Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-17-17 | Packers +2.5 v. Panthers | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The wait is apparently over. Aaron Rodgers will suit up for the Pack this week, ending an eight-week absence. In preparation of this announcement, I jumped on GB early this week (getting them at a nice price), but note this play is still absolutely valid. The Packers may have only gone 3-5 w/o Rodgers in the lineup, but are off B2B wins as well, both coming in overtime. They're now 7-6 SU and one-game back of the final Wild Card in the NFC. With Rodgers back, the likelihood of "running the table" (winning out) obviously increases and if the team does that, then they may improbably make the playoffs. One of the teams they are chasing is who they are playing at this week. Take the points. Carolina is 9-4 SU (two games ahead of GB) and off a huge win (here at home) over Minnesota. They blew a 24-13 lead LW, but were able to score the GW TD under two minutes ago. Overall, the Panthers have won five of six (only loss at New Orleans). They've played good defense all season long (allow just 302.1 YPG). But I think it's still important to note that they are only outscoring opponents by an average of less than a field goal per game. The return of Rodgers had to be a bit of a "shock to the system" for Carolina, who I don't think was anticipating facing him (was initially thought to be returning last week). Meanwhile, there can be no denying just how much better GB is w/ Rodgers under center. Backup Brett Hundley performed admirably in his absence, but the truth is the Pack were pretty lucky to win the L2 weeks. However, the offense did still score an average of 27 PPG the L3 wks. Rodgers impact will be felt though, primarily by Jordy Nelson, who (not surprisingly) had much better numbers when #12 was in the lineup and not Hundley. Rodgers had a 13-3 TD-INT ratio before going down w/ the collarbone injury. It's as simple here as me putting my faith in Rodgers being a difference maker. 8* Green Bay |
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12-17-17 | Jets +17 v. Saints | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 93 h 3 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): A total "hold your nose" & take the points situation. Yes, the Jets are w/o Josh McCown and gained only 100 total yds in a shutout loss to the Broncos last week. They're forced to go w/ Bryce Petty as their starting QB here. My raw power ratings (which respect the Saints greatly!) have this line only at -10.5. Petty is a downgrade from McCown for sure, but I'm not sure one that necessitates almost a full touchdown move on the pointspread. New Orleans finds itself smack dab in the middle of an "Atlanta sandwich" as they lost to the Falcons last week and will rematch w/ them (here at the Superdome) next week. The Jets have been better than all of us thought they'd be this year as they're only being outscored by 3.5 PPG. Take the points. For years, the Saints were an "all-offense, no defense" team being carried by QB Drew Brees. This year's resurgence has come about primarily due to a vastly improved run game and defense. The "dynamic duo" of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara may find some tough sledding here, however, as the Jets' D ranks #13 against the run. Also, Kamara is coming off a game where he had to leave w/ a concussion. Because they've been off for 10 days (played Thursday last week), Kamara has gotten a full week of practice in, but that last game saw the Saints suffer tremendous attrition as 10 different players left the field due to injury. This team has performed tremendously as a favorite this season, going 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS, but this will be the first time they've been asked to lay double digits in the L3 seasons. They're just 5-12 ATS L17 times laying 10 or more pts. The Jets haven't been great on the road, but even w/ Petty starting for the 1st time since last year, there's value to be had here. Prior to being shutout last week, the Jets had outgained each of their previous four opponents. Going back to all the injuries the Saints suffered last week, the majority of them were on the defensive side of the ball. They could be w/o as many as three starters here - DE Hendrickson, LB Klein and DB Vaccaro - one at each level. They also could be w/o BOTH starting guards alongside the offensive line. At the very worst, the "backdoor" should be open late in the game and I can see a late Jets score getting the cover. 8* NY Jets |
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12-16-17 | Clippers +6 v. Heat | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Teams playing in the second night of a back to back are oft undervalued, especially when on the road, and that's what I'm banking on here as the Clippers look to bounce back from last night's nine point loss in the Nation's Capital. They still covered mind you, as they were 10.5 pt dogs against the Wizards. That makes it four straight covers for the Clips, all against Eastern Conference competition, as they are still trying to remain relevant in the wake of Blake Griffin's season ending injury. They'd won the previous three straight up as well, beating the Wiz (at home), then Toronto (also at home) and Orlando. Tonight's their third road game in four nights, but the opponent is also playing in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. Though last night they upset Charlotte, 104-98 as 5.5-pt dogs, Miami still qualifies as a disappointment so far this season, at least to me. This will also be their third game in four nights, by the way. I cashed the Under in last night's game, but note the Heat's defense strangely gets WORSE here at home where they're allowing 106.2 PPG. Overall, they have a losing record here on South Beach (5-7 SU) and are being outscored by more than five points per game. As a result, their home record at the betting window is just 2-8. Also, they've gone 1-5 ATS off a SU win as a dog this year. So maybe the spot is worse for Miami here! Neither team has won this year when playing in the second night of a back to back this year as Los Angeles is 0-4 (1-3 ATS) and Miami 0-2 (0-2 ATS). So something has to give and that's probably another argument for taking the points. I have these two teams rated dead even in my own personal power rankings, so the number being above three would seem to be incorrect. We all know the Clips have been snakebitten by injuries this season, but Miami is short-handed now too as they're w/o both Hassan Whiteside and Justise Winslow. Last night, the Heat's two leading scorers were Tyler Johnson and Wayne Ellington - two reserve guards. That's not something that can be counted upon every night. I look for Clippers' big man DeAndre Jordan to have a big night here and lead his team to a possible outright upset. 8* LA Clippers |
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12-16-17 | Oregon +2 v. Fresno State | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
10* Oregon (6:00 ET): Even w/ this being "true" road game #1 for the Ducks, I'm a little perplexed as to the favorite/underdog dynamic here as we have one of the Pac 12's four premier teams going up against a middle of the road group from the Mountain West. I get that Fresno State comes in having won seven in a row, but I don't exactly see a lot of heavyweights on that schedule. Sure, they've been blowing out their competition, but isn't that what you'd expect w/ the likes of Montana State, CS-Bakersfield and Ark Pine-Bluff? Due to covering only one of its previous seven games, Oregon is severely undervalued in this spot. This will be the third year in a row that these teams are going head to head. Oregon has won each of the last two years, but failed to cover each time. Still though, they were favored by 11.5 in '15 and 15.5 in '16. Granted, both of those games took place in Eugene. But has enough really changed to justify such a swing in the line? I think not. The Ducks did have a bit of trouble around Thanksgiving, dropping three of four games in eight days' time. But they've since bounced back w/ three straight wins, all at home. Wednesday marked the FIFTH time this year that they scored at least 95 pts in a game w/ an 11-pt win over Portland State. They shot 50% overall from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range. Another thing to like about this team is they are the best free throw shooting team in the Pac 12. Also, this will be just the second time (this year) the Ducks are dogs. They're 7-3 ATS L10 times taking points. Lest we forget that Oregon made the Final Four last season. Sure, they are down three starters from that squad, but they remain a top tier team in the top heavy Pac 12. Meanwhile, I'm not even sure that Fresno State will be a legit contender in the Mt West. The Bulldogs aren't a terribly deep team to begin with and are going to be w/o starting guard Jaron Hopkins (back injury). Hopkins is the team's second leading scorer. Furthermore, Johnny McWilliams (a reserve) is questionable w/ an ankle injury. Any kind of foul trouble would be devastating for Fresno State here as the rotation could be down to 6-7 players. Defensively, Oregon is holding its foes to just 37.8% shooting for the year. 10* Oregon |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions -5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 35 m | Show |
8* Detroit (4:30 ET): This line has come down during the week, presumably due to the Bears "huge" upset win over the Bengals last week. It was 33-7 in favor of the Monsters of the Midway, who were six-point dogs in what ended up being - easily - their largest margin of victory of the season. Chicago has faceplanted (i.e. lost outright) both of the two times they've been favored in 2017, but are a respectable 6-4 ATS as a dog (w/ four outright wins). However, I do not see them winning B2B games and with the number being so short, I'm going w/ the Lions in a game they almost "have to have." The Lions escaped Tampa Bay last week w/ a 27-24 win (won on a last second FG) and enter this game at 7-6 SU, one game behind of the final Wild Card spot. Having already suffered losses to both Carolina and Atlanta, the margin for error is almost non-existant now for the team from the Motor City. Fortunately, they have had Chicago's number in recent seasons. Going back to the 2013 season, they've taken eight of the nine head to head matchups in this NFC North rivalry. That includes a 27-24 win back in Wk 11 where they spotted the Bears a 10-pt lead on the road. Interestingly, the Lions were three-point road favorites that game. The market certainly seems to have overadjusted here considering the switch in homefield advantage. Chicago is not a strong offensive team as they average only 16.0 PPG on the road. Last week's effort is not indicative of the entire package here as rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky may very well have the worst group of receivers in the league to throw to. Note that they'd topped 17 pts only once in their previous six contests. Last week was their best performance of the season, easily, so I wouldn't look for them to come close to duplicating it. As for Detroit, they are averaging a healthy 26.8 PPG at home and QB Stafford showed little to no effect from his injured hand LW when he threw for nearly 400 yards. Four receivers had at least 64 yards. The Bears have lost the last six times they've been in a revenge situation, going just 1-4-1 ATS. 8* Detroit |
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12-16-17 | Cincinnati v. UCLA +3 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
8* UCLA (3:30 ET): Having thankfully rid themselves of the Ball clan, UCLA can now fully concentrate on winning games. Even amidst all the distractions, they've been doing a pretty good job of that so far, compiling a 7-2 SU record, though one of the two losses occurred their last time out, at Michigan last Saturday. Certainly, the Bruins have had ample time to get over that loss and that's huge because today they welcome in perhaps their toughest opponent to date, in #25 Cincinnati. They're catching them at an opportune time though as the Bearcats just put an end to Mississippi State's unbeaten run earlier this week and that came after their own B2B losses, to Xavier and Florida. Take the points here as I smell an "upset." Thanks to a game vs. Montana (scheduled for 12.6) being cancelled (due to concerns over nearby wildfires), UCLA has only played one game in the L13 days. It was the aforementioned loss to Michigan, which came in OT and saw the Bruins blow a 15-pt second half lead. Turnovers were an issue as they committed 20 of them up in Ann Arbor. Interestingly enough, the Wolverines had just blown a big lead in their previous game and lost to rival Ohio State. Maybe now it's UCLA's time to "flip the script?" What we do know is the Bruins are 31-7 SU their L38 home games, including 5-0 this year w/ a MOV approaching 20 points per game. Also, they are 7-2 SU the L3 seasons when taking the court w/ five or six days rest. Cincinnati certainly deserves a better ranking than what they currently have, based on the way they played. But as alluded to above, I hate this spot for them. They had to play a tough game during the week while UCLA was off. Miss State was unbeaten in "name only" and not as tough as UCLA will be though. This is just the 2nd "true" road game for the Bearcats, who lost their first (at Xavier) by double digits. Needless to say, this trip out West is a lot longer than the one across town. The depth issue UCLA has is shared on the Cincinnati bench and though many of the names have changed, remember that the Bruins eliminated the Bearcats from LY's NCAA Tournament. 8* UCLA |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Western Kentucky -6 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 219 h 32 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (2:30 ET): This was quite the disappointing season down in Bowling Green, KY as the Hilltoppers finished only 6-6 SU, a clear dropoff from LY's team, which finished 11-3 SU and won the C-USA Title. They came into 2017 as favorites to repeat in the East Division, but like everyone else, they fell victim to the resurgence of FAU under Lane Kiffin. WKU lost to FAU, 42-28 (as six-point home underdogs), back on 10.28. That loss begat a second half decline which saw the Hilltoppers lose four of their final five games. But a disappointing season can still be salvaged here w/ a favorable matchup against what may very well be the WORST of all the bowl teams, Georgia State, who was not only outscored over the course of the year (1 of only 7 bowl teams that can say that), but was outscored by almost a full touchdown per game. That's easily the worst scoring differential among all 74 bowl teams. Lay the points here in the Cure Bowl. This is hardly bowl season's most prestigious game, but Georgia State is probably "happy to be here." That's because they'd produced only ONE season w/ more than three victories going back to 2011. Ironically, that one season (2015) saw them end up here, in the Cure Bowl (played in Orlando), where they lost 27-16 to San Jose State. Most signs were pointing up though in Shawn Elliott's first year here as they played better than LY's 3-9 SU record showed (actually outgained SBC foes!), but the irony is that this Panthers' team is probably NOT as good as its 6-5 SU record. After becoming bowl eligible w/ a 33-30 win at Texas State on 11.11, they promptly were blown out in their final two reg seasons contests, 31-10 by Appalachian State and 24-10 by Idaho (both at home). The GSU offense averages less than 20 PPG (19.7 to be exact) and did not beat a single bowl team in the regular season. They played three (bowl teams) and were outscored 121-20 in those games. The truth about the Sun Belt is that the competition is VERY weak below the top three teams. Western Kentucky's inferior record (compared to LY) can be pinned on a couple things. One, they lost HC Jeff Brohm, who cashed in at Purdue. Two, they lost TWO 1300+ yard receivers. But QB Mike Whitie is still more than capable of producing a big day in the passing game as he led all C-USA players w/ an average of 303.3 YPG. Also, despite losing those two quality receivers from last season, the Hilltoppers are arguably deeper at the position this year w/ 11 different wideouts having 24+ catches. This is WKU's fourth consecutive year playing in a bowl and they've won each of the last three. They know what they're doing this time of year. Compare that to a poor Georgia State team that has NEVER won a bowl. WKU is also 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS coming off a bye while Georgia State is 1-7 SU/3-5 ATS in that role. 8* Western Kentucky |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | Top | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 217 h 53 m | Show |
10* North Texas (1:00 ET): The Mean Green of North Texas have been pulling upsets all season long, so what's one more? They'll play Troy, a team that defied regression in 2017, in this year's edition of the New Orleans Bowl (played at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome). This is the third year in a row this bowl game matches up teams from C-USA and the Sun Belt w/ the former winning each of the L2 years. That bodes well here for UNT, who pulled three outright upsets during the regular season en route to a Championship Game appearance (lost 41-17 to FAU). I'm impressed by the fact the Mean Green were able to go 9-4 SU/8-5 ATS despite a -8 turnover differential. Defensively, they have their issues, but they also average more points per game than Troy. Take the points in this year's 1st bowl game. I said earlier that Troy "defied regression." What I mean by that is LY's team finished 10-3 SU (beat Ohio in the Dollar General Bowl) and became the 1st Sun Belt team to EVER be ranked when they were 8-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to eventual National Champ Clemson. Only two years removed from a 4-win season, you would have thought the Trojans would fail to match LY's season-win total, but instead they've matched it and now have a chance to exceed it! By far, the highlight of the regular season was a stunning 24-21 upset of LSU (in Death Valley!) as 20.5-pt dogs. They clinched a share of the SBC reg season crown (no Conf Title Game) by beating Arkansas State in the finale, 32-25, in Jonesboro. That game was won in the final 17 seconds w/ a TD and subsequent 2-pt conversion. However, be aware that the Trojans were VERY lucky to win that day as they were outgained 606-293! If not for TWO non-offensive scores, they would not even have been in position to "steal" the game late. Though 9-1 SU as a favorite, Troy has covered only four of those games. Similarly, North Texas won all six times it was favored in the reg season. But, as mentioned before, they were a pretty successful underdog as well. Troy allows only 17.5 PPG, but as we saw in the last game, they can give up plenty of yardage. The North Texas offense comes in averaging 467 yards and 35.9 points per contests. So, getting points, they are an attractive choice. Few even expected HC Seth Littrell to have his team in this position, but after inheriting a 1-11 team from two seasons ago, he's improved the win total in Denton B2B years. Remember the Mean Green actually played in a Bowl last season, despite being 5-7 SU (weren't enough eligible teams!). They covered in the Heart of Dallas Bowl vs. Army, losing only 38-31 as 11-pt pups. Now they look for their 1st bowl win since '13. Led by QB Mason Fine, this is the best offense that UNT has EVER fielded as seven different receivers recorded at least 24 catches. Fine set school records for passing yardage and touchdowns. The dog will score enough to cover here. 10* North Texas |
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12-15-17 | South Dakota State v. Colorado -2.5 | Top | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics -5.5 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:35 ET): Utah is a team that climbed to "unthinkable heights" in my own personal power rankings (as high as #6 two weeks ago!). But four straight losses, the last one coming against Chicago, have them now trending in the wrong direction and it's fair to wonder if they've peaked. Of course, "losing to Chicago" is not something the Jazz have exclusivity on in this particularly matchup as they face a Boston team that lost to the Bulls earlier in the week - by 23 points! But the Celtics have pretty clearly been a more consistent team than the Jazz through 30 games and not only that, they've been deadly at the pay window (20-8-2 ATS). They're off a win (over Denver) and at home, deserve to be favored by more here. Lay the number. Prior to losing four in a row, the Jazz had won six straight while going 6-0 ATS in the process. That win streak was snapped w/ a (100-94) loss at Oklahoma City where they at least covered as 8.5-pt pups. But since then, it's been a steady decline. They lost to both Houston and Milwaukee by double digits, then to the lowly Bulls as 5.5-pt road chalk. They actually trailed by as many as 12 points against a team that has just 7 wins all season. Joe Johnson, out since October, is now listed as probable to return tonight, but I'm not sure how much that will matter given the Jazz's road woes. They are just 2-10 SU/4-8 ATS outside of Salt Lake City this year and you can point squarely to defensive decline as the main culprit for the woes. While they allow only 95.1 PPG at home, Utah allows 106.6 PPG on the road. Boston is of course #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and also gives up just 98.0 PPG, 2nd in the league behind San Antonio. Of course, this game was to be the first meeting of Gordon Hayward against his former team, but a horrific injury on Opening Night ruined that. But instead of sinking w/o Hayward (big FA signing), the Celtics have thrived, going 24-6 SU and posting the best ATS record in the league. Given the state of their visitor tonight, they look like a "steal" laying this short of a number. 10* Boston |
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12-14-17 | Lakers +10 v. Cavs | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (8:05 ET): Cleveland has been doing a lot of winning of late (15-1 L16 games!), but until they dramatically improve on the defensive end, it will be difficult to take them seriously as any kind of legit threat to win the Larry O'Brien trophy. They still rank only 27th in defensive efficiency, which is up from early on in the season when they were at the very bottom. As a result, they're still only outscoring foes by about 3.6 points per game on the season. Their home ATS record is a money-burning 2-12 and it's not like they've been beating the "cream of the crop" during this win streak of theirs. If fact, NONE of their last 15 wins have come against a team that is more than one game above .500! So I think the Lakers keep this one closer than expected. Sticking w/ our defensive theme for a moment, the Lakers have improved dramatically in this area as they are all the way up to eighth in efficiency after ranking dead last a year ago. After opening this four game East Coast swing w/ a pair of wins (over Philly and Charlotte), LA dropped a tough one in New York Tuesday night, losing by only four as 2.5-pt dogs. It was an overtime game. While you'd maybe like to have seen them win that one, note they almost did despite leading scorer Brandon Ingram finishing w/ a season-low five points on 2 of 12 shooting. You have to figure he'll have a better night here. Cleveland has just been a terrible bet all season long, except for the select number of times they have been an underdog (5-0 ATS!). As a favorite, they're a hideous 5-17 ATS, so it should come as no shock to you to find that they are also 3-11 ATS when facing a squad that has a losing record. Five of their previous six wins have come by single digits and those were against Atlanta, Philadelphia, Memphis and Sacramento. Three of those teams (Philly the exception) are worse than the Lakers right now. When you give up 109 PPG at home for the season, it's difficult to cover large spreads such as this one. 10* LA Lakers |
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12-13-17 | Houston v. LSU +1.5 | Top | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* LSU (9:00 ET): Houston has just one loss on its resume (Drexel!), but I'm not convinced they should be a favorite tonight down in Baton Rouge. This is the time of year where "investigating" a team's record would suit you well. Not all won-loss records are "created equally" and in the case of Houston we have a team that just played its first "true" road game of the season back on Saturday. While the result, a 77-58 win, appears to be a positive sign, note that it came at the expense of lowly St. Louis. UH did drub Arkansas earlier this month (at home), but remember what I said earlier - they also lost to Drexel (as 14-pt chalk, on a neutral floor). Take the points here. LSU has played only seven games thus far and is 5-2 SU. Their losses came against Notre Dame and Marquette, two pretty good teams (especially the Irish). Those took place right before Thanksgiving and the Tigers have since bounced back w/ a pair of convincing wins, first over Tenn Martin, then over UNC Wilmington. Both were here in Baton Rouge. While Houston can certainly score "with the best of 'em" (81.7 PPG), LSU's offense has been even more prolific and at home (where they are a perfect 4-0 SU), the Bayou Bengals are averaging a whopping 96.2 points per contest! Defensively, they may have their issues, but they do rank in the top 30 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings. In fact, LSU is #1 in the COUNTRY in two-point field goal percentage (63.1!) after shooting 45 of 74 from inside the arc the L2 games. This is the best start for any Houston team since the 2007-08 squad. Because of the good start, they are a threat to win 20+ games this year. But this is one that should end up being a loss. My guess is that the Arkansas game ends up being UH's "best win" by season's end. They won't be as successful defensively here as they were Saturday at St. Louis, whom they held to 58 points on 36.4% shooting. Look for LSU big-man Duop Reath to be the difference maker in this one as he is coming off a 30-point game (in only 27 minutes of action). His size (he's 6'11") will be an issue for the guard-oriented Cougars. 10* LSU |
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12-13-17 | Blazers +3 v. Heat | Top | 102-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:35 ET): The Blazers have hit a bit of a rough patch as they've lost five in a row while giving up 113.4 points per game and allowing opponents to shoot above 51% from the field. This is a far cry from what we saw from this team in the early part of the season as they ranked near the top of the league in defensive efficiency (still 7th!). Now, many were predicting this "downfall," noting Portland had played arguably the league's easiest schedule over the first month. The fact that they lost four in a row at home was still surprising though; just as much as losing at Golden State (no Curry) on Monday was not. But after playing the Rockets and Warriors consecutively, it's a steep drop in class in terms of opponent for tonight and I don't agree w/ the oddsmakers that Portland should be the dog here. Take the points. Given some of the numbers (and the fact the Dubs were w/o Curry), you might have thought Portland should have won Monday night in Oakland. Damian Lillard led the way w/ 39 pts, the 10th time going over 30 this season. The team made 92% of its FT attempts (23 of 25) and turned it over just nine times in the game, five fewer than GSW. So what went wrong? Well, Golden State (Kevin Durant in particular) couldn't miss as they shot 55% from the floor. To be honest, the Dubs even led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. Now, you might then be concerned over the fact Portland is now facing a team that has shot the ball at better than a 56% clip in B2B victories. But don't be. The Heat are still languishing near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency (23rd) and wins over the likes of Memphis and Brooklyn should not lead to any sort of critical re-evaluation. Furthermore, the Heat are still w/o Hassan Whiteside (until January) and this is the first time they're coming off B2B wins in almost three weeks. Again, the wins came at the expense of the Nets and Grizzlies, two bad teams. Those two victories simply are not indicative of what we've seen from the Heat so far this season as they allowed sub-90 pts in both, but are still giving up 106.6 PPG at home this year. I thought this would be a better team coming into 2017-18, but the bottom line is they've been outscored and continue to have a negative net efficiency rating. They are only 2-7 ATS at home and were actually a dog at Memphis on Monday. This season has seen the Heat go a poor 1-4 ATS when off a SU win as a dog. 10* Portland |
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12-13-17 | Thunder +2 v. Pacers | Top | 100-95 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma City (7:00 ET): The big "storyline" heading into this game will be Paul George returning to Indiana to face his former team. But, for me, the issue is when (if ever?) will the Thunder start to turn things around. This has been a team, all season long, that you would think is destined to have a better record. After all, they've been outscoring their opponents by a decent margin. But 26 games into the campaign, OKC still has a losing record (12-14) and a new nadir may have been established two nights ago when they lost to a severely short-handed Hornets team, 116-103 at home. It was the Thunder's ninth consecutive ATS loss. Even though the team is just 3-10 SU on the road, I'm "buying low" here against an Indiana team that has overachieved. When the deal was made to send George to OKC in exchange for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, no one could have anticipated that the Pacers (16-11) would have the better record of the two teams more than a one-quarter of the way into the season. But they do. Oladipo himself has been a major reason for that as he's leading Indiana w/ 24.5 points per game. The Pacers have now won four straight, all here at home, including one over Cleveland where they ended the Cavs' franchise-best 13-game win streak (Cleveland's only loss in its last 16 games!). By most objective measures (point differential, net efficiency), this is probably the 4th best team in the East right now. But will this "overachievement" continue? I'm remain a little skeptical of that as this isn't a very good defensive team (allows 107.5 PPG at home!) and they're just 2-5 ATS this season after a double-digit win. Monday, they beat Denver 126-116. OKC, conversely, has been one of the biggest underachievers in the league so far. There's just no way this team should have a losing record given the talent on hand. Some of it has to do w/ bad luck. They've lost four games by three points or less and are 4-10 SU in games decided by eight points or less. (Indiana is a league-best 4-0 SU in games decided by 3 pts or less). Though they are sometimes guilty of faltering down the stretch in games, OKC's defense is still #2 in efficiency, trailing only Boston. Then there's this: when these teams met earlier in the season (October 25), the Thunder were 13-pt favorites and won 114-96. Using that 1st meeting as a baseline, it would certainly appear as if there's a TON of value on OKC for the rematch. They've got to break this ATS losing streak, right? 8* Oklahoma City |
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12-12-17 | Suns +4.5 v. Kings | Top | 92-99 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Even w/o Devin Booker (leading scorer), I believe the Suns can still beat the Kings in this battle of bottom three teams in the league. Just look at what happened to the Suns themselves their last time out. Facing a very depleted Spurs team, they lost 104-101. Often times, we see the marketplace overreact to an injury and that's what we have here. The Kings are very bad and probably shouldn't be favored over anyone at this point. Maybe the Bulls, if they were visiting, but w/ Chicago posting B2B wins, I now have Sacramento rated at the bottom of the league. They're being outscored by a ghastly 10.8 points per 100 possessions, which is just wretched no matter how you slice it. Getting points against the Kings is not a situation that will present itself all too often this season. In fact, this will be just their fourth game as chalk and they've gone 1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS in role so far. The Kings have not been favored by more than two points against anyone previous to tonight and two of the three instances of them as chalk came back in October. They lost both games outright, one at Phoenix. Interesting is that two of the three times they've been favored actually came on the road! The only time they've been favored since November 1st was at Chicago (12.1) and they won by exactly one point as 1-pt faves. Their lone appearance as home chalk this season came against New Orleans and they lost outright, 114-106. Though there are teams w/ worse records, no one can "match" the Kings' negative efficiency rating or YTD point differential, both of which are currently league worsts. Even w/o Booker, I expect Phoenix to be much more potent offensively than their adversary in this matchup. They come in averaging 107.1 PPG, which is the second highest average in the entire league right now! Sacramento is dead last in the league in points per game (96.1) and 29th in offensive efficiency (ahead of only Chicago). Marquese Chriss is one player that has picked up the slack in Booker's absence w/ 26 total pts in the L2 games. I expect the Suns to "push the pace" tonight as they rank 2nd in tempo league-wide while Sacramento is 28th. Note that they still won that first meeting despite attempting 22 fewer shots than the Kings! The Suns were far more efficient that day (54.5 FG%) and are likely to be again this evening. 8* Phoenix |
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12-12-17 | Monmouth v. Princeton -1 | Top | 58-69 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
8* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has yet to cover a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and returns home not only looking to snap a three-game SU losing streak, but also w/ revenge on its mind. The Tigers have had plenty of time to stew over last week's 71-60 loss at GW, but perhaps foremost on their minds here will be a six-point loss to Monmouth (tonight's opponent) last season. Interestingly enough, that would be their final loss of the 2016-17 regular season as Princeton closed on a 17-game win streak (perfect vs. Ivy League!) before bowing out to Notre Dame in the NCAA Tournament. They come into this year's matchup w/ Monmouth having a slightly worse record (2-6 SU) and this is their second three-game losing streak this season. But I believe the Monmouth game again signals a turnaround for the Tigers and I'll be on them tonight. Monmouth, ironically, also has lost its last three games. Unlike Princeton, they had to play over the weekend (Saturday) and it was a marquee game against Kentucky that they lost 93-76. After playing such a high-profile opponent (at a neutral site, no less!), this game is far less likely to hold the Hawks attention than it will for Princeton. Given the game vs. UK was closer to their "backyard," needless to say it was a disappointing showing for Monmouth, who shot only 37.1% from the floor while giving up 93 points. The Hawks trailed by 23 at half and it was never close. Overall, the Hawks have dropped six of seven and while three of those defeats have come by five points or fewer, they're still being outscored by 8.8 points per game away from home (whether "true" road game or neutral site). Princeton has played only three home games thus far and surprisingly they've lost two of them. Early in the year, they were favored here over BYU (-3.5), so that shows the respect they had from the books at one time. A loss here to Lehigh is what begat the current three-game slide and while scoring has been a bit of an issue for these Tigers, they are at least connecting at a 37.9% clip from behind the three-point arc. Monmouth is giving up almost 80 PPG for the year, so I feel this is the game where the Princeton offense finally breaks loose. In particular, keep an eye on senior PG Amir Bell, who got off to a similar slow start last year. Bell was shutout in 32 minutes vs. GW last week, a performance that certainly won't be repeated. 8* Princeton |
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12-11-17 | Raptors -5 v. Clippers | Top | 91-96 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
10* Toronto (10:35 ET): As a potential NBA Finalist, no one takes the Raptors seriously, but statistically speaking they have been superior to their main rivals in the Eastern Conference, Boston and Cleveland. In fact, only Golden State and Houston can claim a better net efficiency rating league-wide. Toronto comes into tonight's game riding a six-game win streak, the last two coming out on the road, and all but one of those victories has been by at least nine points! They won easily last night, 102-87 over lowly Sacramento. The Clippers have been beseiged by injuries (most notably Blake Griffin) and as a result are only 9-15 SU. They did win their last time out - by one over Washington - but won't be as fortunate here. Lay the points. That Clippers' win over the Wizards took place here at home on Saturday and snapped a four-game losing streak. They were catching the Wiz in a somewhat favorable spot as it was a fourth straight game out West w/o John Wall. Here, Toronto may be playing the second night of a back to back, but they are at full strength and a better team than Washington to boot. Key here is the Raptors' offensive efficiency, which ranks 3rd in the league (trailing only GSW and Houston) going up against a Clippers' defense which ranks 28th in efficiency, ahead of only Phoenix and Sacramento. The Raptors are averaging 118 points per over their last five contests and have scored at least 100 in 12 consecutive games. Toronto is running a more up-tempo approach offensively and as you can tell, it's been successful. "The new offense is coming along well," DeMar DeRozan said, according to the Toronto Star. "We're getting more and more comfortable, ball movement is getting much better and guys getting more comfortable handling the ball, pushing the ball in transition. Now everybody's getting a feel for the offense. That's a good thing. And we've still got a long way to go." Remember that the Clips have not posted B2B wins in over two weeks and their win Saturday came on a 30-foot three-pointer w/ one second to go in regulation. They're also 2-15 ATS the L3 seasons when coming off three or more consecutive Overs (0-4 ATS so far this season). Toronto led wire to wire last night and did so despite sub-par shooting from PG Kyle Lowry. It was a day game too; so this is NOT a "traditional" back to back. 10* Toronto |
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12-11-17 | Florida International v. South Florida -5 | Top | 65-53 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* South Florida (7:00 ET): This in-state battle may lack appeal for the casual bettor, but situationally I love the spot for the short home favorite, who is off a bad loss while its visitor is off a surprise win. Both USF and FIU last played nine days ago. On December 2nd, the former lost badly up at Appalachian State, 84-61 (9-pt dogs). It was the Bulls' worst loss to date and their third in a row overall. As for FIU, they pulled a moderate upset over South Alabama that same day, winning by a shocking margin (29 points!) as two-point dogs. Needless to say, I don't think we'll be seeing that kind of performance from the Panthers anytime soon! Note it came at home and this will be just the second "true" road game of the year for FIU. They lost the first, by 15, at WI-Milwaukee. I'm laying the short number here. Not much is expected from USF in 2017-18 as they've been predicted to finish near the bottom of the AAC. There's not a ton of offensive firepower here as they average only 63.8 PPG, but you have to figure they'll be at least a little sharper than they were their last time here in Tampa, which saw them shoot an abysmal 29.2% from the floor in 65-47 loss to Eastern Michigan. They've since followed that up w/ two losses in North Carolina, to Elon and Appalachian State. We already discussed the latter a bit and the former came by just a single point. Defensively, the Bulls are better than what they've shown the L2 games. They allow just 60.0 PPG at home and I'm counting on them holding FIU to a far worse shooting percentage than the 51.9% we saw from App State nine days ago. FIU did not shoot well in its only "true" road game to date, the aforementioned 66-51 loss to WI-Milwaukee. In that game, the Panthers shot just 35% from the floor. They've only been above 45.5% in two games all year and those happen to be the last two games. Certainly, look for them to "come back down to Earth" after the stunning showing against South Alabama, a game which saw FIU feast off turnovers and benefit from USA completely imploding down the stretch (just one FG make in final six minutes). Note FIU is just 1-5-1 ATS their L7 games off an ATS win and 2-6-1 ATS their L9 off a SU win. Meanwhile, USF is 5-1 ATS following an ATS defeat. Three of FIU's four wins this year have come against non-DI foes. No doubt that USF has played the tougher schedule to date (played at Indiana) and the key here will be their defense. Also, don't discount the fact that FIU is horrible from the FT line where they shoot just 57.5%. That matters in a game that's "supposed to be" close like this one. 10* South Florida |
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12-10-17 | Ravens +6 v. Steelers | Top | 38-39 | Win | 100 | 129 h 54 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:30 ET): Given that the Steelers were going to be on a short week, I thought this line opened way too high, so the fact that it's come down a couple point during the week is not surprising on this end. Even post-move, there's still a ton of value on the Ravens, who have the better point differential of the two teams. Plus, Pittsburgh played a very physical game Monday night at Cincinnati, losing LB Ryan Shazier (best wishes to him!) in the process. Now they've got to deal w/ another physical AFC North rival, one that is much better than the Bengals team they barely beat six days ago (last second field goal). Baltimore's defense has allowed the second fewest number of points in the AFC, trailing only Jacksonville. Take the points. This is also a legit revenge spot for the Ravens, who were humbled up in Pittsburgh back in Week 4. That 26-9 defeat is simply not indicative of where these teams are at currently, however, as the first meeting was a horrific situation from Baltimore's perspective. They were just one week removed from an awful showing in London where they were drubbed by Jacksonville 44-7. Having no bye week after a London game is rare and it definitely affected the Ravens adversely. Since that loss, Baltimore has gone 5-3 SU w/ two of the losses coming by only a field goal. Last week's 44-20 blowout of Detroit was their third consecutive victory and while that game didn't get "out of hand" until late, it was still an impressive win nevertheless. With three forced turnovers against the Lions, Baltimore is now +14 in TO margin this year and that's #1 in the entire league. If Week 4 could be termed a "horrific situation" for Baltimore, the proverbial "shoe" is now "on the other foot" here. Pittsburgh not only is w/o its top linebacker (Shazier), but emerging WR JuJu Smith-Schuster is also suspended for his (dirty hit) on Bengals LB Vontaze Burfict (oh the irony there!) Monday night. Yes, the Ravens have lost their top CB (Jimmy Smith) for the rest of the regular season. But what I'm more focused on here is the run defense, which is unlikely to allow anything close to the neighborhood of the 144 yds gained by Le'Veon Bell in that 1st meeting. Over the L5 weeks, the Ravens have allowed an average of just 67 rushing yards per game. 8* Baltimore |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -115 | 125 h 59 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:25 ET): It appears as if rumors of the Seahawks' demise were greatly exaggerated. They shot back into the thick of the NFC Playoff race last week w/ a very impressive Sunday night victory over the Eagles, 24-10, a game in which they were in the rare role of home dog. I believe that there's a case to be made that Russell Wilson, and not Carson Wentz, is the true league MVP this year. With the once-vaunted Legion of Boom (secondary) ailing, Wilson is carrying the offense and the team. This week presents a new challenge, in the form of a cross-country visit to face ascedent Jacksonville, but it's one that I feel the Seahawks will be up for. I again point to this team's track record as an underdog, which is now 6-5 ATS L11 w/ five outright victories. In many ways, the Jaguars are building their team in the same fashion Seattle did. The Jags' strength is clearly the defensive side of the ball as they've given up the fewest number of points in all of football. In fact, they've allowed 25 fewer points on the season than every other team! Turnovers have played a big role in this year's improvement as well as they are #2 in the league in TO margin at +12. They also have a front seven that should - on paper - dominate the suspect Seattle offensive line. But I come back to the most significant edge the Seahawks have in this matchup - and it the QB position w/ Wilson over Blake Bortles. Seattle's defense remains very good, mind you. Don't expect Jacksonville to score a ton of points Sunday. The last three weeks, Jacksonville has faced Cleveland, Arizona and Indianapolis. Those are three of the worst teams in the league. The offense gained fewer than 300 total yds against both the Browns and Cardinals. Against the former, they were very fortunate to cover and they lost to the latter. Last week, they did beat up on a direction-less Colts team. But the Jags have injuries on the defensive side of the ball now too, namely DB Jalen Ramsey and LB Telvin Smith. Those would be huge absences, if one or neither played. RB Leonard Fournette has also been in and out of the lineup recently w/ ankle issues. Again, Seattle just beat the supposed "best team in the league" last week and did so handily, by two touchdowns. The last time Jacksonville beat a team that currently has a winning record was a Week 5 win over Pittsburgh where the defense scored two touchdowns. 8* Seattle |
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12-10-17 | Celtics -1 v. Pistons | Top | 91-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
8* Boston (4:05 ET): Thanks to its early season 16-game win streak, the Celtics have remained comfortably in front of the pack in the Eastern Conference. However, their lead has shrunk down to three games over hard-charging Cleveland, who has won 14 of its last 15. Boston is off a loss here, in a "playoff-like" game at San Antonio. The final score was 105-102 (didn't cover as 2.5-pt dogs) as Kyrie Irving's three-point attempt at the buzzer went in and out. Tonight, the C's look to avenge one of their five losses this season in a visit to Detroit where they'll find a Pistons team that has fallen on "hard times." Since beating Boston on 11.27, the Pistons have gone just 1-5 SU and they're winless (0-5) here in December. As was the case w/ Boston, there was no real shame in the Pistons' last loss, although their opponent was w/o a key contributor. While Boston lost to the Kwahi Leonard-less Spurs, Detroit lost to the Steph Curry-less Warriors on Friday, 102-98 as 5.5-point home pups. The Pistons did have the halftime lead, but were outscored 31-17 in the third quarter and did not recover. That's five straight losses and counting for a team that was an early season surprise in the East. They have wins over both the Celtics and Warriors, but it will be interesting to see how they perform in yet another instance of a top team seeking revenge against them. My guess is that this game goes pretty similar to the last one. During the course of the losing streak, Detroit is shooting only 42.3% from the field and is being outscored by 6.8 points per game. Boston is 19-7-1 ATS in all of its games this season and continues to get it done w/ defense as they are #1 in the league in points allowed (97.5 per game) and efficiency. Simply put, I would not expect a repeat of when the Pistons scored 118 pts on better than 50% shooting in last month's meeting. Boston will be w/o some minor contributors this afternoon, but Kyrie Irving is taking off the facemask and will be at full strength. The Celtics have not dropped B2B games since starting the season 0-2 and have won by an average of 17 PPG off their last two losses. 8* Boston |
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12-10-17 | 49ers v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 26-16 | Loss | -125 | 122 h 34 m | Show |
10* Houston (1:00 ET): As down as I was on the Texans coming into the year, and especially in the wake of the DeShaun Watson injury, you may find it a bit "odd" that I'd be so strongly behind them here. But so much of this play is about the opponent and my desire to play against them. The 49ers are off a win, just their 2nd of the year, 15-14 over the Bears last week. The notion of that team winning B2B games, on the road no less and in an early start time, seems far fetched. Now give credit to San Fran for last week as they absolutely deserved to win the game (outgained Chicago 388-147 w/ 23-8 first down edge), but they last won B2B games back in 2014. Since that time, any time they have been off a win, the next game has resulted in a double-digit loss (w/ one exception). Since Watson was lost for the year, Houston is just 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS. They return home this week following B2B road loss to Baltimore and Tennessee, two potential playoff teams. This week's opponent will be the Texans' weakest since a win over Cleveland. While 1-5 SU on the road, Houston is 3-3 SU at home and outscoring teams by 5.5 points per game. They actually outgained Tennessee last week, 384-344, and it was a misleading final (24-13) due to the Titans scoring a very late TD. Much maligned QB Tom Savage even threw for 365 yards, completing 31 of 49 passes. The Texans' point differential being only -13 indicates to me they've played better than their record. As a favorite, the Texans are 14-3 SU/11-5-1 ATS the L3 seasons including a perfect 4 for 4 straight up when laying three or less at home. As for the 49ers, they are 2-10 SU and already thinking about next year. But there's some optimism here due to Jimmy Garoppolo now being the QB. They did win his starting debut, but only 15-14, and didn't score a single touchdown. In their last 22 road games. the Niners have just three wins. So again, B2B wins seems highly unlikely. In five of the last six games, they have not topped 15 points! In 8 of 12 games this year, they have not topped 15 points! Sure, the majority of those were w/o Garoppolo, but last week was. This is a team being outscored by more than a full TD per game on the year. My own power rankings have this spread above a touchdown. 10* Houston |
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12-10-17 | Charlotte v. Tenn Chattanooga -5 | Top | 50-64 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
8* Chattanooga (1:00 ET): UTC was not expected to be a major player in the SoCon coming into the year and has started just 4-5 straight up. But that record could be a lot better were it not for several close decisions that went the opposite way. Three times already, the Mocs have lost a game that was decided by five points or less. That includes their last time out, a 70-66 setback at Marshall where they at least covered as eight point dogs. I think it is significant that the Mocs are favored here. Yes, it is at home, but it's also illustrative of just how weak the opponent is as well. Charlotte is 0-5 ATS right now and has dropped their last three games - SU - overall. Lay the points. Chattanooga led by six over Marshall going into the half, but could not hold the lead and lost a close one. Making the result all the more frustrating is the fact Marshall went just 1 for 16 from three-point range. They simply could not stop the Thundering Herd on the interior as Marshall finished the game a somewhat ridiculous 28 of 46 on two-point attempts. Don't count on Charlotte doing the same, however. Even w/ 31 free throws attempted (made 22), they still could not stay within 20 points of Wake Forest on Tuesday and that was at home. The 49ers finished that game at just 15 of 47 overall from the field, 31.9%. They missed 18 of 23 three-pointers as well. Typically, Chattanooga has been pretty stout at the defensive end. At least at home they are, as they've held visiting teams to an average of just 59.2 PPG on 39.4% shooting. Getting this game at home "changes everything" for the Mocs as they are 0-4 SU away from home, but 4-1 SU inside of McKenzie Arena. They are particularly sharp from behind the three-point arc here, making 43.3% of all attempts from there at home. As for Charlotte, they have issues defensively as they're giving up 79.1 points per game for the year and their two "true" road games thus far have seen them yield 83 and 87 pts. As mentioned earlier, Charlotte has not covered a single spread this season (0-5 ATS) and they're also just 6-35 SU L3 seasons when priced as the underdog. Meanwhile, Chattanooga is a strong 28-5 SU its L33 home games. 8* Chattanooga |
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12-09-17 | Rockets v. Blazers +9 | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers come into tonight's game as losers of three straight and won't have center Jusuf Nurkic in the lineup. So that hardly makes them an ideal candidate to snap Houston's superb run, but thankfully they won't have to as the number of points we're getting from the oddsmakers here seem rather generous. Now the Rockets have been on fire since the start of November, losing only once in 15 games. They've won their last eight games - all by double digits! If any team has earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath as Golden State, it is the Rockets. But, on the road, the spread is just too high here. Take the points. For Houston, this is the end of a three-game road trip that began Sunday. As you'd expect, they had little to no problem beating the Lakers to start the trip off on the "right foot." Then, with ample time between games, they beat Utah 112-101 Thursday night. It's tough finding any deficiencies in this team's attack right now as James Harden leads the league in scoring and Chris Paul is making everyone else better (especially Ryan Anderson). But this is a big number to lay on the road, especially against a playoff caliber opponent. The last two times the Rockets had to play a 2nd road game in 3 nights, they got to face Atlanta and Memphis. This game will be a far greater challenge. Portland's three game losing streak has taken place entirely at home, which is very disappointing. This has always been a strong team at the Moda Center, so this year's 7-7 SU start makes little to no sense. I anticipate a "best effort possible" scenario tonight. Though it has a bit to do w/ a fairly weak early season schedule, the Blazers still rank 4th in the league in defensive efficiency. Offensively, they actually shoot better from behind the three-point line than does Houston, especially here at home (38.0%). With their backs seemingly up against a wall, I look for a strong performance out of the home dog tonight. 10* Portland |
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12-09-17 | Valparaiso +2 v. Ball State | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* Valparaiso (2:00 ET): It's pretty rare to find Valpo as the underdog in this in-state battle. Each of the L2 seasons has seen them favored by about 10 pts over Ball State. Now they did lose one of those games outright (here in Muncie) and won LY's rematch by only four. But given an 8-1 SU start this year, I'm fairly shocked the Crusaders are getting points here. Well, maybe not. They did lose Thursday, at Purdue, by 30 points. But that's a result we can now use to our advantage as it has created a ton of value, in essence making Valpo a "buy low" opportunity. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Ball State is off a shocking upset of Notre Dame as 18-pt dogs in South Bend. Previous results have conspired here for an ideal situation. Admittedly, Valpo had not really played an opponent of any real consequence before venturing into West Lafayette two nights ago. But, you still would have expected more from them. Now they were actually leading the Boilermakers early. But a 21-4 run by Purdue in the 1H all but sealed the game. Valpo shot just 33% from the floor overall and 3 of 16 from behind the 3-pt line. They attempted only 12 free throws and remain winless all-time at Mackey Arena. But it's important to realize that was just one game and this team was undefeated prior to it. They are 9-1 SU the L3 seasons after a game in which they allowed 80+ points. They are also 3-0 SU/ATS this season playing for the second time in three days. The mentality of it "just being one game" also certainly applies to Ball State and what they pulled off earlier in the week. No one, most notably the Fighting Irish themselves, saw the upset of Notre Dame coming. BSU opened this season 1-4 SU, including blowout losses at Oklahoma and Oregon. They had turned things around a little w/ three straight wins heading into the ND game, but an outright win in South Bend was still shocking. The Cardinals had not beaten a nationally ranked opponent in 16 years. There was a shocking edge in rebounding there for BSU, something that is not common in their games this season. Also, they won on a last second three-pointer. Note they are still giving up over 80 PPG for the year and are just 8-22 ATS in the favorite role the L3 seasons (1-6 laying three or less at home). 8* Valparaiso |
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12-08-17 | Mavs v. Bucks -6 | Top | 102-109 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks came through for me in their last game (barely!) by outlasting Detroit 104-100 as 3.5-pt chalk. Now comes a lesser opponent, Dallas, who has not performed well on the road this season. Granted, it's still fair to call Milwaukee a "disappointment" at this juncture, seeing as they are "only" 13-10 SU and this was a team that came into 2017-18 w/ aspirations of finishing near the top of the Eastern Conference. But the Mavs would "kill" to be in the position Milwaukee is in right now, considering they're just 7-18 SU, a record which has them at the very bottom of the Western Conference. They have been competitive of late (6-1 ATS L7 games!), but all that's done is drive this line down too far. Lay the short number here. Earlier I mentioned that the Mavs haven't played well on the road this year. That's actually an understatement considering a 2-8 SU record where they've been outscored by an average of 8.2 points per game. Wednesday, they lost by "only" seven up in Boston (97-90), but the offense was again very bad as the team shot below 40% from the field and managed only 33 total pts in the second half. Keep in mind that the Celtics were short-handed in that spot as well (no Jaylen Brown or Marcus Morris). The Mavs are one of the worst offensive teams in the league as they rank 26th in efficiency and points per game. The Bucks' record since the Eric Bledsoe trade is 9-4 SU, so maybe better things are on the horizon and they can ascend up the Eastern Conference ladder. Against the Pistons, a poor third quarter virtually "un-did" a very good 1st half, but a fourth quarter run was able to seal the game. This is not a deep team, but the bench did show up against the Pistons. Of course, a deep bench is not necessarily needed when you have MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 32.7 PPG (on 54.5% shooting!) so far in December. I haven't even mentioned yet that this is a big-time revenge spot for Milwaukee as they were embarrassed down in Dallas last month, losing 111-79! They were actually six-point road favorites in that contest, making tonight's spread seem like an absolute steal by comparison. Jump on the home team! 10* Milwaukee |
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12-08-17 | St. John's v. Arizona State -4.5 | Top | 70-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): There are only eight teams still w/o a loss this College Basketball season and one of the less heralded unbeatens is 7-0 Arizona State, who hosts St. John's tonight. While earlier in the week we successfully targeted a pair of (now former) unbeatens - Virginia and Nevada - I'm taking a different tact here. Certainly, the Sun Devils are going to lose sooner than later. But St. John's comes into Los Angeles tonight (this is a neutral site game) sans its second leading scorer, Marcus LoVett, who averaged a healthy 14.9 PPG. The Red Storm are a somewhat fraudulent 8-1 SU as they've yet to play a "true" road game and their only tough game (vs. Missouri) not coincidentally resulted in their only defeat. Arizona State is not only perfect straight up, they are also virtually perfect against the spread. They 'pushed' back in the season opener, which was a 20-pt win over Idaho State. Since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers w/ all but one SU victory (Kansas State) coming by double digits. And certainly there is no shame in beating Kansas State by only a bucket as that's the Wildcats' only defeat all season and the game was played in Las Vegas. The Sun Devils were even able to overcome KSU shooting 57% from the floor in that game. And then, they went on to beat a very good Xavier team, 102-86, in the Championship Game of the Las Vegas Tournament. Is ASU really the 16th best team (current AP ranking) in America? Probably not, but they've already beaten two teams that are far better than St. John's. As alluded to earlier, the Red Storm being short-handed here is the other key factor as is the fact they are making a cross-country trip while it's a relatively short "jaunt" for ASU. St. John's is very good defensively, but they struggle to shoot the ball (42.4 FG%) and that will become a bigger issue if LoVett does not play. This is a major step up from the last game where Chris Mullin's team faced Grand Canyon (on Tuesday). ASU (coached by Bobby Hurley) has been off since Saturday and shoots a far higher percentage from the field (53.1%!) than does SJU. In fact, their last game was the 1st time all season that the Sun Devils failed to shoot better than 50% from the floor or score at least 90 pts. Too much offense here. 10* Arizona State |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +2 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 60 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:25 ET): The events of last week (Saints win, Falcons lose) have conspired to make this line "jump the fence" w/ New Orleans now favored on the road. It will be interesting to see where it eventually settles (I'm writing this Weds morning), but regardless, I'm on the Falcons at what I feel is going to be a tremendous price. It doesn't happen all that often (more than you think though!), but the defending NFC Champs have been lethal as home dogs the past few seasons. They are 7-1 ATS in the role dating back to the 2013 season w/ five outright wins. That includes a SU win LY over Carolina (48-33). Bottom line is I don't see Atlanta dropping B2B home games, not w/ the stakes involved. From here on out, it's all division games for the Falcons and they'll probably need to win AT LEAST three of them to get back into the playoffs. In two weeks, they'll be at New Orleans, then close then season here at home vs. Carolina, a game which could very well determine the final playoff entrant in the NFC. Last week's loss to Minnesota snapped a three-game win streak which had seen the offense average almost 32 PPG. They were held to only three field goals by the vaunted Vikings defense while going a paltry 1 for 10 on third downs, largely due to facing a lot of unfavorable situations. New Orleans' defense transformation (much improved!) has been the subject of a lot of chatter this year, but their unit is not as strong as Minnesota's, regardless if CB Marcus Lattimore returns here or not. At the same time, Atlanta's top CB (Desmond Trufant) is expected back from a concussion. Then again, defense was certainly not the issue LW vs. the Vikings as they allowed only two touchdowns. Stopping the Saints' vaunted run game (Mark Ingram & Alvin Kamara) will be a challenge, but here at home, the Falcons have been pretty stingy as they give up only 17.8 PPG. In fact, for as much talk as there's been about the Saints defense, Atlanta's is basically allowing the same number of points per game. Homefield advantage on a Thursday night matters, at least when we're dealing with two competitive teams and I see the Falcons winning one that they "need to have." 10* Atlanta |
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12-07-17 | Texas-Arlington v. Northern Iowa -3.5 | Top | 58-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Northern Iowa (8:00 ET): Two typically strong mid-major programs square off tonight in Cedar Falls w/ N Iowa hosting TX-Arlington. The host Panthers, despite struggling last season, figure to be one of the big beneficiaries of Wichita State leaving the Missouri Valley for greener pastures. TX-Arlington is the favorite to win the Sun Belt. Last year, the Mavericks upset both St. Mary's and Texas in non-conf play, but ultimately fell short of their goal of making the NCAA Tournament (did win conf tourney). Both programs are off to strong starts this season w/ UT-Arlington at 7-1 and Northern Iowa at 6-2. But it's the latter's defense and homecourt advantage that should prove to be the difference-makers in this one. UT-Arlington has lost just the one time (by a single point at Alabama!), but they've also been involved in a number of close games. They have three wins by exactly five points so far, including the last one, which came at home against North Texas as a 16-pt favorite. Of note is that in the last two games, the Mavericks have scored their fewest number of points in a game this season. That benchmark will again be tested tonight when they face a N Iowa team permitting only 58.5 PPG overall and just 50.0 here in Cedar Falls. Only North Carolina in the season opener has topped 68 against the Panthers. This game will arguably be decided by which team defends the three-point line better. I believe that will be the home team. Northern Iowa's only two losses this year have been to North Carolina and Villanova. That's some pretty exclusive company. They're off an extended break here, having not played since last Wednesday when they downed UNLV 77-68 (in overtime) as a one-point favorite on this floor. Perhaps RPI is an outdated metric, but it's worth noting it currently has Northern Iowa at #26 in the nation! The Panthers rank fifth nationally in scoring defense. The fact they were able to still beat UNLV, despite shooting a woeful 2 of 14 from three-point range is actually a mark in their favor. Bennett Koch led the way w/ a career-high 30 points and Tywhon Pickford is #12 in the nation in rebounding. This is a good team, that's rested and playing at home. The situation favors them. 10* Northern Iowa |
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12-06-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-104 | Push | 0 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Coming into the season, the Bucks were thought to be a much safer "bet" than the Pistons to make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference. However, at least so far, Detroit has been the better of the two squads. They've opened up at 14-9 SU w/ wins over both Golden State and Boston (both on the road!). Milwaukee, meanwhile, stands at a somewhat disappointing 12-10 SU following its loss to the Celtics on Monday. But, since the Eric Bledsoe trade, things have gotten significantly better w/ the Bucks winning 8 of 12 overall. They haven't gotten to play many home games lately, so this is one they need to "make count" as it comes against a team they are not too far behind in the standings. Lay the small number. These Central Division rivals have already split a pair of early season meetings w/ each winning on its home floor. Both games took place in early November and it was a bad shooting night (35.3%) that cost the Pistons in a 99-95 loss the last time they came calling here. Interestingly enough, the Bucks were larger favorites for that game, so there's been an adjustment by the oddsmakers. While "time will tell," I still view Milwaukee as more likely to finish higher in the standings, so there's some value on them here, I suppose. I won w/ the Over in their last game (at Boston) where Giannis Antekounmpo's 40 points were not enough in a 111-100 loss. The problem was they allowed the Celtics to shoot 55% from the floor. Thankfully, the Pistons are nowhere near that prolific and average only 101.8 PPG on the road. Offensively, the Bucks have scored at least 100 pts in six consecutive games, averaging 107.5 PPG during that stretch. Detroit comes in off a tough 96-93 loss at San Antonio where they wilted late (scored only 40 pts in 2H). It was their third loss in a row as tonight marks the final chance to avoid a winless road trip. The last two games were both close, but note they did trail Philly big on Saturday before a late rally fell short. While the Pistons have been strong as underdogs so far this season (8-3 ATS), the number here is just too short to help them much and I don't see the Bucks losing. 10* Milwaukee |
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12-06-17 | Harvard -1 v. Fordham | Top | 47-45 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Harvard (7:00 ET): The Crimson were expected to be a contender in the Ivy League this season w/ LY's champ Princeton not expected to be as strong. But it's been a rocky start to the season. Granted, you can put blame on the fact they haven't played a home game since November 12th. (Tonight marks their eighth consecutive game away from home). But the Crimson have been favored three times in their last six outings and lost all of them. At least the majority of the games, save for ones at St. Mary's and Northeastern, were close. In fact, all but two Harvard games this season have been decided by single digits, four of them by six points or less. Tonight, it's "their turn" to win a close one. Fordham comes in w/ a 3-4 SU record despite not having played any "true" road games. They did go down to Jamaica for two games and were handled in both, including a 24-point loss to Florida State. As is the case w/ Harvard, the vast majority of the Rams' games this year have been tight ones. However, losing to East Tenn State at home was not a "great look" nor was beating Maine by only one there on Saturday. In fact, they needed OT to get by the Black Bears on what was a terrible shooting night for both teams. This is not a deep Fordham team and two players remain questionable for undisclosed reasons (Bunting, Ohams). I should also mention that Fordham has won only once in its last six tries as a home dog of three points or less. These teams met last year w/ Harvard winning by 12 (64-52) on its home floor. Fordham fell victim to dreadful shooting again, as in a 33.3 FG% overall, which included 5 of 19 from three-point range. It should be noted that Harvard has taken on a far more challenging schedule thus far, including a game at Kentucky their last time out (only lost by 9, despite shooting 37.1%). They've yet to really have a great shooting night this season, but thankfully Fordham (40.7% overall) has been even colder. Harvard did make 12 three-pointers against Kentucky. 10* Harvard |
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12-05-17 | Wizards v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 106-92 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): The Blazers are catching the Wizards in the second night of B2B road games and that's an ideal time to strike considering just how awful the Wiz looked last night in Utah (lost 116-69!) and the fact they are still w/o John Wall. So what, on paper, could have very well been an "even" matchup is now anything but w/ Portland having had the last two days off to stew over a home loss to New Orleans. That actually made it B2B home loss for the Blazers, who also fell here to Milwaukee, 103-91, back on November 30th. I can't see them losing another; not w/ how wounded the opponent is here and given the situation. Lay the points. Washington has not shot well recently as they are making only 41.6% of all field goal attempts the L5 games. Quite frankly, they haven't shot the ball very well away from home all year (43.4%) and that means trouble against Portland team that holds its opponents to 43.9% shooting and is #4 in defensive efficiency. There's no two ways around it; last night was a complete disaster for the Wizards as they shot just 28.7% from the field while allowing the Jazz to shoot 56.8%. That's one of the biggest FG% discrepancies I have ever seen in a single game. It was the fewest points scored by any team in a game this season and the Wiz have now lost six of their last nine overall. This will be the 2nd time Portland has gotten to face Washington w/o Wall as they were actually the 1st opponent after the All-Star suffered his knee injury. The Blazers won by three out in D.C., which was the 2nd of B2B road games for them and near the end of a long East Coast trip. The spot is far more desirable this time around and the team will come in highly motivated after losing B2B games outright as home favorites. 10* Portland |
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12-05-17 | Nevada v. Texas Tech -5.5 | Top | 76-82 | Win | 100 | 24 h 43 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Basketball, so now seems like as good a time as any to start "picking them off." One of the LEAST heralded from the "lucky 13" is Nevada, who not only brings a perfect 8-0 SU record to the table, but is also 7-0-1 ATS. That push came last time out in an 11-pt win at UC Irvine. Credit the Wolfpack for playing a decent number of "true" road games to this point (this will be #5), but this marks their furthest trip East to date and it's the second in four days. Nevada may be the team that's ranked in the latest AP poll (#22), but Texas Tech is higher in virtually every reasonable power rankings system and is the deserved favorite here. They hand Nevada it's first loss tonight! Texas Tech is off its first loss, which took place Thursday against Seton Hall, who is also ranked. That game was played in Madison Square Garden and the Red Raiders (who in the interest of full disclosure, I was ON) blew a three-point halftime lead, eventually losing by 10. What was most disconcerting was the defense. Tech came into the game ranked 5th nationally in scoring defense (55.3 PPG) and 2nd in FG% allowed (33.5%). But they allowed Seton Hall to shoot better than 50% from the floor, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. The Pirates accounted for the two highest scoring halves of basketball against the Red Raiders this season. I don't see a repeat of that from Nevada. Yes, the Wolfpack come in averaging a healthy 85 PPG. But now it's time for their scoring average to take a tumble as this will - easily - be their toughest test to date. Texas Tech is a deep team; 10 players average 10 minutes or more and at least 4.9 points per game. They are led by Keenan Evans' 15.9 PPG. Again, I point to the defense as Nevada isn't Seton Hall and back at home, the Red Raiders should reassert their dominance at that end of the floor. In terms of the situation, it clearly favors Texas Tech, who was off this weekend, while Nevada is playing the second of B2B road games. 10* Texas Tech |
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12-05-17 | Virginia v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (7:00 ET): For the third straight year, these schools are renewing acquaintances and both come in ranked in the Top 20. Virginia, at #15, is one of the 13 remaining schools nationally w/o a loss. WVU, who checks in at #20 in the latest poll, lost it's first game by 23 to Texas A&M. But the Mountaineers haven't lost since and for the 1st time in the three-year span, get to host the Hoos. They're hoping for a repeat of LY when they pulled the upset in Charlottesville, 66-57 as eight-point dogs. They wound up making a run to the Sweet 16 before being ousted by eventual runner-up Gonzaga. Virginia, who two years ago made the Elite 8, was eliminated in the 2nd round by Florida. Virginia has played one "true" road game thus far, but it was in-state against Va Commonwealth. They did win and cover, 76-67 as 6.5-pt chalk, but keep in mind the Rams were early on under the direction of a 1st year HC. This will clearly be the Hoos' biggest challenge to date against a fast-paced opponent that forces 22 turnovers per game. Virginia, who has held every opponent but Va Commonwealth to below 55 pts, plays at a very deliberate pace. So the outcome here will largely depend on tempo. Again, the Cavaliers handled Va Commonwealth's pressure well, but WVU is a different animal in Morgantown where they're winning by an average of basically 40 points per game! It was an ugly opener against A&M, but since then Bob Huggins' team hasn't looked back, scoring 83 or more in every game during a seven-game win streak. They topped 100 last time out against overmatched NJIT. Virginia has covered all but one of its games, but this is a short number they're taking against an opponent that's won 33 of its past 37 home games. I see Virginia falling for the first time here as everyone's going to lose eventually and now is the Hoos' time. 8* West Virginia |
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12-04-17 | Pistons v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 93-96 | Loss | -103 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Playing severely short-handed, the Spurs very nearly knocked off the Thunder last night, losing by only three and easily covering as 8.5-point dogs. They went into the game w/o Tony Parker, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili (rest) and of course Kwahi Leonard (who has yet to play this season) and then lost Kyle Anderson to what is believed to be a MCL injury. Good thing they still have the best coach in the game. Greg Popovich is no dummy and while he essentially conceded victory on Sunday, he'll have a much stronger unit on the court Monday night at home. Note that Popovich also rested Pau Gasol for the entire second half last night. All the players, with the exceptions of Leonard and Anderson, are expected back tonight. That makes this spread, at home, seem way too low. Lay it! Detroit is 0-2 on it current road swing w/ losses to Washington and Philadelphia. They trailed the 76ers by as many as 18 in the second half before a late rally started making Philly backers nervous. The Pistons are an impressive 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS vs. the Western Conference so far this season, including a win over Golden State! They've also beaten Boston. But the Spurs are a team that has given them fits through the years, especially here in San Antonio where the Pistons have won just 12 times in the last 43 years. The Spurs have swept the season series each of the last two seasons, including two double digit victories last year. Note that the Pistons lost Saturday night despite the 76ers shooting the ball at only a 40% clip. The Spurs still play outstanding defense and rebound no matter who is on the court, so they are a team that must be respected. They have actually inched slightly ahead of Boston for fewest points per game allowed in the league, though they remain slightly behind them in defensive efficiency. Based on how he coached last night, Popovich clearly was more concerned about this game and I'll put faith in that plan. With the top players returning, we should see a dramatic increase in production at the offensive end tonight as there's no way they'll shoot 40% for a second straight game. 8* San Antonio |
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12-04-17 | Iowa v. Indiana -4.5 | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Is it really time for conference play to begin? The Big 10 got an early jump with conference games starting over the weekend and has three more games on tonight's schedule, including this one in Bloomington where mediocre Indiana hosts mediocre Iowa. Both squads enter at 4-4 SU having dropped their respective Big 10 openers. For Indiana, they were in a terrible spot (coming off the Duke game) and lost at Michigan 69-55 (as 7.5-point dogs). Iowa lost at home, by four, to Penn State. Overall, the Hawkeyes have now dropped four of five including losses as favorites to LA Lafayette and South Dakota State. That makes it pretty tough to like their chances tonight in Assembly Hall where the Hoosiers are looking to snap their own two-game losing streak. Lay the short number. Indiana drew the "short straw" in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge having to play #1 Duke. Sharp action might have been on them, but IU failed to cover the closing number (+9), losing 91-81. The Hoosiers played the Blue Devils tough as there were 11 ties and 10 lead changes in the first half alone. But a 17-4 Duke run in the 2H sealed the game. It certainly didn't help that the Hoosiers shot only 16 of 26 from the FT line and 5 of 21 from three-point range. But then, Archie Miller's team saw its streak of three consecutive games w/ 80+ points end Saturday in Ann Arbor as they shot just 40% from the field and fell into an early hold too deep to climb out of. Oddly, IU attempted only ONE three-pointer in the entire 1H. Bottom line is that I expect them to shoot much better at home. Iowa is in far more "dire straits" than Indiana right now though. For the first time since '01, they lost at Carver-Hawkeye to Penn State, 77-73 on Saturday. Maybe, we shouldn't be all that surprised, however. The Hawkeyes were four-point underdogs in the game and as noted above, lost to both LA Lafayette and South Dakota State already. Their first "true" road game was a complete disaster as they were blown out by 24 at Virginia Tech. Still though, Iowa never led against Penn State and turned the ball over 18 times. Not good signs for this game. Nor is the fact they made only four three-pointers in their loss to the Nittany Lions. I think the three-point line will be the difference again in this one and w/ Iowa giving up over 80 PPG its last five contests, Indiana's offense gets back on track. 10* Indiana |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:25 ET): This line hit its high point mid-week and I immediately jumped on it as even in a "down year," Russell Wilson and the Seahawks are still a force to be reckoned with at home. This is a VERY rare instance of them getting points here and Wilson is 3-0 ATS all-time as a home dog, winning all three times straight up! Overall, Wilson is 14-7-1 ATS as a dog of any kind in his pro career. Furthermore, the Seahawks have been leading or within one possession of the lead in all but TWO of their previous 115 regular season contests! Think there's value now? I realize that the Eagles are "flying high" (pardon the pun) this year and everyone wants to bet them, but the market has now shifted too far with them. Take the points and I give Seattle a great shot at the outright upset. Philadelphia absolutely annihilated the Chicago Bears last week, winning 31-3 w/ a massive 420-140 edge in total yards (24-8 in first downs). That win puts them in rarified company as one of only NINE teams (Since 1989!) to post four consecutive victories by 20 points or more. The previous eight teams, not surprisingly, did NOT fare well their next time out, posting an ATS record of just 2-6. This makes sense as oddsmakers will begin to attach a much higher price on a team after they consistently cover. The Eagles have now covered EIGHT consecutive games, but those four straight 20+ pt wins came against the 49ers, Broncos, Cowboys (no Elliott) and Bears. None of those are likely playoff teams and three of them are going to be picking very high in next year's Draft. Truth be told, the Eagles have played a VERY easy schedule to this point. The only team they beat that I'd consider a "lock" for the playoffs was Carolina and that was a five-point game. Seattle's four losses this year have been by a COMBINED 20 points. Shockingly, they have lost their last two home games. One was to Washington, but they actually held a commanding 437-244 edge in total yards in that game. Then there was the Monday nighter vs. Atlanta, their first game w/o Richard Sherman. (They also finished w/ the edge in total yds in that one!). Despite being 3-2 SU at home, the Seahawks are outgaining opponents by nearly 100 YPG here. Wilson is actually having just as good a year as Wentz (check the stats). Plus, under Pete Carroll, the team is 13-2 SU in home night games. You won't get a better price on the Seahawks at home as long as the current regime remains. Take the points. 8* Seattle |
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12-03-17 | Panthers v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 34 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The NFC South has emerged as the strongest division in the sport this year w/ three teams currently 7-4 SU or better (Tampa Bay the exception). The two teams meeting here are tied at 8-3 w/ the Saints holding the tiebreak due to an outright win in Carolina back in Week 3, 34-13, as five-point underdogs. That win totally transformed the Saints' season. Going into the game, they were 0-2, having been outscored 65-39 and giving up over 500 YPG. But something happened after upsetting the Panthers and it was on the defensive side of the ball. New Orleans would go on to win eight straight games, allowing 17 pts or less six times during that stretch. They did lose last week, 26-20 at Los Angeles, but IMO that's created some value here on them at home. Lay the points! With New Orleans losing last week, Carolina is now the hottest team in the division as they're on a four-game win streak. However, three of those wins did come at the expense of Tampa Bay, Miami and the Jets, three teams that aren't going anywhere. I did have the Panthers LW vs. the Jets, but it was a fortunate cover due to a late FG and they were outgained 391-299. They also actually trailed early in the 4Q. While Carolina does have the slight edge defensively in this matchup, their offense averages about a full TD less per game compared to New Orleans. The Week 3 loss was one of five times this year that the Panthers' O failed to top 20 points. Both teams come into this game a little banged up. New Orleans, on the defensive side of the ball, is really hurting - especially in the secondary. But CB Marcus Lattimore has not been ruled out for this game. However, perhaps the biggest absence for this matchup is now on the Carolina defense as DE Charles Johnson was suspended on Friday (4 games) for violating the league's substance abuse policy. The Panthers allow roughly 1.6 more rush yards per attempt w/ Johnson off the field, which is significant. As a reminder, they are getting ready to face Drew Brees in the Mercedes Benz Superdome. This year's Saints' offense can also run the ball a lot more effectively than past seasons, thanks to rookie Alvin Kamara. The Panthers offense is likely going to be w/o TE Greg Olsen and possibly RB Christian McCaffery. Though Carolina has been good as a dog this year, I think it's notable that New Orleans has won all seven games in which it has been a favorite, covering six times. This is a pretty short price on them at home. 10* New Orleans |
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12-03-17 | UCF +11 v. Alabama | Top | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
10* Central Florida (2:00 ET): Saturday marked a bit of a bittersweet day on the campus of UCF. While the football team completed an unbeaten regular season (will go to Peach Bowl) w/ a thrilling, double OT win over Memphis, at the same time it was announced that HC Scott Frost will be departing for Nebraska (not a shock). The basketball program has far less fanfare in Orlando, but Sunday will do something that the football program would love to do and that's play Alabama. You have to wonder what the pointspread would be on the football field (my guess is it would be a little higher) if these two schools met. I'm not sure what I'd do in that hypothetical matchup, but here on the basketball court Sunday, I'll be taking the points. Now the Golden Knights arrive in Tuscaloosa (first "true" road game) on a three-game losing streak and in two of the losses they were held below 50 points. But at the same time, two of the losses were by three points and the competition was pretty fierce. They played West Virginia, St. John's and Missouri, all of whom rank in my top 50. The one blowout was at the hands of West Virginia, part of the Advocare Invitational (in Lake Buena Vista), the best of the lost and in that game UCF simply could not make a shot as they finished at 24.5% overall including just 1 of 12 from three-point range. Suffice to say, they probably won't have another shooting night that bad the rest of the season. Now, defensively, there are no issues here as the Golden Knights are holding their opponents to just 37.8% shooting for the year. Taking this many points, that's huge. Alabama has just the one loss, the now-infamous game vs. Minnesota where they were down to three players and still only lost by five. They bounced back Wednesday w/ a win over Louisiana Tech, but only by three as 11.5-pt favorites. The big key here is that the Crimson Tide, a guard-oriented team, is going to have trouble stopping UCF's 7'6" monster Tacko Fall, who so far is averaging 11 points and 7 rebounds per game. Purportedly, the Tide will counter w/ Daniel Giddens, who normally does not see much playing time (only averages 2.4 pts, 2.0 rebounds in 11 minutes per game). Note that the Tide had to overcome a double digit deficit in the 2nd half just to beat La Tech earlier this week as they trailed by 11 w/ 14 minutes left. UCF is a desperate team w/ size and will be a very "tough out" Sunday afternoon. 10* Central Florida |
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12-03-17 | Broncos v. Dolphins +1 | Top | 9-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): This is a battle of two teams that are sinking fast while being disasters at the betting window. Denver's 3-1 start is a distant memory as they had an early season bye and have since lost seven in a row, not covering a single time in the process. In fact, and this is downright shocking, they have been "in the money" (i.e. covering) for roughly only 6% of actual game time! Miami, whose fall from grace was fairly easy to predict, has taken a similar path. They were 4-2 SU at one point, but it was a fraudulent record to say the least, and they've now dropped five straight. Four of those losses have been by double digits. So something will have to give here and w/ QB Jay Cutler cleared, I believe it's the Dolphins in better position to take this relatively "meaningless" Week 13 matchup. Denver does not have a viable starting QB on its roster. They've tried three different options - Trevor Siemian, Brock Osweiler and Paxton Lynch - and none of them have had any real success. After cycling through, it's back to Siemian this week. Siemian will have to get used to a new offensive coordinator here (Bill Musgrave) as when he started earlier in the season Mike McCoy (since fired) was the one calling plays. Compounding matters is the fact that Siemian is one of several Broncos that has contracted the flu this week. Broncos backers will continue to lean on the fact this team has outgained its opponents this season, but the defense is not what it was the L2 years and the offense just can't score points. Only once in the last seven games has Denver topped 20 points and it was in a 51-23 loss to the Eagles. They average 14.4 PPG on the road. Miami has an even worse offense, but at least their scoring average jumps to 22.4 PPG at home and they have Cutler w/ a better array of weapons. Cutler is facing a former team here, so he should be motivated. For what it's worth, the Dolphins are a respectable 4-5 SU when Cutler starts. Getting back to Denver's defensive decline, they now rank 28th in the league in points allowed. They are also now w/o their top defensive back, Aqib Talib, due to a suspension (for fighting Raiders' WR Michael Crabtree). I just can't see why this line has "flipped" during the week (Denver now favored) as the Broncos are 0-5 SU/ATS this season on the road. 8* Miami |
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12-03-17 | Chiefs -3 v. Jets | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -120 | 116 h 9 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (1:00 ET): Not sure Chiefs' stock could be any lower than it is right now following B2B outright losses as big favorites, to the Giants and Bills. Well, it would sink lower if the team falls victim to the "New York trifecta" this week and loses outright to the Jets. Shockingly, money is in on the J-E-T-S even as short home dogs here. I understand why as KC appears to be falling apart at the seams. What was once an insurmountable lead in the AFC West (team started 5-0) has now been trimmed to just one game as they've lost five of six overall. But these are the Jets they're playing, a team I successfully targeted last week w/ the Panthers and walked away w/ the cover. With all their recent struggles, KC is laying a shorter number and I think there's value here. Facing a Bills team that had given up a total of 135 pts the previous three weeks, KC was shockingly out-first downed 13-1 in the 1H last week. This Chiefs' offense has been a disaster the L3 weeks, scoring just 36 points total and the cries for Patrick Mahomes to replace Alex Smituh have grown louder. It is stunning to look back at how Smith was being considered an MVP contender back when the team was 5-0 w/ wins over the Patriots and Eagles. I reiterate that this is an extreme "buy low" situation. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a road favorite of three points or less. Also, teams off an outright loss as DD favorites have come back to cover at roughly a 66% clip the following week since '05. Yes, I know the Chiefs were in this exact same spot LW (coming off the loss to the Giants), but can lightning really strike twice? I look for KC to run the ball effectively here against a Jets' run defense that is nowhere near what it once was. Last week, the Jets allowed 145 yds rushing to Carolina. I'd like to see the Chiefs recommit to the run game after attempting just 19 rushes in two of the last three games. The Jets' offense remains inept as long as Josh McCown is the QB. Note that while KC is +31 in 4th quarter point differential, the Jets are -73. Even w/ the offensive slump, the Cheifs are still 7th in the league in scoring. The Jets are 20th. By the way, the Jets have also lost five of their last six games including losses to Miami and Tampa Bay. Unlike KC, they have no 5-0 start to lean on. 8* Kansas City |
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12-02-17 | Ohio State -5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Wisconsin is unbeaten and in "pole position" (currently #4) to make the College Football Playoff, but Ohio State is the betting favorite here and for good reason. I've said this before - and it bears repeating - that the Buckeyes would likely be favored over every team in America (on a neutral field) besides Alabama. The Big 10 Championship Game is played at a neutral site (Indianapolis), so the line is no surprise to me whatsoever. Now the underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this game, but the situation here is a little unique in that it's the DOG attracting the far higher ticket count. Yet, despite that, we saw the line continue to rise early in the week. That's typically a tell-tale sign that "sharper" dollars are on the favorite and that's who I'm rolling w/ Sat night. The big news out of Columbus this week is that QB JT Barrett will play Saturday, despite having had surgery (on his knee) Sunday. The knee was apparently injured by an unknown cameraman on the sidelines of the Michigan game. The Buckeyes still were able to beat their rival, mind you, despite being w/o Barrett for a significant portion of the game and spotting the Wolverines a 14-0 lead. I'll note that, by the numbers, Ohio State was - by far - the best team in the Big 10 in the regular season. They outgained conference foes by a whopping 254 YPG (nearly 2:1 margin), outscoring them by 26.4 PPG. All you need to know is that they were favored by double digits at Michigan while Wisconsin was just a touchdown favorite over the Wolverines - in Madison. It is absolutely okay to question Wisconsin's schedule. Their best win may or may not be Florida Atlantic. If not the Owls, then it would be Northwestern and that too was an early season affair. They caught Iowa the week after the Hawkeyes stunned the Buckeyes and that game was in Madison. So was Michigan, and they were down in the 2nd half before Wolverines' QB Brandon Peters was knocked out. Badgers fans will want to point to how "strong" their team is in trenches, but Ohio State is actually stronger across both the offensive and defensive lines. Undefeated teams in November/December the L4 seasons are just 42% ATS across College Football. Worse yet for Wisconsin is Urban Meyer's 30-17-1 ATS record vs. ranked opponents. This won't be the 59-0 massacre that the Buckeyes laid on the Badgers three years ago, but OSU will win comfortably. 10* Ohio State |
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12-02-17 | Fresno State +9 v. Boise State | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (7:45 ET): Of all the Conference Championship Games on Saturday, the matchup in the Mountain West just might be the oddest. Like most, it's a regular season rematch. But where this one differs is the intial matchup took place just last week and the teams had NOTHING to play for. Fresno State won 28-17 (as 6.5-pt dogs), but that was at home and it was pretty clear they were the ones taking the game far more seriously. Those expecting Boise to bounce back have to be delighted at the line for Saturday night's rematch on the "Smurf Turf," but there's also an inherent danger in simply expecting the Broncos to "turn it on" here. Note that FSU was just as dominant, if not moreso, in MWC play this year. I'll take the points. Really, the fact that Fresno State is even in this game is pretty remarkable. The Bulldogs were 1-11 SU in 2016 and while most metrics were "pointing up" for this year, you still must tip your cap to the job done here by HC Jeff Tedford (remember him?) in year one. Tedford did inherit 16 returning starters, 10 of them on the offensive side of the ball, which is his speciality. However, it has been the defense that has really impressed. This group ranks 12th in the nation, allowing just 17.3 points per game. That is stunning turnaround in one year's time as LY, the Bulldogs allowed 30.9 PPG. They are especially stout against the run, allowing just 117.3 YPG. Last week, they held Boise State to just 3.5 yards per carry and 107 yds total over land. Fresno State outscored its Mt West foes by an average of 14.5 PPG this year and outgained them by over 100 yards per game. Boise State's MOV in conference play was identical, but they outgained Mt West opponents "only" by 84.9 YPG. The fact that Fresno State allowed only 13.1 PPG in league play is impressive, no matter how you slice it, and leads me to believe it's going to be a low-scoring affair Sat night. Only once - in an upset loss to UNLV - have the Bulldogs surrendered more than 21 pts to a MWC opponent this year. That makes taking the points seem like a "slam dunk" to me. FSU has defied the oddsmakers all year long (9-2-1 ATS) in taking a division that most thought should simply be handed to San Diego State at the start of the year. And so much for homefield advantage; Boise State is just 4-13 ATS its L17 home games. Take the points. 8* Fresno State |
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12-02-17 | Syracuse v. Kansas -11.5 | Top | 60-76 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Kansas (5:30 ET): It's still (very) early in the season, but for my money, Kansas is the #1 team in the country. Currently, they are ranked #2, so the pollsters aren't too far off. However, I can't say the same for the oddsmakers in the spot as they have the Jayhawks favored by NOT nearly enough in a matchup w/ Syracuse down in Miami, a battle of 6-0 teams. However, as we know, "not all unbeatens are created equal" and in this instance we have an underdog that hasn't really played anybody or even had to leave the Carrier Dome (this early season philosophy has long been a hallmark under Jim Boeheim). I do NOT anticipate a repeat of the '03 NCAA Championship Game when a Carmello Anthony-led Syracuse team beat Kansas. Lay the points in this spot. Kansas' schedule hasn't exactly been a "murderer's row," but they did leave Lawrence once to beat Kentucky (Champions Classic) in the second game of the year. There were some struggles offensively in that game (only scored 65 pts) and perhaps there is some concern here going against Syracuse's trademark zone defense. But the Jayhawks are simply too talented. Thanks to averaging 94.5 PPG overall, they own the nation's top scoring differential at +33.0 PPG. All five starters are currently averaging at least 13.5 PPG. Last time out, they blitzed Toledo w/ a 30-2 run in the first half, shooting 75% from the floor en route to a 96-58 win and cover. Other than Kentucky, no opponent has even come within 34 points of the Jayhawks this season. Yes, those opponents haven't been great, but destroying them in the fashion they have is a mark in Kansas' favor. A key in this game will be three-point shooting. KU is making an astounding 45.2% of its shots from behind the arc while Syracuse is at a paltry 29.1%. Compounding this issue is the way each team defends the arc. Kansas' opponents are making just 30.3% of their 3-pt attempts while Syracuse opponents are making 34% of theirs. While Jayhawks' HC Bill Self is on the record as saying "any" of his five starters are capable of scoring 20+ (pts) on a given night, Boeheim has lamented his offense by saying "we need to start making some shots." What's been key for the Orange thus far is a massive edge in second-chance points, but that likely will not exist here against a bigger, longer opponent and given the disparity in three-point shooting, I just don't see any way Syracuse keeps this game close. 10* Kansas |
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12-02-17 | Georgia v. Auburn -2 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 48 m | Show |
8* Auburn (4:00 ET): Like many games on Conference Championship Weekend, it's a regular season rematch in the SEC w/ Auburn taking on Georgia. Much has changed since that first meeting down in Jordan-Hare, namely the Tigers are now the team in the driver's seat. It all started w/ them destroying UGA last month, 40-17 as a 2.5-pt home dog. Now they're a 2.5-point fave on a neutral field. That's justified though given how one-sided the regular season matchup was. Georgia isn't the only #1 team that Auburn has beaten over the last month as last week (also at home) they downed rival Alabama, 26-14 (+4.5) in the "Iron Bowl." Those anticipating any kind of letdown here should note that the Iron Bowl winner has gone a perfect 7-0 SU in SEC Title Games (5-2 ATS) since 2009. Auburn is too hot right now; lay it. Since losing to Auburn (only loss this year), UGA has rolled two opponents by a combined score of 80-20, but that was Kentucky and Georgia Tech. The 'Dawgs did beat one Top 10 team during the regular season, Notre Dame, but that was by just a point and doesn't look so impressive now w/ the Fighting Irish having since been blown out by Miami and Stanford. Remember that this team has a true frosh at QB as well. Even having played Auburn once, I'm not convinced the coaching staff can make the necessary adjustments along the offensive line given the discrepancy in personnel they face going against this Auburn defensive line. Georgia avoided two of the big boys in the SEC West (Alabama, LSU) and faced only three ranked teams all year. That matters. With their dominant defensive line likely to hold the Georgia offense in check, I'm not as worried about the potential absence of Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson (who went for 167 yds in the reg season matchup). Johnson is listed as probable anyway though and the Tigers have depth at the position. QB Jarrett Stidham continues to improve by the week and led the SEC w/ a 68.5 completion percentage. Three weeks ago, I said that this Auburn team could very well make a playoff run and right now there is no doubt that they are one of the four best teams in America. Looking at their two losses, one was close (early in the year) at Clemson (current #1) and the other saw them blow a 20-0 lead (at LSU). It won't be as lopsided as the first go-around, but the Tigers will win here and move on to the CFP. 8* Auburn |
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12-02-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -7 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 97 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (12:30 ET): Like many of the Conference Championship Games this weekend, this is a regular season rematch where the underdog is playing w/ revenge. In the case of TCU-Oklahoma, I played the Sooners in Norman back on November 11th when they were about a TD favorite. Now they are laying the same, only at a neutral setting. This might cause reasonable minds to believe the value is on the Horned Frogs here, but considering the ease w/ which OU disposed of them three weeks ago, I say "not so fast." It was a 533-424 edge in total yardage for the Sooners in the 38-20 win and take note they didn't even score in the second half. This offense is simply going to be too good again for TCU to keep up. Lay the points. Oklahoma is #1 in the country, averaging 594 yards per game. They are #4 in scoring at 45.3 points per game. I took the Over in their game last week, which won easily (cashed early 3rd quarter!), yet even I was amazed by how efficient the Sooners were there. Understand that they possessed the ball for less than 25 minutes of actual game time, yet ran up 646 total yards and 59 points! Once again, with the game out of hand, they didn't even bother scoring in the fourth quarter. They scored on each of their first NINE drives of the game, eight of those being touchdowns, and it could have been 9 for 9 if they didn't run out of time at the end of the first half (had to settle for a field goal). As good as TCU HC Gary Patterson is at coaching defense, I wouldn't want to be stepping in front of this OU offense right now. TCU's only regular season loss besides OU was to Iowa State, who also beat the Sooners. Don't get me wrong; I have a tremendous amt of respect for the Horned Frogs. I even had them as my top CFB win total this season (at Over 7.5), which cashed easily. The Over on their game last week was my top CFB play of the weekend as they put up 45 points on a downtrodden Baylor team. But, again, Oklahoma is just on a different level right now. They put up 62 points and over 700 total yards against Oklahoma State last month and that was in Stillwater. When facing an opponent that has a winning record, the Sooners are 17-1 SU and 15-3 ATS the L3 seasons. They are also 7-1 SU/6-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. The TCU defense will also be w/o safety Nick Orr here - due to suspension - for the first half. By the time he returns, it could be too late for the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma ran for 200 yds in the first meeting, the most allowed in any game by the TCU defense all season. 8* Oklahoma |
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12-01-17 | Pacers v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): The Raptors may never make a NBA Finals, but as per usual, they're being undervalued in the regular season. Right now, it is they (not Boston) that can claim to have the top net efficiency rating at +7.7 per 100 possessions (Boston +6.4) in the Eastern Conference. They can also claim a better traditional (read: actual) scoring differential than the Celtics YTD. They may not have the win streaks of the Celtics (or Cavs), but this remains a top tier team in the East. Tonight, they host an Indiana team that has surprised in the early going by posting a winning record (12-10 SU) and hanging around in the top eight of the Conference. But I don't buy the Pacers as being able to even maintain their current level of production and will fade them here. Sure enough, the Pacers are off a 21-point loss in Houston Wednesday night. This is a fairly odd two-game road trip of Houston & Toronto. Now before getting blown out by the Rockets, Indiana was on a 5-1 SU/ATS run w/ the lone loss coming to Boston. They are also 5-1 ATS coming off a double-digit loss this season. But the fact they've been blown out so many times already (seven double-digit losses) doesn't really bode well for their future. Nor does the number of points they're allowing per game, which is currently 107.8. Over the L4 games, that number has grown to almost 110 PPG. Traditionally, the Pacers have NOT played well "North of the Border" as they are just 14-28 ATS their L42 visits to Toronto. The fact they attempted only SIX free throws in the game against Houston demonstrates an inability/unwillingness to get to the basket. This is a revenge game for the Raptors as well. Exactly one week ago, they blew a double-digit lead in the second half and lost 107-104. That was in Indiana though. Considering the Raptors were two-point favorites in that game, it certainly would appear there's some value on them here in this rematch. The third quarter has been an issue lately as they've blown double digit leads in three of the last four games. But Wednesday against Charlotte, they were able to bounce back in the 4Q for a comfortable 126-113 win. The good news is that this game is at home where the Raptors average an impressive 114.0 PPG. If Indiana could simply "outscore" Toronto in this situation, I'd give them more of a chance, but the bottom line is the Raptors are third in offensive efficiency while the Pacers are sixth. Plus, the Pacers were just 7 of 28 from three-point range on Wednesday. 10* Toronto |
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12-01-17 | Holy Cross v. Manhattan -1.5 | Top | 54-70 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
8* Manhattan (11:30 AM ET): It's a very early start time over in Belfast, Northern Ireland (!) and neither of these two teams are playing well. Holy Cross has lost three straight, all by double digits, while Manhattan has done the Crusaders "one worse" by losing its last four. However, two of those defeats came by four points or less and in Sunday's loss to Fordham, they turned the ball over 25 times, which doesn't seem "repeatable." Defensively, HC is a mess as they've allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 53% from the floor and in their last game, the opponent (Albany) had 10 more FG attempts, which is how the final score got so lopsided. I look for Manhattan to have its best offensive game of the season (to date) and get the win/cover. Holy Cross shot the ball pretty well last Saturday against Albany (home game), finishing at 50%. They also had three double digits scorers. However, as I mentioned above, the problem was not only that they allowed the Great Danes to shoot 53.4%, but they also had 10 more attempts. Not surprisingly then, we find that HC was dominated on boards, getting outrebounded 32-23. The three-point line was another factor as Albany shot 47.6% from behind the arc and HC was at only 27.8%. Defense has been an issue for the Crusaders as they are giving up an average of 77.2 points per game. They have also been outrebounded in EVERY game so far. Ironically, both of these teams started their respective seasons 2-0, which included wins over Harvard by an identical final score of 73-69! Both beat the Crimson on their home floors. In both cases, our two teams here jumped out to a double digit lead and had to hold on. As I said earlier, in their last game, Manhattan turned the ball over 25 times and as a result fell to Fordham by a final score of 70-57 as 4.5-pt underdogs. If the Jaspers turn the ball over that many times again, clearly, they're going to lose. But, fortunately, TO's really hadn't been a problem in any of the first five games. Again, HC has been blown out in three straight games. This is their first lined affair, but I reckon that had the oddsmakers hung a number on any of their previous three games, they'd been 0-3 ATS. The travel isn't an advantage for either side, but I simply believe Manhattan to be the better team. 8* Manhattan |
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11-30-17 | South Carolina +1 v. Temple | Top | 60-76 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
8* South Carolina (9:00 ET): Save for a loss to Illinois State in the relocated Puerto Rico Classic, Frank Martin's Gamecocks have played pretty well this season (5-1 SU), carrying over from LY's surprise Final Four run. Not many players returned from that group, but one that did - Chris Silva - led the way Monday night w/ a career-best 26 points and 10 rebounds in a 78-61 win over FIU, the team's first "true" roadie of this campaign. All four South Carolina victories this season have been by double-digits. That's what I'm looking for tonight as they play a neutral site game vs Temple tonight in Madison Square Garden, as part of the Under Armor Reunion Doubleheader. (First game is Seton Hall vs. Texas Tech). Temple hasn't played as many games as USC (only 4) and comes in at 3-1 SU, impressive because they have yet to play an actual home game! They are, however, off their first loss, which came at LaSalle on Sunday. It was a particularly brutal setback for the Owls considering they led most of the way and even by double digits in the second half. But, over the final 10 minutes, they allowed LaSalle to score 29 points after allowing just 58 in the first 30. The key was a three-minute scoreless stretch, which allowed the Explorers to catch up. The Owls figure to struggle to score here against a South Carolina defense which is allowing only 39.5% shooting for the year, a hallmark under HC Martin. It wasn't just Silva getting the job done for South Carolina against FIU; four players scored in double figures, including Frank Booker, who has been a solid addition via transfer. Booker (came from Florida Atlantic) leads the team in three-pointers made (17) and is shooting 40.5% from the arc. He is a senior. Both of these teams have fared remarkably well in neutral site affairs recently w/ USC at 11-3 ATS L14 and Temple doing them "one better" at 12-3 L15. So there's no real edge there. But how about the fact that MSG is where South Carolina won its Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Games in LY's stunning NCAA Tourney run? Perhaps that's an edge? The Gamecocks have not allowed more than 69 pts to any opponent this season. FIU shot just 4 of 17 from three-point range against them and USC had a major edge in rebounding while forcing 17 turnovers. They are the better team here. 8* South Carolina |
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11-29-17 | Miami-FL +5 v. Minnesota | Top | 86-81 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (9:15 ET): The Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge continues on Wednesday w/ the latter currently holding a commanding 6-1 advantage. (I cashed Florida St last night, albeit barely!). The Big 10's only win thus far came in perhaps the most marquee game to date, Purdue over Louisville, last night. It's also important to remember that Michigan State did just clobber North Carolina in a non-Challenge game on Sunday. That said, I'm sticking with the ACC today. It is interesting to note that in four of the six games scheduled for tonight, the Big 10 team is favored. One of those is Miami @ Minnesota, a matchup of two unbeaten teams ranked in the top 12. For Miami, this will be the first "real" test and their first "true" road game as well. Minnesota has won at Providence, but other than that, their schedule has been pretty soft too. I'm taking the points. Given the level of competition, the "U's" scoring differential is probably what you'd expect. It's currently sitting at +25.8 points per game w/ all five wins coming by at least 11 points. Their latest, 86-65 over North Florida, came Saturday. Despite making only three three-pointers (on 15 attempts), the Hurricanes still manage to score 86 points, which is a pretty good sign. It was the the third time in four games scoring that many. I don't have much of an explanation for why they only scored 57 against LaSalle last week, but it should be noted that they did hold the Explorers w/o a single three-point FG in that game. Sophomore Bruce Brown may have "turned a corner" in the game vs. North Florida as he went for a team-high 14 pts. This is a very balanced team for HC Jim Larranaga and they have seven outright wins (in 16 overall tries) as an underdog the L3 seasons. There's only one Pitino left in the head coaching ranks and he is at Minnesota w/ Richard (Rick's son) leading the charge. The Golden Gophers are 7-0 SU and coming off wins over UMass and Alabama in the Barclays Center Classic over the weekend. While some may cite the stronger level of competition as a positive for Minnesota here, I think it could work against them as Miami has had less to deal with coming into tonight. Also, while they did dominate from start to finish against a ranked foe (Bama) on Saturday, note the Gophers only had to play against three players for a portion of the second half! Therefore, all of a sudden, a five-point win there doesn't look so impressive, does it? Minnesota has allowed 74 or more points four times already this season, which is a concern when laying points to an opponent as talented as Miami. 10* Miami FL |
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11-28-17 | Nuggets +2 v. Jazz | Top | 77-106 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Denver (10:05 ET): These are two teams that figure to be fighting for the last couple of playoff spots in the Western Conference all season long. Right now, both are in the top eight w/ Denver slightly ahead at 11-8 SU (Utah 9-11). On the surface, this does NOT appear to be a great spot for the Nuggets, who are only 3-6 SU on the road (8-2 at home) and off a double-digit win (0-6 ATS in that role this season). But they are the better team here, in my opinion, and Utah is more likely to struggle moving forward w/o a key player (Rudy Gobert). The Jazz just aren't as strong (or deep) as they were last year, meaning injuries will be more difficult to overcome. Unlike Denver, who has the necessary depth to overcome Paul Milsap being out the next three months. The Nuggets beat Memphis a lot worse than the final score of 104-92 showed on Friday night as they shot better than 50% from the floor and had a 2:1 edge in rebounds. Again, that tells me that they'll be just fine w/o Milsap. Part of that has to do w/ having Nikola Jokic on the roster. In the three games since Milsap went down, Jokic has averaged 20.3 points, 11.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists. He topped all of those averages against Memphis. Now, we know the Grizz are a downtrodden team right now, playing w/o its best player (PG Mike Conley). But guess what? Utah is not only now w/o Gobert, they're still trying to figure out how to replace the lost production from Gordon Hayward skipping town! I've been really impressed w/ how the Nuggets have dropped B2B games only one time all season. They've also been off since Friday, so they're well-rested. Utah is off a 121-108 win over Milwaukee on Saturday, their second straight w/o Gobert. But prior to that, they'd dropped 8 of 10. The Jazz's last four wins have all come at the expense of Eastern Conference foes and three of them were: Orlando, Brooklyn and Chicago. Defensively, the Jazz's numbers remain impressive (allow only 96.3 PPG), but that will be tested here by a Nuggets offense that comes in averaging 107.8 PPG. The gap here in offensive efficiency (in Denver's favor) exceeds the gap on the defensive end of the floor. The Nuggets are the better team here. 8* Denver |
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11-28-17 | Florida State -4.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 78-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:00 ET): Of all the matchups in this year's Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge, this one probably ranks near the bottom for most in terms of interest. However, it should be pointed out that both of these teams are undefeated, Florida State at 5-0 and Rutgers at 6-0. However, in the case of both (particularly the latter), that's a byproduct of a weak schedule. Rutgers has not even yet had to leave campus (nor are they tonight) and their opposition thus far has been every bit as poor as it reads (NY City Tech, C Conn St, Cleveland St, Coppin St, Bryant and East Carolina). FSU at least "dared" to leave Tallahassee for a short bit, playing Fordham and Colorado State in Jamaica. The Seminoles have yet to win a game by fewer than 19 pts and thus I'll lay a short number w/ them here. The 'Noles last game was an easy 113-78 win over The Citadel on Friday. Now, we shouldn't get too excited about that point total as those familiar w/ the sport will tell you that many teams score 100+ against The Citadel. However, FSU did hold the Bulldogs to a season-low 33.3% shooting. That's notable b/c LY, The Citadel led the nation in scoring. So, it was actually the effort on the defensive end that was the greater achievement there. FSU is a deep team w/ plenty of length and size. Rutgers, like The Citadel, will struggle to score in this game. Mark my words. Four of Rutgers' six games have not been lined, which should tell you about the level of competition right there. They've yet to play a team ranked higher than #245 in my own power rankings! Florida State comes in at #40 for me, so this will be quite the major step up in class for the Scarlet Knights. Yes, I'm conceding that the Seminoles haven't really played "anyone" either, but is there anyone willing to make the claim that Rutgers is the better team here? I certainly hope not. Even w/ the homecourt advantage, Rutgers won't be able to keep this one close as they're likely to be crushed on the interior by an opponent that is shooting almost 53% from the field, for the year. 8* Florida State |
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11-27-17 | Nets +17 v. Rockets | Top | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (8:05 ET): The Nets got me yday, taking advantage of a Mike Conley-less Grizzlies team that is REALLY struggling right now, and won outright 99-88 as 5.5-point pups. It was their fifth consecutive cover (2-3 straight up). But they're certainly not getting any respect here tonight as they are huge underdogs at red-hot Houston. For my money, the Rockets are the best team in the league not named "Golden State" as they even have a better WL record than the Dubs (one fewer loss) and are outscoring opponents by an average of 10 PPG. But this spread is too high. Take the points. The Nets used a 32-18 third quarter to take the advantage for good last night in what was pretty easily their finest defensive effort of the season to date. Now, they'll clearly be tested tonight and it's not a good sign that they are allowing the second most points in the league. However, the Nets are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season against teams averaging 106 or more points per game and 7-1 ATS vs. teams w/ a winning record. Last week, they covered against both Golden State and Cleveland (LY's two NBA Finalists), losing by 10 pts or less to both. They also played a very good Portland team tough on Saturday afternoon, losing by only two (127-125). The fast pace at which Brooklyn plays at might cost them tonight, but not to the degree the oddsmakers are calling for. For Houston, this will be the second game in a row that they are monster favorites. They couldn't cover a 19-point spread against the Knicks on Saturday, winning by "only" 15. Now they have won four straight by an average of 23.3 PPG. But eventually, those kind of margins can't be sustained. Case in point; the Rockets actually trailed the Knicks by as many as 22 points Saturday night! There was a 45-point swing that resulted in them leading by as many as 23 (crazy game!), but still, it's a dangerous way to play when you're "turning it on and off." Note the Knicks were w/o their two best players, Kristaps Porzingis and Enes Kanter, also. The Nets are 2-0 ATS this season when coming off a double digit win. 8* Brooklyn |
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11-27-17 | Alabama State +38 v. Cincinnati | Top | 51-83 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
8* Alabama State (7:00 ET): Normally, "best practice" when selecting an underdog, in any sport, is to have a belief that there's a chance they could take the game straight up. Clearly though, that is NOT the case here. But look at this pointspread for a minute. All we are asking for is a team NOT to lose by FORTY points! I think that's doable. And I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Cincinnati basketball team and thinks they should be ranked even higher than they currently are (#12/#13 in AP/Coaches). But coming off an impressive showing in the Cayman Islands, I look for the Bearcats to "look right past" this game as they have a huge date w/ city rival Xavier looming this weekend. Take the points. While Cincy is 6-0 SU (3-1 ATS), Alabama State finds itself on the opposite end of the spectrum at 0-6 SU (0-1 ATS). Yes, their one lined game saw them getting 35.5 pts and they failed to cover, losing 114-56 at Oregon. But, let's give the Hornets some credit for trying, shall we? With the exception of their last game, the Hornets have done nothing but play "true" road games. They were hardly competitive in any of them, but other than Oregon, they didn't lose any by more than 34 points. It's certainly a "low bar" we're setting for ASU here, but that's where the oddsmakers come in. Now, the Hornets did just lose last week (101-97) to a Savannah State team that Cincy beat by 30 points. But a 61-point second half there (!) should at least give them some hope for tonight. That was a neutral site affair, by the way, played in Chattanooga, TN. Not only does Cincy have Xavier looming, but they also have dates w/ Florida, Mississippi State and UCLA coming up as well. Simply put, this game is unlikely to hold the players' interest, even though they can easily win it w/o much effort. Only twice in the L20 seasons have the Bearcats been favored in a game by more than 30 points. Also, it should be mentioned that they are playing "home games" this season off-campus, at Northern Kentucky due to their own arena undergoing renovations. Maybe that matters some? Regardless, Alabama State should be way more up for this game than Cincinnati and should keep it within 40 points. 8* Alabama State |
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11-26-17 | Texas A&M +2.5 v. USC | Top | 75-59 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (10:00 ET): We've got a pair of unbeatens meeting Sunday night in Los Angeles w/ USC hosting Texas A&M. The visitors will have revenge on their mind for LY's 65-63 loss in College Station where they were six-point favorites. Both teams are ranked (USC #10 and A&M #16) in the latest AP Poll while the Aggies are a few spots lower (#19) according to the Coach's (who also have USC #10). However, I have A&M rated as the better team. Tip your cap to the job Andy Enfield is doing at Southern Cal, but I'm not sure we're not "putting the cart before the horse" when it comes to this season's presumed Pac 12 favorite (along w/ Arizona). I expect payback this year from the Aggies. This will be Texas A&M's first "true" road game, but they have won at neutral sites over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Penn State. Every win so far (5-0) has come by double digits, including two nights ago at home over lowly Pepperdine (81-65). That margin was actually not close to what the oddsmakers were calling for (-28), but I think that can be chalked up to looking ahead to this game."I thought our energy wasn't very good at times, but when we needed it we were able to raise it up a level at the end," Texas A&M coach Billy Kennedy said. "Winning two big games (in New York) and then coming home, we didn't play like a veteran team." It should be noted that A&M still played very good defense against the Waves, as they held them to just 38.7% shooting from the floor, including 4 of 19 from three-point range. They'll need to bring that same defense here as USC comes in shooting at a torrid 46% from three-point range in the last two contests, wins over Vanderbilt and Lehigh. Needless to say, I think A&M is going to hold them in check as shooting at that kind of rate from distance is hard to sustain anyway. Last year, the Aggies held the Trojans to just 5 of 26 shooting from three-point range. The level of competition USC has faced thus far has not been all that challenging. The win over Vandy was a "true" road game, but came by only four points. Both times the Trojans have been a home fave of three points or less under Enfield, they've lost outright. A&M has already pulled one upset this year, beating West Virginia by 23 when they were seven-point dogs. In four of the five games so far, A&M has allowed 65 or fewer points. They are #9 in defensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings. That will be the difference in this one. 8* Texas A&M |
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11-26-17 | Packers +14 v. Steelers | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 55 h 35 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:30 ET): These two proud franchises (combined for 10 Super Bowls) seem to be trending in very different directions right now. Pittsburgh, ten days removed from trouncing Tennessee 40-17, has won five in a row and should probably be considered the top team in the AFC right now. Green Bay's season went down the drain when Aaron Rodgers broke his collarbone and they're just 5-5 SU following an ugly, shutout loss at the hands of Pittsburgh's rival (Baltimore) last week (23-0). As a result, we now have a pointspread that would have deemed unfathomable at the start of the season for this Sunday night matchup. I'll take the points, noting the Packers covered for me as dogs two weeks ago, winning outright in Chicago. Since Rodgers went down, the Pack are just 1-4 SU w/ the lone victory coming against the Bears. They've failed to cover the spread in all four losses, but the marketplace has also been slow to react to just how signifcant the dropoff from Rodgers to Brett Hundley is. However, that being said, last week marked the first time under Hundley that GB lost a game by more than 13 points. It's not as if they've been losing to bad teams either as all four defeats came against teams w/ winning records, two of them being division leaders. While they were shutout, the problem last week vs. the Ravens was five turnovers. They actually outgained Baltimore 265-219. Obviously, it's tied to the QB situation, but this is an unprecedented pointspread for the Packers under HC Mike McCarthy. Before the win over the Titans last Thursday, Pittsburgh had not topped 30 points in any game this year! It also should be noted that they were the beneficiaries of a +4 TO margin vs. Tennessee and total yardage was almost identical (only +33). I did call for their highest scoring effort of the season vs. Tennessee (had the Over), but the bottom line is when you're averaging only 22.7 PPG, it's difficult to cover a spread as large as this one. Over the L3 games. the Packers defense has allowed just 64, 55 and 58 yards rushing. Anything similar would almost certainly keep them in this game until the very end. 8* Green Bay |
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11-26-17 | Calgary -7 v. Toronto | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Calgary (6:00 ET): It's time for the 105th Grey Cup and it should come as no shock to see that Calgary is once again involved. The league's preeminent franchise of the last decade, the Stampeders are making their third appearance in this game in the last four years. They will be looking to erase the memory of LY's heartbreaking loss to Ottawa and win their first Grey Cup since 2014. Toronto has won more Grey Cups than any franchise in league history (16), but they are only a 10-9 SU team as it always seems as if the Eastern Division comes into this game looking significantly weaker on paper. Of course, such was the case LY when Calgary lost to Ottawa, but revenge will be theirs this year, even though the Argos should have the edge in crowd support w/ the game taking place in Ottawa. After a poor end to the regular season (lost 3 straight!), Calgary won the Western Division Final (6th straight year appearing in that game!) over rival Edmonton last week, 32-28 as five-point chalk. This is the fourth time in five years they finished first in the West and 10th straight year they've won at least 10 games. But they actually enter this game on a five-game ATS skid. Nevertheless, they have beaten Toronto eight straight times and covered each of the last five. In the two matchups this year, the Stamps outscored the Argos by more than a 2:1 margin (64-31) and outgained them by 248 total yards! Botth wins came by at least 16 points even though they trailed in each! Remember that before the "slump" at the end of the regular season, Calgary was 13-1-1 its first 15 games. Toronto, who finished in last place in 2016, has made a big jump this season and at no point this season have they been more than a game above .500. At one point, they were 4-7 SU and appeared to be going "nowhere fast." Credit them for winning six of their last eight, but they play in the weaker division and have only outscored the opposition by 30 pts all season. Compare that to Calgary, who has a league best point differential of +178. Defensively is where the Stamps are superior here as they are allowing only 18.1 PPG, a league low. They are also #1 against the pass, forced the most turnovers and have the most sacks. The running game has been huge for Toronto during their late season surge w/ production nearly doubling in that area since Week 13. But I don't look for them to have much success here. Last time these teams faced off, the Argos were held to just 18 yards rushing and didn't have a single offensive touchdown. 10* Calgary |
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11-26-17 | Nets v. Grizzlies -5.5 | Top | 98-88 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Memphis (6:05 ET): Things have unravelled in a hurry for the Grizzlies as they've lost seven straight, largely a result of losing PG Mike Conley to an achilles injury. Conley will be out for an indefinite period of time and that definitely makes it a rather "gloomy" outlook for the Grizz, who have not been able to top 94 pts in any of their last four games. This losing streak actually began when Conley was still in the lineup, but the decline in scoring came once he was injured. Help comes this evening though in the form of the Brooklyn Nets and their atrocious defense. The Nets are determined to play at a fast pace and the result of that has been them allowing an average of 114.9 points per game, second most in the league. It's telling that Memphis is still favored here. Brooklyn has lost three straight and five of their last six. In each of the L3 games, they've given up at least 118 points and all of those games ended in regulation. Now, the competition has been fierce w/ them facing the Warriors, Cavs and Blazers. But the road has been unkind to this team as their record away from the Barclays Center is 2-7 straight up as they're shooting only 43.9% from the field in those games. The line here is notable due to the fact that - usually - you'll find the Nets as a much larger underdog. They're being outscored by seven points per game away from home, so this line looks like a bargain. I had the Under in Memphis' last game as they fell at Denver, 104-92. Prior to that, they'd lost four in a row here at home. They've actually lost six straight here at the FedEx Forum, their last win coming all the way back in late October over Houston! Because they haven't covered a single spread during their seven-game skid, there's going to be value on them in the short term. Again, it is telling that they'd still be favored here. Brooklyn has been covering in defeat (4-0 ATS L4), but twice was a double-digit dog in that span. 10* Memphis |
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11-26-17 | Saints +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 40 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): I believe the better team is getting points here and I say that as someone who has tremendous respect for the Rams, even labeling them as a top five team. But the Saints are on a different level right now w/ eight consecutive wins after an 0-2 SU start. Something you may have heard before is that New Orleans is just the third team in league history to have a win streak of six or more games following an 0-2 start to the season. The other two both won the Super Bowl. Now, I definitely remember playing against these Saints last week as they never were "in the money" as TD chalk against Washington. In fact, they needed a miracle rally in the final minutes of the 4Q just to force overtime, where they won 34-31. But they're not favored this week and that's key. The Rams had a win streak of their own (four games) snapped LW w/ a humbling 24-7 defeat at the hands of the Minnesota Vikings. After scoring a TD on the opening drive, the Rams never scored again. In fact, they were held to just 179 total yards the rest of the way. This is an offense that came in as the highest scoring in the entire league, mind you, something that has come as a shock considering how poor they (specifically QB Jared Goff) looked a year ago. But that was under Jeff Fisher. Sean McVay has engineered a remarkable turnaround here. But the Rams offense isn't the only unit that's pulled off a remarkable turnaround in 2017. The Saints defense, long the albatross holding QB Drew Brees and the offense back, has improved exponentially this season. They've pulled it off through a variety of off-season acquisitions, both via the draft and free agency. Incredibly, before the comeback last week vs. Washington, New Orleans had allowed 17 pts or fewer in six of its last seven games! Now there are some significant injuries for the Saints on the defensive side of the ball, the main one being DE Alex Okafor tearing his ACL and being done for the season. But let us not forget about Brees and that offense, which gained 535 total yards last week! They're averaging 474.7 YPG the L3 weeks. They also now have a running game to lean on w/ the "two-headed monster" of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Note the Rams' defense is only 20th against the run and hasn't exactly faced the toughest slate of rushing attacks. While the Saints defense has lost Okafor, the Rams offense is w/o WR Robert Woods, a key loss. Key is that this will be the first time since Week 3 that New Orleans is an underdog. Good value as they are 14-6 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ nine outright victories. The Rams are just 1-4 SU/ATS the L5 times they have been listed as home chalk of three points or less, including 0-2 this season. 8* New Orleans |
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11-26-17 | Bills v. Chiefs -9.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (1:00 ET): In the upcoming offseason, I think we'll take a look back at Week 11 as the seminal moment of the Bills season. It's when HC Sean McDermott gambled and elected to bench QB Tyrod Taylor (despite overachieving) and instead start the unproven Nathan Peterman. The gamble was a disaster as the Bills lost 54-24 to the Chargers w/ Peterman throwing FIVE interceptions on just 14 attempts. By the end of the game, Taylor was back in, but you have to wonder about his relationship w/ the head coach and organization moving forward. Meanwhile, a lot of people are starting to wonder about the Chiefs. Remember when we all thought they were the best team in the league? Well, after that 5-0 start (including Wk 1 thumping of the Patriots), they've dropped four of five, including an embarrassing defeat LW (in OT) where they were DD favorites over the Giants. Most will view this as a big number, and it is, but it's justified as KC is in far better position to bounce back this week. With five of their final six opponents currently sporting a losing record, I think the Chiefs are in fine position to win the AFC West for a second straight year. Now, you might have thought the same going into last week's game in New York. Oddly, despite high winds, Andy Reid elected to pass the ball 60% of the time. The offense did gain 363 total yards, but was held w/o a touchdown (three field goals of 31 yds or less) and turned the ball over three times. The good news is that those problems are correctable. Normally, the Chiefs are winning the turnover battle. I expect them to here. I also expect them to increase their sack total from last week, which won't be hard b/c it was 0 against the G-Men. Buffalo could be w/o its starting left tackle, Cordy Glenn, again. This is also the right defense to be facing right now as the Bills have allowed 135 pts the L3 games, which is the fourth most over any three-game span in the league since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger! Truth be told, when Buffalo was winning (started 5-2!), they were doing it w/ "smoke and mirrors." They have been outgained in every game since Week 1 and rank 27th in yards per game since Week 9 and 29th in yards allowed. They've been outgained by nearly 115 YPG during that stretch and are -65.0 YPG for the season. This is a below average football team, playing on the road w/ a shaky QB situation. Not good. While the Bills have lost three in a row by double digits, only one of the Chiefs' four losses have been by more than six points. They're at home, off an embarrassing defeat and just a better all-around team compared to Buffalo. 10* Kansas City |
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11-26-17 | Panthers -5 v. Jets | Top | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 15 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): From a power rankings perspective, this may not look like a slam dunk, but I'll side w/ what is the far better team, laying a short number. Both the Panthers and Jets are off byes. But that's basically where the similarities end. Carolina is 7-3 SU and in prime position to get back to the playoffs, even in a crowded in NFC South. The Jets are 4-6 SU, a record which has surprised many as they were pegged to be the worst team in the entire league coming into the season. Where I see the mismatch here is Carolina's defense (holding opponents to 77 YPG below their season averages) against a Jets offense that doesn't top 20 pts very often. The Panthers have a number of ugly wins already in 2017 and this will be yet another. They'll cover the spread though. This Carolina defense has been really impressive so far as they are #2 in the league in yards allowed (trailing JAX by less than 3 YPG for top spot) and also top five in points allowed (18.0 per game). They shouldn't find it too difficult stopping a Jets' offense being quarterbacked by journeyman Josh McCown. In the game before the bye, the Jets had only three points before scoring a late TD against the Bucs (lost 15-10) and for the third time in four games didn't even gain 300 total yards. This matchup (Carolina D vs. Jets O) is every bit the mismatch that it appears to be on paper and we're in very good shape on this half of the ledger. The Jets are 24th in the league in YPG differential. The Carolina offense is also now getting going w/ an avg of 439 YPG the last three weeks. They scored 45 pts in a near 600-yard effort vs. Miami in the last game. Now Cam Newton gets his favorite target (TE Greg Olson) back and the Jets happen to struggle at defending the tight end position, having allowed at least 67 yds to opposing TE's in 6 of 10 games thus far. Furthermore, the running game has gone over 200 yds in B2B games (Newton had 95 vs. Miami). The Jets are only 23rd in the league against the run, a shell of the unit they were when they had Sheldon Richardson clogging up the middle. This is an ideal matchup for the road favorite, who is 60-24 SU vs. teams w/ a losing record in the 2H of the season (55-28 ATS) including eight consecutive victories. 8* Carolina |
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11-25-17 | Notre Dame v. Stanford +2.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 35 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-25-17 | Celtics -2 v. Pacers | Top | 108-98 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): After having their 16-game win streak snapped Wednesday in Miami, the Celtics wasted little time in getting back into the win column as they routed Orlando last night by a score of 118-103, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. The game was a much bigger blowout than even that final indicates as Boston enjoyed a 30-point lead entering the 4th quarter. Tonight, they play another Eastern Conference foe off to a surprisingly good start, that being Indiana. The Pacers have found plenty of success at the betting window as well, covering five straight games and all of those have been SU wins as well. But, unlike in Beantown, I don't expect the winning to continue in the Hoosier State and once again the oddsmakers are undervaluing the Celtics. Lay the short number. Under Brad Stevens, Boston has typically been a great ATS team when playing on the second night of a back to back. Ironically, despite all their success vs. the number, the team is 0-2 ATS in this spot this season. However, note the situations. The first time, they were caught having to go to Milwaukee, the game after losing Gordon Hayward for the season and losing a close one to rival Cleveland on Opening Night. The second time was a trip to Atlanta where they were laying a big number. It seems as if bettors are "wanting" to bet against Boston right now, something I get (they can't go on covering like this forever), but because of this mindset, I feel oddsmakers are offering some real "soft" lines that we can take advantage of. The Celtics remain #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and are allowing just 95.7 points per game. Indiana also played last night, here at home, and upset the Toronto Raptors as two-point home underdogs. Now don't you think the Celtics should be bigger favorites than the Raptors? Last night's Raptors-Pacers game certainly could have gone either way (Toronto actually led by 10 at halftime) and Indiana would not have won if not for the effort from Victor Oladipo, who had a team-high 21 points. Sadly, Oladipo left in the 4th quarter w/ a knee injury and is listed as questionable to play tonight. His absence would certainly make the Pacers job a lot tougher tonight. I just can't see Indiana beating Toronto and Boston on consecutive nights and note they are allowing 107.2 PPG this year, which is tied for fifth most in the Eastern Conference. This will already be the SIXTH time the Pacers have had to play on back to back nights this season! 10* Boston |
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11-25-17 | Georgetown -4 v. Richmond | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (6:00 ET): Little was expected from Patrick Ewing, perhaps the school's most famous alumnus, and Georgetown this year. But his Hoyas have started 3-0 SU w/ every win comig by at least 26 points! Now, the competition has hardly been "fierce," nor have they had to leave home. The latter changes this evening w/ a visit to Richmond, however, just like the Hoyas' previous three opponents, the Spiders should provide little resistance. They're 1-4 SU w/ three of those losses coming by double digits, two of them when favored. Consider they've already lost a game - by 33 (!) - Jacksonville State this year! Not to mention Delaware came here and won by 13. That's a pretty ominous sign for the season and I look for Ewing's chargers to remain unbeaten here. While Richmond is off a trip to the Cayman Islands (lost twice), Georgetown has been off for the last week. Last Saturday, the Hoyas beat MD-Eastern Shore 83-57. It was their third straight non-lined affair to start the season. Both Jessie Govan and Marcus Derrickson turned in double-doubles and Kaleb Johnson scored a career-high 24 points. The game was over by halftime as the Hoyas led 40-19 and they actually started the game w/ a 35-8 run! Now, we all figure that once Big East play gets underway, the Hoyas are going to struggle. But that's still a month away. Ewing is going to enjoy a grace period here no matter what (has never coached at any level), but he'd sure like to continue racking up the wins to earn further good will among the fan base. A (very) soft non-conference schedule should allow him to do so. Richmond did not do well in the Cayman Islands, meaning their backers won't be able to stash any money there. They first lost to to Cincinnati (no shame there) 75-48 as 16.5-pt dogs. Then came a loss to La Lafayette, 82-76 as seven-point dogs. That one was particularly painful as they actually led by as many as seven in the second half and by six w/ just seven minutes to go. Similar to G'town in the Big East, not much is expected from Richmond this year in the Atlantic 10. It's pretty telling that the Spiders are listed as underdogs here. They've covered only 9 of their previous 27 home games and outright losses to the likes of Delaware and Jacksonville State may mean things will get worse before they get any better. The Hoyas have covered 14 of teir last 18 when listed as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Georgetown |
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11-25-17 | Alabama -4.5 v. Auburn | Top | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 50 m | Show |
8* Alabama (3:30 ET): This year's installment of the Iron Bowl is as anticipated as any Alabama-Auburn matchup in recent memory. Certainly, Auburn fans will recall the 2013 game when they upset a top-ranked Bama team here at Jordan-Hare (as 10-pt underdogs) on the now infamous "kick-six." This year, the Crimson Tide again enter the regular season finale unbeaten and ranked #1 in the country (3rd time in last 5 seasons!) and control their destiny for the CFP. But so does #5 Auburn, who would also be in the CFB if they win the next two weeks. The lookahead line for this game was as high as Bama -10 before Auburn's thumping of Georgia two weeks ago. That and a number of injuries for the Tide have conspired to drop it pretty dramatically, to the point where I now feel the value is all on Alabama. Lay the points. Both teams got to enjoy "tune-ups" last week. Alabama shutout FCS foe Mercer 56-0 while Auburn beat La Monroe (one of the worst FCS teams) 42-14. It was what happened the prior Saturday, however, that has people believing in the dog here. Auburn absolutely crushed then #1 Georgia 40-17 (as 2.5-pt underdogs) while Alabama survived its lone real scare of the season, winning 31-24 at Mississippi State (Tide were over +100 in total yds). But let's not forget that Auburn also has blown a 20-point lead and lost at LSU and was dominated by Clemson early in the season. They have lost five of the last six Iron Bowls with Alabama's victories coming an average of 24 PPG. Last year, it was 30-12 in Tuscaloosa w/ Bama as a 17-pt favorite. The Crimson Tide do have some very real injuries to be concerned about as they are down FOUR linebackers, which could mean trouble facing sensational Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson. But Nick Saban recruits so damn well that this is the only program in America that can successfully endure such attrition. Offensively, Bama is far more balance and dynamic than Georgia, which I believe will be the key to this game. Remember that UGA had a true frosh starting QB on the road. Alabama leads the SEC in rushing yards (270.3 per game), yards per carry (6.03) and rushing touchdowns (35) and QB Jalen Hurts is a tremendous dual threat. Auburn has some injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well and, to me, so many people are thinking upset here that I feel it's best to go on the other side w/ the most proven commodity in the sport. All but two Bama wins this year have been by double digits and one that wasn't was a game they allowed a TD in the final minute. 8* Alabama |
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11-25-17 | Ohio State -11.5 v. Michigan | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 21 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): One of these years, Jim Harbaugh is actually going to beat Ohio State. It just won't be this year. I'm still bullish on Harbaugh in Ann Arbor, but this clearly wasn't going to be his year as he brought back the least experienced team in the country and has had to cycle through three quarterbacks due to a combination of injury and ineptitude. There were some metrics that suggested a better season could take place for Michigan, but the bottom line is that they always seem to suffer one upset (Michigan State this year) and never win as an underdog. Last week's somewhat sad showing in Madison (lost 24-10 to Wisconsin) dropped Harbaugh to 0-5 SU as a 'dog at his alma mater and he's covered the spread in just one of those games. Ohio State would be favored over every team in the country not named Alabama and is the play here. The Buckeyes come in ranked #9 in the latest CFP Rankings, but still have a shot at making the playoff if everything breaks right for them. A number of teams ahead of them are going to lose in the next two weeks, so if they win here and next week's Big 10 Championship Game against Wisconsin, there could be an argument for them to be in the top four. While I view them as a top four team on paper, it will be hard for me to buy an argument considering they were blown out twice - by Oklahoma (at home) and Iowa (ouch!). But looking at the raw numbers, you'll find a team that has outscored its Big 10 foes by an amazing 227 points (Wisconsin #2 at +133) and outgained them by an average of 280 yards per game. They've scored 48 or more points SEVEN times in 2017. For the sake of comparison, Michigan has yet to top 36 points in any game this season. The Wolverines enter this game likely having to start John O'Korn at QB, which is too bad because redshirt freshman Brandon Peters was playing well before being knocked out of last week's game. Tests did come back negative for Peters, so he could conceivably play here, but how effective would he be? Original starter Wilton Speight was knocked out of the Purdue game back in September and hasn't played since. Michigan has a great defense (#9 in efficiency), but Ohio State isn't far behind (#14) and the gap on the other side of the ball is so great that it really doesn't matter. Of course, the Buckeyes have won 12 of the past 13 meetings, including all five under Urban Meyer. In fact, the lone loss to Michigan in those L13 seasons came in the year w/ interim Luke Fickell at the helm. Look for OSU to roll. 8* Ohio State |
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11-24-17 | Northern Colorado v. Youngstown State +4 | Top | 80-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
10* Youngstown State (9:00 ET): With all the Holiday Tournaments going on around the country, this game is certainly likely to be off most bettors' radar, but I think it offers some solid value on the dog. Youngstown State may be only 2-2 SU, but they've scored at least 78 pts in every game, so getting some help from the oddsmakers is a nice luxury to have. Now, the Penguins have played two lined game thus far, neither working out, even though they were the dog in both. That's because they allowed over 100 pts to both Kent and Canisius. Their two wins came at the expense of Franciscan University and Westminster (PA). But it's not as if Northern Colorado is any "great shakes" as they've twice lost by double digits, only to come back and win games at Pepperdine (by two) and over non-board team Northern New Mexico. This is a neutral site game, played in Sioux Falls as part of the Sanford Pentagon Showcase. I'll take the points. Not much is being expected from YSU this season. They finished 8th in the 10-team Horizon League last season and that's where they are being pegged again this season. They have a 1st year HC in Jerrod Calhoun, who found success at D-II Fairmont State, who he led to the title game last season. Calhoun replaces Jerry Slocum, who retired after 12 seasons on the job. There is some talent here, notably senior Cameron Morse, a two-time All-Horizon League selection. Sophomore Braun Hartfield, a Cleveland-area native, scored a career-high 31 pts in the loss to Canisius last week. Freshman Garrett Covington is off to a nice start as he scored 18 pts (career-high) in the last game and is shooting 72% from the field. He also had seven steals in the team's first win of the year. Northern Colorado is off a 39-point win, which I guess is why they are favored here, but I'm not sure they deserve to be. The Big Sky rep is just 4-10 ATS when laying points the previous three seasons. The Bears finished towards the bottom of the Big Sky last season. They don't shoot the ball particularly well (40.3 FG%), including 26.9% from three-point range. They easily could be 1-3 SU entering this game. 10* Youngstown State |
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11-24-17 | South Florida +11 v. Central Florida | Top | 42-49 | Win | 100 | 67 h 51 m | Show |
8* South Florida (3:30 ET): Coming into the year, we all thought this regular season finale would be USF's shot at clinching a spot in the AAC Championship Game and sure enough, that's the case. However, no one could have envisioned that they'd be a double-digit DOG to UCF, who is unbeaten and vying to be the "Group of Five" representative in a "New Year's Six Bowl." (In all likelihood, whomever wins the AAC will be that rep). Memphis (also ranked) is waiting in the wings to play the winner of this game next week. Tip your cap to the job done at Central Florida by Scott Frost, who likely lands himself a higher paying job (Nebraska?) for next season. However, let's not discredit what Charlie Strong has done up the road in Tampa. USF actually had the "bullseye" on them at the start of the year as they were favored to run the table and be in the position UCF is currently in. The Bulls did lose once, to Houston (by four), but that's it. Underdogs for the 1st time in 2017, I'll take them plus the points in this de fact AAC East Championship Game. South Florida's lone loss saw them outgain Houston 462-397 and that yardage edge was even greater before they gave up a 9-play, 49-yard drive in the final two minutes to lose 28-24 (were 10.5-pt favorites). Save for that game, it's pretty much been "smooth sailing" for the Bulls. Eight of their 10 wins have come by double digits. Yet, just to illustrate how much the market has "feared" them, they actually come into this game on a 4-game ATS losing streak. Last week saw them "slip by" Tulsa 27-20, though they actually spent a good deal of the game up double digits. Keep an eye on QB Quinton Flowers, who is every bit the equal of his UCF counterpart McKenzie Milton (#2 in FBS pass efficiency), if not superior. Flowers is 2nd in the nation in QBR (trailing only Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield) and is the 7th player in FBS history to have a career w/ 7,000+ yds passing and 3,000+ yds rushing. UCF has outscored its seven AAC opponents by 165 points while USF is at +122. That's a somewhat negligible difference. Even w/ the unbeaten record and playing in Orlando, I just don't see why the Golden Knights are favored by this many points. It is USF that actually has a slight edge on defense as they rank #1 in the conference in both points (19.9) and yards (323.5) per game allowed while UCF is #2 in both categories (20.5, 373.6). UCF has hardly had the most challenging schedule and got a clear break earlier in the year, hosting Memphis in a rescheduled date (Hurricane Irma). Here, it is USF w/ a pretty clear scheduling advantage. They get two extra days to prepare as they last played Thursday while UCF was at Temple Saturday. The Bulls are 6-2 SU in the eight all-time meetings, including a 48-31 win and cover (as 10-pt chalk) LY. 8* South Florida |
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11-24-17 | Blazers -4 v. Nets | Top | 127-125 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Portland (12:05 ET): Coming into the season, I considered seven teams to be "locks" for the postseason in the Western Conference: Golden St, Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Thus far, Portland has certainly done an admirable job of making me re-think their exclusion from the list. The Blazers come into Friday w/ a per game point differential (+4.2) that exceeds all but five teams in the league right now and that quintet consists mostly of the heavyweights you'd think it would (Warriors, Rockets, Celtics). However, all is not necessarily well in the Pacific Northwest as the team is looking to bounce back from an ugly 20-point loss in Philadelphia the other night. A visit to Brooklyn should theoretically get them back on track. Lay the short number. Brooklyn isn't horrible this season, which for them is an improvement. They just got done playing the two NBA Finalists from each of the L3 seasons (Warriors, Cavs) and more than held their own, covering each game. They're actually riding a 3-game ATS win streak coming into today. They engaged in a shootout w/ Cleveland, losing 119-109, but the game was much closer than that most of the way. It wasn't until LeBron James "went off" in the 4Q that the Cavs finally pulled away. Something to note about this Nets team is that they are playing at the fastest pace in the entire league right now. Aside from Golden State, most of the teams at the top of that list aren't very good as the fast pace has a negative effect on the defensive end. Sure enough, the Nets rank 27th in defensive efficiency. It can't be overstated how massive an edge Portland has defensively in this matchup. They join Boston and Oklahoma City as the only three teams in the league that are currently allowing fewer than one point per possession (#2 in def efficiency). In more "traditional terms," they allow just 97.4 points per game (only Boston allowing less). For the sake of comparison, Brooklyn is allowing 114.2 PPG, second MOST in the league. That 17-point difference in points allowed per game looms large here. With Portland looking to bounce back from an ugly defeat, I look for them to put the clamps down this afternoon. They haven't allowed more than 101 points in a game since November 2nd. Opponents have shot 43.3% or worse from the floor in six of the last seven games. 8* Portland |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss +16.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
10* Mississippi (7:30 ET): Mississippi State survived last week in what was a horrendous spot for them, one week removed from a near upset of #1 Alabama and they had this, their rivalry game, on deck (on a short week no less). Dan Mullen's team came from 14-0 down to beat Arkansas, on the road, 28-21 (though they failed to cover as 2 TD favorites). As for rival Ole Miss, they were not as fortunate last weekend, losing to Texas A&M 31-24 in the Oxford finale (shutout in the 2nd half!). Neither team has anything to play for here (Ole Miss bowl ineligible), but you can throw the records out in a rivalry game (the rare cliche that holds true!), thus taking the points is usually a good idea. That's what I'll do here as it's a really big number. Tensions are going to be very high Thanksgiving night in Starkville. Needless to say, this game will not be reminiscent of the Pilgrims and Native Americans sitting down for dinner. This rivalry has taken on a really nasty tone w/ it being a Miss State beat writer that was responsible for former, disgraced Ole Miss HC Hugh Freeze's firing when he uncovered Freeze was calling an escort service. So don't think the Rebels won't be trying here. Furthermore, there is the embarrassment left over from last season when the Bulldogs came to Oxford and beat them 55-20 as 10-point underdogs. That did result in the Rebels not making a bowl. Though an injury to QB Shea Patterson in essence "wrecked" their season, I repeat, the underdog is going to be motivated here. It's a rivalry game and a nasty one at that. Miss State is going to go a decent bowl game and could win 9+ games for a third time in four seasons. But that's pretty much their fate right there. Yes, they'll be motivated to beat their rival as well. But, the margin the oddsmakers are calling for here is the hang up for me. Yes, it's true that when the Bulldogs win, they have typically won big. But it's quite the swing to see them go from 10-pt dogs to more than a two score favorite in one year's time against the same opponent. They'd lost the previous two years and came in ranked both times. Too many things can happen here that would prevent MSU from covering. At the very worst, I expect the backdoor to be open late in the game. 10* Mississippi |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +1 | Top | 28-6 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 58 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): We've certainly seen a significant market shift on the Cowboys as over the L2 weeks they've been blown out by both the Falcons and Eagles. While so much attention is being paid to the absence of RB Ezekiel Elliott, it is actually the absences of LT Tyron Smith and LB Sean Lee that are really killing the team. In the case of the latter, the defense is allowing 2.3 yards more per rush w/ him off the field and has forced eight fewer turnovers. Sadly, he'll again be out here w/ this being a short week. Smith is listed as questionable currently. So why take a chance on America's Team on Turkey Day? Well, for starters, this line opened at -4. So there's some definite value here. Also, the Chargers aren't the Falcons or Eagles. I'll go w/ the value play here. All of a sudden, based on one win and the lack of depth in the AFC, the Chargers are being discussed as a potential playoff team (despite a 4-6 SU record). Look; no one has driven the Bolts' bandwagon harder in the last couple seasons. But I'm sick of getting burned. If you think now is a curious time NOT to be on them, then consider LW's 54-24 win was a byproduct of what turned out to be the most egregious NFL coaching decision in recent memory, that being Buffalo HC Sean McDermott electing to start Nathan Peterman, who turned in simply the worst performance by an NFL QB that I've seen in some time. As bad as Dallas has looked the L2 weeks, QB Dak Prescott is NOT going to throw 5 INT's in 15 attempts in one half of play. No way. Look for this game to be decided in the trenches. If Smith could play, it would be a HUGE boost for the Cowboys and their running game. Los Angeles ranks dead last in the league, giving up a ghastly 139 YPG on 4.9 yards per carry. Dallas is more than capable of running the ball w/o Elliott. On defense, the 'Boys should benefit from what remains a very predictable Chargers' offense that runs far too often in obvious situations. Prior to last week, LA had topped 21 pts in a game only twice. It's a pretty big leap to have this team now favored on the road. Almost without fail, their games end up being close (seven decided by one score). This will only be the fourth time they have been favored this season and the first on the road. As a favorite of any kind, the Chargers are just 5-10 ATS the L3 seasons, losing nine of those games outright. 8* Dallas |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -3 v. Lions | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 58 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (12:35 ET): The injury to Aaron Rodgers all but ended Green Bay's chances of winning the NFC North this year, thereby leaving a huge void that one of the other three teams had to fill. Enter the Minnesota Vikings, who have overcome their own injuries to go 8-2 SU and take a commanding lead in the division. They last lost in Week 4 (more on that in a moment) and since then, it's been six consecutive wins and covers, the latest being a very impressive 24-7 victory over the similarly surprising Rams. But the Purple People Eaters are by no means a "lock" to win the NFC North as we approach Thanksgiving. That's because the last team to beat them, Detroit, is "hot on their heels." Currently two games back, the Lions could deal a huge blow to the Vikings by sweeping the season series for a second consecutive year. They beat them LY on Thanksgiving as well, making this all the more a revenge spot for Minnesota. I'll lay the short number. I readily admit that Detroit is a team that I expected to regress in 2017. That's because last year's 9-7 SU record did not include a single victory over a fellow playoff team and also required a NFL single-season record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks! Speaking of single-season records, last year's Lions defense happened to allow the highest completion percentage in a season in league history! The team hasn't had quite the good fortune in close games this season, but did pull one out last week, 27-24 over the Chicago Bears. That game saw the Lions get outgained (398-352) and rally back from an early 10-0 deficit. The always reliable Matt Prater kicked a 52-yard FG w/ 1:35 remaining for the win, though the team had to survive a missed FG attempt by Chicago as time expired. While three straight wins sounds impressive, note the QB's that the Lions have beaten are: Brett Hundley, DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky, two rookies and a first-year starter. Minnesota's season was thought to be toast when they had to turn to veteran journeyman Case Keenum, especially when RB Dalvin Cook was also lost for the year. But Keenum is having himself a career year. He's completed 68.2% of his passes over the L3 weeks. The defense also deserves a ton of credit, especially for the job it did against the Rams last week, holding them to only 254 yards, which is well below what they had been averaging. For the year, this Vikings' D ranks 5th in yards and 4th in points allowed. Despite losing to Detroit three straight times, Mike Zimmer's defense has allowed just four touchdowns in those games. That Week 4 meeting, a 14-7 loss, is when Cook was lost for the year and it was just Keenum's third start. Minnesota had the slight edge in total yards, but was -3 in turnovers. Zimmer is an incredible 30-13 ATS since taking over as the HC here and I look for his team to end the Lions' four-year win streak on Thanksgiving. 10* Minnesota |
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11-22-17 | Mavs +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 95-94 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): At 3-15, the Mavs currently have the worst straight up record in the league. But I don't think that they're the worst team as there's a handful of teams w/ worse scoring differentials and efficiency numbers. While I by no means expect this team to make any kind of surge into contention, I do think we're now at a point where there will be some value in grabbing them plus the points. Tonight, they face a Memphis team that not only has a losing straight up record at home (4-5), but also a 2-6 ATS mark when favored. So now seems like an ideal time to test the strategy, especially w/ the Grizzlies having lost their last five in a row - SU and ATS! The reason for Memphis' slide is pretty simple. It directly coincides w/ the loss of PG Mike Conley to an Achilles injury, which figures to keep him out of the lineup for an indefinite period of time. The losing streak actually began before Conley got hurt, but in the three games (so far) w/o him, the team has averaged just 96 PPG and every loss has been at home. The shooting numbers were pretty ugly against both Houston and Portland as they went just 37.2% from the field overall, including 15 for 57 from three-point range. They were also dominated on the glass by Portland two nights ago, a game in which the Grizz fell apart late. Clearly, they really miss Conley. Dallas has experienced some hard-luck losses of late, but none moreso than what happened on Monday as they blew a 13-pt fourth quarter lead to Boston and lost in OT. Remember that Celtics team has now won 16 straight games. The Mavs have also suffered close losses to Cleveland and San Antonio. They've beaten teams such as Washington and Milwaukee this year, the latter by 32 on Saturday. They've also split two games against Memphis and that was when the Grizzlies still had Conley in the lineup. Here in Memphis, they lost by only five and that was w/ a -10 difference in FT attempts and shooting only 34.0% from the field. Led by rookie Dennis Smith Jr (14.1 PPG), I look for the Mavs to possibly pull the outright upset tonight. Take the points. 10* Dallas |
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11-22-17 | Belmont v. Providence -9.5 | Top | 65-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
8* Providence (7:00 ET): Fresh off taking the 2K Classic in Madison Square Garden, Providence returns home to host mid-major "power" Belmont Wednesday night. The Friars aren't in the Top 25 currently, but are in the "Others Receiving Votes" category as their only loss so far was to #15 Minnesota. In MSG, they beat Washington and St. Louis, the latter by 27 on Friday (90-63) thanks to an incredible shooting display of 62.0% overall, including 9 of 10 from three-point range! And that Washington win is notable b/c the Huskies are the only team to have beaten tonight's opponent this season. Belmont has won four straight since losing their season opener, but the last two were far from impressive, and I don't think this line is nearly high enough. Providence was picked to finish fourth in the Big East this season and so far they've shown why they can be a player in that tough league. This is an excellent shooting team (52.3% overall) that even knocked down 79.2% of its FT's against St. Louis. That last game saw the Friars lead by as many as 31 as they assisted on 21 of their 31 made field goals. Consider they did that against a defense that had been allowing just 55.7 PPG previously. A big difference between this team and previous editions under HC Ed Cooley is the depth. Ten players played at least 15 minutes against SLU and only two are averaging more than 30 per game for the season.The Friars have won 29 of their last 37 home games. Belmont is again favored to take the Ohio Valley Conference this season, but tonight's game is a big step up in class for them after facing patsies Houston Baptist and Seattle the L2 games. Despite scoring 90+ both games, the Bruins went 0-2 ATS and even barely escaped Houston Baptist, winning by just five. It was also a close game into the 2H vs. Seattle. Now previously, they did beat a pair of NCAA Tournament teams from LY (Vanderbilt and Middle Tennessee), so they've shown they are capable of stepping up. But they did lose to Washington (as two-point road favorites), who lost handily to Providence. The fact the Bruins were favored in Seattle does say something about the respect this team carries, but losing on the road was also telling. As an underdog, Belmont has dropped 12 of 17 the L3 seasons. 8* Providence |
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11-21-17 | Bulls v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 94-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
8* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): Nobody (save for Lakers' diehards) is expecting much from either of these two sides this season, but at least the Lakers are giving us something this year. And what's most surprising of all is that what they are giving us - is defense! Last year, Luke Walton's team ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, but this year they've risen to a shocking fourth (were as high as third), trailing only Boston, Portland and Oklahoma City! As a result, they're a somewhat respectable 7-10 SU after Sunday's surprise win in Denver. But as you can tell from the 127-109 final, that victory was keyed by the offense, specifically Lonzo Ball, who actually shot well (shocking!) and turned in his second-career triple double. I'm going to lay the points here. Many believe Chicago is going to be the worst team in the league this year. They're deliberately tanking, but I personally think that there are a few teams that will end up w/ worse records. Currently, there are three teams w/ worse records than the Bulls - Atlanta, Sacramento and Dallas - but no team in the Eastern Conference is even close to their -9.4 per game point differential. Last time out, they lost by eight at Phoenix, a significantly worse team than the Lakers. I actually played against the Bulls in that spot, noting their already hideous road play, which is seeing them get outscored by 9.1 PPG. The loss Sunday dropped them to 1-7 SU outside the Windy City. This could be a somewhat low-scoring game as it's a matchup of the 28th (Lakers) and 30th (Bulls) ranked teams in offensive efficiency. That aforementioned Lakers defense likely comes in handy here against the second worst offensive team (in terms of points per game) in all of basketball. Also, the Lakers play at a significantly faster pace than the Bulls, who are bottom six in defensive efficiency. So there's a significant edge on one end of the court for the home team as Chicago is giving up 109.1 PPG on the road. Homecourt and a big defensive edge are the keys here for LA and I think that - moving forward - Ball will start to shoot the ball much better. 8* LA Lakers |
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11-21-17 | Davidson +8 v. Nevada | Top | 68-81 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
10* Davidson (10:00 ET): This is a non-Holiday Tournament matchup on the Tuesday slate, which is the exception and not the rule. It features a Nevada team that has been a covering machine the last several seasons (47-25 ATS L72) including a perfect 4-0 to start 2017. But tonight they'll host a Davidson team that is better rested and also topped 100 pts in both of its games thus far. That has me thinking now would be an appropriate time to fade the Wolfpack. In what figures to be a high-scoring game, taking the points is the way to go here. Expect plenty of fireworks in this game. Davidson doesn't just lead the country in three-point field goals made per game (19.5), they average FOUR more makes per game than the second-best team! They have four shooters who are a threat from behind the arc. One of them, Peyton Aldridge, was called the "Larry Bird of the Atlantic 10" by Nevada HC Eric Musselman. Another, Kellan Grady, Musslman called the "best freshman in the entire country." Those two have combined to average more than 50 pts for the Wildcats. The team won its season opener, 110-62 over Charleston Southern, thanks to a school record 26 made three-pointers (on 53 attempts). Grady made seven of those in his debut. The Wildcats turned the ball over only once the entire game and led 24-0 at one point. That was followed w/ a 108-81 win over UNC Wilmington. Aldridge scored a career-high 37 pts in that one. Simply put, this team is playing too well right now to be getting this many points. While Davidson has been off for a full week, Nevada has had to play twice in the previous six days, both times on the road. They did win each, over Pacific and Santa Clara (two WCC teams), by double digits. Santa Clara, they routed by 30, 93-63. Pacific was a closer game, 89-74, though the Wolfpack led comfortably throughout. Ironically, they achieved a school record in three-pointers in that game w/ 17. These teams seem pretty similar to me, but Davidson is better at making three's and turns the ball over less. Those could very well be the keys here to an outright win, or staying within the number at the very least. Then there is the rest factor. Davidson has won each of the last three times it has played w/ five or six days' rest. 10* Davidson |
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11-21-17 | Miami-OH v. Ball State +18 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Ball State is (very) bad, but after having their dreams of bowl eligibilty dashed last week, I have to figure Miami is pretty crushed emotionally. Therefore, I want zero part of laying this kind of big number (on the road, no less) w/ the RedHawks in what is basically a meaningless regular season finale for them. Ball State at least has the motivation of wanting to send it's seniors out w/ a win in the final home game of the season. The Cardinals also have revenge from a one-point loss in Oxford in LY's reg season finale. Miami scored the GW TD w/ just 5:44 to go and Ball State had a chance to answer, but a 90-yard kickoff return was called back due to holding and they lost 21-20 as a touchdown underdog. The situation is MUCH different this year w/ the RedHawks not having anything to play for (were trying to become bowl eligible LY). Thus, I'll grab the big number. This entire season has been one giant disappointment for Miami. They came into 2017 being touted as co-favorites (along w/ Ohio) to win the MAC East after winning their final six regular season games a year ago. They were the first team EVER in NCAA history to open 0-6 and close 6-6 (lost bowl to Miss St). But the magic just wasn't there this year. They've suffered four losses by five points or less, the most crushing of which came last week at home to Eastern Michigan, 27-24. The RedHawks defense allowed 454 total yards in the loss. Despite leading at halftime (17-13), the team really had no shot at winning as they trailed by 10 heading into the fourth quarter. They've now covered just one of their previous seven games to fall to 2-9 ATS on the year, tied for the worst mark in the country at the betting window. Now let's get some of the ugly stuff out of the way. Ball State has lost its last eight games (0-7 vs. the MAC), all of them by at least 16 points. The closest they've finished to any conference opponent came LW, hosting Buffalo, as they "only" lost 40-24 and actually covered the spread, thereby snapping a six-game ATS losing skid. But if the players have any pride at all, they'll "show up" in this final game in Muncie. I should point out that Miami is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite this year, losing both games outright. 10* Ball State |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 9 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:40 ET): They are "dropping like flies" in the Seahawks secondary right now (no Sherman or Chancellor), but at home I believe that Russell Wilson and company can carry this team to victory. It's a virtually unprecedented price range here on Seattle in their own stadium as it will be the FIRST time since 2012 that we can catch them laying less than two points here. I can only assume that has to do with this injuries in the secondary, but free safety Earl Thomas is still present and he's always been the most important piece there anyway. After suffering a misleading loss two weeks ago to the Redskins (w/o Thomas), Seattle bounced back w/ a win last Thursday against division rival Arizona. The extra time to prepare here is huge and Atlanta is most certainly NOT what they were last season. This is a really big game in the NFC Playoff Picture where it's looking like 10 wins may be a requirement for the postseason. Seattle is only one-half game back of the Rams (who lost yday) in the NFC West and they currently own the tiebreak due to a head to head win back in Week 5. The Falcons' situation is a bit more precarious. They have two teams ahead of them in the NFC South currently and even a win tonight would not change that. But what it would do is tie them w/ Seattle for the final Wild Card and obviously give them a much needed tiebreak. Atlanta got a big win LW when they whipped another injury-riddled team, Dallas, 27-7 at home. Of course, the Cowboys were w/o Ezekiel Elliott and Tyron Smith. The task will be much tougher here, not only b/c it's on the road, but they'll also have to contend w/ Wilson. If it were last season, I'd be far more concerned about the injuries in the Seattle secondary facing this Falcons offense. But it's not last season and Matt Ryan and company clearly miss the playcalling of Kyle Shanahan. It just hasn't been the same offensively for LY's NFC Champs and note that they will also be down a key piece, that being RB Donta Freeman. I can't see the Falcons running the ball for much yardage tonight against what is an outstanding Seattle defensive front. But I think that the key will be Wilson, who is having a MVP-type season as only Tom Brady has thrown for more yards. The home field edge is also very big, especially in a night game and I look for the "12th man" to help the Seahawks pull out an important victory. 10* Seattle |
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11-20-17 | Pacers v. Magic -3.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): Both of these Eastern Conference teams qualify as "pleasant surprises" early this season, although the "pleasantness" for Orlando is certainly starting to "wear off." They've lost four in a row, the most recent defeat being the worst of the season as they were blown out by FORTY here at home by the Jazz. The previous three losses all took place out on the West Coast and two of them came against Golden State and Portland. When the Magic returned home Saturday night, they were actually six-point favorites against the Jazz in a battle of teams whose nicknames do NOT end in "s." Tonight, I will go against the grain and "buy low" on Orlando as they should be highly motivated to erase the ugly memory of what happened two nights ago. Indiana is in a much different position coming into tonight. They are off an outright win over Miami, as six-point road dogs, by 25 points. That was their third straight victory, two of them upsets (they also won at Memphis). In between, I managed to cash them as a 10* at home over Detroit Friday night. But despite the respective play recently, these teams still grade out rather evenly, which is why I lean towards Orlando at home. They are much better than what they've shown of late while the Pacers are not quite as good. Indiana shot a scorching 60% from the floor against Miami while holding them to 42.2%, a discrepancy they may not get to enjoy the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Orlando is a lock to improve upon their 38.3% shooting from the last game. Indiana swept the season series from Orlando last year, going 4-0 SU and ATS, and is 7-1 SU and ATS against them the last two years. But, on paper, the Pacers are not as strong in 2017 as they have been the last couple seasons. Magic HC Frank Vogel called Saturday "our worst game of the season" and it was in fact the franchise's worst home loss ever. So they shouldn't be lacking for motivation tonight. Guard Elfrid Payton has called tonight a "must win for this group." This, to me, is a classic "buy low/sell high" situation as the Pacers aren't as good as they've looked recently while the Magic aren't nearly as bad as what they showed against Utah. 10* Orlando |
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11-20-17 | VCU v. Marquette -3.5 | Top | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
8* Marquette (2:30 ET): Two "under the radar" programs that have long since stopped being under the radar clash Monday afternoon in Maui. Both VCU and Marquette enter in off home losses, but those were expected considering the competition. VCU fell to to Virginia, 76-67 as 6.5-pt dogs. The "Havoc Defense" we are accustomed seeing from the Rams just wasn't there against their bigger in-state rival as it was them that turned it over a dozen times (only forced five) and they never got closer than three in the second half. Note Virginia is not currently ranked, by the way. The team that Marquette lost to, Purdue, is however. A size disadvantage was too much to overcome for the Golden Eagles as they were crushed in the paint and lost 86-71 (only trailed by 2 at half). Marquette is patiently waiting for the 6'11" Harry Froiling, a SMU transfer, to become eligible next month. Until then, look for HC Steve Wojciechowski's team to play small ball. Sam Hauser and Markus Howard form an excellent starting backcourt. This team is more than capable of really lighting it up from three-point range w/ the addition of Andrew Rowsey, a UNC Asheville transfer that has 48 pts in two games. Off their first NCAA Tourney appearance in four years last season, the Golden Eagles likely finish as a middle of the pack team in the Big East this year. But that does not necessarily mean they are not a good team. VCU is one of only eight programs to make the NCAA Tournament each of the last seven seasons. But they have a new HC this year as Will Wade departed for LSU. Mike Rhoades was an assistant back in the Shaka Smart days, so he knows the program well. Still, the inability to force turnovers against Virginia was certainly disconcerting. Rhoades felt his team was "well prepared" for that UVA game, but if so, that's not a good thing considering the result. This is one of the weaker VCU teams in recent memory and they have lost 13 of the last 15 times (straight up) that they have been an underdog. 8* Marquette |
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11-19-17 | Temple v. Clemson | Top | 67-60 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10* Clemson (9:30 ET): Perhaps taking a cue from the school's football team, Clemson basketball is already 4-0 this year w/ three of the wins coming by double digits. The one exception was an 81-76 win over Ohio on Thursday, but they led that game by as many as 15 pts before letting the Bobcats in through the "back door." The Tigers are averaging 82.7 PPG thus far, an impressive number. Tonight finds them as a slight favorite against a Temple team that has played only twice (both wins) and off a minor upset of Auburn on Friday. The Owls' season didn't even begin until Thursday when Clemson had already played twice by that point. I think the additional games played for the Tigers is a big edge here and I'll take them here in Charleston at a great price. This is the third time that Clemson has reached the Final Game of the Charleston Classic. It's their first time participating in the event since 2013-14, which - not coincidentally marked the last time they started a season at 4-0 SU better. This particular edition of the Tigers is not shy about hoisting three-pointers (45 attempts last two games) and was 10 of 28 from behind the arc in Friday's 78-59 win against overmatched Hofstra. While they have only two starters back from LY, the starting five accounted for 68 of the team's 78 points. Defensively, it was a strong effort as they held the Pride to only 44% shooting from the floor. This event taking place in Charleston is obviously a huge edge for Clemson. Temple has now covered 12 of its last 13 November games following a 2-0 ATS start this year. It was a "tale of two halves" against Auburn on Friday as they shot only 33.3% in the first (led by one at the break), but then 67.9% in the second and pulled away for the 88-74 win as a 2.5-pt dog. The team's first game was against Old Dominion and they won there 76-65 as a short favorite. Interestingly, it was the complete opposite of the Auburn game as they shot 51% in the first half, but only 25% in the second. So they've yet to really play a good game for 40 minutes. This will be the Owls' toughest test to date and it comes at an event where Clemson is 7-1 SU all-time, including a win over Temple in the 2008 Final! The Tigers have held three of their four opponents under 70 pts and that's huge because Temple is just 1-14 SU the L15 times it has not gone over 70 pts. 10* Clemson |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 37-9 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 59 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:30 ET): The Cowboys' first game w/o Ezekiel Elliott went pretty much as poorly as possible, but as most intelligent observers were quick to note, that had as much to do w/ the team being w/ OL Tyron Smith and not just their star running back. It ended up being a 27-7 loss to a desperate Atlanta team on the road and now Dallas is on the "outside looking in" for what is shaping up to be a very tough NFC playoff picture. This week's opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, is the envy of every team right now as they have the best record in the league (8-1 SU) coming out of their bye. They haven't loss since Week 2 (Chiefs) and have covered six in a row, making them the dreaded "public side" in primetime here. I sided with a similar "square bet" last Sunday night (New England), but not here as the Cowboys at least have a good QB, something you could NOT say LW for the Broncos. Take the points. Dallas is entering a critical stretch here, one that could largely determine the fate of their season and they'll be w/o Elliott for five more games. The next three, while all at home, come in a 12-day span as the next two weeks they'll be playing on a Thursday (Thanksgiving included obviously). There's a chance they could still be favored the next two weeks. But the value is on taking them this week, off the blowout loss, against the high-flying Eagles. Perhaps the Cowboys' stock will not be lower at any point the rest of this season than it is right now. HC Jason Garrett has done some of his finest work as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 pts, going 9-4 ATS in that role w/ five outright wins. Like I said, Philly is "flying high" right now, but perhaps they come out a little "rusty" after the bye week? They did hang an impressive 51 points on Denver's defense in their last game, but Wentz completed only 15 pass attempts in that game. Granted, four were for touchdowns, but it still seems highly unlikely that he'll match that kind of efficiency at any other point this season. Looking at the Eagles' schedule thus far, it's hardly been a gauntlet. They did play (and lose to) the Chiefs, but other than them and possibly (probably?) Carolina, I don't see many potential playoff teams on that list. Dallas, of course, might not find itself in the playoffs thanks to the Elliott suspension. But I don't think they deserve to be this decided of a home dog in this critical NFC East matchup. Philadelphia has actually not been a road favorite of more than a field goal in over three seasons. They actually closed as a dog at LA (Chargers) earlier in the year when they won by only two points. 8* Dallas |
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11-19-17 | Bulls v. Suns -3 | Top | 105-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): For the Suns to be favored, you have to know that the opponent is weak and sure enough, in comes Chicago on Sunday. This is not exactly the "marquee matchup" on the NBA slate for Sunday as Phoenix comes in at 6-11 SU (but are being outscored by 9.0 PPG) while Chicago is 3-10 SU (-9.5 PPG). Surprisingly, both are off wins here. The Bulls upset Charlotte on Friday, 123-120 as 6.5-point underdogs, snapping a five-game losing skid. Meanwhile, that same night saw the Suns gain a measure of revenge against the Lakers (who beat them earlier in the week) as they prevailed 122-113 as 7.5-pt road dogs. You could make a case that Phoenix is lucky to have six wins, but the bottom line is this is one of the rare times they come in as the better team. Lay the short number at home. It was a 40-point fourth quarter for Chicago against Charlotte on Friday that enabled them to get the victory. To call that kind of scoring outburst "rare" from this team would be putting it mildly. The previous game saw them score only 79 points total, including just SEVEN in the first quarter. This is one of only three teams in the league NOT to be averaging 100 PPG as they are at 94.9 PPG, which ranks 29th (only ahead of Sacramento). They are also 29th in efficiency as well, joining the Mavs, Lakers and Kings as the only teams not to be averaging one point per possession. It's not like they're very good defensively either as they rank 20th in efficiency there. On the road this season, they are 1-6 straight up and being outscored by 9.3 points per game. They have not scored 100+ pts in B2B games at any point this season. Phoenix has actually scored 112 or more points in four of its last five games! Now, defensively, this team leaves a lot to be desired. But as discussed earlier, they don't have a lot to worry about here checking the Bulls. One thing that will be interesting to note during the course of this game is the pace. Phoenix is tied for the fastest pace in the league while Chicago plays at the fourth slowest. If the Suns can "speed the game up," then it's advantage them. The Bulls have lost all five games against the Western Conference this year, by an average of 20 points per game. It's pretty rare that you'll get to go against them laying this few points. Do it! 10* Phoenix |
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11-19-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Chargers | Top | 24-54 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Finally, it appears as if we know who the starting QB's will be in this Week 11 matchup - for both teams. Buffalo HC Sean McDermott has elected to make the somewhat "controversial" decision to bench Tyrod Taylor in favor of the unproven Nathan Peterman. What makes the move a "controversial" one is that the Bills - in most people's eyes - have overachieved at 5-4 SU. But the bottom line is they were 5-2 before ugly losses to the Jets and Saints and those precipitated the change. Something my regulars will note is that I've actually been a buyer on the Bills from the start, in spite of all the moves that make it seem they're not trying to be successful in 2017. I'm holding a ticket on them Over 6.5 wins and would not have expected that could be a winner so soon on the season (still need two). I will again "go against the grain" with them here. The Chargers also are dealing with their own QB situation this week. Philip Rivers found himself in the concussion protocol this week and is currently listed as questionable. HC Anthony Lynn stated on Friday that Rivers "looked fine," but he remains uncleared as of press time. Whether or not Rivers plays here will be irrelevant to the selection. The bottom line is that I would not want to lay points w/ the Lightning Bolts right now. If Rivers isn't able to play, it would be a significant downgrade to Kellen Clemens. I've tried and tried to keep believing in this LA team, but at 3-6 SU, they are nearing the point of irrelevancy. Last week marked the latest in the long line of inept losses as they fell to Jacksonville 20-17 (in overtime) despite intercepting Jags' QB Blake Bortles TWICE in the final three minutes of regulation! (You can't make this stuff). Another point I need to make is that the Chargers have the worst homefield "advantage" in the league. They are just 1-3 SU/ATS in their temporary (30,000 capacity) stadium. This selection also boils down to the fact that you can't trust the Chargers laying points. They're just 4-10 ATS in that role the L3 seasons w/ NINE outright losses! This year, they've lost outright both times they've been installed as the chalk - to Miami and to Philadelphia (how bad does that line look in retrospect?). Considering almost all of their games end up being close, why would you want to back them as favorites. Six of their nine games this season have been decided by five points or less, four of those losses. Over the L3 seasons, they are 6-21 SU in games decided by a TD or less. With Peterman under center, look for the Bills to run the ball a lot here, which is an effective strategy considering the Chargers own the league's second worst run defense. Rivers or not, don't look for the Bills' defense to be tested much in this game. Los Angeles comes in averaging just 18.6 points per game and has not topped 21 in the last month. Again, not a team I'd want to lay points with right now. I'll put my trust in McDermott in this spot. 8* Buffalo |
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11-19-17 | Redskins +9 v. Saints | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 42 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): Right now, every NFC division is being led by a "surprise" team, whose bandwagons are filling up rapidly. None more so than the Saints, who have won and covered seven straight games (after an 0-2 start), including a 47-10 massacre of the Bills up in Buffalo last week. A team that has leaned almost exclusively on QB Drew Brees and the passing game for a decade has undergone a somewhat radical transformation in 2017. There's now both a running game and some defense being played in the Big Easy and those are the primary reasons New Orleans is leading the NFC South right now. But before we go praising them too much, let's be sure to note the slate of opposing offenses they've faced during this run of theirs has hardly been comprised of world-beaters. Therefore, I see some value here on Washington, who has a solid offense. Take the points. During this seven-game run, the Saints have beaten Cam Newton and Carolina (34-13) as well as Matt Stafford and Detroit (52-38). But here are the other five QB's they've gotten to face: Jay Cutler (MIA = worst offense in NFL), Brett Hundley (1st career start), Mitchell Trubisky (rookie), Ryan Fitzpatrick (backup for inj Jameis Winston) and Tyrod Taylor (now benched). Say what you will about Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, but he's no worse than the third best QB the Saints will have seen over the last two months. Looking at Washington's recent schedule, they've had to face Philadelphia, Dallas (w/ Ezekiel Elliott), Seattle and Minnesota. Therefore, I'm not really surprised that they come into this game only having won one of their last four games. Not many teams would go .500 against that gauntlet. It also appears as if the Redskins are getting healthier. Injuries along the offensive line coincided with the strength in schedule increasing, which is a "double whammy." But that unit is now a bit healthier. Cousins and the passing game rank third in the league in attempts of 20+ yards downfield, so the Saints secondary should get a real test this week. Also, for as much as the NO defense is being lauded right now, they still only rank 27th against the run. The Saints have twice covered TD spreads, but those games were against Chicago and Tampa Bay, teams that are inferior compared to Washington. Truthfully, New Orleans' 7-2 SU record shouldn't be that surprising considering they've been favored six of the last seven games. Meanwhile, Washington has been favored only ONCE all season as they've taken on the league's most difficult schedule to this points. Saints' stock could not possibly be higher right now, so I view this as an appropriate time to fade. 10* Washington |
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11-18-17 | UCLA v. USC -16 | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 104 h 5 m | Show |
10* USC (8:00 ET): They say to "throw away" the records in a rivalry game, but in this game, the respective records actually understate the advantage one team has over the other. USC comes in a 9-2 SU, having not had a bye week all season. While they were blown out by Notre Dame last month, their only other loss came on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game in which they lost THREE different offensive lineman to injury. The Trojans had been a disappointment at the betting window much of the year, but not lately as they come into the final riding a 3-game ATS win streak. (I had them LW vs. Colorado). UCLA is 5-5 SU, needing a win for bowl eligibility, but despite having QB Josh Rosen, they're simply overmatched in this spot. The Bruins' previous efforts on the road have been nothing short of disastrous and Saturday night will be no different. You are almost certainly aware of the QB battle in this game as USC's Sam Darnold and UCLA's Josh Rosen came into this season as perhaps the two most highly touted pro prospects at their position. Rosen's resume has taken a slight hit due to injury and his team's ineptitude, but like Darnold, better days lay ahead. (An interesting sidenote: the respective fathers were once a doctor (Rosen) and janitor (Darnold) at the same hospital). Darnold has certainly had the better year statistically and has the better supporting cast to lean on. Especially when he hands the ball off to RB Ronald Jones II (552 yards L3 games), who should "slice and dice" a UCLA rush defense which ranks DEAD LAST in the country (302.3 YPG allowed!). Both offenses are averaging slightly more than 35 PPG, but the key here lies on the defensive end where USC is allowing roughly 12 PPG fewer and that the game takes place at the Coliseum. I already talked about how Darnold and Jones should have their way w/ this UCLA defense, but let's come back to that. The Bruins have been nothing short of abhorrent in road games this year, going 0-5 SU, allowing 49 points and 533 yards per game. Yes, Rosen has missed time. But that's still no excuse for these hideous performances. Last week, they were very lucky to "only" give up 37 points at home to Arizona State, who had jumped out to a 14-0 lead before settling for too many field goals in the second half. USC has not lost a home game this season, outscoring their visitors by 13.6 points per over the six games. The Trojans have beaten the Bruins by 19 and 22 points each of the L2 years (had lost 5 in a row previous to that) and mark my words - this team is going to win the Pac 12. 10* USC |
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11-18-17 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): A road favorite, tempting as they may be, that's this hot is typically something I might shy away from. But I'll make an exception here as the Celtics, who have won 13 straight (while going 12-1 ATS!), play the lowly Hawks. Not only did Atlanta hand Boston it's lone ATS defeat during the 13-game SU win streak, but they are also coming off a rather shocking 46-point victory (franchise record!). It was only their third SU win of the entire season and to put it in perspective, they did play the Kings. Meanwhile, just to show where Boston is at right now, they were able to beat the Warriors on Thursday despite shooting less than 40% from the floor. This is a massive drop in class for them, as they go from facing the best team in the league to one of its worst. It's just the opposite for the Hawks. Lay the points. Atlanta was actually off a win the last time they faced Boston, albeit of a much different variety. They had just stunned Cleveland the day before, 117-115, as 11-point road dogs. Here, they've had some time off (two days) since pulling off the most lopsided win in franchise history. Just to show how much different the market now views Boston, they were only 7.5-pt favorites at HOME for the first meeting w/ the Hawks. While there were 24 lead changes in the game, note the Celtics did lead by as many as 10 in the 4Q. Note the Hawks shot 50% from three-point range in that game, something I seriously doubt they'll repeat tonight. After all, Boston is the #1 team in the league in terms of defensive efficiency and holds opponents to only 42.8% shooting overall. They just held the WARRIORS to 88 points on 40% shooting. The fact that Boston won Thursday night, despite shooting only 32.9% from the field (7 of 32 from 3-pt range!) is remarkable. It also reinforces that they are the best defensive team in the league right now. It's become cliche to say, but what a remarkable coaching job Brad Stevens is doing here. Yes, you can point to the massive edge the Celtics enjoyed in FT's as a reason for them beating Golden State. But no such edge will need to be present to beat this lowly opponent. Over the L3 seasons, Atlanta is just 5-15 ATS when facing an opponent that is giving up less than 98 points per game. Boston gives up 94.1 PPG. This is a much bigger mismatch than the oddsmakers are accounting for. 8* Boston |
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11-18-17 | Princeton +2.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 58-71 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
10* Princeton (7:00 ET): The Ivy League contingent has opened a disappointing 0-2 SU/ATS, having faced both Butler and BYU. They were favored over the latter, at home, Wednesday night but shot only 37.7% from the floor and scored 56 points. That was a major disappointing considering how well they shot (55.6%) against Butler (road game) in the opener. I'll call for something close to that here as Princeton faces a St. Joe's squad, which has given up an average of 90 points through its first two games. The Hawks would be 0-2 themselves if not for an overtime win at UIC Monday. They trailed by as many as 11 late in the second half there. That was after giving up 98 in regulation at Toledo in the season opener. Though less rested and on the road, I like the underdog here. This game will come down to how well Princeton can shoot the ball. Considering they shot at a 55.6% clip already this year, we know what they're capable of doing. They even shot 60% from three-point range in that first game. The issue there was they fell behind early (trailed by 10 at half) and were dominated on the boards by Butler (outrebounded 31-18). I do not expect either situation to present itself again tonight. Against BYU, the Tigers actually enjoyed a 36-23 edge on the boards, but in a cruel twist of fate could not make baskets. It was a two-point game w/ just three minutes to go, but Princeton could get no closer. As I stated earlier, St. Joe's should feel pretty fortunate that they too are not entering this contest at 0-2 SU. Trailing UIC by double digits is not a "good look," even if the Hawks were slight underdogs on the road. Nor was getting blitzed by Toledo a good look either. St. Joe's fell behind in that game, 18-4, and trailed the whole way. They also allowed the Rockets to make 14 of 25 from three-point range! Considering Princeton has shot at a 47.1% clip from behind the arc these first two games, look for that to be an effective option tonight. Take the points. 10* Princeton |
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11-18-17 | Oklahoma -35 v. Kansas | Top | 41-3 | Win | 100 | 100 h 35 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (3:30 ET): I fashion myself as a bit of a 'contrarian,' which many times leads me to take "unpopular" sides, most of them being underdogs. But here, my view is most are going to call for #4 Oklahoma to be in letdown mode following its impressive 38-20 win over TCU last week. Trust me, if anyone knows just how well the OU played Saturday night, it's me as I chose to lay the points with them and came away even more impressed w/ Lincoln Riley's outfit. All the Sooners have to do now is win out, which would include the return of the Big 12 Championship Game. I understand why many would consider this a letdown spot and it's a lot of points to lay. But sometimes you just have to look at the two teams and realize one is vastly superior than the other in every conceivable way. Thus, I'll lay the big number. How can a team possibly be asked to lay this many points on the conference road? Well, let's start w/ the opponent. Kansas, as I'm sure you know, is atrocious. Really, that's putting things pretty kindly as the Jayhawks have lost nine in a row since beating FCS school SE Missouri State in the season opener. This is not their first time getting 30 or more points in Big 12 play. Earlier in the year, they were +37 at TCU and lost 43-0. Last week, they were +31.5 at Texas and did manage to cover, losing only 42-27 in a game where the total yardage discrepancy was actually not sizable (371-364). But note that Kansas did score a meaningless late TD w/ only 11 seconds remaining, which capped an 80-yard drive. Prior to that, they had only 264 total yards of offense. They also trailed 28-7 after the first quarter. In conference play, the Jayhawks are already being outscored by an even 31.0 PPG. Now they play the best that the Big XII has to offer. Oklahoma has actually covered four of the previous six times it has been favored by 31 or more points. One of those came LY, hosting Kansas as 40-pt chalk, and they won 56-3. A year later and I'm not sure why anyone would expect anything different. The Sooners' defense hasn't always been great this season, but the offense can probably name its point total. QB Baker Mayfield is going to win the Heisman (book it!) and could use this game for some additional "highlight material." Consider that the Kansas offense has been shut out twice in Big 12 play (by Iowa State and TCU) and held to only nine points by Baylor (yikes). 8* Oklahoma |
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11-18-17 | Minnesota +7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 0-39 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): Northwestern actually finds itself among the Top 25 in the latest installment of the CFP rankings, but to me, it's a "token gesture" by the committee for the Wildcats winning five straight games. Upon closer inspection, that ranking simply does not hold up as the win streak includes three overtime wins. One of them, against Michigan State, is the most "quality of the bunch but then again we saw just how overrated Sparty was last week (told you!). Against Wisconsin and Penn State, the Wildcats were outscored 64-31. Then there was that early season 41-17 loss to Duke, which keeps getting uglier w/ each passing week. I'm not saying that Minnesota is the best opponent N'western will have faced over the month, but they're going to be a very motivated team Saturday in Evanston simply based on the fact they need one more win to become bowl eligible. Take the points here. Minnesota hosts Wisconsin next week, so if they want to get bowl eligible, this week is probably their best chance to do it. I was impressed by the way the Gophers came out last week and destroyed Nebraska 54-21, rolling up 500+ total yds of offense in the process. It was their most points scored in any Big 10 game since 2006, so perhaps PJ Fleck's offense is starting "to take." After a 3-0 SU start, the Big 10 portion of the schedule has not really gone as well as HC Fleck would have hoped in his 1st season here (2-5 SU), but making a bowl is still a milestone worth achieving. The Gophers have basically had the opposite luck of N'western when it comes to close games this year, at least in conference play, as three of their five losses have come by a TD or less. Believe it or not, but for the year, Minnesota has a better scoring differential compared to Northwestern! Despite being 5-2 SU in Big 10 play, N'western is only outscoring foes by two points per game while outgaining them by just three yards per game! Certainly, Pat Fitzgerald's team will remember what happened in this game last year as they were stomped 29-12 up in Minneapolis. However, this is simply NOT a team I'd want to choose as a favorite. Consider that it's been more than three seasons since they've been favored by 7.5 to 10 pts in Big 10 play and they lost that game outright (to Illinois) w/ bowl eligibility on the line (reg season finale in '14). Minnesota has a strong pass defense (183.9 YPG allowed), which is 3rd best in the Big 10, and that should be enough to at least keep them in this one until the very end. 8* Minnesota |
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11-17-17 | UNLV v. New Mexico | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 82 h 36 m | Show |
10* UNLV (9:30 ET): Last Friday, UNLV hosted BYU in a game that was pretty important for their bowl eligibility. They opened as a favorite, but by kickoff had moved to a slight dog. Turns out that the smart money (and I) were right as the Rebels lost 31-21 to the Cougars even w/ a slight edge in total yardage (447-425). The game really hinged on UNLV being -2 in turnover differential. That result now leaves them in a scenario where they must win their final two reg season games to get to six wins and bowl eligibility. Up first in New Mexico, who just one year removed from a 9-4 SU season (including bowl win!) appears to have given up on HC Bob Davie and his antiquated coaching tactics. The Lobos, who have no shot at bowl eligibility, have dropped five straight to fall to 3-7 SU on the year. With more to play for, I'm backing UNLV in this spot. UNLV never led last week. Despite that, they were never really out of the game, which swung on a Johnny Stanton INT in the end zone in the first half. At the time, the game was still scoreless. BYU would go onto score touchdowns on each of its next three drives to take control. Now I really haven't necessarily changed my evaluation of the Rebels from last week. Rather, this play has everything to do w/ the opposition. Also, as noted in last week's analysis, UNLV had won B2B games prior to the BYU loss. It's been a long, hard climb for Tony Sanchez's team, whose season started w/ a historic loss (as 45-pt favorites) to FCS Howard. I think that they really want this bowl berth and will be the more motivated of the two sides Friday night. Meanwhile, motivation may be approaching its nadir here in the Davie era (6th year in Albuquerque). Reports began to surface early on this season that Davie had lost the locker room over alleged player mistreatment. We've yet to confirm that validity of those claims, but it sure seems as if things went south in a hurry. Four times in the five-game losing streak, the Lobos have lost by double digits. Granted, no one expected them to win at Texas A&M last week, but a 55-19 loss to a team w/ its own coaching issues was pretty bad. The Lobos were outgained 562-144. This defense has not been good much of the year and the running game which carried the offense a year ago has declined from 1st to 34th in yards per attempt. Turnovers have also been a major issue w/ 15 fumbles lost (2nd most in FBS) and a -15 margin overall. UNLV is 4-2 as an underdog this year while New Mexico is 0-4 ATS when favored, so keep an eye on that line (play stands regardless!). 10* UNLV |
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11-17-17 | Pistons v. Pacers -1.5 | Top | 100-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): I said to fade Detroit in their last game and sure enough they ended up losing, 99-95 (as 3.5-pt dogs) at Milwaukee. Now, for some, that closing line may have actually ended up a little higher, thereby affecting the ATS result. But my view of the Pistons has not changed here as I believe they've overachieved due in large part to a home-heavy schedule (no one going to games though!) in the early part of this season. They'd played only five road games prior to visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday and were coming off a perfect 5-0 home stand. But they've failed to top 95 points in either of their last two roadies, which includes a 20-pt loss to the Lakers. Tonight they'll be facing a revenge-minded Indiana squad that lost by 17 up in the Motor City earlier this month. Prior to that loss, the Pacers had won and covered seven of the previous eight meetings w/ this particular Central Division rival. That included a 4-0 SU/ATS sweep last season and a 4-0 SU/ATS mark here at home the L2 seasons. Indiana is not expected to be a playoff team this year, but at 7-8 SU, they've at least been competitive. They are coming off a 116-113 win at Memphis Wednesday night, which saw them score 67 first-half points (most allowed by the Grizzlies this season) and build a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter. Darren Collison had himself a remarkable game, scoring 30 points (12 for 12 from FT line) w/ eight assists (no turnovers). Unlike Detroit, the Pacers have played a majority of their games on the road. This will be just their third home game in November. They've lost the previous two, to New Orleans and Houston. So I suspect motivation will not be lacking here, especially when you add in the revenge factor. Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five revenge spots, by the way. Meanwhile, despite losing by only four at Milwaukee Wednesday, the Pistons trailed by 13 entering the fourth quarter. So we have a couple of misleading final scores to deal with here and as a result we have a home side that's being undervalued. 10* Indiana |
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11-17-17 | Quinnipiac +17 v. Colorado | Top | 69-70 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
8* Quinnipiac (6:00 ET): This is a neutral site affair, part of the Paradise Jam, which takes place in Lynchburg, Virginia. The winner will play either Drake or Wake Forest in Saturday's semifinals. Colorado is 2-0 SU, having beaten in-state foes Northern Colorado and Denver by double digits. But despite also going 2-0 ATS in those games, it really tells us very little about where the Buffaloes are actually at entering 2017. This is a much different team than the one that went 19-15 SU a year ago, personnel wise. Four players were lost to graduation, leaving a rotation that is a "work in progress" according to HC Tad Boyle. There are eight newcomers that have seen action thus far. One of them is NOT freshman Evan Battey, who was expected to be a starter in the frontcourt, but instead must sit out this entire year due to academics. Quinnipiac is 1-1 SU so far, having played two close games against Ivy League schools. They opened w/ a one-point win over Dartmouth and then followed that up by losing by seven to Brown. Both were home games for a school known more for its polling institute than its athletic programs. From 2009 to 2014, the Bobcats produced three 20+ win seasons. However, they are just 34-57 SU the L3 seasons under HC Tom Moore. One positive here though is that they have covered four of their last five neutral court games. They also have one of the top players in the MAAC, that being Chaise Daniels, a senior who has 39 pts, 11 rebounds and six blocks in the first two games. Freshman Rich Kelly looks to be an impactful newcomer as he's scored in double figures in both games. Though they've previously covered twice as double-digit favorites, this is the biggest spread to date for Colorado and I wouldn't trust them just yet, especially at a neutral setting. Furthermore, they've actually lost 6 of their previous 10 neutral site games. Not saying they'll lose this one outright, but winning by this kind of margin seems unlikely. The 27-point win over Denver on Tuesday can be explained by the fact that the Buffs had four days off before the game. They still allowed the Pioneers to shoot 55.6% from the floor in the 1H though before the underdog admittedly ran out of gas. I'm also not sure CU will get to enjoy a 2:1 rebounding edge, like they had vs. Denver, again tonight. Quinnipiac actually shot well in the loss to Brown (48%) and if they can do that again, they should easily cover here. 8* Quinnipiac |
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11-16-17 | Missouri v. Utah -3 | Top | 59-77 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:00 ET): Here's an interesting, early-season non-conference battle. Both Missouri and Utah are 2-0, but that was expected by the oddmakers. The Utes have played a couple of cupcakes - Prairie View A&M and Mississippi Valley State - and blew them out by a combined 59 points. Missouri actually opened w/ Iowa State (in Columbia) and won by 15 as six-point chalk. The Tigers' last opponent, Wagner, was totally overmatched in a 99-55 final. So who comes out on top here? Well, the answer to that question likely depends a lot on who will or won't play here. Mizzou could be w/o at least one key contributor and that could be the difference. Regardless if they are shorthanded or not here, I'm fading them in their first road trip of this young season. Utah outscored MVSU by 20 pts in each half on Tuesday, resulting in a 91-51 win. What it was clearly an overmatched opponent, I was nevertheless impressed w/ how the Utes dominated despite being w/o one of their top players Sedrick Barefield (sick). They also didn't have Jayce Johnson for a second straight game. Those are expected to be two key contributors for a team that lost four of its top six scorers from a year ago, so it's pretty impressive that they haven't "skipped a beat." Barefield is reportedly feeling better and thus is probable to play tonight. As I'll get to more in a moment, this game taking place in Salt Lake City is huge and not just because the Utes are 32-5 SU their last 37 games here. Missouri has lost an unconscionable 35 consecutive "true" road games dating back to a win at Arkansas in 2014! I'd say that's a "pretty big" deal in handicapping this matchup, don't you? Also there's a good chance they will be w/o their projected NBA lottery pick Michael Porter Jr, who is battling a hip injury. He's currently listed as questionable for tonight. Also, another player - guard Blake Harris - left the last game w/ a leg injury. Not only has Mizzou been an atrocious road team that last four seasons, they predictably haven't been good as an underdog either, losing 39 of 44 straight up in that role, most of those coming away from Columbia. More of the same here. 10* Utah |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers +3 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): The infamous "process" is starting to pay dividends in Philly as the Sixers have started 7-6 SU. They're also 9-4 ATS, a continuation of last year's success at the betting window when they were the best bet in the league. They just beat the Clippers here in L.A., 109-105 Monday (as 1.5-pt dogs) and will now play their second straight game at Staples Center, this one coming against the Lakers. "Showtime" is also off a win, theirs coming at Phoenix, which snapped an ugly three-game SU/ATS losing skid. The Lakers are playing remarkably well at the defensive end this season (4th in efficiency!) and with this being the finale of a five-game trek out West for the 76ers, you have to wonder what they may have left in the tank. Love the home dog here. Yes, the Lakers are one of four teams currently allowing fewer than one point per possession. The other three are: Boston, Oklahoma City and Portland. This is quite the remarkable achievement considering that it was just last season that the Lakers ranked dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up 1.11 points per possession. They held Phoenix to just 93 points Monday night, thus avoiding what could have been a winless four-game trip. In addition to the defensive improvement that has already taken place here, we should expect the Lakers to be better on the offensive end in this game as well. I say that because they are averaging 106.0 PPG at home this season as opposed to just 100.6 PPG on the road. Philadelphia is a bit of a question mark defensively as they are giving up 109.5 PPG. That number jumps to 110.8 on the road. Admittedly, that's a bit skewed due to giving up 135 at Golden State over the weekend. However, let us not forget that this group also lost outright (as a favorite) in Sacramento late last week as well. I'm not yet convinced that this team has earned the right to be consistently favored away from home. They've only been favored four times all year and lost two of those games outright. The two they covered were at home against lowly Atlanta and Indiana. To me, this is more of a "pick 'em" type affair. Consider that over the last three seasons, this will be just the TENTH time that Philadelphia has been favored! Cart before the horse? 10* LA Lakers |
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11-15-17 | Creighton v. Northwestern -3 | Top | 92-88 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
10* Northwestern (9:00 ET): We find a Big 10 team laying a pretty short number here to a team from the Big East, even though the game takes place in the former's gym. Northwestern has started its season w/ a couple of closer than expected victories over Loyola MD and St. Peter's, both coming by just single digits. I believe that's played an instrumental role in driving down this number far more than it ought to be. Creighton, on the other hand, has scored 92 and 109 points in its two victories, so it's easy to see why they'd look so attractive as an underdog. But I won't be taking the bait; in fact, this marks a great opportunity to take an undervalued favorite that is ranked #20 in the country. Michigan State is obviously the heavy favorite this year in the Big 10, but don't be surprised if Chris Collins has this N'western team not too far behind. I've seen the Wildcats pegged as high as a third-place finish! Again, they are ranked (currently #20), so they won't be sneaking up on anybody. The close win over St. Peter's comes w/ a caveat in that the Wildcats led by 18 w/ 12 minutes to go. It was clearly a case of letting the underdog back in through the back door. It was a similar story in the first game against Loyola, who they allowed to score 51 points in the second half. I suspect such lapses will not be taking place in this game. At least they better not or the Wildcats will taste defeat for the 1st time this season. Remember that Collins got N'western to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history last season. Four starters are back from that team. Creighton always seems to rank near the top of the country in offensive efficiency for HC McDermott. They've already made 24 three-pointers this season, shooting at a 41.1% clip from behind the arc. But that was also against much lesser competition than what they'll be facing here. Two players - Marcus Foster and Khyri Thomas - have accounted for 40% of all Blue Jays' scoring this year, which is quite a bit when you consider the team has scored 201 points in the two games. Those two are the only two starters back from LY, so they're less experienced compared to their opponent tonight. That matters this time of year as does the fact Creighton is just 8-13 ATS the L21 times it has been an underdog, winning only five of those games straight up. Northwestern has covered three straight against Big East opponents, plus is 14-5 ATS their last 19 against that conference. 10* Northwestern |
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11-15-17 | Pistons v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 95-99 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Somebody break up the Pistons! In their return to downtown Detroit, the team has started 10-3 SU. Only Boston, Golden State and Houston can claim more victories right now. If only people would start going to the games! Tonight though, they're in Milwaukee for what sets up as an interesting Central Division battle. The Bucks are only 7-6 SU, but have won three straight (all against Western Conference teams) since acquiring Eric Bledsoe in a trade w/ Phoenix. Pairing Bledsoe w/ everyone's favorite dark horse MVP candidate - Giannis Antetokounmpo - makes Milwaukee a significantly better team than the one who lost 105-96 in Detroit two weeks ago. I'll take them minus the short number in this revenge spot. Detroit has won five in a row, but all of those victories were achieved at home, in front of all of those empty seats. While the team is now 7-1 SU in the Motor City, they're only 3-2 SU on the road. Their last road game also happened to be their last loss and it was an ugly one, 113-93 to the Lakers. They did win at Golden State two nights before that, but still, I question if this team can play consistently well away from home. They are just 34-55 SU in road games under HC Stan Van Gundy. A big reason for them beating Milwaukee the first time around (besides no Bledsoe for the Bucks) was a +19 edge in FT attempts. That's not likely to exist here in this rematch being the game is in the Bradley Center. Antetokounmpo leads the league in scoring (31.3 PPG), but clearly needed help as the Bucks were lacking in depth. Help has arrived in the form of Bledsoe, who may not be shooting the ball that well yet, but that was to expected given he had yet to play this season. In his first game w/ the team, the Bucks won at San Antonio. They've since won and covered here at home against the Lakers and Grizzlies. A strong defensive effort was the reason they beat the Grizz, whom they held to just 12 pts in the third quarter Monday. The two games before that, they held the opposition to 42.5% and 41.9% shooting respectively. I like those defensive numbers and w/ the Pistons still relatively unproven on the road, I think this is a great spot to fade them. 8* Milwaukee |
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11-15-17 | Eastern Michigan v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
10* Miami OH (7:00 ET): I think it would be fair to say that these teams represent the two biggest disappointments in the MAC this season. Miami actually finished tied atop the MAC East last year (w/ Ohio) and did so despite starting that season 0-6 SU (won final 6 reg season games!). Eastern Michigan ended a nearly 30-year bowl drought by going 7-6 SU itself. But in 2017, things have not according to plan either Oxford or Ypsilanti. Eastern Michigan is already eliminated from bowl contention and that can be pinned on the fact they've been quite unsuccessful in "close games." Despite having a positive scoring differential in conference play, their record is only 1-5! Six of their losses this year have come by a touchdown or less. Miami, on the other hand, still has a shot at bowl eligibility (must win final 2 games) and that's a big reason I'm on them here. All the signs were there for an Eastern Michigan decline this season as LY's team won five games by a TD or less and pulled four outright upsets. They really "snuck up" on the oddsmakers as well by going 10-3 ATS. Remember that this program is just two years removed from going 1-11 SU! Chris Creighton (4th year here) has them pointed in the right direction and the Eagles probably will be improved NEXT season. But 2018 seems like a long ways away for a team that had much bigger aspirations this year. I wonder about their psyche as for the first time this season, they were beaten by double digits in a MAC game, this coming last week against Central Michigan. QB Brogan Roback threw FIVE interceptions in the 42-30 loss up in Mt. Pleasant. The loss also sealed the fact that the Eagles won't be returning to the postseason this year. Speaking of quarterbacks, Miami got its starter back LW vs. Akron and you saw the difference that made in a 24-14 win and cover over Akron. Gus Ragland was expected to lead this team to better things in 2017 and while the MAC East is no longer attainable, a bowl bid still is. Ragland has one of the top receivers, not just in the MAC but the entire country, to throw to in James Gardner (886 yds, 10 TDs). Despite a -2 TO margin, the RedHawks had no problem winning going away LW (led 24-7 entering the 4Q) w/ a 420-278 edge in total yards. Defensively, the RedHawks are pretty good at stopping the pass (have not allowed a single 300 yd game YTD) and they also registered six sacks last week vs. Akron. Miami will be heavily favored next week to beat hideous Ball State in their finale, so a win here all but assures they go 6-6 SU and become bowl eligible. They're 5-1 ATS their last six games where the line is a field goal or less (either way) and I'll be laying the short number here. 10* Miami OH |
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11-14-17 | Spurs -6.5 v. Mavs | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): We've got a mismatch as big as Texas itself on the Tuesday NBA card and not even home court advantage can help the lowly Mavs against the Spurs. Dallas enters tonight's tilt tied w/ Atlanta for the worst record in the league (2-12 SU), though admittedly there are worse teams. But don't let that minor detail fool you into thinking the Mavs have a chance tonight. They failed to cash as home dogs Saturday vs. Cleveland, so a superior opponent in the same price range seems like a solid value to me. The Mavs also failed to cover on Saturday, losing 112-99 as 10-point dogs at Oklahoma City. Meanwhile, San Antonio had zero difficulty against another bottom feeder in its last game as they routed Chicago 133-94 on Saturday. Lay the points. It seems as if the oddsmakers have been slow to catch onto the Mavericks' decline as they stand at 3-11 ATS overall, including 1-6 at home. They're being outscored by 8.2 PPG overall and that's against opposition that is mostly inferior to the team they'll face tonight. Offensively, there are big issues in 'Big D' w/ the team ranking 26th in efficiency. They are one of five teams currently not averaging at least one point per possession. But defensively, they are actually worse as they come into this game ranked 29th in efficiency. It's a struggle to even get the 39-year Dirk Nowitzki on the court these days as Rick Carlisle now has to lean on the likes of Harrison Barnes and rookie Dennis Smith, Jr. Expect this team to have a high draft pick next summer. As for the Spurs, they've managed to go 8-5 SU despite being w/o Kwahi Leonard and Tony Parker. Their offense has really picked up of late w/ the third best efficiency rating in the league over the L5 games, so I expect them to slice and dice that porous Mavs defense. The Spurs defense, as per usual, ranks near the top of the league at #6 in efficiency. There was a four-game losing streak earlier in the year (included Boston and Golden State), but other than that, San Antonio has been as good as usual. Consider they were w/o roughly one-third of the roster and still beat Chicago by 39 points on Saturday. That's actually important to note as the Mavs are pretty comparable to the Bulls these days. 8* San Antonio |
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11-14-17 | Central Michigan v. Kent State +18 | Top | 42-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Kent State (7:00 ET): I probably don't need to tell you that Kent is not a very good football team. Of course, injuries have definitely taken a toll on the Golden Flashes, which is why they come into tonight sporting only a 2-8 SU record. However, for this game, I do believe there is some value in taking them. Central Michigan (6-4) just clinched a bowl berth last week by pulling its second consecutive minor upset, this one over Eastern Michigan (42-30). So there's a natural letdown that follows for a Chippewas team that has won three straight and four of its last five overall. This being Kent State's home finale, I don't think they'll be lacking in motivation and the number is generous, about four points too many according to my own power rankings. Take the points. Kent's biggest issue all season has been at the quarterback position where an injury to Nick Holley has really rendered the offense pretty impotent. Out of 130 FBS teams, the Golden Flashes rank 129th in both yards and scoring. QB George Bollas has a very ugly 0-5 TD-INT ratio the L2 games, though Kent did scored 20 points in its last game, it's most against any FBS opponent all season. It should be noted that game (at Western Michigan) would have been a lot closer than the 48-20 final were it not for THREE defensive scores against the Golden Flashes. It is imperative here that Bollas take care of the football as CMU has 16 interceptions on the year, five of them coming last week! However, as I've stated so many times in the past, turnovers are such a volatile statistic. One week or season, they can totally be in your favor, while the next you're on the wrong end. I'll call for things to go MUCH better in that department this week for Kent. Central Michigan may have a "ball-hawking" type defense, but it also gives up plenty of points. They've allowed 23 points in all but one game this season (to Ball State). To go back to my earlier point, the nine TO's they've forced the L2 games have been huge for them. I realize that the Chips still have an outside shot at winning the MAC West, but prevailing here by any kind of margin is not likely to the focus. They were virtually dead even in total yardage last week vs. Eastern Michigan, a game which was decided by those aforementioned five interceptions. CMU is only +5.3 points and +5.6 yards per game in conference play, so this is by no means a dominant team. Kent did beat them LY (as 14-pt road dogs!), 27-24, on a last second field goal. The revenge factor here will be overrated as I look for the Golden Flashes to "show some pride" in the final home game for their seniors. 8* Kent State |