Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-12-21 | Seahawks v. Texans +9 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): I understand that few, if any, want to touch the Texans right now, let alone when they have Davis Mills quarterbacking. But are we really convinced that Seattle should be laying this many points on the road, against anyone? I guess this will be the test. The Seahawks are off a 30-23 win over San Francisco last week as 2.5-point dogs. But that was at home and they were aided by both a 73-yard TD on a fake punt and a safety. The Seahawks are 2-0 vs. the 49ers this year, but 2-8 SU against the rest of their schedule. Last week was just their second win since Week 4. I’m taking the points. Just how odd is it to see a 4-8 SU team favored by seven or more on the road? Well, per ESPN Stats & Info, Seattle is the first team since 1966 with a win percentage of .333 or worse to be laying seven or more on the road in the month of December! Also, keep in mind the fact that the Seahawks are just 1-4 ATS their last five tries as a favorite and have also lost outright four times. They are 1-7 ATS in their L8 games as a road favorite going back to last year. I’m not going to look you in the eye and tell you that Mills is good. But he’s no worse than Tyrod Taylor has been at QB for Houston. Before getting steamrolled 31-0 by a good Colts team last week, the Texans previous three games had all been decided by single digits. They beat the Titans 22-13 on the road. The two losses were by seven and eight points. Just “hold your nose” and take the points here as I don’t think a defense that gives up nearly 400 YPG and just lost Jamal Adams for the season should be laying this many points. 8* Houston |
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12-11-21 | Kings +7 v. Cavs | Top | 103-117 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (8:00 ET): This is an interesting matchup as both teams are in the second night of a back to back. The Kings lost Friday, 124-123 in Charlotte, after De’Aaron Fox missed two free throws with 2.4 seconds remaining. I was personally happy to see that as I was on Charlotte. But for the Kings, it was a difficult “pill to swallow,” not just because of Fox’s missed free throws, but they led most of the game (by as many as nine in the 3Q) and the Hornets seemingly “couldn’t miss” (shot 55.2%). Look for them to bounce back here though, at least ATS, as they’re catching a decent number here in Cleveland. The Cavs continued their surprising start with a dominant 123-106 win at Minnesota last night. They led by as many as 30 (on the road!). With the win and cover, Cleveland is now 19-6-2 ATS, which is the best cover percentage in the league. Although they are 4-0 ATS when favored, this is a tricky spot for the Cavs, who are unrested and rarely this large of a favorite. I can’t possibly see them matching the red-hot shooting of last night where they were 54.1% from the field (shot over 60% in the 1H). You have to tip your cap to Cleveland, who is undoubtedly THE biggest surprise team in the NBA. They entered this season with the fifth lowest power rating in the league, but now project to be a playoff team. They’ve covered the spread in 9 of their previous 10 games, but what’s interesting about that is the lone ATS loss during that stretch (at Milwaukee) came on the second night of a back to back. The Cavs’ last 9 ATS wins have all come when playing with at least one day of rest. The Kings will come into this game hungrier and - at the very worst - keep it close. 10* Sacramento |
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12-11-21 | Mississippi State +2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 63-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (2:00 ET): There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of the “lesser knowns” would be Colorado State, who is 9-0. The Rams are not ranked and other than Iowa State, I’d consider them the “weakest” of those teams that still don’t have a loss. Expect CSU to lose for the first time on Saturday as they face a Mississippi State team that’s angry after losing to Minnesota (as 11.5-pt favorites) in Starkville last weekend. MSU is 6-2 SU on the year and this is the first time they’ve been underdogs in any game. Take the points. This game takes place in Fort Worth, TX as part of the Hall of Fame Classic. It certainly looks to be Colorado State’s toughest test so far, although they did just beat St. Mary’s by 16 last weekend. But that game was in Fort Collins where the Rams “shot the lights out,” making 52.8% of their total field goal attempts, including 9 of 16 from three-point range. Also helpful was the fact St. Mary’s missed 17 of its 21 three-point attempts. Miss State has done an excellent job defensively, holding teams to 39.4% shooting for the year. It should be noted that this is their second straight game against an unbeaten team. The Bulldogs were tied with Minnesota with 17 seconds left on Sunday before giving up the game’s final five points (Minnesota has since lost to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten). I don’t think that MSU is going to blow a second chance to ruin a team’s unbeaten start. Colorado State can’t continue to shoot 53.6% from the floor (season average!) and Miss State has the size advantage here. 10* Mississippi State |
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12-11-21 | Arkansas v. Oklahoma | Top | 66-88 | Win | 100 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (1:30 ET): There are still eight unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball. One of them is #12 Arkansas, who is 9-0. You can’t take away from the fact they are unbeaten, but I’m not nearly as high on the Hogs as the pollsters are. They sit just outside the Top 25 in my own personal power ratings, which is just a little lower than they are in the KenPom ratings (where they are #23). This afternoon marks the Razorbacks’ first “true” road game of the season and I think it will be their first SU loss as well. Oklahoma is hosting Arkansas on Saturday. The Sooners are 7-2 SU, but coming off a bad loss to Butler here in Norman. It wasn’t “bad” in the sense that they were blown out. But rather, OU was an 11-point favorite in the 66-62 overtime loss. The Sooners blew a 10-point halftime advantage and saw their 26-game home win streak against non-conference teams come to an end. Both of their losses this year have been close; the other was by three to Utah State in Myrtle Beach. Oklahoma already holds a win over a Top 25 team this season. Ironically, it was over a SEC team. They beat Florida 74-67 (in Norman) back on Dec 1. OU will soon be headed to the SEC, but they’re not there yet, so the 26-1 SU run vs non-conference teams at home is still in play for this matchup with Arkansas, a team the Sooners are 5-0 SU/ATS when hosting, going back to ‘97. This game is being played in Oklahoma City, not Norman, but I’d still consider it a “home game” for the Sooners, who should hand Arkansas its first loss of the season. 8* Oklahoma |
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12-10-21 | Green Bay v. UMKC -8 | Top | 55-64 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* UMKC (8:00 ET): UMKC has fared extremely well at home thus far, although both times they faced non-DI opposition. Still, giving up an average of just 34 PPG at home is quite the accomplishment. Tonight the Roos host a Green Bay squad that is 0-4 on the road with the four losses coming by an average of 13.7 PPG. It’s the first time this season that UMKC has been favored, but according to my own power ratings, the number isn’t nearly high enough. So I’ll lay the points. UMKC opened its season with three road games against teams from “power conferences.” After predictably losing the first two (at Minnesota and Iowa), the Roos stunned the College Basketball world by going to Missouri and winning 80-66 as an 11-point dog. That win obviously carries a lot of weight in the power rating. But it should be noted the Roos have another road win as well, 74-58 at Idaho State, where they were a two-point dog. All four of the teams wins this season have been by double digits. Green Bay had a two-game win streak snapped last Saturday as they were housed 82-58 by Youngstown State, at home. That was a pick em game according to the oddsmakers, however, the Phoenix were outscored 50-28 over the final 22 minutes. Their only two wins this year came against a non-DI team (WI-Superior) and Robert Morris (who is still winless). I can’t see GB going on the road and pulling an upset here. For UMKC, this is the final home game before X-Mas, so they’re going to want to win big. 10* UMKC |
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12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets +1.5 | Top | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be underrating the Hornets as of late. That’s understandable as the team is without three starters and two reserves due to COVID-19 protocol, plus they have also lost five of their last six games. But, including B2B close losses to the 76ers here at home, Charlotte has managed to go 4-0 ATS in its last four games. Tonight they host a Sacramento team that’s on a 3-0 SU/ATS winning run. My power ratings say the Hornets should still be favored here, so I’m rolling with them. Earlier I mentioned that Charlotte is just 1-5 SU in its last six games. But five of those games have been decided by four points or less and the Hornets have come out on the losing end in four of them. So they easily could have a better overall record coming into this game. What’s really hurt them is an 0-4 SU record in OT games this season. The first loss to Philadelphia was an OT game, then the Hornets came up just four points short in the rematch on Wednesday. In the wake of all the absences, other players have stepped up for the Hornets. Gordon Hayward had a season-high 31 points on Wednesday. Charlotte should have no problem scoring tonight against a Sacramento team that just gave up 130 points in its last game. Prior to their last two games, the Kings have had three and two days off. Here, it’s just one day between games. Sacramento also has only five wins by more than five points all season. With one of those five coming against Charlotte (140-110 back on 11/5), the Hornets are “thinking revenge” coming into this one. The Kings are also 0-7 ATS the L3 seasons off a game where they scored 130+ points. 8* Charlotte |
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12-09-21 | Monmouth v. St. John's -8.5 | Top | 83-88 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* St. John’s (8:30 ET): I think it’s a secretly “juicy” card tonight in College Hoops. Not only are two of the remaining nine unbeatens playing, but you have the nation’s worst ATS team (who I’m taking) as well as the nation’s best ATS team (who I’ll be fading) both in action. I already talked about how 0-9 SU/ATS William & Mary is “due” for a win & cover Thursday. Now let’s turn to Monmounth, who is 8-0 ATS and certainly due to drop a game at the betting window. There are only two perfect ATS teams left (7-0 MD-East Shore is the other). I think “tonight is the night” for the Hawks to fall from those ranks as they are clear underdogs at St. John’s. Lay the points in this one. St. John’s unveiled a new starting lineup on Sunday and the end result was an 83-69 win against Fordham. Replacing 6-2 G Stef Smith and 6-11 center Joel Soriano were Dylan Addae-Wusu and Esahia Nyiwe. Addae-Wusu had a career-day (11 points and 11 assists) while Nyiwe scored seven points. Addae-Wusu was high school teammates with the Johnnies’ second-leading scorer, Posh Alexander, who also had a career-day against Fordham with 23 points. Julian Champagnie led the Big East in scoring last season and is averaging 21.0 PPG so far this year. I think Red Storm HC Mike Anderson has found himself a solid starting five. St. John’s is 6-2 SU coming into this game. Their only losses were to Kansas and Indiana. While they got blown out by the Jayhawks, the Red Storm only lost by two at Indiana. Against the spread, they are 0-5 L5 games, but they were big double digit faves in four of those games (all wins) and then there was the game vs. Kansas. I know that Monmouth is not only perfect ATS, but also on a 7-game SU win streak after losing the season opener (by just two) to Charlotte. But tonight marks the Hawks’ seventh road game of the season and fourth in the last 12 days. They’ve got to be running on empty. 8* St. John’s |
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12-09-21 | Steelers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 28-36 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:20 ET): Despite what the records may say, I believe the Vikings are a better football team than the Steelers. Minnesota may be 5-7 SU, but (unlike the Steelers) they can actually claim a POSITIVE YTD point differential, albeit a small one (at +3). The Vikes’ seven losses have all been by eight points or fewer. Four have been decided on the final play of the game, including a pair of OT losses. Last week may have been the new nadir as the Vikes fell 29-27 to the previously winless Lions. That was a game where Mike Zimmer’s team was favored by a TD on the road, had a 426-372 edge in total yards and took the lead with just under two minutes to go. The defense simply could not get the last stop that Zimmer needed. So, at this point, I’m pretty much willing to “dig my heels in” and let it be known that I don’t think Pittsburgh is a very good team. Sure, they beat the Ravens last week to move to 6-5-1 on the year. But the Steelers have been outscored this season by 42 points. They are the only team in the NFL to have a winning record and negative point differential. While a bulk of that negative point differential stems from a 41-10 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago, it’s also true that the Steelers do not have a single victory this season by more than eight points. Their six victories have been by a total of 26 points. Bottom line: I do NOT believe this team is going to make the playoffs. I want to play against them here. The defense may have let them down last week, but the Vikings are a lot stingier here at home. A lot stingier, in fact. On the road, Minnesota allows 29.2 PPG. That’s second most in the NFL. But at home, they allow only 19.8 PPG, which is in the top 10. It’s that defensive improvement that allows me to look past the potential absences of WR Adam Thielein and RB Dalvin Cook on Thursday. The Steelers’ offense, which averages only 20.3 PPG and has an aging Ben Roethlisberger at QB, isn’t very good. And the last two times the Steelers have gone on the road, their defense has surrendered 41 points in both games! The Vikings moved the ball fine w/o Thielen and Cook last week. My power ratings do say that the Vikings are the better team here. So they probably should be laying more than a field goal. But with all but one of their games having been decided by eight points or less, I feel more comfortable simply playing them on the money line. They WILL win this game. 8* Minnesota (MONEY LINE) |
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12-09-21 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 95-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): This is a situation where I anticipate that “the world” will be on the Lakers as they are laying a short number to a Memphis team that lost last night. But it certainly seems foolish to discount a Grizzlies team that won (and covered) its first five games without Ja Morant. One of those wins came by 73 points over Oklahoma City, which set a new NBA record for largest margin of victory in league history. Last night’s game against Dallas saw the Grizzlies seemingly run out of gas late as they were outscored 28-21 in the fourth quarter. The final score was 104-96, an outright loss as 2.5-point favorites. While this is the second night of a back to back, I think it’s worth noting that Memphis at least gets to stay home. That alleviates some of the issues typically associated with this situation. Also, note that Dillon Brooks was ejected late in the 4Q last night, which may have an inspiring effect on both he and his teammates for tonight. As a team, Memphis shot just 40% against the Mavs, including 9 of 31 from three-point range. I expect better shooting tonight as the Grizz are 6-1 SU and ATS this season after a game where they were held under 100 points. They are also 9-4 ATS as underdogs. The Lakers are just 13-12 SU this season, including 4-5 on the road. Now a lot of that has to do with LeBron James missing a lot of action. James is expected to be on the court tonight. However, he would be matching a season-high by playing in his third consecutive game. Not sure he will be able to match his 30-point effort (on 13 of 19 shooting) that he had against Boston on Tuesday. Same with Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook, both of whom also had double doubles. I just think the Lakers are a mediocre basketball team right now and the oddsmakers haven’t caught up to that fact. Take the points. 10* Memphis |
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12-09-21 | Hampton v. William & Mary -4 | Top | 54-53 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
8* William & Mary (7:00 ET): Tonight “has” to be the night for William & Mary, right? The Tribe comes into Thursday at 0-9 - both straight up and against the spread! There are just four winless teams in the country, straight up. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. There are also just four winless teams in the country, against the spread. None have more losses than W&M’s nine. This is quite the dubious distinction for one of the last remaining “major” College Basketball programs to never make a NCAA Tournament. But hosting an “added board team” tonight, we like the Tribe to “get off the schneid.” Hampton comes in with a 3-6 SU record, but is off its first win in nearly a month. After opening 2-0 SU (both wins against non-DI opposition), the Pirates promptly lost their next six games. Four of those six losses came by double digits and all were by at least six points (significant when looking at tonight’s pointspread). But Saturday saw the Pirates finally take down a D-I opponent as they snuck by Norfolk State 58-57. They won on a buzzer-beater as Russell Dean hit a miraculous three-pointer as time expired. That was a nice win as a three-point home dog, but Hampton is still 0-3 SU on the road this season. Hampton is still on a “high” off their thrilling win, but William & Mary is desperate and knows this is their best shot at a win yet. The only other time that the Tribe have been favored was the second game of the season when they were -2 here at home vs. American U and lost 72-64. I know that an 0-9 SU/ATS record inspires little confidence here, but every team is eventually “due” and in the case of W&M they are facing their weakest opponent yet, one that is 5-16 ATS its L21 non-conference games. Hampton is 0-5 ATS the L5 times it has been off an ATS win and 0-4 SU vs. W&M the L4 seasons. 8* William & Mary |
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12-09-21 | Texas v. Seton Hall +2.5 | Top | 60-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (6:30 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this Big 12 vs. Big East matchup Thursday night. This isn’t the first time I’ve taken Seton Hall, nor will it be the last. It was almost a month ago that I called the Pirates one of the more underrated teams in the country as they went into Michigan and pulled a 67-65 upset. That win earned them the respect they deserved. While the Pirates did lose their next game, 79-76 to Ohio State, they have since rattled off four consecutive victories and come into tonight ranked #23 in the country. Texas is ranked #7 in the country and like Seton Hall has just one loss on the season. The Longhorns were beaten as a 7.5-point dog by Gonzaga, 86-74 back on November 13th. That loss is still the only time UT has had to venture off campus thus far. They’ve won five straight by an average of 23 PPG, but that’s all against lesser competition. This will be, by far, the ‘Horns toughest test since losing to the ‘Zags. While Texas is the higher ranked team, factoring in the home court edge, I believe Seton Hall should be the favorite here. The Pirates are 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 32.4 PPG. Again, Texas has played only one “true” road game while Seton Hall not only went to Michigan, but also played a Holiday Tournament in Florida. Myles Cale returned to Seton Hall’s lineup over the weekend, after missing the previous three games. That’s a big boost for tonight. Also, Texas is 0 for its last 7 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest and 2-14 ATS when facing a team that averages at least 77 PPG. 10* Seton Hall |
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12-08-21 | Utah Valley +5.5 v. Southern Utah | Top | 56-60 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): Going back to my “old friends” in Utah Valley. The last time I played the Wolverines, they turned in an outright upset for me, defeating #12 BYU 72-65 in overtime as 13-point underdogs. Quite obviously, that was the Wolverines’ most impressive win to date as they’ve started the season 7-1. That they were able to defeat BYU despite shooting just 31.3% from the field (including 5 of 19 on 3PA) speaks to what kind of team we’ve got here. They did have a substantial edge at the FT line over BYU, but even if that’s not the case tonight, UVU should get by Southern Utah. Take the points. Southern Utah enters tonight on a four-game win streak. Two of those wins, 88-85 over Yale and 81-75 over Idaho, were close. In fact, the win over Yale required OT. This will actually be just the second home game for the Thunderbirds, so it may seem surprising that they are 5-3 SU overall. But they’ve only been a dog three times and did lose outright at Dixie State (as a 10.5-point favorite) in the second game of the season. I know that one has to be careful about taking a team coming off a big upset win, but in the case of Utah Valley State, they’ve had plenty of time off. The win over BYU was last Wednesday. They were to play Yellowstone Christian (a non-board team) on Friday, but that game was canceled. I’ve got the Wolverines rated as the better team on a neutral floor, so even with the home court advantage tonight, Southern Utah should not be favored by this many. This is a triple revenge game for UVU as they have not beaten their in-state rivals since 2014 (lost in both ‘19 and ‘20). 8* Utah Valley State |
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12-08-21 | Connecticut +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 53-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Connecticut (7:00 ET): Normally, when a ranked and unranked team meet, I see value in the latter. But here, you’ve got a UConn team whose #15 ranking I am totally in line with, taking on a West Virginia team that simply isn’t on their level. I understand that this game is in Morgantown and UConn is without two starters. But my power ratings say the Huskies should still be the favorites tonight, so taking the points in this one looks to be a “no-brainer.” At 8-1, UConn is off to its best start since 2013-14. This is a team with tremendous depth, which is why I am not overly concerned about the absences of Adama Sanogo and Tyrese Martin. Without those two, the Huskies still scored 88 points in their last game. Granted, it was at home vs. Grambling, but positive contributions from the likes of R.J. Cole, Isaiah Whatley and Jordan Hawkins have me confident in this team heading into tonight. Nine different players scored and logged at least 12 minutes on the court against Grambling. I also like the fact that UConn is 16th nationally in FG% defense, allowing opponents to shoot just 37.2 percent for the season. West Virginia (7-1) also has just one loss. It came against Marquette, back on 11/19, 82-71 as a 5.5-point neutral site favorite. The Mountaineers have since rattled off four straight wins, including 67-51 over Radford on Saturday. But only two players finished that game in double figures. With second-leading scorer Sean McNeil out, WVU leans heavily on Taz Sherman, who went for 27 against Radford. I think that UConn, the superior defensive team in this matchup, can contain Sherman. The Huskies’ only loss this year was by four to Michigan State on Thanksgiving, which came a day after a 2OT win over Auburn in a holiday tournament. Look for them to win their first “true” road game of 2021-22. 10* Connecticut |
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12-07-21 | Duquesne v. DePaul -7 | Top | 67-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* DePaul (8:30 ET): After suffering their first loss of the season, I see DePaul bouncing back in a major way Tuesday night at home. The Blue Demons lost 68-64 on Saturday, to Loyola Chicago, but covered the spread as 4.5-point home underdogs. They’re now 6-1 ATS and while there have been some close wins mixed in (won by three over Rutgers and four over W Illinois), this should be more of a blowout as Duquesne comes in at 3-6 SU and off a very tough loss at Marshall. Lay the points. On Saturday, Duquesne went to Marshall and took a seven-point lead into halftime. But it was not meant to be. The Dukes lost 72-71 on a last-second three-pointer. While they left with the cash (as eight-point dogs), it’s going to be a difficult loss to get over and thus I believe the Dukes are ripe to be blown out here. This is the first time this season that Duquesne has had to play B2B “true” road games. They’ve actually dropped two in a row as last week also saw them lose at home to Bowling Green, 78-70 as a 4.5-point favorite. DePaul also led at the half in their last game. They took a 37-31 lead into the break and seemed primed to win their seventh straight game. But they only scored 27 points in the second half. Leading scorer Javon Freeman-Liberty was held to only 10 points and six rebounds. He averages 21.1 PPG, so expect a bounce back effort here. My power ratings say that this should be a double digit spread, so I’ll put faith in that and lay the number. 8* DePaul |
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12-07-21 | UTEP v. Kansas -19 | Top | 52-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Kansas (8:00 ET): Kansas enters the day ranked #8 in the country. I’ve got them a bit higher in my own power ratings. The Jayhawks’ lone defeat came by a single point, in Florida, to Dayton on a buzzer-beater. That was a game they led by 10 at the half. Since suffering that loss, KU has bounced back with convincing wins over Iona (also in Florida) and at St. John’s. Tonight they face a UTEP team that is going to be severely outclassed. The game takes place in Kansas City, not Lawrence, but you’re still going to want to lay the points as the favorite should roll here. UTEP has a 4-3 SU record after a loss to New Mexico State last week. That’s the only game the Miners have played since Thanksgiving. I made the mistake of taking the Under in that last game and what killed me was UTEP allowing 56.5% shooting, including 40% from three-point range. I don’t see the Miners defending any better here against one of the elite offensive teams in the country (Kansas is 3rd in Off Efficiency per KenPom). Another issue is that UTEP fouls way too much. They also don’t shoot well from behind the arc (just 31.7%), so it’s going to be difficult to “keep pace” against a vastly superior opponent. These teams met last season and the game was actually close (Kansas won 67-62 as a 17-point favorite). It was not a great shooting night for the Jayhawks, who made only five three-pointers and 41.8% of their total FG attempts. I expect a much better effort at the offensive end tonight. Covering the spread has been a bit of an issue thus far for Bill Self’s team (3-3-1 ATS), but UTEP is just 2-6 ATS its last eight games vs. teams with winning records and hasn’t faced any team near this caliber all season. 10* Kansas |
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12-07-21 | South Dakota +8.5 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
8* South Dakota (8:00 ET): I wouldn’t want to lay points with a Northern Colorado team that has seen four of its five wins come by three points or less. The Bears opened their season by beating Pacific 67-65 and then Hawaii 81-78. Then they proceeded to lose five of their next six contests, the lone win coming against Colorado College (non-DI team). That 93-53 final is the only time Northern Colorado has won a game by more than three points all season. They are coming off a two-point win (in OT) over Montana State in the Big Sky opener, then a three-point win over Montana on Saturday (a game they trailed by eight at the half). Now South Dakota is hardly some dominant force. But the Coyotes should be able to stay inside this generous number tonight. They’ll come in with some confidence after picking up their own non-DI victory on Friday, 93-37 over Waldorf College. South Dakota is now 5-3 SU overall and aside from a horrible second game of the season (at Drake), they’ve been competitive throughout. They were favored in three of their early wins. This is a non-conference game, so it is unlikely to have the favorite’s full attention. In fact, Northern Colorado heads to Arizona next week and that may be the game the coaching staff and players are thinking about right now. The Bears have not been favored by this many points in any game this season and I can’t see them shooting 53.5% again from the floor, like they did their last time out. The last five games have seen them allow 77.8 PPG on 48.3% shooting. 8* South Dakota |
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12-06-21 | Patriots v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): After a weak Sunday slate, we’ve certainly got something to “sink our teeth into” here as New England faces Buffalo on Monday Night Football. These are the two top teams in my own personal power rankings. Winners of six straight (SU and ATS), the Patriots are the hottest team in the league right now. Last time we saw them, they blew out the Titans 36-13. That was their third straight win by 23+ points. But it would be unwise to disregard what the Bills have done this season. They were the Super Bowl favorite not even a month ago. I’m going to lay the short number in this one. What’s hurt the perception of Buffalo over the last month is two confounding losses. One was at Jacksonville, by a score of 9-6, and I still have no explanation for what happened there. A 41-15 loss to the Colts two weeks ago was easier to explain as the Bills were -4 in turnovers in that game. Despite losing by 26, they actually had a slight edge in yards per play. It was a strong bounce back game Thanksgiving Night against New Orleans as the Bills went on the road and won 31-6 as 6.5-point road favorites. With 10 days between games, I expect the Bills to be sharp on their home field tonight. You’ve got to respect New England’s 5-0 SU road record. However, they’ve gone off as the favorite in four of those five games. So you can’t be too surprised by their success. The only time they haven’t been favored on the road was against the Chargers, who have the worst home field advantage in the league. The other four road wins were against the Jets, Texans, Panthers and Falcons. Buffalo’s defense, which is #1 in total yards allowed, should make Mac Jones “look like a rookie” tonight in what amounts to a statement game for the reigning AFC East Champs. New England is “due” to lose here. 10* Buffalo |
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12-06-21 | Grizzlies v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 105-90 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Miami (7:35 ET): Two teams missing star players meet on the court Monday as the Heat play host to the Grizzlies. Surprisingly, Memphis has gone 4-0 SU and ATS without Ja Morant, a stretch which includes a record-setting 152-79 beatdown of the Thunder last Thursday. But you can’t play the likes of OKC every night and even though that win (largest MOV in NBA history) was followed by a 97-90 win in Dallas on Saturday, I just don’t think that the Grizz can continue to win like this without Morant. Miami has been without Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler, resulting in them losing three of their last four games. Adebayo is out for six weeks, so forget about him for now. But there’s a chance Butler could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if he does or not, expect the Heat to win “going away.” There’s still enough firepower on hand here, including Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. Look for the team to shoot a lot better tonight than it did vs. Milwaukee (40.5%) on Saturday. Though it’s the 73-point win that grabbed all the headlines, the Grizzlies have been winning mostly because of their defense, which has held the last four opponents well below 40% from the field. That likely cannot continue. Even with the record-setting win over OKC, the Grizz still have a negative point differential for the season and on the road they are being outscored by over eight points per game. Miami remains a top four team in the Eastern Conference and their defensive numbers are set to improve. 10* Miami |
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12-05-21 | Broncos +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 9-22 | Loss | -116 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
9* Denver (8:20 ET): I think that this spread is way too high given these two AFC West teams have nearly identical YTD point differentials. Denver has outscored their opponents by 32 points this season while Kansas City is +31. I took the Broncos last week and as a slight home dog they delivered an impressive outright win, 28-13 over the Chargers. That has them at 6-5, tied with the Chargers and Raiders for second place in the division, one game behind the first place Chiefs. I’m taking the points here. Chiefs HC Andy Reid has been profitable in his career when off a bye, but he’s just 1-3 ATS the L4 times in that situation. Going back to last year, Kansas City has been a disaster at the betting window, going just 6-19 ATS the L25 games. Prior to the bye, the Chiefs did beat the Raiders 41-14 and the Cowboys 19-9. But those were two of their biggest wins all season. Before that, they had just two double digit wins and both came on the road against NFC East teams. At home, the Chiefs are just 1-5 ATS this season and averaging only 21.5 PPG. Believe it or not, this will be just the fourth time this year that Denver is an underdog. I already mentioned cashing in on them last week at home vs. the Chargers. But I also had them +10 in Dallas back on November 7th when they won outright 30-16. This is a huge game for the Broncos as they’ve lost 11 straight times to the Chiefs, many of them blowouts. They aren’t looking to get blown out on national TV. A defense that allows the league’s fewest number of trips into the red zone should - at the very least - help the Broncos stay within the number. 9* Denver |
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12-05-21 | Wizards v. Raptors -1.5 | Top | 90-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
10* Toronto (6:05 ET): The Raptors are just 4-10 (SU and ATS) over their last 14 games with three separate three-game losing streaks. But, in the midst of what is a pretty long homestand, they did just knock off the reigning NBA Champion Bucks Thursday night, 97-93 as 4.5-point dogs. That was no small feat as Milwaukee entered the game on an 8-game winning streak. Toronto’s home record of 3-8 SU still leaves a lot to be desired, but I’m willing to lay a small number on Sunday in what looks to be a favorable spot. The Raptors will host Washington tonight. The Wizards are coming off a 116-101 loss to Cleveland on Friday where at one point they were on the wrong end of a 27-2 run. They never led after the first quarter and at one point found themselves behind by as many as 36 points. Now the Wiz are set to play three road games in four nights. This hasn’t been a very good road team as they score just 101.8 PPG away from home. The last six road games have seen the Wizards go 1-5 ATS. Toronto has failed to score 100 points in four consecutive games while shooting around 40%. You’ve got to figure they are due to breakthrough offensively. The Wizards are not exactly known for their defense and have given up an average of 110.4 points their L5 games. The Raptors have done a good job defensively, at least recently, holding their last three opponents all below 42% shooting. They held Memphis to 38.7% and Milwaukee to 37.6%! The upcoming schedule is favorable and this is a team due to go on a run at home. 10* Toronto |
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12-05-21 | Cardinals v. Bears +7.5 | Top | 33-22 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): While I’m not going so far as to predict a Bears outright victory here, I do believe they can keep the game close at home. They’re coming off a “mini-bye” as Monsters of the Midway last played on Thanksgiving when they defeated Detroit 16-14 as three-point favorites. They may not have covered the spread, but HC Matt Nagy (on the hot seat) will gladly take the SU win as it snapped a five-game losing skid. The Bears’ last three games have been decided by a total of seven points. Arizona is a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road. Winning every road game is tough enough. Covering them all is very rare. The 9-2 Cardinals are coming off their bye, but QB Kyler Murray remains a “gametime decision” as the team looks to be cautious given Murray’s injury history. They probably think they don’t need him to beat the Bears, especially after backup Colt McCoy led a 23-13 “upset” in Seattle two weeks ago. The Cards are actually 2-1 with McCoy as the starter. My view is that if Murray does play, we’re going to get a better number. So you may want to wait closer to kickoff to bet this one. Andy Dalton will start for the Bears. Not inspiring, but he threw for 317 yards last week. It was the first 300+ yard day by a Bears QB since Nick Foles last season. Also, RB David Montgomery is back. Look for edge-rusher Robert Quinn to pressure whomever Arizona’s QB ends up being. I just can’t see the Cardinals winning a seventh straight road game by double digits. Only two other teams (in NFL HISTORY) have done it six times. In addition to Murray, WR DeAndre Hopkins is also a game-time decision. Hold your nose and take the points in this one. 8* Chicago |
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12-05-21 | Chargers v. Bengals -3 | Top | 41-22 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): With the Bengals favored by only three points at home, oddsmakers are essentially saying they see these teams as “even” on a neutral field. I have a different view. After B2B impressive wins (over the Raiders and Steelers), Cincinnati has a +83 YTD point differential. That’s third best in the AFC, trailing only the Patriots and Bills. Don’t forget the Bengals also blew out the Ravens, 41-17 back in Week 7. That’s a Ravens team that blew out the Chargers 34-6 the week prior. Los Angeles, despite being 6-5 SU, comes into this game with a -20 YTD point differential. I chose to fade the Chargers last week and that ended up being a wise decision. They went to Denver as 2.5-point favorites and lost outright 28-13. Despite outgaining the Broncos, LA never led and trailed most of the way by double digits. More bad news is the fact this just isn’t the Chargers “time of year.” In Weeks 10 through 13, they are 2-8 SU and 0-10 ATS. It gets worse as they are also 1-7 SU/ATS coming off a division loss. The fact that this team has been outscored tells me they aren’t as good as their record. The defense really struggles to stop the run (164 YPG allowed on the road) and has given up an average of 31.3 PPG the L7 weeks. You can look for the Bengals’ offense, which has scored 31+ points in five of its last six games, to take advantage of that suspect Chargers’ defense. Also note that this is an early start for the road team (10 AM West Coast time), which is a disadvantage. The last time the Chargers played a 1 PM ET game was … the blowout loss to Baltimore. They are averaging only 19.2 PPG on the road. That just won’t cut it against a Bengals team that is one of the most improved in the league this year. The Cincinnati defense has allowed just 23 points in the L2 games. 10* Cincinnati |
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12-05-21 | Monmouth v. Canisius +5.5 | Top | 79-65 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* Canisius (1:00 ET): Going with the short home dog in this one as Canisius should be highly motivated facing a team that’s unbeaten, ATS that is. Monmouth is 7-0 vs. the number thus far, one of only four teams in the country to be 6-0 ATS or better. The Hawks are also 6-1 SU with the only loss coming at Charlotte in the season opener. Since then, they’ve gone on quite the run, which includes an outright upset at Cincinnati two weeks ago. But you’ve got to think they are due to “slip up.” Another motivating factor for Canisius is that they’ve lost five straight to their MAAC rivals (also 0-5 ATS in those games). Furthermore, the Golden Griffins have lost two straight at home - 89-75 to Cornell and 74-68 to Fairfield. They went off as the favorite in both games. After losing the conference opener, Canisius is now 2-6 SU on the year, so this is pretty close to a “must-win” for them. It’s just tough for me to see this team losing three in a row at home. Plus, Monmouth is due to drop a game, at least at the betting window. Sure enough, Canisius is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS its last three times as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. They were blistered by hot shooting in the L2 games as Cornell shot 61.8% and Fairfield shot 53.6%. Monmouth has averaged just 59 points the L2 games and will be playing its third straight away game and second in three days. They benefited from the opponent (Niagara) shooting just 28.6% on Friday. That’s quite the difference from Canisius’ last two opponents. Look for the shooting to “even out” in this early Sunday start. Take the points. 10* Canisius |
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12-04-21 | Iowa +11 v. Michigan | Top | 3-42 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
8* Iowa (8:00 ET): This is a very tricky spot for #2 Michigan as they are off the emotional win over Ohio State (1st time beating the Buckeyes since 2011) and now find themselves as double digit favorites over a tough Iowa team. All the Wolverines need to do here is win and they are on to the College Football Playoff. But winning by double digits against a team that is 10-2 SU with six straight victories over ranked opponents will not be easy to do. I’m taking the points here as favorites are on a 2-8 ATS run in Big 10 Championship Games, including 0-5 when it’s not Ohio State. Michigan is ranked #2 in the country right now, but so was Iowa at one point earlier in the year. That was pre-CFP rankings, but it’s still worth noting. While the Hawkeyes were actually underdogs to a 3-8 Nebraska team last week, they’ve never gotten more than four points - in any game - from the oddsmakers this season. I know that they are not the prettiest team (outgained in five of the last six games) and I was actually on the other side (Nebraska) last Friday. But an additional day between games and a stout defense should keep this one close throughout. Michigan has been very good at the betting window thus far. In fact, they have the best ATS record in the country at 10-2 (4-0 L4). But this is arguably the most pressure they’ve had to deal with all season. It’s their first ever Big 10 Championship Game appearance and I just don’t see the favorite scoring enough to cover this number. The running game that was so effective last week vs. Ohio State now faces a top 15 defense in rush yards allowed. Teams off B2B ATS wins heading into Conference Championship Games are just 42.1% ATS all-time. 8* Iowa |
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12-04-21 | Houston v. Cincinnati -10 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (4:00 ET): There is obviously a TON of pressure on #4 Cincinnati here as the Bearcats are looking to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff. They are 11-0 and ranked #4, so all they probably need to do here is to win the game straight up. But why leave things to chance? If Michigan, Alabama and Oklahoma State all win today, then the Bearcats are probably “sweating” on Selection Sunday. However, a big win from Cincy on Saturday would essentially render all other results irrelevant to their plight and guarantee them a spot in the top four. So I’m laying the points. The fact that this American Conference Championship Game is taking place at (historic) Nippert Stadium (where Cincy has won 26 in a row) is being underrated in my eyes. This season has seen the Bearcats go 6-0 SU at home with the average margin of victory being 32.5 points per game. Now they’re obviously not playing teams as good as Houston every week. But this will be just the fourth time this season that Cincinnati is favored by fewer than two touchdowns. They are 3-0 ATS previously, beating Notre Dame and Indiana on the road and SMU here at home. All three wins were by double digits. With their own 11-game win streak, Houston is seemingly a “trendy dog” in this matchup. Normally, I gravitate towards the underdog, but not when they’re trendy like this. The last two times Cincinnati has faced Houston, the Bearcats have won by a combined 43 points. It was 38-10 LY here at Nippert Stadium as the home team finished with a massive 510-282 edge in total yardage. Houston has failed to cover in five straight December/January games and I just don’t think they are on Cincinnati’s level. My power ratings say this spread should be closer to two touchdowns, so I’ll lay the points. 8* Cincinnati |
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12-04-21 | Georgia v. Alabama +6.5 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 41 h 15 m | Show |
10* Alabama (4:00 ET): I think we can all agree that Georgia was the best team in the country during the regular season. The #1 ranked Bulldogs trailed only four times all year, only once after the first quarter and never in the second half. They had a 14+ point halftime lead in 10 of their 12 games, including each of the last five. They come into the SEC Championship Game fresh off their third shutout season, a 45-0 win over Georgia Tech as 35-point favorites. Unsurprisingly, the Dawgs have been successful at the betting window (8-4 ATS) as well, but they are about to encounter their toughest test of 2021. I look at this line and think it’s a big mistake to be doubting Nick Saban this much. #3 Alabama will be an underdog here for just the second time in its last 165 games. This seems to be the first time in seemingly FOREVER that public sentiment seems to have shifted AGAINST Saban and the Crimson Tide. I think a lot of that has to do with last week’s close call against Auburn, a 24-22 win that went to four overtimes. The Tide were a strong fade for me in the Iron Bowl as I thought the 20.5-point spread was way too high for a rivalry game. But it should be noted they outgained Auburn 388-159. Again, given the Tide’s resume, doubting them here seems foolish to me. An outright win by the dog seems more likely here than a blowout loss, especially with Bama having beaten Georgia six straight times, including twice in the SEC Championship Game. Taking the points here also seems prudent given the situation as it relates to the College Football Playoff. Alabama probably needs to win this game. It is possible that they could remain in the top four even with a loss, but it would have to be a close loss. Georgia is trying to protect the #1 seed, but is already assured of being in the playoff no matter what. So there’s a greater sense of urgency on the Crimson Tide sideline. Much is being made over the Tide’s ability to protect QB Bryce Young against the #1 ranked UGA defense. But I think that Bama’s defense, led by Will Anderson Jr (leads the country in sacks and TFL) can put pressure on Georgia QB Stetson Bennett. 10* Alabama |
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12-03-21 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Mavs | Top | 107-91 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans look for revenge tonight after being run out of their own gym in their last game. The Mavericks beat them 139-107 on Wednesday while shooting a blistering 68.7% from the field. That kind of offensive performance doesn’t happen all that often (it was a franchise-record!), so I think it’s safe to say we can expect colder shooting from the Mavs here tonight. I know that New Orleans has gotten off to a bad start this season (6-18), but they’d won three of four going into Wednesday night’s game. This is a spot where I want to take the points. Aside from the top three teams (Phoenix, Golden State & Utah), all of whom are VERY good, the Western Conference is looking a little depth-shy this season. The Mavs come into tonight in fourth place, but they’ve actually allowed more points than they’ve scored this season. Jason Kidd’s team had to be ecstatic with their own offensive effort Weds night considering their previous two opponents shot 57% and 56% against them. In their last home game, Dallas lost 114-96 to Cleveland. The inconsistency of this team makes it hard for me to believe they are capable of turning in a second straight dominant performance, which is what is needed with this kind of spread. The Mavs have lost five of seven, so New Orleans was the hotter team entering Wednesday’s game. It boiled down to Dallas coming out red hot. The Mavs were 18 of 34 from three-point range, which certainly won’t be duplicated here as they are just 34.1% for the year from behind the arc. Not only are the Pelicans 5-2 ATS off their previous seven straight up losses, but the Mavs are just 1-4 ATS the previous five times they’ve been off a double digit win. Take the points here. 10* New Orleans |
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12-03-21 | 76ers +1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): The 76ers come into Friday having won just 3 of their last 12 games. They lost 88-87 in Boston on Wednesday as Joel Embiid, still working his way back from a three-week absence due to COVID-19, struggled again. Embiid had 42 points and 14 rebounds in his first game back, but has gone a miserable 7 of 33 from the floor in the two games since. As a team, the 76ers are shooting just 40.8% in their L5 games. But I expect them to “step up” tonight in what amounts to a “must-win” game at Atlanta. The Hawks have played much better than the 76ers recently, winning 8 of their last 10 including a 114-111 at Indiana on Wednesday. But they remain short-handed as Bogdan Bogdanovic, Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter all remain out of action. Trae Young really carried the team with a 33-point effort on Wednesday, but the Hawks probably can’t rely on that again here. This is a team that is heavily two-point dependent and the Sixers do an excellent job at defending inside the arc, especially with Embiid on the floor. Despite Embiid’s struggles in the L2 games, the All-Star clear makes Philly more formidable. Again, I expect the Sixers to break out of their recent shooting slump here (Atlanta is just 23rd in defensive efficiency). With a healthy Embiid, they smoked the Hawks earlier in the year, 122-94, as they shot 53.5% from the field. That gave them a measure of revenge after being eliminated from LY’s playoffs by the Hawks, but you know Philly will be hungry for more. The Sixers’ last two losses were both by one point and they are better than their 11-11 SU record. Take the points. 8* Philadelphia |
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12-03-21 | Western Kentucky v. UTSA +3.5 | Top | 41-49 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
8* UTSA (7:00 ET): Bettors REALLY seem eager to “write off” UTSA now that the Roadrunners are no longer unbeaten. There is no denying the fact that last week’s 45-23 loss to a hot North Texas team (that was also looking to become eligible) was a bad showing from the West Division Champs of C-USA. But “writing off” a team that won its first 11 games and is playing for a conference championship on its home field seems like a mistake. With UTSA moving from slight favorite to home dog, I’m taking the points Friday night. The Roadrunners are 6-0 SU at home this season, winning by an average of 22.2 PPG! Western Kentucky, the champs of C-USA’s East Division, is a team deserving of respect. But even after seven straight wins and going 5-0 ATS L5 games, the Hilltoppers probably should not be favored here. None of those seven straight wins have been against teams with winning records. Two were against 6-6 teams (Old Dominion and Middle Tennessee) while the rest were against the dregs of Conference USA. It should be noted that WKU’s last loss came at the hands of UTSA, 52-46 in Bowling Green. With the Hilltoppers losing that game outright as a home favorite, I don’t see how they are now favored on the road. Though an unbeaten season was on the line, last week seemed like a “flat spot” for UTSA. They were coming off a thrilling 34-31 home win over UAB (thanks to a last second TD) that clinched them a spot in this C-USA Title Game. So, in essence, the Roadrunners really had nothing to play for in Denton. It was rainy and three early fumbles against proved to be killers as they fell behind 17-3 in the first quarter. Now they’re back at home and I expect an offense that has averaged “only” 28 points the L3 games to get back on track against a WKU defense they hung 52 points and 564 total yards on in the first meeting. Also, at home, UTSA’s defense is allowing just 13.0 PPG. 8* UTSA |
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12-02-21 | Montana v. CS Sacramento +5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* Sacramento State (10:00 ET): Both Montana and Sacramento State head into the Big Sky opener off humbling defeats. Stepping up in class to face a team from the Pac 12 did not go well for either side as Sacramento State lost 105-59 at Arizona on Saturday while Montana was an 87-47 loser in Oregon on Monday. While Montana had won three in a row prior to that blowout loss, they are at a disadvantage here, playing their third game in seven days and second straight time on the road. The loss to Arizona is the only game Sacramento State has played in the last nine days. The Hornets have had two more days to prepare for this conference opener than Montana has. That’s pretty key in a matchup where I don’t see much of an edge for the favorite, even if the amount of time between games was equal. Also, Sacramento State happens to be 5-0 ATS off its previous five SU losses. Then you’ve got to take into account the fact Montana is 0-3 SU/ATS on the road so far. While two of those games were against teams from “power conferences” (Miss State and Oregon), both went VERY badly (Montana lost by a combined 77 points) and the Golden Grizzlies also lost outright (as seven-point favorites) at North Dakota. An 89-83 home win last year, in overtime, marked the first time Sacramento State beat Montana since 2017. You have to figure they’ll be hungry for their first regulation win in the rivalry in nearly five years. At home, the Hornets are absolutely capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points. 10* Sacramento State |
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12-01-21 | BYU v. Utah Valley +14 | Top | 65-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
8* Utah Valley State (9:00 ET): So BYU is 6-0 and ranked #12 in the country right now. But despite that record, which includes an impressive beatdown of Oregon (in Portland), I’m not convinced the Cougars are even one of the top 25 teams in America. Yes, they proved me wrong when they went to Salt Lake City on Saturday and beat rival Utah 75-64 as one-point favorites. But they are much bigger favorites tonight at Utah Valley State and covering this spread is going to be a lot more problematic for them. Utah Valley State is no slouch as they bring a 6-1 SU record into this contest. Their lone loss came in the season opener, by 20 at Boise State. Since then, it’s been six straight wins, all of which have seen the Wolverines score 74 or more points. They are averaging 79.5 PPG here at home. So unless it’s some kind of unforeseen poor effort at the defensive end of the floor tonight, I see the Wolverines covering this spread pretty easily. My own power ratings say this spread should be single digits. Coming off a win over Utah, this has the makings of a “letdown” game for BYU. Meanwhile, Utah Valley State should be incredibly fired up to be facing a “bigger” in-state foe. (The respective campuses are just five miles apart). Utah Valley already has pulled a couple upsets, one over Long Beach State and another against CBI Champion Pepperdine. An outright win here would be quite the achievement. I can’t say it’s going to happen, but the underdog will cover the generous number. 8* Utah Valley State |
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11-30-21 | Lakers v. Kings +3.5 | Top | 117-92 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): With the Western Conference being SO depth-shy this season, it feels like the perfect time for the Kings to end their mind-numbing 15-year playoff drought. But entering tonight, they are in 11th place, five games below .500 and two games back of where they’d need to be just to make the play-in round. The good news is that the season is still young. But if they wish to make the playoffs for the first time since 2007, they can’t afford to fall too far behind. They’ve already fired Luke Walton, which tells me there’s a real sense of desperation in Sacramento right now. The same sense of desperation doesn’t exist down in LA, but it probably should for a Lakers team that is just 11-11 SU and being outscored on a per game and per play basis. Now being without LeBron James for several games has played a role in that, but with James in the lineup the Lakers lost to the Kings 141-137 in triple overtime last week. They bounced back by beating the lowly Pistons on Sunday, but by just four points and again that was with LeBron in the lineup. Most are going to want to lay this short number with the Lakers as they are playing with revenge. But it’s been nearly three weeks since the Lakers posted B2B victories and both of those were by only three points. In fact, five of the Lakers seven wins this month have been by five points or less and none have been by more than eight! They are just 4-12 ATS as favorites this season and I think the Kings, motivated by an early-season coaching change, are capable of beating the Lakers for a second time in less than a week. Take the points. 10* Sacramento |
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11-30-21 | Pepperdine +15 v. Nevada | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): It is my view that Nevada should not be laying double digits here. While Pepperdine (losers of four in a row) is definitely struggling right now, the favored Wolf Pack are just 3-4 SU themselves and highly unlikely to replicate the efforts we saw from them in the L2 games, wins over George Mason and Washington in the Crossover Classic at Sioux Falls, SD. It’s been a long journey back to Reno (last 5 games all away from home) and the last time the Wolf Pack played here, they lost outright to another WCC team (San Diego) 75-68 as 13.5-point chalk. Take the points here. Plus, while Pepperdine has been losing, most of the games have been close. The last three games were all decided by single digits, including a 59-56 game against Grand Canyon (who I just won with last night) on Saturday. The Waves never trailed by more than six in that one and were ahead with less than two minutes to go. Prior to that, they gave Fresno State and TCU tough games at the SoCal Challenge. Nevada is actually 0-2 against the WCC this season. Not only did they lose that home game to San Diego that I already mentioned, but they also gave up 96 points in a horrible loss at Santa Clara. They’ve also been torched for 102 points by South Dakota State! This is a bad team defensively, so Pepperdine is basically a lock to shoot better here than they did against Grand Canyon (35.1%) in the last game. The Waves are a (slightly) better three-point shooting team than Nevada and they are 6-1 ATS when on a three-game losing streak the L3 seasons. 8* Pepperdine |
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11-30-21 | Long Beach State +20.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 47-72 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Long Beach State (10:00 ET): While I do not expect The Beach to win this game, it’s a generous number that they are taking from San Diego State and this should end up being closer than what the oddsmakers think. Just last Wednesday, LBSU did pull an outright upset, beating Wright State 85-76 as 10-point underdogs to earn their only win in the Naples Invitational. Coming off a humbling 80-43 loss to Murray State, it was somewhat of a shocking effort from LBSU, who basically led from start to finish. San Diego State is 4-2 SU on the year, but does not have a win by greater than 17 points and they just lost 58-43 to USC on Friday. That loss, which took place in Anaheim as part of the Wooden Classic, saw the Aztecs have a dreadful shooting effort as they made only 32.1% of their total field goal attempts and were 3 of 17 from three-point range. At halftime, they had just 15 points, their lowest scoring 1H since a game vs. Air Force back in January of 2019. Now I’m not going to make the case that The Beach can play defense like USC does. The Trojans are a Top 25 team. But take note that SDSU also barely survived games against inferior sides Arizona State and UT Arlington, winning those by a combined eight points. The key to this game will be LBSU speeding up the tempo. They play at one of the quickest paces in the country, averaging 76 possessions per game. Junior Joel Murray leads The Beach in scoring and has averaged 16.6 points over the L5 games. Three seniors have combined to average 43% of the team’s points this year. San Diego State, who plays at a very slow pace, has seen its leading scorer (Matt Bradley) go just 3 for 14 from three-point range in the L3 games. Take the points. 10* Long Beach State |
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11-30-21 | Crystal Palace +0.25 v. Leeds United | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -117 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
10* Crystal Palace (3:15 ET): So for this particular bet to cash, all we need is our side to play to a draw. I like our odds, especially since I am expecting Crystal Palace to defeat Leeds United on Tuesday. CP just saw their seven-match unbeaten run come to an end Saturday with a disappointing 2-1 loss to Aston Villa. But the Eagles still sit in 11th place with 16 points on the year and only the top four teams in the table have suffered fewer defeats this campaign than CP’s three. While they only have three wins, their league-leading seven draws are something that should give confidence provided the nature of this bet. After earning promotion back into the EPL at the end of the 2019-20 season, Leeds had a strong return to this level of football, finishing ninth in 2020-21. But this season has seen them seemingly fall prey to the old “second season jinx” as the Whites currently sit 17th in the table and dangerously close to the drop zone, only three points clear. They enter Tuesday in especially poor form, having won just one of their last six EPL fixtures. That win came at the expense of dreadful Norwich City last month. In fact, both of Leeds’ wins this season have come against newly promoted sides. While Leeds did earn a 0-0 draw with Brighton over the weekend, they were quite lucky to do so after being outshot 2:1 and seeing Brighton hit the woodwork twice in the first half. It was actually the first clean sheet of the season for Leeds and now they must face a CP side that has scored two or more goals in four of its last five away matches, a run that includes fixtures with the likes of Arsenal, Man City and West Ham. Other than the top four, no Premier League side is looking all that impressive this season. A win here would get Palace into sixth place on GD and I simply don’t see them doing any worse than a draw. 10* Crystal Palace |
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11-29-21 | Grand Canyon +4 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 78-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* Grand Canyon (10:00 ET): The Antelopes of Grand Canyon University face their second West Coast Conference opponent in three days here. Back on Saturday, they edged Pepperdine 59-56 but did not cover the number as 3.5 point favorites. This time GCU is an underdog as it heads to Loyola Marymount. It will be the first time this season that GCU is an underdog. They have a 5-1 SU record with the lone loss coming by seven (at home) to Wyoming. I think they’re the better team here, so take the points. Loyola Marymount is 4-2 SU. They lost the opener 75-64 (as seven-point favorites) to UT Chattanooga. The other loss was less surprising, as it came against Florida State, but it was a humbling defeat as the Lions went down 73-45 as 6.5-point dogs. Since that loss to FSU, LMU has defeated SMU (as a 3.5-point dog) and Prairie View A&M. The game vs. PV A&M was closer than expected (as in decided by three points) as LMU came in as 13.5-point chalk for that game. So they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites thus far and have just one win by greater than seven points. Loyola Marymount actually trailed Prairie View A&M, a winless team, at the half on Saturday. They were very fortunate to get to the charity stripe 36 times as they converted 32 of those FT attempts. Without that, they probably would have lost the game. That Grand Canyon was able to win its last game, despite going 5 of 19 from three-point range, is a positive sign as I anticipate they’ll shoot a lot better tonight. When the Antelopes faced PV A&M earlier in the season, they won by 27. GCU has also held four of its six opponents below 60 points. 8* Grand Canyon |
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11-29-21 | Notre Dame v. Illinois -4 | Top | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
8* Illinois (9:00 ET): It might seem like an ideal time to fade the Fighting Illini, as they are coming off a very narrow win over UT Rio Grande Valley and have multiple players either injured or sick. But they still have Kofi Cockburn, who carried them against UTRGV with a career-high 38 points. Sometimes all you need is that one great player and Cockburn is definitely one of the best in the entire country this season. Despite their uneven start to the year, I think the Illini are going to take care of business here vs. Notre Dame in the opening day of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Notre Dame just played in the Maui Invitational, which was held in Las Vegas this year. The Fighting Irish lost two of their three games in the desert, the one win coming against D-II Chaminade. They are now 0-4 ATS on the season as the final game of the tournament saw them blow a 10-point halftime lead against Texas A&M and lose 73-67 as 3.5-point favorites. That was a tough stretch of three games in three days for the Irish and while they’ve had the last four days off, I don’t think they’re ready for their first Top 25 opponent of the young season. Illinois is 0-4 ATS its last four games, including two outright losses, but I like the short number here in what is a favorable matchup. Cockburn and teammate Alfonso Plummer both went for 30+ against UTRGV, marking the first time since 1990 Illinois had two players go for 30+ in the same game. Notre Dame doesn’t defend well as opponents are making 42.7% from three-point range against them. And with Cockburn, the Illini should also be able to dominate down low. Lay the points. 8* Illinois |
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11-28-21 | Browns +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 52 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): The Browns were 0-7 ATS in division games under HC Kevin Stefanski, but then they blew out Cincinnati, 41-16 (as 1-pt road dogs) three weeks ago. That was another game where the sharp money was seemingly on them, despite being off less than a stellar performance. Before beating the Bengals, the Browns had lost 15-10 to the Steelers. Here they are off a win, albeit an unimpressive one, 13-10 (as 13.5 point chalk) over the winless Lions. I think Cleveland will surprise you in this spot. Baltimore has been a pretty lucky team this season. They are 7-3 SU and lead the AFC North, but that’s thanks in no small part to a 5-1 SU record in one-score games. There have been four games decided by three points or less and the Ravens have won all them. The latest was last week, 16-13 over Chicago, where the Ravens were outgained 353-299. I know there was no Lamar Jackson in that game, but the Ravens very nearly lost. It was the FOURTH time this year they got the go-ahead score in the final minute. Twice this year they’ve come back from a double digit deficit to win in overtime. Cleveland was leading 13-0 last week at the half. The offense did nothing in the second half as QB Baker Mayfield isn’t 100% and continues to struggle. But the only real mistake made by the Browns’ defense last week was giving up one long TD run. The Lions’ FG came after a 9-yard drive. Cleveland is healthy again at RB, which is the key to their offensive success. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in six different games this season, including four of the last five. Baltimore is only 2-6 ATS as a favorite thus far. Take the points. 8* Cleveland |
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11-28-21 | Rams -1 v. Packers | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -119 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (4:25 ET): This line has certainly shifted during the week, but I think the line move is warranted. The game might be in Lambeau Field (where it will be cold), but the Rams have had two weeks to prepare for this game after heading into the bye on a two-game losing streak. Due to COVID and a toe injury, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has not been able to practice regularly the last three weeks. I believe the Rams are the better team here and think they’ll show it on Sunday. I faded Green Bay last week. Despite them playing nearly flawlessly, I came away with a winning ticket as the Vikings pulled a 34-31 upset, thanks to a GW field goal as time expired. That snapped what had been a record-setting 9-game ATS win streak for the Packers. My view is they are still due to “give some back.” I say this based on the fact they only have a +33 point differential, despite their 8-3 SU record. I just don’t think the Pack are as good as their record would seem to indicate. This is also a big-time revenge game for the Rams, who are 0-7 ATS the L7 meetings with the Packers, including a playoff loss last January. Green Bay has won six of those previous seven meetings outright. But the Rams are not only rested this time, but have also upgraded their roster with the additions of Von Miller and Odell Beckham Jr. Green Bay is dealing with some injuries along the offensive line and could struggle to protect Rodgers in this matchup. Having not had their bye yet (comes next week), the Packers could be somewhat gassed, especially compared to a rested opponent. 10* LA Rams |
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11-28-21 | Chargers v. Broncos +3 | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
9* Denver (4:05 ET): It seems as if every Chargers’ game ends up close these days. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less and they’ve won three of those. The Chargers’ history in closely-contested affairs is not good, so it’s a bit of a surprise to see them 5-3 in one-score games this year. Despite being 6-4 SU overall, the Chargers have a -5 point differential. I know that last week’s 41-37 win over Pittsburgh should NOT have ended up so close, but still I think it’s dicey to trust Brandon Staley’s team laying points on the division road. Despite being a game behind LA in the AFC West standings, Denver actually has a better YTD point differential (+17). Considering that and that they both at home and off a bye, the Broncos should be favored here. After not being favored in a single game last season (only team in the league that could say that), Denver was actually favored in its first six games of 2021. They’ve only been an underdog in two games this season. Meanwhile, the Chargers are 0-3 ATS their last three games as a favorite. The Broncos are also 9-2 ATS off a bye, including 2-0 under HC Vic Fangio. The home team already had a decided edge defensively. They allow only 18.3 PPG. The Chargers allow 26.5 PPG and rank 32nd (i.e. last) against the run. Now Bradley Chubb has been activated and is expected to play Sunday. That should bolster Denver’s pass rush and keep the pressure on Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert. Also, as we saw again last week vs. Pittsburgh - when they had a punt blocked - LA’s special teams continue to be a major liability. Take the points. 9* Denver |
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11-28-21 | Titans +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 13-36 | Loss | -125 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): The Titans are off a shocking loss where they outgained the Texans 420-190. But they were also -5 in turnover differential and that’s the primary reason they lost 22-13 as 10-point favorites. That and they are a banged up football team right now. But Tennessee still has the best WL record in the AFC right now (8-3 SU) and I think they can stay within the number this week, despite playing the new hottest team in the NFL. The Titans are a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog this season, also winning outright all five times! Not saying they’ll win outright again here, but take the points. The Patriots seem to be the new “toast of the town” right now as they’ve won five in a row, four of those victories coming by 18 or more points. Bill Belichick’s team entered Thanksgiving with the top point differential in the league at +123. (Have since been passed in the department by Buffalo). The league’s top scoring defense (16.1 PPG allowed) has been key, but so has being +9 in turnover differential during the win streak. The Pats have also covered five in a row, so between that and the Titans’ record as a dog, something will have to give Sunday. My thinking is the Pats are EXTREMELY popular right now and it’s probably a good time to fade. This line has really risen during the week. New England is off the “mini-bye,” after playing last Thursday. They shut the Falcons out 25-0 last time we saw them. But if you think the extended rest is a good thing for the Patriots, then think again as they are 0-6 ATS the L6 times they’ve been off extra rest. Tennessee isn’t just perfect as a dog, they are also 4-1 ATS on the road. HC Mike Vrabel is 2-0 SU/ATS vs. Belichick, whom he previously served under. I think the Titans’ loss last week was HIGHLY misleading (given the total yardage discrepancy) while at the same time wanting to “sell high” on the Pats. 8* Tennessee |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. USC +7 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
8* USC (10:30 ET): It’s been an ugly season at USC. Clay Helton was fired after a 42-28 loss to Stanford and since that time, there’s been little in the way of improvement. The Trojans are 0-5 ATS their last five games, losing four of them straight up. The lone win was against Arizona and last week may have been a new low as they were crushed 62-33 by rival UCLA here at the Coliseum. Looking back, can you believe this team was actually FAVORED against Utah? The fact the Trojans were home favorites against the Utes only underscores what a disappointing season this has been in Southern California. USC is in danger of its second losing season in three years. Before that, they had not had a losing year since 2000. But a strong finish, unlikely as it may seem, would get the Trojans to a bowl game. They have to win these last two games, mind you. Beating #13 BYU may seem unlikely, but I do see plenty of value on the home dog at this price. My power ratings have this line much closer to a pick ‘em. I do not think for a second that BYU is the 13th best team in the country. My power ratings don’t even have them in the Top 40. The Cougars are 4-0 SU against Pac 12 teams this season, but all four wins were by 10 points or less. They’ve been beating up on some weak teams down the stretch, like Idaho State and Georgia Southern the last two weeks. I just think USC is better than what it's shown on the field this season and in the final home game, I expect them to “show up.” They’ve got a good running game and that should keep them in this one. Take the points. 8* USC |
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11-27-21 | BYU v. Utah +1 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* Utah (9:30 ET): Two 5-0 teams meet in Salt Lake City tonight with Utah hosting rival BYU. Brigham Young is ranked (#18), but that’s basically based on one win - an admittedly impressive 81-49 thrashing of Oregon. But I told you to fade this team earlier in the week and sure enough they failed to cover the spread against Texas Southern. Here, the Cougars won’t enjoy the same kind of size advantage they had in their last game. I look for Utah to hand them their first loss of the year. The Utes don’t have a marquee win like BYU does, but four of their five wins have been by double digits. In addition to having the home court advantage, the schedule sets up nicely for Utah, who has not played since Sunday when they beat Tulsa 72-58 in Daytona Beach. That was a game they controlled start to finish. This is BYU’s first “true” road game of the season. Utah is 23-7 SU its last 30 home games and is looking to avenge an 18-point loss in Provo from last season. These teams have a very similar statistical profile with Utah having slight edges in both PPG allowed and FG% defense. In the end, it boils down to the home court edge, more rest and revenge. 10* Utah |
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11-27-21 | West Virginia -15 v. Kansas | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
9* West Virginia (7:00 ET): I understand that Kansas has been more “competitive” of late, with a win over Texas and a three-point loss to TCU. But WVU must win here in order to become bowl eligible and I don’t see them taking it easy on the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers have won seven straight times in this particular “rivalry,” six of those coming by double digits. My power ratings have this spread north of three touchdowns, so I’ll gladly lay a hair over two. Kansas is still last in the Big 12 in scoring offense and defense. They are also last in total yards on both sides of the ball. So they’ve got a long way to go in terms of being competitive on a regular basis, even if 1st year HC Lance Leipold has them trending in a positive direction. Before the last two weeks, the Jayhawks had lost eight straight double digit games, all but one coming by 19 points or greater. They’ve been outscored on average by 22.8 PPG this season and that number grows to 26.0 PPG in conference action. West Virginia showed last week that it was still interested in making it to a bowl. They beat Texas 31-23 in the Morgantown finale and had 459 yards of total offense. QB Doege leads the Big 12 in passing yards and should have a field day here against a KU defense that has surrendered 52 or more points four different times in 2021. The Mountaineers’ defense may not have to worry about facing Jayhawks RB Devin Neal, who injured his ankle LW vs. TCU. Lay the points. 9* West Virginia |
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11-27-21 | UL-Monroe v. UL-Lafayette -21.5 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
10* Louisiana (4:00 ET): I realize that Louisiana has the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Appalachian State) on deck next week, but I’m not concerned with the “lookahead factor” here at all. The Ragin Cajuns are a vastly superior side compared to rival LA Monroe and this spread is about a touchdown too low. LA Monroe might not be the worst team in the Sun Belt, but they are close. The Warhawks have been underdogs of 23.5 points or more six times in 2021. Why not here? Now it may have something to do with an incredible trend in this rivalry, known as the “Battle of the Bayou.” Over the last 22 years, the road team has gone 19-2-1 ATS! But let’s not forget who won last year. That would be Louisiana and it was by a score of 70-20. That was the 11th SU win by the Ragin Cajuns in the last 13 meetings. That trend that favors the road team is due to go “the other way,” sooner rather than later and 2021 feels like the right time for that to begin. Louisiana is on a 10-game win streak (only loss was to Texas in the season opener). Some of the wins have been close, but they just clobbered Liberty by 28 last week on the road. This Ragin Cajun team has won 15 straight over SBC West foes under HC Billy Napier and is looking for its first perfect conference record as a Sun Belt member. So they are going to come out motivated on Saturday. They want the highest ranking possible for bowl purposes. This spread should be four touchdowns, not three. 10* Louisiana |
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11-27-21 | Alabama v. Auburn +20.5 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
8* Auburn (3:30 ET): I understand that QB Bo Nix is out for the season and that the Tigers have lost three straight. But this is too high of a line for the Iron Bowl, a rivalry game that has seen the home team win eight of the last nine meetings, including five straight. Going back further, the home team is on a 13-4 ATS run in Iron Bowls. Alabama has lost its last two trips to Jordan-Hare, 26-14 as a five-point favorite and 48-45 as a three-point favorite. As per usual, Auburn will treat the Iron Bowl as their “Super Bowl” and I don’t see them being blown out. Bama will win, but take the points. Alabama obviously can’t lose here, but their focus is more likely to be on next week’s SEC Championship Game vs. #1 Georgia. If the Crimson Tide win these next two games, then they’re back in the CFP. My view is there’s no fear of actually losing to Auburn, so this is a classic “trap” spot. The Tide have been by no means “rolling” their last two SEC games, both of which were decided by seven points or less. They beat LSU by six and Arkansas by seven. The defense allowed almost 500 total yards last week. Nix’s replacement is TJ Finley, a transfer from NC State. While he wasn’t all that great the last three quarters against South Carolina last week, that was a road game. Early on, he led two touchdown drives in that game. Finley would be well-served to hand the ball off to RB Tank Bigsby, who has five 100+ yard games this season. My power ratings say this number should be closer to +12, so expect Auburn to surprise the linesmakers a bit in this one as Alabama looks ahead to next week’s SEC Championship. 8* Auburn |
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11-27-21 | Monmouth v. Cincinnati -10.5 | Top | 61-59 | Loss | -118 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (2:00 ET): Cincinnati returns home after playing two tough opponents in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. One of the games went well as the Bearcats upset #14 Illinois, rallying back from a 15-point deficit to win by 20 (as 9.5-point underdogs). But the next day saw them “run out of gas” in a 73-67 loss (as 5-point underdogs) to #13 Arkansas. The Bearcats are hosting Monmouth on Saturday, an opponent they should blowout. Cincy has won its first four home games by an average of 21 points. Monmouth is 5-0 ATS with its only SU loss coming by two in the opener against Charlotte. Since that opening loss, the Hawks have beaten Towson, Lehigh, St. Joe’s and Princeton. So this will be a big step up in class and the first of six consecutive road games over the next 2+ weeks. The Hawks should be no stranger to the road at this point; three of their first five games were played away from home. But this one will be - by far - the toughest. Monmouth lost roughly half of its offensive production from last season. I know that there’s the risk of this being a “flat spot” for the favorite, who is coming off B2B games against Top 15 opponents. But being off a loss, their first of the 2021-22 season, should have Cincinnati properly motivated in this one. The Bearcats are playing outstanding defense thus far, holding teams to just 33.9% shooting overall and 24% from three-point range. Monmouth isn’t going to cover every game and this feels like the spot where their ATS win streak comes to crashing halt. 8* Cincinnati |
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11-27-21 | Florida State v. Florida -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
8* Florida (12:00 ET): This used to be one of the premier matchups of every College Football season. But that was 20 years ago. Now Florida State and Florida are both 5-6 SU and fighting for the right JUST TO GO to a bowl. Florida just fired Dan Mullen, meaning an interim (Greg Knox) will be coaching. Only the winner here gets to go to a bowl. While many are being quick to write off the Gators, Florida State just isn’t very good and given the series history, the home team should be laying more points here. The Gators were 2-0 vs. Florida State under Mullen. The schools did not meet last year because of COVID-19, which was probably just fine as far as the Seminoles were concerned. Not only were they 3-6 SU last year, but the ‘Noles had previously lost to the Gators 40-17 in 2019 and 41-14 in 2018. The side that has been favored has won the last five Sunshine Showdowns and covered 16 of the last 20. Florida is 4-1 SU in Gainesville this year and the last two games here, they’ve put up a total of 112 points. The Gators are just 1-4 SU their L5 games (0-5 ATS) but that’s with two close losses on the road (LSU, Missouri). Florida State has been trending the opposite way, winning five of its last seven. But it’s hard for me to believe the Seminoles are capable of pulling a third straight outright upset. The L2 weeks have seen them beat Miami and Boston College, both by only three points. The Noles’ actually have a trio of three-point wins this season. Homefield advantage is the difference in this one. 8* Florida |
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11-26-21 | Blazers +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): Going to take a chance with the Blazers here as they are catching a decent number. Now it’s against Golden State, who is 16-2 SU and looking like the best team in the league. It’s also a road game for Portland, and they’ve struggled in those, going 1-8 both straight up and against the spread. But prior to losing by just four points in Sacramento, this team had won four in a row, albeit all at home. I think taking the points is the right move here as Portland is one of the few teams capable of matching the Warriors at the offensive end. (Blazers are #4 in offensive efficiency). Golden State’s two losses this year have been by a total of seven points and one of them was in overtime. So, yeah, I’d say it’s been a really impressive start. They have - by far and away - the league’s top point differential as they are beating opponents by an average of 13.5 PPG. They’ve won five straight, four of those coming by double digits. But this figures to be their toughest test since facing Brooklyn. It comes after a holiday and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Dubs come out a bit “sluggish” in this one. They were down 19 in the 2Q Wednesday against Philadelphia, who was short-handed and playing its sixth straight road game. If they are to get an advantage, I don’t think the Blazers will let the Warriors “off the hook” the same way the Sixers did. I know it’s been a struggle on the road. Portland’s lone win away from home so far was against Houston. But the team played well in Sacramento. Damian Lillard had 32 points and 10 assists while Jusuf Nurkic contributed a season-high 28 points and 17 rebounds. You know the underdog is going to come in highly motivated for this one and Golden State isn’t going to win every game. Portland has averaged 117.6 points in its L5 games, so they can easily stay within the number here. 8* Portland |
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11-26-21 | Penn State +9.5 v. LSU | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Penn State (7:00 ET): LSU has shot up the power rankings, thanks to an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS start where they are outscoring the opposition by 34.4 points per game. To put things in perspective, that’s a wider average margin of victory than #1 Gonzaga. But the Tigers have also yet to play anybody from a “power conference.” They’ve faced LA Monroe, Texas State, Liberty, McNeese State and Belmont so far. Of those five teams, only Belmont would rank in the top 150 nationally. So don’t be surprised to see the Tigers tested on Friday. I look for this to be their first ATS loss of the young season. Take the points. Penn State is 3-1, but at the opposite end of the spectrum (from LSU) when it comes to the point spread as their ATS record is 0-4. Early in the season, the Nittany Lions suffered a rather shocking 81-56 defeat at the hands of UMass, which obviously has affected their own power rating. But since that loss (where they were four-point road favorites), PSU has won B2B games, beating both St. Francis NY and Cornell by double digits. Now those aren’t exactly the most impressive of opponents either, but the Nittany Lions did tie a program-record with 15 made three-pointers against Cornell on Monday. This game is being played in Florida as part of a Holiday Tournament. It’s the first time Penn State is an underdog this season. Obviously, I’m not shocked by that. But with the Nittany Lions at 0-4 ATS and LSU at 5-0 ATS, I believe we’re getting a solid value on the dog here. PSU has three double digit scorers, two of which (Lundy and Sessoms) combined to make 11 of those 15 threes in the last game. With LSU yet to play a “real opponent” and this also being their first game away from Baton Rouge, it will be interesting to see how they respond to what figures to be a close game. 10* Penn State |
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11-26-21 | Colorado +24 v. Utah | Top | 13-28 | Win | 100 | 45 h 4 m | Show |
10* Colorado (4:00 ET): So #19 Utah is off its biggest win of the season, a 38-7 beatdown of Oregon that assured the Utes a place in next week’s Pac 12 Championship Game. There is a decent shot that game could be a rematch with the Ducks. But first comes this minor piece of business, the regular season finale where they are huge favorites over Colorado. The Buffaloes have nothing to play for here, but that didn’t stop them last week from upsetting Washington 20-17 as a 6.5-point dog. It would be foolish to expect a similar result here, but the Buffs should keep this one closer than the oddsmakers think. Last week was actually the second upset in three weeks by Colorado. Earlier, also in Boulder, they beat Oregon State 37-34 as an 11.5-point dog. That’s a pretty impressive win, quite frankly. Now the road has been less kind with CU yet to win a single time away from home this season. But catching Utah the week after its biggest win of the season is a favorable situation. The Buffaloes may have been outgained badly last week by Washington, but finding a way to win when you’re 2 of 13 on third down is pretty impressive. I expect the offense to be more efficient on third down here. This is just a classic letdown spot, plain and simple. I know Utah has been rolling, but my power ratings say this spread should be below three touchdowns. So there’s value with the road dog, particularly because they’ll at least be motivated to keep it close against a rival they’ve lost to four years in a row, the last three losses all coming by 17 points or greater. At the very worst, look for the “back door” to be open Friday night in Salt Lake City where the Utes can’t possibly match their intensity from last week. 10* Colorado |
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11-26-21 | Iowa v. Nebraska -1 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 35 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (1:30 ET): What a trying season it’s been in Lincoln for Scott Frost’s Cornhuskers. Did you know - that despite a 1-7 SU conference record - Nebraska actually has a positive point differential in Big 10 games? How is that even possible, you ask? Well, on October 2nd, they beat Northwestern 56-7. The Cornhuskers’ seven losses in Big 10 play this year have been by a total of 42 points, none of them exceeding a nine-point margin. That is insane and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen anything like it before. I think speaks volumes that Nebraska is favored here, even if it’s ever so slightly, against a team that at one point was ranked as high as #2 in the country. Iowa has since slipped to 16th after suffering B2B bad losses to Purdue and Wisconsin last month. Those losses were by a combined 37 points, almost equal to the margin of Nebraska’s seven conference defeats. The Hawkeyes have since righted the ship with three straight wins, but two were by just five points (against N’western and Minnesota) and even last week Kirk Ferentz’s team was outgained (312-255) in a win over Illinois. The Hawkeyes were really lucky during their 6-0 SU start to the season as they forced a lot of turnovers. (Note they were -6 in TO’s in the two games they lost). Nebraska has not beaten Iowa since 2014 with the last three losses - predictably - all coming by six points or less. Frost has been absolutely “snake-bit” in close games during his tenure here with the Cornhuskers going 5-19 SU when the final score is decided by seven points or less. I think it’s time for him to win one. I know that the Cornhuskers have nothing to play for here (except pride!) and QB Martinez will miss the game. But Iowa’s offense is BAD and has been outgained in five consecutive games! Frost deserves this one. 8* Nebraska |
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11-25-21 | San Francisco v. Towson +11.5 | Top | 71-61 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
10* Towson (9:30 ET): This game is part of the Las Vegas Invitational, which is a four-team tournament involving UAB, New Mexico, San Francisco and Towson. Not exactly the most compelling field, but we do have an undefeated San Francisco team that’s 6-0 SU. The Dons have been quite active thus far, but despite their perfect SU record, they are just 2-4 ATS with two wins coming by five points or less. This will be the first time they’ve left home this season and I’m going to take the points in what should be a challenging game for them. Towson comes in with a 3-2 SU record, but they are 4-1 ATS. Both SU losses were by single digits. One was to Monmouth, which was a surprise as the Tigers were 3.5 point home favorites for that game. The other was at Pittsburgh, a more impressive showing as they covered as six-point underdogs. After losing to Pitt 63-59, Towson quickly rebounded by shooting 51% in a 76-61 win over Penn two nights ago. That loss to Pitt is the only game where the Tigers didn’t top 70 points. These teams met last year on Thanksgiving Day with USF emerging victorious 79-68 at the Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. I’m looking for a closer battle this year. Both teams have done an exceptionally good job at defending the three-point line thus far. The thing is, I expect Towson to shoot better from distance in this game. That may sound strange considering they are just 27.5% from behind the arc through five games. But that percentage is bound to improve. They were just 4 of 17 vs. Penn (on 3PA) and still scored 76 points. 10* Towson |
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11-25-21 | Bills v. Saints +6.5 | Top | 31-6 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:20 ET): For the first time since 2016, the Saints have lost three in a row. Now if you are a regular client of mine, that shouldn’t surprise you. I said to fade New Orleans last week and that turned out to be a good bet as they lost 40-29 to the Eagles. Really, things weren’t even as close as that final score makes it seem. The Saints fell behind 33-7 after three quarters and were clearly outclassed from the get-go. But I should mention how turnovers played a key role in that outcome. The Saints had three of them, one of which was an INT that was returned for a TD. They actually outgained the Eagles, slightly, on a per play basis for the game. The key for Philly was having three scoring drives (besides the pick-six) begin in Saints’ territory. What I’m saying is - don’t write off New Orleans just yet. Especially not here at home. Last week marked the first time in five games this season that they did NOT cover as an underdog. They’d won three of the previous four outright. Of course, last week’s game was on the road. I remind you of that because the Saints are 8-2 ATS their L10 games as a home underdog. They are also the only team in the league to alternate ATS wins and losses all season. If that trend holds here, that means they’ll cover the spread. Going back to last season, New Orleans is 6-0 ATS off its previous six ATS losses. Buffalo is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five games, including an embarrassing outright loss to Jacksonville a few weeks ago. As embarrassing as that defeat to the Jags was, last week’s 41-15 thrashing at the hands of the Colts may have been their nadir. While the Bills still are near the top of my power ratings, I think they’re laying too many points in this Thanksgiving night matchup. The spread should be under a FG, so I think there’s value here on the home dog, who has seen three of its five losses come by six points or fewer. 8* New Orleans |
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11-25-21 | North Texas +14.5 v. Kansas | Top | 59-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
8* North Texas (2:30 ET): 4th ranked Kansas should be considered the favorite here in the ESPN Invitational, which takes place in Kissimmee, FL. The only other ranked team in the field is #10 Alabama. But don’t be surprised if the Jayhawks struggle a bit in this first round matchup with stingy North Texas. The Jayhawks have not played in a week, so there may be some rust. There are also changes to the rotation with Jalen Wilson set to return from a suspension and two players injured. Bottom line: I’m taking the points in this Thanksgiving Day matchup. North Texas is actually 7th in the country in points allowed (52.7 per game). The Mean Green really whipped TX-Arlington in its last game, winning 64-36. It was 26-3 out of the gate and they allowed just 12 points in the first half. Now, an earlier loss to Buffalo and B2B games with 35% shooting is a bit of concern when facing Kansas. But I expect the Mean Green to shoot a little bit better in this one. This is a team that’s gone 6-1 ATS its L7 neutral site games. But it’ll be the North Texas defense that’s the key to this one. I don’t see Kansas scoring 87 points here as they have in each of their first three games. While the margins of victory continue to grow for Bill Self’s team and they are off a 29-point win over Stony Brook, the Jayhawks are just 5-14 ATS their L19 games coming off a SU win by 20 or more points. They were actually trailing Stony Brook with seven minutes to go in the first half. This is Kansas’ toughest opponent since the opener. 8* North Texas |
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11-24-21 | Texas Southern +19.5 v. BYU | Top | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
10* Texas Southern (9:00 ET): BYU is ranked #18, basically on the strength of one win - a shocking 81-49 demolition of then-#12 Oregon. Now that’s an impressive win (especially considering it came in Portland). But the Ducks were overrated going into that game according to my power ratings. Now BYU is too. The Cougars are not #18 in my power ratings, nor are they even in the Top 25. In fact, they barely crack the Top 35. With them laying a big number Wednesday night, it seems like an opportune time to fade. Texas Southern is the opponent. While winless at 0-5 SU, the Tigers are 4-1 against the spread. All five games have been on the road, just like this one and next seven they’ll play! That is an insane start to the season. But so far the Tigers have been game. Four of the losses have been by single digits and they’ve played at multiple big-time schools, including NC State, Washington & St. Mary’s. Critics will point to a 17-point loss at Oregon just because BYU schooled the Ducks, but I think that’s unfair. TX Southern had to go to Eugene to face Oregon, rather than get them at the “neutral setting” of Portland. Remember that this is a team that was in the NCAA Tournament a year ago and won a “First Four” game. They led NC State at halftime on Sunday. This is a program on a 44-23 ATS run when facing teams with a winning record. BYU heads to Utah this weekend, so this very much has the makings of a “lookahead” spot for them. Prior to beating Oregon, the Cougars first two wins were both by 10 points or less. My number say this spread should be several points lower. 10* Texas Southern |
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11-24-21 | Hawks -4 v. Spurs | Top | 124-106 | Win | 100 | 23 h 4 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:30 ET): Here’s a shocking stat for you: the Hawks are 0-9 ATS on the road. No other team in the NBA is either perfect or winless against the spread, at home or on the road. It’s just the Hawks. They are also 1-8 SU away from home, so things have not been going well - at all - on their travels. However, a recently completed five-game home stand saw Atlanta go 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS. The lone game they didn’t cover was Monday vs. OKC when they were 13-point favorites and won by only 12. I think it’s got to be time for the Hawks to snap this shocking ATS losing skid on the road. They’ll be visiting a San Antonio team that simply isn’t very good this year. I’ve got the Spurs rated 25th in my personal power ratings, probably the lowest they’ve ever been in the Greg Popovich era. Only three other teams from the West are rated lower - New Orleans, OKC & Houston. The Spurs have lost five straight, three of those coming by double digits. It was a game effort against red-hot Phoenix on Monday, but they still came up a few points short in that one. That Suns-Spurs game wasn’t even close entering the 4Q as SA was behind by 15. They shot just 5 of 20 from three-point range. Now the Spurs do score a lot more at home. But Atlanta is averaging 117.4 PPG during its current win streak while San Antonio has averaged only 101.6 PPG during its losing streak. These are two clubs going in opposite directions right now and I expect the Hawks to pick up their first ATS road win of 2021-22. Lay the points. 10* Atlanta |
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11-24-21 | Hornets v. Magic +8 | Top | 106-99 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
9* Orlando (7:05 ET): I am fully aware just how poorly the Magic played their last time out. It was a humbling 123-92 defeat at the hands of the Bucks and it was honestly even worse than that final score suggests. Orlando not only faced a franchise record 41-point deficit at halftime, but at one point trailed by as many as 51! How then could I possibly turn around and endorse them here? Well, the Magic won’t be facing the reigning NBA Champs tonight. Instead, they are hosting an overrated Charlotte side. The Hornets are 5th in the East with an 11-8 SU record, but still have a negative point differential on the season. They’ve gotten hot recently, winning six of seven while also going 6-1 ATS. But they were underdogs in virtually every one of the games. In fact, the one time they were favored, it was a single point. This game will mark just the fourth time all season that Charlotte has been favored and the first by more than five points. It must be noted that when they were five-point favorites vs. Cleveland earlier this month, the Hornets lost outright. Orlando is only 1-6 SU/ATS at the Amway Center thus far, but it’s been 10 days since they last played a home game. They are coming off a brutal road trip that saw them face the Hawks, Knicks, Nets and then the Bucks twice. I think that after suffering such an embarrassing defeat on Monday, the Magic are going to come out pretty motivated here. Charlotte not only has a losing road record, but they are 29th in the league in scoring defense. Take the points. 9* Orlando |
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11-23-21 | Gonzaga v. UCLA +6.5 | Top | 83-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* UCLA (10:00 ET): Who could forget the game these teams played last April in Indianapolis? Jalen Suggs’ 37-foot buzzer beater in overtime gave Gonzaga a 93-90 victory and sent them to the National Championship Game against Baylor. Of course, things did not end well for the Zags. They lost to Baylor, ending what had been a perfect season to that point. Now UCLA gets its chance for revenge. The Bruins were not just an 11-seed in last season’s tournament, but also relegated to the “First Four.” Now they are ranked as the #2 team in the entire country. Gonzaga is #1, but is not as strong as the team that won its first 31 games last year. Suggs is gone as are two other starters from the 31-1 team. Mark Few has reloaded in Spokane, but this is a tricky early season matchup. I know that the Zags had no problem winning last night as they crushed Central Michigan 107-54 as 34-point favorites. That was their fifth straight double digit win to open the season and four of those have come by 27 or more points. The one exception was when Zags defeated Texas (who is currently #8 in the poll) by 12. Still, I think this is too many points to lay in such a high-profile encounter that’s taking place in a neutral setting (Las Vegas). As this is a tournament, UCLA also played yesterday. They defeated Bellarmine 75-62, but did not cover the 22.5-point spread. While that obviously wasn’t as impressive as the Zags’ win, the Bruins got to play their game earlier in the day, so they have had a few extra hours of rest compared to Gonzaga. All but one of UCLA’s wins this season (a 9-point win over Villanova) have been by double digits so far. As the revenge-minded squad, they come in more motivated and with them also having more returning experience from last season, I’ll gladly take the points. 8* UCLA |
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11-23-21 | Western Michigan -3 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 42-21 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (7:00 ET): It speaks volumes that the last place team in the MAC West (Western Michigan) is favored here (on the road, no less!) against the team that has already sewn up the division title, that being Northern Illinois. Perhaps part of that is NIU potentially looking forward to next week’s MAC Championship Game against whomever wins the East Division (will be Miami or Kent State). But the reality of the matter is that the Huskies aren’t a very good team. Despite being division champs - and an 8-3 overall SU record - they have a -20 point differential for the season! Now part of that is due to the non-conference slate, which included a 63-10 loss to Michigan. But even still, the Huskies’ YTD point differential in MAC games is only +20. This despite having a 6-1 conference record! Not only do they have four wins by two points or less this season, including THREE one-point victories, but last week’s game vs. Buffalo was an OT affair. Northern Illinois’ largest win of the season over an FBS foe was eight points against lowly Bowling Green. They have arguably been the “luckiest” team in all of College Football in 2021. As for Western Michigan, they suffered a one-point LOSS to rival Eastern Michigan last week. That was yet another game where the Broncos came in as road favorites. I faded them, thinking the number was too high, which it clearly was. But the Broncos did end up with an edge in total yards (485-422) and were up 21-9 in the third quarter. This is a team that earlier in the year went to Pitt and won 44-41! Unlike Northern Illinois, WMU has a positive point differential this season. Though already bowl eligible, getting a 7th win would be huge for the Broncos as it would probably ensure they actually go to a bowl game (in the past, there have been some six-win MAC teams not selected by a bowl). Before the season, many thought WMU would win the MAC West and NIU (winless in 2020) would finish last! Lay the points. 8* Western Michigan |
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11-22-21 | Arkansas v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (9:30 ET): Arkansas is yet another team that my own personal power ratings do not believe should be in the Top 25. The Razorbacks are 3-0, so give them credit for that, but they are 1-2 ATS with the lone cover coming last time out in a 93-80 win over Northern Iowa. Even that game, which took place last Wednesday, was close as the teams exchanged the lead 18 times and the Hogs were only up one (79-78) with under three minutes remaining. I think it’s a good idea to take the points here. A major area of concern right now for Arkansas is that they are one of the worst teams in the country at defending the three-point line. They let Northern Iowa sink 17 of 37 attempts, so the first three opponents are hitting 43.4% from behind the arc. Kansas State happens to be shooting a very similar percentage from three-point range as the Wildcats are 2-0, having beaten Florida A&M and Nebraska-Omaha. Despite winning those games by a combined 25 points, KSU is 0-2 ATS. But here, we obviously don’t need to worry about laying points. Though this is technically a neutral site game in Kansas City, part of the Hall of Fame Classic, I think there’s a bit of an edge towards Kansas State in terms of the venue. There is also a lot of turnover on the Arkansas roster compared to last season. I don’t think they can count on Miami FL transfer Chris Lykes scoring 26 points (a career-high) again, like he did vs. Northern Iowa. Kansas State is 5-2 ATS its last seven games as a neutral site underdog. 10* Kansas State |
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11-22-21 | Ohio State v. Seton Hall -1 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (6:00 ET): Seton Hall has a shot at knocking off the Big 10’s two “blueblood” programs in consecutive games. I really like their chances of accomplishing this feat. Going into last Tuesday’s game at Michigan, I made it pretty clear that I consider the Pirates to be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. I had them plus the points (+8) on the road against the Wolverines and sure enough, they delivered the outright upset, winning 67-65. My power rankings say Seton Hall is a Top 10 team in the country right now, so I will again take them here (laying a short number) vs. Ohio State. Those same power rankings are NOT as bullish on Ohio State. Therefore, it was NOT a shock to see the Buckeyes go down 71-65 at Xavier last Thursday. Currently ranked #19 in the polls, OSU is likely to drop out when the new rankings are released. Again, my power ratings didn’t even consider them a Top 25 team in the first place. This is now a team that’s 1-3 ATS on the year and barely escaped Akron in the season opener, winning by just one point. Don’t forget that the Buckeyes were eliminated in the Opening Round of the NCAA Tournament last March, by 15-seed Oral Roberts. Due to the pandemic, OSU had not played a “true” road game in front of fans since the 2019-2020 season. It was not a good sign that they never led against Xavier. This game is being played in Fort Meyers, FL, part of a tournament, and I think it’s clear who the better team is at this point. Seton Hall is deep (plays 10 guys) and believes it is one of the best teams in the country. With them holding their first three opponents to 31.4% shooting, including 13.3% (!) from three-point range, I strongly believe in them as well. 8* Seton Hall |
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11-21-21 | Arizona +4 v. Michigan | Top | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Arizona (9:30 ET): While Arizona turned out NOT to be a winning bet Friday night (they won, but failed to cover), my point that they are one of the most underrated teams in the country right now still stands. They are now 4-0 after beating Wichita State in overtime on Friday. In the second half of that game, it seemed like they were headed for a fourth straight cover (up double digits) but wilted down the stretch and allowed the Shockers to tie them and force OT. The Wildcats then scored the first nine points of the extra session before again allowing their opponents to get close. Michigan rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season, beating UNLV late Saturday night 74-61 as 12-point favorites. But remember I successfully faded the Wolverines earlier in the week, when they lost outright (as eight-point favorites) to Seton Hall. Right now, I’d say Seton Hall and Arizona are my two most underrated teams in the country, so it’s some tough early scheduling for the Maize and Blue. I think that the #4 team in the country is about to suffer its second loss of the season. Arizona came into the Wichita State game ranked #1 in the country in effective field goal % defense and two-point FG% allowed. Sure enough, the Shockers did not shoot the ball well at all (33.8% overall, including 15 of 41 on 2-pt attempts!). But the problem is the Wildcats struggled from three-point range, sinking only 5 of 27 attempts from beyond the arc. I look for a team that’s scored 82 or more in every game to be better from distance tonight and upset the favored Wolverines. Take the points. 10* Arizona |
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11-21-21 | Cardinals v. Seahawks +2 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 30 m | Show |
9* Seattle (4:25 ET): The return of Russell Wilson last week produced a shocking result as the Seahawks were shut out for the 1st time since 2011, which predates Wilson’s tenure here in the Pacific Northwest. The 17-0 loss to the Packers leaves Seattle at 3-6 SU and in last place in the NFC West. This week feels like a “watershed” game for the team as another loss would essentially sink their season. But a win would certainly keep them viable in the playoff hunt. Given that the Seahawks are 15-7 ATS as a home dog under HC Pete Carroll, including 6-3 with Wilson as the starter, I’m taking the points here. Now I know that Arizona is 5-0 SU/ATS on the road this season and covered the spread in five of their last six visits to Seattle. But this week marks the first time since 2011 (again the year before Wilson arrived) that the Cardinals are favored here. The big story here is whether or not QB Kyler Murray (game-time decision) will play. Murray has missed the L2 games and backup Colt McCoy (will start if Murray can’t go) got injured last week in a 34-10 loss to Carolina. We know that WR DeAndre Hopkins is out Sunday. So the bottom line is that Arizona’s offense will NOT be at full strength, no matter what. Whether or not Murray ends up playing here is irrelevant to the selection. Coming back from a sprained ankle will limit his mobility, if he does play. If Murray is out, then I certainly don’t fear a banged up McCoy, who threw for only 107 yards last week. Given that Arizona’s bye is next week, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them hold Murray out. While Seattle was blanked last week, note that Wilson threw TWO interceptions in the end zone. He’s had a week to “shake off” the rust and I expect a big game from the Seahawks QB in this one. The Seahawks have three losses by a total of nine points, so their record could be much better. The Cardinals have dropped two of three following a 7-0 SU start. I can’t see them winning all their road games this season. 9* Seattle |
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11-21-21 | Packers v. Vikings +1.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 39 h 44 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings finally stepped up and delivered a big-time performance last week, going to LA and defeating the Chargers 27-20 as three-point underdogs. Now 4-5 SU on the year, they seek to win B2B games for just the second time. Eight of their nine games have been decided by one score, including three in overtime and four by three points or less. So their won-loss record could easily be better. They have a positive point differential (+10) for the season. I believe this team is MUCH better than its record and is set to pull an “upset” over the division leading Packers on Sunday. Green Bay did it again last week, covering the spread for a ninth consecutive game as they defeated Seattle 17-0. The Packers’ current 9-0 ATS win streak is a franchise record and the third longest in history! Last week marked the return of Aaron Rodgers after he missed the loss to the Chiefs (GB’s only SU loss in the L9 games), but the former MVP has barely had any practice time the L2 weeks, not just because of COVID, but also due to a toe injury. Not that Rodgers needs a ton of practice time at this stage of his career, but here he’s facing a defense that is traditionally very good at home under Mike Zimmer. Minnesota allows 28.6 PPG on the road. But at home, they allow just 17.0 PPG. That’s a big difference. This week, it looks like they might get back both S Harrison Smith and CB Patrick Peterson, which would bring their secondary back to full health. Rodgers may be the QB that gets all the headlines in this matchup, but the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins is the one who actually leads the NFL in QB-INT ratio. Minnesota should probably be coming into this game on a five-game win streak (Dallas & Baltimore losses were both BRUTAL). This is a HUGE game for the Vikings to stay in the NFC North race and they are 19-6-1 ATS L26 as home dogs. 10* Minnesota |
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11-21-21 | 49ers v. Jaguars +6.5 | Top | 30-10 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While the Jaguars are far from my favorite team to endorse, I think this is a GREAT spot to fade the 49ers, who are on a short week and laying a big number on the road after upsetting the Rams Monday night. I took San Francisco on MNF and even I was shocked by the ease with which they won. It was 31-10, the team’s first home win in MORE THAN A YEAR. But despite the lopsided nature of the final score, yardage was pretty even - both for the game and on a per play basis. The big key was the Niners forcing two turnovers, one of which was a “pick six.” Really, you could make the case the Niners forced FOUR turnovers. There were two more Rams drives which ended inside the SF 20-yard line and did not result in any points. One saw the Rams attempt a fake field goal, which did not work. Another time they simply turned it over on downs. What I’m saying here is that we should temper our enthusiasm on the Niners somewhat. This is a team that had previously dropped five of six with the lone win coming against Chicago. Something else worth noting is just how poor the Niners have been as a favorite under Kyle Shanahan, going just 9-21-2 ATS. That includes 2-10 ATS L12 with NINE outright losses. This is the most points they’ve had to lay on the road this season. Jacksonville’s defense has only given up 29 points (total) the L2 games as they have covered the spread against both Buffalo and Indianapolis, two good teams. In fact, the Jaguars stunned the Bills two weeks ago here at home, 9-6 as two-touchdown underdogs. I mentioned earlier that SF just ended a long losing streak at home. Well, now the Jags look to end a 13-game losing streak vs. the NFC, which dates back three seasons. Not sure if they can end it, but take the points as I expect this to be a close game throughout. The 49ers are not as good as they “looked” Monday night. 8* Jacksonville |
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11-21-21 | Saints v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 29-40 | Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): I think the Eagles have proven themselves to be better than their 4-6 SU record. Not only do they sport a positive point differential on the season (+26) but they’ve also outgained opponents on a per play basis. Last week saw the Eagles go to Denver and win very convincingly, 30-13 (line closed as a pick ‘em). But one thing that the team has failed to do this year is win at home! They are 0-4 SU at Lincoln Financial Field. The only other teams not to win a home game in 2021 are the Lions (obviously) and the odious Falcons. I think it’s about time Philly gets 1st year HC Nick Sirianni a win. Lay the short number here. New Orleans is a team that impressed me early on this season, but they seem to be on a downward trajectory. They are 0-2 SU in November with both losses coming by two points. But don’t let last week’s 23-21 score against Tennessee fool you. It was a late TD that got them the cover. A failed two-point try ensured there would be no OT. While only losing by two points to the hottest team in the league may not sound all that bad to you, what about losing at home to Atlanta? That’s what the Saints did two weeks ago. I understand that the Saints have not lost three in a row since they opened 2016 at 0-3, but this is a team now being quarterbacked by backup Trevor Siemian. The strength of the Saints now resides on the defensive side of the ball, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. But the Eagles lead the NFL in rush yards the L3 weeks and gashed the Saints for 246 yards in an 24-21 upset last season. That was the first career start for QB Jalen Hurts. Miles Sanders is set to return this week for the Eagles, making their rushing attack all the more formidable. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-20-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech +10.5 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 44 m | Show |
8* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): Maybe I’ve underrated Oklahoma State all season long? The Cowboys are up to #9 in the country in the latest CFP rankings. They’re climbing in my own power ratings as well. After last week’s 63-17 dismantling of TCU (a bad call by me), the Pokes are also the #9 team in the country by my estimation. But covering eight consecutive games is pretty ridiculous. With Bedlam (Oklahoma game) on deck, I (again) think it’s a good time to fade Mike Gundy’s team. This time I’ll be right. For the second straight week, OSU faces a team fresh off an upset. This week it’s Texas Tech, who last week downed Iowa State 41-38 here in Lubbock, as a 12.5-point underdog. That win made the Red Raiders bowl eligible (first time since ‘15) as they continue to play for an interim HC (Sonny Combie) following the surprising dismissal of Matt Wells last month. A permanent successor, Baylor associate HC Joey McGuire, has already been hired but will not take over the reins until after the season. Combie got his first win in the most dramatic way possible, on a 62-yard field goal as time expired. It was the second upset for Texas Tech in Big 12 play (also won at West Virginia). Keep an eye on QB Donovan Smith, who made his 1st career start against Iowa State and threw for 322 yards and three touchdowns. The Red Raiders are 6-2-2 ATS their L10 times as an underdog here in Lubbock and they’ve covered five straight meetings, all as underdogs, against Oklahoma State. Twice they pulled the outright upset. 8* Texas Tech. |
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11-20-21 | Michigan v. Maryland +15.5 | Top | 59-18 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 14 m | Show |
10* Maryland (3:30 ET): Michigan is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS after getting by Penn State last week. That win kept the Wolverines at #6 in the rankings, ahead of next week’s showdown with #4 Ohio State. If the Buckeyes defeat #7 Michigan State on Saturday and Michigan wins here, then that would set up a “winner take all” showdown in the Big Ten East next week. I know that Maryland, Michigan’s opponent this week, has had its fair share of problems. But this is an opportune time to play against the Wolverines, off the big win last week and with the rivalry game looming next week. Take the points. I know I may be a little bit biased (had Maryland) but the Terps probably deserved a better fate than losing by 19 last week at Michigan State. Total yardage was fairly even in that contest, but there were four Maryland drives that ended inside the Spartans’ 40-yard line that resulted in a combined zero points! That’s brutal. QB Tagovailoa (Tua’s younger brother) threw for 300+ yards for the sixth time this season, which is not only the most for any Big 10 QB in 2021 but also a school record. Maryland has now failed to cover in any of its last six games, but should remain motivated as it needs one more win to become bowl eligible. I actually believe that Michigan does deserve to be ranked ahead of Michigan State despite the head to head loss. However, the Wolverines have had some close calls this season, winning three Big 10 games by seven points or less. I think this could be yet another close one as the Wolverines’ defense hasn’t been nearly as stout on the road as it has been in Ann Arbor. One of Michigan’s top two running backs, Blake Corum, is likely to miss this game as well. It’s a classic “sandwich” spot for the favorite whose previous four road games have all had a line of four points or less. 10* Maryland |
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11-20-21 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -19 | Top | 7-56 | Win | 100 | 39 h 45 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (12:00 ET): At the risk of sounding biased, there is simply no way that anyone can convince me that Michigan State is the 7th best team in the country. Congrats to HC Mel Tucker for getting a big extension based off his Spartans being 9-1 SU and still alive for a Big 10 Championship and the College Football Playoff. But this is a team that SHOULD have lost to Michigan a few weeks ago and also has two other narrow wins against Nebraska (OT) and Indiana. Even last week’s 40-21 win over Maryland comes with an “asterisk” as Sparty was only +34 in total yards. It’s time that MSU “meets its maker” this week and that maker is #4 Ohio State. The Buckeyes, unlike Michigan State, are a legit playoff team in my eyes. Since losing to #3 Oregon early in the season, OSU has rolled through the Big 10 (as per usual) winning the seven games by an average of 27.9 points. If that’s not enough, just last week the Buckeyes slaughtered the same Purdue team (59-31) that handed Michigan State its only loss. Because this is a battle of Top 7 teams, this is a rare instance where the public figures to be taking the points. Early reports are that the public is “all over” the double digit dog in this one and I think that’s a mistake. Right off the bat, it speaks volumes that Ohio State is favored by this many points. My own power ratings confirm the line as being accurate, if not a bit low. I have the Buckeyes now rated as the #2 team in the country, only behind Georgia, so this is their chance to make a statement in front of a big TV audience. Consider that this is just the second time in history that a matchup of Top 7 teams has a spread of 19 points or more. That was in 2013 and the favorite (Florida State) won 41-14 (over Miami). Michigan State has an awful pass defense that will be exploited by Buckeyes’ QB Stroud and the #1 scoring offense in the country. OSU has won each of the last four matchups by 20 points or more. 8* Ohio State |
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11-19-21 | Wichita State v. Arizona -8 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): A pair of 3-0 teams meet tonight in Vegas with Wichita State taking on Arizona. The underdog Shockers have done a good job defensively in the early going, giving up just 55.3 points per contest. However, two of their wins (Jacksonville State, South Alabama) have been by six points or less, so they’re struggling to score. Even in their biggest win to date, 65-51 over Tarleton State on Tuesday, they weren’t exactly “efficient” on offense. That’s a problem when facing Arizona. The Wildcats come in averaging 94 PPG and have scored 81 or more in every game. Their wins have come against Northern Arizona, UTRGV and North Dakota State. The closest any of those three opponents came was within 29 points. So it’s been a very impressive start in Tucson and my power ratings are INCREDIBLY high on them. And that’s for good reason. Right now, they rank 1st in the entire NCAA in effective field goal percentage allowed and two-point FG% allowed. I know that Wichita State is likely to get back Tyson Etienne, one of its best players, who missed the Tarleton State game. But with Etienne in the lineup the team struggled somewhat in the first two games. I just don’t see Wichita State having the requisite amount of offense to “hang” here with Arizona, who has been just incredible at the defensive end as well. I know that earlier in the week I said that Seton Hall might be the most underrated team in the country right now, but Arizona might be even more underrated! 8* Arizona |
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11-19-21 | Memphis +9.5 v. Houston | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:00 ET): Memphis is a team that still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. At 5-5 SU, the Tigers have two games left, this one and next week at home vs. Tulane. They’ll be favored in next week’s game, but why leave it to chance? The Tigers were “oh, so close” to their sixth win last week, but lost in OT, 30-29 to East Carolina as their two-point conversion attempt (to win the game) failed. While they’ve now lost five of their last seven, four of those defeats have been by six points or less and remember they did beat SMU two weeks ago. I’m taking the points Friday night. Houston was the first team to hand SMU a loss this season. That came at the end of October and the Cougars have kept on rolling here in November. Road wins over USF (54-42) and Temple (37-8) have the Cougs now ranked in the Top 25 (#24) and on a nine-game win streak. Their lone loss of the season came in the season opener to Texas Tech. I will say that the schedule has been somewhat fortuitous as UH avoids Cincinnati in the regular season. But last week’s win did set up a matchup with the #5 ranked Bearcats in the American Conference Championship Game, which takes place two weeks from now. With their place in the AAC Championship all sewn up, might Houston be overlooking Memphis in this spot? That’s certainly a possibility. Before holding a terrible Temple team to just 8 points last week, the Cougars defense had allowed a total of 79 points its previous two games. Memphis, who has won and covered five straight in the series, is capable of putting up a lot of points. They’ve scored 28 or more points in every game but one this season. This will be the first time in 2021 that the Tigers are getting more than 3.5 points from the oddsmakers. Houston is just 3-11 ATS following a SU win of 20+ points. 8* Memphis |
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11-19-21 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia +4.5 | Top | 88-78 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Georgia (9:00 ET): We’ve got a matchup of 2-1 teams from the Peach State on Friday with Georgia hosting Georgia Tech. Of the two records, Georgia Tech’s is more disappointing as the Yellow Jackets have been favored in every game. They lost their season opener, 72-69 to Miami (OH), after missing their last six shots of the game. Being upset early in the season is nothing new for Ga Tech as they’ve previously gone down to the likes of Grambling, Wofford and Gardner-Webb in recent years. Since then, it’s been a pair of blowout victories for the Yellow Jackets, 77-52 over Stetson and 75-66 over Lamar. But take note it was a four-point game with Lamar in the 2H on Monday. Though it’s not a long trip to Athens, this will be Ga Tech’s first “true” road game of the season. Georgia’s loss came at Cincinnati, so they’re 2-0 SU at home with the wins coming against Florida International and South Carolina State. It was a 16-point win over SC State on Tuesday, though that wasn’t enough to cover the spread (-21.5). I think that Georgia Tech is still getting too much “residual credit” for winning the ACC Tournament last season. Multiple players from that team departed and this group is simply not as strong, especially with two players listed as questionable for tonight. Georgia has captured each of the L5 meetings between the teams (did not play last season) and I like them as a home dog here as my power ratings give the Yellow Jackets no real edge after factoring in the home court advantage. Take the points. 10* Georgia |
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11-19-21 | Southern Miss +16 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 35-19 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
10* Southern Miss (8:00 ET): The Golden Eagles came through for me last Saturday, easily covering as 32.5 point underdogs against undefeated UTSA. In fact, they actually LED OUTRIGHT for most of the third quarter. Now we shouldn’t lose sight of “the plot,” which is that Southern Miss is pretty clearly a bad team. They are just 1-9 SU on the season and had failed to cover seven straight games going into last week. But they showed me that they are still willing to compete and getting double digits against a 3-7 La Tech team - that has nothing left to play for - is an attractive option. Take the points. Now La Tech was a SU winner last week, 42-32 against Charlotte as 6.5-point favorites. But it was the week before, when they lost 52-38 to UAB, that the Bulldogs saw their faint chances of bowl eligibility go out the window. They’d lost five in a row before beating Charlotte with three of those losses coming by at least 14 points. Believe it or not, La Tech has been favored in half of its games so far. But never by THIS MUCH, not even when they hosted a FCS opponent (SE Louisiana) early in the season. They only won that game by three points and their average MOV when favored this season is just +0.2 PPG. This C-USA rivalry has a history of upset, at least recently, with the dog going 5-0-1 ATS the L6 meetings including five outright upsets! Last week saw USM head coach Will Hall dip into his “bag of tricks” and start Frank Gore Jr at QB. Gore is a running back and not even listed on the QB depth chart. If Hall tries that again, Louisiana Tech will obviously not be caught as off-guard as UTSA was. But the Golden Eagles may have found something with Gore under center. The La Tech defense gave up 548 yards last week to Charlotte. The Bulldogs’ three wins this year have been by a TOTAL of 20 points. They shouldn’t be favored by this many points against ANYBODY. 10* Southern |
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11-18-21 | Northern Illinois +14 v. Missouri | Top | 37-54 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (8:00 ET): I’m a bit shocked by this pointspread as Missouri is coming off a terrible 80-66 loss (as 11-point favorites) to UMKC. The Tigers trailed by as many as 22 points in that game and only briefly led at the outset. They shot a woeful 4 for 14 from “downtown” (three-point range), missed 10 of 24 free throws and turned the ball over 18 times. Obviously, that loss should have Mizzou motivated coming into tonight, but covering the double digit spread is something I just do not see happening. Northern Illinois has already pulled one upset this season. In their season opener, they went across the country to Washington and won 71-64 as a 20-point underdog. Predictably, NIU came back “down to Earth” in the next game when it visited Indiana and lost 85-49. The Huskies couldn’t “hit water from a boat” in that one, making just 30.4% of their field goal attempts, including just 2 of 11 from three-point range. So they too should be in line for an improved effort tonight. Missouri wasn’t all that impressive in its opening game when it defeated Central Michigan 78-68 as a 16-point favorite. Having already failed twice as DD chalk, it’s difficult for me to understand why the oddsmakers have the Tigers laying so many points yet again. Especially with two players potentially out, one of them Jarron Coleman, who is a double digit scorer. Northern Illinois has done a solid job at getting to the free throw line thus far, averaging 26 attempts per game. Mizzou has now failed to cover six straight games, going back to last season. 10* Northern Illinois |
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11-18-21 | St Bonaventure v. Boise State +6.5 | Top | 67-61 | Win | 100 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
8* Boise State (2:00 ET): The analysis for this matchup, which is a neutral site game in Charleston, SC, should sound “eerily familiar” to last night’s play on George Mason against Maryland. Once again, we’ve got a ranked team that has been less than stellar in the opening week of the season and my power ratings aren’t as high on them as the pollsters are. Yesterday, I talked about how Maryland had been “playing with fire” in its first few games, falling behind early only to pull out the win in the second half. Well, they lost. Don’t be surprised if the same thing happens to St. Bonaventure on Thursday. The 22nd ranked Bonnies are 2-0, but haven’t been all that impressive in either game. Don’t be fooled by the final score of that opening game with Siena. St. Bonaventure trailed for most of the first half and was only up by four going into the break. Things were even “scarier” Sunday against Canisius as the Bonnies were down nine with just 14 minutes left. Down the stretch, they turned things on defensively and were able to pull off a 69-60 win. But they did not come close to covering as they were 20.5-point favorites. Heading into their first game away from home, the Bonnies are outside the top 35 in my power ratings (same as Maryland yday). Boise State is coming off a 58-50 loss at UC Irvine. As you can tell from that score, the Broncos really struggled to make shots in that one, finishing at just 32.2% overall including a dreadful 3 of 22 from three-point range. At the same time, they allowed the Anteaters to make six of their nine 3PA. I anticipate the Broncos will shoot much better in this game, perhaps similar to the 51.6 FG% we saw in the opener vs. Utah Valley State. St. Bonaventure could be without A-10 Defensive POY Osun Osunniyi, who injured his back against Canisius. Take the points. 8* Boise State |
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11-17-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock +14.5 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 63-82 | Loss | -107 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
8* Little Rock (10:00 ET): Little Rock will be looking for a perfect 4-0 start to the season tonight when they hit the West Coast to face Loyola Marymount. Obviously, the oddsmakers don’t like the Trojans’ chances here. But this seems like an awfully high number given the respective starts to the season by the two teams involved. Loyola Marymount is only 1-1 SU and lost outright (as 7-point favorites) in their only game against a D-I opponent (the opener vs. Chattanooga). Seems like an opportune time to grab the points. Little Rock’s season began with an outright upset as they went to Carbondale and beat Southern Illinois 69-66 as a 6.5-point dog. Since that time, the Trojans have faced a couple of non-board teams (Champion Christian College and Arkansas Baptist) and blew both opponents out, winning 115-51 and 91-60. Obviously, not a ton can be ascertained from those victories, but the fact Little Rock has already gone on the road and won as an underdog definitely sticks out to me. They should enter tonight’s game as a confident bunch. Not only did Loyola Marymount lose its opener to Chattanooga, but they could barely get by a non-board team (Arizona Christian) on Saturday, winning only 74-67. So you’ve got a Little Rock team that’s already recorded one upset on the road and then blown out two non-board teams taking on a LMU team that has already lost once outright as a home favorite and could barely get by a non-board team. Plus we’re getting double digits here. Thank you very much! 8* Little Rock |
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11-17-21 | Detroit v. Mississippi State -15.5 | Top | 64-77 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (8:00 ET): The oddsmakers seem to be a “step slow” in accounting for the respective starts of the two teams here. Mississippi State is 2-0 SU/ATS with blowout wins over North Alabama (75-49) and Montana (86-49). The Bulldogs were DD favorites in both games and obviously had little difficulty covering the spread. Per my own power ratings, this number should be north of -20 as MSU welcomes a struggling Detroit side to Starkville. Lay the points. Detroit’s early season schedule is nothing short of insane. They will play their first nine games on the road and this trip takes them all over the country and to the Bahamas. So far the Titans have lost at Wyoming (85-47) and Toledo (81-73). Their best player is Antoine Davis, the coach’s son, but despite a combined 37 points in the first two games he’s only shooting 35.9% overall including 3 of 14 from three-point range. Defensively, this team obviously has its issues having given up an average of 83 PPG so far. Making matters worse for the Titans here is that it’s looking probable that Miss State will have Rocket Watts in the lineup tonight. A transfer from Michigan State, Watts had hip surgery in June and has missed the first two games. The Bulldogs certainly didn’t need him as they won by a combined 63 points and this figures to be a third straight blowout win for them as they’ve got six players averaging at least nine points per game. They are 15th in the country in 3-point shooting (46.3%) and led 42-16 at halftime in their last game. 10* Mississippi State |
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11-17-21 | Cavs +11 v. Nets | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): This spread is too high, even before taking into account the fact that Brooklyn is in the second game of a back to back. The Nets were hammered here at home last night by Golden State in a 117-99 loss that prompted HC Steve Nash to remark that his team doesn’t belong in the same conversation as some of the top teams in this league. The Nets are 10-5 SU overall, but 0-4 against the Warriors, Heat, Bulls and Bucks. Kevin Durant was held to a season-low 19 points Tuesday night and was clearly outplayed by Steph Curry. While it’s a drop in class tonight hosting Cleveland, I’ll be taking the points in this one. The Cavs have definitely been a surprise at the outset of the 2021-22 season. They are 9-6 SU and also tied for the best ATS record in the league at 10-4-1. I did play AGAINST the Monday night, but that was when they were a short home dog against a revenge-minded Boston team. Even that game was close, though I walked away with a winning ticket. Losing standout rookie Evan Mobley to an elbow injury definitely hurts, but this is a team that has yet to be blown out all year. 10* Cleveland |
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11-17-21 | George Mason +11.5 v. Maryland | Top | 71-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
8* George Mason (7:00 ET): I “learned my lesson” with Maryland last week when I made the mistake of laying the points with them against George Washington. They couldn’t come close to covering the 17-point spread and actually trailed at the half. Falling behind seems to be a problem for the Terrapins as they also trailed Vermont at halftime over the weekend. So while they’re now 3-0 SU and ranked #20 in the country, the Terps sure seem like an overrated side to me. I’ll fade them as DD favorites here on Wednesday. George Mason also comes into this game at 3-0 SU. While they’ve faced lesser competition, the Patriots haven’t had nearly the kind of close calls Maryland has. All three GMU victories thus far have been by at least 21 points and the average margin of victory is 26.7 PPG. They are 3-0 ATS. On Sunday, they held Morgan State to 34% shooting (7 of 24 from 3-pt range) in a dominant 90-53 effort, their biggest win to date. George Mason’s best player is Josh Oduro, who is averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game so far. As a team, the Patriots are shooting 40.5% from three-point range. After trailing at the half in B2B games, Maryland seems ripe to be upset. They’ve yet to win a game by more than 14 points and against Vermont they were down seven in the second half. James Graham III remains suspended for this game. I know GMU is 0-9 SU all-time vs. Maryland, but this year’s team is averaging 83.7 PPG so far (2nd most among A-10 teams) and seems primed for a breakout under 1st year HC Kim English. My own power ratings don’t have Maryland in the Top 35. Take the points. 8* George Mason |
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11-17-21 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 33-27 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): For many years, Northern Illinois was a force in the MAC. But the first two years under HC Thomas Hammock were a real struggle in DeKalb, including a disastrous 0-6 (SU) 2020 season. But the Huskies have rebounded this year to go 7-3 SU and lead the West Division with two weeks to go. This is pretty clearly NOT something that was expected as NIU has been favored in only two games all season and one of those was against FCS Maine! Their last two wins have each been by a single point (30-29 over Ball St and 39-38 over C Mich). I smell an “upset” cooking Weds night. Now judging by the line, a Buffalo win here wouldn't be much of an “upset” at all. In fact, that’s what I’m banking on. After winning the MAC East LY, Buffalo has had a trying 2021 season due to former HC Lance Leipold bolting for Kansas after spring football. But the Bulls were able to get to 4-4 SU before suffering bad losses to Bowling Green (56-44) and Miami (45-18) the L2 weeks. Still, they’ve got a shot at bowl eligibility, but must now win out. The fact UB is averaging 36.4 PPG at home is a promising sign as is their 12-3-1 ATS run when priced as a home underdog. Northern Illinois had beaten Buffalo 12 straight times. But then came last year when the Bulls won in blowout fashion, 49-30 as 13-point favorites. I can’t stress just how lucky NIU has been so far in 2021. They have THREE one-point victories and FOUR by two points or less. Despite the 7-3 SU record, they’ve been outscored and outgained over the course of the season. The one time they were favored in MAC play, the Huskies failed to cover. Buffalo actually has a positive point differential this year. Despite what the WL records may say, this shouldn’t be considered an “upset” when the Bulls win. Take the points. 10* Buffalo |
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11-16-21 | Spurs +6.5 v. Clippers | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-16-21 | 76ers +9 v. Jazz | Top | 85-120 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (10:05 ET): These two teams each finished first in their respective conferences last year in the regular season. But neither got to the NBA Finals. Both were actually ousted in the second round of the playoffs, the Sixers by the Hawks and the Jazz by the Clippers. Fast starts to the 2021-22 campaign had them each at/near the top again, but both have since faded. Philly comes into tonight on a four-game losing streak while Utah has lost four of its last five, including two straight. I think you have to take the points here. Now I’m well aware that the Sixers are without Joel Embiid as well as several other key contributors. They haven’t won since Embiid tested positive for COVID-19. But all four losses have been by nine points or fewer. On Saturday against Indiana, the 76ers got 24 points from Tyrese Maxey and 16-11 (points & rebounds) from Andre Drummond. Scoring wasn’t a problem as the team finished with 113 points. The problem was letting the Pacers shoot a blistering 57.3% from the field. I do not see that happening again tonight. Utah has struggled to score of late, not topping 105 points in three of its last four contests. They were down 22 in the fourth quarter against Miami on Saturday, the second straight game they fell behind by double digits. With this being a national TV game (TNT), the Sixers aren’t going to want to get embarrassed, so look for them to be plenty motivated and keep this game closer than the oddsmakers think. They’ve covered seven of the last eight meetings with Utah. 8* Philadelphia |
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11-16-21 | Seton Hall +8.5 v. Michigan | Top | 67-65 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
8* Seton Hall (9:00 ET): So my own power rankings very much agree that Michigan is a top four team in the country. But those same rankings also LOVE Seton Hall, calling them a Top 10 team as well. So I’m going to go ahead and grab the points here in what is a rematch of the 1989 NCAA Title Game. They’ve only met one time since - eight months later - which was before current Wolverines HC Juwan Howard even showed up to play at his alma mater. Expect a great game here as Michigan should be on “upset alert.” Beating Yale may not seem like a big deal, but the way Seton Hall did it on Sunday was quite impressive. The Pirates crushed the Ivy League favorites, winning 80-44 as 11.5-point chalk. No one played more than 22 minutes as the Pirates dominated the glass (53-37 rebounding edge) and held Yale to 24.2% shooting. In both games this season, Seton Hall has held the opponent below 50 points and 30% shooting. This is a deep team that believes in itself. Jared Rhoden said they are “one of the best teams in the country” and I agree! Michigan had a closer than expected win over Buffalo in the season opener, 88-76, just barely missing out on covering the number. Then they routed Prairie View A&M (as expected) 77-49 as 23.5-point favorites. That game was played in D.C. over the weekend. While I respect the Wolverines, this is just too many points to be laying against an underrated Seton Hall team that I expect to make a lot of “noise” nationally. The Pirates are 36-16 ATS L52 as a road underdog. 8* Seton Hall |
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11-16-21 | North Carolina v. College of Charleston +13.5 | Top | 94-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* Charleston (8:30 ET): While the pollsters have North Carolina in the Top 20, I do not. The Tar Heels are off to a 2-0 SU start, but they’ve hardly been impressive in doing so, failing to cover the spread against both Loyola MD and Brown. Hubert Davis’ team is not playing good defense as they allowed Brown to score 87 points, including 50 in the first half! That game very much came down to the wire as UNC only led by three points in the final two minutes. Laying this many points with the Tar Heels in the first road game of the season seems like a bad idea. Charleston is 3-0. They too have a win over Loyola MD, theirs coming this past weekend by a score of 79-72. While the Cougars did not cover the spread (they were -9.5), they led the entire game and by as many as 17 points in the first half. This is a veteran team with four seniors accounting for 46% of the offensive production thus far. Through three games, the Cougars are averaging 90.3 PPG (2nd most among CAA teams) and that seems like a problem for a North Carolina team that isn’t playing good defense at the start of the season. The thing is, Charleston hasn’t even shot that well and they are still scoring a lot of points. Each of the last two games, the Cougars have shot worse than 40% from the field. North Carolina has shot better than 50% in each of its two games, yet still is 0-2 ATS. Both teams have first year head coaches. It remains to be seen how the unproven Davis can fill the shoes of the legendary Roy Williams in Chapel Hill. Meanwhile, Charleston hired Pat Kelsey away from Winthrop and he brings an up-tempo attack that should keep the road favorite on its heels. Take the points. 10* Charleston |
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11-16-21 | Western Michigan v. Eastern Michigan +5.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Eastern Michigan (7:30 ET): I’m a little shocked by this spread. I have these teams rated pretty even in my own power rankings, so after factoring in that the game takes place in Ypsilanti, Eastern Michigan ought to be favored. Perhaps the number has something to do with the fact the Eagles were upset here at home last Tuesday, 34-26 by Ohio. They were six-point chalk for that game and it was their biggest loss (in terms of margin) in MAC play this season. The only time in 2021 that EMU has lost by more than one score was when they visited Wisconsin very early in the season. I’m taking the points on Tuesday. Western Michigan has failed to cover the number in four of its last five games, including three straight. But all they cared about last week was getting the victory over Akron. That made the Broncos (now 6-4 SU) bowl eligible. However, it was not an impressive win by any means as they were 26-point faves in Kalamazoo and the final score was only 46-40. Over the last five games, Western Michigan’s defense is giving up an average of 38.4 points per contest. Again, it is somewhat shocking to me to see them favored in the spot, let alone by this many points. The home team is on a 10-5 SU run in this all-Michigan MAC rivalry, although LY saw EMU go to Kalamazoo and win 53-42 as 13.5-point underdogs. The Eagles are now looking to make it three straight upset wins over Western Michigan while also hoping to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home this season. I’ve always been impressed by the job Chris Creighton has done here, turning around what had been a moribund program. Western Michigan has been a major disappointment in 2021, save for the win over Pitt, and gives up too many points to be favored like this on the road. 10* Eastern Michigan |
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11-16-21 | Toledo -7 v. Ohio | Top | 35-23 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): One of the most impressive streaks in ALL of College Football has to be Ohio having not lost a MAC game by more than seven points since 2015! That streak continued last week when the Bobcats went on the road and upset Eastern Michigan, 34-26 as six-point underdogs. It was their second straight upset win as two weeks ago, right here in Peden Stadium, they beat rival Miami 35-33 as a seven-point dog. But despite the B2B upsets, it’s been a tough 1st year under Tim Albin in Athens. Ohio is just 3-7 SU and has no shot at bowl eligibility. Toledo, on the other hand, needs just one more win to become bowl eligible. With lowly Akron on the docket for next week, getting to six wins shouldn’t be a problem. But we’ve seen in the past how 6-win MAC teams have been left out of the postseason. So the Rockets are definitely going to want to handle their business tonight, just as they did last Wednesday when they blew out Bowling Green (on the road) 49-17 as 10.5-point chalk. That was their second straight game scoring 49 points. I laid the points with the Rockets @ BG and will do so again here. While it’s been six years since Ohio last lost a conference game by more than seven points, I think that streak is due to end. This Ohio team is just not as strong as it was for so many years under Frank Solich. These teams don’t play very often, with only two meetings since 2010. The Bobcats won both, so you have to figure Toledo HC Jason Candle will be hungry for his first win against this opponent. The Rockets have covered six of their last seven road games. Four of their five losses this season have been by a combined 11 points, so the SU record could be MUCH better. I like that the offense has gained over 1200 yards the L2 weeks and the defense (which allows just 18.8 PPG on the road) gives up only 3.6 yards per rush attempt. 8* Toledo |
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11-15-21 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:15 ET): The 49ers currently sit at 3-5 SU, but a win here could “save” their season. They face Jacksonville next week, so there is a decent chance the Niners could be back to .500 at the 10-game mark. But first things first, they do NEED to win tonight. They face a Rams team that they’ve defeated four straight times going back to the start of the 2019 season. What’s really interesting about this matchup is that San Francisco is one of three teams (Detroit & Philly are the others) that are still winless at home. The Rams are one of three teams (Cards, Pats) to still be perfect on the road. Both teams are also coming off frustrating losses. The Rams fell to the Titans 28-16 last Sunday night in what was their worst performance of the year. Despite outgaining Tennessee 347-194, LA was never really “in” the game as they trailed 21-3 at halftime. The game really swung on B2B Matt Stafford INT’s in the second quarter, one of which was returned for a TD (the other set Tenn up at the LA 2-yard line). Remember that the Titans didn’t have Derrick Henry. As for San Francisco, turnovers (-3) were also the culprit in their 31-17 loss last week to an Arizona team that was forced to start backup QB Colt McCoy. Even though both teams lost last week, the Rams are clearly the more “popular” side here as they are 8-2 SU. They also just signed Odell Beckham Jr. But Beckham is as overrated as it gets. I respect the Rams, who have been favored in every game this season, but keep in mind that the Niners have been favored in every game but one. They’ve obviously had the Rams’ number and three of the four wins the last two years have been as underdogs. This game is more important to the home team, who should at least be able to keep things within a field goal. 10* San Francisco |
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11-15-21 | Celtics -2 v. Cavs | Top | 98-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 19-point lead here in Cleveland on Saturday night and lost 91-89. It was an absolutely shocking turn of events after the Cavs were held to just nine points in the first quarter and trailed for almost the entirety of the game. Said Cavs coach J.B. Bickerstaff, “There is no basketball reason why we should have won, but there was a collective spirit," "Momentum is a hell of a thing. When you start to ride that wave in either direction, it changes the game.” Now personally, I’m not a big believer in “momentum.” I expect Boston to get its revenge Monday. Cleveland is 9-5 SU and currently fourth in the Eastern Conference standings. Not sure anyone was expecting to see that. The Cavs came into the season with the fifth lowest projected win total in the league. The fact they are a league-best 10-3-1 ATS affirms how they have caught many, including the oddsmakers, by surprise. But at some point you have to expect this run will subside. The Cavs have been rather fortunate to win four games by three points or less this month. I still have them 22nd in the power rankings and remain unsold if they’ll even finish with a .500 record. Cleveland is also missing some players, such as Lauri Markkanen, Lamar Stevens, Collin Sexton and Kevin Love. All of those players were out Saturday, making the 19-point rally seem all the more improbable. You’ve got to believe that Boston will shoot better than it did on Friday. I’ve still got them rated as the better team here - comfortably so. That means I’ve got no issue laying a short number in a revenge spot. They were up 19 on this team 48 hours ago. I’ve got all the confidence in the world that they’ll win here. 10* Boston |
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11-15-21 | Penn State -3.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 56-81 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 22 m | Show |
10* Penn State (7:00 ET): I was a little surprised to see this line open up so low. I know that Penn State is not exactly the most formidable Big 10 team, but they are certainly a lot better than UMass at this stage of the game. While the Nittany Lions failed to cover the spread in their opener, they still won by 16 (as a 17-point favorite). UMass won by a similar score in its season opener (77-60 over MD-Balt County) as a 10-point favorite, but then went to Yale and got crushed by 20 in a game they were favored to win. PSU has a new head coach for 2021-22. His name is Micah Shrewsberry, who was previously an assistant under Brad Stevens at both Butler and with the Celtics in the NBA. Shrewsberry inherits a fairly experienced squad, one that underperformed last year under an interim coach. (Former HC Pat Chambers was forced to resign last October due to conduct. I think the Nittany Lions are going to be an improved squad this year. They shot 51.7% against Youngstown State last Wednesday. UMass lost its leading scorer from LY to the transfer portal. So they figure to take a step back. COVID-19 wreaked havoc on the Minutemen’s schedule in 2020-21, so playing three games in a week is something they haven’t done in quite some time. They were shredded by Yale, giving up 91 points. It won’t be any easier here against an opponent that shot well in its first game and comes in with more rest. Lay the points. 10* Penn State |
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11-14-21 | Chiefs v. Raiders +2.5 | Top | 41-14 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): People keep waiting for Kansas City to get going. But what if it never happens? The Chiefs did win last week, but it was “ugly” (13-7 over the Rodgers-less Packers) and they failed to cover the spread … AGAIN. Over their last 20 games (including playoffs), KC is now a money-burning 4-16 ATS. They are 0-6 ATS this season against teams with winning records. With the Raiders ranked higher in my personal power ratings, I will definitely be taking the points on Sunday Night Football. Las Vegas fell to 5-3 SU on the year with a surprising loss to the Giants last week. Coming out of a bye, that was certainly not the result the Silver and Black was looking for. They did outgain the G-Men 403-247, but were undone by three turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. That “pick-six” was the difference in the game. Last week was the “dreaded” 1 PM ET start for the Raiders, a “West Coast” team. I expect them to play much better this week at home, where they are 3-1 SU. At the start of the season, everyone was rightly pointing to the Chiefs’ defense as the reason for their surprisingly poor record. They allowed 30+ points each of the first five games. But what about the offense? It’s now three straight games (and four of five) that Patrick Mahomes and company have scored 20 points or less. They were actually outgained by Green Bay last Sunday, 301-237. This team is a mess right now. I just think that the wrong team is favored in this AFC West matchup. 8* Las Vegas |
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11-14-21 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-17 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:25 ET): With Russell Wilson back in the fold, I’m looking for the Seahawks to outscore Aaron Rodgers and the Packers this week. Yes, Rodgers did clear protocol on Saturday and thus is able to play here. So these teams should look much different than the last time we saw them. Now for Seattle, they are certainly hoping for a result similar to what they had vs. Jacksonville two weeks ago. With Geno Smith at the helm, they won that game 31-7. Green Bay is looking to bounce back from last week’s ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs where they were forced to start Jordan Love at QB. Though Seattle comes into this game with a 3-5 SU record, they actually have a positive point differential (+12) that’s not far off from Green Bay (who is only +19 despite being 7-2 SU). Once again, I do not feel the Packers are as good as their record shows, something I was adamant about two years ago with them. It’s pretty remarkable that the Pack have covered eight consecutive games, though it should be pointed out that three of their wins were by a field goal or less. The fact that the Seahawks are off a bye and that Rodgers has had no actual practice time this week is a huge advantage for the road dog this week. I firmly believe that GB’s ATS win streak - which is not only the franchise’s longest in the Super Bowl era, but also tied for the longest in the entire NFL the L3 seasons - is due to end. Wilson has thrived as a dog, going 24-12-1 ATS and winning half of the games outright. When getting four or more points, he’s 10-1 ATS and has won outright seven times. This game sets up beautifully for Seattle against a GB team that’s due to lose. Take the points. 10* Seattle |
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11-14-21 | Spurs +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-114 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 38 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (3:30 ET): The Spurs are a better team than the Lakers right now, even though they have an inferior WL record. Though 4-8 SU, San Antonio has actually scored more points than what they’ve allowed this season. The Lakers, despite a winning SU record (7-6) can’t say that. They have a -2.3 PPG differential. Something else the Lakers can’t say (right now) is that they have a healthy LeBron James. Friday night saw them lose to the T’wolves by 24 points here at home. San Antonio is also off a loss as they fell to Dallas by a score of 123-109. The loss dropped them to 0-4 SU off a win this season. They’ve also failed to cover the spread each of the last three times they’ve been off a win. But when off a loss, as they are here, the Spurs tend to play better. They’re a 5-0 ATS off their previous five losses and this includes a 136-117 win over OKC earlier this week. The Spurs had 16 fewer field goal attempts than the Mavs on Friday. That kind of discrepancy should not exist in this afternoon’s game. The Lakers dropped to 3-4 SU without James with Friday’s loss to Minnesota. They were outscored 40-12 in a decisive third quarter. This is a situation where it looks like the public is lining up to bet the favorite, but the lack of line movement is notable. San Antonio has been the better of these two teams on a per possession basis this year. The Spurs also have revenge for a four-point loss at home last month. The road team has won outright the L4 times these teams have met. Take the points. 8* San Antonio |
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11-13-21 | Texas +7.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-86 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* Texas (10:30 ET): We’ve got ourselves a top five matchup in College Basketball in the very first week of the season. Gonzaga, whose only loss since the start of last year came in the National Championship Game (to Baylor), will host Texas. The Zags - not surprisingly - entered 2021-22 as the top ranked team in the country yet again. They’ve brought in some exciting newcomers to help fill the void left by a lot of departing talent. But this Texas team is very much “for real” as 1st year HC Chris Beard brought in a ridiculous amount of talent to Austin. I’m taking the points in this one. Texas won its season opener 92-48 over Houston Baptist. That the Longhorns won was obviously not a surprise, but it is impressive that they covered the huge 37.5 point spread. Beard has SEVEN transfers with D-I experience and most came from “name” schools. Beard was obviously very successful at Texas Tech and I expect similar results here at his alma mater. Texas shot 62% from the field in its opening game, including 13 of 22 from three-point range. This figures to be one of the few times they are underdogs in a game this season. Gonzaga led the country in scoring last year and will probably be one of the most prolific scoring teams again in 2021-22. But, it may take time for this team to get on the same page. HC Mark Few missed the opener as he was serving a one-game suspension for DUI. The Zags still won comfortably without their coach - 97-63 over Dixie State - but did not cover the 39.5 point spread. I think there’s a real shot the Bulldogs may LOSE this game (outright!) so taking the points is a “no brainer” to me. Texas is 20-8 ATS its L28 games as a road underdog. 8* Texas |
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11-13-21 | TCU +12.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 17-63 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
8* TCU (8:00 ET): It is my view that Oklahoma State has drastically overachieved here in 2021. But there’s no denying the Pokes looked rather impressive last week in a 24-3 win at Morgantown (West Virginia). They held the Mountaineers not only out of the end zone, but to just 133 yards total! Still though, my power ratings are a little less bullish on them than are the pollsters. The fact they’ve covered the spread in seven consecutive games should tell you that the oddsmakers have also underestimated the Cowboys. But now we get them laying double digits for just the second time in Big 12 action. TCU also was impressive last week in pulling a 30-28 upset of #12 Baylor. It was an emotional win for the Horned Frogs in their first game without long-time HC Gary Patterson. The school’s decision to part ways with Patterson (said to be “mutual”) is still a bit shocking to me, but if last week was any indication, the team seems to be a bit inspired. Making his first career start, TCU QB Chandler Morris threw for 461 yards on a defense that had been fairly stingy for most of this season. TCU joins Oklahoma State as the only teams to defeat Baylor in 2021. Their attention now turns to trying to win two of their final three games (in order to become bowl eligible). The only other time that OSU was asked to lay double digits in a conference game was when they faced Kansas. The Jayhawks are so far below the rest of the Big 12 that they don’t even really “count.” What we do know is that the Cowboys have had numerous come from behind victories this year with the last two weeks marking their only wins by more than 10 points. I’m definitely grabbing the points here as TCU played inspired ball last week and the underdog has covered in each of the previous six TCU-OK State meetings. 8* TCU |
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11-13-21 | Maryland +13 v. Michigan State | Top | 21-40 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
10* Maryland (4:00 ET): Outside of games where I have made a wager, I rarely have a “rooting” interest. But with all due respect to those in East Lansing, I was smirking a bit when Michigan State suffered its first loss of the season last week, 40-29 at Purdue. In no way, shape or form did I believe that the Spartans were actually the third best team in the country. My own power ratings don’t have them in the Top 20. Sparty has caught some fortunate breaks in 2021, specifically the Michigan game, which was one of three wins by five points or fewer this season. With them coming off their 1st loss, I’ll fade. Now Maryland would seem to need all the points they can get. The Terrapins have failed to cover the spread in five straight games and suffered four blowout losses during this stretch. They did defeat Indiana 38-35 as a 3.5-point home favorite two weeks ago. Last week was a 31-14 loss to Penn State in College Park. It should be pointed out that the Terps’ last four losses were all to ranked teams. I obviously realize that MSU is also a “ranked team,” but I also think they are more vulnerable than most recent Maryland opponents. It’s not just that Michigan State is off its first loss, they also have their biggest game of the year (at Ohio State) on deck next week. So it’s a classic sandwich game. Maryland is not ready to “throw in the towel” by any means as they’re still trying to become bowl eligible (need one more win). They’ve got QB Taulia Tagovailoa, who is second in the Big 10 in passing yards and completion percentage. The MSU defense just gave up 536 yards passing last week. Sparty is also 3-11 ATS as a double digit favorite (four outright losses) since 2018. Take the points here. 10* Maryland |
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11-13-21 | Southern Miss +33 v. UTSA | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
9* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): So at 1-8 SU, the Golden Eagles are obviously having a terrible season. Perhaps even more embarrassing is their 1-8 ATS record. The Golden Eagles have now failed to cover seven in a row - also 0-7 SU - since picking up their lone win of the season (37-0 against FCS Grambling). But they did have an early 14-0 lead last week against North Texas. Not covering there was pretty brutal, though I’m saying that as someone who took the points. Could it finally be Southern Miss’ time to cash a ticket this week? This matchup with #23 UTSA reminds me a lot of a winning bet I had last week with Missouri (plus the points) against Georgia. Like Southern Miss here, Mizzou was on a ridiculous ATS losing skid (8 games!) and getting a ton of points (almost 40!). They finally picked up a cover despite losing 43-6. Now Southern Miss isn’t getting quite as many points as Mizzou was. But UTSA also isn’t Georgia. The Roadrunners are undefeated (9-0 SU), but that’s where the comparisons with UGA end. This is very much unprecedented territory for the UTSA program. They are off a big win over what had been a hot UTEP team and have a big home game vs. UAB on deck. The Roadrunners could certainly be excused for “overlooking” Southern Miss. I think they will, at least enough for the underdogs to stay within the number. UTSA has been a covering machine in 2021 (8-1 ATS), but this is obviously the largest spread they’ve faced all season. 9* Southern Miss |
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11-12-21 | Hawks +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-105 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): Well, I guess I’m chasing the Hawks, who are 0-5 ATS in their last five games (also 0-5 SU) and a mind-numbing 0-8 ATS on the road this season. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Conference Finals last season. The road-heavy schedule to start the season seems to have taken a toll, but I remain a believer that the Hawks can bounce back tonight in Denver. Four of the Nuggets’ last six games have been decided by three points or less and they’ve been fortunate to win three of those. Now I took the Hawks plus the points in each of their two previous games. Those plays obviously failed to come through as they lost to Utah and Golden State by a combined 26 points. With the benefit of hindsight, I was probably being a bit stubborn in thinking Atlanta would keep up with the two best teams in the NBA right now. This road trip started with a four-point loss in Phoenix, so the Hawks have had to play four of the West’s top teams. But of the four, Denver might be the weakest. The Nuggets are averaging only 101.8 PPG thus far. They did just win, 101-98 against Indiana, without Nikola Jokic (who was suspended). Jokic will be back tonight, but Michael Porter Jr is expected to miss a third straight game due to a sore back. I don’t think Denver can count on another career-night from Zeke Nnaji, who scored 19 against the Pacers. Atlanta could be getting back both Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter tonight. That would be a boost. But the bottom line is that I just can’t see the Hawks failing to cover ANOTHER road game. Take the points here as Denver has only covered one of the last six times it has been favored. 10* Atlanta |
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11-12-21 | UL - Lafayette -2.5 v. Southern Miss | Top | 66-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): The spread has jumped the fence for this matchup. Louisiana now finds itself favored, on the road, after beating West Florida (non-board team) 81-47 on Tuesday. Southern Miss won in similar fashion against a lackluster opponent (William Carey), 81-67. It’s interesting that the line has flipped, which may have something to do with the fact the Ragin Cajuns are looking to end a four-game losing streak to Southern Miss. I think the line move is justified and will back the visitors in this one. Louisiana never trailed against West Florida as they jumped out to a 17-4 lead after six minutes. The lead grew to as large as 42 in the second half. While it was not a formidable opponent that they were up against, the Ragin Cajuns winning in blowout fashion seems a little more impressive when you consider they made only 8 of 29 three-point attempts and went 5 of 11 from the free throw line. I expect those numbers to go way up tonight. Eight players scored at least seven points, so this is a deep team. Southern Miss also had a big second half lead on Tuesday, but the difference between them and Louisiana is that they could not maintain it. The Golden Eagles are not that deep as five players combined to score all but five of their points in the opener. It was a 30-point night from Tae Hardy, which probably can’t be counted on here. My power rankings call Louisiana the better team here, so this looks to be a simple case of the oddsmakers setting a bad line. Let’s take advantage of that mistake. 8* UL Lafayette |
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11-12-21 | Cincinnati -23 v. South Florida | Top | 45-28 | Loss | -111 | 34 h 0 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (6:00 ET): #5 Cincinnati is very much in play to become the first non P5 school to make the College Football Playoff. Now in order to make the CFP, they obviously need to handle their own business (i.e. win out) and earn some “style points'' along the way. If they do that and (at least) one of the three one-loss teams ahead of them (Alabama, Oregon & Ohio State) loses again, then the Bearcats just might end up in the top four. But after a few close calls (against Navy, Tulane and Tulsa) they could desperately use a “blowout win” in front of a national TV audience here. I believe this Friday’s game against USF (on ESPN2) affords the Bearcats the perfect opportunity to deliver just the kind of win they need. USF is not a good team. The Bulls come into Friday with a 2-7 SU record and that’s after going 1-8 SU last season. Over the last 22 games, they have just ONE win against a FBS opponent and that was Temple back on Oct 23rd. That win also snapped a 13-game losing streak in conference play. Now clearly I’m taking the SU result of this game for granted. It boils down to whether or not Cincy can win by more than three scores. The three top teams that USF has faced thus far - NC State, Florida and SMU - have all beaten the Bulls by 22 or more points. Cincy is obviously the highest ranked USF opponent to date. So, yes, I do believe the Bearcats will win big. I know each of the last three games have been competitive going into the 4Q. I even took Tulane plus the points a few weeks ago. But USF is the weakest opponent that Cincy will have faced in a LONG time. Given the questioning of their current ranking, the Bearcats can ill-afford yet another close call. They are 6-0 ATS their L6 Friday games including a 52-3 win over Temple earlier this season where I laid the points and got the cover. USF just allowed a season-high 54 points last week. 8* Cincinnati |