Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-11-21 | Ravens v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:20 ET): The Dolphins got me last week, covering the spread in a 17-9 win over the Texans. In my analysis for that game, I admitted that it was a bit risky to go with Houston, even though Miami came in with the same 1-7 SU record. For what it’s worth, the Texans did have their chance to cover, but elected to kick a field goal (down 11) rather than go for a TD at the three-yard line. But that’s “water under the bridge” now. It’s a new week and the Dolphins are hosting Baltimore Thursday night. My recommendation here is to take the points. You might be a little shocked by that, given my decision to fade Miami last week against a lowly team like the Texans. But the ‘Fins are obviously not favored in this game and there can be no denying that Baltimore has been “living dangerously” this season. Four of the Ravens six victories have been by six points or less, two of them requiring overtime. Last week saw them battle back from a 14-point deficit in the 2H to beat Minnesota 34-31 in OT. While the Ravens held the edge in total yards in that game, 500-318, that’s a little misleading in that they ran 37 more plays than the Vikings. John Harbaugh’s team was actually outgained on a per play basis by Minnesota. As mentioned above, last week wasn’t the first close call Baltimore has pulled out this season. The last time they played in primetime, they were down 16 with just over 10 minutes to go against Indianapolis. They won that game in OT as well. Don’t forget about when they needed a 66-yard FG to beat Detroit or a late fumble to win by 1 against KC (a game the Ravens led for only 3:14). Another thing to consider here is that the Ravens are playing on the road for the first time in over a month. Jacoby Brissett possibly starting again for Miami is a non-issue for me as he’s already proven he’s no downgrade from Tua. 10* Miami |
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11-11-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis +12 v. Evansville | Top | 40-60 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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11-11-21 | George Washington v. Maryland -18.5 | Top | 64-71 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Maryland (6:30 ET): The Terrapins are ranked #21 in the country at the start of the new College Basketball season. They opened the season with a fairly comfortable 83-69 win over Quinnipiac on Tuesday. Though they did not cover the large 23.5-point spread in that game, they were up big most of the way. It was 41-25 at halftime and the lead grew to as big as 25 points in the second half. Quinnipiac went on a 9-2 run over the final four minutes to steal the cover though. While that’s always a concern when laying a big number, expect the Terps to leave with the cash tonight against George Washington. GW has a LOT of new faces entering the 2021-22 season. There are NINE new transfers on the squad, more than any other team in the country. Only ONE player is left from last season, the first under HC Jamion Christian. So I expect there to be lots of “growing pains” for the Colonials early on. They barely snuck by St. Francis (PA) on Tuesday, winning only 75-72 as seven-point chalk. That’s despite the fact St. Francis shot only 1 of 9 from three-point range in the game. It’s obviously a big step up in class for GW here tonight and I don’t think they’re ready for it. Maryland has plenty of size, which should give GW all sorts of problems in this one. The Terrapins also have plenty of depth. “We have seven starters,” said HC Mark Turgeon after Tuesday’s season opening win. GW was the worst defensive team in the Atlantic 10 a season ago and figures to struggle at that end of the floor yet again as all the new pieces try and come together. The Colonials have covered just one of their last five games as a road dog of 12.5 or more points. That trend continues in this one. 8* Maryland |
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11-10-21 | Wolves +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 110-123 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (10:05 ET): The T’wolves were extremely unfortunate not to cover the spread Monday in Memphis. First off, they led by 16 points in the fourth quarter. After blowing the entirety of that lead, they were still “in the money” (as 4.5-point underdogs) when Karl-Anthony Towns decided to hit a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation to tie the game up. You can guess what came next. Minnesota lost by seven in overtime. Tonight’s assignment in Golden State may look like a tough one for the T’wolves, but I’m banking on them at least being able to cover the spread here. Now I know that the Warriors are 9-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation. (Their only loss came in OT against Memphis). But the Dubs have been feasting on some bad teams recently. While Minnesota’s SU record is only 3-6, they’ve only been outscored by 4.1 PPG. In the last two games, Minnesota has held leads of 20 and 16 points, yet is somehow 0-2 ATS. Steph Curry had 50 points in Golden State’s last game, a performance he isn’t about to duplicate here. Interestingly enough, the Warriors were outscored in three of the four quarters by Atlanta. They had one big quarter (third) where they outscored the Hawks 41-20. That doesn’t seem sustainable to me? 10* Minnesota |
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11-10-21 | Long Beach State v. Idaho +7.5 | Top | 95-89 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
8* Idaho (9:00 ET): So this spread appears to be WAY off as my own power ratings say the home team should be slightly favored. Long Beach State isn’t even a top 300 team, so the idea of them laying the points (especially this many) on the road seems dicey at best. The Beach were a 6-12 SU team last season and missed a ton of action due to COVID-19. Once a proud program, LBSU has now had five consecutive losing seasons under HC Dan Monson. Now I’m well aware that Idaho went 1-21 SU last year. That’s obviously really bad. The top two scorers from LY are gone, but it’s not like they made much of a difference. I understand that people are going to look at the Vandals’ 2020-21 record and give them no shot here. But this team is going to be better this season. HC Zac Claus knows that this is one the more winnable games for his team. Again, I’m going to put faith in my power rankings, which basically call this a ‘pick em type game. LBSU may be looking forward to a game with UCLA over the weekend. For Idaho, this game will have their full attention. The Vandals did end last season on a 3-0 ATS run. They had five losses by six points or less. Expect them to be competitive in this first game of the season. 8* Idaho |
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11-10-21 | Hornets +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): The Hornets are 0-5 SU/ATS in November and just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine games overall. Tonight marks the end of a five-game road trip that has seen them lose three times by double digits. But after only losing by three (in overtime) at the Lakers the other night, Charlotte should finally break through here. Memphis is also off an overtime game, although they were victorious, 125-118 over Minnesota. The Grizzlies were very lucky to win that game, let alone cover the point spread. They trailed by as many as 16 in the fourth quarter. Had the Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns not made a 39-foot heave at the end of regulation, then the Grizz would NOT have covered the 4.5-point spread. But thanks to the extra five minutes they did and anyone who laid the points in that game should have felt very lucky to cash a winning ticket. That win over the T’wolves was just the third game Memphis was favored to win all season. It was the first time they covered as favorites since the season opener vs. Cleveland. Prior to defeating the T’wolves, the Grizzlies had lost 115-87 at Washington. In addition to the OT win on Monday, they have two other wins this season by three points or less. I think the Grizz are a good team to fade as chalk right now, especially with Charlotte being so desperate for a win. 8* Charlotte |
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11-10-21 | Toledo -10.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 49-17 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
10* Toledo (7:00 ET): Toledo outgained Eastern Michigan 672-490 last week, but turned the ball over three times and thus lost the game 52-49 as nine-point favorites. Each of the last three times the Rockets have been favored, they have lost the game on the field. They have four outright losses as chalk this season, leaving them at 4-5 SU overall, which has to be considered a massive disappointment. But I like them to get back on track tonight against an opponent they have historically dominated. Lay the points. The most shocking thing about last week’s loss is how many points (52) and yards (490) Toledo allowed. They came into the contest vs. Eastern Michigan with the MAC’s top scoring defense (18.3 PPG allowed) and were second in fewest yards allowed (326.9) per game. Now I did take the Over (easy winner), noting EMU is one of the MAC’s better offensive teams. But the same cannot be said for this week’s opponent, Bowling Green, The Falcons are just 3-6 SU overall and averaging 23.6 PPG. Now BG is off a 56-44 upset of Buffalo last week where they were 14.5 point underdogs. But the Falcons were actually outgained 499-484 and had 25 fewer first downs! While 7-2 ATS, last week was just the third win for Bowling Green this season. It was their first win in conference play and only the second against a FBS opponent. As I alluded to above, Toledo has had BG’s number in the past. They’ve won 10 of the last 11 meetings including 38-3 last season. I look for the road favorite to assert its dominance in this one. 10* Toledo |
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11-09-21 | Portland State +14.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 64-73 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* Portland State (10:30 ET): Oregon State was an Elite Eight team last March. The Beavers, as a 12-seed, shockingly made it to the end of the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend before bowing out at the hands of Houston. They were also one of the country’s best ATS teams, finishing the year 23-8-1 at the betting window. That’s one of the reasons I’ll be looking to fade them in the 2021-22 season opener. Another is that they have seven first-year scholarship players and nine newcomers overall. Portland State was not really a “player” in the Big Sky Conference last year, finishing eighth in the 11-team league and making a first round exit in the Conference Tournament. The Vikings have a new head coach entering this year in Jase Coburn. While he brought in seven transfers, Coburn also has the benefit of lots of returning experience. There are eight players back from last season, four of whom started 10 or more games. I expect PSU to be much improved. Though Oregon State would go on to win the Pac 12 Tournament last season, they are pegged for just a fourth place finish here in 2021-22. Had they not made the run in the Conf Tourney, the Beavers would not have even made the Big Dance. Their Elite Eight appearance makes them an early season target. Portland State played the Beavers tough last season, only losing by five here in Corvallis as a 13-point underdog. OSU closing LY on a 14-1 ATS run (underdog in most games) was pretty ridiculous and I just have to fade them here. 10* Portland State |
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11-09-21 | Blazers +3 v. Clippers | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): This is an early season rubber match between the Trail Blazers & Clippers. These teams have taken turns beating each other, each winning on their own floor in blowout fashion. First it was the Clippers prevailing 116-86 here at Staples Center. Then it was the Blazers turn to return the favor with a 111-92 win several days later. I had the Blazers in that rematch and will go with them again here, plus the points. I know they are 0-4 SU/ATS on the road, but coming off B2B wins at home, I think they’re ready to end that particular losing streak. Portland has been favored in every game but one so far. That one exception was the previous game here vs. the Clippers. So unless they’ve been facing the Clips on the road, the Blazers have been favored every time out. That makes their 5-5 SU overall record seem like a disappointment. But, as alluded to above, things have begun to take a turn for the better. Damian Lillard made 6 of 15 3PA in Saturday’s 105-90 win over the Lakers. That game was a blowout most of the way with the Blazers leading by 30+ in the third quarter. That followed a win, 110-106 over Indiana, where *I* cashed them. The Clippers have won four in a row, the last three all coming by double digits. But they’ve been beating up on bad teams. Two of the wins were against Minnesota, another vs. Oklahoma City and then Sunday required a 22-0 run in the 4Q to beat Charlotte. I’m still not really sold on the Clips without Kawhi Leonard. They’re a middle of the pack team in the West until he returns. Take the points here. 8* Portland |
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11-09-21 | Hawks +8 v. Jazz | Top | 98-110 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (9:05 ET): For a half, it sure looked like the Hawks were the right side last night against the Warriors. I took them, plus the points, and they led Golden State 65-61 at the break. Early in the 2Q, they were up by as many as 11. But then the third quarter and Steph Curry happened. Atlanta was outscored 41-20 in the 3Q and Curry finished the game with 50 points and 10 assists. The Hawks lost 127-113. They are now a shocking 0-7 ATS on the road this season. Things will not get any easier for the Hawks tonight as they must visit Utah to play the Jazz, who are the only team that I have rated higher than Golden State in my power rankings. This is a game Atlanta desperately needs as not only are they 0-7 ATS on the road this season; they’ve also lost six of seven overall straight up, including four straight. I’m going to take the points again, feeling this team is simply better than what it has shown recently. Remember they were in the Eastern Conference Finals just a few months ago. This is the second meeting in a week between the Hawks and Jazz. Utah took the first one, in Atlanta, 116-98. The Hawks were actually slight favorites for that game. As rough as things have been recently, there looks to be value on them plus the points in the rematch. Utah has lost its last two games, the last one coming in Orlando where they were 11-point favorites. 10* Atlanta |
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11-09-21 | Ohio v. Eastern Michigan -3 | Top | 34-26 | Loss | -113 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Eastern Michigan (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Tuesday game for both Ohio and Eastern Michigan. Last week, both were underdogs and won their games outright in high scoring fashion. Ohio, at home, beat rival Miami 35-33 as seven point dogs. They were outgained 569-413. Meanwhile, Eastern Michigan went on the road and upset Toledo 52-49 as a nine-point dog. The Eagles were outgained 672-490. But in both instances, I did not care about the total yardage battle or even who won. That’s because I had the Over in both games. It ended up being a 2-0 night for me. Last week I shared with you some rather shocking information: it has been over six years since Ohio lost a MAC game by more than seven points! But Frank Solich’s surprising retirement still looms large over this team, which is just 2-7 SU with no shot at bowl eligibility. I know that the Bobcats have been mostly “snake bitten” under Tim Albin (Solich’s replacement) in 2021 with three losses by a total of six points. But it’s probably “high time” that they lose by more than seven points in conference play. As mentioned last week, the Ohio defense is one of the worst in the country at stopping the run (204 YPG allowed) and gives up 31.3 PPG as well. Clearly, EMU has some “work” to do at the defensive end as well. But the offense can certainly put up points as is evident by the fact they’ve now put up 50+ in B2B games. What they did last week against the MAC’s top scoring defense was very impressive. The Eagles are now bowl eligible following last week’s win, but there’s no guarantee a six-win MAC team gets invited to play a postseason game. So they’re going to be looking for a strong finish to the regular season. Winning the West Division is not out of the question. My power ratings say this should be a double digit spread. 8* Eastern Michigan |
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11-08-21 | Hawks +3.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (10:05 ET): The Hawks are 0-6 ATS on the road so far. That’s the most losses without a single cover in the league. Portland (0-4 ATS) is the only other team yet to cover a spread on the road. While it’s a short number they’re getting tonight, and they’re up against a hot Golden State team, look for Atlanta to end its six-game ATS road losing streak. Key here is that the Warriors had to play last night. This is the first time all season that the Dubs find themselves in the second night of a back to back. Take the points. Golden State did prevail on Sunday, winning 120-107 over lowly Houston. It was not only the fourth straight SU win for the Dubs, but also their fourth straight cover. All four wins have come by double digits. The team is now 8-1 SU on the year and the one loss came in overtime (to Memphis). Last night also marked the first Warriors’ game to go Over since the season opening win against the Lakers. But as good as the Dubs have been of late, I simply view this as a “bad spot.” Any team can have an “off-night.” Sure enough, the Warriors are 8-14 ATS the previous two seasons when playing without rest. It should be noted that the Hawks came VERY close to covering the other night in Phoenix, only to lose by four as 3.5 point underdogs. For the record, I cashed the Over in that game. The Hawks actually led by double digits going into the fourth quarter. Losers of three in a row, this team will be desperate for a win Monday night. Remember they were in the Conference Finals last summer. Look for the dog to take advantage of a tired favorite. 10* Atlanta |
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11-07-21 | Chargers v. Eagles +2 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 58 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): The Eagles were not expected to be very good this season. With a 3-5 SU record, one might argue that they are in fact “living up to expectations.” However, I think they’ve played a lot better than people may realize. It’s something I talked about when taking them - plus the points - against Carolina a few weeks ago. The Eagles have outgained their opponents on a per play basis this season! That’s still the case and coming off a 44-6 beatdown of the Lions last week, they also now have a positive YTD point differential! I think Philly is BETTER than the Chargers. Take the points in this one. The Chargers have not won since October 10th when they defeated Cleveland in a wild 47-42 game. Even then, the Lightning Bolts needed to stage a comeback from a two touchdown deficit in the second half. Since that last win, the team has been blown out by Baltimore (34-6) and then, off a bye, lost at home to New England 27-24. You may recall I had the Patriots last week. Similar to this matchup, my power ratings said that LA should have been the underdog when they were in fact favored. At least, the Chargers had home field advantage last week. This week they do not. The Eagles are 0-3 SU at home, so expect them to really want to win here for 1st year HC Nick Sirianni. Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert is banged up (right hand injury) and was limited in practice Wednesday. That makes me like the home team even more in this one. Expect the Eagles to exploit a lousy Chargers’ run defense, which is giving up a league-worst 159 YPG. The Eagles just ran for a season-high 236 yards on the ground last week. Special teams remains an albatross for the Chargers as they currently rank 32nd (per DVOA) for the third year in a row in the “third phase” of the game. The Eagles are 6-2 ATS L8 as home dogs. 10* Philadelphia |
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11-07-21 | Texans +6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 9-17 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Cross your fingers and say a prayer, we’re taking the Texans this week. Now this play has far more to do with Houston’s opponent. Miami shouldn’t be laying this many points to ANYBODY as I have them rated as the third worst team in the NFL right now. Are the Texans 32nd (i.e. last)? Yes, they are. But I do not believe this spread is an accurate representation of the actual difference between the two teams right now. The Dolphins have been outscored by 95 points this season and haven’t won a game since Week 1 when they defeated the Patriots - by a single point. Houston’s lone win also came in Week (at Jacksonville). Since then, they’ve lost six times by double digits. The one exception was against the Patriots, a game they led most of the way. There have been some really bad blowout losses for David Culley’s team and last week’s game vs. the Rams was far worse than the final score (38-22) made it seem. But look at some of the teams the Texans have had to play so far. The Rams, Cardinals and Bills are the three highest rated teams in my current power rankings. Do I think Houston wins this week? Not necessarily. But I do believe they will keep this game close (as in within one possession). Miami has had a few more close calls than Houston this season, with three losses coming by a FG or less. But they still have the same seven-game losing streak the Texans do. It was a game effort for three quarters last week up in Buffalo, but the offense still only managed to score 11 points. In six of their eight games this season, the Fins have scored 20 points or less. That’s why I am fading in this spot. Also, Tyrod Taylor is set to return and be the starting QB for Houston. That’s an upgrade from Davis Mills. The Texans have a positive point differential for the six quarters Taylor has played this season. 8* Houston |
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11-07-21 | Broncos +10 v. Cowboys | Top | 30-16 | Win | 100 | 71 h 22 m | Show |
8* Denver (1:00 ET): Dallas surprised all of us last Sunday night when they went to Minnesota and won 20-16 (as 4.5-point underdogs) despite not having the services of QB Dak Prescott. It was the sixth straight win for the Cowboys on the field and at 7-0 ATS, they are the only team to still be perfect at the betting window. I’m banking on that latter streak to come to an end Sunday as America’s Team is caught laying its biggest number of the year. Prescott is expected to play, but regardless of his status I am taking the points. What an odd two years it’s been for Denver when it comes to the oddsmakers. Last season, they were the ONLY team in the entire NFL not to be favored a single time. This year, they’ve been favored in seven of eight games! After starting 2021 a perfect 3-0 SU, the Broncos went on a four-game losing streak. But they picked up a much needed win last week (at home), beating Washington 17-10. They did so despite amassing only 273 yards of total offense. But a “win is a win” in this league and HC Vic Fangio will take it. Denver actually has the best YTD point differential (+20) in the AFC West. Do I think that will hold? Probably not. But the Broncos have let only three teams score more than 17 points this season. Only one of their losses has been by greater than 10 points. I know Von Miller is now gone (traded to the Rams), but I still look for the underdog to make this a close game. The Cowboys are certainly long overdue NOT to cover and after surprising everyone with the win last Sunday night, this is a great time to fade them. 8* Denver |
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11-06-21 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 34 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (3:30 ET): Oklahoma State had its easiest game of the season last week as they beat Kansas 55-3. But it can’t be discounted just how “dangerously” the Cowboys have been living most of this 2021 season. There have been two games (Texas & Boise State) where the Pokes won after trailing by at least 13 points. They also trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4Q and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State for a seven-point win in Stillwater. All the close calls finally caught up with OSU against Iowa State, where they lost 24-21, the week before blowing out Kansas. This week finds Mike Gundy’s team traveling to Morgantown, WV, which is one of the toughest places to play in the entire Big 12. The Mountaineers will be looking to pull off a third consecutive upset here as the last two games have seen them defeat TCU as a 4.5-point road dog and then Iowa State as a 7.5-point home dog. Though just 4-4 SU on the season, the Mountaineers could have a MUCH better record as three losses have been by six points or less, including two by just a field goal. While pulling three consecutive upsets might seem like a tough “ask” from WVU, take note that Oklahoma State is an extremely fortunate 6-0 ATS L6 games. OSU is #11 in the initial CFP rankings, but oddsmakers have a less favorable view and so do my own personal power ratings. Bank on the home team having plenty of motivation Saturday afternoon as they have lost six straight times to the Pokes (0-5-1 ATS). The last two weeks have seen WVU average 490 YPG. 8* West Virginia |
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11-06-21 | Colorado State v. Wyoming +4 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 34 m | Show |
8* Wyoming (3:30 ET): The annual “Border War” is renewed Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Colorado State owns the all-time series edge, but it had been Wyoming that had won four in a row - before last year. CSU picked up its ONLY win of the 2020 season (played just four games) when it beat the Cowboys 34-24 as a three-point home underdog. But now they have to win at a place where they have not prevailed since 2015. In what promises to be a pretty low-scoring game (just look at the total), taking the points seems like the way to go. Also, Wyoming (because they are 0-5 ATS L5 games) seems undervalued. Wyoming started the season 4-0. Now three of those wins were close calls (decided by 7 points or less), one of them against UConn, which would have been a VERY embarrassing loss. Turns out the Cowboys haven’t won since that near embarrassment. It’s a four-game SU losing streak with one of the defeats coming to lowly New Mexico here at home by a score of 14-3. The Pokes have actually outgained their last three opponents (combined) yet are somehow winless. Being -9 in turnovers hasn’t helped. Despite the four-game losing streak, my power ratings still say the home team should be favored here! Colorado State’s season started very poorly as they opened 0-2 with the losses coming to FCS South Dakota State and lowly Vanderbilt. Then things began to turn around in Fort Collins. The Rams covered four straight and were 3-1 SU. The lone loss was at Iowa! But the L2 weeks have brought a couple painful defeats, 26-24 at Utah State and 28-19 at home vs. Boise State. The Rams blew a 13-0 lead last week in a game their fanbase really thought they were going to win. I sense they’ll be deflated this week and that’s tough when hitting the road. Wyoming will be desperate for its first MWC win. 8* Wyoming |
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11-06-21 | North Texas v. Southern Miss +5 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 6 m | Show |
8* Southern Miss (3:30 ET): Kind of an “off the radar” game to go with here, but whenever I see a 2-6 team (like North Texas) laying points on the ROAD, my eyes always “light up.” Now Southern Miss is no Alabama. The Golden Eagles are 1-7 and that lone SU victory came against Grambling, a FCS school. The Golden Eagles have lost six straight games, five of them by double digits. But this is probably their last shot at a win this season. I think they’ll come out motivated. Take the points. Now until last week, North Texas had also not beaten a single FBS team in 2021. The Mean Green had lost six in a row, four by double digits, since defeating Northwestern State 44-14 all the way back in the season opener. But then they beat Rice 30-24 last week as a 1-point underdog. In case you were somehow unaware, Rice is not a good team. It took OT for the Mean Green to get that first FBS victory and they were actually outgained for the game. Expecting them to win B2B games seems like a “tall order,” no? Now I’m obviously aware of the fact that Southern Miss has not scored 20 points against any FBS opponent this year. That’s not good! But they do only give up 20.3 PPG at home! The North Texas defense, as you might expect, is pretty bad. The Mean Green allow 33.6 PPG and have allowed less than 35 to just two FBS teams. Southern Miss had five turnovers last week in a 35-10 loss to Middle Tennessee. Take better care of the football here and they can at least stay within the number. USM has beaten N Texas each of the last two years - by a combined 28 points! 8* Southern Miss |
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11-06-21 | Missouri +38 v. Georgia | Top | 6-43 | Win | 100 | 92 h 6 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Incredibly, Mizzou has failed to cover 10 straight games. This ATS losing streak goes all the way back to the end of last season. The Tigers are 0-8 ATS in 2021. But, believe it or not, I have been waiting very patiently to bet on them again. Now it (obviously) didn’t work out the last time I did so. That was three weeks ago at home vs. Texas A&M when they lost 35-14 as 11-point underdogs. That is the only time in their last four games that the Tigers have been an underdog. This week certainly puts their “inability” to cover the pointspread to the test as they are getting almost FORTY points against #1 Georgia. It just so happens that Missouri’s 0-10 ATS run began with a 49-14 loss last year to UGA. They were 14-point home underdogs in that particular meeting. I think this is a GREAT time to take a Mizzou team that has been favored to win more than half of its games this season. The only other time this year that the Tigers were double digit dogs was the game vs. A&M. This is just a ton of points, a perfect time for a team that’s beyond “due” to cover a pointspread. Now obviously Georgia is very good. But coming off a four-game stretch where they faced Arkansas, Auburn, Kentucky and Florida (all ranked teams), doesn’t it just FEEL like this is going to be a classic “letdown” spot? Especially coming on the heels of being ranked #1 in the initial CFP rankings? This is more points than UGA laid to VANDERBILT, which was a road game, but still. Only two Georgia wins this year (UAB, Vandy) were by more than 37 points. I don’t think this one will be the third. 8* Missouri |
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11-05-21 | Pacers v. Blazers -3 | Top | 106-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): Can the Blazers really lose four straight times as favorites? I hope not, because I’m laying the points with them Friday night at home vs. the Pacers. Now I haven’t forgotten how Portland failed to come through for me in their last game. That was a 107-104 loss at Cleveland. The defensive effort was simply not up to par as the Blazers allowed the Cavs to shoot 52.7% from the field, including 15 of 30 on three-point attempts. But one reason I believe today can (and will) be different is that the Blazers are back home where they’re 3-1 SU so far this season. (They are 0-4 on the road). Not long ago, Indiana was a team that I championed to turn things around. It was Monday when I took them and they covered the spread for me in a 131-118 win over San Antonio. They followed that by beating the Knicks on Wednesday, 111-98. Prior to the B2B wins, the Pacers were just 1-6 SU overall and looked like one of the real “disappointments” in the Eastern Conference. But now they have to go and do something they have yet to do all season and that’s win on the road. So far the team is 0-4 SU away from home and giving up an average of 120.2 points in those four contests. Portland has averaged 120.5 PPG at home so far. In my analysis for their game vs. Cleveland, I talked about how it’s only a matter of time until Damian Lillard gets on track. Lillard did go for a team-high 26 points against the Cavs, but that was on 10 of 27 shooting (3 of 12 from 3PT range). I trust that he and his teammates will shoot better tonight now that they’re back home. The Blazers have been favored in all but one game so far, so their 3-5 SU record is a major disappointment. They’ll win and cover tonight. 10* Portland |
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11-05-21 | Pelicans +9 v. Warriors | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (10:05 ET): I think it’s safe to say that Golden State is off to a pretty great start to the season. They will never again ascend to the heights of those championship teams from several years back, but they’ve definitely been the second best team in the Western Conference (behind Utah) thus far. The Warriors are 6-1 SU and have yet to be beaten in regulation (lone loss was by three, to Memphis, in overtime). Since suffering that one loss, they’ve put together a couple commanding victories over Oklahoma City and Charlotte, beating those two teams by 21 and 22 points respectively. New Orleans is NOT off to a good start. They are 1-8, which has them dead last in the Western Conference. Zion Williamson has not played and will probably be out for two more weeks. But at least Brandon Ingram appears ready to return tonight. Ingram has missed the Pelicans’ last three games, all of which have been losses, the last two coming by a combined 25 points at Phoenix and Sacramento. Before those three games, the Pelicans had been competitive, losing to the Hawks and Kings by a combined seven points. Playing on national television, the Pelicans certainly won’t want to be embarrassed tonight. So look for a solid effort in this Friday night ESPN matchup. They are due to start shooting the ball better while at the same time the defense can only improve (last four opponents have all shot 50% or better). Golden State held its previous two opponents to 36% from the field, which is hard to do. The Dubs figure to be a popular play tonight, but I think it’s a great spot to be a “contrarian.” Take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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11-03-21 | Blazers -3.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (7:05 ET): Here, you’ve got two teams whose records somewhat defy the odds. Portland has been favored in all but one game so far. They are just 3-4 straight up. Cleveland has been an underdog in ALL of its games, yet is 4-4 SU. I just can’t see the Blazers losing for a third straight time as chalk nor do I see the Cavs continuing this surprising early season run. So lay the short number with the road team. Portland is 0-3 SU and ATS on the road. Tonight will be their third road game in four nights. As I alluded to earlier, the Blazers went off as the betting favorite in each of the previous two contests. Their last game was a 113-103 loss to a Philadelphia team that was playing without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Joel Embiid and Danny Green. It was a bad loss, plain and simple. Right now, it would be very easy to “point the finger” at Damian Lillard, who is averaging career-lows in points, FG% and 3PT FG%. Lillard went 7 for 20 overall (2 for 9 from behind the arc) against the Sixers. I believe it’s only a matter of time before he - and the team - gets back on track. Look for it to start tonight in Cleveland. The Cavs are coming off a five-game road trip (that was mostly out West) and saw them pull three outright upsets. The latest upset win came Monday in Charlotte when they won 113-110. They blew a big lead in the fourth quarter of that game. Important to note is that in three of the Cavs’ four wins, the opponent has failed to score 100 points. Yet it’s not as if the Cavs have some great defensive efficiency rating. I just believe Portland, specifically Lillard, is due to get back on track here and I’m not a buyer on the Cavs’ start. 10* Portland |
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11-02-21 | Kings +9 v. Jazz | Top | 113-119 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (9:05 ET): As one would expect, the Kings have not had much success against the Jazz these last few seasons. They are just 1-8 - straight up and against the spread - the last nine meetings. The one SU win came by a single point as 4.5 point dogs very early in the 2019-20 season. All eight losses have come by at least nine points and quite frankly the average margin is pretty huge. But I’m here to tell you that you shouldn't be surprised when the visitors (Sacramento) make this close a game on Tuesday night. Utah, as they were expected to be, is one of top teams in the Western Conference so far. They are 5-1 SU with a conference leading +12.9 per game point differential. But I successfully faded them in their lone loss, which came on Saturday in Chicago, 107-99 as 3.5-point favorites to the Bulls. They immediately followed that with perhaps their signature win of the season, 107-95 over defending NBA Champion Milwaukee as five-point home favorites. The Bucks shot very poorly in that game. The Kings have already lost to the Jazz once this season. It was a 110-101 game in Sacramento back on October 22nd. But the Kings come into this game with a 3-3 SU record. Now all three wins have been close (decided by four points or less), however all three were also on the road! I fully anticipate that the Kings will shoot the ball better from three-point range here than they did vs. Dallas Sunday (just 19.4%). They finished with a season-low in points and their top two scorers (Barnes, Fox) finished a combined 10 of 32. Take the points. 8* Sacramento |
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11-01-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 97-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): When Nikola Jokic went down with what looked to be a serious knee injury last Tuesday, there was some serious concern that the reigning league MVP would be out for an extended period of time. But Jokic ended up not even missing a game and has since led his Nuggets to B2B wins. The first was a blowout over Dallas at home and then the Nuggets eked out a 93-91 win at Minnesota on Saturday. But this being their third game in four nights, and on the road, I think it’s a bad spot for them. Memphis has fallen to 3-3 SU on the season after dropping three of their last four games. They played their worst game of the season on Saturday night, here at home vs. Miami. The Grizzlies lost 129-103 in a game they were favored to win by two points. They shot just 38.6% from the field. But the big problem was allowing the Heat to hit 21 three-pointers. The Grizz were down 16 at the end of the first quarter and never really got close after that. Needless to say, you should expect a much better effort tonight. Memphis isn’t just looking to bounce back from a bad loss, they also are playing with triple revenge tonight. They lost all three matchups with Denver last year. But take note two of those losses were decided by a total of three points. What’s interesting about this matchup is that the Grizzlies have been far better at the offensive end than Denver this year, but much worse defensively. I just can’t see the Grizz dropping B2B games as a home favorite nor can I see the Nuggets winning B2B games as a road underdog. 10* Memphis |
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11-01-21 | Spurs v. Pacers -3.5 | Top | 118-131 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers are off to a dismal start at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring) is hurt and listed as questionable for tonight. In addition to that, Caris LeVert (who played for the first time in Saturday’s 97-94 loss to Toronto) is on a minutes restriction as he continues to work his way back from offseason back surgery. But I see the wounded Pacers picking up a win tonight over a San Antonio team that’s off a big upset and unlikely to win two straight on the road. Lay the short number here. The Spurs are 2-4 SU. They’ve actually covered the number in the first two games of this three-game trip, first losing in Dallas by only five points (were 7-point dogs) and then shocking Milwaukee 102-93 on Saturday, once again as a seven-point dog. Coming off a win over the NBA Champs means a “letdown” is likely in order for Greg Popovich’s team on Monday. This isn’t “your older brothers Spurs” by any stretch of the imagination. Coming into tonight, I’ve got them in the bottom seven of my own personal power ratings. Indiana isn’t much higher than San Antonio in the ratings, but I do have the ahead by a couple points. So with the home court advantage tonight, the Pacers seem like a logical play. I know that the injuries are a concern, but this is a team that could have a much better record right now. Three of their losses have been by three points or less, including two by exactly one point (first two games). The Spurs benefited from the Bucks shooting VERY poorly on Saturday night. Off B2B sub-100 point efforts, I think the Pacers are set to break out at the offensive end tonight. 8* Indiana |
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10-31-21 | Cowboys v. Vikings +2.5 | Top | 20-16 | Loss | -114 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:25 ET): Two teams off byes meet in this week’s Sunday Night Football Game. But despite an extra week of rest, the Cowboys are not necessarily healthy. There’s some question as to whether or not QB Dak Prescott (strained calf) will even play here. Regardless if he does or not, I think Dallas is likely to lose this game and suffer its first ATS defeat of the season. They enter as the only unbeaten ATS team in the league (6-0) and are 5-1 SU, the lone loss coming to Tampa Bay on Opening Night. Minnesota is 3-3 SU, however I believe the Vikings are better than their record. After suffering some very close losses in the early part of the season (at Cincinnati, at Arizona and Cleveland), they’ve battled back to square away their record at .500. While they needed OT to get by the Panthers 34-28 two weeks ago, statistically they dominated that game with a 571-306 edge in total yards. Those early season losses to Cincinnati and Arizona (both on the road) no longer look as bad, given where those teams are at now. The Vikings offense may only be 14th in scoring, but it is fifth in total yards per game. Two weeks ago, the Cowboys were very lucky to win, let alone cover, in New England. Obviously, Prescott’s status could change everything, but I liked the idea of fading America’s Team even before the severity of the calf injury was known. It’s not like Dallas is going to cover the spread in every game this season and their defense is giving up 6.5 yards per play so far. The Vikings’ defense is tied for the league lead in sacks (with 21), so even if Prescott does play Sunday night, he’s likely to be under duress the whole time. Not good for a signal caller dealing with a calf injury. 10* Minnesota |
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10-31-21 | Bucs v. Saints +5.5 | Top | 27-36 | Win | 100 | 76 h 0 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): Tampa Bay couldn’t score ONE touchdown in the second half last week vs. the Bears. Granted they didn’t HAVE to. But I could have used one. I bet the Over in their game vs. the Bears, which was 35-3 at halftime and looking good in that regard. But only a field goal was scored in the 2H and things stayed Under with the Super Bowl Champs winning 38-3. It will undoubtedly be much tougher this week when the Bucs travel to New Orleans to face the rival Saints. New Orleans is off a somewhat ugly 13-10 win in Seattle Monday night. Because that’s fresh on bettors’ minds and Tampa Bay is off a blowout win, I don’t anticipate a rash of people running to the window to play the home team in this one. But I’m here to tell you that the Saints should not be discounted. This team has a very good defense, which is now the identity of the team with HOF QB Drew Brees retired. The Saints are also going to be highly motivated this week. Not just because they are up against the defending Super Bowl Champs (who knocked them out of the playoffs LY), but also because this is just the second game at the Superdome this season. Tampa Bay ran for 182 yards last week on Chicago. That was rather easily a season-high. But I wouldn’t expect them to reach half that number this week. New Orleans is giving up just 81 YPG on the ground. That’s #3 in the league. Now the Bucs defense is #1 against the run. But a big key here is that New Orleans is a home dog of four or more points for just the third time ever under HC Sean Payton. They are 10-2 ATS as a dog since 2018. Tampa Bay is 0-3 ATS on the road this season. My power rankings call this basically a toss up, so I will obviously take the points. 8* New Orleans |
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10-31-21 | Patriots +6 v. Chargers | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
8* New England (4:05 ET): It was “just the Jets,” but the Patriots made quite the emphatic statement last week with a 54-13 win in Foxboro. It definitely made me take notice that this COULD still end up being a playoff team under Bill Belichick. Now I know their three wins have come at the expense of the Jets (twice) and Texans, who are perhaps the two worst teams in the NFL. But the Pats also have three losses that have occurred by either two points or less or in overtime. So their SU record could certainly be better than it is. They now have a YTD point differential of +39 (better than the 4-2 Chargers). So I’m definitely taking the points. Los Angeles is coming off its bye. They needed it as the last time we saw the Lightning Bolts, they were getting thrashed 34-6 by Baltimore. It was easily the worst loss for the Chargers this season. They’ve actually had better luck in close games, which is rare for the Chargers, who have three wins by six points or less. Another issue for the Chargers this season is their run defense, which gives up the most yards per game and attempt in the league. In addition to rookie QB Mac Jones getting better every week, New England ran for a season-best 148 yards last week. The Patriots always seem to have the Chargers’ number. They are 6-0 against them since 2010, including playoffs. That run also includes a 45-0 beatdown from last season where special teams played a key role. Once again, this year finds New England with a massive edge in special teams over LA. I am simply going to trust my own power rankings on this one as they say the visitors are the better team. 8* New England |
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10-31-21 | Panthers +3 v. Falcons | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Carolina (1:00 ET): Two 3-4 teams from the NFC South meet this week in Atlanta. The Falcons are undoubtedly “hotter” at the moment as they’ve won two straight games, one before and one after a bye. But I remain unconvinced that they are a better team than the Panthers. All three of Atlanta’s wins have been by one score, two of them by three points or less. After YEARS of misery in close games, the Dirty Birds won on a last second field goal last week, beating the lowly Dolphins 30-28. Carolina was once 3-0 but has now dropped four straight. They are off their most embarrassing result to date, a 25-3 loss at the Giants. QB Darnold was benched in his return to MetLife Stadium. RB Christian McCaffery remains OUT due to injury. All reports indicate that Darnold will be back as the starter this week. Regardless if those reports end up being true (I believe they are), I’ll be taking the points in this divisional matchup. Atlanta isn’t just 0-2 SU at home this season; they are also 0-6 SU and ATS their L6 as home favorites. Even with the Falcons’ two-game win streak, my power ratings disagree with them being favored here. They have a -41 YTD point differential as they were blown out in the first two games by the Bucs and Eagles. Their three wins have been against the Jets, Giants and Dolphins, three teams that are a combined 4-16 SU. Carolina’s YTD point differential is 0 as their first three losses were all by eight points or less. The Panthers won here in Atlanta LY when they were a weaker team. 9* Carolina |
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10-30-21 | Jazz v. Bulls +4 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Chicago (8:05 ET): The Bulls suffered their first loss of the season on Thursday and I was happy to see it. No disrespect to those in the Windy City, I just happened to be on the team they were playing (Knicks) and it was my *10* Game of the Month. It was a tight game with the Knicks (who were slight underdogs) ultimately prevailing 104-103. Unfortunately for the Bulls, the news didn’t get any better on Friday when it was learned that forward Patrick Williams would be out for the remainder of the regular season due to a fractured wrist. That’s a literal “ouch” for a team that had gotten off to a 4-0 start. Chicago’s opponent on Saturday is Utah and the Jazz have also started 4-0 SU. That’s less surprising than the Bulls’ 4-0 start as the Jazz were universally projected to be one of the top teams in the West this season. Thus far, they’ve overwhelmed some pretty bad teams, beating Oklahoma City, Sacramento, Denver and Houston by an average of 18.2 points per game. Only one of those previous opponents (Denver) made the playoffs last season. I said going into that aforementioned Knicks-Bulls game that I wasn’t surprised Chicago was undefeated (based on who they’d played). I say the same for the Jazz here. Despite being off a loss and the Williams’ injury, I’m taking the Bulls plus the points in this one. Utah is the only unbeaten team left in the league - whether you are talking straight up or against the spread. It’s just a matter of time before a loss is hung on them in both regards. With Chicago’s only loss this season coming by a single point, I think they are the team that will - at the very least - be the first to cover against the Jazz this year. When Utah faced Denver earlier in the week, they had three days off to get ready. This is their second road game in three days. Take the points. 10* Chicago |
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10-30-21 | Florida State v. Clemson -9 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
10* Clemson (3:30 ET): We all know about that definition of the word “insanity.” Something about “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.” Well, for the third week in a row, I’m taking Clemson. This despite losing with them the previous two times. The Tigers are now 0-7 ATS, tied with Missouri for the worst such record in the country. Last week saw Dabo Swinney’s team installed as an underdog for the first time since the National Championship Game (vs. LSU) at the end of the 2019 season. It was also the first time they’d been a ‘dog in ACC play since 2016! I thought that was the ultimate “buy low” spot, but it turns out they lost 27-17 as 3.5 point underdogs. This week finds Clemson back in the familiar role of favorite, facing Florida State. They have dominated the Seminoles in recent years. In the last two meetings, the Tigers were favored by 26.5 and 18.5 points. They won those games by 31 and 49. It should not shock you to find that the line is much shorter this time. I know that Clemson has really struggled to score this season, but here they are facing a defense that has given up 25+ points in every game when not facing UMass or Jacksonville State. Four times the Seminoles have allowed 30 or more. Clemson did allow 27 points last week to Pitt, which was a season-worst when excluding OT. But the Pitt offense is one of the best in the country. The same cannot be said for Florida State’s. The ‘Noles have not scored more than 14 points in any of the L3 meetings with Clemson and won’t here. My own power ratings are calling for this spread to be north of two touchdowns, so there is VALUE on the favorite here. I’m not “insane!” At long last, the Tigers end their ATS losing streak. 10* Clemson |
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10-30-21 | Boston College +6.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 6-21 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 10 m | Show |
8* Boston College (3:30 ET): What in the world is going on in upstate New York? Syracuse has covered six straight games, giving them the longest ATS win streak in the country. The underdog role has suited them well as they were getting points in all but one of those games (when they faced FCS Albany). But the Orange can no longer rely on the oddsmakers to get them “over the hump” this week. That’s because for the first time in their last 22 games vs. FBS competition, they find themselves favored! Ironically enough, the last time the ‘Cuse was favored to defeat an FBS foe was against the very opponent they are matched up with this week. Boston College comes to the Carrier Dome on a three-game losing streak. But before opening ACC play at 0-3, the Eagles were flying high with a 4-0 start. I took them (and cashed) when they beat Missouri, which is the last time they won a game. By the way, that last time Syracuse was favored? BC smoked them 58-27 as three-point pups. I’m not saying things will turn out quite that lopsided this weekend. But I do believe it is an opportune time to fade Syracuse. All of the Orange’s last five games have been decided by five points or less. Now they are laying points for the first time in two years. Last week, they needed to come back from a nine-point deficit in the 4Q to beat Va Tech 41-36. They led for less than five minutes. I know that BC is struggling on third downs due to playing with a backup QB. But they should be able to move the ball on a Syracuse defense that gave up 260 yards rushing last week. The three straight losses are a first under HC Jeff Haley. Take the points. 8* Boston College |
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10-30-21 | Cincinnati v. Tulane +26.5 | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 48 h 41 m | Show |
8* Tulane (12:00 ET): The pressure continues to mount on Cincinnati, who is ranked #2 in the current AP Poll and MUST finish the regular season unbeaten to have ANY chance of being the first “Group of 5” team to crack the College Football Playoff. Last week saw the Bearcats narrowly escape a bad Navy team, winning just 27-20 despite 29-point favorites. Though they led the entire way, Cincy was actually outgained in the contest 308-271. That marked a season-low in total yardage. This week Cincy is on the road again to face Tulane. The line is in the same “neighborhood” as last week, despite the Bearcats’ poor performance and the fact I’ve got Tulane rated several points higher than Navy. Now I know this Green Wave defense can’t stop a nosebleed. But at least they’re a bit more battle-tested after facing another unbeaten team (SMU) last week. Did that game go well? Obviously not. But at least this time Tulane is at home. They’ve faced a tough schedule as Cincinnati will be the fourth team currently ranked in the Top 20 that they’ve taken on this season. This Tulane offense can put up points. They’ve scored at least 21 in every game and average 31.9 PPG. That right there should allow them to stay within the number. Cincinnati has struggled on the road this season, not just last week, but also in tight wins over Indiana (trailed going into the fourth quarter) and at Notre Dame. Their biggest margin of victory this year away from historic Nippert Stadium is 11 points. With their hosts 0-5 ATS L5 games and being somewhat undervalued, this seems like a good spot to grab a big number. The Green Wave were favored twice during their win streak. 8* Tulane |
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10-30-21 | Miami-FL +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 38-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): The Hurricanes treated me so well last week (upset NC State) that I’m going “back to the well” with them again this week. In the analysis for last week, I talked about how Hurricanes HC Manny Diaz was firmly on the “hot seat” after a disappointing 2-4 SU start. Remember that Miami came into the season ranked #14 in the country. The win over NC State was definitely a step in the right direction, however, it doesn’t mean Diaz is off the hook yet. Whether or not they can win again, this time on the road, is a question I’ll leave alone. But I do once again love “The U” getting points. Pitt is the #19 ranked team in the country coming into this week and they are off an impressive 27-17 win over Clemson. The Panthers are 6-1 SU and have covered the spread in each of their last four games. However, the ridiculous offensive numbers we were seeing from them early on in the season have started to cease. They’ve scored “only” 27 and 28 points the L2 weeks. It actually shouldn’t be all that surprising to see Pitt at 6-1 SU given that they’ve been favored in every game so far. My view is that after having beaten the spread by such a substantial margin thus far, the Panthers are “due” for a close game. Miami has definitely had Pitt’s number through the years, going 10-4-1 ATS in the 15 meetings since ‘98. This is just the third time since ‘78 that Pitt has been favored over Miami and the previous two both saw them lose outright! One of those was in 2019 when the ‘Canes came here and won 16-12. Last year’s game was a 31-19 Miami win down in Coral Gables. With two losses decided in the final minute, Miami should have a better SU record. This is just the third time they’ve been a dog in 2021. Under Diaz, they are 4-1 ATS as road underdogs. Take the points. 8* Miami FL |
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10-30-21 | Virginia Tech +4.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (12:00 ET): The Hokies seem to love to grasp defeat from the “jaws of victory.” They have suffered three losses this season by six points or less and all three games were decided in the final minute. Twice (vs. Notre Dame and LW vs. Syracuse) they led with under three minutes to go only to lose the game in the closing seconds. Since starting 2-0 SU/ATS, Va Tech is just 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS. But my own power ratings suggest that they should still be a slight favorite going into this weekend’s matchup with rival Georgia Tech. So I will count on things going right this time and take the points. Georgia Tech also has some “kinks” to work out right now as they enter this game on an 0-3 ATS slide. Their only SU win in that stretch came by four points over Duke. The other two games saw them give up 52 points (at home) to Pitt and then 48 more last week at Virginia. The Yellow Jackets certainly did not have any problems moving the ball LW in Charlottesville (570 total yards), but they also gave 636 total yards on defense. Yikes! They are allowing an average of 568.3 YPG the L3 weeks. So I expect Virginia Tech, who got 151 yards rushing LW from freshman Malachi Thomas, to move the ball in this one. Whomever has been on the road has enjoyed a tremendous amount of success in this particular ACC rivalry. Over the past seven meetings, the visiting team has won outright six times. The underdog had been on a 6-0 ATS run, until last year when the Hokies shut the Yellow Jackets out 45-0 as a six-point favorite. I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the better team (Va Tech) here. Georgia Tech is just 1-7 ATS its last eight tries as chalk. 8* Virginia Tech |
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10-28-21 | Packers v. Cardinals -6 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 26 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:20 ET): Two of the league’s hottest teams collide Thursday night in Glendale as the Cardinals host the Packers. Being that it’s a 7-0 team vs. a 6-1 team, this was thought to be the best TNF game of the season (at least to date). However, there is trouble in the Green Bay camp. There is a chance they could be without their top THREE wide receivers here. Both Davante Adams and Allen Lazard landed on the COVID-19 list, so they are out. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been on IR and missed the L4 games with a hamstring injury. I know GB has Aaron Rodgers, but he can’t catch the ball. Truthfully, even before this ill-timed news broke, I was already looking to fade the Packers this week. They were pretty fortunate to defeat Washington 24-14 last week and cover as 8.5-point favorites. The Football Team turned the ball over THREE times inside the Packers’ 10-yard line in the game. That pretty much negated a 430-304 edge in total yards. The loss of Adams would be critical to the Packers’ offense. Leading up to the game, you will probably hear that the team is 6-0 all-time with Adams out of the lineup. That is true. But so is the fact the gap in number of receptions between him and the team’s 2nd leading receiver is the largest between any #1 and #2 WR on any team in the league. I should probably reiterate that Arizona is undefeated! The Cardinals currently have the best scoring differential in the league at +111. That’s significantly better than Green Bay’s +22. My personal power rankings already had this spread north of a touchdown and that was BEFORE the Packers learned about the positive COVID tests. Only one of Arizona’s wins this year has come by fewer than seven points. While Green Bay won’t be quite the “public dog” I’d hoped they’d be, we’re still getting a discount on the home team, even at the current price. 10* Arizona |
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10-28-21 | Knicks +2 v. Bulls | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): One of the big early season winners looks to be Chicago, who is 4-0 for the first time since the halcyon days of Air Jordan. But let’s “pump the breaks” just a little bit as the Bulls have beaten the lowly Pistons twice as well as the Pelicans and Raptors. It was a three-point win in Toronto, which was enough to cover the spread (Bulls were -2) there, and it’s another short spread tonight for a team that’s not just 4-0 SU but also 4-0 ATS. However, this is where I think the streak comes to an end. The Knicks are off to a 3-1 SU start (also 3-1 ATS), their lone loss coming at home to Orlando of all teams. I happened to fade NY in that one defeat. But give them credit for bouncing back Tuesday night against Philadelphia for an emphatic 112-99 win. That ended a 15-game losing streak to the 76ers, so the win was more significant than normal. The key here is that the Knicks are averaging 118.8 PPG so far. While Chicago is allowing just 97.5 PPG, again, look at who they’ve played. The Bulls did lead the Raptors by as many as 20 points Tuesday, so the final score was somewhat misleading. However, I still am confident that their 4-0 SU/ATS run comes to an end tonight. Before the win over Toronto, the Bulls were 0-4 SU/ATS the previous two seasons when coming off three consecutive SU wins. So this is very much “uncharted territory” for them. The Knicks, a playoff team last year, are still the more “reliable” commodity and a deeper team. 10* New York |
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10-28-21 | Troy +18.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
8* Troy (7:30 ET): #24 Coastal Carolina just had its season crumble before its very eyes last week. They suffered their first loss of the season, 30-27 at Appalachian State, which basically ended any hope the Chanticleers had of representing the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six bowl game. You may recall that I took the points with the underdog in that one, noting Appalachian State was easily Coastal’s toughest 2021 opponent to date. There were some other reasons I took the Mountaineers as well. But all you need to know is that Coastal now finds itself in a terrible letdown spot against a team that’s better than you think. Troy is 4-3 (straight up). They’ve only been an underdog twice, at home vs. Liberty and at South Carolina. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by eight and nine points respectively. But they do come into Thursday on a four-game ATS losing streak. They had a terrible game where they lost outright (as a 23.5-pt favorite) to LA Monroe. The last two games have seen the Trojans win by three both times. They deserved the cover against Ga Southern earlier this month as they had a 409-301 edge in total yards. They were a little luckier last week against Texas State (+3 in turnovers), but again gained almost 400 total yards. Troy’s defense is only giving up an average of 19.6 PPG. That should keep them in this one from start to finish. That’s good enough for me when taking this many points. Again, this is the ultimate letdown spot for Coastal Carolina as they had the “bubble burst” last week and can no longer dream of a second straight undefeated regular season. Troy’s offense had a season-high in rush yards (205) vs. Texas State and has scored 10 out of 14 times on its first possession of a half. Coastal’s defense gave up a season-high 575 yards last week. Troy has had four extra days to prepare for this game and the last two meetings have been decided by a total of five points. Take the points. 8* Troy |
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10-27-21 | Cavs +8 v. Clippers | Top | 92-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (10:35 ET): The Cavaliers are competing for HC Bernie Bickerstaff as they’ve pulled B2B upsets, beating Atlanta and Denver. They beat the spread by a combined 35 points in those two wins, yet are still pretty sizable underdogs for tonight’s visit to the Clippers. This Los Angeles team, which is without Kawhi Leonard and several other key players (all injured), just picked up its first win of the season Monday when they crushed Portland 116-86 here at home. But I don’t think we’ll see anything close to a repeat of that performance here tonight. In addition to Leonard being out indefinitely, the Clips have yet to get any minutes this season from Serge Ibaka or Jason Preston. Marcus Morris is also questionable with a knee injury after missing the Portland game. Paul George has picked up the slack by averaging 28.7 PPG, but I don’t think the team can count on Luke Kennard shooting as well as he did on Monday when he matched a career-high with six three-pointers. Nor can LA count on Cleveland shooting as poorly as Portland did that day. The Blazers went 8 for 37 from behind the arc in that game. The Cavs pulled their two upsets thanks to some solid play on the defensive end. They held both the Hawks and Nuggets under 100 points. At the offensive end, the Cavs have had a different leading scorer in all four games. Is this a great team or even one that will make the playoffs? Probably not. But they’ve shown they’ve got the “goods” to at least stick within the number against a Clippers team that isn’t as good as it’s been in years’ past. Take the points in this one. 10* Cleveland |
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10-27-21 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -2 | Top | 96-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:05 ET): The Trail Blazers are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss at the Clippers Monday night. Even though it’s still early in the season, they can ill-afford anything close to a repeat of that performance as they host Memphis tonight on ESPN. The Blazers have dropped two of three so far, but did blow out the reigning Western Conference Champs (Phoenix) here at home over the weekend. I don’t think it’s asking too much for them to bounce back and win at home. Memphis 2-1 SU and has covered the spread in every game. They are coming off their first loss of the season, 121-118 to the Lakers on Sunday. Though the Grizzlies have been off for two days, this marks their third consecutive road game and they are also in Golden State tomorrow night. Ja Morant has been excellent, averaging 35 points and eight assists per game. But can he keep up THOSE kind of numbers? Probably not. Note that the Grizz have been behind at halftime each of the last two games. I’m expecting a big bounce back game from Damian Lillard tonight after he missed all eight three-point attempts against the Clippers. Also, Portland turned the ball over 30 times in that game. Lillard has had a cold start to the season, shooting just 36 percent and averaging 17.0 PPG. My guess is he’s going to be highly motivated going against Morant. The Blazers are traditionally a strong home team and seeing them lay such a short number, I can’t help but think we’re getting a “discount” in this one. 8* Portland |
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10-26-21 | Warriors v. Thunder +9.5 | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): As we all anticipated, it’s been a rough start to the season for OKC. The Thunder are 0-3 - both SU and ATS - and every loss has been by 12 points or more. But, even by their low standard, a fourth straight double digit loss to start the season seems unlikely. You just don’t see that very often. So I’ll call for a “circle the wagons” type performance tonight at home and take the points. Golden State is 3-0 SU and covered the spread in two of the wins. I took them on Opening Night when they “upset” the Lakers 121-114 as 3.5 point dogs. From there, they’ve since defeated the Clippers 115-103 and the Kings 119-107. In both instances, the Warriors were three-point favorites. Now they face their largest spread of the season. Oddsmakers are calling for a margin of victory that they’ve achieved only once thus far. The Warriors did defeat the Kings by 12 points on Sunday, but that was a game where they led by only two going into the fourth quarter. Steph Curry has been a bit inconsistent, scoring 45 points in the win against the Clippers but making just 6 of 23 three-point attempts in the other two games. The way I look at things, it’s very hard for a team to go four straight games without being competitive. The Thunder have shot 40.6% overall and 26.6% from three in the first three games. Those numbers are bound to improve and I believe they will tonight. 10* Oklahoma City |
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10-26-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
7* Run Line Atlanta (8:09 ET): First off, please note that I am taking the RUN LINE here with the Braves +1.5. The Braves have not beaten the Astros since 2014. But of course that is highly misleading as the teams haven’t even played since 2017. The Astros won all four meetings that year (‘17), so there’s a great sense of unfamiliarity between the clubs that once upon a time (pre-1994 realignment) were in the same division (NL West). Houston is the favorite and is making its third appearance in the Fall Classic in the last five years. (They’ve been in the ALCS each of the L5 seasons). For them, this series is about redemption as their 2017 WS win is generally thought to be tainted by a cheating scandal. Atlanta is making its first World Series appearance since 1999. That’s hard for me, a teenager for much of the ‘90s, to wrap my head around. The Braves were a WS mainstay in that decade, making it there FIVE times (but only winning once). Over the last 20 years, they’ve been a playoff mainstay, but never made it this far. It is incredible to think that this team had a LOSING record entering August! Since that time, they have a 43-21 record. It would be (very) foolish to discount their chances of winning this series as they just unseated the defending WS Champs (and the team I considered to be the best in baseball), the Dodgers. Unlike that series with the Dodgers, the Braves do NOT have home field advantage here. But looking at the starting pitching matchup for Game 1, I think they do have an edge. Charlie Morton has a lower ERA/WHIP than does Framber Valdez and his numbers are better on the road while Valdez’s are worse at home. Valdez did have the one dominant start in the ALCS, but hadn’t been all that good leading up to that. Morton has a 3-2 TSR his L5 starts with the two losses both coming by a single run. The Braves getting to use a DH in Houston is an added bonus. I don’t think that they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss in Game 1. 7* Run Line Atlanta |
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10-25-21 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Playing without Zion Williamson (out indefinitely with a foot injury), the Pelicans are off to an 0-3 SU start. But despite a horrid shooting night on Saturday, they still managed to cover the spread here in Minnesota. They shot 34.8% from the field and were 9 of 40 from three-point range in the 96-89 loss to the T’wolves. Not to mention they turned the ball over a franchise record 30 times! But New Orleans was a 7.5-point dog in that one, so they left with the cash. I anticipate the same thing will happen tonight. Take the points. While it was just a half-point cover on Saturday, you’ve got to figure the Pelicans are going to shoot the ball better this evening. Devonte Graham and Nickeil Alexander-Walker were the primary offenders, combining to shoot a horrendous 3 of 23 from three-point range. You’ve got to figure that duo will be much better tonight AND the number of turnovers will be cut down significantly. In the Pelicans’ previous game, Graham and Alexander-Walker were 9 of 17 from behind the arc. Because they are still winless, expect New Orleans to come out “hungry” on Monday. They did not get off to a good start to Saturday’s game, which was the second night of a back to back for them. Minnesota is 2-0 SU with the other win coming against a rebuilding Houston team. It’s fairly shocking to see the T’wolves favored in the first three games of the season. I don’t think they’re a very good basketball team and the defensive numbers we’ve seen so far will not be sustained. 10* New Orleans |
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10-24-21 | Magic +12 v. Knicks | Top | 110-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): A young Magic team that doesn’t have a single starter over the age of 23 has gotten off to an 0-2 start. Both losses have been blowouts. First, they fell by 26 to the Spurs. Then it was by 25 to the team they’ll face again Sunday, the Knicks. Against San Antonio, Orlando was at least competitive for most of the first half. The same cannot be said for Friday’s game with the Knicks where many fans in their own building were cheering for the road team. But I expect this one to be closer. Take the points. New York set a team record for most made threes in a game with 24 on Friday. That is not going to be replicated. The Knicks went to double overtime in their first game, winning a wild one, 138-134 over Boston. So they are 2-0 for the first time since 2012. Do I expect them to win this game? Yes. But covering a double digit spread is a different matter. The line closed at -8 for Friday’s game with the Magic. Now the linesmakers obviously had to account for the change in home court advantage as well as the final margin from Friday. But this looks like a classic overreaction. Orlando isn’t going to have a great year, but they will be desperate to avoid a third straight double digit loss to open the season. The Knicks are a team I expect to regress a bit this year as they can’t count on holding opponents to the lowest 3PT FG% in the league again like they did last season. 8* Orlando |
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10-24-21 | Washington Football Team +9 v. Packers | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -123 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): Seemingly all is well in Green Bay right now as the Packers are riding high on a five-game win streak. They’ve covered the spread in every win as well. But despite the 5-1 SU record, they have an unimpressive point differential of only +8. For comparison sake, all other NFC teams that are 5-1 SU (or better) have a YTD point differential of at least +51. So the Packers are really trailing the other division leaders in that regard. Now, the reason for the Packers’ less than impressive point differential, is the 38-3 beatdown they were handed in Week 1 by the Saints. But I feel this is worth mentioning. Two of the wins have been by a FG or less. Washington, like Green Bay, was a division winner last season. But unlike the Pack, it doesn’t seem like the Football Team is destined to repeat. They are 2-4 SU overall with those two wins coming by a combined five points over the Giants and Falcons. Ron Rivera’s team is also tied for the worst ATS mark in the league at 1-5. The only game they covered was the miracle comeback in Atlanta. But despite their defense not performing as well as expected thus far, I view this as a great “buy low” spot on Washington. This is a team that’s led in every game this season but one (at Buffalo). Green Bay’s defense has allowed a TD every time an opposing offense has entered the red zone this season. That’s bad. This has all the makings of a “trap game” for the Packers, who know that they have a “short week” coming up before a visit to undefeated Arizona on Thursday. Give credit to the Pack for the five-game win streak. It’s not easy to win five straight in this league. But they haven’t really beaten any great teams to this point. It’s even harder to win SIX straight, let alone cover six in a row, so I’m grabbing the points in this one. 8* Washington |
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10-23-21 | NC State v. Miami-FL +3.5 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:30 ET): “The U” came into the 2021 season with high hopes. They were ranked #14 in the country and opened against (then) #1 Alabama on a neutral field. As you know, that game did not go well for the contingent from Coral Gables. The Hurricanes were slaughtered 44-13. But lots of teams lose badly to Nick Saban. What the Miami fanbase was NOT counting on is three more losses over the next five games, including an 0-2 start in ACC play. At 2-4 SU, HC Manny Diaz is firmly on the “hot seat.” It’s obviously been a “topsy-turvy” season in the Atlantic Coast Conference as Clemson has already lost twice and is unranked. North Carolina, another preseason Top 10 team, is 3-3. The three ranked teams are Wake Forest (#16), Pitt (#23) and NC State (#18). The Wolfpack are 2-0 in conference play thus far and 5-1 SU overall. They’ve beaten Clemson (in overtime) and then last week (off a bye) was maybe their most impressive showing to date as they went to Chestnut Hill and throttled Boston College 33-7 as three-point favorites. This, to me, feels like a “sell high” spot on NC State and a time to “buy low” on Miami. Few would have envisioned, at the start of the season, that the Hurricanes would be getting points in this matchup. They easily could have won each of the L2 games, but missed GW FG against Virginia and then threw an INT in the red zone LW vs. UNC. Previous to last week, NC State had played only one other road game and they lost it, 24-10 to Mississippi State. They were outgained in a 34-27 win over Louisiana Tech (in Raleigh) three weeks ago. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Miami FL |
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10-23-21 | Clemson +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
9* Clemson (3:30 ET): It is painfully obvious by this point that Clemson does not have much offense. While last week did see them hold on to defeat a scrappy Syracuse team 17-14, they failed to cover (as 12.5-point chalk) and are now 0-6 ATS on the year! Only Missouri and New Mexico (both 0-7 ATS) are worse nationally when it comes to the betting window. I will readily admit that I was wrong to lay the points with the Tigers last Friday at the Carrier Dome. But this looks to be the ultimate “buy low” spot as for the 1st time since the National Championship Game at the end of the 2019 season, Clemson is an underdog. Take the points here. Dabo Swinney has not been an underdog in an ACC game since 2016. So this is something truly “out of the ordinary” as his Tigers head to Pitt for the first time ever. Because they’ve already lost two regular season games (first time since 2014), Clemson is out of the polls. But most power ratings, including my own, continue to have respect for them. Earlier I referenced the offensive struggles. But the defense has been great, holding every opponent to 14 points or less in regulation. When you’re favored by double digits - as the Tigers have been in every game but one - that doesn’t guarantee you’re going to cover the spread. But as a dog, that kind of defense is huge. It should also come in handy when facing a Pittsburgh team that came into last week leading the FBS in scoring. But the Panthers were held to “just” 28 points last week at Virginia Tech, a sign they can be kept in check. Something to keep in mind is that Pitt hadn’t exactly faced a slew of great defenses before heading to Blacksburg last weekend. While my power ratings respect the Panthers, calling them the ACC’s 2nd best team, Clemson is still #1 in that regard and I’m taking the points. 9* Clemson |
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10-23-21 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State -7 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
8* Iowa State (3:30 ET): It would be easy to forget that Iowa State began the season ranked in the Top 10. The Cyclones have already lost twice, once to Iowa and the other time to Baylor, and have been out of the Top 25 for a few weeks. Yet Matt Campbell’s team still finds itself favored here, by a touchdown, against a Top 10 opponent. That says something, doesn’t it? Note that in their losses, the Cyclones outgained Iowa 339-173 (but were -4 in turnovers) and Baylor 479-282. I think Oklahoma State is extremely fortunate to be 6-0 as they’ve had to come from behind in half of those wins. I’m laying the points in this Big 12 matchup. OSU may be a Top 10 team according to the pollsters, but I don’t even have them ranked in the Top 25 of my own power ratings. Just like the oddsmakers, I have Iowa State rated higher. Last week, the Cowboys really burned me against Texas, storming back from a two-touchdown deficit in the 1st half to win 32-24. It’s not the first time we’ve seen that from Mike Gundy’s outfit. The Pokes also came back (from a 13-point deficit) to beat Boise State 21-20, trailed Tulsa (at home) entering the 4th quarter and even had to hold off FCS Missouri State in the opener (only won by 7). All of OSU’s wins have been by 11 points or less and their luck is about to run out here in Ames. The Cowboys’ YTD scoring differential is actually the third lowest EVER for a 6-0 team in the AP Poll era! I don’t see them doing much on offense in this game as they are up against an Iowa State defense that leads the conference in both scoring (16.3 PPG) and yards allowed (251.3). The Cyclones, who have been favored in every game this season, are finally seeing their own offense “spring to life” as RB Breece Hall has had four straight 100+ yard games, including a season-high 197 last week in a 33-20 win at Kansas State. This is the second of B2B road games for OSU and I can’t see them winning both as underdogs. The ranks of the unbeaten are about to get smaller as Iowa State wins by more than a TD. 8* Iowa State |
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10-23-21 | Syracuse v. Virginia Tech -3 | Top | 41-36 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (12:30 ET): The underdog role always seems to serve Syracuse pretty well. They certainly should be used to it by now. This week marks the 21st consecutive game where they are getting points against a FBS opponent. Getting points is why they are 6-1 ATS this season and have covered five straight times. Each of the Orange’s last four games have been decided by exactly three points. While they’ve won only one of those straight up - a 24-21 upset of Liberty at the Carrier Dome - they’ve covered the spread in all four games. But after suffering three consecutive heartbreaking losses, you have to think a toll has been taken. I think that this week the ‘Cuse is ripe to be beaten and beaten badly. The most recent loss for the Orange came last Friday at home to Clemson. They easily covered the spread (closed +12.5) in that one, but lost (17-14) when they missed a FG in the final minute. The week before saw them lose in OT to Wake Forest, also at home. The week before that saw them lose 33-30 on a last second FG, one that was made by Florida State. What can this team possibly have left in the tank? Making matters more challenging is that the Orange have to leave their beloved Carrier Dome this week. Overall, Virginia Tech was not impressive in a home loss to Pittsburgh last week. But I thought the Hokies’ defense did a good job in holding what was the top scoring team in the country to just 28 points. That worked for me as I bet that game Under. The Hokies’ previous two losses were close games, at West Virginia (stopped on goal line in the final minute) and then at home vs. Notre Dame (GW FG kicked with 17 seconds left). So they could easily be coming into this game at 5-1 SU rather than 3-3.. I just can’t see Justin Fuente (on the hot seat) losing a third straight game in Blacksburg. The Hokies have a much better defense than Syracuse and I would rate them as better on neutral field. So lay the short number at home. 8* Virginia Tech |
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10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-83 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
9* Toronto (7:35 ET): Boston lost a tough one on Wednesday, dropping their first game in OT to the Knicks by a score of 138-134. Jaylen Brown, despite spending the majority of the previous 10 days in quarantine (COVID-19), scored 46 points for the Celtics. But obviously those went to waste. Jayson Tatum did not shoot the ball well at all, going 7 for 30 from the field including 2 of 15 from three-point range. The Celtics now turn around and host another division rival, that being Toronto. I think the spread is too high here. The Raptors also lost their first game, albeit in much lower-scoring fashion compared to the Celtics. They went down 98-83 at home to the Wizards. As you can tell from the score, it was not a banner shooting night from the NBA’s Canadian contingent. They made only 30.9% of their field goal attempts and were a dreadful 7 of 34 from three-point range. You have to figure - even with leading scorer Pascal Siakam sidelined - that we will see better shooting tonight. Even with Siakam hurt and Kyle Lowry traded in the offseason, I think there's a case that Toronto will be better than it was last season. Despite going 27-45 SU in 2020-21, the Raptors were only outscored by 0.4 PPG. They were essentially playing to the level of a .500 team before the bottom dropped out at the end of the season and they lost their last seven games (injuries). This is a revenge game for them after being swept in LY’s season series. I look for this to be a close game that comes down to the wire. 9* Toronto |
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10-21-21 | Broncos v. Browns -1.5 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:20 ET): This may seem like a “risky” bet, given how banged up the Browns are on the offensive side of the ball. With it being a short week, backup Case Keenum will be the starting QB and he won’t have either of the team's two main running backs (Hunt, Chubb) to hand the ball off to. Receiver is a question mark as is the offensive line. But Keenum knows HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense from the time the two spent together in Minnesota. This is the first time the Browns have lost two in a row under Stefanski and I just can’t see them losing a third in a row. Not at home against another reeling team. Lay the points. Denver’s 3-0 SU start to the season now seems like a distant memory. It’s critical to keep in mind that those three wins came at the expense of the Giants, Jets & Jaguars, who are a collective 3-15 SU this season. The Broncos have since nosedived with three straight losses (Ravens, Steelers, Raiders), all of which have been by eight points or more. Their QB (Teddy Bridgewater) is far from 100% right now (foot, quad) and the same could be said for a defense which gave up SEVEN plays of 25+ yards to the Raiders last week (most since ‘91) and is down three starting linebackers. Cleveland played a terrible game last week vs. Arizona, but they easily could have been 5-0 going into that game. They blew halftime leads against both the Chiefs and the Chargers. I know this isn’t “the same team” as those first five games, but I think the Browns will be motivated (in front of a National TV audience) to prove their detractors wrong. Denver was tied for the league lead in net upsets (+5) last season, something that typically does NOT carry over to the following year. It’s interesting that they’ve already lost three games as a favorite this season and this is the first time they’ve been an underdog. The number has come down significantly throughout the week to where there’s value on the Browns. 8* Cleveland |
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10-21-21 | Bucks -2 v. Heat | Top | 95-137 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:05 ET): The Bucks began the defense of their NBA Championship with a convincing 127-104 victory over Brooklyn on Opening Night. What was so impressive about that is they won by 23 despite the Nets shooting 53.1% from three-point range! And it’s not like the Bucks were exactly “on fire” from behind the arc; they made just 17 of 45 attempts. But they had 21 more FG attempts than Brooklyn did and Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 32-14-7 and shot 12/25 from the floor. This is Miami’s season opener. They come into 2021-22 with some new faces, most notably Kyle Lowry, who they obtained in trade with Toronto. He joins Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo as the three cornerstones of the team. The Heat are hoping Lowry helps them move up the Eastern Conference standings after a sixth place finish last year. But this is a tough first game against the team that swept them in the first round of last year’s playoffs. Three of those four games were decided by double digits. I don’t think the Heat are THAT much better now than they were in May. The Heat did not have a particularly impressive net efficiency rating or point differential last season. They very much were a slightly above average team. The Bucks had the East’s best point differential and obviously went on to win the whole thing. Seeing as the better team already has a game under its belt, I consider that to be a pretty significant advantage for Thursday night’s game. The Bucks are likely to shoot better here than they did on Tuesday, which is a frightening proposition for Miami. 10* Milwaukee |
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10-21-21 | Tulane +14 v. SMU | Top | 26-55 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 14 m | Show |
10* Tulane (7:30 ET): SMU enters the week as one of the 11 remaining unbeatens in College Football. Over time, you know that number is going to dwindle. This may not be the week that the Ponies suffer their first SU loss, however I definitely am going to fade them and take the points with Tulane. In my own personal power ratings, SMU has the third lowest ranking among the 11 unbeatens. Not only do they fail to crack my Top 25, they barely crack the Top 50! So I definitely think they're being overvalued this week against a Tulane team that is better than most realize. Tulane is just 1-5 SU and has given up a ton of points during an 0-4 SU/ATS losing streak. But the Green Wave have faced some tough competition thus far, including Oklahoma, Ole Miss, UAB and Houston. This is a team that can put points on the board as they average 32.8 PPG, led by QB Michael Pratt. The SMU defense, despite not facing many great offenses so far, has given up an average of 5.7 yards per play. Tulane has been favored in half of its games so far, so you’d expect them to have a better overall record coming into this game. Again, they are going to be a tougher out than most realize, especially for a SMU team that may be looking ahead. The Mustangs still have upcoming road games with Houston, Memphis and Cincinnati (the big one) where their unbeaten record (if still intact) will be put to the test. Their focus may very well be on those games right now. In addition to being a bit of a tricky spot for the favorite, there are some trends that support a play on the underdog here. The road team has covered 11 of the previous 15 meetings between these schools and Tulane is 9-2 ATS coming off a conference loss. SMU, who could barely scrape by Navy in its last game, is just 2-9 ATS off a conference win. Half of the Mustangs wins have been by eight points or less and against Navy they were down by two touchdowns. 10* Tulane |
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10-20-21 | Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (7:30 ET): I have no unearthly idea what happened to Appalachian State last Tuesday when they suffered a humiliating 41-13 defeat at Louisiana. I do know they turned the ball over four times and were 0 for 11 on third down. You’re not going to win many football games doing that. It was a highly uncharacteristic effort from the Mountaineers, whose only other loss this year came by two points at Miami FL. Perhaps last week was a case of “looking ahead” to this game, a showdown with undefeated and reigning Sun Belt Champion Coastal Carolina. Whatever the reason was, I’m calling for ASU to bounce back at home. Take the points. It’s been 13 days since Coastal Carolina last took the field. The 52-20 win over Arkansas State made the Chanticleers the first team in the country to become bowl eligible. But they are obviously interested in far more than just making it to a bowl. This team had an undefeated regular season last year (11-0) before losing to Liberty 37-34 (OT) in the Cure Bowl. Now the Chants are looking to represent the “Group of Five” in a New Year’s Six Bowl. This will be by far their toughest test to date as so far Coastal has been a two-touchdown favorite in every game. They’ve been favored by 20 or more in all but one game and three times they’ve been favored by 30 or more. You have to remember that Louisiana (who smoked App State last week) is the Sun Belt’s “other good team.” It was a bad loss for the Mountaineers, but not something they can’t overcome. Coming into the season, this is the game they circled as they’ve got revenge for a 34-23 loss in Conway last season. Now the game is in Boone, where ASU has suffered only two losses the L3 years and both were by a field goal. They have not been a home dog since 2017. Coastal came out of NOWHERE in 2020 (were picked to finish 5th in the SBC!) and as a result, I felt their record would regress this season. If they are to lose a regular season game, it would clearly be this one. To this point, the Chanticleers have not faced a team I’d consider to be ranked in the top 100 in the country. App State is on their level, particularly at home. Coming off last week’s shocking loss, this is a great “buy low” spot on the home dog. 8* Appalachian State |
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10-19-21 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:05 ET): The Warriors’ 2020-21 season came to an end in the play-in round and the Lakers were partly responsible for that. The league’s very first play-in game saw these teams match up and it was LA winning 103-100 on a last second LeBron James’ three-pointer. Golden State would get a second chance to advance to the playoffs, but also lost that one, 117-112 to Memphis (in overtime). Still, last season was an improvement for the Dubs after plummeting to the worst record in the league two years ago. Meanwhile, there was only one way to go for the Lakers after winning the NBA Championship in 2020. As is obvious by the fact they were in the play-in round, LA regressed heavily last season. Only three players are back from LY’s team, two of them being LeBron James and Anthony Davis. So I would not count on a fast start from “Showtime” in 2021-22. LeBron is now 36 years old and has played the second most minutes in NBA history. For what it’s worth, with all the new faces, the Lakers were 0-6 SU in the preseason. Golden State was 5-0 SU in its preseason, two of those wins coming against the Lakers! It is clear that the Warriors are getting back to the mentality that brought them multiple NBA Championships and that mentality involves shooting a lot of threes. We started to see it at the end of last year’s regular season. Steph Curry scored 41 in the final preseason game and with him and Draymond Green on the court at the same time, the Dubs destroyed opponents (provided James Wiseman was also NOT on the court). The revenge angle is big here and I don’t think Russell Westbrook is ready to be a difference maker for the Lakers just yet. Take the points. 8* Golden State |
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10-18-21 | Bills -5.5 v. Titans | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 37 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (8:20 ET): I said it in my analysis for the Sunday night game last week, but I’ll repeat it here. The Bills are the best team in the league right now. They have a +108 point differential after going to Kansas City and winning 38-20 as 2.5-point underdogs. No other team in the league (entering Sunday) has a YTD point differential better than +62. Each of their four straight wins have been by at least 18 points. So while the spread seems high for Monday night’s game in Tennessee, I’m laying it. The Titans are 3-2 and will probably win their division. But I don’t think they’re an elite team by any means or even as good as they’ve been the last couple years. Winning the AFC South should not be viewed as any major achievement as it’s the worst division in football. Two of the Titans’ three wins this year have been against division rivals (Indianapolis and Jacksonville) and they were actually outgained last week by the Jags as the defense gave up nearly 7.0 yards per play to a winless team. Don’t forget the Titans also lost to the Jets. They are certainly not on the Bills’ level. Buffalo’s offense leads the league in scoring and QB Josh Allen should have a field day against a suspect Tennessee defense. For the year, the Titans are being outgained on a per play basis. On offense, they have allowed the most sacks in the league (20) and have a banged up WR corps. Last week saw the Bills avenge their loss in LY’s AFC Championship Game. Here the revenge tour continues as they lost 42-16 to Tennessee last season. They remember that and won’t take their foot off the gas pedal. 10* Buffalo |
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10-17-21 | Cowboys v. Patriots +4 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 8 m | Show |
10* New England (4:25 ET): Dallas is the only team in the league to still be undefeated ATS. The Cowboys ran their mark to 5-0 ATS (and 4-1 SU) with a convincing 44-20 win last week (as seven-point favorites). But the team they beat (the Giants) resembled the “walking wounded” by the end of that game. By the time the second half kicked off, the G-Men were without SEVEN of their Week 1 starters on offense. This included QB Jones, RB Barkley and WR Golladay. So it’s no wonder that the Cowboys were able to win so easily. This week’s opponent seems a lot healthier and is also coming off a win. Now it was closer than anyone expected, but the Patriots did get by the Texans 25-22. This will now be the second time in three weeks that the Pats are home underdogs, something that never happened all that much when Tom Brady was the QB here. You may recall that I took the Patriots two weeks ago when they hosted Brady’s new team (Tampa Bay) and they came away with the cash, covering the number in a close 19-17 loss. If they can stick with the Bucs (lone team to beat Dallas this year), then they can stick with - or beat - the Cowboys. It all starts with a New England defense that gives up only 18.3 PPG. That’s top five in the league. Then, as I discussed in the analysis for the TB game, Bill Belichick has been great as an underdog throughout his career. He’s 49-24-1 ATS here in NE, including 25-10-1 since 2006. As a home dog, Belichick is 15-4 ATS with 12 outright wins. Dallas is an extremely “public” side this week and I definitely trust my money with Belichick more so than I do with Mike McCarthy. Take the points. 10* New England |
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10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -120 | 102 h 48 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:05 ET): Arizona is 5-0 SU and the only unbeaten left in the NFL. But they were also the only team to win last week while being outgained on a per play basis. The 49ers outgained them for the game (338-304) and 5.7 to 5.1 per play. It was a lucky break facing a rookie QB (Trey Lance), who had to make his first career start on the road. Eventually, you know that the Cardinals are going to lose a game. This week, the Cards are poised to be without several key players as they go on the road to face a good Cleveland team. This is where the first loss happens. Cleveland is 3-2 with the two losses being close ones on the road to the Chiefs and Chargers. In both instances, Kevin Stefanski’s team led at halftime. Last week saw them put up 42 points and 532 yards with zero turnovers. They were the first team in NFL history to do that and still lose. That’s little consolation for the Browns, but the good news is that they’ve won six straight times off a SU loss and are 6-0 ATS L6 non-conference games. Arizona has already gone on the road and won three times, twice as an underdog. I can’t see them doing it again. Not with three positive COVID tests among players and staff this week. The one player we know that tested positive is LB Chandler Jones. That’s in addition to the losses of TE Maxx Williams (out for season) and center Rodney Houston to injuries. Cleveland also has its fair share of injuries, but can lean on the league’s best rushing attack and that will be the difference in a game where most of the focus will be about Mayfield vs. Murray. 8* Cleveland |
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10-17-21 | Vikings -1 v. Panthers | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 99 h 44 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (1:00 ET): With the exception of an impressive 30-17 win they had up in Seattle, the Vikings have played nothing but close games this season. Four times things have been decided by seven points or less and last week one FINALLY went Mike Zimmer’s way as the Vikes got a last second FG to beat the Lions 19-17. It really should have never come to that as they led by 10 with less than three minutes remaining, only to give up a FG, then a touchdown after an inexcusable fumble. I happen to agree with the line move here and will play Minnesota as a road favorite. Carolina has been a bit exposed following a 3-0 SU/ATS start. They’ve dropped B2B games, failing to cover the number both times. I faded them last week when they hosted Philadelphia and that proved to be the correct decision as the Eagles came from behind to win 21-18. Like Minnesota, there was a late miscue you can point to (blocked punt), but unlike the Vikings, the Panthers could not overcome it. I remain unsold on Sam Darnold, who has thrown five interceptions and been sacked eight times in the team’s two losses. Despite a 2-3 SU record, the Vikings have a positive point differential, which is something definitely worth mentioning. I know that Minnesota has had its fair share of struggles at the “pay window” going back to last year, but that’s something that’s going to improve moving forward. Carolina may have solid defensive numbers thus far, but they really haven’t faced many good QB’s. The one time they did, they gave up 36 points to Dak Prescott and Dallas. Kirk Cousins has the “goods” to make them pay here and I don’t think the return of Christian McCaffery is enough to stop the Panthers from losing their third straight game. 8* Minnesota |
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10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +10 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -105 | 125 h 42 m | Show |
10* New Mexico (7:00 ET): Few teams got off to a worse start in 2021 than Colorado State did. The Rams lost outright (42-23!) to FCS South Dakota State in their first game. Then they lost again as favorites (at home to Vanderbilt) the following week. The season then took a drastic turn with a 22-6 upset of Toledo on the road. CSU’s only TD in that game came on a punt return. They surprisingly stayed close in Iowa City (led at the half) and then last week came what was easily their best game, a 32-14 win over San Jose State. But even that one comes with the “asterisk” of being +3 in turnover differential. Now taking New Mexico here, even with the points, does require a “leap of faith''. The Lobos are one of only two 0-6 ATS teams in the country. They’re losing by an average of 12.3 PPG and are near the bottom of the FBS in scoring. But they’ve also faced some pretty good teams on the road, like Texas A&M and San Diego State. They also hosted Air Force, who is 5-1 SU. Considering where Colorado State was a month ago, this is precisely the “drop in class” (in terms of the opponent) that they need in Albuquerque right now. The home team will also be highly motivated come Saturday night. Not just to end their four-game losing streak in 2021, but also to end a 10-game losing streak to CSU. This is what you need to know - every win New Mexico has had in the L3 seasons has come at Dreamstyle Stadium. Colorado State only averages 22.4 PPG and this is their first time favored on the road since they lost by 21 at Fresno State in LY’s opener. UNM is obviously due to cover and this is probably the most opportune time to take them all season. Take the points. 10* New Mexico |
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10-16-21 | Texas A&M v. Missouri +9 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 44 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): Well, this is certainly the ultimate “letdown” spot for A&M isn’t it? Last week, I called it a “great buy low spot” on the Aggies, who were coming off B2B losses (after previously winning 11 in a row) and getting a ton of points at home. Well, wouldn’t you know they went out and pulled the biggest upset of the College Football season, beating top-ranked Alabama 41-38. It’s now a completely different situation this week as Jimbo Fisher’s team must guard against overconfidence as they hit the road to face Missouri, a conference opponent they haven’t faced in awhile. Gotta fade this week. Both of these schools moved from the Big 12 to the SEC in 2012. They faced off in 2013 & ‘14 w/ Mizzou winning both games. Going back to their Big 12 days, the Tigers have won five of the previous six matchups! This is A&M’s first trip to Columbia since that initial SEC meeting in 2013. Now when the Aggies arrive they may find a fanbase that’s bordering on destitution. That’s because Mizzou has not covered a single spread in 2021 and is on an 0-8 ATS run dating back to last season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the country. Why would I be interested in taking the Tigers then? Well, in addition to this being the ultimate letdown spot for A&M and Mizzou being “just plain due,” this is the most points the Tigers have gotten in any game this season and the first time they are a home dog. Two of their losses have been by seven points (one in OT at Boston College). They led by 27 in the 4Q LW at home vs. North Texas and should have covered that game (were -18.5). I bought low on A&M last week, now it’s time to “sell high” on them and buy low on the opposition. Take the points. 8* Missouri |
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10-16-21 | Oklahoma State v. Texas -5 | Top | 32-24 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 44 m | Show |
10* Texas (12:00 ET): They say “everything is bigger” down in Texas and in the case of my top Big XII selection for the 2021 College Football season, that is certainly the case. Obviously, the Longhorns really let one “slip away” last week in the Red River Rivalry. They led Oklahoma 28-7 after 1Q, 38-20 at half and 41-30 after the 3Q. They lost 55-48. As an added “kick in the teeth,” they didn’t even cover the pointspread. Despite that being their second loss of the season, I still believe the Longhorns can be a Top 10 team by season’s end. Love them this week as my power ratings say this should be a double digit spread! It’s another unbeaten team from the state of Oklahoma that UT is facing this week. This time it’s Oklahoma State, who is 5-0 SU and coming off a bye. In all due respect to Mike Gundy’s team, they are no Oklahoma. The Cowboys have lived dangerously the first month of the season, winning every game by 11 points or less and three of those wins were by a total of 13 points. They trailed in three of the five wins, barely outgained a FCS team and were down entering the 4Q vs. Tulsa. They were down double digits to Boise State in their only previous road game. That last sentence brings me to another difference between this and last week for Texas - this game takes place in Austin where they are a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2021. Also, just to reiterate the drop in class when it comes to the opposition, I (like everyone else) consider Oklahoma a top six team in the country. The pollsters may have OK State at #12 entering this week, but they don’t even make my Top 35! It speaks volumes that the unranked team is favored here. A few weeks ago, when discussing Va Tech-WVU, I talked about how well unranked favorites tend to do ATS when hosting Top 25 opponents. Lay the points here as OK State’s unbeaten run will come to an end. 10* Texas |
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10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +8.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 104 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Jose State (10:30 ET): The abbreviated 2020 College Football season saw San Jose State come out of nowhere to win its first conference title since 1984! The Spartans upset Boise State in the MWC Championship Game and took an unbeaten record (7-0 SU!) into the Arizona Bowl. That’s when I struck. My 10* College Football Game of the Year was not only on their bowl opponent, Ball State +9, but SJSU ended up losing that game outright 34-13. Needless to say, that was one of my biggest wins EVER. This year SJSU (19 returning starters) went from the hunter to the hunted and things have not gone as well. They’re 3-3 SU through six weeks and while they’ve won every game they were supposed to win (3-0 SU as favorites), they’re 0-5 ATS L5 games. Last week may have been their worst game since the Arizona Bowl as they turned it over three times and were beaten 32-14 at Colorado State. It may seem like a strange time to jump on board, but this Friday marks the 1st game in 2021 that the Spartans have been installed as home underdogs. I really like the spot. They haven’t lost a home game since 2019. It seems as if things have almost come full circle as SJSU will be welcoming in the last remaining unbeaten in the Mountain West, San Diego State. The Aztecs are 5-0 SU with a couple upset wins over Pac 12 schools (Arizona & Utah). But they were outgained twice, in the OT win over Utah and by New Mexico State (!). This is just their second road game. They are ranked #24 by the AP & the Coaches, but they barely scratch my top 75 and are easily the lowest rated of the 13 remaining unbeatens. San Jose State was on a 6-2 ATS run as a conference dog before running into a rested opponent last week. After the turnovers, Colorado State only had to move the ball 37 yards to get nine crucial points. Playing host to an unbeaten team, on a short week, is a much different scenario. Take the points. 10* San Jose State |
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10-15-21 | Clemson -14 v. Syracuse | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 45 m | Show |
8* Clemson (7:00 ET): The last three weeks have seen Syracuse host two unbeaten teams. The first, which was Liberty, left with a loss. The second was Wake Forest last Saturday. That game went to overtime, but this time the Orange came up a little short, losing 40-37 on the scoreboard. But they did leave with the cash as 5.5-point underdogs. It was their fourth straight game covering the spread and they are now 5-1 ATS overall on the season. (Only ATS loss was to Rutgers). It’s certainly surprising that Clemson isn’t the third straight unbeaten to visit the Carrier Dome. Even more shocking is that Dabo Swinney’s team has already lost TWICE, once to Georgia (that’s fine) and then in overtime at NC State (not that bad). Even after rebounding two weeks ago against Boston College (won 19-14), the Tigers are 0-5 ATS. They are one of just three FBS teams to be winless against the spread. I know that the offense has lacked “pop.” But coming out of a bye, this is a GREAT buy low spot. While Clemson is rested, Syracuse is coming off three consecutive games that were decided by three points. Eventually that’s got to wear a team down. Normally, the Orange would be “up” for a visit from the ACC’s resident stalwart, but this time I think they are ripe for the picking. After spending one week out of the Top 25 (first time since 2014), Clemson should be ready to go on a run. They are still in the Top 10 in my power ratings and must be respected. We’re getting a discount here. Trust me. Lay the points. 8* Clemson |
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7.5 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:20 ET): The road team has gone 5-0 ATS on Thursday Night Football this season, but only 2-3 straight up. Obviously, most are anticipating that SU record will be “squared away” after tonight as the Bucs visit the Eagles. But the Super Bowl Champs best be careful here as Philly is coming off a SU win (I had ‘em!) last week in Carolina. As I said in my analysis for that game, the Eagles have actually outgained their opponents - on a per play and per game basis - despite the losing record. Certainly, the score of last week’s Bucs game will only further attract more bettors to them. They won 45-17 with Tom Brady throwing for 400+ yards and five touchdowns. But they were facing a terrible Miami team, who I have rated dead last in the league in my own personal power ratings. Two of Tampa's other three victories this season have been by just two points. They’ve not fared well on TNF previously, going just 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS. That includes the season opener vs. Dallas where they won 31-29, but did not cover as nine-point chalk. The Eagles are 0-2 SU/ATS at home thus far, so you know they’re going to be highly motivated to win in front of their fans for the first time under HC Nick Sirianni. It’s not often you get them in this price range, but they are 8-1 ATS the L9 times they’ve been a dog of 7.5 or more points with five outright wins. QB Hurts did not play great last week against a good Carolina defense, but did throw for a career-high 387 yards in his last home game. Here he'll be facing a banged-up Bucs secondary that has given up the most passing yardage in the league. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-14-21 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
8* Memphis (7:30 ET): What has happened to Memphis? Since pulling off a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win against Mississippi State last month, the Tigers have lost three straight games - by a total of 12 points. They were favored in two of the losses - home vs. UTSA and at Temple. Both of those games saw them blow 17+ point leads. Last week in Tulsa, the Tigers outgained their opponents by nearly 200 yards, but that was wiped away by a -3 turnover differential and they lost on the scoreboard 35-29 as a 3.5-point underdog. Needless to say, they are glad to be back at the Liberty Bowl where they’ve won 17 of 18. Save for a shocking 34-30 upset over UCF, who was starting a backup QB, Navy has mostly been a sinking ship in 2021. The Middies are 1-4 SU and coming off a tough 31-24 loss to unbeaten SMU. While they led by as many as two touchdowns in the 2Q, Navy was outgained in the game 404-241. This offense has simply not been clicking the way it used to as the Midshipmen are averaging only 3.7 yards per carry and 282.6 total yards per game. This will be just the second time Ken Niumatalolo’s team has had to “set sail” from Annapolis this season. I don’t like the spot for them. Had they not rallied with 17 4Q points against UCF, then Navy would be 0-5. Memphis’ one loss at Liberty Bowl in the last 18 tries came the last time they were here, against UTSA, whom they led 21-0 early. I certainly can’t see the Tigers dropping B2B home games and will lay the points here as they’ve outgained their L3 opponents despite being 0-3 SU/ATS! The problem is they were -7 in TO’s in those three games. They gained over 600 yards of total offense last week. Navy is 3-0 ATS its L3 games, but they’ve been a dog of 13 or more points every time. Pardon another pun, but the Midshipmen are lacking in the necessary “firepower” here. 8* Memphis |
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10-10-21 | Bills +3 v. Chiefs | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
9* Buffalo (8:20 ET): The Bills have a serious claim to being the league’s top team right now as they have a +90 point differential, which is #1 overall and the second best point differential through four games in franchise history (only the ‘92 Super Bowl team was better). They are just the second team since the merger to post two shutout victories by at least 30 points (the great ‘91 Washington team is the other) in the first four weeks of the season. Yes, they’ve beaten up on some bad teams. But this week, they have the chance to prove themselves on a national stage in a big revenge spot. I think they get it done. This is pretty clearly not the same Chiefs team that we saw make the Super Bowl each of the last two years. A defense that’s 31st in scoring and 32nd in yards per play is pretty difficult to overcome, even if you have Patrick Mahomes. Not to mention the entire starting offensive line is different from 2020. The defense allowed 29+ points in every game so far and really struggles in the red zone, which is huge for a Buffalo offense that would have even more points if not for settling for nine field goals in 21 RZ opportunities. Meanwhile, Mahomes faces a stiff test this week going up against the league’s #1 scoring defense, which has allowed just 21 points in the L3 games (all to Washington) & is #1 in yards per play. Truthfully, Kansas City was “playing with fire” last season as they were a ridiculously lucky 9-0 SU in games decided by six points or less. Given that record, it’s not really a surprise to see the team regressing somewhat in 2021. Before last week’s 42-30 win in Philadelphia, the Chiefs had covered just two of its previous 14 games. There’s also a revenge angle in play Sunday night as the Bills lost twice to the Chiefs last season, including in the AFC Championship Game. Revenge is one thing, but the Bills are simply better than the Chiefs right now with an obviously massive edge on the defensive side of the ball. Take the points. 9* Buffalo |
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10-10-21 | Eagles +3 v. Panthers | Top | 21-18 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Since opening the season with an impressive 32-6 beatdown of Atlanta, the Eagles have yet to win again. They’ll arrive in Carolina Sunday on a three-game losing streak - both SU and ATS. The last two losses saw them matched up against a couple of the league’s premier teams, Dallas and Kansas City. The Jalen Hurts led offense put up lots of yards and a decent amount of points in those games, but it obviously wasn’t enough either time. Here, they’ll be matched up with a banged up Panthers team that’s coming off its first loss of 2021. I smell “upset,” so take the points. I’d say that the biggest issue in Philly right now is a defense that’s allowed the second most rush yards in the league. But that unit catches a break here as Panther starting Guard Pat Elflien is on IR and Tackle Cam Erving is not expected to play. So even if RB Christian McCaffery does return from his own injury, he’ll be operating behind a line that’s down both starters on the left side. I’m still not sold on QB Sam Darnold, even though he led Carolina to a 3-0 start. Remember two of those wins were against the Jets and Texans. Facing those type of teams is why the Panthers entered last week #1 in total defense. But as we saw they got shredded by Dallas (433 yds allowed) in a 36-28 loss. Clearly, the Eagles are not as good or potent offensively as the Cowboys are. But Hurts is coming off B2B games with 300 yards passing, including a career-high 387 last week. The team has outgained its opponents - on a per game and per play basis - despite the 1-3 SU start. Last week, they had to face the Chiefs on a short week and still it was a one possession game in the 4Q. Carolina’s is banged up on BOTH sides of the ball as they just put two defensive starters on IR and LB Shaq Thompson has been ruled out as well. 10* Philadelphia |
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10-10-21 | Saints -2 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
9* New Orleans (1:00 ET): For most of last week, it appeared as if the Saints were headed for a victory and Washington was headed for a loss. But instead, the opposite happened. New Orleans shockingly blew a double digit 4Q lead at home and lost in OT to the Giants, 27-21. Meanwhile, Washington came from behind to defeat Atlanta 34-30. What I’m going to do here is use those surprising results to my advantage and take what I feel is an undervalued Saints team on the road this week. Lay the points. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in these two teams’ games this season. That includes 4-0 in Saints’ games. New Orleans has definitely taken an unconventional path to 2-2 SU as they’ve won both times they were dogs (Green Bay, New England) but lost outright both times as favorites (Carolina, Giants). Washington has been favored three times this year, but the only time they covered in that role was last week in Atlanta. The one time they were an underdog, they got blown out 43-21 in Buffalo. Washington’s two wins have been by five total points and came against the Falcons and Giants, two teams that are a combined 2-6 SU right now. They’ve got a backup QB (Taylor Heinicke) under center and the defense isn’t playing anywhere near the level it did last year. Making matters worse, two defensive starters were lost for the season last week. There are also key injuries on offense. The Saints’ offense has obviously fallen off somewhat without Drew Brees, but the defense remains elite, allowing just 66 YPG rushing on 3.1 YPC. I can’t see Heinicke single-handedly leading a Washington upset here. The Saints are a fantastic 30-12 ATS L42 road games. 9* New Orleans |
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10-09-21 | Memphis +3.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 29-35 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 59 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:00 ET): After pulling out a somewhat miraculous 31-29 win at Mississippi State three weeks ago, the worm has really turned against Memphis. They’ve lost two straight, blowing 17+ point leads in both games. I can’t decide which “choke job” was more shocking. Was it the one at home against UTSA where they up 21-0 after one quarter and never trailed until the final play? Or was it last week where they were 11-point favorites over a bad Temple team? Regardless what the correct answer is, I see the Tigers bouncing back this week against a Tulsa team that should NOT be laying points. Tulsa is 1-4 SU and just got handed its lunch by Houston last Thursday. It was 28-0 early in the 2Q and ended up being a 45-10 final. I can understand the Golden Hurricane getting a little respect here as they did cover at both Oklahoma State and Ohio State. But they also lost outright at home to FCS Cal Davis in the season opener. They did not play Memphis in 2020, but have lost the last three head to head matchups (2017-19) by an average of 18 PPG. Again, I just don’t see how they’re favored here. Last year snapped Memphis’ three-year streak of AAC Championship Game appearances. The loss to UTSA ended a 17-game win streak at the Liberty Bowl. But they are still a stronger team than Tulsa. They’ve led for 104 of the 120 minutes the L2 games, yet somehow managed to go 0-2. I think this is a “get right” game. They’ve scored 31 or more points in all five games and could easily be 5-0. Tulsa has topped 23 points in only one game thus far and that just won’t cut it here. 8* Memphis |
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10-09-21 | Alabama v. Texas A&M +18 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (8:00 ET): A&M had an 11-game win streak (going back to last season, obviously) snapped two weeks ago by Arkansas. Then they lost again last week to Mississippi State. Now they must face top-ranked Alabama this Saturday night at Kyle Field. Things have definitely turned in College Station, but with “the world” figuring to be on ‘Bama in this one, I think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Aggies, who are at home and getting a ton of points. They are still a Top 20 team in my eyes. Running through Alabama’s credentials would probably only serve to dissuade your interest in the other side, so I’ll refrain from doing so here. It is interesting though that the public had some doubt in Nick Saban’s team going into last week’s game with Ole Miss. Now they’re back on the Bama train. Coming into the season, this was thought to be the Crimson Tide’s toughest regular season matchup. I know A&M is dealing with some key injuries, but should bettors really be writing them off to this degree? Zach Calzada will make his 4th start at QB for Texas A&M. The offense has definitely suffered since Haynes King broke his leg against Colorado, but I think the Aggies can put enough points on the board here to stay within the number. Defensively, they’ve yet to allow more than 26 points in any game this season. I’m sure they’ll allow more than that here, but it is worth noting they allow fewer PPG than does the Bama defense. Bama’s defense struggled in its only other “true” road game, giving up 29 points and 440 yards to Florida. Take the points. 8* Texas A&M |
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10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
8* LSU (7:30 ET): LSU is 3-2 SU on the year and coming off a 24-19 loss to Auburn, which prompted HC Ed Orgeron to come out and take “responsibility” for the ongoing woes in the Bayou. This program is just two years removed from winning the National Championship, but has gone just 8-7 SU since. With last week marking the first of six consecutive games against teams currently ranked in the Top 25, Orgeron better get this figured out quick. This week, the Tigers are road underdogs to a 5-0 Kentucky team. But UK is a bit fortunate to still be unbeaten in my view. They squeaked by Florida last week, 20-13, despite the Gators running NINE plays inside the 20-yard line in the final minute. It was the Wildcats’ first time beating Florida at home in 35 years, so this week is a bit of a letdown spot even though it’s LSU coming to town. Mark Stoops’ team was outgained 382-224 last week and it was their fourth straight win by seven points or less. Eventually, lady luck runs out on you. For UK, I think that time will be this week. For what it’s worth, LSU led Auburn for most of the game last week. They only trailed for the final 3:11. It was a 13-point lead in the 2Q and nine-point lead entering the 4Q. This looks to be a great buy low spot as my power rankings say the Tigers should be the favorites in this one, even on the road. Kentucky now goes from the hunter to the hunted and I just can’t see an LSU team that’s been favored in every game thus far dropping to 3-3 SU. They are 10-3 ATS L13 as underdogs and 6-1 ATS L7 off an ATS loss. Take the points. 8* LSU |
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10-09-21 | Georgia Southern v. Troy -5.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 0 m | Show |
10* Troy (7:00 ET): Troy is coming off B2B losses and because of that, I think we’re getting a pretty solid value this week. Both losses took place on the road, the first being a real shocker vs. LA Monroe, a game Troy was favored to win by 23.5 points and had a 378-290 edge in total yards. Yet somehow they lost 29-16. Then came a game effort last week at South Carolina, but four turnovers proved to be the Trojans’ undoing there. The most costly TO was a “pick-six” in the final minute of the 1st half. Troy actually finished with more first downs than the Gamecocks (21-19), but that was little consolation in a 23-14 defeat as 6.5-point dogs. I’m expecting a lot better performance from Chip Lindsey’s team this week as they return home to face Georgia Southern. Not only are the Trojans looking to square away their record at 3-3 SU this season, but they’re playing with revenge for a 20-13 loss last year in Statesboro where they were three-point favorites. This is Lindsey’s third year here and he’s still looking to return the program to the level of 2017-19 when the Trojans won 10+ games every year under Neal Brown. In the first home game in nearly a month, this is pretty close to “must win” for Lindsey. Ga Southern just ended a three-game losing streak last week with a 59-33 win over Arkansas State. It was their first game under interim HC Kevin Whitley as Chad Lunsford was fired after a 1-3 start. It was somewhat of a misleading home win for Whitley and the Eagles as total yardage was even but they were +4 in turnovers. Both times Ga Southern has been asked to go on the road, they’ve lost by 30+ points. This is a one-dimensional team on offense and defensively they rank 114th in the country in scoring. Troy is 22nd in the country in scoring defense, allowing only 17 PPG. All signs point to a big Troy win here. 10* Troy. |
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10-09-21 | UTEP v. Southern Miss +2.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
9* Southern Miss (7:00 ET): Yes, I know that Southern Miss is down to its third string QB. Freshman Jake Lange made his first career start last week against Rice and threw three interceptions while also being sacked five times. That’s to be expected with a freshman, but what impressed me is that Lange did throw for 300+ yards. Unless there’s been some sort of “football renaissance” down in El Paso that I’m unaware of, I don’t understand why UTEP is now favored in this one (other than people are scared of a backup QB). I’m taking the points. UTEP is 4-1 SU. How shocking is that record? Well, from 2017-20, the Miners won just five games total! Three of them came last season, but two were against FCS opponents. Incredibly, coming into 2021, this program had just two FBS wins under HC Dana Dimel. They’ve already topped that number this season (with 3), but two were against the “New Mexico teams” (both of whom stink) and then last week the Miners needed a late TD to top Old Dominion at home. I really can’t see this team moving to 5-1 SU. Southern Miss has dominated this C-USA rivalry, winning five straight meetings and covering three of the last four. They’ve outgained UTEP in all 10 meetings as conference opponents, by an average of 188 YPG! UTEP hasn’t been within 120 yards in any of those 10 games. Also, the Miners are 0-9 SU their L9 C-USA road games, so I just can’t see why anyone would put this much faith in them. They had fewer first downs than ODU did last week. 9* Southern Miss |
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10-09-21 | Boise State +6 v. BYU | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 41 m | Show |
8* Boise State (3:30 ET): BYU is undefeated (5-0) and ranked #10 in the country. My own power rankings have far less regard for them as they’re not even in the top 50. So the Cougars are almost an “automatic fade” for me now as I believe they’ll drop a game sooner rather than later. Making things even more enticing is the fact that perhaps no team in the country is as banged up at QB as BYU is right now. Starter Jaren Hall (ribs) did not play last week and his backup Baylor Romney suffered a concussion against USF. Hall could return this week, but if not it will be freshman Jacob Conover making his first career start. Regardless of who ends up starting, I’m definitely taking the points in this one. In light of the BYU QB situation, I’m pretty shocked to see how this line has moved during the week. Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that Boise State just lost for the third time this year, 41-31 at home to Nevada as a 3.5-point favorite. But that was a case where the Broncos were an unfortunate -3 in turnovers. Their other two losses - to UCF and Oklahoma State - were by a combined six points. Note that BSU has had the 1st half lead in each of their three losses. I feel they are better than their 2-3 SU record. It was two weeks ago that I took them as road favorites going into face an unbeaten Utah State team. They won for me there 27-3. Boise State’s QB situation is not a concern as Hank Bachmeier threw for 388 yards and four touchdowns last week. Yes, he was responsible for two turnovers. But I still trust him more than whoever ends up under center for BYU. Injured ribs are a serious thing for a QB, so Hall isn’t going to be 100 percent. The freshman Conover didn’t look all that great last week. But above all else, the Broncos remember the 51-17 beatdown they were handed by BYU last year on the blue turf. That BYU team lost five players to the NFL, including QB Zach Wilson. Look for a much different story this time around. 8* Boise State |
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10-08-21 | Temple v. Cincinnati -28.5 | Top | 3-52 | Win | 100 | 53 h 11 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): An argument could be made that this is a letdown spot for #5 Cincinnati as they are coming off perhaps the biggest win in school history last week, a 24-13 triumph in South Bend over Notre Dame. But one could also argue that Temple is also due for a letdown as it is coming off a shocking 34-31 upset of Memphis as 11-point home dogs. I know that the spread is rather sizable in this one, but my power ratings say it should be more than FIVE touchdowns. I’ll go ahead and trust my numbers. The Bearcats not only must continue to win, but also win impressively if they are to have any shot at making the CFP. An unbeaten regular season is certainly a prerequisite for even being considered for one of the four spots. With all the chaos this year in College Football, Luke Fickell’s team has a shot. Going on the road and beating Indiana and Notre Dame was huge for the resume. Now it’s time to simply blow out a lesser opponent. The first two games of the Bearcats’ season were both 35-point wins (over Miami and Murray State) and that’s what I’m looking for here. Give Temple credit for pulling the upset last week, but they were down 17 to Memphis before storming back for a shocking second half comeback. Furthermore, in losses to Boston College and Rutgers, the Owls were outscored 89-17. They will give up a LOT of points this week as they’ve yet to face an offense anywhere close to the caliber of Cincinnati. The Bearcats have won their L3 Friday night home games by a total of 88 points. They continue to roll. 10* Cincinnati |
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10-08-21 | Braves +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 51 h 49 m | Show |
10* Run Line Atlanta (4:37 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play. The Braves may have won a weak NL East by just 6.5 games, but they were pretty clearly the best team in their division. Every other team had a negative run differential while Atlanta was +134. That’s a better run differential than Milwaukee (+115), for the record. It was the Braves’ superior run differential that caught my eye back in August when they first made their move to take over the division. Since August 2nd, the team is 36-18 overall. I like them +1.5 in Game 1 of the NLDS. Usually, a team covets having home field advantage. But in the case of the Brewers, I’m not so sure that will be the case. They were just 45-36 here at American Family Field during the regular season, compared to 50-31 on the road. They only average 4.3 rpg at home, the same number they allow. The Brew Crew and Braves have faced off a total of six times in 2021 and four of those have been won by the road team. Atlanta has been good on the road all year, going 46-35 while outscoring opponents by a full run per game. Milwaukee’s Corbin Burnes led the NL in ERA this season and has a 234-34 KW ratio. But, he just suffered his 1st loss since May with a poor effort against the Dodgers on Sunday. He lasted just two innings and gave up three runs. Burnes faced Atlanta one time in the regular season and allowed a season-high 5 ER in that one. The Braves’ Game 1 starter, Charlie Morton, is more than capable of matching Burnes here as he checks in with a 2.43 ERA and 0.861 WHIP his L7 starts. The Brewers did not finish the regular season well, losing four straight and five of six. Atlanta may be the better overall team here. 10* Run Line Atlanta |
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10-07-21 | Coastal Carolina -19 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-20 | Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
10* Coastal Carolina (7:30 ET): This line ought to be more than three touchdowns, so I’ll “follow” the early money here and lay the points with the Chanticleers. The defending Sun Belt Champs have looked awesome in recent weeks, defeating their last two opponents by a combined score of 112-9! Now UMass and LA Monroe are two of the worst FBS teams in the country. But so is this week’s opponent, Arkansas State. ASU has allowed 41+ points to every FBS opponent so far and 52+ in three of those four games. They are dead last in the FBS in yards per game allowed (563.8). Lay the points. In a short week, now is not the time where Arkansas State can get its many defensive issues fixed. The Chanticleers’ offense is potent, averaging 528 yards and 48.2 points per game. It is led by QB McCall, who is completing 80% of his passes while leading the nation in yards per pass attempt. The ASU defense just gave up 500+ yards RUSHING last week, so they are in for a world of hurt here. The only game so far where Coastal had any trouble was when they visited Buffalo in Week 3. They struggled due to an inability to stop the run, but ASU is NOT a team capable of replicating the kind of success Buffalo had running the football. Because they are always trailing, the Red Wolves have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season and average a rather pathetic 67 YPG over land (on just 2.8 YPC!). They like to throw, but the problem is Coastal is allowing just 130.8 pass YPG, third fewest in the country. This will get ugly. 10* Coastal Carolina |
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10-07-21 | Houston v. Tulane +6 | Top | 40-22 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
8* Tulane 1st Half (7:30 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. Houston comes in at 4-1 SU while Tulane is 1-4 SU. Somewhat predictably, the public is betting this one based on those WL records. But the records are a little misleading in the sense that Tulane has played - by far - the tougher schedule of the two teams. Already, the Green Wave have been asked to go to Oklahoma (game moved due to Hurricane Irma) and Ole Miss. In addition to facing those two P5 opponents, they’ve also had to take on two more pretty good teams, UAB and East Carolina. I’m seeing some value with the home dog, at least in the 1st half. Take the points. Houston had been favored in each of its first four games. Then came last week where the Cougars were three-point dogs at Tulsa. They could not have asked for a better start to the game. It was 21-0 early in the 2Q after Tulsa’s first four possessions resulted in two punts, a turnover on downs and an INT. Frankly, I thought the final score (45-10) was a little misleading and not really representative of where I’ve got those two teams in my power ratings. Houston’s other three wins were all against bad teams and it should be pointed out that two weeks ago against Navy, they were down 10 at halftime. Tulane could certainly point to a -4 turnover differential as to why it got blown out, 52-29, at East Carolina last week. It was the second straight game where the Green Wave turned it over four times and second straight outright loss as a favorite. Bad starts doomed them in both games. At home Thursday night, I do not see them falling into such an early hole. This is a team that only lost by five points at Oklahoma. They have a good QB (Michael Pratt) and are 10-2 ATS at home under HC Willie Fritz. With SMU, Cincinnati and UCF all looming on the schedule, the Green Wave desperately needs to win Thursday night. 8* Tulane 1st Half |
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10-07-21 | White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -175 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (4:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the White Sox +1.5. I feel that the White Sox’ 40-41 road record is a little misleading. They’ve actually outscored their opponents by a decent margin when playing away from home. So I think getting them with an additional run and a half in our “back pocket” is a good buy. I’ve got a lot of respect for the Astros, who did sweep the White Sox in their lone visit of 2021. But the AL West Champs have a losing record in day games. I also give the visitors the edge in starting pitching for Game 1. They’ll send Lance Lynn, an offseason acquisition from Texas, to the mound. Lynn had a Cy Young worthy season with 201 strikeouts in 31 starts. He posted a 2.65 ERA after the All-Star Break. Going back a bit further (to June 26th), Lynn has a 9-6 TSR his L15 starts. But in four of those six starts the White Sox lost, the final deficit was just one run. I’ll take that here. I’m not going to tell you that Houston’s Game 1 starter (Lance McCullers Jr) is bad. Because that would be a lie. McCullers was 5 for 5 in quality starts in September. But he still has a higher ERA/WHIP than Lynn over the course of the full season. The Astros were just 4-6 L10 games while the White Sox are 7-2 their L9. Chicago did lose its final regular season game (meaningless) but is 45-25 off a loss this year. 8* Chi White Sox +1.5 (RUN LINE) |
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10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox +1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 35 h 16 m | Show |
10* Boston Run Line (8:08 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking Boston +1.5. The Yankees won the final six regular season meetings vs. the Red Sox, all of those wins coming by two runs or greater. But it was the team’s WL record in games decided by two runs or LESS that got them this Wild Card opportunity as the Yanks outperformed their expected win total by six games in the regular season. Only Seattle, who was a ridiculous +15, was a bigger overachiever in that regard. I just can’t see the Yankees beating the Red Sox for a seventh straight time by two or more runs. Despite the Yanks winning the L6 head to head meetings, Boston still won the season series 10-9. The first seven meetings of 2021 were actually all won by the Red Sox. That’s why this winner-take-all game is taking place in Fenway Park, where the home team happens to average 5.8 runs per game. That was the highest scoring average by any team at home this year, even more than Colorado at Coors Field. The Red Sox lineup will also not be intimidated by Gerrit Cole, who will start Tuesday for the Yankees. Cole has a 4.91 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in four starts vs. Boston this season. He also really struggled over his L3 starts of the regular season, giving up 15 runs in 17 ⅔ IP, and has been a big money-loser overall (-12.35 units) in ‘21. Meanwhile, the Yankees are not that strong of an offensive club. They average only 4.4 rpg, second fewest among all playoff teams. Much will be made of Nathan Eovaldi’s 1-4 TSR vs. the Yankees this year, but he allowed 2 ER or less in five of those six starts. Eovaldi has a 3.64 ERA since 2016 against his former team. Boston finished the regular season with a better run differential than the Yankees, +80 to +42, and I think there’s some real value here on the better team playing at home. Boston will win, or lose by only one run, on Tuesday. 10* Boston +1.5 |
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10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
9* New England (8:20 ET): I know that Tampa Bay is a perfect 5-0 ATS off a loss with Tom Brady as their QB, but you are paying a premium because of that trend Sunday night. This isn’t “any other game” either. It’s Brady’s return to New England where he won six Super Bowls alongside HC Bill Belichick. Brady will become the NFL’s all-time passing leader at some point in this game, but I expect things to be closer than the oddsmakers think as Belichick is a remarkable 14-4 ATS as a home dog. Take the points. New England is just 1-2 SU, but outgained the opponents in both losses. Ironically, they were outgained themselves when they defeated the Jets 25-6 two weeks ago. Being +4 in turnovers in that win was huge, but then the “TO bug” bit them LW vs New Orleans as they were -3 in 28-13 game. Brady might be gone, but I still like this Pats’ defense as it is allowing just 318 YPG. The play that put last week’s game out of reach was pick-six, thrown by Brady’s replacement Mac Jones, early in the 2H. So the defense has yet to allow more 21 in any game. Tampa Bay’s defense has some work to do as the secondary is banged up. They’ve allowed at least 25 pts in every game and had few answers for the Rams last week in a 34-24 loss. The Bucs were a little fortunate to win in Week 1 (needed last second FG) and then the 48-25 final against Atlanta was misleading as that was a one-score game in the 4Q (they returned TWO interceptions for TDs). Given the magnitude of this SNF matchup, I believe the Bucs are WAY too “public” of a side. You know Belichick wants to win this game badly. 9* New England |
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10-03-21 | Steelers +6.5 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 43 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): Green Bay’s horrendous Week 1 effort against the Saints now seems like a distant memory as they are 2-1 following primetime victories over the Lions and 49ers. But lest we forget that the Pack trailed Detroit at the half and needed a last second FG to win in San Francisco last Sunday night. This line feels like a classic overreaction to recent results as GB’s 38-3 loss to New Orleans should not be forgotten. They are a public side that should be faded in this spot. I’m taking the points with Pittsburgh. The Steelers’ season does seem to be “heading in reverse” as it’s been the complete opposite of what we’ve seen from the Packers. Pittsburgh started out by going to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills 23-16 as 6.5 point underdogs. But they’ve followed that up with B2B outright losses as favorites, losing 26-17 to Las Vegas and 24-10 to Cincinnati. Both losses were at home. There are many offensive issues right now, but the defense is still good and hopes to get T.J. Watt back this week. This will only be the ninth time that Ben Roethlisberger is an underdog of six or more points. Pittsburgh is 13-3-1 ATS as a dog the L3+ seasons and has the NFL’s best ATS record in the month of October (7-1-1 during that time). The only team that the Packers have held below 28 points was the winless Lions, who scored 17 in the 1H against them. I think the Steelers’ D holds Rodgers below 30 points and will score enough here to cover the spread. 10* Pittsburgh |
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10-03-21 | Titans v. Jets +6.5 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Incredibly, the Jets are on the verge of starting 0-4 for a third consecutive season. It has been a rough start to the pro career of QB Zach Wilson, the #2 overall draft choice. The Jets’ offense has scored just 20 points in three games while getting held out of the end zone B2B weeks. They were shutout in Denver LW, 26-0, in what was their worst loss yet. But against all odds, I think they’re going to keep this one closer than expected. Take the points with the home dog. Tennessee usually doesn’t have a problem scoring. The Over is 22-6-1 in Ryan Tannehill starts. But this week Tannehill is going to be without BOTH of his starting receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown. Yes, he can still hand the ball to Derrick Henry. But this Jets’ defense isn’t bad at stopping the run. They allow just 3.8 YPC and know what’s coming here. The most points allowed by the Jets in any game so far was the 26 last week. As for the woeful Jets’ offense, I believe it has a chance to get on track here against a Titans’ defense that gave up 30+ points each of the first two weeks. The Jets are one of only three 0-3 ATS teams (KC, Washington), but considering how well underdogs are doing in 2021 (30-18 ATS with 21 outright wins), they are due to cover. First year HC Robert Saleh really needs a win. I’ll almost always gravitate towards a top 10 defense getting this many points at home. 8* NY Jets |
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10-02-21 | Auburn v. LSU -3 | Top | 24-19 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 32 m | Show |
8* LSU (9:00 ET): Auburn has already lost once as an underdog this season. That loss came at Penn State by a score of 28-20 two weeks ago. The Tigers probably should have also lost last week to Georgia State at Jordan-Hare, but a QB change in the second half propelled them to a 34-24 come from behind victory. That was a misleading final though as the Tigers got two non-offensive TDs in the second half, one a pick six in the final 30 seconds which came right after a 98-yard drive and the go-ahead score. Now they head to a place where they haven’t won in two decades. They’ve dropped 10 straight in Death Valley. With TJ Finley leading the comeback last week, he’s likely to at least split time with Bo Nix this week. Whomever is playing QB for Auburn must deal with a defense that leads the country with 20 sacks. It’s an interesting storyline with Finley having left LSU to play for Auburn. But this could quickly turn into a case of “don’t know what you got until it’s gone.” First year coach Bryan Harsin is dealing with a lot of issues right now as he just fired his WR coach. Throw in what figures to be a rowdy, late Saturday night crowd in Baton Rouge and this just looks like a really tough spot for the road team. Back in the opener, I faded LSU as they were playing at a UCLA team that already had a game under its belt. That turned out to be the correct move. But since then, these Tigers have really turned things around with three straight impressive wins, including at Mississippi State last week. While the final margin ended up being just three points, the Bayou Bengals were up by 18 in the 4Q. They don’t have any issues at QB as Max Johnson’s 15 TD passes are second most in the country. This is a big revenge spot for LSU after losing 48-11 LY in Jordan Hare. They are a much better team in 2021. Lay the points. 8* LSU |
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10-02-21 | Old Dominion +5.5 v. UTEP | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
10* Old Dominion (9:00 ET): ODU may seem like an odd team to go “all in” on this week, but the Monarchs are off a very misleading 35-34 home loss to Buffalo last week and I look for them to bounce back. They outgained the Bulls 433-297 LW in Norfolk, but it didn’t matter as they were behind 35-7 at halftime thanks to two non-offensive scores. They outscored UB 27-0 in the second half but then in the cruelest of fates missed the potential game-tying XP with just 19 seconds left. At least they covered as 13-point underdogs. I’m taking the points this week. It’s not just last week’s misleading final that has led me to ODU this week. How about UTEP being favored? Now the Miners did cover as 9.5-point road chalk in Week 1, but that was against the worst FBS team in the country, New Mexico State (yes, even worse than UConn). UTEP is now 3-1 SU after upsetting New Mexico 20-13 last week here in El Paso. The Miners also pitched a 2H shutout, outscoring the Lobos 17-0 to erase what was a 13-3 halftime deficit. UTEP now has the same number of wins over FBS teams this year (2) as they did the previous FOUR SEASONS COMBINED! This is a matchup of the two teams predicted to finish last in the respective C-USA divisions. ODU does not have a win over FBS team since 2018 as they were one of three teams that elected to skip the 2020 season. This is their best shot at one since a one-point loss to UTSA late in the ‘19 season. The UTEP defense is allowing only a 19% conversion rate on third down, which is a totally unsustainable number, so look for some big plays out of the ODU run game (two backs averaging 6.0 YPC) and the dog to leave with the cash. 10* Old Dominion |
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10-02-21 | Central Florida -16 v. Navy | Top | 30-34 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 53 m | Show |
9* Central Florida (3:30 ET): The Golden Knights have had two weeks to stew over a 42-35 loss to Louisville, a game that was decided on a 66-yard “pick-six” in the closing seconds. I look for them to come out and hammer a Navy team that is rather “lost at sea” at this point. The Midshipmen are 0-3 and while they looked somewhat better in last week’s 28-20 loss at Houston, this simply is not the same kind of team we’re used to seeing under HC Ken Niumatalolo. Lay the points with the rested visitor. Central Florida’s season began by hosting Boise State. Though they actually fell behind 21-0 early in that game, they absolutely deserved to come from behind and win 36-31 as they statistically dominated the Broncos in that one. It was a 573-283 edge in total yards and would have been a blowout had it not been for an early 100 yard INT return for TD by Boise. UCF then crushed FCS Bethune-Cookman as you’d expect, putting up 63 points for 1st year HC Gus Malzahn. The loss two weeks ago doesn’t at all dim my view that this is the top challenger to Cincinnati in the AAC this year. Meanwhile, Navy now finds itself towards the bottom of the conference. They could put up only 10 combined points in the first two games and an embarrassing 68 total yards in a 23-3 home loss to Air Force. The Middies did lead at the half LW, but are now facing an opponent that has easily won the two previous matchups. The extra week to prepare for the Navy triple option is huge for the UCF defense. Even with a backup QB making his first career start, the Golden Knights should roll in this one. 9* Central Florida |
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10-02-21 | Eastern Michigan +2.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -100 | 45 h 54 m | Show |
9* Eastern Michigan (2:30 ET): Chris Creighton, now in his eighth year at EMU, has done a great job at turning around this once-sorry program. He is now gunning for his second 4-1 SU start in six years. Prior to his arrival in Ypsilanti, the Eagles had started 4-1 just twice in 28 years! Their only loss here in 2021 came to a Wisconsin team that I still think is much better than its record. All three wins have come against bad teams, but at least they’ve been blowouts; all three coming by 14 points or greater. A clear sign of the turnaround engineered here by Creighton is the fact his team has beaten Northern Illinois each of the last two seasons. Prior to those two wins, EMU had lost 11 straight to NIU and 19 of 21. They will now be going for their first three-game win streak in the series since 1958! Conversely, Northern Illinois has had just three losing seasons in 13 years, but two of those were 2019 and 2020. The Huskies didn’t even win a game LY (0-6) and that included a 41-33 loss as six-point road underdog to EMU. The year before saw the Eagles come here to DeKalb and win 45-17 as five-point dogs. Northern Illinois may be off to a 2-2 start this year, but the defense has surrendered 50+ points in both losses and one of the wins (22-21 upset over Ga Tech in the opener) was very misleading. They were outgained in that victory, then were very lucky to earn a push here at home vs. Wyoming the following week as they were down by as many as 26 in that game. After getting crushed 63-10 by Michigan, the Huskies did win last week, but that was against FCS Maine. EMU is 23-8 ATS L31 road games, including 20-6-1 as a dog. 9* Eastern Michigan |
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10-02-21 | Michigan v. Wisconsin -1.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 29 m | Show |
8* Wisconsin (12:00 ET): So we’ve got Michigan, 4-0 SU and ranked #14 in the country, GETTING points from unranked 1-2 Wisconsin. Now the game is in Madison (more on that later), but this line probably is surprising to some. Not to me. Michigan was outgained 352-275 last week by Rutgers and did next to nothing offensively in the second half. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is off a very misleading 41-13 loss to Notre Dame last week where they actually OUTGAINED the Irish. Believe it or not, we’re getting a GREAT value here on the Badgers at home. Lay the points. This is precisely the kind of game Jim Harbaugh always seems to lose. He is 0-11 SU as underdog since returning to his alma mater. Since 2015, Michigan is the ONLY team in the FBS not to have a single outright win as a dog. Madison has also been a “house of horrors” for past Wolverines teams. They have not won here since 2001, dropping five in a row including four straight by double digits. Michigan’s inability to run the ball last week in the 2H vs. Rutgers, or even convert a single third down, seems like it will be a major issue here as they face the nation’s top rush defense. Wisconsin has allowed only 69 rushing yards total in three games! Then there’s this tidbit: There have been nine unranked teams favored vs. a top-15 opponent since 2016. Seven of the nine won, including WVU (who I had) over Va Tech two weeks ago. This shapes up to be a CLASSIC anti-public bet. The respective turnover differentials of the two teams, Wisconsin is -7 while Michigan has yet to turn it over even once, is bound to even out. The Badgers had THREE non-offensive TD’s go against them in the 4Q LW at Soldier Field. Look for it to be their defense making the big plays this week as they win at home. 8* Wisconsin |
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09-30-21 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Bengals | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (8:20 ET): Urban Meyer’s Jaguars are 0-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. Not even the longest TD in NFL history, a 109-yard return of a missed FG, could get the Jags inside the number against the Cardinals last week. It’s now 18 straight losses for the franchise, a streak that obviously predates Meyer’s tenure here, and the last six have all been by 10+ points. But I believe the Jags are due to keep ONE close. I see that happening this Thursday night against a Bengals team unaccustomed to the role of favorites. Cincinnati is 2-1 but has not been favored in a single game so far. Even Jacksonville was favored once, back in Week 1. In fact, the Bengals have only been favored three times in the last three seasons and they lost two of the games outright! This season’s two wins have come against Minnesota and Pittsburgh, but they were outgained in both games and needed OT to get by the Vikings. The offense has failed to even gain 300 total yards in each of the L2 games. They also lost to the Bears in Week 2. What I’m saying here is that the Bengals should not be trusted as this large of a favorite. Especially on a short week. One would have to go back to the “height” of the Andy Dalton/Marvin Lewis era to find the last time a Bengals team was laying more than seven points at the betting window. The lookahead line was much shorter and I’m just not ready to buy into Cincy yet. Trevor Lawrence just needs to cut down on the interceptions and the Jags will at least keep it close. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-26-21 | Jets +10.5 v. Broncos | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -112 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (4:05 ET): The Jets are not being given much of a chance in this game, and for good reason, but make note of the fact they did outgained New England pretty significantly last week (336-260) despite losing on the scoreboard 25-6. Growing pains were obviously expected here with a rookie coach (Robert Saleh) and QB (Zach Wilson), but the team does need to show SOMETHING this week in Denver. It’s a big spread and I feel comfortable taking the points against an opponent unaccustomed to being this large of a favorite. Denver was the only team in the league not to be favored a single time in 2020. This year has seen them favored on the road each of the first two games and now laying double digits in the home opener. How rare is this? It’s the first time the Broncos have been double digit favorites since a 2017 game vs. the Giants that they lost outright by 13 points! QB Teddy Bridgewater has an outstanding career ATS mark (37-15-1) but has NEVER been a double digit favorite before. The largest spread he’s faced previous to this one was laying eight points against Carolina in 2018 when he was with the Saints. He lost that game outright. The biggest problem for the Jets last week was four turnovers. That’s how they lost by 19 despite holding an edge in total yards. In what promises to be a low-scoring game, I think grabbing the points is prudent. Denver has not started 3-0 since 2016. They’ve only averaged 25 points the first two games and despite two double digit wins, this isn’t a team that’s normally going to win big. 0-2 ATS teams have covered at a 60% rate in Week 3 over the last decade. 10* NY Jets |
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09-26-21 | Dolphins +4 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
8* Miami (4:05 ET): The fact there’s been no real line movement since it was announced that Jacoby Brissett would be starting in place of the injured Tua Tagovailoa says a lot. Surprisingly, the line has even come down a bit. I thought the opening number was a bit of an overreaction to Las Vegas’ 2-0 start, which has seen them upset the Ravens and Steelers. This game was listed as pick ‘em on the lookahead line. Miami is a perfect 6-0 ATS off its L6 SU losses and 10-1 ATS after giving up 30+ points. Take the points. I really don’t think that the dropoff from Tua to Brissett is that severe. Sure, the Dolphins lost 35-0 last week at home to Buffalo. But Brissett was obviously not expecting to play. Now he gets a full week of practice to face a Raiders’ defense that gave up the second most touchdowns in the entire league last year and over 30 PPG. Vegas is a little lucky to be 2-0 as they beat Baltimore in OT and then Pittsburgh suffered multiple key injuries on defense. This is the first time the Raiders have been favored in 2021. They are just 3-7 ATS L10 as chalk with four outright losses. Miami is 9-4 ATS as a road underdog under Brian Flores. They have also won 10 of the last 12 meetings vs. the Raiders, including seven of the last eight. Last year, they pulled out a last second 26-25 win to officially eliminate Vegas from playoff contention. I’m just very skeptical of this Raiders team and it’s hard for me to see them moving to 3-0. The Dolphins’ defense will keep them in this game. 8* Miami |
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09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7 v. Bills | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): The Football Team is 0-2 ATS as a favorite so far, but let’s try them as a dog this week. They did prevail on the field last Thursday, getting a gift from the inept Giants, who were offsides on the first game-winning FG attempt. After missing that first attempt, Washington kicker Dustin Hopkins then made the G-Men pay on his second try, putting the 43-yarder through the uprights and giving Washington a 30-29 win. I was impressed with the play of QB Taylor Heinicke, who completed 34 of 46 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start in place of the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick. This will be the Bills’ second straight week facing a backup QB. But I think it’s pretty obvious that Heinicke is better than Jacoby Brissett, who was called into emergency duty last week (Tua injured) as Buffalo blitzed Miami 35-0. Remember that Heinicke started last season’s playoff game for Washington and threw for 300+ yards against eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay. The Football Team has also had a few extra days to prepare for this game compared to the Bills. That will help Heinicke. The “mini-bye” should also help a Washington defense that’s gotten off to a surprisingly slow start. This was one of the best defenses in the league a year ago. I know Buffalo scored five touchdowns last week, but three of those drives were 52 yards or shorter. Josh Allen is completing just 56% of his passes so far and is 27th in yards. The Bills’ offensive line was overwhelmed against the Steelers and the Football Team is capable of doing the same. Washington is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog, so this role suits them well. They’ve won three of those five games outright. Take the points. 8* Washington |
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09-26-21 | Cardinals v. Jaguars +8 | Top | 31-19 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer is looking for answers right now as he’s off to an 0-2 start in his professional head coaching career. Jacksonville has lost 17 games in a row going back to last season, the last six all coming by double digits. Now virtually all of that predates Meyer’s tenure here. However, the legendary college coach can certainly ill-afford a third straight DD loss. Predictably, the public is all over the other side (Arizona) in this matchup but I’m seeing some value with the home dog getting more than a touchdown. Take the points. I understand that taking Jacksonville right now may cause you to hold your nose. But the idea of Arizona laying this many points on the road should bolster your confidence. It’s extremely rare to find the Cardinals as this size of a road favorite. Going all the way back to 1993, it’s happened only TWO times! Situationally, it’s not a great spot for the Cards either as this is their second trip to the Southeast in the first three weeks and they’ve got a big division road game next week at the Rams. There’s no denying how good Kyler Murray has looked in the first two games, but the Cardinals were very lucky to defeat Minnesota 34-33 last week. The Vikings missed a “chip shot” field goal on the final play of the game to seal the deal. I had the Vikes plus the points (they obviously covered) as Arizona dropped to 3-10 ATS its L13 games as a favorite in any setting. The Jags fall into several key angles that are 60% ATS or better, long term. 8* Jacksonville |
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09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic +4.5 v. Air Force | Top | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
10* Florida Atlantic (8:00 ET): I’m a bit stunned at this line as my power ratings say Florida Atlantic should be favored. So there’s no question I’m taking the points here. The line is even more enticing when you consider that the Owls are also on a 6-2 ATS run as underdogs and will be facing a defense that just gave up 628 total yards (and 49 points) last week. After starting 5-1 SU in Willie Taggart’s first season here in Boca Raton, FAU hit a bit of a snag, losing its final three games last year (including the bowl) and to Florida in the 2021 season opener (understandable). But off B2B convincing wins, they look to have turned a corner. Air Force is also 2-1, but just lost outright as nine-point favorites to Utah State last week. It was a 49-45 shootout that saw the Falcons run the ball better than they did in either of the first two games (437 yards) but the defensive “effort” simply wasn’t there. Of the 628 total yards allowed, 448 were through the air. Now they’ve got to deal with FAU QB N’Kosi Perry, who comes in averaging 290.3 YPG with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions. These teams have met once before (2018) and FAU gained 525 yards in a 33-28 win. All signs point to another big offensive effort, so again - why WOULDN’T you take the points? FAU had seven games either cancelled or postponed because of COVID-19 last year. On the bright side, 30 of the 34 players who started a game last season returned for Taggart, who finally was able to get some Spring practices in. So this is a very experienced group set to hit the road, much more experienced than Air Force. FAU did cover against Florida and would have covered in ‘18 vs. Air Force if not for a blocked punt in the final minute. Seeing as how Air Force twice blew an 11-point lead last week (including in the 4Q), I don’t see how anyone can expect them to win by any real margin. 10* Florida Atlantic |
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09-25-21 | Kentucky v. South Carolina +5.5 | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 7 m | Show |
9* South Carolina (7:00 ET): This is yet another matchup on the Saturday card where I feel the wrong team is favored. Kentucky is 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘18) but South Carolina is the more important (in our world) 3-0 ATS. The Gamecocks have lost a game, last week, but that was to a Georgia team that could be the best in the country right now. Two of UK’s wins have been close, including last week’s over FCS UT-Chattanooga, and all of them were in Lexington.The Wildcats only won by five (28-23) last week and didn’t even score enough points to cover the massive 31-point spread. Take the points here. Not much is being expected from South Carolina in Shane Beamer’s first year at the helm. The team was 2-8 SU in 2020. But Beamer (Frank’s son) didn’t inherit a bare cupboard. Opening with confidence-building victories over Eastern Illinois and East Carolina, the latter on the road, were huge even though the Georgia game didn’t work out last week. The Gamecocks still covered vs. Georgia to move to 3-0 ATS on the year. This is maybe Beamer’s best shot at a SEC win this season, so expect a solid performance. Luke Doty, who was originally going to be the team’s first string QB before injuring his foot over the summer, is back and now ready to make his first start. So that’s another boost. While this season is Beamer’s first foray into SEC football as a head coach, his players know the opponent well and desperately want to beat them. The Gamecocks are just 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS the L8 years vs. Kentucky and the current senior class would have just one win against them, the last time they hosted back in 2019. That was a 24-7 win and cover as 3.5-point favorites. This Wildcats’ offense has turned the ball over far too much this season (eight times) and the defense is letting opponents convert at 45% on third down. South Carolina isn’t as bad as many in the SEC think and I give them a great shot at the outright upset here. 9* South Carolina |
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09-25-21 | UCLA -4 v. Stanford | Top | 35-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 4 m | Show |
9* UCLA (6:00 ET): The bloom is off the Rose (Bowl) so to speak as UCLA lost for the first time last week, a 40-37 shootout with Fresno State. But one upset loss should not cause you to disregard what this team has been doing in Chip Kelly’s third season in Westwood. The Bruins got as high as #13 in rankings, mostly on the strength of their 38-27 upset of LSU. I took them in that game and in the opener when they absolutely crushed Hawaii 44-10. I really like the improvement I’ve seen thus far out of Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who currently leads all Pac 12 QB’s with seven touchdown passes. Meanwhile, I also won with Stanford last week as they went to Vanderbilt and won 41-23 as 12.5-point favorites. That was a nice follow-up for them after their shocking upset of Southern Cal the week prior, 42-28 as 17-point dogs (which led to USC firing Clay Helton). The change at QB to Tanner McKee, following a season-opening loss to Kansas State, seems to have been a game-changer. But you should note that the Cardinal were outgained by the Trojans in that upset win and then allowed nearly 400 yards to a not good Vandy team last week. They aren’t playing Vandy again this week. This will be Stanford’s 1st game in Palo Alto since Week 2 of last season. It’s not like they have some great homefield advantage though. They are just 1-5 ATS L6 home games. This is a massive revenge spot for UCLA, who is just 1-12 SU and 2-13 ATS the L15 meetings with the Cardinal. But the one win was the last time they came to Stanford Stadium, 34-16 as a four-point dog. It was a 49-48 loss LY in 2OT as Thompson-Robinson got hurt. If not for a last-second UCLA loss last week, you have to think this line would be a lot higher. In a battle of teams I’m a combined 3-0 ATS with this season, I’ll lay the points. 9* UCLA |
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09-25-21 | Boise State -9 v. Utah State | Top | 27-3 | Win | 100 | 41 h 58 m | Show |
8* Boise State (12:00 ET): It says a lot that a 1-2 team would be favored over a 3-0 team. Especially when the 1-2 team is a nine-point favorite on the road! Boise State’s two losses so far have been by a total of six points and were to UCF and Oklahoma State, two very competent programs. Meanwhile, Utah State has had to rally from a double digit deficit in all three games. Their two wins over FBS teams (Washington State, Air Force) were by a combined seven points and in each instance the Aggies battled back from a double digit 4Q deficit. So they very well could also be 1-2 heading into the Mountain West opener against a team they have struggled with in the past. Actually, to say USU has “struggled” in the past vs. Boise State would be putting it mildly. The Aggies are 1-17 SU/4-14 ATS the previous 18 head to head meetings. The lone SU victory took place here in Logan back in 2015. Utah State has not fared well in conference openers recently, going 0-4-1 ATS. I am shocked that they’ve opened this season 3-0 SU (1st time since ‘78) considering they won just one game a year ago and averaged only 15.5 PPG. They only led for the final 3:54 against Air Force last week and that was after trailing most of the way at Wazzu. Boise State, like Utah State, has a first year coach leading the ship. The Broncos blew a 21-0 lead in the opener vs. UCF and then a 13-point lead vs. Oklahoma State. Really, you could make the case that Boise is the team that “should” be 3-0 while USU “should” be 1-2. It was 42-13 on the blue turf when these teams met last year and eight of the last nine wins in the series have been by double digits. The Utah State defense is very questionable right now as it has given up over 1,000 yards the last two weeks. Air Force gained 437 on the ground alone and even FCS North Dakota went for 442 total. Considering the history of this rivalry - and the fact USU has been down by DD in every game so far - I’ll gladly lay the points. 8* Boise State |
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09-25-21 | Missouri v. Boston College +1.5 | Top | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 41 h 57 m | Show |
8* Boston College (12:00 ET): In its first game w/o starting QB Phil Jurkovic (could be out the rest of the season), Boston College put up 28 points last week even with backup Denis Grosel completing only 5 of 13 passes for 34 yards. The running game - which saw three different backs find the endzone - was ultra-effective in going for 187 yards on 35 carries. Of course, it also helps to have a defense which is sixth nationally, allowing only 10.3 PPG. It’s because of that defense and this game being in Chestnut Hill that I feel we have a “false favorite” on our hands with Missouri. Take the points in this one. Boston College is looking to complete the non-conference portion of its schedule a perfect 4-0 straight up. It’s not been a challenging schedule to this point as the team has been favored by double digits in every game and twice by 40 or more. But the program has a solid reputation as an underdog, pulling 13 outright upsets the last five seasons and going 5-1 ATS its last six times in the role. But that’s only half the equation here. You’ve also got the fact that Missouri has been a lousy road team through the years, going 7-21 ATS L28 outside of Columbia. That includes 1-6 when laying points, which they are here. The Tigers are 0-3 ATS overall in 2021 including a 35-28 outright loss as a dog at Kentucky (7th straight year losing the SEC opener). The Eagles have a massive edge on the defensive side of the ball in this game. While they’ve allowed just 31 points in three games (28 of those against UMass), Mizzou’s defense is last among SEC teams in giving up 455.7 YPG. A lot of that has to do with the loss to UK, however the Tigers did give up nearly 300 yards rushing to SE Missouri State, a FCS school. When Grosel filled-in against UMass, he completed 11 of 14 passes for 199 yards. So look for him to put up better numbers than last week. I agree with my power ratings that BC should be favored. 8* Boston College |
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09-24-21 | Wake Forest v. Virginia -4 | Top | 37-17 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 31 m | Show |
10* Virginia (7:00 ET): The Hoos are off their first loss of the season, 59-39 to a North Carolina team that is still well regarded despite its season opening loss (at Va Tech). The good news for UVA is that they are NOT playing UNC this week. It’s a matchup with Wake Forest instead. The Demon Deacons may come in undefeated (3-0 SU) and 6-0 ATS the L6 meetings but it’s not easy to win in Charlottesville where the home team is 19-2 SU since the start of the ‘18 season. The Cavaliers have covered five straight as home favorites and I think they’ll make it six in a row Friday night on ESPN2. Lay the points. Wake Forest is just 2-7-1 ATS its L10 road games and this will be their first time leaving Winston-Salem this season. It’s not exactly been an impressive run of opponents they’ve faced to this point, beating William & Mary (FCS), Old Dominion and Florida State. That trio has a combined zero wins over FBS teams in 2021. The Demon Deacons were outgained by 55 YPG in ACC play last season and really benefited from SIX Florida State turnovers last week. It’s never good to lose 59-39 (like Virginia did last week). But at least they got to face an elite offense. WF has yet to face a good offense, let alone one on par with Virginia. The Cavaliers put up 574 yards of total offense last week, which would normally lead me to ask “can they possibly match that?” But in their case, they’ve averaged 558.3 YPG through three weeks and been very consistent in doing so. QB Brennan Armstrong is #2 in the country in passing yards right now. The last time Virginia played at home, they crushed Illinois 42-14 as 10.5-point chalk. This is a big-time revenge game considering they’ve lost four straight times to Wake (1st time ever) and were favored in three of those games. No upset this time. 10* Virginia |