Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-25-20 | Tennessee Tech v. Indiana -21 | Top | 59-89 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Hoosiers are 4-0 SU in all-time meetings with Tennessee Tech, though the last one took place back in 2017. It was an 87-59 win here in Bloomington. Tennessee Tech did not have a good season last year as they finished with a 9-22 SU record. What’s interesting is that four of those wins came in their final seven games. They closed on a 6-1 ATS stretch and were 4-0 ATS L4. Despite that, they failed to even qualify for the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. I wouldn’t put much stock in that finish to last season for Tennessee Tech. At one point, their record was just 5-19 SU. Will the Golden Eagles be more competitive this season? Ultimately, yes. But not here against a “blue blood” program. Indiana was 20-12 SU last season and while they do lose some depth, LY’s leading scorer Trayce Jackson-Davis does return. The Hoosiers should definitely be back in the NCAA Tournament in March. They received votes in the initial Top 25 and certainly deserved consideration to be in that first poll. The last few seasons have seen IU be a really strong home team. They’ve won 30 of the last 40 games here at Assembly Hall and are 15-0 SU when favored by 12.5 or more. Of course, winning straight up is not the concern here for the Hoosiers. Given that they averaged 77.2 PPG at home last season and Tennessee Tech averaged only 58.4 while going 3-14 SU away from home, I can say with full confidence that you should lay the points in this one. The Hoosiers won their first eight non-conf games last year, all by double digits. 10* Indiana |
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11-25-20 | Oakland +19.5 v. Xavier | Top | 49-101 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
8* Oakland (12:00 ET): This is a lot of points than Xavier is laying here. Leading scorers from last year, Tyrique Jones and Naji Marshall, are both gone. Hampton transfer Ben Stanley’s eligibility waiver was denied, so he won’t be making the expected impact. While there is some returning talent and promising newcomers, I just think that it’s too many points for a Musketeers team predicted to finish in the middle of the Big East to lay in the first game. They are just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more. After a hot 9-1 start to last season, Xavier really sputtered down the stretch. Their season officially ended with a 1st round loss to DePaul in the Big East Tournament. But it was dropping six of their first eight conference games when things really began to take a turn for the worse. The Musketeers did finish with a 19-13 SU record, but they were only 11-20 ATS and the season ended on a three-game losing streak. Oakland has a LOT of new faces to open the 2020-21 season. They have eight freshmen on the roster and five players left via the transfer portal. But while it looks like a rebuilding year for HC Greg Kampe, I’m banking on him getting the most out of his team on Wednesday. This will be his 22nd year on the bench. Though off B2B losing seasons, the Golden Grizzlies did close LY by winning six of seven before falling to Green Bay in the Horizon League Tournament. Their three-point shooting should be a lot better in 2020-21. Take the points. 8* Oakland |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs v. Raiders +7.5 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (8:20 ET): I get the revenge angle is in play (Chiefs lost 40-32 to the Raiders back in Week 5), but this spread is too high. The inflated number is almost certainly due to the revenge angle as oddmakers know everyone is going to want to bet the Chiefs in this spot. But you need to consider that Kansas City was “only” a 10-point favorite when they LOST to the Raiders in that first meeting. I can’t say that I’m the biggest LV fan, but they have covered five straight AFC West games. The Chiefs are coming off a bye, yet another reason they are favored so prohibitively in this rematch. Andy Reid has typically been very good off a bye, but how many times has he been asked to lay this many (points) in a division game that takes place in primetime? Probably not too many. The Chiefs have actually been outgained in two of the last three games and that’s despite facing the likes of Denver, the Jets and Carolina. The defense gave up nearly 500 yards in the first meeting with the Raiders, not to mention five plays of 40+ yards. The offensive line is dealing with multiple injuries as well. One of the reasons I waited to “get down” on this game was to monitor the Raiders’ reserve/COVID-19 list. Well, yesterday they activated 7 of the 10 players from it. So I’m confident we’ll be getting them at/near full strength. This is a team that’s won three in a row, including 37-12 last week. The offense has averaged 190.7 yards rushing during the win streak (that’s a lot!) while the defense has shown some real improvement, allowing just 14.7 PPG. They forced FIVE turnovers against Denver last week. 8* Las Vegas |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys +7.5 v. Vikings | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
8* Dallas (4:25 ET): This is certainly a contrarian play as the Cowboys are 2-7 SU, not to mention 1-8 ATS. Meanwhile, Minnesota is surging. They’ve won three straight and covered six of their last seven games. But the situation here totally favors the underdog. Dallas is off its bye week. The VIkings are working on a short week after playing on MNF. This is the most points they have had to lay in any game this season and the line has DROPPED, which is telling. The only other time this season that the Vikings were favored by more than a field goal (-4 vs. Atlanta), they lost outright (here at home). Andy Dalton is also set to return this week for the Cowboys. He alone is not enough to save this lost season, but he is a definite upgrade on what we’ve seen at QB for Dallas the last three weeks. Dalton’s return should take some of the Vikings’ defensive focus off of RB Ezekiel Elliott, which could open the run game, typically a big strength for America’s Team. Minnesota’s defense may have looked good Monday night, but it is still allowing 27.4 PPG for the year and 33.5 PPG at home! I believe Dalton can make a difference this week and am counting on a big game from Elliott as well. While everyone is focusing on Minnesota getting back into playoff contention, don’t forget that Dallas isn’t out of it yet either, despite their record. That’s because everybody in the NFC East is struggling this season. Currently, the Cowboys are just one game behind the first place Eagles in the win column. HC Mike McCarthy is 10-2-1 ATS off a bye and 9-4 straight up. Prior to the bye, Dallas played undefeated Pittsburgh quite tough two weeks ago. They lost by only 5 points and led going into the 4Q. They should have covered the previous week at Philadelphia as well. The defense has quietly shown some improvement too. I’m taking the points Sunday. 8* Dallas |
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11-21-20 | Missouri v. South Carolina +6.5 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
9* South Carolina (7:30 ET): We’re getting a GREAT value on South Carolina here after their decision to fire Will Muschamp. Obviously such a move indicates the team is struggling, which they most certainly are, but it’s definitely noteworthy that my own power rankings have this game w/ Missouri rated as a tossup. I don’t think that the Tigers are good enough to be favored by this many on the road against anybody and you can look for the Gamecocks to play inspired ball following the coaching change. Take the points. These two SEC East rivals have combined to play 12 games this season. Of those 12, only one time has either been favored and it was actually South Carolina (when they crushed Vanderbilt 41-7). So Missouri’s first time being favored in 2020 comes on the road, after a three-week hiatus (COVID) and against a team playing with nothing to lose. Mizzou has lost three games by 19 or more this season, the most recent coming at Florida (41-17) on Halloween. They haven’t played since then and rust could very well be a factor this week. South Carolina upset Auburn here in Columbia back on October 17th. That was their last win under Muschamp. After that it’s been three ugly losses with the defense getting torched every time. But Missouri has scored 20 points or less in four of its five games. Again, hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points on the road. South Carolina was one of the few SEC teams to play last week and did score 42 against Ole Miss w/ RB Kevin Harris going for 243 yards and five touchdowns. Anything close to that will mean an easy cover here and possible outright upset. Missouri has given up 35 or more points in four of its five games. 9* South Carolina |
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (3:30 ET): Right now there is a lot of value on the 10th ranked Wisconsin. I’ve got them 4th in my own power rankings. The reason for the value is they’ve only played two games, so the pollsters are going to wait to move them up the rankings. But the Badgers have made the most of the two opportunities they’ve gotten, first destroying Illinois 45-7 and then dealing Michigan its worst home loss in more than three-quarters of a century, 49-11 last week. This team is a legit CFP contender. I refuse to say the same about Northwestern, even though they are 4-0 SU and ranked #19 in the country. While my own power ratings say Wisconsin is underrated right now, they have the exact opposite read on Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats. The reason being N’western has three one-score wins, two of which saw them get outgained. They have relied heavily on a defense that is 11th overall in yards allowed, though two weeks ago that unit was very much “bend, but don’t break” as it allowed Nebraska to get into the red zone SEVEN different times, only to give up 13 points. I look for the Wisconsin offense to make them pay this week. The Badgers can also play defense. They held Illinois and Michigan to an average of 218.5 YPG. Though only two games, that average would place Paul Chryst’s team #1 in the country in total defense. This is only the 6th time since 2018 that a battle of ranked teams has seen the visitors favored by a TD or more. The previous five instances have seen the road fave go a perfect 5-0 ATS. Also, favorites have gone 14-5-1 ATS in all Top 25 matchups this season. I cashed a road favorite last week in the Big 10 (Indiana) and plan on doing the same here. 10* Wisconsin |
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11-21-20 | Rice +2.5 v. North Texas | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -114 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
8* Rice (2:00 ET): Two teams that have felt the brunt of COVID-19 cancellations are Rice and North Texas. November is rapidly coming to a close and these two C-USA rivals have combined to play just seven games. Rice has only played twice! The Owls are 1-1 w/ a 30-6 win (over Southern Miss) the last time they took the field. But that win came all the way back on Halloween. North Texas is 2-3 SU, but hasn’t played since October 17th (!) when they drubbed Middle Tennessee 52-35 as a 3.5-point road dog. I had North Texas in that drubbing of Middle Tennessee. But as I said in the writeup, Middle Tennessee was as bad as any team in the country at that point of the season and did not deserve to be favored against anybody. The Southern Miss team that Rice beat for its only win is also very bad, but don’t tell that to North Texas, who lost to the Golden Eagles 41-31 back on October 3rd. The Mean Green defense has given up 31 or more points to every opponent this season, including FCS Houston Baptist. They are allowing 44.2 PPG overall, a frightening number for a team that comes in favored this week. Don’t expect all the off time to help North Texas here as they are 0-6 both straight up and against the spread after an off-week. With more than a month having elapsed between games, the Mean Green will be rusty here. Rice, who is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games, has put up 64 points in two games and its loss came in OT after a missed FG that was a “quadruple doink.” Their defense did not allow Southern Miss in the red zone the entire game. It was a 20-14 Owls’ win in LY’s meeting and I’ll grab the points here. 8* Rice |
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11-20-20 | New Mexico v. Air Force -7.5 | Top | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
10* Air Force (9:30 ET): I disagree with the midweek line move here. New Mexico is not only 0-3 SU this season, they have lost 12 in a row going back to LY! The vast majority of those 12 straight losses have been by double digits. While they’ve been close each of the L2 weeks, losing by only 6 to Hawaii and by 7 to Nevada, the Lobos still have a LONG way to go to get back to respectability. The fact that QB Tevaka Tuioti missed last week’s game with a concussion and is questionable to return here does them no favors. This is also UNM’s third “true” road game in four weeks and last week’s “home game” was played in Vegas. Air Force started its season before every other Mountain West team. Back on October 3rd, they opened the season with a 40-7 beatdown of Navy (as 6.5-pt underdogs). But, like New Mexico, the Flyboys are winless in MWC play. They lost a low-scoring game (17-6) at San Jose State and then a high-scoring game (49-30) here in Colorado Springs to Boise State. But while New Mexico is playing for a 4th consecutive week, the AFA has been off the past two weekends. Scheduled games against Army and Wyoming were cancelled due to COVID-19. Prior to the B2B losses to open conference play, Air Force was actually on a 9-game win streak! That’s obviously a far cry from the form flashed by New Mexico over the last year. This is the game where the Falcons get their running game on track. New Mexico has yet to face an opponent that ran the ball more than 28 times. Air Force could double that number of attempts here. They lead the country in rush offense (330 YPG), averaging 5.9 yards per carry. The L2 meetings have seen the AFA offense gain 1,163 total yards against the Lobos defense. 10* Air Force |
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11-20-20 | Syracuse +18.5 v. Louisville | Top | 0-30 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Louisville isn’t as bad as its 2-6 (SU) record as they’ve outgained their opponent in three of the last four losses. The only one of those four losses where the Cardinals DIDN’T have the edge in total yards was against Notre Dame and that ended up being only a five-point loss (12-7!) in South Bend. Considering that they are finding ways to lose games they should probably win, the Cardinals probably shouldn’t be this large of a favorite against anybody. They simply turn the ball over too much (-12 TO margin) to justify this kind of price range. Syracuse probably isn’t much better than its 1-7 SU record, but they did stay close two weeks ago against Boston College, losing only 16-13. They’ve stayed within tonight’s number against most of their opponents, save for the toughest matchups like Clemson and North Carolina. Injuries and a tough schedule have done the ‘Cuse no favors thus far, but they are coming off a bye here certainly helps. I believe they’ll be able to move the ball and score on a Louisville defense that’s giving up nearly 30 points and 400 yards per game. Freshman QB JaCobian Morgan looked decent enough in his first career start (vs. BC) and should perform better here w/ the added prep time. After rocketing up to an 8-5 SU record last season, Louisville was a pretty obvious candidate for regression in 2020. They were just 2-10 SU two years ago and everything that went right for them LY has gone wrong this season. As alluded to above, turnover margin has been one of the biggest reasons for the decline. But they can’t fix the fact that RB Javian Hawkins has opted out to concentrate on the 2021 NFL Draft. WR Tutu Atwell, who missed the 31-17 loss to Virginia last week, may also miss tonight’s game. I just don’t see the justification for the spread being this large. L’ville is just 6-14-1 ATS its L21 ACC games. 8* Syracuse |
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11-19-20 | Tulane +6.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Tulane (7:30 ET): Tulsa (#25) is off to a 4-1 SU start and ranked for the first time since 2010. That’s quite the cause for celebration. This is a program that won a combined NINE games the last three seasons. I’ve cashed them two different times this season. The first was plus the points against Oklahoma State in the season opener. That’s their only SU loss. The other was a 42-13 beatdown of USF. But there are two factors that have me looking to fade the Golden Hurricane this week: 1. They’ve been living quite dangerously (falling behind early) and 2. This is their shortest turnaround between games this season. This is the second straight week Tulane faces the #25 ranked team in the country. But this time they will have to hit the road as underdogs. Still, the way the Green Wave dismantled Army last week has me looking to take the points here. The 38-12 win as 3.5-pt chalk on Saturday was Tulane’s third straight win (all by 17+ points) and fifth straight cover. Normally, I might look to fade a team on such a hot streak, but it certainly looks as if the visitors aren’t getting the proper respect this week. Three of Tulsa’s four wins this year have seen them rally back from 14+ point deficits. They trailed UCF by 18, East Carolina by 14 (miracle win) and then SMU by 21 (here at home) on Saturday. It’s hard to pull the proverbial “rabbit out of the hat” every week. Furthermore, the Golden Hurricane had played just twice in 41 days prior to the upset of SMU. Now they’ve got just five days in between games. The only other time this season they had to play on “normal” or short rest was the East Carolina game where they were lucky to win 34-30 and never came close to covering the 17-point spot. Because of its ranking, Tulsa may very well be overconfident entering this week. That’s a mistake against a Tulane team who led by double digits in two of its four losses. A third loss came in overtime. Taking the points is the way to go here in what should be a good game. 8* Tulane |
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11-18-20 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State -14.5 | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
10* Ball State (7:00 ET): A case could be made that Northern Illinois actually outplayed Buffalo in a season opening 49-30 loss. After all, they outgained the Bulls 397-357. But they were undone by a -5 turnover margin in that game. Unfortunately, there was no “explaining away” the terrible 40-10 loss the Huskies suffered last week to Central Michigan. That game saw them get held to just 224 total yards. Making the 0-2 SU/ATS start even worse is the fact both losses were in DeKalb. Now NIU is set to hit the road for the 1st time in 2020. Ball State is also 0-2 ATS, but they did win SU last week, defeating Eastern Michigan 38-31 in come from behind fashion. That was a stark contrast to the previous week’s result, also a 38-31 final, where they blew a 1st half lead and fell to Miami. Unlike Northern Illinois, the Cardinals have had the total yardage edge in both of their games this season. They rolled up well over 500 yards last week. They have a significant offensive edge in this matchup and I just don’t see how the underdog keeps up. Northern Illinois used to be the standard-bearer in the MAC. But the Huskies have fallen on hard times and should now be considered one of the weaker teams in the entire country. Meanwhile, Ball State is a program on the rise under HC Mike Neu and is going to be one of the better MAC teams this season. Something that’s even more damning for Northern Illinois’ 0-2 start is that their defense leads the country in 3rd down conversion rate, which is highly unlikely to continue. Ball State’s offense will make them pay on third down and move the ball w/ ease, thus dropping NIU to 3-14-1 ATS off a DD loss at home. 10* Ball State |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 44 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:15 ET): The look ahead line for this game was Bears -2. The number quickly jumped the fence and it’s now the Vikings laying a field goal on the road. I have to say that I completely disagree with the move as I’ve still got Chicago rated as the better team. So it should be them laying, not getting, the standard three. Coming off back to back wins, Minnesota is probably feeling pretty good about its chances of getting back in the playoff mix. Especially w/ three favorable home games on deck. But they should NOT be the favorites Monday night and I’m taking the points. The Vikings are looking to make it a 3-0 NFC North to start November. After their bye week, they upset the Packers (in Green Bay) 28-22 as six-point dogs. Then last week was a 34-20 home win over Detroit. RB Dalvin Cook has been the driving force. While both wins were impressive, I believe we’re putting too much stock into them. The Vikes were the beneficiaries of a +3 turnover margin against the Lions. Also, have we forgotten about Kirk Cousins’ woes in primetime? I haven’t. Cousins is 0-9 SU on MNF, the most consecutive defeats for a starting QB EVER on Monday nights. The much maligned Bears’ offense desperately needs a breakout game and it very likely could come here against a Vikings’ defense that has already given up 30+ pts three times. Under HC Matt Nagy, Chicago has had its own success in NFC North games, going 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS. Nagy is 4-0 (SU) vs. the Vikings. Let’s not forget about the Bears’ defense, which is giving up just 19.3 PPG at home this season. Overall, it ranks as a Top 10 unit in both scoring and yards allowed. Bank on them stacking the box vs. Cook, thus forcing Cousins to make plays, which is something he never does under the bright lights. 10* Chicago |
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11-15-20 | 49ers +10 v. Saints | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -112 | 42 h 53 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:25 ET): This spread has clearly been influenced by the results of last week. A banged up 49ers team didn’t look particularly good in a 34-17 Thursday night loss to the Packers. Meanwhile, the Saints went to Tampa Bay and destroyed the Buccaneers 38-3. An adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers, but the number just seems too high now and the play is to take the points. After such a big win, this feels like it could be a bit of a “letdown” spot for the Saints. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ season is somewhat on the brink and I think we’ll see a better effort from them here compared to last week. The 49ers team you’ll see here hardly resembles the one that defeated the Saints in a 48-46 thriller last season. So many players are injured, the most notable being QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. After being favored in each of their first five contests, this game will mark the 5th straight time that SF is getting points. They are 9-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season (3rd best) including 6-1 ATS as a dog (2nd best win percentage). You’d have to go back a long way to find the last time the Niners were getting double digits. Even with the injuries, my power rankings say this spread shouldn’t be more than a TD. While it’s pretty likely that the 49ers are about to suffer their first three-game losing streak since late in 2018, look for them to keep it closer than expected Sunday. Prior to clobbering the Bucs, New Orleans’ previous four wins were all by six points or fewer. Three of those were by a field goal and two in overtime. So as hot as they may seem, New Orleans is not necessarily dominating most opponents (save for last week). The Saints entered Week 9 at 5-2, but their point differential was just +9. Yeah, we underrated them last week, but there’s been an overcorrection in the marketplace here. 8* San Francisco |
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11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:05 ET): There were plenty of misleading results on the NFL scoreboard last week. Give credit to Buffalo for beating Seattle 44-34, but a) the Seahawks pass defense continues to be absolutely atrocious and b) it was a +4 turnover margin. I remain unconvinced that the Bills are as good as their 7-2 SU record. As for Arizona, they are a team I remain high on despite a 34-31 home loss to Miami last week. The Cardinals outgained the Dolphins by over 100 yards and would have won if not for a giving up an early defensive touchdown. Because of last week’s results, we are getting a tremendous value on the home team here. Despite losing last week, Arizona still has the best point differential (+53) in the NFC. They are an ascendent team that I believe will easily make the playoffs. Two weeks ago, they were a 10* ULTIMATE POWER release here at home against Seattle and they won 37-34 in overtime. While they’ve been anything but reliable as a favorite (three outright losses this year), this is a really short number to lay to a Bills team whose point differential is only +9 for the year. The respective records of these teams are quite misleading. My own power rankings say Arizona should be closer to a touchdown favorite here! Over the last four weeks, only three players in the league have 225+ rushing yards with at least three rushing touchdowns. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry and Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, two names you’d expect, are among the triumvirate. The third player is Arizona QB Kyler Murray! Last week saw Murray go over 100 yards for the first time in his young career. He’s averaging 7.1 YPC and going against a Bills defense that allows 4.6 YPC. The Cardinals have a much better pass defense than the Seahawks (have allowed 280+ yds passing just one time), so Bills QB Josh Allen is not going to repeat his 400+ yd performance from last week. I really like this play. 10* Arizona |
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11-14-20 | Baylor -1 v. Texas Tech | Top | 23-24 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
10* Baylor (4:00 ET): For much of this year, my power rankings have indicated that Baylor has been underrated (by the oddsmakers) while Texas Tech is being overrated. Twice I’ve cashed Baylor in 2020. The first time was the opener (against Kansas), a game which they won 47-14. The second was last week in a 38-31 road loss to Iowa State where they were taking double digits. That was the Bears’ 4th consecutive defeat (Kansas is their only win), but this line “jumping the fence” seems like a strong indicator that losing streak is about to come to an end. Texas Tech has spurned me on two different occasions this season - against Texas (covered as 17-pt home dogs) and against West Virginia (covered as 2.5-pt underdogs). While the call on Texas was certainly bad (game went to OT), I still stand by the play on WVU, who outgained the Red Raiders by around 100 total yards. By that same standard, the Red Raiders probably feel like they got “the short end of the stick” last week vs. TCU where total yardage was pretty close to even, but they lost by 18 thanks to giving up a long TD run (by the TCU QB) late in the game (that cost them the cover). Texas Tech has just two wins this year, the one vs West Virginia and one vs. FCS Houston Baptist, which was the season opener and saw them allow 600 total yards. Those two wins were by a total of nine points. The win over Houston Baptist required they stop a late 2-pt try (won 35-33) and a late defensive TD was the difference in the 34-27 win over WVU. The Red Raiders’ defense is giving up 107 YPG more than Baylor’s is. The Bears’ four losses have all been by 11 points or less and to teams better than Texas Tech. They led by 2 TD’s LW in Ames and have covered 8 of their last 12 road games. 10* Baylor |
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11-14-20 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -17.5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
8* Kentucky (12:00 ET): At first glance, the idea of laying this many points with Kentucky didn’t really intrigue me. After all, this is a team that’s scored a total of just 13 points its last two games and has struggled to move the ball all season. But they are facing a winless Vanderbilt team in Lexington this week and coming out of a bye. If ever there was a “get right” game for the Wildcats, it would be this one right here. At the start of the season, this was projected to be one of Mark Stoops’ best teams in his eight years in Lexington and my own power rankings say UK should be about a FOUR touchdown favorite! While the Kentucky offense - particularly the passing game - has had its fair share of struggles, there are no such issues with the defense, which actually leads the SEC in scoring (only 19.0 PPG allowed). The Wildcats’ D is giving up just 5.0 yards per play and 355.3 yards per game (3rd best in SEC). They held Georgia to just 14 points, Tennessee to 7 and Mississippi State to 2! They should have no problem stopping a Vanderbilt offense whose highest scoring game - 21 points - came in a 33 point defeat. The Commodores are averaging just 12.8 PPG this season, which is obviously last in the SEC. Last week Vandy probably should have beaten Mississippi State (they lost 24-17), but five turnovers were costly in a game they outgained the opposition 478-204. Don’t go reading too much into that defensive effort though. It came on the heels of the Commies allowing 54 points and 641 total yards the previous week to Ole Miss. They trailed Miss State 17-0 in the 1st half and turnovers have been an issue all year in Nashville as right now Vandy is a SEC worst -8 in TO margin, having given it away at least twice in every game. Kentucky’s defense has forced 12 turnovers in the L4 games. Whoever is in at QB for the Wildcats - Wilson or Gatewood - will be able to move the ball against this lousy Commodores’ defense. Kentucky has beaten Vandy four straight times and are 10-2 ATS L12 home games. 8* Kentucky |
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11-14-20 | Wake Forest +13.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 53-59 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): The Demon Deacons have been kind to me on two different occasions this season, both times as an underdog. The first was the season opener vs. Clemson where they covered a very large spread. The second was facing Virginia Tech and that time they pulled off the outright upset. Having now won four straight and coming off a bye, the Deacons are once again getting points this week and I’m going to look to make it 3 for 3 with them. My power ratings comfortably have this as a one-score game. Last week marked the second time this season that North Carolina bounced back from a loss in impressive fashion. They crushed rival Duke, winning 56-24 as an 11.5-point favorite. But sustaining success has been a problem for the Tar Heels. Since opening 3-0, they’re just 2-2 SU the L4 games w/ losses to Florida State (as a 17-point favorite) and Virginia (as an 8-point favorite). While those two losses were both by just a field goal and on the road, none of the teams UNC has beaten this year are as good as Wake Forest. At least according to my power rankings. This matchup is a lot more even than the odds seem to indicate. Furthermore, Wake Forest has been a lot more efficient in the red zone and takes better care of the football. Take away the game vs. NC State (where they were +4 in turnovers) and North Carolina is “in the red” when it comes to TO margin this season. Wake is not only +14 in TO margin (!), but also rested and comes in with a balanced offense averaging 41.3 points over its L4 games. North Carolina has its bye next week then plays host to Notre Dame, so they could be looking past this game. Wake Forest is too good to be anyone’s “look ahead,” so I’m taking the points. 8* Wake Forest |
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11-14-20 | Indiana -7 v. Michigan State | Top | 24-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
8* Indiana (12:00 ET): Michigan State does have a rather shocking outright win over Michigan to its credit. But Sparty has otherwise demonstrated that they are NOT a very good team in its first year post-Mark Dantonio. There’s a reason they were three touchdown underdogs against the Wolverines. The previous week (season opener) they’d lost by 11 - here at home - to Rutgers. Then last week, after the upset in Ann Arbor, the Spartans were blown out 49-7 at Iowa. Right now, I’ve got them rated as the 2nd WORST team in the Big 10 (ahead of only Illinois). After years of disappointing results, it finally feels like Indiana is breaking through. The Hoosiers are off to a 3-0 start and have beaten Penn State and Michigan. While this might “feel” like an opportunity to fade them, the truth is they are just that much better than Michigan State right now and deserve to be favored on the road. I mentioned above that I’ve got MSU rated as the 2nd worst team in the Big 10. Well, IU is rated third BEST (behind only Ohio State & Wisconsin) and the pollsters are in agreement having them in the Top 10 in the country for the 1st time since 1968! Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr is 8-1 SU as a starter, the lone loss coming last year to Michigan State. It certainly seems as if the Hoosiers won’t be lacking for motivation Saturday in East Lansing as HC Tom Allen called this "a trophy game (Ol’ Brass Spitoon!) for us here that we have placed a high value on.” Allen has never beaten MSU in three previous tries. Michigan State’s offense is pretty lousy w/ QB Lombardi tossing THREE interceptions last week and the running game averaging just 78.3 yards (last in Big 10). My own power rankings call for a two touchdown difference in this one. 8* Indiana |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): The Titans currently have a one-game edge on the Colts in the AFC South. But, in my eyes, Indy is the better team. That’s built into the line for Thursday night (which is less than 3 pts), but the road dog is still the correct play here in my book. The Colts are outgaining their foes by a larger number on both a per game and per play basis this season. In fact, Tennessee is actually being outgained. If that’s not enough, Indianapolis has the better YTD point differential as well. Tennessee is off a win Sunday whereas Indianapolis lost. Those two results have the Titans out in front of the division, but an inspection of the respective box scores reveals just how misleading they were. Indianapolis outgained a very good Baltimore team 339-266 last week, only to lose 24-10 at home. Their outstanding defense (#1 in yards allowed) actually held the Ravens to 4.2 yards per play and before LB Darius Leonard went down, they hadn’t allowed a single point. As for Tennessee, they were outgained 375-228 in a 24-17 win over Chicago. While some of that was the Bears running 20 more plays and scoring two late TD’s, the Titans offense only gained 4.1 yards per play and the difference ended up being a defensive score. The Colts defense is statistically better than that of the Bears. I don’t see the Colts offense going 2 for 15 on 3rd down (as the Bears did Sunday). Tennessee has been VERY fortunate this year in going 5-1 SU in one-score games. None of those wins were over teams currently in playoff position and the one close loss (27-24 to Pittsburgh) saw them fall behind 27-7 at home. Take the points. 10* Indianapolis |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -8 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -117 | 33 h 37 m | Show |
10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Both of these teams suffered close losses on the road last week. You had Eastern Michigan losing 27-23 at Kent State and Ball State losing 38-31 at Miami. Eastern Michigan trailed 20-9 at the half, but rallied to take a 23-20 lead in the 4Q. But it wasn’t to be, as on the next drive the Eagles’ defense gave up what turned out to be the game-winning TD. Ball State enjoyed a much greater advantage last week (led by 11 in the 3Q) but couldn’t close the deal and unlike Eastern Michigan, the Cardinals did NOT cover the spread in their season opener, a very tough break for anyone that had them. While those results seem pretty similar, an inspection of the box scores reveals that BSU played a whole lot better than Eastern Michigan did a week ago. The Cardinals outgained Miami 478-422 and like I said above had a DD advantage in the second half. Eastern Michigan not only trailed by DD in the 1st Half, they were outgained for the game 431-302. The Eagles’ rushing attack was virtually non-existent as it averaged less than 2.0 yards per carry. As for Ball State, they gained 169 yards on 38 carries. Despite losing to Miami last week, I have high hopes for this Ball State squad, this week and beyond. They are a veteran team that was actually 4th in YPG differential LY in the conference. Eastern Michigan has a lot LESS returning talent this year and even though they came close last week, it was against a weaker opponent than who Ball State faced. The Cardinals gained 453 yards in last season’s 29-23 win in Ypsilanti and I think are in for another big night here. This being the 2nd of B2B road games is a clear disadvantage for Eastern Michigan. 10* Ball State |
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11-10-20 | Kent State v. Bowling Green +21 | Top | 62-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
8* Bowling Green (7:30 ET): Pretty shocking to see Kent State this big of a favorite, even if the opponent is Bowling Green. The Golden Flashes have been a road favorite just one time under HC Sean Lewis (3rd year here) previous to this. It was last season against what would end up being an 0-12 Akron team. Bowling Green isn’t quite that bad and they are actually getting more points here than Akron did a season ago. Kent State has been road chalk just four times in the last six seasons as well! The Golden Flashes did win a home game in their season opener, 27-23 over Eastern Michigan. They did not cover the 5.5-point number as they actually trailed in the 4th quarter and did not score the go-ahead TD until there was 7:30 to go. Of course, a win was a lot better than what Bowling Green did in its season opener. They fell 38-3 at Toledo. That was a really disappointing effort to open HC Scott Loeffler’s second season. But the good news is that the Falcons were a .500 team at home last season and they are back at Perry Stadium this week. Matt McDonald was thought to be an upgrade at QB for BG, but the Boston College transfer really struggled LW vs. Toledo. I expect him to play better this week. As an underdog, the Falcons can use all the help that they can get. A weather forecast calling for 20 MPH wind might be to their benefit. Wind or not, I just think this is too many points for Kent State to be laying right now. They had a strong finish to 2019, going 5-0 ATS L5 (including a bowl win) but all those covers came from the underdog role. Last week they showed they may struggle ATS as favorites. Take the points. 8* Bowling Green |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio -27.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): This line was quickly bet up, but it’s still under four touchdowns (28 pts) and that’s still a value to me. In its season opener, Akron once again demonstrated that they’re not even close to being a competitive outfit. They lost 58-13 to Western Michigan and gave up nearly 500 total yards in the process. Remember that the Zips were 0-12 SU in 2019 and last in the country in scoring offense. Ohio was also unsuccessful in their first game, although it was a lot closer when they lost 27-20 to Central Michigan. I was a little shocked the Bobcats didn’t score an offensive TD in the 2nd half in that one. From 2014-17, these MAC East rivals were pretty competitive. All four meetings were decided by six points or less, three of them by a total of eight points. Ohio won three of the four and as you might ascertain they’ve since seized control of the rivalry. In 2018, they won 49-28 here in Athens. Last year it was a 52-3 rout at Infocision Stadium. Akron has now lost 12 straight MAC games and all but one has been by double digits! They are 3-14 ATS L17 MAC games. Akron was w/o its starting QB and RB last week, which you could say helps explain the lopsided result. But given how bad the team was last year, I wouldn’t expect drastic improvement even if QB Nelson or RB Gest were to return. Overall, the Zips ended up starting nine players against WMU who are either freshmen or transfers, including four redshirts along the OL. Ohio’s defense gave up only 4.85 yards per play last week (were on the field for 88 plays) while Akron’s was torched for 8.43. This should end up being the Bobcats’ easiest win of 2020. 10* Ohio |
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11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4.5 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -109 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (8:20 ET): This is the Buccaneers’ time to shine. They certainly didn’t Monday night when they barely escaped with a 25-23 win over the Giants. But that can be forgiven seeing as how they had this game on the horizon, a revenge spot against one of the two teams that has beaten them this season. Despite coming up short in that Week 1 meeting in New Orleans (34-23), the Bucs actually outgained the Saints 310-271. They were undone by a -3 turnover margin and Tom Brady threw a pick six. I’ve got the Bucs rated #2 in my power rankings (behind the Chiefs) and this relatively short number is a good value. New Orleans has won four straight, but covered just one of their last six. All four of their victories during the current win streak have been by six points or fewer with the last three all coming by a field goal and two of those were in overtime! So they’re a bit of a “shaky” 5-2 SU. Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU, but compare their YTD point differential (+82) to that of the Saints (+9). Furthermore, since that Week 1 win over the Bucs, the Saints haven’t beaten anybody that I expect to make the playoffs. The defense is giving up 28.1 PPG. It can’t be overstated how big of a game this is for the Bucs. They’ve lost four in a row to the Saints, but with Brady, this is clearly the best team they’ve had in awhile. I do expect them to finish as the NFC’s #1 seed. Therefore, it’s quite logical to take them in this spot as they’d be unlikely to capture the NFC South were they to get swept in the season series. Don’t put much stock in what happened Monday night as it was a clear look ahead on the road. They are better than the Saints and will prove it Sunday night. 10* Tampa Bay |
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11-08-20 | Raiders v. Chargers | Top | 31-26 | Loss | -105 | 52 h 1 m | Show |
9* LA Chargers (4:05 ET): The Chargers are better than their record. I feel like that’s something that could be said most seasons. Last year saw the Lightning Bolts finish 5-11 SU, but they were only outscored by EIGHT points! This year has seen a new level of frustration with a 2-5 SU start seeing FOUR losses where they blew a double digit lead! Last week was perhaps a new low as they blew a 21-point second half lead at Denver and lost 31-30. They are the 1st team in league history to lose four straight times when losing by 16+ points! While these blown leads will almost certainly cost them a playoff spot, the Chargers still have reason for optimism. Most of it centers around rookie QB Justin Herbert, who leads the AFC in passing yardage per game (303.3) and has thrown at least three TD passes three consecutive weeks. This week, Herbert is facing a Raiders pass defense that is #27 in the league by DVOA standards and has given up 260+ passing yards in five of seven games. Last week’s effort against Cleveland was not indicative of where this Las Vegas defense is at. They’d allowed 30+ pts five of the first six games. I am digging my heels in the sand that the Chargers are due for a win. Three of those four blown leads came against Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay. Those are three of the best teams in the league. Las Vegas has been favored only ONE time this year (Wk 1 at Carolina) and has a WORSE YTD point differential than the Chargers. I disagree with the line move here (I’m aware of the Bosa injury). The Chargers are outgaining foes by 53 YPG, REALLY due for a division win (0-8 vs. AFC West L2 years) and I just can’t see LV winning a third straight road game. 9* LA Chargers |
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11-07-20 | Tennessee -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 13-24 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (7:30 ET): Here’s a (small) favorite for the 3-pack, on the road no less. A big reason why I’m fading Arkansas here is that they are 5-0 ATS, a run they will not be able to continue. But it’s also a good spot for Tennessee. The Vols, on a three-game losing streak, are coming out of a bye. Two of those three losses were to Georgia and Alabama. They were #14 in the country before the losing streak began. Now they’re laying less than a field goal to who we all thought was the worst SEC West team coming into the year. As evident by their perfect ATS mark, Arkansas has been surprisingly competitive this season. They have wins over Miss State and Ole Miss. They probably SHOULD have beaten Auburn. Coming into 2020, the Razorbacks had not won an SEC game since 2017. Last week, they looked more like the team we are accustomed to seeing in SEC play. While they did get in through the backdoor against Texas A&M (lost 42-31 as a 14.5-pt dog), they trailed 42-17 going into the 4Q and the TD that put them “in the money” came in the final minute. Tennessee actually led Georgia at halftime! They’ve been victimized by some poor luck/carelessness as they’ve been on the wrong end of THREE defensive TDs during their losing streak. Right now, the Volunteers are dead last in the SEC in third down conversion rate (at 26%). I do not expect that to continue. And speaking of turnovers, Arkansas was a VERY fortunate +7 in their two wins. They were actually outgained in both of those victories. Tennessee is 7-2-1 ATS L10 as a road favorite of 3 pts or less and 7-3 ATS L10 road games overall. 8* Tennessee |
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11-07-20 | Baylor +14 v. Iowa State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
8* Baylor (7:00 ET): Baylor did NOT play well last week. They trailed TCU 30-0 in the first half, at home. While the Bears did rally to get within 10, you really can’t call the 33-23 loss “close.” But similarly, Iowa State’s 52-22 win over Kansas last week was not as big of a “blowout” as you might think. The Cyclones were “only” up 16 on the worst team in the Big 12 with just over five minutes remaining. Though they ended up covering the number there, ISU has NOT been reliable as a big favorite including a 2-6 ATS mark when laying 10.5 to 21 points. Baylor is 20-9-1 ATS as a double digit dog. With Oklahoma State losing to Texas last week, Iowa State is now tied for the conference lead. They are ranked #17 in the country. But in addition to their own woes as chalk, we have consistently seen ranked teams struggle to cover as DD favorites against unranked opponents this College Football season. The Cyclones have also failed to cover the L3 times they’ve been a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points. A number of Iowa State games have been close calls this season. Three of the six games have been decided by 7 points or less. Baylor’s defense actually ranks 4th in the Big 12 in terms of yards allowed. The offense, despite a senior QB (Charlie Brewer), has been the issue this season. Brewer’s completion percentage is at a career-low right now, but some of that has to do with the offensive line, which is now healthy for the first time this season. Despite the 1-3 SU record, Baylor actually does have a positive scoring differential as none of their losses have been by more than 11 points. They were able to stay within 11 of Texas in Austin. The number here is even larger than it was in Austin, which is something I don’t agree with as I’ve got Texas higher in my power rankings. Take the points. 8* Baylor |
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11-07-20 | Western Kentucky +7 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 53 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (6:00 ET): Well, I’m going to give the Hilltoppers another try this week. They are now 0-7 at the betting window (worst ATS record in the country) and 2-5 SU after LW’s 41-10 loss to #9 BYU. WKU is clearly underperforming expectations this season, but it is worth noting last week they had three 10+ play drives amount to a combined three points. That’s stunning. QB Tyrrell Pigrome is back, so I have confidence that the Hilltoppers can move the ball and in a game with a (very) low total, I’m taking the points. Florida Atlantic has played just three games. I faded them in the first, a 21-17 win over Charlotte where they did NOT cover the spread. Since then, the Owls have lost 20-9 at Marshall and won 24-3 over UTSA. So no FAU game has seen more than 38 total points scored! With that being the case, it is very difficult to imagine them covering the spread as this large of a favorite. This just isn’t the same team we saw under Lane Kiffin. The Owls certainly aren’t in the same class as previous WKU opponents such as UAB, Liberty, Louisville and especially BYU. I just have a hard time believing WKU is as bad as they have looked thus far. The fact they have played seven games and FAU has played only three is an advantage for the underdog. Again, FAU has yet to score more than 24 points in any game this season. Thus, no matter the opponent, you almost HAVE to fade with them in this kind of price range. Western Kentucky WILL improve on its almost unfathomable 29.5% third down conversion rate. The defense hasn’t been bad, all things considered. Take the points. 8* Western Kentucky |
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11-07-20 | Nebraska +4 v. Northwestern | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
9* Nebraska (12:00 ET): So the Cornhuskers got an unexpected bye last week when their scheduled opponent (Wisconsin) got hit with a COVID 19 outbreak. That was dually beneficial, not just for the bye, but also they avoided what would have been a likely loss in Lincoln. The ‘Huskers have already lost once this year, not unexpectedly, as they went up against Ohio State in the season opener and that went about as poorly as you’d expect. But this week’s opponent isn’t Ohio State or Wisconsin. Take the points. Northwestern is 2-0, but needed to come back from an early 17-0 deficit to win last Saturday in Iowa. The Wildcats were far more impressive the previous week, beating Maryland 43-3, which now looks even more impressive given how the Terps handled Minnesota. But something that sticks out to me about this Wildcats’ team is that they have benefited from SEVEN turnovers (by the opponents) in two games! They can’t count on receiving that many giveaways every week. It should also be pointed out that the N’western offense had just 273 total yards last week and had a horrible 2.4 yards per rush attempt. Even though it’s a unique and shortened season, Nebraska needs to show SOMETHING in its third year under HC Scott Frost. The team went just 4-8 and 5-7 his first two years here. They lost three games as a favorite in 2019. I like the chances of covering here as four of the last five meetings w/ Northwestern have been one score games, three of which have been by a field goal or less. Two went to overtime. Frost used two QBs against Ohio State, which will make his team difficult to prepare for. Northwestern is 1-7-1 ATS its last 9 games as a home favorite. 9* Nebraska |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers +7.5 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:20 ET): So there’s been plenty of mid-week drama in this one, but I’m sticking with the 49ers. Yes, they are going to be without both QB Jimmy Garoppolo and TE George Kittle. But they have been playing without key performers all season and are still a very respectable 4-4 SU this season with a +35 point differential. As I stated earlier in the year, the “downgrade” from Garoppolo to backup Nick Mullens isn’t that severe. With Mullens at helm, the 49ers have won a game 36-9. Let’s also not forget that Green Bay is missing some key pieces for this one, namely at running back. I’ll be taking the points. As I’ve been quite clear about for a while now, I see the Packers regressing this year. They went 13-3 SU in the 2019 regular season, but were very lucky to do so. Now after last week’s 28-22 upset loss to the Vikings, they’ve lost twice in the past three weeks. I faded them against Tampa Bay in what was my top NFL pick for October! Last week against Minnesota, the defense was run over by Vikings RB Dalvin Cook. Speaking of running the ball, the Packers are really going to struggle to do so here, especially if Aaron Jones (questionable) doesn’t make it onto the field. That would make it THREE RB’s down for the Pack. Now San Francisco is going to be without a ton. In fact, they won’t have a single player responsible for any of the total yardage in LY’s two wins over Green Bay. But still, even against Aaron Rodgers, they shouldn’t be getting this many points at home. The offense should be able to move the ball against a GB defense that allowed 173 rush yards last week. The Packers are 0-6 ATS the L6 years in Week 9. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS L9 as an underdog. 8* San Francisco |
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11-05-20 | Utah State +17.5 v. Nevada | Top | 9-34 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 52 m | Show |
10* Utah State (7:00 ET): Needless to say, it’s been a couple of VERY different starts to the season for these two Mountain West teams. Utah State is 0-2 SU/ATS. They’ve been outscored 80-20 and the lone TD last week came on a circus catch near the end of the half. But, as always, some context needs to be provided. So far, the Aggies have faced Boise State and San Diego State, two of the standard bearers in this conference. I think we’re getting a REAL generous number here as they are set to visit Reno. Nevada is 2-0, both straight up and against the spread. But the Wolf Pack have played Wyoming and UNLV. Wyoming lost its starting QB early, yet was still able to force OT against the Wolf Pack. I tried taking a flier on UNLV hosting the Wolf Pack last Saturday night. While that ended up NOT working out (Nevada won 37-19 as a 2 TD favorite), note that was a one-score game entering the 4th quarter. Something I find fascinating for this matchup is that last year Utah State was a 21-point favorite in Logan … and covered the spread. Granted that was w/ Jordan Love at QB, but I don’t think the odds should be shifting more than FIVE touchdowns from last season’s meeting. Utah State HC Gary Andersen really ripped his team’s 2H effort vs. San Diego State, thus we should be getting a pretty motivated performance from the dog on Thursday night. It’s a national TV game (FS1) where the Aggies don’t want to be embarrassed. Eight of the last 12 meetings between these two teams have been decided by 6 pts or less. USU has covered just one of the last five as a home favorite. 10* Utah State |
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11-04-20 | Ohio v. Central Michigan | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
8* Ohio (7:00 ET): Ohio HC Frank Solich has never won a MAC Title despite being the conference’s all-time wins leader. For the second consecutive season, the Bobcats come in as the betting favorite to win the conference. They open in Mt Pleasant against a Central Michigan team that has given them fits in the past. This non-division rivalry has seen CMU capture four in a row, three of those wins coming as underdogs. The Chippewas had an incredible bounce back in 2019, going from 1-11 SU (in ‘18) to 8-6 and an appearance in the MAC Championship. I believe they’re likely to regress in 2020 and OU gets its revenge. The big storyline (for both teams) coming into this season opener will be at the QB position. Both are breaking in new starters at the most important position. Ohio can’t possibly replace the production of Nathan Rourke, who left as the school’s all-time leading passer and was a running threat as well. But whoever ends up being the new starter will have a lot of talent at RB and WR. Three starters also return along the offensive line. For the record, we will probably see both Kurtis Rourke (Nathan’s brother) and Armani Rogers (UNLV transfer) under center for the Bobcats on Wednesday. Central Michigan will almost certainly be starting freshman Daniel Richardson, although Sam Houston State transfer Ty Brock could get some snaps as well. The issue here is that senior David Moore is under suspension for PED use. On the defensive side of the ball, the Chips lost a pair of corners before fall camp. They have less overall production returning than Ohio and I believe the “plexiglass principle” is in play this year for CMU. Solich will badly want to beat this team, especially after starting LY 1-3. The Bobcats’ receivers will exploit the depleted CMU secondary and move the team to 12-5 SU L17 MAC games. 8* Ohio |
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11-01-20 | Cowboys +10 v. Eagles | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -120 | 60 h 43 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:20 ET): Hold your nose and grab the points here as we’re taking the Cowboys plus the points Sunday night. To be clear, I have not lost my mind. Rather, I’m very cognizant of the fact the look ahead line for this game was just +2.5. It was then adjusted after another ugly Dallas loss last week (to +7.5) and has now risen past double digits with the announcement that 3rd string QB Ben DiNucci will be starting this week. I don’t think a 2-4-1 Eagles team - that has plenty of its own problems - should be laying this many points to anybody right now. Consider that the Eagles were a dog of 7 pts or more three straight games before LW’s win over the Giants. That win was by just a single point and required a 4Q comeback at home. That right there should give the Cowboys hope. Philly’s two wins this year have been by a total of six points and they have a YTD point differential of -33. The Dallas defense has forced a league-low three turnovers thus far, but Eagles QB Carson Wentz is tied for a league-high 10 interceptions and has turned it over 12 times total. With the Jets covering last week (I had ‘em!), the Cowboys are the lone remaining winless team ATS. They are 0-7 ATS, which is the worst start to a season at the betting window since the ‘03 Raiders. They’re due for a cover here and it should come at a time when everyone is doubting them. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS as favorites this season and have won just one of those four games straight up. They are just 3-12 ATS L15 as a home favorite. Take the points. 8* Dallas |
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11-01-20 | 49ers +3 v. Seahawks | Top | 27-37 | Loss | -100 | 101 h 28 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): As revealed in last week’s *10* ULTIMATE POWER release on Arizona, I am not as high on Seattle as the marketplace seems to be. This despite the team’s 5-1 SU record (were 5-0 going into last week). Statistically, they have the worst defense in the league as they allow the most yards per game (479.2) & it’s really not even close. Jacksonville allows the 2nd most YPG in the league and they are allowing almost 55 YPG less than Seattle! The Seahawks are particularly vulnerable against the pass as we saw last Sunday night when they allowed Kyler Murray to throw for 360 yards. Consider this: the Seattle defense has allowed the most passing yards EVER through the first six games of the season. They’ve allowed more total yards than all but three teams and that’s despite the fact they’ve already had their bye and a majority of teams have not! San Francisco has no such defensive issues. Despite an outlier game against Miami (where they lost 43-17), the 49ers are giving up an average of just 19.4 PPG this year. They are #5 in both scoring and total defense. I took them two weeks ago when they upset the Rams at home, 24-16, as a 3-point underdog on SNF. They are getting healthier while Seattle could be w/o its top three running backs here. After Jim Harbaugh made his exodus from SF, this became a pretty one-sided divisional rivalry (in Seattle’s favor). But the 49ers have won two of the last three meetings, including the one here in Seattle LY. But what’s really impressive is the fact the 49ers have covered seven straight times as an underdog, all but one of those times coming on the road where they are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS this season. Remember that virtually all of Seattle’s games end up being close and they’ve tended to be very lucky in terms of results. That luck ran out last week in the desert and I’m not concerned that this number moved several points from the lookahead as I have SF rated as the better team! 9* San Francisco |
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11-01-20 | Rams v. Dolphins +4 | Top | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): There is a tremendous situational edge in this matchup for the Dolphins. They are coming out of a bye while the visiting Rams are on a short week. While you may recall last week’s play on Arizona found them on a short week facing a Seattle team off its bye, note the differences. Arizona was at home and GETTING points. The Rams are on the road and laying points. It’s an early start time too. Yes, the Rams do have a (recent) history of performing better than expected in these 1:00 ET starts, I don’t see that continuing this week. Both Rams losses this season have been on the road and one (at Buffalo) was an early start. Of course, the BIG story for this game is that Tua Tagovailoa will be making his first career start for Miami. While it’s a bit of a gamble by HC Brian Flores, the current “lay of the land” in the AFC East dictates a “go for it” mentality. The Jets are terrible, the Patriots are declining and I don’t think the Bills are as good as everyone thinks. Quietly, the Dolphins have outscored their opponents by 47 points (despite being 3-3). All three wins have been by at least 18 points. Prior to the bye, they destroyed a San Francisco team (43-17!) that the Rams lost to and then shut out the Jets 24-0. The Fins are a perfect 5-0 ATS the L5 years off their bye! The Rams are 5-2 SU, but four of those wins have come at the expense of the moribund NFC East. The only non-NFC East win was Monday against offensively inept Chicago. This is already their FOURTH trip into the Eastern Time Zone this season. Remember that they were down huge in Buffalo before a furious 2H rally fell short. Tua has had two weeks to prepare for his 1st start and there’s a reason Miami made him their top draft choice. He clearly has more upside than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take the points in what is my biggest NFL play of the season! 10* Miami |
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10-31-20 | Nevada v. UNLV +14 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 35 m | Show |
8* UNLV (10:30 ET): The Rebels certainly didn’t show much in their first game under new HC Marcus Arroyo. They were soundly beaten, 34-6 by San Diego State, gaining just 186 total yards in the process. But that was one of the Mountain West’s top teams they were up against there and it was on the road. Here, they’re at home and playing their rival (battle for the “Fremont Cannon!”), who they’ve upset each of the last two seasons. This is actually the 1st game at the brand new Allegiant Stadium that will have fans. The line has moved too much. Take the points. Nevada’s season started with a 37-34 overtime win against Wyoming. The Wolfpack had a double digit early, but let the Cowboys back in it despite the fact they lost their starting QB. Winning close is nothing new for Nevada as they are now 9-3 SU the L2 seasons in games decided by seven points or less. That makes the fans in Reno happy, but it also means the Wolf Pack aren’t exactly an ideal candidate to be laying this many points. Two of those three close losses that they’ve suffered came at the hands of UNLV, including 34-29 as a 2 TD favorite here in Vegas two years ago. Last season, the Rebels pulled off a 33-30 upset in Reno, a game that went to overtime and was marred by a post-game brawl. Nevada is traditionally not a great road team as LY they faced just one team that was in a bowl away from home. They are 2-5 ATS L7 as a road favorite. While UNLV was gashed on the ground by San Diego State last week, Nevada had only 76 yds rushing in its win over Wyoming (less than 3.0 yds per carry). The Rebels are 12-3-1 ATS following an ATS loss. 8* UNLV |
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10-31-20 | Western Kentucky +29.5 v. BYU | Top | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 51 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (10:15 ET): I don’t think any team has underperformed its expectations this College Football season more so than Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are 0-6 ATS, easily the worst such mark in the country. Last week, they barely managed to beat an FCS squad, Chattanooga. While this might not exactly be a “rousing” endorsement of a side I’m going to take on Saturday against a BYU team that has clearly OVERPERFORMED its own expectations, this is a lot of points & I don’t think WKU is this bad. BYU is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. This will already be the third time this season that the Cougars have been asked to lay 28 or more points at the betting window. Their lone ATS loss came in a really lethargic effort vs. UTSA three weeks ago when they only won 27-20 as 34-point chalk. Last week did see them defeat Texas State 52-14 as a 29-point favorite. But as rough as things have been for Western Kentucky so far, they are still a better team than those two aforementioned BYU opponents. I have the Hilltoppers rated several points higher than Texas State, for example. Three of Western Kentucky’s six games, including both of their SU wins, have been decided by six points or less. They also stayed within 14 of Louisville in the season opener. I can’t imagine a team going winless ATS for an entire season, so you know that elusive first cover is coming for the team from Bowling Green. They have covered 10 of the last 14 times they’ve been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. BYU is in a look ahead to a showdown with Boise State next week, which will be their toughest regular season game. 8* Western Kentucky |
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10-31-20 | Charlotte +10 v. Duke | Top | 19-53 | Loss | -105 | 103 h 57 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:00 ET): While there is no denying that Duke’s all-ACC schedule has been more difficult than what Charlotte has faced thus far, I still don’t think the Blue Devils should be laying more than a touchdown in this spot - even after a bye. Under HC David Cutcliffe, Duke has been terrible as a favorite, going just 1-7 ATS when -3.5 to -10 and that includes SIX outright losses! They are a 1-5 (SU) team that turns the ball over way too much for my tastes (22 times in six games). Trust me when I say you’re going to want to take the points in this one. Charlotte comes in at 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS. Last week was the first non-cover of the season as they only beat UTEP by 10 (were laying 17). The 49ers have been dogs two times previous to this and (obviously) covered both times. Those games were against a pair of conference champs from last season, Appalachian State and Florida Atlantic. I had them against FAU. That was followed by a 49-21 thrashing of North Texas on the road as 3.5-point chalk where they gained over 600 total yards of offense. They didn’t move the ball nearly as well last week vs. UTEP (surprising) but fortunately for the 49ers, Duke has allowed 26+ points in every game so far. Duke’s only win this year was against a Syracuse team that is really bad. They turned it over the same number of times in their last game (3) as Charlotte has all season. The Blue Devils are last in the ACC in turnover margin while Charlotte is 1st in that department among C-USA teams. The 49ers also lead their conference in time of possession. Not only is Duke w/o its star CB Mark Gilbert, starting center Will Taylor just had knee surgery. QB Chase Brice is completing only 55% of his attempts and has 11 interceptions. 10* Charlotte |
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10-30-20 | Minnesota v. Maryland +20 | Top | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 56 h 1 m | Show |
8* Maryland (7:30 ET): Maryland played a horrendous season opener, turning it over four times and losing 43-3 at Northwestern. They’ve got to shake that off as they prepare to welcome in a Minnesota team that’s off its own blowout loss. The Golden Gophers were thinking upset last Saturday night as they hosted Michigan, but had no answers defensively in a 49-25 defeat where they gave up 35 first half points and nearly 500 total yards for the game. So there is hope for the Terps Friday night and I’ll take the points. It’s going to be tough for Minnesota to bounce back from last week. They’ll probably still win here mind you, but the team thought it could compete with Michigan and didn’t. A short week is not the remedy to get over a disappointing loss such as that one. Yes, I remember the Gophers did win 11 games LY but they also played a very soft schedule (by Big 10 standards). They clobbered Maryland 52-10 at home, which I’m sure is remembered by the Terrapins. HC PJ Fleck usually does a good job motivating his teams, but I do not believe Minnesota will be the more motivated team Friday night. Going back to last year, Maryland has now lost eight in a row by an average of more than 30 PPG. That’s not good for HC Mike Locksley, whose tenure began with two wins where the offense scored 142 points! Since then, the Terps are 1-10 SU with the only win coming against Rutgers. Even though it’s just his second season here in College Park, Locksley can ill-afford a blowout loss on national television. Despite the success under Fleck, this is more points than Minnesota is accustomed to laying on the road. They were just -16 at home vs. Maryland LY. 8* Maryland |
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10-29-20 | Colorado State -1.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 17-38 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
10* Colorado State (10:00 ET): Last week saw the Mountain West Conference join the College Football season, although that did not include Colorado State, whose scheduled game vs. New Mexico had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. The Rams are expected to be an improved outfit this year under new coach Steve Addazio, who was fired after a solid (if unspectacular) tenure at Boston College. CSU actually outgained its foes in conference play last year despite a 3-5 SU record and should improve their -11 TO margin as well. I look for Addazio to have a successful debut Thursday night. Lay the short number. Fresno State really nosedived last season as they won just 4 games after B2B 10+ win seasons. That resulted in Jeff Tedford stepping down as HC and being replaced by former assistant Kalen DeBoer. The Bulldogs did play last week and I didn’t exactly see a lot of reasons for optimism as they were shredded on the ground by Hawaii in a 34-19 home loss. The Bulldogs gave up 323 yds rushing (6.1 YPC!) and 552 yards total. They also turned the ball over four times in a game where they were 2.5-pt favorites. The line has moved in CSU’s direction for this Thursday night affair and I have to say that I AGREE with the move. The Rams won here last season, 41-31, as a 2-TD underdog and have now covered five of the last seven meetings overall. They have a senior QB in Patrick O’Brien, who should have a good season. His top receiver from a year ago (Warren Jackson) is gone, but expect Dante Wright to step up and fill those shoes. CSU had an excellent pass defense a year ago (ranked 7th nationally). Not only did Fresno State score just 19 pts last week, but both TD drives were 33 yards or less. 10* Colorado State |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams -5.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:15 ET): Chicago is a very fraudulent 5-1 SU right now as they’ve twice come back from 17+ pt deficits to win in the 2nd half. All five wins have been by 7 pts or less. They were badly outgained two weeks ago on Thursday night by Tampa Bay, yet still managed to win 20-19. They averaged only 4.1 yards per play in that game. So far, the Bears have been outgained on both a per game and per play basis this season. In the four games they didn’t rally back from 17+ down, they have failed to score more than 23 points. This is a team I want to fade. Meanwhile, the Rams are 5-1 ATS off their L6 SU losses. They lost to 49ers as a road favorite on SNF last week, a spot where I actually played against them. But they are 4-1 ATS L5 as a home favorite. Unlike the Bears, LA is outgaining teams on a per game and per play basis. Even though Chicago is carried by its defense, the Rams are giving up fewer yards and points per game. Only two teams in the Super Bowl era have pulled off five outright upsets in the first seven weeks of the season, which is what Chicago is vying to do here. The Bears have been outgained in 4 of their 6 games this year. Even though they've won two straight, I don't feel that QB Nick Foles has necessarily been any kind of improvement compared to Mitch Trubisky. 10* LA Rams |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 129 h 2 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:25 ET): I absolutely love this play and the fact it’s been moved into the Sunday night spot makes it all the more enticing. I am nowhere near as high on the Seahawks as the market seems to be, despite Russell Wilson and company being 5-0 straight up. They have the worst defense in the league, at least in terms of yards per game allowed and they are giving up 35 more YPG passing than the next worst team. That Arizona is on a short week here while Seattle is off a bye is offset by the fact the home team is catching points. My own power rankings actually say they should be the favorite this week! Take the points. The Cardinals made short work of Dallas Monday night, winning that game 38-10 thanks to four Cowboys turnovers. It won’t be that easy this week, but Arizona is up for the challenge. They are 4-2 SU despite having played just two home games and one of their losses (a surprise to Detroit) was by a field goal. This will be the 1st time Arizona is getting points since their Week 1 upset of the 49ers. Though they’ve obviously seen some weak offenses to this point, the fact they are allowing just 18.7 PPG is still impressive. In fact, only Baltimore is allowing fewer points per game! As good as Wilson & the Seattle offense has looked, the team is being outgained on a per game basis. They have been outgained in all but one game, a 31-23 win over Miami where they were very lucky that the Dolphins kept settling for field goals. Two weeks ago against Minnesota (also on SNF), the Seahawks were outgained 449-314 and kept scoreless in the 1H by a pretty suspect defense. Arizona’s Kyler Murray has five games this season with at least one passing and one rushing TD. The Cardinals have gone 5-1-1 ATS the L7 meetings with Seattle and this is their best team during that timespan. 10* Arizona |
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10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +11 | Top | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Just hold your nose and take the points. At 0-6 SU/ATS, the Jets are obviously awful and considered by just about everybody to be the worst team in the league. But also, it’s been 22 years since a team opened 0-7 SU/ATS. That’s happened only three times in the Super Bowl era. The most consecutive ATS losses to open a season was 8 (by the ‘03 Raiders), so eventually a ticket is going to cash for the Flyboys. With Sam Darnold now set to return, why not this week? This is a ton of points to be getting at home. It’s not just about how many points the Jets are getting here, though I should point out my own power rankings say anything above 8.5 is a solid value. Buffalo is also in a terrible situation as it will be playing its third game in a 12-day span. This is the second week in a row they are on short rest. Last Monday, they came out sluggish against the Chiefs and ended up losing 26-17. It was the second straight game where they were held to 17 pts or less. While those games were against two of the AFC’s best, I’ll reiterate something I said last week & that’s I am not as high on the Bills as others seem to be. The Bills have a negative scoring differential on the year (-12). In addition to Darnold’s likely return, the Jets are expected to be healthy at WR for the 1st time all season. Rookie Denzel Mims is set to make his debut. He and Breshad Perriman form a pretty decent duo for Darnold to throw to. For the record, if for some reason Darnold does NOT take the field, this play still stands. Getting back to the situation for Buffalo, not only are they on short rest for a second straight week, they’ve got the Patriots on deck. The Jets have held four of six opponents below 250 yds passing and Bills QB Allen has looked suspect in the L2 games. 8* NY Jets |
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10-24-20 | West Virginia -2.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (5:30 ET): The Mountaineers have traditionally excelled as favorites, at least the few seasons they have. They are 11-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in the role the L3 seasons, which includes last week’s push against Kansas where they were laying 21 points. The number is a lot more manageable this week, though WVU is on the road. But Texas Tech has really struggled in the early going and as mentioned in the Oklahoma State writeup, favorites of 4 pts or less are 20-9 ATS this season. Lay this short number as well. Really, Texas Tech’s “best” performance of the year came in a 63-56 overtime loss to Texas here in Lubbock. They blew a double digit 4Q lead in that one and ever since then it’s been all downhill. The Red Raiders lost 31-21 at Kansas State and then 31-15 at Iowa State two weeks ago. Their only victory of the season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then the defense surrendered 600 total yards and needed to stop a 2-pt conversion to seal an ugly 35-33 win. Henry Colombi, a Utah State transfer that followed HC Matt Wells to Lubbock, is going to be making his first career start here. West Virginia’s defense has been tremendous this season as it is allowing 240.3 total yards per game and only 4.05 yards per play. They played a lot better in their only loss, 27-13 at Oklahoma State, than the final score shows. On offense, the Mountaineers are running the ball a lot better than they did a year ago, averaging almost 190 YPG behind Leddie Brown. Texas Tech’s defense has just been wretched, giving up almost 500 YPG and allowing all four opponents to score at least 31 pts. 8* West Virginia |
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10-24-20 | Georgia Tech v. Boston College -3 | Top | 27-48 | Win | 100 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
8* Boston College (4:00 ET): Here’s another short number that has me a bit perplexed. Georgia Tech just got annihilated by Clemson last week, losing 73-7. Little is expected from the Yellow Jackets this season. Obviously, last week will be as “bad as it gets,” but I don’t think Boston College will have much problem winning this game in Chapel Hill. While they too were on the wrong end of a blowout last Saturday (40-14 vs. Va Tech), that result can easily be explained by the fact the Eagles turned it over five times. Lay the points here. Georgia Tech has two wins, both upsets, but neither are as impressive as they looked at the time. Opening the season with a 16-13 win at Florida State certainly turned some heads, but FSU was a much different team back then and still is nowhere as good as many thought they’d be. Two weeks ago, on a Friday night, the Yellow Jackets upset Louisville 46-27 in Atlanta. But they were actually outgained and a +3 TO margin was the story there. The other three games have seen GT get outscored 159-48. Yes, most of that was Clemson. But the Yellow Jackets also gave up 37 points to Syracuse. Boston College also has a couple of upset wins on its resume, theirs coming at the expense of Duke and Pitt. They also took North Carolina to the wire (lost 26-22) here at home. This will actually be just the 2nd time the Eagles have been favorites this season, the first being an unimpressive 21-16 win over Texas State. But they aren’t about to take a conference rival, one they haven’t beaten since 2007, lightly. When it’s not generating turnovers, the Georgia Tech offense can’t stop anybody. BC QB Jurkovec has gone over 300 yds passing in 4 of 5 games. I don’t see how GT shakes off last week’s loss. 8* Boston College |
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10-24-20 | Virginia Tech v. Wake Forest +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show |
9* Wake Forest (3:30 ET): Wake Forest has long been a “dangerous” team under Dave Clawson. It seems as if almost every year the Demon Deacons outperform expectations and that’s the sign of good coaching. While it was by no means an “impressive” showing, Wake covered for us in the season opener against Clemson. After that, they suffered a 3-pt loss at NC State. But now they are off B2B wins, squaring the record at 2-2 SU. The Deacons have scored a total of 148 points in the L3 games, making them a tough team to want to lay points against (as Virginia found out last week). This is a generous number you should take. Virginia Tech comes in off a 40-14 win over Boston College, but that final score was misleading in the sense the Hokies only had a slight +26 edge in total yards. How they were able to turn it into a blowout was thanks to FIVE BC turnovers. This Hokies’ defense has had all sorts of trouble stopping people as it is giving up 471.8 YPG. It was just two weeks ago that they gave up 56 points and 656 total yards. That was a road game. Va Tech is 0-2 ATS on the road as they also failed to cover as favorites in a 38-31 win over Duke. Wake Forest may not be North Carolina. But they are better than Duke, yet are getting basically the same amount of respect from the oddsmakers. Actually, this number has been steamed up a bit, which I don’t understand as my own power rankings have this one rated close to a pick ‘em! Ranked teams are a woeful 19-41 ATS this season when facing an unranked opponent and that is what we have here. Virginia Tech is just 7-19-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to 2012, including 4-9-1 under Justin Fuente. The Demon Deacons are 13-5 ATS vs. Top 25 teams under Clawson, including the cover vs. Clemson in the season opener. 9* Wake Forest |
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10-24-20 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma State -3 | Top | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 25 h 1 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma State (3:30 ET): As the only Big 12 team w/o a loss, #6 OK State is probably the conference’s lone chance of sending a team to the CFP. #17 Iowa State is also unbeaten in conference play, but suffered a loss to Louisiana in the season opener that now looks worse than it did a month ago. I’m a little surprised that in Stillwater this line is so low. Favorites have generally struggled ATS this year in College Football, but have covered 10 of the 11 matchups of Top 25 teams so far. Furthermore, chalk of 4 pts or less have gone 20-9 ATS including 9-2 as the home team. Lay the short number in this one. The reason Iowa State is getting so much respect here probably has to do with the fact HC Matt Campbell has been tremendous in his career as a dog (32-14 ATS) and is 5-0 ATS vs. Top 10 opponents. But the Cyclones easily could be 1-3 SU instead of 3-1 right now. Not only did they lose outright (as a 13-pt home favorite) to Louisiana, but they were outgained at TCU (won 37-34) and trailed by double digits against Oklahoma. Really, the only “complete” performance we’ve seen from ISU was the 31-15 win over Texas Tech two weeks ago, but that’s a team still winless in Big 12 play. This will - easily - be the best defense that will have faced to date. Oklahoma State has been off for three weeks (COVID-19 related, obviously), which has allowed for QB Spencer Sanders to get healthy. Sanders was injured early in the first game vs. Tulsa and the offense has certainly suffered in his absence. Yet the Pokes are still 3-0. They’ll only get better with Sanders back in the mix. The defense has allowed just 27 points in three games and is #1 in the country on third down, allowing only a 17% conversion rate. The Cowboys have won 7 of the last 8 meetings (including 34-27 LY as a 10-pt dog in Ames) and are 5-3 ATS. 8* Oklahoma State |
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10-23-20 | Tulsa -10.5 v. South Florida | Top | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 53 h 46 m | Show |
10* Tulsa (7:30 ET): Tulsa has played just two games in 2020 but both were against good teams (Oklahoma State, UCF) and they came out 2-0 ATS. They upset UCF as a 3 TD underdog and nearly did the same to OK State getting an even larger number (I had them in that game). The Golden Hurricane were scheduled to face a third straight ranked opponent (Cincinnati) last week, but that had to be shelved due to COVID-19. Now, off an unscheduled break, they finally get to face a lesser opponent in USF. South Florida looked as if they might pull off their own upset last Saturday in Temple. Getting double digits, they were ahead most of the game, but ultimately lost 39-37. That kind of effort was a “far cry” from what we’d seen from the Bulls previously. Besides Temple, they’ve been outscored 124-31 by FBS opponents. Every loss was by at least 20 points including one here at home to lowly East Carolina. The team’s only win this year was against The Citadel and they’ve allowed 39+ points in three of five games. While Tulsa may be unaccustomed to laying this kind of weight on the road, they should be more than ready for what shapes up as their easiest game to date. The Golden Hurricane’s defense has been much improved. After falling behind UCF early, they held the Golden Knights to just 10 points over the final three quarters. That was after holding OK State to just three points in the first three quarters of the season opener. This team was a lot better than its record showed LY and has a senior QB Zach Smith leading an offense that will continue to improve. Tulsa is simply a much better football team than USF. 10* Tulsa |
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10-22-20 | Giants +4.5 v. Eagles | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): For the first time this season, the Giants are off a win. Even though they got outgained (337-240), needed a late defensive TD and then had to hold off a late Washington 2-point try. It was a 20-19 final score. Ron Rivera’s decision to go for 2 (and the win) actually cost Giants’ bettors who played the spread as that line closed -2. But it’s back to the underdog role this week for Joe Judge and the G-Men against a similarly struggling Eagles outfit that also has just one win. I’m taking the points here. Philadelphia is as banged up as any team in the league right now. On Tuesday, they did announce that they expect WR DeSean Jackson and RT Lane Johnson to play in this game. However, that comes just as RB Miles Sanders and TE Zach Ertz were injured in the 30-28 loss to Baltimore on Sunday. All the injuries on offense have caused QB Carson Wentz to have a bad start to the year. While Wentz did rally the Eagles late vs. Baltimore, that was after falling behind 24-6 after three quarters and ultimately the rally fell short. Though both the Giants and Eagles’ games last week were ultimately decided on failed 2-point conversions in the final minute, the ironic thing is the team that won (Giants) failed to cover while the team that lost (Eagles) did cover. Still, Philadelphia remains one of the league’s biggest underachievers at 1-4-1 SU as they are 0-3 SU/ATS as favorites. This line opened too high and I still like the Giants at the current price as they’ve been in every game but one this year. The Eagles have the same number of DD losses (2) as the Giants. Their ATS woes as a favorite actually go back awhile (8-16 ATS L24) including 5-11 when laying 3.5 to 9.5. The Giants are shockingly 17-5 ATS L22 as a road dog, including 8-1 L9 when getting 3.5 to 7. 10* NY Giants |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 14 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:15 ET): I feel that it’s always worth monitoring “look-ahead lines.” The vast majority of the time, you won’t find much difference. But for this game, the line swung severely in the wake of the Dak Prescott injury. The only line to move more (relative to the look-ahead line) was the Sunday nighter between the Rams and 49ers. The initial adjustment here, while understandable (Prescott is a big loss!), was too severe. I know the defense has been a MAJOR question mark to this point, but I think the Cowboys with Andy Dalton are going to be alright. Thanks to a 2-0 start, Arizona quickly grabbed the attention of the market. This will actually be the 5th consecutive game where they are favored and third straight on the road! Consider that the Cardinals had been an underdog 16 straight times before these L5 games. Under HC Kliff Kingsbury, they are just 2-3 STRAIGHT UP as a favorite. That includes an outright loss at home to Detroit three weeks ago and an outright loss at Carolina two weeks ago. Two of their three wins this season have come against Washington and the Jets, who are maybe the two worst teams in the league. Dalton will have an excellent set of skill position players at his disposal. He won’t put up the numbers Prescott did, but I expect him to improve the team’s turnover margin. While I don’t think the Cowboys are going to continue to lead the league in yards per game, look for the defense to improve. Certainly, it (the defense) can’t be any worse. Dallas is the only team in the league that’s still winless ATS. So they’re due and it just so happens they’re undervalued here. Arizona has been a disaster on MNF through the years, going 2-11-1 ATS L14. The Cardinals have only forced 3 TO’s all season. 10* Dallas |
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10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 25 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (8:25 ET): The lookahead line for this Sunday night NFC West matchup was Niners -3. Once they (SF) lost to Miami last week, 43-17, the line quickly “jumped the fence” and now it’s the Rams favored by a field goal. That’s far too big of a shift in my opinion as the Niners are now healthier than they have been since Week 1 and playing at home. At 2-3 SU, they have to be very disappointed as they went off as the betting favorite in all five games. They’ve been favored by 6.5 or more in four of the games. The Rams are just the opposite. They’ve gone 4-1 SU despite being favored only twice. They are coming off two very easy wins, the two games where they were favored, over the Giants and Redskins (who are a combined 1-9 SU). The one time this year that the Rams faced a team with a winning record was Week 3 in Buffalo and they fell behind in that game 28-3 before a miracle comeback fell short. That’s also notable because they’d played out East the week before, which is also the case here. The 49ers should be highly motivated this week considering they are winless at home, losing outright to the Cardinals, Eagles and Dolphins. QB Garoppolo, who didn’t appear ready last week, is reportedly now feeling “great.” Despite being 2-3 SU, the Niners have outscored their opponents this season. They are 5-0 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season, the only team in the league w/o an ATS loss when taking points during that time frame. I think this is a great value relative to where the line was originally going to be set. Take the points. 8* San Francisco |
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10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 71 h 34 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): I still don’t understand how the Bucs lost in Chicago last Thursday and that’s coming from someone that HAD the Bears. The Tampa defense certainly did its job, allowing just 4.1 yards per play, which I *believe* was the second lowest YPP average by any team this season (Washington averaged less in Week 1). It was 13-0 early in the 2Q. But it ended up a 20-19 final in the Bears’ favor, thanks to a last minute FG. Now at 3-2 SU, the Bucs could sure use a win here. While up against an unbeaten opponent coming off its bye, Tampa is off its own ‘mini-bye’ and I like the spot for them. I will freely admit that my calls for Green Bay regression in 2020 don’t look so great right now. The Packers are 4-0 and have the NFC’s best point differential. But I still don’t think they are going to match LY’s 13-3 SU record. It’s worth noting that the last three Packer opponents have been w/o their top WR. So that’s helped. GB also got the benefit of facing Minnesota in the season opener and that was their 1st game w/o Stefon Diggs. The Pack have also yet to commit a turnover, which will obviously change sooner rather than later. Tampa Bay’s defense continues to allow under 300 YPG (#2) and you simply cannot run on them as they are allowing just 58.4 YPG over land, which is easily a league best. Green Bay has run for less than 90 yards in two of its games. With three extra days between games, the offense should be healthier as HC Bruce Arians has said he thinks WR Godwin should be ready to go. That’s huge. Despite being the only unbeaten ATS team in the league, Green Bay shouldn’t be favored here as Aaron Rodgers is just 4-8 ATS as a road favorite the L5 seasons and Tom Brady is 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS as a home dog. 10* Tampa Bay |
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10-18-20 | Texans v. Titans -3.5 | Top | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
9* Tennessee (1:00 ET): Playing on an atypically short week, it looks as if the Titans are being counted out again. The team just played Tuesday - when it buried Buffalo 42-16 as a 3.5-point home dog. We went with Tennessee in that one, despite all the COVID-19 distractions, and they responded in kind. Despite now being 4-0 SU, Tuesday marked the Titans’ 1st cover of the 2020 season. Maybe that’s another reason why this line is so low. But whatever the reason is, the line is TOO low. My own power rankings say Tennessee should be favored by more than a TD at home here. Lay the points. Houston was a prime candidate for regression in 2020 and regress they have. They were the first team to make a coaching change, firing Bill O’Brien after an 0-4 start. Predictably, the Texans responded with a win, but note that it was against a poor Jacksonville team they were favored to beat by a touchdown. Truthfully, even though this was a playoff team a year ago, the Texans weren’t very good. They had a negative point differential in 2019 and the offseason was filled with questionable personnel moves by O’Brien. That’s why I felt they were a prime candidate for regression. I think it’s about time we start giving Titans’ QB Ryan Tannehill some much deserved credit. Since he took over as the starter here (from Marcus Mariota, remember him?), the team has gone 11-3 straight up while averaging over 30 points per game. That’s really impressive. Tannehill has been especially effective in the red zone this year, going 14 for 18 w/ 9 TD passes and no INTs. The Titans scored a TD on all 6 RZ possessions against Buffalo last week and now face a Texans defense that’s given up 28+ pts to every opponent besides Jacksonville. HC Mike Vrabel blitzed a lot on defense Tuesday and that approach should be effective again here against a suspect Texans’ offensive line. The Titans are simply a much better team than Houston and are playing at home. That’s not reflected in this line. 9* Tennessee |
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10-17-20 | North Texas +6.5 v. Middle Tennessee State | Top | 52-35 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
10* North Texas (5:00 ET): This week’s top selection boils down to the simple fact that I don’t think Middle Tennessee deserves to be laying a TD to anyone. This is a team that opened its season with a pair of horrible losses, 42-0 at Army and 47-14 to Troy, the latter of which I cashed in on. I did then turn around and tell you to take the points as the Blue Raiders traveled to UTSA on a Friday night. They covered there (as 6-pt dogs), but still lost by two. Another close loss (20-17) followed, at the hands of Western Kentucky, leaving MTSU at 0-4. Finally, they won a game last week, though it was by just a FG over FIU. The fact Middle Tennessee was a 6-point underdog to UTSA should tell you “all you need to know.” The market has shifted too far in the other direction following three consecutive ATS victories. I have these teams rated almost dead even, so even if factoring in a little bit of a home field edge for MTSU, this number should be a lot shorter. It will be the first time this season that the Blue Raiders are favored. I’m not going to try and convince you that North Texas is a great team, but the Mean Green do have a great offense that will put up enough points to stay within the number here. North Texas actually entered last week with a Top 10 rushing offense (in the country!) but were held to just 97 yards on 27 attempts as they fell behind early against Charlotte. It was the third straight game the defense gave up 41+ points. But the Mean Green still lead C-USA with 550 total YPG and 347 passing. QB Austin Aune is averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Middle Tennessee is still giving up 35 PPG and has failed to cover four of the last five times they’ve been favored. Had the Blue Raiders not scored a GW TD in the final 80 seconds last week, they’d be entering this game at 0-5 and we’d have a much more accurate line. Take the points. 10* North Texas |
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10-17-20 | Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 19-31 | Win | 100 | 42 h 8 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (12:00 ET): Considering the performance we just saw Miami turn in at Death Valley, the line move here has me really perplexed. As I’d anticipated, “The U” got totally outclassed by top-ranked Clemson last Saturday night in a 42-17 defeat that really could have been much worse. The Hurricanes were outgained 550-210 and got one of their two TDs off a blocked FG attempt at the end of the half. Clemson also missed two field goals and had a WR drop a pass that would have resulted in a TD. The question now becomes - “how does Miami respond after such a humbling defeat?” Well, history really doesn’t seem to be on their side. First off, the last three ACC teams to lose to Clemson have all lost again the following week. Furthermore, since 2009, ranked teams are 9-25 ATS the week after facing the Tigers including 2-9 ATS if they are laying double digits. The ‘Canes are 2-0 ATS as DD chalk so far this season, but those games were against UAB and Florida State. Prior to this season, they’d been on a 2-14 ATS run when favored by seven or more points and last year they went 0-4 ATS w/ three outright losses as DD chalk. Like Miami, Pitt has taken a step back following a 3-0 SU start. They’ve lost B2B weeks, but those losses (BC, NC State) were both by one point. Basically, the Panthers are two plays away from being 5-0. They outgained NC State by more than 100 yards, but gave up a late TD pass. Then they lost in OT to BC on a missed XP. QB Kenny Pickett, who leads the FBS in passing yards, is dealing with an injured ankle. That may explain the line move, but HC Pat Narduzzi seemed hopeful that he would play. Regardless, Narduzzi is 18-9-1 ATS in road games including 5-1 as a DD dog. Take the points. 8* Pittsburgh |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +6.5 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 51 h 60 m | Show |
10* Tulane (6:00 ET): Tulane is 2-2 SU on the year, but easily could be 4-0. In both losses, they held a double digit lead - 24-0 over Navy and 24-7 over Houston. Now the Green Wave only managed to gain a paltry 221 total yds LW vs. Houston, but considering they were +5 in turnovers, that’s a game you HAVE to win. While it should be pointed out that Tulane did have to come from behind (at South Alabama) for one of its two wins, they also waxed Southern Miss 66-24 the first time I took them. This will be the third straight time (also had them vs. Houston), but the difference now is they’re a home dog for the 1st time in 2020. SMU is 4-0. They’ve had a couple of close wins, the first being the season opener at Texas State (where I cashed the Under) and then two weeks ago against Memphis. In that Memphis game, the Ponies prevailed 30-27 as a 1.5-pt favorite. But the defense gave up nearly 600 total yards, only to benefit from four Memphis turnovers. Note that three of those turnovers took place in Mustangs territory, one of them an end zone INT. It was the second time this year that the SMU defense surrendered over 500 yards. SMU might be coming into this one ranked #17 in the country, but that’s a case of the pollsters simply looking at the WL record w/o any real context. I’ve got them outside the top 30 of my own power rankings and that doesn’t even include teams from the Big 10/Pac 12. SP+ has them at #40. Tulane’s running game, which was shockingly held to just 70 yds last week, is usually very effective. Take away a game vs. FCS Stephen F Austin and the SMU run defense gives up over 200 YPG at 4.7 YPC. While the SMU offense is #1 in the country in yards per game, they just lost their leading rusher and receiver to injury in the Memphis game and that is obviously quite significant. SMU is just 2-6 ATS its L8 tries as a road favorite while Tulane has covered five in a row as a home dog. Having lost five years in a row to SMU, this is a revenge game. Take the points here. 10* Tulane |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Braves | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers Run Line (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. Coming into the playoffs, we all knew that the Braves’ main weakness was their (lack of) starting pitching depth. For the first seven games, it hadn’t been an issue as the team was able to use Max Fried and Ian Anderson (their two “good” starters) a total of six times and Kyle Wright stepped up the one time he’d been called upon. But Wright was an unmitigated disaster last night, giving up seven runs in ⅔ of an inning. By the time the first inning was complete, the Dodgers led 11-0. It was the most runs scored in an inning in MLB postseason history. Game 3 ended as a 15-3 win for the Dodgers. All of a sudden, this is a series again. Now Atlanta must turn to Bryse Wilson, who started all of two games in the regular season. He allowed just one run in eight innings, but that’s a really limited sample size and he never had to face a Dodgers lineup that scored the most runs in all of MLB this season. After scoring just one run in the first 15 innings of this series, LA has exploded for 22 runs across the L12 innings. The 15 runs they scored yesterday tripled what the Braves had allowed in the first 60 innings of this postseason. The other big story for Game 4 is the return of Clayton Kershaw. He was supposed to start in Game 2, but was scratched due to back spasms. Kershaw’s replacement (Tony Gonsolin) failed to get the job done, but look for Kershaw to step up as he’s allowed just 3 ER across 14 IP this postseason w/ 13 strikeouts. The Dodgers are 10-2 when Kershaw starts this season and he has a 2.12 ERA and 0.816 WHIP. This may not get as “ugly” as yday’s game, but the Dodgers will again win by multiple runs. 10* LA Dodgers RUN LINE (-1.5) |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -114 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
10* Georgia State (7:30 ET): Georgia State has played only two games so far. They’ve covered both and probably should be 2-0 straight up as well. They opened the season by taking on Sun Belt favorite Louisiana. In that game, the Panthers jumped out to an early 2 TD lead. That’s pretty significant as they were 17-point underdogs! Unfortunately, they could not hold on, losing 34-31 in overtime. After a game with Charlotte was postponed (COVID), Georgia State wasn’t going to be denied against East Carolina. Despite being a 1.5-point dog (at home), the Panthers led by 25 in the 1st half and won 49-29. Arkansas State has played four games. They are 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. Clearly, the Red Wolves’ most impressive performance to date was the win over Kansas State. They went to Manhattan and won 35-31 as a 15-point dog. Give ASU credit for that win, but they’ve also lost by 13 to Memphis and by 29 at Coastal Carolina. In both losses, the defense surrendered 500+ yards. Saturday’s 50-point effort doesn’t “carry much water” with me as it was against a FCS team (Central Arkansas). It was also only five days ago! So this is a very unusual, quick turnaround for the team laying points. Georgia State is much more rested coming into this Thursday night game. In its two losses, Arkansas State has surrendered over 200 rush yards. That’s notable with Georgia State having rushed for 480 yards in its two games. So far, the ASU defense ranks LAST among Sun Belt teams, giving up 456.5 yards and 36.8 points per game. Last year, Georgia State put up 52 points and 722 total yards (340 rushing) on this ASU defense. A team that’s led both games by DD, getting points, is a good value against a side that has barely led in any of its games vs. FBS opposition. 10* Georgia State |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
10* Houston Run Line (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Astros +1.5. Tampa Bay has gone an incredible 16-5 in one-run games this season, including postseason. That .762 win percentage would be the best EVER for a team in any season in baseball history. The Rays took Game 1 by a score of 2-1 and have since taken advantage of some sloppy Astros’ defense to win 4-2 and 5-2. This is obviously a “must-win” for the Astros and I don’t think they’re ready to go home yet. The Astros have to be kicking themselves that they’re down 0-3 in this series. They have more hits than the Rays (26-18) and that edge should probably be even larger based on how much they’re making contact. But Tampa Bay’s superior fielding has been the difference so far in the ALCS as the L2 days have seen Jose Altuve make costly errors, giving the Rays the one big inning that they needed. TB has scored all but one of its runs the L2 days in just two innings. Getting Zack Greinke +1.5 runs is a luxury you rarely see. Greinke has been a ML dog only three times this season, not counting tonight. The last time was Game 1 of the 1st round series with Minnesota, which Houston won. One of the other two times resulted in a one-run loss. The Rays will start Tyler Glasnow in Game 4. He has a 12-2 TSR this season including 11-0 the L11! But, despite the shiny team start record, Glasnow’s numbers are very similar to Greinke. The 3-0 lead the Rays currently enjoy is not really indicative of how this series has gone. 10* Houston Run Line (+1.5) |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans +3.5 | Top | 16-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (7:00 ET): Given all the trials and tribulations associated with the COVID-19 outbreak, taking Tennessee in this spot may seem a bit “crazy.” With their facility shut down, practicing has been “touch and go.” And the team’s two top receivers - Corey Davis and Adam Humphries - are among those who have tested positive. All and all, 23 players and staff have tested positive since 9/23, making this a very trying season in Nashville. But the Titans are 3-0 straight up, even while they are 0-3 against the spread. The Buffalo bandwagon is beginning to fill as the Bills are 4-0 SU with an offense that is outperforming expectations. While the Titans’ three wins have come by a total of six points, Buffalo’s last three wins have also all been of the one-score variety. Two were by just a field goal, and while they enjoyed DD leads in both of those games, it’s worth noting the defense has struggled to hold leads in the second half. The Bills have been outgained by their opponents - the Rams and Raiders - each of the last two weeks. Were this game taking place under “normal circumstances,” I’d have Tennessee favored. These are anything but normal circumstances, but I think the line is an overreaction. I think people have forgotten the Titans are also undefeated, not to mention made the AFC Championship Game last year. This is going to be a very motivated football team come Tuesday night. I’m not as high on the Bills (relative to most people) and they too have been adversely affected by the change in schedule. The underdog has gone 5-0 ATS the L5 times these teams have met. Tennessee is 8-4 ATS L12 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 pts w/ seven outright wins. 8* Tennessee |
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10-11-20 | Vikings +7 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 56 h 57 m | Show |
9* Minnesota (8:25 ET):I know that Seattle has been a far more dominant team than they were last year when they went 11-5 SU and outscored opponents by only 7 points over the full regular season. They enter Week 5 at 4-0 SU w/ a point differential of +33. Them not regressing (as of yet) may have something to do with “letting Russ(ell Wilson) cook” or it’s simply a matter of continuity from last season. Whatever the reason, I’m not sure they keep up their level of strong play. Off their 1st win of the season, I think the Vikings are going to come out strong.. The Seahawks defense remains shaky as they are giving up 476.8 YPG, by far the most in the league. They were very fortunate to “only” allow 23 points last week as the Dolphins routinely settled for field goals. Total yards and first downs were relatively even in that game and it’s not like Miami is a great offensive team. But this Minnesota offense, led by the league’s leading rusher Dalvin Cook, has scored 30+ points against every opponent except the Colts (who have the league’s best defense. Of Seattle’s last 26 games, 22 of them have been decided by one score. So there’s a strong likelihood this ends up as a “close game.” As mentioned earlier, the Vikings finally got into the win column last week at Houston. The week previous saw them lead the Titans by double digits, only to lose on a last second FG. This is a team with excellent red zone numbers, both offensively and defensively, and I think they’re going to put up plenty of points in this game. That makes them an attractive underdog in my eyes. 9* Minnesota |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns | Top | 23-32 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 15 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (4:25 ET): Cleveland has won three straight, scoring 30+ points in all three victories. That’s a pretty significant achievement for a franchise that has not started 3-1 since 2001. But some context should be provided here. The three teams that the Browns have defeated - Cincinnati, Washington & Dallas - are a combined 3-8-1 SU and the L2 weeks have seen the Browns be the beneficiary of a +8 turnover margin. They now go from facing the league’s worst defense (Dallas) to the best defense. This is a reality check for Cleveland. The Colts are 3-1 and in addition to having the league’s best defense (on a per play and per game basis), they have the league’s 4th best point differential. They probably should be 4-0 SU (have been favored in all 4 games) but blew a lead in Week 1, a game they outgained Jacksonville by over 200 yards. Since then, they’ve allowed just 29 points (total!) and an average of 234.7 yards per game (only 4.4 yards per play). I think the Colts deserve to be favored by AT LEAST a field goal in this one. Though Indy is a bit thin at linebacker right now, they get a HUGE break in that Cleveland’s league-leading rushing attack is w/o Nick Chubb. The Colts are #1 in the league at stopping the run, allowing just 77 YPG over land. Again, this is a big step up for Cleveland after facing two of the league’s worst teams (Cincinnati, Washington) and the league’s worst defense. Their defense gave up over 500 yards last week, not a good sign even though Philip Rivers isn’t Dak Prescott. The Browns are just 4-10 SU/4-9-1 ATS L14 vs. teams w/ a winning record and haven’t faced one since a 38-6 loss at Baltimore in Week 1. 10* Indianapolis |
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10-11-20 | Bengals +13 v. Ravens | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
9* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Even with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson missing practice time this week, there was little line movement for this AFC North matchup. Can’t say I’m too surprised about that; all three Ravens wins this year have come by at least two touchdowns. But they were served a case of “humble pie” two weeks ago by Kansas City in a 34-20 loss where they were outgained 517-228. Coming off that, I faded them last week in Washington and sure enough a “ho-hum” effort resulted in me getting a ½ point cover! It’s a double digit spread again this week for Baltimore, only this time at home. It’s against a Cincinnati team that’s been surprisingly competitive. The Bengals’ two losses this year have come by a total of eight points and they tied Philadelphia on the road. Last week finally saw Zac Taylor’s team break into the win column as they rolled up 33 points and 500+ yards on Jacksonville. Rookie QB Joe Burrow has been as good as advertised thus far, throwing for 300+ yards in three consecutive games. While the Ravens have had success in the past facing rookie QB’s at home and have NEVER lost a game in which they were DD favorites, I expect this game to be close. Cincy has a history of playing Baltimore relatively close, covering five of the last seven meetings including three SU wins. Even last season, they only lost by six here in Baltimore. Ten of the Bengals’ last 16 losses have been one-score games. The Ravens haven’t looked good the L2 weeks and Jackson is surprisingly only 4-8 ATS as a home favorite. 9* Cincinnati |
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10-10-20 | Miami-FL v. Clemson -14 | Top | 17-42 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show |
8* Clemson (7:30 ET): So this may seem like a lot of points to lay in a matchup between Top 10 teams, especially considering the fact underdog Miami is 3-0 ATS this year while favored Clemson is 0-3 ATS. But Clemson’s ATS mark certainly is in need of some context as the Tigers have had to lay 28 or more in every game thus far. I’ve played against them twice (at Wake Forest and vs Virginia), but now is the time to jump on board as October is typically the time when Dabo Swinney’s team REALLY starts to roll. Lay the points. I expect Clemson to be quite motivated for this game. That’s something you probably couldn’t say for any of the first three contests, yet the Tigers still won them all by at least 18 points. The closest margin came last week against Virginia and keep in mind Clemson gave up a late TD to make it seem closer than it actually was. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been asked to lay between 10.5 and 21 points. It is VERY rare to get them this low of a favorite at home. The last time they were -14 or less here was 2017! Miami is likely feeling quite good about itself with its 3-0 start and QB D’Eriq King playing even better than anticipated. But the Hurricanes have been outscored 92-3 in the L2 meetings w/ Clemson. Since 2015, the Tigers have gone 29-15-1 ATS following the first weekend in October and averaged an awesome 40.2 PPG. Over half of its wins in those games have been by three touchdowns! It’s rare to say a 2 TD favorite is in a “buy low” spot but Clemson has covered six of its last seven in the month of October. 8* Clemson |
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10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -1.5 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
9* Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Wildcats are 0-2, but there’s been some bad luck along the way + you’re talking about an SEC schedule. They actually outgained Auburn 384-324 in a 29-13 loss, but were -3 in turnovers, the most costly being an INT in the end zone late in the 1st half (totally changed the game). They also outgained Ole Miss last week 559-459, but missed the XP in OT and lost 42-41. That was a game they led by two touchdowns (at home) in the 2nd half. It’s time for UK to break through this week with a win. The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward. It was an impressive way for Mike Leach to start his tenure in Starkville, but unfortunately (for him) that was followed with an outright loss to Arkansas (as 16.5-point home favorites) last week. That was the Hogs’ first SEC win since 2017 (snapped 20-game losing streak). The answer to “how good the Bulldogs are” probably lies somewhere between those two results. They aren’t as good as they looked vs. LSU nor are they as bad as last week’s result suggests. That this number has been bet down tells me that MSU is still getting too much credit for the upset of LSU. I don’t see Leach winning his first two SEC road games as a dog. Kentucky came into 2020 w/ high hopes for Mark Stoops’ 8th season in Lexington. The home team has won five straight in this particular SEC rivalry and covered the spread in the last six. There were some other ridiculous things that went against Kentucky last week (fumbled at goal line two plays after a player should have scored a TD - but was celebrating too early and got tackled!). A Miss State team that’s turned it over four times in both games is the opponent they need to get back on track. 9* Kentucky |
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10-10-20 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +7.5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
8* Western Kentucky (7:30 ET): The Hilltoppers are 0-3 ATS, but at least they picked up a SU win last week. They won 20-17 at Middle Tennessee and while that was a battle of winless teams, WKU will take it. They’d previously fallen to Louisville and Liberty. I made the mistake of taking the points with them in that Louisville game (they lost by 14 as a 12.5-pt dog) and then Liberty was clearly a team not properly priced by the oddsmakers as they beat WKU outright, 30-24, as 14.5-point dogs. Now that the market has clearly shifted AGAINST the Hilltoppers, I feel that now is the time to back them again (1st time since L’ville game). Take the points. Marshall is 2-0 SU/ATS with an upset of Appalachian State under their belt. That upset occurred in their last game, but it was also three weeks ago as the Thundering Herd have since fallen victim to a COVID-19 cancellation (they were supposed to play Rice last weekend). It was the second time this year Marshall has had a game cancelled. I expect “rust” to be a bit of a factor Saturday night in Bowling Green and this Thundering Herd team has often struggled outside of Huntington. Prior to the start of the season, I would not have expected Marshall to be favored in this game, let alone by this many points. The Herd are just 2 for its last 9 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and 6-13 ATS its L19 as a favorite, period. They are 1-4 ATS L5 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points and 2-6 ATS when off B2B SU wins. Meanwhile, WKU is 16-6 ATS its L22 as a dog of 3.5 to 10 pts and 6-3 ATS L9 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. The Marshall passing game is still a question mark (QB Grant Wells was just 11 of 25 vs. App State). Despite losing each of the L3 years to Marshall (all by 7 pts or less), WKU is a perfect 6-0 ATS all-time in this C-USA rivalry. 8* Western Kentucky |
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10-10-20 | Florida State v. Notre Dame -20.5 | Top | 26-42 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 10 m | Show |
10* Notre Dame (7:30 ET): This spread should be closer to four touchdowns rather than three. In picking this one, it’s that simple for me as I’ll trust my own power rankings. Florida State is a complete mess right now having lost to Georgia Tech (as a 13-point home favorite) and Miami (52-10) and needing to come from behind to defeat FCS Jacksonville State. Because of COVID, Notre Dame has been off the L2 weeks. As a top five team, I expect them to be “ready to go” Saturday night in South Bend. Lay the points. This game marks the first time EVER that Florida State has been a double digit dog in back to back games vs. FBS opponents. They were +11.5 at Miami FL, an outrageous line in retrospect, and got totally humiliated in that one. It was 38-3 at halftime. The last five times the Seminoles have been DD dogs, not only have they lost, they’ve lost by an average of almost five touchdowns per game. Just to illustrate how far this one proud program has fallen, it was a DD dog just 10 times (in 497 games) from 1978-2017. This will now be the eighth time they’ve been a DD dog in the L34 games! Needless to say, 1st year HC Mike Norvell has his work cut out for him in Tallahassee. FSU was down 21-7 last week at home to Jacksonville State. A change was made at QB and that resulted in five straight TD drives. But that was against an FCS team. Notre Dame has won 20 straight in South Bend including 52-0 over South Florida three weeks ago. QB Ian Book is completing 62% of his passes while RB Williams has 174 yards rushing and WR Tremble has 100+ yds receiving. The ‘Noles are totally outclassed here and I love the fact this number has dipped below -21. 10* Notre Dame |
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10-10-20 | UTEP v. Louisiana Tech -14 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 9 m | Show |
8* Louisiana Tech (7:30 ET): UTEP is quite easily the worst 3-1 (SU) team in the country. Two of their three wins have come against FCS opposition (Stephen F Austin and Abilene Christian) and those wins were by a combined 14 points. The Miners’ most recent victory came at LA Monroe (31-6), who I happen to have ranked dead last among the 77 FBS teams that have played a game this season. UTEP actually came into that game as a 9.5-point underdog! The only other game they played was a 59-3 loss to Texas. So it’s not a question of “IF” the Miners will lose in Ruston, LA this Saturday night, but by “how many.” Louisiana Tech figures to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by BYU last Friday, 45-14. But, in terms of the opponent, it’s a huge drop in class this week for the Bulldogs, who you may recall I had in their opener as they went to Southern Miss as prevailed 31-30 as a 7.5-point underdog. In between the Southern Miss and BYU games, La Tech beat Houston Baptist 66-38, which is what you “should” do to a FCS opponent. With the threat of Hurricane Delta, it’s almost a lock that it will rain during this game. Still, I expect a LA Tech team averaging 37 PPG to have no problems against a foe that had won a combined two games the previous two seasons. Bulldogs QB Luke Anthony is 2nd in the country with 10 TD passes and that’s despite the fact he didn’t even start the opener. Despite facing two FCS opponents, UTEP is still averaging less than 20 PPG! Another thing to watch for is third down. UTEP’s defense has been very lucky on 3rd down thus far while La Tech’s has been just the opposite. The conversion rates both defenses are allowing should start moving closer to the mean and that’s more good news for the favorite. Lay the points. 8* Louisiana Tech |
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10-09-20 | Heat v. Lakers -7 | Top | 111-108 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 52 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (9:05 ET): This is the 36th time in NBA Finals history that a team has been up 3 games to 1. The ONLY time a team facing that deficit came back and won the series was four years ago when LeBron James and Cleveland shocked Golden State. When the Finals are 3-1, the series has ended in five games over 50% of the time (18 of 35 chances) and that’s what I’m banking on here as the Lakers look to close out the Heat. It’s been a nice run for Miami, but the bottom line is that they have been behind by double digits in 6 of the last 10 games and never led in the final 20 minutes in Game 4. Lay the points. The Heat looked to be “down and out” after losing the first two games of the series. Both Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic were injured. The team trailed by as many as 32 in Game 1 and also trailed virtually the entire way in Game 2. In those first two games, Miami was ahead for only 10:44 out of a possible 96 minutes and most of that was the first quarter of Game 1. A resilient effort in Game 3, led by Jimmy Butler’s 40-point triple double, briefly cast some doubt. But that was quickly put to rest in Game 4 where the Lakers held the Heat to 96 pts on 42.7% shooting, despite Adebayo returning to the lineup. Miami did cover the spread in Game 4, thanks to Tyler Herro draining a 3-pointer with 1.1 seconds remaining. While it was the quintessential “back door cover,” I do recognize that the Heat were “in the money” most of the way. Still, they did again trail most of the way and that was in an “off shooting night” from the Lakers. It remains fairly obvious who the better team is here and I expect the Lakers to win their 17th NBA Championship (1st since 2010) Friday night and do so in convincing fashion. Their previous three series have all ended in five games and they’ve won every close out game by at least nine points. 10* LA Lakers |
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10-09-20 | Louisville -4 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 22 m | Show |
10* Louisville (7:00 ET): Both of these teams opened their seasons with a win only to then drop two in a row. But that’s where the similarities end for ACC rivals Louisville and Georgia Tech. The Cardinals, who started the year ranked in the Top 25, played pretty sloppy against two very good teams (Miami and Pitt). Meanwhile, the Yellow Jackets were flat out dominated in losses to UCF and Syracuse, the latter of which isn’t anywhere near the caliber of opponent L’ville has seen to this point. I thought this number was too low when it initially opened. Now I see an incredible value in the Cardinals laying a short number on the road. Louisville opened its season with a 35-21 win over Western Kentucky. That should have been an even bigger blowout, but WKU got two “gift” drives that began inside the Cardinals’ 5-yard line. I’m not too worried about the losses to Miami and Pitt as Miami is clearly a very good team and then Pitt was just a three-point loss on the road. Cardinals QB Malik Cunnigham struggled against two of the better defenses in the ACC and threw three interceptions against Pitt. But he should bounce back here against a Ga Tech defense that has given up 86 points in its last two games. RB Javian Hawkins is averaging more than 5.0 YPC and WR Tutu Atwell has 229 yards and three TDs. Georgia Tech is just in its second year transitioning away from the triple option offense they ran under Paul Johnson. This is a massive rebuild for HC Geoff Collins and while the Yellow Jackets opened this season w/ a 16-13 upset of Florida State, that win doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it did last month. QB Jeff Sims has already thrown 8 INTs and the offense has also been missing last year’s leading rusher, Jordan Mason. Louisville held Pitt under 4.0 YPC two weeks ago. Speaking of defense, after giving up 49 points and 600+ total yds to Central Florida, Ga Tech then allowed 37 pts to a Syracuse team that had scored only 16 pts in its first two games. They’ve covered just 3 of their L13 home games. 10* Louisville |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears +4 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Thursday night game had the Bucs favored by three. It was reopened at -6 and while I’m “kicking myself” for not getting my own bet in sooner, I still think there’s plenty of value here on the Bears. My own power rankings suggested this line should be TB -1. I get that Chicago hasn’t looked great offensively, but let us not forget Tampa Bay trailed the Chargers 24-7 in the first half last week and that was at home. The Bears’ defense is good enough to at least keep this one within a field goal. Take the points. So far, Chicago has played eight halves of football. Five of them haven’t been very good, but they’re still 3-1 SU. After leading a miracle comeback the previous week in Atlanta, QB Nick Foles made his starting debut for the Bears last week vs. Indianapolis and it didn’t go so well. But he was facing the top defense in the league there. I expect this game to go much better for Foles. It shouldn’t take much with a defense that is allowing just 20.3 PPG so far. Tampa Bay hasn’t exactly faced a “murderer’s row” of QBs thus far. In fact, each of the L3 weeks has seen them face a team with a new starting QB this year: Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina, Jeff Driskel in Denver and Justin Herbert in LA. That made it pretty easy on the Bucs defense. Yes, Foles is in his first year with the Bears as well, but he’s a veteran. The Bucs are just 2-7 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and will be the classic case of a “public road favorite” in this one. Injuries are a much bigger factor for the Bucs right now than for the Bears as numerous skill position players have missed practice this week. 10* Chicago |
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10-08-20 | Tulane +7 v. Houston | Top | 31-49 | Loss | -113 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
10* Tulane (7:30 ET): It’s not very often that I would say a team getting a full TD on the road is better than it’s opponent, but that looks to be the case here. Tulane has a massive edge over Houston Thursday night in that they’ve already got three games under their belt while this will be the season opener for the home team (five games postponed due to COVID!). The last time we saw the Green Wave was two weeks ago and I had them in a 66-24 beatdown of Southern Miss (were only -3.5). They were obviously undervalued there and such is the case again this week. Tulane was able to hang 66 on Southern Miss despite a change at QB and losing their starting RB (Tyjae Spears) to an ACL injury. That speaks to the depth of talent they have on that side of the ball. True freshman Michael Pratt came in against USM and accounted for 182 total yards and three touchdowns. Running back, thankfully, is the Green Wave’s deepest position on offense. BOTH backups - Cameron Carroll and Stephon Huderson - went over 100 yards against Southern Miss! Now you might attribute the fact that Tulane had 572 total yards of offense to the fact they were playing a bad team. But note Houston’s defense allowed 34.0 PPG last season as the team went 4-8 SU. Tulane should be coming into this game a perfect 3-0 SU, but they blew a 24-0 halftime lead at home and lost to Navy. Still, they’ve won twice on the road already and upset Houston last season 38-31 as a five-point home dog. Off their worst season in over a decade, Houston lost QB D’Eriq King (transferred to Miami) and Clayton Tune (who did start several games LY) is going to have to deal with a Tulane defense that has NFL talent, not to mention 11 sacks and is 3rd among American Conference teams in yards per game allowed. Take the points. 10* Tulane |
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10-04-20 | Eagles v. 49ers -7 | Top | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:20 ET): Though Philadelphia is winless SU (0-2-1) and ATS (0-3), this line may seem a bit curious to some. San Francisco is as banged up as any team in the league right now, yet still laying a touchdown in primetime against a playoff team from a year ago. I urge you not to fall for the trap of taking the Eagles in this one, for they are simply a bad football team right now. Furthermore, the 49ers are getting healthier at wideout and backup QB Nick Mullens isn’t that much of a drop off from Jimmy Garoppolo. My own power rankings suggest this number is far too low! Lay it! This is the second straight year that the Eagles have opened 0-3 ATS. Just like last season, they’ve been favored to win each of the first three games this year. Yet, they are 0-2-1 SU after an embarrassing tie with the Bengals last week. Since jumping out to a 17-0 lead on Washington in Week 1, Philly has been outscored 87-42 over the last 10+ quarters. QB Carson Wentz has not looked good at all as he has the lowest passer rating in the league and committed seven turnovers. Making matters worse, the team was down to one healthy WR at practice on Thursday. Both DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey have been ruled out for this game. The San Francisco defense is allowing just 187.3 pass yards per game so far. Don’t look for any kind of turnaround from Wentz here. When you’re dealing with as many injuries as the 49ers are, it helps to play the Jets and Giants. They crushed those two teams - 31-13 and 36-9 respectively - and now own the league’s #1 overall point differential! While the Jets & Giants may be the two worst teams in the league right now, the Eagles aren’t too far behind. Unlike Philly, the Niners are getting healthier at WR as both George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are expected back here. Mullens threw for 343 yards LW w/o them and has 2,620 passing yds in nine career starts. Look for the home team to win big Sunday night. 10* San Francisco |
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10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins +6 | Top | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): This might seem like an “ugly” one, but despite being 3-0 SU/ATS, Seattle has the worst defensive numbers in the league right now. They are giving up a league-high 431 YPG passing and have allowed over 500 yards total in two of the three games. They have actually been outgained in all three games! All that has largely been overlooked due to the MVP-level of QB Russell Wilson, but eventually the poor defensive play is bound to catch up to the Seahawks. This was a lucky team last year (winning 11 games despite only a +7 point differential) and 21 of their L25 games have been decided by one score! It’s not likely we’ll see the Seahawks defense start to improve this week either. All-Pro safety Jamal Adams is out this week after a groin tear last week vs. Dallas. Three other members of the secondary are currently banged up and LB Jordyn Brooks, a rookie, is also likely to miss this game. In addition to giving up the most passing yards per game in the league through three weeks, Seattle is also allowing the most yards per attempt and completion. They are just vulnerable through the air and I look for savvy Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to take advantage. Fitzpatrick should also look to hand the ball off some in this game. Rookie RB Myles Gaskin is averaging 4.6 yards per touch. The Miami offensive line is also improved in pass protection, having permitted only five sacks to this point. After losing by 10 at New England in Week 1, the Dolphins have taken undefeated Buffalo to the wire and then blew out Jacksonville 31-13 last Thursday. They’ve had 10 days to prepare for Seattle while the Seahawks are making the longest road trip (in terms of miles) possible in the league this week. 8* Miami |
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10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team +14.5 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): If the Dolphins play is considered “ugly,” this is one where you’ll have to straight “hold your nose!” But you need not worry that I’ve lost my mind, rather this is a lot of points we’re getting against a Ravens team in a bad situation. They just got embarrassed Monday night by the Chiefs, getting outgained 517-228 in a 34-20 loss. It’s a short week to get over that and I think the loss will have a “carry over” type effect as they are now faced with the prospect of laying two touchdowns on the road. Take the points. Washington also lost 34-20 last week, albeit to a Cleveland team that Baltimore had previously blown out by 38-6. But don’t be fooled by Washington’s score from last week. They were basically dead even in total yardage and even led going into the 4th quarter. The problem was that they turned the ball over five times. Only one of the Browns’ six scoring drives DIDN’T start in opposing territory! It’s not often that Dwayne Haskins throws for more yards in a game than Lamar Jackson, but it happened last week. Jackson threw for just 97 yards in an awful performance. Yes, he and the Ravens are likely to bounce back with a win here. But it won’t be by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. I know some key pieces are out for Washington, including DE Chase Young and maybe WR Terry McLaurin, but at home I expect them to keep it closer than expected. 8* Washington |
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10-03-20 | Virginia +29 v. Clemson | Top | 23-41 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show |
10* Virginia (8:00 ET): Clemson has won its two games so far by a combined score of 86-13 (37-13 over Wake Forest and 49-0 over The Citadel), yet is actually 0-2 ATS as they faced massive spreads in both contests (-34.5, -50.5). They are once again massive favorites this week as they face a Virginia team they infamously drubbed in LY’s ACC Championship Game, 62-17. It’s not just Clemson, but all favorites of this size have struggled to cover this NCAAF season and UVA proved itself to be formidable enough last week against Duke. Take the points in this one. So far, all NCAAF favorites of 28 or more points this season are just 1-5 ATS including the two Clemson non-covers. We faded the Tigers in their first game as they allowed Wake Forest in through the backdoor. The reason Clemson failed to cover last week is that they took their starters out, including QB Trevor Lawrence, in the second quarter. This week is less than an ideal spot though as the Tigers have a huge, potential Top 10 showdown with Miami on deck. Don’t expect them to “open the playbook” too much against a team they easily beat last year. They’ll be saving some stuff for Miami. I was impressed with Virginia being able to hang 38 on Duke last week. That was the Cavaliers season opener. While forcing seven turnovers certainly helped, QB Brennan Armstrong (24-45, 269 yards) looked good as did WR Lavel Davis Jr (101 yds). These huge spreads figure to be an issue for Clemson all season (well, maybe not next week). Since it was an unusual offseason and the season is still young, don’t expect the Tigers to operate at peak performance quite yet. Virginia isn’t likely to pull the upset, but will take this game very seriously and keep it close enough to where they easily cover the spread. 10* Virginia |
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10-03-20 | Charlotte +6.5 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
9* Charlotte (4:00 ET): Florida Atlantic has yet to play a game this season as previously scheduled dates with Ga Southern and USF had to be called off due to COVID-19 concerns. I’ve been itching to play against the Owls here in 2020 as this is a team ripe for regression after LY’s school record 11 wins. Lane Kiffin bolted the program for Ole Miss and his replacement, Willie Taggart, is off a somewhat disastrous stint at Florida State. I don’t like the idea of this team laying points to a conference foe in its season opener. Charlotte made a bowl for the 1st time last year and went 7-6 SU for HC Will Healy. Their last two games have also been called off due to COVID, though it turned out Georgia State was a false positive. Unlike FAU, the 49ers have played a game and it was against Appalachian State. Despite being outgained fairly significantly, the 49ers still managed to cover the 17-point spread as they only lost 35-20. I see the offensive attack doing a lot better here as FAU lost its four top tacklers from a season ago. Charlotte does return its starting QB from last season, Chris Reynolds. This is an offense that led C-USA in rushing LY. All signs point down for FAU in 2020 as they forced 33 takeaways last year (most in the country), which is a number they can’t possibly repeat and they lost a ton of talent on both sides of the ball. Since these teams became conference rivals, the road team is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 ATS. I had FAU last year as they won 45-27 (as 1.5-point underdogs!) but this is a far less talented team this year. Charlotte QB Reynolds actually got hurt in the opener, but all the time off allowed him to heal and now he’s expected to start. Take the points! 9* Charlotte |
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10-03-20 | Texas A&M +18.5 v. Alabama | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (3:30 ET): This is a lot of points to be getting in a matchup of what (we were told) would be the top two teams in the SEC West this season. Obviously Alabama is #1. Texas A&M, expected to be this year’s top challenger, had a shaky first game vs. Vanderbilt. The Aggies could only manage a 17-12 win as 31.5-point home favorites. But it’s a much different pointspread this week and “the great equalizer” got Bama last week as they got backdoored by Missouri. I expect A&M to “show up” big time here. I think the Aggies’ closer than expected call last week can be attributed to numerous factors. One, it was the first game of the season. Two, there was an obvious “look ahead” to this game. Three, A&M fumbled five times and lost three. Despite the game being “too close for comfort,” the Aggies never trailed and the defense did its job. Also, RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 117 yards on just eight attempts. Everyone is seemingly counting them out this week, but that seems like an overreaction based on the preseason ranking. A&M is an experienced team with 17 starters back from LY including QB Kellen Mond, who did have a subpar game last week. I expect him to play a lot better here, even though he’s up against the #2 team in the country. This is a game they’ve been pointing to in College Station all throughout the summer and I can’t see Jimbo Fisher’s team getting blown out. Alabama is just 3-7 ATS its L10 SEC games while Texas A&M has covered 10 of 12 after allowing 20 pts or less in their previous game. 8* Texas A&M |
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10-02-20 | Heat +9.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
10* Miami (9:05 ET): The Heat were a trendy pick in Game 1 (+4.5) and early on things were looking great. They raced out to a 25-12 advantage with four minutes left in the 1st quarter. From that point forward though, it was a Lakers “avalanche” as the Purple & Gold seized the lead by the end of the 1Q and outscored Miami 104-73 the rest of the way. Adding injury to insult, Miami will very likely be without both Bam Adebayo (shoulder) and Goran Dragic (foot) in Game 2 (both listed as doubtful). What a way to start the Finals! Given the Game 1 result and the injury news, you would naturally expect the line to jump for Game 2. It has, by several points. I think it’s a “classic overreaction” that the public will fall for. While both Adebayo and Dragic are key contributors, the Heat have largely been getting it done “by committee” this postseason, which has seen them go 12-4 SU & ATS. Game 1 was just the third time they were beaten in regulation and they’ve yet to drop B2B games. They are a perfect 3-0 ATS off those previous three defeats. Jimmy Butler (who is dealing with an ankle injury himself) and Tyler Herro are still here and can carry the load offensively. Where the Heat will need to improve is at the defensive end as they allowed the Lakers to shoot at a 56% clip in the 1st half of Game 1 and 39.5% overall from 3-point range. I do not see those numbers repeating themselves here. This marks the 1st time Miami has been trailed in a series thus far and they are 10-3 SU/8-4-1 ATS off a DD loss this season. They are being undervalued for Game 2 and you should take the points. 10* Miami |
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10-01-20 | Broncos +2 v. Jets | Top | 37-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Denver (8:20 ET): This line opened up with Denver as the favorite, but quickly flipped upon the announcement that QB Brett Rypien would start for the Broncos. Rypien will already be the third different starting QB for the Broncos this season. While this seems dubious to say the least, I don’t think the line move towards the Jets is justified. Is Rypien really 4-5 points WORSE than last week’s starter Jeff Driskel? I don’t think so. Congrats if you grabbed the Jets when they were +3 earlier in the week, but betting on them to win is a different matter. I’m taking the points Thursday night. Denver wouldn’t be worth a look here normally, but facing the Jets on a Thursday night certainly opens the door. You have to remember that the Flyboys are also 0-3 SU this season, not to mention 0-3 ATS. The Broncos covered the number the first two weeks against a pair of teams that are a combined 6-0 SU this season (Tennessee and Pittsburgh). Things got out of hand quickly last week vs. Tampa Bay with them down 23-3 in the first half. An earlier turnover set the tone. Hopefully, Rypien can take care of the football, because if he can, the Jets are an easy victim. The Broncos aren’t the only team coming into Thursday night banged up. The Jets have a long injury list themselves, mostly on the offensive side of the ball. RB Le’Veon Bell as well as two receivers, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims, are out. Keep in mind the Jets offense ranks last or second to last in almost every statistical category. They’ve lost all three of their games by double digits, so this is very much a fade against a team that shouldn’t be favored over anybody right now. QB Sam Darnold threw TWO ‘pick-sixes’ last week at Indianapolis. Again, I disagree with the line move. 8* Denver |
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09-30-20 | Reds +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 5 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati Run Line (12:00 ET): This is a run line play only where I’m taking the Reds +1.5. I thought Cincy underachieved much of the year as this was supposed to be a breakout team the likes of which we saw in San Diego. They really didn’t hit their stride until late in the regular season (won 11 of last 14), but here they are in their first postseason since 2013. With the best starting rotation in the National League, the Reds should prove to be a “difficult out” as the Braves are set to find out in Round 1. Runs figure to be scarce in this series opener, so that makes the RL an even more “attractive option.” Trevor Bauer went 5-4 in 11 starts for the Reds this year (6-5 TSR). But that completely undersells just how well he pitched. He led the NL in ERA (1.73) and strikeouts (100). His WHIP (0.795) was also outrageous and the best among NL starters w/ at least nine outings. Bauer made it through six innings in all but one start. There were only three starts where he allowed more than two runs. Bauer getting +1.5 is obviously a major reason we’re taking the Reds in this situation. Now opposing Bauer will be Max Fried, an outstanding hurler in his own right that didn’t drop a single regular season start. But Fried has thrown just six innings since Sept 5, leaving him as a bit of a question mark. Going up against Bauer, the margin for error is very slim. No Reds’ opponent scored more than five runs when Bauer started this season and 9 of the 11 scored three runs or fewer. Yes, Atlanta has the vastly superior offense in this matchup, but look for that to be neutralized by the Reds’ superior starting rotation, beginning w/ Bauer in Game 1. 8* Cincinnati Run Line (+1.5) |
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09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens -3 | Top | 34-20 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Over its last five games, Kansas City has found itself down by double digits four times. Remarkably, they have won all five of those games, including the Super Bowl. They’ve even covered the spread in all but one, that being last week’s 23-20 OT win over the Chargers. That win required not one but TWO 58-yard field goals from Harrison Butker. But, as mentioned above, the Chiefs’ ATS win streak (which had been at 10 straight) did end. Now it’s time for their 11-game SU win streak to end as well. Baltimore has won its last 14 regular season games. You’d have to go all the way back to Week 4 of last season when they lost at home (to Cleveland!) to find the last regular season loss. The Ravens have been more impressive than the Chiefs in the first two games, dominating the Browns and Texans by an average of 24.5 PPG. They easily covered the spread in both games while also winning the total yardage battle. Something else that’s worth noting is Kansas City is being outgained on a yards per play basis this year. The Ravens are at home, laying a short number, thus I’ve got to take them no matter the opponent. Kansas City has been great in the past as an underdog w/ Mahomes as QB, but they’ve also never had to face an opponent that’s this good. Don’t forget that while KC won the Super Bowl, Baltimore was the more impressive team in the regular season last year. The Ravens are 16-8 ATS all-time on MNF. They have lost to the Chiefs each of the L2 years (and are 0-3 against them since ‘15), so don’t discount the “revenge factor” either. 8* Baltimore |
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09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos +6.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Denver (4:25 ET): This is the game this week where my power rankings differ the most from the actual game line. Now my power rankings obviously don’t know about Denver’s injury situation, the most notable being at QB, but still I believe they’ve been “downgraded” too much for this week’s tilt vs. Tampa Bay. The Broncos are actually 2-0 ATS so far having lost by a total of just seven points to the Titans and Steelers, two teams that are a combined 4-0 SU. Even with Tom Brady, the Bucs haven’t been impressive enough to justify being in this kind of price range on the road. Take the points. Because of Brady, the Buccaneers came into 2020 with very high expectations. Some might even say unreasonable expectations. They’re likely to be favored in as many 13 games, which is crazy for a team that won just 7 games LY and has a 40+ year old starting QB. While they did win last week, that was at home vs. Carolina, who is one of the worst teams in the league. While they played the Saints tough in New Orleans, they still lost by double digits and keep in mind that the Saints just lost to the Raiders Monday night. Tampa Bay was actually outgained by Carolina LW, 427-339. They were fortunate to force four turnovers. But concerning is the fact that Brady seems to have inherited former QB James Winston’s turnover bug. The Bucs have five of those in two games. Over the L18 games, the Broncos have gone 11-7 ATS and that includes 6-5 when Drew Lock is NOT the starting QB. Jeff Driskell will start in Week 3 and he very nearly led a come from behind victory at Pittsburgh last week. Brady is just 2-4 ATS L6 tries as a road favorite of 6+ points. 8* Denver |
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09-27-20 | 49ers v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 36-9 | Loss | -112 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (1:00 ET): Who would have thought that without both Saquon Barkley (out for year) and Sterling Shepard it would be the Giants dealing with LESS issues on the injury front? The 49ers come into Week 3 as banged up as any team I can ever recall. They will be without their two top running backs, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, their top three defensive players (Bosa, Thomas, Sherman) and top pass catcher. It will be Nick Mullens starting Sunday as the team plays for the second straight week at Giants Stadium. Last week, the 49ers still managed to down the Jets 31-13. But that’s arguably the worst team in football they were up against and they already had the lead when the injuries began to pile up. In fact, they scored a TD on their first offensive play from scrimmage. They can’t count on doing so again here as the Giants defense has played much better than expected, giving up only 43 total pts in two games including only 10 in the second half. Even w/o Barkley, they very nearly came from behind to defeat Chicago on the road last week, a game where they allowed just 304 total yards. Even with a poor ATS history as a home dog of 7 points or less, I see the Giants potentially pulling the outright upset here. The 49ers did stay out East all week, but even under a normal circumstance this is a tough spot. That they lost so many players last week only compounds matters. Facing a 49ers’ defense that is a shell of its former self, I expect Giants QB Daniel Jones and the rest of the offense to have a surprisingly good day. The 49ers were likely to regress this season anyway; the injuries pretty much confirm that. 8* NY Giants |
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09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Don’t blame the Texans too much for being 0-2; all they’ve had to do so far is face the Chiefs and the Ravens. Those are the two best teams in the AFC, if not the entire NFL. The task is only slightly less formidable in Week 3 when they travel to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers. The Steelers, like those other teams, are also 2-0. But last week at home they only barely survived a Broncos team with Jeff Driskell at QB. This line has come down for a reason and I smell upset. Believe it or not, but Houston actually outgained KC and Baltimore on a per play basis. Being -3 in TO margin to those two means trouble though and that’s what Houston was. This was a team that started 0-3 SU in 2018 and still found a way to make the playoffs. They also made the playoffs after an 0-2 start in 2015. So they won’t be hanging their heads yet. ''That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind,'' DeShaun Watson said. ''Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now.'' Houston still has Watson at QB and he’s far better than any QB the Steelers have faced thus far. I look for Watson to have a big game here and for WR Will Fuller to bounce back here after being held w/o a catch by Baltimore. The Texans are 8-1 ATS their last nine tries off a DD loss at home. Again, Pittsburgh needed to make a late stop LW vs. Denver, up 26-21, to preserve the win against a team playing w/ a backup QB in an emergency situation. The Black & Gold has covered just two of the last eight times it’s been a home favorite. 8* Houston |
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09-26-20 | Troy +14.5 v. BYU | Top | 7-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
8* Troy (10:15 ET): Finally, a chance to win late night on College Football Saturday! Both Troy and BYU enter this second game of the season off blowout victories. BYU’s came all the way back on September 7th when they humiliated Navy 55-3 in Annapolis. Troy also went on the road for its opener and they came away with a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. That one made me happy as I laid the modest spread with the Trojans. Now that they’re underdogs here, by two touchdowns, I like them even more! The fact BYU has been off for 19 days is a disadvantage in my book. The reason for the long layoff should be obvious as the Cougars were yet another team dealing with COVID-19. As many as 10 players tested positive while 22 had to go into quarantine. This obviously creates an issue for practicing as some had to be cancelled while others saw players broken up into small groups of 10. As impressive as the win over Navy was, BYU can’t possibly duplicate that kind of performance under the current circumstances. Another bad sign is the fact BYU is just 1-7 ATS the last eight times it has been favored. Troy looked even better than expected against Middle Tennessee, doubling the opposition in total yardage. As noted in last week’s analysis, the Trojans were a lot better LY than their 5-7 SU record would seem to indicate. All five wins were by at least three touchdowns while three of the seven losses were one-score games. The only teams they struggled against were Missouri (SEC team) and then the two that played for the SBC Title (App State, Louisiana). QB Gunnar Watson has his top SEVEN pass catchers back from 2019 and this offense was actually 18th in the country at 458 YPG last season. 8* Troy |
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09-26-20 | Kansas v. Baylor -17.5 | Top | 14-47 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
9* Baylor (7:30 ET): The previous two years saw Baylor improve it’s win total from 1 to 7 to 11. That was a remarkable coaching effort from Matt Rhule, which is why he’s now in the NFL The Dave Aranda era is now set to begin in Waco and the former Wisconsin & LSU defensive coordinator inherits a squad that virtually everyone believes will regress in 2020. Fortunately for Aranda, he’s opening up against Kansas, the bottom-feeder of the Big 12 that just lost at home to Coastal Carolina (by 15 pts!) two weeks ago. Baylor has beaten Kansas 10 straight times, averaging 576.7 YPG in the process. Last year, it was 61-6 in Lawrence and Bears were “only” a 14-point favorite in that one, if you can believe it. While there are a lot of unknowns right now with this team, what we do know is that Kansas remains very bad. The Jayhawks were -3 in turnovers vs. Coastal Carolina, but what you really need to know is they were down 28-0 (at home) in the final minute of the first half! Over the L10 years, KU is just 6-83 SU in conference play, never winning more than one game in any season. This is Baylor’s third attempt at starting their season. COVID-19 has gotten in the way both times so far, but Aranda said four days ago that those issues were behind the team. The Bears really could not have asked for a better opponent. Maybe it’s the fact they’ve had to postpone twice, or the unknown factor of a new coaching staff, but this line opened WAY too low IMO. That it’s actually been bet DOWN is pure lunacy as Kansas isn’t going to win a conference game all season. 9* Baylor |
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09-26-20 | Duke +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
8* Duke (4:00 ET): The Blue Devils are 0-2, but that’s actually quite understandable. They opened the season at Notre Dame, whom they played tough in a 27-13 loss (was 17-13 heading into the 4Q). Last week’s 26-6 home loss to Boston College looks bad, and I was certainly glad it happened (as I had B.C.), but that result can directly be attributed to the fact Duke turned the ball over FIVE times. Total yardage was basically even. Four of the five turnovers took place in the red zone where the Blue Devils have now scored just one TD in seven trips this season! Having not played a game yet, Virginia is a bit of an “unknown” coming into this afternoon. But what we do know is they’ll definitely miss QB Bryce Perkins, who graduated and was essentially the Hoos’ entire offense last season. You have to think that UVA is at a severe disadvantage here facing a team that’s already played twice, even if the game is at home and they are 5-0 SU/ATS the L5 seasons vs. the Blue Devils. That recent head to head record and what has transpired the L2 wks will certainly have Duke motivated this week. Under HC David Cutcliffe, this team has been tremendous as an underdog, going 11-5 ATS L16 tries. All those turnovers last week couldn’t have happened at a worse time as they turned what could have been a SU win into a 20-point loss. The defensive front has looked good in both games against superior O-lines than what they’ll see here. 8* Duke |
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09-26-20 | Texas -17.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 63-56 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
10* Texas (3:30 ET): While they were ultimately victorious, Texas Tech’s performance in the season opener could hardly be called “good.” They gave up 600 yards to Houston Baptist, which is a FCS school and not a very good one at that. Even more frightening is that the Red Raiders needed to prevent a 2-pt conversion w/ 3:23 left to hold on for the 35-33 victory. Now, the Lubbock faithful will point to the fact that over a dozen players missed the game due to COVID-19. Still, I don’t think that excuses the poor performance. There was nothing poor about the way Texas opened its season. In what HC Tom Herman called a “scrimmage,” the Longhorns blasted UTEP 59-3 as a 45-point favorite. QB Sam Ehlinger threw for 426 yards and five touchdowns -- in the first half! Texas, now ranked 8th in the country, had nearly 700 yards of total offense and didn’t even try in the second half. You can imagine how they have to be licking their chops going against a defense that just gave up 600 yards to a FCS school. Texas is already 8-2 ATS the L10 meetings vs. TT. Last year’s matchup in Austin saw the Horns win 49-24 as a nine-point favorite. They are an even stronger team in 2020, thus it’s not surprising to see the line significantly higher even though this game is being played on the road. The last two times they’ve played, Texas has scored a total of 90 points on Texas Tech. I’ve got this line right around 24 points, so even after the line move we’re still getting plenty of value. This is a really good team that should be able to “name the score” Saturday afternoon. 10* Texas |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia +6.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): I’m proud to say I was a little “ahead of the curve” when it came to fading Oklahoma State, having already done so last week when they could barely beat Tulsa. Now losing QB Spencer Sanders to injury early on didn’t help. But the fact the Pokes needed to outscore the Golden Hurricane 13-0 in the 4Q last week, just to get a SU win, doesn’t bode well as they are set to begin conference play. Sanders could return here, despite being in a walking boot earlier this week, but clearly wouldn’t be at full strength. With the Sanders injury, WVU has to smell “blood in the water.” The Mountaineers were 56-10 winners in their opener (vs. FCS Eastern Kentucky) and have had two weeks to prepare for this game. It’s a matchup they’ve likely had “circled” in Morgantown for awhile. Including LY’s 20-13 loss, WVU has lost five in a row to the Cowboys, also going 0-4-1 ATS. But three of those losses were by seven points or less. The Mountaineers are undeniably better in HC Neal Brown’s 2nd season. Oklahoma State won last week because its defense was able to limit Tulsa to 278 total yards and 0 for 12 on third down. As you might suspect, WVU has a much more prolific offense than Tulsa. Keep in mind that Tulsa was dealing with several key absences last week themselves, most notably at the RB position. The fact OSU has four new starters on the offensive line this year is a big deal. WVU’s defensive front should be able to take full advantage of that. Big statement game for the underdog. 8* West Virginia |
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09-26-20 | Tulane -3 v. Southern Miss | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
8* Tulane (2:30 ET): Two games in and it would be fair to say Tulane’s season has been defined by “comebacks.” One went their way, a 27-24 win over South Alabama in the opener where the Green Wave battled back from an early 24-6 deficit. But then last week saw them lose by the same 27-24 score to Navy after blowing their own 24-0 lead. There’s basically two ways this next game can go for Willie Fritz’s team: either there’s a hangover or they come out extra motivated. I’m betting on the latter. Southern Mississippi’s season also started in Mobile against South Alabama. Only they lost outright, as a 12-point favorite, 32-21. Following that loss, (now former) HC Jay Hopson abruptly resigned! Talk about an auspicious way to start your season! Co-OC Scott Walden is now the interim coach in Hattiesburg and I told you that he was stepping into a near-impossible situation vs. Louisiana Tech. Somehow, the Golden Eagles were still favored to win, so I faded and sure enough La Tech pulled the outright upset with the go-ahead TD in the final minute. Oddsmakers have at least “learned their lesson” w/ USM this week by not favoring them. But still, this line ought to be closer to a full TD. Having started 0-2 and unexpectedly losing their HC, the Golden Eagles remain in a very fragile position. While this is USM’s third straight home game and Tulane hasn’t been that great on the road, note South Alabama came here and won when they hadn’t previously beaten a FBS team on the road since 2017! Tulane also holds a convincing 30-13 win over Southern Miss in LY’s Armed Forces Bowl. 8* Tulane |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU +2.5 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
8* TCU (1:30 ET): TCU’s season was supposed to begin on September 11th against SMU, but that had to be scrapped because of positive coronavirus tests. Instead, they’ll now open the season with a game against Big XII rival Iowa State. This is a big revenge spot for the Horned Frogs, who lost 49-24 in Ames last season. That was with ISU getting a big game from its QB Brock Purdy and TCU being in the midst of a down season. The Horned Frogs project to be a lot better this year and now the game is in Fort Worth. Iowa State already played a game and it didn’t go as planned. Coming in as the #23 ranked team in the country, they lost at home to Louisiana (who is now #19 in the country), 31-14 as 13-pt favorites. It’s not that the Cyclones were beaten that badly ‘in the boxscore.’ (They actually outgained LA 303-272). But two turnovers really hurt and Purdy had a shockingly poor game with just 180 total yards (35 rushing). He completed less than 50% of his pass attempts. ISU is now 0-5-1 ATS its L6 games as a favorite. TCU was just 5-7 SU last season and lost six of its final eight games. It was their worst season (record-wise) since 2013 (went 4-8 SU). They bounced back the next year to go 12-1 SU! HC Gary Patterson typically does a very good job and while he’s got a bit of a question mark at QB right now (both Downing and Duggan expected to play), he’s got a defense that should certainly overwhelm the ISU receivers like Louisiana did (if not more so!). TCU has not lost at home to Iowa State since 2012. Take the points. 8* TCU |
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09-25-20 | Heat v. Celtics -3 | Top | 108-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:35 ET): After jumping out to big leads in each of the first three games, the Celtics found themselves playing from behind almost the entire time in Game 4. That was an unfortunate result on this end with Boston being my Game of the Year. Quite frankly, the Celtics should be disgusted with themselves that they aren’t at least tied with the Heat in this Eastern Conference Finals. The total points scored in this series is dead even (441-441) though four games. Now facing a “win or go home” scenario, the Celtics are the call again Friday night. Boston has outshot and outrebounded Miami in this series. But turnovers and second-chance opportunities have been the story as the Heat are averaging six more shot attempts per game, largely due to the fact they are forcing an average of 16 turnovers per game. In Games 2 & 4, the Heat have scored 43 points off 39 Celtics turnovers. That’s unacceptable if you are Boston. So was giving up 37 points to Tyler Herro in Game 4. But you already knew that, if you watched that game. Now is when I’ll remind you that Boston has been up by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (lost in OT), 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (lost by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3 (won). This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). I still believe the Celtics are the better team here. Miami’s three-point shooting has gone down in every game. With the season on the line, look for Boston to take better care of the basketball tonight and improve to 12-5 ATS when off a SU loss as a favorite. (Miami just 4-9 ATS off SU win as dog). 10* Boston |
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09-25-20 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. UTSA | Top | 35-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Middle Tennessee (8:00 ET): So much for being improved! Middle Tennessee has been a disaster in the early going, getting outscored 89-14 in lopsided losses to Army (42-0) and Troy (47-14). Despite the fact I faded the Blue Raiders in that loss to Troy last week, it was shocking to see how poorly they played. Three turnovers (following four more vs. Army) and QB Asher O’Hara (3,600 total yds & 29 TDs LY) was actually benched. But as bad as things have been thus far in Murfreesboro, I can’t believe MTSU is getting this many points against UTSA. This is the most unique C-USA opener in history. Originally, UTSA was going to face Memphis. But the Tigers had to bow out due to a COVID-19 outbreak. That left an open spot on the schedule and MTSU stepped in. This change was made just last week, giving both sides very little time to prepare for an opponent they are not that familiar with, despite being conference rivals. There have been only two all-time meetings, the most recent taking place in 2016. The fact MTSU HC Rick Stockstill is being coy about his QB situation puts UTSA in a tough spot, especially laying points. UTSA might be 2-0, but they’ve beaten a terrible Texas State team (in double overtime) and then SF Austin (a FCS school). As bad as MTSU has looked through two games, they are still the toughest opponent UTSA has faced so far. The Blue Raiders are also desperate, which has me grabbing the points. UTSA infamously almost gave away a 31-14 lead to Texas State in the opener. I had them as they were getting 6.5 points. But now they are favored in a FBS game for just the 1st time since 2018. They are 0-4-1 ATS L5 as a favorite (vs. FBS) and are just 4-13-1 ATS L18 home games. 10* Middle Tennessee |
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09-25-20 | Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 v. Hertha Berlin | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.5 (2:30 PM ET): Eintracht Frankfurt had to be terribly disappointed with the result from their first Bundesliga match of the 2020-21 season. Facing promoted Arminia Bielefeld, all the Die Adler could muster was a 1-1 draw. Considering how they really dominated possession, that should have been a win. This is a side that fell just four points shy of Europa League qualification last season, so turning these draws into wins is paramount. Meanwhile, Hertha Berlin is one of seven sides in the league that started out with a win. They downed Werder Bremen 4-1. That opponent was in total disarray from the outset, so I wouldn’t go reading too much into it. Hertha isn’t a team likely to finish near the top of the table this season. They actually finished one point behind Frankfurt last season. While Hertha has lost just one time in its previous five home affairs, that loss occurred to Frankfurt and it was by a score of 4-1. The sides also played to a 2-2 draw in Frankfurt last season. Coming off the disappointing draw, I expect an aggressive Frankfurt team here and taking the goal line is the way to go as it’ll give us a win in case of another draw. As I stated in last week’s analysis, Frankfurt is an underrated club this season. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): So much for “tanking.” The Jaguars have been far more competitive than was expected the first two weeks, knocking off Indianapolis here at home and then nearly upsetting Tennessee on the road. That 2-0 ATS start has them favored at home on a short week and honestly this is probably one of the few instances we’d ever consider laying points with the Jags. Miami, who ironically overachieved LY in what was supposed to be a “tanking” season, has looked poor in the first two games, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Some felt Miami was going to be able to contend in the AFC East this season. I did not. Two weeks in and their fans are already calling for Tua! Losses to the Patriots and Bills have been a “cold dose of reality” as both contests saw the Dolphins play from behind the whole way. The defense was atrocious last week as it allowed Buffalo to gain 8.9 yards per play! That’s good news for Jags QB Gardner Minshew II, who has been surprisingly efficient so far in completing over 75% of his passes. The Dolphins’ pass defense is at the bottom of the league right now. Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in Thursday night home games. They could easily be 2-0 heading into this game, but missed an XP early in the 4Q LW at Tennessee and then gave up the GW FG in the final two minutes. Special teams play wasn’t good either and the defense didn’t create much pressure. But despite losing, the Jags outgained the Titans 480-354. I can’t see the Dolphins correcting their issues on a short week, playing on the road. 10* Jacksonville |
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09-24-20 | UAB -6.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
10* UAB (7:30 ET): These teams are no strangers to playing on Thursday night. South Alabama opened its season on a Thursday with a 32-21 upset over Southern Miss as 12-point underdogs (Southern Miss’ coach then resigned). A week later, it was UAB’s turn to play on a Thursday and they lost 31-14 down in Miami. Considering who the opponent was, the Blazers need not hang their heads in shame over that result. While they are 0-2 ATS (also failed to cover in a win over Central Arkansas) and South Alabama is 2-0 ATS (almost upset Tulane in Week 2), this matchup favors the road team and I’ll lay the points in this one. The last 3+ seasons have seen UAB win a total of 28 games and make B2B C-USA Title Game appearances. Keep in mind the program ceased to exist for the two years prior! HC Bill Clark has done a remarkable job here, considering that circumstance, and has one of the most experienced teams in the country in 2020. The 45-35 win over Central Arkansas was not as close as the final score indicates as the Blazers turned it over three times, but still had a 459-238 total yardage advantage. Two Central Arkansas’ TD drives were 15 yards or less and they had a defensive score as well. The Miami loss was simply a case of running into a better football team. South Alabama is the kind of opponent UAB typically feasts on. The Jaguars won only TWO games LY. UAB is 4-1 ATS off a bye week as well as 18-3 SU (14-7 ATS) its L21 games as a favorite. They’ve also covered five of six against Sun Belt teams. While UAB did lose starting QB Tyler Johnston III to an injury (non-throwing shoulder), thankfully backup Bryson Lucero has seen action in both games thus far and is actually averaging more yards per attempt than Johnston was. South Alabama’s passing game - also using 2 different QB’s - has been effective thus far. But the UAB defense has yet to allow a 200+ yd passing day this season. South Alabama struggles to run the ball (3.4 YPC) and that will cost them here. 10* UAB |
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09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:35 ET): The Celtics were FINALLY able to put away the Heat in Game 3. It wasn’t easy, but they ended up prevailing 117-106 and thus covered the 3-pt spread. For Miami, the loss marked the first time this postseason that they lost a game in regulation. But don’t let that distinction fool you into thinking they’ve been anywhere close to dominant in the Eastern Conference Finals. In fact, it’s been quite the reverse. In all three games in this series, they’ve been down double-digits! The Heat’s propensity for starting slow caused Jimmy Butler to quip “I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently.” For the record, in this series the Heat have trailed by 14 in the 4Q of Game 1 (won in OT), by 15 in the 3Q of Game 2 (won by 5) and then by as many as 20 in Game 3. While they did end up losing by 11 points, the Heat actually got within 5 in the final minute of Game 3. This reminds me a bit of Boston’s last series with Toronto. The four Celtics’ wins in that series were by a combined 48 points while the three losses were by a total of 11 (one coming in 2 OT and another at the buzzer). The Celtics were pretty clearly better than the Raptors, although it took them seven games to advance. I also think the Celtics are better than the Heat. They could easily be up 3-0 in this series and thus be in position for the sweep Wednesday night. They’re not, but the way this series has gone is definitely worth noting. Miami’s shooting - both overall and from three-point range, has declined with each passing game in the series. In Game 3, Boston crushed Miami in points in the paint, 60-36. It must also be pointed out that Gordon Hayward is now back and while he didn’t have the greatest statline, his presence was still key to attacking Miami’s zone defense. The Celtics are also a better defensive team than the Heat. They have yet to allow more than 106 points in regulation this entire postseason! They are also now 23-8-1 ATS their L32 playoff games when favored. 10* Boston |
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09-21-20 | Phillies v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (6:05 ET): First off, be sure to note that we’re playing the Nationals on the RUN LINE here (+1.5). While it’s been quite the disappointing season overall for the World Series Champs, perhaps the most frustrating thing is an 0-6 head to head record with the division rival Phillies. Even that record up and they might very well still be viable for the playoffs heading into the final week of the regular season. I believe they’re going to get AT LEAST one in this series, so take them on the RL Monday just to be safe. Now Washington did play a doubleheader on Sunday. Despite allowing just two runs in 14 innings, they had to settle for a split with Miami. The Nationals lost the first game 2-1 before roaring back to take the second game 15-0. It was their second shutout of the series, although they still ended up dropping three of five overall to the Marlins (teams played two doubleheaders). I realize that Anibal Sanchez (Monday’s starter) has mostly struggled in 2020, but he’ll be facing a severely depleted Phillies lineup tonight. The Phillies were already without J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins from their every day lineup. So you can imagine the feeling when Bryce Harper exited Sunday’s game vs. Toronto (a 6-3 loss) with back tightness. Harper’s status is questionable for Monday and beyond. The Phils will have to heavily lean on starter Zach Wheeler tonight, but the problem is he’s 6-10 all-time vs. the Nats with a 4.71 ERA in 19 starts. The Phillies are a sub-.500 team on the road this year, not to mention 31 games under the L3 seasons! 8* Run Line Washington |
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09-20-20 | Lions +7 v. Packers | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): “The Lions should have won last week” is something Lions fans are probably sick of hearing at this point. However, last week may have taken the cake. Since 2006, NFL teams with a 17+ point lead entering the 4Q were 779-2 SU. That record is now 779-3 SU after the Lions inexplicably gave up three touchdowns to Mitch Trubisky (who had been playing HORRIBLE up to that point) last week. That 27-23 loss marked Detroit’s 11th when leading in the 4Q under Matt Patricia, who started here in 2018. It was their 10th loss in a row overall and they are just 1-9 SU L10 games decided by 8 pts or less. Last year’s two meetings between the Packers & Lions pretty much encapsulated the two seasons. Consider that GB never led in regulation in either game. Yet they won both by kicking GW field goals as time expired. Per Elias, it was just the second time EVER a team swept a season series in which it never held a lead in regulation (the other was in 1977). The Packers were an extremely fraudulent 13-3 SU team a year ago as they went 9-1 SU In games decided by 8 pts or less and only outscored opponents by 63 points. For comparison, the 10-6 Vikings had a +104 point differential LY. This is clearly a contrarian play as much is being made over the Lions injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Aaron Rodgers had a big game last week in Minnesota, but for some reason always has his share of problems with the Lions. Including LY’s two miraculous escapes, the Packers are 0-6 ATS the L3 years vs. Detroit and just 2-4 SU. Given how lopsided public betting figures to be on this game, it’s interesting the number hasn’t moved. Given that they allowed 7.8 yards per play last week (league-high) to Minnesota, maybe it's the Packers defense that everyone needs to be concerned about. Take the points. 10* Detroit |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys -3.5 | Top | 39-40 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Dallas (1:00 ET): I’ve watched as this line has been bet down all week and decided now is the time to act. I just can’t see the Cowboys, a team I project to finish near the top of the NFC, starting 0-2. I will caution you not to put much stock inthe fact Atlanta gained 500+ yards against Seattle last week. They trailed most of the way and ran a TON of plays. The Falcons also don’t have the same caliber of defense as the Rams, who were able to hold Dallas to 17 points last week. The line move is an overreaction to America’s Team losing a national TV game where they were favored. Lay the points. Cowboys QB Dak Prescott should have a big game Sunday. Last week, Russell Wilson completed 31 of 35 pass attempts against this Falcons’ defense for 322 yards and four touchdowns. Cornerback is an issue for Atlanta and that’s a problem when facing a Dallas offense that may have the best group of starting WR’s in the league. The “success” this Atlanta defense had in the 2nd half of last season may have saved HC Dan Quinn’s job, but it was artificial, built on facing mostly weak offenses. While it is true Atlanta has covered each of its last four road games (were at home LW), it is also true that they were just 4-16 ATS in the 20 previous road games. Dallas has covered three consecutive home openers and this line should be at where it opened. There will be fans present. The Cowboys are a much better team than the Falcons and that should be obvious by the time this one is over. 10* Dallas |