the way. Key to the close call vs. Delaware was the fact QB Kenny Pickett did not play (hurt his shoulder vs. UCF). Also, six other starters sat out that game. The Panthers came in at "full strength" for their last game against Duke and took a 26-3 lead early in the 2H. But they proceeded to blow all of that 23-point advantage and needed a last minute FG to secure the 33-30 win as 3-pt underdogs. Six Duke turnovers were crucial to the Panthers winning as well. Pitt's offense has certainly struggled at times. They've topped 20 points just two times. That won't be enough to win a second ACC road game in as many weeks, let alone cover. The Panthers have had 13 days off since beating Duke while Syracuse lost last Thursday to NC State. The Orange offense took awhile to get going last week, but was up against a good defense. This is the fourth home game in five weeks for Syracuse, so that counteracts the extra time Pitt has had to prepare. At 0-2 in ACC play (Pitt is 1-1), the Orange are going to come out desperate in what is a revenge game for them after losing 44-37 in overtime at Heinz Field last year. 10* Syracuse |
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10-17-19 | Chiefs v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 30-6 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:20 ET): All of a sudden, the Chiefs look vulnerable as they've dropped B2B games. In both losses the offense was held below 26 points, which was a threshold they had crossed in EVERY game with Patrick Mahomes as the starting QB. You have to wonder if a sprained ankle Mahomes suffered back in Week 1 is starting to be a contributing factor to the "offensive decline." The Colts held the Chiefs to just 13 points in a pretty shocking upset two weeks ago while Mahomes and company (didn't have the ball much in the 2H) could only manage 24 in a loss LW to the Texans. Both losses were at home. The "world" figures to be on KC here. But the Broncos are going to be just as motivated, if not more so, trying to snap a seven-game losing skid in this AFC West rivalry. Take the points. Denver's season has taken the exact opposite trajectory of KC's. They started w/ four straight losses, but have since won B2B games for 1st year HC Vic Fangio. We were on the first, calling it a "must-win" against the Chargers and Denver delivered w/ a 20-13 upset as 6.5-point dogs. Last week was a 16-0 shutout of the Titans as the defense stepped up big again. The Broncos have played better than you might think for a team that started 0-4. They've led going into the fourth quarter each of the last three weeks and two of their four losses came on last second FG's at home. Their record easily could be 4-2 right now. Note the Broncos have outgained opponents by almost 30 YPG this year. After forcing zero turnovers the first four weeks, the defense has SIX the last two. They've also allowed the 4th fewest YPG (307.8) on the year and have scored the same number of points that they have allowed While the ankle injury may have originally occurred in Week 1, Mahomes definitely re-aggravated it in the game vs. Indianapolis two weeks ago. The Chiefs' offense hasn't looked the same since. The offensive line has struggled both in the run game and pass protection. Mahomes' completion percentage the L2 weeks were his two lowest of the season. Then there is the issue of the Chiefs' defense, which wasn't good last year and has now given up 180+ yards rushing four straight games. To beat Kansas City, you need to own the line of scrimmage (like Indy did) and we think Denver is capable of doing just that. The L3 seasons have seen the Broncos go a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog of three points or less w/ three outright wins. 10* Denver |
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10-17-19 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
7* Run Line Houston (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. This is a rematch of the pitching matchup from Game 1 w/ Zack Greinke taking on Masahiro Tanaka. The first time around saw Tanaka and the Yankees prevail 7-0. It would be easy to look at that final score and say "Greinke struggled again," but that's not really the case. He gave up three runs in six innings, which by definition is a quality start. Now the five home runs he's allowed in two playoff starts is a bit alarming. But the opportunity to get Greinke +1.5, something that happened only FIVE times during the regular season, seems too good to pass up. This will actually be Greinke's third time going head to head w/ Tanaka in 2019. He and the Astros have come out on the losing end of the previous two, which includes a July 31st matchup here at Yankee Stadium. That was one of the five times in the regular season you could have taken Greinke +1.5 as he was a dog on the money line. The Astros lost 7-5. But the three previous times you would have cashed a winning ticket. Greinke didn't pitch poorly in that July 31st start either, allowing just two runs in five innings. In fact, in three starts vs. the Yankees this season, Greinke has allowed just six runs in 18 2/3 IP (beat them back on April 30th). Greinke's third time facing Tanaka could be the charm. We came into this series believing the Astros were the better team and here they are w/ a 2-1 series lead. Yesterday's rainout will allow for Houston to trot out its three stud starters all in a row again for Games 4 through 6, if need be. There seems to be a mentality that the Yankees "have to have" this one as Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole are looming. That's probably true, especially because a loss tonight puts the Yanks in a 3-1 hole. But that doesn't mean they WILL win. At no point this year has Houston lost three straight Greinke starts all by more than one run. Five of the 14 times they lost w/ him starting this year have been one-run games. We're willing to bank the Astros do no worse than a one-run loss here. 7* Run Line Houston (+1.5) |
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10-14-19 | Lions v. Packers -3.5 | Top | 22-23 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:20 ET): Believe it or not, the Lions have won and covered all four games vs. the Packers the L2 seasons. Of course, those weren't particularly great years for Green Bay. Two years ago, Aaron Rodgers missed a large chunk of the season and the team went just 7-9 SU. Last year proved to be the swan song for former HC Mike McCarthy who was shown the door after a 6-9-1 SU finish, which was one less win than the previous year despite having Rodgers the entire time. But 2019 just "felt" like it might be different. With Matt LaFleur now in charge, we were relatively high on the Packers coming into the season and sure enough, they've raced out to a 4-1 SU start and lead the NFC North. They've already picked up key division wins over the Bears and Vikings. Now they face the Lions, who are a surprising 2-1-1 and off a bye. We don't have any doubt who the better team is here. Some nice line value now thanks to the move. Lay the short number. The week before the bye saw the Lions lose a tough one to the Chiefs, 34-30. Maybe that's why some bettors seem interested in them this week. But despite playing KC tough for four quarters, we still have our doubts about the long-term success of this Detroit team. The defense is giving up over 400 YPG, which is something that only five other teams can say. They really struggle against the pass, giving up 280.8 YPG through the air, which ranks 30th and could obviously be a problem facing the likes of Rodgers, who has had some big MNF games in the past. Rodgers comes into tonight w/ a streak of four straight MNF games w/ 300+ yards passing. A big reason the Lions struggle against the pass is they don't rush the QB all that well. Both teams have played mostly close games. In fact, all four Detroit games have been decided by 4 pts or less. But Green Bay's performance last week was more impressive than anything Detroit has done this season. The Packers led Dallas by as many as 28 as they moved to 4-1 SU and ATS. They ended up beating the Cowboys by 10. Green Bay's only loss this year was their last home game, a Thursday night matchup w/ Philadelphia where the offense still gained nearly 500 total yards. Where the spread is now, oddsmakers are basically saying these teams are even w/ the Pack getting credit for being at home. We'd have GB favored by 3.5 on a neutral field, so there's definitely value taking them at this number at Lambeau. 10* Green Bay |
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10-14-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -190 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
6* Run Line St. Louis (7:38 ET): Please note this is a run line play where we are backing the Cardinals +1.5. A starter the caliber of Jack Flaherty getting 1.5 runs seems like a nice deal even having to lay this much juice. Ironically, we took the +1.5 against Flaherty when he started Game 2 of the LDS vs. Atlanta. Though he pitched well in that game, giving up only three runs in seven innings, the Cardinals lost 3-0. But Flaherty didn't even need to pitch well in his 2nd LDS start. That's because by the time he threw his first pitch, he had been handed a historic 10-0 lead! That was Game 5, which the Cards went onto win 13-1. For the record, Flaherty still did his part by giving up just one run and four hits in six innings. We'll back him here via the run line. Flaherty has certainly done his part down the stretch for St. Louis. He's given them 10 consecutive quality outings. During that time, he's allowed just 11 runs and 37 hits w/ 85 K's (only 12 walks). It's not often you get the opportunity to take a pitcher of this caliber +1.5. Now Flaherty is being opposed by Stephen Strasburg, who is in the midst of his own dominant stretch. But Flaherty does have a lower ERA and WHIP than Strasburg over the course of the entire season. Washington was the favorite coming into the series and is obviously now in an even stronger position after taking the first two games in St. Louis. Were the Nats to lose here, we'd strongly consider backing them in Game 4. But for Game 3, we're willing to say they won't win by more than one run. This is the second time St. Louis has lost B2B games in these playoffs. The first time was Games 2 & 3 vs. Atlanta. We then backed them in Game 4, which they won in extra innings. They've lost three in row just twice since the All-Star Break and the only team to beat them three in a row was the Dodgers (all in LA). We agree w/ the notion of Washington being favored in this series, but Flaherty +1.5 is too good to pass up. Obviously, the Cardinals are going to have to discover some offense. Assuming they do, advantages in fielding and in the bullpen should be enough to carry them to a Game 3 victory. At the very least, they'll lose by only one run. By the way, Washington has scored only five runs in two games. 6* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5) |
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10-13-19 | Steelers +7 v. Chargers | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): It's been nothing short of a disastrous start to the season for the Steelers, who are down to their third string QB Devlin Hodges, an undrafted player from a FCS school It's not like Hodges didn't succeed in College. He was actually the Player of the Year in 2018 as he finished his four-year career at Samford w/ the most passing yards in FCS history! Don't be surprised if the Steelers' offense actually ends up performing better with Hodges operating under center. Mason Rudolph obviously wasn't the answer, yet I thought the Black & Gold actually performed admirably in LW's 26-23 OT loss to Baltimore. That was the Steelers' third loss by four points or less. So they've been a competitive team. Take the points Sunday night. We faded the Chargers last week as well. They were laying a similar spread to winless Denver and lost outright, 20-13. The offense turned the ball over three times and gained only 246 total yards. While Philip Rivers will be making his 214th consecutive start (213 more than Hodges) and RB Melvin Gordon is back, the Chargers are far from full strength right now. TE Hunter Henry might return. But four of the five offensive lineman have three or less years experience and there's a new center. There are just a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball for this team. Turnovers have been a problem as they have 2+ in three of five games. The Chargers' only win in regulation this year came against Miami. With injuries to the receivers, Rivers averaged just 4.4 yards per completion last week. Again, the Miami game was the only one where the LA offense scored more than 24 pts in regulation. So they're a shaky favorite in this spot. Pittsburgh's defense has allowed just 175 and 277 total yards the last two games. Hodges is obviously a total Wild Card entering this game, but we're willing to bank he's no liability. Incredibly, QB's making their first career start this year are a perfect 7-0 ATS! The Steelers are 6-1-1 ATS as an underdog the L2 seasons and it's not like the Chargers have any kind of real homefield advantage. They are just 6-12-1 ATS at home since returning to LA. 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets +8 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 44 h 5 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (4:25 ET): Our preseason projection on the Jets has been downgraded severely, but the main culprit for the team's poor play these first four games has obviously been the QB situation. That changes this week w/ the return of Sam Darnold. The 2nd year signal caller has missed the L3 games w/ mono and the results have been nothing short of disastrous. The Jets have been outscored 84-23 while scoring just ONE offensive touchdown! The one game Darnold did start was the opener vs. Buffalo and that's a game the Jets "should have" won (lost by 1) as they led 16-0 and forced four turnovers. They may not win this week, but Darnold will have them competitive. Take the points. Things were looking great for Dallas through three weeks as they opened the season 3-0. But while the offense was putting up nice looking numbers, that had just as much to do w/ whom they were facing. It was the Eli Manning-led Giants, Washington and Miami. The latter two both remain winless and are a combined 0-9 SU. Since then, the Cowboys have suffered B2B upsets at the hands of New Orleans and Green Bay. The offense scored only 10 pts in New Orleans and then turned it over three times LW vs. Green Bay. Even though it ended up being a 31-24 final, the Cowboys initially trailed the Packers 31-3. It's hard to win in this league by more than a TD on the road. We're willing to bank Dallas fails to do so here. Darnold may not be an All-Pro, but the upgrade from third-stringer Luke Falk is massing. Remember that backup Trevor Siemian broke his leg in the second game. The two games Falk started - the Jets gained just 233 yards total! RB Le'Veon Bell was rendered a non-factor as opposing defenses did not have to fear the pass. With Darnold back, that changes. On defense, the Jets are obviously going to have to be focused on stopping the run as they get set to face Ezekiel Elliot. Fortunately, they are giving up just 3.4 yards per carry and 87 yds rushing per game. The Jets won't lose 'em all this year, as with Darnold this projected to be a competitive team. 8* NY Jets |
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10-13-19 | Titans +2.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-16 | Loss | -117 | 44 h 4 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (4:25 ET): Picking Titans' games have been a challenge this year, but we've tried 'em all - to mixed results. The one constant has been the underdog winning all five games outright. Last week was not a good result for the Titans or us as they lost outright as home favorites to Buffalo. Facing a very good Bills' defense, Tennessee simply could not get anything going on offense as they gained only 252 yards in a 14-7 loss. But key was missing FOUR field goals. Kicker Cario Santos was quickly jettisoned after the loss and replaced ironically by Cody Parkey, who gained infamy for his own poor kicking effort in last year's playoffs w/ the Bears. Despite what happened last week, Tennessee is still a pretty good team and should not be getting points against 1-win Denver. The Broncos got their first win under HC Vic Fangio last week, beating the Chargers on the road 20-13. We took them as underdogs, noting it was probably time for them to "get off the schnide" and that's what happened as they held on after a fast start. It was 14-0 after the 1st quarter and three Chargers turnovers definitely aided in the upset win. But we'd remain leery of Denver as a favorite, a role which they've been in twice and lost both games outright. Joe Flacco is definitely not the long-term answer at QB, nor do we think he's a good short-term option either. Look for the Broncos offense to struggle here against a top five scoring defense. The last time Tennessee were road dogs, we grabbed them and they turned in a dominant effort at Atlanta, winning that game 24-10. They are 2-0 SU/ATS as road dogs having also won the season opener in Cleveland. The Tennessee offense hasn't been great so far, but they don't turn the ball over and Denver's secondary continues to be banged up. The Titans have turned it over just once, tying a NFL record through five games. Denver's defense hadn't forced any turnovers prior to last week. Turnovers can certainly be a fluent situation, but history suggests the Broncos won't win that battle. They more than likely don't win this game either. The last three seasons have seen Denver go 4-13 ATS as a favorite including 0-5 as home chalk of three points or less. Take the points. 8* Tennessee |
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10-13-19 | 49ers +3 v. Rams | Top | 20-7 | Win | 101 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:05 ET): The situation may not favor the 49ers here as they are coming off a Monday Night game and the Rams played last Thursday. But we believe them to be better team this year. Before you go accusing us of being "prisoners of the moment," note we were high on this 49ers team from the start. Back in Week 2, we took them in Cincinnati and told you to expect a surprisingly good season. They are now one of only two unbeatens left (Patriots) and ranked #2 overall in our power ratings. Take the points here as the Niners look to make another "statement." While the 49ers are ascending, the Rams look to be regressing. Last year's Super Bowl losers started 3-0 but have subsequently lost two straight games while giving up 85 points. The 55-40 loss to Tampa Bay (as 9-pt home favorites) was the real eye-opener. Note San Francisco held the Bucs to only 17 points (on the road) in an opening week victory. Last Thursday, the Rams lost 30-29 up in Seattle in a hard-fought game. Something you need to continue monitoring is the health of RB Todd Gurley. Gurley was effective in the 1st half last week when the Rams had the lead. But then he (again) vanished in the 2nd half as the game got away. Health is a concern and Gurley is listed as doubtful this week. On the defensive side of the ball, CB Aqib Talib is out. Something we want to make clear is that this potential "changing of the guard" in the NFC West is something we saw coming. All the metrics indicated across the board improvement for San Francisco this year. One was turnover differential Their defense intercepted only TWO passes the entire 2018 season. They've already intercepted SEVEN this year (in just 4 games!), which is tied for 2nd most in the league. Meanwhile, the Rams were lucky to be 6-1 SU in games decided by 7 pts or less in 2018. Last year, the 49ers defense gave up 88 points in two games against the Rams. That same defense has yet to allow more than 320 yards in a game this season. On offense, SF is battling a couple key injuries of their own (expect TE George Kittle to play). But they still have the top rushing attack in the league (over 200 YPG) w/ three different backs averaging at least 5.5 YPG. Since 2003, teams that are 4-0 SU or better and getting points have gone 15-8-1 ATS including four straight covers. 10* San Francisco |
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10-13-19 | Saints v. Jaguars -1 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -120 | 41 h 40 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Teddy Bridgewater's chances of earning a big payday as a starter in this league have probably passed. But he's definitely earned a nice ROI for anyone that's consistently bet him when he does start. Bridgewater's career ATS record is now 26-7 as a starting QB in the NFL, the best such mark EVER (15 starts min). That includes 3-0 ATS w/ the Saints this year as he's guided the team to "upsets" over Seattle and Dallas, then cover as chalk LW vs. Tampa Bay. It's clear that the oddsmakers adjusted too much w/ the Saints in the wake of the Drew Brees injury. But we think they've now "caught up" to them in a spot that screams "LOSS." All four of the Saints' wins this year have been by seven points or less, so despite Brees being hurt, they've been a bit lucky. Jacksonville has also had to turn to a backup QB this year, although in their case no one is complaining. Admittedly, when their big free agent signing Nick Foles (former Super Bowl MVP) went down in Week 1, there was a collective "groan" from the fanbase. But Gardner Minshew II has come from relative obscurity to become the new face of the franchise. The Jaguars might only be 2-2 SU w/ Minshew at the helm, but consider for a moment they've been an underdog in every game. This week will mark the 1st time all year that the Jags have been favored. It can be argued that they played well enough to win last week against Carolina as the offense gained over 500 yards. But a -3 turnover margin was too much to overcome as was Christian McCaffery's 237 yds from scrimmage. Brees may not be the only key absence for New Orleans this week. RB Alvin Kamara is now listed as questionable. Him not playing would be quite the significant development. An ankle injury kept Kamara out of practice Friday, so he won't be 100% regardless. He's been held under 70 yds rushing four straight games anyway. Jalen Ramsey may be out for Jacksonville, but they're used to that now. Two things Jacksonville needs to do here. Feed Leonard Fournette (333 yds L2 games) and take care of the football. Do that and they'll drop the Saints to 2-5 SU/ATS their L7 as a road dog of 3 pts or less. It's time for the Bridgewater-led Saints to drop one. 10* Jacksonville |
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10-12-19 | Wyoming v. San Diego State -3.5 | Top | 22-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Wyoming is about as fraudulent as any 4-1 team in the country right now as they've trailed by double digits in four of five games (including three wins) and have been outgained by an average of nearly 50 yards per game. Their only convincing effort came two weeks ago against a rapidly failing UNLV regime. Even w/ the benefit of a bye, we don't see the Cowboys duplicating that kind of effort Saturday night at San Diego State, who is also 4-1. While having the same record as Wyoming, SDSU happens to be outgaining its opponents by an average of about 50 YPG. They have a great defense and are at home, so we'll lay the short number in this one. When this College Football season is over, we may look back at Wyoming's upset of Missouri in Week 1 as the most shocking result of 2019. The Cowboys were outgained in that game by 148 yards, but fortunate to be +3 in turnovers. Wins over Texas State and Idaho weren't impressive either as the Pokes were outgained in both of those games (Idaho is a FCS team now) and again trailed by DD in the first half both times. The following week, they trailed Tulsa by DD in the 2H, but a late rally was able to sneak them under the number (+3.5) in a 24-21 loss. Again they were outgained. Then came the UNLV game where the Cowboys did look good, but again the opponent will more than likely have a new coach next year. Wyoming has yet to lose the TO battle in any game this year, so that's another area where they've been fortunate. San Diego State won its turnover battle (+4) last week in a 24-10 win over Colorado State. Often, we might call that a lucky win then, but not with this Aztecs' defense. SDSU has allowed fewer than 330 yds in all four of its wins this season. Their only loss came at home to Utah State, a game they fell in an early 20-3 hole due to a pick-six. Even then, they fought back and lost by only six points (23-17). That's the last time they played at home and after tonight, they won't be at home again until November 9th! So that should be a motivating factor. Somehow, the Aztecs are 0 for their last 8 ATS as home favorites. Look for that streak to end here as the defense has not given up more than 16 points in any game this year (excludes pick-six vs. Utah State). 8* San Diego State |
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10-12-19 | Nebraska +7.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 7-34 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (7:30 ET): While Nebraska is dealing w/ an injury at the QB position, the genesis of this play is that we simply do not think Minnesota is very good. We certainly have the Golden Gophers as the weakest of the 14 remaining unbeatens. For the sake of comparison, we don't even have Minnesota rated among the Top 50 in our power rankings. All but three of the 14 unbeaten teams are inside our top 35. That includes the top eight. So once again, we see not all records are created equal. In the case of the Gophers, they've got four wins by seven points or less. So they've been extremely fortunate so far. Nebraska would have killed for such good fortune last season when it suffered an amazing five losses by five points or less. We smell a reversal of fortune Saturday night in this Big 10 matchup. Take the points. Minnesota turned in - by far - its most complete performance last week. They beat Illinois 40-17, led by Rodney Smith's career-high 211 yards rushing. When all was said and done, the Gophers finished w/ 332 yds on the ground. Nebraska's run defense has basically been the opposite of "stout" in Big 10 play so far, but they still are allowing only 4.0 YPC. They gave up 157 yds rushing last week vs. Northwestern, but that was on 41 attempts. Also, Minnesota had failed to run for even 100 yds on the ground in its previous two games and had not exceeded 150 in any game before facing Illinois. Let's not forget that the Gophers needed a late TD just to beat South Dakota State in the opener. The Fresno State game went to double overtime and then it was a TD in the final minute to beat Georgia Southern. Despite Purdue losing both its starting QB and top WR on the same play (!) in the 1Q, they were still able to stay within seven of the Gophers two weeks ago. The "elements" are expected to be a factor Saturday night at TCF Bank Stadium where temperatures are expected to be the coldest for any kickoff in the history of the stadium. Both teams are saying the right things and that they'll be ready. Still, this very well could end up being a low-scoring game where points are at a premium. (Like Nebraska's 13-10 win over N'western last week). That makes having the underdog feel like the right call. The other storyline for this game is the Cornhuskers' QB situation. Adrian Martinez did travel, but it's unclear if he'll be starting due to a knee injury suffered last week. Noah Vedral, a transfer from UCF (came w/ HC Scott Frost), would start if Martinez can't go. Vedral led the drive that ended w/ the GW FG vs. N'western last week. Last year in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers destroyed the Gophers 53-28 for their 1st win under Frost. 8* Nebraska |
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10-12-19 | Arkansas v. Kentucky -6.5 | Top | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (7:30 ET): UK has lost its last three games, all in the SEC. Not that we didn't expect the Wildcats to regress this year, but they suffered only three defeats ALL of last season en route to their best record since 1977! Two of the three losses this year have come on the road and in the last one (24-7 @ South Carolina), QB Sawyer Smith was clearly not himself (went 11 of 32 for just 90 yards!). It was later revealed that Smith came into the game banged up (shoulder). So the open date certainly came at an opportune time for Kentucky and now they come out of it w/ a favorable spot against an Arkansas team that may be the worst in the conference. We'll lay the points in this matchup as the Wildcats are due for a win and a big one at that. Arkansas also has three losses, though only two of them came in SEC play. The third was a terrible misfire against San Jose State as three-touchdown favorites in Fayatteville. The Razorbacks defense has been routinely shredded this year and will be a big step down from UK has faced so far in conference play. You do have to hand it to the Hogs as they were surprisingly competitive in a 31-27 loss at Texas A&M two weeks ago. They easily covered as 23.5-point underdogs, but that also was at a neutral setting (Cowboys Stadium). In the last 10 "true" road games, Arkansas has gone 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS, including a two touchdown loss at Ole Miss on September 7th, their only "true" roadie of the year so far. Being in different division in an expanded conference, these schools are not common opponents. They last met in 2012. Arkansas has not visited Lexington since 2008! While the perception that the West is the stronger of the two SEC divisions is absolutely true, don't tell that to the Razorbacks, who are just 3-9 SU vs. the East since 2013 w/ five consecutive losses. Their last cross-division win came in 2016 against Florida and that was at home. The last road win over a SEC East foe was 2015 at Tennessee. It's been almost a full month since the last time Kentucky played at home and that game saw them lead (still) unbeaten Florida into the 4Q. It was a 1-pt game into the final minute and the main reason UK lost at all was four turnovers. We project this to be a double-digit win. 8* Kentucky |
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10-12-19 | North Texas +3 v. Southern Miss | Top | 27-45 | Loss | -100 | 45 h 1 m | Show |
8* North Texas (7:00 ET): North Texas is a team that came into 2019 w/ aspirations of winning C-USA's West Division. After all, it was something they'd accomplished just two short years ago w/ 7-1 SU record in conference play. Their only regular season loss was to eventual champ FAU, who beat them again in the Title Game. The Mean Green didn't win the division LY, but still went 9-4 SU overall in what was considered another successful season. But this year's squad has disappointed thus far, most recently w/ an embarrassing 46-25 loss two weeks ago to a Houston team that had just seen a number of its best players redshirt. The loss was at home too! It was the Mean Green's third loss overall and second by 20 or more. Coming out of a bye, we're expecting better this week as they visit Hattiesburg to play Southern Miss. Take the points in a game North Texas probably did not expect to be an underdog. Southern Miss is also coming off a bye here. The Golden Eagles are 3-2 w/ mostly predictable results. They were blown out in two games vs. SEC teams (Miss State, Alabama) but easily handled the two bottom-feeders on the schedule (Alcorn State, UTEP). The only game they've been involved in that was expected to be competitive was at Troy and USM won a shootout, 47-42, as three-point underdogs. The Golden Eagles also had aspirations of winning the division this year, so this shapes up to be a key game. They've been the more "consistent" team (compared to North Texas), but just so happen to have pulled an upset while North Texas suffered the outright loss to Houston as 7.5-pt chalk. North Texas has beaten Southern Miss three straight years, including two upsets. Last year was a 30-7 beatdown in Denton despite 300+ yds passing from USM QB Jack Abraham. Something to note from that loss to Houston is that North Texas finished w/ a 456-359 edge in total yds. They got shell-shocked early, falling into an early 14-0 hole. After fighting their way back into the game, Houston would use TWO special teams TD's to pull away for good. Looking at North Texas' other losses, one was by only six points at Cal, whom they also outgained. Losing by 22 is never good, but the 49-27 loss to SMU may not be as bad as originally thought given the Mustangs are still undefeated. The Mean Green have underachieved a little, but it's not too late to turn things around. They have a QB in Mason Fine that has more passing yards than any active QB in FBS! 8* North Texas |
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10-12-19 | San Jose State +2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 38-41 | Loss | -100 | 42 h 1 m | Show |
10* San Jose State (4:00 ET): San Jose State seems to have "turned a corner" in recent weeks. They went out to Arkansas and delivered a shocking 31-24 upset as 20.5-point underdogs. Then last week, they were favored by a TD, something we haven't seen in a long time from them in forever - at least in conference play. The Spartans handled their business, beating New Mexico 32-21 as they used a fast start and six Lobos' turnovers to fuel their third straight ATS victory. Now they head to Nevada to face a Wolf Pack team licking its wounds after suffering a humiliating 54-3 defeat here in Reno, at the hands of Hawaii, two weeks ago. That's a result we remember quite well as we had Hawaii. We'll fade them again here as our numbers indicate SJSU is the better team on the field. Obviously, having had a week off, there's going to be an expectation that Nevada will be "motivated" to atone for what could be the most embarrassing loss in recent program history. Absolutely nothing went right against Hawaii, a game in which the Wolf Pack were outgained 512-203 and were -3 in turnovers. Coming out of the bye motivated sounds logical and nice, but what if the team simply isn't that good? As stated in our Hawaii-Nevada analysis, we were already pretty wary of a team that miraculously beat Purdue, lost to Oregon 77-6 and only beat FCS Weber State by six (19-13). Even a 37-21 win over lowly UTEP saw the Wolf Pack tied (21-21) in the 3Q. Then there is the QB situation as HC Jay Norvell has elected to start Malik Henry this week. Henry has never started a FBS game before. A first time starter going against a San Jose State defense that has 11 interceptions seems like a mismatch. It also might be that San Jose State is the more motivated side coming into this game. They've lost 9 of 10 to Nevada in a rivalry that goes all the way back to 1899! But they were close to winning last year and easily covered as 14-point underdogs. It was a two-point game in the 4Q. SJSU is a much better team this year having already tripled LY's win total. They've NEVER won a MWC road game in 2+ seasons under HC Brent Brennan, so again, we don't see Nevada necessarily being the more "motivated" side this week. Spartans QB Jose Love, now a senior, threw for over 400 yards against New Mexico and is completing nearly 62% of his pass attempts this year w/ only one interception. SJSU is 7-2 ATS the L9 times the line has been three points or less. 10* San Jose State |
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10-12-19 | South Carolina +23.5 v. Georgia | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 2 m | Show |
10* South Carolina (12:00 ET): For years, these two SEC East school would seemingly trade wins in what was a pretty even rivalry. But like 99% of the country, South Carolina is no longer at the same level as Georgia, who has become one of the elite programs in all of college football. UGA has now beaten South Carolina four years in a row w/ LY's 41-17 win being the most lopsided win in Columbia since 1971 and their most points EVER scored there. But even though the Dawgs are #3 in the country and have dominated the rivalry recently, not all history is against South Carolina this week. From 2010-2014, they upset Georgia three times. And then two years ago here in Athens, they easily covered a spread similar to this one in what was mostly a competitive game. We're going to take the points here, noting the Gamecocks are 8-2 ATS their L10 tries as underdogs as well as 11-5 ATS their L16 road games. South Carolina is off a bye here. That's helpful, especially for freshman QB Ryan Hilinski, who has been dealing w/ an elbow injury and had to miss the team's last game against Kentucky. But despite his absence, the Gamecocks still won the game easily, 24-7 as 3.5-pt home favorites. The defense was 2:32 away from a shutout when it allowed a meaningless TD. Hillinski is now back and should have some confidence, having already thrown for 324 yards and two touchdowns against Alabama in what was just his 2nd career start. Remember that Hilinksi wasn't even supposed to be the starter this year, but senior Jake Bentley broke his foot in the opener vs. North Carolina. That was a game South Carolina led 20-9 going into the 4Q. Even with a 3rd string QB, they dominated Kentucky two weeks ago, finishing w/ a 387-212 edge in total yds. So this team is probably better than you think. When betting an underdog like this, you hope for a game where the favorite plays it conservative and at a slow pace. Enter Georgia, who plays at one of the slowest paces in all of College Football. The Bulldogs like to run the ball a lot and are quite successful at it, but South Carolina's defense is pretty effective at stopping it as well, allowing just 3.8 yards per carry. So don't look for Georgia to have much opportunity to "open the game up." The Dawgs trailed late in the 1H LW @ Tennessee before taking over in the second half. They won't be able to do that here against a better team. After beating Notre Dame and Tennessee, this might be a "flat spot" for the favorite. 10* South Carolina |
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10-11-19 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -2 | Top | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (8:00 ET): This is the classic "unranked team favored over a Top 25 opponent" where the oddsmakers are blatantly tipping their hand, but the public rarely picks up on it. The reality is that there are 8-10 teams every year considerably better than the rest of the country. But after that, there isn't much difference between #11 and #35. Once you get out of the Top 15, the difference often gets really minimal, especially after factoring in homefield advantage. Virginia is a team that finds itself ranked #20 right now, but they barely crack our top 40. Miami is actually ahead of them in our power rankings, so we'll gladly lay the short number here for this Friday night matchup. Traditionally, when an unranked team is favored over a Top 25 opponent, they cover. It was just two Saturdays ago that we made clear our view of this Virginia team. They were #18 and taking on a Notre Dame team that was ranked 10th. Despite the relative "closeness" of the rankings, the Fighting Irish were giving double digits. We laid it. It was a little lucky, but Notre Dame got the cover thanks in large part to five UVA turnovers and won 35-20. It was the Cavaliers' third straight ATS loss. They'd been outgained in wins over Florida State and Old Dominion, gaining only 244 total yds against the latter. I'm just not much of a believer in Bronco Mendenhall's team. From a historical perspective, Friday games have not been kind to Virginia. They've lost 10 of the last 12. Also, no player on the current roster has ever won two straight ACC road games. Back in Week 1, the Cavs won 30-14 at Pitt. The last year where the program had multiple ACC road wins was 2011. Miami is just 2-3 SU. Outside of a 63-0 beatdown over FCS Bethune-Cookman, "The U" has hardly looked good. But all three of those losses have been by seven points, one of them to a Top 10 team (Florida). We've still got faith in the team. HC Manny Diaz, who was the DC last year under Mark Richt, has announced he'll be taking more of a "hands on" role on the defensive side of the ball this week. On offense, N'Kosi Perry will start at QB in place of the injured Jarren Williams. Fine by us as Perry was the one who very nearly led an improbable comeback against Virginia Tech last week. Williams threw three 1Q INT's as the 'Canes dug themselves an early 28-0 hole. Perry came in and threw for a career-high 422 yards & 4 TD's. Miami still lost 35-28 even w/ a 563-337 total yardage edge. They just couldn't overcome a -5 TO margin. They won't be digging themselves that kind of hole again and we look for them to win a "statement" game. 10* Miami FL |
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10-10-19 | UL-Monroe v. Texas State +3.5 | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Texas State (9:15 ET): Texas State hasn't had much luck beating LA Monroe (lost to them three straight years), but it's a new season and the game is in San Marcos Thursday night. The Bobcats didn't have a prayer of winning either of their two road games this year (at Texas A&M and SMU), but they've played relatively well at home. They actually come into this game on a two-game win streak, having beaten Georgia State 37-34 and FCS Nicholls State 24-3. The home record easily could be 3-0 as they outgained Wyoming 444-293, but lost a DD lead thanks to three turnovers. Look for the Bobcats to likely snap that three-year losing streak Thursday as we'll take the points. LA Monroe also comes in at 2-3. Like Texas State, they won their first Sun Belt Game (30-17 over South Alabama) and their only other win was against a FCS team (Grambling). But the Warhawks are 0-3 ATS the L3 games as they were -14.5 vs. South Alabama and have been blown out twice. After only losing by a single point at Florida State in Week 2, 45-44, there appeared to be some promise here. But we still remember what happened in Monroe's last road game as we made the unfortunate decision of taking them plus the +19. They lost 72-20 at Iowa State then two Saturdays ago they were blown out again, this time 52-33 at home by Memphis. Something that's a little interesting here is that these teams came into the year as two of the three most experienced teams in the entire country! This is a huge game in both team's hopes for improving and the bottom line is we feel the better team is the one getting points. While LA Monroe has already traveled to face two P5 teams, the fact that their defense has given up 45+ points three times is not encouraging. The Warhawks are already 0-2 ATS as favorites this season, leaving them at 3-7 ATS their L10 as chalk. The win over Georgia State snapped a stunning 12-game losing streak in conference home games for Texas State. They are hungry to now make it two wins in a row! The Bobcats have covered 5 of 7 against teams with losing records. 10* Texas State |
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10-10-19 | Giants v. Patriots -16.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
10* New England (8:20 ET): The Giants have covered five straight against the Patriots, all as underdogs, including a couple of very famous Super Bowl upsets. Also, the underdog is a perfect 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this year. But that's pretty much all the G-Men have going for them heading into this week's clash in Foxboro. It's just another year where New England is pacing the league. Right now, they're 5-0 and outscoring opponents by more than 20 points per game. Only one of those five games was decided by less than 16 points and it was on the road against a Buffalo team that has a very good defense. Our projections have the Patriots winning this game by three touchdowns. There had been a growing sense of optimism in the Giants' locker room after rookie Daniel Jones replaced the washed-up Eli Manning and led the team to two victories. The first was a huge comeback against Tampa Bay. Then a 24-3 win over the lousy Redskins. But then the G-Men ran into Minnesota last week and suffered an 18-point loss (28-10) at home. Jones wasn't very good against the Vikings, throwing for just 182 yards, and the team was outgained by more than a 2:1 margin (490-211). A big problem for Jones this week is that he's going to be w/o RB Saquon Barkley, Barkley's backup Wayne Gallman, WR Sterling Shepard and TE Evan Engram. They figure to REALLY struggle to move the ball in this contest. A short week doesn't help. Now that you're done reading the injury list for the Giants, let me now remind you that they are facing the Patriots here! The New England defense didn't even give up a touchdown until the 4th game and has allowed only two the entire season. Bill Belichick has a history of making rookie QB's look bad and Jones is likely to be the latest installment of that trend. The Patriots have a huge edge defensively in this game, not just because of their own exploits but also b/c of the Giants' ineptitude on that side of the ball. While the Pats allow just 238.4 YPG on 4.4 yards per play, the Giants allow 409 YPG on 6.8 YPP. This could easily turn into a 30-0 type game. 10* New England |
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10-10-19 | Rays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
8* Houston Run Line (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where we are backing the Astros -1.5. Winning a playoff baseball game by multiple runs isn't necessarily easy to do, but Houston w/ Gerrit Cole on the mound has been the closest thing to an automatic bet this year, thus we're willing to back the Astros at the reduced price that requires them to win this game by at least two runs. Since July 17th, the team is 14-0 in Cole starts, including a 3-1 victory in Game 2 of this series when he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings and set a franchise record w/ 15 K's in a postseason game. Look for Houston to advance - and win Game 5 by at least 2 runs. Not only are the Astros a perfect 14-0 in Cole's last 14 starts, the pitcher himself has not lost a decision going all the way back to May 22nd! For those of you who forgot their calendars this morning, that was almost five months (and 23 starts!) ago. The numbers are almost unreal w/ Cole posting a 0.91 ERA and 0.644 WHIP his last seven starts and a 2.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP this season at home. The team is 27-7 w/ Cole on the mound this year, including 16-2 here at Minute Maid Park. Only five of those 27 wins have been by one run. By the way, the Astros won both Games 1 & 2 by multiple runs, raising their home record this year to 62-21. On average, they are outscoring teams by 2.1 rpg at home. Tampa Bay has wisely adopted an "underdog strategy" for this series that involves heavy reliance on their bullpen. Eight Rays' pitchers have worked at least three innings in the series. This plays to the team's strength anyways as they have a very good bullpen. But the bottom line is they aren't quite as stingy on the road as they are at home (where both wins in this series have come). Tyler Glasnow will start Game 5 and he lasted just 4 1/3 IP in his Game 1 start, giving up two runs and a homer. The Rays ended up losing 6-2. We saw one of the World Series favorites (Dodgers) drop out yesterday, we can't envision the top AL team suffering the same fate. 8* Run Line Houston (-1.5) |
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10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Louisiana (8:00 ET): This is a battle of unbeatens, though of a different kind. Appalachian State is unbeaten in the "classic sense," in that they're 4-0 straight up, one of 16 teams left in the country w/o a SU loss. Meanwhile, Louisiana is the ONLY team left in the country that's unbeaten at the betting window as they come in at 5-0 ATS. We're proud to say that we were on this Ragin Cajun team a few weeks ago and while this Sun Belt rivalry has not gone well for them in year's past (0-6 all-time vs. Appalachian State), we're going to call for things to be different this time around. Go w/ the home team! It was three Saturdays ago when we backed Louisiana as a three-point dog at Ohio. They went in and beat Frank Solich's Bobcats 45-25, which is a very impressive win. Ohio had previously won 10 in a row at home before the Ragin Cajuns came to Athens. We should have followed up that big win w/ another play on Louisiana, but were a little "gun-shy" about laying points as they were playing on the road for a second straight week and facing a rested opponent. But despite a less than favorable situation, the Ragin Cajuns still managed to go in and beat Georgia State 37-24. In retrospect, we should have listened to the numbers. Our numbers again indicate they are being undervalued in this matchup and we will listen this time. What makes Louisiana so difficult to defend is that they have a three-headed rushing attack. Ragas, Mitchell and Calais have combined for over 1200 yards already and 17 touchdowns. All three are averaging at least 6.0 yards per carry. For the season, the Ragin Cajuns are averaging an incredible 314 yds rushing per game. Appalachian State's run defense isn't terrible, but they still allow 165 YPG and have given up 36.3 PPG the L3 weeks. The only team to beat Louisiana this year was Mississippi State. This is a huge revenge game for Louisiana as they lost twice to the Mountaineers last season, by 10 in the regular season and then by 11 in the SBC Championship Game. But both those games were played in Boone and were more even then the final scores indicate. This time, Louisiana gets App State at home and gets the job done. 8* Louisiana |
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10-06-19 | Broncos +7 v. Chargers | Top | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
9* Denver (4:05 ET): The Broncos' defense has yet to force a turnover, ranks near the bottom of the league in sacks and just loss DE Bradley Chubb to a season-ending ACL injury. Not the start defensive wizard Vic Fangio was looking for in his first head coaching gig in the league. Denver is 0-4 despite being competitive in all four games. While one of four 0-4 teams in the league right now, the Broncos are definitely better than the other three and better than their record. They get another chance at giving Fangio his first win this week as they visit the Chargers. This is a spot where we want to take the points as the Chargers have been hit even harder by injuries and aren't the same team they were a season ago. The Chargers are off a 30-10 win, but it came against Miami, so that doesn't hold much water. RB Melvin Gordon is set to return this week, but as alluded to above, the real story in LA is who WON'T be on the field for the Chargers. Already the team has had to place 10 players on IR, three of them starters. (The tight end position has been hit the hardest). In addition, there are four more starters that aren't 100% and could have to miss this game. Two are starting receivers, so Philip Rivers may not have anyone to throw to Sunday. On the defensive side of the ball, we know DE Melvin Ingram is out. Other than Miami, we just don't see this Chargers team being able to beat any opponent by any kind of margin right now. The Broncos are not only 0-4 SU, but they've lost eight straight going back to last season. But under Fangio, they've at least been competitive. Two of the losses have come by two points, including last week's to Jacksonville, which was decided on a last second field goal. It was the 2nd time this year Denver lost on the final play. They've actually gained the same number of total yards as their four opponents. Honestly, we give them a great shot at the outright upset here. The road team did win both meetings last season. We "buy low" on a Broncos team that is "due" for some good luck. 9* Denver |
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10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -116 | 26 h 48 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Bills may very well end up being a vastly improved team, at least record-wise, by season's end. But one side of the ball can only carry you so far. For the Bills, that one side of the ball is a defense that just held the Patriots to 16 points (no TD's after 1st quarter) and 224 total yards. But offense is a real concern here w/ second year QB Josh Allen unlikely to play this week. His replacement is Matt Barkley and if that sounds bad, it should look even worse. As much as the drafting of Allen was questioned, the dropoff to Barkley is pretty severe. The Bills didn't score after Allen left last week's game w/ a concussion. Even if Allen were to play this week, there's the question of whether or not he's 100% and the truth of the matter is we still aren't sold on him as he had three interceptions last week and a completion percentage below 50%. Now lets talk about Tennessee. While we faded them in Week 3 (lost outright in Jacksonville), we were all aboard their train last week as they went into Atlanta and upset the Falcons 24-10. They dominated from the outset as well w/ Marcus Mariota throwing three 1st Half TD passes. It didn't even matter that they didn't score a single point after halftime. That was Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense they held in check too. Stopping this Bills offense - whether it's Allen or Barkley at the helm - will be much easier. This Titans defense is #4 in the league in scoring (one spot higher than the Bills) and will be up against a Bills offense averaging only 19.0 PPG. The strength of the Bills offense is running the ball, but the problem w/ that is the Titans have done a great job at stopping the run the L2 wks, allowing just 88 and 58 yards to the Jags and Falcons respectively. This is an addition to having a pass defense whose numbers looked great before Ryan attempted 53 passes against them last week. Another huge edge for the Titans here is that they take very good care of the football (just one turnover). Buffalo, on the other hand, already has two games w/ four TO's. No matter who the Bills QB is here, we have the Titans winning this game by at least a touchdown. Another key is the Titans offensive line will be bolstered by the return of Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games. 10* Tennessee |
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10-06-19 | Jets +15.5 v. Eagles | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With a 30-14 loss to the Patriots two weeks ago, Jets HC Adam Gase has now lost nearly one-third of the games in his coaching career (17 of 52) by at least two touchdowns. His current team is 0-3, certainly not the start that they - or I - had imagined. The Jets were on my "most improved" list for 2019, but after blowing a 16-0 lead against Buffalo in Week 1, that quickly went out the window. QB health has been a major issue here as Sam Darnold has missed the L2 games w/ mono. His backup, Trevor Siemian, is out for the year w/ a broken ankle. That left Luke Falk, a former practice squad player, to start the third game. While it was a 16-point loss to New England, the Jets did cover the number (were +23) despite not even scoring an offensive touchdown (scored one on defense & special teams). If this all sounds rough to you, it is. But it's not dire. The Jets had their bye last week. While having a bye week that early in the season isn't always ideal, it probably was for the Jets as it allowed Falk to get some much needed reps for the Week 5 opponent, Philadelphia. There's no sugarcoating how bad the Jets offense looked against the Patriots. But that was to be expected going against one of the top defenses in the league, with a third string QB, on a short week no less (Jets had just played on MNF). Now, with added rest, they are getting to face an Eagles defense that is a little suspect. While the Eagles did win last Thursday (we had 'em), upsetting the Packers in Green Bay, they did give up 6.6 yards per play. In fact, the Eagles were outagined by almost a full yard per play in that outright win last Thursday. It was a much needed win (why we backed them plus the points!) after starting 1-2 w/ a home loss to the Lions. But they did get outgained by over 150 yards. Green Bay had a chance to tie late, but Aaron Rodgers was picked off in the end zone. That was one of two critical Packers' turnovers in the game, the first leading to an easy score by the Eagles (got the ball in the red zone). I'm not saying that the Jets are gonna win this game, but they most likely won't. But it's a big spread for a desperate team coming off a bye. Winless teams playing on the road, off a bye, are on a 17-7 ATS run. We'd have the spread closer to 10 points. While Falk only threw for 98 yards in his debut, Carson Wentz threw for only 160 last week. Wentz is just 1-7 ATS his L8 home games. Take the points. 10* NY Jets |
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10-06-19 | Bucs +3 v. Saints | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Oddsmakers clearly overadjusted for the Drew Brees injury as the Saints are 2-0 (SU and ATS) as underdogs with Teddy Bridgewater as the starting QB. Maybe we shouldn't be surprised. Bridgewater is now 25-7 ATS as a starter, the best such mark for any QB w/ at least 15 career starts. But now he's a favorite for the first time this year. He and the Saints will be facing a Bucs team that is not only vastly improved on BOTH sides of the ball, but has also already pulled two outright upsets on the road. The Bucs could easily be 3-1 had it not been for blowing a DD lead against the Giants two weeks ago. They could be 4-0 had it not been a slew of turnovers in the opener vs. SF. Take the points. While the Saints are 2-0 SU/ATS with Bridgewater starting, by no means have they been dominant. In fact, they were outgained 514-265 by Seattle, needing multiple non-offensive TD's (1 punt return, 1 fumble return) to win 33-27. We had them as our *10* Game of the Month last week as a rare home dog against the undefeated Cowboys. They won that game 12-10 despite not scoring a single TD. So with Bridgewater starting, the Saints have managed just three offensive TD's in two games, one of which started inside the opponent's 30-yard line. Bridgewater has failed to throw for even 200 yards in either game. Anything close to a similar offensive effort will obviously not get it done as a favorite. The Bucs clearly didn't have any offensive issues last week as they hung 55 in a shocking upset of the Rams. QB Jameis Winston has gone over 350 yards passing in B2B games. While the numbers from the last five quarters may indicate something different, the defense has also gotten better w/ Todd Bowles as the coordinator. They've been particularly effective at stopping the run where they allow just 59 yards per game on 2.9 yards per carry. That's #1 in the league! The underdog has won all four Tampa Bay games this year and we'll look for that trend to continue. They won here in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome last season. 8* Tampa Bay |
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10-05-19 | Washington v. Stanford +16.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 54 h 50 m | Show |
10* Stanford (10:30 ET): Things may not be looking so hot down on "The Farm" right now, but we like the number we're getting w/ the Cardinal this week in a "Pac 12 After Dark" special vs. Washington. Despite starting their backup QB last week, Stanford scored a season-high 31 pts last week. Granted, it was against Oregon State, but I'll still call it an "encouraging" sign as it came on the road. Davis Mills will get the nod under center again this week (as K.J. Costello is still injured), but this time it's at home. Washington is the better team, but Stanford is still a "tough out" here in Palo Alto, regardless of what happened two weeks ago vs. Oregon. Also note that this number is about a full TD higher than the Oregon game, even though we have the Ducks rated higher than the Huskies. Take the points. Despite losing to Oregon 21-6, the Stanford defense allowed just 320 total yds in that contest. They've allowed an average of just 14 points and 265 yards at home so far w/ both games coming against P5 opposition. It's been a tough schedule thus far for Stanford w/ three games coming against teams we have ranked in the Top 25 (UCF, USC, Oregon). They did jump out to a 21-0 lead LW vs. Oregon State before needing a last second FG for the 31-28 win. The Cardinal are 45-9 SU at home under HC David Shaw and have had UW's number through the years, taking 10 of the last 14 meetings including the L5 at home - by an average of 18.4 PPG. Those were some better Stanford teams in that mix, but it's also very rare to get a number like this on them at home under Shaw. This will be the second week in a row Washington gets to face a backup QB as LW they were up against USC's third-stringer and won by two touchdowns (28-14). That was at home, however, and total yardage was basically dead even. Shaw is a perfect 4-0 ATS as a home dog at Stanford including an upset of the Huskies two years ago. There has been only one time under Shaw that Stanford has gotten more points than it has here and that was against Oregon in 2012 when they pulled an outright upset. Before that, the last time they were a home dog of 15 pts or more was the infamous upset of USC under Jim Harbaugh (2007). This is a straight value play as our numbers indicate the spread should be 9.5. Look for the Cardinal defense to keep them in this one. 10* Stanford |
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10-05-19 | Texas -10 v. West Virginia | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
8* Texas (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a good spot for the 11th ranked Longhorns as they are just 2-7 ATS their L9 tries as a conference favorite and have Oklahoma on deck (a spot in which they've failed to cover six of the last seven years). However, they are coming off a bye and facing a team that is nowhere near as good as its 3-1 SU record would seem to indicate. West Virginia has struggled to beat the likes of James Madison and Kansas, needing late scores and turnovers to get by both. And even though they did pull an upset over NC State, the Mountaineers are still just 2-8 SU, 3-6-1 ATS in the underdog role the L3 seasons. We feel Texas should be immune to the RRR lookahead this year and have its way w/ a subpar WVU team. Lay the points. Homefield advantage hasn't mattered the last three times these teams have met. The road team has won all three, including WVU 42-41 in Austin last season. The fact that the revenge angle is in play here is yet another reason to override Texas' history in this situation. We're also willing to look past the injuries in the Longhorns' secondary due to the fact WVU is last in the Big 12 in offense and has really struggled to get the ball down the field. On the flip side, Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has looked great so far. He has 15 TD passes and just one interception while throwing for 309 YPG. The Longhorns have scored at least 36 points in every game and gone over 500 yards in each of the last three. West Virginia is a 3-1 team in name only as we have them rated as the second worst team in the Big 12. Last week, they were a little lucky to beat the worst team in the conference (Kansas) as they were outgained, but wound up +2 in turnovers. Even more damning is that in the season opener, they were outgained by FCS James Madison (WVU didn't even gain 300 yards!) and were tied going into the 4Q (ended up +3 in TO's). Yes, there was the upset of 44-27 of NC State here in Morgantown two weeks ago. But the week before that, the Mountaineers got slaughtered 38-7 by a Missouri team we have rated slightly below Texas in our own power rankings. The Longhorns are simply the much better team here and should win big. 8* Texas |
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10-05-19 | Bowling Green v. Notre Dame -45.5 | Top | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): This may sound crazy (not to mention uncharacteristic!), but we're going to lay what is easily the biggest number on the board Saturday w/ Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish treated us well last week, finishing strong to get the cover as DD chalk against Virginia in what was a Top 25 matchup. But if you read our analysis, you know we "scoffed" at the notion of the Cavaliers being a Top 25 team. Things played out the way we expected as the Irish ended up winning 35-20 thanks to a superb defensive effort in the second half (shut UVA out). While we may not regard Virginia as being a Top 25 team, they're still certainly a competent opponent. The same cannot be said for this week's Notre Dame opponent, Bowling Green, who is one of the worst teams in the entire country right now. We learned our lesson w/ BG early as we made the mistake of taking them in Week 2 against Kansas State. They were getting 24.5 points in that contest, but that hardly mattered as they ended up losing 52-0. It's been all downhill since w/ last week's 62-20 loss to Kent State marking a new low for the program. The Falcons defense permitted 375 yards - both rushing and passing - for a total of 750 allowed. This was against a team that is a 35-point underdog this week (granted, against Wisconsin) and was coming off a 39-point loss. We've still got Kent State rated as one of the bottom 20 teams in the country, but that might as well be the top 10 compared to Bowling Green, who is in our bottom three. This is about as one-sided a matchup as you'll see all season. Notre Dame's defense forced five turnovers and allowed just four rushing yards last week against Virginia. Unless they simply don't care this week, it is difficult to see how Bowling Green is going to move the ball in this game. Obviously, Notre Dame still needs to score a lot of points to cover though. But remember they dropped 66 in a win over New Mexico here in South Bend back in Week 2. They can easily score a similar number here, given BG just allowed 62 points and 750 total yards to a bad MAC team last week. Notre Dame just gone done facing two very good defenses - Georgia and Virginia - so expect QB Ian Book to have a performance similar to that New Mexico game where he threw for 360 yards and five touchdowns. Yes, this spread is not high enough! 10* Notre Dame |
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10-05-19 | Maryland -13 v. Rutgers | Top | 48-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Maryland (12:00 ET): The bloom has definitely fallen off the rose in College Park where just three weeks ago Maryland fans believed their team was set to compete w/ the heavyweights of the Big 10. But two bad losses later and the Terrapins are scrambling. First they were upset on the road by Temple, losing 20-17 as 5.5-point chalk. Then came last Friday's embarrassment at the hands of Penn State, 59-0, in a home game where seating was expanded to accommodate what was a turnaway crowd. It's definitely now hard to rectify what we've seen in the last two games compared to the first two, but fortunately for Maryland they are drawing the perfect opponent for a "get well" game this week, that being Rutgers, whose issues run far deeper. Lay the points. Rutgers has played two Big 10 games so far and been outscored 82-0! Last week's 52-0 loss at the hands of Michigan cost both HC Chris Ash and OC John McNulty their jobs. It's tough to defend Ash as he won just eight games in three-plus seasons here and was 3-26 in conference play (all three wins coming in 2017). But the decision to fire him seemed to be hastily made and certainly puts interim Nunzio Campanile in a really tough spot. Campanile not only is taking over the head coaching job, but the play calling as well. This is someone who was a high school coach just 18 months ago and a tight ends coach as recently as last week! Not only have the Scarlet Knights been shutout in both Big 10 games so far, they've gained just 277 yards TOTAL! Tough spot. On paper, laying double digits on the road w/ a team that just lost 59-0 doesn't read well. But this spot seems tailor-made for a Maryland blowout. Beating up on bad teams is what's going to get them bowl eligible and you have to remember they were ranked in the Top 25 three weeks ago. They scored 142 points in wins over Howard and Syracuse, the latter we were on. Rutgers lost 17 games by 20+ points under Ash and don't figure to get much better anytime soon. After having the run game stifled last week, Maryland should be able to run wild in this game against a defense that is giving up nearly 200 rush yards per contest. Last year, the Terps beat Rutgers by 27. You wouldn't know it judging by the L2 games, but this year's squad is better under 1st year coach Mike Locksley. They'll be eager to rebound after being embarrassed on national TV last week while Rutgers is a program in shambles right now. 8* Maryland |