15* Stanford/Arizona Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford +10.5 

The Arizona Wildcats are a team I really want to fade right now.  I did so with success by fading them at Oregon last time out, and I’ll do so again tonight as they are way overvalued as 10.5-point home favorites over the Stanford Cardinal. 

The reason to fade the Wildcats is all the distractions surrounding head coach Sean Miller and the $100,000 payment that was made to star forward DeAndre Ayton (19.9 ppg, 11.2 rpg).  That’s a lot for a freshman to handle.  The Wildcats are also playing without their best scorer in Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg), who tested positive for a banned substance and has been ruled ineligible for now. 

Stanford has been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  The Cardinal are 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS in conference play.  They will certainly be wanting revenge from a 71-73 home loss as 6-point underdogs to the Wildcats back on January 20th in their first meeting this season. 

Arizona is 1-7 ATS after having won three of their last four games this season.  Stanford is 30-15 ATS in its last 45 road games off a win by 6 points or less.  The Cardinal are 9-1 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams who make 37% or better after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  Arizona is 1-7 ATS versus good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game this year.  The Cardinal are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Arizona is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight home games.  The Wildcats are 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Stanford Thursday. 

15* Virginia/Louisville ACC ANNIHILATOR on Louisville +4 

Louisville could really use a win over Virginia to get on the right side of the bubble.  The Cardinals are currently on the ‘last four in’ line according to Joe Lunardi, so they have no room to spare.  A win over the top team in the ACC would do them wonders tonight.   

Not only will they be motivated to punch their tickets to the big dance, they’ll also be motivated because it’s Senior Night and they want to send their seniors out with a memorable victory in their final home game.  The Cardinals also want revenge from a tough 64-74 loss at Virginia as 10.5-point dogs in their first meeting this season on January 31st.  They played them tough four 40 minutes and will certainly do the same at home tonight. 

I really question Virginia’s motivation over these final two games of the regular season.  The Cavaliers already have the ACC title locked up with their 15-1 record.  Even if they were to lose their final two games, they would still be a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament because everyone is talking about how they are the only sure thing to get a 1-seed.  I doubt they’ll be putting their best foot forward here. 

Louisville is 14-4 at home this season and winning by 12.6 points per game on average.  Three of their four home losses have come by 5 points or less, so they are really close to being 17-1 at home.  They have one of the better home-court advantages in the country and it will certainly be a hostile crowd here on Senior Night with the No. 1 team in the country visiting the KFC Yum Center.  Take Louisville Thursday. 

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Clemson -3 

The Clemson Tigers have many reasons to be motivated for a win today at home against the Florida State Seminoles.  For starters, it’s Senior Night as this will be their final home game.  Look for them to put forth a huge effort tonight to get the win and cover. 

Secondly, Clemson lost 79-81 at Florida State in overtime on February 14th exactly two weeks ago today.  So, they’ll want revenge from that defeat.  Also, the Tigers are looking to get a double-bye in the ACC Tournament.  They are currently tied for 4th place with NC State at 10-6, but they own the tiebreaker so they control their own destiny.  Win out and they will get that double-bye. 

Clemson is 14-1 SU & 9-3 ATS at home this season.  The Tigers are winning by 14.9 points per game on average on their home floor.  Their only loss came to Duke.  Clemson is also 14-6 SU & 15-5 ATS in its last 20 home meetings with Florida State. 

The Seminoles are not playing well at all right now.  They are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost their last two road games in blowout fashion by 15 at Notre Dame and by 20 at NC State.  They are just 4-6 in true road games this season. 

It’s worth nothing that Shelton Mitchell (11.9 ppg, 3.8 apg) suffered a concussion against Florida State in their previous meeting.  He missed their next two games against Duke and VA Tech, and they went 0-3 in that three-game stretch without him.  But Mitchell returned to score 14 points against Georgia Tech last time out.  They are 21-4 with him fully healthy, and 0-3 when he doesn’t play the full game. 

Clemson is 8-2 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a win.  Plays against road teams as a dog or PK (Florida State) in a game involving two good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game, after allowing 75 points or more in three straight games are 71-32 (68.9%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Clemson Wednesday. 

15* Villanova/Seton Hall Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +6.5 

The Seton Hall Pirates were getting dangerously close to the bubble with their four-game losing streak to start the month of February.  But this veteran squad has shown their resiliency, going 3-0 in their last three games with a home win over DePaul, and impressive upset road wins at Providence and at St. John’s. 

Now the Pirates are locked in and ready to give Villanova a run for its money tonight.  Seton Hall has gone 13-2 at home this season while winning by 12.6 points per game on average.  And now they get one of their best players in Desi Rodriquez (18.1 ppg, 5.0 rpg) back from an ankle injury just in time to face the Wildcats. 

Villanova has certainly proven vulnerable in recent games.  They are just 3-3 SU and 3-3 ATS in their last six games overall.  They were upset at home by St. John’s 75-79 as 16-point favorites, lost 71-76 at Providence as 9.5-point favorites, and lost 83-89 at Creighton as 7.5-point favorites.  There’s no question the Pirates are capable of upsetting them as well, let alone staying within this lofty 6.5-point spread. 

Seton Hall is 24-11 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons.  The Pirates are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.  The Wildcats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven trips to Seton Hall.  Roll with Seton Hall Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Kentucky -8.5

In typical John Calipari fashion at Kentucky, this team is getting better as the season moves along.  It’s easy to see why with the Wildcats.  They are always loaded with freshmen and it takes time for them to learn.  It is also a testament to how underrated a coach Calipari is. 

Indeed, the Wildcats have played some of their best basketball of the season over the last few weeks.  They have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS while beating Alabama 81-71 as 4.5-point home favorites, Arkansas 87-72 as 5-point road dogs and Missouri 87-66 as 5-point home favorites. 

Kentucky is 22-4 against Ole Miss since 1997, including 10-1 in all home meetings during that stretch.  This Ole Miss team is a mess as Andy Kennedy stepped down as head coach a few weeks ago.  The Rebels have gone 1-8 SU & 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are clearly just ready for their season to be over. 

Ole Miss is 0-7 ATS in Wednesday games over the last two seasons.  The Rebels are 4-12 ATS after playing a home game this season.  Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games this year, getting outscored by 12.7 points per game.  The Rebels have lost four of their last five road games by double-digits.  Ole Miss is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rebels are 2-13 ATS vs. teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Take Kentucky Wednesday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Bonaventure -2 

St. Bonaventure is currently a bubble team to make the NCAA Tournament.  Win out and they are likely in.  They have put themselves in this position by winning 10 straight games to get to 22-6 on the season. 

Their last loss came on the road at Davidson 73-83 back on January 19th.  So they’ll be out for revenge in the rematch at home this time around.  They’ll also be motivated to win on Senior Night with this tremendous class of seniors.  Not to mention a berth in the big dance is likely at stake tonight. 

The Bonnies are 12-1 at home this season and outscoring their opponents by 14.2 points per game.  The Wildcats are just 7-9 in all road games this year.  They should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers tonight. 

Davidson doesn’t have a chance to make the NCAA Tournament unless they win the conference tournament.  In a battle between two evenly matched teams, I’ll take the more motivated square at home tonight at an excellent value as only 2-point favorites.  Bet St. Bonaventure Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Mississippi State -1.5 

The Mississippi State Bulldogs have been one of the most underrated teams in the SEC this season.  There were little expectations coming in, but now sitting at 21-8 and 9-7 within the conference, they have played themselves into the ‘first four out’ line according to Joe Lunardi. 

Obviously, the Bulldogs are going to be highly motivated for a win over Tennessee that would likely get them in the tournament.  They will also be motivated for Senior Night as this is their final home game.  And boy have they been good at home, going 18-1 this season with their only loss coming to the best team in the SEC in Auburn. 

Tennessee has lost two of its last three road games with a 50-78 loss at Alabama and a 62-73 loss at Georgia.  The Vols’ only win came 73-65 at Ole Miss, a team that has basically quit since Andy Kennedy resigned.  The Vols are safely in the tournament and don’t need this win nearly as much as the Bulldogs. 

Mississippi State is 13-4 ATS in home games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  Mississippi State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Take Mississippi State Tuesday. 

15* Duke/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +6 

The Virginia Tech Hokies are currently among the ‘last four byes’ according to Joe Lunardi.  They are clearly a bubble team and could really use a signature win here of Duke to punch their ticket to the big dance.  That’s especially the case with a tough road game at Miami coming in their season finale Saturday. 

So it’s clear the Hokies will be highly motivated for a victory tonight for their NCAA Tournament chances.  They will also be motivated because it’s Senior Day and these seniors have really helped turn around this program under Buzz Williams.  They also want to avenge a 52-74 loss at Duke in their first meeting this season. 

I certainly think the Blue Devils are starting to be overvalued after going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  And they could be looking ahead to their huge showdown Saturday with their biggest rivals in the UNC Tar Heels at home.  Plus they are dealing with the distractions of being named in the FBI probe. 

Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing its 2nd game in 3 days over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 8-1 ATS in their last nine Monday games.  The Hokies are 27-12-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.  The home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings, including an 89-75 upset win over Duke at home last year for the Hokies.  Take Virginia Tech Monday. 

25* Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Nebraska PK 

The Nebraska Cornhuskers have been grossly undervalued all season.  So it’s no surprise that they are once again a pick ‘em at home against Penn State today when they should be laying 5-6 points.  We’ll take advantage and back them on Senior Day in what is a huge game for them to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Despite going 21-9 this season and 12-5 in Big Ten play, which has them in fourth place, the Huskers are actually one of the first teams out according to Joe Lunardi.  He still thinks they have work to do, and they should be motivated by it. 

The Huskers have gone a ridiculous 17-2 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  They have been an extremely tough at out home, going 15-1 SU & 12-2 ATS at home this year with their only loss coming to Kansas by a single point 72-73.  What more does this team have to do to earn some respect? 

Nebraska is a perfect 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five home meetings with Penn State.  The Huskers will also be motivated for revenge from a 74-76 loss at Penn State on January 12th in their first meeting this season.  Nebraska is 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a winning % from 60% to 80% this season.  Bet Nebraska Sunday. 

15* Michigan State/Wisconsin CBS Early ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin +8 

The Michigan State Spartans need a win Sunday to avoid sharing the Big Ten title with Purdue and Ohio State.  But that is clearly priced into the line as they are whopping 8-point road favorites at Wisconsin.  I think the value is with the home underdog Badgers because they aren’t going to make it easy for the Spartans. 

Wisconsin comes in playing its best basketball of the season.  The Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  They are 4-1 SU in their last five games with upset road wins at Illinois (78-69) and Northwestern (70-64), as well as home wins over Purdue (57-53) as 11-point dogs and Minnesota (73-63). 

The Badgers would love nothing more than to spoil Michigan State’s Big Ten title hopes, and they’ll also be motivated for Senior Day.  They want revenge from a 61-76 loss at Michigan State as 17-point underdogs in their first meeting this season as well. 

Michigan State is 1-8 ATS in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival over the last two seasons.  Wisconsin is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage of greater than 80% over the last two seasons.  It is actually winning these games by 15.7 points per game on average.  Roll with Wisconsin Sunday. 

20* Arizona/Oregon ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Oregon -2 

The Arizona Wildcats are in a tough spot here.  They were already without leading scorer Alonzo Trier (19.6 ppg) due to testing positive for a banned substance recently.  Now it came out on Friday that Sean Miller was caught talking a $100,000 payment to star freshman Deandre Ayton.  He is surely to lose his job, and sanctions will come down.  This is a huge distraction for the Wildcats right now. 

Meanwhile, Oregon is locked in and focused.  The Ducks currently sit at 18-10 on the season and are a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament.  They picked up a huge win against Arizona State on Thursday at home, and now another win over Arizona would go a long way in getting them into the tournament. 

With the way the Ducks are playing at home of late, they should have no problem covering this small 2-point spread.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington, a 27-point win over Washington State and a 7-point win over Arizona State.  Arizona needed overtime to beat Oregon State on the road Thursday, and now they will be tired on top of the distractions. 

Oregon is 12-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  The Ducks are 8-1 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 75 points or more over the last three years.  The Wildcats are 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Ducks are 43-21 ATS in their last 64 Pac-12 games.  The Ducks are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Oregon Saturday. 

15* WCC PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco -3.5 

This is an awful spot for the San Diego Toreros.  They just gave Gonzaga all they could handle in a 72-77 home loss.  Now they will clearly suffer a hangover after falling just short against the WCC champs.  They won’t bring the kind of effort it’s going to take to match San Francisco’s intensity Saturday. 

Meanwhile, the Dons want revenge from a 63-73 loss at San Diego in their first meeting this season.  That was a rare loss for San Francisco in this series as they had won their previous four meetings all by 6 points or more.  This is also Senior Night for San Francisco, adding to their motivation. 

The Dons come in playing their best basketball of the season.  They have gone 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only loss coming 73-75 as 9.5-point underdogs at BYU.  That includes a 70-63 home upset of St. Mary’s as 9-point underdogs. 

San Francisco is 8-2 ATS in Saturday games this season.  The Dons are 8-2 ATS when playing their 2nd game in 3 days this season.  The Toreros are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss.  Roll with San Francisco Saturday. 

15* Auburn/Florida SEC No-Brainer on Florida -2 

The Florida Gators are dangerously playing their way onto the bubble.  They have done so by losing three straight by a combined 11 points coming in.  Now they are desperate for a signature win over the team with the best record in the SEC in Auburn.  I fully expect a big effort from the Gators at home here Saturday to save their season. 

Auburn has been hit hard by the injury bug here of late.  First it was Anferneed McLemore (7.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg) to go down with a season-ending ankle injury on February 17th.  Now it’s second-leading scorer Mustapha Heron (16.1 ppg, 5.4 rpg) who is dealing with the flu and is highly questionable to suit up for this one.  The Tigers are clearly more vulnerable right now than they have been all season. 

Florida simply owns Auburn, going 10-0 SU in the last 10 meetings, and 23-3 SU in the last 26 meetings.  The Gators are 11-0 SU in their last 11 home meetings with the Tigers.  Florida is 34-14 ATS in its last 48 after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games.  Roll with Florida Saturday.

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Oklahoma -3.5 

This is the ultimate ‘get right’ spot for the Oklahoma Sooners.  They have lost six straight games coming in and are now back to being undervalued after being overvalued for the majority of conference season following their hot start in non-conference play. 

This 0-6 stretch is understandable considering the Sooners have played four of their last six games on the road with home losses to WVU by 2 and Texas by 11.  Now they face a team they can handle in Kansas State, and they are certainly going to want some revenge after losing to the Wildcats in Manhattan in their first meeting this season. 

The Sooners are 11-2 at home this season and scoring 93.2 points per game.  The home team is 9-2 SU in the last 11 meetings.  The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS off three or more consecutive wins this season.  They are clearly overvalued right now.  Look for a huge effort from the home team tonight.  Take Oklahoma Saturday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on West Virginia -16 

The Iowa State Cyclones are an absolute mess right now.  They are without three of their best players in Donovan Jackson (15.4 ppg), Nick Weiler-Babb (13.3 ppg, 6.8 apg) and Solomon Young (7.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg).  That leaves them extremely short-handed heading into this game with West Virginia. 

That makes this a terrible matchup for the Cyclones against WVU’s press.  The Cyclones only played seven players against TCU on Wednesday.  They even had Jackson for that game, but he has decided to take some extra time off to mourn the loss of his father.  Iowa State will wear down quickly in this one and will be begging for mercy by halftime. 

West Virginia will have no mercy considering they lost to Iowa State 77-93 on the road in the first meeting. Now the Cyclones have to hit the road, where they have been atrocious.  Indeed, the Cyclones are 0-8 & 1-7 ATS in true road games this season, losing by a whopping 14.0 points per game on average.  And they were healthy for almost all of those games, which isn’t the case now. 

Iowa State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games after playing five consecutive games as an underdog.  The Cyclones are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games.  The Mountaineers are 12-3 at home this season and winning by 20.8 points per game on average.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -2.5 

The Utah Utes are the hottest team in the Pac-12 right now.  They have gone 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall to get to 18-9 on the season and play themselves into the bubble discussion of the NCAA Tournament.  They are currently one of the first few teams out according to Joe Lunardi, and a win over USC tonight would really help their cause. 

Utah is one of the toughest places to play in the country.  The Utes are 12-2 SU & 8-2 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 14.9 points per game.  They are 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in their last five Pac-12 home games, beating Washington by 8, Washington State by 13, Stanford by 15, California by 34 and UCLA by 6. 

USC is extremely vulnerable right now since losing stud forward Bennie Boatwright on January 16th to a season-ending knee injury.  Boatright averages 13.6 points and 6.4 rebounds per game.  He is irreplaceable on this team.  The Trojans are only 5-5 in true road games this season, and they will have a hard time winning in a hostile atmosphere here Saturday without one of their leaders. 

Utah is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite or PK this season.  The Utes are 6-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK over the past two years.  Utah is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with USC, including a perfect 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Salt Lake City.  Take Utah Saturday. 

25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oregon -3 

At 17-10 on the season and 7-7 in Pac-12 play, the Oregon Ducks are clearly on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  At 19-7 overall and with a strong non-conference record with several wins against quality teams, the Arizona State Sun Devils are safely in the big dance right now.  It’s clear which team needs this win more. 

I expect Oregon to come out like gangbusters tonight to try and get a win at home.  They Ducks have been very good at home of late, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four home games with a 3-point win over UCLA, an 8-point win over Oregon State, a 25-point win over Washington and a 27-point win over Washington State. 

Arizona is in a massive hangover spot after losing to Arizona last time out, getting swept in the season series by their biggest rivals.  Now they have no shot of winning the Pac-12 after that defeat.  And Oregon owns Arizona State, going 7-0 SU & 4-2-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  The Ducks are also 5-0 SU in their last five home meetings with the Sun Devils. 

Oregon is 11-2 ATS after a game where it committed 8 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  Arizona State is 3-13 ATS in road gams when revenging a loss over the last three seasons.  The Ducks beat the Sun Devils 76-72 as 7.5-point road underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 11th.  The Sun Devils are 1-4-2 ATS in their last seven road games.  Bet Oregon Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Pacific -2 

The Pacific Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have gone 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 WCC Games.  They are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. 

Now Pacific is going to be highly motivated for a win at home tonight against San Francisco.  It’s Senior Night for the Tigers, and they also want revenge from a tough 67-69 road loss at San Francisco in their first meeting back on January 25th. 

The Dons are starting to get too much respect now off back-to-back wins over St. Mary’s and Loyola-Marymount.  They caught St. Mary’s in a big letdown spot off a loss to Gonzaga.  I think the motivation and home court edge makes the Tigers a great play tonight. 

The Dons are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.  San Francisco is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  San Francisco is 0-8 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last two seasons.  Take Pacific Thursday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa State +5.5 

The Iowa State Cyclones will be playing inspired basketball tonight.  They will be trying to win this game for star point guard Donavan Jackson, who lost his father on Saturday night.  Jackson has decided to play in this game with a heavy heart, and his teammates will certainly rally around him. 

The crowd should be rocking for Jackson and company tonight.  The Cyclones continue to have one of the best home-court advantages in the country, and that has been on display of late.  Iowa State is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five Big 12 home games, which includes outright upsets over Baylor (75-65), Texas Tech (70-52), West Virginia (93-77) and Oklahoma (88-80). 

TCU has not played very well on the road here in Big 12 play, either.  The Horned Frogs are just 1-6 SU & 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven road games.  With that track record, they should not be getting this kind of respect from oddsmakers as 5.5-point road favorites over the Cyclones. 

Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 41% or better over the last three seasons.  TCU is 0-6 ATS in road games vs. teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last two years.  The Horned Frogs are 1-8 ATS off a Big 12 home win over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 10-2 ATS off two more more consecutive losses over the last three years.  TCU is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  Iowa State is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Roll with Iowa State Wednesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Penn State -2.5 

At 19-10 on the season, the Penn State Nittany Lions are good enough to be an NCAA Tournament team.  But they find themselves squarely on the bubble right now and in need of a big win.  That opportunity comes tonight as they host No. 17 Michigan. 

The Nittany Lions are 14-3 at home this season and winning by 14.9 points per game on average.  They have gone 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.  Their only two losses both came on the road to the two best teams in the Big Ten in Michigan State (68-76) as 14.5-point dogs and Purdue (73-76) as 9-point dogs.  Those two efforts proved they could play with anyone.  They also beat Ohio State 79-56 at home. 

Michigan hasn’t exactly fared well on the road recently.  The Wolverines are just 1-3 in their last four road games with their lone win coming at lowly Wisconsin.  They lost 52-61 at Northwestern, 88-92 at Purdue and 52-72 at Nebraska.  Now they have to face a hostile environment here on Senior Night at Penn State.  These seniors have done a lot for this program, and they want to end their careers with an NCAA Tournament berth.  A win here would go a long way in accomplishing that goal. 

Penn State is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering three of their last four against the spread over the past two seasons.  Michigan is 10-19 ATS off a home win over the last two years.  The Nittany Lions are 11-3 ATS in home games versus teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game over the last three seasons.  Take Penn State Wednesday. 

25* ACC GAME OF THE YEAR on Virginia Tech -4 

The Virginia Tech Hokies are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Now they get a chance at a signature win tonight over No. 15 Clemson at home.  I look for them to take advantage and win this game in blowout fashion. 

The Hokies are playing some great basketball here down the stretch in going 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  That includes a road wins over both Notre Dame and Virginia as they have played five of those eight games on the road.  They also beat both UNC and NC State at home and are 12-3 at home this year. 

Clemson is vulnerable right now, and that has shown with back-to-back losses to Florida State and Duke.  They were already without one of their best players in Donte Grantham (14.2 ppg, 6.9 rpg), but now they’ll also be without fourth-leading scorer and top assist man Shelton Mitchell (11.8 ppg, 3.8 apg) tonight due to a concussion. 

The Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Hokies are 26-11-1 ATS in their last 38 home games.  Virginia Tech is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Clemson, including 3-1-1 ATS in its last five home meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Wednesday. 

15* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky +5.5 

The Kentucky Wildcats lost four in a row for the first time in the John Calipari era recently.  They are now undervalued due to that tough stretch that features road losses at Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn and a home loss to Tennessee. 

But that tough stretch will have prepared these young Wildcats for the stretch run.  They responded well with an 81-71 win over Alabama over the weekend.  Now they hit the road to take on an Arkansas team that I think is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers now. 

The Razorbacks have won four in a row and seven of their last nine games overall.  You’re now starting to have to pay a point spread tax on Arkansas due to this run.  But I don’t believe this is one of the better teams in the SEC.  I expect Kentucky to be able to handle them tonight. 

Kentucky owns Arkansas, going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning those five by an average of 17.8 points per game.  Now we are getting the Wildcats as substantial underdogs here tonight. Roll with Kentucky Tuesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -6.5 

Off back-to-back road losses at Missouri and Arkansas, the Texas A&M Aggies come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are in jeopardy of missing the NCAA Tournament due to their 6-8 conference record.  They need a big finish here and will be motivated to get in the big dance. 

I think this is a great time to fade Mississippi State, which is coming off a 79-62 home win over rival Ole Miss.  But the Bulldogs haven’t been very good on the road this season, going just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS in true road games.  Texas A&M is 12-2 at home this year and winning by 13.2 points per game. 

The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games, beating Kentucky by 11, South Carolina by 23, Arkansas by 14 and Missouri by 11.  Mississippi State is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games.  Texas A&M is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games as a favorite of 6.5 to 9 points.  Take Texas A&M Tuesday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE MONTH on Butler -5.5 

The Butler Bulldogs will be out for revenge from an 85-74 road loss at Creighton in their first meeting back on January 9th.  Well the Bluejays have lost one of their best players in Martin Krampelj since then to injury, and they simply aren’t as good. 

That has shown as the Bluejays have gone just 4-4 SU & 1-6 ATS in lined games.  They just lost at home to Marquette last time out as 6-point favorites and have dropped three of their last four Big East games.  They are ripe for the picking right now. 

Butler has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 13-3 SU & 11-4 ATS at home this season.  They are coming off an impressive 69-54 home victory over Providence as 8.5-point favorites.  Butler is 8-1 ATS in home games off a win this season.   

Creighton is 4-12 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last three years.  Plays on home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Butler) - revenging a loss where opponent scores 85 or more points, off a home win by 10 points or more are 43-15 (74.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Butler Tuesday. 

20* Penn State/Purdue Big Ten No-Brainer on Purdue -8.5 

The Purdue Boilermakers will be highly motivated for a victory tonight.  After opening 12-0 in the Big Ten, the Boilermakers have shockingly lost three straight to lose their stranglehold on the conference title.  Look for them to put forth their biggest effort of the season tonight to get back on track. 

Penn State comes in overvalued due to its four-game winning streak.  But three of those four games were at home with their only road win coming at Illinois, which is the worst team in the Big Ten. 

Purdue is 15-2 SU & 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home meetings with Penn State.  Plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Penn State) - off a home blowout win by 20 points or more against an opponent that’s off an upset loss as a road favorite are 74-39 (65.5%) ATS since 1997.  Bet Purdue Sunday. 

15* Houston/Temple AAC ANNIHILATOR on Temple +3

The Houston Cougars are in a massive letdown spot today.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 67-62 upset home win over Cincinnati.  The Bearcats were previously unbeaten in AAC play. 

While the Cougars are 13-0 at home, they have been vulnerable on the road at 7-5 SU & 5-7 ATS in all road games.  Now they’re up against a feisty Temple team that will be hungry for revenge from a 73-76 road loss at Houston in their first meeting this season. 

Temple is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Owls are 7-2 SU in their last nine games with their only losses coming on the road at Cincinnati and at Wichita State. 

The Owls are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Temple is 7-0 ATS after a game with 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last two seasons.  The Owls are 6-0 ATS after scoring 85 points or more over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a perfect 19-0 system backing the Owls.  Take Temple Sunday. 

15* UNC/Louisville ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on Louisville -1 

The Louisville Cardinals have done a tremendous job of focusing this season amidst the Rick Pitino scandal.  They currently are 18-8 and one of the better teams in the ACC with an 8-5 record. 

I think the Cardinals are primed to ‘upset’ the ranked UNC Tar Heels at home today.  Louisville is 14-3 at home while outscoring opponents by 14.4 points per game on average.  Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 SU in the last six meetings. 

The Cardinals are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Louisville is 6-0 ATS in home games after scoring 85 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Cardinals are 9-1 ATS after two straight games where they allowed 37% shooting or less over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons.  Take Louisville Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston College +1 

The Boston College Eagles are actually on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament with a 16-10 record on the season.  They need a big push here at the end and can get to .500 in ACC play with a win Saturday.   

It’s safe to say they’ll be highly motivated for a victory to avenge an 85-96 loss at Notre Dame in their first meeting this season on February 6th.  But now the Eagles get them at home, where they are 13-2 this season with wins over the likes of Duke, Florida State and Miami.  Their only two home losses came by a combined 9 points with one coming in overtime. 

The Fighting Irish have struggled ever since losing Bonzie Colson to an injury.  They are just 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  I think they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers today as road favorites over the Eagles. 

Boston College is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.  The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a win by more than 20 points.  The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boston College Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wake Forest -1 

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are playing well right now.  They have recent home wins over both Florida State and Georgia Tech, and their last three losses were all competitive as they lost by 8 at home to Clemson, by 6 at Miami and by 8 at Syracuse. 

Home-court advantage means a ton when NC State and Wake Forest get together.  In fact, the home team is 11-1 SU in the last 12 meetings.  The home team is also 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.   

NC State is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games following an ATS win.  The Wolfpack are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games following an ATS win. NC State is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 road games.  Bet Wake Forest Saturday. 

15* Mountain West PLAY OF THE DAY on Air Force +14.5 

This is a terrible spot for Boise State.  The Broncos are coming off a 72-77 home loss to Nevada.  Now with two losses to Nevada this season, they aren’t going to win the Mountain West, which was their goal.  They are clearly in a hangover spot here today. 

Plus, Air Force is going to be out for revenge from a hard-fought 64-70 home loss to Boise State as 8.5-point underdogs on January 27th.  Now the Falcons are catching 14.5 points in the rematch, which is more than enough for them to cover. 

The Falcons have been grossly undervalued in Mountain West play this season as they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.  The Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.  Boise State is 1-10 ATS in February games over the past two seasons.  Air Force is 7-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Roll with Air Force Saturday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on LSU -1.5 

The Missouri Tigers are getting too much love right now due to their five-game winning streak.  Well, all five wins have come by single-digits, so they have been fortunate in close games.  And they are primed for a letdown off a 62-58 home win over Texas A&M last time out. 

LSU has been one of the more underrated teams in the SEC, especially when they play at home.  They are 10-4 at home this season.  They have have three straight impressive home wins over Texas A&M (77-65), Arkansas (94-86) and Ole Miss (82-66). 

Missouri is 1-8 ATS after playing two consecutive home games over the past two seasons.  LSU is 3-0 SU & 2-1 ATS in their last three home meetings with Missouri.  Take LSU Saturday. 

20* Rhode Island/St. Bonaventure ESPN 2 No-Brainer on St. Bonaventure +2.5

The Rhode Island Rams are 13-0 in Atlantic 10 play and already have the conference title wrapped up.  I can’t help but think they are going to relax here down the stretch, and they are clearly overvalued right now. 

St. Bonaventure is the second-best team in the Atlantic 10 in my opinion.  They are the only team capable of beating Rhode Island, and they’re at home tonight in what will be a hostile atmosphere against a ranked foe. 

St. Bonaventure is 19-6 on the season, including 10-1 in home games where they’re winning by 16.0 points per game.  The Bonnies come in playing their best basketball of the season having won seven straight. 

The Rams suffered a big blow when second-leading scorer E.C. Matthews was forced to leave last game with an injury.  He is very questionable to play tonight.  Matthews averages 12.9 points per game on the season and is a veteran leader on this team. 

Rhode Island is 1-11 ATS on the road when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The home team is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, so home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  Bet St. Bonaventure Friday.

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Washington +1.5 

The Washington Huskies have been one of the most underrated teams in the country this season.  They have managed to go 17-8 and are on the verge of making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2011. 

Off two consecutive road losses, I look for the Huskies to come out highly motivated for a victory at home tonight.  The Huskies have handled their business at home this season with a 13-2 mark at home.  They will be out for revenge from a 62-70 loss at Utah in their first meeting this season. 

Utah is coming off back-to-back home victories and is getting too much respect from the books now.  The Utes have gone just 1-4 in their last five Pac-12 road games with three of those losses coming by double-digits. 

Utah is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 road games after allowing 37% or less shooting in two consecutive games coming in.  The Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.  Take Washington Thursday. 

20* Cincinnati/Houston AAC No-Brainer on Houston +3 

The Cincinnati Bearcats basically have the AAC locked up with a 12-0 record and a three-game lead over Houston.  So they can afford to relax tonight and lose their first conference game and it’s really not going to hurt them.  I think Houston will be the more motivated team here tonight. 

Houston is a team that is squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, and a win over Cincinnati would likely help push them in.  They are 19-5 this season and a perfect 12-0 at home, outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.5 points per game on their home floor. 

Houston actually led Cincinnati by 18 on the road in their first meeting this season, but the Bearcats came storming back and won 80-70.  That clearly places the Cougars in revenge mode tonight, and that game clearly showed they could play with the Bearcats. 

The Cougars are 4-0-1 ATS in their last six home games. Houston is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who average 40 or more rebounds per game over the past three seasons.  The Bearcats are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  Bet Houston Thursday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Southern Illinois -3 

The Southern Illinois Salukis need to be more than 3-point home favorites tonight over Missouri State.  The Salukis have been the second-best team in the MVC this season with a 17-10 overall record and a 9-5 mark in conference play.  They are only two games back of Loyola-Chicago and certainly want to hold on to the No. 2 seed. 

The Salukis have taken care of their home court this season.  They are 12-2 in home games with an average victory of 10.9 points per game.  They are 6-1 at home in MVC play.  They already beat Missouri State 79-77 on the road in their first meeting this season.  That is nothing new in this series as the Salukis are 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. 

Missouri State is getting way too much respect fro back-to-back wins over Indiana State and Evansville.  But the Bears were just 2-7 SU & 0-9 ATS in their nine games prior.  This team simply isn’t very good this season and is no match for Southern Illinois tonight. 

Southern Illinois is 9-1 ATS versus teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game over the last three seasons.  Missouri State is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Salukis are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Roll with Southern Illinois Wednesday. 

15* Atlantic 10 PLAY OF THE DAY on VCU +3 

Wrong team favored here.  The VCU Rams should not be home underdogs to the Davidson Wildcats.  These are two evenly-matched teams in the Atlantic 10 with Davidson at 8-4 and VCU at 7-5.  But the home-court advantage and the motivation for the Rams to catch the Wildcats in the standings makes VCU the right side tonight. 

VCU has gone 11-4 SU & &-4 ATS at home this season.  Three of those four losses came to ranked Virginia and Rhode Island teams, as well as Texas.  The only upset loss was to Richmond, and Richmond also beat Davidson on the road earlier this season. 

Davidson is just 4-7 in true road games this season.  The four wins have come against terrible teams in Charlotte as a 9-point favorite, George Mason as a 6-point favorite, Fordham as an 8-point favorite and George Washington as a 7-point favorite.  The Wildcats also suffered upset road losses at Appalachian State, Hawaii and Richmond. 

VCU is 8-0 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  The Rams are winning by 16.8 points per game in this spot.  The Rams are 7-1 ATS versus teams who average 6 or fewer steals per game this season.  Take VCU Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Florida State -4 

The Florida State Seminoles come in highly motivated for a victory here tonight at home against Clemson. They have lost two straight and three of their last four and need a signature win against a ranked team here to stay on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. 

Two of those three losses came on the road, while the other was a 55-59 home loss to top-ranked Virginia in which the Seminoles blew a double-digit lead.  Look for them to be able to handle Clemson tonight and improve upon their impressive 10-2 home record where they are winning by 15.6 points per game on average. 

The Tigers are overvalued right now due to their four-game winning streak.  But they have feasted on weak competition with their four wins coming against Pitt, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech and UNC (at home).  Prior to this winning streak, they had lost each of their previous three road games in ACC play.  The Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  They are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games overall. 

Florida State is 8-1 ATS in home games versus teams who make 8 or more 3-point shots per game over the last three seasons, winning by 19.5 points per game in this spot.  Clemson is 0-7 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams that allow 42% shooting or less after 15-plus games over the last two seasons.  The Tigers are losing by 16.7 points per game in this spot.  Bet Florida State Wednesday. 

15* Virginia/Miami ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Miami +6 

After reaching No. 1 in the poll for the first time in 36 years, the Virginia Cavaliers are sure to relax a little.  They already started that with their upset loss to Virginia Tech as 12-point home favorites over the weekend.  But because they are No. 1, they continue to get too much respect from oddsmakers as 6-point road favorites at Miami tonight. 

Miami is in need of a signature win that will help its case for the NCAA Tournament.  There’s no question the Hurricanes will be highly motivated for a victory here tonight hosting the top-ranked team in the country.  I look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season. 

Miami has been an extremely tough out at home this year.  The Hurricanes are 9-1 at home while winning by 15.2 points per game on average.  Their only home loss came to Duke after they blew a double-digit second half lead.  Miami is 6-1 straight up in its last seven home meetings with Virginia with its only loss coming in overtime.  Roll with Miami Tuesday. 

25* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Richmond +16 

I’ve been riding the Richmond Spiders hard of late because they are so undervalued due to their 9-15 record.  They are much better than that record would indicate, and each of their last seven losses have come by 9 points or less, so they’ve simply had poor luck in close games. 

Richmond has gotten on track in conference play here of late.  The Spiders are 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall with five outright upsets.  They went on the road and beat VCU 67-52 as 8.5-point underdogs and also topped Davidson 66-63 as 11-point dogs.  Now they find themselves catching a whopping 16 points from Rhode Island tonight. 

Sure, Rhode Island is the best team in the Atlantic 10, but I can’t help but think the Rams are primed for a letdown tonight.  That’s because they are 12-0 in the conference and have a whopping four-game lead over second place (8-4).  They can afford to relax a little here down the stretch with such a big lead in the conference. 

Richmond is 6-0 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games over the last two seasons.  The Spiders are 6-0 ATS in road games after allowing 85 points or more over the last two years.  Richmond is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.  The four trends combine for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Spiders tonight.  Bet Richmond Tuesday. 

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Nebraska +1 

What more do the Nebraska Cornhuskers have to do to get some respect?  Apparently it doesn’t matter what they do because they’re undervalued game in and game out.  And I believe that to be the case once again as they are shockingly home underdogs to Maryland tonight. 

Nebraska has gone 12-3 SU in its last 15 games overall.  The only losses were a 5-point loss at Ohio State as 12-point dogs, a 2-point loss at Penn State as 7.5-point dogs and a 12-point loss at Purdue as 21-point dogs.  More impressively, the Huskers are a ridiculous 15-1 ATS in their last 16 lined games.  Nebraska has certainly handled its business at home with a 13-1 SU & 10-2 ATS record this season. 

Maryland is clearly down this season.  The Terrapins are just 3-6 in their last nine games overall with all three victories coming at home.  Maryland is just 1-7 in true road games this season with its only victory coming against lonely Illinois (92-91) by a single point. 

Nebraska is 7-0 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) this season.  The Huskers are 9-0 ATS off a conference win this season.  Nebraska is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 Big Ten contests.  Take Nebraska Tuesday. 

15* Notre Dame/UNC ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Notre Dame +10.5 

The UNC Tar Heels are in a massive letdown spot tonight at home against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.  They are coming off back-to-back wins over Duke and NC State by a combined 11 points.  Those are their two biggest rivals, and it’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown after two such big wins. 

I also like the fact that Notre Dame is grossly undervalued right now.  The Fighting Irish had lost seven straight while going 1-6 ATS before the return of star PG Matt Farrell.  But they have turned it around since his return from injury, winning their last two in blowout fashion over Boston College (96-85) and Florida State (84-69). 

Now the Fighting Irish will be highly motivated for revenge from a 69-68 home loss to North Carolina as 5-point underdogs back on January 13th, which was the second game of their seven-game skid.  And it’s worth noting that both Bonzie Colson and Farrell sat out that game due to injury.  Well, now Farrell (16.5 ppg, 5.2 apg) is back and he makes all the difference for this team running the show at point guard. 

North Carolina is 0-7 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) over the last three seasons.  The Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Tar Heels.  Roll with Notre Dame Monday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +14 

Mike Dunleavy has done a great job of turning around this Tulane program already.  He has the Green Wave sitting at 13-10 on the season, and one of their wins was an 81-72 upset home win over this same Houston team that they will be facing today. 

Tulane leading scorer Melvin Frazier missed the team’s last game with a chest injury, but they played well in an 89-91 loss at Tulsa as 6.5-point underdogs.  Frazier is questionable to return today.  I’m not too concerned if he does or not because this is a deep Green Wave team that boasts five players scoring in double figures this season. 

I think Houston is getting too much love from oddsmakers tonight due to its 11-0 home record.  Well, the Cougars were trailing late against SMU at home last time out and were fortunate to win 67-58.  That was an SMU team playing without its two best players, too. 

Houston is 1-12 ATS versus good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game over the past two seasons.  It is actually losing to these teams by 7.6 points per game on average.  The Cougars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  Take Tulane Sunday. 

25* Gonzaga/St. Mary’s WCC GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Mary’s -1.5 

The reputation Gonzaga has built up from years past has the Bulldogs massively overrated this season.  That has been especially the case of late as Gonzaga is 0-8 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Now the Bulldogs are once again getting too much respect from the books as only 1.5-point underdogs at St. Mary’s. 

It’s clear to me that St. Mary’s is simply the better team this season.  The Gaels are 24-2 and already went on the road and beat Gonzaga 74-71 as 7.5-point underdogs in their first meeting.  Now the Gaels will cap off the season sweep in front of a rowdy home crowd tonight.  The Gaels are 14-0 at home this season and winning by 18.7 points per game on average.  Bet St. Mary’s Saturday. 

15* Kentucky/Texas A&M SEC No-Brainer on Texas A&M -5 

It has been a tale of two seasons for Texas A&M.  The Aggies have been virtually unbeatable when they’ve been healthy, and they couldn’t win when they had players banged up.  Well, they’re back to being healthy and it’s starting to show on the court. 

The Aggies are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They beat Arkansas by 14 and South Carolina by 23 at home, while also upsetting Auburn as 6-point road underdogs.  Now their mission will be to get revenge from a 73-74 loss at Kentucky back when they weren’t healthy in their first meeting this season. 

This is as vulnerable as I remember Kentucky ever being under John Calipari.  The Wildcats are just 3-4 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They lost by 9 at Missouri and by 8 at South Carolina in two recent road games, two teams that aren’t nearly as good as Texas A&M. 

Kentucky is 0-6 ATS after a game with 9 or fewer assets over the past two seasons.  The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS against conference opponents this season.  Bet Texas A&M Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Dobut Rout on Saint Louis -3.5 

The Saint Louis Billikens have been grossly undervalued over the last few weeks.  They are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They are 5-2 SU in their last seven games with one of their losses coming by a single point to VCU.  I think the fact that they are coming off a 23-point loss at St. Bonaventure has them undervalued tonight. 

Saint Louis should be able to handle a 10-14 LaSalle squad that has been overvalued for over a month.  In fact, the Explorers are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They are just 2-12 SU in games played away from home this season. 

Saint Louis is a perfect 13-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons.  La Salle is 0-7 ATS in road games versus teams who force 14 or fewer turnovers this season.  The Explorers are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.  The Billikens are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  Roll with Saint Louis Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Virginia Tech +12 

The Virginia Cavaliers cannot possibly be more overvalued than they are right now.  After going 12-0 SU & 9-3 ATS in conference play to this point, the Cavaliers have the attention of the betting public.  Now they are laying a whopping 12 points today to Virginia Tech. 

I think we see Virginia relax a little here down the stretch because they basically already have the ACC title wrapped up.  And they already beat VA Tech 78-52 on the road earlier this season, so they probably think they just have to show up to win. 

But that won’t be the case as VA Tech is a pesky bunch that will fight you for 40 minutes under Buzz Williams.  And the Hokies have really gotten it going of late with a 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in run in their last five games overall.  That includes blowout home wins over UNC (by 11) and NC State (by 10), as well all road wins at Notre Dame and Boston College. 

The Hokies are 7-0 ATS in their last seven after three straight games where both teams scored 75 or more points.  VA Tech is 6-0 ATS when revenging a same-season loss over the last three seasons.  Take Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Iowa +14.5 

This is a terrible spot for the Ohio State Buckeyes.  They are coming off their biggest win of the season, a 64-63 road win at No. 3 Purdue on Wednesday.  That win tied them for first place in the Big Ten with the Boilermakers.  It is only human nature for them to suffer a letdown tonight off such a massive victory. 

Iowa has been playing much better of late, going 3-2 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Hawkeyes just took Michigan State to the wire and actually had an 8-point lead late in that game, but lost 93-96 as 10-point underdogs.  They will have no problem getting back up off the mat to face another ranked foe in Ohio State tonight. 

Ohio State is 4-13 ATS off a win by 6 points or less over the last three season.  The Buckeyes are 0-6 ATS in home games off three or more consecutive unders over the last three years.  Ohio State is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Nebraska, Penn State and Illinois have all played Ohio State to close games on the road recently, and the Hawkeyes can do just that too.  Bet Iowa Saturday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Alabama +2.5 

The Alabama Crimson Tide need a signature win here to improve their tournament resume.  They have that chance against a ranked Tennessee opponent that is primed for a letdown following its upset road win at Kentucky earlier this week. 

Alabama has beaten some very good teams at home this season.  The Crimson Tide pulled upsets over both Auburn and Oklahoma, and they also beat the likes of Texas A&M at home.  They are 10-2 at home this season. 

Alabama is 16-6 ATS in its last 22 games as a home underdog of 3 points or less or PK.  The Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.  Alabama is 37-17 ATS in its last 54 games following an ATS loss.  The Crimson Tide are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings, including 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home meetings.  Roll with Alabama Saturday. 

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Richmond +10.5 

Richmond is grossly undervalued right now due to its 9-14 record.  But the Spiders are much better than that as they have simply had bad luck in close games.  Each of their last six losses have come by 8 points or less. 

But the Spiders have got on track in conference play here of late.  They are now 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall with five outright upsets.  They went on the road and beat VCU 67-52 as 8.5-point dogs and Davidson 66-63 as 11-point dogs.  They should not be catching 10.5 points today against St. Bonaventure. 

Richmond is 8-1 ATS off a conference home win over the last two seasons.  St. Bonaventure is 1-8 ATS after covering three of their last four against the spread over the last three seasons.  The Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Spiders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Richmond Saturday. 

15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +13 

The Pacific Tigers have been money-making machines this season, especially in conference play.  Pacific has gone 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall, yet it continues to get no respect from oddsmakers as 13-point home underdogs to Gonzaga tonight. 

Conversely, Gonzaga continues to get way too much respect from oddsmakers based on what they’ve done in years’ past.  But this Bulldogs team isn’t nearly as good as previous years.  That has shown here of late as the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall. 

I can’t help but think Gonzaga is going to be looking ahead to a huge showdown with St. Mary’s on Saturday.  The Bulldogs want revenge from a 71-74 home loss to the Gaels.  They know that game will likely decide the conference, and they won’t be paying as much attention to Pacific tonight as they should be. 

Pacific is 11-1 ATS off a conference game this season.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games versus good rebounding teams out rebounding their opponents by 4-plus boards per game after 15-plus games.  The Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.  Roll with Pacific Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston -8.5 

The Houston Cougars are a legit NCAA Tournament team this season.  They have gone 17-5 on the year, and most of their damage has been done at home.  They are 10-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season, winning by an average of 21.7 points per game.  They throttled Wichita State 73-59 at home a few weeks back. 

SMU is having a down season at 15-8.  But the Mustangs have really struggled of late, going 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have lost their last two road games by 11 at Connecticut and by 9 at Tulsa, two teams that aren’t nearly as strong as Houston. 

The biggest reason for the Mustangs’ struggles has been injuries.  It all started when Jarrey Foster (13.2 ppg, 5.9 rpg), their second-leading scorer, was lost for the season with a torn ACL in late January.  But now their best player in Shake Milton (18.0 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 4.4 apg) suffered a hand injury last time out that will force him out of action for the foreseeable future. 

The Mustangs are 1-7 ATS in their last six road games.  The Cougars are 5-1 ATS int heir last six home games.  Houston is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  SMU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Houston Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Richmond +2 

The Richmond Spiders are just 8-14 on the season and grossly underrated because of that record.  They are more like a 14-8 team, but they’ve had terrible luck in close games.  In fact, each of their last six losses have come by 8 points or less. 

We’ve seen what Richmond has been capable here of late.  The Spiders are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, which includes a 67-52 win at VCU as 8.5-point dogs and a 66-63 win at Davidson as 11-point dogs. 

The only game Richmond lost during this stretch came last time out in an upset home loss to George Mason by a final of 75-79 as 7-point favorites.  However, second-leading scorer and leading rebounder De’Monte Buckingham (12.6 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 3.4 apg) was suspended for that game.  Well, Buckingham returns tonight and should provide a huge lift to the team. 

VCU is down big-time this season compared to years’ past.  But the Rams get the reputation that they’re still one of the best teams in the Atlantic 10 when that simply isn’t the case.  They are just 14-9 this season and tied with Richmond in the conference standings at 6-4.  And with Richmond already beating VCU by 15 on the road, there’s no way the Spiders should be home underdogs in the rematch. 

VCU is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 Wednesday games.  Richmond is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 Wednesday games.  The Spiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Rams are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with Richmond Wednesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida -8 

The Florida Gators come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They are coming off back-to-back ugly losses to Georgia and Alabama.  They have responded well following losses this year, and they are certainly much better than they’ve shown over these past two games. 

Now the Gators have a great chance to get back in the win column in blowout fashion against LSU tonight.  The Tigers are just 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They haven’t even been competitive in their last two road games, losing by 23 at Tennessee and by 25 at Auburn. 

LSU is 1-10 ATS in road games after having lost two of its last three games over the past three seasons.  The Tigers are 11-26 ATS off a win over the last three years.  Florida is 78-48 ATS in its last 126 games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games.  LSU is 3-14 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3-point shots per game over the last two seasons.  Take Florida Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Ole Miss -1 

The Ole Miss Rebels have been extremely tough at home this season, especially in SEC play.  They are 10-4 at home this year.  But they are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games, winning and covering against the likes of Florida, Mississippi State, Alabama and South Carolina.   

Their only home loss during this stretch came to Auburn by a final of 70-79, which is the best team in the SEC.  Off three consecutive losses, it’s safe to say the Rebels will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Missouri Tigers. 

Off back-to-back wins over Alabama and Kentucky, I believe Missouri comes into this game overvalued.  The Tigers are just 3-4 in true road games this season.  They have recent double-digits road losses to the likes of Mississippi State and Texas A&M. 

It’s safe to say that Ole Miss owns Missouri.  In fact, the Rebels are 8-0 SU & 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Missouri.  Ole Miss is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games following a loss by more than 20 points.  The Rebels are 36-15-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a loss overall.  Missouri is 0-6 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in two straight games over the last three seasons.  Ole Miss is 13-1 ATS off a loss to a conference opponent over the last two years.  Roll with Ole Miss Tuesday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Northwestern +1.5 

The Northwestern Wildcats have gotten it together here of late.  They are 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall despite playing three of those games on the road.  Now I look for them to handle their business as home underdogs to Michigan tonight. 

The lone loss during this stretch for the Wildcats came at Michigan on January 29th just a week ago by a final of 47-58.  The Wildcats lost the turnover battle 16-5 in that game, so that was the difference.  Look for them to take much better care of the ball at home tonight and to be highly motivated for revenge on the Wolverines. 

Michigan is 9-18 ATS off a home win over the last two seasons.  Northwestern is 14-5 ATS after covering two of its last three against the spread over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 10-3 at home this season and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Take Northwestern Tuesday.

20* Xavier/Butler Big East No-Brainer on Butler -3.5 

The Butler Bulldogs are absolutely rolling right now.  They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, winning the four by 12, 25, 20 and 23 points.  Now they will be playing at home tonight, where they have one of the best advantages in the country.  The Bulldogs are 12-1 SU & 10-2 ATS at home this year. 

Butler will be highly motivated for a victory here to avenge a 79-86 road loss to Xavier back on January 2nd in their first meeting this season.  I think Butler has improved significantly since that loss and will be ready for the challenge tonight.  After all, Butler did beat Villanova at home, handing the Wildcats their only loss this season. 

Xavier comes in overvalued due to winning six straight and being ranked No. 5 in the country.  But their wins have not come easy.  In fact, nine of Xavier’s last 12 wins have come by single-digits.  They have simply had good fortune in close games, but I think their luck will run out tonight. 

Butler is a perfect 8-0 ATS in home games off a win this season.  Plays on home favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Butler) - revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points, off a home blowout win by 20 points or more are 23-4 (85.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Butler Tuesday. 

15* Seton Hall/Villanova Big East No-Brainer on Seton Hall +12.5 

The Villanova Wildcats have a huge target on their backs right now because they are the No. 1 ranked team in the country.  With that ranking comes expectations from the betting public and oddsmakers that will be tough to live up to. 

There’s no way Villanova should be a 12.5-point favorite today against a Seton Hall team that is among the best in the Big East at 17-5 this season.  The Pirates are coming off back-to-back blowout victories by 16 at DePaul and by 16 at home over Providence, and now they’re ready to give the Wildcats a run for their money. 

This is a Seton Hall team that is absolutely loaded due to returning its four best players from last season.  That team only lost 55-53 to Villanova in the Big East Tournament as 11.5-point underdogs.  All four starters that returned are averaging at least 13 points per game in Desi Rodriquez (17.3 ppg, 5.0 rpg), Myles Powell (14.5 ppg), Khadeen Carrington (14.2 ppg, 4.4 apg) and Angel Delgado (13.2 ppg, 12.1 rpg). 

Seton Hall is 30-12 ATS in its last 42 road games when playing against a team that has won more than 80% of its games after 15-plus games.  The Pirates are 22-9 ATS as underdogs over the last three seasons.  The Wildcats are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games after four straight games where they committed 11 or fewer turnovers.  Villanova is 0-4 ATS in its last four Sunday games.  Roll with Seton Hall Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on San Diego +10.5 

What more does San Diego have to do to get some respect?  The Toreros are one of the most improved teams in the country this season at 15-8 on the year.  That includes a 9-3 home record with their three losses all coming by single-digits. 

San Diego only lost 63-70 at St. Mary’s as 13.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 6th.  Now the Toreros are catching a whopping 10.5 points at home in the rematch, and they’ll clearly be out for revenge. 

St. Mary’s is clearly getting too much love right now from the books due to its 22-2 record and No. 13 national ranking.  Four of the Gaels’ last five wins have been relatively close.  I think they feel like they can just show up and win tonight, but that won’t be the case. 

Plays against favorites of 10 or more points (St. Mary’s) off three or more consecutive undress, a good offensive team scoring 76 or more points per game against an average offensive team (67-74 ppg) after 15-plus games are 68-33 (67.3%) ATS since 1997.  Take San Diego Saturday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Pittsburgh +23 

Because they are 0-10 in ACC play, the Pitt Panthers are grossly undervalued right now.  The betting public wants nothing to do with them, which has inflated their lines recently.  As a result, the Panthers have gone 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall. 

The Panthers are improving rapidly because they are such a young team this year under Kevin Stallings.  During their 5-0 ATS run, they have been competitive in four of the five games, including a 5-point loss to Syracuse and a 4-point loss to NC State. 

Conversely, UNC continues to be grossly overrated despite going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its last three games.  In fact, the Tar Heels have only covered the spread in one of their last 10 games overall.  They cannot be laying 23 points to Pitt here, especially with a lookahead game on deck with rival Duke up next. 

Kevin Stallings is 7-0 ATS off six or more consecutive losses as the coach of Pittsburgh.  We’ll take this 100% never lost system straight to the bank today.  Bet Pittsburgh Saturday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

The Michigan State Spartans are distracted right now from the Larry Nassar deal.  Head coach Tom Izzo keeps refusing to answer questions in the media, which only furthers the suspicion.  And the Spartans’ play on the court has shown the distractions as they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. 

Indiana is ever-improving in the first season under Archie Miller.  The Hoosiers have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.  They have played very well at home of late, going 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their only loss came to Purdue by 7 as 8.5-point home underdogs, and the Boilermakers are the best team in the Big Ten.  They have proven they can play with a team of Michigan State’s caliber. 

Indiana is 10-6 SU & 10-6 ATS in its last 16 home meetings with Michigan State.  The Hoosiers are 30-16 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons.  Indiana is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.  The home team is 20-8 ATS in the last 28 meetings.  Roll with Indiana Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Stanford PK 

The Stanford Cardinal are one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season.  They are 6-3 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall, yet they continue lacking the respect they deserve as a pick ‘em at home tonight against Oregon.  And two of those losses were a 2-point home loss to Arizona and a 5-point road loss at USC, two of the best teams in the Pac-12. 

Oregon is certainly in the midst of a down year, which was expected after all they lost last season from their Final Four team.  Oregon’s only three road wins this year have come against Fresno, Cal and Arizona State.  I think they’ll be in over their heads here against the Cardinal. 

Stanford is 15-4 SU & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 home meetings with Oregon.  The Cardinal are 8-0 ATS in home games when playing against a good team (winning 60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  It is actually winning these games by 9.5 points per game on average.  Take Stanford Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Illinois State -4.5 

Illinois State comes in off back-to-back impressive performances.  The Redbirds beat Valparaiso 76-65 as 4-point home favorites and upset Missouri State 76-60 as 6.5-point road underdogs.  They are hitting their stride right now and should be more than 4.5-point home favorites over Valparaiso. 

Illinois State is 5-1 in its last six home games with its only loss coming to the best team in the MVC in Loyola-Chicago.  The last two home games were very impressive with that 11-point win over Valparaiso and a 13-point win over Bradley, which is arguably the second-best team in the conference. 

Evansville simply cannot bet trusted on the road.  The Purple Aces are 2-6 in true road games this season, losing by an average of 12.0 points per game.  They were already playing without Duane Gibson (6.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg) due to injury, and now they’ve lost point guard Dru Smith (13.5 ppg, 4.7 apg, 47.7% 3-pointers) indefinitely due to a foot injury.  He is their most important player and they won’t be nearly as good without him moving forward. 

Illinois State owns Evansville.  The Redbirds already beat the Purple Aces 72-66 on the road in their first meeting this season back in December.  They are now 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings, winning all five by 6 points or more, including four by double-digits.  Illinois State is also 16-4 SU & in its last 20 home meetings with Evansville.  Bet Illinois State Saturday. 

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Northern Iowa -3.5 

Northern Iowa will be out for revenge from a 67-69 road loss at Indiana State on January 10th in their first meeting this season.  The Sycamores got a tip in just before the buzzer to beat the Panthers in excruciating fashion. 

Now Northern Iowa gets Indiana State at home this time around.  The Panthers are 9-3 at home this season, winning by 12.7 points per game on average.  They are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three home games, beating Illinois State by 11 as 6.5-point favorites, Drake by 14 as 6.5-point favorites and Valparaiso by 5 as 4-point favorites. 

Indiana State is not playing well at all right now.  The Sycamores are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall.  Indiana State certainly has not fared well outside of its home arena.  The Sycamores are 3-9 in all road games this season. 

Indiana State is 1-8 ATS in road games off two or more consecutive losses over the past three seasons, losing by an average of 10.6 points per game in this spot.  The Sycamores are 16-36-2 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Panthers are 20-7-4 ATS in their last 31 games vs. a team with a losing record.  Take Northern Iowa Saturday. 

25* Big 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on West Virginia -7.5 

The West Virginia Mountaineers opened 15-1 and looked like one of the best teams in the country.  But they have since gone 1-5 in their last six games overall, losing four times by 7 points or less.  Now they are back to being undervalued, and they are certainly more motivated for a win today than at any other point this season. 

The Kansas State Wildcats lost point guard Kamau Stokes (13.4 ppg, 4.6 apg) in early January and he has missed the past seven games and is out for the season.  They actually played well for a while in his absence, but I think it will start to catch up with them moving forward.  That started to show last time out with a 56-70 home loss to Kansas.  Off a loss to their biggest rivals, it will be hard for the Wildcats to avoid a hangover here. 

West Virginia has owned Kansas State, going 7-2 SU & 5-4 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Mountaineers already won 77-69 as 1.5-point road favorites at Kansas State on January 1st in their first meeting this season.  They should have no problem winning by 8-plus points in the rematch at home this time around.  WVU Is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in its last four home meetings with K-State, winning by 19, 15, 4 and 10 points, or by an average of 12 points per game. 

Kansas State is 2-8 ATS after having won four of its last five games this season.  Bob Huggins is 31-15 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more in all games he has coached.  The Mountaineers are 10-2 at home this season and winning by 21.7 points per game.  WVU is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  Bet West Virginia Saturday. 

15* Texas Tech/TCU ESPNU Saturday No-Brainer on TCU -3 

The TCU Horned Frogs need to get going if they want to make the NCAA Tournament.  They have done just that by beating West Virginia 82-73 at home and Oklahoma State 79-66 on the road in two of their last three games.  I think we are getting them at a cheap price at home here Saturday against Texas Tech. 

The Red Raiders have been overvalued for a few weeks now.  They are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They were fortunate to escape with a 73-71 home victory over Texas in overtime last time out.  In fact, each of their last four wins have come by 7 points or less and by a combined 15 points.  They are very close to being 0-7 in their last seven games overall. 

TCU is 11-2 at home this season and winning by 14.7 points per game.  Texas Tech is 1-3 on the road in Big 12 play, losing by 10 at Oklahoma, by 9 at Texas and by 18 at Iowa State. 

The Red Raiders are 0-6 ATS after having won 12 or more of their last 15 games over the past two seasons.  Texas Tech is 6-16 ATS in its last 22 road games off a close win by 3 points or less in Big 12 play.  Texas Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six Big 12 games.  The Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five Big 12 games.  Roll with TCU Saturday. 

15* Oregon State/Stanford Pac-12 Late-Night BAILOUT on Stanford -3.5 

The Stanford Cardinal come in undervalued tonight because they are riding a 3-game losing streak.  But they were an underdog in all three games against a brutal schedule.  They lost by 2 at home to Arizona, by 5 at USC and by 16 at UCLA. 

This recent skid has everyone forgetting that Stanford put together a 5-game winning streak in Pac-12 play prior to the losing streak.  They won four of those five games outright as underdogs.  The Cardinal are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall and easily the most underrated team in the Pac-12. 

Oregon State is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers tonight despite going just 1-4 in its last five games overall.  The Beavers are just 3-5 in Pac-12 play.  They don’t stand much of a chance of keeping this game close against a highly motivated Stanford squad tonight. 

Stanford is 17-2 straight up in its last 19 home meetings with Oregon State.  The Cardinal are 24-11 ATS in their last 35 home games off two or more consecutive losses.  Stanford is 11-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.  Roll with Stanford Thursday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Marshall -1.5 

The Marshall Thundering Herd are one of the best teams in Conference USA this season.  They are 5-3 SU & 6-2 ATS in conference action.  They have been grossly undervalued ever since head coach Dan D’Antoni took over a few years back. 

UTSA is just 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS in conference play this season.  The Roadrunners are 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.  That includes home losses to the likes of FIU and FAU, two teams that are much worse than Marshall. 

The Thundering Herd have crushed the Roadrunners in their last two meetings.  Marshall won 109-91 on the road in 2016 and 92-71 at home in 2017.  I see another blowout win coming for the Thundering Herd in their lone meeting this season. 

Marshall is 8-1 ATS when playing just its 2nd game in a week this season.  The Thundering Herd are 17-5 ATS off a road game over the last two seasons.  Marshall is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The Thundering Herd are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Roadrunners are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Take Marshall Thursday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Maryland +15 

This line is simply out of hand tonight because Purdue is the 3rd-ranked team in the country and has won a school-record 17 straight games coming in.  No question Purdue is the best team in the Big Ten, but it cannot be 15-point favorites against a solid Maryland squad tonight. 

That’s especially the case with Maryland being out for revenge from a 75-80 home loss to Purdue as 3.5-point underdogs in their first meeting this season.  Now they are 15-point underdogs in the rematch, a massive 11.5-point adjustment.  There is a ton of value with the Terrapins tonight. 

Purdue is 3-2 against Maryland in all meetings since the Terrapins joined the Big Ten in 2015.  But all three wins for the Boilermakers came by 5 points or less and by a combined 10 points overall.  Maryland has gotten healthy as the season has gone on and will be a tough out for any Big Ten team moving forward. 

The Terrapins are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games following a loss.  The Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning record.  Plays against home favorite of 10 points or more (Purdue) - after three straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers against opponent after five straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or fewer turnovers are 94-45 (67.6%) ATS since 1997.  Take Maryland Wednesday. 

15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia Tech +1 

Off four straight losses, the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets are grossly undervalued right now.  But they were underdogs in all four games with home losses to Virginia and Clemson, and road losses at UNC and Florida State.  They finally get a break in their schedule here with a winnable home game against Syracuse. 

This is far from one of Jim Boeheim’s best Syracuse teams.  The Orange come in overvalued following three straight victories, but two were against Pittsburgh and the other was at home against Boston College.  And they didn’t cover either game against Pitt. 

Syracuse has only played five true road games all season.  The Orange are just 2-3 in them with their two wins coming over Georgetown by 7 and Pitt by 5.  Georgetown is one of the worst teams in the Big East, while Pitt is the worst team in the ACC. 

Georgia Tech is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three home meetings with Syracuse despite being underdogs each time.  And the only loss was a 1-point loss as 4-point dogs.  The Orange are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 road games.  The Yellow Jackets are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games.  Syracuse is 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a win. 

Georgia Tech is 6-0 ATS off a cover where they lost straight up as an underdog over the last two seasons. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in home games off two or more consecutive losses over the last two years.  Georgia Tech is 9-1 ATS after a game where it made 78% or better from the free throw line over the last two years.  These three trends combine for a 21-1 system backing the Yellow Jackets.  Bet Georgia Tech Wednesday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Louisville +9.5 

The Virginia Cavaliers are in the ultimate letdown spot today.  They just ended a 17-game road losing streak at Duke with their first win since 1995 with a 65-63 win at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday.  It’s only human nature for them to suffer a letdown following such a monumental victory. 

Now the Cavaliers have to go up against an underrated Louisville team that will fight them for 40 minutes.  The Cardinals are 16-5 this season despite all the distractions with Rick Pitino.  They have played their best basketball of the season in conference play. 

Louisville is 6-2 SU & 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall.  Its only losses came by 5 at Clemson as 6-point underdogs and by 3 at Miami in overtime as 5-point dogs.  The Cardinals have upset both Florida State and Notre Dame on the road, while also crushing Virginia Tech, Pitt, Boston College and Wake Forest at home during this stretch. 

The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight ACC games.  Louisville is 4-0 ATS in its last four road games.  I think that win over Duke all but sealed the ACC title for Virginia as well, making it even more of a letdown spot.  Roll with Louisville Wednesday. 

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Texas A&M -5.5 

Texas A&M opened 11-1 this season when they were healthy.  But then the Aggies were hit hard by injuries and proceeded to go 2-7 in their last nine games overall.  Now the Aggies are fully healthy again and should get back to being that 11-1 team sooner rather than later. 

Texas A&M is coming off back-to-back road losses as LSU and Kansas, which is no big deal.  Now the Aggies return home tonight where they are 9-2 on the season.  Look for them to take out their frustration on the overrated Arkansas Razorbacks tonight. 

Arkansas comes in overvalued off three straight wins by a combined 8 points with two of those coming at home.  But Arkansas is just 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing by an average of 10.4 points per game.  I think they get blown out of the building tonight. 

The Razorbacks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The home team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Aggies are 4-1 ATS in their last five home meetings with Arkansas.  The Razorbacks are 4-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Roll with Texas A&M Tuesday. 

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma -6 

The Oklahoma Sooners are back to being undervalued finally after going 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.  They have lost three of their last four straight up, but all three were on the road to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and Alabama. 

Now Oklahoma returns home where it is a perfect 10-0 on the season, scoring 97.5 points per game and outscoring opponents by 18.3 points per game.  The Sooners have recent home wins over Northwestern by 26, Oklahoma State by 20, Texas Tech by 10, TCU by 5 and Kansas by 5. 

Now the Sooners should be able to blow out a struggling Baylor squad that is just 12-9 overall and 2-6 in Big 12 play.  This is one of the worst teams Baylor has had in quite some time.  The Bears are 2-7 in their last nine games overall with both of their wins coming at home.  Baylor is 0-6 SU & 2-4 ATS in true road games this season, losing by an average of 12.4 points per game. 

Oklahoma is 29-14 ATS in its last 43 home games after having lost two of its last three games.  The Sooners are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Oklahoma is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games following a loss.  The Sooners are 25-11-2 ATS in their last 38 meetings with Baylor.  Take Oklahoma Tuesday. 

15* Notre Dame/Duke ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Duke -14.5 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish caught a tough break when their best player Bonzi Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) was lost for the season on January 9th with a foot injury.  Then they were dealt another big blow when their second-best player Matt Farrell (15.7 ppg, 5.3 apg) suffered an ankle injury. 

Colson has missed the past seven games and Farrell has missed four games recently and both remain out.  Not to mention, they are playing without top 6th man D.J. Harvey (5.8 ppg), who has missed the past two games.  It’s no surprise that the Fighting Irish have struggled, going 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Now Notre Dame will be up against a motivated Duke team that is coming off a rare home loss to Virginia over the weekend.  Look for the Blue Devils to pour it on the Fighting Irish in this one.  Notre Dame simply won’t have the offensive punch without Colson, Farrell and Harvey to keep up with a Duke team that is scoring 90.3 points per game this season. 

Duke is 145-112 ATS in its last 257 games as a home favorite of 10 points or more.  The Blue Devils are 56-29 ATS in their last 85 home games with a total set of 140 to 149.5 points.  Duke is 176-134 ATS in its last 310 games following an ATS loss, including 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.  The Blue Devils are 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  Roll with Duke Monday. 

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Indiana +9 

The Indiana Hoosiers are improving rapidly in head coach Archie Miller’s first season in Bloomington.  They have gone 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. 

The Hoosiers have been very impressive at home of late.  Indeed, the Hoosiers are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  They now have the confidence to hang with a team of Purdue’s caliber. 

I think the Boilermakers come in overvalued due to their No. 3 national ranking.  They are starting to have to lay some big numbers, and it’s going to make it difficult for them to cover.  Asking them to win by double-digits on the road to beat us here is asking too much. 

Indiana is 29-16 ATS in all home games over the last three seasons.  Purdue is 7-22 ATS in its last 29 road games when playing against a team with a winning percentage from 51% to 60% after 15-plus games.  The Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Take Indiana Sunday. 

20* Villanova/Marquette FOX Sunday No-Brainer on Marquette +8 

Marquette only lost 90-100 at Villanova as 16-point underdogs in their first meeting this season on January 6th.  Now the Golden Eagles are catching 8 points at home in the rematch and will be out for revenge today. 

We saw last year the Golden Eagles pull off their biggest win of the season at home over Villanova.  They beat the Wildcats 74-72 as 5-point home underdogs.  They have a very good home-court advantage as they are 9-3 on their home floor this year. 

Villanova being the No. 1 ranked team in the country puts a huge target on their backs.  It also has them overvalued because the betting public wants to back them, especially since they have covered three in a row coming in. 

Villanova is 3-11 ATS after having won 18 or more of their last 20 games over the past three seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six Sunday games.  The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following a loss.  Bet Marquette Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Virginia Tech +4 

It’s mind-blowing that the Fighting Irish are actually favored here Saturday against Virginia Tech.  They Fighting Irish are without their two best players in Bonzie Colson (21.4 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Matt Farrell (15.7 ppg, 5.3 apg).  They are also missing D.J. Harvey (5.8 ppg). 

All these injuries have really put the Fighting Irish behind the eight ball.  They are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall.  I really don’t understand how they can even be favored here, especially against a team that caliber of Virginia Tech. 

The Hokies come in undervalued after losing two of their last three.  But they righted the ship with an impressive 80-69 upset victory over UNC last time out.  And now they realize they need to win games like this against Notre Dame if they want to make the NCAA Tournament. 

Notre Dame is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home games after two straight games where it attempted 12 or fewer free throws.  The Hokies are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 games following an ATS win.  The Fighting Irish are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Buzz Williams is 9-1 ATS off two straight games where they made 10 or more 3-point shots as the coach of the Hokies.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.

15* Kentucky/West Virginia ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Kentucky +10 

When is the last time you remember Kentucky being a double-digit underdog under John Calipari?  I can’t recall it, and I certainly am going to take advantage today and back the Wildcats in this big underdog role against the WVU Mountaineers. 

I realize this isn’t one of Calipari’s best teams, but the Wildcats are still 15-5 and improving every day.  That’s the best part about his teams is that they improve as much as anyone in the country over the course of the season with all of the freshmen he plays.  Kentucky does have five losses this year, but four have come by 8 points or fewer. 

It’s not like West Virginia is playing well enough right now to warrant being a double-digit favorite, either.  The Mountaineers are 1-3 in their last four games overall.  They lost at Texas Tech and TCU, while also getting upset by Kansas at home.  I think they will struggle with athletes the caliber of Kentucky’s here. 

The Mountaineers are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games vs. SEC opponents.  West Virginia is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Kentucky Saturday. 

20* Virginia/Duke CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Duke -4 

The ACC title is likely on the line when the Virginia Cavaliers (19-1, 8-0) visit the Duke Blue Devils (18-2, 6-2) at Cameron Indoor Stadium Saturday.  Being two games behind the Cavaliers already, the Blue Devils are looking at this as a must-win.  And given their past successes at home against Virginia, I have no doubt they get the win and cover tonight. 

The Blue Devils are 17-0 in their last 17 home meetings with the Cavaliers having not lost since 1995.  Duke hasn’t lost at Cameron Indoor in more than a full calendar year.  The Blue Devils are 10-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 29.4 points per game. 

Virginia has only played five true road games this season.  Their four wins came against VCU, VA Tech, Georgia Tech and Wake Forest.  They were favored in all four games.  In their toughest road game, they lost 61-68 at West Virginia as 4.5-point underdogs.  Now this will be their stiffest road test yet. 

Plays against road teams as an underdog or PK (Virginia) - an excellent defensive team allowing 63 or fewer points per game against an average defensive team (67-74 ppg) after allowing 50 points or less are 46-16 (74.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Duke Saturday. 

20* Big 12/SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia +8 

It’s time to ‘buy low’ on Georgia and ‘sell high’ on Kansas State as this spread has simply got out of hand here Saturday based on recent results.  We’ll gladly take advantage and back the Bulldogs as 8-point road underdogs here to the Wildcats. 

We’ll ‘sell high’ on Kansas State, which comes in 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  That recent success has the Wildcats way overvalued right now.  And this is a huge lookahead spot for Kansas State, which hosts Kansas on Monday.  Their only loss during this stretch came 72-73 at Kansas, so they will be looking ahead at getting revenge. 

Conversely, we’ll ‘buy low’ on Georgia, which is 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Bulldogs will be extra motivated for a win here Saturday and with the way they play defense, they are more than capable of pulling off this upset and hanging with the Wildcats. 

Georgia is 15-6 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Bulldogs are 7-0 ATS in road games off a loss over the last two years.  Georgia is 17-5 ATS in road games when playing a team with a winning record over the last two seasons.  The Wildcats are 1-7 ATS in their last eight non-conference games.  Kansas State is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Take Georgia Saturday. 

15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Wichita State -13.5 

It’s safe to say the Wichita State Shockers are going to be highly motivated for a victory tonight following back-to-back upset losses to SMU at home and Houston on the road.  Look for them to put forth one of their best efforts of the season now at home against UCF. 

The UCF Knights are extremely vulnerable moving forward.  They just lost arguably their most important player in center Tacko Fall (11.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 2.0 bpg) to a season-ending shoulder injury last time out.  A.J. Davis (10.4 ppg, 8.4 rpg) is nursing an ankle injury as well.  The Knights are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, losing by 9 at UConn, by 11 at home to Cincinnati and barely escaping with a 71-69 victory as 9.5-point favorites over lowly South Florida. 

Wichita State is 34-17 ATS as a favorite of 10 or more points over the last two seasons.  The Shockers are 6-0 ATS versus poor offensive teams that score 64 or fewer points per game over the last three years.  Take Wichita State Thursday. 

15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Temple +13.5 

I really like the situation for the Temple Owls tonight.  They will be out for revenge from a 53-55 home loss to Cincinnati as 7.5-point underdogs on January 4th.  I backed the Owls with success in that game, and I’m backing them again tonight as they are catching a whopping 13.5 points on the road in the rematch. 

No team has played Cincinnati tougher than Temple in recent years.  Each of the last five meetings have been decided by 7 points or less.  The Owls are 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Temple is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Cincinnati. 

Plays on underdogs of 10 or more points (Temple) - revenging a close loss vs. opponent by 3 points or less against a team that is off two straight wins over conference opponents are 46-17 (73%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Temple Wednesday. 

20* Louisville/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami -4 

The Miami Hurricanes come in motivated for a victory after losing three of their last five to drop to 14-4 on the season.  But they are 6-1 at home this season and winning by 18.8 points per game.  Their only home loss came to Duke when they blew a double-digit second half lead. 

I think Louisville comes into this game getting too much respect from oddsmakers for going 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  Now the Cardinals are only catching 4 points on the road to a team that is clearly better than them in Miami, and I have no doubt that will show on the court tonight. 

Louisville is 9-19 ATS in road games off a win over the last three seasons.  The Cardinals are 2-10 ATS in road games versus teams who commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the past three seasons.  Jim Larranaga is 17-8 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less or PK as the coach of Miami.  Larranaga is 11-3 ATS after allowing 80 points or more as the coach of the Hurricanes.  Take Miami Wednesday. 

15* Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE DAY on Bradley -1 

The Bradley Braves are one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley this season.  And getting them as only 1-point home favorites against the Missouri State Bears is a gift from oddsmakers here tonight. 

Bradley is a perfect 10-0 SU & 7-0 ATS at home this season.  The Braves are outscoring their opponents by 15.8 points per game at home this year. 

Missouri State is 1-4 straight up in its last five true road games.  It has lost at Drake, Evansville, Illinois State and Oral Roberts, four teams that aren’t as good as this Bradley squad. 

The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Braves are 22-4-2 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Take Bradley Tuesday. 

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Georgia -1.5 

The Georgia Bulldogs come in highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost three of their last four with three of those four on the road.  Now they return home tonight and will be looking to get back in the win column.  Georgia is 8-1 at home this season. 

The Arkansas Razorbacks are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  The Razorbacks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.  Arkansas is just 2-4 SU in its last six games with its two victories coming by a combined 6 points at home over Missouri and Ole Miss.  Three of the four losses came by double-digits with a 15-point loss at Florida, a 21-point home loss to LSU and an 11-point road loss at Auburn. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 straight up in the last eight meetings.  The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The Razorbacks are 0-8 ATS in their last eight SEC games.  The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.  Georgia is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games following a loss.  Arkansas is 3-10 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Georgia Tuesday. 

15* UNC/VA Tech ESPN Monday No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +5 

It’s safe to say the Virginia Tech Hokies come into this game with the UNC Tar Heels highly motivated for a victory.  They have lost two straight to Louisville and FSU and four of their last six games overall.  They need a signature win at home here tonight to stem the tide. 

The Tar Heels come in a bit overvalued following four straight victories.  But the four came against Boston College, an injury-ravaged Notre Dame, Clemson and Georgia Tech with three of the four at home.  But the Tar Heels have only covered one of their last seven games overall. 

Virginia Tech is 10-2 at home this season, winning by an average of nearly 20 points per game.  The Hokies are scoring 88.2 points per game and shooting a ridiculous 54.2% from the floor at home.  They are scoring 85.6 points per game and shooting 52.1% on the season, so this team is loaded offensively. 

The Hokies are 12-3 ATS as a home underdog or PK over the last three seasons.  Virginia Tech is 11-1 ATS when playing with one or less days’ rest over the last three seasons.  The Tar Heels are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six road games.  The Hokies are 24-10-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.  The Hokies are 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings with UNC.  Roll with Virginia Tech Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa PK 

The Northern Iowa Panthers got off to a tough start in Missouri Valley play.  They opened 0-5 with four of their losses coming by 7 points or less.  But they have turned the corner here of late, winning and covering back-to-back games against Drake and Valparaiso. 

Now Northern Iowa will be out for revenge for one of those close losses, a 53-56 home loss to Southern Illinois.  I look for the Panthers to get their revenge today and beat the Salukis for the 5th time in the last 6 meetings. 

Southern Illinois is not playing well at all right now.  The Salukis are 2-4 SU & 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  Their two wins both came at home by a combined 6 points with a 2-point win over Evansville and a 4-point win over Illinois State. 

Northern Iowa is 13-4 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last three seasons.  Southern Illinois is 1-7 ATS after giving up 9 or fewer offensive rebounds in two straight games this season.  The Salukis are 2-8 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  Bet Northern Iowa Sunday. 

15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Pacific +9.5 

St. Mary’s is in a massive letdown spot here Saturday.  The Gaels are coming off an upset 74-71 win at Gonzaga as 7.5-point underdogs.  They exorcised some demons from losing all three meetings with the Zags last year. 

Now they’re up against a massively underrated Pacific team that will be upset-minded.  Pacific has gone 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall, including an upset win over BYU.  The only loss came at St. Mary’s 56-74 on January 4th, so they will also be in revenge mode here tonight. 

St. Mary’s is 4-22 ATS in its last 26 games off three consecutive road games.  Pacific is 7-0 ATS off a conference game this season.  The Gaels are 0-4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Bet Pacific Saturday. 

15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Providence -2 

Providence will be out for revenge from a 64-83 road loss at Creighton back on December 31st.  But Providence was way banged up for that game, and now they are almost fully healthy.  Look for them to get that revenge at home this time around. 

Creighton is just 1-3 in its last four true road games.  Providence is 9-2 at home this season, recently beating the likes of Butler by 10 and Xavier by 9. 

Providence is 9-1 ATS off an upset win as an underdog over the last two seasons.  The Friars are 6-0 ATS in home games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more over the last three seasons.  Providence is 8-1 ATS when revenging a loss where opponent scores 75 points or more over the last two seasons.  The Bluejays are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS win.  Roll with Providence Saturday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Seton Hall -2 

Seton Hall comes in motivated for a victory after losing two of its last three games.  Both were on the road, and now the Pirates are at home today for a big matchup with Xavier. 

Seton Hall is a perfect 11-0 at home this season, winning by 16.4 points per game on average.  Xavier is 0-2 in its last two true road games, losing at Providence by 9 and Villanova by 24. 

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series.  The home team is a perfect 7-0 SU in the last seven meetings.  Seton Hall is also a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings, and 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.  Take Seton Hall Saturday. 

20* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia Tech -1.5 

We are getting a massive discount on the Virginia Tech Hokies at home here Saturday.  They basically just have to win the game to cover, and I think they will do just that against Florida State. 

Virginia Tech is 10-1 at home this season with its only loss coming to Virginia.  Florida State’s true colors have shown in ACC play as the Seminoles are just 2-4 SU & 2-3-1 ATS so far with their only two wins coming at home over UNC by 1 and Syracuse in OT. 

The Seminoles are 0-3 in their last three true road games.  FSU is 1-8 ATS in January road games over the last three seasons.  The Hokies are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 home games.  The home team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Virginia Tech Saturday. 

15* Pac-12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Utah -7 

It’s safe to say the Utah Utes will be highly motivated for a victory at home here tonight.  They got off to a 10-3 start this season but have lost four straight since.  They will be laying it all on the line to get a victory here at home against Washington tonight. 

It’s easy to see why they have lost four in a row.  They had to play arguably the two best teams in the Pac-12 in Arizona and Arizona State at home, while also losing on the road to the next two best teams in the conference in UCLA and USC.  So their losing streak can be attributed to a brutal schedule as they have been an underdog in all four games. 

Now in comes one of the worst teams in the Pac-12 in Washington tonight.  This is a Washington team that is 3-2 in conference play, but two of the wins came against two of the worst teams in Washington State and California.  They just lost by 9 at home to Stanford and were beaten by 21 at UCLA.  I don’t expect them to be able to hang with the motivated Utes tonight. 

Utah has owned Washington, going 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings.  The Utes have won all seven meetings by 5 points or more.  They won their two meetings last season by 22 and 24 points.  They have each of their last four home meetings with Washington by an average of 15.5 points per game. 

Utah is 19-8 ATS in its last 27 following four or more consecutive losses.  Washington is 6-20-1 ATS in its last 27 games following a loss.  The Utes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games.  The Huskies are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings.  Roll with Utah Thursday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +8 

Over the past two seasons, Josh Pastner and Georgia Tech have pulled some huge upsets on a regular basis at home.  They Their most recent this season have been wins over Miami and Georgia Tech in their last two ACC home games.  They are more than capable of hanging with Virginia tonight. 

The Yellow Jackets are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The key to their resurgence has been leading scorer Josh Okogie (18.8 ppg, 5.2 rpg), who missed eight games earlier this season.  Second-leading scorer Tadric Jackson (13.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg) also missed three games earlier.  But now the Yellow Jackets are fully healthy and playing their best basketball of the season. 

Virginia has won eight in a row coming in, which has them overvalued.  But they have benefited from playing seven of their last eight games at home with their only road win coming at Virginia Tech.  They lost their previous road game at West Virginia and have played just three true road games all season, also winning at VCU by 9. 

Georgia Tech is 11-1 ATS after three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers over the last two seasons.  The Yellow Jackets are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games.  Georgia Tech is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 ACC games.  The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Take Georgia Tech Thursday. 

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton -4 

Creighton doesn’t have to wait long to get revenge from an 84-90 road loss at Seton Hall on December 28th in their Big East opener.  The Bluejays blew a 53-42 halftime lead and have not forgotten.  Look for them to have their revenge against the Pirates at home this time around. 

Creighton has one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  The Bluejays are 11-0 SU & 7-3 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 93.5 points per game and shooting 54.2% at home this year. 

Seton Hall has only played four true road games this season and has gone 2-2 straight up.  The Pirates have lost two of their last three road games in ugly fashion.  They lost 64-84 as 1-point favorites at Marquette and 65-71 as 8.5-point favorites at Rutgers.  This will be their toughest challenge yet on the road this season. 

Creighton is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 home games off three or more consecutive unders.  The Bluejays are 6-0 ATS off an ATS loss this season.  Creighton is 26-13 ATS in its last 39 home games when revenging a same season loss.  The Bluejays are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following an ATS loss.  The Bluejays are 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU loss.  Bet Creighton Wednesday. 

15* MVC PLAY OF THE DAY on Valparaiso +8 

The Valparaiso Crusaders don’t have to wait long to avenge their 50-67 home loss to Missouri State back on December 31st.  They were banged up back then and now they are much healthier.  And they’re catching 8 points on the road to the Bears this time around. 

Missouri State is 4-2 in conference play this season, but three of the four wins came by 7 points or less.  They aren’t blowing teams out, and that 17-point win over Valpo earlier was the aberration.  I think this rematch goes right down to the wire tonight.  The Crusaders are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. 

Valparaiso is 22-10 ATS in its last 32 games when revenging a loss where they scored less than 60 points. Missouri State is 9-20 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  The Bears are 0-6 ATS in home games after having lost two of their last three games over the past two seasons.  Missouri State is 21-43 ATS in its last 64 games off a conference home win.  Roll with Valparaiso Wednesday. 

15* AAC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tulane +7.5 

Head coach Mike Dunleavy has injected life into this Tulane Green Wave basketball program.  This is one of the most improved teams in the country at 11-6 on the season.  I like the value we are getting with the Green Wave catching 7.5 points at home to Houston. 

Houston is also an improved team at 14-3 under Kelvin Sampson.  But I think this is a tough spot for the Cougars, who have only had two days to prepare for Tulane.  And they have a rematch coming up with Wichita State on Saturday, and I can’t help but think they will be looking ahead to that huge matchup. 

Tulane comes in undervalued off back-to-back losses at Memphis and at home to UConn.  But just before those two losses, they upset SMU 73-70 as 8.5-point home dogs and Temple 85-75 as 10-point road dogs.   

The Green Wave are 8-2 at home this season.  The Cougars are 5-14 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Green Wave are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a double-digit home loss.  Houston is 0-10 ATS vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game over the last two seasons.  Bet Tulane Wednesday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Florida -6 

The Florida Gators are coming off an upset road loss at Ole Miss last time out.  That ended a six-game winning streak.  Look for the Gators to come back highly motivated for a victory at home tonight against the Arkansas Razorbacks. 

This Arkansas team is not playing well at all right now and is extremely vulnerable.  The Razorbacks have lost three of their last four games coming in with their only win coming by 2 points at home against Missouri.  They lost by 21 at home to LSU the game before.  The Razorbacks are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall. 

Florida is 11-0 straight up in all home meetings with Arkansas dating back to 1997.  Arkansas is 4-15 ATS in its last 19 road games after scoring 65 points or less in two straight games.  Florida is 11-3 ATS when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) over the last two seasons.  The Razorbacks are 1-7 ATS vs. very good teams who outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game this season.  Arkansas is 0-6 ATS in its last six SEC games.  Take Florida Wednesday. 

15* Clemson/UNC ACC Tuesday No-Brainer on Clemson +7.5 

To say the Clemson Tigers will be motivated for a victory tonight against the UNC Tar Heels would be a massive understatement.  One of the most shocking streaks in college basketball history is on the line tonight.  The Tar Heels are 58-0 against Clemson in Chapel Hill all-time, which marks the longest home winning streak against any opponent in NCAA history. 

But this is the first time in a long time that Clemson may actually have the better team.  The Tigers are 15-2 this season and have been underrated for much of the year, going 9-5 ATS in their lined games.  Even Roy Williams said this is the best team that Brad Brownell has probably ever had at Clemson, and I agree. 

UNC has been extremely vulnerable this season.  The Tar Heels have recent road losses to Florida State and Virginia, and they were upset by Wofford at home in late December.  They only beat Notre Dame 69-68 on the road last time out, a Fighting Irish team that was paying without their two best players.  They also have a recent narrow 73-69 home win as 14-point favorites over Wake Forest. 

Clemson is 6-0 ATS after having won six or seven of its last eight games this season.  The Tar Heels are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games following a win.  UNC is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six vs. ACC opponents.  The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Clemson Tuesday. 

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston College +3.5 

Florida State is coming off a 101-90 (OT) victory at home over Syracuse on Saturday.  Now the Seminoles will be playing their 3rd game in 6 days and won’t have much left in the tank.  Making matters worse for them is that their leading scorer in Terrance Mann (15.1 ppg) is doubtful to play tonight with a concussion. 

Boston College has been one of the more underrated teams in the country this season at 12-6 on the year.  They have been especially tough at home, going 10-1 while beating Duke as a 15-point underdogs.  The Eagles’ only home loss came by a final of 70-74 as 5.5-point underdogs to Clemson. 

Florida State is 2-10 ATS in road games off two consecutive conference games over the last two seasons. The Seminoles are 1-9 ATS in road games versus teams who are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game after 15-plus games over the last three seasons.  The home team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Boston College Monday. 

15* CBB Sunday Undervalued Underdog on Indiana State +10 

The Indiana State Sycamores are simply catching too many points today against the Missouri State Bears.  They have opened 3-2 in MVC play with their only losses coming by 3 points at Illinois State and by 3 points at home to Drake. 

Missouri State is also 3-2 in MVC play, losing back-to-back games to Illinois State and Evansville.  In their two home MVC games they have only won by 5 and 7 points.  So it’s not like they are blowing teams out. 

This has been a very closely-contested series in recent years.  Indeed, each of the last five meetings have been decided by 9 points or less, including four by 6 points or fewer.  Two of those games went to overtime. 

The underdog is 16-4-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings.  Missouri State is 9-19 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons.  Paul Lusk is 2-9 ATS as a favorite of 10 points or more as the coach of Missouri State.  Bet Indiana State Sunday. 

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -2 

This is a very tough spot for Texas.  The Longhorns just found out their best player Andrew Jones has Leukemia before the TCU game on Wednesday.  They laid it all on the line for him and came away with a miraculous 99-98 victory in double-overtime. 

TCU missed a wide open layup in the second OT as time expired, making you wonder if the power’s that be made sure that Texas won that game.  Off such an emotional win, and still without their best player in Jones who averages 13.5 points, shoots 52.8% from the field and 47.5% from 3-point range, I expect a big mental letdown tonight against Oklahoma State. 

The Cowboys will be motivated for a win after opening 1-3 in Big 12 play.  Two of those losses were on the road to Oklahoma and Kansas State.  The Cowboys are 9-2 at home this season with their only two losses coming to two of the best teams in the country in West Virginia and Wichita State. 

The home team is 7-2 straight up in the last nine meetings.  Oklahoma State is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings, including 4-1-1 ATS in the last six home meetings.  The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win.  The Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.  Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.