Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-31-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State -2.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (7:00 ET): Maryland is 19-2 SU and ranked #17 in the country. But, like many, I feel they have been one of the more fortunate teams in the country this year and are nowhere near as good as their record and ranking might seem to indicate. They are 8-0 as an underdog, not just against the spread, but straight up as well. So they've certainly beaten the oddsmakers' low expectations. But, eventually, regression will hit a team I do not believe to be even one of the top 40 in the nation. Yes, you read that correctly. Tonight, they're getting points at Ohio State and while that perfect record as a dog certainly has to give you pause, I'm fading the Terps in this one. While Maryland went to Minnesota on Saturday and pulled off its eighth outright upset of the year, Ohio State lost at home as a 1-pt dog to Iowa. It was the Buckeyes' second loss in the last three games and each of their previous four (before the Iowa loss) had been decided by six points or less. While OSU is only 3-6 SU in Big 10 play, they started 0-4 and have lost twice at home by two points or less. Their home record is 11-3 SU w/ visitors to Columbus averaging only 63.7 PPG. This is a revenge game too as the Bucks were swept by Maryland in LY's season series, including a close five-point loss here at home. Motivation should be especially high coming off the disappointing performance at Iowa City where they trailed by as many as 20 and let the Hawkeyes shoot 50 percent despite no Peter Jok. Not only is Maryland 8-0 SU/ATS as a dog, they've won all eight road/neutral site games as well. But this will be their fourth "true" roadie in the last five games overall and eventually that's going to catch up w/ you. It was a come from behind effort Saturday at Minnesota, a performance that is highly unlikely to be duplicated. The Terps scored 59 points in the second half and shot better than 50% for the game, including a preposterous 11 of 18 from three-point range. Maryland is a young team and what we've seen from them thus far is something I view as unsustainable. They profile as a team likely to be upset on the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Ohio State is 8-2 ATS after giving up 80+ points its last game. 10* Ohio State |
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01-30-17 | Georgia Southern v. Troy State -3.5 | Top | 76-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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01-30-17 | Nets +9 v. Heat | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): Just about any objective measure will tell you that the Nets are the worst team in basketball. That's okay though. Tonight, they are getting plenty of points against a bad team that is unaccustomed to the role of large favorite. Miami has shockingly won and covered seven straight games and as a result the market has taken notice. I think that it's important to note that only once have the Heat been favored during this win streak. Of course, it was against these Nets (by 2.5). They were fortunate that it was such a small number as they (Miami) won by only three, 109-106. That result only came about after a stunning 38-17 run to end the game. The Heat have not been favored by more than six points this season and this likely will be their high water mark as a favorite. Take the points. Brooklyn has just one win since December 26th. They have just two road wins all year. They did win on 1.20 at New Orleans by shockingly scoring 143 points. Since that win, they've been competitive in three of the last five games. Last time out was not one of them as they fell by 20 at Minnesota. But that was also the second game of a back to back (had played Cleveland the previous night). Again, they had the Heat right where they wanted them after three quarters last week. Interestingly, despite the woeful road record, the Nets actually average MORE points per game away from home (108.3). This play basically boils down to the fact that I think Miami is being severely overvalued. They've hardly dominated as four of the seven wins have been by six points or less. Prior to the streak commencing, I did feel as if the Heat were better than their record, but listen to the chatter now and it's as if people are now entertaining the notion that this might be a playoff team. That's not happening. A low-scoring, below .500 club is simply not a smart bet in this price range. The Heat have been favored only seven times all season and lost three of those games outright. 10* Brooklyn |
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01-30-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Coastal Carolina +6 | Top | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): We're going all Sun Belt with this three-game report as there are some real commonalities with the games. Here, we have Coastal Carolina hosting a revenge game against a TX-Arlington team that is playing on the road for a second time in three days. That's the dreaded spot we've been targeting the last couple days. The Mavericks did win Saturday, 83-67 as seven-point favorites over Appalachian State. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover. But I feel it will be tough for them to win/cover as a road fave for a second time in this short of a span. Coastal Carolina, a SBC newbie, still remembers what happened to them on New Year's Eve. Take the points. What happened to Coastal Carolina on NYE was a 90-69 beatdown from UT-Arlington. It was a game w/ a ton of three-point attempts (75 total!), but it was actually the Chanticleers inability to make two-point shots that hurt them. Of course, they didn't play any defense either. It's been a real "up and down" start to CC's first year in the Sun Belt as after the loss to UT Arlington, they immediately went on a four-game win streak. They've since dropped three in a row, including a two-point loss here at home to Texas State on Saturday. Their poorest offensive effort of the season was untimely considering they held the Bobcats to just 33.9% shooting. With Ga Southern losing Saturday, UT Arlington is now just one of three teams within a game of 1st place in the Sun Belt. It should be noted that the Mavericks actually trailed at the half Saturday, 32-24, before exploding for 59 second half points. They did not take their first lead of the game until there was 13:34 left. So the fact they ended up winning by 16 does not tell "the whole story." Both conference losses took place on the road, for the record (Texas State and Troy). I expect Coastal Carolina to be a lot better defensively here compared to the 1st meeting as they allow only 66.1 PPG at home for the season (opponents shooting only 38%). UT Arlington's average margin of victory as a road favorite is just 2.3 PPG. 8* Coastal Carolina |
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01-30-17 | Texas State v. Appalachian State -2 | Top | 68-55 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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01-29-17 | Illinois State v. Evansville +7 | Top | 69-59 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
10* Evansville (4:00 ET): Has it really been since January 1st? That's the last time Evansville won a game apparently. They beat Northern Iowa 70-58 that day as short 2.5-pt home favorites. Since then, it's been seven straight losses in MVC play for the Purple Aces. What has gone wrong? Well, averaging 61.2 PPG simply isn't going to get it done this time of year. Note that this season was always considered to be a rebuilding year, but I think even the biggest pessimist would not have forecast this. With little to play for the rest of the way, facing the Missouri Valley's top team at home, in a revenge spot no less, may be the last chance to fire the Purple Aces up. With the underdog 11-4 ATS the L15 H2H meetings, I'm taking the points here. Illinois State is one of the few remaining teams in the country w/o a conference loss. Of course, just yesterday, I targeted one such team (UNC Wilmington) and came away quite happy (they lost big, laying pts on the road). These two teams actually opened conference play against one another and it was ISU winning 62-50 in Normal. Evansville had an awful shooting night, making only 14 of 54 field goal attempts (25.9%!) including 2 of 12 from three-point range. That's still the fewest points scored by the Purple Aces in any game this season. Of note to me is the fact that Illinois State was a 7.5-point favorite for that contest. The line is essentially identical here for the rematch, despite the change in venue! Illinois State is in first place in the MVC, but they are not the best team in the league (Wichita State is). I tip my cap to the Redbirds for beating the Wheat Shockers two weeks ago (game was in Normal), but you can bet Greg Marshall will have his team ready for next weekend's big rematch. ISU stayed unbeaten in conference play w/ a narrow 71-66 win over Larry Bird's alma mater (Indiana State) on Wednesday. It was their 10th straight win, but it didn't come easy as they trailed at halftime (at home) and shot only 40.8% from the field. It's difficult to beat the same team twice in a season, let alone cover both times. The fact that Evansville allows only 61.7 PPG at home will keep them in this one. 10* Evansville |
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01-29-17 | Thunder v. Cavs -6.5 | Top | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (3:30 ET): It has been a miserable start to 2017 for the defending champs, who are a money burning 2-11 ATS this month. As a result, I think many will be surprised to find them laying this number to Oklahoma City. I won't be taking the "bait," however. Rather, I'm going to buy low on LeBron James and company as OKC is by no means what they once were when Kevin Durant was here. The Thunder roll into Cleveland on a three-game win streak, but they have a losing road record due to giving up an unsightly 108.2 PPG. That won't work against a Cavs team that's still among the most efficient in the league offensively. While Russell Westbrook considers to draw well-deserved praise for his individual play, the team's offensive efficiency is way down this year. Also, OKC will now be w/o Enes Kanter for the foreseeable future. Thursday night vs. Dallas, Kanter made the regrettable decision to punch a chair and ended up fracturing his forearm. His absence moving forward will drastically impact the team's rebounding, which rated among the best in the league. As alluded to earlier, this is not a great offensive team despite Westbrook putting together one of the great individual seasons in recent memory. Last season, they were right behind top ranked Golden State for the most efficient offense in the league. This year, they're down to #17! This, along with the poor defensive numbers on the road (see above), is not a good combination when facing Cleveland. LeBron did not hold back in his criticism of the Cavs' current roster construction. While they did recently add Kyle Korver, JR Smith is still out w/ an injury. Their own defense, or lack of it, remains a concern. But here at home, the team is still 20-5 SU and averaging an impressive 113.5 PPG. A 124-116 win over league-worst Brooklyn is no reason to throw a parade, but again, I view this as an opportunity to "buy low" on a team that's been a double digit favorite in four of its past five games. The Cavs swept the Thunder last season when Durant was still in the fold. Recently, OKC lost by 20+ to both the Clippers and Warriors on the road. 8* Cleveland |
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01-29-17 | Green Bay v. Detroit +5 | Top | 92-93 | Win | 100 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
8* Detroit (2:00 ET): At one point, Wisc GB was the lone remaining unbeaten in the Horizon League. The Phoenix began conference play 5-0 SU, but it was hardly the most daunting slate of games. Then they dropped B2B games at Valpo (blown out) and at home to Youngstown State (stunner!). They've seemingly "reversed course" over the past week though w/ wins over Cleveland State and more notably, Oakland. The Phoenix were eight-point underdogs for their visit to Oakland, which they ended up winning straight up by eight points. But this marks the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot where I love to fade teams, particularly if they're laying points on the road. This is a proverbial letdown spot for the road chalk. Detroit is certainly hoping for a bit of a letdown from the Phoenix because they've lost three straight, giving up 100+ pts twice in the process! Ironically though, they are off an overtime loss where the final score was only 73-69. That was Friday, here at home, versus WI-Milwaukee. The Titans were short-handed for that game as starter Chris Jenkins (leading rebounder) was out w/ a hip injury. He could return today. Also, Jenkins or no Jenkins, the Titans should have won Friday. But they were an absolutely atrocious 9 of 29 from the three throw line! Such a performance cannot possibly be repeated again this season. While it's certainly been a rough season thus far for the Titans, let's take into account the Jenkins' injury and the fact they've have to play five of their last seven on the road. Remember - this team also upset Oakland on the road - as 18.5-pt underdogs. Detroit's defensive numbers definitely gave me pause initially, but then again, Wisconsin GB is no defensive stalwart by any means. The Phoenix allow 76.6 PPG, a bad number when you're favored on the road. Unlike Detroit, this team has gotten to play the majority of its Horizon League games at home thus far. In only one of the previous four, against Youngstown State (worst team in the league), were they favored. It's important to note that the Phoenix could again be w/o starting point guard Trevor Anderson. 8* Detroit |
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01-28-17 | Kings v. Hornets -7 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): This is a really rough spot for visiting Sacramento. They blew a second half lead last night in Indiana and ended up losing in overtime. This will not only be the the second game of a B2B tonight, but their sixth consecutive road game as well. Likewise, host Charlotte is playing w/o rest and off a deflating loss. The Hornets fell to to dysfunctional Knicks on the road Friday night, 110-107, their third straight loss and fourth in a row where they failed to cover. But back at home, I expect massive improvement. Charlotte swept the season series last year, both of which were high scoring affairs. I look for the road-weary Kings to simply run out of gas here. Lay the points. The current three-game losing streak leaves the Hornets a game below .500 and a precarious seventh in the Eastern Conference. But in terms of point differential and efficiency rating (which are closely tied together), they are the fourth best team in the East. Getting outscored by eight points in the fourth quarter by the Knicks is certainly not a good look. But the other two losses during this streak came to red-hot Washington and Golden State (top team in the league). Going cold in the 4Q is what cost them last night in MSG. They've now lost all seven road games in January. But at home, they remain 15-9 SU for the year, averaging 105.6 points per game. Sacramento scored 64 points in the first half last night and found itself up 16 midway through the third quarter. That's when things began to unravel for them. They had no answer for the Pacers' Paul George, who scored 33 points and made 16 of 17 free throws. Indiana ended regulation on a 17-5 run to force an extra five minutes of play. It will be very challenging for the Kings to get over the fact they just lost a road game where they outshot the opponent 50% to 37.7%. They have won just twice in nine tries in the second game of back to back this year. I should also mention that Sacramento has played B2B overtime games as they won in Cleveland Wednesday night. They are now 0-4 SU coming off an OT game this season. Remember they are down a key man (Rudy Gay) for the rest of the season. 8* Charlotte |
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01-28-17 | NC-Wilmington v. William & Mary +6 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* William & Mary (4:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is still unbeaten in CAA play (20-2 SU overall) following Thursday's 87-76 win at James Madison. If one were to omit Gonzaga from the discussion, then there's probably a legit argument to be made that the Seahawks are the top mid-major in the country this season. But laying points on the road for the second time in three days can be tricky. Here they'll be taking on a William & Mary team that is not only unbeaten at home (averaging 91.5 PPG!), but will certainly be hungry for revenge after getting humiliated 16 days ago down in Wilmington, 101-77. It should be noted that W&M covered both meetings last season including an 18-point win here at home. Take the points. William & Mary is now 8-0 SU at home following Thursday's 82-58 blowout of a bad Delaware team. That win and cover actually snapped a five-game ATS losing skid. The Tribe shot almost 57% from the field in the win, including 11 of 23 from three-point range. They led by double digits most of the way. Looking back at that first meeting w/ UNCW, there are two things I expect to very different this go around. One is W&M leading scorer Daniel Dixon is highly unlikely to be held to just 10 pts again. That marked a season-low for Dixon, who averages 19.0 PPG in conference play. Also, the William & Mary defense is generally outstanding at home. They let UNCW shoot 55.7% from the floor in the first meeting. Look for that number to come way down here. UNCW has dominated the CAA the L2 seasons, but they haven't had much luck here in Harrisonburg. Their last win here came back in 2012 and overall they've dropped seven of nine to the Tribe. Last year's visit was a "real bitter pill to swallow" as they allowed 23 straight points in the second half to go from 12 up to an eventual 18-point loss. I already mentioned that W&M is averaging an outstanding 91.5 PPG here at home. Well, they're allowing only 66.5 on 40% shooting as well. UNCW couldn't miss in the first meeting, but the fact they allow 47% shooting on the road while W&M shoots 53.6% at home will lead to a dramatic reversal of fortune tonight. 10* William & Mary |
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01-28-17 | Eastern Michigan -4 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 74-57 | Win | 100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (3:30 ET): This game will carry special importance for Eastern Michigan. Not only are the Eagles coming off B2B losses, the last one coming as seven-point home faves Tues vs. Ball State, but they have not won a game here in Oxford in a LONG time. My records (go back to '97) show it's been 11 straight losses on the road to MAC rival Miami. But despite what we've seen recently, this year's Eagles team is clearly superior to the RedHawks. EMU is still tied for the lead in the MAC West, having gone 4-3 SU in conference play. Meanwhile, Miami has really struggled. They'd lost five in a row before sneaking by Buffalo (by a single point) Tuesday. I'll lay the points here as when the teams met LY in Ypsilanti, the Eagles prevailed by 25. A lack of rebounding really hurt Eastern Michigan Tuesday night in Muncie as they were -8 on the glass against Ball State and lost 88-80. Allowing 12 offensive rebounds was a real killer and I will concede rebounding is a weak spot for this team. But that's not as big of a concern when they're making shots. They come in averaging 81.0 PPG, which is tied for 36th in the country. They scored 50 in the second half alone Tuesday. After shooting below 40% each of the L2 games, I expect massive improvement tonight. Last Friday's loss at Akron (still unbeaten in conference) was certainly excusable. This is a really important game for the Eagles to win so they can at least stay tied for the division lead. As a road favorite, they are 2-0 this season, winning by an average margin of 27 points per game. Miami actually trailed Buffalo by as many as eight points Tuesday before rallying for the eight-point win. Typically not a great defensive team, the RedHawks held the Bulls to just 40% shooting for the game. Three of their previous five opponents shot at least 54% from the field. That's bad news against a potent offense like the one Eastern Michigan brings to town. By the way, EMU is holding conference opponents below 40% shooting from the floor so far this season! I feel they're ready to snap this long losing streak in Oxford, not to mention bounce back from a tough week overall. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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01-27-17 | Rockets -8 v. 76ers | Top | 123-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a firm believer in regression to the mean and in the case of these two teams, that's what we should be seeing tonight. The Sixers, while certainly improved from the doldrums of the last few years, have been playing above their heads of late. They just won at Milwaukee two nights ago (were 11-pt dogs) and are 8-2 STRAIGHT UP the L10 games, making this their best stretch of basketball in some time. Houston, on the other hand, has lost two in a row as favorites. I played against them Monday in Milwaukee and then they again failed to get the job done in Boston. But this remains one of the best teams in the league right now. It may seem like a lot of points to lay given Philly's recent play, but do it. Earlier this season, Houston beat Philadelphia 115-88 as 11-pt home favorites. In terms of offense, this remains a major mismatch. The Rockets are third in the league in offensive efficiency while the Sixers are 30th (by a comfortable margin). With the increase in scoring we've seen this season, there just aren't many teams still scoring below 100 PPG, but you can count Philly among them. Meanwhile, Houston averages the second most points per game in the league (114.3), trailing only Golden State. I just don't see how the 76ers will be able to keep pace here, especially w/o Joel Embiid. Defensively, it's not as if they are that superior to the Rockets where it can negate the massive edge Houston has offensively. Houston has lost three of four due to the fact they've allowed 120+ in all three losses. That won't be an issue here, trust me. Philly is off two of its best offensive showings of the year and shot 53.3% vs. Milwaukee. But I can't see them sustaining that. The Rockets are also 16-6 ATS this season when faced w/ a team with a losing record. 8* Houston |
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01-27-17 | Brown v. Yale -10 | Top | 75-85 | Push | 0 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* Yale (8:00 ET): These Ivy League schools just met last Friday w/ Yale winning 75-74. They were 6.5-pt road favorites in the contest, so even w/ the non-cover, it does appear there's value here with the Bulldogs back in Connecticut. Brown was able to keep pace last week due to the three-pointer (they made 12 compared to just five for Yale), but on the road, the Bears' shooting from long distance predictably dips. Furthermore, when they are the road team, Brown is allowing opponents to shoot a ghastly 53.2% from the floor. Lay the points Tonight marks Yale's first home game in Ivy League play. They won two of three on the road so far, only losing to conference favorite Princeton. The Bulldogs won all six non-conference home games by an average of 22.1 points per game. Yes, that number is somewhat skewed due to a 102-46 win over Mitchell College on January 7th, but the last four wins have all come by double digit margins. They also have beaten Brown five straight times overall. They are 15-4 ATS L19 Friday games and 14-4 ATS when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Brown is just 2-7 SU away from home this year due in large part to giving up over 80 PPG. They did win at Penn on 1.14, but also lost by 31 at Princeton the previous night. Yake has actually won 20 in a row at home (nation's 5th longest streak!), so this is a tough place to come in and win. Yes, Brown led by 12 at the half last Friday, but that was at home and I do not anticipate any kind of similar deficit taking place here. Yale is not only the Ivy League leaders in assists and rebounds per game, they are the top shooting team as well. They also commit the fewest fouls per game in the entire country! That's huge because Brown is the top FT shooting team in the league. Take away that part of the Bears' game and it should be a long night here. 10* Yale |
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01-27-17 | Kings v. Pacers -4 | Top | 111-115 | Push | 0 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): This is the second night of a back to back for the Pacers, who won last night in Minnesota. Paul George led the way w/ 32 points and the team shot 51.9% from the floor (55% from three-point range!) in a 109-103 final. They now are a game over .500 and sixth in the Eastern Conference (sad?). For Sacramento, this is game #5 of what will eventually be an eight-game trip. They'll be in Charlotte tomorrow night. It's been back to back upsets pulled by the Kings, the last one coming in overtime, as 11-pt underdogs in Cleveland. It's difficult not to imagine there won't be some regression here, so I'll lay the short number w/ the Pacers, who are 16-6 SU at home. Now I know this scenario hasn't been the most ideal for Indiana. They are 1-7 - both SU and ATS - in the second game of a back to back this season. They are also just 1-6 ATS (2-5 SU) coming off a SU win as a dog. But it's key to point out that five of the losses when unrested came on the road, four of them in the second of B2B road games. Here at home, they've been a bit sharper due to averaging 106.9 PPG overall. They are 13-2 SU when favored here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. They just beat the Kings less than 10 days ago (in Sacramento, obviously) by a score of 106-100 as two-point dogs. I was shocked to learn that the Kings had swept the previous two season series. I have zero issue calling for a reversal of that trend tonight. Indiana actually trailed by as many as 19 in their win at Sacramento on 1.18. Suffice to say, they shouldn't have to overcome any such deficit here tonight. While credit should be given for winning at both Detroit and especially Cleveland, all is not well w/ the Kings. It just seems as if Boogie Cousins (despite clearly being the best player here) and the organization will never get on the same page. The key here could lie on the defensive end as Indiana holds visiting teams to just 42.8% shooting here at home while Sacramento has allowed 47.4% its L5 games. Prior to winning its last two games, Sacramento had won just twice in its previous 12 games. 10* Indiana |
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01-26-17 | Mavs +9.5 v. Thunder | Top | 98-109 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:05 ET): Both the Mavs and Thunder won last night, the former at home and the latter on the road. They'll be switching jerseys tonight as OKC plays host. This is the first meeting between the teams since LY's playoffs when the Thunder eliminated the Mavs in five games. In fact, OKC really owned Dallas last year, taking eight of nine overall matchups. Sure, it's pretty clear that the Mavs won't be back in the playoffs this year (would be just 2nd time missing them this century), but since that dreadful 5-18 SU start, they've actually played .500 ball. They have covered six of their last seven games, the lone non-cover being a four-point loss. For Oklahoma City, this is their first game back home after a LONG road trip. The Mavs have been a bit short-handed during their recent win streak, which makes the results all the more impressive. Andrew Bogut did return to the lineup Wednesday. But Deron Williams (toe), Dirk Nowitzki (rest) and Wesley Matthews (hip) could all be MIA. But two of those three didn't play last night either when they comfortably defeated the Knicks. While Carmelo Anthony went for 30 pts against them, he was shut out in the fourth quarter. Harrison Barnes (23 pts) and Seth Curry (20) led the way for Dallas, who was able to win comfortably despite being outrebounded and not shooting the ball particularly well. Curry is shooting better than 50% from three-point range the L7 games and averaging 14.4 PPG. After this game, Oklahoma City will be back on the road for games at Cleveland and San Antonio. Might they be looking ahead to those? They went just 3-3 SU on the recently completed trip w/ all three losses coming by double digits. Led by yet another triple double from Russell Westbrook, the Thunder won in New Orleans last night thanks to a big first half. But they are just 2-6 SU in the second game of a back to back. Granted, Dallas is 0-8 SU, but OKC is the one laying points here. 8* Dallas |
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01-26-17 | SE Missouri State v. Murray State -8.5 | Top | 75-74 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
8* Murray State (8:00 ET): This may seem like a bit of an "odd" game to choose, but after suffering an outright loss at Austin Peay on Saturday, I expect Murray State to bounce back in a major way tonight at home against SE Missouri State. Thus far, the Racers have gotten to play only two OVC games at home. Both were wins, against Tennessee State and Eastern Kentucky. They've also won three of five on the conference road w/ both losses coming by four points or less. Meanwhile, SE Missouri State was just able to take care of some advantageous scheduling as they drew the two weakest teams in the OVC and beat both at home. Lay the points. It was an overtime loss for Murray State on Saturday to Austin Peay. Nevertheless, they still lead the West Division in the OVC. Going into Austin Peay, the Racers had won three in a row. They led at the half. Here at home, the team averages 86.5 PPG and is 7-1 SU. They destroyed SE Missouri State here last season, winning by 27 points. SE Missouri State has been a disaster away from home, going just 1-11 straight up. All but two of those losses were in "true" road games. They are being outscored by 9.4 PPG in them. At no point this season have the Indians won three straight games. Like I said earlier, they just got to host the two worst teams in the OVC (SIU Edwardsville and E Illinois). At one point in December, this team lost seven in a row, including a home game to Chicago State. 8* Murray State |
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01-26-17 | NC-Wilmington v. James Madison +10 | Top | 87-76 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is one of only a handful of teams still w/o a conference loss. In what is a REALLY down year for "mid majors," the Seahawks are making a case that they could be the best in the nation. They're 19-2 SU w/ the losses coming at Clemson and Middle Tennessee (the other top mid major). They've gone a perfect 8-0 so far against the rest of the Colonial, winning by an average margin of 13 PPG. But I believe tonight to be a tricky spot as they're laying double digits on the road. It's a virtual certainty that they'll be getting James Madison's best shot here as the Dukes will be happy to be back home following consecutive road losses. Take the points. While James Madison has dropped four of its last five, two of those losses were by two points or less. Since the start of CAA play, the Duke have gone 3-1 SU at home. The one loss was by two points against College of Charleston, who is the second best team in the conference. Over the last week, they've gone 0 for 2 on the road w/ a one-point loss at William & Mary and then a second loss to Charleston, this time by 13. But despite falling by double digits, the game was actually pretty even. There were six ties and 10 lead changes, but a 35-18 edge in FT attempts for Charleston largely determined the final score. It was also a tough spot for JMU as Charleston was coming off its first CAA loss, to UNC Wilmington no less. UNC Wilmington won its game by 13 on Saturday, but did not cover as huge 18-pt favorites at Drexel. Again, that was another game that was close at the half, but the home team was able to pull away late (even though they were just 9 of 34 from three-point range). Clearly, we've reached a point where the lines are inflated on this team in conference play. The Seahawks have scored at least 84 in five of their past six games, but here I look for them to struggle offensively as JMU is giving up just 66.8 PPG. Also, this is a big revenge spot for JMU as they are 0-4 SU/ATS the L2 seasons against UNCW. 10* James Madison |
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01-26-17 | Hofstra v. Drexel +4 | Top | 80-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
8* Drexel (7:00 ET): Drexel is not having a good season at all as they have just one conference win against six losses. Tonight, they host CAA rival Hofstra in a big revenge spot. Hofstra has won all five H2H meetings between the schools the last two seasons, including a 3-0 sweep in 2016. But it's not as if the Pride are having themselves a memorable campaign here in 2017 either. They are just 2-6 in conference play, one of those victories coming Saturday at home against Northeastern. Both league wins have been by five points or less. The idea of this team laying points on the road seems fishy to me. Lay the points. With a defense giving up an average of 81.6 points per game on the road, Hofstra hardly seems like an ideal candidate to be laying points. They were favored by eight over Delaware on the road in one of their two CAA wins. But they won that game by only two points. In fact, their two wins as road faves both came by two points as they beat Columbia 88-86 back on November 29th. The only other time they were a road fave was early in the year, at Manhattan, and they lost that game outright. Interestingly, they haven't won any games this year as an underdog (0-6). Though it was called an "upset" by some, they were actually slight favorites (-1.5) vs. Northeastern on Saturday. The Pride shot better than 54% for the game there and converted a 3-point play w/ just 17 seconds to go for the win. I just don't see Hofstra making it two in a row here. Note that Drexel ran into UNC Wilmington (see other writeup) on Saturday and played them tough for a half as they were down only four at the break. Having played the best team in the CAA twice, Drexel has clearly had the more challenging conference schedule to this point. Hofstra has lost its last three CAA road games. They are just 8-19 ATS off a conference win the L3 seasons. 8* Drexel |
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01-25-17 | UC Riverside v. Hawaii -6 | Top | 70-64 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
10* Hawaii (11:59 ET): As you might expect, Hawaii is far more competitive out on the island as they're 8-6 SU here. That may not sound awe-inspiring (and it isn't), but it's also a "far cry" from what we've seen from this team on the mainland thus far, in an albeit small sample size. In four games away from home (two "true" road, two neutral), they're 0-4 SU/ATS, losing by double digit margin. Thankfully, the Warriors play at home tonight against UC Riverside, a team that is 1-9 SU in "true" road games. That one win came in their last one, last Thursday's outright triumph (were +7.5) at CS-Fullerton. They followed that win up on Saturday by beating undermanned UCSB 65-55 at home to improve to 5-0 ATS in Big West play. But I say that run comes to an end here. Lay the points. Hawaii did lose here at home Saturday, 76-70 to Cal Davis as 2.5-pt chalk. It was a close game throughout w/ the game essentially decided at the FT line late. I'm always surprised when a road team can get to the free throw with great regularity than their host, but UC Davis did it with a shocking 37 attempts there. The loss snapped Hawaii's two game win streak as they'd beaten both Long Beach State and Cal State Northridge previously. The last time they lost a game outright as home chalk, they responded w/ a 20-pt win their next time out. This was back on November 27th against Arkansas Pine Bluff. UC Riverside is not strong defensively as they give up 77 PPG on the road. Therefore, it was pretty shocking to see them hold their last opponent to just 30% shooting for the game, even if it was at home. But keep in mind that opponent, UCSB, is 331st in the country in scoring and currently w/o its second leading scorer. Prior to winning the L3 games, the first two as underdogs, the Highlanders had just three wins total in the first 14 games. They'd lost 9 of their last 10. The road team won both matchups between these Big West rivals last year, including the Highlanders pulling an upset as 14-pt dogs on the road. That won't happen again though as Hawaii should shoot a lot better this time around. They are 10-3 ATS off a conference loss, by the way. 10* Hawaii |
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01-25-17 | Lakers +9.5 v. Blazers | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): A rare play on the Lakers by me as this is way too many points for Portland to be laying, period. It is the second straight road game for LA and in the last one, they were dealt the worst loss in franchise history, losing to Dallas by 49 points. But you may be surprised to hear that even though the Lakers have now dropped six of their last seven games overall, Portland is only four up on them in the standings. This is a tricky spot for the Blazers too as they return home from a four-game East Coast trip that ended w/ an upset of Boston as eight-point dogs. But before that they'd lost four in a row - both SU and ATS. Take the points here. This is a matchup of two very poor defensive teams. The Lakers are in fact the worst in the league at the end of the floor, at least in terms of efficiency. But Portland isn't far ahead (27th) and actually allows the same number of points per game (110.5). So it's somewhat of an ideal matchup for the underdog. Also, if the players aren't motivated by what happened to them Sunday, then I don't know what to say. They shot just 38.4% against Dallas in a game where HC Luke Walton said "We didn't show up to play. . "It's embarrassing for us as a team, an organization, for our fans. The effort wasn't there. I love our group of guys. I know we're going to bring it the next game. That's not who we are, but it's frustrating what happened." Portland needed OT to upend Boston on Saturday. Perhaps the time off alleviates some of the issue w/ returning home after a long-trip. But the team has covered as a favorite only four times over its L20 games. Granted, two of those were against the Lakers, but the spread was never this high. In fact, it was only -6.5 the last time they met in the Moda Center, which was three weeks ago. The teams also met on 1.10 in LA w/ the Blazers prevailing 108-87. So this a big time revenge spot for the Lakers too as they've actually now lost 10 straight to the Blazers. The number of contributions Portland got in its last game probably won't be present again here tonight. The second worst team in the league ATS laying its biggest number of the year is prime fade material. 10* LA Lakers |
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01-25-17 | 76ers v. Bucks -11 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): I went w/ the Bucks their last time out and they responded by delivering an outright victory here at home against the Rockets. That was a much needed result for this team, which had previously dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. It was also a revenge spot as one of those five straight losses had come in Houston. Given that the number for the road loss was +6.5 and the Bucks then found themselves getting 4.5 for the rematch, my thinking is that it was a tremendous value. The same rationale applies here for yet another revenge spot against Philadelphia. Last week in Philly, the Bucks lost outright (as 8.5-pt chalk). While an adjustment is necessary after that result, the fact we now don't have to lay much more in Milwaukee seems like a bargain to me. Lay the points. In that 113-104 win over the Bucks last week, the 76ers had eight player score in double figures. Chief among them was Joel Embiid, who led the way w/ 22. But Embiid will be unavailable here in this, the second game of a back to back for the team. Note that the Sixers are just 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS in the 2nd game of a B2B this season. They've won only 8 of 49 such games the L3 seasons. Embiid did not play last night either, but somehow the team still found a way to overcome a 19-point deficit to beat the Clippers, who are of course very short-handed themselves. Nerles Noel made his 1st start last year and performed quite admirably. But can he do it again. Remember that the Sixers still rank dead last in the league in offensive efficiency, so I wouldn't expect a repeat of last night's 121-point performance nor do I envision them making 14 three-pointers again like they did LW in Milwaukee. The Bucks are off a strong offensive showing themselves as they turned in a season-best 58.8 FG% vs. Houston. Their 127 points scored were also the most in any game this season. However, the difference between them and Philly is that the Bucks lead the Eastern Conference in overall FG% (47.4), trailing only the Warriors and Spurs league-wide. Led by the "Greek Freak," Giannis Antetoukounmpo, the Bucks are still a team I'm quite high on. 8* Milwaukee |
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01-24-17 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -4.5 | Top | 65-70 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (9:00 ET): Two Big 12 teams coming off outright wins as dogs meet Tuesday night in Ames. Actually, Kansas State has won SU B2B times as dogs, turning the trick at both Oklahoma State and West Virginia's expense. The Wildcats are now a perfect 4-0 ATS taking points this season. But for whatever reason, Iowa State appears to have become a tad bit underrated, at least according to oddsmakers and public here. The Cyclones do not lose at home often and come off a 92-87 win at Oklahoma over the weekend. With some better luck in close games (four losses by 4 pts or less), they'd be high in the polls. As it stands right now, they're not even ranked. But I have them as a Top 20 team and will lay the points here. The four close losses that ISU has suffered came at the hands of Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Baylor and Kansas, all of whom are ranked in the Top 20. Three of them (Cincy the exception) checked in ranked in the Top 25 in the newest poll! So it's not as if the six losses are something the team should "hang its head" over. Saturday in Norman, it took two overtimes, but they were able to snap a two-game losing streak. The key was Deonte Burden scoring a career high 31 points. Also, they forced 25 turnovers and held OU to just 40% shooting. After falling behind early (were down 28-9!), ISU would go on to score 21 of the game's next 22 points and it was back and forth from there. Note that at home this year, the Cyclones are outscoring opponents by 23.4 PPG while holding them to a 36.1 FG%. Thus, this looks like a pretty short number to lay. Kansas State is off a big win over West Virginia (got me!), but that was in Manhattan. Their four "true" road games thus far are the four games that they've been underdogs and as mentioned before, they're 4-0 ATS including a pair of losses by two points or less (at Texas Tech and Kansas). So neither side has been that lucky in close game so far, though both did just win by less than five on Saturday. K State was able to beat WVU (1st win over ranked opponent TY) thanks to forcing turnovers (similar to ISU vs. Oklahoma) and also had to rally from a double digit first half deficit. Despite both teams profiling so similarly, I feel the home court edge is being underrated and ISU is the better team anyway. 10* Iowa State |
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01-24-17 | Celtics -1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 108-123 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:05 ET): Spirits should be high for this game as the Celtics and Wizards have developed a bit of a rivalry this season. The home team has won the previous two matchups and on January 11th in Boston, we saw tempers flare on both sides, leading to a minor scuffle at the end of the game. Washington is going so far as to wear "all black uniforms" Tuesday night and that's somewhat apropos given the team has been largely "in the black" betting wise here in 2017. An outright win last night in Charlotte marked the Wiz's sixth consecutive cover and they've now won 8 of 10 overall. Both losses, one to Boston and the other by one point at Detroit, came on the road. The team has won 13 consecutive home games dating back to December 8th. But this is also the second game of a back to back and Boston is a perfect 7-0 ATS this season as a road fave of three points or less. I'm on the visitor here. Often times, I make the argument that teams come in undervalued in the second game of a back to back. But that's not really the case here. Plus, the Wizards are just 2-7 straight up this year when playing w/o rest. Last night saw them shoot nearly 54% from the floor against Charlotte, a game they never trailed. They are now 12-2 SU this year when shooting 50% from the floor or better. But they shot just 42.9% in Boston two weeks ago, losing that one 117-108. While I've been impressed w/ the Wizards' recent ascension in the Eastern Conference standings (gone 18-8 SU L26 games overall), I still have my doubts as far as the defense goes (allow 105.7 PPG). This is not a top 10 team in either offensive or defensive efficiency, by the way. Boston enters this game off B2B losses (as favorites) to New York and Portland at home. Those are "bad" losses, so even w/o the "budding rivalry" here, you'd naturally expect the Celtics to be highly motivated coming into this one. You have to like that perfect record as a short road favorite and over the L5 games the offense is averaging more than 111 PPG. Similar to last night's play on Milwaukee where I stressed "buy low," I believe it's time to "sell high" on Washington. 8* Boston |
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01-23-17 | Rockets v. Bucks +5 | Top | 114-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): What has happened to the Bucks? One of the real early "pleasant surprises" in the Eastern Conference, they've all of a sudden dropped five in a row - both SU and ATS. Four of those losses, though, took place on the road. The last two were at Orlando and Miami, not a "good look" by any means, nor was the one home loss during the streak (to Philadelphia). But as a result of the recent swoon, we're now able to grab the Bucks at a very advantageous price. Tonight marks the 1st time since a December 20th game vs. Cleveland where they've been priced as a home dog. It's for good reason as they play a red hot Houston team that just beat them by 19 last week. But of particular interest to me is the fact this line is virtually the same as it was in Houston. Good value here. Take the points. Since X-Mas, the Rockets have lost only four games (won 12). But all four losses have taken place over the course of the L7 games. The last one came at home to Golden State on Friday. But they quickly bounced back by disposing of Memphis on the road, 119-95, the following night. The size of that win has also contributed to the overinflation of this line, in my opinion. Note that when these teams met down in Houston last week, the game didn't really get out of hand until late. The Bucks did not shoot well (39.8 percent overall), particularly from three-point range (7 of 28). I expect better offensive play tonight from a team averaging 108.8 PPG at home. Remember that Houston is not a stalwart defensively. They allow 109.2 PPG on the road. That game last week, plus Saturday at Memphis, mark two of the only four times that the Rockets have held an opponent below 100 pts in the new year. It's also the only two times an opponent has shot below 40% against them. Again, I look for the Bucks to improve somewhat dramatically on the offensive end here. HC Jason Kidd has been toying w/ his lineup to no avail of late, but now that this mini Jabari Parker controversy is over (benched one game for "leaking" team info), that should be settled. If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this would be a great time to "buy low" on the Bucks. 10* Milwaukee |
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01-23-17 | Quinnipiac v. Iona -9.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Iona (7:00 ET): While still one of the top teams in the MAAC (#2 behind Monmouth?), Iona hasn't been quite as dominant this year. Well, at least on the road. Last Tuesday, the Gaels snapped a four-game skid on the road by winning 82-67 at Manhattan. They followed that up by beating Fairfield Friday, 96-89, but failed to cover the nine-point spot at home. But tonight, for the first time, they actually get to play consecutive home games in conference play. The opponent is Quinnipiac (known for it's polling!) and this would be a revenge spot for Iona as they lost up in Hamden earlier this month, 97-91 (overtime) as seven-point favorites. Given what the line was there and the change in venue, this price looks to be a real bargain on Iona. Lay the points. In addition to being a university known for its polling, Quinnipiac has a basketball team that's been pulling it's fair share of upsets of late. Compared to other conferences, MAAC play started early this year. Quinnipiac lost its first league game, back on Dec 1, 91-72 at Monmouth. But since then, the Bobcats have roared to a 7-0-1 ATS mark in league play including three outright upsets. Two have come in the last 10 days, the last one being Friday at Canisius, a game where they allowed 58 second half pts and still won. They were fortunate to jump out to a 15-point halftime lead there and also shot 58.8% for the game (8 of 13 from 3-pt range!). I seriously doubt that they'll be able to come close to matching those numbers here on the road. It also helped that they had five days off before the Canisius game. Just to show what the market thought of this team coming into the year, Quinnipiac has been a dog in every MAAC game but one (were -1.5 vs. Manhattan). The first meeting between these teams saw Iona blow a second half lead and fall in OT. I took the Gaels their next time out as they responded w/ a 15-pt win at Manhattan. Friday vs. Fairfield, they never trailed (shot 56.9%) and won despite the opponent sinking 12 of 25 three-pointers. That game, like this one, was a revenge spot. It's important to note that Iona averages over 86 PPG at home where they've only lost one time. In all three MAAC home games, they've topped 90 points! I look for the Gaels to exact revenge yet again here against an opponent that is due to start regressing. 10* Iona |
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01-22-17 | Canucks +1.5 v. Blackhawks | 2-4 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
8* Puck Line Vancouver (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line Play only where I am taking the Canucks +1.5. Obviously, it shapes up as a big mismatch in Chicago, but that's where the extra goal and a half can come in handy. Furthermore, I don't think this is as big as a mismatch the oddsmakers seem to. Unlike in the East, there aren't a ton of great teams in the Western Conference. Minnesota is clearly the "best in the West," but there's a big dropoff after that. The Blackhawks are obviously contenders (as per usual), but the Canucks come in on an identical two-game win streak and have somehow climbed their way into playoff contention. I say Vancouver does no worse than a one-goal loss here. The Canucks L5 games have all been decided by one goal margins. The first three were all losses. But they've since beating Nashville (1-0) and Florida (2-1). The team is now 8-1-3 its L12 games, meaning only one time during that stretch (which goes back to Christmas!) have they been beaten by multiple goals. There have been only two times during that entire stretch that they've allowed more than two goals in a game. The lone loss by multiple goals came at Calgary on 1.7 when they playing on the road in the second game of a back to back. Goaltender Ryan Millers has been a lot better of late w/ a fabulous .944 save percentage his L4 starts. Chicago won its last game, 1-0. Before that, it was a 6-4 victory over terrible Colorado. Before that, it was B2B losses, one of them coming by a score of 6-0. Over their last 12 games, the Blackhawks have won by multiple goals only twice. They're giving up a relatively high number of shots as well (31.1 per game for the year). They were outshot 30-22 by Boston, yet still came away w/ the 1-0 victory thanks to Scott Darling. I would love it if Corey Crawford was called upon to start between the pipes tonight as he's been struggling (.876 save percentage L4 starts). Regardless of who is in goal for the 'Hawks, however, I like the added insurance w/ the Canucks here. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) |
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01-22-17 | Nuggets v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 108-111 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:05 ET): Denver rolled to a 123-98 victory over the Clippers last night. But that was at home and let us not forget how short-handed the Clips are right now (no Chris Paul, no Blake Griffin). So while the final margin of victory is still impressive, the opponent really was not. Tonight, without rest, the Nuggets now have to hit the road. They'll face a Minnesota team that while near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, is a lot better than its overall record. In fact, in terms of my own personal power rankings, there probably isn't a greater discrepancy between the ranking and WL record than what the T'wolves are currently sporting. Recently, they have shown signs of turning things around by covering six of their last seven. I'll lay the points here. Minny also just beat the Clippers in their last game, 104-101. The fact that game was played Thursday gives a big advantage to them here, especially being at home. The T'wolves are off three straight road games here, but have won three straight at home, including impressive victories over both Houston and Oklahoma City. Their only loss on a recent four-game home stand came by two points. They are 6-1 ATS this season in home games where the total is 210 or higher. I love the young talent on hand here, particularly Karl Anthony-Towns, who went for 37 points and 12 rebounds on Thursday. An often leaky Nuggets defense likely will have no answer for him. Denver enjoyed its biggest lead in any game this season last night (35) and held a team under 100 points for the 1st time since December 8th. Yes, this is one of the worst defensive teams in the league as they allow 111.6 points per game. They too have been hot (won 4 of 5), but they come to the Twin Cities w/o rest and a bit shorthanded. Both Gary Harris and Emmanuel Mudiay are unlikely to play. That's your starting backcourt right there. So it won't be as big as deal that the T'wolves are w/o PG Ricky Rubio (could be traded). This is also a double revenge spot for Minnesota as twice they've gone down to Denver this year, both games decided by three points or less. 10* Minnesota |
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01-22-17 | Packers v. Falcons -4 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 74 h 56 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (3:00 ET): If it's true that "defense wins championships, either a) someone forgot to tell the Packers and Falcons or b) these two are in some real trouble. This year's NFC Championship Game has the highest total for a playoff game ever and the second highest total for any NFL game - ever! The number is absolutely merited too considering Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in six consecutive contests and Atlanta has done the same in five straight (actually 33 or more). So, more than likely, one side will simply have to outscore the other and I believe (at home, in the Dome), it's going to be the Falcons. This team was my *10* Game of the Month last week and I was more than pleased w/ what I saw. Their #1 ranked offense made Seattle look as bad as I've seen in the Russell Wilson-era. I think people don't realize just how good this offense is. Lay the points. Falcons QB Matt Ryan is my choice for MVP. Granted, he'd never covered a playoff game in his career until last week. But, this is the best team - specifically offense - he's had to work with. For the year, Atlanta averages 33.9 PPG (tops in the league) and the number obviously goes up here in the Georgia Dome. Since losing here in Week 1 to Tampa Bay, there hasn't been a home game since where Ryan and company didn't score at least 30 points. They've scored 36 or more the previous four here. Green Bay's upset of Dallas last week was actually Atlanta's gain now that they get another home game. What a break! The big story of the 24 hours leading up to this game is the reported flu bug that's hit the Green Bay locker room. Clearly, it couldn't have come at a worse time and QB Aaron Rodgers is one of those affected. Rodgers will obviously still play, but who he'll be throwing to is a different matter. The Packers' receiving corps is just ravaged right now due to injury. Three receivers, Jordy Nelson the most notable, are questionable at best for Sunday. Both Davante Adams and Geronimo Allen suffered injuries LW in Dallas. Whereas Atlanta essentially dominated their divisional round matchup, it felt as if Green Bay was fortunate to get out to such a big lead and hold on. In a game where offense clearly matters, the Packers coming into the Georgia Dome short-handed is a big deal. While neither team has a good defense, Atlanta's is slightly better. Green Bay ranking 31st out of 32 in pass defense is an ominous sign. While the Pack is better now than they were when they lost here by only one point earlier in the year, the Falcons are better too. 10* Atlanta |
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01-22-17 | La Salle v. VCU -7 | Top | 52-90 | Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
10* VCU (2:00 ET): VCU might be one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 (Dayton is the best, IMO), but lately they have not played like it, dropping B2B games as favorites to Davidson and Fordham. The loss earlier this week to Fordham came in overtime and by just two points w/ the game-winning basket being scored at the buzzer. That game winner came after VCU's Justin Tillman missed the front end of a one and one (game was tied). Both losses did take place on the road. This afternoon, the Rams welcome LaSalle to the Commonwealth and I like their chances of bouncing back given not only the home record, but the Explorers' lousy defense. Lay the points. VCU is 8-1 SU at home this year, outscoring foes by 17.6 points per game. The last time they played here, they destroyed George Washington by 30. But then came the loss to Davidson last Saturday as the team shot only 35% from the floor. The Rams never led against Fordham on Wednesday (battle of "Rams") as 22 turnovers proved costly in a game where they still outshot their opponents. Defensively, I believe VCU is more than fine as they rank in the top 54 nationally, allowing just 66.1 points per game. On the offensive end, LaSalle might be first in the A-10 in FG%, but VCU is a close second. The Rams had scored 81+ in three straight games before suffering the B2B losses. LaSalle is all offense and no defense. They give up 84.9 PPG on the road, which is a pretty frightening number. They do come into this game tied for first place in the conference as they've won five in a row. But four of those wins have come at home, two of them against St. Louis and Duquesne. The L3 games have all seen the Explorers shoot the lights out (over 58% overall!), but that's not sustainable, especially against this VCU defense. Last year, these teams exchanged victories, the road team winning both times. So it's about time the host returned the favor. I look for VCU to take advantage of LaSalle's leaky defense in this one. Another edge is they've had an extra day to prepare as LaSalle's last game took place Thursday (at home vs. Davidson), a game they still allowed 83 points. 10* VCU |
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01-21-17 | West Virginia -3 v. Kansas State | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (6:00 ET): I haven't even attempted to hide my affinity for Bob Huggins' West Virginia team this year. I've taken them multiple times already and with one exception (at Texas Tech), have always come out on the winning end. This evening sees them hitting the road, looking to bounce back from just their third loss of the season. Like the previous two, Wednesday's loss was close (by two points), but it was definitely the most shocking to date. As 16.5-pt favorites in Morgantown, they lost to Oklahoma in overtime. WVU's three losses this year have now come by a total of seven points, none by larger than a four-point margin. I realize Kansas State's "Octagon of Doom" is a tough place to win at, but the Mountaineers are just too good to drop B2B games. Lay the points. Kansas State is off an impressive road win as they beat Oklahoma State 96-88 (+3) on Wednesday. Of course, West Virginia has already gone to Stillwater and won by 17. In KSU's win, they shot a blistering 56.3% from the floor. That's highly unlikely to be repeated here, even at home. Also, it's not a good sign that the Wildcats couldn't really shake the Pokes until late, even shooting as well as they did. They allowed 88 points. Nevertheless, they'll take it as they'd previously dropped three of four, including a home game to Baylor right after the Bears got whitewashed in Morgantown earlier in the week. Making matters more difficult here is the fact that PG Kamau Stokes left the Oklahoma State game w/ an ankle injury. If he can't go here (listed as questionable), good luck handling WVU's press. Nicknamed "Press Virginia," the Mountaineers lead the country by forcing 23.8 TO's per game. They are #1 in TO margin and it's not even close as they're more than double the #2 team. Given the fact KSU could be w/o its starting point guard and already is turning it over on 18.6 percent of possessions in league play, this does not appear to be a favorable matchup for them. West Virginia lost to Oklahoma, in part, due to forcing only 12 turnovers. I expect them to amp up the pressure here. This is a deep team, one of only two in the country to grab at least 40% of its own misses at the offensive end as well. 10* West Virginia |
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01-21-17 | Wizards v. Pistons -1 | Top | 112-113 | Push | 0 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:05 ET): A brutal 15-game stretch from 12.16-1.13 (went 4-11 SU) made it look like Stan Van Gundy's Pistons were in freefall. But they've since responded w/ B2B wins. Beating the Lakers by five is certainly nothing to "write home about," however, Wednesday's dominating performance against what has been a red hot Atlanta team certainly was. Here at home, Detroit won 118-95 as 2.5-pt home dogs. Now they turn around and host another team they'll likely be fighting with for playoff position. That would be the Wizards, who has been playing well, like Atlanta was. But a key (for me) in handicapping this matchup is that it's in the Motor City. Washington is just 5-13 SU on the road this year and that's after a three-point win over the sorry Knicks Thursday. The Wiz come in riding a four-game SU/ATS win streak. They were the betting favorite in all four games, although just a slight one in each of the last three, which explains a 3-0 ATS mark despite two of the wins coming by only three points each. As you'd expect, John Wall is leading this charge w/ averages of 25+ points and 10+ assists per game. Offensively, the team has scored at least 100 points in nine consecutive games. But defensively, there are issues, particularly on the road where they give up 108.2 PPG. That's the primary reason for the subpar record away from D.C. and overall this team does not defend the three-point line well. At the same time, their own three-point shooting declines on the road, down to only 31.3 percent. Looking at the team's five road wins, none have come against an opponent w/ a winning record. Detroit dominated Atlanta from the start on Wednesday, scoring a season-best 42 points in the first quarter and they never once trailed. But, make no mistake about it, defense will carry this team if it ends up going anywhere of consequence. They held Atlanta below 40 percent shooting and it should be noted that despite the recent rough stretch, the Pistons still rank a solid 12th in defensive efficiency (were much higher before the slide). This is also a revenge spot too for a game they allowed Washington to shoot 57.1% from the floor. That actually begat the 4-11 slide. The game was also in D.C. Furthermore, the Pistons are now a perfect 6-0 ATS this season when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Their average margin of victory in those games, including Wednesday's win over Atlanta, is 15.0 points per game. 10* Detroit |
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01-21-17 | South Carolina v. Kentucky -13.5 | Top | 69-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (6:00 ET): These are the only two teams still w/o loss in SEC play. But as you can tell from the line, "not all unbeatens are created equal." While its obvious that Kentucky is the top team in its conference, a case could also be made that they are the top team in the country. The Wildcats come into Saturday ranked #5 in the country and have won six straight since their three-point loss to Louisville. Those six wins have all come in SEC play as they're outscoring foes by a whopping 20.6 points per game. Meanwhile, South Carolina might be ranked as well, but I'm not sure they're among the 35 best teams in the country, let alone top 25. Their avg MOV in conf play is less than nine points per game. I expect UK to roll here. Lay the points. Coach Cal's team has failed to cover three in a row. They're off one of their closest calls so far as they only prevailed 88-81 in Starkville against Mississippi State as 14-pt favorites. The fact that MSU shot the ball so well (54.2%) is what kept them in the game. However, I'll point out that the Wildcats were up by as many as 17 in the second half. That was their highest shooting percentage allowed for the season and only the third time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the floor (other two were N Carolina & UCLA). Offensively, there are no issues here. They've scored at least 87 pts in every league game while shooting 52.2%! Only UCLA is rated higher in offensive efficiency, nationally. South Carolina has never had much success against Kentucky. Over the past two seasons, they are 0-3 SU/ATS against the Wildcats, losing by 15, 34 and 27. The most lopsided loss came here in Lexington where they're just 1-16 SU past 17 visits. I wouldn't be too worried about this price range either as UK is already 6-2 ATS this season laying 12.5 or more points at Rupp Arena. Kudos to the job HC Frank Martin is doing in Columbia, but his Gamecocks are in over their head in this one. This is not exactly a favorable spot either after having to play Florida on Tuesday. They grinded out a four-point win there (at home) despite shooting a horrible 29.4% from the floor. They are now shooting just 38.1% in SEC play. Anywhere near that average here and this will quickly turn into "blowout city." 10* Kentucky |
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01-21-17 | Georgia v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 13 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): This is the Aggies' second consecutive game being favored at home. They lost (by two) to Arkansas on Tuesday. That marked their second consecutive loss as they've started 1-5 in SEC play. I do not see them dropping B2B games here in College Station, so early this afternoon I'll be laying the points as they welcome in a Georgia team that's probably a bit overconfident coming off a 10-point win over Vanderbilt. That game took place in Athens, however. While the 'Dawgs might be 3-0 ATS on the SEC road thus far, I don't see them keeping that up. Last year, they were thrashed by A&M, losing by 34 at home. While I'm sure the players remember, the revenge angle is superseeded here by likelihood of an Aggies' bounce-back on their home court. In fact, Texas A&M is just 1-7 ATS its last eight games. They've been favored in the L2 games, dropping both outright. Last Saturday saw them go down at Mississippi State, 67-59 as 2.5-pt chalk. They dominated the board in that game (38-23 rebounding edge), but lost due to 22 turnovers and horrific (1 of 14) shooting from three-point range. They actually jumped out to a 10-0 lead to start the game. It was another blown lead Tuesday as they blew a 12-pt second half lead vs. Arkansas. Again, the team failed to shoot the ball well from three-point range (6 of 20). But, overall, the team has shot the ball this year (47.1%) and while depth has been a concern for HC Billy Kennedy (lost four starters from LY's Sweet 16 team), it's not as if they've been playing all that poorly. A&M can defend as here at home, they're giving up an average of just 62 PPG. It is Georgia that really doesn't shoot well from three-point range, at least on the road where they're just 27.7% for the season. I'll point out that A&M has already faced both unbeaten SEC schools (Kentucky, South Carolina) and was actually FAVORED against a top 20 Arizona team on a neutral floor. The market has simply moved too far against them for this one as simply can't see them failing to cover for a third straight time as a short favorite. They are still 38-8 SU L46 home games. 8* Texas A&M |
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01-20-17 | Cleveland State v. Wisc-Milwaukee -1.5 | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* WI-Milwaukee (8:00 ET): Have we really reached the point of the College Basketball season where we can start talking about revenge? How time flies! In a result you likely missed (unless you're a HUGE fan of Horizon League basketball), Cleveland State beat WI-Milwaukee at home on New Year's Eve, 62-53 as five-point faves. The Vikings shot 53.5% from the floor in that game, 7 of 17 from three-point range and made 9 of 11 free throws. That's a highly irregular efficient day on the offensive end for this team. Asking CSU to win on the road seems a bit much given their 1-9 SU record in "true" road affairs. They are also just 3-10 ATS as underdogs. Having to only lay the shortest of numbers, WI-Milwaukee will get its revenge tonight. Admittedly, little has gone right for WI-Milwaukee this season. They have just one win in Horizon League play thus far (66-58 over N Kentucky) and that's their ONLY win in the L10 games period. After blowing an 11-pt lead in the second half vs. Wright State last Saturday, the Panthers fell on the road to IL-Chicago on Tuesday, 71-57 as four-point dogs. That was actually their largest margin of defeat so far in conference play. Each of the L2 years have seen they cover easily here at home against Cleveland State. Last year was a 34-point win while 2015 brought an outright upset as four-point dogs. The Panthers have been far more competitive at home, outscoring opponents and holding them to just 65 PPG. After beating WI-Milwaukee, Cleveland State promptly lost its last four games. Twice they were held to 54 points or less. But then on Monday they pulled a somewhat shocking upset, winning at Oakland 76-65 as 13.5-pt dogs. That was their first and only "true" road win thus far. They received a career-high 32 points from Rob Edwards, but expecting a repeat performance seems a little "fool-hardy." The Vikings had a strong showing from three-point range in the upset, but are actually dead last among Horizon League teams in 3-pt%. Little has gone right for Milwaukee thus far, but this is a game that they should - and WILL - win. 10* WI-Milwaukee |
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01-20-17 | Raptors v. Hornets | Top | 78-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The Hornets had lost five in a row prior to beating Portland 107-85 on Wednesday as 5.5-pt favorites. Pertinent to our discussion here is the fact that all five Hornets losses occurred out on the road, two of them at San Antonio and Houston. Tonight, they'll draw another top five team, but this time at home. Toronto suffered what has to be considered somewhat of a shocking loss their last time out, falling 94-89 at Philadelphia. It was their lowest scoring output since their own loss at San Antonio back on Jan 3rd. While the Raptors are 5-1 ATS this year off a SU loss as a favorite, I don't see Charlotte losing again after (finally) creating some positive momentum (there's that word again) in their last game. The Raptors could very well be a bit short-handed here. DeMarre Carroll (neck), Lucas Noguiera (concussion) and Patrick Patterson (knee) are all listed as questionable. That puts a lot of pressure on the starting guard duo of DeMar DeRozam and Kyle Lowry. Toronto shot only 40% against Philadelphia and was outrebounded. Defensively, this team is giving up 105.7 PPG on the road this year. Charlotte's own defense got back on track against the Blazers. It was the first time holding an opponent below 100 pts in 2017. They'll be tested by the #2 offense in efficiency, but overall the Hornets remain eighth in defensive efficiency. They hosted Toronto once this year (only meeting so far) and lost by two thanks to the Raptors making 21 of 22 free throw attempts. The Hornets shot only 40% from the floor in that game. Charlotte is definitely better than its record from where I sit where I'm not sure you can say the same about Toronto, who couldn't have asked for its first half to go any better. Must win for the home team? I look for them to deliver. 10* Charlotte |
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01-20-17 | Detroit v. Wright State -7 | Top | 88-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* Wright State (7:00 ET): What am I missing here? Wright State has already beaten Detroit once this year, on the road, and did it as 6.5-pt road favorites. The final score was 85-72. Therefore, I'm trying to figure out this line for Friday's rematch as the Raiders are essentially being asked to lay the same number on their home floor. I get that Detroit comes in off B2B wins, one of them an impressive upset at Oakland. But this line appears to be way off from where I sit as prior to those B2B wins, Detroit was just 2-14 SU for the season w/ one of those wins coming in the season opener against a non-DI school. Lay the points here. Wright State had dropped B2B games before playing WI-Milwaukee last Saturday. They beat the Panthers 70-67. While they definitely had to rally late to do so (never led in the first half), it's always impressive to win on the conference road, especially when playing there for the second time in three nights. It's a much better situation here for Wright State as they've been off since Saturday while Detroit had to play Monday. This will be the Raiders' first home game since suffering an outright loss to Youngstown State on 1.7. They're still 7-2 SU at the Nutter Center, however, and outscoring visitors by 13.3 points per game. Detroit is just 1-9 SU on the road, allowing 86.2 points per game. It's no surprise (to me) that Wright State achieved its highest scoring game in Horizon League play thus far at the Titans' expense. Detroit had lost five in a row before picking up its lone road win of the last Friday, a real shocker over Oakland as they were 18.5-pt dogs in that one. They followed that up by winning Monday, 87-71 at home over Youngstown State. Again though, this is a team w/ only four wins all year. They allowed Wright State to shoot 55% from the floor in the first meeting, including 12 of 21 from three-point range. The Raiders are shooting better than 40% from behind the arc here at home. Meanwhile, I would not expect Detroit to have a good night from three-point range as they're only 30% for the year and WSU holds visiting teams to 29%. 8* Wright State |
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01-19-17 | Rice v. Louisiana Tech -5 | Top | 64-74 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
10* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): Right now, everyone in Conference USA is chasing first place Middle Tennessee, who is probably one of the top so-called "mid majors" in the entire country. One of the three teams only one game back is Louisiana Tech and I believe the Bulldogs have the best shot out of the three to catch the Blue Raiders. They won't be playing MTSU until the end of the month (in Murfreesboro), but between then and now they have some favorable draws, including this one at home vs. Rice. While sharing the same overall record as La Tech (12-6 SU), Rice is only 2-3 SU in conference play (La Tech is 4-1). The matching overall records is a bit misleading when you consider that twice in the last month La Tech has lost a one-point game. Lay the points here. One of those one-point losses for La Tech came the last time they played here in Ruston as they fell 69-68 to UTSA as 16.5-pt favorites. Since then, they've rattled off consecutive victories on the road over Charlotte and Old Dominion. The latter came Saturday as short one-point underdogs. The Bulldogs shot a blistering 56.8% from the floor and while that will be difficult to match here, Rice is not good defensively as they allow 76.6 PPG on the road, including better than 40% three-point shooting! Despite the shocking loss to UTSA two Saturdays ago, La Tech is still 9-2 SU in Ruston and outscoring opponents here by an average of 20.6 points per game. They average over 80 PPG while giving up just 58.9. Perhaps the three-point line will be the difference here as at home, La Tech is allowing its opponents to shoot only 29.4% from behind the arc. Rice has already played Middle Tennessee, at home, and lost 80-77. That was a pretty admirable showing back on 1.5, but now for the first time in 17 days the Owls have to hit the road. They avoided what would have been an 0-3 home stand w/ a 101-79 thrashing of North Texas on Saturday. To be clear, North Texas is very bad. I mentioned earlier that La Tech shot 56.8% from the floor in their last game. Well, they were at 61.2% the game before that. So Rice's porous defense is in trouble here. La Tech is actually one of only 10 teams in the country currently ranked in the top 50 in FG% offense and defense. What made Saturday's shooting so impressive is that ODU came in ranked fourth nationally in points allowed! 10* Louisiana Tech |
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01-19-17 | Maryland v. Iowa -2 | Top | 84-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
8* Iowa (7:00 ET): For a third consecutive season, Maryland has started the season at 15-2 (SU) or better. This year's squad is now 16-2 SU after going to Illinois on Saturday and "upsetting" the slightly favored Illini (line was Maryland +3.5), 62-56. It was the Terps' third straight outright win as an underdog here in Big 10 play. That runs their record to an impressive 6-0 ATS as a dog this season! But, as we'll see, this has been quite the fortunate team so far in 2016-17. Meanwhile, we cannot say the same for Iowa, who is off an awful 35-point road loss to Northwestern on Saturday. What made that defeat particularly frustrating is the Hawkeyes were coming off an impressive upset of Purdue earlier in the week. I'll call for a bounce back here. Though 16-2 straight up, Maryland has had plenty of close calls go their way. Eight wins have come by six points or less, including the last two. They also won at Michigan 77-70 on January 7th as eight-point underdogs. They followed that up w/ a home win over Indiana, 75-72, as 1.5-pt dogs. Turnover margin and free throw attempts, both roughly a 2:1 margin in favor of the Terrapins, were the keys there. Saturday in Illinois saw them come from behind to win. They were able to dominate the paint and the fact the Illini went scoreless for seven minutes in the second half was key as well. As good as Maryland likely feels about itself right now, this is their third time playing on the road in the L4 games. They continue to be w/o two players in the rotation - Dion Wiley and Michal Cekovsky. Fran McCaffery is infamously one of the more ornery coaches in the country, so I'm assuming he blew his gasket following his team's loss in Evanston Saturday. Nothing went right for the Hawkeyes as they shot just 35.3% from the floor while allowing Northwestern to shoot 59.7%. There's virtually no way that they'll face such a lopsided shooting discrepancy again here. Remember, Iowa beat Purdue on this floor last week. I don't care what the standings say; Purdue is a better team than Maryland. The Hawkeyes shot 56.7% from the floor in that game. They average 88.7 PPG at home for the year. Peter Jok, who leads the Big 10 in scoring, is off a season-low four points in the last game. He'll lead the rebound tonight. 8* Iowa |
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01-18-17 | South Dakota v. Oral Roberts -1.5 | Top | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
8* Oral Roberts (8:00 ET): Last Thursday, Oral Roberts won for the 1st time in Summit League play, downing South Dakota State 94-88 as five-point home favorites. They followed that up by losing on Saturday, here at home, to IUPUI. The final score Saturday was 91-85 w/ ORU being a slight (3.5-point) favorite and it was the first time in 11 matchups the Golden Eagles lost to IUPUI. At first blush, it might seem curious to find a team w/ a 5-14 SU record favored yet again, but take note that this is actually the fourth consecutive game that Oral Roberts has been laying points. While just 1-2 ATS previously, the oddsmakers are really saying something about South Dakota w/ this line. What they're saying is the Coyotes aren't very good. Lay the short number. Now South Dakota has been finding plenty of success here in Summit League play. In fact, they're 6-0 against the spread in league games thus far. But they've gotten to play the L3 games all at home. Saturday saw them overcome 37.3% shooting to defeat Ft. Wayne 66-63 as 2.5-point dogs. That score is VERY low-scoring by Summit League standards and the Coyotes are highly unlikely to prevail again tonight were they to shoot the ball so poorly. Oral Roberts comes in averaging 82.3 PPG at home and is off B2B games where they shot 50%. Saturday against Ft. Wayne, South Dakota got a career-best 30 points from Matt Mooney and enjoyed a 20-8 edge in FT's made. Those numbers likely won't repeat themselves here. The Coyotes also actually had to rally back from an eight-point halftime deficit in that game. Oral Roberts will have to shore things up defensively as three of their previous four opponents have shot 52% or better from the floor. Fortunately, South Dakota is one of the weaker teams offensively in the Summit League. Also, this being a home game for Oral Roberts is huge. While they're an unsightly 0-9 SU on the road, they're 5-2 at home. South Dakota is just 3-5 SU on the road (9-1 at home). It should be noted that Oral Roberts' won loss record is a bit misleading as according to RPI, it's been one of the 10 toughest in the country. This is also a triple revenge spot as South Dakota managed to take both meetings last year and the second of the 2014-15 season. 8* Oral Roberts |
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01-18-17 | Raptors -5 v. 76ers | Top | 89-94 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:05 ET): So often, we find NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back getting undervalued by the oddsmakers and public alike. That certainly appears to be the case tonight w/ unrested Toronto traveling to Philadelphia. Last night, the Raptors prevailed in Brooklyn, 119-109, which depending on when you bet the game could have either been an ATS win or loss. The 76ers have moved past the Nets in my own personal rankings, but they're not that much better and thus I feel they are getting way too much "credit" in this spot. It could be the fact that they're 7-1 ATS L8 games or simply that Toronto played last night. But, whatever the reason, I'll lay the points. Toronto has won and covered four straight itself, all against Atlantic Division foes. They've beaten Brooklyn twice, Boston and the Knicks. That leaves only Philly to complete the sweep. Certainly, the Raptors have had no problems beating up on division foes all year as they're 9-0 SU (8-1 ATS) vs. the rest of the Atlantic w/ an average margin of victory of +13.1 points per game. Going back to the start of the 2014-15 season, the Raptors are a pretty amazing 34-7 SU vs. division foes. Philadelphia is the one in particular they've dominated, going a perfect 10-0 straight up and 8-2 against the spread. They've averaged 122.5 PPG in a pair of wins over them earlier this season. Given that Toronto is third in the league in net efficiency rating (1st offensively), it is really shocking that this line isn't higher. The Raptors have been favored by at least five in each of their previous four games and again, covered the spread every time. The 76ers are not only 7-1 ATS their last eight games, but they've also won straight up SIX times during this stretch. It's clearly the best basketball we've seen from this franchise in a long time. Monday afternoon, they surprised Milwaukee w/ a 113-104 upset as 8.5-pt dogs. But, make no mistake about it, they are still one of the worst teams in the league. Especially on the offensive end where they are the ONLY team in the league currently averaging less than a point per possession. So w/ Toronto being #1 in offensive efficiency, this looks like a bad matchup. Another bad matchup here (from the 76ers' perspective) lies at the points guard position. The Raptors gave Kyle Lowry the night off yday, so he'll be rested here. Meanwhile, Philly is still w/o TJ McConnell. 10* Toronto |
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01-18-17 | South Dakota State +6.5 v. IUPU-Indianapolis | Top | 83-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): From a bettors' perspective, there are obviously two desirable outcomes when taking an underdog. One is they can simply cover the spread. The other is winning straight up. But don't tell any of that the few brave enough to call themselves "South Dakota State backers" this season. The Jackrabbits are an unfathomable 0-10 against the spread when getting points. Overall, they're 3-14 at the betting window, which is quite miserable, but that also means the record as a favorite is actually 3-4. Tonight, they find themselves in the "dreaded" underdog role again, but I'll step in and take them w/ what I feel is an inflated number. The opponent here is IUPUI, who didn't need the points (+3.5) in pulling off a minor upset at Oral Roberts on Saturday. One of the big reasons I like South Dakota State in this spot is that they've been off since Thursday. That gives them two extra days to prepare here. Prior to beating Oral Roberts, IUPUI had dropped three straight Summit League contests, including an outright loss here at home exactly one week ago to Nebraska-Omaha. Saturday was a big win for the Jaguars as it snapped a 10-game losing streak to Oral Roberts. I cannot see them shooting the ball as well tonight as they did on Saturday when they made 54% of their total field goal attempts. Neither of these teams are good defensively, so that's another reason why the points look so attractive. IUPUI allows 77.3 points per game while South Dakota State allows 77.9. This will be the most points that SDSU has gotten in any conference game thus far. I think it's important to note that their last three losses have all been by eight points or less. Having failed to cover six straight games, there's now some value on the Jackrabbits. Over the last two seasons, they were favored to beat IUPUI in all four meetings (went 3-1 SU/ATS), so being the underdog is new territory here. The added time off should pay dividends. Over the L3 seasons, they are 7-3 SU when playing w/ five or six days rest. IUPUI has allowed three of its last four opponents to shoot at least 50% from the floor, so expect SDSU to find success offensively tonight. 10* South Dakota State |
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01-17-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers -1.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): I figured that it would be pretty rare to find the Lakers favored. But, in fact, this will be the 11th time its happened this season. While that may not seem like a lot (it's only 25% of their total games played), the fact that this is one of the worst teams in the league suggests they've somehow been overvalued. But I don't believe that to be the case here tonight as they welcome in a Nuggets team that quite frankly isn't very good either. Denver is feeling a "mile high" here after B2B wins over Indiana and Orlando where they tallied 265 total pts. The Lakers defense may give me pause, but catching the Nuggets in the second game of a back to back is advantageous. Lay the points. The Lakers come into this game as losers of four straight. Three of those losses have been by double digits. But they were at least close Saturday vs. Detroit, losing by just five. I was actually on the Pistons there and they covered the short number. While the defense has never been great for this team all season, it was the lack of offense that hurt them against Detroit. For the fourth straight time, they failed to score 100 pts. But that should change here against a foe that is alongside them among the worst defensive teams in the league. Denver actually gives up MORE points per game than the Lakers at 111.2. Only Brooklyn and Phoenix are allowing more PPG currently. The Nuggets have been lights out offensively these L2 games. They shot almost 58% overall against the Pacers and Magic and while that sounds troubling for a young Lakers team that often struggles to defend, the fact is I do not believe for a second that Denver can sustain its recent offensive production. Nor do I believe they will be able to sustain a current six-game win streak here at Staples Center (when facing the Lakers). In addition to playing w/o rest, making the Nuggets' task tougher tonight will be the absence of starting SG Gary Harris, who sprained his ankle in last night's win. Do I often stump for teams being undervalued in the second game of a back to back? Yes, but Denver is just 1-6 SU when playing w/o rest this season. 10* LA Lakers |
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01-17-17 | Iona -3.5 v. Manhattan | 82-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Iona (7:00 ET): The Gaels are looking to rebound from yet another surprising MAAC loss here. Saturday saw them go down as seven-point road favorites, in overtime, to lowly Quinnipiac. They're on the road again Tuesday, but laying a shorter number against a Manhattan team that's off a close win over Rider here at home. The Jaspers were able to win Friday despite the absence of one key reserve and preseason MAAC second-teamer Rich Williams, who has yet to play at all this season. These conference rivals are obviously no strangers to one another having met five times over the previous two seasons. While Manhattan was able to pull an upset back in the 2015 MAAC Tourney, Iona has won all four regular season matchups. I'll lay the short number here. The big reason Manhattan was able to win on Friday was that they got a career-best 35 points from Zane Waterman. While Waterman is the Jaspers' leading scorer, that kind of production probably cannot be counted upon for a second straight game. While nether team shot the ball well Friday, Manhattan was able to beat Rider due in large part to a +11 edge in FT's made. Also, it was their second straight game having to rally from a halftime deficit at home. Last Tuesday they were behind Niagara at the break before coming out and shooting a blistering 58.2% as a team in the 2H. Defense remains an issue for the Jaspers as they are giving up 78.6 points per game. They were also outrebounded by Rider on Friday. Iona certainly is no stranger to playing on the road. In fact, they've played only FIVE home games thus far. Could fatigue be setting in? Possibly, but I don't think the spot tonight will be too much to overcome for the Gaels. They blew a late second half lead against Quinnipiac, who by the way also beat Manhattan already. It also didn't help that Iona shot only 7 of 23 from three-point range. Things really fell apart in OT, but considering the team still averages over 78 PPG for the season, scoring points should NOT be an issue tonight. With only two double digit scorers on its roster, Manhattan should have a tough time keeping up here. 8* Iona |
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01-17-17 | Bowling Green v. Toledo -8.5 | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): Both MAC West rivals will be looking to rebound from back to back losses here, but the situations may not be as similar as you think. Whereas Toledo is off two straight losses on the road, BG just dropped a pair at home and by larger margins. Now the Falcons are the road team and it's tough to like their chances after watching them score just 52 and 53 points in those consecutive defeats. Toledo was actually a road favorite in both of its losses last week, at Western and Central Michigan, so it looks like the market may be short-changing them a bit for this home date. They swept Bowling Green last year. Lay the points. Last Tuesday, Bowling Green was absolutely destroyed by Eastern Michigan, 81-53. Though for the 1st half that game was relatively close, the numbers still "tell the story" and that's they allowed EMU to shoot better than 58 percent from the floor (!) while making only 33% of their own attempts. It wasn't quite as ugly Saturday vs. Northern Illinois, but the Falcons still lost a pick 'em game at home by 17 pts. It's really hard to like their chances going out on the road where they're 1-6 SU this season. That one win did come in MAC play, but at Ball State, a significantly weaker opponent than what they'll face here. They've lost five straight times to their I-75 rival and last won here in Toledo back in 2011. Defense was a major issue for Toledo last week, but the Rockets should simply have too much firepower tonight. Incredibly, Western Michigan shot 70% against the Rockets last Tuesday. No opponent will shoot that high of a percentage against them the rest of the year. Over the weekend, not once did they lead at Central Michigan, giving up 96 pts in the process. Falling behind 11-0 out of the gate really doomed them there. But this is a team that's still 7-1 SU at home this year, outscoring visiting teams by an impressive margin of 15.6 points per game. Given that BGSU just scored 52 and 53 points in its two games LW, I don't think defense will be an issue for Toledo tonight. 8* Toledo |
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01-16-17 | Cavs v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 91-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Both of LY's NBA Finalists snapped six-game ATS losing streaks their last time out. Cleveland won 120-108 at Sacramento while Golden State blew out Detroit 127-107 here at home. But, without a doubt, the streak that the Dubs are more concerned with here is their four straight losses to the Cavaliers. Three of those infamously took place in LY's Finals. The most recent was on X-Mas Day as they blew a double digit lead in the fourth quarter and lost by one, again done in by Kyrie Irving. But this go-around, the situation greatly favors them. Not only have they had one extra day to prepare compared to Cleveland, but the Cavs are also wrapping up a six-game road trip here. Lay the points. The Warriors might be 1-6 ATS their L7 games, but being a double-digit fave in every time has played a large role in that. The only loss that they've suffered since Christmas was a game vs. Memphis where they blew a 19-pt fourth quarter lead. Certainly, you have to imagine this a matchup where they will not be lacking for motivation. Last year on MLK Day, they destroyed the Cavaliers (in Cleveland) 132-98. Since taking that 3-1 lead in LY's Finals, they are 0-4 SU/ATS vs. the Cavs. But with the addition of Kevin Durant this year, the Dubs may even be stronger than they were last season. A big difference moving forward is that they will not be burdened w/ the silly chase of a relatively meaningless regular season wins record. Not only are the Warriors #2 in offensive efficiency currently, they are #2 defensively as well! Cleveland has major depth issues going on right now (no backup point guard, no JR Smith) and has really slipped defensively this year. While they actually give up slightly less points per game, in terms of points per possession, the Cavs are clearly inferior. Whereas the Warriors rank #2 in defensive efficiency, the Cavs are only tied for 12th. LeBron and company are also just 11-7 SU/7-11 ATS on the road this year. Tonight marks the most rest that Golden State has had coming into any game all season! When these teams met on X-Mas, the Warriors were playing their third road game in four nights out East. Now, the proverbial shoe is on the other foot. 10* Golden State |
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01-16-17 | Georgia Southern v. Louisiana-Monroe +4.5 | Top | 62-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* UL Monroe (8:00 ET): This is a very tough spot for favored Georgia Southern. They are coming off a huge win at UL Lafayette, 81-76 as nine-point underdogs. The win leaves the Eagles as the Sun Belt's lone unbeaten in conference play (4-0). Tonight, they hit the road again (second road game in three days!) to play the only SBC team w/o a win in league play. That would be UL Monroe. But please do not make the mistake of discounting the Warhawks chances in this one (I'm certainly not!). While 0-4 SU in league play thus far, three of those losses have been quite close, including one they just suffered here at home in overtime to Georgia State on Saturday. Incredibly, that was their third OT loss already this season (two in conf play!). I think it's time for this team to break through w/ an upset. Take the points. The Warhawks had not lost at home before Saturday. Had their shooting not gone ice cold in overtime, perhaps they would still be unbeaten. I have to admit that I am a little concerned about the fact the team is shooting just 37.9% from the floor in conference play. But the Georgia State game was the first one that took place at home. Here at Fant-Ewing Coliseum, the Warhawks are shooting better than 50% for the year including 45% from three-point range. So, I'll call for a big bounce back offensively here. Last season, they beat Ga Southern on this floor, 83-76, shooting 54.1%. Their home ATS record is 17-9 the L3 seasons. Beating the team that's perceived as the Sun Belt's best (UL Lafayette) was huge for Georgia Southern. It was their fifth win in a row and seventh in the last eight games overall. The only loss during the stretch came by just two points at Hampton. However, the last three wins all have been by five points or less and they've given up an average of 79 points per game. That's a difficult, if not impossible, way to sustain success. They had to rally back from a halftime deficit to defeat LA Lafayette. It was a 51-point effort in the second half, something that's hard to come by. Two keys to the Eagles pulling that upset were a) LA Lafayette going only 3 of 18 from three-point range and b) GSU making 16 more free throws. 8* UL Monroe |
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01-16-17 | Creighton v. Xavier -3.5 | Top | 72-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
8* Xavier (2:00 ET): This is obviously a very big game in the Big East w/ the two of the top teams in the conference colliding. As far as "who's hotter" coming into this afternoon's clash, there is no debate. Creighton is 17-1 SU this year (only loss to Villanova) and went the "tune up" route on Saturday, hosting non-DI Truman State, whom they annihilated 101-69. Meanwhile, Xavier had to go to Butler and lost a close one, 83-78 as four-point dogs. That followed another road loss, 79-54 to Villanova. That's a tough stretch for any team, so the fact the Musketeers went 0-2 is of no real concern to me. They're 9-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 18.9 points per game so far. Lay the points. Creighton is certainly no slouch. The Blue Jays will likely find themsleves in the top 7 when the new polls come out later today. If you're a regular of mine, then you're already aware of my lack of regard for the pollsters. I do not think Creighton is a top seven team in the country. They are top 20 for sure, but not top 10. When searching for a "best win" this year, Wisconsin early in the year and Butler last week both come to mind. But those came in Omaha. Because they're 12-4 ATS overall, I feel they're a little overvalued right now. Remember that they are still w/o senior center Zach Hanson. The team is shooting remarkably well so far (53.5 FG%), but Xavier's defense will present the toughest matchup since Villanova. The Musketeers could very well drop out of the Top 25 due to the B2B losses, but IMO they are still Top 25 worthy. Before the last week, they'd lost only two games and one of them was at Baylor, who (for now) is #1 in the country. The other loss came by two at Colorado. While the final score says they lost by 25 at 'Nova, note that was a close game at halftime. They led Butler at the half (by six) Saturday before another second half defensive meltdown. The fact that the Musketeers allow just 61.2 PPG at home tells me we won't have that same issue this afternoon. Point guard Edward Sumner is listed as probable to play, so don't worry about that. I look for Xavier to snap a four-game ATS (2-2 SU) losing skid to Creighton here. 8* Xavier |
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01-15-17 | Pistons -2 v. Lakers | 102-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 54 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (9:35 ET): Call me crazy, but I feel that Pistons HC Stan Van Gundy could be in some real trouble if his team were to lose tonight. Fortunately for SVG, the opponent here is the lowly Lakers. Detroit, expected to be a bit of a breakout team in the East this year, is instead languishing at six games below .500 and three games back of the eighth place team. Of course, that would be an enviable position as far as the Lakers are concerned. After a surprisingly all right start to the season, they're exactly where we expected them to be and that's at the bottom of the standings. I have only two teams in the entire league rated worse in my own power rankings and those are Philadelphia and Brooklyn. Lay the short number here. Sometime right before X-Mas, it all started going very badly for the Pistons. They've lost 11 of 15 overall. One of those four wins came against Cleveland, the day after X-Mas (Cavs had just beaten Golden State) and they didn't have to face LeBron James. Their only two wins since we flipped the calendar to 2017 both came by exactly one point. So you might feel as if this is not a prime candidate to be laying points with right now, but fortunately the number is short and the opponent is the Lakers. Los Angeles also has just four wins in its L15 games and they've lost three straight, all in blowout fashion. Saturday afternoon, it was 113-97 to the Clippers. They are just 3-6 SU this year when playing in the second game of a back to back. Detroit is wrapping up a five-game West Coast swing here, but at least has the edge in rest. Friday went very poorly for them in Utah (lost 110-77), but that result SHOULD have the players eager to atone. It also helps that they'll be facing the worst defensive team in the league on a per possession basis. Ranking 30th in defensive efficiency, LA is giving up 110.3 points per game for the year. The Pistons defensive numbers have slipped of late, but they are still "miles ahead" of the Lakers. After they shot below 40% from the floor on Friday, I'll call for Detroit to have one of its stronger offensive efforts in some time tonight. They are 30-14 ATS L44 games w/ a total of 210 or higher. 8* Detroit |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs -1 | Top | 18-16 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 13 m | Show |
Note: This play is unaffected by the time change for Sunday. 8* Kansas City (8:20 ET): Three is considered a "key number" in betting for a reason. It's the standard issue for home field advantage in the NFL. Thus, when you have two seemingly evenly ranked teams, it seems reasonable to expect that home team would in fact be favored by a field goal. But, despite the fact that the Chiefs had last week off and HC Andy Reid is an amazing 19-2 SU off a bye in his career (3-0 in playoffs), that is not the case here. That seems strange to me. Pittsburgh did beat Miami 30-12 last week, but total yardage (367-305) and especially first downs (19-18) were not that lopsided. Rather, the result of that game hinged on the Dolphins turning the ball over three times and having to start Matt Moore at QB. This season marked the 1st time EVER that the Steelers came into the playoffs w/ QB Ben Roethlisberger, RB Le'Veon Bell and WR Antonio Brown all healthy. But in a cruel bit of irony, Big Ben was left in the game too long last week and suffered a foot injury late in taking a sack. A less than 100% Roethlisberger could be the difference here as I see value on the Chiefs. I'm not going to say that Pittsburgh's 43-14 win over Kansas City back in Week 4 has little to no relevancy, but just remember that last week the Black and Gold were the ones favored against a foe that beat them in the regular season. We saw how that worked out. The Week 4 loss was - clearly - the Chiefs worst game of this season. Their other three losses all came by seven points or less (two by identical 19-17 scores). Falling behind 22-0 after one quarter is what doomed KC is that reg season loss in Pittsburgh, which was a Sunday night game. Similarly, the Steelers jumped all over Miami early last week. I would not look for a similar early explosion from them here, not w/ Roethlisberger less than 100 percent. Also, the Kansas City defense (despite being w/o Derrick Johnson) is in much better shape now than it was in Week 4. That's because they have Justin Houston in the lineup. Honestly, I was shocked that Pittsburgh opened up as the favorite here, given the situation favoring Kansas City off the bye. As they are in almost every playoff game, turnovers will be the key here. The Chiefs have the best TO margin in the league over the last two seasons and the most points added from defense/special teams this season. That's not always sustainable, but last week saw Roethlisberger make a number of bad decisions throwing the football. He will not be able to get away w/ those mistakes against this defense, which is permitting only 15.7 PPG at home. While they arrive at Arrowhead Stadium riding an impressive sounding seven-game win streak, the best team the Steelers have beaten during that time is the Giants. They actually trailed by double digits in each of their final three regular season games. Chiefs' fans, who have seen just one playoff win since '93 (LY vs. Brian Hoyer-led Texans), have been dying for this opportunity for a long time and the team will respond in kind. 8* Kansas City |
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01-15-17 | Drake v. Northern Iowa -6.5 | Top | 60-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (4:00 ET): What has happened to Northern Iowa this year? Ben Jacobson's proud program is in a massive tailspin right now as they've lost seven in a row, the last five of which have come in Missouri Valley play (the others were to Iowa and North Carolina). Results at the betting window have been even worse as not only have the Panthers failed to cover the spread in all seven of those SU losses, they're also 3-12 ATS for the year! But help comes today in the form of MVC rival Drake, who UNI always seems to beat up on. Drake is 0-8 SU on the road this year and I think we're getting this matchup at a great price due to Drake having pulled a couple of surprising upsets (at home) in the last week. Lay the points. Being favored has not treated Northern Iowa well this year as they're just 1-6 ATS in the role, losing outright five times. The most recent instance came Wednesday at Bradley as they fell 72-61 as two-point chalk. The Panthers shot the ball horrifically (33.9% for the game) while at the same time allowing the Braves to connect on 55.1% of their FG attempts. Such a wide shooting disparity is pretty rare and I'd be surprised if we saw anything like that againt for UNI the rest of the season. Luckily for them, this game is at home where they are allowing only 61.2 points per game for the season. Their own scoring average rises (to 69.7 PPG) here in Cedar Falls. Facing a team that's allowed an average of 83.4 PPG in conference play should remedy some of the offensive woes we've seen recently. As mentioned earlier, Drake has pulled a couple of upsets over the past week. First, they beat Evansville 88-76 as 3.5-pt dogs. Then it was an 87-70 win over Indiana State (were +1) on Wednesday. But I think that most would still conclude that the Bulldogs are still one of the worst teams in the MVC. They have never had much success vs. Northern Iowa, going just 13-27 ATS L40 meetings, and the last two seasons have produced four double digit losses. They really benefited from Indiana State shooting only 32.4% on Wednesday. Even w/o Jeremy Morgan, I expect Northern Iowa to (finally!) get back on track in this one. 10* Northern Iowa |
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01-15-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-111 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (3:05 ET): Atlanta saw its seven-game win streak come to an end Friday as they lost at home to Boston, 103-101 as 3.5-pt favorites. The Celtics were my *10* Game of the Week in that spot. Seven game win streaks are certainly "hard to come by," but if you were w/ me on Friday's play, then you're already aware of the "holes" I was able to poke in the Hawks' recent ended streak. Their four-game road trip was about as easy as it gets w/ visits to Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn. While still fourth in the East, Atlanta's point differential and efficiency rating actually both place sixth. One of the teams ahead of them is this afternoon's opponent, Milwaukee. The better team is getting points in this instance. The Bucks showed me something in not experiencing a letdown against Miami Friday night. After all, it would have only been natural seeing as they were off a win at San Antonio on Tuesday. Led by sure-fire All Star Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee has really morphed into a good team and they are 8-5 ATS this year when taking on opponents that have a winning record. They jumped on Miami right away Friday night, scoring 42 points in the first quarter. They led by 17 going into the fourth quarter. What's notable from the win is Antetokounmpo didn't lead the team in points, rebounds or assists (a real rarity!). If this team can win when their star isn't at his best (he's been sick recently), that's a bad sign for the rest of the Conference. The Bucks are 0-2 SU/ATS this year vs. the Hawks, but in the last meeting they blew a 20-point halftime lead at home. Both games were decided by three points or less. I'm saying that the third time will be the charm here for Milwaukee as they are better than Atlanta in both per game point differential (+2.2 vs. +0.0) and net efficiency rating (+2.9 vs. +0.4). To me, even w/ Atlanta's home court edge, the line here should be a pick 'em. The fact that we are getting any points at all w/ what I consider to be the better team is an absolute steal. The Bucks are a top eight team in offensive efficiency and should take advantage of a Hawks team giving up 104.9 PPG at home. 10* Milwaukee |
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01-15-17 | Massachusetts v. Rhode Island -11 | 77-79 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
8* Rhode Island (2:30 ET): The two teams involved here brought me very different results in their respective last games. UMass treated me to a nice outright win (as 7-pt home dogs) hosting Dayton. But Rhode Island fell victim to a very hot-shooting LaSalle team and lost outright (as 12-pt home favorites). That was the Rams's second straight outright loss as they'd previously lost at Dayton (as a one-point favorite). Thus, there should be a real "sense of urgency" w/ the Rhodies this afternoon. Before Thursday, they had not dropped a home game and I'll call for them to bounce back w/ a big double digit win here. Lay the points. UMass has not fared particularly well in "true" road games thus far. They've won only two out of six and those wins were against Holy Cross and Georgia Southern. Prior to upsetting Dayton, the Minutemen were 0-3 in Atlantic 10 play, including losses at George Mason and VCU. They also lost at home to St. Bonaventure. That upset of Dayton was largely made possible by the Flyers shooting a horrid 31.7% from the floor. It certainly helped drawing them off their big win over Rhode Island. Holding a 34-27 halftime lead proved to be the difference. Also, Dayton has not won in Amherst since 2004. So while kudos should be given to the Minutemen for what they were able to pull off Wednesday (I did have them remember!), the fact is this really isn't that great of a team and they're probably in store for a letdown. Off their previous upset win (at Ga Southern), they would go on to lose the home game to St. Bonaventure their next time out. This is a really important game for Rhode Island, who cannot afford to lose a third straight conference game. Again, they were 8-0 SU at home before losing to LaSalle on Thursday. The Explorers couldn't miss as they shot a ridiculous 57.8% for the game compared to only 39.4% for the Rams. The 12-point loss was URI's largest of the season. I believe this team is better than it's 10-6 SU overall record as four of the losses have been by five points or less and another was to Duke. They did beat a very good Cincinnati team here at home earlier in the season. I can't believe that at home Rhode Island was -22 in FT attempts compared to LaSalle. UMass, who is below 30% for the year from three-point range, won't shoot the ball nearly as well. Three-point shooting is typically a difference maker for the Rams at home as they make 37.3% while allowing opponents to shoot 27.1%. They are +14.8 PPG at the Ryan Center. 8* Rhode Island |
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01-15-17 | Flyers +1.5 v. Capitals | 0-5 | Loss | -145 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
8* Puck Line Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Flyers +1.5. I feel like I've already written pretty extensively about the Metro. If you're not "up to speed," this is clearly the most competitive division in the league. Four of my top six ranked teams in the sport call the Metro home, but it's easy to forget that at one point this was a five-horse race. However, Philadelphia has fallen off the pace (7 pts back) due to losing 10 of their past 13. That makes it easy to forget that prior to this losing streak, they'd won 10 in a row! Today, they are being given no chance against one of those top four teams in the division, Washington, who enters on its own eight-game win streak. However, I see the Flyers coming in and doing no worse than a one-goal loss here. Take the PL. At no point this season has the Capitals' stock been higher than it is right now. Three of the last five wins have been shutouts and the last one was the most impressive as they destroyed Chicago 6-0 here in D.C. But that kind of result now has them priced way too high, in my opinon, making the +1.5 far more affordable than it ought to be. For the record, three times in during the Caps current eight game run, they've prevailed by just one goal. Note that nearly half of Washington's games this year (20 out of 42) have been decided by the one goal margin. For Philadelphia, the percentage of games decided by one goal compared to total games played is even higher. They've seen 25 of 43 games decided by the one goal margin. While in the second game of a back to back (lost 6-3 at Boston yday), the Flyers should hopefully far better here w/ Steve Mason in goal as opposed to the struggling Michael Neuvirth. They have a winning record in the second game of B2B's this year (6-4) and w/ Mason did beat the Capitals last month, by one goal, in a shootout. 8* Puck Line Philadelphia (+1.5) |
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01-14-17 | Santa Clara v. Pepperdine +4 | Top | 75-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
10* Pepperdine (8:00 ET): November and December were a "tale of two months" for Pepperdine. They didn't leave campus once in November and went a more than respectable 4-3 SU. December was a different story. After opening w/ a home date against Belmont (top team in the OVC), the Waves rode out 2016 with six consecutive road games. They lost all of them, only covering as 10-point dogs at Montana. They did beat Loyola Marymount in the first game of '17, but have since lost to San Diego and Pacific. And the news hasn't gotten any better in the last 24 hours as news broke they could continue to be short-handed w/ Knox Hellums and Ryan Keenan possibly out (undisclosed). But this will be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, traditionally a terrible spot. Take the points. Pepperdine still has three double digits scorers, most notably LaMond Murray Jr, who is averaging 19.4 points per game. You can trace the team's downfall to the loss of PG Amadi Udenyi as they've won only once w/o him. But grad transfer Chris Reyes has managed to step up (15.2 PPG) and so has Jeremy Major, a career 1,000+ point scorer. The team's 38.1% shooting from three-point range currently stands as the best for an Waves team since '03. Unfortunately, opponents have not been missing many attempts from behind the arc, currently at 42%, one of the highest percentages allowed in the entire country. You have to figure that number will start to come down, if not only because it has to. While Pepperdine lost a close one at Pacific on Thursday, Santa Clara won by an even slimmer margin at San Diego. It was 59-57 for the Broncos, who just missed out on covering as 2.5-pt faves. A made layup w/ just over one minute remaining ended up as the GW basket. Over the final eight minutes, the margin was never greater than three for either side. This just won't be Santa Clara's second road game in three nights, it's also their third straight overall. They shot poorly last Saturday at Loyola Marymount (the only WCC team Pepperdine has beaten!) as in 36.8% overall and lost. Scoring only 59 points Thursday does not lead me to conclude that this is a team that should be laying points on the conference road. 10* Pepperdine |
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01-14-17 | Seahawks v. Falcons -5 | Top | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 73 h 29 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (4:40 ET): At least for one week, we got to see the "Seattle of old." That was because they were fortunate enough to draw a weak Detroit team in the Wild Card Round, at home no less. Paced by Thomas Rawls' 161 yards rushing, the Seahawks essentially dominated the Lions "from bell to bell" in a 26-6 win and cover (I had them -8) where the only points allowed came on two long field goals. But, it goes w/o saying that this week brings a far stiffer challenge in the form of a trip to the Georgia Dome to play the rested and high-scoring Falcons. This is actually a rematch of a 2012 Divisional Round game, which was won by Atlanta 30-28, but in reality signified the genesis of a five-year Seattle run that has seen them make the playoffs every year and the Super Bowl twice (won one). Amazingly, it also represents the ONLY playoff win in the entire career of Falcons QB Matt Ryan. Seattle covered here in the Dome five years ago but this year it's Ryan and Atlanta's turn. Lay the points. Even in defeat, Seattle was probably the better team five years ago. This year though, that is NOT the case. This is probably the best Falcons team in the Ryan era and the QB has certainly presented a valid case for MVP. Atlanta's offense was the best in the league by a wide margin this year, averaging 33.8 points and 415.8 yards per game. They also average 6.7 yards per play, which is tops in the league. In terms of yards per play differential (what the offense averages vs. defense allows), these teams actually rank 1-2 in the league. But the gap between #1 (Atlanta) and #2 (Seattle) is larger than the gap between #2 and #12! The absence of Safety Earl Thomas looms large here as even w/ him in the lineup, the Seahawks gave up 335 yards passing and three touchdowns to Ryan back in Week 6. Seattle won that game 26-24, but it was at home and not w/o controversy as it sure looked like Thomas and Richard Sherman got away w/ pass interference on Falcons' WR Julio Jones on the final play. I expect Ryan to have a ton of success throwing the ball Saturday night. This offense had a league best 69 plays of 20+ yards during the regular season. Remember, an anemic Detroit passing attack simply lacked the personnel to attack the wounded Seahawks secondary, which has performed much worse w/ Thomas out of the lineup. This game taking place in the Georgia Dome is a big deal as Seattle is just 3-4-1 on the road this year and their last three road games have all been shaky. They barely won at San Francisco late in the year. Their worst game of this season came at Green Bay and the offense managed only five points in a loss at Tampa Bay. Though the Atlanta defense can sometimes be susceptible to the run, do not look for Rawls to repeat LW's performance, particularly if Seattle falls behind. Furthermore, the Seahawks' offensive line is in shambles and often fails to properly protect Russell Wilson, who has not been at 100 percent this year. What the Falcons' D is good at it is rushing the passer as Vic Beasley leads the league in sacks. On both sides of the ball, the Falcons are rested and healthy. This is their game to shine. 10* Atlanta |
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01-14-17 | Richmond v. St. Joe's -1.5 | Top | 70-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 51 m | Show |
10* St. Joe's (12:30 ET): St. Joe's was the top ATS team in the country last year, at least among those that regularly play lined games. They finished 24-11 ATS (28-8 SU). Somewhat predictably, they've regressed in 2016-17, starting just 5-9 vs. the number after losing here at home to George Mason (75-67 as four-point chalk) back on Tuesday. Richmond is the next team to invade Hagan Arena and I do not anticipate this venture being a successful one for the Spiders. Sure, they come in riding a four-game win streak, including upsets of Dayton and George Washington on the road. But home games w/ Fordham and St. Bonaventure were certainly advantageous. The road team won both meetings last season, so it's naturally time for the host to return the favor. St. Joe's has suffered a major blow w/ the loss of leading scorer Shavar Newkirk (20.5 PPG) for the rest of the season. But three players scored 16+ in the surprise loss to George Mason on Tuesday. I believe Newkirk's lost production can be made up for, specifically by James Demery and Lamarr Kimble. Also, here at home, the Hawks are typically potent offensively. So far, they are averaging 76.2 PPG here in Philly. While it's been a so-so start in the A-10 (just 2-2 SU), they did beat GW here. In the loss to George Mason, they led at halftime and into the second half. It was rare in that they allowed the opponent to shoot 50% while only shooting 42.2% themselves, including an awful 5 of 21 from theee-point range. It also didn't help that they were outscored by eight, the difference in the game, from the FT line. I guarantee we won't be seeing a repeat of those numbers here this afternoon. Richmond is unbeaten in A-10 play and certainly playing well. They've been between 77 and 82 points in each of their four league wins, but still only outscored those teams by 8.5 PPG, even after the 78-61 win over St. Bonaventure earlier in the week. This is the first EVER - as in program history - that they have started 4-0 SU in A-10 play. However, they actually trailed the Bonnies at halftime before exploding for 51 pts in the final 20 minutes. 10* St. Joe's |
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01-14-17 | Virginia -1.5 v. Clemson | 77-73 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show | |
8* Virginia (12:00 ET): I routinely clown on the polls only because they are often a very poor guide for evaluating the top teams. Case in point; my play earlier this week against #1 Baylor, who no reasonable mind truly believed was the best team in the country. Even though the Bears were unbeaten, they were underdogs in Morgantown and subsequently got clobbered 89-68 by WVU. Here, it's a similar situation, only in reverse. Virginia is currently ranked #19, but the idea that there are 18 teams better than Tony Bennett's Hoos is just ludicrous. No doubt Clemson will be highly motivated here, at home and looking to break a three-game losing streak. But this number is just way too short. Lay the points. Virginia was on its own losing streak (two games) before routing Wake Forest on Sunday, 79-62 as 12-pt chalk. The Cavs shot 49.1% overall from the floor, including a blistering 9 of 19 from three-point range. Of course, there was also their trademark defense, which held Wake to 40.4% overall and 6 of 21 from three-point range. In case you were unaware, UVA ranks 4th nationally in defensive efficiency (per KenPom) and allows just 52.1 points per game, fewest in the country. In their two recent losses, they gave up more than that, including an uncharacteristic 88 in their last road game, at Pitt. But I view that as "blip" on the radar, nothing more. The Cavs also have the edge here in that they've been off for five days while Clemson is playing for the second time in three days. The last time the Hoos had this much time off, they won their next game by 40 points! Clemson is 7-1 SU in Death Valley where the students are probably still partying over last Monday's College Football Playoff. The Tigers allow just 64.1 PPG at home, but the L3 games have seen them allow more than that YTD average (79.7). That includes an 89-86 home loss to North Carolina. Over the last week, they've lost at both Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. They lost by double digits, as 10-pt favorites, Thursday in Atlanta (at Ga Tech). Clemson fans got to cheer for one big win this week; history will not repeat itself here. 8* Virginia |
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01-13-17 | Cavs v. Kings +7 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:35 ET): Cleveland is not playing well right now, which should be readily apparent by the fact the World Champs are on a six-game ATS losing skid in the New Year. They've also lost three of those games outright, including the L2, at Utah and Portland in a set of back to backs. Before that, they struggled to put away low-level teams such as Brooklyn and Phoenix. So this has hardly been a productive road trip for LeBron and company and w/ this being the fifth game in eight days (and Golden State looming on MLK Day), even a visit to Sacramento may not turn things around. The Kings are off a win Tuesday night as they beat Detroit 100-94, a game where I cashed the Under. Take the points here. Before beating the Pistons, Sacramento was able to stay within the number against Golden State here at home. By comparison to that line (+11.5), this one appears to be too low. Unlike road-weary Cleveland, the Kings should be fine situationally as they've been off for two days and this will be their fifth straight home game (seven-game stand). At home, Sacramento has generally been competitive. They've been outscored here by only 1.0 PPG and when on two days' rest this year, they are 4-1 SU w/ a scoring margin of +8.2 PPG. Cleveland is just 4-12 ATS vs. teams w/ a losing record this year and their overall ATS record is near the bottom of the league. Part of the issue is that team defensive has fallen off a cliff this year as the Cavs are just middle of the road in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. They are giving up 104.4 PPG on the road. Even with the recent addition of Kyle Korver, depth remains a concern as this team doesn't have a backup point guard and HC Ty Lue is playing a pretty short rotation. The "Big 3" of LeBron, Love and Kyrie could very well lead the team to victory tonight, but it won't be by the margin the oddsmakers are asking for here. 8* Sacramento |
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01-13-17 | Celtics +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 103-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): The Eastern Conference has clearly taken shape w/ two teams (Cleveland, Toronto) on top and 3-4 (Brooklyn, Philly, Miami and probably Orlando) off the pace. Everyone else is bunched up in the middle. Boston was supposed to be Cleveland's top challenger this year and they are currently third. Right behind them, sitting in fourth, is Atlanta. The Hawks got off to a good start this year, but then had a terrible finish to November, leaving them treading water. But all of a sudden they've won seven straight, covering the spread in the last six. But while the Celtics can justify their place in the East pecking order, I view Atlanta as a bit overrated. Until their last game, they'd been outscored over the course of the season. The better team is getting points here. The Hawks just swept a four-game road trip, but it was hardly a daunting trip. The four teams they beat - Orlando, New Orleans, Dallas and Brooklyn - all have win percentages of .400 or below. Here at home, they did upset San Antonio on New Year's Day. But w/ New York and Detroit being the other victims, that's just one winning team out of seven opponents that the Hawks have beaten during this streak. This will be their first time playing the Celtics since eliminating them in six games in LY's playoffs. That should clearly have Boston motivated here. The C's have lost six straight times in Atlanta, but are 13-6 ATS in road games this season. Despite being a bit short-handed, Boston has won 11 of 14, the only losses being of the close variety to OKC, Cleveland and Toronto. After losing to the Raptors Tuesday, there was an immediate bounce back Wednesday at home vs. Washington. They beat the Wizards 117-108 as 5.5-pt chalk. Isaiah Thomas led the way (again) w/ 38 points as the team shot better than 50 percent from the floor. The former Hawk, Al Horford also continues to play well. Remember, it wasn't too long ago that Atlanta appeared to be in "teardown" mode as they dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. While a viable contender for one of the final playoff spots in the East, the Hawks have overachieved of late, simply taking advantage of a weak slate of games. 10* Boston |
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01-13-17 | Yale +1.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 68-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Yale (8:00 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Yale has yet to play an Ivy League game, but they come into 2017 as the co-favorite to win the conference, along w/ Princeton. Penn just played Princeton on Saturday and I faded the Quakers in that spot. Sure enough, they failed to cover as 8.5 pt dogs (lost 61-52). While they weren't blown out and close to covering, I still see value in going against the Quakers again tonight. It's telling that they still lost to Princeton despite holding the short-handed Tigers to just 34.7% shooting from the field. It's tempting to credit the Penn defense for some of the past shooting percentages we've seen from opponents, but really I don't think it's sustainable. Yale comes in shooting at a nice 46.9% clip for the season. Take the points. Now, clearly, things won't be as easy for Yale as they were their last time out. On Saturday, they took on Mitchell College and won 102-46, thanks to shooting 61.5% for the game. The Bulldogs have not played a ton of lined games this year, but three of their five SU losses this year have come at the expense of Virginia, Pitt and Temple, all of those on the road. They did cover at Pitt (lost by only 5) and then they lost by only 6 at Temple. So, it's not as if they haven't been challenged. They've also gone to Washington this year and won. So far, they have managed to outscore opponents by 8.4 points per game while ranking 15th nationally in assists per game (17.8) and shooting 39.2% from three-point range. Six players average at least nine points per game w/ five of them shooting above 40% from behind the arc. One thing is for certain and that's Yale has had Penn's number through the years. They've beaten the Quakers eight straight times (four season sweeps) and done so by an average of greater than 15 points per game. The series history only makes this line seem more curious. Offensively, Penn continues to struggle as they average only 66.9 PPG, which is 301st. They are also only 261st in rebounds per game. One has to think if their opponents start shooting better, it could be a long year for the Quakers. Yale is more than capable of shooting well. 8* Yale |
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01-12-17 | Devils +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
8* Puck Line New Jersey (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a Puck Line Play only where I'm taking the Devils +1.5. My how times have changed. It wasn't all that long ago (as in last year) where it would probably be next to impossible to get the +1.5 against the Oilers at a reasonably affordable price. But the team has somewhat taken off this year and is in playoff position. But they've also dropped two in a row and the reality of the matter is they've lost one more game than they've won this season. They've outscored opponents by only five goals over the course of the year and even on home ice, their record is just 9-8-2. New Jersey has lost three straight, all at home, including one to Edmonton. But it was a one goal difference out in East Rutherford (Oilers won 2-1 in OT). Again, I can see this one tied at the end of regulation or the Devils doing no worse than a one goal loss. They could also win! The Oilers have given up five goals in B2B games, which makes laying the 1.5 problematic for them. For all the "improvement" this year, they are just 7-12 in games against the Eastern Conference. They did outshoot the Devils 43-20 last week, but I wouldn't look for a similar discrepancy tonight. Yes, they have 117 shots total the L3 games, but can they keep that up? Probably not at the pace the Devils like to play. Furthermore, goaltending has become a concern in Alberta w/ both Cam Talbot and Jonas Gustavsson posting sub-.900 save percentages thier last four starts each. Consider that the last time the Oilers won a game by more than one goal was 12.29 and seven of their last eight victories have come by the one goal margin. That streak stretched all the way back to December 3rd. Half (nine) of their L18 games have been tied at the end of regulation. No team in the league has gotten stuck w/ the "loser's point" more than New Jersey has. They have lost eight times in either OT or a shootout. Over one-third of their games total (15 of 42) have gone past regulation. They were shutout Monday (by Florida), but do own a winning record against teams with losing records. Goaltender Corey Schneider owns a .933 save percentage his L4 starts. 8* Puck Line New Jersey (+1.5) |
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01-12-17 | Belmont v. Morehead State +4.5 | Top | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Morehead State (7:00 ET): It can't be understated what a big game this is for Morehead State as they get the best team in the Ohio Valley in their gym. At home is where all six of the Eagles victories have come this year (they're 0-8 off-campus) and they are averaging a whopping 91.4 points per game here. They've experienced a lot of close losses this year (two in overtime), but come into tonight's showdown off B2B wins over Eastern Illinois and SIU Edwardsville. Belmont is 3-0 SU already in OVC play and has won eight of nine overall. But this is the start of a tough stretch for them as they'll be playing two road games in the next three days. I "smell an upset" brewing tonight down in Kentucky. Take the points. Morehead State actually needed to rally from a slight halftime deficit to get by SIU Edwardsville in their last game. But it wound up being a 13-pt victory thanks to controlling the paint (30-22 edge in pts) and points off turnovers (19 off 22). This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it's not an embellishment to say this will likely be the biggest regular season game of the year on campus. Home court advantage has proven vital in past meetings between these two schools w/ the host team taking seven of nine. That includes both last year. Over the L2 seasons, it's been nothing but close games between the two w/ all four meetings decided by six points or less and three decided by two points or less. Again, the home team has won every time. Morehead State has lost all eight games in which it has been an underdog this season, but only one of those was here at home. That was to an East Tennessee State side that looks like it may win the SoCon. Meanwhile, Belmont has failed to cover the L2 times it has been road chalk, those games taking place at WI-Milwaukee (won by 6) and Austin Peay (won by 5). Something of concern for the Bruins is that they shoot just 25.7% from three-point range on the road. That will make it difficult to keep up w/ the high scoring Eagles, who shoot over 37% from long range overall. Until they scored 31 pts over the final 10 minutes Saturday vs. SE Missouri State, Belmont was actually trailing at home. 8* Morehead State |
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01-12-17 | La Salle v. Rhode Island -12 | Top | 87-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Rhode Island (7:00 ET): The Rams, fairly quietly, have found themselves on the fringes of the Top 25 for most of this year. However, in the latest poll (released earlier this week), they didn't even receive a single vote. That's probably due to the fact that last Friday saw them drop a home game to fellow A-10 power Dayton, 67-64. But, as I always harp on, the polls should not really be used as any reliable guide to betting College Hoops (see Baylor-WVU). URI is still a top 35 team country in my estimation (Lunardi has them in the field of 68, FWIW), which is a lot better than tonight's opponent, LaSalle, a team I've had no problem fading so far this season. I anticipate the Explorers' lack of defense will cost them another A-10 affair tonight. Lay the points. Ironically, the last time I played against LaSalle, it was a poor effort at the offensive end that cost them. On December 30th, they were held to a season-low 55 points on 36% shooting as they lost at Dayton, 66-55. I'd previously played against them in a visit to Georgetown and there they allowed 93 pts in another double digit road loss. Defense has been the primary concern for the Explorers, even though they've responded w/ B2B wins since losing to Dayton. In the last game, as 11.5-pt home faves, they still allowed 81 points in a narrow win over Duquense. Their other win was against St. Louis. Safe to say, that those two wins came against two of the bottom three in the A-10 (along w/ Fordham). Not only is LaSalle allowing its opponents to shoot 47.3% from the floor overall, including 40% from three-point range, but they are giving up a ghastly 86.5 PPG away from home as well! Rhode Island has dominated LaSalle the last two seasons, winning all four matchups. Three of the wins have been by double digits. At home this year, the Rams are unbeaten (8-0!), winning by an average margin 18.1 PPG. Defensively, they are stout, holding teams to just 64.2 PPG overall. Off the loss to Dayton, I expect this team to be fired up to take the floor tonight. They turned the ball over 17 times vs. Dayton, costing them a game they led for most of the first 28 minutes. This is also the best offensive team in terms of points per possession in the A-10. 10* Rhode Island |
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01-11-17 | Illinois State v. Southern Illinois +6 | Top | 60-53 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Southern Illinois (8:00 ET): I'm always a bit cautious when it comes to taking a team off an upset victory. Here, Southern Illinois did just go on the road and beat Missouri State 75-67 - as 9-pt underdogs - on Saturday. But the Salukis are returning to Carbondale for tonight's tilt w/ in-state rival Illinois State. Taking points again, I believe they're a strong value. This is ISU's second consecutive road game as they too are off a win; 77-58 at Indiana State. But make no mistake about it; Larry Bird wasn't playing for the Sycamores on Saturday. Illinois State may still be unbeaten in MVC play (4-0 SU), but they have a giant lookahead to conference heavyweight Wichita State (whom they get at home) on Saturday. Take the points here. Interestingly enough, Southern Illinois beat Missouri State by a wider margin on the road than Illinois State did at home. Missouri State is a "middle of the road" team in the MVC, so they can serve as somewhat of a good barometer. Illinois State played them first, winning 74-71 (as eight-point favorites) at home, but needed overtime. That's one of only two games out of the last nine that the Redbirds have failed to cover. Three days later saw SIU go to Missouri State and record an upset. That was the Salukis' third straight win, so they come in hot as well. What was most impressive about Southern Illinois' performance on Saturday is that they took the lead five minutes into the game and never relinquished it. Now Illinois State was definitely impressive Saturday as well. Led by a career-best 31 pts from MiKyle McIntosh, the Redbirds routed Indiana State w/ a dominant first half performance (led 47-24 at the break). But I wouldn't look for them to go 13 of 25 from three-point range again here. While the Redbirds are ninth nationally in field goal percentage defense, they will have to contend w/ a SIU team that is averaging 78.6 PPG at home. The Salukis are 8-2 SU in Carbondale so far, covering five of their six lined games here. They've also done their own strong job on the defensive end, particularly at converting opponents' turnovers into points. In seven straight games, they've scored at least 12 pts off TO's! 10* Southern Illinois |
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01-11-17 | Dayton v. Massachusetts +6 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (7:00 ET): Dayton is a team some might consider worthy of Top 25 consideration as they have only three losses, all of them by four points or less. But I believe them to be a tad bit overvalued for tonight's venture into UMass. The Flyers are indeed "flying high" off five straight victories, the last four of which have also resulted in covers. Friday saw them down a good Rhode Island team, 67-64, as a short home dog. But this is just their third "true" road game so far and UMass will be a lot tougher than St. Bonaventure was at the start of the month. UMass will also be a desperate bunch as they've lost three straight, the last two coming on the road to George Mason and VCU. Take the points. Prior to this three-game losing skid that they're currently on, UMass had been playing pretty well. They were 10-3 SU going into the final game of 2016, which wound up being an outright home loss to St. Bonaventure. The Minutemen were two-point favorites there and have since lost as underdogs at George Mason (86-81) and VCU (81-64). Dayton signifies a drop in class from VCU and they're getting them in Amherst, so this should be an easier game for the Minutemen. It also shapes up almost as a "must-win" since this weekend sees them traveling to Rhode Island, another game where they'll be an underdog. I'm sure the upperclassmen remember LY's lone meeting w/ Dayton, a road game which resulted in a 30-point loss. Revenge! Dayton shot "lights out" in that lone meeting last season, finishing at 56% from the field, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. I certainly would not expect any kind of repeat of those numbers tonight. The Flyers were kind to me back on 12.30, beating LaSalle 66-55, ironically "doing it w/ defense" against an Explorers team that is really bad defensively. Since then, they've ripped St. Bonaventure for 90 points and then came the three-point win over Rhode Island. But consider they trailed the Rhodies for the first 32 minutes of that contest. While Dayton may still unbeaten in A-10 play, UMass is 4-2 ATS as a underdog this season. 8* Massachusetts |
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01-10-17 | Hawks v. Nets +7.5 | 117-97 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): It takes a lot to get me to endorse the Nets, but getting this many points against a mediocre Atlanta outfit is enough to justify a play. Over the last week, there seems to be a real 180 degree turn in philosophy by the Hawks' franchise. Last week, they were putting their best player (Paul Milsap) on the market and also dealt Kyle Korver to Cleveland. But a four-game win streak seems to have changed management's idea of being "sellers" at the deadline. While they can't bring Korver back, Milsap has reportedly been taken off the market. But while the team may now find itself in fourth place in the Eastern Conference, I still look at a team w/ an efficiency rating of 0.0 as pretty pedestrian and a good fade as a road favorite. So take the points. Brooklyn should be motivated here as they're off an embarrassing home loss to Philadelphia Sunday afternoon. While the final score says they lost by 10, they were actually up 11 at the start of the second half. Being outscored 32-16 in the third quarter was the key to the entire game as they held the Sixers below 40% shooting overall. That being the Nets' sixth straight loss aside, the team has actually been competitive here at Barclays Center w/ a 10-8 ATS record (7-11 straight up). They demonstrated that competitiveness by hanging with Cleveland Friday night, losing that game by only eight as 13.5-pt dogs. While the Nets have only one win in the L12 games overall, it was at home (against Charlotte) in almost the exact same price range as tonight. Atlanta is looking to complete a perfect road trip here, but let's not go congratulating them too much, okay? The three teams they've beaten so far on the trip are: Orlando, New Orleans and Dallas. They did upset San Antonio, at home, on New Year's Day. But that win and the one in New Orleans both came by five points or less. There have been two previous times this season where the Hawks have been coming off three consecutive road games and both instances saw them lose the game and fail to cover. Without Korver, this team will be unable to maintain its' hot 40%+ shooting from three-point range that we've seen in the L6 games. 8* Brooklyn |
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01-10-17 | Eastern Michigan -1.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 81-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:00 ET): At first glance, Eastern Michigan hardly seems like an ideal candidate to lay points with, even a short number like this one, on the road. The Eagles are just 2-5 SU outside of Ypsilanti this season and just dropped a game there, as 7.5-pt favorites, to Buffalo on Saturday. But here they'll be faced w/ a team outside of the top 200 nationally and that's Bowling Green. The Falcons seem to be flying high off an upset of Ball State (in Muncie) on Saturday, but tonight promises to be a crash landing of sorts. Eastern Michigan will have revenge on its mind for losing LY in Ypsilanti - as 8.5-pt chalk - to the Falcons. That was a game where they dug too large a hole early (trailed by 11 at the half) to climb out of. Prior to the loss Sunday, EMU had won three straight, all by 22 points or greater. Granted, all those games were at home. But they've actually already covered as road chalk once this year, laying a much bigger number in fact, at Detroit. As a favorite, the Eagles are 4-1 ATS this season and won 20 of 27 straight up the L3 seasons. So what went wrong Saturday? Well, for starters, they shot the ball poorly (only 36.8%). For the season, this is a team connecting at above a 45% clip. The Eagles did lead for a good portion of the game Saturday before succumbing to a late Buffalo run. It also didn't help that as the home team, EMU attempted less FT's than did Buffalo. I expect the Eagles to play better tonight. After all, this is a top 25 scoring offense in the country at 83.8 PPG. Bowling Green pulled the upset at Ball State on Saturday as they were able to rally from a halftime deficit. Attempting 11 more free throws certainly helped. That kind of margin is certainly unusual for the road team. Also, Ball State was an abysmal 4 of 25 from three-point range. The Falcons' defense does do a good job at turning their opponents over, but EMU won't be shooting anywhere near that poorly here tonight. In fact, if anything, it will be the Eagles' trademark 2-3 zone that should "rule the day" defensively. Consider that Eastern Michigan was a nine-point favorite AT Detroit while BGSU was asked to lay the same number here at home. Not sure why the linesmakers' discrepancy has grown so much tighter in less than a month, but take advantage and lay the very short number. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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01-10-17 | Baylor v. West Virginia -5.5 | 68-89 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): Baylor may be unbeaten and the new "#1" in the country. Kansas may be the standard-bearer of excellence in the conference. But, for my money, West Virginia is the best team in the Big 12 this year and I'm on 'em again Tuesday night in Morgantown. Though they failed to cover Saturday (by one-half point) here against TCU, it was still a nice bounce back from Bob Huggins' Mountaineers after suffering just their second loss of the season the game previous (at Texas Tech). As you can tell, the oddsmakers have little respect for the pollsters here as they've installed the supposed "#1 team in the country" as an underdog. They are correct in doing so. Lay the points. Here at home, WVU is 9-0 SU this season (33-5 SU L38), winning by an average margin of 36.1 points per game. They only beat TCU by 12 on Saturday, but led the entire way (by 11 at half). What cost them the cover was a second half swoon where the Horned Frogs went from 13 down to tie the game. But, in the end, Huggins will take it. His trademark press forced TCU into a season-high in turnovers (18), which is the norm for WVU opponents. Last year, in a home and home sweep of Baylor, the Mountaineers surprisingly only forced 24 turnovers in the two games. But they held the Bears to 37% shooting and won both games by 11 points anyway. I don't think anybody - besides the pollsters - really thinks Baylor is the top team in America. In fact, they are not even in my top five. Remember, coming into the year, they were picked to finish fifth - in the Big 12 - by those who supposedly know the conference. Their ascension from being unranked to #1 in the polls is impressive, but also greatly aided by the fact they've played just one "true" road game thus far, that being at Oklahoma, who is the weakest team in the league. They did win in Norman by 16, but since then it's been a pair of narrow victories, by two over Iowa State and by four vs. Oklahoma State, both at home. Kansas came into Morgantown ranked #1 in the country last year and lost. Also, WVU just destroyed the same Oklahoma State team - by 17 - in Stillwater. 8* West Virginia |
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01-09-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -4.5 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): It's pretty shocking (at least to me!) that through 37 games, the T'wolves have the exact same record as do the Mavericks (11-26 SU). IMO, Minnesota has been the better team all season. Unfortunately for them, they have been unable to close out games and while the "future is bright" here, it's clear that making the playoffs is not a realistic goal, until next season. That said, I do feel that at home the T'wolves should be able to handle the Mavs tonight. Dallas came up short in what I thought would be an advantageous spot, at home vs. Atlanta Sat night, which says a lot about the current state of this team. They are not good on the road by the way; 4-15 SU getting outscored by over eight points per game. Minnesota has been a money loser when favored (5-10 ATS) this season and their inability to string together any kind of win streak (only won B2B games once!) is largely what's doomed them. They come into tonight on a four-game losing streak, two of those losses coming by just two points. However, they did cover Saturday night in Utah, improving to 6-1 ATS when on a losing streak of 3+ games. However, to players and fans, that's a Pyrrhic victory as the team blew an 11-pt lead by scoring only 12 pts in the fourth quarter. Tonight, they not only snap the losing streak, but they cover the spread w/ room to spare. I still have faith in HC Tom Thibodeau to turn this thing around as he has THREE 20+ pt scorers - Karl Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine. Dallas has not been healthy for much of this season. But even though they are now, they've still lost three of four, including an ugly 82-point effort Saturday at home vs. Atlanta. That followed an outright loss (again at home) to Phoenix. This is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league and on the road they average only 94.2 points per game. Saturday marked the sixth time this year that they've scored 85 points or less. They are 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS off the previous five. This is a big revenge game for the T'wolves as well as they lost all four H2H meetings vs. Dallas last season. 8* Minnesota |
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01-09-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern -7.5 | Top | 79-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): This is a triple revenge spot for Ga Southern, who lost three times (including Sun Belt tourney) to South Alabama last year. Plus, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot for USA, who I would rate as the worst overall team in the league. That combination of factors has me laying the points Monday night. Ga Southern has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Winthrop (a game they were NOT expected to win) by two points. Meanwhile, South Alabama is coming off B2B one-point games, the last being a 78-77 loss to Georgia State on Saturday that will prove difficult to get over. While South Alabama should end up residing at the bottom of the Sun Belt, Ga Southern should end up being close to the top. Right now, I'd consider them third in the pecking order, behind only UL Lafayette and TX-Arlington. Saturday saw them down Troy here at home, 86-82, as 5.5-pt favorites. That failure to cover, I believe, has created some value for this matchup. It's certainly not a bad situation as this will be the Eagles' fourth consecutive home game. Having to go on the road for two next weekend (UL Lafayette, UL Monroe), I'd say it's pretty imperative for the Eagles to take care of business here. Though they failed to cover against Troy, they did lead the entire second half, typically by more than what the oddsmakers were asking for. They did so despite going only 7 of 29 from three-point range. By the way, in five home games so far, the Eagles are averaging 90.8 points per game! South Alabama really let one get away on Saturday as they allowed Georgia State to score the game's final eight points en route to coming out on the losing end, 78-77. That result is a "bitter pill to swallow" and like I said earlier, will be difficult to get over. Of course, GSU won't be lacking for motivation here as LY's three losses to USA all came by six points or fewer. The Eagles shot poorly, as in below 37% overall, in all three games. This year's squad is much improved though and is 17-5 SU L22 Sun Belt home games. South Alabama has just two road wins thus far (lost at Stetson), one of them coming against a terrible Southern Miss team. Other than at Minnesota, Ga Southern really hasn't played a bad game this year as three of their six losses have been by three points or less. This is only their third game in the last 19 days (rested!) and I like how they defend the three-point line (opponents shooting only 30.3% against them at home). USA is shooting less than 30% from behind the arc for the year. 8* Georgia Southern |
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01-08-17 | Oakland v. Illinois-Chicago +9 | Top | 58-57 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
8* Illinois-Chicago (5:00 ET): This would be a classic letdown spot for favored Oakland, playing its second road game in three days and off an outright upset of fellow Horizon heavyweight Valparaiso. Make no mistake about; the Golden Grizzlies have been an incredibly successful money-maker at the betting window, covering over two-thirds of their games the L3 seasons, including the last four. But this is a pretty big number to be caught laying given the circumstances. UIC is playing its sixth straight home game and had no issue w/ Detroit on Friday, winning and covering that game 78-64 as seven-point favorites. Take the points. Oakland can now claim to be the Horizon League favorite due to the win at Valpo. The key was taking what was a four-point halftime lead and stretching it to 15 just 3:30 into the second half. From that point forward, Valpo never got closer than five. But the Golden Grizzlies are now dealing with the burden of having to win by a certain margin. Granted, they've eclipsed it three straight times, but playing the second time on the road in three days is tough regardless of who you are and what conference you play in. Yes, this team can score in bunches and is 24-9 ATS its L33 road games. But there's a juncture when we reach a "tipping point," and for Oakland today is that time. Will they really win a fourth straight league game by double digits? UIC has some "momentum" (hate that word!) after shooting a blistering 57.8% from the floor in the 78-64 win over Detroit. Will the Flames match that percentage here? Not likely, but they do lead all Horizon League teams w/ a 47.2 field goal percentage. Thus, I think they can keep pace w/ the high powered Golden Grizzlies. UIC's home split, in terms of points scored vs. allowed, is roughly the same as Oakland's on the road. Coming off a conference win, the Flames are 8-1 ATS the L3 seasons. While they've lost the last four regular season matchups to Oakland, the Flames did upset them in the 2015 Conference Tourney. I just think that this line is too high. 8* Illinois-Chicago |
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01-08-17 | Giants v. Packers -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (4:40 ET): Twice during the Tom Coughlin era (2007, 2011), the Giants made somewhat improbable Super Bowl runs. Both times saw them have to go through a heavily favored Packers team - on the road - to get there. Including that pair of outright playoff victories, the G-Men have covered five straight times against the Pack. Only three of those have come against Aaron Rodgers, however, and the last time was Week 5 of this year, a game they lost 23-16 (but just barely covered as 7.5-pt dogs). This time around, GB isn't so heavily favored and I think we can take advantage of that as this looks to be the hottest team in the league right now East of New England. Lay the points. The Packers enter the playoffs riding a six-game win streak. For the first 10 weeks of the season, Rodgers looked shockingly ordinary, but that's all changed now. Over the L4 games, the offense has averaged just over 34 points per game. Yes, the Giants defense has improved tremendously this year, but it's hardly been a "murderer's row" of QB's that they've had to face. The only "Pro Bow-level" QB that they've had to face the L8 games was Ben Roethlisberger and not surprisingly that was the game they gave up the most points (24) and also lost. Going back to Week 11, Rodgers has completed almost 70 percent of his passes at 8.47 yards per attempt w/ a 15-0 TD-INT ratio. Overall, the Pack have turned the ball over just one time during the six-game win streak. While not as lucky to make the playoffs as the Texans, Lions or Dolphins, I view the Giants as a "lucky" team nonetheless. For instance, they actually won two games this year despite having a -3 turnover ratio. The rest of the league was just 2-43 SU in such affairs. Flipping the script from past years, they also performed well in "close games," going 8-3 SU in those decided by seven points or less. One of the losses was against the Packers, 23-16, and they were actually outgained in that game by almost a 2:1 margin (406-219). With Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr, you'd expect this offense to be good, but they were not as they failed to score even 20 points in any of the last five games and in fact scored more than 22 in only four games all season! The fact that we're getting a lower line on the Packers vs. the same opponent they beat earlier in the year - at a time they're playing much better - is a steal in my book. Note they actually led New York 23-9 until a garbage time TD in that reg season matchup as well, so the game was not really as close as the final score might seem to indicate. Watch out for Tight End Jared Cook in this game as well. 10* Green Bay |
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01-07-17 | Hawks v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 97-82 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): I don't have a ton of respect for Atlanta right now, particularly in the road favorite role. That's even when matched up against one of the worst teams in the league as they are tonight. Earlier in the week, they did go to Orlando and blow out the Magic as short chalk. Then they followed that up w/ a win at New Orleans (as 2-pt dogs), 99-94. Overall, the Hawks have won four in a row, including a win over San Antonio (at home). So why don't I respect them that much? Well, a potential teardown has begun w/ the trade of Kyle Korver to Cleveland. Though the Hawks have a winning record (20-16 SU), they've been outscored this season and still sport a negative efficiency rating as well. Take the points here. Now Dallas is admittedly a lot worse off than Atlanta. The Mavs have definitely fallen on "hard times" w/ their 11-25 SU record, which includes an outright loss here at home to Phoenix two nights ago. That was a rare time that this team was favored. They also actually closed as the slightest (1-pt) of faves against Washington the game previous when they did win SU, 113-105 here in 'Big D.' Being favored by the amount they were against the Suns doesn't suit this team well, but thankfully no margin of victory is being required here. It's shocking that prior to the last two games, Dallas had been favored only ONE time previously all season! This is the Mavs' third straight home game while it is the Hawks' third straight road game (in four nights, no less). Therefore, situationally, things set up better for Dallas here. Something to take note of w/ the Mavs of late is that their offensive efficiency has been way up. There was a time they actually ranked last in the league in that department. But now, they are "up" to 23rd w/ the exact same rating as Atlanta. Some of that is due to Dirk Nowitzki being back. The Hawks average less than 100 PPG on the road this year and impending moves by the front office are likely to kill morale. 10* Dallas |
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01-07-17 | Lions v. Seahawks -8 | Top | 6-26 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:15 ET): Having finished the regular season 9-7 SU, the Detroit Lions did indeed make the playoffs. But, by any objective measure, this is simply not a very good football team. They were both outscored and outgained over the course of the season, which is indicative of sub-.500 level play. In only one of their nine victories (a 28-13 win at New Orleans in Wk 13) did they not need a 4Q comeback. In fact, in every game but that 28-13 win at New Orleans, they trailed at some point in the fourth quarter! Their eight come from behind victories in the 4Q set a new NFL record! Of course, since that one wire-to-wire victory over the Saints, they have not covered a game (0-4 ATS) and ended the regular season on a three-game SU losing streak. Now - for a second straight game - they are playing on a short week, in Seattle no less, which is the toughest venue for visiting teams in the league and it's a primetime game to boot (which tend to favor the Pacific Time Zone team). Lay the points in this Wild Card matchup. Now, I'm not as high right now on Seattle as I've been going into the playoffs in recent years. The loss of safety Earl Thomas figures to catch up w/ them, particularly if matched up against Matt Ryan and Atlanta next week. But Matt Stafford and the Lions' offense simply lack the horses to take advantage. This edition of the Seahawks may not be as strong as recent years, but they still outgained opponents by over 40 YPG and finished w/ the sixth best point differential in the league. They were also second in the league in yards per play differential. Here at home, even w/ the loss to Arizona two weeks ago, they still outscored opponents by an average of 11.4 PPG at home. By the way, the Lions lost all five games against playoff teams this year. Every loss came by at least a touchdown and generally speaking, they weren't that competitive in any of them. The franchise is also 0-7 SU in the playoffs since a Barry Sanders-led squad reached the NFC Title Game in '91. They're 1-5-1 ATS in those games as well. The Detroit offense is basically one-dimensional as they rank 30th in the league in rush yards at just 81.9 YPG. Good luck running on a Seahawks defense that is among the top seven in stopping the run. The Seahawks' pass defense may not be what it was w/ Thomas in there, but I don't see the Lions taking advantage as Stafford has regressed significantly since injuring his finger back in Week 14. On the other side of the ball, the Lions defense is very overrated. They got gashed badly over the L2 weeks (by Dallas & Green Bay) and actually finished dead last in DVOA (the metric used by the indispensable Football Outsiders). Russell Wilson will take advantage of that and it's also worth noting the Lions' defense did not force a single turnover the L4 weeks. 10* Seattle |
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01-07-17 | Raptors -2 v. Bulls | Top | 118-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:05 ET): The Bulls have pulled off back to back minor upsets, but I won't give them much credit for beating Cleveland on Wednesday as both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love were out. Prior to that win and one over Charlotte (at home), Chicago had gone just 2-5 straight up and 1-6 against the spread their previous seven games. Tonight, they host another Eastern Conference heavyweight, that being Toronto. Surprising to some is the fact the Raptors are tops in the conference in both YTD point differential and efficiency rating. I was absolutely shocked to learn that the Raptors are 0-8 SU and ATS vs. the Bulls the L2 seasons. That is absolutely not indicative of respective overall performance during that time. Toronto snaps this shocking losing streak tonight! Led by Kyle Lowry's 33 points and five assists, the Raptors beat a good Jazz team Thursday night, 101-93 as 5.5-point chalk. It was a nice bounce back for them after getting dismantled by San Antonio two nights earlier. Having played Golden State, San Antonio and Utah all in the L5 games, the Bulls represent a drop in class in terms of opponent for Toronto. It has been the offense that has carried the Raptors this year; only the Warriors rank higher in efficiency. They are third in the league in 3-point field goal percentage. They are averaging 110 PPG overall. Those kind of numbers are simply too much for a Bulls team that is simply average overall and is 19th in offensive efficiency. Two of the Bulls' four wins over the Raptors last year came by only two points (both in Toronto). Chicago's strong start to this season caught me by surprise, but predictably they've begun to regress. There are rumors that Jimmy Butler may be dealt and that HC Fred Hoiberg's job is not secure. I just don't like the way this team is presently constructed. Meanwhile, this will be perhaps the strongest Raptors team that has ever come to the Windy City. Only the Warriors and Spurs have a better win percentage in games decided by double digits compared to Toronto's 13-2 record. They are an Eastern Conference best 22-12 ATS overall this year and Chicago is 11-21 ATS off a SU dog win. 10* Toronto |
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01-07-17 | Pennsylvania v. Princeton -6.5 | Top | 52-61 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Princeton (7:00 ET): Exams may be over with in the Ivy League, but for Penn, there's perhaps a greater challenge in front of them. That would be tonight's conference opener, which calls for a trip to league favorite Princeton. It's believed to be a "two-horse race" in the Ivy this year (Princeton and Yale), so pretty much disregard the fact that both of these schools come in riding three-game win streaks. I was a bit surprised to find that Penn has had plenty of ATS success at Princeton's expense through the years (25-12 ATS L37 meetings, including 15-4 on the road). Both of LY's matchups were decided by two points or less (Princeton won both). But I don't like the Quakers getting such a short number this time around. Princeton ended it's non-conference slate on New Year's Eve by destroying Cal Poly 81-52. (My goodness, the Big West is bad!). That was the Tigers' second blowout win in a row at home as they had handled Hampton 77-49 just three days earlier (allowed only 16 second half points!). Including those victories, they are now outscoring visiting teams by 27.8 points per game at home this year. It was the offense that carried Princeton against Cal Poly as they shot a ridiculous 56% from the field. Will they match that here? Probably not, but I don't think they have to. Not w/ a defense that has held those last two opponents to just 34.1 and 36.4% respectively. I don't see Penn having much offensive success in this game. Penn was able to beat Fairfield on 12.30 despite starting the game 0 for 11 from three-point range! Of course, it helped that Fairfield shot a miserable 33% for the entire game themselves. The Quakers trailed at the half that last game, but were really lucky that Fairfield was an absolutely atrocious 13 of 40 on two-point attempts. Really, the Quakers have consistently benefited from awful shooting from their opponents this season. That won't happen here. This should be a double digit spread. 10* Princeton |
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01-07-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Louisiana Tech -16 | Top | 69-68 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
10* Louisiana Tech (7:00 ET): Taking inventory of Conference USA, you can expect Louisiana Tech to finish at or near the top of the league this year while UT-San Antonio should reside at the bottom. There's a pretty sizable gap between the top and bottom of this large league, one that's not being accounted enough for by the linesmakers tonight in Ruston. La Tech enters this game having won five of six w/ their lone loss coming by a single point to Fla Gulf Coast (remember them?). Meanwhile, UTSA is off an awful loss to fellow C-USA lightweight Southern Miss (77-59 as 2-pt road chalk). That same Southern Miss team lost to La Tech by 24 at home the game previous. Lay the points here in what should be an absolute blowout. La Tech will be the top challenger to Middle Tennessee this year for league bragging rights. They don't play the Blue Raiders until the end of the month, so between now and then there's a chance to rack up a ton of victories. The Bulldogs' last four victories have all come by at least 20 points. They've dominated opponents here in Ruston, going 9-1 SU while winning by an average margin of 23.8 points per game. Again, that one loss came by a single point. Did I mention they'll be hosting a team that's 0-9 SU away from home and averaging only 62.4 PPG in such affairs? Oh, I hadn't? Well, that's the case. The average MOV in La Tech's 4-0 sweep of UTSA the L2 season has been 11.25 PPG. But the discrepancy between the two schools is as great as it's ever been right now. That winless record away from home didn't stop the oddsmakers from favoring UTSA at Southern Miss (who is admittedly terrible) on Thursday. I can't overstate what a bad loss that was for the Roadrunners, however. Southern Miss had lost its previous nine games and was down eight at halftime. But in the second half UTSA was outscored by 26! Now they have to face a team that is shooting 51% for the year at home and has held three straight opponents around 33% shooting overall! La Tech's 64-44 beatdown over UTEP is indicative of what to expect here, only the beatdown should be more severe. UTEP was held to just 19 second half points. 10* Louisiana Tech |
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01-07-17 | TCU v. West Virginia -13 | Top | 70-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (1:00 ET): Not all 12-2 teams are "created equal" and that's certainly the case in this Big 12 matchup Saturday afternoon. West Virginia may have been stunned Tuesday night in Lubbock (lost 77-76 to Texas Tech), but that didn't change my view that they are one of the top teams in the country. They came into the week underrated by the pollsters (only 7th??) and should bounce back in a major way here in Morgantown. The hype will say TCU is "much improved" in 2017, but I still remember the Horned Frogs losing every Big 12 road game LY. They were 0-3 overall vs. WVU in 2015-16, including a 31-point loss in Morgantown. This will be only TCU's third "true" road game of this season. Lay the points. West Virginia's two losses this year have come by a combined five points. Tuesday's loss to Texas Tech, a back and forth affair the whole way, went to overtime. The issue was they allowed the Red Raiders to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 7 of 13 from three-point range. The trademark pressure we're accustomed to seeing from the Mountaineers also failed to produce the requisite number of turnovers (13). Plus, it didn't help that they went only 13 of 24 from the FT line in a one-point loss. A return to Morgantown would seem to be "just what the doctor ordered" though. They're 8-0 SU in home games so far, winning by an incredible margin of 39.1 points per game! Don't be worried about the number either as WVU is 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons laying 12.5 or more points here on their home floor. TCU is 0-9 SU (2-7 ATS) as WVU's conference rival including the three losses (by a combined 59 pts) last season. Clearly, HC Jamie Dixon was a great hire as is evident by him getting Jaylen Fisher (highest rated signee EVER for the program!) and completely turning over the roster in less than one year's time. But you have to be concerned about such a young team going into this environment. Not only have the Horned Frogs turned the ball over a total of 31 times the L2 games, this will clearly be the most hostile environment they've stumbled into yet. They've already lost at SMU by double digits. Granted, the only other loss was to Kansas (no shame there), but it is this game that shapes up as the young team's toughest to date. 8* West Virginia |
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01-06-17 | Kent State v. Ohio -7 | 67-85 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
8* Ohio (9:00 ET): We have a Mid-American Conference matchup Friday night in Athens. Some may be "scratching their heads" over the fact that one team is a notable favorite over the other in a seemingly even matchup. But not I. The favorite here (Ohio) has lost only three times all season, two of those coming by four points or less. They are a dominant 8-0 SU here in Athens, winning by an average margin of 18.3 points per game. In comes a Kent team that comes off a "flashy" (pun intended!) 100-pt effort in its last game and an outright upset of Texas (on the road) before that. But let us not forget that this team also lost at Oregon State as well. This game will be broadcast on ESPNU, so it will be a big deal to the faithful in Athens w/ the students having just returned from winter break. Lay the points. Ohio is in off a dominant performance on Tuesday as the blew out Western Michigan, 89-58 as 10-point home favorites. The Bobcats continued their sharp shooting from three-point range by going 16 of 31 from behind the arc. This was one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country LY (23rd) and they hold that same exact same rating nationally coming into tonight's contest. Defensively, they are much improved from a year ago and just held WMU to 33% shooting. For the season, they are allowing only 65.5 PPG (top 60) and are tops among MAC schools by holding opponents to just 39.6% shooting overall. Offensively, they are led by reigning MAC Player of the Year Antonio Campbell, but have three other double digit scorers as well. The Bobcats are 32-10 SU under third year HC Saul Phillips here at home. Kent, as I mentioned, scored 100 pts in its last game. That was due to them setting a MAC record by going 31 of 31 from the free throw line. They can't count on doing that again, especially on the road. It was free throws that took a game that was tied w/ just over 13 minutes to go and made it a comfortable win for the Golden Flashes. They lost LY here in Athens by 11, shooting only 38.6% from the floor. I would not expect shooting to improve much here as the team is last in the conference in FG% (42.3) and 11th from 3-pt range (31.9%). Kent also struggles defending the arc, letting opponents hit over 35%. For the second year in a row, I like Ohio to down their MAC East rival in Friday night home game on ESPNU. 8* Ohio |
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01-06-17 | Rockets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Houston (7:05 ET): While you do have to be leery about a potential letdown from a team off the kind of win the Rockets had last night over Oklahoma City, something I continue to harp on is the fact that NBA teams playing in the second game of a back to back are consistently being undervalued. It's only natural for the linesmakers to shade lines accordingly, but more often that not, they are overreacting to the lack of rest. Case in point; last night's play on Charlotte over Detroit where the Hornets covered (and almost won SU). It's a little different here w/ Houston being favored, but the bottom line is that they are significantly better than Orlando and this line should be several points higher. In what was hyped as a tremendous individual battle between James Harden and Russell Westbrook, the former's team came out on top last night. Houston beat OKC 118-116, failing to cover as 8.5-pt chalk (Thunder were in the second game of a back to back, by the way), but the final was a bit misleading considering the Rockets led by 18 in the third quarter. Harden led the way w/ 26 points, fewer than Westbrook scored, but "The Beard" has the better supporting cast right now and it showed. Certainly, the Rockets' supporting cast should be able to outshine their Magic counterparts tonight. As expected, this offense has really taken off under HC Mike D'Antoni, averaging 114.6 points per game (second most) and ranking third in efficiency. Only the Warriors are ahead of them in both categories. This has also been a profitable team to bet on this year as they rank #1 in the league at the betting window w/ a 24-13 ATS record. That includes 14-5 on the road and 14-3 against teams w/ losing records. They are a perfect 8-0 SU (6-2 ATS) in the second game of a back to back. Orlando, meanwhile, is off somewhat ugly 19-point home loss to Atlanta on Wednesday. They were close for basically three quarters, but they could not stop the Hawks from making baskets late. They allowed 54.3% shooting for the game and 33 fourth quarter points. Those kind of numbers are bad news when facing this kind of offense. It's especially concerning that the Magic are allowing teams to shoot 37.2% from three-point range here at home this season. The Rockets should have no problem exploiting that. On offense, the Magic simply don't score enough (97.1 PPG at home) to keep pace here. 10* Houston |
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01-05-17 | Hornets +4 v. Pistons | 114-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The belief that teams will suffer in the second game of a back to back more often that not leads to them being undervalued and it certainly appears as if that's the case tonight w/ the Hornets. Granted, you do have to be a bit leery on how a team will respond off a big win like the one Charlotte had last night (at home) vs. Oklahoma City. But I see no reason why this team should be an underdog against a Detroit side that is on the verge of implosion, even out on the road. Even after factoring in home court advantage, the Pistons are clearly not the better team here and given their recent struggles (which I know all too well!), it's difficult to endorse them at all right now. Take the points. The Pistons have lost 8 of 10 overall following a 121-116 defeat at the hands of Indiana Tuesday night. That loss took place here at The Palace and saw team defense be virtually non-existent as they allowed 36 first quarter points. From there, Indiana went onto shoot 58.1% for the game including 9 of 16 from three-point range. It also didn't help that - at home - Detroit faced a -18 disadvantage in FT attempts. At this point, I have to wonder if the team is tuning out HC Stan Van Gundy. I like SVG a lot, but his act his worn thin at every stop in his career. In this 2-8 SU stretch, one of the team's wins was a fortunate spot against Cleveland (playing w/o LeBron) the day after X-Mas. Overall, the defensive numbers still look good, but they've given up 119 or more points three times in the last six games. Charlotte just scored 123 last night on a good Oklahoma City defense and is averaging over 110 PPG over their last five contests. In other words, this hardly sounds like an ideal matchup for the slumping Pistons. These teams did split a pair of games in Charlotte earlier this season. But I think what most fail to realize is how respected this Hornets team traditionally is by the marketplace. They've only been an underdog in six of their 36 games! They will be a top five team (at worst) in the East by season's end. They're definitely the better team here and if they don't win outright, it will be loss by a smaller margin than what the line is calling for. 8* Charlotte |
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01-05-17 | James Madison v. Hofstra -7.5 | 62-54 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show | |
Hofstra has played an incredible amount of close games so far, in fact, six have been decided by four points or less. That includes the last two times we've seen them. Saturday at Delaware, they came out on the winning end, 58-56, thanks to a couple of made free throws in the final minute. That was not a pretty offensive game from either side, but Hofstra still led most of the way. There was a ton more offense Monday night when they hosted William & Mary and the game went into overtime. Unfortunately for the Pride, the Tribe hit a buzzer-beater in overtime (from NBA 3-pt range) to win there, 95-93. It was just the second loss in six home games for Hofstra thus far. Despite the heartbreaking loss earlier in the week, I see Hofstra responding w/ a big win tonight. As alluded to earlier, the team will not be lacking for motivation. They have lost four straight regular season meetings to James Madison, but did beat them in the 2015 CAA Tournament. Both of last year's games went into overtime. This is probably the weakest team JMU has brought to Hempstead in some time as the Dukes are just 4-11 SU, including 2-7 ATS as an underdog, 1-5 on the road. This will be their first road game since a double digit loss on December 17th at Appalachian State. They'll have to deal w/ a Hofstra team averaging 85.2 PPG at home this year. So far in CAA play, we've seen JMU shoot better than 55% against Drexel and hold Towson to 32% shooting. I seriously doubt that they'll be so fortunate to hit either of those percentages tonight being that this is a roadie. Lay the points. 8* Hofstra |
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01-05-17 | East Tennessee State v. The Citadel +13.5 | Top | 115-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
10* The Citadel (7:00 ET): Let's not kid ourselves. The Citadel is not a very good basketball team. But the Bulldogs have enough going for them right now (off an outright win!) and getting enough points to make this Southern Conference matchup w/ East Tenn State more interesting than expected. Remember, I'm off a big win in the SoCon earlier in the week as UNC Greensboro upset league favorite Chattanooga. While The Citadel is more than likely to end up finishing at the bottom of the league by season's end, they've already proven they can hang by going 3-0 ATS against conference opponents thus far. That includes an upset of Wofford (as 15-point dogs), on the road, their last time out. Take the points here. East Tennessee State is considered by many to be the second best team in the SoCon. However, the Buccaneers have played only one conference foe to date and that was VMI, the weakest of the lot. Predictably, that one went quite well for them as they romped to a 102-75 victory. We can probably expect a ton of points in this game (more on that in a moment), so the question remains: can ETSU score enough to cover this large of a spread? I think not, at least out on the road. Averaging 80.6 PPG is impressive, but as you're about to see, that likely won't be nearly enough to get the job done here. This team has only one double digit scorer (TJ Cromer) and another player (Julian Walters) just left the program last week. The Citadel both averages and allows 100+ PPG. I'm not making this up. They play at - by far - the fastest tempo of any team in the country. While just 8-8 SU overall, they are 6-2 SU at home. Now the upset of Wofford did require OT, but it was a game they led by nine at halftime and by seven in the extra period. As an underdog this season, the Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS. They have double revenge from LY as well and in one of the losses to ETSU (at home!), they shot only 27.9% from the floor and scored just 51 points, easily a season-low. I'm sure the players remember that one. This year's group has made at least 10 three-pointers in 14 of 16 games and 15+ seven different times. They've had seven games w/ multiple 20+ pt scorers. ETSU is just 2-2 SU this year away from Johnson City. 10* The Citadel |
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01-04-17 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Washington State | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (11:00 ET): The Pac 12 is a fairly "top-heavy" league this year w/ UCLA, Oregon, Arizona and even Cal likely to "duke it out" for the top spot. But after that, the prognosis looks rather bleak for the rest of the lot, including a USC team that has just one loss. Clearly, the two worst teams in the conference are Oregon State and Washington State, who will matchup tonight in The Palouse. While this has been an incredibly miserable season thus far for OSU, one that has seen them lose their best player (Tres Tinkle) for an indefinite period of time, I still have them rated slightly above Wazzu. Thus, even after factoring in the home court advantage, this looks like a really solid value to me. Take the points. Washington State comes in off a big upset over rival Washington, 79-74, as 12.5-pt underdogs in Seattle. That snapped a 17-game Pac 12 losing streak as they closed the game on a stunning 12-3 run after trailing almost the whole way. With a far more appealing home date looming against Oregon on Saturday (one of those aforementioned conference heavyweights), tonight's game all of a sudden shapes up to me a pretty classic 'sandwich spot.' Yes, the Cougs have triple revenge from the last two years, including a 69-49 loss in Corvallis LY in what was the teams' only meeting. But it's hard to endorse WSU as chalk seeing as the role finds them at just 1-5 ATS. That even includes a non-cover here at home against Sacramento State on 12.21. The team is on its longest win streak of the season (three games), but all three wins were by eight points or less. Meanwhile, it has not been an ideal start to Pac 12 play for Oregon State. They drew a couple of tough assignments last week, playing both USC and UCLA. Still, they covered both and actually come into tonight riding a 3-game ATS win streak. That includes an upset of a Kent State team that just went to Texas and won. As far as "true" road games go, the Beavers may be winless, but this is still quite the generous number. Note that OSU's matchup zone defense forced UCLA into its worst shooting night of the season (44.1%). The game was actually tied in the second half. Certainly then, the Beavers can keep Wazzu in check, right? 10* Oregon State |
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01-04-17 | IUPU Ft Wayne v. Nebraska-Omaha +4 | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show | |
8* Nebraska-Omaha (8:00 ET): We head to the Summit League for this play where the conference favorite (Ft. Wayne) is laying points on the road. IPFW was one of the top ATS teams in the country last year, going 21-8 at the betting window. In fact, no other team in the country that played at least seven lined games covered at a better rate! This year, predictably, has seen the oddsmakers get some of their money back. IPFW (Ft. Wayne) is just 5-5 ATS, though they do hold an outright win at Indiana. I played against them (successfully) early in the year when they went to Illinois State (as 6.5-pt underdogs) and lost 75-57. That brings me to my main point, which is that the Mastadons are only 1-4 ATS this season away from home (one win was Indiana), thus I don't like them as road chalk. That 42-22 overall ATS record the L3 seasons is due to regress. Take the points. Nebraska-Omaha happens to be leaving its (likely few) backers pretty broke. The Mavericks are returning home from an 0-3 SU/ATS road trip and last covered a game all the way back on December 3rd, at Iowa. That's an 0-6 ATS mark L6 lined games, if you're keeping score, though they did win SU three times during that span including both home games. This will only be the FIFTH home game this year for the team. Though already 0-2 in Summit League play, this will be the first conference home game. They have a bit of revenge on their minds from LY when they suffered two painful losses at the hands of IPFW, the first coming here in overtime, 106-101 as 8.5-pt chalk. The rematch was another high-scoring affair, 94-90, w/ FT shooting being the difference. Ft. Wayne has been a road favorite two times before this season and both times they failed to cover. The first was at Austin Peay and the second was at Detroit. This team's main problem when favored is they simply give up too many points. They are allowing 85.5 PPG away from home. You simply can't always outscore teams. The Mastadons found that out in the Summit League opener when they lost outright to a bad Western Illinois team 93-91 as 14.5-pt faves at home. They bounced back w/ a 102-91 win over Oral Roberts on New Year's Eve, but that's still 90 PPG allowed over the L3 contests! Back home, Omaha should shoot the ball better than they have the L2 games and an upset is likely. 8* Nebraska-Omaha |
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01-04-17 | Hawks v. Magic +3.5 | 111-92 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these teams enter in off upset victories. At home, Atlanta stunned San Antonio, 114-112 as five-point underdogs. That was just the fourth loss for the Spurs in their last 27 games. The upset not only required overtime after a last-second three to tie at the end of regulation, but also a season-best 32 points from Paul Milsap and a career-best tying 29 points from Tim Hardaway Jr. It will certainly be difficult to duplicate those numbers again here in Orlando. The Magic just went to New York and beat the overrated Knicks, 115-103 as 3.5-pt dogs. While the Hawks are on a three-game win streak, the Magic are also a respectable 3-2 SU their last five games. Orlando has won each of the L3 times they've played Atlanta, including a 131-120 road win last month. Take the points. The Hawks started the season out quite well, but have fallen off a cliff ever since. Now there are rumors that Milsap might be dealt, which would amount to essentially "waving the white flag" on the season. The team is still in playoff contention due to the East being so weak, but this is not a team capable of winning a 1st round playoff series. Offensive efficiency has been a problem as the team ranks only 23rd in that department. Recent performances have been better, but note that the entirety of the three-game win streak came at home. Now they're on the road where they're only 8-9 SU and averaging less than 100 PPG. Coming off a SU win as a dog this season, the team's record is just 1-4 SU and ATS. Orlando won't be going to the playoffs this year, but there are some nice young pieces. Chief among them is PG Elfrid Peyton, who had the best game of his career last month against the Hawks. There, he went for 29 points and 14 assists. He'll need to play well, not necessarily that well, for the Magic to beat the Hawks for a fourth straight time. My numbers don't like the idea of Atlanta laying more than one point in this spot, thus I'll side w/ the value as the Hawks have to prove it to me on the road. They are also just 1-6 ATS in division games so far this season. 8* Orlando |
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01-03-17 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 76-77 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (9:15 ET): I'm going to keep rolling w/ Bob Huggins' Mountaineers, who just might be the best team in the country right now. I had them on Friday when they went to Stillwater and dismantled Oklahoma State 92-75 as a short road favorite. I also took them the previous Friday as they rolled past an overmatched Northern Kentucky side, 92-61 as 26-pt chalk. For a second straight time, we find the team on the road and laying a short number against a Big 12 opponent they have dominated of late. Once again, the number is simply not high enough as Texas Tech's 11-2 SU record is nowhere close to as impressive as WVU's 12-1 SU mark. Kansas entered the year as the favorite and Baylor is still unbeaten. But the Mountaineers just might be the best team in the Big 12, if not the country. I've run through the exploits of this WVU team before, but allow me to do it again. HC Huggins can go as many as 13 deep w/ this roster. The pressure defense that he employs will continue to be among the best at forcing turnovers nationally. They forced 19 TO's at Oklahoma State and pretty much led that game by double digits throughout. Like OSU, the Mounties have had Texas Tech's number in the past, going 4-0 SU/ATS against them since joining the Big 12. It was close here in Lubbock LY, but then it was a 90-68 beatdown in Morgantown. Again, I'm not worried about this team going on the road as they've already won at Virginia, 66-57. The latest polls have WVU at #7. That's just too low. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is nowhere near as good as its record. Prior to Friday, they had lost only one time, which was by two to Auburn. But they blew a double-digit second half lead at Iowa State and ended up falling 63-56, not even covering the 4.5-point spot. That will be a difficult defeat to get over. Also difficult for the Red Raiders will be handling the Mountaineers' press. Against Iowa State, Tech turned the ball over 15 times, which is an ominous sign for tonight's matchup. Unlike WVU, Tech really didn't challenge itself during the non-conference portion of the schedule. What's their "best" win? It certainly won't be WVU after tonight. 10* West Virginia |
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01-03-17 | Texas A&M v. Kentucky -14.5 | 58-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show | |
8* Kentucky (9:00 ET): To me, the best team in the country is either Kentucky or West Virginia. Yes, UK has already lost twice. But those losses both came against top teams: UCLA (home) and Louisville (away). They were by a combined eight points. So what I'm saying is that there's no shame in the fact they've already tasted defeat twice. They've also beaten North Carolina at a neutral setting, remember. Coach Cal and company are also off an impressive drubbing of Ole Miss, in Oxford, last week. They won that game 99-76 as 11-point chalk and I'm envisioning a somewhat similar result tonight in Lexington. Lay the points. Texas A&M arrives in Bluegrass country off a very disappointing result as they lost at home to Tennessee their last time out. They were 9.5-point favorites in the 73-63 loss last Thursday. It was actually the second straight lined affair that the Aggies lost outright. On December 17th, on a neutral floor, they lost 67-63 to Arizona. So this is a clearly a team the oddsmakers have had overvalued. There was also an early season loss (as six-point favorites) at home to USC. Their only other loss was on a neutral floor to UCLA. No shame w/ that result, but I still feel the oddsmakers are being too kind for what will certainly be the Aggies' toughest SEC game of the year. These teams did play three tight games last year (two won by UK), but that was a better A&M team as well. Tonight actually marks the 1st time that Kentucky has gotten to play at Rupp Arena since December 7th. Credit Coach Cal for scheduling a pretty tough non-conference slate. At home so far, the Wildcats are 6-1 SU and outscoring opponents by 23.8 points per game. Offensively, UK has few peers as they are third in efficiency and average a whopping 93.5 points per game. That's simply way too much firepower for a Texas A&M side (74.7 PPG) to compete against. The Aggies haven't been blown out yet, but this will also likely be their most difficult assignment of the season. The fact they shot less than 35% from the floor against Tennessee last Thursday does not bode well for them at all. 8* Kentucky |
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01-03-17 | Pacers v. Pistons -4 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons started 2017 w/ a much needed win. It was not easy though. They trailed Miami - by eight - at halftime before storming back in the second half for a 107-98 win and cover. The fact that the Heat were short-handed on New Year's Day probably should temper any enthusiasm surrounding that victory, but considering how SVG's team ended 2016, they'll take it. With only two wins in the last nine games, the other coming against the LeBron-less Cavs the day after X-Mas, Detroit is actually in last place in the Central Division and outside the top eight in the East. But they're one of only seven teams in the Conference to have outscored opponents this season and the home court will be a big advantage tonight. Lay the points. Indiana arrives in the Motor City having won B2B games. But the wins over Chicago and Orlando both took place at home. They'd lost four in a row previously and were 1-7 ATS over an eight-game stretch. The road has been unkind to the Pacers this season as they are just 4-13 SU and ATS outside of the Hoosier State. Getting points has been of little benefit to this team as well as they're just 5-11 SU/ATS in the underdog role. They're also 4-12 ATS when facing a team with a losing record. Coming off a double digit win this year, they're 3-6 ATS. Let me be clear here - Indiana may have a better record than Detroit, but they are not the better team! I make that last statement knowing full well that the Pacers have won the last three head to head meetings, including one right here in Detroit a little over two weeks ago. As 4.5-point dogs (rare cover in that role!), Indiana came in and won 105-90 as the Pistons had an awful shooting night (38.1 FG%). Perhaps that had something to do w/ Detroit being in the second game of a back to back (lost at Washington the previous night). Whatever the reason was there, I expect better results here. The Pistons are a staunch defensive team, giving up only 95.2 points per game at home. I've still got faith in SVG and think he'll continue to turn this thing around. 10* Detroit |
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01-02-17 | Suns v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 98-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Though potentially undermanned (we know they'll be w/o Blake Griffin), I still think that the Clippers will have enough horses to get by the woeful Suns. Phoenix has actually covered B2B games, winning one of them, a surprising upset of Toronto as 8.5-pt underdogs. But that game was also at home and the Raptors were in the second night of a back to back after playing the Warriors. On the road, the Suns are just 4-15 SU and giving up a rather unsightly 114.7 points per game. They did manage to stay within the number at Utah Saturday night, which I did not like (had the Jazz), despite scoring only 86 points. The Clips will be desperate to snap a six-game slide here though and I'll lay the points. Chris Paul is listed as questionable for tonight due to his ongoing hamstring issue. DeAndre Jordan is probable despite a hip injury. Whether both, one or neither plays, this selection remains valid. I realize that the Clippers have lost to Dallas, the Lakers, Denver and New Orleans during this six-game losing streak of theirs. But this matchup certainly offers a reprieve after playing at Oklahoma City and Houston. The Rockets torched their once mighty defense for 140 points on Friday and then a night later the Thunder scored 114. But winning a shootout here is likely given the Suns' own defensive ineptitude. Phoenix has allowed only 91 pts in B2B games, the primary reason they're 2-0 ATS in those games, but note that previously they had allowed fewer than 100 points only three times ALL SEASON! The upcoming schedule should permit a Clippers' turnaround as they'll be playing all games in the state of California the next three weeks. Remember, there was a time when the Clips were playing better than every other team in the league. Given the potential personnel differences, it's likely worthless to cite LA's 116-98 win over Phoenix early in the season here at Staples Center. But they have won the last five home games against the Suns. HC Doc Rivers should be able to create a sense of urgency here and whomever he has in the lineup, should respond in kind. The Suns are just not a very good team. 8* LA Clippers |
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01-02-17 | Chattanooga v. NC-Greensboro +5.5 | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show | |
8* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): We go to the Southern Conference (5th oldest in the country!) for tonight's College Hoops play and we find a home dog with plenty of value. Yes, Chattanooga is the favorite to once again win this league and is rated among the top 100 nationally. But the Mocs will encounter a worthy challenger tonight in Greensboro. Making matters for difficult for the favorite is that it's their second road game in three days. UNC Greensboro will certainly not be lacking for motivation here as they are looking to bounce back from a surprise loss (here at home) to Samford on Saturday. Like Chattanooga, two of the Spartans losses came against major conference teams. They've lost only four times overall and I love the spot. Take the points. Chattanooga's season got off to an impressive start as they went to Tennessee and won 82-69 as 3.5 point dogs. Then came a 40-point loss at North Carolina. But since then, the Mocs have gone 10-2 w/ both losses coming by six points or less. One of those losses was at Vanderbilt (by two). They've covered all but one of their last six games and are off B2B double digit wins, including 64-48 at Western Carolina in the SoCon opener. So why the fade here? Well, for starters, UNC Greensboro isn't likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Western Carolina did Saturday. The Catamounts were an awful 34 percent overall from the floor, including 2 of 10 from three-point range. UNC Greensboro has covered 10 of the last 12 meetings in this rivalry, but they had lost three in row straight up to Chattanooga before pulling a big upset LY as 12.5-pt road dogs. Their impressive 79-64 win last February marked the third consecutive time the road team has won in this rivalry. It was one of just THREE SoCon losses for the Mocs last year. Chattanooga has won it's last two visits to Greensboro Coliseum, but this is a much better Spartans team now. Yes, UNCG has failed to cover three in row, including a pair of double digit losses. But prior to that, their only two losses had both been by six points or less. I'm impressed w/ the team's defense (just 63.4 PPG allowed at home) and they should shoot a lot better here than they did in the loss to Samford (37.9%), which was a surprisingly poor performance (looking ahead?). They'll bounce back here. 8* UNC Greensboro |
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01-02-17 | USC v. Penn State +8 | 52-49 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show | |
8* Penn State (5:00 ET): I understand there is some leeriness regarding this Penn State team. Certainly, the Big 10's rep took a bit of a hit w/ Ohio State's ugly showing against Clemson in the CFP Semifinals. But, getting points, I believe the Nittany Lions to be a strong play in this year's Rose Bowl. Down the stretch, this was a covering machine w/ eight ATS wins in their final eight games. Yes, USC was just as hot w/ their own eight-game win streak that included six straight covers. Like Penn State, the Trojans beat a team that made the CFP (Washington, Ohio St). Despite what you've heard about Southern Cal and the slight "home field" edge that the Pac 12 traditionally enjoys at the Rose Bowl, this line should be closer to a Pick 'em, rather than a touchdown. Take the points. The only game USC failed to cover during it's eight-game win streak was against Colorado and that was a game they kneeled out the clock (inside the 5-yd line) rather than score. They even outgained the Buffaloes 539-371. Every win since has been by double digits w/ the closest margin being 13 points (over Washington). But, if we're going to criticize the Big 10, should we not do the same to the Pac 12? Washington, like Ohio State, was humbled in the CFP semis (something I know all too well!). Also, Colorado got laid to waste in the Alamo Bowl by Oklahoma State. Washington State lost outright to Minnesota. The Pac 12 has just two bowl wins so far and they've been by a combined three points in games where they were favored. So, what I'm saying is that maybe USC's win streak isn't as impressive as it seems. USC's season clearly turned w/ the QB change to Sam Darnold. But he's just a freshman. I say Penn State's Trace McSorley is the more talented signal-caller in this game as led all Big 10 QB's w/ 3,360 yards passing and was #1 in the nation at 16.3 yards per completion. When he's not throwing the ball downfield, McSorley can always hand the ball off to RB Saquon Barkley, the Big 10's Offensive Player of the Year. I really like the fact that the Nittany Lions have outscored opponents by 193 points in the second half of games alone. Their only two losses were to Pitt (beat Clemson) by three and Michigan (when their LB corps was decimated by injury). This will NOT be a repeat of the 2003 Orange Bowl where a red hot USC team blew out an undeserving Iowa team. Penn State will be just as motivated by its exclusion from the playoff, which it likely belonged in. 8* Penn State |
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01-02-17 | Iowa +3 v. Florida | Top | 3-30 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* Iowa (1:00 ET): I'm not sure there should be a side more motivated to win its bowl game than Iowa. Sure, the Hawkeyes are coming off their fourth straight winning season and have been successful, generally speaking, throughout Kirk Ferentz' 18-year tenure here in Iowa City. But postseason games have not gone Ferentz's way of late as the last four have all resulted in losses. The last two were particularly humiliating as they were "doubled up" (outscored 90-44) by Tennessee and Stanford. But unlike those years, they're not being "overslotted" into a bowl spot they're unworthy of. No, here they draw a Florida team that they'll matchup w/ quite well and I like the Hawkeyes to break the bowl losing streak. Take the points. The Hawkeyes certainly ended the regular season well w/ three straight wins and covers. That stretch began w/ a huge upset of then-unbeaten Michigan (were 3 TD underdogs and I had them), 14-13. It culminated w/ a 40-10 beatdown of Nebraska in the reg season finale. Defensively, this team provides us w/ plenty of confidence as they allow an average of just 17.9 points per game. Over the L3 games, they allowed just 23 points total. In seven of their 12 games this year, they allowed 17 pts or fewer. Those numbers are particularly inspiring when priced as the dog. The underdog role hasn't necessarily treated Iowa all that well the L3 seasons (just 5-5 ATS), but they are 6-3 ATS in games where the line is three points or less, either way. Yes, Florida is also looking to wipe away the memory of last year's bowl experience, a horrible 41-7 loss to Michigan in the Citrus Bowl. But that was just one loss while Iowa is gunning to stop a four-game bowl skid. And, yes, this game might be taking place in the state of Florida. But so too did LY's debacle vs. the Wolverines. So that won't help the Gators. Nor will QB Austin Appleby, who was picked off three times in the SEC Championship Game and threw only 8 TD passes all year. While Iowa closed strong, Florida did not. The Gators got blown out in their final two games, first by Florida State, then by Alabama. The combined final scores there were 85-29. Florida's most impressive win was the rescheduled game vs. LSU, but that was a lucky win, more of a byproduct of bad Tigers' playcalling inside the 10-yd line. In what promises to be a relatively low-scoring affair, taking the points only seems natural. 10* Iowa |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan +9.5 v. Wisconsin | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Western Michigan (1:00 ET): The MAC is notoriously bad in bowl games and 2016 was no different. It was a big "0-fer" in December w/ the conference losing all five opportunities. However, with the exception of Central Michigan's awful showing against Tulsa in the Miami Beach Bowl (55-10 loss), all the other games were close. In fact, Toledo, Ohio, Eastern Michigan and Miami OH all lost by five points or less, two of them covering. Those four losses came by a combined 13 points. So this is a storyline that will likely be overplayed in the analysis leading up to the Cotton Bowl. Furthermore, it's grossly unfair to lump Western Michigan in w/ the rest of the conference. The 13-0 Broncos are likely the best team EVER to come out of the MAC and because of HC PJ Fleck, you know they'll be supremely motivated Monday afternoon. So take the points. While motivation couldn't be higher for Western Michigan, I'm not sure that will be the case for the Wisconsin side. In the past, we've seen the Power 5 team matched up w/ a "Group of Five" team in the "New Year's Day Bowl Game" play pretty uninspired ball. In fact, since the new playoff system was instituted two years ago, we've seen upsets both times. In the 2015 Fiesta Bowl, Boise State beat Arizona 38-30. Last year, in the Peach Bowl, Houston took care of Florida State 38-24. So the precedent is set for the Badgers to lay an egg here. Especially considering the disappointing ending to their regular season, which saw them blow a 28-7 lead in the Big 10 Championship Game. Yes, their only three losses came to Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. But their best win - against overrated LSU - was by just two points. When I call Western Michigan "(possibly) the best MAC team in history," it's not hyperbole. In nine conference games, the Broncos outscored foes by a whopping 221 points. The MAC Title Game vs. Ohio was a bit closer than you'd like to see, but still they put up 29 pts on a very good defense. This sets up as a bit of a defensive affair as well, but I still give WMU the edge on the offensive side of the ball w/ the combo of QB Zach Terrell and WR Corey Davis. Plus, the Wisconsin defense was certainly susceptible to the "big play" against Penn State, an offense that is no more dynamic than Western Michigan's. While 4-0 ATS as a dog this year, Wisconsin was just 3-3 ATS when laying more than a touchdown. WMU is on an 11-3 ATS run as a dog the L3 seasons and has already beaten two "lesser" Big 10 teams - Northwestern and Illinois - this season, both on the road! 8* Western Michigan |
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01-01-17 | Arizona State v. California -9 | 65-81 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
8* California (10:00 ET): For Arizona State, this is the dreaded "second road game in three days" spot that all Pac 12 teams will face at one time or another during the course of the conference schedule. Considering the Sun Devils just pulled off an upset at Palo Alto, beating Stanford 98-93 as 6.5-pt dogs on Friday, a letdown is all but inevitable tonight in Berkeley. Conversely for Cal, this is a chance to atone for an outright loss to Arizona (were 2.5-pt favorites) on Friday (also a five-point game). The Bears have actually now lost two in a row at home, but considering who the losses were to (Virginia & Arizona) and the fact they were close, I am unconcerned. Prior to the B2B losses, Cal had won 27 in a row at Haas Pavilion. I'll lay the points w/ them here. Though Cal has a poor ATS record overall this season (4-9), I'm proud to say that I was on them in two of the wins and covers. The first was an 86-61 rout of Cal Davis. The second came a week later and also a lopsided result, 81-55 over Cal Poly. There is no shame in losing to Virginia and Arizona, two of the best teams in the country, by a combined nine points even at home. They played both tough. Against Virginia, it was a tie game (22-22) at the break and they never trailed by more than five in the second half. As most opponents do, the Bears struggled to shoot the ball against the Cavaliers. The Arizona loss was more disappointing as they led by 13 at one point before wilting late. Again, poor shooting was the culprit. But after shooting 36% from the floor in B2B games, I look for the offense to bounce back here against an ASU team that is giving up 82.5 PPG on 46.7% shooting. The Sun Devils are just 3-11 ATS when off a conference win the last two seasons, so there's a history of failing in this situation. In the case of their 98-93 win at Stanford on Friday, they got a career-high 30 points from Torian Graham and a season-high 25 points from Tra Holder. That won't be duplicated here, nor will the massive shooting discrepancy they held over the Cardinal from behind the three-point line (54% to 33%). I've gone over the talent on this Cal roster previously and I like this team quite a bit. I have them rated 4th in the Pac 12 (behind UCLA, Arizona and Oregon) while ASU is third worst. The Bears are the top defensive team in the league (only 59.9 PPG allowed) and have Ivan Raab, who is coming off yet ANOTHER double-double (16 pts, 16 rebounds). 8* California |
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01-01-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers +5.5 | 37-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 6 m | Show | |
8* San Diego (4:25 ET): Kansas City needs to win this game and have Oakland (who is now w/o starting QB Derek Carr) lose at Denver and then they become AFC West Champs + get the 1st round playoff bye. Truth be told, that scenario unfolding is not difficult to envision. Predictably, the Chiefs are drawing a lot of public support in this spot, but I'm using this chance to stump one final time for the Chargers and complain about what has been one of the more unfortunate NFL seasons in recent memory. One could make the case that the respective paths for these teams was established back in Week 1 when KC erased a 27-6 fourth quarter deficit and beat the Bolts in overtime. Still, I think this line is just too high. Take the points. San Diego enters the final week at 5-10 SU, but they have played much better than that record indicates. Yes, as far as season win totals are concerned, they were top Over bet at 7.0. Last week's embarrassing loss to previously winless Cleveland ensured that would be a losing proposition. But it was also all too emblematic of how this season has gone. Kicker Josh Lambo, who was previously 23 of 24 on field goal attempts inside the 50-yd line, missed TWO in the final minutes w/ a chance to tie the Browns. That loss dropped the Chargers to a hideous 1-8 SU in one-score games. This after going 3-8 SU in such contests last year! They have blown big leads (see KC Wk 1), missed clutch FG's (see last week), turned the ball over at inopportune times (vs. NO & MIA) and generally invented other ways to lose. Consider that they have led in every game this season but ONE! They've been outscored by all of THREE points for the season! There are reasons to play against the Chiefs here as well. For a second straight week, they could be w/o top pass rusher Justin Houston. Keep in mind they're already w/o LB Derrick Johnson. One of the keys to Kansas City's success the L2 seasons has been turnover differential as they are a league best +29. Interestingly though, San Diego has nearly the same number of takeaways this year. There's a chance RB Melvin Gordon could return for the 'Bolts here. I understand KC's circumstance and SD's record, but this is still too many points for the Chiefs to be laying on the divisional road. 8* San Diego |
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12-31-16 | Suns v. Jazz -11 | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): It's taken visits from the Lakers and Philadelphia, but the Jazz seem to be back on track. Of course, it also helps that this favorable scheduling stretch has coincided with the team getting healthier. Clearly, the schedule makers intended on the Jazz ending their 2016 on a positive note because tonight brings a visit from another lowly opponent, Phoenix. What I really like about this play is that the Suns are actually off a SU win, a real shocker no less, as they upset Toronto (as 8.5-pt home dogs) on Thursday. That puts them in a less than favorable spot as they're 1-7 ATS this season when off an outright win as a dog. Lay the points. It was a favorable spot when Phoenix hosted Toronto Thursday. That's because the Raptors were in the second game of a back to back and had just played the Warriors tough the previous night. It marked just the fourth time all season that the Suns held an opponent below 100 points. But don't let one upset fool you; the Suns are not a good team. That was just their fourth win in December and two of the other three came at the expense of Philly and the Lakers (sound familiar?). The other win came by two, at home, against the overrated Knicks. On the road this year, the team is 4-14 SU while giving up a hiedous 116.1 points per game. They have just one road win since Thanksgiving! Defensively, these teams are miles apart. While Phoenix is giving up the most points per game, Utah is at the opposite end of the spectrum. They allow the fewest number of points per game in the league at 95.0! As mentioned earlier, they are (finally) starting to get healthy as PG George Hill is back. These teams met earlier this month and Utah led the entire way. The final score of 112-105 is a bit misleading at Utah led by as many as 23 before letting Phoenix come back. I can't see the Suns being too "defensive-minded" here on New Year's Eve, thus this has all the makings of a blowout. 8* Utah |
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12-31-16 | Ohio State -3 v. Clemson | 0-31 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 9 m | Show | |
8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): All the talk on television from the pundits seems to center around "how can Ohio State be favored here?" That line of thinking essentially matches up w/ the betting public, which is throwing its support behind the underdog by a fairly significant margin. This is also "all fine by me" as I'll gladly lay the short number w/ the best team from what was the best conference in the country this season. Yes, I'm well aware that Clemson HC Dabo Swinney is 5-0 ATS as a dog in bowl games, including an upset over the Urban Meyer-led Buckeyes back in the 2013 Orange Bowl. But I'll still take Meyer, who hasn't lost a bowl game since, any day of the week and possibly twice on Saturdays. This is a much different situation for Clemson compared to LY's CFP Semifinal Matchup w/ Oklahoma when most of the experts were betting AGAINST them. Most people would probably make the case that over the L2 seasons, Clemson has been the second best team in the country, behind only Alabama of course. But the Tigers have certainly "lived dangerously" for a good deal of this two-year span w/ 10 wins by one score. Six of those came this season and it finally caught up w/ them in their lone loss, 43-42 at Pitt, which came as 21.5-pt home favorites. That's a far worse loss than Ohio State's lone defeat in 2016, which came on a fluke field goal block return for TD. That game, at Top 10 Penn State in the snow, saw the Buckeyes outgain the Nittany Lions 412-276. They also never trailed until the fateful GW play. By the way, Ohio State has also only lost twice over the L2 years and both were in games that involved "the elements" (i.e. Mother Nature. There will be no such elements present Saturday night in the Fiesta Bowl, a venue that the Ohio State program has found a lot of success in through the years. I make the case that this has been the second best team in the country over the L2 seasons. I think were it not for OSU's offensive struggles for 3+ quarters against Michigan, they'd be drawing far greater support. But it should be noted they turned it on late and ended up outgaining the Wolverines. That Michigan defense is also far better than the one they'll face here. Turnovers could be a big issue here as they plagued Clemson in the loss to Pitt as well as close calls vs. NC State and Louisville. Ohio State happens to be Top 10 in the country in forcing turnovers. Unlike seemingly everybody else, I did not expect Clemson to get back to this point. Meyer is one of the best bowl coaches in the history of College Football and I think his team benefits from having played one less game. 8* Ohio State |
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12-31-16 | NC State v. Miami (Fla) -5.5 | Top | 63-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (4:30 ET): While it's been a really good start to the season for "The U," success has not translated to the betting window. The 'Canes are just 2-8 ATS despite being 10-2 straight up. Their last seven lined contests have all resulted in ATS failures, but that comes w/ a caveat as they've been asked to lay 14 or more points in each of the last five. Note that a good portion of those ATS results came down to the wire with three decided by three points or less. So it's not as if they're falling well short of the oddsmakers' expectations. This is still a very good team and for the ACC opener, I do believe they're being undervalued. They'll host a NC State team that has played only one "true" road game to date and that resulted in a double digit loss at Illinois. Eight of Miami's 10 wins this year have come by double digits. None have been by fewer than eight points. The two losses came at neutral settings against good teams (Iowa State and Florida), both of whom are worthy of the Top 20 in my estimation. NC State is outside the Top 50. The Hurricanes remain on the fringes of the top 25 ("others receiving votes") and have an average margin of victory 21.1 PPG here in Coral Gables. That's after only beating Columbia by 11 on Wednesday (as 23-pt favorites), which stands as one of their biggest misses from the oddsmakers' call. Turnovers (20) were the primary issue there, but they'll come down that from season-high number of miscues here. It should also be noted Columbia was coming off nearly three full weeks of rest. NC State didn't challenge itself much during the non-conference portion of the schedule, save for a loss to Creighton where they got blown out. Their last six games all took place in Raleigh against non Power 5 foes. Unlike Miami, the Wolfpack have experienced success at the betting window as they are 4-0 ATS here in December. But Tennessee State, Appalachian State, Fairfield and Rider are hardly an impressive slate of opponents. None of NC State's last five opponents have shot better than 38% from the floor, which I credit more to inferior opposition than the Wolfpack's defense. This team has three wins by four points or less so far, all against pretty weak competition (Ga Southern, Loyola-IL and Bradley). Lay the points. 10* Miami FL |
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12-31-16 | Washington +15 v. Alabama | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -115 | 352 h 26 m | Show |
10* Washington (3:00 ET): Top-ranked Alabama comes in as a decided favorite over the rest of the CFP field. Nick Saban's Crimson Tide would not only be favored by more than a touchdown over either potential Championship Game opponent, they are already less than even money to win the whole thing. But this spread is far too high. It must be pointed out that the SEC had a really down year. That means 'Bama did not face the usual gauntlet we're accustomed to seeing. Furthermore, I'd like to go on the record and say quarterback play in the SEC was downright abhorrent this year. Jake Browning and Washington will easily be the best QB and team that 'Bama has seen in 2016. I can't see any justification for this being a double digit line other than the public perception that the Tide will roll. But I anticipate this first semifinal being much closer than anticipated. Take the points. Unlike Alabama, Washington did suffer a loss during the regular season. It was at home to USC on November 12th. But since then, the Huskies have rolled to three consecutive victories by 26 points or more, two of them coming against a pair of Top 15 opponents - Washington State and Colorado. This will now be the first time all year that they are getting points. The only criticism the Huskies have taken regarding their inclusion in the final four is they played a very weak non-conference schedule. But the Pac 12 is also the only league that plays nine conference games. Thus, I believe they are more than battle-tested. We have seen their head coach (Chris Petersen) deliver in these kinds of spots before. Boise State over Oklahoma, anyone? In terms of efficiency, Washington matches up well w/ Alabama. Yes, the Crimson Tide are the best defensive team in the country, but the Huskies rank a solid fifth in defensive efficiency. However, it's the Washington offense that will keep them in this one. On that side of the ball, the Huskies are #2 in the country. Bama is just 23rd. Again, Browning will be - easily - the best QB Bama will have seen to this point. With the Tide offense, let's not discount the impact OC Lane Kiffin's impending departure may have. Factoring in all three phases of the game, these have been the two most efficient teams in the country. I'd also like to comment on turnover differential. Bama has scored an inordinate number of defensive TD's this year. But Washington has forced the most TO's (33) and has the best margin (+21) in the country. Therefore, how can you not take the points? 10* Washington |