Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-14-17 | Michigan State v. Duke -2 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Duke (7:00 ET): Unlike football, we don't have to wait for a playoff for #1 vs. #2 in College Hoops as we're getting it here in just the second game of the season! It's Duke vs. Michigan State tonight as part of the "Champion's Classic" in Chicago The top ranked Blue Devils have actually played twice and as you'd expect, they had no difficulty in dispatching of both Utah Valley State and Elon. Michigan State has just one game under its belt and similarly had no problem, even covering a 31-point spread (barely) against North Florida (won 98-66). Sparty does have revenge here for a nine-point loss in Cameron LY (were 13-pt dogs), but the Blue Devils will be too tough yet again. Everyone likes to say how Coach K "does things the right way," but all the young talent he's "renting" for the time being would make even Coach Cal blush. Only one Duke player - Grayson Allen - even played in LY's Michigan State game. The freshman class, led by the superb Marvin Bagley III, will carry this year's team. Thus far, Bagley has been as good as advertised, posting a double-double in each of his first two games. Bagley went for 24-10 Saturday against Utah Valley State (99-69 final), helping Coach K become the first in his profession to 1,000 career wins. Three other freshman also scored in double figures. Incredibly, Duke's first 40 points were all scored by freshman. Four start and expect there to be times when five are on the court together here. By the way, none of this should be viewed as a negative. This team is supremely talented. Michigan State has some key freshman as well and they'll be charged w/ helping Sparty's six-game losing skid to the Blue Devils. That includes a 2015 Final Four loss. One concern I have here for Coach Izzo's team is that they shot only 25% from three-point range in the season opener. They will NOT be able to impose their will here on the inside against a much stronger opponent. Were the spread a bit larger, I'd at least consider the underdog here, but it's basically nil and all we basically need is a straight up win from the favorite. Duke is the better team on paper and I do expect them to win. Consider that Izzo is just 5-14 SU his L19 game when listed as the dog. Look for #1 to beat #2 in this early season showdown. 8* Duke |
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11-13-17 | Lakers v. Suns -2 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): This is hardly a marquee battle in the Western Conference as two teams at the bottom face off. The Lakers, playing their fourth road game in seven days, come in on a three-game losing streak. To avoid a winless trip, they'll have to beat Phoenix, which may actually be easier said than done. That's because Saturday saw the Suns pull a nice upset here at home, 118-110 over Minnesota. Widely projected to be one of the worst teams in the entire league this year, Phoenix started 0-3 and promptly fired HC Earl Watson. They are a far more respectable 5-6 SU under interim Jay Triano and the situation clearly favors them tonight as they're playing a fourth consecutive home game. Thus, I wasn't surprised to see early betting change who's favored here. Both Devin Booker and TJ Warren scored 35 points for the Suns Saturday night as the team shot a blistering 52.5% from the field. Minnesota is a bad defensive team, mind you, but I expect the Lakers' own defensive numbers to start plummeting as well. They come into tonight ranked 6th in defensive efficiency, which downright shocked me. When these teams played back in the second game of the season, it was a 132-130 final w/o overtime. But the Lakers' offense has been a problem recently, failing to even score 100 pts in any of the L3 games, so I seriously doubt they'll match that kind of production. They are near the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency coming into tonight as #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball continues to struggle w/ his shot. Ball almost had a triple double in that first meeting (one assist shy), but finally became the youngest player in league history to record one as he finished w/ 19-13-12 in Saturday's 98-90 loss at Milwaukee. But, as alluded to earlier, his shooting has been way off in the early part of his pro career. The expectation here will be this is a much "easier" game for the Lakers following three in a row against top tier teams from the Eastern Conference. But I still don't like their chances as they're just 1-5 SU on the road overall and getting outscored by 8.5 PPG overall in those contests. Keep in mind Milwaukee was playing in the second night of back to back Saturday and should have been ripe for a letdown, considering they'd just upset San Antonio. The Lakers still failed to take advantage. Meanwhile, the Suns won their last game, despite being in the 2nd game of a B2B themselves (Minnesota had been off for two days). Considering those respective results, you have to like the Suns here in what is a far more favorable situation. 10* Phoenix |
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11-13-17 | La Salle +2.5 v. Pennsylvania | Top | 75-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
8* LaSalle (7:00 ET): Last year, LaSalle and Penn played the final of the Big 5 (Philly schools) matchups. This year, they face one another almost right out of the gate. Both squads have a game under their belt w/ LaSalle winning and Penn losing. LaSalle beat St. Peter's, handily, 61-40 as 9.5-pt home chalk on Saturday. Penn, on the other hand, got off to a disappointing start by losing 80-72 at Fairfield (also on Saturday). As much as the Quakers will be looking to bounce back here, there's another factor at play that I deem more significant and that's the fact the underdog (LaSalle) comes in w/ double revenge. Penn beat them each of the last two seasons, including an upset LY in their own gym. I'll call for the Explorers to turn the table here tough and pull off their own outright victory. Take the points. Since making the NCAA Tournament back in 2013, La Salle has experienced some lean years. Things bottomed out two years ago w/ a 9-22 (SU) campaign, but HC John Giannini got them back to respectability last season w/ a .500 finish that was actually a bit on the disappointing side as they were 11-5 SU at one point before losing 10 of their final 14 games. They were even 5-1 SU in A-10 play at one point. This year's team is being pegged for middle of the road in the conference standings, but who knows as both Dayton and VCU should be "down" in 2017-18, thus leaving the door open. I was impressed by the team's defense in the season opener as they held St. Peter's to 15 of 49 shooting (30.6%!). I'm hoping for something similar here as LY, they allowed Penn to shoot 47.5% in a game the Explorers probably should have won. The Ivy League contingent shot only 36.1% in its opener, including 9 of 39 from three-point range. That number of attempts marked a school record, so we know what the philosophy seems to be here. The Quakers were outscored in the paint 36-26 by the Stags, not really a good sign when you think about it as they get set to face a bigger opponent. LaSalle clearly needs to exploit the interior in this game. It's not as if Penn is some powerhouse out of the Ivy League; they're expected to finish below Princeton, Harvard and Yale. Last year, they were fortunate to hold off LaSalle, winning by just three thanks to a career-best 35 pts from AJ Brodeur. This is a pretty young roster, especially for an Ivy League team. With two games coming against ranked teams next week, it's pretty imperative that LaSalle wins this one. I think they will. 8* LaSalle |
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11-12-17 | Patriots -7.5 v. Broncos | Top | 41-16 | Win | 101 | 54 h 56 m | Show |
8* New England (8:30 ET): Normally, I would side w/ the home underdog in this situation, but I just don't see how an inept Denver offense - that is still, sadly, being quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler - can keep pace w/ the rested Patriots on Sunday night. The Broncos went into their (early) bye week (Week 5) at 3-1 SU, but since then, the season has taken a dramatic downturn (four straight losses). Ironically, it began w/ a loss on Sunday night - as 13.5-pt favorites - to the Giants (Giants only win of season!). Then, they had to play three in a row on the road, and lost all of them. They've been outscored 124-52 during the four-game losing streak and while they'd outgained every opponent prior to last week, it's become pretty obvious the defense no longer can carry this team to anything meaningful. Lay the points. New England came into the season as the prohibitive Super Bowl favorite, but two losses in their first four games quickly tempered enthusiasm. But they've since won four in a row, admittedly all against bad teams. But, thankfully, Denver qualifies as a bad team as long as either Siemien or Osweiler is under center (I know Paxton Lynch has been banged up, but how awful must he look in practice). In two games vs. NE last year, Osweiler (w/ Houston) had a 1:4 TD:INT ratio and was outscored 61-16. The Pats came here and beat a better Denver team LY, 16-3 as a field goal favorite. The Broncos defense still ranks highly, but they struggle to defend the tight end and that's a major issue when the opponent has Rob Gronkowski. Last week, the Broncos allowed more than 300 total yds for the first time all year (419) and were gashed by the Eagles to the tune of 51 points. Therefore, off their bye week, the Pats have to be salivating. Bill Belichick has always been particularly lethal off the bye week, owning a 6-1 SU record the last seven years and failing to cover only twice. This is still the top-ranked offenses in the game (27.0 PPG) and unless Denver can somehow summon efforts from past seasons, their inept offense simply won't be able to keep pace. 8* New England |
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11-12-17 | Rockets -3 v. Pacers | Top | 118-95 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Houston (6:05 ET): Indiana has been able to outperform its - admittedly small - expectations in the early part of the season, going 6-7 straight up. But that should change here as they play one of the league's best teams in Houston. It should be pointed out that prior to beating lowly Chicago (105-87) on Friday, the Pacers had lost four in a row - failing to cover the spread all four times. Houston comes in having won five in a row after last night's double revenge spot where they finally beat Memphis, 111-96, as seven-point favorites. Hitting the road w/o rest should not be a problem for the Rockets, who are far more talented that their counterparts this evening. Lay the short number. Houston is now 10-3 SU overall, which has them tied w/ Golden State for the best record in the Western Conference. Of course, they opened the season by upsetting the Warriors, rallying back from a big second half deficit in the process. They're 9-1 SU against everyone besides Memphis thus far w/ the only loss coming at home to Philadelphia, a game in which the Sixers couldn't miss (55.0 FG%). Last night, it was James Harden leading the way w/ 38 points and the game was even more of a rout than what's let on by the final score as Houston led by 23 entering the fourth quarter. They made 16 three-pointers, the fifth straight game w/ at least that many, tying their own NBA record set just last season. This team is not known for defense, but they had 14 steals and forced 20 turnovers last night. Indiana actually swept Houston last season, so there is a revenge angle in play here tonight for the road faves. Houston shot shockingly poor in both games against the Pacers last season (36.4%, 41.0%) and went just 21 of 84 (25%) from three-point range. They should easily top those numbers tonight. Indiana allowed every opponent to shoot 50% or better during the four-game losing streak, before getting the benefit of facing the Bulls, who shot a woeful 39.8% from the floor. Save for games against the Bulls and Kings (league's two worst teams?), every Indiana opponent has scored at least 101 pts, save for one. Here they face a team that ranks #2 in offensive efficiency, trailing only (of course) Golden State. The only way to beat Houston is to play good defense, but the Rockets actually come into this game w/ a better defensive efficiency rating than the Pacers. 8* Houston |
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11-12-17 | Giants v. 49ers +3 | Top | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:25 ET): I am - quite frankly - shocked that the Giants are getting so much love here as they've moved from a one-point dog to a 2.5/3 pt favorite. Granted, they're playing the 0-9 49ers, but in case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the G-Men have only one win themselves and it was over a Denver team that hasn't won in a month. Big Blue is a complete dumpster fire right now w/ the effort level and Eli Manning's future both being called into question. HC Ben McAdoo's days may be numbered here. The performance LW at home vs. the Rams was downright horrendous as they lost 51-17. There is simply no way I would want to lay points w/ this team right now, especially on the road. I'll call for San Francisco to win for the 1st time all year. Take the points. Now Niners' starting QB CJ Beathard has been pretty awful in his own right and it's probably only a matter of time before Jimmy Garoppolo sees action. But this team has played hard for 1st year HC Kyle Shanahan, at least they were earlier in the season when they suffered five straight defeats by a field goal or less, two of those coming in overtime. Since then, it's gotten ugly, but they did have to play both Dallas and Philadelphia in the L3 weeks. The offense has managed only 10 points each of its last three games, but a Giants defense which clearly overachieved LY won't offer much resistance here. Remember - in that lone Giants' win this season, they were outgained 412-266, but benefited from a +3 turnover margin as 13.5-pt underdogs. Manning's days are numbered as the Giants QB and they should be. Injuries at the receiver position have obviously taken their toll this year, but what most fail to realize is this was a terrible offense last season as well. In 10 of their last 14 games, the Giants have not scored more than 17 points. That's atrocious. They come into this game averaging only 16.1 PPG, which barely beats out the 49ers' 15.9 PPG scoring average. Factoring in the homefield advantage here I just don't understand the line move. The Giants appear to have quit on the season and a complete teardown is needed here. The 49ers will play hard for a 1st year HC, at least until they finally get into the win column. This game here, on paper, shapes up as their most "winnable" of the entire season. As a home dog of three points or less, the 49ers are 5-2 ATS the L3 seasons and those have all been "lean years" like this one. 10* San Francisco |
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11-12-17 | George Mason v. Louisville -18.5 | Top | 61-72 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 29 m | Show |
10* Louisville (2:00 ET): To say it was a tumultuous offseason for Louisville just might be the understatement of the decade. Rick Pitino was forced to resign in disgrace amidst scandal that had engulfed the program. So too were multiple assistants. But while the coaching staff may have changed, there is still plenty of talent remaining on the court. New HC David Padgett (just the third L'ville HC since 1971!) inherits a Top 20 team with numerous returning starters back and I have no reason to believe that the Cardinals won't be very good this season. Early on, I think we'll be able to take advantage of some soft lines as the expectation is L'ville might "fall on its face." That's not going to happen though and my read for this opener is that they're severely undervalued. This is a deeper L'ville team compared to last year. Just how much they'll miss Pitino's coaching remains to be seen, but my guess is that it's something that's being overstated. Padgett can lean on preseason award winners Deng Adel and Quentin Snyder, both of whom averaged more than 12 PPG last season, not to mention a trio of returning starters - Ray Spalding, V.J. King and Anas Mahmoud. Furthermore, there is a trio of freshman and one key incoming transfer (Dwayne Sutton) that should bolster the depth. Again, this is a very talented team. As long as Padgett can block out the distractions, the Cardinals are going to win plenty of games this year and possibly nap second place (behind Duke) in a loaded ACC. George Mason (forgot to mention them!) is the first opponent for Padgett and Louisville. The Patriots have already played a game, winning Friday by just two (67-65) over Lafayette. The game was won on a pair of free throws w/ just six seconds left. GMU has some quickness, but will be severely overmatched inside as L'ville has a massive size advantage w/ four players checking in at 6'6" or taller. George Mason's tallest player in the starting lineup is 6'7" (Goanar Mar) and there really isn't any other bigs to speak of beyond him. The Patriots won on Friday in large part to Lafayette shooting only 42.2% from the field. Louisville will shoot much better than that thanks to the advantage down low and that will eventually wear the underdog down. 10* Louisville |
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11-12-17 | Packers +6 v. Bears | Top | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 46 h 16 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (1:00 ET): The Bears are favored for the first time ALL YEAR here and for the 1st time over the Packers since 2008! The latter half of that statement would have been considered unfathomable even a month ago, but Aaron Rodgers breaking his collarbone changed the entire landscape in the NFC North. Plus, GB is working on a short week here (lost Monday night) while Chicago is off a bye. However, I can't agree with the degree to which the Monsters of the Midway are favored here. Again, they haven't been favored in a single game all year prior to this. The last time they were favored was Week 10 of last season when they lost outright to Tampa Bay. Even the Browns have been favored (once) during that time span. Not only did the Bears lose outright that last time they were favored, they are 0-5 ATS as chalk the last two seasons, losing all five of those games outright! The last time Chicago covered a game when favored was Wk 12 of 2014! Green Bay's stock probably couldn't be lower right now, so I'll grab them at an inflated price. It's been pretty ugly w/ Brett Hundley under center for the Pack. Including the game where he replaced Rodgers (at Minnesota), the team has lost all three games (0-3 ATS) and has been held to 17 pts or less every time. Last week may have been the nadir of the Mike McCarthy era as off a bye, Hundley appeared ill-prepared at home vs. Detroit. He now has a 58.4 passer rating w/ a 1-4 TD-INT ratio. But, against the odds, I expect Hundley to play better this week even though he's facing a better defense. Also, it's not like Chicago's offense has shown any capability to blow teams out. They average only 16.7 PPG despite getting plenty of touchdowns from the defense. In fact, the only time they've topped 17 pts in their L5 games was an OT win over Baltimore where they got a defensive score. Mitchell Trubisky is the future for Chicago at the QB position, but the rookie has predictably struggled despite a 3-1 ATS mark. There was the infamous win over Carolina two weeks ago where he completed only four passes and the Bears only won because of TWO defensive scores. The Bears are 4-0 ATS at home this year, but again they were a dog in all four games. The last time they were favored by six points or more was Week 1 of the 2014 season and - you guessed it - they lost outright! This promises to be an ugly, low-scoring game where points are at a premium, thus taking the points is naturally the way to go. The Bears are not accustomed to being EXPECTED to beat Green Bay and should "struggle" in the unfamiliar role. 8* Green Bay |
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11-11-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 50 h 23 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (8:00 ET): This has now become THE game in the Big 12 this year as the winner is likely assured of being no worse than #5 in the next CFP rankings, plus will have the conference lead all to themselves. Ironically, both Oklahoma and TCU have lost to Iowa State this year. Oklahoma lost to the Cyclones as 30-pt (!) home favorites, 38-31, back on October 7th. TCU lost to them at home, 14-7, just two weeks ago. That's the ONLY loss for both teams all season. Both have beaten Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Texas. OU gets the higher ranking likely due to their win at Ohio State early in the year and I don't really think there's many people right now (outside of Ft. Worth) claiming the Horned Frogs are the better team here. Throw in the fact the game takes place in Norman and I'll lay what is actually a pretty short number Saturday night. While they did lose to Iowa State, Oklahoma is still 57-8 SU its last 65 games at Memorial Stadium. So anytime you get the opportunity to lay a TD or less w/ them here, it's probably a good idea to do so. Sure enough, there has been only one time in the previous three seasons that they've been faves of 7 pts or less here in Norman and they won easily, 44-24 over West Virginia, back in 2015. While it's true these teams have a history of playing close games (L5 all decided by 7 pts or less), my thinking is that works AGAINST TCU here. Typically, the favorite is the one undervalued in Top 25 matchups and that's what we have here. OU averages 45 points and 608 yards per game. They will - easily - be the top opponent TCU has taken on this season. Meanwhile, the Sooners have already gone to Ohio State and won. Last week at Oklahoma State, Heisman favorite Baker Mayfield and the offense put on an unreal display w/ 62 points and 785 yards. I just don't know how you stop this offense. TCU does rank 1st nationally against the run, but it's the passing game where OU truly excels. With just 31 pts - total - scored in its last two games, I'm just not sure how the Horned Frogs can keep up. OU has a huge edge at QB in this matchup w/ Mayfield over Kenny Hill and that's going to be a big part of the difference here. Yes, TCU was able to win at Oklahoma State earlier in the year, but as we saw last week, it's the Sooners that are the stronger Bedlam rival and I just can't pick against them at home. 8* Oklahoma |
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11-11-17 | Clippers v. Pelicans -7 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (7:05 ET): The Clippers really let me down last night, failing to even cover in Oklahoma City. They lost 120-111, dropping to 1-6 SU and ATS their last seven games, following a 4-0 SU/ATS start. They are also now 2-14 ATS the L3 seasons following three consecutive games in which they went Over the total. Last night's game went Over, so that trend is still in play tonight as they visit New Orleans. The Pelicans just concluded a 4-0 ATS road trip (against mostly bad teams), going 3-1 SU as well. They did lose the last game, by four at Toronto, but should be able to take advantage here of the Clips playing in the second night of a back to back. It may seem strange to see the Pelicans favored over LA, but I believe the line is justified. The Clippers defense has been very poor each of the L2 games and it doesn't appear as if that is something that can be fixed quickly. They allowed both the Spurs and Thunder to shoot better than 51% from the floor. More troubling for them is that the Pelicans have shot better than 50% each of its last two games. Paul George, who hadn't done much of anything for OKC, went off for 42 pts last night vs. LA and it was the Thunder's highest scoring game of the year. Really, it was a pretty misleading final considering the Clips trailed by as many as 20 pts in the second. This is their third road game in five nights and they're short-handed to boot. Patrick Beverly (knee), Danilo Gallinari (glute) and Milos Teodosic (plantar fascia) have all been ruled out tonight. It's been a bit of a strange season for the Pelicans thus far as they are 5-3 SU on the road, yet only 1-3 SU on the road. They are 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists here, however, having beaten Cleveland and covered against Golden State. This team has two of the best players in the league, Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, who can dominate the interior. Guard Jrue Holliday also had 32 pts and 11 assists Thursday against Toronto. I don't think New Orleans will have any issue scoring in this game. After all, despite the home record, they are averaging 110 PPG here. Assuming they can slow down and unrested and short-handed foe, it should not be an issue covering tonight. 10* New Orleans |
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11-11-17 | USC -12.5 v. Colorado | Top | 38-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 44 m | Show |
8* USC (4:00 ET): Most would be quick to call Southern Cal's season a disappointment as the Men of Troy came in to 2017 w/ playoff aspirations. But even with the two losses, this still a team to be feared. Navigating a schedule that had ZERO bye weeks was practically insurmountable, so I'm not surprised at all to see the multiple blemishes on the resume. Plus, let's look at the two losses, shall we? One was on a Friday night at Wazzu, a game where the Trojans lost multiple OL to injury. The other was at Notre Dame, who is the third best team in the country according to the committee. The last two weeks have given us a glimpse into USC's vast potential. They've routed both Arizona State and Arizona to the tune of 97-52. I don't think they'll have much problem at all w/ Colorado, even in Boulder. Now Colorado has been a true disappointment this year. Last year at this time, the Buffs were on their way to being the surprise winner of the Pac 12 South and playing in the Conference Championship Game. No one expected a repeat of that, but a 5-5 SU/3-7 ATS record is definitely not what the faithful envisioned either. They actually enter this game in last place in the North Division (USC in first). While it was a 3-0 start, that included wins over Texas State and Northern Colorado. Pac 12 play has not gone well as they're just 2-5 SU and the wins were over Oregon State (by only three) and Cal, the two worst teams in the league. Last week, they were beaten 41-30 by Arizona State after giving up 24 pts in the fourth quarter and nearly 600 total yards for the game. USC had just routed that same ASU team two weeks ago and it's pretty frightening to think what Sam Darnold and the Trojan offense might do to this Buffaloes defense. USC is also only 3-7 ATS and was actually 1-7 before covering each of the last two weeks. Their market favoribility took a major hit after the Notre Dame game, but that's fine by me as I fully expect them to win out and play Washington in the Pac 12 Title Game. Not only has it been 97 points from Darnold and company the L2 games, it's been B2B 600+ yard efforts as well. Given Colorado just allowed Arizona State to run for 381 yards last week, I'd say this is a bad matchup facing an offense that has 672 yds over land its last two games, 410 alone from Ronald Jones. The Colorado defense has given up an average of 35 PPG the L5 weeks and this will be the best offense they've faced during that time. CU has NEVER beaten USC in 11 all-time tries, not even LY when they won the Division. In fact, the fact they "only" lost 21-17 was quite misleading as the Trojans outgained them 548-371 and kneeled inside the CU five-yard line to run the clock out. I look for USC to make it three blowouts in a row. 8* USC |
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11-11-17 | Notre Dame v. DePaul +9 | Top | 72-58 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
8* DePaul (4:00 ET): While virtually all of the South Bend faithful will be paying attention to the football team's huge Top 10 showdown w/ Miami tonight, Notre Dame's basketball team comes into the season ranked #14 in the land. It's a solid starting point, but probably a bit too high in my estimation and it's not like the Fighting Irish have ever been a particularly great road team under HC Mike Brey. Therefore, I'm making the call to take underdog DePaul and the points in this season opener. This will be one of the bigger games of the year for the Blue Demons, who are unveiling their brand new arena in Chicago. For Notre Dame, it's simply "just another game" and not one they'll have much interest in winning by any kind of significant margin. DePaul is off a 9-23 SU season, but they have four starters back, at least giving them some much-needed experience. They should be extremely motivated here. "We want to play well and win the game. We want to show that the change of DePaul's culture is real," said Blue Demons' junior guard Eli Cain. He added "It's not just talked about. It's not just something we can go around saying in interviews and put on social media. We want to show that that's the real deal." Furthermore, the Blue Demons haven't beaten Notre Dame in some time. They've lost nine straight times to the Irish, their longest losing skid EVER in the 105 all-time meetings and are just 1-8 ATS in those games. But it will be a stronger DePaul team than per usual taking the court Saturday, one that not only has four returning starters, but also three key transfers. Led by senior Bonzie Colson, Notre Dame is thinking Final Four this season. Last year's team only made it to the Round of 32 (eliminated by West Virginia), but the two years before that, they made it all the way to the Elite 8. Again, my view is the Irish are slightly overrated coming into this season. The team was picked to finish third in the rugged ACC (by the media), behind Duke and UNC, but I think it's a VERY thin line between third and seventh in the league and the Irish could finish anywhere in between. They are only 3-8 ATS the L11 times they have been a road favorite of 6.5 to 9 points, losing five of those games outright. They've also failed to cover in any of their last three games vs. Big East opponents. Take the points here in what should be a close game. 8* DePaul |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State v. Ohio State -14.5 | Top | 3-48 | Win | 100 | 70 h 22 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (12:00 ET): Judging by the ticket count (as of Thursday afternoon), it certainly appears as if no one wants any part of the 13th ranked Buckeyes this week, even though they're at home and HC Urban Meyer is typically outstanding when coming off a loss. The public disdain does make sense; after all, OSU was routed in Iowa last Saturday - 55-24 - yet is still laying a big number here. But at the risk of offending any readers/clients from East Lansing or those who simply may "bleed" Sparty green, Michigan State is a highly overrated outfit and very fortunate to have the record it does. Their five Big 10 victories have come by a TOTAL of 25 points and none were by more than eight! Not only is this line justified; it's actually not high enough! Expectations were way down in East Lansing coming into the season. The Spartans were coming off a 3-9 SU year and a lot of talent elected to bolt in the Spring. Nothing that happened in the non-conference portion of the schedule seemed to indicate this team was ready for big things. There were two "ho-hum" wins over MAC schools (Bowling Green, Western Michigan), followed by a 38-18 thumping at the hands of Notre Dame. But here in Big 10 play, all they've done is win close games, save for one. Notable wins include one over Michigan where Sparty was +5 in turnover margin, thereby enabling them to win a bad weather game where they barely gained 250 total yards. The win at Minnesota, admittedly, shouldn't have been as close as it ended up considering MSU led big before getting backdoored. But the following week saw a highly misleading final in their favor, 17-9 over Indiana, where they scored two late fourth quarter TD's to not just steal the win, but the cover as well. Mark Dantonio got a dose of his "own medicine" the following week in a 3 OT loss to N'western (only Big 10 loss). Then came last week where they upset Penn State in East Lansing, yet another game that was heavily impacted by mother nature (three-hour lightning delay). Man, this team sure seems to win a lot of bad weather games. Two years ago, here in Columbus, the Spartans won another bad weather game. This one as 14-pt dogs, 17-14. This Saturday is expected to be chilly (high of 40 degrees), but no rain is expected. I know that NO ONE wants to hear this right now, but in my mind, Ohio State would still be a favorite over any team in the country, save for Alabama. The Buckeyes average 43 PPG. Michigan State averages only 24 PPG. I'm calling for a three TD victory for the home team here as they're stock couldn't be any lower. I just do NOT believe in Michigan State at all as I don't even believe they are a Top 25 team in the country! 10* Ohio State |
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11-10-17 | BYU +4 v. UNLV | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 50 m | Show |
8* BYU (10:30 ET): It has, quite obviously, been a terrible season in Provo, both on the field and at the betting window. Brigham Young failed to cover in any of its first seven games this season and the lone SU win during that stretch came against an FCS school, Portland State, in the opener. Once they dropped a game, 33-17 at hideous East Carolina, the Cougars' season was, in essence, done. But I've liked the way they've still competed for HC Kalani Sitake the L2 weeks, covering both games, despite nothing to play for. They even won a game, two weeks ago, 41-20 over San Jose State. Then, last week saw them stay inside the number at a much improved Fresno State team, losing "only" 20-13 as 11.5-pt dogs. This week, they're in Vegas on a Friday night against a UNLV team that hasn't been very trustworthy when laying points. I'll grab the number here w/ the short road dog. UNLV came into this season thinking bowl game, which would be a first under HC Tony Sanchez, a local favorite due to his ties to the high school scene. This is Sanchez's third season here and in the previous two, the Rebels have won three and four games. Going back to 2010, only UNLV team ('13) has won more than four games in a season. Four is where they're at now, meaning they'll need to win two of the final three to become bowl eligible. Rebels' fans are probably thinking this can be one of those two, but as alluded to earlier, this team is untrustworthy when favored. They're only 5-8 ATS in the role under Sanchez, including 1-2-1 ATS this year (2-2 SU). They did push LW vs. Hawaii, but also lost outright to Utah State (52-28!) the last time they were a short fave here in Sam Boyd Stadium. BYU was tied w/ Fresno State last week (on the road) entering the fourth quarter and still finished w/ the edge in total yardage and first downs. The week previous, they rolled up nearly 600 yds total offense and forced five turnovers in a 41-20 win and cover (1st of season) over San Jose State. Now, QB Tanner Mangum is done for the year (ACL), but this is the SIXTH time in the last eight seasons that BYU has lost its starting QB to a season-ending injury and they've persevered before. The unknown factor at QB here will make them more difficult to prepare for anyway. Speaking of QB's, UNLV's Johnny Stanton was playing linebacker just three weeks ago. He too is only in there because of injuries. The Rebels have not beaten BYU since '04 and remember this is a team that lost outright to FCS Howard (as 45-pt chalk) in the season opener. 8* BYU |
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11-10-17 | Austin Peay v. Vanderbilt -25 | Top | 54-73 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
8* Vanderbilt (9:30 ET): Vandy typically owns one of the more unique homecourt advantages in all of College Basketball and we should see that on display in the season opener against overmatched Austin Peay. The Commodores were a NCAA Tournament team a year ago, their first under HC Bryce Drew, and once again figure to be a factor in the SEC. Don't let the pointspread scare you here as Vandy is 6-1 ATS the last seven times it has had to lay at least 12.5 points at home while Austin Peay is 1-6 ATS the last seven times they've gotten that many. The Commies are also 25-7 SU, 18-10 ATS the L2 years here in Nashville. Austin Peay has a brand new HC (1st time since 1990) and a pretty young roster to boot. They're really "up against it" tonight. Last year ended in heartbreak for Vandy when Matthew Fisher-Davis inexplicably fouled Northwestern's Bryant McIntosh in a tie game when there were just 14.6 seconds remaining in a 1st round NCAA Tournament matchup. Fisher-Davis was arguably the team's best player LY and he's back for 2017-18, ready to build on a 13.9 PPG scoring average. The All-SEC guard should also have some help up front w/ the triumvirate of Clevon Brown, Djery Baptiste and Ejike Obinna. If even one of those players steps up, it should be a good year for the Commies. Also, there is Jeff Roberson, who is in-arguably the team's best two-way player. It's a new era for Austin Peay as Dave Loos is done patrolling the sideline, which he occupied since 1990! Former South Carolina assistant Matt Figger replaces him and has a lot of work to do considering all the newcomers on the roster. Figger also will likely be implementing the defensive system learned under Frank Martin at South Carolina and that's going to take time and there will be growing pains. Especially here as Vandy has a number of holdovers that can shoot the ball, plus two impressive newcomers in Saben Lee and Max Evans. This should turn into a blowout rather quickly. 8* Vanderbilt |
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11-10-17 | Clippers +6 v. Thunder | Top | 111-120 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:35 ET): Oklahoma City's woes against the Western Conference continued last night w/ a 102-94 loss in Denver. Now, it's REALLY getting hard for me to justify them being close to the top of my personal power rankings as that loss drops them to 4-7 SU on the year, even though they have outscored opponents by a decent margin. But it's now four straight losses (and counting?) and their record vs. conference foes is now an ugly 0-6 SU and ATS. Tonight, they host a fellow contender (Clippers) and I want no part of laying points w/ the Thunder right now. Certainly not w/ LA on its own losing skid right now (three games), making them just as desperate. This is a matchup where you almost HAVE to take the points. I will. The Clippers started the year looking great. They were 4-0 SU and ATS, leaving many to ask "Who needs Chris Paul, anyway?" Well, turns out that question is as silly as it reads as ever since the Clips are just 1-5 SU/ATS, leaving them at .500 overall. The three straight losses came to Memphis, Miami and at San Antonio. I played against them in the last one, but it's interesting to note they've opened as bigger dogs here than what they closed at for that Spurs game. That doesn't make a ton of sense to me, quite frankly. Like the Thunder, LA has outscored its opponents by a decent margin this year, which means they are better than their overall record. While it was just one bad quarter vs. the Spurs that doomed them, shouting could reportedly be heard afterward in the Clippers locker room, leading me to to believe they will be an angry and motivated bunch tonight. The Clippers fell victim to some red hot Spurs' shooting the other night (15 of 28 from three-point range), but they should count on that NOT being the case here as OKC came into last night's game shooting a dismal 42.5% from the field its L5 games. They shot right around that percentage Thursday and managed only 19 pts in the fourth quarter to lose 102-94. They've now failed to score even 100 pts in four consecutive games. This situation clearly favors the road team as OKC is playing w/o rest after dealing with the high altitude of Denver. The Clippers last played Tuesday. Both teams are a bit banged up, but the bottom line is that I expect a close game here and am not sure how the oddsmakers could favor the Thunder this significantly, given the situation. I'd take the points here no matter which team was the underdog. 10* LA Clippers |
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11-10-17 | Northern Iowa v. North Carolina -16.5 | Top | 69-86 | Win | 100 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (7:00 ET): Defending Nat'l Champion UNC has to start the season w/o the services of PG Joel Berry II, but still shouldn't have much difficulty here w/ Northern Iowa. Berry is certainly a key loss; he was named Most Outstanding Player in LY's Final Four and it's a completely silly reason why he is out (broke his hand punching a door after reportedly losing a video game!), but nevertheless there's still plenty of talent on hand for the ninth ranked team in the country. It was another strong recruiting class, which will be counted on to replace the top four rebounders from a year ago. Seventh Woods and Jalek Felton will be the ones charged w/ filling Berry's lost production and, if anything, because of that injury the Tar Heels are undervalued for their opener. Now Northern Iowa is no stranger to pulling upsets. Two years ago, they even beat UNC, but that was at home. Last year was an ugly 85-42 loss in Chapel Hill and while it may not get that bad again this year, clearly the Panthers are outclassed here. Ben Jacobson's team was a disappointing 14-16 SU overall last season and thus they enter 2017-18 w/ reduced expectations compared to previous seasons. Last year's team was also a very poor 10-19-1 ATS at the betting window. While that usually results in a better mark the following year, the fact is the Panthers were just terrible as underdogs a season ago, going 3-10 SU and getting outscored by 17 pts per game. You may want to wait until MVC play begins to start betting this team. UNI is picked for second this season in the Missouri Valley as they have four returning starters plus an impressive freshman in Tywhon Pickford. But, still, they should be outclassed here as they'll struggled to keep pace and find success on the boards against what is certainly a taller and more athletic team. Typically, the Panthers are not very good away from Cedar Falls (9-17 SU, 10-16 ATS L2 seasons) and they really struggled to score on the road last year (59.1 PPG). Obviously, that's quite problematic when facing a foe that averaged 84.4 PPG last year, which was among the highest averages in the entire country. Last year's meeting saw UNI shoot only 33.3% from the floor and get to the FT line just eight times. 8* North Carolina |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 31 h 41 m | Show |
8* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks took a brutal loss last week, falling to the Redskins (17-14) despite a rather sizable edge in total yardage (437-244). It appeared as if they were going to prevail when QB Russell Wilson led one of his patented late game rallies and a TD pass to Doug Baldwin put them up 14-10 w/ only 1:34 to go. But the usually stout defense wilted and conceded a 70-yard TD drive in just 35 seconds to lose the game. Blair Walsh going 0 for 3 on FG attempts hardly helped matters. So now, no longer even in first place in the NFC West, Seattle must travel to Arizona on a short week, laying points, and they're likely w/o Earl Thomas. Still though, I see enough firepower to get by a Cardinals team that is not as good as its record. Arizona is somehow 4-4 SU, despite being outscored by 62 points on the season. To put that scoroing differential in its proper context, only five teams have worse ones and that includes the Giants, 49ers, Colts and Browns. Now last year, the team did have a scoring differential that was indicative of better play than the record, but w/ so many injuries this year, it's pretty surprising to see them at .500. David Johnson was lost to injury back in Week 1 and probably isn't going to return. Of course, with Adrian Peterson now in the fold, that's no longer the issue it once was. But the fact remains that three of their wins have been at the expense of the Colts and 49ers (2) and two of those were in overtime. So again, this isn't really a competitive .500 team per se. All four losses have come by double digits. Seattle's defense has played two bad games this year, against Tennessee and Houston. The other six have seen them allow no more than 17 points. That's significant b/c Arizona has broken the 20 pt barrier only one time since Week 1. Another key here is success in primetime games. The Seahawks are 20-3-1 SU in them since 2010 and won their TNF game each of the last two seasons. Last time they were off a loss, they played a road game in primetime and destroyed Indianapolis 46-18. Coming off a game where he had a career-high 37 carries, I don't see Peterson being as effective here against what is a far better defensive front anyway. These teams are simply not in the same class and the pointspread is too short. 8* Seattle |
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11-09-17 | Lakers +10.5 v. Wizards | Top | 95-111 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 17 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (7:05 ET): I've written before that teams playing the second game of a back to back are often undervalued, especially if they're playing on the road. That looks to be the case here w/ the Lakers, who lost last night in Boston. Lonzo Ball and company fell behind big early (33-16 after 1Q) last night, but was able to make a game of it due to holding the Celtics to just 38.8% shooting. They got as close as two points. Yes, the Celtics lost TWO key players to injury (Horford, Tatum), but I was nevertheless impressed by the Lakers not giving up. Here, they're facing a Wizards team that is not only 0-5 ATS at home, but also 1-6 ATS when favored at any site w/ four outright losses. I'll grab the big number as Washington appears to be overvalued. The Wiz are off an incredibly embarrassing defeat, here at home, Tuesday night. They lost - as 9.5 pt chalk - to the Mavs. Not only did they lose, they lost by double digits. They allowed the Mavs, who came as losers of six in a row, to shoot 52% in the first half and score 64 points. That's pretty unforgiveable. Keep in mind the Mavs came into that game ranked 28th in the league in points per game (97.9) and wound up scoring a season-high. Defense continues to be an issue for this Wizards team as they're giving up 118.2 PPG at home. Again, they have yet to cover a game at home and are just 1-6 ATS laying points. By the way, this is the second time these teams have met this season. The Lakers won the first meeting, outright as a home dog, back on 10.25. It was 102-99 as 5.5-pt dogs, a game which went to OT after the Wiz were outscored by 10 in the fourth quarter. It was also one of the Lakers' best defensive efforts of the season. What Luke Walton needs right now though is #2 overall DC Lonzo Ball to start shooting the ball better. He's at only 29.5% this season, which would be the second lowest FG% over a player's first 11 games (w/ a min of 100 FG attempts) - EVER! You have to expect Ball to start shooting better moving forward. Considering the Wizards allowed 122 and 130 in home losses previous to Washington, there's no doubt in my mind that the Lakers will be able to put up enough points to cover here. They showed they can play defense against the Wiz in that first meetings, thus look for another close game. 10* LA Lakers |
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11-08-17 | Knicks v. Magic -5 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): On the short list of pleasant, early-season surprises, I present the Magic. They're 6-4, which is tied for the third best record in the Eastern Conference right now. That WL record was even better before they dropped B2B games (at home), to Chicago and Boston. The latter loss is certainly excusable, considering the run the Celtics are on right now, but beating the Bulls would seem to be a prerequisite for being truly taken seriously. Another surprising 6-4 team in the East is the Knicks, who invade Orlando tonight off B2B wins, the latest coming last night against Charlotte. Interestingly, the Knicks trailed by double digits entering the 4th quarter in each of their last two wins, making it quite the improbable win streak for them. I hate the situation they're in tonight and will fade accordingly. Just to illustrate how rare an achievement the Knicks have pulled off here, this is the first time they have EVER won B2B games when trailing by DD entering the 4Q in the shot-clock era (1954-)! It's the first time they've won B2B games when trailing by 15+ (at any point) in both since '06. Last night saw them rally back from 15 down to beat Charlotte at home, led by Kristaps Porizingis' 28 pts, which has his scoring average at exactly 30.0 PPG through 10 games. No Knick has ever averaged that many through the first 10 games - ever! Three nights ago, the team rallied from 19 back to beat Indiana, also at MSG. The first of three wins, again at MSG, came at the expense of lowly Phoenix. I know Knicks fans are DYING to cheer about anything right now and it's impressive that the team has won 6 of its last 7 (started 0-3). But, I'm just not ready to buy in yet. They are still have a negative efficiency rate. As I said earlier, I hate the situation tonight from the Knicks' perspective. Yes, teams are often undervalued playing in the second game of a B2B. But that's not the case here. If anything, it's Orlando that's being undervalued here. Despite B2B sub-90 pt efforts, they are still averaging 109 PPG. On the defensive end, they're holding opponents to just 41.9% shooting here at home and that's a problem for a Knicks team that comes in averaging only 95.7 PPG on the road. (Again, the entirety of this Knicks' win streak has been at MSG). The Magic have also been off since Sunday. The Knicks will also not come anywhere near the 60.0 FG% we saw last night while Orlando should drastically improve upon its own 36.3 FG% from its last game. 10* Orlando |
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11-08-17 | Toledo -3.5 v. Ohio | Top | 10-38 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
8* Toledo (7:00 ET): These are the two best teams in the MAC and a rematch is likely in the Conference Championship Game next month in Detroit. Toledo is the ONLY team in the conference w/o a loss (5-0) while Ohio (entering Tuesday) is tied w/ Akron for the lead in the East Division at 4-1 SU. Something will have to give here as Toledo is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in the road favorite role while Ohio has covered 10 of its last 13 in the underdog role. Furthermore, the Bobcats are 7-2 at the betting window this year. However, this will be - BY FAR - the toughest test to date for Frank Solich's team as Toledo's only loss all year was to still unbeaten Miami. And that's Miami FL, not Miami OH. The line has come down pretty significantly since the open and, to me, that has created a situation where there's value on the Rockets. Lay the short number. Toledo also has revenge here for a 31-26 loss last year (as 16-point favorites!) in the Glass Bowl. That game saw both teams roll up 500+ yards of offense, but the Rockets never led. It was their first loss to the Bobcats since '88, but keep in mind these teams do not play every season. Something history buffs may find interesting is these two teams have combined for NINE MAC Title Game appearances, but have won it only twice (both times by Toledo) and not since '04. If they were to meet in Detroit next month, it would be the first time we got Ohio vs. Toledo there. The Rockets haven't even been to the MAC Title Game since '04, which is astounding when you think about it as they have 16 1st or 2nd place finishes in the West since the conference split in '96. Ohio won the East last year. This year should be "Toledo's year." Western Michigan is nowhere close to as good as it was last year and Northern Illinois is still rebuilding. Plus, Toledo already beat N Illinois and won't play WMU until the reg season finale when they already might have the division wrapped up. This team has covered its last four games and is outscoring MAC opponents by 20.6 PPG while outgaining them by almost 200 YPG! Ohio has scored 45 pts three consecutive weeks, but did so against lesser competition. They did lose outright - here at home - to Central Michigan as 10-pt chalk earlier in the year. Last week, despite being Miami 45-28 (and I had the Bobcats), total yardage was basically even. All but one of Toledo's conference wins have come by double digits and while this one may not follow the pattern, it doesn't have to. 8* Toledo |
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11-07-17 | Clippers v. Spurs -3.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Early on, it appeared as if the Clippers wouldn't miss Chris Paul at all. They opened 4-0 SU, but reality has since set it w/ them losing four of five. The most recent defeat came at home Sunday afternoon, 104-101 to Miami, a game in which they trailed by as many as 25. Things get no easier for the Clips tonight as they must travel to San Antonio. The Spurs' season has followed a similar pattern to their counterparts here as they started 4-0, only to then drop four in a row. But they've bounced back w/ B2B wins over Charlotte and Phoenix here at home. They may have actually trailed the Suns at halftime (by four), but the second half was a complete rout w/ Greg Popovich's team building a lead that got as high as 27 pts. I'll lay a short number here w/ them at home. San Antonio is uncharacteristically not near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. That has a lot to do w/ the fact Kwahi Leonard has yet to suit up this season. He's been ruled out for tonight, as has PG Tony Parker, but there is enough holdover talent here to keep winning. Remember that last Thursday, they led Golden State by 19 before letting the game slip away (lost 112-92). Despite the lack of efficiency, the Spurs are still #5 in the league in points allowed (100.0 per game). The defense was on full display Sunday vs. Phoenix when they allowed just 13 points in a critical third quarter. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a fine year here, averaging 22.4 PPG (team-high) on 48.3% shooting (also a team-high). The entirety of the Clippers' 1-4 stretch was at home, which is not a good sign. The lone win was against league-worst Dallas as well. In fact, the Clips have played only two road games all year and one was against the Lakers, which really shouldn't count (teams share the Staples Center). So that leaves them having played only one "true" road game and it was a one-point win over Portland. San Antonio is notoriously one of the toughest places to play in the league and all things considered this is a really short number. Note LA is 2-12 ATS after going Over in three straight games, something they have done coming into tonight. 10* San Antonio |
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11-07-17 | Akron v. Miami-OH -6.5 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Miami OH (7:30 ET): There certainly seems to be some sharp money on the RedHawks here as they've gone from laying four points at the open to almost a touchdown at all shops (as of press time). It's certainly been a disappointing season in Oxford as there was a ton of optimism following last year's finish to the regular season where the team ended on a six-game win streak. That disappointment is reflected in a 2-7 ATS record this season, which includes a 1-5 mark when favored. Yet that hasn't stopped oddsmakers (or bettors for that matter!) here as Miami's opponent this week is a major surprise being on top of the MAC East (tied w/ Ohio). I'm going to lean on what happened to Akron in Toledo two weeks ago and lay the points Tuesday. Though 4-1 in MAC play, Akron has outscored its conference opponents by only 14 total pts. They have two one-point victories, one of those coming in their last game, which was 21-20 over Buffalo at home. The Zips were actually outgained pretty handily in that win, 459-372, and finished w/ nine fewer first downs. They won on a late TD pass (4:46 remaining), which capped a 91-yard drive. It was a similar story in a one-point win at Western Michigan where the Zips were outgained by more than a 2:1 margin yet came away ahead 14-13 in a game that had to be pushed back a day due to inclement weather. I'm just not sure how much longer "lady luck" can continue to ride on this team's shoulder. Again, I point to the fact they were blown out by Toledo, two weeks ago on the road, 48-21 w/ the defense allowing over 600 total yds. Despite the 4-1 conference record, Akron is actually being outgained by 120 YPG by its MAC opponents! They average just 17.2 PPG on the road. Miami lost last Tuesday to rival Ohio, 45-28, though it was basically even in total yardage (Miami actually finished ahead, 448-443). The loss dropped the RedHawks to 2-3 SU in league play, but they are actually outgaining MAC foes by about 50 YPG, essentially making them the opposite of Akron this year. While all three wins this year have been by double digits, four of Miami's six losses have come by eight points or fewer. This game strikes me as time for a "reversal of respective fortunes" and Miami really needs this game if they are to become bowl eligible. They should also be extra motivated by a four-year losing streak to the Zips (lost 35-13 LY), their longest losing skid in the history of the rivalry! I'm not too concerned by the fact Miami may again have to go w/ backup QB Billy Bahl as they have one of the top WR in the country in James Gardner (20.1 yards per reception) and are going against the conference's worst passing defense. The RedHawks also rank 15th nationally in time of possession, so expect them to play "keep away" tonight en route to a win and cover. 8* Miami OH |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers +3 | Top | 30-17 | Loss | -125 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:30 ET): The Packers have had two full weeks to prepare to play an opponent w/o Aaron Rodgers, who in all likelihood will not be back this season (even if the team somehow manages to make the playoffs?). I though Brett Hundley played admirably two weeks ago against the Saints, a game here at home that the Pack lost 26-17. But it was close, within one score in fact, until New Orleans scored a late TD. GB's opponent this week is Detroit, who hasn't been as lucky this season as they were last, which if you follow my writing, won't come as any shock. The Lions were one of several "fraudulent" playoff teams from a year ago as their NIINE fourth quarter comebacks were a league record. They too are off a bye after losing three straight. With two teams on losing streaks, something has to give here and I believe Hundley can play well enough to lead his team to victory. Needless to say, no one would have anticipated GB being a home dog for this matchup. But the Rodgers' injury changed everything. Hundley threw for only 79 yards last week and under his direction, the offense has scored only 27 pts in two games w/ less than 500 total yards. But Detroit's defense may be the elixir they are looking for. They've allowed two 300+ yard passing days in the L3 games and in between gave up nearly 200 yds rushing to New Orleans. So, as bleak as things may look in Green Bay right now, there is hope. I think it would be wrong to simply write them off the rest of the way. There has been only one previous instance of them being a home dog the L3 seasons and they won the game outright. Detroit's offense has its own issues right now. They failed to score even one touchdown in the 20-15 loss to Pittsburgh two weeks ago (five field goals) despite five trips into the red zone. They now rank 28th in red zone efficiency. They cannot run the ball as only one time in seven games have they gone over 100 yards. They are averaging 82 rush YPG, which shockingly is only fifth worst. This is not a team I would trust in the road favorite role and I still think more regression is set to come after overachieving so dramatically last year. 10* Green Bay |
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11-05-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 94-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Second week in a row that I'm using the Hornets as my top play of the week. Last Sunday, it was a 120-113 win at the expense of overachieving Orlando, which begat a three-game win streak for them. That came to an end Friday w/ a close loss in San Antonio where they just missed out on covering as 4.5-pt pups (lost 108-101). Speaking of "just missing out on covering," the T'wolves got "backdoored" last night by Dallas as they were outscored 30-19 in the fourth quarter, resulting in "only" a 112-99 win. That was significant for me as I had the Mavericks +13.5! As good as Minnesota may have looked (for three quarters) last night, I'm willing to bank on that not being the case tonight against a better opponent. Take the points. I've said this many times before, but Charlotte was my pick for "Most Improved Team" coming into the year. Now, they didn't make any particularly splashy moves in the offseason, save for bringing in Dwight Howard. But the key here is they were quite unlucky last season, most notably going 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less, not to mention 0-6 in overtime games. That's just not going to repeat itself this year. They've yet to play a game decided by three points or less this year, but this game certainly profiles as being a potentially tight affair where taking the points would seem prudent. Minnesota, who is 4-0 SU in games decided by three points or less so far, dropped to 0-4 ATS in the favorite role w/ last night's non-cover. In fact, the T'wolves have actually been outscored in spite of their 6-3 SU record. They're giving up a woeful 111.6 points per game and rank 27th in defensive efficiency, which helps explain the poor ATS record as chalk. Prior to last night, they'd yet to win a single game by more than six points this year. Charlotte ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and is a much better team when Cody Zeller is healthy (check the record!), which he is now. Also keep an eye on Jeremy Lamb, who has scored 15+ points in nine consecutive contests. One final note is that this is Minnesota's first win streak of more than three games dating back to 2012. Laying points, they're an excellent "fade" team right now. 10* Charlotte |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -113 | 95 h 14 m | Show |
10* Seattle (4:05 ET): This will be the second week in a row that my top NFL play for the week involves the Seahawks. Last week, I had the Over in their game w/ Houston, which turned into a wild 41-38 for them (best game in NFL this year?). While Russell Wilson and company needed almost the full 60 minutes to achieve victory, I was holding a winning ticket a lot earlier than that as the Over hit late in the third quarter. The rest of the league can now sleep easier knowing that the Seahawks will be the last team to face Texans QB DeShaun Watson as the sensational rookie tore his ACL in practice this week and is done for the year (terrible for the league). This week's opponent is Washington, who is injury-riddled and coming off a bad 33-19 loss (at home) to the division rival Cowboys. Despite the somewhat "conventional" handicapping wisdom that says to take a team off a bad loss, I just don't think the spread is nearly high enough here to endorse the Redskins. In fact, my own power rankings say Seattle is the one being undervalued by about a field goal. After all, this is a team that's won 16 of its last 20 home games. Washington is a team looking to pick up the pieces following B2B NFC East losses. Last week, the offense gained less than 300 total yards against a Dallas defense that quite frankly isn't all that good. Now they turn around and face Seattle, who is allowing only 18.9 points per game, good for seventh in the league and keep in mind that number was even lower before last week. The Redskins are going to have to figure out a way to move the ball w/o TE Jordan Reed, who is one of 13 players currently listed on the injury report. I don't see that happening. Meanwhile, Seattle had no issues moving the ball last week as QB Wilson threw for 446 yards in a very impressive display. With Philadelphia having the best record and both Minnesota and New Orleans surprising, I don't feel that enough people are paying attention to the Pacific Northwest right now as this is the one NFC division winner from last year likely to repeat. The team's lone weak spot, the offensive line, was addressed at the trade deadline as Duane Brown was brought in from Houston. Defensively, the Seahawks should look a lot better this week now that they're not facing Watson. Seattle is not a place where you want to show up playing poorly and banged up and sadly for Washington, they currently fit both of those parameters. 10* Seattle |
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11-05-17 | Falcons +1.5 v. Panthers | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 60 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): There's been a change in favorite for this NFC South matchup w/ the Falcons now in the role of chalk. Though I'm on them and the play certainly still stands, I have to admit that even I was taken a bit aback by the line move. However, perhaps it has something to do w/ the Panthers' strange decision to trade away their #1 wide receiver and close friend of QB Cam Netwon, Kelvin Benjamin. It's not as if Carolina had any kind of depth at that position plus they struggle to run the ball as well. The Panthers defense has really carried the team this year. There have been four games this year when the Panthers have been held to 17 pts or less and they've actually won two of them. Now, you may be thinking that this is not the greatest spot for Atlanta. It is their third consecutive road game and last week they struggled just to get by the Jets (they did cover for me). But also be aware that Carolina has yet to have its bye, so this is a ninth straight game for them w/ no off-weeks. They too are off B2B road games, one win and one loss, and both were 17-3 finals. The loss was very hard-luck as they held Chicago to only five first downs, but gave up a pair of defensive scores. Last week saw them turn the tables on a struggling Tampa Bay team whose QB was not 100 percent. This week sees them playing an offense that was #1 in the league by a mile last season. Granted, Matt Ryan and company have fallen off somewhat in 2017, but there's still plenty to like there. With Carolina's defense, it's worth noting that the four opponents they've held in check would all qualify as having "bad offenses" (SF, Buf, Chi, TB). Their other four opponents - New Orleans, New England, Detroit and Philadelphia - all managed at least 24 points against them. Conditions were not favorable (rained) for the Falcons LW vs. the Jets, but the weather should be more cooperative here. QB Ryan fumbled three times last week, yet still completed 18 passes for 246 yards and even more promising was the run game going for 140 yards w/ Tevin Campbell also being a receiving threat out of the backfield. Atlanta has beaten Carolina three straight times and I just don't see the home team having enough offense to end that streak come Sunday. 8* Atlanta |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +4 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -115 | 92 h 59 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Suffice to say, back when the NFL schedule was released, no one could have envisioned a scenario where the Rams would be favored in MetLife Stadium. Yet, here we are as one of the league's biggest surprises takes on arguably it's biggest disappointment. I was bearish on these Giants coming into the season, noting last year's team that finished 11-5 SU was extremely fortunate considering that they only outscored their opposition by 26 points (over the course of the full season). They were 8-3 SU in one-score games and received a huge boost from a defense that jumped from being one of the worst units in the league to one of the best. Now that the defense has regressed and the offense still stinks, you have a 1-6 team coming out of its bye week. The Rams are also off a bye. They were one of the league's very worst teams a year ago, but have started 5-2 SU for 1st year HC Sean McVay, who has done wonders for his second-year QB Jared Goff. It is the Rams' offense making a quantum leap forward being most responsible for the jump up in the standings. Funny, because most thought that if this team was to improve, it would be Wade Phillips' defense leading the charge (admittedly, that side of the ball has been strong in 2 of the past 3 games). But like we saw Thursday w/ Buffalo, the market is bound to catch up to some of these early season surprises and like the Bills, the Rams are favored on the road here. That has happened one time before this season and LA was infamously "back-doored" on a Thursday night by the 49ers. I just wouldn't feel comfortable yet laying points w/ the Rams on the road. Since the final week of the 2010 season (yes, 2010!), the Rams have been a road favorite of more than three points only THREE times. They have not only failed to cover all three times, but also lost all three games outright. The most recent instance was 2015 at San Francisco. This is also the dreaded 1 PM (ET) start for a West Coast team and it comes on a weekend where Daylight Savings Time ends, so the Rams' body clocks may be far from normal. I get that the Giants have looked lifeless and are missing key personnel (WR position really depleted). The suspension of Janoris Jenkins certainly does not help, but the bottom line is the G-men have had the lead in three games this season. We're set to see better results from them, I believe. Take the points. 8* NY Giants |
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11-04-17 | Mavs +13.5 v. Wolves | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): The "glory days" are most certainly over for the Mavs as what was once a playoff mainstay has declined severely and should be considered one of the worst teams in the Western Conference. Actually, in terms of WL record, there's nobody worse than the Mavericks (in either conference) as their 1-9 SU start is a league-worst. Perhaps just as embarrassing is the team's 2-8 ATS record and both covers came at the expense of Memphis in a home and home last week. They lost last night, albeit close, 99-94 to New Orleans at home as 4.5-pt dogs. Them being in the 2nd of a B2B here adds value as early in the season we often find teams in this situation getting way too many points from the oddsmakers. Minnesota is a team that I would hesitate to lay this many points with, at least until further notice. Case in point, they've already lost outright this season - as 10-pt chalk - to Indiana here at home (gave up 130 pts). This will be an improved team this year, maybe not to the degree originially expected (48 wins seemed a bit too much in my view), but all five wins so far have been by six points or less. Five of those have been by three points or less. So when the T'wolves win, they've been winning close. They achieved their largest MOV of the season on Wednesday, beating New Orleans 104-98 as 2-pt road dogs. I'd like to point out that Minnesota is 0-3 ATS so far in the favorite role. Dallas has been shooting the ball horrifically to this point as they are at only 41.5% from the floor, for the entire year. But facing the T'wolves should remedy that as they are allowing better than 50% shooting for the year, including over 55% here at home! This team has been VERY slow to pick up on Tom Thibodeau's defensive philosophy. In fact, they rank 29th in the league in defensive efficiency. This is as many points as Dallas was getting for a road game against Houston a couple weeks back. Minnesota is certainly not on Houston's level currently and they haven't won four straight games since 2012. Take the points. 10* Dallas |
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11-04-17 | Stanford +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 36 m | Show |
10* Stanford (3:30 ET): Despite already having two losses on its resume, Stanford still has plenty to play for, both individually and collectively. From an individual perspective, RB Bryce Love figures to be getting an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation next month. Whether or not he wins it depends on him getting healthy and how well he plays moving forward. As far as the team is concerned, they find themselves in the role of spoiler w/ home games left against both Washington (next Friday) and Notre Dame (regular season finale). Both of those teams will be looking to make the CFP. Of course, the Pac 12 Championship is still on the table for the Cardinal, who got a major scare last week in Corvallis, only beating Oregon State by a score of 15-14 (were w/o Love). There's been some question as to whether Love is going to play here, but I'm banking that he will and thus Stanford is an excellent play plus the points. Washington State is another team that probably feels it can still win the Pac 12 Championship. They too have Washington left on the schedule, though this year's Apple Cup will be waged in Seattle. (Wazzu will be off a bye). But before we can even begin to discuss the regular season finale, we need to talk about the way the Cougars have been trending. It's been two losses in the last three games for Wazzu, one being an ugly one (37-3 at Cal), then LW's debacle at Arizona (58-37). I concede to you that both of those losses ocurred on the road. But I still never took this team seriously as a legit threat to win the conference and in fact, they hardly ever cracked my Top 25, even when they were still unbeaten. Last week saw QB Luke Falk pulled, yet Mike Leake still called 84 pass plays! This is a big revenge game for Stanford, which lost 42-16 (at home!) LY to Wazzu. I'm sure the coaching staff and players have not forgotten. Love's health is certainly a big deal, and something I'll be monitoring throughout the week. But the bottom line here is that you have to love a player averaging more than 10 yards per carry going up against a defense that just surrendered over 300 yards rushing last week. Weather should also be a factor Saturday afternoon in Pullman. Though Stanford is a California team, they certainly are not the kind of wide-open attack that comes to mind when we think Pac 12 offenses. If the reports are true and the weather is freezing and rainy, that's an edge for the Cardinal as Wazzu's passing attack will undoubtedly be negatively affected (and they can't run the ball). Stanford is actually averaging more points per game than Wazzu this year, which is shocking, and they're the better team getting points. 10* Stanford |
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11-04-17 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -13.5 | Top | 37-48 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 35 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (3:30 ET): Are the Fighting Irish ... (gasp!) underrated? It sure seems so. Well, not by the pollsters, who placed them #3 in the initial CFP rankings. But bettors have certainly been able to cash in on this team w/ great frequency as they roll into Saturday on a six-game ATS win streak. The last two weeks have seen them destroy both USC and NC State, teams that I consider to be among the top 25 in the country. Both those games took place here in South Bend w/ the Irish winning by a combined 84-28 margin. Up next is a Wake Forest team you may hear labeled as being "dangerous," but the bottom line is that the Demon Deacons are not as good as either of ND's last two opponents and coming off an upset (of Louisville), I think they'll be the ones primed for a letdown in this spot. Lay the points. Notre Dame has the "honor" of being called the "best 1-loss team in America." Since losing to #1 Georgia by a single point here at home, back in Week 2, no other team has come within 20 points of them. I absolutely love the way this offense runs the ball as we've now seen four consecutive games w/ at least 318 yards over land, thanks in large part to an experienced line. That's very bad news for a Wake Forest defense which can be had. Two weeks ago, they allowed 427 rushing yards to Georgia Tech and for the season they are giving up 184 rush yards per game. Last week against Louisville, the Wake offense gave up well over 500 total yards and still won, something they will assuredly NOT be able to do here. On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame has just as big an advantage. It starts w/ their DC, Mike Elko, having previously served as the Wake Forest DC the previous three seasons. So Elko knows the Demon Deacons' offense. Even better is that he won't have to worry about defending their top WR, Greg Dortch, who is now out for the year due to an abdominal injury. Dortch had 10 catches for 167 yds last week vs. L'ville w/ four touchdowns, so he'll clearly be missed. So too will starting RB Cade Carney. I also forgot to mention Wake will be w/o a starting safety, Jessie Bates, for this game. I think people are just looking at the spot for Notre Dame, who is off B2B beatdowns of Top 25 opponents w/ Miami on deck, and thinking letdown. But it's Wake Forest that's off an upset here and they're down several key players, including their best one on offense. I just can't see them keeping pace with the ND offense, on the road. 8* Notre Dame |
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11-04-17 | Wisconsin -12 v. Indiana | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 65 h 6 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): I think it's fair to ask what Indiana has left in the tank. The last three weeks have to have taken a toll as we've seen them come up brutally short in losses to Michigan and Michigan State. Then, last week they lost outright at Maryland, giving up 42 points in the process. They did outgain the Terps, 483-345, and have nearly twice as many first downs. They even jumped out to an early 14-0 lead. But none of that mattered as QB Peyton Ramsey got hurt and Maryland got a big play early in the 2Q where they returned a blocked punt for a TD. Normally, this is situation where I'd at least consider the home dog that seems "due," but I have major concerns over the Hoosiers' state of mind right now as even becoming bowl eligible will be a chore. Wisconsin comes to Bloomington probably feeling a bit disrespected. I hate when teams play that card. But in the case of the Badgers, they are one of three Power 5 teams to be unbeaten, yet they are also ranked only 9th in the initial CFP rankings. (Interestingly, Miami is #10, but Alabama is #2). Winning out would certainly have to land the Badgers in the top four though, right? Yes, we can poke fun at their schedule thus far. But if they beat both Michigan and Ohio State, they'll be in. As for this game, they come in off a lackluster 24-10 win at Illinois where the edge in total yards was very slight. That said, they were up 24-3 for most of the fourth quarter before conceding a touchdown in the final minute. It was the third straight game that the Badgers' defense allowed 13 pts or less. The IU QB situation being what it is, I see them struggling to score points Saturday afternoon whether it's Ramsey or Richard Laglow starting. Wisconsin is allowing only 12.9 points per game for the season and Northwestern is the only team to top 17 against them. The Badgers and Hoosiers haven't played since 2013, which is probably just fine from the IU perspective as they've dropped nine in a row to the team from Madison and done so by an average of 37 PPG! I realize that Badgers' bellcow Jonathan Taylor is currently listed as questionable for this game, but with or without him, I see the offense being able to move the ball against a suspect Indiana defense which has three times permitted 42 points or more. 8* Wisconsin |
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11-03-17 | Heat +5 v. Nuggets | Top | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* Miami (9:05 ET): It's always interesting, at least early in the season, when you have two non-playoff teams from a year ago facing off and both think have postseason aspirations for the current year. That's what we have in this matchup w/ Denver hosting Miami. The Nuggets know they probably don't have a chance to crack the top four in the Western Conference, but beyond the Warriors, Spurs, Rockets and Thunder, they have as good a shot as any team out West (of making the playoffs). Over in the East, Miami actually finished with the fifth best point differential (+1.1 per game), but ended up at only .500 due to digging themselves to big of a first half hole (went 11-30 SU first 41 games). This year, it's the pointspread giving the Heat problems as they are the ONLY team in the league yet to cover a single time (0-5-2). But I'm calling for that to change here. Take the points. Ironically, the Heat were one of the best ATS teams in the league last season (funny how that works out!). I faded them in the season opener, which ended up being a 116-109 outright loss to Orlando. Since then, they've gone 3-3 SU, but the wins were over Indiana, Atlanta and Chicago, who you can expect to find near the bottom of the Conference by season's end. Also, all three wins were at home. In fact, the Heat haven't played a road game since the season opener in Orlando. They're set to embark on a six-game road trip, most of them out West, but one of the (literally!) big reasons I like them here is that Hassan Whiteside is back in the lineup. Making his 2017-18 season debut Wednesday, the big man had 13 pts and 14 rebounds in just 26 minutes as Miami beat Chicago 97-91. Denver is off an impressive win, 129-111 over Toronto, to start this season-long six-game homestand. Anything that could go right for the Nuggets there, did, and they led by 32 pts going into the fourth quarter. But I wouldn't look for such a performance to be duplicated anytime soon. I'm a little miffed at how much respect the Nuggets are commanding in the marketplace as they've been favored in every game since the season opener. They're just 3-4 ATS during the stretch w/ two of the wins coming against Sacramento and Brooklyn. The road team won both matchups between these two last season. 10* Miami |
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11-03-17 | Suns v. Knicks -3.5 | Top | 107-120 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks are not good, but fortunately for them, neither are the Suns and that's who they're hosting Friday night at MSG. It was exactly a week ago when I took the Knickerbockers in an almost identical situation, that being laying a short number at home against a bad team. The result was a 107-86 beatdown of the Nets, which was NY's 1st ATS win of the season (started 0-3). They quickly followed that w/ upsets of the Cavs and Nuggets, but saw the three-game win streak come to an end Wednesday when Houston showed up and blew them out. I like this spot as a bounce back as the Suns have overachieved since making an early season coaching change. They're 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) for interim HC Jay Triano. But I don't think anyone thinks this is the start of something big and thus I'll fade them here. Lay the points. Under Triano, Phoenix has averaged 113 PPG. But they've faced some bad defensive teams during this stretch and scored 122 in B2B games. One of those was against Brooklyn. The other, which took place Wednesday, saw them battle back from a 20-point deficit to defeat Washington. That comeback was led by TJ Warren, who finished w/ a career-best 40 points. Again, not to "beat a dead horse," but I expect regression to start taking hold here. This is not a good team and it's either them or Sacramento that will finish in the basement of the Western Conference. This was a team that posted only ONE three-game win streak last season and all three games were at home. The Knicks are off a horrific defensive effort as they allowed Houston to sink 19 three-pointers in the 119-97 loss. The good news is that NY is 16-12 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 115+ points their previous game. Kristaps Porzingis was unable to finish the game Wednesday due to being sick and while he's currently not a lock to play, he is listed as probable. So I expect far more from him than the 19 points he scored against the Rockets. This is also a bit of a revenge spot for the Knicks, who twice lost to Phoenix last season, both times by just two points. The Knicks won't get my endorsement too often, but for the second Friday in a row, they're being undervalued (against a bad team) at home. 8* New York |
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11-02-17 | Navy v. Temple +8.5 | Top | 26-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
10* Temple (8:00 ET): The AAC is having another strong year w/ UCF threatening to be this year's "Group of Five" team in a New Year's Six Bowl Game. But both Navy and Temple, particularly the latter, are teams that have taken respective steps back in spite of the conference's overall ascension. These two met in LY's AAC Championship Game w/ the Owls winning big, 34-10 as 2-pt dogs in Annapolis. With the HC of that team, Matt Rhule, having departed for Baylor though, there was no way the Owls were going to repeat last year's 10-4 SU (and 12-2 ATS!) records. Sure enough, they come into this week at 3-5 SU and ATS. As for Navy, they started 5-0 SU, but have since dropped B2B games. I like the way Temple matches up here (familiar w/ triple option!) and will take them as a home dog. Now it's essentially a entirely different coaching staff, not to mention front seven, for Temple here compared to LY's Conference Championship Game. But still, they catch a break in having additional time to prepare for this matchup, not that they needed it though as they faced Army in their last game! The Owls did allow 248 rush yards in that 31-28 loss, but that was on 50 carries. So they defended the triple option relatively well. I should also mention how three of Temple's four losses this year have been by seven points or less. Like Navy, they're far better suited as underdogs. They covered as seven-point dogs against Army, a game which went to overtime and the Owls probably should have won in regulation. Not only did they outgain the Black Knights 506-389, but they had a seven-point lead w/ 90 seconds left in regulation, only to allow the typically anemic Army passing attack to carve them up! It was a similar story two weeks ago vs. UConn where Temple held almost a 2:1 edge in total yards (28-15 in first downs), but lost by four. Navy's two losses this year came against the teams most likely to represent the AAC in this year's Conference Champ Game, Memphis and UCF. The loss to UCF saw QB Zach Abbey leave in the third quarter due to a concussion and the Midshipmen's 17-game home regular season win streak come to an end. Of course, they were also handled LY here in Annapolis by this Owls' defense, getting held to a season-low in total yardage. Abbey's health is certainly something to monitor here, though the coaching staff has said he will play. Still, you have to wonder about performance after being knocked out. Both of these teams have been outstanding ATS in recent years, but I gravitate towards the fact Temple is 12-3 ATS the L15 times it has gotten points. 10* Temple |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan -3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Western Michigan (7:05 ET): First off, the reason for the line dropping here is that WMU QB Jon Wassink is out w/ a broken collarbone. He sustained the injury in the Broncos' 20-17 OT win at rival Eastern Michigan 11 days ago and is done for the regular season. As deflating as that can be for a team, I still favor WMU by a far more significant margin than the oddsmakers are, against this latest "directional" opponent. A reason for Central Michigan getting some additional respect here in this spot is that they are coming off a 56-9 win. But I wouldn't read too much into that as the opponet was Ball State, who is not just one of the worst MAC teams, but also among the very worst teams in the entire country. I plan on taking advantage of this deflated line. You should too! It certainly didn't take long this season for Western Michigan to exceed their number of losses from LY, but that was to be expected after a "dream" 13-1 campaign landed former HC PJ Fleck the job at Minnesota. There was simply no way this year's team was going to match what the 2016 group did. But after opening w/ losses against USC and Michigan State (no shame there), the Broncos have played well, winning five of their last six. Their one loss came against Akron in a rescheduled affair that had to be played a day later (on a Sunday) due to flooding. I'd say that game certainly qualifies as "extraordinary circumstances." Yes, WMU has won two overtime games so far, one of them a record-setting 7 OT affair w/ Buffalo (71-68). But they're still outscoring MAC foes by two touchdowns per game while outgaining them by 78 YPG. Now, the Wassink injury does change things a bit. 1st year HC Tim Lester will be turning the reigns over to a freshman, Reece Goddard, who has thrown all of three passes in his college career. But having the additional time to prepare Goddard for his 1st start is huge, at least in my estimation. Central Michigan's defense is by no means great as they'd given up at least 27 points in six of their first seven contests. I expect Western Michigan to still move the ball here, thanks to RB Jarvoin Franklin, who has become his school's all-time leading rusher following three consecutive 100+ yard games. Also, it's worth noting that Goddard did led the GW drive to beat Eastern Michigan. Even though that was on a short field, he'd previously led an 11-play, 61-yard drive near the end of regulation that resulted in a missed FG. Central Michigan has lost three straight times to WMU and is only 3-7 ATS when off a MAC win. 10* Western Michigan |
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11-01-17 | Bucks v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Milwaukee let me down last night, big time, so I'm going after them here. Actually, that's not the sole reason as even had they beaten the Thunder at home Tuesday night, they'd still find themselves playing the 2nd game of a B2B here, on the road, against a team I feel is set to be among the most improved in the league this year. The Hornets are in off B2B wins here, first cashing as my *10* Game of the Week on Sunday (over Orlando), then upsetting Memphis (on the road) the following night. As I've written about previously, Charlotte is a much better team when Cody Zeller is in the lineup and it's no coincidence that the team has won both games since he returned from his knee injury. Now they're back at home and I'll lay the short number. As alluded to at the top, the Bucks did not play well last night. They were soundly beaten at home, 110-91 by Oklahoma City, as 2.5-pt dogs. "The Greek Freak," Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to put up MVP-like numbers (28-8-3 last night), but the problem is that the Bucks are not a deep team. That became obvious last night when he had to go to the bench early due to foul trouble. The Bucks were just 1 of 14 from three-point range at one point and never really did get back in the game after falling behind by double digits in the 1st quarter. They trailed by 18 at the half, at home, mind you. It's not as if OKC had been overtly impressive prior to last night's game either. Milwaukee is also going to miss Greg Monroe, who is out for at least 12 days. Him not making his usual presence felt in the paint last night really hurt the Bucks - at both ends. This is also an early season revenge spot for the Hornets, who lost 103-94 (as 6.5-pt dogs) in Milwaukee back on 10.23. They did not have Zeller for that contest and shot just 42.3% from the field. It wasn't exactly a banner shooting night yday either, but Charlotte was able to overcome a double digits deficit and going just 41.6% from the floor to beat Memphis 104-99 Monday night. Keep in mind that the Grizzlies had not lost a home game before Monday. Kemba Walker led the way w/ 27 points after going for 34 Sunday vs. Orlando. Believe it or not, but Dwight Howard also looks revitalized here. I say that even though he's off - easily - his worst game in a Hornets' uniform. I expect him to play much better tonight, especially because he won't have to deal w/ Monroe. Charlotte is also playing excellent defense so far as opponents are shooting just 40.9% against them for the year! They are top six in defensive efficiency, which is far ahead of Milwaukee, who ranks just 19th. 10* Charlotte |
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10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks +1.5 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): Two teams w/ lofty 2017-18 expectations meet in Milwaukee Tuesday as the Bucks host the Thunder. OKC is coming off a whitewashing of Chicago, 101-69 on the road, but let's keep in mind the opponent there and the fact that the Thunder are still only 3-3 SU on the young season w/ their three wins coming against three very bad Eastern Conference teams (Knicks, Pacers, Thunder). As for Milwaukee, they've lost to Cleveland and Boston, a sign that they may not be ready to leap into the upper echelon of the Eastern Conference just yet. But I like the value here on them at home as this will be the 1st time since the season opener (won 108-100 over Boston) that they are NOT favored. OKC has its version of a "Big 3" this year (Westbrook, Anthony, George), but Milwaukee has the NBA's leading scorer in Giannis Antetokounmpo (34.7 PPG) and he just may be the best player on the court tonight, which is saying something. Coming off a lopsided result like Saturday may not bode well here for the Thunder. They are just 3-8 ATS the L3 seasons after a game where they held the opponent to 85 points or less. They may not have an opponent shoot as poorly as the Bulls (28.2%) did Saturday, the rest of the season. It's interesting that in all three wins this year, OKC's opponent has shot the ball horrendously, including a 33.7% effort from Indiana last week. Opponents will certainly not go on shooting under 42% for the year against the Thunder, so take those defensive numbers w/ a "grain of salt." Facing the league's leading scorer is bound to affect those defensive numbers. Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more pts in five of the first six games and additionally is averaging 10.7 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game. No player in league history had ever previously averaged 34-10-5 over his team's first six games! Now OKC has Russell Westbrook, who already has three triple doubles in the first six games, also a first in league history. But lost in the fact that the Thunder have benefited from some truly horrific shooting performances from their opponents is the fact they haven't shot the ball all that well themselves. Only once this year have they shot 50.0% in a game. Every other game has seen them at 48% or below. Tonight, they face a team that is third in the league in both effective FG% and true shooting percentage. I'm not ready to buy into OKC as any kind of defensive stalwart yet and w/ this being their third road game in five nights, I see them struggling to stop the "Greek Freak" and company. 8* Milwaukee |
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10-31-17 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -9 | Top | 28-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Miami-Ohio is actually one of the MAC's top rivalries. Known as "The Battle of the Bricks," Ohio has won 10 of the previous 11 matchups and LY's 17-7 victory in Oxford was the tiebreaker that allowed Frank Solich's Bobcats advancing to the Conference Championship Game. (Both teams went 6-2 SU in conference play). Coming into this year's meeting, Ohio finds itself w/ the top overall record among MAC East teams (6-2), but they're one-half game back of Akron for the division lead. Miami has been one of the bigger disappointments in the country as they're only 3-5 SU after ending LY on a six-game win streak (excluding bowl). The RedHawks have been favored in almost all of their games (w/ Notre Dame being the only exception), but here they look to be "up against it" especially if QB Gus Ragland is again unable to play. Lay the points. Ohio lost an early season TV game, at Purdue, 44-21. They were actually just a short dog in that game, despite being the road team against a Big 10 opponent. Three consecutive victories followed, but then the Bobcats were upset at Central Michigan, losing 26-20 as 10-pt chalk. But now, they can again make it three straight wins following a loss as the L2 games have brought B2B 48-point efforts, including an annihilation of Kent State two Saturdays ago, 48-3. The OU defense allowed only 166 total yards in that game. The Bobcats have covered the spread in all six wins this season and gone 5-1 SU/ATS as favorites. Over the L3 seasons, they've won 17 of the 22 games in which they've been favored. The last two years have seen the Miami offense manage a total of only 10 points against this Ohio defense. If they again have to go w/out Ragland, I don't like the underdogs chances here. But even w/ their starting QB, there's no guarantee of improved play. The team is only 2-4 SU/ATS w/ Ragland as the starter this year and that includes an awful home loss to Bowling Green, who hasn't beaten anybody else this year. I get that it's desperation time for the RedHawks, who must win three of their final four games just to be bowl eligible. But they're up against the best team in their division here, possibly w/o their starting QB, and Ohio is outscoring opponents by more than four touchdowns per game here in Athens. I'm not buying any kind of defensive resurgence for Miami here, even though they've allowed just 31 pts total the L2 games. They were fortunate to be +2 in turnover differential in the 24-14 win over Buffalo 10 days ago. It's not as if the RedHawks' schedule has been all that challenging to this point, so the fact that they're 3-6 SU is pretty ominous, especially since Ohio is the best team they will have faced since the Notre Dame game. 8* Ohio |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 127 h 59 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:30 ET): Was it only two weeks ago that we all considered Kansas City the best team in football? The Chiefs were unbeaten at 5-0, not only straight up, but against the spread as well. They'd won 27 of 31 regular season contests and with that Week 1 upset of the Patriots, were certainly deserving of all accolades. But two losses later and now they're looking to snap their first losing skid since a 1-5 SU start in 2015. Division rival Denver is another team whose last two weeks have not gone well. They went into their (early) bye week at 3-1, but suffered a shocking Sunday night loss to the Giants, then were shutout by the Chargers last week. So, it's two desperate teams here and with it being a division rivalry, I expect a close game. Thus, taking the points is a "no brainer." Kansas City's losses have come to Pittsburgh and Oakland. They were actually dominated far more than the final score (19-13) indicated against the Steelers as they were outgained 439-251 and had 11 fewer first downs. The Raiders game, on a Thursday night, saw the defense again shredded to the tune of 505 yards and 32 first downs. Now Denver's offense isn't exactly prolific. They've been held to 16 pts or fewer four straight weeks. But in that shocking loss to the Giants two weeks ago, the offense did gain 412 total yards. The problem is that they turned it over three times there and then did the same again last week. A -6 TO margin in a two-week span will leave most teams at 0-2. One thing that this Broncos offense should do is lean on running the ball. Kansas City's defense is only 28th at stopping the run. Denver, believe it or not, has outgained all six of its opponents this season! That astounding fact has a lot to do w/ their league-leading defense, which is permitting an average of just 258.5 yards per game. That unit should certainly be able to keep them in this one. Note that while the Broncos are outgaining foes by roughly 80 YPG, the Chiefs have actually been outgained this season and are giving up nearly 400 YPG! Denver, like KC, has been an underdog in only one game all year. That was Week 2 vs. Dallas and they blew the Cowboys out 42-17. As an underdog, the Broncos are not just 9-4-1 ATS the L3 seasons, but also 9-5 straight up. They've also won three straight Monday night games as well. With this being the middle game of a three-game road trip, and Philadelphia on deck, you have to figure it will be the Broncos' best effort here. They are also 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS off a division loss. 10* Denver |
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10-30-17 | Wolves -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): The T'wolves came into the season w/ a lot of hype and a projection befitting a top five team in the Western Conference. Personally, I thought those expectations were pretty lofty. Early returns haven't exactly been what management had hoped for, as the team currently sits at 3-3 SU w/ every win close (by three points or less). Two of those were at Oklahoma City's expense, including one on Friday at home. I should point out something about the team's previous two games, however, both of which were losses. Jimmy Butler missed both games and though he's new to this team, the absence was certainly felt. Against OKC, Butler played a team-high 38 minutes and scored 13 of his 25 pts in the 4Q. He was clearly the best player for the T'wolves, which is saying something considering Karl-Anthony Towns also went for 33 points and 19 rebounds. Miami is just 2-3 SU despite playing all but one game at home. Their lone road game was the season opener, where I played against them, and they lost outright at Orlando. They quickly bounced back w/ a two-game win streak, but those wins happened to come at the expense of Indiana and Atlanta, two of the very worst teams the Eastern Conference has to offer. They've since lost to both the Spurs (by 17) and Celtics (by 6). Against the spread, the Heat are 0-4-1 ATS so far, a far cry from last year when they finished as one of the league's top teams at the betting window. With Butler in the lineup, Minny is clearly a better team. The fact the team is 3-1 SU in the lineup definitely means something. Meanwhile, Miami is going to be w/out one of its top players Monday, that being Hassan Whiteside, who has been out since the opener. The Heat trailed by 11 going into the fourth quarter against Boston and were held below 100 pts the first time this season. Perhaps its reasonable to expect a bounce back on the offensive end here, but I see a team that lacks the firepower to compete w/ the T'wolves right now and Whiteside's absence will continue to loom large on the defensive end. Minnesota isn't even shooting the ball that well yet, and still is averaging 106.8 PPG. 10* Minnesota |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 103 h 60 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:25 ET): Those who follow me, know that road favorites simply are "not my thing." At least, usually. But I'll make a big exception here for a matchup where I believe the road chalk to be significantly better than the home dog and the line is basically insignifcant. Pittsburgh is a rather "quiet" 5-2 (SU) right now, but actually ranks #1 in DVOA over at FootballOutsiders, a ranking which carries a lot of weight (in my opinion). As for Detroit, this is a team whose record I haven't respected for the last two seasons. Last year's 9-7 SU finish was pretty phony based on them not beating a single playoff team along the way and needing a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks to get there. I didn't think they had a chance to match LY's record this year, so at 3-3 SU currently, don't be surprised if they start losing more than they win the rest of the way. I'll lay the short number here. Yes, the Lions are coming off a bye, but underdogs off a bye week tend to not perform as well as favorites. That's confirmed by a poor effort last week from Cincinnati, who faced (you guessed it!) the Steelers. Coming off a huge road win over Kansas City (handed Chiefs their 1st loss of the season), the Black & Gold beat down their division rival, winning 29-14 w/ a rather commanding 420-179 edge in total yardage. Having to constantly settle for field goals is what kept that game (and my Over bet!) more interesting than it should have been. But now they get to face a Lions team that gave up 52 pts in its last game, two weeks ago at New Orleans. To bring things "full circle" here, underdogs coming off a bye week are just 47% ATS dating back to '03. A reason for the Steelers' slow start offensively was that RB Le'Veon Bell was just getting back into "game shape" after holding out all preseason. But Bell has posted B2B monster games w/ 179 and 134 yards against the Chiefs and Bengals respectively. Conversely, the Lions have no run game as they average just 84 YPG over land, which ranks 26th. Pittsburgh's defense is also quietly playing very well as it is giving up only 16.6 PPG for the year, which is third fewest in the league. Additionally, they rank 2nd in total defense (yardage allowed). Keep in mind that the scoring average would be even lower were it not for TWO pick-six's returned against them in the Jacksonville game. Detroit's offense isn't averaging 300 YPG right now, an ominous sign, while Pittsburgh is outgaining its opponents by slightly more than 100 YPG, which is #1 in the entire league. 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets -3.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (6:05 ET): Are the Orlando Magic the best team in the Eastern Conference? Well, according to record and point differential they are, but it's obviously way too early to start drawing any real conclusions from that. Still, tip your cap to a franchise that has done nothing since Dwight Howard left town back in 2012. The Magic have opened 4-1 SU and are outscoring opponents by a shocking 10.8 point per game margin. That margin drastically improved w/ a somewhat shocking result Friday night, a 114-87 win over the Spurs (as 5.5-pt home dogs). They've also beaten Cleveland, by 21 point, also at home. But they've also lost a game at Brooklyn. To me, it's time to "sell high" on Magic stock as here they're facing a team I've proclaimed as one of the most likely to improve in 2017-18. Charlotte was an unlucky 36-46 SU last year. I say unlucky b/c they actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season, despite finishing 10 games below .500. The issue was that they were 0-9 SU in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU in overtime games. It's interesting to note that in their 48-34 season two years ago, they went 5-0 SU in OT games. This year, largely due to multiple injuries, has gotten off to a disappointing start. Minus Nicolas Batum (out 6-8 wks), Cody Zeller, Michael Carter-Williams (also out indefinitely), Treveon Graham and Julyan Stone, the team lost Friday at home to Houston by a score of 109-93 (were 2.5-pt dogs). The Hornets that did play did not shoot well (37.5% overall) particularly in the second quarter when they missed 18 of 22 shots. Note, however, that it was still a four-point game entering the 4Q. Thankfully, it appears as if Zeller will return here. That's huge as the Hornets were a completely different (i.e. better) team w/ him in the lineup LY. He's missed the L4 games due to a bone bruise on his right knee. Prior to the loss Friday, the Hornets were 2-0 at home, winning both games by double digits. They are also 21-15 ATS coming off a DD loss the L3 seasons. Orlando was a stunning 57.1% from the floor against San Antonio, including 11 of 23 on three-point attempts. Meanwhile, the Spurs shot just 33.7% overall and were 4 of 24 from beind the arc. There may not be a game the rest of the season where the Magic enjoy such a decided edge in shooting percentage. They are a virtual lock to decline tonight and that's a big reason while I'll lay a short number w/ the home team here. 10* Charlotte |
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10-29-17 | Falcons -4 v. Jets | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 96 h 6 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Needless to say, NO ONE expected these two teams to be sporting near-identical records entering this Week 8 matchup. Atlanta, who infamously blew a 28-3 lead in LY's Super Bowl, had aspirations of returning to that big game this year. As for the Jets, it was widely perceived that they were tanking in 2017 and would end up w/ the league's worst record. Surprise, surprise though. Both have the same number of wins (3) right now, though the Jets have played one more game. It's getting to be desperation time for the Falcons, who are in a tough division (NFC South) and can't afford to be dropping many more games if they want to even make the playoffs. Least of all this one, against a team that should not be able to compete w/ them offensively. I rarely play road favorites, but will make an exception here. Now that Falcons offense, which led the league by a mile last year, has certainly fallen off in the first half of this season. Some of that has to do w/ the departure of OC Kyle Shanahan. But Shanahan taking his playbook to San Francisco can't solely explain Matt Ryan and company scoring all of seven points the last six quarters w/ that lone TD coming in garbage time last Sunday night vs. the Patriots. Being that they were embarrassed (again) on national TV last week, my guess is that Falcons' stock has reached its nadir & it's now time to "buy low." I should also mention that their previous two losses (also to AFC East teams), were both highly misleading. They outgained Miami 339-289, but inexplicably blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home. The week before, also at home, they outgained Buffalo 389-281. However, they were undone by a -3 turnover margin, most notably a fumble return for a touchdown. So while Atlanta is 3-3, they are still outgaining foes by 47.3 YPG and averaging a healthy 6.4 yards per play. To put that in proper perspective, the 3-4 Jets are -45.9 YPG. They are also off B2B crushing defeats against AFC East (their division) foes. First, they left New England feeling ripped off after a bad call denied them a chance to take New England to overtime (lost 24-17). Then last week, they blew a 2 TD lead at Miami, losing in overtime. Like we saw w/ San Francisco last week, it's difficult for a bad team to consistently "get off the mat" after suffering a series of close losses. I don't see the Jets winning here and staying within the number for a third straight time while losing seems unlikely as well. If you're looking for a specific area where the Falcons can exploit the Jets, it could be running the ball as this offense is still averaging a healthy 4.9 yards per carry. They just need to run it more often (only 19 carries LW due to being behind) in order to be more effective and set up the passing game. 8* Atlanta |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns +9.5 | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -105 | 93 h 47 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (9:30 AM ET): We all know the Browns are bad (just 1 win in the L2 seasons), but what's particularly jaw-dropping in their run of futility under HC Hue Jackson is that they've covered the Vegas number only five times in 23 games! That includes last week, where they took the Tennessee Titans to overtime, but (of course) lost 12-9 as 5.5-point home underdogs. Meanwhile, Minnesota is starting to emerge as one of the league's most pleasant surprises. They've lost their starting QB, RB and WR1, yet still have somehow found a way to go 5-2 SU and take the lead in the NFC North. As I said last week, they stand to be the biggest beneficiary of the Aaron Rodgers injury (out for year?) in Green Bay. But something else I said last week was that I can't believe the respect the Vikings are now getting in light of all their injuries. They got over me last week (playing at home against Baltimore), but I don't like them laying this many points away from home, even if it is London and against the Browns. Hold your nose and take the points. Now, I'm fully aware that none of the three previous London games have been close this year. The favorite has delivered a lopsided shutout in each of the last two (Rams 33-0 last week) while Jacksonville was a 44-7 winner over Baltimore, as a small dog, in the other. Clearly, that precdent isn't good for Cleveland, but it is worth noting that despite an 0-7 SU record, the Browns have outgained their opposition this year! Their defense ranks in the Top 10 in yards allowed (304.7) and can keep them in games, especially when facing an offense as depleted as Minnesota's is right now. The Vikings come in averaging only 20.9 PPG for the year and that number drops to 14.5 away from home. Prior to last week's win and cover over Baltimore (24-16, -5), Vikings QB Case Keenum was 1-7 ATS all-time as a favorite w/ SIX outright losses, including one at home to Detroit earlier this year. With Keenum under center, RB Dalvin Cook out for the year and WR Stefon Diggs still battling a groin injury, I just can't endorse this team in this price range. Now Cleveland is admittedly a mess and will be going back to rookie QB DeShone Kizer here as HC Jackson grows more and more desperate by the week. Also, Kizer won't have Joe Thomas protecting him anymore as Thomas is done for the year w/ a triceps injury. (Thomas had NEVER missed a snap in his career before last week!). That all being said, the Vikings aren't going to be favored by more in any game this season, not even at home, and hadn't even been asked to lay more than a field goal this year prior to last week. 8* Cleveland |
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10-28-17 | Rockets +1.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -106 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:05 ET): I'm a little bit surprised that the Rockets are off a win here as I though last night's matchup (in Charlotte) would be conducive to defeat. But they won going away, 109-93 as three-point favorites to improve to 5-1 SU on the young season. They are w/o Chris Paul for an indefinite period of time, but remember they didn't have him last year and won 55 games. They've pulled out two come from behind victories in the early going, the first in the season opener at Golden State and then earlier this week at Philly. Early in the season, I don't think back to backs matter as much and in fact, the Rockets look to be underrated in this spot against a Memphis team that just struggled in a home and home w/ lowly Dallas (went 0-2 ATS). I think the wrong team is favored here. The Rockets shot an ungodly 22 of 57 from three-point range in last night's win w/ James Harden going for a triple double as well (27-11-10). They beat a Charlotte team that I have a ton of respect for, even though the Hornets are dealing with multiple unfortunate injuries right now. Now will the Rockets be as prolific from behind the arc this evening? Probably not, but I'm envisioning they won't have to be. Memphis is notoriously one of the weaker three-point shooting teams in the league, even as they move towards the kind of faster pace that has engulfed the modern NBA. In two wins over the Grizzlies last year, the Rockets "doubled up" on points from behind the three-point line, outscoring them 102-51 in that department, Defensively, Houston was strong last night as well, holding Charlotte to 31.3% shooting in the first half, including 4 for 22 from the floor in quarter number two. Memphis, like Houston, has a win over Golden State. But they also just lost at Dallas and then failed to cover against the Mavs in the second game of a home and home Thursday (I had the Mavs plus the points Thurs). They've now failed to break 100 pts in three consecutive games (trouble when playing Houston). This is also a rematch from a 98-90 Memphis' win in Houston from earlier in the week. I cashed Memphis there, but it's important to realize they ended the game on a 20-2 run (won 98-90) after trailing by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter. They were also eight-point underdogs in the contest, so needless to say there's been a dramatic swing in price for the rematch, one that can not be simply explained away by change in venue. The Rockets are the better team here and getting points, I'm on them. 8* Houston |
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10-28-17 | UCLA v. Washington -17 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 73 h 12 m | Show |
8* Washington (3:30 ET): This is most definitely a case of "wrong place, wrong time" for UCLA as #12 Washington is not only coming off its bye, but also an embarrassing loss (to Arizona State) the week prior. Coming into the season, I pegged the Bruins as one of the most likely improved teams in the entire country, but it's become pretty clear to me that HC Jim Mora already has "one foot out the door" in Westwood as does QB Josh Rosen, who would be the #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft if he elected to come out. As for Washington, they can no longer endure any more "slip ups" after the disaster that happened at Arizona State two weeks ago. The Huskies lost that game, 13-7, not even coming close to scoring enough points to cover the 17.5-pt spread. This is an offense averaging 37.9 PPG for the year and they are set to go up against a UCLA defense which is allowing nearly 500 yards per game! Lay the points. UCLA hasn't been good on the road either and quite frankly that's putting things mildly. They're 0-3 SU and ATS away from the Rose Bowl and in those losses to Memphis, Stanford and Arizona, they've given up an average of 51 points per game. Getting back to the defensive woes, that unit has now surrendered 44 or more points four times. Remember that they are one miracle comeback (against Texas A&M) away from being 2-5 SU right now. The Bruins are off a win here, but it came against an Oregon team w/ a backup QB that just can't do much offensively right now. It's not like the Bruins' road woes are anything new either; dating back to last season, they've dropped seven consecutive road games, the last five all coming by double digits. Their last Pac 12 road win came in 2015. Washington only managing seven points against Arizona State was a real head-scratcher that I can't begin to figure out. All I can say is that Tempe is a place no Huskies team has won since 1999, so it must be something in the air there. For the reasons laid out above, I do not see them having much trouble moving the ball or putting it in the end zone here. On the defensive side of the ball, HC Chris Peterson has some injuries to deal with, but the Huskies are allowing an average of only 10.6 PPG this year and still only gave up 13 in the loss to Arizona State despite losing CB Jordan Miller in the game. Yes, Rosen will be the best QB they face all year, but I think this stop unit will be up to the task, especially with them likely "playing from ahead" for the duration of the contest. UCLA has won just one of its last nine games as an underdog and is 1-7 ATS when coming off a Pac 12 win the L3 seasons. 8* Washington |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 8 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (3:30 ET): While this is technically a "revenge game" for the Buckeyes, who lost 24-21 (as 19-point favorites!) in State College last year, one could make the argument that it is the Nittany Lions that come into this year's meeting w/ more of a legitimate gripe as they were the one left out of LY's playoff while Ohio State made it (despite the H2H result) only to get promptly smashed by eventual Nat'l Champ Clemson. So, to me, the revenge factor may be overstated here. However, situationally, is where I find Ohio State to have a the big edge in this Big 10 showdown. They were off last week while Penn State was busy winning a primetime showdown w/ Michigan. That win over Michigan came a lot easier than most (myself included) expected, which I feel has caused a bit of an overreaction by the marketplace. Yes, Penn State is the unbeaten team here, but I still actually have OSU rated higher in my own personal power rankings. I was hoping to get the Buckeyes laying less than a touchdown at the Horseshoe on Saturday and the oddsmakers have granted my wish! Ohio State HC Urban Meyer is an incredible 20-1 SU in his coaching career off a bye w/ five of those victories coming against ranked foes. Keep in mind that it was Penn State off a bye last week against Michigan, so the bye week (especially this time of year) definitely can play a huge role. And yes, Meyer is also 24-10-1 ATS in his career in revenge spots including 10-0 straight up his L10 w/ the average margin of victory coming by an impressive 13 points per game. Let us not forget either that OSU led Penn State last year 12-0, but lost on a blocked FG return for touchdown. The Nittany Lions weren't even ranked at the time! The win has jumpstarted an incredible run where they've lost only one time (Rose Bowl vs. USC) and they're an utterly insane 16-1 ATS their last 17 games. That lone non-cover was the Iowa game earlier this year where they needed a last second TD, but even then they had a 579-273 edge in total yards. But isn't a 16-1 ATS run getting close to a "tipping point" where we'll start to see James Franklin's team start to give some back? I think so. Earlier I mentioned that I still have OSU rated higher in my own power rankings, so I'm not surprised by the line here - at all - and as I alluded to, it should probably be north of a touchdown. Most will disagree w/ me, which is where the (rare) value on the Buckeyes comes into play. Since getting beaten by Oklahoma in the second game of the season, OSU has rolled to five consecutive wins by an average of 42 points per game. QB JT Barrett has certainly gotten back on track w/ a 21-1 TD-INT ratio. He has guided the Buckeyes' offense to four straight games of 54+ points and 500+ total yards. OSU also has a defense to match Penn State's and of course the homefield advantage to boot. 10* Ohio State |
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10-28-17 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina +20.5 | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 70 h 33 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (12:00 ET): Let's just go-ahead and restart "The U is back!" narrative as the 'Canes have emerged as a "darkhorse" playoff contender simply by virtue of still being unbeaten in late October. But as you know, not all unbeatens are created equal and in this case, Miami is simply not at the level of an Alabama or Penn State, or even several one-loss teams (such as Ohio State or Clemson) for that matter. But tip your cap to the job Mark Richt is doing down in Coral Gables as there's a decent chance his Hurricanes will finish the regular season unbeaten thanks to avoiding Clemson, Louisville and NC State entirely, while drawing both Va Tech and Notre Dame at home. This week's game likely will NOT threaten their unblemished won-loss record, but it is a tricky spot as it comes right before those B2B home dates w/ Va Tech and Notre Dame. Can we say look ahead? While Miami is exceeding expectations in year two under Richt, North Carolina has clearly fallen off a cliff for Larry Fedora in 2017. After winning 11 and 8 games respectively the last two seasons, the Tar Heels returned very little of the offense that drove last year's team (most notable loss was QB Mitchell Trubisky) and the result has been a rather ugly 1-7 SU and ATS start w/ the lone win and cover coming at Old Dominion's expense. The nadir of the season may have been last week as they ran into a rested Va Tech team in Blacksburg and got beat 59-7. But that creates some real value on the Tar Heels, who are back home, this week. Injuries are another reason UNC has struggled this year. But w/ little left to play for, I assume they'll treat this Homecoming affair like a bowl game and not roll over for their unbeaten visitor. Miami's unbeaten record is not w/o some very close calls, in fact, their previous three wins have been by a total of 13 points! Last week, they outlasted Syracuse 27-19 (were -18) down in Hard Rock Stadium where they obviously benefited from four Orange turnovers. The week prior was a 25-24 win over Georgia Tech on a last second FG, a game they trailed almost the whole way. Preceding that was another last second win, against Florida State. Following so many close calls and with two much bigger games on deck, it will be easy for "The U" to overlook this game and that could be mean trouble given that the visiting team is on a 5-12 SU run in the rivalry. Last year though, UNC won on the road, 20-13 as a six-point dog. The year before that, right here in Chapel Hill, the Hurricanes lost 59-21. I look for UNC to stay within a generous number. 8* North Carolina |
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10-27-17 | Nets v. Knicks -2.5 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): The sorry Knicks are only winless team left in the league as they've lost their first three games by an average of 15.3 points per game. They're dead last in scoring (93.3 PPG) and speculation has already begun that HC Jeff Hornacek might be fired if they lose this game. So, needless to say, there's a little bit of motivation here. Brooklyn will be welcomed into MSG tonight, fresh off a stunning upset of Cleveland Wednesday night. That marked the Nets' fourth consecutive cover, a streak the likes of which we rarely saw in last season's moribund 20-62 (SU) campaign. In fact, there were only two times all of last year that the Nets covered four consecutive times. Not once did they cover five in a row. So, now seems like a good time to fade them and coincidentally, at the same time, it's a great spot to "buy low" on the Knicks. These area rivals have split the eight H2H meetings the L2 seasons, including a 2-2 mark in 2016-17. The Knicks won the first two last year with the Nets then squaring things away w/ a pair of wins in March. Note that for LY's first meeting, the Nets came in riding a 3-game ATS win streak, were off an upset win (vs. Minnesota) and promptly lost by 14 here at the Garden. It's certainly a bit of a surprise to see them w/ more wins than losses currently, given they lost PG Jeremy Lin on Opening Night. This is a better team compared to LY's version (how could it not be?), but I assure you that the "L's" will begin to pile up. They are just 4-10 ATS the previous two seasons when facing a team averaging less than 98 PPG. The Knicks are still trying to figure things out in this post-Carmelo Anthony era. At least, there's no debate now as to whom their best player is, as Kristaps Porzingis is averaging 25.3 PPG, which is second most in the league! I expect the Knicks' offense to get going tonight as the Nets are not a good defensive team. Despite the surprising 3-2 SU/4-1 ATS start, Brooklyn has allowed at least 107 pts in all five game so far. The Knicks did manage to score exactly 107 in their only home game thus far and I'm not going to put a ton of stock into the two 21-pt road losses seeing as they came against Boston and OKC, who both project as Top 10 teams this year. Brooklyn remains a bottom 10 team and staring at an 0-4 start that would likely get their coach canned, I believe the Knicks come up big here. 10* New York |
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10-26-17 | Stanford -20.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
8* Stanford (9:00 ET): Following disappointing B2B losses to USC and San Diego State, Stanford was just 1-2 SU on the season and in danger of becoming irrelevant. But this remains a Top 20 team in the country, at least in my opinion, and we've started to see what they are capable of w/ a four-game win streak here in Pac 12 play. Two Saturdays ago, the Cardinal took full advantage of Oregon being depleted and won in a 49-7 rout. Now they'll face the Ducks' "Civil War" rival, who is still winless against FBS competition this year and already made a coaching change. That would be Oregon State, the perennial dreg of the conference who has lost seven straight times to Stanford. I'm usually not one to lay a lot of points on the conference road, but I'll make an exception here. Over the course of its four-game win streak, Stanford has outscored its opponents (all of whom are stronger than Oregon State) by an average of nearly 20 PPG. Now that number is obviously skewed by what they did against Oregon, but note the only game during the win streak that was close was the one at Utah, who was rested when the Cardinal were not. Considering Oregon State is already allowing over 200 YPG on the ground this season (and given up 18 rushing TDs) and Stanford has the nation's leading rusher (Bryce Love), this looks to be a mismatch of epic proportions. Now I'm well aware Love is listed as a game-time decision here, but the notion of him and his 10.3 YPC average going against this Beavers' defense is too enticing too pass up. He already has NINE runs of 50+ yards this season and got to rest in the 2H vs. Oregon due to the lopsided nature of the contest. QB Keller Chryst also had his best game since the opener, completing 15 of 21 pass attempts, three of them for touchdowns. Love or not, another reason to like Stanford here is their defense facing an OSU offense that averages almost 50 fewer YPG rushing than Love does by his lonesome! Oregon State did play inspired in its last game, a 36-33 loss to Colorado (as 9.5-pt underdogs) here in Corvallis. But that came right after the surprising resignation of HC Gary Andersen. While interim HC Corey Hall has now had more than a full week to implement his own gameplan, he simply doesn't have a whole lot to work with here. The loss to Colorado marked the first time since beating FCS Portland State that the Beavers finished within 28 points of the opposition. They opened the year 0-5 ATS and are being outscored by 22.5 PPG. Whether it's Love's questionable status or something else, we're getting about nearly a full TD of value with this line on the Cardinal, at least according to my own power rankings. 8* Stanford |
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10-26-17 | Mavs +8 v. Grizzlies | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:05 ET): Suffice to say, the "glory days" are officially over for Mark Cuban's Mavs. I would think that if Dirk Nowitziki and the rest of the current roster walked into the "Shark Tank" studio tomorrow, Cuban would tell them "I'm out." The team got off to a rather ugly 0-4 SU and ATS start to the season, but last night they finally did crack into the win column w/ a 103-94 upset of Memphis (were 3-pt underdogs) at home. Now comes the second game of the home and home w/ the division rival Grizzlies and I'm going to call for the Mavs to cash - as underdogs - again. Obviously, with tonight's game being in Memphis, the oddsmakers are going to be more generous. That's good, because the Grizzlies are not a team I typically like to lay points with, especially this many. Memphis' start to the season was just the opposite of Dallas' as they opened 3-0 SU and ATS. I took them Monday in what turned out to be an upset of Houston on the road (no Chris Paul for the Rockets remember). It is worth nothing though that the Grizz trailed by as many as 10 in the fourth quarter of that game, before storming back to end the game on a 20-2 run! Yes, you have to tip your cap to David Fizdale's team for beating both Golden State and Houston thus far, but both wins came in the underdog role. Some trends that go against Memphis here are that they are 4-17 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive unders and 14-28 ATS off a division game. Last night, it was Dennis Smith Jr leading the way w/ 19 points and five assists for the Mavs in the 103-94 upset. Smith's team never trailed after taking a commanding 32-18 lead after the first quarter. Dallas is now 6-3 SU/ATS the L9 head to head meetings vs. Memphis and will be going for their third straight win and cover tonight. A major plus will be having Chandler Parsons back in the lineup after he was given last night off due to still not being medically cleared to play both games of a back to back. Dallas didn't have nearly the same kind of results against Golden State and Houston that Memphis did, but their other two losses both came by six points or fewer. This is some good early season value on a dog playing the second game of a home and home. 10* Dallas |
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10-25-17 | Jazz v. Suns +6 | Top | 88-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Suns were projected to be at the very bottom of the league and sure enough, there's already been plenty of turmoil in the first two weeks. HC Earl Watson was fired after the team started 0-3, prompting PG Eric Bledsoe to (now infamously) tweet "I don't want to be here anymore." Bledsoe told management that the tweet had nothing to do w/ the team, but rather him being at a hair salon w/ his girlfriend at the time! (Can't make this stuff up). That equivalent of "the dog ate my homework" didn't fool management, who immediately sent him home and it's now likely Bledsoe has played his last game w/ the team. We saw a positive response from those Bledsoe has left behind as Monday brought a 117-115 victory for the Suns (over the Kings). What the ongoing controversy has done here is create a little bit of value on this team. I'm taking the points tonight as they are facing a tired opponent. The opponent in question here is Utah, who started its season 3-0 ATS (2-1 SU). But the Jazz ran into the Clippers Tuesday night and were soundly beaten, 102-84 as five-point road underdogs. A lot of times, at least early in the season, we'll find teams that are undervalued in the second game of a back to back. That's not the case here though w/ Utah favored. The Jazz have not been able to top 100 pts since the season opener and the second of B2B road games isn't a likely spot for them to erase that trend. The current average of 95.8 PPG is second lowest in the league, ahead of only the Knicks. While some came into this year thinking the Jazz could still make the playoffs (8 seed?) despite an exodus of talent, I just don't see it as their division (Northwest) is tough w/ the other four teams all thinking playoffs as well. In addition to Gordon Hayward leaving for Boston, PG Dante Exum is out indefinitely and George Hill also missed last night's game and is listed as questionable for tonight. Give credit to the Suns for the way the played Monday. Yes, they may have won by only two points, but they came out clearly inspired after the coaching change and led by as many as 22 in the first quarter. We see this constantly in the NBA where teams tend to perform a bit better post-HC change as the players are motivated to either improve or maintain their current standing within the organization. Though 0-7 (SU) vs. Utah the previous two seasons, Phoenix has played them tough during this time, particularly last year when they covered all three games. None of the losses came by more than seven points and w/ Utah being both unrested and unable to blow the opposition out, they are prime fade material here. 10* Phoenix |
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10-24-17 | Knicks +9 v. Celtics | Top | 89-110 | Loss | -115 | 16 h 29 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): I cashed a live dog last night (Memphis) and some of the same aspects from that selection are in play here. Boston was a team that made "My Most Overrated List" coming into the year. Yes, the team that finished #1 in the Eastern Conference LY added Kyrie Irving. But they also lost a lot in the offseason and I do not believe the team is better off here in 2017-18. I certainly don't buy them as being better than Cleveland, who they lost to on Opening Night. That loss was made even worse by the horrific injury suffered by Gordon Hayward, who is done for the year. The following night, the Celtics lost in Milwaukee. They did then win for the 1st time, beating Philadelphia (as a dog!) on Friday. But back to the role of favorite tonight, I have little interest in backing them here. Now, it figures to be a long year for the Knicks. They've started 0-2, losing to Oklahoma City and Detroit. The loss to the Pistons, at home, took place Saturday. So, like the Celtics, they're well rested here. Something odd that took place between these Atlantic Division rivals last year is the road team won outright in three of the four meetings.One positive I see for the Knicks this year is that the Carmelo Anthony drama is now over (traded him to OKC), opening the door for Kristaps Porzingis to lead the team. Porzingis has scored 30+ pts in both games so far. No Knick has done that to start a season since Patrick Ewing almost a quarter century ago. Also, note the Knicks jumped out to a 21-pt lead over Detroit Saturday night. Enes Kanter is another player to watch here as he has averaged 13.4 points and 5.9 rebounds per game in his career against Boston. The Celtics have not shot the ball well so far (41.8% overall). Irving has really struggled the L2 games, going 14 for 42 overall including 3 of 12 from three-point range. Marcus Smart missed the Philly game w/ an ankle injury. While he is listed as probable to return here, we know Marcus Morris remains out. With only FOUR players back from LY's team, we knew there would be growing pains in Beantown. The Hayward injury has only exacerbated that and right now I want zero part of laying this many points with them. 8* New York |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:30 ET): The Eagles have made a case that they are the best team in the NFC having started 5-1 (SU) including a nice road win over Carolina last Thursday. The extra prep time here is significant, giving them an advantage they probably didn't need to overcome division rival Washington, a team they defeated back in Week 1, 30-17 on the road. I was on the Eagles there and it's certainly worth noting that they closed as two-point road favorites for that season opening contest. That makes the spread for this rematch certainly look too low given the change in venue. I'll gladly lay the points as Washington struggled to get by a winless San Francisco team last week. This is Washington's second Monday night game in three weeks. The last one, against the Chiefs, ended w/ one of the worst beats in recent memory as what was a tie game in the final minute ended up 29-20 when the Chiefs scored a garbage defensive touchdown in the final seconds. Needless to say, I don't want to rehash that anymore given I was on the Redskins. Philadelphia's only loss this year was to the Chiefs, back in Week 2. While Washington probably deserved better against KC, they were thoroughly outgained by the Eagles back in Week 1, 356-264 and turned the ball over four times. The Redskins are missing two key pieces on defense coming into this rematch, Jonathen Allen on the line and Josh Norman in the secondary. That could mean plenty of trouble against an Eagles offense that is averaging a very healthy 6.1 yards per play its last three games. Philadelphia is also getting back its best offensive lineman, Lane Johnson. Washington also had to sign a new kicker this week after Dustin Hopkins was placed on IR. The Redskins are 0-4 SU and ATS their last four appearances on Monday Night Football. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies +8 v. Rockets | Top | 98-90 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston is 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS) and most impressive of all is they won the last two games w/o the services of Chris Paul. That's after beating the Warriors on opening night. So this is a team certainly coming into Monday w/ a lot of confidence. But tonight they'll be hosting a team that also holds a win over the Warriors, 111-101 as 8.5-pt dogs, that being Memphis. The Grizzlies only have two games under their belt so far, both wins, as they opened w/ a double digit win over New Orleans. This is a team that I expected to regress a bit in 2017, but as an underdog (like they are here), there's probably some value. They've split eight games w/ the Rockets the last two years and I see tonight's Southwest Division matchup being a close one. Take the points. Center Marc Gasol led the way against the Dubs w/ 34 points Saturday. Seven other players also scored in double figures. One of them, Mike Conley, only shot 3 of 14 from the floor. I'd certainly expect him to improve on the offensive end tonight. It was impressive that they held Golden State under 40 percent shooting and even more impressive that they led by as many as 19 points in the third quarter. Houston is w/o Paul (knee) indefinitely and that's eventually got to catch up with them. While they did win big Saturday here at home over Dallas (107-91), their first two wins were both by five points or less. The oddsmakers set lofty expectations for this team (55.5 wins) and even w/ a healthy Paul, I didn't think they'd live up to them. Yes, the components of last year's team are still here - most notably James Harden - and the defense seems to be much improved. They beat Golden State thanks to a rare Warriors' fourth quarter cold streak and the other two wins were against Dallas and Sacramento, two of the very worst teams in the West. I just think this spread is too high. 10* Memphis |
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10-22-17 | Ravens +6 v. Vikings | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (1:00 ET): Imagine this: Minnesota is playing w/o its starting QB, top RB (done for the year), top WR and possibly two starting offensive linemen, yet is favored prohibitively this week. That speaks volumes about the current state of the Ravens, who as noted last week, have the most players on injured reserve in the entire league. That caused me to play against Baltimore in Week 6 as they were laying a significant amt of points (at home) to a seemingly overmatched foe (Chicago). Sure enough, despite two non-offensive scores, they dropped the game outright (in overtime). Now though, the proverbial "shoe" is on the other foot. The Vikings stand to be the biggest beneficiaries of the Aaron Rodgers injury as not only were they the team facing the Packers last week (won 23-10), but they're in the same division and all of a sudden the NFC North doesn't look so tough. It's funny that it was just one week ago that Minnesota appeared to be helpless, even at home, facing Rodgers and Green Bay. As noted above they were w/o their starting QB (Sam Bradford), RB (Dalvin Cook out for year) and top WR (Stefon Diggs). But, my, how things can change in an instant. Anthony Barr's (dirty?) hit on Rodgers broke the former MVP's collarbone and the Vikings would go on to pull the "upset" (were 3-pt home dogs), 23-10. The Pack were helpless w/o Rodgers, failing to score after halftime. For what it's worth, Minnesota only kicked three field goals (no TD's) in the second half. But they're feeling pretty good about the position that they are in at 4-2 straight up. This despite that Bradford, Cook and Diggs all being out again, plus there's a good chance that the left side of the O-line - guard Nick Easton and tackle Riley Reiff - will miss this game. Ask yourself, given the above information, does this sound like a team you'd want to lay points with? Baltimore has its own offensive issues right now, but there's a lot to like about the defense, especially since it looks like DT Brandon Williams is set to return. When the offense isn't turning the ball over and putting the defense in bad positions (like vs. Jacksonville), the Ravens typically don't give up many points. In each of the three wins, they've allowed 17 pts or fewer. I don't think they should be too scared by Vikings QB Case Keenum here. Remember that the first two games saw them force as many turnovers (10) as points allowed! Under John Harbaugh, this is a team that rarely gets blown out (I know they have twice this year) and they're a solid 2-1 ATS as underdogs this season. This figures to be a low-scoring game where you want to take the points. 8* Baltimore |
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10-21-17 | Colorado +10 v. Washington State | Top | 0-28 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 15 m | Show |
8* Colorado (10:45 ET): It's "Pac 12 after dark" and neither of these teams come in playing as well as they'd hoped. Washington State is of course off a horrific 37-3 loss at Cal last Friday, a game which saw them turn the ball over SEVEN times and get dropped from the ranks of the unbeaten. Fact is, I was never really that high on Mike Leach's team anyway. Now the same could be said for Colorado coming into this year as I always viewed LY's run to the Conference Championship Game as a bit fraudulent. The Buffs were able to take advantage of a "down year" in the Pac 12 South and just about everyone had them regressing in 2017. Sure enough, seven games into the season and they've already equaled the number of regular season losses (3) from last year. They've even been a big disappointment at the betting window, covering just one time since a season-opening 17-3 win over in-state rival Colorado State. Disappointing as the season has been so far in Boulder, I see some pretty significant value here w/ the Buffs. As discussed in the analysis last week for plays against Michigan and Auburn, there always seems to be some value in targeting Top 25 teams off a SU loss as the majority of bettors are all too eager to call for the proverbial "bounce back." But in the case of Wazzu, I see not much reason to expect any kind of significant bounce back this week. While they did open the season 6-0 SU, that included close wins here in Pullman over Boise State (trailed by 21 in the fourth quarter and won in 3 OT's!) and USC (who was down three starting offensive lineman). The rest of the schedule has been quite soft to say the least and they got to play Oregon when the Ducks were really banged up. Last year in Boulder, the Cougars fell 38-24 to the Buffaloes as five-point underdogs. I know Colorado isn't as good this year, but I'm not sure I can get on board w/ the pretty massive swing we've seen w/ the line in less than 12 months time. CU's last three games, two of them losses, have all been decided by four points or less. Yes, they did give up 33 points to an inspired Oregon State team (playing for interim HC) last week, but the defense still ranks fifth in the Pac 12 both against the pass and the run. Cal was able to hold Wazzu to just 365 total yards last week w/ an inferior defense. The only team to blow out Colorado thus far was Washington State's Apple Cup rival Washington, who is a much better team. It also should be noted that the Buffs have been favored in all but two of their games thus far, which partly explains some of the ATS struggles to this point. While they didn't cover at home against Washington, they did cover on the road vs. UCLA. Before last year, the visitor had taken four of the five previous meetings in this conference rivalry. CU is on a 9-4 ATS run as the road team while Wazzu is just 1-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 pts. 8* Colorado |
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10-21-17 | Blazers +3.5 v. Bucks | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:35 ET): Coming into the year, there were seven teams that I considered "locks" for the playoffs in the Western Conference: Golden St (obviously), Houston, San Antonio, OKC, Minnesota, Denver and the Clippers. Maybe I should start thinking about making it eight and completing the field as Portland is 2-0 SU w/ a pair of double digit road wins. Now critics can point to who those wins came against, that being Phoenix and Indiana, two of the worst teams in the league. But still, blowing them out by a combined 66 points is quite impressive. Remember the Blazers were the 8-seed last year (lost in 1st round to GSW) and the 5th seed the year before that. I like their chances of making it a perfect 3-0 SU road trip to start the year, as they draw Milwaukee in an ideal spot. Both teams are in the second game of a back to back here. Portland won 114-96 in Indiana Friday while the Bucks lost 116-97 here at home to Cleveland. That Milwaukee loss is likely to have a carryover effect as Bucks fans are thinking their team can be the Cavs' top challenger in the East this season, but last night's game said otherwise. Watching that game, it was pretty clear to me that the Bucks are not a deep team and lean too heavily on Giannis Antetokounmpo. "The Greek Freak" accounted for over one-third of his team's points last night, shooting 15 of 22 from the floor. Everybody else combined to go a woeful 23 of 60 (38.3%). The Bucks are 6-14 ATS the previous two seasons when off a SU loss as a favorite. Their first game saw them be the beneficiary of the opponent (Boston) being off a demoralizing loss, ironically also to Cleveland. Portland opened its year w/ the biggest Opening Night blowout in league history, beating Phoenix by 48 points. Then last night, they again dominated from start to finish, building an 18-point lead after three quarters and then coasting from there. In order to complete the perfect road trip, the Blazers will have to reverse a bit of recent history as they've not won here in Milwaukee since 2013 and were swept in the season series last year. But the two games last year were only decided by a combined 11 pts. Neither time did Portland shoot well, although they actually blew a 58-51 halftime lead in the visit here to the Bradley Center. I believe they will reverse the recent trend and pick up a win. Take the points. 10* Portland |
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10-21-17 | West Virginia v. Baylor +9.5 | Top | 38-36 | Win | 100 | 56 h 30 m | Show |
8* Baylor (8:00 ET): For most of the Big 12's existence, Baylor has been a bottom-feeder, not unlike Kansas. From the birth of the conference until 2007, they were an awful 11-85 SU vs. league opponents. But then came Art Briles and Robert Griffin III and from 2010-15, the program experienced virtually unprecedented success including FOUR 10+ win seasons. But that regime ended last year in utter disgrace due to a variety of severe misdeeds by players and coaches alike. Thus, Matt Rhule (came over from Temple) was stepping into a rather unfortunate situation, even though LY's team clearly underachieved. It's been even tougher than expected so far for Rhule as his Bears have yet to win a game and enter this week at 0-6 SU w/ just two covers to their credit. Only one time in conference play have they been able to stay within single digits of their opponent, ironically against Oklahoma. But I believe the Bears have some fight left in them and will give #23 West Virginia all it can handle Saturday night in Waco. The Bears' three home losses have come by a total of 18 points. Yes, one of them was to Liberty, a FCS program. They also lost to UTSA, a game where they failed to score enough to even cover how much they were favored by (lost 17-10, were -11). But, as mentioned above, they did play Oklahome tough here, losing only 49-41 as 28-pt underdogs. I was impressed there by the fact they rallied back to take a second half lead after initially trailing 14-0 early in the game. Baylor is now a perfect 5-0 ATS as a home dog going back to 2011 and Rhule is 23-9 ATS all-time in his coaching career when priced as a dog w/ 11 outright victories. Watch the number as he's 11-3 ATS as a double-digit dog. Helping Baylor here is the fact that I absolutely hate this spot for WVU, laying points on the road. They are off a wild, come from behind win last week over Texas Tech in Morgantown. They fell behind by as many as 18 early in the second half before storming back to score the game's final 29 points! They were outgained by the Red Raiders, 513-396. Oklahoma State is on deck next week in a huge home game and the players may be looking ahead to that game. That same Oklahoma State team just whipped Baylor last week, 59-16, but I'm willing to foresake that result as the game was in Stillwater and the Pokes were off a bye (admittedly Baylor was too). Somewhat shockingly, the WVU offense only ran for 44 yards last week on a Texas Tech defense that no one will confuse w/ Alabama. Last year in Morgantown, with nothing to play for, Baylor easily covered the 17-spread, losing only 24-21 in a game they initially led 14-3. Since WVU joined the Big 12, the home team is a perfect 5-0 straight up in their meetings w/ Baylor. 8* Baylor |
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10-21-17 | Wake Forest +5.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 6 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (7:30 ET): Georgia Tech enters the week as one of only a handful of teams that has covered the spread in all of its games this season. They're 5-0 ATS to be exact, but in a pretty awful spot this week and thus I see them failing to cover for the first time. Last Saturday saw them suffer a tough 25-24 loss down in Miami, a game that was played two days later than was originally planned due to Hurricane Irma shuffling around "The U's" schedule. It was the Yellow Jackets' second one-point loss of the season, the other coming to Tennessee (doesn't that look bad now?) in the season opener. Now they must turn around and host rested Wake Forest, a team whose defense will certainly keep this one close. Take the points and do so quickly as the line continues to drop. Last week was certainly an advantageous spot for the Yellow Jackets, as they were coming off a bye while Miami was coming off an emotional last second win over rival Florida State. While they blew a 24-13 second half lead, note the Jackets were outgained pretty severely by the 'Canes, (481-281), so the final result was probably deserved. Now it is they (Ga Tech) who must deal with a rested opponent. The bye week is huge for the underdog Demon Deacons here as it allows for extra preparation for the Yellow Jackets' triple-option. Plus, bye or not, they probably already had the necessary defensive personnel to stop the Ga Tech offensive attack. The Deacons rank 16th nationally in rush defense EPA and while they haven't faced the Yellow Jackets since 2010 (really!), they have gone up against similar offenses in Tulane and Army the past several seasons and done well at stopping them. Wake may be 1-2 SU in ACC play, but that's due to the fact they had to play Florida State and Clemson the L2 games. They played the Seminoles very tough in Winston-Salem, even outgaining them 367-270, and had a chance to send the game into overtime on the final play (lost 26-19). Against Clemson, it was back door cover (trailed 28-0), but I though the Deacons played the defending Nat'l Champs closer than the score suggested in Death Valley. Again, Dave Clawson's team has a Top 20 defense nationally in terms of efficency. As a road dog, Clawson has gone a pretty outstanding 9-3 ATS the L3 seasons including an outright win at B.C. (34-10!) back in Week 2. This truly is a wretched spot for Ga Tech, who is not only off its second one-point loss of the year, but also has a date at Clemson next week. Wake Forest will be ready to go and an outright upset is a strong possibility Saturday night in Atlanta. 8* Wake Forest |
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10-21-17 | LSU v. Ole Miss +7.5 | Top | 40-24 | Loss | -130 | 55 h 46 m | Show |
8* Mississippi (7:15 ET): LSU was a nice winner for me last Saturday, but let's not lose sight of the fact that they trailed Auburn 20-0 (at home) before storming back to take the game outright (as 7.5-pt dogs) 26-23. Or the fact they lost at home to Troy. Last week was the first cover for the Bayou Bengals (who wouldn't be denied w/ former HC Les Miles in the house) since the opener against BYU (who still hasn't covered a game this year!). In two "true" road games, they've won by one (17-16 over Florida) and gotten trounced by Mississippi State. I faded them in Starkville (Miss St) and am not about to endorse them as similar road chalk based off one come from behind victory. Take the points here. Like LSU, it was a rare cover for Ole Miss last week as they routed Vanderbilt 57-35 in Oxford. Depending on your result from the previous Saturday (against Auburn), it was either the first or second cover of the season for the Rebels. Regardless, it snapped a three-game losing streak (all on the road). There is no denying the talent on hand here, but the issue was going to be motivation after an ugly divorce from Hugh Freeze right before the season. The word "prostitutes" is never something school officials want to see next to their name! All jokes aside, last week may have seen the Rebels turn a corner. That was (supposedly) a very good Vandy defense that they shredded to the tune of 600 total yards and 57 points last week, led by QB Shea Patterson. The Rebels now actually lead the SEC in passing offense 357.2 YPG by a wide margin. That could spell trouble for an LSU defense that has not seen this amount of talent at the skill positions this season. With four of their next five games here in Oxford (only road game at Kentucky), I can see Ole Miss going on a bit of a late season run. Granted, it wouldn't net them a bowl appearance (ineligible due to Freeze shenanigans), but it would still be a nice way to go out for the seniors who have stuck through and those looking to rebuild the program. Interim HC Matt Luke is still auditioning for a job. As for LSU, I hate this spot as they have a bye week on deck and then the showdown vs. #1 Alabama after that, so the players could be caught looking ahead. HC Ed Orgeron (former HC at Ole Miss) inserted his foot into his mouth earlier this week when he said this game didn't mean much “because the truth is the whole time I was there I was wishing I were here.” It's not like the home dog needed any more motivation after suffering a 38-21 loss (as seven-point dogs) in Baton Rouge last season. That marked the fifth consecutive time in this SEC West rivalry that the home team won, so again, I'm in no rush to lay points w/ the road team here, especially w/ LSU just 2-7 ATS its last nine "true" road games (2-5 as favorite). It's come full circle for them going from decided road favorite (Miss St) to decided home dog (Auburn) and now back again. Meanwhile, Ole Miss seems to be just now hitting its stride w/ Patterson completing 66% of his pass attempts. 8* Mississippi |
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10-21-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic -3.5 | Top | 31-69 | Win | 100 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (5:00 ET): At the start of the season, I said Lane Kiffin was stepping into a good situation here in Boca Raton as he was inheriting the most experienced team in the entire country! Granted, things didn't start out all that well on the scoreboard, but that was to be expected w/ the first two games at Navy and Wisconsin, two teams that right now are a combined 11-1 straight up. Since then, however, the Owls have gone 3-1 w/ the lone loss coming by three points at Buffalo. I cashed them three weeks ago at home against Middle Tennessee where they were in a price range similar to the one here and they won 38-20. That was followed up by a 30-point road win at Old Dominion and then they were off last week, which allows them ample time to prepare for a North Texas team already off B2B upsets. I see the Kiffin renaissance continuing this week. Lay the short number. The last two weeks have seen North Texas upset both Southern Miss and UTSA. They were 7.5-pt dogs at Southern Miss, a game in which they won 43-28, so it could certainly be called an "impressive" victory even though the Mean Green initially trailed 14-0. But last week's 29-26 win over UTSA certainly deserved to be filed in the "improbable" folder. This time, they actually got off to a strong start (led 16-7 after one quarter), but were down 26-22 w/ just over one minute left in the game and 98 yards away from their end zone. What happened next was just incredible. The Mean Grean marched down the field in seven plays, the last of which was a 22-yard TD w/ just 10 seconds remaining. Needless to say, it was one of the most stunning wins of the entire College Football weekend. Despite their 4-2 SU record, North Texas is hardly outscoring foes (4.5 PPG) while FAU - at 3-3 SU - is actually +8.4 PPG. Off a bye, the situation is ideal for the home team while I just don't see how the road dog can summon up the energy again after last week's improbable result. Before the win at Southern Miss, North Texas had lost its first two road games by a total of 39 points. This is a team that had just seven road wins total the previous six seasons, three of those coming in the 9-4 SU season in 2013. FAU is rested and ready to go here and armed w/ some revenge after losing both previous visits from the Mean Green (four straight losses to UNT overall). This offense is good as it has topped 30 pts in three consecutive games and averaging 430 YPG for the season. I feel this line is off by a touchdown. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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10-21-17 | Indiana +7 v. Michigan State | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 7 m | Show |
8* Indiana (3:30 ET): Michigan State is 3-0 SU in Big 10 play, but all three wins have come by seven points or less. Now I know the Sparty faithful are going to be quick to point out last week's "backdoor" situation against Minnesota when they were up 30-13 in the 4Q, only to give up two late touchdowns and lose the cover (were four-point favorites on the road). But what about the week prior when they stunned Michigan (again!) at The Big House, winning 14-10 courtesy of a +5 turnover margin, which in turn nullified them gaining only 252 yards on offense? Meanwhile, Indiana covered for me last week (had them +7.5), but for the vast majority of bettors, they fell short (again) against Michigan, losing in overtime. An 0-3 ATS record vs. Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan is downright criminal considering how well IU played those teams (well, at least 2 of the 3) and it's about time they finish one of these games proper. This could very well be an upset, but I'll take the points. Like many of the other top teams in the Big 10, Michigan State has been played tough by Indiana. But the Hoosiers have not beaten the Spartans in B2B seasons since '93-'94, which was the ONLY time they've done it since 1969! They'll be going for history Saturday as last year, they did pull the upset (in a similar price range), 24-21 in overtime (I was on them). At no point in that game was IU not covering. Their last visit to East Lansing resulted in a highly misleading final of 52-26 as it was only a two-point game in the 4Q before an insane confluence of events conspired against them. From '93 to '14, Indiana appeared in only one bowl game ('07), but now the program is on a better trajectory as they're looking to make it three straight postseasons. Holding onto the "Ol' Brass Spittoon" would be a nice trophy en route. Entering this game at 3-3 SU, Indiana might very well have to pull an upset as the majority of their remaining "winnable" games are on the road. Rutgers at home is probably a lock. So they probably have to split the four road games against Mich St, Maryland, Illinois and Purdue. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 5-1 SU, but could easily be 3-3 SU. It will be interesting to see how Mark Dantonio's young roster responds to being in the favorite role moving forward. Prior to last week, the Spartans had not scored more than 18 points in over a month, which obviously makes it difficult to like them as chalk, no matter how good the defense is. Indiana's offense (redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey now starting) will be the best that they've faced since Notre Dame (only loss) and their defense comes in a little underrated (seventh overall in Big 10, fourth against the pass). With three conference wins by a total of 14 pts and a suspect offense, Michigan State is prime fade material here. 8* Indiana |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 48 h 32 m | Show |
8* Texas (12:00 ET): The Tom Herman era in Austin started not w/ a bang, but rather a whimper as his Longhorns were stunned in the season opener, losing 51-41 to Maryland (trailed 30-14 at half, but finished w/ 26-18 edge in FD's). But it turns out that result was the exception and not the rule as the Longhorns have covered every game since! Now they're just 3-3 SU overall having also lost to USC and Oklahoma. But both of those games were close and could have gone either way against favored and highly ranked opponents. Oklahoma State obviously presents a challenge, particularly on the offensive side of the ball, but Herman has the Texas defense playing at a high level and I think they'll be up for it. I'm taking the points and won't be surprised if it ends up as an outright upset! Oklahoma State comes in ranked #1 in the country in total offense at 610.7 YPG and #2 in scoring at 48.8 points per game. Their top two receivers - James Washington and Marcell Ateman - have both posted four straight 100 yard games, becoming the first duo to do so since 1996! Last week, the Pokes whitewashed Baylor 59-16, which was not much of a surprise considering they were off a bye and the game was in Stillwater. Shockingly, OSU has won each of its last four trips into Austin, the longest such streak by any visitor in the HISTORY of Texas football! But the Longhorns' defense just fared pretty well against an Oklahoma offense which came into the game ranked ahead of OSU in total offense. They held the Sooners to just nine points after halftime in what was a failed come from behind attempt. Coming into this season, I viewed these teams as likely to trend in opposite directions compared to 2016. Texas was a lock to improve under Herman following LY's disappointing 5-7 SU finish under Charlie Strong. There were 17 starters back, 10 on defense, and the team actually played much better than that 5-7 record indicates. They lost five games by a TD or less, three of them when favored. Also, they actually outgained Big 12 opponents despite a 3-6 conference record! Earlier, I mentioned that Texas has covered every game since the opener (5-0 ATS) and Herman is now 7-0 ATS his L7 times as a dog w/ five outright wins! The Longhorns led both USC and Oklahoma in the fourth quarter and it's about "high time" that they win one of these close ones. I know everyone loves this OK State offense, but they were held in check by a TCU defense (at home) that isn't as good as the one they'll face Saturday. It's easy when you can throw the ball all over the field against inferior opposition, but that will not be the case here. 8* Texas |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion +10 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 51 h 23 m | Show |
8* Old Dominion (6:00 ET): Old Dominion has "accomplished" something that's hard to do and that's lost four straight games by 30 or more points. The scores have been 53-23 (North Carolina), 38-0 (Va Tech), 58-28 (Fla Atlantic) and last week, 35-3 (Marshall). Now we all expected (at least I did) some regression from the Monarchs this season considering they aren't as experienced and were unlikely to have the same turnover margin as last year (+13). But, remember, this team won TEN games in 2016. So, it's definitely "hard times" down in Norfolk and things get no easier this week w/ a visit from the presumed C-USA East favorite Western Kentucky. For ODU, this is a revenge shot from their lone league last year, which came by 35 points in Bowling Green. They were only 13-pt dogs on the road there, so you can see how perception has swung in a year's time. As ugly as ODU's recent performances have been, I'll take the points here. Up until last week, Western Kentucky had not covered a spread this season (favored in every game so far). But they rolled up over 600 yds total offense on Charlotte (one of the worst teams in the entire country) in a 45-14 win as 17.5-pt chalk. The schedule has not been challenging to this point as the Hilltoppers have faced only one opponent ranked higher than 100 in my own personal power rankings (LA Tech) and they lost to them, by one, at home. They also lost at Illinois, which you normally wouldn't penalize them for, but the Fighting Illini are the worst Power 5 team in the country, and the Hilltoppers were favored there. Despite the weak schedule, WKU is only outgaining its opponents by 30 YPG this season. WKU has won all three meetings vs. ODU, most of them high-scoring. In fact, the lowest scoring Hilltopper effort of the three was 55 points! But the offense isn't as prolific this year w/ former HC Jeff Brohm having gone to Purdue. They're averaging only 25.5 PPG through six games and the two road games (Illinois, UTEP) have seem them scored just 22 TOTAL! Old Dominion is hardly an offensive juggernaut, but a front seven that was thought to be the strength of the team coming into the year, has underachieved drastically. Note that last week, the Monarchs trailed Marshall only 14-3 entering the fourth quarter. They are on an 8-3 SU in conference home games, including 4-0 last season. It hasn't helped that they've yet to win the turnover battle in any of their games this season. RB Ray Lawly will return to the Monarchs' lineup this week and that will surely help the offense. 8* Old Dominion |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oakland (8:25 ET): Coming into the year, this was certainly a game the Raiders had "circled" on their schedule. There were two deciding factors in the Chiefs winning the AFC West and not the Silver and Black last season, despite both finishing w/ identical 12-4 SU records. One was Raiders QB Derek Carr getting hurt before the final game. The second was Kansas City sweeping the season series. Overall, KC has now won five straight over Oakland and will be favored to make it six in a row Thursday night. As much as they were probably looking forward to this game, the Raiders will take a win over anybody right now as they've dropped four in a row, failing to cover the spread every time. So this game now has an even greater importance for them. The Chiefs are also off a loss here, their first of 2017, as they were beaten at home by Pittsburgh last week. I'm going to take the points here. Oakland came into this season on the short list of teams expected to challenge New England for AFC supremacy. I didn't buy it as this team was extraordinarily fortunate in 2016 by going 8-1 SU in one-score games and finishing tied (w/ the Chiefs!) for the league's best turnover differential. Also, their regular season point differential of +31 was the lowest EVER for a team finishing w/ 12 or more wins. But, circling back to this game, I would not have thought (coming into the year) that the Raiders would be a home dog in this spot. Part of it is the Chiefs' hot start and part of it is obviously their own four-game slide. But there is no denying this team is much better w/ Carr in the lineup and while he's missed only one game due to a back injury, his absence at least partly explains why the team is currently on a four-game losing streak. Note that the last time the Raiders lost four in a row (2014), they responded w/ a Thurs night home win over these Chiefs! KC hasn't lost many AFC West games since that Thursday night affair three years ago. In fact, they won 12 straight division games, going 9-3 ATS in the process. They entered last week almost universally hailed as the best team in the league, but as mentioned before, were beaten at home by the Steelers 19-13. They were pretty thoroughly dominated as well, getting outgained 439-251. The 28 yards rushing on only 15 carries was a real "eye-opener." This game may very well come down to turnovers. The Chiefs lead the league in TO margin the L3 seasons and haven't given the ball away since their first offensive play from scrimmage this season! Alex Smith has gone 202 attempts w/o throwing an INT. Meanwhile, the Raiders are just the third team in NFL history not to record a single INT in the first six games! Something has to give here, right? I know the success road teams are having this season (5-1 SU on Thurs nights too), but this is a desperate home dog playing for its season. Kansas City may be down two starting offensive linemen here. 10* Oakland |
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10-19-17 | Knicks +12 v. Thunder | Top | 84-105 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
8* New York (8:05 ET): In an attempt to compete w/ the historically great Warriors, OKC has elected to join the "super team" fad, adding both Paul George and Carmelo Anthony in the offseason. Alongside Russell Westbrook, that triumverate will be among the most talented "Big 3" any team has outside of Oakland. But the negative of that is you're going to see inflated lines such as this one. Thus, there will often be value in FADING the Thunder, especially early on when all the new pieces are learning to gel. The Knicks being the opponent in tonight's season opener works two ways. Yes, no one is expecting anything from the Knicks this year. But because of that the line is even more inflated than I thought it would be and I'll gladly grab a double digit spread in Game 1. The Knicks have been a complete disaster even before Phil Jackson was foolish handed the keys to the organization. They are coming off B2B 50+ loss seasons and bordering on being irrelevant. However, with Anthony now gone, maybe they can now perhaps concentrate on moving forward? It was a winless preseason, but that hardly matters. Kristaps Porzingis was the Knicks' best player last year and w/ Anthony gone, he has an even better chance of individual success due to losing a ball-dominant teammate. The Anthony trade netted Enes Kanter, who is another good player. Again, I'm not so crazy to think NY can win this game outright, but the points are plentiful, particularly for a first game. For OKC, I like the George addition, but Anthony and Westbrook playing together will certainly be interesting. Both are ball dominant players and "this just in" ... there's only one ball. Westbrook carried the Thunder to 47 wins last season, so I do understand the projection of 54.5 for this season. But not sure they'll quite get there. It's a tough Northwest Division that they play in, plus I have them ranked as only the fourth best team in the West, behind Golden State, Houston and San Antonio. Depth is still a bit of a concern. The team had a (ever so slightly) negative efficiency rating last year (allowed more points per 100 possessions than they scored) and ranked only 17th offensively despite all of Westbrook's individual accolades. Going from one player (Westbrook) "carrying the load" to sharing the burden w/ two other former All-Stars is going to be a transition for the mercurial Westbrook and I just do not expect the Thunder to be a "well oiled machine" this early in the season. Anthony may try and "press" (to the detriment of the team) given that he's facing his former team here. 8* New York |
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10-19-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 11-1 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): The World Series Champs stayed alive last night w/ a 3-2 win in Game 4, thus snapping a six-game losing streak to the Dodgers and handing LA its first loss this postseason. But most will feel it was just "delaying the inevitable" as tonight finds Dodger Blue a decided favorite w/ Clayton Kershaw on the mound. However, this isn't Chavez Ravine and this isn't the regular season, meaning the NL's likely Cy Young winner could be had here. Neither of Kershaw's playoff starts thus far have been quality, which is the continuation of a somewhat disturbing trend that has seen him pitch decidedly subpar come playoff time (throughout his career). Since rejoining the rotation in September (missed all of August due to injury), Kershaw has been mediocre at best w/ a 4.38 ERA and 1.333 WHIP his last seven starts. The Cubs' offense has not shown much in this series as all seven runs have come off six home runs (one was a 2-run shot). They are batting just .172 in the playoffs. That's not good. But what is good news is the fact the Kershaw has been susceptible to the long ball of late. He allowed FOUR solo home runs in his LDS start vs. Arizona and has given up at least one HR in seven consecutive outings. Opposing hitters are batting an incredible .538 on Kershaw's first pitch and four of those hits have been HR's. So, I expect the Cubs' hitters to be aggressive in this game. The "added insurance" that the RL provides is another nice luxury. Remember that the Cubs did beat Kershaw right here in Wrigley in Game 6 of LY's NLCS, which allowed them to advance to the World Series. Pitching for the Cubs tonight will be Jose Quintana, a lefty like Kershaw, who has been his team's most profitable starter in 2017. He lost opposite Kershaw in Game 1, but before that the team had won his previous seven starts. He still sports a 2.30 ERA and 0.884 WHIP his L7 starts, better numbers than Kershaw over that same span. Consider he was a +165 ML dog for that Game 1 matchup, so there seems to be some value here for the rematch at home. The Cubs caught some bad breaks in Games 2 and 3 and really weren't dominated to the degree that it's been made out to be. I absolutely can see them winning this game and forcing the series to go back to LA. But the safer call is to say they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5) |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -3 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:00 ET): Houston is still "picking up the pieces" from an embarrassing 45-17 loss at Tulsa on Saturday (were 14-pt favorites). I was on the Golden Hurricane in that game, and while I believed an outright upset was a distinct possibility, that final score took even me aback. It was a close game most of the way (total yardage virtually even) and UH even led 10-7 at the half! But Tulsa was not to be denied in the second half, scoring on each of its six drives! Two turnovers, one a fumble that was returned for a TD very late in the game, made the final score far more lopsided than it "should" have been. Of course, one of the reasons I played against the Cougs there is I thought they might be looking ahead to this game, an AAC West showdown w/ #25 Memphis. Memphis comes in as one of THREE AAC teams currently ranked in the top 25 (UCF, USF). However, they are the "dreaded" ranked underdog against an unranked foe here. The Tigers come in averaging just over 40 PPG and can claim victories over UCLA and Navy. Their only loss was a rescheduled affair at UCF when they were blown out on the road, 40-13. Their only other road game so far came the following week at hideous UConn. So that's something to make a note of. I figured this team would compete for the AAC West crown as they came into the year as the most experienced group in the entire conference. However, they've been a little bit fortunate w/ three wins by eight points or less, two of them by a field goal (UCLA, Navy), Last week's win over the Midshipmen was greatly aided by forcing FIVE turnovers. The final one (an INT) preserved the 30-27 victory as Navy was driving for the potential game-tying (or winning) score. Given they forced five turnovers, you would think the Tigers would have won by a more comfortable margin. Bad news for them here is the fact they are 3-9 ATS when off B2B SU wins and 3-10 ATS when facing an opponent that has a winning record. This is a big revenge spot for UH as they lost last year up in the Liberty Bowl, 48-44 as six-point favorites. They actually trailed by 17 at halftime before storming back and taking their first lead (37-34) w/ just over seven minutes left. The teams then exchanged touchdowns, again leaving the Cougars up three, this time w/ just 89 seconds remaining. But, they then gave up a 5-play, 72-yard drive, which ended in a touchdown for Memphis w/ just 19 seconds left. The previous year, Houston had to pull off a 20-point comeback here at home just to win 35-34 as five-point favorites (both teams were ranked). I don't see Major Applewhite's team falling into such a big hole this time around. Take away sack yardage and the Memphis defense is currently surrendering 242 yards per game on the ground. That ranks 114th nationally and every FBS opponent has gained at least 150 (over land) against them. So Houston should be able to move the ball effectively here (plus Memphis just had to dismiss a DL due to rape charges) and a Thursday night home game w/ revenge is motivation enough to put them over the top (UH is 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS L5 Thursday games) 8* Houston |
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10-18-17 | 76ers v. Wizards -7 | Top | 115-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Philadelphia, believe it or not, was the top ATS team in the league a year ago as they finished 49-33 at the betting window. That and all the young talent they've accumulated during this rebuilding process have them as a VERY trendy playoff pick for this season, which would be quite the remarkable achievement given they have not won more than 30 games any of the previous four campaigns. To me, their ceiling is the 8-seed, which only speaks to the lack of depth in the Eastern Conference. One of them teams that will assuredly finish above them is LY's Southeast Division Champs, the Wizards, who went 49-33 in the regular season before bowing out to the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Wiz did lose outright twice to Philly last year, but both of those games were on the road. Here at home, they beat them by 16 pts. |
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10-18-17 | Heat v. Magic +3 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:05 ET): I'm a bit surprised that - in some circles - the Magic are being discussed as a potential playoff darkhorse (for the 8-seed only). But that only speaks to the current state of the Eastern Conference. There certainly does seem like a logical argument for them to finish in the top eight as there are only seven teams likely to finish w/ winning records and this will be the first time in a LONG time the Magic aren't projected to be a last place team. (That dubious distinction belongs to Atlanta this season). I don't think they'll make it, mind you, but for tonight's season opener, there is plenty of value to be had w/ them as a home dog to rival Miami. The Magic have actually played the Heat tough the L2 seasons, splitting eight games, including taking three of four last year. Take the points here. Miami is one of the seven teams you have to think will make the playoffs in the East. Last year, they finished tied for the 8th spot (at 41-41) and had the 5th best point differential in the conference at +1.1 PPG. But they lost a tiebreaker to the Bulls and did not make the "tournament." This is now a "new era" on South Beach as Dwyane Wade joined his buddy LeBron James in Cleveland. The issue last season was that the Heat dug themselves too big of an early season hole. They did beat Orlando on Opening Night, 108-96 (as a three-point road dog), but would proceed to drop 30 of the next 40 games. Even a 13-game SU/ATS win streak that took place right before the All-Star Break was for naught. Looking at the actual matchup, Orlando has to be better defensively than they were a year ago. Defense was HC Frank Vogel's calling card in Indiana, so I do expect them to improve on that end of the floor. This was the league's worst ATS team a year ago, odd because it's not as if they're favored much. But I look for a far better performance at the pay window this year. I find it interesting that despite being a better team this year, they've gone from a three-point home favorite to a three-point home dog against the same opponent in consecutive season openers. Thanks to that 13-game win streak, Miami finished near the top of the league's ATS standings, but if you take that one run out, they were basically an average team at the betting window and very subpar overall. They were a road favorite only seven times in 2016-17. Look for the Magic to surprise here. 10* Orlando |
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10-18-17 | Astros v. Yankees +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Yankees (5:00 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Yankees at +1.5. Could the Bronx Bombers possibly pull off the same "trick" twice in row? It sure looks like it. For the second consecutive series, the Yanks have rallied back from an 0-2 hole to tie things up. But whereas that put them in position to "only" have to take a winner take all contest in Cleveland in the LDS, here it's down to best two out of three vs. Houston. For the record, New York did finish w/ a better regular season run differential than the Astros (+198 to +196) and despite losing 7 of 11 head to head matchups to them this season, it's been the team wearing pinstripes that actually has the edge in runs scored (57-52). Game 5 features a rematch of Game 1's starting pitching battle between Keuchel and Tanaka. While the former came out on top the first go-around, the latter is better suited for success in his own park this time. The Astros' offense (#1 in MLB during the reg season) has gone curiously quiet in this series, scoring just nine runs in four games. Last night's loss dropped them to 0-6 this season when priced as a road dog of +125 to +175. Thus, a matchup w/ the red-hot Masahiro Tanaka seems ill-timed right now. Tanaka has turned in three consecutive quality starts, two of them here in the postseason. During that time, he's allowed just two runs on 10 hits in 20 IP. He has a 25-2 KW rate. Houston was baseball's road team in the regular season, but w/ the way they're (not) hitting right now, I'm not sure if that's relevant to the discussion at hand. Even though four of their nine runs scored in the series came yday, they were -9 in total bases (15 to 6) and have yet to win a game by more than one run in this ALCS. Tanaka has a sterling 0.980 WHIP at home this season (and an 11-5 TSR). Keuchel was dominant in Game 1 of this series, but that was also at Minute Maid Park where he sports a 2.03 ERA and 0.937 WHIP. On the road, both his ERA & WHIP jump considerably. Both of his playoff starts so far have come at home and the last time he started on the road against a non-division opponent was 8.8! I find it interesting that Keuchel's TSR outside of the AL West is only 7-5 this year. He did win here at Yankee Stadium back in May, giving up only an unearned run in 6 IP, but it was of the one-run variety and that's a result we can take tonight. Given the way "momentum" has shifted in this series, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a real "steal." 8* Run Line NY Yankees (+1.5) |
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10-17-17 | Celtics v. Cavs -3.5 | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Batten down the hatches here as we have a rematch of LY's Eastern Conference Finals w/ Kyrie Irving having "switched sides" from Cleveland to Boston. Needless to say, emotions will be running high at the Quicken Loans Arena Tuesday night. My play on the Cavs does come w/ a rather giant caveat, that being if LeBron James doesn't suit up, the play is off. So, please, be sure to pay attention to the news throughout the day and as soon as I hear something definitive, I'll try and provide an update. But assuming King James does play, then I feel the emotion of opening the season at home against a hated rival will carry his team to the SU win and cover. Lay the short number (again, provided James plays). It's not just Irving, but Boston has a LOT of new faces this year. It's quite rare to see a team that finished #1 in its conference totally remake its roster, but that's precisely what GM Danny Ainge did here. He shipped his best player (Isaiah Thomas) to Cleveland in order to get Irving. That deal also saw the Celtics have to part ways w/ Jae Crowder, a key interior presence and defender. It's now the Cavs that will benefit from his services. Ainge also signed Gordon Hayward, off a career-year in Utah (21.9 PPG), to a big deal. Having a lot of "shiny" new pieces always seems fun on paper, but don't be surprised if the Celtics underachieve in 2017-18. I say that knowing full well that LY's team ranked only 3rd in net efficiency in the East, behind Cleveland and Toronto. Last year's group was built to overachieve. To me, this year's group will be just the opposite. They have just FOUR returning players from 2016-17. They're going to miss Avery Bradley for sure. Certainly, I don't see this team matching LY's league-best 29-18-2 ATS record on the road. Cleveland also has a lot of new faces. In addition to getting Thomas and Crowder in the Irving trade, they signed Dwyane Wade (LeBron's best buddy) and Derrick Rose. Both those players are probably "over the hill" and won't mean much to the pointspread, but at least Wade will keep James happy. The starting lineup will also be different w/ both Tristan Thompson and JR Smith relegated to bench roles. Neither may be happy about it, but the team is better served this way. (Wade, likely at James' behest, took over Smith's starting role at SG). Kevin Love now plays center, meaning it's a smaller lineup, but that's when the Cavs are at their best. They shredded Boston in LY's ECF to the tune of 120.4 PPG. Again, provided LeBron plays, I'm "all in" on the Cavaliers here. For the record, J.R. Smith is on record as saying James is "gonna go." 8* Cleveland |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (8:25 ET): This AFC South has been incredibly one-sided dating back to when Peyton Manning still played for the Colts. The Titans have lost 11 in a row to Indy, the last win coming back in 2011, which was the year before the Colts drafted Andrew Luck (Manning injured). Going back further, Tennessee is just 1-16 SU the last 17 meetings! They are only 2-9 ATS during the 11-game losing streak. But, 2017 just "feels" like the time for the Titans to start turning this division rivalry around. As we know, it won't be Manning or Luck under center Monday night for the Colts, rather it will be Jacoby Brissett. As for Tennessee, they thankfully get Marcus Mariota back after basically a two-game absence (inj early in Houston game) that went very poorly for the team to say the least. While both teams come in at 2-3 SU, the Titans' scoring differential is much better and that's with the 57-14 loss to the Texans two weeks ago! Lay the points. The Colts went out and acquired Brissett immediately after a disastrous 46-9 loss to the Rams in Week 1. He's led them to a 2-2 SU record, but let's put that record in its proper perspective. The wins came against Cleveland and San Francisco, who are a combined 0-12 SU and both came by just a field goal (49ers win required OT) at home. So this team is a lot closer to being winless than they are a viable contender in the division. They're being outgained by a NFL-worst 95.4 yards per game w/ their two previous road games being absolutely atrocious as they were outscored by a combined 92-27. The offensive line struggles to protect Brissett (sacked 14x) and the defense just isn't very good. Really, we're learning just how valuable Andrew Luck has been to this team the last few years as this is a really poor roster overall. Tennessee came into this season thinking playoffs, but the Mariota injury has really dampened things. Remember though, with him in the lineup, this team did whip an improved Jacksonville team on the road and beat the Seahawks here at home. Note that if Mariota is unable to go, this play still stands as you'll be able to get a significantly better number. The Titans' defense allowed only 178 yards last week (yet the team still lost!) and I don't see them giving up much here to a Brissett-led offense. The last two games w/ Mariota in at QB, the Titans topped 30 pts both times. This game is a really huge deal for Tennessee as it's not only a rare MNF appearance, but also a very opportune time to snap their long losing streak against a hated divisional foe. 10* Tennessee |
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10-16-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
8* Run Line Houston (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Astros at +1.5. Even at "juiced up" odds, the RL feels like a "safe" value here w/ what is - clearly - the better of the two teams. I say that with all the respect in the world for what the Yankees have done this year as they actually underachieved in the regular season (had 2nd best run differential) and rallied back from a similar 0-2 deficit in the LDS against Cleveland. But, to me, the Astros just seem better in all facets of the game. Behind Dallas Keuchel, they dominated Game 1 (even though the final score was only 2-1) and then won Game 2 by the same score in walkoff fashion. Off B2B one-run wins, Houston will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the +1.5. Houston is now 7-2 this year vs. the Yankees this season, although the number of runs scored are basically even at 47-43 (Houston's favor). Tonight is obviously a "must win" for the team wearing pinstripes, but as we all know, that doesn't mean they "will" win. Returning to the Bronx would normally be a big advantage for the Yankees as they happen to own baseball's best home run differential at +1.8 rpg. But, unfortunately for them, Houston happens to own the best road run differential in the sport and it's not even close at +1.4 rpg. (only one other team, Cleveland, was above 1.0). The Astros offense even averages more rpg on the road (6.1) than the Yankees do here at home (5.8). As has been been given much attention, the Yankees are striking out A LOT this postseason, including 27x already in this series. Rookie phenom Aaron Judge continues to be the biggest offender w/ 19 in 31 AB's! Meanwhile, Houston's top hitter (the likely MVP Jose Altuve) is batting .565 so far in the postseason. CC Sabathia pitched pretty well in both of his LDS starts, but he also can't go deep into games anymore. Just once since the All-Star Break has he made it past the sixth. His 9-0 KW rate in Game 5 vs. Cleveland was tremendous, but it's something that I don't feel is repeatable, especially here against MLB's top lineup. Remember Houston finished the reg season ranked #1 in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging. Sabathia should feel fortunate to have a 10-3 TSR this year at Yankee Stadium as his ERA/WHIP are 4.20/1.227. The Astros counter w/ Charlie Morton, who may share Sabathia's penchant for abbreviated starts, but he also has a 3.11 ERA his L7 starts, never once allowing more than 3 ER in any start during that span. Sorry Yankees fans, I just don't see any significant edge your team has over the Astros that would justify taking them in this spot. 8* Run Line Houston (+1.5) |
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10-15-17 | Cubs +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -155 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi Cubs (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs +1.5. I laid off Game 1, in part, because the defending World Series Champs were facing Clayton Kershaw on the road. However, that turned out to NOT be the problem. Albert Almora, Jr hit a 2-run HR off Kershaw, giving the Cubs an early, but temporary, 2-0 lead. The Dodgers would then tie the game in the bottom of the fifth and subsequently take a 3-2 lead after six. The game then swung in the seventh where a controversial call at home plate (Catcher Contreras called for blocking) opened the door for two more Dodgers' runs. The Cubs are now 0-4 here in Chavez Ravine this season, but I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. Take the +1.5. With some question over the state of the bullpen, Chicago needs a quality start here from Jon Lester. Fortunately, that's exactly what they got from him in the LDS, though they would go on to lose that game to the Nats, 6-3. But don't pin that on Lester as he allowed just one run on two hits in six innings of work. He did work Game 4 of the LDS as well, throwing 51 pitches, which means he's working here on only three days' rest. But his L3 starts have all been superb as he's given up just 2 ER (both on solo HR's!) in 17 IP. He's allowed all of 11 hits during that span as well. In last year's NLCS, Lester posted a 2-0 team start record against the Dodgers, a series that the Cubs won in six games. Remember, it's VERY rare for the Cubs to be ML underdogs. Yesterday marked just the 25th time (in 167 games) that it happened all season! So there's value to be had here. The Dodgers turn to Rich Hill, who was waiting in the wings LY to pitch a Game 7 that never happened. That's because the Cubs beat Kershaw in Game 6 and advanced to the World Series. Hill has pitched well at home most of the season, not surprising seeing as Dodgers Stadium is #1 for visitor run suppression this season. But in his LDS start, he lasted only four innings. Sure he gave up only two runs on three hits, but three walks and a home run allowed were among the concerning things I saw there. Hill did not face the Cubs in the regular season. After that somewhat rocky finish to the regular season, the Dodgers have yet to lose here in the playoffs (won 6 in a row overall). But despite their home dominance in the regular season, they are just 13-11 as a ML favorite of -125 to -175. That's the range they find themselves tonight and in a game that qualifies as a "toss-up" to me, I'm grabbing the added insurance that the run line provides. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs |
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10-15-17 | Bucs v. Cardinals +2 | Top | 33-38 | Win | 100 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:05 ET): The David Johnson-less Cardinals have been a disappointment so far (yet to win a game in regulation!), particularly at the betting window where they are 0-5 ATS (league's only winless team ATS). But here they draw a Tampa Bay team that I was never as high on as everyone else seemed to be, and are getting points to boot, at home. Last week's 34-7 loss to Philadelphia was undoubtedly ugly, but it was also on the road against a very good team. Tampa Bay came into 2017 overrated, at least in my opinion, as they were outscored (-15 pt diff) despite a 9-7 SU record and were a league-high +6 in net upsets (were only favored three times all season!). This year, the burden of expectations may have caught them as they're only 1-3 at the pay window. I'm taking the points here and expect Arizona to win. Even this year, at only 2-2 SU, the Bucs seem to be overachieving. They're being outgained by 22 yards per game. Looking at their two wins, one was a turnover-fueled situation against Chicago and the other came on a last second FG against the winless Giants. The defense made Case Keenum look like a viable NFL starter back in Week 2, allowing him to complete 25 of 33 pass attempts in a 34-17 loss to the Vikings. Last week, despite a season-high in total yardage, I was disappointed (but not surprised) that the offense managed only 14 pts against a New England defense that had really been struggling. Yes, I know the kicking game was a MAJOR issue in that Thursday night affair, but that's nothing new and special teams are a legit concern here. There were also six drives of four plays or less for the Bucs' offense. The Bucs' defense is far from healthy right now as four starters are less than 100 percent. Arizona is outgaining its foes by 15 YPG and thus due for better results, especially considering they actually LED THE LEAGUE in YPG differential last year (+61.6). In fact, that 7-8-1 SU record from 2016 could qualify as totally misleading seeing as the Cards also outscored opponents by 56 points, which was more than all but SIX teams in the entire league! Now, it's pretty apparant that QB Carson Palmer is at "14:59" of his career and ultimately, the Adrian Peterson trade won't mean much. But I'm staunchly of the opinion that the Cardinals are better than their results over the L21 games while TB isn't as good as it's been made out to be. The Arizona offensive line is also getting healthy, which is key. This team isn't a home dog often and presents a pretty substantial value play here considering they crushed the Bucs LY, 40-7, on this field. 10* Arizona |
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10-15-17 | Rams v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 28 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (4:05 ET): This is a really interesting matchup between surprisingly good teams. When I started to handicap it, I figured I'd come out leaning towards the Rams as they outgained Seattle in a close loss last week. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's 30-9 win over Pittsburgh may not have been as impressive as it looked considering basically three plays decided that game, two of them being pick six's that went their way (Ben Roethlisberger threw 5 INT's overall). However, when I ran my power rankings, it turns out that Jacksonville is actually being underpriced here. They lead the NFL in point differential (stunning!) and should be closer to a touchdown favorite, in my opinion. Don't discount the impact playing Seattle still has on a team the following week. Lay the short number. Most will call Jacksonville's 3-2 start "surprising" and while I'm inclined to agree, prior to the season starting, the majority of metrics did indicated that there would be improvement here. For starters, the turnover battle was "due" to start going their way. In 16 games LY, they produced only 13 takeaways and had a TO margin of -16 (2nd worst). In just five games so far this year, they've already forced 15 TO's (scored 74 pts off them) and lead the league in differential! Funny how that works! The Jags former HC, Gus Bradley, never could put together a winning season here. But he did leave behind a defense that was poised to be excellent and that's come to fruition as they're allowing just 16.6 PPG and three times have held the opponent to nine points or less! Sure, they've yet to string together B2B victories. But this is also only the second time they've been favored. They've overachieved in the early going, which will serve them well moving forward as they look to take a very winnable AFC South. The Rams' defense was thought to be a strength coming into the year, but instead it has been the offense as this team looks totally different under HC Sean McVay compared to the odious Jeff Fisher. They scored 35 pts or more in three of the first four games before getting held to only 10 in LW's home loss to the Seahawks. I faded them in that spot LW as I just didn't think they were worthy favorites against the team that has been the class of their division for the last five years. I still think the Rams are getting a bit too much "residual" credit from that 46-9 beatdown of the Colts back in Week 1. While you could say the same for the Jags and their 37-point win (44-7) over the Ravens, the fact is that in the other four games, Jacksonville has outscored its opponents while the Rams have not. The Jags are the better team here (especially on defense, which is a surprise) and should be getting more credit here for playing at home. The Rams could be looking ahead to next week's trip to London (teams just 12-25-1 ATS in that spot). 8* Jacksonville |
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10-15-17 | Browns +10 v. Texans | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -120 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): You'll get no argument from me that the Browns are a bad football team. Since Hue Jackson took over (before last season), they are now a mind-numbing 1-20 straight up. Perhaps equally as embarrassing is their 5-16 ATS mark. (So much for the pointspread being the "great equalizer!"). They are one of three winless teams (49ers, Giants) entering Week 6 where they are (not surprisingly) getting big points on the road. But you may be shocked to learn that despite a -44 point differential, the Browns are outgaining foes this year on a per game basis and are basically even in yards per play! Therefore, I'm going to "roll the dice" here as yet another QB (Kevin Hogan) tries to jumpstart this moribund franchise. Houston is a team I was NOT high on entering the year and they just lost JJ Watt for the season. Take the points in what has the potential to be a stunning upset Sunday. Last week's loss to the Jets was horrific even by Browns' standards. At home, they outgained the Flyboys by a nearly 2:1 margin, yet still came up three points short on the scoreboard (17-14). Making that final score all the more painful is the fact that THREE times Cleveland had the ball inside the Jets' 10-yard line and came away w/ ZERO points! Watching the game, I felt the blame lied at the feet of HC Jackson and not rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who was not put into the most ideal situations. That said, I think the move to start Hogan here is the correct one as Kizer clearly is NOT ready for the NFL level yet, particularly with such a lack of weapons around him. Hogan won't be bringing back the "glory days" in Cleveland, but he's more mobile than you think and directed both of the team's TD drives last week. The Texans were able to rank near the top of the league in yards allowed LY despite being w/o Watt most of the way. But expecting them to do so again seems foolish. Also, that side of the ball has been further negatively impacted by the loss of Whitney Mercilus. So that's the top two defensive players that the Texans will be without. Even though they lost last week (at home to Kansas City), I feel this is a unique situation where a team is overvalued after a LOSS. That was a national TV game against the Chiefs and QB DeShaun Watson continued to look good. But consider that w/ one exception - a ridiculous 57-14 win over Tennessee two weeks ago - the Texans have not produced a single double-digit victory the last two years! It is Cleveland that surprisingly comes into this game w/ the better defensive numbers as they rank in the Top 5, giving up just 304.8 YPG. 8* Cleveland |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (1:00 ET): Bye weeks started last week, thus four teams come into Week 6 w/ some early season rest. All four play at home and three of them are being asked to lay double-digits. Interestingly, the one that is NOT is New Orleans, a team typically known for a strong homefield advantage at the Mercedes Benz Superdome. Now it's been a "high level of mediocrity" in the Big Easy these last several seasons (three straight 7-9 SU finishes), which is what happens when you consistently field a top five offense, but also a bottom five defense. This season saw the Saints start 0-2 w/ losses to the Vikings and Patriots (underdogs in both games). But "true to form," they bounced back w/ B2B wins before the bye, beating Carolina and Miami by a combined 54-13 margin. Coming into the year, I felt "regression" was the operative word for a Lions team that somewhat fraudulently made the playoffs a season ago. They didn't beat a single playoff team en route to LY's 9-7 SU regular season record, which required an NFL-high EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks. The Lions were actually outscored over the course of last year, even before getting blown out by Seattle in the Wild Card Game. So when I saw this team sitting at 3-1 SU going into last week, I just had to fade them. Sure enough, they lost 27-24 to Carolina and the game wasn't really that close as they were outgained by 120 yards and trailed by as many as 17 at home. As I projected, close games have started to go AGAINST the Lions. They also lost to Atlanta, 30-26, after being stopped at the goal line on the final play. (It should also be pointed out that they were outgained pretty severely by the Falcons & only in the game due to a +3 turnover margin). A strange thing has keyed the Saints resurgence the L2 games and that's their defense has actually played well! In addition to allowing just 13 pts in the pair of victories, they've given up an average of only 237 yards per game! Yes, playing Miami (in London) certainly helped, but note Detroit is averaging only 288 YPG offensively. It's also worth pointing out that the Saints whipped the Panthers in Carolina while Detroit lost to them at home. QB Matt Stafford is not 100% right now either. There's even more significant attrition on the defensive side of the ball w/ Haloti Ngata possibly done for the year. As for New Orleans, theybye obviously allows them to come in healthy as LT Terron Armstead is set to make his 2017 debut after offseason shoulder surgery as will WR Willie Snead (suspended first four games). Dumping Adrian Peterson before he became a distraction was a wise move. The Lions' defense allowed a very high completion percentage LY and that seems problematic against Drew Brees, who is averaging almost a full yard more per attempt compared to his counterpart Stafford. 8* New Orleans |
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10-15-17 | Bears +7 v. Ravens | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 42 h 24 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): The Bears have not won a road game since 2015. They share that ignominious distinction w/ only the Browns. But we're in the "Mitchell Trubisky era" now. The rookie signal-caller made his pro debut last week (Monday night) and while his play was "so-so" (at best), there's no denying the team at least played hard. In fact, they led most of the way against Minnesota, only ceding the lead late after a bad Trubisky interception. This week brings what looks to be a greater challenge, at Baltimore, but the Ravens are banged up team right now and a money-burning 0-5 ATS their last five times as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. This looks like your classic overlay as I don't think Chicago is as bad as the oddsmakers seem to. Take the points. Partly responsible for this line is the fact Baltimore went into Oakland last week and came away w/ a fairly convincing 30-17 (were three-point dogs). However, that was not a Raiders team at full strength as they were without QB Derek Carr. Furthermore, the Silver and Black are overrated to begin with. Let's also not forget what happened to the Ravens the previous two weeks; they were beaten down by both Jacksonville (in London) and Pittsburgh (at home), getting outscored 70-16. You may be surprised to learn that this team is -40.2 YPG compared to their opponents. Also remember that they benefited from TEN turnovers in their first two wins, one of which was against the Browns. Earlier I mentioned that the Ravens are "banged up" right now. Really, that's putting things mildly as they have a NFL-high 16 players currently on IR! The most significant of those injuries are all along the offensive line where the team is already down to its third different right tackle! Chicago may be -9.2 in point per game differential, but they're roughly even in total yardage, only being outgained by just over five yards per game. Even w/ four games of Mike Glennon, the Bears' offense is averaging more YPG than is the Ravens. Even though they lost both games, they outgained both the Packers and Vikings the L2 wks, a positive sign if you're Chicago. While Baltimore benefited from forcing 10 TO's in pair of wins, the Bears have suffered two losses where they gave away the ball eight times. These teams are a little more even than you think (remember Chicago upset Pittsburgh!) and the Bears are a perfect 8-0 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the total is 42 pts or less. Bottom line is that in a game where I don't expect a ton of scoring, taking points is the way to go. 8* Chicago |
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10-14-17 | Utah v. USC -13 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 30 m | Show |
8* USC (8:00 ET): This is one of those rare instances where the public is likely going to be backing the underdog. After all, at worst, Utah has gone 4-0-1 ATS for bettors (5-0 for some), depending on your line for LW's tilt vs. Stanford where the Utes lost 23-30. Meanwhile, USC is a disappointing 1-5 ATS, ironically the lone cover coming against Stanford. But the pointspread is more than justified here, at least in my opinion, as Utah was a fraudulent 4-0 going into last week and nowhere near worthy of Top 25 status. USC, despite losing at Washington State (when down three offensive lineman), remains one of the most talented teams in the entire country. This is a revenge spot for the Men of Troy as they lost LY in Salt Lake after blowing a double-digit 4Q lead. Prior to the game at Wazzu, Southern Cal had not lost since last year in Salt Lake. Even in defeat, I thought they outplayed the Utes LY and I'm not just saying that because I had them. They outgained them, but were -2 in turnovers. It was a Friday night game and both of Utah's final two touchdowns came on long drives, the final one going 93 yards and ending w/ just 16 seconds left on the clock (gave Utah a 31-27 lead). Again, while the majority of results for USC have been closer than expected this year, I don't think it's right to bury them. They did lose three O-lineman at Wazzu (another Fri night game!), yet were still tied late in the fourth quarter against maybe the toughest opponent they'll see all year (Notre Dame?). Last week, I faded them, but that came as large favorites (33-pt spread) and though I ended up covering rather easily (38-10 final), USC really dominated the game from the outset. It was 28-3 at the end of three quarters and the Trojans still finished w/ a rather significant 512-319 edge in total yds. Utah has two road wins thus far, but both were by only six points, and they were quite fortunate to overcome Arizona a couple weeks ago. That game saw them outgained 448-341 only to benefit from FIVE turnovers, the last of which came at their own 20-yd line w/ the game hanging in the balance. Even worse, QB Tyler Huntley was injured in that game, necessitating a move back to 2016 starter Trevor Williams. Williams struggled against Stanford, barely completing 50% of his pass attempts. The Utes have been tremendous as an underdog the last several seasons, but this reminds me a bit of their last visit to the Coliseum, two years ago, where they were ranked #3 in the country (unbeaten at the time!), yet underdogs and lost 42-24. In my opinion, Southern Cal remains the class of the Pac 12 South. 8* USC |
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10-14-17 | Houston v. Tulsa +14 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (4:00 ET): I can't say that Tulsa's 2017 regression comes as any surprise, given that I had them earmarked to take a step back following LY's somewhat stunning 10-3 (SU) campaign. After all, they lost their starting QB, a 1,600 yd rusher and TWO 1,000+ yd receivers from that team, not to mention three of the top four tacklers on the defensive side of the ball. That being said, I did not envision the Golden Hurricane coming into this key AAC West matchup at 1-5 straight up. They've lost four in a row, three of them close before last week's absolutely wretched deal at Tulane where a decision to move up kickoff was made very late (due to Hurricane Nate). It seems as if the Tulsa players didn't get that memo, however, as Tulane scored on each of its SEVEN first half possessions and went into the break up 48-7. The final score ended up being 62-28. Back home this week, and getting lots of points, I expect a much more focused group. Take the points. Houston came into the year as the favorite to win the division, just like last year when they underperformed (were considered New Year's Six contender) and finished only 9-4 SU in Tom Herman's final year. Major Applewhite was the OC under Herman, so there's not been much of a learning curve. That said, I feel the Cougars are a bit lucky to be 4-1 SU night. They've played nothing but close games (save for horrible Rice) and generally had the ball bounce their way. The season opener at Arizona (won 19-16) could have gone either way. They lost outright at home to Texas Tech, 24-17 as seven-point favorites, giving up over 500 yards of total offense (also turned the ball over five times). A 20-13 win at Temple (who has also taken a major step back this year) saw them benefit from turnovers, but the big story there was Ed Oliver suffering a knee injury. He did play last week against SMU, but as I'm about to get into, that was a pretty lucky cover for the Cougs. You can probably file that Houston-SMU game last Saturday right at the top of the "bad beats" pile. Yeah, SMU was probably in line for a non-cover anyway based on a 5-0 ATS start. But as 10-pt underdogs, they didn't trail by double digits until early fourth quarter. Trailing 35-22, the Mustangs' next three drives all reached the Houston side of the field, but NONE of them resulted in points. Houston was outgained by 81 yds in the contest and if you take away that game against Rice, then the overall numbers look really subpar. Granted, Tulsa has work to do as well, but two of their losses were by a field goal, one as a 7.5-pt home favorite against New Mexico. Last week's performance is no way indicative of what Philip Montgomery's team can bring to the table. Looking to avoid what would be a third straight loss at home (and fifth in a row overall), I expect a strong effort from the home dog Saturday. Meanwhile, UH seems to be in an awful spot given the lucky cover last week, the fact they have a QB controversy brewing (haven't even mentioned that!) and are looking at a short week coming up w/ Memphis on deck (at home) Thursday. 8* Tulsa |
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10-14-17 | Auburn v. LSU +7.5 | Top | 23-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 56 m | Show |
8* LSU (3:30 ET): It is quite amazing to see the shift in the market and public perception for this SEC West matchup. The look ahead line over the summer had LSU as the 7-point favorite. Now the Bayou Bengals' disappointing play thus far certainly justifies a move in the market, but I have to now wonder if that move is too much, plus the public is ALL over Auburn here. Such lopsided endorsement of the road team, as a favorite no less, seems somewhat foolish as the home team is on a 15-2 SU run in this rivalry. Yes, LSU has failed to cover its last five times as an underdog. But three of those games came against Alabama. Auburn might be feeling a bit too good about itself coming into Death Valley this year, strange because they have not won here since 1999! Take the points. LSU opened its season w/ a 27-0 shutout of BYU in what looked to be an impressive performance. We now know that BYU's offense is terrible and the Tigers haven't covered since. They were actually 8.5-pt favorites AT Mississippi State, a game that seems like it was played eons ago, and that 37-7 loss is what really began the downturn. Note I played AGAINST LSU in that game. I also played against them vs. Syracuse when they never came close to covering (still won 35-26). But, without question, the nadir of the season came w/ the 24-21 loss to Troy two weeks ago. LSU had the edge in total yds there, but was undone by four turnovers. With their stock seemingly at an all-time low and fans openly questioning the Ed Orgeron hire, the team responded with a win at Florida, which tells me they're not going to roll over. The defense held the Gators to only 302 total yds and will now be stronger w/ the returns of Rashard Lawrence and Frank Herron on the edge. On offense, RB Derrius Guice missed the Troy game and has not gone over 100 yds since the 2nd game of season. But according to Orgeron, he's had a strong week of practice and is ready to go here. Remember that Guice ran for almost 1400 yds and had 15 TD's last year as a backup. Auburn's three-game SEC win streak has come at the expense of teams that are a combined 1-7 SU in the league w/ Ole Miss and Mizzou arguably being the weakest teams overall. They did dominate the same Mississippi State team that dominated LSU, but the winners of both those games were the home teams. Something else certainly worth noting is that LSU was the road favorite for this matchup last year and lost outright 18-13 (laying three). So it's a revenge game for them. Here, I do not expect Auburn's offense to come anywhere close to the production we've seen so far in SEC play. Rather, it should be a lower scoring type affair conducive to taking the points. Yes it was Clemson they were playing, but Auburn's offense managed just over 100 total yards in an earlier road game. The only other road game they've played was at Missouri, who is awful to begin with and turned the ball over four times. 8* LSU |
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10-14-17 | Texas Tech +3.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 35-46 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
8* Texas Tech (12:00 ET): Plenty of points are expected in this Big 12 matchup (total is 75!), but I'm far more intrigued by the side in what looks like a trap spot for the short home chalk. Sure enough, the sharp dollars quickly flowed in AGAINST WVU here taking them from a TD favorite to nearly a field goal. What makes this a trap spot for the Mountaineers is that they are coming off a tough loss LW at TCU (both teams were off byes), 31-24, as 12.5-pt underdogs. It was a game WVU finished w/ the edge in total yards (508-406) and first downs (28-16), but two turnovers cost them and they gave up the GW TD w/ just under three minutes remaining. Texas Tech is a live dog here as not only did they go for 600+ total yds LW, but they also are 19-9-2 ATS overall their L30 games. Take the points (even though you may not end up needing them). The majority of signs were pointing down coming into the year in Morgantown. This is far from HC Dana Holgorsen's most experienced team as he had only eight starters back from last year's squad that finished 10-3 SU. Of course, that 10-3 SU record included a rather fortuitous 4-0 mark in games decided by four points or less. (BYU, Kansas St, Texas and Baylor were the teams they beat close). Ironically, one of LY's biggest wins in conference play came against Texas Tech, 48-17 (-2) in Lubbock. But that was actually the 'Neers' first cover against the Red Raiders since joining the Big 12. They were 0-4 ATS previously even though they've now won the L3 meetings (straight up). In their first game of '17, WVU was go-against team in my 10* Game of the Week and they lost to Va Tech. I wasn't all too impressed by a subsequent three-game win streak as the teams they beat included East Carolina (terrible), Delaware State (FCS) and Kansas (worst team in Big 12). That lack of impressiveness there is somewhat confirmed by them failing to cover twice. Last week's loss in Ft. Worth does not set them up well here as they are 1-6 ATS L3 seasons off a conference loss. Texas Tech's only loss came two weeks ago to Oklahoma State, a game which really wasn't as close as the 31-24 final indicates. But they do have wins over both Arizona State and at Houston. Last week was not close as it was their turn to blow out Kansas, 65-19 as 14.5-pt chalk. It's worth noting they dominated Kansas far more than WVU did. We know this team can move the ball as they come in averaging 549.8 YPG. Last week marked the 3rd time they broke the 600-yard threshold. Now WVU does average roughly 30 more YPG, but you might be surprised to learn that the Texas Tech defense is better overall and on a yards per play basis (5.5 to 6.1). While I'm a bit surprised to see the Red Raiders ranked in the AP Poll (#24) (they replaced WVU!), I feel this game sets up well for them as it's a triple revenge spot and WVU has lost nine straight to ranked opponents. The Red Raiders can also run the ball, something that has NOT been the case in past seasons. 8* Texas Tech |
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10-14-17 | Eastern Michigan +6.5 v. Army | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
10* Army (12:00 ET): Burdened w/ expectations for the 1st time in the Jeff Monken era (4th year here at West Point), the Cadets are having a little bit of an issue covering spreads. They've actually been favored four times previous to here and gone just 2-2 ATS. However, it's interesting to note that all four times saw them asked to lay double digits, which is NOT the case this week as they welcome Eastern Michigan to campus. EMU achieved its greatest success in years last season (1st bowl appearance since '87!), but was expected to regress here in '17 and has responded in kind. They've dropped three in a row, albeit all by a TD or less. I don't like this spot for the visiting Eagles - at all - as not only is it a third consecutive road game, but stepping outside of MAC play right now probably isn't for the best. Lay the points. Army did cover as a favorite LW, routing RIce by a final score of 49-12 (-12), on the road no less, their first win in Houston since '58. Now Rice is undoubtedly one of the worst teams in the country and they turned the ball over SIX times. But building a 35-0 by halftime was impressive for the Black Knights. Not exactly known for forcing TO's, Army forced one on each of Rice's first four possessions and scored a TD off every one! Their forte is of course running the football and they went for 418 yds over land, their most since the opener. They figure to have success here against an Eastern Michigan defense that has struggled against the run in four of its five games this season. Speaking of defense, Army has been pretty impressive on that side of the ball thus far. Only Ohio State has topped 21 points against them and Eastern Michigan isn't likely to, given they come in averaging only 19.0 PPG. This will be the third meeting in five years between these two schools as they've alternated every season. Army has won both prior meetings, scoring 50 or more each time. They are 6-1 SU all-time against the Eagles. Off three consecutive tough losses, it's going to be tough for Eastern Michigan to "get off the mat" here. Against Ohio U, they fell in double OT at home. Then came perhaps the toughest loss of the bunch, at Kentucky, where despite an edge in total yds they lost 24-20. Last week in Toledo, QB Brogan Roback threw an INT at the Toledo 31 yard line w/ just over a minute to go in a 20-15 loss. Given the turnover issues that have plagued EMU and what Army did to Rice last week, TO's again figure to be a deciding factor in this one. We know Army can run the ball, but Eastern Michigan cannot as during the three-game losing streak, they've averaged only 43.7 yards per game. 10* Army |
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10-14-17 | Michigan v. Indiana +7.5 | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show |
8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Home dogs off a bye haven't performed as well as you might think ATS, but here Indiana happens to be catching Michigan at a most opportune time. Yes, you can dissect the Wolverines' horrid 14-10 home loss to Michigan State last week (were off a bye themselves) any way you'd like. They outgained Sparty (slightly) only to be undone by an ugly -5 turnover differential. But the Maize and Blue happen to be in real trouble right now as they're down several key players on the offensive side of the ball and backup QB John O'Korn did not look good at all last Saturday night. Furthermore, ranked teams off a loss have not fared well in the past, cashing in around just 45% when favored or on the road. Michigan happens to both this week and a popular choice among the public as well. Take the points. The fact that Indiana went 0 for 2 ATS against Ohio State and Penn State is misleading at best and criminal at worst. They played both Big 10 heavyweights tough. The season opener here in Bloomington saw IU "tooth and nail" w/ Ohio State for almost three quarters (led 21-20 w/ 4:56 left in 3Q!) only to wilt late due to an inability to stop Buckeyes' RB JK Dobbins. Michigan does not have a back anywhere near as dynamic as Dobbins. The Penn State game might have looked ugly on the scoreboard (lost 45-14 as 20-pt dogs), but note the Hoosiers turned it over four times in that game, two of which were INT's returned for touchdowns. I thought their defense held up really well against a potent Nittany Lions offense, holding them to just 370 total yds and Heisman front-runner Saquon Barkley to 56 yds on 26 carries. Again, the offense they'll face this week is nowhere near as good as Ohio State or Penn State's. Michigan is averaging barely 4.0 yards per rush and has a backup in at quarterback. Michigan's defense might be #1 in the country and forcing three and outs, but Indiana's is actually #2! Now the Wolverines do have one of the better defenses in the entire country. But they've also yet to face an offense as good as what Indiana brings to the table. The Hoosiers' 34-17 win over Virginia (on the road!) keeps looking better and better given how the Hoos have subsequently performed. Furthermore, Indiana will keep the Michigan defense "on its toes" as they are likely to rotate QB's w/ senior Richard Lagow and freshman Peyton Ramsey (made 1st career start last week). No matter who is in at QB, they will have a talented set of receivers to throw the ball to. The Indiana defense has seen O'Korn before as he started against them LY due to a different Wilton Speight injury. That game saw the Hoosiers EASILY cover as 24-point underdogs in "The Big House." The last meeting here in Bloomington was also an easy cover as it went to double OT. While IU has not beaten Michigan since 1987 (lost 21 straight!), on paper, this year sets up as their best shot at an outright win. 8* Indiana |
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10-14-17 | BYU +24 v. Mississippi State | Top | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 24 m | Show |
8* BYU (12:00 ET): Yes, Mississippi State is off a bye here and looking to get back on track after B2B embarrassing defeats at the hands of Auburn and Georgia (two admittedly very good teams). And they probably couldn't have asked for a better opponent as BYU rolls into Starkville for this early kick. BYU has lost five straight since a season opening win over FCS Portland State and has yet to cover a single pointspread here in 2017. Their 0-6 ATS record is in fact the worst in the entire country. But as bleak as things look right now in Provo, I believe this line has moved enough (hit the key number of 24!) to make taking the underdog worth the shot. As I've written about extensively before, teams getting three touchdowns or more this season have been KILLING it, going 82-47 ATS including 6-2 last week! Take the points. Now, in the interest of full disclosure, I did think last week was an opportune time to back BYU as well. They jumped out to a 7-0 lead on Boise State, but would not score again and lost 24-7 as 7-pt underdogs. Certainly, we are not used to seeing BYU football play this poorly. I will point out that the lone FBS team they were favored against was Utah State and the money moved in sharply against them there (I actually had USU). That game saw BYU again take an early lead, only to be foiled by SEVEN turnovers, which negated an edge in total yards. While this team isn't good, I still think they're better than how they've looked so far. Before the current 0-4 ATS mark this year, this team had covered 8 of 10 in the underdog role. I think MSU is still getting "residual credit" for its 37-7 beatdown of LSU last month, which given the Tigers' subsequent struggles, no longer looks as impressive as it once did. All that goodwill earned for HC Dan Mullen there was quickly undone w/ the pair of losses to Auburn and Georgia, who outscored them 80-13 w/ significant yardage advantages. QB Nick Fitzgerald, who was made to look like a Heisman candidate by BYU, struggled badly in both losses. Stepping outside the SEC schedule here, off a bye no less, may not exactly be the most inspiring spot for the Bulldogs, especially given the state of the opponent. Be aware that last season saw BYU upset Mississippi State, in Provo, 28-21 (+7) in double overtime. Yes, that means the "revenge angle" is technically in play, but I'm not sure that will mean much to the Bulldogs' players here. Certainly not enough to actively seek out winning by a margin greater than what the oddsmakers are calling for. That game LY saw MSU never trail in regulation, but they failed to put the game away. This is BYU's longest losing streak since 1970 (!), so I feel they will actually be the more motivated side Sat afternoon. 8* BYU |
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10-13-17 | Clemson v. Syracuse +22.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 52 h 44 m | Show |
10* Syracuse (8:00 ET): There are 13 remaining unbeatens in College Football and #2 Clemson is probably among the least surprising of them. The defending Nat'l Champs have not played an easy schedule by any means, holding wins over three Top 15 teams (at the time) - Auburn, Louisville & Virginia Tech. More impressive is that both ACC wins came on the road, though in retrospect those two wins may not have been as impressive as originally thought. At 6-0 SU, Tigers' fans are likely pointing to the B2B games in November against NC State and Florida State as the most likely stumbling blocks. But w/ an open date looming next week, they shouldn't sleep on this weeknight matchup at the Carrier Dome. Syracuse is an improved team this year and can certainly score. The Tigers appeared to the be on their way to an easy cover LW in Death Valley against Wake Forest. They led 28-0 in fourth quarter (laying 21), but then gave up a pair of late TD's to allow the Demon Deacon in through the proverbial "back door." More critical, however, was the injury to QB Kelly Bryant (left w/ ankle injury). Bryant has surprised everyone so far in how well he's filled in for DeShaun Watson. But, at less than 100 percent, I'm interested to see how he performs. HC Dabo Swinney is on the record as saying he believes Bryant will play, but if he doesn't, it will be either a redshirt freshman or true freshman starting instead. That could be problematic on the road. Impressive as they've looked so far, coming into the year I had Clemson slipping record-wise as it was unlikely they'd be able to match LY's 7-1 record in games decided by seven points or less. They were 3-1 SU in such games the year prior. Don't forget though; last year they were upset by Pitt (as 21-point favorites) - at home. Syracuse is an experienced team as they brought a FBS-high 19 returning starters back for HC Dino Babers, now in his second year here. Babers, who came over from Bowling Green (boy have they gone in the toilet since he left), was expected to immediately improve the offense and that's exactly what's transpired as the Orange come in averaging 32.0 PPG this year. They're only 3-3 SU mind you, but all three losses were by single digits and two were on the road against LSU and NC State. Last week, they overcame an early deficit to beat Pittsburgh 27-24 as three-point chalk. While it ended up being a close game (Pitt scored late TD), Syracuse put up 500 yards of total offense and had 10 more first downs. At 3-3 SU right now and with games left against Miami, Florida St and Louisville (all on the road), the Orange are going to have to pull at least one upset in order to make a bowl game. I'm not saying they'll pull that necessary upset, but this is obviously the biggest home game of the year and I expect them to play well. 10* Syracuse |
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10-12-17 | Eagles v. Panthers -3 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:25 ET): This just might be the best matchup on the NFL Week 6 slate. I'm not convinced that Philadelphia or Carolina is the "team to beat" in the NFC right now, but both are primed to finish near the top of the standings. We've got a pair of 4-1 starts here and each is off an impressive Week 5 victory. The only difference is that Carolina (on the road) had to withstand a late, but ultimately fruitless, comeback attempt by Detroit. But they still won 27-24 for me as a slight underdog (were +120 in total yds). Meanwhile, there were no issues for Philadelphia in its 34-7 win over Arizona as 6.5-point favorites. That said, an underdog off a win by 21 or more points is typically not a good bet. Teams in that position have covered at just a 43.2% ATS rate since '05. Early betting had more tickets on the Eagles, but more money on the Panthers. Cam Newton may have had a rough week off the field last week, but he looked great w/ the helmet and pads on in Detroit. So far, he's completing 63% of his pass attempts of 15+ yards, which would be a career-best. Remember this was the MVP two seasons ago. He was 6 of 7 on passes of 15+ yards w/ a TD pass LW vs. Detroit. The loss of TE Greg Olsen hasn't seemed to matter as Ed Dickson hauled in five passes for 175 yds a week ago. Overall, Newton is completing over 68% of his passes this year, which would also be a career best (credit Christian McCaffrey). This is an offense that just averaged 30 PPG in a pair of road wins, one of them at Foxboro. The defense is allowing an average of just 18.8 points and 274 yards per game, both of which have them in the top nine in the league. This is a really good team and as I'd expected, they're a lock to improve upon LY's disappointing 6-9-1 SU finish. Philadelphia is another team I expected to improve its record this year. They have a better scoring differential than the Panthers, but their YPG differential is roughly identical. Something that probably won't be talked about enough in the build to this one is the Eagles potentially being w/o stud O-lineman Lane Johnson. Carson Wentz had a career day LW vs. Arizona, but w/o Johnson (concussion), he's likely to decline - severely. Wentz's numbers and the Eagles' won-loss record for that matter are significantly worse when Johnson is not in the lineup (remember he was suspended for 10 games last year). They are 9-2 SU when Johnson plays and 2-8 when he does not and Wentz's TD-INT ratio takes a predictable hit in the games where Johnson doesn't play. Carolina's defense ranks third in the league w/ 17 sacks. The Eagles' defense may be allowing only 19.8 points per game, but they're 22nd in yards allowed (346). They could be w/o DT Fletcher Cox again (missed L2 games) and remember that on the back end, they still don't have CB Ronald Darby. 10* Carolina |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
8* South Alabama (8:00 ET): These teams had very different results their respective last times out, which was two Saturdays ago. Of course, Troy stunned the College Football universe by going into LSU and upsetting the heavily favored Bayou Bengals, 24-21 as 20.5-pt underdogs. Though the Trojans should be given plenty of credit for the biggest win in program history, they were outgained and the beneficiaries of four LSU turnovers. South Alabama, on the other hand, was on the wrong end of a bad beat at Louisiana Tech that same evening. Getting double digits, the Jaguars were down only one point entering the fourth quarter. Sadly, they were outscored 17-0 the rest of the way w/ the final TD allowed coming after they'd turned the ball over deep in their own territory, late. This is an in-state rivalry that USA, being the neophyte program, wants to make more relevant. I'll be taking the points here. South Alabama had a very interesting season last year. They beat both Mississippi State (on the road!) and San Diego State (who was ranked #19 at the time). However, they still finished only 6-7 SU after a loss in the Arizona Bowl to Air Force. Also, besides the two upsets, they covered only other game (finished 3-10 ATS). Right now, they have a long way to go before they can start thinking bowl game. The lone SU win this year came at the expense of a FCS program (Alabama A&M). Now, to be fair, the season opened w/ games against Ole Miss and Oklahoma State. But it's been the last two results that have proven to be less kind. Not only did they fall apart at La Tech, but in the Sun Belt opener, they fell (at home) to Idaho in double overtime, 29-23, giving up the game-tying TD w/ less than a minute to go in regulation. Since South Alabama made the move from the FCS level in 2012, these teams have met four times. The underdog is a perfect 4-0 ATS w/ three of the games decided by seven points or less. That's what I'm looking for here. Troy clearly comes in a bit overvalued due to the historic upset of LSU. Coming off a 10-3 SU season, the Trojans are now 4-1 w/ four straight victories (lost opener at Boise State), but the last three have all been by five points or less. They are a team that I projected to regress in '17 and truthfully, an outright upset would not shock me this evening. Troy is just 4-9 ATS its L13 home games and 0-5 ATS off its previous five bye weeks. 8* South Alabama |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +1.5 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:05 ET): While there's no debating that the team is much improved, I continue to be surprised by just how much the market has reacted to the Rams' surprising 3-1 (SU) start. This was a team, that when "look ahead lines" came out over the summer, was not supposed to be favored in any of its first 16 games! An injury to Colts QB Andrew Luck resulted in the line flipping for Week 1, however, and the Rams delivered a thunderous 46-9 beatdown in that game to kick off the Sean McVay era. Then, the Rams were favored in their next two games! They lost outright (here at home) to the Redskins in Week 2 though and then were "back doored" as a road favorite in a Thursday night game at San Francisco. An underdog for the first time LW, I took them and they delivered for me w/ an outright win at Dallas. Now they're back to being a favorite and against Seattle no less! The Seahawks are 2-2 SU, having won both home games and lost both road games. While this is a road game (duh!), note the previous two were both "out East," to Green Bay and Tennessee. At least for this one, they get to stay in the Pacific Time Zone. Last week, it was "Seattle's turn" to blowout the Colts, winning 46-18 on Sunday Night Football. The 46 points scored nearly matched the team's point total from the first three games - combined. They outgained the Colts 477-237, largely on the back of a dominant second half where the defense gave up only a FG (and scored a TD itself) while Russell Wilson accounted for three touchdowns on offense. I hate to "overreact" to one result, but the bottom line here is that - coming into the season - I would never have expected Seattle to be a dog in this game, even though it's on the road. Remember that last season saw the Rams start 3-1, only to win just one more game the rest of the way. They're clearly poised for a better finish here in 2017, but I'm unconvinced they can step up in this - arguably their first "high profile" spot of the McVay regime. This is the first time the Rams are favored over the Seahawks since 2011, so while Seattle is 0-5 ATS its last five road games in the rivalry (four of those in St. Louis), that was the Rams "sneaking up on them" as underdogs. They won't be sneaking up here however as I look for the Seattle defensive line to really overwhelm the Rams' offensive line, affecting both the passing and running game. QB Jared Goff is shockingly completing 56% of his throws of 20+ yards, something I do NOT see continuing here against the "Legion of Boom." Under Jeff Fisher, the Rams were only known for a random upset of Seattle every once in a while, but nothing more. He was thankfully disposed and McVay clearly has the team trending in the right direction. But he won't be able to bring the surprise Fisher was known for during his tenure here, at least today. 8* Seattle |
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10-08-17 | Jets v. Browns +1 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 31 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It's admittedly a risk to make the worst team in the league your top pick for the week. But as ridiculous as it was for the Browns to be favored two weeks ago on the road at Indianpolis (lost 31-28), it's almost as ridiculous here to find the Jets as a pick 'em or favorite. It was the Jets, not the Browns, that came into the 2017 season as the biggest Super Bowl longshot. Shockingly, however, they have won two straight. First, it was a whitewashing of the Dolphins as 6-pt home underdogs (I took them there!). Then last week brought an overtime win (also at home) over the Jaguars, who were in the unusual spot of having no bye after playing in London (and the Jags were probably feeling a bit "too good" about themselves after a 44-7 win over the Ravens). That all being said, I'd still make Cleveland the favorite here. Yes, the team has just one win since the start of last season (1-19 SU overall!). They are only 5-15 ATS during that time as well. Eventually though, things have to turn. I will point out that - so far - the Browns have had to face three of the top 10 pass rushes in the league (all division foes). That's done rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who like most rookies holds onto the ball too long, no favors. But the Jets' pass rush has been virtually non-existent (2nd worst so far) and a run defense that was such a strength last year has allowed 175+ yards in three of four games this year. So don't be surprised to see the Browns have their best rushing day to date here and for Kizer to have his best game as a pro. Defensively, #1 overall draft choice Myles Garrett is set to finally debut. That should provide a big lift to that unit. Coming into the year, you wouldn't have figured the Jets would be favored in any game, let alone one on the road. This line is currently hovering around a Pick 'em and could conceivably close with Cleveland as a favorite, but my point still stands. The Jets are getting too much respect from the market here, based on their B2B wins and Cleveland being 0-4 SU. The Jets have yet to top 20 points in regulation this season. I don't see them coming close to last week's stunning 256 yards from the run game. Matt Forte won't play again and on the other side of the ball, Kony Ealy is out as well. The Jets did win here last year for their fourth straight win and cover over Cleveland, but I don't see them making it two years in a row. The notion that the Jets are a "public side" in the year 2017 seems quite foolish. 10* Cleveland |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 73 h 30 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Maybe what the Bengals needed was to just get out of Cincinnati. Or perhaps it was the change at offensive coordinator. Then again, playing the Browns will almost always make you look good. Regardless of what you want to say, the Bengals at least seem to be in better shape now than they were following B2B home losses to start the year where they failed to score a single TD (1st time since '39 that a team started the year w/ B2B home games and failed to score a TD). Bill Lazor, a Chip Kelly disciple, was made the new OC shortly thereafter and the team responded w/ a wire to wire cover at Green Bay (I had 'em!), though they did lose in overtime. Then came the first win of the year, 31-7 at Cleveland last week. Now they return to the "scene of the crime," looking to not only win for the 1st time at home this year, but score their 1st TD here. For the record, Buffalo was a team I was higher on than most coming into the season. I have an outstanding ticket on them to finish Over 6.5 wins and w/ them starting 3-1, that ticket is looking pretty good right now. The Bills are one of two teams (Chiefs) to be 4-0 ATS as they've pulled B2B upsets of Denver and Atlanta the last two weeks. But, go inside the boxscore from last week and you'll quickly find out they were quite fortunate to go in and beat the reigning NFC Champs on the road. They were outgained by 110 yards (-10 in first downs) and ran the ball at only 3.3 yards per carry. What won them the game was a +3 turnover margin, one of them (a fumble return) being directly converted into a touchdown. There were also two long (55+ yard!) Steven Hauschka field goals, a byproduct of playing indoors. Buffalo may be 3-1 SU, but they've been outgained by 22 yards per game. Compare that to Cincinnati, who is 1-3 SU, but +19 YPG. Going back to last season, the Bills' offense has typically struggled away from home, averaging only 17.9 PPG, which is way down from their 29.3 PPG average at home during the same time. Let's not be quick to forget their 9-3 loss at Carolina in Week 2. The Bengals' offense has scored 55 pts the L2 games and I just can't see them starting the year 0-3 at home. They, like the Bills, were a team that I earmarked for improvement this season as they were far better in 2016 than their 6-9-1 SU record showed. QB Andy Dalton has completed 81% of his pass attempts since Lazor became the OC at 8.7 YPA w/ a 6-0 TD-INT ratio. 8* Cincinnati |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 30 m | Show |
8* Carolina (1:00 ET): I thought the Lions were very fortunate to make the playoffs last year as they required EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks and didn't beat a single team w/ a winning record. Now in 2017, they've again produced a winning record via "smoke and mirrors." Sure, they are one play away from being 4-0 straight up, but note that they've beaten the 0-4 Giants and also a Vikings team that was w/o its starting QB and then lost its starting RB to injury. In Week 1, they were also trailing Arizona, who lost stud RB David Johnson to injury! They've faced one of the easier slates of defenses thus far and lead the league in turnover margin (+9) including +6 alone the last two games. The opponent this week (Carolina) is on a 6-2 ATS run as a dog after LW's impressive upset of the Patriots in Foxboro. I expect an outright win here by the Panthers. The Lions' defense did next to nothing LW, gaining just 251 yards on 62 plays. But, fortunate for them, the Vikings turned it over three times and were not only w/o starting QB Sam Bradford, but RB Dalvin Cook went down with an in-game ACL injury. Note that Cook was the one who scored the Vikings' lone TD in the 14-7 final. The week prior, yes, they came within a yard of beating Atlanta. But they were severly outgained in that game, 428-324. Now, the injury bug has taken a big bite out of them. As many as seven starters are expected out for this game, three of them offensive lineman. The other four are in the front seven on defense. That's in addition to WR Kenny Golladay and RB Dwayne Washington both already being ruled out. So, needless to say, this is not a healthy team coming into this Week 5 matchup. Carolina seemed to be trending down following an ugly 9-3 win over Buffalo and a home loss to New Orleans. But then they shocked everyone by going into Foxboro last week and beating the Patriots 33-30 on field goal as time expired. There was nothing phony about that win either as they outgained the Pats 444-373. They even managed to overcome a -2 turnover margin. Even after allowing 30 pts, the Panthers' defense still leads the NFC in scoring. Unlike Detroit, this team is relatively healthy right now (save for TE Greg Olsen being out). QB Cam Newton made some foolish remarks mid-week, but I don't think they'll be a distraction. The Lions have been outgained this season and following a season in which they were +3 in net upsets, I see the Panthers giving them a dose of their own medicine. Detroit can't run the ball (three games w/ < 100 yds rushing) while Carolina has held three of its four opponents below 80 yds over land. 8* Carolina |
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10-07-17 | San Diego State v. UNLV +10.5 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 27 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:45 ET): In last week's analysis on UNLV, I said that this was an undervalued team based on that embarrassing loss to Howard in the season opener. That loss, to a FCS opponent, set a new standard for upsets in College Football as the Rebels were 45-point favorites in the contest. Since then, however, the Rebs have gone 3-0 ATS. They've blown out both Idaho and San Jose State here in the desert and stayed within the number at Ohio State. Saturday night's game will carry a very special meaning at Sam Boyd Stadium considering the tragic events that took place in Las Vegas just last weekend. I expect a very inspired effort here from the home dog and an outright win is NOT out of the realm of possibility. Take the points. Looking at the opponent, San Diego State looks to be in a pretty tough spot. They are in off a pretty fortunate 34-28 win over Northern Illinois where they were outgained by nearly 200 yards. They were able to pull out the win, at home mind you, thanks to forcing four turnovers and scoring two non-offensive touchdowns. While this is the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams here, I think it's fair to say that the Aztecs could be inclined to look past UNLV and towards next week's home date w/ MWC standard-bearer Boise State. Even though the Broncos aren't what they "once were," that's a big game for SDSU as they try and claim conference supremacy. For them, this game might just be a look ahead and that makes them very vulnerable as a road favorite. Last year's meeting w/ SD State did not go well for UNLV as they were held to season lows in points (7), total yards (122) and first downs (9). They lost 26-7 as 15.5-pt road dogs. This year's team has a far more explosive offense (nine starters returned) as they've now hit 40+ points three times (Ohio State game the only exception). Last week, they went for 548 total yards in the 41-13 thrashing of San Jose State that I was on. It was also their third game going for at least that many yards (again OSU the exception). There is good skill position talent here w/ Lexington Thomas at RB and Devonte Boyd at WR. The past three seasons have seen the Rebels go 4-2 - both straight up and against the spread - as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 pts. That includes an outright win at Idaho back in Week 2. 8* UNLV |
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10-07-17 | Arizona +7 v. Colorado | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 56 h 42 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Arizona basically gave a game away to Utah two weeks ago as they outgained the Utes 448-341, but turned the ball over FIVE times, the last one being the most costly. Trailing by six w/ less than three minutes to go, the Wildcats had the ball at the Utah 20-yard line only for QB Brandon Dawkins to fumble the ball away. It was a real "blown opportunity" considering Utah's starting QB left the game in the second quarter due to injury. Under normal circumstances, I might question how the Wildcats respond their next time out, but fortunately here they've had more than a full week off to recover and prepare for Colorado. Rich Rod's team was not particularly good against the spread (2-10) last year, so to me, there's some inevitable progression set to take place. Take the points here. Colorado was in the Pac 12 Championship Game a year ago, but calls for them to regress in 2017 were almost universal. Sure enough, they've opened conference play 0-2 SU w/ losses to Washington and UCLA. The Pac 12 Title Game rematch vs. UW went worse than expected w/ the Buffs losing 37-10 as 10-pt home dogs. Colorado did score first (first quarter TD), but after that it was all Huskies (37-3). As disappointing a result as that was, last week against UCLA was probably worse. The Bruins came in a tattered bunch, off B2B losses where they'd surrended over 100 points. But even though they moved the ball, the Buffs could never get the lead in the second half and fell 27-23 as touchdown underdogs. Last year, Arizona dropped a game in Tucson, 49-24 to Colorado as 16-point dogs. That may seem like a pretty lopsided affair, but Arizona actually had the edge in total yards only to have to constantly settle for field goals, three of which were missed. Note that the Wildcats had won the four prior meetings. What do I feel will be different from last year? How about the Wildcats' defense, which held both Houston and Utah in relative check? After allowing 38.3 points and 469 yards per game last season, those numbers are down to 22.2 and 376 so far this season. The Colorado offense is in the bottom half of the league offensively in scoring, passing, rushing and total yardage. Arizona has shown it can run the ball this year (200 yards vs. Utah), so look for them to put points on the board here against a Colorado defense that was gashed by the run against Washington and the pass by UCLA. 10* Arizona |
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10-07-17 | Virginia Tech v. Boston College +16.5 | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
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10-07-17 | Cubs +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -190 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
6* Run Line Chi Cubs (5:30 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Cubs at +1.5. I did the same yday and it turned out the World Series Champs didn't even need the "additional help" that the RL provides as they took Game 1 in shutout fashion, 3-0. Needless to say, dropping that game w/ Stephen Strasburg on the hill and Max Scherzer not pitching until Game 3 in an ominous sign for a franchise that has NEVER advanced past the LDS stage in its history. Even worse, Strasburg was brilliant last night as he recorded 10 K's and allowed only three hits in 7 IP (none until the sixth). But the offense was non-existent as what I predicted - the Cubs' Kyle Hendricks would be able to stand "toe to toe" w/ Strasburg - came to fruition. Washington had arguably the National League's best offense for most of the year, but it's production waned as the season wore on, which you could possibly link to the absence of Bryce Harper from the lineup. As mentioned in yday's analysis, Harper got in only 18 AB's since returning from injury. Again, does anyone trust manager Dusty Baker in this spot? The Cubs will now look to take a decided 2-0 edge in the series w/ Jon Lester on the mound Saturday night. Lester, a playoff veteran, closed the regular season w/ B2B strong outings as he allowed just one run in 11 IP. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in four of his last five starts. While never factoring into either decision (1-1 TSR), Lester posted a 2.79 ERA in his two reg season starts vs. the Nationals. He allowed just four runs on nine hits in 12 2/3 IP overall. Whereas yday was more of a "toss-up," I give the Cubs a pretty clear edge in starting pitching for Game 2. Gio Gonzalez gets the call here for Washington. While he posted better numbers than Lester in the reg season, he didn't close as well, giving up nine runs over 9 1/3 innings his last two starts. He also issued eight walks during that time. Three times in his L7 starts, he's allowed at least five runs. While the narrative is that the Cubs aren't as good this year, note that the second half saw them post NL bests in run differential (+127), won-loss record (49-25), runs per game (5.7) and starting pitcher ERA (3.36). They are the better team here. 6* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5) |