|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-08-13||Pittsburgh v. Georgetown -2||73-45||Loss||-106||22 h 51 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Georgetown Big East No-Brainer on Georgetown -2
This line is an absolute gift from oddsmakers. Georgetown is one of the most underrated teams in the country and it should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight against the overrated Pittsburgh Panthers.
Georgetown is off to a 10-2 start this season. Its only losses have come against then-No. 1 Indiana in overtime on a neutral court as a 9.5-point dog and at Marquette 48-49 as a 3-point dog. Off that loss to Marquette Saturday, I look for the Hoyas to be hungry to bounce back at home.
Pitt played a very soft schedule before opening Big East play, racing out to a 12-1 start. However, it was favored by 6 over Cincinnati in its Big East opener, losing 61-70 at home. It then went on the road Saturday and fell at Rutgers 62-67 as a 7-point dog. Once again, this team is overvalued tonight.
Georgetown is a perfect 8-0 at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 13.8 points per game at home this year. It is limiting its opponents to 51.1 points per game on 37.0 percent shooting at home.
The Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. The Hoyas are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Georgetown Tuesday.
|01-08-13||Drake +20.5 v. Creighton||Top||61-91||Loss||-106||20 h 27 m||Show|
20* CBB Tuesday Night Line Mistake on Drake +20.5
The oddsmakers have missed their mark badly in this game between Drake and Creighton. The Bulldogs are clearly undervalued headed into this one as a 20.5-point underdog. I like them to give the overvalued Blue Jays a run for their money in this one.
Drake is just 6-8 on the season against a very tough schedule. Its eight losses have come against quality opponents in Detroit (by 6), California (by 3), Xavier (by 4), St. Mary's (by 15), Iowa State (by 9), Bradley (by 9), Wichita State (by 12) and Missouri State (by 12). As you can see, none of its eight losses came by more than 15 points.
Creighton is overvalued due to its 14-1 start and No. 13 ranking in the country. There's no question that this is a very good team that will be a tough out in the NCAA Tournament, but it has created expectations for itself due to this fast start that it cannot live up to.
I faded Creight on Saturday by taking Indiana State +14.5 with success, and I'll do the same tonight with Drake. Only four times this season have the Blue Jays won by more than 20 points. Those four games were against Presbyterian, Longwood and St. Josephs and Nebraska.
Drake has played Creighton tough over the last several years. Each of the last 13 meetings dating back to 2006 were decided by 17 points or less with Drake actually winning five of those outright. This makes for a perfect 13-0 system backing the Bulldogs pertaining to tonight's line of 20.5.
This play falls into a system that is 41-11 (78.8%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home teams as a favorite or pick (CREIGHTON) - off 2 straight wins against conference rivals against opponent off 2 consecutive home losses of 10 points or more.
This play falls into another system that is 47-13 (78.3% ATS) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 20 or more points (DRAKE) - off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival against opponent off a win against a conference rival. Take Drake Tuesday.
Note: I noticed that Drake has been bet down to +16.5 in some places since I posted this pick Tuesday night. I still recommend Drake at +16.5
|01-06-13||Syracuse v. South Florida +8.5||55-44||Loss||-106||12 h 21 m||Show|
15* Syracuse/South Florida Big East ANNIHILATOR on South Florida +8.5
The Syracuse Orange (13-1) are in a big letdown spot Sunday. They are coming off a 78-53 home victory over Rutgers in their Big East opener. That gave head coach Jim Boeheim is 903rd career victory, moving him past Bob Knight for 2nd on the all-time Division 1 wins list. It's only human nature for his players to have a letdown after getting him such a big win.
I believe South Florida is a good enough team to beat Syracuse even without a letdown by the Orange, but the spot makes the Bulls a must-play today. South Florida is off to a 9-3 start this season to pick up right where it left off last year as an NCAA Tournament team.
The Bulls remain underrated this season. They play tremendous defense, limiting opponents to just 60.2 points/game and 39.0 percent shooting. They have four players averaging double digits scoring, including returning starters Anthony Collins (10.2 PPG, 7.8 APG) and Victor Rudd (11.2 PPG, 7.8 RPG).
This will be just the 2nd true road game for Syracuse this season. Its first resulted in a 91-82 victory at Arkansas as an 8.5-point favorite on November 30th. That's a big reason why this team is so overvalued right now because it has done almost all of its damage at home against very weak competition.
Syracuse is a tired team right now as this will be its 3rd game in 7 days, and its 4th game in 9 days. The Orange are 0-7 ATS in road games when playing their 3rd game in a week over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. USF only lost by 8 points at Syracuse last season as a 14-point underdog. I like them to stay within 8 at home this time around. Take South Florida Sunday.
|01-05-13||Northern Iowa +9.5 v. Illinois State||70-60||Win||100||19 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Northern Iowa +9.5
The Northern Iowa Panthers should not be catching this many points Saturday night against the Illinois State Redbirds. The Panthers have won eight of their last 10 meetings with the Redbirds, losing only once by more than 9.5 points.
Northern Iowa is undervalued right now due to losing four of its last five games overall. However, it has been an underdog in five of its last six games, clearly playing a difficult schedule. Its losses have come against Iowa, UNLV, Wichita State and Indiana State. It even beat St. Mary's 82-73 and George Mason 82-77 despite being an underdog in both games during this stretch.
Illinois State has lost its last two with a 75-77 setback at Indiana State, and a 72-79 drubbing at home at the hands of Creighton. Off such a tough loss to the Blue Jays, who are picked to win the MVC this season, I expect the Redbirds to suffer a hangover from that defeat.
Northern Iowa is 8-1 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings in this series. This one will go right down to the wire folks. Roll with Northern Iowa Saturday.
|01-05-13||Utah +18.5 v. Arizona||Top||57-60||Win||100||16 h 26 m||Show|
20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Utah +18.5
The Arizona Wildcats are way overvalued right now due to their perfect 13-0 start this season. They got away with murder in a 92-83 home win in overtime against Colorado on Thursday. They erased a double-digit deficit in the second half, and Colorado hit a game-winning jumper at the end of regulation that was eventually called off, though most would argue it should have counted.
Arizona is feeling overconfident right now as it continues to win close games. It had beaten San Diego State 68-67 prior to that overtime victory over Colorado. I wouldn't be surprised to see this underrated Utah team pull off the upset, but I'll take the points for some insurance.
Utah is a much better team than it is getting credit for. It is certainly better than its 8-5 record would indicate. ALL FIVE of its losses have come by 5 points or less this season. That includes a 58-61 loss at BYU as a 12.5-point underdog, and a 54-55 loss at Arizona State as an 8-point dog. The Utes are 8-2 ATS in all lines games this season.
Arizona is 0-6 ATS in home games off a no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in home games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 12-0 system that has not lost in three years. Take Utah Saturday.
|01-05-13||Rice +16 v. Harvard||62-92||Loss||-106||15 h 25 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Rice +16
The Rice Owls are catching way too many points Saturday against the Harvard Crimson in this one. Rice is an ever-improving team under former UCLA head coach Ben Braun. I know it is just 3-9 on the season, but it is an impressive 4-1 ATS in its lined games as it has been undervalued all year.
Its lined games have been against some solid competition, including a 63-77 loss at Temple as a 26-point underdog, and a 41-57 loss at Texas as an 18-point underdog. It also lost to Drexel 47-55 as a 13-point dog, and 63-65 to TCU as a 4-point dog.
Harvard is in for a big letdown in this one. It let a big lead slip away at St. Mary's last time out, falling 69-70 as a 12-point road underdog. The Gaels were playing a second of a back-to-back, so they clearly weren't on their game. I look for the Crimson to suffer a hangover from that crushing defeat.
Harvard hasn't been prone to blowing teams out, either. It is 7-5 this season with just one of those wins coming by more than 16 points. It has a 15-point home win over MIT, a 7-point home loss to Vermont, a 9-point home win over Fordham, a 1-point home win over Boston, and a 7-point home win over Holy Cross, falling to cover the spread in any of those five contests.
This play falls into a system that is 29-8 (78.4%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (RICE) - after allowing 65 points or less 4 straight games against opponent after a close loss by 3 points or less. Also, the Crimson are 0-6 ATS in home games after 3 consecutive non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. Take Rice Saturday.
|01-05-13||Indiana St +14 v. Creighton||66-79||Win||100||14 h 25 m||Show|
15* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State +14
The Indiana State Sycamores are showing excellent value as a 14-point underdog to the Creighton Blue Jays Saturday. Indiana State is a much better team than it is getting credit for in this one.
The Sycamores are off to a 9-4 start this season with their four losses coming against quality opponents in UCLA, New Mexico, San Diego State and Morehead State as they were an underdog in all four contests. Three of those losses have come by 9 points or less. What's most impressive about their 9-4 start is the fact that they have been an underdog in nine of their ten lined games this season, going a superb 7-3 ATS.
Creighton is overvalued due to its 13-1 start. It is coming off a huge win at Illinois State by a final of 79-72 as a 1.5-point favorite, setting it up for a big letdown spot tonight. The Blue Jays may win this game, but it won't be by more than 14 points.
The Sycamores are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Indiana State is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games overall. The Sycamores are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win. Indiana State is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These four trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Sycamores. Bet Indiana State Saturday.
|01-03-13||Idaho v. San Jose St -2.5||64-55||Loss||-109||10 h 9 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on San Jose State -2.5
The San Jose State Spartans are not getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers tonight. As only a 2.5-point home favorite, I expect them to roll right over the Idaho Vandals Thursday.
San Jose State is off to a solid 7-5 start this season. What is most impressive about this start is the fact that it is 4-1 in true road games with its only loss coming at Kansas by a final of 57-70 as a 27.5-point underdog. That game really showed what this team is capable of. They also have a solid home win over Weber State 68-67 as a 2.5-point dog.
Idaho is simply not a very good team at 5-6 on the season. Its only wins have come against Wisconsin-Green Bay, Cal Davis, Eastern Washington, Walla Walla and Seattle. The Vandals are just 2-4 on the road this season, and they have lost every game they have played against a respectable opponent.
San Jose State is 20-6 ATS after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls since 1997. The Spartans are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games overall. They want revenge from two losses to Idaho by 8 and 6 points last season. I believe they get it tonight in blowout fashion. Take San Jose State Thursday.
|01-03-13||Wisc-Milwaukee +18 v. Detroit||59-74||Win||100||7 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +18
At 4-10 on the season, the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers are certainly undervalued heading into this showdown with Detroit. The Panthers are also 0-8 on the road this year, where they are getting outscored by an average of 15.5 points/game.
Detroit is overvalued due to its 8-5 start which has included wins in six of its last seven games with its only loss coming at Syracuse. The Titans are also 7-0 at home this season where they are outscoring opponents by 15.3 points/game.
A closer look shows that Detroit only has two wins this season by more than 16 points. Those were at home against Northern Michigan (88-53) and Rochester College (102-67), two games where there wasn't a point spread set because they were expected to blow them out.
Only three of Wisconsin-Milwaukee's 10 losses this season have come by more than 16 points. One was a recent 21-point loss at Wisconsin in their last road game. If they can stay within 21 of the Badgers on the road, I have no doubt they can stey within 17 of Detroit away from home.
Detroit is 0-7 ATS in home games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons. The Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Thursday.
|01-02-13||UTEP +10.5 v. Colorado St||58-62||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on UTEP +10.5
The UTEP Miners should not be catching double-digits against the Colorado State Rams Wednesday. UTEP comes in playing its best basketball of the season having won three straight and five of six overall. Its only loss during this stretch came by a final of 60-62 to a very good UNLV team as a 6.5-point underdog.
Colorado State is off to a very impressive 11-2 start this season, but as a result it is way overvalued heading into this contest Wednesday. It has won five straight, but those five wins have come against North Florida, CS-Bakersfield, Portland, Virginia Tech and Adams State. The Rams will certainly be seeing a step up in competition tonight.
UTEP is a perfect 6-0 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 80%) over the last 2 seasons. UTEP is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games overall. Colorado State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Bet UTEP Wednesday.
|01-02-13||La Salle v. Miami (Fla) -6||59-76||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Miami -6
The Miami Hurricanes will be very hungry for a win Wednesday when they host LaSalle. They have lost back-to-back games to Arizona and Indiana State on neutral courts to drop to 8-3 after a hot 8-1 start. I have no doubt they get back on track with a blowout home victory tonight.
Miami is 5-0 SU & 3-0 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by 15.6 points/game at home this year. That includes a 67-59 victory over Michigan State and a 77-62 triumph over Detroit. LaSalle has played one of the easiest schedules you will ever see, and as a result it is overvalued due to its 9-2 start.
LaSalle is 11-24 ATS after having won 4 of its last 5 games since 1997. The Hurricanes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. Miami is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Hurricanes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Miami is 41-17-1 ATS in its last 59 non-conference game. Roll with the Hurricanes Wednesday.
|01-02-13||Missouri State +16 v. Evansville||59-62||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on Missouri State +16
The Missouri State Bears are a much better team than their 3-10 record would indicate. They should not be catching 15 points to the Evansville Purple Aces tonight. All 10 of their losses have come by 20 points or less, so they have yet to get really crushed. The Bears come in with confidence after beating Southern Illinois 70-59 in as a 5-point dog in their Missouri Valley opener on December 30th.
Meanwhile, Evansville is reeling after back-to-back losses to Butler and Creighton by a combined 25 points. It is just 7-6 on the season with few blowout wins on its resume. It has beaten Oakland City, Miami Ohio and Tennessee Tech by more than 15 points, but that's not saying much. The Purple Aces also beat Yale by 10, Western Illinois by 5, Tennessee Tech by 12 and Alabama State by 13. I believe Missouri State is better than every team that Evansville has beaten.
This play falls into a system that is 156-99 (61.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (MISSOURI ST) - off an upset win as an underdog, a bad team, winning 20% to 40% of their games on the season. Take Missouri State Wednesday.
|01-01-13||Yale +20.5 v. Iowa State||70-80||Win||100||7 h 19 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Yale +20.5
The Yale Bulldogs are showing awesome value as a 20.5-point underdog to the Iowa State Cyclones on Tuesday, January 1st. There's no question that some of these Iowa State players had a little too much fun last night, and they won't be wanting to play at 1:00 EST this afternoon.
This is a huge letdown spot for the Cyclones considering they open Big 12 play next. In fact, they will open conference action with Kansas, which is the team favored to win the Big 12. They will be overlooking Yale enough in this one to not cover the inflated number.
Yale is battle-tested coming in. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to Nevada (75-85) as a 12-point dog, and to St Mary's (62-78) as a 22-point dog. This team is certainly better than its 4-9 record would indicate as eight of its nine losses have come by 16 points or less.
This play falls into a system that is 30-6 (83.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (YALE) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. Bet Yale Tuesday.
|12-31-12||Gonzaga v. Oklahoma State -1.5||69-68||Loss||-106||9 h 55 m||Show|
15* Gonzaga/Oky State ESPN 2 ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma State -1.5
The Oklahoma State Cowboys are showing solid value as a small home favorite over the Gonzaga Bulldogs tonight. This is a team that is 10-1 on the season with solid neutral court wins over Tennessee (62-45) and NC State (76-56) already.
Oklahoma State is 7-0 SU & 5-1 ATS at home this season. It is outscoring opponents by a whopping 21.7 points/game at home this year. It has been playing tremendous defense this season, limiting opponents to 55.5 points/game and 35.8% shooting overall.
Gonzaga is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games over the last 3 seasons. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in home games after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS in home games after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. These four trends combine for a 28-1 (97%) system backing the Cowboys. Bet Oklahoma State Monday
|12-29-12||Ohio v. Oklahoma -3||63-74||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. Head coach Lon Kruger returned all five starters from last season, and this is going to be one of the best teams in the Big 12 this season.
Oklahoma is off to a solid 7-3 start, but it is coming off a one-point loss to SF Austin State. It will be highly motivated to bounce back from that loss, and it is undervalued because of it.
Ohio is 8-4 this season, but a closer look at its losses shows that this team clearly has problems. It has road losses to Robert Morris (76-84), Memhis (58-84) and UMass (76-85) as well as a home loss to Richmond.
The Bobcats are 0-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by 14.3 points/game. They don't have a good win yet this season. Ohio is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games. The Sooners are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-29-12||George Mason v. South Florida -2.5||57-61||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -2.5
The South Florida Bulls remain one of the most underrated teams in the country. They made a great run to the NCAA Tournament and actually won a game there last year, and they have several key pieces back from that team.
The Bulls have opened 7-3 this season while winning five of their last six contests. The includes a 6-2 mark at home where they are outscoring opponents by 8.1 points/game.
George Mason is just 7-4 on the year. It has losses to Bucknell, New Mexico, Maryland and Northern Iowa. It is coming off a big win at Richmond, but I believe that victory has it overvalued heading into this one.
South Florida is 16-4 ATS off a home win scoring 85 or more points since 1997. George Mason is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games following a S.U. win. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Bulls are 8-1 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 2 seasons. Take South Florida Saturday.
|12-29-12||Virginia Tech +10 v. Brigham Young||71-97||Loss||-106||4 h 57 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia Tech +10
This line is an overreaction from the results of last game for both teams. Virginia Tech suffered its worst loss of the season 52-88 to Colorado State, while BYU rolled over Northern Arizona 84-54.
At 9-3 on the season, I still believe Virginia Tech is one of the most underrated teams in the country. BYU doesn't really have a good win all season. It lost to Florida State (70-88), Notre Dame (68-78), Iowa State (62-83) and Baylor (64-79). The Cougars have no business being a double-digit favorite in this one.
BYU is 0-6 ATS in road games after a cover as a double digit favorite over the last 2 seasons. The Cougars are 4-17 ATS after a blowout win by 20 points or more over the last 3 seasons. BYU is 1-10 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons. Bet Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-22-12||Western Kentucky +21.5 v. Louisville||55-78||Loss||-106||11 h 47 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Western Kentucky +21.5
The Louisville Cardinals are in a huge letdown spot here Saturday in this neutral court showdown with Western Kentucky played at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, TN. They have arch rival Kentucky on deck and will be looking ahead to that contest.
Western Kentucky is a solid team at 8-4. It is coming off back-to-back road losses to a pair of very good teams in Murray State and Virginia Commonwealth. Those two games have the Hilltoppers battle-tested an hungry for a victory heading into this showdown with Louisville.
This play falls into a system that is 25-7 (78.1%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 20 or more points (W KENTUCKY) - after a blowout loss by 30 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 3 straight games. Bet Western Kentucky Saturday.
|12-22-12||Bradley v. Virginia Tech -2.5||65-66||Loss||-102||10 h 13 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Virginia Tech -2.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies are one of the most underrated teams in the entire country. They should be a heavier favorite tonight over Bradley in this neutral court showdown at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas, NV.
The Hokies opened 7-0 before losing two of their last three games to West Virginia and Georgia Southern by a combined 6 points. That loss to Southern last time out is really not sitting well with Virginia Tech, and I look for its players to take out their frustration on the Bradley Braves tonight.
While Virginia Tech has had six days to stew over that loss to Georgia Southern and prepare for Bradley, the Braves are working on little rest. This will be the 3rd game in 6 days for Bradley, which puts it at a huge disadvantage in rest and preparation.
The Braves are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. The Hokies are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss. The Hokies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. These three trends combine for a perfect 11-0 system backing the Hokies. Take Virginia Tech Saturday.
|12-21-12||Southern Methodist -2.5 v. Wagner||53-63||Loss||-106||9 h 41 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on SMU -2.5
The SMU Mustangs have been going under the radar this season. They are coached by former NBA great Larry Brown, who is quietly turning this program around. Brown has his Mustangs off to an 8-3 start this season.
Wagner doesn't have near the talent of SMU, and it should not be betting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its only wins this season have come against NC Central, Princeton, Hofstra and Coppin State. It is no match for the Mustangs in this one.
What is most impressive about SMU's 8-3 start is the fact that it has already played seven road games in its first 11 contests. It has won four of those road games, including a 73-47 win at Hofstra. As stated before, Wagner also played Hofstra, winning by a narrow margin of 52-44.
Common opponents are a good way to compare teams, and SMU is clearly the superior squad when you look at their meetings with Hofstra. This contest on a neutral court won't even be close folks. Take SMU Friday.
|12-20-12||Pepperdine +8 v. Tulane||54-69||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Pepperdine +8
The Pepperdine Waves are showing solid value as a 7.5-point underdog to the Tulane Green Wave Thursday. Pepperdine is one of the most underrated teams in the country, and I believe it has an excellent chance to win this game outright tonight.
Pepperdine is off to a 7-4 start this season under head coach Marty Wilson. Three of its four losses have come by 6 points or less, and the other was a 62-79 loss at California as a 20.5-point underdog. The biggest reason you can tell this team is underrated is the fact that it is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall.
Sure, Tulane is off to an 8-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have a good win on its resume. Its eight victories have all come at home against the likes of Bethune-Cookman, Nebraska-Omaha, Chicago State, Southern U, Loyola New Orleans, Navy, Nicholls State and Texas Pan Am. Just to give you an example of how easy of a schedule that is, there was only one line set in those eight games. Tulane has only had four lined games all season.
Tulane is 1-10 ATS in home games when playing their 2nd game in 3 days since 1997. The Green Wave are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Tulane is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. These five trends combine for a 35-2 (95%) system backing the Waves. Roll with Pepperdine Thursday.
|12-19-12||Mississippi v. Loyola Marymount +8.5||73-70||Win||100||10 h 1 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Late-Night BAILOUT on Loyola-Marymount +8.5
The Loyola-Marymount Lions are showing awesome value as a 7.5-point home underdog to the Ole Miss Rebels tonight. Ole Miss is way overvalued due to its 7-1 start to the season, while Loyola-Marymount is undervalued because of its mediocre 5-4 start.
It's easy to see why Ole Miss has gotten off to a 7-1 start considering it has played seven of its first eight games at home. Those seven home wins came against Mississippi Valley State, Coastal Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock, McNeese State, Lipscomb, East Tennessee State and Rutgers. Its only road game this season resulted in a 62-65 loss at Middle Tennessee State.
Loyola-Marymount has played a much more difficult schedule as six of its first nine games have been on the road. The Lions have gone 2-1 at home this season with their only loss coming to Long Beach State by three points with a final of 70-73.
I really like the balance of this team as they have four players averaging in double figures scoring, led by Anthony Ireland (21.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 4.8 APG). They also recently got guard Bruce English (10.0 PPG) back from injury.
Loyola-Marymount is 7-0 ATS in home games versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. The Lions are 6-0 ATS in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. These two trends combine for a perfect 13-0 system that has not lost over the last two years. Bet Loyola-Marymount Wednesday.
|12-19-12||The Citadel +20.5 v. St Bonaventure||57-97||Loss||-110||7 h 55 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday Undervalued Underdog on The Citadel +20.5
The Citadel Bulldogs are showing solid value as a 20.5-point underdog to St. Bonaventure tonight. The books have inflated this number quite a bit in a game that the Bonnies will not take seriously.
St. Bonaventure is off to a 6-3 start this season, but it really doesn't have an impressive win on its resume. It has been favored in all but two games this season, and it lost both of those contests as an underdog to Ohio and Arkansas State.
Off a huge 87-53 win over Cleveland State, and with a Top 25 opponent in NC State on deck Saturday, St. Bonaventure is in a big letdown spot. It will be looking ahead to that game against the Wolfpack, and it won't give The Citadel the attention it will take to cover this big spread tonight.
The Citadel is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games overall. The Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. This is simply a great situation to back the Bulldogs given the state of mind of St. Bonaventure coming in. Take The Citadel Wednesday.
|12-18-12||Winthrop +29 v. Ohio State||55-65||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Winthrop +29
This is a huge letdown spot for the No. 7 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-1). They have a home game against No. 9 Kansas on deck, and it's only human nature for them to look ahead to that game this Saturday.
Because Ohio State will be overlooking Winthrop in this one, I have no doubt that they'll be able to stay within 29 points tonight. The Buckeyes are becoming a bit bored after playing Northern Kentucky, Long Beach State, Savannah State and UNC-Asheville all at home in their last four contests.
The Buckeyes started to show signs of getting bored against UNC-Asheville last time out, only winning 90-72 despite coming in as a 25.5-point favorite. Wintrop is off to a 4-4 start this season with only one of its losses coming by more than 15 points. It is coming off an impressive 50-49 win at Ohio (7-3) last time out. Take Winthrop Tuesday.
|12-17-12||Detroit +20 v. Syracuse||68-72||Win||100||7 h 0 m||Show|
15* Detroit/Syracuse ESPN 2 Monday No-Brainer on Detroit +20
The Detroit Titans are showing excellent value tonight as a big road underdog to the Syracuse Orange. They have won four straight to improve to 6-4 on the season. Their only four losses have all come on the road to St. Johns, Miami, Bowling Green and Pittsburgh all by 15 points or less.
Syracuse is way overvalued right now due to its 9-0 start. Sure, it has gone 6-0 ATS in all lined games to this point, but that is another reason why this team is overvalued right now. The Orange have played an extremely easy schedule to this point with seven home games and only one true road game. This will be their toughest home game yet.
This play falls into a system that is 74-30 (71.2%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 or more points (DETROIT) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 9 or more consecutive wins.
Syracuse is 6-17 ATS in home games after 4 straight wins by 10 points or more since 1997. Detroit is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 vs. Big East opponents. The Orange are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Horizon League foes. Roll with Detroit Monday.
|12-15-12||Iona v. Georgia -1.5||81-78||Loss||-110||17 h 59 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Georgia -1.5
The Georgia Bulldogs are showing their best value of the season as only a 1.5-point favorite over Iona. I look for them to run away with this one by double-digits or close to it by game's end.
Georgia is undervalued right now due to its 2-6 start against a wicked schedule. It has faced the likes of Indiana, UCLA, South Florida and Georgia Tech all on the road for four of its losses. Battle-tested and hungry for a victory, the Bulldogs will be laying it all on the line at home tonight.
Iona is just 3-4 this season, and it should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. Its four losses have come to Quinnipiac, Illinois-Chicago, St. Peters and Rutgers. I wouldn't consider any of those four teams to be above-average, and the Gaels lost to them all.
Iona is 2-10 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% over the last 2 seasons. Georgia is 22-7 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less since 1997. The Gaels are 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The Bulldogs are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 Saturday games, and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take Georgia Saturday.
|12-15-12||Cincinnati v. Marshall +12.5||72-56||Loss||-112||14 h 60 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Marshall +12.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats are overvalued due to their 9-0 start. They should not be a double-digit favorite Saturday in what will essentially be a home game for Marshall at the Charleston Civic Center in Charleston, WV.
Cincinnati has played an extremely soft schedule this season. It has yet to play a true road games, and its two neutral court contests resulted in wins over both Iowa State and Oregon by 11 points or less.
Marshall is off to a 6-4 start this season with all four of its losses coming by 12 points or less. Two of those defeats came on the road against Villanova and West Virginia, which are two solid basketball programs. This is a Marshall team that returns three starters from a squad that beat Cincinnati 73-69 last year.
This play falls into a system that is 73-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (CINCINNATI) - after 9 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season. This trend really shows how it is profitable to fade overvalued teams that open the season on long winning streaks.
Marshall is a perfect 6-0 ATS vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. It is actually outscoring these top caliber teams by an average of 6.9 points/game over the last 3 years. Take Marshall Saturday.
|12-15-12||Texas A&M v. Oklahoma -3||54-64||Win||100||14 h 59 m||Show|
15* Texas A&M/Oklahoma ESPNU ANNIHILATOR on Oklahoma -3
The Oklahoma Sooners are one of the most underrated teams in the country this season. Head coach Lon Kruger, a proven winner throughout his career, has returned all five starters from last year's team. That includes three double-digit scorers.
The biggest reason this team is undervalued is due to its mediocre 6-2 start. However, both of those losses came on the road to Gonzaga and Arkansas, which are two teams that are better than they get credit for. This will essentially be a home game for the Sooners as it will be played at Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK.
Texas A&M is getting way too much respect due to its 7-1 start. It has played a much softer schedule than Oklahoma. Its only tough opponent came against Saint Louis on a neutral court, and the Aggies fell in blowout fashion 70-49. They have only played one true road game all season.
This play falls into a system that is 72-35 (67.3%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on any team (OKLAHOMA) - off a close road loss by 3 points or less, with all five starters returning from last season. The Aggies are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games. Roll with Oklahoma Saturday.
|12-11-12||West Virginia v. Duquesne +8.5||56-60||Win||100||7 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Duquesne +8.5
The Duquesne Dukes should not be catching 8.5 points at home tonight to the overrated West Virginia Mountaineers. This is a game I easily see them covering, and possibly winning outright Tuesday. West Virginia is in a big letdown spot following a 68-67 home victory over Virginia Tech last time out.
West Virginia is just 4-3 on the season, including a 50-84 loss to Gonzaga. It also lost to Davidson and Oklahoma on a neutral court. The Mountaineers lost their top two scorers from last season in Kevin Jones and Daryl Bryant, who combined for nearly 37 points/game. They have struggled without these two.
Duquesne is 5-4 on the season with its only losses coming to Albany (69-66), Georgetown (55-61), North Dakota State (43-57) and Pittsburgh (45-66). Those four teams have a combined 33-6 (85%) record on the season. That 55-61 loss at Georgetown really shows what this team is capable of because the Hoyas are one of the best teams in the country.
The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in this series. Duquesne hast lost its last two home meetings with West Virginia by finals of 61-64 and 63-68. The Mountaineeers are 6-15 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Duquesne Tuesday.
|12-09-12||Nebraska Omaha +30.5 v. Iowa State||65-93||Win||100||9 h 30 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska-Omaha +30.5
The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off their biggest game of the season. They lost to in-state rival Iowa 71-80 on Friday to fall to 6-3 on the season. Just two days later, I look for the Cyclones to suffer a hangover effect from that defeat.
Iowa State will have a very hard time getting up emotionally to play a Nebraska-Omaha team that is 2-8 on the season. The biggest reason for their poor record is the difficulty of their schedule. They have already played eight road games, including a 62-75 loss at Nebraska. After playing at Wisconsin last time out, this team will not be intimidated by Iowa State on the road.
This play falls into a system that is 87-35 (71.3%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against home favorites of 10 or more points (IOWA ST) - off a road loss, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a terrible team (<=20%).
This play falls into another system that is 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEBRASKA-OMAHA) - a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG) against a good defensive team (63-67 PPG), after allowing 75 points or more 2 straight games. Roll with Nebraska-Omaha Sunday.
|12-08-12||San Francisco v. Pacific -2.5||59-67||Win||100||19 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday West Coast BAILOUT on Pacific -2.5
Pacific should be a much heavier home favorite tonight over San Francisco. This is a much-improved Tigers team that returned all five starters from last year. I know they are just 4-4 on the year, but they have played a ridiculously tough schedule.
Pacific's four losses have come against Gonzaga, California, Oral Roberts and Fresno State. It has wins on a neutral court over both Xavier and St. Mary's despite being an 8-point dog against the Musketeers, and a 10-point dog against the Gaels. It also beat Nevada last time out at home.
San Francisco is simply overvalued due to its 5-1 start against a very soft schedule. It has played four of those six games at home, while losing to Stanford 62-74 on a neutral court, and winning at American in its only true road game. This road trip to Pacific will be the Dons' toughest game of the season to this point.
Pacific is a perfect 6-0 ATS in home games off a home win over the last 3 seasons. It is outscoring teams by an average of 11.9 points/game in this spot. The Dons are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 vs. Big West. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. WCC opponents. Roll with Pacific Saturday.
|12-08-12||Richmond -3 v. James Madison||83-82||Loss||-114||18 h 36 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Richmond -3
The Richmond Spiders should be a bigger favorite over James Madison Saturday. With three starters back, head coach Chris Mooney once again has an underrated squad. Richmond is off to a 7-2 start this season with its only losses coming on the road at Minnesota (10.5-point dog) and Ohio (7.5-point dog).
James Madison is just 3-5 on the season and should not be getting this much respect from oddsmakers. It has some ugly losses this season, including a 30-point loss to UCLA, a 22-point loss to North Dakota State, and an 18-point loss to Miami (Ohio). Its only wins have come against East Tennessee State, Winthrop and Youngstown State.
This play falls into a system that is 50-19 (72.5%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (RICHMOND) - off a road win, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a bad team (20% to 40%).
James Madison is 1-9 ATS versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. James Madison is 0-10 ATS in home games on Saturday games over the last 3 seasons. The Dukes are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games overall. Bet Richmond Saturday.
|12-08-12||Arkansas +16.5 v. Michigan||67-80||Win||100||11 h 37 m||Show|
15* Arkansas/Michigan CBS Saturday No-Brainer on Arkansas +16.5
The Arkansas Razorbacks are much improved in Mike Anderson's second year on the job. Sure, they are just 4-3 this season, but they have played a very tough schedule. They have already faced Syracuse, Wisconsin, Arizona State and Oklahoma. They didn't lose any of those four games by more than 15 points, and they lost by just 7 to Wisconsin and by 9 to Syracuse.
Michigan has a very good good team this season. However, they are overvalued due to their 8-0 start. They beat Pitt by 5, Kansas State by 14, NC State by 7 and Bradley by 8. If those four teams could stay within 16 points of the Wolverines, I have no doubt that Arkansas can as well.
This play falls into a system that is 58-25 (69.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (MICHIGAN) - after 8 or more consecutive wins, undefeated on the season.
This play falls into another system that is 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on underdogs of 10 to 19.5 points (ARKANSAS) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of >=45% on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 4 straight games making >=47% of their shots. Take Arkansas Saturday.
|12-06-12||Creighton v. Nebraska +7||64-42||Loss||-103||8 h 11 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Nebraska +7
The Nebraska Cornhuskers should not be an underdog at home to the Creighton Blue Jays tonight, let alone a 7-point dog. Creighton comes in way overvalued as the No. 16 team in the country, and they simply cannot live up to the expectations against the spread that they have created for themselves.
Nebraska is certainly one of the most underrated teams in the country. It is off to a 6-1 start this season that includes wins over Valparaiso, Wake Forest and USC. While the Huskers return just one starter, they have three veteran players leading this team. They are seniors Dylan Talley (15.6 PPG, 6.0 RPG) and Brandon Ubel (14.0 PPG, 6.9 RPG) as well as junior Ray Gallegos (14.0 PPG).
Home-court advantage has been huge in this in-state rivalry between Creighton and Nebraska. The home team has won seven straight meetings in this series. Creighton's last win at Nebraska came back in 2004 by a final of 50-48. This will be the first true road game for the Blue Jays all season, which is always tough.
The Bluejays are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Creighton is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 road games overall. Nebraska is 26-10 ATS in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game since 1997. Roll with Nebraska Thursday.
|12-05-12||Ohio v. Memphis -3.5||58-84||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday PLAY OF THE DAY on Memphis -3.5
The Memphis Tigers should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight over the Ohio Bobcats. I'll gladly take advantage of this line mistake and back the Tigers in what I believe will be a blowout in their favor by game's end.
Ohio is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers due to its 6-1 start. Its six wins have all come at home against lesser competition in Portland, UNC-Wilmington, Wofford, Hampton, Richmond and St. Bonaventure. Its lone loss came on the road by a final of 76-84 against Robert Morris.
Memphis has played a much tougher schedule, which is why it is off to just a 4-2 start this season. Its losses have both come on a neutral court to Minnesota and Virginia Commonwealth. It does have a solid neutral court victory over a very good Northern Iowa team.
Because of the tough schedule, the Tigers are certainly the more battle-tested team coming in, and they'll be more prepared for a quality team like Ohio because of it. The Bobcats will not be ready as this will be by far their toughest test of the season.
Memphis is 3-0 at home this season, winning by an average of 18.7 points/game. It is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games overall. The Tigers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Roll with Memphis Wednesday.
|12-04-12||Georgia +7 v. Georgia Tech||54-62||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Tuesday Undervalued Underdog on Georgia +7
The Georgia Bulldogs are undervalued heading into this contest with in-state rival Georgia Tech. They have played, by far, the tougher schedule between these two teams, which has them more battle-tested heading into this rivalry.
Georgia is just 2-5 this season, but three of its losses came on either a neutral court or on the road against the likes of Indiana, UCLA and South Florida. That tough early schedule will have it mentally prepared to face quality teams going forward.
The Yellow Jackets don't have a quality win yet this season, and they should not be favored by 7 points because of it. An 11-point loss to Cal and a 13-point loss to Illinois is more representative of where Georgia Tech is at right now. It has no business being favored by 7 points over what I believe is a better Georgia team.
Four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 7 points or less. Georgia Tech is 1-8 ATS in home games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons. Georgia is 29-13 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points since 1997. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Roll with Georgia Tuesday.
|12-01-12||Delaware +20 v. Duke||50-88||Loss||-110||4 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Delaware +20
The Duke Blue Devils are in a huge letdown spot here at home against the Delaware Blue Hens. They are coming off back-to-back wins over Top 5 teams in Louisville and Ohio State. There's no way the Blue Devils will be able to get up emotionally for this game after playing those two schools.
Delaware is one of the most underrated teams in the country. This is much better than a 2-5 team, but what matters is their 5-1 ATS record. They have yet to play a home game this season, and they have played some very good teams extremely tough on the road.
They lost at LaSalle 66-73 as a 7.5-point underdog, at Temple 75-80 as a 12-point underdog, and on a neutral court against Kansas State 63-66 as an 8.5-point dog. They also won at Virginia 59-53 as a 6-point dog. Only one of the Blue Hens' five losses has come by more than 7 points.
Duke's biggest margin of victory this season is 21 points, which came at home against Florida Gulf Coast. They also beat Georgia State at home by 19 points. I have no doubt that Delaware is better than both of those teams, thus they should be able to stay within 20 with no problem. You throw in the situation, and it's not even a question.
The Blue Devils are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 home games. Duke is 2-10 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Bet Delaware Saturday.
|11-30-12||GEORGIA v. SOUTH FLORIDA -3||53-64||Win||100||7 h 2 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on South Florida -3
The South Florida Bulls have been one of the most underrated teams in the country dating back to last season. They made the NCAA Tournament last season and were a covering machine down the stretch, especially at home.
The Bulls return four of their top five scorers from last season in F Toarlyn Fitzpatrick (13.0 PPG, 6.7 RPG), G Jawanza Poland (11.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG), G Anthony Collins (7.8 PPG, 8.2 APG) and F Victor Rudd (7.5 PPG, 7.3 RPG). With this nucleus, I would be shocked not to see South Florida in the Big Dance by season's end.
Georgia is just 2-4 this season with its only wins coming against Jacksonville and East Tennessee State at home. It is 0-2 away from home this season, but this will be its first true road game of the year.
The Bulldogs are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following a S.U. win. The Bulls are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 Friday games. South Florida is 10-2-2 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Take South Florida Friday.
|11-28-12||Tulsa +16 v. Wichita State||60-86||Loss||-110||8 h 16 m||Show|
15* CBB Wednesday ATS ANNIHILATOR on Tulsa +16
Wichita State is way overvalued heading into this home showdown with Tulsa Wednesday. The Shockers have opened the season 6-0, creating expectations for themselves that they cannot live up to.
This team lost its top five starters from a year ago and will not be as strong as last year's squad because of it. Wichita State really only has one good win this season with a 53-51 victory at VCU. Five of its six victories have come by 16 points or less.
I believe Tulsa, with new head coach Danny Manning, will easily be able to stay within 16 points of Wichita State. In fact, Tulsa is off to a 4-2 start this season with both losses coming by 16 points or less. Guard James Woodard has led the way with 17.2 points and 5.8 rebounds per game thus far.
This play falls into a system that is 28-9 (75.7%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet against favorites of 10 or more points (WICHITA ST) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.
Tulsa is 6-0 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games over the last 3 seasons. The Shockers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Each of the last six meetings in this series have been decided by 11 points or less. Roll with Tulsa Wednesday.
|11-27-12||North Carolina +10 v. Indiana||59-83||Loss||-109||10 h 43 m||Show|
15* UNC/Indiana ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on North Carolina +10
The Indiana Hoosiers are way overvalued tonight due to their 6-0 start straight up and their 5-1 mark against the spread. They are also the No. 1 ranked team in the country, which comes with expectations from oddsmakers and the betting public going forward that they cannot live up to.
Indiana has played an extremely soft schedule with games against Bryant, North Dakota State, Sam Houston State, Ball State, Georgia and Georgetown. The Hoyas took the Hoosiers to overtime on a neutral court, so this team is certainly beatable.
North Carolina is undervalued right now due to its 71-82 loss to Butler on a neutral court. The Bulldogs got hot and shot 47.2% from the field. The Tar Heels have not allowed another team to shoot better than 40% this season. They responded with a 112-70 victory over Chaminade last time out to get back on track.
"We tried to challenge them the last couple of days that we've got to play better than that," head coach Roy Williams said of the Tar Heels' trip to Maui where they finished third. "I haven't noticed the extra energy or the bounce because I've worked the dickens out of them."
Williams is a a perfect 7-0 ATS as a road underdog of 6.5 to 12 points as the coach of North Carolina. The Tar Heels are actually winning in this spot by an average score of 75.6 to 74.1. They are clearly undervalued heading into this one. Bet North Carolina Tuesday.
|11-27-12||Iowa v. Virginia Tech -1.5||79-95||Win||100||7 h 29 m||Show|
15* ACC/Big Ten Challenge Tuesday Line Mistake on Virginia Tech -1.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies should be a much bigger favorite at home tonight against the Iowa Hawkeyes in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. Iowa is simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going, while Virginia Tech is getting none.
The Hokies are going under the radar because they switched head coaches in the offseason. James Johnson is fully capable of turning around this program, and he's off to a good start. Johnson had guided Virginia Tech to a perfect 5-0 record thus far.
Virginia Tech returned three starters from last year's team, including leading scorer Erick Green (15.6 PPG), who scored nearly a quarter of the team's points last season (65.1 PPG). Also back are Jarell Eddie (9.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG) and Cadarian Rainers (5.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG). Green leads the team in scoring (24.4 PPG) while Eddie (18.8 PPG) is second thus far.
The Hawkeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games. Iowa is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games vs. ACC opponents. The Hawkeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. The Hokies are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take Virginia Tech Tuesday.
|11-25-12||West Virginia v. Oklahoma +2||70-77||Win||100||6 h 23 m||Show|
15* CBB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Oklahoma +2
The Oklahoma Sooners are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country this season. Lon Kruger is one of the most underrated head coaches in the business, and he'll turn this program around after winning just 15 games in his first year on the job last season.
Oklahoma is off to a great start with a 3-1 record and its only loss coming to Gonzaga. Kruger returned all five starters from last year's team, including three double-digit scorers in SG Steven Pledger (16.2 PPG), F, Romero Osby (12.9 PPG, 7.3 RPG) and F Andrew Fitzgerald (12.1 PPG, 5.0 RPG). Osby and Pledger are their No. 1 and No. 2 scorers this season, respectively.
West Virginia is clearly down this season with a 1-2 start that has featured a 34-point loss to Gonzaga and another loss to Davidson. The Mountaineers had to replace their two leading scorers from a year ago in Kevin Jones and Darryl Bryant, who combined for almost 37 PPG. They haven't been able to recover.
The Mountaineers are 20-44 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less since 1997. Bob Huggins is 12-26 ATS when the line if +3 to -3 as the coach of West Virginia. Huggins is 14-27 ATS when playing their 3rd game in a week as the coach of West Virginia. The Mountaineers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet Oklahoma Sunday.
|11-24-12||Columbia v. San Francisco||59-79||Win||100||11 h 49 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on San Francisco PK
San Francisco is 2-1 on the season with its only loss coming to Stanford 62-74 on a neutral court. This team has been a great bet at home throughout the years. Columbia is certainly overrated heading into this contest due to its 3-1 start. It's coming off a huge win at Villanova, and this is certainly a letdown spot after that victory.
The Dons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. San Francisco is 14-3-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall. The Dons are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games. San Francisco is 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bet San Francisco Saturday.
|11-21-12||Pittsburgh v. Michigan -2.5||62-67||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
15* Pitt/Michigan ESPN 2 Wednesday No-Brainer on Michigan -2.5
The Michigan Wolverines should be a much heavier favorite over the Pittsburgh Panthers in the NIT Tip Off Championship. Despite being the No. 4 team in the country, I believe the Wolverines aren't getting the respect they deserve in the early going from oddsmakers.
Michigan has won its first three games all by 30 points or more. The last time it did that it went on to win the National Championship in 1989. The Wolverines have returned three starters, including their two leading scorers in Trey Burke (14.8 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG). Burke is averaging 18.3 points while Hardaway Jr. is averaging 17.3 through three games.
Pittsburgh had a down season last year, and I have seen nothing from them to indicate that they will be improved this year. The Panthers lost two double-digit scorers from last season and they are raw this year. Sure, they are 4-0 on the season, but all four of those wins came at home against weak competition. They even needed to rally from 18 points down to beat Oakland in overtime last time out despite coming into the game as a 21-point favorite.
The Wolverines are 32-14-1 ATS in their last 47 games overall. Pittsburgh is 0-7 ATS after 3 straight games outrebounding opponent by 6 or more over the last 2 seasons. Michigan is 22-9-1 ATS in its last 32 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. The Panthers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Roll with Michigan Wednesday.
|11-20-12||Indiana v. Georgetown +9.5||82-72||Loss||-106||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* Indiana/Georgetown CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Georgetown +9.5
The Georgetown Hoyas showed what they were capable of yesterday by topping No. 11 UCLA 78-70 as a 6.5-point underdog. Its balance was on display as four players scored at least 11 points in this one, led by 23 points from Markel Starks. The Hoyas shot 54.5% as a team to improve to 3-0 on the season.
Indiana is the No. 1 team in the country right now, and with that ranking comes expectations from oddsmakers that it simply cannot live up to. That was evident yesterday in a 66-53 win over Georgia as a 21-point favorite. This will be by far the Hoosiers' toughest test of the year, and I cannot see them winning by double-digits.
The Hoyas are 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 non-conference games. Georgetown is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. Indiana is 5-15-1 ATS in its last 21 neutral site games. The Hoosiers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS loss. Roll with Georgetown Tuesday.
|11-19-12||New Mexico -2 v. Connecticut||66-60||Win||100||10 h 5 m||Show|
15* New Mexico/UConn CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on New Mexico -2
The UConn Huskies are way overvalued early in the season due to their 4-0 start. Three of those wins have come by 6 points or less and this team is not as good as its record would indicate. The Huskies only brought back one starter this season.
I believe New Mexico is every bit as good as its 3-0 record with three wins against quality teams in Davidson, Illinois-Chicago and George Mason. The Lobos returned three starters from last season, including Tony Snell (19.7 PPG) and Kendall Williams (18.0 PPG), who are their two leading scorers.
The biggest reason I'm fading the Huskies tonight is the fact that they played in a double-overtime game yesterday against Quinnipiac, winning by a final of 89-83. There's no question that UConn will be the more tired team, especially because they're not very deep with such little experience returning.
The Lobos are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games overall. New Mexico is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a S.U. win. The Huskies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Bet New Mexico Monday.
|11-18-12||Richmond +10.5 v. Minnesota||57-72||Loss||-105||6 h 28 m||Show|
15* CBB PLAY OF THE DAY on Richmond +10.5
The Richmond Spiders are showing solid value as a double-digit underdog today to the Minnesota Golden Gophers. Richmond is off to a 3-0 start with three wins by double-digits. This team is for real.
This play falls into a system that is 27-7 (79.4%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on home favorites of 10 or more points (MINNESOTA) - very good defensive team - shooting pct defense of <=39% on the season, after a game - allowing a shooting pct. of 28% or less.
Minnesota is 6-16 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. The Spiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games. Richmond is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 non-conference games. Bet Richmond Sunday.
|11-17-12||Davidson v. Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5||68-73||Win||100||10 h 54 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +7.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee has returned three starters from last season, including F James Haarsma (10.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG). The good news about that is three new starters in Jordan Aaron (20.0 PPG), Lyle Kelm (10.0 PPG) and Thierno Niang (10.0 PPG) are leading the team in scoring through two games.
The Panthers have opened 1-1 with their only loss coming at South Carolina by a final of 75-82. I'd say that's a pretty good loss as they hung with a BCS school. Davidson also has an 81-86 loss at New Mexico, and I simply believe that this team is way overvalued as a big road favorite Saturday.
The Wildcats are 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 road games. Davidson is 5-14 ATS as a road favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 0-6 ATS n road games after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are in home games after playing a road game over the last 3 seasons. Roll with Wisconsin-Milwaukee Saturday.
|11-16-12||Notre Dame -3 v. St. Joseph's||70-79||Loss||-110||19 h 17 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -3
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish should be a much bigger favorite tonight against the St. Joseph's Hawks. Both teams return five starters, but there's no question that the No. 21 Fighting Irish are the more talented team, and that will show on the court tonight.
Remember, this is a Notre Dame team that went 13-5 in Big East play last season to finish 3rd in the conference. Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) is one of the Big East's premier bigs, coming off an uber-efficient campaign in which he made 62.5% of his field goals and swatted 1.6 shots per game.
But the backcourt figures to be just as dangerous led by Jerian Grant (12.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) and Eric Atkins (12.1 PPG, 4.1 APG). Both are strong passers and shooters, who should have no problem making this offense flow alongside 6-foot-8 swingman Scott Martin (9.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG). He is a matchup nightmare with a guard's skillset and a forward's body.
The Fighting Irish are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a S.U. win. Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games vs. Atlantic 10 opponents. The Hawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Take Notre Dame Friday.
|11-16-12||Wake Forest +10.5 v. Connecticut||71-77||Win||100||16 h 51 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday Undervalued Underdog on Wake Forest +10.5
Connecticut is way overvalued heading into this neutral court contest with Wake Forest tonight due to its 2-0 start that includes wins over Michigan State and Vermont. Now is a great time to fade this team considering they are getting some hype.
The Huskies are not going to be as strong this season as they have been in year's past, plain and simple. Former head coach Jim Calhoun retired, and he did not leave new head coach Kevin Ollie with much talent. The Huskies return just one starter, lose Jeremy Lamb and Andre Drummond to the NBA, and Alex Oriakhi has transferred.
Wake Forest went just 4-12 in ACC play last year, and it heads into the 2012-13 campaign undervalued because of it. The Demon Deacons should be much improved because they return their top two scorers from last season in C.J. Harris (16.7 PPG) and Travis McKie (16.1 PPG, 7.0 RPG). Six different players scored in double figures in a 79-67 win over Radford in their opener, so this team has some nice balance to go along with studs Harris and McKie.
UConn is 25-47 ATS in road games off a home win by 10 points or more since 1997. It is only winning in this spot by an average of 3.1 points/game. Look for this one to go right down to the wire with a possible upset by the Demon Deacons. Bet Wake Forest Friday.
|11-14-12||Wisconsin v. Florida -6||56-74||Win||100||7 h 11 m||Show|
15* Wisconsin/Florida ESPN 2 ATS ANNIHILATOR on Florida -6
The Florida Gators are one of the most talented teams in the country this season. They are ranked inside the Top 10 for good reason, and that will show on the floor tonight as they crush the Wisconsin Badgers at home.
The Gators return three starters from a team that made it to the Elite Eight last year. They are leading scorer Kenny Boynton (15.9 PPG, 3.0 3-pointers), Erik Murphy (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and Patric Young (10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG).
Florida led 47-9 at halftime in its opener and cruised to an 84-35 victory over Alabama State. Boynton finished with 22 points, five assists and six rebounds. Murphy hit three 3's and scored 15 points, while Young added 12 points and 12 rebounds with two blocks.
Wisconsin has lost starting point guard Josh Gasser to a season-ending knee injury. That's huge because it already had to replace leading scorer Jordan Taylor (14.8 PPG) from last season. Teams that struggle at the point guard position don't usually fare well. Take Florida Wednesday.
|11-13-12||Kentucky v. Duke -3||68-75||Win||100||10 h 34 m||Show|
15* Kentucky/Duke ESPN Tuesday No-Brainer on Duke -3
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Duke returns four starters from a team that averaged 77.3 points/game last season. The key to this season's team will be senior forward Mason Plumlee, who chose not to enter the NBA Draft after a season in which he averaged nearly a double-double (11.1 PPG, 9.2 RPG). He is joined in the frontcourt by senior Ryan Kelly, who can stretch defenses as a long-range shooter (41% threes).
The backcourt is led by senior Seth Curry, but with Austin Rivers gone, he has returned to his more natural position off the ball, where he thrives with a better than 40% three-point stroke in his Duke career.
Kentucky barely squeaked by Maryland 72-69 in its opener, and it is an underdog for a good reason here. The Wildcats are 4-13-1 ATS in their last 18 non-conference games. Kentucky is 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 vs. ACC foes. Take Duke Tuesday.
|11-12-12||West Virginia +11 v. Gonzaga||50-84||Loss||-107||12 h 15 m||Show|
15* WVU/Gonzaga ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on West Virginia +11
The West Virginia Mountaineers are a much stronger team than they are getting credit for heading into the 2012-13 campaign, which will be their first season in the Big 12. They should not be a double-digit underdog tonight to the overrated Gonzaga Bulldogs.
The Mountaineers return three starters from a team that went 9-9 in the Big East last season and made the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore Gary Browne (6.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.0 APG) should be prepared to take a big step up in the backcourt. PF Deniz Kilici (10.7 PPG, 5.3 RPG) is their best returning player.
After sitting out a year, Dayton transfer Juwan Staten will be a big factor at guard. Kilici will be joined in the frontcourt by La Salle transfer Aaric Murray, who at 6-foot-10 is a shot-blocking force (143 blocks over two college season) who can also step out and hit jumpers, averaging 13.7 PPG and making 36% of his threes at La Salle.
West Virginia wants payback from a 77-54 loss to Gonzaga in the NCAA Tournament. There's no question that the Mountaineers have been thinking about this game all offseason for a chance at revenge. They'll definitely want this one more tonight. Take West Virginia Monday.
|11-10-12||Evansville v. Notre Dame -14||49-58||Loss||-110||3 h 37 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Notre Dame -14
Mike Brey is counting on Jack Cooley (12.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) to lead a squad that returns all five starters and added 6-10 Michigan State transfer Garrick Sherman and freshmen forwards Cameron Biedscheid and Zach Auguste. The other returning starters are guards Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins, who both averaged more than 12 points a game last season, sixth-year player Scott Martin and Pat Connaughton.
This is a team that should have no problem rolling by 15-plus against the overmatched Evansville Purple Aces. Bet Notre Dame Saturday.
|11-09-12||Maryland Terrapins +11.5 v. Kentucky||69-72||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
15* Maryland/Kentucky CBB Season Opener on Maryland +11.5
The Kentucky Wildcats are way over-hyped coming into the season. They won the National Championship last year, and now they have a TV show about them on ESPN heading into the 2012-13 campaign. They can't live up to the hype, and that will be reflected against the point spreads early in the season.
Kentucky loses all five starters from last season. Sure, John Calipari is an excellent recruiter, but you just don't replace the five guys they lost. They will have to replace 92 percent of last year's offense with another freshman class.
"I like our talent. I like our size. I like our length. We have some guys with pretty good speed," Calipari said. "We're just not a good basketball team right now. Too many young guys that we're trying to bring along."
Several key players return for Maryland. They are 7-foot-1 sophomore center Alex Len, 6-8 senior forward James Padgett and guards Pe'Shon Howard and Nick Faust. With Len, Padgett, and highly touted freshmen Shaquille Cleare (6-9, 262 pounds) and Charles Mitchell (6-8, 260) rotating in the frontcourt, the Terrapins expect to control the boards against most teams. Both Cleare and Mitchell were Top 100 recruits.
I just like the veteran experience on this team up against the inexperienced, over-hyped Wildcats in the first game of the season. This one should go right down to the wire as the Terrapins easily stay within double-digits. Roll with Maryland Friday.
|04-02-12||Kansas v. Kentucky -6.5||Top||59-67||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
20* Kansas/Kentucky NCAA Championship No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5
I like the Kentucky Wildcats to roll tonight over the Kansas Jayhawks. Kentucky has been the best team in the country all year, and they'll cap it off with a win and cover tonight to give head coach John Calipari his first championship.
Kansas is very fortunate to be here having won three times by 3 points or less in the NCAA Tournament. Meanwhile, Kentucky has stormed through the field with five victories all by 8 points or more, and four by 12 points or more.
These teams faced each other back on November 15th earlier this season on a neutral court. Kentucky won that game 75-65 despite going just 16-of-29 (55.2 percent) from the free throw line and committing a whopping 19 turnovers. They had a sub-par performance and still won by 10 points.
Kansas is 6-15 ATS in road games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 18-36 ATS after 5 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. The Wildcats are 8-2 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season. Bet Kentucky Monday.
|03-31-12||Ohio State -2.5 v. Kansas||Top||62-64||Loss||-104||125 h 49 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Ohio State -2.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are favored for a reason here against the Kansas Jayhawks. While these are two No. 2 seeds battling it out for a spot in the National Championship, I have no doubt that the Buckeyes are the superior team. That will show on the floor Saturday night.
Ohio State has played the more difficult schedule to get here, and they've been more impressive in doing so. They beat Loyola-MD (78-59), underrated Gonzaga (73-66), red hot Cincinnati (81-66) and top-seeded Syracuse (77-70) to reach this point. The Buckeyes got here in pretty convincing fashion to say the least.
For starters, Kansas essentially played home games in their first four contests. They played their first two in Omaha, Nebraska, beating Detroit 65-50 before squeaking by Purdue 63-60. They played their next two games in St. Louis, Missouri, topping NC State 60-57 before using a 12-0 run over the final few minutes to beat North Carolina 80-67. Oh yeah, the Tar Heels were playing without the nation's leader in assists in Kendall Marshall.
Ohio State matches up with Kansas very well. They have the best on-ball defender in the country in Aaron Craft (8.8 points, 4.7 assists, 2.5 steals) to slow down KU's Tyshawn Taylor, who is 0-for-17 from three-point range in the NCAA Tournament. Jared Sullinger (17.6 points, 9.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.0 blocks) against Thomas Robinson (17.7 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 0.9 blocks) is essentially a wash, though I would take Sullinger myself.
Kansas did beat Ohio State at home 78-67 in their lone meeting this season, but Sullinger sat out that game with back spasms. Having Sullinger this time around is going to make all the difference. Robinson scored 21 points in that game only because Sullinger was not on the floor to help defend him.
Plus, KU does not have an answer for Deshaun Thomas (16.1 points) and William Buford (14.4 points). Buford put up 21 points in their first meeting, and Thomas added 19 points. These two mismatches that are hugely in Ohio State's favor are likely going to be the difference in why the Buckeyes move on.
The Jayhawks are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 vs. Big Ten opponents. The Buckeyes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games as a favorite. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. Kansas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-31-12||Louisville +9 v. Kentucky||Top||61-69||Win||100||122 h 49 m||Show|
20* Louisville/Kentucky Final Four No-Brainer on Louisville +9
The Louisville Cardinals are simply catching too many points against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Final Four Saturday. While John Calipari is the better recruiter with more talent on the floor, he's not the better coach. I'll back Rick Pitino with this much time to prepare almost every single time.
Pitino and the Cardinals actually have an extra day to get ready for Kentucky. Louisville played last Saturday, while Kentucky played on Sunday. I have no doubt that Pitino will use his time to prepare to come up with a better game plan than Calipari will.
Louisville has been on an absolute tear since finally getting healthy. They won four games in four days to win the Big East Tournament, beating three NCAA Tournament teams along the way. They then won four straight games in the big dance to get here, including a 57-44 victory over top-seeded Michigan State.
These teams played once already this season back on December 31st. Louisville came in as a 10-point underdog at Kentucky, yet only lost 62-69 while covering that huge number. That was back when the Cardinals weren't healthy, with guys playing through injury, while missing other players. Now healthy, and on a neutral court this time around, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to pull off this upset.
In that game back on December 31st, the Cardinals used their press to near perfection. Louisville limited Kentucky to 17-of-57 shooting (29.8 percent) for the game, including 3-of-16 (18.8 percent) from 3-point range. The Cardinals only shot 20-of-62 (32.3 percent) themselves, but this game was won at the free throw line. Louisville simply fouled too much, and Kentucky took advantage by making a whopping 32-of-43 from the free throw line. That allowed the Wildcats to overcome their 20 turnovers.
Look for the Cardinals to be smarter about the fouls this time around, while continuing to keep the Wildcats out of rhythm offensively. Louisville is 6-0 ATS in road games versus good rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 4+ per game this season. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. Louisville is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These three trends make for a perfect 22-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.
|03-27-12||Massachusetts +2.5 v. Stanford||Top||64-74||Loss||-101||8 h 34 m||Show|
20* NIT Final Four PLAY OF THE DAY on Massachusetts +2.5
The Massachusetts Minutemen have been the most impressive team in the NIT to this point. I don't think there's any way they should be an underdog to the Stanford Cardinal in this one. UMass is going to have a solid home-court advantage, though they haven't needed it to get here.
UMass has pulled off three straight upsets on the road to get to Madison Square Garden. The Minutemen won 101-96 at Mississippi State as a 7-point dog, 77-67 at Seton Hall as a 6.5-point dog, and 72-70 at Drexel as a 7.5-point dog. They had to come back from a huge deficit against Drexel, and that comeback win has this team believing they won't be denied.
Stanford has had a much easier path to get here. The Cardinals have won three straight home games against Cleveland State, Illinois State and Nevada. I don't believe one of those teams is as good as any of the three teams that UMass has faced.They even needed overtime to beat Illinois State. Stanford is 17-3 at home this season, but just 5-6 on the road. The Cardinal won't be playing with nearly as much confidence knowing that they'll essentially be the road team in this one.
The Minutemen are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. UMass is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games. Stanford is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Cardinal are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. Bet Massachusetts Tuesday.
|03-26-12||Pittsburgh v. Washington State +1||66-67||Win||100||10 h 7 m||Show|
15* Pitt/WSU CBI Tournament Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State +1
Both the Pittsburgh Panthers and Washington State Cougars have played very well to reach the CBI Tournament Championship Series. Both have won three games in a row to get here, but I have been more impressed with Washington State's path. Game 1 of this Best of 3 series will be played on the Cougars' home floor tonight.
Washington State has had to go on the road to pick up two very impressive wins as underdogs to get here. The Cougars opened with an 89-75 victory at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog. They would beat Wyoming 61-41 at home as a 2-point favorite before going on the road and knocking off Oregon State 72-55 as a 6.5-point underdog. As you can see, they have won each game by 14-plus points.
Pittsburgh opened with two very easy opponents at home with a 81-63 victory over Wofford followed by a 82-61 triumph over Princeton. They did beat Butler 68-62 on the road in their last game, but the Bulldogs are way down this season as it has been a rebuilding year for them. I believe Pittsburgh meets its match tonight in Washington State.
The Cougars are 11-4 at home, while the Panthers are just 4-8 in true road games this year. Washington State is 10-2 ATS in home games after playing a game as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, winning in this spot by an average of 14.4 points/game. The Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. Roll with Washington State Monday.
|03-25-12||Kansas v. North Carolina +2||80-67||Loss||-110||8 h 9 m||Show|
15* Kansas/UNC Elite Eight No-Brainer on North Carolina +2
The UNC Tar Heels get the nod Sunday as an underdog to the Kansas Jayhawks. Even without Kendall Marshall, I believe the Tar Heels are the better team here and it will show on the court today.
Kansas' biggest strength is their inside game with Thomas Robinson. UNC has a better post game than Kansas with the likes of Tyler Zeller and John Henson. These two are an unstoppable force inside.
The Jayhawks are now 2-11 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. Kansas is 4-12 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season. Kansas is 2-10 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. The Jayhawks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Take UNC Sunday.
|03-25-12||Baylor +8 v. Kentucky||Top||70-82||Loss||-110||5 h 25 m||Show|
20* Baylor/Kentucky Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Baylor +8
The Baylor Bears are showing great value here Sunday. This is actually a great match-up for them. Baylor is usually the most athletic team when they take the court. Kentucky is the only team in the country that rivals Baylor's athleticism.
Look for the Bears to give the Wildcats all they can handle here. They have been one of the best teams in the tournament with wins over South Dakota State, Colorado and Xavier. I fully expect them to stay within eight points of the Wildcats in this one.
The Bears are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Baylor is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5. Kentucky is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 non-conference games. Bet Baylor Sunday.
|03-24-12||Ohio State -2.5 v. Syracuse||Top||77-70||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
20* Ohio State/Syracuse Elite Eight PLAY OF THE DAY on Ohio State -2.5
Ohio State is a match-up nightmare for Syracuse. With Fab Melo suspended for the entire NCAA Tournament, the Orange have nobody who can guard Jared Sullinger. He's in line for a monster games as the Buckeyes march on to the Final Four.
Syracuse is 2-9 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. The loss of Fab Melo hasn't hurt them yet in the tournament, but they're finally against a team where his loss will be felt.
The Orange are 0-6 ATS in a neutral court game where the total is 135 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons. Syracuse is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Bet Ohio State Saturday.
|03-24-12||Florida v. Louisville +1.5||68-72||Win||100||6 h 55 m||Show|
15* Louisville/Florida Elite Eight No-Brainer on Louisville +1.5
The Louisville Cardinals should not be an underdog to the seventh-seeded Cardinals. Louisville is showing excellent value here Saturday in a game I believe they'll win outright. Florida has had a nice run, but they run into a buzz saw this afternoon.
Few teams in the country are playing as well as Louisville. This team was beat up all season with injuries, but they finally got healthy towards the end of the year and started to play up to their potential. As a result, they won the Big East Tournament and have won seven straight coming in.
Louisville is 7-0 ATS in all neutral court games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS after having won 15 or more of their last 20 games this season. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Louisville is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. These four trends make for a 28-0 system backing the Cardinals. Take Louisville Saturday.
|03-23-12||NC State +8 v. Kansas||Top||57-60||Win||100||105 h 42 m||Show|
20* NC State/Kansas Sweet 16 Late-Night BAILOUT on NC State +8
The NC State Wolfpack are one of the most underrated teams left in the field. They have been playing for their NCAA Tournament lives since a 77-73 victory over Miami back on February 29th. This team won their final two games of the regular season, then won two games in the ACC Tournament to solidify their spot in the big dance.
What impressed me more than anything was NC State's 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament semifinals. That loss showed that the Wolfpack could play with anyone. After beating San Diego State and Georgetown in the first two rounds of the big dance, they are now 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
Kansas needed some fortunate breaks down the stretch of their last game just to make it to the Sweet 16. Despite coming in as an 8-point underdog, Purdue gave the Jayhawks all they could handle. Kansas eventually prevailed 63-60. That close win, coupled with a 72-81 loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Tournament, shows their vulnerability. Asking the Jayhawks to cover 8 points is simply asking too much here.
NC State is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Wolfpack are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. NC State is 7-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. These five trends make for a perfect 31-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Bet NC State Friday.
|03-23-12||Ohio +10.5 v. North Carolina||65-73||Win||100||102 h 52 m||Show|
15* Ohio/UNC Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Ohio +10.5
The Ohio Bobcats have been the biggest surprise in the tournament thus far. It shouldn't come as too big of a surprise though considering how well this team played early in the year. Ohio opened 12-1 with their only loss coming at then-No. 7 Louisville by a final of 54-59. While they are a No. 13 seed, this team is playing more like one of the top seeds in the tournament.
Ohio features two stud guards in D.J. Cooper (14.9 points, 5.7 assists, 2.3 steals) and Walter Offutt (12.0 points, 1.6 steals) who can carry this team. Cooper has scored 40 points and Offutt has put up 32 in two NCAA Tournament games. The Bobcats will actually have the advantage at the guard positions in this game due to the health of UNC point guard Kendall Marshall.
Marshall, the nation's leading assist man, suffered a fractured wrist in UNC's victory over Creighton last round. While it's possible he may play, it is very unlikely. Even if he does go, Marshall will not be at 100% and will likely be hurting his team by being out there.
Freshman Stilman White (4.3 minutes per game) and senior Justin Watts (only two stints at point guard this season) would be first in line to replace Marshall as UNC
|03-22-12||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Ohio State||66-81||Loss||-105||80 h 52 m||Show|
15* Sweet 16 Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Cincinnati +7.5
There is no team that I have been riding more lately than the Cincinnati Bearcats. Somehow, some way this team continues to go under the radar. The Bearcats have been a determined, focused bunch ever since their ugly brawl with Xavier back in December. They are the sleeper of the 16 teams left in the big dance.
Cincinnati got their momentum for the NCAA Tournament by making it all the way to the Big East Championship, knocking off the likes of Georgetown and Syracuse along the way. They carried that momentum over into the NCAA Tournament with wins over Texas and Florida State in their first two games.
What I really like about this team is the way that they are set up. They have exactly what it takes to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats have three stud guards in Sean Kilpatrick (14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.4 steals), Dion Dixon (13.1 points, 1.6 steals), and Cashmere Wright (10.7 points, 4.6 assists, 2.1 steals).
I have no doubt in my mind that the Bearcats have the better guards in this match-up with Ohio State. What also makes this a great match-up for Cincinnati is the fact that they have a center who can contain Jared Sullinger of the Buckeyes. Yancy Gates (12.4 points, 9.1 rebounds) has been playing at a very high level for weeks, and he'll hold his own against Sullinger.
The Bearcats are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. Cincinnati is 8-1 ATS in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games this season. The Buckeyes are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite. Roll with Cincinnati Thursday.
|03-22-12||Wisconsin v. Syracuse -4||Top||63-64||Loss||-107||77 h 23 m||Show|
25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Syracuse -4
The Syracuse Orange should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Wisconsin Badgers. This team has been undervalued ever since it was stated that Fab Melo would be ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. They showed against Kansas State in the Round of 32 that they could be just as dominant as they have been all season.
The Orange throttled the Wildcats 75-59, making 51.1 percent of their shots while limiting K-State to just 31.3 percent shooting. Syracuse (33-2) certainly doesn't get the respect that every other No. 1 seed gets. That's evident by the fact that all the other No. 1 seeds are at least a 7-point favorite in this round.
There's a reason why Bo Ryan and his Wisconsin Badgers rarely ever make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. That's because they have to win ugly to win at all. That style rarely works against top-notch teams like Syracuse, who can push the pace and control the tempo with their athleticism. The Orange are scoring 10.5 more points/game than Wisconsin, and their athleticism will overwhelm the Badgers in this one.
Syracuse is 26-9 ATS in road games after game - where they allowed a shooting pct. of 33% or less since 1997. The Orange are 28-13 ATS in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making >=72% of their attempts after 15+ games since 1997. Syracuse is 41-16 ATS in road games after allowing 25 points or less in the first half last game since 1997. Bet the Orange Thursday.
|03-21-12||Nevada +7 v. Stanford||Top||56-84||Loss||-110||11 h 31 m||Show|
20* Nevada/Stanford NIT PLAY OF THE DAY on Nevada +7
The Nevada Wolf Pack are showing great value tonight as a 7-point underdog to the Stanford Cardinal. This team has not been getting much respect all season despite their 28-6 record. I believe they have a great chance of winning this game outright, let alone covering seven points.
Nevada was definitely a sleeper coming into the season as they returned five starters from last year. This experienced bunch would love nothing more than a trip to Madison Square Garden to play in the NIT semifinals, which is what's at stake tonight.
Nevada has looked like a team on a mission in their first two NIT games. They won at Oral Robers 68-59 as a 6.5-point underdog, then took care of a very good Bucknell team 75-67 at home as a 3.5-point favorite. They now face a Stanford team that was shaky last round in their 92-88 home victory over Illinois State as a 8.5-point favorite.
Nevada is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a road underdog this season. The Wolf Pack are actually outscoring their opposition 73.9 to 67.8 in this spot. Nevada is 9-0 ATS in road games after 3 straight games where opponent grabbed 31 or less rebounds since 1997. Stanford is in home games after a combined score of 155 points or more over the last 3 seasons. These three trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Wolf Pack. Bet Nevada Wednesday.
|03-20-12||Massachusetts +6.5 v. Drexel||Top||72-70||Win||100||10 h 42 m||Show|
25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on Massachusetts +6.5
UMass is showing great value tonight as a 6.5-point underdog to Drexel in the NIT. This team has saved their best basketball for this tournament, and I would not be surprised one bit to see them pull off yet another upset Tuesday.
The Minutemen were one of the NCAA Tournament snubs this season as they came from one of the most underrated conferences in the country in the Atlantic 10. They currently sit at 24-11 on the season after winning at Mississippi State 101-96 as a 7-point underdog and at Seton Hall 77-67 as a 6.5-point underdog in the first two rounds.
Drexel has an amazing record at 29-6, but the fact of the matter is that they played in one of the worst conferences in the country in the Colonial Athletic. They barely beat Northern Iowa 65-63 at home as a 7-point favorite in their last game to advance to this point. The Dragons are not as good as their record would indicate.
Common opponents is a great way to compare teams. When doing so, I find that UMass and Drexel have played three of the same teams this season. UMass went 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS against those teams, outscoring them by 11.0 points/game. Drexel went 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS against those teams, outscoring them by 10.8 points/game. One of those teams was Towson (1-31), who Drexel got to play twice an outscored them by an average of 20.5 points/game.
The Minutemen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. CAA foes. UMass is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Minutemen are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog of 6.5 to 9 points. Drexel is 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games after a close win by 3 points or less. Bet UMass Tuesday.
|03-19-12||Wyoming v. Washington State -2.5||Top||41-61||Win||100||11 h 10 m||Show|
20* Wyoming/Washington St. CBI Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State -2.5
The Washington State Cougars are showing great value today as a small home favorite over the Wyoming Cowboys. I like their chances in this CBI Tournament against a Wyoming team that comes from a weak Mountain West Conference.
Wyoming somewhat showed that they didn't want to be here in this CBI Tournament as they barely beat North Dakota State 78-75 despite being a 9.5-point favorite. It was one of their most sloppy games of the season as they committed 17 turnovers and only forced 9.
Meanwhile, Washington State put together one of their most impressive wins of the season in the opening round. The Cougars won 89-75 at San Francisco as a 5.5-point underdog to show that they want to be playing in this tournament.
Washington State is a very solid 10-4 at home this season, while Wyoming is just 5-8 in true road games. The Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games. The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Pac-12 foes. Wyoming is 9-25 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 75 points or more since 1997. Bet Washington State Monday.
|03-18-12||Cincinnati +3 v. Florida State||Top||62-56||Win||100||15 h 50 m||Show|
20* Cincinnati/FSU CBB Late-Night BAILOUT on Cincinnati +3
I have been riding the Cincinnati Bearcats for a while now as they continue to go under the radar. They are undervalued once again Sunday against a Florida State team that should not be favored.
Cincinnati is rolling, winners of five of their last six. They made the championship game of the Big East Tournament before losing to Louisville. This team has everything you need to make a run in the tournament. They have three stud guards and a beast of a center in Yancy Gates.
The Bearcats are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. FSU is 4-10 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as a favorite. Bet Cincinnati Sunday.
|03-18-12||NC State +4.5 v. Georgetown||66-63||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
15* NC State/Georgetown Early ANNIHILATOR on NC State +4.5
The NC State Wolfpack have saved their best basketball for last. This is a scary team and one that could definitely make a deep run. I don't believe Georgetown should be favored in a game that I see the Wolfpack winning outright.
NC State has won five of their last six games. They knocked off Boston College and Virginia in the ACC Tournament, two games they really had to have to get off the bubble and into the Big Dance. Even more impressive is their 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the semifinals, proving they can play with anyone.
NC State is 9-1 ATS in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game this season. The Wolfpack are 6-0 ATS in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season. Take NC State Sunday.
|03-17-12||New Mexico v. Louisville -1||56-59||Win||100||19 h 21 m||Show|
15* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Louisville -1
New Mexico is a joke. They had a nice season, but they are getting way too much respect in the NCAA Tournament. The Cardinals are on of the most underrated teams in the big dance. It will show on the floor Saturday.
Louisville has won five straight games. They won four in four days to win the Big East Tournament, then took care of an underrated Davidson team 69-62 in their first game of the big dance. Now they get New Mexico, and they'll be ready to advance against a team that has been overrated all year.
Louisville is 9-2 ATS when playing with one or less days rest over the last 2 seasons. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Louisville is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. Bet Louisville.
|03-17-12||Iowa State +11 v. Kentucky||Top||71-87||Loss||-100||17 h 26 m||Show|
20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Iowa State +11
I've been on Iowa State all season. Somehow, this team continues to go under the radar. They got screwed on getting a No. 8 seed to say the least. ISU finished 3rd in the Big 12 during the regular season. The Big 12 was named the second-best conference in the country. ISU has been using all this as motivation all along.
I would not be surprised to see ISU beat Kentucky, but I'll take the points for some insurance. ISU is as talented as the Wildcats, who have been overrated for weeks. The Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games, and 2-7 ATS in their last nine games.
Iowa State is 9-1 ATS vs. dominant rebounding teams - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game over the last 2 seasons. Kentucky is 8-15 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Iowa State is 10-1 ATS on Saturday games this season. Kentucky is 4-16 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|03-16-12||Detroit +14.5 v. Kansas||50-65||Loss||-105||45 h 25 m||Show|
15* Detroit/Kansas Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Detroit +14.5
I've seen the Detroit Titans play a few times this year, and they certainly pass the eye test. While Kansas is a quality team, this isn't as talented of a Jayhawks' team as we've seen in the past. Detroit will give Kansas a run for their money tonight.
The Titans were unbeatable down the stretch, winning five straight and 10 of their last 11 coming in. They capped their season off with an emphatic 70-50 victory over Valparaiso in the Horizon League Championship. After watching that game, I believe the Titans can play with anyone.
Detroit is a very balanced team with five players averaging in double figures scoring. They are also one of the most athletic teams in the country, and you'll see them playing above the rim against the Jayhawks. The Titans are led by coach's son Ray McCallum, a sophomore point guard who leads the team in points (15.6), assists (3.9) and steals (1.5). He is their leader despite being just a sophomore.
After seeing Detroit's athleticism, oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, which isn't good news for Kansas. The Jayhawks are just 1-9 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season. The Titans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater. Take Detroit Friday.
|03-16-12||NC State -2 v. San Diego St||79-65||Win||100||36 h 50 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on NC State -2
The NC State Wolfpack are a dangerous team entering the 2012 NCAA Tournament. Despite being a No. 11 seed, I wouldn't be surprised to see this team in the Sweet 16. They have saved their best basketball for last, and I have them knocking off San Diego State Friday.
This spread tells it all. NC State is the 11-seed while SDSU is the 6-seed, yet the Wolfpack are actually favored. They are favored here for a good reason as they are simply the better team. SDSU had a good season, but they didn't play near the competition that NC State did.
NC State was playing in elimination games ever since a 77-73 win over Miami on February 29th. This team needed to keep winning to make the NCAA Tournament, and that's exactly what they did. The Wolfpack would win four straight over Miami, VA Tech, Boston College and Virginia before a 67-69 loss to North Carolina in the ACC semifinals. That defeat showed they could play with anyone.
The Wolfpack are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. NC State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. NC State is 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The Wolfpack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. NC State is 6-0 ATS in road games after having won 2 of their last 3 games this season. These five trends make for a 23-0 system backing the Wolfpack. Roll with NC State Friday.
|03-16-12||Texas v. Cincinnati -2||Top||59-65||Win||100||35 h 26 m||Show|
25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Cincinnati -2
The Cincinnati Bearcats represent my favorite play for the Round of 64 games. This is a team that I believe is coming into the NCAA Tournament way under the radar, and I would not be surprised to see them make a deep run.
The Bearcats got into an ugly Brawl with Xavier on December 10th, and they have been a completely different team ever since. Cincinnati went on to win seven straight and 10 of their next 11 after that incident.
Cincinnati showed very well in the Big East tournament, beating both Georgetown and Syracuse before losing to Louisville in the championship game. All three of those teams have a 4 seed or better in the NCAA Tournament. Cincinnati can play with anyone as they have three stud guards, and a playmaker at center in Yancy Gates.
Texas was lucky to even get into the NCAA Tournament with a 20-13 record. I actually believe they don't belong. The Longhorns are a very inexperienced team as they returned zero starters from last season. They are too reliant upon freshman, and as a result it's going to be one and done for them.
The Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. The Bearcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite. Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in their last six games overall. These three trends make for a 16-2 (89%) system backing the Bearcats. Bet Cincinnati Friday.
|03-15-12||Colorado +5.5 v. UNLV||Top||68-64||Win||100||22 h 42 m||Show|
20* Colorado/UNLV Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on Colorado +5.5
The Colorado Buffaloes have been underrated all season. I like their chances of pulling off the upset tonight against UNLV in the Round of 64. The Buffaloes won the Pac-12 Tournament by winning four games in four days, and they now come in with a lot of momentum.
UNLV went just 4-4 down the stretch, and they have clearly been overrated since making a splash early in the season in non-conference play. The Runnin' Rebels are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Their failure against the spread just shows how overvalued this team has been.
The Buffaloes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 neutral site games as an underdog. Colorado is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games. UNLV is 0-6 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. Bet Colorado Thursday.
|03-15-12||Colorado St v. Murray State -4.5||41-58||Win||100||11 h 27 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Early ANNIHILATOR on Murray State -4.5
Murray State is a team that continues to get no respect from oddsmakers. They should be a much heavier favorite today over Colorado State, a team that doesn't even belong in the NCAA Tournament. Murray State certainly belongs with a 30-1 record, and they should have been given a better seed.
I look for the Racers to come out on a mission to prove their doubters wrong. They don't get the love they deserve simply because they play in the Ohio Valley. But Murray State has beaten four NCAA Tournament teams in Southern Miss, Western Kentucky, Memphis and St. Mary's. This team is the real deal.
Murray State is 9-1 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games this season. The Racers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Murray State is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 non conference games. These three trends make for a 20-1 (95%) system backing the Racers. Take Murray State Thursday.
|03-14-12||South Florida +3 v. California||Top||65-54||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
25* NCAA Tournament Play-In GAME OF THE YEAR on South Florida +3
The South Florida Bulls have been underrated all season. That hasn't changed in the NCAA Tournament as they should not have had to play a play-in game. USF will continue proving their doubters wrong by "upsetting" California tonight.
I believe the Bulls should be favored in this one. USF put together a 20-13 campaign this season, including a very impressive 12-6 mark in Big East play. They have recently beaten Cincinnati and won at Louisville, two very good NCAA Tournament teams.
California played in one of the weakest conferences in the country this season. The Bears arguably should not have gotten into the big dance after losing three of their final four games, including a bad 59-70 setback against Colorado in the Pac-12 Tournament.
The Bulls are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 Wednesday games. USF is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. Cal is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. These four trends make for a 24-3 (89%) system backing the Bulls. Bet South Florida Wednesday.
|03-13-12||Dayton v. Iowa -4.5||75-84||Win||100||8 h 1 m||Show|
15* NIT Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Iowa -4.5
The Iowa Hawkeyes are certainly happy to be playing in the NIT with a 17-16 record. Dayton is a team at 20-12 that was on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament, and they certainly did not want to be playing in the NIT. With the Hawkeyes more motivated tonight, I believe they run away with this one.
Iowa went a respectable 8-10 in Big Ten play this season, which was labeled the best conference in the country. That included two wins over Wisconsin, along with home victories over Michigan and Indiana, which are three teams that will be playing in the Big Dance. The Hawkeyes went 13-6 at home this season, while the Flyers went just 6-8 on the road.
Iowa is 8-0 ATS after allowing 85 points or more over the last 2 seasons. The Hawkeyes are 9-1 ATS in home games after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Dayton is 0-6 ATS versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. These three trends make for a 23-1 (96%) system backing the Hawkeyes. Take Iowa Tuesday.
|03-13-12||Mississippi Valley State v. Western Kentucky -3||Top||58-59||Loss||-110||7 h 17 m||Show|
20* NCAA Tournament First Round BLOWOUT on Western Kentucky -3
Western Kentucky did not have a great regular season, but they got hot at the right time and now will be a dangerous opponent going forward. I have them making easy work of Mississippi Valley State in this one. MVS is a quality team, but they aren't on the same level as the Hilltoppers.
WKU is a perfect 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. They won four straight games by five points or less in the Sun Belt Conference Tournament to be crown champs. This team is playing with a ton of confidence right now, and there's no question that if this game is close down the stretch, they will have what it takes to pull it off.
Mississippi Valley State plays in one of the easiest conference in the country. Their true colors showed early in the non-conference slate as MVS opened 1-11 through their first 12 games with their lone win coming 90-89 over Tennessee State. They haven't played another NCAA Tournament team since that 1-11 start.
Western Kentucky is 24-9 ATS in their last 33 neutral site games. MVS is 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site games. WKU is 6-0 ATS in thier last 6 NCAA Tournament games. The Hilltoppers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. WKU is 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall. These last four trends make for a perfect 24-0 system backing the Hilltoppers. Bet Western Kentucky Tuesday.
|03-10-12||NC State +9 v. North Carolina||Top||67-69||Win||100||9 h 48 m||Show|
20* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on NC State +9
NC State is primed to pull off the upset over rival North Carolina Saturday. This team is playing their best basketball down the stretch, winners of three straight to likely play their way into the NCAA Tournament.
UNC head coach Roy Williams hasn't been shy about the fact that he doesn't care about results in the ACC Tournament. His players know it, too, which sets them up for a huge letdown spot here.
NC State wants revenge from two regular season losses to the Tar Heels. They'll clearly be the more motivated team heading into this one because of it.
The Wolfpack are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games. The Wolfpack are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. NC State is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Bet NC State Saturday.
|03-09-12||Dayton v. Xavier -2.5||Top||69-70||Loss||-109||12 h 37 m||Show|
25* Atlantic 10 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Xavier -2.5
It's now or never for the Xavier Musketeers, who are squarely on the bubble in terms of making the NCAA Tournament. If they don't win this game tonight, then there chances of making it are slim to none.
I like backing teams like Xavier who have a lot to play for because you know they are going to be giving their best effort to try and get a win. Xavier is 25-11 in their last 36 meetings with Dayton, so they have certainly owned this series.
Dayton is 7-21 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 against the spread since 1997. Bet Xavier Friday.
|03-09-12||Cincinnati +7.5 v. Syracuse||71-68||Win||100||10 h 36 m||Show|
15* Cincinnati/Syracuse ESPN Big East No-Brainer on Cincinnati +7.5
The Cincinnati Bearcats have simply been rolling since their brawl against Xavier earlier this season. This is a team that has the potential to beat anyone. They are not only dangerous in the Big East Tournament, they will also be a sleeper in the NCAA Tournament as well.
Syracuse is certainly overvalued right now due to their 31-1 record. Oddsmakers are forced to set them as a big favorite every time they hit the court simply because of that record. That provides us with ample value to pull the trigger on the Bearcats tonight.
The Orange are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, so that just shows how overvalued this team is right now. Cincinnati is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games, and they have won eight of their last 10 games overall. Take Cincinnati Friday.
|03-08-12||Texas v. Iowa State||Top||71-65||Loss||-110||12 h 5 m||Show|
25* Big 12 Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State PK
The Iowa State Cyclones have been a huge money-maker for me all season. I'm going to continue riding them at a great price in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament. Somehow, some way this team continues going under the radar. They are once again undervalued in this showdown with Texas.
Iowa State is 22-9 on the season, including 12-6 in Big 12 action. They will be playing in the NCAA Tournament, but would certainly like to improve their seeding with a deep run in this Big 12 Tournament. ISU is 18-8 ATS in all games this year, including a superb 14-3 ATS in conference games. They have been underrated all year.
Unlike ISU, Texas has been overrated all season. The Longhorns are 19-12 on the year, including a woeful 9-17 ATS. Texas is 9-9 in Big 12 play, and 6-12 ATS in those 18 contests. This team still gets respect from oddsmakers because they are "Texas", but they don't deserve it. This is a very young team that won't be able to handle the pressure of this situation. Texas almost certainly needs a win to make the NCAA Tournament, but I do not believe they have what it takes.
Iowa State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven March games. Texas is 0-6 ATS in their last six versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game this season. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These three trends make for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Thursday.
|03-08-12||Georgia Tech v. Miami Fla -6.5||36-54||Win||100||11 h 59 m||Show|
15* ACC Tournament PLAY OF THE DAY on Miami -6.5
The Miami Hurricanes need this win to help their chances of making the NCAA Tournament. With a loss Thursday, the Hurricanes would almost certainly be on the outside looking in in terms of the Big Dance. I believe they have what it takes to not only win this game, but to win it by double-digits.
Georgia Tech is in a four-way tie for the worst record in the ACC this season at 4-12. The Yellow Jackets are just 11-19 on the season, and they simply aren't even in the same class as Miami. That was evident when these teams met at Georgia Tech on January 24th in their lone meeting of the season. Miami ran away with that game 64-49 as a 2-point favorite.
I like the Hurricanes (18-11) to be able to put a similar beat down on the Yellow Jackets on a neutral court this time around. They shot 48.1 percent from the field while limiting Georgia Tech to just 35.7 percent shooting in that victory. Miami was outrebounded and shot only three free throws, yet still won by 15 points.
Georgia Tech is 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins this season. Head coach Brian Gregory is 3-20 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing <=12 turnovers/game in all games he has coached since 1997. The Hurricanes are 24-9-1 ATS in their last 34 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Miami is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 neutral site games. Take Miami Thursday.
|03-07-12||Texas A&M +1.5 v. Oklahoma||Top||62-53||Win||100||9 h 57 m||Show|
20* Big 12 Tournament No-Brainer on Texas A&M +1.5
Texas A&M is certainly one of the biggest sleepers heading into the Big 12 Tournament. This team is a lot more talented than the No. 9 seed they have been given. The Aggies battled injuries all season, but they have finally started to get healthy here down the stretch.
Starting F Khris Middleton (12.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and starting PG Dash Harris (6.0 PPG, 4.3 APG) have each missed time due to injury. Both players are back and healthy and making key contributions. Also, Kourtney Roberson (4.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG) played in the first nine games of the season before missing the last 21. He could return tonight and is listed as day-to-day.
Oklahoma just beat Texas A&M 65-62 only four days ago in Norman. I like the Aggies to get their revenge in the Big 12 Tournament and to finally live up to the expectations that were put on them at the start of the season. Remember, this was a team that was supposed to contend for a Big 12 title. Now healthy, they can be that team.
The Sooners are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997. Oklahoma is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Sooners are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in road games after 3 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons. The Aggies are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings with the Sooners. These four trends make for a 27-0 system backing the Aggies. Bet Texas A&M Wednesday.
|03-06-12||Detroit v. Valparaiso -2.5||70-50||Loss||-101||11 h 19 m||Show|
15* Horizon League Championship No-Brainer on Valparaiso -2.5
The Valparaiso Crusaders are clearly the better team in this match-up with the Detroit Titans. This will be a home game for the Crusaders as it will be played in Valparaiso, IN, which only further enhances their chances of taking down the Horizon League title tonight.
Valparaiso is 22-10 on the season and 15-4 in conference play. Detroit isn't far behind at 21-13 and 14-7 in conference play, but the fact of the matter is that they are behind. The Titans are just 8-9 on the road this season, while the Crusaders are 14-2 at home and outscoring opponents by 11.3 points/game.
There's no question it is tough to beat a team three times in the same season, but I believe the Crusaders will be up to the task tonight. They won both regular season meetings with Detroit by narrow margins of 78-73 at home and 73-71 on the road. Valpo shot 50.0 percent or better in both games, so they certainly know how to pick apart this Detroit defense.
Valpo is 6-0 ATS in home games after covering 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons. The Titans are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Valpo is a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Detroit. Roll with Valparaiso Tuesday.
|03-06-12||Western Kentucky v. North Texas -2||Top||74-70||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on North Texas -2
The North Texas Mean Green are clearly the better team in this match-up and I look for them to run away with the Sun Belt Conference championship tonight with a blowout victory over Western Kentucky. This one shouldn't even be close folks.
WKU has put together a magical run with three straight victories in this conference tournament all by 5 points or less. Playing their 4th game in 4 days, the Hilltoppers simply won't have enough left in the tank to pull off another upset. You have to remember that WKU is still just 14-18 on the season.
North Texas has also made the championship with some close victories along the way. But this will be just the 3rd game in 3 days for the Mean Green as they had a first-round bye. They will be the fresher team and they own an 18-13 record on the season.
The biggest indication that North Texas is the better team comes from the fact that they beat Western Kentucky 84-67 in their lone meeting this season. The Mean Green shot 56.4 percent from the floor while limiting the Hilltoppers to just 34.6 percent shooting in that January 12th home victory.
North Texas is a perfect 8-0 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games this season. They are winning by 8.8 points/game in this situation. The Mean Green are 22-7-2 ATS in their last 31 games overall. North Texas is 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 neutral site games. Bet North Texas Tuesday.
|03-05-12||Miami Ohio v. Toledo -2||Top||53-60||Win||100||8 h 10 m||Show|
20* CBB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Toledo -2
The Toledo Rockets should be a much bigger favorite tonight over the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks in the opening round of the MAC Tournament. They clearly have the better team this year as evident by their 16-15 record compared to the 9-20 mark of the Redhawks.
This is a home game for Toledo, where they have been dominant all season. The Rockets are 10-7 at home while outscoring opponents by 8.8 points/game. They come into this conference tournament with some momentum after winning five of their final six regular sason games.
Miami (Ohio) is simply overvalued in this spot. The Redhawks are 2-13 on the road this season where they are scoring a mere 59.7 points/game. These teams have already squared off once this season with Toledo winning 63-61 on the road as an 8.5-point favorite. I like their chances of winning by 3-plus points at home this time around.
The Rockets are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a home favorite of 0.5-6.5. Toledo is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Rockets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Toledo is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Miami (Ohio) leading scorer and rebounder Julian Mavunga (16.6 PPG, 9.1 RPG) is questionable with a heel injury. Bet Toledo Monday.
|03-04-12||Ohio State +3.5 v. Michigan State||72-70||Win||100||7 h 43 m||Show|
15* Big Ten GAME OF THE DAY on Ohio State +3.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes are one of the top four teams in the country in my opinion. Any time you can get them as an underdog, you better take advantage. Jared Sullinger and company want revenge from a home loss to Michigan State in their first meeting.
It's safe to say that the Buckeyes are going to be more motivated for this game than any other game of the season with the Big Ten title on the line. A motivated Ohio State team is a very dangerous one to say the least.
The Buckeyes are 16-4 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite since 1997. The Spartans are 1-11 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997, failing to cover the spread 92% of the time in this situation. Bet the Buckeyes Sunday.
|03-03-12||North Carolina -2 v. Duke||88-70||Win||100||11 h 51 m||Show|
15* UNC/Duke ESPN Saturday No-Brainer on North Carolina -2
North Carolina wants serious payback from their heartbreaking 85-84 home loss to Duke in their first meeting. The Tar Heels blew a double-digit lead late and had to watch Austin Rivers' 3-point attempt sail through the net for the game-winner at the buzzer. It's safe to say that UNC will be laying it all on the line to get revenge tonight.
While these teams have identical 26-4 records, there's no question in my mind that UNC is the better team. They are favored for a reason here tonight. UNC has reeled off six straight wins since that loss, including four by double-digits. They are 5-1 ATS during this stretch.
Duke has been a little shaky since that win, winning six straight as well, but four of those came by single-digits. The Blue Devils were nearly beaten by both Virginia Tech and NC State in their last two home games.
Duke is 1-9 ATS in a home game where the total is 150 to 159.5 over the last 2 seasons. The Blue Devils are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games. The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Tar Heels are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Duke. Roll with North Carolina Saturday.
|03-03-12||Baylor v. Iowa State -1.5||Top||72-80||Win||100||11 h 52 m||Show|
25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa State -1.5
Iowa State has been one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball this season. I've been riding them all year with a lot of success, and it's only fitting that I would make the Cyclones my 25* CBB GAME OF THE YEAR Saturday. I am more confident in them to cover the spread today than in any other game they have played all season.
That's saying a lot because the Cyclones have been a covering machine this year. Iowa State is 21-9 SU & 17-8 ATS in all games. They have been terrific at home, and this is going to be a rowdy home crowd for Senior Night. Iowa State is 15-2 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 9.8 points/game. That includes a 7-1 home record in conference play with their only loss to Missouri.
Unlike Iowa State, Baylor is one of the most overrated teams in the land. They played a soft early schedule and have really not been that impressive in conference action when things got tougher. Baylor did beat Iowa State by 15 points at home in their first meeting, but it was an off night for the Cyclones. The Bears shot 60.0 percent from the floor in that game, and they aren't about to come close to hitting that high of a percentage on the road this time around. It's revenge time for the Cyclones.
Iowa State is 6-0 ATS in home games after a game giving up 5 or less offensive rebounds over the last 3 seasons. The Cyclones are 6-0 ATS in March games over the last 3 seasons. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games. The Cyclones are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Iowa State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home meetings with Baylor.
The home team is a perfect 12-0 SU in the last 12 meetings in this series. Iowa State has won seven straight at home over Baylor dating back to 1997. Basically, the Cyclones just have to win this game to cover. Add that 12-0 trend to the previous seven trends unbeaten trends and we have a perfect 49-0 system backing the Cyclones. Bet Iowa State Saturday.
|03-03-12||Vanderbilt v. Tennessee +2||61-68||Win||100||8 h 51 m||Show|
15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Tennessee +2
Tennessee has quietly been playing their best basketball of the season here recently. The Volunteers should not be a home underdog on Senior Day against the Vanderbilt Commodores. This is one of their biggest rivals, which only adds more fuel to the fire.
The Vols are 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS in their last eight games overall. This stretch includes impressive road wins over Florida, South Carolina and LSU. They have put themselves in position to be at least a borderline NCAA Tournament team.
The home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. The Vols are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. Tennessee is 8-0 ATS after playing a game as a road underdog this season. The Vols are 7-0 ATS after having won 3 of their last 4 games this season. These last two trends make for a perfect 15-0 system backing the Vols. Take Tennessee Saturday.
|03-03-12||Georgetown v. Marquette -4||69-83||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
15* Big East PLAY OF THE DAY on Marquette -4
Marquette is one of the best teams in the country that nobody really talks about. On Senior Day in front of a rowdy home crowd, I like the Eagles to beat Georgetown by 5-plus points tonight to get the win and cover.
The Eagles are 24-6 this season. They have been virtually unstoppable at home, going 14-1 while outscoring opponents by 16.8 points/game. Five of Georgetown's six losses have come on the road this season, so they'll certainly have their hands full.
Marquette will be motivated for Senior Day, but they will also be hungry to revenge a 73-70 road loss to Georgetown in their first meeting on January 4th. The Hoyas shot 62.8 percent from the floor in that game, yet still only won by 3 points! There's no way in hell they shoot that well again.
Marquette will also be motivated from a bad loss at Cincinnati last time out, which has clearly helped keep this spread lower than it really should be. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss. Marquette is 41-20-1 ATS in their last 62 vs. Big East opponents. Bet Marquette Saturday.
|03-02-12||Northern Iowa -2.5 v. Illinois St||42-54||Loss||-101||4 h 14 m||Show|
15* CBB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Northern Iowa -2.5
Northern Iowa is one of the best teams in the Missouri Valley Conference that nobody talks about. If there's one team that is going to upset Creighton and/or Wichita State to win this MVC tournament and advance to the Big Dance, it's certainly the Panthers.
I like UNI quite a bit this afternoon as a mere 2.5-point favorite over Illinois State. Northern Iowa is 19-12 on the season and they come into this tournament with some momentum after beating Bradley and Southern Illinois in back-to-back games to end the season.
When you look at the regular season meetings between these teams, it's clear that Northern Iowa is the better squad. UNI beat Illinois State 78-63 at home, but lost to them by a narrow margin of 61-65 on the road. Illinois State only has four wins away from home all season and this one will be played on a neutral court.
Northern Iowa is 10-1 ATS versus teams who make 8 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. Illinois State is 0-7 ATS versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as a favorite. The Redbirds are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. These four trends make for a 30-1 (97%) system backing the Panthers. Roll with Northern Iowa Friday.
|03-01-12||Utah +17 v. Oregon State||67-77||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
15* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on Utah +17
The Utah Utes are way undervalued late in the season due to their poor 6-22 record. While Oregon State has a better record at 15-13 this season, the Beavers have no business being favored this heavily tonight.
Utah has played much better of late. The Utes have covered in five straight games, including an impressive 58-57 home victory over Stanford as a 12-point underdog last time out. I had Utah as my 25* Pac-12 GAME OF THE YEAR in that contest, so this team has certainly been on my radar. They haven't lost any of their last five games by more than 14 points.
Oregon State has packed it in. The Beavers are 0-5 in their last five games overall, failing to cover the spread in all five. That includes home losses to Washington, Washington State, and Oregon during this stretch. After a 1-point loss to their biggest rivals last time out in the Ducks, they will have a hard time getting motivated to face Utah tonight.
Utah is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Utes are 7-0 ATS after 2 or more consecutive unders this season. Utah is 6-0 ATS revenging a loss vs opponent this season, only losing by 7.2 points/game in this spot. The Beavers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. These four trends make for a perfect 23-0 system backing the Utes. Roll with Utah Thursday.
|02-29-12||Maryland Terrapins +18.5 v. North Carolina||64-88||Loss||-115||9 h 19 m||Show|
15* Maryland/UNC ESPN Wednesday No-Brainer on Maryland +18.5
The Maryland Terrapins look to shock the work Wednesday when they travel to Chapel Hill to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels. I have no doubt the Terrapins can make a game out of this as they'll be more jacked up for this game than any other game of the season.
The Terrapins still have an outside shot at making the NCAA Tournament. They play UNC tonight and then Virginia next, so those two wins would certainly look great on a resume. Maryland will be laying it all on the line tonight as they look to revenge a 74-83 home loss to the Tar Heels in their first meeting this season on February 4th.
UNC is in a huge letdown spot tonight. The Tar Heels will travel to face Duke on Saturday with the ACC title at stake no matter what happens in this game. That is one of the best rivalries in all of sports, so there's no question it's going to be tough for UNC not to overlook Maryland. They will overlook the Terrapins just enough to allow them to cover this inflated number.
The Terrapins are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Maryland is 36-17-3 ATS in their last 56 Wednesday games. The Terrapins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings with the Tar Heels. They haven't lost to North Carolina by more than 17 in any of those seven contests. Take Maryland Wednesday.